Greening Australia's public health system: the role of public hospitals in responding to climate change.

PubMed

Primozic, Lauren

2010-05-01

Climate change is one of the most important social, economic, ecological and ethical issues of the 21st century. The effects of climate change on human health are now widely accepted as a genuine threat and the Australian Government has initiated policy and legislative responses. In addition, in the 2009-2010 budget the Australian Government has committed A$64 billion to public health and hospital reform. But will this Commonwealth funding support--and should it support--the government's high-profile climate change policy? Does Commonwealth funding translate to an obligation to support Commonwealth policies? This article explores the role of public hospitals as champions and role models of the Australian Government's climate change policy and how this might be done without detracting from the primary purpose of public hospital funding: improving patient care.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

PubMed Central

Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. PMID:21746924

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Wilson, Robert J

2011-07-26

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-02-10

unrelated to climate change per se. This report does not address the underlying question of climate change itself. Rather, it identifies the array of...climate-relevant human health research and discusses the interconnections. Approximately $57 million each year since FY2005 supports climate change research...infectious diseases. Three conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change : the infirm, the elderly, and the poor

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This techn...

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

PubMed

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

Progress report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force : recommended actions in support of a national climate change adaptation strategy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-05

The scope, severity, and pace of : future climate change impacts are : difficult to predict. However, : observations and long-term scientific : trends indicate that the potential : impacts of a changing climate on : society and the environment will b...

Knowing climate change, embodying climate praxis: experiential knowledge in southern Appalachia

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Rice; Brian J. Burke; Nik Heynen

2015-01-01

Whether used to support or impede action, scientific knowledge is now, more than ever, the primary framework for political discourse on climate change. As a consequence, science has become a hegemonic way of knowing climate change by mainstream climate politics, which not only limits the actors and actions deemed legitimate in climate politics but also silences...

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector

PubMed Central

Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia’s forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors. PMID:29684041

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector.

PubMed

Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia's forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors.

Teaching Children's Rights and Climate Change with the Support of Act for Climate Web-Based Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gkotzos, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

This article presents an effort to integrate the issues of climate change and children's rights into the Greek primary school curriculum through the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The curriculum Act for Climate was developed through the lens of children's rights and with the support of a web-based learning environment…

Neutralizing misinformation through inoculation: Exposing misleading argumentation techniques reduces their influence

PubMed Central

Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Ecker, Ullrich K. H.

2017-01-01

Misinformation can undermine a well-functioning democracy. For example, public misconceptions about climate change can lead to lowered acceptance of the reality of climate change and lowered support for mitigation policies. This study experimentally explored the impact of misinformation about climate change and tested several pre-emptive interventions designed to reduce the influence of misinformation. We found that false-balance media coverage (giving contrarian views equal voice with climate scientists) lowered perceived consensus overall, although the effect was greater among free-market supporters. Likewise, misinformation that confuses people about the level of scientific agreement regarding anthropogenic global warming (AGW) had a polarizing effect, with free-market supporters reducing their acceptance of AGW and those with low free-market support increasing their acceptance of AGW. However, we found that inoculating messages that (1) explain the flawed argumentation technique used in the misinformation or that (2) highlight the scientific consensus on climate change were effective in neutralizing those adverse effects of misinformation. We recommend that climate communication messages should take into account ways in which scientific content can be distorted, and include pre-emptive inoculation messages. PMID:28475576

Building partnerships to produce actionable science to support climate-informed management decisions: North Central Climate Science Center example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.

2017-12-01

As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co-development of management options under these various scenarios have allowed for guidance about further research needed, observations needed to better monitor ecological conditions under climate changes, and adaptive management practices to increase resilience.

One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloch, Leonard Mark

This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.

The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: experimental evidence.

PubMed

van der Linden, Sander L; Leiserowitz, Anthony A; Feinberg, Geoffrey D; Maibach, Edward W

2015-01-01

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.

The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence

PubMed Central

van der Linden, Sander L.; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.; Feinberg, Geoffrey D.; Maibach, Edward W.

2015-01-01

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change. PMID:25714347

An Examination of Climate Scientists' Participation in Education: Implications for Supporting the Teaching and Learning of Socially Controversial Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Elizabeth M.

2012-01-01

Preparing a generation of citizens to respond to the impacts of climate change will require collaborative interactions between natural scientists, learning scientists, educators and learners. Promoting effective involvement of scientists in climate change education is especially important as climate change science and climate impacts are…

Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

PubMed

Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

2013-08-20

Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.

MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CENTER OF THE DOE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burton, Andrew J.

2014-02-28

The goal of NICCR (National Institute for Climatic Change Research) was to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The NICCR Midwestern Regional Center (MRC) supported work in the following states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MRC of NICCR was able to support nearly $8 million in climatic change research, including $6,671,303 for twenty projects solicited and selected by the MRC over five requests for proposals (RFPs) and $1,051,666 for the final year of ten projectsmore » from the discontinued DOE NIGEC (National Institute for Global Environmental Change) program. The projects selected and funded by the MRC resulted in 135 peer-reviewed publications and supported the training of 25 PhD students and 23 Masters students. Another 36 publications were generated by the final year of continuing NIGEC projects supported by the MRC. The projects funded by the MRC used a variety of approaches to answer questions relevant to the DOE’s climate change research program. These included experiments that manipulated temperature, moisture and other global change factors; studies that sought to understand how the distribution of species and ecosystems might change under future climates; studies that used measurements and modeling to examine current ecosystem fluxes of energy and mass and those that would exist under future conditions; and studies that synthesized existing data sets to improve our understanding of the effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. In all of these efforts, the MRC specifically sought to identify and quantify responses of terrestrial ecosystems that were not well understood or not well modeled by current efforts. The MRC also sought to better understand and model important feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and regional and global climate systems. The broad variety of projects the MRC has supported gave us a unique opportunity to greatly improve our ability to predict the future health, composition and function of important agricultural and natural terrestrial ecosystems within the Midwestern Region.« less

The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

Climate change will restrict ponderosa pine forest regeneration in the 21st century in absence of disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrie, M. D.; Bradford, J. B.; Hubbard, R. M.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Andrews, C.

2016-12-01

The persistence of ponderosa pine forests and the ability for these forests to colonize new habitats in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports ponderosa pine regeneration through the demographic processes of seed production, germination and survival. Yet, the way that climate change may support or restrict the frequency of successful regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative, criteria-based framework to estimate ponderosa pine regeneration potential (RP: a metric from 0-1) in response to climate forcings and environmental conditions. We used the SOILWAT ecosystem water balance model to simulate drivers of air and soil temperature, evaporation and soil moisture availability for 47 ponderosa pine sites across the western United States, using meteorological data from 1910-2014, and projections from nine General Circulation Models and the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario for 2020-2099. Climate change simulations increased the success of early developmental stages of seed production and germination, and supported 49.7% higher RP in 2020-2059 compared to averages from 1910-2014. As temperatures increased in 2060-2099, survival scores decreased, and RP was reduced by 50.3% compared to 1910-2014. Although the frequency of years with high RP did not change in 2060-2099 (12% of years), the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58% of years. Thus, climate change will initially support higher RP and more favorable years in 2020-2059, yet will reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate regeneration support in 2060-2099. Forest regeneration is complex and not fully-understood, but our results suggest it is likely that climate change alone will instigate restrictions to the persistence and expansion of ponderosa pine in the 21st century.

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-08

... exercise was designed to elicit judgments from experts in a workshop setting, regarding climate change... influence under both current and future climate change scenarios. The experts also discussed the high impact... in the diagram, and the potential for threshold changes. These reports show how climate-sensitive...

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

76 FR 78601 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Western...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-19

... climate change and provides several references about the effects of climate change in general to support this claim. The petition explains that human-induced climate change is causing global increases of...; Fagre 2005, p. 1; Hall and Fagre 2003, p. 139; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007a, p...

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed Central

Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Building Public Will for Climate Change Solutions: Which Beliefs Are Most Helpful?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.; Lewandowsky, S.; Cook, J.

2016-12-01

At the COP21 meeting in December 2015, the nations of the world set an ambitious climate change goal - to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees (C), ideally limiting the warming to 1.5 degrees. Achieving this ambitious goal will require building and/or sustaining a high degree of political will in dozens or hundreds of nations, especially highly industrialized nations. One important means of building/sustaining political will is to build public will (i.e., public demand) in support of this goal. Over the past decade, there has been a considerable amount of empirical social science research on public engagement with climate change. In this presentation, we will briefly review the findings of some of this research to suggest that five key beliefs largely form the basis for public will to address climate change. Specifically, people who hold the following beliefs are more likely to support actions to limit climate change, and to personally be taking helpful actions themselves: (1) climate change is real; (2) climate change is human-caused; (3) there is expert consensus about human-caused climate change; (4) climate change is harmful to people; (5) actions can be taken to limit climate change. We will also briefly review what is known about how to successfully communicate these ideas in ways that minimize the societal polarization about climate change (what we call the "acceptance gap") that has developed between liberals and conservatives in several primarily English-speaking nations.

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

PubMed

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes.

Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-06

climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call “decision-scaling,” reveals the core sensitivity of...DoD installations to climate change . It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems...including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and

Climate Effects on Health

MedlinePlus

... Chapter . Additional information regarding the health effects of climate change and references to supporting literature can be found ... globalchange.gov/engage/activities-products/NCA3/technical-inputs . Climate change, together with other natural and human-made health ...

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

PubMed

Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

PubMed Central

Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Southwest Regional Information Sheet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leicht-Young, Stacey A.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2013-01-01

This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Australians' views on carbon pricing before and after the 2013 federal election

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreyer, Stacia J.; Walker, Iain; McCoy, Shannon K.; Teisl, Mario F.

2015-12-01

As climate policies change through the legislative process, public attitudes towards them may change as well. Therefore, it is important to assess how people accept and support controversial climate policies as the policies change over time. Policy acceptance is a positive evaluation of, or attitude towards, an existing policy; policy support adds an active behavioural component. Acceptance does not necessarily lead to support. We conducted a national survey of Australian residents to investigate acceptance of, and support for, the Australian carbon pricing policy before and after the 2013 federal election, and how perceptions of the policy, economic ideology, and voting behaviour affect acceptance and support. We found acceptance and support were stable across the election period, which was surprising given that climate policy was highly contentious during the election. Policy acceptance was higher than policy support at both times and acceptance was a necessary but insufficient condition of support. We conclude that acceptance is an important process through which perceptions of the policy and economic ideology influence support. Therefore, future climate policy research needs to distinguish between acceptance and support to better understand this process, and to better measure these concepts.

Climate Change Adaptation Support for Transportation Practitioners: 2013 Volpe Center Innovation Challenge Project.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-09-30

The nature of the U.S. transportation system requires that actions to adapt to climate change impacts occur primarily at the State and local levels. Federal agencies support State, regional, and local agencies and they work hard to provide frameworks...

Connecting Stakeholders and Climate Science: A Summary of Farmer, Rancher, and Forester Climate Data Needs and Climate Change Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.

2015-12-01

The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

How Five Master Teachers Teach about Climate Chang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloch, L.

2015-12-01

The AGU Position Statement, "Human-Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action," calls on scientists to "[work] with stakeholders to identify relevant information, and [to convey] understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public". Everyday, K-12 teachers communicate with an important segment of the general public, and they represent important stakeholders with unique needs. The terms 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', and 'climate change' appear nowhere in the 1996 National Science Education Standards, but under the Next Generation Science Standards, millions of teachers- most of whom have little to no experience teaching about climate change- will be required to cover the topic. This presentation discusses research conducted with five veteran public school teachers, each of whom has been teaching about climate change for many years. The group comprises three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. The study examined: 1) What these teachers teach about climate change; 2) How they teach about climate change; 3) What resources they use in teaching and learning about climate change; and 4) How they think the scientific community can support teachers in their efforts to teach about climate change. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they all said that the academic community can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Scientists working with K-12 teachers can build on the work of these master teachers, and attendees can access detailed descriptions of all of the lessons and the associated learning materials.

Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of Southern Saskatchewan

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios ...

College Students' Perceptions about the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombardi, Doug; Sinatra, Gale M.

2012-01-01

Overcoming students' misconceptions may be a challenge when teaching about phenomena such as climate change. Students tend to cite short-term weather effects as evidence to support or refute long-term climate transformations, which displays a fundamental misunderstanding about weather and climate distinctions. Confusion about weather and climate…

Tackling Weather and Climate Change Creatively in Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dale, Murray

2013-01-01

In this article, the author offers some practical support for teaching about weather, climate and climate change. In England, weather and climate are traditionally taught within the geography curriculum, although it is actually a very scientific subject, involving skills such as making careful observations and measurements, interpreting data…

Teaching Controversial Issues in Geography: Climate Change Education in Singaporean Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Li-Ching; Seow, Tricia

2015-01-01

In this article, the authors investigate 6 Singaporean geography teachers' understandings of climate change education. The findings indicate that the participants held very different beliefs about the primary purposes of climate change education, in spite of the highly centralized national curriculum and the unambiguous state support for the…

Water, climate change, and forests: watershed stewardship for a changing climate

Treesearch

Michael J. Furniss; Brian P. Staab; Sherry Hazelhurst; Cathrine F. Clifton; Kenneth B. Roby; Bonnie L. Ilhadrt; Albert H. Todd; Leslie M. Reid; Sarah J. Hines; Karen A. Bennett; Charles H. Luce; Pamela J. Edwards

2010-01-01

Water from forested watersheds provides irreplaceable habitat for aquatic and riparian species and supports our homes, farms, industries, and energy production. Secure, high-quality water from forests is fundamental to our prosperity and our stewardship responsibility.Yet population pressures, land uses, and rapid climate change combine to seriously...

A survey of African American physicians on the health effects of climate change.

PubMed

Sarfaty, Mona; Mitchell, Mark; Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward W

2014-11-28

The U.S. National Climate Assessment concluded that climate change is harming the health of many Americans and identified people in some communities of color as particularly vulnerable to these effects. In Spring 2014, we surveyed members of the National Medical Association, a society of African American physicians who care for a disproportionate number of African American patients, to determine whether they were seeing the health effects of climate change in their practices; the response rate was 30% (n = 284). Over 86% of respondents indicated that climate change was relevant to direct patient care, and 61% that their own patients were already being harmed by climate change moderately or a great deal. The most commonly reported health effects were injuries from severe storms, floods, and wildfires (88%), increases in severity of chronic disease due to air pollution (88%), and allergic symptoms from prolonged exposure to plants or mold (80%). The majority of survey respondents support medical training, patient and public education regarding the impact of climate change on health, and advocacy by their professional society; nearly all respondents indicated that the US should invest in significant efforts to protect people from the health effects of climate change (88%), and to reduce the potential impacts of climate change (93%). These findings suggest that African American physicians are currently seeing the health impacts of climate change among their patients, and that they support a range of responses by the medical profession, and public policy makers, to prevent further harm.

Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation’s Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective

PubMed Central

Unsworth, Kerrie L.; Russell, Sally V.; Davis, Matthew C.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we argue that individuals – as members of society – play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009

Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.

PubMed

Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C

2016-01-01

In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

PubMed Central

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes. PMID:24836442

The Trajectories of Adolescents' Perceptions of School Climate, Deviant Peer Affiliation, and Behavioral Problems during the Middle School Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ming-Te; Dishion, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

This longitudinal study examined trajectories of change in adolescents' perceptions of four dimensions of school climate (academic support, behavior management, teacher social support, and peer social support) and the effects of such trajectories on adolescent problem behaviors. We also tested whether school climate moderated the associations…

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

PubMed

Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-smart agriculture for food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.

2014-12-01

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.

Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

As the world's most rapidly growing source of energy, wind power has vast potential for mitigating climate change and advancing global environmental sustainability. Yet, the challenges facing wind energy remain both complex and substantial. Two such challenges are: 1) wildlife impacts; and 2) perceived negative effects on tourism. This dissertation examines these challenges in a multi-paper format, and also investigates the role that climate change perceptions play in garnering public support for wind power. The first paper assesses optimal approaches for addressing wind power's wildlife impacts. Comparative analysis reveals that avian mortality from turbines ranks far behind avian mortality from a number of other anthropogenic sources. Additionally, although bats have recently emerged as more vulnerable to wind turbines than birds, they are generally less federally protected. The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) protects over 800 bird species, regardless of their threatened or endangered status. Moreover, it criminalizes the incidental take of birds without a permit and simultaneously grants no permits for such incidental take, thereby creating a legal conundrum for the wind industry. An examination of the legislative and case history of the MBTA, however, reveals that wind operators are not likely to be prosecuted for incidental take if they cooperate with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and take reasonable steps to reduce siting and operational impacts. Furthermore, this study's analysis reveals modest wildlife impacts from wind power, in comparison with numerous other energy sources. Scientific-research, legal, and policy recommendations are provided to update the present legal and regulatory regime under the MBTA and to minimize avian and bat impacts. For instance, FWS should: establish comprehensive federal guidelines for wind facility siting, permitting, monitoring, and mitigation; and promulgate regulations under the MBTA for the issuance of incidental take permits at wind facilities. Equal protections for bats are also recommended. In examining the potential effect of offshore wind power on coastal tourism, the second paper reports the findings of a summer 2007 survey of over 1,000 out-of-state tourists at Delaware beaches. Randomly sampled beachgoers were shown photo-simulations of wind turbines at increasing distances from shore and asked how each simulation would affect visitation. With wind turbines located six miles offshore, approximately one-quarter would switch to a different beach. This stated avoidance, however, diminishes with increasing wind project distance from shore. Additionally, stated avoidance of a beach with turbines six miles offshore is exceeded by: avoidance of a beach with an equidistant, inland, fossil fuel power plant; attraction to a beach in order to see turbines six miles offshore; and the likelihood of paying for an offshore wind boat tour. Further, logistic regression modeling reveals that neither trip cost nor income significantly influences the likelihood of visiting a beach with offshore wind. These findings suggest that to limit beach avoidance, offshore wind developers could site wind facilities further from shore, particularly in areas with high recreational use. Moreover, with wind turbines six miles offshore serving more as an attraction than as a deterrent, offshore wind development may, in fact, bolster local tourism revenues. The third study examines public perceptions of climate change and the link between those perceptions and support for wind power, both in general and with respect to specific offshore sites. Analyzing data from five surveys, this research uncovers low climate awareness and concern levels overall. Respondents demonstrate a poor understanding of climate change impacts and of how to effectively address climate change. In accordance with the New Ecological Paradigm, still fewer are concerned about climate change. The issue ranks 6th in Delaware and 8th in Cape Cod as a reason for local project support, behind such issues as energy independence, electricity rates, air quality, and fishing and boating. Although disproportionately high percentages in Delaware and Cape Cod support taking climate action now - regardless of significant economic costs - this support appears to stem from the desire for climate mitigation's co-benefits, rather than from the desire to mitigate climate change itself. Furthermore, strong support for taking gradual or no climate action steps reveals evidence for an inaccurate conceptualization of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere and of long-term climate change impacts. Nevertheless, those aware of, and concerned about, climate change, exhibit significantly stronger support for wind power. Climate communicators should therefore: focus on correcting faulty cultural models of climate change, while continuing to provide accurate climate information to the public; and consider discussing the co-benefits of addressing climate change, in addition to the direct, climate mitigation benefits. Through this improved understanding, enhanced political will for addressing climate change through wind energy may be at hand.

Exploring the Climate Literacy Development Utilizing a Learning Progressions Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewes, A.; Breslyn, W.; McGinnis, J. R.; Hestness, E.; Mouza, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions framework, in this exploratory study we report our efforts to identify, describe, and organize the development of learners' understanding of climate change in an empirically supported learning progression (LP). The learning progression framework is a well suited analytical tool for investigating how student thinking develops over time (Duschl et al., 2007). Our primary research question is "How do learners progress over time from an initial to a more sophisticated understanding of climate change?"We followed a development process that involved drafting a hypothetical learning progression based on the science education research literature, consensus documents such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Atlas of Science Literacy. Additionally, we conducted expert reviews with both climate scientists and educational researchers on the content and pedagogical expectations. Data are then collected from learners, which are used to modify the hypothetical learning progression based on how well it describes actual student learning. In this current analysis, we present findings from written assessments (N=294) and in-depth interviews (n=27) with middle school students in which we examine their understanding of the role of human activity, the greenhouse effect as the mechanism of climate change, local and global impacts, and strategies for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The culmination of our research is a proposed, empirically supported LP for climate change. Our LP is framed by consideration of four primary constructs: Human Activity, Mechanism, Impacts, and Mitigation and Adaptation. The conditional LP provides a solid foundation for continued research as well as providing urgently needed guidance to the education community on climate change education (for curriculum, instruction, and assessment). Based on consensus documents like NGSS, the research literature, and data collected in our investigation, as well as review by practicing climate scientists and educational researchers, the climate change LP represents a robust and empirically supported description of how climate change understanding develops over time.

Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

2014-12-01

Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

The Pacific Northwest's Climate Impacts Group: Climate Science in the Public Interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantua, N.; Snover, A.

2006-12-01

Since its inception in 1995, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) (funded under NOAA's Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) Program) has become the leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and climate change on natural and human systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), specifically climate impacts on water, forest, fish and coastal resource systems. The CIG's research provides PNW planners, decision makers, resource managers, local media, and the general public with valuable knowledge of ways in which the region's key natural resources are vulnerable to changes in climate, and how this vulnerability can be reduced. The CIG engages in climate science in the public interest, conducting original research on the causes and consequences of climate variability and change for the PNW and developing forecasts and decision support tools to support the use of this information in federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector resource management decisions. The CIG's focus on the intersection of climate science and public policy has placed the CIG nationally at the forefront of regional climate impacts assessment and integrated analysis.

Risk communication, public engagement, and climate change: a role for emotions.

PubMed

Roeser, Sabine

2012-06-01

This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt their lifestyle. Empirical studies show that people lack a sense of urgency: they experience climate change as a problem that affects people in distant places and in a far future. Several scholars have claimed that emotions might be a necessary tool in communication about climate change. This article sketches a theoretical framework that supports this hypothesis, drawing on insights from the ethics of risk and the philosophy of emotions. It has been shown by various scholars that emotions are important determinants in risk perception. However, emotions are generally considered to be irrational states and are hence excluded from communication and political decision making about risky technologies and climate change, or they are used instrumentally to create support for a position. However, the literature on the ethics of risk shows that the dominant, technocratic approach to risk misses the normative-ethical dimension that is inherent to decisions about acceptable risk. Emotion research shows that emotions are necessary for practical and moral decision making. These insights can be applied to communication about climate change. Emotions are necessary for understanding the moral impact of the risks of climate change, and they also paradigmatically provide for motivation. Emotions might be the missing link in effective communication about climate change. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Public Perception of Climate Change: The Importance of Knowledge and Cultural Worldviews.

PubMed

Shi, Jing; Visschers, Vivianne H M; Siegrist, Michael

2015-12-01

The importance of knowledge for lay people's climate change concerns has been questioned in recent years, as it had been suggested that cultural values are stronger predictors of concern about climate change than knowledge. Studies that simultaneously measured knowledge related to climate change and cultural values have, however, been missing. We conducted a mail survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (N = 1,065). Results suggested that cultural worldviews and climate-related knowledge were significantly related with people's concern about climate change. Also, cultural worldviews and climate-relevant knowledge appeared important for people's willingness to change behaviors and to accept climate change policies. In addition, different types of knowledge were found to have different impacts on people's concern about climate change, their willingness to change behaviors, and their acceptance of policies about climate change. Specifically, causal knowledge significantly increased concern about climate change and willingness to support climate-friendly policies. We therefore concluded that risk communication should focus on causal knowledge, provided this knowledge does not threaten cultural values. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Linking climate change and fish conservation efforts using spatially explicit decision support tools

Treesearch

Douglas P. Peterson; Seth J. Wenger; Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel J. Isaak

2013-01-01

Fisheries professionals are increasingly tasked with incorporating climate change projections into their decisions. Here we demonstrate how a structured decision framework, coupled with analytical tools and spatial data sets, can help integrate climate and biological information to evaluate management alternatives. We present examples that link downscaled climate...

Undergraduate Climate Education: Motivations, Strategies, Successes, and Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirk, Karin B.; Gold, Anne U.; Ledley, Tamara Shapiro; Sullivan, Susan Buhr; Manduca, Cathryn A.; Mogk, David W.; Wiese, Katryn

2014-01-01

Climate literacy is an essential component of a strategy to comprehend and confront the grand challenge of global climate change. However, scientific complexity, societal implications, and political associations make climate change a difficult but important topic to teach. In this paper we report on the results of a survey of undergraduate faculty…

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning About Climate Change—the Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-02-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially non-scientists, to grasp. Science education is a field which can play a crucial role in fostering meaningful education of students to become climate literate citizens (e.g., NOAA 2009; Schreiner et al., 41, 3-50, 2005). If students are, at some point, to participate in societal discussions about the sustainable development of our planet, their learning with respect to such issues needs to be supported. This includes the ability to think critically, to cope with complex scientific evidence, which is often subject to ongoing inquiry, and to reach informed decisions on the basis of factual information as well as values-based considerations. The study presented in this paper focused on efforts to advance students in (1) their conceptual understanding about climate change and (2) their socioscientific reasoning and decision making regarding socioscientific issues in general. Although there is evidence that "knowledge" does not guarantee pro-environmental behavior (e.g. Schreiner et al., 41, 3-50, 2005; Skamp et al., 97(2), 191-217, 2013), conceptual, interdisciplinary understanding of climate change is an important prerequisite to change individuals' attitudes towards climate change and thus to eventually foster climate literate citizens (e.g., Clark et al. 2013). In order to foster conceptual understanding and socioscientific reasoning, a computer-based learning environment with an embedded concept mapping tool was utilized to support senior high school students' learning about climate change and possible solution strategies. The evaluation of the effect of different concept mapping scaffolds focused on the quality of student-generated concept maps, as well as on students' test performance with respect to conceptual knowledge as well as socioscientific reasoning and socioscientific decision making.

Public Understanding of Climate Change: Certainty and Willingness To Act.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fortner, Rosanne W.; Lee, Jae-Young; Corney, Jeffrey R.; Romanello, Samantha; Bonnell, Joseph; Luthy, Brian; Figuerido, Claudia; Ntsiko, Nyathi

2000-01-01

Describes two parallel studies conducted shortly before the Kyoto conference on climate change: (1) an examination of media portrayals of global warming and the certainty with which information was reported; and (2) a telephone survey to assess public knowledge and attitudes about global climate change. Findings do not support a hypothesis that…

Adaptation resources for agriculture: responding to climate variability and change in the midwest and northeast

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report is intended to provide perspective, information, and tools to support agricultural producers in the Midwest and Northeast regions of the U.S. in responding to climate variability and change. Climate change adaptation can be broadly defined to include all adjustments, both planned and unp...

Improving the Nation's Climate Literacy through the Next Generation Science Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grogan, M.; Niepold, F.; Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Breslyn, W. G.; Carley, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science (2009) presented the information that is deemed important for individuals and communities to know and understand about Earth's climate, impacts of climate change, and approaches to adaptation or mitigation by a group of federal agencies, science and educational partners. These principles guided the development of the NRC Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas (2012) and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS, 2013). National Science Foundation recently funded two partnership projects which support the implementation of the climate component of the NGSS using the Climate Literacy framework. The first project, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), was launched in 2010 as a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project. CLEAN's primary effort is to steward a collection of educational resources around energy and climate topics and foster a community that supports learning about climate and energy topics. CLEAN's focus has been to integrate the effective use of the educational resources across all grade levels - with a particular focus on the middle-school through undergraduate levels (grades 6-16) and align the resources with educational standards. The second project, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) program is supported by a Phase II Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) grant awarded to the University System of Maryland (USM) by the National Science Foundation. The MADE-CLEAR project's related goals are to support innovations in interdisciplinary P-20 (preschool through graduate school) climate change education, and develop new pathways for teacher education and professional development leading to expertise in climate change content and pedagogy. Work in Maryland, Delaware (MADE-CLEAR) and other states on the implementation of the NGSS, that will utilize the years of work, the efforts of hundreds of community members and tens of millions of dollars of investment and to increase the nations climate literacy, will be highlighted. We will particularly focus on the partnerships among MADE-CLEAR, NOAA and CLEAN. Climate science and energy are complex topics, with rapidly developing science and technology and the potential for controversy. The NGSS offer educators an opportunity to effectively bring these important subjects into their classrooms across a learning progression spanning K-12 and well beyond. Yet regardless of the pedagogic setting, using a literacy-based approach can provide a sound foundation for building learners' understanding of these topics. In this presentation, we will describe contributions by a group of collaborative projects and organizations to support the NGSS implementation through an integrated Earth system science approach in K-12 education.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Which Moral Foundations Predict Willingness to Make Lifestyle Changes to Avert Climate Change in the USA?

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Janis L.; McLeod, Poppy; Bloomfield, Robert; Allred, Shorna

2016-01-01

Jonathan Haidt’s Moral Foundations Theory identifies five moral axes that can influence human motivation to take action on vital problems like climate change. The theory focuses on five moral foundations, including compassion, fairness, purity, authority, and ingroup loyalty; these have been found to differ between liberals and conservatives as well as Democrats and Republicans. Here we show, based on the Cornell National Social Survey (USA), that valuations of compassion and fairness were strong, positive predictors of willingness to act on climate change, whereas purity had a non-significant tendency in the positive direction (p = 0.07). Ingroup loyalty and authority were not supported as important predictor variables using model selection (ΔAICc__). Compassion and fairness were more highly valued by liberals, whereas purity, authority, and in-group loyalty were more highly valued by conservatives. As in previous studies, participants who were younger, more liberal, and reported greater belief in climate change, also showed increased willingness to act on climate change. Our research supports the potential importance of moral foundations as drivers of intentions with respect to climate change action, and suggests that compassion, fairness, and to a lesser extent, purity, are potential moral pathways for personal action on climate change in the USA. PMID:27760207

Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

2012-12-01

What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives. It underscores the need to understand and support students as they interact with climate change across the contexts of their lives.

Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed. PMID:22712716

Investigating the Climate Change Beliefs, Knowledge, Behaviors, and Cultural Worldviews of Rural Middle School Students and Their Families during an Out-of-School Intervention: A Mixed-Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutierrez, Kristie Susan

2016-01-01

In a recent nationwide survey, 63% of American adults believe that there is global warming, yet 52% received a "grade" of "F" on climate change knowledge and beliefs. Climate change is a politically-charged topic in the 21st century. Even for those who support the 97% of scientists who assert that climate change is occurring,…

Support for Climate Change Policy: Social Psychological and Social Structural Influences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dietz, Thomas; Dan, Amy; Shwom, Rachael

2007-01-01

We investigated preferences for climate change mitigation policies and factors contributing to higher levels of policy support. The sample was comprised of 316 Michigan and Virginia residents, all of whom completed mail surveys. Of the eight policies proposed to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, respondents overwhelmingly indicated they would…

The Effects of Principal's Leadership Style on Support for Innovation: Evidence from Korean Vocational High School Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Joo-Ho

2012-01-01

A climate of innovation and principal leadership in schools are regarded as significant factors in successfully implementing school change or innovation. Nevertheless, the relationship between the school climate supportive of innovation and the principal's leadership has rarely been addressed to determine whether schools successfully perform their…

The role of academic institutions in leveraging engagement and action on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, T. M.; Palca, J.

2016-12-01

Growing global concern over the impact of climate change places climate scientists at the forefront of communicating risks, impacts, and adaptation strategies to non-scientists. Academic institutions can play a leadership role in providing support, incentives, and structures that encourage scientific engagement on this, and other, complex societal and scientific issues. This presentation will focus on `best practices' in supporting university scientists in communicating their science and engaging in thoughtful dialogue with decision makers, managers, media, and public audiences. For example, institutions that can provide significant administrative support for science communication (press officers, training workshops) may decrease barriers between academic science and public knowledge. Additionally, financial (or similar) support in the form of teaching releases and institutional awards can be utilized to acknowledge the time and effort spent in engagement. This presentation will feature examples from universities, professional societies and other institutions where engagement on climate science is structurally encouraged and supported.

Difficult decisions: Migration from Small Island Developing States under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelman, Ilan

2015-04-01

The impacts of climate change on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are leading to discussions regarding decision-making about the potential need to migrate. Despite the situation being well-documented, with many SIDS aiming to raise the topic to prominence and to take action for themselves, limited support and interest has been forthcoming from external sources. This paper presents, analyzes, and critiques a decision-making flowchart to support actions for SIDS dealing with climate change-linked migration. The flowchart contributes to identifying the pertinent topics to consider and the potential support needed to implement decision-making. The flowchart has significant limitations and there are topics which it cannot resolve. On-the-ground considerations include who decides, finances, implements, monitors, and enforces each decision. Additionally, views within communities differ, hence mechanisms are needed for dealing with differences, while issues to address include moral and legal blame for any climate change-linked migration, the ultimate goal of the decision-making process, the wider role of migration in SIDS communities and the right to judge decision-making and decisions. The conclusions summarize the paper, emphasizing the importance of considering contexts beyond climate change and multiple SIDS voices.

OVERVIEW OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ) PROJECT

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project will develop model-estimated impacts of global climate changes on ozone and particulate matter (PM) in direct support of the USEPA Global Change Research Program's (GCRP) national air quality assessment. EPA's urban/reg...

EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation summarizes recent results produced in support of the assessment of climate change impacts on ozone and particulate matter over the continental United States. Preliminary findings of climate scenario, meteorologically-drive emissions and air quality simulation a...

The Risks of Missing the 2°C Target and the Risks of Framing the Target As 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, L. H.

2014-12-01

The publication of IPCC AR5 has made it very clear that we are at risk of missing the 2°C target. It has also made it clear that the risks of missing this target would be very dire. But when read through a precautionary lens, it also illustrates potential risks of framing an appropriate climate target as 2°C. We ought to be doing all we can to limit the extent of climate change as much as possible, and framing our target as limiting warming to 2°C may mask the demandingness and urgency of addressing climate change aggressively and holistically. In this session I will summarize my work on what precaution demands in the face of climate change and discuss how it applies to AR5. I argue for a Catastrophic Precautionary Principle that gives us strong moral reasons to take precautionary measures against threats of catastrophe, such as those posed by climate change. I will explain how the IPCC's discussion of the five reasons for concern about climate change support a strong moral argument that we ought to be taking a much more precautionary approach to climate policy than is currently evidenced by UNFCCC agreements and domestic policies around the world. While AR5 supports the conclusion that we should not risk missing the 2°C target, it also supports reevaluating what our target - and more generally what our comprehensive approach to climate policy - should be. In this way, I will discuss the complex science-ethics-policy nexus and the role of climate science in guiding precautionary global climate policies.

Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.

PubMed

Joshi, H D; Dhimal, B; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2011-04-01

Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal.

Projecting the global distribution of the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, based on IPCC climate futures

Treesearch

Gisselle Yang Xie; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate...

Speaking of climate change: From what we know to how we know it (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holthuis, N.

2013-12-01

Researchers have found that a deficit model of knowledge doesn't fully explain why some people continue to deny that climate change is happening or that human activity is to blame. Recent work in science education has focused our attention on the need to go beyond simply communicating what we know about climate change to how we know it. That is, allowing and encouraging students to grapple with the processes that scientists have gone through to make their claims builds deeper understanding of why the consensus around climate change is strong, where uncertainties remain, and how to think about implications for society and themselves. This suggests that teachers need to provide scaffolding that builds not only students' understanding of how climate systems work or the causes and effects of climate change but also their capacity to evaluate the scientific evidence behind these claims. What is the evidence for anthropogenic climate change? What data are missing or currently being collected? How sure are scientists about their claims? What claim can be made from a particular set of data? And conversely, what claim cannot be made given these data? Climate change education provides not only an excellent opportunity to integrate science content with such scientific practices, but also an imperative to do so. In this study, we explore how students and teachers may engage collectively in this process of argumentation in order to arrive at a conclusion or claim supported by evidence. We take the position that learning to construct and evaluate arguments involves growth in scientific practices and meta-procedural (epistemic) knowledge This work was conducted over the course of three years through the NASA-funded Stanford Global Climate Change project. Scientists and educators provided teacher professional development on the science of global climate change, pedagogical strategies, and curriculum materials that emphasize both what we know about climate change and we how know it. We conducted an in-depth study of the classrooms of the participating teachers, focusing on the following research questions: 1) What did students learn about climate change and to what extent have their opinions shifted after experiencing this climate change curriculum? 2) How do teachers and students talk about how we know about climate change? 3) What classroom conditions support such talk? Our results show statistically significantly gains from pre to post in students' content knowledge and a shift in their opinions. These gains are positively related to the percentage of students engaged and interacting with one another or with the teacher. Through classroom observations and video recordings, we identify how teachers and students talk about how we know about climate change and we discuss how that talk can be supported by classroom implementation, the curriculum, and professional development.

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

Treesearch

M. D. Petrie; J. B. Bradford; R. M. Hubbard; W. K. Lauenroth; C. M. Andrews; D. R. Schlaepfer

2017-01-01

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key...

Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2015-11-01

Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia

PubMed Central

Noss, Reed

2017-01-01

Background Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. Key Questions The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism–stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism–stability linkage for conservation? Conclusions Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large. PMID:28064195

Approaches to Climate Literacy at the American Museum of Natural History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, R. V.

2015-12-01

The American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) offers a suite of courses, workshops and special events in climate change education for audiences ranging from young children to adults and utilizing both online and in-person formats. These offerings are supported by rich digital resources including video, animations and data visualizations. These efforts have the potential to raise awareness of climate change, deepen understandings and improve public discourse and decision-making on this critical issue. For adult audiences, Our Earth's Future offers participants a five-week course at AMNH that focuses on climate change science, impacts and communication, taking advantage of both AMNH expertise and exhibitry. Online versions of this course include both a ten-week course as well as three different three-week thematic courses. (The longer course is now available as a MOOC in Coursera.) These activities have been supported by a grant from IMLS. The results of independent evaluation provide insight into participant needs and how they might be addressed. For K-12 educators, the Museum's Seminars on Science program of online teacher professional development offers, in collaboration with its higher education partners, a graduate course in climate change that is authored by both an AMNH curator and leading NASA scientists. Developed with support from both NASA and NSF, the course provides a semester-equivalent introduction to climate change science for educators, including digital resources, assignments and discussions for classroom use. The results of independent evaluation will be presented. For younger audiences, the presentation will highlight resources from the AMNH Ology site; television programming conducted in partnership with HBO; Science Bulletinsvideos that include current climate change research; resources related to the GRACE mission for tracking water from space; and special event programming at the Museum on climate change. This presentation will address the opportunities and challenges of climate change education in an informal science institution as well as enduring questions of institutional capacity, scale and sustainability.

Climate Change Research. Agencies Have Data-Sharing Policies but Could Do More to Enhance the Availability of Data from Federally Funded Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

Much of the nearly $2 billion annual climate change research budget supports grants from the Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and...requirements, policies, and practices for external climate change researchers funded by DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF; and (3) the extent to which these agencies...foster data sharing. GAO examined requirements, policies, and practices and surveyed the 64 officials managing climate change grants at these agencies

Data Mashups: Potential Contribution to Decision Support on Climate Change and Health

PubMed Central

Fleming, Lora E.; Haines, Andy; Golding, Brian; Kessel, Anthony; Cichowska, Anna; Sabel, Clive E.; Depledge, Michael H.; Sarran, Christophe; Osborne, Nicholas J.; Whitmore, Ceri; Cocksedge, Nicola; Bloomfield, Daniel

2014-01-01

Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on “data mashups”. These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers. PMID:24499879

Data mashups: potential contribution to decision support on climate change and health.

PubMed

Fleming, Lora E; Haines, Andy; Golding, Brian; Kessel, Anthony; Cichowska, Anna; Sabel, Clive E; Depledge, Michael H; Sarran, Christophe; Osborne, Nicholas J; Whitmore, Ceri; Cocksedge, Nicola; Bloomfield, Daniel

2014-02-04

Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on "data mashups". These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers.

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Climate regulation services by urban lakes in Bucharest city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioja, Cristian; Cheval, Sorin; Vanau, Gabriel; Sandric, Ionut; Onose, Diana; Carstea, Elfrida

2017-04-01

Urban ecosystems services assessment is an important challenge for practitioners, due to the high complexity of relations between urban systems components, high vulnerability to climate change, and consequences in social-economical systems. Urban lakes represent a significant component in more European cities (average 5% of total surface). Adequate urban management supports diverse benefits of urban lakes: clean water availability, mediation of waste, toxics and other nuisance, air quality and climate regulation, support for physical, intelectual or spiritual interactions. Due to underestimation of climate change and misfit urban planning decision, these benefits may be lost or chaged into diservices. The aim of the paper is to assess the changes in terms of the urban lakes contribution role to regulate urban climate, using the Bucharest as case study. Using sensors and Modis, Sentinel and Landsat images, the paper experiments the evolution of climate regulation services of urban lakes under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change between 2008 and 2015. Urban lakes management has to include specific measures in order to help the cities to become more sustainable, resilient, liveable and healthly.

Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2014-01-01

Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records (CDRs) are high level Landsat data products that support land surface change studies. Climate Data Records, as defined by the National Research Council, are a time series of measurements with sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to identify climate variability and change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using the valuable 40-year Landsat archive to create CDRs that can be used to document changes to Earth’s terrestrial environment.

Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

PubMed

Vezér, Martin A

2016-04-01

To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational Use of the US Army Reserve in Foreign Disaster Relief to Support the United States Government’s Strategic Use of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-21

FDR). Global climate change , urbanization, growing natural resources scarcity, and other factors will increase the need for humanitarian assistance......additional military support to the United States Government’s agencies in Foreign Disaster Relief (FDR). Global climate change , urbanization, growing

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

Examining Long-Term Global Climate Change on the Web.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huntoon, Jacqueline E.; Ridky, Robert K.

2002-01-01

Describes a web-based, inquiry-oriented activity that enables students to examine long-term global climate change. Supports instruction in other topics such as population growth. (Contains 34 references.) (DDR)

Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa

2013-04-01

Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND HUMAN HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

Human health and well-being are and will be affected by climate change, both directly through changes in extreme weather events and indirectly through weather induced changes in societal systems and their supporting ecosystems. The goal of this study was to develop and apply a b...

Proximity to coast is linked to climate change belief.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L; Evans, Laurel; Sibley, Chris G; Ries, Jan; Cunningham, Andrew

2014-01-01

Psychologists have examined the many psychological barriers to both climate change belief and concern. One barrier is the belief that climate change is too uncertain, and likely to happen in distant places and times, to people unlike oneself. Related to this perceived psychological distance of climate change, studies have shown that direct experience of the effects of climate change increases climate change concern. The present study examined the relationship between physical proximity to the coastline and climate change belief, as proximity may be related to experiencing or anticipating the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise. We show, in a national probability sample of 5,815 New Zealanders, that people living in closer proximity to the shoreline expressed greater belief that climate change is real and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions. This proximity effect held when adjusting for height above sea level and regional poverty. The model also included individual differences in respondents' sex, age, education, political orientation, and wealth. The results indicate that physical place plays a role in the psychological acceptance of climate change, perhaps because the effects of climate change become more concrete and local.

Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Gibbs, Holly; Woodruff, Rosalie

2008-01-01

Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2012-04-01

At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate models and projections, impact and risk parameters and to know what are stakeholder needs related to climate change in a climate service perspective. The preliminary results gained from the workshop showed that DESYCO is an helpful tool for the impact and risk assessment related to climate change that could be improved in order to fulfill stakeholder needs.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-01

CH4, N2O, O3, etc. Aerosols Clouds ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION WATER CYCLE LAND-USE/ LAND-COVER CHANGE HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES CARBON...Oceanographic Institution. Climate Variability and Change ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE...their access to and use of water. CCSP-supported research on the global water cycle focuses on how natural processes and human activities influence the

Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Noss, Reed

2017-01-01

Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism-stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism-stability linkage for conservation? Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Climate Change: Using Field Studies to Prepare the Next Generation of Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, T. C.; Hare, J.

2004-05-01

Global Climate Change is a new and invigorating concept in the pre-college classroom. To some it portends the altering of the Earth's climate by introducing anthropogenic influences and for others the natural progression of the Earth's systems. Regardless, climate change involves a plethora of environmental interactions and comprehension is a challenge for both teachers and students. This paper addresses a field studies program that prepares students to complete research projects associated with climate models affecting montane environments. It emphasizes a partnership between researchers from universities, government agencies, and public schools and their support of pre-college students in inquiry learning and research activities. Beginning in 1994 students from a Pennsylvania high school and schools in Scotland have engaged in biannual holistic studies of montane and glacial environments with the objective of completing investigations concerning the energy budgets of these environments. This paper will focus on 2000 and 2002, and the support and partnership of Dr. Jeff Hare and CIRES in designing, supporting, and providing professional interpretations,while assisting teachers and students toward the completion of recognized papers regarding climate studies. Introducing students to the employment and operation of complex field equipment will be discussed.

Linking research, education and public engagement in geoscience: Leadership and strategic partnerships (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harcourt, P.

2017-12-01

Addressing the urgent issue of climate change requires mitigation and adaptation actions on individual to global scales, and appropriate action must be based upon geoscience literacy across population sectors. The NSF-funded MADE CLEAR (Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research) project provides a coordinated approach to embed climate change into education programs at the university level, in formal K12 classrooms, and among informal educators. We have worked with state agencies, university systems, non-profit organizations, and community groups to establish and support research-based education about climate change. In this panel I will describe how MADE CLEAR approached the task of infusing climate change education across sectors in the highly diverse states of Delaware and Maryland. I will share the characteristics of our strongest alliances, an analysis of significant barriers to climate change education, and our perspective on the outlook for the future of climate change education.

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L; Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L; Bilello, Daniel E

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growingmore » electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.« less

The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2008-12-01

Local governments, the first responders to public health, safety and environmental hazards, must act now to lessen vulnerabilities to climate change. They must plan for and invest in "adapting" to inevitable impacts such as flood, fire, and draught that will occur notwithstanding best efforts to mitigate climate change. CCAP's Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is developing a framework for informed decision making on climate adaptation. Looking ahead to projected climate impacts and 'back casting' can identify what is needed now to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build local resiliency to climate change. CCAP's partnership with King County (WA), Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade County (FL), Milwaukee, Nassau County (NY), Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto is advancing policy discussions to ensure that state and local governments consider climate change when making decisions about infrastructure, transportation, land use, and resource management. Through the Initiative, local leaders will incorporate climate change into daily urban management and planning activities, proactively engage city and county managers and the public in developing solutions, and build community resilience. One goal is to change both institutional and public attitudes and behaviors. Determining appropriate adaptation strategies for each jurisdiction requires Asking the Climate Question: "How does what we are doing increase our resilience to climate change?" Over the next three years, the Initiative will design and implement specific adaptation plans, policies and 'catalytic' projects, collect and disseminate "best practices," and participate in framing national climate policy discussions. In the coming years, policy-makers will have to consider climate change in major infrastructure development decisions. If they are to be successful and have the resources they need, national climate change policy and emerging legislation will have to support these communities. The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative will equip CCAP partners with the knowledge and tools to get started on planning and implementing adaptation measures. Drawing on the best and brightest state, local and national policy experts, it will recommend a comprehensive set of actions that will enable the federal government to support local resiliency efforts. Toward that end, CCAP has identified three core principles for national climate adaptation policy: 1. National climate policy should support state and local adaptation planning and implementation, such as through use of cap-and-trade allowance auction proceeds; 2. Federal agencies should provide adaptation assistance to state and local governments, including regional impact assessments, downscaled climate model data, updated flood maps, planning tools, drought early warning, and implementation guidance; and 3. A national climate service and extension network needs to be established to aid local governments implementing resilience measures in collaboration with universities, companies and technical experts around the country.

Promoting Regionally-Based Climate Change Education through Collaborations with Formal and Informal Education Institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stylinski, C.; Griswold, M.

2012-12-01

Improving climate literacy is necessary to effectively respond to climate change impacts. However, climate change education efforts face significant hurdles both in the classroom and in out-of-school settings. These include addressing uncertainity and the complex mix of drivers and impacts that occur over large spatial and temporal scales. These efforts are further hampered by audiences who are disinterested and resisant to discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Bridging formal and informal education experiences focused on climate change offers a potentially powerful strategy to tackle these challenges. In this session, we will describe our NSF-funded Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project, which applies a comprehensive regional partnership among scientists, education researchers, K-12 and informal education practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve public and student understanding of and engagement in climate change issues and solutions. To better understand gaps and opportunities, we have conducted surveys and interviews with K-12, informal, and undergraduate educators and administrators. We found that climate change education aligns with most institutions' missions and efforts, that most educators do not face institutional barriers to climate change education, and that climate change is typically incorporated as part of a host of environmental issues. Despite this, climate change education is still quite limited with few institutions explicitly focusing on climate change in their programming. Additionally, there is little apparent communication among these institutions with regard to this issue. In response to these needs, we have focused the MADE-CLEAR project on creating and providing regionally-relevant resouces and professional development on climate change science, impacts and solutions for both formal and informal educators. Our approach is collaborative and includes strategies to promote networking within and among these two groups. For example, we will lead joint workshops where K-12 teachers can share their in-depth understanding of climate change concepts and links to education standards, while free-choice-learning practitioners can provide their expertise in engaging diverse audiences and supporting more learner-centered teaching. Our resources will further support a formal-informal bridge by helping both groups of educators make climate change relevant to their audiences with local examples of impacts and ways to mitigate or adapt to these impacts. Our project includes design-based research, and thus we will examine how our professional development is translated into practice at different types of institutions and the impact of our approach on enhancing formal-informal education collaborations focused on climate change education.

Trust in climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauchat, Gordon

2018-06-01

Those who distrust climate scientists are more likely to be skeptical of climate change and reluctant to support mitigation policies. Now research shows that scientific interest in early adolescence is associated with increased trust in climate scientists in adulthood irrespective of political ideology.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

PubMed Central

Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats. PMID:27513565

U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, T.; McBride, B.; St. John, C.

2011-12-01

In May 2009, the Chief of Naval Operations established Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) to develop Navy policy, plans, and recommendations regarding future investments to adapt to the world's changing climate. With a near-term focus on the changing Arctic ocean and consequent increase in access to the region, TFCC has adopted a science-based approach in collaboration with other U.S. government agencies, international partners, industry, and academia. TFCC has developed two roadmaps that provide 5-year action plans for the Navy to address the Arctic and global climate change. Critical elements of both roadmaps are assessments of: (1) current and projected climate change, (2) resulting impacts to Naval missions and infrastructure, and (3) associated risks of not taking adaptation actions that are operationally, environmentally, and ecologically sustainable. Through TFCC, the Navy acknowledges the link between climate change and national security, and engages in extensive outreach and strategic communication to remain informed on the best climate science and promote public understanding and support regarding the Navy's climate change efforts.

Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. This presentation is an opportunity to share some of our findings from this stakeholder engagement with a wider community of scientists working on extreme events. Discussing the use of scientific evidence in UNFCCC loss and damage policy has not been straightforward, since this is a very controversial topic. However, the UNFCCC has now approved a workplan for the next two years and there will be windows of opportunity for interaction between scientists and policymakers. Currently it is not clear what kind of evidence of loss and damage will be required for the Warsaw Mechanism, and in fact, there has been no official discussion under the UNFCCC about what defines loss and damage. One possibility would be to attempt to define loss and damage from climate change from a scientific perspective, and to identify the research gaps which might be addressed to support this. In the presentation we will make a proposal for future research directions, including the development of an inventory of impacts from climate change.

Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kershner, Jessi; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia

2016-01-01

The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

Projecting climate change in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; David P. Coulson; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence

2014-01-01

A set of climate change projections for the United States was developed for use in the 2010 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. These climate projections, along with projections for population dynamics, economic growth, and land use change in the United States, comprise the RPA scenarios and are used in the RPA Assessment to project future renewable resource conditions...

Communities of practice in support of collaborative multi-disciplinary learning and action in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimlich, J. E.; Stylinski, C.; Palmquist, S.; Wasserman, D.

2017-12-01

Collaborative efforts reaching across interdisciplinary boundaries to address controversial issues such as climate change present significant complexities, including developing shared language, agreeing on common outcomes, and even establishing habits of regular dialogue. Such collaborative efforts should include museums, aquariums, zoos, parks, and youth groups as each of these informal education institutions provides a critical avenue for supporting learning about and responding to climate change. The community of practice framework offers a potential effective approach to support learning and action of diverse groups with a shared interest. Our study applied this framework to the NSF-funded Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Education (MADE-CLEAR) project, facilitating informal educators across these two states to advance their climate change education practices, and could provide insight for a building a citywide multi-sector collaborative effort. We found strategies that center on the process of group evolution; support different perspectives, levels of participation, and community spaces; focus on value as defined by members; and balance familiarity and fun produced a dynamic and functional community with a shared practice where none had existed before. Also important was expanding the community-of-practice focus on relationship building to include structured professional development and spin-off opportunities for small-group team-based endeavors. Our findings suggest that this collaborative professional learning approach is well suited to diverse groups seeking creative solutions to complex and even divisive challenges.

Climate Change Anticipation on Supporting Capacity of Fishing Environment in the Coastal Area of Tanjungmas Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Indah Kurniasih Wahyu; Hadi, Sudharto P.

2018-02-01

Climate change is no longer a debate about its existence but already a problem shared between communities, between agencies, between countries even global for handling serious because so many aspects of life and the environment is affected, especially for communities in coastal environments This climate change is a threat to the Earth, because it can affect all aspects of life and will damage the balance of life of Earth Climate change happens slowly in a fairly long period of time and it is a change that is hard to avoid. These Phenomena will give effect to the various facets of life. Semarang as areas located to Java and bordering the Java Sea are at high risk exposed to the impacts of climate change Also not a few residents of the city of Semarang who settled in the northern part of the city of Semarang and also have a livelihood as farmers/peasants and fishermen Many industrial centers or attractions that are prone to impacted by climate change. Thus, the anticipation of climate change on resources support neighborhood of fishermen in the coastal area of Tanjungmas Semarang interesting for further review. This study aims to find out more the influence of climate change on the environment of fishing identify potential danger due to the impacts of climate change on coastal areas of Tanjungmas Semarang The research was conducted through surveys, interviews and field observation without a list of questions to obtain primary and secondary data As for the analysis undertaken, namely the analysis of climate change on the coastal environment, the analysis of productivity of fishermen as well as the analysis of the likelihood of disaster risk at the coast due to climate change. From the results of the study the occurrence of sea rise as one of the indicators of climate change in the coastal City of Semarang to reach 0.8 mm/year and average soil degradation that ranged between 5 - 12 cm/year cause most coastal communities as well as the social life of the agricultural areas of its economy relies on the resources becoming increasingly erratic.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health.

PubMed

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-12-09

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change's health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan to enhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program. The report responds to the Presidents direction that climate change research activities be accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and periodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the origal plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

When truth is personally inconvenient, attitudes change: the impact of extreme weather on implicit support for green politicians and explicit climate-change beliefs.

PubMed

Rudman, Laurie A; McLean, Meghan C; Bunzl, Martin

2013-11-01

A naturalistic investigation of New Jersey residents, both before and after they experienced Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, examined support for politicians committed or opposed to policies designed to combat climate change. At Time 1, before both hurricanes, participants showed negative implicit attitudes toward a green politician, but at Time 2, after the hurricanes, participants drawn from the same cohort showed a reversed automatic preference. Moreover, those who were significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy were especially likely to implicitly prefer the green politician, and implicit attitudes were the best predictor of voting after the storms, whereas explicit climate-change beliefs was the best predictor before the storms. In concert, the results suggest that direct experience with extreme weather can increase pro-environmentalism, and further support conceptualizing affective experiences as a source of implicit attitudes.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Mather, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerry; McRae, David; Verrall, Ken; Walker, Dylan

2010-01-01

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. PMID:20616990

NASA Contributions to the Development and Testing of Climate Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houser, P. R.; Leidner, A. K.; Tsaoussi, L.; Kaye, J. A.

2014-12-01

NASA is a major contributor the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), a central component of the 2012-2022 U.S. Global Change Research Program's Strategic Plan. NASA supports a range of global climate and related environmental assessment activities through its data records, models, and model-produced data sets, as well as through involvement of agency personnel. These assessments provide important information on climate change and are used by policymakers, especially with the recent increased interest in climate vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation. Climate indicators provide a clear and concise way of communicating to the NCA audiences about not only status and trends of physical drivers of the climate system, but also the ecological and socioeconomic impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses to those drivers. NASA is enhancing its participation in future NCAs by encouraging the developing and testing of potential indicators that best address the needs expressed in the NCA indicator vision and that leverage NASA's capabilities. This presentation will highlight a suite of new climate indicators that draws significantly from NASA -produced data and/or modeling products, to support decisions related to impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation associated with climate and global change.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health

PubMed Central

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-01-01

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change’s health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities. PMID:26690194

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements in Understanding AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, S. E.

2016-12-01

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects on improving the understanding Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its impact on decadal predictability, and its relationship with the overall climate system.

Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinley, Galen A.

2008-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George

2014-11-01

Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.

Climate change impacts on global food security.

PubMed

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Urban Climate Resilience - Connecting climate models with decision support cyberinfrastructure using open standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermudez, L. E.; Percivall, G.; Idol, T. A.

2015-12-01

Experts in climate modeling, remote sensing of the Earth, and cyber infrastructure must work together in order to make climate predictions available to decision makers. Such experts and decision makers worked together in the Open Geospatial Consortium's (OGC) Testbed 11 to address a scenario of population displacement by coastal inundation due to the predicted sea level rise. In a Policy Fact Sheet "Harnessing Climate Data to Boost Ecosystem & Water Resilience", issued by White House Office of Science and Technology (OSTP) in December 2014, OGC committed to increase access to climate change information using open standards. In July 2015, the OGC Testbed 11 Urban Climate Resilience activity delivered on that commitment with open standards based support for climate-change preparedness. Using open standards such as the OGC Web Coverage Service and Web Processing Service and the NetCDF and GMLJP2 encoding standards, Testbed 11 deployed an interoperable high-resolution flood model to bring climate model outputs together with global change assessment models and other remote sensing data for decision support. Methods to confirm model predictions and to allow "what-if-scenarios" included in-situ sensor webs and crowdsourcing. A scenario was in two locations: San Francisco Bay Area and Mozambique. The scenarios demonstrated interoperation and capabilities of open geospatial specifications in supporting data services and processing services. The resultant High Resolution Flood Information System addressed access and control of simulation models and high-resolution data in an open, worldwide, collaborative Web environment. The scenarios examined the feasibility and capability of existing OGC geospatial Web service specifications in supporting the on-demand, dynamic serving of flood information from models with forecasting capacity. Results of this testbed included identification of standards and best practices that help researchers and cities deal with climate-related issues. Results of the testbeds will now be deployed in pilot applications. The testbed also identified areas of additional development needed to help identify scientific investments and cyberinfrastructure approaches needed to improve the application of climate science research results to urban climate resilence.

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

PubMed Central

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

PubMed

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

PubMed

Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

Climate extremes in the Pacific: improving seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures to improve resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Spillman, C. M.

2012-04-01

Climate change and climate extremes have a major impact on Australia and Pacific Island countries. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures, the first being the most destructive events for terrestrial systems, while the latter has the potential to devastate ocean ecosystems through coral bleaching. As a practical response to climate change, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program (PACCSAP), we are developing enhanced web-based information tools for providing seasonal forecasts for climatic extremes in the Western Pacific. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas. Interannual variability in the intensity and distribution of tropical cyclones is large, and presently greater than any trends that are ascribable to climate change. In the warming environment, predicting tropical cyclone occurrence based on historical relationships, with predictors such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now frequently lying outside of the range of past variability meaning that it is not possible to find historical analogues for the seasonal conditions often faced by Pacific countries. Elevated SSTs are the primary trigger for mass coral bleaching events, which can lead to widespread damage and mortality on reef systems. Degraded coral reefs present many problems, including long-term loss of tourism and potential loss or degradation of fisheries. The monitoring and prediction of thermal stress events enables the support of a range of adaptive and management activities that could improve reef resilience to extreme conditions. Using the climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia), we aim to improve accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and extreme SSTs for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of Australia and Pacific Island Countries under climate change. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted with the support of the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H.

2014-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana, G. L.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.; Piechota, T.

2008-12-01

The Great Basin is characterized by complex basin and range topography, arid to semiarid climate, and a history of sensitivity to climate change. Mountain areas comprise about 10% of the landscape, yet are the areas of highest precipitation and generate 85% of groundwater recharge and most surface runoff. These characteristics provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of climate change. The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision "to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders." Six major strategies are proposed to develop infrastructure needs and attain our vision: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change at a regional and sub-regional scale(Climate Modeling Component) 2) Analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Assess effects on human systems and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Train teachers and students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). Two new climate observational transects will be established across Great Basin Ranges, one anticipated on a mountain range in southern Nevada and the second to be located in north-central Nevada. Climatic, hydrologic and ecological data from these transects will be downloaded into high capacity data storage units and made available to researchers through creation of the Nevada climate change portal. Our research will aim to answer two interdisciplinary science questions key to understanding the effects of future climate change on Great Basin mountain ecosystems and the potential management strategies for responding to these changes: 1) How will climate change affect water resources and linked ecosystem resources and human systems? And 2) How will climate change affect disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, insect outbreaks, droughts) and linked systems? Infrastructure developed through this project will provide new interdisciplinary capability to detect, analyze, and model effects of regional climate change in mountainous regions of the west and provide a major contribution to existing climate change research and monitoring networks.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

2014-01-01

Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

Climate change reference guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

PubMed

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-10-01

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.

PubMed

Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas

2017-05-01

Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.

Climate Change and Collective Violence.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

2017-03-20

Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

The long view: Causes of climate change over the instrumental period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Polson, D.; Iles, C. E.; Bronnimann, S.

2016-12-01

The period of instrumentally recorded data has seen remarkable changes in climate, with periods of rapid warming, and periods of stagnation or cooling. A recent analysis of the observed temperature change from the instrumental record confirms that most of the warming recorded since the middle of the 20rst century has been caused by human influences, but shows large uncertainty in separating greenhouse gas from aerosol response if accounting for model uncertainty. The contribution by natural forcing and internal variability to the recent warming is estimated to be small, but becomes more important when analysing climate change over earlier or shorter time periods. For example, the enigmatic early 20th century warming was a period of strong climate anomalies, including the US dustbowl drought and exceptional heat waves, and pronounced Arctic warming. Attribution results suggests that about half of the global warming 1901-1950 was forced by greenhouse gases increases, with an anomalously strong contribution by climate variability, and contributions by natural forcing. Long term variations in circulation are important for some regional climate anomalies. Precipitation is important for impacts of climate change and precipitation changes are uncertain in models. Analysis of the instrumental record suggests a human influence on mean and heavy precipitation, and supports climate model estimates of the spatial pattern of precipitation sensitivity to warming. Broadly, and particularly over ocean, wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier. In conclusion, the historical record provides evidence for a strong response to external forcings, supports climate models, and raises questions about multi-decadal variability.

Interagency Collaboration in Support of Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoedinger, S. E.; Chambers, L. H.; Karsten, J. L.; McDougall, C.; Campbell, D.

2011-12-01

NASA, NOAA and NSF support climate change education (CCE) through their grant programs. As the agencies' investment in CCE has grown, coordination among the agencies has become increasingly important. Although the political landscape and budgets continue to change, the agencies are committed to continued coordination and collaboration. To date, this has taken the form of jointly hosted principal investigator (PI) meetings, the largest of which was held last February (see Eos Vol. 92, No. 24, 14 June 2011). The joint goals are: (1) increased collaboration among grantees and across programs; (2) building capacity among grantees in areas of mutual interest; (3) identification of gaps in investments to date; and (4) identification of opportunities for coordination of evaluation efforts. NOAA's primary funding opportunity for CCE projects is its Environmental Literacy Grant (ELG) Program. Although not exclusively focused on climate, there has been increased emphasis on this area since 2009. Through ELG, NOAA encourages the use of NOAA assets (data, facilities, educational resources, and people) in grantees' work. Thirty awards with a primary focus on CCE have been awarded to institutions of higher education, informal science education, and non-profit organizations involved in K-12 and informal/non-formal education. We anticipate this funding opportunity will continue to support the improvement of climate literacy among various audiences of learners in the future. NASA supported efforts in CCE in an ad hoc way for years. It became a focus area in 2008 with the launch of the NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project. This project funded 57 awards in 2008-2010, the vast majority of them in teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations. Beginning in FY11, NASA moved the project into the Minority University Research and Education Program. Fourteen awards were made to minority higher education institutions, non-profit organizations, and community colleges. These efforts are expected to continue in FY12 and beyond under NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE). A solicitation for the NICE project is currently anticipated in Summer 2012. Through its core programs, NSF supports a variety of efforts designed to improve teaching and learning about CCE in formal and informal settings, often through leveraging NSF-supported climate research. In 2009, dedicated CCE funding supported 10 new awards aimed at focusing NSF investments in key areas: preparing innovators for the workforce; strategies for scaling up and disseminating effective curricula and instructional resources; assessment of student learning of complex climate issues; and, increasing access to CCE and professional development for learners, educators, and policymakers. Phase I of the Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) program, launched in 2010, supports strategic planning activities within 15 regional and thematic partnerships that bring together climate scientists, learning scientists, and education practitioners. A solicitation for CCEP Phase II implementation is anticipated in Fall 2011. We will discuss agency funding opportunities, examples of collaborations, and common metrics/sharing tools for evaluation of CCE projects.

Climate Change Adaptation Practices in Various Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanik, A.; Tekten, D.

2017-08-01

The paper will be a review work on the recent strategies of EU in general, and will underline the inspected sectoral based adaptation practices and action plans of 7 countries; namely Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Denmark, USA and Kenya from Africa continent. Although every countries’ action plan have some similarities on sectoral analysis, each country in accordance with the specific nature of the problem seems to create its own sectoral analysis. Within this context, green and white documents of EU adaptation to climate change, EU strategy on climate change, EU targets of 2020 on climate change and EU adaptation support tools are investigated.

A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

2011-12-01

Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used with existing or proposed operating rules to explore the range of potential climate impacts on lake levels, drought trigger frequency, hydropower generation, and low-flow statistics. Initial system implementation of the Climate Change DSS was focused in the State of Colorado working with water supply agencies in the Front Range to assess local water supply vulnerability to climate change. To facilitate national implementation, the system capitalizes on National Weather Service (NWS) watershed models currently used for operational river forecasting. These models are well calibrated and available for the entire country. The system has been extended to include the ACF and the Sacramento River basins because of the importance of the water resources in these basins. Plans are now being made to expand coverage to include the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. water supply area. The DSS is operational and publicly available (www.climatechangedss.com).

Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renton, David A.; Mushet, David M.; DeKeyser, Edward S.

2015-01-01

Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

It Ain't the Heat, It's the Humanity: Evidence and Implications of a Knowledge-Based Consensus on Man-Made Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; Cook, J.; Nuccitelli, D. A.

2013-12-01

One of the most worrisome misconceptions among the general public about climate change is a belief that scientists disagree not only about the cause of the present climate change, but also whether or not the planet is currently warming. Recent surveys have demonstrated that an overwhelming consensus exists, both within the scientific literature and among scientists with climate expertise, that the planet is warming and humans are driving this climatic change. This disconnect, or 'consensus gap', between scientific agreement and public belief has significant consequences for public understanding of the reality and cause of climate change, as well as support for potential solutions. Ensuring that the consensus message is not simply broadcast but is also accepted as legitimate by the public appears to be a primary education and communications opportunity. While the existence of a consensus is not itself evidence of a position's truth, according to Miller (2013) scientific consensus can be taken as evidence that a position is true if it is 'knowledge-based', satisfying the conditions of social calibration, apparent consilience of evidence, and social diversity. We demonstrate that the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change is knowledge-based, satisfying Miller's criteria. In so doing, we hope to increase confidence in its use as an education and communications tool, and assure the public of its validity. We show the consensus is socially calibrated, based on common evidential standards, ontological schemes, and shared formalism. We establish that consilience of evidence points overwhelmingly to the reality of anthropogenic climate change by examining the evidence from several perspectives. We identify unique fingerprints expected as a result of increased greenhouse forcing, eliminate potential natural drivers of climate change as the cause of the present change, and demonstrate the consistency of the observed climate response with known changes in natural and manmade forcings across a wide variety of indices. Finally, we determine that the consensus is socially diverse, being geographically and disciplinarily varied, supported within public and private institutions, and endorsed by research organizations as well as groups with obvious financial incentives to deny it, such as fossil fuel companies. Additionally, we briefly discuss examples of purported incorrect consensus in climate research, and detail how they fail to satisfy one or more aspects of Miller's criteria. We conclude by discussing the key role that knowledge-based consensus can potentially play in education, influencing public beliefs about climate change, and increasing support for solutions.

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

Threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walton, P.

2013-12-01

Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider scientific engagement with the public to develop climate literacy. The analysis of 3 successive cohorts of students' journals who followed the same degree module identified that threshold concepts do exist within the field, such as those related to: role of ocean circulation, use of proxy indicators, forcing factors and feedback mechanisms. Once identified, the study looked at possible strategies to overcome these barriers to support student climate literacy. It concluded that the use of threshold concepts could be problematic when trying to improve climate literacy, as each individual has their own concepts they find ';troublesome' that do not necessarily relate to others. For scientists this presents the difficulty of how to develop a strategy that supports the individual that is cost and time effective. However, the study identifies that eLearning can be used effectively to help people understand troublesome knowledge.

Lightning-Related Indicators for National Climate Assessment (NCA) Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W.

2017-01-01

Changes in climate can affect the characteristics of lightning (e.g., number of flashes that occur in a region, return stroke current and multiplicity, polarity of charge deposited to ground, and the lightning cloud-top optical energy emission). The NASA/MSFC Lightning Analysis Tool (LAT) monitors these and other quantities in support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. Changes in lightning characteristics lead to changes in lightning-caused impacts to humans (e.g., fatalities, injuries, crop/property damage, wildfires, airport delays, changes in air quality).

Climate risk index for Italy.

PubMed

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-06-13

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate risk index for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-06-01

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Climate risk index for Italy

PubMed Central

Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-01-01

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712797

Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

2013-01-01

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

Assessing the vulnerability of watersheds to climate change: results of national forest watershed vulnerability pilot assessments

Treesearch

Michael J. Furniss; Ken B. Roby; Dan Cenderelli; John Chatel; Caty F. Clifton; Alan Clingenpeel; Polly E. Hays; Dale Higgins; Ken Hodges; Carol Howe; Laura Jungst; Joan Louie; Christine Mai; Ralph Martinez; Kerry Overton; Brian P. Staab; Rory Steinke; Mark Weinhold

2013-01-01

Existing models and predictions project serious changes to worldwide hydrologic processes as a result of global climate change. Projections indicate that significant change may threaten National Forest System watersheds that are an important source of water used to support people, economies, and ecosystems.Wildland managers are expected to anticipate and...

Helping Foundations Build a Clean Energy Future | Working with Us | NREL

Science.gov Websites

climate change globally deserve to be widely recognized and supported." -Sonia Medina, Director for Climate Change, Children's Investment Foundation Fund Photo of one man holding a small window outside with

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.

PubMed

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J; Karoly, David J; Wiseman, John

2018-04-04

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda

PubMed Central

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Karoly, David J.; Wiseman, John

2018-01-01

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda. PMID:29617317

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using Massachusetts Bays’ salt marsh ecosystem as a demonstration. The aim is to synthesize place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for key ecosystem processes in each estuary, in a form that will enable managers to undertake management adaptation planning.

Climate Change and Health: A Position Paper of the American College of Physicians.

PubMed

Crowley, Ryan A

2016-05-03

Climate change could have a devastating effect on human and environmental health. Potential effects of climate change on human health include higher rates of respiratory and heat-related illness, increased prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne diseases, food and water insecurity, and malnutrition. Persons who are elderly, sick, or poor are especially vulnerable to these potential consequences. Addressing climate change could have substantial benefits to human health. In this position paper, the American College of Physicians (ACP) recommends that physicians and the broader health care community throughout the world engage in environmentally sustainable practices that reduce carbon emissions; support efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change; and educate the public, their colleagues, their community, and lawmakers about the health risks posed by climate change. Tackling climate change is an opportunity to dramatically improve human health and avert dire environmental outcomes, and ACP believes that physicians can play a role in achieving this goal.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

2014-12-01

Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective impact on climate literacy can be viewed at http://tinyurl.com/mgwndtr.

From WHAT We Know to HOW We Know It: Students Talk about Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holthuis, N.; Lotan, R.; Saltzman, J.; Mastrandrea, M. D.

2012-12-01

The climate change community has begun to look carefully at how the public understands, or fails to understand, climate change data and the scientific claims made based on these data. Researchers (Bowen et al, 2008) have found that a deficit model of knowledge doesn't fully explain why people continue to disagree about climate change or are unwilling to change their behaviors. "Deniers" do not become "acceptors" simply by filling up their cognitive data banks with more information. This suggests that teachers need to provide scaffolding that supports not only students' understanding of how climate systems work or the causes and effects of climate change but includes how we know what we know. That is, instruction shifts from an exclusive focus on content knowledge to one that aims to develop critical analytic skills and scientific habits of mind. For example, students need to not only understand the effects of human activity on climate change, but also learn to identify and analyze the evidence for anthropogenic climate change and how that evidence has built over time. They can then evaluate the evidence as well as whether the claims made are justified given the data. Climate literacy then includes content knowledge as well as understanding of the scientific practices that lead to building that knowledge. In this study, we report on the research and evaluation of the NASA-funded Stanford Global Climate Change: Professional Development for K-12 Teachers. We focus on data from the last year of a three-year project in which climate scientists and science educators collaborated to develop curriculum and provide professional development for secondary school teachers on the science and the pedagogy of global climate change. As teachers implemented the curriculum in their classrooms, we collected pre- and post-tests, classroom observations, video recordings, and post-implementation interviews with the teachers. Our analyses serve to document: 1) how students talk about HOW we know about climate change, 2) in what ways the curriculum and the teaching practices support this type of student talk, 3) how the quantity and quality of student talk leads to a greater understanding of both WHAT we know about climate change and HOW we know it. Through systematic classroom observations, we documented student engagement and interactions. In-depth analysis of video recordings revealed more about the nature of these interactions and how students talk with each other and the teacher about how we know. From pre- and post-tests of 756 middle school and high school students in 30 classrooms, we found statistically significant differences (t=-19.78, p<0.001) between total scores on the pre-test (68.1 % correct) and post-test (79.1% correct). At the classroom level, these data served to create portraits of classrooms where "how do we know talk" was prevalent and where teaching practices supported such talk. In these classrooms, students showed significant gains in both content knowledge and analytic skills. We argue that these students became climate literate and thus better equipped to critically distinguish between climate science and non-science they might encounter via the internet, the media, or other sources.

Information-computational platform for collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

Analysis of growing volume of related to climate change data from sensors and model outputs requires collaborative multidisciplinary efforts of researchers. To do it timely and in reliable way one needs in modern information-computational infrastructure supporting integrated studies in the field of environmental sciences. Recently developed experimental software and hardware platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) provides required environment for regional climate change related investigations. The platform combines modern web 2.0 approach, GIS-functionality and capabilities to run climate and meteorological models, process large geophysical datasets and support relevant analysis. It also supports joint software development by distributed research groups, and organization of thematic education for students and post-graduate students. In particular, platform software developed includes dedicated modules for numerical processing of regional and global modeling results for consequent analysis and visualization. Also run of integrated into the platform WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, modeling results data preprocessing and visualization is provided. All functions of the platform are accessible by a user through a web-portal using common graphical web-browser in the form of an interactive graphical user interface which provides, particularly, capabilities of selection of geographical region of interest (pan and zoom), data layers manipulation (order, enable/disable, features extraction) and visualization of results. Platform developed provides users with capabilities of heterogeneous geophysical data analysis, including high-resolution data, and discovering of tendencies in climatic and ecosystem changes in the framework of different multidisciplinary researches. Using it even unskilled user without specific knowledge can perform reliable computational processing and visualization of large meteorological, climatic and satellite monitoring datasets through unified graphical web-interface. Partial support of RF Ministry of Education and Science grant 8345, SB RAS Program VIII.80.2 and Projects 69, 131, 140 and APN CBA2012-16NSY project is acknowledged.

Adaptation policies to increase terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Potential utility of a multicriteria approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Bremond, Ariane; Engle, Nathan L.

2014-01-30

Climate change is rapidly undermining terrestrial ecosystem resilience and capacity to continue providing their services to the benefit of humanity and nature. Because of the importance of terrestrial ecosystems to human well-being and supporting services, decision makers throughout the world are busy creating policy responses that secure multiple development and conservation objectives- including that of supporting terrestrial ecosystem resilience in the context of climate change. This article aims to advance analyses on climate policy evaluation and planning in the area of terrestrial ecosystem resilience by discussing adaptation policy options within the ecology-economy-social nexus. The paper evaluates these decisions in themore » realm of terrestrial ecosystem resilience and evaluates the utility of a set of criteria, indicators, and assessment methods, proposed by a new conceptual multi-criteria framework for pro-development climate policy and planning developed by the United Nations Environment Programme. Potential applications of a multicriteria approach to climate policy vis-A -vis terrestrial ecosystems are then explored through two hypothetical case study examples. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the utility of the multi-criteria approach in the context of other climate policy evaluation approaches, considers lessons learned as a result efforts to evaluate climate policy in the realm of terrestrial ecosystems, and reiterates the role of ecosystem resilience in creating sound policies and actions that support the integration of climate change and development goals.« less

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Ren, Guangpeng; Conti, Elena; Salamin, Nicolas

2015-08-16

The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication

Treesearch

Peter V. Caldwell; Chelcy F. Miniat; Katherine J. Elliott; Wayne. T. Swank; Steven T. Brantley; Stephanie H. Laseter

2016-01-01

Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern...

Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

2014-12-01

Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilmes, Curt

2012-01-01

Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

Assessing climate change beliefs: Response effects of question wording and response alternatives.

PubMed

Greenhill, Murni; Leviston, Zoe; Leonard, Rosemary; Walker, Iain

2014-11-01

To date, there is no 'gold standard' on how to best measure public climate change beliefs. We report a study (N = 897) testing four measures of climate change causation beliefs, drawn from four sources: the CSIRO, Griffith University, the Gallup poll, and the Newspoll. We found that question wording influences the outcome of beliefs reported. Questions that did not allow respondents to choose the option of believing in an equal mix of natural and anthropogenic climate change obtained different results to those that included the option. Age and belief groups were found to be important predictors of how consistent people were in reporting their beliefs. Response consistency gave some support to past findings suggesting climate change beliefs reflect something deeper in the individual belief system. Each belief question was assessed against five criterion variables commonly used in climate change literature. Implications for future studies are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

The legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations.

PubMed

Karlsson, Christer; Hjerpe, Mattias; Parker, Charles; Linner, Bjorn-Ola

2012-01-01

Leadeship is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of the three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14-16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

Formal Provenance Representation of the Data and Information Supporting the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilmes, Curt

2014-01-01

The Global Change Information System (GCIS) provides a framework for the formal representation of structured metadata about data and information about global change. The pilot deployment of the system supports the National Climate Assessment (NCA), a major report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). A consumer of that report can use the system to browse and explore that supporting information. Additionally, capturing that information into a structured data model and presenting it in standard formats through well defined open inter- faces, including query interfaces suitable for data mining and linking with other databases, the information becomes valuable for other analytic uses as well.

Temperature-dependent shifts in phenology contribute to the success of exotic species with climate change.

PubMed

Wolkovich, Elizabeth M; Davies, T Jonathan; Schaefer, Hanno; Cleland, Elsa E; Cook, Benjamin I; Travers, Steven E; Willis, Charles G; Davis, Charles C

2013-07-01

The study of how phenology may contribute to the assembly of plant communities has a long history in ecology. Climate change has brought renewed interest in this area, with many studies examining how phenology may contribute to the success of exotic species. In particular, there is increasing evidence that exotic species occupy unique phenological niches and track climate change more closely than native species. Here, we use long-term records of species’ first flowering dates from fi ve northern hemisphere temperate sites (Chinnor, UK and in the United States, Concord, Massachusetts; Fargo, North Dakota; Konza Prairie, Kansas; and Washington,D.C.) to examine whether invaders have distinct phenologies. Using a broad phylogenetic framework, we tested for differences between exotic and native species in mean annual flowering time, phenological changes in response to temperature and precipitation,and longer-term shifts in first flowering dates during recent pronounced climate change (“flowering time shifts”). Across North American sites, exotic species have shifted flowering with climate change while native species, on average, have not. In the three mesic systems, exotic species exhibited higher tracking of interannual variation in temperature,such that flowering advances more with warming, than native species. Across the two grassland systems, however, exotic species differed from native species primarily in responses to precipitation and soil moisture, not temperature. Our findings provide cross-site support for the role of phenology and climate change in explaining species’ invasions.Further, they support recent evidence that exotic species may be important drivers of extended growing seasons observed with climate change in North America.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

2008-12-01

The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector partnership capability.

The Tyndall Petition: Bridging the Gap between Academia and the General Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, K.; Ong, J.

2017-12-01

Climatepedia is a student-founded organization with a mission to communicate climate science to a broad audience. Since its inception in 2011, Climatepedia has grown from a UCLA club to a transitioning 501(c)(3) non-profit organization with members from UCLA, UC Irvine, Yale University, Duke University, UC Santa Barbara, and the University of Pennsylvania. Our main project is the Tyndall Petition (http://www.climatepedia.org/home/tyndallpetition) - the largest online climate petition of its kind - which features nearly 700 signatories who agree that human-induced climate change is an urgent and real issue. Our signatories are PhD level experts with a research focus in climate science or a highly related field. Each signatory has their own profile page that links to other signatories within our network. The Tyndall Petition can be used as a tool to bring transparency to the climate experts that support our statement. In this way, we hope to inform the general audience about the strong scientific consensus about climate change. We also seek to improve climate literacy through exposure to diverse research topics related to climate change. The Tyndall Petition can serve as a mechanism to connect signatories to regional climate issues and the communities affected by these issues. In parallel, Climatepedia administers a Student Certificate Program that trains college students to become climate literate, gain skills in climate communication, and support the growth of the Tyndall Petition.

Forecasting Climate-Induced Ecosystem Changes on Military Installations

Treesearch

James D. Westervelt; William W. Hargrove

2011-01-01

Military installation training lands must be managed to support species at risk as well as to be effective training environments for soldiers. Forecasts from various global climate change models suggest that the habitats associated with some military training installations will face pressures that induce biome-shifts, invasive species, loss of habitat, and changes in...

Toward Equity: Starting to Thaw the Chilly Campus Climate for Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thorner, Prudence M.

1989-01-01

Describes efforts at the University of Virginia to change climate for women within the institution. Describes the process of organizing women, forming a task force, identifying barriers, and producing changes. Concludes that partnership between an association of faculty and staff, and a supportive senior administration has enabled change to come…

Underestimating belief in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, John T.

2018-03-01

People are influenced by second-order beliefs — beliefs about the beliefs of others. New research finds that citizens in the US and China systematically underestimate popular support for taking action to curb climate change. Fortunately, they seem willing and able to correct their misperceptions.

A Scenario-Based Water Conservation Planning Support System (SB-WCPSS)

EPA Science Inventory

The potential of human-induced climate change requires adaptation strategies to minimize human impact, especially in areas sensitivity to climate change. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP), studies are conducted to blunt t...

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban planning process by addressing some of these needs. In this paper we highlight the decision tools available today, discuss their application in selected case studies, and present a gap analysis with opportunities for innovation and future work.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aalst, M.

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts atmore » risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions. There are several ways in which the World Bank Group can continue helping its clients better manage climate risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development: Integrating climate risk management into the project cycle, by adopting early risk identification (for instance by applying a quick and simple risk-screening tool) and following up throughout the design process if necessary. Integrating climate risk management into country and sector dialogues, especially in countries and sectors that are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing internal support for and coordination of climate risk management by, for example, expanding analytical work and capacity for cross-support by the Global Climate Change Team and the Hazard Management Unit of the World Bank and by actively developing climate risk management activities within regional departments. Supporting the establishment of proper financing mechanisms for adaptation, using, for example, the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. New funding mechanisms created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and being made operational by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as the Kyoto Protocol, should be used to leverage maximum adaptation results within the Bank's broad range of development activities and investments. By enhancing climate risk management, the World Bank Group will be able to address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events. In that way, climate risk management will not only guard the Bank's investments in a changing climate but will also improve the impact of development efforts right now.« less

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species.

PubMed

McClure, Michelle M; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane; Boughton, David; Crozier, Lisa; Griffis, Roger; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Lindley, Steven T; Nye, Janet; Rowland, Melanie J; Seney, Erin E; Snover, Amy; Toole, Christopher; VAN Houtan, Kyle

2013-12-01

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

2016-03-01

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

Climate Change in Colorado: Findings and Scientific Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J.; Ray, A.; Averyt, K.; Wolter, K.; Hoerling, M. P.

2008-12-01

In response to the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, Governor Ritter issued the Colorado Climate Action Plan (CCAP) in 2007. In support of the adaptation component of the CCAP, the Colorado Water Conservation Board commissioned the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado to prepare the report "Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation." The objective of "Climate Change in Colorado" is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources. Accordingly, the document focuses on observed trends, modeling, attribution, and projections of hydroclimatic variables that are important for Colorado's water supply. Although many published datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus on the state. Consequently, many important analyses for Colorado are lacking. The report summarizes Colorado-specific findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and presents new analyses derived from existing datasets. Here we will summarize the findings of the report, discuss the extent to which conclusions from West-wide studies hold in Colorado, and highlight the many scientific challenges that were faced in the preparation of the report. These challenges include interpreting observed and projected precipitation and temperature variability and trends, dealing with attribution and uncertainty at the state level, and justifying the relevance of climate model projections in a topographically complex state. A second presentation (Ray et al.) discusses the process of developing the report.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed Central

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-01-01

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

2016-04-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent authorities for adoption; • Simulating the effectiveness of the implementation of certain adaptation measures to address climate change impacts on agriculture; • Developing a stakeholder engagement strategy; • Increasing the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural areas covered by the project, thus enabling well informed decision-making and enhancing readiness for early action in order to address the potential damages and minimize threats posed by climate change; • Developing a framework for mainstreaming agricultural adaptation measures into relevant national and regional policies; • Promoting the replication of the proposed methodology in order to ensure proper coordination of national and regional policies and between authorities.

Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) Centers: Supporting Air Quality and Climate Solutions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA through its Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program, is providing $30 million in funding for three university-based research centers to investigate regional differences in air pollution and the effects of global climate change.

Psychological responses to the proximity of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brügger, Adrian; Dessai, Suraje; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Morton, Thomas A.; Pidgeon, Nicholas F.

2015-12-01

A frequent suggestion to increase individuals' willingness to take action on climate change and to support relevant policies is to highlight its proximal consequences, that is, those that are close in space and time. But previous studies that have tested this proximizing approach have not revealed the expected positive effects on individual action and support for addressing climate change. We present three lines of psychological reasoning that provide compelling arguments as to why highlighting proximal impacts of climate change might not be as effective a way to increase individual mitigation and adaptation efforts as is often assumed. Our contextualization of the proximizing approach within established psychological research suggests that, depending on the particular theoretical perspective one takes on this issue, and on specific individual characteristics suggested by these perspectives, proximizing can bring about the intended positive effects, can have no (visible) effect or can even backfire. Thus, the effects of proximizing are much more complex than is commonly assumed. Revealing this complexity contributes to a refined theoretical understanding of the role that psychological distance plays in the context of climate change and opens up further avenues for future research and for interventions.

Investigating Climate Change Issues With Web-Based Geospatial Inquiry Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, C.; Bodzin, A. M.; Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Peffer, T.; Cirucci, L.

2011-12-01

In the Environmental Literacy and Inquiry middle school Climate Change curriculum we focus on essential climate literacy principles with an emphasis on weather and climate, Earth system energy balance, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and how human activities influence climate change (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/). It incorporates a related set of a framework and design principles to provide guidance for the development of the geospatial technology-integrated Earth and environmental science curriculum materials. Students use virtual globes, Web-based tools including an interactive carbon calculator and geologic timeline, and inquiry-based lab activities to investigate climate change topics. The curriculum includes educative curriculum materials that are designed to promote and support teachers' learning of important climate change content and issues, geospatial pedagogical content knowledge, and geographic spatial thinking. The curriculum includes baseline instructional guidance for teachers and provides implementation and adaptation guidance for teaching with diverse learners including low-level readers, English language learners and students with disabilities. In the curriculum, students use geospatial technology tools including Google Earth with embedded spatial data to investigate global temperature changes, areas affected by climate change, evidence of climate change, and the effects of sea level rise on the existing landscape. We conducted a designed-based research implementation study with urban middle school students. Findings showed that the use of the Climate Change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts.

The Relationship Between Perceptions of Wilderness Character and Attitudes Toward Management Intervention to Adapt Biophysical Resources to a Changing Climate and Nature Restoration at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks.

PubMed

Watson, Alan; Martin, Steve; Christensen, Neal; Fauth, Gregg; Williams, Dan

2015-09-01

In a recent national survey of federal wilderness managers, respondents identified the high priority need for scientific information about public attitudes toward biophysical intervention to adapt to climate change and attitudes of the public toward restoration of natural conditions. In a survey of visitors to one National Park wilderness in California, visitors revealed that they largely do not support biophysical intervention in wilderness to mitigate the effects of climate change, but broad support for activities that restore natural conditions exists. In an attempt to understand how these attitudes vary among visitors, it was found that those visitors who most value naturalness aspects of wilderness character also most positively support restoration and are most negative toward climate change intervention practices. More information about visitor-defined wilderness character attributes is needed and strategic planning to guide intervention decisions and restoration should be a priority. In this study, it was found that wilderness character is largely defined by visitors based on its wildness attributes, which include natural sounds, low density of people, pure water, clean air, and the presence of humans substantially unnoticeable.

The Relationship Between Perceptions of Wilderness Character and Attitudes Toward Management Intervention to Adapt Biophysical Resources to a Changing Climate and Nature Restoration at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Alan; Martin, Steve; Christensen, Neal; Fauth, Gregg; Williams, Dan

2015-09-01

In a recent national survey of federal wilderness managers, respondents identified the high priority need for scientific information about public attitudes toward biophysical intervention to adapt to climate change and attitudes of the public toward restoration of natural conditions. In a survey of visitors to one National Park wilderness in California, visitors revealed that they largely do not support biophysical intervention in wilderness to mitigate the effects of climate change, but broad support for activities that restore natural conditions exists. In an attempt to understand how these attitudes vary among visitors, it was found that those visitors who most value naturalness aspects of wilderness character also most positively support restoration and are most negative toward climate change intervention practices. More information about visitor-defined wilderness character attributes is needed and strategic planning to guide intervention decisions and restoration should be a priority. In this study, it was found that wilderness character is largely defined by visitors based on its wildness attributes, which include natural sounds, low density of people, pure water, clean air, and the presence of humans substantially unnoticeable.

Climate patriots? Concern over climate change and other environmental issues in Australia.

PubMed

Tranter, Bruce; Lester, Libby

2017-08-01

Echoing the anti-pollution and resource conservation campaigns in the United States in the early-to-mid-twentieth century, some scholars advocate mobilising support for environmental issues by harnessing the notion of environmental patriotism. Taking action to reduce the impact of global warming has also been cast as a patriotic cause. Drawing upon quantitative data from a recent national survey, we examine the link between patriotism and environmental attitudes in Australia, focussing upon climate change. We find that patriotism has a largely neutral association with concern over environmental issues, with the exception of climate change and, to a lesser extent, wildlife preservation. Expressing concern over climate change appears to be unpatriotic for some Australians. Even after controlling for political party identification and other important correlates of environmental issue concerns, patriots are less likely than others to prioritise climate change as their most urgent environmental issue and less likely to believe that climate change is actually occurring.

Building a stakeholder network for the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukes, J. S.; Widhalm, M.

2017-12-01

The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a stakeholder-informed, service-driven resource developed under the coordination of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) and with involvement from a diverse mix of contributors throughout the state. The IN CCIA brings together the best available climate change research into a series of reports aimed at helping Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks so they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities. The IN CCIA development process aims to 1) increase the dialogue about climate change across the state, 2) provide Indiana decision makers with accessible, credible climate impact information, and 3) build a network of experts and stakeholders to support ongoing assessment efforts and knowledge sharing. This presentation will report on our experience with developing and maintaining a diverse stakeholder network. We will describe our efforts to connect with stakeholders before, during, and after the development of assessment reports and share the top themes that emerged from our pre-assessment inquires and other interactions.

Collective violence caused by climate change and how it threatens health and human rights.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W

2014-06-14

The weight of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence. This evidence arises from individual studies over wide ranges of time and geographic location, and from two extensive meta-analyses. Complex pathways that underlie this association are not fully understood; however, increased ambient temperatures and extremes of rainfall, with their resultant adverse impacts on the environment and risk factors for violence, appear to play key roles. Collective violence due to climate change poses serious threats to health and human rights, including by causing morbidity and mortality directly and also indirectly by damage to the health-supporting infrastructure of society, forcing people to migrate from their homes and communities, damaging the environment, and diverting human and financial resources. This paper also briefly addresses issues for future research on the relationship between climate change and collective violence, the prevention of collective violence due to climate change, and States' obligations to protect human rights, to prevent collective violence, and to promote and support measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Levy and Sidel. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

The Cool Club: Creating engaging, experimental and creative encounters between young minds and polar researchers at SPRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weeks, S. M.; Pope, A.

2011-12-01

Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider scientific engagement with the public to develop climate literacy. The analysis of 3 successive cohorts of students' journals who followed the same degree module identified that threshold concepts do exist within the field, such as those related to: role of ocean circulation, use of proxy indicators, forcing factors and feedback mechanisms. Once identified, the study looked at possible strategies to overcome these barriers to support student climate literacy. It concluded that the use of threshold concepts could be problematic when trying to improve climate literacy, as each individual has their own concepts they find ';troublesome' that do not necessarily relate to others. For scientists this presents the difficulty of how to develop a strategy that supports the individual that is cost and time effective. However, the study identifies that eLearning can be used effectively to help people understand troublesome knowledge.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

CIRUN: Climate Information Responding to User Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2009-12-01

The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, exceeding the scope of natural climate variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to this certainty of climate variability and change. In response, OSTP and NOAA are considering how comprehensive climate services would best inform decisions about adaptation. Similarly, NASA is considering the optimal configuration of the next generation of Earth, environmental, and climate observations to be deployed over the coming 10-20 years. Moreover, much of the added-value information for specific climate-related decisions will be provided by private, academic and non-governmental organizations. In this context, over the past several years the University of Maryland has established the CIRUN (Climate Information: Responding to User Needs) initiative to identify the nature of national needs for climate information and services from a decision support perspective. To date, CIRUN has brought together decisionmakers in a number of sectors to help understand their perspectives on climate with the goal of improving the usefulness of climate information, observations and prediction products to specific user communities. CIRUN began with a major workshop in October 2007 that convened 430 participants in agriculture, parks and recreation, terrestrial ecosystems, insurance/investment, energy, national security, state/local/municipal, water, human health, commerce and manufacturing, transportation, and coastal/marine sectors. Plenary speakers such as Norman Augustine, R. James Woolsey, James Mahoney, and former Senator Joseph Tydings, breakout panel sessions, and participants provided input based on the following: - How would you characterize the exposure or vulnerability to climate variability or change impacting your organization? - Does climate variability and/or change currently factor into your organization's objectives or operations? - Are any of your existing plans being affected by climate or projections of climate change? - Is your organization developing a plan for adapting to climate change? - What are your needs for climate observations, predictions, and services? Please cite one or more specific examples when possible. - Do you currently have access to the climate information your organization needs? - What next steps are needed to assure effective use of climate services in your decision making? As a result, a dialogue with various user communities and a subsequent series of more sector specific workshops has been established regarding how significantly enhanced climate observations, data management, modeling, and predictions can provide valuable decision support for business and policy decisions. In particular, CIRUN has helped - To identify how users, stakeholders, and decision makers are influenced by climate on time scales from seasons to decades - To identify the needs and requirements of users, stakeholders, and decision makers for climate information, observations, predictions, and services from global to local scales - To identify what adaptation measures are being considered in the private and public sectors, and how this might result in new classes of information for decision support - To recommend principal elements of the path forward toward more effective use of climate services in decision making.

An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

PubMed Central

Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation. Environ Health Perspect 122:1177–1186; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307396 PMID:25003495

Public attention to science and political news and support for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, P. Sol; Nisbet, Erik C.; Myers, Teresa A.

2015-06-01

We examine how attention to science and political news may influence public knowledge, perceived harm, and support for climate mitigation policies. Previous research examining these relationships has not fully accounted for how political ideology shapes the mental processes through which the public interprets media discourses about climate change. We incorporate political ideology and the concept of motivated cognition into our analysis to compare and contrast two prominent models of opinion formation, the scientific literacy model, which posits that disseminating scientific information will move public opinion towards the scientific consensus, and the motivated reasoning model, which posits that individuals will interpret information in a biased manner. Our analysis finds support for both models of opinion formation with key differences across ideological groups. Attention to science news was associated with greater perceptions of harm and knowledge for conservatives, but only additional knowledge for liberals. Supporting the literacy model, greater knowledge was associated with more support for climate mitigation for liberals. In contrast, consistent with motivated reasoning, more knowledgeable conservatives were less supportive of mitigation policy. In addition, attention to political news had a negative association with perceived harm for conservatives but not for liberals.

Climate shapes the protein abundance of dominant soil bacteria.

PubMed

Bastida, Felipe; Crowther, Tom W; Prieto, Iván; Routh, Devin; García, Carlos; Jehmlich, Nico

2018-05-28

Sensitive models of climate change impacts would require a better integration of multi-omics approaches that connect the abundance and activity of microbial populations. Here, we show that climate is a fundamental driver of the protein abundance of Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes and Proteobacteria, supporting the hypothesis that metabolic activity of some dominant phyla may be closely linked to climate. These results may improve our capacity to construct microbial models that better predict the impact of climate change in ecosystem processes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach.

PubMed

Berrang-Ford, L; Maclean, J D; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Ford, J D; Ogden, N H

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

Communication and marketing as climate change-intervention assets a public health perspective.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2008-11-01

The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.

Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

PubMed Central

Berrang-Ford, L.; MacLean, J. D.; Gyorkos, Theresa W.; Ford, J. D.; Ogden, N. H.

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change. PMID:19277107

BASINs 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting Documentation and User's Manual (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the report, BASINS 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting Documentation and User's Manual. This report was prepared by the EPA's Global Change Research Program (GCRP), an assessment-oriented program, that sits within the Office of R...

Advancing Australia's role in climate change and health research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Donna; Pitman, Andrew; Barnett, Adrian; Kaldor, John; Doherty, Peter; Stanley, Fiona

2017-02-01

A major Australian government report published 25 years ago called for urgent investment in research on the impacts of climate change on human health. Since that report's release, less than 0.1% of Australian health funding has been allocated to this area. As the world continues on a high emissions pathway, the health impacts from climate change are increasing in size and complexity. While Australia has established leadership roles in climate science and health research, it must now link these two strengths. Doing so would boost regional understanding of how climate change will affect health and what adaptation strategies are needed to reduce these threats. Such research would support better health planning and decision-making in partnership with other regional countries.

Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa Sylvatica)

Treesearch

Johanna Desprez; Basil V. Iannone III; Peilin Yang; Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei

2014-01-01

Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDA’s Forestry...

Bottom-up perspectives of extreme event and climate change threats to water quality: Drinking water utilities in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekstrom, J.; Klasic, M.; Fencl, A.; Lubell, M.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, E.

2016-12-01

Extreme events impact water quality, which pose serious challenges for drinking water systems. Such extreme events, including wildfire, storm surge, and other weather-related extremes, are projected to increase under a changing climate. It remains unclear what climate change information can support water managers in preparing for more extreme events. Exploring this topic requires understanding the larger question: What is the role of scientific information in adapting to climate change? We present two parts of a three-year study geared to understand whether, where, why and in what way climate information (or the lack of) is used or needed to support long term water quality planning for extreme events. In 2015 we surveyed California drinking water utilities and found a wide range of extreme event/water quality issues, perspectives on the severity of climate change threats, drought impacts and trusted information sources relating to water quality concerns. Approximately 70% of 259 respondents had recently experienced extreme weather-related events that worsen or trigger water quality. Survey results informed development of a case study analysis to gain a more in-depth understanding of what type of - or when - extreme events information could support climate adaptation. Projections of extreme events are often not in a form that is useable for water quality planning. Relative to supply-related projections, water quality has received much less scientific attention, leaving it an assumed scientific information gap and need for management. The question remains whether filling this gap would help adaptation, whom it would help, and in what way. Based on interviews with water systems in Summer 2016, our case study analyses reinforce that extreme events threaten water quality in many ways; largely as secondary impacts of climate change. Secondary impacts involve disinfection byproducts, increasing salinity in the Delta, and the use of lower quality sources. The most common barriers impeding effective adaptation were not related to information. Instead, respondents frequently expressed the obstacles of external institutions not coordinating with their needs. This demonstrates why climate adaptation must simultaneously occur at multiple levels of governance in order for water systems to successfully advance.

The Borderlands and climate change: Chapter 10 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Joan; Gray, Floyd; Dubiel, Russell; Langman, Jeff; Moring, J. Bruce; Norman, Laura M.; Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.

2013-01-01

The prediction of global climate change in response to both natural forces and human activity is one of the defining issues of our times. The unprecedented observational capacity of modern earth-orbiting satellites coupled with the development of robust computational representations (models) of the Earth’s weather and climate systems afford us the opportunity to observe and investigate how these systems work now, how they have worked in the past, and how they will work in the future when forced in specific ways. In the most recent report on global climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Solomon and others, 2007), analyses using multiple climate models support recent observations that the Earth’s climate is changing in response to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. These changes will be significant in the United States–Mexican border region, where the process of climate change affects all of the Borderlands challenge themes discussed in the preceding chapters. The dual possibilities of both significantly-changed climate and increasing variability in climate make it challenging to take full measure of the potential effects because the Borderlands already experience a high degree of interannual variability and climatological extremes.

Air, Climate And Energy (ACE) Centers: Supporting Air Quality And Climate Solutions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA, through its Science to Achieve Results program, is funding three university-based research centers to investigate regional differences in air pollution and effects of climate change, technology, and societal choices on local air quality and health.

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire, is included in this summary.

The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

PubMed Central

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2014-01-01

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2014-05-01

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

2017-12-01

Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Farming may be a choice to use lands where forests would fail. Potential croplands would be limited by suitable soils in the north and irrigation in the south. To recommend an economic strategy that would optimize economic gains/losses due to the effects of climate change will require additional research

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Harrington, Luke J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1.5°C target to be adopted, but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent poverty growth would be required.

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

White House Climate Action Plan Hotly Debated in Senate Hearing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2014-01-01

Emotions ran high among senators at a 16 January U.S. Senate hearing on the White House's Climate Action Plan; the hearing included administration officials and other supporters of the plan as well as opponents. The plan, which President Barack Obama presented in June 2013 (see Eos, 94(27), 239, doi:10.1002/2013EO270003), calls for cutting carbon pollution, preparing the nation for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to address climate change.

Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

2014-05-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate impact analyses and build an important basis of the future adaptation strategies in forestry, agriculture and water management. Funding: The research is supported by the TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0013 and TÁMOP-4.1.1.C-12/1/KONV-2012-0012 (ZENFE) joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate indices, climate change impacts, forestry, regional climate modelling

Introducing a New Elementary GLOBE Book on Climate: Supporting Educators and Students in their Understanding of the Concepts Underlying Climate and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanitski, D.; Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Taylor, J.; Chambers, L. H.

2016-12-01

Much of the focus on climate literacy in K-12 occurs in middle and high school, where teachers and students can dig into the science in some depth. It is important, however, to introduce this topic at an early age, building on a child's natural curiosity about the world around them - but without overwhelming them with frightening climate change impacts. In some U.S. school systems, a recent focus on standardized testing has crowded out science instruction in order to bring up literacy scores. To give teachers a resource to maintain some science instruction under these conditions, a series of Elementary GLOBE books have been developed. These fictional stories describe sound science and engineering practices that are essential for students to learn the process of science while expanding literacy skills, strongly encouraged in the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). The main concepts developed in a new Elementary GLOBE book on climate, titled "What in the World Is Happening to Our Climate?", will be introduced in this presentation. This book complements six other Earth System Science modules within the Elementary GLOBE curriculum and is freely available on the GLOBE website (www.globe.gov/elementaryglobe). The book discusses the concept that climate is changing in different ways and places around the world, and what happens to the climate in one place affects other locations across the globe. Supporting ideas clarify the difference between weather and climate, introduce climate science concepts, reveal the impacts of sea level rise, and help students understand that, while humans are contributing to climate change, they can also participate in solutions that address this challenge. Accompanying teacher's notes and companion classroom activities will be described to help elementary school teachers understand how to approach the subject of climate change with their students.

Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

PubMed

Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

2015-06-01

In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and adaptation will be required to ensure that conservation efforts fully consider the value of geodiversity for supporting biodiversity in the face of a changing climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Earth as humans’ habitat: global climate change and the health of populations

PubMed Central

McMichael, Anthony J

2014-01-01

Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction. PMID:24596901

Introducing a New Concept Inventory on Climate Change to Support Undergraduate Instruction, Teacher Education, Education Research, and Project Evaluation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrow, C. A.; Monsaas, J.; Katzenberger, J.; Afolabi, C. Y.

2013-12-01

The Concept Inventory on Climate Change (CICC) is a new research-based, multiple-choice 'test' that provides a powerful new assessment tool for undergraduate instructors, teacher educators, education researchers, and project evaluators. This presentation will describe the features and the development process of the (CICC). This includes insights about how the development team (co-authors) integrated and augmented their multi-disciplinary expertise. The CICC has been developed in the context of a popular introductory undergraduate weather and climate course at a southeastern research university (N~400-500 per semester). The CICC is not a test for a grade, but is intended to be a useful measure of how well a given teaching and learning experience has succeeded in improving understanding about climate change and related climate concepts. The science content addressed by the CICC is rooted in the national consensus document, 'Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science'. The CICC has been designed to support undergraduate instruction, and may be valuable in comparable contexts that teach about climate change. CICC results can help to inform decisions about the effectiveness of teaching strategies by 1) flagging conceptual issues (PRE-instruction); and 2) detecting conceptual change (POST-instruction). Specific CICC items and their answer choices are informed by the research literature on common misunderstandings about climate and climate change. Each CICC item is rated on a 3-tier scale of the cognitive sophistication the item is calling for, and there is a balance among all three tiers across the full instrument. The CICC development process has involved data-driven changes to successive versions. Data sources have included item statistics from the administration of progressively evolved versions of the CICC in the weather and climate course, group interviews with students, and expert review by climate scientists, educators, and project evaluators based primarily in the US and Canada. The development team provided an exceptionally well integrated, multi-disciplinary expertise in climate science, climate education, education research, and psychometrics. The valuable integration of the team's expertise was driven by: 1) the prior interdisciplinary inclinations of key team members, which made it natural to openly inquire and learn across boundaries of expertise; and 2) the willingness of key team members to become respectful teachers of essential knowledge to other team members. These qualities, in combination with reviewer contributions, have brought the leading edges of natural and social science research together to produce the CICC. This work has been partially supported by a NASA award to the Georgia State University Research Foundation (NNX09AL69G).

Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

2011-12-01

The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in the Earth's climate system. The problem is not simply that the public lacks information. In fact, the problem is often that there is too much information available with much of it complicated and even contradictory. The news media, both print and electronic, tend to exacerbate this by aiming for "balance" even when there is an overwhelming scientific or policy consensus. An additional problem is "reinforcement bias," which tends to lead people to focus on information that supports what they already believe or think they know. Instead, we need an approach that facilitates "meaning-making." A "framing" approach to communication (Frameworks Institute, 2010) supports meaning-making by appealing to strongly held values, providing metaphoric language and models, and illustrating specific applications to real world problems. This approach translates complex science in a way that allows people to examine evidence, make well-informed decisions, and embrace science-based solutions. However, interpreters need specialized training, resources, up-to-date information, and ongoing support to help understand a complex topic such as climate change, its connections to the ocean, and how to relate it to the live animals, habitats and exhibits they interpret.

Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

PubMed

Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G

2018-03-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Supporting UK adaptation: building services for the next set of UK climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, Fai; Lowe, Jason

2016-04-01

As part of the Climate Change Act 2008, the UK Government sets out a national adaptation programme to address the risks and opportunities identified in a national climate change risk assessment (CCRA) every five years. The last risk assessment in 2012 was based on the probabilistic projections for the UK published in 2009 (UKCP09). The second risk assessment will also use information from UKCP09 alongside other evidence on climate projections. However, developments in the science of climate projeciton, and evolving user needs (based partly on what has been learnt about the diverse user requirements of the UK adaptation community from the seven years of delivering and managing UKCP09 products, market research and the peer-reviewed literature) suggest now is an appropriate time to update the projections and how they are delivered. A new set of UK climate projections are now being produced to upgrade UKCP09 to reflect the latest developments in climate science, the first phase of which will be delivered in 2018 to support the third CCRA. A major component of the work is the building of a tailored service to support users of the new projections during their development and to involve users in key decisions so that the projections are of most use. We will set out the plan for the new climate projections that seek to address the evolving user need. We will also present a framework which aims to (i) facilitate the dialogue between users, boundary organisations and producers, reflecting their different decision-making roles (ii) produce scientifically robust, user-relevant climate information (iii) provide the building blocks for developing further climate services to support adaptation activities in the UK.

Climate Literacy and Cyberlearning: Emerging Platforms and Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, M. S.; Wise, S. B.; Buhr, S. M.

2009-12-01

With the release of the Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy: A Guide for Individuals and Communities in the Spring of 2009, an important step toward an shared educational and communication framework about climate science was achieved. Designed as a living document, reviewed and endorsed by the thirteen federal agencies in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (now U.S. Global Change Research Program), the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy complement other Earth system literacy efforts. A variety of emerging efforts have begun to build on the framework using a variety of cyberlearning tools, including an online Climate Literacy course developed by Education and Outreach group at CIRES, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and the Independent Learning program of the Continuing Education Division at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The online course, piloted during the Summer of 2009 with formal classroom teachers and informal science educators, made use of the online Climate Literacy Handbook, which was developed by CIRES Education and Outreach and the Encyclopedia of Earth, which is supported by the National Council for Science and the Environment and hosted by Boston University. This paper will explore challenges and opportunities in the use of cyberlearning tools to support climate literacy efforts, highlight the development of the online course and handbook, and note related emerging cyberlearning platforms and programs for climate literacy, including related efforts by the Climate Literacy Network, the NASA Global Climate Change Education programs, the National STEM Education Distributed Learning (NSDL) and AAAS Project 2061.

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

Public understanding of climate change in the United States.

PubMed

Weber, Elke U; Stern, Paul C

2011-01-01

This article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: Why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, U.S. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? Our review supports a constructivist account of human judgment. Public understanding is affected by the inherent difficulty of understanding climate change, the mismatch between people's usual modes of understanding and the task, and, particularly in the United States, a continuing societal struggle to shape the frames and mental models people use to understand the phenomena. We conclude by discussing ways in which psychology can help to improve public understanding of climate change and link a better understanding to action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

2015-04-05

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

PROVISIONING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY USING GULF OF MEXICO BROWN SHRIMP, FARFANTEPENAEUS AZTECUS

EPA Science Inventory

Brown shrimp are commercially important shellfish that support one of the largest fisheries in the southeastern United States, contributing to a shrimp harvest revenue that can exceed $100 million per year. Therefore, understanding how climate-driven changes in habitat availabil...

Local Communities and Schools Tackling Sustainability and Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flowers, Rick; Chodkiewicz, Andrew

2009-01-01

Local communities and their schools remain key sites for actions tackling issues of sustainability and climate change. A government-funded environmental education initiative, the Australian Sustainable Schools Initiative (AuSSI), working together with state based Sustainable Schools Programs (SSP), has the ability to support the development of…

Potential climate change impacts on tidal wetland plant and algal assemblages in the Pacific Northwest

EPA Science Inventory

Tidal wetlands along the coast of the Pacific Northwest provide wildlife habitat and support important ecosystem functions such as primary productivity. The future structure and function of these ecosystems may be altered by sea-level rise (SLR) or other climate change effects. W...

Extension Agents' Awareness of Climate Change in Ethiopia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abegaz, Dagmawi M.; Wims, Padraig

2015-01-01

Purpose: The fact that highly vulnerable countries like Ethiopia face far greater challenges from climate change makes agricultural adaptation a top priority. Even though the public agriculture extension system in Ethiopia plays a central role in facilitating and supporting adaptation, very limited information is available on how aware the actual…

Tidal wetland plant and algal assemblages in Oregon: spatial patterns of composition and vulnerability to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Tidal wetlands support important ecosystem functions along the coast of the Pacific Northwest such as primary production and nutrient transformation. Sea-level rise (SLR) and elevated salinity due to climate change may affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of plants a...

Distinguishing Complex Ideas about Climate Change: Knowledge Integration vs. Specific Guidance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vitale, Jonathan M.; McBride, Elizabeth; Linn, Marcia C.

2016-01-01

We compared two forms of automated guidance to support students' understanding of climate change in an online inquiry science unit. For "specific" guidance, we directly communicated ideas that were missing or misrepresented in student responses. For "knowledge integration" guidance, we provided hints or suggestions to motivate…

Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.

PubMed

Kröel-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus; De Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Estiarte, Marc; Garadnai, János; Kongstad, Jane; Kovács-Láng, Edit; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Liberati, Dario; Ogaya, Romà; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Smith, Andrew R; Sowerby, Alwyn; Tietema, Albert; Penuelas, Josep

2015-03-24

Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

PubMed

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana, G. L.; Piechota, T. C.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.

2009-12-01

The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision “to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders.” Six major strategies are proposed: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change and its effects at a regional and sub-regional scales to evaluate different future scenarios and strategies (Climate Modeling Component) 2) Develop data collection, modeling, and visualization infrastructure to determine and analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Develop data collection, modeling, and visualization infrastructure to better quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Develop data collection and modeling infrastructure to assess effects on human systems, responses to institutional and societal aspects, and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Develop educational infrastructure to train students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). As part of the new infrastructure, two observational transects will be established across Great Basin Ranges, one in southern Nevada in the Spring Mountains, and the second to be located in the Snake Range of eastern Nevada which will reach bristlecone pine stands. Climatic, hydrologic and ecological data from these transects will be downloaded into high capacity data storage units and made available to researchers through creation of the Nevada climate change portal. Our research will aim to answer two interdisciplinary science questions: 1) How will climate change affect water resources and linked ecosystem resources and human systems? And 2) How will climate change affect disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, insect outbreaks, droughts) and linked systems?

The Effects of Teacher Perceptions of Administrative Support, School Climate, and Academic Success in Urban Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Lakishia N.

2015-01-01

Teacher turnover refers to major changes in teachers' assignments from one school year to the next. Past research has given an overview of several factors of teacher turnover. These factors include the school environment, teacher collaborative efforts, administrative support, school climate, location, salary, classroom management, academic…

Engaging Students In The Science Of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhew, R. C.; Halversen, C.; Weiss, E.; Pedemonte, S.; Weirman, T.

2013-12-01

Climate change is arguably the defining environmental issue of our generation. It is thus increasingly necessary for every member of the global community to understand the basic underlying science of Earth's climate system and how it is changing in order to make informed, evidence-based decisions about how we will respond individually and as a society. Through exploration of the inextricable interconnection between Earth's ocean, atmosphere and climate, we believe students will be better prepared to tackle the complex issues surrounding the causes and effects of climate change and evaluate possible solutions. If students are also given opportunities to gather evidence from real data and use scientific argumentation to make evidence-based explanations about climate change, not only will they gain an increased understanding of the science concepts and science practices, the students will better comprehend the nature of climate change science. Engaging in argument from evidence is a scientific practice not only emphasized in the Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), but also emphasized in the Common Core State Standards for English Language Arts & Literacy in History/Social Studies and Science (CCSS). This significant overlap between NGSS and CCSS has implications for science and language arts classrooms, and should influence how we support and build students' expertise with this practice of sciences. The featured exemplary curricula supports middle school educators as they address climate change in their classrooms. The exemplar we will use is the NOAA-funded Ocean Sciences Sequence (OSS) for Grades 6-8: The ocean-atmosphere connection and climate change, which are curriculum units that deliver rich science content correlated to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Disciplinary Core Ideas and an emphasis on the Practices of Science, as called for in NGSS and the Framework. Designed in accordance with the latest research on learning this curriculum provides numerous opportunities for students to use real data to make evidence-based explanations. During the session, we will discuss ways in which students can use scientific data related to climate change as evidence in their construction of scientific arguments.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

Public division about climate change rooted in conflicting socio-political identities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliuc, Ana-Maria; McGarty, Craig; Thomas, Emma F.; Lala, Girish; Berndsen, Mariette; Misajon, Roseanne

2015-03-01

Of the climate science papers that take a position on the issue, 97% agree that climate change is caused by humans, but less than half of the US population shares this belief. This misalignment between scientific and public views has been attributed to a range of factors, including political attitudes, socio-economic status, moral values, levels of scientific understanding, and failure of scientific communication. The public is divided between climate change 'believers' (whose views align with those of the scientific community) and 'sceptics' (whose views are in disagreement with those of the scientific community). We propose that this division is best explained as a socio-political conflict between these opposing groups. Here we demonstrate that US believers and sceptics have distinct social identities, beliefs and emotional reactions that systematically predict their support for action to advance their respective positions. The key implication is that the divisions between sceptics and believers are unlikely to be overcome solely through communication and education strategies, and that interventions that increase angry opposition to action on climate change are especially problematic. Thus, strategies for building support for mitigation policies should go beyond attempts to improve the public’s understanding of science, to include approaches that transform intergroup relations.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

PubMed

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

PubMed Central

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

2014-12-01

To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, Jun; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter

2016-01-01

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

Making Climate Hot: Preparing Scientists and Teachers for Climate Change Communication and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buhr, S. M.; Wise, S. B.

2008-05-01

Anyone having anything to do with climate change science (or even geosciences) is increasingly asked to communicate about climate change with friends and family, media, the general public, and students. But, we have often not had the training to communicate with simplicity and clarity about such a complex topic. Furthermore, the need to know how to accommodate controversy, common misconceptions, and contrarian arguments complicates the task. The CIRES Education and Outreach group has developed a short professional development workshop "Making Climate Hot: How to Communicate Effectively about Climate Change". The goals of the workshop are to make scientists and educators aware of best practices in climate change communications, provide some tools for crafting messages, and allow participants to practice skills in a supportive, low-risk environment. The "Making Climate Hot" workshop has been piloted with scientists and university communicators, teachers and environmental educators and college students anxious to communicate with family and roommates. The most and least effective aspects of the workshop will be described, along with the lessons learned and next steps.

The Trajectories of Adolescents’ Perceptions of School Climate, Deviant Peer Affiliation, and Behavioral Problems During the Middle School Years

PubMed Central

Wang, Ming-Te; Dishion, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

This longitudinal study examined trajectories of change in adolescents’ perceptions of four dimensions of school climate (academic support, behavior management, teacher social support, peer social support) and the effects of such trajectories on adolescent problem behaviors. We also tested whether school climate moderated the associations between deviant peer affiliation and adolescent problem behaviors. The 1,030 participating adolescents from 8 schools were followed from 6th through 8th grades (54% female; 76% European American). Findings indicated that all the dimensions of school climate declined and behavioral problems and deviant peer affiliation increased. Declines in each of the dimensions were associated with increases in behavioral problems. The prediction of problem behavior from peer affiliation was moderated by adolescents’ perceptions of school climate. PMID:22822296

On the Edge: the Impact of Climate Change, Climate Extremes, and Climate-driven Disturbances on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; McDowell, N. G.; Tidwell, V. C.; Xu, C.; Solander, K.; Jonko, A. K.; Wilson, C. J.; Middleton, R. S.

2016-12-01

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is a critical watershed in terms of vulnerability to climate change and supporting the food-energy-water nexus. Climate-driven disturbances in the CRB—including wildfire, drought, and pests—threaten the watershed's ability to reliably support a wide array of ecosystem services while meeting the interrelated demands of the food-energy-water nexus. Our work illustrates future changes for upper Colorado River headwater basins using the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model driven by downscaled CMIP5 global climate data coupled with pseudo-dynamic vegetation shifts associated with changing fire and drought conditions. We examine future simulated streamflow within the context of an operational model framework to consider the impacts on water operators and managers who rely upon the timely and continual delivery of streamflow. We focus on results for a large case study basin within the CRB—the San Juan River—showing future scenarios where this ecosystem is pushed towards the extremes. Our findings illustrate that landscape change in the CRB cause delayed snowmelt and increased evapotranspiration from shrublands, which leads to increases in the frequency and magnitude of both droughts and floods within disturbed systems. By 2080, coupled climate and landscape change produces a dramatically altered hydrograph resulting in larger peak flows, reduced lower flows, and lower overall streamflow. Operationally, this results in increased future water delivery challenges and lower reservoir storages driven by changes in the headwater basins. Ultimately, our work shows that the already-stressed CRB ecosystem could, in the future, be pushed over a tipping point, significantly impacting the basin's ability to reliably supply water for food, energy, and urban uses.

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

2017-08-01

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

2011-12-01

The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulledge, J. M.

2011-12-01

The science of climate change has convincingly demonstrated that human activities, including the release of greenhouse gases, land-surface changes, particle emissions, and redistribution of water, are changing global and regional climates. Consequently, key institutions are now concerned about the potential social impacts of climate change. For example, the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report from the U.S. Department of Defense states that "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." Meanwhile, insured losses from climate and weather-related natural disasters have risen dramatically over the past thirty years. Although these losses stem largely from socioeconomic trends, insurers are concerned that climate change could exacerbate this trend and render certain types of climate risk non-diversifiable. Meanwhile, the climate science community-broadly defined as physical, biological, and social scientists focused on some aspect of climate change-remains largely focused scholarly activities that are valued in the academy but not especially useful to decision makers. On the other hand, climate scientists who engage in policy discussions have generally permitted vested interests who support or oppose climate policies to frame the discussion of climate science within the policy arena. Such discussions focus on whether scientific uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to justify policy and the vested interests overstate or understate key uncertainties to support their own agendas. Consequently, the scientific community has become absorbed defending scientific findings to the near exclusion of developing novel tools to aid in risk-based decision-making. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established expressly for the purpose of informing governments, has largely been engaged in attempts to reduce unavoidable uncertainties rather than helping the world's governments define a science-based risk-management framework for climate security. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that "Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk." In risk management, key uncertainties guide action aimed at reducing risk and cannot be ignored or used to justify inaction. Security policies such as arms control and counter-terrorism demonstrate that high-impact outcomes matter to decision makers even if they are likely to be rare events. In spite of this fact, the long tail on the probability distribution of climate sensitivity was largely ignored by the climate science community until recently and its implications for decision making are still not receiving adequate attention. Informing risk management requires scientists to shift from a singular aversion to type I statistical error (i.e. false positive) to a balanced presentation of both type I error and type II error (i.e. false negative) when the latter may have serious consequences. Examples from national security, extreme weather, and economics illustrate these concepts.

Arctic cities and climate change: climate-induced changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Streletskiy, Dmitry; Swales, Timothy

2014-05-01

Planned socio-economic development during the Soviet period promoted migration into the Arctic and work force consolidation in urbanized settlements to support mineral resources extraction and transportation industries. These policies have resulted in very high level of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic population remains predominantly urban. In five Russian Administrative regions underlined by permafrost and bordering the Arctic Ocean 66 to 82% (depending on region) of the total population is living in Soviet-era urban communities. The political, economic and demographic changes in the Russian Arctic over the last 20 years are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. The majority of structures in the Russian Arctic are built according to the passive principle, which promotes equilibrium between the permafrost thermal regime and infrastructure foundations. This presentation is focused on quantitative assessment of potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to ongoing and future climatic changes using permafrost - geotechnical model forced by GCM-projected climate. To address the uncertainties in GCM projections we have utilized results from 6 models participated in most recent IPCC model inter-comparison project. The analysis was conducted for entire extent of Russian permafrost-affected area and on several representative urban communities. Our results demonstrate that significant observed reduction in urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian Arctic can be attributed to climatic changes and that projected future climatic changes will further negatively affect communities on permafrost. However, the uncertainties in magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of projected climate change produced by individual GCMs translate to substantial variability of the future state of infrastructure built on permafrost.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Climate Observations from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Stephen

2016-07-01

The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO): Science at Your Fingertips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, L. N.; Treasure, E.; Moore Myers, J.; McNulty, S.

2012-12-01

There is an ever-increasing volume of useful scientific knowledge about climate change effects and management options for natural ecosystems. Agencies such as the USDA Forest Service have been charged with the need to evaluate this body of knowledge and if necessary adapt to the impacts of climate change in their forest planning and management. However, the combined volume of existing information and rate of development of new information, lack of climate change specialists, and limited technology transfer mechanisms make efficient access and use difficult. The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) addresses this difficulty through its publically accessible web-based tool that puts current and concise climate change science at the fingertips of forest planners and managers. A collaborative product of the USDA Forest Service Research Stations and the National Forest System, TACCIMO integrates peer-reviewed research with management and planning options through search and reporting tools that connect land managers with information they can trust. TACCIMO highlights elements from the wealth of climate change science with attention to what natural resource planners and managers need through a searchable repository of over 4,000 effects of climate change and close to 1,000 adaptive management options, all excerpted from a growing body of peer-reviewed scientific literature. A geospatial mapping application provides downscaled climate data for the nation and other spatially explicit models relevant to evaluating climate change impacts on forests. Report generators assist users in capturing outputs specific to a given location and resource area in a consistent and organized manner. For USDA Forest Service users, science findings can be readily linked with management conditions and capabilities from national forest management plans. The development of TACCIMO was guided by interactions with natural resource professionals, resulting in a flexible framework that allows new information to be added routinely and existing information to be reorganized as new science emerges and management needs change. TACCIMO is currently being used to support climate change science assessments for national forest land and management plan revisions in El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico, the Southern Sierra national forests in California, and Francis Marion National Forest in South Carolina. The tool is also being actively used by state, extension, and private natural resource professionals for climate change education and outreach. For all users, TACCIMO provides a fast, concise, and creditable starting point to guide critical thinking, additional analysis, and expert consultation to support all aspects of natural resource management decision making.

Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2006-01-01

Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

Farmers perceptions on climate change in lowland and highland vegetable production centers of South Sulawesi, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adiyoga, W.

2018-02-01

A survey was carried out in South Sulawesi, Indonesia interviewing 220 vegetable farmers. It was aimed at examining the vegetable farmers’ perception of climate change and assessing the consistency of farmers’ perception with available time series meteorological data. Results suggest that meteorological data analysis is in agreement with farmers’ perception regarding faster start, longer ending, and longer duration of rainy season. Further data analysis supports the claim of most farmers who perceive the occurrence of increasing air temperature, changing or shifting of the hottest and coldest month. Most respondents also suggest that climate change has affected vegetable farm yield and profitability. Other respondents even predict that climate change may affect the quality of life of their future descendants. Meanwhile, significant number of farmers is quite optimistic that they can cope with climate change problems through adaptation strategy. However, the attitude of farmers towards climate change is mostly negative as compared to positive or neutral feeling. Informative and educational campaign should be continuously carried out to encourage farmers in developing positive attitude or positive thinking towards climate change. Positive attitude may eventually lead to constructive behavior in selecting and implementing adaptation options.

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Supporting tribal agriculture and natural resources in a changing climate working group

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created in 2014 to deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Our stakeholders include agricultural and natural resource managers (i.e. farmers, ranchers, forest land mana...

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.

PubMed

Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger

2017-05-15

Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network Connectedness, Sense of Community, and Risk Perception of Climate Change Professionals in the Pacific Islands Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corlew, L. K.; Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

2013-12-01

The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Program conducted social network analysis research of climate change professionals (broadly defined) who are from or work in Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region. This study is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) to address an identified need for a resource that quantifies the region's collaborative network of climate change professionals, and that supports the further development of cross-regional and inter-sectoral collaborations for future research and adaptation activities. A survey was distributed to nearly 1,200 people who are from and/or work in climate change related fields in the region. The Part One Survey questions (not confidential) created a preferential attachment network by listing major players in Hawaii and the USAPI, with additional open fields to identify important contacts in the greater professional network. Participants (n=340) identified 975 network contacts and frequency of communications (weekly, monthly, seasonally, yearly, at least once ever). Part Two Survey questions (confidential, n=302) explored climate change risk perceptions, Psychological Sense of Community (PSOC), sense of control over climate change impacts, sense of responsibility to act, policy beliefs and preferences regarding climate change actions, concern and optimism scales about specific impacts, and demographic information. Graphical representations of the professional network are being developed for release in September 2013 as a free online tool to promote and assist collaboration building among climate professionals in the region. The graphs are partitioned according to network 'hubs' (high centrality), participant location, and profession to clearly identify network strengths and opportunities for future collaborations across spatial and professional boundaries. For additional analyses, scores are assigned for participant degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and Eigenvector centrality from the Part One Survey, as well as PSOC, control, responsibility, risk perceptions, concern, optimism, and policy preferences from the Part Two Survey. Statistical interaction analyses explore factors motivating connectedness within the network, as well as climate change research and adaptation needs and priorities of participants.

Crossing the river: Developing a strategy to support understanding of uncertainty within probabilistic climate projections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walton, P.; Lamb, R.

2010-09-01

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established by government in 1997 to support the UK's engagement with becoming better adapted to a changing climate. As the lead organisation in the UK on climate change adaptation, UKCIP oversaw the development of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) which were launched in June 2009 providing, for the first time, probabilistic climate projections for the UK. As with previous generations of UKCIP climate scenarios, they were freely accessible and intended for a whole spectrum of users, from technical experts to a lay audience. . Prior to the launch of UKCP09 it was acknowledged that users would need support in understanding key concepts, such as the uncertainty inherent in the projections, to be able to use them appropriately. The user support strategy was therefore developed. It is founded on robust pedagogical principles and draws on the latest thinking on public understanding of science (PUS) that places the user at the centre of the communication process. The adopted approach first identifies profiles of the key users of the climate projections and the ways in which they would use and access the data. Based on these profiles it is possible to identify a range of mechanisms that allow the user to engage with understanding the projections in different ways and situations including lectures, workshops and online learning. Within this blended strategy an exercise was developed specifically to support users' understanding of the concept of uncertainty within the probabilistic climate projections. The ‘Crossing the River' exercise encourages the participants to actively consider the nature of information they are using, and how it could be applied in a specific decision. Reflection and discussion are key elements in supporting the users' understanding of the concept and allowing them to apply the principles in the exercise to their own context. Their reflection is facilitated through a range of mechanisms that provide social and personal spaces and is guided by the communicator. The exercise has been used successfully with a broad range of users (from government officers to environmental managers) in groups ranging from small community events to large corporate conferences. Feedback has shown that the majority of people who completed the exercise had a better understanding of the concept of uncertainty within the probabilistic climate projections as a result. We are now working to create an online version that can be freely accessed by users along with other resources that develop understanding of other key concepts associated with UKCP09 and the broader climate change adaptation agenda. This paper evaluates the development and application of the user support strategy and provides a practical illustration of how it can be used within a face-to-face group setting and also as an online resource.

Plant communities on infertile soils are less sensitive to climate change.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen; Fernandez-Going, Barbara; Eskelinen, Anu; Copeland, Stella

2015-11-01

Much evidence suggests that plant communities on infertile soils are relatively insensitive to increased water deficit caused by increasing temperature and/or decreasing precipitation. However, a multi-decadal study of community change in the western USA does not support this conclusion. This paper tests explanations related to macroclimatic differences, overstorey effects on microclimate, variation in soil texture and plant functional traits. A re-analysis was undertaken of the changes in the multi-decadal study, which concerned forest understorey communities on infertile (serpentine) and fertile soils in an aridifying climate (southern Oregan) from 1949-1951 to 2007-2008. Macroclimatic variables, overstorey cover and soil texture were used as new covariates. As an alternative measure of climate-related change, the community mean value of specific leaf area was used, a functional trait measuring drought tolerance. We investigated whether these revised analyses supported the prediction of lesser sensitivity to climate change in understorey communities on infertile serpentine soils. Overstorey cover, but not macroclimate or soil texture, was a significant covariate of community change over time. It strongly buffered understorey temperatures, was correlated with less change and averaged >50 % lower on serpentine soils, thereby counteracting the lower climate sensitivity of understorey herbs on these soils. Community mean specific leaf area showed the predicted pattern of less change over time in serpentine than non-serpentine communities. Based on the current balance of evidence, plant communities on infertile serpentine soils are less sensitive to changes in the climatic water balance than communities on more fertile soils. However, this advantage may in some cases be lessened by their sparser overstorey cover. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate Change and Agriculture in the U.S.: Effects and Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Rippey, B.; Walthall, C. L.; Hatfield, J.; Backlund, P. W.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in the United States has followed a path of continual adaptation to a wide range of factors throughout its history. However, observational evidence, supported by an understanding of the physical climate system, shows that human-induced climate change is underway in the U.S. and even now causing changes for which there is no historical reference for producers. Temperatures have increased and precipitation patterns have changed; the incidence, frequency, and extent of pest infestations have been altered, as well as the natural resource base (water, air, and soils) upon which production depends. Each factor challenges agricultural management as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases rise. These trends are likely to continue over the next century. Importantly, a gap exists between U.S. agricultural producers and managers' needs related to climate-driven problems and the information that research currently offers them. In the past, agricultural research into climate change effects has largely focused on mean values of precipitation and temperature. Today's management requirements, however, often demand immediate response on shorter time scales to address abrupt, often novel needs. Further complicating this reality, future decisions will likely require even greater emphasis on managing under increasing levels of uncertainty, and planning for and adjusting to the extremes. Research is moving to better address these emerging issues for the relevant timescales and parameters in order to allow the formulation of improved and resilient management strategies that apply to a future in which past experience has become less applicable. A climate-ready U.S. agricultural system requires easy access to useable climate knowledge and technical resources, improved climate risk management strategies, new processes to support effective adaptive actions, and the development of sustainable production systems resilient to climate effects. Mainstreaming climate knowledge improves adaptive capacity of the agricultural system by ensuring that land managers, technical advisors, researchers, private businesspeople, government program managers, and policymakers are aware of current and projected climate impacts and can access best management practices to reduce risks and capture opportunities.

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interactive training improves workplace climate, knowledge, and support towards domestic violence.

PubMed

Glass, Nancy; Hanson, Ginger C; Laharnar, Naima; Anger, W Kent; Perrin, Nancy

2016-07-01

As Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) affects the workplace, a supportive workplace climate is important. The study evaluated the effectiveness of an "IPV and the Workplace" training on workplace climate towards IPV. IPV training was provided to 14 intervention counties and 13 control counties (receiving training 6 months delayed). Measures included workplace climate surveys, IPV knowledge test, and workplace observations. (i) Training significantly improved supervisor knowledge on IPV and received positive evaluations, (ii) training improved workplace climate towards IPV significantly which was maintained over time, and (iii) after the training, supervisors provided more IPV information to employees and more IPV postings were available in the workplace. The study provides evidence to support on-site interactive, computer based training as a means for improved workplace safety. IPV and the Workplace training effectively increased knowledge and positively changed workplace climate. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:538-548, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The null hypothesis: steady rates of erosion, weathering and sediment accumulation during Late Cenozoic mountain uplift and glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willenbring, J. K.; Jerolmack, D. J.

2015-12-01

At the largest time and space scales, the pace of erosion and chemical weathering is determined by tectonic uplift rates. Deviations from this equilibrium condition arise from the transient response of landscape denudation to climatic and tectonic perturbations, and may be long lived. We posit that the constraint of mass balance, however, makes it unlikely that such disequilibrium persists at the global scale over millions of years, as has been proposed for late Cenozoic erosion. To support this contention, we synthesize existing data for weathering fluxes, global sedimentation rates, sediment yields and tectonic motions. The records show a remarkable constancy in the pace of Earth-surface evolution over the last 10 million years. These findings provide strong support for the null hypothesis; that global rates of landscape change have remained constant over the last ten million years, despite global climate change and massive mountain building events. Two important implications are: (1) global climate change may not change global denudation rates, because the nature and sign of landscape responses are varied; and (2) tectonic and climatic perturbations are accommodated in the long term by changes in landscape form. This work undermines the hypothesis that increased weathering due to late Cenozoic mountain building or climate change was the primary agent for a decrease in global temperatures.

The future of climate change policy by provincial government in Indonesia: A study on the vision and mission of elected governors in 2017 election

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniawan, T.

2018-03-01

The IPCC in 2015 has recognized the critical role of local governments in scaling up the adaptation of communities to climate change. The role will be executed properly if the leaders have an awareness of climate change as a strategic agenda in his administration. In the context of Indonesia, the vision and mission of a regional head can be a clue as to how he supports efforts in tackling climate change. The five-year regional development plan is an elaboration of the development agendas offered by a regional head in his vision and mission. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the future of climate change policy in some provincial governments based on the vision and mission of the elected governors. To achieve the goal, the author employs a qualitative approach to analyze the contents of the vision and mission and their preference to climate change. The results of the study indicate that the elected governors are still not very aware of climate change and did not specify it in their vision and mission. Therefore, in the preparation of five-year regional development plan, it is necessary for some stakeholders to address and specifically mention the issues of climate change.

Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, Paul G.; Hornsey, Matthew J.; Bongiorno, Renata; Jeffries, Carla

2012-08-01

A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of `conversion' using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N=155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (N=347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers' pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.

"Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis

2017-04-01

In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

PubMed

Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

2010-01-01

Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

2016-08-11

Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

75 FR 62313 - Establishing the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-08

... impact from storms and climate change, sustain safe seafood and clean water, provide recreational and... disasters, support robust economies, and assist in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change... percent of the Nation's offshore oil and gas is produced in the Gulf, and it is where nearly one-third of...

A Framework for Categorizing the Relative Vulnerability of Threatened and Endangered Species to Climate Change (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

NCEA/ORD has developed an evaluative framework that may be used to categorize the relative vulnerability of species to climate change. This framework is intended to provide information to ecosystem and resource managers to support their decision making about management actions th...

77 FR 47433 - Presquile National Wildlife Refuge, Chesterfield County, VA; Comprehensive Conservation Plan and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-08

... 120 school-aged students each year and a 3-day deer hunt each fall. Background The CCP Process The... respond to potential impacts of climate change on existing refuge habitats? How will the refuge improve..., monitor for climate change impacts, distribute refuge revenue sharing payments, support research on the...

Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of global climate change on crop productivity have drawn much attention in recent years. To investigate these impacts on grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Möench] productivity, we calibrated the CERES-Sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT...

Basin-Wide Assessment on Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong Basin

EPA Science Inventory

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) covers parts of riparian countries of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, Cambodia and Thailand and supports over 60 million people for food and livelihood. Recently, the LMB is threatened by climate change. This paper aims to quantify water yields and sediment retent...

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change alters the structure and functions of ecological systems and as a result can modify their provision of ecosystem services. Some American communities have already experienced economic hardship due to spatial shifts in fish biomass caused by warming ocean waters. Documented reductions i...

Geographic information systems applications for climate change decision-making : Peer exchange summary report, Atlanta, Georgia, September 26-27, 2011

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-30

On September 26-27, 2011, the FHWA's Office of Planning sponsored a 1.5 day peer exchange focusing on the use of GIS to support transportation related climate change decisions. This report provides overviews of the presentations given at the peer exc...

GLIMPSE: A decision support tool for simultaneously achieving our air quality management and climate change mitigation goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinder, R. W.; Akhtar, F.; Loughlin, D. H.; Henze, D. K.; Bowman, K. W.

2012-12-01

Poor air quality, ecosystem damages, and climate change all are caused by the combustion of fossil fuels, yet environmental management often addresses each of these challenges separately. This can lead to sub-optimal strategies and unintended consequences. Here we present GLIMPSE -- a decision support tool for simultaneously achieving our air quality and climate change mitigation goals. GLIMPSE comprises of two types of models, (i) the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, to calculate the relationship between emissions and impacts at high spatial resolution, and (ii) the MARKAL energy system model, to calculate the relationship between energy technologies and emissions. This presentation will demonstrate how GLIMPSE can be used to explore energy scenarios to better achieve both improved air quality and mitigate climate change. Second, this presentation will discuss how space-based observations can be incorporated into GLIMPSE to improve decision-making. NASA satellite products, namely ozone radiative forcing from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), are used to extend GLIMPSE to include the impact of emissions on ozone radiative forcing. This provides a much needed observational constraint on ozone radiative forcing.

Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.

PubMed

Grossman, Elena; Hathaway, Michelle; Bush, Kathleen F; Cahillane, Matthew; English, Dorette Q; Holmes, Tisha; Moran, Colleen E; Uejio, Christopher K; York, Emily A; Dorevitch, Samuel

2018-06-20

Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives. To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered. Cross-sectional survey and discussion. State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience. The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs. Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support. Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) - Enabling Collective Impact on Climate and Energy Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Niepold, F., III

2015-12-01

Numerous climate change education efforts exist that aim to enable citizens and society to make informed decisions addressing environmental and societal issues arising from climate change. To extend the reach and impact of these efforts, it is necessary to coordinate them in order to reach a greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network, as an example of a rudimentary form of such an organization, engages in continuous communication through weekly teleconferences, an active listserv and other activities to share resources, activities, and ideas that is moving the network to develop common understandings that will likely lead to the development of effective collective impact on increasing climate and energy literacy. A Spring 2013 survey of the CLEAN Network provided insight as to how the CLEAN Network was addressing member needs and identified what other support was needed to increase its collective impact. In addition, community discussions identified the components needed for an effective overarching backbone support organization. A Fall 2015 survey of the CLEAN Network and the broader climate change education community is being conducted to examine 1) how the CLEAN Network make up and needs have evolved and how they compare to the broader community, and 2) to gather further input into the shaping of the elements of collective impact on climate and energy literacy. This presentation will describe the results from the 2015 survey and compare them to the 2013 survey and the community discussions. This will include describing the CLEAN Network's evolving professional make up, engagement of its members network activities, the importance of the network to members; how the findings compare with the broader climate change education community, and how the collective impact can be increased.

Dynamic Undergraduate Climate Change Affinity Program: University of Delaware Climate Program for Undergraduates (CPUG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrill, J.

2017-12-01

Multidisciplinary undergraduate climate change education is critical for students entering any sector of the workforce. The University of Delaware has developed a new interdisciplinary affinity program—UD Climate Program for Undergraduates (CPUG)—open to undergraduate students of all majors to provide a comprehensive educational experience designed to educate skilled climate change problem-solvers for a wide range of professional careers. The program is designed to fulfill all General Education requirements, and includes a residential community commitment and experiential learning in community outreach and problem solving. Seminars will introduce current popular press and research materials and provide practice in confirming source credibility, communications training, and psychological support, as well as team building. As undergraduates, members of the UD CPUG team will define, describe, and develop a solution or solutions for a pressing local climate challenge that has the potential for global impact. The choice of a challenge and approach to addressing it will be guided by the student's advisor. Students are expected to develop a practical, multidisciplinary solution to address the challenge as defined, using their educational and experiential training. Solutions will be presented to the UD community during the spring semester of their senior year, as a collaborative team solution, with enhancement through individual portfolios from each team member. The logic model, structure, curricular and co-curricular supports for the CPUG will be provided. Mechanisms of support available through University administration will also be discussed.

Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Morris, George Paterson; Reis, Stefan; Beck, Sheila Anne; Fleming, Lora Elderkin; Adger, William Neil; Benton, Timothy Guy; Depledge, Michael Harold

2017-12-05

The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.

Overview of the Implementation of the Climate Data Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Goodman, H. M.; Privette, A. P.

2014-12-01

One of the efforts described in the President's Climate Action Plan is the Climate Data Initiative, a broad effort to leverage the federal government's extensive, freely-available climate-relevant data resources data to spur innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in order to advance awareness of and preparedness for the impacts of climate change. The Climate Data Initiative, launched in March 2014, leverages commitments from government and the private sector to unleash data and make it accessible in ways that can be used by communities and companies to prepare for climate change. It builds on the White House's other Open Data Initiatives—in areas such as health, education, and safety. The Climate Data Initiative unleashes federal data relevant to addressing climate-related risks and vulnerabilities through the Climate.Data.gov web site. This talk will describe the Climate Data Initiative and its support and interactions with the Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.;

Climate change and animal health in Africa.

PubMed

Van den Bossche, P; Coetzer, J A W

2008-08-01

Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect impacts on African livestock. Direct impacts include increased ambient temperature, floods and droughts. Indirect impacts are the result of reduced availability of water and forage and changes in the environment that promote the spread of contagious diseases through increased contact between animals, or increased survival or availability of the agent or its intermediate host. The distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases may be the most significant effect of climate change. The potential vulnerability of the livestock industry will depend on its ability to adapt to such changes. Enhancing this adaptive capacity presents a practical way of coping with climate change. Adaptive capacity could be increased by enabling the African livestock owner to cope better with animal health problems through appropriate policy measures and institutional support. Developing an effective and sustainable animal health service, associated surveillance and emergency preparedness systems and sustainable disease control and prevention programmes is perhaps the most important strategy for dealing with climate change in many African countries.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Cool Science: Using Children's Art to Communicate Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

2013-12-01

Cool Science is a K-12 Climate Change Science Art Competition. Working with teachers, parents, and students, the project aims to identify outstanding works of art by students about climate change and display the art throughout public mass transit. Cool Science has three distinct goals: 1) provide a convenient means for art and science teachers to incorporate climate change into their curriculum, 2) support teacher/student learning about climate change science, and 3) foster informal learning about climate change among people riding mass transit. By efficiently connecting formal and informal learning with one project, Cool Science is an innovative project that expands the way we engage and evaluate students. Using children's artwork to communicate complex scientific issues such as climate change is a powerful learning experience for the artist, teacher, and audience. Last year, Cool Science received nearly 600 entries from students representing 36 teachers from 32 school districts. Six winning entries went on public display with one highlighted each month from January through June. In addition, there were 6 Runner Ups and 12 Honorable Mentions. For the winning students, it is an unforgettable experience to see a nine-foot version of their artwork traveling around the streets on the side of a bus!

China's capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Cameron, Scott; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Bi, Peng

2018-06-01

Infectious diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in China. The capacity of hospitals to deal with the challenge from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change is of great importance to population health. This study aimed to explore the capacity of hospitals in China to deal with such challenges. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was utilized to gauge information regarding capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change among 611 clinical professionals whose roles pertained to infectious disease diagnosis, treatment and management in Anhui Province of China. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed on the data. More than 90% of participants believed climate change would have an adverse influence on population health and infectious disease control in China. Most indicated that their hospitals were well prepared for emerging infectious diseases at present, and they considered that logistical support in hospitals (e.g. administrative and maintenance services) should be strengthened for future capacity building. The majority of participants suggested that effective prevention and control measures, more interdisciplinary collaborations, more funding in rural areas for health care, and improved access to facilities enabling online reporting of infectious diseases, were extremely important strategies in building capacity to curb the population health impact of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change in China. Clinical professionals recognized that climate change will likely increase the transmission of infectious diseases. Although rural health care and hospitals' logistical support need to be improved, most professionals believed their hospitals to be capable of dealing with emerging diseases. They thought that interdisciplinary and cross-regional collaborations, together with necessary resource support (e.g. improved facilities for rural health care) would be important control strategies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

PubMed

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

Treesearch

Kenneth L. Cole; Kirsten Ironside; Jon Eischeid; Gregg Garfin; Phillip B. Duffy; Chris Toney

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ~11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the...

ClimatePipes: User-Friendly Data Access, Manipulation, Analysis & Visualization of Community Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, A.; DeMarle, D.; Burnett, B.; Harris, C.; Silva, W.; Osmari, D.; Geveci, B.; Silva, C.; Doutriaux, C.; Williams, D. N.

2013-12-01

The impact of climate change will resonate through a broad range of fields including public health, infrastructure, water resources, and many others. Long-term coordinated planning, funding, and action are required for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Unfortunately, widespread use of climate data (simulated and observed) in non-climate science communities is impeded by factors such as large data size, lack of adequate metadata, poor documentation, and lack of sufficient computational and visualization resources. We present ClimatePipes to address many of these challenges by creating an open source platform that provides state-of-the-art, user-friendly data access, analysis, and visualization for climate and other relevant geospatial datasets, making the climate data available to non-researchers, decision-makers, and other stakeholders. The overarching goals of ClimatePipes are: - Enable users to explore real-world questions related to climate change. - Provide tools for data access, analysis, and visualization. - Facilitate collaboration by enabling users to share datasets, workflows, and visualization. ClimatePipes uses a web-based application platform for its widespread support on mainstream operating systems, ease-of-use, and inherent collaboration support. The front-end of ClimatePipes uses HTML5 (WebGL, Canvas2D, CSS3) to deliver state-of-the-art visualization and to provide a best-in-class user experience. The back-end of the ClimatePipes is built around Python using the Visualization Toolkit (VTK, http://vtk.org), Climate Data Analysis Tools (CDAT, http://uv-cdat.llnl.gov), and other climate and geospatial data processing tools such as GDAL and PROJ4. ClimatePipes web-interface to query and access data from remote sources (such as ESGF). Shown in the figure is climate data layer from ESGF on top of map data layer from OpenStreetMap. The ClimatePipes workflow editor provides flexibility and fine grained control, and uses the VisTrails (http://www.vistrails.org) workflow engine in the backend.

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.

2015-12-01

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). The CVP Program currently supports multiple projects in areas that are aimed at improved representation of physical processes in global models. Some of the topics that are currently funded include: i) Improved Understanding of Intraseasonal Tropical Variability - DYNAMO field campaign and post -field projects, and the new climate model improvement teams focused on MJO processes; ii) Climate Process Teams (CPTs, co-funded with NSF) with projects focused on Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to aerosol indirect effects, and Internal-Wave Driven Mixing in Global Ocean Models; iii) Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology; iv) Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Mechanism and Predictability;v) AMOC Mechanisms and Decadal Predictability Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized. Additional information can be found at http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP.

Impacts of weighting climate models for hydro-meteorological climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Caya, Daniel

2017-06-01

Weighting climate models is controversial in climate change impact studies using an ensemble of climate simulations from different climate models. In climate science, there is a general consensus that all climate models should be considered as having equal performance or in other words that all projections are equiprobable. On the other hand, in the impacts and adaptation community, many believe that climate models should be weighted based on their ability to better represent various metrics over a reference period. The debate appears to be partly philosophical in nature as few studies have investigated the impact of using weights in projecting future climate changes. The present study focuses on the impact of assigning weights to climate models for hydrological climate change studies. Five methods are used to determine weights on an ensemble of 28 global climate models (GCMs) adapted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Using a hydrological model, streamflows are computed over a reference (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods, with and without post-processing climate model outputs. The impacts of using different weighting schemes for GCM simulations are then analyzed in terms of ensemble mean and uncertainty. The results show that weighting GCMs has a limited impact on both projected future climate in term of precipitation and temperature changes and hydrology in terms of nine different streamflow criteria. These results apply to both raw and post-processed GCM model outputs, thus supporting the view that climate models should be considered equiprobable.

Preventing disasters: public health vulnerability reduction as a sustainable adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Keim, Mark E

2011-06-01

Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters, but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate, we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate, we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters, we can lessen--and at times even prevent--their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social, economic, health, and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level, it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level, a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and, as a result, the overall risk of climate-related disasters.

Let the Games Begin: New Opportunities to Address Climate Change Communication, Education, and Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Jones, A.; Johnston, E.; Rath, K.; Nease, J.

2014-12-01

A rapid transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient society is not only possible, but could also bring many co-benefits for public health, economic wellbeing, social equity, and more. The science supporting an urgent need for such a transition has never been clearer. Yet, social science data are also clear: the public in the US (and many other similar developed economies) does not, on average, share this sense of urgency, nor have policymakers shown a willingness to put scientific evidence above the perceptions of their constituents. The gulf between scientific and public understanding of climate change has spurred research on climate change communication, learning, and decision-making, identifying barriers such as misconceptions and faulty mental models of the climate and energy systems; poor understanding of complex, dynamic systems generally; and affective and social barriers to learning and action. There is also a growing opportunity to address these barriers, through tools that rely on active learning, that are social, engaging (and even fun), and that are grounded in rigorous science. An increasing number of decision-support computer simulations are being developed, intended to make complex technical problems accessible to non-experts in an interactive format. At the same time, the use of scenario planning, role-playing games, and active learning approaches are gaining ground in policy and education spheres. Simulation-based role-playing games bring these approaches together and can provide powerful learning experiences: they offer the potential to compress time and reality; create experiences without requiring the 'real thing;' explore the consequences of our decisions that often unfold over decades; and open affective and social learning pathways. Here, we offer a perspective on the potential of these tools in climate change education, communication, and decision-support, and a brief demonstration of one tool we have developed, World Energy.

Capturing Data Connections within the Climate Data Initiative to Support Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandran, R.; Bugbee, K.; Weigel, A. M.; Tilmes, C.

2015-12-01

The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) focuses on preparing the United States for the impacts of climate change by leveraging existing federal climate-relevant data to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship supporting national climate-change preparedness. To achieve these goals, relevant data was curated around seven thematic areas relevant to climate change resiliency. Data for each theme was selected by subject matter experts from various Federal agencies and collected in Data.gov at http://climate.data.gov. While the curation effort for each theme has been immensely valuable on its own, in the end, the themes essentially become a long directory or a list. Establishing valuable connections between datasets and their intended use is lost. Therefore, the user understands that the datasets in the list have been approved by the CDI subject matter experts but has less certainty when making connections between the various datasets and their possible applications. Additionally, the intended use of the curated list is overwhelming and can be difficult to interpret. In order to better address the needs of the CDI data end users, the CDI team has been developing a new controlled vocabulary that will assist in capturing connections between datasets. This new vocabulary will be implemented in the Global Change Information System (GCIS), which has the capability to link individual items within the system. This presentation will highlight the methodology used to develop the controlled vocabulary that will aid end users in both understanding and locating relevant datasets for their intended use.

Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK.

PubMed

Paavola, Jouni

2017-12-05

This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. The evidence generated by the other articles of the special issue were interpreted using social justice reasoning in light of additional literature, to draw out the key implications of health and social inequalities for health outcomes of climate change. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts. In the future, climate change, aging population and decreasing public spending on health and social care may aggravate inequality of health outcomes related to climate change. Health education and public preparedness measures that take into account differential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of different groups help address health and social inequalities to do with climate change. Adaptation strategies based on individual preparedness, action and behaviour change may aggravate health and social inequalities due to their selective uptake, unless they are coupled with broad public information campaigns and financial support for undertaking adaptive measures.

Riding the Wave: Reconciling the Roles of Disease and Climate Change in Amphibian Declines

PubMed Central

Lips, Karen R; Diffendorfer, Jay; Mendelson, Joseph R; Sears, Michael W

2008-01-01

We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes. PMID:18366257

Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines.

PubMed

Lips, Karen R; Diffendorfer, Jay; Mendelson, Joseph R; Sears, Michael W

2008-03-25

We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.

Climate Change & Social Justice: Why We Should Care

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesbitt, Nathan T.

2015-03-01

In the past several years the global impacts brought about by climate change have become increasingly apparent through the advent of numerous natural disasters. In these events the social costs of climate change have materialized demonstrating high costs in lives, livelihoods, and equity. Due to geographic bad-luck many of the countries most affected by climate change are those that contributed least, a challenge that's exacerbated by a lack of robust infrastructure in these countries. Wealthy nations remain at risk themselves and incidents such as Hurricanes Sandy & Katrina have demonstrated that in times of crisis even institutions like the Red Cross will abandon the poor to their deaths. As necessary action on climate change would cost the fossil fuel industry 20 trillion, money in politics has stymied action. Recently, however, a groundswell grassroots movement (e.g. People's Climate March in NYC) and great strides in energy technology and policy have begun to create necessary change. Reports quantifying the impacts of climate change will be discussed, as well as an update on the current state of the global climate justice movement. The important contributions from scientists to this movement will be highlighted. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. (DGE-1258923).

An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.

2009-04-01

Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.

Enabling Responsible Energy Decisions: What People Know, Want to Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PytlikZillig, L. M.; Tomkins, A. J.; Harrington, J. A.

2012-12-01

As part of a broader regional effort focused on climate change education and rural communities, this paper focuses on a specific effort to understand effective approaches to two presumably complementary goals: The goal of increasing knowledge about climate change and climate science in a community, and the goal of having communities use climate change and climate science information when making decisions. In this paper, we explore the argument that people do not need or want to know about climate change, in order to make responsible and sustainable energy decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that involvement in making responsible and sustainable energy decisions will increase openness and readiness to process climate science information, and thus increase learning about climate change in subsequent exposures to such information. Support for these hypotheses would suggest that rather than encouraging education to enable action (including engagement in attempts to make responsible decisions), efforts should focus on encouraging actions first and education second. To investigate our hypotheses, we will analyze and report results from efforts to engage residents from a medium-sized Midwestern city to give input on future programs involving sustainable energy use. The engagement process (which will not be complete until after the AGU deadline) involves an online survey and an optional face-to-face discussion with city officials and experts in energy-related areas. The online survey includes brief information about current local energy programs, questions assessing knowledge of climate change, and an open-ended question asking what additional information residents need in order to make good decisions and recommendations concerning the energy programs. To examine support for our hypotheses, we will report (1) relationships between subjective and objective knowledge of climate science and willingness to attend the face-to-face discussion about the city's energy decisions and actual attendance at the event, (2) a content analysis of what residents say they want and need to know in order to make decisions and recommendations about the city's energy programs, and (3) pilot results from a comparison of learning from a reading about climate change presented prior to the event, after the event, or presented to those who were willing to attend the face-to-face event but did not attend. We will discuss the results in terms of their implications for the relationship between knowledge and behavior, versus change in knowledge and change in behavior.

Cities spearhead climate action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watts, Mark

2017-08-01

Following President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cities worldwide have pledged support to combat climate change. Along with a growing coalition of businesses and institutions, cities represent a beacon of hope for carbon reduction in politically tumultuous times.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

PubMed Central

Khaliq, Imran; Hof, Christian; Prinzinger, Roland; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Pfenninger, Markus

2014-01-01

The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. PMID:25009066

Public Inaccuracy in Meta-perceptions of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swim, J.; Fraser, J.

2012-12-01

Public perceptions of climate change and meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientist's perceptions of climate change were assessed to benchmark the National Network for Climate Change Interpretation's impacts. Meta-perceptions are important to examine because they can have implications for willingness to take action to address climate change. For instance, recent research suggests a tendency to misperceive that there is disagreement among climate scientists is predictive of lack of support for climate change policies. Underestimating public concern about climate change could also be problematic: it could lead individuals to withdraw from personal efforts to reduce impact and engage others in discussions about climate change. Presented results will demonstrate that respondents in a national survey underestimated the percent of the public who were very concerned, concerned or cautious about climate change and overestimated the extent others were disengaged, doubted, or non-believers. They underestimated the percent of the public who likely believed that humans caused climate change and overestimate the percent that believed climate change was not happening nor human induced. Finally, they underestimated the percent of the public that believed climate change threatened ocean health. The results also explore sources of misperceptions. First, correlates with TV viewing habits suggest that inaccuracy is a result of too little attention to network news, with one exception: Greater attention to FOX among doubters reduced accuracy. Second, adding to other evidence that basic cognitive heuristics (such as availability heuristic) influence perceptions of climate change, we show that that false consensus effects account for meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientists beliefs. The false consensus effect, in combination with underestimating concern among the public, results in those most concerned about climate change and those who believe it to be human caused to be more accurate in their meta-perceptions than their disbelieving counterparts. Yet, even this group underestimates the public's concern about climate change and the presence of the false consensus effect suggests that greater accuracy is not a result of greater knowledge about other's beliefs but rather a result of personal cognitive or motivational biases counteracting a general trend toward underestimating the general public's concern. We conclude that there is need to inform the public about wide-spread agreement that human caused climate change and its impacts on oceans is believed by the majority of the public and to increase the public's confidence in climate scientist agreement about the existence, causes, and impacts of climate change.; Perceptions and metaperceptions of concern about climate change

Divergence and diversification in North American Psoraleeae (Fabaceae) due to climate change

PubMed Central

Egan, Ashley N; Crandall, Keith A

2008-01-01

Background Past studies in the legume family (Fabaceae) have uncovered several evolutionary trends including differential mutation and diversification rates across varying taxonomic levels. The legume tribe Psoraleeae is shown herein to exemplify these trends at the generic and species levels. This group includes a sizable diversification within North America dated at approximately 6.3 million years ago with skewed species distribution to the most recently derived genus, Pediomelum, suggesting a diversification rate shift. We estimate divergence dates of North American (NAm) Psoraleeae using Bayesian MCMC sampling in BEAST based on eight DNA regions (ITS, waxy, matK, trnD-trnT, trnL-trnF, trnK, trnS-trnG, and rpoB-trnC). We also test the hypothesis of a diversification rate shift within NAm Psoraleeae using topological and temporal methods. We investigate the impact of climate change on diversification in this group by (1) testing the hypothesis that a shift from mesic to xeric habitats acted as a key innovation and (2) investigating diversification rate shifts along geologic time, discussing the impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on diversification. Results NAm Psoraleeae represents a recent, rapid radiation with several genera originating during the Pleistocene, 1 to 2 million years ago. A shift in diversification rate is supported by both methods with a 2.67-fold increase suggested around 2 million years ago followed by a 8.73-fold decrease 440,000 years ago. The hypothesis that a climate regime shift from mesic to xeric habitats drove increased diversification in affected taxa was not supported. Timing of the diversification rate increase supports the hypothesis that glaciation-induced climate changes during the Quaternary influenced diversification of the group. Nonrandom spatial diversification also exists, with greater species richness in the American Southwest. Conclusion This study outlines NAm Psoraleeae as a model example of a recent, rapid radiation. Diversification rate shifts in NAm Psoraleeae are not due to current climate regimes as represented by habitat, but instead to past global climate change resulting from Quaternary glaciations. NAm Psoraleeae diversification is a good example of how earthly dynamics including global climate change and topography work together to shape biodiversity. PMID:19091055

"It Takes a Network": Building National Capacity for Climate Change Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitzer, W.

2014-12-01

Since 2007, the New England Aquarium has led a national effort to increase the capacity of informal science venues to effectively communicate about climate change. We are now leading the NSF-funded National Network for Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation (NNOCCI), partnering with the Association of Zoos and Aquariums, FrameWorks Institute, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Monterey Bay Aquarium, and National Aquarium, with evaluation conducted by the New Knowledge Organization, Pennsylvania State University, and Ohio State University. More than 1,500 informal science venues (science centers, museums, aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks) are visited annually by 61% of the U.S. population. These visitors expect reliable information about environmental issues and solutions. NNOCCI enables teams of informal science interpreters across the country to serve as "communication strategists" - beyond merely conveying information they can influence public perceptions, given their high level of commitment, knowledge, public trust, social networks, and visitor contact. Beyond providing in-depth training, we have found that our "alumni network" is assuming an increasingly important role in achieving our goals: 1. Ongoing learning - Training must be ongoing given continuous advances in climate and social science research. 2. Implementation support - Social support is critical as interpreters move from learning to practice, given complex and potentially contentious subject matter. 3. Leadership development - We rely on a national cadre of interpretive leaders to conduct workshops, facilitate study circle trainings, and support alumni. 4. Coalition building - A peer network helps to build and maintain connections with colleagues, and supports further dissemination through the informal science community. We are experimenting with a variety of online and face to face strategies to support the growing alumni network. Our goals are to achieve a systemic national impact, embed our work within multiple ongoing regional and national climate change education networks, and leave an enduring legacy.

Slow Response or No Response? Distinguishing Non-Climatic Range Limits from Demographic Inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillerislambers, J.; Anderegg, L. D. L.; Breckheimer, I.; Ford, K.; Kroiss, S.

2016-12-01

One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how species distributions will respond to climate change. In general, species distributions have moved polewards and upslope with recent climate change (i.e. range shifts), supporting the assumption that range limits are climatically determined. However, studies also document a surprising number of species whose distributions have remained unchanged in the last 50-100 years, despite significant warming during that time period. This apparent lack of response to warming can arise for species whose range limits are determined by factors other than climate (e.g. species interactions) OR for long-lived, slow-growing, and/or dispersal-limited species whose range shifts are unable to keep pace with rapid climate change. Unfortunately, while these two possibilities are often difficult to distinguish, they have very different implications for the long-term viability of the species in question. Here, we use extensive demographic data for long-lived and slow-growing conifers collected across a large climatic gradient at Mount Rainier (WA, USA) to explore A) evidence for climatically determined range limits and B) the rate at which altitudinal distributions could shift in response to climate change in the region. In doing so, we highlight some of the complications we face in identifying whether species will be sensitive or resilient to climate change.

The effect of providing climate and health information on support for alternative electricity portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergi, Brian; Davis, Alex; Azevedo, Inês

2018-02-01

Support for addressing climate change and air pollution may depend on the type of information provided to the public. We conduct a discrete choice survey assessing preferences for combinations of electricity generation portfolios, electricity bills, and emissions reductions. We test how participants’ preferences change when emissions information is explicitly provided to them. We find that support for climate mitigation increases when mitigation is accompanied by improvements to air quality and human health. We estimate that an average respondent would accept an increase of 19%-27% in their electricity bill if shown information stating that either CO2 or SO2 emissions are reduced by 30%. Furthermore, an average respondent is willing to pay an increase of 30%-40% in electricity bills when shown information stating that both pollutants are reduced by 30% simultaneously. Our findings suggest that the type of emissions information provided to the public will affect their support for different electricity portfolios.

Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

2011-12-01

The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

Support for research towards understanding the population health vulnerabilities to vector-borne diseases: increasing resilience under climate change conditions in Africa.

PubMed

Ramirez, Bernadette

2017-12-12

Diseases transmitted to humans by vectors account for 17% of all infectious diseases and remain significant public health problems. Through the years, great strides have been taken towards combatting vector-borne diseases (VBDs), most notably through large scale and coordinated control programmes, which have contributed to the decline of the global mortality attributed to VBDs. However, with environmental changes, including climate change, the impact on VBDs is anticipated to be significant, in terms of VBD-related hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure. While there is growing awareness on the vulnerability of the African continent to VBDs in the context of climate change, there is still a paucity of research being undertaken in this area, and impeding the formulation of evidence-based health policy change. One way in which the gap in knowledge and evidence can be filled is for donor institutions to support research in this area. The collaboration between the WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) and the International Centre for Research and Development (IDRC) builds on more than 10 years of partnership in research capacity-building in the field of tropical diseases. From this partnership was born yet another research initiative on VBDs and the impact of climate change in the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa. This paper lists the projects supported under this research initiative and provides a brief on some of the policy and good practice recommendations emerging from the ongoing implementation of the research projects. Data generated from the research initiative are expected to be uptaken by stakeholders (including communities, policy makers, public health practitioners and other relevant partners) to contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of social, environmental and climate change on VBDs(i.e. the nature of the hazard, vulnerabilities, exposure), and improve the ability of African countries to adapt to and reduce the effects of these changes in ways that benefit their most vulnerable populations.

An Innovative Approach to Effective Climate Science Application through Stakeholder Participation in Great Plains Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Broska, J.

2015-12-01

For natural resource managers and other Great Plains stakeholders, climate uncertainties further confound decision-making on a highly altered landscape. Partner organizations comprising the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) acknowledge climate change as a high-priority threat to grasslands and associated habitats, affecting water availability, species composition, and other factors. Despite its importance, incorporation of climate change impacts into planning is hindered by high uncertainty and lack of translation to a tangible outcome: effects on species and their habitats. In 2014, the GPLCC initiated a Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) process to ultimately improve the size and connectivity of grasslands - informing land managers of the landscape-scale impacts of local decisions about where to restore, enhance, protect, and develop lands. Defining this goal helped stakeholders envision a tangible product. High resolution land cover data recently completed for Texas and Oklahoma represent current grassland locations. By focusing climate change models to project changes in these land cover datasets, resulting land cover projections can be directly incorporated into LCD-based models to focus restoration where future climates will support grasslands. Broad organizational cooperation has been critical for this USGS-led project, which uses downscaled climate data and other support from the South Central Climate Science Center Consortium and builds on existing work including LCD efforts of the Playa Lakes Joint Venture and the Bureau of Land Management's Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecological Assessment. Ongoing stakeholder guidance through an advisory team ensures effective application of a product that will be both relevant to and understood by decision makers, for whom the primary role of research is to reduce uncertainties and clear the path for more efficient decision-making in the face of climatic uncertainty.

Climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species and giant pandas in China's Qinling Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Viña, Andrés; Winkler, Julie A.; Li, Yu; Xu, Weihua; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Liu, Jianguo

2013-03-01

Climate change is threatening global ecosystems through its impact on the survival of individual species and their ecological functions. Despite the important role of understorey plants in forest ecosystems, climate impact assessments on understorey plants and their role in supporting wildlife habitat are scarce in the literature. Here we assess climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species with an emphasis on their ecological function as a food resource for endangered giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). An ensemble of bamboo distribution projections associated with multiple climate-change projections and bamboo dispersal scenarios indicates a substantial reduction in the distributional ranges of three dominant bamboo species in the Qinling Mountains, China during the twenty-first century. As these three species comprise almost the entire diet of the panda population in the region, the projected changes in bamboo distribution suggest a potential shortage of food for this population, unless alternative food sources become available. Although the projections were developed under unavoidable simplifying assumptions and uncertainties, they indicate potential challenges for panda conservation and underscore the importance of incorporating interspecific interactions into climate-change impact assessments and associated conservation planning.

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high-elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high-elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high-elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high-elevation species to climatic changes.

Well-Being, School Climate, and the Social Identity Process: A Latent Growth Model Study of Bullying Perpetration and Peer Victimization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Isobel; Reynolds, Katherine J.; Lee, Eunro; Subasic, Emina; Bromhead, David

2014-01-01

The present study concerns longitudinal research on bullying perpetration and peer victimization. A focus is on school factors of school climate (academic support, group support) and school identification (connectedness or belonging), which are conceptualized as related but distinct constructs. Analysis of change on these factors as well as…

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

PubMed

Cheung, W W L

2018-03-01

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.

PubMed

Rizzi, J; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Zabeo, A; Brigolin, D; Carniel, S; Pastres, R; Marcomini, A

2016-01-30

Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change, fish, and aquatic habitat in the Blue Mountains [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Katherine Ramsey; John C. Chatel; Deborah L. Konnoff; Robert A. Gecy; Dona Horan

2017-01-01

National Forest System lands in the Blue Mountains region support a diversity of important native aquatic species that will be affected by climate change. As part of the Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership, four of these species (spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Walbaum in Artedi), bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus Suckley), summer steelhead (O....

77 FR 31379 - Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge, Lake County, OR; Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-25

... by fire suppression and encroachment from western juniper? What effects will climate change have on... also a much larger supporting landscape influenced by changes in climate, land use, and other.... We will hold a meeting on May 31, 2012, at 6 p.m. at Daly Middle School, 220 South H Street, Lakeview...

A review of climate change impacts on birds

Treesearch

Robert W. Butler; William Taylor

2005-01-01

Regions of the world with high coastal zone biological productivity often support large numbers of birds. Important sources of this productivity are oceanographic upwelling created by winds and ocean currents, and runoff from the land. It is suggested that climate change effects on winds and ocean currents will potentially affect the timing and magnitude of coastal...

Strategies for reducing the impacts of surface transportation on global climate change : a synthesis of policy research and state and local mitigation strategies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

Climate change is likely to have more impact on the future of surface transportation than any other issue. The challenges and implications for surface transportation and for state DOTs include: the need to support major GHG reductions, the need to me...

Urban High School Students' Critical Science Agency: Conceptual Understandings and Environmental Actions around Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeill, Katherine L.; Vaughn, Meredith Houle

2012-01-01

This study investigates how the enactment of a climate change curriculum supports students' development of critical science agency, which includes students developing deep understandings of science concepts and the ability to take action at the individual and community levels. We examined the impact of a four to six week urban ecology curriculum…

A clarion call for aeolian research to engage with global land degradation and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, Adrian; Lee, Jeffrey A.; Baddock, Matthew; Gill, Thomas E.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Leys, John F.; Marticorena, Beatrice; Petherick, Lynda; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tatarko, John; Telfer, Matt; Webb, Nicholas P.

2018-06-01

This editorial represents a clarion call for the aeolian research community to provide increased scientific input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and an invitation to apply for ISAR funding to organize a working group to support this engagement.

Connecting to Nature at the Zoo: Implications for Responding to Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clayton, Susan; Luebke, Jerry; Saunders, Carol; Matiasek, Jennifer; Grajal, Alejandro

2014-01-01

Societal response to climate change has been inadequate. A perception that the issue is both physically and temporally remote may reduce concern; concern may also be affected by the political polarization surrounding the issue in the USA. A feeling of connection to nature or to animals may increase personal relevance, and a supportive social…

Forests: the potential consequences of climate variability and change

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2001-01-01

This pamphlet reports the recent scientific assessment that analyzed how future climate variablity and change may affect forests in the United States. The assessment, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, and supported, in part, by the U.S Department of Energy, and the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, describes the suite of potential impacts on forests....

Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2009-12-01

In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.

Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat. PMID:29316685

Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.

PubMed

Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang

2018-01-08

This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Climate Science Centers: Growing Federal and Academic Expertise in the Nation's Interests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryker, S. J.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Department of the Interior's (Interior) natural and cultural resource managers face increasingly complex challenges exacerbated by climate change. In 2009, under Secretarial Order 3289, Interior created eight regional Climate Science Centers managed by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center and in partnership with universities. Secretarial Order 3289 provides a framework to coordinate climate change science and adaptation efforts across Interior and to integrate science and resource management expertise from Federal, State, Tribal, private, non-profit, and academic partners. In addition to broad research expertise, these Federal/university partnerships provide opportunities to develop a next generation of climate science professionals. These include opportunities to increase the climate science knowledge base of students and practicing professionals; build students' skills in working across the boundary between research and implementation; facilitate networking among researchers, students, and professionals for the application of research to on-the-ground issues; and support the science pipeline in climate-related fields through structured, intensive professional development. In 2013, Climate Science Centers supported approximately 10 undergraduates, 60 graduate students, and 26 postdoctoral researchers. Additional students trained by Climate Science Center-affiliated faculty also contribute valuable time and expertise, and are effectively part of the Climate Science Center network. The Climate Science Centers' education and training efforts have also reached a number of high school students interested in STEM careers, and professionals in natural and cultural resource management. The Climate Science Centers are coordinating to build on each other's successful education and training efforts. Early successes include several intensive education experiences, such as the Alaska Climate Science Center's Girls on Ice, the Northeast's Consortium Retreat, the Northwest's Climate Science Boot Camp; the whole-network Early Career Climate Forum; the South Central Climate Science Center's Minority Internship; and a growing curriculum through Interior's National Conservation Training Center.

Records from Lake Qinghai: Holocene climate history of Northeastern Tibetan Plateau linking to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Z.; Colman, S.; Zhou, W.; Brown, E.; Li, X.; Jull, T.; Wang, S.; Liu, W.; Sun, Y.; Lu, X.; Song, Y.; Chang, H.; Cai, Y.; Xu, H.; Wang, X.; Liu, X.; Wu, F.; Han, Y.; Cheng, P.; Ai, L.; Wang, Z.; Qiang, X.; Shen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Wu, Z.; Liu, X.

2008-12-01

Lake Qinghai (99°36'-100°16'E, 36°32'-37°15'N ) of the north eastern margin of Tibet Plateau is the largest inland lake of China. It sits on the transitional zone of Asian monsoon- arid areas, receives influences of Asian monsoons and Westerlies, thus sensitive to global climate changes. Although previous studies had investigated Holocene climate change of Lake Qinghai area, it is rare to see precise Holocene climatic sequences of Lake Qinghai, nor in-depth discussions on controlling factors of Lake Qinghai climate changes. In Year 2005, with support from ICDP, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and National Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Drilling, Observation and Sampling of the Earths Continental Crust Corporation (DOSECC) and Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEECAS) took a series of shallows cores from the southern basin of Lake Qinghai. West sub-basin sediments display Holocene lacustrine feature for the upper 5m, while the 5-18m are interbeded sediments of shallow lake, eolian-lacustrine and eolian loess. Chinese and US scientists with support from NSFC, MOST, CAS and NSF analysed 1F core from west sub-basin depocenter of the south basin with multiple physical, chemical, biological approaches. By comparing with modern process observation records, we obtained proxies that respectfully reflect precipitation, temperature and lake salinity changes, etc., reconstructed high resolution time sequences of magnetic susceptibility, colour scale, grain size, Corg, C/N, δ13Corg, carbonate, δ13C and δ18O of carbonate and ostracodes, elements, char-soot,Uk'37 and %C37:4 as well as pollen of the last 13Ka. They indicate the climatic change history of Lake Qinghai since past 13Ka, and agreeable evidences are found from adjacent tree ring and stalagmite records. Comparison of Lake Qinghai Holocene climate change sequence with those from high altitude ice core, stalagmites and ocean records for East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon show that, in accordance with Asian monsoon climate changes, at 11-5ka cal. 14C BP Lake Qinghai revealed the warm and humid Optimal climate, while since 5ka cal.14C BP the Lake showed relatively cold and dry climate of New Glaciation, this orbital climate trend resembled northern hemisphere summer solar insolation changes. Lake Qinghai millennial-centennial climate events in Holocene are linked with Westerlies changes, and with East Asian summer monsoon front shift as well as winter monsoon, on centennial-decadal scale Lake Qinghai climate changes are controlled more by solar activities.

Florida-focused climate change lesson demonstrations from the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, R. R.

2013-12-01

A variety of Florida-focused climate change activities will be featured as part of the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops. In a combined effort from Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and University of South Florida's Coalition for Science Literacy (CSL), and supported by NASA's NICE initiative, the ASK Florida professional development workshops are a series of workshops designed to enhance and support climate change information and related pedagogical skills for middle school science teachers from Title-I schools in Florida. These workshops took place during a two-year period from 2011 to 2013 and consisted of two cohorts in Hillsborough and Volusia counties in Florida. Featured activities include lab-style exercises demonstrating topics such as storm surge and coastal geometry, sea level rise from thermal expansion, and the greenhouse effect. These types of labs are modified so that they allow more independent, inquiry thinking as they require teachers to design their own experiment in order to test a hypothesis. Lecture based activities are used to cover a broad range of topics including hurricanes, climate modeling, and sink holes. The more innovative activities are group activities that utilize roll-playing, technology and resources, and group discussion. For example, 'Climate Gallery Walk' is an activity that features group discussions on each of the climate literacy principles established by the United States Global Change Research Program. By observing discussions between individuals and groups, this activity helps the facilitators gather information on their previous knowledge and identify possible misconceptions that will be addressed within the workshops. Furthermore, 'Fact or Misconception' presents the challenge of identifying whether a given statement is fact or misconception based on the material covered throughout the workshops. It serves as a way to evaluate retention of knowledge as well as clarification and reinforcement of topics. Another featured activity is 'Climate Change Scenario' in which teachers roll play as groups from various facets of local government, who decide how to deal with a given climate change scenario in the Miami-Dade county area. This activity demonstrates the complexities of negotiations that policy makers must make for the greater good of the local economy and ecology. Finally, we highlight activities that utilize online resources for both scientific information and pedagogical strategies for teaching climate change at the middle school level. Such resources include MYNASADATA, hurricane tracking websites, other scientist-vetted climate change lessons, and outreach events like NOAA's Adopt-a-drifter. These activities are highlighted for other scientists, educators, and professional development groups in the hopes that they will inspire further collaboration and further commitment to enhancing climate change education for our nation's youth.

Public Perceptions of How Long Air Pollution and Carbon Dioxide Remain in the Atmosphere.

PubMed

Dryden, Rachel; Morgan, M Granger; Bostrom, Ann; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2018-03-01

The atmospheric residence time of carbon dioxide is hundreds of years, many orders of magnitude longer than that of common air pollution, which is typically hours to a few days. However, randomly selected respondents in a mail survey in Allegheny County, PA (N = 119) and in a national survey conducted with MTurk (N = 1,013) judged the two to be identical (in decades), considerably overestimating the residence time of air pollution and drastically underestimating that of carbon dioxide. Moreover, while many respondents believed that action is needed today to avoid climate change (regardless of cause), roughly a quarter held the view that if climate change is real and serious, we will be able to stop it in the future when it happens, just as we did with common air pollution. In addition to assessing respondents' understanding of how long carbon dioxide and common air pollution stay in the atmosphere, we also explored the extent to which people correctly identified causes of climate change and how their beliefs affect support for action. With climate change at the forefront of politics and mainstream media, informing discussions of policy is increasingly important. Confusion about the causes and consequences of climate change, and especially about carbon dioxide's long atmospheric residence time, could have profound implications for sustained support of policies to achieve reductions in carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of virtual research environment for regional climatic and ecological studies and continuous education support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Bogomolov, Vasily; Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

Volumes of environmental data archives are growing immensely due to recent models, high performance computers and sensors development. It makes impossible their comprehensive analysis in conventional manner on workplace using in house computing facilities, data storage and processing software at hands. One of possible answers to this challenge is creation of virtual research environment (VRE), which should provide a researcher with an integrated access to huge data resources, tools and services across disciplines and user communities and enable researchers to process structured and qualitative data in virtual workspaces. VRE should integrate data, network and computing resources providing interdisciplinary climatic research community with opportunity to get profound understanding of ongoing and possible future climatic changes and their consequences. Presented are first steps and plans for development of VRE prototype element aimed at regional climatic and ecological monitoring and modeling as well as at continuous education and training support. Recently developed experimental software and hardware platform aimed at integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced data "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/, Gordov et al., 2013; Shulgina et al., 2013; Okladnikov et al., 2013) is used as a VRE element prototype and approach test bench. VRE under development will integrate on the base of geoportal distributed thematic data storage, processing and analysis systems and set of models of complex climatic and environmental processes run on supercomputers. VRE specific tools are aimed at high resolution rendering on-going climatic processes occurring in Northern Eurasia and reliable and found prognoses of their dynamics for selected sets of future mankind activity scenaria. Currently the VRE element is accessible via developed geoportal at the same link (http://climate.scert.ru/) and integrates the WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, basic reanalysis and instrumental measurements data and support profound statistical analysis of storaged and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. New functionality recently has been added to the statistical analysis tools set aimed at detailed studies of climatic extremes occurring in Northern Asia. The VRE element is also supporting thematic educational courses for students and post-graduate students of the Tomsk State University. In particular, it allow students to perform on-line thematic laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example (Gordova et al, 2013). We plan to expand the integrated models set and add comprehensive surface and Arctic Ocean description. Developed VRE element "Climate" provides specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills can process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a common graphical web-browser. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant 13-05-12034, grant 14-05-00502, and integrated project SB RAS 131. References 1. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N., Krupchatnikov V.N., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G., Shulgina T.M. Computationaland information technologies for monitoring and modeling of climate changes and their consequences. Novosibirsk: Nauka, Siberian branch, 2013. - 195 p. (in Russian) 2. T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, I.G. Okladnikov, A.G., Titov, E.Yu. Genina, N.P. Gorbatenko, I.V. Kuzhevskaya,A.S. Akhmetshina. Software complex for a regional climate change analysis. // Vestnik NGU. Series: Information technologies. 2013. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P. 124-131. (in Russian) 3. I.G. Okladnikov, A.G. Titov, T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, V.Yu. Bogomolov, Yu.V. Martynova, S.P. Suschenko,A.V. Skvortsov. Software for analysis and visualization of climate change monitoring and forecasting data //Numerical methods and programming, 2013. Vol. 14. P. 123-131.(in Russian) 4. Yu.E. Gordova, E.Yu. Genina, V.P. Gorbatenko, E.P. Gordov, I.V. Kuzhevskaya, Yu.V. Martynova , I.G. Okladnikov, A.G. Titov, T.M. Shulgina, N.K. Barashkova Support of the educational process in modern climatology within the web-gis platform «Climate». Open and Distant Education. 2013, No 1(49)., P. 14-19.(in Russian)

Indigenous Health and Climate Change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global–local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Version 2.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, R.; Fort, E.; Hartke-O'Berg, N.; Varela-Acevedo, E.; Padgett, Holly A.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS's National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) is to serve the scientific needs of managers of fish, wildlife, habitats, and ecosystems as they plan for a changing climate. DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs) are management by NCCWSC and include this mission as a core responsibility, in line with the CSC mission to provide scientific support for climate-adaptation across a full range of natural and cultural resources. NCCWSC is a Science Center application designed in Drupal with the OMEGA theme. As a content management system, Drupal allows the science center to keep their website up-to-date with current publications, news, meetings and projects. OMEGA allows the site to be adaptive at different screen sizes and is developed on the 960 grid.

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.

2012-01-01

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-01-01

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. PMID:28469028

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant.

PubMed

Nourani, Elham; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-05-17

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. © 2017 The Author(s).

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

PubMed Central

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change. PMID:18302999

Improving the soil moisture data record of the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) and Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture estimates are valuable for hydrologic modeling, drought prediction and management, climate change analysis, and agricultural decision support. However, in situ measurements of soil moisture have only become available within the past few decades with additional sensors being installed ...

Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2009-12-01

In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover.

Global climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M

2007-11-01

There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Using Co-production to Enhance Co-production: Cultivating institutional capacity through exchange between climate science, social science, and practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalafatis, S.

2015-12-01

Many climate scientists and boundary organizations have accumulated years of experience providing decision support for climate adaptation related to landscape change. The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) is one such organization that has developed a reputation for providing stakeholders with climate change decision support throughout the Great Lakes region of North America. After five years of applied outreach, GLISA climate scientists working with practitioners identified three common limitations across projects that were slowing down the use of information, describing them as mismatched terminology, unrealistic expectations, and disordered integration. Discussions with GLISA-affiliated social scientists revealed compelling parallels between these observations and the existing social science literature on the persistent "usability gap" in information use as well as opportunities to preemptively overcome these barriers. The discovery of these overlaps between the climate scientists' experience of barriers and the social science literature as well as strategies to systematically address them demonstrate the potential for boundary organizations to act as incubators of more and more efficient co-production over time. To help illustrate these findings, this presentation also provides an example of decision-making for adaptation in the face of landscape change in which GLISA scientists assisted Isle Royale National Park with assessing the implications of future ecological transitions for current wildlife management efforts.

Chicago, IL Adapts to Improve Extreme Heat Preparedness

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recognizing that heat waves are expected to increase in Chicago due to climate change,–supported by the Chicago Climate Impacts Report, the city adopted a comprehensive set of actions to reduce deaths from extreme heat events.

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

Making the climate part of the human world: Why addressing beliefs and biases is necessary part of effective climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2009-12-01

Efforts to raise public awareness and understanding of the social, cultural and economic consequences of climate change often encounter skepticism. The primary causes of this skepticism, whether in the form of a mild rejection of proposed policy responses or an outright rejection of the basic scientific findings, is often cited to be the poor framing of issues by the scientific community, the quality of science education or public science literacy, disinformation campaigns by representatives of the coal and gas industry, individual resistance to behavioral change, and the hyperactive nature of the modern information culture. However, the root cause may be that the weather and climate, and by association climate change, is viewed as independent of the sphere of human influence in ancient and modern societies. In this presentation, I will outline how long-standing human beliefs in the separation between the earth and the sky and the modern framing of climate change as an “environmental” issue are limiting efforts to education the public about the causes, effects and possible response to climate change. First, sociological research in the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) finds strong evidence that beliefs in divine control of the weather and climate limit public acceptance of human-induced climate change. Second, media analysis and polling data from North America supports the role of belief and provides further evidence that climate change is viewed as a threat to an “other” labeled “the environment”, rather than a threat to people or society. The consequences of these mental models of the climate can be an outright reject of scientific theory related to climate change, a milder distrust of climate change predictions, a lack of urgency about mitigation, and an underestimate of the effort required to adapt to climate change. In order to be effective, public education about climate change needs to directly address the two, critical beliefs held by the majority of the audience. Proposed solutions include re-casting climate change as a broad societal concern, thus rejecting characterization of climate change as “environmental issue”, and clearly expressing to the audience the historical reasons why climate change may be hard to “believe”

Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

2018-02-01

Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

PubMed Central

Shin, Yong Seung

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

PubMed

Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PubMed

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Incorporating Climate Change Effects into Next-Generation Coastal Inundation Decision Support Systems: An Integrated and Community-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Y.; Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; LaRow, T.; Chassignet, E.; Stefanova, L. B.; Lu, J.; Xie, L.; Montalvo, S.; Liu, J.; Liu, B.

2012-12-01

75% of the world population lives within 100 km from the coastline. Coastal communities are subject to increasing coastal inundation risk due to the combined effects of hurricane-induced storm surge, tsunami, climate change, and sea level rise. This study is developing the next generation decision support systems (DSS) for storm surge and coastal inundation by incorporating the climate change impacts on hurricanes and sea level rise (SLR) along the Florida and North Carolina coast. Using a new methodology (instead of the "bath tub" approach) enhanced by the Institute for Sustainable Coastal Environment and Infrastructure (InSCEI) at University of Florida (UF), highly accurate and efficient coastal inundation maps (Base Flood Elevations and Surge Atlas) are being produced for current climate conditions. Atmospheric and climate scientists at Florida State University (FSU) and North Carolina State University (NCSU) are using global (FSU/COAPS) and regional (WRF) atmospheric models to estimate the range in hurricane activities during 2020-2040 and 2080-2100, using projected SSTs from the IPCC CMIP5 climate scenarios as lower boundary conditions. SLR experts at NCSU and FSU are analyzing historical sea level data and conducting numerical modeling to estimate the SLR at the coastal boundaries for the same IPCC scenarios. UF and NCSU are using the hurricane ensembles and the SLR scenarios provided by FSU and NCSU as input to storm surge and inundation models (CH3D-SSMS and CMAEPS, respectively) to produce high resolution inundation maps which include climate change effects. These future-climate coastal inundation maps will be much more accurate than the current ones and greatly improve the stakeholders' ability to mitigate coastal inundation risk throughout the U.S. and the world. These inundation maps for current and future climates will be communicated to a wide spectrum of stakeholders for feedback and further improvement. A national workshop will be held in January 2013 to engage stakeholders, researchers, and managers (federal, state, and local) of coastal inundation to develop strategies to improve communications among the various entities and to gather inputs on the development of the next -generation coastal inundation decision support system.

Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

2015-12-01

Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

PubMed

Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis

2016-10-01

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

2010-12-01

Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non-scientific stakeholders in government, civil society and the private sector, in a context which is different in many European countries. In the IS-ENES effort, a dialogue is set up between the communities in Europe, building on various existing research networks in the area of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Generally, the data needs have not been well articulated. If asked, people working on impacts and adaptation routinely seem to ask for data with the highest possible resolution. However, in reality for many impact and adaptation applications this is not needed, and the large resulting data sets may exceed the analytical capacity of the impact researchers. For impact analysis often various types of climate indices, derived from primary climate model output variables, are required, including indices for extremes and in probabilistic format. Rather than making output from climate modeling generically available, e.g. through a climate service e-portal, context-specific tailoring of information for specific applications is important for effective use. This may require some level of interaction between the users and the data providers, dependent on the specific questions to be addressed.

A Study of Teacher Candidates' Experiences Investigating Global Climate Change Within an Elementary Science Methods Course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hestness, Emily; Randy McGinnis, J.; Riedinger, Kelly; Marbach-Ad, Gili

2011-06-01

We investigated the inclusion of a curricular module on global climate change in an Elementary Science Methods course. Using complementary research methods, we analyzed findings from 63 teacher candidates' drawings, questionnaires, and journal entries collected throughout their participation in the module. We highlighted three focal cases to illustrate the diversity of participants' experiences. Findings suggest potential positive impacts on teacher candidates' content understanding related to global climate change, confidence to teach, and awareness of resources to support their future science instruction. Recommendations for science teacher education underscore the importance of providing opportunities for teacher candidates to increase their relevant content understanding, helping teacher candidates become familiar with appropriate curricular resources, and engaging in ongoing conversation and evaluation of developing views and understandings related to global climate change.

Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change: a case study of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) in the Black Forest, Germany.

PubMed

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald; Elkin, Che; Hanewinkel, Marc; Meilby, Henrik; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2013-06-15

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

PubMed Central

Rohr, Jason R.; Raffel, Thomas R.; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Paull, Sara H.; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host–parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host–parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change–disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host–parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host–parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host–parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations. PMID:27293606

Historical factors shaped species diversity and composition of Salix in eastern Asia.

PubMed

Wang, Qinggang; Su, Xiangyan; Shrestha, Nawal; Liu, Yunpeng; Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Wang, Zhiheng

2017-02-08

Ambient energy, niche conservatism, historical climate stability and habitat heterogeneity hypothesis have been proposed to explain the broad-scale species diversity patterns and species compositions, while their relative importance have been controversial. Here, we assessed the relative contributions of contemporary climate, historical climate changes and habitat heterogeneity in shaping Salix species diversity and species composition in whole eastern Asia as well as mountains and lowlands using linear regressions and distance-based redundancy analyses, respectively. Salix diversity was negatively related with mean annual temperature. Habitat heterogeneity was more important than contemporary climate in shaping Salix diversity patterns, and their relative contributions were different in mountains and lowlands. In contrast, the species composition was strongly influenced by contemporary climate and historical climate change than habitat heterogeneity, and their relative contributions were nearly the same both in mountains and lowlands. Our findings supported niche conservatism and habitat heterogeneity hypotheses, but did not support ambient energy and historical climate stability hypotheses. The diversity pattern and species composition of Salix could not be well-explained by any single hypothesis tested, suggesting that other factors such as disturbance history and diversification rate may be also important in shaping the diversity pattern and composition of Salix species.

Historical factors shaped species diversity and composition of Salix in eastern Asia

PubMed Central

Wang, Qinggang; Su, Xiangyan; Shrestha, Nawal; Liu, Yunpeng; Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Wang, Zhiheng

2017-01-01

Ambient energy, niche conservatism, historical climate stability and habitat heterogeneity hypothesis have been proposed to explain the broad-scale species diversity patterns and species compositions, while their relative importance have been controversial. Here, we assessed the relative contributions of contemporary climate, historical climate changes and habitat heterogeneity in shaping Salix species diversity and species composition in whole eastern Asia as well as mountains and lowlands using linear regressions and distance-based redundancy analyses, respectively. Salix diversity was negatively related with mean annual temperature. Habitat heterogeneity was more important than contemporary climate in shaping Salix diversity patterns, and their relative contributions were different in mountains and lowlands. In contrast, the species composition was strongly influenced by contemporary climate and historical climate change than habitat heterogeneity, and their relative contributions were nearly the same both in mountains and lowlands. Our findings supported niche conservatism and habitat heterogeneity hypotheses, but did not support ambient energy and historical climate stability hypotheses. The diversity pattern and species composition of Salix could not be well-explained by any single hypothesis tested, suggesting that other factors such as disturbance history and diversification rate may be also important in shaping the diversity pattern and composition of Salix species. PMID:28176816

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the implementation of the RRA methodology. The main output of the analysis are climate risk products produced with the DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) and represented by GIS-based maps and statistics of hazard, exposure, physical and environmental vulnerability, risk and damage. These maps are useful to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders and decision makers, to allow the classification and prioritization of areas that are likely to be affected by climate change impacts more severely than others in the same region, and therefore to support the identification of suitable areas for infrastructure, economic activities and human settlements toward the development of regional adaptation plans. The climate risk products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

PubMed

García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

2017-05-02

Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

A Developmental Examination of School-Wide Positive Behavior Support in Elementary School: Behavior Patterns, School Climate, and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betters-Bubon, Jennifer

2012-01-01

School-wide Positive Behavior Support (SWPBS) programs integrate research-based practice within a three-tier approach of prevention and intervention to impact change within school systems. Research suggests positive changes in student outcomes with the implementation of SWPBS. Supported by social-ecological and behavioral theory, this longitudinal…

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa.

PubMed

Lyam, Paul Terwase; Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species' genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species' ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species' adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

PubMed Central

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

Farmers' perception and adaptation practice to climate variability and change: a case study of the Vea catchment in Ghana.

PubMed

Limantol, Andrew Manoba; Keith, Bruce Edward; Azabre, Bismark Atiayure; Lennartz, Bernd

2016-01-01

Rain-fed agriculture remains the source of employment for a majority of Ghana's population, particularly in northern Ghana where annual rainfall is low. The purpose of this study is to examine farmers' perceptions and adaptation practices to climate change and variability in accordance with actual recorded weather data of the Vea catchment in Upper East Region of northern Ghana during the time interval from 1972 to 2012. Climatic data over 41-years (1972-2012) from four stations in vicinity of the catchment was evaluated to identify actual weather outcomes. A survey questionnaire targeting farmers with at least 30-years of farming experience in the area was administered in six of the eleven agricultural enumeration areas in the catchment covering 305 km(2). Of the 466 farmers interviewed, 79 % utilized rain-fed practices while 21 % utilized some form of irrigation. Results indicate that nearly 90 % of the farmers interviewed believe that temperature increased over the past 30-years, while over 94 % of the farmers believe that amount of rainfall, duration, intensity and rainy days has decreased. Nearly 96 % of the farmers believe that their farms are extremely vulnerable to decreased rainfall, droughts and changed timing of rainfall events. Climatic data of the catchment indicates a rising trend in temperature but no long-term changes in annual and monthly rainfall, thereby possibly increasing levels of evapotranspiration. While no statistical differences were found between rain-fed and irrigation agricultural types regarding receipt of external support, their approaches to climatic change adaptation do differ. Patently, 94 and 90 % of farmers relying on rain-fed and irrigation strategies respectively receive some form of support, primarily via extension services. Farmers using rain-fed practices adjust to climate variability by varying crop types via rotation without fertilizer while farmers employing irrigation practices are more likely to offset climate variability with a greater use of fertilizer application. The Vea catchment faces rising temperature and evapotranspiration trends. Farmers are aware of these climatic changes and are adapting strategies to cope with the effects but require support. Adequate extension services and irrigation facilities are needed to assist farmers in order to sustain their livelihoods on the long run.

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2015-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

2014-12-01

The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the particular challenges of supporting an integrated, repeatable workflow for socio-environmental data synthesis, and the advantages and limitations to using data as a launching point for interdisciplinary research projects.

Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

2013-04-01

The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European national road administrations regarding possible future climate change impacts. First project results are presented at the conference.

Experience of the Paris Research Consortium Climate-Environment-Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joussaume, Sylvie; Pacteau, Chantal; Vanderlinden, Jean Paul

2016-04-01

It is now widely recognized that the complexity of climate change issues translates itself into a need for interdisciplinary approaches to science. This allows to first achieve a more comprehensive vision of climate change and, second, to better inform the decision-making processes. However, it seems that willingness alone is rarely enough to implement interdisciplinarity. The purpose of this presentation is to mobilize reflexivity to revisit and analyze the experience of the Paris Consortium for Climate-Environment-Society. The French Consortium Climate-Environment-Society aims to develop, fund and coordinate interdisciplinary research into climate change and its impacts on society and environment. Launched in 2007, the consortium relies on the research expertise of 17 laboratories and federation in the Paris area working mainly in the fields of climatology, hydrology, ecology, health sciences, and the humanities and social sciences. As examples, economists and climatologists have studied greenhouse gas emission scenarios compatible with climate stabilization goals. Historical records have provided both knowledge about past climate change and vulnerability of societies. Some regions, as the Mediterranean and the Sahel, are particularly vulnerable and already have to cope with water availability, agricultural production and even health issues. A project showed that millet production in West Africa is expected to decline due to warming in a higher proportion than observed in recent decades. Climate change also raises many questions concerning health: combined effects of warming and air quality, impacts on the production of pollens and allergies, impacts on infectious diseases. All these issues lead to a need for approaches integrating different disciplines. Furthermore, climate change impacts many ecosystems which, in turn, affect its evolution. Our experience shows that interdisciplinarity supposes, in order to take shape, the conjunction between programming choices, supporting this kind of approach, and autonomy given to experimenting with interdisciplinary practices. The interdisciplinary approach does not put itself in place and requires a collective reflection on the objectives and practices. Many tools exist to support this process, in particular to mature interdisciplinarity. This incubation period allows the various disciplines to learn to know each other and to build a common conceptual and methodological basis.

Facilitating climate change assessments by providing easy access to data and decision-support tools on-line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.

2012-12-01

Public land managers are under increasing pressure to consider the potential impacts of climate change but they often lack access to the necessary scientific information and the support to interpret projections. Over 27% of the United States land area are designated as protected areas (e.g. National Parks and Wilderness Areas) including 76,900,000 ha of National Forests areas for which management plans need to be revised to prepare for climate change. Projections of warmer drier conditions raise concerns about extended summer drought, increased fire risks and potential pest/insect outbreaks threatening the carbon sequestration potential of the region as well as late summer water availability. Downscaled climate projections, soil vulnerability indices, and simulated climate change impacts on vegetation cover, fire frequency, carbon stocks, as well as species range shifts, have been uploaded in databasin.org to provide easy access to documented information that can be displayed, shared, and freely manipulated on line. We have uploaded NARCCAP scenarios and provided animations and time series display to look at regional and temporal trends in climate projections. We have uploaded simulation results of vegetation shifts from the global scale to local national parks and shared results with concerned managers. We have used combinations of vegetation models and niche models to evaluate wildlife resilience to future conditions. We have designed fuzzy logic models for ecological assessment projects and made them available on the Data Basin web site. We describe how we have used all this information to quantify climate change vulnerability for a variety of ecosystems, developing new web tools to provide comparative summaries of the various types of spatial and temporal data available for different regions.

The AmeriFlux Data Activity and Data System: An Evolving Collection of Data Management Techniques, Tools, Products and Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, Thomas A; Krassovski, Misha B; Yang, Bai

2013-01-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the U.S. Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Over this period, climate change science has expanded from research focusing on basic understanding of geochemical cycles, particularly the carbon cycle, to integrated research addressing climate change impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Interests in climate change data and information worldwide have grown remarkably and, as a result, so have demands and expectations for CDIAC s data systems. To meet the growing demands, CDIAC s strategy has beenmore » to design flexible data systems using proven technologies blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. CDIAC development teams are multidisciplinary and include computer science and information technology expertise, but also scientific expertise necessary to address data quality and documentation issues and to identify data products and system capabilities needed by climate change scientists. CDIAC has learned there is rarely a single commercial tool or product readily available to satisfy long-term scientific data system requirements (i.e., one size does not fit all and the breadth and diversity of environmental data are often too complex for easy use with commercial products) and typically deploys a variety of tools and data products in an effort to provide credible data freely to users worldwide. Like many scientific data management applications, CDIAC s data systems are highly customized to satisfy specific scientific usage requirements (e.g., developing data products specific for model use) but are also designed to be flexible and interoperable to take advantage of new software engineering techniques, standards (e.g., metadata standards) and tools and to support future Earth system data efforts (e.g., ocean acidification). CDIAC has provided data management support for numerous long-term measurement projects crucial to climate change science. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We share our approaches in satisfying the challenges of delivering AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges handling climate change data, further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.« less

Cal-Adapt: California's Climate Data Resource and Interactive Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, N.; Mukhtyar, S.; Wilhelm, S.; Galey, B.; Lehmer, E.

2016-12-01

Cal-Adapt is a web-based application that provides an interactive toolkit and information clearinghouse to help agencies, communities, local planners, resource managers, and the public understand climate change risks and impacts at the local level. The website offers interactive, visually compelling, and useful data visualization tools that show how climate change might affect California using downscaled continental climate data. Cal-Adapt is supporting California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment through providing access to the wealth of modeled and observed data and adaption-related information produced by California's scientific community. The site has been developed by UC Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF) in collaboration with the California Energy Commission's (CEC) Research Program. The Cal-Adapt website allows decision makers, scientists and residents of California to turn research results and climate projections into effective adaptation decisions and policies. Since its release to the public in June 2011, Cal-Adapt has been visited by more than 94,000 unique visitors from over 180 countries, all 50 U.S. states, and 689 California localities. We will present several key visualizations that have been employed by Cal-Adapt's users to support their efforts to understand local impacts of climate change, indicate the breadth of data available, and delineate specific use cases. Recently, CEC and GIF have been developing and releasing Cal-Adapt 2.0, which includes updates and enhancements that are increasing its ease of use, information value, visualization tools, and data accessibility. We showcase how Cal-Adapt is evolving in response to feedback from a variety of sources to present finer-resolution downscaled data, and offer an open API that allows other organization to access Cal-Adapt climate data and build domain specific visualization and planning tools. Through a combination of locally relevant information, visualization tools, and access to primary data, Cal-Adapt allows users to investigate how the climate is projected to change in their areas of interest.

Environmental literacy framework with a focus on climate change (ELF): a framework and resources for teaching climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.; Blythe, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Fischbein, S.; Johnson, K.; Kontar, Y.; Rack, F. R.; Kulhanek, D. K.; Pennycook, J.; Reed, J.; Youngman, B.; Reeves, M.; Thomas, R.

2010-12-01

The challenges of communicating climate change science to non-technical audiences present a daunting task, but one that is recognized in the science community as urgent and essential. ANDRILL's (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) international network of scientists, engineers, technicians and educators work together to convey a deeper understanding of current geoscience research as well as the process of science to non-technical audiences. One roadblock for educators who recognize the need to teach climate change has been the lack of a comprehensive, integrated set of resources and activities that are related to the National Science Education Standards. Pieces of the climate change puzzle can be found in the excellent work of the groups of science and education professionals who wrote the Essential Principles of Ocean Sciences, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science, Earth Science Literacy Principles: The Big Ideas and Supporting Concepts of Earth Science, and Essential Principals and Fundamental Concepts for Atmospheric Science Literacy, but teachers have precious little time to search out the climate change goals and objectives in those frameworks and then find the resources to teach them. Through NOAA funding, ANDRILL has created a new framework, The Environmental Literacy Framework with a Focus on Climate Change (ELF), drawing on the works of the aforementioned groups, and promoting an Earth Systems approach to teaching climate change through five units: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Geosphere, Hydrosphere/Cryosphere, and Energy as the driver of interactions within and between the “spheres.” Each key concept in the framework has a hands-on, inquiry activity and matching NOAA resources for teaching the objectives. In its present form, we present a ‘road map’ for teaching climate change and a set of resources intended to continue to evolve over time.

Holocene Substrate Influences on Plant and Fire Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briles, C.; Whitlock, C. L.

2011-12-01

The role of substrates in facilitating plant responses to climate change in the past has received little attention. Ecological studies, documenting the relative role of fertile and infertile substrates in mediating the effects of climate change, lack the temporal information that paleoecological lake studies provide on how plants have responded under equal, larger and more rapid past climate events than today. In this paper, pollen and macroscopic charcoal preserved in the sediments of eight lakes surrounded by infertile ultramafic soils and more fertile soils in the Klamath Mountains of northern California were analyzed. Comparison of late-Quaternary paleoecological sites suggests that infertile and fertile substrates supported distinctly different plant communities. Trees and shrubs on infertile substrates were less responsive to climate change than those on fertile substrates, with the only major compositional change occurring at the glacial/interglacial transition (~11.5ka), when temperature rose 5oC. Trees and shrubs on fertile substrates were more responsive to climate changes, and tracked climate by moving along elevational gradients, including during more recent climate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Fire regimes were similar until 4ka on both substrate types. After 4ka, understory fuels on infertile substrates became sparse and fire activity decreased, while on fertile substrates forests became increasingly denser and fire activity increased. The complacency of plant communities on infertile sites to climate change contrasts with the individualistic and rapid adjustments of species on fertile sites. The findings differ from observations on shorter time scales that show the most change in herb cover and richness in the last 60 years on infertile substrates. Thus, the paleorecord provides unique long-term ecological data necessary to evaluate the response of plants to future climate change under different levels of soil fertility.

Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change Science into High School and Community College Energy Course Offerings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, C.

2013-05-01

In reviewing studies evaluating trends in greenhouse gasses, weather, climate and/or ecosystems, it becomes apparent that climate change is a reality. It has also become evident that the energy sector accounts for most of the greenhouse gas emissions with worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide increasing by 31 percent from 1990 to 2005, higher than in the previous thousands of years. While energy courses and topics are presented in high school and community college classes the topic of Climate Change Science is not always a part of the conversation. During the summer of 2011 and 2012, research undergraduates conducted interviews with a total of 39 national community college and 8 high school instructors who participated in a two week Sustainable Energy Education Training (SEET) workshop. Interview questions addressed the barriers and opportunities to the incorporation of climate change as a dimension of an energy/renewable energy curriculum. Barriers found included: there is not enough instruction time to include it; some school administrators including community members do not recognize climate change issues; quality information about climate change geared to students is difficult to find; and, most climate change information is too scientific for most audiences. A Solution to some barriers included dialogue on sustainability as a common ground in recognizing environmental changes/concerns among educators, administrators and community members. Sustainability discussions are already supported in school business courses as well as in technical education. In conclusion, we cannot expect climate change to dissipate without humans making more informed energy and environmental choices. With global population growth producing greater emissions resulting in increased climate change, we must include the topic of climate change to students in high school and community college classrooms, preparing our next generation of leaders and workforce to be equipped to find solutions, (such as renewable energy and sustainability practices), to climate change and environmental sustainability.

Climate change and disturbance interactions: Workshop on climate change and disturbance interactions in western North America, Tucson, Ariz., 12-15 February 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Don; Allen, Craig D.

2007-01-01

Warming temperatures across western North America, coupled with increased drought, are expected to exacerbate disturbance regimes, particularly wildfires, insect outbreaks, and invasions of exotic species. Many ecologists and resource managers expect ecosystems to change more rapidly from disturbance effects than from the effects of a changing climate by itself. A particular challenge is to understand the interactions among disturbance regimes; for example, how will massive outbreaks of bark beetles, which kill drought-stressed trees by feeding on cambial tissues, increase the potential for large severe wildfires in a warming climate?Researchers in climatology, ecosystem science, fire and insect ecology, and landscape modeling from across western North America convened in Tucson, Ariz., for a 2 and a half day intensive workshop to identify new research directions in climate change and disturbance ecology. Four work groups focused on different aspects of the response of disturbance regimes to climate change: (1) extreme events and climatic variability (2) the effects of changing disturbance regimes on ecosystems, (3) disturbance interactions and cumulative effects, and (4) developing new landscape disturbance models. The workshop was structured with the analytic hierarchy process, a decision support method for achieving consensus from diverse groups of experts without sacrificing individual contributions.

NOAA and the NRC America's Climate Choices Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koblinsky, C. J.

2010-12-01

The Department of Commerce Appropriations Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-161) called for NOAA to execute an agreement with the National Academy of Sciences to: “…investigate and study the serious and sweeping issues relating to global climate change and make recommendations regarding what steps must be taken and what strategies must be adopted in response to global climate change, including the science and technology challenges thereof.” This led to the America’s Climate Choices study by the National Academy of Sciences. Consequently, NOAA has fully supported financially and endorsed the approach by the Academy. More recently, NOAA has proposed the formation of a Climate Service. Many of the recommendations from the America’s Climate Choices study address the foundations and future needs for climate science and services. In this presentation, I will describe how NOAA’s work in climate services is aligned with some of the recommendations in the America’s Climate Choices study.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998-): a climate change-related public health narrative.

PubMed

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec's new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human-environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a "public health narrative" presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998-2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002-2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006-2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and "transfrontier knowledge-to-action" for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998–): a climate change-related public health narrative

PubMed Central

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec’s new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human–environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a “public health narrative” presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998–2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002–2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006–2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and “transfrontier knowledge-to-action” for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures. PMID:21966228

ASK Florida; a climate change education professional development program for middle school teachers in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, R. R.

2012-12-01

A series of professional development workshops covering the fundamentals of climate change have been developed and facilitated for two groups of middle school science teachers in three Florida counties. The NASA-supported joint venture between Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and the University of South Florida's (USF's) Coalition for Science Literacy, ASK Florida, focuses on expanding and deepening teachers' content knowledge of a wide range of climate change topics, connecting local and regional changes to the global picture, and supporting classroom implementation and effective teaching practices. Education experts from USF, climate scientists from COAPS, and Hillsborough county teachers and science coaches coordinated and developed the workshop content, which is based on Florida's Next Generation Sunshine State Standards in science, science curriculum guides for 6th grade, and teacher interest. Several scientists have facilitated activities during the workshop, including professors in meteorology and climatology, research scientists in the field, a NOAA program manager, the state climatologists for Florida, and others. Having these climate scientists present during the workshop provides teachers an opportunity to interact directly with the scientists and gain insight into the climatology field. Additionally, we host an open-forum discussion panel during which teachers can ask the experts about any topics of interest. Activities are designed to enhance the scientific skill level of the teachers. Introductory activities reinforce teachers' abilities to distinguish facts from opinions and to evaluate sources. Other activities provide hands-on experience using actual scientific data from NASA and other agencies. For example, teachers analyze precipitation data to create distributions of Florida rainfall, examine sea level trends at various locations, identify Atlantic hurricane frequencies during the phases of ENSO, and create maps of climate data available on the MYNASADATA web portal. The human aspect of climate change is addressed by discussing anthropological influences such as land use changes. In addition, we examine scientific and public use and interpretation of climate models, scenarios, and projections, and explore adaptation and mitigation strategies for Florida-specific climate projections. Pedagogy is incorporated throughout the workshops to demonstrate how the content and activities can be adapted for their students. Furthermore, we support educators in overcoming obstacles associated with teaching global and regional climate change. This program targets teachers from Title-I schools because students from these schools are typically underrepresented in the STEM fields. Additionally, classroom technology is often limited; therefore, it is important to adapt resources so they can be used in the classroom with or without computers. Activities are presented through an inquiry-based format to encourage knowledge acquisition and discovery similar to that occurring in the actual scientific field. Finally, we prepare teachers to address apathetic or antiscientific sentiments their students may have about climate change by identifying the background issues and ideology and developing strategies to make the content more relevant to their students' lives.

Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, Theodore S.

There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Quevauviller, Philippe; Barceló, Damia; Beniston, Martin; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Harding, Richard J; Iglesias, Ana; Ludwig, Ralf; Navarra, Antonio; Navarro Ortega, Alícia; Mark, Ole; Roson, Roberto; Sempere, Daniel; Stoffel, Markus; van Lanen, Henny A J; Werner, Micha

2012-12-01

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change.

PubMed

Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2014-07-22

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132,000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial-interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.

Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change

PubMed Central

Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2014-01-01

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132 000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial–interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary. PMID:24898370

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

A Comprehensive Climate Science and Solutions Education Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, J. M.; Cook, J.; Little, L. J.; Peacock, K.; Sinclair, P.; Zeller, C.

2016-12-01

We are creating a broadly based curriculum for a multidisciplinary University/College course on climate change science and solutions. Climate change is a critical topic for all members of society and certainly for all students in postsecondary education. The curriculum will feature a wide range of topic presentations on the (i) science of climate change; and (ii) multidisciplinary solutions to climate change challenges. The end result will be an online textbook featuring short contributions from session participants and other invited specialists. First authors in this AGU Education Session will provide a 20-minute comprehensive lecture that will be recorded and shared as part of the online textbook. The recorded talks will be merged with author provided PowerPoint slides and appropriate high definition video footage to support the discussion, where possible. Authors will be asked to sign a waiver allowing the video recording to be part of the online textbook. Access to the videos and textbook chapters will be provided online to students registered in recognized university classes on climate change science and solutions for a modest fee.

Climate change and the decline of a once common bird.

PubMed

McClure, Christopher J W; Rolek, Brian W; McDonald, Kenneth; Hill, Geoffrey E

2012-02-01

Climate change is predicted to negatively impact wildlife through a variety of mechanisms including retraction of range. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and regional and global climate indices to examine the effects of climate change on the breeding distribution of the Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common species that is rapidly declining. We found that the range of the Rusty Blackbird retracted northward by 143 km since the 1960s and that the probability of local extinction was highest at the southern range margin. Furthermore, we found that the mean breeding latitude of the Rusty Blackbird was significant and positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a lag of six years. Because the annual distribution of the Rusty Blackbird is affected by annual weather patterns produced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, our results support the hypothesis that directional climate change over the past 40 years is contributing to the decline of the Rusty Blackbird. Our study is the first to implicate climate change, acting through range retraction, in a major decline of a formerly common bird species.

The building of knowledge, language, and decision-making about climate change science: a cross-national program for secondary students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arya, Diana; Maul, Andrew

2016-04-01

The United Nations' declaration on climate change education in December 2014 has sparked a renewal of policies and programs initiated during the 'Decade of Education for Sustainable Development' (DESD, 2005-2014), aimed at promoting awareness, understanding, and civic action for environmental sustainability within learning communities all around the world. We present findings from a dialogic, multimodal, and literacies-based educational project designed to provide secondary students (N = 141) from four countries with the resources to read about and discuss evidence regarding climate change from seminal studies with peers and a core group of scientists (N = 7). Post-program interviews revealed a significant increase in language use related to evidence-based reasoning. Students also demonstrated an increased propensity to recycle. These findings support the hypothesis that providing opportunities for students to read and discuss seminal scientific sources incites positive changes in beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors related to climate change and climate science, and understandings of the nature of scientific evidence and argumentation.

Revisiting the Cassandra syndrome; the changing climate of coral reef research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, J. A.; Baird, A. H.; Pratchett, M. S.

2008-12-01

Climate change will be with us for decades, even with significant reductions in emissions. Therefore, predictions made with respect to climate change impacts on coral reefs need to be highly defensible to ensure credibility over the timeframes this issue demands. If not, a Cassandra syndrome could be created whereby future more well-supported predictions of the fate of reefs are neither heard nor acted upon. Herein, popularising predictions based on essentially untested assumptions regarding reefs and their capacity to cope with future climate change is questioned. Some of these assumptions include that: all corals live close to their thermal limits, corals cannot adapt/acclimatize to rapid rates of change, physiological trade-offs resulting from ocean acidification will lead to reduced fecundity, and that climate-induced coral loss leads to widespread fisheries collapse. We argue that, while there is a place for popularising worst-case scenarios, the coral reef crisis has been effectively communicated and, though this communication should be sustained, efforts should now focus on addressing critical knowledge gaps.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

PubMed Central

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J.A.; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes. PMID:28440790

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-04-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Center for Corporate Climate Leadership Building Internal Support in Supply Chain Management

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Organizations build support for addressing GHG emissions by developing key allies in business units, leveraging one business unit to drive change across the organization, and securing executive support while communicating resource needs.

Using biological data to test climate change refugia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; Maher, S. P.

2015-12-01

The concept of refugia has been discussed from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to address how populations persisted during periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, several studies have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify locations that are buffered from climate change effects so as to favor greater persistence of valued resources relative to other areas. Refugia are now being discussed among natural resource agencies as a potential adaptation option in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Using downscaled climate data, we identified hypothetical refugial meadows in the Sierra Nevada and then tested them using survey and genetic data from Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi) populations. We predicted that refugial meadows would show higher genetic diversity, higher rates of occupancy and lower rates of extirpation over time. At each step of the research, we worked with managers to ensure the largest impact. Although no panacea, identifying climate change refugia could be an important strategy for prioritizing habitats for management intervention in order to conserve populations. This research was supported by the California LCC, the Northeast Climate Science Center, and NSF.

High School Teachers and Students Knowledge and Views about Climate Change, a Nice NASA Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleicher, R. E.; Lambert, J. L.

2014-12-01

One factor for some Americans being confused about climate change is their lack of understanding its underlying science concepts (Somerville & Hassol, 2011). In spite of this, climate change has been under-emphasized in school curricula (Bardsley & Bardsley, 2007). This is an important challenge for science educators, especially given the increasing public awareness of climate change impacts in their everyday lives (NCADAC, 2013).One way to address this challenge is to involve teachers in professional learning projects with the expectation that their enhanced content and pedagogical knowledge about climate change will transfer into more effective instruction resulting in increased student learning. For teacher educators, this translates into providing vibrant professional learning activities that energize and engage science teachers to develop interesting lessons that stimulate their students to learn important science concepts and develop positive attitudes to science. This study examined content knowledge and views about climate change of 33 high school science teachers and their1050 students who participated in lessons developed in a NASA-funded professional learning project. The teachers participated in a seven-day climate change summer institute and received in-classroom follow-up support throughout the school year. Teacher data sources included a background survey (undergraduate majors, number of years teaching science), science teaching self-efficacy (STEBI-A) scores, Climate Science Inventory of Knowledge (CSIK), and Six-America's Views on Climate Change. Student data included journal entries, and pre-post measures using the CSIK and Six-Americas instruments. T-tests and ANOVA showed that both students and their teachers increased in climate science knowledge. Teachers' views about climate change were more aligned to climate scientists' views. Teachers also increased in their science teaching self-efficacy and those with higher self-efficacy demonstrated higher climate change science knowledge. In addition to these data, the professional learning model and examples of the hands-on activities utilized by teachers will be shared in this presentation. The Logic Model is included below to provide an overall picture of the project.

Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

2011-12-01

Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

Integrated climate and land change research to improve decision-making and resource management in Southern Africa: The SASSCAL approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Olwoch, J. M.

2017-12-01

The ability of countries in southern Africa to jointly respond to climate challenges with scientifically informed and evidence-based actions and policy decisions remains low due to limited scientific research capacity and infrastructure. The Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL; www.sasscal.org) addresses this gap by implementing a high-level framework to guide research and innovation investments in climate change and adaptive land management interventions in Southern Africa. With a strong climate service component as cross-cutting topic, SASSCAL's focus is to improve the understanding of climate and land management change impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Southern Africa. The paper presents a variety of SASSCAL driven activities which contribute to better understand climate and long-term environmental change dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales in Southern Afrika and how these activities are linked to support research and decision-making to optimize agricultural practices as well as sustainable environmental and water resources management. To provide consistent and reliable climate information for Southern Africa, SASSCAL offers various climate services ranging from real-time climate observation across the region utilizing the SASSCAL WeatherNet to regional climate change analysis and modelling efforts at seasonal-to-decadal timescales using climate data from various sources. SASSCAL also offers the current state of the environment in terms of recent data on changes in the environment that are necessary for setting appropriate adaptation strategies . The paper will further demonstrate how these services are utilized for interdisciplinary research on the impact of climate change on natural resources and socio-economic development in the SASSCAL countries and how this knowledge can be effectively used to mitigate and adapt to climate change by informed decision-making from farm to regional level.

A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; de Boer, H. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Weber, S. L.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2012-03-01

We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000-1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and Israel on one side and the Central Mediterranean and Turkey on the other, similar to precipitation anomalies associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in current climate. We find that changes in the position and intensity of the jet stream indicated by our analysis correlate with millennial changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. A model simulation indicates the proxies of climatic humidity used in our analysis were unlikely to be influenced by climatic aridification caused by deforestation during the Roman Period. That finding is supported by an analysis of the distribution of archaeological sites in the Eastern Mediterranean which exhibits no evidence that human habitation distribution changed since ancient times as a result of climatic aridification. Therefore we conclude that changes in climatic humidity over the Mediterranean during the Roman Period were primarily caused by a modification of the jet stream linked to sea surface temperature change in the North Atlantic. Based on our findings, we propose that ocean-atmosphere coupling may have contributed to regulating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity during the period of analysis.

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

2017-04-01

As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here, we discuss the most recent advances on the application of soil mapping and modeling to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies; and These strategies are a key component of the implementation of sustainable land management policies need to be integrated are critical to. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Pereira, P., Brevic, E., Cerda, A., Jordan, A. (2017) Soil mapping and processes models for sustainable land management applied to modern challenges. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B. (Eds.) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land use management (Elsevier Publishing House) ISBN: 9780128052006

Promoting Scientific Thinking and Conceptual Change about Alternative Explanations of Climate Change and Other Controversial Socio-scientific Topics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, D.; Sinatra, G. M.

2013-12-01

Critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal of scientific explanations have been underemphasized in many science classrooms (NRC, 2012). Deep science learning demands that students increase their ability to critically evaluate the quality of scientific knowledge, weigh alternative explanations, and explicitly reappraise their plausibility judgments. Therefore, this lack of instruction about critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal has, in part, contributed to diminished understanding about complex and controversial topics, such as global climate change. The Model-Evidence Link (MEL) diagram (originally developed by researchers at Rutgers University under an NSF-supported project; Chinn & Buckland, 2012) is an instructional scaffold that promotes students to critically evaluate alternative explanations. We recently developed a climate change MEL and found that the students who used the MEL experienced a significant shift in their plausibility judgments toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change. Using the MEL for instruction also resulted in conceptual change about the causes of global warming that reflected greater understanding of fundamental scientific principles. Furthermore, students sustained this conceptual change six months after MEL instruction (Lombardi, Sinatra, & Nussbaum, 2013). This presentation will discuss recent educational research that supports use of the MEL to promote critical evaluation, plausibility reappraisal, and conceptual change, and also, how the MEL may be particularly effective for learning about global climate change and other socio-scientific topics. Such instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) is demanded by both the Next Generation Science Standards (Achieve, 2013) and the Common Core State Standards for English Language Arts and Mathematics (CCSS Initiative-ELA, 2010; CCSS Initiative-Math, 2010), as well as a society that is equipped to deal with challenges in a way that is beneficial to our national and global community.

75 FR 12976 - Amendment of Restricted Area R-2204 High and R-2204 Low; Oliktok Point, AK

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-18

... Oliktok, AK, is required for current moored balloon and future climate-related aviation activities. DATES... in support of the proposed rule stressing the importance of continued climate studies at Oliktok... regions to climate change. In 2004, the need to operate an unlighted moored balloon in clouds resulted in...

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot

PubMed Central

Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F

2005-01-01

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest–rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 101–104 km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 103 km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 103 km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation. PMID:16608697

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot.

PubMed

Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F

2006-03-22

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest-rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 10(1)-10(4) km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 10(3) km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 10(3) km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation.

Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niyogi, D.; Andresen, J.

2011-12-01

Corn and soybean production contributes over $100 billion annually to the U.S. economy, most of which comes from the intensely cultivated corn-belt region of the Midwest. Successful crop production in this region is highly dependent on favorable temperatures and appropriate precipitation patters, making this industry vulnerable to changes in climate patterns. Though predictive models are constantly improving, there are gaps in our understanding of how different management practices can be used to help farmers adapt to changes in climate while maintaining economic viability. Furthermore, currently available tools and models are not meeting producers' needs, and little is known about the types of information they would like to access. Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers is an integrated research and extension project that seeks to improve the resilience and profitability of farms in the North Central Region amid variable climate change through the development and dissemination of improved decision support tools, resource materials, and training. The goal is to work closely with producers to help them make better long-term plans on what, when and where to plant, and also how to manage crops for maximum yields and minimum environmental damage. The U2U team is composed of a uniquely qualified group of climatologists, crop modelers, agronomists, economists, and social scientists from 10 partner universities across the Midwest. Over the span of 5 years, collaborators will complete tasks associated with 5 objectives that will enhance the usability of climate information for the agricultural community and lead to more sustainable farming operations. First the team will produce research on the biophysical and economic impacts of different climate scenarios on corn and soybean yields in the North Central Region (objective 1) and conduct complementary research to understand how producers and advisors are likely to use this information (objective 2). Based on these findings, decision support tools (DSTs) and training materials will be developed to effectively deliver climate information to stakeholders (objective 3). Next, DSTs will be piloted in a four-state region (Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Michigan) to help improve tools and evaluate effectiveness (objective 4). After several iterations with stakeholders to ensure the usability and utility of the tools, the program will be extended to all twelve states in the region (objective 5). Decision support tools, along with training products, surveys, feedback mechanisms and collaborative social tools, will be supported using the NSF-funded and Purdue University developed HUBzero web-based technology.

First AGU Climate Communication Prize awarded

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McEntee, Christine

2012-02-01

Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and cofounder of the RealClimate blog (http://www.realclimate.org/), received the first AGU Climate Communication Prize at the honors ceremony. The prize recognizes excellence in climate communication as well as the promotion of scientific literacy, clarity of messaging, and efforts to foster respect and understanding for science-based values related to climate change. Sponsored by Nature's Own—a Boulder, Colo.-based company specializing in the sale of minerals, fossils, and decorative stone specimens—the prize comes with a $25,000 cash award. "AGU created this award to raise the visibility of climate change as a critical issue facing the world today, to demonstrate our support for scientists who commit themselves to the effective communication of climate change science, and to encourage more scientists to engage with the public and policy makers on how climate research can contribute to the sustainability of our planet," said AGU president Michael Mc Phaden. "That's why we are so pleased to recognize Gavin for his dedicated leadership and outstanding scientific achievements. We hope that his work will serve as an inspiration for others."

Addressing Vermont's concerns on climate change on many levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, A. K.

2016-12-01

As a climate scientist, I realized about 12 years ago that one of my responsibilities was to help Vermont understand and adapt to climate change. My road-map has four components: 1) Newspaper articles, radio and TV interviews to explain climate issues and how to deal with them in plain English (about 100 so far) 2) Public talks across the state to schools, professional, business and citizens groups, the legislature and state government - in fact to anyone that asked - with a willingness to honestly and clearly address all issues raised (230 so far). 3) Specific research on how the climate and seasonal cycle of Vermont have changed in the past, and are likely to change in the future, exploring the unknowns. 4) A personal web-site to make all my writings, talks and research open access (http://alanbetts.com). Because Vermont is a small state with a rural and environmental ethos and a strong desire to understand, I have been able to reach across the state in a decade. In parallel, Vermont has put in place an ambitious renewable energy policy, which is well underway. My multi-faceted strategy is open, clear and transparently honest, aimed at helping society understand and deal with this critical issue. This is in sharp contrast with the secret, deceptive multifaceted strategy to discredit climate science by well-funded right-wing groups (see Dark Money by Jane Mayer), in support of their political and economic agenda, which has found little support in Vermont.

Creating a Partnering Community Aimed to Foster Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, D.; McNeal, K. S.; Smith, R.; Hare, D.; Nair, U. S.

2011-12-01

The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast through crafting a shared vision and strategic plan among stakeholders that promotes scientific formal and informal educational resources, materials and programs; a diverse network of key partnering organizations throughout the Southeastern United States (SE US); and effective public dialogues that address diverse learners and audiences and supports learning of climate, climate change, and its relevance upon human and environmental systems. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with more than fifty key stakeholders that stem from a few key publics such as agriculture, education, leisure, religious organizations, and culturally diverse communities. These key publics in the SE US frequently consist of individuals that place great trust in local, private efforts, and CLiPSE has realized the importance of the role of the partnering organizations in providing information through a trusted source. A second unique characteristic of the SE US is the predominately conservative and Protestant citizenry in the region. Working with and through these communities enhances climate change education outreach to this citizenry. The CLiPSE project rests on solid climate science and learning science research in order to formulate an effective plan with desired learning outcomes of critical thinking and civil conversation through effective communication strategies. This paper will present the CLiPSE model in reaching the key publics that traditionally hold ideologies that are traditionally perceived as incompatible with climate change science. We will present the strategies utilized to bring together experts and researchers in climate science, learning science, and social science with practitioners and leaders of key stakeholder groups to formulate a shared climate change education plan in the SE US that is uniquely formatted for each target audience. We will also share what we have learned from interacting with the leaders of our partnering organizations in crafting effective messages for their audiences and addressing learners' affective and cognitive domains.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

2009-12-01

Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

Teachers Learning to Research Climate: Development of hybrid teacher professional development to support climate inquiry and research in the classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odell, M. R.; Charlevoix, D. J.; Kennedy, T.

2011-12-01

The GLOBE Program is an international science and education focused on connecting scientists, teachers and students around relevant, local environmental issues. GLOBE's focus during the next two years in on climate, global change and understanding climate from a scientific perspective. The GLOBE Student Climate Research Campaign (SCRFC) will engage youth from around the world in understanding and researching climate through investigations of local climate challenges. GLOBE teachers are trained in implementation of inquiry in the classroom and the use of scientific data collection protocols to develop inquiry and research projects of the Earth System. In preparation for the SCRC, GLOBE teachers will need additional training in climate science, global change and communicating climate science in the classroom. GLOBE's reach to 111 countries around the world requires development of scalable models for training teachers. In June GLOBE held the first teacher professional development workshop (Learning to Research Summer Institute) in a hybrid format with two-thirds of the teachers participating face-to-face and the remaining teachers participating virtually using Adobe Connect. The week long workshop prepared teachers to integrate climate science inquiry and research projects in the classrooms in the 2011-12 academic year. GLOBE scientists and other climate science experts will work with teachers and their students throughout the year in designing and executing a climate science research project. Final projects and research results will be presented in May 2012 through a virtual conference. This presentation will provide the framework for hybrid teacher professional development in climate science research and inquiry projects as well as summarize the findings from this inaugural session. The GLOBE Program office, headquartered in Boulder, is funded through cooperative agreements with NASA and NOAA with additional support from NSF and the U.S. Department of State. GLOBE is supported in countries around the world through bi-lateral agreements between U.S. Department of state and national governments.

Effect of climate change on marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikebo, F. B.; Sundby, S.; Aadlandsvik, B.; Fiksen, O.

2003-04-01

As a part of the INTEGRATION project, headed by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, funded by the German Research Council, the impact of climate change scenarios on marine fish populations will be addressed on a spesific population basis and will focus on fish populations in the northern North Atlantic with special emphasis on cod. The approach taken will mainly be a modelling study supported by analysis of existing data on fish stocks and climate. Through down-scaling and nesting techniques, various climate change scenarios with reduced THC in the North Atlantic will be investigated with higher spatial resolution for selected shelf areas. The hydrodynamical model used for the regional ocean modeling is ROMS (http://marine.rutgers.edu/po/models/roms/). An individual based model will be implemented into the larval drift module to simulate growth of the larvae along the drift paths.

Glacial-interglacial climate changes recorded by debris flow fan deposits, Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Arcy, Mitch; Roda-Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.

2017-08-01

It is hotly debated whether and how climate changes are recorded by terrestrial stratigraphy. Basin sediments produced by catchment-alluvial fan systems may record past climate over a variety of timescales, and could offer unique information about how climate controls sedimentation. Unfortunately, there are fundamental uncertainties about how climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature translate into sedimentological signals. Here, we examine 35 debris flow fan surfaces in Owens Valley, California, that record deposition throughout the past 125,000 years, during which climate has varied significantly. We show that the last full glacial-interglacial cycle is recorded with high fidelity by the grain size distributions of the debris flow deposits. These flows transported finer sediment during the cooler glacial climate, and became systematically coarser-grained as the climate warmed and dried. We explore the physical mechanisms that might explain this signal, and rule out changes in sediment supply through time. Instead, we propose that grain size records past changes in storm intensity, which is responsible for debris flow initiation in this area and is decoupled from average rainfall rates. This is supported by an exponential Clausius-Clapeyron-style scaling between grain size and temperature, and also reconciles with climate dynamics and the initiation of debris flows. The fact that these alluvial fans exhibit a strong, sustained sensitivity to orbital climate changes sheds new light on how eroding landscapes and their sedimentary products respond to climatic forcing. Finally, our findings highlight the importance of threshold-controlled events, such as storms and debris flows, in driving erosion and sedimentation at the Earth's surface in response to climate change.

Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation. Passing this course raises awareness of the general public, as well as prepares the user for subsequent registration in the system and work with its tools in conducting independent research. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

Remote Sensing for Climate and Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Diane

2011-01-01

Remote sensing is being used more and more for decision-making and policy development. Specific examples are: (1) Providing constraints on climate models used in IPCC assessments (2) Framing discussions about greenhouse gas monitoring (3) Providing support for hazard assessment and recovery.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Decision Support: The New Threat of Vector-borne Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, F.; Kumar, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change and vector-borne diseases constitute a massive threat to human development. It will not be enough to cut emissions of greenhouse gases-the tide of the future has already been established. Climate change and vector-borne diseases are already undermining the world's efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It is in the best interests of the world leaders to think in terms of concerted global actions, but adaptation and mitigation must be accomplished within the context of local community conditions, resources, and needs. Failure to act will continue to consign developed countries to completely avoidable health risks and significant expense. Failure to act will also reduce poorest of the world's population-some 2.6 billion people-to a future of diminished opportunity. Northrop Grumman has taken significant steps forward to develop the tools needed to assess climate change impacts on public health, collect relevant data for decision making, model projections at regional and local levels; and, deliver information and knowledge to local and regional stakeholders. Supporting these tools is an advanced enterprise architecture consisting of high performance computing, GIS visualization, and standards-based architecture. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. For the present climate WRF was forced with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model 20th century simulation. For the 21th century climate, we used an ECHAM5 simulation with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. WRF was run in nested mode at spatial resolution of 108 km, 36 km and 12 km and 28 vertical levels. This model was examined relative to two mosquito vectors, both competent carriers of dengue fever, a viral, vector-borne disease. Models which incorporate public health considerations can enable decision makers to take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing environmental conditions. In this paper we provide a snapshot of our climate initiative and some examples relative to our public health practice work in vector-borne diseases to illustrate how integrated decision support could be of assistance to regional and local communities worldwide.

Overcoming Barriers: Tailoring Climate Education for Latino and non-Latino Citizen to Impact Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, M.; Boudrias, M. A.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Gershunov, A.; Anders, S.

2013-12-01

Culture has been shown to be an important determinant of Latino/Hispanic American environmental attitudes (Schultz, Unipan, & Gamba, 2000), which might help to explain the underrepresentation of Latinos in the U.S. 'environmental' movement. With shifting U.S. demographics, however, there is increased urgency to understand how Latinos integrate into the community that is concerned and literate about climate change. As part of the Climate Education Partners (CEP) work in San Diego, we investigated how to address this ethnic group disparity. In this paper, we describe a study of how climate change science knowledge relates to Latino and Non-Latino citizen (a) engagement in conservation behaviors and (b) more informed decision-making. Drawing upon previous work on the Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) (Estrada et al., 2011), we hypothesized that climate change knowledge that promotes efficacy (i.e., a sense that one can do something) would relate to greater engagement in conservation behaviors and more informed decision-making (both common of community members concerned about climate change). To test this model, 1001 San Diego residence participated in a telephone survey in which the attitudes towards climate change were assessed using '6 Americas' segmentation (Leiserowitz et al., 2011), in addition to climate change science knowledge, efficacy, values, and engagement in weekly and yearly climate change friendly behaviors (e.g., conservation, transportation, community engagement behaviors). Results showed that there were significant differences in the 6 America segmentation distributions, knowledge, efficacy and behavioral engagement with Latinos significantly more concerned than Non-Latinos, and reporting greater knowledge, efficacy and engagement in behaviors. However, data from both groups showed support for the TIMSI theoretical framework, such that efficacy mediated the relationship between climate change knowledge and behavior. Thus, for both groups, climate change science knowledge was more likely to result in behavioral engagement when the science knowledge was accompanied with the belief that one has the ability to engage in behaviors that mitigate or adapt to climate change (i.e., efficacy). Implications for how to improve both Latino and Non-Latino climate change education that results in informed decision-making and greater integration into the community concerned about climate change will be discussed.

Response of ESV to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusuli, Yusufujiang; Sidik, Halida; Gupur, Adila; Hong, Jiang; Kadir, Rayila

2016-04-01

Ecosystem goods and services refer to the dependence of economic wealth and human well-being on natural systems. It is a common knowledge that the changing of structure and function of the ecosystem due to climate change and human activities. It is a priority issue to study on various spatiotemporal scales, the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change and anthropogenic pressure in inland areas. In an effort to better understand the influence of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services, we evaluated the change in ESV of the Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang, China from 1973 to 2014 employing methods of MK, MK Sneyers, ESV and dynamic degree of LUCC. The Landsat images, digital elevation model (DEM) and metrological data were applied to assessing the ESV and its change. According to the degree of effects of the climate change and human activities, the research area was divided into two parts: the mountain area and the plain oasis area at a contour of 1400 m above sea level. According to type and affect, the land cover was classified as water, wetland, desert, fields, glacier, warm shrub grassland, cold meadow steppe and highland vegetation. We analyzed the relationship between the variation of ESV and precipitation, and evaporation and then quantitatively differentiated the influence of climate change and human activities on ESV. Results show that: (1) distinct change points of precipitation and evaporation in mountain and plain oasis of the Yanqi basin were detected by the MK-Sneyers test. The precipitation increased and the evaporation declined in mountain and plain oasis in the same way. Enlargement of agricultural areas to accommodate an increased population and socio-economic development was detected by conversion matrix of LUCC in oasis area. As a result, the variation of ESV was caused by climate change and human activities jointly; (2) the declining trend of ESV in the mountain area was mainly caused by shrinking of the glacier area; (3) ESV was decreased initially and increased afterwards taking 2004 as a turning point following the trend of increased precipitation and decreased evaporation. Combined effects of climate change and human activities are main cause of ESV variations in the past 40 years in Yanqi basin. The main reasons for increased ESV in plain oasis include enlarging the artificial oasis due to intensified human activities, and supporting favorable climate change (increased precipitation and decreased evaporation). Key words: Climate change; Human activities; Ecosystem Service Value; Yanqi basin Acknowledgements: This work was supported jointly by the Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No.41161007, No. 41461006), the Doctoral Start-up Foundation of Xinjiang Normal University (No.XJNUBS1528) and the Special funds for Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (No.2014KL016).

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

EdGCM: Research Tools for Training the Climate Change Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Zhou, J.; Sieber, R.

2011-12-01

Climate scientists employ complex computer simulations of the Earth's physical systems to prepare climate change forecasts, study the physical mechanisms of climate, and to test scientific hypotheses and computer parameterizations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report (2007) demonstrates unequivocally that policy makers rely heavily on such Global Climate Models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of potential economic and emissions scenarios. However, true climate modeling capabilities are not disseminated to the majority of world governments or U.S. researchers - let alone to the educators who will be training the students who are about to be presented with a world full of climate change stakeholders. The goal is not entirely quixotic; in fact, by the mid-1990's prominent climate scientists were predicting with certainty that schools and politicians would "soon" be running GCMs on laptops [Randall, 1996]. For a variety of reasons this goal was never achieved (nor even really attempted). However, around the same time NASA and the National Science Foundation supported a small pilot project at Columbia University to show the potential of putting sophisticated computer climate models - not just "demos" or "toy models" - into the hands of non-specialists. The Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM) gave users access to a real global climate model and provided them with the opportunity to experience the details of climate model setup, model operation, post-processing and scientific visualization. EdGCM was designed for use in both research and education - it is a full-blown research GCM, but the ultimate goal is to develop a capability to embed these crucial technologies across disciplines, networks, platforms, and even across academia and industry. With this capability in place we can begin training the skilled workforce that is necessary to deal with the multitude of climate impacts that will occur over the coming decades. To further increase the educational potential of climate models, the EdGCM project has also created "EZgcm". Through a joint venture of NASA, Columbia University and McGill University EZgcm moves the focus toward a greater use of Web 1.0 and Web 2.0-based technologies. It shifts the educational objectives towards a greater emphasis on teaching students how science is conducted and what role science plays in assessing climate change. That is, students learn about the steps of the scientific process as conveyed by climate modeling research: constructing a hypothesis, designing an experiment, running a computer model, using scientific visualization to support analysis, communicating the results of that analysis, and role playing the scientific peer review process. This is in stark contrast to what they learn from the political debate over climate change, which they often confuse with a scientific debate.

Country, climate change adaptation and colonisation: insights from an Indigenous adaptation planning process, Australia.

PubMed

Nursey-Bray, Melissa; Palmer, Robert

2018-03-01

Indigenous peoples are going to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Developing tailored, place based, and culturally appropriate solutions will be necessary. Yet finding cultural and institutional 'fit' within and between competing values-based climate and environmental management governance regimes remains an ongoing challenge. This paper reports on a collaborative research project with the Arabana people of central Australia, that resulted in the production of the first Indigenous community-based climate change adaptation strategy in Australia. We aimed to try and understand what conditions are needed to support Indigenous driven adaptation initiatives, if there are any cultural differences that need accounting for and how, once developed they be integrated into existing governance arrangements. Our analysis found that climate change adaptation is based on the centrality of the connection to 'country' (traditional land), it needs to be aligned with cultural values, and focus on the building of adaptive capacity. We find that the development of climate change adaptation initiatives cannot be divorced from the historical context of how the Arabana experienced and collectively remember colonisation. We argue that in developing culturally responsive climate governance for and with Indigenous peoples, that that the history of colonisation and the ongoing dominance of entrenched Western governance regimes needs acknowledging and redressing into contemporary environmental/climate management.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

PubMed

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Improving Public Engagement With Climate Change: Five "Best Practice" Insights From Psychological Science.

PubMed

van der Linden, Sander; Maibach, Edward; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-11-01

Despite being one of the most important societal challenges of the 21st century, public engagement with climate change currently remains low in the United States. Mounting evidence from across the behavioral sciences has found that most people regard climate change as a nonurgent and psychologically distant risk-spatially, temporally, and socially-which has led to deferred public decision making about mitigation and adaptation responses. In this article, we advance five simple but important "best practice" insights from psychological science that can help governments improve public policymaking about climate change. Particularly, instead of a future, distant, global, nonpersonal, and analytical risk that is often framed as an overt loss for society, we argue that policymakers should (a) emphasize climate change as a present, local, and personal risk; (b) facilitate more affective and experiential engagement; (c) leverage relevant social group norms; (d) frame policy solutions in terms of what can be gained from immediate action; and (e) appeal to intrinsically valued long-term environmental goals and outcomes. With practical examples we illustrate how these key psychological principles can be applied to support societal engagement and climate change policymaking. © The Author(s) 2015.

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources, Perceived Risks, and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power.

PubMed

Vainio, Annukka; Paloniemi, Riikka; Varho, Vilja

2017-03-01

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO 2 emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Gornitz, Vivien; Bader, Daniel A.; Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

2016-12-01

While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

Water Resources Risks and the Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tools, Case Studies, and Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, E. K.; Blodgett, D. L.; Booth, N.

2014-12-01

The Water Resources Risk topic of the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is designed to provide decision support, technical, and educational resources to communities, water resource managers, policy analysts, and water utilities working to increase the resilience of water resources to climate change. We highlight the partnerships (between federal and state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private partners), tools (e.g., downscaled climate products, historical and real-time water data, and decision support) and success stories that are informing the CRT Water Resources Risks Theme content, and identify remaining needs in available resources for building resilience of water resources to climate change. The following questions will frame the content of the Water Resources Risk CRT: How are human and natural components of the hydrologic cycle changing? How can communities and water managers plan for uncertain future conditions? How will changing water resources impact food production, energy resources, ecosystems, and human health? What water resources data are of high value to society and are they easily accessible? Input on existing tools, resources, or potential partnerships that could be used to further develop content and fill gaps in the Water Resources CRT is welcome. We also invite ideas for water resources 'innovation challenges', in which technology developers work to create tools to that enhance the capacity of communities and managers to increase resilience of water resources at the local and regional scales.

Climate change effects on above- and below-ground interactions in a dryland ecosystem.

PubMed

González-Megías, Adela; Menéndez, Rosa

2012-11-19

Individual species respond to climate change by altering their abundance, distribution and phenology. Less is known, however, about how climate change affects multitrophic interactions, and its consequences for food-web dynamics. Here, we investigate the effect of future changes in rainfall patterns on detritivore-plant-herbivore interactions in a semiarid region in southern Spain by experimentally manipulating rainfall intensity and frequency during late spring-early summer. Our results show that rain intensity changes the effect of below-ground detritivores on both plant traits and above-ground herbivore abundance. Enhanced rain altered the interaction between detritivores and plants affecting flower and fruit production, and also had a direct effect on fruit and seed set. Despite this finding, there was no net effect on plant reproductive output. This finding supports the idea that plants will be less affected by climatic changes than by other trophic levels. Enhanced rain also affected the interaction between detritivores and free-living herbivores. The effect, however, was apparent only for generalist and not for specialist herbivores, demonstrating a differential response to climate change within the same trophic level. The complex responses found in this study suggest that future climate change will affect trophic levels and their interactions differentially, making extrapolation from individual species' responses and from one ecosystem to another very difficult.

Engaging Scientists and Users in Climate Change Research and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloyd, E. T.; Reeves, K.; Shimamoto, M. M.; Zerbonne, S.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Global Change Research Program has a mandate to "consult with actual and potential users of the results of the program" in developing products that will support learning about and responding to climate change. USGCRP has sought to engage stakeholders throughout the development and dissemination of key products, such as the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3, 2014) and the Climate and Health Assessment (CHA, 2016), in the strategic planning processes leading to the National Global Change Research Plan (2012) and Update to the Strategic Plan (2016), and through regular postings to social media that highlight research results and opportunities for engagement. Overall, USGCRP seeks to promote dialogue between scientific experts, stakeholders, and decision makers about information needs in regions or sectors, the potential impacts of climate change, and possible responses. This presentation will describe how USGCRP has implemented various stakeholder engagement measures during the planning, development, and release of products such as NCA3 and CHA. Through repeated opportunities for stakeholder input, USGCRP has promoted process transparency and inclusiveness in the framing of assessments and other products. In addition, USGCRP has supported scientists' engagement with a range of audiences and potential collaborators through a variety of mechanisms, including community-based meetings, deliberative forums, and identification of non-Federal speaking and knowledge co-production opportunities. We will discuss key lessons learned and successful approaches for engaging users as well as opportunities and challenges for future engagement.

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

PubMed Central

Slingo, Julia; Palmer, Tim

2011-01-01

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation. PMID:22042896

Argumentation Key to Communicating Climate Change to the Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleicher, R. E.; Lambert, J. L.

2012-12-01

Argumentation plays an important role in how we communicate climate change science to the public and is a key component integrated throughout the Next Generation Science Standards. A scientific argument can be described as a disagreement between explanations with data being used to justify each position. Argumentation is social process where two or more individuals construct and critique arguments (Kuhn & Udell, 2003; Nussbaum, 1997). Sampson, Grooms, and Walker's (2011) developed a framework for understanding the components of a scientific argument. The three components start with a claim (a conjecture, conclusion, explanation, or an answer to a research question). This claim must fit the evidence (observations that show trends over time, relationships between variables or difference between groups). The evidence must be justified with reasoning (explains how the evidence supports the explanation and whey it should count as support). In a scientific argument, or debate, the controversy focuses on how data were collected, what data can or should be included, and what inferences can be made based on a set of evidence. Toulmin's model (1969) also includes rebutting or presenting an alternative explanation supported by counter evidence and reasoning of why the alternative is not the appropriate explanation for the question of the problem. The process of scientific argumentation should involve the construction and critique of scientific arguments, one that involves the consideration of alternative hypotheses (Lawson, 2003). Scientific literacy depends as much on the ability to refute and recognize poor scientific arguments as much as it does on the ability to present an effective argument based on good scientific data (Osborne, 2010). Argument is, therefore, a core feature of science. When students learn to construct a sound scientific argument, they demonstrate critical thinking and a mastery of the science being taught. To present a convincing argument in support of climate change, students must have a sound foundation in the science underlying it. One place to lay this foundation is in the high school science classroom. For students to gain a good conceptual understanding of climate change science, teachers need a sound understanding of climate change and effective resources to teach it to students. Teacher professional development opportunities are required to provide this background as well as establish collaborative curriculum planning opportunities on the school site (Shulman, 2007). Various strategies for and challenges of implementing argumentation with preservice and practicing teachers will be discussed in this session, as well as ways that argumentation skills can help the broader public evaluate claims of climate skeptics. In the field of argumentation theory, Goodwin (2010) has designed a strategy for developing the ability to make effective scientific arguments. The goal is to establish trust even when there is strong disagreement. At the core, a student fully acknowledges the uncertainty involved in the complex science underlying climate change. This has the effect of establishing some degree of trust. In other words, teachers or students trying to explain climate change to others might be perceived as more trustworthy if they openly declare that there are degrees of uncertainty in different aspects of climate change science (American Meteorological Society, 2011).

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European contribution to ESGF and contributes to the ESGF open source effort, notably through the development of search, monitoring, quality control, and metadata services. In its second phase, IS-ENES2 supports the implementation of regional climate model results from the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). These services were extended within the European FP7 Climate Information Portal for Copernicus (CLIPC) project, and some could be later integrated into the European Copernicus platform.

Don't Just Sit There - Do Something!: Engaging and Empowering U.S. Adults Through Short, Funny, Internet Videos About Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portlock, J.; Laird, H.

2015-12-01

Communitopia, a 501(c)3 organization, uses humor, new media, and the short video format to engage and empower audiences and improve climate literacy. Our main project, the Don't Just Sit There - Do Something! video series (http://djst.tv), takes the complex subject of climate science, breaks it down into digestible nuggets of short, funny video, and couples it with easy actions viewers can take to make a difference. The series has 25 episodes so far, and more than 80,000 views on YouTube. We are reaching our target audience of high-school-age and adult viewers in the United States (94% of viewers are known to fit this demographic). Don't Just Sit There - Do Something! uses a strategic model for breaking through the fear and dread around climate change in the general population. It uses humor, positivity and brevity to frame the issue, and gives the audience simple actions designed to empower in each self-contained episode. We approach each piece of the climate puzzle with scientific rigor, and cite all our sources. Our approach is light-hearted and fun, because it is a more productive way to have a conversation about tough issues than scolding and guilt. The series is ongoing, and we are always focused on climate change. To determine the efficacy of our approach and efforts, we measure video views and other metrics through our YouTube channel, compile feedback and comments through YouTube and other social media outlets, and track actions taken through web metrics (click-through rates). We are also currently working with the Behavioral and Community Health Sciences Department at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health to evaluate the videos' impact. From August-October 2015, we are using an online survey to evaluate the Don't Just Sit There - Do Something! series. We will assess viewers' climate change education and awareness, commitment to support action steps that alleviate climate change, and inclination to support policy action before and after watching. Where possible, we have aligned survey questions with those of other groups, such as the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, to better assess our survey population vs. the general population. We will share data about the benefits of using this novel approach for climate change communication.