Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

PubMed

Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

2016-08-01

Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Potential climate change impacts on four biophysical indicators of cattle production from western US rangelands

Treesearch

Matthew Clark Reeves; Karen E. Bagne; John Tanaka

2017-01-01

We examined multiple environmental factors related to climate change that affect cattle production on rangelands to identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions of the western United States. Climate change effects were projected to 2100 using published spatially explicit model output for four indicators of vulnerability: forage quantity, vegetation type...

The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.

PubMed

Holyoak, Marcel; Heath, Sacha K

2016-01-01

A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats). © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Online Climate Change Modules Timothy C. Spangler, Ph.D., Victoria C. Johnson, Ed.D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangler, T. C.; Johnson, V. C.

2009-12-01

The COMET Program has recently published a new online module entitled "Climate Change: Fitting the Pieces Together." The module, sponsored by the National Environmental and Education Foundation (NEEF), gives a broad overview of the topic of climate change, including how scientists study climate change, observations of current changes, and projections of future impacts, as well as some thoughts on what can be done to minimize the effects. In addition, the module provides links to graphical resources, references, frequently asked questions, and a Powerpoint presentation that teachers, broadcast meteorologists, and others can adapt for their own use. The module presents the information in an engaging fashion, making full use of multimedia through audio, graphics, animations, and interactive features. COMET is also developing another module on a related topic for NEEF and the Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, an environmental organization in Brazil. In addition to providing the basics of climate change science, this course will focus on the interconnections between tropical forests, such as the Amazon, and climate change. The module also addresses international agreements to reduce climate change, with a highlight on the UN-REDD (United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) program. The module, which should be published in late 2009 or early 2010, will have versions in English and Portuguese and possibly Spanish.

Experimental climate change weakens the insurance effect of biodiversity.

PubMed

Eklöf, Johan S; Alsterberg, Christian; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina; Wood, Hannah L; Gamfeldt, Lars

2012-08-01

Ecosystems are simultaneously affected by biodiversity loss and climate change, but we know little about how these factors interact. We predicted that climate warming and CO (2) -enrichment should strengthen trophic cascades by reducing the relative efficiency of predation-resistant herbivores, if herbivore consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. This weakens the insurance effect of herbivore diversity. We tested this prediction using experimental ocean warming and acidification in seagrass mesocosms. Meta-analyses of published experiments first indicated that consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. The experiment then showed that three common herbivores together controlled macroalgae and facilitated seagrass dominance, regardless of climate change. When the predation-vulnerable herbivore was excluded in normal conditions, the two resistant herbivores maintained top-down control. Under warming, however, increased algal growth outstripped control by herbivores and the system became algal-dominated. Consequently, climate change can reduce the relative efficiency of resistant herbivores and weaken the insurance effect of biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) are estimated through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts asso...

Climate change and human infectious diseases: A synthesis of research findings from global and spatio-temporal perspectives.

PubMed

Liang, Lu; Gong, Peng

2017-06-01

The life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents are inextricably linked with climate. In spite of a growing level of interest and progress in determining climate change effects on infectious disease, the debate on the potential health outcomes remains polarizing, which is partly attributable to the varying effects of climate change, different types of pathogen-host systems, and spatio-temporal scales. We summarize the published evidence and show that over the past few decades, the reported negative or uncertain responses of infectious diseases to climate change has been growing. A feature of the research tendency is the focus on temperature and insect-borne diseases at the local and decadal scale. Geographically, regions experiencing higher temperature anomalies have been given more research attention; unfortunately, the Earth's most vulnerable regions to climate variability and extreme events have been less studied. From local to global scales, agreements on the response of infectious diseases to climate change tend to converge. So far, an abundance of findings have been based on statistical methods, with the number of mechanistic studies slowly growing. Research gaps and trends identified in this study should be addressed in the future. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

EPA Science Matters Newsletter: Good for the Climate and Your Health (Published April 2014)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Read about the findings of a study published in Nature Climate Change that looked at the projected global air quality in two scenarios: one with reduced carbon dioxide in the air, and one with increase of the gas, and compared the results.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. The framework was successfully tested in two use scenarios of the GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG aiming to predict species distribution changes due to Climate Change factors, with the scientific patronage of the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop .

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David M.; Smith, Joel B.; Grambsch, Anne

2006-01-01

The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience. PMID:16966082

The use of religious metaphors by UK newspapers to describe and denigrate climate change.

PubMed

Woods, Ruth; Fernández, Ana; Coen, Sharon

2012-04-01

British newspapers have denigrated anthropogenic climate change by misrepresenting scientific consensus and/or framing climate change within unsympathetic discourses. One aspect of the latter that has not been studied is the use of metaphor to disparage climate change science and proponents. This article analyses 122 British newspaper articles published using a religious metaphor between summer 2003 and 2008. Most were critical of climate change, especially articles in conservative newspapers The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and The Times. Articles used religion as a source of metaphor to denigrate climate change in two ways: (1) undermining its scientific status by presenting it as irrational faith-based religion, and proponents as religious extremists intolerant of criticism; (2) mocking climate change using notions of sin, e.g. describing 'green' behaviours as atonement or sacrifice. We argue that the religious metaphor damages constructive debate by emphasizing morality and how climate change is discussed, and detracting attention from the content of scientific data and theories.

Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks

PubMed Central

Jacques, Peter J.

2013-01-01

The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites. PMID:24098056

Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different.

PubMed

Ogden, Nick H; Lindsay, L Robbin

2016-08-01

There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Vanderbilt, Will; Berrang-Ford, Lea

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.

Framing the challenge of climate change in Nature and Science editorials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hulme, Mike; Obermeister, Noam; Randalls, Samuel; Borie, Maud

2018-06-01

Through their editorializing practices, leading international science journals such as Nature and Science interpret the changing roles of science in society and exert considerable influence on scientific priorities and practices. Here we examine nearly 500 editorials published in these two journals between 1966 and 2016 that deal with climate change, thereby constructing a lens through which to view the changing engagement of science and scientists with the issue. A systematic longitudinal frame analysis reveals broad similarities between Nature and Science in the waxing and waning of editorializing attention given to the topic, but, although both journals have diversified how they frame the challenges of climate change, they have done so in different ways. We attribute these differences to three influences: the different political and epistemic cultures into which they publish; their different institutional histories; and their different editors and editorial authorship practices.

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildfire–climate interactions

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu; Scott Goodrick; Warren Heilman

2014-01-01

Increasing wildfire activity in recent decades, partially related to extended droughts, along with concern over potential impacts of future climate change on fire activity has resulted in increased attention on fire–climate interactions. Findings from studies published in recent years have remarkably increased our understanding of fire–climate interactions and improved...

77 FR 19661 - Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-02

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2011-0943; FRL-9655-1] Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of availability and request for comments. SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency is publishing...

Communicating science in public controversies: Strategic considerations of the German climate scientists.

PubMed

Post, Senja

2016-01-01

In public controversies on scientific issues, scientists likely consider the effects of their findings on journalists and on the public debate. A representative survey of 123 German climate scientists (42%) finds that although most climate scientists think that uncertainties about climate change should be made clearer in public they do not actively communicate this to journalists. Moreover, the climate scientists fear that their results could be misinterpreted in public or exploited by interest groups. Asking scientists about their readiness to publish one of two versions of a fictitious research finding shows that their concerns weigh heavier when a result implies that climate change will proceed slowly than when it implies that climate change will proceed fast. © The Author(s) 2014.

Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

PubMed Central

Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina

2016-01-01

Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368

Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

PubMed

Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

2018-09-15

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climate change and One Health.

PubMed

Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-06-01

The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

Climate change and One Health

PubMed Central

Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-01-01

Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983

77 FR 76034 - National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-26

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2011-0943; FRL9716-6] National Water Program 2012... availability. SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is publishing the final ``National Water...-term visions and goals for the management of water resources in light of climate change and charts key...

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

2014-01-01

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has the geographic distribution of authors contributing to the knowledge base for climate change assessments. Authorship of climate change publications from developing countries has increased, although it still represents a small fraction of the total. The unequal distribution of publications presents a challenge to the production of a comprehensive and balanced global assessment.

Bioethics and Climate Change: A Response to Macpherson and Valles.

PubMed

Resnik, David B

2016-10-01

Two articles published in Bioethics recently have explored the ways that bioethics can contribute to the climate change debate. Cheryl Cox Macpherson argues that bioethicists can play an important role in the climate change debate by helping the public to better understand the values at stake and the trade-offs that must be made in individual and social choices, and Sean Valles claims that bioethicists can contribute to the debate by framing the issues in terms of the public health impacts of climate change. While Macpherson and Valles make valid points concerning a potential role for bioethics in the climate change debate, it is important to recognize that much more than ethical analysis and reflection will be needed to significantly impact public attitudes and government policies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C

2015-05-01

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Advancing Australia's role in climate change and health research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Donna; Pitman, Andrew; Barnett, Adrian; Kaldor, John; Doherty, Peter; Stanley, Fiona

2017-02-01

A major Australian government report published 25 years ago called for urgent investment in research on the impacts of climate change on human health. Since that report's release, less than 0.1% of Australian health funding has been allocated to this area. As the world continues on a high emissions pathway, the health impacts from climate change are increasing in size and complexity. While Australia has established leadership roles in climate science and health research, it must now link these two strengths. Doing so would boost regional understanding of how climate change will affect health and what adaptation strategies are needed to reduce these threats. Such research would support better health planning and decision-making in partnership with other regional countries.

Climate change, urbanization and disease: summer in the city….

PubMed

Reiner, Robert C; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W

2015-03-01

Climate change and urbanization can alter the burden of human diseases. The tropics, a region that includes the poorest populations and highest disease burdens, are expected to get slightly hotter and substantially more urban. Studies have projected changing burdens under different climate or urbanization scenarios, but it remains unclear what will happen if both happen at once. Interactions could amplify disease burdens, improve health overall, or shift burdens around. Social planners need better data on contemporary seasonal disease incidence patterns across the spectrum of climate, urbanicity and socio-economic status. How climate change, urbanization and health interact must be understood to adequately plan for the future. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

A collection of Australian Drosophila datasets on climate adaptation and species distributions.

PubMed

Hangartner, Sandra B; Hoffmann, Ary A; Smith, Ailie; Griffin, Philippa C

2015-11-24

The Australian Drosophila Ecology and Evolution Resource (ADEER) collates Australian datasets on drosophilid flies, which are aimed at investigating questions around climate adaptation, species distribution limits and population genetics. Australian drosophilid species are diverse in climatic tolerance, geographic distribution and behaviour. Many species are restricted to the tropics, a few are temperate specialists, and some have broad distributions across climatic regions. Whereas some species show adaptability to climate changes through genetic and plastic changes, other species have limited adaptive capacity. This knowledge has been used to identify traits and genetic polymorphisms involved in climate change adaptation and build predictive models of responses to climate change. ADEER brings together 103 datasets from 39 studies published between 1982-2013 in a single online resource. All datasets can be downloaded freely in full, along with maps and other visualisations. These historical datasets are preserved for future studies, which will be especially useful for assessing climate-related changes over time.

Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

2015-04-01

Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city government; for NOSCCA: OSPAR, the intergovernmental commission for protecting and conserving the North-East Atlantic and its resources).

Climate Change? Who Knows? A Comparison of Secondary Students and Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boon, Helen J.

2010-01-01

In the context of recently published academic discrepancies between Queensland students and students from other Australian states, final year pre-service teachers were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of climate change. Their responses were compared to those of secondary students to discern any significant gains in knowledge…

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics of Dianchi Lake Basin under the Background of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenyu, Yu; Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Qiongfei, Deng

2017-05-01

Based on the data published by the State Statistical Bureau and the weather station data, the annual mean temperature, wind speed, humidity, light duration and precipitation of Dianchi Lake in 1990 ~ 2014 were analysed. Combined with the population The results show that the climatic changes in Dianchi Lake basin are related to the climatic change in the past 25 years, and the correlation between these factors and the main climatic factors are analysed by linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly, R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis. Population, housing construction area growth and other aspects of the correlation trends and changes in the process, revealing the population expansion and housing construction area growth on the climate of the main factors of the cycle tendency of significant impact.

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

PubMed

McMahon, Sean M; Harrison, Sandy P; Armbruster, W Scott; Bartlein, Patrick J; Beale, Colin M; Edwards, Mary E; Kattge, Jens; Midgley, Guy; Morin, Xavier; Prentice, I Colin

2011-05-01

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Building community resilience to climate change through public health planning.

PubMed

Bajayo, Rachael

2012-04-01

Nillumbik Shire Council, in partnership with La Trobe University, used the Municipal Public Health Planning process to develop an approach for building the resilience of local communities to climate-related stressors. The objective was to define an approach for building community resilience to climate change and to integrate this approach with the 'Environments for Health' framework. Key published papers and reports by leading experts the field were reviewed. Literature was selected based on its relevance to the subjects of community resilience and climate change and was derived from local and international publications, the vast majority published within the past two decades. Review of literature on community resilience revealed that four principal resource sets contribute to the capacity of communities to adapt in times of stress, these being: economic development; social capital; information and communication; and community competence. On the strength of findings, a framework for building each resilience resource set within each of the Environments for Health was constructed. This paper introduces the newly constructed 'Community Resilience Framework', which describes how each one of the four resilience resource sets can be developed within social, built, natural and economic environments. The Community Resilience Framework defines an approach for simultaneously creating supportive environments for health and increasing community capacity for adaptation to climate-related stressors. As such, it can be used by Municipal Public Health Planners as a guide in building community resilience to climate change.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015.

PubMed

2016-02-01

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The Panels provide a detailed assessment report every four years. The most recent 2014 Quadrennial Assessment by the EEAP was published as a special issue of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). The next Quadrennial Assessment will be published in 2018/2019. In the interim, the EEAP generally produces an annual update or progress report of the relevant scientific findings. The present progress report for 2015 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change.

AGU Journals Among Most Cited Publications in Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sears, Jon

2010-03-01

Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) and Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres (JGR-D) both ranked among the top 10 of the most highly cited research publications on climate change over the past decade in a recent analysis by sciencewatch.com, an Internet tool published by the Thomson Reuters Web of Science® that tracks trends and performances in basic research. Although Nature and Science—the multidisciplinary heavyweights—led the field, GRL ranked fifth and JGR-D ranked sixth. The study was conducted by searching the Web of Science® database for terms such as “global warming,” “climate change,” “human impact,” and other key phrases in journal articles published and cited between 1999 and the spring of 2009. The analysis produced over 28,000 papers, from which sciencewatch.com identified the most cited institutions, authors, and journals. To see the analysis in full, visit http://sciencewatch.com/ana/fea/09novdecFea/.

Our Globally Changing Climate. Chapter 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Easterling, D. R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W. V.;

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

PubMed

Hamann, Andreas; Roberts, David R; Barber, Quinn E; Carroll, Carlos; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-02-01

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities). © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Direct impacts of climatic warming on heat stress in endothermic species: seabirds as bioindicators of changing thermoregulatory constraints.

PubMed

Oswald, Stephen A; Arnold, Jennifer M

2012-06-01

There is now abundant evidence that contemporary climatic change has indirectly affected a wide-range of species by changing trophic interactions, competition, epidemiology and habitat. However, direct physiological impacts of changing climates are rarely reported for endothermic species, despite being commonly reported for ectotherms. We review the evidence for changing physiological constraints on endothermic vertebrates at high temperatures, integrating theoretical and empirical perspectives on the morphology, physiology and behavior of marine birds. Potential for increasing heat stress exposure depends on changes in multiple environmental variables, not just air temperature, as well as organism-specific morphology, physiology and behavior. Endotherms breeding at high latitudes are vulnerable to the forecast, extensive temperature changes because of the adaptations they possess to minimize heat loss. Low-latitude species will also be challenged as they currently live close to their thermal limits and will likely suffer future water shortages. Small, highly-active species, particularly aerial foragers, are acutely vulnerable as they are least able to dissipate heat at high temperatures. Overall, direct physiological impacts of climatic change appear underrepresented in the published literature, but available data suggest they have much potential to shape behavior, morphology and distribution of endothermic species. Coincidence between future heat stress events and other energetic constraints on endotherms remains largely unexplored but will be key in determining the physiological impacts of climatic change. Multi-scale, biophysical modeling, informed by experiments that quantify thermoregulatory responses of endotherms to heat stress, is an essential precursor to urgently-needed analyses at the population or species level. © 2012 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

PubMed

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-12

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

Modern nature and climate changes in Siberia: new methods and results of analysis of instrumented observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabanov, Mikhail V.

2002-02-01

Peculiarity of nature and climate changes in middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia is that the temporal variability of meteorological quantities here has a wide range and their spatial variability has a complicated zone structure. Therefore, regional monitoring of modern nature and climate changes in Siberia is of scientific interest from the viewpoint of the global changes observed. Another Siberian peculiarity is associated with the fact that there are many unique objects that have global importance both as natural complexes (boreal forests, water- bog systems, Baikal lake, etc.) And as technogenic objects (oil and gas production, coal mining, metallurgy, transport, etc.). Therefore monitoring and modeling of regional nature and climate changes in Siberia have great practical importance, which is underestimated now, for industrial development of Siberia. Taking into account the above peculiarities and tendencies on investigation of global and regional environmental and climate changes, the multidisciplinary project on Climate and Ecological Monitoring of Siberia (CEMS) was accepted to the research and development program Sibir' since 1993. To realize this project, the Climate and Ecological Observatory was established in Tomsk at the Institute for Optical Monitoring (IOM) SB RAS. At the present time the stations (the basic and background ones) of this observatory are in a progress and theory and instruments for monitoring are being developed as well. In this paper we discuss some results obtained in the framework of CEMS project that were partially published in the monographs, in scientific journals, and will be published in the Proceedings of the 8th Joint International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics and Atmosphere Physics. This review has a purpose not only to discuss the obtained regularities but also to formulate scientific and technical tasks for further investigations into the regional changes of technogenic, natural, and climate systems.

Considerations for building climate-based species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Basille, Mathieu; Romañach, Stephanie; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Watling, James I.

2016-01-01

Climate plays an important role in the distribution of species. A given species may adjust to new conditions in-place, move to new areas with suitable climates, or go extinct. Scientists and conservation practitioners use mathematical models to predict the effects of future climate change on wildlife and plan for a biodiverse future. This 8-page fact sheet written by David N. Bucklin, Mathieu Basille, Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Frank J. Mazzotti, and James I. Watling and published by the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation explains how, with a better understanding of species distribution models, we can predict how species may respond to climate change. The models alone cannot tell us how a certain species will actually respond to changes in climate, but they can inform conservation planning that aims to allow species to both adapt in place and (for those that are able to) move to newly suitable areas. Such planning will likely minimize loss of biodiversity due to climate change.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. PMID:24669859

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

PubMed

Nielsen, Uffe N; Wall, Diana H

2013-03-01

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty-first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non-native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non-native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

The nature of the beast: examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes

Treesearch

Joshua S. Halofsky; Daniel C. Donato; Jerry F. Franklin; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Brian J. Harvey

2018-01-01

Building resilience to natural disturbances is a key to managing forests for adaptation to climate change. To date, most climate adaptation guidance has focused on recommendations for frequent-fire forests, leaving few published guidelines for forests that naturally experience infrequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Because most such forests are inherently resilient to...

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

PubMed

Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

2018-04-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

Forest diversity, climate change and forest fires in the Mediterranean region of Turkey.

PubMed

Ozturk, Munir; Gucel, Salih; Kucuk, Mahir; Sakcali, Serdal

2010-01-01

This paper reviews the forest resources in Turkey in the light of published literature and summarises extensive fieldwork undertaken in the Mediterranean phytogeograhical region of Turkey. The issues of landscape change and the associated drivers are addressed and the threats to the forest diversity are considered. It notes the impacts of climate change and forest fires and attemepts have been made to put forth future options for sustainable forest development.

Conserving the zoological resources of Bangladesh under a changing climate.

PubMed

DAS, Bidhan C

2009-06-01

It is now well recognized that Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea level rise. Low levels of natural resources and a high occurrence of natural disasters further add to the challenges faced by the country. The impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Ecosystems and biodiversity are important key sectors of the economy and natural resources of the country are selected as the most vulnerable to climate change. It is for these reasons that Bangladesh should prepare to conserve its natural resources under changed climatic conditions. Unfortunately, the development of specific strategies and policies to address the effects of climate change on the ecosystem and on biodiversity has not commenced in Bangladesh. Here, I present a detailed review of animal resources of Bangladesh, an outline of the major areas in zoological research to be integrated to adapt to climate change, and identified few components for each of the aforesaid areas in relation to the natural resource conservation and management in the country. © 2009 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative.

PubMed

English, Paul B; Sinclair, Amber H; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-11-01

To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.

Environmental Health Indicators of Climate Change for the United States: Findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative

PubMed Central

English, Paul B.; Sinclair, Amber H.; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-01-01

Objective To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. Data sources We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Data extraction Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. Data synthesis We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. Conclusions A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity. PMID:20049116

Measuring the burden of disease due to climate change and developing a forecast model in South Korea.

PubMed

Yoon, S-J; Oh, I-H; Seo, H-Y; Kim, E-J

2014-08-01

Climate change influences human health in various ways, and quantitative assessments of the effect of climate change on health at national level are becoming essential for environmental health management. This study quantified the burden of disease attributable to climate change in Korea using disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and projected how this would change over time. Diseases related to climate change in Korea were selected, and meteorological data for each risk factor of climate change were collected. Mortality was calculated, and a database of incidence and prevalence was established. After measuring the burden of each disease, the total burden of disease related to climate change was assessed by multiplying population-attributable fractions. Finally, an estimation model for the burden of disease was built based on Korean climate data. The total burden of disease related to climate change in Korea was 6.85 DALY/1000 population in 2008. Cerebrovascular diseases induced by heat waves accounted for 72.1% of the total burden of disease (hypertensive disease 1.82 DALY/1000 population, ischaemic heart disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population, cerebrovascular disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population). According to the estimation model, the total burden of disease will be 11.48 DALY/1000 population in 2100, which is twice the total burden of disease in 2008. This study quantified the burden of disease caused by climate change in Korea, and provides valuable information for determining the priorities of environmental health policy in East Asian countries with similar climates. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global food security under climate change

PubMed Central

Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) are estimated through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE), driven by epidemiologically-derived concentration-response relationships. Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen.

Anthropology is missing: on the World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change.

PubMed

Trostle, James

2010-07-01

When the World Bank publishes a report on climate change, the world takes notice. What are its diagnoses and treatments, and how present is anthropology in this analysis? The 2010 World Development Report on climate change provides few new diagnostic tools and no clear Bank policy revisions. It often fails to harmonize neoliberal development rhetoric with new climate-change imperatives. It nods to the importance of social context and risk perception yet refers primarily to behavioral economics and psychological constructs. Although anthropologists are documenting the local effects and human responses to larger-scale, climate-driven processes, our work is absent in the report. To play a role at global scale we would do well to learn more about concepts like nonlinearity and emergence, systems analysis, modeling, and disease dynamics. Our adroitness in developing metaphors and methods for crossing scale will make our efforts more visible and applicable.

Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

PubMed

Stern, Nicholas

2015-08-07

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

Economic development, climate and values: making policy

PubMed Central

Stern, Nicholas

2015-01-01

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

PubMed

Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

2015-11-01

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, Theodore S.

There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

Influence of climate change on the incidence and impact of arenavirus diseases: a speculative assessment.

PubMed

Clegg, J C

2009-06-01

The current worldwide incidence of viral haemorrhagic fevers caused by arenaviruses is briefly reviewed. The recently published Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has described the changes in global climate that are expected to occur over the course of the present century and beyond. Climate modelling and forecasting have not yet reached the stage where confident predictions of regional changes at the level of a virus endemic area can be made. However, in the regions where pathogenic arenaviruses now circulate, significant effects are likely to include increases in surface temperature, changes in the extent and distribution of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme weather events, glacier retreat, and coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise. The possible impact of these changes on the geographical location and the incidence of arenavirus diseases and its human impact are discussed.

Croatian edition of Milankovich's book - Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandzic, Kreso; Likso, Tanja

2010-05-01

Original of Milankovich's book "Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics" was published by Naučna knjiga in Belgrade in 1948. The book was written in Serbian and in Cyrillic alphabet. Although Serbian and Croatian are similar languages the last could be an obstacle for understanding cited book especially for new generations in Croatia. An idea for publication of a new Croatian eddition has been accepted by Prosvjeta, publisher from Croatia. That eddition appeared at the end of 2008. This was also an oportunity for doing a separate analysis of the book in the form of a preface to the new eddition published in Latin alphabet and Croatian terminology. In that preface, beside an analysis of book content, a short Milankovich's biography has been performed as well as an scientific echo of Milankovich's astronomical theory since 1948 until nowadays. In a summary it has been concluded that there is no any disagreement between Milankovich's theory on climate changes and recent greenhouse theory, only, a quite different time scales are under consideration i.e. tenth thousand years and hundred years, respectively. (On the occasion of 130-th anniversary of Milutin Milankovich 's birth.)

Climate change: what competencies and which medical education and training approaches?

PubMed

Bell, Erica J

2010-04-30

Much research has been devoted to identifying healthcare needs in a climate-changing world. However, while there are now global and national policy statements about the importance of health workforce development for climate change, little has been published about what competencies might be demanded of practitioners in a climate-changing world. In such a context, this debate and discussion paper aims to explore the nature of key competencies and related opportunities for teaching climate change in medical education and training. Particular emphasis is made on preparation for practice in rural and remote regions likely to be greatly affected by climate change. The paper describes what kinds of competencies for climate change might be included in medical education and training. It explores which curricula, teaching, learning and assessment approaches might be involved. Rather than arguing for major changes to medical education and training, this paper explores well established precedents to offer practical suggestions for where a particular kind of literacy--eco-medical literacy--and related competencies could be naturally integrated into existing elements of medical education and training. The health effects of climate change have, generally, not yet been integrated into medical education and training systems. However, the necessary competencies could be taught by building on existing models, best practice and innovative traditions in medicine. Even in crowded curricula, climate change offers an opportunity to reinforce and extend understandings of how interactions between people and place affect health.

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

2016-01-01

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Herders' perceptions of and responses to climate change in northern Pakistan.

PubMed

Joshi, S; Jasra, W A; Ismail, M; Shrestha, R M; Yi, S L; Wu, N

2013-09-01

Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders' perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders' perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders' perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10-15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning.

The 3rd Report on Climate Change in Catalonia: a joint initiative to bridge the gap between Science and Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queralt, Arnau; Llasat, Maria del Carmen; Serena, Josep Maria; Pont, Isabel

2017-04-01

In January 2017 the Government of Catalonia (Advisory Council for the Sustainable Development, Catalan Office for Climate Change, and Meteorological Service of Catalonia) and the Institute for Catalan Studies presented the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia, whose aims are (1) to gather and summarise the most recent information on climate change and its effects on the natural and human systems in Catalonia (and to identify existing knowledge gaps), (2) to make recommendations to decision-makers, and (3) to rise decision-makers and citizens awareness on the effects of climate change and the importance of reinforce mitigation and adaptation efforts. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, impacts and subsequent adaptive action may differ across countries and regions. In accordance to this, and with the aim of downscaling the contents of the IPCC reports, the first report on climate change in Catalonia was published in 2005 and was followed by a second edition in 2010. Directly linked to this second report, the Catalan Panel on Climate Change was established. During a year and a half more than 130 authors and 40 scientific and technical revisers (assisted by a board and technical staff from the leading institutions) have participated in the third assessment of climate change in Catalonia. The report updates the observations and projections related to the climate evolution at Catalonia and its impacts, gathering the most advanced scientific knowledge and providing the Catalan Government with sectorial recommendations to face these impacts. After its official launch in January 2017, the report will be presented and discussed with several ministers and officials within the Catalan Government, but also with the main stakeholders. These presentations and dialogue are strategic actions for bridging the gap between Science and Policy-making regarding climate change. An executive summary identifying in a very focused way the main messages arising from the report has been prepared to contribute to this information sharing process. The summary has been prepared in English, French and Spanish in order to share the information with the International Community. The promoters of this report are highly interested in making a broad diffusion of its conclusions and recommendations among stakeholders and citizens. According to this, an ambitious communication plan has been designed, including 10 sectorial workshops around Catalonia, specific presentations to selected stakeholders and institutions, and high impact articles and programs in the media. This communication plan will be implemented throughout the year 2017. The report has been published and disseminated thanks to the contribution of "La Caixa" Banking Foundation.

Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

2012-12-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Kjellström, Erik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sonnenborg, Torben; Meier, Markus; Grinsted, Aslak

2015-04-01

Regional climate models have been used extensively since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region published in 2008, not the least for studies of Europe (and including the Baltic Sea catchment area). Therefore, conclusions regarding climate model results have a better foundation than was the case for the first BACC report of 2008. This presentation will report model results regarding future climate. What is the state of understanding about future human-driven climate change? We will cover regional models, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, ocean modelling and sea-level change as it is projected for the Baltic Sea region. Collections of regional model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for example, financed through the European 5th Framework Programme and the World Climate Research Programme Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, have made it possible to obtain an increasingly robust estimation of model uncertainty. While the first Baltic Sea assessment mainly used four simulations from the European 5th Framework Programme PRUDENCE project, an ensemble of 13 transient regional simulations with twice the horizontal resolution reaching the end of the 21st century has been available from the ENSEMBLES project; therefore it has been possible to obtain more quantitative assessments of model uncertainty. The literature about future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is largely built upon the ENSEMBLES project. Also within statistical downscaling, a considerable number of papers have been published, encompassing now the application of non-linear statistical models, projected changes in extremes and correction of climate model biases. The uncertainty of hydrological change has received increasing attention since the previous Baltic Sea assessment. Several studies on the propagation of uncertainties originating in GCMs, RCMs, and emission scenarios are presented. The number of studies on uncertainties related to downscaling and impact models is relatively small, but more are emerging. A large number of coupled climate-environmental scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea have been performed within the BONUS+ projects (ECOSUPPORT, INFLOW, AMBER and Baltic-C (2009-2011)), using various combinations of output from GCMs, RCMs, hydrological models and scenarios for load and emission of nutrients as forcing for Baltic Sea models. Such a large ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea has never before been produced and enables for the first time an estimation of uncertainties.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

Comment on “Geochemistry of buried river sediments from Ghaggar Plains, NW India: Multi-proxy records of variations in provenance, paleoclimate, and paleovegetation patterns in the late quaternary” by Ajit Singh, Debajyoti Paul, Rajiv Sinha, Kristina J. Thomsen, Sanjeev Gupta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clift, Peter D.; Giosan, Liviu; East, Amy E.

2016-01-01

Singh et al. (2016) published a geochemical record of sediment compositions from the flood plain of the Ghaggar River in western India and use the changing provenance, particularly as traced by Nd isotope composition, to reconstruct how erosion patterns have changed over the past 100 k.y. In doing so they propose a link between climate change and erosion, and they argue for more erosion from the Higher Himalaya during warmer interglacial periods and more from the Lesser Himalaya during glacial intervals. While we support the concept of erosion patterns being climatically modulated we here take the opportunity to compare the data presented by Singh et al. (2016) to relevant published records within the region greater Ghaggar region and to open a balanced discussion on how climate and erosion are coupled in the western Himalaya.

Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

2004-01-01

Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Transferring climate research results to stakeholder needs in Northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, Insa

2013-04-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also, numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

PubMed

Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

2016-07-01

Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC.

Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F.S.

2007-01-01

The warming associated with changes in snow cover in northern high-latitude terrestrial regions represents an important energy feedback to the climate system. Here, we simulate snow cover-climate feedbacks (i.e. changes in snow cover on atmospheric heating) across the Pan-arctic over two distinct warming periods during the 20th century, 1910-1940 and 1970-2000. We offer evidence that increases in snow cover-climate feedbacks during 1970-2000 were nearly three times larger than during 1910-1940 because the recent snow-cover change occurred in spring, when radiation load is highest, rather than in autumn. Based on linear regression analysis, we also detected a greater sensitivity of snow cover-climate feedbacks to temperature trends during the more recent time period. Pan-arctic vegetation types differed substantially in snow cover-climate feedbacks. Those with a high seasonal contrast in albedo, such as tundra, showed much larger changes in atmospheric heating than did those with a low seasonal contrast in albedo, such as forests, even if the changes in snow-cover duration were similar across the vegetation types. These changes in energy exchange warrant careful consideration in studies of climate change, particularly with respect to associated shifts in vegetation between forests, grasslands, and tundra. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Coffee and chocolate in danger.

PubMed

Gross, Michael

2014-06-02

As a rapidly growing global consumer base appreciates the pleasures of coffee and chocolate and health warnings are being replaced by more encouraging sounds from medical experts, their supply is under threat from climate change, pests and financial problems. Coffee farmers in Central America, in particular, are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, made worse by financial insecurity. Michael Gross reports. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses.

PubMed

Gienapp, P; Teplitsky, C; Alho, J S; Mills, J A; Merilä, J

2008-01-01

Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative consequences of climate change. We reviewed the empirical evidence for recent microevolutionary responses to climate change in longitudinal studies emphasizing the following three perspectives emerging from the published data. First, although signatures of climate change are clearly visible in many ecological processes, similar examples of microevolutionary responses in literature are in fact very rare. Second, the quality of evidence for microevolutionary responses to climate change is far from satisfactory as the documented responses are often - if not typically - based on nongenetic data. We reinforce the view that it is as important to make the distinction between genetic (evolutionary) and phenotypic (includes a nongenetic, plastic component) responses clear, as it is to understand the relative roles of plasticity and genetics in adaptation to climate change. Third, in order to illustrate the difficulties and their potential ubiquity in detection of microevolution in response to natural selection, we reviewed the quantitative genetic studies on microevolutionary responses to natural selection in the context of long-term studies of vertebrates. The available evidence points to the overall conclusion that many responses perceived as adaptations to changing environmental conditions could be environmentally induced plastic responses rather than microevolutionary adaptations. Hence, clear-cut evidence indicating a significant role for evolutionary adaptation to ongoing climate warming is conspicuously scarce.

Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2015-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

2017-10-01

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Social Science Guide for Communication on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, C.; Marx, S.; Markowitz, E.

2014-12-01

Researchers from the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) published "The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public" in 2009. This landmark guide provided climate change communicators a synthesis of the social science research that was pertinent to understanding how people think about climate change and how the practice could be improved. In the fall of 2014 this guide will be rereleased, with a new title, and in a partnership between CRED and ecoAmerica. The updated guide addresses how and why Americans respond in certain ways to climate change and explains how communicators can apply best practices to their own work. The guide, which includes research from a range of social science fields including psychology, anthropology, communications, and behavioral economics, is designed to be useful for experienced and novice communicators alike. Included in the guide are strategies to boost engagement, common mistakes to avoid, and best practices that organizations around the world have used to meaningfully engage individuals and groups on climate change. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of the main findings and tips from the 2014 climate change communication guide. It will provide a deeper look at a few of the key points that are crucial for increasing audience engagement with climate change including understanding how identity shapes climate change, how to lead with solutions, and how to bring the impacts of climate change close to home. It will highlight tips for motivating positive behavior change that will lead people down the path toward solutions. Finally, it will address the benefits and challenges associated with producing a communication guide and insight into synthesizing social science research findings into a usable format for a variety of audiences.

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol

PubMed Central

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Introduction For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. Methods and analysis A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. PMID:28011805

Integrating Climate Change into Habitat Conservation Plans Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A.; Opperman, Jeffrey J.

2012-06-01

Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

PubMed

Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

2012-06-01

Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. This framework was assessed in two use scenarios of GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG. Both scenarios concern the prediction of species distributions driven by climatological change forecasts. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. The scientific patronage was provided by the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska, respectively. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop.

Knowledge Mapping for Climate Change and Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Höuser, Christoph; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Frechen, Tobias; Kistemann, Thomas

2012-02-01

The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied ( Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food-and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases.

Knowledge Mapping for Climate Change and Food- and Waterborne Diseases

PubMed Central

Semenza, Jan C.; Höuser, Christoph; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Frechen, Tobias; Kistemann, Thomas

2011-01-01

The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied (Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food-and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases. PMID:24771989

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Climate Changes and Human Health: A Review of the Effect of Environmental Stressors on Cardiovascular Diseases Across Epidemiology and Biological Mechanisms.

PubMed

Giorgini, Paolo; Di Giosia, Paolo; Petrarca, Marco; Lattanzio, Francesco; Stamerra, Cosimo Andrea; Ferri, Claudio

2017-01-01

Climate change is rapidly affecting all the regions of our planet. The most relevant example is global warming, which impacts on the earth's ecosystems, threatening human health. Other effects include extreme variations in temperature and increases in air pollution. These events may negatively impact mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we discuss the main effects of climate changes on cardiovascular diseases, reporting the epidemiological evidences and the biological mechanisms linking climate change consequences to hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, heart failure and stroke. Up to now, findings suggest that humans acclimate under different weather conditions, even though extreme temperatures and higher levels of air pollution can influence health-related outcomes. In these cases, climate change adversely affects cardiovascular system and the high-risk subjects for cardiovascular diseases are those more exposed. Finally, we examine climate change implications on publich health and suggest adaptation strategies to monitor the high-risk population, and reduce the amount of hospital admissions associated to these events. Such interventions may minimize the costs of public health and reduce the mortality for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases.

PubMed

Booth, Mark

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Documenting Matured Science: The BACC-Type Assessment Reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckermann, M.; Omstedt, A. T.

2016-12-01

The BACC-type reports (BALTEX and Baltic Earth Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region, BACC 2008 and BACC II 2015) represent an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). The BACC assessments have originated in the BALTEX scientific research community (now Baltic Earth) and are coordinated by the International Baltic Earth Secretariat. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The report of 2015 was compiled by a different group of authors as 2008 to warrant independence of personal opinions and bias. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. Outreach to stakeholders and the public is an inherent aspect of this approach to document mature science. For the Baltic Sea, there is a close collaboration with HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region. A summary for non-scientists was produced for the first BACC report and is in preparation for the second. Other BACC-type reports published are the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (published in 2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment), published in 2016.

Energy Literacy: A Natural and Essential Part of a Solutions-Based Approach to Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inman, M. M.

2011-12-01

As with climate science topics, many Americans have misconceptions or gaps in understanding related to energy topics. Recent literacy efforts are geared to address these gaps in understanding. The U.S. Global Change Research Program's recently published "Energy Literacy: Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Energy Education" offers a welcome complement to the Climate Literacy Essential Principles released in 2008. Research and experience suggest that education, communication and outreach about global climate change and related topics is best done using a solutions-based approach. Energy is a natural and effective topic to frame these solutions around. Used as a framework for designing curricula, Energy Literacy naturally leads to solutions-based approaches to Climate Change education. An inherently interdisciplinary topic, energy education must happen in the context of both the natural and social sciences. The Energy Literacy Essential Principles reflect this and open the door to curriculum that integrates the two.

Media Articles Describing Advances in Scientific Research as a Vehicle for Student Engagement Fostering Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brassell, S. C.

2014-12-01

"Records of Global Climate Change" enables students to fulfill the science component of an undergraduate distribution requirement in "Critical Approaches" at IU Bloomington. The course draws students from all disciplines with varying levels of understanding of scientific approaches and often limited familiarity with climate issues. Its discussion sessions seek to foster scientific literacy via an alternating series of assignments focused on a combination of exercises that involve either examination and interpretation of on-line climate data or consideration and assessment of the scientific basis of new discoveries about climate change contained in recently published media articles. The final assignment linked to the discussion sessions requires students to review and summarize the topics discussed during the semester. Their answers provide direct evidence of newly acquired abilities to assimilate and evaluate scientific information on a range of topics related to climate change. In addition, student responses to an end-of-semester survey confirm that the vast majority considers that their knowledge and understanding of climate change was enhanced, and unsolicited comments note that the discussion sessions contributed greatly to this advancement. Many students remarked that the course's emphasis on examination of paleoclimate records helped their comprehension of the unprecedented nature of present-day climate trends. Others reported that their views on the significance of climate change had been transformed, and some commented that they now felt well equipped to engage in discussions about climate change because they were better informed about its scientific basis and facts.

Can genomics deliver climate-change ready crops?

PubMed

Varshney, Rajeev K; Singh, Vikas K; Kumar, Arvind; Powell, Wayne; Sorrells, Mark E

2018-04-20

Development of climate resilient crops with accelerating genetic gains in crops will require integration of different disciplines/technologies, to see the impact in the farmer's field. In this review, we summarize how we are utilizing our germplasm collections to identify superior alleles/haplotypes through NGS based sequencing approaches and how genomics-enabled technologies together with precise phenotyping are being used in crop breeding. Pre-breeding and genomics-assisted breeding approaches are contributing to the more efficient development of climate-resilient crops. It is anticipated that the integration of several disciplines/technologies will result in the delivery of climate change ready crops in less time. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

PubMed

Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G

2018-03-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe

PubMed Central

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe. PMID:25452694

Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.

PubMed

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.

Land Cover Land Use change and soil organic carbon under climate variability in the semi-arid West African Sahel (1960-2050)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieye, Amadou M.

Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change affects land surface processes recognized to influence climate change at local, national and global levels. Soil organic carbon is a key component for the functioning of agro-ecosystems and has a direct effect on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the soil. The capacity to model and project LCLU change is of considerable interest for mitigation and adaptation measures in response to climate change. A combination of remote sensing analyses, qualitative social survey techniques, and biogeochemical modeling was used to study the relationships between climate change, LCLU change and soil organic carbon in the semi-arid rural zone of Senegal between 1960 and 2050. For this purpose, four research hypotheses were addressed. This research aims to contribute to an understanding of future land cover land use change in the semi-arid West African Sahel with respect to climate variability and human activities. Its findings may provide insights to enable policy makers at local to national levels to formulate environmentally and economically adapted policy decisions. This dissertation research has to date resulted in two published and one submitted paper.

Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Enwright, Nicholas M; Day, Richard H; Gabler, Christopher A; Stagg, Camille L; Grace, James B

2016-01-01

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

2013-12-01

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes, and the emergence of risks that are place-based vs. systemic.

Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2014-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

40 CFR 1037.810 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... must publish a notice of the change in the Federal Register and the material must be available to the... software is also available for download at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm. (2) [Reserved] (d... working version of this software is also available for download at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm. ...

Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

PubMed

Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

2015-05-22

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Increasing temperature exacerbated Classic Maya conflict over the long term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleton, W. Christopher; Campbell, David; Collard, Mark

2017-05-01

The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363-888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success.

PubMed

Auer, Sonya K; Martin, Thomas E

2013-02-01

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant-herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant-herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant-herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Linking Wildfire and Climate as Drivers of Plant Species and Community-level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newingham, B. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Bright, B. C.

2015-12-01

Plant species distributions and community shifts after fire are affected by burn severity, elevation, aspect, and climate. However, little empirical data exists on long-term (decadal) recovery after fire across these interacting factors, limiting understanding of fire regime characteristics and climate in post-fire community trajectories. We examined plant species and community responses a decade after fire across five fires in ponderosa pine, dry mixed coniferous, and moist mixed coniferous forests across the western USA. Using field data, we determined changes in plant communities one and ten years post-fire across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and aspect. Existing published work has shown that plant species distributions can be accurately predicted from physiologically relevant climate variables using non-parametric Random Forests models; such models have also been linked to projected climate profiles in 2030, 2060, and 2090 generated from three commonly used general circulation models (GCMs). We explore the possibility that fire and climate are coupled drivers affecting plant species distributions. Climate change may not manifest as a slow shift in plant species distributions, but as sudden, localized events tied to changing fire and other disturbance regimes.

Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change.

PubMed

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L; Farquhar, Graham D

2018-03-06

There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P ) database (1940-2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.

PubMed

Machalaba, Catherine; Romanelli, Cristina; Stoett, Peter; Baum, Sarah E; Bouley, Timothy A; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William B

2015-01-01

Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address other health, environmental, and societal challenges. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature change on mussel, Mytilus.

PubMed

Zippay, Mackenzie L; Helmuth, Brian

2012-09-01

An increasing body of research has demonstrated the often idiosyncratic responses of organisms to climate-related factors, such as increases in air, sea and land surface temperatures, especially when coupled with non-climatic stressors. This argues that sweeping generalizations about the likely impacts of climate change on organisms and ecosystems are likely less valuable than process-based explorations that focus on key species and ecosystems. Mussels in the genus Mytilus have been studied for centuries, and much is known of their physiology and ecology. Like other intertidal organisms, these animals may serve as early indicators of climate change impacts. As structuring species, their survival has cascading impacts on many other species, making them ecologically important, in addition to their economic value as a food source. Here, we briefly review the categories of information available on the effects of temperature change on mussels within this genus. Although a considerable body of information exists about the genus in general, knowledge gaps still exist, specifically in our ability to predict how specific populations are likely to respond to the effects of multiple stressors, both climate and non-climate related, and how these changes are likely to result in ecosystem-level responses. Whereas this genus provides an excellent model for exploring the effects of climate change on natural and human-managed ecosystems, much work remains if we are to make predictions of likely impacts of environmental change on scales that are relevant to climate adaptation. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

PubMed

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-09-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production.

PubMed

Leppi, Jason C; Rinella, Daniel J; Wilson, Ryan R; Loya, Wendy M

2014-06-01

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat. © 2013 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

Introduction to the Symposium: Parasites and Pests in Motion: Biology, Biodiversity and Climate Change.

PubMed

Williams, Jason D; Boyko, Christopher B

2016-10-01

Although climate change can cause extreme alterations to ecosystems, only limited research has investigated how altered physical conditions (e.g., warming, extreme temperature events, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and altered precipitation) influence species interactions. In particular, the interplay between host and parasites in such a changing world is in need of study. Our objective in organizing this symposium was to bring together researchers working on a wide variety of natural enemies (parasites, pathogens, and pests), to exchange knowledge on how aspects of global climate change may alter the distribution and ecology of these organisms and their hosts. It is our intention that the symposium and the resulting articles will foster more accurate modeling of and predictions about the impacts of climate change on the biology and ecology of natural enemies and their hosts. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy

2015-08-01

Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

2012-04-01

Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific.

Preface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia (Editor); Hillel, Daniel (Editor)

2015-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on the food production system are raising concern both globally and regionally. The system is already challenged to deliver sufficient and healthy sustenance to all people, and is certain to be even further challenged as world population grows and price shocks loom. The prospect of climate change intensifies these challenges, raising the risk that more frequent and intense extreme weather events threaten the stability of agricultural production in regions around the globe. This two-part set is an important contribution to the ongoing Imperial College Press (ICP) Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. This series aims to provide the know ledge base necessary for understanding and responding to climate change, in both its current form and future manifestations. In these volumes, ·leading agricultural researchers have come together to contribute their expertise on actual and potential climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation efforts. This ongoing series is jointly published by The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), together with ICP. We hope that this fruitful cooperation will continue for many years to come, as it spurs the global effort to define and meet the great food security and climate change challenges of our time.

A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

2017-06-01

Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change and health in Earth's future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

2014-02-01

Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Pilbeam, David J

2015-06-01

Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

PubMed

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

What would an environmentally sustainable reproductive technology industry look like?

PubMed

Richie, Cristina

2015-05-01

Through the use of assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), multiple children are born adding to worldwide carbon emissions. Evaluating the ethics of offering reproductive services against its overall harm to the environment makes unregulated ARTs unjustified, yet the ART business can move towards sustainability as a part of the larger green bioethics movement. By integrating ecological ethos into the ART industry, climate change can be mitigated and the conversation about consumption can become a broader public discourse. Although the impact of naturally made children on the environment is undeniable, I will focus on the ART industry as an anthropogenic source of carbon emissions which lead to climate change. The ART industry is an often overlooked source of environmental degradation and decidedly different from natural reproduction as fertility centres provide a service for a fee and therefore can be subject to economic, policy and bioethical scrutiny. In this article, I will provide a brief background on the current state of human-driven climate change before suggesting two conservationist strategies that can be employed in the ART business. First, endorsing a carbon capping programme that limits the carbon emissions of ART businesses will be proposed. Second, I will recommend that policymakers eliminate funded ARTs for those who are not biologically infertile. I will conclude the article by urging policymakers and all those concerned with climate change to consider the effects of the reproductive technologies industry in light of climate change and move towards sustainability. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A Review of Frameworks for Developing Environmental Health Indicators for Climate Change and Health

PubMed Central

Hambling, Tammy; Weinstein, Philip; Slaney, David

2011-01-01

The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health. PMID:21845162

Which early works are cited most frequently in climate change research literature? A bibliometric approach based on Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Marx, Werner; Haunschild, Robin; Thor, Andreas; Bornmann, Lutz

2017-01-01

This bibliometric analysis focuses on the general history of climate change research and, more specifically, on the discovery of the greenhouse effect. First, the Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) is applied to a large publication set on climate change of 222,060 papers published between 1980 and 2014. The references cited therein were extracted and analyzed with regard to publications, which are cited most frequently. Second, a new method for establishing a more subject-specific publication set for applying RPYS (based on the co-citations of a marker reference) is proposed (RPYS-CO). The RPYS of the climate change literature focuses on the history of climate change research in total. We identified 35 highly-cited publications across all disciplines, which include fundamental early scientific works of the nineteenth century (with a weak connection to climate change) and some cornerstones of science with a stronger connection to climate change. By using the Arrhenius (Philos Mag J Sci Ser 5(41):237-276, 1896) paper as a RPYS-CO marker paper, we selected only publications specifically discussing the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the role of carbon dioxide. Using different RPYS approaches in this study, we were able to identify the complete range of works of the celebrated icons as well as many less known works relevant for the history of climate change research. The analyses confirmed the potential of the RPYS method for historical studies: Seminal papers are detected on the basis of the references cited by the overall community without any further assumptions.

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

PubMed

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes: an assessment of the most vulnerable--the mother, fetus, and newborn child.

PubMed

Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2013-03-11

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a large amount of evidence about global warming and the impact of human activities on global climate change. The Lancet Commission have identified a number of ways in which climate change can influence human health: lack of food and safe drinking water, poor sanitation, population migration, changing disease patterns and morbidity, more frequent extreme weather events, and lack of shelter. Pregnant women, the developing fetus, and young children are considered the most vulnerable members of our species and are already marginalized in many countries. Therefore, they may have increased sensitivity to the effects of climate change. Published literature in the fields of climate change, human health, tropical diseases, and direct heat exposure were assessed through the regular search engines. This article demonstrates that climate change will increase the risk of infant and maternal mortality, birth complications, and poorer reproductive health, especially in tropical, developing countries. Thus, climate change will have a substantial impact on the health and survival of the next generation among already challenged populations. There is limited knowledge regarding which regions will be most heavily affected. Research efforts are therefore required to identify the most vulnerable populations, fill knowledge gaps, and coordinate efforts to reduce negative health consequences. The effects of malnutrition, infectious diseases, environmental problems, and direct heat exposure on maternal health outcomes will lead to severe health risks for mothers and children. Increased focus on antenatal care is recommended to prevent worsening maternal health and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Interventions to reduce the negative health impacts caused by climate change are also crucial. Every effort should be made to develop and maintain good antenatal care during extreme life conditions as a result of climate change.

Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes: an assessment of the most vulnerable – the mother, fetus, and newborn child

PubMed Central

Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2013-01-01

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a large amount of evidence about global warming and the impact of human activities on global climate change. The Lancet Commission have identified a number of ways in which climate change can influence human health: lack of food and safe drinking water, poor sanitation, population migration, changing disease patterns and morbidity, more frequent extreme weather events, and lack of shelter. Pregnant women, the developing fetus, and young children are considered the most vulnerable members of our species and are already marginalized in many countries. Therefore, they may have increased sensitivity to the effects of climate change. Published literature in the fields of climate change, human health, tropical diseases, and direct heat exposure were assessed through the regular search engines. This article demonstrates that climate change will increase the risk of infant and maternal mortality, birth complications, and poorer reproductive health, especially in tropical, developing countries. Thus, climate change will have a substantial impact on the health and survival of the next generation among already challenged populations. There is limited knowledge regarding which regions will be most heavily affected. Research efforts are therefore required to identify the most vulnerable populations, fill knowledge gaps, and coordinate efforts to reduce negative health consequences. The effects of malnutrition, infectious diseases, environmental problems, and direct heat exposure on maternal health outcomes will lead to severe health risks for mothers and children. Increased focus on antenatal care is recommended to prevent worsening maternal health and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Interventions to reduce the negative health impacts caused by climate change are also crucial. Every effort should be made to develop and maintain good antenatal care during extreme life conditions as a result of climate change. PMID:23481091

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors.

PubMed

Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R; Dubayah, Ralph O

2017-09-01

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr -1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Rind, David; Goldberg, Richard

1990-01-01

New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.

The effect of climate change on skin disease in North America.

PubMed

Kaffenberger, Benjamin H; Shetlar, David; Norton, Scott A; Rosenbach, Misha

2017-01-01

Global temperatures continue to rise, reaching new records almost every year this decade. Although the causes are debated, climate change is a reality. Consequences of climate change include melting of the arctic ice cap, rising of sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased severe weather events. This article updates dermatologists about the effects of climate change on the epidemiology and geographic ranges of selected skin diseases in North America. Although globalization, travel, and trade are also important to changing disease and vector patterns, climate change creates favorable habitats and expanded access to immunologically naïve hosts. Endemic North American illnesses such as Lyme disease, leishmaniasis, and dimorphic fungal infections have recently expanded the geographic areas of risk. As temperatures increase, epidemic viral diseases such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease may develop transmission seasons that are longer and more intense. Chikungunya and dengue are now reported within the southern United States, with Zika on the horizon. Cutaneous injuries from aquatic and marine organisms that have expanding habitats and longer durations of peak activity include jellyfish envenomation, cercarial dermatitis, and seabather eruption, among others. Skin cancer rates may also be affected indirectly by changes in temperature and associated behaviors. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Credibility of Climate Science Information: A Roadmap for Educators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.

2017-12-01

Although there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that humans are driving modern day climate change, a significant portion of Americans are still not convinced. One reason for this gap in understanding results from a large body of misinformation that is easily accessible by students and educators. Here the author presents an effective teaching model to allow students to assess the credibility of organizations and their authors who publish climate science information aimed toward the general public.

Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium

PubMed Central

Wanamaker, Alan D.; Butler, Paul G.; Scourse, James D.; Heinemeier, Jan; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Richardson, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

Despite numerous investigations, the dynamical origins of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age remain uncertain. A major unresolved issue relating to internal climate dynamics is the mode and tempo of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, and the significance of decadal-to-centennial scale changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength in regulating the climate of the last millennium. Here we use the time-constrained high-resolution local radiocarbon reservoir age offset derived from an absolutely dated annually resolved shell chronology spanning the past 1,350 years, to reconstruct changes in surface ocean circulation and climate. The water mass tracer data presented here from the North Icelandic shelf, combined with previously published data from the Arctic and subtropical Atlantic, show that surface Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dynamics likely amplified the relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the relatively cool conditions during the Little Ice Age within the North Atlantic sector. PMID:22692542

Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium.

PubMed

Wanamaker, Alan D; Butler, Paul G; Scourse, James D; Heinemeier, Jan; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Richardson, Christopher A

2012-06-12

Despite numerous investigations, the dynamical origins of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age remain uncertain. A major unresolved issue relating to internal climate dynamics is the mode and tempo of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, and the significance of decadal-to-centennial scale changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength in regulating the climate of the last millennium. Here we use the time-constrained high-resolution local radiocarbon reservoir age offset derived from an absolutely dated annually resolved shell chronology spanning the past 1,350 years, to reconstruct changes in surface ocean circulation and climate. The water mass tracer data presented here from the North Icelandic shelf, combined with previously published data from the Arctic and subtropical Atlantic, show that surface Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dynamics likely amplified the relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the relatively cool conditions during the Little Ice Age within the North Atlantic sector.

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

PubMed

Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2012-04-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole wetlands and climate change: An Introduction to the Supplemental Issue

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.

2016-01-01

The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape and recognized value, great interest in how projected future changes in climate will affect prairie-pothole wetlands has developed and spawned much scientific research. On June 2, 2015, a special symposium, “Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole Wetlands: Influence of a Changed Climate,” was held at the annual meeting of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, Rhode Island, USA. The symposium’s twelve presenters covered a wide range of relevant topics delivered to a standing-room-only audience. Following the symposium, the presenters recognized the need to publish their presented papers as a combined product to facilitate widespread distribution. The need for additional papers to more fully cover the topic of prairie-pothole wetlands and climate change was also identified. This supplemental issue of Wetlands is the realization of that vision.

Assessment of Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.; Barker, C. M.; Garofalo, J.; Hahn, M.; Hayden, M.; Ogden, N.; Schramm, P.

2016-12-01

Vector-borne diseases are illnesses that are transmitted by vectors, which include mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. The seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases are influenced significantly by climate factors, primarily high and low temperature extremes and precipitation patterns. In this presentation we summarize key findings from Chapter 5 ("Vector-borne Diseases") of the recently published USGCRP Scientific Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States. Climate change is expected to alter geographic and seasonal distributions of vectors and vector-borne diseases, leading to earlier activity and northward range expansion of ticks capable of carrying the bacteria that cause Lyme disease and other pathogens, and influencing the distribution, abundance and prevalence of infection in mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus and other pathogens. The emergence or reemergence of vector-borne pathogens is also likely.

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

PubMed

Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

2017-09-01

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Waldhoff, S.; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, J.; Jantarasami, L.; Shouse, K.; Crimmins, A.; Li, J.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the physical impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change. The primary goal of this framework is to estimate the degree to which climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced in the 21st century under multiple greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The first phase of the CIRA project is a modeling exercise that included two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing five broad impacts sectors: water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, and ecosystems. Three consistent socioeconomic and climate scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios with total radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2. In this exercise, the implications of key uncertainties are explored, including climate sensitivity, climate model, natural variability, and model structures and parameters. This presentation describes the motivations and goals of the CIRA project; the design and academic contribution of the first CIRA modeling exercise; and briefly summarizes several papers published in a special issue of Climatic Change. The results across impact sectors show that GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over time, the effects of climate change can be strongly influenced by near-term policy choices, adaptation can reduce net damages, and impacts exhibit spatial and temporal patterns that may inform mitigation and adaptation policy discussions.

Structure and vulnerability of Pacific Northwest tidal wetlands – A summary of wetland climate change research by the Western Ecology Division, U.S. EPA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Folger, Christina L; Lee, Henry; Janousek, Christopher N.; Reusser, Deborah A.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.

Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

2018-06-01

Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends. Human encounters with these types of creatures are likely to increase, resulting in potential human morbidity and mortality. Temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms may have a dramatic effect on venomous terrestrial species. As climate change affects the distribution, populations, and life histories of these organisms, the chance of encounters could be altered, thus affecting human health and the survivability of these creatures. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Remotely Sensed Data for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI), NASA Johnson Space Center, and Jacobs Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jagge, Amy

2016-01-01

With ever changing landscapes and environmental conditions due to human induced climate change, adaptability is imperative for the long-term success of facilities and Federal agency missions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, indicators such as above-ground biomass change must be identified to establish a comprehensive monitoring effort. Researching the varying effects of climate change on ecosystems can provide a scientific framework that will help produce informative, strategic and tactical policies for environmental adaptation. As a proactive approach to climate change mitigation, NASA tasked the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI) to provide climate change expertise and data to Center facility managers and planners in order to ensure sustainability based on predictive models and current research. Generation of historical datasets that will be used in an agency-wide effort to establish strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at NASA facilities is part of the CASI strategy. Using time series of historical remotely sensed data is well-established means of measuring change over time. CASI investigators have acquired multispectral and hyperspectral optical and LiDAR remotely sensed datasets from NASA Earth Observation Satellites (including the International Space Station), airborne sensors, and astronaut photography using hand held digital cameras to create a historical dataset for the Johnson Space Center, as well as the Houston and Galveston area. The raster imagery within each dataset has been georectified, and the multispectral and hyperspectral imagery has been atmospherically corrected. Using ArcGIS for Server, the CASI-Regional Remote Sensing data has been published as an image service, and can be visualized through a basic web mapping application. Future work will include a customized web mapping application created using a JavaScript Application Programming Interface (API), and inclusion of the CASI data for the NASA Johnson Space Center into a NASA-Wide GIS Institutional Portal.

Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

PubMed

Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

2015-09-02

Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives.

PubMed

Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Karcher, Michael; Gascard, Jean-Claude

2017-12-01

This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.

Adapting legume crops to climate change using genomic approaches.

PubMed

Mousavi-Derazmahalleh, Mahsa; Bayer, Philipp E; Hane, James K; Valliyodan, Babu; Nguyen, Henry T; Nelson, Matthew N; Erskine, William; Varshney, Rajeev K; Papa, Roberto; Edwards, David

2018-03-30

Our agricultural system and hence food security is threatened by combination of events, such as increasing population, the impacts of climate change, and the need to a more sustainable development. Evolutionary adaptation may help some species to overcome environmental changes through new selection pressures driven by climate change. However, success of evolutionary adaptation is dependent on various factors, one of which is the extent of genetic variation available within species. Genomic approaches provide an exceptional opportunity to identify genetic variation that can be employed in crop improvement programs. In this review, we illustrate some of the routinely used genomics-based methods as well as recent breakthroughs, which facilitate assessment of genetic variation and discovery of adaptive genes in legumes. Although additional information is needed, the current utility of selection tools indicate a robust ability to utilize existing variation among legumes to address the challenges of climate uncertainty. © 2018 The Authors. Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

PubMed

Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Viovy, Nicolas; Leadley, Paul

2012-06-01

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species.

PubMed

Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

2015-01-01

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.

PubMed

Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L Scott; Nowak, J Joshua

2016-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health.

PubMed

Schulte, P A; Bhattacharya, A; Butler, C R; Chun, H K; Jacklitsch, B; Jacobs, T; Kiefer, M; Lincoln, J; Pendergrass, S; Shire, J; Watson, J; Wagner, G R

2016-11-01

In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988-2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008-2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers.

Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health

PubMed Central

Schulte, P.A.; Bhattacharya, A.; Butler, C.R.; Chun, H.K.; Jacklitsch, B.; Jacobs, T.; Kiefer, M.; Lincoln, J.; Pendergrass, S.; Shire, J.; Watson, J.; Wagner, G.R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988–2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008–2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers. PMID:27115294

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

2014-10-22

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.

PubMed

Williams, Martin L; Lott, Melissa C; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Dajnak, David; Walton, Heather; Holland, Mike; Pye, Steve; Fecht, Daniela; Toledano, Mireille B; Beevers, Sean D

2018-05-01

Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. NO 2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO 2 itself. PM 2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM 2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472 000 more life-years lost from PM 2·5 in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1 122 000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM 2·5 than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050. The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent. National Institute for Health Research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of simulated corn yields and associated uncertainty in different climate zones of China using Daycent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, A.; Xue, Y.

2017-12-01

Corn is one of most important agricultural production in China. Research on the simulation of corn yields and the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on corn yields is important in maintaining the stable corn production. After climatic data including daily temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed from 1948 to 2010, soil properties, observed corn yields, and farmland management information were collected, corn yields grown in humidity and hot environment (Sichuang province) and cold and dry environment (Hebei province) in China in the past 63 years were simulated by Daycent, and the results was evaluated based on published yield record. The relationship between regional climate change, global warming and corn yield were analyzed, the uncertainties of simulation derived from agricultural management practices by changing fertilization levels, land fertilizer maintenance and tillage methods were reported. The results showed that: (1) Daycent model is capable to simulate corn yields under the different climatic background in China. (2) When studying the relationship between regional climate change and corn yields, it has been found that observed and simulated corn yields increased along with total regional climate change. (3) When studying the relationship between the global warming and corn yields, It was discovered that newly-simulated corn yields after removing the global warming trend of original temperature data were lower than before.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

PubMed

Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

2015-10-01

Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P < 0.0163) and on sites with relatively warmer and drier local climate (R² = 0.55, P < 0.0056). Volatility in the rate of change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P < 0.0256). Over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, forest compositional change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

2016-11-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

PubMed

Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What influence have science blogs had, and on whom?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steig, E. J.

2012-12-01

Blogs are perhaps the most influential of the "new media" when it comes to the communication (and miscommunication) of climate change (and other science) with the public. Have blogs significantly influenced the way that public understanding of science is reached? Have they blurred the distinction between scientist and layperson? Have they fundamentally changed the way science is conducted? As one of the co-founders of RealClimate.org, I have had the good fortune of experiencing one of the most prominent scientific blogs in the world from the inside. My experiences as a participant in RealClimate -- and as an actively publishing scientist in the climate change research -- lead me to answer each of these question largely in the negative. Certainly, the directness with which scientists can reach the public has changed, but the scientific findings that have the most influence are still largely those that are published in traditional peer-reviewed journals, and picked up by the mainstream media. While some people may read blogs regularly, the vast majority of people still get their science news the old fashioned way. Business people, policy-makers and other professional consumers of science may get some of their information from blogs, but for anything requiring serious documentation, the published literature remains the standard. Similarly, while the idea of the "citizen-scientist" doing important research is appealing, the number of people actually involved in such work at a high level -- that is, getting their work to the stage that it is publishable -- is very few, and is dwarfed by the full-time research of academic and government scientists. Science -- and public understanding of science -- has thus proceeded largely as it would have without the blogs, without any fundamental change. That said, there are two area where I think that blogs have changed the way that science is conducted and communicated. First, communication among scientists -- particularly those that write blogs themselves -- has become far more rapid and serendipitous, and has allowed new interdisciplinary collaborations to develop much more rapidly than they would have otherwise. Second, those scientists that participate in prominent blogs are sought out by the conventional media more often than they would be otherwise (and sometimes in disproportion to their actual expertise). The greatest impact of the blogs has thus been on the bloggers themselves.

Phenology at the crossroads?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzel, Annette

2014-05-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events such as plant growth or animal migration. Currently nearly 500 papers are published annually that include 'phenolog*' in their title; many are related to anthropogenic change. Since seasonal events are triggered predominantly by climate, phenology has emerged as a key asset in identifying fingerprints of climate change in natural systems, especially since recent warming has been mirrored by significantly advancing spring events. Phenological changes have been reported across continents, habitats and taxa, predominantly as mean temporal changes ('trends') or as relationships to temperature and other drivers ('responses'), and have been summarised in various meta-analyses. However, a considerable variability in observed trends and responses is reported along with mixed messages of the footprint of climate change in nature. Phenology has made considerable advances but is a crossroads of understanding this variability. At the same time a change of emphasis in explanation, prediction and adaptation is emerging, which needs a full acknowledgement of this variability; likely yielding to more plasticity and resilience. In this review, I summarize current knowledge and recent insights into the role of • different observation methods, their accuracy and their target phenophases • observed events, species, traits, ontogenetic effects • species-specific safeguarding strategies, e.g. chilling, photoperiod • additional drivers other than climate, e.g. nutrients, GHG, biotic effects, anthropogenic / agricultural management • seasonal as well as spatio-temporal variation, effects of regional climate changes and analogous climates. This review clearly demonstrated that, comparable to weather and climate ensembles, only a full consideration of variation in responses allows a complete understanding of ecological, cultural and socioeconomic consequences of these phenological changes.

Climate Change in Colorado: Findings and Scientific Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J.; Ray, A.; Averyt, K.; Wolter, K.; Hoerling, M. P.

2008-12-01

In response to the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, Governor Ritter issued the Colorado Climate Action Plan (CCAP) in 2007. In support of the adaptation component of the CCAP, the Colorado Water Conservation Board commissioned the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado to prepare the report "Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation." The objective of "Climate Change in Colorado" is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources. Accordingly, the document focuses on observed trends, modeling, attribution, and projections of hydroclimatic variables that are important for Colorado's water supply. Although many published datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus on the state. Consequently, many important analyses for Colorado are lacking. The report summarizes Colorado-specific findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and presents new analyses derived from existing datasets. Here we will summarize the findings of the report, discuss the extent to which conclusions from West-wide studies hold in Colorado, and highlight the many scientific challenges that were faced in the preparation of the report. These challenges include interpreting observed and projected precipitation and temperature variability and trends, dealing with attribution and uncertainty at the state level, and justifying the relevance of climate model projections in a topographically complex state. A second presentation (Ray et al.) discusses the process of developing the report.

Reanalysis of Mariner 9 UV spectrometer data for ozone, cloud, and dust abundances, and their interaction over climate timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindner, Bernhard Lee

1992-01-01

Research activities to date are discussed. Selected Mariner 9 UV spectra were obtained. Radiative transfer models were updated and then exercised to simulate spectra. Simulated and observed spectra compare favorably. It is noted that large amounts of ozone are currently not retrieved with reflectance spectroscopy, raising large doubts about earlier published ozone abundances. As these published abundances have been used as a benchmark for all theoretical photochemical models of Mars, this deserves further exploration. Three manuscripts were published, and one is in review. Papers were presented and published at three conferences, and are planned for five more conferences in the next six months. The research plan for the next reporting period is discussed and involves continuing studies of reflectance spectroscopy, further examination of Mariner 9 data, and climate change studies of ozone.

Spatiotemporal Trends in late-Holocene Fire Regimes in Arctic and Boreal Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoecker, T. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.; Kelly, R.

2015-12-01

Alaskan arctic and boreal ecosystems are of global importance owing to their sensitivity and feedbacks to directional climate change. Wildfires are a primary driver of boreal carbon balance, and altered fire regimes may significantly impact global climate through the release of stored carbon and changes to surface albedo. Paleoecological records provide a window to how these systems respond to change by revealing climatic and disturbance variability throughout the Holocene. These long-term records highlight the sensitivity of fire regimes to climate and vegetation change, including responses to the relatively warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA). Over millennial timescales, boreal forests and arctic tundra have been resilient to climate change, but continued directional climate change may result in novel vegetation compositions and fire regimes, with potentially significant implications for global climate. Here we present a spatiotemporal synthesis of 22 published sediment-charcoal records from three Alaskan ecoregions. We add to this network eight records collected in June 2015 from an additional ecoregion. Variability in fire return intervals (FRIs) was quantified within and among ecoregions and climatic periods spanning the past 2 millennia, based on a peak analysis representing local fire events. Preliminary results suggest that fire regimes were responsive to centennial-scale climatic shifts, including the MCA and LIA, but the degree of sensitivity varies by ecoregion. Over the past 2000 years, FRIs were shortest during the MCA, indicating the potential for climate warming to promote high rates of burning. FRIs in tundra regions of northwestern Alaska and in interior boreal forests were 20% shorter during the MCA than during the LIA, and 25% shorter in boreal forest in the south-central Brooks Range. Burning was likely promoted during the warmer, drier MCA through lower fuel moisture. Quantifying fire-regime response to climate forcing across multiple ecoregions helps reveal the mechanisms that connect fire and climate in Alaskan ecosystems.

'Back to the future': how archaeological remains can describe salmon adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Blanchet, Simon; Dubut, Vincent

2012-05-01

A strategy for species to survive climate change will be to change adaptively their way of life. Understanding rapid adaptation to climate change is therefore a priority for current research. In this issue, Turrero et al. (2012) use an original approach to unravel life history trait responses to climate change in two fish species (Salmo trutta and S. salar). Going against the flow, the authors adopt the strategy of going back to the future by investigating the responses of fish to the warming periods that followed the Last Glacial Period (approximately 30-20,000 years BP). To do this, they analysed Salmo vertebrae from well-dated archaeological sites in northern Spain in order to uncover key life history traits, which they then compared to those of contemporary specimens. They found that, as the climate got warmer, Salmo species tended to reduce the time spent in growing areas and reached spawning areas at a younger age; this tendency began approximately 15,000 years BP and accelerated in contemporary periods. The implication is a lower age at maturity and a lower reproductive success, which they tentatively related to recent declines in population growth rate. This innovative study demonstrates how changes in life history traits are linked both to the population growth rate and to the evolutionary rate under climatic constraints, which may serve as a basis for future conservation research. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

PubMed

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

2013-03-01

Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Data needs and data bases for climate studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, Elaine

1986-01-01

Two complementary global digital data bases of vegetation and land use, compiled at 1 deg resolution from published sources for use in climate studies, are discussed. The data bases were implemented, in several individually tailored formulations, in a series of climate related applications including: land-surface prescriptions in three-dimensional general circulation models, global biogeochemical cycles (CO2, methane), critical-area mapping for satellite monitoring of land-cover change, and large-scale remote sensing of surface reflectance. The climate applications are discussed with reference to data needs, and data availability from traditional and remote sensing sources.

An assessment of yield gains under climate change due to genetic modification of pearl millet.

PubMed

Singh, Piara; Boote, K J; Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Gupta, S K; Srinivas, K; Bantilan, M C S

2017-12-01

Developing cultivars with traits that can enhance and sustain productivity under climate change will be an important climate smart adaptation option. The modified CSM-CERES-Pearl millet model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits determining crop maturity duration, potential yield and tolerance to drought and heat in pearl millet cultivars grown at six locations in arid (Hisar, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and semi-arid (Jaipur, Aurangabad and Bijapur) tropical India and two locations in semi-arid tropical West Africa (Sadore in Niamey and Cinzana in Mali). In all the study locations the yields decreased when crop maturity duration was decreased by 10% both in current and future climate conditions; however, 10% increase in crop maturity significantly (p<0.05) increased yields at Aurangabad and Bijapur, but not at other locations. Increasing yield potential traits by 10% increased yields under both the climate situations in India and West Africa. Drought tolerance imparted the lowest yield gain at Aurangabad (6%), the highest at Sadore (30%) and intermediate at the other locations under current climate. Under climate change the contribution of drought tolerance to the yield of cultivars either increased or decreased depending upon changes in rainfall of the locations. Yield benefits of heat tolerance substantially increased under climate change at most locations, having the greatest effects at Bikaner (17%) in India and Sadore (13%) in West Africa. Aurangabad and Bijapur locations had no yield advantage from heat tolerance due to their low temperature regimes. Thus drought and heat tolerance in pearl millet increased yields under climate change in both the arid and semi-arid tropical climates with greater benefit in relatively hotter environments. This study will assists the plant breeders in evaluating new promising plant traits of pearl millet for adapting to climate change at the selected locations and other similar environments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

Role of Science in the Development of U.S. Climate Policy Legislation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staudt, A. C.

2009-12-01

Climate policy in the United States advanced substantially in 2009, including the development of the first comprehensive legislation designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas in prior years Congress actively sought out information on climate change science and impacts to help make the case for policy action, the emphasis recently shifted to economic implications and technological readiness for proposed policies. This shift reflected an acknowledgment among many, but not all, members of Congress that the debate about human-caused climate change is over and that they must focus on crafting policy solutions. The dozens of Congressional hearings held during 2008 and 2009 on climate solutions certainly were necessary for developing legislation. However, a question remains as to whether the legislation, in particular the selection of emissions reduction targets and timetables, was informed by the latest climate science. Of particular concern is to what extent recently published scientific studies indicating many climate changes are on pace with or exceeding the worst-case scenarios considered in the 2007 reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were considered. Furthermore, lacking official hearings on the topic of climate science, skeptical policy makers may have little exposure to the latest scientific findings. Environmental non-governmental organizations play an important intermediary role between the scientific community and policy makers to bridge both of these information gaps. Examples of NGO strategies for bringing the latest science to Congress and of ways that scientists can engage in these efforts will be presented.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

PubMed

Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P

2012-08-01

Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards climate justice: how do the most vulnerable weigh environment-economy trade-offs?

PubMed

Running, Katrina

2015-03-01

The world's poor are especially vulnerable to environmental disasters, including the adverse consequences of climate change. This creates a challenge for climate justice advocates who seek to ensure that those least responsible for causing climate change do not bear unwanted burdens of mitigation. One way to promote climate justice could be to pay particular attention to the environmental policy preferences of citizens from poorer, lower-emitting countries. This paper examines opinions on environment-economy trade-offs and willingness to make personal financial contributions to protect the environment among residents of 42 developed and developing countries using data from the 2005-2008 World Values Survey, the 2010 Climate Risk Index, and World Bank development indicators. Results reveal that individuals in developing countries are less likely to support policies to prioritize environmental protection over economic growth but are more willing to donate personal income for pro-environmental efforts compared to citizens of more developed nations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Teaching the relationship between health and climate change: a systematic scoping review protocol.

PubMed

Osama, Tasnime; Brindley, David; Majeed, Azeem; Murray, Kris A; Shah, Hiral; Toumazos, Mel; Van Velthoven, Michelle; Car, Josip; Wells, Glenn; Meinert, Edward

2018-05-20

The observed and projected impacts of climate change on human health are significant. While climate change has gathered global momentum and is taught frequently, the extent to which the relationships between climate change and health are taught remains uncertain. Education provides an opportunity to create public engagement on these issues, but the extent to which historical implementation of climate health education could be leveraged is not well understood. To address this gap, we propose to conduct a scoping review of all forms of teaching that have been used to illustrate the health effects of climate change between 2005 and 2017, coinciding with a turning point in the public health and climate change agendas following the 2005 Group of 7/8 (G7/8) Summit. Using Arksey/O'Malley's and Levac's methodological framework, MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Education Resource Information Centre, Web of Science, Global Health, Health Management Information Consortium, Georef, Ebsco and PROSPERO will be systematically searched. Predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied by two independent reviewers to determine study eligibility. Studies published in English and after 2005 only will be examined. Following selection of studies, data will be extracted and analysed. No ethical approval is required as exclusively secondary data will be used. Our findings will be communicated to the European Institute of Innovation & Technology Health-Knowledge and Innovation Communities to assist in the development of a FutureLearn Massive Open Online Course on the health effects of climate change. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Extreme climatic events change the dynamics and invasibility of semi-arid annual plant communities.

PubMed

Jiménez, Milagros A; Jaksic, Fabian M; Armesto, Juan J; Gaxiola, Aurora; Meserve, Peter L; Kelt, Douglas A; Gutiérrez, Julio R

2011-12-01

Extreme climatic events represent disturbances that change the availability of resources. We studied their effects on annual plant assemblages in a semi-arid ecosystem in north-central Chile. We analysed 130 years of precipitation data using generalised extreme-value distribution to determine extreme events, and multivariate techniques to analyse 20 years of plant cover data of 34 native and 11 exotic species. Extreme drought resets the dynamics of the system and renders it susceptible to invasion. On the other hand, by favouring native annuals, moderately wet events change species composition and allow the community to be resilient to extreme drought. The probability of extreme drought has doubled over the last 50 years. Therefore, investigations on the interaction of climate change and biological invasions are relevant to determine the potential for future effects on the dynamics of semi-arid annual plant communities. 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

A simple scaling approach to produce climate scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenderink, Geert; Attema, Jisk

2015-08-01

Scenarios of future changes in small scale precipitation extremes for the Netherlands are presented. These scenarios are based on a new approach whereby changes in precipitation extremes are set proportional to the change in water vapor amount near the surface as measured by the 2m dew point temperature. This simple scaling framework allows the integration of information derived from: (i) observations, (ii) a new unprecedentedly large 16 member ensemble of simulations with the regional climate model RACMO2 driven by EC-Earth, and (iii) short term integrations with a non-hydrostatic model Harmonie. Scaling constants are based on subjective weighting (expert judgement) of the three different information sources taking also into account previously published work. In all scenarios local precipitation extremes increase with warming, yet with broad uncertainty ranges expressing incomplete knowledge of how convective clouds and the atmospheric mesoscale circulation will react to climate change.

iSeeChange: Crowdsourced Climate Change Reporting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapkin, J. K.

2012-12-01

Directly engaging local communities about their climate change experiences has never been more important. As weather and climate become more unpredictable, these experiences provide a baseline for community decisions, developing adaptation strategies, and planning for the future. Typically, climate change is documented in a top-down fashion: a scientist has a question, makes observations, and publishes a study; in the best case scenario, a journalist reports on the results; if there's time, a local anecdote is sought to put the results in a familiar context. iSeeChange, a public media project funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, reports local environmental change in reverse and turns community questions and conversations with scientists into reported stories that promote opportunities to learn about climate change's affects on the environment and daily life. iSeeChange engages residents of the North Fork Valley region of western Colorado in a multiplatform conversation with scientists about how they perceive their environment is changing through the course of a year - season to season. By bringing together public radio, a mobile reporting and cellular engagement strategy, and a custom crowdsourcing multimedia platform, iSeeChange provides a central access point to collect observations (texts, photographs, voice recordings, and video), organize conversations and interviews with scientists, and report stories online and on air. In this way, iSeeChange is building a dynamic crowdsourced reservoir of information that can increase awareness of environmental problems and potentially disseminate useful information about climate change and successful adaptation strategies. Ultimately, by understanding the community's information needs in a localized question-driven context, the iSeeChange platform presents opportunities for the science community to better understand the value of information and develop better ways to tailor information for communities to use in the future.t;

42 CFR 483.70 - Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... any changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted... resident; (ii) A clean, comfortable mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv...

The Ecosystem Indicator Partnership shifts from ESIP 1.0 to ESIP 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The Gulf of Maine Council’s EcoSystem Indicator Partnership (ESIP) was formed in 2006 to look at change in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem through the use of indicators. To date, ESIP has published 6 fact sheets on: aquaculture, aquatic Habitats, climate change, coastal develop...

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; O'Connor, Mary I; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J

2016-04-01

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal--A Systematic Synthesis of Literature.

PubMed

Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.

Interactions of Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health.

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

I review literature on the impacts of climate change on air quality and human health, with a focus on articles published from 2013 on ozone and airborne particles. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins of our current knowledge. Climate and weather have strong influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollution concentrations. Emissions of ozone and PM 2.5 precursors increase at higher ambient temperatures. The reactions that form ozone occur faster with greater sunlight and higher temperatures. Weather systems influence the movement and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere through the action of winds, vertical mixing, and precipitation, all of which are likely to alter in a changing climate. Recent studies indicate that, holding anthropogenic air pollution emissions constant, ozone concentrations in populated regions will tend to increase in future climate scenarios. For the USA, the climate impact on ozone is most consistently seen in north-central and north-eastern states, with the potential for many thousands of additional ozone-related deaths. The sensitivity of anthropogenic PM 2.5 to climate is more variable across studies and regions, owing to the varied nature of PM constituents, as well as to less complete characterization of PM reaction chemistry in available atmospheric models. However, PM emitted by wildland fires is likely to become an increasing health risk in many parts of the world as climate continues to change. The complex interactions between climate change and air quality imply that future policies to mitigate these twin challenges will benefit from greater coordination. Assessing the health implications of alternative policy approaches towards climate and pollution mitigation will be a critical area of future work.

When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

2014-01-01

The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits beyond the health sector. Because the nations least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable to its effects, the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not merely technical, but also moral. Copyright © 2014 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

40 CFR 1037.810 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... must publish a notice of the change in the Federal Register and the material must be available to the.../climate/gem.htm. (2) [Reserved] (d) Society of Automotive Engineers, 400 Commonwealth Dr., Warrendale, PA...

Freshwater Biological Traits Database (Traits)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The traits database was compiled for a project on climate change effects on river and stream ecosystems. The traits data, gathered from multiple sources, focused on information published or otherwise well-documented by trustworthy sources.

A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate Engineering Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belter, C. W.; Seidel, D. J.

2013-12-01

The past five years have seen a dramatic increase in the number of media and scientific publications on the topic of climate engineering, or geoengineering, and some scientists are increasingly calling for more research on climate engineering as a possible supplement to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this context, understanding the current state of climate engineering research can help inform policy discussions and guide future research directions. Bibliometric analysis - the quantitative analysis of publications - is particularly applicable to fields with large bodies of literature that are difficult to summarize by traditional review methods. The multidisciplinary nature of the published literature on climate engineering makes it an ideal candidate for bibliometric analysis. Publications on climate engineering are found to be relatively recent (more than half of all articles during 1988-2011 were published since 2008), include a higher than average percentage of non-research articles (30% compared with 8-15% in related scientific disciplines), and be predominately produced by countries located in the Northern Hemisphere and speaking English. The majority of this literature focuses on land-based methods of carbon sequestration, ocean iron fertilization, and solar radiation management and is produced with little collaboration among research groups. This study provides a summary of existing publications on climate engineering, a perspective on the scientific underpinnings of the global dialogue on climate engineering, and a baseline for quantitatively monitoring the development of climate engineering research in the future.

Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.

2011-12-01

The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed and used in collaboration with regional stakeholders. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were be identified. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area, to be published in September 2011 and will make a powerful contribution to the definition and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

An ecohydrological sketch of climate change impacts on water and natural ecosystems for the Netherlands: bridging the gap between science and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, J. P. M.; Runhaar, J.; van Ek, R.; van der Hoek, D. C. J.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Batelaan, O.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Wassen, M. J.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.

2012-11-01

For policy making and spatial planning, information is needed about the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. To provide this information, commonly hydrological and ecological models are used. We give arguments for our assessment that modelling only is insufficient for determining the impacts of climate changes on natural ecosystems at regional scales. Instead, we proposed a combination of hydrological simulations, a literature review and process-knowledge on climate-hydrology-vegetation interactions, to compile a sketch map that indicates climate change effects on a number of ecosystems in the Netherlands. Soon after a first version of our sketch map was published by a Dutch professional journal, copies appeared in policy documents, and also in a commercial and popular atlas of the Netherlands. Moreover, the map led to a question in the Dutch parliament about the sustainability of bog reserves under the future climate. Apparently, there was an urgent need for the information provided by the map. The map shows that climate change will presumably have the largest influence on ecosystems in the Netherlands that depend on precipitation as the major water source, like heathlands, dry grasslands, rain-fed moorland pools and raised bogs. Also highly susceptible are fens in reserves surrounded by deeply drained polders, because such fens depend on the inlet of surface water, of which quality is likely to deteriorate upon climate change. While the map is indicative for directions of change, in view of the uncertainties of our study, no conclusions should be drawn that may have far-reaching consequences, such as giving up certain nature targets that might no longer be feasible in the future climate. Instead, we advise to anticipate the potential threats from climate change by taking a number of adaptation measures that enhance the robustness of nature reserves. To improve climate change projections on hydrology and ecosystems, future research should especially focus on feedbacks of vegetation on the water balance, on processes that directly influence plant performance and on the ecological effects of weather extremes.

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

PubMed

Wang, Ruoyu; Kalin, Latif

2018-02-01

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Non-Cholera Vibrios: The Microbial Barometer of Climate Change.

PubMed

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin; Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2017-01-01

There is a growing interest in the role of climate change in driving the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, such as those caused by bacterial pathogens. One particular group of pathogenic bacteria - vibrios - are a globally important cause of diseases in humans and aquatic animals. These Gram-negative bacteria, including the species Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae, grow in warm, low-salinity waters, and their abundance in the natural environment mirrors ambient environmental temperatures. In a rapidly warming marine environment, there are greater numbers of human infections, and most notably outbreaks linked to extreme weather events such as heatwaves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe. Because the growth of pathogenic vibrios in the natural environment is largely dictated by temperature, we argue that this group of pathogens represents an important and tangible barometer of climate change in marine systems. We provide a number of specific examples of the impacts of climate change on this group of bacteria and their associated diseases, and discuss advanced strategies to improve our understanding of these emerging waterborne diseases through the integration of microbiological, genomic, epidemiological, climatic, and ocean sciences. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern

Building climate adaptation capabilities through technology and community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, D.; McWhirter, J.; Intsiful, J. D.; Cozzini, S.

2011-12-01

To effectively plan for adaptation to changes in climate, decision makers require infrastructure and tools that will provide them with timely access to current and future climate information. For example, climate scientists and operational forecasters need to access global and regional model projections and current climate information that they can use to prepare monitoring products and reports and then publish these for the decision makers. Through the UNDP African Adaption Programme, an infrastructure is being built across Africa that will provide multi-tiered access to such information. Web accessible servers running RAMADDA, an open source content management system for geoscience information, will provide access to the information at many levels: from the raw and processed climate model output to real-time climate conditions and predictions to documents and presentation for government officials. Output from regional climate models (e.g. RegCM4) and downscaled global climate models will be accessible through RAMADDA. The Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) is being used by scientists to create visualizations that assist the understanding of climate processes and projections, using the data on these as well as external servers. Since RAMADDA is more than a data server, it is also being used as a publishing platform for the generated material that will be available and searchable by the decision makers. Users can wade through the enormous volumes of information and extract subsets for their region or project of interest. Participants from 20 countries attended workshops at ICTP during 2011. They received training on setting up and installing the servers and necessary software and are now working on deploying the systems in their respective countries. This is the first time an integrated and comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation has been widely applied in Africa. It is expected that this infrastructure will enhance North-South collaboration and improve the delivery of technical support and services. This improved infrastructure will enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust products and services in a timely manner.

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America: Revisions for all taxa from the United States and Canada and new taxa from the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; McFadden, Andrew K.

2015-01-01

This volume of the atlas provides numerous changes, updates, and enhancements from previous volumes. Its geographic coverage is now restricted to Canada and the continental United States, and the source and time period of the climatic data have changed. New variables were added, including monthly values for temperature and precipitation, and measures of interannual variability. The distribution maps for all previously published species were redigitized, some distribution maps were revised, and 148 new species were added from the arid and semiarid western United States. The graphical displays were expanded to illustrate the new climatic variables, and the data tables were modified to provide more detail on the population distributions of plant taxa relative to climatic variables.

Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

PubMed

Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

2017-12-05

We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

2013-03-01

The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

PubMed

Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Gillingham, Phillipa K; Britton, J Robert

2016-09-01

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate and the Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manley, Jim

2017-04-01

Climate and the Carbon Cycle EOS3a Science in tomorrow's classroom Students, like too much of the American public, are largely unaware or apathetic to the changes in world climate and the impact that these changes have for life on Earth. A study conducted by Michigan State University and published in 2011 by Science Daily titled 'What carbon cycle? College students lack scientific literacy, study finds'. This study relates how 'most college students in the United States do not grasp the scientific basis of the carbon cycle - an essential skill in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change.' The study authors call for a new approach to teaching about climate. What if teachers better understood vital components of Earth's climate system and were able to impart his understanding to their students? What if students based their responses to the information taught not on emotion, but on a deeper understanding of the forces driving climate change, their analysis of the scientific evidence and in the context of earth system science? As a Middle School science teacher, I have been given the opportunity to use a new curriculum within TERC's EarthLabs collection, Climate and the Carbon Cycle, to awaken those brains and assist my students in making personal lifestyle choices based on what they had learned. In addition, with support from TERC and The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics I joined others to begin training other teachers on how to implement this curriculum in their classrooms to expose their students to our changing climate. Through my poster, I will give you (1) a glimpse into the challenges faced by today's science teachers in communicating the complicated, but ever-deepening understanding of the linkages between natural and human-driven factors on climate; (2) introduce you to a new module in the EarthLabs curriculum designed to expose teachers and students to global scientific climate data and instrumentation; and (3) illustrate how student worldviews are changed though exposure to the latest in scientific discovery and understanding.

Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, Benjamin D.

2011-11-01

This chapter describes progress in the field of "detection and attribution" (D&A) research, which seeks to identify certain "fingerprints," or patterns of climate change, and to correlate them with possible human factors influencing the climate. Such studies contributed to the scientific confidence with which the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was able to assert that anthropogenic greenhouse gases had had a discernible effect on global warming since the mid-20th century. D&A methods have greatly improved to incorporate many more climate variables and to include increasingly finer variations in space and time. The chapter also describes the intercomparison of global climate models and the comprehensive data base of model simulations now available to anyone free of charge. The following is the testimony given by Benjamin Santer to the U.S. House of Representative Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, on November 17, 2010. It is adapted from a chapter that Tom Wigley and Benjamin Santer published in a book edited by the late Stephen Schneider [1] and from previous testimony given by Dr. Santer to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.[2

Climate change in the Pacific - is it real or not?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy

2013-04-01

In this presentation, novel approaches and new ideas for students and young researchers to appreciate the importance of climate science are discussed. These approaches have been applied through conducting a number of training workshops in the Pacific Island Countries and teaching a course on climate change international law and climate change science at the University of the South Pacific (USP) - the first course on this type in the Pacific. Particular focus of this presentation is on broadening students' experience with application of web-based information tools for analysis of climatic extremes and natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Over the past few years, significant efforts of Australian climate scientists have been dedicated to improving understanding of climate in the Pacific through the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region). The first comprehensive scientific report about the Pacific climate has been published in 2011, as an outcome of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). A range of web-based information tools such as the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal, the Pacific Climate Change Data Portal and the Pacific Seasonal Climate Prediction Portal has been also developed through the PCCSP and the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program. Currently, further advancement in seasonal climate prediction science and developing enhanced software tools for the Pacific is undertaken through the Theme 1 of the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program. This new scientific knowledge needs to be transferred to students to provide them with true information about climate change and its impact on the Pacific Island Countries. Teachers and educators need their knowledge-base regularly updated and tools that will help their students critically evaluate information transmitted via the mass media. This is particularly important when educators present to students cutting edge science knowledge on climate change. Climate change skeptics through mass media attack climate scientists and dismiss their findings about magnitude of climate change. A novel approach implemented in our training workshops and teaching courses gives students practical hands on experience in examining climate data using the developed web-based information tools. Using the tools, students can examine climate of the Pacific Island Countries, derive trends in climate variables such as temperature and rainfall and make their own conclusions. An open forum "Is climate change real or not?" has also been included as an integral part of these workshops and teaching, giving an opportunity for students to present their findings. They have also been asked to provide examples of observed change in the environment in their countries which may be related to climate change. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive severe weather events in the Pacific which regularly affect countries in the region. Understanding importance of updating knowledge about cyclones, extensive training in using the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) has also been provided. Using this sophisticated web-based tool, students can learn about occurrences of cyclones in waters around their countries and over the whole Pacific. Positive feedback from university students and participants of training workshops has been obtained and this approach may be recommended for educators to include in their courses. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PASAP, PCCSP and PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.

PubMed

Lewis, Owen T

2006-01-29

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

Civil society organizations and adaptation to the health effects of climate change in Canada.

PubMed

Poutiainen, C; Berrang-Ford, L; Ford, J; Heymann, J

2013-05-01

Adaptation will be necessary to cope with the impacts of climate change on the health of Canadians. Civil society organizations (CSOs) have an important role in health adaptation, but it is unknown what actions they are undertaking. To identify and examine what adaptations are being developed by CSOs to adapt to the health effects of climate change based on a systematic review of the activities of 190 organizations and 1196 reported adaptation actions. There were six key findings: (1) health adaptation actions are predominantly led by environmental CSOs; (2) most actions are occurring at national and regional levels; (3) food and/or water contamination and air quality are dominant climate change stimuli for action; (4) responses predominantly reflect awareness and research activities, with limited evidence of substantive intervention; (5) consideration of vulnerable groups is limited; and (6) climate change is usually considered alongside other factors, if at all. The results indicate a deficit in terms of what needs to be done for health adaptation and what is being done; part of a broader adaptation deficit in Canada. Coordinated adaptation planning at federal and provincial level is needed, involving collaboration between CSOs and public health bodies. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change.

PubMed

Kremer, Antoine; Ronce, Ophélie; Robledo-Arnuncio, Juan J; Guillaume, Frédéric; Bohrer, Gil; Nathan, Ran; Bridle, Jon R; Gomulkiewicz, Richard; Klein, Etienne K; Ritland, Kermit; Kuparinen, Anna; Gerber, Sophie; Schueler, Silvio

2012-04-01

Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, A.G.; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, V.B.; Goropashnaya, A.V.; Talbot, S.L.; Cook, J.A.

2011-01-01

Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis. We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew (Sorex asper), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

PubMed

Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

2018-05-01

Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

PubMed

Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

2017-11-14

Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change.

PubMed

Mumby, Peter J; Sanchirico, James N; Broad, Kenneth; Beck, Michael W; Tyedmers, Peter; Morikawa, Megan; Okey, Thomas A; Crowder, Larry B; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kelso, Denny; Kleypas, Joanie A; Munch, Stephan B; Glynn, Polita; Matthews, Kathryn; Lubchenco, Jane

2017-11-01

Climate change and ocean acidification are altering marine ecosystems and, from a human perspective, creating both winners and losers. Human responses to these changes are complex, but may result in reduced government investments in regulation, resource management, monitoring and enforcement. Moreover, a lack of peoples' experience of climate change may drive some towards attributing the symptoms of climate change to more familiar causes such as management failure. Taken together, we anticipate that management could become weaker and less effective as climate change continues. Using diverse case studies, including the decline of coral reefs, coastal defences from flooding, shifting fish stocks and the emergence of new shipping opportunities in the Arctic, we argue that human interests are better served by increased investments in resource management. But greater government investment in management does not simply mean more of "business-as-usual." Management needs to become more flexible, better at anticipating and responding to surprise, and able to facilitate change where it is desirable. A range of technological, economic, communication and governance solutions exists to help transform management. While not all have been tested, judicious application of the most appropriate solutions should help humanity adapt to novel circumstances and seek opportunity where possible. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-11-01

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

PubMed

Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

2017-09-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling vector-borne disease risk in migratory animals under climate change.

PubMed

Hall, Richard J; Brown, Leone M; Altizer, Sonia

2016-08-01

Recent theory suggests that animals that migrate to breed at higher latitudes may benefit from reduced pressure from natural enemies, including pathogens ("migratory escape"), and that migration itself weeds out infected individuals and lowers infection prevalence ("migratory culling"). The distribution and activity period of arthropod disease vectors in temperate regions is expected to respond rapidly to climate change, which could reduce the potential for migratory escape. However, climate change could have the opposite effect of reducing transmission if differential responses in the phenology and distribution of migrants and disease vectors reduce their overlap in space and time. Here we outline a simple modeling framework for exploring the influence of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics in a migratory host. We investigate two scenarios under which pathogen transmission dynamics might be mediated by climate change: (1) vectors respond more rapidly than migrants to advancing phenology at temperate breeding sites, causing peak susceptible host density and vector emergence to diverge ("migratory mismatch") and (2) reduced migratory propensity allows increased nonbreeding survival of infected hosts and larger breeding-site epidemics (loss of migratory culling, here referred to as "sedentary amplification"). Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of climate-induced changes to migratory behavior and vector activity to predict pathogen prevalence and its impacts on migratory animals. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes.

PubMed

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-13

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-01

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

PubMed

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Noss, Reed

2017-01-01

Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism-stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism-stability linkage for conservation? Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

42 CFR 483.470 - Condition of participation: Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., comfortable, mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv) Functional furniture... changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted LSC does not...

42 CFR 483.70 - Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted edition of the... resident; (ii) A clean, comfortable mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv...

42 CFR 483.70 - Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted edition of the... resident; (ii) A clean, comfortable mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv...

42 CFR 483.70 - Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted edition of the... resident; (ii) A clean, comfortable mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv...

42 CFR 483.70 - Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted edition of the... resident; (ii) A clean, comfortable mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv...

42 CFR 483.470 - Condition of participation: Physical environment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., comfortable, mattress; (iii) Bedding appropriate to the weather and climate; and (iv) Functional furniture... changes in this edition of the Code are incorporated by reference, CMS will publish notice in the Federal Register to announce the changes. (ii) Chapter 19.3.6.3.2, exception number 2 of the adopted LSC does not...

Climate: Into the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burroughs, William

2003-08-01

Toward the end of the twentieth century, it became evident to professionals working within the meterological arena that the world's climate system was showing signs of change that could not be adequately explained in terms of natural variation. Since that time there has been an increasing recognition that the climate system is changing as a result of human industries and lifestyles, and that the outcomes may prove catastrophic to the world's escalating population. Compiled by an international team formed under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Climate: Into the 21st Century features an unrivalled collection of essays by the world's leading meteorological experts. These fully integrated contributions provide a perspective of the global climate system across the twentieth century, and describe some of the most arresting and extreme climatic events and their effects that have occurred during that time. In addition, the book traces the development of our capabilities to observe and monitor the climate system, and outlines our understanding of the predictability of climate on time-scales of months and longer. It concludes with a summary of the prospects for applying the twentieth century climate experience in order to benefit society in the twenty-first century. Lavishly illustrated in color, Climate is an accessible acccount of the challenges that climate poses at the start of the twenty-first century. Filled with fascinating facts and diagrams, it is written for a wide audience and will captivate the general reader interested in climate issues, and will be a valuable teaching resource. William Burroughs is a successful science author of books on climate, including Weather (Time Life, 2000), and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach (2001), Does the Weather Really Matter? (1997) and The Climate Revealed (1999), all published by Cambridge University Press.

Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.; Verma, M.

2011-12-01

This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of global climate model predictions for temperature and precipitation for 2050. The implications of these realizations for crop yields around the globe are estimated using the recently published statistical crop yield functions provided by Lobell, Schlenker and Costa-Roberts (2011). By comparing these yields to those predicted under current climate, we obtain the likely change in crop yields owing to climate change. The economic uncertainty in our analysis relates to the response of the global economic system to these biophysical shocks. We use a modified version of the GTAP model to elicit the impact of the biophysical shocks on global patterns of production, consumption, trade and poverty. Uncertainty in these responses is reflected in the econometrically estimated parameters governing the responsiveness of international trade, consumption, production (and hence the intensive margin of supply response), and factor supplies (which govern the extensive margin of supply response). We sample from the distributions of these parameters as specified by Hertel et al. (2007) and Keeney and Hertel (2009). We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, the responses of economic variables, including output and exports can be far more robust (Table 1). This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative prices, and relative prices depend on productivity changes relative to other crops in a given region, or relative to similar crops in other parts of the world. We also find that uncertainty in poverty impacts of climate change appears to be almost entirely driven by biophysical uncertainty.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Progress Reports of the relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2016, 15, 141-147). The present Progress Report for 2016 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. The report is also published in (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, DOI: 10.1039/c7pp90001e). The more detailed Quadrennial Assessment will be made available in 2018. The Parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three Panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects on increased UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Mangroves Response to Climate Change: A Review of Recent Findings on Mangrove Extension and Distribution.

PubMed

Godoy, Mario D P; de Lacerda, Luiz D

2015-01-01

Mangroves function as a natural coastline protection for erosion and inundation, providing important environmental services. Due to their geographical distribution at the continent-ocean interface, the mangrove habitat may suffer heavy impacts from global climate change, maximized by local human activities occurring in a given coastal region. This review analyzed the literature published over the last 25 years, on the documented response of mangroves to environmental change caused by global climate change, taking into consideration 104 case studies and predictive modeling, worldwide. Most studies appeared after the year 2000, as a response to the 1997 IPCC report. Although many reports showed that the world's mangrove area is decreasing due to direct anthropogenic pressure, several others, however, showed that in a variety of habitats mangroves are expanding as a response to global climate change. Worldwide, pole ward migration is extending the latitudinal limits of mangroves due to warmer winters and decreasing the frequency of extreme low temperatures, whereas in low-lying coastal plains, mangroves are migrating landward due to sea level rise, as demonstrated for the NE Brazilian coast. Taking into consideration climate change alone, mangroves in most areas will display a positive response. In some areas however, such as low-lying oceanic islands, such as in the Pacific and the Caribbean, and constrained coastlines, such as the SE Brazilian coast, mangroves will most probably not survive.

Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change.

PubMed

Burggren, Warren

2018-05-10

The slow, inexorable rise in annual average global temperatures and acidification of the oceans are often advanced as consequences of global change. However, many environmental changes, especially those involving weather (as opposed to climate), are often stochastic, variable and extreme, particularly in temperate terrestrial or freshwater habitats. Moreover, few studies of animal and plant phenotypic plasticity employ realistic (i.e. short-term, stochastic) environmental change in their protocols. Here, I posit that the frequently abrupt environmental changes (days, weeks, months) accompanying much longer-term general climate change (e.g. global warming over decades or centuries) require consideration of the true nature of environmental change (as opposed to statistical means) coupled with an expansion of focus to consider developmental phenotypic plasticity. Such plasticity can be in multiple forms - obligatory/facultative, beneficial/deleterious - depending upon the degree and rate of environmental variability at specific points in organismal development. Essentially, adult phenotypic plasticity, as important as it is, will be irrelevant if developing offspring lack sufficient plasticity to create modified phenotypes necessary for survival. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

40 CFR 1037.810 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... must publish a notice of the change in the Federal Register and the material must be available to the... software is also available for download at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/gem.htm. (2) [Reserved] (d...

Plant communities on infertile soils are less sensitive to climate change.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen; Fernandez-Going, Barbara; Eskelinen, Anu; Copeland, Stella

2015-11-01

Much evidence suggests that plant communities on infertile soils are relatively insensitive to increased water deficit caused by increasing temperature and/or decreasing precipitation. However, a multi-decadal study of community change in the western USA does not support this conclusion. This paper tests explanations related to macroclimatic differences, overstorey effects on microclimate, variation in soil texture and plant functional traits. A re-analysis was undertaken of the changes in the multi-decadal study, which concerned forest understorey communities on infertile (serpentine) and fertile soils in an aridifying climate (southern Oregan) from 1949-1951 to 2007-2008. Macroclimatic variables, overstorey cover and soil texture were used as new covariates. As an alternative measure of climate-related change, the community mean value of specific leaf area was used, a functional trait measuring drought tolerance. We investigated whether these revised analyses supported the prediction of lesser sensitivity to climate change in understorey communities on infertile serpentine soils. Overstorey cover, but not macroclimate or soil texture, was a significant covariate of community change over time. It strongly buffered understorey temperatures, was correlated with less change and averaged >50 % lower on serpentine soils, thereby counteracting the lower climate sensitivity of understorey herbs on these soils. Community mean specific leaf area showed the predicted pattern of less change over time in serpentine than non-serpentine communities. Based on the current balance of evidence, plant communities on infertile serpentine soils are less sensitive to changes in the climatic water balance than communities on more fertile soils. However, this advantage may in some cases be lessened by their sparser overstorey cover. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[The climate debate: the facts].

PubMed

van den Broeke, Michiel R

2009-01-01

The first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) appeared almost 20 years ago. Environmental contamination has a negative effect on the environment in which we live. However, the public at large is confused about the ins and outs of climate change. Managers, politicians, various kinds of advisors, scientists, so-called experts, sceptics and journalists have all taken it upon themselves to lead the debate. Whose task is it to ensure a sound discussion? Surely it is the IPCC's task. However, most politicians and many journalists, and even many scientists, do not take the trouble to read the entire IPCC report or parts of it. As a consequence, much nonsense is published and broadcast. An effective procedure to deal with the climate problem starts with a fair discussion of the scientific evidence. My advice is: just read the free IPCC report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ and click on 'WG I The Physical Science Basis'.

Asian Urban Environment and Climate Change: Preface.

PubMed

Hunt, Julian; Wu, Jianping

2017-09-01

The Asian Network on Climate Science and Technology (www.ancst.org), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, held a conference on environmental and climate science, air pollution, urban planning and transportation in July 2015, with over 40 Asian experts participating and presentation. This was followed by a meeting with local government and community experts on the practical conclusions of the conference. Of the papers presented at the conference a selection are included in this special issue of Journal of Environmental Science, which also reflects the conclusions of the Paris Climate meeting in Dec 2015, when the major nations of the world agreed about the compelling need to reduce the upward trend of adverse impacts associated with global climate change. Now is the time for urban areas to work out the serious consequences for their populations, but also how they should work together to take action to reduce global warming to benefit their own communities and also the whole planet! Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ledley, Tamara S.; Sundquist, Eric; Schwartz, Stephen; Hall, Dorothy K.; Fellows, Jack; Killeen, Timothy

1999-01-01

The American Geophysical Union (AGU), as a scientific organization devoted to research on the Earth and space sciences, provides current scientific information to the public on issues pertinent to geophysics. The Council of the AGU approved a position statement on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases in December 1998. The statement, together with a short summary of the procedures that were followed in its preparation, review, and adoption were published in the February 2, 1999 issue of Eos ([AGU, 1999]. The present article reviews scientific understanding of this issue as presented in peer-reviewed publications that serves as the underlying basis of the position statement.

The Climate-G testbed: towards a large scale data sharing environment for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloisio, G.; Fiore, S.; Denvil, S.; Petitdidier, M.; Fox, P.; Schwichtenberg, H.; Blower, J.; Barbera, R.

2009-04-01

The Climate-G testbed provides an experimental large scale data environment for climate change addressing challenging data and metadata management issues. The main scope of Climate-G is to allow scientists to carry out geographical and cross-institutional climate data discovery, access, visualization and sharing. Climate-G is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving both climate and computer scientists and it currently involves several partners such as: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Fraunhofer Institut für Algorithmen und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen (SCAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Reading, University of Catania and University of Salento. To perform distributed metadata search and discovery, we adopted a CMCC metadata solution (which provides a high level of scalability, transparency, fault tolerance and autonomy) leveraging both on P2P and grid technologies (GRelC Data Access and Integration Service). Moreover, data are available through OPeNDAP/THREDDS services, Live Access Server as well as the OGC compliant Web Map Service and they can be downloaded, visualized, accessed into the proposed environment through the Climate-G Data Distribution Centre (DDC), the web gateway to the Climate-G digital library. The DDC is a data-grid portal allowing users to easily, securely and transparently perform search/discovery, metadata management, data access, data visualization, etc. Godiva2 (integrated into the DDC) displays 2D maps (and animations) and also exports maps for display on the Google Earth virtual globe. Presently, Climate-G publishes (through the DDC) about 2TB of data related to the ENSEMBLES project (also including distributed replicas of data) as well as to the IPCC AR4. The main results of the proposed work are: wide data access/sharing environment for climate change; P2P/grid metadata approach; production-level Climate-G DDC; high quality tools for data visualization; metadata search/discovery across several countries/institutions; open environment for climate change data sharing.

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative in 2012: An Update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Lawford, R. G.; Kattsov, V.

2012-12-01

Seven years ago NEESPI was launched with the release of its Science Plan (http://neespi.org). Gradually, the Initiative was joined by numerous international projects launched in EU, Russia, the United States, Canada, Japan, and China. Throughout its duration, NEESPI served and is serving as an umbrella for more than 150 individual international research projects. Currently, the Initiative is in full swing. The total number of the ongoing NEESPI projects (as on July 2012) is 50 and has changed but slightly compared to its peak (87 in 2008). The past one and half years (2011 through mid-2012) were extremely productive in the NEESPI outreach. We organized five Open Science Sessions at the three major Geoscience Unions/Assembly Meetings (AGU, EGU, and JpGU) and four International NEESPI Workshops. The programs of two of these Workshops (in Tomsk and Irkutsk, Russia) included Summer Schools for early career scientists. More than 230 peer-reviewed papers, books, and/or book chapters were published or are in press (this list was still incomplete at the time of preparation of this abstract). In particular, a suite of 24 peer-reviewed NEESPI articles was published in the Forth Special NEESPI Issue of "Environmental Research Letters" (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/focus/NEESPI3). Northern Eurasia is a large study domain. Therefore, it was decided to describe the latest findings related to its environmental changes in several regional monographs in English. Three books on Environmental Changes in the NEESPI domain were published by Springer Publishing. House (Gutman and Reissell, eds., 2011; Groisman and Gutman eds. 2013) and "Naukova Dumka" of Ukraine (Groisman and Lyalko, eds. 2012) being devoted to the high latitudes of Eurasia, to Siberia, and to Eastern Europe respectively. One more book by J. Chen et al. (eds.) Dryland East Asia: Land Dynamics amid Social and Climate Change has been prepared by the members of the NEESPI team for Springer and will be published in the first half of 2013. In this presentation, the description of the NEESPI Program will be complemented with an overview of the results presented in three latest our books "Earth System Change over Eastern Europe", "Regional Environmental Changes in Siberia and Their Global Consequences", and "Dryland East Asia: Land Dynamics amid Social and Climate Change". Cited references: Gutman, G. and A. Reissell (eds.) 2011: Arctic land cover and land use in a changing climate: Focus on Eurasia. VI, Springer, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 306 pp. Groisman, P.Ya. and V.I. Lyalko (eds.), 2012: Earth Systems Change over Eastern Europe. Naukova Dumka, Kiev, The Ukraine, 487 pp. Groisman and Gutman (eds), 2013: Environmental Changes in Siberia: Regional Changes and their Global Consequences. Springer, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 357 pp.

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny

2007-04-30

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change,more » - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.« less

Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests.

PubMed

Bertrand, Romain; Lenoir, Jonathan; Piedallu, Christian; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; de Ruffray, Patrice; Vidal, Claude; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Gégout, Jean-Claude

2011-10-19

Climate change is driving latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in species distribution worldwide, leading to novel species assemblages. Lags between these biotic responses and contemporary climate changes have been reported for plants and animals. Theoretically, the magnitude of these lags should be greatest in lowland areas, where the velocity of climate change is expected to be much greater than that in highland areas. We compared temperature trends to temperatures reconstructed from plant assemblages (observed in 76,634 surveys) over a 44-year period in France (1965-2008). Here we report that forest plant communities had responded to 0.54 °C of the effective increase of 1.07 °C in highland areas (500-2,600 m above sea level), while they had responded to only 0.02 °C of the 1.11 °C warming trend in lowland areas. There was a larger temperature lag (by 3.1 times) between the climate and plant community composition in lowland forests than in highland forests. The explanation of such disparity lies in the following properties of lowland, as compared to highland, forests: the higher proportion of species with greater ability for local persistence as the climate warms, the reduced opportunity for short-distance escapes, and the greater habitat fragmentation. Although mountains are currently considered to be among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change (owing to mountaintop extinction), the current inertia of plant communities in lowland forests should also be noted, as it could lead to lowland biotic attrition. ©2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Antarctica: A Keystone in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Robin E.; Luyendyk, Bruce P.; Wilson, Terry J.

2008-01-01

10th International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences; Santa Barbara, California, 26 August to 1 September 2007; The 10th International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences was convened at the University of California, Santa Barbara, where 350 researchers presented talks and posters on topics including climate change, biotic evolution, magmatic processes, surface processes, tectonics, geodynamics, and the cryosphere. The symposium resulted in 335 peer-reviewed papers, 225 of which are published online (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1047/). A proceedings book will also be published by the National Academies Press.

A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.

PubMed

Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E; Semenza, Jan C

2013-12-01

Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report

PubMed Central

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

PubMed

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

SWIFT Obervations in the Sea State DRI

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-02-28

arctic-autumn , 98 (2017). [published, refereed] • Ardhuin et al, Measuring ocean waves in sea ice using SAR imagery: A quasi -deterministic approach...Graber, H. Shen, J. Gemmrich, S. Lehner, B. Holt, and T. Williams, Science and Experiment Plan: Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the...live along the Arctic coastline and experience climate change firsthand. Our results will be published in a special issue (http

Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems.

PubMed

King, Karen J; Cary, Geoffrey J; Bradstock, Ross A; Marsden-Smedley, Jonathan B

2013-04-01

This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south-west Tasmania (mesic); and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for biodiversity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

PubMed

Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

2018-04-15

Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The potential effects of climate change on the native vascular flora of North America. A preliminary climate envelopes analysis: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morse, L.E.; Kutner, L.S.; Maddox, G.D.

1993-11-01

To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areasmore » outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.« less

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of projected climate change on water supply for all water sectors including the environment, and the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal regions. Questions on the potential impacts of climate change including sea level rise need to be investigated along with the uncertainties of projections to provide critical information for decision making on the planned infrastructure and operational changes in south Florida.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

PubMed

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas.

PubMed

Coleman, Melinda A; Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; Roughan, Moninya; Feng, Ming; van Sebille, Erik; Kelaher, Brendan P

2017-09-01

Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self-seeding within higher-latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low-latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions; adaptive approach that provides inherent flexibility and reversibility and avoids closing off options; importance of active learning. References: Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012). Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. IWA Publishing, 252 p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feynman, J.

2009-12-01

During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

The impact of climate change and aeroallergens on children's health.

PubMed

Schmier, Jordana K; Ebi, Kristie L

2009-01-01

There are unequivocal data that climate change is occurring and that there are resulting health impacts. Climate change can affect the prevalence and severity of allergic and respiratory disorders through projected increases in the temporal and spatial distribution and concentrations of some aeroallergens. This study was designed to critique and summarize existing knowledge on asthma-related impacts of aeroallergen exposure on children in the United States and to provide suggestions about reducing the negative impacts of climate change through increasing education, adapting current management strategies, and modifying distribution channels. A review and synthesis of published literature was performed. Five studies identified evaluated the relationship between aeroallergens and particular symptoms and six evaluated use of the emergency department and hospital care for asthma. Little is known about the relationship between aeroallergens and particular asthma symptoms. However, overall, there appears to be evidence that weed pollen is significantly associated with asthma exacerbations and use of emergency and hospital services. Activities that can help mitigate the impact of additional climate change-induced respiratory disease include continued research, physician and patient education, optimizing production and distribution, and actively considering the budgetary impact of increased prevalence and severity of respiratory disease. Although more research is needed on aeroallergens and respiratory disease, existing studies suggest that it will be essential to consider the health impacts on children. Strategies to reduce the impacts should be developed and implemented now.

Contrasting model complexity under a changing climate in a headwaters catchment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, L.; Williams, K. H.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Alpine, snowmelt-dominated catchments are the source of water for more than 1/6th of the world's population. These catchments are topographically complex, leading to steep weather gradients and nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Recent evidence suggests that alpine systems are more sensitive to climate warming, but these regions are vastly simplified in climate models and operational water management tools due to computational limitations. Simultaneously, point-scale observations are often extrapolated to larger regions where feedbacks can both exacerbate or mitigate locally observed changes. It is critical to determine whether projected climate impacts are robust to different methodologies, including model complexity. Using high performance computing and an integrated model of a representative headwater catchment we determined the hydrologic response from 30 projected climate changes to precipitation, temperature and vegetation for the Rocky Mountains. Simulations were run with 100m and 1km resolution, and with and without lateral subsurface flow in order to vary model complexity. We found that model complexity alters nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Higher-resolution models predicted larger changes per degree of temperature increase than lower resolution models, suggesting that reductions to snowpack, surface water, and groundwater due to warming may be underestimated in simple models. Increases in temperature were found to have a larger impact on water fluxes and stores than changes in precipitation, corroborating previous research showing that mountain systems are significantly more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation changes and that increases in winter precipitation are unlikely to compensate for increased evapotranspiration in a higher energy environment. These numerical experiments help to (1) bracket the range of uncertainty in published literature of climate change impacts on headwater hydrology; (2) characterize the role of precipitation and temperature changes on water supply for snowmelt-dominated downstream basins; and (3) identify which climate impacts depend on the scale of simulation.

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

PubMed

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect human rights, promote social justice, and avoid creating new problems or exacerbating existing problems for vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring the Dynamics of Climate Change Communication in Mass Media and Social Networks with Computer-Assisted Content Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2012-12-01

To date, multiple authors have examined media representations of and public attitudes towards climate change, as well as how these representations and attitudes differ from scientific knowledge on the issue of climate change. Content analysis of newspaper publications, TV news, and, recently, Internet blogs has allowed for identification of major discussion themes within the climate change domain (e.g., newspaper trends, comparison of climate change discourse in different countries, contrasting liberal vs. conservative press). The majority of these studies, however, have processed texts manually, limiting textual population size, restricting the analysis to a relatively small number of themes, and using time-expensive coding procedures. The use of computer-assisted text analysis (CATA) software is important because the difficulties with manual processing become more severe with an increased volume of data. We developed a CATA approach that allows a large body of text materials to be surveyed in a quantifiable, objective, transparent, and time-efficient manner. While staying within the quantitative tradition of content analysis, the approach allows for an interpretation of the public discourse closer to one of more qualitatively oriented methods. The methodology used in this study contains several steps: (1) sample selection; (2) data preparation for computer processing and obtaining a matrix of keyword frequencies; (3) identification of themes in the texts using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA); (4) combining identified themes into higher order themes using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA); (5) interpretation of obtained public discourse themes using factor scores; and (6) tracking the development of the main themes of the climate change discourse through time. In the report, we concentrate on two examples of CATA applied to study public perception of climate change. First example is an analysis of temporal change in public discourse on climate change. Applying CATA to a conservatively selected sample of 4043 articles published on climate change in The New York Times from 1995, we found a considerable change in major topics of discussion. One of the most significant tendencies is a gradual decline in the volume of material within the "Science" topic and an expansion of themes classified under the "Politics" topic. The second example is the analysis of public ability to detect climate change, in which we used a database of over 1 million Twitter messages on climate change that we have collected. We compared the intensity of tweeting on climate change with the "common-sense climate index" by Hansen et al (1999) and found that the weather extremes experienced at a certain location is immediately reflected in the number of tweets discussing climate change originating from that location. Although the CATA approach certainly has its limitations, we are convinced that it has a number of advantages over manual processing: it is able to analyze large textual bodies, is more time efficient, has a higher level of detail, enhances the richness of interpretation, and is able to reliably track discourse development through time.

Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal – A Systematic Synthesis of Literature

PubMed Central

Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Background Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. Methodology A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Conclusion Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant. PMID:26086887

An expert assessment on climate change and health - with a European focus on lungs and allergies.

PubMed

Forsberg, Bertil; Bråbäck, Lennart; Keune, Hans; Kobernus, Mike; Krayer von Krauss, Martin; Yang, Aileen; Bartonova, Alena

2012-06-28

For almost 20 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the potential health risks associated with climate change; with increasingly convincing evidence that climate change presents existing impacts on human health. In industrialized countries climate change may further affect public health and in particular respiratory health, through existing health stressors, including, anticipated increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves; increased frequency of cardiopulmonary events due to higher concentrations of air pollutants; and altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectors. Additionally exposure to moulds and contaminants from water damaged buildings may increase. We undertook an expert elicitation amongst European researchers engaged in environmental medicine or respiratory health. All experts were actively publishing researchers on lung disease and air pollution, climate and health or a closely related research. We conducted an online questionnaire on proposed causal diagrams and determined levels of confidence that climate change will have an impact on a series of stressors. In a workshop following the online questionnaire, half of the experts further discussed the results and reasons for differences in assessments of the state of knowledge on exposures and health effects. Out of 16 experts, 100% expressed high to very high confidence that climate change would increase the frequency of heat waves. At least half expressed high or very high confidence that climate change would increase levels of pollen (50%), particulate matter (PM2.5) (55%), and ozone (70%). While clarity is needed around the impacts of increased exposures to health impacts of some stressors, including ozone and particulate matter levels, it was noted that definitive knowledge is not a prerequisite for policy action. Information to the public, preventive measures, monitoring and warning systems were among the most commonly mentioned preventative actions. This group of experts identifies clear health risks associated with climate change, and express opinions about these risks even while they do not necessarily regard themselves as covering all areas of expertise. Since some changes in exposure have already been observed, the consensus is that there is already a scientific basis for preventative action, and that the associated adaptation and mitigation policies should also be evidence based.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

2017-11-01

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Wu, Qiong; Xia, Xinghui; Mou, Xinli; Zhu, Baotong; Zhao, Pujun; Dong, Haiyang

2014-12-01

Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem. However, only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes. In this research, response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing, China, to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied. Fluorides, volatile phenols, arsenic, selenium, and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012. Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis, cluster analysis, and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine duration. Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation, which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution. A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation, and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature. Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations, which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils. Moreover, the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels. On average, temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%, 15%, and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols, arsenic, and fluorides, respectively. Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades. This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate-driven longitudinal trends in pasture-borne helminth infections of dairy cattle.

PubMed

Charlier, Johannes; Ghebretinsae, Aklilu H; Levecke, Bruno; Ducheyne, Els; Claerebout, Edwin; Vercruysse, Jozef

2016-12-01

Helminth parasites of grazing ruminants are highly prevalent globally and impact negatively on animal productivity and food security. There is a growing concern that climate change increases helminth disease frequency and intensity. In Europe, these concerns stem from case reports and theoretical life cycle models assessing the effects of climate change scenarios on helminth epidemiology. We believe this study is the first to investigate climate-driven trends in helminth infections of cattle on a cohort of randomly selected farms. One thousand, six hundred and eighty dairy farms were monitored over an 8year period for the two major helminth infections in temperate climate regions and climate-driven trends were investigated by multivariable linear mixed models. The general levels of exposure to Fasciola hepatica decreased over the study period while those to Ostertagia ostertagi increased, and this could at least be partially explained by meteorological factors (i.e. the number of rainy (precipitation >1mm) and warm days (average daily temperature >10°C) in a year). The longitudinal trends varied according to the altitude and the agricultural region of the farm. This study shows that longitudinal epidemiological data from sentinel farms combined with meteorological datasets can significantly contribute to understanding the effects of climate on infectious disease dynamics. When local environmental conditions are taken into account, the effects of climate change on disease dynamics can also be understood at more local scales. We recommend setting up a longitudinal sampling strategy across Europe in order to monitor climate-driven changes in helminth disease risk to inform adaptation strategies to promote animal health and productivity. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobell, David B.; Asseng, Senthold

2017-01-01

The potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity are of widespread interest to those concerned with addressing climate change and improving global food security. Two common approaches to assess these impacts are process-based simulation models, which attempt to represent key dynamic processes affecting crop yields, and statistical models, which estimate functional relationships between historical observations of weather and yields. Examples of both approaches are increasingly found in the scientific literature, although often published in different disciplinary journals. Here we compare published sensitivities to changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone from each approach for the subset of crops, locations, and climate scenarios for which both have been applied. Despite a common perception that statistical models are more pessimistic, we find no systematic differences between the predicted sensitivities to warming from process-based and statistical models up to +2 °C, with limited evidence at higher levels of warming. For precipitation, there are many reasons why estimates could be expected to differ, but few estimates exist to develop robust comparisons, and precipitation changes are rarely the dominant factor for predicting impacts given the prominent role of temperature, CO2, and ozone changes. A common difference between process-based and statistical studies is that the former tend to include the effects of CO2 increases that accompany warming, whereas statistical models typically do not. Major needs moving forward include incorporating CO2 effects into statistical studies, improving both approaches’ treatment of ozone, and increasing the use of both methods within the same study. At the same time, those who fund or use crop model projections should understand that in the short-term, both approaches when done well are likely to provide similar estimates of warming impacts, with statistical models generally requiring fewer resources to produce robust estimates, especially when applied to crops beyond the major grains.

Forage quality declines with rising temperatures, with implications for livestock production and methane emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Mark A.; Davis, Aaron P.; Chagunda, Mizeck G. G.; Manning, Pete

2017-03-01

Livestock numbers are increasing to supply the growing demand for meat-rich diets. The sustainability of this trend has been questioned, and future environmental changes, such as climate change, may cause some regions to become less suitable for livestock. Livestock and wild herbivores are strongly dependent on the nutritional chemistry of forage plants. Nutrition is positively linked to weight gains, milk production and reproductive success, and nutrition is also a key determinant of enteric methane production. In this meta-analysis, we assessed the effects of growing conditions on forage quality by compiling published measurements of grass nutritive value and combining these data with climatic, edaphic and management information. We found that forage nutritive value was reduced at higher temperatures and increased by nitrogen fertiliser addition, likely driven by a combination of changes to species identity and changes to physiology and phenology. These relationships were combined with multiple published empirical models to estimate forage- and temperature-driven changes to cattle enteric methane production. This suggested a previously undescribed positive climate change feedback, where elevated temperatures reduce grass nutritive value and correspondingly may increase methane production by 0.9 % with a 1 °C temperature rise and 4.5 % with a 5 °C rise (model average), thus creating an additional climate forcing effect. Future methane production increases are expected to be largest in parts of North America, central and eastern Europe and Asia, with the geographical extent of hotspots increasing under a high emissions scenario. These estimates require refinement and a greater knowledge of the abundance, size, feeding regime and location of cattle, and the representation of heat stress should be included in future modelling work. However, our results indicate that the cultivation of more nutritious forage plants and reduced livestock farming in warming regions may reduce this additional source of pastoral greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate-Smart Design for Ecosystem Management: A Test Application for Coral Reefs.

PubMed

West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Julius, Susan H; Hoffman, Jennie; Koltes, Karen H; MacGowan, Petra

2017-01-01

The interactive and cumulative impacts of climate change on natural resources such as coral reefs present numerous challenges for conservation planning and management. Climate change adaptation is complex due to climate-stressor interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leaves decision makers worldwide faced with local, regional, and global-scale threats to ecosystem processes and services, occurring over time frames that require both near-term and long-term planning. Thus there is a need for structured approaches to adaptation planning that integrate existing methods for vulnerability assessment with design and evaluation of effective adaptation responses. The Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning project of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force seeks to develop guidance for improving coral reef management through tailored application of a climate-smart approach. This approach is based on principles from a recently-published guide which provides a framework for adopting forward-looking goals, based on assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and applying a structured process to design effective adaptation strategies. Work presented in this paper includes: (1) examination of the climate-smart management cycle as it relates to coral reefs; (2) a compilation of adaptation strategies for coral reefs drawn from a comprehensive review of the literature; (3) in-depth demonstration of climate-smart design for place-based crafting of robust adaptation actions; and (4) feedback from stakeholders on the perceived usefulness of the approach. We conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned on integrating climate-smart design into real-world management planning processes and a call from stakeholders for an "adaptation design tool" that is now under development.

The role of team climate in improving the quality of chronic care delivery: a longitudinal study among professionals working with chronically ill adolescents in transitional care programmes.

PubMed

Cramm, Jane M; Strating, Mathilde M H; Nieboer, Anna P

2014-05-22

This study aimed to (1) evaluate the effectiveness of implementing transition programmes in improving the quality of chronic care delivery and (2) identify the predictive role of (changes in) team climate on the quality of chronic care delivery over time. This longitudinal study was undertaken with professionals working in hospitals and rehabilitation units that participated in the transition programme 'On Your Own Feet Ahead!' in the Netherlands. A total of 145/180 respondents (80.6%) filled in the questionnaire at the beginning of the programme (T1), and 101/173 respondents (58.4%) did so 1 year later at the end of the programme (T2). A total of 90 (52%) respondents filled in the questionnaire at both time points. Two-tailed, paired t tests were used to investigate improvements over time and multilevel analyses to investigate the predictive role of (changes in) team climate on the quality of chronic care delivery. Transition programme. Quality of chronic care delivery measured with the Assessment of Chronic Illness Care Short version (ACIC-S). The overall ACIC-S score at T1 was 5.90, indicating basic or intermediate support for chronic care delivery. The mean ACIC-S score at T2 significantly improved to 6.70, indicating advanced support for chronic care. After adjusting for the quality of chronic care delivery at T1 and significant respondents' characteristics, multilevel regression analyses showed that team climate at T1 (p<0.01) and changes in team climate (p<0.001) predicted the quality of chronic care delivery at T2. The implementation of transition programmes requires a supportive and stimulating team climate to enhance the quality of chronic care delivery to chronically ill adolescents. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Climate and health: observation and modeling of malaria in the Ferlo (Senegal).

PubMed

Diouf, Ibrahima; Deme, Abdoulaye; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Cissé, Moustapha

2013-01-01

The aim of this work, undertaken in the framework of QWeCI (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on health in the developing countries) project, is to study how climate variability could influence malaria seasonal incidence. It will also assess the evolution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria by simulation analysis of climate models according to various climate scenarios for the next years. Climate variability seems to be determinant for the risk of malaria development (Freeman and Bradley, 1996 [1], Lindsay and Birley, 1996 [2], Kuhn et al., 2005 [3]). Climate can impact on the epidemiology of malaria by several mechanisms, directly, via the development rates and survival of both pathogens and vectors, and indirectly, through changes in vegetation and land surface characteristics such as the variability of breeding sites like ponds. Copyright © 2013 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

The Assessment of School Climate: Review and Appraisal of Published Student-Report Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramelow, Daniela; Currie, Dorothy; Felder-Puig, Rosemarie

2015-01-01

School climate measurement is a long-standing topic in educational research. This review article provides an overview and appraisal of school climate measures published between 2003 and 2013 in scientific journals. A search for published school climate instruments for secondary school students was made in three databases. Twelve articles meeting…

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming.

PubMed

Verner, Glenn; Schütte, Stefanie; Knop, Juliane; Sankoh, Osman; Sauerborn, Rainer

2016-01-01

Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America. There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young scientists remains a challenge and should lead to innovative courses for large audiences, such as Massive Open Online Courses.

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming

PubMed Central

Verner, Glenn; Schütte, Stefanie; Knop, Juliane; Sankoh, Osman; Sauerborn, Rainer

2016-01-01

Background Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. Design We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. Results The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America. Conclusions There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young scientists remains a challenge and should lead to innovative courses for large audiences, such as Massive Open Online Courses. PMID:27339855

Experimental droughts with rainout shelters: A methodological review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Forecast increases in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts with climate change may have extreme and extensive ecological consequences. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify...

Global partnerships for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In a position paper published by the ASABE Global Engagement Task Force (Resource Magazine, ASABE, Spring 2015 Issue), authors outlined the goals for the Agricultural and Biological Engineering Global Initiative. This brief document is intended to represent the first action in this global partnersh...

Understanding Rates of Change: How have climate transitions during the Holocene driven the pace of vegetation change in California ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, L.; Wahl, D.; Barron, J. A.

2016-12-01

A fundamental aspect of ecosystem response to global climate change is the rate at which systems can change, determined in large part by the timing and magnitude of changes in climate parameters. Reorganization in atmosphere/ocean dynamics of the North Pacific on millennial to centennial time scales has resulted in climate change in western North America. The seasonality of the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific High, Pacific SSTs, and related high frequency variability (ENSO, PDO) all strongly influence temperature and precipitation regimes of western North America. This study assesses the rate of vegetation response to climate change in the western United States. Here we present preliminary reconstructions of rates of vegetation change in California from 11k cal. BP to the present. Research questions include: Do increased rates of ecosystem transformation correspond with times of marked reorganization in climate dynamics? What is the geographic distribution of rates of change, and how does that distribution vary through time? Rate of change is defined as the ratio of the difference in abundances of a fixed array of pollen taxa between adjacent samples within a pollen record over time. The measure of difference was determined using the VEGAN package in R and applying the Bray-Curtis measure. Analyses are based on publicly available data from published fossil pollen studies. Our initial results suggest broad coherence of increased change rates at around 3.5k and 6k cal. BP. Future work will focus on evaluating potential refinements of the filter applied to the pollen data and standardization of the sample intervals, as well as on expansion of the data sets analyzed to include the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest regions of North America in order to provide a more comprehensive analysis of past change rates in the western US.

Biometeorology for cities.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Balling, Robert C; Andrade, Riley; Scott Krayenhoff, E; Middel, Ariane; Urban, Aleš; Georgescu, Matei; Sailor, David J

2017-09-01

Improvements in global sustainability, health, and equity will largely be determined by the extent to which cities are able to become more efficient, hospitable, and productive places. The development and evolution of urban areas has a significant impact on local and regional weather and climate, which subsequently affect people and other organisms that live in and near cities. Biometeorologists, researchers who study the impact of weather and climate on living creatures, are well positioned to help evaluate and anticipate the consequences of urbanization on the biosphere. Motivated by the 60th anniversary of the International Society of Biometeorology, we reviewed articles published in the Society's International Journal of Biometeorology over the period 1974-2017 to understand if and how biometeorologists have directed attention to urban areas. We found that interest in urban areas has rapidly accelerated; urban-oriented articles accounted for more than 20% of all articles published in the journal in the most recent decade. Urban-focused articles in the journal span five themes: measuring urban climate, theoretical foundations and models, human thermal comfort, human morbidity and mortality, and ecosystem impacts. Within these themes, articles published in the journal represent a sizeable share of the total academic literature. More explicit attention from urban biometeorologists publishing in the journal to low- and middle-income countries, indoor environments, animals, and the impacts of climate change on human health would help ensure that the distinctive perspectives of biometeorology reach the places, people, and processes that are the foci of global sustainability, health, and equity goals.

Health benefits of a low carbon economy.

PubMed

Haines, A

2012-09-01

This article summarizes a presentation given at 'Health and Well-being: the 21st Century Agenda', which focused on the potential to make progress by making appropriate connections between activity to promote health and respond to the threat of climate change. It argues that a transition to a low carbon economy would bring together two of our greatest public health challenges, supporting action to improve public health within resource constraints and action to avert climate change as far as possible. Deep cuts in emissions are needed to prevent dangerous consequences arising from climate change. In addition, many of the policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will, in themselves, have beneficial effects on public health. This article provides an overview of several modelling studies which demonstrate that well-designed initiatives that curb greenhouse gas emissions in energy, residential construction, urban transport and agricultural systems can enhance global public health, including improving health among poor populations. Some of these health co-benefits can be achieved in a relatively short time frame, and they can help offset the costs of climate change mitigation policies. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

2017-09-01

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation in size of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sexual organs and its use in pollution and climate change studies.

PubMed

Sonne, Christian; Dietz, Rune; Born, Erik W; Riget, Frank F; Leifsson, Pall S; Bechshøft, Thea Ø; Kirkegaard, Maja

2007-11-15

Sexual organs and their development are susceptible to atmospheric transported environmental xenoendocrine pollutants and climate change (food availability). We therefore investigated sexual organs from 55 male and 44 female East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to obtain information about growth/size and sexual maturity. Then, the genitalia size was compared with those previously reported from Canadian and Svalbard polar bears. Growth models showed that East Greenland male polar bears reached sexual maturity around 7 years of age and females around 4 years of age. When comparing East Greenland and Svalbard polar bears, the size of baculum and uterus were significantly lower in the East Greenland polar bears (ANOVA: all p < 0.05). Based on previously published baculum mean values from Canadian polar bears, a similar baculum pattern was found for East Greenland vs. Canadian polar bears. It is speculated whether this could be a result of the general high variation in polar bear body size, temporal distribution patterns of anthropogenic long-range transported persistent organic pollutants or climate change (decreasing food availability). The present investigation represents conservation and background data for future spatial and temporal assessments of hunting, pollution and climate change scenarios.

Applications of very high-resolution imagery in the study and conservation of large predators in the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Larue, Michelle A; Knight, Joseph

2014-12-01

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically important krill and fish. Because sea ice loss is expected to be accompanied by declines in krill and fish predators, decoupling the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes on these predator populations is crucial for ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. We reviewed research published from 2007 to 2014 that incorporated very high-resolution satellite imagery to assess distribution, abundance, and effects of climate and other anthropogenic changes on populations of predators in polar regions. Very high-resolution imagery has been used to study 7 species of polar animals in 13 papers, many of which provide methods through which further research can be conducted. Use of very high-resolution imagery in the Southern Ocean can provide a broader understanding of climate and anthropogenic forces on populations and inform management and conservation recommendations. We recommend that conservation biologists continue to integrate high-resolution remote sensing into broad-scale biodiversity and population studies in remote areas, where it can provide much needed detail. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Re-evaluating occupational heat stress in a changing climate.

PubMed

Spector, June T; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-10-01

The potential consequences of occupational heat stress in a changing climate on workers, workplaces, and global economies are substantial. Occupational heat stress risk is projected to become particularly high in middle- and low-income tropical and subtropical regions, where optimal controls may not be readily available. This commentary presents occupational heat stress in the context of climate change, reviews its impacts, and reflects on implications for heat stress assessment and control. Future efforts should address limitations of existing heat stress assessment methods and generate economical, practical, and universal approaches that can incorporate data of varying levels of detail, depending on resources. Validation of these methods should be performed in a wider variety of environments, and data should be collected and analyzed centrally for both local and large-scale hazard assessments and to guide heat stress adaptation planning. Heat stress standards should take into account variability in worker acclimatization, other vulnerabilities, and workplace resources. The effectiveness of controls that are feasible and acceptable should be evaluated. Exposure scientists are needed, in collaboration with experts in other areas, to effectively prevent and control occupational heat stress in a changing climate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Selbig, William R

2015-07-15

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Long-term changes in the heat-mortality relationship according to heterogeneous regional climate: a time-series study in South Korea.

PubMed

Heo, Seulkee; Lee, Eunil; Kwon, Bo Yeon; Lee, Suji; Jo, Kyung Hee; Kim, Jinsun

2016-08-03

Several studies identified a heterogeneous impact of heat on mortality in hot and cool regions during a fixed period, whereas less evidence is available for changes in risk over time due to climate change in these regions. We compared changes in risk during periods without (1996-2000) and with (2008-2012) heatwave warning forecasts in regions of South Korea with different climates. Study areas were categorised into 3 clusters based on the spatial clustering of cooling degree days in the period 1993-2012: hottest cluster (cluster H), moderate cluster (cluster M) and cool cluster (cluster C). The risk was estimated according to increases in the daily all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality per 1°C change in daily temperature above the threshold, using a generalised additive model. The risk of all types of mortality increased in cluster H in 2008-2012, compared with 1996-2000, whereas the risks in all-combined regions and cooler clusters decreased. Temporal increases in mortality risk were larger for some vulnerable subgroups, including younger adults (<75 years), those with a lower education and blue-collar workers, in cluster H as well as all-combined regions. Different patterns of risk change among clusters might be attributable to large increases in heatwave frequency or duration during study periods and the degree of urbanisation in cluster H. People living in hotter regions or with a lower socioeconomic status are at higher risk following an increasing trend of heat-related mortality risks. Continuous efforts are needed to understand factors which affect changes in heat-related mortality risks. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 14. Research needed to determine the present carbon balance of northern ecosystems and the potential effect of carbon-dioxide-induced climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, P.C.

1982-10-01

Given the potential significance of northern ecosystems to the global carbon budget it is critical to estimate the current carbon balance of these ecosystems as precisely as possible, to improve estimates of the future carbon balance if world climates change, and to assess the range of certainty associated with these estimates. As a first step toward quantifying some of the potential changes, a workshop with tundra and taiga ecologists and soil scientists was held in San Diego in March 1980. The first part of this report summarizes the conclusions of this workshop with regard to the estimate of the currentmore » areal extent and carbon content of the circumpolar arctic and the taiga, current rates of carbon accumulation in the peat in the arctic and the taiga, and predicted future carbon accumulation rates based on the present understanding of controlling processes and on the understanding of past climates and vegetation. This report presents a finer resolution of areal extents, standing crops, and production rates than was possible previously because of recent syntheses of data from the International Biological Program and current studies in the northern ecosystems, some of which have not yet been published. This recent information changes most of the earlier estimates of carbon content and affects predictions of the effect of climate change. The second part of this report outlines research needed to fill major gaps in the understanding of the role of northern ecosystems in global climate change.« less

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

2011-01-01

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

2018-03-01

Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

2015-04-05

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4°C and decrease thereafter.

PubMed

Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

2016-11-15

This paper focuses on the influence of mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can on occasion trigger major floods in alpine catchments. In order to assess the evolution of these events in a recent past, and the potential changes that could be experienced in a changing climate over coming decades, we have focused on a small catchment in north-eastern Switzerland, the Sitter, well-endowed with both climate and hydrological data. Observations show that there has been an increase in the number of rain-on-snow events since the early 1960s related to the rise in atmospheric temperatures. Results from a simple temperature-based snow model show that the number of ROS events could increase by close to 50% with temperatures 2-4°C warmer than today, before declining when temperatures go beyond 4°C. The likelihood of more ROS events suggests that the risks of flooding in a future climate may indeed get worse before they improve. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, B.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become a central element of national and international assessments of climate change. The CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) model experiments will be the foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), scheduled for publication around 2021. To increase the fidelity of the IPCC AR6, the CMIP6 model experiments need rigorous evaluation. The "Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects" (Obs4MIPs) collects, organizes and publishes various well-established satellite data sets for CMIP model evaluation. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA's temperature and humidity sounding system on the Aqua satellite, has provided over a decade-long high-quality tropospheric temperature and moisture sounding data. Under the current support of the NASA Data for Operation and Assessment (NDOA) program, we are generating and publishing the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set including the monthly mean tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity profiles from September 2002 to September 2016. This will provide the latest AIRS data in Obs4MIPs and assist the climate modeling community to better use the AIRS data for CMIP (including CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) model evaluation. In this presentation, we will discuss the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set and their possible use for CMIP6 climate model evaluation.

Database of Alluvial Radiocarbon Dates in European Russia and Siberia and its Palaeohydrological Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matlakhova, Ekaterina; Panin, Andrei

2017-04-01

We collected and analyzed published radiocarbon dates from East European Plain (EEP) and Siberia to pick absolute dates on alluvial and associated deposits. After filtering unreliable dates, 1000 radiocarbon dates from EEP and 500 from Siberia were included into the database. Each date was supplied with information on geographic location and coordinates, catchment area, geomorphological position, characteristics of geological section and dated materials. Also the information about published sources was given. Documented sections refer to fluvial forms in a wide range of catchment sizes. To extract palaeohydrological signal we used two kinds of proxies: sedimentological and geomorphological. We used the following indicators of low activity: organic horizons (soil, peat) in overbank alluvium, balka bottoms and gully fans, small river palaeochannels; and the following indicators of high activity: active sedimentation on river floodplains (burial of organic horizons), balka bottoms and gully fans, erosion by flood flows on floodplains, in bottoms of balkas and gullies, river incision, big palaeochannels, channel avulsions and chute cutoffs. 
 Each date that received palaeohydrological interpretation was regarded as the indicator of a particular Local Palaeohydrological Event. Combined probability density functions of high- and low-activity dates were used to detect time intervals of different palaeohydrological status. For EEP after low fluvial activity during LGM two palaeohydrological epochs were designated: extremely high activity in the end of MIS 2 (ca. 18-11.7 ka b2k), and much lower activity in the Holocene. Within the Holocene two hierarchical levels of hydroclimatic variability were designated according to their duration and magnitude - regional palaeohydrological phases (centuries to few millennia) and regional palaeofluvial episodes (decades to few centuries). Tendency is rather clear of activity lowering in the first half and rise in the second half of the Holocene. In most cases changes of fluvial activity were most likely induced by changing amounts of spring snowmelt runoff. Most distinct correlation of temperature and hydrological regimes was found in the Late Holocene: high fluvial activity corresponded to cold climatic phases (Little Ice Age), low activity, to warm phases (Medieval Climatic Optimum, current climate warming). Correlation of changes in fluvial activity within a west-east transect over Europe revealed relatively poor correlation in the Early and Mid Holocene and much higher synchronism since 3.0 ka b2k, which may indicate increasing role of westerlies in controlling European climates in the Late Holocene. Throughout the whole Holocene, changes of fluvial activity were governed by natural climate forcing until the last few centuries when land use changes induced accelerated hillslope and gully erosion. Comparison of results over Siberia with previously published Holocene flood chronologies in Europe revealed high concordance in the last millennium (the hydrological response to the MWP and LIA climate oscillations) and less similarity in earlier time.

Simulated Near-term Climate Change Impacts on Major Crops across Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourdji, S.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Obando-Bonilla, D.; Navarro-Racines, C.; Moreno, P.; Fisher, M.; Prager, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.

2016-12-01

Robust estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural production can help to direct investments in adaptation in the coming decades. In this study commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank, near-term climate change impacts (2020-2049) are simulated relative to a historical baseline period (1971-2000) for five major crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean and dry bean) across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using the DSSAT crop model. No adaptation or technological change is assumed, thereby providing an analysis of existing climatic stresses on yields in the region and a worst-case scenario in the coming decades. DSSAT is run across irrigated and rain-fed growing areas in the region at a 0.5° spatial resolution for each crop. Crop model inputs for soils, planting dates, crop varieties and fertilizer applications are taken from previously-published datasets, and also optimized for this study. Results show that maize and dry bean are the crops most affected by climate change, followed by wheat, with only minimal changes for rice and soybean. Generally, rain-fed production sees more severe yield declines than irrigated production, although large increases in irrigation water are needed to maintain yields, reducing the yield-irrigation productivity in most areas and potentially exacerbating existing supply limitations in watersheds. This is especially true for rice and soybean, the two crops showing the most neutral yield changes. Rain-fed yields for maize and bean are projected to decline most severely in the sub-tropical Caribbean, Central America and northern South America, where climate models show a consistent drying trend. Crop failures are also projected to increase in these areas, necessitating switches to other crops or investment in adaptation measures. Generally, investment in agricultural adaptation to climate change (such as improved seed and irrigation infrastructure) will be needed throughout the LAC region in the 21st century.

A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration

PubMed Central

Timpane-Padgham, Britta L.

2017-01-01

Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate. PMID:28301560

A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

PubMed

Timpane-Padgham, Britta L; Beechie, Tim; Klinger, Terrie

2017-01-01

Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate.

Toward a loss of functional diversity in stream fish assemblages under climate change.

PubMed

Buisson, Laëtitia; Grenouillet, Gaël; Villéger, Sébastien; Canal, Julie; Laffaille, Pascal

2013-02-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity has so far been biased toward the taxonomic identification of the species likely either to benefit from climate modifications or to experience overall declines. There have still been few studies intended to correlate the characteristics of species to their sensitivity to climate change, even though it is now recognized that functional trait-based approaches are promising tools for addressing challenges related to global changes. In this study, two functional indices (originality and uniqueness) were first measured for 35 fish species occurring in French streams. They were then combined to projections of range shifts in response to climate change derived from species distribution models. We set out to investigate: (1) the relationship between the degrees of originality and uniqueness of fish species, and their projected response to future climate change; and (2) the consequences of individual responses of species for the functional diversity of fish assemblages. After accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species, we have demonstrated that the two indices used measure two complementary facets of the position of fish species in a functional space. We have also rejected the hypothesis that the most original and/or less redundant species would necessarily experience the greatest declines in habitat suitability as a result of climate change. However, individual species range shifts could lead simultaneously both to a severe decline in the functional diversity of fish assemblages, and to an increase in the functional similarity among assemblages, supporting the hypothesis that disturbance favors communities with combination of common traits and biotic homogenization as well. Our findings therefore emphasize the importance of going beyond the simple taxonomic description of diversity to provide a better assessment of the likely future effects of environmental changes on biodiversity, thus helping to design more effective conservation and management measures. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

PubMed

Santini, Luca; Cornulier, Thomas; Bullock, James M; Palmer, Stephen C F; White, Steven M; Hodgson, Jenny A; Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin M J

2016-07-01

Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life-history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life-history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait-space-demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod.

PubMed

Engelhard, Georg H; Righton, David A; Pinnegar, John K

2014-08-01

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3 1/2 decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. © 2013 Crown copyright. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Lessons Learned on Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences Across Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Otmani del Barrio, Mariam

2017-01-01

Background: There is limited published evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation in managing the health risks of climate variability and change in low- and middle-income countries. Objectives: To document lessons learned and good practice examples from health adaptation pilot projects in low- and middle-income countries to facilitate assessing and overcoming barriers to implementation and to scaling up. Methods: We evaluated project reports and related materials from the first five years of implementation (2008–2013) of multinational health adaptation projects in Albania, Barbados, Bhutan, China, Fiji, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Philippines, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. We also collected qualitative data through a focus group consultation and 19 key informant interviews. Results: Our recommendations include that national health plans, policies, and budget processes need to explicitly incorporate the risks of current and projected climate variability and change. Increasing resilience is likely to be achieved through longer-term, multifaceted, and collaborative approaches, with supporting activities (and funding) for capacity building, communication, and institutionalized monitoring and evaluation. Projects should be encouraged to focus not just on shorter-term outputs to address climate variability, but also on establishing processes to address longer-term climate change challenges. Opportunities for capacity development should be created, identified, and reinforced. Conclusions: Our analyses highlight that, irrespective of resource constraints, ministries of health and other institutions working on climate-related health issues in low- and middle-income countries need to continue to prepare themselves to prevent additional health burdens in the context of a changing climate and socioeconomic development patterns. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP405 PMID:28632491

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

PubMed

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact on infection risks during bathing downstream of sewage emissions from CSOs or WWTPs.

PubMed

Sterk, Ankie; de Man, Heleen; Schijven, Jack F; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2016-11-15

Climate change is expected to influence infection risks while bathing downstream of sewage emissions from combined sewage overflows (CSOs) or waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) due to changes in pathogen influx, rising temperatures and changing flow rates of the receiving waters. In this study, climate change impacts on the surface water concentrations of Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium and norovirus originating from sewage were modelled. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was used to assess changes in risks of infection. In general, infection risks downstream of WWTPs are higher than downstream CSOs. Even though model outputs show an increase in CSO influxes, in combination with changes in pathogen survival, dilution within the sewage system and bathing behaviour, the effects on the infection risks are limited. However, a decrease in dilution capacity of surface waters could have significant impact on the infection risks of relatively stable pathogens like Cryptosporidium and norovirus. Overall, average risks are found to be higher downstream WWTPs compared to CSOs. Especially with regard to decreased flow rates, adaptation measures on treatment at WWTPs may be more beneficial for human health than decreasing CSO events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Resistance to Organizational Cultural Change in the Military -- A JFO Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-02

is seen by all members as supporting their interests.38 There are many tools to assist in formulating climate or culture change and one such tool ...an important change formulation tool , stood up a training center with excellent support and expert trainers from both services, and set a high...Endnotes 1 R. Dale Jeffery, The Soldier’s Quote Book (Houston, TX: DaVinci Publishing Group, 2000), 119. 2 Robert M. Murphy, Managing Strategic Change

Psychometric Principles in Measurement for Geoscience Education Research: A Climate Change Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libarkin, J. C.; Gold, A. U.; Harris, S. E.; McNeal, K.; Bowles, R.

2015-12-01

Understanding learning in geoscience classrooms requires that we use valid and reliable instruments aligned with intended learning outcomes. Nearly one hundred instruments assessing conceptual understanding in undergraduate science and engineering classrooms (often called concept inventories) have been published and are actively being used to investigate learning. The techniques used to develop these instruments vary widely, often with little attention to psychometric principles of measurement. This paper will discuss the importance of using psychometric principles to design, evaluate, and revise research instruments, with particular attention to the validity and reliability steps that must be undertaken to ensure that research instruments are providing meaningful measurement. An example from a climate change inventory developed by the authors will be used to exemplify the importance of validity and reliability, including the value of item response theory for instrument development. A 24-item instrument was developed based on published items, conceptions research, and instructor experience. Rasch analysis of over 1000 responses provided evidence for the removal of 5 items for misfit and one item for potential bias as measured via differential item functioning. The resulting 18-item instrument can be considered a valid and reliable measure based on pre- and post-implementation metrics. Consideration of the relationship between respondent demographics and concept inventory scores provides unique insight into the relationship between gender, religiosity, values and climate change understanding.

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

PubMed

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Stephens, Tara; Wilson, Sian C; Cassidy, Ffion; Bender, Darren; Gummer, David; Smith, Des H V; Lloyd, Natasha; McPherson, Jana M; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2018-02-01

Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperilled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperilled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered 8 years of annual mark-recapture data (2007-2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class, and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems have raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and population dynamics in peripheral populations whose viability might ultimately determine their species' ability to track climatically suitable space. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber

2007-10-01

High Northern Hemisphere latitudes are undergoing rapid and significant change associated with climate warming. Climatic change in this region interacts with and affects the rate of the global change through atmospheric circulation, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical feedbacks. Changes in the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, and carbon budget feedback to regional and global weather and climate systems. Two-thirds of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude land mass resides in Northern Eurasia (~20% of the global land mass), and this region has undergone sweeping socio-economic change throughout the 20th century. How this carbon-rich, cold region component of the Earth system functions as a regional entity and interacts with and feeds back to the greater global system is to a large extent unknown. To mitigate the deficiencies in understanding these feedbacks, which may in turn hamper our understanding of the global change rates and patterns, an initiative was formed. Three years ago the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental change in this region. The NEESPI Science Plan and its Executive Summary have been published at the NEESPI web site (neespi.org). Since 2004, NEESPI participants have been able to seed several waves of research proposals to international and national funding agencies and institutions and also contribute to the International Polar Year. Currently, NEESPI is widely recognized and endorsed by several Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) programmes and projects: the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme, the World Climate Research Programme through the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment and Climate and Cryosphere Projects, the Global Water System Project, Global Carbon Project, Global Land Project, and the Integrated Land Ecosystem—Atmosphere Processes Study. Through NEESPI, more than 100 individually funded projects (always with international participation) in the United States, Russian Federation, China, European Union, Japan, and Canada have been mutually united to explore the scientifically significant Northern Eurasian region. NEESPI scientists have been quite productive during the past two years (2005 2006) publishing more than 200 books, book chapters, and papers in refereed journals. NEESPI sessions at international conferences are open to everyone who works on environmental and climate change problems in Northern Eurasia and the circumpolar boreal zone. This thematic issue brings together articles from the authors who presented their latest results at the Annual Fall American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco (December 2006). The research letters in this issue are preceded by two editorial papers (Leptoukh et al and Sherstyukov et al) devoted to informational support of research in the NEESPI domain that is critical to the success of the Initiative. The following papers are quite diverse and are assembled into five groups devoted to studies of climate and hydrology, land cover and land use, the biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks, the cryosphere, and human dimensions in the NEESPI domain and the circumpolar boreal zone. Focus on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Climate and Environmental Change Contents The articles below represent the first accepted contributions and further additions will appear in the near future. Editorials NASA NEESPI Data and Services Center for Satellite Remote Sensing Information Gregory Leptoukh, Ivan Csiszar, Peter Romanov, Suhung Shen, Tatiana Loboda and Irina Gerasimov NEESPI Science and Data Support Center for Hydrometeorological Information in Obninsk, Russia B G Sherstyukov, V N Razuvaev, O N Bulygina and P Ya Groisman Climate and hydrology Changes in the fabric of the Arctic's greenhouse blanket Jennifer A Francis and Elias Hunter Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973 2005 Heejun Chang and Won-Tae Kwon Land cover and land use Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability Andrea H Lloyd and Andrew G Bunn The biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range inWest Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns Anna Peregon, Masao Uchida and Yasuyuki Shibata Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change T J Bohn, D P Lettenmaier, K Sathulur, L C Bowling, E Podest, K C McDonald and T Friborg The cryosphere Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission O A Anisimov Glacier changes in the Siberian Altai Mountains, Ob river basin, (1952 2006) estimated with high resolution imagery A B Surazakov, V B Aizen, E M Aizen and S A Nikitin Human dimensions Food and water security in a changing arctic climate Daniel M White, S Craig Gerlach, Philip Loring, Amy C Tidwell and Molly C Chambers

Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa.

PubMed

Ayanlade, Ayansina; Radeny, Maren; Morton, John F; Muchaba, Tabitha

2018-07-15

This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD>0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Anåker, Anna; Nilsson, Maria; Holmner, Åsa; Elf, Marie

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues and examine how nurses perceive their role in contributing to the process of sustainable development. Climate change and its implications for human health represent an increasingly important issue for the healthcare sector. According to the International Council of Nurses Code of Ethics, nurses have a responsibility to be involved and support climate change mitigation and adaptation to protect human health. This is a descriptive, explorative qualitative study. Nurses (n = 18) were recruited from hospitals, primary care and emergency medical services; eight participated in semi-structured, in-depth individual interviews and 10 participated in two focus groups. Data were collected from April-October 2013 in Sweden; interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis. Two main themes were identified from the interviews: (i) an incongruence between climate and environmental issues and nurses' daily work; and (ii) public health work is regarded as a health co-benefit of climate change mitigation. While being green is not the primary task in a lifesaving, hectic and economically challenging context, nurses' perceived their profession as entailing responsibility, opportunities and a sense of individual commitment to influence the environment in a positive direction. This study argues there is a need for increased awareness of issues and methods that are crucial for the healthcare sector to respond to climate change. Efforts to develop interventions should explore how nurses should be able to contribute to the healthcare sector's preparedness for and contributions to sustainable development. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schickhoff, U.; Bobrowski, M.; Bohner, J.; Burzle, B.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Gerlitz, L.; Heyken, H.; Lange, J.; Muller, M.; Scholten, T.; Schwab, N.; Wedegartner, R.

2015-05-01

Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines and rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently complete inertia. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding sensitivity and response of Himalayan treelines to climate warming, based on extensive field observations, published results in the widely scattered literature, and novel data from ongoing research of the present authors. Several sensitivity indicators such as treeline type, treeline form, seed-based regeneration, and growth patterns are evaluated. Since most Himalayan treelines are anthropogenically depressed, observed advances are largely the result of land use change. Near-natural treelines are usually krummholz treelines, which are relatively unresponsive to climate change. Nevertheless, intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive to temperature change, in particular in winter and pre-monsoon seasons. High pre-monsoon temperature trends will most likely drive tree growth performance in the western and central Himalaya. Ecological niche modelling suggests that bioclimatic conditions for a range expansion of treeline trees will be created during coming decades.

Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Woods, H Arthur; Buckley, Lauren B; Potter, Kristen A; MacLean, Heidi J; Higgins, Jessica K

2011-11-01

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability.

PubMed

Moore, Andrew D; Ghahramani, Afshin

2013-05-01

Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia. Climate change impacts were examined across space (25 representative locations) and time (1970-99, 2030, 2050 and 2070 climate) for each of five livestock enterprises. Climate projection uncertainty was considered by analysing projections from four global circulation models (GCMs). Livestock production scenarios were compared at their profit-maximizing stocking rate, constrained to ensure that risks of soil erosion were acceptable. Impacts on net primary productivity (ANPP) varied widely between GCM projections; the average declines from historical climate were 9% in 2030, 7% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. Declines in ANPP were larger at lower-rainfall locations. Sensitivity of ANPP to changes in rainfall ranged from 0.4 to 1.7, to temperature increase from -0.15 to +0.07 °C(-1) and to CO2 increase from 0.11 to 0.32. At most locations the dry summer period lengthened, exacerbating the greater erosion risk due to lower ANPP. Transpiration efficiency of pastures increased by 6-25%, but the proportion of ANPP that could safely be consumed by livestock fell sharply so that operating profit (at constant prices) fell by an average of 27% in 2030, 32% in 2050 and 48% in 2070. This amplification of ANPP reductions into larger profitability declines is likely to generalize to other extensive livestock systems. Profit declines were most marked at drier locations, with operating losses expected at 9 of the 25 locations by 2070. Differences between livestock enterprises were smaller than differences between locations and dates. Future research into climate change impacts on Australian livestock production needs to emphasise the dry margin of the cereal-livestock zone. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

PubMed

Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-12-15

Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

PubMed

Kistner, Erica Jean

2017-12-08

The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Fire and ecosystem change in the Arctic across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denis, Elizabeth H.; Pedentchouk, Nikolai; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark; Freeman, Katherine H.

2017-06-01

Fire has been an important component of ecosystems on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Fire can affect vegetation distribution, the carbon cycle, and climate. The relationship between climate and fire is complex, in large part because of a key role of vegetation type. Here, we evaluate regional scale fire-climate relationships during a past global warming event, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), in order to understand how vegetation influenced the links between climate and fire occurrence in the Arctic region. To document concurrent changes in climate, vegetation, and fire occurrence, we evaluated biomarkers, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), terpenoids, and alkanes, from the PETM interval at a marine depositional site (IODP site 302, the Lomonosov Ridge) in the Arctic Ocean. Biomarker, fossil, and isotope evidence from site 302 indicates that terrestrial vegetation changed during the PETM. The abundance of the C29n-alkanes, pollen, and the ratio of leaf-wax n-alkanes relative to diterpenoids all indicate that proportional contributions from angiosperm vegetation increased relative to that from gymnosperms. These changes accompanied increased moisture transport to the Arctic and higher temperatures, as recorded by previously published proxy records. We find that PAH abundances were elevated relative to total plant biomarkers throughout the PETM, and suggest that fire occurrence increased relative to plant productivity. The fact that fire frequency or prevalence may have increased during wetter Arctic conditions suggests that changes in fire occurrence were not a simple function of aridity, as is commonly conceived. Instead, we suggest that the climate-driven ecological shift to angiosperm-dominated vegetation was what led to increased fire occurrence. Potential increases in terrestrial plant biomass that arose from warm, wet, and high CO2 conditions were possibly attenuated by biomass burning associated with compositional changes in the plant community.

Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Watts, Michael J; Delean, Steven; Brook, Brook W; Heard, Lee M B; Bull, C M

2012-09-01

The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Word diffusion and climate science.

PubMed

Bentley, R Alexander; Garnett, Philip; O'Brien, Michael J; Brock, William A

2012-01-01

As public and political debates often demonstrate, a substantial disjoint can exist between the findings of science and the impact it has on the public. Using climate-change science as a case example, we reconsider the role of scientists in the information-dissemination process, our hypothesis being that important keywords used in climate science follow "boom and bust" fashion cycles in public usage. Representing this public usage through extraordinary new data on word frequencies in books published up to the year 2008, we show that a classic two-parameter social-diffusion model closely fits the comings and goings of many keywords over generational or longer time scales. We suggest that the fashions of word usage contributes an empirical, possibly regular, correlate to the impact of climate science on society.

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure.

PubMed

Gibb, Heloise; Sanders, Nathan J; Dunn, Robert R; Watson, Simon; Photakis, Manoli; Abril, Silvia; Andersen, Alan N; Angulo, Elena; Armbrecht, Inge; Arnan, Xavier; Baccaro, Fabricio B; Bishop, Tom R; Boulay, Raphael; Castracani, Cristina; Del Toro, Israel; Delsinne, Thibaut; Diaz, Mireia; Donoso, David A; Enríquez, Martha L; Fayle, Tom M; Feener, Donald H; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Gómez, Crisanto; Grasso, Donato A; Groc, Sarah; Heterick, Brian; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Lach, Lori; Lattke, John; Leponce, Maurice; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Longino, John; Lucky, Andrea; Majer, Jonathan; Menke, Sean B; Mezger, Dirk; Mori, Alessandra; Munyai, Thinandavha C; Paknia, Omid; Pearce-Duvet, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Martin; Philpott, Stacy M; de Souza, Jorge L P; Tista, Melanie; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vonshak, Merav; Parr, Catherine L

2015-06-07

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Nufio, César R; Kirk, Evan M; Kingsolver, Joel G

2015-06-22

Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Assessing Climate Misconceptions of Middle School Learners and Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A.; Cirucci, L.; Bressler, D.; Dempsey, C.; Peffer, T.

2012-12-01

Middle School students and their teachers are among the many populations in the U.S. with misconceptions regarding the science or even reality of climate change. Teaching climate change science in schools is of paramount importance since all school-age children will eventually assume responsibility for the management and policy-making decisions of our planet. The recently published Framework for K-12 Science Education (National Research Council, 2012) emphasizes the importance of students understanding global climate change and its impacts on society. A preliminary assessment of over a thousand urban middles school students found the following from pretests prior to a climate literacy curriculum: - Do not understand that climate occurs on a time scale of decades (most think it is weeks or months) -Do not know the main atmospheric contributors to global warming -Do not understand the role of greenhouse gases as major contributors to increasing Earth's surface temperature -Do not understand the role of water vapor to trap heat and add to the greenhouse effect -Cannot identify some of the human activities that increase the amount of CO2 -Cannot identify sources of carbon emissions produced by US citizens -Cannot describe human activities that are causing the long-term increase of carbon -dioxide levels over the last 100 years -Cannot describe carbon reduction strategies that are feasible for lowering the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere To address the lack of a well-designed middle school science climate change curriculum that can be used to help teachers promote the teaching and learning of important climate change concepts, we developed a 20-day Environmental Literacy and Inquiry (ELI): Climate Change curriculum in partnership with a local school district. Comprehension increased significantly from pre- to post-test after enactment of the ELI curriculum in the classrooms. This work is part of an ongoing systemic curriculum reform initiative to promote (1) environmental literacy and inquiry and (2) foster the development of geospatial thinking and reasoning using geospatial technologies as an essential component of the middle school science curriculum. The curriculum is designed to align instructional materials and assessments with learning goals. The following frameworks were used to provide guidelines for the climate change science content in addition to the science inquiry upon which schools must focus: Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009) and the AAAS Project 2061 Communicating and Learning About Global Climate Change (AAAS, 2007). The curriculum is a coherent sequence of learning activities that include climate change investigations with Google Earth, Web-based interactivities that include an online carbon emissions calculator and a Web-based geologic time-line, and inquiry-based ("hands-on") laboratories. The climate change science topics include the atmosphere, Earth system energy balance, weather, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and "humans and climate". It is hoped that with a solid foundation of climate science in the classroom, middle school learners will be in a position to evaluate new scientific discoveries, emerging data sets, and reasonably assess information and misinformation by which they are surrounded on a daily basis.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).

PubMed

Jude, S R; Drew, G H; Pollard, S J T; Rocks, S A; Jenkinson, K; Lamb, R

2017-01-01

There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

2017-04-01

As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here, we discuss the most recent advances on the application of soil mapping and modeling to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies; and These strategies are a key component of the implementation of sustainable land management policies need to be integrated are critical to. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Pereira, P., Brevic, E., Cerda, A., Jordan, A. (2017) Soil mapping and processes models for sustainable land management applied to modern challenges. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B. (Eds.) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land use management (Elsevier Publishing House) ISBN: 9780128052006

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment.

PubMed

McDonald, Karlie S; Hobday, Alistair J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Thompson, Peter A

2018-07-01

The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.

PubMed

Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E; Visser, Marcel E

2014-10-22

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the health of older people in Australia: A scoping review on the role of mobile applications (apps) in ameliorating impact.

PubMed

Black, Deborah A; O'Loughlin, Kate; Wilson, Leigh A

2018-06-01

Due to the impact of climate change, mobile applications (apps) providing information about the external environment have the potential to improve the health of older people. The purpose of this research was to undertake a scoping review of the evidence on the usability, feasibility and effectiveness of mobile apps to encourage access to activities outside the home in older people. A search of databases was undertaken with relevant keywords. Selected manuscripts were judged for relevance to the inclusion criteria and assessed for quality. Very few published studies examined mobile apps specifically designed to prevent, or to treat, chronic disease in ageing populations, and fewer had rigorous designs. No study addressed accessing the external environment in the context of climate change. This study demonstrates that there is a gap in the evidence about the mobile apps designed for healthy ageing and, more specifically, to improve access to the external environment. © 2018 AJA Inc.

How is adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability research engaging with gender?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunce, A.; Ford, J.

2015-12-01

The gendered dimensions of climate change have received increasing interest in climate change adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability (ARV) research. Yet concerns have been expressed that engagement with ‘gender’ in this work has been tokenistic. In this context, we ask: how is climate change ARV research engaging with gender? To answer this question, we develop an assessment framework capturing key attributes of engagement and use it to evaluate peer reviewed ARV articles with a focus on gender published since 2006 (n = 123). Results indicate an increase in ARV studies with a gender focus over this period, with the level of gender engagement also increasing. There are a relatively equal numbers of studies categorized as engaging gender at a high, medium, and low level, with studies from Sub-Saharan Africa consistently exhibiting high levels of gender engagement. Gender focused ARV has a strong focus on examining female experiences, with few studies explicitly focusing on men, and no work accounting for those identifying outside the gender binary.

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Andersson, Camilla; Baklanov, Alexander; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H.; Doherty, Ruth; Engardt, Magnuz; Geels, Camilla; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Hedegaard, Gitte B.; Katragkou, Eleni; Langner, Joakim; Lei, Hang; Manders, Astrid; Melas, Dimitris; Meleux, Frédérik; Rouïl, Laurence; Sofiev, Mikhail; Soares, Joana; Stevenson, David S.; Tombrou-Tzella, Maria; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Young, Paul

2015-08-01

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

The I.A.G. / A.I.G. SEDIBUD Book Project: Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Undisturbed Cold Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.; Dixon, John C.; Zwolinski, Zbigniew

2015-04-01

The currently prepared SEDIBUD Book on "Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Undisturbed Cold Environments" (edited by Achim A. Beylich, John C. Dixon and Zbigniew Zwolinski and published by Cambridge University Press) is summarizing and synthesizing the achievements of the International Association of Geomorphologists` (I.A.G./A.I.G.) Working Group SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments), which has been active since 2005 (http://www.geomorph.org/wg/wgsb.html). Amplified climate change and ecological sensitivity of largely undisturbed polar and high-altitude cold climate environments have been highlighted as key global environmental issues. The effects of projected climate change will change surface environments in cold regions and will alter the fluxes of sediments, nutrients and solutes, but the absence of quantitative data and coordinated geomorphic process monitoring and analysis to understand the sensitivity of the Earth surface environment in these largely undisturbed environments is acute. Our book addresses this existing key knowledge gap. The applied approach of integrating comparable and longer-term field datasets on contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes from a number of different defined cold climate catchment geosystems for better understanding (i) the environmental drivers and rates of contemporary denudational surface processes and (ii) possible effects of projected climate change in cold regions is unique in the field of geomorphology. Largely undisturbed cold climate environments can provide baseline data for modeling the effects of environmental change. The book synthesizes work carried out by numerous SEDIBUD Members over the last decade in numerous cold climate catchment geosystems worldwide. For reaching a global cover of different cold climate environments the book is - after providing an introduction part and a basic part on climate change in cold environments and general implications for solute and sedimentary fluxes - dealing in different defined parts with Sub-Arctic and Arctic Environments, Sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Environments, and Alpine / Mountain Environments. The book includes a synthesis key chapter where comparable datasets on contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes generated during the conducted coordinated research efforts in different cold climate catchment geosystems are integrated with the key goals to (i) identify the main environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes, and (ii) model possible effects of projected climate change on solute and sedimentary fluxes in cold climate environments. The SEDIBUD Book provides new key findings on environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes, and on spatial variability within global cold climate environments. The book will go in production in July 2015.

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate-related changes of soil characteristics affect bacterial community composition and function of high altitude and latitude lakes.

PubMed

Rofner, Carina; Peter, Hannes; Catalán, Núria; Drewes, Fabian; Sommaruga, Ruben; Pérez, María Teresa

2017-06-01

Lakes at high altitude and latitude are typically unproductive ecosystems where external factors outweigh the relative importance of in-lake processes, making them ideal sentinels of climate change. Climate change is inducing upward vegetation shifts at high altitude and latitude regions that translate into changes in the pools of soil organic matter. Upon mobilization, this allochthonous organic matter may rapidly alter the composition and function of lake bacterial communities. Here, we experimentally simulate this potential climate-change effect by exposing bacterioplankton of two lakes located above the treeline, one in the Alps and one in the subarctic region, to soil organic matter from below and above the treeline. Changes in bacterial community composition, diversity and function were followed for 72 h. In the subarctic lake, soil organic matter from below the treeline reduced bulk and taxon-specific phosphorus uptake, indicating that bacterial phosphorus limitation was alleviated compared to organic matter from above the treeline. These effects were less pronounced in the alpine lake, suggesting that soil properties (phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon availability) and water temperature further shaped the magnitude of response. The rapid bacterial succession observed in both lakes indicates that certain taxa directly benefited from soil sources. Accordingly, the substrate uptake profiles of initially rare bacteria (copiotrophs) indicated that they are one of the main actors cycling soil-derived carbon and phosphorus. Our work suggests that climate-induced changes in soil characteristics affect bacterioplankton community structure and function, and in turn, the cycling of carbon and phosphorus in high altitude and latitude aquatic ecosystems. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

PubMed

Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-04-05

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water.

PubMed

Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; de Nijs, Ton

2016-05-15

Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by, for instance, bathing or drinking-water consumption. An increase in runoff, and associated wash-off of animal faeces from fields, is assumed to contribute to the increase of disease outbreaks during periods of high precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation and extreme precipitation events during summer, but has simultaneously also other effects such as temperature rise and changes in evapotranspiration. The question is to what extent the combination of these effects influence the input of zoonotic pathogens to the surface waters. To quantitatively analyse the impacts of climate change on pathogen runoff, pathogen concentrations reaching surface waters through runoff were calculated by combining an input model for catchment pathogen loads with the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). Runoff of Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter was evaluated under different climate change scenarios and by applying different scenarios for sources of faecal pollution in the catchments, namely dairy cows and geese and manure fertilization. Model evaluation of these scenarios shows that climate change has little overall impact on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to the surface waters. Even though individual processes like runoff fluxes, pathogen release and dilution are affected, either positively or negatively, the net effect on the pathogen concentration in surface waters and consequently also on infection risks through recreation seems limited. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

NOAA's State Climate Summaries for the National Climate Assessment: A Sustained Assessment Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Champion, S.; Frankson, R.; Easterling, D. R.; Griffin, J.; Runkle, J. D.; Stevens, L. E.; Stewart, B. C.; Sun, L.; Veasey, S.

2016-12-01

A set of State Climate Summaries have been produced for all 50 U.S. states as part of the National Climate Assessment Sustained Assessment and represent a NOAA contribution to this process. Each summary includes information on observed and projected climate change conditions and impacts associated with future greenhouse gas emissions pathways. The summaries focus on the physical climate and coastal issues as a part of NOAA's mission. Core climate data and simulations used to produce these summaries have been previously published, and have been analyzed to represent a targeted synthesis of historical and plausible future climate conditions. As these are intended to be supplemental to major climate assessment development, the scope of the content remains true to a "summary" style document. Each state's Climate Summary includes its climatology and projections of future temperatures and precipitation, which are presented in order to provide a context for the assessment of future impacts. The climatological component focuses on temperature, precipitation, and noteworthy weather events specific to each state and relevant to the climate change discussion. Future climate scenarios are also briefly discussed, using well-known and consistent sets of climate model simulations based on two possible futures of greenhouse gas emissions. These future scenarios present an internally consistent climate picture for every state and are intended to inform the potential impacts of climate change. These 50 State Climate Summaries were produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the North Carolina State University Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC (CICS-NC) with additional input provided by climate experts, including the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and State Climatologists. Each summary document also underwent a comprehensive and anonymous peer review. Each summary contains text, figures, and an interactive web presentation. A full suite of the comprehensive analyses and metadata are also available. The audience is targeted as both decision-makers and informed non-scientists. This presentation will discuss the scientific development for the project, demonstrate the suite of information, and provide examples of noteworthy figures from select states.

Reduced sediment transport in the Chinese Loess Plateau due to climate change and human activities.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaonan; Sun, Wenyi; Li, Pengfei; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju

2018-06-14

The sediment load on the Chinese Loess Plateau has sharply decreased in recent years. However, the contribution of terrace construction and vegetation restoration projects to sediment discharge reduction remains uncertain. In this paper, eight catchments located in the Loess Plateau were chosen to explore the effects of different driving factors on sediment discharge changes during the period from the 1960s to 2012. Attribution approaches were applied to evaluate the effects of climate, terrace, and vegetation coverage changes on sediment discharge. The results showed that the annual sediment discharge decreased significantly in all catchments ranging from -0.007 to -0.039 Gt·yr -1 . Sediment discharge in most tributaries has shown abrupt changes since 1996, and the total sediment discharge was reduced by 60.1% during 1997-2012. We determined that increasing vegetation coverage was the primary factor driving the reductions in sediment loads since 1996 and accounted for 47.7% of the total reduction. Climate variability and terrace construction accounted for 9.1% and 18.6% of sediment discharge reductions, respectively. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments.

PubMed

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Sikorska, Anna E; Seibert, Jan

2018-03-01

Climate impact studies regarding floods usually focus on peak discharges and a bivariate assessment of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes is not commonly included. A joint consideration of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, however, is crucial when assessing flood risks for current and future climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology to develop synthetic design hydrographs for future climate conditions that jointly consider peak discharges and hydrograph volumes. First, change factors are derived based on a regional climate model and are applied to observed precipitation and temperature time series. Second, the modified time series are fed into a calibrated hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for future conditions. Third, these time series are used to construct synthetic design hydrographs. The bivariate flood frequency analysis used in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs takes into account the dependence between peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, and represents the shape of the hydrograph. The latter is modeled using a probability density function while the dependence between the design variables peak discharge and hydrograph volume is modeled using a copula. We applied this approach to a set of eight mountainous catchments in Switzerland to construct catchment-specific and season-specific design hydrographs for a control and three scenario climates. Our work demonstrates that projected climate changes have an impact not only on peak discharges but also on hydrograph volumes and on hydrograph shapes both at an annual and at a seasonal scale. These changes are not necessarily proportional which implies that climate impact assessments on future floods should consider more flood characteristics than just flood peaks. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Psycho-Cultural Analysis of Disaster Risk Attitudes in Situation Awareness

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

the American Geophysical Union called for greater resilience in facing such hazards which would curb damages and economic losses (Lewis, 2012). Most of...Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. Rugby , UK: Practical Action Publishing, ISBN 978-1-85339-786-8. UNISDR (2009). Terminology on Disaster Risk

Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2018-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models.

PubMed

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans.

PubMed

Hauser, Donna D W; Tobin, Elizabeth D; Feifel, Kirsten M; Shah, Vega; Pietri, Diana M

2016-01-01

Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate-driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10(7) km(2) , n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km(2) , n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate-related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate-related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate-driven ocean change. Our findings reveal that highly cited biological studies are rarely conducted on scales that match those of physical and chemical studies. Rather, we suggest a need for measuring responses at biologically relevant scales. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vegetation change and pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christie, M.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Clear, J.; Corbett, D. R.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

Vegetation changes related to anthropogenic and climatic change have been reconstructed at many locations. Synthesizing observations from multiple locations improves our understanding of the regionality of these impacts and drivers. Human alterations to the plant communities vary spatially in timing and impact. For example, deforestation occurred at different times, rates, and magnitudes along the Atlantic Coast of the United States, while of the introduction of non-native plants into ecosystems varies by region. Gradual climate shifts cause the appearance of migration in sensitive plants, so climate-related transitions can be traced from one location to another. Here, we combine new and published pollen data from Florida to Connecticut to produce a regional synthesis of vegetation changes for the last 1000 years. We have produced detailed reconstructions of vegetation changes in response to anthropogenic and climatic forcing. Our database contains pollen assemblages from more than 10 locations along the Atlantic coast of the United States, including new reconstructions from the Florida Keys, Delaware Estuary, and northern New Jersey. All pollen assemblages are placed in a geochronological framework with as fine as decadal resolution using composite chronologies of radiocarbon, pollution histories and cesium isotopes. Anthropogenic impacts, including deforestation from European settlement and the introduction of non-native plants, are observed in the pollen record and serve as useful markers of time. For example, the abrupt increase in Ambrosia pollen in the mid-Atlantic corresponds to 18th Century deforestation. Climate transitions that can be seen in the pollen record during the last millennium include the Medieval Climate Optimum, Little Ice Age, and human-induced warming following industrialization in the 20th century. Plant communities of the United States Atlantic Coast adapted to the evolving climate. For example, Picea and Tsuga are indicative of cooler, moister conditions and disappear from regions as conditions become warmer or drier. We combine the various histories of vegetation change from pollen assemblages into a single source for researchers to use when attempting to understand geochronology and impacts of climate change along the Atlantic coast of the United States.

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

PubMed

Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

2018-06-03

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling. © 2018 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Current trends in biodegradable polyhydroxyalkanoates.

PubMed

Chanprateep, Suchada

2010-12-01

The microbial polyesters known as polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) positively impact global climate change scenarios by reducing the amount of non-degradable plastic used. A wide variety of different monomer compositions of PHAs has been described, as well as their future prospects for applications where high biodegradability or biocompatibility is required. PHAs can be produced from renewable raw materials and are degraded naturally by microorganisms that enable carbon dioxide and organic compound recycling in the ecosystem, providing a buffer to climate change. This review summarizes recent research on PHAs and addresses the opportunities as well as challenges for their place in the global market. Copyright © 2010 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation in plant hydraulic traits and their relevance for climate change impacts on vegetation.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L

2015-02-01

Plant hydraulics mediate terrestrial woody plant productivity, influencing global water, carbon, and biogeochemical cycles, as well as ecosystem vulnerability to drought and climate change. While inter-specific differences in hydraulic traits are widely documented, intra-specific hydraulic variability is less well known and is important for predicting climate change impacts. Here, I present a conceptual framework for this intra-specific hydraulic trait variability, reviewing the mechanisms that drive variability and the consequences for vegetation response to climate change. I performed a meta-analysis on published studies (n = 33) of intra-specific variation in a prominent hydraulic trait - water potential at which 50% stem conductivity is lost (P50) - and compared this variation to inter-specific variability within genera and plant functional types used by a dynamic global vegetation model. I found that intra-specific variability is of ecologically relevant magnitudes, equivalent to c. 33% of the inter-specific variability within a genus, and is larger in angiosperms than gymnosperms, although the limited number of studies highlights that more research is greatly needed. Furthermore, plant functional types were poorly situated to capture key differences in hydraulic traits across species, indicating a need to approach prediction of drought impacts from a trait-based, rather than functional type-based perspective.

The complex relationship between personal sense of connection to animals and self-reported proenvironmental behaviors by zoo visitors.

PubMed

Grajal, Alejandro; Luebke, Jerry F; Kelly, Lisa-Anne DeGregoria; Matiasek, Jennifer; Clayton, Susan; Karazsia, Bryan T; Saunders, Carol D; Goldman, Susan R; Mann, Michael E; Stanoss, Ricardo

2017-04-01

The global biodiversity crisis requires an engaged citizenry that provides collective support for public policies and recognizes the consequences of personal consumption decisions. Understanding the factors that affect personal engagement in proenvironmental behaviors is essential for the development of actionable conservation solutions. Zoos and aquariums may be some of the only places where many people can explore their relations with wild animals and proenvironmental behaviors. Using a moderated-mediation analysis of a survey of U.S. zoo and aquarium visitors (n = 3588), we explored the relationship between the sense of connection to animals and self-reported engagement in proenvironmental behaviors related to climate change and how this relationship is affected by certainty that climate change is happening, level of concern about climate change, and perceptions of effectiveness in personally addressing climate change. We found a significant, directional relationship between sense of connection to animals and self-reported proenvironmental behaviors. Political inclination within the conservative to liberal spectrum did not affect the relationship. We conclude that a personal sense of connection to animals may provide a foundation for educational and communication strategies to enhance involvement in proenvironmental actions. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Has anthropogenic land-cover change been a significant climate forcing in the past? - An assessment for the Baltic Sea catchment area based on a literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kleinen, Thomas; Brigitte Nielsen, Anne; Poska, Anneli; Samuelsson, Patrick; Strandberg, Gustav; Trondman, Anna-Kari

2015-04-01

We reviewed the recent published scientific literature on land cover-climate interactions at the global and regional spatial scales with the aim to assess whether it is convincingly demonstrated that anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) has been (over the last centuries and millennia) a significant climate forcing at the global scale, and more specifically at the scale of the Baltic Sea catchment area. The conclusions from this review are as follows: i) anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response in the past is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects, and to the biogeochemical vs biogeophysical effects; ii) there is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback; iii) several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes; iv) palaeoecological studies indicate a major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the study region occurring between 6000 and 3000/2500 calendar years before present (cal. BP) (1) ; v) the only modelling study so far of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in Europe suggests that a deforestation of the magnitude of that reconstructed for the past (between 6000 and 200 cal BP) can produce changes in winter and summer temperatures of +/- 1°, the sign of the change depending on the season and the region (2). Thus, if ALCC and their biogeophysical effects did matter in the past, they should matter today and in the future. A still prevailing idea is that planting trees will mitigate climate warming through biogeochemical effects. Therefore, there is still an urgent need to better understand the biogeophysical effects on regional and continental climate of afforestation in the hemiboreal and boreal regions, and their significance in relation to the biogeochemical effects. (1) Trondman, A.-K. et al. (2014) Global Change Biology (2014), doi: 10.1111/gcb.12737 (2) Strandberg, G. et al. (2014) Climate of the Past 10, 661-680.

Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

2016-12-01

Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a larger increase in accuracy for SW cloud radiative forcing vs temperature, and from a lower confounding noise from natural variability in the cloud radiative forcing variable compared to temperature. In particular, global average temperature is much more sensitive to the climate noise of ENSO cycles.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

The Role of Internet Paleo Perspective Overviews in Making Data About Past Climate and Environmental Change More Accessible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, D. M.; Bauer, B. A.; Gille, E. P.; Gross, W. S.; Hartman, M. A.; Shah, A. M.; Woodhouse, C. A.

2005-12-01

The cornerstone of scientific discovery is the peer-reviewed journal article, yet for non-specialists these articles can be difficult to appreciate. Scientific writing and the sheer number of articles published each month compound the problem. At the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, a primary goal is to make published scientific results more accessible to non-specialists. In partnership with scientists, we have created Paleo Perspectives, online essays that provide an introduction to the scientific literature on a topic, background needed to appreciate the results, figures with detailed captions, photographs, short movies and visualizations, summaries, glossaries, direct links to the data, and links to additional information. The power and flexibility of the Internet enables us to provide and update this rich array of material. We have produced three paleo perspectives (global warming, drought, abrupt climate change), with a fourth in review (arctic climate variability). Web statistics indicate these are some of the Data Center`s most often-used web pages (more so for hot topics such as global warming), and awards and accolades indicate that the content is appreciated and on-target. Review by scientists assures the accuracy of the presentations, and newly-contributed data provide material for updates.

What drives the distribution of the bloom-forming cyanobacteria Planktothrix agardhii and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii?

PubMed

Bonilla, Sylvia; Aubriot, Luis; Soares, Maria Carolina S; González-Piana, Mauricio; Fabre, Amelia; Huszar, Vera L M; Lürling, Miquel; Antoniades, Dermot; Padisák, Judit; Kruk, Carla

2012-03-01

The cyanobacteria Planktothrix agardhii and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii are bloom-forming species common in eutrophic freshwaters. These filamentous species share certain physiological traits which imply that they might flourish under similar environmental conditions. We compared the distribution of the two species in a large database (940 samples) covering different climatic regions and the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and carried out laboratory experiments to compare their morphological and physiological responses. The environmental ranges of the two species overlapped with respect to temperature, light and total phosphorus (TP); however, they responded differently to environmental gradients; C. raciborskii biovolume changed gradually while P. agardhii shifted sharply from being highly dominated to a rare component of the phytoplankton. As expected, P. agardhii dominates the phytoplankton with high TP and low light availability conditions. Contrary to predictions, C. raciborskii succeeded in all climates and at temperatures as low as 11 °C. Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii had higher phenotypic plasticity than P. agardhii in terms of pigments, individual size and growth rates. We conclude that the phenotypic plasticity of C. raciborskii could explain its ongoing expansion to temperate latitudes and suggest its future predominance under predicted climate-change scenarios. © 2011 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Adaptation is About More Than Climate: Value-Driven Science Delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.

2015-12-01

Efforts to deliver relevant scientific information and tools to diverse stakeholders have dramatically increased in recent years with the intention of promoting climate change adaptation. Much work has been done to understand the barriers to action, but these largely overlook the need to frame the discussion in terms of stakeholder values and co-create innovative solutions that meet their individual needs. A partnership-based effort in the upper Midwest and Northeast called the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF; www.forestadaptation.org) ensures relevance, breadth, and credibility of its products through stakeholder inclusion at all levels. The fundamental role of the CCRF is to help people meet their land stewardship goals while minimizing climate risk. This represents a subtle but important shift in focus to people and their values, as opposed to climate change and its effects. The CCRF uses a climate planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), along with ecosystem vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit conservation objectives. These tools are integrated into an Adaptation Planning and Practices workshop that leads organizations through this structured process of designing adaptation tactics for their projects and plans. All of these tools were developed with stakeholders, or in response to their direct and continuing feedback. The CCRF has involved thousands of people and over 100 organizations, published six ecoregional vulnerability assessments with more than 130 authors, and generated more than 125 intentional adaptation demonstrations in real-world land management projects on federal, state, tribal, county, conservancy, and private lands. The CCRF contributes strongly to the USDA Regional Climate Hubs, working on the applied end of the continuum of climate services occupied by providers such as the CSCs, LCCs, RISAs, and RCCs.

Development and sustainability of NSF-funded climate change education efforts: lessons learned and strategies used to develop the Reconstructing Earth's Climate History (REaCH) curriculum (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, K. K.; Jones, M. H.; Leckie, R. M.; Pound, K. S.; Krissek, L. A.

2013-12-01

The context for understanding modern global climate change lies in the records of Earth's past. This is demonstrated by decades of paleoclimate research by scientists in organizations such as IODP and ANDRILL, yet making that science accessible to educators has been a long-standing challenge. Furthermore, content transfer is not enough; in science education, addressing how we know is as important as addressing what we know about science. To that end, our initial NSF-CCLI/TUES objective of Teaching Anchor Concepts of Climate Change (NSF #0737335) was to put authentic data and published case studies of past climate change at students' fingertips in a series of 7 multipart inquiry-based exercise modules for undergraduate classroom and lab use. After 4 years of funding (incl. 2 no-cost extensions) we surpassed our project objective and established an avenue for sustainability that is proving successful. The purpose of this presentation is to share (1) the process by which we developed the curriculum and (2) the strategies used to ensure sustainability. The curriculum development process reflected many of the same successful strategies used in scientific research. It drew on the knowledge and skills of the team; it was collaborative, iterative, and primarily distributive, yet at times directive. The team included paleoclimate researchers and educators from a broad range of undergraduate institutions. We evaluated published data from scientific reports and peer-reviewed journal articles, and used these as the foundation for writing curriculum that was data-rich and inquiry-based. In total 14 multipart exercise modules were developed. The feedback from early and frequent meeting presentations, from formative evaluation by students in courses and by faculty in workshops, and from peer-review by paleoclimate scientists and undergraduate educators helped us fine-tune the materials to the needs of the education and paleoclimate science communities. It additionally helped us develop detailed instructor guides to accompany each module. After careful consideration of dissemination options, we choose to publish the full suite of exercise modules as a commercially-available book, Reconstructing Earth's Climate History, while also providing open online access to a subset of modules. Its current use in undergraduate paleoclimatology courses, and the availability of select modules for use in other courses demonstrate that creative, hybrid options can be found for lasting dissemination, and thus sustainability. In achieving our goal of making science accessible, we believe we have followed a curriculum development process and sustainability path that can be used by others to meet needs in earth, ocean, and atmospheric science education. Next steps for REaCH include exploration of its use in blended learning classrooms, and at minority serving institutions.

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-04-05

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago - Svalbard, Norway.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Aars, Jon; Fuglei, Eva; Kovacs, Kit M; Lydersen, Christian; Pavlova, Olga; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Ravolainen, Virve; Strøm, Hallvard

2017-02-01

The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of 'rain-on-snow' events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore-predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long-term (multidecadal) demographic, population- and ecosystem-based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How Climate Science got to be in the Next Generation Science Standards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wysession, M. E.

2013-12-01

Climate science plays a prominent role in the new national K-12 Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). This represents the culmination of a significant amount of effort by many different organizations that have worked hard to educate the public on one of the most interesting, complex, complicated, and societally important aspects of geoscience. While there are significant challenges to the full implementation of the NGSS, especially those aspects that relate to climate change, the fact that so many states are currently adopting the NGSS represents a significant milestone in geoscience education. When grade 6-12 textbooks were written ten years ago, such as Pearson's high school Physical Science: Concepts in Action (Wysession et al., 2004), very little mention of climate change was incorporated because it did not appear in state standards. Now, climate and climate change are an integral part of the middle school and high school NGSS standards, and textbook companies are fully incorporating this content into their programs. There are many factors that have helped the shift toward teaching about climate, such as the IPCC report, Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth,' and the many reports on climate change published by the National Research Council (NRC). However, four major community-driven literacy documents (The Essential Principles of Ocean Science, Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Atmospheric Science Literacy, The Earth Science Literacy Principles, and The Essential Principles of Climate Science) were essential in that they directly informed the construction of the Earth and Space Science (ESS) content of the NRC's 'Framework for K-12 Science Education' by the ESS Design Team. The actual performance expectations of the NGSS were then informed directly by the disciplinary core ideas of the NRC Framework, which were motivated by the community-driven literacy documents and the significant credentials these bore. The work in getting climate science into classrooms has just begun: having standards that address climate science does not ensure that it will reach students. However, the fact that climate science plays an important role in the nation's first attempt at a national K-12 science program represents a significant advancement.

How Climate Science got to be in the Next Generation Science Standards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westnedge, K. L.; Dallimore, A.; Salish Sea Expedition Team

2011-12-01

Climate science plays a prominent role in the new national K-12 Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). This represents the culmination of a significant amount of effort by many different organizations that have worked hard to educate the public on one of the most interesting, complex, complicated, and societally important aspects of geoscience. While there are significant challenges to the full implementation of the NGSS, especially those aspects that relate to climate change, the fact that so many states are currently adopting the NGSS represents a significant milestone in geoscience education. When grade 6-12 textbooks were written ten years ago, such as Pearson's high school Physical Science: Concepts in Action (Wysession et al., 2004), very little mention of climate change was incorporated because it did not appear in state standards. Now, climate and climate change are an integral part of the middle school and high school NGSS standards, and textbook companies are fully incorporating this content into their programs. There are many factors that have helped the shift toward teaching about climate, such as the IPCC report, Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth,' and the many reports on climate change published by the National Research Council (NRC). However, four major community-driven literacy documents (The Essential Principles of Ocean Science, Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Atmospheric Science Literacy, The Earth Science Literacy Principles, and The Essential Principles of Climate Science) were essential in that they directly informed the construction of the Earth and Space Science (ESS) content of the NRC's 'Framework for K-12 Science Education' by the ESS Design Team. The actual performance expectations of the NGSS were then informed directly by the disciplinary core ideas of the NRC Framework, which were motivated by the community-driven literacy documents and the significant credentials these bore. The work in getting climate science into classrooms has just begun: having standards that address climate science does not ensure that it will reach students. However, the fact that climate science plays an important role in the nation's first attempt at a national K-12 science program represents a significant advancement.

Research issues in grazing lands under changing climate. Volume 12, Part 16. Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pendleton, D.F.; Van Dyne, G.M.

1982-12-01

A study has been made of issues and researchable questions regarding the influence of potential CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change on grazing lands. Generalized scenarios of possible changes in climate in grazing land regions of the world were constructed based on published and ongoing investigations. These studies were of two general types: (i) general circulation climate, and (ii) analyses of historical data for periods which were warmer than average current conditions, based on the assumption that global warming can be expected. A review of scenarios derived from recent research suggests that surface temperature may increase and precipitation may decrease in somemore » important grazing land regions of the world. Research needs related specifically to climate in grazing lands were discussed. In the second workship, scientists discussed individual abiotic, autotrophic, and heterotrophic processes. Potential studies of these processes which were discussed included (i) work in the laboratory and the field, (ii) modelling, and (iii) analysis and synthesis of existing data bases and scientific literature. Both biological and socio-economic issues were discussed. Several overall conclusions were derived including the following: a planned, time-phased, and integrated study would be desirable to obtain the greatest amount of information for the least amount of funding in future investigations; a relatively small interdisciplinary group should be assembled consisting of individuals with backgrounds in such areas as meteorology, plant ecology, animal ecology, range science, economics, sociology, and systems analysis, and should operate over perhaps 10 years and draw upon specific short-term contractual inputs.« less

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

PubMed

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-02-27

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

PubMed

Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

2016-03-01

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Assessing response of sediment load variation to climate change and human activities with six different approaches.

PubMed

Zhao, Guangju; Mu, Xingmin; Jiao, Juying; Gao, Peng; Sun, Wenyi; Li, Erhui; Wei, Yanhong; Huang, Jiacong

2018-05-23

Understanding the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to variations in sediment load is of great importance for regional soil, and river basin management. Considerable studies have investigated spatial-temporal variation of sediment load within the Loess Plateau; however, contradictory findings exist among methods used. This study systematically reviewed six quantitative methods: simple linear regression, double mass curve, sediment identity factor analysis, dam-sedimentation based method, the Sediment Delivery Distributed (SEDD) model, and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The calculation procedures and merits for each method were systematically explained. A case study in the Huangfuchuan watershed on the northern Loess Plateau has been undertaken. The results showed that sediment load had been reduced by 70.5% during the changing period from 1990 to 2012 compared to that of the baseline period from 1955 to 1989. Human activities accounted for an average of 93.6 ± 4.1% of the total decline in sediment load, whereas climate change contributed 6.4 ± 4.1%. Five methods produced similar estimates, but the linear regression yielded relatively different results. The results of this study provide a good reference for assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variation by using different methods. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

PubMed

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Long-term change in a behavioural trait: truncated spawning distribution and demography in Northeast Arctic cod.

PubMed

Opdal, Anders Frugård; Jørgensen, Christian

2015-04-01

Harvesting may be a potent driver of demographic change and contemporary evolution, which both may have great impacts on animal populations. Research has focused on changes in phenotypic traits that are easily quantifiable and for which time series exist, such as size, age, sex, or gonad size, whereas potential changes in behavioural traits have been under-studied. Here, we analyse potential drivers of long-term changes in a behavioural trait for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, namely choice of spawning location. For 104 years (1866-1969), commercial catches were recorded annually and reported by county along the Norwegian coast. During this time period, spawning ground distribution has fluctuated with a trend towards more northerly spawning. Spawning location is analysed against a suite of explanatory factors including climate, fishing pressure, density dependence, and demography. We find that demography (age or age at maturation) had the highest explanatory power for variation in spawning location, while climate had a limited effect below statistical significance. As to potential mechanisms, some effects of climate may act through demography, and explanatory variables for demography may also have absorbed direct evolutionary change in migration distance for which proxies were unavailable. Despite these caveats, we argue that fishing mortality, either through demographic or evolutionary change, has served as an effective driver for changing spawning locations in cod, and that additional explanatory factors related to climate add no significant information. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of pioneers as indicators of biogeographic range expansion caused by global change in southern African coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, Alan K.; James, Nicola C.; Lamberth, Stephen J.; Adams, Janine B.; Perissinotto, Renzo; Rajkaran, Anusha; Bornman, Thomas G.

2016-04-01

The South African coastline is just over 3000 km in length yet it covers three major biogeographic regions, namely subtropical, warm temperate and cool temperate. In this review we examine published information to assess the possible role of climate change in driving distributional changes of a wide variety of organisms around the subcontinent. In particular we focus on harmful algal blooms, seaweeds, eelgrass, mangroves, salt marsh plants, foraminiferans, stromatolites, corals, squid, zooplankton, zoobenthos, fish, birds, crocodiles and hippopotamus, but also refer to biota such as pathogens, coralline algae, jellyfish and otters. The role of pioneers or propagules as indicators of an incipient range expansion are discussed, with mangroves, zoobenthos, fishes and birds providing the best examples of actual and imminent distributional changes. The contraction of the warm temperate biogeographic region, arising from the intrusion of cool upwelled waters along the Western Cape shores, and increasingly warm Agulhas Current waters penetrating along the eastern parts of the subcontinent, are highlighted. The above features provide an ideal setting for the monitoring of biotic drivers and responses to global climate change over different spatial and temporal scales, and have direct relevance to similar studies being conducted elsewhere in the world. We conclude that, although this review focuses mainly on the impact of global climate change on South African coastal biodiversity, other anthropogenic drivers of change such as introduced alien invasive species may act synergistically with climate change, thereby compounding both short and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of indigenous species.

A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

2012-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added in the ecosystems-climate system since they play an essential role in human decisions on land use and land cover change (LULCC).

Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

2017-07-01

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Relative benefit of a stage of change approach for the prevention of musculoskeletal pain and discomfort: a cluster randomised trial.

PubMed

Doda, Diana; Rothmore, Paul; Pisaniello, Dino; Briggs, Nancy; Stewart, Sasha; Mahmood, Mohammed; Hiller, Janet E

2015-11-01

To examine the benefit of a psychological Stage of Change (SOC) approach, relative to standard ergonomics advice, for the prevention of work-related musculoskeletal pain and discomfort (MSPD). A cluster randomised trial was conducted in South Australia across a broad range of workplaces. Repeated face-to-face interviews were conducted onsite to assess MSPD, safety climate, job satisfaction and other factors. Changes in MSPD across intervention groups and time were investigated using Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE) methods. 25 workgroups (involving 242 workers) were randomly allocated to either a standard intervention or an intervention tailored according to SOC. The prevalence of MSPD increased for both groups, but was only significant for the standard group, in respect of lower back MSPD. Workers receiving tailored interventions were 60% less likely to experience lower back MSPD. After adjusting for age, gender and job satisfaction, it was found that company safety climate and length of employment were significantly correlated to the time-intervention effect. There was no correlation with workload. Compared with standard ergonomics advice to management, there was evidence of a benefit of stage-matched intervention for MSPD prevention, particularly for low back pain. Organisational safety climate should be taken into account when planning prevention programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Climate science, truth, and democracy.

PubMed

Keller, Evelyn Fox

2017-08-01

This essay was written almost ten years ago when the urgency of America's failure as a nation to respond to the threats of climate change first came to preoccupy me. Although the essay was never published in full, I circulated it informally in an attempt to provoke a more public engagement among my colleagues in the history, philosophy, and sociology of science. In particular, it was written in almost direct response to Philip Kitcher's own book, Science, Truth and Democracy (2001), in an attempt to clarify what was special about Climate Science in its relation to truth and democracy. Kitcher's response was immensely encouraging, and it led to an extended dialogue that resulted, first, in a course we co-taught at Columbia University, and later, to the book The Seasons Alter: How to Save Our Planet in Six Acts (W. W. Norton) published this spring. The book was finished just after the Paris Climate Accord, and it reflects the relative optimism of that moment. Unfortunately events since have begun to evoke, once again, the darker mood of this essay. I am grateful to Greg Radick for suggesting its publication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long History of IAM Comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2015-04-23

Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupledmore » atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.« less

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain.

PubMed

Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Baumhauer, Roland; Schütt, Brigitta

2011-02-01

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. In the Gallocanta Basin, climate change and the distinct and continuing land use change since Spain joined the EU in 1986 have created an environment that is in a more or less constant state of transition. This highlights two challenges faced by hydrologists and climatologists involved in developing water management tools for the Gallocanta Basin in particular, but also other areas with sensitive and rapidly changing environments. Hydrologists have to understand the processes and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface-climate interaction in a watershed to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrology. Climatologists, on the other hand, have to develop climate models which provide the appropriate output data, such as reliable information on rainfall characteristics relevant for environmental management. Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

PubMed

Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

2014-06-01

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Central Asian sand seas climate change as inferred from OSL dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maman, Shimrit; Tsoar, Haim; Blumberg, Dan; Porat, Naomi

2014-05-01

Luminescence dating techniques have become more accessible, widespread, more accurate and support studies of climate change. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is used to determine the time elapsed since quartz grains were last exposed to sunlight, before they were buried and the dune stabilized. Many sand seas have been dated extensively by luminescence, e.g., the Kalahari, Namib the Australian linear dunes and the northwestern Negev dune field, Israel. However, no ages were published so far from the central Asian sand seas. The lack of dune stratigraphy and numerical ages precluded any reliable assessment of the paleoclimatic significance of dunes in central Asia. Central Asian Sand seas (ergs) have accumulated in the Turan basin, north-west of the Hindu Kush range, and span from south Turkmenistan to the Syr-Darya River in Kazakhstan. These ergs are dissected by the Amu-Darya River; to its north lies the Kyzylkum (red sands) and to its south lies the Karakum (black sands). Combined, they form one of the largest sand seas in the world. This area is understudied, and little information has been published regarding the sands stabilization processes and deposition ages. In this study, OSL ages for the Karakum and Kyzylkum sands are presented and analysis of the implications of these results is provided. Optical dates obtained in this study are used to study the effects climatic changes had on the mobility and stability of the central Asian sand seas. Optically stimulated luminescence ages derived from the upper meter of the interdune of 14 exposed sections from both ergs, indicate extensive sand and dune stabilization during the mid-Holocene. This stabilization is understood to reflect a transition to a warmer, wetter, and less windy climate that generally persisted until today. The OSL ages, coupled with a compilation of regional paleoclimatic data, corroborate and reinforce the previously proposed Mid-Holocene Liavliakan phase, known to reflect a warmer, wetter, and less windy climate that persists until today and resulted in dune stabilization around the Mid-Holocene. This study, solidifies our results regarding the Kyzylkum and Karakum sand seas dynamics, ages, and emphasizes the importance of regional climatic control on aeolian activity.

Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

2009-12-01

Based on a series of international scientific assessments, climate change has been presented to society as a major problem that needs urgently to be tackled. The science that underpins these assessments has been pre-dominantly from the realm of the natural sciences and central to this framing have been ‘projections’ of future climate change (and its impacts on environment and society) under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and using a variety of climate model predictions with embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision makers need accurate and increasingly precise assessments of future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. If true, this claim places a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales; such predictions therefore become indispensable, and indeed a prerequisite for, effective adaptation decision-making. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? If so, this may impose a serious and intractable limit on adaptation. This paper proceeds in three sections. It first gathers evidence of claims that climate prediction is necessary for adaptation decision-making. This evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy in a number of different countries. The second part discusses the challenges of climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide accurate and precise predictions of future climate relevant for adaptation (usually at the local/regional level). Section three discusses whether these limits to future foresight represent a limit to adaptation, arguing that effective adaptation need not be limited by a general inability to predict future climate. Given the deep uncertainties involved in climate prediction (and even more so in the prediction of climate impacts) and given that climate is usually only one factor in decisions aimed at climate adaptation, we conclude that the ‘predict and provide’ approach to science in support of climate change adaptation is largely flawed. We consider other important areas of public policy fraught with uncertainty - e.g. earthquake risk, national security, public health - where such a ‘predict and provide’ approach is not attempted. Instead of relying on an approach which has climate prediction (and consequent risk assessment) at its heart - which because of the associated epistemological limits to prediction will consequently act as an apparent limit to adaptation - we need to view adaptation differently, in a manner that opens up options for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest an approach which examines the robustness of adaptation strategies/policies/activities to the myriad of uncertainties that face us in the future, only one of which is the state of climate.

Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

PubMed

Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

2012-10-01

Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tracking the impact of mid- to late Holocene climate change and anthropogenic activities on Lake Holzmaar using an updated Holocene chronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Sushma; Baier, Janina

2014-11-01

The mid- to late Holocene interval is characterised by a highly variable climate in response to a gradual change in orbital insolation. The seasonal impact of these changes on the Eifel Maar region is not yet well documented largely due to uncertainties about the completeness of this archive ("missing varves" in the well known Lake Holzmaar) and a limited understanding of the factors (e.g. temperature, precipitation) influencing the seasonality archived within the lamination/varves. In this study we approach these challenges from a different perspective. Using detailed microfacies investigations we: (1) demonstrate that the ambiguity about the "missing varves" is related to the climate induced complex biotic and abiotic laminations that led to mis-identification of varves; (2) use a combination of detailed microfacies investigations (varve structure, seasonality of biotic and abiotic signals), lamination quality, varve counts on multiple cores, published and new radiocarbon dates to develop a continuous master chronology based on the Bayesian modelling approach. The dates of major climate, volcanic, and archaeological event(s) determined using our model are in good agreement with the independently determined ages of the same events from other archives, confirming the accuracy of our age model; (3) test the sensitivity of the seasonal proxies to the available data on mid-Holocene changes in temperature and precipitation; (4) demonstrate that the changes in lake eutrophicity are correlative with temperature changes in NW Europe and probably triggered by solar variability; and (5) show that the early Iron Age onset of eutrophication in Lake Holzmaar was climate induced and began several decades before the impact of anthropogenic activity was seen in the form of intensified detrital erosion in the catchment area. Our work has implications for understanding the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on limnological systems.

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-06-01

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Environmental and Ecological Effects of Climate Change on Venomous Marine and Amphibious Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy B

2018-06-25

Recent analyses of data show a warming trend in global average air and sea surface ocean temperatures. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, the sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. This article will focus on climate change and projected effects on venomous marine and amphibious creatures with the potential impact on human health. Retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous aquatic and amphibious creatures. Species included venomous jellyfish, poisonous fish, crown-of-thorns starfish, sea snakes, and toxic frogs. In several projected scenarios, rising temperatures, weather extremes, and shifts in seasons will increase poisonous population numbers, particularly with certain marine creatures like jellyfish and crown-of-thorns starfish. Habitat expansions by lionfish and sea snakes are projected to occur. These phenomena, along with increases in human populations and coastal development will likely increase human-animal encounters. Other species, particularly amphibious toxic frogs, are declining rapidly due to their sensitivity to any temperature change or subtle alterations in the stability of their environment. If temperatures continue to rise to record levels over the next decades, it is predicted that the populations of these once plentiful and critically important animals to the aquatic ecosystem will decline and their geographic distributions will shrink. Review of the literature investigating the effect and forecasts of climate change on venomous marine and amphibious creatures has demonstrated that temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms will likely have a dramatic effect on these toxicological organisms. The effects of climate change on these species through temperature alteration and rising coastal waters will influence each species differently and in turn potentially affect commercial industries, travel, tourism, and human health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Schierenbeck, Kristina A

2017-01-01

Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Kahilainen, Aapo; van Nouhuys, Saskya; Schulz, Torsti; Saastamoinen, Marjo

2018-04-23

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

PubMed

Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

2015-12-01

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Little evidence for fire-adapted plant traits in Mediterranean climate regions.

PubMed

Bradshaw, S Don; Dixon, Kingsley W; Hopper, Stephen D; Lambers, Hans; Turner, Shane R

2011-02-01

As climate change increases vegetation combustibility, humans are impacted by wildfires through loss of lives and property, leading to an increased emphasis on prescribed burning practices to reduce hazards. A key and pervading concept accepted by most environmental managers is that combustible ecosystems have traditionally burnt because plants are fire adapted. In this opinion article, we explore the concept of plant traits adapted to fire in Mediterranean climates. In the light of major threats to biodiversity conservation, we recommend caution in deliberately increasing fire frequencies if ecosystem degradation and plant extinctions are to be averted as a result of the practice. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.;

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2016-01-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle A.

2016-03-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Climate Envelope Modeling and Dispersal Simulations Show Little Risk of Range Extension of the Shipworm, Teredo navalis (L.), in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Appelqvist, Christin; Al-Hamdani, Zyad K.; Jonsson, Per R.; Havenhand, Jon N.

2015-01-01

The shipworm, Teredo navalis, is absent from most of the Baltic Sea. In the last 20 years, increased frequency of T. navalis has been reported along the southern Baltic Sea coasts of Denmark, Germany, and Sweden, indicating possible range-extensions into previously unoccupied areas. We evaluated the effects of historical and projected near-future changes in salinity, temperature, and oxygen on the risk of spread of T. navalis in the Baltic. Specifically, we developed a simple, GIS-based, mechanistic climate envelope model to predict the spatial distribution of favourable conditions for adult reproduction and larval metamorphosis of T. navalis, based on published environmental tolerances to these factors. In addition, we used a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrographic model to simulate the probability of spread of T. navalis larvae within the study area. Climate envelope modeling showed that projected near-future climate change is not likely to change the overall distribution of T. navalis in the region, but will prolong the breeding season and increase the risk of shipworm establishment at the margins of the current range. Dispersal simulations indicated that the majority of larvae were philopatric, but those that spread over a wider area typically spread to areas unfavourable for their survival. Overall, therefore, we found no substantive evidence for climate-change related shifts in the distribution of T. navalis in the Baltic Sea, and no evidence for increased risk of spread in the near-future. PMID:25768305

Naukaoklimacie.pl: Between Science Blog and Mythbuster.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowski, S. P.; Popkiewicz, M.; Kardaś, A.; Bielewicz, A.

2015-12-01

"Naukaoklimacie" is a Polish fellow of a well known portal SkepticalScience.com. The name is a quibble. This cluster of two Polish words can be translated into English as "Climate Science" or "Science about Climate". Naukaoklimacie.pl and the associate Facebook page is an ongoing, over two years old project, aimed at providing Polish-speaking community fundamentals of climate science. Itgives insight into the recent climate science achievements, rebutts climate misinformation and busts climate myths. During two years of activity we published over 250 texts, our Facebook page has over 4k fans and results in 4-12 thousands post reach week-to-week, the mainpage articles are quoted in press and used as reading texts for students. Unlike in many countries, in Poland there is a real problem in finding a trustworthy information on climate change and science behind it. Neither universities, nor governmental agencies present climate science to Polish society. Naukaoklimacie.pl fills this gap in an unique way. Editorial group of the portal consists of two atmospheric scientists, a physicist and the professional journalist and is supported by a scientific council, consisting of 14 active scientists specializing in various aspects of climate, atmosphere, biodiversity, atmospheric chemistry e.t.c.. All the texts published in the webpage are consulted with scientists - specialists in the subject of the text, usually from the scientific council, sometimes by the external specialists. All the texts provide links to the original scientific publications. Naukaoklimacie.pl is not only an internet activity. We meet people on Festivals of Science, Science Open Days. We exist also in the mainstream media the editors and the scientific councils were interviewed by press and TV.

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

2017-11-01

Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

Climate change triggers effects of fungal pathogens and insect herbivores on litter decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butenschoen, Olaf; Scheu, Stefan

2014-10-01

Increasing infestation by insect herbivores and pathogenic fungi in response to climate change will inevitably impact the amount and quality of leaf litter inputs into the soil. However, little is known on the interactive effect of infestation severity and climate change on litter decomposition, and no such study has been published for deciduous forests in Central Europe. We assessed changes in initial chemical quality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and maple litter (Acer platanoides L.) in response to infestation by the gall midge Mikiola fagi Hart. and the pathogenic fungus Sawadaea tulasnei Fuckel, respectively, and investigated interactive effects of infestation severity, changes in temperature and soil moisture on carbon mineralization in a short-term laboratory study. We found that infestation by the gall midge M. fagi and the pathogenic fungus S. tulasnei significantly changed the chemical quality of beech and maple litter. Changes in element concentrations were generally positive and more pronounced, and if negative less pronounced for maple than beech litter most likely due to high quality fungal tissue remaining on litter after abscission. More importantly, alterations in litter chemical quality did not translate to distinct patterns of carbon mineralization at ambient conditions, but even low amounts of infested litter accelerated carbon mineralization at moderately increased soil moisture and in particular at higher temperature. Our results indicate that insect herbivores and fungal pathogens can markedly alter initial litter chemical quality, but that afterlife effects on carbon mineralization depend on soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that increased infestation severity under projected climate change potentially increases soil carbon release in deciduous forests in Central Europe.

European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

2010-09-01

Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its development in 2010 and is likely to manage the system after 2011. The European Commission in its Communication in 2009 on disaster risk prevention also calls for improving and better sharing of data on disasters, disaster risk mapping and disaster risk management, in the context of the EU civil protection mechanism. Such information might also be linked to the planned EU Clearinghouse on climate change adaptation. The activities of EEA on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (including disaster risk reduction) include indicators of the impacts of climate change; a regularly updated overview of national assessments and adaptation plans on the EEA web site and specific focused reports, e.g. on adaptation to the challenges of changing water resources in the Alps (2009) and on analysis of past trends in natural disasters (due in 2010) and regular expert meetings and workshops with EEA member countries. The ECAC presentation will include the latest developments in the EU Clearinghouse on adaptation and progress in relevant EEA activities.

Impact of rewilding, species introductions and climate change on the structure and function of the Yukon boreal forest ecosystem.

PubMed

Boonstra, Rudy; Boutin, Stan; Jung, Thomas S; Krebs, Charles J; Taylor, Shawn

2018-03-01

Community and ecosystem changes are happening in the pristine boreal forest ecosystem of the Yukon for 2 reasons. First, climate change is affecting the abiotic environment (temperature, rainfall and growing season) and driving changes in plant productivity and predator-prey interactions. Second, simultaneously change is occurring because of mammal species reintroductions and rewilding. The key ecological question is the impact these faunal changes will have on trophic dynamics. Primary productivity in the boreal forest is increasing because of climatic warming, but plant species composition is unlikely to change significantly during the next 50-100 years. The 9-10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares will persist but could be reduced in amplitude if winter weather increases predator hunting efficiency. Small rodents have increased in abundance because of increased vegetation growth. Arctic ground squirrels have disappeared from the forest because of increased predator hunting efficiency associated with shrub growth. Reintroductions have occurred for 2 reasons: human reintroductions of large ungulates and natural recolonization of mammals and birds extending their geographic ranges. The deliberate rewilding of wood bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus canadensis) has changed the trophic structure of this boreal ecosystem very little. The natural range expansion of mountain lions (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and American marten (Martes americana) should have few ecosystem effects. Understanding potential changes will require long-term monitoring studies and experiments on a scale we rarely deem possible. Ecosystems affected by climate change, species reintroductions and human alteration of habitats cannot remain stable and changes will be critically dependent on food web interactions. © 2017 The Authors. Integrative Zoology published by International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

From cold to hot: Climatic effects and productivity in Wisconsin dairy farms.

PubMed

Qi, L; Bravo-Ureta, B E; Cabrera, V E

2015-12-01

This study examined the effects of climatic conditions on dairy farm productivity using panel data for the state of Wisconsin along with alternative stochastic frontier models. A noteworthy feature of this analysis is that Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing area where winters are typically very cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid. Thus, it is an ideal geographical region for examining the effects of a range of climatic factors on dairy production. We identified the effects of temperature and precipitation, both jointly and separately, on milk output. The analysis showed that increasing temperature in summer or in autumn is harmful for dairy production, whereas warmer winters and warmer springs are beneficial. In contrast, more precipitation had a consistent adverse effect on dairy productivity. Overall, the analysis showed that over the past 17 yr, changes in climatic conditions have had a negative effect on Wisconsin dairy farms. Alternative scenarios predict that climate change would lead to a 5 to 11% reduction in dairy production per year between 2020 and 2039 after controlling for other factors. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and response to climate change in the Roaring River valley, Front Range, Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madole, Richard F.

2012-01-01

Stratigraphic analyses and radiocarbon geochronology of alluvial deposits exposed along the Roaring River, Colorado, lead to three principal conclusions: (1) the opinion that stream channels in the higher parts of the Front Range are relics of the Pleistocene and nonalluvial under the present climate, as argued in a water-rights trial USA v. Colorado, is untenable, (2) beds of clast-supported gravel alternate in vertical succession with beds of fine-grained sediment (sand, mud, and peat) in response to centennial-scale changes in snowmelt-driven peak discharges, and (3) alluvial strata provide information about Holocene climate history that complements the history provided by cirque moraines, periglacial deposits, and paleontological data. Most alluvial strata are of late Holocene age and record, among other things, that: (1) the largest peak flows since the end of the Pleistocene occurred during the late Holocene; (2) the occurrence of a mid- to late Holocene interval (~2450–1630(?) cal yr BP) of warmer climate, which is not clearly identified in palynological records; and (3) the Little Ice Age climate seems to have had little impact on stream channels, except perhaps for minor (~1 m) incision. Published

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, Lucia; Caporaso, Luca; Marconi, Sergio; Cescatti, Alessandro; Quesada, Benjamin; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; House, Johanna I.; Arneth, Almut

2017-05-01

Anthropogenic land cover changes (LCC) affect regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. This change in surface energy budget may exacerbate or counteract biogeochemical greenhouse gas effects of LCC, with a large body of emerging assessments being produced, sometimes apparently contradictory. We reviewed the existing scientific literature with the objective to provide an overview of the state-of-the-knowledge of the biophysical LCC climate effects, in support of the assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies. Out of the published studies that were analyzed, 28 papers fulfilled the eligibility criteria, providing surface air temperature and/or precipitation change with respect to LCC regionally and/or globally. We provide a synthesis of the signal, magnitude and uncertainty of temperature and precipitation changes in response to LCC biophysical effects by climate region (boreal/temperate/tropical) and by key land cover transitions. Model results indicate that a modification of biophysical processes at the land surface has a strong regional climate effect, and non-negligible global impact on temperature. Simulations experiments of large-scale (i.e. complete) regional deforestation lead to a mean reduction in precipitation in all regions, while air surface temperature increases in the tropics and decreases in boreal regions. The net global climate effects of regional deforestation are less certain. There is an overall consensus in the model experiments that the average global biophysical climate response to complete global deforestation is atmospheric cooling and drying. Observed estimates of temperature change following deforestation indicate a smaller effect than model-based regional estimates in boreal regions, comparable results in the tropics, and contrasting results in temperate regions. Regional/local biophysical effects following LCC are important for local climate, water cycle, ecosystems, their productivity and biodiversity, and thus important to consider in the formulation of adaptation policy. However before considering the inclusion of biophysical climate effects of LCC under the UNFCCC, science has to provide robust tools and methods for estimation of both country and global level effects.

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Greenwood, Owen; Mossman, Hannah L; Suggitt, Andrew J; Curtis, Robin J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-06-01

Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications . The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved.

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Caldeira, Ken; Keith, David W

2014-12-28

Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a tool that might reduce damage from anthropogenic climate change. Analysis often assumes that geoengineering would be used to maintain a constant global mean temperature. Under this scenario, geoengineering would be required either indefinitely (on societal time scales) or until atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sufficiently reduced. Impacts of climate change, however, are related to the rate of change as well as its magnitude. We thus describe an alternative scenario in which solar geoengineering is used only to constrain the rate of change of global mean temperature; this leads to a finite deployment period for any emissions pathway that stabilizes global mean temperature. The length of deployment and amount of geoengineering required depends on the emissions pathway and allowable rate of change, e.g. in our simulations, reducing the maximum approximately 0.3°C per decade rate of change in an RCP 4.5 pathway to 0.1°C per decade would require geoengineering for 160 years; under RCP 6.0, the required time nearly doubles. We demonstrate that feedback control can limit rates of change in a climate model. Finally, we note that a decision to terminate use of solar geoengineering does not automatically imply rapid temperature increases: feedback could be used to limit rates of change in a gradual phase-out. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications.

PubMed

Jones, Casey A; Daehler, Curtis C

2018-01-01

Studies in plant phenology have provided some of the best evidence for large-scale responses to recent climate change. Over the last decade, more than thirty studies have used herbarium specimens to analyze changes in flowering phenology over time, although studies from tropical environments are thus far generally lacking. In this review, we summarize the approaches and applications used to date. Reproductive plant phenology has primarily been analyzed using two summary statistics, the mean flowering day of year and first-flowering day of year, but mean flowering day has proven to be a more robust statistic. Two types of regression models have been applied to test for associations between flowering, temperature and time: flowering day regressed on year and flowering day regressed on temperature. Most studies analyzed the effect of temperature by averaging temperatures from three months prior to the date of flowering. On average, published studies have used 55 herbarium specimens per species to characterize changes in phenology over time, but in many cases fewer specimens were used. Geospatial grid data are increasingly being used for determining average temperatures at herbarium specimen collection locations, allowing testing for finer scale correspondence between phenology and climate. Multiple studies have shown that inferences from herbarium specimen data are comparable to findings from systematically collected field observations. Understanding phenological responses to climate change is a crucial step towards recognizing implications for higher trophic levels and large-scale ecosystem processes. As herbaria are increasingly being digitized worldwide, more data are becoming available for future studies. As temperatures continue to rise globally, herbarium specimens are expected to become an increasingly important resource for analyzing plant responses to climate change.

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

Development, Implementation, and Assessment of Climate Curricular Materials for Introductory Undergraduates: Lessons Learned from the InTeGrate Project's Climate of Change Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, B.; Fadem, C. M.; Shellito, L. J.

2014-12-01

Designing climate change curricular materials suitable for wide adoption across institutions and academic disciplines (including those outside of the geosciences) requires collaboration among faculty at different types of institutions and consideration of a variety of student populations, learning styles, and course formats. The Interdisciplinary Teaching of Geoscience for a Sustainable Future (InTeGrate) project, an NSF STEP Center program, provides opportunities for faculty to develop 2-3 week teaching modules to engage students in understanding the intersections between geoscience topics and societal issues. From 2012-2014, a team of 3 faculty from a liberal arts college, comprehensive university, and community college developed, implemented, assessed, and revised a 2-3 week module for introductory undergraduates entitled "Climate of change: interactions and feedbacks between water, air, and ice". The module uses authentic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere data from several regions to illustrate how climate impacts human societies and that the climate system has interacting components complicated by feedbacks, uncertainties, and human behavioral decisions. Students also consider past and present human adaptations to climate fluctuations. The module was piloted in introductory geology, meteorology, and oceanography courses during the 2012-2013 academic year, during which time formative and summative assessments were administered and used to modify the curricular materials. We will provide an overview of the module's content, instructional strategies involved in implementing the module, and methods of formative and summative assessment. We will also report on lessons learned during the development, piloting, revision, and publishing process, the importance of fostering partnerships between faculty from different institution types, and design approaches that promote widespread adoption of climate curricular materials.

Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

PubMed Central

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

Pan-tropical analysis of climate effects on seasonal tree growth.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.

Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin.

PubMed

Donley, Erin E; Naiman, Robert J; Marineau, Mathieu D

2012-10-01

We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub-basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations - singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes to existing water resource policy. Flows for four sub-basins were modeled using the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) under historical and projected conditions of 2020 and 2040 for each scenario. Results indicate that Yakima will be the most flow-limited sub-basin with average reductions in streamflow of 41% under climate conditions of 2020 and 56% under 2040 conditions; 1.3-2.5 times greater than those of other sub-basins. In addition, irrigation plays a key role in the hydrology of the Yakima sub-basin - with flow reductions ranging from 78% to 90% under severe to extreme (i.e., 20-40%) increases in agricultural water use (2.0-4.4 times the reductions in the other sub-basins). The Yakima and Okanogan sub-basins are the most responsive to simulations of flow-bolstering policy change (providing salmon with first priority water allocation and at biologically relevant flows), as demonstrated by 91-100% target flows attained. The Wenatchee and Methow sub-basins do not exhibit similar responsiveness to simulated policy changes. Considering climate change only, we conclude that flow restoration should be prioritized first in the Yakima and Wenatchee sub-basins, and second in the Okanogan and Methow. Considering both climate change and possible policy changes, we recommend that the Yakima sub-basin receive the highest priority for flow restoration activities to sustain critical instream habitat for ESA-listed salmonids. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.

PubMed

Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L

2017-07-01

Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

PubMed

O'Driscoll, Connie; Ledesma, José L J; Coll, John; Murnane, John G; Nolan, Paul; Mockler, Eva M; Futter, Martyn N; Xiao, Liwen W

2018-07-15

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in china and the role of climate factors: a review.

PubMed

Hansen, Alana; Cameron, Scott; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Williams, Craig; Han, Gil-Soo; Bi, Peng

2015-04-01

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease that poses a serious public health threat in China. HFRS is caused by hantaviruses, mainly Seoul virus in urban areas and Hantaan virus in agricultural areas. Although preventive measures including vaccination programs and rodent control measures have resulted in a decline in cases in recent years, there has been an increase in incidence in some areas and new endemic areas have emerged. This review summarises the recent literature relating to the effects of climatic factors on the incidence of HFRS in China and discusses future research directions. Temperature, precipitation and humidity affect crop yields, rodent breeding patterns and disease transmission, and these can be influenced by a changing climate. Detailed surveillance of infections caused by Hantaan and Seoul viruses and further research on the viral agents will aid in interpretation of spatiotemporal patterns and a better understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of HFRS amid China's rapidly urbanising landscape and changing climate. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China: overview of situation and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hua

This work reviewed the observational status of PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China. It told us the observational facts on the ratios of typical types of aerosol components to the total PM2.5/PM10, and daily and seasonal change of near surface ozone concentration at different cities of China; the global concentration distribution of tropospheric ozone observed by satellite in 2010-2013 was also given for comparison; the PM2.5 concentration distribution and their seasonal change in China region were simulated by an aerosol chemistry-global climate modeling system. Different contribution from five kinds of aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 was analyzed. Then, it linked the emissions of aerosol and greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing and thus gave their climatic effect by reducing their emissions on the basis of most recently published IPCC AR5. Finally it suggested policies on reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) (such as PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone) in China from protecting both climate and environment.

Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Tait, A B; Pomroy, W E

2017-08-30

Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

2009-12-01

This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian Country in the Northern Plains; (4) strengthen our partnerships in the scientific community in addressing climate change issues that will impact our reservations; and (5) utilize NASA resources and instrumentation through LPDAAC (Landsat TM and ETM +, MODIS, ASTER and other remotely sensed data) to educate our TCU students about appropriate research and modeling applications. Few of the TCU STEM faculty have read and comprehend the “Summaries for Policy Makers” published by the IPCC working groups, the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, or the ACIA report. Many of these same faculty have little or no experience with remote sensing applications. Through this project we will empower our colleges and students to fully understand the threats posed by this important phenomenon. We will provide training for our TCU faculty, who, in turn, will prepare our students with the knowledge to implement the diverse and comprehensive mitigation strategies needed to sustain our resources and tribal communities.

Managing Identifiers for Elements of Provenance of the Third National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

2013-12-01

A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.

A climate change-induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Southern China.

PubMed

Zhou, Guoyi; Peng, Changhui; Li, Yuelin; Liu, Shizhong; Zhang, Qianmei; Tang, Xuli; Liu, Juxiu; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Chu, Guowei

2013-04-01

Recent studies have suggested that tropical forests may not be resilient against climate change in the long term, primarily owing to predicted reductions in rainfall and forest productivity, increased tree mortality, and declining forest biomass carbon sinks. These changes will be caused by drought-induced water stress and ecosystem disturbances. Several recent studies have reported that climate change has increased tree mortality in temperate and boreal forests, or both mortality and recruitment rates in tropical forests. However, no study has yet examined these changes in the subtropical forests that account for the majority of China's forested land. In this study, we describe how the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest has responded to global warming and drought stress using 32 years of data from forest observation plots. Due to an imbalance in mortality and recruitment, and changes in diameter growth rates between larger and smaller trees and among different functional groups, the average DBH of trees and forest biomass have decreased. Sap flow measurements also showed that larger trees were more stressed than smaller trees by the warming and drying environment. As a result, the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest community is undergoing a transition from a forest dominated by a cohort of fewer and larger individuals to a forest dominated by a cohort of more and smaller individuals, with a different species composition, suggesting that subtropical forests are threatened by their lack of resilience against long-term climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigorov, Ivo

2010-05-01

Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

PubMed

Richardson, Bryce A; Chaney, Lindsay; Shaw, Nancy L; Still, Shannon M

2017-06-01

Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed-effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R 2  = 0.79, marginal R 2  = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree-days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13-day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower-latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher-latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

PubMed Central

Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

2010-01-01

Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs-historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faurby, S.; King, T.L.; Obst, M.; Hallerman, E.M.; Pertoldi, C.; Funch, P.

2010-01-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics-a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Controversy in Biology Classrooms-Citizen Science Approaches to Evolution and Applications to Climate Change Discussions.

PubMed

Yoho, Rachel A; Vanmali, Binaben H

2016-03-01

The biological sciences encompass topics considered controversial by the American public, such as evolution and climate change. We believe that the development of climate change education in the biology classroom is better informed by an understanding of the history of the teaching of evolution. A common goal for science educators should be to engender a greater respect for and appreciation of science among students while teaching specific content knowledge. Citizen science has emerged as a viable yet underdeveloped method for engaging students of all ages in key scientific issues that impact society through authentic data-driven scientific research. Where successful, citizen science may open avenues of communication and engagement with the scientific process that would otherwise be more difficult to achieve. Citizen science projects demonstrate versatility in education and the ability to test hypotheses by collecting large amounts of often publishable data. We find a great possibility for science education research in the incorporation of citizen science projects in curriculum, especially with respect to "hot topics" of socioscientific debate based on our review of the findings of other authors. Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education.

Portrayal of sustainability principles in the mission statements and on home pages of the world's largest organizations.

PubMed

Garnett, Stephen T; Lawes, Michael J; James, Robyn; Bigland, Kristen; Zander, Kerstin K

2016-04-01

Conservation can be achieved only if sustainability is embraced as core to organizational cultures. To test the extent to which the related concepts of sustainability, conservation, response to climate change, poverty alleviation, and gender equity have been incorporated into organizational culture, we compared mission statements published from 1990 to 2000 with those published in 2014 for 150 organizations, including conservation nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), aid NGOs, government development agencies, resource extraction companies, and retailers (30 in each category). We also analyzed the 2014 home web pages of each organization. Relative to the earlier period, the frequency with which mission statements mentioned poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and a range of sustainable practices increased only slightly by 2014, particularly among resource extractors and retail companies. Few organizations in any sector had embedded either climate change or gender equity into their mission statements. In addition, the proportional intensity with which any of the aspirations were expressed did not change between periods. For current home pages, conservation NGOs, resource extractors, and government agencies were significantly more likely to acknowledge the importance of matters that were not part of their core business, but few aid agencies or retail companies promoted goals beyond alleviation of crises and profit maximization, respectively. Overall, there has been some progress in recognizing poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable practices, but gender equity and a determination to reduce impacts on climate change are still rarely promoted as central institutional concerns. Sustainability in general, and biodiversity conservation in particular, will not be achieved unless their importance is more widely apparent in core communication products of organizations. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.

PubMed

McGuire, A David; Lawrence, David M; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H; Marchenko, Sergey; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hayes, Daniel J; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A G; Zhuang, Qianlai

2018-04-10

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crucifix, Michel; Mitsui, Takahito

2015-04-01

Our knowledge of climate dynamics depends on indirect observations of past climate evolution, as well as on what can be inferred from theoretical arguments. At the scale of the Cenozoic, it is common to define a framework of nested time scales, the longest time scale of interest being related to the slow tectonic evolution, then variability associated with or controlled by the astronomical forcing, and finally the fastest dynamics associated with the natural modes of variability of the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, in a model, the astronomical modes of variability may be simulated with deterministic equations under fixed boundary conditions representing the tectonic state, and associated with stochastic parameterisations of the ocean-atmosphere (chaotic) modes of motion. Bifurcations or, more generally, qualitative changes in climate dynamics may be scanned by changing slowly the tectonic state, in order to provide explanations to observed changes in regimes such as the appearance of ice ages and their changes in length or amplitude. The above framework, largely theorized by B. Saltzman, may still be partly justified but is in need of a review. We address here specifically three questions: To what extent astronomical variability interacts with natural modes of ocean - atmosphere variability ? Specifically, how does millennial variability (e.g.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events) fit the Saltzman scheme ? The astronomical forcing is quasi-periodic, and we recently showed that it may produce somewhat counter-intuitive dynamics associated with the emergence of strange non-chaotic attractors. What are the consequences on the spectrum of climate variability ? What are the effects of centennial climate variability on the slow variability of climate ? These three questions are addressed by reference to recently published material, with the objective of emphasising research questions to be explored in the near future.

The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Chiabai, Aline; Quiroga, Sonia; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo; Higgins, Sahran; Taylor, Tim

2018-09-01

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of late quaternary climate change on Palearctic shrews.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Klietmann, Johannes; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Vrieling, Klaas; Stiller, Mathias; Nagel, Doris; Rabeder, Gernot; Hofreiter, Michael; Sommer, Robert S

2013-06-01

The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene-pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold-adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, W. M.

2010-12-01

The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one development pathway, the NSF/Department of Energy supported Community Climate System and Earth System Models will be featured in the presentation. Computational challenges will also part of the discussion.

Ontogenetic Variation in the Thermal Biology of Yarrow's Spiny Lizard, Sceloporus jarrovii

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Anthony L.; Lattanzio, Matthew S.

2016-01-01

Climate change is rapidly altering the way current species interact with their environment to satisfy life-history demands. In areas anticipated to experience extreme warming, rising temperatures are expected to diminish population growth, due either to environmental degradation, or the inability to tolerate novel temperature regimes. Determining how at risk ectotherms, and lizards in particular, are to changes in climate traditionally emphasizes the thermal ecology and thermal sensitivity of physiology of adult members of a population. In this study, we reveal ontogenetic differences in thermal physiological and ecological traits that have been used to anticipate how ectotherms will respond to climate change. We show that the thermal biological traits of juvenile Yarrow’s Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus jarrovii) differ from the published estimates of the same traits for adult lizards. Juvenile S. jarrovii differ in their optimal performance temperature, field field-active body temperature, and critical thermal temperatures compared to adult S. jarrovii. Within juvenile S. jarrovii, males and females exhibit differences in field-active body temperature and desiccation tolerance. Given the observed age- and sex-related variation in thermal physiology, we argue that not including physiological differences in thermal biology throughout ontogeny may lead to misinterpretation of patterns of ecological or evolutionary change due to climate warming. Further characterizing the potential for ontogenetic changes in thermal biology would be useful for a more precise and accurate estimation of the role of thermal physiology in mediating population persistence in warmer environments. PMID:26840620

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kresmer, Stefanie; Thomason, Larry W.; von Hobe, Marc; Hermann, Markus; Deshler, Terry; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Stenke, Andrea; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Weigel, Ralf;

The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Olusegun, Christiana; Klein, Cornelia; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald

2018-04-01

Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512). A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km) and intermediate (60 km) resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulations cover the validation period 1980-2010 and the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and almost no change in precipitation in the Sahel. This stands in contrast to existing regional climate projections, which predict increasingly drier conditions.The high spatial and temporal resolution of the data, the extensive list of output variables, the large computational domain and the long time periods covered make this data set a unique resource for follow-up analyses and impact modelling studies over the greater West African region. The comprehensive documentation and standardisation of the data facilitate and encourage their use within and outside of the WASCAL community.

Research on Biodiversity and Climate Change at a Distance: Collaboration Networks between Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Dangles, Olivier; Loirat, Jean; Freour, Claire; Serre, Sandrine; Vacher, Jean; Le Roux, Xavier

2016-01-01

Biodiversity loss and climate change are both globally significant issues that must be addressed through collaboration across countries and disciplines. With the December 2015 COP21 climate conference in Paris and the recent creation of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), it has become critical to evaluate the capacity for global research networks to develop at the interface between biodiversity and climate change. In the context of the European Union (EU) strategy to stand as a world leader in tackling global challenges, the European Commission has promoted ties between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in science, technology and innovation. However, it is not clear how these significant interactions impact scientific cooperation at the interface of biodiversity and climate change. We looked at research collaborations between two major regions—the European Research Area (ERA) and LAC—that addressed both biodiversity and climate change. We analysed the temporal evolution of these collaborations, whether they were led by ERA or LAC teams, and which research domains they covered. We surveyed publications listed on the Web of Science that were authored by researchers from both the ERA and LAC and that were published between 2003 and 2013. We also run similar analyses on other topics and other continents to provide baseline comparisons. Our results revealed a steady increase in scientific co-authorships between ERA and LAC countries as a result of the increasingly complex web of relationships that has been weaved among scientists from the two regions. The ERA-LAC co-authorship increase for biodiversity and climate change was higher than those reported for other topics and for collaboration with other continents. We also found strong differences in international collaboration patterns within the LAC: co-publications were fewest from researchers in low- and lower-middle-income countries and most prevalent from researchers in emerging countries like Mexico and Brazil. Overall, interdisciplinary publications represented 25.8% of all publications at the interface of biodiversity and climate change in the ERA-LAC network. Further scientific collaborations should be promoted 1) to prevent less developed countries from being isolated from the global cooperation network, 2) to ensure that scientists from these countries are trained to lead visible and recognized biodiversity and climate change research, and 3) to develop common study models that better integrate multiple scientific disciplines and better support decision-making. PMID:27304924

Research on Biodiversity and Climate Change at a Distance: Collaboration Networks between Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean.

PubMed

Dangles, Olivier; Loirat, Jean; Freour, Claire; Serre, Sandrine; Vacher, Jean; Le Roux, Xavier

2016-01-01

Biodiversity loss and climate change are both globally significant issues that must be addressed through collaboration across countries and disciplines. With the December 2015 COP21 climate conference in Paris and the recent creation of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), it has become critical to evaluate the capacity for global research networks to develop at the interface between biodiversity and climate change. In the context of the European Union (EU) strategy to stand as a world leader in tackling global challenges, the European Commission has promoted ties between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in science, technology and innovation. However, it is not clear how these significant interactions impact scientific cooperation at the interface of biodiversity and climate change. We looked at research collaborations between two major regions-the European Research Area (ERA) and LAC-that addressed both biodiversity and climate change. We analysed the temporal evolution of these collaborations, whether they were led by ERA or LAC teams, and which research domains they covered. We surveyed publications listed on the Web of Science that were authored by researchers from both the ERA and LAC and that were published between 2003 and 2013. We also run similar analyses on other topics and other continents to provide baseline comparisons. Our results revealed a steady increase in scientific co-authorships between ERA and LAC countries as a result of the increasingly complex web of relationships that has been weaved among scientists from the two regions. The ERA-LAC co-authorship increase for biodiversity and climate change was higher than those reported for other topics and for collaboration with other continents. We also found strong differences in international collaboration patterns within the LAC: co-publications were fewest from researchers in low- and lower-middle-income countries and most prevalent from researchers in emerging countries like Mexico and Brazil. Overall, interdisciplinary publications represented 25.8% of all publications at the interface of biodiversity and climate change in the ERA-LAC network. Further scientific collaborations should be promoted 1) to prevent less developed countries from being isolated from the global cooperation network, 2) to ensure that scientists from these countries are trained to lead visible and recognized biodiversity and climate change research, and 3) to develop common study models that better integrate multiple scientific disciplines and better support decision-making.

Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and still 8% for series of 25 years lengths. Methods for bias correction are demonstrated. The definition of "bias" depends on a number of factors, which needs further debate in the hydrological and water engineering community. References: Willems P. (2013), 'Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe', Climatic Change, 120(4), 931-944 Willems, P. (2013). 'Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations', Journal of Hydrology, 490, 126-133 Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

B. Faybishenko

At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing themmore » with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.« less

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape.

PubMed

Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B; Abramson, David; Arndt, Stefan K; Briggs, Peter; Bristow, Mila; Canadell, Josep G; Cernusak, Lucas A; Eamus, Derek; Edwards, Andrew C; Evans, Bradley J; Fest, Benedikt; Goergen, Klaus; Grover, Samantha P; Hacker, Jorg; Haverd, Vanessa; Kanniah, Kasturi; Livesley, Stephen J; Lynch, Amanda; Maier, Stefan; Moore, Caitlin; Raupach, Michael; Russell-Smith, Jeremy; Scheiter, Simon; Tapper, Nigel J; Uotila, Petteri

2015-01-01

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming

PubMed Central

Gibson-Reinemer, Daniel K.; Rahel, Frank J.

2015-01-01

Climate in part determines species’ distributions, and species’ distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Strong correlations between the magnitude of temperature changes and the extent of range shifts point to warming temperatures as the single most influential factor causing shifts in species’ distributions species. However, other abiotic and biotic factors may alter or even reverse these patterns. The importance of temperature relative to these other factors can be evaluated by examining range shifts of the same species in different geographic areas. When the same species experience warming in different geographic areas, the extent to which they show range shifts that are similar in direction and magnitude is a measure of temperature’s importance. We analyzed published studies to identify species that have documented range shifts in separate areas. For 273 species of plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates with range shifts measured in multiple geographic areas, 42-50% show inconsistency in the direction of their range shifts, despite experiencing similar warming trends. Inconsistency of within-species range shifts highlights how biotic interactions and local, non-thermal abiotic conditions may often supersede the direct physiological effects of temperature. Assemblages show consistent responses to climate change, but this predictability does not appear to extend to species considered individually. PMID:26162013

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

PubMed

Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

2016-04-01

Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Geological Society of London Issues Statement on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summerhayes, Colin

2011-02-01

On 1 November the Geological Society of London (GSL) published a statement (http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/site//GSL//lang/en/climatechange) about the geological evidence relating to past climates, atmospheric carbon levels, and their interrelationships. The online version also carries a list of recommendations for further reading. The GSL's Geoscientist magazine (http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/site/GSL/lang/en/page8578.html) reported Bryan Lovell, GSL president, as saying, “Climate change is a defining issue of our time, whose full understanding needs geology's long perspective. Earth scientists can read…the geological record of changes in climate that occurred long before we were around to light so much as a camp fire, let alone burn coal, gas and oil. A dramatic global warming event 55 million years ago gives us a particularly clear indication of what happens when there is a sudden release of 1500 billion tonnes of carbon into Earth's atmosphere. It gets hot, the seas become more acid, and there is widespread extinction of life. We are a third of the way to repeating that ancient natural input of carbon through our own agency. The message from the rocks is that it would be a good idea to stop pulling that carbon trigger.”

Communicating and countering misconceptions about the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, J.

2016-12-01

A number of studies have sought to quantify the level of agreement among climate scientists on human-caused global warming. This has included surveys of the scientific community, analyses of public declarations about climate change and analyses of peer-reviewed climate papers. This body of research has found that the level of consensus increases with expertise in climate science, culminating in 97% agreement among publishing climate scientists. Despite this robust finding, there is a significant gap between public perception of scientific consensus and the overwhelming agreement among climate scientists. This "consensus gap" is due in large part to a persistent, focused campaign to manufacture doubt about the scientific consensus by opponents of climate action. This campaign has employed non-expert spokespeople, magnified the small minority of dissenting scientists and exploited the journalistic norm of balance to generate the impression of an equal debate among scientists. Given the importance of perceived consensus as a "gateway belief" influencing a number of climate beliefs and attitudes, it is imperative that climate communicators close the consensus gap. This can be achieved by communicating the 97% consensus and explaining the techniques used to cast doubt on the consensus.

Impact of land cover changes and climate on the main airborne pollen types in Southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, Herminia; Oteros, Jose Antonio; Galán, Carmen

2016-04-01

Airborne pollen concentrations strongly correlate with flowering intensity of wind-pollinated species growing at and around monitoring sites. The pollen spectrum, and the variations in its composition and concentrations, is influenced by climatic features and by available nutritional resources but it is also determined by land use and its changes. The first factor influence is well known on aerobiological researches but the impact of land cover changes has been scarcely studied until now. This paper reports on a study carried out in Southern Spain (Córdoba city) examining airborne pollen trends over a 15-year period and it explores the possible links both to changes in land use and to climate variations. The Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) which decomposes long-term data series into smaller seasonal component patterns was applied. Trends were compared with recorded changes in land use at varying distances from the city in order to determine their possible influence on pollen-count variations. The influence of climate-related factors was determined by means of non-parametric correlation analysis. The STL method proved highly effective for extracting trend components from pollen time series, because their features vary widely and can change quickly in a short term. Results revealed mixed trends depending on the taxa and reflecting fluctuations in land cover and/or climate. A significant rising trend in Olea pollen counts was observed, attributable both to the increasing olive-growing area but also to changes in temperature and rainfall. Poaceae pollen concentrations also increased, due largely to an expansion of heterogeneous agricultural areas and to an increase in pollen season length positively influenced by rainfall and temperature. By contrast, the significant declining trend observed for pollen from ruderal taxa, such as Amaranthaceae, Rumex, Plantago and Urticaceae, may be linked to changes in urban planning strategies with a higher building pressure. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset in the Fabaceae: a conceptual model and its ecological implications for the Australian wattle Acacia saligna.

PubMed

Tozer, Mark G; Ooi, Mark K J

2014-09-01

Seed dormancy enhances fitness by preventing seeds from germinating when the probability of seedling survival and recruitment is low. The onset of physical dormancy is sensitive to humidity during ripening; however, the implications of this mechanism for seed bank dynamics have not been quantified. This study proposes a model that describes how humidity-regulated dormancy onset may control the accumulation of a dormant seed bank, and seed experiments are conducted to calibrate the model for an Australian Fabaceae, Acacia saligna. The model is used to investigate the impact of climate on seed dormancy and to forecast the ecological implications of human-induced climate change. The relationship between relative humidity and dormancy onset was quantified under laboratory conditions by exposing freshly matured non-dormant seeds to constant humidity levels for fixed durations. The model was field-calibrated by measuring the response of seeds exposed to naturally fluctuating humidity. The model was applied to 3-hourly records of humidity spanning the period 1972-2007 in order to estimate both temporal variability in dormancy and spatial variability attributable to climatic differences among populations. Climate change models were used to project future changes in dormancy onset. A sigmoidal relationship exists between dormancy and humidity under both laboratory and field conditions. Seeds ripened under field conditions became dormant following very short exposure to low humidity (<20 %). Prolonged exposure at higher humidity did not increase dormancy significantly. It is predicted that populations growing in a temperate climate produce 33-55 % fewer dormant seeds than those in a Mediterranean climate; however, dormancy in temperate populations is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. Humidity-regulated dormancy onset may explain observed variation in physical dormancy. The model offers a systematic approach to modelling this variation in population studies. Forecast changes in climate have the potential to alter the seed bank dynamics of species with physical dormancy regulated by this mechanism, with implications for their capacity to delay germination and exploit windows for recruitment. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change.

PubMed

Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

2015-02-07

Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Will the Antarctic tardigrade Acutuncus antarcticus be able to withstand environmental stresses related to global climate change?

PubMed

Giovannini, Ilaria; Altiero, Tiziana; Guidetti, Roberto; Rebecchi, Lorena

2018-02-20

Because conditions in continental Antarctica are highly selective and extremely hostile to life, its biota is depauperate, but well adapted to live in this region. Global climate change has the potential to impact continental Antarctic organisms because of increasing temperatures and ultraviolet radiation. This research evaluates how ongoing climate changes will affect Antarctic species, and whether Antarctic organisms will be able to adapt to the new environmental conditions. Tardigrades represent one of the main terrestrial components of Antarctic meiofauna; therefore, the pan-Antarctic tardigrade Acutuncus antarcticus was used as model to predict the fate of Antarctic meiofauna threatened by climate change. Acutuncus antarcticus individuals tolerate events of desiccation, increased temperature and UV radiation. Both hydrated and desiccated animals tolerate increases in UV radiation, even though the desiccated animals are more resistant. Nevertheless, the survivorship of hydrated and desiccated animals is negatively affected by the combination of temperature and UV radiation, with the hydrated animals being more tolerant than desiccated animals. Finally, UV radiation has a negative impact on the life history traits of successive generations of A. antarcticus , causing an increase in egg reabsorption and teratological events. In the long run, A. antarcticus could be at risk of population reductions or even extinction. Nevertheless, because the changes in global climate will proceed gradually and an overlapping of temperature and UV increase could be limited in time, A. antarcticus , as well as many other Antarctic organisms, could have the potential to overcome global warming stresses, and/or the time and capability to adapt to the new environmental conditions. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

ERCA 2008 - From the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change to the Observation of the Earth from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutron, Claude

2009-02-01

This book is the eighth volume in the series of books published within the framework of the European Research Course on Atmospheres ("ERCA"). ERCA was initiated in 1993 by the University Joseph Fourier of Grenoble, in order to provide PhD students and scientists from Europe and the rest of the world with a multidisciplinary course, which covers especially: the climate system and climate change; the physics and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere; the human dimensions of environmental change; the other planets and satellites in the solar system and beyond. Since 1993, sixteen sessions have been attended by more 800 participants from 50 countries. The seventeenth session will take place from 12 January to 13 February 2009. This new volume contains twenty two chapters dealing with a wide range of topics. The following subjects are covered: the human dimensions of global environmental change; climate change and cryospheric evolution in China; the projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe; the understanding of the health impacts of air pollutants; air quality and human welfare; photocatalytic self-cleaning materials; radiative transfer in the cloudy atmosphere; laboratory modelling of atmospheric dynamical processes; stratospheric ozone; the applications of stable isotope analysis to atmospheric trace gas budgets; nitrogen oxides in the troposphere; the observation of the solid Earth, the oceans and land waters; the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet; sea surface salinity reconstruction as seen with foraminifera shells; sources markers in aerosols, oceanic particles and sediments; the nucleation of atmospheric particles; the characterization of atmospheric aerosol episodes in China; the solar magnetic activity; the present and past climates of planet Mars; the outer solar system; Titan as an analog of Earth's past and future; the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Effect of climate change on agriculture sustainability in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, S.

2009-04-01

Jordan is a vulnerable country in terms of climate change impact. In the latest assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Jordan will suffer from reduced agricultural productivity due to more erratic rainfall patterns, reduced freshwater resources and increased temperatures. The Initial National Communication (INC) to the United Nations Framework Convention to Climate Change (UNFCCC) foresees that over the next three decades, Jordan will witness a rise in temperature, drop in rainfall, reduced ground cover, reduced water availability, heat-waves, and more frequent dust storms. Coupled with the effect of continuing drought incidents, plant cover removal was greatly accelerated. Climate change can impact agricultural sustainability in Jordan in two interrelated ways: first, by diminishing the long-term ability of agroecosystems to provide food and fiber locally; and second, by inducing shifts in agricultural regions that may encroach upon natural habitats, at the expense of floral and faunal diversity. Global warming may encourage the expansion of agricultural activities into regions now occupied by natural ecosystems such as rangelands in the Badia region and forests. Such encroachment will have adverse effects on the fragile ecosystem in those areas (Badia and steppe areas). Primary model test results showed that the reduction of rainfall by 10 to 20% had a negative impact while the increase in rainfall by 10 to 20% had a positive impact on grain yield for both barley and wheat at the different temperature regimes. This is due to the fact that water is the main limiting growth factor for wheat and barley under rainfed agriculture on Jordan. The warming (increase in temperature by 1 to 4˚ C) had negative impact on barley grain yield while it had a positive impact on grain yield of wheat.

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

PubMed

Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

2015-02-01

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A meta-analysis of soil exoenzyme responses to simulated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebhardt, M.; Espinosa, N. J.; Blankinship, J. C.; Gallery, R. E.

2017-12-01

Microorganisms produce extracellular enzymes to decompose plant matter and drive biogeochemical transformations in soils. Climate change factors, such as warming and altered precipitation patterns, can impact enzyme activity through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Although many individual studies have examined how soil exoenzyme activities respond to climate change manipulations, there is disagreement surrounding the direction of these responses. We performed a synthesis of published studies to examine the influence of warming and altered precipitation on microbial exoenzyme activity. We found that warming increased enzyme activity with a more pronounced effect for oxidative relative to hydrolytic enzymes. Reduced precipitation consistently decreased exoenzyme activity. These responses, however, varied by season, biome, and enzyme type. The majority of studies fitting our criteria (e.g., experiments lasting a minimum of one growing season, paired treatments and controls) were located in North America and Europe. Inferences from this analysis therefore exclude many important ecosystems such as hyper-arid, wetlands, and artic systems. Carbon degrading enzyme activities were less sensitive to climate change manipulations when compared to phosphorus and nitrogen degrading enzyme activities. Linking enzyme activity to biogeochemical processes requires concomitant measurements of organic and inorganic carbon pools, mineralogy, nutrients, microbial biomass and community structure, and heterotrophic respiration within individual studies. Furthermore, linking these parameters to climate and environmental factors will require a comprehensive and consistent inclusion of biotic and abiotic variables among researchers and experiments. Globally, soils contain the largest carbon pools. Understanding the impacts of large-scale perturbations on soil enzyme activity will help to constrain predictions on the fate of biogeochemical transformations and improve model projections.

New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

2010-12-01

As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

PubMed

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

2017-12-01

Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Historical changes in lake ice-out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, G.A.; James, Ivan; Huntington, T.G.

2002-01-01

Various studies have shown that changes over time in spring ice-out dates can be used as indicators of climate change. Ice-out dates from 29 lakes in New England (USA) with 64 to 163 years of record were assembled and analysed for this study. Ice-out dates have become significantly earlier in New England since the 1800s. Changes in ice-out dates between 1850 and 2000 were 9 days and 16 days in the northern/mountainous and southern regions of New England respectively. The changes in the ice-out data over time were very consistent within each of the two regions of New England, and more consistent than four air-temperature records in each region. The ice-out dates of the two regions had a different response to changes in air temperature. The inferred late winter-early spring air-temperature warming in both regions of New England since 1850, based on linear regression analysis, was about 1.5 ??C. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Building of Environmental Literacy among Middle School Students: The Role of In-School, Out of School, and Psychological Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson, Kathryn Tate

Solving environmental challenges will require an environmentally literate citizenry, equipped with ecological knowledge, pro-environmental attitudes, problem-solving skills, and motivation toward environmentally responsible behaviors. This dissertation addresses three approaches to building environmental literacy (EL) among middle school students: through schools (Chapter 1), through activities outside of school (Chapter 2), and through understanding psychological factors that affect environmental perceptions (Chapter 3). Chapter 1. This study examined school-wide EE programs among middle schools in North Carolina, including the use of published EE curricula and time outdoors while controlling for teacher education level and experience, student demographics, and school attributes. Our sample included an EE group selected from schools with registered schoolwide EE programs, and a control group randomly selected from NC middle schools that were not registered as EE schools. Students were given an EL survey at the beginning and end of the spring 2012 semester. Use of published EE curricula, time outdoors, and having teachers with advanced degrees and mid-level teaching experience (between 3 and 5 years) were positively related with EL whereas minority status (Hispanic and black) was negatively related with EL. Results suggest that though school-wide EE programs may vary in effectiveness, the use of published EE curricula paired with time outdoors represents a promising strategy. Further, investments in both new and veteran teachers to build and maintain enthusiasm for EE may help to boost student EL levels. Middle school represents a pivotal time for influencing EL, as improvement was slower among older students. Differences in EL levels based on gender suggest boys and girls may possess complementary skills sets when approaching environmental issues. Our findings suggest ethnicity related disparities in EL levels may be mitigated by time spent in nature, especially among black and Hispanic students. Chapter 2. Significant life experience (SLE) research suggests presence of role models, time outdoors, and nature-related media foster pro-environmental behavior, but most research is qualitative. Based on a random sample of middle school students in North Carolina, USA, we found limited positive associations between presence of a role model and time outdoors with behavior and a negative association between watching nature television and environmental knowledge. The strongest predictors of environmental knowledge and behavior were student/teacher ratio and county income levels, respectively. We also found that Native Americans engaged in environmental behaviors more than Caucasians, and that African American and Hispanic students had lower levels of environmental knowledge. Accordingly, life experiences appear less important than promoting small class sizes and addressing challenges associated with lower incomes in schools. Chapter 3. Though many climate literacy efforts attempt to communicate climate change as a risk, these strategies may be ineffective because among adults, worldview rather than scientific understanding largely drives climate change risk perceptions. Further, increased science literacy may polarize worldview-driven perceptions, making some climate literacy efforts counterproductive among skeptics. Because worldviews are still forming in the teenage years, adolescents may represent a more receptive audience. This study examined how worldview and climate change knowledge related to acceptance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and in turn, climate change risk perception among middle school students. We found respondents with individualistic worldviews were 16.1 percentage points less likely to accept AGW than communitarian respondents at median knowledge levels, mirroring findings in similar studies among adults. The interaction between knowledge and worldview, however, was opposite from previous studies among adults, because increased climate change knowledge was positively related to acceptance of AGW among both groups, and had a stronger positive relationship among individualists. Thus, education efforts specific to climate change may counteract divisions based on worldviews among adolescents, versus polarize them as among adults.

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and the Role of Planning Instruments - The Example of the Dresden Region (Saxony/Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, J.; Juta, K.; Nobis, A.

2009-04-01

In the past, identifying anthropogenic influences on climate change, scenario analyses and issues of climate change mitigation were predominant approaches in climate change research (IPCC 2007). Currently, for instance in Germany, climate impact research on regional level comes to the forefront of research and policy making. Climate change has become an important topic on the agenda of politicians, administration and planning. In order to counteract the (unavoidable) climate change and its impacts it is necessary to develop adaptation strategies. At present, such strategies and guidelines are formulated on international, supranational and national level. The initial point was the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 where the contracting states obligated themselves to develop national (and regional) programmes for adaptation. In 2007 the European Commission published its Green Paper called Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe. The paper states that adaptation efforts have to be intensified at different (spatial) levels (local, regional, national, and so forth). Furthermore, coordinating these efforts is of high importance. With the recent agreement on the German Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (DAS 2008) in December 2008, federal government tries to accomplish this task. The German strategy mainly focuses on two elements: decreasing vulnerability and increasing adaptability. While the above mentioned strategies have presented information and policies concerning climate change and adaptation on international, supranational and national level, such documents dońt yet exist on regional level. However, because of their close link to the local level the regions are of high importance for adaptation strategies. Therefore, the Leibniz-Institute of Ecological and Regional Development developed a transdisciplinary project to formulate and implement the so-called Integrated Regional Climate Adaptation Programme (IRCAP) for the Model Region of Dresden (project REGKLAM). The REGKLAM-project is based on regionalised scenarios of climate change and includes measures of climate change adaptation to change for instance, urban form, infrastructure assets (e.g., reservoirs) and land use. Various institutions from politics, administration, economy, and research as well as civil society are involved in the project (the city of Dresden, several ministries and authorities of Saxony, the Dresden Chamber of Industry and Commerce and the University of Dresden). The IRCAP is planned to be an informal, cross-sectoral instrument of adaptation to climate change. As a regional programme, the IRCAP is addressed to decision-makers of the region of Dresden (defined, for instance, as planning region). Its function is to complement and coordinate existing instruments and measures. These instruments also include instruments of environmental and spatial planning on the regional level. Spatial and environmental planning can rely on a wide range of formal and informal instruments on different spatial, administrative, and sectoral levels, e.g. land use and landscape plans. Our contribution to the EGU conference aims to clear the role and relevance of the existing formal and informal planning instruments in the region of Dresden for the process of developing the IRCAP. Firstly, a survey is conducted for the purpose of identifying all relevant planning instruments. The identification process is based on specific criteria, for example: reference to the region, contents relating to the topic of climate change respectively climate adaptation. Secondly, the presentation argues for a selection of those planning instruments which seem to be most relevant for the process of developing an IRCAP. This selection process is based on specific criteria which include, for instance, complexity of expected effects, reference to regional and sectoral vulnerability, opportunity for future change of the existing planning instruments (e.g., current process of updating), interests of project partners and stakeholders. Thirdly, as a result, an overview of relevant planning instruments in the region of Dresden is shown, including their current status and statements about their relevance for the topic of climate adaptation strategies. Finally it is derived that this procedure provides a basis for the following possibilities: Adapting existing planning instruments, integrate contents of existing planning instruments in the IRCAP process, or develop and define new strategies or measures on the way to an IRCAP.

Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants

PubMed Central

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S.; Wagner, David; Danforth, Bryan N.; Colla, Sheila; Kornbluth, Sarah; Winfree, Rachael

2011-01-01

The phenology of many ecological processes is modulated by temperature, making them potentially sensitive to climate change. Mutualistic interactions may be especially vulnerable because of the potential for phenological mismatching if the species involved do not respond similarly to changes in temperature. Here we present an analysis of climate-associated shifts in the phenology of wild bees, the most important pollinators worldwide, and compare these shifts to published studies of bee-pollinated plants over the same time period. We report that over the past 130 y, the phenology of 10 bee species from northeastern North America has advanced by a mean of 10.4 ± 1.3 d. Most of this advance has taken place since 1970, paralleling global temperature increases. When the best available data are used to estimate analogous rates of advance for plants, these rates are not distinguishable from those of bees, suggesting that bee emergence is keeping pace with shifts in host-plant flowering, at least among the generalist species that we investigated. PMID:22143794

Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Summary of key emerging issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T.; Bring, A.; Mârd, J.; Carmack, E.; Holland, M.; Instanes, A.; Vihma, T.; Wrona, F. J.

2015-10-01

In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFSΣ). The major reason behind the joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. The AFSΣ was structured around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources, and modeling, the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFSΣ summary manuscript reviews key issues that emerged during the conduct of the synthesis, especially those that are cross-thematic in nature, and identifies future research required to address such issues.

Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants.

PubMed

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S; Wagner, David; Danforth, Bryan N; Colla, Sheila; Kornbluth, Sarah; Winfree, Rachael

2011-12-20

The phenology of many ecological processes is modulated by temperature, making them potentially sensitive to climate change. Mutualistic interactions may be especially vulnerable because of the potential for phenological mismatching if the species involved do not respond similarly to changes in temperature. Here we present an analysis of climate-associated shifts in the phenology of wild bees, the most important pollinators worldwide, and compare these shifts to published studies of bee-pollinated plants over the same time period. We report that over the past 130 y, the phenology of 10 bee species from northeastern North America has advanced by a mean of 10.4 ± 1.3 d. Most of this advance has taken place since 1970, paralleling global temperature increases. When the best available data are used to estimate analogous rates of advance for plants, these rates are not distinguishable from those of bees, suggesting that bee emergence is keeping pace with shifts in host-plant flowering, at least among the generalist species that we investigated.

Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.

PubMed

Ziska, Lewis H; Beggs, Paul J

2012-01-01

Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Vegetation, climatic and floral changes at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, J.A.; Upchurch, G.R.

1986-01-01

he western interior of North America has the only known non-marine sections that contain the iridium-rich clay interpreted as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary1-7. Because vegetation and climate can be directly inferred from physiognomy of leaves8-15 and because leaf species typically represent low taxonomic categories, studies of leaf floras in these sections provide data on the effects of a terminal Cretaceous event on the land flora, vegetation and climate. A previous study based on detailed sampling of leaves and their dispersed cuticle16 in the Raton Basin provides a framework for interpretation of other leaf sequences over 20 degrees of latitude. We conclude that at the boundary there were: (1) High levels of extinction in the south and low levels in the north; (2) major ecological disruption followed by long-term vegetational changes that mimicked normal ecological succession; (3) a major increase in precipitation; and (4) a brief, low-temperature excursion, which supports models of an 'impact winter'. ?? 1986 Nature Publishing Group.

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

An Ecoinformatic Analysis of the Effect of Seasonal and Annual Variation in Temperature, Precipitation, and Solar Irradiance on Pollen Productivity in Two Neotropical Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haselhorst, D. S.; Tcheng, D. K.; Moreno, J. E.; Punyasena, S. W.

2014-12-01

Observational data provide a powerful source of information for understanding the phenological response of tropical forests to a changing climate. Annual changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance, in part driven by ENSO cycles, provide a natural experiment. However, these time series are often relatively short (several years to several decades), the average climatic variability experienced in that timeframe is relatively small, and the corresponding response is therefore often very weak. As a result, standard statistical approaches may fail in detecting a biological response. We present an alternative ecoinformatic analysis that demonstrates the power of weak models in the discovery and interpretation of statistically significant signals in short, noisy, ecological time series. We developed a simple response prediction model that uses cross-validation to explore a landscape of models that correlate the phenological behavior of individual taxa (pollen production, flowering, fruiting) to seasonal and annual mean temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance using multivariate linear regression. We use a sign slope sensitivity analysis of each linear model that tallies positive and negative slope counts of a taxon's phenological behavior to our environmental and null variables. We applied this analysis to pollen trap data collected from 1996 to 2006 from two lowland Panamanian forests, Barro Colorado Island and Parque National San Lorenzo. We also tested the performance of our predictive model using published data of annual flowering and fruiting from BCI to corroborate that our approach could reproduce previously published results on tropical phenology. Our results indicate that although the overall variation in temperature was 3.28 °C over the ten year period, pollen productivity at both sites was most consistently affected by changes in temperature. This result was replicated by the published BCI flower and fruit data, which also increased with increased temperatures, highlighting the significant influence of even subtle changes in temperature for tropical forest communities. We also observed that both pollen and fruit production were negatively correlated with precipitation, suggesting a mechanism for how climate may interfere with pollination success.

Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

PubMed

Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

2016-06-15

The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

PubMed

Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

2013-06-01

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Supporting UK adaptation: building services for the next set of UK climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, Fai; Lowe, Jason

2016-04-01

As part of the Climate Change Act 2008, the UK Government sets out a national adaptation programme to address the risks and opportunities identified in a national climate change risk assessment (CCRA) every five years. The last risk assessment in 2012 was based on the probabilistic projections for the UK published in 2009 (UKCP09). The second risk assessment will also use information from UKCP09 alongside other evidence on climate projections. However, developments in the science of climate projeciton, and evolving user needs (based partly on what has been learnt about the diverse user requirements of the UK adaptation community from the seven years of delivering and managing UKCP09 products, market research and the peer-reviewed literature) suggest now is an appropriate time to update the projections and how they are delivered. A new set of UK climate projections are now being produced to upgrade UKCP09 to reflect the latest developments in climate science, the first phase of which will be delivered in 2018 to support the third CCRA. A major component of the work is the building of a tailored service to support users of the new projections during their development and to involve users in key decisions so that the projections are of most use. We will set out the plan for the new climate projections that seek to address the evolving user need. We will also present a framework which aims to (i) facilitate the dialogue between users, boundary organisations and producers, reflecting their different decision-making roles (ii) produce scientifically robust, user-relevant climate information (iii) provide the building blocks for developing further climate services to support adaptation activities in the UK.

Global Warming Wars: Rhetorical and Discourse Analytic Approaches to ExxonMobil's Corporate Public Discourse.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Livesey, Sharon M.

2002-01-01

Analyzes texts published by ExxonMobil on the issue of climate change, employing both rhetorical analysis and discourse analysis to show their uses and potential value in business communication research. Shows how both reveal the socially constructed nature "reality" and the social effects of language, but are never the less distinct in…

Water balance of pine forests: Synthesis of new and published results

Treesearch

Pantana Tor-ngern; Ram Oren; Sari Palmroth; Kimberly Novick; Andrew Oishi; Sune Linder; Mikaell Ottosson-Lofvenius; Torgny Nasholm

2018-01-01

The forest hydrologic cycle is expected to have important feedback responses to climate change, impacting processes ranging from local water supply and primary productivity to global water and energy cycles. Here, we analyzed water budgets of pine forests worldwide. We first estimated local water balance of forests dominated by two wide-ranging species: Pinus...

Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.

PubMed

York, Emily M; Butler, Christopher J; Lord, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

Climate and foraging mode explain interspecific variation in snake metabolic rates.

PubMed

Dupoué, Andréaz; Brischoux, François; Lourdais, Olivier

2017-11-29

The energy cost of self-maintenance is a critical facet of life-history strategies. Clarifying the determinant of interspecific variation in metabolic rate (MR) at rest is important to understand and predict ecological patterns such as species distributions or responses to climatic changes. We examined variation of MR in snakes, a group characterized by a remarkable diversity of activity rates and a wide distribution. We collated previously published MR data ( n = 491 observations) measured in 90 snake species at different trial temperatures. We tested for the effects of metabolic state (standard MR (SMR) versus resting MR (RMR)), foraging mode (active versus ambush foragers) and climate (temperature and precipitation) while accounting for non-independence owing to phylogeny, body mass and thermal dependence. We found that RMR was 40% higher than SMR, and that active foragers have higher MR than species that ambush their prey. We found that MR was higher in cold environments, supporting the metabolic cold adaptation hypothesis. We also found an additive and positive effect of precipitation on MR suggesting that lower MR in arid environments may decrease dehydration and energetic costs. Altogether, our findings underline the complex influences of climate and foraging mode on MR and emphasize the relevance of these facets to understand the physiological impact of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using IFA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Thirumalai, Kaustubh

2017-04-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Anticipating future ENSO variability under anthropogenic forcing is vital due to its profound socioeconomic impact. Fossil corals suggest that 20th century ENSO variance is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene (Cobb et al., 2013, Science), the Last Glacial Maximum (Ford et al., 2015, Science) and the last glacial period (Tudhope et al., 2001, Science). Yet, recent climate modeling experiments suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño (Cai et al., 2014, Nature Climate Change) and La Niña (Cai et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change) events. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009, Paleoceanography), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013, Paleoceanography). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows. We will also use previously published data from the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Our dataset confirms variable ENSO intensity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene. As a next step, ENSO activity will be discussed with respect to the contrasting climatic background of the analysed time windows (millenial-scale variability, Terminations).

Divergent climate response on hydraulic-related xylem anatomical traits of Picea abies along a 900-m altitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Castagneri, Daniele; Petit, Giai; Carrer, Marco

2015-12-01

Climate change can induce substantial modifications in xylem structure and water transport capacity of trees exposed to environmental constraints. To elucidate mechanisms of xylem plasticity in response to climate, we retrospectively analysed different cell anatomical parameters over tree-ring series in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.). We sampled 24 trees along an altitudinal gradient (1200, 1600 and 2100 m above sea level, a.s.l.) and processed 2335 ± 1809 cells per ring. Time series for median cell lumen area (MCA), cell number (CN), tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring-specific hydraulic conductivity (Kr) were crossed with daily temperature and precipitation records (1926-2011) to identify climate influence on xylem anatomical traits. Higher Kr at the low elevation site was due to higher MCA and CN. These variables were related to different aspects of intra-seasonal climatic variability under different environmental conditions, with MCA being more sensitive to summer precipitation. Winter precipitation (snow) benefited most parameters in all the sites. Descending the gradient, sensitivity of xylem features to summer climate shifted mostly from temperature to precipitation. In the context of climate change, our results indicate that higher summer temperatures at high elevations will benefit cell production and xylem hydraulic efficiency, whereas reduced water availability at lower elevations could negatively affect tracheids enlargement and thus stem capacity to transport water. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.