CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

PubMed

Shanahan, Timothy M; Hughen, Konrad A; McKay, Nicholas P; Overpeck, Jonathan T; Scholz, Christopher A; Gosling, William D; Miller, Charlotte S; Peck, John A; King, John W; Heil, Clifford W

2016-07-18

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, Timothy M.; Hughen, Konrad A.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Gosling, William D.; Miller, Charlotte S.; Peck, John A.; King, John W.; Heil, Clifford W.

2016-07-01

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

PubMed Central

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

Satellite Instrument Calibration for Measuring Global Climate Change. Report of a Workshop at the University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center, College Park, MD. , November 12-14, 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ohring, G.; Wielicki, B.; Spencer, R.; Emery, B.; Datla, R.

2004-01-01

Measuring the small changes associated with long-term global climate change from space is a daunting task. To address these problems and recommend directions for improvements in satellite instrument calibration some 75 scientists, including researchers who develop and analyze long-term data sets from satellites, experts in the field of satellite instrument calibration, and physicists working on state of the art calibration sources and standards met November 12 - 14, 2002 and discussed the issues. The workshop defined the absolute accuracies and long-term stabilities of global climate data sets that are needed to detect expected trends, translated these data set accuracies and stabilities to required satellite instrument accuracies and stabilities, and evaluated the ability of current observing systems to meet these requirements. The workshop's recommendations include a set of basic axioms or overarching principles that must guide high quality climate observations in general, and a roadmap for improving satellite instrument characterization, calibration, inter-calibration, and associated activities to meet the challenge of measuring global climate change. It is also recommended that a follow-up workshop be conducted to discuss implementation of the roadmap developed at this workshop.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Stability in a changing world - palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years.

PubMed

Olivares, Ingrid; Svenning, Jens-Christian; van Bodegom, Peter M; Valencia, Renato; Balslev, Henrik

2017-03-01

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production.

PubMed

Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T; Reich, Peter B; He, Jin-Sheng

2018-04-17

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faulk, Richard O.

Measures from Sarbanes-Oxley to climate change legislation will pervasively transform the manner in which American businesses relate to shareholders and consumers. Capping a month of extraordinary changes, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners adopted a rule that mandates broad disclosures by insurance companies regarding the impact of climate change on their financial stability - thereby enlisting the insurance industry as a ''partner'' in the enforcement of global and national climate change policies. (author)

Agro-ecological class stability decreases in response to climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change will impact bioclimatic drivers that regulate the geospatial distribution of dryland agro-ecological classes (AECs). Characterizing the geospatial relationship between present AECs and their bioclimatic controls will provide insights into potential future shifts in AECs as climate cha...

Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change

PubMed Central

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Matthews, H. Damon; Weaver, Andrew J.

2009-01-01

Avoiding “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for “dangerous anthropogenic interference,” taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 °C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 °C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, −220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:19706489

Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change.

PubMed

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Matthews, H Damon; Weaver, Andrew J

2009-09-22

Avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for "dangerous anthropogenic interference," taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 degrees C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, -220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions.

Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

Propulsion Laboratory Dr. Diane Evans Jet Propulsion Laboratory CAPT Tim Gallaudet US Navy Task Force on Climate Change Mr. David Goldwyn State...Ashley Moran Strauss Center, University of Texas, Austin DOD’s (Minerva) Climate Change and African Political Stability Project CAPT Timothy ... Gallaudet Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy Navy’s Climate Change Task Force Dr. Sherri Goodman, Dr. Ralph Espach and Mr. Peter MacKenzie CNA

The U.S. climate change action plan: Challenges and prospects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darmstadter, J.

1995-07-01

In 1992, the United States and 154 other countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international accord outlining measures for dealing with the threat of global warming. The following year, the Clinton administration released its Climate Change Action Plan for meeting the convention`s goal of stabilizing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Evaluation of the plan`s prospects for success must necessarily be speculative at this point, but already several of the assumptions on which the plan is predicated appear questionable. Moreover, even if the emissions stabilization goalmore » is met, the problem of global warming will persist. Therefore, the greatest contribution of the plan might be to raise consciousness about the need for sustained measures to address climate change and its attendant socioeconomic consequences.« less

Arctic cities and climate change: climate-induced changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Streletskiy, Dmitry; Swales, Timothy

2014-05-01

Planned socio-economic development during the Soviet period promoted migration into the Arctic and work force consolidation in urbanized settlements to support mineral resources extraction and transportation industries. These policies have resulted in very high level of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic population remains predominantly urban. In five Russian Administrative regions underlined by permafrost and bordering the Arctic Ocean 66 to 82% (depending on region) of the total population is living in Soviet-era urban communities. The political, economic and demographic changes in the Russian Arctic over the last 20 years are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. The majority of structures in the Russian Arctic are built according to the passive principle, which promotes equilibrium between the permafrost thermal regime and infrastructure foundations. This presentation is focused on quantitative assessment of potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to ongoing and future climatic changes using permafrost - geotechnical model forced by GCM-projected climate. To address the uncertainties in GCM projections we have utilized results from 6 models participated in most recent IPCC model inter-comparison project. The analysis was conducted for entire extent of Russian permafrost-affected area and on several representative urban communities. Our results demonstrate that significant observed reduction in urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian Arctic can be attributed to climatic changes and that projected future climatic changes will further negatively affect communities on permafrost. However, the uncertainties in magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of projected climate change produced by individual GCMs translate to substantial variability of the future state of infrastructure built on permafrost.

Climate variability decreases species richness and community stability in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Zhang, Yunhai; Loreau, Michel; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Junbang; Pan, Qingmin; Bai, Yongfei; Han, Xingguo

2018-06-26

Climate change involves modifications in both the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation. According to global warming projections, both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, thereby increasing climate variability. The previous studies have reported that climate warming tends to decrease biodiversity and the temporal stability of community primary productivity (i.e., community stability), but the effects of the variability of temperature and precipitation on biodiversity, community stability, and their relationship have not been clearly explored. We used a long-term (from 1982 to 2014) field data set from a temperate grassland in northern China to explore the effects of the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation on species richness, community stability, and their relationship. Results showed that species richness promoted community stability through increases in asynchronous dynamics across species (i.e., species asynchrony). Both species richness and species asynchrony were positively associated with the residuals of community stability after controlling for its dependence on the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation. Furthermore, the variability of mean temperature reduced species richness, while the variability of total precipitation decreased species asynchrony and community stability. Overall, the present study revealed that species richness and species asynchrony promoted community stability, but increased climate variability may erode these positive effects and thereby threaten community stability.

Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Daniela N.; Valdes, Paul J.; Holroyd, Patricia A.; Farnsworth, Alexander

2016-01-01

Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation. PMID:27655766

Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production

PubMed Central

Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J.; Reich, Peter B.

2018-01-01

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity. PMID:29666319

Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

2014-05-01

Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH4-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH4-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH4 leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1-2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m-2 stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2-3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH4 emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; ...

2018-02-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T. Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Mori, Akira S.; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Reich, Peter B.; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W.; Smith, Melinda D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F.; van der Putten, Wim H.; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-01

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

PubMed

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T; Mori, Akira S; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A; Polley, H Wayne; Reich, Peter B; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W; Smith, Melinda D; Thakur, Madhav P; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F; van der Putten, Wim H; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-22

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.

2009-12-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

2017-12-01

We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fengqing; Tierno de Figueroa, José Manuel; Lek, Sovan; Park, Young-Seuk

2015-06-01

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region—one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

PubMed Central

Li, Fengqing; Tierno de Figueroa, José Manuel; Lek, Sovan; Park, Young-Seuk

2015-01-01

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region—one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale. PMID:26081036

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Tierno de Figueroa, José Manuel; Lek, Sovan; Park, Young-Seuk

2015-06-17

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region--one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally.

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Implications for the dynamic health of a glacier from comparison of conventional and reference-surface balances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, W.D.; Cox, L.H.; Hock, R.; March, R.S.; Pettit, E.C.

2009-01-01

Conventional and reference-surface mass-balance data from Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers, Alaska, USA, are used to address the questions of how rapidly these glaciers are adjusting (or 'responding') to climate, whether their responses are stable, and whether the glaciers are likely to survive in today's climate. Instability means that a glacier will eventually vanish, or at least become greatly reduced in volume, if the climate stabilizes at its present state. A simple non-linear theory of response is presented for the analysis. The response of Gulkana Glacier is characterized by a timescale of several decades, but its stability and therefore its survival in today's climate are uncertain. Wolverine seems to be responding to climate more slowly, on the timescale of one to several centuries. Its stability is also uncertain, but a slower response time would make it more susceptible to climate changes.

Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes.

PubMed

Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

2013-12-01

For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.

Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

2013-01-01

Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

Climate Change and Poor Water Resource Management Will Have Serious Security Implications in the Balkan Peninsula

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-12

develop in the following order: Water Security, Rivers, Agreements, Population, Water Resource Management, Deforestation, History , Threats , and Climate...and political stability. To achieve peace , solutions can be developed through the use of international institutions, signing agreements...influences population, economy, energy, peace , and political stability. Achieveing peaceful solutions must come through the use of international

The future of the Amazon: new perspectives from climate, ecosystem and social sciences.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Roberts, J Timmons

2008-05-27

The potential loss or large-scale degradation of the tropical rainforests has become one of the iconic images of the impacts of twenty-first century environmental change and may be one of our century's most profound legacies. In the Amazon region, the direct threat of deforestation and degradation is now strongly intertwined with an indirect challenge we are just beginning to understand: the possibility of substantial regional drought driven by global climate change. The Amazon region hosts more than half of the world's remaining tropical forests, and some parts have among the greatest concentrations of biodiversity found anywhere on Earth. Overall, the region is estimated to host about a quarter of all global biodiversity. It acts as one of the major 'flywheels' of global climate, transpiring water and generating clouds, affecting atmospheric circulation across continents and hemispheres, and storing substantial reserves of biomass and soil carbon. Hence, the ongoing degradation of Amazonia is a threat to local climate stability and a contributor to the global atmospheric climate change crisis. Conversely, the stabilization of Amazonian deforestation and degradation would be an opportunity for local adaptation to climate change, as well as a potential global contributor towards mitigation of climate change. However, addressing deforestation in the Amazon raises substantial challenges in policy, governance, sustainability and economic science. This paper introduces a theme issue dedicated to a multidisciplinary analysis of these challenges.

Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century.

PubMed

Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Maxwell, Charles; Lucash, Melissa S; Scheller, Robert M; Laflower, Danelle M; Miller, Adam D; Tepley, Alan J; Epstein, Howard E; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Thompson, Jonathan R

2018-04-30

The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949-2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.

Climate Change Readiness Assessment and Planning for the Nation's Drinking Water and Wastewater Utilities

EPA Science Inventory

The performance and sustainability of the Nation’s urban water resources infrastructure may be adversely impacted by changes in global climate, population patterns, economic stability and other emerging issues. How does the Nation’s water industry view these impending challenges...

Linking slope stability and climate change: the Nordfjord region, western Norway, case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasskog, K.; Waldmann, N.; Ariztegui, D.; Simpson, G.; Støren, E.; Chapron, E.; Nesje, A.

2009-12-01

Valleys, lakes and fjords are spectacular features of the Norwegian landscape and their sedimentary record recall past climatic, environmental and glacio-isostatic changes since the late glacial. A high resolution multi-proxy study is being performed on three lakes in western Norway combining different geophysical methods and sediment coring with the aim of reconstructing paleoclimate and to investigate how the frequency of hazardous events in this area has changed through time. A very high resolution reflection seismic profiling revealed a series of mass-wasting deposits. These events, which have also been studied in radiocarbon-dated cores, suggest a changing impact of slope instability on lake sedimentation since the late glacial. A specially tailored physically-based mathematical model allowed a numerical simulation of one of these mass wasting events and related tsunami, which occurred during a devastating rock avalanche in 1936 killing 74 persons. The outcome has been further validated against historical, marine and terrestrial information, providing a model that can be applied to comparable basins at various temporal and geographical scales. Detailed sedimentological and geochemical studies of selected cores allows characterizing the sedimentary record and to disentangle each mass wasting event. This combination of seismic, sedimentary and geophysical data permits to extend the record of mass wasting events beyond historical times. The geophysical and coring data retrieved from these lakes is a unique trace of paleo-slope stability generated by isostatic rebound and climate change, thus providing a continuous archive of slope stability beyond the historical record. The results of this study provide valuable information about the impact of climate change on slope stability and source-to-sink processes.

Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

2017-04-01

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate change impacts on global food security.

PubMed

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Genetic Resources of Energy Crops: Biological Systems to Combat Climate Change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biological systems are expected to contribute to renewable energy production, help stabilize rising levels of green house gases (GHG), and mitigate the risk of global climate change (GCC). Bioenergy crop plants that function as solar energy collectors and thermo-chemical energy storage systems are t...

Central Asian sand seas climate change as inferred from OSL dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maman, Shimrit; Tsoar, Haim; Blumberg, Dan; Porat, Naomi

2014-05-01

Luminescence dating techniques have become more accessible, widespread, more accurate and support studies of climate change. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is used to determine the time elapsed since quartz grains were last exposed to sunlight, before they were buried and the dune stabilized. Many sand seas have been dated extensively by luminescence, e.g., the Kalahari, Namib the Australian linear dunes and the northwestern Negev dune field, Israel. However, no ages were published so far from the central Asian sand seas. The lack of dune stratigraphy and numerical ages precluded any reliable assessment of the paleoclimatic significance of dunes in central Asia. Central Asian Sand seas (ergs) have accumulated in the Turan basin, north-west of the Hindu Kush range, and span from south Turkmenistan to the Syr-Darya River in Kazakhstan. These ergs are dissected by the Amu-Darya River; to its north lies the Kyzylkum (red sands) and to its south lies the Karakum (black sands). Combined, they form one of the largest sand seas in the world. This area is understudied, and little information has been published regarding the sands stabilization processes and deposition ages. In this study, OSL ages for the Karakum and Kyzylkum sands are presented and analysis of the implications of these results is provided. Optical dates obtained in this study are used to study the effects climatic changes had on the mobility and stability of the central Asian sand seas. Optically stimulated luminescence ages derived from the upper meter of the interdune of 14 exposed sections from both ergs, indicate extensive sand and dune stabilization during the mid-Holocene. This stabilization is understood to reflect a transition to a warmer, wetter, and less windy climate that generally persisted until today. The OSL ages, coupled with a compilation of regional paleoclimatic data, corroborate and reinforce the previously proposed Mid-Holocene Liavliakan phase, known to reflect a warmer, wetter, and less windy climate that persists until today and resulted in dune stabilization around the Mid-Holocene. This study, solidifies our results regarding the Kyzylkum and Karakum sand seas dynamics, ages, and emphasizes the importance of regional climatic control on aeolian activity.

Drought Tolerance during Reproductive Development is Important for Increasing wheat yield Potential under Climate change in Europe.

PubMed

Senapati, Nimai; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Paul, Matthew J; Semenov, Mikhail A

2018-06-12

Drought stress during reproductive development could drastically reduce grain number and wheat yield, but quantitative evaluation of such effect is unknown under climate change. The objectives of this study were to a) evaluate potential yield benefits of drought tolerance during reproductive development for wheat ideotypes under climate change in Europe, and b) identify potential cultivar parameters for improvement. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimise drought tolerant (DT) and drought sensitive (DS) wheat ideotypes under future 2050 climate scenario at 13 contrasting sites, representing major wheat growing regions in Europe. Averaged over the sites, DT ideotypes achieved 13.4% greater yield compared to DS, with the double yield stability for DT. However, the performances of the ideotypes were site dependent. Mean yield of DT was 28-37% greater compared to DS in southern Europe. In contrast, no yield difference (≤ 1%) between ideotypes was found in north-western Europe. An intermediate yield benefit of 10-23% was found due to drought tolerance in central and eastern Europe. We conclude that tolerance to drought stress during reproductive development is important for high yield potentials and greater yield stability of wheat under climate change in Europe.

Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

PubMed

Alvioli, Massimiliano; Melillo, Massimo; Guzzetti, Fausto; Rossi, Mauro; Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia

2018-07-15

The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term exposure to elevated CO 2 enhances plant community stability by suppressing dominant plant species in a mixed-grass prairie

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zelikova, Tamara Jane; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Williams, David G.

Climate controls vegetation distribution across the globe, and some vegetation types are more vulnerable to climate change, whereas others are more resistant. Because resistance and resilience can influence ecosystem stability and determine how communities and ecosystems respond to climate change, we need to evaluate the potential for resistance as we predict future ecosystem function. In a mixed-grass prairie in the northern Great Plains, in this study we used a large field experiment to test the effects of elevated CO 2, warming, and summer irrigation on plant community structure and productivity, linking changes in both to stability in plant community compositionmore » and biomass production. We show that the independent effects of CO 2 and warming on community composition and productivity depend on interannual variation in precipitation and that the effects of elevated CO 2 are not limited to water saving because they differ from those of irrigation. We also show that production in this mixed-grass prairie ecosystem is not only relatively resistant to interannual variation in precipitation, but also rendered more stable under elevated CO 2 conditions. This increase in production stability is the result of altered community dominance patterns: Community evenness increases as dominant species decrease in biomass under elevated CO 2. In many grasslands that serve as rangelands, the economic value of the ecosystem is largely dependent on plant community composition and the relative abundance of key forage species. Finally, our results have implications for how we manage native grasslands in the face of changing climate.« less

Long-term exposure to elevated CO 2 enhances plant community stability by suppressing dominant plant species in a mixed-grass prairie

DOE PAGES

Zelikova, Tamara Jane; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Williams, David G.; ...

2014-10-13

Climate controls vegetation distribution across the globe, and some vegetation types are more vulnerable to climate change, whereas others are more resistant. Because resistance and resilience can influence ecosystem stability and determine how communities and ecosystems respond to climate change, we need to evaluate the potential for resistance as we predict future ecosystem function. In a mixed-grass prairie in the northern Great Plains, in this study we used a large field experiment to test the effects of elevated CO 2, warming, and summer irrigation on plant community structure and productivity, linking changes in both to stability in plant community compositionmore » and biomass production. We show that the independent effects of CO 2 and warming on community composition and productivity depend on interannual variation in precipitation and that the effects of elevated CO 2 are not limited to water saving because they differ from those of irrigation. We also show that production in this mixed-grass prairie ecosystem is not only relatively resistant to interannual variation in precipitation, but also rendered more stable under elevated CO 2 conditions. This increase in production stability is the result of altered community dominance patterns: Community evenness increases as dominant species decrease in biomass under elevated CO 2. In many grasslands that serve as rangelands, the economic value of the ecosystem is largely dependent on plant community composition and the relative abundance of key forage species. Finally, our results have implications for how we manage native grasslands in the face of changing climate.« less

Effects of climate-change induced vegetation die-off on soil biodiversity and functioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curiel Yuste, Jorge; Garcia Angulo, Daniel; Barba, Josep; Poyatos, Rafael

2017-04-01

Climate change-induced vegetation die-off is nowadays a widespread phenomenon responsible for limiting the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to provide essential services worldwide. Less is known, however, about how vegetation die-off relates with changes in the biodiversity and ecology of the soil compartment, which accounts for many of the vital ecosystem functions such as providing essential nutrients for plant growth (nitrogen, N; or phosphorous, P), or long-term carbon (C) sequestration. The death of the vegetation alters soil abiotic (microclimate) conditions and limits the supply of the energy (carbohydrates specially) demanded by the soil biological communities. These abiotic and biotic changes triggers a cascade of causal-effect processes that may result in irreversible losses in soil biodiversity and in the stability of the trophic webs that sustain soil functions such as N fixation, mineralization of essential nutrients or C stabilization. However, to date, information on the potential impacts of climate-change induced vegetation die-off over soil biodiversity and functioning is fragmented (e.g. case-studies) and not very conclusive. We here want to summarize the state of the knowledge on all potential effects of climate-change induced vegetation die-off over soil biodiversity and soil functioning. Additionally, we also discuss the functional resilience of soils to climate-change vegetation die-off and how management practices could improve the resilience and the sustainability of the soil functioning.

The moon as a radiometric reference source for on-orbit sensor stability calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, T.C.

2009-01-01

The wealth of data generated by the world's Earth-observing satellites, now spanning decades, allows the construction of long-term climate records. A key consideration for detecting climate trends is precise quantification of temporal changes in sensor calibration on-orbit. For radiometer instruments in the solar reflectance wavelength range (near-UV to shortwave-IR), the Moon can be viewed as a solar diffuser with exceptional stability properties. A model for the lunar spectral irradiance that predicts the geometric variations in the Moon's brightness with ???1% precision has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey in Flagstaff, AZ. Lunar model results corresponding to a series of Moon observations taken by an instrument can be used to stabilize sensor calibration with sub-percent per year precision, as demonstrated by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). The inherent stability of the Moon and the operational model to utilize the lunar irradiance quantity provide the Moon as a reference source for monitoring radiometric calibration in orbit. This represents an important capability for detecting terrestrial climate change from space-based radiometric measurements.

A primer on the geological occurrence of gas hydrate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kvenvolden, K.A.

1998-01-01

This paper is part of the special publication Gas hydrates: relevance to world margin stability and climatic change (eds J.P. Henriet and J. Mienert).Natural gas hydrates occur world-wide in polar regions, usually associated with onshore and offshore permafrost, and in sediment of outer continental and insular margins. The total amount of methane in gas hydrates probably exceeds 1019 g of methane carbon. Three aspects of gas hydrates are important: their fossil fuel resource potential; their role as a submarine geohazard; and their effects on global climate change. Because gas hydrates represent a large amount of methane within 2000 m of the Earth's surface, they are considered to be an unconventional, unproven source of fossil fuel. Because gas hydrates are metastable, changes of pressure and temperature affect their stability. Destabilized gas hydrates beneath the sea floor lead to geological hazards such as submarine slumps and slides, examples of which are found world-wide. Destabilized gas hydrates may also affect climate through the release of methane, a 'greenhouse' gas, which may enhance global warming and be a factor in global climate change.

AEERL (AIR AND ENERGY ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY) RESEARCH PLAN ON THE GLOBAL CLIMATE EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT AND STABILIZATION PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory (AEERL) research plan for work in the global climate area. The plan, written for discussion with senior scientists and program managers at EPA's Global Climate Change Re...

Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

PubMed

Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

2018-09-15

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

2016-01-01

Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

Attenuating initial beliefs: increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values.

PubMed

van Prooijen, Anne-Marie; Sparks, Paul

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self-affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

PubMed Central

Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

2015-01-01

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. PMID:26658608

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

PubMed Central

Hof, Anouschka R.; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

2012-01-01

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. PMID:23285098

Forest Resilience, Biodiversity, and Climate Change

Treesearch

I. Thompson; B. Mackey; S. McNulty; A. Mosseler

2009-01-01

This paper reviews the concepts of ecosystem resilience, resistance, and stability in forests and their relationship to biodiversity, with particular reference to climate change. The report is a direct response to a request by the ninth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the CBD, in decision IX/51, to explore the links between biodiversity, forest ecosystem...

Gaseous mercury fluxes in peatlands and the potential influence of climate change

Treesearch

Kristine M. Haynes; Evan S. Kane; Lynette Potvin; Erik A. Lilleskov; Randall K. Kolka; Carl P.J. Mitchell

2017-01-01

Climate change has the potential to significantly impact the stability of large stocks of mercury (Hg) stored in peatland systems due to increasing temperatures, altered water table regimes and subsequent shifts in vascular plant communities. However, the Hg exchange dynamics between the atmosphere and peatlands are not well understood. At the PEATcosm Mesocosm...

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management.

PubMed

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-11-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Quality Broadband and Narrowband Solar Reflected Radiance Calibration Between Sensors in Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.; Young, David F.; Loeb, Norman G.; Garber, Donald P.; MacDonnell, David G.

2008-01-01

vAs the potential impacts of global climate change become more clear [1], the need to determine the accuracy of climate prediction over decade-to-century time scales has become an urgent and critical challenge. The most critical tests of climate model predictions will occur using observations of decadal changes in climate forcing, response, and feedback variables. Many of these key climate variables are observed by remotely sensing the global distribution of reflected solar spectral and broadband radiance. These "reflected solar" variables include aerosols, clouds, radiative fluxes, snow, ice, vegetation, ocean color, and land cover. Achieving sufficient satellite instrument accuracy, stability, and overlap to rigorously observe decadal change signals has proven very difficult in most cases and has not yet been achieved in others [2]. One of the earliest efforts to make climate quality observations was for Earth Radiation Budget: Nimbus 6/7 in the late 1970s, ERBE in the 1980s/90s, and CERES in 2000s are examples of the most complete global records. The recent CERES data products have carried out the most extensive intercomparisons because if the need to merge data from up to 11 instruments (CERES, MODIS, geostationary imagers) on 7 spacecraft (Terra, Aqua, and 5 geostationary) for any given month. In order to achieve climate calibration for cloud feedbacks, the radiative effect of clear-sky, all-sky, and cloud radiative effect must all be made with very high stability and accuracy. For shortwave solar reflected flux, even the 1% CERES broadband absolute accuracy (1-sigma confidence bound) is not sufficient to allow gaps in the radiation record for decadal climate change. Typical absolute accuracy for the best narrowband sensors like SeaWiFS, MISR, and MODIS range from 2 to 4% (1-sigma). IPCC greenhouse gas radiative forcing is approx. 0.6 W/sq m per decade or 0.6% of the global mean shortwave reflected flux, so that a 50% cloud feedback would change the global reflected flux by approx. 0.3 W/sq m or 0.3% per decade in broadband SW calibration change. Recent results comparing CERES reflected flux changes with MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS narrowband changes concluded that only SeaWiFS and CERES were approaching sufficient stability in calibration for decadal climate change [3]. Results using deep convective clouds in the optically thick limit as a stability target may prove very effective for improving past data sets like ISCCP. Results for intercalibration of geostationary imagers to CERES using an entire month of regional nearly coincident data demonstrates new approaches to constraining the calibration of current geostationary imagers. The new Decadal Survey Mission CLARREO is examining future approaches to a "NIST-in-Orbit" approach of very high absolute accuracy reference radiometers that cover the full solar and infrared spectrum at high spectral resolution but at low spatial resolution. Sampling studies have shown that a precessing CLARREO mission could calibrate other geo and leo reflected solar radiation and thermal infrared sensors.

Impact of groundwater flow on permafrost degradation and transportation infrastructure stability.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-02-01

A warming climate has been identified as unequivocal by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with greater and faster temperature increase demonstrated at : northern latitudes, and with an overall increase in precipitation. Analysis of field ...

Elevated CO2 and water addition enhance nitrogen turnover in grassland plants with implications for temporal stability.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Feike A; Carrillo, Yolima; Blumenthal, Dana M; Mueller, Kevin E; LeCain, Dan R; Morgan, Jack A; Zelikova, Tamara J; Williams, David G; Follett, Ronald F; Pendall, Elise

2018-05-01

Temporal variation in soil nitrogen (N) availability affects growth of grassland communities that differ in their use and reuse of N. In a 7-year-long climate change experiment in a semi-arid grassland, the temporal stability of plant biomass production varied with plant N turnover (reliance on externally acquired N relative to internally recycled N). Species with high N turnover were less stable in time compared to species with low N turnover. In contrast, N turnover at the community level was positively associated with asynchrony in biomass production, which in turn increased community temporal stability. Elevated CO 2 and summer irrigation, but not warming, enhanced community N turnover and stability, possibly because treatments promoted greater abundance of species with high N turnover. Our study highlights the importance of plant N turnover for determining the temporal stability of individual species and plant communities affected by climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Near coast sedimentary stratigraphy as a proxy for climatic instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLivenny, J.

2009-04-01

Several studies have indicated a link between climatic deterioration and dune stability (Wilson 2002, Issar 2003, Dawson et al 2004). The frequency and magnitude of storms have been cited as a key variable in the stability of large dune systems. For the stratigraphy of dune systems to act as a regional climatic proxy there must be a good regional relationship between known climatic events and regionally correlated stratigraphic changes. Dunnet Bay in Caithness, Northern Scotland was chosen as a study site to look at the relationship between dune stability and climatic change during the late Holocene in Northern Scotland. Dunnet Bay was chosen for its physical attributes which make it an excellent natural sediment trap. Tucked in between headlands which act as barriers to long-shore transport the predominant movement of sediment there is straight onshore, with only minor amounts being lost to the sea. The immediate back-dune stratigraphy, colloquially known as "links", provided evidence of peat formation and dune stability. Stratigraphy was mapped using traditional field techniques and ground penetrating radar. The cores consisted mostly of massive layers of sand interleaved with peat. Sand layers were dated with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and interpreted as reflecting high wind energy regimes transporting sand inland. Peat layers were C14 dated and taken as representing climatic stability. Stratigraphy was mapped using hand auguring, percussion coring, and open sections. Ground penetrating radar was also used to look at the continuity of key layers. OSL dating in two open sections showed dates obtained from the first section (1790 AD ±70, 53 BC ± 100, 300 BC ± 100, 400 BC ± 100) mapped to the top of the second section (1800 AD ± 100, 1500 BC ± 200, 2900 BC ± 300) which was consistent with stratigraphy increasing sediment thickness towards the centre of the bay. The results were consistent with acquired C14 dates from selected peat layers. Taken collectively the results are consistent with some known episodes of climatic instability which occurred during the mid Holocene with instability phases occurring in Dunnet from approximately 6300- 4250 yrs BP, associated with climatic deterioration between 6000 - 5,200 Yrs BP (Lamb 1995) and dune instability between 2560 - 3900 Yrs BP, associated with an abrupt change of climate (Anderson 1995) In addition to the luminescence dates, 31 luminescence profiling dates were acquired in order to look at the continuity of the age vs. depth profile. Luminescence profile dates are small samples that require less preparation prior to luminescence measurement than full luminescence dating. Although larger errors are associated with luminescence profiling, it offered means of identifying at lesser cost the possible occurrence of mixing between eroded layers. The stratigraphic chronology was compared to other local and regional dune studies and periods of climatic deterioration found in other proxies. The GISP2 ice core (Greenland Ice Sheet Project) was found to provide chemical proxies for North Atlantic storminess which partially explained our observed stratigraphy (O`brien et al 1995). It is concluded that changes in dune stability at a regional scale are also influenced by local variables, so that one should be careful when attempting to draw stratigraphy to climate change. Key References: Issar, A. (2003) Climate changes during the Holocene and their impact on hydrological systems. Published by the Cambridge University Press 2003. Wilson, P. (2002) Holocene coastal dune development on the South Erridale peninsula, Wester Ross, Scotland. Scottish Journal of Geology, 38, 1, 5-13. Dawson, S., smith, D., Jordan, J., and Dawson D. G. (2004) Late Holocene coastal sand movements in the outer Hebrides N. W. Scotland. Marine Geology 210, 281-306 O`Brien, S. M. Mayewski, P.A. Meeker, L. D., Meese, D. A., Twickler, M. S. & Whitlow, S. I. (1995) Complexity of the Holocene Climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core. Science 270, pp 1962-1964 Lamb, H. (1995) Climate, History and the Modern World. Published by Routledge ISBN 0415127343, 9780415127349 2nd ed. Anderson, D. E. (1995) An abrupt mid-Holocene decline of pinus sylvestris in Glen Torridon, north west Scotland: Implications for paleoclimatic change. School of Geography and the Environment Research papers, Oxford

Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.

2017-12-01

Water temperatures and stratification are important drivers for ecological and water quality processes within lake systems, and changes in these with increases in air temperature and changes to wind speeds may have significant ecological consequences. To properly manage these systems under changing climate, it is important to understand the effects of increasing air temperatures and wind speed changes in lakes of different depths and surface areas. In this study, we simulate three lakes that vary in depth and surface area to elucidate the effects of the observed increasing air temperatures and decreasing wind speeds on lake thermal variables (water temperature, stratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes) over a century (1911-2014). For all three lakes, simulations showed that epilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, the length of the stratified season increased due to earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn, stability increased, and longwave and sensible heat fluxes at the surface increased. Overall, lake depth influences the presence of stratification, Schmidt stability, and differences in surface heat flux, while lake surface area influences differences in hypolimnion temperature, hypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification onset and fall overturn dates. Larger surface area lakes have greater wind mixing due to increased surface momentum. Climate perturbations indicate that our larger study lakes have more variability in temperature and stratification variables than the smaller lakes, and this variability increases with larger wind speeds. For all study lakes, Pearson correlations and climate perturbation scenarios indicate that wind speed has a large effect on temperature and stratification variables, sometimes greater than changes in air temperature, and wind can act to either amplify or mitigate the effect of warmer air temperatures on lake thermal structure depending on the direction of local wind speed changes.

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

Historical factors shaped species diversity and composition of Salix in eastern Asia.

PubMed

Wang, Qinggang; Su, Xiangyan; Shrestha, Nawal; Liu, Yunpeng; Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Wang, Zhiheng

2017-02-08

Ambient energy, niche conservatism, historical climate stability and habitat heterogeneity hypothesis have been proposed to explain the broad-scale species diversity patterns and species compositions, while their relative importance have been controversial. Here, we assessed the relative contributions of contemporary climate, historical climate changes and habitat heterogeneity in shaping Salix species diversity and species composition in whole eastern Asia as well as mountains and lowlands using linear regressions and distance-based redundancy analyses, respectively. Salix diversity was negatively related with mean annual temperature. Habitat heterogeneity was more important than contemporary climate in shaping Salix diversity patterns, and their relative contributions were different in mountains and lowlands. In contrast, the species composition was strongly influenced by contemporary climate and historical climate change than habitat heterogeneity, and their relative contributions were nearly the same both in mountains and lowlands. Our findings supported niche conservatism and habitat heterogeneity hypotheses, but did not support ambient energy and historical climate stability hypotheses. The diversity pattern and species composition of Salix could not be well-explained by any single hypothesis tested, suggesting that other factors such as disturbance history and diversification rate may be also important in shaping the diversity pattern and composition of Salix species.

Historical factors shaped species diversity and composition of Salix in eastern Asia

PubMed Central

Wang, Qinggang; Su, Xiangyan; Shrestha, Nawal; Liu, Yunpeng; Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Wang, Zhiheng

2017-01-01

Ambient energy, niche conservatism, historical climate stability and habitat heterogeneity hypothesis have been proposed to explain the broad-scale species diversity patterns and species compositions, while their relative importance have been controversial. Here, we assessed the relative contributions of contemporary climate, historical climate changes and habitat heterogeneity in shaping Salix species diversity and species composition in whole eastern Asia as well as mountains and lowlands using linear regressions and distance-based redundancy analyses, respectively. Salix diversity was negatively related with mean annual temperature. Habitat heterogeneity was more important than contemporary climate in shaping Salix diversity patterns, and their relative contributions were different in mountains and lowlands. In contrast, the species composition was strongly influenced by contemporary climate and historical climate change than habitat heterogeneity, and their relative contributions were nearly the same both in mountains and lowlands. Our findings supported niche conservatism and habitat heterogeneity hypotheses, but did not support ambient energy and historical climate stability hypotheses. The diversity pattern and species composition of Salix could not be well-explained by any single hypothesis tested, suggesting that other factors such as disturbance history and diversification rate may be also important in shaping the diversity pattern and composition of Salix species. PMID:28176816

On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

PubMed

Hofmann, Matthias; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-12-08

One of the most important large-scale ocean current systems for Earth's climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we review its stability properties and present new model simulations to study the AMOC's hysteresis response to freshwater perturbations. We employ seven different versions of an Ocean General Circulation Model by using a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, which minimizes the problem of numerical diffusion. We find that a characteristic freshwater hysteresis also exists in the predominantly wind-driven, low-diffusion limit of the AMOC. However, the shape of the hysteresis changes, indicating that a convective instability rather than the advective Stommel feedback plays a dominant role. We show that model errors in the mean climate can make the hysteresis disappear, and we investigate how model innovations over the past two decades, like new parameterizations and mixing schemes, affect the AMOC stability. Finally, we discuss evidence that current climate models systematically overestimate the stability of the AMOC.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Dynamics of aggregate stability and soil organic C distribution as affected by climatic aggressiveness: a mesocosm approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, Sergio; Elio Agnelli, Alessandro; Costanza Andrenelli, Maria; Barbetti, Roberto; Castelli, Fabio; Costantini, Edoardo A. C.; Lagomarsino, Alessandra; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Tomozeiu, Rodica; Razzaghi, Somayyeh; Vignozzi, Nadia

2014-05-01

In the framework of a research project aimed at evaluating the adaptation scenarios of the Italian agriculture to the current climate change, a mesocosm experiment under controlled conditions was set up for studying the dynamics of soil aggregate stability and organic C in different size fractions. Three alluvial loamy soils (BOV - Typic Haplustalfs coarse-loamy; CAS - Typic Haplustalfs fine-loamy; MED - Typic Hapludalfs fine-loamy) along a climatic gradient (from dryer to moister pedoclimatic conditions) in the river Po valley (northern Italy), under crop rotation for animal husbandry from more than 40 years, were selected. The Ap horizons (0-30cm) were taken and placed in 9 climatic chambers under controlled temperature and rainfall. Each soil was subjected to three different climate scenarios in terms of erosivity index obtained by combining Modified Fournier and Bagnouls-Gaussen indexes: i) typical (TYP), the median year of each site related to the 1961-1990 reference period; ii) maximum aggressive year (MAX) observed in the same period, and iii) the simulated climate (SIM), obtained by projections of climate change precipitation and temperature for the period 2021-2050 as provided by the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. In the climatic chambers the year climate was reduced to six months. The soils were analyzed for particle size distribution, aggregate stability by wet and dry sieving, and organic C content at the beginning and at the end of the trial. The soils showed different behaviour in terms of aggregate stability and dynamics of organic C in the diverse size fractions. The soils significantly differed in terms of initial mean weight diameter (MWD) (CAS>MED>BOV). A general reduction of MWD in all sites was observed at the end of the experiment, with the increase of the smallest aggregate fractions (0.250-0.05 mm). In particular, BOV showed the maximum decrease of the aggregate stability and MED the lowest. C distribution in aggregate fractions significantly changed at the end of the trial, depending of soil types. In CAS and MED a decrease of C content was observed in fractions larger than 0.250 mm, while an accumulation occurred only in CAS microaggregates. BOV showed a singular pattern, with an increase of organic C in all fractions. In this site an improvement of aggregation, involving the coarser fractions, seems to have been favoured during the experiment. Overall, the imposed climate did not affect significantly these trends, except in CAS, where TYP and SIM climates showed an increase of macroaggregates and their C concentration. Soil pedoclimatic characteristics showed to be the main factors affecting C and aggregates dynamics in this mesocosm experiment.

Impacts of Seed Dispersal on Future Vegetation Structure under Changing Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Prinn, R. G.

2011-12-01

As the impacts between land cover change, future climates and ecosystems are expected to be substantial, there are growing needs for improving the capability of simulating the global vegetation structure and landscape as realistically as possible. Current DGVMs assume ubiquitous availability of seeds and do not consider any seed dispersal mechanisms in plant migration process, which may influence the assessment of impacts to the ecosystem that rely on the vegetation structure changes (i.e., change in albedo, runoff, and terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity). This study incorporates time-varying wind-driven seed dispersal (i.e., the SEED configuration) as a dynamic constraint to the migration process of natural vegetation in the Community Land Model (CLM)-DGVM. The SEED configuration is validated using a satellite-derived tree cover dataset. Then the configuration is applied to project future vegetation structures and their implications for carbon fluxes, albedo, and hydrology under two climate mitigation scenarios (No-policy vs. 450ppm CO2 stabilization) for the 21st century. Our results show that regional changes of vegetation structure under changing climates are expected to be significant. For example, Alaska and Siberia are expected to experience substantial shifts of forestry structure, characterized by expansion of needle-leaf boreal forest and shrinkage of C3 grass Arctic. A suggested vulnerability assessment shows that vegetation structures in Alaska, Greenland, Central America, southern South America, East Africa and East Asia are susceptible to changing climates, regardless of the two climate mitigation scenarios. Regions such as Greenland, Tibet, South Asia and Northern Australia, however, may substantially alleviate their risks of rapid change in vegetation structure, given a robust greenhouse gas stabilization target. Proliferation of boreal forests in the high latitudes is expected to amplify the warming trend (i.e., a positive feedback to climate), if no mitigation policy is implemented. In contrast, under the 450ppm scenario, vegetation structure may buffer the warming trend, which is a negative feedback to climate. Moreover, runoff changes due to vegetation shifts may offset or complement runoff changes under anthropogenic climate warming.

Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; K. Zhu; J.A. Westfall; C.M. Oswalt; A.W. D' Amato; B.F. Walters; H.E. Lintz

2013-01-01

Shifts in tree species ranges may occur due to global climate change, which in turn may be exacerbated by natural disturbance events. Within the context of global climate change, developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances may enable mitigation/adaptation of projected impacts. Using a forest inventory across the eastern U.S...

Climate in Earth history

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berger, W. H.; Crowell, J. C.

1982-01-01

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do no

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

PubMed

Myhre, G; Samset, B H; Hodnebrog, Ø; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Forster, P M; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Kirkevåg, A; Lamarque, J-F; Olivié, D; Richardson, T B; Shawki, D; Shindell, D; Shine, K P; Stjern, C W; Takemura, T; Voulgarakis, A

2018-05-15

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Stability Operations: Policy and Doctrine Awaiting Implementation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

periods move through offense and defense (or reverse ) sequentially while stability is presented throughout the rotation. This causes stability to...The author’s personal experience in Afghanistan and having studied the complex nature of stability operations suggests the reverse is true. June...climate change, Euro/EU collapse, a democratic or collapsed China, a reformed Iran, nuclear war or WMD/cyber-attack, solar geomagnetic storms, U.S

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Sea Surface Temperature for Climate Applications: A New Dataset from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchant, C. J.; Hulley, G. C.

2013-12-01

There are many datasets describing the evolution of global sea surface temperature (SST) over recent decades -- so why make another one? Answer: to provide observations of SST that have particular qualities relevant to climate applications: independence, accuracy and stability. This has been done within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initative (CCI) project on SST. Independence refers to the fact that the new SST CCI dataset is not derived from or tuned to in situ observations. This matters for climate because the in situ observing network used to assess marine climate change (1) was not designed to monitor small changes over decadal timescales, and (2) has evolved significantly in its technology and mix of types of observation, even during the past 40 years. The potential for significant artefacts in our picture of global ocean surface warming is clear. Only by having an independent record can we confirm (or refute) that the work done to remove biases/trend artefacts in in-situ datasets has been successful. Accuracy is the degree to which SSTs are unbiased. For climate applications, a common accuracy target is 0.1 K for all regions of the ocean. Stability is the degree to which the bias, if any, in a dataset is constant over time. Long-term instability introduces trend artefacts. To observe trends of the magnitude of 'global warming', SST datasets need to be stable to <5 mK/year. The SST CCI project has produced a satellite-based dataset that addresses these characteristics relevant to climate applications. Satellite radiances (brightness temperatures) have been harmonised exploiting periods of overlapping observations between sensors. Less well-characterised sensors have had their calibration tuned to that of better characterised sensors (at radiance level). Non-conventional retrieval methods (optimal estimation) have been employed to reduce regional biases to the 0.1 K level, a target violated in most satellite SST datasets. Models for quantifying uncertainty have been developed to attach uncertainty to SST across a range of space-time scales. The stability of the data has been validated.

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.

2009-04-01

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

Threat to the Planet: Dark and Bright Sides of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2008-12-01

. Earth's history reveals that climate is sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet's energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite the climate system's great inertia, climate changes are emerging above the 'noise' of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are 'in the pipeline'. There is a clear and present danger of the climate passing certain 'tipping points', climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks guarantee large relatively rapid changes with no additional climate forcing. The fact that we are close to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will minimize many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes, and fresh water shortages. Actions required to stabilize climate, including prompt phase-out of coal emissions, are defined well enough by our understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and fossil fuel reservoirs. These actions would also yield cleaner air and water, with ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and wildlife preservation. Yet the actions required to stabilize climate are not being pursued. Denial of climate change by the fossil fuel industry and reactionary governments has been replaced by 'greenwash'. The policies of even the 'greenest' nations are demonstrably impotent for the purpose of averting climate disasters. I conclude that inaction stems in large part from 'success' of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. The consequence is intergenerational inequity and injustice, affecting negatively the young and the unborn. The defense of prior generations, that they 'did not know', is no longer viable. Indeed, actions by fossil fuel interests that served to deceive the public about the dangers of human-made climate change raise questions of ethics and legal liabilities. Youth, at least those who are not too young or unborn, have recourse through democratic systems, but continued failure of the political process may cause increasing public protests.

Energy-balance climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

1980-01-01

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

Energy balance climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

1981-01-01

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-26

example, the EPA spent approximately $2 billion supporting development of a feasible flue gas desulfurization (FGD) device for electric utility use to...Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States committed to the objective of achieving “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in...the United States would convene a meeting of the world’s “major economies” that are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions. Held in September

Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses

PubMed Central

Adler, Peter B.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.; Guan, Qingfeng; Levine, Jonathan M.

2006-01-01

How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of “storage effect” theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity. PMID:16908862

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

PubMed

Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

2016-01-01

Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

Global food security under climate change

PubMed Central

Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

Estimation of landslides activities evolution due to land-use and climate change in a Pyrenean valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Bernardie, Séverine; Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Grandjean, Gilles; Thiery, Yannick

2016-04-01

Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated in areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous areas are among these vulnerable territories. Ecological systems are often at a fragile equilibrium, socio-economical activities are often climate-dependent and climate-driven natural hazards can be a major threat for human activities. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys to face global changes (climate, but also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary to be able to evaluate the evolution of the different threats. The present work shows a method to evaluate the influences of the evolution of both vegetation cover and climate on landslides activities over a whole valley until 2100, to propose adequate solutions for current and future forestry management. Firstly, the assessment of future land use is addressed through the construction of four prospective socio-economic scenarios up to 2050 and 2100, which are then spatially validated and modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, the climate change inputs of the project correspond to 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impact of land use and climate change is then addressed through the use of these scenarios into hazards computations. For that we use a large-scale slope stability assessment tool ALICE which combines a mechanical stability model (using finite slope analysis), a vegetation module which interfere with the first model, to take into account the effects of vegetation on the mechanical soil properties (cohesion and over-load), and an hydrogeological model. All these elements are interfaced within a GIS-based solution. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of global change on mountain societies. The whole chain is applied to a 100-km² Pyrenean Valley, for the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), as a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

The role of artificial atmospheric CO2 removal in stabilizing Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Tokarska, K.

2014-12-01

The current CO2 emission trend entails a risk that the 2°C target will be missed, potentially causing "dangerous" changes in Earth's climate system. This research explores the role of artificial atmospheric CO2 removal (also referred to as "negative emissions") in stabilizing Earth's climate after overshoot. We designed a range of plausible CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition from a fossil fuel driven economy to a zero-emission energy system, followed by a period of negative emissions. The scenarios differ in peak emissions rate and, accordingly, the amount of negative emissions, to reach the same cumulative emissions compatible with the 2°C temperature stabilization target. The climate system components' responses are computed using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that negative emissions are effective in reversing the global mean temperature and stabilizing it at a desired level (2°C above pre-industrial) after overshoot. Also, changes in the meridional overturning circulation and sea ice are reversible with the artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, sea level continues to rise and is not reversible for several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative emissions. For sea level to decline, atmospheric CO2 needs to be reduced to pre-industrial levels in our simulations. During the negative emission phase, outgassing of CO2 from terrestrial and marine carbon sinks offsets the artificial removal of atmospheric CO2, thereby reducing its effectiveness. On land, the largest CO2 outgassing occurs in the Tropics and is partially compensated by CO2 uptake at northern high latitudes. In the ocean, outgassing occurs mostly in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. The strongest outgassing occurs for pathways entailing greatest amounts of negative emissions, such that the efficiency of CO2 removal - here defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission - decreases with increasing amounts of negative emissions.

Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campiglio, Emanuele; Dafermos, Yannis; Monnin, Pierre; Ryan-Collins, Josh; Schotten, Guido; Tanaka, Misa

2018-06-01

The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years. This Perspective presents the key controversies and discusses potential research and policy avenues for the future. Developing a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the potential impact of climate change and the low-carbon transition on financial stability seems to be the first crucial challenge. These enhanced risk measures could then be incorporated in setting financial regulations and implementing the policies of central banks.

Goal orientations, motivational climate, and prosocial and antisocial behaviour in youth football: exploring their temporal stability and reciprocal relationships.

PubMed

Sage, Luke D; Kavussanu, Maria

2008-05-01

In this study, we examined the temporal stability and reciprocal relationships among task and ego orientation, task- and ego-involving climates, and prosocial and antisocial behaviour in youth football. Male (n = 156) and female (n = 24) footballers (mean age 14.1 years, s = 1.8) completed questionnaires towards the beginning and end of a regular season. Questionnaires measured goal orientation, perceived motivational climate, and frequency of prosocial and antisocial behaviours. Structural equation modelling indicated moderate covariance stability between the beginning and end of the season. Subsequent analyses revealed a significant decrease only in perceptions of task-involving climate. In the cross-lagged analyses, prosocial behaviour at the beginning of the season positively predicted task-involving climate at the end of the season. Antisocial behaviour at the beginning of the season positively predicted both ego orientation and ego-involving climate at the end of the season and a reciprocal relationship was revealed whereby ego orientation at the beginning of the season positively predicted antisocial behaviour at the end of the season. Task orientation at the beginning of the season negatively predicted ego-involving climate at the end of the season. All cross-lagged relationships were weak. This exploratory study offers limited support for bi-directional relationships between personal, environmental, and behavioural variables but provides useful insight into the covariance stability, change, and interrelationships between motivational and moral constructs over a competitive season.

On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Matthias; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-01-01

One of the most important large-scale ocean current systems for Earth's climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we review its stability properties and present new model simulations to study the AMOC's hysteresis response to freshwater perturbations. We employ seven different versions of an Ocean General Circulation Model by using a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, which minimizes the problem of numerical diffusion. We find that a characteristic freshwater hysteresis also exists in the predominantly wind-driven, low-diffusion limit of the AMOC. However, the shape of the hysteresis changes, indicating that a convective instability rather than the advective Stommel feedback plays a dominant role. We show that model errors in the mean climate can make the hysteresis disappear, and we investigate how model innovations over the past two decades, like new parameterizations and mixing schemes, affect the AMOC stability. Finally, we discuss evidence that current climate models systematically overestimate the stability of the AMOC. PMID:19897722

Aggregation and C dynamics along an elevation gradient in carbonate-containing grassland soils of the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Franco, Noelia; Wiesmeier, Martin; Kiese, Ralf; Dannenmann, Michael; Wolf, Benjamin; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

2017-04-01

C sequestration in mountainous grassland soils is regulated by physical, chemical and biological soil process. An improved knowledge of the relationship between these stabilization mechanisms is decisive to recommend the best management practices for climate change mitigation. In this regard, the identification of a successful indicator of soil structural improvement and C sequestration in mountainous grassland soils is necessary. Alpine and pre-alpine grassland soils in Bavaria represent a good example for mountainous grassland soils faced with climate change. We sampled grassland soils of the northern limestone alps in Bavaria along an elevation gradient from 550 to 1300 m above sea level. We analyzed C dynamics by a comparative analysis of the distribution of C according to aggregate size classes: large-macroaggregates (> 2000 µm), small-macroaggregates (250-2000 µm), microaggregates (63-250 µm), silt plus clay particles (<63 µm) and bulk soil. Our preliminary results showed higher C content and changed water-stable aggregate distribution in the high elevation sites compared to lower elevations. Magnesium carbonate seem to play an important role in stabilizing macroaggregates formed from fresh OM. In addition, the isolation of occluded microaggregates within macroaggregates will help us to improve our understanding on the effects of climate change on soil structure and on the sensitivity of different C stabilization mechanisms present in mountainous soils.

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

Emissions targets in cap-and-trade : choosing reduction goals compatible with global climate stabilization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

Among the major environmental threats facing the world today, climate change stands out as both the largest in scope and the most unique in character, in the sense that the atmosphere : truly does not recognize national boundaries when it comes to ca...

Effects of climate change and UV-B on materials.

PubMed

Andrady, Anthony L; Hamid, Halim S; Torikai, Ayako

2003-01-01

The outdoor service life of common plastic materials is limited by their susceptibility to solar ultraviolet radiation. Of the solar wavelengths the UV-B component is particularly efficient in bringing about photodamage in synthetic and naturally occurring materials. This is particularly true of plastics, rubber and wood used in the building and agricultural industries. Any depletion in the stratospheric ozone layer and resulting increase in the UV-B component of terrestrial sunlight will therefore tend to decrease the service life of these materials. The extent to which the service life is reduced is, however, difficult to estimate as it depends on several factors. These include the chemical nature of the material, the additives it contains, the type and the amount of light-stabilizers (or protective coatings) used, and the amount of solar exposure it receives. Concomitant climate change is likely to increase the ambient temperature and humidity in some of the same regions likely to receive increased UV-B radiation. These factors, particularly higher temperatures, are also well known to accelerate the rate of photodegradation of materials, and may therefore further limit the service life of materials in these regions. To reliably assess the damage to materials as a consequence of ozone layer depletion, the wavelength sensitivity of the degradation process, dose-response relationships for the material and the effectiveness of available stabilizers need to be quantified. The data needed for the purpose are not readily available at this time for most of the commonly used plastics or wood materials. Wavelength sensitivity of a number of common plastic materials and natural biopolymers are available and generally show the damage (per photon) to decrease exponentially with the wavelength. Despite the relatively higher fraction of UV-A in sunlight, the UV-B content is responsible for a significant part of light-induced damage of materials. The primary approach to mitigation relies on the effectiveness of the existing light stabilizers (such as hindered amine light stabilizers, HALS) used in plastics exposed to harsh solar UV conditions coupled with climate change factors. In developing advanced light-stabilizer technologies, more light-resistant grades of common plastics, or surface protection technologies for wood, the harsh weathering environment created by the simultaneous action of increased UV-B levels due to ozone depletion as well as the relevant climate change factors need to be taken into consideration. Recent literature includes several studies on synergism of HALS-based stabilizers, stabilizer effectiveness in the new m-polyolefins and elucidation of the mechanism of stabilization afforded by titania pigment in vinyl plastics.

The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; María López-Romero, Jose; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

2016-04-01

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared to the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range [-14%;+2%], with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. Reference: S. Jerez, I. Tobin, R. Vautard, J.P. Montávez, J.M. López-Romero, F. Thais, B. Bartok, O.B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, S. Kotlarski, E. van Meijgaard, C. Teichmann and M. Wild (2015). The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe. Nature Communications, 6, 10014, doi: 10.1038/ncomms10014.

Effects of local climate and hydrological conditions on the thermal regime of a reservoir at Tropic of Cancer, in southern China.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Qian, Xin; Han, Bo-Ping; Luo, Lian-Cong; Hamilton, David P

2012-05-15

Thermal regime is strongly associated with hydrodynamics in water, and it plays an important role in the dynamics of water quality and ecosystem succession of stratified reservoirs. Changes in both climate and hydrological conditions can modify thermal regimes. Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45'50″N; 113°46'52″E) is a large, stratified and deep reservoir in Guangdong Province, located at the Tropic of Cancer of southern China. The reservoir is a warm monomictic water body with a long period of summer stratification and a short period of mixing in winter. The vertical distribution of suspended particulate material and nutrients are influenced strongly by the thermal structure and the associated flow fields. The hypolimnion becomes anoxic in the stratified period, increasing the release of nutrients from the bottom sediments. Fifty-one years of climate and reservoir operational observations are used here to show the marked changes in local climate and reservoir operational schemes. The data show increasing air temperature and more violent oscillations in inflow volumes in the last decade, while the inter-annual water level fluctuations tend to be more moderate. To quantify the effects of changes in climate and hydrological conditions on thermal structure, we used a numerical simulation model to create scenarios incorporating different air temperatures, inflow volumes, and water levels. The simulations indicate that water column stability, the duration of the mixing period, and surface and outflow temperatures are influenced by both natural factors and by anthropogenic factors such as climate change and reservoir operation schemes. Under continuous warming and more stable storage in recent years, the simulations indicate greater water column stability and increased duration of stratification, while irregular large discharge events may reduce stability and lead to early mixing in autumn. Our results strongly suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality in years of extreme climate variation and hydrological conditions, and selective withdrawal of deep water may provide an efficient means to reduce internal loading in warm years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi.

PubMed

Abbott, Ronald E; Doak, Daniel F; Peterson, Megan L

2017-04-01

The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m 2 plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Hargreaves, A L; Bailey, S F; Laird, R A

2015-08-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low-quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low-fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Model-based evidence for persistent species zonation shifts in the southern Rocky Mountains under a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Shuman, J. K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Dwire, K. A.; Fornwalt, P.; Sibold, J.; Negrón, J. F.

2016-12-01

Forests in the Rocky Mountains are a crucial part of the North American carbon budget, but increases in disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire, in conjunction with climate change, threaten their vitality. Mean annual temperatures in the western United States have increased by 2°C since 1950 and the higher elevations are warming faster than the rest of the landscape. It is predicted that this warming trend will continue, and that by the end of this century, nearly 50% of the western US landscape will have climate profiles with no current analog within that region. Individual tree-based modeling allows various climate change scenarios and their effects on forest dynamics to be tested. We use an updated individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) at a subalpine site in the southern Rocky Mountains. UVAFME has been quantitatively and qualitatively validated in the southern Rocky Mountains, and results show that UVAFME-output on size structure, biomass, and species composition compares reasonably to inventory data and descriptions of vegetation zonation and successional dynamics for the region. We perform a climate sensitivity test in which temperature is first increased linearly by 2°C over 100 years, stabilized for 200 years, cooled back to present climate values over 100 years, and again stabilized for 200 years. This test is conducted to determine what effect elevated temperatures may have on vegetation zonation, and how persistent the changes may be if the climate is brought back to its current state. Results show that elevated temperatures within the southern Rocky Mountains may lead to decreases in biomass and changes in species composition as species migrate upslope. These changes are also likely to be fairly persistent for at least one- to two-hundred years. The results from this study suggest that UVAFME and other individual-based gap models can be used to inform forest management and climate mitigation strategies for this vitally important region.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-04-01

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price could substantially affect other Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in agriculture for agricultural production and food security using an integrated modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between climate change mitigation and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 C, results indicate a food calorie loss in 2050 of up to 330 kcal per capita in food insecure countries. If only developed countries participated in the mitigation effort, the calorie loss would be 40 kcal per capita, however the climate target would not be achieved. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land using a comprehensive set of management options, would allow achieving a 1.5 C target while reducing the implied calorie loss by up to 70% and storing up to 3.5 GtCO2 in soils. Hence, the promotion of so called "win-win" mitigation options i.e. soil carbon sequestration, and ensuring successful mitigation of land use change emissions are crucial to stabilize the climate without deteriorating food security.

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Potential Influence of Climate-Induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E. I.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Lu, X.

2014-12-01

Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the tradeoffs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.

Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

2006-12-01

Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the behavior of terrestrial C mitigation options in the presence and absence of climate change mitigation policies.

Connectivity planning to address climate change.

PubMed

Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2013-04-01

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Heat Transport Compensation in Atmosphere and Ocean over the Past 22,000 Years

PubMed Central

Yang, Haijun; Zhao, Yingying; Liu, Zhengyu; Li, Qing; He, Feng; Zhang, Qiong

2015-01-01

The Earth’s climate has experienced dramatic changes over the past 22,000 years; however, the total meridional heat transport (MHT) of the climate system remains stable. A 22,000-year-long simulation using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model shows that the changes in atmosphere and ocean MHT are significant but tend to be out of phase in most regions, mitigating the total MHT change, which helps to maintain the stability of the Earth’s overall climate. A simple conceptual model is used to understand the compensation mechanism. The simple model can reproduce qualitatively the evolution and compensation features of the MHT over the past 22,000 years. We find that the global energy conservation requires the compensation changes in the atmosphere and ocean heat transports. The degree of compensation is mainly determined by the local climate feedback between surface temperature and net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere. This study suggests that an internal mechanism may exist in the climate system, which might have played a role in constraining the global climate change over the past 22,000 years. PMID:26567710

Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.

PubMed

Kirwan, Matthew L; Mudd, Simon M

2012-09-27

About half of annual marine carbon burial takes place in shallow water ecosystems where geomorphic and ecological stability is driven by interactions between the flow of water, vegetation growth and sediment transport. Although the sensitivity of terrestrial and deep marine carbon pools to climate change has been studied for decades, there is little understanding of how coastal carbon accumulation rates will change and potentially feed back on climate. Here we develop a numerical model of salt marsh evolution, informed by recent measurements of productivity and decomposition, and demonstrate that competition between mineral sediment deposition and organic-matter accumulation determines the net impact of climate change on carbon accumulation in intertidal wetlands. We find that the direct impact of warming on soil carbon accumulation rates is more subtle than the impact of warming-driven sea level rise, although the impact of warming increases with increasing rates of sea level rise. Our simulations suggest that the net impact of climate change will be to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century, but that carbon-climate feedbacks are likely to diminish over time.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: An analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kundis Craig, Robin; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Birge, Hannah E.; DeCaro, Daniel A.; Fremier, Alexander K.; Gosnell, Hannah; Schlager, Edella

2017-01-01

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law.

PubMed

Craig, Robin Kundis; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Allen, Craig R; Arnold, Craig Anthony Tony; Birgé, Hannah; DeCaro, Daniel A; Fremier, Alexander K; Gosnell, Hannah; Schlager, Edella

2017-06-30

Adaptive governance must work "on the ground," that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution's legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Stability, Bistability, and Critical Thresholds in Fire-prone Forested Landscapes: How Frequency and Intensity of Disturbance Interact and Influence Forest Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A. D.

2015-12-01

Many aspects of disturbance processes can have large impacts on the composition of plant communities, and associated changes in land cover type in turn have biogeochemical feedbacks to climate. In particular, changes to disturbance regimes can potentially change the number and stability of equilibrial states, and plant community states can differ dramatically in their carbon (C) dynamics, energy balance, and hydrology. Using the Klamath region of northern California as a model system, we present a theoretical analysis of how changes to climate and associated fire dynamics can disrupt high-carbon, long-lived conifer forests and replace them with shrub-chaparral communities that have much lower biomass and are more pyrogenic. Specifically, we develop a tractable model of plant community dynamics, structured by size class, life-history traits, lottery-type competition, and species-specific responses to disturbance. We assess the stability of different states in terms of disturbance frequency and intensity, and quantitatively partition long-term low-density population growth rates into mechanisms that influence critical transitions from stable to bistable behavior. Our findings show how different aspects of disturbance act and interact to control competitive outcomes and stable states, hence ecosystem-atmosphere C exchange. Forests tend to dominate in low frequency and intensity regimes, while shrubs dominate at high fire frequency and intensity. In other regimes, the system is bistable, and the fate of the system depends both on initial conditions and random chance. Importantly, the system can cross a critical threshold where hysteresis prevents easy return to the prior forested state. We conclude that changes in disturbance-recovery dynamics driven by projected climate change can shift this system away from forest dominated in the direction of shrub-dominated landscape. This will result in a large net C release from the landscape, and alter biophysical ecosystem-climate interactions.

Recent slope failures in the Dolomites (Northeastern Italian Alps) in a context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarle, Marta; Paranunzio, Roberta; Laio, Francesco; Nigrelli, Guido; Guzzetti, Fausto

2014-05-01

Climate change in the Greater Alpine Region is seriously affecting permafrost distribution, with relevant consequences on slope stability. In the Italian Alps, the number of failures from rockwalls at high elevation markedly increased in the last 20-30 years: the consistent temperature increase, which warmed twice than the global average, may have seriously influenced slope stability, in terms of glaciers retreat and permafrost degradation. Moreover, the growing number of tourists and activities in alpine regions (in particular in the Dolomites) made these areas particularly critical in relation to natural hazards. In this light, an integrated short-term geomorphological and climatic analysis was performed, in order to better comprehend the impact of main climate elements (especially temperature and precipitation) on slope failures in high mountain areas. In this contribution, we focus on three recent slope failures occurred at high elevation sites in the Dolomites (Northeastern Italian Alps), declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in August 2009. We describe here three important rock falls occurred in the autumn 2013: 1) the Sorapiss rock fall, on 30 September 2013; 2) the Monte Civetta rock fall, on 16 November 2013; 3) the Monte Antelao rock fall, on 22 November 2013. The Monte Civetta rock fall damaged some climbing routes, while the other two landslides did not cause any damage or injury. Despite the limited volume involved, these three events represent an important warning sign in the context of ongoing climate change. Geomorphological information about the rock fall sites were combined with the climatic data acquired from the meteorological stations surrounding the slope failure areas. A short-term climatic analysis was performed, with the aim of understanding the role of the main climatic elements in the triggering of natural instability events in this area and in the Alps in general.

On the stability treatment in WAsP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giebel, G.; Gryning, S.-E.

2003-04-01

An assessment of the treatment of atmospheric stability in the standard package for wind resource estimation, WAsP (from Risø National Laboratory), is presented. Emphasis is on the vertical wind profiles in WAsP and the treatment of stability therein, under special consideration of the nightly situation. The study starts with an introduction to WAsP and the way it treats the vertical extrapolation, under special consideration of the stability. The two parameters available for changing the stability treatment in WAsP are identified as RMS heat flux and offset heat flux. Four years worth of data from the meteorological mast at Risø, plus data from Egypt and Bermuda, is used for the identification of the parameter settings for stable conditions. To this aim, the measured heat fluxes from the mast were used to extract three data sets with successively higher stability in four different heights. These data sets were then run through the Observed Wind Climate Wizard (part of the WAsP package), resulting in Weibull fits to the data. Using these observed wind climates, a prediction of the highest level wind climate using the lowest level wind climate under all different stable conditions is undertaken and compared with the measured data set. To expand on this study, a systematic variation of the two heat flux parameters in WAsP is done, finding the parameters yielding the lowest overall errors for the predictions. Parts of this study were financed by the Landesumweltamt Brandenburg.

Making Water Ice Permanent at the South Pole 25000 Years Ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montmessin, F.; Haberle, R. M.; Forget, F.

2004-03-01

Whereas most of studies on recent climate change address the fate of water with changing obliquities, we would like to show how the precession cycle might affect the stability of the north polar cap on much faster timescales.

Impact of Geoengineering Schemes on the Global Hydrological Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Duffy, P; Taylor, K

2007-12-07

The rapidly rising CO{sub 2} level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization via 'Geoengineering' schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing the solar radiation incident on earth's surface. In this paper, we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle, using equilibrium simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changesmore » in global mean evaporation than is CO{sub 2} forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4% for solar forcing, but only 1.5% for CO{sub 2} forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. Compared to changing temperature by altering greenhouse gas concentrations, changing temperature by varying insolation results in larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment via changes in insolation than changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.« less

Symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and function determine community responses to global changes: defining critical research areas for coral-Symbiodinium symbioses.

PubMed

Fabina, Nicholas S; Putnam, Hollie M; Franklin, Erik C; Stat, Michael; Gates, Ruth D

2013-11-01

Climate change-driven stressors threaten the persistence of coral reefs worldwide. Symbiotic relationships between scleractinian corals and photosynthetic endosymbionts (genus Symbiodinium) are the foundation of reef ecosystems, and these associations are differentially impacted by stress. Here, we couple empirical data from the coral reefs of Moorea, French Polynesia, and a network theoretic modeling approach to evaluate how patterns in coral-Symbiodinium associations influence community stability under climate change. To introduce the effect of climate perturbations, we simulate local 'extinctions' that represent either the loss of coral species or the ability to engage in symbiotic interactions. Community stability is measured by determining the duration and number of species that persist through the simulated extinctions. Our results suggest that four factors greatly increase coral-Symbiodinium community stability in response to global changes: (i) the survival of generalist hosts and symbionts maximizes potential symbiotic unions; (ii) elevated symbiont diversity provides redundant or complementary symbiotic functions; (iii) compatible symbiotic assemblages create the potential for local recolonization; and (iv) the persistence of certain traits associate with symbiotic diversity and redundancy. Symbiodinium may facilitate coral persistence through novel environmental regimes, but this capacity is mediated by symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and the functional performance of the symbionts. Our model-based approach identifies general trends and testable hypotheses in coral-Symbiodinium community responses. Future studies should consider similar methods when community size and/or environmental complexity preclude experimental approaches. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rainfall and hydrological stability alter the impact of top predators on food web structure and function.

PubMed

Marino, Nicholas A C; Srivastava, Diane S; MacDonald, A Andrew M; Leal, Juliana S; Campos, Alice B A; Farjalla, Vinicius F

2017-02-01

Climate change will alter the distribution of rainfall, with potential consequences for the hydrological dynamics of aquatic habitats. Hydrological stability can be an important determinant of diversity in temporary aquatic habitats, affecting species persistence and the importance of predation on community dynamics. As such, prey are not only affected by drought-induced mortality but also the risk of predation [a non-consumptive effect (NCE)] and actual consumption by predators [a consumptive effect (CE)]. Climate-induced changes in rainfall may directly, or via altered hydrological stability, affect predator-prey interactions and their cascading effects on the food web, but this has rarely been explored, especially in natural food webs. To address this question, we performed a field experiment using tank bromeliads and their aquatic food web, composed of predatory damselfly larvae, macroinvertebrate prey and bacteria. We manipulated the presence and consumption ability of damselfly larvae under three rainfall scenarios (ambient, few large rainfall events and several small rainfall events), recorded the hydrological dynamics within bromeliads and examined the effects on macroinvertebrate colonization, nutrient cycling and bacterial biomass and turnover. Despite our large perturbations of rainfall, rainfall scenario had no effect on the hydrological dynamics of bromeliads. As a result, macroinvertebrate colonization and nutrient cycling depended on the hydrological stability of bromeliads, with no direct effect of rainfall or predation. In contrast, rainfall scenario determined the direction of the indirect effects of predators on bacteria, driven by both predator CEs and NCEs. These results suggest that rainfall and the hydrological stability of bromeliads had indirect effects on the food web through changes in the CEs and NCEs of predators. We suggest that future studies should consider the importance of the variability in hydrological dynamics among habitats as well as the biological mechanisms underlying the ecological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

PubMed

Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

2016-04-01

Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Duan, Lei; Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, Ken

2017-07-01

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a backup plan to offset some aspects of anthropogenic climate change if timely CO2 emission reductions fail to materialize. Modeling studies have shown that there are trade-offs between changes in temperature and hydrological cycle in response to solar geoengineering. Here we investigate the possibility of stabilizing both global mean temperature and precipitation simultaneously by combining two geoengineering approaches: stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space. Using the slab ocean configuration of National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, we simulate SAI by uniformly adding sulfate aerosol in the upper stratosphere and CCT by uniformly increasing cirrus cloud ice particle falling speed. Under an idealized warming scenario of abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, we show that by combining appropriate amounts of SAI and CCT geoengineering, global mean (or land mean) temperature and precipitation can be restored simultaneously to preindustrial levels. However, compared to SAI, cocktail geoengineering by mixing SAI and CCT does not markedly improve the overall similarity between geoengineered climate and preindustrial climate on regional scales. Some optimal spatially nonuniform mixture of SAI with CCT might have the potential to better mitigate climate change at both the global and regional scales.

Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

2016-06-01

Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2-15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

Climate Stability: Pathway to understand abrupt glacial climate shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Knorr, G.; Barker, S.; Lohmann, G.

2017-12-01

Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles that have been linked to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich Stadials (HSs), are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. This motivates scientists to consider that the North Atlantic freshwater perturbations is a common trigger of the associated abrupt transitions between weak and strong AMOC states. However, recent studies suggest that the Heinrich ice-surging events are triggered by ocean subsurface warming associated with an AMOC slow-down. Furthermore, the duration of ice-rafting events does not systematically coincide with the beginning and end of the pronounced cold conditions during HSs. In this context, we show that both, changes in atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet configuration can provide important control on the stability of the AMOC, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Our simulations reveal that gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet height and atmospheric CO2 can act as a trigger of abrupt glacial/deglacial climate changes. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rain belts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence. We further find that under a delicate configuration of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet height the AMOC can be characterized by a self-oscillation (resonance) feature (Hopf Bifucation) with a 1000-year cycle that is comparable with observed small DO events during the MIS 3. This provides an alternative explanation for millennial-scale DO variability during glacial periods.

Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record.

PubMed

Norris, Joel R; Allen, Robert J; Evan, Amato T; Zelinka, Mark D; O'Dell, Christopher W; Klein, Stephen A

2016-08-04

Clouds substantially affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts. Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.

Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, Joel R.; Allen, Robert J.; Evan, Amato T.; Zelinka, Mark D.; O'Dell, Christopher W.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-08-01

Clouds substantially affect Earth’s energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts. Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.

[Constructing climate. From classical climatology to modern climate research].

PubMed

Heymann, Matthias

2009-01-01

Both climate researchers and historians of climate science have conceived climate as a stable and well defined category. This article argues that such a conception is flawed. In the course of the 19th and 20th century the very concept of climate changed considerably. Scientists came up with different definitions and concepts of climate, which implied different understandings, interests, and research approaches. Understanding climate shifted from a timeless, spatial concept at the end of the 19th century to a spaceless, temporal concept at the end of the 20th. Climatologists in the 19th and early 20th centuries considered climate as a set of atmospheric characteristics associated with specific places or regions. In this context, while the weather was subject to change, climate remained largely stable. Of particular interest was the impact of climate on human beings and the environment. In modern climate research at the close of the 20th century, the concept of climate lost its temporal stability. Instead, climate change has become a core feature of the understanding of climate and a focus of research interests. Climate has also lost its immediate association with specific geographical places and become global. The interest is now focused on the impact of human beings on climate. The paper attempts to investigate these conceptual shifts and their origins and impacts in order to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the history of climate research.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

Effect of clinical vignettes on senior medical students' opinions of climate change.

PubMed

Prasad, Vinay; Thistlethwaite, William; Dale, William

2011-06-01

The consequences of climate change directly threaten human health. Some have argued that, as such, doctors have a special duty to solve climate change. Despite such recommendations, to our knowledge, there has been no previous work documenting physician attitudes on climate change, or the stability of those opinions. We invited 523 fourth-year medical students to a survey asking their opinion on climate change and their opinion regarding one of two fictional medical vignettes. In the vignettes, which are analogous to the climate change issue, students decide whether to discontinue a drug that may be adversely affecting laboratory values. In the climate change question, students are asked whether the United States should take efforts to discontinue the use of fossil fuels. Students are randomized to the order in which they receive the questions. Ninety-five percent (95% CI 89.1%-100%) of students initially asked about climate change feel the United States should take steps to curb carbon dioxide emissions, while only 73% (95% CI 57.5%-89.2%) of students respond similarly if first given an analogous patient vignette. Conversely, in all cases where a fictional medical vignette follows the climate change question, students are more likely to cease using a potentially harmful agent (66% CI 53.5%-71.8% vs. 52% CI 43.3%-67.1%). Our results suggest that student physician attitudes to climate change are mutable. Priming students into "medical mode" may alter their opinions on the scientific merit of nonmedical issues, and may be a vestige of a hidden medical curriculum. Further studies should explore the interrelationship between other sociopolitical beliefs and medical decision making.

Average Amount and Stability of Available Agro-Climate Resources in the Main Maize Cropping Regions in China during 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jin; Yang, Xiaoguang

2018-02-01

The available agro-climate resources that can be absorbed and converted into dry matter could directly affect crop growth and yield under climate change. Knowledge of the average amount and stability of available agro-climate resources for maize in the main cropping regions of China under climate change is essential for farmers and advisors to optimize cropping choices and develop adaptation strategies under limited resources. In this study, the three main maize cropping regions in China—the North China spring maize region (NCS), the Huanghuaihai summer maize region (HS), and the Southwest China mountain maize region (SCM)—were selected as study regions. Based on observed solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation data, we analyzed the spatial distributions and temporal trends in the available agro-climate resources for maize during 1981-2010. During this period, significantly prolonged climatological growing seasons for maize [3.3, 2.0, and 4.7 day (10 yr)-1 in NCS, HS, and SCM] were found in all three regions. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of the available agro-climate resources differed among the three regions. The available heating resources for maize increased significantly in the three regions, and the rates of increase were higher in NCS [95.5°C day (10 yr)-1] and SCM [93.5°C day (10 yr)-1] than that in HS [57.7°C day (10 yr)-1]. Meanwhile, decreasing trends in the available water resources were found in NCS [-5.3 mm (10 yr)-1] and SCM [-5.8 mm (10 yr)-1], whereas an increasing trend was observed in HS [3.0 mm (10 yr)-1]. Increasing trends in the available radiation resources were found in NCS [20.9 MJ m-2 (10 yr)-1] and SCM [25.2 MJ m-2 (10 yr)-1], whereas a decreasing trend was found in HS [11.6 MJ m-2 (10 yr)-1]. Compared with 1981-90, the stability of all three resource types decreased during 1991-2000 and 2001-10 in the three regions. More consideration should be placed on the extreme events caused by more intense climate fluctuations. The results can provide guidance in the development of suitable adaptations to climate change in the main maize cropping regions in China.

Review of Mitigation Costs for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; O'Neill, B. C.

2014-12-01

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid future climate change comes at a cost, because low-emission technologies are more expensive than GHG-emitting technology options. The increase in mitigation cost is not linearly related to the stabilization level, though: the first emission reductions are relatively cheap, but deeper emission reductions become more expensive. Therefore, emission reduction to medium levels of GHG concentrations , such as 4.5 or 6 W/m2, is considerably cheaper than emission reduction to low levels of GHG concentrations, such as 2.6 or 3.7 W/m2. Moreover, mitigation costs are influenced by many other aspects than the targeted mitigation level alone, such as whether or not certain technologies are available or societally acceptable (Kriegler et al., 2014); the rate of technological progress and cost reduction of low-emission technologies; the level of final energy demand (Riahi et al., 2011), and the level of global cooperation and trade in emission allowances (den Elzen and Höhne, 2010). This paper reviews the existing literature on greenhouse gas mitigation costs. We analyze the available data on mitigation costs and draw conclusions on how these change for different stabilization levels of GHG concentrations. We will take into account the aspects of technology, energy demand, and cooperation in distinguishing differences between scenarios and stabilization levels. References: den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2C. Climate Policy 10, 247-260. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J., Blanford, G., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D., 2014. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change, 1-15. Riahi, K., Dentener, F., Gielen, D., Grubler, A., Jewell, J., Klimont, Z., Krey, V., McCollum, D., Pachauri, S., Rao, S., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D.P., Wilson, C., 2011. Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development, The Global Energy Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

A 2,000-year reconstruction of the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in the US Southwest.

PubMed

Bocinsky, R Kyle; Kohler, Timothy A

2014-12-04

Humans experience, adapt to and influence climate at local scales. Paleoclimate research, however, tends to focus on continental, hemispheric or global scales, making it difficult for archaeologists and paleoecologists to study local effects. Here we introduce a method for high-frequency, local climate-field reconstruction from tree-rings. We reconstruct the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in two regions of the southwestern United States with dense populations of prehispanic farmers. Niche size and stability are highly variable within and between the regions. Prehispanic rain-fed maize farmers tended to live in agricultural refugia--areas most reliably in the niche. The timing and trajectory of the famous thirteenth century Pueblo migration can be understood in terms of relative niche size and stability. Local reconstructions like these illuminate the spectrum of strategies past humans used to adapt to climate change by recasting climate into the distributions of resources on which they depended.

Impacts of climate change on the formation and stability of late Quaternary sand sheets and falling dunes, Black Mesa region, southern Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellwein, Amy L.; Mahan, Shannon; McFadden, Leslie D.

2015-01-01

Widely used predictive models of eolian system dynamics are typically based entirely on climatic variables and do not account for landscape complexity and geomorphic history. Climate-only assumptions fail to give accurate predictions of the dynamics of this and many other dune fields. A growing body of work suggests that eolian deposits in wind-driven semiarid climates may be more strongly related to increases in sediment supply than to increases in aridity.

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on amore » grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.« less

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

Earth system responses to cumulative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2015-07-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

Transport of Water Ice to the Martian South Pole 25,000 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montmessin, F.; Haberle, R. M.; Forget, F.

2004-11-01

Whereas most of studies on recent climate change address the fate of water with changing obliquities, we would like to show how the precession cycle might affect the stability of the north polar cap on much faster timescales. This study is motivated by the desire to highlight the potential dichotomy, in terms of water stability, between the poles. Not only does this study address perihelion timing, it focuses on the most recent and most significant change of Mars climate. To do so, we use the General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at LMD (Paris/France) to explore the change in water cycle patterns induced by shifting the perihelion date. It is found that, potentially, water ice could have been continuously transferred from north to south pole during episods of "reversed" perihelions. These results have important implications with regards to the recent discovery of thick water ice sheets partially uncovered at the edge of the CO2 residual cap. This work has been funded by the National Research council.

The Road Less Travelled: The Deep Challenges of Social Transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, K. L.; Moser, S. C.

2016-12-01

How do we create the societal transformations necessary to stabilize the global climate and address other global goals? The roadmap metaphor guiding this session reflects a managerial approach to deep decarbonization, one that can be planned, charted, guided and implemented with the tools already known. Transformations and systems change involve far more than technical innovations, policy instruments and behavioral change. Drawing on a wide range of research on transformation processes from the social sciences and humanities and systems science, we argue that current approaches to decarbonization are likely to fail if they ignore theories of social change, including insights on the dynamics of social, cultural, economic and political transformations. Climate stabilization also calls for attention to the relationships between human values, political agency, power, and institutional change. It is precisely these deeper dynamics - which are typically ignored - that stall transformative change. Rather than developing a carbon road map, we suggest both a wider and deeper exploration of the territory of social transformation is needed, and suggest both different metaphors and methods to engage individual change agents and communities of actors, who together can create pathways to sustainability.

Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland.

PubMed

Weedon, James T; Kowalchuk, George A; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F M; van Bodegom, Peter M

2017-01-01

The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50-100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12-15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7-11%) > climate treatment (4-9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates-evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts.

Soil carbon sequestration is a climate stabilization wedge: comments on Sommer and Bossio (2014).

PubMed

Lassaletta, Luis; Aguilera, Eduardo

2015-04-15

Sommer and Bossio (2014) model the potential soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in agricultural soils (croplands and grasslands) during the next 87 years, concluding that this process cannot be considered as a climate stabilization wedge. We argue, however, that the amounts of SOC potentially sequestered in both scenarios (pessimistic and optimistic) fulfil the requirements for being considered as wedge because in both cases at least 25 GtC would be sequestered during the next 50 years. We consider that it is precisely in the near future, and meanwhile other solutions are developed, when this stabilization effort is most urgent even if after some decades the sequestration rate is significantly reduced. Indirect effects of SOC sequestration on mitigation could reinforce the potential of this solution. We conclude that the sequestration of organic carbon in agricultural soils as a climate change mitigation tool still deserves important attention for scientists, managers and policy makers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

PubMed Central

Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

CO{sub 2} Emission Calculations and Trends

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Boden, T. A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R. J.

1995-06-01

Evidence that the atmospheric CO{sub 2}concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is believed to result from CO{sub 2} releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO{sub 2} concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention`s stated objectives was the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO{sub 2} as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions and increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO{sub 2} emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE STABILITY OF SMALL TIDAL INLETS: Part 2- DATA RICH ENVIRONMENTS.

PubMed

Duong, Trang Minh; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Thatcher, Marcus; Mahanama, Sarith; Wang, Zheng Bing; Dissanayake, Pushpa Kumara; Hemer, Mark; Luijendijk, Arjen; Bamunawala, Janaka; Roelvink, Dano; Walstra, Dirkjan

2018-01-01

Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D , to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon - Type 1, Kalutara lagoon - Type 2, and Maha Oya river - Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to ~ 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from 'Good' to 'Fair to poor' by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by ~75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport, not Sea level rise as commonly believed.

Generation 2030/Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

You, Danzhen; Hug, Lucia; Anthony, David

2014-01-01

Until relatively recently, much of Africa has been among the economically least developed and least densely populated places on earth, replete with villages and rural communities. Africa is changing rapidly, in its economy, trade and investment; in climate change; in conflict and stability; in urbanization, migration patterns, and most of all in…

Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

PubMed

Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

2017-12-01

Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia (Editor); Hillel, Daniel (Editor)

2015-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on the food production system are raising concern both globally and regionally. The system is already challenged to deliver sufficient and healthy sustenance to all people, and is certain to be even further challenged as world population grows and price shocks loom. The prospect of climate change intensifies these challenges, raising the risk that more frequent and intense extreme weather events threaten the stability of agricultural production in regions around the globe. This two-part set is an important contribution to the ongoing Imperial College Press (ICP) Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. This series aims to provide the know ledge base necessary for understanding and responding to climate change, in both its current form and future manifestations. In these volumes, ·leading agricultural researchers have come together to contribute their expertise on actual and potential climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation efforts. This ongoing series is jointly published by The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), together with ICP. We hope that this fruitful cooperation will continue for many years to come, as it spurs the global effort to define and meet the great food security and climate change challenges of our time.

Native bees buffer the negative impact of climate warming on honey bee pollination of watermelon crops.

PubMed

Rader, Romina; Reilly, James; Bartomeus, Ignasi; Winfree, Rachael

2013-10-01

If climate change affects pollinator-dependent crop production, this will have important implications for global food security because insect pollinators contribute to production for 75% of the leading global food crops. We investigate whether climate warming could result in indirect impacts upon crop pollination services via an overlooked mechanism, namely temperature-induced shifts in the diurnal activity patterns of pollinators. Using a large data set on bee pollination of watermelon crops, we predict how pollination services might change under various climate change scenarios. Our results show that under the most extreme IPCC scenario (A1F1), pollination services by managed honey bees are expected to decline by 14.5%, whereas pollination services provided by most native, wild taxa are predicted to increase, resulting in an estimated aggregate change in pollination services of +4.5% by 2099. We demonstrate the importance of native biodiversity in buffering the impacts of climate change, because crop pollination services would decline more steeply without the native, wild pollinators. More generally, our study provides an important example of how biodiversity can stabilize ecosystem services against environmental change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record

DOE PAGES

Norris, Joel R.; Allen, Robert J.; Evan, Amato T.; ...

2016-07-11

Clouds substantially affect Earth’s energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space 1. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming 2, 3. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts 4, 5. Here we show that several independent,more » empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. Here, these results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.« less

Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norris, Joel R.; Allen, Robert J.; Evan, Amato T.

Clouds substantially affect Earth’s energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space 1. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming 2, 3. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts 4, 5. Here we show that several independent,more » empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. Here, these results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.« less

Interdisciplinary challenges in the study of power grid resilience and stability and their relation to extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heitzig, J.; Fujiwara, N.; Aihara, K.; Kurths, J.

2014-10-01

This topical issue collects contributions to the interdisciplinary study of power grid stability in face of increasing volatility of energy production and consumption due to increasing renewable energy infeed and changing climatic conditions. The individual papers focus on different aspects of this field and bring together modern achievements from various disciplines, in particular complex systems science, nonlinear data analysis, control theory, electrical engineering, and climatology. Main topics considered here are prediction and volatility of renewable infeed, modelling and theoretical analysis of power grid topology, dynamics and stability, relationships between stability and complex network topology, and improvements via topological changes or control. Impacts for the design of smart power grids are discussed in detail.

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Obase, T.

2017-12-01

Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere?ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions, i.e., to an increase (doubling) of CO2 and the Last Glacial Maximum conditions. We also conducted sensitivity experiments to investigate the role of surface atmospheric change, which strongly affects sea ice production, and the change of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. We found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat flux and ocean temperature are both important for warm and cold climates. The offshore wind change together with atmospheric heat flux change strongly affected the production of sea ice and high-density water, preventing warmer water approaching the ice shelves under a colder climate. These results reflect the importance of both water mass formation in the Antarctic shelf seas and subsurface ocean temperature in understanding the long-term response to climate change of the melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

Long-term resistance to simulated climate change in an infertile grassland.

PubMed

Grime, J Philip; Fridley, Jason D; Askew, Andrew P; Thompson, Ken; Hodgson, John G; Bennett, Chris R

2008-07-22

Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.

Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2007

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

soil food webs and the mineral nutrition of vascular plants. Biological crusts also contribute to soil stability (reducing erosion) and water...In Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the network studied the decline of corn productivity after the second year of cultivation, and determined that corn

The Influence of Increasing Rain and Earthquake Activities on Landslide Slope Stability in Forest Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, T.; Aditian, A.

2014-12-01

Deriving the analysis of rainfall data in various mountainous locations, increase in rainfall that is deemed to be induced by the global climate change is obvious in Kyushu district, western Japan. On this point of view, its long term impact on the forest slope stability is analyzed with field investigation and numerical simulation such as finite element method (FEM). On the other hand, the influence of earthquake such as cracks on the slope due to seismic vibration was also analyzed with FEM. In this case, the slope stability analysis to obtain the factor of safety "Fs" is conducted. Here, in case of the Fs > 1.0, the slope is stable. In addition, the slope stabilizing effect of the forest mainly due to the roots strength is evaluated on some unstable slopes. Simultaneously, a holistic estimation over landslide groups is conducted by comparing "Fs" on forest slopes with non- forest slopes. Therefore, the following conclusions are obtained: 1) Comparing the Fs without increased rainfall from the previous decade and the one with actual rainfall, the former case is 1.04 ~1.06 times more stable than the latter. 2) On the other hand, the forest slopes are estimated to be up to approximately 1.5 to 2.5 times more stable than the slope without forest. Therefore, the slope stabilizing effect by the forest is much higher than the increasing rainfall influence i.e. the climate change effect. These results imply that an appropriate forest existence is important under the climate change condition to prevent forest slope degradation. 3) Comparing with the destabilization of the slope by seismic activities (vibration) due to the reduction of soil strength and "cracks = slope deformation" (8~9 % to 30% reduction in Fs even after an earthquake of 490gal), the influence of the long term rainfall increase on slopes (such as 1% decrease in Fs) is relatively small in the study area.

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia

PubMed Central

Cumming, Brian F.; Laird, Kathleen R.; Bennett, Joseph R.; Smol, John P.; Salomon, Anne K.

2002-01-01

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions. PMID:12461174

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia.

PubMed

Cumming, Brian F; Laird, Kathleen R; Bennett, Joseph R; Smol, John P; Salomon, Anne K

2002-12-10

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansionrecession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions.

Hysteresis in the Central African Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Gautam, Sishir; Petritsch, Richard; Schier, Franziska; Stanzl, Patrick

2014-05-01

Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, analyse the relationship between resilience, standing C-stocks and change in climate and finally provide evidence of hysteresis.

Bed stability in unconfined gravel bed mountain streams: With implications for salmon spawning viability in future climates

Treesearch

Jim McKean; Daniele Tonina

2013-01-01

Incubating eggs of autumn-spawning Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) could be at risk of midwinter high flows and substrate scour in a changing climate. A high-spatial-resolution multidimensional hydrodynamics model was used to assess the degree of scour risk in low-gradient unconfined gravel bed channels that are the favored environment for autumn-spawning...

Energy and technology lessons since Rio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.

2012-11-01

The 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change created the basic international architecture for addressing climate change. That treaty was negotiated at a time when the research literature examining emissions mitigation and the role of energy technology was relatively limited. In the two subsequent decades a great deal has been learned. The problem of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has proved far more difficult than envisioned in 1992 and the role of technology appears even more important when emissions mitigation strategies are co-developed in the context of multiple competing ends.

Contingency in the Direction and Mechanics of Soil Organic Matter Responses to Increased Rainfall

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berhe, Asmeret A.; Suttle, K. Blake; Burton, Sarah D.

2012-09-03

Shifts in regional precipitation patterns will be a major component of global climate change. Rainfall will show greater and more variable changes in response to rising earth surface temperatures than most other climatic variables, and will be a major driver of ecosystem change. We studied the consequences of predicted changes in California’s rainy season for storage and stabilization mechanisms of soil organic matter (SOM). In a controlled and replicated experiment, we amended rainfall over large plots of natural grassland in accordance with alternative scenarios of future climate change. Results show that increases in annual rainfall have important consequences for soilmore » C storage, but that the strength and even direction of these effects depend entirely on seasonal timing. Rainfall increases during the winter rainy season led to pronounced C loss from soil while rainfall increases after the typical rainy season increased soil C stocks. Analysis of mineral-OM associations reveals a powerful mechanism underlying this difference: increased winter rainfall vastly diminished the role of Fe and Al oxides in SOM stabilization. Dithionite extractable crystalline Fe oxides explained more than 35 percent of the variability in C storage in ambient control and spring-addition treatments, compared to less than 0.01 percent in the winter-addition treatment. Likewise, poorly crystalline Fe and Al oxides explained more than 25 and 40 percent of the variability in C storage, respectively, in the control and spring-addition treatments compared to less than 5 percent in the -winter-addition treatment. Increases in annual precipitation identical in amount but at three-month offsets produced opposite effects on soil C storage. These results highlight the complexity inherent in biospheric feedbacks to the climate system, and the way that careful experimentation can penetrate that complexity to improve predictions of ecosystem and climatic change.« less

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

PubMed Central

Ackerly, David D.; Cornwell, William K.; Weiss, Stuart B.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions. PMID:26115485

Cumulative Carbon and Anthropocene Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Solomon, S.

2010-12-01

In this presentation we will highlight a few of the key findings of the recently completed National Research Council Study Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (NRC, 2010), and discuss their implications for planetary stewardship. A synthesis of published results shows that the single number which most characterizes the magnitude of the human imprint on the climate of the coming millennia is the net amount of carbon released as CO2 by fossil fuel burning and land use changes during the time over which humanity continues such activities. Details of emissions scenarios are not important; rather it is the net carbon released by the time the emissions have been brought to essentially zero that controls long-term climate changes. In this report, we estimate that global temperatures increase by about 1 degree for approximately every 570 Pg of carbon emitted. Each degree of global temperature change is associated with quantifiable impacts on human and natural systems, including loss of arctic sea ice, decreased productivity of several major food crops, decreased precipitation in dry regions, and increases in area burnt by wildfire. Furthermore, the long timescale of temperature changes due to cumulative carbon emissions entails a lock-in to many centuries of continued sea-level rise, as well as the possibility of substantial contributions to sea-level rise from both Greenland and the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Reductions in methane or other short-lived greenhouse gas emissions can be of benefit in mitigating the near term climate changes, but CO2 is unique among major greenhouse gases in its ability to disrupt climate on multi-millennial time scales. This implies a need for correspondingly special treatment of this gas in emissions control protocols, for example by setting targets for allowable cumulative carbon emissions over time. The authoring committee was composed of Susan Solomon, Chair, David Battisti, Scott Doney, Katharine Hayhoe, Isaac M. Held, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David Lobell, Damon Matthews, Raymond Pierrehumbert, Marilyn Raphael, Richard Richels, Terry L. Root, Konrad Steffen, Claudia Tebaldi, and Gary W. Yohe. Reference: National Research Council, 2010, Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 232 pp.

What can we learn about the dynamics of DO-events from studying the high resolution ice core records?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ditlevsen, Peter

2017-04-01

The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Present day general circulation climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they are due to bifurcations in the structural stability of the climate or if they are induced by stochastic fluctuations. By analyzing a high resolution ice core record we exclude the bifurcation scenario, which strongly suggests that they are noise induced and thus have very limited predictability. Ref: Peter Ditlevsen, "Tipping points in the climate system", in Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (C. Franzke and T. O'Kane, eds.) (2016) P. D. Ditlevsen and S. Johnsen, "Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19703, 2010

Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hei Tong, Cheuk

2017-04-01

Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate matters due to changes in stability in future years.

Microbial mediated soil structure formation under wetting and drying cycles along a climate gradient (arid to humid) on hillslopes in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Nadine; Moskwa, Lisa-Marie; Kühn, Peter; Mueller, Carsten W.; Wagner, Dirk; Scholten, Thomas

2017-04-01

It is well-known that the land surface resistance against erosion is largely controlled by the structure stability of the soil given by its inherent properties. Microbial activity plays a vital role in soil structure development, and thus affecting soil physical parameters. Accordingly the influence of biota shaping the earth's surface has been described through mechanisms such as mineral weathering, formation of ions and biofilms controlling land surface resistance against erosion. However the role of microorganisms for the development of soil stabilizing properties is still unclear and a precise quantitative understanding of the mechanisms under different climate conditions is widely missing. The objectives of our study are to examine to which extend microbiological processes control soil structure formation and stability and whether this is influenced by climate and topographic position. Soil samples were taken along a climate gradient and from different topographic positions of hillslopes in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera in austral autumn 2016. The variables of lithology, human disturbances and relief were held as far as possible constant whereas climate varies along the transect. We implemented 10 wet-dry cycles on air dried and sieved natural and sterile samples to enhance particle aggregation and increase structure stability. Throughout the entire experiment temperature is held constant at 20 °C to avoid changes in microbial activity. Samples are moistened and dried and each kept at the same respective pF-values for the same duration to add the same stress to each sample. Aggregate stability will be measured using wet sieving, ultrasonic dispersion and simulated rainfall. The results will be compared with on-site rainfall simulation experiments on hillslopes in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera to link laboratory results with natural field conditions. The experiment gives first insight into the aggregate formation process over time with and without microorganisms (sterilized samples). Furthermore it allows to qualify and quantify the contribution of biota to soil structure formation and stability.

Eolian sediment responses to late Quaternary climate changes: Temporal and spatial patterns in the Sahara

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swezey, C.

2001-01-01

This paper presents a compilation of eolian-based records of late Quaternary climate changes in the Sahara. Although the data are relatively sparse, when viewed as a whole, they reveal a general pattern of widespread eolian sediment mobilization prior to 11,000 cal. years BP, eolian sediment stabilization from 11,000 to 5000 cal. years BP, and a return to widespread eolian sediment mobilization after 5000 cal. years BP. Furthermore, an eolian-based record from southern Tunisia reveals the existence of millennial-scale changes in eolian sediment behavior. These millennial-scale variations provide examples of eolian sediment responses to climate changes at a scale intermediate between seasonal and orbital ('Milankovitch') changes, and they are also coincident with abrupt atmospheric and oceanic changes. The general synchroneity of the eolian stratigraphic records and their coincidence with various oceanic and atmospheric changes suggest that global forcing mechanisms have influenced late Quaternary eolian sediment behavior in the Sahara. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, R. E.; Hayhoe, K.; Easterling, D. R.; Hall, T.; Horton, R.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610370

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

PubMed

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

2018-05-13

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meijl, Hans; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F. L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Zeist, Willem-Jan

2018-06-01

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

Paleoenvironmental framework for understanding the development, stability, and state-changes of cienegas in the American deserts

Treesearch

Thomas A. Minckley; Andrea Brunelle; Dale Turner

2013-01-01

As persistent wetlands in arid regions, ciénegas represent important resources for the maintenance and preservation of regional biodiversity. The history of ciénegas in the American Southwest over the last 8,000 years provides information on the dynamics of growth, longevity, and stability of these habitats under previous climate conditions. Proxy data such as...

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos)

PubMed Central

Jezkova, Tereza; Jaeger, Jef R.; Oláh-Hemmings, Viktória; Jones, K. Bruce; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael A.; Mulcahy, Daniel G.; Riddle, Brett R.

2015-01-01

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change. PMID:27231410

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos).

PubMed

Jezkova, Tereza; Jaeger, Jef R; Oláh-Hemmings, Viktória; Jones, K Bruce; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael A; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Riddle, Brett R

2016-05-01

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions - niches - to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard ( Phrynosoma platyrhinos ), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Bony, S.; Braconnot, P.

2015-12-01

Most climate studies characterize the future climate change by considering the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. It emphasizes an increase of future precipitation changes with global warming. Here we use an alternative approach that considers rate of change indicators related to precipitation using projections of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The rate is defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. This approach can be relevant to impacts affecting upcoming generations, and to their continuous adaptation towards a changing target. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), moistening and drying rates strongly increase at the global scale. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more and more regions exhibit substantial rates. These regions are modified over time due to spatial variability of precipitation. However, we show that they tend to become more geographically stationary through the century, leading to persisting trends at several places over the globe. Whilst global warming is accelerating, this spatial stabilization is due to the decreasing relative influence of global circulation in precipitation changes compared to thermodynamic processes. In specific regions, the combination of intensification and persistence of such substantial rates should be considered in the framework of future impact studies (i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic). These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies (RCP2.6) were quickly implemented.

Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland

PubMed Central

Weedon, James T.; Kowalchuk, George A.; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F. M.; van Bodegom, Peter M.

2017-01-01

The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50–100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12–15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7–11%) > climate treatment (4–9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates—evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts. PMID:28326062

Regional Responses to Black Carbon Aerosols: The Importance of Air-Sea Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Scott, A. A.; Pradal, M.-A.; Seviour, W. J. M.; Waugh, D. W.

2017-12-01

The impact of modern black carbon aerosols on climate via their changes in radiative balance is studied using a coupled model where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are allowed to vary and an atmosphere-only version of the same model where SSTs are held fixed. Allowing the ocean to respond is shown to have a profound impact on the pattern of temperature change. Particularly, large impacts are found in the North Pacific (which cools by up to 1 K in the coupled model) and in north central Asia (which warms in the coupled simulation and cools in the fixed SST simulation). Neither set of experiments shows large changes in surface temperatures in the Southeast Asian region where the atmospheric burden of black carbon is highest. These results are related to the stabilization of the atmosphere and changes in oceanic heat transport. Over the North Pacific, atmospheric stabilization results in an increase in stratiform clouds. The resulting shading reduces evaporation, freshening the surface layer of the ocean and reducing the inflow of warm subtropical waters. Over the land, a delicate balance between greater atmospheric absorption, shading of the surface and changes in latent cooling of the surface helps to determine whether warming or cooling is seen. Our results emphasize the importance of coupling in determining the response of the climate system to black carbon and suggest that black carbon may play an important role in modulating climate change over the North Pacific.

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;

Summary and synthesis: past and future changes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest.

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin; David McGuire; Roger W. Ruess; Marilyn W. Walker; Richard D. Boone; Mary E. Edwards; Bruce P. Finney; Larry D. Hinzman; Jeremy B. Jones; Glenn P. Juday; Eric S. Kasischke; Knut Kielland; Andrea H. Lloyd; Mark W. Oswood; Chien-Lu Ping; Eric Rexstad; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Joshua P. Schimel; Elena B. Sparrow; Bjartmar Sveinbjörnsson; David W. Valentine; Keith Van Cleve; David L. Verbyla; Leslie A. Viereck; Richard A. Werner; Tricia L. Wurtz; John Yarie

2006-01-01

Historically the boreal forest has experienced major changes, and it remains a highly dynamic biome today. During cold phases of Quaternary climate cycles, forests were virtually absent from Alaska, and since the postglacial re-establishment of forests ca 13,000 years ago, here have been periods of both relative stability and rapid change (Chapter 5). Today, the...

Soil organic carbon stability across a Mediterranean oak agroecosystem

Treesearch

Leslie M. Roche; James F. Chang; Johan Six; Anthony T. O' Geen; Kenneth W. Tate

2015-01-01

Rangelands are estimated to cover 30 to 50 percent of the world's land surface and have significant belowground carbon (C) storage potential. Given their geographical extent, many have suggested that even modest changes in C storage via management practices could alter the global C cycle, creating climate change mitigation opportunities. Our objective was to...

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Crop Residue Management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diversification and intensification of inland Pacific Northwest (PNW) dryland cereal cropping systems can present win-win scenarios that deliver short and long-term benefits for producers and the environment, stabilizing profit and increasing adaptability to and mitigation of climate change. Improvi...

Rotational diversification and intensification

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diversification and intensification of inland Pacific Northwest (PNW) dryland cereal cropping systems can present win-win scenarios that deliver short and long-term benefits for producers and the environment, stabilizing profit and increasing adaptability to and mitigation of climate change. Improvi...

River stabilisation due to changing climate and vegetation during the late Quaternary in western Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanson, Gerald C.; Barbetti, Mike; Taylor, Gillian

1995-09-01

The Stanley River in western Tasmania, Australia, contains sub-fossil rainforest logs within the channel and floodplain. Of the more than 85 radiocarbon dates obtained, all but 3 date from 17 ka to the present and permit an interpretation of fluvial and related environmental changes over this period. Particular attention is focused on the interactive relationship between the river and its riparian rainforest. Following the Last Glacial Maximum, the Stanley River was a laterally active gravel-load system reworking most of its valley floor in the upstream reaches. With ameliorating conditions at the end of the Pleistocene, climate became less seasonal and flow regimes less energetic. Huon pines already present in the catchment, re-asserted themselves in the form of dense tree cover along the river banks and floodplains with basal floodplain deposition shifting from gravels to coarse sands and granules. By about 3.5 ka, a further change in climate reduced stream discharges substantially. As a result the channel reduced in size, transported finer sediment, became laterally stable, and the floodplain accreted with overbank deposits of sand and silt. Huon pines falling into the channel formed obstructions of woody debris, some surviving for 2 ka. These have reduced stream power and boundary shear stress, further contributing to channel stability. Generational sequences of Huon pines on the river banks, some extending back 1-2 ka, are additional evidence of this stability. Since the Pleistocene, changing climate and the re-establishment of dense riparian rainforest appear to have stabilised the river channels and floodplains of western Tasmania.

Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

2018-01-01

The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

Potential impact of climate change on the Intra-Americas Sea: Part 2. Implications for Atlantic bluefin tuna and skipjack tuna adult and larval habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, Barbara A.; Liu, Yanyun; Lee, Sang-Ki; Lamkin, John T.; Roffer, Mitchell A.; Muller-Karger, Frank; Walter, John F., III

2015-08-01

Increasing water temperatures due to climate change will likely have significant impacts on distributions and life histories of Atlantic tunas. In this study, we combined predictive habitat models with a downscaled climate model to examine potential impacts on adults and larvae of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS). An additional downscaled model covering the 20th century was used to compare habitat fluctuations from natural variability to predicted future changes under two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (medium-low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Results showed marked temperature-induced habitat losses for both adult and larval bluefin tuna on their northern Gulf of Mexico spawning grounds. In contrast, habitat suitability for skipjack tuna increased as temperatures warmed. Model error was highest for the two skipjack tuna models, particularly at higher temperatures. This work suggests that influences of climate change on highly migratory Atlantic tuna species are likely to be substantial, but strongly species-specific. While impacts on fish populations remain uncertain, these changes in habitat suitability will likely alter the spatial and temporal availability of species to fishing fleets, and challenge equilibrium assumptions of environmental stability, upon which fisheries management benchmarks are based.

RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.

2011-07-29

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m{sup -2} in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, includingmore » shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m{sup -2}, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.« less

Climate Penalty on Air Quality and Human Health in China and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

48,000 years of climate and forest change in a biodiversity hot spot.

PubMed

Bush, Mark B; Silman, Miles R; Urrego, Dunia H

2004-02-06

A continuous 48,000-year-long paleoecological record from Neotropical lower montane forest reveals a consistent forest presence and an ice-age cooling of approximately 5 degrees to 9 degrees C. After 30,000 years of compositional stability, a steady turnover of species marks the 8000-year-long transition from ice-age to Holocene conditions. Although the changes were directional, the rates of community change were no different during this transitional period than in the preceding 30,000-year period of community stability. The warming rate of about 1 degrees C per millennium during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition was an order of magnitude less than the projected changes for the 21st century.

Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa. Part I: model validation and contemporary climate evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Pal, Jeremy S.; Yu, Miao

2016-02-01

Mineral dusts present in the atmosphere can play an important role in climate over West Africa and surrounding regions. However, current understanding regarding how dust aerosols influence climate of West Africa is very limited. In this study, a regional climate model is used to investigate the potential climatic impacts of dust aerosols. Two sets of simulations driven by reanalysis and Earth System Model boundary conditions are performed with and without the representation of dust processes. The model, regardless of the boundary forcing, captures the spatial and temporal variability of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration. The shortwave radiative forcing of dust is negative at the surface and positive in the atmosphere, with greater changes in the spring and summer. The presence of mineral dusts causes surface cooling and lower troposphere heating, resulting in a stabilization effect and reduction in precipitation in the northern portion of the monsoon close to the dust emissions region. This results in an enhancement of precipitation to the south. While dusts cause the lower troposphere to stabilize, upper tropospheric cooling makes the region more prone to intense deep convection as is evident by a simulated increase in extreme precipitation. In a companion paper, the impacts of dust emissions on future West African climate are investigated.

Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Elizabeth Ann; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-02-01

Landslides have large negative economic and societal impacts, including loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment is a vital tool for landslide risk management, but high levels of uncertainty often challenge its usefulness. Uncertainties are associated with the numerical model used to assess slope stability and its parameters, with the data characterizing the geometric, geotechnic and hydrologic properties of the slope, and with hazard triggers (e.g. rainfall). Uncertainties associated with many of these factors are also likely to be exacerbated further by future climatic and socio-economic changes, such as increased urbanization and resultant land use change. In this study, we illustrate how numerical models can be used to explore the uncertain factors that influence potential future landslide hazard using a bottom-up strategy. Specifically, we link the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) with sensitivity analysis and Classification And Regression Trees (CART) to identify critical thresholds in slope properties and climatic (rainfall) drivers that lead to slope failure. We apply our approach to a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. For this particular slope, we find that uncertainties regarding some slope properties (namely thickness and effective cohesion of topsoil) are as important as the uncertainties related to future rainfall conditions. Furthermore, we show that 89 % of the expected behaviour of the studied slope can be characterized based on only two variables - the ratio of topsoil thickness to cohesion and the ratio of rainfall intensity to duration.

Symbiont community stability through severe coral bleaching in a thermally extreme lagoon.

PubMed

Smith, E G; Vaughan, G O; Ketchum, R N; McParland, D; Burt, J A

2017-05-25

Coral reefs are threatened by climate change as coral-algal symbioses are currently living close to their upper thermal limits. The resilience of the algal partner plays a key role in determining the thermal tolerance of the coral holobiont and therefore, understanding the acclimatory limits of present day coral-algal symbioses is fundamental to forecasting corals' responses to climate change. This study characterised the symbiont community in a highly variable and thermally extreme (Max = 37.5 °C, Min = 16.8 °C) lagoon located in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf using next generation sequencing of ITS2 amplicons. Despite experiencing extreme temperatures, severe bleaching and many factors that would be expected to promote the presence of, or transition to clade D dominance, the symbiont communities of the lagoon remain dominated by the C3 variant, Symbiodinium thermophilum. The stability of this symbiosis across multiple genera with different means of symbiont transmission highlights the importance of Symbiodinium thermophilum for corals living at the acclimatory limits of modern day corals. Corals in this extreme environment did not undergo adaptive bleaching, suggesting they are living at the edge of their acclimatory potential and that this valuable source of thermally tolerant genotypes may be lost in the near future under climate change.

Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to the Deployment of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lapsa, Melissa Voss; Brown, Marilyn A.

The United States shares with many other countries the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Many believe that accelerating the pace of technology improvement and deployment could significantly reduce the cost of achieving this goal. The critical role of new technologies is underscored by the fact that most anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted over the next century will come from equipment and infrastructure built in the future. As a result, new technologies and fuels have the potential to transform the nation's energy system whilemore » meeting climate change as well as energy security and other goals.« less

To Tip or Not to Tip: The Case of the Congo Basin Rainforest Realm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S.; Bednar, J. E.; Fath, B. D.; Winter, P. A.

2017-12-01

The future response of the Congo basin rainforest, the second largest tropical carbon reservoir, to climate change is still under debate. Different Climate projections exist stating increase and decrease in rainfall and different changes in rainfall patterns. Within this study we assess all options of climate change possibilities to define the climatic thresholds of Congo basin rainforest stability and assess the limiting conditions for rainforest persistence. We use field data from 199 research plots from the Western Congo basin to calibrate and validate a complex BioGeoChemistry model (BGC-MAN) and assess model performance against an array of possible future climates. Next, we analyze the reasons for the occurrence of tipping points, their spatial and temporal probability of occurrence, will present effects of hysteresis and derive probabilistic spatial-temporal resilience landscapes for the region. Additionally, we will analyze attractors of forest growth dynamics and assess common linear measures for early warning signals of sudden shifts in system dynamics for their robustness in the context of the Congo Basin case, and introduce the correlation integral as a nonlinear measure of risk assessment.

Readings from Visibility Meters: Do They Really Mean the Maximum Distance of Observing A Black Object?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2016-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Maize Yield Water Constraints under Climate Change in Spain

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis

2014-01-01

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent “hot-spots” in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity. PMID:24878747

Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize yield water constraints under climate change in Spain.

PubMed

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis

2014-01-01

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent "hot-spots" in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity.

Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C.D.

2014-01-01

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1, 2, 3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1, 4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Gilmore, Elisabeth

2016-05-01

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960-2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014-2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated. The impact of the simulated surface warming on the ice flow and ice dynamics is explored.

Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Sutherst, Robert W.

2004-01-01

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Anne

2011-06-01

The U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at double the preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To achieve this goal, carbon emissions in 2050 must not exceed their current level, despite predictions of a dramatic increase in global electricity demand. The need to reduce GHG emissions and simultaneously provide for additional electricity demand has led to a renewed interest in the expansion of alternatives to fossil fuels—particularly renewable energy and nuclear power. As renewable energy sources are often constrained by the intermittency of natural energy forms, scale-ability concerns, cost and environmental barriers, many governments and even prominent environmentalist turn to nuclear energy as a source of clean, reliable base-load electricity. Described by some as a "nuclear renaissance", this trend of embracing nuclear power as a tool to mitigate climate change will dramatically influence the feasibility of emerging nuclear programs around the world.

A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winslow, Anne

2011-06-28

The U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at double the preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To achieve this goal, carbon emissions in 2050 must not exceed their current level, despite predictions of a dramatic increase in global electricity demand. The need to reduce GHG emissions and simultaneously provide for additional electricity demand has led to a renewed interest in the expansion of alternatives to fossil fuels--particularly renewable energy and nuclear power. As renewable energy sources are often constrained by the intermittencymore » of natural energy forms, scale-ability concerns, cost and environmental barriers, many governments and even prominent environmentalist turn to nuclear energy as a source of clean, reliable base-load electricity. Described by some as a ''nuclear renaissance'', this trend of embracing nuclear power as a tool to mitigate climate change will dramatically influence the feasibility of emerging nuclear programs around the world.« less

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Shaw, Ruth G; Etterson, Julie R

2012-09-01

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Virtual water trade in the Roman Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian; van Beek, Rens; Meeks, Elijah; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Scheidel, Walter; van der Velde, Ype; Bierkens, Marc; Wassen, Martin; Dekker, Stefan

2015-04-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in pre-industrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socio-economic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we found that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to inter-annual climate variability. However, urbanisation and population growth arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. Our newest findings also assess the impact that persistent climate change associated with Holocene climate anomalies had on Roman water resource management. Specifically we assess the impact of the change in climate from the Roman Warm Period to the Dark Ages Cold Period on the Roman food supply and whether it could have contributed to the fall of the Western Roman Empire.

Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy

2004-12-01

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewingmore » the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.« less

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts.

PubMed

Rutherford, William A; Painter, Thomas H; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C

2017-03-10

Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-03-01

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody B.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Phylogenetic assemblage structure of North American trees is more strongly shaped by glacial-interglacial climate variability in gymnosperms than in angiosperms.

PubMed

Ma, Ziyu; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-05-01

How fast does biodiversity respond to climate change? The relationship of past and current climate with phylogenetic assemblage structure helps us to understand this question. Studies of angiosperm tree diversity in North America have already suggested effects of current water-energy balance and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial-interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic endemism, the concentration of unique lineages in restricted ranges, may also be related to glacial-interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100-km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility to recolonization to quantify glacial-interglacial climate variability. We found: (1) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages toward lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. (2) Long-term climate stability is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. (3) Factors linked to glacial-interglacial climate change have stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest that paleoclimate legacies supplement current climate in shaping phylogenetic patterns in North American trees, and especially so for gymnosperms.

Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers.

PubMed

Callaghan, Terry V; Jonasson, Christer; Thierfelder, Tomas; Yang, Zhenlin; Hedenås, Henrik; Johansson, Margareta; Molau, Ulf; Van Bogaert, Rik; Michelsen, Anders; Olofsson, Johan; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth; Bjerke, Jarle W; Tømmervik, Hans; Christensen, Torben R; Hanna, Edward; Koller, Eva K; Sloan, Victoria L

2013-08-19

The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.

Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers

PubMed Central

Callaghan, Terry V; Jonasson, Christer; Thierfelder, Tomas; Yang, Zhenlin; Hedenås, Henrik; Johansson, Margareta; Molau, Ulf; Van Bogaert, Rik; Michelsen, Anders; Olofsson, Johan; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Tømmervik, Hans; Christensen, Torben R.; Hanna, Edward; Koller, Eva K.; Sloan, Victoria L.

2013-01-01

The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented. PMID:23836792

NATO and Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durand, Henry

1988-01-01

Outlines the Third Dimension of NATO. Presses for increased efforts to overcome the disparity in the rate of scientific development among the countries of the alliance. Discusses scientific nobility, the rise of European science, science for stability, environmental protection, and the changed scientific climate. (CW)

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2011-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Estimation of the possible influence of future climate changes on biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, H. M.; Nishina, K.; Ito, A.

2015-12-01

In recent decades, climate change has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity, particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles and here carbon is one of the central elements. The photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants, which forms the basis of the food web, is known to be highly sensitive to meteorological changes including radiation, temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration. Thus an analysis of the effect of future climate change on the carbon cycle processes including photosynthetic production in a biogeographical region, which is important from the viewpoint of the biodiversity conservation, such as "biodiversity hotspot", might enable us to discuss the relevance between climate change and biodiversity.In ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) phase 1, we have estimated NPP (net primary production), plant biomass and soil organic carbon by seven global biome models under climate conditions from 1901 to 2100 based on four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways for 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m-2 stabilization targets) and five global climate models. In the present study, we analyzed these outputs to reveal the effects of changes on NPP, plant biomass and soil organic carbon in 20 biodiversity hotspots in various climatic regions. Although NPP of whole world tended to increase under RCP 8.5 W m-2 scenario, some biome models have shown that NPP of the hotspots in tropical regions decrease.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Dealing with unquantifiable uncertainties in landslide modelling for urban risk reduction in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment can be used to guide decisions about the management of landslide risk, but its usefulness can be challenged by high levels of uncertainty in predicting landslide occurrence. Prediction uncertainty may be associated with the choice of model that is used to assess slope stability, the quality of the available input data, or a lack of knowledge of how future climatic and socio-economic changes may affect future landslide risk. While some of these uncertainties can be characterised by relatively well-defined probability distributions, for other uncertainties, such as those linked to climate change, no probability distribution is available to characterise them. This latter type of uncertainty, often referred to as deep uncertainty, means that robust policies need to be developed that are expected to perform acceptably well over a wide range of future conditions. In our study the impact of deep uncertainty on slope stability predictions is assessed in a quantitative and structured manner using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM). In particular, we use several GSA methods including the Method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Classification and Regression Trees (CART), as well as advanced visualization tools, to assess the combination of conditions that may lead to slope failure. Our example application is a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates during the hurricane season, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and changing climate may further exacerbate landslide risk in the future. Our example shows how we can gain useful information in the presence of deep uncertainty by combining physically based models with GSA in a scenario discovery framework.

Discrimination among semi-arid landscape endmembers using the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuhas, Roberta H.; Goetz, Alexander F. H.; Boardman, Joe W.

1992-01-01

Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were acquired during three consecutive seasons of the year (26 Sep. 1989, 22 Mar. 1990, and 7 Aug. 1990) over an area of the High Plains east of Greeley, Colorado. This region contains extensive eolian deposits in the form of stabilized dune complexes (small scale parabolic dunes superimposed on large scale longitudinal and parabolic dunes). Due to the dunes' large scale (2-10 km) and low relief (1-5 m), the scaling relationships that contribute to the evolution of this landscape are nearly impossible to understand without the use of remote sensing. Additionally, climate models indicate that the High Plains could be one of the first areas to experience changes in climate caused by either global warming or cooling. During the past 10,000 years there were at least three periods of extensive sand activity, followed by periods of landscape stability, as shown in the stratigraphic record of this area. Therefore, if the past is an indication of the future, the monitoring of this landscape and its sensitive ecosystem is important for early detection of regional and global climate change.

Estimates of future warming-induced methane emissions from hydrate offshore west Svalbard for a range of climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marín-Moreno, Héctor; Minshull, Timothy A.; Westbrook, Graham K.; Sinha, Bablu

2015-05-01

Methane hydrate close to the hydrate stability limit in seafloor sediment could represent an important source of methane to the oceans and atmosphere as the oceans warm. We investigate the extent to which patterns of past and future ocean-temperature fluctuations influence hydrate stability in a region offshore West Svalbard where active gas venting has been observed. We model the transient behavior of the gas hydrate stability zone at 400-500 m water depth (mwd) in response to past temperature changes inferred from historical measurements and proxy data and we model future changes predicted by seven climate models and two climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We show that over the past 2000 year, a combination of annual and decadal temperature fluctuations could have triggered multiple hydrate-sourced methane emissions from seabed shallower than 400 mwd during episodes when the multidecadal average temperature was similar to that over the last century (˜2.6°C). These temperature fluctuations can explain current methane emissions at 400 mwd, but decades to centuries of ocean warming are required to generate emissions in water deeper than 420 m. In the venting area, future methane emissions are relatively insensitive to the choice of climate model and RCP scenario until 2050 year, but are more sensitive to the RCP scenario after 2050 year. By 2100 CE, we estimate an ocean uptake of 97-1050 TgC from marine Arctic hydrate-sourced methane emissions, which is 0.06-0.67% of the ocean uptake from anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the period 1750-2011.

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

Fertility, immigration, and the fight against climate change.

PubMed

Earl, Jake; Hickey, Colin; Rieder, Travis N

2017-10-01

Several philosophers have recently argued that policies aimed at reducing human fertility are a practical and morally justifiable way to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change. There is a powerful objection to such "population engineering" proposals: even if drastic fertility reductions are needed to prevent dangerous climate change, implementing those reductions would wreak havoc on the global economy, which would seriously undermine international antipoverty efforts. In this article, we articulate this economic objection to population engineering and show how it fails. We argue, first, that the economic objection paints an inaccurate picture of the complicated relationship between demographic change and economic growth, and second, that any untoward economic effects of fertility reduction can be mitigated with additional policies. Specifically, we argue that supplementing fertility reduction with policies that facilitate the emigration of younger people from developing nations to developed nations could allow for both global reductions in GHG emissions and continued economic stability. Further, we show that moral arguments against such unprecedented increases in immigration are unsuccessful. We conclude that population engineering is a practical and morally justifiable tool for addressing the twin evils of climate change and global poverty. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Phytoplankton Biogeography and Community Stability in the Ocean

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro; de Vargas, Colomban; Abrantes, Fátima; Falkowski, Paul G.

2010-01-01

Background Despite enormous environmental variability linked to glacial/interglacial climates of the Pleistocene, we have recently shown that marine diatom communities evolved slowly through gradual changes over the past 1.5 million years. Identifying the causes of this ecological stability is key for understanding the mechanisms that control the tempo and mode of community evolution. Methodology/Principal Findings If community assembly were controlled by local environmental selection rather than dispersal, environmental perturbations would change community composition, yet, this could revert once environmental conditions returned to previous-like states. We analyzed phytoplankton community composition across >104 km latitudinal transects in the Atlantic Ocean and show that local environmental selection of broadly dispersed species primarily controls community structure. Consistent with these results, three independent fossil records of marine diatoms over the past 250,000 years show cycles of community departure and recovery tightly synchronized with the temporal variations in Earth's climate. Conclusions/Significance Changes in habitat conditions dramatically alter community structure, yet, we conclude that the high dispersal of marine planktonic microbes erases the legacy of past environmental conditions, thereby decreasing the tempo of community evolution. PMID:20368810

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

PubMed

Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

2015-01-01

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fast Atmosphere-Ocean Model Runs with Large Changes in CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Rind, David H.; Colose, Christopher; Opstbaum, Roger F.

2013-01-01

How does climate sensitivity vary with the magnitude of climate forcing? This question was investigated with the use of a modified coupled atmosphere-ocean model, whose stability was improved so that the model would accommodate large radiative forcings yet be fast enough to reach rapid equilibrium. Experiments were performed in which atmospheric CO2 was multiplied by powers of 2, from 1/64 to 256 times the 1950 value. From 8 to 32 times, the 1950 CO2, climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 reaches 8 C due to increases in water vapor absorption and cloud top height and to reductions in low level cloud cover. As CO2 amount increases further, sensitivity drops as cloud cover and planetary albedo stabilize. No water vapor-induced runaway greenhouse caused by increased CO2 was found for the range of CO2 examined. With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value, runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near 30 C.

Fossils harbor climate clues and fuel debate over glacier stability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

At the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf near McMurdo Station in Antarctica, scientists have discovered fossils of well preserved wood and a mixture of microscopic marine organisms, dating from the Eocene epoch. This discovery promises significant clues to the onset of glaciation in Antarctica. Geologists believe that this discovery may shed light on Antarctica's link to world climate and help predict future climatic change. Debate centers around when glaciation first became extensive, 15 or 20 million years ago, and whether or not the ice sheet was dynamic and responsive to small fluctuations in climate or stable and able tomore » lock up massive amounts of the world's water. 7 refs.« less

Sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to climatic and anthropogenic changes: The basin and range, American Southwest and Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, N. B.; Chacon, A.; Dahm, Clifford N.; Hostetler, S.W.; Lind, O.T.; Starkweather, P.L.; Wurtsbaugh, W.W.

1997-01-01

Variability and unpredictability are characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems, hydrological patterns and climate of the largely dryland region that encompasses the Basin and Range, American Southwest and western Mexico. Neither hydrological nor climatological models for the region are sufficiently developed to describe the magnitude or direction of change in response to increased carbon dioxide; thus, an attempt to predict specific responses of aquatic ecosystems is premature. Instead, we focus on the sensitivity of rivers, streams, springs, wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes of the region to potential changes in climate, especially those inducing a change in hydrological patterns such as amount, timing and predictability of stream flow. The major sensitivities of aquatic ecosystems are their permanence and even existence in the face of potential reduced net basin supply of water, stability of geomorphological structure and riparian ecotones with alterations in disturbance regimes, and water quality changes resulting from a modified water balance. In all of these respects, aquatic ecosystems of the region are also sensitive to the extensive modifications imposed by human use of water resources, which underscores the difficulty of separating this type of anthropogenic change from climate change. We advocate a focus in future research on reconstruction and analysis of past climates and associated ecosystem characteristics, long-term studies to discriminate directional change vs. year to year variability (including evidence of aquatic ecosystem responses or sensitivity to extremes), and studies of ecosystems affected by human activity. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tracking climate change in oligotrophic mountain lakes: Recent hydrology and productivity synergies in Lago de Sanabria (NW Iberian Peninsula).

PubMed

Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Recio, Clemente; Vega, José Carlos; Valero-Garcés, Blas

2017-07-15

Mountain lakes are particularly sensitive to global change as their oligotrophic conditions may be rapidly altered after reaching an ecological threshold, due to increasing human impact and climate change. Sanabria Lake, the largest mountain lake in the Iberian Peninsula and with a recent history of increased human impact in its watershed, provides an opportunity to investigate recent trends in an oligotrophic, hydrologically-open mountain lake, and their relationship with climate, hydrological variability and human pressure. We conducted the first systematic and detailed survey of stable isotope compositions of Sanabria Lake and Tera River together with limnological analyses during 2009-2011. δ 18 O lakewater and δD lakewater seasonal fluctuations are strongly linked to river discharges, and follow the monthly mean isotopic composition of precipitation, which is controlled by NAO dynamics. δ 13 C POM and δ 13 C DIC revealed higher contribution of allochthonous organic matter in winter and spring due to higher river inflow and lower primary productivity. Increased phytoplankton biomass in late summer correlated significantly with higher pH and Chl-a, and higher nutrient input and lower river inflow. However, the small δ 13 C POM seasonal amplitude underlines the stability of the oligotrophic conditions and the isotopic variation in POM and DIC reflect small seasonal fluctuations mostly as a consequence of strong throughflow. The stability of hydrology and productivity patterns is consistent with Holocene and last millennium reconstructions of past limnological changes in Sanabria Lake. The results of this study indicate that trophic state in this hydrologically-open mountain lake is strongly controlled by climate variability, but recent changes in human-land uses have increased sediment delivery and nutrients supply to the lake and have to be considered for management policies. Monitoring surveys including isotope techniques provide snapshots of modern isotope variability, and serve as a benchmark for assessing the environmental impacts of future developments and long-term climate changes in mountain lakes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ant Diversity and Distribution along Elevation Gradients in the Australian Wet Tropics: The Importance of Seasonal Moisture Stability.

PubMed

Nowrouzi, Somayeh; Andersen, Alan N; Macfadyen, Sarina; Staunton, Kyran M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Robson, Simon K A

2016-01-01

The threat of anthropogenic climate change has seen a renewed focus on understanding contemporary patterns of species distribution. This is especially the case for the biota of tropical mountains, because tropical species often have particularly narrow elevational ranges and there are high levels of short-range endemism. Here we describe geographic patterns of ant diversity and distribution in the World Heritage-listed rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT), revealing seasonal moisture stability to be an important environmental correlate of elevational patterns of species composition. We sampled ants in leaf litter, on the litter surface and on tree trunks at 26 sites from six subregions spanning five degrees of latitude and elevation ranges from 100-1,300 m. A total of 296 species from 63 genera were recorded. Species richness showed a slight peak at mid elevations, and did not vary significantly with latitude. Species composition varied substantially between subregions, and many species have highly localised distributions. There was very marked species turnover with elevation, with a particularly striking compositional disjunction between 600 m and 800 m at each subregion. This disjunction coincides with a strong environmental threshold of seasonal stability in moisture associated with cloud 'stripping'. Our study therefore provides further support for climatic stability as a potential mechanism underlying patterns of diversity. The average height of orographic cloud layers is predicted to rise under global warming, and associated shifts in seasonal moisture stability may exacerbate biotic change caused by rising temperature alone.

The relative role of climate change and human activities in the desertification process in Yulin region of northwest China.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Sun, Jian-Guo; Han, Hui; Yan, Chang-Zhen

2012-12-01

To overcome the shortcoming of existing studies, this paper put forward a statistical vegetation-climate relationship model with integrated temporal and spatial characteristics. Based on this model, we quantitatively discriminated on the grid scale the relative role of climate change and human activities in the desertification dynamics from 1986 to 2000 in Yulin region. Yulin region's desertification development occurred mainly in the southern hilly and gully area and its reverse in the northwest sand and marsh area. This spatial pattern was especially evident and has never changed thoroughly. From the first time section (1986-1990) to the second (1991-1995), the desertification was developing as a whole, and either in the desertification development district or in the reverse district human activities' role was always occupying an overwhelmingly dominant position (they were 98.7% and 101.4%, respectively), the role of climate change was extremely slight. From the second time section (1991-1995) to the third (1996-2000), the desertification process was reaching a state of stability, in the desertification development district the role of climate change was nearly equivalent to that of human activities (they were 46.2% and 53.8% separately), and yet in the desertification reverse district, the role of human activities came up to 119.0%, the role of climate change amounted to -19.0%. In addition, the relative role of climate change and human activities possessed great spatial heterogeneity. The above conclusion rather coincides with the qualitative analysis in many literatures, which indicates that this method has certain rationality and can be utilized as a reference for the monitoring and studying of desertification in other areas.

Hadley circulation strength and width in a wide range of simulated climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostino, R.; Adam, O.; Lionello, P.; Schneider, T.

2016-12-01

Understanding how the Hadley circulation (HC) responds to global warming is crucial because it determines climatic features such as the seasonal migration of the ITCZ, the extent of subtropical arid regions and the strength of the monsoons. Here we analyse changes in the HC strength and width in the set of PMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations, spanning a wide range of climate conditions from Last Glacial Maximum to future RCP projections. The large climate change signal emerging from comparing paleoclimate simulations to future scenarios offers the possibility to analyse the corresponding HC change and to investigate its response to large variations of the factors controlling it. The results confirm that the HC generally expands and weakens as the global mean temperature increases, consistent with results from other studies. Furthermore, we find an asymmetric HC response between the northern and southern hemisphere in the rate at which the HC edges shift poleward with global warming. The mid-latitude static stability and meridional temperature gradients affect the HC edges to different degrees in the two hemispheres. In the southern hemisphere the increase in the mid-latitude static stability is associated with a poleward shift of the southern HC edge, while in the northern hemisphere, the reduction in the meridional temperature gradient plays the dominant role in the poleward shift of the northern HC edge. The two hemispheres also exhibit very different changes of HC strength. The HC weakening with global warming occurs primarily in the northern hemisphere, while there is no change, or even a slighter weakening in the southern hemisphere. The HC changes also have pronounced seasonal signatures. The maximum poleward shift of the northern HC edge occurs one month later (from August to September) in future global warming scenarios than when comparing pre-industrial simulations with the Last Glacial Maximum.

Estimating Amazonian rainforest stability and the likelihood for large-scale forest dieback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Jupp, Tim; Ostberg, Sebastian; Heinke, Jens; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-05-01

Annually, tropical forests process approximately 18 Pg of carbon through respiration and photosynthesis - more than twice the rate of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. Current climate change may be transforming this carbon sink into a carbon source by changing forest structure and dynamics. Increasing temperatures and potentially decreasing precipitation and thus prolonged drought stress may lead to increasing physiological stress and reduced productivity for trees. Resulting decreases in evapotranspiration and therefore convective precipitation could further accelerate drought conditions and destabilize the tropical ecosystem as a whole and lead to an 'Amazon forest dieback'. The projected direction and intensity of climate change vary widely within the region and between different scenarios from climate models (GCMs). In the scope of a World Bank-funded study, we assessed the 24 General Circulation Models (GCMs) evaluated in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) with respect to their capability to reproduce present-day climate in the Amazon basin using a Bayesian approach. With this approach, greater weight is assigned to the models that simulate well the annual cycle of rainfall. We then use the resulting weightings to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes as simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJmL) to estimate the risk of potential Amazon rainforest dieback. Our results show contrasting changes in forest biomass throughout five regions of northern South America: If photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency is enhanced by CO2, biomass increases across all five regions. However, if CO2-fertilisation is assumed to be absent or less important, then substantial dieback occurs in some scenarios and thus, the risk of forest dieback is considerably higher. Particularly affected are regions in the central Amazon basin. The range of potential biomass change arising from the weighting of rainfall patterns is smaller than the uncertainty arising from CO2-fertilisation effects, which highlights the importance of reducing the uncertainties in the direct effects of CO2 on tropical ecosystems. Strong biomass changes also imply changes in forest structure and thus, forest stability. Our results display shifts in forest composition from closed rainforest to more open forest or even shrubland. Our probability-based risk analysis could be used to advise regional forest protection.

Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Effective Teacher Practice on the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Sinatra, G. M.; Lombardi, D.

2013-12-01

Climate change education programs in the United States seek to promote a deeper understanding of the science of climate change, behavior change and stewardship, and support informed decision making by individuals, organizations, and institutions--all of which are summarized under the term 'climate literacy.' The ultimate goal of climate literacy is to enable actors to address climate change, both in terms of stabilizing and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, but also an increased capacity to prepare for the consequences and opportunities of climate change. However, the long-term nature of climate change and the required societal response involve the changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues which presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). This session will explore how the United States educational efforts focus on three distinct, but related, areas: the science of climate change, the human-climate interaction, and using climate education to promote informed decision making. Each of these approaches are represented in the Atlas of Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2007) and in the conceptual framework for science education developed at the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) has been called for by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, 2013), an innovative and research based way to address climate change education within the decentralized U.S. education system. However, the promise of the NGSS is that students will have more time to build mastery on the subjects, but the form of that instructional practice has been show to be critical. Research has show that effective instructional activities that promote evaluation of evidence improve students' understanding and acceptance toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change (Lombardi, Sinatra, & Nussbaum, 2013). This study and many others show the critical role instructional practice plays in the development of a climate literate nation. Climate change communication faces many challenges, but federal agencies, civil society, and individuals have invested in numerous initiatives to develop a climate-literate citizenry. In the NRC Report America's Climate Choices the authors find that 'climate change is difficult to understand by its very nature,' however, 'education and communication are among the most powerful tools the nation has to bring hidden hazards to public attention, understanding, and action.' This session will explore how the federal science mission agencies and their partners are working to harness these tools and use the best available research to develop programs and partnership that build on the promise of the NGSS. When citizens have knowledge of the causes, likelihood, and severity of climate impacts, as well as of the range, cost, and efficacy of options to adapt to impacts, they are more prepared to effectively address the risks and opportunities

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE PAGES

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; ...

2016-04-25

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

PubMed Central

Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lewis, Simon L.; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Erwin, Terry L.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

PubMed

Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

2016-01-19

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate.

PubMed

Chapin, F Stuart; Lovecraft, Amy L; Zavaleta, Erika S; Nelson, Joanna; Robards, Martin D; Kofinas, Gary P; Trainor, Sarah F; Peterson, Garry D; Huntington, Henry P; Naylor, Rosamond L

2006-11-07

Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously.

Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

2014-12-01

The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

Crop responses to climatic variation

PubMed Central

Porter, John R; Semenov, Mikhail A

2005-01-01

The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution. This paper demonstrates the impacts of climate variability for crop production in a number of crops. Increasing temperature and precipitation variability increases the risks to yield, as shown via computer simulation and experimental studies. The issue of food quality has not been given sufficient importance when assessing the impact of climate change for food and this is addressed. Using simulation models of wheat, the concentration of grain protein is shown to respond to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation events. The paper concludes with discussion of adaptation possibilities for crops in response to drought and argues that characters that enable better exploration of the soil and slower leaf canopy expansion could lead to crop higher transpiration efficiency. PMID:16433091

Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

2015-12-01

Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to warming at northern latitudes.

Soil Water Holding Capacity Mitigates Downside Risk and Volatility in US Rainfed Maize: Time to Invest in Soil Organic Matter?

PubMed Central

Williams, Alwyn; Hunter, Mitchell C.; Kammerer, Melanie; Kane, Daniel A.; Jordan, Nicholas R.; Mortensen, David A.; Smith, Richard G.; Snapp, Sieglinde

2016-01-01

Yield stability is fundamental to global food security in the face of climate change, and better strategies are needed for buffering crop yields against increased weather variability. Regional- scale analyses of yield stability can support robust inferences about buffering strategies for widely-grown staple crops, but have not been accomplished. We present a novel analytical approach, synthesizing 2000–2014 data on weather and soil factors to quantify their impact on county-level maize yield stability in four US states that vary widely in these factors (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Yield stability is quantified as both ‘downside risk’ (minimum yield potential, MYP) and ‘volatility’ (temporal yield variability). We show that excessive heat and drought decreased mean yields and yield stability, while higher precipitation increased stability. Soil water holding capacity strongly affected yield volatility in all four states, either directly (Minnesota and Pennsylvania) or indirectly, via its effects on MYP (Illinois and Michigan). We infer that factors contributing to soil water holding capacity can help buffer maize yields against variable weather. Given that soil water holding capacity responds (within limits) to agronomic management, our analysis highlights broadly relevant management strategies for buffering crop yields against climate variability, and informs region-specific strategies. PMID:27560666

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework provide a good approximation for the median, and the lower and upper bound of 90% probability distribution of 21st century climate change. Five member ensembles were carried out for each choice of parameters using different initial conditions. With these simulations, we investigate the role of emissions scenarios (climate policies), the global climate response (climate sensitivity) and natural variability (initial conditions) on the uncertainty in future climate changes over Northern Eurasia. A particular emphasis is made on future changes in extreme events, including frost days, extreme summer temperature and extreme summer and winter precipitation.

European Master-Doctorate Course on "Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, R.-A.

2009-04-01

« Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change », European Master-Doctorate Course, Council of Europe, Strasbourg 7-11 September 2009 The character of Cultural Heritage is closely related to the climate, and the urban landscape and the built heritage have been designed with the local climate in mind. The stability of Cultural Heritage is, therefore, closely tied to its interactions with the ground and the atmosphere. Climate Change is thus expected to have either catastrophic or subtle effects on Cultural Heritage materials and Cultural Landscapes. The major aim of the 2009 Strasbourg Course is to ensure that young European students are informed on these important problems and will be able in the future to undertake rigorous ongoing scientific monitoring of changes in conditions of Cultural Heritage. The Programme of the Course will cover the following topics: • Heritage Climatology • Principles of Mitigation and Adaptation of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change • Impact of Climate Change on building structures • Dose-Response and Damage Functions for materials in a Changing Climate • Modelling sea salts transport and deposition • Modelling wetting and drying of historic buildings • Impact of Climate Change on building materials: stone, mortar, modern glass, stained glass windows • Impact of Climate Change on organic materials • Biological impact of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage • Sea level rise models and possible application to Cultural Heritage • Past, present and future for Venice • The policies and action plans of International Organisations (Council of Europe, UNESCO, ICCROM) The Course is addressed to young people with scientific background: physicists, chemists, geologists, biologists, engineers, because of the high scientific level of the background required to follow the lectures. Teaching will be delivered in English without any simultaneous translation. The teachers belong to European Universities, National Research Centres and International Organisations. There are no registration fees. Travel to Strasbourg and accommodation will be taken in charge by the Council of Europe after the selection of applications. Deadline for application: 15 June 2009. Information and application forms: • European University Centre for Cultural Heritage, Villa Rufolo, I-84010-Ravello, Italy, http://www.univeur.org univeur@univeur.org or Council of Europe, EUR-OPA, DG IV, F-67075-Strasbourg Cedex, http://www.coe.int/europarisks europa.risk@coe.int

Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M. W.

2015-12-01

The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world.

PubMed

Pike, David A

2014-01-01

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

2017-10-01

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the species level, which will reduce the risk of extinction.

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

2017-09-01

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

The MIT IGSM-CAM framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2011-12-01

The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) version 2.3 is an intermediate complexity fully coupled earth system model that allows simulation of critical feedbacks among its various components, including the atmosphere, ocean, land, urban processes and human activities. A fundamental feature of the IGSM2.3 is the ability to modify its climate parameters: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. As such, the IGSM2.3 provides an efficient tool for generating probabilistic distribution functions of climate parameters using optimal fingerprint diagnostics. A limitation of the IGSM2.3 is its zonal-mean atmosphere model that does not permit regional climate studies. For this reason, the MIT IGSM2.3 was linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 and new modules were developed and implemented in CAM in order to modify its climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing to match that of the IGSM. The IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and innovative framework to study regional climate change where climate parameters can be modified to span the range of uncertainty and various emissions scenarios can be tested. This paper presents results from the cloud radiative adjustment method used to modify CAM's climate sensitivity. We also show results from 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (a median "business as usual" scenario where no policy is implemented after 2012 and a policy scenario where greenhouse-gas are stabilized at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent concentrations by 2100) and three sets of climate parameters. The three values of climate sensitivity chosen are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the observed 20th century climate change with simulations by the IGSM with a wide range of climate parameters values. The associated aerosol forcing values were chosen to ensure a good agreement of the simulations with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentrations of sulfate aerosols significantly decrease over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these six simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

INFILTRATION ON MOUNTAIN SLOPES: A COMPARISON OF THREE ENVIRONMENTS. (R825157)

EPA Science Inventory

Water is well established as a major driver of the geomorphic change that eventually reduces mountains to lower relief landscapes. Nonetheless, within the altitudinal limits of continuous vegetation in humid climates, water is also an essential factor in slope stability. In th...

Selection and Validation of Reference Genes for Accurate RT-qPCR Data Normalization in Coffea spp. under a Climate Changes Context of Interacting Elevated [CO2] and Temperature

PubMed Central

Martins, Madlles Q.; Fortunato, Ana S.; Rodrigues, Weverton P.; Partelli, Fábio L.; Campostrini, Eliemar; Lidon, Fernando C.; DaMatta, Fábio M.; Ramalho, José C.; Ribeiro-Barros, Ana I.

2017-01-01

World coffee production has faced increasing challenges associated with ongoing climatic changes. Several studies, which have been almost exclusively based on temperature increase, have predicted extensive reductions (higher than half by 2,050) of actual coffee cropped areas. However, recent studies showed that elevated [CO2] can strongly mitigate the negative impacts of heat stress at the physiological and biochemical levels in coffee leaves. In addition, it has also been shown that coffee genotypes can successfully cope with temperatures above what has been traditionally accepted. Altogether, this information suggests that the real impact of climate changes on coffee growth and production could be significantly lower than previously estimated. Gene expression studies are an important tool to unravel crop acclimation ability, demanding the use of adequate reference genes. We have examined the transcript stability of 10 candidate reference genes to normalize RT-qPCR expression studies using a set of 24 cDNAs from leaves of three coffee genotypes (CL153, Icatu, and IPR108), grown under 380 or 700 μL CO2 L−1, and submitted to increasing temperatures from 25/20°C (day/night) to 42/34°C. Samples were analyzed according to genotype, [CO2], temperature, multiple stress interaction ([CO2], temperature) and total stress interaction (genotype, [CO2], and temperature). The transcript stability of each gene was assessed through a multiple analytical approach combining the Coeficient of Variation method and three algorithms (geNorm, BestKeeper, NormFinder). The transcript stability varied according to the type of stress for most genes, but the consensus ranking obtained with RefFinder, classified MDH as the gene with the highest mRNA stability to a global use, followed by ACT and S15, whereas α-TUB and CYCL showed the least stable mRNA contents. Using the coffee expression profiles of the gene encoding the large-subunit of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RLS), results from the in silico aggregation and experimental validation of the best number of reference genes showed that two reference genes are adequate to normalize RT-qPCR data. Altogether, this work highlights the importance of an adequate selection of reference genes for each single or combined experimental condition and constitutes the basis to accurately study molecular responses of Coffea spp. in a context of climate changes and global warming. PMID:28326094

Selection and Validation of Reference Genes for Accurate RT-qPCR Data Normalization in Coffea spp. under a Climate Changes Context of Interacting Elevated [CO2] and Temperature.

PubMed

Martins, Madlles Q; Fortunato, Ana S; Rodrigues, Weverton P; Partelli, Fábio L; Campostrini, Eliemar; Lidon, Fernando C; DaMatta, Fábio M; Ramalho, José C; Ribeiro-Barros, Ana I

2017-01-01

World coffee production has faced increasing challenges associated with ongoing climatic changes. Several studies, which have been almost exclusively based on temperature increase, have predicted extensive reductions (higher than half by 2,050) of actual coffee cropped areas. However, recent studies showed that elevated [CO 2 ] can strongly mitigate the negative impacts of heat stress at the physiological and biochemical levels in coffee leaves. In addition, it has also been shown that coffee genotypes can successfully cope with temperatures above what has been traditionally accepted. Altogether, this information suggests that the real impact of climate changes on coffee growth and production could be significantly lower than previously estimated. Gene expression studies are an important tool to unravel crop acclimation ability, demanding the use of adequate reference genes. We have examined the transcript stability of 10 candidate reference genes to normalize RT-qPCR expression studies using a set of 24 cDNAs from leaves of three coffee genotypes (CL153, Icatu, and IPR108), grown under 380 or 700 μL CO 2 L -1 , and submitted to increasing temperatures from 25/20°C (day/night) to 42/34°C. Samples were analyzed according to genotype, [CO 2 ], temperature, multiple stress interaction ([CO 2 ], temperature) and total stress interaction (genotype, [CO 2 ], and temperature). The transcript stability of each gene was assessed through a multiple analytical approach combining the Coeficient of Variation method and three algorithms (geNorm, BestKeeper, NormFinder). The transcript stability varied according to the type of stress for most genes, but the consensus ranking obtained with RefFinder, classified MDH as the gene with the highest mRNA stability to a global use, followed by ACT and S15 , whereas α -TUB and CYCL showed the least stable mRNA contents. Using the coffee expression profiles of the gene encoding the large-subunit of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase ( RLS ), results from the in silico aggregation and experimental validation of the best number of reference genes showed that two reference genes are adequate to normalize RT-qPCR data. Altogether, this work highlights the importance of an adequate selection of reference genes for each single or combined experimental condition and constitutes the basis to accurately study molecular responses of Coffea spp. in a context of climate changes and global warming.

Steady-state solutions of a diffusive energy-balance climate model and their stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.

1975-01-01

A diffusive energy-balance climate model, governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation, was studied. Three positive steady-state solutions of this equation are found; they correspond to three possible climates of our planet: an interglacial (nearly identical to the present climate), a glacial, and a completely ice-covered earth. Models similar to the main one are considered, and the number of their steady states was determined. All the models have albedo continuously varying with latitude and temperature, and entirely diffusive horizontal heat transfer. The stability under small perturbations of the main model's climates was investigated. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the present climate and the deep freeze are stable, whereas the model's glacial is unstable. The dependence was examined of the number of steady states and of their stability on the average solar radiation.

Operational Production of the Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable as Part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerot, C.; Danckaert, T.; van Gent, J.; Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D. G.; Errera, Q.; Spurr, R. J. D.; Garane, K.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.; Verhoelst, T.; Granville, J.; Lambert, J. C.; Van Roozendael, M.

2017-12-01

Total ozone is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) operationally produced within the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which aims at providing the geophysical information needed to monitor and study our climate system. The C3S total ozone processing chain relies on algorithmic developments realized for the last six years as part of the ESA's Ozone Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci) project. The C3S Climate Data Store currently contains a total ozone record based on observations from the nadir UV-Vis hyperspectral spectrometers GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/Envisat, GOME-2/Metop-A, GOME-2/Metop-B and OMI/Aura, spanning more than 23 years.Individual level-2 datasets were generated with the retrieval algorithm GODFIT (GOME-type Direct FITting). The retrievals are based on a non-linear least squares adjustment of reflectances simulated with radiative transfer tools from the LIDORT suite, to the measured spectra in the Huggins bands (325-335 nm). The inter-sensor consistency and the time stability of those data sets is significantly enhanced with the application of a soft-calibration procedure to the level-1 reflectances, in which GOME and OMI are used together as a long-term reference. Level-2 data sets are then combined to produce the level-3 GOME-type Total Ozone (GTO-ECV) record consisting of homogenized 1°x1° monthly mean grids. The merging procedure corrects for subsisting inter-satellite biases and temporal drifts. Some developments for minimizing sampling errors have also been recently investigated and will be discussed. Total ozone level-2 and level-3 data sets are regularly verified and validated by independent measurements both from space (independent algorithms and/or instruments) and ground (Brewer/Dobson/SAOZ) and their excellent quality and stability, as well as their consistency with other long-term total ozone data sets will be illustrated here. In future, in addition to be continuously extended in time, the C3S total ozone record will also incorporate new sensors such as OMPS aboard Suomi NPP or TROPOMI/S5p.

A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks.

PubMed

Plagányi, Éva E; van Putten, Ingrid; Thébaud, Olivier; Hobday, Alistair J; Innes, James; Lim-Camacho, Lilly; Norman-López, Ana; Bustamante, Rodrigo H; Farmery, Anna; Fleming, Aysha; Frusher, Stewart; Green, Bridget; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Pecl, Gretta; Pascoe, Sean; Schrobback, Peggy; Thomas, Linda

2014-01-01

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.

Slopes, Fans, Terraces and their Soils - A three Systems Approach for Estimating Future Climate and Land-Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voelkel, J.; Bens, O.; Eden, M.; Ramisch, A.

2015-12-01

Semiarid and arid landscapes in Namibia and the South African Republic (RAS) are sensitive to changes in the vegetation that covers and protects the surface. Climatic changes or anthropogenic influences such as farming, grazing and ploughing can degrade the landscape if the natural stability of the landscape and its capacity potential is exceeded. This will directly cause sediment mobilisation and deposition. We intend to examine the connections between earth-surface processes on slopes such as sheet wash, colluvial sediment transport, and eolian movements and their links to the fluvial system via three major geomorphic forms: slopes, fans, and terraces. This novel approach will be undertaken at three study sites in Namibia and RSA In their combination the geomorphic forms have the potential of being high-resolution geoarchives of surface changes ranging from the local to the regional scale. The source and depositional environments of the sediments will be characterised and a chronology of the erosion and deposition within these three geomorphic systems will be established using absolute dating techniques. Thus, activity and stability phases will be worked out mainly for the last three centuries up to a maximum of ~ 1000 years. This offers the possibility to compare the time scales with low human impact to those with intensive human impact (farming/grazing) on the landscape together with known climatic variation and analyze major forcings of the formation of slopes-fans-terraces-systems. Our results will provide answers on how much ecosystem services are and have been influenced either by climate or land use changes in the example regions, to better enable the decision and policy makers to select better managerial options and development plans. - The project "GeoArchives" is funded within the "SPACES" program (Science Partnerships for the Assessment of Complex Earth System Processes) by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research BMBF.

A Quantitative Metric to Identify Critical Elements within Seafood Supply Networks

PubMed Central

Plagányi, Éva E.; van Putten, Ingrid; Thébaud, Olivier; Hobday, Alistair J.; Innes, James; Lim-Camacho, Lilly; Norman-López, Ana; Bustamante, Rodrigo H.; Farmery, Anna; Fleming, Aysha; Frusher, Stewart; Green, Bridget; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Pecl, Gretta; Pascoe, Sean; Schrobback, Peggy; Thomas, Linda

2014-01-01

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical. PMID:24633147

Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulledge, J. M.

2011-12-01

The science of climate change has convincingly demonstrated that human activities, including the release of greenhouse gases, land-surface changes, particle emissions, and redistribution of water, are changing global and regional climates. Consequently, key institutions are now concerned about the potential social impacts of climate change. For example, the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report from the U.S. Department of Defense states that "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." Meanwhile, insured losses from climate and weather-related natural disasters have risen dramatically over the past thirty years. Although these losses stem largely from socioeconomic trends, insurers are concerned that climate change could exacerbate this trend and render certain types of climate risk non-diversifiable. Meanwhile, the climate science community-broadly defined as physical, biological, and social scientists focused on some aspect of climate change-remains largely focused scholarly activities that are valued in the academy but not especially useful to decision makers. On the other hand, climate scientists who engage in policy discussions have generally permitted vested interests who support or oppose climate policies to frame the discussion of climate science within the policy arena. Such discussions focus on whether scientific uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to justify policy and the vested interests overstate or understate key uncertainties to support their own agendas. Consequently, the scientific community has become absorbed defending scientific findings to the near exclusion of developing novel tools to aid in risk-based decision-making. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established expressly for the purpose of informing governments, has largely been engaged in attempts to reduce unavoidable uncertainties rather than helping the world's governments define a science-based risk-management framework for climate security. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that "Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk." In risk management, key uncertainties guide action aimed at reducing risk and cannot be ignored or used to justify inaction. Security policies such as arms control and counter-terrorism demonstrate that high-impact outcomes matter to decision makers even if they are likely to be rare events. In spite of this fact, the long tail on the probability distribution of climate sensitivity was largely ignored by the climate science community until recently and its implications for decision making are still not receiving adequate attention. Informing risk management requires scientists to shift from a singular aversion to type I statistical error (i.e. false positive) to a balanced presentation of both type I error and type II error (i.e. false negative) when the latter may have serious consequences. Examples from national security, extreme weather, and economics illustrate these concepts.

The effect of climate on the phenology, acorn crop and radial increment of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in the middle Volga region, Tatarstan, Russia.

PubMed

Askeyev, O V; Tischin, D; Sparks, T H; Askeyev, I V

2005-03-01

Our data, collected in the extreme east of Europe, show that a significant biological effect of climate change has been experienced even in territories where temperature increase has been the lowest. This study documents the climatic response of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) growing near its north-eastern limits in Europe. It demonstrates the potential of oak trees in old-growth forest to act as proxy climate indicators. Many factors may influence the temporal stability of the growth-climate, acorn crop-climate and first leafing-climate relationships. Climate data, climatic fluctuations, reproduction, genetics and tree-age may relate to this instability. Our results stress that an increase in climate variability or climatic warming resulting from warmer winters or summers could affect the oak population in eastern Europe in a similar way to that in western Europe. These findings, from remnants of oak forest in the middle Volga region of Russia, allow a further understanding of how species could be affected by future climates.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paynter, D.; Frölicher, T. L.; Horowitz, L. W.; Silvers, L. G.

2018-02-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long-term change in global mean surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from short atmospheric simulations over a mixed layer ocean, or inferred using a linear regression over a short-time period of adjustment. We report the actual ECS from multimillenial simulations of two Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models (GCMs), ESM2M, and CM3 of 3.3 K and 4.8 K, respectively. Both values are 1 K higher than estimates for the same models reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change obtained by regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against temperature. This underestimate is mainly due to changes in the climate feedback parameter (-α) within the first century after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized. For both GCMs it is possible to estimate ECS with linear regression to within 0.3 K by increasing CO2 at 1% per year to doubling and using years 51-350 after CO2 is constant. We show that changes in -α differ between the two GCMs and are strongly tied to the changes in both vertical velocity at 500 hPa (ω500) and estimated inversion strength that the GCMs experience during the progression toward the equilibrium. This suggests that while cloud physics parametrizations are important for determining the strength of -α, the substantially different atmospheric state resulting from a changed sea surface temperature pattern may be of equal importance.

Energy flow and functional compensation in Great Basin small mammals under natural and anthropogenic environmental change

PubMed Central

Terry, Rebecca C.; Rowe, Rebecca J.

2015-01-01

Research on the ecological impacts of environmental change has primarily focused at the species level, leaving the responses of ecosystem-level properties like energy flow poorly understood. This is especially so over millennial timescales inaccessible to direct observation. Here we examine how energy flow within a Great Basin small mammal community responded to climate-driven environmental change during the past 12,800 y, and use this baseline to evaluate responses observed during the past century. Our analyses reveal marked stability in energy flow during rapid climatic warming at the terminal Pleistocene despite dramatic turnover in the distribution of mammalian body sizes and habitat-associated functional groups. Functional group turnover was strongly correlated with climate-driven changes in regional vegetation, with climate and vegetation change preceding energetic shifts in the small mammal community. In contrast, the past century has witnessed a substantial reduction in energy flow caused by an increase in energetic dominance of small-bodied species with an affinity for closed grass habitats. This suggests that modern changes in land cover caused by anthropogenic activities—particularly the spread of nonnative annual grasslands—has led to a breakdown in the compensatory dynamics of energy flow. Human activities are thus modifying the small mammal community in ways that differ from climate-driven expectations, resulting in an energetically novel ecosystem. Our study illustrates the need to integrate across ecological and temporal scales to provide robust insights for long-term conservation and management. PMID:26170294

Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: a multi-faceted approach.

PubMed

Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris

2014-09-01

Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40-96%; SGR range 0.03-1.5%) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28-34%) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23-34%). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a "resource pulse," allowing a sub-set of small char to "break through," thus setting the cycle in population structure.

Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: A multi-faceted approach.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris

2014-01-01

Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40–96 %; SGR range 0.03–1.5 %) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28–34 %) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23–34 %). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a “resource pulse,” allowing a sub-set of small char to “break through,” thus setting the cycle in population structure.

Climate change and the EU Water Framework Directive: how to deal with indirect effects of changes in hydrology on water quality and ecology?

PubMed

Heerdt, G N J Ter; Schep, S A; Janse, J H; Ouboter, M

2007-01-01

In order to set ecological goals and determine measures for the European Water Framework Directive, the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems should be estimated. It is thought that the complexity of lake ecosystems makes this effect inherently unpredictable. However, models that deal with this complexity are available and well calibrated and tested. In this study we use the ecosystem model PCLake to demonstrate how climate change might affect the ecological status of a shallow peaty lake in 2050. With the model PCLake, combined with a long-term water and nutrient balance, it is possible to describe adequately the present status of the lake. Simulations of future scenarios with increasing precipitation, evaporation and temperature, showed that climate change will lead to higher nutrient loadings. At the same time, it will lead to lower critical loadings. Together this might cause the lake to shift easier from a clear water to a turbid state. The amount of algae, expressed as the concentration Chl-a, will increase, as a consequence turbidity will increase. The outcome of this study; increasing stability of the turbid state of the lake, and thus the need for more drastic measures, is consistent with some earlier studies.

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

2016-01-01

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

Lateglacial landscape and vegetation change and the younger dryas climatic oscillation in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGlone, M. S.

Lateglacial sequences in New Zealand show progressive afforestation and landscape stabilization reflecting a warming climate. Between 14,500 BP and 11,500 BP, afforestation and landscape stability was achieved throughout most of the North Island and the northwest sector of the South Island. In the South Island, scrub and tree ferns were replacing previous grasslands in the east by 11,000 BP, and broadleaved forest was spreading in the west. No significant reversals of these trends occurred and afforestation was complete by 9500 BP. Glaciers of the high central part of the Southern Alps made a series of advances between 14,000 and 9000 BP Most of these advances are poorly dated but two moraines are of Younger Dryas age. Glacial advances in the face of the general Lateglacial warming trend may have been driven by stronger westerly winds increasing snowfall on high altitude névés, and by reduced ablation as a consequence of moist, cloudy, low insolation summers. The cause of the northern hemisphere Younger Dryas cooling is still uncertain, and expected Southern Hemisphere responses may differ according to the mechanism proposed for the cooling. Poor chronological resolution and apparent conflict between the various types of evidence for climatic change make detection of an unambiguous Younger Dryas in New Zealand problematical.

Ant Diversity and Distribution along Elevation Gradients in the Australian Wet Tropics: The Importance of Seasonal Moisture Stability

PubMed Central

Nowrouzi, Somayeh; Andersen, Alan N.; Macfadyen, Sarina; Staunton, Kyran M.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Robson, Simon K. A.

2016-01-01

The threat of anthropogenic climate change has seen a renewed focus on understanding contemporary patterns of species distribution. This is especially the case for the biota of tropical mountains, because tropical species often have particularly narrow elevational ranges and there are high levels of short-range endemism. Here we describe geographic patterns of ant diversity and distribution in the World Heritage-listed rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT), revealing seasonal moisture stability to be an important environmental correlate of elevational patterns of species composition. We sampled ants in leaf litter, on the litter surface and on tree trunks at 26 sites from six subregions spanning five degrees of latitude and elevation ranges from 100–1,300 m. A total of 296 species from 63 genera were recorded. Species richness showed a slight peak at mid elevations, and did not vary significantly with latitude. Species composition varied substantially between subregions, and many species have highly localised distributions. There was very marked species turnover with elevation, with a particularly striking compositional disjunction between 600 m and 800 m at each subregion. This disjunction coincides with a strong environmental threshold of seasonal stability in moisture associated with cloud ‘stripping’. Our study therefore provides further support for climatic stability as a potential mechanism underlying patterns of diversity. The average height of orographic cloud layers is predicted to rise under global warming, and associated shifts in seasonal moisture stability may exacerbate biotic change caused by rising temperature alone. PMID:27073848

Living Shoreline on Martha's Vineyard: Monitoring & Assessing Marsh Stabilization, Restoration Benefits, and Nitrogen Removal

EPA Science Inventory

Salt marshes provide a unique intertidal habitat between land and sea, making them one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth. Their ecosystem services are often undervalued, and are being degraded by multiple stressors such as human development and climate change...

Reforesting the Earth. Worldwatch Paper 83.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Postel, Sandra; Heise, Lori

This document deals with efforts aimed at reforesting large areas of degraded lands. It includes sections on: (1) tree cover trends; (2) fuelwood challenges of the future; (3) the need to supply industrial wood; (4) stabilizing soil and water resources; (5) forests and climate change; and (6) mobilization for reforestation. (TW)

Living Shorelines in New England: monitoring marsh stabilization, restoration benefits, and nitrogen removal

EPA Science Inventory

Salt marshes provide a unique intertidal habitat between land and sea, making them one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth. Their ecosystem services are often undervalued, and are being degraded by multiple stressors such as human development and climate change...

Multi-scale geospatial agroecosystem modeling: A case study on the influence of soil data resolution on carbon budget estimates

EPA Science Inventory

The development of effective measures to stabilize atmospheric 22 CO2 concentration and mitigate negative impacts of climate change requires accurate quantification of the spatial variation and magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) flux. However, the spatial pattern and strengt...

Fossils reject climate change as the cause of extinction of Caribbean bats

PubMed Central

Soto-Centeno, J. Angel; Steadman, David W.

2015-01-01

We combined novel radiocarbon dates of bat fossils with time-scaled ecological niche models (ENM) to study bat extinctions in the Caribbean. Radiocarbon-dated fossils show that late Quaternary losses of bat populations took place during the late Holocene (<4 ka) rather than late Pleistocene (>10 ka). All bat radiocarbon dates from Abaco (Bahamas) that represent extirpated populations are younger than 4 ka. We include data on six bat species, three of which are Caribbean endemics, and include nectarivores as well as insectivores. Climate-based ENMs from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present reflect overall stability in distributions, with suitable climatic habitat being present over time. In the absence of radiocarbon dates, bat extinctions had been presumed to take place during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 10 ka). Now we see that extirpation of bats on these tropical islands is more complex than previously thought and primarily postdates the major climate changes that took place during the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition. PMID:25610991

Fossils reject climate change as the cause of extinction of Caribbean bats.

PubMed

Soto-Centeno, J Angel; Steadman, David W

2015-01-22

We combined novel radiocarbon dates of bat fossils with time-scaled ecological niche models (ENM) to study bat extinctions in the Caribbean. Radiocarbon-dated fossils show that late Quaternary losses of bat populations took place during the late Holocene (<4 ka) rather than late Pleistocene (>10 ka). All bat radiocarbon dates from Abaco (Bahamas) that represent extirpated populations are younger than 4 ka. We include data on six bat species, three of which are Caribbean endemics, and include nectarivores as well as insectivores. Climate-based ENMs from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present reflect overall stability in distributions, with suitable climatic habitat being present over time. In the absence of radiocarbon dates, bat extinctions had been presumed to take place during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 10 ka). Now we see that extirpation of bats on these tropical islands is more complex than previously thought and primarily postdates the major climate changes that took place during the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition.

Amazon collapse in the next century: exploring the sensitivity to climate and model formulation uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B.; Collins, M.; Harris, G.; Chris, H.; Jones, C.

2007-12-01

A number of recent studies have highlighted the risk of abrupt dieback of the Amazon Rain Forest as the result of climate changes over the next century. The recent 2005 Amazon drought brought wider acceptance of the idea that that climate drivers will play a significant role in future rain forest stability, yet that stability is still subject to considerable degree of uncertainty. We present a study which seeks to explore some of the underlying uncertainties both in the climate drivers of dieback and in the terrestrial land surface formulation used in GCMs. We adopt a perturbed physics approach which forms part of a wider project which is covered in an accompanying abstract submitted to the multi-model ensembles session. We first couple the same interactive land surface model to a number of different versions of the Hadley Centre atmosphere-ocean model that exhibit a wide range of different physical climate responses in the future. The rainforest extent is shown to collapse in all model cases but the timing of the collapse is dependent on the magnitude of the climate drivers. In the second part, we explore uncertainties in the terrestrial land surface model using the perturbed physics ensemble approach, perturbing uncertain parameters which have an important role in the vegetation and soil response. Contrasting the two approaches enables a greater understanding of the relative importance of climatic and land surface model uncertainties in Amazon dieback.

Do territorial butterflies show a macroecological fighting pattern in response to environmental stability?

PubMed

Peixoto, Paulo Enrique Cardoso; Medina, Anderson Matos; Mendoza-Cuenca, Luis

2014-11-01

The territorial defense of mating sites by males should be favored when female monopolization is possible. Such monopolization should occur in species in which females emerge asynchronously, since males may have time to copulate with one female before the arrival of other. However, regions with smaller reproductive windows should promote higher synchronicity of female emergence, generating a predictable macroecological pattern associated to the rewards from territorial defense. In this study we evaluated the hypothesis that territorial male butterflies should invest more in fighting in species that occur in areas with stable climatic conditions that should present longer reproductive windows. We compiled studies reporting mean butterfly fighting times, mean trait differences among winners and losers and local Köppen climatic classification (a surrogate for climatic stability). We found that males from butterfly species located in areas with stable climatic conditions fight for longer times. However, although winners were stronger than intruders only in areas with intermediate climatic conditions, there was a marked variation among winner-loser comparisons in species in areas with stable climatic conditions. We conclude that males from butterfly species that occur in areas with stable climatic regimes invest more in fighting due to the higher payoffs accrued with territorial defense, but that such investment does not change the effect of trait asymmetries in settling territorial conflicts. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Special Issue:Neotropical Behaviour. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong

The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota,more » Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially underestimated the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes.« less

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

2016-04-01

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

2013-12-01

Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

How will the tundra-taiga interface respond to climate change?

PubMed

Skre, Oddvar; Baxter, Robert; Crawford, Robert M M; Callaghan, Terry V; Fedorkov, Alexey

2002-08-01

The intuitive and logical answer to the question of how the tundra-taiga interface will react to global warming is that it should move north and this is mirrored by many models of potential treeline migration. Northward movement may be the eventual outcome if climatic warming persists over centuries or millennia. However, closer examination of the tundra-taiga interface across its circumpolar extent reveals a more complex situation. The regional climatic history of the tundra-taiga interface is highly varied, and consequently it is to be expected that the forest tundra boundary zone will respond differently to climate change depending on local variations in climate, evolutionary history, soil development, and hydrology. Investigations reveal considerable stability at present in the position of the treeline and while there may be a long-term advance northwards there are oceanic regions where climatic warming may result in a retreat southwards due to increased bog development. Reinforcing this trend is an increasing human impact, particularly in the forest tundra of Russia, which forces the limit of the forested areas southwards. Local variations will therefore require continued observation and research, as they will be of considerable importance economically as well as for ecology and conservation.

Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

2008-11-13

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.

Drought-induced starvation of aardvarks in the Kalahari: an indirect effect of climate change.

PubMed

Rey, Benjamin; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan; Meyer, Leith C R; Hetem, Robyn S

2017-07-01

Aardvarks ( Orycteropus afer ) are elusive burrowing mammals, predominantly nocturnal and distributed widely throughout Africa except for arid deserts. Their survival may be threatened by climate change via direct and indirect effects of increasing heat and aridity. To measure their current physiological plasticity, we implanted biologgers into six adult aardvarks resident in the semi-arid Kalahari. Following a particularly dry and hot summer, five of the study aardvarks and 11 other aardvarks at the study site died. Body temperature records revealed homeothermy (35.4-37.2°C) initially, but heterothermy increased progressively through the summer, with declining troughs in the nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature reaching as low as 25°C before death, likely due to starvation. Activity patterns shifted from the normal nocturnal to a diurnal mode. Our results do not bode well for the future of aardvarks facing climate change. Extirpation of aardvarks, which play a key role as ecosystem engineers, may disrupt stability of African ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).

One Strategy for Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Change Communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romm, J.

2011-12-01

Future impacts of climate change are invariably presented with a very wide range of impacts reflecting two different sets of uncertainties. The first concerns our uncertainty about precisely how much greenhouse gas emissions humanity will emit into the atmosphere. The second concerns our uncertainty about precisely what impact those emissions will have on the climate. By failing to distinguish between these two types of uncertainties, climate scientists have not clearly explained to the public and policymakers what the scientific literature suggests is likely to happen if we don't substantially alter our current emissions path. Indeed, much of climate communications has been built around describing the range of impacts from emissions paths that are increasingly implausible given political and technological constraints, such as a stabilization at 450 or 550 parts per million atmospheric of carbon dioxide. For the past decade, human emissions of greenhouse gases have trended near the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions paths that reach 800 ppm or even 1000 ppm. The current policies of the two biggest emitters, the United States and China, coupled with the ongoing failure of international negotiations to come to an agreement on restricting emissions, suggests that recent trends will continue for the foreseeable future. This in turn suggests that greater clarity in climate change communications could be achieved by more clearly explaining to the public what the scientific literature suggests the range of impacts are for our current high emissions path. This also suggests that more focus should be given in the scientific literature to better constraining the range of impacts from the high emissions scenarios.

Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover.

PubMed

Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

2015-12-01

To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time-decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity.

Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main coniferous species for a sustainable forest management in the context of climate change), financed by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, grant number PN-II-PC-PCCA-2013-4-0695.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

PubMed

Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Climate and Physical Disturbance Effects on the Spectral Signatures of Biological Soil Crusts: Implications for Future Dryland Energy Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, W. A.; Flagg, C.; Painter, T. H.; Okin, G. S.; Belnap, J.; Reed, S.

2014-12-01

Drylands comprise ≈40% of the terrestrial Earth surface and observations suggest they can respond markedly to climate change. A vital component of dryland ecosystems are biological soil crusts (biocrusts) - a network of surface soil lichens, mosses, and cyanobacteria - that perform critical ecosystem functions, such as stabilizing soil and fixing carbon and nitrogen. Yet, our understanding of the role biocrusts play in dryland energy balance remains poor. Changes in climate can rapidly affect biocrust communities and we have long known that biocrusts respond dramatically to physical disturbance, such as human trampling and grazing animals. Associated changes in biocrust cover often result in increased bare soil; creating higher surface reflectance. We used spectral solar reflectance measurements in two manipulative experiments to compare the effects of climate and physical disturbance on biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau We measured reflectance at two heights: at crust surface and 1 m above. The climate disturbance site has four treatments: control, warming (4°C), altered precipitation, and warming plus altered precipitation. The physical disturbance site was trampled by foot annually since 1998. At the climate experiment, the largest change in reflectance was in the altered precipitation treatment (35% increase) at the surface-level, and the smallest difference was in the warmed (17% increase) at the meter-level. Physical disturbance differences were 10% at meter-level and 25% at surface-level. Unexpectedly, these results suggest that, via effects on biocrust communities, climate change could have a larger effect on dryland energy balance relative to physical disturbance, and result in more radiation from drylands returned to the atmosphere. Biocrusts cover large portions of the Earth's surface and, to our knowledge, these are the first data showing climate-induced changes to biocrust reflectance, with negative feedback in the global energy balance.

Methane mitigation timelines to inform energy technology evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Mandira; Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

2015-11-01

Energy technologies emitting differing proportions of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) vary significantly in their relative climate impacts over time, due to the distinct atmospheric lifetimes and radiative efficiencies of the two gases. Standard technology comparisons using the global warming potential (GWP) with a fixed time horizon do not account for the timing of emissions in relation to climate policy goals. Here we develop a portfolio optimization model that incorporates changes in technology impacts based on the temporal proximity of emissions to a radiative forcing (RF) stabilization target. An optimal portfolio, maximizing allowed energy consumption while meeting the RF target, is obtained by year-wise minimization of the marginal RF impact in an intended stabilization year. The optimal portfolio calls for using certain higher-CH4-emitting technologies prior to an optimal switching year, followed by CH4-light technologies as the stabilization year approaches. We apply the model to evaluate transportation technology pairs and find that accounting for dynamic emissions impacts, in place of using the static GWP, can result in CH4 mitigation timelines and technology transitions that allow for significantly greater energy consumption while meeting a climate policy target. The results can inform the forward-looking evaluation of energy technologies by engineers, private investors, and policy makers.

A multi-omics and imaging approach to understand soil organic matter composition and its interaction with microbes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tfaily, M. M.; Walker, L. R.; Kyle, J. E.; Chu, R. K.; Dohnalkova, A.; Tolic, N.; Orton, D.; Robinson, E. R.; Paša-Tolić, L.; Hess, N. J.

2015-12-01

The focus on soil C dynamics is currently relevant as researchers and policymakers strive to understand the feedbacks between ecosystem stress and climate change. Successful development of molecular profiles that link soil microbiology with soil carbon (C) dynamics to ascertain soil vulnerability and resilience to climate change would have great impact on assessments of soil ecosystems in response to climate change. Additionally, a better understanding of the soil C dynamics would improve climate modeling, and fate and transport of carbon across terrestrial, subsurface and atmospheric interfaces. Unravelling the wide range of possible interactions between and within the microbial communities, with minerals and organic compounds in the terrestrial ecosystem requires a multimodal, molecular approach. Here we report on the use of a combination of several molecular 'omics' approaches: metabolomics, metallomics, lipidomics, and proteomics coupled with a suite of high resolution imaging, and X-ray diffraction crystallographic techniques, as a novel methodology to understand SOM composition, and its interaction with microbial communities in different ecosystems, including C associated with mineral surfaces. The findings of these studies provide insights into the SOM persistence and microbial stabilization of carbon in ecosystems and reveal the powerful coupling of a multi-scale of techniques. Examples of this approach will be presented from field studies of simulated climate change, and laboratory column-grown Pinus resinosa mesocosms.

Assessment of Blue Carbon Storage by Baja California (Mexico) Tidal Wetlands and Evidence for Wetland Stability in the Face of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts.

PubMed

Watson, Elizabeth Burke; Hinojosa Corona, Alejandro

2017-12-24

Although saline tidal wetlands cover less than a fraction of one percent of the earth's surface (~0.01%), they efficiently sequester organic carbon due to high rates of primary production coupled with surfaces that aggrade in response to sea level rise. Here, we report on multi-decadal changes (1972-2008) in the extent of tidal marshes and mangroves, and characterize soil carbon density and source, for five regions of tidal wetlands located on Baja California's Pacific coast. Land-cover change analysis indicates the stability of tidal wetlands relative to anthropogenic and climate change impacts over the past four decades, with most changes resulting from natural coastal processes that are unique to arid environments. The disturbance of wetland soils in this region (to a depth of 50 cm) would liberate 2.55 Tg of organic carbon (C) or 9.36 Tg CO₂eq. Based on stoichiometry and carbon stable isotope ratios, the source of organic carbon in these wetland sediments is derived from a combination of wetland macrophyte, algal, and phytoplankton sources. The reconstruction of natural wetland dynamics in Baja California provides a counterpoint to the history of wetland destruction elsewhere in North America, and measurements provide new insights on the control of carbon sequestration in arid wetlands.

Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

2017-08-01

Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

Combined effects of environmental disturbance and climate warming on insect herbivory in mountain birch in subarctic forests: Results of 26-year monitoring.

PubMed

Kozlov, M V; Zverev, V; Zvereva, E L

2017-12-01

Both pollution and climate affect insect-plant interactions, but the combined effects of these two abiotic drivers of global change on insect herbivory remain almost unexplored. From 1991 to 2016, we monitored the population densities of 25 species or species groups of insects feeding on mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) in 29 sites and recorded leaf damage by insects in 21 sites in subarctic forests around the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk, north-western Russia. The leaf-eating insects demonstrated variable, and sometimes opposite, responses to pollution-induced forest disturbance and to climate variations. Consequently, we did not discover any general trend in herbivory along the disturbance gradient. Densities of eight species/species groups correlated with environmental disturbance, but these correlations weakened from 1991 to 2016, presumably due to the fivefold decrease in emissions of sulphur dioxide and heavy metals from the smelter. The densities of externally feeding defoliators decreased from 1991 to 2016 and the densities of leafminers increased, while the leaf roller densities remained unchanged. Consequently, no overall temporal trend in the abundance of birch-feeding insects emerged despite a 2-3°C elevation in spring temperatures. Damage to birch leaves by insects decreased during the observation period in heavily disturbed forests, did not change in moderately disturbed forests and tended to increase in pristine forests. The temporal stability of insect-plant interactions, quantified by the inverse of the coefficient of among-year variations of herbivore population densities and of birch foliar damage, showed a negative correlation with forest disturbance. We conclude that climate differently affects insect herbivory in heavily stressed versus pristine forests, and that herbivorous insects demonstrate diverse responses to environmental disturbance and climate variations. This diversity of responses, in combination with the decreased stability of insect-plant interactions, increases the uncertainty in predictions on the impacts of global change on forest damage by insects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contribution of physical modelling to climate-driven landslide hazard mapping: an alpine test site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, R.; Desramaut, N.; Baills, A.; Hohmann, A.; Grandjean, G.; Sedan, O.; Mallet, J. P.

2012-04-01

The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. Mechanical approaches represent a solution for quantitative landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling. However, as the quantity and the quality of data are generally very heterogeneous at a regional scale, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty in the analysis. In this perspective, a new hazard modeling method is developed and integrated in a program named ALICE. This program integrates mechanical stability analysis through a GIS software taking into account data uncertainty. This method proposes a quantitative classification of landslide hazard and offers a useful tool to gain time and efficiency in hazard mapping. However, an expertise approach is still necessary to finalize the maps. Indeed it is the only way to take into account some influent factors in slope stability such as heterogeneity of the geological formations or effects of anthropic interventions. To go further, the alpine test site (Barcelonnette area, France) is being used to integrate climate change scenarios into ALICE program, and especially their precipitation component with the help of a hydrological model (GARDENIA) and the regional climate model REMO (Jacob, 2001). From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. This communication, realized within the framework of Safeland project, is supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment", Activity 1.3.3.1 "Prediction of triggering and risk assessment for landslides".

Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

2017-08-01

Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Asymmetries in Climate Change Feedbacks: Why the Future may be Hotter Than you Think

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Harte, J.

2006-12-01

Feedbacks in the climate system are major sources of uncertainty, and climate predictions do not yet include one key set of feedbacks, namely biospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) feedbacks. Historical evidence shows that atmospheric GhG concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantify this feedback for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by combining the mathematics of feedback with both empirical ice-core information and general circulation model climate sensitivity. We find that a warming of 1.7-5.8°C predicted for the year 2100 is amplified to a warming commitment of 1.9-7.7°C, with the range deriving from different GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Uncertainty in climate change predictions have been used as a rationale for inaction against the threat of global warming, based on a prevailing view that the uncertainties are symmetric, giving equal support to climate "optimists" (who think it will be a small problem) and "pessimists," (it will be a big problem). Our results show that even a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed towards higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think, which implies more severe climate change impacts. Thus, these results suggest that a conservative policy approach would employ lower emission targets and tighter stabilization time horizons than would otherwise be required.

Why we shouldn't underestimate the impact of plant functional diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groner, V.; Raddatz, T.; Reick, C. H.; Claussen, M.

2017-12-01

We present a series of coupled land-atmosphere simulations with different combinations of plant functional types (PFTs) from mid-Holocene to preindustrial to show how plant functional diversity affects simulated climate-vegetation interaction under changing environmental conditions in subtropical Africa. Scientists nowadays agree that the establishment of the ``green'' Sahara was triggered by external changes in the Earth's orbit and amplified by internal feedback mechanisms. The timing and abruptness of the transition to the ``desert'' state are in turn still under debate. While some previous studies indicated an abrupt collapse of vegetation implying a strong climate-vegetation feedback, others suggested a gradual vegetation decline thereby questioning the existence of a strong climate-vegetation feedback. However, none of these studies explicitly accounted for the role of plant diversity. We show that the introduction or removal of a single PFT can bring about significant impacts on the simulated climate-vegetation system response to changing orbital forcing. While simulations with the standard set of PFTs show a gradual decrease of precipitation and vegetation cover over time, the reduction of plant functional diversity can cause either an abrupt decline of both variables or an even slower response to the external forcing. PFT composition seems to be the decisive factor for the system response to external forcing, and an increase in plant functional diversity does not necessarily increase the stability of the climate-vegetation system. From this we conclude that accounting for plant functional diversity in future studies - not only on palaeo climates - could significantly improve the understanding of climate-vegetation interaction in semi-arid regions, the predictability of the vegetation response to changing climate, and respectively, of the resulting feedback on precipitation.

Resilience landscapes for Congo basin rainforests vs. climate and management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Gautam, Sishir; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Stanzl, Patrick; Mosnier, Aline; Obersteiner, Michael

2015-04-01

Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, and construct resilience landscapes for current day conditions vs. climate and management impacts.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

PubMed

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-12

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

PubMed Central

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-01-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

2014-12-01

Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, Monireh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Yang, Hong

2013-02-01

SummaryThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa at the subbasin level for the period of 2020-2040. Future climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the four IPCC emission scenarios were fed into an existing SWAT hydrological model to project the impact on different components of water resources across the African continent. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data of Climate Research Unit to represent local climate conditions at 0.5° grid spatial resolution. The results show that for Africa as a whole, the mean total quantity of water resources is likely to increase. For individual subbasins and countries, variations are substantial. Although uncertainties are high in the simulated results, we found that in many regions/countries, most of the climate scenarios projected the same direction of changes in water resources, suggesting a relatively high confidence in the projections. The assessment of the number of dry days and the frequency of their occurrences suggests an increase in the drought events and their duration in the future. Overall, the dry regions have higher uncertainties than the wet regions in the projected impacts on water resources. This poses additional challenge to the agriculture in dry regions where water shortage is already severe while irrigation is expected to become more important to stabilize and increase food production.

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

Background sampling and transferability of species distribution model ensembles under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturbide, Maialen; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

2018-07-01

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) constitute an important tool to assist decision-making in environmental conservation and planning. A popular application of these models is the projection of species distributions under climate change conditions. Yet there are still a range of methodological SDM factors which limit the transferability of these models, contributing significantly to the overall uncertainty of the resulting projections. An important source of uncertainty often neglected in climate change studies comes from the use of background data (a.k.a. pseudo-absences) for model calibration. Here, we study the sensitivity to pseudo-absence sampling as a determinant factor for SDM stability and transferability under climate change conditions, focusing on European wide projections of Quercus robur as an illustrative case study. We explore the uncertainty in future projections derived from ten pseudo-absence realizations and three popular SDMs (GLM, Random Forest and MARS). The contribution of the pseudo-absence realization to the uncertainty was higher in peripheral regions and clearly differed among the tested SDMs in the whole study domain, being MARS the most sensitive - with projections differing up to a 40% for different realizations - and GLM the most stable. As a result we conclude that parsimonious SDMs are preferable in this context, avoiding complex methods (such as MARS) which may exhibit poor model transferability. Accounting for this new source of SDM-dependent uncertainty is crucial when forming multi-model ensembles to undertake climate change projections.

The highs and lows of cloud radiative feedback: Comparing observational data and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A.; Randall, D. A.

2014-12-01

Clouds play a complex role in the climate system, and remain one of the more difficult aspects of the future climate to predict. Over subtropical eastern ocean basins, particularly next to California, Peru, and Southwest Africa, low marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) help to reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface by reflecting incident sunlight. The climate feedback associated with these clouds is thought to be positive. This project looks at CMIP5 models and compares them to observational data from CERES and ERA-Interim to try and find observational evidence and model agreement for low, marine stratocumulus cloud feedback. Although current evidence suggests that the low cloud feedback is positive (IPCC, 2014), an analysis of the simulated relationship between July lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and shortwave cloud forcing in MSC regions suggests that this feedback is not due to changes in LTS. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Stable Water Use Efficiency under Climate Change of Three Sympatric Conifer Species at the Alpine Treeline.

PubMed

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas; Leo, Marco; Matyssek, Rainer; Grams, Thorsten Erhard Edgar

2016-01-01

The ability of treeline associated conifers in the Central Alps to cope with recent climate warming and increasing CO2 concentration is still poorly understood. We determined tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Pinus cembra, Picea abies, and Larix decidua trees from 1975 to 2010. Stable isotope ratios were compared with leaf level gas exchange measurements carried out in situ between 1979 and 2007. Results indicate that tree ring derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of P. cembra, P. abies and L. decidua remained constant during the last 36 years despite climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2. Temporal patterns in Δ(13)C and Δ(18)O mirrored leaf level gas exchange assessments, suggesting parallel increases of CO2-fixation and stomatal conductance of treeline conifer species. As at the study site soil water availability was not a limiting factor iWUE remained largely stable throughout the study period. The stability in iWUE was accompanied by an increase in basal area increment (BAI) suggesting that treeline trees benefit from both recent climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Finally, our results suggest that iWUE may not change species composition at treeline in the Austrian Alps due to similar ecophysiological responses to climatic changes of the three sympatric study species.

Forest expansion and climate change in the Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) zone, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, A.H.

1995-08-01

The relationship between climate change and the dynamics of ecotonal populations of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana [Bong.] Carr.) was determined by comparing climate and the age structure of trees from 24 plots and seedlings from 13 plots in the subalpine zone of Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Tree establishment was greatest during periods with above normal annual and summer temperatures, and normal or above normal precipitation. Seedling establishment was positively correlated with above normal annual and summer temperatures and negatively correlated with April snowpack depth. The different responses of trees and seedlings to precipitation variation is probably related to sitemore » soil moisture conditions. Mountain hemlock populations began to expand in 1842 and establishment increased dramatically after 1880 and peaked during a warm mesic period between 1895 and 1910. The onset of forest expansion coincides with warming that began at the end of the Little Ice Age (1850-1880). These data indicate that stability of the mountain hemlock ecotone is strongly influenced by climate. If warming induced by greenhouse gases does occur as climate models predict, then the structure and dynamics of near timberline forests in the Pacific Northwest will change. 52 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Controls on methane expulsion during melting of natural gas hydrate systems. Topic area 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flemings, Peter

1.1. Project Goal The project goal is to predict, given characteristic climate-induced temperature change scenarios, the conditions under which gas will be expelled from existing accumulations of gas hydrate into the shallow ocean or directly to the atmosphere. When those conditions are met, the fraction of the gas accumulation that escapes and the rate of escape shall be quantified. The predictions shall be applicable in Arctic regions and in gas hydrate systems at the up dip limit of the stability zone on continental margins. The behavior shall be explored in response to two warming scenarios: longer term change due tomore » sea level rise (e.g. 20 thousand years) and shorter term due to atmospheric warming by anthropogenic forcing (decadal time scale). 1.2. Project Objectives During the first budget period, the objectives are to review and categorize the stability state of existing well-studied hydrate reservoirs, develop conceptual and numerical models of the melting process, and to design and conduct laboratory experiments that dissociate methane hydrate in a model sediment column by systematically controlling the temperature profile along the column. The final objective of the first budget period shall be to validate the models against the experiments. In the second budget period, the objectives are to develop a model of gas flow into sediment in which hydrate is thermodynamically stable, and conduct laboratory experiments of this process to validate the model. The developed models shall be used to quantify the rate and volume of gas that escapes from dissociating hydrate accumulations. In addition, specific scaled simulations characteristic of Arctic regions and regions near the stability limit at continental margins shall be performed. 1.3. Project Background and Rationale The central hypothesis proposed is that hydrate melting (dissociation) due to climate change generates free gas that can, under certain conditions, propagate through the gas hydrate stability zone and vent at the seafloor. Gas venting through the regional hydrate stability zone is accomplished by alteration of the regional equilibrium conditions (creation of three phase conditions) by increased salinity and heat due to hydrate formation, due to gas fracturing, or a combination of both. This research will explore the controls on whether methane reaches the seafloor (or atmosphere) as the original hydrate deposit dissociates and what the magnitude of these fluxes are. This hypothesis has significant implications for the forcings and feedbacks associated with climate change. It is described below the observations and models that have led to formulating this hypothesis.« less

Experience of the Paris Research Consortium Climate-Environment-Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joussaume, Sylvie; Pacteau, Chantal; Vanderlinden, Jean Paul

2016-04-01

It is now widely recognized that the complexity of climate change issues translates itself into a need for interdisciplinary approaches to science. This allows to first achieve a more comprehensive vision of climate change and, second, to better inform the decision-making processes. However, it seems that willingness alone is rarely enough to implement interdisciplinarity. The purpose of this presentation is to mobilize reflexivity to revisit and analyze the experience of the Paris Consortium for Climate-Environment-Society. The French Consortium Climate-Environment-Society aims to develop, fund and coordinate interdisciplinary research into climate change and its impacts on society and environment. Launched in 2007, the consortium relies on the research expertise of 17 laboratories and federation in the Paris area working mainly in the fields of climatology, hydrology, ecology, health sciences, and the humanities and social sciences. As examples, economists and climatologists have studied greenhouse gas emission scenarios compatible with climate stabilization goals. Historical records have provided both knowledge about past climate change and vulnerability of societies. Some regions, as the Mediterranean and the Sahel, are particularly vulnerable and already have to cope with water availability, agricultural production and even health issues. A project showed that millet production in West Africa is expected to decline due to warming in a higher proportion than observed in recent decades. Climate change also raises many questions concerning health: combined effects of warming and air quality, impacts on the production of pollens and allergies, impacts on infectious diseases. All these issues lead to a need for approaches integrating different disciplines. Furthermore, climate change impacts many ecosystems which, in turn, affect its evolution. Our experience shows that interdisciplinarity supposes, in order to take shape, the conjunction between programming choices, supporting this kind of approach, and autonomy given to experimenting with interdisciplinary practices. The interdisciplinary approach does not put itself in place and requires a collective reflection on the objectives and practices. Many tools exist to support this process, in particular to mature interdisciplinarity. This incubation period allows the various disciplines to learn to know each other and to build a common conceptual and methodological basis.

My Morning Coffee: The Effect of Climate Change on the Economies of Coffee-Producing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shilling, K.; Brauman, K. A.

2012-12-01

Through its effect on export crops, climate change will have important effects on economic systems and government capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that climate change effects on three important export crops - coffee, cocoa and cotton - will undermine large portions of the economy, not just the rural farmers who grow these crops. Our analysis is based high-resolution data on crop location, temperature, and water requirements in conjunction with new projections for temperature increases and precipitation changes in sub-Saharan Africa. Our focus on export crops is distinct from most work on the effects of climate change on agriculture, which often focuses on subsistence and food crops. We posit that substantial and important effects on the economy and political systems will come from negative impacts on cash crops, which underpin many economies in sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, 3% of cropland in Uganda (and 2% in Ethiopia) is used for coffee production and over 3.5 million households are involved in the sector; by contrast, 7% of cropland in Uganda (and 11% in Ethiopia) is used for maize, which contributes much less to the formal economy. The relationship between the value of coffee exported and government revenue illustrates the importance of coffee to political and economic stability. A drop in the export value of coffee by 10% in Uganda will drive government revenue down by 20%, and while there is uncertainty around the exact impact of climate change, it is likely that production will take a turn for the worse. We use these factors to assess reliance of select country's economy on these crops, from the farmer to the exporter; the sensitivity of the crops to variation in the climate; and the subsequent impact on government capacity. Our research illustrates how strongly the impacts of climate change are linked to economic and political structures.

Modeling the resilience of Amazonian carbon pools under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdu, L. H.; Friend, A. D.; Dolman, A. J.

2013-12-01

The rainfall in the Amazon basin is derived from a mixture of moisture convergence from the Atlantic Ocean and local recycling. Changes in the moisture convergence especially during El Nino episodes, strongly influence the interannual climate variability of the basin, potentially having a strong impact on the carbon pools in vegetation and soil, leading to a changes in the ecosystem of the Amazon basin. We used a 0-dimensional model of atmospheric convection (after D'Andrea et al. 2006) to generate realistic timeseries of temperature and precipitation by changing the moisture convergence from the Atlantic Ocean with implications for the stability of Amazonian rainfall. We chose this model because it relies on very few parameters, allowing us to perform numerous sensitivity tests in relatively short time. In this model total rainfall depends on the parameter expressing the external moisture flux and the intensity of convection. Here, two values of moisture convergence were used, one representative of a wet climate (1.4 mm day-1) and one representative of a dry climate (0.54 mm day-1). We also increased the variability of the rainfall in order to investigate its impact on the carbon pools. We used these scenarios for changing precipitation, along with SRES emission scenarios for increasing atmospheric CO2 to force the Land Surface Model Hybrid8. The effects of a changing climate on the simulated soil and vegetation carbon pools have been investigated. Preliminary results show that in our model configuration and under a wet climate, the change in seasonal variability of precipitation does not seem to have a major impact on the carbon pools, which might suggest that the Amazon rainforest is relatively resilient to changes in seasonal precipitation. However, under a dry climate it may decline into a lower carbon system. The coupling of the two models is in progress with promising results for atmosphere-vegetation feedbacks. We will report on any changes in the threshold of precipitation required to change the carbon content of the system due to changed atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

An Overview of SASSCAL Activities Supporting Interdisciplinary Water Research in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Jürgens, N.

2013-12-01

Climate change will affect current water resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Considering projected climate scenarios, the overall challenge in the southern African region is to secure water at sufficient quality and quantity for both, the stability of ecosystems with their functions and services as well as for human well-being (potable water, irrigation water, and water for industrial use). Thus, improved understanding of the linkages between hydrological (including hydro-geological) components of ecosystems and society is needed as a precondition to develop sustainable management strategies for integrated water resources management in this data scarce region. Funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), 87 research projects of the SASSCAL Initiative (Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management) focus on providing information and services allowing for a better understanding and assessment of the impact of climate and land management changes in five thematic areas, namely climate, water, agriculture, forestry and biodiversity. Water-related research activities in SASSCAL aim to improve our knowledge on the complex interactions and feedbacks between surface and groundwater dynamics and resources as well as land surface processes in selected regions of the participating countries (Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia). The main objective of this joint and integrated research effort is to develop reliable hydrological and hydro-geological baseline data along with a set of analytical methods to strengthen the research capacity of the water sector of the Southern African region. Thereby, SASSCAL contributes to the implemention of integrated water resources management strategies for improved trans-boundary river management and resources usage in the perspective of global climate and land management changes. Here, we present an overview and first results of ongoing studies conducted by various SASSCAL research teams. Specifically addressed is the installation of 30 Automatic Weather Stations in Angola, Botswana and Zambia which will notably improve regional data availability. We further introduce case studies on flood monitoring using remote sensing products, hydrological risks assessments and early warning systems for floods, integrated hydrological modeling efforts, groundwater-surface water interactions and various hydrological process studies in different ecosystems, all at various spatial (local, regional, national and international) and temporal (short-term, long-term, climate projection) scales. With this variety of examples we demonstrate our interdisciplinary research approach as the prerequisite to address the complexity of interacting drivers and processes affecting our land and water resources. The integration of these joint research efforts with findings from other thematic areas, e.g. in the field of optimized land management, deforestation and restoration, ecosystem stability and resilience, climate projections, food production and security, will allow for a better understanding and assessment of global change related environmental threats and resulting societal challenges in the Southern African region.

Implications of recent research on microstructure modifications, through heat-related processing and trait alteration to bio-functions, molecular thermal stability and mobility, metabolic characteristics and nutrition in cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds with advanced molecular techniques.

PubMed

Ying, Yuguang; Zhang, Huihua; Yu, Peiqiang

2018-02-16

The cutting-edge synchrotron radiation based and globar-sourced vibrational infrared microspectroscopy have recently been developed. These novel techniques are able to reveal structure features at cellular and molecular levels with the tested tissues being intact. However, to date, the advanced techniques are unfamiliar or unknown to food and feed scientists and have not been used to study the molecular structure changes in cool-climate cereal grain seeds and other types of bio-oil and bioenergy seeds. This article aims to provide some recent research in cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds on molecular structures and metabolic characteristics of carbohydrate and protein, and implication of microstructure modification through heat-related processing and trait alteration to bio-functions, molecular thermal stability and mobility, and nutrition with advanced molecular techniques- synchrotron radiation based and globar-sourced vibrational infrared microspectroscopy in the areas of (1) Inherent microstructure of cereal grain seeds; (2) The nutritional values of cereal grains; (3) Impact and modification of heat-related processing to cereal grain; (4) Conventional nutrition evaluation methodology; (5) Synchrotron radiation-based and globar-sourced vibrational (micro)-spectroscopy for molecular structure study and molecular thermal stability and mobility, and (6) Recent molecular spectroscopic technique applications in research on raw, traits altered and processed cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds. The information described in this article gives better insights of research progress and update in cool-climate cereal grains and other seeds with advanced molecular techniques.

The Role of Artificial Atmospheric CO2 Removal in Stabilizing Earth's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2014-05-01

Recent research showed that global mean temperature remains approximately constant for several centuries after complete cessation of CO2 emissions, while global mean thermosteric sea level continues to rise. This implies that a net artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere may be necessary to decrease the atmospheric CO2 concentrations more rapidly and bring the climate system components to their previous states on human timescales. The purpose of this study is to explore the reversibility of climate responses to a range of realistic CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition from fossil-fuel driven economy to a zero-emission energy system with implementation of negative CO2 emissions, using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity (UVic ESCM 2.9). The CO2 emission pathways were designed to meet constraints related to the implementation of negative emission technologies derived from the integrated assessment literature. Our simulations show that while it is possible, in principle, to revert the global mean temperature after a phase of overshoot, the thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible on human timescales for the range of emission scenarios considered. During the negative emission phase, CO2 is released form the natural (terrestrial and marine) carbon sinks, which diminishes the efficiency of negative emissions implemented. In addition, spatial changes of vegetation distribution patterns are not entirely reversible on human timescales. We suggest that while negative emissions could potentially stabilize the global mean temperature at a desired level, such technology does not supersede reductions in fossil fuel emissions, as the artificial CO2 capture at large scale has many limitations and is unable to stabilize other climate system components (e.g. sea level) at desired levels.

Hadley circulation extent and strength in a wide range of simulated climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostino, Roberta; Adam, Ori; Lionello, Piero; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

Understanding the Hadley circulation (HC) dynamics is crucial because its changes affect the seasonal migration of the ITCZ, the extent of subtropical arid regions and the strength of the monsoons. Despite decades of study, the factors controlling its strength and extent have remained unclear. Here we analyse how HC strength and extent change over a wide range of climate conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum to future projections. The large climate change between paleoclimate simulations and future scenarios offers the chance to analyse robust HC changes and their link to large-scale factors. The HC shrinks and strengthens in the coldest simulation relative to the warmest. A progressive poleward shift of its edges is evident as the climate warms (at a rate of 0.35°lat./K in each hemisphere). The HC extent and strength both depend on the isentropic slope, which in turn is related to the meridional temperature gradient, subtropical static stability and tropopause height. In multiple robust regression analysis using these as predictors, we find that the tropical tropopause height does not add relevant information to the model beyond surface temperature. Therefore, primarily the static stability and secondarily the meridional temperature contrast together account for the bulk of the almost the total HC variance. However, the regressions leave some of the northern HC edge and southern HC strength variance unexplained. The effectiveness of this analysis is limited by the correlation among the predictors and their relationship with mean temperature. In fact, for all simulations, the tropical temperature explains well the variations of HC except its southern hemisphere intensity. Hence, it can be used as the sole predictor to diagnose the HC response to greenhouse-induced global warming. How to account for the evolution of the southern HC strength remains unclear, because of the large inter-model spread in this quantity.

Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

2015-12-01

Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

Education for Sustainable Development: Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation Expertise in Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fahey, Shireen; Verstraten, Luke; Berry, Ashton J.

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of an innovative education capacity assessment and delivery project to promote sustainable development in large ocean states in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region. Science education can help prepare the present and coming generations for stability in an uncertain future. Limited financial, geographical and…

Infiltration on mountain slopes: a comparison of three environments.

Treesearch

Carol P. Harden*; P. Delmas Scruggs

2003-01-01

Water is well established as a major driver of the geomorphic change that eventually reduces mountains to lower relief landscapes. Nonetheless, within the altitudinal limits of continuous vegetation in humid climates, water is also an essential factor in slope stability. In this paper, we present results from field experiments to determine infiltration rates at...

Gas hydrates in the ocean environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillon, William P.

2002-01-01

A GAS HYDRATE, also known as a gas clathrate, is a gas-bearing, icelike material. It occurs in abundance in marine sediments and stores immense amounts of methane, with major implications for future energy resources and global climate change. Furthermore, gas hydrate controls some of the physical properties of sedimentary deposits and thereby influences seafloor stability.

The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L

2012-06-01

If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Niche conservatism of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti - two mosquito species with different invasion histories.

PubMed

Cunze, Sarah; Kochmann, Judith; Koch, Lisa K; Klimpel, Sven

2018-05-16

Biological invasions have been associated with niche changes; however, their occurrence is still debated. We assess whether climatic niches between native and non-native ranges have changed during the invasion process using two globally spread mosquitoes as model species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti. Considering the different time spans since their invasions (>300 vs. 30-40 years), niche changes were expected to be more likely for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus. We used temperature and precipitation variables as descriptors for the realized climatic niches and different niche metrics to detect niche dynamics in the native and non-native ranges. High niche stability, therefore, no niche expansion but niche conservatism was revealed for both species. High niche unfilling for Ae. albopictus indicates a great potential for further expansion. Highest niche occupancies in non-native ranges occurred either under more temperate (North America, Europe) or tropical conditions (South America, Africa). Aedes aegypti has been able to fill its native climatic niche in the non-native ranges, with very low unfilling. Our results challenge the assumption of rapid evolutionary change of climatic niches as a requirement for global invasions but support the use of native range-based niche models to project future invasion risk on a large scale.

Determination of semi-arid landscape endmembers and seasonal trends using convex geometry spectral unmixing techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuhas, Roberta H.; Boardman, Joseph W.; Goetz, Alexander F. H.

1993-01-01

Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were acquired during three consecutive growing seasons (26 September 1989, 22 March 1990, and 7 August 1990) over an area of the High Plains east of Greeley, Colorado (40 deg 20 min N and 104 deg 16 min W). A repeat visit to assess vegetation at its peak growth was flown on 6 June 1993. This region contains extensive eolian deposits in the form of stabilized dune complexes (small scale parabolic dunes superimposed on large scale longitudinal and parabolic dunes). Due to the dunes' large scale (2-10 km) and low relief (1-5 m), the scaling and morphological relationships that contribute to the evolution of this landscape are nearly impossible to understand without the use of remote sensing. Additionally, this area and regions similarly situated could be the first to experience the effects caused by global climate change. During the past 10,000 years there were at least four periods of extensive sand activity due to climate change, followed by periods of landscape stability, as shown in the stratigraphic record of this area.

Ecological Footprint in relation to Climate Change Strategy in Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belčáková, Ingrid; Diviaková, Andrea; Belaňová, Eliška

2017-10-01

Ecological footprint determines how much natural resources are consumed by an individual, city, region, state or all inhabitants of our planet in order to ensure their requirements and needs. It includes all activities, from food consumption, housing, transport to waste produced and allows us to compare particular activities and their impacts on the environment and natural resources. Ecological footprint is important issue for making sustainable development concept more popular using simplifications, which provide the public with basic information on situation on our planet. Today we know calculations of global (worldwide), national and local ecological footprints. During our research in cities, we were concentrated on calculation of city’s ecological footprint. The article tries to outline theoretical and assumptions and practical results of climate change consequences in cities of Bratislava and Nitra (Slovakia), to describe potential of mitigating adverse impacts of climate change and to provide information for general and professional public on theoretical assumptions in calculating ecological footprint. The intention is to present innovation of ecological footprint calculation, taking into consideration ecological stability of a city (with a specific focus on micro-climate functions of green areas). Present possibilities to reduce ecological footprint are presented.

The Roadmap to Climate Stability Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Climate Accounting Protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, T.

2016-12-01

The Climate Stabilization Council recognizes the severe impact consequences of a rapidly warming climate and the challenging mitigation requirements of reaching the COP21 aspirational goal of +1.5°C. To address this challenge, we have used the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report which presents new methods for projecting increases in average global temperature and new metrics to update global climate accounting protocols. The updated protocols allow us to assess the full spectrum of climate mitigation projects available and identify the ability of specific projects to achieve various climate warming targets at different points in time. This assessment demonstrates the need to continue focusing on reducing and removing the major sources of overall excess heat linked to CO2, methane, black carbon, and tropospheric ozone. These findings also highlight the importance of solar radiation management (SRM) and earth radiation management (ERM) to achieve climate stabilization in the near-term. By integrating advanced life-cycle assessment (LCA) into the protocols, unintended environmental or human health impact trade-offs that may be associated with deployment of specific mitigation options can be identified. These protocols have also been introduced for standardization to the international ISO 14000 process. We conclude by describing the Climate Stabilization Council's role in establishing a platform for the scientific research, evaluation, and implementation of the identified climate mitigation projects.

Timescales of methane seepage on the Norwegian margin following collapse of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Crémière, Antoine; Lepland, Aivo; Chand, Shyam; Sahy, Diana; Condon, Daniel J.; Noble, Stephen R.; Martma, Tõnu; Thorsnes, Terje; Sauer, Simone; Brunstad, Harald

2016-01-01

Gas hydrates stored on continental shelves are susceptible to dissociation triggered by environmental changes. Knowledge of the timescales of gas hydrate dissociation and subsequent methane release are critical in understanding the impact of marine gas hydrates on the ocean–atmosphere system. Here we report a methane efflux chronology from five sites, at depths of 220–400 m, in the southwest Barents and Norwegian seas where grounded ice sheets led to thickening of the gas hydrate stability zone during the last glaciation. The onset of methane release was coincident with deglaciation-induced pressure release and thinning of the hydrate stability zone. Methane efflux continued for 7–10 kyr, tracking hydrate stability changes controlled by relative sea-level rise, bottom water warming and fluid pathway evolution in response to changing stress fields. The protracted nature of seafloor methane emissions probably attenuated the impact of hydrate dissociation on the climate system. PMID:27167635

Energy in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.; Hoffert, M.

2012-12-01

Human interference in Earth's natural systems is fueled by ever-increasing consumption of fossil energy. The energy we consume has enabled exponential growth of human population and economic wealth by expanding access to basic goods and services such as food, medicine, light, sanitation and refrigeration, as well as more advanced technologies such as transport and communication. In turn, population growth and economic development drive demand for even more energy. By 2050, it is expected that global energy demand will double to more than 30 TW. Unfortunately, the modern energy system is largely dependent on fossil fuels, and the CO2 released by burning of these fuels is the primary cause of anthropogenic climate change. As human civilization has expanded, primary energy sources have become progressively less carbon intensive, transitioning from the use of unsustainably harvested biomass to coal, oil and then natural gas. However, tremendous growth in the quantity of energy energy consumption in the industrial era has caused rapid growth of CO2 emissions. Limiting these emissions to avoid the more severe impacts of climate change while also meeting future demand for energy will require continuing the process of decarbonization by making a planetary-scale transition to largely carbon-emission-free energy technologies. In 2004, Pacala and Socolow proposed that such a transition could be achieved by stabilizing emissions at then-current levels for 50 years and then decreasing emissions by 2% per year afterward. They divided the task of stabilization into "wedges" that would grow linearly from zero to 1 gigatonne of carbon emissions avoided per year (GtC/y; 1 Gt = 10^12 kg) over 50 years, and asserted that deploying 7 wedges offset the growth of emissions and put us on a trajectory to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at 500 ppm if emissions decreased sharply in the second half of the 21st century. However, in light of the growth of emissions since 2004, new carbon-climate model simulations suggest that stabilizing current emissions for 50 years is no longer consistent with either an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm nor global temperature increases below 2°C. Thus, if "solving the carbon-climate problem for the next 50 years" means meeting these climate targets, then solving the climate problem means not just stabilizing but substantially reducing CO2 emissions over the next 50 years, ultimately to near zero. And such large reductions in annual emissions will entail many more than 7 wedges. Depending on whether or not historical rates of decarbonization continue, a phase-out of emissions over 50 years would require between 19 and 31 wedges, beyond the wedges that may already be included in the baseline scenario. This level of mitigation will require affordable carbon-free energy systems to be deployed at the scale of tens of terawatts. Any hope for such fundamental transformation of the global energy system depends upon coordinated efforts to innovate, plan, and deploy new transportation and energy systems that can provide affordable energy at scale without emitting CO2 to the atmosphere. Lacking such efforts, the climate of the Anthropocene will come to resemble that of the Cretaceous.

Climate change and the middle atmosphere. I - The doubled CO2 climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Prather, M. J.; Suozzo, R.; Balachandran, N. K.

1990-01-01

The effect of doubling the atmospheric content of CO2 on the middle-atmosphere climate is investigated using the GISS global climate model. In the standard experiment, the CO2 concentration is doubled both in the stratosphere and troposphere, and the SSTs are increased to match those of the doubled CO2 run of the GISS model. Results show that the doubling of CO2 leads to higher temperatures in the troposphere, and lower temperatures in the stratosphere, with a net result being a decrease of static stability for the atmosphere as a whole. The middle atmosphere dynamical differences found were on the order of 10-20 percent of the model values for the current climate. These differences, along with the calculated temperature differences of up to about 10 C, may have a significant impact on the chemistry of the future atmosphere, including that of stratospheric ozone, the polar ozone 'hole', and basic atmospheric composition.

Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, William J.; Huang, Yongsong; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Anderson, N. John

2011-01-01

West Greenland has had multiple episodes of human colonization and cultural transitions over the past 4,500 y. However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions. Evaluating the potential role of climate change is complicated by the lack of quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions near settlement areas and by the relative stability of Holocene temperature derived from ice cores atop the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present high-resolution records of temperature over the past 5,600 y based on alkenone unsaturation in sediments of two lakes in West Greenland. We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. PMID:21628586

The effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

Treesearch

E.E. Jafarov; V.E. Romanovsky; H. Genet; A.D. McGuire; S.S. Marchenko

2013-01-01

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1)...

Environmental Change, Natural Disasters and Stability in Central America and the Caribbean (CSL Issue Paper, Volume 5-10, September 2010)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

the climate situation is wetter and more vulnerable to hurricane events. Environmental impacts also influence human health, biodiversity , and...frequency of more severe hurricanes, floods, and droughts. The detrimental manmade disasters in the region include deforestation , land use changes...to mitigating the effects of these issues that limit the spread and severity of disasters and preserve the resource base upon which nation state

Key roles of sea ice in inducing contrasting modes of glacial AMOC and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherriff-Tadano, S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2017-12-01

Gaining a better understanding of glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is important to interpret the glacial climate changes such as the Heinrich event. Recent studies suggest that changes in sea ice over the North Atlantic largely affect the surface wind. Since changes in surface wind have a large impact on the AMOC, this implies a role of sea ice in modifying the AMOC though surface wind. However, the impact of sea ice on the surface winds and the impact of changes in the winds on the AMOC remain unclear. In this study, we first assess the impact of sea ice expansion on the winds. We then explore whether the changes in winds play a role in modifying the AMOC and climate. For this purpose, results from MIROC4m are analyzed (Kawamura et al. 2017). To clarify the impact of changes in sea ice on the surface wind, sensitivity experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the AGCM experiments, we modify the sea ice to extract the impact of sea ice on the winds. Partial decouple experiments are conducted with the coupled model MIROC4m, which we modify the surface winds to assess the impact of changes in the surface wind due to sea ice expansion on the AMOC. Results show that expansion of sea ice substantially weakens the surface wind over the northern North Atlantic. AGCM experiments show that a drastic decrease in surface temperature duo to a suppression of sensible heat flux plays a dominant role in weakening the surface winds through increasing the static stability of the air column near the surface. Partial decouple experiments with MIROC4m show that the weakening of the surface wind due to the expansion of sea ice plays an important role in maintaining the weak AMOC. Thus, these experiments show that the weakening of the surface winds due to sea ice expansion plays a role in stabilizing the AMOC.

Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

2013-12-01

Monitoring the atmosphere to gain accurate and long-term stable records of essential climate variables (ECVs) such as temperature and greenhouse gases is the backbone of contemporary atmospheric and climate science. Earth observation from space is the key to obtain such data globally in the atmosphere. Currently, however, not any existing satellite-based atmospheric ECV record can serve as authoritative benchmark over months to decades so that climate variability and change in the atmosphere are not yet reliably monitored. Radio occultation (RO) using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals provides a unique opportunity to solve this problem in the free atmosphere (from ~1-2 km altitude upwards) for core ECVs: the thermodynamic variables temperature and pressure, and to some degree water vapor, which are key parameters for tracking climate change. On top of RO we have recently conceived next-generation methods, microwave and infrared-laser occultation and nadir-looking infrared-laser reflectometry. These can monitor a full set of thermo-dynamic ECVs (incl. wind) as well as the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane as main drivers of climate change; for the latter we also target the boundary layer for tracking carbon sources and sinks. We briefly introduce to why the atmospheric climate monitoring challenge is unsolved so far and why just the above methods have the capabilities to break through. We then focus on RO, which already provided more than a decade of observations. RO accurately measures time delays from refraction of GNSS signals during atmospheric occultation events. This enables to tie RO-derived ECVs and their uncertainty to fundamental time standards, effectively the SI second, and to their unique long-term stability and narrow uncertainty. However, despite impressive advances since the pioneering RO mission GPS/Met in the mid-1990ties no rigorous trace from fundamental time to the ECVs (duly accounting also for relevant side influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

Ecosystem Resilience to Drought and Temperature Anomalies in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na-U-Dom, T.; García, M.; Mo, X.

2017-05-01

Climate change is leading to an increasing in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which significantly affect ecosystems stability. In this study, ecological stability metrics in response to wet/dry events and warm/cold events on vegetation greenness were assessed using an auto-regressive model of NDVI in the Mekong River basin (around 759,000 km2) where large ecological and climatic gradients exist. Gridded temperature, and the Global Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) and antecedent NDVI were used as model predictors. The forest in north Laos was more resilient to the temperate and wet/dry anomalies events than other regions in the basin. Drought reduced green biomass in north Laos, northeast Thailand and Myanmar, but in these tropical climate regions’ the vegetation biomass was also more responsive by higher temperatures. Vegetation in northeast Thailand, Cambodia and the Mekong delta were less sensitive to the temperature anomalies effect compared to other part of Mekong River basin. The map of resistance and resilience metrics can help to determine the most vulnerable regions to extreme events for policy makers.

Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover

PubMed Central

Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

2015-01-01

To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time–decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity. PMID:25989371

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Factors controlling soil organic carbon stability along a temperate forest altitudinal gradient

PubMed Central

Tian, Qiuxiang; He, Hongbo; Cheng, Weixin; Bai, Zhen; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Xudong

2016-01-01

Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stability may alter carbon release from the soil and, consequently, atmospheric CO2 concentration. The mean annual temperature (MAT) can change the soil physico-chemical characteristics and alter the quality and quantity of litter input into the soil that regulate SOC stability. However, the relationship between climate and SOC stability remains unclear. A 500-day incubation experiment was carried out on soils from an 11 °C-gradient mountainous system on Changbai Mountain in northeast China. Soil respiration during the incubation fitted well to a three-pool (labile, intermediate and stable) SOC decomposition model. A correlation analysis revealed that the MAT only influenced the labile carbon pool size and not the SOC stability. The intermediate carbon pool contributed dominantly to cumulative carbon release. The size of the intermediate pool was strongly related to the percentage of sand particle. The decomposition rate of the intermediate pool was negatively related to soil nitrogen availability. Because both soil texture and nitrogen availability are temperature independent, the stability of SOC was not associated with the MAT, but was heavily influenced by the intrinsic processes of SOC formation and the nutrient status. PMID:26733344

Carbon Cycling and Biosequestration Integrating Biology and Climate Through Systems Science Report from the March 2008 Workshop

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graber, J.; Amthor, J.; Dahlman, R.

2008-12-01

One of the most daunting challenges facing science in the 21st Century is to predict how Earth's ecosystems will respond to global climate change. The global carbon cycle plays a central role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels and thus Earth's climate, but our basic understanding of the myriad of tightly interlinked biological processes that drive the global carbon cycle remains limited at best. Whether terrestrial and ocean ecosystems will capture, store, or release carbon is highly dependent on how changing climate conditions affect processes performed by the organisms that form Earth's biosphere. Advancing our knowledge of biologicalmore » components of the global carbon cycle is thus crucial to predicting potential climate change impacts, assessing the viability of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, and informing relevant policy decisions. Global carbon cycling is dominated by the paired biological processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Photosynthetic plants and microbes of Earth's land-masses and oceans use solar energy to transform atmospheric CO{sub 2} into organic carbon. The majority of this organic carbon is rapidly consumed by plants or microbial decomposers for respiration and returned to the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Coupling between the two processes results in a near equilibrium between photosynthesis and respiration at the global scale, but some fraction of organic carbon also remains in stabilized forms such as biomass, soil, and deep ocean sediments. This process, known as carbon biosequestration, temporarily removes carbon from active cycling and has thus far absorbed a substantial fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions.« less

Using Internet of Things inspired wireless sensor networks to monitor cryospheric processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, J. K.; Martinez, K.

2017-12-01

In order to understand how modern climate change is effecting cryospheric environments we need to monitor these remote environments. There are few measurements of current day conditions because of the logistical difficulties. In particular, the whole year needs to be monitored, as well as accessing challenging environments (such as beneath the glacier). We demonstrate from Norway, Iceland and Scotland how embedded sensors along with geophysical (GPR)and surveying data (dGPS, TLS, UAV and time-lapse photography) can be used to investigate recent dramatic environmental changes associated with climate change. This includes: i) a comparison between stable and unstable glacier retreat (the subglacial hydrology, glacier motion, englacial structure and till behaviour of a rapid subaqueous glacier break-up compared with slower terrestrial retreat); and iii) an investigation of future ground stability and greenhouse gas release associated with periglacial conditions.

Beyond clay: Towards an improved set of variables for predicting soil organic matter content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Craig; Heckman, Katherine; Wieder, William R.; Keiluweit, Marco; Lawrence, Corey R.; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Crow, Susan E.; Druhan, Jennifer; Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Plante, Alain F.; Schadel, Christina; Schmiel, Joshua P.; Sierra, Carlos A.; Thompson, Aaron; Wagai, Rota

2018-01-01

Improved quantification of the factors controlling soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization at continental to global scales is needed to inform projections of the largest actively cycling terrestrial carbon pool on Earth, and its response to environmental change. Biogeochemical models rely almost exclusively on clay content to modify rates of SOM turnover and fluxes of climate-active CO2 to the atmosphere. Emerging conceptual understanding, however, suggests other soil physicochemical properties may predict SOM stabilization better than clay content. We addressed this discrepancy by synthesizing data from over 5,500 soil profiles spanning continental scale environmental gradients. Here, we demonstrate that other physicochemical parameters are much stronger predictors of SOM content, with clay content having relatively little explanatory power. We show that exchangeable calcium strongly predicted SOM content in water-limited, alkaline soils, whereas with increasing moisture availability and acidity, iron- and aluminum-oxyhydroxides emerged as better predictors, demonstrating that the relative importance of SOM stabilization mechanisms scales with climate and acidity. These results highlight the urgent need to modify biogeochemical models to better reflect the role of soil physicochemical properties in SOM cycling.

Economics, ethics, and climate policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

1992-11-01

Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present andmore » future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Economics, ethics, and climate policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

1992-11-01

Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present andmore » future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

PubMed

Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

2017-10-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

2009-12-01

Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

2016-08-01

Precipitation projections are usually presented as the change in precipitation between a fixed current baseline and a particular time in the future. However, upcoming generations will be affected in a way probably more related to the moving trend in precipitation patterns, i.e. to the rate and the persistence of regional precipitation changes from one generation to the next, than to changes relative to a fixed current baseline. In this perspective, we propose an alternative characterization of the future precipitation changes predicted by general circulation models, focusing on the precipitation difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. We show that in a business-as-usual emission pathway, the moistening and drying rates increase by 30-40 %, both over land and ocean. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more regions exhibit a significant rate of precipitation change, while the patterns become geographically stationary and the trends persistent. The stabilization of the geographical rate patterns that occurs despite the acceleration of global warming can be physically explained: it results from the increasing contribution of thermodynamic processes compared to dynamic processes in the control of precipitation change. We show that such an evolution is already noticeable over the last decades, and that it could be reversed if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. The combination of intensification and increasing persistence of precipitation rate patterns may affect the way human societies and natural ecosystems adapt to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean basin, in Central America, in South Asia and in the Arctic.

Clime: analyzing and producing climate data in GIS environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattaneo, Luigi; Rillo, Valeria; Mercogliano, Paola

2014-05-01

In the last years, Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (ISC) of CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) had several collaboration experiences with impact communities, including IS-ENES (FP7-INF) and SafeLand (FP7-ENV) projects, which involved a study of landslide risk in Europe, and is currently active in GEMINA (FIRB) and ORIENTGATE (SEE Transnational Cooperation Programme) research projects. As a result, it has brought research activities about different impact of climate changes as flood and landslide hazards, based on climate simulation obtained from the high resolution regional climate models COSMO CLM, developed at CMCC as member of the consortium CLM Assembly. ISC-Capua also collaborates with local institutions interested in atmospherical climate change and also of their impacts on the soil, such as river basin authorities in the Campania region, ARPA Emilia Romagna and ARPA Calabria. Impact models (e.g. hydraulic or stability models) are usually developed in a GIS environment, since they need an accurate territory description, so Clime has been designed to bridge the usually existing gap between climate data - both observed and simulated - gathered from different sources, and impact communities. The main goal of Clime, special purpose Geographic Information System (GIS) software integrated in ESRI ArcGIS Desktop 10, is to easily evaluate multiple climate features and study climate changes over specific geographical domains with their related effects on environment, including impacts on soil. Developed as an add-in tool, this software has been conceived for research activities of ISC Division in order to provide a substantial contribution during post-processing and validation phase. Therefore, it is possible to analyze and compare multiple datasets (observations, climate simulations, etc.) through processes involving statistical functions, percentiles, trends test and evaluation of extreme events with a flexible system of temporal and spatial filtering, and to represent results as maps, temporal and statistic plots (time series, seasonal cycles, PDFs, scatter plots, Taylor diagrams) or Excel tables; in addition, it features bias correction techniques for climate model results. Summarizing, Clime is able to provide users a simple and fast way to retrieve analysis over simulated climate data and observations within any geographical site of interest (provinces, regions, countries, etc.).

Measuring Skin Temperatures with the IASI Hyperspectral Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safieddine, S.; George, M.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.

2017-12-01

Although the role of satellites in observing the variability of the Earth system has increased in recent decades, remote-sensing observations are still underexploited to accurately assess climate change fingerprints, in particular temperature variations. The IASI - Flux and Temperature (IASI-FT) project aims at providing new benchmarks for temperature observations using the calibrated radiances measured twice a day at any location by the IASI thermal infrared instrument on the suite of MetOp satellites (2006-2025). The main challenge is to achieve the accuracy and stability needed for climate studies, particularly that required for climate trends. Time series for land and sea skin surface temperatures are derived and compared with in situ measurements and atmospheric reanalysis. The observed trends are analyzed at seasonal and regional scales in order to disentangle natural (weather/dynamical) variability and human-induced climate forcings.

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

Field measurement and analysis of climatic factors affecting dune mobility near Grand Falls on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bogle, Rian; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Vogel, John M.

2015-01-01

Aeolian sand covers extensive areas of the Navajo Nation in the southwestern United States. Much of this sand is currently stabilized by vegetation, although many drier parts of these Native lands also have active and partly active dunes. Current prolonged drought conditions that started in the mid-1990s are producing significant changes in dune mobility. Reactivation of regional aeolian deposits due to drought or increasing aridity from rising temperatures resulting from climate change could have serious consequences for human and animal populations, agriculture, grazing, and infrastructure. To understand and document the current and future potential for mobility, seasonally repeated surveys were used to track the location of multiple active barchan dunes. By utilizing Real-Time Kinematic GPS field surveys and simultaneously collecting in-situ meteorological data, it is possible to examine climatic parameters and seasonal variations that affect dune mobility and their relative influences. Through analysis of the recorded data, we examined the fit of various climate parameters, and demonstrate that under the current prolonged drought, wind power is the dominant factor controlling dune mobility.

Recent Developments in Gravity-Wave Effects in Climate Models and the Global Distribution of Gravity-Wave Momentum Flux from Observations and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-01

by changes in wind and stability to a vertical wavelength lying outside the observable range. Gravity-wave parametrizations also represent intermit ...tropopause variability. J. Atmos. Sci. 65: 1817–1837. Salby ML. 1982. Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. Part II: Fast Fourier synoptic

Mitigation activities in the forest sector to reduce emissions and enhance sinks of greenhouse gases

Treesearch

Richard Birdsey; Ralph Alig; Darius Adams

2000-01-01

In June 1992, representatives from 172 countries gathered at the "Earth Summit" in Rio de Janeiro to discuss environmental issues. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was adopted to achieve ". . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic...

The role of temperature variability in stabilizing the mountain pine beetle-fungus mutualism

Treesearch

A. L. Addison; J. A. Powell; D. L. Six; M. Moore; B. J. Bentz

2013-01-01

As global climate patterns continue to change and extreme weather events become increasingly common, it is likely that many ecological interactions will be affected. One such interaction is the multipartite symbiosis that exists between the mountain pine beetle and two species of fungi, Grosmannia clavigera and Ophiostoma montium. In this mutualism, the fungi provide...

Does biodiversity make a difference? Relationships between species richness, evolutionary diversity, and aboveground live tree biomass across US forests

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; Christopher W. Woodall

2014-01-01

Biodiversity conveys numerous functional benefits to forested ecosystems, including community stability and resilience. In the context of managing forests for climate change mitigation/adaptation, maximizing and/or maintaining aboveground biomass will require understanding the interactions between tree biodiversity, site productivity, and the stocking of live trees....

Sustainable forest management of tropical forests can reduce carbon emissions and stabilize timber production

Treesearch

N. Sasaki; G.P. Asner; Yude Pan; W. Knorr; P.B. Durst; H.O. Ma; I. Abe; A.J. Lowe; L.P. Koh

2016-01-01

The REDD+ scheme of the United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change has provided opportunities to manage tropical forests for timber production and carbon emission reductions. To determine the appropriate loggingtechniques, we analyzed potential timber production and carbon emission reductions under two logging techniques over a 40-year period of selective...

Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

2012-12-01

Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Caldeira, Ken; Keith, David W

2014-12-28

Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a tool that might reduce damage from anthropogenic climate change. Analysis often assumes that geoengineering would be used to maintain a constant global mean temperature. Under this scenario, geoengineering would be required either indefinitely (on societal time scales) or until atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sufficiently reduced. Impacts of climate change, however, are related to the rate of change as well as its magnitude. We thus describe an alternative scenario in which solar geoengineering is used only to constrain the rate of change of global mean temperature; this leads to a finite deployment period for any emissions pathway that stabilizes global mean temperature. The length of deployment and amount of geoengineering required depends on the emissions pathway and allowable rate of change, e.g. in our simulations, reducing the maximum approximately 0.3°C per decade rate of change in an RCP 4.5 pathway to 0.1°C per decade would require geoengineering for 160 years; under RCP 6.0, the required time nearly doubles. We demonstrate that feedback control can limit rates of change in a climate model. Finally, we note that a decision to terminate use of solar geoengineering does not automatically imply rapid temperature increases: feedback could be used to limit rates of change in a gradual phase-out. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

I. Climate change on ancient Mars. II. Exoplanet geodynamics and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kite, Edwin Stephen

This thesis describes work related to long-term climate stability, on Mars and exoplanets. Mars is the only planet known to record a major transition in planetary habitability. The evidence for surface temperatures near the melting point of water on Early Mars is difficult to explain, because theory predicts a faint young Sun. Seasonal snowmelt need not require high annual mean temperatures, but surface water ice tends to migrate away from the warmer regions of the planet where melting is energetically possible. In the first part of this thesis I use geological analysis, mesoscale models, and idealized surface energy balance models to examine two possible solutions to this problem. Impacts into icy targets, groundwater outbursts, and phreatic explosions are all expected to inject water vapor into the Mars atmosphere. I use mesoscale models to track the atmospheric response to these transient, localized vapor sources. Using idealized boundary conditions, I show that storms with updraft speeds >50 m/s and localized precipitation are expected near transient lakes >103 km2 in size. Snow deposited in this way is out of equilibrium with orbital forcing, and correspondingly more likely to melt. Canyon paleolakes in the Valles Marineris are frequently associated with streams preserved on the plateaux just downwind of the canyons. Using geologically realistic boundary conditions, I study the atmospheric response to two short-lived paleolakes. In each case, the plateau streams are in the locations expected for localized precipitation. Liquid water availability favors lithification, so the Martian sedimentary rock record is a wet-pass filter. Orbital variability strongly affects liquid water availability, so considering only averaged orbital conditions is neither sufficient not appropriate. To find the likelihood of snow melting, I consider all possible orbital forcings using an idealized but self-consistent model of snowpack energy balance and the CO2 greenhouse effect. Seasonal snowmelt on Early Mars is possible under unusual orbital conditions provided that the snow is dust-contaminated. The predicted distribution of snowmelt can explain the distribution of sedimentary rocks on Mars, but only if Mars had a thin atmosphere when the sedimentary rocks formed. This framework is the first to link upcoming observations by the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover at the lower Gale Crater mound to past global climate on Mars. The model makes predictions about the lower Gale Crater mound that can be tested using Curiosity rover data. Earth is the only example of long term climate stability that is available for study, so long term climate stability is difficult to understand. Extrasolar planets may ameliorate this problem of uniqueness. It is clear that rates of volcanic activity and of surface weathering are important in regulating long term climate. In the second part of this thesis, I model the rate of volcanism on massive Earth-like planets, and the surface weathering rate on planets in 1:1 spin:orbit resonance. "Super-Earths" in the range 1-10 Earth masses have been detected by radial velocity and transit methods. Using an idealized mantle thermal evolution model to drive mantle-melting models, I show that the rate of volcanism on massive Earth like planets is a weak function of planet mass. Planet mass can, however, affect tectonics by changing the mode of mantle convection. Earth's climate stability depends on a negative feedback involving the temperature-dependent rate of weathering and mean surface temperature. I use an idealized model to show that for intermediate surface pressures and for low-opacity atmospheres, nonlinearities in the surface energy balance can reverse the sign of this dependence on tidally-locked planets. This leads to climate instability. I conclude by discussing future observations and research aimed at understanding long-term climate stability.

Combined effects of climate change and bank stabilization on shallow water habitats of chinook salmon.

PubMed

Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; McClure, Michelle M; Sheer, Mindi B; Munn, Nancy L

2013-12-01

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low-sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act-mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999-2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April-June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April-June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17-32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life-history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions' long-term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook. Conservation Biology © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Climate change alters stability and species potential interactions in a large marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Griffith, Gary P; Strutton, Peter G; Semmens, Jayson M

2018-01-01

We have little empirical evidence of how large-scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (>1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current, but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large-scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

2017-04-01

Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

Vegetated dune morphodynamics during recent stabilization of the Mu Us dune field, north-central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiwei; Mason, Joseph A.; Lu, Huayu

2015-01-01

The response of dune fields to changing environmental conditions can be better understood by investigating how changing vegetation cover affects dune morphodynamics. Significant increases in vegetation and widespread dune stabilization over the years 2000-2012 are evident in high-resolution satellite imagery of the Mu Us dune field in north-central China, possibly a lagged response to changing wind strength and temperature since the 1970s. These trends provide an opportunity to study how dune morphology changes with increasing vegetation stabilization. Vegetation expansion occurs mainly by expansion of pre-existing patches in interdunes. As vegetation spreads from interdunes onto surrounding dunes, it modifies their shapes in competition with wind-driven sand movement, primarily in three ways: 1) vegetation anchoring horns of barchans transforms them to parabolic dunes; 2) vegetation colonizes stoss faces of barchan and transverse dunes, resulting in lower dune height and an elongated stoss face, with shortening of barchan horns; and 3) on transverse dunes, the lee face is fixed by plants that survive sand burial. Along each of these pathways of stabilization, dune morphology tends to change from more barchanoid to more parabolic forms, but that transformation is not always completed before full stabilization. Artificial stabilization leads to an extreme case of "frozen" barchans or transverse dunes with original shapes preserved by rapid establishment of vegetation. Observations in the Mu Us dune field emphasize the point that vegetation growth and aeolian sand transport not only respond to external factors such as climate but also interact with each other. For example, some barchans lose sand mass during vegetation fixation, and actually migrate faster as they become smaller, and vegetation growth on a barchan's lower stoss face may alter sand transport over the dune in a way that favors more rapid stabilization. Conceptual models were generalized for the development of vegetation-stabilized dunes, which should be helpful in better understanding of vegetated dune morphology, model verification and prediction, and guiding practical dune stabilization efforts.

The relationship between mammal faunas and climatic instability since the Last Glacial Maximum: A Nearctic vs. Western Palearctic comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Romero, Erik Joaquín; Varela, Sara; Fisher, Jason T.; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Á.

2017-07-01

Climate has played a key role in shaping the geographic patterns of biodiversity. The imprint of Quaternary climatic fluctuations is particularly evident on the geographic distribution of Holarctic faunas, which dramatically shifted their ranges following the alternation of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene. Here, we evaluate the existence of differences between climatically stable and unstable regions - defined on the basis of climatic change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum - in the geographic distribution of several biological attributes of extant terrestrial mammals of the Nearctic and Western Palearctic regions. Specifically, we use a macroecological approach to assess the dissimilarities in species richness, range size, body size, longevity and litter size of species that inhabit regions with contrasting histories of climatic stability. While several studies have documented how the distributional ranges of animals can be affected by long-term historic climatic fluctuations, there is less evidence on the species-specific traits that determine their responsiveness under such climatic instability. We find that climatically unstable areas have more widespread species and lower mammal richness than stable regions in both continents. We detected stronger signatures of historical climatic instability on the geographic distribution of body size in the Nearctic region, possibly reflecting lagged responses to recolonize deglaciated regions. However, the way that animals respond to climatic fluctuations varies widely among species and we were unable to find a relationship between climatic instability and other mammal life-history traits (longevity and litter size) in any of the two biogeographic regions. We, therefore, conclude that beyond some biological traits typical of macroecological analyses such as geographic range size and body size, it is difficult to infer the responsiveness of species distributions to climate change solely based on particular life-history traits.

Environmental and Ecological Effects of Climate Change on Venomous Marine and Amphibious Species in the Wilderness.

PubMed

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy B

2018-06-25

Recent analyses of data show a warming trend in global average air and sea surface ocean temperatures. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, the sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. This article will focus on climate change and projected effects on venomous marine and amphibious creatures with the potential impact on human health. Retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous aquatic and amphibious creatures. Species included venomous jellyfish, poisonous fish, crown-of-thorns starfish, sea snakes, and toxic frogs. In several projected scenarios, rising temperatures, weather extremes, and shifts in seasons will increase poisonous population numbers, particularly with certain marine creatures like jellyfish and crown-of-thorns starfish. Habitat expansions by lionfish and sea snakes are projected to occur. These phenomena, along with increases in human populations and coastal development will likely increase human-animal encounters. Other species, particularly amphibious toxic frogs, are declining rapidly due to their sensitivity to any temperature change or subtle alterations in the stability of their environment. If temperatures continue to rise to record levels over the next decades, it is predicted that the populations of these once plentiful and critically important animals to the aquatic ecosystem will decline and their geographic distributions will shrink. Review of the literature investigating the effect and forecasts of climate change on venomous marine and amphibious creatures has demonstrated that temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms will likely have a dramatic effect on these toxicological organisms. The effects of climate change on these species through temperature alteration and rising coastal waters will influence each species differently and in turn potentially affect commercial industries, travel, tourism, and human health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessment of Blue Carbon Storage by Baja California (Mexico) Tidal Wetlands and Evidence for Wetland Stability in the Face of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts

PubMed Central

Watson, Elizabeth Burke

2017-01-01

Although saline tidal wetlands cover less than a fraction of one percent of the earth’s surface (~0.01%), they efficiently sequester organic carbon due to high rates of primary production coupled with surfaces that aggrade in response to sea level rise. Here, we report on multi-decadal changes (1972–2008) in the extent of tidal marshes and mangroves, and characterize soil carbon density and source, for five regions of tidal wetlands located on Baja California’s Pacific coast. Land-cover change analysis indicates the stability of tidal wetlands relative to anthropogenic and climate change impacts over the past four decades, with most changes resulting from natural coastal processes that are unique to arid environments. The disturbance of wetland soils in this region (to a depth of 50 cm) would liberate 2.55 Tg of organic carbon (C) or 9.36 Tg CO2eq. Based on stoichiometry and carbon stable isotope ratios, the source of organic carbon in these wetland sediments is derived from a combination of wetland macrophyte, algal, and phytoplankton sources. The reconstruction of natural wetland dynamics in Baja California provides a counterpoint to the history of wetland destruction elsewhere in North America, and measurements provide new insights on the control of carbon sequestration in arid wetlands. PMID:29295540

Stability of organic carbon in deep soil layers controlled by fresh carbon supply.

PubMed

Fontaine, Sébastien; Barot, Sébastien; Barré, Pierre; Bdioui, Nadia; Mary, Bruno; Rumpel, Cornelia

2007-11-08

The world's soils store more carbon than is present in biomass and in the atmosphere. Little is known, however, about the factors controlling the stability of soil organic carbon stocks and the response of the soil carbon pool to climate change remains uncertain. We investigated the stability of carbon in deep soil layers in one soil profile by combining physical and chemical characterization of organic carbon, soil incubations and radiocarbon dating. Here we show that the supply of fresh plant-derived carbon to the subsoil (0.6-0.8 m depth) stimulated the microbial mineralization of 2,567 +/- 226-year-old carbon. Our results support the previously suggested idea that in the absence of fresh organic carbon, an essential source of energy for soil microbes, the stability of organic carbon in deep soil layers is maintained. We propose that a lack of supply of fresh carbon may prevent the decomposition of the organic carbon pool in deep soil layers in response to future changes in temperature. Any change in land use and agricultural practice that increases the distribution of fresh carbon along the soil profile could however stimulate the loss of ancient buried carbon.

Stable Water Use Efficiency under Climate Change of Three Sympatric Conifer Species at the Alpine Treeline

PubMed Central

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas; Leo, Marco; Matyssek, Rainer; Grams, Thorsten Erhard Edgar

2016-01-01

The ability of treeline associated conifers in the Central Alps to cope with recent climate warming and increasing CO2 concentration is still poorly understood. We determined tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Pinus cembra, Picea abies, and Larix decidua trees from 1975 to 2010. Stable isotope ratios were compared with leaf level gas exchange measurements carried out in situ between 1979 and 2007. Results indicate that tree ring derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of P. cembra, P. abies and L. decidua remained constant during the last 36 years despite climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2. Temporal patterns in Δ13C and Δ18O mirrored leaf level gas exchange assessments, suggesting parallel increases of CO2-fixation and stomatal conductance of treeline conifer species. As at the study site soil water availability was not a limiting factor iWUE remained largely stable throughout the study period. The stability in iWUE was accompanied by an increase in basal area increment (BAI) suggesting that treeline trees benefit from both recent climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Finally, our results suggest that iWUE may not change species composition at treeline in the Austrian Alps due to similar ecophysiological responses to climatic changes of the three sympatric study species. PMID:27375653

Modern climate challenges and the geological record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2010-01-01

Today's changing climate poses challenges about the influence of human activity, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes, the natural variability of Earth's climate, and complex feedback processes. Ice core and instrumental records show that over the last century, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have risen to 390 parts per million volume (ppmv), about 40% above pre-Industrial Age concentrations of 280 ppmv and nearly twice those of the last glacial maximum about 22,000 years ago. Similar historical increases are recorded in atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). There is general agreement that human activity is largely responsible for these trends. Substantial evidence also suggests that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations are responsible for much of the recent atmospheric and oceanic warming, rising sea level, declining Arctic sea-ice cover, retreating glaciers and small ice caps, decreased mass balance of the Greenland and parts of the Antarctic ice sheets, and decreasing ocean pH (ocean "acidification"). Elevated CO2 concentrations raise concern not only from observations of the climate system, but because feedbacks associated with reduced reflectivity from in land and sea ice, sea level, and land vegetation relatively slowly (centuries or longer) to elevated 2 levels. This means that additional human-induced climate change is expected even if the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced or concentrations immediately stabilized.

From Abrupt Change to the Future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, T.

2009-04-01

The award of the Oeschger Medal 2009 is a particular honor and pleasure for me as I was given the chance to take over from Hans Oeschger the lead of a wonderful Institute at the University of Bern in 1993. Very apprehensive first, in front of the huge expectations and challenges, I quickly found dear colleagues, close collaborators and extremely supportive staff who all dedicated their time and creativity to work for the common goal of better understanding the Earth System, its variations in the past and its sensitivity to perturbations that man is inflicting on it today. Although met with innate skepticism first by the experimental physicists, our efforts in modelling, particularly the approach of using climate models of reduced complexity, quickly paid off and provided added value to the hard won data and measurements from polar ice cores. It is clear that modelling in such a diverse environment is so much more stimulating and enriching than working on a sophisticated parameterisation in a big modelling centre. Simple models have suggested that the Earth System may have limited stability and that rather fundamental changes could be triggered by the increase of greenhouse gases. However, it is the unique results from polar ice cores, particularly from Greenland that showed that, indeed, the Earth System has limited stability and can react in extremely abrupt ways to changes in forcing. Likewise, the Antarctic ice cores have provided one of the corner stones of our knowledge about climate change: Concentrations of CO2 are today 29% higher than ever during the last 800,000 years. These two fundamental insights from the paleoclimatic archive call for accelerated research into the sensitivity of the climate system and its components to perturbations, as well as the investigation of feedback mechanisms in the biogeochemical cycles that are disturbed by the input of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and land use change. Our research has only scratched the surface and many questions are still unresolved. A consistent simulation of ice age cycles including the remarkable transition from the 40 kyr to 100 kyr world is still missing. Evidence for interhemispheric connection, a persistent feature of the last ice age, remains circumstantial during earlier ice ages. Recent ice core analyses suggest extremely rapid climate change in the high latitude which is faster than any model has suggested. Sea ice changes must play an important role in that they may operate as an efficient accelerator. Modelling results are reviewed which suggest that instabilities in sea ice coverage can occur in response to relatively slow changes of the background climate. Such behaviour has been demonstrated in simulations of future climate, but it may well apply to past abrupt climate change. The paleoclimate record may therefore hold much more and more detailed information about instabilities and surprises if marine and atmospheric proxies are combined. However, only through the combination of highest-resolution paleoclimatic data and a clever hierarchy of models are we able to address and resolve these questions.

U.N. climate convention goals may be out of reach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakefield, J.

The chief goal of the 1992 Rio climate convention may be unobtainable, recent reports indicate, as nations are gearing up for the first conference on the U.N. framework in Geneva, August 22—September 2. And even if the convention goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 is reached, some experts say, little would actually be accomplished to stabilize global climate change.For starters, reports earlier this month revealed that Japan and Australia, to name a couple, may be off the target. On a national level, Japan is projected to come in about 3% above the mark. Australia may even withdraw from the convention for economic reasons, according to Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans.

The Role of Religious and Scientific Leaders in Bringing Awareness to the Urgency of Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.

2015-12-01

The release of the Encyclical by Pope Francis has opened a powerful new venue to bring forth the urgency of climate change to the public. The background work that preceded the encyclical was several years in the making. The Church has its own Science Academy, known as the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, consisting of 80 members from around the world with more than a third Nobel Laureates. The members are chosen for their scientific excellence (like most science academies of the world) and not for their religious affiliations. This academy organized a series of scientific meetings for the last 5 years, culminating in a 2014 workshop entitled: Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature , Our Responsibility, jointly organized with the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences. This meeting of the world's thought leaders in natural and Social sciences, came to a remarkable set of conclusions: Climate Change has become a moral issue. A fundamental change in our attitude towards natue and towards each other is required to solve the problem. Religious leaders can have a transformational effect by mobilizing public opinion for actions to stabilize climate change and protect the people. Being a council member of the Pontifical Academy and watching from within the powerful moral voice of Pope Francis, I conclude that this partnership with religion is a powerful new venue for those researchers, reticent about publicly voicing their grave concerns to pursue. We are going to bring massive public support for urgent actions only when the impacts of climate change and its origins are taught in every church, every temple, every mosque, every synagogue, and other places of worship.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

2018-01-17

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Denudational slope processes on weathered basalt in northern California: 130 ka history of soil development, periods of slope stability and colluviation, and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Eric; Harrison, Bruce; Baldwin, John; Page, William; Rood, Dylan

2017-04-01

The geomorphic history of hillslope evolution is controlled by multiple types of denudational processes. Detailed analysis of hillslope soil-stratigraphy provides a means to identify the timing of periods of slope stability and non-stability, evidence of the types of denudational processes, and possible links to climatic drivers. Moreover, the degree of soil formation and the presence of buried or truncated soils provide evidence of the relative age of alternating periods of colluviation and stability. We use evaluation of soil stratigraphy, for a small forested hillslope (<500 m of slope length) located in the Cascades of northern California, to elucidate both the timing and processes controlling 130 ka of hillslope evolution. The soils and slope colluvium are derived from highly weathered basalt. Stratigraphic interpretation is reinforced with soil profile development index (PDI) derived age estimates, tephrochronology, luminescence ages on colluvium, and He3 nuclide exposure dates. Soils formed along hilltop ridges are well developed and reflect deep (>2-3 m) in-situ weathering of the basalt bedrock. PDI age estimates and He3 exposure dates indicate that these hilltop soils had been in place for 100-130 ka, implying a long period of relative surface stability. At about 40-30 ka, soil stratigraphy indicates the onset of 3 distinct cycles of denudation of the hilltop and slopes. Evidence for changes in stability and onset of soil erosion is the presence of several buried soils formed in colluvium downslope of the hilltop. These buried soils have formed in sediment derived from erosion of the hilltop soils (i.e. soil parent material of previously weathered soil matrix and basalt cobbles). The oldest buried soil indicates that slope stability was re-established between 32-23 ka, with stability and soil formation lasting to about 10 ka. Soil-stratigraphy indicates that two additional intervals of downslope transport of sediment between 6-10 ka, and 2-5 ka. Soil properties indicate that the primary method of downslope transport is largely due to tree throw and faunal burrowing. Onset of slope instability at 40-30 ka appears to be related to changes in vegetation with establishment of a pine dominated forest (increase in tree throw) and/or onset of local faulting. By comparison, slope stability from 30-10 ka appears to be a related to the formation of a shrub dominated steppe and a decrease in tree throw. The two periods of slope erosion after 10 ka appear related to regional periods of pronounced channel incision. Results indicate that soil stratigraphy can provide a key record of slope evolution and related paleoenvironmental changes.

Denitrification nitrogen gas formation and gene expression in alpine grassland soil as affected by climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhe; Wang, Changhui; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Schloter, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

2013-04-01

Due to methodological problems, reliable data on soil dinitrogen (N2) emission by denitrification are extremely scarce, and the impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) gas formation by denitrification and N gas product ratios as well as the underlying microbial drivers remain unclear. We combined the helium-gas-flow-soil-core technique for simultaneously quantification of nitrous oxide (N2O) and N2 emission with the reverse transcript qPCR technology. Our goals were to characterize denitrification dynamics and N gas product ratios in alpine grassland soil as affected by climate change conditions and to evaluate relationships between denitrification gene expression and N gas emission. We used soils from the pre-alpine grassland Terrestrial Environmental Observatory (TERENO), exposed to ambient temperature and precipitation (control treatment), or three years of simulated climate change conditions (increased temperature, reduction of summer precipitation and reduced snow cover). Soils were amended with glucose and nitrate and incubated subsequently at 1) 5°C and 20% oxygen; 2) 5°C and 0% oxygen; 3) 20°C and 0% oxygen until stabilization of N gas emissions in each incubation step. After switching incubation conditions to 0% oxygen and 20°C, N2O emission peaked immediately and declined again, followed by a delayed peak in N2 emission. The dynamics of cnorB gene expression, encoding the reduction of nitric oxide (NO) to N2O, followed the N2O emission pattern, while nosZ gene expression, encoding N2O reduction to N2 followed the course of N2 emission. The mean N2O:N2 ratios were 1.31 + 0.10 and 1.56 + 0.16 for control and climate change treatment respectively, but the denitrification potential was overall lower in climate change treatment. Hence, simulated climate change promoted N2O but lessened N2 emission. This stimulation of N2O was in accordance with increased cnorB gene expression in soil of the climate change treatment. N mass balance calculations revealed that denitrification N gas formation accounted for 21%, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium for 8%, and microbial immobilization for 73% of nitrate consumption. Overall, our study shows that changes in climate exert feedback on denitrification N gas formation and N gas product ratios via changes in microbial activity at the level of single denitrification steps. The close relationships found between denitrification N gas formation, N gas product ratios and denitrification gene expression suggests a large potential of molecular methods to predict denitrification dynamics in soil.

Temporal and spatial influences incur reconfiguration of Arctic heathland soil bacterial community structure.

PubMed

Hill, Richard; Saetnan, Eli R; Scullion, John; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Ostle, Nick; Edwards, Arwyn

2016-06-01

Microbial responses to Arctic climate change could radically alter the stability of major stores of soil carbon. However, the sensitivity of plot-scale experiments simulating climate change effects on Arctic heathland soils to potential confounding effects of spatial and temporal changes in soil microbial communities is unknown. Here, the variation in heathland soil bacterial communities at two survey sites in Sweden between spring and summer 2013 and at scales between 0-1 m and, 1-100 m and between sites (> 100 m) were investigated in parallel using 16S rRNA gene T-RFLP and amplicon sequencing. T-RFLP did not reveal spatial structuring of communities at scales < 100 m in any site or season. However, temporal changes were striking. Amplicon sequencing corroborated shifts from r- to K-selected taxon-dominated communities, influencing in silico predictions of functional potential. Network analyses reveal temporal keystone taxa, with a spring betaproteobacterial sub-network centred upon a Burkholderia operational taxonomic unit (OTU) and a reconfiguration to a summer sub-network centred upon an alphaproteobacterial OTU. Although spatial structuring effects may not confound comparison between plot-scale treatments, temporal change is a significant influence. Moreover, the prominence of two temporally exclusive keystone taxa suggests that the stability of Arctic heathland soil bacterial communities could be disproportionally influenced by seasonal perturbations affecting individual taxa. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née.

PubMed

Gugger, Paul F; Ikegami, Makihiko; Sork, Victoria L

2013-07-01

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate-based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large-scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28-1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11-18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion-contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of current climate, historical climate stability and topography on species richness and endemism in Mesoamerican geophyte plants

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background A number of biotic and abiotic factors have been proposed as drivers of geographic variation in species richness. As biotic elements, inter-specific interactions are the most widely recognized. Among abiotic factors, in particular for plants, climate and topographic variables as well as their historical variation have been correlated with species richness and endemism. In this study, we determine the extent to which the species richness and endemism of monocot geophyte species in Mesoamerica is predicted by current climate, historical climate stability and topography. Methods Using approximately 2,650 occurrence points representing 507 geophyte taxa, species richness (SR) and weighted endemism (WE) were estimated at a geographic scale using grids of 0.5 × 0.5 decimal degrees resolution using Mexico as the geographic extent. SR and WE were also estimated using species distributions inferred from ecological niche modeling for species with at least five spatially unique occurrence points. Current climate, current to Last Glacial Maximum temperature, precipitation stability and topographic features were used as predictor variables on multiple spatial regression analyses (i.e., spatial autoregressive models, SAR) using the estimates of SR and WE as response variables. The standardized coefficients of the predictor variables that were significant in the regression models were utilized to understand the observed patterns of species richness and endemism. Results Our estimates of SR and WE based on direct occurrence data and distribution modeling generally yielded similar results, though estimates based on ecological niche modeling indicated broader distribution areas for SR and WE than when species richness was directly estimated using georeferenced coordinates. The SR and WE of monocot geophytes were highest along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, in both cases with higher levels in the central area of this mountain chain. Richness and endemism were also elevated in the southern regions of the Sierra Madre Oriental and Occidental mountain ranges, and in the Tehuacán Valley. Some areas of the Sierra Madre del Sur and Sierra Madre Oriental had high levels of WE, though they are not the areas with the highest SR. The spatial regressions suggest that SR is mostly influenced by current climate, whereas endemism is mainly affected by topography and precipitation stability. Conclusions Both methods (direct occurrence data and ecological niche modeling) used to estimate SR and WE in this study yielded similar results and detected a key area that should be considered in plant conservation strategies: the central region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Our results also corroborated that species richness is more closely correlated with current climate factors while endemism is related to differences in topography and to changes in precipitation levels compared to the LGM climatic conditions. PMID:29062605

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation

PubMed Central

Schneider, Richard R.; Bayne, Erin M.

2015-01-01

Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous. PMID:25978759

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

2014-05-01

Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.

PubMed

Holmberg, Maria; Aherne, Julian; Austnes, Kari; Beloica, Jelena; De Marco, Alessandra; Dirnböck, Thomas; Fornasier, Maria Francesca; Goergen, Klaus; Futter, Martyn; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Krám, Pavel; Neirynck, Johan; Nieminen, Tiina Maileena; Pecka, Tomasz; Posch, Maximilian; Pröll, Gisela; Rowe, Ed C; Scheuschner, Thomas; Schlutow, Angela; Valinia, Salar; Forsius, Martin

2018-05-31

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tree-ring growth of Scots pine, Common beech and Pedunculate oak under future climate in northeastern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurasinski, Gerald; Scharnweber, Tobias; Schröder, Christian; Lennartz, Bernd; Bauwe, Andreas

2017-04-01

Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus syl- vestris L.) at three pure stands, and for Common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested with a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R2s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates depending on the position along the climatic gradient. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that in Northeastern Germany Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas Common beech and Pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak in the region.

Impacts of Landuse Management and Climate Change on Landslides Susceptibility over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Adam, J. C.

2009-12-01

The commercial forests on the western side of the Olympic Mountains in Washington State are a region of steep slopes and high annual rainfall (2500-6000 mm/year) and are therefore highly susceptible to landslides. Potential climatic change (more intense and frequent winter storms) may exacerbate landslide susceptibility unless forest management practices are changed. As this area is a critical habitat for numerous organisms, including salmon, this may result in potentially severe consequences to riparian habitat due to increased sediment loads. Therefore, there is a need to investigate potential forest management plans to promote the economic viability of timber extraction while protecting the natural habitat, particularly in riparian areas. The objective of this study is to predict the long term effects of forest management decisions under projected climate change on slope stability. We applied the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with its sediment module to simulate mass wasting and sediment delivery under different vegetation and climate scenarios. Sub-basins were selected and classified according to elevation, slope, land cover and soil type. Various land management practices (such as clear-cutting in riparian areas, logging under short rotations, varying amount of timbers left intact in riparian areas) were applied to each of the selected sub-basins. DHSVM was used to simulate landslide volume, frequency, and sediment loads for each of the land cover applications under various future climate scenarios. We comment on the suitability of various harvesting techniques for different parts of the forest to minimize landslide-induced sediment loading to streams in an altered climate. This approach can be developed as a decision making tool that can be used by forest managers to make long-term planning decisions.

[Environmental behavior and effect of biomass-derived black carbon in soil: a review].

PubMed

Liu, Yu-Xue; Liu, Wei; Wu, Wei-Xiang; Zhong, Zhe-Ke; Chen, Ying-Xu

2009-04-01

Biomass-derived black carbon, also named biochar, has the characteristics of high stability against decay and high capability of adsorption, and can affect the environment through its interactions with climate and geology, playing a significant role in global climate change, carbon biogeochemical cycle, and environmental system. In recent years, more and more researchers in the fields of atmospheric sciences, geology, and environmental science focused on the environmental behavior and effect of biochar. As one possible source of the components with high aromatic structure in soil humus, biochar is of great importance in increasing soil carbon storage and improving soil fertility, and in maintaining the balance of soil ecosystem. This paper offered the latest information regarding the characteristics and biotic and abiotic oxidation mechanisms of biochar, its effects on global climate change, and the environmental effect of biochar in soil. Research prospects were briefly discussed on the environmental behavior and effect of biochar in soil ecosystem.

Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.

PubMed

Parker, Cindy L

2011-08-01

Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change.

Increased autumn rainfall disrupts predator-prey interactions in fragmented boreal forests.

PubMed

Terraube, Julien; Villers, Alexandre; Poudré, Léo; Varjonen, Rauno; Korpimäki, Erkki

2017-04-01

There is a pressing need to understand how changing climate interacts with land-use change to affect predator-prey interactions in fragmented landscapes. This is particularly true in boreal ecosystems facing fast climate change and intensification in forestry practices. Here, we investigated the relative influence of autumn climate and habitat quality on the food-storing behaviour of a generalist predator, the pygmy owl, using a unique data set of 15 850 prey items recorded in western Finland over 12 years. Our results highlighted strong effects of autumn climate (number of days with rainfall and with temperature <0 °C) on food-store composition. Increasing frequency of days with precipitation in autumn triggered a decrease in (i) total prey biomass stored, (ii) the number of bank voles (main prey) stored, and (iii) the scaled mass index of pygmy owls. Increasing proportions of old spruce forests strengthened the functional response of owls to variations in vole abundance and were more prone to switch from main prey to alternative prey (passerine birds) depending on local climate conditions. High-quality habitat may allow pygmy owls to buffer negative effects of inclement weather and cyclic variation in vole abundance. Additionally, our results evidenced sex-specific trends in body condition, as the scaled mass index of smaller males increased while the scaled mass index of larger females decreased over the study period, probably due to sex-specific foraging strategies and energy requirements. Long-term temporal stability in local vole abundance refutes the hypothesis of climate-driven change in vole abundance and suggests that rainier autumns could reduce the vulnerability of small mammals to predation by pygmy owls. As small rodents are key prey species for many predators in northern ecosystems, our findings raise concern about the impact of global change on boreal food webs through changes in main prey vulnerability. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Novak, M.H.

1997-12-31

This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countriesmore » are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.« less

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Aggregate stability as an indicator of soil erodibility and soil physical quality: review and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bissonnais, Yves; Chenu, Claire; Darboux, Frédéric; Duval, Odile; Legout, Cédric; Leguédois, Sophie; Gumiere, Silvio

2010-05-01

Aggregate breakdown due to water and rain action may cause surface crusting, slumping, a reduction of infiltration and interrill erosion. Aggregate stability determines the capacity of aggregates to resist the effects of water and rainfall. In this paper, we evaluated and reviewed the relevance of an aggregate stability measurement to characterize soil physical properties as well as to analyse the processes involved in these properties. Stability measurement assesses the sensitivity of soil aggregates to various basic disaggregation mechanisms such as slaking, differential swelling, dispersion and mechanical breakdown. It has been showed that aggregate size distributions of structural stability tests matched the size distributions of eroded aggregates under rainfall simulations and that erosion amount was well predicted using aggregate stability indexes. It means stability tests could be used to estimate both the erodibility and the size fractions that are available for crust formation and erosion processes. Several studies showed that organic matter was one of the main soil properties affecting soil stability. However, it has also been showed that aggregate stability of a given soil could vary within a year or between years. The factors controlling such changes have still to be specified. Aggregate stability appears therefore as a complex property, depending both on permanent soil characteristics and on dynamic factors such as the crusting stage, the climate and the biological activity. Despite, and may be, because of this complexity, aggregate stability seems an integrative and powerful indicator of soil physical quality. Future research efforts should look at the causes of short-term changes of structural stability, in order to fully understand all its aspects.

Pollen-climate relationships in time (9 ka, 6 ka, 0 ka) and space (upland vs. lowland) in eastern continental Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fang; Cao, Xianyong; Dallmeyer, Anne; Zhao, Yan; Ni, Jian; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-01-01

Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation-climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mtwa) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen-climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of Pann compared with Mtwa for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of Pann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate-tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation-climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen-climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation-climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

2013-02-01

SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

Climate, atmosphere, and volatile inventory evolution: Polar processes, climate records, volatile inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, J. B.

1988-01-01

Climate change on Mars was driven by long term changes in the solar luminosity, variations in the partitioning of volatiles between the atmosphere and near-surface reservoirs, and astronomical variations in axial and orbital properties. There are important parallels between these drives for Mars and comparable ones for Earth. In the early history of the solar system, the Sun's luminosity was 25 to 30 percent lower than its current value. It is suggested that an early benign climate on Earth was due to the presence of much more carbon dioxide in its atmosphere at these early times than currently resides there. Such a partitioning of carbon dioxide, at the expense of the carbonate rock reservoir, may have resulted from a more vigorous tectonic and volcanic style at early times. Such a line of reasoning may imply that much more carbon dioxide was present in the Martian atmosphere during the planet's early history than resides there today. It is now widely recognized that astronomical variations of the Earth's axial and orbital characteristics have played a dominant role in causing the succession of glacial and interglacial periods characterizing the last several million years. The magnitude of the axial and eccentricity variations are much larger for Mars than for Earth. Such changes on Mars could result in sizeable variations in atmospheric pressure, dust storm activity, and the stability of perennial carbon dioxide and water ice polar caps. These quasi-periodic climate changes occur on periods of 100,000 to 1,000,000 years and may be recorded in the sedimentary layers of the polar layered terrain.

An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goodstein, Eban S; Huntington, Henry P

2013-12-01

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

Between Too Little and Too Late: Political Opportunity Costs in Climate Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Vandenbergh, M. P.

2014-12-01

Discussion of climate policy has focused almost exclusively on comprehensive regulatory instruments to price emissions with tradeable permits or emissions taxes. More recently, a number of proposals have been advanced to abandon comprehensive emissions pricing in favor of focusing exclusively on clean-energy innovation. Neither approach adequately accounts for the combination of timing and scale. Advocates of emissions pricing are persuasive that this is the most likely way to reduce emissions sufficiently to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at desirable levels. However, as innovation advocates point out, the political climate is inhospitable to such sweeping regulations and it is unlikely that comprehensive carbon pricing can be enacted and implemented in the next decade. However, clean-energy innovation by itself is a high-stakes gamble that may fail to reduce emissions sufficiently to stabilize GHG concentrations, and may reduce support for the kind of comprehensive pricing measures that could stabilize GHG concentrations.We propose that analysis of climate policies take account of the opportunity costs associated with the process of enacting a proposed policy: If one measure is much more controversial than another, how does the difference in time necessary to persuade the public and legislators to adopt them affect their ultimate impact? As General Patton is reputed to have said, "A good solution applied with vigor now is better than a perfect solution applied ten minutes later." Similarly, it is important to consider whether adopting one measure would build or erode support for complementary ones. As an example, we consider the largely neglected role of nonregulatory measures, such as private governance and household-level behavior change, as examples of actions that could buy time by producing rapid, although modest, impacts without eroding support for more comprehensive measures later on.

Interdisciplinary approaches to understanding disease emergence: the past, present, and future drivers of Nipah virus emergence.

PubMed

Daszak, Peter; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Bogich, Tiffany L; Fernandez, Miguel; Epstein, Jonathan H; Murray, Kris A; Hamilton, Healy

2013-02-26

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose a significant threat to human health, economic stability, and biodiversity. Despite this, the mechanisms underlying disease emergence are still not fully understood, and control measures rely heavily on mitigating the impact of EIDs after they have emerged. Here, we highlight the emergence of a zoonotic Henipavirus, Nipah virus, to demonstrate the interdisciplinary and macroecological approaches necessary to understand EID emergence. Previous work suggests that Nipah virus emerged due to the interaction of the wildlife reservoir (Pteropus spp. fruit bats) with intensively managed livestock. The emergence of this and other henipaviruses involves interactions among a suite of anthropogenic environmental changes, socioeconomic factors, and changes in demography that overlay and interact with the distribution of these pathogens in their wildlife reservoirs. Here, we demonstrate how ecological niche modeling may be used to investigate the potential role of a changing climate on the future risk for Henipavirus emergence. We show that the distribution of Henipavirus reservoirs, and therefore henipaviruses, will likely change under climate change scenarios, a fundamental precondition for disease emergence in humans. We assess the variation among climate models to estimate where Henipavirus host distribution is most likely to expand, contract, or remain stable, presenting new risks for human health. We conclude that there is substantial potential to use this modeling framework to explore the distribution of wildlife hosts under a changing climate. These approaches may directly inform current and future management and surveillance strategies aiming to improve pathogen detection and, ultimately, reduce emergence risk.

Interactions between carbon sequestration and shade tree diversity in a smallholder coffee cooperative in El Salvador.

PubMed

Richards, Meryl Breton; Méndez, V Ernesto

2014-04-01

Agroforestry systems have substantial potential to conserve native biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. In particular, agroforestry systems have the potential to conserve native tree diversity and sequester carbon for climate change mitigation. However, little research has been conducted on the temporal stability of species diversity and aboveground carbon stocks in these systems or the relation between species diversity and aboveground carbon sequestration. We measured changes in shade-tree diversity and shade-tree carbon stocks in 14 plots of a 35-ha coffee cooperative over 9 years and analyzed relations between species diversity and carbon sequestration. Carbon sequestration was positively correlated with initial species richness of shade trees. Species diversity of shade trees did not change significantly over the study period, but carbon stocks increased due to tree growth. Our results show a potential for carbon sequestration and long-term biodiversity conservation in smallholder coffee agroforestry systems and illustrate the opportunity for synergies between biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Resistance to thermal stress in corals without changes in symbiont composition.

PubMed

Bellantuono, Anthony J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Rodriguez-Lanetty, Mauricio

2012-03-22

Discovering how corals can adjust their thermal sensitivity in the context of global climate change is important in understanding the long-term persistence of coral reefs. In this study, we showed that short-term preconditioning to higher temperatures, 3°C below the experimentally determined bleaching threshold, for a period of 10 days provides thermal tolerance for the symbiosis stability between the scleractinian coral, Acropora millepora and Symbiodinium. Based on genotypic analysis, our results indicate that the acclimatization of this coral species to thermal stress does not come down to simple changes in Symbiodinium and/or the bacterial communities that associate with reef-building corals. This suggests that the physiological plasticity of the host and/or symbiotic components appears to play an important role in responding to ocean warming. The further study of host and symbiont physiology, both of Symbiodinium and prokaryotes, is of paramount importance in the context of global climate change, as mechanisms for rapid holobiont acclimatization will become increasingly important to the long-standing persistence of coral reefs.

Emergent properties of climate-vegetation feedbacks in the North American Monsoon Macrosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.

2012-12-01

The ability of ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and associated disturbances (e.g. wildfires, spread of invasive species) is greatly affected by the stability of feedback interactions between climate and vegetation. In order to study climate-vegetation interactions, such as CO2 and H2O exchange in the North American Monsoon System (NAMS), we plan to couple a community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) used in regional climate models (WRF) with an individual based, spatially explicit vegetation model (ECOTONE). Individual based modeling makes it possible to link individual plant traits with properties of plant communities. Community properties, such as species composition and species distribution arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with each other, and with their environment. Plants interact with each other through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen), and the outcome of these interactions depends on the properties of the plant community and the environment itself. In turn, the environment is affected by the resulting change in community structure, which may have an impact on the drivers of climate change. First, we performed sensitivity tests of ECOTONE to assess its ability to reproduce vegetation distribution in the NAMS. We compared the land surface model and ECOTONE with regard to their capability to accurately simulate soil moisture, CO2 flux and above ground biomass. For evaluating the models we used the eddy-correlation sensible and latent heat fluxes, CO2 flux and observations of other climate and environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and moisture) from the Santa Rita experimental range. The model intercomparison helped us understand the advantages and disadvantages of each model, providing us guidance for coupling the community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) with ECOTONE.

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jafarov, Elchin E.; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Genet, Helene; McGuire, Anthony David; Marchenko, Sergey S.

2013-01-01

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems? We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ~80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ~30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

2018-01-01

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Large scale afforestation projects mitigate degradation and increase the stability of the karst ecosystems in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Y.; Tong, X.; Wang, K.; Fensholt, R.; Brandt, M.

2017-12-01

With the aim to combat desertification and improve the ecological environment, mega-engineering afforestation projects have been launched in the karst regions of southwest China around the turn of the new millennium. A positive impact of these projects on vegetation cover has been shown, however, it remains unclear if conservation efforts have been able to effectively restore ecosystem properties and reduce the sensitivity of the karst ecosystem to climate variations at large scales. Here we use passive microwave and optical satellite time series data combined with the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and show widespread increase in vegetation cover with a clear demarcation at the Chinese national border contrasting the conditions of neighboring countries. We apply a breakpoint detection to identify permanent changes in vegetation time series and assess the vegetation's sensitivity against climate before and after the breakpoints. A majority (74%) of the breakpoints were detected between 2001 and 2004 and are remarkably in line with the implementation and spatial extent of the Grain to Green project. We stratify the counties of the study area into four groups according to the extent of Grain to Green conservation areas and find distinct differences between the groups. Vegetation trends are similar prior to afforestation activities (1982-2000), but clearly diverge at a later stage, following the spatial extent of conservation areas. Moreover, vegetation cover dynamics were increasingly decoupled from climatic influence in areas of high conservation efforts. Whereas both vegetation resilience and resistance were considerably improved in areas with large conservation efforts thereby showing an increase in ecosystem stability, ongoing degradation and an amplified sensitivity to climate variability was found in areas with limited project implementation. Our study concludes that large scale conservation projects can regionally contribute to a greening Earth and are able to mitigate desertification by increasing the vegetation cover and reducing the ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, however, degradation remains a serious issue in the karst ecosystem of southwest China.

Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China.

PubMed

Zhu, Gengping; Fan, Jingyu; Peterson, A Townsend

2017-10-01

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050-2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080-2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China.

Climatic and Edaphic Effects on the Turnover and Composition of Mineral-Associated Soil Organic Matter in Temperate Deciduous Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jastrow, J. D.; Calderon, F. J.; McFarlane, K. J.; Porras, R. C.; Torn, M. S.; Guilderson, T. P.; Hanson, P. J.

2013-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) is the largest reservoir of carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. But, efforts to predict future changes in soil C stocks are challenged by our incomplete understanding of how soil C pools stabilized by different mechanisms will respond to changing climatic conditions and other environmental forcing factors. One approach to quantifying soil C pools of differing stability is to physically fractionate SOM into (1) a free light fraction representing an unprotected C pool, (2) an occluded light fraction characterizing a pool physically protected within aggregates, and (3) a mineral-associated dense fraction approximating a pool stabilized by organomineral interactions. Although the two light fractions are generally considered to be relatively homogenous pools, any assumption that the dense fraction represents a homogenous pool is problematic. To explore the potential for reducing the heterogeneity within the dense fraction, we isolated acid-hydrolyzable and acid-resistant C pools from the dense fraction at four sites representing a range of soil types and the climatic extent of Eastern deciduous forest. Soils were collected from before and after 14C-enriched leaf-litter manipulations at each site. Across all sites, 50-75% of the C in the dense fraction was acid-hydrolyzable, and the mean turnover time of C in this fraction was 1-2 orders of magnitude faster (~35-350 y) than that of the acid-resistant fraction (~300-1500 y). Remarkably, in some cases leaf-derived 14C accounted for up to about 5% of the C in one or both dense fraction pools after only 2 years, demonstrating the existence of a very rapid turnover component within both pools at some sites. Characterization of these mineral-associated C pools by mid-infrared spectroscopy showed variations in C chemistry across sites and site differences in the types of C isolated by hydrolysis. Taken together, these results demonstrate considerable differences within the Eastern deciduous forest in the dynamics of mineral-associated soil C pools that can be related to variations in climate, soil texture, and bioturbation.

[Stability of disintegration in health food].

PubMed

Ma, Lan; Zhao, Xin; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Dajin

2012-11-01

To study the change of disintegration of different formulation samples which stored in the artificial climate box or room temperature and provide the technical support for health food monitoring. According to the method of Chinese Pharmacopoeia and British Pharmacopoeia. Appendix XII A. Disintegration 2010. Disintegration of the non-accelerate, accelerated after 1, 2 and 3 months samples were determined by the disintegrator, respectively. Sample properties, the ingredients of the samples, the proportions of the capsule and treatment methods have some effect on the stability of the disintegration. The disintegration time of health food will be changed particularly after they were accelerated under the condition of (38 +/- 1) degrees C/75% RH. Especially the disintegration time of soft capsules were significantly prolonged. The composition and properties of samples were the main factors that affected the disintegration.

Effects of varying obliquity on Martian sublimation thermokarst landforms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dundas, Colin M.

2017-01-01

Scalloped depressions in the Martian mid-latitudes are likely formed by sublimation of ice-rich ground. The stability of subsurface ice changes with the planetary obliquity, generally becoming less stable at lower axial tilt. As a result, the relative rates of sublimation and creep change over time. A landscape evolution model shows that these variations produce internal structure in scalloped depressions, commonly in the form of arcuate ridges, which emerge as depressions resume growth after pausing or slowing. In other scenarios, the formation of internal structure is minimal. Significant uncertainties in past climate and model parameters permit a range of scenarios. Ridges observed in some Martian scalloped depressions could date from obliquity lows or periods of low ice stability occurring <5 Ma, suggesting that the pits are young features and may be actively evolving.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-01-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-03-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

2017-04-01

There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional disaster risk and the projection of typhoon is still highly uncertain and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation. Since Taiwan is a small island, different typhoon tracks induce different level of disaster impacts in watersheds. Therefore, more samples dynamic downscaled typhoon events are needed for analysis to improve and increase reliability in future. Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, developing a new statistical downscaling approach and new method to release daily climate change data to hourly data could be a short-term solution.

System Controls on the South Texas Sand Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrineau, Clifton Patrick

Semi-stabilized dune systems are important indicators of Quaternary drought variability across central North America. The South Texas sand sheet (STSS) is the southernmost relict dune system in central North America and is exposed to higher evapotranspiration and moisture variability than similar landscapes farther north. This study uses multi-scale analysis of LiDAR data, geophysical surveys, optically stimulated luminescence dates of core samples, and X-ray fluorescence analysis to identify historical periods of desertification across the STSS. These data suggest long-term relationships between climate, ecological disturbances, geological framework, and desertification. Aeolian activations dated at ca. 75, 230, 2000, 4100, and 6600 yr bp correspond to periods of persistent regional drought, changes in sediment supply, and anthropogenic disturbances of native ecology. From these results it appears that regionalized activation in semi-stabilized dune systems is controlled primarily by climatic variations that reduce the overall moisture available for maintaining vigorous vegetation growth, while localized activation patterns depend more on stresses related to site-specific morphodynamics as well as human activity. With enhanced aridity forecast for much of central North America through the 21 st century, understanding the specific thresholds of desertification is an important step towards building a conceptual model of desertification in semi-stabilized dune landscapes.

Recent seasonal variations in arid landscape cover and aeolian sand mobility, Navajo Nation, southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Amoroso, Lee; Giosan, Liviu; Fuller, Dorian Q.; Nicoll, Kathleen; Flad, Rowan K.; Clift, Peter D.

2013-01-01

The socioeconomic impacts of climate change pose problems not only in devel- oping countries but also to residents of arid lands in the United States among marginalized societies with limited economic means. In the Navajo Nation, warming temperatures and recent drought have increased aeolian sediment mobility such that large, migrating sand dunes affect grazing lands, housing, and road access. Dust derived from this region also affects albedo and longevity of the Rocky Mountains snowpack, located downwind. We present initial results from a study that monitors sand transport and vegetation within a 0.2 km2 site in the Navajo lands, measuring the effects of drought on landscape stability since 2009. Sand mobility decreased substantially as 1 year with near-normal monsoon rainfall (2010) somewhat abated a decade-long drought, temporarily doubling vegetation cover. Vegetation that grew during 2010, with adequate rain, died off rapidly during dry conditions in 2011. Short-term increases in rainfall that promote annual, but not perennial, plant growth will not improve landscape stability in the long term. Climate projections suggest that a warmer, drier climate and potentially enhanced sediment supply from ephem- eral washes will further increase aeolian sand transport and dune activity, worsening the present challenges to people living in this region. Connections among climate, vegetation, and aeolian sediment erodibility in this region are highly relevant to other areas of the world with similar environmental problems.

Climate targets and cost-effective climate stabilization pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.

2015-08-01

Climate economics has developed two main tools to derive an economically adequate response to the climate problem. Cost benefit analysis weighs in any available information on mitigation costs and benefits and thereby derives an "optimal" global mean temperature. Quite the contrary, cost effectiveness analysis allows deriving costs of potential policy targets and the corresponding cost- minimizing investment paths. The article highlights pros and cons of both approaches and then focusses on the implications of a policy that strives at limiting global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial values. The related mitigation costs and changes in the energy sector are summarized according to the IPCC report of 2014. The article then points to conceptual difficulties when internalizing uncertainty in these types of analyses and suggests pragmatic solutions. Key statements on mitigation economics remain valid under uncertainty when being given the adequate interpretation. Furthermore, the expected economic value of perfect climate information is found to be on the order of hundreds of billions of Euro per year if a 2°-policy were requested. Finally, the prospects of climate policy are sketched.

Resilience and stability of Cymodocea nodosa seagrass meadows over the last four decades in a Mediterranean lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Marie; Lafabrie, Céline; Torre, Franck; Fernandez, Catherine; Pasqualini, Vanina

2013-09-01

Understanding what controls the capacity of a coastal lagoon ecosystem to recover following climatic and anthropogenic perturbations and how these perturbations can alter this capacity is critical to efficient environmental management. The goal of this study was to examine the resilience and stability of Cymodocea nodosa-dominated seagrass meadows in Urbino lagoon (Corsica, Mediterranean Sea) by characterizing the spatio-temporal dynamics of seagrass meadows over a 40-year period and comparing (anthropogenic and climatic) environmental fluctuations. The spatio-temporal evolution of seagrass meadows was investigated using previous maps (1973, 1979, 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999) and a 2011 map realized by aerial photography-remote sensing combined with GIS technology. Environmental fluctuation was investigated via physical-chemical parameters (rainfall, water temperature, salinity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen) and human-impact changes (aquaculture, artificial channel). The results showed a severe decline (estimated at -49%) in seagrass meadows between 1973 and 1994 followed by a period of strong recovery (estimated to +42%) between 1994 and 2011. Increased turbidity, induced either by rainfall events, dredging or phytoplankton growth, emerged as the most important driver of the spatio-temporal evolution of Cymodocea nodosa-dominated meadows in Urbino lagoon over the last four decades. Climate events associated to increased turbidity and reduced salinity and temperature could heavily impact seagrass dynamics. This study shows that Urbino lagoon, a system relatively untouched by human impact, shelters seagrass meadows that exhibit high resilience and stability.

Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Vinther, B M; Buchardt, S L; Clausen, H B; Dahl-Jensen, D; Johnsen, S J; Fisher, D A; Koerner, R M; Raynaud, D; Lipenkov, V; Andersen, K K; Blunier, T; Rasmussen, S O; Steffensen, J P; Svensson, A M

2009-09-17

On entering an era of global warming, the stability of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is an important concern, especially in the light of new evidence of rapidly changing flow and melt conditions at the GIS margins. Studying the response of the GIS to past climatic change may help to advance our understanding of GIS dynamics. The previous interpretation of evidence from stable isotopes (delta(18)O) in water from GIS ice cores was that Holocene climate variability on the GIS differed spatially and that a consistent Holocene climate optimum-the unusually warm period from about 9,000 to 6,000 years ago found in many northern-latitude palaeoclimate records-did not exist. Here we extract both the Greenland Holocene temperature history and the evolution of GIS surface elevation at four GIS locations. We achieve this by comparing delta(18)O from GIS ice cores with delta(18)O from ice cores from small marginal icecaps. Contrary to the earlier interpretation of delta(18)O evidence from ice cores, our new temperature history reveals a pronounced Holocene climatic optimum in Greenland coinciding with maximum thinning near the GIS margins. Our delta(18)O-based results are corroborated by the air content of ice cores, a proxy for surface elevation. State-of-the-art ice sheet models are generally found to be underestimating the extent and changes in GIS elevation and area; our findings may help to improve the ability of models to reproduce the GIS response to Holocene climate.

Climate change: do we know enough for policy action?

PubMed

Schneider, Stephen H

2006-10-01

The climate change problem must be thought of in terms of risk, not certainty. There are many well-established elements of the problem that carry considerable confidence whereas some aspects are speculative. Therefore, the climate problem emerges not simply as a normal science research issue, but as a risk management policy debate as well. Descriptive science entails using empirical and theoretical methods to quantify the two factors that go into risk assessment: "What can happen?" and "What are the odds?" (Probability x Consequences). Policymakers should, in turn, take that information and use it to make value judgments about what is safe, what is dangerous, what is fair. To make these judgments, policymakers need to know the probabilities that experts assign to various possible outcomes in order to make risk management decisions to hedge against unsafe, dangerous and unfair outcomes. The climate debate needs to be reframed away from absolute costs--or benefits--into relative delay times to achieve specific caps or to avoid crossing specific agreed 'dangerous' climate change thresholds. Even in most optimistic scenarios, CO2 will stabilize at a much higher concentration than it has reached today, and temperature will rise accordingly. It will take even longer for sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of polar ice to occur, but what is most problematic is that how we handle our emissions now and in the next five decades preconditions the sustainability of the next millennium.

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Vegetation: Implications for Biodiversity and Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, K.; Schrag, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on biodiversity. Two commonly used climate classification systems show shifts in vegetation under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, though we acknowledge the associated uncertainties with these systems. We also show that rates of warming and the climate velocity are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles are observed in the results, and have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. Vegetation water cycling is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.

Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) bias correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrac, Mathieu

2018-06-01

Climate simulations often suffer from statistical biases with respect to observations or reanalyses. It is therefore common to correct (or adjust) those simulations before using them as inputs into impact models. However, most bias correction (BC) methods are univariate and so do not account for the statistical dependences linking the different locations and/or physical variables of interest. In addition, they are often deterministic, and stochasticity is frequently needed to investigate climate uncertainty and to add constrained randomness to climate simulations that do not possess a realistic variability. This study presents a multivariate method of rank resampling for distributions and dependences (R2D2) bias correction allowing one to adjust not only the univariate distributions but also their inter-variable and inter-site dependence structures. Moreover, the proposed R2D2 method provides some stochasticity since it can generate as many multivariate corrected outputs as the number of statistical dimensions (i.e., number of grid cell × number of climate variables) of the simulations to be corrected. It is based on an assumption of stability in time of the dependence structure - making it possible to deal with a high number of statistical dimensions - that lets the climate model drive the temporal properties and their changes in time. R2D2 is applied on temperature and precipitation reanalysis time series with respect to high-resolution reference data over the southeast of France (1506 grid cell). Bivariate, 1506-dimensional and 3012-dimensional versions of R2D2 are tested over a historical period and compared to a univariate BC. How the different BC methods behave in a climate change context is also illustrated with an application to regional climate simulations over the 2071-2100 period. The results indicate that the 1d-BC basically reproduces the climate model multivariate properties, 2d-R2D2 is only satisfying in the inter-variable context, 1506d-R2D2 strongly improves inter-site properties and 3012d-R2D2 is able to account for both. Applications of the proposed R2D2 method to various climate datasets are relevant for many impact studies. The perspectives of improvements are numerous, such as introducing stochasticity in the dependence itself, questioning its stability assumption, and accounting for temporal properties adjustment while including more physics in the adjustment procedures.

White Arctic vs. Blue Arctic: A case study of diverging stakeholder responses to environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, Robert; Pfirman, Stephanie; Schlosser, Peter; Tremblay, Bruno; Murray, Maribeth; Pomerance, Rafe

2016-08-01

Recent trends and climate models suggest that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is likely to be lost before climate interventions can stabilize it. There are environmental, socioeconomic, and sociocultural arguments for, but also against, restoring and sustaining current conditions. Even if global warming can be reversed, some people will experience ice-free summers before perennial sea ice begins to return. We ask: How will future generations feel about bringing sea ice back where they have not experienced it before? How will conflicted interests in ice-covered vs. ice-free conditions be resolved? What role will science play in these debates?

The Use of Remote Sensing Data for Advancing America's Energy Policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valinia, Azita; Seery, Bernard D.

2010-01-01

After briefly reviewing America's Energy Policy laid out by the Obama Administration, we outline how a Global Carbon Observing System designed to monitor Carbon from space can provide the necessary data and tools to equip decision makers with the knowledge necessary to formulate effective energy use and practices policy. To stabilize greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere in a manner that it does not interfere with the Earth's climate system (which is one of the goals of United Nations Framework for Convention on Climate Change) requires vastly improved prediction of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. This in torn requires a robust understanding of the carbon exchange mechanisms between atmosphere, land, and oceans and a clear understanding of the sources and sinks (i.e. uptake and storage) of CO2. We discuss how the Carbon Observing System from space aids in better understanding of the connection between the carbon cycle and climate change and provides more accurate predictions of atmospheric CO2 concentration. It also enables implementation of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies such as cap and trade programs, international climate treaties, as well as formulation of effective energy use policies.

The Dynamics of Hadley Circulation Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Nicholas Alexander

The Hadley circulation exerts a dominant control on the surface climate of earth's tropical belt. Its converging surface winds fuel the tropical rains, while subsidence in the subtropics dries and stabilizes the atmosphere, creating deserts on land and stratocumulus decks over the oceans. Because of the strong meridional gradients in temperature and precipitation in the subtropics, any shift in the Hadley circulation edge could project as major changes in surface climate. While climate model simulations predict an expansion of the Hadley cells in response to greenhouse gas forcings, the mechanisms remain elusive. An analysis of the climatology, variability, and response of the Hadley circulation to radiative forcings in climate models and reanalyses illuminates the broader landscape in which Hadley cell expansion is realized. The expansion is a fundamental response of the atmosphere to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as it scales with other key climate system changes, including polar amplification, increasing static stability, stratospheric cooling, and increasing global-mean surface temperatures. Multiple measures of the Hadley circulation edge latitudes co-vary with the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets on all timescales, and both exhibit a robust poleward shift in response to forcings. Further, across models there is a robust coupling between the eddy-driving on the Hadley cells and their width. On the other hand, the subtropical jet and tropopause break latitudes, two common observational proxies for the tropical belt edges, lack a strong statistical relationship with the Hadley cell edges and have no coherent response to forcings. This undermines theories for the Hadley cell width predicated on angular momentum conservation and calls for a new framework for understanding Hadley cell expansion. A numerical framework is developed within an idealized general circulation model to isolate the mean flow and eddy responses of the global atmosphere to radiative forcings. It is found that it is primarily the eddy response to greenhouse-gas-like forcings that causes Hadley cell expansion. However, the mean flow changes in the Hadley circulation itself crucially mediate this eddy response such that the full response comes about due to eddy-mean flow interactions. A theoretical scaling for the Hadley cell width based on moist static energy is developed to provide an improved framework to understand climate change responses of the general circulation. The scaling predicts that expansion is driven by increases in the surface latent heat flux and the width of the rising branch of the circulation and opposed by increases in tropospheric radiative cooling. A reduction in subtropical moist static energy flux divergence by the eddies is key, as it tilts the energetic balance in favor of expansion.

Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps.

PubMed

Stoffel, M; Tiranti, D; Huggel, C

2014-09-15

This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal acclimation modulates the impacts of temperature and enrichment on trophic interaction strengths and population dynamics.

PubMed

Sentis, Arnaud; Morisson, Julie; Boukal, David S

2015-09-01

Global change affects individual phenotypes and biotic interactions, which can have cascading effects up to the ecosystem level. However, the role of environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity in species interactions is poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge of the impacts of global change on ecosystems. Using a cladoceran-dragonfly system, we experimentally investigated the effects of thermal acclimation, acute temperature change and enrichment on predator functional response and metabolic rate. Using our experimental data, we next parameterized a population dynamics model to determine the consequences of these effects on trophic interaction strength and food-chain stability. We found that (1) predation and metabolic rates of the dragonfly larvae increase with acute warming, (2) warm-acclimated larvae have a higher maximum predation rate than cold-acclimated ones, and (3) long-term interaction strength increases with enrichment but decreases with both acclimation and acute temperatures. Overall, our experimental results show that thermal acclimation can buffer negative impacts of environmental change on predators and increase food-web stability and persistence. We conclude that the effect of acclimation and, more generally, phenotypic plasticity on trophic interactions should not be overlooked if we aim to understand the effects of climate change and enrichment on species interaction strength and food-web stability. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Soil Organic C Stability at the Continental Scale: An Analysis of Soil C and Radiocarbon Profiles Across the NEON Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckman, K. A.; Gallo, A.; Hatten, J. A.; Swanston, C.; McKnight, D. M.; Strahm, B. D.; Sanclements, M.

2017-12-01

Soil carbon stocks have become recognized as increasingly important in the context of climate change and global C cycle modeling. As modelers seek to identify key parameters affecting the size and stability of belowground C stocks, attention has been drawn to the mineral matrix and the soil physiochemical factors influenced by it. Though clay content has often been utilized as a convenient and key explanatory variable for soil C dynamics, its utility has recently come under scrutiny as new paradigms of soil organic matter stabilization have been developed. We utilized soil cores from a range of National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) experimental plots to examine the influence of physicochemical parameters on soil C stocks and turnover, and their relative importance in comparison to climatic variables. Soils were cored at NEON sites, sampled by genetic horizon, and density separated into light fractions (particulate organics neither occluded within aggregates nor associated with mineral surfaces), occluded fractions (particulate organics occluded within aggregates), and heavy fractions (organics associated with mineral surfaces). Bulk soils and density fractions were measured for % C and radiocarbon abundance (as a measure of C stability). Carbon and radiocarbon abundances were examined among fractions and in the context of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, elevation) and soil physiochemical variables (% clay and pH). No direct relationships between temperature and soil C or radiocarbon abundances were found. As a whole, soil radiocarbon abundance in density fractions decreased in the order of light>heavy>occluded, highlighting the importance of both surface sorption and aggregation to the preservation of organics. Radiocarbon abundance was correlated with pH, with variance also grouping by dominate vegetation type. Soil order was also identified as an important proxy variable for C and radiocarbon abundance. Preliminary results suggest that both integrative proxies as well as physicochemical properties may be needed to account for variation in soil C abundance and stability at the continental scale.

Integrated waste management as a climate change stabilization wedge.

PubMed

Bahor, Brian; Van Brunt, Michael; Stovall, Jeff; Blue, Katherine

2009-11-01

Anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions are known to contribute to global increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and are widely believed to contribute to climate change. A reference carbon dioxide concentration of 383 ppm for 2007 is projected to increase to a nominal 500 ppm in less than 50 years according to business as usual models. This concentration change is equivalent to an increase of 7 billion tonnes of carbon per year (7 Gt C year(-1)). The concept of a stabilization wedge was introduced by Pacala and Socolow (Science, 305, 968-972, 2004) to break the 7 Gt C year(- 1) into more manageable 1 Gt C year(- 1) reductions that would be achievable with current technology. A total of fifteen possible 'wedges' were identified; however, an integrated municipal solid waste (MSW) management system based on the European Union's waste management hierarchy was not evaluated as a wedge. This analysis demonstrates that if the tonnage of MSW is allocated to recycling, waste to energy and landfilling in descending order in lieu of existing 'business-as-usual' practices with each option using modern technology and best practices, the system would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 1 Gt C year( -1). This integrated waste management system reduces CO(2) by displacing fossil electrical generation and avoiding manufacturing energy consumption and methane emissions from landfills.

Population dynamics of sugar maple through the southern portion of its range: implications for range migration

Treesearch

Justin L. Hart; Christopher M. Oswalt; Craig M. Turberville

2014-01-01

The range of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) is expected to shift northward in accord with changing climate. However, a pattern of increased sugar maple abundance has been reported from sites throughout the eastern US. The goal of our study was to examine the stability of the sugar maple southern range boundary by analyzing its demography through...

Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Matthew D. Hurteau; Shuang Liang; Katherine L. Martin; Malcolm P. North; George W. Koch; Bruce A. Hungate

2016-01-01

Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and...

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions for climate stabilization: framing regional options.

PubMed

Olabisi, Laura Schmitt; Reich, Peter B; Johnson, Kris A; Kapuscinski, Anne R; Su, Sangwon H; Wilson, Elizabeth J

2009-03-15

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will require reduction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by as much as 80% by 2050. Subnational efforts to cut emissions will inform policy development nationally and globally. We projected GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reduction by 2050. A portfolio of conservation strategies, including electricity conservation, increased vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, and reduced vehicle miles traveled, is likely the most cost-effective option for Minnesota and could reduce emissions by 18% below 2005 levels. An 80% GHG reduction would require complete decarbonization of the electricity and transportation sectors, combined with carbon capture and sequestration at power plants, or deep cuts in other relatively more intransigent GHG-emitting sectors. In order to achieve ambitious GHG reduction goals, policymakers should promote aggressive conservation efforts, which would probably have negative net costs, while phasing in alternative fuels to replace coal and motor gasoline over the long-term.

The Interacting controls of pyrolysis temperature and plant taxa on pyrogenic organic matter stability and decomposition in a Northern Michigan forest soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, C. D.; Filley, T. R.; Bird, J. A.; Hatton, P. J.; Stark, R. E.; Nadelhoffer, K. J.

2017-12-01

Pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) produced during forest fires is considered a large sink of stable soil organic matter (SOM) in boreal-temperate forest ecotones, where fire frequency and intensity is growing with changing climate. Understanding how changes in fire regime and predicted shifts in plant taxa will interact to affect PyOM dynamics in soil is imperative to assessing the impact of climate change on SOM maintenance. The stability of PyOM in soil may be co-determined by the physiochemical structure imparted on PyOM during pyrolysis and by its initial taxa-dependent wood chemistry and anatomy. To determine PyOM-C turnover rates in soil, we followed the fate of 13C-enriched wood or PyOM (200, 300, 450, or 600°C) derived from red maple (RM) or jack pine (JP) wood in soil from a recently burned forest in northern Michigan, USA. We found that pyrolysis temperature-controlled physiochemical changes influenced, with threshold dynamics, PyOM stability resulting in mean residence times of 2 (PyOM 200°C) to 450 years for both taxa, confirming that most PyOM (<600°C) turns over on the century, not millennial time scale. Water leachable C, carbohydrate and non-lignin phenol content correlated positively with early PyOM-C mineralization for both JP and RM, but the pyrolysis temperature at which this interaction was strongest differed with taxa reflecting the difference in thermal transition in which carbonization begins (300°C for JP and 450°C for RM). In contrast to previous studies, the addition of sucrose suggests that a co-metabolism mechanism of PyOM decomposition is minor in this soil. Our results show that while the first order control on PyOM stability in this soil is pyrolysis temperature, wood taxa did affect PyOM C MRT, in part due to differences in the amount of water soluble C released by PyOM during the initial decomposition dynamics in soil.

Stoichiometric homeostasis predicts plant species dominance, temporal stability, and responses to global change.

PubMed

Yu, Qiang; Wilcox, Kevin; La Pierre, Kimberly; Knapp, Alan K; Han, Xingguo; Smith, Melinda D

2015-09-01

Why some species are consistently more abundant than others, and predicting how species will respond to global change, are fundamental questions in ecology. Long-term observations indicate that plant species with high stoichiometric homeostasis for nitrogen (HN), i.e., the ability to decouple foliar N levels from variation in soil N availability, were more common and stable through time than low-HN species in a central U.S. grassland. However, with nine years of nitrogen addition, species with high H(N) decreased in abundance, while those with low H(N) increased in abundance. In contrast, in climate change experiments simulating a range of forecast hydrologic changes, e.g., extreme drought (two years), increased rainfall variability (14 years), and chronic increases in rainfall (21 years), plant species with the highest H(N) were least responsive to changes in soil water availability. These results suggest that H(N) may be predictive of plant species success and stability, and how plant species and ecosystems will respond to global-change-driven alterations in resource availability.

Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games

PubMed Central

Heitzig, Jobst; Lessmann, Kai; Zou, Yong

2011-01-01

As the Copenhagen Accord indicates, most of the international community agrees that global mean temperature should not be allowed to rise more than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels to avoid unacceptable damages from climate change. The scientific evidence distilled in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recent reports by the US National Academies shows that this can only be achieved by vast reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Still, international cooperation on greenhouse gas emissions reductions suffers from incentives to free-ride and to renegotiate agreements in case of noncompliance, and the same is true for other so-called “public good games.” Using game theory, we show how one might overcome these problems with a simple dynamic strategy of linear compensation when the parameters of the problem fulfill some general conditions and players can be considered to be sufficiently rational. The proposed strategy redistributes liabilities according to past compliance levels in a proportionate and timely way. It can be used to implement any given allocation of target contributions, and we prove that it has several strong stability properties. PMID:21903930

Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers.

PubMed

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-04-05

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species' range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.

Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffucci, Fulvio; Corrado, Raffaele; Palatella, Luigi; Borra, Marco; Marullo, Salvatore; Hochscheid, Sandra; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Iudicone, Daniele

2016-04-01

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species’ range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.

Modeling Study of the Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Late Spring Drought in South China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Ning; Liu, Xiaohong

2013-10-01

In this study, the mechanisms underlying the decadal variability of late spring precipitation in south China are investigated using the latest version 1 of Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We aim to unravel the effects of different climate forcing agents, such as aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), on the decadal variation of precipitation with transient experiments from pre-industry (for year 1850) to present-day (for year 2000). Our results reveal that: (1) CESM1 can reproduce the climatological features of atmospheric circulation and precipitation for the late spring in south China; (2) Only simulations including the forcing of anthropogenic aerosols can reproducemore » the observed decreasing trend of late spring precipitation from 1950-2000 in south China; (3) Aerosols affect the decadal change of precipitation mainly by altering the large scale atmospheric circulation, and to a less extent by increasing the lower-tropospheric stability to inhibit the convective precipitation; and (4) In comparison, other climate forcing agents, such as GHGs, have much smaller effects on the decadal change of spring precipitation in south China. Key words: precipitation, aerosols, climate change, south China, Community Earth System Model« less

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

2013-04-01

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath <500m water depth. Predicted dissociation rates are particularly sensitive to the modelled vertical hydrate distribution within sediments. Under the worst case business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Quantitative assessment of resilience of a water supply system under rainfall reduction due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarasinghe, Pradeep; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Barnes, Paul; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2016-09-01

A water supply system can be impacted by rainfall reduction due to climate change, thereby reducing its supply potential. This highlights the need to understand the system resilience, which refers to the ability to maintain service under various pressures (or disruptions). Currently, the concept of resilience has not yet been widely applied in managing water supply systems. This paper proposed three technical resilience indictors to assess the resilience of a water supply system. A case study analysis was undertaken of the Water Grid system of Queensland State, Australia, to showcase how the proposed indicators can be applied to assess resilience. The research outcomes confirmed that the use of resilience indicators is capable of identifying critical conditions in relation to the water supply system operation, such as the maximum allowable rainfall reduction for the system to maintain its operation without failure. Additionally, resilience indicators also provided useful insight regarding the sensitivity of the water supply system to a changing rainfall pattern in the context of climate change, which represents the system's stability when experiencing pressure. The study outcomes will help in the quantitative assessment of resilience and provide improved guidance to system operators to enhance the efficiency and reliability of a water supply system.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

El Niño impact on mollusk biomineralization-implications for trace element proxy reconstructions and the paleo-archeological record.

PubMed

Pérez-Huerta, Alberto; Etayo-Cadavid, Miguel F; Andrus, C Fred T; Jeffries, Teresa E; Watkins, Clifton; Street, Shane C; Sandweiss, Daniel H

2013-01-01

Marine macroinvertebrates are ideal sentinel organisms to monitor rapid environmental changes associated with climatic phenomena. These organisms build up protective exoskeletons incrementally by biologically-controlled mineralization, which is deeply rooted in long-term evolutionary processes. Recent studies relating potential rapid environmental fluctuations to climate change, such as ocean acidification, suggest modifications on carbonate biominerals of marine invertebrates. However, the influence of known, and recurrent, climatic events on these biological processes during active mineralization is still insufficiently understood. Analysis of Peruvian cockles from the 1982-83 large magnitude El Niño event shows significant alterations of the chemico-structure of carbonate biominerals. Here, we show that bivalves modify the main biomineralization mechanism during the event to continue shell secretion. As a result, magnesium content increases to stabilize amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC), inducing a rise in Mg/Ca unrelated to the associated increase in sea-surface temperature. Analysis of variations in Sr/Ca also suggests that this proxy should not be used in these bivalves to detect the temperature anomaly, while Ba/Ca peaks are recorded in shells in response to an increase in productivity, or dissolved barium in seawater, after the event. Presented data contribute to a better understanding of the effects of abrupt climate change on shell biomineralization, while also offering an alternative view of bivalve elemental proxy reconstructions. Furthermore, biomineralization changes in mollusk shells can be used as a novel potential proxy to provide a more nuanced historical record of El Niño and similar rapid environmental change events.

Hydrologic and Isotopic Sensitivity of Alpine Lakes to Climate Change in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Mercer, J.; Parsekian, A.; Williams, D. G.

2017-12-01

Climate reconstructions show that global average temperatures were 0.5°C higher than today during the mid-Holocene, falling well within projections for increases in global average temperature presented in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Despite the consensus for the prediction of a warmer climate, however, it is unclear how snowmelt from high-elevation watersheds will be affected by such a change. Snowmelt contributes substantially to major rivers in the western United States, and much of the water flows through lakes in the highest-elevation watersheds. Our water balance models show that modern alpine lakes with seasonably unstable water levels can desiccate primarily through groundwater outflow, resulting in increased groundwater storage that likely sustains baseflow in mountain streams once snowmelt has subsided in late summer. However, contribution of freshwater from alpine lakes to streams may vary over time as changes in climate alters snowpack, rates of evaporation, and the abundance of snowmelt-fed lakes. As such, alpine lakes with seasonally unstable water levels today may have dried out entirely during the mid-Holocene warm period and may dry out in the future as temperatures increase. To investigate the response of alpine lakes to temperatures of the mid-Holocene, we collected 9 sediment cores from closed-basin alpine lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming that lose most their volumes each summer. We use radiocarbon-dating of charcoal in basal sediments to determine lake formation age, abundance of conifer needles to infer relative forest cover, and a δ18O carbonate record to determine changes in the ratio of evaporation to precipitation in an alpine lake that existed throughout the Holocene. Warming likely changed watershed hydrology through a) decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt, b) increased evaporation, and c) increased transpiration associated with expanded forest cover and longer growing seasons. These factors would have decreased the contribution of snowmelt from alpine lakes to streams, thus reducing baseflow in rivers at low elevations. By evaluating the stability of alpine lakes throughout the Holocene, we can better assess the future impact of climate change on the transport of snowmelt to vital rivers.

Two-Basket Approach and Emission Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Schmale, J.; von Schneidemesser, E.

2013-12-01

Cutting the emissions of Short-Lived Climate-Forcing Air Pollutants (SLCPs) gains increasing global attention as a mitigation policy option because of direct benefits for climate and co-benefits such as improvements in air quality. Including SLCPs as target components to abate within a single basket (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol) would, however, face issues with regard to: i) additional assumptions that are required to compare SLCP emissions and CO2 emissions within a basket in terms of climatic effects, especially because of the difference in lifetimes, ii) the accountability of non-climatic effects in the emission trading between SLCPs and CO2. The idea of a two-basket approach was originally proposed as a climatic analogue to the Montreal Protocol dealing with ozone depleting substances (Jackson 2009; Daniel et al. 2012; Smith et al. 2013). In a two-basket approach, emissions are allowed to be traded within a basket but not across the baskets. While this approach potentially ensures scientifically supported emission trading (e.g. (Smith et al. 2013)), this approach leaves open the important issue of how to determine the relative weight between two baskets. Determining the weight cannot be answered by science alone, as the question involves a value judgment as stressed in metric studies (e.g. (Tanaka et al. 2010; Tanaka et al. 2013)). We discuss emission metrics in the context of a two-basket approach and present policy implications of such an approach. In a two-basket approach, the weight between two baskets needs to be determined a priori or exogenously. Here, an opportunity arises to present synergetic policy options targeted at mitigating climate change and air pollution simultaneously. In other words, this could be a strategy to encourage policymakers to consider cross-cutting issues. Under a two-basket climate policy, policymakers would be exposed to questions such as: - What type of damages caused by climate change does one choose to avoid? - To what extent does one wish to prioritize climate change issues over air pollution issues? - What is the time perspective one is most concerned with in a given policy? Because climate change and air pollution are closely linked via emission sources, their impacts and mitigation options, it would be beneficial for the two sets of policies to be dealt with together to make the best of synergies and to avoid trade-offs between them. References Daniel J, Solomon S, Sanford T, McFarland M, Fuglestvedt J, Friedlingstein P (2012) Limitations of single-basket trading: Lessons from the montreal protocol for climate policy. Clim Change 111:241-248 Jackson SC (2009) Parallel pursuit of near-term and long-term climate mitigation. Science 326:526-527 Smith S, Karas J, Edmonds J, Eom J, Mizrahi A (2013) Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics. Clim Change 117:663-675 Tanaka K, Johansson DJA, O'Neill BC, Fuglestvedt JS (2013) Emission metrics under the 2°c climate stabilization target. Climatic Change Letters 117:933-941 Tanaka K, Peters GP, Fuglestvedt JS (2010) Policy update: Multicomponent climate policy: Why do emission metrics matter? Carbon Management 1:191-197

The Climate Science Special Report: Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelo, B. J.

2017-12-01

This chapter of CSSR provides scientific context for key issues regarding the long-term mitigation of climate change. Policy analysis and recommendations are beyond the scope of CSSR. Limiting and stabilizing warming to any level implies that there is an upper limit to the cumulative amount of CO2 that can be added to the atmosphere. Eventually stabilizing the global temperature requires CO2 emissions to approach zero. For a 3.6°F (2°C) or any desired global mean temperature target, an estimated range of allowable cumulative CO2 emissions from the current period onward can be calculated. Accounting for the temperature effects of non-CO2 species, cumulative CO2 emissions are required to stay below about 800 GtC in order to provide a two-thirds likelihood of preventing 3.6°F (2°C) of warming, meaning approximately 230 GtC more could be emitted globally. Assuming global emissions follow the range between the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, emissions could continue for approximately two decades before this cumulative carbon threshold is exceeded. Meeting a 2.7°F (1.5°C) target implies much tighter constraints. Mitigation of non-CO2 species contributes substantially to near-term cooling benefits but cannot be relied upon for ultimate stabilization goals. Successful implementation of the first round of Nationally Determined Contributions associated with the Paris Agreement will provide some likelihood of meeting the long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels; the likelihood depends strongly on the magnitude of global emission reductions after 2030. If interest in geoengineering increases, interest will also increase in assessments of the technical feasibilities, costs, risks, co-benefits, and governance challenges of these additional measures, which are as yet unproven at scale.

Inferences of Present and Past Changes at Isolated Enclaves and Matrix of Savannas by Carbon Isotopes in a Transitional Forest-Savanna Area in Northern Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto-Santos, F. R.; Luizao, F. J.; Camargo, P. B.

2013-12-01

The evolutionary history of savannas influenced by short term climate cycles, during the Quaternary Period, could prompt variations in forest cover often related to movements of the forest-savanna boundary. In this study we investigated current and past changes in the structure of vegetation and the origins of savannas of different natures in a biogeographically and climatic transitional forest-savanna area in northern Amazonia. Variations in the isotopic composition of soil organic matter (δ13C) from surface soils (0-10 cm) along forest-savanna boundaries, detected by a sigmoidal non-linear function, were used to identify current changes in vegetation, while past changes were inferred by discontinuities in the evolution of δ13C with soil depth using piecewise regression associated with radiocarbon dating (14C). By comparing small isolated savanna enclaves inside a strictly protected nature reserve (ESEC Maracá) with its outskirts unprotected continuous savanna matrix, we found that origins and the patterns of dynamics were distinct between these areas and did not respond in the same way to climate change and fire events, either in the last decades or during the Holocene. The stability of the present boundaries of the surrounding savanna matrix reflects the resilience of the transitional forests under a recent intensified fire regime and favorable climate, while the deep forest soil isotopic signal indicated a forest shrinkage of at least 70 m occurring since its origin in early Holocene until 780 years BP associated with a climate drier than the current one. Contrarily, the protected enclaves inside ESEC Maracá, remained stable since the middle Holocene, suggesting a non-anthropogenic origin related to soil edaphic conditions, but with recent dynamics of advancing forest by 8 m century-1 favored by current climate and lacking fire events. A detailed understanding of the origins of savannas of distinct natures and the way they are affected by climate and fire events provided by carbon isotopes and radiocarbon analysis in both short and long term could help predict the future of these ecosystems under the envisaged climate change scenario. Financial Support: Boticário Group Foundation (Fundação Grupo Boticário); National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); The Minas Gerais State Research Foundation (FAPEMIG).

Dynamic Biological Functioning Important for Simulating and Stabilizing Ocean Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, P. J.; Matear, R. J.; Chase, Z.; Phipps, S. J.; Bindoff, N. L.

2018-04-01

The biogeochemistry of the ocean exerts a strong influence on the climate by modulating atmospheric greenhouse gases. In turn, ocean biogeochemistry depends on numerous physical and biological processes that change over space and time. Accurately simulating these processes is fundamental for accurately simulating the ocean's role within the climate. However, our simulation of these processes is often simplistic, despite a growing understanding of underlying biological dynamics. Here we explore how new parameterizations of biological processes affect simulated biogeochemical properties in a global ocean model. We combine 6 different physical realizations with 6 different biogeochemical parameterizations (36 unique ocean states). The biogeochemical parameterizations, all previously published, aim to more accurately represent the response of ocean biology to changing physical conditions. We make three major findings. First, oxygen, carbon, alkalinity, and phosphate fields are more sensitive to changes in the ocean's physical state. Only nitrate is more sensitive to changes in biological processes, and we suggest that assessment protocols for ocean biogeochemical models formally include the marine nitrogen cycle to assess their performance. Second, we show that dynamic variations in the production, remineralization, and stoichiometry of organic matter in response to changing environmental conditions benefit the simulation of ocean biogeochemistry. Third, dynamic biological functioning reduces the sensitivity of biogeochemical properties to physical change. Carbon and nitrogen inventories were 50% and 20% less sensitive to physical changes, respectively, in simulations that incorporated dynamic biological functioning. These results highlight the importance of a dynamic biology for ocean properties and climate.

Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies project; Third quarterly technical progress report, December 1993--February 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-04-01

Examination of the paleolithic and geomorphic records to determine the local and regional impact of past climates will advance assessment of Yucca Mountain`s suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. The project includes the integration of botanical, faunal, and geomorphic components to accomplish this goal. Paleobotanical studies will reconstruct the response of vegetation to climate change at the community and the organismal levels by integrating data obtained from nearly continuous sediment records of pollen, plant macrofossils, and stable isotopes from fossil woodrat middens. The goal of the paleofaunas study is to construct a history of Great Basin vertebrates, particularly mammals,more » that will provide empirical evidence of past environmental and climatic conditions within the Great Basin as it is recorded by the animals. Taxonomic composition of archaeological and paleontological faunas from various areas within the Great Basin and morphological change within individual mammalian taxa at specific localities are being investigated to monitor faunal response to changing environmental conditions. The objective of the geomorphology component of the paleoenvironmental program is to document the responses of surficial processes and landforms to the climatic changes documented by studies of packrat middens, pollen, and faunal distributions. The project will focus on: (1) stratigraphic relationships between lake deposits and aeolian or fluvial sediments and landforms; (2) cut and fill sequences in floodplain and river-channel deposits; (3) identification of periods of dune mobility and stability; (4) documentation of episodes of alluvial fan and terrace development and erosion; and (5) correlation of (3) and (4) to climatically driven lake-level fluctuation as revealed by shoreline features such as strandlines and beach ridges. Accomplishments for this period are presented for these studies.« less

Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.

PubMed

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R

2017-08-01

Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Productivity and phenological responses of natural vegetation to present and future inter-annual climate variability across semi-arid river basins in Chile.

PubMed

Glade, Francisco E; Miranda, Marcelo D; Meza, Francisco J; van Leeuwen, Willem J D

2016-12-01

Time series of vegetation indices and remotely sensed phenological data offer insights about the patterns in vegetation dynamics. Both are useful sources of information for analyzing and monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental variations caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In the semi-arid region of Chile, climate variability and recent severe droughts in addition to land-use changes pose threats to the stability of local ecosystems. Normalized difference vegetation index time series (2000-2013) data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was processed to monitor the trends and patterns of vegetation productivity and phenology observed over the last decade. An analysis of the relationship between (i) vegetation productivity and (ii) precipitation and temperature data for representative natural land-use cover classes was made. Using these data and ground measurements, productivity estimates were projected for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at two altitudinal levels. Results showed negative trends of vegetation productivity below 2000 m a.s.l. and positive trends for higher elevations. Phenology analysis suggested that mountainous ecosystems were starting their growing period earlier in the season, coinciding with a decreased productivity peak during the growing season. The coastal shrubland/grassland land cover class had a significant positive relation with rainfall and a significant negative relation with temperature, suggesting that these ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. Future productivity projections indicate that under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario, productivity could decline by 12% in the period of 2060-2100, leading to a severe vegetation degradation at lower altitudes and in drier areas.

Why Do Tropical Mountains Support Exceptionally High Biodiversity? The Eastern Arc Mountains and the Drivers of Saintpaulia Diversity

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Dimitar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Scharff, Nikolaj

2012-01-01

We combine information about the evolutionary history and distributional patterns of the genus Saintpaulia H. Wendl. (Gesneriaceae; ‘African violets’) to elucidate the factors and processes behind the accumulation of species in tropical montane areas of high biodiversity concentration. We find that high levels of biodiversity in the Eastern Arc Mountains are the result of pre-Quaternary speciation processes and environmental stability. Our results support the hypothesis that climatically stable mountaintops may have acted as climatic refugia for lowland lineages during the Pleistocene by preventing extinctions. In addition, we found evidence for the existence of lowland micro-refugia during the Pleistocene, which may explain the high species diversity of East African coastal forests. We discuss the conservation implications of the results in the context of future climate change. PMID:23185283

Spring temperatures influence selection on breeding date and the potential for phenological mismatch in a migratory bird

PubMed Central

Soukup, Sheryl Swartz; Drilling, Nancy E.; Eckerle, Kevin P.; Sakaluk, Scott K.; Thompson, Charles F.

2016-01-01

Climate change has affected the seasonal phenology of a variety of taxa, including that of migratory birds and their critical food resources. However, whether climate-induced changes in breeding phenology affect individual fitness, and how these changes might, therefore, influence selection on breeding date remain unresolved. Here, we use a 36-year dataset from a long-term, individual-based study of House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon) to test whether the timing of avian breeding seasons is associated with annual changes in temperature, which have increased to a small but significant extent locally since the onset of the study in 1980. Increasing temperature was associated with an advancement of breeding date in the population, as the onset of breeding within years was closely associated with daily spring temperatures. Warmer springs were also associated with a reduced incubation period, but reduced incubation periods were associated with a prolonged duration of nestling provisioning. Nest productivity, in terms of fledgling production, was not associated with temperature, but wetter springs reduced fledging success. Most years were characterized by selection for earlier breeding, but cool and wet years resulted in stabilizing selection on breeding date. Our results indicate that climate change and increasing spring temperatures can affect suites of life-history traits, including selection on breeding date. Increasing temperatures may favor earlier breeding, but the extent to which the phenology of populations might advance may be constrained by reductions in fitness associated with early breeding during cool, wet years. Variability in climatic conditions will, therefore, shape the extent to which seasonal organisms can respond to changes in their environment. PMID:27859132

Global desertification: Drivers and feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash; Davis, Kyle F.; Ravi, Sujith; Runyan, Christiane W.

2013-01-01

Desertification is a change in soil properties, vegetation or climate, which results in a persistent loss of ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. Desertification affects large dryland areas around the world and is a major cause of stress in human societies. Here we review recent research on the drivers, feedbacks, and impacts of desertification. A multidisciplinary approach to understanding the drivers and feedbacks of global desertification is motivated by our increasing need to improve global food production and to sustainably manage ecosystems in the context of climate change. Classic desertification theories look at this process as a transition between stable states in bistable ecosystem dynamics. Climate change (i.e., aridification) and land use dynamics are the major drivers of an ecosystem shift to a “desertified” (or “degraded”) state. This shift is typically sustained by positive feedbacks, which stabilize the system in the new state. Desertification feedbacks may involve land degradation processes (e.g., nutrient loss or salinization), changes in rainfall regime resulting from land-atmosphere interactions (e.g., precipitation recycling, dust emissions), or changes in plant community composition (e.g., shrub encroachment, decrease in vegetation cover). We analyze each of these feedback mechanisms and discuss their possible enhancement by interactions with socio-economic drivers. Large scale effects of desertification include the emigration of “environmental refugees” displaced from degraded areas, climatic changes, and the alteration of global biogeochemical cycles resulting from the emission and long-range transport of fine mineral dust. Recent research has identified some possible early warning signs of desertification, which can be used as indicators of resilience loss and imminent shift to desert-like conditions. We conclude with a brief discussion on some desertification control strategies implemented in different regions around the world.

Dust in the Earth system: the biogeochemical linking of land, air and sea.

PubMed

Ridgwell, Andy J

2002-12-15

Understanding the response of the Earth's climate system to anthropogenic perturbation has been a pressing priority for society since the late 1980s. However, recent years have seen a major paradigm shift in how such an understanding can be reached. Climate change demands analysis within an integrated 'Earth-system' framework, taken to encompass the suite of interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes that, in transporting and transforming materials and energy, jointly determine the conditions for life on the whole planet. This is a highly complex system, characterized by multiple nonlinear responses and thresholds, with linkages often between apparently disparate components. The interconnected nature of the Earth system is wonderfully illustrated by the diverse roles played by atmospheric transport of mineral 'dust', particularly in its capacity as a key pathway for the delivery of nutrients essential to plant growth, not only on land, but perhaps more importantly, in the ocean. Dust therefore biogeochemically links land, air and sea. This paper reviews the biogeochemical role of mineral dust in the Earth system and its interaction with climate, and, in particular, the potential importance of both past and possible future changes in aeolian delivery of the micro-nutrient iron to the ocean. For instance, if, in the future, there was to be a widespread stabilization of soils for the purpose of carbon sequestration on land, a reduction in aeolian iron supply to the open ocean would occur. The resultant weakening of the oceanic carbon sink could potentially offset much of the carbon sequestered on land. In contrast, during glacial times, enhanced dust supply to the ocean could have 'fertilized' the biota and driven atmospheric CO(2) lower. Dust might even play an active role in driving climatic change; since changes in dust supply may affect climate, and changes in climate, in turn, influence dust, a 'feedback loop' is formed. Possible feedback mechanisms are identified, recognition of whose operation could be crucial to our understanding of major climatic transitions over the past few million years.

Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China

PubMed Central

Fan, Jingyu; Peterson, A. Townsend

2017-01-01

Background The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. Methodology/ Principal findings In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. Conclusions/Significance The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050–2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080–2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China. PMID:29040273