Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

Managing climate change risks in rangeland systems [Chapter 15

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Nadine A. Marshall

2017-01-01

The management of rangelands has long involved adapting to climate variability to ensure that economic enterprises remain viable and ecosystems sustainable; climate change brings the potential for change that surpasses the experience of humans within rangeland systems. Adaptation will require an intentionality to address the effects of climate change. Knowledge of...

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

PubMed

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Developing and implementing climate change adaptation options in forest ecosystems: a case study in southwestern Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Kerry L. Metlen; Gwyneth M. Myer; Alaric V. Sample

2016-01-01

Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabilities and to develop...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Arnold Barry; Backus, George A.; Romig, Alton Dale, Jr.

Climate change is a long-term process that will trigger a range of multi-dimensional demographic, economic, geopolitical, and national security issues with many unknowns and significant uncertainties. At first glance, climate-change-related national security dimensions seem far removed from today's major national security threats. Yet climate change has already set in motion forces that will require U.S. attention and preparedness. The extent and uncertainty associated with these situations necessitate a move away from conventional security practices, toward a small but flexible portfolio of assets to maintain U.S. interests. Thoughtful action is required now if we are to acquire the capabilities, tools, systems,more » and institutions needed to meet U.S. national security requirements as they evolve with the emerging stresses and shifts of climate change.« less

An Examination of Climate Scientists' Participation in Education: Implications for Supporting the Teaching and Learning of Socially Controversial Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Elizabeth M.

2012-01-01

Preparing a generation of citizens to respond to the impacts of climate change will require collaborative interactions between natural scientists, learning scientists, educators and learners. Promoting effective involvement of scientists in climate change education is especially important as climate change science and climate impacts are…

Effective Strategies for Talking about Climate Change in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busch, K. C.; Osborne, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Teaching about climate science presents some unique challenges. Unlike many other science topics, mitigation and adaptation to climate change will require students to take action. This article outlines five major challenges to communicating about climate change in the classroom, drawing on research in environmental psychology: scepticism,…

Building climate resilience into perennial agroecosystems for adaptation to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adapting to future climate changes will require resilient agricultural systems. Resiliency can be thought of as the ability of an ecosystem to bounce back and persist after a disturbance or shock. Stressors or perturbations may be more severe in the future because of human-induced climate change. On...

Quantification of the impacts of climate change and human agricultural activities on oasis water requirements in an arid region: a case study of the Heihe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xingran; Shen, Yanjun

2018-03-01

Ecological deterioration in arid regions caused by agricultural development has become a global issue. Understanding water requirements of the oasis ecosystems and the influences of human agricultural activities and climate change is important for the sustainable development of oasis ecosystems and water resource management in arid regions. In this study, water requirements of the main oasis in Heihe River basin during 1986-2013 were analyzed and the amount showed a sharp increase from 10.8 × 108 m3 in 1986 to 19.0 × 108 m3 in 2013. Both human agricultural activities and climate change could lead to the increase in water requirement. To quantify the contributions of agricultural activities and climate change to the increase in water requirements, partial derivative and slope method were used. Results showed that climate change and human agricultural activities, such as oasis expansion and changes in land cropping structure, has contributed to the increase in water requirement at rates of 6.9, 58.1, and 25.3 %, respectively. Overall, human agricultural activities were the dominant forces driving the increase in water requirement. In addition, the contribution of oasis expanding to the increased water requirement was significantly greater than that of other concerned variables. This reveals that controlling the oasis scale is extremely important and effective for balancing water for agriculture and ecosystems and to achieving a sustainable oasis development in arid regions.

The Fate of the World is in your hands: computer gaming for multi-faceted climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a multi-faceted (or 'wicked') problem. True climate literacy therefore requires understanding not only the workings of the climate system, but also the current and potential future impacts of climate change and sea level rise on individuals, communities and countries around the world, as noted in the US Global Change Research Program's (2009) Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The asymmetric nature of climate change impacts, whereby the world's poorest countries have done the least to cause the problem but will suffer disproportionate consequences, has also been widely noted. Education in climate literacy therefore requires an element of ethics in addition to physical and social sciences. As if addressing these multiple aspects of climate change were not challenging enough, polling data has repeatedly shown that many members of the public tend to see climate change as a far away problem affecting people remote from them at a point in the future, but not themselves. This perspective is likely shared by many students. Computer gaming provides a possible solution to the combined problems of, on the one hand, addressing the multi-faceted nature of climate change, and, on the other hand, making the issue real to students. Fate of the World, a game produced by the company Red Redemption, has been used on several occasions in a small (20-30 students) introductory level general education course on global warming at Weber State University. Players are required to balance difficult decisions about energy investment while managing regional political disputes and attempting to maintain minimum levels of development in the world's poorer countries. By providing a realistic "total immersion" experience, the game has the potential to make climate change issues more immediate to players, and presents them with the ethical dilemmas inherent in climate change. This presentation reports on the use of Fate of the World in an educational setting, highlighting student experiences and lessons learned from two attempts to use the game as a tool for teaching the multi-faceted nature of climate change.

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.

PubMed

Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J

2013-08-01

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region's attitude towards climate change science, policy, and the stances taken by other regions on climate change. The professor will provide a model of integrative research using the U.S. as a focus, and on discussion days, prompt a sort of United Nations discussion on each of these topics with the intention of having the students look at climate change from a different point of view that contrasts their current U.S.-centric view, as well as realize the interdependence of regions particularly in regards to climate change.

Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water requirement in Heihe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Dongmei; Yan, Denghua; Xu, Xinyi; Gao, Yu

2017-02-01

Climate change has significantly altered the temperature rhythm which is a key factor for the growth and phenophase of the crop. And temperature change further affects crop water requirement and irrigation system. In the north-west of China, one of the most important crop production bases is Heihe River basin where the observed phenological data is scarce. This study thus first adopted accumulated temperature threshold (ATT) method to define the phenological stages of the crop, and analysed the effect of climate change on phenological stages and water requirement of the crop during growing season. The results indicated the ATT was available for the determination of spring wheat phenological stages. The start dates of all phenological stages became earlier and the growing season length (days) was reduced by 7 days under climate change. During the growing season, water requirement without consideration of phenophase change has been increased by 26.1 mm, while that with consideration of phenophase change was featured in the decrease of water requirement by 50 mm. When temperature increased by 1°C on average, the changes were featured in the 2 days early start date of growing season, 2 days decrease of growing season length, and the 1.4 mm increase of water requirement, respectively.

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandford, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

The impact of climate change on America's forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Richard Birdsey

2000-01-01

This report documents trends and impacts of climate change on America's forests as required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974. Recent research on the impact of climate and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant productivity is synthesized. Modeling analyses explore the potential impact of climate changes on forests, wood products, and carbon in...

77 FR 74175 - Solicitation of Review Editors for the Draft Report of the National Climate Assessment and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-13

... impacts of climate change upon the United States; and to provide advice and recommendations toward the... to produce a proposed National Climate Assessment that meets the requirements of the Global Change... Report Chapters: Our Changing Climate; Water Resources; Energy Supply and Use; Transportation...

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process of the development of the climate scenarios; *) users are involved already in the early phases of the development of new scenarios, among others in the following way: **) workshops on users' requirements to check whether they have changed and to get more information; **) feedback group of users to get more detailed feedback on the modes of communication; **) newsletter with information on the progress and procedures to be followed and separate workshops for researchers and policy makers with different levels of detail; **) projects together with impact researchers: tailoring of data and in order to be able to present impact information consistent with the climate scenarios much earlier. During the presentation more detailed information will be given on the interaction with users.

Climate change adaptation strategies for federal forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA: ecological, policy, and socio-economic perspectives

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; Thomas W. Giesen; Frederick J. Swanson; Jerry F. Franklin; Denise Lach; K. Norman Johnson

2010-01-01

Conserving biological diversity in a changing climate poses major challenges for land managers and society. Effective adaptive strategies for dealing with climate change require a socioecological systems perspective. We highlight some of the projected ecological responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A and identify possible adaptive actions that...

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

2017-08-01

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2-3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

Climate change : U.S. federal laws and policies related to greenhouse gas reductions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-02-22

Climate change is generally viewed as a global issue, but proposed responses generally require action at the national level. In 1992, the United States ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which called on in...

Global Climate Change and NEPA: The Difficulty with Cumulative Impacts Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-18

This paper will provide a survey of the current requirements under the law for addressing global climate change in NEPA documents, along with various...methodologies for quantifying the potential global climate change impacts of federal actions subject to NEPA.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

PubMed

Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

2015-02-01

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Womeldorff, P.J.

1995-12-31

This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

Connecting Stakeholders and Climate Science: A Summary of Farmer, Rancher, and Forester Climate Data Needs and Climate Change Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.

2015-12-01

The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

2017-08-01

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2016-01-01

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

How Five Master Teachers Teach about Climate Chang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloch, L.

2015-12-01

The AGU Position Statement, "Human-Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action," calls on scientists to "[work] with stakeholders to identify relevant information, and [to convey] understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public". Everyday, K-12 teachers communicate with an important segment of the general public, and they represent important stakeholders with unique needs. The terms 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', and 'climate change' appear nowhere in the 1996 National Science Education Standards, but under the Next Generation Science Standards, millions of teachers- most of whom have little to no experience teaching about climate change- will be required to cover the topic. This presentation discusses research conducted with five veteran public school teachers, each of whom has been teaching about climate change for many years. The group comprises three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. The study examined: 1) What these teachers teach about climate change; 2) How they teach about climate change; 3) What resources they use in teaching and learning about climate change; and 4) How they think the scientific community can support teachers in their efforts to teach about climate change. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they all said that the academic community can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Scientists working with K-12 teachers can build on the work of these master teachers, and attendees can access detailed descriptions of all of the lessons and the associated learning materials.

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Satellite orbit and data sampling requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William

1993-01-01

Climate forcings and feedbacks vary over a wide range of time and space scales. The operation of non-linear feedbacks can couple variations at widely separated time and space scales and cause climatological phenomena to be intermittent. Consequently, monitoring of global, decadal changes in climate requires global observations that cover the whole range of space-time scales and are continuous over several decades. The sampling of smaller space-time scales must have sufficient statistical accuracy to measure the small changes in the forcings and feedbacks anticipated in the next few decades, while continuity of measurements is crucial for unambiguous interpretation of climate change. Shorter records of monthly and regional (500-1000 km) measurements with similar accuracies can also provide valuable information about climate processes, when 'natural experiments' such as large volcanic eruptions or El Ninos occur. In this section existing satellite datasets and climate model simulations are used to test the satellite orbits and sampling required to achieve accurate measurements of changes in forcings and feedbacks at monthly frequency and 1000 km (regional) scale.

Sustained Assessment Metadata as a Pathway to Trustworthiness of Climate Science Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, S. M.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

The Sustained Assessment process has produced a suite of climate change reports: The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, The State Climate Summaries, as well as the anticipated Climate Science Special Report and Fourth National Climate Assessment. Not only are these groundbreaking reports of climate change science, they are also the first suite of climate science reports to provide access to complex metadata directly connected to the report figures and graphics products. While the basic metadata documentation requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, Sustained Assessment products are also deemed Highly Influential Scientific Assessments, which further requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the Sustained Assessment embarked on building a system for not only collecting and documenting metadata to the required standards, but one that also provides consumers unprecedented access to the underlying data and methods. As our process and documentation have evolved, the value of both continue to grow in parallel with the consumer expectation of quality, accessible climate science information. This presentation will detail the how the TSU accomplishes the mandated requirements with their metadata collection and documentation process, as well as the technical solution designed to demonstrate compliance while also providing access to the content for the general public. We will also illustrate how our accessibility platforms guide consumers through the Assessment science at a level of transparency that builds trust and confidence in the report content.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Fostering Hope in Climate Change Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swim, Janet K.; Fraser, John

2013-01-01

Climate Change is a complex set of issues with large social and ecological risks. Addressing it requires an attentive and climate literate population capable of making informed decisions. Informal science educators are well-positioned to teach climate science and motivate engagement, but many have resisted the topic because of self-doubt about…

Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

2008-08-01

There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

78 FR 69104 - Second Allocation, Waivers, and Alternative Requirements for Grantees Receiving Community...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-18

... analyses of risks to infrastructure sectors from climate change and other hazards, such as the Northeast... interdependencies within and across communities and infrastructure sectors; changes to climate and development... biodiversity, and conserve natural resources in the face of a changing climate . . .'' h. HUD Review of Covered...

76 FR 36143 - Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge, Kent County, DE; Comprehensive Conservation Plan and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-21

.... During public scoping, we may identify additional issues. Climate Change and Interior Marsh Loss A growing body of evidence indicates that accelerating climate change, associated with increasing global.... Successful conservation strategies will require an understanding of climate change and the ability to predict...

Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

2008-01-01

The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.;

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

2011-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

Will climate change increase irrigation requirements in agriculture of Central Europe? A simulation study for Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Nuske, Robert S; Schröder, Winfried

2014-01-01

By example of a region in Northern Germany (County of Uelzen), this study investigates whether climate change is likely to require adaption of agricultural practices such as irrigation in Central Europe. Due to sandy soils with low water retention capacity and occasional insufficient rainfall, irrigation is a basic condition for agricultural production in the county of Uelzen. Thus, in the framework of the comprehensive research cluster Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland ( NaLaMa-nT ), we investigated whether irrigation might need to be adapted to changing climatic conditions. To this end, results from regionalised climate change modelling were coupled with soil- and crop-specific evapotranspiration models to calculate potential amounts of irrigation to prevent crop failures. Three different runs of the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 were used for the time period until 2070. The results show that the extent of probable necessary irrigation will likely increase in the future. For the scenario run with the highest temperature rise, the results suggest that the amount of ground water presently allowed to be extracted for irrigation might not be sufficient in the future to retain common agricultural pattern. The investigation at hand exemplifies data requirements and methods to estimate irrigation needs under climate change conditions. Restriction of ground water withdrawal by German environmental regulation may require an adaptation of crop selection and alterations in agricultural practice also in regions with comparable conditions.

Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

PubMed

Stern, Nicholas

2015-08-07

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

Economic development, climate and values: making policy

PubMed Central

Stern, Nicholas

2015-01-01

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

The application of genomics and bioinformatics to accelerate crop improvement in a changing climate.

PubMed

Batley, Jacqueline; Edwards, David

2016-04-01

The changing climate and growing global population will increase pressure on our ability to produce sufficient food. The breeding of novel crops and the adaptation of current crops to the new environment are required to ensure continued food production. Advances in genomics offer the potential to accelerate the genomics based breeding of crop plants. However, relating genomic data to climate related agronomic traits for use in breeding remains a huge challenge, and one which will require coordination of diverse skills and expertise. Bioinformatics, when combined with genomics has the potential to help maintain food security in the face of climate change through the accelerated production of climate ready crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting agriculture to climate change.

PubMed

Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-12-11

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

77 FR 29322 - Updating State Residential Building Energy Efficiency Codes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-17

... supporting the change to the SHGC requirements in climate zone 4. Specifically, RECA supported the... to change Climate Zone 3 from R13 to either R20 or R13+5 ci.'' (CFEC, No. 2 at p. 2) In response, DOE... difference of 50 Pascals (5 ACH50) in climate zone 1 and climate zone 2; and 3 air changes/hour (3 ACH50) in...

Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Dale, V. H.

1994-10-07

Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

The climatic and hydrologic history of southern Nevada during the late Quaternary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.; Carter, C.

Understanding climate change during the expected life span of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, requires estimates of future climate boundary conditions. These climate boundary conditions are governed by changes in the Earth's orbital properties (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) that determine insolation. Subcycles of the 400,000 year insolation-controlled climate cycles last approximately 100,000 years. This report describes the changes which have occurred in the climatic history of Southern Nevada during the past 400,000 years. These changes provide a basis for understanding the changes which may occur during the long-term future in this area.

SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Junichi

A web application for a simple climate model - SEEPLUS (a Simple climate model to Examine Emission Pathways Leading to Updated Scenarios) - has been developed. SEEPLUS consists of carbon-cycle and climate-change modules, through which it provides the information infrastructure required to perform climate-change experiments, even on a millennial-timescale. The main objective of this application is to share the latest scientific knowledge acquired from climate modeling studies among the different stakeholders involved in climate-change issues. Both the carbon-cycle and climate-change modules employ impulse response functions (IRFs) for their key processes, thereby enabling the model to integrate the outcome from an ensemble of complex climate models. The current IRF parameters and forcing manipulation are basically consistent with, or within an uncertainty range of, the understanding of certain key aspects such as the equivalent climate sensitivity and ocean CO2 uptake data documented in representative literature. The carbon-cycle module enables inverse calculation to determine the emission pathway required in order to attain a given concentration pathway, thereby providing a flexible way to compare the module with more advanced modeling studies. The module also enables analytical evaluation of its equilibrium states, thereby facilitating the long-term planning of global warming mitigation.

Climate Change: Could It Help Develop "Adaptive Expertise"?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Erica; Horton, Graeme; Blashki, Grant; Seidel, Bastian M.

2012-01-01

Preparing health practitioners to respond to the rising burden of disease from climate change is emerging as a priority in health workforce policy and planning. However, this issue is hardly represented in the medical education research. The rapidly evolving wide range of direct and indirect consequences of climate change will require health…

Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

2011-01-01

This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An increase in abnormal climate change patterns and unsustainable irrigation in uplands cause drought and affect agricultural water security, crop productivity, and price fluctuations. In this study, we developed a soil moisture model to project irrigation requirements (IR) for upland crops under cl...

Identifying climate risk perceptions, information needs, and barriers to information exchange among public land managers.

PubMed

Peters, Casey B; Schwartz, Mark W; Lubell, Mark N

2018-03-01

Meeting ecosystem management challenges posed by climate change requires building effective communication channels among researchers, planners and practitioners to focus research on management issues requiring new knowledge. We surveyed resource managers within two regions of the western United States regions to better understand perceived risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change and barriers to obtaining and using relevant climate science information in making ecosystem management decisions. We sought to understand what types of climate science information resource managers find most valuable, and the formats in which they prefer to receive climate science information. We found broad concern among natural resource managers in federal agencies that climate change will make it more difficult for them to achieve their management goals. Primary barriers to incorporating climate science into planning are distributed among challenges identifying, receiving, and interpreting appropriate science and a lack of direction provided by agency leadership needed to meaningfully use this emerging science in resource planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Lukashin, C.; Thome, K. J.; Baize, R. R.

2014-12-01

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

Obama Presents Far-Reaching Climate Plan, Addresses Keystone Pipeline Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-07-01

Stating that climate change "is a challenge that does not pause for partisan gridlock," U.S. President Barack Obama took matters into his own hands and presented a broad-based climate action plan on 25 June. The plan, which relies on existing administrative authority and does not require congressional approval, includes three primary objectives: cutting carbon pollution in the United States, preparing the nation for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to address climate change.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi

This study explores the interactions between climate and thermoelectric generation in the U.S. by coupling an Earth System Model with a thermoelectric power generation model. We validated model simulations of power production for selected power plants (~44% of existing thermoelectric capacity) against reported values. In addition, we projected future usable capacity for existing power plants under two different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average thermoelectric generating capacity by 2%-3% by the 2060s. Reductions up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. This study concludes that the impactmore » of climate change on the U.S. thermoelectric power system is less than previous estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially-disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. This work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs in which the operation of power plants are managed, and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.« less

Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

2017-08-01

Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

Treesearch

Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer Hirsch

2010-01-01

Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

Responding to climate change impacts in the Sky Island Region: From planning to action

Treesearch

Louise W. Misztal; Gregg Garfin; Lara Hansen

2013-01-01

Addressing the increasing effects of climate change on natural resources requires multiple organizations, agencies, and institutions working cooperatively to incorporate climate change into resource management. In the Sky Island region of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, Sky Island Alliance, a non-governmental organization, has convened a series of...

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

PubMed

Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

2016-10-01

Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.

Climate-driven changes in forest succession and the influence of management on forest carbon dynamics in the Puget Lowlands of Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Danelle M. Laflower; Matthew D. Hurteau; George W. Koch; Malcolm P. North; Bruce A. Hungate

2016-01-01

Projecting the response of forests to changing climate requires understanding how biotic and abiotic controls on tree growth will change over time. As temperature and interannual precipitation variability increase, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to changing climate. Management actions that alter composition...

Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into regulatory assessments of chemical risk and injury requires an integrated examination of both chemical and non-chemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC, such as temperature, precipitation, salinity and pH...

Media Articles Describing Advances in Scientific Research as a Vehicle for Student Engagement Fostering Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brassell, S. C.

2014-12-01

"Records of Global Climate Change" enables students to fulfill the science component of an undergraduate distribution requirement in "Critical Approaches" at IU Bloomington. The course draws students from all disciplines with varying levels of understanding of scientific approaches and often limited familiarity with climate issues. Its discussion sessions seek to foster scientific literacy via an alternating series of assignments focused on a combination of exercises that involve either examination and interpretation of on-line climate data or consideration and assessment of the scientific basis of new discoveries about climate change contained in recently published media articles. The final assignment linked to the discussion sessions requires students to review and summarize the topics discussed during the semester. Their answers provide direct evidence of newly acquired abilities to assimilate and evaluate scientific information on a range of topics related to climate change. In addition, student responses to an end-of-semester survey confirm that the vast majority considers that their knowledge and understanding of climate change was enhanced, and unsolicited comments note that the discussion sessions contributed greatly to this advancement. Many students remarked that the course's emphasis on examination of paleoclimate records helped their comprehension of the unprecedented nature of present-day climate trends. Others reported that their views on the significance of climate change had been transformed, and some commented that they now felt well equipped to engage in discussions about climate change because they were better informed about its scientific basis and facts.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

2016-07-01

This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.

Adaptation of forest ecosystems to air pollution and climate change: a global assessment on research priorities

Treesearch

Y. Serengil; A. Augustaitis; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Nancy Grulke; A.R. Kozovitz; R. Matyssek; G. Müller-Starck; M. Schaub; G. Wieser; A.A. Coskun; E. Paoletti

2011-01-01

Climate change and air pollution are two of the anthropogenic stressors that require international collaboration. Influence mechanisms and combating strategies towards them have similarities to some extent. Impacts of air pollution and climate change have long been studied under IUFRO Research Group 7.01 and state of the art findings are presented at biannual meetings...

Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change.

Treesearch

Ronald P. Neilson; Louis F. Pitelka; Allen M. Solomon; Ran Nathan; Guy F. Midgley; Jóse M. Fragoso; Heike Lischke; Ken Thompson

2005-01-01

The rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the migration rates of most plant species. The replacement of dominant species by locally rare species may require decades, and extinctions may occur when plant species cannot migrate fast enough to escape the consequences of climate change. Such lags may impair ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and...

Multidisciplinary approaches to climate change questions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.; LePage, Ben A.

2011-01-01

Multidisciplinary approaches are required to address the complex environmental problems of our time. Solutions to climate change problems are good examples of situations requiring complex syntheses of ideas from a vast set of disciplines including science, engineering, social science, and the humanities. Unfortunately, most ecologists have narrow training, and are not equipped to bring their environmental skills to the table with interdisciplinary teams to help solve multidisciplinary problems. To address this problem, new graduate training programs and workshops sponsored by various organizations are providing opportunities for scientists and others to learn to work together in multidisciplinary teams. Two examples of training in multidisciplinary thinking include those organized by the Santa Fe Institute and Dahlem Workshops. In addition, many interdisciplinary programs have had successes in providing insight into climate change problems including the International Panel on Climate Change, the Joint North American Carbon Program, the National Academy of Science Research Grand Challenges Initiatives, and the National Academy of Science. These programs and initiatives have had some notable success in outlining some of the problems and solutions to climate change. Scientists who can offer their specialized expertise to interdisciplinary teams will be more successful in helping to solve the complex problems related to climate change.

Changes in forest habitat classes under alternative climate and land-use change scenarios in the northeast and midwest, USA

Treesearch

Brian G. Tavernia; Mark D. Nelson; Michael E. Goerndt; Brian F. Walters; Chris Toney

2013-01-01

Large-scale and long-term habitat management plans are needed to maintain the diversity of habitat classes required by wildlife species. Planning efforts would benefit from assessments of potential climate and land-use change effects on habitats. We assessed climate and land-use driven changes in areas of closed- and open-canopy forest across the Northeast and Midwest...

Guidelines for the adaptation to floods in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

A decrease of flood damages in the future requires not only adaptation to flood caused by present day climate, but also climate change effects on floods should be taken into account. The paper illustrates the need to take into account changing climate conditions in flood adaptation strategies and to apply in practice the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is based on a number of policy instruments, economic instruments, political signals, and also, on the effects of climate change on floods and collaboration across national, regional and local administrative units. The guidelines for a country adaptation to floods in a changing climate are outlined. A comparison of the adaptive capacities in Poland and Norway is used to illustrate the need for the implementation of proposed guidelines to assure flood risk management under climate change in a sustainable way.

Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewart, Jean Marie

Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual modelmore » of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).« less

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

EPA Science Inventory

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

Linking research, education and public engagement in geoscience: Leadership and strategic partnerships (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harcourt, P.

2017-12-01

Addressing the urgent issue of climate change requires mitigation and adaptation actions on individual to global scales, and appropriate action must be based upon geoscience literacy across population sectors. The NSF-funded MADE CLEAR (Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research) project provides a coordinated approach to embed climate change into education programs at the university level, in formal K12 classrooms, and among informal educators. We have worked with state agencies, university systems, non-profit organizations, and community groups to establish and support research-based education about climate change. In this panel I will describe how MADE CLEAR approached the task of infusing climate change education across sectors in the highly diverse states of Delaware and Maryland. I will share the characteristics of our strongest alliances, an analysis of significant barriers to climate change education, and our perspective on the outlook for the future of climate change education.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R.

2009-12-01

Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The disaster research and emergency management communities have shown over that early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards (including those resulting from low levels of preparedness), existing strategies on the ground, and likely pathways to mitigate the loss and damage in the particular context in which they arise. Effective adaptations require information for long-term infrastructural planning and as critically deliberative mechanisms to structure learning and redesign in the face of emergent problems. Adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than preventing problems. Reduction in vulnerability will require anticipatory deliberative processes focused on incorporating adaptation into long-term municipal and public service planning, including energy, water, and health services, in the face of changing climate-related risks combined with ongoing changes in population, land use and development patterns.

Mediterranean irrigation under climate change: more efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, M.; Shi, S.; von Bloh, W.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

2015-08-01

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080-2090. Future demographic change and technological improvements in irrigation systems are accounted for, as is the spread of climate forcing, warming levels and potential realization of the CO2-fertilization effect. Vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL after a large development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops. At present the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries like Syria, Egypt and Turkey have higher saving potentials than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Different crops show different magnitude of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, being the increases most pronounced in agricultural trees. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4 and 18 % from climate change alone if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved (2 °C global warming combined with full CO2-fertilization effect, and 5 °C global warming combined with no CO2-fertilization effect, respectively). Population growth increases these numbers to 22 and 74 %, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35 % more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. Nevertheless, water scarcity might pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios. The results presented in this study point to the necessity of performing further research on climate-friendly agro-ecosystems in order to assess, on the one side, their degree of resilience to climate shocks, and on the other side, their adaptation potential when confronted with higher temperatures and changes in water availability.

Social Climate Science: A New Vista for Psychological Science.

PubMed

Pearson, Adam R; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Romero-Canyas, Rainer

2016-09-01

The recent Paris Agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions, adopted by 195 nations at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, signaled unprecedented commitment by world leaders to address the human social aspects of climate change. Indeed, climate change increasingly is recognized by scientists and policymakers as a social issue requiring social solutions. However, whereas psychological research on intrapersonal and some group-level processes (e.g., political polarization of climate beliefs) has flourished, research into other social processes-such as an understanding of how nonpartisan social identities, cultural ideologies, and group hierarchies shape public engagement on climate change-has received substantially less attention. In this article, we take stock of current psychological approaches to the study of climate change to explore what is "social" about climate change from the perspective of psychology. Drawing from current interdisciplinary perspectives and emerging empirical findings within psychology, we identify four distinct features of climate change and three sets of psychological processes evoked by these features that are fundamentally social and shape both individual and group responses to climate change. Finally, we consider how a more nuanced understanding of the social underpinnings of climate change can stimulate new questions and advance theory within psychology. © The Author(s) 2016.

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.

2016-01-01

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

PubMed Central

McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

Managing Community Resilience to Climate Extremes, Rapid Unsustainable Urbanization, Emergencies of Scarcity, and Biodiversity Crises by Use of a Disaster Risk Reduction Bank.

PubMed

Canyon, Deon V; Burkle, Frederick M; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

Earth's climate is changing and national and international decision-makers are recognizing that global health security requires urgent attention and a significant investment to protect the future. In most locations, current data are inadequate to conduct a full assessment of the direct and indirect health impacts of climate change. All states require this information to evaluate community-level resilience to climate extremes and climate change. A model that is being used successfully in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand is recommended to generate rapid information to assist decision-makers in the event of a disaster. The model overcomes barriers to success inherent in the traditional ''top-down'' approach to managing crises and recognizes the capacity of capable citizens and community organizers to facilitate response and recovery if provided the opportunity and resources. Local information is a prerequisite for strategic and tactical statewide planning. Time and resources are required to analyze risks within each community and what is required to prevent (mitigate), prepare, respond, recover (rehabilitate), anticipate, and assess any threatening events. Specific requirements at all levels from state to community must emphasize community roles by focusing on how best to maintain, respond, and recover public health protections and the infrastructure necessary for health security.

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2015-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity.

PubMed

Macpherson, Cheryl C; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

2015-07-01

Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen.

Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity

PubMed Central

Macpherson, Cheryl C.; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

2015-01-01

Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen. PMID:26180551

Climate Change and Agriculture in the U.S.: Effects and Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Rippey, B.; Walthall, C. L.; Hatfield, J.; Backlund, P. W.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in the United States has followed a path of continual adaptation to a wide range of factors throughout its history. However, observational evidence, supported by an understanding of the physical climate system, shows that human-induced climate change is underway in the U.S. and even now causing changes for which there is no historical reference for producers. Temperatures have increased and precipitation patterns have changed; the incidence, frequency, and extent of pest infestations have been altered, as well as the natural resource base (water, air, and soils) upon which production depends. Each factor challenges agricultural management as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases rise. These trends are likely to continue over the next century. Importantly, a gap exists between U.S. agricultural producers and managers' needs related to climate-driven problems and the information that research currently offers them. In the past, agricultural research into climate change effects has largely focused on mean values of precipitation and temperature. Today's management requirements, however, often demand immediate response on shorter time scales to address abrupt, often novel needs. Further complicating this reality, future decisions will likely require even greater emphasis on managing under increasing levels of uncertainty, and planning for and adjusting to the extremes. Research is moving to better address these emerging issues for the relevant timescales and parameters in order to allow the formulation of improved and resilient management strategies that apply to a future in which past experience has become less applicable. A climate-ready U.S. agricultural system requires easy access to useable climate knowledge and technical resources, improved climate risk management strategies, new processes to support effective adaptive actions, and the development of sustainable production systems resilient to climate effects. Mainstreaming climate knowledge improves adaptive capacity of the agricultural system by ensuring that land managers, technical advisors, researchers, private businesspeople, government program managers, and policymakers are aware of current and projected climate impacts and can access best management practices to reduce risks and capture opportunities.

Climate change, aeroallergens, natural particulates, and human health in Australia: state of the science and policy.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John; Bennett, Charmian Margaret

2011-03-01

The objective of this article is to systematically review and assess what is known about the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates, and the associated human health impacts, and to examine responses to these in Australia, focusing on adaptation. Prior research was searched using several general and discipline-specific research databases. The review concludes that whereas there is little original research on the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates in Australia, or the human health consequences of these, research from overseas suggests that these impacts may be adverse and of considerable magnitude. More research is required to assess the impacts of climate change on these airborne particles and associated diseases in Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific. There are important policy implications of this review. There is a need for enhanced monitoring of the atmospheric environment and associated health conditions in Australia. Education about climate change and human health in general, and air quality and related diseases specifically, is required for the community, health professionals, and others. Improvements are needed in the preparedness of infrastructure, such as health care facilities and early warning systems, particularly for aeroallergens, and all of these adaptive policy responses require further research.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3Chem): Online resources for teaching and learning chemistry through the rich context of climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenzie, L.; Versprille, A.; Towns, M.; Mahaffy, P.; Martin, B.; Kirchhoff, M.

2013-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing humanity. Many of the important underlying concepts require mental models that are built on a fundamental understanding of chemistry, yet connections to climate science and global climate change are largely missing from undergraduate chemistry courses for science majors. In Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3Chem), we have developed and piloted a set of online modules that addresses this gap by teaching core chemistry concepts through the rich context of climate science. These interactive web-based digital learning experiences enable students to learn about isotopes and their relevance in determining historical temperature records, IR absorption by greenhouse gases, and acid/base chemistry and the impacts on changing ocean pH. The efficacy of these tools and this approach has been assessed through measuring changes in students' understanding about both climate change and core chemistry concepts.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

PubMed Central

Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

2011-01-01

Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy.

PubMed

Roeser, Sabine

2017-10-01

Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological and ethical perspectives by focusing on the complex interrelations between uncertainty, values and policy in this context. This special issue brings together scholars from economics, social sciences and philosophy in order to address these challenges.

Making climate change tangible for strategic adaptation planning: The Climate Corridor Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlowsky, Boris; Calanca, Pierluigi; Ali, Irshad; Ali, Jawad; Elguera Hilares, Agustin; Huggel, Christian; Khan, Inamullah; Neukom, Raphael; Nizami, Arjumand; Qazi, Muhammad Abbas; Robledo, Carmenza; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidt, Kaspar

2017-04-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon and difficult to grasp. Although its importance is generally acknowledged, impacts of (future) climate change on human activities are in many cases not taken into account explicitly, in particular when planning development projects. This is due to technical and conceptual challenges, missing financial and human resources and competing priorities. Neglecting climate change can become problematic, if a proposed activity requires specific climatological conditions under which it becomes feasible, a simple example being crop cultivation that needs certain temperature an d precipitation ranges. Comparing such ``climate corridors'' to future climate projections provides an intuitive and low-cost yet quantitative means for assessing needs for, and viability of, adaptation activities under climate change - a "poor man's approach" to climate suitability analysis. A chief advantage of this approach is its modest demand on data. Three case studies from Pakistan, Peru and Tajikistan show that climate corridor analysis can deliver robust results and can be used to efficiently communicate risks and challenges of climate change to partners and stakeholders in the developing countries.

Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

2011-01-01

This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

How will climate change affect spatial planning in agricultural and natural environments? Examples from three Dutch case study regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom-Zandstra, Margaretha; Paulissen, Maurice; Agricola, Herman; Schaap, Ben

2009-11-01

Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on amore » grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.« less

Barrier Busting: Leapfrogging Zombie Science Arguments to Get to Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassol, S. J.

2015-12-01

Climate literacy certainly requires a basic understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change, and this has motivated our community to focus on ever better ways to communicate this knowledge. This has been very worthwhile. But continuing to dwell on refuting climate myths that seem impossible to put to rest has often kept us mired in the framing of those who reject the science and seek to stall action. Moving past misconceptions and barriers may require added emphasis on responses to climate change. Research focused on the American public has revealed a broader acceptance of the reality of climate change than many people think. In particular, there is broad support for solutions, such as clean energy, even among those who say they do not accept that human activity is the primary driver of climate change. This presents an opportunity to open a side door to understanding that avoids unproductive confrontation with ideological barriers. Research is also revealing effective models for behavioral change that tap into social norms. Leapfrogging basic science arguments and going straight to solutions that most agree on can help us clear some of the barriers to understanding and the hurdles to action.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China

DOE PAGES

Ye, Qing; Yang, Xiaoguang; Dai, Shuwei; ...

2015-06-05

Here, we discuss that rice is one of the main crops grown in southern China. Global climate change has significantly altered the local water availability and temperature regime for rice production. In this study, we explored the influence of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, rice cropping systems and crop water requirements (CWRs) during the growing season for historical (from 1951 to 2010) and future (from 2011 to 2100) time periods. The results indicated that the land areas suitable for rice cropping systems shifted northward and westward from 1951 to 2100 but with different amplitudes.

Public Reception of Climate Science: Coherence, Reliability, and Independence.

PubMed

Hahn, Ulrike; Harris, Adam J L; Corner, Adam

2016-01-01

Possible measures to mitigate climate change require global collective actions whose impacts will be felt by many, if not all. Implementing such actions requires successful communication of the reasons for them, and hence the underlying climate science, to a degree that far exceeds typical scientific issues which do not require large-scale societal response. Empirical studies have identified factors, such as the perceived level of consensus in scientific opinion and the perceived reliability of scientists, that can limit people's trust in science communicators and their subsequent acceptance of climate change claims. Little consideration has been given, however, to recent formal results within philosophy concerning the relationship between truth, the reliability of evidence sources, the coherence of multiple pieces of evidence/testimonies, and the impact of (non-)independence between sources of evidence. This study draws on these results to evaluate exactly what has (and, more important, has not yet) been established in the empirical literature about the factors that bias the public's reception of scientific communications about climate change. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?

PubMed

Cliquet, A

2014-10-01

The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.

Remote sensing applications for estimating changes on crop evapotranspiration of the most water intensive crops, due to climate change in Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadavid, G.; Neocleous, D.; Stylianou, A.; Markou, M.; Kountios, G.; Hadjimitsis, D.

2016-08-01

Water allocation to crops, and especially to the most water intensive ones, has always been of great importance in agricultural process. Deficit or excess water irrigation quantities could create either crop health related problems or water over-consumption situation which lead to stored water reduction and toxic material depletion to deeper ground layers, respectively. In this context, and under the current conditions, where Cyprus is facing effects of climate changes, purpose of this study is basically to estimate the needed crop water requirements of the past (1995-2004) and the corresponding ones of the present (2005-2015) in order to test if there were any significant changes regarding the crop water requirements of the most water intensive trees in Cyprus. Mediterranean region has been identified as the region that will suffer the most from climate change. Thus the paper refers to effects of climate changes on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) using remotely sensed data from Landsat TM/ ETM+ / OLI employing a sound methodology used worldwide, the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). Though the general feeling is that of changes on climate will consequently affect ETc, the results have indicated that there is no significant effect of climate change on crop evapotranspiration, despite the fact that some climatic factors have changed. Applying Student's T-test, the mean values for the most water intensive trees in Cyprus of the 1994-2004 decade have shown no statistical difference from the mean values of 2005-2015 decade's for all the cases, concluding that the climate change taking place the last decades in Cyprus have either not affected the crop evapotranspiration or the crops have manage to adapt into the new environmental conditions through time.

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

PubMed

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

Correlations between Climate Change and the Modern European Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumińska, Anna

2017-10-01

The aim of the study was to analyze the links between climate change and the way modern cities are structured and responded to climate change. How do these changes affect building materials and technologies, or does climate change affect the type of technology and materials used? The most important results are the effects of analysing selected examples of a modern European building, the use of materials and technology, the adaptation of buildings to the changing climate. Selected examples of contemporary architecture from Germany, Italy and Denmark, Norway and Sweden. There are also examples in photographic documentation. The most important criteria affecting the objects are elements that shape the changing climate, as well as existing legal and technical requirements. The main conclusion was that modern urban space is adapted to the changing climate. Unprecedented climatic phenomena in this area: intense and sudden rain, snow, floods, strong winds, abundant sunshine, high temperature changes, greenhouse effect of the city - “island heat”, atmospheric pollution. Building materials and technologies contribute to the optimal conservation of natural resources, buildings are shaped in such a way as to ensure safety, resilience and environmental protection. However, there is still a need for continuous monitoring of climate change, criteria affecting the design and construction of urban and central facilities. Key words: energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change, contemporary architecture.

Niche overlap of competing carnivores across climatic gradients and the conservation implications of climate change at geographic range margins

Treesearch

William J. Zielinski; Jody M. Tucker; Kerry M. Rennie

2017-01-01

There is considerable interest in factors controlling “warm-edge” limits – the lower elevation and latitudinal edges of a species' range. Understanding whether conservation measures can mitigate anticipated change in climate requires consideration of future climate as well as species interactions. We explored niche relations of martens and fishers at their...

Climate change and Australia's healthcare system - risks, research and responses.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Blashki, Grant A; Capon, Anthony G; McMichael, Anthony J

2010-11-01

Climate change will affect human health, mostly adversely, resulting in a greater burden on the health care system, in addition to any other coexistent increases in demand (e.g. from Australia's increasingly ageing population). Understanding the extent to which health is likely to be affected by climate change will enable policy makers and practitioners to prepare for changing demands on the health care system. This will require prioritisation of key research questions and building research capacity in the field. There is an urgent need to better understand the implications of climate change for the distribution and prevalence of diseases, disaster preparedness and multidisciplinary service planning. Research is needed to understand the relationship of climate change to health promotion, policy evaluation and strategic financing of health services. Training of health care professionals about climate change and its effects will also be important in meeting long-term workforce demands.

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

PubMed

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-10-01

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

The health impacts of climate-related migration.

PubMed

Schwerdtle, Patricia; Bowen, Kathryn; McMichael, Celia

2017-12-11

Changes in climate, in conjunction with other drivers of mobility, shape human migration. While there is an increasing focus on the adaptive potential of migration, the health impacts of climate-related migration, including planned relocation and forced displacement, have not been thoroughly examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that migration is currently, and will increasingly be, influenced by environmental degradation and climate change, and that it needs to be addressed in a focused and coordinated manner. This paper examines the links between climate change, migration, and health, considering diverse migration responses, including immobility, forced displacement and planned migration, as well as the associated health risks and opportunities in different contexts. Using case studies, the paper illustrates strategies to reduce the health risks associated with climate change-related migration. While there is an increasing body of research examining the climate change-migration nexus, a dual approach is now required. This approach must include debate and further research regarding the health consequences and responses associated with climate migration as well as immediate strengthening of health systems to make them both climate resilient and migrant inclusive.

The impacts of climate change on global irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2011-12-01

Climate change tends to affect the irrigation water requirement of current irrigated agricultural land, and also changes the water availability for current rain-fed land by the end of this century. We use the most up-to-date climatic and crop datasets (e.g., global irrigated/rain-fed crop areas and grid level crop growing calendar (Portmann, Siebert and Döll, 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24)) to evaluate the requirements of currently irrigated land and the water deficit for rain-fed land for all major crops under current and projected climate. Six general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, are assembled using two methods, the Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), to deal with the GCM regional variability. It is found that the global irrigation requirement and the water deficit are both going to increase significantly under all scenarios, particularly under the A1B emission scenario. For example, the projected irrigation requirement is expected to increase by about 2500 million m3 for wheat, 3200 million m3 for maize and another 3300 million m3 for rice. At the same time, the water deficit for current rain-fed cropland will be widened by around 3000, 4000, 2100 million m3 for wheat, maize and rice respectively. Regional analysis is conducted for Africa, China, Europe, India, South America and the United States. It is found that the U.S. may expect the greatest rise in irrigation requirements for wheat and maize, while the South America may suffer the greatest increase for rice. In addition, Africa and the U.S. may face a larger water deficit for both wheat and maize on rain-fed land, and South America just for rice. In summary, climate change is likely to bring severe challenges for irrigation systems and make global water shortage even worse by the end of this century. These pressures will call for extensive adaptation measures. The change in crop water requirements and availability will lead to changes in regional food production, demand and trade, and will affect global food markets. It is also likely that the network and paths of the so-called global virtual water flow will be altered due to the impact of climate change on food production at the regional level.

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Charles H. Luce; Bruce E. Rieman; David E. Nagel; Erin E. Peterson; Dona L. Horan; Sharon Parkes; Gwynne L. Chandler

2010-01-01

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions...

The Hydrological Evolution of Mars as Recorded at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews-Hanna, J. C.; Horvath, D. G.

2017-12-01

The sedimentary deposits making up the Aeolis Mons sedimentary mound within Gale Crater preserve a record of the evolving hydrology and climate of Mars during the Late Noachian and Hesperian epochs. Aqueous sedimentary deposits including mudstones, deltaic deposits, and sulfate-cemented sediments indicate the past presence of liquid water on the surface. However, these observations alone do not strictly constrain the nature of the hydrology and climate at the time of deposition. We use models of the subsurface and surface hydrology to shed light on the conditions required to reproduce the observed deposits. Changes in the nature and composition of the deposits reflect changes in the balance between the surface and subsurface components of the hydrological cycle, driven by climate changes. Mudstones observed by the MSL rover at the base of the crater reflect lacustrine deposition under semi-arid conditions, with substantial fluid supply from both the surface (overland flow and direct precipitation) and subsurface. A transition at higher stratigraphic levels to sulfate-cemented sandstones required a change to a more arid climate, with the hydrology dominated by long-distance subsurface transport. Near the top of the mound, unaltered deposits indicate deposition under dry conditions, though this transition coincides with the natural limit on the rise of the water table imposed by the surrounding topography and does not require a change in climate. Erosion of the crater-filling sedimentary deposits to their present mound shape required a dramatic drop in the water table under hyper-arid conditions. Evidence for later lake stands in the Hesperian indicates transient returns to semi-arid conditions similar to those that prevailed during the Late Noachian. By coupling surface and orbital observations with hydrological modeling, we are able to make more specific constraints on the evolving climate and aridity of early Mars.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Baron, Jill S; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nate

2009-12-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D.; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A.; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2009-01-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Use of NARCCAP data to characterize regional climate uncertainty in the impact of global climate change on large river fish population: Missouri River sturgeon example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management strategies. The results from hierarchical analysis of uncertainty are used to study the relative change in weights of the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) under a 21st century climate scenario.

The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gao, Xiang; Fant, Charles; Blanc, Élodie; Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry; Reilly, John; Gueneau, Arthur

2014-08-01

We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 assessment subregions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a water resource system (WRS) component embedded within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are observed in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional interbasin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

Managing the health effects of temperature in response to climate change: challenges ahead.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Barnett, Adrian G; Xu, Zhiwei; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Turner, Lyle R; Tong, Shilu

2013-04-01

Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion. We examined how public health organizations should implement adaptation strategies and, second, how to improve the evidence base required to make an economic case for policies that will protect the public's health from heat events and climate change. Public health adaptation strategies to cope with heat events and climate change fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health risks. Strategies require a range of actions, including timely public health and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning, early warning systems, and assurance that health care and social systems are ready to act. Some of these actions are costly, and given scarce financial resources the implementation should be based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, research is required not only on the temperature-related health costs, but also on the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The scientific community must ensure that the health co-benefits of climate change policies are recognized, understood, and quantified. The integration of climate change adaptation into current public health practice is needed to ensure the adaptation strategies increase future resilience. The economic evaluation of temperature-related health costs and public health adaptation strategies are particularly important for policy decisions.

Assessing and quantifying changes in precipitation patterns using event-driven analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Studies have claimed that climate change may adversely affect precipitation patterns by increasing the occurrence of extreme events. The effects of climate change on precipitation is expected to take place over a long period of time and will require long-term data to demonstrate. Frequency analysis ...

CHARACTERIZE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND CHANGES IN CLIMATE, UV, AND LAND USE

EPA Science Inventory

Assessments of the long-term impacts of global changes in climate, ultraviolet (UV) radiation and land use on ecosystems require scientific data, concepts and models that describe the responses of ecosystem health to stresses related to the changes as well as information and mode...

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

PubMed

Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-07-14

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

PubMed Central

Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-01-01

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems. PMID:26172980

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-02-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

PubMed Central

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes. PMID:29461538

Mediterranean irrigation under climate change: more efficient irrigation needed to compensate for increases in irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, M.; Shi, S.; von Bloh, W.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

2016-03-01

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080-2090. Future demographic change and technological improvements in irrigation systems are taken into account, as is the spread of climate forcing, warming levels and potential realization of the CO2-fertilization effect. Vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land) after an extensive development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops. At present the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries such as Syria, Egypt and Turkey have a higher savings potential than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume on average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Different crops show different magnitudes of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, the increases being most pronounced in agricultural trees. The Mediterranean area as a whole may face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4 and 18 % from climate change alone if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved (4 and 18 % with 2 °C global warming combined with the full CO2-fertilization effect and 5 °C global warming combined with no CO2-fertilization effect, respectively). Population growth increases these numbers to 22 and 74 %, respectively, affecting mainly the southern and eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have a large water saving potential, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree for the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35 % more water than today if they implement some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. Nevertheless, water scarcity may pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios. The results presented in this study point to the necessity of performing further research on climate-friendly agro-ecosystems in order to assess, on the one hand, their degree of resilience to climate shocks and, on the other hand, their adaptation potential when confronted with higher temperatures and changes in water availability.

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

A climate-compatible approach to development practice by international humanitarian NGOs.

PubMed

Clarke, Matthew; de Cruz, Ian

2015-01-01

If current climate-change predictions prove accurate, non-linear change, including potentially catastrophic change, is possible and the environments in which international humanitarian NGOs operate will change figuratively and literally. This paper proposes that a new approach to development is required that takes changing climate into account. This 'climate-compatible approach' to development is a bleak shift from some of the current orthodox positions and will be a major challenge to international humanitarian NGOs working with the most vulnerable. However, it is necessary to address the challenges and context such NGOs face, and the need to be resilient and adaptive to these changes. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Hearing is prelude to senate showdown on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Two U.S. senators who are sponsoring legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have indicated that they will loosen the reduction requirements in an effort to attract additional support for the bill. Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and Joseph Lieberman (D-Connecticut) indicated they will offer the amended version in preparation for a Senate showdown on climate change expected later this fall.The Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 (S.139), originally introduced in January 2003, still would promote climate research, establish a mandatory carbon dioxide reduction program, and require affected industry sectors to reduce greenhouse emissions to year 2000 levels by the year 2010. However, McCain said the bill no longer would require further reductions, by the year 2016, to levels that existed in 1990. The bill also would be far less rigorous than the Kyoto Protocol.

USGS global change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

2009-01-01

Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

U.S. Army Field Demonstration of the Single Common Powertrain Lubricant (SCPL)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

for a full 2-years without changes in the basic climate location demonstrating the SCPL’s extended drain capabilities. All three field...This was done to highlight any oil changes completed, whether they were required or not. 4.1 BASIC CLIMATE – FT. BENNING GA For the basic...were controlled tightly to determine actual changes . Table 20. Ft. Wainwright Arctic Climate Vehicle Fleet 4.2.2 Mileage Accumulation Overall

Precipitation Indices as a Tool for Climate-Resilient Development in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.

2016-12-01

The local people living in the mountains of the Ancash Department in Peru have noticed changes in their water supply as climate change has altered precipitation patterns. They are seeking adaptation solutions to help guarantee the reliability of their water supply, but there has been very little analysis of historical data to evaluate and justify these adaptation solutions. In addition, Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance now requires that climate change be part of the vulnerability assessment for all public investment project proposals, but there are currently no tools or methods of data analysis for including climate change in vulnerability assessments. Compounding the difficulties of considering climate change in the sustainability of development projects is the scarcity of climate data in the region and the difficulty of accessing existing data. To counteract this problem, the Peruvian government recommends using local people's perceptions of change as a proxy for gauged climate data. This work focuses on precipitation data analysis in the mountains of Ancash, Peru. The objectives of this analysis were to determine the accuracy of the local population's perceptions of climate change and to investigate how changes in precipitation patterns might impact public investment projects. The precipitation data analysis was compared to a local study of perceptions of change to determine whether or not these perceptions might be used in lieu of gauged climate data. It appears that people's perceptions of precipitation trends do not accurately reflect the trends observed in the gauged data. The methods of analysis were designed so that the results may be useful for public investment projects with a particular emphasis on agricultural projects. The data were analyzed for trends, seasonal patterns and variability. Dry spells were examined, and the results indicate that droughts during the rainy season have become more frequent and of longer duration. This could have significant impact on agricultural projects. It is likely that the current practice of relying exclusively on wet season rainfall to meet crop water requirements may not be sustainable in the future. Further analysis of climate data is needed to generate a regional climatic characterization that can be used for climate-resilient development projects.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

PubMed

Füssel, Hans-Martin

2008-02-01

Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

Delivering climate science about the Nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela-Acevedo, Elda

2014-01-01

Changes to the Earth’s climate—temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—pose significant challenges to our Nation’s natural resources. Managers of land, water, and living resources require an understanding of the impacts of climate change—which exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat alteration and invasive species—in order to design effective response strategies. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to address environmental challenges resulting from climate and land-use change and to provide natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has established eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and has invested over $93 million (through fiscal year 2013) in cutting-edge climate change research.

Mandatory Climate Change Discussions in Online Classrooms: Promoting Students' Climate Literacy and Understanding of the Nature of Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clary, Renee M.; Wandersee, James H.

2012-01-01

Graduate students entered our online classrooms with robust, but nonscientific, opinions on climate change. To expose students to critical analysis of media and emphasize the nature of science, we required them to access scientific reports and participate in mandatory peer discussions. An introductory survey probed incoming knowledge and opinions,…

Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is predicted to increase climate variability and the frequency and severity of droughts. Predicting how ecosystems will be affected by climate change requires not only reliable forecasts of future climate, but also observationa...

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

2010-12-01

Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0)contribution to CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; ...

2016-10-18

Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of futuremore » climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.« less

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; Hegerl, Gabriele; Knutti, Reto; Matthes, Katja; Santer, Benjamin D.; Stone, Daithi; Tebaldi, Claudia

2016-10-01

Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.

A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2016-09-01

Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

Responses of large mammals to climate change.

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

2014-01-01

Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

Responses of large mammals to climate change

PubMed Central

Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

2014-01-01

Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.

2009-04-01

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

Presentation of uncertainties on web platforms for climate change information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Wrobel, Markus; Reusser, Dominik

2014-05-01

Climate research has a long tradition, however there is still uncertainty about the specific effects of climate change. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, however, the complexity of the science behind needs to be incorporated. In particular, this requires the explicit representation of spatial and temporal uncertainty information to lay people. Within this talk/poster we survey how climate change and climate impact uncertainty information is presented on various climate service web-based platforms. We outline how the specifics of this medium make it challenging to find adequate and readable representations of uncertainties. First, we introduce a multi-step approach in communicating the uncertainty basing on a typology of uncertainty distinguishing between epistemic, natural stochastic, and human reflexive uncertainty. Then, we compare existing concepts and representations for uncertainty communication with current practices on web-based platforms, including own solutions within our web platforms ClimateImpactsOnline and ci:grasp. Finally, we review surveys on how spatial uncertainty visualization techniques are conceived by untrainded users.

Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2013-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to practicalize Climate Change education.

A Scenario-Based Water Conservation Planning Support System (SB-WCPSS)

EPA Science Inventory

The potential of human-induced climate change requires adaptation strategies to minimize human impact, especially in areas sensitivity to climate change. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP), studies are conducted to blunt t...

Bringing New Ph.D.s Together for Interdisciplinary Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phelan, Liam; Jones, Holly; Marlon, Jennifer R.

2013-01-01

Climate change is complex and thus requires interdisciplinary research, and new scholars are rising to that challenge. The Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS (pronounced "discourse"); see http://www.disccrs.org) brings together select groups of recent PhD graduates to encourage interdisciplinary work on climate change. The DISCCRS Symposium VII held just outside of Colorado Springs, Colo., brought together 33 graduates from fields as diverse as climatology, ecology, anthropology, and political science for an intensive week of cross-disciplinary engagement in activities like facilitation and leadership training, collaborative research development, peer networking, communication training, and analysis of working group processes.

Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

PubMed

Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

2014-05-01

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Energy use and climate change improvements of Li/S batteries based on life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvidsson, Rickard; Janssen, Matty; Svanström, Magdalena; Johansson, Patrik; Sandén, Björn A.

2018-04-01

We present a life cycle assessment (LCA) study of a lithium/sulfur (Li/S) cell regarding its energy use (in electricity equivalents, kWhel) and climate change (in kg carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2 eq) with the aim of identifying improvement potentials. Possible improvements are illustrated by departing from a base case of Li/S battery design, electricity from coal power, and heat from natural gas. In the base case, energy use is calculated at 580 kWhel kWh-1 and climate change impact at 230 kg CO2 eq kWh-1 of storage capacity. The main contribution to energy use comes from the LiTFSI electrolyte salt production and the main contribution to climate change is electricity use during the cell production stage. By (i) reducing cell production electricity requirement, (ii) sourcing electricity and heat from renewable sources, (iii) improving the specific energy of the Li/S cell, and (iv) switching to carbon black for the cathode, energy use and climate change impact can be reduced by 54 and 93%, respectively. For climate change, our best-case result of 17 kg CO2 eq kWh-1 is of similar magnitude as the best-case literature results for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The lithium metal requirement of Li/S batteries and LIBs are also of similar magnitude.

Building Public Will for Climate Change Solutions: Which Beliefs Are Most Helpful?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.; Lewandowsky, S.; Cook, J.

2016-12-01

At the COP21 meeting in December 2015, the nations of the world set an ambitious climate change goal - to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees (C), ideally limiting the warming to 1.5 degrees. Achieving this ambitious goal will require building and/or sustaining a high degree of political will in dozens or hundreds of nations, especially highly industrialized nations. One important means of building/sustaining political will is to build public will (i.e., public demand) in support of this goal. Over the past decade, there has been a considerable amount of empirical social science research on public engagement with climate change. In this presentation, we will briefly review the findings of some of this research to suggest that five key beliefs largely form the basis for public will to address climate change. Specifically, people who hold the following beliefs are more likely to support actions to limit climate change, and to personally be taking helpful actions themselves: (1) climate change is real; (2) climate change is human-caused; (3) there is expert consensus about human-caused climate change; (4) climate change is harmful to people; (5) actions can be taken to limit climate change. We will also briefly review what is known about how to successfully communicate these ideas in ways that minimize the societal polarization about climate change (what we call the "acceptance gap") that has developed between liberals and conservatives in several primarily English-speaking nations.

Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World.

PubMed

Brito-Morales, Isaac; García Molinos, Jorge; Schoeman, David S; Burrows, Michael T; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brown, Christopher J; Ferrier, Simon; Harwood, Tom D; Klein, Carissa J; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Watson, James E M; Wenger, Amelia S; Richardson, Anthony J

2018-06-01

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate shapes the protein abundance of dominant soil bacteria.

PubMed

Bastida, Felipe; Crowther, Tom W; Prieto, Iván; Routh, Devin; García, Carlos; Jehmlich, Nico

2018-05-28

Sensitive models of climate change impacts would require a better integration of multi-omics approaches that connect the abundance and activity of microbial populations. Here, we show that climate is a fundamental driver of the protein abundance of Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes and Proteobacteria, supporting the hypothesis that metabolic activity of some dominant phyla may be closely linked to climate. These results may improve our capacity to construct microbial models that better predict the impact of climate change in ecosystem processes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate projections FAQ

Treesearch

A.E. Daniels; J.F. Morrison; L.A. Joyce; N.L. Crookston; S.C. Chen; S.G. McNulty

2012-01-01

Climate scenarios offer one way to identify and examine the land management challenges posed by climate change. Selecting projections, however, requires careful consideration of the natural resources under study, and where and how they are sensitive to climate. Selection also depends on the robustness of different projections for the resources and geographic area of...

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Managing the Health Effects of Temperature in Response to Climate Change: Challenges Ahead

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian G.; Xu, Zhiwei; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Turner, Lyle R.; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background: Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion. Objectives: We examined how public health organizations should implement adaptation strategies and, second, how to improve the evidence base required to make an economic case for policies that will protect the public’s health from heat events and climate change. Discussion: Public health adaptation strategies to cope with heat events and climate change fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health risks. Strategies require a range of actions, including timely public health and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning, early warning systems, and assurance that health care and social systems are ready to act. Some of these actions are costly, and given scarce financial resources the implementation should be based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, research is required not only on the temperature-related health costs, but also on the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The scientific community must ensure that the health co-benefits of climate change policies are recognized, understood, and quantified. Conclusions: The integration of climate change adaptation into current public health practice is needed to ensure the adaptation strategies increase future resilience. The economic evaluation of temperature-related health costs and public health adaptation strategies are particularly important for policy decisions. PMID:23407064

The ecology of emerging infectious diseases in migratory birds: an assessment of the role of climate change and priorities for future research.

PubMed

Fuller, Trevon; Bensch, Staffan; Müller, Inge; Novembre, John; Pérez-Tris, Javier; Ricklefs, Robert E; Smith, Thomas B; Waldenström, Jonas

2012-03-01

Pathogens that are maintained by wild birds occasionally jump to human hosts, causing considerable loss of life and disruption to global commerce. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate change and human movements and commerce may have played a role in recent range expansions of avian pathogens. Since the magnitude of climate change in the coming decades is predicted to exceed climatic changes in the recent past, there is an urgent need to determine the extent to which climate change may drive the spread of disease by avian migrants. In this review, we recommend actions intended to mitigate the impact of emergent pathogens of migratory birds on biodiversity and public health. Increased surveillance that builds upon existing bird banding networks is required to conclusively establish a link between climate and avian pathogens and to prevent pathogens with migratory bird reservoirs from spilling over to humans.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

PubMed

Pecl, Gretta T; Araújo, Miguel B; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A; Scheffers, Brett R; Shaw, Justine D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Sunday, Jennifer M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E

2017-03-31

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Urban, M C; Bocedi, G; Hendry, A P; Mihoub, J-B; Pe'er, G; Singer, A; Bridle, J R; Crozier, L G; De Meester, L; Godsoe, W; Gonzalez, A; Hellmann, J J; Holt, R D; Huth, A; Johst, K; Krug, C B; Leadley, P W; Palmer, S C F; Pantel, J H; Schmitz, A; Zollner, P A; Travis, J M J

2016-09-09

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

Treesearch

Julie A. Vano; John B. Kim; David E. Rupp; Philip W. Mote

2015-01-01

Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the...

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Arctic climate tipping points.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M

2012-02-01

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

PubMed

Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P

2012-08-01

Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

PubMed

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

2017-07-01

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, JeanFrancois; Cazenave, Anny; Ablain, Michael; Larnicol, Gilles; Benveniste, Jerome; Johannessen, Johnny; Timms, Gary; Andersen, Ole; Cipollini, Paolo; Roca, Monica; Rudenko, Sergei; Fernandes, Joana; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Quartly, Graham; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Meyssignac, Benoit; Scharffenberg, Martin

2016-04-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. We will firstly present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, new altimeter standards have been developed and the best one have been recently selected in order to produce a full reprocessing of the dataset (performed in 2016) adapted for climate studies. These new standards will be presented as well as other results regarding the improvement of the sea level estimation in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved.

Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA climate change initiative for MSL closure budget studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, JeanFrancois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of a first version of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. Within phase II, new altimeter standards have been developed and tested in order to reprocess the dataset with the best standards for climate studies. The reprocessed ECV will be released in summer 2016. We will present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. Efforts have also focused on the improvement of the sea level estimation in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved.

Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

2010-12-01

Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non-scientific stakeholders in government, civil society and the private sector, in a context which is different in many European countries. In the IS-ENES effort, a dialogue is set up between the communities in Europe, building on various existing research networks in the area of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Generally, the data needs have not been well articulated. If asked, people working on impacts and adaptation routinely seem to ask for data with the highest possible resolution. However, in reality for many impact and adaptation applications this is not needed, and the large resulting data sets may exceed the analytical capacity of the impact researchers. For impact analysis often various types of climate indices, derived from primary climate model output variables, are required, including indices for extremes and in probabilistic format. Rather than making output from climate modeling generically available, e.g. through a climate service e-portal, context-specific tailoring of information for specific applications is important for effective use. This may require some level of interaction between the users and the data providers, dependent on the specific questions to be addressed.

Agroforestry, climate change, and food security

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...

Climate Change Adaptation Support for Transportation Practitioners: 2013 Volpe Center Innovation Challenge Project.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-09-30

The nature of the U.S. transportation system requires that actions to adapt to climate change impacts occur primarily at the State and local levels. Federal agencies support State, regional, and local agencies and they work hard to provide frameworks...

GIS and crop simulation modelling applications in climate change research

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The challenges that climate change presents humanity require an unprecedented ability to predict the responses of crops to environment and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and crop simulation models are two powerful and highly complementary tools that are increasingly used for such p...

Mental health effects of climate change.

PubMed

Padhy, Susanta Kumar; Sarkar, Sidharth; Panigrahi, Mahima; Paul, Surender

2015-01-01

We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

PubMed

Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

2015-08-25

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds

PubMed Central

Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. PMID:29467262

The engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation.

PubMed

Williams, Victoria

2007-12-15

Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, with unique impacts due to the altitude of emissions. If existing traffic growth rates continue, radical engineering solutions will be required to prevent aviation becoming one of the dominant contributors to climate change. This paper reviews the engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation using aircraft and airspace technologies. These options include not only improvements in fuel efficiency, which would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also measures to reduce non-CO2 impacts including the formation of persistent contrails. Integrated solutions to optimize environmental performance will require changes to airframes, engines, avionics, air traffic control systems and airspace design. While market-based measures, such as offset schemes and emissions trading, receive growing attention, this paper sets out the crucial role of engineering in the challenge to develop a 'green air traffic system'.

Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

2014-12-01

Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

Space sensors for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canavan, G.H.

1994-02-15

Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Harrington, Luke J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1.5°C target to be adopted, but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent poverty growth would be required.

A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C. J.

2015-12-01

A climate change MOOC is a way to reach a global audience of many thousands of students. What was it like to teach climate change to an invisible class over the Internet, and how well did it work? The need to educate many people about climate change seems obvious. Climate change is one of the most important existential issues of our time. Sound science can inform wise policy, and coping successfully with climate change is surely an urgent global challenge that requires scientific input and a scientifically informed public. Today many scientists have opportunities to communicate what science has learned about climate and climate change. Yet being a scientific expert on these subjects does not necessarily mean having the skills to communicate effectively to a broad audience. Like learning to ski or to drive a car skillfully, learning to communicate climate science well takes time and effort. The MOOC format has its own special challenges. Effective communication should always resemble a conversation rather than a monologue, but a conversation can be difficult when the teacher will never see or hear from the great majority of students in the class. In addition, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing widespread confusion about climate change. As a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. One can expect that some of the students taking the MOOC will have been influenced by this sort of erroneous information. Thus, one appealing topic to include in a MOOC on climate change is to give useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation. This talk will describe one climate scientist's first-person participation in teaching a climate change MOOC.

Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Caldeira, Ken; Keith, David W

2014-12-28

Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a tool that might reduce damage from anthropogenic climate change. Analysis often assumes that geoengineering would be used to maintain a constant global mean temperature. Under this scenario, geoengineering would be required either indefinitely (on societal time scales) or until atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sufficiently reduced. Impacts of climate change, however, are related to the rate of change as well as its magnitude. We thus describe an alternative scenario in which solar geoengineering is used only to constrain the rate of change of global mean temperature; this leads to a finite deployment period for any emissions pathway that stabilizes global mean temperature. The length of deployment and amount of geoengineering required depends on the emissions pathway and allowable rate of change, e.g. in our simulations, reducing the maximum approximately 0.3°C per decade rate of change in an RCP 4.5 pathway to 0.1°C per decade would require geoengineering for 160 years; under RCP 6.0, the required time nearly doubles. We demonstrate that feedback control can limit rates of change in a climate model. Finally, we note that a decision to terminate use of solar geoengineering does not automatically imply rapid temperature increases: feedback could be used to limit rates of change in a gradual phase-out. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Easterling, W. E.

2014-12-01

The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

2005-07-01

This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

PubMed Central

Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D H; McMichael, A J; Woodward, A; Cox, J S

2001-01-01

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change. PMID:11516383

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J. (Editor); Rossow, W. (Editor); Fung, I. (Editor)

1993-01-01

A workshop on Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks was held February 3-4, 1992, at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies to discuss the measurements required to interpret long-term global temperature changes, to critique the proposed contributions of a series of small satellites (Climsat), and to identify needed complementary monitoring. The workshop concluded that long-term (several decades) of continuous monitoring of the major climate forcings and feedbacks is essential for understanding long-term climate change.

Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

PubMed

Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

2015-06-01

In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and adaptation will be required to ensure that conservation efforts fully consider the value of geodiversity for supporting biodiversity in the face of a changing climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using Climate Change Information in Large Scale Coastal Planning: Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, D.

2017-12-01

The Louisiana coast has suffered severe land loss in recent decades as human activities have exacerbated the effects of natural stressors leading to catastrophic land loss and increased flood threats to coastal communities. Planning for the future requires a recognition of climate change but also leads to the challenge of understanding how different plausible future conditions influence the outcomes of restoration and protection actions. In coastal Louisiana, the $50 billion Coastal master Plan is legislatively required to be revisited every 5 years in order to ensure that plans for the future continue to be based on the best available, but constantly evolving, scientific information. For the 2017 iteration of the Coastal Master Plan, identification of the environmental scenarios to be explored began in 2014 and included both professional judgment regarding the most important drivers of future change, as well as climate change information derived during the National Climate Assessment. The number of scenarios to be explored was limited by both available resources and the need to make the findings accessible to stakeholders and policy makers. Plausible ranges were identified for key drivers of coastal landscape change, including climatic factors such as eustatic sea-level, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore how the coastal landscape changed in response to combinations of values, allowed agency personnel to select three scenarios against which to test the effectiveness of different restoration and protection actions. The 2017 Coastal Master Plan was then developed by exploring the response of different actions to the scenarios, and how project costs also varied depending on future conditions. Such consideration of climate change in coastal planning at the state scale is facilitated by the availability of scientifically valid information on climate change, that has already been reviewed and sourced.

Perceptions and Misconceptions Regarding Climate Change: Politics versus Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, Elia O.

Climate change has been increasingly becoming a commonly debated topic among the public (Lambert & Bleicher, 2013). This is especially true with scientists and educators (Cooney, 2010). Terminology, politics, and misconceptions can bias perceptions. Scientists also tend to disagree over the cause of climate change and the data resulting from different studies (Idso, Carter, & Singer, 2016). The pilot study was conducted to examine perceptions of preservice teachers regarding climate change. There were forty participants, comprised of twenty Hispanic, nineteen Anglo American, and one African American, enrolled in a required course for future science educators in a medium-sized south Texas university. The pilot study included pre- and post-tests distributed to all of the participants and one on one interviews with three randomly selected pre-service teachers. The post-test results showed a significant difference in statements about the belief that climate change is real, about there being enough scientific evidence to prove the climate is changing, and the belief we are experiencing an extinction event due to climate change. While one lesson on climate change may not prove to be enough to change all of the participants' perceptions, there were some pre-service teachers who did begin to think differently about the impact of human activities and became more aware of climate change issues. The findings from this research show how beneficial a lesson on climate change can be to the future careers of science educators and in turn contribute considerably to the education of future students.

Managing protected areas under climate change: challenges and priorities.

PubMed

Rannow, Sven; Macgregor, Nicholas A; Albrecht, Juliane; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Förster, Michael; Heiland, Stefan; Janauer, Georg; Morecroft, Mike D; Neubert, Marco; Sarbu, Anca; Sienkiewicz, Jadwiga

2014-10-01

The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the "traditional" conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.

A call to insect scientists: Challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hellmann, Jessica J.; Grundel, Ralph; Hoving, Chris; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2016-01-01

As climate change moves insect systems into uncharted territory, more knowledge about insect dynamics and the factors that drive them could enable us to better manage and conserve insect communities. Climate change may also require us revisit insect management goals and strategies and lead to a new kind of scientific engagement in management decision-making. Here we make five key points about the role of insect science in aiding and crafting management decisions, and we illustrate those points with the monarch butterfly and the Karner blue butterfly, two species undergoing considerable change and facing new management dilemmas. Insect biology has a strong history of engagement in applied problems, and as the impacts of climate change increase, a reimagined ethic of entomology in service of broader society may emerge. We hope to motivate insect biologists to contribute time and effort toward solving the challenges of climate change.

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Adapting to climate change

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

Human health impacts in a changing South African climate.

PubMed

Wright, C Y; Garland, R M; Norval, M; Vogel, C

2014-08-01

Climate change is projected to lead to warmer temperatures, especially in southern Africa, where the warming is predicted to be 2°C higher than the global increase. Given the high burden of disease already associated with environmental factors in this region, this temperature increase may lead to grave challenges for human health and quality of life. HIV/AIDS, poverty, food and water insecurity together with inequality and unemployment will further complicate the manner in which we will need to address the challenges of a changing climate. The health impacts are direct, such as increased temperatures leading to heat exhaustion, and indirect, such as likely increases in infectious diseases from contaminated water and changes in the distribution and/or magnitude of vector-borne diseases. The most effective measures for adapting to climate change to ensure healthy populations are to implement basic public health systems and services. These range from a continuous supply of clean water to adequate primary healthcare services. Support for required interventions is required not only from government, but also from healthcare professionals and communities. The need for disease surveillance, data capturing and more focused research is paramount.

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E.

2017-01-01

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E

2017-08-16

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors.

Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity.

PubMed

Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R; Selfa, Theresa

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R.; Selfa, Theresa

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

Toward inventory-based estimates of soil organic carbon in forests of the United States

Treesearch

G.M. Domke; C.H. Perry; B.F. Walters; L.E. Nave; C.W. Woodall; C.W. Swanston

2017-01-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest terrestrial carbon (C) sink on Earth; this pool plays a critical role in ecosystem processes and climate change. Given the cost and time required to measure SOC, and particularly changes in SOC, many signatory nations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change report estimates of SOC stocks and stock changes...

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

PubMed

Hamann, Andreas; Roberts, David R; Barber, Quinn E; Carroll, Carlos; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-02-01

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities). © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demonstrating the Error Budget for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Through Solar Irradiance Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thome, Kurtis; McCorkel, Joel; McAndrew, Brendan

2016-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as a method to determine the accuracy of climate change. A CLARREO objective is to improve the accuracy of SI-traceable, absolute calibration at infrared and reflected solar wavelengths to reach on-orbit accuracies required to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps and observe climate change at the limit of natural variability. Such an effort will also demonstrate National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) approaches for use in future spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the results of laboratory and field measurements with the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. SOLARIS allows testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. Results of laboratory calibration measurements are provided to demonstrate key assumptions about instrument behavior that are needed to achieve CLARREO's climate measurement requirements. Absolute radiometric response is determined using laser-based calibration sources and applied to direct solar views for comparison with accepted solar irradiance models to demonstrate accuracy values giving confidence in the error budget for the CLARREO reflectance retrieval.

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

PubMed

Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2015-11-01

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do we know how to reconcile preservation of landscapes with adaptation of agriculture to climate change? A case-study in a hilly area in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menenti, Massimo; Alfieri, Silvia; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Monaco, Eugenia; Riccardi, Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Limited impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are unlikely to induce any significant changes in current landscapes. Larger impacts, unacceptable on economic or social ground, are likely to trigger interventions towards adaptation of agricultural production systems by reducing or removing vulnerabilities to climate variability and change. Such interventions may require a transition to a different production system, i.e. complete substitution of current crops, or displacement of current crops at their current location towards other locations, e.g. at higher elevations within the landscape. We have assessed the impacts of climate change and evaluated options for adaptation of a valley in Southern Italy, dominated by vine and olive orchards with a significant presence of wheat. We have first estimated the climatic requirements of several varieties for each dominant species. Next, to identify options for adaptation we have evaluated the compatibility of such requirements with indicators of a reference (current) climate and of future climate. This climate - compatibility assessment was done for each soil unit within the valley, leading to maps of locations where each crop is expected to be compatible with climate. This leads to identify both potential crop substitutions within the entire valley and crop displacements from one location to another within the valley. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. We evaluated the adaptive capacity of the "Valle Telesina" (Campania Region, Southern Italy). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate for each soil unit. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of local experiments and of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. Time series of MODIS TIR data were used to downscale gridded climate data on air temperature for both the reference and the future climate. The results indicate that no complete crop substitution will be required within this time frame, i.e. the Valle Telesina will preserve its typical landscape features of a vine - olive orchards dominated production system, typical of many regions in Mediterranean Europe. On the other hand very significant crop displacements will be necessary to grow each variety under optimal hydrothermal conditions, from the point of view of both quantity and quality of yield. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Climate Observations from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Stephen

2016-07-01

The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Climate warming and land-use changes drive broad-scale floristic changes in Southern Sweden.

PubMed

Tyler, Torbjörn; Herbertsson, Lina; Olsson, Pål Axel; Fröberg, Lars; Olsson, Kjell-Arne; Svensson, Åke; Olsson, Ola

2018-06-01

Land-use changes, pollution and climate warming during the 20th century have caused changes in biodiversity across the world. However, in many cases, the environmental drivers are poorly understood. To identify and rank the drivers currently causing broad-scale floristic changes in N Europe, we analysed data from two vascular plant surveys of 200 randomly selected 2.5 × 2.5 km grid-squares in Scania, southernmost Sweden, conducted 1989-2006 and 2008-2015, respectively, and related the change in frequency (performance) of the species to a wide range of species-specific plant traits. We chose traits representing all plausible drivers of recent floristic changes: climatic change (northern distribution limit, flowering time), land-use change (light requirement, response to grazing/mowing, response to soil disturbance), drainage (water requirement), acidification (pH optimum), nitrogen deposition and eutrophication (N requirement, N fixation ability, carnivory, parasitism, mycorrhizal associations), pollinator decline (mode of reproduction) and changes in CO 2 levels (photosynthetic pathway). Our results suggest that climate warming and changes in land-use were the main drivers of changes in the flora during the last decades. Climate warming appeared as the most influential driver, with northern distribution limit explaining 30%-60% of the variance in the GLMM models. However, the relative importance of the drivers differed among habitat types, with grassland species being affected the most by cessation of grazing/mowing and species of ruderal habitats by on-going concentration of both agriculture and human population to the most productive soils. For wetland species, only pH optimum was significantly related to species performance, possibly an effect of the increasing humification of acidic water bodies. An observed relative decline of mycorrhizal species may possibly be explained by decreasing nitrogen deposition resulting in less competition for phosphorus. We found no effect of shortage or decline of pollinating lepidopterans and bees. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are coupled in IAMs , and the need for a lexicon that is agreed upon by the IAM community.

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter;

The impact of climate change on air conditioning requirements in Andalusia at a detailed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limones-Rodríguez, Natalia; Marzo-Artigas, Javier; Pita-López, María Fernanda; Díaz-Cuevas, María Pilar

2017-11-01

This work calculates the current heating and cooling degree days and also examines heating and cooling degree days in relation to three subdivisions of the twenty-first century. On the basis of these data, we were able to calculate the heating and cooling degree months and degree years. After examining both sets of data, we studied the total needs of air conditioning—also referred to in the current paper as climatization needs——for Andalusia as a whole. The results indicate an increase in air conditioning needs, and we also noted that the areas adversely affected by this increase were more numerous than those which benefited, at the end of the century. It should be noted that climate change will also necessitate the gradual replacement of heating with cooling, which will require profound changes in the energy, land planning, and housing policies of the region. The true magnitude of the challenge becomes clear when the climatization degree days are related to the population which they affect; the majority of the population is located in areas where the climatization needs will increase over the course of the century. Undoubtedly, this issue is a major protagonist in the climate change adaptation process in Andalusia.

Designing climate-smart conservation: guidance and case studies.

PubMed

Hansen, Lara; Hoffman, Jennifer; Drews, Carlos; Mielbrecht, Eric

2010-02-01

To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible.

Toward a U.S. National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2010-01-01

Third USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5-9 October 2009; Directional climate change will have profound and lasting effects throughout society that are best understood through fundamental physical and biological processes. One such process is phenology: how the timing of recurring biological events is affected by biotic and abiotic forces. Phenology is an early and integrative indicator of climate change readily understood by nonspecialists. Phenology affects the planting, maturation, and harvesting of food and fiber; pollination; timing and magnitude of allergies and disease; recreation and tourism; water quantity and quality; and ecosystem function and resilience. Thus, phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal time scales. Changes in phenologies have already manifested myriad effects of directional climate change. As these changes continue, it is critical to establish a comprehensive suite of benchmarks that can be tracked and mapped at local to continental scales with observations and climate models.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Is it feasible to estimate radiosonde biases from interlaced measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremser, Stefanie; Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Rust, Henning W.; Bodeker, Greg E.

2018-05-01

Upper-air measurements of essential climate variables (ECVs), such as temperature, are crucial for climate monitoring and climate change detection. Because of the internal variability of the climate system, many decades of measurements are typically required to robustly detect any trend in the climate data record. It is imperative for the records to be temporally homogeneous over many decades to confidently estimate any trend. Historically, records of upper-air measurements were primarily made for short-term weather forecasts and as such are seldom suitable for studying long-term climate change as they lack the required continuity and homogeneity. Recognizing this, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) has been established to provide reference-quality measurements of climate variables, such as temperature, pressure, and humidity, together with well-characterized and traceable estimates of the measurement uncertainty. To ensure that GRUAN data products are suitable to detect climate change, a scientifically robust instrument replacement strategy must always be adopted whenever there is a change in instrumentation. By fully characterizing any systematic differences between the old and new measurement system a temporally homogeneous data series can be created. One strategy is to operate both the old and new instruments in tandem for some overlap period to characterize any inter-instrument biases. However, this strategy can be prohibitively expensive at measurement sites operated by national weather services or research institutes. An alternative strategy that has been proposed is to alternate between the old and new instruments, so-called interlacing, and then statistically derive the systematic biases between the two instruments. Here we investigate the feasibility of such an approach specifically for radiosondes, i.e. flying the old and new instruments on alternating days. Synthetic data sets are used to explore the applicability of this statistical approach to radiosonde change management.

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2010-01-01

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

The Nested Regional Climate Model: An Approach Toward Prediction Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, J. W.; Holland, G. J.; Large, W. G.

2008-12-01

The reality of global climate change has become accepted and society is rapidly moving to questions of consequences on space and time scales that are relevant to proper planning and development of adaptation strategies. There are a number of urgent challenges for the scientific community related to improved and more detailed predictions of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Two important examples are potential impacts of climate change on North Atlantic hurricane activity and on water resources over the intermountain West. The latter is dominated by complex topography, so that accurate simulations of regional climate variability and change require much finer spatial resolution than is provided with state-of-the-art climate models. Climate models also do not explicitly resolve tropical cyclones, even though these storms have dramatic societal impacts and play an important role in regulating climate. Moreover, the debate over the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones has at times been acrimonious, and the lack of hard evidence has left open opportunities for misinterpretation and justification of pre-existing beliefs. These and similar topics are being assessed at NCAR, in partnership with university colleagues, through the development of a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). This is an ambitious effort to combine a state of the science mesoscale weather model (WRF), a high resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), and a climate model (CCSM) to better simulate the complex, multi-scale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions that are limiting our ability to predict likely future changes in regional weather statistics and climate. The NRCM effort is attracting a large base of earth system scientists together with societal groups as diverse as the Western Governor's Association and the offshore oil industry. All of these groups require climate data on scales of a few kilometers (or less), so that the NRCM program is producing unique data sets of climate change scenarios of immense interest. In addition, all simulations are archived in a form that will be readily accessible to other researchers, thus enabling a wider group to investigate these important issues.

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

Evidence-based planning for forest adaptation

Treesearch

Lee Hannah; Thomas E. Lovejoy

2014-01-01

Forest conservation under climate change requires conserving species both in their present ranges and where they may exist in the future as climate changes. Several debates in the literature are pioneering this relatively novel ground. For instance, conservation planning using species distribution models is advocated because it uses information on both exposure to...

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Treesearch

Helen R. Sofaer; Catherine S. Jarnevich; Curtis H. Flather

2018-01-01

Conservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated...

FORECASTING REGIONAL TO GLOBAL PLANT MIGRATION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

The rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the migration rates of most plant species. The replacement of dominant species by locally rare species may require decades, and extinctions may occur when plant species cannot migrate fast enough to escape the consequences of...

TRAIT-BASED FRAMEWORK TO PREDICTING RELATIVE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NEAR-COASTAL SPECIES AND HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, near-coastal species are “flying too close” to the sun, and are being impacted by climate-induced changes in air and ocean temperature, precipitation, salinity, ocean pH, sea level rise, and nonindigenous species. Sound management requires knowledge of wh...

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Country Contributions to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.

2016-12-01

An assignment called "Country Contributions to Climate Change" is used in an introductory Global Climate Change course and answers the question, "Who is responsible for climate change?" This assignment is used about a third of the way into the course, which fulfills a science requirement, but also a Global Diversity requirement within the university. The assignment involves taking a trip to the computer lab to learn how to create graphs in Excel. Two graphs are created, the Keeling Curve, and a graph on total carbon emissions by country since 1900. Students are given data for a few key countries, then are sent to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) website to find data on their assigned country. Students create a graph to compare emissions over time from each of these countries. Using this data and the data from the CDIAC, students are asked to draw conclusions about which country is the largest emitter, then on a per capita basis, which people are the largest emitters. Later in the semester they will calculate their own carbon footprint and compare to these numbers. Finally, students are asked to add up emissions by country since 1900 to find out how the countries compare in cumulative emissions, and we learn why this number is relevant. Students also learn the difference between carbon emissions and concentrations, tying together some lessons on the carbon cycle. Students discover the complex role of several countries in climate change, showing them how complicated a climate change solution policy can be.

Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mustafa; Abedi-Koupai, Jahangir; Heidarpour, Manouchehr

2018-04-15

In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m 3 /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Satellite Instrument Calibration for Measuring Global Climate Change. Report of a Workshop at the University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center, College Park, MD. , November 12-14, 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ohring, G.; Wielicki, B.; Spencer, R.; Emery, B.; Datla, R.

2004-01-01

Measuring the small changes associated with long-term global climate change from space is a daunting task. To address these problems and recommend directions for improvements in satellite instrument calibration some 75 scientists, including researchers who develop and analyze long-term data sets from satellites, experts in the field of satellite instrument calibration, and physicists working on state of the art calibration sources and standards met November 12 - 14, 2002 and discussed the issues. The workshop defined the absolute accuracies and long-term stabilities of global climate data sets that are needed to detect expected trends, translated these data set accuracies and stabilities to required satellite instrument accuracies and stabilities, and evaluated the ability of current observing systems to meet these requirements. The workshop's recommendations include a set of basic axioms or overarching principles that must guide high quality climate observations in general, and a roadmap for improving satellite instrument characterization, calibration, inter-calibration, and associated activities to meet the challenge of measuring global climate change. It is also recommended that a follow-up workshop be conducted to discuss implementation of the roadmap developed at this workshop.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.

PubMed

Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2013-11-19

Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects.

Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.

PubMed

Wiley, Lindsay F

2010-01-01

The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well. © 2010 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fordham, D. A.; Akçakaya, H. R.; Brook, B. W.; Rodríguez, A.; Alves, P. C.; Civantos, E.; Triviño, M.; Watts, M. J.; Araújo, M. B.

2013-10-01

The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction. Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species, but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species' habitat shifts. Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source-sink dynamics to directly investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lynx. Our approach is unique in that it explicitly models dynamic bi-trophic species interactions in a climate change setting. We show that anticipated climate change will rapidly and severely decrease lynx abundance and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years, even with strong global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast, we also show that a carefully planned reintroduction programme, accounting for the effects of climate change, prey abundance and habitat connectivity, could avert extinction of the lynx this century. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, why considering prey availability, climate change and their interaction in models is important when designing policies to prevent future biodiversity loss.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Making Scientific Data Available to Adaptation Practitioners - the Wallace Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, J. T.; Warren, R. F.; Vanderwal, J.; Shoo, L.; Ramirez, J.; Jarvis, A.; Goswami, S.

2010-12-01

Conservation strategies have largely been developed under an assumption of a stationary climate. These strategies may fail with changing climates, especially when acting with existing anthropogenic pressures. The Wallace Initiative is a global effort to rapidly assess the potential impacts of climate change on nearly 50,000 plant and animal species. Climate change data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) is then used to look at different future climate change scenarios. Governments and conservation organizations have dedicated extensive resources to protect biodiversity. These investments are at risk and efforts will need to take into account a dynamic climate. We used the species models to calculate projected changes in percent species richness - looking at areas likely to be refugia and areas likely to undergo the greatest loss. This information can provide guidance to natural resource managers on how they may need to adapt to climate change to avoid biodiversity loss. Managers will also need to take into account issues with spatial scale. While these models might project a species being “lost” in a 0.5° x 0.5° grid, thermal buffering (e.g., taking into account elevation, slope, aspect, distance to stream and canopy cover) provides guidance on areas that may allow a species to persist at more local scales (1-5 km). This approach may help alleviate the issues of downscaling climate and climate change data in data-poor areas. Understanding the vulnerability of biodiversity requires an understanding of the climate and projected climate changes. Thus, developing long term adaptation options requires robust vulnerability analyses at appropriate scales. These assessments are often hindered by data quality and availability, capacity and an understanding of appropriate scales, methods and tools. The program ClimaScope has been designed to help provide better access to climate data for modelers and practitioners, data that has also been linked to impacts. ClimaScope is a data visualization engine providing easy access to data without running the models. For a selected GCM pattern and emissions scenario, ClimaScope provides maps, charts and data on the projected climate changes with some indication of uncertainty range. Variables available include terrestrial temperature change (maximum, minimum and average), total precipitation, wet-day frequency, and sea-surface temperature. This data can be presented both as observed climate and/or projected climate for a user defined time period. Some of these data have been used in the Wallace Initiative and data from the Wallace Initiative are also available to users. So, practitioners can select family, genus, species, dispersal model, climate model, emission model, and time slice and get maps showing projected range of the species over time. These tools have been designed to help make scientific data more readily available to adaptation practitioners around the world, especially in developing countries.

Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

Treesearch

Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael Oaraci

2002-01-01

Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Capalbo, Susan M.; Houston, Laurie L.; Glick, Patty

2013-01-01

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

Climate change: could it help develop 'adaptive expertise'?

PubMed

Bell, Erica; Horton, Graeme; Blashki, Grant; Seidel, Bastian M

2012-05-01

Preparing health practitioners to respond to the rising burden of disease from climate change is emerging as a priority in health workforce policy and planning. However, this issue is hardly represented in the medical education research. The rapidly evolving wide range of direct and indirect consequences of climate change will require health professionals to have not only broad content knowledge but also flexibility and responsiveness to diverse regional conditions as part of complex health problem-solving and adaptation. It is known that adaptive experts may not necessarily be quick at solving familiar problems, but they do creatively seek to better solve novel problems. This may be the result of an acquired approach to practice or a pathway that can be fostered by learning environments. It is also known that building adaptive expertise in medical education involves putting students on a learning pathway that requires them to have, first, the motivation to innovatively problem-solve and, second, exposure to diverse content material, meaningfully presented. Including curriculum content on the health effects of climate change could help meet these two conditions for some students at least. A working definition and illustrative competencies for adaptive expertise for climate change, as well as examples of teaching and assessment approaches extrapolated from rural curricula, are provided.

Who Is Learning About Climate Change in American Schools? An Analysis of Climate Change in Curriculum Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, B. W.; Francis, T. K.

2014-12-01

This work attempts to answer the question "how much, if any, climate change, exists in middle and high school curricula in the United States?" A necessary first step towards this answer involves an examination of Global Climate Change (GCC) coverage in the requisite standards documents. Until recently, each state had its own science framework, with four states (at the time of writing) having already adopted the new Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, Inc, 2013). This work reports on an analysis of the extent to which GCC exists within the content frameworks of each state, including the NGSS. The analysis began with a word search for such content as "climate change", "greenhouse effect", and "global warming". We then searched through the remainder of the documents in question to understand the nuance of each framework. Each framework was then scored on a scale form zero (no mention of climate change) to four (climate change is explicit, an anthropogenic potential cause is emphasized, and GCC appears within at least one standard of its own). Eighteen states scored a zero, while only five states scored a four. This is particularly troubling, in light of recent statements of scientific consensus (AAAS, 2006; 2009; AGU, 2013; IPCC, 2007). While the NGSS scored well, it is unclear what this means in terms of actual students encountering the subject of climate change in actual classroom. Attention is given to some still-problematic aspects of GCC content are addressed, including its focus largely within courses not required for graduation, as well as the murky details of the yet-to-be determined processes by which individual states will choose to test, or not to test, the subject matter. The authors conclude that as of 2013, there is little evidence that students in most states are required to take courses which include significant aspects of GCC in their curricula.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species.

PubMed

Reist, James D; Wrona, Frederick J; Prowse, Terry D; Dempson, J Brian; Power, Michael; Köck, Günter; Carmichael, Theresa J; Sawatzky, Chantelle D; Lehtonen, Hannu; Tallman, Ross F

2006-11-01

Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

PubMed Central

Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Özkan, Şeyda

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire basedmore » exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. - Highlights: • Experts identified challenges for health and pathogen modelling under climate change. • Eighteen key challenges and associated research priorities were identified. • Increasing capacity will require improved organisation and sharing knowledge. • Better communication across the diverse topics and approaches in this field is needed.« less

Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife

Treesearch

Chad B. Wilsey; Joshua J. Lawler; Edwin P. Maurer; Donald McKenzie; Patricia A. Townsend; Richard Gwozdz; James A. Freund; Keala Hagmann; Karen M. Hutten

2013-01-01

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we...

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, S.

2009-12-01

Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

Climate Change Risk Management Consulting: The opportunity for an independent business practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciccozzi, R.

2009-04-01

The Paper outlines the main questions to be addressed with reference to the actual demand of climate change risk management consulting, in the financial services. Moreover, the Project shall also try to investigate if the Catastrophe Modelling Industry can start and manage a business practice specialised on climate change risk exposures. In this context, the Paper aims at testing the possibility to build a sound business case, based upon typical MBA course analysis tools, such as PEST(LE), SWOT, etc. Specific references to the tools to be used and to other contribution from academic literature and general documentation are also discussed in the body of the Paper and listed at the end. The analysis shall also focus on the core competencies required for an independent climate change risk management consulting business practice, with the purpose to outline a valid definition of how to achieve competitive advantage in climate change risk management consulting.

Climate adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinzig, Ann P.

2015-03-01

This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

2017-06-01

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Marinucci, Gino D.; Luber, George; Uejio, Christopher K.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to have several adverse health impacts. Managing these risks to public health requires an iterative approach. As with many risk management strategies related to climate change, using modeling to project impacts, engaging a wide range of stakeholders, and regularly updating models and risk management plans with new information—hallmarks of adaptive management—are considered central tenets of effective public health adaptation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a framework, entitled Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, to facilitate this process for public health agencies. Its five steps are laid out here. Following the steps laid out in BRACE will enable an agency to use the best available science to project likely climate change health impacts in a given jurisdiction and prioritize interventions. Adopting BRACE will also reinforce public health’s established commitment to evidence-based practice and institutional learning, both of which will be central to successfully engaging the significant new challenges that climate change presents. PMID:24991665

Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wishart, D. N.

2015-12-01

Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa; Campany, Courtney E

2010-01-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneathmore » dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting how climate change will alter ecosystem functioning.« less

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

PubMed

Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-03-04

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Determinants of climate change awareness level in upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya.

PubMed

Ajuang, Chadwick O; Abuom, Paul O; Bosire, Esna K; Dida, Gabriel O; Anyona, Douglas N

2016-01-01

Improving the understanding of climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in climate change research. While the African continent is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change, research on climate knowledge and awareness is lacking. Kenya is already grappling with the impacts of climate change, which are projected to increase in a non-linear and non-predictable manner. This study sought to determine climate change awareness levels among households residing in Upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya using common climate change markers viz heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and temperature. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in which 384 household heads were selected as respondents from 11 sub-locations; all located within Upper Nyakach Division. A questionnaire was used to collect data. Most (90.9 %) respondents had observed changes in the overall climate. Awareness level of climate change varied significantly across the 11 sub-locations. To further gain insight unto which variables were the most significant determinant of climate change awareness in upper Nyakach division, Kisumu county, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson error distribution was built. The model indicated that sex of the household head, education level and age significantly influenced respondents' awareness to climate change markers. Most (87 %) households reported rising temperatures over the past 20 years. Over half (55.2 %) the respondents had observed declining rains, with significant differences being observed across age groups. Up to 75 % of the respondents reported increased droughts frequency over the last 20 years, with significant differences observed across gender. Most (86.7 %) respondents reported having observed changes in water sources with significant differences reported across age groups. The respondents reported an increased prevalence of malaria with significant differences being observed among the education levels and households' main livelihoods. The general population of the Upper Nyakach Divison is aware of changing global climate. However, more effort is required in mitigating climate change as per the local settings. Awareness campaign aimed at increasing knowledge of climate change markers among community members is recommended.

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.

PubMed

Robillard, Cassandra M; Coristine, Laura E; Soares, Rosana N; Kerr, Jeremy T

2015-12-01

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groves, Craig R.; Game, Edward T.; Anderson, Mark G.; Cross, Molly; Enquist, Carolyn; Ferdana, Zach; Girvetz, Evan; Gondor, Anne; Hall, Kimberly R.; Higgins, Jonathan; Marshall, Rob; Popper, Ken; Schill, Steve; Shafer, Sarah L.

2012-01-01

The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bolt, Bregje; van Nes, Egbert H.; Bathiany, Sebastian; Vollebregt, Marlies E.; Scheffer, Marten

2018-06-01

Climate change research often focuses on trends in the mean and variance. However, analyses of palaeoclimatic and contemporary dynamics reveal that climate memory — as measured for instance by temporal autocorrelation — may also change substantially over time. Here, we show that elevated temporal autocorrelation in climatic variables should be expected to increase the chance of critical transitions in climate-sensitive systems with tipping points. We demonstrate that this prediction is consistent with evidence from forests, coral reefs, poverty traps, violent conflict and ice sheet instability. In each example, the duration of anomalous dry or warm events elevates chances of invoking a critical transition. Understanding the effects of climate variability thus requires research not only on variance, but also on climate memory.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

Modeling impacts of CO2, ozone, and climate change on tree growth

Treesearch

George E. Host; Gary W. Theseira; J. G. Isebrands

1996-01-01

Understanding the influence of ozone, CO2, and changing climatic regimes on basic plant physiological processes is essential for predicting the response of forest ecosystems. To understand the relationships among these interacting factors, in the face of genetic and other environmental variability, requires a means of synthesis. Physiological...

Atmospheric Science: Solving Challenges of Climate Change

ScienceCinema

Geffen, Charlette

2018-02-07

PNNL’s atmospheric science research provides data required to make decisions about challenges presented by climate change: Where to site power plants, how to manage water resources, how to prepare for severe weather events and more. Our expertise in fundamental observations and modeling is recognized among the national labs and the world.

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

Crop improvement in the era of climate change: an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Two forces are converging that will jointly challenge researchers to design programs that ensure our crop production systems meet the world’s food demand. Climate change will potentially reduce productivity while a global population increase will require more food. If productivity is not increased...

Creating Climate Change Awareness in South African Schools through Practical Chemistry Demonstrations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sunassee, Suthananda N.; Young, Ryan M.; Sewry, Joyce D.; Harrison, Timothy G.; Shallcross, Dudley E.

2012-01-01

In accordance with the requirements for the National Curriculum Statement for both Life sciences and Physical sciences and the importance of community engagement in Higher Education in South Africa, this paper described the use of the lecture-demonstration "A Pollutant's Tale" to create climate change awareness amongst school learners.…

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Trait-based framework to predict relative vulnerability of near-coastal species and habitats to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, near-coastal species are “flying too close” to the sun, and are being impacted by climate-induced changes in air and ocean temperature, precipitation, salinity, ocean pH, and sea level rise. Sound management requires knowledge of what species and habitats...

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. The framework was successfully tested in two use scenarios of the GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG aiming to predict species distribution changes due to Climate Change factors, with the scientific patronage of the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop .

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

PubMed Central

White, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Jones, G. V.; Pal, J. S.; Giorgi, F.

2006-01-01

Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies. PMID:16840557

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, James S.

1992-01-01

Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

Life stage, not climate change, explains observed tree range shifts.

PubMed

Máliš, František; Kopecký, Martin; Petřík, Petr; Vladovič, Jozef; Merganič, Ján; Vida, Tomáš

2016-05-01

Ongoing climate change is expected to shift tree species distribution and therefore affect forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. To assess and project tree distributional shifts, researchers may compare the distribution of juvenile and adult trees under the assumption that differences between tree life stages reflect distributional shifts triggered by climate change. However, the distribution of tree life stages could differ within the lifespan of trees, therefore, we hypothesize that currently observed distributional differences could represent shifts over ontogeny as opposed to climatically driven changes. Here, we test this hypothesis with data from 1435 plots resurveyed after more than three decades across the Western Carpathians. We compared seedling, sapling and adult distribution of 12 tree species along elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients. We analyzed (i) temporal shifts between the surveys and (ii) distributional differences between tree life stages within both surveys. Despite climate warming, tree species distribution of any life stage did not shift directionally upward along elevation between the surveys. Temporal elevational shifts were species specific and an order of magnitude lower than differences among tree life stages within the surveys. Our results show that the observed range shifts among tree life stages are more consistent with ontogenetic differences in the species' environmental requirements than with responses to recent climate change. The distribution of seedlings substantially differed from saplings and adults, while the distribution of saplings did not differ from adults, indicating a critical transition between seedling and sapling tree life stages. Future research has to take ontogenetic differences among life stages into account as we found that distributional differences recently observed worldwide may not reflect climate change but rather the different environmental requirements of tree life stages. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Life-stage, not climate change, explains observed tree range shifts

PubMed Central

Máliš, František; Kopecký, Martin; Petřík, Petr; Vladovič, Jozef; Merganič, Ján; Vida, Tomáš

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change is expected to shift tree species distribution and therefore affect forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. To assess and project tree distributional shifts, researchers may compare the distribution of juvenile and adult trees under the assumption that differences between tree life-stages reflect distributional shifts triggered by climate change. However, the distribution of tree life-stages could differ within the lifespan of trees, therefore we hypothesize that currently observed distributional differences could represent shifts over ontogeny as opposed to climatically driven changes. Here we test this hypothesis with data from 1435 plots resurveyed after more than three decades across the Western Carpathians. We compared seedling, sapling and adult distribution of 12 tree species along elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients. We analyzed i) temporal shifts between the surveys and ii) distributional differences between tree life-stages within both surveys. Despite climate warming, tree species distribution of any life-stage did not shift directionally upward along elevation between the surveys. Temporal elevational shifts were species-specific and an order of magnitude lower than differences among tree life-stages within the surveys. Our results show that the observed range shifts among tree life-stages are more consistent with ontogenetic differences in the species’ environmental requirements than with responses to recent climate change. The distribution of seedlings substantially differed from saplings and adults, while the distribution of saplings did not differ from adults, indicating a critical transition between seedling and sapling tree life-stages. Future research has to take ontogenetic differences among life-stages into account as we found that distributional differences recently observed worldwide may not reflect climate change but rather the different environmental requirements of tree life-stages. PMID:26725258

Biophysical system models advance agricultural research and technology: Some examples and further research needs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Environmental concerns of the general public, droughts, and climate change effects require continual adaptation and optimization of agricultural systems through changes in cropping and management. Advancement of science and technology to achieve these changes requires cutting-edge field research, us...

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

2017-12-01

Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for sustained assessments that integrate and reflect the social science understanding of the complex relationships between social and natural worlds in a changing climate, and factors that impact effective mitigation and adaptation strategies that address risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

Climate Risk assessment and management in rainfed agriculture areas in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Saeb

2017-04-01

Agricultural production is closely tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Figures and data from official resources and previous studies demonstrated that most of agricultural areas in Jordan were rainfed which made agriculture in the country more susceptible to climate change. The percentage of harvested to cultivated areas in those areas over the past ten years ranged from 45-55%, indicating a high risk associated with rainfed agriculture in Jordan. The anticipated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would adversely affect crops and water availability, critically influencing the patterns of future agricultural production, threatens livelihoods and keeps vulnerable people insecure. The anticipated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would result in 15-20% yield reduction for major field crops and vegetable crops by 2050 and 2070. This study was conducted to help in formulating action plans to adapt to climate change by assessing the risk from climate change on rainfed agriculture. The scenarios of climate change were used to assess the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture. The overall risk level was based on possible land use shifts and crop yield under the most probable climate change scenarios. Accordingly, adaptive measures were proposed to reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Jordan. The adaptation measures included the improvement of soil water storage to maximize plant water availability, the management of crop residue and tillage to conserve soil and water, the selection of drought-tolerant crop varieties, the expansion of water harvesting schemes through encouraging the farmers to adopt and apply the in-situ water harvesting systems (micro-catchment). Finally, the study emphasized the need for capacity building and awareness creation at the levels of farmers and extension staff. This would require the formulation of plans and strategies to support services that would promote adoption and adaptation. The empowerment of farmer service centers to provide technical advice and information on viable adaptation options would be needed. This also would require the development of micro-credit/revolving grants to farmers to apply the developed adaptation systems.

Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

PubMed

Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

2018-05-01

Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.

PubMed

Howard, Christine; Stephens, Philip A; Tobias, Joseph A; Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2018-02-28

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a fixed magnitude are presented. Depending on the indicator selected, the sample variance and trend magnitude very different detection time estimates are obtained and in most cases not within the time required for anticipatory adaptation in the water resources sector. Additionally, the minimum changes in low flow indicators required to be detectable are large and changes are unlikely to be statistically detectable for many years. This means that water management and planning for anticipated future climatic changes will be required to take place without these changes being formally statistically detectable.Waiting for these trends to become formally detectable with the traditional statistical methods might not be an option for water resources management. Within the monitoring network, a considerable difference is apparent between stations in terms of detection times and changes required for detection. The existence of flow monitoring stations showing short detection times for specific indicators confirms the potential for identifying stations that may be first responders to climate induced changes. Identifying sentinel stations can increase the ability to more effectively optimise the deployment of resources for monitoring the influences of climatic change in a hydrometric reference network.

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts. PMID:21957451

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

PubMed

Cloern, James E; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D; Morgan, Tara L; Schoellhamer, David H; Stacey, Mark T; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R Wayne; Jassby, Alan D

2011-01-01

Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R.W.; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Advances in desertification and climate change research: Are they accessible for application to enhance adaptive capacity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seely, M.; Dirkx, E.; Hager, C.; Klintenberg, P.; Roberts, C.; von Oertzen, D.

2008-12-01

Sustainable living in arid lands is the goal of many, including local residents, policy-makers and scientists. Research into desertification and climate change has the potential to significantly enhance livelihoods of resident people. It also has the potential to contribute to their capacity for risk reduction, improved natural resources management and adaptation to climatic and other changes in multi-stressor systems. This potential is not frequently realised. To effectively ensure that scientific insights and contemporary technologies are applied, active involvement of and feedback from those who apply and use the benefits offered by science and technology are required. Scientists and technologists have to address the diverse, mainly non-technical, aspects required to understand and cope with endemic climate variability, desertification and climate change. They need to appropriately tailor their approaches to disseminate results, and communicate their findings in a way that can be understood and readily implemented by policy-makers, politicians and communities. At the same time, they must learn from experiences gained through implementation by users at all levels. The challenges of making the necessary connections between the combinatory effects of desertification and climate change and their effective application are explored and tested. It was found that several key factors contribute to making the necessary connections to facilitate application on all levels of research advances. These include translation, information dissemination, communication, communication platforms, boundary organisations and leadership contributing to knowledge, motivation and capacity. The purpose of this paper is to assess research experiences from integrated land and water resource management, the application of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and local-level monitoring of natural resources and their application to the challenges of desertification and climate change. The conclusion of this assessment is the identification and description of a common framework that can be applied to address the challenges of desertification and climate change.

Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.

PubMed

Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda

2018-05-31

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of mid-latitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.

Making the climate part of the human world: Why addressing beliefs and biases is necessary part of effective climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2009-12-01

Efforts to raise public awareness and understanding of the social, cultural and economic consequences of climate change often encounter skepticism. The primary causes of this skepticism, whether in the form of a mild rejection of proposed policy responses or an outright rejection of the basic scientific findings, is often cited to be the poor framing of issues by the scientific community, the quality of science education or public science literacy, disinformation campaigns by representatives of the coal and gas industry, individual resistance to behavioral change, and the hyperactive nature of the modern information culture. However, the root cause may be that the weather and climate, and by association climate change, is viewed as independent of the sphere of human influence in ancient and modern societies. In this presentation, I will outline how long-standing human beliefs in the separation between the earth and the sky and the modern framing of climate change as an “environmental” issue are limiting efforts to education the public about the causes, effects and possible response to climate change. First, sociological research in the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) finds strong evidence that beliefs in divine control of the weather and climate limit public acceptance of human-induced climate change. Second, media analysis and polling data from North America supports the role of belief and provides further evidence that climate change is viewed as a threat to an “other” labeled “the environment”, rather than a threat to people or society. The consequences of these mental models of the climate can be an outright reject of scientific theory related to climate change, a milder distrust of climate change predictions, a lack of urgency about mitigation, and an underestimate of the effort required to adapt to climate change. In order to be effective, public education about climate change needs to directly address the two, critical beliefs held by the majority of the audience. Proposed solutions include re-casting climate change as a broad societal concern, thus rejecting characterization of climate change as “environmental issue”, and clearly expressing to the audience the historical reasons why climate change may be hard to “believe”

An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information.

PubMed

Maguire, Martin C

2013-11-01

The EU EuroClim project developed a system to monitor and record climate change indicator data based on satellite observations of snow cover, sea ice and glaciers in Northern Europe and the Arctic. It also contained projection data for temperature, rainfall and average wind speed for Europe. These were all stored as data sets in a GIS database for users to download. The process of gathering requirements for a user population including scientists, researchers, policy makers, educationalists and the general public is described. Using an iterative design methodology, a user survey was administered to obtain initial feedback on the system concept followed by panel sessions where users were presented with the system concept and a demonstrator to interact with it. The requirements of both specialist and non-specialist users is summarised together with strategies for the effective communication of geographic climate change information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

2017-12-01

Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

Climate forcings and feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James

1993-01-01

Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino.

The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.

PubMed

Holyoak, Marcel; Heath, Sacha K

2016-01-01

A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

An investigation of the ways in which public health nutrition policy and practices can address climate change.

PubMed

Sulda, Heidi; Coveney, John; Bentley, Michael

2010-03-01

To develop a framework to guide action in the public health nutrition workforce to develop policies and practices addressing factors contributing to climate change. Action/consultative research. Interviews - South Australia, questionnaire - Australia. Interviews - key informants (n 6) were from various government, academic and non-government positions, invited through email. Questionnaire - participants were members of the public health nutrition workforce (n 186), recruited to the study through emails from public health nutrition contacts for each State in Australia (with the exception of South Australia). Support by participants for climate change as a valid role for dietitians and nutritionists was high (78 %). However, climate change was ranked low against other public health nutrition priorities. Support of participants to conduct programmes to address climate change from professional and work organisations was low. The final framework developed included elements of advocacy/lobbying, policy, professional recognition/support, organisational support, knowledge/skills, partnerships and programmes. This research demonstrates a need for public health nutrition to address climate change, which requires support by organisations, policy, improved knowledge and increased professional development opportunities.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

PubMed

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands.

PubMed

Foufopoulos, Johannes; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Ives, Anthony R

2011-01-01

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.

Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

How much should we know about energy to better implement climate change education?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Send, N.; Anders, S.

2011-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change requires us to understand complex and multidisciplinary aspects of climate science. But without also grasping the connection between our lifestyles, behavior, and energy use, it will be difficult for many of us to make changes to contribute to climate change mitigation and energy conservation. A deeper understanding of the energy-climate relationship related to our behavior is thus warranted because, as the internet-based EnergyLiteracy.org points out, albeit within a different but related context of national security and development, "The vast majority of Americans simply don't adequately understand the magnitude and urgency of our national energy crisis ..." and "That lack of understanding deprives our democracy of the political will that must be generated in order to adequately address...." these issues. Our NSF Climate Change Education Program Project, the San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership (SDRCEP), has as its overarching aim to inform citizens to make balanced decisions based on climate change and energy literacy. The project targets a selected group of 30 key influential persons in the region, and their audiences, representing, for example, the banking sector, the construction industry, the health sector, and commercial real estate. Interviews carried out so far suggest that the connection between climate change and energy use is not easily made. On the other hand, the interviews indicate that a connection is easily made, in this region, between climate change and water availability. Therefore, the purpose of this presentation is to discuss what specific knowledge about personal and societal energy use might be useful to (a) inform and empower key decision-makers responsible for energy-use decisions that significantly affect our lives in the next decades, and (b) empower people to contribute to reducing the impacts of climate change through behavioral or even life-style changes.

Climate change impact on growing degree day accumulation values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekere, Liga; Sile, Tija; Bethers, Uldis; Sennikovs, Juris

2015-04-01

A well-known and often used method to assess and forecast plant growth cycle is the growing degree day (GDD) method with different formulas used for accumulation calculations. With this method the only factor that affects plant development is temperature. So with climate change and therefore also change in temperature the typical times of plant blooming or harvest can be expected to change. The goal of this study is to assess this change in the Northern Europe region. As an example strawberry bloom and harvest times are used. As the first part of this study it was required to define the current GDD amounts required for strawberry bloom and harvest. It was done using temperature data from the Danish Meteorological Institute's (DMI) NWP model HIRLAM for the years 2010-2012 and general strawberry growth observations in Latvia. This way we acquired an example amount of GDD required for strawberry blooming and harvest. To assess change in the plant growth cycle we used regional climate models (RCM) - Euro-CORDEX. RCM temperature data for both past and future periods was analyzed and bias correction was carried out. Then the GDD calculation methodology was applied on corrected temperature data and results showing change in strawberry growth cycle - bloom and harvest times - in Northern Europe were visualized.

Threat to the Planet: Dark and Bright Sides of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2008-12-01

. Earth's history reveals that climate is sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet's energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite the climate system's great inertia, climate changes are emerging above the 'noise' of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are 'in the pipeline'. There is a clear and present danger of the climate passing certain 'tipping points', climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks guarantee large relatively rapid changes with no additional climate forcing. The fact that we are close to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will minimize many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes, and fresh water shortages. Actions required to stabilize climate, including prompt phase-out of coal emissions, are defined well enough by our understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and fossil fuel reservoirs. These actions would also yield cleaner air and water, with ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and wildlife preservation. Yet the actions required to stabilize climate are not being pursued. Denial of climate change by the fossil fuel industry and reactionary governments has been replaced by 'greenwash'. The policies of even the 'greenest' nations are demonstrably impotent for the purpose of averting climate disasters. I conclude that inaction stems in large part from 'success' of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. The consequence is intergenerational inequity and injustice, affecting negatively the young and the unborn. The defense of prior generations, that they 'did not know', is no longer viable. Indeed, actions by fossil fuel interests that served to deceive the public about the dangers of human-made climate change raise questions of ethics and legal liabilities. Youth, at least those who are not too young or unborn, have recourse through democratic systems, but continued failure of the political process may cause increasing public protests.

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

PubMed Central

Kates, Robert W.; Travis, William R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations. PMID:22509036

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.

PubMed

Kates, Robert W; Travis, William R; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2012-05-08

All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-06-24

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-07-01

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

PubMed

Elliott, Michael; Borja, Ángel; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail; Mazik, Krysia; Birchenough, Silvana; Andersen, Jesper H; Painting, Suzanne; Peck, Myron

2015-06-15

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change.

PubMed

Williams, Caroline M; Henry, Hugh A L; Sinclair, Brent J

2015-02-01

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

The species velocity of trees in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; de Lafontaine, G.; Heath, K.; Li, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has motivated interest in the paleo record to enhance our knowledge about past vegetation responses to climate change and help understand potential responses in the future. Additionally, polar regions currently experience the most rapid rates of climate change globally, prompting concern over changes in the ecological composition of high latitude ecosystems. Recent analyses have attempted to construct methods to estimate a species' ability to track climate change by computing climate velocity; a measure of the rate of climate displacement across a landscape which may indicate the speed an organism must migrate to keep pace with climate change. However, a challenge to using climate velocity in understanding range shifts is a lack of species-specificity in the velocity calculations: climate velocity does not actually use any species data in its analysis. To solve the shortcomings of climate velocity in estimating species displacement rates, we computed the "species velocity" of white spruce, green and grey alder populations across the state of Alaska from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today. Species velocity represents the rate and direction a species is required to migrate to keep pace with a changing climate following the LGM. We used a species distribution model to determine past and present white spruce and alder distributions using statistically downscaled climate data at 60m. Species velocity was then derived from the change in species distribution per year by the change in distribution over Alaska (km/yr). High velocities indicate locations where the species environmental envelope is changing drastically and must disperse rapidly to survive climate change. As a result, high velocity regions are more vulnerable to distribution shifts and higher risk of local extinction. Conversely, low species velocities indicate locations where the local climate envelope is shifting relatively slowly, reducing the stress to disperse quickly with minimal loss of optimal habitat. Our results suggest that these species do not exclusively redistribute to higher latitudes and elevations in a warming climate, suggesting that 1) microtopography plays a significant role in the distribution of a species and 2) many species may not be tracking temperature change, but other climate restrictions.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

2018-06-01

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

2017-07-01

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

Communicating Urban Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership

2011-12-01

While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of models for community programming and this session will present early results of these efforts while engaging participants in exploring approaches to connecting urban communities and their local concerns to the issues of global climate change.

Energyscapes and prey fields shape a North Atlantic seabird wintering hotspot under climate change

PubMed Central

Fort, J.; Mathewson, P. D.; Speirs, D. C.; Perret, S.; Porter, W. P.; Wilson, R. J.

2018-01-01

There is an urgent need for a better understanding of animal migratory ecology under the influence of climate change. Most current analyses require long-term monitoring of populations on the move, and shorter-term approaches are needed. Here, we analysed the ecological drivers of seabird migration within the framework of the energyscape concept, which we defined as the variations in the energy requirements of an organism across geographical space as a function of environmental conditions. We compared the winter location of seabirds with their modelled energy requirements and prey fields throughout the North Atlantic. Across six winters, we tracked the migration of 94 little auks (Alle alle), a key sentinel Arctic species, between their East Greenland breeding site and wintering areas off Newfoundland. Winter energyscapes were modelled with Niche Mapper™, a mechanistic tool which takes into account local climate and bird ecophysiology. Subsequently, we used a resource selection function to explain seabird distributions through modelled energyscapes and winter surface distribution of one of their main prey, Calanus finmarchicus. Finally, future energyscapes were calculated according to IPCC climate change scenarios. We found that little auks targeted areas with high prey densities and moderately elevated energyscapes. Predicted energyscapes for 2050 and 2095 showed a decrease in winter energy requirements under the high emission scenario, which may be beneficial if prey availability is maintained. Overall, our study demonstrates the great potential of the energyscape concept for the study of animal spatial ecology, in particular in the context of global change. PMID:29410875

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

PubMed

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.

PubMed

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa A; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

2010-03-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of atmospheric and climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting the manner in which global change will alter ecosystem functioning.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

2000-01-01

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Communicating climate information to end-users: an experience driven by the understanding and anticipation of user needs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaumont, Diane; Huard, David; Logan, Travis; Sottile, Marie-France; Brown, Ross; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Grenier, Patrick; Braun, Marco

2013-04-01

Planning and adapting to a changing climate requires credible information about the magnitude and rate of projected changes. Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change was launched in the Province of Québec, Canada, ten years ago, with the objective of developing and providing climate information and expertise in support to adaption. Ouranos differs from most other climate service centers by integrating climate modeling activities, impacts and adaptation expertise and climate analysis services under one roof. The Climate Scenarios Group operates at the interface between climate modellers and users and is responsible for developing, producing and communicating climate scenarios to end-users in a consistent manner. This process requires close collaboration with users to define, understand and eventually anticipate their needs. The varied scientific expertise of climate scenarios specialists --who also act as communicators-- has proven to be a key element for successful communication. A large amount of effort is spent on the characterization and communication of the uncertainties involved in scenario construction. Two main activities have been put in place by the experts in climate modeling to address this: (1) a training course on climate models and (2) a fact-sheet summarizing the uncertainty and robustness of the climate change scenario provided for each I&A application. The latter tool ensures the transparency, traceability, and accountability of our products, and at the same time, encourages a sense of shared responsibility for the final choice of climate scenarios. In addition to uncertainty, two other main issues have been identified as essential in communication with users: 1) observed natural variability at relevant scales and 2) reconciliation of the projected trend with the recent observed trend. Our group has devoted substantial resources for the advancement of communication with end-users in these particular areas. This presentation will provide an overview of progress in communicating climate information at the Ouranos Consortium. We will discuss success and failures and future plans, in particular the extent to which Ouranos needs to work with users in decision-making activities.

Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A

2005-11-29

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.

Workshop on Bridging Satellite Climate Data Gaps.

PubMed

Cooksey, Catherine; Datla, Raju

2011-01-01

Detecting the small signals of climate change for the most essential climate variables requires that satellite sensors make highly accurate and consistent measurements. Data gaps in the time series (such as gaps resulting from launch delay or failure) and inconsistencies in radiometric scales between satellites undermine the credibility of fundamental climate data records, and can lead to erroneous analysis in climate change detection. To address these issues, leading experts in Earth observations from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and academia assembled at the National Institute of Standards and Technology on December 10, 2009 for a workshop to prioritize strategies for bridging and mitigating data gaps in the climate record. This paper summarizes the priorities for ensuring data continuity of variables relevant to climate change in the areas of atmosphere, land, and ocean measurements and the recommendations made at the workshop for overcoming planned and unplanned gaps in the climate record.

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol.

PubMed

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-12-23

For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol

PubMed Central

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Introduction For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. Methods and analysis A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. PMID:28011805

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Rabin, Sam; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Pugh, Thomas A M; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut

2018-02-27

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels' changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ-GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Developing Water Resource Security in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained Context - A Case Study in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; Aghakouchak, A.; Samuelsen, S.

2015-12-01

The onset of drought conditions in regions such as California due to shortfalls in precipitation has brought refreshed attention to the vulnerability of our water supply paradigm to changes in climate patterns. In the face of a changing climate which can exacerbate drought conditions in already dry areas, building resiliency into our water supply infrastructure requires some decoupling of water supply availability from climate behavior through conservation, efficiency, and alternative water supply measures such as desalination and water reuse. The installation of these measures requires varying degrees of direct energy inputs and/or impacts the energy usage of the water supply infrastructure (conveyance, treatment, distribution, wastewater treatment). These impacts have implications for greenhouse gas emissions from direct fuel usage or impacts on the emissions from the electric grid. At the scale that these measures may need to be deployed to secure water supply availability, especially under climate change impacted hydrology, they can potentially pose obstacles for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable utilization goals. Therefore, the portfolio of these measures must be such that detrimental impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are minimized. This study combines climate data with a water reservoir network model and an electric grid dispatch model for the water-energy system of California to evaluate 1) the different pathways and scale of alternative water resource measures needed to secure water supply availability and 2) the impacts of following these pathways on the ability to meet greenhouse gas and renewable utilization goals. It was discovered that depending on the water supply measure portfolio implemented, impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and renewable utilization can either be beneficial or detrimental, and optimizing the portfolio is more important under climate change conditions due to the scale of measures required.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa.

PubMed

Lyam, Paul Terwase; Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species' genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species' ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species' adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

PubMed Central

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

PubMed Central

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change.

PubMed

Jordan, Rebecca; Hoffmann, Ary A; Dillon, Shannon K; Prober, Suzanne M

2017-11-01

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty-one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species' evolutionary potential. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

2018-02-01

Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

Climate Change and Health in the Urban Context: The Experience of Barcelona.

PubMed

Villalbí, Joan R; Ventayol, Irma

2016-07-01

Climate change poses huge challenges for public health, and cities are at the forefront of this process. The purpose of this paper is to present the issues climate change poses for public health in the city of Barcelona, how they are being addressed, and what are the current major challenges, trying to contribute to the development of a baseline understanding of the status of adaptation in cities from a public health perspective. The major issues related to climate change faced by the city are common to other urban centers in a Mediterranean climate: heat waves, water availability and quality, air quality, and diseases transmitted by vectors, and all are reviewed in detail with empirical data. They are not a potential threat for the future, but have actually challenged the city services and infrastructure over the last years, requiring sustainable responses and rigorous planning. © The Author(s) 2016.

Narratives of dynamic lands: science education, indigenous knowledge and possible futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinty, Megan; Bang, Megan

2016-06-01

We aim to share some of our work currently focused on understanding and unearthing the multiplicities of ways the denial of culture in relation to science and knowledge construction is embedded in issues of climate change and climate change education. The issues become more troubling when we consider how effects of climate change are manifesting locally in ways that force shifts in Indigenous ways of living while simultaneously nation-states seem to think that continued or increased control of Indigenous practice is warranted. For us, taking the implications of such approaches seriously requires significant consideration of how climate education impacts Indigenous learners and whether learning western climate science is indeed part of making real change important. In our work we have focused on the ways in which settler-colonialism and the resultant racialized hierarchies permeate science education and contribute to an expectation of human entitlement to land and a notion of land permanence.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Adapting forest management to climate change using bioclimate models with topographic drivers

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; James J. Worrall; Suzanne B. Marchetti; Nicholas L. Crookston

2015-01-01

Bioclimate models incorporating topographic predictors as surrogates for microclimate effects are developed for Populus tremuloides and Picea engelmannii to provide the fine-grained specificity to local terrain required for adapting management of three Colorado (USA) national forests (1.28 million ha) and their periphery to climate change. Models were built with the...

Genetic variation in the southern pines: evolution, migration, and adaptation following the pleistocene

Treesearch

Ronald Schmidtling

2007-01-01

Climate has certainly changed over time, requiring genetic change or migration of forest tree species. Little is known about the location of the southern pines during the Pleistocene glaciation, which ended around 14,000 years ago. Macrofossils of spruce (Picea spp.) dating from the late Pleistocene, which are typical of climates much cooler than...

Shifting the Narrative: Child-Led Responses to Climate Change and Disasters in El Salvador and the Philippines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanner, Thomas

2010-01-01

Children and young people are commonly treated in the climate change and disasters literature as victims of natural events requiring protection by adults. This article critiques that narrative, drawing on examples from the Philippines and El Salvador that explore how children's groups have responded to such issues through child-centred…

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

Treesearch

Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

LGBT Students Want Educators to Speak up for Them

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Abe Louise

2011-01-01

Changing a school's culture with regard to how it treats lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender students can seem impossible, the author says. Educators must take the temperature of a school climate, map a route, establish rules, and hand out safety gear. Mostly, changing that climate will require educators to listen closely to students and hear…

Application of the global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) mobile apps to land degradation, restoration and climate change adaptation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Combatting land degradation, promoting restoration and adapting to climate change all require an understanding of land potential. A global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) is being developed that will address many of these limitations using an open source approach designed to allow anyone w...

Determining suitable locations for seed transfer under climate change: a global quantitative method

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2012-01-01

Changing climate conditions will complicate efforts to match seed sources with the environments to which they are best adapted. Tree species distributions may have to shift to match new environmental conditions, potentially requiring the establishment of some species entirely outside of their current distributions to thrive. Even within the portions of tree species...

The climate change performance scorecard and carbon estimates for national forest

Treesearch

John W. Coulston; Kellen Nelson; Christopher W. Woodall; David Meriwether; Gregory A. Reams

2012-01-01

The U.S. Forest Service manages 20 percent of the forest land in the United States. Both the Climate Change Performance Scorecard and the revised National Forest Management Act require the assessment of carbon stocks on these lands. We present circa 2010 estimates of carbon stocks for each national forest and recommendations to improve these estimates.

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs

PubMed Central

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E.

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar’s major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs. PMID:23736941

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

PubMed

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K

2006-01-10

Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiplemore » climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.« less

The idiosyncrasies of streams: local variability mitigates vulnerability of trout to changing conditions

Treesearch

Andrea Watts; Brooke Penaluna; Jason Dunham

2016-01-01

Land use and climate change are two key factors with the potential to affect stream conditions and fish habitat. Since the 1950s, Washington and Oregon have required forest practices designed to mitigate the effects of timber harvest on streams and fish. Yet questions remain about the extent to which these practices are effective. Add in the effects of climate change—...

Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

2016-06-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Can We Consume Our Way Out of Climate Change? A Call for Analysis

PubMed Central

Grant, Lyle K

2011-01-01

The problem of climate change is analyzed as a manifestation of economic growth, and the steady-state economy of ecological economics is proposed as a system-wide solution. Four classes of more specific solutions are described. In the absence of analysis, cultural inertia will bias solutions in favor of green consumption as a generalized solution strategy. By itself, green consumption is a flawed solution to climate change because it perpetuates or even accelerates economic growth that is incompatible with a sustainable culture. Addressing climate change requires an integration of regulatory, energy efficiency, skill-based, and dissemination solutions. Behavioral scientists are encouraged to work with others in ecological economics and other social sciences who recognize cultural reinvention as a means of achieving sustainability. PMID:22532747

Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

2014-01-01

While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed. PMID:25229697

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and applications. We argue that the current state of climate science provides actionable information on climate risks in the region, and will articulate the need and required elements for a Saco-specific climate study request.

Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.;

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield variability is more affected than perennial biomass plantings, comparatively little of the study area is economically viable for conversion to biomass under $200/DM t, and it is not until prices exceed $200/DM t that significant areas become profitable for biomass plantings. We conclude that for biomass to become a valuable diversification option the synchronisation of products and services derived from biomass and the development of markets is vital. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

2009-04-01

Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

PubMed

Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

2015-09-01

Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

2015-11-01

Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

Assessment of impacts of climate change on gender in the context of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paudel, R.; Acharya, A.

2016-12-01

Climate change and its impact on gender in the context of Nepal has not been clearly understood due to lack of proper scientific research in terms of gender and climate change. Climate induced disasters such as droughts, floods, GLOFs, and landslides affect men and women differently. This study is conducted to analyze the scenario of gender equality, and impacts of climate change on gender in Nepal. This study also identifies gender based adaptation approaches through the use of observed climate data, and projected and modeled demographic data such as Adolescent Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, and Maternal Mortality Ratio. The major tasks of this project include the calculation of Gender Inequality Index (GII), trend analysis and correlation between GII and temperature, that helps to evaluate the women vulnerability and identify the gender based adaptation interventions in Nepal. The required data on gender and temperature are obtained from World Bank and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. GII is calculated for almost 26 years starting from the year 1990 by utilizing a tool "Calculating the Indices using Excel" provided through the UNDP. The Reproductive Health Index (RHI), Empowerment Index (EI), and Labor Market Index (LMI) that are required to determine GII are also calculated through the use of same tool. The trend analysis shows that GII follows a decreasing trend indicating higher gender equality. The correlation analysis shows the temperature positively correlated with RHI (r=0.64), EI Female (r=0.61), and EI Male (r=0.73). In case of LMI, temperature is positively correlated with female (r=0.14) and negatively correlated with male (r=-0.57). The analysis depicts negative correlation (r=-0.68) between climate change and GII. This research will provide some valuable insights in the research relating to gender and climate change that could help gender advocates and policymakers in developing further plans for women empowerment.

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

PubMed

Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

2009-12-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

PubMed

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Climate change and sustainable food production.

PubMed

Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J

2013-02-01

One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, 'food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life'. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.

Mainstreaming Climate Change: Recent and Ongoing Efforts to Understand, Improve, and Expand Consideration of Climate Change in Federal Water Resources Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; McGuire, M.; Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is a Federal agency tasked with developing and managing water supply and hydropower projects in the Western U.S. Climate and hydrologic variability and change significantly impact management actions and outcomes across Reclamation's programs and initiatives, including water resource planning and operations, infrastructure design and maintenance, hydropower generation, and ecosystem restoration, among others. Planning, design, and implementation of these programs therefore requires consideration of future climate and hydrologic conditions will impact program objectives. Over the past decade, Reclamation and other Federal agencies have adopted new guidelines, directives, and mandates that require consideration of climate change in water resources planning and decision making. Meanwhile, the scientific community has developed a large number of climate projections, along with an array of models, methods, and tools to facilitate consideration of climate projections in planning and decision making. However, water resources engineers, planners, and decision makers continue to face challenges regarding how best to use the available data and tools to support major decisions, including decisions regarding infrastructure investments and long-term operating criteria. This presentation will discuss recent and ongoing research towards understanding, improving, and expanding consideration of climate projections and related uncertainties in Federal water resources planning and decision making. These research efforts address a variety of challenges, including: How to choose between available climate projection datasets and related methods, models, and tools—many of which are considered experimental or research tools? How to select an appropriate decision framework when design or operating alternatives may differ between climate scenarios? How to effectively communicate results of a climate impacts analysis to decision makers? And, how to improve robustness and resilience of water resources systems in the face of significant uncertainty? Discussion will focus on the intersection between technical challenges and decision making paradigms and the need for improved scientist-decision maker engagement through the lens of this Federal water management agency.

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiricka, Alexandra, E-mail: alexandra.jiricka@boku.ac.at; Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute for Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna; Formayer, Herbert

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviewsmore » were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without reliable data but in the presence of knowledge about possible consequences at an abstract level. A joint strategy on how to cope with uncertain prognoses about main impacts on environmental issues for areas without reliable data requires a discussion and cooperation between EIA consultants and environmental authorities. - Highlights: • The consideration of climate change impacts in EIA practice in Austria and Germany was analysed through expert interviews. • Barriers as well as possible solutions were indentified by the different groups of actors involved in EIA. • The main challenges regard the investigation of specific entry points. • Limits of feasibility need to be discussed amongst the different groups of actors.« less

Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

PubMed

Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

2014-03-01

The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

Heat Transport Compensation in Atmosphere and Ocean over the Past 22,000 Years

PubMed Central

Yang, Haijun; Zhao, Yingying; Liu, Zhengyu; Li, Qing; He, Feng; Zhang, Qiong

2015-01-01

The Earth’s climate has experienced dramatic changes over the past 22,000 years; however, the total meridional heat transport (MHT) of the climate system remains stable. A 22,000-year-long simulation using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model shows that the changes in atmosphere and ocean MHT are significant but tend to be out of phase in most regions, mitigating the total MHT change, which helps to maintain the stability of the Earth’s overall climate. A simple conceptual model is used to understand the compensation mechanism. The simple model can reproduce qualitatively the evolution and compensation features of the MHT over the past 22,000 years. We find that the global energy conservation requires the compensation changes in the atmosphere and ocean heat transports. The degree of compensation is mainly determined by the local climate feedback between surface temperature and net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere. This study suggests that an internal mechanism may exist in the climate system, which might have played a role in constraining the global climate change over the past 22,000 years. PMID:26567710

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, J. W.

1995-01-01

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes.

PubMed

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-13

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-01

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

2014-12-01

Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective impact on climate literacy can be viewed at http://tinyurl.com/mgwndtr.

Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

2013-12-01

Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

2014-01-01

Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

Enhancing the Communication of Climate Change Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.; Hassol, S. J.

2011-12-01

Climate scientists have an important role to play in the critical task of informing the public, media and policymakers. Scientists can help in publicizing and illuminating climate science. However, this task requires combining climate science expertise with advanced communication skills. For example, it is entirely possible to convey scientific information accurately without using jargon or technical concepts unfamiliar to non-scientists. However, making this translation into everyday language is a job that few scientists have been trained to do. In this talk, we give examples from our recent experience working with scientists to enhance their ability to communicate well. Our work includes providing training, technical assistance, and communications tools to climate scientists and universities, government agencies, and research centers. Our experience ranges from preparing Congressional testimony to writing major climate science reports to appearing on television. We have also aided journalists in gathering reliable scientific information and identifying trustworthy experts. Additionally, we are involved in developing resources freely available online at climatecommunication.org. These include a feature on the links between climate change and extreme weather, a climate science primer, and graphics and video explaining key developments in climate change science.

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

2018-01-01

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

WRF Test on IBM BG/L:Toward High Performance Application to Regional Climate Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, H S

The effects of climate change will mostly be felt on local to regional scales (Solomon et al., 2007). To develop better forecast skill in regional climate change, an integrated multi-scale modeling capability (i.e., a pair of global and regional climate models) becomes crucially important in understanding and preparing for the impacts of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales that are critical to California's and nation's future environmental quality and economical prosperity. Accurate knowledge of detailed local impact on the water management system from climate change requires a resolution of 1km or so. To this end, a high performancemore » computing platform at the petascale appears to be an essential tool in providing such local scale information to formulate high quality adaptation strategies for local and regional climate change. As a key component of this modeling system at LLNL, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is implemented and tested on the IBM BG/L machine. The objective of this study is to examine the scaling feature of WRF on BG/L for the optimal performance, and to assess the numerical accuracy of WRF solution on BG/L.« less

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions.

PubMed

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E; Armour, Kyle C; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Chepfer, Helene; Docquier, David; Jonko, Alexandra; Kushner, Paul J; Lecomte, Olivier; Massonnet, François; Park, Hyo-Seok; Pithan, Felix; Svensson, Gunilla; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range of feedbacks, offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.

Implications of climate change predictions for UK cropping and prospects for possible mitigation: a review of challenges and potential responses.

PubMed

Rial-Lovera, Karen; Davies, W Paul; Cannon, Nicola D

2017-01-01

The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO 2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Green cities, smart people and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Byrne, J. M.; Hazendonk, P.; Brown, M. B.; Harrison, T.

2014-12-01

Climate change will require substantial changes to urban environments. Cities are huge sources of greenhouse gases. Further, cities will suffer tremendously under climate change due to heat stresses, urban flooding, energy and water supply and demand changes, transportation problems, resource supply and demand and a host of other trials and tribulations. Cities that evolve most quickly and efficiently to deal with climate change will likely take advantage of the changes to create enjoyable, healthy and safer living spaces for families and communities. Technology will provide much of the capability to both mitigate and adapt our cities BUT education and coordination of citizen and community lifestyle likely offers equal opportunities to make our cities more sustainable and more enjoyable places to live. This work is the first phase of a major project evaluating urban mitigation and adaptation policies, programs and technologies. All options are considered, from changes in engineering, planning and management; and including a range of citizen and population-based lifestyle practices.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

An alternate approach to assessing climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Casey; Wilby, Robert L.

2012-10-01

U.S. federal agencies are now required to review the potential impacts of climate change on their assets and missions. Similar arrangements are also in place in the United Kingdom under reporting powers for key infrastructure providers (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/sectors/reporting-authorities/reporting-authorities-reports/). These requirements reflect growing concern about climate resilience and the management of long-lived assets. At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even ft for the purpose; in addition, several important issues are often overlooked when incorporating climate information into adaptation decisions. An alternative to the scenarioled strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis ("stress test"), may identify practical options for resource managers.

Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Gong, Minghao; Guan, Tianpei; Hou, Meng; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Tianyuan

2017-01-01

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J

2009-04-01

Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

Air quality and climate--synergies and trade-offs.

PubMed

von Schneidemesser, Erika; Monks, Paul S

2013-07-01

Air quality and climate are often treated as separate science and policy areas. Air quality encompasses the here-and-now of pollutant emissions, atmospheric transformations and their direct effect on human and ecosystem health. Climate change deals with the drivers leading to a warmer world and the consequences of that. These two science and policy issues are inexorably linked via common pollutants, such as ozone (methane) and black carbon. This short review looks at the new scientific evidence around so-called "short-lived climate forcers" and the growing realisation that a way to meet short-term climate change targets may be through the control of "air quality" pollutants. None of the options discussed here can replace reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, which is required for any long-term climate change mitigation strategy. An overview is given of the underlying science, remaining uncertainties, and some of the synergies and trade-offs for addressing air quality and climate in the science and policy context.

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

PubMed

Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

2015-06-01

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

2013-04-01

Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this submission focuses on the production of climatic scenarios for application in hydrology, the submission « The (cQ)2 project: assessing watershed scale hydrological changes for the province of Québec at the 2050 horizon, a collaborative framework » by Catherine Guay describes how Hydro-Québec and CEHQ put the data into use.

Adaptation of rainfed agriculture to climatic variability in the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogé, P.; Friedman, A. R.; Astier, M.; Altieri, M.

2015-12-01

The traditional management systems of the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico offer historical lessons about resilience to climatic variability. We interviewed small farmers to inquire about the dynamics of abandonment and persistence of a traditional management systems. We interpret farmers' narratives from a perspective of general agroecological resilience. In addition, we facilitated workshops in small farmers described their adaptation to past climate challenges and identified 14 indicators that they subsequently used to evaluate the condition of their agroecosystems. The most recent years presented increasingly extreme climatic and socioeconomic hardships: increased temperatures, delayed rainy seasons, reduced capacity of soils to retain soil moisture, changing cultural norms, and reduced rural labor. Farmers reported that their cropping systems were changing for multiple reasons: more drought, later rainfall onset, decreased rural labor, and introduced labor-saving technologies. Examination of climate data found that farmers' climate narratives were largely consistent with the observational record. There have been increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and an increase in rainfall seasonality that may be perceived as later rainfall onset. Farmers ranked landscape-scale indicators as more marginal than farmer management or soil quality indicators. From this analysis, farmers proposed strategies to improve the ability of their agroecosystems to cope with climatic variability. Notably, they recognized that social organizing and education are required for landscape-level indicators to be improved. Transformative change is required to develop novel cropping systems and complementary activities to agriculture that will allow for farming to be sustained in the face of these challenges. Climate change adaptation by small farmers involves much more than just a set of farming practices, but also community action to tackle collective problems.

Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges

PubMed Central

A. Betts, Richard

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. PMID:16433093

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change.

PubMed

Applebaum, Katie M; Graham, Jay; Gray, George M; LaPuma, Peter; McCormick, Sabrina A; Northcross, Amanda; Perry, Melissa J

2016-03-01

Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.

Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The paradigm of integrated water resources management requires coupled analysis of hydrology and water resources in a river basin. Population growth and uncertainties due to climate change make historic data not a reliable source of information for future planning of water resources, hence necessit...

Dynamic phenotypic plasticity in photosynthesis and biomass patterns in Douglas-fir seedlings

Treesearch

A. C. Koehn; G. I. McDonald; D. L. Turner; D. L. Adams

2010-01-01

As climate changes, understanding the mechanisms long-lived conifers use to adapt becomes more important. Light gradients within a forest stand vary constantly with the changes in climate, and the minimum light required for survival plays a major role in plant community dynamics. This study focuses on the dynamic plasticity of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var....

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Meng, Qingfeng; Chen, Xinping; Lobell, David B; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Yi; Yang, Haishun; Zhang, Fusuo

2016-01-25

Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.

Customer Use Cases and Analytics for Climate Data at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchey, N. A.; Brewer, M.; Houston, T.; Hollingshead, A.; Jones, N.; Dissen, J.

2017-12-01

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is the world's largest repository of climate data. Customer analytics and uses of NCEI information are critical to understanding and evolving NCEI's suite of use-inspired data and information to make them applicable to decision making. Over the past three years, NCEI's Center for Weather and Climate has made a concerted effort to: 1) Establish a system for collection of user requirements, 2) Ensure that collected information informs product area management and prioritization activities, and 3) Include user insights into future products and product versions. These process changes require a long-term commitment to climate services and success is not possible with a "build it and they will come" mentality nor with a "drop-in, drop-out" customer engagement strategy. This presentation will focus on the path necessary to get from effective user engagement, centered on collection and adjudication of user requirements, all the way through the outcomes of the changed products and services and how those have benefitted users, including economic examples.

(Climate) Change in young people's minds - From categories towards interconnections between the anthroposphere and natural sphere.

PubMed

Körfgen, Annemarie; Keller, Lars; Kuthe, Alina; Oberrauch, Anna; Stötter, Hans

2017-02-15

The grand challenges of the 21st century will increasingly require societies to reconsider the pathways taken thus far. Engagement with climate change is of ever-growing importance to young people. They will be confronted with the effects of climate change throughout their entire lives and, as future decision-makers, they will vitally shape societal developments. Education will thus play a crucial role in the transformation to a sustainable society. In terms of awareness-raising, an important first step in preparing young people for the challenges of the 21st century is to understand what content is connected with climate change. As complex challenges, such as climate change, demand ways of thinking that go beyond categories, interconnections between the anthroposphere and the natural sphere have to be taken into consideration. This study provides an insight into the questions and topics young people develop whilst becoming involved in climate change in an in-school learning setting and in an out-of-school learning setting (a high mountain environment). The analysis focuses on the question of in which spheres students predominantly make their thematic choices and how far the interconnections between different spheres are formed. Our results show that the choice of the learning setting influences the topics students connect with climate change. Interconnections between sub-spheres of the anthroposphere and natural sphere are made only occasionally. These findings serve as a basis for reconsidering the content and foundation of climate change communication with young people. We recommend that climate change educational programmes should include phases that allow the following: a) involvement with climate change issues related to single spheres in the first phase, and b) consideration of the interconnections between spheres when becoming involved with climate change issues in the second phase. As the educational setting can considerably influence the focus of the learning process, it should be chosen thoughtfully. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experiments with the living dead: Plants as monitors and recorders of Biosphere Geosphere interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomax, Barry; Fraser, Wesley

2016-04-01

Understanding variations in the Earth's climate history will enhance our understanding of and capacity to predict future climate change. Importantly this information can then be used to reduce uncertainty around future climate change predictions. However to achieve this, it is necessary to develop well constrained and robustly tested palaeo-proxies. Plants are innately coupled to the atmosphere requiring both sunlight and CO2 to drive photosynthesis and carbon assimilation. When combined with their resilience and persistence, the study of plant responses to climate change in concert with the analysis of fossil plants offer the opportunity to monitor past atmospheric conditions and infer palaeoclimate change. In this presentation we highlight how this approach is leading to the development of mechanistic palaeoproxies tested on palaeobotanically relevant extant species showing that plant fossils can be used as both monitors and geochemical recorders of atmospheric changes.

Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paukert, Craig P.; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

2016-01-01

Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees.

PubMed

Luedeling, Eike; Girvetz, Evan H; Semenov, Mikhail A; Brown, Patrick H

2011-01-01

Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.

Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

PubMed

Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

2013-12-19

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science

PubMed Central

Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

2013-01-01

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252

Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N.

2012-09-01

The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system. To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories. This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of ~0.25%yr-1 per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become ~ 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr-1 to ~-13%yr-1. It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases.

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Terando, Adam J.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2015-01-01

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures.

PubMed

Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G Page; Morgan, M Granger; Patel, Pralit; Liu, Lu

2016-11-15

This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3-7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35-40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Carbon cycle observations: gaps threaten climate mitigation policies

Treesearch

Richard Birdsey; Nick Bates; MIke Behrenfeld; Kenneth Davis; Scott C. Doney; Richard Feely; Dennis Hansell; Linda Heath; et al.

2009-01-01

Successful management of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires robust and sustained carbon cycle observations. Yet key elements of a national observation network are lacking or at risk. A U.S. National Research Council review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program earlier this year highlighted the critical need for a U.S. climate observing system to...

75 FR 12976 - Amendment of Restricted Area R-2204 High and R-2204 Low; Oliktok Point, AK

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-18

... Oliktok, AK, is required for current moored balloon and future climate-related aviation activities. DATES... in support of the proposed rule stressing the importance of continued climate studies at Oliktok... regions to climate change. In 2004, the need to operate an unlighted moored balloon in clouds resulted in...

The measurement of climate change using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution and Along Track Scanning Radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, S. P.; Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Smith, S. J.

2004-08-01

Global sea-surface temperature is an important indicator of climate change, with the ability to reflect warming/cooling climate trends. The detection of such trends requires rigorous measurements that are global, accurate, and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in sea-surface temperature data. Analyses of two independent data sets from the Advanced Very High Resolution and Along Track Scanning Radiometers series of space sensors during the period 1985 to 2000 reveal trends of increasing global temperature with magnitudes of 0.09°C and 0.13°C per decade, respectively, closely matching that expected due to current levels of greenhouse gas exchange. In addition, an analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of El Niño in order to examine areas of change other than the tropical Pacific region, indicates that the 1997 El Niño event affected sea-surface temperature globally. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data sets, which cover long time series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterize long-term change. The conclusion is that satellite sea-surface temperature provides an important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change.

Preparing teachers to address climate change with project-based instructional modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powers, S. E.; DeWaters, J.; Small, M.; Dhaniyala, S.

2012-12-01

Clarkson University's Project-Based Global Climate Change Education project funded by NASA has created and disseminated several instructional modules for middle and high school teachers. The modules were developed by a team of teachers and university students and faculty. Fundamental to these inquiry-based modules are questions about climate change or mitigation efforts, use of real-world data to explore historical climate changes, and review of IPCC model results to understand predictions of further changes over the next century. As an example, the Climate Connections module requires middle school students to investigate a geographic region, learn about the culture and likely carbon footprint, and then acquire and analyze data sets of historical and predicted temperature changes. The findings are then interpreted in relation to the impact of these changes on the region's culture. NOAA, NASA, IPCC and DOE databases are used extensively. The inquiry approach and core content included in these modules are well aligned with the new Framework for K-12 Science Education. The climate change science in these modules covers aspects of the disciplinary core subjects (dimension 3) and most of the cross cutting concepts (dimension 2). Our approach for inquiry and analysis are also authentic ways to include most of the science and engineering practices (dimension 1) included in the framework. Dissemination of the modules to teachers in New York State has been a joint effort by NYSERDA (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority) and Clarkson. Half-day and full-day workshops and week-long institutes provided opportunities to either introduce the modules and the basics of finding and using temperature data, or delve into the science concepts and integration of the modules into an instructional plan. A significant challenge has been identified by the workshop instructors - many science teachers lack the skills necessary to fully engage in the science and engineering practices required for dimension 1 of the Framework for K-12 Science Education. Downloading data, using a spreadsheet to plot and analyze data and calculating basic statistical parameters are new skills for many of the teachers with whom we have worked. But our teacher professional development opportunities have been effective. 23 teachers attended the intensive one or two week-long institutes. A pre- and post-climate literacy survey administered to these teachers showed statistically significant gains (p <0.01) in their climate change content knowledge and attitudes. For example, the percentage of teachers who agreed or strongly agreed to the statement "Life on earth will continue without major disruptions only if we take immediate and drastic action to reduce global warming" increased from 52% to 90% (pre, post). Changes in responses to the behavior items were not significant. Presentation of this work will include a brief introduction to the instructional modules and climate literacy assessment as a basis for identifying the prerequisite skill sets needed by science teachers to effectively incorporate new content and engineering practices through projects that require accessing and analyzing real-world climate change and mitigation data.

Climate Communication from a Science Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2012-12-01

Today, the world faces crucial choices in deciding what to do about climate change. Wise policy can be usefully informed by sound science. Scientists who are both climate experts and skilled communicators can provide valuable input into this policy process. They can help the public, media and policymakers learn what science has discovered about climate change. Scientists as a group are widely admired throughout the world. They can often use their prestige as well as their technical knowledge to advantage in publicizing and illuminating the findings of climate science. However, most scientists are unaware of the main obstacles to effective communication, such as the distrust that arises when the scientist and the audience do not have a shared worldview and shared cultural values. Many climate scientists also fail to realize that the jargon they use in their work is a significant barrier to communication, and that their messages requires skilled translation into the everyday language that people understand. Scientists need to recognize that lecturing is almost always poor communication. Speaking in a television interview or a Congressional hearing is completely unlike teaching a class of graduate students. The people whom one is trying to reach are rarely hungry for pure scientific information. Instead, they want to know how climate change will affect them and what can be done about it. Communicating climate science resembles skiing or speaking a foreign language: it is a skill that can be learned, but beginners are well advised to take lessons from expert instructors. Becoming adept at climate communication requires study and practice. Effective professional training in climate communication is available for those scientists who have the time and the willingness to improve as communicators.

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

PubMed

Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

2015-01-01

Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.

Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.

PubMed

Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad

2016-04-01

Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micro-topographic hydrologic variability due to vegetation acclimation under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, P. V.; Kumar, P.

2012-12-01

Land surface micro-topography and vegetation cover have fundamental effects on the land-atmosphere interactions. The altered temperature and precipitation variability associated with climate change will affect the water and energy processes both directly and that mediated through vegetation. Since climate change induces vegetation acclimation that leads to shifts in evapotranspiration and heat fluxes, it further modifies microclimate and near-surface hydrological processes. In this study, we investigate the impacts of vegetation acclimation to climate change on micro-topographic hydrologic variability. The ability to accurately predict these impacts requires the simultaneous considerations of biochemical, ecophysiological and hydrological processes. A multilayer canopy-root-soil system model coupled with a conjunctive surface-subsurface flow model is used to capture the acclimatory responses and analyze the changes in dynamics of structure and connectivity of micro-topographic storage and in magnitudes of runoff. The study is performed using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) topographic data in the Birds Point-New Madrid floodway in Missouri, U.S.A. The result indicates that both climate change and its associated vegetation acclimation play critical roles in altering the micro-topographic hydrological responses.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

2013-12-01

Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W.; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J. Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. PMID:25268907

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Prototype development of user specific climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela

2017-04-01

Systematic consultations in the last years with representatives from sectors particularly affected by climate change have helped the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) to identify the most pressing needs of stakeholders from public and private sectors. Besides the development of innovative climate service products and methods, areas are also identified, for which intensive research activities have to be initiated. An example is the demand of decision makers for high-resolution climate change information needed at regional to local levels for their activities towards climate change adaptation. For questions concerning adaptation to climate change, no standard solutions can be provided. Different from mitigation measures, adaptation measures must be framed in accordance with the specific circumstances prevailing in the local situation. Here, individual solutions, which satisfy the individual requirements and needs, are necessary. They have to be developed in close co-operation with the customers and users. For example, the implications of climate change on strategic and operative decisions, e.g. in enterprises and urban planning, are becoming increasingly important. Therefore, high-quality consultancy for businesses and public administration is needed, in order to support decision makers in identifying associated risks and opportunities. For the development of prototype products, GERICS has framed a general methodological approach, including the idea generation, the iterative development, and the prototype testing in co-development with the user. High process transparency and high product quality are prerequisite for the success of a product. The co-development process ensures the best possible communication of user tailored climate change information for different target groups.

Soil Carbon in the Time of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amundson, R.

2017-12-01

The Earth is in the midst of human induced climate change driven by the emission of greenhouse gases largely through fossil fuels and land conversion. Drastically and rapidly reducing the net emissions are critical to avoid societally disruptive climate changes by the end of the Century. In the midst of this change are soils, that have a vast store of C and for a given change in conditions, can either rapidly add or remove C from the atmosphere. Mainstream soil and agricultural science has focused on the former for nearly two decades, conducting research and estimates of the potential global C sequestration potential of soils due to changed land management. This has culminated with the French 4 per mille initiative. While it is possible that in some countries, at some times, economic or political forces may drive farming practices one way or another, the estimated requirement that 30 to 70% of all farms on Earth adopt the best practices needed to achieve this goal is simply unrealistic. In addition, it diverts attention and resources from much more viable alternatives, and is clouding the growing need for climate adaption strategies that soil and environmental science will need to provide. Soil C sequestration will never be a significant "bridge" to C-free energy during the next few decades, which is the time frame of critical importance. Most likely, soil will be part of the CO2 sources. Few agricultural sequestration studies explicitly consider the positive feedback between soil C and temperature, and on-going loss of soil C to the atmosphere. Truly comprehensive studies of the combined management vs. climate feedback effects on soil C are few, but tend to conclude that even managed soils will continue to be a net source of CO2 this century. Only by reducing fossil fuel C emissions will we successfully, and in a time frame required by the Earth's climate system, contend with the greenhouse gas issue. Better soil C management is unlikely to slow or hold off climate change, but better adapting soils (through sound practices) to these changes may help us better contend with the negative effects of the looming change.

Quantifying the consequences of changing hydroclimatic extremes on protection levels for the Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Hegnauer, Mark; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Lammersen, Rita; van den Boogaard, Henk; Beersma, Jules

2017-04-01

The Dutch method for quantifying the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of discharge extremes in the Rhine basin and the potential influence of climate change hereon are presented. In the Netherlands flood protection design requires estimates of discharge extremes for return periods of 1000 up to 100,000 years. Observed discharge records are too short to derive such extreme return discharges, therefore extreme value assessment is based on very long synthetic discharge time-series generated with the Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE). The GRADE instrument consists of (1) a stochastic weather generator based on time series resampling of historical f rainfall and temperature and (2) a hydrological model optimized following the GLUE methodology and (3) a hydrodynamic model to simulate the propagation of flood waves based on the generated hydrological time-series. To assess the potential influence of climate change, the four KNMI'14 climate scenarios are applied. These four scenarios represent a large part of the uncertainty provided by the GCMs used for the IPCC 5th assessment report (the CMIP5 GCM simulations under different climate forcings) and are for this purpose tailored to the Rhine and Meuse river basins. To derive the probability distributions of extreme discharges under climate change the historical synthetic rainfall and temperature series simulated with the weather generator are transformed to the future following the KNMI'14 scenarios. For this transformation the Advanced Delta Change method, which allows that the changes in the extremes differ from those in the means, is used. Subsequently the hydrological model is forced with the historical and future (i.e. transformed) synthetic time-series after which the propagation of the flood waves is simulated with the hydrodynamic model to obtain the extreme discharge statistics both for current and future climate conditions. The study shows that both for 2050 and 2085 increases in discharge extremes for the river Rhine at Lobith are projected by all four KNMI'14 climate scenarios. This poses increased requirements for flood protection design in order to prepare for changing climate conditions.

Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).

PubMed

Jude, S R; Drew, G H; Pollard, S J T; Rocks, S A; Jenkinson, K; Lamb, R

2017-01-01

There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constraints to species' elevational range shifts as climate changes.

PubMed

Forero-Medina, German; Joppa, Lucas; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-02-01

Predicting whether the ranges of tropical species will shift to higher elevations in response to climate change requires models that incorporate data on topography and land use. We incorporated temperature gradients and land-cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. We tested four possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain: movement upslope through and to land cover suitable for the species; movement upslope to land-cover types that will not sustain survival and reproduction; movement upslope to areas that previously were outside the species' range; and movement upslope to cooler areas within the current range. Areas in the final scenario will become isolated as climate continues to change. In our scenarios more than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of seven species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species' movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Firn, Jennifer; Maggini, Ramona; Chadès, Iadine; Nicol, Sam; Walters, Belinda; Reeson, Andy; Martin, Tara G; Possingham, Hugh P; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Ponce-Reyes, Rocio; Carwardine, Josie

2015-11-01

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing climate change impacts on wetlands in a flow regulated catchment: A case study in the Macquarie Marshes, Australia.

PubMed

Fu, Baihua; Pollino, Carmel A; Cuddy, Susan M; Andrews, Felix

2015-07-01

Globally wetlands are increasingly under threat due to changes in water regimes as a result of river regulation and climate change. We developed the Exploring CLimAte Impacts on Management (EXCLAIM) decision support system (DSS), which simulates flow-driven habitat condition for 16 vegetation species, 13 waterbird species and 4 fish groups in the Macquarie catchment, Australia. The EXCLAIM DSS estimates impacts to habitat condition, considering scenarios of climate change and water management. The model framework underlying the DSS is a probabilistic Bayesian network, and this approach was chosen to explicitly represent uncertainties in climate change scenarios and predicted ecological outcomes. The results suggest that the scenario with no climate change and no water resource development (i.e. flow condition without dams, weirs or water license entitlements, often regarded as a surrogate for 'natural' flow) consistently has the most beneficial outcomes for vegetation, waterbird and native fish. The 2030 dry climate change scenario delivers the poorest ecological outcomes overall, whereas the 2030 wet climate change scenario has beneficial outcomes for waterbird breeding, but delivers poor outcomes for river red gum and black box woodlands, and fish that prefer river channels as habitats. A formal evaluation of the waterbird breeding model showed that higher numbers of observed nest counts are typically associated with higher modelled average breeding habitat conditions. The EXCLAIM DSS provides a generic framework to link hydrology and ecological habitats for a large number of species, based on best available knowledge of their flood requirements. It is a starting point towards developing an integrated tool for assessing climate change impacts on wetland ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

Web Tools Streamline Climate Preparedness and Resilience Planning and Implementation for Water Resources Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Friedman, D.; Schechter, J.; Foley, P.; Mueller, C.; Baker, B.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.

2016-12-01

Observed and projected impacts of climate change are pronounced on the hydrologic cycle because of the sensitivity of hydroclimatic variables to changes in temperature. Well-documented climate change impacts to the hydrologic cycle include increases in extreme heat conditions, coastal flooding, heavy precipitation, and drought frequency and magnitude, all of which can combine in surprising ways to pose regionally varying threats to public health and safety, ecosystem functions, and the economy. Climate preparedness and resilience activities are therefore necessary for water infrastructure which provides flood risk reduction, navigation, water supply, ecosystem restoration, and hydropower services. Because this water infrastructure entails long lifetimes, up to or beyond 100 years, and significant public investment, accurate and timely information about climate impacts over both the near-and far-term is required to plan and implement climate preparedness and resilience measures. Engineers are natural translators of science into actionable information to support this type of decision-making, because they understand both the important physical processes and the processes, laws, standards, and criteria required for the planning and design of public infrastructure. Though engineers are capable of the data management activities needed to ingest, transform, and prepare climate information for use in these decisions, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has chosen to emphasize analysis of information over data management. In doing so, the USACE is developing and using web tools with visualization capabilities to streamline climate preparedness and resilience planning and implementation while ensuring repeatable analytical results nationally. Examples discussed here include calculation of sea level change, including a comparison of mean sea level and other tidal statistics against scenarios of change; detection of abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in observed hydrologic data; and evaluations of projected flow frequency and duration that help to characterize future conditions and facilitate comparisons to observed conditions.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trainor, Sarah F.; Calef, Monika; Natcher, David; Chapin, F. Stuart; McGuire, A. David; Huntington, Orville; Duffy, Paul A.; Rupp, T. Scott; DeWilde, La'Ona; Kwart, Mary; Fresco, Nancy; Lovecraft, Amy Lauren

2009-01-01

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.

Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

PubMed

Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

2015-11-13

Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

30 CFR 250.803 - Additional production system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pressure vessels at any time when there is a change in operating pressures that requires new settings for... significant change in operating pressures. The most recent pressure-recorder charts used to determine... subfreezing climates, the lessee shall furnish evidence to the District Manager that the firefighting system...

30 CFR 250.803 - Additional production system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pressure vessels at any time when there is a change in operating pressures that requires new settings for... significant change in operating pressures. The most recent pressure-recorder charts used to determine... subfreezing climates, the lessee shall furnish evidence to the District Manager that the firefighting system...

30 CFR 250.803 - Additional production system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pressure vessels at any time when there is a change in operating pressures that requires new settings for... significant change in operating pressures. The most recent pressure-recorder charts used to determine... subfreezing climates, the lessee shall furnish evidence to the District Manager that the firefighting system...

Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45 % of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10 % of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.