Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

DOE PAGES

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth; ...

2014-11-02

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

2012-12-01

In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

2016-01-01

We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

Combating Climate Change through Quality Education. Policy Brief 2010-03

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Allison

2010-01-01

Climate change threatens to undo and even reverse the progress made toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and poses one of the most serious challenges to reducing global poverty for the international community. However, the education sector offers a currently untapped opportunity to combat climate change. There is a clear…

Global Climatic Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

1989-01-01

Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient cro...

Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

PubMed

Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

2016-08-01

Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015.

PubMed

2016-02-01

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The Panels provide a detailed assessment report every four years. The most recent 2014 Quadrennial Assessment by the EEAP was published as a special issue of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). The next Quadrennial Assessment will be published in 2018/2019. In the interim, the EEAP generally produces an annual update or progress report of the relevant scientific findings. The present progress report for 2015 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change.

Communicating the Connection between Climate Change and Heat Health

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Explore how public health and environmental professionals can effectively communicate and leverage the connections among climate change, the heat island effect, and public health to raise awareness among the public and to promote progress on these issues.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

PubMed

Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: Progress report, 2016

EPA Science Inventory

When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable...

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2000-01-01

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

2017-08-01

Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Mid­west. Climate change impacts in the United States: The third national climate assessment

Treesearch

Sara C. Pryor; Donald Scavia; Charles Downer; Marc Gaden; Louis Iverson; Rolf Nordstrom; Jonathan Patz; G. Phillip Robertson

2014-01-01

In the next few decades, longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels will increase yields of some crops, though those benefits will be progressively offset by extreme weather events. Though adaptation options can reduce some of the detrimental effects, in the long term, the combined stresses associated with climate change are expected to decrease...

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

PubMed Central

Smith, Jason A.

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

Climate change impacts on global food security.

PubMed

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015

EPA Science Inventory

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, bi...

CONSEQUENCES OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MAIZE YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. (R824996)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Progress, Exponential Growth and Post-Growth Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irwin, Ruth

2017-01-01

Teleological progress is the underlying motif of modern culture, and informs education, innovation, and economic development. Progress includes a gradual increase in consumerism. Since the 1940s, the Keynesian Settlement and its embedded belief in progress is legislated in exponential 2-3% economic growth. Unfortunately, climate change is a direct…

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

[Research progress in water use efficiency of plants under global climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Qing-wei; Yu, Da-pao; Dai, Li-min; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Wang-ming; Qi, Guang; Qi, Lin; Ye, Yu-jing

2010-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most concerned environmental problems in the world since the 1980s, giving significant effects on the plant productivity and the water transport and use patterns. These effects would be reflected in the water use efficiency (WUE) of individual plants, communities, and ecosystems, and ultimately, in the vegetation distribution pattern, species composition, and ecosystem structure. To study the WUE of plants would help to the understanding and forecasting of the responses of terrestrial vegetation to global climate change, and to the adoption of adaptive strategies. This paper introduced the concept of plant WUE and the corresponding measurement techniques at the scales of leaf, individual plant, community, and ecosystem, and reviewed the research progress in the effects of important climatic factors such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation pattern, nitrogen deposition, and their combination on the plant WUE, as well as the variation characteristics of plant WUE and the adaptive survival strategies of plants under different site conditions. Some problems related to plant WUE research were pointed out, and the future research directions in the context of global climate change were prospected.

Energy, Transportation, Air Quality, Climate Change, Health Nexus: Sustainable Energy is Good for Our Health.

PubMed

Erickson, Larry E; Jennings, Merrisa

2017-01-01

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has the potential to improve air quality and human health by encouraging the electrification of transportation and a transition from coal to sustainable energy. There will be human health benefits from reducing combustion emissions in all parts of the world. Solar powered charging infrastructure for electric vehicles adds renewable energy to generate electricity, shaded parking, and a needed charging infrastructure for electric vehicles that will reduce range anxiety. The costs of wind power, solar panels, and batteries are falling because of technological progress, magnitude of commercial activity, production experience, and competition associated with new trillion dollar markets. These energy and transportation transitions can have a very positive impact on health. The energy, transportation, air quality, climate change, health nexus may benefit from additional progress in developing solar powered charging infrastructure.

Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

2009-01-01

Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects

PubMed Central

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; Edwards, David; Sharma, Rishu; Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Blakeney, Michael; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cakir, Mehmet; Cseke, Leland J.; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; De Pace, Ciro; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ellison, Shelby; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony; Hori, Kiyosumi; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike W.; Iorizzo, Massimo; Ismail, Abdelbagi M.; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T.; Ogbonnaya, Francis C.; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H.; Simon, Philipp W.; Tohme, Joe; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Yano, Masahiro; Prasad, Manoj

2015-01-01

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful in enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security. PMID:26322050

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects.

PubMed

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; Edwards, David; Sharma, Rishu; Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Blakeney, Michael; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cakir, Mehmet; Cseke, Leland J; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; De Pace, Ciro; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ellison, Shelby; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony; Hori, Kiyosumi; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike W; Iorizzo, Massimo; Ismail, Abdelbagi M; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Simon, Philipp W; Tohme, Joe; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Wullschleger, Stan D; Yano, Masahiro; Prasad, Manoj

2015-01-01

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful in enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

USGCRP assessments: Meeting the challenges of climate and global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickinson, T.; Kuperberg, J. M.

2016-12-01

The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies. Its mission is to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated Federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. USGCRP has supported several initiatives to promote better understanding of climate change impacts on health, support responses, and build on the progress of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Most recently, USGCRP released a new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment". This presentation will provide an overview of USGCRP, highlight the importance of assessments, and introduce ways in which assessment findings and underlying data can be translated into critical tools to build resilience.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

PubMed

Watts, Nick; Adger, W Neil; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Bai, Yuqi; Byass, Peter; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Colbourn, Tim; Cox, Peter; Davies, Michael; Depledge, Michael; Depoux, Anneliese; Dominguez-Salas, Paula; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Flahault, Antoine; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Johnson, Anne; Kelman, Ilan; Kovats, Sari; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Morrissey, Karyn; Murray, Kris; Neville, Tara; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Parthemore, Christine; Pencheon, David; Robinson, Elizabeth; Schütte, Stefanie; Shumake-Guillemot, Joy; Vineis, Paolo; Wilkinson, Paul; Wheeler, Nicola; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony

2017-03-18

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

PubMed Central

Franks, Steven J; Weber, Jennifer J; Aitken, Sally N

2014-01-01

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change. PMID:24454552

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

PubMed Central

Meehl, Gerald A.

2017-01-01

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483866

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

PubMed

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

PubMed

Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

2014-08-01

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

PubMed Central

Nhamo, Godwell

2016-01-01

The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs), address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.

Energy, Transportation, Air Quality, Climate Change, Health Nexus: Sustainable Energy is Good for Our Health

PubMed Central

Erickson, Larry E.; Jennings, Merrisa

2017-01-01

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has the potential to improve air quality and human health by encouraging the electrification of transportation and a transition from coal to sustainable energy. There will be human health benefits from reducing combustion emissions in all parts of the world. Solar powered charging infrastructure for electric vehicles adds renewable energy to generate electricity, shaded parking, and a needed charging infrastructure for electric vehicles that will reduce range anxiety. The costs of wind power, solar panels, and batteries are falling because of technological progress, magnitude of commercial activity, production experience, and competition associated with new trillion dollar markets. These energy and transportation transitions can have a very positive impact on health. The energy, transportation, air quality, climate change, health nexus may benefit from additional progress in developing solar powered charging infrastructure. PMID:29922702

Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

2004-12-01

Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate research symposium (MTNCLIM), the first to be held in spring 2005; developing a strategy for climate-monitoring in WNA; installing and networking high-elevation (>3000m) climate-monitoring stations; and completing three target regions (Glacier National Park, MT; Sierra Nevada and White Mountains, CA) of the international GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) plant-monitoring project, the first in WNA. CIRMOUNT emphasizes integration at the regional scale in WNA, collaborating with and complementing projects such as the Western Mountain Initiative, whose mandate is more targeted than CIRMOUNT's, and global programs such as GLORIA and the international Mountain Research Initiative. Achievement of continuing success in WNA hinges on the capacity to secure long-term funding and institutional investment. (1) See associated URL for paper and poster pdfs (2) Discussing the future of western U.S. mountains, climate change, and ecosystems. EOS 31 August 2004, 85(35), p. 329

Cleaner cooking solutions to achieve health, climate, and economic cobenefits.

PubMed

Anenberg, Susan C; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Jetter, James; Masera, Omar; Mehta, Sumi; Moss, Jacob; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2013-05-07

Nearly half the world's population must rely on solid fuels such as biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural residues, and animal dung) and coal for household energy, burning them in inefficient open fires and stoves with inadequate ventilation. Household solid fuel combustion is associated with four million premature deaths annually; contributes to forest degradation, loss of habitat and biodiversity, and climate change; and hinders social and economic progress as women and children spend hours every day collecting fuel. Several recent studies, as well as key emerging national and international efforts, are making progress toward enabling wide-scale household adoption of cleaner and more efficient stoves and fuels. While significant challenges remain, these efforts offer considerable promise to save lives, improve forest sustainability, slow climate change, and empower women around the world.

[Effects of climate change on forest soil organic carbon storage: a review].

PubMed

Zhou, Xiao-yu; Zhang, Cheng-yi; Guo, Guang-fen

2010-07-01

Forest soil organic carbon is an important component of global carbon cycle, and the changes of its accumulation and decomposition directly affect terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and global carbon balance. Climate change would affect the photosynthesis of forest vegetation and the decomposition and transformation of forest soil organic carbon, and further, affect the storage and dynamics of organic carbon in forest soils. Temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and other climatic factors all have important influences on the forest soil organic carbon storage. Understanding the effects of climate change on this storage is helpful to the scientific management of forest carbon sink, and to the feasible options for climate change mitigation. This paper summarized the research progress about the distribution of organic carbon storage in forest soils, and the effects of elevated temperature, precipitation change, and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on this storage, with the further research subjects discussed.

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E.

2017-01-01

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E

2017-08-16

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolin, B.

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: Progress and prospects

DOE PAGES

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamiliarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; ...

2015-08-11

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful inmore » enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.« less

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: Progress and prospects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamiliarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful inmore » enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.« less

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Observational Constraints on Cloud Feedbacks: The Role of Active Satellite Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winker, David; Chepfer, Helene; Noel, Vincent; Cai, Xia

2017-11-01

Cloud profiling from active lidar and radar in the A-train satellite constellation has significantly advanced our understanding of clouds and their role in the climate system. Nevertheless, the response of clouds to a warming climate remains one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change and for the development of adaptions to change. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. We review recent progress in our understanding of the cloud feedback problem. Capabilities and advantages of active sensors for observing clouds are discussed, along with the importance of active sensors for deriving constraints on cloud feedbacks as an essential component of a global climate observing system.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?

PubMed

HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harsch, Melanie A; Ettinger, Ailene K; Ford, Kevin R; Theobald, Elinore J

2013-09-01

Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Narasimha D.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Riahi, Keywan; Bosetti, Valentina

2017-12-01

As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments.

ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND ITS INTERACTIONS WITH CLIMATE CHANGE: PROGRESS REPORT 2004

EPA Science Inventory

The measures needed for the protection of the Earth's ozone layer are decided regularly by the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. This progress report is the 2004 update by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel.

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices.

PubMed

Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B

2018-06-01

Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B.

2018-06-01

Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

36 CFR 219.12 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the.... Monitoring information should enable the responsible official to determine if a change in plan components or... relevant assumptions, tracking relevant changes, and measuring management effectiveness and progress toward...

36 CFR 219.12 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the.... Monitoring information should enable the responsible official to determine if a change in plan components or... relevant assumptions, tracking relevant changes, and measuring management effectiveness and progress toward...

36 CFR 219.12 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the.... Monitoring information should enable the responsible official to determine if a change in plan components or... relevant assumptions, tracking relevant changes, and measuring management effectiveness and progress toward...

Tertiary climatic change in the marginal northeastern Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Addicott, W.O.

1969-01-01

Analysis of distributional patterns of shallow-water molluscan faunas of the middle latitudes of the marginal northeastern Pacific Ocean discloses a sharp reversal during the Miocene of the progressive climatic deterioration. A low point in the Tertiary cooling trend during the Oligocene was followed by climatic warming that culminated during the middle Miocene, as illustrated by a series of zoogeographic profiles.

Tertiary climatic change in the marginal northeastern pacific ocean.

PubMed

Addicott, W O

1969-08-08

Analysis of distributional patterns of shallow-water molluscan faunas of the middle latitudes of the marginal northeastern Pacific Ocean discloses a sharp reversal during the Miocene of the progressive climatic deterioration. A low point in the Tertiary cooling trend during the Oligocene was followed by climatic warming that culminated during the middle Miocene, as illustrated by a series of zoogeographic profiles.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

PubMed

Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

2014-06-16

"How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.

Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

2017-11-01

The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

2014-12-01

To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

PubMed Central

Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

2015-01-01

Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning. PMID:28698518

Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana.

PubMed

Alhassan, Salley; Hadwen, Wade L

2017-07-10

Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.

Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipschultz, Fred

2011-01-01

Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

The challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maccracken, Michael C.

1992-01-01

Meeting the challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change involves three steps. First, observations of critical variables must be assembled, evaluated, and analyzed to determine that there has been a statistically significant change. Second, reliable theoretical (model) calculations must be conducted to provide a definitive set of changes for which to search. Third, a quantitative and statistically significant association must be made between the projected and observed changes to exclude the possibility that the changes are due to natural variability or other factors. This paper provides a qualitative overview of scientific progress in successfully fulfilling these three steps.

The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Progress and Next Steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidmiller, D.; Lewis, K.; Reeves, K.

2017-12-01

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandates the production of a quadrennial National Climate Assessment (NCA) that integrates, evaluates, and interprets global change science. The NCA analyzes observed and projected trends in global change and evaluates related impacts across a range of sectors and regions in the United States. The fourth assessment, NCA4, is currently under development by nearly 300 Federal and non-Federal experts and is expected to be available for public comment in Fall 2017 and released in late 2018. NCA4 is a key component of the US Global Change Research Program's Sustained Assessment process, which aims to advance the science of global change and provide authoritative, relevant information for decision makers. This talk will highlight the progress of NCA4, including an overview of the current draft of the assessment and advances since the third NCA, released in 2014. It will highlight the Climate Science Special Report, an essential component of NCA4, as well as provide insight into the public engagement process-including opportunities to participate-and identify scientific inputs and tools critical to its development, such as the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report and USGCRP's new scenario products website.

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

2016-01-01

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

Steps to overcome the North-South divide in research relevant to climate change policy and practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blicharska, Malgorzata; Smithers, Richard J.; Kuchler, Magdalena; Agrawal, Ganesh K.; Gutiérrez, José M.; Hassanali, Ahmed; Huq, Saleemul; Koller, Silvia H.; Marjit, Sugata; Mshinda, Hassan M.; Masjuki, Hj Hassan; Solomons, Noel W.; Staden, Johannes Van; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2017-01-01

A global North-South divide in research, and its negative consequences, has been highlighted in various scientific disciplines. Northern domination of science relevant to climate change policy and practice, and limited research led by Southern researchers in Southern countries, may hinder further development and implementation of global climate change agreements and nationally appropriate actions. Despite efforts to address the North-South divide, progress has been slow. In this Perspective, we illustrate the extent of the divide, review underlying issues and analyse their consequences for climate change policy development and implementation. We propose a set of practical steps in both Northern and Southern countries that a wide range of actors should take at global, regional and national scales to span the North-South divide, with examples of some actions already being implemented.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

Climate Change in the Arctic, Moving from Acceptance to Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinzman, L. D.

2009-12-01

In Alaska, we no longer discuss climate change using words such as “possible” or “potential”. It has arrived. There is ample evidence of impacts from a changing climate in Alaska, primarily due to the predominance of snow, ice and permafrost. The presence or absence of frozen ground or water will dominate the local ecology, hydrology, physical characteristics and surface energy balance. As the soil or ice progresses through thawing, threshold changes occur that may initiate a cascade of events resulting in substantial changes to the regional character. If one examines any individual scientific discipline, evidence of climate change in arctic regions offers only pieces of the puzzle. This presentation will include a broad array of evidence to provide a convincing case of change in the arctic climate and a system-wide response of terrestrial processes. The thermal regime of the Arctic holds unique characteristics and consequently will display marked changes in response to climate warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical systems proceeding from permanently frozen to periodically thawed. Dramatic changes also accompany biological systems adapting to an evolving environment. It is expected that the effects and consequences of a warming climate will become even more evident within the next 10 to 50 years so our society must now consider actions related to adaptation and preparation for change.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Caring for our natural assets: an ecosystem services perspective.

Treesearch

2007-01-01

Global attention to climate change has advanced an awareness of human impacts on the environment. Progressing more slowly is recognition of the critical link between forest ecosystems and human welfare. Forests provide a number of societal benefits or ecosystem services, such as water purification, climate and flood regulation, recreational opportunities, and spiritual...

SENSITIVITY OF WINTER WHEAT YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES TO FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND CO2 FERTILIZATION. (R824996)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases: Getting A Grip on Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, G. E.; Ellis, H.

2011-12-01

Pathogens that are transmitted by arthropods to humans kill millions of people a year and have long been identified as systems likely affected by climate change. Despite this, there has been a long controversy of how to evaluate the responses of these infectious disease systems to climatic conditions so that meaningful programmatic dcisions can be made. We briefly review the rationale for overall expectations, using them to identify both the temporal and spatial resolution needed for decision making and then discuss progress to date, using the world global malaria eradication program as an example.

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

Does Polar Research Matter? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, R.

2009-12-01

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing humanity. The polar regions are being disproportionately impacted, particularly in the Arctic where warming is greatly amplified. Moreover, there are strong feedbacks from the polar regions to the global climate system and sea level, so changes at the poles have global ramifications. Not surprisingly, polar research is often justified because of its relevance to global climate change. In spite of this, where are the “solutions” in the polar regions? For example, a scientist interested in climate change who studies tropical forests can work toward preserving the forests since deforestation is one of the main contributors to anthropogenic climate change. Are there similar direct solutions in polar regions? I will suggest that the answer is no, since the human controlled causes of climate change take place far removed from the poles. On the other hand, polar research has been absolutely essential for educating the public about climate change: the combination of important science and dramatic stories and images have captured the public’s attention more than for science originating in other regions. I will draw examples from several IPY projects that reached a broad public audience, and suggest that public education and outreach is the most important thing polar scientists can do to “make a difference” with respect to solving the climate crisis because environmental literacy (and an educated electorate) has been the factor that has most limited progress.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

Climate and landscape drivers of tree decline in a Mediterranean ecoregion

PubMed Central

Brouwers, Niels C; Mercer, Jack; Lyons, Tom; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik; Hardy, Giles

2013-01-01

Climate change and anthropogenic land use are increasingly affecting the resilience of natural ecosystems. In Mediterranean ecoregions, forests and woodlands have shown progressive declines in health. This study focuses on the decline of an endemic woodland tree species, Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo), occurring in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Western Australia. We determined the change in health of wandoo stands between 2002 and 2008 across its geographic and climatic range, and associated this change in health with non-biotic variables focusing on: (1) fragment metrics; (2) topography; (3) soil characteristics; and (4) climate. Only fragment metrics and climate variables were found to be significantly related to the observed change in health. Stands that were small with high perimeter/area ratios were found to be most sensitive to health declines. Recent increases in autumn temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall were negatively affecting health of wandoo most prominently in the low rainfall zone of its climatic range. Together, these results suggest the onset of range contraction for this ecologically important species, which is likely to be exacerbated by projected future changes in climate. Our results emphasize the importance of establishing monitoring programs to identify changes in health and decline trends early to inform management strategies, particularly in the sensitive Mediterranean ecoregions. PMID:23403899

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2013-09-01

While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ˜0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ˜0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.

Evolving Views on a Dynamic Greenhouse Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollis, Chris; Huber, Matthew

2009-06-01

Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene (CBEP 2009) Conference; Wellington, New Zealand, 12-15 January 2009; The Paleogene (65-24 million years ago) was a dynamic period in Earth's history in which major mammal groups became established and diversified, rapid and repeated extreme global warming events occurred, and climate began its stuttering progression from a greenhouse to an icehouse climate state. With atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the range projected to occur over the next several centuries (>1000 parts per million), the Paleogene is also a window into our future (see J. C. Zachos et al., Nature, 451, 279-283, 2008). Long-standing interest in understanding the causes and consequences of global change in the Paleogene and the current timeliness of greenhouse climate research explain why conferences are periodically devoted to the climatic and biotic events of the Paleogene. The 2009 conference, held in New Zealand, attracted 130 participants from 20 countries. Presentations demonstrated substantial progress in new climate proxy development, new multiproxy approaches, and closer integration of paleoclimate records with climate models, consolidating around three main issues.

Vegetation and climate changes in western Amazonia during a previous Interglacial- Glacial transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardenas, M. L.; Gosling, W. D.; Sherlock, S. C.; Poole, I.; Pennington, R. T.

2009-12-01

Amazonia is one of the most biodiverse areas of the world and its vegetation plays a crucial role in controlling the global climate through the regulation of the levels of atmospheric CO2. However, Amazonian ecosystems and their role in the climate system are threatened by ongoing the human impact (already estimated loss of 60% of the species in western Amazonia) and predicted climate change (+1.1-6.4oC by 2100). Unfortunately, there is absence of data relating to the ecological baseline function and response to global climate change of western Amazonian ecosystems in the absence of humans. To help anticipate the impact of future climate change predictions an improved understanding of the natural responses of tropical vegetation to known past climate change is required. Here we present the first study that shows the response of pristine tropical ecosystems in western Amazonia biodiversity hotspot to a major global climate change event (a Quaternary Interglacial-Glacial transition). Pleistocene lake/swamp sediments preserved at the Erazo study site (Lat. 00o 33’S, Long. 077o 52’W, 1927m alt.) today within tropical cloud forest vegetation provide a unique opportunity to examine the impact of past climate shifts. The sediment are >40,000 years old (radiocarbon infinite) and younger than 1 million years (presence of Alder biomarker) and consist of organic layers interbedded with volcanic ash (tephra). This study presents data from multiple proxies (fossil pollen, wood macrofossils and charcoal) to establish a comprehensive picture of regional and local vegetation change prior to human arrival. Our data show a change of vegetation from palm-dominated forest indicative of warm and wet conditions similar to the present at the base of this record, to a forest dominated by Podocarpus sp. suggesting cold and wet conditions at the top of the record. The transition between these two vegetation communities appears to be progressive with small sharp changes along the ecological succession. Fire activity appears to be minor through the record associated only with volcanic events (tephra layers). We conclude that western Amazonian vegetation was effected by Pleistocene global climate change. The Erazo record shows the progression of the vegetation from warm/wet Interglacial-like period similar to the present, to a colder and wetter Glacial-like period. This magnitude of change agrees with similar magnitude changes inferred for the last glacial-interglacial transition at 14,700-9,000 calendar years BP. We also establish for the first time that no natural fire occurred in western Amazonia in the absence of humans, under interglacial or glacial conditions, without volcanic eruptions acting as a source of ignition.

Air Pollution: Current and Future Challenges

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Despite the dramatic progress to date, air pollution continues to threaten Americans’ health and welfare. The main obstacles are climate change, conventional air pollution, and ozone layer depletion.

Evidence for long-term climate change in Upper Devonian strata of the central Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brezinski, D.K.; Cecil, C.B.; Skema, V.W.; Kertis, C.A.

2009-01-01

The highest 1 to 200 m of the Upper Devonian (Famennian) Catskill and equivalent Hampshire formations exhibit a noticeable vertical or stratigraphic change in color and a shift in lithologic character. The lower part of the unit is characterized by typically red, channel-phase sandstones and overbank siltstone and mudstone containing thin calcareous paleosols. These lithologies give way to greenish gray sandstone containing abundant coaly plant fragments, coalified logs, and pyrite, interbedded with thick intervals of non-calcareous paleo-vertisols. The increase in the prominence of preserved terrestrial organic matter suggests that there was a corresponding increase in the abundance of plants in terrestrial ecosystems. The stratigraphic change in lithology within the upper part of the Catskill-Hampshire succession suggests the onset of environmental conditions that became increasingly wet in response to elevated humid climatic conditions during the final stages of Catskill alluvial plain deposition. The sedimentological signature suggesting increased climatic wetness within the uppermost Catskill and Hampshire formations is nearly contemporaneous with the initiation of Late Devonian Gondwanan glaciation in the paleo-high-latitudes. The Appalachian climate record indicates that this change began during the Fa2c and continued through the latest Famennian, reaching its peak during the Fa2d when glacial deposits are recorded in the paleo-mid-latitudes of the Appalachian basin. Evidence of this late Famennian increase in precipitation also is recorded in the adjacent marine environments. Equivalent-age marine units in Ohio and Kentucky record progressive increases in both total organic carbon and the percentage of terrestrially-derived organic carbon. This suggests that there was a late Famennian increase in terrestrial organic matter productivity, and that during the late Famennian, there were elevated levels of runoff produced by the interpreted increase in precipitation that washed progressively higher amounts of terrestrial organic matter into the local marine environments. The late Famennian climate changes identified within the Appalachian basin strata have been recognizable globally, and appear to have had both positive and negative effects on the Earth's biota. Some marine groups exhibit sharp diversity drops or even extinction coincident with the maximum development of the late Famennian ice age. Conversely, terrestrial biota appears to have been more positively affected by the late Famennian increased wetness that accompanied this progressive climate change. Marked diversification and evolutionary innovation, which appear to coincide with this climatic deviation, can be recognized within terrestrial plant communities and early tetrapod amphibians. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal Climate Change Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation in the Natural and Built Environments: Progress of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, A.; Herman, B.; Vernaza-Hernández, V.; Ryan, J. G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.

2011-12-01

The Coastal Area Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership, funded by the National Science Foundation, seeks to develop new ways to educate citizens about global climate change. The core themes are sea level rise and impacts of climate change in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean Sea. CACCE focuses on helping partners, educators, students, and the general public gain a fundamental and working understanding of the interrelation among the natural environment, built environment, and social aspects in the context of climate change in coastal regions. To this end, CACCE's objectives reported here include: 1) defining the current state of awareness, perceptions, and literacy about the impacts of climate change; and 2) testing a model of transdisciplinary research and learning as a means of training a new generation of climate professionals. Objective one is met in part by CACCE survey efforts that reveal Florida and Puerto Rico secondary science teachers hold many non-scientific views about climate change and climate change science and provide inadequate instruction about climate change. Associated with objective two are five Multiple Outcome Interdisciplinary Research and Learning (MOIRL) pilot projects underway in schools in Florida and Puerto Rico. In the CACCE Partnership the stakeholders include: students (K-16 and graduate); teachers and education researchers; informal science educators; scientists and engineers; business and industry; policy makers; and community members. CACCE combines interdisciplinary research with action research and community-based participatory research in a way that is best described as "transdisciplinary". Learning occurs in all spheres of interactions among stakeholders as they engage in scientific, educational, community and business activities through their legitimate peripheral participation in research communities of practice. We will describe the process of seeking and building partnerships, and call for a dialogue with groups pursuing climate and climate change education.

From Assessment to Action: Identifying Progress toward Enhanced Accessibility and Campus Climate (Practice Brief)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beyer, Allison N.; Moore, Crystal Dea; Totino, Jamin

2016-01-01

In 2013, a focus group of administrators, faculty, staff, and students at Skidmore College was held to discuss cross-campus changes implemented following the Assessment of Campus Climate to Enhance Student Success survey and an external disability services audit, which were conducted during the 2008-2009 academic year. The focus group gave these…

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

PubMed

Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-07-14

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

PubMed Central

Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-01-01

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems. PMID:26172980

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Criteria for selecting a CO/sub 2//climate change region of study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, J.; Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.

One of the most important research issues active today is the greenhouse issue. Progress has been made in exploring the relationship between human activities and the accumulation of CO/sub 2/ and other radiatively important gases in the atmosphere. While significant research remains in refining our understanding of the timing of possible CO/sub 2//climate change, the examination of the nature and magnitude of consequences of CO/sub 2//climate change remains in a relatively early stage of development. While the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may be a global problem, the consequences of CO/sub 2//climate change will be experienced regionally. Itmore » is therefore critical that methods be developed to address the regional examination of CO/sub 2//climate change. An analytical framework is described and a ''cookie cutter'' technique is utilized to deal with multiple resource sectors in selecting a Region of Study. The result leads to the selection of the four midwestern states of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. The role of information systems, uncertainty analysis, and knowledge transfer is discussed. 19 refs., 2 figs.« less

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Smith, Matthew R; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Dangour, Alan D; Huybers, Peter

2017-03-20

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

Changing climate: Geothermal evidence from permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lachenbruch, A.H.; Marshall, B.V.

1986-01-01

Temperature profiles measured in permafrost in northernmost Alaska usually have anomalous curvature in the upper 100 meters or so. When analyzed by heat-conduction theory, the profiles indicate a variable but widespread secular warming of the permafrost surface, generally in the range of 2 to 4 Celsius degrees during the last few decades to a century. Although details of the climatic change cannot be resolved with existing data, there is little doubt of its general magnitude and timing; alternative explanations are limited by the fact that heat transfer in cold permafrost is exclusively by conduction. Since models of greenhouse warming predict climatic change will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress, it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime in this region.

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

2010-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayers, Jessica M.; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

The value of linking mitigation and adaptation: a case study of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Ayers, Jessica M; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

Mock climate summit: teaching and assessing learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, D.; Gautier, C.; Bazerman, C.

2003-04-01

This paper will demonstrate the effectiveness of a Mock Climate Summit as a pedagogical approach for teaching the science and policy aspects of global climate change. The Mock Climate Summit is a student-centered course simulating the Conference of the Parties (COP) where international environmental protocols are negotiated. Compared to traditional lecture-based methods common in the geoscience classroom, the Mock Climate Summit uses negotiations and arguments to teach the interactions between these two “spheres” and demonstrate the depth and breadth of these interactions. Through a detailed assessment of students’ dialogue transcribed from video and audio tapes, we found that the nature of the student dialogue matures rapidly as they are given multiple opportunities to present, negotiate and argue a specific topic. Students’ dialogue progress from hypothetical (what-if) scenarios to action-oriented scenarios and implementation plans. The progression of the students’ dialogue shows increased comfort with the communities’ discourse as they take ownership of the point-of-view associated with their assumed roles.

Mock Climate Summit: Teaching and Assessing Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, D.; Gautier, C.; Bazerman, C.

2003-04-01

This paper will demonstrate the effectiveness of a Mock Climate Summit as a pedagogical for teaching the science and policy aspects of global climate change. The Mock Climate Summit is a student-centered course simulating the Conference of the Parties (COP) where international environmental protocols are negotiated. Compared to traditional lecture-based methods common in the geoscience classroom, the Mock Climate Summit uses negotiations and arguments to teach the interactions between these two "spheres" and demonstrate the depth and breadth of these interactions. Through a detailed assessment of students' dialogue transcribed from video and audio tapes, we found that the nature of the student dialogue matures rapidly as they are given multiple opportunities to present, negotiate and argue a specific topic. Students' dialogue progress from hypothetical (what-if) scenarios to action-oriented scenarios and implementation plans. The progression of the students' dialogue shows increased comfort with the communities' discourse as they take ownership of the point-of-view associated with their assumed roles.

An Evaluation Model for Professional Education--Medical Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Christine H.

There are striking similarities between medical education of today and progressive education of the thirties with respect to motivation for change, the values to be sought in change, and the zest with which change is pursued. It is in this climate conducive to change that a new approach to evaluation is beginning to make a significant contribution…

Living with a Star: New Opportunities in Sun-Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, John Allen

2003-01-01

Enormous advances have been made in the last quarter century in all of these needed areas, covering the two essential halves of the Sun-Climate question: in what we know of solar variations and, equally important, in what we know of the climate system and of climatic changes. These research achievements allow us to examine all aspects of the question more directly and quantitatively than was ever possible before, and in the brighter light and more objective context of other known or suspected climate change mechanisms, including human-induced global greenhouse warming. Brief summaries of present status and current understanding are given below for nine facets of Sun-Climate science in which major progress has been made in recent years. At the same time it will be seen that in every instance, significant elements of uncertainty still remain, Some of the most important of these unanswered questions are considered later, in Section IV.

Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feynman, Joan

If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth's atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth's mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth's climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.

Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

2013-12-01

Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed. © 2013.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, 1 December 1991--30 June 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1994-07-01

In addition to changes due to variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the enhanced greenhouse effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided bymore » a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to ocean General Circulation Models. Appendices A--G contain the following seven papers: (A) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption; (B) Recent warming in global temperature series; (C) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies; (D) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes; (E) A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations; (F) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios; and (G) Sulfate aerosol and climatic change.« less

Climate change and human infectious diseases: A synthesis of research findings from global and spatio-temporal perspectives.

PubMed

Liang, Lu; Gong, Peng

2017-06-01

The life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents are inextricably linked with climate. In spite of a growing level of interest and progress in determining climate change effects on infectious disease, the debate on the potential health outcomes remains polarizing, which is partly attributable to the varying effects of climate change, different types of pathogen-host systems, and spatio-temporal scales. We summarize the published evidence and show that over the past few decades, the reported negative or uncertain responses of infectious diseases to climate change has been growing. A feature of the research tendency is the focus on temperature and insect-borne diseases at the local and decadal scale. Geographically, regions experiencing higher temperature anomalies have been given more research attention; unfortunately, the Earth's most vulnerable regions to climate variability and extreme events have been less studied. From local to global scales, agreements on the response of infectious diseases to climate change tend to converge. So far, an abundance of findings have been based on statistical methods, with the number of mechanistic studies slowly growing. Research gaps and trends identified in this study should be addressed in the future. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Stocks, Brian J.; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. PMID:27513660

An Update on the VAMOS Extremes Working Group Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Cavalcanti, Iracema

2011-01-01

We review here the progress of the Variability of the American MOnsoon Systems (VAMOS) extremes working group since it was formed in February of 2010. The goals of the working group are to 1) develop an atlas of warm-season extremes over the Americas, 2) evaluate existing and planned simulations, and 3) suggest new model runs to address mechanisms and predictability of extremes. Substantial progress has been made in the development of an extremes atlas based on gridded observations and several reanalysis products including Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The status of the atlas, remaining issues and plans for its expansion to include model data will be discussed. This includes the possibility of adding a companion atlas based on station observations based on the software developed under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Expert Team on Climate Change. Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) activity. We will also review progress on relevant research and plans for the use and validation of the atlas results.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

2017-01-01

Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Long-term resistance to simulated climate change in an infertile grassland.

PubMed

Grime, J Philip; Fridley, Jason D; Askew, Andrew P; Thompson, Ken; Hodgson, John G; Bennett, Chris R

2008-07-22

Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.

Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world.

PubMed

Tabachnick, W J

2010-03-15

Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.

Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David M.; Smith, Joel B.; Grambsch, Anne

2006-01-01

The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience. PMID:16966082

Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

2015-04-01

An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

Climate drivers of the Amazon forest greening.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Hilker, Thomas; Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Sanchez, Alber; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Galvão, Lênio Soares; Wang, Yujie; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2017-01-01

Our limited understanding of the climate controls on tropical forest seasonality is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in modeling climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Combining leaf production, litterfall and climate observations from satellite and ground data in the Amazon forest, we show that seasonal variation in leaf production is largely triggered by climate signals, specifically, insolation increase (70.4% of the total area) and precipitation increase (29.6%). Increase of insolation drives leaf growth in the absence of water limitation. For these non-water-limited forests, the simultaneous leaf flush occurs in a sufficient proportion of the trees to be observed from space. While tropical cycles are generally defined in terms of dry or wet season, we show that for a large part of Amazonia the increase in insolation triggers the visible progress of leaf growth, just like during spring in temperate forests. The dependence of leaf growth initiation on climate seasonality may result in a higher sensitivity of these ecosystems to changes in climate than previously thought.

Climate Science: A Journalist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roosevelt, M.

2011-12-01

U.S. public opinion polls show that concern over global warming has dropped precipitously in the wake of economic turmoil. With a dearth of climate change coverage on network news, and in large newspapers and magazines, the public largely gets its climate news--and science news generally--from local TV weathermen. At the same time, many local weathercasters have little time to educate themselves about climate change--although the National Science Foundation is funding an effort to inform them. The Heartland Institute and other climate-skeptic organizations are reaching out to TV weathermen, and some prominent weathercasters have embraced the skeptics' arguments, but websites such as Climate Central, and blogs such as DotEarth are seeking to fill the void. The innate caution of climate scientists, most of whom are reluctant to extrapolate from a narrow study on, say, carbon flux or sea ice, to talk about why the planet is in danger is another challenge. For the most part, they don't want to stick their necks out for fear of professional retribution. When scientists limit themselves to talking about narrow results, journalists' eyes glaze over and no one connects the dots. Much attention is devoted to whether or not the media is doing a good job in covering climate change, when energy might better be spent on applying pressure to decision makers? The media can't make legislators vote for progressive climate change policies--only constituents can do that.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

PubMed

Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

2014-01-01

Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Robust Spring Drying in the Southwestern U.S. and Seasonal Migration of Wet/Dry Patterns in a Warmer Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lu, Jian

2014-03-16

This study compares climate simulations over the United States produced by a regional climate model with the driving global climate simulations as well as a large multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations to investigate robust changes in water availability (precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (E)). A robust spring dry signal across multiple models is identified in the Southwest that results from a decrease in P and an increase in E in the future. In the boreal winter and summer, the prominent changes in P – E are associated with a north – south dipole pattern, while in spring, the prominent changesmore » in P – E appear as an east – west dipole pattern. The progression of the north – south and east – west dipole patterns through the seasons manifests clearly as a seasonal “clockwise” migration of wet/dry patterns, which is shown to be a robust feature of water availability changes in the US consistent across regional and global climate simulations.« less

Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

2005-01-01

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud-climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet's hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings.The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global-time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis.It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model's credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress.Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future.

Household behaviour crowds out support for climate change policy when sufficient progress is perceived

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werfel, Seth H.

2017-07-01

Household actions and government policies are both necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, household behaviour may crowd out public support for government action by creating the perception of sufficient progress. Here we demonstrate this crowding-out effect in public opinion using survey experiments with more than 14,000 participants in Japan. Subjects who were randomly assigned to report their energy-saving actions following the shutdown of the Fukushima power plant were less likely to support a tax increase on carbon emissions. Treatment effects were larger for subjects who had completed more actions. Further evidence suggests that the crowding-out effect may have been driven by an increase in the perceived importance of individual actions relative to government regulation and a decrease in the perceived issue importance of energy and environmental sustainability.

The sociological imagination in a time of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norgaard, Kari Marie

2018-04-01

Despite rising calls for social science knowledge in the face of climate change, too few sociologists have been engaged in the conversations about how we have arrived at such perilous climatic circumstances, or how society can change course. With its attention to the interactive dimensions of social order between individuals, social norms, cultural systems and political economy, the discipline of sociology is uniquely positioned to be an important leader in this conversation. In this paper I suggest that in order to understand and respond to climate change we need two kinds of imagination: 1) to see the relationships between human actions and their impacts on earth's biophysical system (ecological imagination) and 2) to see the relationships within society that make up this environmentally damaging social structure (sociological imagination). The scientific community has made good progress in developing our ecological imagination but still need to develop a sociological imagination. The application of a sociological imagination allows for a powerfully reframing of four key problems in the current interdisciplinary conversation on climate change: why climate change is happening, how we are being impacted, why we have failed to successfully respond so far, and how we might be able to effectively do so. I visit each of these four questions describing the current understanding and show the importance of the sociological imagination and other insights from the field of sociology. I close with reflections on current limitations in sociology's potential to engage climate change and the Anthropocene.

Story telling and social action: engaging young people to act on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero, E.

2014-12-01

The realization that well designed graphs and clearly worded summaries were not enough to spur the public and policy makers towards an appropriate understanding of our planet encouraged me to search for other ways to share climate stories with the general public. After co-authoring a popular book on food and climate change and giving many talks to the general public, it struck me that young people were largely missing from the dialogue, and little meaningful progress was being made to design effective solutions. I then started working with faculty and students from the Film and Animation Departments at San Jose State University to develop stories about climate change that would be engaging to younger audiences. The result was the Green Ninja Project, based around the Green Ninja, a superhero who focuses on solutions to climate change using humor and silliness to soften what can be a somewhat challenging topic. The Project includes a) The Green Ninja Show - a series of YouTube videos (over 1,000,000 views) highlighting actions young people can take to reduce climate change, b) The Green Ninja Film Festival where students tell their own climate solutions stories, and c) a collection of educational resources that help teachers bring climate science topics into their classroom using hands-on activities. A key component to this work is promoting social action experiences, so that young people can understand how their actions can make a difference. Based on these experiences, I will provide my own reflections on the challenges and opportunities of communicating climate change with young people.

Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila.

PubMed

Westphal, Michael F; Stewart, Joseph A E; Tennant, Erin N; Butterfield, H Scott; Sinervo, Barry

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto andmore » away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.« less

Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey.

PubMed

Colagiuri, Ruth; Boylan, Sinead; Morrice, Emily

2015-10-16

Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i) convened a workshop of academics (n = 25) from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii) conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii) convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation) were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities) was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms.

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;

An overview of mineral dust modeling over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Kang, Litai; Yang, Ben; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yuzhi; Yuan, Tiangang; Wang, Tianhe; Ma, Xiaojun; Zhang, Guolong

2017-08-01

East Asian dust (EAD) exerts considerable impacts on the energy balance and climate/climate change of the earth system through its influence on solar and terrestrial radiation, cloud properties, and precipitation efficiency. Providing an accurate description of the life cycle and climate effects of EAD is therefore critical to better understanding of climate change and socioeconomic development in East Asia and even worldwide. Dust modeling has undergone substantial development since the late 1990s, associated with improved understanding of the role of EAD in the earth system. Here, we review the achievements and progress made in recent decades in terms of dust modeling research, including dust emissions, long-range transport, radiative forcing (RF), and climate effects of dust particles over East Asia. Numerous efforts in dust/EAD modeling have been directed towards furnishing more sophisticated physical and chemical processes into the models on higher spatial resolutions. Meanwhile, more systematic observations and more advanced retrieval methods for instruments that address EAD related science issues have made it possible to evaluate model results and quantify the role of EAD in the earth system, and to further reduce the uncertainties in EAD simulations. Though much progress has been made, large discrepancies and knowledge gaps still exist among EAD simulations. The deficiencies and limitations that pertain to the performance of the EAD simulations referred to in the present study are also discussed.

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

PubMed Central

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

PubMed

Rurinda, Jairos; van Wijk, Mark T; Mapfumo, Paul; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E

2015-12-01

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

PubMed

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Late Pliocene vegetation and orbital-scale climate changes from the western Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Burjachs, Francesc; Expósito, Isabel; Oms, Oriol; Carrancho, Ángel; Villalaín, Juan José; Agustí, Jordi; Campeny, Gerard; Gómez de Soler, Bruno; van der Made, Jan

2013-09-01

The Late Pliocene is a very interesting period as climate deteriorated from a warm optimum at ca. 3.3-3.0 Ma to a progressive climate cooling. Simultaneously, the Mediterranean area witnessed the establishment of the Mediterranean-type seasonal precipitation rhythm (summer drought). These important climate changes produced significant vegetation changes, such as the extinction of several thermophilous and hygrophilous plant taxa from the European latitudes. Besides these long-term trends, climate was also characterized by cyclical variability (i.e., orbital changes) that forced vegetation changes (forested vs. open vegetation). In the Mediterranean area, cyclical changes in the vegetation were mostly forced by precession. In this study we analyzed pollen from a Late Pliocene maar lake core from NE Spain. An increase in aridity is observed as well as cyclic variations throughout the studied sequence. Cyclicity was mostly forced by precession but also by obliquity and eccentricity. Precipitation seems to be the main factor controlling these cycles. These data allowed estimating a sedimentary rate of ca. 0.19 mm/yr and the time duration covered by the studied core, close to 200 ka. The combination of biostratigraphy, palaeomagnetism and cyclostratigraphy allowed for a very precise dating of the sediments between ca. 3.3 and 3.1 Ma. Climate and paleobiogeographical implications are discussed within the context of the Late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification.

Semiannual progress report, April - September 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Research conducted during the past year in the climate and modeling programs has concentrated on the development of appropriate atmospheric and upper ocean models, and preliminary applications of these models. Principal models are a one-dimensional radiative-convective model, a three dimensional global climate model, and an upper ocean model. Principal applications have been the study of the impact of CO2, aerosols, and the solar constant on climate. Progress was made in the 3-D model development towards physically realistic treatment of these processes. In particular, a map of soil classifications on 1 degree by 1 degree resolution has now been digitized, and soil properties have been assigned to each soil type. Using this information about soil properties, a method has been developed to simulate the hydraulic behavior of the soils of the world. This improved treatment of soil hydrology, together with the seasonally varying vegetation cover, will provide a more realistic study of the role of the terrestrial biota in climate change. A new version of the climate model was created which follows the isotopes of water and sources of water throughout the planet.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A.; Hall, Richard J.; Hanna, Edward; Kim, Seong-Joong; Screen, James A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Vihma, Timo

2016-11-01

Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.

Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigorov, Ivo

2010-05-01

Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

3-D Teaching of Climate Change: An innovative professional learning model for K-12 teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stapleton, M.; Wolfson, J.; Sezen-Barrie, A.

2017-12-01

In spite of the presumed controversy over the evidence for climate change, the recently released Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) for K-12 include a focus on climate literacy and explicitly use the term `climate change.' In addition to the increased focus on climate change, the NGSS are also built upon a new three dimensional framework for teaching and learning science. Three dimensional learning has students engaging in scientific and engineering practices (Dimension 1), while using crosscutting concepts (Dimension 2) to explore and explain natural phenomena using disciplinary core ideas (Dimension 3). The adoption of these new standards in many states across the nation has created a critical need for on-going professional learning as in-service science educators begin to implement both climate change instruction and three dimensional teaching and learning in their classrooms. In response to this need, we developed an innovative professional learning model for preparing teachers to effectively integrate climate change into their new curriculum and engage students in three dimensional learning. Our professional learning model utilized ideas that have emerged from recent science education research and include: a) formative assessment probes for three dimensional learning that monitor students' progress; b) collaboration with scientists with expertise in climate science to understand the domain specific ways of doing science; and c) development of a community of practice for in-service teachers to provide feedback to each other on their implementation. In this poster presentation, we will provide details on the development of this professional learning model and discuss the affordances and challenges of implementing this type of professional learning experience.

Advancing water resource management in agricultural, rural, and urbanizing watersheds: Enhancing University involvement

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this research editorial we make four points relative to solving water resource issues: (1) they are complex problems and difficult to solve, (2) some progress has been made on solving these issues, (3) external non-stationary drivers such as land use changes, climate change and variability, and s...

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Progress Reports of the relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2016, 15, 141-147). The present Progress Report for 2016 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. The report is also published in (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, DOI: 10.1039/c7pp90001e). The more detailed Quadrennial Assessment will be made available in 2018. The Parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three Panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects on increased UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may

Climate Change Adopted Building Envelope as A Protector of Human Health in the Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Januszkiewicz, Krystyna

2017-10-01

Recently, an expanded understanding of building performance acknowledges that all forces acting on buildings (climate, energies, information, and human agents) are not static and fixed, but rather mutable and transient. With the use of parametric and multi-criteria optimization digital tools, buildings’ envelopes can be designed to respond to various requirements. This paper explores the possibilities of architectural design to benefit human conditions, which encompasses mental well-being, environmental quality of life during the Climate Change era. The first part of the paper defines the main factors (such as: lack of green nature and sunlight, noise and pollution) which are influencing the formation of psychological disorder in big cities. The negative impact of these factors is constantly increasing in the time of Climate Change progressing. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by author. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights a social problem, such as mental well-being, resulting from urbanization or effects of the climate change, and serves as a useful background for further research on the possibilities of redefining sustainable and human friendly design.

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate, and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.

2007-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological productivity to changes in atmospheric chemistry and regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as 'the great transformation'. Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of this transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter their environments so profoundly that the local climate, atmospheric composition, and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools to observe and understand these processes in ways that can be used to plan and develop enjoyable and sustainable urban places. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and the atmosphere including weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, surface water recharge at the local level, and climate and food security globally.

The Nevada NSF EPSCoR infrastructure for climate change science, education, and outreach project: highlights and progress on investigations of ecological change and water resources along elevational gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, L.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Arnone, J.; Devitt, D.; Riddle, B.; Young, M.

2010-12-01

In 2008, the Nevada System of Higher Education received a 5-year, $15 million grant from the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). The mission of the project is to create a statewide interdisciplinary program to stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach about the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem services (especially water resources), and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders. The overarching question that this effort will address is: how will climate change affect water resources, disturbance regimes and linked ecosystem and human services? While the overall project includes cyberinfrastructure, policy, education and climate modeling, this presentation will focus on the ecological change and water resources components. The goals of these two components are: 1) improving understanding of processes controlling local- and basin-wide impacts of climate on species dynamics, disturbance regimes, and water recharge rates; 2) evaluating interactions between landscape-level processes and biophysical indicators; 3) evaluating interactions between surface and groundwater systems; 4) predicting changes in wildfire regime, primary productivity, and biodiversity (including invasive species); and 5) assessing how interactions between water and ecology will differ under climate change and/or climate variability scenarios. To achieve these goals, the two components will quantify present-day climate variability at multiple temporal and spatial scales, including at multiple elevations within Nevada’s Basin and Range ecosystem continuum. This presentation will discuss key elements for achieving these goals, including the establishment of instrumented transects spanning a range of elevations and vegetation zones in eastern and southern Nevada.

Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2014-11-28

Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed. PMID:22712716

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France)

PubMed Central

Royer, Aurélien; Montuire, Sophie; Legendre, Serge; Discamps, Emmanuel; Jeannet, Marcel; Lécuyer, Christophe

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød. PMID:26789523

More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2015-12-01

Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, Benjamin D.

2011-11-01

This chapter describes progress in the field of "detection and attribution" (D&A) research, which seeks to identify certain "fingerprints," or patterns of climate change, and to correlate them with possible human factors influencing the climate. Such studies contributed to the scientific confidence with which the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was able to assert that anthropogenic greenhouse gases had had a discernible effect on global warming since the mid-20th century. D&A methods have greatly improved to incorporate many more climate variables and to include increasingly finer variations in space and time. The chapter also describes the intercomparison of global climate models and the comprehensive data base of model simulations now available to anyone free of charge. The following is the testimony given by Benjamin Santer to the U.S. House of Representative Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, on November 17, 2010. It is adapted from a chapter that Tom Wigley and Benjamin Santer published in a book edited by the late Stephen Schneider [1] and from previous testimony given by Dr. Santer to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.[2

Global Climate Change: Using Field Studies to Prepare the Next Generation of Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, T. C.; Hare, J.

2004-05-01

Global Climate Change is a new and invigorating concept in the pre-college classroom. To some it portends the altering of the Earth's climate by introducing anthropogenic influences and for others the natural progression of the Earth's systems. Regardless, climate change involves a plethora of environmental interactions and comprehension is a challenge for both teachers and students. This paper addresses a field studies program that prepares students to complete research projects associated with climate models affecting montane environments. It emphasizes a partnership between researchers from universities, government agencies, and public schools and their support of pre-college students in inquiry learning and research activities. Beginning in 1994 students from a Pennsylvania high school and schools in Scotland have engaged in biannual holistic studies of montane and glacial environments with the objective of completing investigations concerning the energy budgets of these environments. This paper will focus on 2000 and 2002, and the support and partnership of Dr. Jeff Hare and CIRES in designing, supporting, and providing professional interpretations,while assisting teachers and students toward the completion of recognized papers regarding climate studies. Introducing students to the employment and operation of complex field equipment will be discussed.

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragone, Francesco; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy

2004-12-01

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewingmore » the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.« less

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey

PubMed Central

Colagiuri, Ruth; Boylan, Sinead; Morrice, Emily

2015-01-01

Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i) convened a workshop of academics (n = 25) from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii) conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii) convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation) were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities) was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms. PMID:26501301

Examining the impact of climate change and variability on sweet potatoes in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ddumba, S. D.; Andresen, J.; Moore, N. J.; Olson, J.; Snapp, S.; Winkler, J. A.

2013-12-01

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to food security for the rapidly increasing population of East Africa. Rainfall is becoming more variable and temperatures are rising, consequently leading to increased occurrence of droughts and floods, and, changes in the timing and length of growing seasons. These changes have serious implications on crop production with the greatest impact likely to be on C4 crops such as cereals compared to C3 crops such as root tubers. Sweet potatoes is one the four most important food crops in East Africa owing to its high nutrition and calorie content, and, high tolerance to heat and drought, but little is known about how the crop will be affected by climate change. This study identifies the major climatic constraints to sweet potato production and examines the impact of projected future climates on sweet potato production in East Africa during the next 10 to 30 years. A process-based Sweet POTato COMputer Simulation (SPOTCOMS) model is used to assess four sweet potato cultivars; Naspot 1, Naspot 10, Naspot 11 and SPK 004-Ejumula. This is work in progress but preliminary results from the crop modeling experiments and the strength and weakness of the crop model will be presented.

Assessment of Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Constrained by Atmospheric Measurements and Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, Stephen C.

2001-01-01

This grant aimed to establish how the global carbon cycle has responded and will respond to global change. We proposed to use models to predict measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration and C-13/C-12 isotopic ratio, and thereby to establish how sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 have been influenced by climatic change and human activities. As the work progressed we developed strategies involving finding regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 by an inverse approach, and studying their seasonal and interannual variability.

Climate Change and Neotectonic History of Northwestern China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farr, Tom G.; Chadwick, Oliver; Evans, Diane; Gillespie, Alan; Peltzer, Gilles; Tapponnier, Paul

1996-01-01

The progress, results and future plans for the following objectives are presented: (1) To compare the types, rates, and magnitudes of surficial modification processes that have operated in Northwest China and the Southwestern U.S.; (2) To quantify and understand the basis of the remote sensing signatures of these processes to allow extrapolation from field sites to regional maps and to allow comparisons between widely separated arid regions; (3) To use the resulting chronologies to help define the temporal and spatial distribution of continental climate changes; and (4) Determine the ages of movements on some of the active faults in Northwestern China.

Tropical Pacific climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly: progress and pitfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Charles, C.; Sayani, H. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.; Atwood, A. R.

2016-12-01

A vast trove of paleoclimate records indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1200AD) was characterized by relative warmth throughout the Northern Hemisphere and significant hydroclimate anomalies - particularly well-resolved over North America - that posed a challenge to human populations. The global-scale nature of the climate anomalies has driven speculation that the tropical Pacific, with its rich spectrum of natural variability and far-reaching impact, may have undergone a prolonged reorganization during the MCA. While some key records from across the tropical Pacific document significant changes in temperature and/or hydrology, a dynamically-consistent picture of the MCA tropical Pacific climate state has proven elusive. In particular, there are few if any robust paleoclimate constraints from the central Pacific, where even modest changes in ocean temperature translate into distinct patterns of global atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we present a new collection of fossil coral multi-proxy records from Christmas Island (2N, 157W) that provide robust constraints on both temperature and hydrological changes during the MCA. We employ both modern coral data, instrumental climate data, and climate model output in developing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties associated with the new fossil coral data. In doing so, we illustrate the clear benefits of modern environmental monitoring campaigns that inform the generation of paleoclimate pseudo-proxies.

Banking on the future: progress, challenges and opportunities for the genetic conservation of forest trees

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; Robert M. Jetton; Andrew Bower; Douglass F. Jacobs; Gary Man; Valerie D. Hipkins; Murphy Westwood

2017-01-01

Genetic diversity provides the essential basis for the adaptation and resilience of tree species to environmental stress and change. The genetic conservation of tree species is an urgent global necessity as forest conversion and fragmentation continue apace, damaging insects and pathogens are transported between continents, and climate change alters local habitat...

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Estimation of the possible influence of future climate changes on biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, H. M.; Nishina, K.; Ito, A.

2015-12-01

In recent decades, climate change has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity, particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles and here carbon is one of the central elements. The photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants, which forms the basis of the food web, is known to be highly sensitive to meteorological changes including radiation, temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration. Thus an analysis of the effect of future climate change on the carbon cycle processes including photosynthetic production in a biogeographical region, which is important from the viewpoint of the biodiversity conservation, such as "biodiversity hotspot", might enable us to discuss the relevance between climate change and biodiversity.In ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) phase 1, we have estimated NPP (net primary production), plant biomass and soil organic carbon by seven global biome models under climate conditions from 1901 to 2100 based on four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways for 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m-2 stabilization targets) and five global climate models. In the present study, we analyzed these outputs to reveal the effects of changes on NPP, plant biomass and soil organic carbon in 20 biodiversity hotspots in various climatic regions. Although NPP of whole world tended to increase under RCP 8.5 W m-2 scenario, some biome models have shown that NPP of the hotspots in tropical regions decrease.

Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources-Global Stages of Interaction.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Gold, Arthur J; Mayer, Paul M

2017-10-24

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization). During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs). During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability). During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P. T.; Ming, Y.; Li, W.; Hill, S. A.

2017-12-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Li, Y.; Fu, C.; Chen, F.; Fu, Q.; Dai, A.; Shinoda, M.; Ma, Z.; Guo, W.; Li, Z.; Zhang, L.; Liu, Y.; Yu, H.; He, Y.; Xie, Y.; Guan, X.; Ji, M.; Lin, L.; Wang, S.; Yan, H.; Wang, G.

2017-09-01

Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long-term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere-land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948-2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

Progress Toward Meeting the Challenges of our Coastal Urban Future

EPA Science Inventory

Coastal urban regions are a nexus for climate change effects, extreme weather impacts, chemical/biological threats, and air quality issues as the global population increasingly concentrates in cities and megacities at the land/water interface. Sophisticated observational and mode...

HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITY OF GLOBAL RIVERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824802)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David; Hansen, Gerrit; James, Rachel; Mechler, Reinhard; Stone, Dáithí; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

2016-04-01

The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss of land area due to coastal and hillslope erosion and sea level change; loss of plant and animal species, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity; loss of human lives, homelands, and cultural identity. Attribution to anthropogenic climate change is analyzed based on recent progress following from the IPCC AR5. Generally, high confidence in attributing irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change is found in physical systems and more specifically in cryosphere environments, both in mountain and polar regions. Detected loss in terrestrial ecosystems has typically low confidence in attribution whereas loss in some ocean ecosystems (corals) has high confidence. Impacts in human systems that may be classified as irreversible loss are of low confidence in terms of attribution except for the Arctic where higher confidence for a relation with anthropogenic emissions was found. Our analysis suggests that scientific progress in detection and attribution is now at a level that would likely allow policy, or courts, to define mechanisms, or take decisions, as related to irreversible loss in many cryosphere systems. On the other hand, policy may need to consider that at least in the near future it will be difficult to establish clear tracks between irreversible loss in most human systems and anthropogenic climate change, a domain, which however is at the forefront of discussions. We end our discussion with setting out ideas for further clarification of different categories of irreversible loss, including in human systems, and the role of attribution in any policy or legal mechanism in order to help in the development of just and sensible solutions.

Novel approaches to reducing uncertainty in regional climate predictions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.

2009-12-01

Regional planning in preparation for future climate changes is rapidly gaining importance. However, compared to the global mean projections, correctly anticipating regional climate is often much more difficult, particularly with regard to hydrologic changes. The reason for the high, inherent uncertainty in location specific forecasts arises on one hand from the superposition of large internal variability in the atmosphere-ocean system on the more gradual changes. On the other hand, this problem is confounded by the fact that regional climate records are often short and therefore offer little guidance as to how an underlying trend can be identified within the noise. The use of indirect climate information (proxy records) from a host of natural archives has made significant progress recently. Based on an extended record, process studies can help reveal the regional response to changes in large scale climate that likely have to be expected. But in order to come up with robust, season and parameter specific (temperature versus moisture) climate reconstructions, comprehensive data compilations are needed that integrate proxy records of different characteristics, temporal representations, and different systematic and sampling uncertainties. Based on understanding of physical processes, and making explicit use of that knowledge, new dynamical and statistical techniques in paleoclimatology are being developed and explored. In addition to improved estimates of the past climate, the cascade of uncertainties is directly taken into account so that errors can more comprehensively be assessed. A brief overview of the problems and its potential implications for regional planning is followed by an application that demonstrates how collaboration between paleoclimatologists, climate modelers and statisticians can advance our understanding of the climate system and how agencies, businesses and individuals might be able to make better informed decisions in preparation for future climate.

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-01-01

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958–2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes—more so than external climatic factors—are driving forest dynamics. PMID:25775576

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-03-31

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics.

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

Dendroclimatology of the Slave River Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, S.; Buhay, W. M.; Blair, D.; Tardif, J.; Bailey, D.

2004-05-01

It is well documented that changing hydrological conditions impact delta ecosystems. Such changes can also affect local inhabitants who have historical connections to the area and its resources. During the summer of 2003 a multifaceted paleo-environmental project was initiated to reconstruct the frequencies of floods and droughts in the Slave River Delta (SRD), Northwest Territories, Canada. The project goal is to forecast future hydrological and ecological conditions in the SRD in light of anticipated climate change and increasing demand on water resources. With the intent of expanding the climate history of the SRD, this particular aspect of the project will employ white spruce tree-ring chronologies constructed from six sites visited within the delta. Work is currently in progress to build a master chronology estimated to span over 300 years. In addition, a climate model for the SRD is also being developed and will be highlighted.

Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, J. Collin

No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.

Progressive Mid-latitude Afforestation: Local and Remote Climate Impacts in the Framework of Two Coupled Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, Marysa

Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and non-linear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, we systematically evaluate the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover over the northern mid-latitudes. We show that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern mid-latitudes determines the climate response in a non-linear fashion, and identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks - a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. We identify how vegetation-induced changes in cloud cover further feedback on changes in the global energy balance. We also show how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased (a relationship which has not previously been demonstrated). This work demonstrates that while some climate effects (such as energy transport) of large scale mid-latitude afforestation scale roughly linearly across a wide range of afforestation areas, others (such as the local partitioning of the surface energy budget) are non-linear, and sensitive to the particular magnitude of mid-latitude forcing. Our results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate responses to large-scale vegetation change, and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and the resulting climate impacts.

Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj

2016-08-01

In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.

Modeling human-climate interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacoby, Henry D.

If policymakers and the public are to be adequately informed about the climate change threat, climate modeling needs to include components far outside its conventional boundaries. An integration of climate chemistry and meteorology, oceanography, and terrestrial biology has been achieved over the past few decades. More recently the scope of these studies has been expanded to include the human systems that influence the planet, the social and ecological consequences of potential change, and the political processes that lead to attempts at mitigation and adaptation. For example, key issues—like the relative seriousness of climate change risk, the choice of long-term goals for policy, and the analysis of today's decisions when uncertainty may be reduced tomorrow—cannot be correctly understood without joint application of the natural science of the climate system and social and behavioral science aspects of human response. Though integration efforts have made significant contributions to understanding of the climate issue, daunting intellectual and institutional barriers stand in the way of needed progress. Deciding appropriate policies will be a continuing task over the long term, however, so efforts to extend the boundaries of climate modeling and assessment merit long-term attention as well. Components of the effort include development of a variety of approaches to analysis, the maintenance of a clear a division between close-in decision support and science/policy research, and the development of funding institutions that can sustain integrated research over the long haul.

The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration with GIZ, UNFCCC, World Bank, and Climate Analytics.

Inter-decadal variability of phytoplankton biomass along the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula.

PubMed

Kim, Hyewon; Ducklow, Hugh W; Abele, Doris; Ruiz Barlett, Eduardo M; Buma, Anita G J; Meredith, Michael P; Rozema, Patrick D; Schofield, Oscar M; Venables, Hugh J; Schloss, Irene R

2018-06-28

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- a (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island. There were trends towards increased phytoplankton biomass at Carlini Station (PC) and Palmer Station, while phytoplankton biomass declined significantly at Rothera Station over the studied period. The impacts of two relevant climate modes to the WAP, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, on winter and spring phytoplankton biomass appear to be different among the three sampling stations, suggesting an important role of local-scale forcing than large-scale forcing on phytoplankton dynamics at each station. The inter-annual variability of seasonal bloom progression derived from considering all three stations together captured ecologically meaningful, seasonally co-occurring bloom patterns which were primarily constrained by water-column stability strength. Our findings highlight a coupled link between phytoplankton and physical and climate dynamics along the coastal WAP, which may improve our understanding of overall WAP food-web responses to climate change and variability.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, Silke; Cobben, Marleen M P; Ens, Bruno J; Nolet, Bart A

2017-10-01

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire, is included in this summary.

Climate Change Boot Camps: Targeting Policy Makers and Outreach Trainers in Arizona to Improve Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, D. B.; Guido, Z. S.; Buizer, J.; Roy, M.

2010-12-01

Bringing climate change issues into focus for decision makers is a growing challenge. Decision makers are often confronted with unique informational needs, a lack of useable information, and needs for customized climate change training, among other issues. Despite significant progress in improving climate literacy among certain stakeholders such as water managers, recent reports have highlighted the growing demand for climate-change information in regions and sectors across the US. In recent years many ventures have sprung up to address these gaps and have predominantly focused on K-12 education and resource management agencies such as the National Park Service and National Weather Service. However, two groups that are critical for integrating climate information into actions have received less attention: (1) policy makers and (2) outreach experts, such as Cooperative Extension agents. Climate Change Boot Camps (CCBC) is a joint effort between the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)—a NOAA Regionally Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program—and researchers at Arizona State University to diagnose climate literacy and training gaps in Arizona and develop a process that converts these deficiencies into actionable knowledge among the two aforementioned groups. This presentation will highlight the initial phases of the CCBC process, which has as its outcomes the identification of effective strategies for reaching legislators, climate literacy and training needs for both policy makers and trainers, and effective metrics to evaluate the success of these efforts. Specific attention is given to evaluating the process from initial needs assessment to the effectiveness of the workshops. Web curriculum and training models made available on the internet will also be developed, drawing on extensive existing Web resources for other training efforts and converted to meet the needs of these two groups. CCBC will also leverage CLIMAS’ long history of engaging with stakeholders in the Southwest to facilitate to use of climate information in the decision process.

Measure and Evaluate Progress Toward a Carbon-Neutral Campus | Climate

Science.gov Websites

Measure and Evaluate Progress Toward a Carbon-Neutral Campus Successful implementation of a climate action University Climate Action Planning: Among its other recommendations, AASHE recommends holding a yearly climate to build support for the climate action plan. The Educational Facilities Professional's Practical

Changes in Migration Pattern of Transhumance due to Climate Change: An Empirical Analysis of Gaddi Community of Himachal Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Transhumance is a complex and traditional livelihood system seeking to maintain equilibrium between pastures, livestock and local people in variable and inhospitable environments. In Western Himalayas in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, pastoral groups of Gaddis inhabit almost inaccessible areas, where scarce resources and extreme climatic conditions limit options for alternative land use and livelihood systems. In such a harsh and unforgiving environment, mobility in the form of transhumance has been the traditional ecological response to climatic extremes. However, recently, such additional factors as global as well as regional climate change have brought about changes in the tree line, snow line and pastoral grounds along the historical route of seasonal migration of the Gaddis. The growing unpredictability of the once static route of migration has raised the possibility of Gaddis shifting to alternative land use and land management techniques. In the present research, we explore how transhumant pastoralism has been sustained and stimulated in the context of socioeconomic and climate change in the mountainous region of Himachal Pradesh and the future challenges that it faces. Based on case study research conducted in Chamba district in Himachal Pradesh; we have analysed the status, opportunities, and constraints of transhumant pastoralism in the changing context and modeled the possible alternative land use decisions. Finally we conclude that unless there are affirmative and progressive policy and institutional framework to support transhumant system, the indigenous practice will soon disappear from this part of the world. Keywords: Climate change, Gaddis, Himachal Pradesh, Transhumance, Alternative Land Use

The Climate Change Crisis as an International Civil Rights Issue: Forging an Alliance Between Science, Activism, and Progressive Social Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, B. J.; Driver, S.

2011-12-01

If our scientific community wants to make real progress on the climate change and environmental crisis we must be willing to side with and fight for the oppressed. The national and international communities most ready to act - those hit hardest by the real impact of climate change in their day-to-day lives - need the political leadership of and a living, organic connection with scientists who are prepared to tell the truth and act on the truth of our science. A new generation of scientist-activist leaders and this strategic and mutually beneficial alliance with the oppressed will be necessary to wage an international, intransigent fight to enact and implement the social, political, and economic policies needed to mitigate the damage already done and prevent future environmental and human catastrophe. In the statement BAMN distributed to last year's Fall AGU conference we said, "there will be no shortage of mass struggle in the next period of history." This spring we saw the absolutely awe-inspiring social upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East in the form of waves of mass demonstrations in country after country. Many of those struggles, with demands for real democracy, for jobs and economic opportunities, for improved living conditions, continue to this day. In virtually every instance, these popular and progressive social movements have been led by youth: middle school, high school and college students. In the US and Europe we have seen the spread of student-led struggle around the defense of K-12 public education and on college campuses in defense of various programs, opportunities, and the character of the educational experience. The most dynamic force in these struggles has been the Latina/o, black, other underrepresented minority and immigrant youth who refuse to accept permanent second-class citizenship and a future devoid of hope and opportunity. We will discuss our experience as a youth-led civil rights organization presenting the issues of climate change as part of a broader, international fight against racism and inequality in order to bring the dynamism, boldness, optimism of youth and the power of an independent political program to the environmental movement.

A progressively wetter climate in southern East Africa over the past 1.3 million years.

PubMed

Johnson, T C; Werne, J P; Brown, E T; Abbott, A; Berke, M; Steinman, B A; Halbur, J; Contreras, S; Grosshuesch, S; Deino, A; Scholz, C A; Lyons, R P; Schouten, S; Damsté, J S Sinninghe

2016-09-08

African climate is generally considered to have evolved towards progressively drier conditions over the past few million years, with increased variability as glacial-interglacial change intensified worldwide. Palaeoclimate records derived mainly from northern Africa exhibit a 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycle overprinted on a pronounced 20,000-year (precession) beat, driven by orbital forcing of summer insolation, global ice volume and long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we present a 1.3-million-year-long climate history from the Lake Malawi basin (10°-14° S in eastern Africa), which displays strong 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycles of temperature and rainfall following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition around 900,000 years ago. Interglacial periods were relatively warm and moist, while ice ages were cool and dry. The Malawi record shows limited evidence for precessional variability, which we attribute to the opposing effects of austral summer insolation and the temporal/spatial pattern of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. The temperature history of the Malawi basin, at least for the past 500,000 years, strongly resembles past changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrigenous dust flux in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but not in global ice volume. Climate in this sector of eastern Africa (unlike northern Africa) evolved from a predominantly arid environment with high-frequency variability to generally wetter conditions with more prolonged wet and dry intervals.

Hydrological study of climate change impact on the Llobregat basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Ballinas-Gonzáles, Romeo; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Climate change may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological variables may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… In Spain, climate change scenarios describe a general trend to increase temperature and reduced precipitation. This would result in a reduction of available water between 5 and 14% that can rise to 20-22% for the scenarios of the XXI century (AEMET, 2008). This work has focused on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia (Spain), the Llobregat river basin. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydro-electric energy production. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) which deals with medium and long-term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Usually, to study the impact of climate change, future climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) are used. To adapt the large-scale information provided by GCMs to a finer spatial scale required for regional and environmental impact studies, downscaling techniques have been developed. Here, an analogues downscaling method has been applied to simulate daily precipitation projections at rain gauge locations. The HBV hydrological model has been chosen to evaluate the discharges for strategic points (dam, channel and water extractions) in different areas within the watershed. The first results have shown that the water available for supply has a tendency to decrease, implying that measures have to be taken to face the future miss.

ANALYZING INVESTMENTS FOR MANAGING GREAT LAKES LEVELS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. (R825150)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2008.

PubMed

Andrady, Anthony; Aucamp, Pieter J; Bais, Alkiviadis; Ballaré, Carlos L; Björn, Lars Olof; Bornman, Janet F; Caldwell, Martyn; Cullen, Anthony P; Erickson, David J; de Gruijl, Frank R; Häder, Donat-P; Ilyas, Mohammad; Kulandaivelu, G; Kumar, H D; Longstreth, Janice; McKenzie, Richard L; Norval, Mary; Paul, Nigel; Redhwi, Halim Hamid; Smith, Raymond C; Solomon, Keith R; Sulzberger, Barbara; Takizawa, Yukio; Tang, Xiaoyan; Teramura, Alan H; Torikai, Ayako; van der Leun, Jan C; Wilson, Stephen R; Worrest, Robert C; Zepp, Richard G

2009-01-01

After the enthusiastic celebration of the 20th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 2007, the work for the protection of the ozone layer continues. The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel is one of the three expert panels within the Montreal Protocol. This EEAP deals with the increase of the UV irradiance on the Earth's surface and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. For the past few years, interactions of ozone depletion with climate change have also been considered. It has become clear that the environmental problems will be long-lasting. In spite of the fact that the worldwide production of ozone depleting chemicals has already been reduced by 95%, the environmental disturbances are expected to persist for about the next half a century, even if the protective work is actively continued, and completed. The latest full report was published in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332, and the last progress report in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 15-27. The next full report on environmental effects is scheduled for the year 2010. The present progress report 2008 is one of the short interim reports, appearing annually.

Rainwater harvesting possibility under climate change: A basin-scale case study over western province of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Balkhair, Khaled S.; Şen, Zekâi; Masood, Amjad

2017-06-01

Groundwater reservoirs are important water resources all over the world. Especially, they are of utmost significance for arid and semi-arid regions, and therefore, a sustainable exploitation of these reservoirs needs to be ensured. The natural and most exclusive water supplier to groundwater reservoirs in Saudi Arabia is rainfall, which is characterized by sporadic and random temporal and spatial distributions, particularly under the impacts of climate change; giving rise to uncertainty in groundwater recharge quantification. Although in Saudi Arabia, intense and frequent rainfall events are rare, but they generate significant flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) structures gain vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of RWH over a basin in the western province of Saudi Arabia called Wadi Al-Lith under climate change. Climatic data is obtained from the IPCC AR5 GCMs, which is further downscaled using a regional climate model RegCM4 for the Arabian Peninsula domain. The RegCM4 is driven to simulate climatic parameters including rainfall at 25 km grid resolution for the present climate (1971-2000), and future climate (2006-2099) with representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that more durable and longer wet durations are expected with increasing surplus rainfall amounts in the far future because of climate change impacts. Consequently, future climate scenarios are expected to enhance floods and flash floods occurrences, which call for progressive measures to harness the RWH opportunity.

Land-Use and Climate : first results from the LUCID experiments ; implications for experimental design in IPCC-AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Noblet, N.; Pitman, A.; Participants, Lucid

2009-04-01

The project "Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts" (LUCID) was conceived under the auspices of IGBP-iLEAPS and GEWEX-GLASS, to address the robustness of 'local' and possible remote impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes (LCC). LUCID explores, using methodologies that major climate modelling groups recognise, those impacts of LCC that are robust - that is, above the noise generated by model variability and consistent across a suite of climate models. To start with, seven climate models were run, in ensemble mode (5 realisations per 31-years long experiment), with prescribed observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice extent (SIc). Pre-industrial and present-day simulations were used to explore the impacts of biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change. The imposed LCC perturbation led to statistically significant changes in latent heat flux and near-surface temperature over the regions of land cover change, but few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of land cover change. They also highlight a dilemma for both historical hind-casts and future projections; land cover change is regionally important, but it is not feasible within the time frame of the next IPCC (AR5) assessment to implement this change commonly across multiple models. Further analysis are in progress and will be presented to identify the continental regions where changes in LCC may have been more important than the combined changes in SSTs, SIc and CO2 between the pre-industrial times and nowadays.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

2016-03-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.

2017-12-01

Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this presentation, we report the progress of community teams currently engaged in this program from throughout Alaska.

Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

2012-11-01

Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are presented in this NASA/CP and are available to the public at http://spacescience.arc.nasa.gov/mars-climate-workshop-2012/

FOREWORD: International Conference on Planetary Boundary Layer and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djolov, G.; Esau, I.

2010-05-01

One of the greatest achievements of climate science has been the establisment of the concept of climate change on a multitude of time scales. The Earth's complex climate system does not allow a straightforward interpretation of dependences between the external parameter perturbation, internal stochastic system dynamics and the long-term system response. The latter is usually referred to as climate change in a narrow sense (IPCC, 2007). The focused international conference "Planetary Boundary Layers and Climate Change" has addressed only time scales and dynamical aspects of climate change with possible links to the turbulent processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Although limited, the conference topic is by no means singular. One should clearly understand that the PBL is the layer where 99% of biosphere and human activity are concentrated. The PBL is the layer where the energy fluxes, which are followed by changes in cryosphere and other known feedbacks, are maximized. At the same time, the PBL processes are of a naturally small scale. What is the averaged long-term effect of the small-scale processes on the long-term climate dynamics? Can this effect be recognized in existing long-term paleo-climate data records? Can it be modeled? What is the current status of our theoretical understanding of this effect? What is the sensitivity of the climate model projections to the representation of small-scale processes? Are there significant indirect effects, e.g. through transport of chemical components, of the PBL processes on climate? These and other linked questions have been addressed during the conference. The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as the amount of energy released from the Sun, volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth's orbit have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution such as the addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. These changes are likely to have influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging and not yet a solved problem. Africa is vulnerable to climate change as its ability to adaptat and mitigate is considerably dampened (IPCC, 2007). Climate change may impede a nations ability to achieve sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals, and because of that Africa (particularly sub-tropical Africa) will experience increased levels of water stress and reduced agricultural yields of up to 50% by 2020. An example of the scale of the region's vulnerability was demonstrated during the last very dry year (1991/92) when 30% of the southern African population was put on food aid and more than one million people were displaced. Climate change in Africa is essentially dependent on our understanding of the PBL processes both due to the indispensible role of the atmospheric convection in the African climate and due to its tele-connections to other regions, e.g. the tropical Pacific and Indian monsoon regions. Although numerous publications attribute the observed changes to one or another modification of the convective patterns, further progress is impeded by imperfections of the small-scale process parameterizations in the models. The uncertainties include parameter uncertainties of known physical processes, which could be reduced through better observations/modelling, as well as uncertainties in our knowledge of physical processes themselves (or structural uncertainties), which could be reduced only through theoretical development and design of new, original observations/experiments (Oppenheimer et al., Science, 2007). Arguably, the structural uncertainties is hard to reduce and this could be one of the reasons determining slow progress in narrowing the climate model uncertainty range over the last 30 years (Knutti and Hagerl, Nature Geoscience, 2008). One of the most prominent structural uncertainties in the ongoing transient climate change is related to poor understanding and hence incorrect modelling of the turbulent physics and dynamics processes in the planetary boundary layer. Nevertheless, the climate models continue to rely on physically incorrect boundary layer parameterizations (Cuxart et al., BLM, 2006), whose erroneous dynamical response in the climate models may lead to significant abnormalities in simulated climate. At present, international efforts in theoretical understanding of the turbulent mixing have resulted in significant progress in turbulence simulation, measurements and parameterizations. However, this understanding has not yet found its way to the climate research community. Vice versa, climate research is not usually addressed by the boundary layer research community. The gap needs to be closed in order to crucially complete the scientific basis of climate change studies. The focus of the proposed forum could be formulated as follows: The planetary boundary layer determines several key parameters controlling the Earth's climate system but being a dynamic sub-system, just a layer of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere/ocean, it is also controlled by the climate system and its changes. Such a dynamic relationship causes a planetary boundary layer feedback (PBL-feedback) which could be defined as the response of the surface air temperature on changes in the vertical turbulent mixing. The forum participants have discussed both climatological and fluid dynamic aspects of this response, in order to quantify their role in the Earth's transient heat uptake and its representation in climate models. The choice of the forum location and dates are motivated by the role of tropical oceans and convection in the climate system and the prominent demonstration of the climate sensitivity to the ocean heat uptake observed off Cape Town. The international conference responded to the urgent need of advancing our understanding of the complex climate system and development of adequate measures for saving the planet from environmental disaster. It also fits well with the Republic of South African government's major political decision to include the responses to global change/climate change at the very top of science and technology policy. The conference participants are grateful to the Norway Research Council and the National Research Foundation (NRF) RSA who supported the Conference through the project "Analysis and Possibility for Control of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Processes to Facilitate Adaptation to Environmental Changes" realized in the framework of the Programme for Research and Co-operation Phase II between the two countries. Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens, Cape Town contribution of securing one of the most beautiful Conference venues in the world and technical support is also highly appreciated. G. Djolov and I. Esau Editors Conference_Photo Conference Organising Comittee Djolov, G.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Esau, I.NorwayNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Hewitson, B.South AfricaUniversity of Cape Town McGregor, J.AustraliaCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Midgley, G.South AfricaSouth African National Botanical Institute Mphepya, J.South AfricaSouth African Weather Service Piketh, S.South AfricaUniversity of the Witwatersrand Pielke, R.USAUniversity of Colorado, Boulder Pienaar, K.South AfricaUniversity of the North West Rautenbach, H.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Zilitinkevich, S.FinlandUniversity of Helsinki The conference was organized by: University of Pretoria Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center With support and sponsorship from: Norwegian Research Council (grant N 197649) Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens

Using a Social Justice and Health Framework to Assess European Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

PubMed Central

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2014-01-01

Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents. PMID:25464133

Progress Towards an Interdisciplinary Science of Plant Phenology: Building Predictions Across Space, Time and Species Diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan

2013-01-01

Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord

2016-03-01

One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.

PubMed

Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger

2017-05-15

Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Essays on agricultural adaptation to climate change and ethanol market integration in the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisabokhae, Ruth Ada

Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture's role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly related, with the observable high levels of interaction between all nine cities. Information is transmitted rapidly between these markets. Price seems to be discovered (where shocks originate from) in regions of high demand and perhaps shortages, like Los Angeles and Chicago (metropolitan population centers). The Maximum Likelihood approach following Spiller and Huang's model however shows cities may not belong to the same economic market and the possibility of arbitrage does not exist between all markets.

Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects.

PubMed

Linnakoski, Riikka; Forbes, Kristian M; Wingfield, Michael J; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Asiegbu, Fred O

2017-01-01

Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO 2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica , and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO 2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions) was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe) climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5), one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes to a limited body of empirical research on the effects of projected climate changes on forestry pathosystems, and is the first to investigate interactions between Norway spruce and E. polonica . The results indicate the potential for future climate changes to alter the impact of forest pathogens with implications for productivity, while highlighting the need for a strain-specific level of understanding of the disease agents.

Long Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition at NOAA - Driving Science with 60 Year-old Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, J. H.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and its precursor organizations have provided some of the longest real-time records of the trends and distributions of climatically relevant substances in the atmosphere, some going back for 60 years (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd). The focus of these measurements has been on obtaining reliable records of global trends and distributions of these substances, but the experimental design and use of measurements have advanced over time with evolving scientific questions. Today, and into this century, scientific questions continue to progress and the observing systems that address them will need to progress accordingly. Long-term, ground based observing systems in NOAA's Global Monitoring Division focus largely on three sets of questions, two of which align with WCRP grand challenges. These are Carbon Cycle System Feedbacks, Trends in Surface Radiation and Cloud Distributions, and Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone. The data collected and analyzed help us understand radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, air quality, climate modification, renewable energy options, and arctic processes, and they are useful for verifying model output and satellite retrievals. Regional information will become increasingly important for mitigating and adapting to climate change, and this information must be accurate, precise, and without bias. NOAA, with its long-standing networks and its role in providing calibrations for partnering organizations, is well positioned to provide the linkages necessary to assure that regional measurements are comparable. This presentation will identify major, climate-relevant findings that have come from NOAA's networks in the past and will address the long-term monitoring needs to support decision-making over coming decades as society begins to seriously address climate change.

U.S. Federal Investments in Climate Change Education: They're Warming Up! (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karsten, J. L.; Niepold, F.; Wei, M.; Usgcrp Education Interagency Working Group

2010-12-01

Many similarities exist between the U.S. federal government and the climate system, in terms of their complexity. Government operates through a dynamic interplay of sub-systems (different agencies), pressure gradients (political interests), energy transformations (converting dollars into activity through Congressional appropriations, grants and contracts), and non-linear positive and negative feedback mechanisms (MOU’s, competing agency missions). ‘Viscosity’ in the system makes progress difficult. The good news is that, like the climate, federal investments in climate change education are heating up, due to man-made inputs. Individual agency investments in projects to improve and monitor public understanding of climate change and its impacts are rapidly becoming more coupled and coherent. This paper will discuss several efforts now underway. In FY 2009, dedicated, multi-million dollar funding led to creation of NSF’s Climate Change Education (CCE) and NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) grant programs, which are funding a projects to develop pedagogically-sound learning resources, professional development strategies, tool kits, and web-based clearinghouses offering scientifically accurate information about climate change to different learner audiences. NOAA has been able to firmly establish their Environmental Literacy Grant (ELG) program because of the America COMPETES Act. Related programs are being developed within the EPA and USDA’s NIFA and U.S. Forest Service. Several other agencies have revamped their strategic plans to increase focus on communicating with and educating teachers, students, policymakers, and the general public about climate change, adaptation, and mitigation issues. To foster larger networks of scientists and educators, minimize duplication, and encourage synergy and scale-up, NSF, NOAA, and NASA have initiated joint meetings of their CCE, GCCE, and ELG Principal Investigators and shared evaluations. Additional cross-agency linkages are being encouraged through NSF’s new Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) program, which launched 15 Phase I Partnerships focused around specific geographic regions or scientific themes unified by common climate change impacts. When fully implemented in Phase II, CCEP expects to increase the adoption of high quality educational resources and their impact on public climate literacy. Phase I strategic planning efforts will identify and engage relevant stakeholders, inventory existing climate change education resources for that theme or region, conduct a needs analysis, and develop a robust strategic plan for implementation in Phase II. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is the primary organizational structure through which the 13 federal agencies that conduct climate-related research, education, and outreach are coordinating their efforts. The Climate Literacy framework is one example of the constructive collaboration that has been achieved through the USGCRP Education Interagency Working Group. Additional efforts are being planned through a new Interagency Climate Communication and Education Task Force.

Consequences of a warming climate for social organisation in sweat bees.

PubMed

Schürch, Roger; Accleton, Christopher; Field, Jeremy

The progression from solitary living to caste-based sociality is commonly regarded as a major evolutionary transition. However, it has recently been shown that in some taxa, sociality may be plastic and dependent on local conditions. If sociality can be environmentally driven, the question arises as to how projected climate change will influence features of social organisation that were previously thought to be of macroevolutionary proportions. Depending on the time available in spring during which a foundress can produce worker offspring, the sweat bee Halictus rubicundus is either social or solitary. We analysed detailed foraging data in relation to climate change predictions for Great Britain to assess when and where switches from a solitary to social lifestyle may be expected. We demonstrate that worker numbers should increase throughout Great Britain under predicted climate change scenarios, and importantly, that sociality should appear in northern areas where it has never before been observed. This dramatic shift in social organisation due to climate change should lead to a bigger workforce being available for summer pollination and may contribute towards mitigating the current pollinator crisis. The sweat bee Halictus rubicundus is socially polymorphic, expressing both solitary and social forms, and is socially plastic, capable of transitioning from solitary to social forms, depending on local environmental conditions. Here, we analyse detailed foraging data in relation to climate change predictions for Great Britain to show that worker numbers and sociality both increase under predicted climate change scenarios. Especially dramatic will be the appearance of social H. rubicundus nests in the north of Britain, where previously only solitary forms are found. Particularly, if more taxa are found to be socially plastic, environmentally driven shifts in social organisation may help to mitigate future pollinator crises by providing more individuals for pollination.

Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feynman, J.

2009-12-01

During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

How Can Urban Policies Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate Global Climate Change: a Systematic Mapping Review.

PubMed

Slovic, Anne Dorothée; de Oliveira, Maria Aparecida; Biehl, João; Ribeiro, Helena

2016-02-01

Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.

The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants: A review with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic as a receptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jianmin; Hung, Hayley; Macdonald, Robie W.

2016-11-01

Following worldwide bans and restrictions on the use of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from the late 1970s, their regional and global distributions have become governed increasingly by phase partitioning between environmental reservoirs, such as air, water, soil, vegetation and ice, where POPs accumulated during the original applications. Presently, further transport occurs within the atmospheric and aquatic reservoirs. Increasing temperatures provide thermodynamic forcing to drive these chemicals out of reservoirs, like soil, vegetation, water and ice, and into the atmosphere where they can be transported rapidly by winds and then recycled among environmental media to reach locations where lower temperatures prevail (e.g., polar regions and high elevations). Global climate change, widely considered as global warming, is also manifested by changes in hydrological systems and in the cryosphere; with the latter now exhibiting widespread loss of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and thawing of permafrost. All of these changes alter the cycling and fate of POPs. There is abundant evidence from observations and modeling showing that climate variation has an effect on POPs levels in biotic and abiotic environments. This article reviews recent progress in research on the effects of climate change on POPs with the intention of promoting awareness of the importance of interactions between climate and POPs in the geophysical and ecological systems.

Climate, Water and Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2003-04-01

In light of the recent IPCC Climate Change Assessment and recent progress made in meteorological and hydrological modelling, the directors of the Nordic hydrological institutes (CHIN) initiated a research project "Climate, Water and Energy" (CWE) with funding from the Nordic Energy Research and the Nordic Council of Ministers focusing on climatic impact assessment in the energy sector. Climatic variability and change affect the hydrological systems, which in turn affect the energy sector, this will increase the risk associated with the development and use of water resources in the Nordic countries. Within the CWE project four thematic groups work on this issue of climatic change and how changes in precipitation and temperature will have direct influences on runoff. A primary aim of the CWE climate group is to derive a common scenario or a "best-guess" estimate of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent regional climate change experiments and representing the change from 1990 to 2050 under the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. A data set, along with the most important information for using the scenario is available at the project web site. The glacier group has chosen 8 glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. The long time series group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group will select and quality control time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. The hydrological modelling group has reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios, while production of new results based on the composite scenario from the CWE-climate group depends on other projects. The product of the project will be an in-depth analysis of the present status of research and know-how in the sphere of climatic and hydrological research in the Nordic countries. It will be a synthesis and integration of present research with focus on the needs of the energy sector. It will also identify and prioritise key future research areas that are of benefit to the energy sector.

Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa

2013-04-01

Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES. (R826939)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

THE RESPONSE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SALINITY TO CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Beneficial effects of restoration practices can be thwarted by climate extremes.

PubMed

Maccherini, Simona; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marignani, Michela

2018-06-01

The impacts of climate extremes on species, communities and ecosystems have become critical concerns to science and society. Under a changing climate, how restoration outcomes are affected by extreme climate variables is a largely unknown topic. We analyzed the effects of experimental factors (grazing and sowing of native species), extreme climate events (intense precipitation and extreme temperatures indexes) and their combination on the restoration progress of a dry, calcareous grassland in Tuscany (Italy) with a 1 year before/15 years continuous annual monitoring after, control/impact (BACI) experiment. Grazing had a beneficial effect on the diversity of the grassland, while sowing had a limited impact. The climatic index that most affected the entire plant community composition was the number of very heavy precipitation days. The interaction of grazing and extreme climatic indexes had a significant detrimental effect on restoration outcomes, increasing the cover of synanthropic and Cosmopolitan-Subcosmopolitan generalist species and decreasing the cover of more valuable species such endemic species. In the richest grazed plots, species richness showed a lower sensitivity to the average precipitation per wet day but in grazed site, restoration outcomes can be negatively influenced by the intensification of precipitation and temperature extremes. In a context of progressive tropicalization of the Mediterranean area, to assist managers setting achievable restoration goals, restoration practitioners should consider that climate extremes might interfere with the beneficial effects of restoration practices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lonsdale, Whitney R.; Kretser, Heidi E.; Chetkiewicz, Cheryl-Lesley B.; Cross, Molly S.

2017-12-01

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes.

PubMed

Lonsdale, Whitney R; Kretser, Heidi E; Chetkiewicz, Cheryl-Lesley B; Cross, Molly S

2017-12-01

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

PubMed Central

Asch, Rebecca G.

2015-01-01

Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends. PMID:26159416

Integration of ice-core, marine and terrestrial records for the Australian Last Glacial Maximum and Termination: a contribution from the OZ INTIMATE group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, C. S. M.; Haberle, S.; Fink, D.; Kershaw, A. P.; Barbetti, M.; Barrows, T. T.; Black, M.; Cohen, T. J.; Corrège, T.; Hesse, P. P.; Hua, Q.; Johnston, R.; Morgan, V.; Moss, P.; Nanson, G.; van Ommen, T.; Rule, S.; Williams, N. J.; Zhao, J.-X.; D'Costa, D.; Feng, Y.-X.; Gagan, M.; Mooney, S.; Xia, Q.

2006-10-01

The degree to which Southern Hemisphere climatic changes during the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene (30-8 ka) were influenced or initiated by events occurring in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is a complex issue. There is conflicting evidence for the degree of hemispheric teleconnection and an unresolved debate as to the principle forcing mechanism(s). The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because the few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere are widely dispersed and lack duplication. Here we present climatic and environmental reconstructions from across Australia, a key region of the Southern Hemisphere because of the range of environments it covers and the potentially important role regional atmospheric and oceanic controls play in global climate change. We identify a general scheme of events for the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene but a detailed reconstruction proved problematic. Significant progress in climate quantification and geochronological control is now urgently required to robustly investigate change through this period. Copyright

Climate change studies and the human sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

2017-09-01

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

2015-09-15

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-20

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. Amore » fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.« less

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

2015-11-01

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

The Hydrological Response of Snowmelt Dominated Catchments to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrigoni, A. S.; Moore, J. N.

2007-12-01

Hydrological systems dominated by snowmelt discharge contribute greater than half the freshwater resource available to the western United States. Globally, the contribution of mountain discharge to total runoff is twice the expected for their geographical coverage. Therefore, snowmelt dominated mountain catchments have proportionally a more prominent role than other systems to our freshwater resource. A changing climate, or even a more variable climate, could have a significant impact on these systems, and consequently on our freshwater resource. Ergo, a better understanding of how changes and variations in climate will influence mountain catchments is a necessity for improving future water management under predicted/proposed climate change. The research presented here is a first order analysis to improve our understanding of these systems by monitoring and analyzing high mountain catchments along the entirety of the Mission Mountain Front, Montana USA. The Mission Mountain Range is an ideal location for conducting this research as it runs directly north to south with elevations progressively increasing from 7600 feet in the northern section, to over 9700 feet at the southern end. The lower elevation catchments will be used as surrogates for variable climate change, while the high elevation catchments will be used as surrogates for a more stable, cooler, climate regime. We use a combination of USGS and Tribal stream gauges, as well as stage gauge loggers in the headwaters of the catchments, SNOTEL datasets, and weather station datasets. This information is used to determine if, how, and why the snowmelt hydrographs vary between catchments, within the catchments between the upper and lower segments, and the dominant driver or drivers of the hydrograph form in relation to changing climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. This research will improve current comprehension of how mountain catchments respond to climatic variables, and additionally will expand upon the current understanding of general catchment hydrology.

Health benefits of a low carbon economy.

PubMed

Haines, A

2012-09-01

This article summarizes a presentation given at 'Health and Well-being: the 21st Century Agenda', which focused on the potential to make progress by making appropriate connections between activity to promote health and respond to the threat of climate change. It argues that a transition to a low carbon economy would bring together two of our greatest public health challenges, supporting action to improve public health within resource constraints and action to avert climate change as far as possible. Deep cuts in emissions are needed to prevent dangerous consequences arising from climate change. In addition, many of the policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will, in themselves, have beneficial effects on public health. This article provides an overview of several modelling studies which demonstrate that well-designed initiatives that curb greenhouse gas emissions in energy, residential construction, urban transport and agricultural systems can enhance global public health, including improving health among poor populations. Some of these health co-benefits can be achieved in a relatively short time frame, and they can help offset the costs of climate change mitigation policies. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communicating climate change adaptation information using web-based platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karali, Eleni; Mattern, Kati

2017-07-01

To facilitate progress in climate change adaptation policy and practice, it is important not only to ensure the production of accurate, comprehensive and relevant information, but also the easy, timely and affordable access to it. This can contribute to better-informed decisions and improve the design and implementation of adaptation policies and other relevant initiatives. Web-based platforms can play an important role in communicating and distributing data, information and knowledge that become constantly available, reaching out to a large group of potential users. Indeed in the last decade there has been an extensive increase in the number of platforms developed for this purpose in many fields including climate change adaptation. This short paper concentrates on the web-based adaptation platforms developed in Europe. It provides an overview of the recently emerged landscape, examines the basic characteristics of a set of platforms that operate at national, transnational and European level, and discusses some of the key challenges related to their development, maintenance and overall management. Findings presented in this short paper are discussed in greater detailed in the Technical Report of the European Environment Agency Overview of climate change adaptation platforms in Europe.

Efficient and Flexible Climate Analysis with Python in a Cloud-Based Distributed Computing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2017-12-01

As climate models become progressively more advanced, and spatial resolution further improved through various downscaling projects, climate projections at a local level are increasingly insightful and valuable. However, the raw size of climate datasets presents numerous hurdles for analysts wishing to develop customized climate risk metrics or perform site-specific statistical analysis. Four Twenty Seven, a climate risk consultancy, has implemented a Python-based distributed framework to analyze large climate datasets in the cloud. With the freedom afforded by efficiently processing these datasets, we are able to customize and continually develop new climate risk metrics using the most up-to-date data. Here we outline our process for using Python packages such as XArray and Dask to evaluate netCDF files in a distributed framework, StarCluster to operate in a cluster-computing environment, cloud computing services to access publicly hosted datasets, and how this setup is particularly valuable for generating climate change indicators and performing localized statistical analysis.

Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweet, W.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, C.

2017-01-01

level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a keytechnical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, D.; Vigneault, H.; Lefebvre, R.; Savard, M. M.; Ballard, J.-M.; Qian, B.

2015-08-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentrations could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. Climate change alone (practices maintained at their current level) would contribute only 0 to 6 % to that increase according to the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

Modern nature and climate changes in Siberia: new methods and results of analysis of instrumented observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabanov, Mikhail V.

2002-02-01

Peculiarity of nature and climate changes in middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia is that the temporal variability of meteorological quantities here has a wide range and their spatial variability has a complicated zone structure. Therefore, regional monitoring of modern nature and climate changes in Siberia is of scientific interest from the viewpoint of the global changes observed. Another Siberian peculiarity is associated with the fact that there are many unique objects that have global importance both as natural complexes (boreal forests, water- bog systems, Baikal lake, etc.) And as technogenic objects (oil and gas production, coal mining, metallurgy, transport, etc.). Therefore monitoring and modeling of regional nature and climate changes in Siberia have great practical importance, which is underestimated now, for industrial development of Siberia. Taking into account the above peculiarities and tendencies on investigation of global and regional environmental and climate changes, the multidisciplinary project on Climate and Ecological Monitoring of Siberia (CEMS) was accepted to the research and development program Sibir' since 1993. To realize this project, the Climate and Ecological Observatory was established in Tomsk at the Institute for Optical Monitoring (IOM) SB RAS. At the present time the stations (the basic and background ones) of this observatory are in a progress and theory and instruments for monitoring are being developed as well. In this paper we discuss some results obtained in the framework of CEMS project that were partially published in the monographs, in scientific journals, and will be published in the Proceedings of the 8th Joint International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics and Atmosphere Physics. This review has a purpose not only to discuss the obtained regularities but also to formulate scientific and technical tasks for further investigations into the regional changes of technogenic, natural, and climate systems.

Developing Capacity for Cities to Adapt to a Changing Climate-a Case Study in Boulder, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sands, R.; Groves, D. G.; Nason, M.; Pandya, R.

2016-12-01

The City of Boulder in Colorado has undertaken many progressive climate-related initiatives, from signing the Kyoto protocol to passing a Climate Action Tax. But as the city prepared to launch its Climate Commitment document and lead a community process, it realized that one critical group that had not been fully engaged in the process was its own staff. It became clear that for organizational change to occur and for the city to meet its goals, city staff needed to develop a deeper understanding of the importance of the climate goals while also learning better how to use these goals to guide their long-term planning. In early 2016, the city launched a year-long "Climate Leaders" initiative which comprised of a series of workshops that brought together over 70 staff members with climate scientists and experts in climate adaptation planning. The first two workshops, billed as Climate 101 and 201, reviewed the best available scientific information about climate threats and potential impacts, and worked with participants to understand how climate changes could affect diverse city functions. These interactive workshops also explored ways to help city staff feel comfortable preparing for a significantly different climate and discussed ways to communicate this information to the public. From there the group split into two tracks. A "mitigation" track focused on the ways in which Boulder could meet its aggressive emissions reduction targets. The "adaptation" track developed integrated scenarios for citywide planning to highlight Boulder's vulnerability to climate change and guide adaptation planning. Bringing these two conversations together is helping city staff to explore critical linkages between mitigation and adaptation, develop common messages to build community support for climate action, and inform comprehensive climate resiliency planning. We will describe how Boulder successfully partnered with scientists and planning experts to program a year of interactive workshops to bring diverse city staff into the climate action process. We will share outcomes from the development of the integrated climate scenarios vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. Lastly we will share key lessons learned that will be valuable to other cities and jurisdictions engaging in similar climate action.

A CLEAN Network Initiative - Accelerating Transition to Post Carbon and Resilient Communities through Education and Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; Bozuwa, J.; Davis, A.; Fraser, J.; Kretser, J.; Poppleton, K. L. I.; Qusba, L.; Ruggiero, K.; Spitzer, W.; Stylinski, C.

2016-12-01

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) was formed in 2008 to help climate and energy literacy stakeholders implement the Climate and Energy Literacy Essential Principles to enable effective and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate. The ongoing conversations of the CLEAN Network have cultivated a culture of shared resources and expertise and allowed for the development of collective impact strategies. However, it has become clear that to accelerate and scale change, effective mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies must be developed by a diverse network of stakeholders at the community level to deal with the local impacts of climate change and move toward decarbonized and resilient economies. A group of CLEAN Network members, experienced in establishing effective networks and representing mature climate change education programs, came together to discuss at the community level 1) how we can collectively enable larger scale efforts to 2) develop effective strategies, 3) identify gaps in the system that limit action, and 4) coordinate possible vectors for interceding to advance community level decisions related to climate. We will describe our Theory of Change, based on both the power of communities and increasing climate literacy as a key requirement for sustained progress on the crisis climate change presents. From our Theory of Change, we have begun to outline a national monitoring strategy that can provide communities a measured way to understand their local readiness to respond to the impacts of climate change and understand the magnitude of those impacts in relation to their political and ecological economies. The scale would help describe the robustness of their programs and partnerships to address those impacts, the political climate for working in advance of pending change, and the degree of citizen engagement in resilience planning and action. The goal is to provide a common tool equivalent to GDP that communities could use to see their strengths and leverage points, and where they have the local resources to build solutions or co-develop solutions with others. Though this new tool, communities may be better able to focus on mitigation, adaptation, and the building of resilience that will put into practice the identified Theory of Change.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paynter, D.; Frölicher, T. L.; Horowitz, L. W.; Silvers, L. G.

2018-02-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long-term change in global mean surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from short atmospheric simulations over a mixed layer ocean, or inferred using a linear regression over a short-time period of adjustment. We report the actual ECS from multimillenial simulations of two Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models (GCMs), ESM2M, and CM3 of 3.3 K and 4.8 K, respectively. Both values are 1 K higher than estimates for the same models reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change obtained by regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against temperature. This underestimate is mainly due to changes in the climate feedback parameter (-α) within the first century after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized. For both GCMs it is possible to estimate ECS with linear regression to within 0.3 K by increasing CO2 at 1% per year to doubling and using years 51-350 after CO2 is constant. We show that changes in -α differ between the two GCMs and are strongly tied to the changes in both vertical velocity at 500 hPa (ω500) and estimated inversion strength that the GCMs experience during the progression toward the equilibrium. This suggests that while cloud physics parametrizations are important for determining the strength of -α, the substantially different atmospheric state resulting from a changed sea surface temperature pattern may be of equal importance.

HYDROLOGY-BIOGEOCHEMISTRY MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND TIMBER HARVEST ON WATERSHEDS. (R824803)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

State of the Earth 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester; And Others

1985-01-01

Discusses soil erosion, drought, forest systems, overfishing, global climate change, hunger, population, energy, and building a sustainable society. Emphasizes the breakdown of natural systems in Africa. (Most of the material in this article was drawn from "State of the World 1985: A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a…

REGENERATION IN GAP MODELS: PRIORITY ISSUES FOR STUDYING FOREST RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R828785)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC POTENTIAL AS PROJECTED BY GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. (R824802)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Write-Skewed: Writing in an Introductory Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delcham, Hendrick; Sezer, Renan

2010-01-01

Statistics is used in almost every facet of our daily lives: crime reports, election results, environmental/climate change, advances in business, financial planning, and progress in multifarious research. Although understanding statistics is essential for efficient functioning in the modern world (Cerrito 1996), students often do not grasp…

Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios.

Recent directions taken in water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, Harry F.

1994-01-01

Understanding and predicting global change is a major scientific focus of the late 20th century. Although atmospheric scientists have made substantial progress in developing models that account for many components of the climate system, significant progress is needed in understanding processes associated with the exchange of water, energy, and carbon between terrestrial systems and the atmosphere.To strengthen terrestrial process research, especially research associated with the interactions of water, energy, gases, nutrients, and vegetation, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an intensive study of Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB). WEBB is aimed at improving understanding of processes controlling terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes, their interactions, and their relations to climatic variables; and the ability to predict continental water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets over a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought-induced tipping point.

PubMed

Sousa-Silva, Rita; Verheyen, Kris; Ponette, Quentin; Bay, Elodie; Sioen, Geert; Titeux, Hugues; Van de Peer, Thomas; Van Meerbeek, Koenraad; Muys, Bart

2018-05-26

Understanding the processes that underlie drought-related tree vitality loss is essential for anticipating future forest dynamics, and for developing management plans aiming at increasing the resilience of forests to climate change. Forest vitality has been continuously monitored in Europe since the acid rain alert in the 1980s, and the intensive monitoring plots of ICP Forests offer the opportunity to investigate the effects of air pollution and climate change on forest condition. By making use of over 100 long-term monitoring plots, where crown defoliation has been assessed extensively since 1990, we discovered a progressive shift from a negative to a positive effect of species richness on forest health. The observed tipping point in the balance of net interactions, from competition to facilitation, has never been reported from real ecosystems outside experimental conditions; and the strong temporal consistency of our observations with increasing drought stress emphasizes its climate change relevance. Furthermore, we show that higher species diversity has reduced the severity of defoliation in the long term. Our results confirm the greater resilience of diverse forests to future climate change-induced stress. More generally, they add to an accumulating body of evidence on the large potential of tree species mixtures to face manifold disturbances in a changing world. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): Climate Science Infrastructure for Large-scale Data Management and Dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. N.

2015-12-01

Progress in understanding and predicting climate change requires advanced tools to securely store, manage, access, process, analyze, and visualize enormous and distributed data sets. Only then can climate researchers understand the effects of climate change across all scales and use this information to inform policy decisions. With the advent of major international climate modeling intercomparisons, a need emerged within the climate-change research community to develop efficient, community-based tools to obtain relevant meteorological and other observational data, develop custom computational models, and export analysis tools for climate-change simulations. While many nascent efforts to fill these gaps appeared, they were not integrated and therefore did not benefit from collaborative development. Sharing huge data sets was difficult, and the lack of data standards prevented the merger of output data from different modeling groups. Thus began one of the largest-ever collaborative data efforts in climate science, resulting in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), which is now used to disseminate model, observational, and reanalysis data for research assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, ESGF is an open-source petabyte-level data storage and dissemination operational code-base that manages secure resources essential for climate change study. It is designed to remain robust even as data volumes grow exponentially. The internationally distributed, peer-to-peer ESGF "data cloud" archive represents the culmination of an effort that began in the late 1990s. ESGF portals are gateways to scientific data collections hosted at sites around the globe that allow the user to register and potentially access the entire ESGF network of data and services. The growing international interest in ESGF development efforts has attracted many others who want to make their data more widely available and easy to use. For example, the World Climate Research Program, which provides governance for CMIP, has now endorsed the ESGF software foundation to be used for ~70 other model intercomparison projects (MIPs), such as obs4MIPs, TAMIP, CFMIP, and GeoMIP. At present, more than 40 projects disseminate their data via ESGF.

Regional climate science: lessons and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P. W.; Miles, E. L.; Whitely Binder, L.

2008-12-01

Since its founding in 1995, the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington (UW) has achieved remarkable success at translating global- and regional-scale science into forms and products that are useful to, and used by, decision-makers. From GCM scenarios to research on the connection between global climate patterns and locally important factors like floods and wildfires, CIG's strong physical science foundation is matched by a vigorous and successful outreach program. As a result, CIG and its partner the Office of Washington State Climatologist at UW have made substantial progress at bridging the gap between climate science and decision-making, and are deeply involved in advising all levels of government and many business interests on adapting to climate variability and change. This talk will showcase some of the specific activities and tools, describe lessons learned, and illustrate how such efforts fit into a "National Climate Service."

Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, Guy P.; Gallardo, Laura

2016-03-01

This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized.

The climate of Kazakhstan: an examination of current conditions and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Andrew; Ali, Maged; Althonayan, Abraham; Akhmetov, Kanat; Gazdiyeva, Bella; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Kurmanbayeva, Aygul; McCann, Meg; Mukanov, Yelzhas; Tucker, Allan; Zhumabayeva, Sara

2017-04-01

Environmental Health is an essential aspect of any successful society; indeed, it was recognised as a cornerstone of the UN's Agenda 21 action plan for sustainable development. Clean air and water, safe food, minimal exposure to toxic materials, disaster preparedness, planning for climate change and effective waste management are all fundamental to a healthy population and socio-economic progress. In recent years, particularly since 2000, Kazakhstan's economic development has been exceptional. However, health indicators such as life expectancy are lagging behind nations with similar economies. It is likely that this "health lag" is, to a large extent, caused or aggravated by the poor state of Kazakhstan's natural environment. In this paper, we focus on the role of recent and future climate change in Kazakhstan. We examine ECMWF re-analysis data, data derived directly from observations and CMIP5 climate projections for the region to understand how climate may impact environmental health in the country. This analysis is part of a larger project that aims to take a more holistic approach to the analysis of environmental health in a developing nation.

Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

2009-12-01

Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local environmental change in and around Kibale National Park. We will also incorporate knowledge of local people’s perceived risks due to change and their adaptation to that change.

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

PubMed Central

Brown, Patrick T.; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A.

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future. PMID:29391875

Communicating climate information to end-users: an experience driven by the understanding and anticipation of user needs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaumont, Diane; Huard, David; Logan, Travis; Sottile, Marie-France; Brown, Ross; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Grenier, Patrick; Braun, Marco

2013-04-01

Planning and adapting to a changing climate requires credible information about the magnitude and rate of projected changes. Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change was launched in the Province of Québec, Canada, ten years ago, with the objective of developing and providing climate information and expertise in support to adaption. Ouranos differs from most other climate service centers by integrating climate modeling activities, impacts and adaptation expertise and climate analysis services under one roof. The Climate Scenarios Group operates at the interface between climate modellers and users and is responsible for developing, producing and communicating climate scenarios to end-users in a consistent manner. This process requires close collaboration with users to define, understand and eventually anticipate their needs. The varied scientific expertise of climate scenarios specialists --who also act as communicators-- has proven to be a key element for successful communication. A large amount of effort is spent on the characterization and communication of the uncertainties involved in scenario construction. Two main activities have been put in place by the experts in climate modeling to address this: (1) a training course on climate models and (2) a fact-sheet summarizing the uncertainty and robustness of the climate change scenario provided for each I&A application. The latter tool ensures the transparency, traceability, and accountability of our products, and at the same time, encourages a sense of shared responsibility for the final choice of climate scenarios. In addition to uncertainty, two other main issues have been identified as essential in communication with users: 1) observed natural variability at relevant scales and 2) reconciliation of the projected trend with the recent observed trend. Our group has devoted substantial resources for the advancement of communication with end-users in these particular areas. This presentation will provide an overview of progress in communicating climate information at the Ouranos Consortium. We will discuss success and failures and future plans, in particular the extent to which Ouranos needs to work with users in decision-making activities.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Attributing impacts to emissions traced to major fossil energy and cement producers over specific historical time periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Allen, M. R.; Boneham, J.; Heede, R.; Dalton, M. W.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Given the progress in climate change attribution research over the last decade, attribution studies can inform policymakers guided by the UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." Historically this has primarily focused on nations, yet requests for information on the relative role of the fossil energy sector are growing. We present an approach that relies on annual CH4 and CO2 emissions from production through to the sale of products from the largest industrial fossil fuel and cement production company records from the mid-nineteenth century to present (Heede 2014). Analysis of the global trends with all the natural and human drivers compared with a scenario without the emissions traced to major carbon producers over full historical versus select periods of recent history can be policy relevant. This approach can be applied with simple climate models and earth system models depending on the type of climate impacts being investigated. For example, results from a simple climate model, using best estimate parameters and emissions traced to 90 largest carbon producers, illustrate the relative difference in global mean surface temperature increase over 1880-2010 after removing these emissions from 1980-2010 (29-35%) compared with removing these emissions over 1880-2010 (42-50%). The changing relative contributions from the largest climate drivers can be important to help assess the changing risks for stakeholders adapting to and reducing exposure and vulnerability to regional climate change impacts.

Parameterization of GCM subgrid nonprecipitating cumulus and stratocumulus clouds using stochastic/phenomenological methods. Annual technical progress report, 1 December 1992--30 November 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stull, R.B.

1993-08-27

This document is a progress report to the USDOE Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement Program (ARM). The overall project goal is to relate subgrid-cumulus-cloud formation, coverage, and population characteristics to statistical properties of surface-layer air, which in turn are modulated by heterogeneous land-usage within GCM-grid-box-size regions. The motivation is to improve the understanding and prediction of climate change by more accurately describing radiative and cloud processes.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

Climate Change and Implications for Prevention. California's Efforts to Provide Leadership.

PubMed

Balmes, John R

2018-04-01

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and the temperature of the earth's surface have been rising in parallel for decades, with the former recently reaching 400 parts per million, consistent with a 1.5°C increase in global warming. Climate change models predict that a "business as usual" approach, that is, no effort to control CO 2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, will result in a more than 2°C increase in annual average surface temperature by approximately 2034. With atmospheric warming comes increased air pollution. The concept of a "climate gap" in air quality control captures the decreased effectiveness of regulatory policies to reduce pollution with a hotter climate. Sources of greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols ("black carbon") are the same sources of air pollutants that harm health. California has adopted robust climate change mitigation policies that are also designed to achieve public health cobenefits by improving air quality. These policies include advanced clean car standards, renewable energy, a sustainable communities strategy to limit suburban sprawl, a low carbon fuel standard, and energy efficiency. A market-based mechanism to put a price on CO 2 emissions is the cap-and-trade program that allows capped facilities to trade state-issued greenhouse gas emissions allowances. The "cap" limits total greenhouse gas emissions from all covered sources, and declines over time to progressively reduce emissions. An alternative approach is a carbon tax. California's leadership on air quality and climate change mitigation is increasingly important, given the efforts to slow or even reverse implementation of such policies at the U.S. national level.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

2013-01-01

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed Central

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-01-01

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

Local Government Capacity to Respond to Environmental Change: Insights from Towns in New York State.

PubMed

Larson, Lincoln R; Lauber, T Bruce; Kay, David L; Cutts, Bethany B

2017-07-01

Local governments attempting to respond to environmental change face an array of challenges. To better understand policy responses and factors influencing local government capacity to respond to environmental change, we studied three environmental issues affecting rural or peri-urban towns in different regions of New York State: climate change in the Adirondacks (n = 63 towns), loss of open space due to residential/commercial development in the Hudson Valley (n = 50), and natural gas development in the Southern Tier (n = 62). Our analysis focused on towns' progression through three key stages of the environmental policy process (issue awareness and salience, common goals and agenda setting, policy development and implementation) and the factors that affect this progression and overall capacity for environmental governance. We found that-when compared to towns addressing open space development and natural gas development-towns confronted with climate change were at a much earlier stage in the policy process and were generally less likely to display the essential resources, social support, and political legitimacy needed for an effective policy response. Social capital cultivated through collaboration and networking was strongly associated with towns' policy response across all regions and could help municipalities overcome omnipresent resource constraints. By comparing and contrasting municipal responses to each issue, this study highlights the processes and factors influencing local government capacity to address a range of environmental changes across diverse management contexts.

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALPINE TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS IN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Transition Experiences of Disabled Young People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piggott, Linda; Houghton, Ann-Marie

2007-01-01

This paper outlines the changing employment climate and shift in attitudes towards disabled people who are expected to become economically active in order to fulfill their role as responsible citizens. We briefly describe the employment profile of disabled people and reiterate the combination of factors identified in shaping progression into the…

SIMULATION MODEL RESULTS OF LYME DISEASE INFECTIVITY RATES IN VERTEBRATE HOSTS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

SPATIAL TESTS OF THE PESTICIDE DRIFT, HABITAT DESTRUCTION, UV-B AND CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESES FOR CALIFORNIA AMPHIBIAN DECLINES. (R825285)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON ELK POPULATION DYNAMICS IN ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK, COLORADO, USA. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

HYPERSALINE CYANOBACTERIAL MATS AS INDICATORS OF ELEVATED TROPICAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE CHANGE. (R828677C001)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

NCSE's 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Ellen

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) held its 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, on January 27-29, 2015, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Crystal City, VA. The National Conference: Energy and Climate Change developed and advanced partnerships that focused on transitioning the world to a new “low carbon” and “climate resilient” energy system. It emphasized advancing research and technology, putting ideas into action, and moving forward on policy and practice. More than 900 participants from the scientific research, policy and governance, business and civil society, and educationmore » communities attended. The Conference was organized around four themes: (1) a new energy system (including energy infrastructure, technologies and efficiencies, changes in distribution of energy sources, and low carbon transportation); (2) energy, climate and sustainable development; (3) financing and markets; and (4) achieving progress (including ideas for the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The program featured six keynote presentations, six plenary sessions, 41 symposia and 20 workshops. Conference participants were involved in the 20 workshops, each on a specific energy and climate-related issue. The workshops were designed as interactive sessions, with each workshop generating 10-12 recommendations on the topic. The recommendations were prepared in the final conference report, were disseminated nationally, and continue to be available for public use. The conference also featured an exhibition and poster sessions. The National Conference on Energy and Climate Change addressed a wide range of issues specific to the U.S. Department of Energy’s programs; involved DOE’s scientists and program managers in sessions and workshops; and reached out to a broad array of DOE stakeholders.« less

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

2007-05-01

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Chollett, Iliana; Enríquez, Susana; Mumby, Peter J

2014-01-01

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) using the best proxy for acclimatization currently available; (3) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (4) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.

The evolutionary consequence of the individualistic response to climate change.

PubMed

Stewart, J R

2009-12-01

The Quaternary fossil record has abundant evidence for ecologically nonanalogue communities made up of combinations of modern taxa not seen in sympatry today. A brief review of the literature detailing these nonanalogue communities is given with a discussion of their various proposed causes. The individualistic, Gleasonian, response of species to climate and environmental change is favoured by many. The degree to which communities are nonanalogue appears to increase with greater time depth, and this progressive process is a necessary outcome of the individualistic response of species to climate change through time. In addition, it is noted that populations within species, as well as the species as a whole, respond individualistically. This paper proposes that many elements of nonanalogue communities are extinct populations, which may explain their environmentally anomalous combinations. These extinct populations are, by definition, lineages without descendents. It is further proposed that the differential extinction of populations, as a result of continuous ecological reassembly, could amount to a significant evolutionary phenomenon.

Redefining Thermal Regimes to Design Reserves for Coral Reefs in the Face of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chollett, Iliana; Enríquez, Susana; Mumby, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) using the best proxy for acclimatization currently available; (3) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (4) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress. PMID:25333380

Solomon M. Hsiang Receives 2013 Science for Solutions Award: Citation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, Michael

2014-01-01

Solomon Hsiang is representative of a new generation in the geosciences community, whose work spans several disciplines, drawing on methods and concepts from far outside the traditional physical science domain in order to make progress on difficult questions at the intersection of natural science, social science, and public policy. Broadly speaking, by examining how humanity has responded to climate variability and change in the distant and recent past, Sol's research elucidates the question of how humanity may respond to a changing climate in the future. Combining large, independent sets of social science, meteorological, and climatological data and analyzing them with tools more common in microeconomics than natural science, Sol, still at an early stage of his career, has made critical contributions to an incipient revolution in our understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of humans and their social arrangements to climate variability and change. Such insights will greatly improve the information base from which effective public policy is developed.

Drought-induced starvation of aardvarks in the Kalahari: an indirect effect of climate change.

PubMed

Rey, Benjamin; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan; Meyer, Leith C R; Hetem, Robyn S

2017-07-01

Aardvarks ( Orycteropus afer ) are elusive burrowing mammals, predominantly nocturnal and distributed widely throughout Africa except for arid deserts. Their survival may be threatened by climate change via direct and indirect effects of increasing heat and aridity. To measure their current physiological plasticity, we implanted biologgers into six adult aardvarks resident in the semi-arid Kalahari. Following a particularly dry and hot summer, five of the study aardvarks and 11 other aardvarks at the study site died. Body temperature records revealed homeothermy (35.4-37.2°C) initially, but heterothermy increased progressively through the summer, with declining troughs in the nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature reaching as low as 25°C before death, likely due to starvation. Activity patterns shifted from the normal nocturnal to a diurnal mode. Our results do not bode well for the future of aardvarks facing climate change. Extirpation of aardvarks, which play a key role as ecosystem engineers, may disrupt stability of African ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).

The Race To Understand A Changing Planet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers J.

2012-01-01

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

The race to understand a changing planet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellers, P. J.

2012-12-01

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earths - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilities to guide them into the future.

Fast-track knowledge transfer from climate studies to user's decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Côté, Hélène; de Elía, Ramón; Larrivée, Caroline; Chaumont, Diane

2017-04-01

Over the last decade, many countries implemented various initiatives to bring their scientific community to develop more research projects addressing end-user needs. This shift in priorities gave rise to new expressions such as « actionable science », « co-production of knowledge » etc. This phenomenon is noteworthy in climate and climate change related research due to the pressing needs for societies to both adapt to climate change and quickly reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Although the attempt to include users into their projects made perfect sense, academic and even governmental researchers have often been overwhelmed by the "language barrier", the variety of needs, and the magnitude of the viewpoint change required to provide salient, credible and legitimate information to decision makers. In addition, many researchers worry that their growing involvement with users might jeopardize the progress of their own scientific interests and slowdown their academic careers. Useŕs needs are not necessarily well defined nor solely driven by scientific issues. They are a more or less complex mixture of short-term obligations like the sudden realization that an imminent decision needs to take climate change into account, long-term concerns about their risks and vulnerabilities, and knowledge gaps involving interdisciplinary inputs and communication challenges. In this context, the emergence of boundary organizations is a convincing approach to build the interface between science and end users. Since a single individual or even a single organization is rarely able to completely fulfill useŕs expectations, this presentation will show how strong and productive links between academia, boundary organization and users can stimulate knowledge transfer among all parties. To that purpose, examples will be taken from the 15-year existence of Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change (Montreal, Canada). We will see how Ouranoś staff -with varied expertise in vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation, regional climate modeling and climate services- interacts with their partners in several climate related studies.

Indonesian Throughflow drove Australian climate from humid Pliocene to arid Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, B. A.; Renema, W.; Henderiks, J.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Groeneveld, J.; Castañeda, I. S.; Reuning, L.; Bogus, K.; Auer, G.; Ishiwa, T.; McHugh, C.; Gallagher, S. J.; Fulthorpe, C.; Expedition 356 Scientists, I.

2016-12-01

Our understanding of the onset of aridity in Australia and associated mechanisms is limited by the availability of long, continuous climate archives, particularly for the NW shelf in the Pliocene. Five sites were cored and logged on IODP Expedition 356, western Australian margin. Analysis of the natural gamma ray (NGR) suite of downhole logs, provide insights to the timing and rate of climate change. NGR data provide an outstanding tool to assess continental humidity (K%) and aridity (Th/K, Uppm); interpretations are supported with clay mineral data. We show progressive constriction of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the emerging Maritime Continent drove Australian climate to become drier and more variable. We identify 3 intervals of latest Miocene through early Pleistocene change: sudden onset of humidity at 5.5 Ma (Humid Interval), followed by decreased humidity (Transition Interval) and establishment of the NW dust pathway (Arid Interval) at 2.3 Ma. The Humid Interval is associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) expansion west to the South China Sea and higher Indian Ocean SSTs. Our study of the NW region confirms wetter climates ringed the arid center during the early Pliocene. Reduced moisture availability began at 3.3 Ma, coincident with cooling in the WPWP and elsewhere, global atmospheric circulation constriction and Indian Ocean subsurface freshening and cooling, a direct response to ITF constriction. Greatest aridity and the onset of the modern dust pathway, documented in Th/K and Uppm logs beginning 2.3 Ma, is coincident with orbitally- controlled climatic change, and reorganization of Indian Ocean circulation. Our data indicate Australian climate is driven by tectonic and oceanographic changes in the ITF. Such changes altered regional atmospheric moisture transport and Indian Ocean circulation patterns and led to a shift from Pacific to Indian Ocean influence on theNW Australian climate, well after the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation. We conclude that the Maritime Continent is the switchboard modulating teleconnections between monsoonal and glacial climate systems.

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

Differentiating climatic and successional influences on long-term development of a marsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Darren K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Madsen, Barbara J.; Wilcox, Douglas A.

1996-01-01

Comparison of long—term records of local wetland vegetation dynamics with regional, climate—forced terrestrial vegetation changes can be used to differentiate the rates and effects of autogenic successional processes and allogenic environmental change on wetland vegetation dynamics. We studied Holocene plant macrofossil and pollen sequences from Portage Marsh, a shallow, 18—ha marsh in northeastern Indiana. Between 10 000 and 5700 yr BP the basin was occupied by a shallow, open lake, while upland vegetation consisted of mesic forests of Pinus, Quercus, Ulmus, and Carya. At 5700 yr BP the open lake was replaced rapidly by a shallow marsh, while simultaneously Quercus savanna developed on the surrounding uplands. The marsh was characterized by periodic drawdowns, and the uplands by periodic fires. Species composition of the marsh underwent further changes between 3000 and 2000 yr BP. Upland pollen spectra at Portage Marsh and other sites in the region shifted towards more mesic vegetation during that period. The consistency and temporal correspondence between the changes in upland vegetation and marsh vegetation indicate that the major vegetational changes in the marsh during the Holocene resulted from hydrologic changes forced by regional climate change. Progressive shallowing of the basin by autogenic accumulation of organic sediment constrained vegetational responses to climate change but did not serve as the direct mechanism of change.

Did 250 years of forest management in Europe cool the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2016-04-01

Over the past two centuries European forest has evolved from being an over-exploited source of timber to a sustainably managed provider of diverse ecosystem services. Although this transition is often perceived as exemplary in resources management, the loss of unmanaged forest, the progressive shift from traditional coppice forestry to the current production-oriented management and the massive conversion of broadleaved to coniferous species are typically overlooked when assessing the impact of land-use change on climate. Here we present a study that addressed this gap by: (1) developing and reparameterizing the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management, (2) reconstructing the land-use history of Europe, accounting for changes in forest management and land cover. The model was coupled to the atmospheric model LMDz in a factorial simulation experiment to attribute climate change to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission and European land-use change since 1750 (i.e., afforestation, wood extraction and species conversion). We find that, despite considerable afforestation, Europe's forests failed to realize a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to wood extraction. Moreover, biophysical changes due to the conversion of deciduous forest into coniferous forest have offset mitigation through the carbon cycle. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe did not mitigate climate warming (Naudts et al., 2016). Naudts, K., Chen, Y., McGrath, M.J., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Otto, J., Luyssaert, S, Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming, Science, Accepted.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

PubMed Central

Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

2008-01-01

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO2 and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO2 but from the combination of CO2, CH4, and N2O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years. PMID:18252830

Modeling the resilience of Amazonian carbon pools under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdu, L. H.; Friend, A. D.; Dolman, A. J.

2013-12-01

The rainfall in the Amazon basin is derived from a mixture of moisture convergence from the Atlantic Ocean and local recycling. Changes in the moisture convergence especially during El Nino episodes, strongly influence the interannual climate variability of the basin, potentially having a strong impact on the carbon pools in vegetation and soil, leading to a changes in the ecosystem of the Amazon basin. We used a 0-dimensional model of atmospheric convection (after D'Andrea et al. 2006) to generate realistic timeseries of temperature and precipitation by changing the moisture convergence from the Atlantic Ocean with implications for the stability of Amazonian rainfall. We chose this model because it relies on very few parameters, allowing us to perform numerous sensitivity tests in relatively short time. In this model total rainfall depends on the parameter expressing the external moisture flux and the intensity of convection. Here, two values of moisture convergence were used, one representative of a wet climate (1.4 mm day-1) and one representative of a dry climate (0.54 mm day-1). We also increased the variability of the rainfall in order to investigate its impact on the carbon pools. We used these scenarios for changing precipitation, along with SRES emission scenarios for increasing atmospheric CO2 to force the Land Surface Model Hybrid8. The effects of a changing climate on the simulated soil and vegetation carbon pools have been investigated. Preliminary results show that in our model configuration and under a wet climate, the change in seasonal variability of precipitation does not seem to have a major impact on the carbon pools, which might suggest that the Amazon rainforest is relatively resilient to changes in seasonal precipitation. However, under a dry climate it may decline into a lower carbon system. The coupling of the two models is in progress with promising results for atmosphere-vegetation feedbacks. We will report on any changes in the threshold of precipitation required to change the carbon content of the system due to changed atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Monitoring Climate Variability and Change in Northern Alaska: Updates to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate and Permafrost Monitoring Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, F. E.; Clow, G. D.; Meares, D. C.

2004-12-01

Observations of long-term climate and surficial geological processes are sparse in most of the Arctic, despite the fact that this region is highly sensitive to climate change. Instrumental networks that monitor the interplay of climatic variability and geological/cryospheric processes are a necessity for documenting and understanding climate change. Improvements to the spatial coverage and temporal scale of Arctic climate data are in progress. The USGS, in collaboration with The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and The Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) currently maintains two types of monitoring networks in northern Alaska: (1) A 15 site network of continuously operating active-layer and climate monitoring stations, and (2) a 21 element array of deep bore-holes in which the thermal state of deep permafrost is monitored. Here, we focus on the USGS Alaska Active Layer and Climate Monitoring Network (AK-CLIM). These 15 stations are deployed in longitudinal transects that span Alaska north of the Brooks Range, (11 in The National Petroleum Reserve Alaska, (NPRA), and 4 in The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)). An informative overview and update of the USGS AK-CLIM network is presented, including insight to current data, processing and analysis software, and plans for data telemetry. Data collection began in 1998 and parameters currently measured include air temperature, soil temperatures (5-120 cm), snow depth, incoming and reflected short-wave radiation, soil moisture (15 cm), wind speed and direction. Custom processing and analysis software has been written that calculates additional parameters such as active layer thaw depth, thawing-degree-days, albedo, cloudiness, and duration of seasonal snow cover. Data from selected AK-CLIM stations are now temporally sufficient to begin identifying trends, anomalies, and inter-annual variability in the climate of northern Alaska.

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

2015-01-01

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review.

PubMed

Mboera, Leonard E G; Mayala, Benjamin K; Kweka, Eliningaya J; Mazigo, Humphrey D

2011-12-01

Climate change (CC) has a number of immediate and long-term impacts on the fundamental determinants of human health. A number of potential human health effects have been associated either directly or indirectly with global climate change. Vulnerability to the risks associated with CC may exacerbate ongoing socio-economic challenges. The objective of this review was to analyse the potential risk and vulnerability in the context of climate-sensitive human diseases and health system in Tanzania. Climate sensitive vector- and waterborne diseases and other health related problems and the policies on climate adaptation in Tanzania during the past 50 years are reviewed. The review has shown that a number of climate-associated infectious disease epidemics have been reported in various areas of the country; mostly being associated with increase in precipitation and temperature. Although, there is no single policy document that specifically addresses issues of CC in the country, the National Environmental Management Act of 1997 recognizes the importance of CC and calls for the government to put up measures to address the phenomenon. A number of strategies and action plans related to CC are also in place. These include the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, the National Action Programme, and the National Bio-safety Framework. The government has put in place a National Climate Change Steering Committee and the National Climate Change Technical Committee to oversee and guide the implementation of CC activities in the country. Recognizing the adverse impacts of natural disasters and calamities, the government established a Disaster Management Division under the Prime Minister's Office. Epidemic Preparedness and Response Unit of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare is responsible for emergency preparedness, mostly disease outbreaks. However, specific climate changes associated with human health issues are poorly addressed in the MoHSW strategies and the national health research priorities. In conclusion, CC threatens to slow, halt or reverses the progress the country has made or is making to achieve its national and millennium development goals. It is therefore important that Tanzania prepares itself to appropriately address CC impact on human health. It is equally important that policy makers and other stakeholders are engaged in a process to update and adapt priorities, mobilize resources and build interdisciplinary research and implementation capacity on climate change and its mitigation.

Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Daniel H.

2015-02-01

Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.

Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

2015-12-01

Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irby, Isaac D.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Da, Fei; Hinson, Kyle E.

2018-05-01

The Chesapeake Bay region is projected to experience changes in temperature, sea level, and precipitation as a result of climate change. This research uses an estuarine-watershed hydrodynamic-biogeochemical modeling system along with projected mid-21st-century changes in temperature, freshwater flow, and sea level rise to explore the impact climate change may have on future Chesapeake Bay dissolved-oxygen (DO) concentrations and the potential success of nutrient reductions in attaining mandated estuarine water quality improvements. Results indicate that warming bay waters will decrease oxygen solubility year-round, while also increasing oxygen utilization via respiration and remineralization, primarily impacting bottom oxygen in the spring. Rising sea level will increase estuarine circulation, reducing residence time in bottom waters and increasing stratification. As a result, oxygen concentrations in bottom waters are projected to increase, while oxygen concentrations at mid-depths (3 < DO < 5 mg L-1) will typically decrease. Changes in precipitation are projected to deliver higher winter and spring freshwater flow and nutrient loads, fueling increased primary production. Together, these multiple climate impacts will lower DO throughout the Chesapeake Bay and negatively impact progress towards meeting water quality standards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load. However, this research also shows that the potential impacts of climate change will be significantly smaller than improvements in DO expected in response to the required nutrient reductions, especially at the anoxic and hypoxic levels. Overall, increased temperature exhibits the strongest control on the change in future DO concentrations, primarily due to decreased solubility, while sea level rise is expected to exert a small positive impact and increased winter river flow is anticipated to exert a small negative impact.

A Framework for Addressing Skeptics' Claims Using Evidence-Based Argumentation: Lessons Learned from Educational Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Edwards, A.; Henderson, A.

2012-12-01

In science education, climate change is an issue that is especially useful for teaching concepts spanning several fields of science, as well the nature and practices of science. In response, we are developing a NASA-funded curriculum, titled Climate Science Investigations (CSI): South Florida, that teaches high school and first-year undergraduate level students how to analyze and use scientific data answer questions about climate change. To create an effective curriculum, we integrated lessons learned from our educational research conducted within our elementary science methods courses (Lambert, Lindgren, & Bleicher, 2012). For the past few years, we have been integrating climate science in our courses as a way to teach standards across several science disciplines and assessing our preservice teachers' gains in knowledge over the semesters. More recently, given the media attention and reports on the public's shift in opinion toward being more skeptical (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011), we have assessed our students' perceptions about climate change and implemented strategies to help students use evidence-based scientific argumentation to address common claims of climate skeptics. In our elementary science methods courses, we framed climate change as a crosscutting theme, as well as a core idea, in the Next Generation Science Standards. We proposed that the issue and science of climate change would help preservice teachers not only become more interested in the topic, but also be more prepared to teach core science concepts spanning several disciplines (physical, life, and earth sciences). We also thought that highlighting the "practice of scientific inquiry" by teaching students to develop evidence-based arguments would help the preservice teachers become more analytical and able to differentiate scientific evidence from opinions, which could ultimately influence their perceptions on climate change. Lessons learned from our preservice teachers' conceptions and perceptions about climate change, as well as the difficulties in engaging in evidence-based argumentation, have informed and enhanced the framework for development of the CSI: South Florida curriculum. The modules are sequenced according to the proposed learning progression. First, students are introduced to the nature of science and Earth's energy balance. Students then investigate the temporal and spatial temperature data to answer the question of whether Earth is warming. Students also compare natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change, investigate the various observed and projected consequences of climate change in the fourth module, and examine ways to mitigate the effects of and adapt to climate change. Finally, students learn how to refute skeptics' claims by providing counter evidence and reasoning of why the skeptics' claim is not the appropriate explanation. This paper describes our conceptual framework for teaching students how to address the skeptics' claims using the content learned in the CSI: South Florida curriculum and evidence-based argumentation.

Impact of climate change upon vector born diseases in Europe and Africa using ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy

2010-05-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.

Spatio-temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Exposito-Alonso, Moises; Brennan, Adrian C; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier

2018-06-27

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness-related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life-history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north-western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north-western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north-western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Control of the multimillennial wildfire size in boreal North America by spring climatic conditions

PubMed Central

Ali, Adam A.; Blarquez, Olivier; Girardin, Martin P.; Hély, Christelle; Tinquaut, Fabien; El Guellab, Ahmed; Valsecchi, Verushka; Terrier, Aurélie; Bremond, Laurent; Genries, Aurélie; Gauthier, Sylvie; Bergeron, Yves

2012-01-01

Wildfire activity in North American boreal forests increased during the last decades of the 20th century, partly owing to ongoing human-caused climatic changes. How these changes affect regional fire regimes (annual area burned, seasonality, and number, size, and severity of fires) remains uncertain as data available to explore fire–climate–vegetation interactions have limited temporal depth. Here we present a Holocene reconstruction of fire regime, combining lacustrine charcoal analyses with past drought and fire-season length simulations to elucidate the mechanisms linking long-term fire regime and climatic changes. We decomposed fire regime into fire frequency (FF) and biomass burned (BB) and recombined these into a new index to assess fire size (FS) fluctuations. Results indicated that an earlier termination of the fire season, due to decreasing summer radiative insolation and increasing precipitation over the last 7.0 ky, induced a sharp decrease in FF and BB ca. 3.0 kyBP toward the present. In contrast, a progressive increase of FS was recorded, which is most likely related to a gradual increase in temperatures during the spring fire season. Continuing climatic warming could lead to a change in the fire regime toward larger spring wildfires in eastern boreal North America. PMID:23213207

Developing Climate Resilience Toolkit Decision Support Training Sectio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livezey, M. M.; Herring, D.; Keck, J.; Meyers, J. C.

2014-12-01

The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is a Federal government effort to address the U.S. President's Climate Action Plan and Executive Order for Climate Preparedness. The toolkit will provide access to tools and products useful for climate-sensitive decision making. To optimize the user experience, the toolkit will also provide access to training materials. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been building a climate training capability for 15 years. The target audience for the training has historically been mainly NOAA staff with some modified training programs for external users and stakeholders. NOAA is now using this climate training capacity for the CRT. To organize the CRT training section, we collaborated with the Association of Climate Change Officers to determine the best strategy and identified four additional complimentary skills needed for successful decision making: climate literacy, environmental literacy, risk assessment and management, and strategic execution and monitoring. Developing the climate literacy skills requires knowledge of climate variability and change, as well as an introduction to the suite of available products and services. For the development of an environmental literacy category, specific topics needed include knowledge of climate impacts on specific environmental systems. Climate risk assessment and management introduces a process for decision making and provides knowledge on communication of climate information and integration of climate information in planning processes. The strategic execution and monitoring category provides information on use of NOAA climate products, services, and partnership opportunities for decision making. In order to use the existing training modules, it was necessary to assess their level of complexity, catalog them, and develop guidance for users on a curriculum to take advantage of the training resources to enhance their learning experience. With the development of this CRT training section, NOAA has made significant progress in sharing resources with the external community.

Role of volcanism in climate and evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Axelrod, D.I.

1981-01-01

Several major episodes of Tertiary explosive volcanism coincided with sharply lowered temperature as inferred from oxygen-isotope composition of foraminiferal tests in deep-sea cores. At these times, fossil floras in the western interior recorded significant changes. Reductions in taxa that required warmth occurred early in the Paleogene. Later, taxa that demand ample summer rain were reduced during a progressive change reflecting growth of the subtropic high. Other ecosystem changes that appear to have responded to volcanically induced climatic modifications include tachytely in Equidae (12 to 10 m.y. B.P.), rapid evolution of grasses (7 to 5 m.y. B.P.), evolution of marine mammals,more » and plankton flucuations. Although Lake Cretaceous extinctions commenced as epeiric seas retreated, the pulses of sharply lowered temperature induced by explosive volcanism, together with widespread falls of volcanic ash, may have led to extinction of dinosaurs, ammonites, cycadeoids, and other Cretaceous taxa. earlier, as Pangaea was assembled, Permian extinctions resulted not only from the elimination of oceans, epeiric seas, and shorelines, and the spread of more-continental climates, bu also from the climatic effects of major pulses of global volcanism and Gondwana glaciation.« less

Earth orbital variations and vertebrate bioevolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclean, Dewey M.

1988-01-01

Cause of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition mammalian extinctions at the end of the last age is the subject of debate between those advocating human predation and climate change. Identification of an ambient air temperature (AAT)-uterine blood flow (UBF) coupling phenomenon supports climate change as a factor in the extinctions, and couples the extinctions to earth orbital variations that drive ice age climatology. The AAT-UBF phenomenon couples mammalian bioevolution directly to climate change via effects of environmental heat upon blood flow to the female uterus and damage to developing embryos. Extinctions were in progress during climatic warming before the Younger Dryas event, and after, at times when the AAT-UBF couple would have been operative; however, impact of a sudden short-term cooling on mammals in the process of adapting to smaller size and relatively larger S/V would have been severe. Variations in earth's orbit, and orbital forcing of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, were causes of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. Coincidence of mammalian extinctions with terminations of the more intense cold stages links mammalian bioevolution to variations in earth's orbit. Earth orbital variations are a driving source of vertebrate bioevolution.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998-): a climate change-related public health narrative.

PubMed

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec's new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human-environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a "public health narrative" presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998-2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002-2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006-2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and "transfrontier knowledge-to-action" for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998–): a climate change-related public health narrative

PubMed Central

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec’s new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human–environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a “public health narrative” presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998–2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002–2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006–2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and “transfrontier knowledge-to-action” for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures. PMID:21966228

Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2017-10-01

Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.

The Psychology of Climate Change Communication - Insights from the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marx, S.

2010-12-01

Natural scientists have made great strides in recent years to improve their understanding of the complex issue of global climate change. Despite the progress made, there continues to be a persistent gap between the knowledge and concern among members of the climate science community and translation of such scientific expertise into effective climate change policies and the general public’s behavioral choices. Communication is breaking down at the intersection of climate science, policy, and behavior change. Part of the reason is that, to date, social science research has not been sufficiently exploited to help individuals and groups incorporate information about climate change and environmental risk into decision making. The presentation will highlight research conducted at the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED). This presentation will discuss barriers to behavioral change and provide suggestions for improving communication about climate change: Typical science communication requires analytic processing, some level of expertise, at a minimum interest. For most people abstract information does not translate into powerful vivid images that would trigger action. Furthermore, we have found that people’s interpretation of scientific uncertainty can get in the way of using forecasts and projections. Other barriers include public risk perceptions and attitudes, cultural values, and myopia, as well as the importance that people place on self-interest/economic goals vs. collective interest/social goals. Many of these obstacles can be overcome and communication of climate change information can be improved by presenting a combination of affective information (vicarious experience, scenarios, narratives, and analogies) and scientific data; yet there are also downsides to the overuse of emotional appeals (such as the finite pool of worry and the single action bias); tapping into social affiliations and group identities can motivate the activation of social goals in favor or self interest; early involvement of stakeholders through participatory processes can help identify key concerns and information needs which can then be addressed in a tailored approach; taking advantage of default effects can make it easier for people to choose environmentally and socially beneficial options. Using research into the reactions of groups as disparate as African farmers and conservative U.S. voters, we offer insights on how scientists, educators, journalists and others can effectively connect with wider audiences. The communication principles presented in this talk can be applied beyond climate change and to science communication in general.

Using critical evaluation to reappraise plausibility judgments: A critical cognitive component of conceptual change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, D.

2011-12-01

Plausibility judgments-although well represented in conceptual change theories (see, for example, Chi, 2005; diSessa, 1993; Dole & Sinatra, 1998; Posner et al., 1982)-have received little empirical attention until our recent work investigating teachers' and students' understanding of and perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010, 2011). In our first study with undergraduate students, we found that greater plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate accounted for significantly greater understanding of weather and climate distinctions after instruction, even after accounting for students' prior knowledge (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a follow-up study with inservice science and preservice elementary teachers, we showed that anger about the topic of climate change and teaching about climate change was significantly related to implausible perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2011). Results from our recent studies helped to inform our development of a model of the role of plausibility judgments in conceptual change situations. The model applies to situations involving cognitive dissonance, where background knowledge conflicts with an incoming message. In such situations, we define plausibility as a judgment on the relative potential truthfulness of incoming information compared to one's existing mental representations (Rescher, 1976). Students may not consciously think when making plausibility judgments, expending only minimal mental effort in what is referred to as an automatic cognitive process (Stanovich, 2009). However, well-designed instruction could facilitate students' reappraisal of plausibility judgments in more effortful and conscious cognitive processing. Critical evaluation specifically may be one effective method to promote plausibility reappraisal in a classroom setting (Lombardi & Sinatra, in progress). In science education, critical evaluation involves the analysis of how evidentiary data support a hypothesis and its alternatives. The presentation will focus on how instruction promoting critical evaluation can encourage individuals to reappraise their plausibility judgments and initiate knowledge reconstruction. In a recent pilot study, teachers experienced an instructional scaffold promoting critical evaluation of two competing climate change theories (i.e., human-induced and increasing solar irradiance) and significantly changed both their plausibility judgments and perceptions of correctness toward the scientifically-accepted model of human-induced climate change. A comparison group of teachers who did not experience the critical evaluation activity showed no significant change. The implications of these studies for future research and instruction will be discussed in the presentation, including effective ways to increase students' and teachers' ability to be critically evaluative and reappraise their plausibility judgments. With controversial science issues, such as climate change, such abilities may be necessary to facilitate conceptual change.

Drought and cooler temperatures are associated with higher nest survival in Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Conrey, R.Y.; Skagen, S.K.

2012-01-01

Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests) and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.

78 FR 23949 - Sunkhaze Meadows National Wildlife Refuge and Carlton Pond Waterfowl Production Area, Penobscot...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-23

... Maine Coastal Islands NWR, 9 Water Street, Rockland, ME 04841. For more information on locations for... newsletters updating the public on our progress with the CCP. We received comments on topics such as the potential effects of climate change, improving biological connectivity, forest management, potential...

Conservation of Animal Genetic Resources (AnGR): the Next Decade

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

After 20 years, progress has been made in conserving AnGR; but how it will be in ten years? Viewing gene banks and in situ conservation in the context of food security, climate change, and product demand suggest a more efficient use of these practices to support sustainable production. Gene banks sh...

Disrupting the Culture of Silence: Confronting Gender Inequality and Making Change in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Welde, Kristine, Ed.; Stepnick, Andi, Ed.

2014-01-01

Despite tremendous progress toward gender equality and equity in institutions of higher education, deep patterns of discrimination against women in the academy persist. From the "chilly climate" to the "old boys' club," women academics must navigate structures and cultures that continue to marginalize, penalize, and undermine…

Current progress towards the metabolic engineering of plant oil for hydroxy fatty acids production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vegetable oil is not only edible but also can be used for industrial purposes. The industrial demand for vegetable oil will increase with the future depletion of fossil fuels and environmental problems such as climate change, caused by increased carbon dioxide in the air. Some plants accumulate high...

[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

2017-01-01

The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly influenced by the climate and human factors.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-01-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already been endorsed by many leading scientific professional societies and academies of science worldwide. These reports are considered as definitive summaries of the state of the science. In 2007, in recognition of its exceptional accomplishments, the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize equally with Al Gore. The present era is characterized not only by the reality and seriousness of human-caused climate change, but also by a young yet powerful science that enables us to understand much about the climate change that has occurred already and that awaits in the future. The development of GCMs is a critical part of the scientific story, and the development of the IPCC is a key factor in connecting the science to the perceptions and priorities of the global public and policymakers. GCMs and the IPCC have co-evolved and strongly influenced one another, as both scientists and the world at large have worked to confront the challenge of climate change.

A Unified Approach to Quantifying Feedbacks in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, K. E.

2008-12-01

In order to speed progress in reducing uncertainty in climate projections, the processes that most strongly influence those projections must be identified. It is of some importance, therefore, to assess the relative strengths of various climate feedbacks and to determine the degree to which various earth system models (ESMs) agree in their simulations of these processes. Climate feedbacks have been traditionally quantified in terms of their impact on the radiative balance of the planet, whereas carbon cycle responses have been assessed in terms of the size of the perturbations to the surface fluxes of carbon dioxide. In this study we introduce a diagnostic strategy for unifying the two approaches, which allows us to directly compare the strength of carbon-climate feedbacks with other conventional climate feedbacks associated with atmospheric and surface changes. Applying this strategy to a highly simplified model of the carbon-climate system demonstrates the viability of the approach. In the simple model we find that even if the strength of the carbon-climate feedbacks is very large, the uncertainty associated with the overall response of the climate system is likely to be dominated by uncertainties in the much larger feedbacks associated with clouds. This does not imply that the carbon cycle itself is unimportant, only that changes in the carbon cycle that are associated with climate change have a relatively small impact on global temperatures. This new, unified diagnostic approach is suitable for assessing feedbacks in even the most sophisticated earth system models. It will be interesting to see whether our preliminary conclusions are confirmed when output from the more realistic models is analyzed. This work was carried out at the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.

USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

2016-12-01

One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions.

PubMed

Krishnaswamy, Jagdish; John, Robert; Joseph, Shijo

2014-01-01

Global climate change has emerged as a major driver of ecosystem change. Here, we present evidence for globally consistent responses in vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in the world's mountain ecosystems located in the pan-tropical belt (30°N-30°S). We analyzed decadal-scale trends and seasonal cycles of vegetation greenness using monthly time series of satellite greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and climate data for the period 1982-2006 for 47 mountain protected areas in five biodiversity hotspots. The time series of annual maximum NDVI for each of five continental regions shows mild greening trends followed by reversal to stronger browning trends around the mid-1990s. During the same period we found increasing trends in temperature but only marginal change in precipitation. The amplitude of the annual greenness cycle increased with time, and was strongly associated with the observed increase in temperature amplitude. We applied dynamic models with time-dependent regression parameters to study the time evolution of NDVI-climate relationships. We found that the relationship between vegetation greenness and temperature weakened over time or was negative. Such loss of positive temperature sensitivity has been documented in other regions as a response to temperature-induced moisture stress. We also used dynamic models to extract the trends in vegetation greenness that remain after accounting for the effects of temperature and precipitation. We found residual browning and greening trends in all regions, which indicate that factors other than temperature and precipitation also influence vegetation dynamics. Browning rates became progressively weaker with increase in elevation as indicated by quantile regression models. Tropical mountain vegetation is considered sensitive to climatic changes, so these consistent vegetation responses across widespread regions indicate persistent global-scale effects of climate warming and associated moisture stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cool Science: Engaging Adult and K-16 Audiences in Climate Change Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

2012-12-01

A team of educators and scientists from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and the University of Massachusetts Boston will report on an informal science learning research project using mass transit spaces in Lowell, MA. Cool Science (CS) uses advertising spaces on buses and terminals to engage the public with an Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) learning experience. K-16 classrooms throughout Massachusetts will submit original artwork that conveys a scientific concept central to understanding climate change. The best 6 works submitted will be printed and placed on every bus in the city over a 6 month period during the first half of 2013. CS aims to promote and evaluate learning about climate change science among the general adult public and k-16 students/teachers. Cool Science offers teachers an efficient and effective means of seamlessly bringing the study of climate change into classroom learning both within science and across disciplines. The products of this effort are then used to improve public engagement with the science of climate change in mass transit environments. Cool Science is an example of Science, Technology, Engineering, Art and Math education (STEAM). The goals of CS are: 1) Engage professors, teachers, and their respective students in a climate change science communication competition. 2) Run the winning 6 selected placards and posters throughout the LRTA. 3) Identify how different communities of risk among the riding public approach and understand climate change. 4) Identify the advantages and disadvantages of using buses as a context for research on informal science learning. 5) Determine the extent to which student artwork serves as a trusted source of information. As advances in technology allow for more scientific knowledge to be generated, the role of informal education to improve adult understanding of science has never been greater. We see the convergence of circumstances (ISE, climate change, OHMM, mobile technology) as an enormous opportunity develop and evaluate a new approach to improving the level of scientific literacy among adults. Cool Science is an example of how an individual's daily routine may be enhanced with an informal science learning opportunity. This paper will report on project progress, research challenges encountered to date, and present preliminary findings. Among the results presented will be the 6 winning student artworks, analysis of teacher/student interviews, and audience attitudes and knowledge of climate change prior to the intervention. In addition, a comparison of website use before and during the implementation of the public learning campaign will be available.; Learning the Climate Change Science on the Go!

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-04-05

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Orographic Barriers, Rainshadows, and Earth Surface Processes in the Central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Strecker, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Central Andes of NW Argentina, northern Chile, and SW Bolivia are characterized by a steep E-W topographic, climatic and environmental gradient. The first windward topographic rise in the eastern Central Andes forces high orographic rainfall and dense vegetation. In contrast, the higher-elevation areas of the windward flanks become progressively drier, until arid conditions are attained in the orogen interior. On seasonal, annual, and inter-annual timescales, large rainstorms may propagate into the semi-arid to arid high-elevation sectors and cause erosion and mass-transport processes that impact infrastructure and the natural environment. Similar to these present-day effects of climate variability the Central Andes experienced pronounced paleoclimatic changes with deeper penetration of moisture into the orogen and thus an orogenward shift of the climate gradient during Pleistocene and Holocene times, lasting several millennia. In this presentation, we demonstrate the impact of climate change on Earth surface processes at different timescales ranging from the late Pleistocene to the past decade. For millennial timescales and beyond, we rely on field observations, dating of geomorphic markers, erosion rates from cosmogenic nuclide dating, and the analysis of sedimentary archives to reconstruct past environmental conditions. For the last decades we use, satellite-derived rainfall and landcover observations, climate models, hydrometeorologic data, and riverbed-elevation changes are used to characterize environmental and atmospheric conditions. Decadal-scale climate variability shows statistically significant hydrometeorologic trends and exhibits changes of fluvial-transport magnitudes. Hydrometeorologic data, their trends and change points suggest that highest rainfall magnitudes have increased most in the past decades, resulting in large, event-driven mass-transport processes with fundamental impacts on population and infrastructure.

Climatevoices.org -- Engaging an Array of U.S. Public Audiences in the Science of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, C.

2014-12-01

A significant number of U.S. citizens have real concerns that actions to curb climate change threaten prosperity and basic freedoms and present an affront to their own values. Others are so worried that climate change will destroy Earth's environment and any prospects for their descendants that they are either frantic to find solutions, or too discouraged to act. To attempt to reach these disparate audiences with critical scientific information from reports such as the IPCC and NCA, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and the United Nations Foundation initiated the Scientist Citizen Initiative, and launched Climate Voices - Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) in April of this year. This presentation will address the trials and errors of establishing such a network, engaging scientists across the country, and creating public demand for such a resource. The major focus will be lessons still being learned about reaching diverse local audiences; gauging and implementing the varied approach necessary to engage such audiences; and enabling scientists to initiate public conversations involving fellow citizens in discussion of climate change observations, impacts, and solutions. How can partners be identified and involved that deliver mixed audiences ranging from the Six Americas' "alarmed and concerned" to the "doubtful and dismissive?" [Yale Project on Climate Communication] How can synthesis report results be made compelling and relevant to such audiences? How can such an effort be implemented across the entire country? How can its accomplishments and failures be assessed and evaluated? This presentation will provide answers in progress to these questions.

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Iida, A.; Nakatani, J.; Noda, K.; Take, M.; Nakamura, S.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate and socioeconomic change in the future are important factors to consider when discussing the issues of sustainable development in the Pacific Islands, since their impacts here are relatively large compared to those in other regions due to the severe limitation of internal resources and the external dependency of the life essentials. The tourism industry is the key driving force behind the economic growth in island region and it is promoted by the environmental attractions. This study constructs scenarios that foresees the effects of these changes and assesses the subsequent impact on both the local community and the tourism industry. In this study, the scenarios have been developed based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The progress of climate change was expected to affect the attraction of tourists as well as resources availability and food production. The difference of SSPs was expected to affect the quality of life in the local society and the quantity and/or the quality of tourism. A downscale and bias-correction using a local dataset was applied to assess the impacts of climate change, and the relationships between GDP, population, and estimated land availability in the current situation were applied to assess the impact of socioeconomic change. As case studies, the scenarios were constructed to assess the impacts in the Republic of Palau and Ishigaki Island, Japan. Both are typical islands where tourism is the main industry. The situation of environmental resources, local society, and tourism under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions was assessed using these scenarios. The creation of reasonable projections under appropriate scenarios can contribute to sustainable development not only in these islands but also in most Pacific Islands.

Do Knickpoints Unzip Watersheds? Longitudinal Observations of Terrace and Hillslope Response to Mainstem Incision along the South Fork Eel River, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehrs, K.; Crosby, B. T.

2017-12-01

River response to changes in climate and relative base level often leave behind a legacy of transient landforms that enable the interpretation of past events. The dominant paradigm is that base level fall initiates a wave of mainstem incision that progressively transmits change upstream. Mainstem-adjacent hillslopes coupled to the channel subsequently respond as their toe slopes are steepened. To test this paradigm, we first use a longitudinal set of mainstem terrace ages to evaluate whether incision incrementally progresses upstream or is contemporaneous. Second, we explore longitudinal variations in mainstem-adjacent mass movements to evaluate whether they reflect a time and space progression in response. The South Fork Eel River in northern California contains over 600 mainstem-adjacent mass movements and 60 m tall, longitudinally extensive strath terraces that record a landscape response to river incision. We use Optically Stimulated Luminescence, with feldspars and coarse-grained sampling technique, to determine the depositional age of alluvial fill atop the strath terrace. If terrace abandonment progressively young upstream, this suggests that base level fall was not spatially contemporaneous, but rather time progressive. As a consequence, the age, form, and extent of mass wasting events should also vary longitudinally. Because terraces isolate hillslopes from the base level fall signal, we use these surfaces to quantify hillslope form and function independent of that forcing. Preliminary results using mainstem-parallel, 1 m LiDAR, show significant variation in size of mass movements throughout the basin, with planar, linearly moving translational landslides dominating throughout the catchment. In the lower basin, well downstream of the current knickzone, we see an increase in mass movement concentration, reactivation, and overall extent of mass movements. Multiple factors confound our interpretation of hillslope morphology and response, due to changes in lithology, climate, and river sinuosity throughout the catchment.

"Zweckoptimismus" and the Paris process will not save the world from climate catastrophe.

PubMed

Clémençon, Raymond

2018-03-01

Politicians, government officials, business representatives, and nongovernmental climate activists all in various ways emphasize what they see as progress being made in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, even if they continue to warn of the dire consequences of business as usual. Indeed, there is no lack of encouraging private and public sector initiatives on climate change. Some macro trends seem to be moving in the right direction, as well. But, closer scrutiny shows that these positive trends are still far from adding up to the necessary fundamental shift in the global energy economy. Furthermore, the public may greatly overestimate the advancement of renewable solar and wind energy technology, which contributes to a false sense of progress and lessens political urgency. Without determined and reinvigorated political leadership from the European Union (EU), there is little hope that necessary emission reduction goals to stay below 2 °C above preindustrial levels can be met. The EU has driven international climate policy from the beginning of climate negotiations, and there is unfortunately no other source of leadership in sight. It will require difficult political decisions to be taken sooner rather than later to force a much quicker domestic energy transition and to raise financing to help developing countries with their own energy transition and adaptation to a rapidly warming world. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:198-201. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semiannual Progress Report October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2011-04-02

This report summarizes work carried out by the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) from October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011. It discusses ESG-CET highlights for the reporting period, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations, and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project and to find previous reports, please visit the ESG-CET Web sites: http://esg-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ and/or https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/esgcet/Home. This report will be forwarded to managers in the Department of Energy (DOE) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), as well as national and international collaborators andmore » stakeholders (e.g., those involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES); SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science; the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP); the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)), and also to researchers working on a variety of other climate model and observation evaluation activities. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); and Don Middleton, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The ESG-CET team is a group of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include eight laboratories and two universities: ANL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), LLNL, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NCAR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)/NOAA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute (USC/ISI). All ESG-CET work is accomplished under DOE open-source guidelines and in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders, domain researchers, and scientists. Through the ESG project, the ESG-CET team has developed and delivered a production environment for climate data from multiple climate model sources (e.g., CMIP (IPCC), CESM, ocean model data (e.g., Parallel Ocean Program), observation data (e.g., Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Microwave Limb Sounder), and analysis and visualization tools) that serves a worldwide climate research community. Data holdings are distributed across multiple sites including LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, and ORNL as well as unfunded partners sites such as the Australian National University (ANU) National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), and NASA/JPL. As we transition from development activities to production and operations, the ESG-CET team is tasked with making data available to all users who want to understand it, process it, extract value from it, visualize it, and/or communicate it to others. This ongoing effort is extremely large and complex, but it will be incredibly valuable for building 'science gateways' to critical climate resources (such as CESM, CMIP5, ARM, NARCCAP, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), etc.) for processing the next IPCC assessment report. Continued ESG progress will result in a production-scale system that will empower scientists to attempt new and exciting data exchanges, which could ultimately lead to breakthrough climate science discoveries.« less

Evolving the US Climate Resilience Toolkit to Support a Climate-Smart Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Niepold, F., III; Fox, J. F.; Herring, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Hall, N.; Gardiner, N.

2015-12-01

Communities, businesses, resource managers, and decision-makers at all levels of government need information to understand and ameliorate climate-related risks. Likewise, climate information can expose latent opportunities. Moving from climate science to social and economic decisions raises complex questions about how to communicate the causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities faced by communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans at local, regional, and national scales. A broad coalition of federal agencies launched the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov) in November 2014 to help our nation build resilience to climate-related extreme events. The site's primary audience is planners and decision makers in business, resource management, and government (at all levels) who seek science-based climate information and tools to help them in their near- and long-term planning. The Executive Office of the President assembled a task force of dozens of subject experts from across the 13 agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to guide the site's development. The site's ongoing evolution is driven by feedback from the target audience. For example, based on feedback, climate projections will soon play a more prominent role in the site's "Climate Explorer" tool and case studies. The site's five-step adaptation planning process is being improved to better facilitate people getting started and to provide clear benchmarks for evaluating progress along the way. In this session, we will share lessons learned from a series of user engagements around the nation and evidence that the Toolkit couples climate information with actionable decision-making processes in ways that are helping Americans build resilience to climate-related stressors.

How could Mosan agriculture be impacted by climate change and future droughts ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwens, A.; Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

Despite the great uncertainties regarding the future climatic context, lots of studies have focused on hydrological effects of climate change on the Meuse catchment. It appears that both winter high flows and summer low flows could be exacerbated. Climate change and its impacts on hydrology will thus affect various socio-economic sectors. High flows have been widely studied compared to low-flows. This poster will put the emphasis on a methodology developed in order to study impacts of droughts on agriculture. Agriculture is among the most impacted sectors due to climate change. The consequences could be both positive as negative in accordance with the range of predicted changes and the adaptation capacity of agricultural systems. Most of the existing studies related to climate change on agriculture focused on specific territory. Within the AMICE Interreg IVB project, a transnational approach has been developed to assess droughts impacts on agriculture through the Meuse basin. The project's previous works gave us a common scenario of climate trends and of the evolution of the hydrology in the Meuse basin. The methodology is based on the use of a physically-based model able to simulate the water-soil-plant continuum (derived from EPIC model). In order to be transferable from one country to another, the methodology proposed used data available at the basin scale. The UE soil data base was complemented with local information on agricultural practices and statistics. Three crops have been studied: maize, wheat and barley. The basic cultural calendar is supposed to be the same for the different countries. The methodology developed permits to study the evolution of yields, leaf area index, crops stress due to excess or lack of water through time under different scenarios build up in the frame of the project. It appears that corn is negatively affected by climate change, and thus despite the CO2 fertilization effect. Wheat and barley have similar behavior and are positively affected by climate change and CO2 fertilization. Leaf Area Index study reveals that the different crops start earlier and reach earlier maturity. These first results will be completed with other economic sectors'analysis like drinkable water production, electricity production and navigation. Therefore, the project will progress towards a better understanding of economic effects of future droughts and low-flows.

Land Management in the Anthropocene: Is History Still Relevant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-09-01

Incorporating Historical Ecology and Climate Change Into Land Management; Lansdowne, Virginia, 22-25 April 2008; Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent ``natural'' or ``properly functioning'' conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Cayan, D. R.; Meyer, M. K.

2001-12-01

Sensitivities of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are analyzed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-year period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th Century until about 1975, when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st Century with an attendant +2.5ºC warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. In contrast, a control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995, yields climate and streamflow-timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. Long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible above simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2020.

Influence of climate and eolian dust on the major-element chemistry and clay mineralogy of soils in the northern Bighorn basin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.

1990-01-01

Soil chronosequences in the northern Bighorn basin permit the study of chronologic changes in the major-element chemistry and clay mineralogy of soils formed in different climates. Two chronosequences along Rock Creek in south-central Montana formed on granitic alluvium in humid and semiarid climates over the past two million years. A chronosequence at the Kane fans in north-central Wyoming formed on calcareous alluvium in an arid climate over the past 600,000 years. Detailed analyses of elemental chemistry indicate that the soils in all three areas gradually incorporated eolian dust that contained less zirconium, considered to be chemically immobile during weathering, than did the alluvium. B and C horizons of soils in the wettest of the chronosequences developed mainly at logarithmic rates, suggesting that leaching, initially rapid but decelerating, dominated the dust additions. In contrast, soils in the most arid of the chronosequences developed at linear rates that reflect progressive dust additions that were little affected by leaching. Both weathering and erosion may cause changes with time to appear logarithmic in A horizons of soils under the moist and semiarid climatic regimes. Clay minerals form with time in the basal B and C horizons and reflect climatic differences in the three areas. Vermiculite, mixed-layer illite-smectite, and smectite form in the soils of the moist-climate chronosequence; smectite forms in the semiarid-climate chronosequence; and smectite and palygorskite form in the arid-climate chronosequence. ?? 1990.

Using the USDA Weekly Crop Progress Record to Document Trends in Corn Planting Date From 1979 to 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharik, C. J.

2005-12-01

Agriculture is a dominant driver of land surface phenology in the United States Corn Belt. The timing of planting and harvest, along with the rate of plant development, are influenced by crop type, technology, land management decisions, and weather and soil conditions. Collectively, these integrated factors affect the spatial and temporal spectral signature of crops captured by remote sensing. While many studies have used the historical satellite record of vegetation activity to detect changes across the land surface, there has been less emphasis on using ground-based or remote sensing data to depict the contemporary phenology of individual US agro-ecosystems. The objectives of this study were twofold: (1) demonstrate how weekly USDA-NASS 'Crop Progress' data and 'Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletins' could be useful to remote sensing science when characterizing changing land surface phenology over the US; and (2) quantify long-term trends in corn planting progress from 1979 to 2005 across 12 states in the US Corn Belt. Examination of the weekly NASS crop progress data shows that the initiation of corn planting has become significantly (P < 0.01) earlier by 6 to 24 days since 1979, potentially contributing to about 10% to 64% of the linear increase in corn yields during this period. The magnitude of earlier planting date trend varies regionally, and not all of this change can be attributed to an earlier arrival of spring or warmer springtime temperatures. Rather, the change appears to be related to increased farmer planting efficiency in spring attributed to the increased adoption of no-tillage or reduced-tillage practices and plowing soils in fall. Regardless of the exact cause of this trend, we have a legitimate reason to suspect that 'greening' of the Corn Belt since about 1980, according to remote sensing observations, is not entirely due to climate change, but rather arises from human land-use change in combination with climate factors. In the future, crop progress data may provide an ideal blueprint for selecting the ideal MODIS scene (i.e., 8-day period) that can separate various crop phenologies (e.g., corn vs. soybean) at high resolution, and offer a means to help validate or parameterize ecosystem model algorithms.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

PubMed

Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

2012-05-15

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen

PubMed Central

Pinder, Robert W.; Davidson, Eric A.; Goodale, Christine L.; Greaver, Tara L.; Herrick, Jeffrey D.; Liu, Lingli

2012-01-01

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N2O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at −290 to −510 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP100 basis, combustion contributes just −16 to −95 Tg CO2e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N2O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N2O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO2 emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change. PMID:22547815

Producing a Climate-Quality Database of Global Upper Ocean Profile Temperatures - The IQuOD (International Quality-controlled Ocean Database) Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintall, J.; Cowley, R.; Palmer, M. D.; Domingues, C. M.; Suzuki, T.; Ishii, M.; Boyer, T.; Goni, G. J.; Gouretski, V. V.; Macdonald, A. M.; Thresher, A.; Good, S. A.; Diggs, S. C.

2016-02-01

Historical ocean temperature profile observations provide a critical element for a host of ocean and climate research activities. These include providing initial conditions for seasonal-to-decadal prediction systems, evaluating past variations in sea level and Earth's energy imbalance, ocean state estimation for studying variability and change, and climate model evaluation and development. The International Quality controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) initiative represents a community effort to create the most globally complete temperature profile dataset, with (intelligent) metadata and assigned uncertainties. With an internationally coordinated effort organized by oceanographers, with data and ocean instrumentation expertise, and in close consultation with end users (e.g., climate modelers), the IQuOD initiative will assess and maximize the potential of an irreplaceable collection of ocean temperature observations (tens of millions of profiles collected at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, since 1772) to fulfil the demand for a climate-quality global database that can be used with greater confidence in a vast range of climate change related research and services of societal benefit. Progress towards version 1 of the IQuOD database, ongoing and future work will be presented. More information on IQuOD is available at www.iquod.org.

Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausden, Malcolm

2014-10-01

Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

Collaboration Across Worldviews: Managers and Scientists on Hawai'i Island Utilize Knowledge Coproduction to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation.

PubMed

Laursen, Scott; Puniwai, Noelani; Genz, Ayesha S; Nash, Sarah A B; Canale, Lisa K; Ziegler-Chong, Sharon

2018-05-30

Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawai'i Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawai'i Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers' primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change.

Palaeolimnological evidence of vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl (Austria) toward climate related changes since the last "vanished-lake" stage.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolotti, Monica; Milan, Manuela; Boscaini, Adriano; Soja, Gerhard; Herzig, Alois

2013-04-01

The palaeolimnological reconstruction of secular evolution of Euroepan Lakes with key socio-economical relevance respect to large (climate change) and local scale (land use, tourism) environmental changes, represents one of the objectives of the project EuLakes (European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors, Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change, Reg. N. 2CE243P3), launched in 2010 within the Central European Inititiative. The project consortium comprises lakes of different morphology and prevalent human uses, including the meso-eutrophic Lake Neusiedl, the largest Austrian lake (total area 315 km2), and the westernmost shallow (mean depth 1.2 m) steppe lake of the Euro-Asiatic continent. The volume of Lake Neusiedl can potentially change over the years, in relation with changing balance between atmospheric precipitation and lake water evapotranspiration. Changing water budget, together with high lake salinity and turbidity, have important implications over the lake ecosystem. This contribution illustrates results of the multi-proxi palaeolimnological reconstruction of ecologial changes occurred in Lake Neusiedl during the last ca. 140 years, i.e. since the end of the last "vanished-lake" stage (1865-1871). Geochemical and biological proxies anticipate the increase in lake productivity of ca. 10 years (1950s) respect to what reported in the literature. Diatom species composition indicate a biological lake recovery in the late 1980s, and suggest a second increment in lake productivity since the late 1990s, possibly in relation with the progressive increase in the nitrogen input from agriculture. Abundance of diatoms typical of brackish waters indicated no significant long-term change in lake salinity, while variations in species toleranting dessiccation confirm the vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl toward climate-driven changes in the lake water balance. This fragility is aggravated by the the semi-arid climate conditions of the catchemnt area. Biodiversity changes, pollution, agricultural and touristic over-exploitation represent further risk factors.

Improving the Nation's Climate Literacy through the Next Generation Science Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grogan, M.; Niepold, F.; Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Breslyn, W. G.; Carley, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science (2009) presented the information that is deemed important for individuals and communities to know and understand about Earth's climate, impacts of climate change, and approaches to adaptation or mitigation by a group of federal agencies, science and educational partners. These principles guided the development of the NRC Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas (2012) and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS, 2013). National Science Foundation recently funded two partnership projects which support the implementation of the climate component of the NGSS using the Climate Literacy framework. The first project, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), was launched in 2010 as a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project. CLEAN's primary effort is to steward a collection of educational resources around energy and climate topics and foster a community that supports learning about climate and energy topics. CLEAN's focus has been to integrate the effective use of the educational resources across all grade levels - with a particular focus on the middle-school through undergraduate levels (grades 6-16) and align the resources with educational standards. The second project, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) program is supported by a Phase II Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) grant awarded to the University System of Maryland (USM) by the National Science Foundation. The MADE-CLEAR project's related goals are to support innovations in interdisciplinary P-20 (preschool through graduate school) climate change education, and develop new pathways for teacher education and professional development leading to expertise in climate change content and pedagogy. Work in Maryland, Delaware (MADE-CLEAR) and other states on the implementation of the NGSS, that will utilize the years of work, the efforts of hundreds of community members and tens of millions of dollars of investment and to increase the nations climate literacy, will be highlighted. We will particularly focus on the partnerships among MADE-CLEAR, NOAA and CLEAN. Climate science and energy are complex topics, with rapidly developing science and technology and the potential for controversy. The NGSS offer educators an opportunity to effectively bring these important subjects into their classrooms across a learning progression spanning K-12 and well beyond. Yet regardless of the pedagogic setting, using a literacy-based approach can provide a sound foundation for building learners' understanding of these topics. In this presentation, we will describe contributions by a group of collaborative projects and organizations to support the NGSS implementation through an integrated Earth system science approach in K-12 education.

Changes in High Elevation Lake Ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada during the 20th Century: Combining Long-term Monitoring with Paleolimnology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sickman, J. O.; Heard, A. M.; Rose, N. L.; Bennett, D. M.; Lucero, D. M.; Melack, J. M.; Curtis, J. H.

2014-12-01

High mountain lakes of the Sierra Nevada are excellent indicators of anthropogenic global change due to their limited capacity to buffer acid deposition, their sensitivity to changes in snowpack dynamics and their oligotrophic nutrient status. In this presentation, we examine long-term records of hydrochemistry and biological monitoring at the Emerald Lake watershed to assess whether high elevation lakes of the Sierra Nevada are changing in response to climate change or changes in atmospheric deposition of nutrients and acid. To provide a broader context for these changes, we augment these long-term records with results from paleolimnological analysis that examines changes in nutrient status and acid buffering capacity of Sierra Nevada lakes over the past two millennia. Our research suggests that, although atmospheric deposition is the dominant driver of twentieth century ANC trends, aquatic communities in the Sierra Nevada are responding to combined effects from acidification, climate change, and eutrophication. Early in the twentieth century the primary stressor effecting Sierra Nevada lakes was acid deposition driven by SO2 emissions. As the century and industrialization progressed, NOx levels increased adding a eutrophication stressor while simultaneously contributing to acidification. Effects were further complicated by a warming climate in the late twentieth century, as warmer temperatures may have contributed to the recovery of ANC in lakes via increased weathering rates, while simultaneously enhancing eutrophication effects.

Evaluating climate controls on isotopic shifts in high-altitude forests during the Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Insel, N.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Sturm, C.; Karimova, G.

2016-12-01

Forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle, and influence climate through their effect on albedo and latent heat flux. Predicting the response of these ecosystems to climate change is complicated by competing influences between rising CO2, warming, and shifts in hydrology such as timing, rate, and type of precipitation. A key to detection and prediction of future regional and global changes of modern ecosystems lies in understanding the causes and characteristics of historical variations at the ecosystem level. The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130 to 116 ka) is the most recent period in Earth's history when growing season temperature exceeded those of today. In this study, we are using isotope-enabled regional climate model (REMOiso) simulations under LIG (115ka, 125 ka and 135 ka) and modern forcings to evaluate climate controls on boreal forest in the western US. In particular, we investigate (1) changes in moisture sources and moisture transport, (2) changes in the annual and seasonal extent and duration of precipitation, and (3) temperature variations to explore how ecosystem carbon and water fluxes change under coupled temperature and precipitation variability. Eemian wood samples from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado show a progressive increase in the 18O seasonal cycle that may be related to trees utilizing isotopically enriched monsoonal moisture. However, Eemian climate simulations (125ka) incorporate orbital forcings that result in stronger seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover in comparison to today, while annual anomalies are small. The seasonal shift in climate affects the water availability and the length of growing season for Eemian plants. Model results indicate only a very slight increase in monsoonal moisture transport from the south, resulting in slightly wetter conditions in western Colorado, but slightly drier conditions in the eastern part. Preliminary results suggest that changes in the North American monsoon system were not sufficient to explain the observed isotopic enrichment in Eemian wood samples. Current isotope simulations address changes in the seasonal isotopic cycle in the precipitation during the Eemian and will allow us to distinguish tree's reliance on summer or winter moisture sources more clearly.

An Coral Ensemble Approach to Reconstructing Central Pacific Climate Change During the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwood, A. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Grothe, P. R.; Sayani, H. R.; Southon, J. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Deocampo, D.; Chen, T.; Townsend, K. J.; Hagos, M. M.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2016-12-01

The processes that control El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on long timescales are still poorly understood. As a consequence, limited progress has been made in understanding how ENSO will change under greenhouse gas forcing. The mid-Holocene provides a well-defined target to study the fundamental controls of ENSO variability. A large number of paleo-ENSO records spanning the tropical Pacific indicate that ENSO variability was reduced by as much as 50% between 3000-6000 yr BP, relative to modern times. Dynamical models of ENSO suggest that ENSO properties can shift in response to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state and/or seasonal cycle, but few proxy records can resolve such changes during the interval in question with enough accuracy. While decades of research have demonstrated the fidelity of tropical Pacific coral d18O records to quantify interannual temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO, substantial mean offsets exist across overlapping coral sequences that have made it difficult to quantify past changes in mean climate. Here, we test a new approach to reconstruct changes in mean climate from coral records using a large ensemble of bulk d18O measurements on radiometrically-dated fossil corals from Christmas Island that span the Holocene. In contrast to the traditional method of high-resolution sampling to reconstruct monthly climate conditions, we implement a bulk approach, which dramatically reduces the analysis time needed to estimate mean coral d18O and enables a large number of corals to be analyzed in the production of an ensemble of mean climate estimates. A pseudo-coral experiment based on simulations with a Linear Inverse Model and a coupled GCM is used to determine the number of bulk coral estimates that are required to resolve a given mean climate perturbation. In addition to these bulk measurements, short transects are sampled at high resolution to constrain changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. We present preliminary results from our joint bulk/high-resolution sampling approach that provide new constraints on changes in mean climate and seasonality in the central equatorial Pacific over the last 6,000 yr BP.

A Computing Infrastructure for Supporting Climate Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C.; Bambacus, M.; Freeman, S. M.; Huang, Q.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Xu, C.; Wojcik, G. S.; Cahalan, R. F.; NASA Climate @ Home Project Team

2011-12-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing us on the Earth planet in the 21st century. Scientists build many models to simulate the past and predict the climate change for the next decades or century. Most of the models are at a low resolution with some targeting high resolution in linkage to practical climate change preparedness. To calibrate and validate the models, millions of model runs are needed to find the best simulation and configuration. This paper introduces the NASA effort on Climate@Home project to build a supercomputer based-on advanced computing technologies, such as cloud computing, grid computing, and others. Climate@Home computing infrastructure includes several aspects: 1) a cloud computing platform is utilized to manage the potential spike access to the centralized components, such as grid computing server for dispatching and collecting models runs results; 2) a grid computing engine is developed based on MapReduce to dispatch models, model configuration, and collect simulation results and contributing statistics; 3) a portal serves as the entry point for the project to provide the management, sharing, and data exploration for end users; 4) scientists can access customized tools to configure model runs and visualize model results; 5) the public can access twitter and facebook to get the latest about the project. This paper will introduce the latest progress of the project and demonstrate the operational system during the AGU fall meeting. It will also discuss how this technology can become a trailblazer for other climate studies and relevant sciences. It will share how the challenges in computation and software integration were solved.

Regional-scale carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of organic matter amendments on grassland soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Silver, W. L.

2017-12-01

While progress is being made toward emissions reductions, achieving the international warming target of no more than 2 °C by 2100 will require active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This research explores the potential for grassland ecosystems to sequester soil carbon (C) and mitigate climate change over time. We parameterized a site-level biogeochemical model (DayCent) to predict the effect of compost applications on grassland net primary productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil C storage and loss. We compare the results of the DayCent model from seven grassland regions across a broad climate gradient in CA. We also modeled the impact of climate change under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and reduced emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). Model results show that a single application of compost leads to a large net increase in soil C over several decades across all sites. Maximum soil C sequestration relative to control simulations occurred approximately 15 years after a ¼ inch compost was applied to the land, resulting in a maximum net C drawdown of approximately 6.6 Mg C/ha (Mendocino) by 2030 and a continued climate benefit from enhanced C storage through the end of the century. Compost application resulted in enhanced soil C in both climate scenarios, but the reduced emissions climate scenario resulted in greater net C storage than the high emissions scenario by 2100. This points to a virtuous cycle of simultaneous emissions reductions leading to enhanced climate change mitigation potential from land management strategies.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less

The Longterm Effects of Climate Change in European Shrubland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmett, B.; Sowerby, A.; Smith, A.; EU Increase-infrastructure Project Team

2011-12-01

Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems. As climate change progresses the potential feedback from the biosphere to the atmosphere through changes in above and below-ground structure and functioning will become increasingly important. A series of replicate long term climate change experiments have been running for ca. 10 years in contrasting shrubland types across Europe to quantify; (a) the potential changes in carbon sequestration, GHG emissions and nutrient cycling, (b) the links to above and below-ground biodiversity, and (c) implications for water quality, in response to warming and repeated summer drought. Results indicate a relatively high rate of below-ground carbon allocation compared to forest systems and the importance of modifying factors such as past and current management, atmospheric deposition and soil type in determining resilience to change. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods and despite major winter rainfall) was observed in the repeated summer drought treatment, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. The persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels in the hydric, organic-rich UK system. As above-ground biomass, litter production and diversity was remarkably stable, changes in soil fungal communities and soil physical structure appear to be critical in driving changes in soil carbon fluxes in this organic-rich site. Current ecosystem models may under-estimate potential changes in carbon loss in response to climate change if changes in soil biological and physical properties are not included.

Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climate noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Stephen R.; Hinnov, Linda A.

2010-08-01

Deterministic orbital controls on climate variability are commonly inferred to dominate across timescales of 104-106 years, although some studies have suggested that stochastic processes may be of equal or greater importance. Here we explicitly quantify changes in deterministic orbital processes (forcing and/or pacing) versus stochastic climate processes during the Plio-Pleistocene, via time-frequency analysis of two prominent foraminifera oxygen isotopic stacks. Our results indicate that development of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet is paralleled by an overall amplification of both deterministic and stochastic climate energy, but their relative dominance is variable. The progression from a more stochastic early Pliocene to a strongly deterministic late Pleistocene is primarily accommodated during two transitory phases of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth. This long-term trend is punctuated by “stochastic events,” which we interpret as evidence for abrupt reorganization of the climate system at the initiation and termination of the mid-Pleistocene transition and at the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. In addition to highlighting a complex interplay between deterministic and stochastic climate change during the Plio-Pleistocene, our results support an early onset for Northern Hemisphere glaciation (between 3.5 and 3.7 Ma) and reveal some new characteristics of the orbital signal response, such as the puzzling emergence of 100 ka and 400 ka cyclic climate variability during theoretical eccentricity nodes.

The PULSE Vision & Change Rubrics, Version 1.0: A Valid and Equitable Tool to Measure Transformation of Life Sciences Departments at All Institution Types

PubMed Central

Brancaccio-Taras, Loretta; Pape-Lindstrom, Pamela; Peteroy-Kelly, Marcy; Aguirre, Karen; Awong-Taylor, Judy; Balser, Teri; Cahill, Michael J.; Frey, Regina F.; Jack, Thomas; Kelrick, Michael; Marley, Kate; Miller, Kathryn G.; Osgood, Marcy; Romano, Sandra; Uzman, J. Akif; Zhao, Jiuqing

2016-01-01

The PULSE Vision & Change Rubrics, version 1.0, assess life sciences departments’ progress toward implementation of the principles of the Vision and Change report. This paper reports on the development of the rubrics, their validation, and their reliability in measuring departmental change aligned with the Vision and Change recommendations. The rubrics assess 66 different criteria across five areas: Curriculum Alignment, Assessment, Faculty Practice/Faculty Support, Infrastructure, and Climate for Change. The results from this work demonstrate the rubrics can be used to evaluate departmental transformation equitably across institution types and represent baseline data about the adoption of the Vision and Change recommendations by life sciences programs across the United States. While all institution types have made progress, liberal arts institutions are farther along in implementing these recommendations. Generally, institutions earned the highest scores on the Curriculum Alignment rubric and the lowest scores on the Assessment rubric. The results of this study clearly indicate that the Vision & Change Rubrics, version 1.0, are valid and equitable and can track long-term progress of the transformation of life sciences departments. In addition, four of the five rubrics have broad applicability and can be used to evaluate departmental transformation by other science, technology, engineering, and mathematics disciplines. PMID:27856548

EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joseph H. Hartman

1999-09-01

This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join thesemore » various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern hemisphere, and elsewhere. Finally these data can be integrated into a history of climate change and predictive climate models. This is not a small undertaking. The goals of researchers and the methods used vary considerably. The primary task of this project was literature research to (1) evaluate existing methodologies used in geologic climate change studies and evidence for short-term cycles produced by these methodologies and (2) evaluate late Holocene climate patterns and their interpretations.« less

Farmer's response to changing climate in North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De, Utpal Kumar

2015-02-01

Diversification of land use in the cultivation of various crops provides an alternative way to moderate the climate risk. By choosing alternative crops that are resilient to various weather parameters, farmers can reduce the crop damage and achieve optimum output from their limited land resources. Apart from other adaptation measures, crop diversity can reflect farmers' response towards changing climate uncertainty. This paper tries to examine the changing climatic condition through spatio-temporal variation of two important weather variables (precipitation and temperature) in the largest North-East Indian state, Assam, since 1950. It is examined by the variation in crop diversification index. We have used (1) Herfindahl Index for measuring degree of diversification and (2) locational quotient for measuring the changes in the regional crop concentration. The results show that, in almost all the districts, crop specialization has been taking place slowly and that happened mostly in the last phase of our study. The hilly and backward districts recorded more diversification but towards lower value crops. It goes against the normal feature of crop diversification where farmers diversify in favour of high value crops. Employing ordinary least squares method and/or Fixed Effect model, irrigation is found to have significant impact on crop diversification; while the flood plain zones and hill zones are found to have better progress in this regard, which has been due to the survival necessity of poor farmers living the zone. Thus crop diversity does not reflect very significant response from the farmers' side towards changing weather factors (except rainfall) though they have significant impact on the productivity of various crops, and thus profitability. The study thus suggests the necessity for rapid and suitable diversification as alternative climate change mitigation in the long run.

Governance and networks for health co-benefits of climate change mitigation: Lessons from two Indian cities.

PubMed

Puppim de Oliveira, Jose A; Doll, Christopher N H

2016-12-01

Health has been the main driver for many urban environmental interventions, particularly in cases of significant health problems linked to poor urban environmental conditions. This paper examines empirically the links between climate change mitigation and health in urban areas, when health is the main driver for improvements. The paper aims to understand how systems of urban governance can enable or prevent the creation of health outcomes via continuous improvements in the environmental conditions in a city. The research draws on cases from two Indian cities where initiatives were undertaken in different sectors: Surat (waste) and Delhi (transportation). Using the literature on network effectiveness as an analytical framework, the paper compares the cases to identify the possible ways to strengthen the governance and policy making process in the urban system so that each intervention can intentionally realize multiple impacts for both local health and climate change mitigation in the long term as well as factors that may pose a threat to long-term progress and revert back to the previous situation after initial achievements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of climate on landscape characteristics in safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes.

PubMed

Becker, J K; Lindborg, T; Thorne, M C

2014-12-01

In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introducing a New Concept Inventory on Climate Change to Support Undergraduate Instruction, Teacher Education, Education Research, and Project Evaluation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrow, C. A.; Monsaas, J.; Katzenberger, J.; Afolabi, C. Y.

2013-12-01

The Concept Inventory on Climate Change (CICC) is a new research-based, multiple-choice 'test' that provides a powerful new assessment tool for undergraduate instructors, teacher educators, education researchers, and project evaluators. This presentation will describe the features and the development process of the (CICC). This includes insights about how the development team (co-authors) integrated and augmented their multi-disciplinary expertise. The CICC has been developed in the context of a popular introductory undergraduate weather and climate course at a southeastern research university (N~400-500 per semester). The CICC is not a test for a grade, but is intended to be a useful measure of how well a given teaching and learning experience has succeeded in improving understanding about climate change and related climate concepts. The science content addressed by the CICC is rooted in the national consensus document, 'Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science'. The CICC has been designed to support undergraduate instruction, and may be valuable in comparable contexts that teach about climate change. CICC results can help to inform decisions about the effectiveness of teaching strategies by 1) flagging conceptual issues (PRE-instruction); and 2) detecting conceptual change (POST-instruction). Specific CICC items and their answer choices are informed by the research literature on common misunderstandings about climate and climate change. Each CICC item is rated on a 3-tier scale of the cognitive sophistication the item is calling for, and there is a balance among all three tiers across the full instrument. The CICC development process has involved data-driven changes to successive versions. Data sources have included item statistics from the administration of progressively evolved versions of the CICC in the weather and climate course, group interviews with students, and expert review by climate scientists, educators, and project evaluators based primarily in the US and Canada. The development team provided an exceptionally well integrated, multi-disciplinary expertise in climate science, climate education, education research, and psychometrics. The valuable integration of the team's expertise was driven by: 1) the prior interdisciplinary inclinations of key team members, which made it natural to openly inquire and learn across boundaries of expertise; and 2) the willingness of key team members to become respectful teachers of essential knowledge to other team members. These qualities, in combination with reviewer contributions, have brought the leading edges of natural and social science research together to produce the CICC. This work has been partially supported by a NASA award to the Georgia State University Research Foundation (NNX09AL69G).

Sustained Assessment, Version n.0: Efforts of the Sustained Assessment Working Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.; Barrie, D.; Reidmiller, D.; Lewis, K.

2017-12-01

In parallel with the development of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3, 2014), the U.S. Global Change Research Program, with inputs from the non-federal climate assessment community, sought to define a sustained assessment process. Although many elements of a sustained process were initiated during NCA3 and continued into the NCA4 era, progress is still needed. To address this need, a new Federal Interagency working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - the Sustained Assessment Working Group (SAWG) - was established in summer 2017. Its formation was motivated by a desire to avoid the sharp peaks in effort that accompanies production of the Congressionally-mandated quadrennial Assessment, followed by the dips in activity after a report is completed. With a goal of distributing and flattening effort, and providing a way to sustain engagement and better connect assessment-relevant activities, the SAWG is using inputs from the thirteen USGCRP agencies, federal advisory groups, and other sources to make recommendations to the agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The group will work with the agencies to implement these recommendations and monitor progress toward creating a sustained - and sustainable - assessment process. This presentation will detail the efforts and goals of SAWG and report on recent milestones.

Constraints of Predicting Land Cover Changes from Bioclimatic Models - with Special Regard to Forest Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, C.; Rasztovits, E.

2009-04-01

The determination of "climatic envelopes" of biota and especially of forests has attained a sudden actuality in the context of expected climatic changes, as zonal vegetation types serve as convenient climate indicators. Studies on bioclimatic modelling and on climate change-triggered vegetation shifts are abundant and have been considered also in the fourth report of IPCC. Present and predicted distribution of forest biota provide an illustrative impression of shift of potential land cover changes. There are, however, certain assumptions which remain often unmentioned, and which - if left unconsidered - may compromise the outcome. The bioclimatic models of actual biome or species distributions may be biased, because: (1) Present "natural" vegetation cover types are in most part of the world under strong human influence. In Europe, even the few remaining close to natural landscapes are the results of long lasting human interference of the past which continue also in the present. (2) It is a well known ecological rule that actual ranges of species and biota are regulated by complex, often hidden interactions which may modify distributions. Physiologically (more accurately: genetically) set potential limits may be per definitionem wider than the realized, actual ones. To include extrazonal outliers in bioclimatic models may cause errors. (3) The longevity and persistence of forest trees may be deceptive for climatic modelling at the retreating, xeric limits. The climatic zones move usually faster than the land (forest) cover indicating those zones. (4) Climate envelopes use standard (mean) climate parameters. It is however the effect of the sequence of consecutive extreme weather events and linked biotic damages which will concretely decide over survival or mortality. Therefore the use of climate means should be regarded only as surrogates for weather extremes. (5) The change of climatic environment may alter the phenologic behaviour which cannot be tested in advance. This affects also consuming and pathogenic organisms. Forecasts are unreliable, especially because up to date negligible or unknown pests and diseases may become virulent. Environmental shifts may also lead to changing interactions between hosts and consumers. The described and other factors may lead to overestimate progress at the front, and to possibly too pessimistic forecasts at the retreating (xeric) end of distributions.

Review of Land Use and Land Cover Change research progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yue; Hou, Kang; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei; Chen, Pei

2018-02-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) can reflect the pattern of human land use in a region, and plays an important role in space soil and water conservation. The study on the change of land use patterns in the world is of great significance to cope with global climate change and sustainable development. This paper reviews the main research progress of LUCC at home and abroad, and suggests that land use change has been shifted from land use planning and management to land use change impact and driving factors. The development of remote sensing technology provides the basis and data for LUCC with dynamic monitoring and quantitative analysis. However, there is no uniform standard for land use classification at present, which brings a lot of inconvenience to the collection and analysis of land cover data. Globeland30 is an important milestone contribution to the study of international LUCC system. More attention should be paid to the accuracy and results contrasting test of land use classification obtained by remote sensing technology.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

A synthesis of sedimentary records of Australian environmental change during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyler, J. J.; Karoly, D. J.; Gell, P.; Goodwin, I. D.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of Southern Hemispheric climate variability on multidecadal to multicentennial timescales is limited by a scarcity of quantitative, highly resolved climate records, a problem which is particularly manifest in Australia. To date there are no quantitative, annually resolved records from within continental Australia which extend further back in time than the most recent c. 300 years [Neukom and Gergis, 2012; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013]. By contrast, a number of marine, lake, peat and speleothem sedimentary records exist, some of which span multiple millennia at sub-decadal resolution. Here we report a database of existing sedimentary records of environmental change in Australia [Freeman et al., 2011], of which 25 have sample resolutions < 100 years/sample and which span > 500 years in duration. The majority of these records are located in southeastern Australia, providing an invaluable resource with which to examine regional scale climate and environmental change. Although most of the records can not be quantitatively related to climate variability, Empirical Orthogonal Functions coupled with Monte Carlo iterative age modelling, demonstrate coherent patterns of environmental and ecological change. This coherency, as well as comparisons with a limited number of quantitative records, suggests that regional hydroclimatic changes were responsible for the observed patterns. Here, we discuss the implications of these findings with respect to Southern Hemisphere climate during the last 2000 years. In addition, we review the progress and potential of ongoing research in the region. References: Freeman, R., I. D. Goodwin, and T. Donovan (2011), Paleoclimate data synthesis and data base for the reconstruction of climate variability and impacts in NSW over the past 2000 years., Climate Futures Technical Report, 1/2011, 50 pages. Neukom, R., and J. Gergis (2012), Southern Hemisphere high-resolution palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years, Holocene, 22(5), 501-524, doi:10.1177/0959683611427335. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013), Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic. PMID:24963391

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

The 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2): Process, Progress and Institutional Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, G.; Cavallaro, N.; Zhu, Z.; Larson, E. K.; Butler, J. H.

2017-12-01

Over 200 scientists and program managers from U.S., Mexican and Canadian government and non-government institutions have been collaborating on SOCCR-2 since 2015. Responding to the U.S. Global Change Research Act (1990) and the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (2011), this special Sustained National Climate Assessment report covers many of the GCRA mandated sectors such as agriculture, energy, forestry, aquatic systems, coasts, wetlands, atmospheric and human social systems, integrating the scientific uncertainties and analyzing the effects of global change on the carbon cycle and vice versa, including projections for both human- induced and natural changes. This presentation covers the SOCCR-2 process, progress and institutional context, providing a historical perspective on the interagency instruments and mechanisms that have facilitated the last decades of carbon cycle science reflected in SOCCR-2.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences, with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

2010-09-01

Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its development in 2010 and is likely to manage the system after 2011. The European Commission in its Communication in 2009 on disaster risk prevention also calls for improving and better sharing of data on disasters, disaster risk mapping and disaster risk management, in the context of the EU civil protection mechanism. Such information might also be linked to the planned EU Clearinghouse on climate change adaptation. The activities of EEA on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (including disaster risk reduction) include indicators of the impacts of climate change; a regularly updated overview of national assessments and adaptation plans on the EEA web site and specific focused reports, e.g. on adaptation to the challenges of changing water resources in the Alps (2009) and on analysis of past trends in natural disasters (due in 2010) and regular expert meetings and workshops with EEA member countries. The ECAC presentation will include the latest developments in the EU Clearinghouse on adaptation and progress in relevant EEA activities.

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua; McInerney, David; Best, Neil; Foster, Ian; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections. PMID:24872455

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges.

PubMed

Erickson, Larry E

2017-07-01

There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982-988, 2017.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982–988, 2017 PMID:29238442

Late Cretaceous (Late Campanian-Maastrichtian) sea surface temperature record of the Boreal Chalk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, N.; Harlou, R.; Schovsbo, N. H.; Stemmerik, L.; Surlyk, F.

2015-11-01

The last 8 Myr of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval were characterized by a progressive global cooling with superimposed cool/warm fluctuations. The mechanisms responsible for these climatic fluctuations remain a source of debate that can only be resolved through multi-disciplinary studies and better time constraints. For the first time, we present a record of very high-resolution (ca. 4.5 kyr) sea-surface temperature (SST) changes from the Boreal epicontinental Chalk Sea (Stevns-1 core, Denmark), tied to an astronomical time scale of the late Campanian-Maastrichtian (74 to 66 Myr). Well-preserved bulk stable isotope trends and calcareous nannofossil palaeoecological patterns from the fully cored Stevns-1 borehole show marked changes in SSTs. These variations correlate with deep-water records of climate change from the tropical South Atlantic and Pacific oceans but differ greatly from the climate variations of the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that the onset and end of the early Maastrichtian cooling and of the large negative Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary carbon isotope excursion are coincident in the Chalk Sea. The direct link between SSTs and δ13C variations in the Chalk Sea reassesses long-term glacio-eustasy as the potential driver of carbon isotope and climatic variations in the Maastrichtian.

Late Cretaceous (late Campanian-Maastrichtian) sea-surface temperature record of the Boreal Chalk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Nicolas; Harlou, Rikke; Schovsbo, Niels H.; Stemmerik, Lars; Surlyk, Finn

2016-02-01

The last 8 Myr of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval were characterized by a progressive global cooling with superimposed cool/warm fluctuations. The mechanisms responsible for these climatic fluctuations remain a source of debate that can only be resolved through multi-disciplinary studies and better time constraints. For the first time, we present a record of very high-resolution (ca. 4.5 kyr) sea-surface temperature (SST) changes from the Boreal epicontinental Chalk Sea (Stevns-1 core, Denmark), tied to an astronomical timescale of the late Campanian-Maastrichtian (74 to 66 Ma). Well-preserved bulk stable isotope trends and calcareous nannofossil palaeoecological patterns from the fully cored Stevns-1 borehole show marked changes in SSTs. These variations correlate with deep-water records of climate change from the tropical South Atlantic and Pacific oceans but differ greatly from the climate variations of the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that the onset and end of the early Maastrichtian cooling and of the large negative Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary carbon isotope excursion are coincident in the Chalk Sea. The direct link between SSTs and δ13C variations in the Chalk Sea reassesses long-term glacio-eustasy as the potential driver of carbon isotope and climatic variations in the Maastrichtian.

Community benthic paleoecology from high-resolution climate records: Mollusca and foraminifera in post-glacial environments of the California margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhre, Sarah E.; Kroeker, Kristy J.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter; Kennett, James P.

2017-01-01

Paleoecological reconstructions of past climate are often based on a single taxonomic group with a consistent presence. Less is known about the relationship between multi-taxon community-wide change and climate variability. Here we reconstruct paleoecological change in a Late Quaternary (16.1-3.4 ka) sediment core from the California margin (418 m below sea level) of Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), USA, using Mollusca (Animalia) and Foraminifera (Rhizaria) microfossils. Building upon previous investigations, we use multivariate ordination and cluster analyses to interpret community-scale changes in these distinctly different taxonomic groups across discrete climate episodes. The strongest differences between seafloor biological communities occurred between glacial (prior to Termination IA, 14.7 ka) and interglacial climate episodes. Holocene communities were well partitioned, indicating that sub-millennial oceanographic variability was recorded by these microfossils. We document strong evidence of chemosynthetic trophic webs and sulfidic environments (from gastropod Alia permodesta and bivalve Lucinoma aequizonata), which characterized restricted intervals previously interpreted as well oxygenated (such as the Pre-Bølling Warming). Mollusc records indicate first-order trophic energetic shifts between detrital and chemosynthetically-fixed carbon. Molluscs associated with widely different physiological preferences occur here within single, decadal intervals of sediment, and as such mollusc assemblages may reflect significant inter-decadal oceanographic variability. Foraminifera assemblages provide exceptional records of the sequential, chronological progression of the deglacial climatic and oceanographic events, whereas mollusc assemblages reflect non-chronological similarities in reoccurring communities. Foraminifera taxa that drive community similarity here are also independently recognized as marker species for seafloor hypoxia regimes, which provides support for the idea that oxygenation change is a principal driver of seafloor environmental variability.

Climate Change and Civil Violence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

2009-05-01

The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore provides an opportunity for targeted proactive measures to mitigate certain classes of future civil violence events.

Is climate change a threat for water uses in the Mediterranean region? Results from a survey at local scale.

PubMed

La Jeunesse, I; Cirelli, C; Aubin, D; Larrue, C; Sellami, H; Afifi, S; Bellin, A; Benabdallah, S; Bird, D N; Deidda, R; Dettori, M; Engin, G; Herrmann, F; Ludwig, R; Mabrouk, B; Majone, B; Paniconi, C; Soddu, A

2016-02-01

Water scarcity and water security are linked, not only through the direct effects of water shortages on each water users' access to water, but also because of water conflicts generated. Climate change is predicted to raise temperatures in the Mediterranean region and reduce rainfall, leading to a reduction in water yield and possibly worsening the situation of water resource shortages that Mediterranean regions are already experiencing. In its dissemination strategy, the EU FP7 CLIMB project addressed water security threats through an analysis of water uses and water use rivalries within a few target catchments distributed over the Mediterranean region. The present work explores whether climate change is locally perceived by stakeholders (water users and managers) as a key issue for their water uses and water security. Individual interviews, meetings, and compilation of questionnaires were conducted at five sites located in the Mediterranean region. The methodology permitted an analysis of water use and its evolution in the water management context, an identification of the state of awareness of local stakeholders and of the pressures on water use and water use rivalries, and a prioritization of water uses. Currently, the main response to increasing water demand in the Mediterranean region, while not yet considering climate change as a driving force, is a progressive externalization of water resources, with limits represented by national borders and technological possibilities. Overall, 'climate change' was not mentioned by stakeholders during both interviews and in answers to the questionnaires. Even the prospect of decreasing precipitation was not considered a relevant or threatening issue in the coming 20years. This confirms the need to continue all efforts to disseminate the state of knowledge on climate change impacts in the Mediterranean region, such as water scarcity, especially to local water managers, as initiated by various research programs of the European Commission. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process of the development of the climate scenarios; *) users are involved already in the early phases of the development of new scenarios, among others in the following way: **) workshops on users' requirements to check whether they have changed and to get more information; **) feedback group of users to get more detailed feedback on the modes of communication; **) newsletter with information on the progress and procedures to be followed and separate workshops for researchers and policy makers with different levels of detail; **) projects together with impact researchers: tailoring of data and in order to be able to present impact information consistent with the climate scenarios much earlier. During the presentation more detailed information will be given on the interaction with users.

[Research, impact and adaptation in public health for the new climate of Quebec].

PubMed

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane

2010-01-01

After its modest beginnings focusing on arctic Quebec in 1999, the Quebec research programme on health and climate change became interested in the remainder of the province around 2002. The European heat wave in 2003 accelerated the pace of this programme and prompted the Quebec health sector's participation in the Ouranos Research Consortium. The research findings from the 2003-2006 period have directly fed into the health component of the Quebec government's climate change action plan (2006-2012), financed through the first carbon tax in the Americas. This component is planning for a series of adaptations to the health network and to some other public networks, which will apply to construction, the built environment and outdoor developments, clinical management methods and practices, public health surveillance as well as emergency preparedness. In this article, the authors describe how research is supporting action and implementation, while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction has progressively established itself over the last 10 years.

Effects of water deprivation on behavioral Changes in BALB/c mice in hot humid climate of north east India.

PubMed

Chattopadhyay, Pronobesh; Pandey, Anurag; Karmakar, Sanjeev; Singh, Lokendra

2011-07-01

Abnormalities in water balance are manifested as hyponatremia and hypernatremia and the present investigation shows the effect of water deprivation in hot and humid climatic condition of north eastern part of India. Twenty four BALB/c mice of either sex (weight 30-40 g) were used for a 13-week experiment to determine the effects of water deprivation on behavioral and physiological changes. Mice were divided into control group (I) (n = 8), given water ad libitum, water-deprivation male group (15 ml/day) (Group II, n=8) and water-deprivation female group (15 ml/day) (Group III, n=8). The water deprivation mice shows significantly (P<0.05) deteriorated of reflex, progressive visual placement, emotional whereas body weight, grip strength and rectal temperature were significantly (P<0.05) increased as compared to the control group. This information is useful to those living or deployed in crisis situations where the water supply limited in a hot-humid climate.

The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, J.

2012-12-01

Federal science mission agencies are under increased pressure to ensure that their STEM education investments accomplish several objectives, including the identification and use of evidence-based approaches. Climate change education and climate literacy programs fall under these broader STEM initiatives. This paper is designed as a primer for climate change education evaluators and researchers to understand the policy context on the use of evidence. Recent initiatives, that include the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), point to a need for shared goals and measurements amongst the climate change education community. The Tri-agency Climate Change Education (CCE) collaboration, which includes NSF, NASA, and NOAA, developed the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Common Evaluation Framework Initiative Stakeholder Statement (2012). An excerpt: From the perspective of the tri-agency collaboration, and its individual agency members, the goal of the common framework is not to build a required evaluation scheme or a set of new requirements for our funded climate change education initiatives. Rather, the collaboration would be strengthened by the development of a framework that includes tools, instruments, and/or documentation to: ● Help the agencies see and articulate the relationships between the individual pieces of the tri-agency CCE portfolio; ● Guide the agencies in reporting on the progress, lessons learned, and impacts of the collaboration between the three agencies in developing a coordinated portfolio of climate education initiatives; and ● Help the individual projects, as part of this broader portfolio, understand where they fit into a larger picture. The accomplishments of this initiative to date have been based on the collaborative nature of evaluators the climate change education community within the tri-agency portfolio. While this effort has provided some shared understanding and general guidance, there is still a lack of guidance to make decisions at any level of the community. A recent memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget provides more specific guidance around the generation and utilization of evidence. For example, the amount of funding awarded through grants should be weighted by the level of the evidence supporting a proposed project. As the field of climate change education establishes an evidence base, study designs should address a greater number of internal validity threats through comparison groups and reliable common measures. In addition, OMB invites agencies to develop systematic measurement of costs and costs per outcome. A growing evidence base, one that includes data that includes costs and even monetizes benefits, can inform decisions based on the strongest returns on investments within a portfolio. This paper will provide examples from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation project that illustrate how NOAA is facing these challenges. This is intended to inform climate change educators, evaluators, and researchers in ways to integrate evaluation into the management of their programs while providing insight across the portfolio.

Land management in the Anthropocene: is history still relevant?: Incorporating historical ecology and climate change into land management; Lansdowne, Virginia, 22–25 April 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-01-01

Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent “natural” or “properly functioning” conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Panel established to revise position statement on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

President Robert Dickinson has appointed a panel to review the current AGU position statement on climate change and greenhouse gases, and to consider revising the statement to reflect scientific progress over the last four years. Marvin Geller of the State University of New York-Stonybrook chairs the panel.Other panel members include: Andre Berger, George Lemaître Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium; Anny Cazenave, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France; John Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville; Ellen Druffel, University of California, Irvine; Jack Fellows, University Consortium for Atmospheric Research, Boulder; Hiroshi Kanzawa, Nagoya University, Japan; William Schlesinger, Duke University, Durham; William (Jim) Shuttleworth, University of Arizona; Eric Sundquist, U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole; Richard Turco, University of California, Los Angeles; Ilana Wainer, Universidade Cidade Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Water quality status and trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Matthew C.; Hamilton, Pixie A.; Werkheiser, William H.; Ahuja, Satinder

2013-01-01

Information about water quality is vital to ensure long-term availability and sustainability of water that is safe for drinking and recreation and suitable for industry, irrigation, fish, and wildlife. Protecting and enhancing water quality is a national priority, requiring information on water-quality status and trends, progress toward clean water standards, continuing problems, and emerging challenges. In this brief review, we discuss U.S. Geological Survey assessments of nutrient pollution, pesticides, mixtures of organic wastewater compounds (known as emerging contaminants), sediment-bound contaminants (like lead and DDT), and mercury, among other contaminants. Additionally, aspects of land use and current and emerging challenges associated with climate change are presented. Climate change must be considered, as water managers continue their efforts to maintain sufficient water of good quality for humans and for the ecosystem.

A study of model parameters associated with the urban climate using HCMM data. [analysis of St. Louis, Missouri infrared imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Progress in the study of the intensity of the urban heat island is reported. The intensity of the heat island is commonly defined as the temperature difference between the center of the city and the surrounding suburban and rural regions. The intensity is considered as a function of changes in the season and changes in meteorological conditions in order to derive various parameters which may be used in numerical models for urban climate. Twelve case studies were selected and CCT's were ordered. In situ data was obtained from sixteen stations scattered about the city of St. Louis. Upper-air meteorological data were obtained and the water vapor and the temperature data were processed. Atmospheric transmissivities were computed for each of the case studies.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

An overview of mineral dust modeling over East Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Qian, Yun

Dust aerosol, one of the most abundant aerosol species in the atmosphere, has significant impacts on the energy balance and climatic feedback of the Earth system through its influence on solar and terrestrial radiation as well as clouds. East Asia is the one of prominent regions of dust generation. The East Asia dust life cycle and associated radiative and climatic effects are the outstanding science issues in understanding climate change at regional and even global scale. In the past decades, numerous dust models have been developed and applied to comprehend a series of dust-related processes studies, including emission, transport, andmore » deposition, and to understand the effects of dust aerosol on the radiation and climate over East Asian. In this paper, we review the recent achievements and progresses in East Asian dust modeling research and discuss the potential challenges in future studies.« less

The landscape of Titan as witness to its climate evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Jeffrey M.; Howard, Alan D.; Morgan, Alexander M.

2014-09-01

We investigated the range of Titan climate evolution hypotheses regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We analyzed all available image data (principally synthetic aperture radar (SAR)) of Titan's landscape through the T-86 encounter, starting with focused examinations of terrains that carry the markers of climate evolution. Traditional geologic and geomorphic landscape analysis was used to perform morphometric characterization, establish time-stratigraphic relationships, and interpret local and regional geologic process-oriented evolutionary histories. We then assayed the distribution of terrains we identified with respect to both their latitudinal and altimetric occurrence. Our analysis of the terrain types and distributions was used to evaluate and rank the various climate evolution scenarios. We favor progressive hypotheses, which include a relatively brief period in which precipitation was able to affect geomorphic change in low latitudes at scales perceivable in SAR data, with subsequent gradual decline of precipitation intensity coupled with an increasing poleward restriction.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Knowledge exchange for climate adaptation planning in western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, Gregg; Orr, Barron

2015-04-01

In western North America, the combination of sustained drought, rapid ecosystem changes, and land use changes associated with urban population growth has motivated concern among ecosystem managers about the implications of future climate changes for the landscapes which they manage. Through literature review, surveys, and workshop discussions, we assess the process of moving from concern, to planning, to action, with an emphasis on questions, such as: What are the roles of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge exchange? Which practices lead to effective interactions between scientists, decision-makers, and knowledge brokers? While there is no "one size fits all" science communication method, the co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decision-makers, as co-equals, is a resource intensive, but effective practice for moving adaptation planning forward. Constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong communication links between predictions, impacts and solutions. Resource managers need information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, region-specific projections of climate changes and impacts, frank discussion of uncertainties, and opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decision-makers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research, which bolsters credibility. We find that uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning. Candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, including those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors, with practitioners, science translators, and subject experts, stimulates constructive thinking on adaptation strategies. Discussion support to explore multiple future scenarios and research nuances advances the discussion beyond "uncertainty paralysis."

Cloud ice: A climate model challenge with signs and expectations of progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, Duane E.; Li, Jui-Lin F.; Woods, Christopher P.; Austin, Richard T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Chern, Jiundar; Del Genio, Anthony; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Kuang, Zhiming; Meng, Huan; Minnis, Patrick; Platnick, Steve; Rossow, William B.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Sun-Mack, Szedung; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Vane, Deborah G.; Walker, Christopher; Wu, Dong

2009-04-01

Present-day shortcomings in the representation of upper tropospheric ice clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) lead to errors in weather and climate forecasts as well as account for a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. An ongoing challenge in rectifying these shortcomings has been the availability of adequate, high-quality, global observations targeting ice clouds and related precipitating hydrometeors. In addition, the inadequacy of the modeled physics and the often disjointed nature between model representation and the characteristics of the retrieved/observed values have hampered GCM development and validation efforts from making effective use of the measurements that have been available. Thus, even though parameterizations in GCMs accounting for cloud ice processes have, in some cases, become more sophisticated in recent years, this development has largely occurred independently of the global-scale measurements. With the relatively recent addition of satellite-derived products from Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and CloudSat, there are now considerably more resources with new and unique capabilities to evaluate GCMs. In this article, we illustrate the shortcomings evident in model representations of cloud ice through a comparison of the simulations assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, briefly discuss the range of global observational resources that are available, and describe the essential components of the model parameterizations that characterize their "cloud" ice and related fields. Using this information as background, we (1) discuss some of the main considerations and cautions that must be taken into account in making model-data comparisons related to cloud ice, (2) illustrate present progress and uncertainties in applying satellite cloud ice (namely from MLS and CloudSat) to model diagnosis, (3) show some indications of model improvements, and finally (4) discuss a number of remaining questions and suggestions for pathways forward.

Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program.

PubMed

Lapaige, Véronique; Essiembre, Hélène

2010-01-01

It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1) the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc) and 2) the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives - a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity) and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute) based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid adaptation of the public health sector, the public mental health sector, and the public service sector to climate change, as well as a center for complex collaborations on evidence-based climatic health 'training'. This program-focused article comprises two main sections. The first section presents the 'general' and 'specific contexts' in which the chair emerged. The 'general context' pertains to the health-related challenge of finding ways to integrate, transfer, and implement knowledge, a particularly pointed challenge in Canada. The 'specific context' refers to the emerging research field of adaptation of public health to climate change. In the second section, the characteristics of the research chair are more extensively detailed (the vision of 'innoversity' and ' transfrontier knowledge-for-action,' the approach of shared responsibility and complex collaboration, objectives, and major axes of research). We conclude with a call for complex collaboration toward knowledge-for-action in public health services/mental health services/public services' adaptation to climate change: this call is aimed at individual and institutional actors in the North and South/West and East concerned by these issues.

Monitoring the Carbon Cycle: Improving Our Ability to Proved Policy Relevant Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruhwiler, L.

2017-12-01

Humans have altered the energy balance of the climate system mainly by producing and consuming fossil fuels, but also by emissions from food production. Manufacture and use of halocarbons, many of which are also strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) have added to anthropogenic radiative forcing. In response, the global atmosphere has warmed over the last half century at a rate of 0.17°C. The largest contribution to radiative forcing is due to CO2, and at present, about half of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been taken up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. The size of this "carbon emission discount" may change in the future as more carbon accumulates in the oceans, as human alter landscapes, and as climate changes. Efforts to limit global average temperature increases to 2°C and avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change depend on keeping track of both human emissions of greenhouse gases and changes in natural fluxes of carbon and nitrogen that occur in response to human activities and changing climate. Global in situ network observations provide information about changes in global GHG abundances over recent decades, as well as changing distributions between hemispheres. This information gives insight into changes in global and hemispheric sources and sinks of GHGs. It is, however, currently difficult to obtain robust information about regional sources and to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic fluxes. Information about regional sources is needed for GHG policymaking, while discrimination of natural sources is necessary for detection of trends in GHG fluxes and evaluation of coupled carbon cycle climate models. Although column average GHG abundances from space-based remote sensing data could provide considerable constraints on GHG budgets, there are still technical challenges to be overcome. Possible strategies for making progress involve greater increased observational coverage and more international collaboration, as well as improved modeling and assimilation techniques for estimating fluxes from observations.

Forest biorefinery : the next century of innovation

Treesearch

Junyong Zhu

2011-01-01

The concept of producing cel¬lulosic biofuel, bioproducts, and chemicals using ligno¬celluloses in a biorefinery has been around for over a century. Renewed interest in the biorefinery concept has more recently arisen from concerns about climate change and the depletion of fossil fuels. Much research and progress has been made in the last three decades in the area of...

Overview of contemporary issues of forest research and management in China

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson

2011-01-01

With 207 million ha of forest covering 22% of its land area, China ranks fifth in the world in forest area. Rapid economic growth, climate change, and forest disturbances pose new, complex challenges for forest research and management. Progress in meeting these challenges is relevant beyond China, because China's forests represent 34% of Asia's forests and 5...

Similarities in chemical composition of soil organic matter across a millennia-old paddy soil chronosequence as revealed by advanced solid-state NMR spectroscopy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation in paddy soils has aroused considerable attention due to its vital significance in global food, energy, climate, and environmental issues. Considerable progress has been made toward the understanding of changes in the quantity of SOM in paddy soils over a mille...

Knowledge that Counts in a Global Community: Exploring the Contribution of Integrated Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rennie, Leonie J.; Venville, Grady; Wallace, John

2011-01-01

As the third millennium progresses, we are faced with increasing pressures relating to climate change and the sustainability of life on Earth. Concerned citizens are realizing that the responsibility to respond is both local and global. There is an increasing sense of urgency about the need to reform the processes of schooling and curriculum to…

Financing Education in a Climate of Change. Third Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrup, Percy E.; Brimley, Vern, Jr.

Education is declared to be an investment in human capital. Reform in school finance systems is long overdue in many states, but much progress has been made, and will yet be made, due to far-reaching decisions in a number of relevant court cases in the 1970s. To provide practical guidelines and cost-effective decision-making techniques for…

The European Arctic policy in progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde Pérez, Elena; Yaneva, Zhaklin Valerieva

2016-09-01

The geostrategic, political, economic, and scientific relevance of the Arctic is constantly growing due to the complex process of climate change. Accordingly, the European Union-as a global political actor-, is already taking steps to ensure and strengthen its influence in the region while demonstrating readiness to face the many opportunities and challenges ahead in cooperation with the traditional stakeholders. Therefore, in order to reflect the renewed importance of the Arctic transformation, the Union has been designing its Arctic Policy focusing on climate change mitigation and multilateral cooperation as its main strengths. Unfortunately, despite the diligence and impetus that has been invested, this process has been delayed in several occasions as the Union had to deal with internal and external destabilizing factors, such as the later immigration crisis or the lack of uniformity among its member states' foreign policy interests. These factors will be analyzed along with the process of creation and development of the EU's Arctic policy. Despite some delays, on 27 April 2016, the long-awaited third communication was issued and progress has been made: even if, in general terms, the new document remains a political statement, there is also a clear commitment to action.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

2018-02-01

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Developing and Applying a Multi-scale Framework to Study the Relationship between Landscapes and Coastal Waters in the Texas Gulf Coast in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z. L.; McClelland, J. W.; Su, H.; Cai, X.; Lin, P.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Griffin, C. G.; Turner, E.; Maidment, D. R.; Montagna, P.

2014-12-01

This study seeks to improve our understanding of how upland landscapes and coastal waters, which are connected by watersheds, respond to changes in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles resulting from changes in climate, local weather patterns, and land use. This paper will report our progress in the following areas. (1) The Noah-MP land surface model is augmented to include the soil nitrogen leaching and plants fixation and uptake of nitrogen. (2) We have evaluated temperature, precipitation and runoff change (2039-2048 relative to 1989-1998) patterns in Texas under the A2 emission scenario using the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) product. (3) We have linked a GIS-based river routing model (RAPID) and a GIS-based nitrogen input dataset (TX-ANB). The modeling framework was conducted for total nitrogen (TN) load estimation in the San Antonio and Guadalupe basins. (4) Beginning in July 2011, the Colorado, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces rivers have been sampled on a monthly basis. Sampling continued until November 2013. We also have established an on-going citizen science sampling program. We have contacted the Lower Colorado River Authority and the Texas Stream Team at Texas State University to solicit participation in our program. (5) We have tested multiple scenarios of nutrient contribution to South Texas bays. We are modeling the behavior of these systems under stress due to climate change such as less overall freshwater inflow, increased inorganic nutrient loading, and more frequent large storms.

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.; Hsu, K.J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

2016-12-01

Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This work was partially supported by National Science Foundation grants EAR-1416964, EAR-1204685, and IIS-1526860. The model code is available at https://github.com/JohnNay/predMarket [1] A Leiserowitz, E Maibach, & C Roser-Renouf, Global Warming's Six Americas (Yale U., 2009). [2] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

2016-04-01

Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated that well-positioned and well-sized afforestation at the regional scale can significantly affect the spatial distribution, structure and intensity of the temperature field. This study points to vegetation having practical applications in urban and regional planning for modifying local climatic conditions. Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Afforestation, Land cover change, Urban planning, Climate change adaptation, Enviro-HIRLAM

Adapting land management to emergence of novel site conditions on the continental lowlands of SE Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel.; Gálos, Borbala; Gribovszki, Zoltan; Lakatos, Ferenc; Borovics, Attila; Csóka, György; Führer, Ernő; Illés, Gábor; Rasztovits, Ervin; Somogyi, Zoltán; Bartholy, Judit

2017-04-01

The rapid progress of site potential change, caused by the shift of climate zones is a serious problem of lowland management in Southeast Europe. In forestry, the resilience potential of main, climate-dependent tree species (e.g. spruce, beech, sessile oak) and ecosystems is limited at their lower (xeric) limits of distribution. A conventional mitigation measure for adaptive forest management is the return to nature-close management. Severe drought- and biotic impacts in forests indicate however the urgency of fundamental changes in forest policy. To provide assistance in selecting climate-tolerant provenances, species and adaptive technologies for future site conditions is therefore critical. A simplified Decision Support System has been developed for Hungary, keeping conventional elements of site potential assessment. Projections are specified for discrete site types. Processing forest inventory, landcover and geodata, the System provides GIS-supported site information and projections for individual forest compartments, options for tree species better tolerating future climate scenarios as well as their expected yield and risks. Data respectively projections are available for recent and current conditions, and for future reference periods until 2100. Also non-forest site conditions in the novel grassland (steppe) climate zone appear in projections. Experiences for proper management on these sites are however scarce.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

PubMed

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-06-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Review and synthesis: Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, Guido; Goetz, Scott; McGuire, A. David; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Schuur, Edward A.G.

2016-01-01

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Detecting anthropogenic climate forcing in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijffels, S. A.

2016-12-01

Owing to its immense heat capacity, the global ocean is the fly-wheel of the climate system, absorbing, redistributing and storing heat on long timescales and over great distances. Of the extra heat trapped in the Earth System due to rising greenhouse gases, over 90% is being stored in the global oceans. Tracking this warming has been challenging due to past changes in the coverage and technology used in past ocean observations. Here, I'll review progress in estimating past warming rates and patterns. The warming of Earth's surface is also driving changes in the global hydrological cycle, which also intimately involves the oceans. Global ocean salinity changes reveal another footprint of a warming Earth. Some simple model runs that give insight into observed subsurface changes will also be described, along with an update on current warming rates and patterns as tracked by the global Argo programme. The prospects for the next advances in broadscale ocean monitoring will also be discussed.

Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Llobregat river basin in Catalonia (Spain) using three downscaling methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballinas, R.; Versini, P.-A.; Sempere, D.; Escaler, I.

2009-09-01

Any long-term change in the patterns of average weather in a global or regional scale is called climate change. It may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological parameters may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc. Recent studies in Catalonia foresee changes in hydrological systems caused by climate change. This will lead to alterations in the hydrological cycle that could impact in land use, in the regimen of water extractions, in the hydrological characteristics of the territory and reduced groundwater recharge. Besides, can expect a loss of flow in rivers. In addition to possible increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall, being necessary to modify the design of infrastructure. Because this, it work focuses on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia, the Llobregat River Basin. The basin is the hub of the province of Barcelona. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, as drinking water production, agricultural irrigation, industry and hydro-electrical energy production. In consequence, many companies and communities depend on these resources. To study the impact of climate change in the Llobregat basin, storms (frequency, intensity) mainly, we will need regional climate change information. A regional climate is determined by interactions at large, regional and local scales. The general circulation models (GCMs) are run at too coarse resolution to permit accurate description of these regional and local interactions. So far, they have been unable to provide consistent estimates of climate change on a local scale. Several regionalization techniques have been developed to bridge the gap between the large-scale information provided by GCMs and fine spatial scales required for regional and environmental impact studies. Downscaling methods to assess the effect of large-scale circulations on local parameters have. Statistical downscaling methods are based on the view that regional climate can be conditioned by two factors: large-scale climatic state and regional/local features. Local climate information is derived by first developing a statistical model which relates large-scale variables or "predictors" for which GCMs are trustable to regional or local surface "predictands" for which models are less skilful. The main advantage of these methods is that they are computationally inexpensive, and can be applied to outputs from different GCM experiments. Three statistical downscaling methods are applied: Analogue method, Delta Change and Direct Forcing. These methods have been used to determine daily precipitation projections at rain gauge location to study the intensity, frequency and variability of storms in a context of climate change in the Llobregat River Basin in Catalonia, Spain. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program). It deals with Medium and long term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Two stakeholders involved in the project provided the historical time series: Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

Climate and vegetation change during the Holocene in southern Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez Moreno, Gonzalo; Anderson, R. Scott; Ramos-Roman, María J.; Camuera, Jon; Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Jimenez-Espejo, FranciscoJ.; Toney, Jaime L.; Mesa-Fernandez, Jose Manuel; Manzano, Saul; Carrion, Jose S.

2017-04-01

Detailed pollen analysis has been carried out on several sediment cores taken from high-elevation alpine lakes and bog areas located in Sierra Nevada and coastal and offshore environments from southern Spain. The early Holocene is characterized in these records by the highest abundance of arboreal pollen, indicating the warmest and wettest conditions in the area at that time. The pollen records show a progressive aridification trend since the beginning of the middle Holocene through a decrease in forest species and the increase in xerophytes. The progressive aridification is punctuated by millennial-scale periodically enhanced droughts that coincide in timing and duration with well-known arid events in the Mediterranean and other areas. A relatively humid period occurred during the Iberian-Roman Humid Period. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1300 AD) was characterized by a wet phase at first, coinciding with a solar minimum, and a later arid phase, coinciding with the Medieval solar Maximum and a positive NAO. The Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD) was markedly wetter than earlier, as shown by the increase in tree pollen, coinciding with a phase of negative NAO and the Maunder solar minimum. This study shows that vegetation and climate in the Western Mediterranean are modulated by solar and atmospheric factors. Out-of-trend vegetation changes are observed in the last centuries, which probably indicate the high-impact of humans in the Sierra Nevada, with pasturing leading to nutrient enrichment and eutrophication of the wetlands, Olea cultivation at lower elevations and Pinus reforestation.

Learning from Non-Linear Ecosystem Dynamics Is Vital for Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sietz, Diana; Fleskens, Luuk; Stringer, Lindsay C.

Land Degradation Neutrality is one of the Sustainable Development Goal targets, requiring on-going degradation to be balanced by restoration and sustainable land management. However, restoration and efforts to prevent degradation have often failed to deliver expected benefits,despite enormous investments. Better acknowledging the close relationships between climate, land management and non-linear ecosystem dynamics can help restoration activities to meet their intended goals, while supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper is the first to link ecological theory of non-linear ecosystem dynamics to Land Degradation Neutrality offering essential insights into appropriate timings, climate-induced windows of opportunities and risks and the financialmore » viability of investments. These novel insights are pre-requisites for meaningful o and monitoring of progress towards Land Degradation Neutrality« less

Learning from Non-Linear Ecosystem Dynamics Is Vital for Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality

DOE PAGES

Sietz, Diana; Fleskens, Luuk; Stringer, Lindsay C.

2017-02-27

Land Degradation Neutrality is one of the Sustainable Development Goal targets, requiring on-going degradation to be balanced by restoration and sustainable land management. However, restoration and efforts to prevent degradation have often failed to deliver expected benefits,despite enormous investments. Better acknowledging the close relationships between climate, land management and non-linear ecosystem dynamics can help restoration activities to meet their intended goals, while supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper is the first to link ecological theory of non-linear ecosystem dynamics to Land Degradation Neutrality offering essential insights into appropriate timings, climate-induced windows of opportunities and risks and the financialmore » viability of investments. These novel insights are pre-requisites for meaningful o and monitoring of progress towards Land Degradation Neutrality« less

Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS): Examples of Adaptation Strategies With Next Challenges from Brazilian Risk Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza, F. A. A. D.; Mendiondo, E. M.; Taffarello, D.; Guzmán-Arias, D.; Fava, M. C.; Abreu, F.; Freitas, C. C.; de Macedo, M. B.; Estrada, C. R.; do Lago, C. A.

2017-12-01

In Brazil, more than 40,000 hot-spot areas, with vulnerable human settlements with ca. 120 million inhabitants and responsible of 60% of Brazilian Gross Net Product, are threatened by hydrological-driven disaster risks. In these areas, local resilient actions and adaptation strategies do integrate the current Brazilian Act and Regulation of Laws of urban waters, climate change and civil protection. However, these initiatives are still under slow progress, especially to cope with floods, landslides, droughts, progressive biodiversity losses and energy burnouts. Here we address these hot-spots through the concept of Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS), with a mix of adaptation strategies, open-source, big data analysis and societal feedbacks. On the one hand, SHOWS merges strategies like the dynamic framework of water security (Srinivasan et al, 2017), drought risk mapping (Rossato et al, 2017) and water securitization under varying water demand and climate change until year 2100 (Mohor & Mendiondo, 2017; Guzmán-Arias et al, 2017). SHOWS acknowledges different perspectives of water insecurity, several spatiotemporal scales and regime shifts in socio-hydrologic systems. On the one hand, SHOWS links field monitoring during water insecurity hazards (Taffarello et al, 2016), ecosystem-based adaptation networks, and decision-making and big data sources to disaster management (Horita et al, 2017). By using selected examples from two Brazilian running interdisciplinary research aliances, i.e. CAPES-ProAlertas CEMADEN-CEPED/USP and the CNPq/FAPESP National Institute of Science & Technology on Climate Change-II Water Security, we also face the limits, the pros and cons of SHOWS' assumptions. Through real-cases paradoxes, (i.e. 2013/2014 drought), water dashboards and coevolution trends (i.e. impacts on river basin committees from scenarios until 2050, 2100 in NE & SE Brazil), SHOWS helps on guiding decisionmaking for next societal steps of water governance under non-stationary drivers of socio-economy, natural resources and wealth/technology at other South American studies. Funding: CAPES 88887.091743/2014-01 ProAlertas CEPED/USP, CNPq 465501/2014-1, FAPESP 2014/50848-9 INCT-II Climate Change-Water Security, CNPq PQ 312056/2016-8 & CAPES-PROEX-PPGSHS

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Ewen, Tracy; Johnson, Leigh; Ćöltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

2015-08-01

In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are generally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimulated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.

The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.; Hintsa, Eric J.; Anderson, James G.; Keith, David W.

1999-01-01

Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland.

PubMed

Weedon, James T; Kowalchuk, George A; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F M; van Bodegom, Peter M

2017-01-01

The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50-100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12-15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7-11%) > climate treatment (4-9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates-evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts.

Terrestrial mollusk records from Chinese loess sequences and changes in the East Asian monsoonal environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Naiqin; Li, Fengjiang; Rousseau, Denis-Didier

2018-04-01

The terrestrial mollusk fossils found in Chinese loess strata have been studied for over one hundred years. However, the greatest progress in these studies has been made only in the last two decades. In this paper, we review the advancements, advantages and limitations of terrestrial mollusk studies in Chinese loess deposits. Improvements in research methods and approaches have allowed the extraction of more detailed paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information from mollusk assemblages. The broadened research scope and content have yielded many new findings and results. The mollusk record has thus become one of the most important proxies in the paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstruction of loess-paleosol sequences in China. The greatest progress in the studies of terrestrial mollusks in Chinese loess sequences can be summarized as follows: (1) modern mollusk assemblages can be classified into four ecotypes, based on their temperature and humidity requirements, including eurytopic, semi-aridiphilous and sub-humidiphilous, cold-aridiphilous, and thermo-humidiphilous types; (2) Quaternary mollusk assemblages can be modified into the following three ecological types: glacial loess, interglacial paleosol, and interstadial weakly-developed paleosol assemblages; (3) mollusk records successfully reveal long-term climatic and environmental changes reflective of the history of East Asian monsoonal variations since the Late Cenozoic, and the succession of mollusk species also indicate short-term environmental changes such as millennial climate variability during Last Glacial Maximum and unstable climatic fluctuations during glacial and interglacial periods; and (4) more recently, new analytical approaches have offered increased research potential in areas such as paleotemperature reconstruction using the isotopic compositions of modern and fossil mollusk shells, combined with higher accuracy 14C dating of Quaternary loess deposits, which will greatly improve future loess paleoenvironmental research.

Correspondence of terrestrial and marine paleoclimates, SW Florida, during Mid-Pliocene periods of global warmth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willard, D.A.; Cronin, T.M.; Litwin, R.J.

Pollen and ostracode samples from shallow-marine strata of the Pinecrest Beds near Sarasota, FL were studied to compare terrestrial and marine paleoclimate records during periods of middle Pliocene global warmth. Pollen assemblages from strata deposited during sea-level highstands from about 3.5--3.0 Ma are dominated by Pinus pollen with subdominant Ouercus and common taxodiaceous pollen, which increases markedly in abundance near about 3.0 Ma. Comparison with modern, shallow-marine pollen assemblages from the east coast of the United States indicates that the 3.5--3.0 Ma vegetation was, overall, similar to vegetation from the southern third Florida. However, near 3.0 Ma, pollen assemblages becomemore » less similar to modern assemblages due to higher percentages of taxodiaceous pollen and lower percentages of herbaceous pollen. Such changes are consistent with warmer climates and, possibly, moister soil conditions. Marine ostracodes also show progressively higher percentages of thermophilic (subtropical/tropical) taxa and decreasing percentages of cryophilic (temperature) taxa between 3.5--3.0 Ma. From about 2.5--2.0 Ma, ostracode assemblages recorded open-bay, sometimes brackish environments similar to those in subtropical eastern North America today. The Pinecrest paleoclimate record shows (1) that during two periods of global warmth and high sea level, subtropical terrestrial and marine climates were not substantially warmer than today; (2) ocean and atmosphere temperatures probably were about the same as today, perhaps slightly higher during peak warmth near 3.0 Ma; (3) changes in pollen assemblages appear to lag behind changes in ostracode assemblages; (4) progressively warmer local climates 3.5--3.0 Ma probably record an increasing influence of warm Gulf Stream water as the Central American Isthmus closed.« less

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

2017-12-01

Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at NASA-GISS and an associate professor at Medgar Evers College of CUNY, an urban minority serving institution in central Brooklyn. Supported by NSF Award AGS-1359293 And NASA Award NNX17AC81G.

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that assessment [IPCC, 2005]. This paper extends a review of the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC assessments by Swart et al [2009]. It is shown that progress towards consistency has been made but that there also appears to be a need for continued use of several complementary approaches in order to cover the wide range of circumstances across different disciplines involved in climate change. While this reflects the situation in the science community, it also raises the level of complexity for policymakers and other users of the assessments who would prefer one common consensus approach. References IPCC (2005), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, IPCC, Geneva. Manning, M., et al. (2004), IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options. IPCC Moss, R., and S. Schneider (2000), Uncertainties, in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by R. Pachauri, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva. Swart, R., et al. (2009), Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change, 92(1-2), 1 - 29.

From Risk to Opportunity. How Insurers Can Proactively and Profitably Manage Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, E.; Lecomte, E.

2006-08-15

Last year's USD 45 billion of insured losses from Hurricane Katrina was only the latest reminder of why investors and consumers are concerned about the impacts of climate change on the insurance industry. Twelve months after the devastating storm hit New Orleans, insurers and their shareholders are still feeling the ripples. Record insured losses, rating downgrades, coverage pullbacks and class-action lawsuits are just a few of the reverberations that have been felt across the industry. Meanwhile, consumers are feeling the combined sting of price shocks and reduced availability. So serious is the issue that 20 leading investors, representing over $800more » billion in assets, called on the nation's largest insurance companies to disclose their financial exposure from climate change and steps they are taking to reduce those financial impacts. But, while most of the attention is focused on the growing risks, climate change also creates vast business opportunities to be part of the solution to global warming. Just as the industry has historically asserted its leadership to minimize risks from building fires and earthquakes, insurers have a huge opportunity today to develop creative loss-prevention products and services that will reduce climate-related losses for consumers, governments and insurers, while trimming the emissions causing global warming. This report focuses on the encouraging progress made by insurers to develop these new products and services. It identifies more than 190 concrete examples available, or soon-to-be-available, from dozens of insurance providers in 16 countries. In addition to benefiting insurers' core business and investment activities, these programs afford insurers the opportunity to differentiate their products from their competitors, while also enhancing their reputation with customers who are increasingly looking for all sectors of the industry to come forward with effective responses to the threats caused by climate change. More than half of the products come from U.S. companies, covering such services as green building design, hurricane-resistant construction, carbon emissions trading and renewable energy.« less

Land use changes and its climatic implications in Northern Italy during the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oeggl, Klaus; Oeggl-Wahlmüller, Notburga; Festi, Daniela; Zagermann, Marcus

2016-04-01

Here we present an interdisciplinary study on land use changes in Northern Italy at the transition from the Roman Empire to the Early Middle Ages. The combination of archaeological data and high-resolution pollen analyses carried out in the Fiavè basin (Trentino) provide a detailed insight in socio-economic changes and its implications with climate in the Dark Ages. The vegetation in this area is dominated up to 1000 m by submediterranian trees like Fraxinus ornus and Ostrya carpinifolia, superseded by a mixed Fagus and Abies forest with variable amounts of Picea abies. Since 2008 archaeological surveys in the Fiavè basin as well as excavations conducted on a fortified hill-top settlement (castrum) in 985m register the settlement development of this settlement cluster and reveal an almost continuous occupation from Roman to Early Medieval Times. In addition a high-resolution pollen record from a 1.30 m thick peat sequence of the bog "Palude di Fiave" discloses four main phases: (1) in the Late Iron Age high amounts of arboreal pollen and the spread of Abies demonstrate a decrease in settlement activity suggested by wetter climate conditions. (2) During the Roman Empire a phase with arable farming in the basin starts. Olea, Juglans and Castanea sativa are introduced and document the onset of horticulture in this region. (3) After 300 AD - during the Migration Period - the wet and cool conditions have had poor impact on settlement activity. Agricultural (Cerealia) and nitrophilous indicators (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae, Urticaceae) are continuously proved. However a change within the cultivated crops in relation to the climate conditions is observed. Subsequently a progressive recovery of Pinus followed by Abies and Fagus marks the climatic improvement at the beginning of the Early Medieval Times. (4) The time from 600 to 800 AD is characterized by increasing frequency and diversity of anthropogenic-related indicators. The implications of these land use changes with climate conditions are discussed.

Vegetation controls on weathering intensity during the last deglacial transition in southeast Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ivory, Sarah J.; McGlue, Michael M.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Cohen, Andrew S.; Vincens, Annie

2015-01-01

Tropical climate is rapidly changing, but the effects of these changes on the geosphere are unknown, despite a likelihood of climatically-induced changes on weathering and erosion. The lack of long, continuous paleo-records prevents an examination of terrestrial responses to climate change with sufficient detail to answer questions about how systems behaved in the past and may alter in the future. We use high-resolution records of pollen, clay mineralogy, and particle size from a drill core from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, to examine atmosphere-biosphere-geosphere interactions during the last deglaciation (~18–9 ka), a period of dramatic temperature and hydrologic changes. The results demonstrate that climatic controls on Lake Malawi vegetation are critically important to weathering processes and erosion patterns during the deglaciation. At 18 ka, afromontane forests dominated but were progressively replaced by tropical seasonal forest, as summer rainfall increased. Despite indication of decreased rainfall, drought-intolerant forest persisted through the Younger Dryas (YD) resulting from a shorter dry season. Following the YD, an intensified summer monsoon and increased rainfall seasonality were coeval with forest decline and expansion of drought-tolerant miombo woodland. Clay minerals closely track the vegetation record, with high ratios of kaolinite to smectite (K/S) indicating heavy leaching when forest predominates, despite variable rainfall. In the early Holocene, when rainfall and temperature increased (effective moisture remained low), open woodlands expansion resulted in decreased K/S, suggesting a reduction in chemical weathering intensity. Terrigenous sediment mass accumulation rates also increased, suggesting critical linkages among open vegetation and erosion during intervals of enhanced summer rainfall. This study shows a strong, direct influence of vegetation composition on weathering intensity in the tropics. As climate change will likely impact this interplay between the biosphere and geosphere, tropical landscape change could lead to deleterious effects on soil and water quality in regions with little infrastructure for mitigation.

Vegetation Controls on Weathering Intensity during the Last Deglacial Transition in Southeast Africa

PubMed Central

Ivory, Sarah J.; McGlue, Michael M.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Cohen, Andrew S.; Vincens, Annie

2014-01-01

Tropical climate is rapidly changing, but the effects of these changes on the geosphere are unknown, despite a likelihood of climatically-induced changes on weathering and erosion. The lack of long, continuous paleo-records prevents an examination of terrestrial responses to climate change with sufficient detail to answer questions about how systems behaved in the past and may alter in the future. We use high-resolution records of pollen, clay mineralogy, and particle size from a drill core from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, to examine atmosphere-biosphere-geosphere interactions during the last deglaciation (∼18–9 ka), a period of dramatic temperature and hydrologic changes. The results demonstrate that climatic controls on Lake Malawi vegetation are critically important to weathering processes and erosion patterns during the deglaciation. At 18 ka, afromontane forests dominated but were progressively replaced by tropical seasonal forest, as summer rainfall increased. Despite indication of decreased rainfall, drought-intolerant forest persisted through the Younger Dryas (YD) resulting from a shorter dry season. Following the YD, an intensified summer monsoon and increased rainfall seasonality were coeval with forest decline and expansion of drought-tolerant miombo woodland. Clay minerals closely track the vegetation record, with high ratios of kaolinite to smectite (K/S) indicating heavy leaching when forest predominates, despite variable rainfall. In the early Holocene, when rainfall and temperature increased (effective moisture remained low), open woodlands expansion resulted in decreased K/S, suggesting a reduction in chemical weathering intensity. Terrigenous sediment mass accumulation rates also increased, suggesting critical linkages among open vegetation and erosion during intervals of enhanced summer rainfall. This study shows a strong, direct influence of vegetation composition on weathering intensity in the tropics. As climate change will likely impact this interplay between the biosphere and geosphere, tropical landscape change could lead to deleterious effects on soil and water quality in regions with little infrastructure for mitigation. PMID:25406090

Vegetation controls on weathering intensity during the last deglacial transition in southeast Africa.

PubMed

Ivory, Sarah J; McGlue, Michael M; Ellis, Geoffrey S; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Cohen, Andrew S; Vincens, Annie

2014-01-01

Tropical climate is rapidly changing, but the effects of these changes on the geosphere are unknown, despite a likelihood of climatically-induced changes on weathering and erosion. The lack of long, continuous paleo-records prevents an examination of terrestrial responses to climate change with sufficient detail to answer questions about how systems behaved in the past and may alter in the future. We use high-resolution records of pollen, clay mineralogy, and particle size from a drill core from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, to examine atmosphere-biosphere-geosphere interactions during the last deglaciation (∼ 18-9 ka), a period of dramatic temperature and hydrologic changes. The results demonstrate that climatic controls on Lake Malawi vegetation are critically important to weathering processes and erosion patterns during the deglaciation. At 18 ka, afromontane forests dominated but were progressively replaced by tropical seasonal forest, as summer rainfall increased. Despite indication of decreased rainfall, drought-intolerant forest persisted through the Younger Dryas (YD) resulting from a shorter dry season. Following the YD, an intensified summer monsoon and increased rainfall seasonality were coeval with forest decline and expansion of drought-tolerant miombo woodland. Clay minerals closely track the vegetation record, with high ratios of kaolinite to smectite (K/S) indicating heavy leaching when forest predominates, despite variable rainfall. In the early Holocene, when rainfall and temperature increased (effective moisture remained low), open woodlands expansion resulted in decreased K/S, suggesting a reduction in chemical weathering intensity. Terrigenous sediment mass accumulation rates also increased, suggesting critical linkages among open vegetation and erosion during intervals of enhanced summer rainfall. This study shows a strong, direct influence of vegetation composition on weathering intensity in the tropics. As climate change will likely impact this interplay between the biosphere and geosphere, tropical landscape change could lead to deleterious effects on soil and water quality in regions with little infrastructure for mitigation.

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

2017-01-01

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

2016-01-01

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts. PMID:28435176

Climate change and rising heat: population health implications for working people in Australia.

PubMed

Hanna, Elizabeth G; Kjellstrom, Tord; Bennett, Charmian; Dear, Keith

2011-03-01

The rapid rise in extreme heat events in Australia recently is already taking a health toll. Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in the future, and population health may be significantly compromised for people who cannot reduce their heat exposure. Exposure to extreme heat presents a health hazard to all who are physically active, particularly outdoor workers and indoor workers with minimal access to cooling systems while working. At air temperatures close to (or beyond) the core body temperature of 37°C, body cooling via sweating is essential, and this mechanism is hampered by high air humidity. Heat exposure among elite athletes and the military has been investigated, whereas the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored, particularly in relation to future climate change. Workers span all age groups and diverse levels of fitness and health status, including people with higher than "normal" sensitivity to heat. In a hotter world, workers are likely to experience more heat stress and find it increasingly difficult to maintain productivity. Modeling of future climate change in Australia shows a substantial increase in the number of very hot days (>35°C) across the country. In this article, the authors characterize the health risks associated with heat exposure on working people and discuss future exposure risks as temperatures rise. Progress toward developing occupational health and safety guidelines for heat in Australia are summarized.

Air Pollution Prevention and Control Policy in China.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Wang, Qiong; Wang, Suhan; Ren, Meng; Ma, Rui; He, Yiling

2017-01-01

With rapid urbanization and development of transport infrastructure, air pollution caused by multiple-pollutant emissions and vehicle exhaust has been aggravated year by year in China. In order to improve air quality, the Chinese authorities have taken a series of actions to control air pollution emission load within a permissible range. However, although China has made positive progress on tackling air pollution, these actions have not kept up with its economy growth and fossil-fuel use. The traditional single-pollutant approach is far from enough in China now, and in the near future, air pollution control strategies should move in the direction of the multiple-pollutant approach. In addition, undesirable air quality is usually linked with the combination of high emissions and adverse weather conditions. However, few studies have been done on the influence of climate change on atmospheric chemistry in the global perspective. Available evidence suggested that climate change is likely to exacerbate certain kinds of air pollutants including ozone and smoke from wildfires. This has become a major public health problem because the interactions of global climate change, urban heat islands, and air pollution have adverse effects on human health. In this chapter, we first review the past and current circumstances of China's responses to air pollution. Then we discuss the control challenges and future options for a better air quality in China. Finally, we begin to unravel links between air pollution and climate change, providing new opportunities for integrated research and actions in China.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Slow science: the value of long ocean biogeochemistry records.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A

2014-09-28

Sustained observations (SOs) have provided invaluable information on the ocean's biology and biogeochemistry for over 50 years. They continue to play a vital role in elucidating the functioning of the marine ecosystem, particularly in the light of ongoing climate change. Repeated, consistent observations have provided the opportunity to resolve temporal and/or spatial variability in ocean biogeochemistry, which has driven exploration of the factors controlling biological parameters and processes. Here, I highlight some of the key breakthroughs in biological oceanography that have been enabled by SOs, which include areas such as trophic dynamics, understanding variability, improved biogeochemical models and the role of ocean biology in the global carbon cycle. In the near future, SOs are poised to make progress on several fronts, including detecting climate change effects on ocean biogeochemistry, high-resolution observations of physical-biological interactions and greater observational capability in both the mesopelagic zone and harsh environments, such as the Arctic. We are now entering a new era for biological SOs, one in which our motivations have evolved from the need to acquire basic understanding of the ocean's state and variability, to a need to understand ocean biogeochemistry in the context of increasing pressure in the form of climate change, overfishing and eutrophication.

Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wisz, M. S.; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, P.; Møller, P. R.; Olsen, S. M.; Swingedouw, D.; Hedeholm, R. B.; Nielsen, E. E.; Guisan, A.; Pellissier, L.

2015-03-01

Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges, this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.

Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2016-04-01

The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

Processes regulating progressive nitrogen limitation under elevated carbon dioxide: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Qi, X.; Souza, L.; Luo, Y.

2015-10-01

Nitrogen (N) cycle has the potential to regulate climate change through its influence on carbon (C) sequestration. Although extensive researches have been done to explore whether or not progressive N limitation (PNL) occurs under CO2 enrichment, a comprehensive assessment of the processes that regulate PNL is still lacking. Here, we quantitatively synthesized the responses of all major processes and pools in terrestrial N cycle with meta-analysis of CO2 experimental data available in the literature. The results showed that CO2 enrichment significantly increased N sequestration in plant and litter pools but not in soil pool. Thus, the basis of PNL occurrence partially exists. However, CO2 enrichment also significantly increased the N influx via biological N fixation, but decreased the N efflux via leaching. In addition, no general diminished CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth over time was observed. Overall, our analyses suggest that the extra N supply by the increased biological N fixation and decreased leaching may potentially alleviate PNL under elevated CO2 conditions. Moreover, our synthesis showed that CO2 enrichment increased soil ammonium (NH4+) but decreased nitrate (NO3-). The different responses of NH4+ and NO3-, and the consequent biological processes, may result in changes in soil microenvironment, community structures and above-belowground interactions, which could potentially affect the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and the feedback to climate change.

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

PubMed

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-25

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

Potential effects of diurnal temperature oscillations on potato late blight with special reference to climate change.

PubMed

Shakya, S K; Goss, E M; Dufault, N S; van Bruggen, A H C

2015-02-01

Global climate change will have effects on diurnal temperature oscillations as well as on average temperatures. Studies on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) development have not considered daily temperature oscillations. We hypothesize that growth and development rates of P. infestans would be less influenced by change in average temperature as the magnitude of fluctuations in daily temperatures increases. We investigated the effects of seven constant (10, 12, 15, 17, 20, 23, and 27°C) and diurnally oscillating (±5 and ±10°C) temperatures around the same means on number of lesions, incubation period, latent period, radial lesion growth rate, and sporulation intensity on detached potato leaves inoculated with two P. infestans isolates from clonal lineages US-8 and US-23. A four-parameter thermodynamic model was used to describe relationships between temperature and disease development measurements. Incubation and latency progression accelerated with increasing oscillations at low mean temperatures but slowed down with increasing oscillations at high mean temperatures (P < 0.005), as hypothesized. Infection efficiency, lesion growth rate, and sporulation increased under small temperature oscillations compared with constant temperatures but decreased when temperature oscillations were large. Thus, diurnal amplitude in temperature should be considered in models of potato late blight, particularly when predicting effects of global climate change on disease development.

Using Time Series of Landsat Data to Improve Understanding of Short- and Long-Term Changes to Vegetation Phenology in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, M. A.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Gray, J. M.

2014-12-01

Phenology, the seasonal progression of organisms through stages of dormancy, active growth, and senescence is a key regulator of ecosystem processes and is widely used as an indicator of vegetation responses to climate change. This is especially true in temperate forests, where seasonal dynamics in canopy development and senescence are tightly coupled to the climate system. Despite this, understanding of climate-phenology interactions is incomplete. A key impediment to improving this understanding is that available datasets are geographically sparse, and in most cases include relatively short time series. Remote sensing has been widely promoted as a useful tool for studies of large-scale phenology, but long-term studies from remote sensing have been limited to AVHRR data, which suffers from limitations related to its coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties in atmospheric corrections and radiometric adjustments that are used to create AVHRR time series. In this study, we used 30 years of Landsat data to quantify the nature and magnitude of long-term trends and short-term variability in the timing of spring leaf emergence and fall senescence. Our analysis focuses on temperate forest locations in the Northeastern United States that are co-located with surface meteorological observations, where we have estimated the timing of leaf emergence and leaf senescence at annual time steps using atmospherically corrected surface reflectances from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Comparison of results from Landsat against ground observations demonstrates that phenological events can be reliably estimated from Landsat time series. More importantly, results from this analysis suggest two main conclusions related to the nature of climate change impacts on temperate forest phenology. First, there is clear evidence of trends towards longer growing seasons in the Landsat record. Second, interannual variability is large, with average year-to-year variability exceeding the magnitude of total changes to the growing season that have occurred over the last three decades. Based on these results we suggest that year-to-year variability in phenology, rather than long-term trends, provides the best basis for predicting future changes in temperate forest phenology in response to climate change.

Managing the global land resource.

PubMed

Smith, Pete

2018-03-14

With a growing population with changing demands, competition for the global land resource is increasing. We need to feed a projected population of 9-10 billion by 2050, rising to approximately 12 billion by 2100. At the same time, we need to reduce the climate impact of agriculture, forestry and other land use, and we almost certainly need to deliver land-based greenhouse gas removal for additional climate change mitigation. In addition, we need to deliver progress towards meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, all without compromising the many ecosystem services provided by land and without exceeding planetary boundaries. Managing the land to tackle these pressing issues is a major global challenge. In this perspective paper, I provide a very broad overview of the main challenges, and explore co-benefits, trade-offs and possible solutions. © 2018 The Authors.

Managing the global land resource

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

With a growing population with changing demands, competition for the global land resource is increasing. We need to feed a projected population of 9–10 billion by 2050, rising to approximately 12 billion by 2100. At the same time, we need to reduce the climate impact of agriculture, forestry and other land use, and we almost certainly need to deliver land-based greenhouse gas removal for additional climate change mitigation. In addition, we need to deliver progress towards meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, all without compromising the many ecosystem services provided by land and without exceeding planetary boundaries. Managing the land to tackle these pressing issues is a major global challenge. In this perspective paper, I provide a very broad overview of the main challenges, and explore co-benefits, trade-offs and possible solutions. PMID:29514961

Mapping Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: progress in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storie, Judith M.

2018-05-01

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies in Africa are on the increase. South Africa is no different, and a number of strategies have seen the light in aid of reducing disaster risk and adapting to cli-mate change. The DRR and CCA processes include the mapping of location and extent of known and potential hazards, vulnerable communities and environments, and opportunities that may exist to manage these risks. However, the mapping of often fast-changing urban and rural spaces in a standardized manner presents challenges that relate to processes, scales of data capture, level of detail recorded, software and compatibility related to data formats and net-works, human resources skills and understanding, as well as differences in approaches to the nature in which the map-ping processes are executed and spatial data is managed. As a result, projects and implementation of strategies that re-late to the use of such data is affected, and the success of activities based on the data may therefore be uncertain. This paper investigates data custodianship and data categories that is processed and managed across South Africa. It explores the process and content management of disaster risk and climate change related information and defines the challenges that exist in terms of governance. The paper also comments on the challenges and potential solutions for the situation as it gives rise to varying degrees of accuracy, effectiveness for use, and applicability of the spatial data available to affect DRR and improve the value of CCA programmes in the region.

Potential Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change on Tampa Bay Estuary Critical Coastal Habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, Edward T.; Greening, Holly S.

2014-02-01

The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.

Potential impacts and management implications of climate change on Tampa Bay estuary critical coastal habitats.

PubMed

Sherwood, Edward T; Greening, Holly S

2014-02-01

The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.

Complexity and interdisciplinary approaches to environmental research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kammen, Daniel M.

2013-03-01

The launch of volume 8 of Environmental Research Letters (ERL) comes at a critical time in terms of innovations and exciting areas of science, but particularly in the areas linking environmental research and action. The most recent climate change Conference of the Parties meeting (COP), in Doha in December 2012, has now come and gone. As has been dissected in the press, very little was accomplished. Some will see this as a failure, as I do, and others will reasonably enough note that this meeting, the 18th such COP was1 never intended to be a milestone moment. The current plan, in fact, is for a 'post-Kyoto' international climate agreement to be adopted only at the COP20 summit in December 2015. As we lead up to COP20, and potentially other regional or national approaches to climate protection, innovations in science, innovations in policy tools, and political commitment must come together. The science of climate change only continues to get clearer and clearer, and bleaker [1]. Later this year the IPCC will release its Fifth Assessment Report, AR5. The draft versions are out for review now. ERL has published a number of papers on climate change science, mitigation and adaptation, but one area where the world needs a particular focus is on the nexus of science and action. A summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings from the first assessment report (FAR; 1990) to the latest report is presented in figure 1. This graphic is specifically not about the scientific record alone. What is most important about this figure is the juxtaposition of the language of science and the language of ... language. Figure 1. Figure 1. A superposition of the state of climate science in three key data sets, and the dates of the first, second, third and fourth assessment reports (FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4, respectively) plotted as vertical lines. On the right are the key statements from each of these reports, along with the conclusion of the Special Report on Renewable Energy (SRREN, completed in 2011) which found that up to an 80% decarbonization of the global economy was possible if we can enable and launch a large-scale transition to a clean energy system consistent with what a number of 'leading edge' cities, regions, and nations have already accomplished or started. Note, in particular, that as the physical climate change metrics have progressed, the words—shown on the right—have also progressed. In 1990, at the time of the FAR the strongest scientific consensus statement was that another decade of data would likely be needed to clearly observe climate change. Through the second to fourth (SAR, TAR, and AR4) reports, increasing clarity on the science of climate change translated into a consensus of overwhelming blame on human activities. The key statements from each report are not only about the growing evidence for anthropogenically driven climate change, but they have moved into the ecological and social impacts of this change. AR4 critically concluded that climate change would lead to climate injustice as the poor, globally, bear the brunt of the impacts. Despite this 'Rosetta Stone' translating science to language, we have failed to act collectively. One area where ERL can advance the overall conversation is on this science/action interface. As AR5 emerges, the climate change/climate response interface will need deep, substantive, action that responds rapidly to new ideas and opportunities. The rapid publication and open access features of ERL are particularly critical here as events a such as Hurricane Sandy, economic or political advances in climate response made by cities, regions or nations, all warrant assessment and response. This is one of many areas where ERL has been at the forefront of the conversation, through not only research letters, but also commentary-style Perspective pieces and the conversation that ERL's sister community website environmentalresearchweb can facilitate. This process of translating proposed solutions—innovations—between interest groups, has been in far too short supply recently. One promising example has been the science/action dialog between a leading climate research center and the World Bank [2]. 'The Earth system's responses to climate change appear to be non-linear', points out Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Director, John Schellnhuber. 'If we venture far beyond the 2° guardrail, towards the 4° line, the risk of crossing tipping points rises sharply. The only way to avoid this is to break the business-as-usual pattern of production and consumption'. This assessment came in a report on climate science commissioned by the World Bank. Dr Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank noted succinctly and critically that: '... most importantly, a 4 °C world is so different from the current one that it comes with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs.' This statement warrants careful discussion. Not only is World Bank President Kim affirming the results of the PIK study, and by direct extension the IPCC (because the same authors at PIK are also central to the work of the IPCC), but he is clearly noting that while many climate analysts rightly talk about the need to not exceed a 2° temperature increase, the path the world is currently on, namely 4°-6° will be catastrophic. This may come as too soft a statement to many in the scientific community, but it opens the door to an increasingly detailed dialog between climate change science and agencies engaged in action. Where ERL and other outlets for this conversation can play a critical role is in the many dimensions of climate change and response. The story is far from one only at the global level. As http://climatehotmap.org and many other location specific assessments detail, the environmental change story is playing out in millions of critical cases. Each warrants reporting and action, as well as integration with assessments of current data gathering and 'big data' needs, and with wider socioeconomic questions of effective political, and policy response. Through that, dialog papers in ERL will be critically important to advancing not only climate science, but the interactive dialog between knowledge and action. References [1] Hansen J, Sato M and Ruedy R 2012 Perception of climate change Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 E2415-23 [2] Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 2013 Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 °C Warmer World Must be Avoided (Washington, DC: The World Bank) 1 The Kyoto Protocol was adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of September 2011, 191 states have signed and ratified the protocol. The United States signed but did not ratify the Protocol and Canada withdrew from it in 2011.

Modeling the Climatic Consequences of Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2005-12-01

The last half-century has seen the development of physically comprehensive computer models of the climate system. These models are the primary tool for making predictions of climate change due to human activities, such as emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Because scientific understanding of the climate system is incomplete, however, any climate model will necessarily have imperfections. The inevitable uncertainties associated with these models have sometimes been cited as reasons for not taking action to reduce such emissions. Climate models could certainly be employed to predict the results of various attempts at geoengineering, but many questions would arise. For example, in considering proposals to increase the planetary reflectivity by brightening parts of the land surface or by orbiting mirrors, can models be used to bound the results and to warm of unintended consequences? How could confidence limits be placed on such model results? How can climate changes due to proposed geoengineering be distinguished from natural variability? There are historical parallels on smaller scales, in which models have been employed to predict the results of attempts to alter the weather, such as the use of cloud seeding for precipitation enhancement, hail suppression and hurricane modification. However, there are also many lessons to be learned from the recent record of using models to simulate the effects of the great unintended geoengineering experiment involving greenhouse gases, now in progress. In this major research effort, the same types of questions have been studied at length. The best modern models have demonstrated an impressive ability to predict some aspects of climate change. A large body of evidence has already accumulated through comparing model predictions to many observed aspects of recent climate change, ranging from increases in ocean heat content to changes in atmospheric water vapor to reductions in glacier extent. The preponderance of expert opinion is that this evidence is now sufficient to establish the human cause of much recent climate change. Nevertheless, no model can provide detailed and fully trustworthy answers to every possible question of interest. As an example, how will the climatology of Atlantic hurricanes change as the greenhouse effect becomes stronger? Can models reliably forecast changes in the length of the hurricane season or changes in the geographical regions affected by hurricanes? The answer is no, or at least, not yet. Additionally, climate models are not based entirely on first principles, such as Newtonian physics. Instead, they have been developed primarily to simulate the present climate and relatively small departures from it. To achieve this goal, a certain amount of empiricism has been built into the models. The result has sometimes been to increase the apparent realism of models at the cost of limiting their generality. Thus, the available climate models may well be less capable of simulating a geoengineering experiment that might lead to a radically different climate. New model development may be required for this new application. The challenge is to distinguish between what models can and cannot do well. It would be irresponsible and unethical, either to undertake geoengineering projects without modeling their consequences, or to place blind faith in the models. To decide how best to model a proposed geoengineering technique requires a deep understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of climate models. The history of modeling successes and failures is a valuable guide to the wise interpretation of model results.

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Effects of climate change on wave height at the coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, J.

2003-04-01

To make progress towards the ultimate objective of predicting coastal vulnerability to climate change, we need to predict the probability of extreme values of sea level and wave height, and their likely variation with changing climate. There is evidence of changes in sea level and wave height on various time-scales. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to be responsible for increasing wave height in the North Atlantic over recent decades. The impact of changes in wave height in the North Atlantic at the coastline in the North Sea, the Hebrides/Malin Shelf and the English Channel will be quite different. Three different, and contrasting areas are examined The effect of changing sea levels, due to global warming and changes in tides and surge height and frequency, is combined with increases in offshore wave height. Coastal wave modelling, using the WAM and SWAN wave models, provides a useful tool for examining the possible impacts of climate change at the coast. This study is part of a Tyndall Centre project which is examining the vulnerability of the UK coast to changing wave climate and sea level. These changes are likely to be especially important in low-lying areas with coastal wetlands such as the north Norfolk coast, which has been selected as a detailed case study area. In this area there are offshore shallow banks and extensive inter-tidal areas. There are transitions from upper marsh to freshwater grazing marshes, sand dunes, shingle beaches, mudflats and sandflats. Many internationally important and varied habitats are threatened by rising sea levels and changes in storminess due to potential climate change effects. Likely changes in overtopping of coastal embankments, inundation of intertidal areas, sediment transport and coastal erosion are examined. Changes in low water level may be important as well as high water. The second area of study is Christchurch Bay in the English Channel. The English Channel is exposed to swell from the North Atlantic and a moderate tidal range. The coastline is quite developed with popular beaches. There are defended and undefended stretches of coastline. The waves reaching the coastline are modulated by the strong tidal streams in the Solent and shoal areas like Shingles Bank. The Sea of the Hebrides is an area important for fishing and tourism, but is the part of the UK exposed to the most severe waves, being most directly connected with the North Atlantic. The UK’s first wave power plant is in operation on Islay. Sea level changes are likely to be relatively unimportant but changes in wave climate could have a direct impact on local economic activity.

Resolving tectonic, climatic, and geomorphologic signatures in the Eocene Green River Formation, Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. E.; Carroll, A. R.

2011-12-01

Tectonic lake basins are windows into the co-evolution of terrestrial climate and topography, but the stratigraphic responses to these drivers are complex and incompletely understood. Coring Quaternary lake basins has provided excellent temporal resolution, but is limited to one-dimensional archives of relatively short duration. Conversely, outcrop-based studies of older deposits can elucidate complex lateral facies relationships and longer time periods, but temporal resolution is often poor due to the lack of marine fossils. However, recent advances in radioisotopic dating have produced highly-resolved records of older lacustrine strata, provided volcanic ash beds are present. The Eocene Green River Formation in Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah is such a record, containing numerous 40Ar/39Ar-dated ash horizons with c.a. ±200 ky 2σ uncertainties. At the scale of individual Members of the Green River Formation (100-400 m), lithofacies and faunas differentiate five distinct lake-type intervals: Luman-Scheggs (fluviolacustrine), Rife (saline), Wilkins Peak (hypersaline-alluvial), Lower LaClede (saline), and Upper LaClede (fluviolacustrine). Although published explanations implicate tectonic and/or climatic control of these changes, both lack significant correlation to bulk lithofacies. While stratal geometries imply that the Uinta Mountains were the principle Eocene driver of flexural subsidence for the Greater Green River Basin (GGRB), conglomerate compositions reveal progressive Paleocene through Eocene unroofing rather than a discreet Early Eocene pulse of Laramide tectonism. Similarly, paleofloral evidence for climatic changes is equivocal. Instead, regional provenance and paleoflow patterns suggest that lake-type changes resulted from progressive hydrologic isolation of the GGRB from orogenic highlands to the west, hydrologic closure, then subsequent integration. From ~53 to ~51.5 Ma, Lake Gosiute expanded from a restricted freshwater to expansive saline lake. Abrupt diversion of a stream originating from the Cordilleran divide at ~51.5 Ma led to alternating deposition of the evaporative Wilkins Peak Member. Another Cordilleran stream carrying debris from the Challis Volcanic Field was subsequently redirected into the GGRB between 49.5 and 49 Ma, allowing the lake to reach its most expansive state, overflow, then progressively infill with volcaniclastic alluvium (Bridger and Washakie Formations) from 49 to 48 Ma. The most convincing example in the Green River Formation of the influence of climate-driven changes occurs at the "bed" scale. Cyclic repetitions of facies, long interpreted to reflect the influence of orbital periodicities, are most pronounced in the evaporative Wilkins Peak Member, where the most prominent periodicity is 10-20 meter scale alternations between lacustrine and alluvial strata. Lacustine intervals contain organic-rich micritic carbonates and bedded evaporates, and alluvial intervals are comprised of fine-grained siliciclastic alluvium with vertebrate traces, incipient pedogenesis, and no evaporite minerals. Interpolation between seven 40Ar/39Ar-dated ash beds indicates that these alternations have a well defined ~100 ky periodicity, a good fit for short eccentricity.

Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies project; Third quarterly technical progress report, December 1993--February 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-04-01

Examination of the paleolithic and geomorphic records to determine the local and regional impact of past climates will advance assessment of Yucca Mountain`s suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. The project includes the integration of botanical, faunal, and geomorphic components to accomplish this goal. Paleobotanical studies will reconstruct the response of vegetation to climate change at the community and the organismal levels by integrating data obtained from nearly continuous sediment records of pollen, plant macrofossils, and stable isotopes from fossil woodrat middens. The goal of the paleofaunas study is to construct a history of Great Basin vertebrates, particularly mammals,more » that will provide empirical evidence of past environmental and climatic conditions within the Great Basin as it is recorded by the animals. Taxonomic composition of archaeological and paleontological faunas from various areas within the Great Basin and morphological change within individual mammalian taxa at specific localities are being investigated to monitor faunal response to changing environmental conditions. The objective of the geomorphology component of the paleoenvironmental program is to document the responses of surficial processes and landforms to the climatic changes documented by studies of packrat middens, pollen, and faunal distributions. The project will focus on: (1) stratigraphic relationships between lake deposits and aeolian or fluvial sediments and landforms; (2) cut and fill sequences in floodplain and river-channel deposits; (3) identification of periods of dune mobility and stability; (4) documentation of episodes of alluvial fan and terrace development and erosion; and (5) correlation of (3) and (4) to climatically driven lake-level fluctuation as revealed by shoreline features such as strandlines and beach ridges. Accomplishments for this period are presented for these studies.« less

African N Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekunda, M.; Galford, G. L.; Hickman, J. E.; Palm, C.

2011-12-01

Africa's smallholder agricultural systems face unique challenges in planning for reducing poverty, concurrent with adaptation and mitigation to climate change. At continental level, policy seeks to promote a uniquely African Green Revolution to increase crop yields and food production, and improve local livelihoods. However, the consequences on the environment and climate are not clear; these pro-economic development measures should be linked to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures, and research is required to help achieve these policy proposals by identifying options, and testing impacts. In particular, increased nitrogen (N) inputs are essential for increasing food production in Africa, but are accompanied by inevitable increases in losses to the environment. These losses appear to be low at input levels promoted in agricultural development programs, while the increased N inputs both increase current food production and appear to reduce the vulnerability of food production to changes in climate. We present field and remote sensing evidence from Malawi that subsidizing improved seed and fertilizers increases resilience to drought without adding excess N to the environment. In Kenya, field research identified thresholds in N2O losses, where emissions are very low at fertilization rates of less than 200 kg ha-1. Village-scale models have identified potential inefficiencies in the food production process where the largest losses of reactive N occur, and which could be targeted to reduce the amount of N released to the environment. We further review some on-going research activities and progress in Africa that compare different methods of managing resources that target resilience in food production and adaptation to climate change, using nutrient N as an indicator, while evaluating the effects of these resource management practices on ecosystems and the environment.

Influence of orographic precipitation on the incision within a mountain-piedmont system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, Valeria; Carretier, Sébastien; Bonnet, Stephane

2017-04-01

The geomorphological evolution of a mountain-piedmont system depends both on tectonics and climate, as well as on couplings between the mountain and its piedmont. Although the interactions between climate and tectonics are a fundamental point for understanding the landscape evolution, the erosion of a mountain range and the sediment deposition at the mountain front, or piedmont, have been poorly studied as a coupled system. Here we focus on the conditions driving an incision within such a system. Classically, it is thought that incision results from a change in climate or uplift rates. However, it is not clear which are the specific conditions that favor the occurrence of river incision in the piedmont. In particular, studies have shown that the presence of a piedmont can modify the incision patterns, and even drive autogenic incision, without any change in external forcings. This is a crucial issue in order to interpret natural incisions in terms of uplift or climatic modifications. Such a problem is further complicated by the modification of local precipitations and temperatures during uplift, because the progressive effect of climate change may superimpose to uplift. In this work we explore the hypothesis that a mountain-piedmont coupled system may develop incision in its piedmont as a result of enhanced orographic precipitations during surface uplift. We use a landscape evolution model, Cidre, in order to explore the response of a mountain-piemont system in which the mountain is continuously uplifted but in which precipitation rates depend on elevations. Thus precipitation amounts change during the mountain uplift. We test different peaks and amplitudes of the orographic precipitation pattern, maintaining the other conditions constant. Preliminary results show that elevation-dependent precipitations drive temporary but pronounced incisions of the main rivers within the piedmont, contrary to experiments without orographic precipitations.

Climate change and alpine stream biology: progress, challenges, and opportunities for the future.

PubMed

Hotaling, Scott; Finn, Debra S; Joseph Giersch, J; Weisrock, David W; Jacobsen, Dean

2017-11-01

In alpine regions worldwide, climate change is dramatically altering ecosystems and affecting biodiversity in many ways. For streams, receding alpine glaciers and snowfields, paired with altered precipitation regimes, are driving shifts in hydrology, species distributions, basal resources, and threatening the very existence of some habitats and biota. Alpine streams harbour substantial species and genetic diversity due to significant habitat insularity and environmental heterogeneity. Climate change is expected to affect alpine stream biodiversity across many levels of biological resolution from micro- to macroscopic organisms and genes to communities. Herein, we describe the current state of alpine stream biology from an organism-focused perspective. We begin by reviewing seven standard and emerging approaches that combine to form the current state of the discipline. We follow with a call for increased synthesis across existing approaches to improve understanding of how these imperiled ecosystems are responding to rapid environmental change. We then take a forward-looking viewpoint on how alpine stream biologists can make better use of existing data sets through temporal comparisons, integrate remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies, and apply genomic tools to refine knowledge of underlying evolutionary processes. We conclude with comments about the future of biodiversity conservation in alpine streams to confront the daunting challenge of mitigating the effects of rapid environmental change in these sentinel ecosystems. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Climate change and alpine stream biology: progress, challenges, and opportunities for the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hotaling, Scott; Finn, Debra S.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Weisrock, David W.; Jacobsen, Dean

2017-01-01

In alpine regions worldwide, climate change is dramatically altering ecosystems and affecting biodiversity in many ways. For streams, receding alpine glaciers and snowfields, paired with altered precipitation regimes, are driving shifts in hydrology, species distributions, basal resources, and threatening the very existence of some habitats and biota. Alpine streams harbour substantial species and genetic diversity due to significant habitat insularity and environmental heterogeneity. Climate change is expected to affect alpine stream biodiversity across many levels of biological resolution from micro- to macroscopic organisms and genes to communities. Herein, we describe the current state of alpine stream biology from an organism-focused perspective. We begin by reviewing seven standard and emerging approaches that combine to form the current state of the discipline. We follow with a call for increased synthesis across existing approaches to improve understanding of how these imperiled ecosystems are responding to rapid environmental change. We then take a forward-looking viewpoint on how alpine stream biologists can make better use of existing data sets through temporal comparisons, integrate remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies, and apply genomic tools to refine knowledge of underlying evolutionary processes. We conclude with comments about the future of biodiversity conservation in alpine streams to confront the daunting challenge of mitigating the effects of rapid environmental change in these sentinel ecosystems.

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

2012-04-01

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies.

The Evolution of Indian and Pacific Ocean Denitrification and Nitrogen Dynamcs since the Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.; Carney, C.; Rosenthal, Y.; Holbourn, A.; Kulhanek, D. K.

2017-12-01

The feedbacks between geochemical cycles and physical climate change are poorly understood; however, there has been tremendous progress in developing coupled models to help predict the direction and strength of these feedbacks. As such, there is a need for more data to validate and test these models. To this end, the nitrogen (N) cycle, and its links to the biological pump and to climate, is an active area of paleoceanographic research. Using N isotope records, Robinson et al. (2014) showed that pelagic denitrification in the Indian and Pacific Oceans intensified as climate cooled and subsurface ventilation decreased since the Pliocene. They pointed out that a more ventilated warm Pliocene contrasts with glacial-interglacial patterns wherein more ventilation occurs during cold phases, indicating that different mechanisms may occur at different timescales. Our objective is to better understand the nature of the feedbacks between the oceanic N cycle and climate by focusing on the large dynamic range of conditions that occurred during and since the Miocene. We used new cores drilled during IODP Expedition 363 to generate bulk sediment N isotope records at three western tropical Pacific sites (U1486, U1488, U1490) and one southeastern tropical Indian Ocean site (U1482). We find that the N isotope trends since the Pliocene are in agreement with previous studies showing increasing denitrification as climate cooled. In the Miocene, the Indian Ocean record shows no long-term N isotope trend whereas the Pacific Ocean records show a trend that is roughly coupled to changes in global climate suggesting that pelagic denitrification in the Pacific was strongly influenced by greater ventilation during global warmth. However, there are notable deviations from this coupling during several intervals in the Miocene, and there are site-to-site differences in trends. These deviations and differences can be explained by changes in tropical productivity (e.g., late Miocene biogenic bloom), which drove changes subsurface oxygenation and denitrification, and by changes in regional circulation. Our study provides fundamental data that can be used to validate conceptual and numerical models of the long-term coupling of climate, biological productivity and ocean chemistry.

Synergistic impacts of deforestation, climate change and fire on the future biomes distribution in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampaio, G.; Cardoso, M. F.; Nobre, C. A.; Salazar, L. F.

2013-05-01

Several studies indicate future increase of environmental risks for the ecosystems in the Amazon region as a result of climate and land-use change, and their synergistic interactions. Modeling studies (e.g. Oyama and Nobre 2004, Salazar et al. 2007, Malhi et al. 2008) project rapid and irreversible replacement of forests by savannas with large-scale losses of biodiversity and livelihoods for people in the region. This process is referred to as the Amazon Dieback, where accelerated plant mortality due to environmental changes lead to forest collapse and savannas expansion after "tipping points" in climate and land surface changes are achieved. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, climate change and fire may combine to affect the distribution of major biomes in Amazonia. Changes in land use consider deforestation scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50% (Sampaio et al., 2007), with and without fires (Cardoso et al., 2008), under the two greenhouse gases scenarios B1 and A2 and three "representative concentration pathways" (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, for years 2015-2034 and 2040-2059 ("2025" and "2050" time-slices), from IPCC AR4 and CMIP5. The results show that the area affected in scenarios A2 and RCP 8.5 is larger than in the climate scenario B1 and RCP 2.6, and in both cases the effect is progressively higher in time. Most important changes occur in the East and South of the Amazon, with replacement of tropical forest by seasonal forest and savanna. The effect of fire in this region is important in all scenarios. The Northwest Amazon presents the smallest changes in the area of tropical forest, indicating that even for substantial land-use modifications and global climate change, the resulting atmospheric conditions would still support tropical forest in the region. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation, climate change resulting from global warming, and the potential for higher fire occurrence may lead to important impacts that add considerably to the vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems in the study region. REFERENCES Cardoso, M. F. ; Nobre, C. A. ; Sampaio, G. ; Hirota, M. ; Valeriano, D. ; Câmara, G. Long-term potential for tropical-forest degradation due to deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon. Biologia (Bratislava), v. 64, p. 433-437, 2009. Malhi Y, et al. (2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319:169-172. Oyama, M.D. and C.A. Nobre (2004), A simple potencial vegetation model for coupling with the Simple Biosphere Model (SIB). Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 19, n. 2, p. 203-216, 2004. Salazar, L. F., C. A. Nobre, and M. D. Oyama (2007), Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09708, doi:10.1029/2007GL029695 Sampaio, G., C. A. Nobre, M. H. Costa, P. Satyamurty, B. S. Soares-Filho and, M. Cardoso (2007), Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030612.

[Predicting the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on the yield of maize in China].

PubMed

Ma, Yu-ping; Sun, Lin-li; E, You-hao; Wu, Wei

2015-01-01

Climate change will significantly affect agricultural production in China. The combination of the integral regression model and the latest climate projection may well assess the impact of future climate change on crop yield. In this paper, the correlation model of maize yield and meteorological factors was firstly established for different provinces in China by using the integral regression method, then the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on China's maize production was evaluated combined the latest climate prediction with the reason be ing analyzed. The results showed that if the current speeds of maize variety improvement and science and technology development were constant, maize yield in China would be mainly in an increasing trend of reduction with time in the next 40 years in a range generally within 5%. Under A2 climate change scenario, the region with the most reduction of maize yield would be the Northeast except during 2021-2030, and the reduction would be generally in the range of 2.3%-4.2%. Maize yield reduction would be also high in the Northwest, Southwest and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River after 2031. Under B2 scenario, the reduction of 5.3% in the Northeast in 2031-2040 would be the greatest across all regions. Other regions with considerable maize yield reduction would be mainly in the Northwest and the Southwest. Reduction in maize yield in North China would be small, generally within 2%, under any scenarios, and that in South China would be almost unchanged. The reduction of maize yield in most regions would be greater under A2 scenario than under B2 scenario except for the period of 2021-2030. The effect of the ten day precipitation on maize yield in northern China would be almost positive. However, the effect of ten day average temperature on yield of maize in all regions would be generally negative. The main reason of maize yield reduction was temperature increase in most provinces but precipitation decrease in a few provinces. Assessments of the future change of maize yield in China based on the different methods were not consistent. Further evaluation needs to consider the change of maize variety and scientific and technological progress, and to enhance the reliability of evaluation models.

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

The Last Interglacial recorded in a Remouchamps cave speleothem (Belgium) -Information on seasonal changes and on the chronology of first climate deteriorations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verheyden, Sophie; Genty, Dominique; Blamart, Dominique; Cheng, Hai; Hodel, Florent; Vansteenberghe, Stef; McGavick, Matthew L.; Gillikin, David P.; Quinif, Yves

2015-04-01

A ~3m long stalagmite from the Remouchamps and ~15cm long stalagmite from the Han-sur-Lesse caves (Belgium) grew from ~124 to 100ka with growth rates going from 0.8mm/century to 30mm/century. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and growth-rate analyses suggest a rather stable climate from 122.0 to 115.8 ka. A clear climate deterioration is observed at ~115.8 ka and lasts until 111.2ka (±0.5ka, 2s), which corresponds well with Greenland Stadial 26. Several short-term but clear changes are observed in the stable isotopic composition at ~121.5, 119.5, 118.4, 117.6 (±0.5ka, 2s)) and are interpreted as climatic events of ~several hundred years long. They correspond with changes in stalagmite diameter and growth rate. Depending on the combination of changes in the d18O, d13C, growth rate and stalagmite diameter, the events are interpreted as corresponding to changes in rainfall amount or temperature. The RSM17 stalagmite exhibits visible seasonal layering during the entire 120-115ka period on which changes in Mg, Sr, Ba en P have been observed. This well pronounced lamination, likely annual as suggested by the U-Th data, demonstrates a strong seasonal character of the climate and/or vegetation activity during this period. We compare these MIS5 seasonality to the present day calcite layering observed in the cave. Both stalagmites, with a growth-rate increase after 125ka globally corresponding to the so-called Eemian optimum, seem to start later than other southern stalagmites from France, Italy or Spain. This observation raises the question of a possible late onset of interglacial conditions in north-west Europe and a progressive S-N advance of warmer conditions between 130 and 125ka through Western Europe.

Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giersch, J. Joseph; Hotaling, Scott; Kovach, Ryan; Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snowmelt-driven alpine streams. Though progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs. Two aquatic insects – the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana and the glacier stonefly Zapada glacier – were recently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced habitat loss. Using a large dataset (272 streams, 482 total sites) with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit L. tumana and Z. glacier across the northern Rocky Mountains. Lednia tumana was detected in 113 streams (175 sites) within Glacier National Park (GNP) and surrounding areas. The probability of L. tumana occurrence increased with cold stream temperatures and close proximity to glaciers and permanent snowfields. Similarly, densities of L. tumana declined with increasing distance from stream source. Zapada glacier was only detected in 10 streams (20 sites), six in GNP and four in mountain ranges up to ~600 km southwest. Our results show that both L. tumana and Z. glacier inhabit an extremely narrow distribution, restricted to short sections of cold, alpine streams often below glaciers predicted to disappear over the next two decades. Climate warming-induced glacier and snow loss clearly imperils the persistence of L. tumana and Z. glacier throughout their ranges, highlighting the role of mountaintop aquatic invertebrates as sentinels of climate change in mid-latitude regions.

Fun Teaching: The Key to the Future Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulvey, G.

2016-12-01

In general meteorology is a science of immediate impact. What will the weather be tomorrow or next week? Climatology and climate change is the science of our long range past and future. Decisions made in the past, now, and in the future on climate change issues did and will continue to impact the global climate. It is essential that current and future generations understand the causes of climate change to make informed decisions regarding individual and government actions needed to mitigate human impacts on the future climate. The university challenge is make climatology an exciting and dynamic adventure into the past, present and future. Instructor and supporting organizations have stepped outside the "old yellow notes" approach to enable students to progress beyond remember, understand, and apply; to analyze, evaluate and create. Responding to this instructional challenge by shifting instructional techniques and tools to a new paradigm does not happen overnight. The instructional strategies to make this jump are known in general, but not in specific. This paper deals with examples of how to translate the instructional strategies into practice in ways that are fun for students and instructors. Techniques to be described include interactive discussions, debates and team challenges, such as: - Describing continental climates during past geological periods - In-class teams debates on legislature to control/modify human CO2 releases Low or no cost teaching aids such as video clips, demonstrations, specimens, and experiments will be described with outcomes and resources interest. Some examples to be discussed are - Tree cookies, cross sections - Ocean core smear slide samples of diatoms, foraminifera, etc. - Ice pack/glacial melt experiments - Glacial flow and interpreting glacial ice cores experiment - Field trips to observe geological strata and geological samples - Storytelling - the shared experiences of each instructor

Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global warming.