78 FR 42491 - Aluminum Extrusions from the People's Republic of China: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-16

...'') imported by Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. (collectively, ``Valeo..., Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court No. 12-00381 (CIT February 13, 2013).\\2... Remand, Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling, Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court...

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Weak climatic control of stand-scale fire history during the late holocene.

PubMed

Gavin, Daniel G; Hu, Feng Sheng; Lertzman, Kenneth; Corbett, Peter

2006-07-01

Forest fire occurrence is affected by multiple controls that operate at local to regional scales. At the spatial scale of forest stands, regional climatic controls may be obscured by local controls (e.g., stochastic ignitions, topography, and fuel loads), but the long-term role of such local controls is poorly understood. We report here stand-scale (<100 ha) fire histories of the past 5000 years based on the analysis of sediment charcoal at two lakes 11 km apart in southeastern British Columbia. The two lakes are today located in similar subalpine forests, and they likely have experienced the same late-Holocene climatic changes because of their close proximity. We evaluated two independent properties of fire history: (1) fire-interval distribution, a measure of the overall incidence of fire, and (2) fire synchroneity, a measure of the co-occurrence of fire (here, assessed at centennial to millennial time scales due to the resolution of sediment records). Fire-interval distributions differed between the sites prior to, but not after, 2500 yr before present. When the entire 5000-yr period is considered, no statistical synchrony between fire-episode dates existed between the two sites at any temporal scale, but for the last 2500 yr marginal levels of synchrony occurred at centennial scales. Each individual fire record exhibited little coherency with regional climate changes. In contrast, variations in the composite record (average of both sites) matched variations in climate evidenced by late-Holocene glacial advances. This was probably due to the increased sample size and spatial extent represented by the composite record (up to 200 ha) plus increased regional climatic variability over the last several millennia, which may have partially overridden local, non-climatic controls. We conclude that (1) over past millennia, neighboring stands with similar modern conditions may have experienced different fire intervals and asynchronous patterns in fire episodes, likely because local controls outweighed the synchronizing effect of climate; (2) the influence of climate on fire occurrence is more strongly expressed when climatic variability is relatively great; and (3) multiple records from a region are essential if climate-fire relations are to be reliably described.

Body image mediates negative family climate and deteriorating glycemic control for single adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Hartl, Amy C; Seiffge-Krenke, Inge; Laursen, Brett

2015-12-01

Glycemic control declines during adolescence, as youth with diabetes struggle with pubertal changes and a changing social world. The present study tests whether body image mediates longitudinal links between family climate and changes in adolescent glycemic control. Mediation was hypothesized for nondating adolescents but not for dating adolescents, because the former are thought to remain more family oriented than the latter. Participants were German adolescents with Type 1 diabetes (51 girls, 58 boys; M = 15.84 years, SD = 1.44). Participants reported body image and family climate. Physicians assayed blood HbA1c levels (M = 8.22%, SD = 1.80%) to measure glycemic control. For nondating adolescents, body image mediated associations between family climate and longitudinal changes in glycemic control. Poorer family climate was associated with poorer body image, which predicted deteriorating glycemic control. For dating adolescents, family climate was unassociated with changes in glycemic control. Nondating adolescents may look to parents for feedback on body image, which affects how they manage the challenges of diabetes. Parents and practitioners alike should be alert to the fact that family climate continues to be an important determinant of adolescent adjustment, particularly for those who have not moved into romantic relationships. We know that body image matters to adolescents, but for some youth, body image may be the difference between health and serious physical problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Central Sensitization and Perceived Indoor Climate among Workers with Chronic Upper-Limb Pain: Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Jakobsen, Markus D.; Jay, Kenneth; Persson, Roger; Andersen, Lars L.

2015-01-01

Monitoring of indoor climate is an essential part of occupational health and safety. While questionnaires are commonly used for surveillance, not all workers may perceive an identical indoor climate similarly. The aim of this study was to evaluate perceived indoor climate among workers with chronic pain compared with pain-free colleagues and to determine the influence of central sensitization on this perception. Eighty-two male slaughterhouse workers, 49 with upper-limb chronic pain and 33 pain-free controls, replied to a questionnaire with 13 items of indoor climate complaints. Pressure pain threshold (PPT) was measured in muscles of the arm, shoulder, and lower leg. Cross-sectional associations were determined using general linear models controlled for age, smoking, and job position. The number of indoor climate complaints was twice as high among workers with chronic pain compared with pain-free controls (1.8 [95% CI: 1.3–2.3] versus 0.9 [0.4–1.5], resp.). PPT of the nonpainful leg muscle was negatively associated with the number of complaints. Workers with chronic pain reported more indoor climate complaints than pain-free controls despite similar actual indoor climate. Previous studies that did not account for musculoskeletal pain in questionnaire assessment of indoor climate may be biased. Central sensitization likely explains the present findings. PMID:26425368

Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, Mark A.; Warren, Robert J., II; Baldrian, Petr; Crowther, Thomas W.; Maynard, Daniel S.; Oldfield, Emily E.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; King, Joshua R.

2014-07-01

Decomposition of organic matter strongly influences ecosystem carbon storage. In Earth-system models, climate is a predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter. This assumption is based on the mean response of decomposition to climate, yet there is a growing appreciation in other areas of global change science that projections based on mean responses can be irrelevant and misleading. We test whether climate controls on the decomposition rate of dead wood--a carbon stock estimated to represent 73 +/- 6 Pg carbon globally--are sensitive to the spatial scale from which they are inferred. We show that the common assumption that climate is a predominant control on decomposition is supported only when local-scale variation is aggregated into mean values. Disaggregated data instead reveal that local-scale factors explain 73% of the variation in wood decomposition, and climate only 28%. Further, the temperature sensitivity of decomposition estimated from local versus mean analyses is 1.3-times greater. Fundamental issues with mean correlations were highlighted decades ago, yet mean climate-decomposition relationships are used to generate simulations that inform management and adaptation under environmental change. Our results suggest that to predict accurately how decomposition will respond to climate change, models must account for local-scale factors that control regional dynamics.

Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation

Treesearch

Anne Jefferson; Anne Nolin; Sarah Lewis; Christina Tague

2008-01-01

Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north-west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies....

Linking the climatic and geochemical controls on global soil carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doetterl, Sebastian; Stevens, Antoine; Six, Johan; Merckx, Roel; Van Oost, Kristof; Casanova Pinto, Manuel; Casanova-Katny, Angélica; Muñoz, Cristina; Boudin, Mathieu; Zagal Venegas, Erick; Boeckx, Pascal

2015-04-01

Climatic and geochemical parameters are regarded as the primary controls for soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and turnover. However, due to the difference in scale between climate and geochemical-related soil research, the interaction of these key factors for SOC dynamics have rarely been assessed. Across a large geochemical and climatic transect in similar biomes in Chile and the Antarctic Peninsula we show how abiotic geochemical soil features describing soil mineralogy and weathering pose a direct control on SOC stocks, concentration and turnover and are central to explaining soil C dynamics at larger scales. Precipitation and temperature had an only indirect control by regulating geochemistry. Soils with high SOC content have low specific potential CO2 respiration rates, but a large fraction of SOC that is stabilized via organo-mineral interactions. The opposite was observed for soils with low SOC content. The observed differences for topsoil SOC stocks along this transect of similar biomes but differing geo-climatic site conditions are of the same magnitude as differences observed for topsoil SOC stocks across all major global biomes. Using precipitation and a set of abiotic geochemical parameters describing soil mineralogy and weathering status led to predictions of high accuracy (R2 0.53-0.94) for different C response variables. Partial correlation analyses revealed that the strength of the correlation between climatic predictors and SOC response variables decreased by 51 - 83% when controlling for geochemical predictors. In contrast, controlling for climatic variables did not result in a strong decrease in the strength of the correlations of between most geochemical variables and SOC response variables. In summary, geochemical parameters describing soil mineralogy and weathering were found to be essential for accurate predictions of SOC stocks and potential CO2 respiration, while climatic factors were of minor importance as a direct control, but are important through governing soil weathering and geochemistry. In conclusion, we pledge for a stronger implementation of geochemical soil properties to predict SOC stocks on a global scale. Understanding the effects of climate (temperature and precipitation) change on SOC dynamics also requires good understanding of the relationship between climate and soil geochemistry.

Variable temperature seat climate control system

DOEpatents

Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

1997-05-06

A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

Soil Dissolved Organic Carbon Fluxes are Controlled by both Precipitation and Longer-Term Climate Effects on Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hotchkiss, E. R.; Ziegler, S. E.; Edwards, K. A.; Bowering, K.

2017-12-01

Water acts as a control on the cycling of organic carbon (OC). Forest productivity responses to climate change are linked to water availability while water residence time is a major control on OC loss in aquatic ecosystems. However, controls on the export of terrestrial OC to the aquatic environment remains poorly understood. Transport of dissolved OC (DOC) through soils both vertically to deeper soil horizons and into aquatic systems is a key flux of terrestrial OC, but the climate drivers controlling OC mobilized from soils is poorly understood. We installed zero-tension lysimeters across similar balsam fir forest sites within three regions that span a MAT gradient of 5.2˚C and MAP of 1050-1500 mm. Using soil water collected over all seasons for four years we tested whether a warmer and wetter climate promotes greater DOC fluxes in ecosystems experiencing relatively high precipitation. Variability within and between years was compared to that observed across climates to test the sensitivity of this flux to shorter relative to longer-term climate effects on this flux. The warmest and wettest southern site exhibited the greatest annual DOC flux (25 to 28 g C m-2 y-1) in contrast to the most northern site (8 to 10 g C m -2 y-1). This flux represented 10% of litterfall C inputs across sites and surpassed the DOC export from associated forested headwater streams (1 to 16 g C m-2 y-1) suggesting terrestrial to aquatic interface processing. Historical climate and increased soil C inputs explain the greater DOC flux in the southern region. Even in years with comparable annual precipitation among regions the DOC flux differed by climate region. Furthermore, neither quantity nor form of precipitation could explain inter-annual differences in DOC flux within each region. Region specific relationships between precipitation and soil water flux instead suggest historical climate effects may impact soil water transport efficiency thereby controlling the regional variation in the DOC flux. As these forests are exposed to a warmer and wetter climate, DOC transport from organic soils will likely increase. Although precipitation changes will impact this C flux, longer-term climate effects impacting soil inputs, composition and structure of these forests will play an important role in controlling DOC transport in a warmer and wetter future.

Comparison of In-Person vs. Digital Climate Education Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, R. K.; Flora, J. A.; Saphir, M.

2017-12-01

In 2014, ACE (Alliance for Climate Education) evaluated the impact of its 45-minute live climate edutainment education program on the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of high school students with respect to climate change. The results showed gains in knowledge, increased engagement, as well as increased communication about climate change with number of students reporting talking about climate change with friends and family more than doubling. In 2016, ACE launched a digital version of its in-person edutainment education program, a 40-minute video version of the live program. This digital version, Our Climate Our Future (OCOF), has now been used by nearly 4,000 teachers nationwide and viewed by over 150,000 students. We experimentally tested the impact of the digital program (OCOF) compared to the live program and a control group. The experiment was conducted with 709 students in 27 classes at two North Carolina public high schools. Classes were assigned to one of three conditions: digital, live and control. In the digital version, students watched the 40-minute OCOF video featuring the same educator that presented the live program. In the live version, students received an identical 40-minute live presentation by an ACE staff educator The control group received neither treatment. When compared to controls, both programs were effective in positively increasing climate change knowledge, climate justice knowledge, perceived self-efficacy to make climate-friendly behavior changes, and beliefs about climate change (all statistically significant at or above P<.01). In the areas of hope that people can solve climate change and intent to change behavior, only the live program showed significant increases. In these two areas, it may be that an in-person experience is key to affecting change. In light of these positive results, ACE plans to increase the use of OCOF in schools across the country to assist teachers in their efforts to teach about climate change.

Comparison of In-Person vs. Digital Climate Education Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbar, A. D.; Elkins-Tanton, L. T.; Klug Boonstra, S.; Ben-Naim, D.

2016-12-01

In 2014, ACE (Alliance for Climate Education) evaluated the impact of its 45-minute live climate edutainment education program on the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of high school students with respect to climate change. The results showed gains in knowledge, increased engagement, as well as increased communication about climate change with number of students reporting talking about climate change with friends and family more than doubling. In 2016, ACE launched a digital version of its in-person edutainment education program, a 40-minute video version of the live program. This digital version, Our Climate Our Future (OCOF), has now been used by nearly 4,000 teachers nationwide and viewed by over 150,000 students. We experimentally tested the impact of the digital program (OCOF) compared to the live program and a control group. The experiment was conducted with 709 students in 27 classes at two North Carolina public high schools. Classes were assigned to one of three conditions: digital, live and control. In the digital version, students watched the 40-minute OCOF video featuring the same educator that presented the live program. In the live version, students received an identical 40-minute live presentation by an ACE staff educator The control group received neither treatment. When compared to controls, both programs were effective in positively increasing climate change knowledge, climate justice knowledge, perceived self-efficacy to make climate-friendly behavior changes, and beliefs about climate change (all statistically significant at or above P<.01). In the areas of hope that people can solve climate change and intent to change behavior, only the live program showed significant increases. In these two areas, it may be that an in-person experience is key to affecting change. In light of these positive results, ACE plans to increase the use of OCOF in schools across the country to assist teachers in their efforts to teach about climate change.

PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State U

Science.gov Websites

FAQ PRISM Climate Data The PRISM Climate Group gathers climate observations from a wide range of monitoring networks, applies sophisticated quality control measures, and develops spatial climate datasets to reveal short- and long-term climate patterns. The resulting datasets incorporate a variety of modeling

Family climates: family factors specific to disturbed eating and bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Laliberté, M; Boland, F J; Leichner, P

1999-09-01

More than a decade of research has characterized the families of individuals with bulimia and bulimia anorexia (Anorexia Nervosa, Binge/Purging Type) as less expressive, less cohesive, and experiencing more conflicts than normal control families. This two-part study investigated variables believed more directly related to disturbed eating and bulimia as contributing to a "family climate for eating disorders." In Study 1. a nonclinical sample of 324 women who had just left home for college and a sample of 121 mothers evaluated their families. Principal-components analyses revealed the same factor structure for both students and mothers, with Family Body Satisfaction, Family Social Appearance Orientation, and Family Achievement Emphasis loading together, representing the hypothesized family climate for eating disorders: the remaining variables loaded with the more traditional family process variables (conflict, cohesion, expressiveness), representing a more general family dysfunction. As predicted, the family climate for eating disorders factor score was a more powerful predictor of disturbed eating. Study 2 extended these findings into a clin ical population, examining whether the family climate for eating disorders variables would distinguish individuals with bulimia from both depressed and healthy controls. Groups of eating-disordered patients (n = 40) and depressed (n = 17) and healthy (n = 27) controls completed family measures. The eating-disordered group scored significantly higher on family climate variables than control groups. Family process variables distinguished clinical groups (depressed and eating disordered) from healthy controls, but not from one another. Controlling for depression removed group differences on family process variables, but family climate variables continued to distinguish the eating-disordered group from both control groups. Indications for further research are discussed.

The Influence of Effortful Control and Empathy on Perception of School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zorza, Juan P.; Marino, Julián; Mesas, Alberto Acosta

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive power of effortful control (EC) and empathy for perception of school climate. Self-report measures of EC, dispositional empathy, and perception of school climate were obtained for 398 students (204 females) aged 12 to 13. Sociometric status was peer-evaluated, and academic achievement was…

Moderating Effect of Negative Peer Group Climate on the Relation Between Men's Locus of Control and Aggression Toward Intimate Partners.

PubMed

Schmidt, Megan R; Lisco, Claire G; Parrott, Dominic J; Tharp, Andra T

2016-03-01

The present study sought to examine the interactive effects of an external locus of control and interaction in a negative peer group climate on men's perpetration of physical aggression and infliction of injury toward their female intimate partners. Participants were 206 heterosexual males recruited from the metro-Atlanta community who completed self-report measures of external locus of control, involvement in a negative peer group climate, and physical aggression and infliction of injury against intimate partners during the past 12 months. Negative peer group climate was conceptualized as a peer group that displays behavior which may instigate aggressive norms, attitudes, and behaviors. Results indicated that men with an external locus of control were more likely to perpetrate physical aggression toward and inflict injury on their intimate partners if they reported high, but not low, involvement in a negative peer group climate. These results extend current research suggesting external locus of control as a risk factor for intimate partner aggression by highlighting the impact of negative peer groups. Implications and future intervention research are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Perceptions of malaria control and prevention in an era of climate change: a cross-sectional survey among CDC staff in China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2017-03-31

Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000. A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff's knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change. A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness. This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.

Changes in Seasonal and Extreme Hydrologic Conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an Ensemble Regional Climate Simulation for the Mid-Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

This study examines an ensemble of climate change projections simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and downscaled with a region climate model (RCM) to 40 km spatial resolution for the western North America. One control and three ensemble future climate simulations were produced by the GCM following a business as usual scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions from 1995 to 2100. The RCM was used to downscale the GCM control simulation (1995-2015) and each ensemble future GCM climate (2040-2060) simulation. Analyses of the regional climate simulations for the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound showed a warming of 1.5-2oC and statisticallymore » insignificant changes in precipitation by the mid-century. Climate change has large impacts on snowpack (about 50% reduction) but relatively smaller impacts on the total runoff for the basin as a whole. However, climate change can strongly affect small watersheds such as those located in the transient snow zone, causing a higher likelihood of winter flooding as a higher percentage of precipitation falls in the form of rain rather than snow, and reduced streamflow in early summer. In addition, there are large changes in the monthly total runoff above the upper 1% threshold (or flood volume) from October through May, and the December flood volume of the future climate is 60% above the maximum monthly flood volume of the control climate. Uncertainty of the climate change projections, as characterized by the spread among the ensemble future climate simulations, is relatively small for the basin mean snowpack and runoff, but increases in smaller watersheds, especially in the transient snow zone, and associated with extreme events. This emphasizes the importance of characterizing uncertainty through ensemble simulations.« less

Instructional Climates in Preschool Children Who Are At-Risk. Part I: Object-Control Skill Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Leah E.; Goodway, Jacqueline D.

2009-01-01

Part I of this study examined the effect of two 9-week instructional climates (low autonomy [LA] and mastery motivational climate [MMC]) on object-control (OC) skill development in preschoolers (N = 117). Participants were randomly assigned to an LA, MMC, or comparison group. OC skills were assessed at pretest, posttest, and retention test with…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermalmore » advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.« less

Climate-driven thresholds for chemical weathering in postglacial soils of New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Jean L.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Vitousek, Peter M.

2016-09-01

Chemical weathering in soils dissolves and alters minerals, mobilizes metals, liberates nutrients to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and may modulate Earth's climate over geologic time scales. Climate-weathering relationships are often considered fundamental controls on the evolution of Earth's surface and biogeochemical cycles. However, surprisingly little consensus has emerged on if and how climate controls chemical weathering, and models and data from published literature often give contrasting correlations and predictions for how weathering rates and climate variables such as temperature or moisture are related. Here we combine insights gained from the different approaches, methods, and theory of the soil science, biogeochemistry, and geomorphology communities to tackle the fundamental question of how rainfall influences soil chemical properties. We explore climate-driven variations in weathering and soil development in young, postglacial soils of New Zealand, measuring soil elemental geochemistry along a large precipitation gradient (400-4700 mm/yr) across the Waitaki basin on Te Waipounamu, the South Island. Our data show a strong climate imprint on chemical weathering in these young soils. This climate control is evidenced by rapid nonlinear changes along the gradient in total and exchangeable cations in soils and in the increased movement and redistribution of metals with rainfall. The nonlinear behavior provides insight into why climate-weathering relationships may be elusive in some landscapes. These weathering thresholds also have significant implications for how climate may influence landscape evolution and the release of rock-derived nutrients to ecosystems, as landscapes that transition to wetter climates across this threshold may weather and deplete rapidly.

Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

PubMed

Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

Chicken barn climate and hazardous volatile compounds control using simple linear regression and PID

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, A. H.; Bakar, M. A. A.; Shukor, S. A. A.; Saad, F. S. A.; Kamis, M. S.; Mustafa, M. H.; Khalid, N. S.

2016-07-01

The hazardous volatile compounds from chicken manure in chicken barn are potentially to be a health threat to the farm animals and workers. Ammonia (NH3) and hydrogen sulphide (H2S) produced in chicken barn are influenced by climate changes. The Electronic Nose (e-nose) is used for the barn's air, temperature and humidity data sampling. Simple Linear Regression is used to identify the correlation between temperature-humidity, humidity-ammonia and ammonia-hydrogen sulphide. MATLAB Simulink software was used for the sample data analysis using PID controller. Results shows that the performance of PID controller using the Ziegler-Nichols technique can improve the system controller to control climate in chicken barn.

Safeguarding Canadian Arctic Sovereignty Against Conventional Threats

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

The effects of climate change as well as national interests over control of vast amounts of natural resources in the Arctic seem to be...Canadian Sovereignty, Climate Change, Military Capabilities for Arctic Operations 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18...THREATS, by MAJ Dave Abboud, Canadian Forces, 95 pages. The effects of climate change as well as national interests over control of vast amounts of

Compare Vehicle Technologies | Transportation Research | NREL

Science.gov Websites

electric car diagramming energy storage, power electronics, and climate control components, as well as storage, power electronics, and climate control components, as well as energy flow among components. 3-D control components, as well as energy flow among components. 3-D illustration of electric car diagramming

Combined universal and selective prevention for adolescent alcohol use: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Teesson, M; Newton, N C; Slade, T; Carragher, N; Barrett, E L; Champion, K E; Kelly, E V; Nair, N K; Stapinski, L A; Conrod, P J

2017-07-01

No existing models of alcohol prevention concurrently adopt universal and selective approaches. This study aims to evaluate the first combined universal and selective approach to alcohol prevention. A total of 26 Australian schools with 2190 students (mean age: 13.3 years) were randomized to receive: universal prevention (Climate Schools); selective prevention (Preventure); combined prevention (Climate Schools and Preventure; CAP); or health education as usual (control). Primary outcomes were alcohol use, binge drinking and alcohol-related harms at 6, 12 and 24 months. Climate, Preventure and CAP students demonstrated significantly lower growth in their likelihood to drink and binge drink, relative to controls over 24 months. Preventure students displayed significantly lower growth in their likelihood to experience alcohol harms, relative to controls. While adolescents in both the CAP and Climate groups demonstrated slower growth in drinking compared with adolescents in the control group over the 2-year study period, CAP adolescents demonstrated faster growth in drinking compared with Climate adolescents. Findings support universal, selective and combined approaches to alcohol prevention. Particularly novel are the findings of no advantage of the combined approach over universal or selective prevention alone.

Forest Influences on Climate and Water Resources at the Landscape to Regional Scale

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu

2013-01-01

Although it is well known that climate controls the distribution, productivity and functioning of vegetation on earth, our knowledge about the role of forests in regulating regional climate and water resources is lacking. The studies on climate-forests feedbacks have received increasing attention from the climate change and ecohydrology research communities. The goal...

A computer network with scada and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gieling, Th. H.; van Meurs, W. Th. M.; Janssen, H. J. J.

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra opportunities to climate control in greenhouses.

Fantasy and Reality in the History of Weather and Climate Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, J. R.

2005-12-01

This presentation examines the history of large-scale weather and climate engineering since 1840, with special reference to imaginative and speculative literature and with special relevance to ethical and policy issues. Ultimate control of the weather and climate embodies both our wildest fantasies and our greatest fears. Fantasy often informs reality (and vice-versa). NASA managers know this well, as do Trekkies. The best science fiction authors typically build from the current state of a field to construct futuristic scenarios that reveal and explore the human condition. Scientists as well often venture into flights of fancy. Though not widely documented, the fantasy-reality axis is also a prominent aspect of the history of the geosciences. James Espy's proposal in the 1840s to enhance precipitation by lighting huge fires, thus stimulating convective updrafts, preceded the widespread charlatanism of the rain-makers, or so-called "pluviculturalists," in the western U.S. One hundred years later, promising discoveries in "cloud seeding" by Irving Langmuir and his associates at the General Electric Corporation rapidly devolved into unsupportable proposals and questionable practices by military and commercial rain-makers seeking to control the weather. During the Cold War, Soviet engineers also promoted a chilling vision (to Westerners) of global climate control. Recently, rather immodest proposals to "fix" a climate system perceived to be out of control have received wide circulation. In 2003 the U.S. Pentagon released a report recommending that the government should "explore geo-engineering options that control the climate." In 2004 a symposium in Cambridge, England set out to "identify, debate, and evaluate" possible, but highly controversial options for the design and construction of engineering projects for the management and mitigation of global climate change. This talk will locate the history of weather and climate modification within a long tradition of imaginative and speculative literature involving "control" of nature. The goal is the articulation of a perspective fully informed by history and the initiation of a dialogue, stimulated by this approach, that uncovers otherwise hidden values, ethical implications, social tensions, and public apprehensions.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Austrian Daily Climate Data Rescue and Quality Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurkovic, A.; Lipa, W.; Adler, S.; Albenberger, J.; Lechner, W.; Swietli, R.; Vossberg, I.; Zehetner, S.

2010-09-01

Checked climate datasets are a "conditio sine qua non" for all projects that are relevant for environment and climate. In the framework of climate change studies and analysis it is essential to work with quality controlled and trustful data. Furthermore these datasets are used as input for various simulation models. In regard to investigations of extreme events, like strong precipitation periods, drought periods and similar ones we need climate data in high temporal resolution (at least in daily resolution). Because of the historical background - during Second World War the majority of our climate sheets were sent to Berlin, where the historical sheets were destroyed by a bomb attack and so important information got lost - only several climate sheets, mostly duplicates, before 1939 are available and stored in our climate data archive. In 1970 the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics in Vienna started a first attempt to digitize climate data by means of punch cards. With the introduction of a routinely climate data quality control in 1984 we can speak of high-class-checked daily data (finally checked data, quality flag 6). Our group is working on the processing of digitization and quality control of the historical data for the period 1872 to 1983 for 18 years. Since 2007 it was possible to intensify the work (processes) in the framework of an internal project, namely Austrian Climate Data Rescue and Quality Control. The aim of this initiative was - and still is - to supply daily data in an outstanding good and uniform quality. So this project is a kind of pre-project for all scientific projects which are working with daily data. In addition to routine quality checks (that are running since 1984) using the commercial Bull Software we are testing our data with additional open source software, namely ProClim.db. By the use of this spatial and statistical test procedure, the elements air temperature and precipitation - for several sites in Carinthia - could already be checked, flagged and corrected. Checking the output (so called- error list) of ProClim is very time consuming and needs trained staff; however, in last instance it is necessary. Due to the guideline "Your archive is your business card for quality" the sub-project NEW ARCHIVE was initialized and started at the end of 2009. Our paper archive contains historical, up to 150 year-old, climate sheets that are valuable cultural assets. Unfortunately the storage of these historical and actual data treasures turned out to be more than suboptimal (insufficient protection against dust, dirt, humidity and light incidence). Because of this fact a concept for a new storage system and archive database was generated and already partly realized. In a nutshell this presentation shows on the one hand the importance of recovering historical climate sheets for climate change research - even if it is exhausting and time consuming - and gives on the other hand a general overview of used quality control procedures at our institute.

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

Cultural differences in crewmembers and mission control personnel during two space station programs.

PubMed

Boyd, Jennifer E; Kanas, Nick A; Salnitskiy, Vyacheslav P; Gushin, Vadim I; Saylor, Stephanie A; Weiss, Daniel S; Marmar, Charles R

2009-06-01

Cultural differences among crewmembers and mission control personnel can affect long-duration space missions. We examine three cultural contrasts: national (American vs. Russian); occupational (crewmembers vs. mission control personnel); and organizational [Mir space station vs. International Space Station (ISS)]. The Mir sample included 5 American astronauts, 8 Russian cosmonauts, and 42 American and 16 Russian mission control personnel. The ISS sample included 8 astronauts, 9 cosmonauts, and 108 American and 20 Russian mission control personnel. Subjects responded to mood and group climate questions on a weekly basis. The ISS sample also completed a culture and language questionnaire. Crewmembers had higher scores on cultural sophistication than mission control personnel, especially American mission control. Cultural sophistication was not related to mood or social climate. Russian subjects reported greater language flexibility than Americans. Crewmembers reported better mood states than mission control, but both were in the healthy range. There were several Russian-American differences in social climate, with the most robust being higher work pressure among Americans. Russian-American social climate differences were also found in analyses of crew only. Analyses showed Mir-ISS differences in social climate among crew but not in the full sample. We found evidence for national, occupational, and organizational cultural differences. The findings from the Mir space station were essentially replicated on the ISS. Alterations to the ISS to make it a more user-friendly environment have still not resolved the issue of high levels of work pressure among the American crew.

The interactions between vegetation and climate seasonality, topography on different time scales under the Budyko framework: case study in China's Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Ning, T.; Shen, H.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

Vegetation, climate seasonality and topography are the main impact factors controlling the water and heat balance over a catchment, and they are usually empirically formulated into the controlling parameter in Budyko model. However, their interactions on different time scales have not been fully addressed. Taking 30 catchments in China's Loess Plateau as an example, on annual scale, vegetation coverage was found poorly correlated with climate seasonality index; therefore, they could be both parameterized into the Budyko model. On the long-term scale, vegetation coverage tended to have close relationships with topographic conditions and climate seasonality, which was confirmed by the multi-collinearity problems; in that sense, vegetation information could fit the controlling parameter exclusively. Identifying the dominant controlling factors over different time scales, this study simplified the empirical parameterization of the Budyko formula. Though the above relationships further investigation over the other regions/catchments.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

PubMed

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Nonlinear Adaptive PID Control for Greenhouse Environment Based on RBF Network

PubMed Central

Zeng, Songwei; Hu, Haigen; Xu, Lihong; Li, Guanghui

2012-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid control strategy, combining Radial Basis Function (RBF) network with conventional proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controllers, for the greenhouse climate control. A model of nonlinear conservation laws of enthalpy and matter between numerous system variables affecting the greenhouse climate is formulated. RBF network is used to tune and identify all PID gain parameters online and adaptively. The presented Neuro-PID control scheme is validated through simulations of set-point tracking and disturbance rejection. We compare the proposed adaptive online tuning method with the offline tuning scheme that employs Genetic Algorithm (GA) to search the optimal gain parameters. The results show that the proposed strategy has good adaptability, strong robustness and real-time performance while achieving satisfactory control performance for the complex and nonlinear greenhouse climate control system, and it may provide a valuable reference to formulate environmental control strategies for actual application in greenhouse production. PMID:22778587

Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes

Treesearch

S.F. Dymond; A.W. D' Amato; Randy Kolka; P.V. Bolstad; Stephen Sebestyen; J.B. Bradford

2016-01-01

Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climate–growth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides...

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

Treesearch

Chuixiang Yi; Daniel Ricciuto; Runze Li; John Wolbeck; Xiyan Xu; Mats Nilsson; John Frank; William J. Massman

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes...

Getting the Mold Out.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odle, R. Duane; Bieghler, Kelley

2001-01-01

Discusses how primary air systems for school climate control can help reduce maintenance costs, possesses a lower initial cost, provides good indoor air quality, and can work for all schools undergoing renovation. Details of one community school's climate control renovation are highlighted. (GR)

Aggression and violence around the world: A model of CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans (CLASH).

PubMed

Van Lange, Paul A M; Rinderu, Maria I; Bushman, Brad J

2017-01-01

Worldwide there are substantial differences within and between countries in aggression and violence. Although there are various exceptions, a general rule is that aggression and violence increase as one moves closer to the equator, which suggests the important role of climate differences. While this pattern is robust, theoretical explanations for these large differences in aggression and violence within countries and around the world are lacking. Most extant explanations focus on the influence of average temperature as a factor that triggers aggression (The General Aggression Model), or the notion that warm temperature allows for more social interaction situations (Routine Activity Theory) in which aggression is likely to unfold. We propose a new model, CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans (CLASH), that helps us to understand differences within and between countries in aggression and violence in terms of differences in climate. Lower temperatures, and especially larger degrees of seasonal variation in climate, call for individuals and groups to adopt a slower life history strategy, a greater focus on the future (vs. present), and a stronger focus on self-control. The CLASH model further outlines that slow life strategy, future orientation, and strong self-control are important determinants of inhibiting aggression and violence. We also discuss how CLASH differs from other recently developed models that emphasize climate differences for understanding conflict. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and societal importance of climate in shaping individual and societal differences in aggression and violence.

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

2017-04-01

Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

Self-esteem and self-efficacy; perceived parenting and family climate; and depression in university students.

PubMed

Oliver, J M; Paull, J C

1995-07-01

This study examined associations among self-esteem and self-efficacy; perceived unfavorable Parental Rearing Style (perceived PRS) and unfavorable family climate in the family of origin; and depression in undergraduates still in frequent contact with their families (N = 186). Unfavorable perceived PRS and family climate were construed as "affectionless control," in which parents and family provide little affection, but excessive control. Constructs were measured by the Self-Esteem Inventory, the Self-Efficacy Scale, the Child Report of Parental Behavior Inventory, the Family Environment Scale, and the Beck Inventory. Perceived "affectionless control" in both PRS and family climate accounted for about 13% of the variance in self-esteem, self-efficacy, and depression. Neither introversion nor depression mediated the relation between family socialization and self-esteem.

A computer network with SCADA and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses.

PubMed

Gieling ThH; van Meurs WTh; Janssen, H J

1996-01-01

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra oppurtunities to climate contol in greenhouses.

The effect of family climate on risky driving of young novices: the moderating role of attitude and locus of control.

PubMed

Carpentier, Aline; Brijs, Kris; Declercq, Katrien; Brijs, Tom; Daniels, Stijn; Wets, Geert

2014-12-01

The aim of the study was to examine the relative importance of young novice drivers' family climate on their driving behavior. A sample of young novice drivers (N=171) between the age of 17 and 24, who held their permanent (or temporary) driver's license for no longer than one year, participated. The questionnaire included items related to the participants' family climate, 3 socio-cognitive determinants (i.e., attitude, locus of control and social norm), and risky driving behaviors. We expected both family climate and the socio-cognitive determinants to exert a direct effect on risky driving. Furthermore we hypothesized that the socio-cognitive determinants would moderate the impact of family climate on risky driving. The results showed that the effect of family climate on risky driving only originated from one single factor (i.e., noncommitment). Besides that, the results confirmed the importance of the three socio-cognitive determinants to the degree that attitude, locus of control, and social norm significantly predicted the self-reported risky driving. In line of what we hypothesized, attitude moderated the relationship between noncommitment and risky driving. Lastly, we found an unexpected three-way interaction which indicated that locus of control moderated the relation between noncommitment and risky driving only when young drivers' attitude was risk-supportive. We recommend scholars and practitioners to take into account the interaction between external sources of influence (such as an individual's family climate) and more personally oriented dispositions (such as an individual's attitude, social norm and locus of control) when trying to explain and change young novices' risky driving. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate and different management strategies on Aedes aegypti breeding sites: a longitudinal survey in Brasília (DF, Brazil).

PubMed

Favier, Charly; Degallier, Nicolas; Vilarinhos, Paulo de Tarso Ribeiro; de Carvalho, Maria do Socorro Laurentino; Yoshizawa, Maria Amelia Cavalcanti; Knox, Monique Britto

2006-07-01

To determine the influence of climate and of environmental vector control with or without insecticide on Aedes aegypti larval indices and pupae density. An 18-month longitudinal survey of infestation of Ae. aegypti immature stages was conducted for the 1015 residences (premises) of Vila Planalto, an area of Brasilia where the Breteau Index was about 40 before the study. This area was divided into five zones: a control zone with environmental management alone and four zones with insecticide treatment (methoprene, Bti, temephos). We tested for significant differences between infestation levels in the control and insecticide-treated areas, for relationships between climatic variables and larval indices, and to determine risk factors of infestation for certain types of premises and containers. Environmental vector control strategies dramatically decreased infestation in the five areas. No significant differences could be detected between control strategies with insecticide and without. Some premises and container types were particularly suitable for breeding. The influence of climate on the emergence of Ae. aegypti adults for the area is described. In a moderately infested area such as Brasilia, insecticides do not improve environmental vector control. Rather, infestations could be further reduced by focusing on residences and containers particularly at risk. The nature of the link between climate and larval population should be investigated in larger-scale studies before being used in forecasting models.

Controlled release repellent formulations on human volunteers under three climatic regimens.

PubMed

Gupta, R K; Rutledge, L C

1991-09-01

Two controlled-release repellent formulations containing 33% (3M) and 42% (Biotek) deet and an Army repellent containing 75% deet were evaluated in 3 different climatic regimens (tropical forested, tropical open and basic hot environments). The 3 repellents provided similar protection for different time periods after application under all 3 climates against Aedes aegypti, Ae. taeniorhynchus and Anopheles stephensi whereas there was no difference in protection period against An. albimanus.

Experimental climate change weakens the insurance effect of biodiversity.

PubMed

Eklöf, Johan S; Alsterberg, Christian; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina; Wood, Hannah L; Gamfeldt, Lars

2012-08-01

Ecosystems are simultaneously affected by biodiversity loss and climate change, but we know little about how these factors interact. We predicted that climate warming and CO (2) -enrichment should strengthen trophic cascades by reducing the relative efficiency of predation-resistant herbivores, if herbivore consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. This weakens the insurance effect of herbivore diversity. We tested this prediction using experimental ocean warming and acidification in seagrass mesocosms. Meta-analyses of published experiments first indicated that consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. The experiment then showed that three common herbivores together controlled macroalgae and facilitated seagrass dominance, regardless of climate change. When the predation-vulnerable herbivore was excluded in normal conditions, the two resistant herbivores maintained top-down control. Under warming, however, increased algal growth outstripped control by herbivores and the system became algal-dominated. Consequently, climate change can reduce the relative efficiency of resistant herbivores and weaken the insurance effect of biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

The CLIMATE schools combined study: a cluster randomised controlled trial of a universal Internet-based prevention program for youth substance misuse, depression and anxiety.

PubMed

Teesson, Maree; Newton, Nicola C; Slade, Tim; Chapman, Cath; Allsop, Steve; Hides, Leanne; McBride, Nyanda; Mewton, Louise; Tonks, Zoe; Birrell, Louise; Brownhill, Louise; Andrews, Gavin

2014-02-05

Anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders account for three quarters of the disability attributed to mental disorders and frequently co-occur. While programs for the prevention and reduction of symptoms associated with (i) substance use and (ii) mental health disorders exist, research is yet to determine if a combined approach is more effective. This paper describes the study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention, a universal approach to preventing substance use and mental health problems among adolescents. Participants will consist of approximately 8400 students aged 13 to 14-years-old from 84 secondary schools in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, Australia. The schools will be cluster randomised to one of four groups; (i) CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention; (ii) CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use; (iii) CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health, or (iv) Control (Health and Physical Education as usual). The primary outcomes of the trial will be the uptake and harmful use of alcohol and other drugs, mental health symptomatology and anxiety, depression and substance use knowledge. Secondary outcomes include substance use related harms, self-efficacy to resist peer pressure, general disability, and truancy. The link between personality and substance use will also be examined. Compared to students who receive the universal CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use, or CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health or the Control condition (who received usual Health and Physical Education), we expect students who receive the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention to show greater delays to the initiation of substance use, reductions in substance use and mental health symptoms, and increased substance use and mental health knowledge. This trial is registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials registry, ACTRN12613000723785.

The effect of vaccination coverage and climate on Japanese encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia.

PubMed

Impoinvil, Daniel E; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P; Baylis, Matthew; Solomon, Tom

2013-01-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.

Safety climate and culture: Integrating psychological and systems perspectives.

PubMed

Casey, Tristan; Griffin, Mark A; Flatau Harrison, Huw; Neal, Andrew

2017-07-01

Safety climate research has reached a mature stage of development, with a number of meta-analyses demonstrating the link between safety climate and safety outcomes. More recently, there has been interest from systems theorists in integrating the concept of safety culture and to a lesser extent, safety climate into systems-based models of organizational safety. Such models represent a theoretical and practical development of the safety climate concept by positioning climate as part of a dynamic work system in which perceptions of safety act to constrain and shape employee behavior. We propose safety climate and safety culture constitute part of the enabling capitals through which organizations build safety capability. We discuss how organizations can deploy different configurations of enabling capital to exert control over work systems and maintain safe and productive performance. We outline 4 key strategies through which organizations to reconcile the system control problems of promotion versus prevention, and stability versus flexibility. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon

Treesearch

D.E. Schindler; X. Augerot; E. Fleishman; N.J. Mantua; B. Riddell; M. Ruckelshaus; J. Seeb; M. Webster

2008-01-01

As climate change intensifies, there is increasing interest in developing models that reduce uncertainties in projections of global climate and refine these projections to finer spatial scales. Forecasts of climate impacts on ecosystems are far more challenging and their uncertainties even larger because of a limited understanding of physical controls on biological...

The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

2010-01-01

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight.

The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

2010-04-01

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low-sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogenaities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight.

The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006-2012.

PubMed

Bennett, Adam; Yukich, Josh; Miller, John M; Keating, Joseph; Moonga, Hawela; Hamainza, Busiku; Kamuliwo, Mulakwa; Andrade-Pacheco, Ricardo; Vounatsou, Penelope; Steketee, Richard W; Eisele, Thomas P

2016-08-05

Four malaria indicator surveys (MIS) were conducted in Zambia between 2006 and 2012 to evaluate malaria control scale-up. Nationally, coverage of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) increased over this period, while parasite prevalence in children 1-59 months decreased dramatically between 2006 and 2008, but then increased from 2008 to 2010. We assessed the relative effects of vector control coverage and climate variability on malaria parasite prevalence over this period. Nationally-representative MISs were conducted in April-June of 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 to collect household-level information on malaria control interventions such as IRS, ITN ownership and use, and child parasite prevalence by microscopic examination of blood smears. We fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to assess the association between IRS and ITN coverage and climate variability and malaria parasite prevalence. We created predictions of the spatial distribution of malaria prevalence at each time point and compared results of varying IRS, ITN, and climate inputs to assess their relative contributions to changes in prevalence. Nationally, the proportion of households owning an ITN increased from 37.8 % in 2006 to 64.3 % in 2010 and 68.1 % in 2012, with substantial heterogeneity sub-nationally. The population-adjusted predicted child malaria parasite prevalence decreased from 19.6 % in 2006 to 10.4 % in 2008, but rose to 15.3 % in 2010 and 13.5 % in 2012. We estimated that the majority of this prevalence increase at the national level between 2008 and 2010 was due to climate effects on transmission, although there was substantial heterogeneity at the provincial level in the relative contribution of changing climate and ITN availability. We predict that if climate factors preceding the 2010 survey were the same as in 2008, the population-adjusted prevalence would have fallen to 9.9 % nationally. These results suggest that a combination of climate factors and reduced intervention coverage in parts of the country contributed to both the reduction and rebound in malaria parasite prevalence. Unusual rainfall patterns, perhaps related to moderate El Niño conditions, may have contributed to this variation. Zambia has demonstrated considerable success in scaling up vector control. This analysis highlights the importance of accounting for climate variability when using cross-sectional data for evaluation of malaria control efforts.

Global Air Quality and Climate Impacts of Mitigating Short-lived Climate Pollution in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, K.; Unger, N.; Heyes, C.; Kiesewetter, G.; Klimont, Z.; Schoepp, W.; Wagner, F.

2014-12-01

China is a major emitter of harmful air pollutants, including the short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and their precursors. Implementation of pollution control technologies provides a mechanism for simultaneously protecting human and ecosystem health and achieving near-term climate co-benefits; however, predicting the outcomes of technical and policy interventions is challenging because the SLCPs participate in both climate warming and cooling and share many common emission sources. Here, we present the results of a combined regional integrated assessment and global climate modeling study aimed at quantifying the near-term climate and air quality co-benefits of selective control of Chinese air pollution emissions. Results from IIASA's Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model indicate that methane emission reductions make up > 75% of possible CO2-equivalent emission reductions of the SLCPs and their precursors in China in 2030. A multi-pollutant emission reduction scenario incorporating the 2030 Chinese pollution control measures with the highest potential for future climate impact is applied to the NASA ModelE2 - Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (NASA ModelE2-YIBs) global carbon - chemistry - climate model to assess the regional and long-range impacts of Chinese SLCP mitigation measures. Using model simulations that incorporate dynamic methane emissions and photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emissions, we quantify the impacts of Chinese reductions of the short-lived air pollutants on radiative forcing and on surface ozone and particulate air pollution. Present-day modeled methane mole fractions are evaluated against SCIAMACHY methane columns and NOAA ESRL/GMD surface flask measurements.

Disentangling climatic versus biotic drivers of tree range constraints: Broad scale tradeoffs between climate and competion rarely explain local range boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, L. D. L.; Hillerislambers, J.

2016-12-01

Accurate prediction of climatically-driven range shifts requires knowledge of the dominant forces constraining species ranges, because climatically controlled range boundaries will likely behave differently from biotically controlled range boundaries in a changing climate. Yet the roles of climatic constraints (due to species physiological tolerance) versus biotic constraints (caused by species interactions) on geographic ranges are largely unknown, infusing large uncertainty into projections of future range shifts. Plant species ranges across strong climatic gradients such as elevation gradients are often assumed to represent a tradeoff between climatic constraints on the harsh side of the range and biotic constraints (often competitive constraints) on the climatically benign side. To test this assumption, we collected tree cores from across the elevational range of the three dominant tree species inhabiting each of three climatically disparate mountain slopes and assessed climatic versus competitive constraints on growth at each species' range margins. Across all species and mountains, we found evidence for a tradeoff between climatic and competitve growth constraints. We also found that some individual species did show an apparent trade-off between a climatic constraint at one range margin and a competitive constraint at the other. However, even these simple elevation gradients resulted in complex interactions between temperature, moisture, and competitive constraints such that a climate-competition tradeoff did not explain range constraints for many species. Our results suggest that tree species can be constrained by a simple trade-off between climate and competition, but that the intricacies of real world climate gradients complicate the application of this theory even in apparently harsh environments, such as near high elevation tree line.

Climate as an agent of change in forest landscapes

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2014-01-01

Climate is the primary force that controls forest composition and the broad-scale distribution of forests. The climate has always been changing, but the changes now underway are different—they are faster and they are intermingled with other disturbances promoted by increasing human pressures. The projected climate change during the twenty-first century will...

Multi-Objective Control Optimization for Greenhouse Environment Using Evolutionary Algorithms

PubMed Central

Hu, Haigen; Xu, Lihong; Wei, Ruihua; Zhu, Bingkun

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the issue of tuning the Proportional Integral and Derivative (PID) controller parameters for a greenhouse climate control system using an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) based on multiple performance measures such as good static-dynamic performance specifications and the smooth process of control. A model of nonlinear thermodynamic laws between numerous system variables affecting the greenhouse climate is formulated. The proposed tuning scheme is tested for greenhouse climate control by minimizing the integrated time square error (ITSE) and the control increment or rate in a simulation experiment. The results show that by tuning the gain parameters the controllers can achieve good control performance through step responses such as small overshoot, fast settling time, and less rise time and steady state error. Besides, it can be applied to tuning the system with different properties, such as strong interactions among variables, nonlinearities and conflicting performance criteria. The results implicate that it is a quite effective and promising tuning method using multi-objective optimization algorithms in the complex greenhouse production. PMID:22163927

Adolescent depression: social network and family climate--a case-control study.

PubMed

Olsson, G I; Nordström, M L; Arinell, H; von Knorring, A L

1999-02-01

In a study of a total high-school population, 2300 students aged 16-17 years were screened for depression (BDI, CES-DC). Those with a self-evaluation indicating depression, together with controls matched for sex, age, and class were interviewed (DICA-R-A). The 177 pairs, where both individuals were interviewed and the control had no lifetime diagnosis of depression, were analysed in the form of paired differences for psychosocial factors and compared within diagnostic groups. The psychosocial factors were measured with the ISSI subscales and six attitude questions about family climate (KSP). Adolescents with an episode of major depression during part of the last year did not differ from their controls. Those with long-lasting depressive symptoms, i.e. dysthymia with or without episodes of major depression, had a more limited social interaction and were not satisfied with it. They also evaluated their family climate and attachment network as being more inadequate than did their controls. Depressed adolescents with comorbid conduct disorder had a more negative evaluation of availability and adequacy of both social interaction and attachment network than their controls. This group had a very negative view of their family climate. Since this is a case-control study conclusions cannot be drawn about cause and effect.

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest.

PubMed

Macias Fauria, Marc; Johnson, E A

2008-07-12

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire-climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire-climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire-climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Partitioning of Precipitation over Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padrón, Ryan S.; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Greve, Peter; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Long-term mean Precipitation (P) over land is partitioned into runoff (R) and evapotranspiration (ET). The aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential ET and P, constitutes the first order control of this partitioning (i.e. ET/P) within Budyko's framework. However, second order controls of ET/P can be significant, and their understanding remains a fundamental challenge. This study therefore introduces a new global observation-based dataset for the long-term mean partitioning of P into ET and R in approximately 2000 catchments, which is obtained from a systematic examination of 170 peer-reviewed studies. The new dataset serves as a basis to improve our understanding of these second order controls around the world. A list of 22 indicators of second order controls of ET/P are identified from the literature, and tested for significance using the new dataset. Results reveal that (i) climate type is a dominant control of ET/P, and additional controls vary with climatic region; (ii) climate characteristics and catchment slope dominate over other catchment controls—the phase shift between the seasonal cycle of P and potential ET appears as an important index across all climate types; (iii) despite the high attention that vegetation-related indices receive as controls of ET/P, they were found to be less important and not always significant; and (iv) the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is the most important second order control in regions with snow climate. The process-related insights from this study about the partitioning of P are a valuable asset for model development, watershed management, and the understanding of future water availability around the globe.

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

PubMed Central

Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion. PMID:29576954

Climate vs. carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-02-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness; CO2 availability, in turn, constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence CO2 availability, the links between atmospheric CO2 and biomass burning are not well known. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to CO2 increase, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes in biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed biases in contemporary biome-average values. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux was 70 to 80% lower at the LGM than in PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) however yielded unrealistic results, with global and Northern Hemisphere biomass burning fluxes greater than in the pre-industrial climate. Using the PI CO2 concentration increased the modelled LGM biomass burning fluxes for all climate models and latitudinal bands to between four and ten times their values under LGM CO2 concentration. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on productivity and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Active Climate Control Seats on Energy Use, Fuel Use, and CO2 Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P; Titov, Eugene V

A project was developed through collaboration between Gentherm and NREL to determine the impact of climate control seats for light-duty vehicles in the United States. The project used a combination of experimentation and analysis, with experimental results providing critical input to the analysis process. First, outdoor stationary vehicle testing was performed at NREL's facility in Golden, CO using multiple occupants. Two pre-production Ford Focus electric vehicles were used for testing; one containing a standard inactive seat and the second vehicle containing a Gentherm climate control seat. Multiple maximum cool-down and steady-state cooling tests were performed in late summer conditions. Themore » two vehicles were used to determine the increase in cabin temperature when using the climate control seat in comparison to the baseline vehicle cabin temperature with a standard seat at the equivalent occupant whole-body sensation. The experiments estimated that on average, the climate control seats allowed for a 2.61 degrees Celsius increase in vehicle cabin temperature at equivalent occupant body sensation compared to the baseline vehicle. The increased cabin air temperature along with their measured energy usage were then used as inputs to the national analysis process. The national analysis process was constructed from full vehicle cabin, HVAC, and propulsion models previously developed by NREL. In addition, three representative vehicle platforms, vehicle usage patterns, and vehicle registration weighted environmental data were integrated into the analysis process. Both the baseline vehicle and the vehicle with climate control seats were simulated, using the experimentally determined cabin temperature offset of 2.61degrees Celsius and added seat energy as inputs to the climate control seat vehicle model. The U.S. composite annual fuel use savings for the climate control seats over the baseline A/C system was determined to be 5.1 gallons of gasoline per year per vehicle, corresponding to 4.0 grams of CO2/mile savings. Finally, the potential impact of 100 percent adoption of climate control seats on U.S. light-duty fleet A/C fuel use was calculated to be 1.3 billion gallons of gasoline annually with a corresponding CO2 emissions reduction of 12.7 million tons. Direct comparison of the impact of the CCS to the ventilated seat off-cycle credit was not possible because the NREL analysis calculated a combined car/truck savings and the baseline A/C CO2 emissions were higher than EPA. To enable comparison, the CCS national A/C CO2 emissions were split into car/truck components and the ventilated seat credit was scaled up. The split CO2 emissions savings due to the CCS were 3.5 g/mi for a car and 4.4 g/mi for a truck. The CCS saved an additional 2.0 g/mi and 2.5 g/mi over the adjusted ventilated seat credit for a car and truck, respectively.« less

Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

Man-Made Climatic Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landsberg, Helmut E.

1970-01-01

Reviews environmental studies which show that national climatic fluctuations vary over a wide range. Solar radiation, earth temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric gases and suspended particulates are discussed in relation to urban and extraurban effects. Local weather modifications and attempts at climate control by man seem to have substantial…

Prevention and Treatment of Mold in Library Collections with an Emphasis on Tropical Climates: A Ramp Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood Lee, Mary

This study focuses on the prevention and basic treatment of recurring mold growth in tropical climates where library-wide environmental control is not always possible. The introduction discusses major climatic groups; the effects of climate on specific materials found in library resources; and the range of options for modifying the environment.…

VEMAP phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Timothy G.F. Kittel; Nan. A. Rosenbloom; J.A. Royle; C. Daly; W.P. Gibson; H.H. Fisher; P. Thornton; D.N. Yates; S. Aulenbach; C. Kaufman; R. McKeown; Dominque Bachelet; David S. Schimel

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the...

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Capalbo, Susan M.; Houston, Laurie L.; Glick, Patty

2013-01-01

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R.

2017-11-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

Perceived School Climate and Chinese Adolescents' Suicidal Ideation and Suicide Attempts: The Mediating Role of Sleep Quality.

PubMed

Li, Dongping; Bao, Zhenzhou; Li, Xian; Wang, Yanhui

2016-02-01

School factors play important roles in adolescent suicide. However, little is known about how school climate is associated with adolescent suicide. This study examined the relationship between perceived school climate and adolescent suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, and whether these relations were explained by adolescent sleep quality. A total of 1529 Chinese adolescents (mean age = 14.74 years; 52% boys) participated in the study. They provided self-report data on control variables, perceived school climate, sleep quality, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempts. After controlling for sex, age, family structure, socioeconomic status, and parent-adolescent attachment, we found that perceived school climate negatively predicted adolescent suicidal ideation (odds ratio [OR] = 0.66, p < .001) and suicide attempts (OR = 0.72, p < .001). Moreover, perceived school climate positively predicated adolescent sleep quality (β = 0.13, p < .001), which in turn, negatively predicted adolescent suicidal ideation (OR = 0.75, p < .001) and suicide attempts (OR = 0.76, p < .001). These findings, although cross-sectional, indicate that perceived school climate plays an important role in adolescent suicidality. Moreover, the relation between perceived school climate and adolescent suicidality was largely mediated by adolescent sleep quality. © 2016, American School Health Association.

Social Skills and Family Climate of Behaviorally Disordered Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Margalit, Malka; And Others

1988-01-01

The social skills and family climate of 53 Israeli behaviorally disordered adolescents were compared to 56 nondisabled controls. Subjects viewed themselves as socially adequate, but viewed their skills as highly interrelated, whereas controls revealed a more differential concept. Subjects' teachers viewed them as less socially competent than…

76 FR 13973 - United States Warehouse Act; Processed Agricultural Products Licensing Agreement

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-15

... license for the processed agricultural products that are stored in climate controlled, cooler, and freezer..., and dry beans. Warehouse operators voluntarily agree to be licensed, observe the rules for licensing... program for processed agricultural products that are stored in climate controlled, cooler, and freezer...

Controlling vector-borne disease and adapting to climate change with novel research on disease forecasting to target new vector control materials and technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Population growth, frontier agricultural expansion, and urbanization transform the landscape and the surrounding ecosystem, affecting climate and interactions between animals and humans, and significantly influencing the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of malaria, dengue and other ...

Vulnerability of Permafrost Soil Carbon to Climate Warming: Evaluating Controls on Microbial Community Composition

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Abstract: Despite the fact that permafrost soils contain up to half of the carbon (C) in terrestrial pools, we have a poor understanding of the controls on decomposition in thawed permafrost. Global climate models assume that decomposition increases linearly with temperature, yet decomposition in th...

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Predicting athletes' functional and dysfunctional emotions: The role of the motivational climate and motivation regulations.

PubMed

Ruiz, Montse C; Haapanen, Saara; Tolvanen, Asko; Robazza, Claudio; Duda, Joan L

2017-08-01

This study examined the relationships between perceptions of the motivational climate, motivation regulations, and the intensity and functionality levels of athletes' pleasant and unpleasant emotional states. Specifically, we examined the hypothesised mediational role of motivation regulations in the climate-emotion relationship. We also tested a sequence in which emotions were assumed to be predicted by the motivational climate dimensions and then served as antecedents to variability in motivation regulations. Participants (N = 494) completed a multi-section questionnaire assessing targeted variables. Structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed that a perceived task-involving climate was a positive predictor of autonomous motivation and of the impact of functional anger, and a negative predictor of the intensity of anxiety and dysfunctional anger. Autonomous motivation was a partial mediator of perceptions of a task-involving climate and the impact of functional anger. An ego-involving climate was a positive predictor of controlled motivation, and of the intensity and impact of functional anger and the intensity of dysfunctional anger. Controlled motivation partially mediated the relationship between an ego-involving climate and the intensity of dysfunctional anger. Good fit to the data also emerged for the motivational climate, emotional states, and motivation regulations sequence. Findings provide support for the consideration of hedonic tone and functionality distinctions in the assessment of athletes' emotional states.

Using Rainfall and Temperature Data in the Evaluation of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa.

PubMed

Thomson, Madeleine C; Ukawuba, Israel; Hershey, Christine L; Bennett, Adam; Ceccato, Pietro; Lyon, Bradfield; Dinku, Tufa

2017-09-01

Since 2010, the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership, including National Malaria Control Programs, donor agencies (e.g., President's Malaria Initiative and Global Fund), and other stakeholders have been evaluating the impact of scaling up malaria control interventions on all-cause under-five mortality in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The evaluation framework assesses whether the deployed interventions have had an impact on malaria morbidity and mortality and requires consideration of potential nonintervention influencers of transmission, such as drought/floods or higher temperatures. Herein, we assess the likely effect of climate on the assessment of the impact malaria interventions in 10 priority countries/regions in eastern, western, and southern Africa for the President's Malaria Initiative. We used newly available quality controlled Enhanced National Climate Services rainfall and temperature products as well as global climate products to investigate likely impacts of climate on malaria evaluations and test the assumption that changing the baseline period can significantly impact on the influence of climate in the assessment of interventions. Based on current baseline periods used in national malaria impact assessments, we identify three countries/regions where current evaluations may overestimate the impact of interventions (Tanzania, Zanzibar, Uganda) and three countries where current malaria evaluations may underestimate the impact of interventions (Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia). In four countries (Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola) there was no strong difference in climate suitability for malaria in the pre- and post-intervention period. In part, this may be due to data quality and analysis issues.

Orbital, tectonic and oceanographic controls on Pliocene climate and atmospheric circulation in Arctic Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panitz, Sina; Salzmann, Ulrich; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; Pound, Matthew J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Lunt, Daniel J.

2018-02-01

During the Pliocene Epoch, a stronger-than-present overturning circulation has been invoked to explain the enhanced warming in the Nordic Seas region in comparison to low to mid-latitude regions. While marine records are indicative of changes in the northward heat transport via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the Pliocene, the long-term terrestrial climate evolution and its driving mechanisms are poorly understood. We present the first two-million-year-long Pliocene pollen record for the Nordic Seas region from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 642B, reflecting vegetation and climate in Arctic Norway, to assess the influence of oceanographic and atmospheric controls on Pliocene climate evolution. The vegetation record reveals a long-term cooling trend in northern Norway, which might be linked to a general decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the studied interval, and climate oscillations primarily controlled by precession (23 kyr), obliquity (54 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) forcing. In addition, the record identifies four major shifts in Pliocene vegetation and climate mainly controlled by changes in northward heat transport via the NAC. Cool temperate (warmer than present) conditions prevailed between 5.03-4.30 Ma, 3.90-3.47 Ma and 3.29-3.16 Ma and boreal (similar to present) conditions predominated between 4.30-3.90 Ma, 3.47-3.29 and after 3.16 Ma. A distinct decline in sediment and pollen accumulation rates at c. 4.65 Ma is probably linked to changes in ocean currents, marine productivity and atmospheric circulation. Climate model simulations suggest that changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Early Pliocene could have affected atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas region, which would have affected the direction of pollen transport from Scandinavia to ODP Hole 642B.

Climate Controlled?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harney, John O.

2014-01-01

More than 250 higher education leaders from campuses across the U.S. met last week in Boston for the 2014 Presidential Summit on Climate Leadership. The summit was organized by Second Nature, the supporting organization for the American College & University Presidents' Climate Commitment (ACUPCC). Almost 700 colleges and universities have…

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhen; Babst, Flurin; Bellassen, Valentin; Frank, David; Launois, Thomas; Tan, Kun; Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Climate controls photosynthetic capacity more than leaf nitrogen contents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, A. A.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

2013-12-01

Global vegetation models continue to lack the ability to make reliable predictions because the photosynthetic capacity varies a lot with growth conditions, season and among species. It is likely that vegetation models link photosynthetic capacity to concurrent changes in leaf nitrogen content only. To improve the predictions of the vegetation models, there is an urgent need to review species growth conditions and their seasonal response to changing climate. We sampled the global distribution of the Vcmax (maximum carboxylation rates) data of various species across different environmental gradients from the literature and standardized its value to 25 degree Celcius. We found that species explained the largest variation in (1) the photosynthetic capacity and (2) the proportion of nitrogen allocated for rubisco (PNcb). Surprisingly, climate variables explained more variations in photosynthetic capacity as well as PNcb than leaf nitrogen content and/or specific leaf area. The chief climate variables that explain variation in photosynthesis and PNcb were radiation, temperature and daylength. Our analysis suggests that species have the greatest control over photosynthesis and PNcb. Further, compared to leaf nitrogen content and/or specific leaf area, climate variables have more control over photosynthesis and PNcb. Therefore, climate variables should be incorporated in the global vegetation models when making predictions about the photosynthetic capacity.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua

2016-11-18

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua

2016-01-01

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states. PMID:27857204

Spatial-temporal controls on peatland carbon dynamics in the Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada: Reducing landscape-scale uncertainty in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Packalen, M. S.; Finkelstein, S. A.; McLaughlin, J.

2015-12-01

Global peatlands currently store more than 650 Pg of carbon (C) that has accumulated over millennia, and contributed to a net climatic cooling. However, controls on spatial-temporal C dynamics may differ regionally. With at least 30 Pg C sequestered in the Hudson Bay Lowlands Canada (HBL), the vulnerability of this globally significant peat C reservoir remains uncertain under conditions of a changing climate and enhanced anthropogenic pressure. Here, we synthesize our current understanding of controls on C dynamics in the HBL using detailed peat records. Our data reveal that widespread bog-fen patterning across the HBL is related to the distribution of peat C in space and time, indicating that topographic and ecohydroclimatic controls are potentially important determinants of C mass accretion. We find that while peat age is closely related to timing of land emergence and peat depth in the HBL, considerable variation in the total C mass among sites of similar peat age suggests that additional factors may further explain trends in peat C dynamics. Among these factors, we find that temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration in the HBL account for up to half of the variation in the distribution of the peat C mass, whereby regions with warmer and wetter conditions support larger peat C masses. Moreover, we find that the rate of C accumulation is greatest for young fen peatlands developing during warmer mid-Holocene climates; but that long-term C stores are greatest in association with bog peatlands. Although nearly two-thirds of HBL peat C is of late Holocene age, most of the reconstructed potential C losses also occurred during the late Holocene, as previously accrued peat decayed. Our findings support the hypothesis that both climate and ecohydrological factors are important drivers of peat C dynamics in the HBL, alongside geophysical controls on the timing of peat initiation. As the HBL peat complex continues to rapidly expand, it may remain a globally significant C reservoir. However, conservative climate scenarios predict warmer and wetter conditions in the next century, beyond the range of past climate variability. Ongoing elucidation of controls on peat C dynamics may further inform our understanding of the response of the HBL peat C reservoir to future climate and resource management scenarios.

Computer Controlled Portable Greenhouse Climate Control System for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datsenko, Anthony; Myer, Steve; Petties, Albert; Hustek, Ryan; Thompson, Mark

2010-04-01

This paper discusses a student project at Kettering University focusing on the design and construction of an energy efficient greenhouse climate control system. In order to maintain acceptable temperatures and stabilize temperature fluctuations in a portable plastic greenhouse economically, a computer controlled climate control system was developed to capture and store thermal energy incident on the structure during daylight periods and release the stored thermal energy during dark periods. The thermal storage mass for the greenhouse system consisted of a water filled base unit. The heat exchanger consisted of a system of PVC tubing. The control system used a programmable LabView computer interface to meet functional specifications that minimized temperature fluctuations and recorded data during operation. The greenhouse was a portable sized unit with a 5' x 5' footprint. Control input sensors were temperature, water level, and humidity sensors and output control devices were fan actuating relays and water fill solenoid valves. A Graphical User Interface was developed to monitor the system, set control parameters, and to provide programmable data recording times and intervals.

Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

2015-09-01

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

The CLIMATE schools combined study: a cluster randomised controlled trial of a universal Internet-based prevention program for youth substance misuse, depression and anxiety

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders account for three quarters of the disability attributed to mental disorders and frequently co-occur. While programs for the prevention and reduction of symptoms associated with (i) substance use and (ii) mental health disorders exist, research is yet to determine if a combined approach is more effective. This paper describes the study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention, a universal approach to preventing substance use and mental health problems among adolescents. Methods/design Participants will consist of approximately 8400 students aged 13 to 14-years-old from 84 secondary schools in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, Australia. The schools will be cluster randomised to one of four groups; (i) CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention; (ii) CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use; (iii) CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health, or (iv) Control (Health and Physical Education as usual). The primary outcomes of the trial will be the uptake and harmful use of alcohol and other drugs, mental health symptomatology and anxiety, depression and substance use knowledge. Secondary outcomes include substance use related harms, self-efficacy to resist peer pressure, general disability, and truancy. The link between personality and substance use will also be examined. Discussion Compared to students who receive the universal CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use, or CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health or the Control condition (who received usual Health and Physical Education), we expect students who receive the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention to show greater delays to the initiation of substance use, reductions in substance use and mental health symptoms, and increased substance use and mental health knowledge. Trial registration This trial is registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials registry, ACTRN12613000723785. PMID:24499060

The safety climate in primary care (SAP-C) study: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study.

PubMed

Lydon, Sinéad; Cupples, Margaret E; Hart, Nigel; Murphy, Andrew W; Faherty, Aileen; O'Connor, Paul

2016-01-01

Research on patient safety has focused largely on secondary care settings, and there is a dearth of knowledge relating to safety culture or climate, and safety climate improvement strategies, in the context of primary care. This is problematic given the high rates of usage of primary care services and the myriad of opportunities for clinical errors daily. The current research programme aimed to assess the effectiveness of an intervention derived from the Scottish Patient Safety Programme in Primary Care. The intervention consists of safety climate measurement and feedback and patient chart audit using the trigger review method. The purpose of this paper is to describe the background to this research and to present the methodology of this feasibility study in preparation for a future definitive RCT. The SAP-C study is a feasibility study employing a randomised controlled pretest-posttest design that will be conducted in 10 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Five practices will receive the safety climate intervention over a 9-month period. The five practices in the control group will continue care as usual but will complete the GP-SafeQuest safety climate questionnaire at baseline (month 1) and at the terminus of the intervention (month 9). The outcomes of the study include process evaluation metrics (i.e. rates of participant recruitment and retention, rates of completion of safety climate measures, qualitative data regarding participants' perceptions of the intervention's potential efficacy, acceptability, and sustainability), patient safety culture in intervention and control group practices at posttest, and instances of undetected patient harm identified through patient chart audit using the trigger review method. The planned study investigates an intervention to improve safety climate in Irish primary care settings. The resulting data may inform our knowledge of the frequency of undetected patient safety incidents in primary care, may contribute to improved patient safety practices in primary care settings, and may inform future research on patient safety improvement initiatives.

The Effect of Vaccination Coverage and Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Impoinvil, Daniel E.; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J.; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P.

2013-01-01

Background Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Methodology/principal findings Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. Conclusions/significance This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored. PMID:23951373

Reasoning from Incomplete Knowledge

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-03-01

control , and the copulation explosion. T Why didn’t that haonen in Siberia? S Yeah, there’s probably a pretty stronq interaction between the birth ...some parts are predominantly Hindu but most I think is Moslem. Neither of those sects are particularly strong on birth control . Climate differences...the West Coast, birth control from China, climate and food supplies from the difference between Siberia and China, soil and terrain (the latter was

Glacial-interglacial climate changes recorded by debris flow fan deposits, Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Arcy, Mitch; Roda-Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.

2017-08-01

It is hotly debated whether and how climate changes are recorded by terrestrial stratigraphy. Basin sediments produced by catchment-alluvial fan systems may record past climate over a variety of timescales, and could offer unique information about how climate controls sedimentation. Unfortunately, there are fundamental uncertainties about how climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature translate into sedimentological signals. Here, we examine 35 debris flow fan surfaces in Owens Valley, California, that record deposition throughout the past 125,000 years, during which climate has varied significantly. We show that the last full glacial-interglacial cycle is recorded with high fidelity by the grain size distributions of the debris flow deposits. These flows transported finer sediment during the cooler glacial climate, and became systematically coarser-grained as the climate warmed and dried. We explore the physical mechanisms that might explain this signal, and rule out changes in sediment supply through time. Instead, we propose that grain size records past changes in storm intensity, which is responsible for debris flow initiation in this area and is decoupled from average rainfall rates. This is supported by an exponential Clausius-Clapeyron-style scaling between grain size and temperature, and also reconciles with climate dynamics and the initiation of debris flows. The fact that these alluvial fans exhibit a strong, sustained sensitivity to orbital climate changes sheds new light on how eroding landscapes and their sedimentary products respond to climatic forcing. Finally, our findings highlight the importance of threshold-controlled events, such as storms and debris flows, in driving erosion and sedimentation at the Earth's surface in response to climate change.

Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

2014-01-01

Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

ORganizational-Climate Dimensions: A Conceptual and Judgmental Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

Communications Goal setting Control Leadership Decision making Motivation *J. P. Campbell and E. E. Beaty. Organizational climate : Its measurement and...BUREAU OF STANDARDS-M963-A.II !:-- |".4 Report USAFSAM-TR- 83-24 ORGANIZATIONAL - CLIMATE DIMENSIONS: 0 - A CONCEPTUAL AND JUDGMENTAL ANALYSIS CIO...GOVT ACCESSION No. 3. RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER -" 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOO COVEREDFinal Report . ORGANIZATIONAL - CLIMATE

Exploring the control of land-atmospheric oscillations over terrestrial vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depoorter, Mathieu; Green, Julia; Gentine, Pierre; Liu, Yi; van Eck, Christel; Regnier, Pierre; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Miralles, Diego

2015-04-01

Vegetation dynamics play an important role in the climate system due to their control on the carbon, energy and water cycles. The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation is regulated by internal climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms, including fires, land use, volcano eruptions or greenhouse gas emissions. Ocean-atmospheric oscillations, affect the fluxes of heat and water over continents, leading to anomalies in radiation, precipitation or temperature at widely separated locations (i.e. teleconnections); an effect of ocean-atmospheric oscillations on terrestrial primary productivity can therefore be expected. While different studies have shown the general importance of internal climate variability for global vegetation dynamics, the control by particular teleconnections over the regional growth and decay of vegetation is still poorly understood. At continental to global scales, satellite remote sensing offers a feasible approach to enhance our understanding of the main drivers of vegetation variability. Traditional studies of the multi-decadal variability of global vegetation have been usually based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which extends back to the early '80s. There are, however, some limitations to NDVI observations; arguably the most important of these limitations is that from the plant physiology perspective the index does not have a well-defined meaning, appearing poorly correlated to vegetation productivity. On the other hand, recently developed records from other remotely-sensed properties of vegetation, like fluorescence or microwave vegetation optical depth, have proven a significantly better correspondence to above-ground biomass. To enhance our understanding of the controls of ocean-atmosphere oscillations over vegetation, we propose to explore the link between climate oscillation extremes and net primary productivity over the last two decades. The co-variability of a range of climate oscillation indices and newly-derived records of fluorescence and vegetation optical depth is analyzed using a statistical framework based on correlations, bootstrapping and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). Results will enable us to characterize regional hotspots where particular climatic oscillations control vegetation productivity, as well as allowing us to underpin the climatic variables behind this control.

Methods of Evaluating Protective Clothing Relative to Heat and Cold Stress: Thermal Manikin, Biomedical Modeling, and Human Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

in the climatic chamber housing the manikin. The most widely accepted test procedures for the operation of a TM are published by ASTM International...insulation value of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35◦C and a climatic chamber controlled at 23◦C, 50% relative... climatic chamber controlled at 35◦C, 40% relative humidity, with a 0.4 m/sec air velocity. In addition to the tests conducted at 0.4 m/sec, USARIEM

"What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

2013-11-23

The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

Controlled warming effects on wheat growth and yield: field measurements and modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate warming may raise wheat yields in cooler climates and lower them in warmer. To understand these contrasting effects, infrared heating lamps were used to warm irrigated spring wheat by 1.5 'C (day) and 3.0 'C (night) above unheated controls during different times of the year at Maricopa, AZ. ...

Five Climate Control Techniques for Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Maurice J.

1963-01-01

There are many reasons for air-conditioning schools and among them are--(1) the improvement of learning and teaching efficiency, (2) effective use of the educational plant for a greater part of the year, and (3) more efficient use of space through compact building design. Five climate control techniques are cited as providing optimum…

Empathy and Effortful Control Effects on Early Adolescents' Aggression: When Do Students' Perceptions of Their School Climate Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Batanova, Milena; Loukas, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Guided by the social emotional learning framework, this study examined whether early adolescents' social awareness (empathic concern, perspective taking) and self-management (effortful control) would uniquely contribute to early adolescents' subsequent forms of aggression, and whether perceptions of their school climate (friction, cohesion,…

Solar Output Controls Periodicity in Lake Productivity and Wetness at Southernmost South America

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Marta; Gilfedder, Benjamin-Silas; Hermanns, Yvonne-Marie; Biester, Harald

2016-01-01

Cyclic changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) during the Holocene are known to affect global climatic conditions and cause cyclic climatic oscillations, e.g., Bond events and related changes of environmental conditions. However, the processes how changes in TSI affect climate and environment of the Southern Hemisphere, especially in southernmost South America, a key area for the global climate, are still poorly resolved. Here we show that highly sensitive proxies for aquatic productivity derived from sediments of a lake near the Chilean South Atlantic coast (53 °S) strongly match the cyclic changes in TSI throughout the Holocene. Intra-lake productivity variations show a periodicity of ~200–240 years coherent with the time series of TSI-controlled cosmogenic nuclide 10Be production. In addition TSI dependent periodicity of Bond events (~1500 years) appear to control wetness at the LH site indicated by mineral matter erosion from the catchment to the lake assumingly through shifts of the position of the southern westerly wind belt. Thus, both intra-lake productivity and wetness at the southernmost South America are directly or indirectly controlled by TSI. PMID:27869191

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-11-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0-1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Doing the right thing without being told: joint effects of initiative climate and general self-efficacy on employee proactive customer service performance.

PubMed

Raub, Steffen; Liao, Hui

2012-05-01

We developed and tested a cross-level model of the antecedents and outcomes of proactive customer service performance. Results from a field study of 900 frontline service employees and their supervisors in 74 establishments of a multinational hotel chain located in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia demonstrated measurement equivalence and suggested that, after controlling for service climate, initiative climate at the establishment level and general self-efficacy at the individual level predicted employee proactive customer service performance and interacted in a synergistic way. Results also showed that at the establishment level, controlling for service climate and collective general service performance, initiative climate was positively and indirectly associated with customer service satisfaction through the mediation of aggregated proactive customer service performance. We discuss important theoretical and practical implications of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

How to reduce long-term drift in present-day and deep-time simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunetti, Maura; Vérard, Christian

2018-06-01

Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has a great influence on the equilibrium climate after long simulation times. Useful insight on the nature of the climate drift can be obtained using two global metrics, i.e. the energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and at the ocean surface. The former is an indicator of the limitations within a given climate model, at the level of both numerical implementation and physical parameterisations, while the latter is an indicator of the goodness of the tuning procedure. Using the MIT general circulation model, we construct different configurations with various degree of complexity (i.e. different parameterisations for the bulk cloud albedo, inclusion or not of friction heating, different bathymetry configurations) to which we apply the same tuning procedure in order to obtain control runs for fixed external forcing where the climate drift is minimised. We find that the interplay between tuning procedure and different configurations of the same climate model provides crucial information on the stability of the control runs and on the goodness of a given parameterisation. This approach is particularly relevant for constructing good-quality control runs of the geological past where huge uncertainties are found in both initial and boundary conditions. We will focus on robust results that can be generally applied to other climate models.

Agro-ecological class stability decreases in response to climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change will impact bioclimatic drivers that regulate the geospatial distribution of dryland agro-ecological classes (AECs). Characterizing the geospatial relationship between present AECs and their bioclimatic controls will provide insights into potential future shifts in AECs as climate cha...

Some Spatial Aspects of Southeastern United States Climatology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soule, Peter T.

1998-01-01

Focuses on the climatology of an eight-state region in the southern and southeastern United States. Discusses general controls of climate and spatial patterns of various climatic averages. Examines mapped extremes as a means of fostering increased awareness of the variability that exists for climatic conditions in the region. (CMK)

A Review of School Climate Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thapa, Amrit; Cohen, Jonathan; Guffey, Shawn; Higgins-D'Alessandro, Ann

2013-01-01

For more than a century, there has been a growing interest in school climate. Recently, the U.S. Department of Education, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute for Educational Sciences, a growing number of State Departments of Education, foreign educational ministries, and UNICEF have focused on school climate reform as an…

Complexity Science and the Dynamics of Climate and Communication: Reducing Nursing Home Turnover

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Ruth A.; Corazzini, Kirsten N.; McDaniel, Reuben R., Jr.

2004-01-01

Purpose: Turnover in nursing homes is a widespread problem adversely affecting care quality. Using complexity theory, we tested the effect of administrative climate, communication patterns, and the interaction between the two on turnover, controlling for facility context. Design and Methods: Perceptions of administrative climate and communication…

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of Western Oregon and Washington, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated shifts associated with global climate change, and these patterns will likely continue due to continuing changes in environmental conditions. Tree growth is controlled by the physiological constraints o...

Dangerous climate change and collective action. Comment on "Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Jorge M. Pacheco, Vítor V. Vasconcelos, and Francisco C. Santos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid

2014-12-01

Climate change perhaps is the greatest collective action problem mankind has ever faced and the international community is still at a loss for how to get the ever rising greenhouse gas emissions under control. Does the risk of crossing a "dangerous" climate threshold improve the prospects of collective action?

Niche overlap of competing carnivores across climatic gradients and the conservation implications of climate change at geographic range margins

Treesearch

William J. Zielinski; Jody M. Tucker; Kerry M. Rennie

2017-01-01

There is considerable interest in factors controlling “warm-edge” limits – the lower elevation and latitudinal edges of a species' range. Understanding whether conservation measures can mitigate anticipated change in climate requires consideration of future climate as well as species interactions. We explored niche relations of martens and fishers at their...

Creating an environment for patient safety and teamwork training in the operating theatre: A quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Wallin, Carl-Johan; Kalman, Sigridur; Sandelin, Annika; Färnert, May-Lena; Dahlstrand, Ursula; Jylli, Leena

2015-03-01

Positive safety and a teamwork climate in the training environment may be a precursor for successful teamwork training. This pilot project aimed to implement and test whether a new interdisciplinary and team-based approach would result in a positive training climate in the operating theatre. A 3-day educational module for training the complete surgical team of specialist nursing students and residents in safe teamwork skills in an authentic operative theatre, named Co-Op, was implemented in a university hospital. Participants' (n=22) perceptions of the 'safety climate' and the 'teamwork climate', together with their 'readiness for inter-professional learning', were measured to examine if the Co-Op module produced a positive training environment compared with the perceptions of a control group (n=11) attending the conventional curriculum. The participants' perceptions of 'safety climate' and 'teamwork climate' and their 'readiness for inter-professional learning' scores were significantly higher following the Co-Op module compared with their perceptions following the conventional curriculum, and compared with the control group's perceptions following the conventional curriculum. The Co-Op module improved 'safety climate' and 'teamwork climate' in the operating theatre, which suggests that a deliberate and designed educational intervention can shape a learning environment as a model for the establishment of a safety culture.

Conclusions about Niche Expansion in Introduced Impatiens walleriana Populations Depend on Method of Analysis

PubMed Central

Mandle, Lisa; Warren, Dan L.; Hoffmann, Matthias H.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Schmitt, Johanna; von Wettberg, Eric J.

2010-01-01

Determining the degree to which climate niches are conserved across plant species' native and introduced ranges is valuable to developing successful strategies to limit the introduction and spread of invasive plants, and also has important ecological and evolutionary implications. Here, we test whether climate niches differ between native and introduced populations of Impatiens walleriana, globally one of the most popular horticultural species. We use approaches based on both raw climate data associated with occurrence points and ecological niche models (ENMs) developed with Maxent. We include comparisons of climate niche breadth in both geographic and environmental spaces, taking into account differences in available habitats between the distributional areas. We find significant differences in climate envelopes between native and introduced populations when comparing raw climate variables, with introduced populations appearing to expand into wetter and cooler climates. However, analyses controlling for differences in available habitat in each region do not indicate expansion of climate niches. We therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that observed differences in climate envelopes reflect only the limited environments available within the species' native range in East Africa. Our results suggest that models built from only native range occurrence data will not provide an accurate prediction of the potential for invasiveness if applied to areas containing a greater range of environmental combinations, and that tests of niche expansion may overestimate shifts in climate niches if they do not control carefully for environmental differences between distributional areas. PMID:21206912

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

PubMed

Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

2018-04-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

Using Rainfall and Temperature Data in the Evaluation of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa

PubMed Central

Thomson, Madeleine C.; Ukawuba, Israel; Hershey, Christine L.; Bennett, Adam; Ceccato, Pietro; Lyon, Bradfield; Dinku, Tufa

2017-01-01

Abstract. Since 2010, the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership, including National Malaria Control Programs, donor agencies (e.g., President's Malaria Initiative and Global Fund), and other stakeholders have been evaluating the impact of scaling up malaria control interventions on all-cause under-five mortality in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The evaluation framework assesses whether the deployed interventions have had an impact on malaria morbidity and mortality and requires consideration of potential nonintervention influencers of transmission, such as drought/floods or higher temperatures. Herein, we assess the likely effect of climate on the assessment of the impact malaria interventions in 10 priority countries/regions in eastern, western, and southern Africa for the President's Malaria Initiative. We used newly available quality controlled Enhanced National Climate Services rainfall and temperature products as well as global climate products to investigate likely impacts of climate on malaria evaluations and test the assumption that changing the baseline period can significantly impact on the influence of climate in the assessment of interventions. Based on current baseline periods used in national malaria impact assessments, we identify three countries/regions where current evaluations may overestimate the impact of interventions (Tanzania, Zanzibar, Uganda) and three countries where current malaria evaluations may underestimate the impact of interventions (Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia). In four countries (Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola) there was no strong difference in climate suitability for malaria in the pre- and post-intervention period. In part, this may be due to data quality and analysis issues. PMID:28990912

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

Role of Atmospheric Chemistry in the Climate Impacts of Stratospheric Volcanic Injections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Legrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2016-01-01

The climate impact of a volcanic eruption is known to be dependent on the size, location and timing of the eruption. However, the chemistry and composition of the volcanic plume also control its impact on climate. It is not just sulfur dioxide gas, but also the coincident emissions of water, halogens and ash that influence the radiative and climate forcing of an eruption. Improvements in the capability of models to capture aerosol microphysics, and the inclusion of chemistry and aerosol microphysics modules in Earth system models, allow us to evaluate the interaction of composition and chemistry within volcanic plumes in a new way. These modeling efforts also illustrate the role of water vapor in controlling the chemical evolution, and hence climate impacts, of the plume. A growing realization of the importance of the chemical composition of volcanic plumes is leading to a more sophisticated and realistic representation of volcanic forcing in climate simulations, which in turn aids in reconciling simulations and proxy reconstructions of the climate impacts of past volcanic eruptions. More sophisticated simulations are expected to help, eventually, with predictions of the impact on the Earth system of any future large volcanic eruptions.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Climate changes impact the surface albedo of a forest ecosystem based on MODIS satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, M. A.; Nemuc, A. V.

2007-10-01

Surface albedo is one of the most important biophysical parameter responsible for energy balance control and the surface temperature and boundary-layer structure of the atmosphere. Forest land surface albedo is also highly variable temporally showing both diurnal as well as seasonal variations. In forest systems, albedo controls the microclimate conditions which affects ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes such as energy balance, evapotranspiration, photosynthesis. Due to anthropogenic and natural factors, land cover and land use changes result is the land surfaces albedo change. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the albedo patterns due to the impact of atmospheric pollution and climate variations of a forest ecosystem Branesti-Cernica, placed to the North-East of Bucharest city, Romania based on satellite Landsat ETM+, IKONOS and MODIS data and climate station observations. Our study focuses on 3 years of data (2003-2005), each of which had a different climatic regime. As the physical climate system is very sensitive to surface albedo, forest ecosystems could significantly feedback to the projected climate change modeling scenarios through albedo changes. The results of this research have a number of applications in weather forecasting, climate change, and forest ecosystem studies.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Hydrological resiliency in the Western Boreal Plains: classification of hydrological responses using wavelet analysis to assess landscape resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Probert, Samantha; Kettridge, Nicholas; Devito, Kevin; Hannah, David; Parkin, Geoff

2017-04-01

The Boreal represents a system of substantial resilience to climate change, with minimal ecological change over the past 6000 years. However, unprecedented climatic warming, coupled with catchment disturbances could exceed thresholds of hydrological function in the Western Boreal Plains. Knowledge of ecohydrological and climatic feedbacks that shape the resilience of boreal forests has advanced significantly in recent years, but this knowledge is yet to be applied and understood at landscape scales. Hydrological modelling at the landscape scale is challenging in the WBP due to diverse, non-topographically driven hydrology across the mosaic of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This study functionally divides the geologic and ecological components of the landscape into Hydrologic Response Areas (HRAs) and wetland, forestland, interface and pond Hydrologic Units (HUs) to accurately characterise water storage and infer transmission at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Wavelet analysis is applied to pond and groundwater levels to describe the patterns of water storage in response to climate signals; to isolate dominant controls on hydrological responses and to assess the relative importance of physical controls between wet and dry climates. This identifies which components of the landscape exhibit greater magnitude and frequency of variability to wetting and drying trends, further to testing the hierarchical framework for hydrological storage controls of: climate, bedrock geology, surficial geology, soil, vegetation, and topography. Classifying HRA and HU hydrological function is essential to understand and predict water storage and redistribution through drought cycles and wet periods. This work recognises which landscape components are most sensitive under climate change and disturbance and also creates scope for hydrological resiliency research in Boreal systems by recognising critical landscape components and their role in landscape collapse or catastrophic shift in ecosystem function under future climatic scenarios.

Effects of rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention on the perceptions of organizational climate and occupational risk management practices among electronics technology employees in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Ogbuanya, Theresa Chinyere; Eseadi, Chiedu; Orji, Chibueze Tobias; Ede, Moses Onyemaechi; Ohanu, Ifeanyi Benedict; Bakare, Jimoh

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Improving employees’ perception of organizational climate, and coaching them to remain steadfast when managing occupational risks associated with their job, might have an important effect on their psychosocial wellbeing and occupational health. This study examined the effects of a rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention program on the perceptions of organizational climate and occupational risk management practices. Methods: The participants were 77 electronics technology employees in the south-east of Nigeria. The study used a pretest–posttest control group design. Results: The rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention program significantly improved perceptions of the organizational climate for the people in the treatment group compared to those in the waitlist control group at post-intervention and follow-up assessments. Occupational risk management practices of the employees in the treatment group were also significantly better than those in the waitlist control group at the same 2 assessments. Conclusions: Corporate application of a rational emotive behavior therapy as an occupational health therapy intervention program is essential for improving the perceptions of organizational climate and promoting the adoption of feasible occupational risk management strategies in the workplace. PMID:28471971

Effects of rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention on the perceptions of organizational climate and occupational risk management practices among electronics technology employees in Nigeria.

PubMed

Ogbuanya, Theresa Chinyere; Eseadi, Chiedu; Orji, Chibueze Tobias; Ede, Moses Onyemaechi; Ohanu, Ifeanyi Benedict; Bakare, Jimoh

2017-05-01

Improving employees' perception of organizational climate, and coaching them to remain steadfast when managing occupational risks associated with their job, might have an important effect on their psychosocial wellbeing and occupational health. This study examined the effects of a rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention program on the perceptions of organizational climate and occupational risk management practices. The participants were 77 electronics technology employees in the south-east of Nigeria. The study used a pretest-posttest control group design. The rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention program significantly improved perceptions of the organizational climate for the people in the treatment group compared to those in the waitlist control group at post-intervention and follow-up assessments. Occupational risk management practices of the employees in the treatment group were also significantly better than those in the waitlist control group at the same 2 assessments. Corporate application of a rational emotive behavior therapy as an occupational health therapy intervention program is essential for improving the perceptions of organizational climate and promoting the adoption of feasible occupational risk management strategies in the workplace.

Can we forecast the effects of climate change on entomophagous biological control agents?

PubMed

Aguilar-Fenollosa, Ernestina; Jacas, Josep A

2014-06-01

The worldwide climate has been changing rapidly over the past decades. Air temperatures have been increasing in most regions and will probably continue to rise for most of the present century, regardless of any mitigation policy put in place. Although increased herbivory from enhanced biomass production and changes in plant quality are generally accepted as a consequence of global warming, the eventual status of any pest species will mostly depend on the relative effects of climate change on its own versus its natural enemies' complex. Because a bottom-up amplification effect often occurs in trophic webs subjected to any kind of disturbance, natural enemies are expected to suffer the effects of climate change to a greater extent than their phytophagous hosts/preys. A deeper understanding of the genotypic diversity of the populations of natural enemies and their target pests will allow an informed reaction to climate change. New strategies for the selection of exotic natural enemies and their release and establishment will have to be adopted. Conservation biological control will probably become the keystone for the successful management of these biological control agents. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

40 CFR 80.1450 - What are the registration requirements under the RFS program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... buildings to control ambient climate for human comfort, and no other purpose. (B) Affidavits from the final... of heating interior spaces of homes or buildings to control ambient climate for human comfort, and no....—(1) Any producer of renewable fuel, and any foreign ethanol producer who makes changes to his...

Boreal soil carbon dynamics under a changing climate: a model inversion approach

Treesearch

Zhaosheng Fan; Jason C. Neff; Jennifer W. Harden; Kimberly P. Wickland

2008-01-01

Several fundamental but important factors controlling the feedback of boreal organic carbon (OC) to climate change were examined using a mechanistic model of soil OC dynamics, including the combined effects of temperature and moisture on the decomposition of OC and the factors controlling carbon quality and decomposition with depth. To estimate decomposition rates and...

Advanced Thermo-Adsorptive Battery: Advanced Thermo-Adsorptive Battery Climate Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

HEATS Project: MIT is developing a low-cost, compact, high-capacity, advanced thermoadsorptive battery (ATB) for effective climate control of EVs. The ATB provides both heating and cooling by taking advantage of the materials’ ability to adsorb a significant amount of water. This efficient battery system design could offer up as much as a 30% increase in driving range compared to current EV climate control technology. The ATB provides high-capacity thermal storage with little-to-no electrical power consumption. The ATB is also looking to explore the possibility of shifting peak electricity loads for cooling and heating in a variety of other applications, includingmore » commercial and residential buildings, data centers, and telecom facilities.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-10-20

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net radiation, evapotranspiration, gross primary production, net primary production, and net ecosystem production were discussed.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species

PubMed Central

Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

2015-01-01

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species. PMID:25376303

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species.

PubMed

Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

2015-01-01

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Role of vegetation in interplay of climate, soil and groundwater recharge in a global dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. H.; Jackson, R. B.

2010-12-01

Groundwater is an essential resource for people and ecosystems worldwide. Our capacity to ameliorate predicted global water shortages and to maintain sustainable water supplies depend on a better understanding of the controls of recharge and how vegetation change may affect recharge mechanisms. The goals of this study are to quantify the importance of vegetation as a dominant control on recharge globally and to compare the importance of vegetation with other hydrologically important variables, including climate and soil. We based our global analysis on > 500 recharge estimates from the literature that contained information on vegetation, soil and climate or location. Plant functional types significantly affected groundwater recharge rates substantially. After climatic factors (water inputs, PET, and seasonality), vegetation types explained about 15% of the residuals in the dataset. Across all climatic factors, croplands had the highest recharge rates, followed by grasslands, scrublands and woodlands (average recharge: 75, 63, 30, 22 mm/yr respectively). Recharge under woodlands showed the most nonlinear response to water inputs. Differences in recharge between the vegetation types were more exaggerated at arid climates and in clay soils, indicating greater biological control on soil water fluxes in these conditions. Our results shows that vegetation greatly affects recharge rates globally and alters relationship between recharge and physical variables allowing us to better predict recharge rates globally.

The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

PubMed

Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

2017-11-01

Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Integrated Feedback on Classroom Climate of Secondary School Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patel, Nilesh Kumar

2018-01-01

This study aimed at finding out the effect of Integrated feedback on Classroom climate of secondary school teachers. This research is experimental in nature. Non-equivalent control group design suggested by Stanley and Campbell (1963) was used for the experiment. Integrated feedback was treatment and independent variable, Classroom climate was…

EMISSION REDUCTIONS AIMED AT IMPROVING AIR QUALITY: UNINTENDED CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES AND THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THEIR SUCCESS

EPA Science Inventory

This work will provide improved understanding of the role of climate change, both in the recent past and future, on the success of pollutant control strategies, allowing for better planning and accountability of emission reductions. This work will also provide a quantitative a...

75 FR 11505 - Revision of Land and Resource Management Plan for the National Forests in Mississippi

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-11

... increasing weather disturbances and incorporating strategies for responding to anticipated climate changes in... and a changing climate, reducing impacts of insects and diseases, controlling non-native invasive... weather events is the climate change factor most likely to affect the NFsMS in the next 10-15 years...

Climate change and environmentally responsible behavior on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Treesearch

Jee In Yoon; Gerard Kyle; Carena J. vanRiper; Stephen G. Sutton

2012-01-01

This study explored the relationship between Australians' perceptions of climate change, its impact on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and predictors of environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). Our hypothesized model suggested that general attitudes toward climate change, social pressure for engaging in ERBs (subjective norms), and perceived behavioral control (...

Interactive influences of ozone and climate on streamflow of forested watersheds

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Samuel B. Mclaughlin; John H. Porter; Johan Uddling; Patrick J. Mulholland; Mary B. Adams; Neil Pederson

2012-01-01

The capacity of forests tomitigate global climate change can be negatively influenced by tropospheric ozone that impairs both photosynthesis and stomatal control of plant transpiration, thus affecting ecosystem productivity and watershed hydrology. We have evaluated individual and interactive effects of ozone and climate on late season streamflow for six forested...

Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

PubMed

Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

2014-03-01

The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

An ecohydrological model to quantify the risk of drought-induced forest mortality events across climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Regional scale drought-induced forest mortality events are projected to become more frequent under future climates due to changes in rainfall patterns. However, the ability to predict the conditions under which such events occur is currently lacking. To quantify and understand the underlying causes of drought-induced forest mortality, we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that explicitly couples tree water and carbon use strategies with climate characteristics, such as the frequency and severity of drought. Using the model and results from a controlled drought experiment, we identify the soil, vegetation, and climate factors that underlie tree water and carbon deficits and, ultimately, the risk of drought-induced forest mortality. This mortality risk is then compared across the spectrum of anisohydric-isohydric stomatal control strategies and a range of rainfall regimes. These results suggest certain soil-plant combinations may maximize the survivable drought length in a given climate. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be expanded to estimate the effect of anticipated climate change on drought-induced forest mortality and associated consequences for forest water and carbon balances.

[Energy policy rather than climate policy].

PubMed

Kroonenberg, Salomon B

2009-01-01

Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

A longitudinal study of an intervention to improve road safety climate: climate as an organizational boundary spanner.

PubMed

Naveh, Eitan; Katz-Navon, Tal

2015-01-01

This study presents and tests an intervention to enhance organizational climate and expands existing conceptualization of organizational climate to include its influence on employee behaviors outside the organization's physical boundaries. In addition, by integrating the literatures of climate and work-family interface, the study explored climate spillover and crossover from work to the home domain. Focusing on an applied practical problem within organizations, we investigated the example of road safety climate and employees' and their families' driving, using a longitudinal study design of road safety intervention versus control groups. Results demonstrated that the intervention increased road safety climate and decreased the number of traffic violation tickets and that road safety climate mediated the relationship between the intervention and the number of traffic violation tickets. Road safety climate spilled over to the family domain but did not cross over to influence family members' driving. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Examining Long Term Climate Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-24

114 Examining Long-Term Climate-Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning Catherine M. Schkoda, Shawna G. Cuan, and...E. D. McGrady Abstract: This paper examines four possible climate change-related security risks that emerged from an international game and scenario...potential for an emerging disparity between regions over the consensus and control of climate change-related technologies. Keywords: gaming , scenario

Isotopic evidence of multiple controls on atmospheric oxidants over climate transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Lei; Murray, Lee T.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Lin, Pu; Fu, Qiang; Schauer, Andrew J.; Alexander, Becky

2017-06-01

The abundance of tropospheric oxidants, such as ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (OH) and peroxy radicals (HO2 + RO2), determines the lifetimes of reduced trace gases such as methane and the production of particulate matter important for climate and human health. The response of tropospheric oxidants to climate change is poorly constrained owing to large uncertainties in the degree to which processes that influence oxidants may change with climate and owing to a lack of palaeo-records with which to constrain levels of atmospheric oxidants during past climate transitions. At present, it is thought that temperature-dependent emissions of tropospheric O3 precursors and water vapour abundance determine the climate response of oxidants, resulting in lower tropospheric O3 in cold climates while HOx (= OH + HO2 + RO2) remains relatively buffered. Here we report observations of oxygen-17 excess of nitrate (a proxy for the relative abundance of atmospheric O3 and HOx) from a Greenland ice core over the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle and for two Dansgaard-Oeschger events. We find that tropospheric oxidants are sensitive to climate change with an increase in the O3/HOx ratio in cold climates, the opposite of current expectations. We hypothesize that the observed increase in O3/HOx in cold climates is driven by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of O3, and that reactive halogen chemistry is also enhanced in cold climates. Reactive halogens influence the oxidative capacity of the troposphere directly as oxidants themselves and indirectly via their influence on O3 and HOx. The strength of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport is largely controlled by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which may be enhanced in colder climates owing to a stronger meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures, with implications for the response of tropospheric oxidants and stratospheric thermal and mass balance. These two processes may represent important, yet relatively unexplored, climate feedback mechanisms during major climate transitions.

The climatic and hydrologic history of southern Nevada during the late Quaternary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.; Carter, C.

Understanding climate change during the expected life span of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, requires estimates of future climate boundary conditions. These climate boundary conditions are governed by changes in the Earth's orbital properties (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) that determine insolation. Subcycles of the 400,000 year insolation-controlled climate cycles last approximately 100,000 years. This report describes the changes which have occurred in the climatic history of Southern Nevada during the past 400,000 years. These changes provide a basis for understanding the changes which may occur during the long-term future in this area.

The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission: perceptions of CDC health professionals in Shanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Wei, Junni; Hansen, Alana; Zhang, Ying; Li, Hong; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Xue, Shulian; Zhao, Shufang; Bi, Peng

2014-01-01

There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change.

Aedes aegypti (L.) in Latin American and Caribbean region: With growing evidence for vector adaptation to climate change?

PubMed

Chadee, Dave D; Martinez, Raymond

2016-04-01

Within Latin America and the Caribbean region the impact of climate change has been associated with the effects of rainfall and temperature on seasonal outbreaks of dengue but few studies have been conducted on the impacts of climate on the behaviour and ecology of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.This study was conducted to examine the adaptive behaviours currently being employed by A. aegypti mosquitoes exposed to the force of climate change in LAC countries. The literature on the association between climate and dengue incidence is small and sometimes speculative. Few laboratory and field studies have identified research gaps. Laboratory and field experiments were designed and conducted to better understand the container preferences, climate-associated-adaptive behaviour, ecology and the effects of different temperatures and light regimens on the life history of A. aegypti mosquitoes. A. aegypti adaptive behaviours and changes in container preferences demonstrate how complex dengue transmission dynamics is, in different ecosystems. The use of underground drains and septic tanks represents a major behaviour change identified and compounds an already difficult task to control A. aegypti populations. A business as usual approach will exacerbate the problem and lead to more frequent outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in LAC countries unless both area-wide and targeted vector control approaches are adopted. The current evidence and the results from proposed transdisciplinary research on dengue within different ecosystems will help guide the development of new vector control strategies and foster a better understanding of climate change impacts on vector-borne disease transmission. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: what model projections do and don't tell us

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littell, J. S.; McKenzie, D.; Cushman, S. A.; Wan, H. Y.

2017-12-01

We developed statistical climate-fire models describing area burned for 70 ecosections in the western U.S. Historically, these ecosections collectively represent a gradient of climate-fire relationships from purely fuel limited (characterized by antecedent positive water balance anomalies and/or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability limited (characterized by antecedent negative water balance anomalies and/or positive energy balance anomalies). Sixty-eight ecosection linear models included significant climate predictors, and 56 ecosections satisfied regression diagnostics, yielding acceptable climate-fire models. There is considerable diversity in seasonality, dominant variables, and prevalence of lagged climatic terms in the climate-fire regression models, indicating variation in mechanisms of climate-fire linkages across ecosystems. This diversity, however, is not random - there is a clear pattern in the fuzzy set membership of the relative dominance of regression predictor variables. This pattern defines a fuel-flammability gradient of limitations, with a tendency toward warm season drought on the flammability end and a tendency toward antecedent moisture on the fuel end. Projected area burned under a multi-model composite future climate scenarios varies, with increasing area burned in 41 ecosections in the West by 2030-2059 (median 132% among 10 purely flammability limited ecosections, median 240% among 25 flammability limited systems with a fuel limitation component, and median 43% among 6 systems with equal control) but decreasing (median -119% among 13 fuel limited systems with a flammability component). For the period 2070-2099, the projected area burned increases much more in the flammability (769%) and flammability-fuel hybrid (442%) systems than those with joint control (139%), and continues to decrease (-178%) in fuel-flammability hybrid systems. Filtering the projected results with fire rotation limits projections biased high by the static assumptions of the statistical models. Exceedence probabilities for 95th%ile fire years increases for the 2040s and 2080s and are largest in exclusively flammability limited ecosections compared with other fuel controls.

Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Cameron, Scott; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2016-07-01

Dengue fever is an important climate-sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a risk to half the world's population. The disease is a major public health issue in China where in 2014 a major outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province. This study aims to gauge health professionals' perceptions about the capacity of infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenge of dengue fever in the face of climate change in Guangdong Province, China. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered among staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) in Guangdong Province. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods and logistic regression. In total, 260 questionnaires were completed. Most participants (80.7%) thought climate change would have a negative effect on population health, and 98.4% of participants reported dengue fever had emerged or re-emerged in China in recent years. Additionally, 74.9% of them indicated that the capability of the CDCs to detect infectious disease outbreak/epidemic at an early stage was excellent; 86.3% indicated laboratories could provide diagnostic support rapidly; and 83.1% believed levels of current staff would be adequate in the event of a major outbreak. Logistic regression analysis showed higher levels of CDCs were perceived to have better capacity for infectious disease control and prevention. Only 26.8% of participants thought they had a good understanding of climate change, and most (85.4%) thought they needed more information about the health impacts of climate change. Most surveyed staff suggested the following strategies to curb the public health impact of infectious diseases in relation to climate change: primary prevention measures, strengthening the monitoring of infectious diseases, the ability to actively forecast disease outbreaks by early warning systems, and more funding for public health education programs. Vigilant disease and vector surveillance, preventive practice and health promotion programs will likely be significant in addressing the threat of dengue fever in the future. Further efforts are needed to strengthen the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to minimize the health burden of infectious diseases in a changing climate. Results will be critical for policy makers facing the current and future challenges associated with infectious disease prevention and control in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychological mechanisms underlying doping attitudes in sport: motivation and moral disengagement.

PubMed

Hodge, Ken; Hargreaves, Elaine A; Gerrard, David; Lonsdale, Chris

2013-08-01

We examined whether constructs outlined in self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2002), namely, autonomy-supportive and controlling motivational climates and autonomous and controlled motivation, were related to attitudes toward performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) in sport and drug-taking susceptibility. We also investigated moral disengagement as a potential mediator. We surveyed a sample of 224 competitive athletes (59% female; M age = 20.3 years; M = 10.2 years of experience participating in their sport), including 81 elite athletes. Using structural equation modeling analyses, our hypothesis proposing positive relationships with controlling climates, controlled motivation, and PEDs attitudes and susceptibility was largely supported, whereas our hypothesis proposing negative relationships among autonomous climate, autonomous motivation, and PEDs attitudes and susceptibility was not supported. Moral disengagement was a strong predictor of positive attitudes toward PEDs, which, in turn, was a strong predictor of PEDs susceptibility. These findings are discussed from both motivational and moral disengagement viewpoints.

Quality assessment concept of the World Data Center for Climate and its application to CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, M.; Höck, H.; Toussaint, F.; Lautenschlager, M.

2012-08-01

The preservation of data in a high state of quality which is suitable for interdisciplinary use is one of the most pressing and challenging current issues in long-term archiving. For high volume data such as climate model data, the data and data replica are no longer stored centrally but distributed over several local data repositories, e.g. the data of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The most important part of the data is to be archived, assigned a DOI, and published according to the World Data Center for Climate's (WDCC) application of the DataCite regulations. The integrated part of WDCC's data publication process, the data quality assessment, was adapted to the requirements of a federated data infrastructure. A concept of a distributed and federated quality assessment procedure was developed, in which the workload and responsibility for quality control is shared between the three primary CMIP5 data centers: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC), and WDCC. This distributed quality control concept, its pilot implementation for CMIP5, and first experiences are presented. The distributed quality control approach is capable of identifying data inconsistencies and to make quality results immediately available for data creators, data users and data infrastructure managers. Continuous publication of new data versions and slow data replication prevents the quality control from check completion. This together with ongoing developments of the data and metadata infrastructure requires adaptations in code and concept of the distributed quality control approach.

Forest types of the northern Rocky Mountains and their climatic controls

Treesearch

J. A. Larsen

1930-01-01

The purpose in this report is to describe the natural forest types of the northern Rocky Mountains in Montana and northern Idaho, to point out their natural distribution and chief silvical characteristics, and to show in what degree they are controlled by differences in topography and climate. Such information may be useful in laying the foundation for later, more...

Causes of Climate and Environmental Changes: The Need for Environmental-Friendly Education Policy in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nwankwoala, H. N. L.

2015-01-01

Man cannot naturally be detached from his environment. From time to time, changes in climate and environmental conditions occur as a result of natural and human factors. Obviously, the natural factors are almost beyond human control. But, the human factors are to a very large extent under human control. Thus, this paper tried to discover natural…

Design and development of low pressure evaporator/condenser unit for water-based adsorption type climate control systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkataramanan, Arjun; Rios Perez, Carlos A.; Hidrovo, Carlos H.

2016-11-01

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the future of clean transportation and driving range is one of the important parameters which dictates its marketability. In order to increase driving range, electrical battery energy consumption should be minimized. Vapor-compression refrigeration systems currently employed in EVs for climate control consume a significant fraction of the battery charge. Thus, by replacing this traditional heating ventilation and air-conditioning system with an adsorption based climate control system one can have the capability of increasing the drive range of EVs.The Advanced Thermo-adsorptive Battery (ATB) for climate control is a water-based adsorption type refrigeration cycle. An essential component of the ATB is a low pressure evaporator/condenser unit (ECU) which facilitates both the evaporation and condensation processes. The thermal design of the ECU relies predominantly on the accurate prediction of evaporation/boiling heat transfer coefficients since the standard correlations for predicting boiling heat transfer coefficients have large uncertainty at the low operating pressures of the ATB. This work describes the design and development of a low pressure ECU as well as the thermal performance of the actual ECU prototype.

Re-evaluating occupational heat stress in a changing climate.

PubMed

Spector, June T; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-10-01

The potential consequences of occupational heat stress in a changing climate on workers, workplaces, and global economies are substantial. Occupational heat stress risk is projected to become particularly high in middle- and low-income tropical and subtropical regions, where optimal controls may not be readily available. This commentary presents occupational heat stress in the context of climate change, reviews its impacts, and reflects on implications for heat stress assessment and control. Future efforts should address limitations of existing heat stress assessment methods and generate economical, practical, and universal approaches that can incorporate data of varying levels of detail, depending on resources. Validation of these methods should be performed in a wider variety of environments, and data should be collected and analyzed centrally for both local and large-scale hazard assessments and to guide heat stress adaptation planning. Heat stress standards should take into account variability in worker acclimatization, other vulnerabilities, and workplace resources. The effectiveness of controls that are feasible and acceptable should be evaluated. Exposure scientists are needed, in collaboration with experts in other areas, to effectively prevent and control occupational heat stress in a changing climate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

2016-01-01

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Are Atmospheric Updrafts a Key to Unlocking Climate Forcing and Sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-06-08

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Effects of fire and CO2 on biogeography and primary production in glacial and modern climates.

PubMed

Martin Calvo, Maria; Prentice, Iain Colin

2015-11-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can disentangle causes and effects in the control of vegetation and fire. We used a DGVM to analyse climate, CO2 and fire influences on biome distribution and net primary production (NPP) in last glacial maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial (PI) times. The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) DGVM was run in a factorial design with fire 'off' or 'on', CO2 at LGM (185 ppm) or PI (280 ppm) concentrations, and LGM (modelled) or recent climates. Results were analysed by Stein-Alpert decomposition to separate primary effects from synergies. Fire removal causes forests to expand and global NPP to increase slightly. Low CO2 greatly reduces forest area (dramatically in a PI climate; realistically under an LGM climate) and global NPP. NPP under an LGM climate was reduced by a quarter as a result of low CO2 . The reduction in global NPP was smaller at low temperatures, but greater in the presence of fire. Global NPP is controlled by climate and CO2 directly through photosynthesis, but also through biome distribution, which is strongly influenced by fire. Future vegetation simulations will need to consider the coupled responses of vegetation and fire to CO2 and climate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Climatic and human controls on the late Holocene fire history of northern Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintana Krupinski, N. B.; Nishri, A.; Street, J. H.; Paytan, A.

2011-12-01

Long-term fire histories provide insight into the effects of climate, ecology and human influence on fire activity. Fire records can be expanded beyond the period of historical record using accumulation rates of large charcoal particles and soot black carbon (BC) in lacustrine sediments: charcoal accumulation peaks indicate local to regional fire events, while increased deposition of BC may document regional-scale burning. To determine which factors exert the greatest control over changes in fire frequency at different times, this study compares late Holocene fire records from Lake Kinneret (the Sea of Galilee), Israel to local and regional records of climate and human activity. We show that fire frequency decreased during the past 3010 years from 3-4 fire events per 400 years between 3010 - 2620 y.b.p. to 0-2 fire events per 400 years from 750 y.b.p. to present. Human modification of the landscape during periods of high population (e.g. forest clearing, agriculture, settlement expansion and industry) appears to have been the greatest contributor to increased fire activity in the semi-arid southern Levant region during the late Holocene, though aridity may also have contributed to higher fire activity. However, during much of the study period, climate and human activity were interrelated, so while human activity may have been the greater control on fire activity, the effect of climate may have been both direct and indirect (through climate-related changes in population), making it sometimes difficult to distinguish the two controls. Projections of increasing aridification of the region combined with a heavy impact on the landscape from a large modern population suggest that increased fire activity may occur in the region in the near future.

Floodplain ecohydrology: Climatic, anthropogenic, and local physical controls on partitioning of water sources to riparian trees.

PubMed

Singer, Michael Bliss; Sargeant, Christopher I; Piégay, Hervé; Riquier, Jérémie; Wilson, Rob J S; Evans, Cristina M

2014-05-01

Seasonal and annual partitioning of water within river floodplains has important implications for ecohydrologic links between the water cycle and tree growth. Climatic and hydrologic shifts alter water distribution between floodplain storage reservoirs (e.g., vadose, phreatic), affecting water availability to tree roots. Water partitioning is also dependent on the physical conditions that control tree rooting depth (e.g., gravel layers that impede root growth), the sources of contributing water, the rate of water drainage, and water residence times within particular storage reservoirs. We employ instrumental climate records alongside oxygen isotopes within tree rings and regional source waters, as well as topographic data and soil depth measurements, to infer the water sources used over several decades by two co-occurring tree species within a riparian floodplain along the Rhône River in France. We find that water partitioning to riparian trees is influenced by annual (wet versus dry years) and seasonal (spring snowmelt versus spring rainfall) fluctuations in climate. This influence depends strongly on local (tree level) conditions including floodplain surface elevation and subsurface gravel layer elevation. The latter represents the upper limit of the phreatic zone and therefore controls access to shallow groundwater. The difference between them, the thickness of the vadose zone, controls total soil moisture retention capacity. These factors thus modulate the climatic influence on tree ring isotopes. Additionally, we identified growth signatures and tree ring isotope changes associated with recent restoration of minimum streamflows in the Rhône, which made new phreatic water sources available to some trees in otherwise dry years. Water shifts due to climatic fluctuations between floodplain storage reservoirsAnthropogenic changes to hydrology directly impact water available to treesEcohydrologic approaches to integration of hydrology afford new possibilities.

Floodplain ecohydrology: Climatic, anthropogenic, and local physical controls on partitioning of water sources to riparian trees

PubMed Central

Singer, Michael Bliss; Sargeant, Christopher I; Piégay, Hervé; Riquier, Jérémie; Wilson, Rob J S; Evans, Cristina M

2014-01-01

Seasonal and annual partitioning of water within river floodplains has important implications for ecohydrologic links between the water cycle and tree growth. Climatic and hydrologic shifts alter water distribution between floodplain storage reservoirs (e.g., vadose, phreatic), affecting water availability to tree roots. Water partitioning is also dependent on the physical conditions that control tree rooting depth (e.g., gravel layers that impede root growth), the sources of contributing water, the rate of water drainage, and water residence times within particular storage reservoirs. We employ instrumental climate records alongside oxygen isotopes within tree rings and regional source waters, as well as topographic data and soil depth measurements, to infer the water sources used over several decades by two co-occurring tree species within a riparian floodplain along the Rhône River in France. We find that water partitioning to riparian trees is influenced by annual (wet versus dry years) and seasonal (spring snowmelt versus spring rainfall) fluctuations in climate. This influence depends strongly on local (tree level) conditions including floodplain surface elevation and subsurface gravel layer elevation. The latter represents the upper limit of the phreatic zone and therefore controls access to shallow groundwater. The difference between them, the thickness of the vadose zone, controls total soil moisture retention capacity. These factors thus modulate the climatic influence on tree ring isotopes. Additionally, we identified growth signatures and tree ring isotope changes associated with recent restoration of minimum streamflows in the Rhône, which made new phreatic water sources available to some trees in otherwise dry years. Key Points Water shifts due to climatic fluctuations between floodplain storage reservoirs Anthropogenic changes to hydrology directly impact water available to trees Ecohydrologic approaches to integration of hydrology afford new possibilities PMID:25506099

Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

2017-04-01

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Analysis and Experimental Investigation of Optimum Design of Thermoelectric Cooling/Heating System for Car Seat Climate Control (CSCC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elarusi, Abdulmunaem; Attar, Alaa; Lee, HoSung

2018-02-01

The optimum design of a thermoelectric system for application in car seat climate control has been modeled and its performance evaluated experimentally. The optimum design of the thermoelectric device combining two heat exchangers was obtained by using a newly developed optimization method based on the dimensional technique. Based on the analytical optimum design results, commercial thermoelectric cooler and heat sinks were selected to design and construct the climate control heat pump. This work focuses on testing the system performance in both cooling and heating modes to ensure accurate analytical modeling. Although the analytical performance was calculated using the simple ideal thermoelectric equations with effective thermoelectric material properties, it showed very good agreement with experiment for most operating conditions.

24 CFR 3280.504 - Condensation control and installation of vapor retarders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... these cavities; or (4) Homes manufactured to be sited in “humid climates” or “fringe climates” as shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in this paragraph are permitted to have a vapor retarder... the humid and fringe climate areas shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in paragraph (b)(4) of...

24 CFR 3280.504 - Condensation control and installation of vapor retarders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... these cavities; or (4) Homes manufactured to be sited in “humid climates” or “fringe climates” as shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in this paragraph are permitted to have a vapor retarder... the humid and fringe climate areas shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in paragraph (b)(4) of...

24 CFR 3280.504 - Condensation control and installation of vapor retarders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... be sited in “humid climates” or “fringe climates” as shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in... specified), listed by state are deemed to be within the humid and fringe climate areas shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in paragraph (b)(4) of this section, and the vapor retarder or construction...

24 CFR 3280.504 - Condensation control and installation of vapor retarders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... these cavities; or (4) Homes manufactured to be sited in “humid climates” or “fringe climates” as shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in this paragraph are permitted to have a vapor retarder... the humid and fringe climate areas shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in paragraph (b)(4) of...

Consistent negative temperature sensitivity and positive influence of precipitation on growth of floodplain Picea glauca in Interior Alaska

Treesearch

Glenn Patrick Juday; Claire. Alix

2012-01-01

This paper calibrates climate controls over radial growth of floodplain white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and examines whether growth in these populations responds similarly to climate as upland trees in Interior Alaska. Floodplain white spruce trees hold previously unrecognized potential for long-term climate reconstruction because they...

The Effects of Principals' Perceived Instructional and Distributed Leadership Practices on Their Perceptions of School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bellibas, Mehmet Sukru; Liu, Yan

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which leadership styles predict school climate, in order to identify whether a relationship exists between principals' perceived practices of instructional and distributed leadership and their perceptions of school climate (mutual respect and school delinquency), controlling for a net of…

24 CFR 3280.504 - Condensation control and installation of vapor retarders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... these cavities; or (4) Homes manufactured to be sited in “humid climates” or “fringe climates” as shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in this paragraph are permitted to have a vapor retarder... the humid and fringe climate areas shown on the Humid and Fringe Climate Map in paragraph (b)(4) of...

Bromus response to climate and projected changes with climate change [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Bethany A. Bradley; Caroline A. Curtis; Jeanne C. Chambers

2016-01-01

A prominent goal of invasive plant management is to prevent or reduce the spread of invasive species into uninvaded landscapes and regions. Monitoring and control efforts often rely on scientific knowledge of suitable habitat for the invasive species. However, rising temperatures and altered precipitation projected with climate change are likely to shift the...

Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denommee, K. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Droxler, A. W.

2014-01-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful agents of destruction, and understanding climatic controls on TC patterns is of great importance. Over timescales of seasons to several decades, relationships among TC track, frequency, intensity and basin-scale climate changes are well documented by instrumental records. Over centuries to millennia, climate-shift influence on TC regimes remains poorly constrained. To better understand these relationships, records from multiple locations of TC strikes spanning millennia with high temporal resolution are required, but such records are rare. Here we report on a highly detailed sedimentary proxy record of paleo-TC strikes from the Blue Hole of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Our findings provide an important addition to other high-resolution records, which collectively demonstrate that shifts between active and inactive TC regimes have occurred contemporaneously with shifts hemispheric-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such as MDR SSTs and NAO mode, rather than with changes in local climate phenomena as has previously been suggested.

Antisocial and Prosocial Behavior in Sport: The Role of Motivational Climate, Basic Psychological Needs, and Moral Disengagement.

PubMed

Hodge, Ken; Gucciardi, Daniel F

2015-06-01

The purpose of this investigation was to examine whether the relationships between contextual factors and basic psychological needs were related to antisocial and prosocial behavior in sport. A two-study project employing Bayesian path analysis was conducted with competitive athletes (Study 1, n = 291; Study 2, n = 272). Coach and teammate autonomy-supportive climates had meaningful direct relations with need satisfaction and prosocial behavior. Coach and teammate controlling climates had meaningful direct relations with antisocial behavior. Need satisfaction was both directly and indirectly related with both prosocial and antisocial behavior, whereas moral disengagement was directly and indirectly related with antisocial behavior. Overall, these findings reflected substantial evidence from the literature on self-determination theory that autonomy-supportive motivational climates are important environmental influences for need satisfaction, and are important correlates of prosocial behavior in sport, whereas controlling coach and teammate climates, along with moral disengagement, were important correlates of antisocial behavior in sport.

Uncertainty in Arctic climate projections traced to variability of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, WIlco; van Heerwaarden, Chiel

2017-04-01

The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.

Climate, orography and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Salinas, Jose Luis; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-05-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed reference procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national flood frequency models. Our study focuses on Triveneto, a broad geographical region in North-eastern Italy. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which considered Triveneto as a single homogeneous region and developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 1980s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for 76 catchments located in Triveneto. All 76 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The objective of our study is threefold: (1) to inspect climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime; (2) to verify the possible presence of changes in flood frequency regime by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI). Our study leads to the following conclusions: (1) climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) a single year characterized by extreme floods can have a remarkable influence on regional flood frequency models and analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime; (3) no significant change was detected in the flood frequency regime, yet an update of the existing reference procedure for design flood estimation is highly recommended and we propose the RoI approach for properly representing climate and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto, which cannot be regarded as a single homogeneous region.

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Wang, D.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Chen, Y.

2012-01-01

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Drivers of lignin composition in boreal forest organic soils across a climate gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers-Pigg, A.; Kaiser, K.; Benner, R. H.; Ziegler, S. E.

2017-12-01

Lignin diagenesis in soils, including the cumulative effects of degradation and leaching, increases with experimental warming, signifying a potentially important change relevant to soil organic matter accumulation and fate. However, decadal to centennial climatic effects including changes in precipitation, litterfall inputs, and understory sources, on lignin composition are poorly constrained. We examined the lignin content and composition, via cupric oxide oxidation (CuO), within the organic layers of podzolic soils under similar balsam fir forests across a latitudinal climate gradient in Atlantic Canada. By exploring variation in lignin by both soil depth and climate region, this study informs on the climate drivers of lignin stability within boreal forest soil. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed significant variations in common signatures of CuO by-products with depth and/or site, indicating source and/or diagenetic controllers. Importantly, none of these signatures, with the exception of p-hydroxyphenols, exhibited a site by depth interaction indicating a similar degree of diagenetic alternation with depth across climates. The site by depth interaction for p-hydroxyphenols is a result of greater moss input in the northernmost site. To better elucidate this climate-induced source variation on our interpretation of lignin diagenesis, a principle component (PCA) model was built using signatures varying by site (p<0.01). These signatures loaded uniquely with the percentage of wood, needles, and mosses within the L layer in each region. Site differences in this loading indicate that shifts in understory input is a major climate effect controlling lignin composition in these forest soils. A lignin diagenesis PCA model was built using (1) all non-moss related signatures identified in the first PCA model, and (2) scores for additional sites within each region, calculated from modeled lignin composition based on 13C-NMR spectra. The combined results indicate that the lignin diagenetic states among soils is similar, despite the large increase in soil C turnover with climate warming across this transect. Thus our results indicate that shifts in moss contribution, and not increased diagenesis, controls CuO by-products with climate change in these moist boreal forests.

Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapunov, Valentin

2010-05-01

The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. This dynamics had effect on global distribution of some animals including termites. Direct human effect on climate is not significant. At the same time man plays role of trigger switching on significant biosphere processes controlling climate. The transformation of marginal lands, development of industry and building, stimulated increase of termite niche and population. Termite role in green house gases production increases too. It may have regular effect on world climate. The dry wood is substrate for metabolism of termites living under symbiosis with bacteria Hypermastigina (Flagellata). The use of dry wood by humanity increased from 18 *108 ton in XVIII to 9*109 to the middle of XX century. Then use of wood decreased because of a new technology development. Hence termite population is controlled by microevolution depending on dry wood and climate dynamics. Producing by them green house gases had reciprocal effect on world climate. It is possible to describe and predict dynamic of termite population using methods of mathematical ecology and analogs with other well studied insects (Colorado potatoes beetle, Chrisomelid beetle Zygogramma and so on). Reclamation of new ecological niche for such insects as termites needs 70 - 75 years. That is delay of population dynamics in relation to dynamics of dry wood production. General principles of population growth were described by G.Gause (1934) and some authors of the end of XX century. This works and analogs with other insects suggest model of termite distribution during XXI century. The extremum of population and its green house gases production would be gotten during 8 - 10 years. Then the number of specimens and sum biological mass would be stabilized and decreased. Termite gas production is not priority for climate regulation, but it has importance as fine regulator of global temperature and climate stability. Key words: termites, green house gases, mathematical modeling. Union symposia Biogeoscience BG2.1

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, Guy; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Smith, Benjamin

2018-05-01

For the 21st century, carbon cycle models typically project an increase of terrestrial carbon with increasing atmospheric CO2 and a decrease with the accompanying climate change. However, these estimates are poorly constrained, primarily because they typically rely on a limited number of emission and climate scenarios. Here we explore a wide range of combinations of CO2 rise and climate change and assess their likelihood with the climate change responses obtained from climate models. Our results demonstrate that the terrestrial carbon uptake depends critically on the climate sensitivity of individual climate models, representing a large uncertainty of model estimates. In our simulations, the terrestrial biosphere is unlikely to become a strong source of carbon with any likely combination of CO2 and climate change in the absence of land use change, but the fraction of the emissions taken up by the terrestrial biosphere will decrease drastically with higher emissions.

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

[Progress of research in relation to the impact of climate change on children's health status].

PubMed

Gao, J H; Li, L P; Wang, J; Liu, X B; Wu, H X; Li, J; Li, J; Liu, Q Y

2017-06-10

Along with global warming, climate change has become one of the biggest public health challenges. The unique metabolism, behavior, physiology and development in children, will make them suffer more from the climate change. In the present review, we summarized the progress and situation of studies on the associations between climate change and children's health also trying to provide adaptation and mitigation strategies. The purpose of this study was to offer scientific evidence for prevention and control on the adverse effects as injuries, diseases and deaths among children that resulted from the changes of climate.

Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 heat wave: a climate change adaptation study.

PubMed

Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-01-01

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2-88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation-here relocating one ward-and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 Heat Wave: A Climate Change Adaptation Study

PubMed Central

Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L.; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Sheffield, Perry E.

2014-01-01

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2–88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation—here relocating one ward—and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations. PMID:24734050

East African weathering dynamics controlled by vegetation-climate feedbacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ivory, Sarah J.; McGlue, Michael M.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Boehlke, Adam; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Vincens, Annie; Cohen, Andrew S.

2017-01-01

Tropical weathering has important linkages to global biogeochemistry and landscape evolution in the East African rift. We disentangle the influences of climate and terrestrial vegetation on chemical weathering intensity and erosion at Lake Malawi using a long sediment record. Fossil pollen, microcharcoal, particle size, and mineralogy data affirm that the detrital clays accumulating in deep water within the lake are controlled by feedbacks between climate and hinterland forest composition. Particle-size patterns are also best explained by vegetation, through feedbacks with lake levels, wildfires, and erosion. We develop a new source-to-sink framework that links lacustrine sedimentation to hinterland vegetation in tropical rifts. Our analysis suggests that climate-vegetation interactions and their coupling to weathering/erosion could threaten future food security and has implications for accurately predicting petroleum play elements in continental rift basins.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Service climate as a mediator of organizational empowerment in customer-service employees.

PubMed

Mendoza-Sierra, Maria Isabel; Orgambídez-Ramos, Alejandro; Carrasco-González, Ana María; León-Jariego, José Carlos

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the mediating role of the service climate between organizational empowerment (i.e., dynamic structural framework, control of workplace decisions, fluidity in information sharing) and service quality (functional and relational). 428 contact employees from 46 hotels participated in the survey. Correlations demonstrated that dynamic structural framework, control decisions, and fluidity in information sharing are related to both functional and relational service quality. Regression analyses and Sobel tests revealed that service climate totally mediated the relationship between all three dimensions of organizational empowerment and relational service quality. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to compute the contributions of various surface boundary conditions to the monthly mean states generated by the 7 layer, 8 x 10 GISS climate model (Hansen et al., 1980), and also to examine the influence of initial conditions on the model climate simulations. Obvious climatic controls as the shape and rotation of the Earth, the solar radiation, and the dry composition of the atmosphere are fixed, and only the surface boundary conditions are altered in the various climate simulations.

The Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease Transmission: Perceptions of CDC Health Professionals in Shanxi Province, China

PubMed Central

Wei, Junni; Hansen, Alana; Zhang, Ying; Li, Hong; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Xue, Shulian; Zhao, Shufang; Bi, Peng

2014-01-01

There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change. PMID:25285440

Highly Seasonal and Perennial Fluvial Facies: Implications for Climatic Control on the Douglas Creek and Parachute Creek Members, Green River Formation, Southeastern Uinta Basin, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gall, Ryan D.

The early to middle Eocene Green River Formation consists of continental strata deposited in Laramide ponded basins in Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. This study (1) documents fluvial and lacustrine strata from the Douglas Creek and Parachute Creek Members of the middle Green River Formation, southeastern Uinta Basin, Utah, and (2) uses new interpretations of the link between climate and fluvial sedimentary expression to interpret the terrestrial evolution of early Eocene climate. The stratigraphy was analyzed via outcrops along a 10 km transect in Main Canyon on the Tavaputs Plateau, and is divided into three distinct, stratigraphically separated depositional settings: (1) the lowermost Interval 1 is dominated by amalgamated sandstone channels that contain 70-100% upper flow regime sedimentary structures. The channels are interpreted to represent fluvial deposits controlled by a highly seasonal climate, where most deposition was limited to seasonal flooding events. (2) Interval 2 is dominated by alternating siliciclastic and carbonate lacustrine deposits, interpreted as local pulsed fluvial siliciclastic input into shallow Lake Uinta, and periods of fluvial quiescence represented by littoral carbonate deposition. (3) The uppermost Interval 3 is dominated by erosively-based, trough cross bedded sandstone channels interbedded with littoral lacustrine and deltaic deposits. The Interval 3 sandstone channels are interpreted as perennial fluvial deposits with relatively little variation in annual discharge, akin to modern humid-temperate fluvial systems. The stratigraphic transition from seasonally-controlled (Interval 1) to perennial (Interval 3) fluvial deposits is interpreted to represent a fundamental shift in Eocene climate, from the peak hyperthermal regime of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) to a more stable post-EECO climate.

Climatic, landform, microtopographic, and overstory canopy controls of tree invasion in a subalpine meadow landscape, Oregon Cascades, USA

Treesearch

Harold S.J. Zald; Thomas A. Spies; Manuela Huso; Demetrios Gatziolis

2012-01-01

Tree invasions have been documented throughout Northern Hemisphere high elevation meadows, as well as globally in many grass and forb-dominated ecosystems. Tree invasions are often associated with large-scale changes in climate or disturbance regimes, but are fundamentally driven by regeneration processes influenced by interactions between climatic, topographic, and...

The significance of the effect of stand density upon the weather beneath the canopy

Treesearch

G. M. Jemison

1934-01-01

During the middle of the nineteenth century forests were believed to have important influences on climate. As climate was more thoroughly understood it became evident that the major climatic controls were beyond the influence of forest cover, a finding which wholly discredited the earlier conclusions. It was evident to the forester and student of ecology, however, that...

Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales

Treesearch

Mark A. Bradford; Robert J. Warren; Petr Baldrian; Thomas W. Crowther; Daniel S. Maynard; Emily E. Oldfield; William R. Wieder; Stephen A. Wood; Joshua R. King

2014-01-01

Decomposition of organic matter strongly influences ecosystem carbon storage1. In Earth-system models, climate is a predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter2, 3, 4, 5. This assumption is based on the mean response of decomposition to climate, yet there is a growing appreciation in other areas of global change science that projections based on...

National Security Implications of Climate-related Risks and a Changing Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-23

ocean acidification , and increased ocean warming pose threats to fish stocks, coral, mangroves, recreation and tourism, and the control of disease...vulnerable locations. USSOUTHCOM similarly highlights the threat that sea 23 July 2015 8 level rise and ocean acidification and warming...aids to GCCs. In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides long-term global climate projections, weather

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture.

PubMed

Hawkes, Christine V; Waring, Bonnie G; Rocca, Jennifer D; Kivlin, Stephanie N

2017-06-13

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40-70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration-moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall.

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

Climate uniformity: its influence on team communication quality, task conflict, and team performance.

PubMed

González-Romá, Vicente; Hernández, Ana

2014-11-01

We investigated whether climate uniformity (the pattern of climate perceptions of organizational support within the team) is related to task conflict, team communication quality, and team performance. We used a sample composed of 141 bank branches and collected data at 3 time points. The results obtained showed that, after controlling for aggregate team climate, climate strength, and their interaction, a type of nonuniform climate pattern (weak dissimilarity) was directly related to task conflict and team communication quality. Teams with weak dissimilarity nonuniform patterns tended to show higher levels of task conflict and lower levels of team communication quality than teams with uniform climate patterns. The relationship between weak dissimilarity patterns and team performance was fully mediated by team communication quality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Thermal battery for portable climate control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narayanan, S; Li, XS; Yang, S

2015-07-01

Current technologies that provide climate control in the transportation sector are quite inefficient. In gasoline-powered vehicles, the use of air-conditioning is known to result in higher emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants apart from decreasing the gas-mileage. On the other hand, for electric vehicles (EVs), a drain in the onboard electric battery due to the operation of heating and cooling system results in a substantial decrease in the driving range. As an alternative to the conventional climate control system, we are developing an adsorption-based thermal battery (ATB), which is capable of storing thermal energy, and delivering both heating and coolingmore » on demand, while requiring minimal electric power supply. Analogous to an electrical battery, the ATB can be charged for reuse. Furthermore, it promises to be compact, lightweight, and deliver high performance, which is desirable for mobile applications. In this study, we describe the design and operation of the ATB-based climate control system. We present a general theoretical framework to determine the maximum achievable heating and cooling performance using the ATB. The framework is then applied to study the feasibility of ATB integration in EVs, wherein we analyze the use of NaX zeolite-water as the adsorbent-refrigerant pair. In order to deliver the necessary heating and cooling performance, exceeding 2.5 kW h thermal capacity for EVs, the analysis determines the optimal design and operating conditions. While the use of the ATB in EVs can potentially enhance its driving range, it can also be used for climate control in conventional gasoline vehicles, as well as residential and commercial buildings as a more efficient and environmentally-friendly alternative. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Understanding the Influence of Climate Forecasts on Farmer Decisions as Planned Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artikov, Ikrom; Hoffman, Stacey J.; Lynne, Gary D.; Pytlik Zillig, Lisa M.; Hu, Qi; Tomkins, Alan J.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Hayes, Michael J.; Waltman, William

2006-09-01

Results of a set of four regression models applied to recent survey data of farmers in eastern Nebraska suggest the causes that drive farmer intentions of using weather and climate information and forecasts in farming decisions. The model results quantify the relative importance of attitude, social norm, perceived behavioral control, and financial capability in explaining the influence of climate-conditions information and short-term and long-term forecasts on agronomic, crop insurance, and crop marketing decisions. Attitude, serving as a proxy for the utility gained from the use of such information, had the most profound positive influence on the outcome of all the decisions, followed by norms. The norms in the community, as a proxy for the utility gained from allowing oneself to be influenced by others, played a larger role in agronomic decisions than in insurance or marketing decisions. In addition, the interaction of controllability (accuracy, availability, reliability, timeliness of weather and climate information), self-efficacy (farmer ability and understanding), and general preference for control was shown to be a substantive cause. Yet control variables also have an economic side: The farm-sales variable as a measure of financial ability and motivation intensified and clarified the role of control while also enhancing the statistical robustness of the attitude and norms variables in better clarifying how they drive the influence. Overall, the integrated model of planned behavior from social psychology and derived demand from economics, that is, the “planned demand model,” is more powerful than models based on either of these approaches alone. Taken together, these results suggest that the “human dimension” needs to be better recognized so as to improve effective use of climate and weather forecasts and information for farming decision making.

Controls on stream network branching angles, tested using landscape evolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodoratos, Nikolaos; Seybold, Hansjörg; Kirchner, James W.

2016-04-01

Stream networks are striking landscape features. The topology of stream networks has been extensively studied, but their geometry has received limited attention. Analyses of nearly 1 million stream junctions across the contiguous United States [1] have revealed that stream branching angles vary systematically with climate and topographic gradients at continental scale. Stream networks in areas with wet climates and gentle slopes tend to have wider branching angles than in areas with dry climates or steep slopes, but the mechanistic linkages underlying these empirical correlations remain unclear. Under different climatic and topographic conditions different runoff generation mechanisms and, consequently, transport processes are dominant. Models [2] and experiments [3] have shown that the relative strength of channel incision versus diffusive hillslope transport controls the spacing between valleys, an important geometric property of stream networks. We used landscape evolution models (LEMs) to test whether similar factors control network branching angles as well. We simulated stream networks using a wide range of hillslope diffusion and channel incision parameters. The resulting branching angles vary systematically with the parameters, but by much less than the regional variability in real-world stream networks. Our results suggest that the competition between hillslope and channeling processes influences branching angles, but that other mechanisms may also be needed to account for the variability in branching angles observed in the field. References: [1] H. Seybold, D. H. Rothman, and J. W. Kirchner, 2015, Climate's watermark in the geometry of river networks, Submitted manuscript. [2] J. T. Perron, W. E. Dietrich, and J. W. Kirchner, 2008, Controls on the spacing of first-order valleys, Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, F04016. [3] K. E. Sweeney, J. J. Roering, and C. Ellis, 2015, Experimental evidence for hillslope control of landscape scale, Science, 349(6243), 51-53.

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.

The susceptibility of large river basins to orogenic and climatic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haedke, Hanna; Wittmann, Hella; von Blanckenburg, Friedhelm

2017-04-01

Large rivers are known to buffer pulses in sediment production driven by changes in climate as sediment is transported through lowlands. Our new dataset of in situ cosmogenic nuclide concentration and chemical composition of 62 sandy bedload samples from the world largest rivers integrates over 25% of Earth's terrestrial surface, distributed over a variety of climatic zones across all continents, and represents the millennial-scale denudation rate of the sediment's source area. We can show that these denudation rates do not respond to climatic forcing, but faithfully record orogenic forcing, when analyzed with respective variables representing orogeny (strain rate, relief, bouguer anomaly, free-air anomaly), and climate (runoff, temperature, precipitation) and basin properties (floodplain response time, drainage area). In contrast to this orogenic forcing of denudation rates, elemental bedload chemistry from the fine-grained portion of the same samples correlates with climate-related variables (precipitation, runoff) and floodplain response times. It is also well-known from previous compilations of river-gauged sediment loads that the short-term basin-integrated sediment export is also climatically controlled. The chemical composition of detrital sediment shows a climate control that can originate in the rivers source area, but this signal is likely overprinted during transfer through the lowlands because we also find correlation with floodplain response times. At the same time, cosmogenic nuclides robustly preserve the orogenic forcing of the source area denudation signal through of the floodplain buffer. Conversely, previous global compilations of cosmogenic nuclides in small river basins show the preservation of climate drivers in their analysis, but these are buffered in large lowland rivers. Hence, we can confirm the assumption that cosmogenic nuclides in large rivers are poorly susceptible to climate changes, but are at the same time highly suited to detect changes in orogenic forcing in their paleo sedimentary records.

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex.

PubMed

Lempereur, Morine; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Guibal, Frédéric; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rambal, Serge; Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent

2017-01-01

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?

PubMed

Taylor, Subhashni; Kumar, Lalit

2016-02-01

Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process-oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km(2) of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km(2) is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.

Climatic and landscape controls on travel time distributions across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Rohini; Rao, Suresh; Hesse, Falk; Borchardt, Dietrich; Fleckenstein, Jan; Jawitz, James; Musolff, Andreas; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Yang, Soohyun; Zink, Matthias; Attinger, Sabine

2017-04-01

Travel time distributions (TTDs) are fundamental descriptors to characterize the functioning of storage, mixing and release of water and solutes in a river basin. Identifying the relative importance (and controls) of climate and landscape attributes on TDDs is fundamental to improve our understanding of the underlying mechanism controlling the spatial heterogeneity of TTDs, and their moments (e.g., mean TT). Studies aimed at elucidating such controls have focused on either theoretical developments to gain (physical) insights using mostly synthetic datasets or empirical relationships using limited datasets from experimental sites. A study painting a general picture of emerging controls at a continental scale is still lacking. In this study, we make use of spatially resolved hydrologic fluxes and states generated through an observationally driven, mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM; www.ufz.de/mhm) to comprehensively characterize the dominant controls of climate and landscape attributes on TDDs in the vadose zone across the entire European region. mHM uses a novel Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR; Samaniego et al., 2010 and Kumar et al., 2013) scheme that encapsulates fine scale landscape attributes (e.g., topography, soil, and vegetation characteristics) to account for the sub-grid variability in model parameterization. The model was established at 25 km spatial resolution to simulate the daily gridded fluxes and states over Europe for the period 1955-2015. We utilized recent developments in TTDs theory (e.g., Botter et al., 2010, Harman et al., 2011) to characterize the stationary and non-stationary behavior of water particles transported through the vadose zone at every grid cell. Our results suggest a complex set of interactions between climate and landscape properties controlling the spatial heterogeneity of the mean travel time (TT). The spatial variability in the mean TT across the Pan-EU generally follows the climatic gradient with lower values in humid regions and higher in semi-arid or drier regions. The results signifies the role of a landscape attributes like plant available soil-water-storage capacity, when expressed in a dimensionless number that also include climate attributes such as average rain depth and aridity index, forms a potentially useful predictor for explaining the spatial heterogeneity of mean TTs. Finally, the study also highlights the time-varying behavior of TTDs and discusses the seasonal variation in mean TTs across Europe.

Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

PubMed

Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2017-07-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Climatic Versus Biotic Constraints on Carbon and Water Fluxes in Seasonally Drought-affected Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwarz, P. A.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M.; Irvine, J.; Kurpius, M.; Moore, D.

2005-01-01

We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS (50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE.

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V

2015-01-01

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control, which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record, (iv) thaw lakes, which used the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands, and (v) post-11 ka All, incorporating all boundary conditions changed in experiments (ii)–(iv). We find that regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The change from tundra to deciduous woodland produces additional widespread warming in spring and early summer over that induced by the 11 ka insolation regime alone, and lakes and wetlands produce modest and localized cooling in summer and warming in winter. The greatest effect is the flooding of the land bridge and shelves, which produces generally cooler conditions in summer but warmer conditions in winter and is most clearly manifest on the flooded shelves and in eastern Beringia. By 6 ka continued amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation and loss of the Laurentide ice sheet produce temperatures similar to or higher than those at 11 ka, plus a longer growing season.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal composition and root colonization, with weaker influences of plant identity and soil nutrients. These two studies across scales suggest prevailing effects of climate on AM fungal distributions. Thus, incorporating climate when forecasting future ranges of AM fungi will enhance predictions of AM fungal abundance and associated ecosystem functions.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Marshall, David J; McQuaid, Christopher D; Williams, Gray A

2010-10-23

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. The framework was successfully tested in two use scenarios of the GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG aiming to predict species distribution changes due to Climate Change factors, with the scientific patronage of the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop .

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hegermiller, Christie; Rueda, Ana C.; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Antolinez, J.A.A.; Mendez, Fernando J.

2017-01-01

Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

Climate controls on forest productivity along the climate gradient of the western Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, A. E.; Goulden, M. L.

2010-12-01

The broad climate gradient of the slopes of the western Sierra Nevada mountains supports ecosystems spanning extremes of productivity, biomass, and function. We are using this natural environmental gradient to understand how climate controls NPP, aboveground biomass, species' range limits, and phenology. Our experimental approach combines eddy covariance, sap flow, dendrometer, and litterfall measurements in combination with soil and hydrological data from the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). We have found that above about 2500 m, forest productivity is limited by winter cold, while below 1200 m, productivity is likely limited by summer drought. The sweet spot between these elevations has a nearly year-long growing season despite a snowpack that persists for as long as six months. Our results show that small differences in temperature can markedly alter the water balance and productivity of mixed conifer forests.

Controls of Multimodal Wave Conditions in a Complex Coastal Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegermiller, C. A.; Rueda, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P. L.; Antolinez, J. A. A.; Mendez, F. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove range limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavanaugh, K. C.; Kellner, J.; Cook-Patton, S.; Williams, P.; Feller, I. C.; Parker, J.

2014-12-01

Due to limitations of purely correlative species distribution models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD was a better predictor of mangrove presence/absence than other temperature-based metrics. Using 27 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to past changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further supporting the relevance of FDD. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project poleward migration of these range limits over the next 50 years.

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent.

PubMed

Vinnikov; Robock; Stouffer; Walsh; Parkinson; Cavalieri; Mitchell; Garrett; Zakharov

1999-12-03

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.

Climate-driven changes in forest succession and the influence of management on forest carbon dynamics in the Puget Lowlands of Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Danelle M. Laflower; Matthew D. Hurteau; George W. Koch; Malcolm P. North; Bruce A. Hungate

2016-01-01

Projecting the response of forests to changing climate requires understanding how biotic and abiotic controls on tree growth will change over time. As temperature and interannual precipitation variability increase, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to changing climate. Management actions that alter composition...

Climate and land use controls over terrestrial water use efficiency in monsoon Asia.

Treesearch

Hanqin Tian; Chaoqun Lu; Guangsheng Chen; Xiaofeng Xu; Mingliang Liu; et al

2011-01-01

Much concern has been raised regarding how and to what extent climate change and intensive human activities have altered water use efficiency (WUE, amount of carbon uptake per unit of water use) in monsoon Asia. By using a process-based ecosystem model [dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM)], we examined effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land...

Rural-Urban Differences in the Social Climate Surrounding Environmental Tobacco Smoke: A Report From the 2002 Social Climate Survey of Tobacco Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMillen, Robert; Breen, Julie; Cosby, Arthur G.

2004-01-01

Although previous research has found smoking rates to be higher among residents of rural areas, few studies have investigated rural-urban differences in exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Objective: This study contrasted the social climate surrounding ETS among Americans who resided in 5 levels of county urbanization. Design: Data were…

Weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Recommendations for using space observations of weather and climate to aid in solving earth based problems are given. Special attention was given to: (1) extending useful forecasting capability of space systems, (2) reducing social, economic, and human losses caused by weather, (3) development of space system capability to manage and control air pollutant concentrations, and (4) establish mechanisms for the national examination of deliberate and inadvertent means for modifying weather and climate.

Seeing the climate through the trees: observing climate and forestry impacts on streamflow using a 60-year record

Treesearch

T. P. Burt; N. J. K. Howden; J. J. McDonnell; J. A. Jones; G. R. Hancock

2014-01-01

Paired watershed experiments involving the removal or manipulation of forest cover in one of the watersheds have been conducted for more than a century to quantify the impact of forestry operations on streamflow. Because climate variability is expected to be large, forestry treatment effects would be undetectable without the treatment–control comparison. New...

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

PubMed

del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2012-09-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

Paleogeographic Control on Climate Sensitivity of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene-Eocene.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnsworth, A.; Lunt, D. J.; Robinson, S.; O'Brien, C. L.; Pancost, R.

2016-12-01

Just how sensitive are warm climates of the past (Cretaceous-Eocene-Palaeogene (CPE)) to atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) concentrations. We present an ensemble [1] of 21 climate model simulations spanning the CPE at both 560ppm and 1120ppm using state of the art paleogeographies (GETECH Plc. [1]), to ascertain how sensitive warm climates of the past are to pCO2. We find depending on the time period in the CPE, a doubling of pCO2results in a 2-3°C increase in SST and a 3-5°C increase in surface air temperature. We analyse the reasons behind the varying climate sensitivity, and the geographical distribution of warming, including some of the periods with regions of cooling (figure 1) and how this may help inform future climate change. Further to this we construct a model derived CO2 curve through the CPE based on avaliable proxy-data. Figure 1 - Mean surface annual surface temperature (°C) anomaly (4 x Pre-Industrial pCO2 (1120ppm) minus 2 x Pre-Industrial pCO2(560ppm)) in the Ypresian ( 52 Myr). [1] Lunt, D. J., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Foster, G. L., Markwick, P., O'Brien, C. L., Pancost, R. D., Robinson, S. A., and Wrobel, N.: Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation, Clim. Past Discuss., 11, 5683-5725, doi:10.5194/cpd-11-5683-2015, 2015.

Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Bell, David M; Kwit, Matthew C; Zhu, Kai

2014-06-01

The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and competition at the individual scale. Models of forest response to climate do not include interactions because they are hard to estimate and require long-term observations on individual trees obtained at frequent (annual) intervals. Interactions involve multiple tree responses that can only be quantified if these responses are estimated as a joint distribution. A new approach provides estimates of climate–competition interactions in two critical ways, (i) among individuals, as a joint distribution of responses to combinations of inputs, such as resources and climate, and (ii) within individuals, due to allocation requirements that control outputs, such as demographic rates. Application to 20 years of data from climate and competition gradients shows that interactions control forest responses, and their omission from models leads to inaccurate predictions. Species most vulnerable to increasing aridity are not those that show the largest growth response to precipitation, but rather depend on interactions with the local resource environment. This first assessment of regional species vulnerability that is based on the scale at which climate operates, individual trees competing for carbon and water, supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US.

Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model.

PubMed

Lipp, Erin K; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R

2002-10-01

Recently, the role of the environment and climate in disease dynamics has become a subject of increasing interest to microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, and ecologists. Much of the interest has been stimulated by the growing problems of antibiotic resistance among pathogens, emergence and/or reemergence of infectious diseases worldwide, the potential of bioterrorism, and the debate concerning climate change. Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, lends itself to analyses of the role of climate in infectious disease, coupled to population dynamics of pathogenic microorganisms, for several reasons. First, the disease has a historical context linking it to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in the environment are strongly controlled by environmental factors, such as water temperature, salinity, and the presence of copepods, which are, in turn, controlled by larger-scale climate variability. In this review, the association between plankton and V. cholerae that has been documented over the last 20 years is discussed in support of the hypothesis that cholera shares properties of a vector-borne disease. In addition, a model for environmental transmission of cholera to humans in the context of climate variability is presented. The cholera model provides a template for future research on climate-sensitive diseases, allowing definition of critical parameters and offering a means of developing more sophisticated methods for prediction of disease outbreaks.

A quantitative comparison of Soil Development in four climatic regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Taylor, E.M.

1983-01-01

A new quantitative Soil Development Index based on field data has been applied to chronosequences formed under different climatic regimes. The four soil chronosequences, developed primarily on sandy deposits, have some numeric age control and are located in xeric-inland (Merced, Calif.), xeric-coastal (Ventura, Calif.), aridic (Las Cruces, N. Mex.), and udic (Susquehanna Valley, Pa.) soil-moisture regimes. To quantify field properties, points are assigned for developmental increases in soil properties in comparison to the parent material. Currently ten soil-field properties are quantified and normalized for each horizon in a given chronosequence, including two new properties for carbonate-rich soils in addition to the eight properties previously defined. When individual properties or the combined indexes are plotted as a function of numeric age, rates of soil development can be compared in different climates. The results demonstrate that (1) the Soil Development Index can be applied to very different soil types, (2) many field properties develop systematically in different climatic regimes, (3) certain properties appear to have similar rates of development in different climates, and (4) the Profile Index that combines different field properties increases significantly with age and appears to develop at similar rates in different climates. The Soil Development Index can serve as a preliminary guide to soil age where other age control is lacking and can be used to correlate deposits of different geographical and climatic regions. ?? 1983.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental optimal control strategies based on plant canopy photosynthesis responses and greenhouse climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Lujuan; Xie, Songhe; Cui, Jiantao; Liu, Tao

2006-11-01

It is the essential goal of intelligent greenhouse environment optimal control to enhance income of cropper and energy save. There were some characteristics such as uncertainty, imprecision, nonlinear, strong coupling, bigger inertia and different time scale in greenhouse environment control system. So greenhouse environment optimal control was not easy and especially model-based optimal control method was more difficult. So the optimal control problem of plant environment in intelligent greenhouse was researched. Hierarchical greenhouse environment control system was constructed. In the first level data measuring was carried out and executive machine was controlled. Optimal setting points of climate controlled variable in greenhouse was calculated and chosen in the second level. Market analysis and planning were completed in third level. The problem of the optimal setting point was discussed in this paper. Firstly the model of plant canopy photosynthesis responses and the model of greenhouse climate model were constructed. Afterwards according to experience of the planting expert, in daytime the optimal goals were decided according to the most maximal photosynthesis rate principle. In nighttime on plant better growth conditions the optimal goals were decided by energy saving principle. Whereafter environment optimal control setting points were computed by GA. Compared the optimal result and recording data in real system, the method is reasonable and can achieve energy saving and the maximal photosynthesis rate in intelligent greenhouse

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE PAGES

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Variations in the perceptions of peer and coach motivational climate.

PubMed

Vazou, Spiridoula

2010-06-01

This study examined (a) variations in the perceptions of peer- and coach-generated motivational climate within and between teams and (b) individual- and group-level factors that can account for these variations. Participants were 483 athletes between 12 and 16 years old. The results showed that perceptions of both peer- and coach-generated climate varied as a function of group-level variables, namely team success, coach's gender (except for peer ego-involving climate), and team type (only for coach ego-involving climate). Perceptions of peer- and coach-generated climate also varied as a function of individual-level variables, namely athletes' task and ego orientations, gender, and age (only for coach task-involving and peer ego-involving climate). Moreover, within-team variations in perceptions of peer- and coach-generated climate as a function of task and ego orientation levels were identified. Identifying and controlling the factors that influence perceptions of peer- and coach-generated climate may be important in strengthening task-involving motivational cues.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Coming Climate Crisis? Perhaps, but Beware the Solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2010-01-01

Over the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness that climate changes in substantial ways, that human activities are having an impact on climate change, and that climate change can have major consequences for human societies. Unfortunately, along with this realization has come a strong polarization within the scientific community and outside of it regarding what if anything should be done to reduce negative human impacts and/or to attempt to control climate. This book places recent climate change in the context of the very long term history of change on planet Earth and warns that our understanding of climate change remains sufficiently incomplete that we should be extremely cautious about implementing proposed massive geoengineering schemes intended to alter future climate conditions. The book treats with respect the various viewpoints in the highly polarized discussions regarding climate change, following a basic assumption that the major scientists on each side of the issues have valuable points to bring to the table. The topic is too important to become endlessly mired in contentious polarization.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-Glacial-Holocene Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

2016-01-01

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

2016-02-01

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition.

PubMed

Han, Y M; Peteet, D M; Arimoto, R; Cao, J J; An, Z S; Sritrairat, S; Yan, B Z

2016-02-10

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Walsh, Michael; Anenberg, Susan C.; VanDingen, Rita; Muller, Nicholas Z.; Austin, Jeff; Koch, Dorothy; Milly, George

2011-01-01

Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

Could geoengineering research help answer one of the biggest questions in climate science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Robert; Ackerman, Thomas; Rasch, Philip; Wanser, Kelly

2017-07-01

Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the radiative forcing of climate, and hinders our ability to determine Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases. Representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in global models is particularly challenging because these interactions occur on typically unresolved scales. Observational studies show influences of aerosol on clouds, but correlations between aerosol and clouds are insufficient to constrain aerosol forcing because of the difficulty in separating aerosol and meteorological impacts. In this commentary, we argue that this current impasse may be overcome with the development of approaches to conduct control experiments whereby aerosol particle perturbations can be introduced into patches of marine low clouds in a systematic manner. Such cloud perturbation experiments constitute a fresh approach to climate science and would provide unprecedented data to untangle the effects of aerosol particles on cloud microphysics and the resulting reflection of solar radiation by clouds. The control experiments would provide a critical test of high-resolution models that are used to develop an improved representation aerosol-cloud interactions needed to better constrain aerosol forcing in global climate models.

Compilation of climate data from heterogeneous networks across the Hawaiian Islands

PubMed Central

Longman, Ryan J.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Nullet, Michael A.; Frazier, Abby G.; Kodama, Kevin; Crausbay, Shelley D.; Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Cordell, Susan; Clark, Martyn P.; Newman, Andy J.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.

2018-01-01

Long-term, accurate observations of atmospheric phenomena are essential for a myriad of applications, including historic and future climate assessments, resource management, and infrastructure planning. In Hawai‘i, climate data are available from individual researchers, local, State, and Federal agencies, and from large electronic repositories such as the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Researchers attempting to make use of available data are faced with a series of challenges that include: (1) identifying potential data sources; (2) acquiring data; (3) establishing data quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) protocols; and (4) implementing robust gap filling techniques. This paper addresses these challenges by providing: (1) a summary of the available climate data in Hawai‘i including a detailed description of the various meteorological observation networks and data accessibility, and (2) a quality controlled meteorological dataset across the Hawaiian Islands for the 25-year period 1990-2014. The dataset draws on observations from 471 climate stations and includes rainfall, maximum and minimum surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, downward shortwave and longwave radiation data. PMID:29437162

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion.

PubMed

Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Parker, John D; Cook-Patton, Susan C; Feller, Ilka C; Williams, A Park; Kellner, James R

2015-05-01

Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr(-1) over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M.; Cess, R. D.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.; Hansen, J. E.; Hofmann, D. J.

1992-01-01

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Compilation of climate data from heterogeneous networks across the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, Ryan J.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Nullet, Michael A.; Frazier, Abby G.; Kodama, Kevin; Crausbay, Shelley D.; Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Cordell, Susan; Clark, Martyn P.; Newman, Andy J.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.

2018-02-01

Long-term, accurate observations of atmospheric phenomena are essential for a myriad of applications, including historic and future climate assessments, resource management, and infrastructure planning. In Hawai'i, climate data are available from individual researchers, local, State, and Federal agencies, and from large electronic repositories such as the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Researchers attempting to make use of available data are faced with a series of challenges that include: (1) identifying potential data sources; (2) acquiring data; (3) establishing data quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) protocols; and (4) implementing robust gap filling techniques. This paper addresses these challenges by providing: (1) a summary of the available climate data in Hawai'i including a detailed description of the various meteorological observation networks and data accessibility, and (2) a quality controlled meteorological dataset across the Hawaiian Islands for the 25-year period 1990-2014. The dataset draws on observations from 471 climate stations and includes rainfall, maximum and minimum surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, downward shortwave and longwave radiation data.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

PubMed

Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

1992-01-24

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Fourth National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and Climate Program Science Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreins, E. R. (Editor)

1979-01-01

The NASA Weather and Climate Program has two major thrusts. The first involves the development of experimental and prototype operational satellite systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring and understanding the atmosphere. The second thrust involves basic scientific investigation aimed at studying the physical and chemical processes which control weather and climate. This fourth science review concentrated on the scientific research rather than the hardware development aspect of the program. These proceedings contain 65 papers covering the three general areas: severe storms and local weather research, global weather, and climate.

Climate controls on streamflow variability in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wise, E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; McCabe, G. J., Jr.; Pederson, G. T.; St-Jacques, J. M.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River's hydroclimatic variability presents a challenge for water managers, who must balance many competing demands on the system. Water resources in the Missouri River Basin (MRB) have increasingly been challenged by the droughts and floods that have occurred over the past several decades and the potential future exacerbation of these extremes by climate change. Here, we use observed and modeled hydroclimatic data and estimated natural flow records to describe the climatic controls on streamflow in the upper and lower portions of the MRB, examine atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with high- and low-flow years, and investigate trends in climate and streamflow over the instrumental period. Results indicate that the two main source regions for total outflow, in the uppermost and lowermost parts of the basin, are under the influence of very different sets of climatic controls. Winter precipitation, impacted by changes in zonal versus meridional flow from the Pacific Ocean, as well as spring precipitation and temperature, play a key role in surface water supply variability in the upper basin. Lower basin flow is significantly correlated with precipitation in late spring and early summer, indicative of Atlantic-influenced circulation variability affecting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The upper basin, with decreasing snowpack and streamflow and warming spring temperatures, will be less likely to provide important flow supplements to the lower basin in the future.

Climatic Controls on Forest Productivity in Western North America; Variability, Covariability, and Projected Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Sparrow, S.; Massey, N.

2016-12-01

The forests of western North America serve as a carbon sink sequestering carbon and slowing the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Though still positive, the rate of net carbon uptake has been in decline over the past two decades. Regional drought has been shown to slow forest productivity and net carbon uptake despite warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. With drought conditions projected to increase in frequency and severity under climate change there is concern that these forests' capacity as an effective carbon sink will continue to decrease in the future. To investigate how changes in regional hydroclimate may affect future carbon uptake in western US forests we dynamically downscaled global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3P with the land surface scheme MOSES2. We generated a 100-member ensemble of simulations for an historical period (1985-2015) and mid-21st century period (2030-2060) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We evaluated the effects of regional changes in atmospheric moisture demand, seasonality of water supply, and water stress on forest productivity and carbon uptake. We investigated how these changes in hydroclimate interact with the relaxing of temperature controls. This work can inform future adaptation efforts through improving our understanding of climatic controls on forest carbon sequestration.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

CHANGING CLIMATE AND PHOTOBIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Global biogeochemistry plays a critical role in controlling life processes, climate and their interactions, including effects on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent evidence indicates that the light-driven part of aquatic biogeochemical cycles is being altered by in...

Reinvestigating an interval of the English Wealden (non-marine Lower Cretaceous): Integrated analysis for palaeoenvironmental and climate cyclicities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sames, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Although increasing over the last years, relatively few studies on changing palaeoenvironments and climate cycles in non-marine archives of the Cretaceous greenhouse Earth do exist. This is primarily a result of the nature of non-marine or terrestrial deposits - strong lateral facies change on local scales and the strong local to regional control of deposition - as well as the lack of high-resolution stratigraphy and correlations to the marine record. On the other hand, major advances in the refinements of the Cretaceous timescale now facilitate the correlation and dating of short-term sea-level records and their supposable relation to climate and/or tectonic events with appropriate resolution, i.e. on Milankovitch scales. Innovations and progress in non-marine bio-, magneto- and chemostratigraphy as well as growing data on Lower and Upper Cretaceous non-marine successions are promising towards approaches for supraregional correlation of these deposits and their appropriate correlation to the Cretaceous marine standard sections. However, convincing evidence for orbitally (climate) driven cyclicity in non-marine Lower Cretaceous deposits is thus far sparse. The non-marine Wealden deposits of England have been used eponymous for widely distributed similar Lower Cretaceous non-marine facies, and they are a 'classical' example for a Mesozoic non-marine succession for which depositional cycles have been suggested since the 1970s, including the famous ostracod 'faunicycles' by F.W. Anderson, but so far lack convincing analyses and remain to be tested. The project 'Lower Cretaceous Climate and Non-marine Stratigraphy (LCCNS)' funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) analyses a chosen interval of the English Wealden at the Clock House Brickworks pit (near Capel, Surrey, England, UK) for orbitally/climate driven cyclicities with an interdisciplinary methodology: micropalaeontology, sedimentology, and geochemistry. Ostracod (aquatic microcrustaceans with calcified shell) faunal composition changes are correlated with the variation of geochemical and sedimentological parameters through time to draw conclusions regarding the controlling (palaeoenvironmental) factors and their regulating mechanisms ('climate changes', orbital cycles?), while magnetostratigraphy is used for chronological control. First results will be presented here. The crucial point of the approach is that the fluctuating evolution of a Wealden ecosystem over time is presumed to be climatically (and thus, orbitally) controlled and that the cyclic changes deducible from multiple proxies in its geologic record can be tested and used for cyclostratigraphy.

Distal and proximal predictors of snacking at work: A daily-survey study.

PubMed

Sonnentag, Sabine; Pundt, Alexander; Venz, Laura

2017-02-01

This study aimed at examining predictors of healthy and unhealthy snacking at work. As proximal predictors we looked at food-choice motives (health motive, affect-regulation motive); as distal predictors we included organizational eating climate, emotional eating, and self-control demands at work. We collected daily survey data from 247 employees, over a period of 2 workweeks. Multilevel structural equation modeling showed that organizational eating climate predicted health as food-choice motive, whereas emotional eating and self-control demands predicted affect regulation as food-choice motive. The health motive, in turn, predicted consuming more fruits and more cereal bars and less sweet snacks; the affect-regulation motive predicted consuming more sweet snacks. Findings highlight the importance of a health-promoting eating climate within the organization and point to the potential harm of high self-control demands at work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach.

PubMed

Goin, Dana E; Rudolph, Kara E; Ahern, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011-2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California's drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. This result was robust to several sensitivity analyses, including a negative control.

Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach

PubMed Central

Rudolph, Kara E.; Ahern, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011–2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California’s drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. This result was robust to several sensitivity analyses, including a negative control. PMID:28977002

Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects: A Case Study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Wu, Rui; Dai, Hancheng; Geng, Yong; Xie, Yang; Masui, Toshihiko; Liu, Zhiqing; Qian, Yiying

2017-05-02

PM 2.5 pollution-related diseases cause additional medical expenses and work time loss, leading to macroeconomic impact in high PM 2.5 concentration areas. Previous economic impact assessments of air pollution focused on benefits from environmental regulations while ignoring climate policies. In this study, we examine the health and economic impacts from PM 2.5 pollution under various air pollution control strategies and climate policies scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai. The estimation adopts an integrated model combining a Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, exposure-response functions (ERFs), and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that without control measures, Shanghai's mortality caused by PM 2.5 pollution are estimated to be 192 400 cases in 2030 and the work time loss to be 72.1 h/cap annually. The corresponding GDP values and welfare losses would be approximately 2.26% and 3.14%, respectively. With an estimated control cost of 0.76% of local GDP, Shanghai would gain approximately 1.01% of local GDP through local air pollution control measures and climate policies. Furthermore, the application of multiregional integrated control strategies in neighboring provinces would be the most effective in reducing PM 2.5 concentration in Shanghai, leading to only 0.34% of GDP loss. At the sectoral level, labor-intensive sectors suffer more output loss from PM 2.5 pollution. Sectors with the highest control costs include power generation, iron and steel, and transport. The results indicate that the combination of multiregional integrated air pollution control strategies and climate policies would be cost-beneficial for Shanghai.

Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Rahel, Frank J; Olden, Julian D

2008-06-01

Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Firn, Jennifer; Maggini, Ramona; Chadès, Iadine; Nicol, Sam; Walters, Belinda; Reeson, Andy; Martin, Tara G; Possingham, Hugh P; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Ponce-Reyes, Rocio; Carwardine, Josie

2015-11-01

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulation of Greenhouse Climate Monitoring and Control with Wireless Sensor Network and Event-Based Control

PubMed Central

Pawlowski, Andrzej; Guzman, Jose Luis; Rodríguez, Francisco; Berenguel, Manuel; Sánchez, José; Dormido, Sebastián

2009-01-01

Monitoring and control of the greenhouse environment play a decisive role in greenhouse production processes. Assurance of optimal climate conditions has a direct influence on crop growth performance, but it usually increases the required equipment cost. Traditionally, greenhouse installations have required a great effort to connect and distribute all the sensors and data acquisition systems. These installations need many data and power wires to be distributed along the greenhouses, making the system complex and expensive. For this reason, and others such as unavailability of distributed actuators, only individual sensors are usually located in a fixed point that is selected as representative of the overall greenhouse dynamics. On the other hand, the actuation system in greenhouses is usually composed by mechanical devices controlled by relays, being desirable to reduce the number of commutations of the control signals from security and economical point of views. Therefore, and in order to face these drawbacks, this paper describes how the greenhouse climate control can be represented as an event-based system in combination with wireless sensor networks, where low-frequency dynamics variables have to be controlled and control actions are mainly calculated against events produced by external disturbances. The proposed control system allows saving costs related with wear minimization and prolonging the actuator life, but keeping promising performance results. Analysis and conclusions are given by means of simulation results. PMID:22389597

Simulation of greenhouse climate monitoring and control with wireless sensor network and event-based control.

PubMed

Pawlowski, Andrzej; Guzman, Jose Luis; Rodríguez, Francisco; Berenguel, Manuel; Sánchez, José; Dormido, Sebastián

2009-01-01

Monitoring and control of the greenhouse environment play a decisive role in greenhouse production processes. Assurance of optimal climate conditions has a direct influence on crop growth performance, but it usually increases the required equipment cost. Traditionally, greenhouse installations have required a great effort to connect and distribute all the sensors and data acquisition systems. These installations need many data and power wires to be distributed along the greenhouses, making the system complex and expensive. For this reason, and others such as unavailability of distributed actuators, only individual sensors are usually located in a fixed point that is selected as representative of the overall greenhouse dynamics. On the other hand, the actuation system in greenhouses is usually composed by mechanical devices controlled by relays, being desirable to reduce the number of commutations of the control signals from security and economical point of views. Therefore, and in order to face these drawbacks, this paper describes how the greenhouse climate control can be represented as an event-based system in combination with wireless sensor networks, where low-frequency dynamics variables have to be controlled and control actions are mainly calculated against events produced by external disturbances. The proposed control system allows saving costs related with wear minimization and prolonging the actuator life, but keeping promising performance results. Analysis and conclusions are given by means of simulation results.

Design and Implementation of a Thermal Load Reduction System for a Hyundai Sonata PHEV for Improved Range

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rugh, John P; Kreutzer, Cory J; Scott, Matthew

Increased adoption of electric-drive vehicles requires overcoming hurdles including limited vehicle range. Vehicle cabin heating and cooling demand for occupant climate control requires energy from the main battery and has been shown to significantly degrade vehicle range. During peak cooling and heating conditions, climate control can require as much as or more energy than propulsion. As part of an ongoing project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and project partners Hyundai America Technical Center, Inc., Gentherm, Pittsburgh Glass Works, PPG Industries, Sekisui, 3 M, and Hanon Systems developed a thermal load reduction system to reduce the range penalty associated with electricmore » vehicle climate control. Solar reflective paint, solar control glass, heated and cooled/ventilated seats, heated surfaces, and a heated windshield with door demisters were integrated into a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Cold weather field-testing was conducted in Fairbanks, Alaska, and warm weather testing was conducted in Death Valley, California, to assess the system performance in comparison to the baseline production vehicle. In addition, environmental chamber testing at peak heating and cooling conditions was performed to assess the performance of the system in standardized conditions compared to the baseline. Experimental results are presented in this paper, providing quantitative data to automobile manufacturers on the impact of climate control thermal load reduction technologies to increase the advanced thermal technology adoption and market penetration of electric drive vehicles.« less

Performance Evaluation of a Thermal Load Reduction System in a Hyundai Sonata PHEV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P; Titov, Eugene V

Increased adoption of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming hurdles including limited vehicle range. Vehicle cabin heating and cooling demand for occupant climate control requires energy from the main battery and has been shown to significantly degrade vehicle range. During peak cooling and heating conditions, climate control can require as much or more energy as propulsion. As part of an ongoing project, NREL and project partners Hyundai America Technical Center, Inc. (HATCI), Gentherm , Pittsburgh Glass Works (PGW), PPG Industries, Sekisui, 3M, and Hanon Systems developed a thermal load reduction system in order to reduce the range penalty associated with electricmore » vehicle climate control. Solar reflective paint, solar control glass, heated and cooled/ventilated seats, heated surfaces, and heated windshield with door demisters were integrated into a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Cold weather field-testing was conducted in Fairbanks, Alaska while warm weather testing was conducted in Death Valley, California to assess the system performance in comparison to the baseline production vehicle. In addition, environmental chamber testing at peak heating and cooling conditions was performed to assess the performance of the system in standardized conditions compared to the baseline. Experimental results are presented in this paper providing quantitative data to automobile manufacturers on the impact of climate control thermal load reduction technologies to increase the advanced thermal technology adoption and market penetration of electric drive vehicles.« less

Climate Control on Tree Growth at the Upper and Lower Treelines: A Case Study in the Qilian Mountains, Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Yang, Bao; He, Minhui; Melvin, Thomas M.; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R.

2013-01-01

It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region’s local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation) across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m). During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains. PMID:23874871

Climate Change Predominantly Caused U.S. Soil Water Storage Decline from 2003 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Ma, C.; Song, X.; Gao, L.; Liu, M.; Xu, X.

2016-12-01

The water storage in soils is a fundamental resource for natural ecosystems and human society, while it is highly variable due to its complicated controlling factors in a changing climate; therefore, understanding water storage variation and its controlling factors is essential for sustaining human society, which relies on water resources. Although we are confident for water availability at global scale, the regional-scale water storage and its controlling factors are not fully understood. A number of researchers have reported that water resources are expected to diminish as climate continues warming in the 21stcentury, which will further influence human and ecological systems. However, few studies to date have fully quantitatively examined the water balances and its individual controlling mechanisms in the conterminous US. In this study, we integrated the time-series data of water storage and evapotranspiration derived from satellite imageries, regional meteorological data, and social-economic water consumption, to quantify water storage dynamics and its controlling factors across the conterminous US from 2003 to 2014. The water storage decline was found in majority of conterminous US, with the largest decline in southwestern US. Net atmospheric water input, which is difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, could explain more than 50% of the inter-annual variation of water storage variation in majority of US with minor contributions from human water consumption. Climate change, expressed as precipitation decreases and warming, made dominant contribution to the water storage decline in the conterminous U.S. from 2003 to 2014.

A hierarchical perspective of plant diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarr, Daniel; Hibbs, D.E.; Huston, M.

2005-01-01

Predictive models of plant diversity have typically focused on either a landscapea??s capacity for richness (equilibrium models), or on the processes that regulate competitive exclusion, and thus allow species to coexist (nonequilibrium models). Here, we review the concepts and purposes of a hierarchical, multiscale model of the controls of plant diversity that incorporates the equilibrium model of climatic favorability at macroscales, nonequilibrium models of competition at microscales, and a mixed model emphasizing environmental heterogeneity at mesoscales. We evaluate the conceptual model using published data from three spatially nested datasets: (1) a macroscale analysis of ecoregions in the continental and western U.S.; (2) a mesoscale study in California; and (3) a microscale study in the Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon and California. At the macroscale (areas from 3889 km2 to 638,300 km2), climate (actual evaporation) was a strong predictor of tree diversity (R2 = 0.80), as predicted by the conceptual model, but area was a better predictor for vascular plant diversity overall (R2 = 0.38), which suggests different types of plants differ in their sensitivity to climatic controls. At mesoscales (areas from 1111 km2 to 15,833 km2 ), climate was still an important predictor of richness (R2 = 0.52), but, as expected, topographic heterogeneity explained an important share of the variance (R2 = 0.19), showed positive correlations with diversity of trees, shrubs, and annual and perennial herbs, and was the primary predictor of shrub and annual plant species richness. At microscales (0.1 ha plots), spatial patterns of diversity showed a clear unimodal pattern along a climatea??driven productivity gradient and a negative relationship with soil fertility. The strong decline in understory and total diversity at the most productive sites suggests that competitive controls, as predicted, can override climatic controls at this scale. We conclude that this hierarchical, multiscale model provides a sound basis to understand and analyze plant species diversity. Specifically, future research should employ the principles in this paper to explore climatic controls on species richness of different life forms, better quantify environmental heterogeneity in landscapes, and analyze how these largea??scale factors interact with local nonequilibrium dynamics to maintain plant diversity.

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage for Seasonal Thermal Energy Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rostampour, Vahab; Bloemendal, Martin; Keviczky, Tamas

2017-04-01

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) systems allow storing large quantities of thermal energy in subsurface aquifers enabling significant energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions. This is achieved by injection and extraction of water into and from saturated underground aquifers, simultaneously. An ATES system consists of two wells and operates in a seasonal mode. One well is used for the storage of cold water, the other one for the storage of heat. In warm seasons, cold water is extracted from the cold well to provide cooling to a building. The temperature of the extracted cold water increases as it passes through the building climate control systems and then gets simultaneously, injected back into the warm well. This procedure is reversed during cold seasons where the flow direction is reversed such that the warmer water is extracted from the warm well to provide heating to a building. From the perspective of building climate comfort systems, an ATES system is considered as a seasonal storage system that can be a heat source or sink, or as a storage for thermal energy. This leads to an interesting and challenging optimal control problem of the building climate comfort system that can be used to develop a seasonal-based energy management strategy. In [1] we develop a control-oriented model to predict thermal energy balance in a building climate control system integrated with ATES. Such a model however cannot cope with off-nominal but realistic situations such as when the wells are completely depleted, or the start-up phase of newly installed wells, etc., leading to direct usage of aquifer ambient temperature. Building upon our previous work in [1], we here extend the mathematical model for ATES system to handle the above mentioned more realistic situations. Using our improved models, one can more precisely predict system behavior and apply optimal control strategies to manage the building climate comfort along with energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions. [1] V. Rostampour and T. Keviczky, "Probabilistic Energy Management for Building Climate Comfort in Smart Thermal Grids with Seasonal Storage Systems," arXiv [math.OC], 10-Nov-2016.

Predicted Thermal Responses of Military Working Dog (MWD) to Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Protective Kennel Enclosure

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

meteorological conditions. More specifically, climate chamber studies of the chemical protective kennel cover were conducted over a range of...responses to predict how long the dog could safely remain in the enclosure for various ambient environmental conditions. Climate chamber studies of...Engineering Center (NSRDEC) was tested in a climate - controlled chamber to quantify its insulation and vapor permeability properties. A schematic of

Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

2014-01-01

Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.

PubMed

Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska

2017-09-11

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.

Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

2016-06-01

Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Tjaden, Nils Benjamin; van den Bos, Sanne; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2014-01-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions. PMID:24658412

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture

PubMed Central

Waring, Bonnie G.; Rocca, Jennifer D.; Kivlin, Stephanie N.

2017-01-01

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40–70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration–moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall. PMID:28559315

Producing a Climate-Quality Database of Global Upper Ocean Profile Temperatures - The IQuOD (International Quality-controlled Ocean Database) Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintall, J.; Cowley, R.; Palmer, M. D.; Domingues, C. M.; Suzuki, T.; Ishii, M.; Boyer, T.; Goni, G. J.; Gouretski, V. V.; Macdonald, A. M.; Thresher, A.; Good, S. A.; Diggs, S. C.

2016-02-01

Historical ocean temperature profile observations provide a critical element for a host of ocean and climate research activities. These include providing initial conditions for seasonal-to-decadal prediction systems, evaluating past variations in sea level and Earth's energy imbalance, ocean state estimation for studying variability and change, and climate model evaluation and development. The International Quality controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) initiative represents a community effort to create the most globally complete temperature profile dataset, with (intelligent) metadata and assigned uncertainties. With an internationally coordinated effort organized by oceanographers, with data and ocean instrumentation expertise, and in close consultation with end users (e.g., climate modelers), the IQuOD initiative will assess and maximize the potential of an irreplaceable collection of ocean temperature observations (tens of millions of profiles collected at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, since 1772) to fulfil the demand for a climate-quality global database that can be used with greater confidence in a vast range of climate change related research and services of societal benefit. Progress towards version 1 of the IQuOD database, ongoing and future work will be presented. More information on IQuOD is available at www.iquod.org.

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Child Centred Approach to Climate Change and Health Adaptation through Schools in Bangladesh: A Cluster Randomised Intervention Trial

PubMed Central

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2015-01-01

Background Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. People are getting educated at different levels on how to deal with potential impacts. One such educational mode was the preparation of a school manual, for high school students on climate change and health protection endorsed by the National Curriculum and Textbook Board, which is based on a 2008 World Health Organization manual. The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of the manual in increasing the knowledge level of the school children about climate change and health adaptation. Methods This cluster randomized intervention trial involved 60 schools throughout Bangladesh, with 3293 secondary school students participating. School upazilas (sub-districts) were randomised into intervention and control groups, and two schools from each upazila were randomly selected. All year seven students from both groups of schools sat for a pre-test of 30 short questions of binary response. A total of 1515 students from 30 intervention schools received the intervention through classroom training based on the school manual and 1778 students of the 30 control schools did not get the manual but a leaflet on climate change and health issues. Six months later, a post-intervention test of the same questionnaire used in the pre-test was performed at both intervention and control schools. The pre and post test scores were analysed along with the demographic data by using random effects model. Results None of the various school level and student level variables were significantly different between the control and intervention group. However, the intervention group had a 17.42% (95% CI: 14.45 to 20.38, P = <0.001) higher score in the post-test after adjusting for pre-test score and other covariates in a multi-level linear regression model. Conclusions These results suggest that school-based intervention for climate change and health adaptation is effective for increasing the knowledge level of school children on this topic. PMID:26252381

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States - Climatic and geologic framework: Chapter A in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stonestrom, David A.; Harrill, James R.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly but irregularly control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Anthropogenically induced climate change likely will reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations, and perhaps through increased drought. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge directly through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area, and indirectly through climate change. High ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions.

Bivalve aquaculture-environment interactions in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Filgueira, Ramón; Guyondet, Thomas; Comeau, Luc A; Tremblay, Réjean

2016-12-01

Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom-up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve-phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom-up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top-down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top-down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial patterns of simulated transpiration response to climate variability in a snow dominated mountain ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, L.; Tague, C.L.; Baron, Jill S.

2008-01-01

Transpiration is an important component of soil water storage and stream-flow and is linked with ecosystem productivity, species distribution, and ecosystem health. In mountain environments, complex topography creates heterogeneity in key controls on transpiration as well as logistical challenges for collecting representative measurements. In these settings, ecosystem models can be used to account for variation in space and time of the dominant controls on transpiration and provide estimates of transpiration patterns and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model was used to assess elevational differences in sensitivity of transpiration rates to the spatiotemporal variability of climate variables across the Upper Merced River watershed, Yosemite Valley, California, USA. At the basin scale, predicted annual transpiration was lowest in driest and wettest years, and greatest in moderate precipitation years (R2 = 0.32 and 0.29, based on polynomial regression of maximum snow depth and annual precipitation, respectively). At finer spatial scales, responsiveness of transpiration rates to climate differed along an elevational gradient. Low elevations (1200-1800 m) showed little interannual variation in transpiration due to topographically controlled high soil moistures along the river corridor. Annual conifer stand transpiration at intermediate elevations (1800-2150 m) responded more strongly to precipitation, resulting in a unimodal relationship between transpiration and precipitation where highest transpiration occurred during moderate precipitation levels, regardless of annual air temperatures. Higher elevations (2150-2600 m) maintained this trend, but air temperature sensitivities were greater. At these elevations, snowfall provides enough moisture for growth, and increased temperatures influenced transpiration. Transpiration at the highest elevations (2600-4000 m) showed strong sensitivity to air temperature, little sensitivity to precipitation. Model results suggest elevational differences in vegetation water use and sensitivity to climate were significant and will likely play a key role in controlling responses and vulnerability of Sierra Nevada ecosystems to climate change. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Child Centred Approach to Climate Change and Health Adaptation through Schools in Bangladesh: A Cluster Randomised Intervention Trial.

PubMed

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2015-01-01

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. People are getting educated at different levels on how to deal with potential impacts. One such educational mode was the preparation of a school manual, for high school students on climate change and health protection endorsed by the National Curriculum and Textbook Board, which is based on a 2008 World Health Organization manual. The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of the manual in increasing the knowledge level of the school children about climate change and health adaptation. This cluster randomized intervention trial involved 60 schools throughout Bangladesh, with 3293 secondary school students participating. School upazilas (sub-districts) were randomised into intervention and control groups, and two schools from each upazila were randomly selected. All year seven students from both groups of schools sat for a pre-test of 30 short questions of binary response. A total of 1515 students from 30 intervention schools received the intervention through classroom training based on the school manual and 1778 students of the 30 control schools did not get the manual but a leaflet on climate change and health issues. Six months later, a post-intervention test of the same questionnaire used in the pre-test was performed at both intervention and control schools. The pre and post test scores were analysed along with the demographic data by using random effects model. None of the various school level and student level variables were significantly different between the control and intervention group. However, the intervention group had a 17.42% (95% CI: 14.45 to 20.38, P = <0.001) higher score in the post-test after adjusting for pre-test score and other covariates in a multi-level linear regression model. These results suggest that school-based intervention for climate change and health adaptation is effective for increasing the knowledge level of school children on this topic.

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Crous, Kristine Y; Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Sharwood, Robert E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Ghannoum, Oula

2018-05-27

Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16-38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T opt ) of photosynthesis and J max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T opt of J max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.

PubMed

Suwannatrai, A; Pratumchart, K; Suwannatrai, K; Thinkhamrop, K; Chaiyos, J; Kim, C S; Suwanweerakamtorn, R; Boonmars, T; Wongsaroj, T; Sripa, B

2017-01-01

Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.

Climate variability, social and environmental factors, and ross river virus transmission: research development and future research needs.

PubMed

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J

2008-12-01

Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management.

Personal cooling in hot workings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuck, M.A.

1999-07-01

The number of mines experiencing climatic difficulties worldwide is increasing. In a large number of cases these climatic difficulties are confined to working areas only or to specific locations within working areas. Thus the problem in these mines can be described as highly localized, due to a large extent not to high rock temperatures but due to machine heat loads and low airflow rates. Under such situations conventional means of controlling the climate can be inapplicable and/or uneconomic. One possible means of achieving the required level of climatic control, to ensure worker health and safety whilst achieving economic gains, ismore » to adopt a system of active man cooling. This is the reverse of normal control techniques where the cooling power of the ventilating air is enhanced in some way. Current methods of active man cooling include ice jackets and various umbilical cord type systems. These have numerous drawbacks, such as limited useful exposure times and limitations to worker mobility. The paper suggests an alternative method of active man cooling than those currently available and reviews the design criteria for such a garment. The range of application of such a garment is discussed, under both normal and emergency situations.« less

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions.

PubMed

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E; Armour, Kyle C; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Chepfer, Helene; Docquier, David; Jonko, Alexandra; Kushner, Paul J; Lecomte, Olivier; Massonnet, François; Park, Hyo-Seok; Pithan, Felix; Svensson, Gunilla; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range of feedbacks, offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.

Determination of Uniaxial Compressive Strength of Ankara Agglomerate Considering Fractal Geometry of Blocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coskun, Aycan; Sonmez, Harun; Ercin Kasapoglu, K.; Ozge Dinc, S.; Celal Tunusluoglu, M.

2010-05-01

The uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of rock material is a crucial parameter to be used for design stages of slopes, tunnels and foundations to be constructed in/on geological medium. However, preparation of high quality cores from geological mixtures or fragmented rocks such as melanges, fault rocks, coarse pyroclastic rocks, breccias and sheared serpentinites is often extremely difficult. According to the studies performed in literature, this type of geological materials may be grouped as welded and unwelded birmocks. Success of preparation of core samples from welded bimrocks is slightly better than unwelded ones. Therefore, some studies performed on the welded bimrocks to understand the mechanical behavior of geological mixture materials composed of stronger and weaker components (Gokceoglu, 2002; Sonmez et al., 2004; Sonmez et al., 2006; Kahraman, et al., 2008). The overall strength of bimrocks are generally depends on strength contrast between blocks and matrix; types and strength of matrix; type, size, strength, shape and orientation of blocks and volumetric block proportion. In previously proposed prediction models, while UCS of unwelded bimrocks may be determined by decreasing the UCS of matrix considering the volumetric block proportion, the welded ones can be predicted by considering both UCS of matrix and blocks together (Lindquist, 1994; Lindquist and Goodman, 1994; Sonmez et al., 2006 and Sonmez et al., 2009). However, there is a few attempts were performed about the effect of blocks shape and orientation on the strength of bimrock (Linqduist, 1994 and Kahraman, et al., 2008). In this study, Ankara agglomerate, which is composed of andesite blocks and surrounded weak tuff matrix, was selected as study material. Image analyses were performed on bottom, top and side faces of cores to identify volumetric block portions. In addition to the image analyses, andesite blocks on bottom, top and side faces were digitized for determination of fractal dimensions. To determine fractal dimensions of more than hundred andesite blocks in cores, a computer program namely FRACRUN were developed. Fractal geometry has been used as practical and popular tool to define particularly irregular shaped bodies in literature since the theory of fractal was developed by Mandelbrot (1967) (Hyslip and Vallejo, 1997; Kruhl and Nega, 1996; Bagde etal., 2002; Gulbin and Evangulova, 2003; Pardini, 2003; Kolay and Kayabali, 2006; Hamdi, 2008; Zorlu, 2009 and Sezer, 2009). Although there are some methods to determine fractal dimensions, square grid-cell count method for 2D and segment count method for 1D were followed in the algorithm of FRACRUN. FRACRUN has capable of determine fractal dimensions of many closed polygons on a single surface. In the study, a database composed of uniaxial compressive strength, volumetric block proportion, fractal dimensions and number of blocks for each core was established. Finally, prediction models were developed by regression analyses and compared with the empirical equations proposed by Sonmez et al. (2006). Acknowledgement This study is a product of ongoing project supported by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey - Project No: 108Y002). References Bagde, M.N., Raina, A.K., Chakraborty, A.K., Jethwa, J.L., 2002. Rock mass characterization by fractal dimension. Engineering Geology 63, 141-155. Gokceoglu, C., 2002. A fuzzy triangular chart to predict the uniaxial compressive strength of the Ankara agglomerates from their petrographic composition. Engineering Geology, 66 (1-2), 39-51. Gulbin, Y.L., Evangulova, E.B., 2003. Morphometry of quartz aggregates in granites: fractal images referring to nucleation and growth processes. Mathematical Geology 35 (7), 819-833 Hamdi, E., 2008. A fractal description of simulated 3D discontinuity networks. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 41, 587-599. Hyslip, J.P., Vallejo, L.E., 1997. Fractals analysis of the roughness and size distribution of granular materials. Engineering Geology 48, 231-244. Kahraman, S., Alber, M., Fener, M. and Gunaydin, O. 2008. Evaluating the geomechanical properties of Misis fault breccia (Turkey). Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci, 45, (8), 1469-1479. Kolay, E., Kayabali, K., 2006. Investigation of the effect of aggregate shape and surface roughness on the slake durability index using the fractal dimension approach. Engineering Geology 86, 271-294. Kruhl, J.H., Nega, M., 1996. The fractal shape of sutured quartz grain boundaries: application as a geothermometer. Geologische Rundschau 85, 38-43. Lindquist E.S. 1994. The strength, deformation properties of melange. PhD thesis, University of California, Berkeley, 1994. 264p. Lindquist E.S. and Goodman R.E. 1994. The strength and deformation properties of the physical model m!elange. In: Nelson PP, Laubach SE, editors. Proceedings of the First North American Rock Mechanics Conference (NARMS), Austin, Texas. Rotterdam: AA Balkema; 1994. Pardini, G., 2003. Fractal scaling of surface roughness in artificially weathered smectite rich soil regoliths. Geoderma 117, 157-167. Sezer E., 2009. A computer program for fractal dimension (FRACEK) with application on type of mass movement characterization. Computers and Geosciences (doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2009.04.006). Sonmez H, Tuncay E, and Gokceoglu C., 2004. Models to predict the uniaxial compressive strength and the modulus of elasticity for Ankara Agglomerate. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 41 (5), 717-729. Sonmez, H., Gokceoglu, C., Medley, E.W., Tuncay, E., and Nefeslioglu, H.A., 2006. Estimating the uniaxial compressive strength of a volcanic bimrock. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 43 (4), 554-561. Zorlu K., 2008. Description of the weathering states of building stones by fractal geometry and fuzzy inference system in the Olba ancient city (Southern Turkey). Engineering Geology 101 (2008) 124-133.

An investigation of safety climate in OHSAS 18001-certified and non-certified organizations.

PubMed

Ghahramani, Abolfazl

2016-09-01

Many organizations worldwide have implemented Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) 18001 in their premises because of the assumed positive effects of this standard on safety. Few studies have analyzed the effect of the safety climate in OHSAS 18001-certified organizations. This case-control study used a new safety climate questionnaire to evaluate three OHSAS 18001-certified and three non-certified manufacturing companies in Iran. Hierarchical regression indicated that the safety climate was influenced by OHSAS implementation and by safety training. Employees who received safety training had better perceptions of the safety climate and its dimensions than other respondents within the certified companies. This study found that the implementation of OHSAS 18001 does not guarantee improvement of the safety climate. This study also emphasizes the need for high-quality safety training for employees of the certified companies to improve the safety climate.

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thiele, O. (Editor); Schiffer, R. A. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

Safety climate and the distracted driving experiences of truck drivers.

PubMed

Swedler, David I; Pollack, Keshia M; Agnew, Jacqueline

2015-07-01

For truck drivers, distracted driving is a workplace behavior that increases occupational injury risk. We propose safety climate as an appropriate lens through which researchers can examine occupational distracted driving. Using a mixed methods study design, we surveyed truck drivers using the Safety Climate Questionnaire (SCQ) complemented by semi-structured interviews of experts on distracted driving and truck safety. Safety climate was assessed by using the entire SCQ as an overall climate score, followed by factor analysis that identified the following safety climate factors: Communications and Procedures; Management Commitment; and Work Pressure. In multivariate regression, the overall safety climate scale was associated with having ever experienced a crash and/or distraction-involved swerving. Interview participants described how these SCQ constructs could affect occupational distracted driving. To reduce distraction-related crashes in their organizations, management can adhere to safe policies and procedures, invest in engineering controls, and develop safer communication procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Links between media communication and local perceptions of climate change in an indigenous society

PubMed Central

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Méndez-López, María Elena; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; McBride, Marissa F.; Pyhälä, Aili; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Reyes-García, Victoria

2015-01-01

Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane’, an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached. Specifically, we conducted a Randomized Evaluation with a sample of 424 household heads in 12 villages to test to what degree local accounts of climate change are influenced by externally influenced awareness. We randomly assigned villages to a treatment and control group, conducted workshops on climate change with villages in the treatment group, and evaluated the effects of information dissemination on individual climate change perceptions. Results of this work suggest that providing climate change information through participatory workshops does not noticeably influence individual perceptions of climate change. Such findings stress the challenges involved in translating between local and scientific framings of climate change, and gives cause for concern about how to integrate indigenous peoples and local knowledge with global climate change policy debates. PMID:26166919

Links between media communication and local perceptions of climate change in an indigenous society.

PubMed

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Méndez-López, María Elena; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; McBride, Marissa F; Pyhälä, Aili; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Reyes-García, Victoria

2015-07-01

Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane', an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached. Specifically, we conducted a Randomized Evaluation with a sample of 424 household heads in 12 villages to test to what degree local accounts of climate change are influenced by externally influenced awareness. We randomly assigned villages to a treatment and control group, conducted workshops on climate change with villages in the treatment group, and evaluated the effects of information dissemination on individual climate change perceptions. Results of this work suggest that providing climate change information through participatory workshops does not noticeably influence individual perceptions of climate change. Such findings stress the challenges involved in translating between local and scientific framings of climate change, and gives cause for concern about how to integrate indigenous peoples and local knowledge with global climate change policy debates.

Flood Control Structures Research Program. Annotated Bibliography on Grade Control Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

evaluating the effects of geology, geomorphology, soils, land use, and climate on runoff and sediment production from major source areas; (4...Otto, and ,t:iji, Ahmed. 1987. "Theoret- ical Flow Model for Drop Structures," -’. aulic ’ngineering, Proceed- ings of the 1987 National Confere’,ce on...Facilities for Unique Flood Problems," Journal of the-Waterways and Harbors Division, ASCE, Vol 97, No. WWI, pp 185-203. The unusual climatic

Climate Controls on Tree Growth Across Species and Sites in Northeastern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwan, M. R.; Guiterman, C. H.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2016-12-01

Understanding how forests will respond to ongoing climate change is important for conservation and resource management. Conifer forests in the US Southwest are predicted to be particularly at risk from increased drought and higher temperatures projected to occur in the region. Tree-ring studies shed light on how trees respond to climate, but there remains considerable uncertainty as to which climate factors are most important, and which species are most at risk. Confounding climate and environmental factors, biological differences among species, and biogeography often complicate cross-species analysis. Here we present a multi-species, multivariate analysis of tree growth response to climate variability. We analyze data from three coexisting conifer tree species at two sites near Canyon de Chelly, Arizona. We use a high-resolution PRISM gridded climate dataset to determine the growth responses across species and sites to temperature and precipitation. We identify both common and differential responses in our data and use these to infer possible risks these forest communities may face under a changing climate.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

Mixed Messages on Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grifo, F.; Gutman, B. L.; Veysey, D.; El Gamal, A.

2011-12-01

While the private sector has a strong interest in climate science, and much at stake as the world comes to terms with the impacts of climate change, their legacy of climate denial has left the public confused. A few companies openly reject the basic science that ties emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities to warming temperatures and other consequences. Many companies play into the confusion by boasting of their green strategies while lobbying against climate bills. Still others joined pro-climate coalitions while donating heavily to politicians who openly reject the science of climate change. Many companies stand to see their business greatly affected by regulations to control greenhouse gas emissions or directly by changing weather patterns, rising sea levels, and varying water availability. Public statements, political activity, and corporate affiliations reveal inconsistent corporate postures. Congress, individuals, and the private sector can all play critical roles in holding corporate America to a higher standard bringing more clarity to science based climate policy discussions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Arthur; Cayan, Daniel; Pierce, David

This project addressed the ability of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3 and CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and other models to simulate the processes involved in controlling winter storms affecting the U.S. West Coast as well as other precipitation processes in the climate system.

The seasonal-cycle climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marx, L.; Randall, D. A.

1981-01-01

The seasonal cycle run which will become the control run for the comparison with runs utilizing codes and parameterizations developed by outside investigators is discussed. The climate model currently exists in two parallel versions: one running on the Amdahl and the other running on the CYBER 203. These two versions are as nearly identical as machine capability and the requirement for high speed performance will allow. Developmental changes are made on the Amdahl/CMS version for ease of testing and rapidity of turnaround. The changes are subsequently incorporated into the CYBER 203 version using vectorization techniques where speed improvement can be realized. The 400 day seasonal cycle run serves as a control run for both medium and long range climate forecasts alsensitivity studies.

National, ready-to-use climate indicators calculation and dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desiato, F.; Fioravanti, G.; Fraschetti, P.; Perconti, W.; Toreti, A.

2010-09-01

In Italy, meteorological data necessary and useful for climate studies are collected, processed and archived by a wide range of national and regional institutions. As a result, the density of the stations, the length and frequency of the observations, the quality control procedures and the database structure vary from one dataset to the other. In order to maximize the use of those data for climate knowledge and climate change assessments, a computerized system for the collection, quality control, calculation, regular update and rapid dissemination of climate indicators (denominated SCIA) was developed. Along with the pieces of information provided by complete metadata, climate indicators consist of statistics (mean, extremes, date of occurrence, standard deviation) over ten-days, monthly and yearly time periods of meteorological variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, water balance, evapotranspitaton, degree-days, cloud cover, sea level pressure, solar radiation. In addition, normal values over thirty-year reference climatological periods and yearly anomalies are calculated and made available. All climate indicators, as well as their time series at a single location or spatial distribution at a selected time, are available through a dedicated web site (www.scia.sinanet.apat.it). In addition, secondary products like high resolution temperature maps obtained by kriging spatial interpolation, are made available. Over the last three years, about 40000 visitors accessed to the SCIA web site, with an average of 45 visitors per day. Most frequent visitors belong to categories like universities and research institutes; private companies and general public are present as well. Apart from research purposes, climate indicators disseminated through SCIA may be used in several socio-economic sectors like energy consumption, water management, agriculture, tourism and health. With regards to our activity, we base on these indicators for the estimation of climate trends needed for climate impact and vulnerability assessment over Italy, and as a contribution to the national communications to the UNFCCC. For this purpose, homogenization procedures are carried out on the longest and most complete time series, in order to filter out non-climatic signals; in addition, statistical models are applied for trend estimates on the most important climate indicators such as averages and extremes of temperature and precipitation.

Capturing Data Connections within the Climate Data Initiative to Support Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandran, R.; Bugbee, K.; Weigel, A. M.; Tilmes, C.

2015-12-01

The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) focuses on preparing the United States for the impacts of climate change by leveraging existing federal climate-relevant data to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship supporting national climate-change preparedness. To achieve these goals, relevant data was curated around seven thematic areas relevant to climate change resiliency. Data for each theme was selected by subject matter experts from various Federal agencies and collected in Data.gov at http://climate.data.gov. While the curation effort for each theme has been immensely valuable on its own, in the end, the themes essentially become a long directory or a list. Establishing valuable connections between datasets and their intended use is lost. Therefore, the user understands that the datasets in the list have been approved by the CDI subject matter experts but has less certainty when making connections between the various datasets and their possible applications. Additionally, the intended use of the curated list is overwhelming and can be difficult to interpret. In order to better address the needs of the CDI data end users, the CDI team has been developing a new controlled vocabulary that will assist in capturing connections between datasets. This new vocabulary will be implemented in the Global Change Information System (GCIS), which has the capability to link individual items within the system. This presentation will highlight the methodology used to develop the controlled vocabulary that will aid end users in both understanding and locating relevant datasets for their intended use.

Climatic and Landscape Influences on Fire Regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the Western United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

An improved understanding of the relative influences of climatic and landscape controls on multiple fire regime components is needed to enhance our understanding of modern fire regimes and how they will respond to future environmental change. To address this need, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of fire occurrence, size, and severity of large fires (> 405 ha) in the western United States from 1984–2010. We assessed the associations of these fire regime components with environmental variables, including short-term climate anomalies, vegetation type, topography, and human influences, using boosted regression tree analysis. Results showed that large fire occurrence, size, and severity each exhibited distinctive spatial and spatio-temporal patterns, which were controlled by different sets of climate and landscape factors. Antecedent climate anomalies had the strongest influences on fire occurrence, resulting in the highest spatial synchrony. In contrast, climatic variability had weaker influences on fire size and severity and vegetation types were the most important environmental determinants of these fire regime components. Topography had moderately strong effects on both fire occurrence and severity, and human influence variables were most strongly associated with fire size. These results suggest a potential for the emergence of novel fire regimes due to the responses of fire regime components to multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. Next-generation approaches for projecting future fire regimes should incorporate indirect climate effects on vegetation type changes as well as other landscape effects on multiple components of fire regimes. PMID:26465959

Synchronous Motions Across the Instrumental Climate Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carl, Peter

The Earth's climate system bears a rich variety of feedback mechanisms that may give rise to complex, evolving modal structures under internal and external control. Various types of synchronization may be identified in the system's motion when looking at representative time series of the instrumental period through the glasses of an advanced technique of sparse data approximation, the Matching Pursuit (MP) approach. To disentangle the emerging network of oscillatory modes to the degree that climate dynamics turns out to be separable, a large dictionary of "Gaussian logons," i.e. frequency modulated (FM) Gabor atoms, is applied. Though the extracted modes make up linear decompositions, this flexible analyzing signal matches highly nonlinear waveforms. Univariate analyses over the period 1870-1997 are presented of a set of customary time series in annual resolution, comprising global and regional climate, central European synoptic systems, German precipitation, and runoff of the Elbe river near Dresden. All the evidence from this first-generation MP-FM study, obtained in subsequent multivariate syntheses, points to dynamically excited regimes of an organized yet complex climate system under permanent change—perhaps a (pre)chaotic one at centennial timescales, suggesting a "chaos control" perspective on global climate dynamics and change. Findings and conclusions include, among others, internal structure of reconstructed insolation, the episodic nature of global warming as reflected in multidecadal temperature modes, their swarm of "interdomain" companions across the whole system that unveils an unknown regime character of interannual climate dynamics, and the apparent onset early in the 1990s of the present thermal stagnation.

Influence of Air Pollutant Emission Controls on the "Climate Penalty" in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, T.; Couzo, E. A.; Selin, N. E.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.

2016-12-01

Previous work has examined the so-called "climate penalty" (or benefit, where climate change leads to decreased pollutant concentrations) for the U.S. In particular, previous research has identified the role of changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and biogenic emissions, in altering concentrations of O3 and PM2.5, when emissions of air pollutant precursors are held constant. However, changes in emissions of those precursors can also affect the magnitude of climate penalty/benefit. The effect of changing air pollutant emissions on the climate penalty/benefit has not been systematically studied. Here, we estimate the U.S. climate penalty (for O3 and PM2.5) as a function of four different local (U.S.) non-GHG emissions scenarios using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model coupled to the MIT Integrated Global System Model linked to the Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Our base case scenario includes global and regional emissions for 2006. We conduct three sensitivity scenarios that adjust U.S. air pollutant precursor (non-GHG) emissions by -50%, +50%, and +100%; global emissions are kept at 2006 levels. This allows us to quantify the avoided climate penalty achieved by non-GHG emissions reductions. To capture inter-annual meteorological variability, our climate penalty calculations use 20-year averages for the present (1991-2010) and future (2091-2110) climate under a no-policy scenario. Consistent with previous work, we find a "climate penalty" for O3 and PM2.5 in U.S. by 2100 across all four scenarios. We also find a climate-related decrease in the concentration of NOx and nitrate, and an increase in black carbon, organic carbon and sulfate. Changes in ammonium are spatially inhomogeneous, with an increase in eastern U.S. and a decrease in middle and western U.S. When air pollutant precursor emissions increase, we find that the O3 "climate penalty" is enhanced. However, the response of the PM2.5 "climate penalty" to changed emissions differs spatially among U.S. regions. It increases with U.S. non-GHG emissions in the East, but decreases with the emissions in the West. We use these results to draw conclusions about whether (and where) U.S. emissions controls could have an additional and previously unquantified benefit in reducing projected climate penalties.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Bolton, Harvey; Fansler, Sarah J.

The effects of climate change on soil organic matter—its structure, microbial community, carbon storage, and respiration response—remain uncertain and widely debated. In addition, the effects of climate changes on ecosystem structure and function are often modulated or delayed, meaning that short-term experiments are not sufficient to characterize ecosystem responses. This study capitalized on a long-term reciprocal soil transplant experiment to examine the response of dryland soils to climate change. The two transplant sites were separated by 500 m of elevation on the same mountain slope in eastern Washington state, USA, and had similar plant species and soil types. We resampledmore » the original 1994 soil transplants and controls, measuring CO 2 production, temperature response, enzyme activity, and bacterial community structure after 17 years. Over a laboratory incubation of 100 days, reciprocally transplanted soils respired roughly equal cumulative amounts of carbon as non-transplanted controls from the same site. Soils transplanted from the hot, dry, lower site to the cooler and wetter (difference of -5 °C monthly maximum air temperature, +50 mm yr -1precipitation) upper site exhibited almost no respiratory response to temperature (Q10 of 1.1), but soils originally from the upper, cooler site had generally higher respiration rates. The bacterial community structure of transplants did not differ significantly from that of untransplanted controls, however. Slight differences in local climate between the upper and lower Rattlesnake locations, simulated with environmental control chambers during the incubation, thus prompted significant differences in microbial activity, with no observed change to bacterial structure. Lastly, these results support the idea that environmental shifts can influence soil C through metabolic changes, and suggest that microbial populations responsible for soil heterotrophic respiration may be constrained in surprising ways, even as shorter- and longer-term soil microbial dynamics may be significantly different under changing climate.« less

High-resolution dynamical downscaling of the future Alpine climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhinova, Denica; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph

2017-04-01

The Alpine region and Switzerland is a challenging area for simulating and analysing Global Climate Model (GCM) results. This is mostly due to the combination of a very complex topography and the still rather coarse horizontal resolution of current GCMs, in which not all of the many-scale processes that drive the local weather and climate can be resolved. In our study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale a GCM simulation to a resolution as high as 2 km x 2 km. WRF is driven by initial and boundary conditions produced with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the recent past (control run) and until 2100 using the RCP8.5 climate scenario (future run). The control run downscaled with WRF covers the period 1976-2005, while the future run investigates a 20-year-slice simulated for the 2080-2099. We compare the control WRF-CESM simulations to an observational product provided by MeteoSwiss and an additional WRF simulation driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, to estimate the bias that is introduced by the extra modelling step of our framework. Several bias-correction methods are evaluated, including a quantile mapping technique, to ameliorate the bias in the control WRF-CESM simulation. In the next step of our study these corrections are applied to our future WRF-CESM run. The resulting downscaled and bias-corrected data is analysed for the properties of precipitation and wind speed in the future climate. Our special interest focuses on the absolute quantities simulated for these meteorological variables as these are used to identify extreme events, such as wind storms and situations that can lead to floods.

Changes in autumn vegetation dormancy onset date and the climate controls across temperate ecosystems in China from 1982 to 2010.

PubMed

Yang, Yuting; Guan, Huade; Shen, Miaogen; Liang, Wei; Jiang, Lei

2015-02-01

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

U.S. Army Field Demonstration of the Single Common Powertrain Lubricant (SCPL)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

for a full 2-years without changes in the basic climate location demonstrating the SCPL’s extended drain capabilities. All three field...This was done to highlight any oil changes completed, whether they were required or not. 4.1 BASIC CLIMATE – FT. BENNING GA For the basic...were controlled tightly to determine actual changes . Table 20. Ft. Wainwright Arctic Climate Vehicle Fleet 4.2.2 Mileage Accumulation Overall

Constraining climatic controls on hillslope dynamics using a coupled model for the transport of soil and tracers: Application to loess-mantled hillslopes, Charwell River, South Island, New Zealand

Treesearch

J.J. Roering; P. Almond; P. Tonkin; J. McKean

2004-01-01

Landscapes reflect a legacy of tectonic and climatic forcing as modulated by surface processes. Because the morphologic characteristics of landscapes often do not allow us to uniquely define the relative roles of tectonic deformation and climate, additional constraints are required to interpret and predict landscape dynamics. Here we describe a coupled model for the...

Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

PubMed Central

Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel

2013-01-01

Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Changing patterns of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation and implications of climatic control on coal occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, T.L.; Peppers, R.A.

1984-01-01

Improved regional and interregional stratigraphic correlations of Pennsylvanian strata permit comparisons of vegetational changes in Euramerican coal swamps. The coal-swamp vegetation is known directly from in situ coal-ball peat deposits from more than 65 coals in the United States and Europe. Interpretations of coal-swamp floras on the basis of coal-ball peat studies are extended to broader regional and stratigraphic patterns by use of coal palynology. Objectives of the quantitative analyses of the vegetation in relation to coal are to determine the botanical constituents at the peat stage and their environmental implications for plant growth and peat accumulation. Morphological and paleoecological analyses provide a basis for deducing freshwater regimes of coal swamps. Changes in composition of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation are quire similar from one paralic coal region to another and show synchrony that is attributable to climate. Paleobotany and paleogeography of the Euramerican province indicate a moist tropical paleoclimate. Rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration were the variable climatic controls in the distribution of coal-swamp vegetation, peat accumulation and coal resources. In relative terms of climatic wetness the Pennsylvanian Period is divisible into five intervals, which include two relatively drier intervals that developed during the Lower-Middle and Middle-Upper Pennsylvanian transitions. The climate during Early Pennsylvanian time was moderately wet and the median in moisture availability. Early Middle Pennsylvanian was drier, probably seasonally dry-wet; late Middle Pennsylvanian was the wettest in the Midcontinent; early Late Pennsylvanian was the driest; and late Late Pennsylvanian was probably the wettest in the Dunkard Basin. The five climatic intervals represent a general means of dividing coal resources within each region into groups with similar botanical constituents and environments of peat accumulation. Regional differences in basinal geology and climate were significant variables, but the synchronous control of paleoclimate was of primary importance. ?? 1984.

Recent climatic events controlling the hydrological and the aquifer dynamics at arid areas: The case of Huasco River watershed, northern Chile.

PubMed

Salas, I; Herrera, C; Luque, J A; Delgado, J; Urrutia, J; Jordan, T

2016-11-15

The investigation assesses the influence of recent climatic events in the water resources and the aquifer dynamics in the Huasco watershed by means of the analysis of precipitation, streamflow and piezometric levels during the last 50years. These hydrological and hydrogeological parameters were evaluated by an exploratory geostatistical analysis (semivariogram) and a spectral analysis (periodogram). Specifically, the hydrological and hydrogeological data analyses are organized according to three sub-basins, the Del Carmen River (Section I), the El Tránsito River (Section II), and the Huasco River (Section III). Data ranges for rainfall are from 1961 to 2015, for streamflow from 1964 to 2015, and for groundwater levels from 1969 to 2014, available from Water Authority of Chile. The analyses allowed the identification of cycles in the hydrological and hydrogeological records. The study area is located in a transient climatic fringe where the convergence of several climatic systems can be identified in the hydrological and hydrogeological records. Results indicate that the nival areas and the small glaciers are especially important to the recharge processes in the Huasco watershed during the spring-summer snowmelting. Water reservoirs in the main aquifer (Section III) and in the Santa Juana dam are highly sensitive to ENSO oscillation climatic patterns. The main climatic events that control this record are the El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, the climatic influence of the westerlies and the SE extratropical moisture were also identified. Spectral analysis identified the presence of a 22.9-yearcycle in piezometric levels of the alluvial aquifer of the Huasco River. This cycle is consistent with the 22-year Hale solar cycle, suggesting the existence of a solar forcing controlling the ENSO oscillations. Moreover, semivariogram and spectral analysis identified a 10.65-yearcycle and a 9.2-yearcycle in groundwater, respectively, which were attributed to the strong mode of ENSO oscillations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Final Technical Report: The effects of climate, forest age, and disturbance history on carbon and water processes at AmeriFlux sites across gradients in Pacific Northwest forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Law, Beverly E.

Investigate the effects of disturbance and climate variables on processes controlling carbon and water processes at AmeriFlux cluster sites in semi-arid and mesic forests in Oregon. The observations were made at three existing and productive AmeriFlux research sites that represent climate and disturbance gradients as a natural experiment of the influence of climatic and hydrologic variability on carbon sequestration and resulting atmospheric CO 2 feedback that includes anomalies during the warm/ dry phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

PubMed

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

PubMed Central

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W. Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions. PMID:25874407

Understanding controls on cirque floor altitudes: Insights from Kamchatka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barr, Iestyn D.; Spagnolo, Matteo

2015-11-01

Glacial cirques reflect former regions of glacier initiation, and are therefore used as indicators of past climate. One specific way in which palaeoclimatic information is obtained from cirques is by analysing their elevations, on the assumption that cirque floor altitudes are a proxy for climatically controlled equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) during former periods of small scale (cirque-type) glaciation. However, specific controls on cirque altitudes are rarely assessed, and the validity of using cirque floor altitudes as a source of palaeoclimatic information remains open to question. In order to address this, here we analyse the distribution of 3520 ice-free cirques on the Kamchatka Peninsula (eastern Russia), and assess various controls on their floor altitudes. In addition, we analyse controls on the mid-altitudes of 503 modern glaciers, currently identifiable on the peninsula, and make comparisons with the cirque altitude data. The main study findings are that cirque floor altitudes increase steeply inland from the Pacific, suggesting that moisture availability (i.e., proximity to the coastline) played a key role in regulating the altitudes at which former (cirque-forming) glaciers were able to initiate. Other factors, such as latitude, aspect, topography, geology, and neo-tectonics seem to have played a limited (but not insignificant) role in regulating cirque floor altitudes, though south-facing cirques are typically higher than their north-facing equivalents, potentially reflecting the impact of prevailing wind directions (from the SSE) and/or variations in solar radiation on the altitudes at which former glaciers were able to initiate. Trends in glacier and cirque altitudes across the peninsula are typically comparable (i.e., values typically rise from both the north and south, inland from the Pacific coastline, and where glaciers/cirques are south-facing), yet the relationship with latitude is stronger for modern glaciers, and the relationship with distance to the coastline (and to a lesser degree with aspect) is notably weaker. These differences suggest that former glacier initiation (leading to cirque formation) was largely regulated by moisture availability (during winter months) and the control this exerted on accumulation; whilst the survival of modern glaciers is also strongly regulated by the variety of climatic and non-climatic factors that control ablation. As a result, relationships between modern glacier mid-altitudes and peninsula-wide climatic trends are more difficult to identify than when cirque floor altitudes are considered (i.e., cirque-forming glaciers were likely in climatic equilibrium, whereas modern glaciers may not be).

Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H

2017-10-16

There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over- and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change. © Crown copyright 2017.

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition.

PubMed

Bradford, Mark A; Veen, G F Ciska; Bonis, Anne; Bradford, Ella M; Classen, Aimee T; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Crowther, Thomas W; De Long, Jonathan R; Freschet, Gregoire T; Kardol, Paul; Manrubia-Freixa, Marta; Maynard, Daniel S; Newman, Gregory S; Logtestijn, Richard S P; Viketoft, Maria; Wardle, David A; Wieder, William R; Wood, Stephen A; van der Putten, Wim H

2017-12-01

Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO 2 . Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature and moisture), with the controlling effects of decomposers negligible at such broad spatial scales. Using a regional-scale litter decomposition experiment at six sites spanning from northern Sweden to southern France-and capturing both within and among site variation in putative controls-we find that contrary to predictions from the hierarchical model, decomposer (microbial) biomass strongly regulates decomposition at regional scales. Furthermore, the size of the microbial biomass dictates the absolute change in decomposition rates with changing climate variables. Our findings suggest the need for revision of the hierarchical model, with decomposers acting as both local- and broad-scale controls on litter decomposition rates, necessitating their explicit consideration in global biogeochemical models.

In the hot seat : Insolation and ENSO controls on vegetation productivity in tropical Africa inferred from NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. L.; Cohen, A. S.

2010-12-01

Threats to tropical biodiversity with serious and costly implications for both ecosystems and human well-being in Africa have led the IPCC to classify this region as vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change. Yet little is known about how vegetation communities respond to altered patterns of rainfall and evaporation. Paleoclimate records within the tropics can help answer questions about how vegetation response to climate forcing changes over time. However, sparse spatial extent of records and uncertainty surrounding the climate-vegetation relationship complicate these insights. Understanding the climatic mechanisms involved in landscape change at all temporal scales creates the need for quantitative constraints of the modern relationship between climatic controls, hydrology, and vegetation. Though modern observational data can help elucidate this relationship, low resolution and complicated rainfall/vegetation associations make them less than ideal. Satellite data of vegetation productivity (NDVI) with continuous high-resolution spatial coverage provides a robust and elegant tool for identifying the link between global and regional controls and vegetation. We use regression analyses of variables either previously proposed or potentially important in regulating Afro-tropical vegetation (insolation, out-going long-wave radiation, geopotential height, Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Monsoon precipitation, sea-level pressure, surface wind, sea-surface temperature) on continuous, time-varying spatial fields of 8km NDVI for sub-Saharan Africa. These analyses show the importance of global atmospheric controls in producing regional intra-annual and inter-annual vegetation variability. Dipole patterns emerge primarily correlated with both the seasonal and inter-annual extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Inter-annual ITCZ variability drives patterns in African vegetation resulting from the effect of insolation anomalies and ENSO events on atmospheric circulation rather than sea surface temperatures or teleconnections to mid/high latitudes. Global controls on tropical atmospheric circulation regulate vegetation throughout sub-Saharan Africa on many time scales through alteration of dry season length and moisture convergence, rather than precipitation amount.

Controls on the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial cycle, based on comparison between Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohling, E. J.; Liu, Q. S.; Roberts, A. P.; Stanford, J. D.; Rasmussen, S. O.; Langen, P. L.; Siddall, M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies have suggested a sound chronological correlation between the Hulu Cave record (East Asian monsoon) and Greenland ice-core records, which implies a dominant control of northern hemisphere climate processes on monsoon intensity. We present an objective, straightforward statistical evaluation that challenges this generally accepted paradigm for sub-orbital variability. We propose a more flexible, global interpretation, which takes into account a broad range of variability in the signal structures in the Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records, rather than a limited number of major transitions. Our analysis employs the layer-counted Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which was developed for Greenland records and has since been applied - via methane synchronisation - to the high-resolution δ 18O ice series from EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML). The GICC05 chronology allows these ice-core records to be compared to the U-Th dated Hulu Cave record within relatively narrow (˜3%) bounds of age uncertainty. Following previous suggestions, our proposed interpretation suggests that the East Asian monsoon is influenced by a combination of northern hemisphere 'pull' (which is more intense during boreal warm periods), and southern hemisphere 'push' (which is more intense monsoon during austral cold periods). Our analysis strongly suggests a dominant control on millennial-scale monsoon variability by southern hemisphere climate changes during glacial times when the monsoon is weak overall, and control by northern hemisphere climate changes during deglacial and interglacial times when the monsoon is strong. The deduced temporally variable relationship with southern hemisphere climate records offers a statistically more plausible reason for the apparent coincidence of major East Asian monsoon transitions with northern hemisphere (Dansgaard-Oeschger, DO) climate events during glacial times, than the traditional a priori interpretation of strict northern hemisphere control.

Adjoint-Based Climate Model Tuning: Application to the Planet Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Guokun; Köhl, Armin; Matei, Ion; Stammer, Detlef

2018-01-01

The adjoint method is used to calibrate the medium complexity climate model "Planet Simulator" through parameter estimation. Identical twin experiments demonstrate that this method can retrieve default values of the control parameters when using a long assimilation window of the order of 2 months. Chaos synchronization through nudging, required to overcome limits in the temporal assimilation window in the adjoint method, is employed successfully to reach this assimilation window length. When assimilating ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the observations of air temperature and the radiative fluxes are the most important data for adjusting the control parameters. The global mean net longwave fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere are significantly improved by tuning two model parameters controlling the absorption of clouds and water vapor. The global mean net shortwave radiation at the surface is improved by optimizing three model parameters controlling cloud optical properties. The optimized parameters improve the free model (without nudging terms) simulation in a way similar to that in the assimilation experiments. Results suggest a promising way for tuning uncertain parameters in nonlinear coupled climate models.

Climatic droplet keratopathy, exfoliation syndrome, and cataract.

PubMed Central

Resnikoff, S; Filliard, G; Dell'Aquila, B

1991-01-01

During a countrywide survey we assessed the prevalence of climatic droplet keratopathy (CDK) in a randomised sample of 2446 subjects representative of the population of the Republic of Djibouti. The investigation of the relationship between CDK and two diseases considered to be related to exposure to ultra-violet light--namely, exfoliation syndrome and cataract--was planned as a case control study. In the rural area prevalence of CDK was five times higher than in the urban one (2.8% vs 0.5%) and varied according to districts. The highest rates were observed where the inhabitants' activities were related to the sea. The case control study revealed that the opacification of the lens was about three times commoner in patients with CDK than in patients without CDK (p = 0.03) and that the exfoliation syndrome was about six times commoner in patients with CDK than in controls of similar age, sex, climatic conditions, and lens status (p = 0.02). Moreover, we noticed that the sequelae of corneal perforations were about 30 times commoner in patients with CDK than in controls of similar age (p less than 0.00001). PMID:1768663

Deciphering the History of Martian Volatiles: A Multi-Component Space Exploration Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chassefiere, E.

2000-07-01

To characterize Mars climate evolution requires to trace back the history of volatile species, including water. Indeed, atmospheric gases control, through UV-visible absorption and IR radiative transfer, the thermal structure of the atmosphere, the surface temperature, and ultimately the global hydrological system, which is a major component of the present Earth climate system. The composition and mass of the atmosphere is controlled by physical/chemical processes acting as sources (outgassing) or sinks (atmospheric escape, surface weathering, physical trapping in the subsurface). The history of volatiles is influenced by inner planet processes, like core convection which may give rise to a planetary-scale magnetic field able to withhold the atmosphere from the solar wind, inhibiting escape, or mantle convection, through outgassing and recycling of gas by geochemical cycles. Conversely, atmosphere may possibly retroact on the inner planet dynamical regime, for example if large amounts of liquid water are maintained at the surface by greenhouse effect, which could favour specific tectonism styles (like plate tectonism). The history of volatiles may therefore be related, not only to climate, but also to the thermal history of the inner planet, through a complicated chain of causes and effects. It is an essential link for reconstructing the global evolution of the Mars system. Focusing on climate, it appears that, provided the present climate system is understood and modelled, it must be possible to extrapolate to the past, provided the way the atmosphere evolved is known, as well as solar emission fluxes controlling thermal structure and escape.

Climate Change and Coastal Watersheds: Adaptation to Attain Clean Water Goals and Sustainable Coasts

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Clean Water Act contains a mandate to control pollution, to improve estuary habitat, to ensure healthy plant and animal communities, and to maintain human uses. This document highlights ways to meet these goals while adapting to climate impacts.

Health Education: Effects on Classroom Climate and Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Efstathiou, Nicholas T.; Risvas, Grigorios S.; Theodoraki, Eleni-Maria M.; Galanaki, Evangelia P.; Zampelas, Antonios D.

2016-01-01

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between classroom psychological climate and the physical and sedentary behaviour of primary school students after the implementation of an innovative education programme regarding nutrition and physical activity. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: Study…

Public Health and Climate Change Adaptation at the Federal Level: One Agency’s Response to Executive Order 13514

PubMed Central

Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change. PMID:24432931

Public health and climate change adaptation at the federal level: one agency's response to Executive Order 13514.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

2014-03-01

Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change.

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

PubMed Central

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.; Ferrier, Simon; Lorenz, David J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa. PMID:26962143

Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model - Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogutu, K. B. Z.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.; Nyandwi, C.; Manene, M. M.; Muthama, J. N.

2015-04-01

This study uses the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model developed in Part 1 to investigate economic aspects of deforestation control and carbon sequestration in forests, as well as the efficiency of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies as policy measures for climate change mitigation. We assume - as in Part 1 - that replacement of one technology with another occurs in terms of a logistic law, so that the same law also governs the dynamics of reduction in carbon dioxide emission using CCS technologies. In order to take into account the effect of deforestation control, a slightly more complex description of the carbon cycle than in Part 1 is needed. Consequently, we add a biomass equation into the CoCEB model and analyze the ensuing feedbacks and their effects on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Integrating biomass into the CoCEB and applying deforestation control as well as CCS technologies has the following results: (i) low investment in CCS contributes to reducing industrial carbon emissions and to increasing GDP, but further investment leads to a smaller reduction in emissions, as well as in the incremental GDP growth; and (ii) enhanced deforestation control contributes to a reduction in both deforestation emissions and in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, thus reducing the impacts of climate change and contributing to a slight appreciation of GDP growth. This effect is however very small compared to that of low-carbon technologies or CCS. We also find that the result in (i) is very sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs, while to the contrary, the results for deforestation control are less sensitive.

A framework to assess landscape structural capacity to provide regulating ecosystem services in West Africa.

PubMed

Inkoom, Justice Nana; Frank, Susanne; Greve, Klaus; Fürst, Christine

2018-03-01

The Sudanian savanna landscapes of West Africa are amongst the world's most vulnerable areas to climate change impacts. Inappropriate land use and agriculture management practices continuously impede the capacity of agricultural landscapes to provide ecosystem services (ES). Given the absence of practical assessment techniques to evaluate the landscape's capacity to provide regulating ES in this region, the goal of this paper is to propose an integrative assessment framework which combines remote sensing, geographic information systems, expert weighting and landscape metrics-based assessment. We utilized Analytical Hierarchical Process and Likert scale for the expert weighting of landscape capacity. In total, 56 experts from several land use and landscape management related departments participated in the assessment. Further, we adapted the hemeroby concept to define areas of naturalness while landscape metrics including Patch Density, Shannon's Diversity, and Shape Index were utilized for structural assessment. Lastly, we tested the reliability of expert weighting using certainty measurement rated by experts themselves. Our study focused on four regulating ES including flood control, pest and disease control, climate control, and wind erosion control. Our assessment framework was tested on four selected sites in the Vea catchment area of Ghana. The outcome of our study revealed that highly heterogeneous landscapes have a higher capacity to provide pest and disease control, while less heterogeneous landscapes have a higher potential to provide climate control. Further, we could show that the potential capacities to provide ecosystem services are underestimated by 15% if landscape structural aspects assessed through landscape metrics are not considered. We conclude that the combination of adapted land use and an optimized land use pattern could contribute considerably to lower climate change impacts in West African agricultural landscapes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Could geoengineering research help answer one of the biggest questions in climate science?: GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH

DOE PAGES

Wood, Robert; Ackerman, Thomas; Rasch, Philip J.; ...

2017-06-22

Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the radiative forcing of climate, and hinders our ability to determine Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases. Representation of aerosol–cloud interactions in global models is particularly challenging because these interactions occur on typically unresolved scales. Observational studies show influences of aerosol on clouds, but correlations between aerosol and clouds are insufficient to constrain aerosol forcing because of the difficulty in separating aerosol and meteorological impacts. In this commentary, we argue that this current impasse may be overcome with the development of approaches to conduct control experimentsmore » whereby aerosol particle perturbations can be introduced into patches of marine low clouds in a systematic manner. Such cloud perturbation experiments constitute a fresh approach to climate science and would provide unprecedented data to untangle the effects of aerosol particles on cloud microphysics and the resulting reflection of solar radiation by clouds. Here, the control experiments would provide a critical test of high-resolution models that are used to develop an improved representation aerosol–cloud interactions needed to better constrain aerosol forcing in global climate models.« less

Could geoengineering research help answer one of the biggest questions in climate science?: GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Robert; Ackerman, Thomas; Rasch, Philip J.

Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the radiative forcing of climate, and hinders our ability to determine Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases. Representation of aerosol–cloud interactions in global models is particularly challenging because these interactions occur on typically unresolved scales. Observational studies show influences of aerosol on clouds, but correlations between aerosol and clouds are insufficient to constrain aerosol forcing because of the difficulty in separating aerosol and meteorological impacts. In this commentary, we argue that this current impasse may be overcome with the development of approaches to conduct control experimentsmore » whereby aerosol particle perturbations can be introduced into patches of marine low clouds in a systematic manner. Such cloud perturbation experiments constitute a fresh approach to climate science and would provide unprecedented data to untangle the effects of aerosol particles on cloud microphysics and the resulting reflection of solar radiation by clouds. Here, the control experiments would provide a critical test of high-resolution models that are used to develop an improved representation aerosol–cloud interactions needed to better constrain aerosol forcing in global climate models.« less

Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; Nicolau, Alex

Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N 2O, CH 4, HFCs, CFCs, and O 3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfullymore » implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O 3, N 2O, NO y and CH 4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.« less

What Has Caused Desertification in China?

PubMed

Feng, Qi; Ma, Hua; Jiang, Xuemei; Wang, Xin; Cao, Shixiong

2015-11-03

Desertification is the result of complex interactions among various factors, including climate change and human activities. However, previous research generally focused on either meteorological factors associated with climate change or human factors associated with human activities, and lacked quantitative assessments of their interaction combined with long-term monitoring. Thus, the roles of climate change and human factors in desertification remain uncertain. To understand the factors that determine whether mitigation programs can contribute to desertification control and vegetation cover improvements in desertified areas of China, and the complex interactions that affect their success, we used a pooled regression model based on panel data to calculate the relative roles of climate change and human activities on the desertified area and on vegetation cover (using the normalized-difference vegetation index, NDVI, which decreases with increasing desertification) from 1983 to 2012. We found similar effect magnitudes for socioeconomic and environmental factors for NDVI but different results for desertification: socioeconomic factors were the dominant factor that affected desertification, accounting for 79.3% of the effects. Climate change accounted for 46.6 and 20.6% of the effects on NDVI and desertification, respectively. Therefore, desertification control programs must account for the integrated effects of both socioeconomic and natural factors.

What Has Caused Desertification in China?

PubMed Central

Feng, Qi; Ma, Hua; Jiang, Xuemei; Wang, Xin; Cao, Shixiong

2015-01-01

Desertification is the result of complex interactions among various factors, including climate change and human activities. However, previous research generally focused on either meteorological factors associated with climate change or human factors associated with human activities, and lacked quantitative assessments of their interaction combined with long-term monitoring. Thus, the roles of climate change and human factors in desertification remain uncertain. To understand the factors that determine whether mitigation programs can contribute to desertification control and vegetation cover improvements in desertified areas of China, and the complex interactions that affect their success, we used a pooled regression model based on panel data to calculate the relative roles of climate change and human activities on the desertified area and on vegetation cover (using the normalized-difference vegetation index, NDVI, which decreases with increasing desertification) from 1983 to 2012. We found similar effect magnitudes for socioeconomic and environmental factors for NDVI but different results for desertification: socioeconomic factors were the dominant factor that affected desertification, accounting for 79.3% of the effects. Climate change accounted for 46.6 and 20.6% of the effects on NDVI and desertification, respectively. Therefore, desertification control programs must account for the integrated effects of both socioeconomic and natural factors. PMID:26525278

Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

The effect of executive walk rounds on nurse safety climate attitudes: A randomized trial of clinical units

PubMed Central

Thomas, Eric J; Sexton, J Bryan; Neilands, Torsten B; Frankel, Allan; Helmreich, Robert L

2005-01-01

Background Executive walk rounds (EWRs) are a widely used but unstudied activity designed to improve safety culture in hospitals. Therefore, we measured the impact of EWRs on one important part of safety culture – provider attitudes about the safety climate in the institution. Methods Randomized study of EWRs for 23 clinical units in a tertiary care teaching hospital. All providers except physicians participated. EWRs were conducted at each unit by one of six hospital executives once every four weeks for three visits. Providers were asked about their concerns regarding patient safety and what could be done to improve patient safety. Suggestions were tabulated and when possible, changes were made. Provider attitudes about safety climate measured by the Safety Climate Survey before and after EWRs. We report mean scores, percent positive scores (percentage of providers who responded four or higher on a five point scale (agree slightly or agree strongly), and the odds of EWR participants agreeing with individual survey items when compared to non-participants. Results Before EWRs the mean safety climate scores for nurses were similar in the control units and EWR units (78.97 and 76.78, P = 0.458) as were percent positive scores (64.6% positive and 61.1% positive). After EWRs the mean safety climate scores were not significantly different for all providers nor for nurses in the control units and EWR units (77.93 and 78.33, P = 0.854) and (56.5% positive and 62.7% positive). However, when analyzed by exposure to EWRs, nurses in the control group who did not participate in EWRs (n = 198) had lower safety climate scores than nurses in the intervention group who did participate in an EWR session (n = 85) (74.88 versus 81.01, P = 0.02; 52.5% positive versus 72.9% positive). Compared to nurses who did not participate, nurses in the experimental group who reported participating in EWRs also responded more favorably to a majority of items on the survey. Conclusion EWRs have a positive effect on the safety climate attitudes of nurses who participate in the walk rounds sessions. EWRs are a promising tool to improve safety climate and the broader construct of safety culture. PMID:15823204

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Hii, Yien Ling; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-03-01

Dengue is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Climate-based dengue early warning may be a simple, low-cost, and effective tool for enhancing surveillance and control. Scientific studies on climate and dengue in local context form the basis for advancing the development of a climate-based early warning system. This study aims to review the current status of scientific studies in climate and dengue and the prospect or challenges of such research on a climate-based dengue early warning system in a dengue-endemic country, taking Malaysia as a case study. We reviewed the relationship between climate and dengue derived from statistical modeling, laboratory tests, and field studies. We searched electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and the World Health Organization publications, and assessed climate factors and their influence on dengue cases, mosquitoes, and virus and recent development in the field of climate and dengue. Few studies in Malaysia have emphasized the relationship between climate and dengue. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity are associated with dengue; however, these relationships were not consistent. Climate change projections for Malaysia show a mounting risk for dengue in the future. Scientific studies on climate and dengue enhance dengue surveillance in the long run. It is essential for institutions in Malaysia to promote research on climate and vector-borne diseases to advance the development of climate-based early warning systems. Together, effective strategies that improve existing research capacity, maximize the use of limited resources, and promote local-international partnership are crucial for sustaining research on climate and health.

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

DOE PAGES

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.; ...

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less

Climate Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Eastern North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peteet, D. M.; Renik, B.; Maenza-Gmeich, T.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.

Fixing the Sky: Why the History of Climate Engineering Matters (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, J. R.

2010-12-01

What shall we do about climate change? Is a planetary-scale technological fix possible or desirable? The joint AMS and AGU “Policy Statement on Geoengineering the Climate System” (2009) recommends “Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social implications of geoengineering that integrates international, interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectives and includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather and climate.” I wrote Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control (Columbia University Press, 2010) with this recommendation in mind, to be fully accessible to scientists, policymakers, and the general public, while meeting or exceeding the scholarly standards of history. It is my intent, with this book, to bring history to bear on public policy issues.

AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability andmore » predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.« less

Managing Air Quality - Multi-Pollutant Planning and Control

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Describes how planning controls for multiple pollutants at the same time can save money and time and achieve significant benefits, and how control strategies can address both climate change and air quality.

Internal Roof and Attic Thermal Radiation Control Retrofit Strategies for Cooling-Dominated Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fallahi, A.; Duraschlag, H.; Elliott, D.

2013-12-01

This project evaluates the cooling energy savings and cost effectiveness of radiation control retrofit strategies for residential attics in U.S. cooling-dominated climates. Usually, in residential applications, radiation control retrofit strategies are applied below the roof deck or on top of the attic floor insulation. They offer an alternative option to the addition of conventional bulk insulation such as fiberglass or cellulose insulation. Radiation control is a potentially low-cost energy efficiency retrofit strategy that does not require significant changes to existing homes. In this project, two groups of low-cost radiation control strategies were evaluated for southern U.S. applications. One uses amore » radiant barrier composed of two aluminum foils combined with an enclosed reflective air space and the second uses spray-applied interior radiation control coatings (IRCC).« less

Internal Roof and Attic Thermal Radiation Control Retrofit Strategies for Cooling-Dominated Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fallahi, A.; Durschlag, H.; Elliott, D.

2013-12-01

This project evaluates the cooling energy savings and cost effectiveness of radiation control retrofit strategies for residential attics in U.S. cooling-dominated climates. Usually, in residential applications, radiation control retrofit strategies are applied below the roof deck or on top of the attic floor insulation. They offer an alternative option to the addition of conventional bulkinsulation such as fiberglass or cellulose insulation. Radiation control is a potentially low-cost energy efficiency retrofit strategy that does not require significant changes to existing homes. In this project, two groups of low-cost radiation control strategies were evaluated for southern U.S. applications. One uses a radiantmore » barrier composed of two aluminum foils combined with an enclosedreflective air space and the second uses spray-applied interior radiation control coatings (IRCC).« less

The origin of soil organic matter controls its composition and bioreactivity across a mesic boreal forest latitudinal gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohl, L.; Philben, M. J.; Edwards, K. A.; Podrebarac, F. A.; Jamie, W.; Ziegler, S. E.

2017-12-01

Warmer climates have been associated with reduced soil organic matter (SOM) bioreactivity, lower respiration rates at a given temperature, which is typically attributed to the presence of more decomposed SOM. Cross site studies, however, indicate that ecosystem regime shifts associated with long-term climate warming can affect SOM properties through changes in vegetation and plant litter inputs to soils. The relative importance of these two controls, diagenesis and inputs, on SOM properties as ecosystems experience climate warming remains poorly understood. To address this, we characterized the elemental, chemical (nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and total hydrolysable amino acids), and isotopic composition of plant litter and SOM across a well-constrained mesic boreal forest latitudinal transect in Atlantic Canada. Results across forest sites within each of three climate regions indicated that (1) climate history and diagenesis affect distinct parameters of SOM chemistry, (2) increases in SOM bioreactivity with latitude were associated with elevated proportions of carbohydrates relative to plant waxes and lignin, and (3) despite the common forest type across regions, differences in SOM chemistry by climate region were associated with chemically distinct litter inputs and not different degrees of diagenesis. Climate effects on vascular plant litter chemistry explained only part of the regional differences in SOM chemistry, most notably the higher protein content of SOM from warmer regions. Greater proportions of lignin and aliphatic compounds and smaller proportions of carbohydrates in warmer sites' soils were explained by the higher proportion of vascular plant relative to moss litter in the warmer forests. These results indicate that a climate induced decrease in the proportion of moss inputs will not only impact SOM chemistry but also increase the resistance of SOM to decomposition, thus significantly altering SOM cycling in these boreal forest soils.

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J.

2008-01-01

Background Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Results The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. Conclusions The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management. PMID:19079707

Groundwater in the Boreal Plains: How Climate and Geology Interact to Control Water Table Configurations in a Sub-Humid, Low-Relief Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hokanson, K. J.; Devito, K.; Mendoza, C. A.

2017-12-01

The Boreal Plain (BP) region of Canada, a landscape characterized by low-relief, a sub-humid climate and heterogeneous glacial landforms, is experiencing unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbance, including climate change and oil & gas operations. Understanding the controls on and the natural variability of water table position, and subsequently predicting changes in water table position under varying physical and climatic scenarios will become important as water security becomes increasingly threatened. The BP is composed of a mosaic of forestland, wetland, and aquatic land covers that contrast in dominant vegetation cover, evapotranspiration, and soil storage that, in turn, influence water table configurations. Additionally, these land-covers overlie heterogeneous glacial landforms with large contrasts in storage and hydraulic properties which, when coupled with wet-dry climate cycles, result in complex water table distributions in time and space. Several forestland-wetland-pond complexes were selected at the Utikuma Research Study Area (URSA) over three distinct surficial geologic materials (glacial fluvial outwash, stagnant ice moraine, lacustrine clay plain) to explore the roles of climate (cumulative departure from the long term yearly mean precipitation), geology, topographic position, and land cover on water table configurations over 15 years (2002 - 2016). In the absence of large groundwater flow systems, local relief and shallow low conductivity substrates promote the formation of near-surface water tables that are less susceptible to climate variation, regardless of topography. Furthermore, in areas of increased storage, wet and dry climate conditions can result in appreciably different water table configurations over time, ranging from mounds to hydraulic depressions, depending on the arrangement of land-covers, dominant surficial geology, and substrate layering.

Composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest respond to spatial climatic changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingli; Zhou, Yong; Zhou, Guangsheng; Xiao, Chunwang

2014-01-01

Although some studies have indicated that climate changes can affect Pinus koraiensis mixed forest, the responses of composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forests to climatic changes are unknown and the key climatic factors controlling the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest are uncertain. Field survey was conducted in the natural Pinus koraiensis mixed forests along a latitudinal gradient and an elevational gradient in Northeast China. In order to build the mathematical models for simulating the relationships of compositional and structural attributes of the Pinus koraiensis mixed forest with climatic and non-climatic factors, stepwise linear regression analyses were performed, incorporating 14 dependent variables and the linear and quadratic components of 9 factors. All the selected new models were computed under the +2°C and +10% precipitation and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenarios. The Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month were observed to be key climatic factors controlling the stand densities and total basal areas of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Increased summer temperatures and precipitations strongly enhanced the stand densities and total basal areas of broadleaf trees but had little effect on Pinus koraiensis under the +2°C and +10% precipitation scenario and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenario. These results show that the Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month are key climatic factors which shape the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Although the Pinus koraiensis would persist, the current forests dominated by Pinus koraiensis in the region would all shift and become broadleaf-dominated forests due to the dramatic increase of broadleaf trees under the future global warming and increased precipitation.

Groundwater nitrate pollution and climate change: learnings from a water balance-based analysis of several aquifers in a western Mediterranean region (Catalonia).

PubMed

Mas-Pla, Josep; Menció, Anna

2018-04-11

Climate change will affect the dynamics of the hydrogeological systems and their water resources quality; in particular nitrate, which is herein taken as a paradigmatic pollutant to illustrate the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. Based on climatic predictions of temperature and precipitation for the horizon of 2021 and 2050, as well as on land use distribution, water balances are recalculated for the hydrological basins of distinct aquifer systems in a western Mediterranean region as Catalonia (NE Spain) in order to determine the reduction of available water resources. Besides the fact that climate change will represent a decrease of water availability, we qualitatively discuss the modifications that will result from the future climatic scenarios and their impact on nitrate pollution according to the geological setting of the selected aquifers. Climate effects in groundwater quality are described according to hydrological, environmental, socio-economic, and political concerns. Water reduction stands as a major issue that will control stream-aquifer interactions and subsurface recharge, leading to a general modification of nitrate in groundwater as dilution varies. A nitrate mass balance model provides a gross estimation of potential nitrate evolution in these aquifers, and it points out that the control of the fertilizer load will be crucial to achieve adequate nitrate content in groundwater. Reclaimed wastewater stands as local reliable resource, yet its amount will only satisfy a fraction of the loss of available resources due to climate change. Finally, an integrated management perspective is necessary to avoid unplanned actions from private initiatives that will jeopardize the achievement of sustainable water resources exploitation under distinct hydrological scenarios.

Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

2017-04-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

Adaptations to Climate in Candidate Genes for Common Metabolic Disorders

PubMed Central

Hancock, Angela M; Witonsky, David B; Gordon, Adam S; Eshel, Gidon; Pritchard, Jonathan K; Coop, Graham; Di Rienzo, Anna

2008-01-01

Evolutionary pressures due to variation in climate play an important role in shaping phenotypic variation among and within species and have been shown to influence variation in phenotypes such as body shape and size among humans. Genes involved in energy metabolism are likely to be central to heat and cold tolerance. To test the hypothesis that climate shaped variation in metabolism genes in humans, we used a bioinformatics approach based on network theory to select 82 candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. We genotyped 873 tag SNPs in these genes in 54 worldwide populations (including the 52 in the Human Genome Diversity Project panel) and found correlations with climate variables using rank correlation analysis and a newly developed method termed Bayesian geographic analysis. In addition, we genotyped 210 carefully matched control SNPs to provide an empirical null distribution for spatial patterns of allele frequency due to population history alone. For nearly all climate variables, we found an excess of genic SNPs in the tail of the distributions of the test statistics compared to the control SNPs, implying that metabolic genes as a group show signals of spatially varying selection. Among our strongest signals were several SNPs (e.g., LEPR R109K, FABP2 A54T) that had previously been associated with phenotypes directly related to cold tolerance. Since variation in climate may be correlated with other aspects of environmental variation, it is possible that some of the signals that we detected reflect selective pressures other than climate. Nevertheless, our results are consistent with the idea that climate has been an important selective pressure acting on candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. PMID:18282109

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

National Intelligence Survey. British Borneo, Section 23, Weather and Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

1962-03-01

termed the autumn intermonsoon season. 2. Climatic controls The climate of British Borneo is primarily de - termined by the position of the large...temperature is near 0° F. ( — 18° C.) the year round and continues to de - crease with increasing altitude to approximately 55,000 feet, where it...below freezing. The actual rate of ice accretion de - creases with decreasing temperature. When air temperatures approach 0° F. ( — 18° C), the icing

Variation of a Lightning NOx Indicator for National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, William; Vant-Hull, B.; McCaul, E. W.; Peterson, H. S.

2014-01-01

Lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) indirectly influences our climate since these molecules are important in controlling the concentration of ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere [Huntrieser et al., 1998]. In support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, satellite Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS; Christian et al. [1999]; Cecil et al. [2014]) data is used to estimate LNOx production over the southern portion of the conterminous US for the 16 year period 1998-2013.

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

PubMed

Ji, Yingchao; Luo, Wen; Zhang, Ganyu; Wen, Junbao

2017-08-22

Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under historical climate, potential distribution area of EBR is larger than that of ESC, 46.67 × 10 6  km 2 and 35.65 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. For both ESC and EBR, climate change expanded the northern boundary of potential distributions northward approximately 600 km by the middle of 21st century, and 1000 km by the end of 21st century under RCP 8.5. However, the suitable range decreased to the south in the Southern Hemisphere because of heat stress. The modelled potential distributions of ESC and EBR in the United States demonstrated that the climate was suitable for both weevils. Therefore, considering only climate suitability, both ESC and EBR can be considered as potential biological control agents against A. altissima with some confidence that climatic conditions are likely suitable.

Holocene oscillations in temperature and salinity of the surface subpolar North Atlantic.

PubMed

Thornalley, David J R; Elderfield, Harry; McCave, I Nick

2009-02-05

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports warm salty surface waters to high latitudes, where they cool, sink and return southwards at depth. Through its attendant meridional heat transport, the AMOC helps maintain a warm northwestern European climate, and acts as a control on the global climate. Past climate fluctuations during the Holocene epoch ( approximately 11,700 years ago to the present) have been linked with changes in North Atlantic Ocean circulation. The behaviour of the surface flowing salty water that helped drive overturning during past climatic changes is, however, not well known. Here we investigate the temperature and salinity changes of a substantial surface inflow to a region of deep-water formation throughout the Holocene. We find that the inflow has undergone millennial-scale variations in temperature and salinity ( approximately 3.5 degrees C and approximately 1.5 practical salinity units, respectively) most probably controlled by subpolar gyre dynamics. The temperature and salinity variations correlate with previously reported periods of rapid climate change. The inflow becomes more saline during enhanced freshwater flux to the subpolar North Atlantic. Model studies predict a weakening of AMOC in response to enhanced Arctic freshwater fluxes, although the inflow can compensate on decadal timescales by becoming more saline. Our data suggest that such a negative feedback mechanism may have operated during past intervals of climate change.

Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

Dynamics of the Coupled Human-climate System Resulting from Closed-loop Control of Solar Geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Keith, David

2014-07-08

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM, in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response; this would also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. This feedback creates an emergent coupled human-climate system, with entirely new dynamics. In addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a simple box-diffusion dynamic model tomore » understand how changing feedback-control parameters and time delay affect the behavior of this coupled natural-human system, and verify these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain), but a delayed response needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to uncertain changes.« less

Methods for developing time-series climate surfaces to drive topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Susong, D.; Marks, D.; Garen, D.

1999-01-01

Topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models can accurately simulate both the development and melting of a seasonal snowcover in the mountain basins. To do this they require time-series climate surfaces of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and thermal radiation. If data are available, these parameters can be adequately estimated at time steps of one to three hours. Unfortunately, climate monitoring in mountain basins is very limited, and the full range of elevations and exposures that affect climate conditions, snow deposition, and melt is seldom sampled. Detailed time-series climate surfaces have been successfully developed using limited data and relatively simple methods. We present a synopsis of the tools and methods used to combine limited data with simple corrections for the topographic controls to generate high temporal resolution time-series images of these climate parameters. Methods used include simulations, elevational gradients, and detrended kriging. The generated climate surfaces are evaluated at points and spatially to determine if they are reasonable approximations of actual conditions. Recommendations are made for the addition of critical parameters and measurement sites into routine monitoring systems in mountain basins.Topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models can accurately simulate both the development and melting of a seasonal snowcover in the mountain basins. To do this they require time-series climate surfaces of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and thermal radiation. If data are available, these parameters can be adequately estimated at time steps of one to three hours. Unfortunately, climate monitoring in mountain basins is very limited, and the full range of elevations and exposures that affect climate conditions, snow deposition, and melt is seldom sampled. Detailed time-series climate surfaces have been successfully developed using limited data and relatively simple methods. We present a synopsis of the tools and methods used to combine limited data with simple corrections for the topographic controls to generate high temporal resolution time-series images of these climate parameters. Methods used include simulations, elevational gradients, and detrended kriging. The generated climate surfaces are evaluated at points and spatially to determine if they are reasonable approximations of actual conditions. Recommendations are made for the addition of critical parameters and measurement sites into routine monitoring systems in mountain basins.

Global Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Phenological Versus Meteorological Controls on Land-atmosphere Water and Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puma, Michael J.; Koster, Randal D.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2013-01-01

Phenological dynamics and their related processes strongly constrain land-atmosphere interactions, but their relative importance vis-à-vis meteorological forcing within general circulation models (GCMs) is still uncertain. Using an off-line land surface model, we evaluate leaf area and meteorological controls on gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, transpiration, and runoff at four North American sites, representing different vegetation types and background climates. Our results demonstrate that compared to meteorological controls, variation in leaf area has a dominant control on gross primary productivity, a comparable but smaller influence on transpiration, a weak influence on total evapotranspiration, and a negligible impact on runoff. Climate regime and characteristic variations in leaf area have important modulating effects on these relative controls, which vary depending on the fluxes and timescales of interest. We find that leaf area in energylimited evaporative regimes tends to exhibit greater control on annual gross primary productivity than in moisture-limited regimes, except when vegetation exhibits little interannual variation in leaf area. For transpiration, leaf area control is somewhat less in energylimited regimes and greater in moisture-limited regimes for maximum pentad and annual fluxes. These modulating effects of climate and leaf area were less clear for other fluxes and at other timescales. Our findings are relevant to land-atmosphere coupling in GCMs, especially considering that leaf area variations are a fundamental element of land use and land cover change simulations.

DEVELOPMENT AND MODELING OF REACTIVE BUILDING SYSTEMS: CLIMATE AND ILLUMINATION

EPA Science Inventory

Desirability barriers regarding the human comfort level still remain in the public acceptance of passive solar energy homes. The goal of this project is to model sensing climate control and illumination building systems as they apply to a zero-energy Midwest home. In develop...

INTERACTION OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE IN FUTURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON STORAGE AND RELEASE

EPA Science Inventory

The processes controlling total carbon (C) storage and release from the terrestrial biosphere are still poorly quantified. e conclude from analysis of paleodata and climate biome model output that terrestrial C exchanges since the last glacial maximum (LGM) were dominated by slow...

Responding to Misinformation about Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawrence, Eva K.; Estow, Sarah

2017-01-01

This study examined responses to climate change misinformation and messages designed to counter misinformation. Participants (N = 406) first responded to a social media post denying the existence of global warming and then were randomly assigned to read one of three responses to the original post (correction, collaboration, control). Participants…

Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management

Treesearch

Melissa S. Lucash; Robert M. Scheller; Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant

2017-01-01

Context Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape...

CLIMATE CONSTRAINTS AND ISSUES OF SCALE CONTROLLING REGIONAL BIOMES

EPA Science Inventory

The prosepct of climate change threatens to cause large changes in regional biomes. hese effects could be in the form of qualitative changes within biomes, as well as spatial changes in the boundaries of biomes. he boundaries, or ecotones, between biomes have been suggested as po...

Extending the soil moisture record of the climate reference network with machine learning

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture estimation is crucial for agricultural decision-support and a key component of hydrological and climatic research. Unfortunately, quality-controlled soil moisture time series data are uncommon before the most recent decade. However, time series data for precipitation are accessible at ...

Malaria early warning tool: linking inter-annual climate and malaria variability in northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Smith, Jason; Tahani, Lloyd; Bobogare, Albino; Bugoro, Hugo; Otto, Francis; Fafale, George; Hiriasa, David; Kazazic, Adna; Beard, Grant; Amjadali, Amanda; Jeanne, Isabelle

2017-11-21

Malaria control remains a significant challenge in the Solomon Islands. Despite progress made by local malaria control agencies over the past decade, case rates remain high in some areas of the country. Studies from around the world have confirmed important links between climate and malaria transmission. This study focuses on understanding the links between malaria and climate in Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, with a view towards developing a climate-based monitoring and early warning for periods of enhanced malaria transmission. Climate records were sourced from the Solomon Islands meteorological service (SIMS) and historical malaria case records were sourced from the National Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). A declining trend in malaria cases over the last decade associated with improved malaria control was adjusted for. A stepwise regression was performed between climate variables and climate-associated malaria transmission (CMT) at different lag intervals to determine where significant relationships existed. The suitability of these results for use in a three-tiered categorical warning system was then assessed using a Mann-Whitney U test. Of the climate variables considered, only rainfall had a consistently significant relationship with malaria in North Guadalcanal. Optimal lag intervals were determined for prediction using R 2 skill scores. A highly significant negative correlation (R = - 0.86, R 2  = 0.74, p < 0.05, n = 14) was found between October and December rainfall at Honiara and CMT in northern Guadalcanal for the subsequent January-June. This indicates that drier October-December periods are followed by higher malaria transmission periods in January-June. Cross-validation emphasized the suitability of this relationship for forecasting purposes [Formula: see text]  as did Mann-Whitney U test results showing that rainfall below or above specific thresholds was significantly associated with above or below normal malaria transmission, respectively. This study demonstrated that rainfall provides the best predictor of malaria transmission in North Guadalcanal. This relationship is thought to be underpinned by the unique hydrological conditions in northern Guadalcanal which allow sandbars to form across the mouths of estuaries which act to develop or increase stagnant brackish marshes in low rainfall periods. These are ideal habitats for the main mosquito vector, Anopheles farauti. High rainfall accumulations result in the flushing of these habitats, reducing their viability. The results of this study are now being used as the basis of a malaria early warning system which has been jointly implemented by the SIMS, NVBDCP and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Climatic and environmental controls on speleothem oxygen-isotope values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachniet, Matthew S.

2009-03-01

Variations in speleothem oxygen-isotope values ( δ18O) result from a complicated interplay of environmental controls and processes in the ocean, atmosphere, soil zone, epikarst, and cave system. As such, the controls on speleothem δ18O values are extremely complex. An understanding of the processes that control equilibrium and kinetic fractionation of oxygen isotopes in water and carbonate species is essential for the proper interpretation of speleothem δ18O as paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental proxies, and is best complemented by study of site-specific cave processes such as infiltration, flow routing, drip seasonality and saturation state, and cave microclimate, among others. This review is a process-based summary of the multiple controls on δ18O in the atmosphere, soil, epikarst, and speleothem calcite, illustrated with case studies. Primary controls of δ18O in the atmosphere include temperature and relative humidity through their role in the multiple isotope "effects". Variability and modifications of water δ18O values in the soil and epikarst zones are dominated by evaporation, mixing, and infiltration of source waters. The isotopically effective recharge into a cave system consists of those waters that participate in precipitation of CaCO 3, resulting in calcite deposition rates which may be biased to time periods with optimal dripwater saturation state. Recent modeling, experimental, and observational data yield insight into the significance of kinetic fractionation between dissolved carbonate phases and solid CaCO 3, and have implications for the 'Hendy' test. To assist interpretation of speleothem δ18O time series, quantitative and semi-quantitative δ18O-climate calibrations are discussed with an emphasis on some of the difficulties inherent in using modern spatial and temporal isotope gradients to interpret speleothems as paleoclimate proxy records. Finally, several case studies of globally significant speleothem paleoclimate records are discussed that show the utility of δ18O to reconstruct past climate changes in regions that have been typically poorly represented in paleoclimate records, such as tropical and subtropical terrestrial locations. The new approach to speleothem paleoclimatology emphasizes climate teleconnections between regions and attribution of forcing mechanisms. Such investigations allow paleoclimatologists to infer regional to global-scale climate dynamics.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996), Comparison of approaches for estimating time-averaged precipitation using data from the United States, Int. J. Cli- matol., 16, 1103-1115. 2

Social climate on alcohol in Rotterdam, The Netherlands: public opinion on drinking behaviour and alcohol control measures.

PubMed

Bongers, I M; van de Goor, I A; Garretsen, H F

1998-01-01

Research was undertaken regarding the Dutch climate on alcohol in 1994 and results were compared with earlier findings. It was found that the social climate on alcohol in The Netherlands can be characterized by 'moderation'. Over the years, drinking without problems has become more acceptable (and is even encouraged at times) whereas excessive drinking and consequent problems still meet strong disapproval. Opinions concerning alcohol control measures mirror this attitude. Measures such as the restriction of drinking in public places and raising the age limits are endorsed by the public. However, more people are now against restrictions on the general availability of alcohol. Although drink-driving has decreased over the years, its prevalence is still high, especially among those who are most at risk.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

PubMed Central

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2014-01-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

Inoculation with a psychrotrophic-thermophilic complex microbial agent accelerates onset and promotes maturity of dairy manure-rice straw composting under cold climate conditions.

PubMed

Gou, Changlong; Wang, Yuqiong; Zhang, Xiqing; Lou, Yujie; Gao, Yunhang

2017-11-01

The objective was to determine the effects of psychrotrophic-thermophilic complex microbial agent (PTCMA) comprised of a psychrotrophic bacterium consortium (PBC) and a thermophilic cellulolytic fungi consortium (TCFC), on composting in a cold climate. Mixtures of dairy manure and rice straw were inoculated with PTCMA, PBC, TCFC and sterile water (control) and composted at an initial ambient temperatures of -2 to 5°C. In compost piles inoculated with PBC or PTCMA, temperatures reached the thermophilic phase (>55°C) faster (8-11d) than piles inoculated with TCFC or control. Furthermore, compost inoculated with TCFC or PTCMA had greater decreases in total organic carbon and carbon-to-nitrogen ratios, as well as significant increases in total nitrogen, degradation of cellulose and lignin and germination index than PBC inoculation or Control compost. Consequently, inoculation with both (i.e. PTCMA) accelerated the onset and promoted maturity of composting under cold-climate conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What roles do team climate, roster control, and work life conflict play in shiftworkers' fatigue longitudinally?

PubMed

Pisarski, Anne; Barbour, Jennifer P

2014-05-01

The study aimed to examine shiftworkers fatigue and the longitudinal relationships that impact on fatigue such as team climate, work life conflict, control of shifts and shift type in shift working nurses. We used a quantitative survey methodology and analysed data with a moderated hierarchical multiple regression. After matching across two time periods 18 months apart, the sample consisted of 166 nurses from one Australian hospital. Of these nurses, 61 worked two rotating day shifts (morning & afternoon/evening) and 105 were rotating shiftworkers who worked three shifts (morning afternoon/evening and nights). The findings suggest that control over shift scheduling can have significant effects on fatigue for both two-shift and three-shift workers. A significant negative relationship between positive team climate and fatigue was moderated by shift type. At both Time 1 and Time 2, work life conflict was the strongest predictor of concurrent fatigue, but over time it was not. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Aspects of quality insurance in digitizing historical climate data in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mächel, H.; Behrends, J.; Kapala, A.

2010-09-01

This contribution presents some of the problems and offers solutions regarding the digitization of historical meteorological data, and explains the need for verification and quality control. For the assessment of changes in climate extremes, long-term and complete observational records with a high temporal resolution are needed. However, in most countries, including Germany, such climate data are rare. Therefore, in 2005, the German Weather Service launched a project to inventory and digitize historical daily climatic records in cooperation with the Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn. Experience with Optical Character Recognition (OCR) show that it is only of very limited use, as even printed tables (e.g. yearbooks) are not sufficiently recognized (10-20% error). In hand-written records, the recognition rate is about 50%. By comparing daily and monthly values, it is possible to auto-detect errors, but they can not be automatically corrected, since there is often more than one error per month. These erroneous data must then be controlled manually on an individual basis, which is significantly more error-prone than direct manual input. Therefore, both precipitation and climate station data are digitized manually. The time required to digitize one year of precipitation data (including the recording of daily precipitation amount and type, snow amount and type, and weather events such as thunder storms, fog, etc.) is equivalent to about five hours for one year of data. This involves manually typing, reformatting and quality control of the digitized data, as well as creating a digital photograph. For climate stations with three observations per day, the working time is 30-50 hours for one year of data, depending on the number of parameters and the condition of the documents. Several other problems occur when creating the digital records from historical observational data, some of which are listed below. Older records often used varying units and different conventions. For example, a value of 100 was added to the observed temperatures to avoid negative values. Furthermore, because standardization of the observations was very low when measurements began up to 200 years ago, the data often reflect a greater part of non-climatic influences. Varying daily observation times make it difficult to calculate a representative daily value. Even unconventional completed tables cost labor and requires experienced and trained staff. Data homogenization as well as both manual and automatic quality control may address some of these problems.

Pacing of deep marine sedimentation in the middle Eocene synorogenic Ainsa Basin, Spanish Pyrenees: deconvolving a 6myr record of tectonic and climate controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mac Niocaill, C.; Cantalejo, B.; Pickering, K. T.; Grant, M.; Johansen, K.

2016-12-01

The Middle Eocene thrust-top Ainsa Basin of Northern Spain preserves world-class exposures of deep-marine submarine fan and related deposits. Detailed paleomagnetic, micropaleontologic, and time-series analysis enable us to deconvolve, for the first time in any ancient deep-marine basin worldwide, both the pacing on deposition of the fine-grained interfan sediments and the main sandbodies (submarine fans) through the history of the deep-marine basin. Our magnetostratigraphy and faunal constraints provide a chronological framework for sedimentation in the basin. We use time-series analysis of a range of geochemical and sedimentologic data to identify likely climatic signals in the sedimentary archive. This has enabled us to test the likely importance of climate versus tectonics in controlling deposition. We show that the fine-grained interfan sedimentation preserves a dominant Milankovitch-like cyclicity, whereas the sandbodies (fans) reflect a complex interplay of controls such as tectonics and climate in the sediment source area, including shallow-marine staging areas for sediment redeposition into deeper water. These results not only provide critical information about the timing of substantial coarse clastic delivery into the Ainsa Basin but also give constraints on sediment flux over a 6 Myr window.

Climate drivers of the Amazon forest greening.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Hilker, Thomas; Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Sanchez, Alber; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Galvão, Lênio Soares; Wang, Yujie; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2017-01-01

Our limited understanding of the climate controls on tropical forest seasonality is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in modeling climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Combining leaf production, litterfall and climate observations from satellite and ground data in the Amazon forest, we show that seasonal variation in leaf production is largely triggered by climate signals, specifically, insolation increase (70.4% of the total area) and precipitation increase (29.6%). Increase of insolation drives leaf growth in the absence of water limitation. For these non-water-limited forests, the simultaneous leaf flush occurs in a sufficient proportion of the trees to be observed from space. While tropical cycles are generally defined in terms of dry or wet season, we show that for a large part of Amazonia the increase in insolation triggers the visible progress of leaf growth, just like during spring in temperate forests. The dependence of leaf growth initiation on climate seasonality may result in a higher sensitivity of these ecosystems to changes in climate than previously thought.

Climate patriots? Concern over climate change and other environmental issues in Australia.

PubMed

Tranter, Bruce; Lester, Libby

2017-08-01

Echoing the anti-pollution and resource conservation campaigns in the United States in the early-to-mid-twentieth century, some scholars advocate mobilising support for environmental issues by harnessing the notion of environmental patriotism. Taking action to reduce the impact of global warming has also been cast as a patriotic cause. Drawing upon quantitative data from a recent national survey, we examine the link between patriotism and environmental attitudes in Australia, focussing upon climate change. We find that patriotism has a largely neutral association with concern over environmental issues, with the exception of climate change and, to a lesser extent, wildlife preservation. Expressing concern over climate change appears to be unpatriotic for some Australians. Even after controlling for political party identification and other important correlates of environmental issue concerns, patriots are less likely than others to prioritise climate change as their most urgent environmental issue and less likely to believe that climate change is actually occurring.

Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Marinucci, Gino D.; Luber, George; Uejio, Christopher K.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to have several adverse health impacts. Managing these risks to public health requires an iterative approach. As with many risk management strategies related to climate change, using modeling to project impacts, engaging a wide range of stakeholders, and regularly updating models and risk management plans with new information—hallmarks of adaptive management—are considered central tenets of effective public health adaptation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a framework, entitled Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, to facilitate this process for public health agencies. Its five steps are laid out here. Following the steps laid out in BRACE will enable an agency to use the best available science to project likely climate change health impacts in a given jurisdiction and prioritize interventions. Adopting BRACE will also reinforce public health’s established commitment to evidence-based practice and institutional learning, both of which will be central to successfully engaging the significant new challenges that climate change presents. PMID:24991665

Air quality and climate--synergies and trade-offs.

PubMed

von Schneidemesser, Erika; Monks, Paul S

2013-07-01

Air quality and climate are often treated as separate science and policy areas. Air quality encompasses the here-and-now of pollutant emissions, atmospheric transformations and their direct effect on human and ecosystem health. Climate change deals with the drivers leading to a warmer world and the consequences of that. These two science and policy issues are inexorably linked via common pollutants, such as ozone (methane) and black carbon. This short review looks at the new scientific evidence around so-called "short-lived climate forcers" and the growing realisation that a way to meet short-term climate change targets may be through the control of "air quality" pollutants. None of the options discussed here can replace reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, which is required for any long-term climate change mitigation strategy. An overview is given of the underlying science, remaining uncertainties, and some of the synergies and trade-offs for addressing air quality and climate in the science and policy context.

Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, Ivan

2017-02-01

Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

Manager personality, manager service quality orientation, and service climate: test of a model.

PubMed

Salvaggio, Amy Nicole; Schneider, Benjamin; Nishii, Lisa H; Mayer, David M; Ramesh, Anuradha; Lyon, Julie S

2007-11-01

This article conceptually and empirically explores the relationships among manager personality, manager service quality orientation, and climate for customer service. Data were collected from 1,486 employees and 145 managers in grocery store departments (N = 145) to test the authors' theoretical model. Largely consistent with hypotheses, results revealed that core self-evaluations were positively related to managers' service quality orientation, even after dimensions of the Big Five model of personality were controlled, and that service quality orientation fully mediated the relationship between personality and global service climate. Implications for personality and organizational climate research are discussed. (c) 2007 APA

Cenozoic climate evolution in Asian region and its influence on isotopic composition of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botsyun, Svetlana; Donnadieu, Yannick; Sepulchre, Pierre; Risi, Camille; Fluteau, Frédéric

2015-04-01

The evolution of Asian climate during the Cenozoic as well as the onset of monsoon systems in this area is highly debated. Factors that control climate include the geographical position of continents, the land-sea distribution and altitude of orogens. In tern, several climatic parameters such as air temperature, precipitation amount and isotopic fractionation through mass-dependent processes impact precipitation δ18O lapse rate. Stable oxygen paleoaltimetry is considered to be a very efficient and widely applied technique, but the link between stable oxygen composition of precipitation and climate is not well established. To quantify the influence of paleogeography changes on climate and precipitation δ18O over Asia, the atmospheric general circulation model LMDZ-iso, with embedded stable oxygen isotopes, was used. For more realistic experiments, sea surface temperatures were calculated with the fully coupled model FOAM. Various scenarios of TP growth have been applied together with Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene and Miocene boundary conditions. The results of our numerical modelling show a significant influence of paleogeography changes on the Asian climate. The retreat of the Paratethys ocean, the changes in latitudinal position of India, and the height of the Tibetan Plateau most likely control precipitation patterns over Asia and cause spatial and temporal isotopic variations linked with the amount effect. Indian Ocean currents restructuring during the Eocene induces a substantial warming over Asian continent. The adiabatic and non-adiabatic temperature effects explain some of δ18O signal variations. We highlight the importance of these multiple factor on paleoelevations estimates derived using oxygen stable isotopes.

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

PubMed

Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2017-05-25

Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

Long-term environmental drivers of DOC fluxes: Linkages between management, hydrology and climate in a subtropical coastal estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regier, Peter; Briceño, Henry; Jaffé, Rudolf

2016-12-01

Urban and agricultural development of the South Florida peninsula has disrupted historic freshwater flow in the Everglades, a hydrologically connected ecosystem stretching from central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Current system-scale restoration efforts aim to restore natural hydrologic regimes to reestablish pre-drainage ecosystem functioning through increased water availability, quality and timing. Aquatic transport of carbon in this ecosystem, primarily as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling and food-web dynamics, and will be affected both by water management policies and climate change. To better understand DOC dynamics in South Florida estuaries and how hydrology, climate and water management may affect them, 14 years of monthly data collected in the Shark River estuary were used to examine DOC flux dynamics in a broader environmental context. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to long-term datasets for hydrology, water quality and climate to untangle the interconnected environmental drivers that control DOC export at monthly and annual scales. DOC fluxes were determined to be primarily controlled by hydrology but also by seasonality and long-term climate patterns and episodic weather events. A four-component model (salinity, rainfall, inflow, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) capable of predicting DOC fluxes (R2 = 0.84, p < 0.0001, n = 155) was established and applied to potential climate change scenarios for the Everglades to assess DOC flux response to climate and restoration variables. The majority of scenario runs indicated that DOC export from the Everglades is expected to decrease due to future changes in rainfall, water management and salinity.

Climate Change and Implications for Prevention. California's Efforts to Provide Leadership.

PubMed

Balmes, John R

2018-04-01

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and the temperature of the earth's surface have been rising in parallel for decades, with the former recently reaching 400 parts per million, consistent with a 1.5°C increase in global warming. Climate change models predict that a "business as usual" approach, that is, no effort to control CO 2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, will result in a more than 2°C increase in annual average surface temperature by approximately 2034. With atmospheric warming comes increased air pollution. The concept of a "climate gap" in air quality control captures the decreased effectiveness of regulatory policies to reduce pollution with a hotter climate. Sources of greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols ("black carbon") are the same sources of air pollutants that harm health. California has adopted robust climate change mitigation policies that are also designed to achieve public health cobenefits by improving air quality. These policies include advanced clean car standards, renewable energy, a sustainable communities strategy to limit suburban sprawl, a low carbon fuel standard, and energy efficiency. A market-based mechanism to put a price on CO 2 emissions is the cap-and-trade program that allows capped facilities to trade state-issued greenhouse gas emissions allowances. The "cap" limits total greenhouse gas emissions from all covered sources, and declines over time to progressively reduce emissions. An alternative approach is a carbon tax. California's leadership on air quality and climate change mitigation is increasingly important, given the efforts to slow or even reverse implementation of such policies at the U.S. national level.

Soil Organic Carbon and Its interaction with Minerals in Two Hillslopes with Different Climates and Erosion Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Yoo, K.; Wackett, A. A.; Gutknecht, J.; Amundson, R.; Heimsath, A. M.

2017-12-01

Climate and topography have been widely recognized as important factors regulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics but their interactive effects on SOC storage and its pools remain poorly constrained. Here we aimed to evaluate SOC storages and carbon-mineral interactions along two hillslope transects with moderately different climates (MAP: 549 mm vs. 816 mm) in Southeastern Australia. We sampled soil along the convex (eroding)-to-convergent (depositional) continuum at each hillslope transect and conducted size and density fractionation of these samples. In responses to the difference in climate factor, SOC inventories of eroding soils were twice as large at the wetter site compared with the drier site but showed little difference between two sites in depositional soils. These trends in SOC inventories were primarily controlled by SOC concentrations and secondarily by soil thicknesses. Similar patterns were observed for mineral associated organic carbon (MOC), and the abundances of MOC were controlled by the two independently operating processes affecting MOC concentration and fine-heavy fraction minerals. The contents and species of secondary clay and iron oxide minerals, abundances of particulate organic carbon, and bioturbation affected MOC concentrations. In contrast, the abundances of fine-heavy fraction minerals were impacted by erosion mechanisms that uniquely responded to regional- and micro- climate conditions. Consequently, topographic influences on SOC inventories and carbon-mineral interactions were more strongly pronounced in the drier climate where vegetation and erosion mechanisms were sensitive to microclimate. Our results highlight the significance of understanding topography and erosional processes in capturing climatic effects on soil carbon dynamics.

Tectonic and climatic control on evolution of rift lakes in the Central Kenya Rift, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergner, A. G. N.; Strecker, M. R.; Trauth, M. H.; Deino, A.; Gasse, F.; Blisniuk, P.; Dühnforth, M.

2009-12-01

The long-term histories of the neighboring Nakuru-Elmenteita and Naivasha lake basins in the Central Kenya Rift illustrate the relative importance of tectonic versus climatic effects on rift-lake evolution and the formation of disparate sedimentary environments. Although modern climate conditions in the Central Kenya Rift are very similar for these basins, hydrology and hydrochemistry of present-day lakes Nakuru, Elmenteita and Naivasha contrast dramatically due to tectonically controlled differences in basin geometries, catchment size, and fluvial processes. In this study, we use eighteen 14C and 40Ar/ 39Ar dated fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary sections to unravel the spatiotemporal evolution of the lake basins in response to tectonic and climatic influences. We reconstruct paleoclimatic and ecological trends recorded in these basins based on fossil diatom assemblages and geologic field mapping. Our study shows a tendency towards increasing alkalinity and shrinkage of water bodies in both lake basins during the last million years. Ongoing volcano-tectonic segmentation of the lake basins, as well as reorganization of upstream drainage networks have led to contrasting hydrologic regimes with adjacent alkaline and freshwater conditions. During extreme wet periods in the past, such as during the early Holocene climate optimum, lake levels were high and all basins evolved toward freshwater systems. During drier periods some of these lakes revert back to alkaline conditions, while others maintain freshwater characteristics. Our results have important implications for the use and interpretation of lake sediment as climate archives in tectonically active regions and emphasize the need to deconvolve lacustrine records with respect to tectonics versus climatic forcing mechanisms.

Functional approach to exploring climatic and landscape controls of runoff generation: 1. Behavioral constraints on runoff volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hong-Yi; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tian, Fuqiang; Harman, Ciaran

2014-12-01

Inspired by the Dunne diagram, the climatic and landscape controls on the partitioning of annual runoff into its various components (Hortonian and Dunne overland flow and subsurface stormflow) are assessed quantitatively, from a purely theoretical perspective. A simple distributed hydrologic model has been built sufficient to simulate the effects of different combinations of climate, soil, and topography on the runoff generation processes. The model is driven by a sequence of simple hypothetical precipitation events, for a large combination of climate and landscape properties, and hydrologic responses at the catchment scale are obtained through aggregation of grid-scale responses. It is found, first, that the water balance responses, including relative contributions of different runoff generation mechanisms, could be related to a small set of dimensionless similarity parameters. These capture the competition between the wetting, drying, storage, and drainage functions underlying the catchment responses, and in this way, provide a quantitative approximation of the conceptual Dunne diagram. Second, only a subset of all hypothetical catchment/climate combinations is found to be "behavioral," in terms of falling sufficiently close to the Budyko curve, describing mean annual runoff as a function of climate aridity. Furthermore, these behavioral combinations are mostly consistent with the qualitative picture presented in the Dunne diagram, indicating clearly the commonality between the Budyko curve and the Dunne diagram. These analyses also suggest clear interrelationships amongst the "behavioral" climate, soil, and topography parameter combinations, implying these catchment properties may be constrained to be codependent in order to satisfy the Budyko curve.

Developing a climate adaptation strategy for vulnerable seabirds based on prioritisation of intervention options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alderman, Rachael; Hobday, Alistair J.

2017-06-01

Conservation of marine species typically focuses on monitoring and mitigating demonstrated stressors where possible. Evidence is accumulating that some species will be negatively affected in the future by climate change and that reduction of existing stressors may not be sufficient to offset these impacts. Recent work suggests the shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta) will be adversely affected by projected changes in environmental conditions under plausible climate change scenarios. Furthermore, modelling shows that elimination of the principal present-day threat to albatrosses, fisheries bycatch, an achievable and critical priority, may not be sufficient to reverse projected population declines due to climate impacts, which cannot be directly eliminated. Here, a case study is presented in which a range of intervention options, in preparation for predicted climate change impacts, are identified and evaluated. A suite of 24 plausible climate adaptation options is first assessed using a semi-quantitative cost-benefit-risk tool, leading to a relative ranking of actions. Of these options, increasing chick survival via reduction of disease prevalence through control of vectors, was selected for field trials. Avian insecticide was applied to chicks' mid-way through their development and the effect on subsequent survival was evaluated. Survival of treated chicks after six weeks was significantly higher (92.7%) than those in control areas (82.1%). This approach shows that options to enhance albatross populations exist and we argue that testing interventions prior to serious impacts can formalise institutional processes and allow refinement of actions that offer some chance of mitigating the impacts of climate change on iconic marine species.

Interactive training improves workplace climate, knowledge, and support towards domestic violence.

PubMed

Glass, Nancy; Hanson, Ginger C; Laharnar, Naima; Anger, W Kent; Perrin, Nancy

2016-07-01

As Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) affects the workplace, a supportive workplace climate is important. The study evaluated the effectiveness of an "IPV and the Workplace" training on workplace climate towards IPV. IPV training was provided to 14 intervention counties and 13 control counties (receiving training 6 months delayed). Measures included workplace climate surveys, IPV knowledge test, and workplace observations. (i) Training significantly improved supervisor knowledge on IPV and received positive evaluations, (ii) training improved workplace climate towards IPV significantly which was maintained over time, and (iii) after the training, supervisors provided more IPV information to employees and more IPV postings were available in the workplace. The study provides evidence to support on-site interactive, computer based training as a means for improved workplace safety. IPV and the Workplace training effectively increased knowledge and positively changed workplace climate. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:538-548, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Paleoclimatology Supports Physics: Our Energy Choices Will Have Large and Long-Lasting Consequences for Climate and Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harland, B.; Bradley, R. S.; Schlosser, P.; Rignot, E. J.; Dickens, G. R.; Boslough, M.; Alley, R. B.

2016-12-01

Interpretations of the paleoclimatic record show with increasing clarity and confidence that CO2 has been the most important of the many controls on Earth's climate history, providing a slow stabilizer but fast destabilizer through both forcing and feedbacks. From the Faint Young Sun through Snowball Earth, the warmth of the Cretaceous, the PETM, ice-age cycling, and many events between, our best understanding shows that CO2 has been an essential player. Many climate reconstructions are based on the biological record; we know what CO2 did to the climate in part from the ways that living things responded. If our climate models have a shortcoming, the full climate response to CO2 is larger than simulated for shorter times. Surprisingly large response may prove to be especially important for ice sheets and sea level.

The FORBIO Climate data set for climate analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

2015-06-01

In the framework of the interdisciplinary FORBIO Climate research project, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium is in charge of providing high resolution gridded past climate data (i.e. temperature and precipitation). This climate data set will be linked to the measurements on seedlings, saplings and mature trees to assess the effects of climate variation on tree performance. This paper explains how the gridded daily temperature (minimum and maximum) data set was generated from a consistent station network between 1980 and 2013. After station selection, data quality control procedures were developed and applied to the station records to ensure that only valid measurements will be involved in the gridding process. Thereafter, the set of unevenly distributed validated temperature data was interpolated on a 4 km × 4 km regular grid over Belgium. The performance of different interpolation methods has been assessed. The method of kriging with external drift using correlation between temperature and altitude gave the most relevant results.

A Synthesis of Equilibrium and Historical Models of Landform Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Renwick, William H.

1985-01-01

The synthesis of two approaches that can be used in teaching geomorphology is described. The equilibrium approach explains landforms and landform change in terms of equilibrium between landforms and controlling processes. The historical approach draws on climatic geomorphology to describe the effects of Quaternary climatic and tectonic events on…

Biotic regulation of CO2 uptake-climate responses: Links to vegetation properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Primary productivity is regulated by climatic factors, but also depends on which plant species are present and, more specifically, on how plant traits that control photosynthesis and its response to the environment are distributed in the community. We used remotely-sense...

Design and Applications of a Climatic Chamber for in-situ Neutron Imaging Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannes, David; Schmid, Florian; Wehmann, Timon; Lehmann, Eberhard

Due to the high sensitivity for hydrogen, the detection and quantification of moisture and moisture transport processes are some of the key topics in neutron imaging. Especially when dealing with hygroscopic material, such as wood and other porous media, it is crucial for quantitative analyses to know and control the ambient conditions of the sample precisely. In this work, a neutron transparent climatic chamber is presented, which was designed and built for the imaging facilities at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Villigen (CH). The air-conditioned measuring system consists of the actual sample chamber and a moisture generator providing air with adjustable temperature and relative humidity (%RH) (up to a dew point temperature of 70 °C). The two components are connected with a flexible tube, which features insulation, a heating system and temperature sensors to prevent condensation within the tube. The sample chamber itself is equipped with neutron transparent windows, insulating double walls with three feed-through openings for the rotation stage, sensors for humidity and temperature. Thermoelectric modules allow to control the chamber temperature in the range of -20 °C to 100 °C. The chamber allows to control the climatic conditions either in a static mode (stable temperature and %RH) or in dynamic mode (humidity or temperature cycles). The envisaged areas of application are neutron radiography and tomography investigations of dynamic processes in building materials (e.g. wood, concrete), food science and any other application necessitating the control of the climatic conditions.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

PubMed Central

Nooten, Sabine S.; Andrew, Nigel R.; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure. PMID:24465827

Ecological controls on water-cycle response to climate variability in deserts.

PubMed

Scanlon, B R; Levitt, D G; Reedy, R C; Keese, K E; Sully, M J

2005-04-26

The impact of climate variability on the water cycle in desert ecosystems is controlled by biospheric feedback at interannual to millennial timescales. This paper describes a unique field dataset from weighing lysimeters beneath nonvegetated and vegetated systems that unequivocally demonstrates the role of vegetation dynamics in controlling water cycle response to interannual climate variability related to El Nino southern oscillation in the Mojave Desert. Extreme El Nino winter precipitation (2.3-2.5 times normal) typical of the U.S. Southwest would be expected to increase groundwater recharge, which is critical for water resources in semiarid and arid regions. However, lysimeter data indicate that rapid increases in vegetation productivity in response to elevated winter precipitation reduced soil water storage to half of that in a nonvegetated lysimeter, thereby precluding deep drainage below the root zone that would otherwise result in groundwater recharge. Vegetation dynamics have been controlling the water cycle in interdrainage desert areas throughout the U.S. Southwest, maintaining dry soil conditions and upward soil water flow since the last glacial period (10,000-15,000 yr ago), as shown by soil water chloride accumulations. Although measurements are specific to the U.S. Southwest, correlations between satellite-based vegetation productivity and elevated precipitation related to El Nino southern oscillation indicate this model may be applicable to desert basins globally. Understanding the two-way coupling between vegetation dynamics and the water cycle is critical for predicting how climate variability influences hydrology and water resources in water-limited landscapes.

Climate, Water, and Human Health: Large Scale Hydroclimatic Controls in Forecasting Cholera Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2009-12-01

Despite ravaging the continents through seven global pandemics in past centuries, the seasonal and interannual variability of cholera outbreaks remain a mystery. Previous studies have focused on the role of various environmental and climatic factors, but provided little or no predictive capability. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of large scale hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - and attempt to explain the seasonality and the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia. We investigate the seasonal and interannual nature of cholera epidemiology in three geographically distinct locations within the region to identify the larger scale hydroclimatic controls that can set the ecological and environmental ‘stage’ for outbreaks and have significant memory on a seasonal scale. Here we show that two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large scale climatic controls prevail in the region. An implication of our findings is that extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts, record floods, and major cyclones may cause major disruption in the ecosystem and trigger large epidemics. We postulate that a quantitative understanding of the large-scale hydroclimatic controls and dominant processes with significant system memory will form the basis for forecasting such epidemic outbreaks. A multivariate regression method using these predictor variables to develop probabilistic forecasts of cholera outbreaks will be explored. Forecasts from such a system with a seasonal lead-time are likely to have measurable impact on early cholera detection and prevention efforts in endemic regions.

Air Pollution Prevention and Control Policy in China.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Wang, Qiong; Wang, Suhan; Ren, Meng; Ma, Rui; He, Yiling

2017-01-01

With rapid urbanization and development of transport infrastructure, air pollution caused by multiple-pollutant emissions and vehicle exhaust has been aggravated year by year in China. In order to improve air quality, the Chinese authorities have taken a series of actions to control air pollution emission load within a permissible range. However, although China has made positive progress on tackling air pollution, these actions have not kept up with its economy growth and fossil-fuel use. The traditional single-pollutant approach is far from enough in China now, and in the near future, air pollution control strategies should move in the direction of the multiple-pollutant approach. In addition, undesirable air quality is usually linked with the combination of high emissions and adverse weather conditions. However, few studies have been done on the influence of climate change on atmospheric chemistry in the global perspective. Available evidence suggested that climate change is likely to exacerbate certain kinds of air pollutants including ozone and smoke from wildfires. This has become a major public health problem because the interactions of global climate change, urban heat islands, and air pollution have adverse effects on human health. In this chapter, we first review the past and current circumstances of China's responses to air pollution. Then we discuss the control challenges and future options for a better air quality in China. Finally, we begin to unravel links between air pollution and climate change, providing new opportunities for integrated research and actions in China.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

PubMed

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Complexity Science and the Dynamics of Climate and Communication: Reducing Nursing Home Turnover

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ruth A.; Corazzini, Kirsten N.; McDaniel, Reuben R.

2008-01-01

Purpose Turnover in nursing homes is a widespread problem adversely affecting care quality. Using complexity theory, we tested the effect of administrative climate, communication patterns, and the interaction between the two on turnover, controlling for facility context. Design and Methods Perceptions of administrative climate and communication were collected from 3,449 employees in 164 randomly sampled nursing homes, and they were linked to secondary data on facility characteristics, resource allocation, and turnover. We used hierarchical regression to test the hypotheses. Results Climate and communication both affected turnover, but lower turnover was dependent on the interaction between climate and communication. In nursing homes with reward-based administrative climates, higher levels of communication openness and accuracy explained lower turnover of licensed vocational nurses and certified nurse assistants, relative to nursing homes with an ambiguous climate. Adequate staffing and longer tenure of the nursing director were also important predictors of turnover. Implications Although context is important, managers can also influence turnover by addressing climate and communication patterns and by encouraging stable nursing leadership. PMID:15197292

Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia

PubMed Central

Herzschuh, Ulrike; Birks, H. John B.; Laepple, Thomas; Andreev, Andrei; Melles, Martin; Brigham-Grette, Julie

2016-01-01

Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial–interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we show that interglacial vegetation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition mainly reflects conditions of the preceding glacial instead of contemporary interglacial climate. Vegetation–climate disequilibrium may persist for several millennia, related to the combined effects of permafrost persistence, distant glacial refugia and fire. In contrast, no effects from the preceding interglacial on glacial vegetation are detected. We propose that disequilibrium was stronger during the Plio-Pleistocene transition than during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period when, in addition to climate, herbivory was important. By analogy to the past, we suggest today's widespread larch ecosystem on permafrost is not in climate equilibrium. Vegetation-based reconstructions of interglacial climates used to assess atmospheric CO2–temperature relationships may thus yield misleading simulations of past global climate sensitivity. PMID:27338025

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

PubMed Central

Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B.; Refsgaard, Jens C.

2016-01-01

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. PMID:26960564

Utilizing Satellite Precipitation Products to Understand the Link Between Climate Variability and Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.

2015-12-01

Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence rates and to determine which regions of the country are most affected.

Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaoying; Warren, Rachel; He, Yi; Ye, Jinyin; Li, Qiaoling; Wang, Guoqing

2018-02-15

It is increasingly recognized that climate change could affect the quality of water through complex natural and anthropogenic mechanisms. Previous studies on climate change and water quality have mostly focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from agricultural runoff. A sub-daily SWAT model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from all known anthropogenic sources including industries, municipal sewage treatment plants, concentrated and scattered feedlot operations, rural households, and crop production in the Upper Huai River Basin. This is a highly polluted basin with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations frequently exceeding Class V of the Chinese Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-2002). Climate change projections produced by 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the mid (2040-2060) and late (2070-2090) century were used to drive the SWAT model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both the TN loads and the effectiveness of three water pollution control measures (reducing fertilizer use, constructing vegetative filter strips, and improving septic tank performance) in the basin. SWAT simulation results have indicated that climate change is likely to cause an increase in both monthly average and extreme TN loads in February, May, and November. The projected impact of climate change on TN loads in August is more varied between GCMs. In addition, climate change is projected to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of septic tanks in reducing TN loads, while its impacts on the other two measures are more uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, reducing fertilizer use remains the most effective measure for reducing TN loads under different climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, improving septic tank performance is relatively more effective in reducing annual TN loads, while constructing vegetative filter strips is more effective in reducing annual maximum monthly TN loads. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General Procedure for Protective Cooling and Equipment Evaluations Relative to Heat and Cold Stress

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

climatic chamber housing the manikin. The most widely accepted test procedures for the operation of a TM are published by the American Society for...describes measurement of the clo value of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35ºC and a climatic chamber controlled...Clothing Using a Sweating Manikin” (1) measures the im of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35ºC and a climatic

Geoengineering the climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacCracken, M.C.

1991-06-18

Although much can be done to limit greenhouse gas emissions by conservation, improvements in efficiency, and use of alternative technologies, the use of fossil fuels at rates even sharply reduced from US per capita values will lead to rapidly increasing global concentrations of greenhouse gases. The available alternatives then become adapting to the changes, switching to alternative energy sources (e.g., solar, nuclear), or actively taking control of atmospheric composition and/or the climate. This note reviews options for geoengineering the climate. 18 refs., 1 tab.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

A multi-model ensemble view of winter heat flux dynamics and the dipole mode in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Cabos, William

2017-02-01

Changes in surface heat fluxes affect several climate processes controlling the Mediterranean climate. These include the winter formation of deep waters, which is the primary driver of the Mediterranean Sea overturning circulation. Previous studies that characterize the spatial and temporal variability of surface heat flux anomalies over the basin reveal the existence of two statistically dominant patterns of variability: a monopole of uniform sign and an east-west dipole of opposite signs. In this work, we use the 12 regional climate model ensemble from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes that control the variability of heat fluxes over the Mediterranean Sea from interannual to decadal timescales (here defined as timescales > 6 year). Our findings suggest that while the monopole structure captures variability in the winter-to-winter domain-average net heat flux, the dipole pattern tracks changes in the Mediterranean climate that are connected to the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EA/WR) atmospheric teleconnection pattern. Furthermore, while the monopole exhibits significant differences in the spatial structure across the multi-model ensemble, the dipole pattern is very robust and more clearly identifiable in the anomaly maps of individual years. A heat budget analysis of the dipole pattern reveals that changes in winds associated with the EA/WR pattern exert dominant control through both a direct effect on the latent heat flux (i.e., wind speed) and an indirect effect through specific humidity (e.g., wind advection). A simple reconstruction of the heat flux variability over the deep-water formation regions of the Gulf of Lion and the Aegean Sea reveals that the combination of the monopole and dipole time series explains over 90 % of the heat flux variance in these regions. Given the important role that surface heat flux anomalies play in deep-water formation and the regional climate, improving our knowledge on the dynamics controlling the leading modes of heat flux variability may enhance our predictability of the climate of the Mediterranean area.

Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

PubMed

Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

2011-07-14

Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease in the actual risk of disease. This implies that irrigation can lead to more endemic conditions for malaria, creating the potential for unexpectedly large epidemics in response to excess rainfall if these climatic events coincide with a relaxation of control over time. The implications of our findings for control policies of epidemic malaria in arid regions are discussed.

Evaluating the Implications of Climate Phenomenon Indices in Supporting Reservoir Operation Using the Artificial Neural Network and Decision-Tree Methods: A Case Study on Trinity Lake in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Akbari Asanjan, A.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2016-12-01

Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for all kinds of purposes, including residential and industrial water supply, flood control, hydropower, and irrigation, etc. Efficient reservoir operation requires that policy makers and operators understand how reservoir inflows, available storage, and discharges are changing under different climatic conditions. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI & DM) techniques in assisting reservoir management and seasonal forecasts have been increasing. Therefore, in this study, two distinct AI & DM methods, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF), are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities of predicting monthly reservoir inflow, managing storage, and scheduling reservoir releases. A case study on Trinity Lake in northern California is conducted using long-term (over 50 years) reservoir operation records and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e. PDO and ENSO, etc., as predictors. Results show that (1) both ANN and RF are capable of providing reasonable monthly reservoir storage, inflow, and outflow prediction with satisfactory statistics, and (2) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow and outflow. It is also found that reservoir storage has a consistent high autocorrelation effect, while inflow and outflow are more likely to be influenced by climate conditions. Using a Gini diversity index, RF method identifies that the reservoir discharges are associated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and reservoir inflows are influenced by multiple climate phenomenon indices during different seasons. Furthermore, results also show that, during the winter season, reservoir discharges are controlled by the storage level for flood-control purposes, while, during the summer season, the flood-control operation is not as significant as that in the winter. With regard to the suitability of the AI & DM methods in support of reservoir operation, the Decision Tree method is suggested for future reservoir studies because of its transparency and non-parametric features over the "black-box" style ANN regression model.

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Organizational Culture and Climate and Mental Health Provider Attitudes Toward Evidence-Based Practice

PubMed Central

Aarons, Gregory A.; Sawitzky, Angelina C.

2006-01-01

Mental health provider attitudes toward adopting evidence-based practice (EBP) are associated with organizational context and provider individual differences. Organizational culture and climate are contextual factors that can affect staff acceptance of innovation. This study examined the association of organizational culture and climate with attitudes toward adopting EBP. Participants were 301 public sector mental health service providers from 49 programs providing mental health services for youths and families. Correlation analyses and multilevel hierarchical regressions, controlling for effects of provider characteristics, showed that constructive culture was associated with more positive attitudes toward adoption of EBP and poor organizational climates with perceived divergence of usual practice and EBP. Behavioral health organizations may benefit from consideration of how culture and climate affect staff attitudes toward change in practice. PMID:17183411

Organizational Culture and Climate and Mental Health Provider Attitudes Toward Evidence-Based Practice.

PubMed

Aarons, Gregory A; Sawitzky, Angelina C

2006-02-01

Mental health provider attitudes toward adopting evidence-based practice (EBP) are associated with organizational context and provider individual differences. Organizational culture and climate are contextual factors that can affect staff acceptance of innovation. This study examined the association of organizational culture and climate with attitudes toward adopting EBP. Participants were 301 public sector mental health service providers from 49 programs providing mental health services for youths and families. Correlation analyses and multilevel hierarchical regressions, controlling for effects of provider characteristics, showed that constructive culture was associated with more positive attitudes toward adoption of EBP and poor organizational climates with perceived divergence of usual practice and EBP. Behavioral health organizations may benefit from consideration of how culture and climate affect staff attitudes toward change in practice.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

Interannual Variations and Trends in Global Land Surface Phenology Derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index During 1982-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-01-01

Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than I% in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10%.

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-05-01

Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than 1 % in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10 %.

Regional Climate Models Downscaling in the Alpine Area with Multimodel SuperEnsemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L.; Ronchi, C.

2012-04-01

The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid XXI century. The climate simulation, however, even when obtained with Regional Climate Models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors where compared with observations in the control period, due to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and limitations in their physical parametrization. In this work we use a selection of RCMs runs from the ENSEMBLES project, carefully chosen in order to maximise the variety of leading Global Climate Models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observation for the Greater Alpine Area are extracted from the European dataset E-OBS produced by the project ENSEMBLES with an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piemonte daily temperature and precipitation observations (1957-present) were carefully gridded on a 14-km grid over Piemonte Region with an Optimal Interpolation technique. We applied the Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We propose also the first application to RCMs of a brand new probabilistic Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing technique to estimate precipitation fields, already applied successfully to weather forecast models, with careful description of precipitation Probability Density Functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique reduces the strong precipitation overestimation by RCMs over the alpine chain and reproduces the monthly behaviour of observed precipitation in the control period far better than the direct model outputs.

Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

2013-02-01

Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

2017-12-01

Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

The Role of Sea Ice in 2 x CO2 Climate Model Sensitivity. Part 2; Hemispheric Dependencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Healy, R.; Parkinson, C.; Martinson, D.

1997-01-01

How sensitive are doubled CO2 simulations to GCM control-run sea ice thickness and extent? This issue is examined in a series of 10 control-run simulations with different sea ice and corresponding doubled CO2 simulations. Results show that with increased control-run sea ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere, temperature sensitivity with climate change is enhanced, while there is little effect on temperature sensitivity of (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice thickness. In the Northern Hemisphere the situation is reversed: sea ice thickness is the key parameter, while (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice coverage are of less importance. In both cases, the quantity of sea ice that can be removed in the warmer climate is the determining factor. Overall, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage change had a larger impact on global temperature, because Northern Hemisphere sea ice was sufficiently thick to limit its response to doubled CO2, and sea ice changes generally occurred at higher latitudes, reducing the sea ice-albedo feedback. In both these experiments and earlier ones in which sea ice was not allowed to change, the model displayed a sensitivity of -0.02 C global warming per percent change in Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage.

Relevance of improved epidemiological knowledge to sustainable control of Haemonchus contortus in Nigeria.

PubMed

Bolajoko, M B; Morgan, E R

2012-12-01

Nigeria experiences losses in small ruminant production as a result of a high prevalence of infection with Haemonchus contortus, but there have been very few investigative studies into the epidemiology of H. contortus in Nigeria, particularly in the south and western parts of the country. For successful planning and execution of control of hemonchosis in Nigeria, there is a need for insight into the epidemiology of free-living stages under the prevailing local conditions and models for climatic and environmental factors that control the risk of hemonchosis and distribution of H. contortus. In this review, we assess previous studies on the epidemiology of H. contortus in Nigeria, evaluate the present climatic and epidemiological situation, and highlight areas that require further investigative studies. The goal is to identify factors that underpin better control strategies and holistic integrated farm-management practice. Previous studies on H. contortus provided important information for formulation of control strategies and development toward integrated parasite management. However, this review has revealed the need for holistic evaluation of the current epidemiology and prevalence of H. contortus in Nigeria, particularly in relation to climate change. Accurate information is needed to build useful predictive models of the population dynamics of all free-living stages, particularly the L3.

Control allocation-based adaptive control for greenhouse climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Yuanping; Xu, Lihong; Goodman, Erik D.

2018-04-01

This paper presents an adaptive approach to greenhouse climate control, as part of an integrated control and management system for greenhouse production. In this approach, an adaptive control algorithm is first derived to guarantee the asymptotic convergence of the closed system with uncertainty, then using that control algorithm, a controller is designed to satisfy the demands for heat and mass fluxes to maintain inside temperature, humidity and CO2 concentration at their desired values. Instead of applying the original adaptive control inputs directly, second, a control allocation technique is applied to distribute the demands of the heat and mass fluxes to the actuators by minimising tracking errors and energy consumption. To find an energy-saving solution, both single-objective optimisation (SOO) and multiobjective optimisation (MOO) in the control allocation structure are considered. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it does not require any a priori knowledge of the uncertainty bounds, and the simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme. It also indicates that MOO saves more energy in the control process.

Regulation of stream water dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) during snowmelt in forest streams; the role of discharge, winter climate and memory effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ågren, A.; Haei, M.; Öquist, M.; Buffam, I.; Ottosson-Löfvenius, M.; Kohler, S.; Bishop, K.; Blomkvist, P.; Laudon, H.

2011-12-01

Using 15 year stream records from two forested northern boreal catchments, coupled with soil frost experiments in the riparian zone, we demonstrate the complex inter-annual control on [DOC] and export during snowmelt. Stream [DOC] varied by a factor of 2 during those 15 years with no consistent trend. Based on our long-term analysis, we demonstrate, for the first time, that stream water [DOC] is strongly linked to the climatic conditions during the preceding winter, but that there is also a long-term memory effect in the catchment soils, related to the extent of the previous export from the catchment. Hydrology had a first order control on the inter-annual variation in concentrations, and the length of the winter was more important than the memory effect. By removing the effect of discharge on [DOC], using a conceptual hydrological model, we could detect processes that would otherwise have been overshadowed. A short and intense snowmelt gave higher [DOC] in the stream. During a prolonged snowmelt, one soil layer at the time might have been "flushed" from easily exported DOC, resulting in slightly lower stream [DOC] during such years. We found that longer and colder winters resulted in higher [DOC] during the subsequent snowmelt. A soil frost manipulation experiment in the riparian soils of the study catchment showed that the DOC concentrations in the soil water increased with the duration of the soil frost. A high antecedent DOC export during the preceding summer and autumn resulted in lower concentrations during the following spring, indicating a long-term "memory effect" of the catchment soils. In a nearby stream draining mire, we found a different response to hydrology but similar response to climate and memory effect. The inter-annual variation in snowmelt DOC exports was mostly controlled by the amount of runoff, but the variability in [DOC] also exerted a significant control on the exports, accounting for 15% of the variance in exports. We conclude that winter climatic conditions can play a substantial role in controlling stream [DOC] in ways not previously understood. These findings are especially important for northern latitude regions expected to be most affected by climate change. It's difficult to directly translate this to a future climate change prediction. If warmer winters with less insulating snow cover increase the soil frost, the results from the soil frost manipulation experiment then suggest increasing [DOC] in a future climate. At the same time the statistical analysis of the stream records suggest that a shorter and warmer winter would decrease the [DOC]. Our results do, however, highlight the role of winter climate for regulating DOC in areas with seasonally frozen soils which should be considered when resolving the sensitivity of stream [DOC] to global environmental change.

Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

PubMed

Johnstone, Jill F; Henkelman, Jonathan; Allen, Kirsten; Helgason, Warren; Bedard-Haughn, Angela

2013-01-01

Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Beltran, Angelica Mendoza; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-11-01

The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented. In this study, we explore how different assumptions on future air pollution policy and climate policy lead to different concentrations of air pollutants for a set of RCP-like scenarios developed using the IMAGE model. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W m-2 and 6.0 W m-2. Simulations using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 for the present-day climate show that both climate mitigation and air pollution control policies have large-scale effects on pollutant concentrations, often of similar magnitude. If no further air pollution policies would be implemented, pollution levels could be considerably higher than in the RCPs, especially in Asia. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate by 2020, and in the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other on a global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W m-2 in the 6.0 W m-2 scenario and -0.16 W m-2 in the 2.6 W m-2 scenario.

Palaeohydrological evolution of the late Cenozoic saline lake in the Qaidam Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau: Tectonic vs. climatic control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Pei; Liu, Chiyang; Huang, Lei; Yu, Mengli; Wang, Peng; Zhang, Guoqing

2018-06-01

As the largest Cenozoic terrestrial intermountain basin on the Tibetan Plateau, the Qaidam Basin is an ideal setting to understand the coupled controls of tectonics and climate on hydrological evolution. In this study, we used 47,846 data of carbonate and chloride contents from 146 boreholes to reconstruct the Neogene-Quaternary basin-wide hydrological evolution of the Qaidam Basin. Our results show that during the early Miocene (22-15 Ma), the palaeolake in the Qaidam Basin was mainly situated in the southwestern part of the basin, and its water was mostly brackish. From then on, this palaeolake progressively migrated southeastward, and its salinity increased from late Miocene saline water to Quaternary brines. This generally increasing trend of the water palaeosalinity during the late Cenozoic corresponded with regional and global climate changes at that time, suggesting the dominance of climatic control. However, the paces of the salinity increase from sediments in front of the three basin-bounding ranges were not the same, indicating that extra tectonic controls occurred. Sediments in front of the Eastern Kunlun Shan to the southwest and the Altyn Shan to the northwest showed an abrupt, dramatic increase in salinity at 15 Ma and 8 Ma, respectively; sediments in front of the Qilian Shan to the northeast showed steady increase without prominent, abrupt changes, indicating the occurrence of asynchronous tectonic controls from the basin-bounding ranges. The late Miocene depocentre migration was synchronous with the hydrological changes in front of the Altyn Shan, while the more significant migration during the Quaternary was consistent with the pulsing, intense extrabasinal and intrabasinal tectonic movements along the Tibetan Plateau.

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale.

PubMed

Slessarev, E W; Lin, Y; Bingham, N L; Johnson, J E; Dai, Y; Schimel, J P; Chadwick, O A

2016-11-21

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility-rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

Factors Controlling Carbon Metabolism and Humification in Different Soil Agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Doni, S.; Macci, C.; Peruzzi, E.; Ceccanti, B.; Masciandaro, G.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to describe the processes that control humic carbon sequestration in soil. Three experimental sites differing in terms of management system and climate were selected: (i) Abanilla-Spain, soil treated with municipal solid wastes in Mediterranean semiarid climate; (ii) Puch-Germany, soil under intensive tillage and conventional agriculture in continental climate; and (iii) Alberese-Italy, soil under organic and conventional agriculture in Mediterranean subarid climate. The chemical-structural and biochemical soil properties at the initial sampling time and one year later were evaluated. The soils under organic (Alberese, soil cultivated with Triticum durum Desf.) and nonintensive management practices (Puch, soil cultivated with Triticum aestivum L. and Avena sativa L.) showed higher enzymatically active humic carbon, total organic carbon, humification index (B/E3s), and metabolic potential (dehydrogenase activity/water soluble carbon) if compared with conventional agriculture and plough-based tillage, respectively. In Abanilla, the application of municipal solid wastes stimulated the specific β-glucosidase activity (extracellular β-glucosidase activity/extractable humic carbon) and promoted the increase of humic substances with respect to untreated soil. The evolution of the chemical and biochemical status of the soils along a climatic gradient suggested that the adoption of certain management practices could be very promising in increasing SOC sequestration potential. PMID:25614887

NASA's Global Change Master Directory: Discover and Access Earth Science Data Sets, Related Data Services, and Climate Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleman, A.; Olsen, L. M.; Ritz, S.; Stevens, T.; Morahan, M.; Grebas, S. K.

2011-12-01

NASA's Global Change Master Directory provides the scientific community with the ability to discover, access, and use Earth science data, data-related services, and climate diagnostics worldwide.The GCMD offers descriptions of Earth science data sets using the Directory Interchange Format (DIF) metadata standard; Earth science related data services are described using the Service Entry Resource Format (SERF); and climate visualizations are described using the Climate Diagnostic (CD) standard. The DIF, SERF and CD standards each capture data attributes used to determine whether a data set, service, or climate visualization is relevant to a user's needs.Metadata fields include: title, summary, science keywords, service keywords, data center, data set citation, personnel, instrument, platform, quality, related URL, temporal and spatial coverage, data resolution and distribution information.In addition, nine valuable sets of controlled vocabularies have been developed to assist users in normalizing the search for data descriptions. An update to the GCMD's search functionality is planned to further capitalize on the controlled vocabularies during database queries.By implementing a dynamic keyword "tree", users will have the ability to search for data sets by combining keywords in new ways.This will allow users to conduct more relevant and efficient database searches to support the free exchange and re-use of Earth science data.

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slessarev, E. W.; Lin, Y.; Bingham, N. L.; Johnson, J. E.; Dai, Y.; Schimel, J. P.; Chadwick, O. A.

2016-12-01

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility—rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

Quantifying the effectiveness of conservation measures to control the spread of anthropogenic hybridization in stream salmonids: a climate adaptation case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Boyer, Matthew; Jones, Leslie A.; Steed, Amber; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2014-01-01

Quantifying the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate the effects of changing climatic conditions (i.e., climate adaptation) can be difficult, yet critical for conservation. We used population genetic data from 1984 to 2011 to assess the degree to which ambient climatic conditions and targeted suppression of sources of nonnative Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have influenced the spread of introgressive hybridization in native populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii lewisi. We found rapid expansion in the spatial distribution and proportion of nonnative genetic admixture in hybridized populations from 1984 to 2004, but minimal change since 2004. The spread of hybridization was negatively correlated with the number of streamflow events in May that exceeded the 75th percentile of historic flows (r = −0.98) and positively correlated with August stream temperatures (r = 0.89). Concomitantly, suppression data showed a 60% decline in catch per unit effort for fish with a high proportion of Rainbow Trout admixture, rendering some uncertainty as to the relative strength of factors controlling the spread of hybridization. Our results illustrate the importance of initiating management actions to mitigate the potential effects of climate change, even where data describing the effectiveness of such actions are initially limited but the risks are severe.

Network Connectedness, Sense of Community, and Risk Perception of Climate Change Professionals in the Pacific Islands Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corlew, L. K.; Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

2013-12-01

The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Program conducted social network analysis research of climate change professionals (broadly defined) who are from or work in Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region. This study is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) to address an identified need for a resource that quantifies the region's collaborative network of climate change professionals, and that supports the further development of cross-regional and inter-sectoral collaborations for future research and adaptation activities. A survey was distributed to nearly 1,200 people who are from and/or work in climate change related fields in the region. The Part One Survey questions (not confidential) created a preferential attachment network by listing major players in Hawaii and the USAPI, with additional open fields to identify important contacts in the greater professional network. Participants (n=340) identified 975 network contacts and frequency of communications (weekly, monthly, seasonally, yearly, at least once ever). Part Two Survey questions (confidential, n=302) explored climate change risk perceptions, Psychological Sense of Community (PSOC), sense of control over climate change impacts, sense of responsibility to act, policy beliefs and preferences regarding climate change actions, concern and optimism scales about specific impacts, and demographic information. Graphical representations of the professional network are being developed for release in September 2013 as a free online tool to promote and assist collaboration building among climate professionals in the region. The graphs are partitioned according to network 'hubs' (high centrality), participant location, and profession to clearly identify network strengths and opportunities for future collaborations across spatial and professional boundaries. For additional analyses, scores are assigned for participant degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and Eigenvector centrality from the Part One Survey, as well as PSOC, control, responsibility, risk perceptions, concern, optimism, and policy preferences from the Part Two Survey. Statistical interaction analyses explore factors motivating connectedness within the network, as well as climate change research and adaptation needs and priorities of participants.

Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feher, Laura C.; Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Grace, James B.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Stagg, Camille L.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Krauss, Ken W.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Day, Richard H.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of tidal saline wetland ecosystems. However, there is a need to better quantify the effects of climatic drivers on ecosystem properties, particularly near climate-sensitive ecological transition zones. Here, we used climate- and literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands to test hypotheses regarding the influence of climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and precipitation regimes) on the following six ecosystem properties: canopy height, biomass, productivity, decomposition, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation. Our analyses quantify and elucidate linear and nonlinear effects of climatic drivers. We quantified positive linear relationships between temperature and above-ground productivity and strong positive nonlinear (sigmoidal) relationships between (1) temperature and above-ground biomass and canopy height and (2) precipitation and canopy height. Near temperature-controlled mangrove range limits, small changes in temperature are expected to trigger comparatively large changes in biomass and canopy height, as mangrove forests grow, expand, and, in some cases, replace salt marshes. However, within these same transition zones, temperature-induced changes in productivity are expected to be comparatively small. Interestingly, despite the significant above-ground height, biomass, and productivity relationships across the tropical–temperate mangrove–marsh transition zone, the relationships between temperature and soil carbon density or soil carbon accumulation were not significant. Our literature review identifies several ecosystem properties and many regions of the world for which there are insufficient data to fully evaluate the influence of climatic drivers, and the identified data gaps can be used by scientists to guide future research. Our analyses indicate that near precipitation-controlled transition zones, small changes in precipitation are expected to trigger comparatively large changes in canopy height. However, there are scant data to evaluate the influence of precipitation on other ecosystem properties. There is a need for more decomposition data across climatic gradients, and to advance understanding of the influence of changes in precipitation and freshwater availability, additional ecological data are needed from tidal saline wetlands in arid climates. Collectively, our results can help scientists and managers better anticipate the linear and nonlinear ecological consequences of climate change for coastal wetlands.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Complexity of Tropical Pacific Ecosystem and Biogeochemistry: Diurnal to Decadal, Plankters to Penguins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtugudde, R. G.; Wang, X.; Valsala, V.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

Tropical Pacific spans nearly 50% of the global tropics allowing to have its own mind in terms of climate variability and physical-biogeochemical interactions. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its flavors get much attention, it is fairly clear by now that any further improvements in ENSO prediction skills and reliability of global warming projections must begin to observe and represent bio-physical interactions in the climate and Earth System models. Coupled climate variability over the tropical Pacific has a global reach with its diurnal to decadal timescales being manifest in ecosystem and biogechemistry. Zonal and meridional contrasts in biogeochemistry across the tropical Pacific is closely related to seasonal variability, ENSO diversity and the PDO. Apparent dominance of ocean dynamic controls on biogeochemistry belies the potential biogeochemical feedbacks on ocean dynamics which may well explain some of the chronic biases in the state-of-the-art climate models. The east Pacific cold-tongue is the most productive open ocean region in the world and home to a unique physical-biogeochmical laboratory, viz., the Galapagos. The Galapagos islands not only control the coupled climate variability via their ability to terminate the equatorial undercurrent but also offer a clear example of a biological loophole in terms of their impact on local upwelling and an expanding penguin habitat in the face of global warming. The complex bio-physical interactions in the cold-tongue and their influence on climate predictions and projections require a holisti thinking on future observing systems. Tropical Pacific offers a natural laboratory for designing a robust and sustained physical-biogeochemical observation system that can effectively bridge climate predictions and projections into a unified framework for subseasonal to multidecadal timescales. Such a system will be a foundation for establishing similar systems over the rest of the World ocean to seemlessly merge climate predictions and projections with the need to constantly monitor climate impacts on marine resources. This talk will focus on the zonal contrasts of the ocean dynamics and biogechemistry across the tropical Pacific to make a case for integrated physical-biogeochemical observations for climate predictions and projections.

Short-term improvements in public health from global-climate policies on fossil-fuel combustion: an interim report. Working Group on Public Health and Fossil-Fuel Combustion.

PubMed

1997-11-08

Most public-health assessments of climate-control policies have focused on long-term impacts of global change. Our interdisciplinary working group assesses likely short-term impacts on public health. We combined models of energy consumption, carbon emissions, and associated atmospheric particulate-matter (PM) concentration under two different forecasts: business-as-usual (BAU); and a hypothetical climate-policy scenario, where developed and developing countries undertake significant reductions in carbon emissions. We predict that by 2020, 700,000 avoidable deaths (90% CI 385,000-1,034,000) will occur annually as a result of additional PM exposure under the BAU forecasts when compared with the climate-policy scenario. From 2000 to 2020, the cumulative impact on public health related to the difference in PM exposure could total 8 million deaths globally (90% CI 4.4-11.9 million). In the USA alone, the avoidable number of annual deaths from PM exposure in 2020 (without climate-change-control policy) would equal in magnitude deaths associated with human immunodeficiency diseases or all liver diseases in 1995. The mortality estimates are indicative of the magnitude of the likely health benefits of the climate-policy scenario examined and are not precise predictions of avoidable deaths. While characterized by considerable uncertainty, the short-term public-health impacts of reduced PM exposures associated with greenhouse-gas reductions are likely to be substantial even under the most conservative set of assumptions.

Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

2011-12-01

Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.

Dust influx into the northern Indian Ocean over the last 1.5 Myr.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkelová, Tereza; Kroon, Dick; Jung, Simon; de Leau, Erica S.; Odling, Nicholas; Spezzaferri, Silvia; Hayman, Stephanie; Alonso-Garcia, Montserrat; Wright, James D.; Alvarez Zarikian, Carlos; Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P.; Jovane, Luigi; Laya, Juan Carlos; Hui-Mee, Anna Ling; Reijmer, John; Reolid, Jesus; Sloss, Craig R.

2017-04-01

Over the last 2 Ma the Earth's climate has been profoundly affected by quasi-periodic changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. The Earth's climate reflects cooling and warming associated with this orbital forcing, such as periods of glaciation and warmer interglacials, variations in sea surface temperatures and changes in global wind patterns. During glacial periods, dust input into the oceans increased as a result of stronger surface winds and greater source area from increased desertification. At low latitudes, the seasonality of monsoonal wind direction controls dust transport into the ocean. This research identifies the main controls on dust influx into the northern Indian Ocean over the last 1.5 Ma by analyzing the first high resolution marine sediment record from the Maldives carbonate platform (IODP Expedition 359; Site U1467), an area strongly affected by the monsoon seasons. Here we present variations in the concentration of specific normalized elements, from X-ray fluorescence spectrometry, reflecting the chemistry of the dust particles and source areas. The new dust record will be compared to other records of climate change, mainly from the North Atlantic, to investigate the degree of coupling between driving forces in the Earth's climate in the northern hemisphere. The results of this study will aid our understanding of the monsoon system, low latitude desertification, and the degree of climate coupling, essential for predicting the response of the system to future anthropogenic climate change.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Climatic and biotic drivers of tropical evergreen forest photosynthesis: integrating field, eddy flux, remote sensing and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Serbin, S.; Xu, X.; Guan, K.; Albert, L.; Hayek, M.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Lopes, A. P.; Wiedemann, K. T.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Meng, R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Oliveira Junior, R. C.; Camargo, P. B. D.; Silva, R. D.; Nelson, B. W.; Huete, A. R.; Rogers, A.; Saleska, S. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical evergreen forest photosynthetic metabolism is an important driver of large-scale carbon, water, and energy cycles, generating various climate feedbacks. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding how best to represent evergreen forest photosynthesis in current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), especially its sensitivity to climatic vs. biotic variation. Here, we develop a new approach to partition climatic and biotic controls on tropical forest photosynthesis from hourly to inter-annual timescales. Our results show that climatic factors dominate photosynthesis dynamics at shorter-time scale (i.e. hourly), while biotic factors dominate longer-timescale (i.e. monthly and longer) photosynthetic dynamics. Focusing on seasonal timescales, we combine camera and ecosystem carbon flux observations of forests across a rainfall gradient in Amazonia to show that high dry season leaf turnover shifts canopy composition towards younger more efficient leaves. This seasonal variation in leaf quality (per-area leaf photosynthetic capacity) thus can explain the high photosynthetic seasonality observed in the tropics. Finally, we evaluated the performance of models with different phenological schemes (i.e. leaf quantity versus leaf quality; with and without leaf phenological variation alone the vertical canopy profile). We found that models which represented the phenology of leaf quality and its within-canopy variation performed best in simulating photosynthetic seasonality in tropical evergreen forests. This work highlights the importance of incorporating improved understanding of climatic and biotic controls in next generation TBMs to project future carbon and water cycles in the tropics.

Drivers of radial growth and carbon isotope discrimination of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) across continental gradients in precipitation, vapour pressure deficit and irradiance

EPA Science Inventory

Tree-ring characteristics including stable isotope composition are commonly used to reconstruct climate variables and establish mechanisms that underlie oscillations in modes of climate variability. However, divergence from the assumption of a single, primary biophysical control ...

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods In December, 2010, a consortium of EPA, Centers for Disease Control, and state and local health officials convened in Austin, Texas for a “participatory modeling workshop” on climate change effects on human health and health-environment interactions. ...

Improving restoration to control plant invasions under climate change

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Steve Norman

2012-01-01

Native forests and grasslands worldwide have been converted to developed lands or invaded by exotic species due to human activities. These pressures are predicted to increase with population growth and climatic stress in coming decades, escalating concerns for the viability of native species and communities that are affected. Ecological restoration is frequently...

Climatology of the interior Columbia River basin.

Treesearch

Sue A. Ferguson

1999-01-01

This work describes climate means and trends in each of three major ecological zones and 13 ecological reporting units in the interior Columbia River basin. Widely differing climates help define each major zone and reporting unit, the pattern of which is controlled by three competing air masses: marine, continental, and arctic. Paleoclimatic evidence and historical...

Appendix A: Ecoprovinces of the Central North American Cordillera and adjacent plains

Treesearch

Dennis A. Demarchi

1994-01-01

The fundamental difference between the map presented here and other regional ecosystem classifications is that this map's ecological units are based on climatic processes rather than vegetation communities (map appears at the end of this appendix). Macroclimatic processes are the physical and thermodynamic interaction between climatic controls, or the relatively...

School Climate: The Controllable and the Uncontrollable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sulak, Tracey N.

2018-01-01

A positive school climate impacts students by promoting positive relations among students, staff and faculty of the school. The current study used latent class analysis and multinomial regression with R3STEP to analyse patterns of negative behaviours in schools and test the association of these patterns with structural variables like school size,…