climate database modernization: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for climate database modernization

Development and testing of transfer functions for generating quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Ellyn J.; van der Kaars, Sander

2006-10-01

We review attempts to derive quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data, including the climatic envelope, climatic indicator and modern analogue approaches, and outline the need to pursue alternatives for use as input to, or validation of, simulations by models of past, present and future climate patterns. To this end, we have constructed and tested modern pollen-climate transfer functions for mainland southeastern Australia and Tasmania using the existing southeastern Australian pollen database and for northern Australia using a new pollen database we are developing. After testing for statistical significance, 11 parameters were selected for mainland southeastern Australia, seven for Tasmania and six for northern Australia. The functions are based on weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and their predictive ability evaluated against modern observational climate data using leave-one-out cross-validation. Functions for summer, annual and winter rainfall and temperatures are most robust for southeastern Australia, while in Tasmania functions for minimum temperature of the coldest period, mean winter and mean annual temperature are the most reliable. In northern Australia, annual and summer rainfall and annual and summer moisture indexes are the strongest. The validation of all functions means all can be applied to Quaternary pollen records from these three areas with confidence. Copyright
A modern plant-climate research dataset for modelling eastern North American plant taxa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, L. M.; Grimm, E. C.; Williams, J. W.; Nordheim, E. V.

2008-12-01

Continental-scale modern pollen-climate data repositories are a primary data source for paleoclimate reconstructions. However, these repositories can contain artifacts, such as records from different depositional environment and replicate records, that can influence the observed pollen-climate relationships as well as the paleoclimate reconstructions derived from these relationships. In this paper, we address the issues related to these artifacts as we define the methods used to create a research dataset from the North American Modern Pollen Database (Whitmore et al., 2005). Additionally, we define the methods used to select the environmental variables that are best for modeling regional pollen-climate relationships from the research dataset. Because the depositional environment determines the relative strengths of the local and regional pollen signals, combining data from different depositional environments results in pollen abundances that can be influenced by the local pollen signal. Replicate records in pollen-climate datasets can skew pollen-climate relationships by causing an over- or under- representation of pollen abundances in climate space. When these two artifacts are combined, the errors introduced into pollen-climate relationship modeling are compounded. The research dataset we present consists of 2,613 records in eastern North America, of which 70.9% are lacustrine sites. We demonstrate that this new research database improves upon the modeling of regional pollen-climate relationships for eastern North American taxa. The research dataset encompasses the majority of the temperature and mean summer precipitation ranges of the NAMPD's climatic range and 40% of its mean winter precipitation range. NAMPD sites with higher winter precipitation are located along the northwestern coast of North America where a rainshadow effect produces abundant winter precipitation. We present our analysis of the research dataset for use in paleoclimate reconstructions, and recommend that mean winter and summer temperature and precipitation variables be used for pollen-climate relationship modeling.
Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.
The First Modern Human Dispersals across Africa

PubMed Central

Rito, Teresa; Richards, Martin B.; Fernandes, Verónica; Alshamali, Farida; Cerny, Viktor

2013-01-01

The emergence of more refined chronologies for climate change and archaeology in prehistoric Africa, and for the evolution of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), now make it feasible to test more sophisticated models of early modern human dispersals suggested by mtDNA distributions. Here we have generated 42 novel whole-mtDNA genomes belonging to haplogroup L0, the most divergent clade in the maternal line of descent, and analysed them alongside the growing database of African lineages belonging to L0’s sister clade, L1’6. We propose that the last common ancestor of modern human mtDNAs (carried by “mitochondrial Eve”) possibly arose in central Africa ~180 ka, at a time of low population size. By ~130 ka two distinct groups of anatomically modern humans co-existed in Africa: broadly, the ancestors of many modern-day Khoe and San populations in the south and a second central/eastern African group that includes the ancestors of most extant worldwide populations. Early modern human dispersals correlate with climate changes, particularly the tropical African “megadroughts” of MIS 5 (marine isotope stage 5, 135–75 ka) which paradoxically may have facilitated expansions in central and eastern Africa, ultimately triggering the dispersal out of Africa of people carrying haplogroup L3 ~60 ka. Two south to east migrations are discernible within haplogroup LO. One, between 120 and 75 ka, represents the first unambiguous long-range modern human dispersal detected by mtDNA and might have allowed the dispersal of several markers of modernity. A second one, within the last 20 ka signalled by L0d, may have been responsible for the spread of southern click-consonant languages to eastern Africa, contrary to the view that these eastern examples constitute relicts of an ancient, much wider distribution. PMID:24236171
Miocene Soil Database: Global paleosol and climate maps of the Middle Miocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, C. A.

2013-12-01

Paleosols, which record past climatic, biologic, and atmospheric conditions, can be used as a proxy to understand ancient terrestrial landscapes, paleoclimate, and paleoenvironment. In addition, the middle Miocene thermal maximum (~16 Ma) provides an ancient analog for understanding the effects of current and future climate change on soil and ecosystem regimes, as it contains records of shifts similar in magnitude to expected global climate change. The Miocene Soil Database (MSDB) combines new paleosol data from Australia and Argentina with existing and previously uncollated paleosol data from the literature and the Paleobiology Database. These data (n = 507) were then used to derive a paleogeographic map of climatically significant soil types zones during the Middle Miocene. The location of each diagnostic paleosol type (Aridisol, Alfisol, Mollisol, Histosol, Oxisol, and Ultisol) was plotted and compared with the extent of these soil types in the modern environment. The middle Miocene soil map highlights the extension of tropical soils (Oxisols, Ultisols), accompanied by thermophilic flora and fauna, into northern and southern mid-latitudes. Peats, lignites, and Histosols of wetlands were also more abundant at higher latitudes, especially in the northern hemisphere, during the middle Miocene. The paleosol changes reflect that the Middle Miocene was a peak of global soil productivity and carbon sequestration, with replacement of unproductive Aridisols and Gelisols with more productive Oxisols, Alfisols, Mollisols and Histosols. With expansion to include additional data such as soil texture, moisture, or vegetation type, the MSDB has the potential to provide an important dataset for computer models of Miocene climate shifts as well as future land use considerations of soils in times of global change.
Mammalian Biogeography and the Latitudinal Climatic Gradient in Western North America During the Paleocene Evolutionary Radiation of Mammals (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, D. L.; Rose, P.

2010-12-01

We use the middle Paleocene (ca. 63-58) mammalian fossil record of western North America to examine the latitudinal gradients in both species richness and body size of mammals during their evolutionary radiation following the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Decreasing species richness with latitude is a biogeographic pattern common to most clades today, including mammals, and is linked to climatic gradients; an inverse relationship between body size and environmental temperature (Bergmann’s rule) is well-known both within and among species of living endothermic vertebrates, including diverse clades of mammals. Despite the frequency among mammals of these patterns today, their long-term histories in the fossil record is not well documented. We compiled mammalian taxonomic occurrence data from published literature, online museum collection databases, and the Paleobiology Database for roughly 160 Torrejonian (To, ca. 63-60 Ma) and Tiffanian (Ti, ca. 60-58 Ma) North American Land Mammal Age fossil localities in western North America from Texas to Alberta. These localities were binned into nine geographic regions based on paleolatitude, and the centroids of the regions span ca. 28° of latitude. For the faunas from these regions, we compiled body size data from the literature for 170 Paleocene (Torrejonian and Tiffanian) mammal species, using lower first molar area (m1 LxW) as a proxy for body mass. The phosphate oxygen isotope composition of teeth from species of a single clade of herbivorous mammals (Phenacodontidae) indicates that mid-Paleocene latitudinal climate gradients were broadly similar to modern gradients in the region, so we treat paleolatitude as a proxy for temperature. Slopes of separate least squares linear regressions of rarefied To and Ti species richness on paleolatitude are not significantly different from zero, and the regressions explain only a small fraction of the variances in richness. For all species, m1 area has a statistically significant negative relationship with paleolatitude. For both analyses, results are similar at the genus levels. In eight species that occur in four or more regions, none demonstrate a statistically significant increase in m1 area with latitude. Thus, despite climatic gradients in the mid-Paleocene that were similar to modern gradients, mammals in the region during the Paleocene appear to violate two essentially canonical biogeographic patterns seen in modern mammals and diverse other organisms, potentially ruling out climate as a long-term control on these patterns. The contrasts between the biogeography of modern and mid-Paleocene mammals in the region could result from distinct community ecology of faunas dominated by extinct “archaic” clades of mammals, ongoing ecological recovery after the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction, and/or the modern biogeographic patterns being geologically recent or episodic phenomenon and not long-term characteristics of the geographic distribution of mammalian species richness or body size.
Integrating the EMPD with an Alpine altitudinal training set to reconstruct climate variables in Holocene pollen records from high-altitude peat bogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlanetto, Giulia; Badino, Federica; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, Valter; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallé, Francesca

2016-04-01

Temperatures and precipitation are the main environmental factors influencing vegetation and pollen production. Knowing the modern climate optima and tolerances of those plants represented in fossil assemblages and assuming that the relationships between plants and climate in the past are not dissimilar from the modern ones, fossil pollen records offer many descriptors to reconstruct past climate variables. The aim of our work is to investigate the potential of high-altitude pollen records from an Alpine peat bog (TBValter, close to the Ruitor Glacier, Western Italian Alps) for quantitative paleoclimate estimates. The idea behind is that high-altitude ecosystems are more sensitive to climate changes, especially to changes in July temperatures that severely affect the timberline ecotone. Meantime, we met with difficulties when considering the factors involved in pollen dispersal over a complex altitudinal mountain pattern, such as the Alps. We used the EMPD-European Modern Pollen Database (Davis et al., 2013) as modern training set to be compared with our high-altitude fossil site. The EMPD dataset is valuable in that it provides a large geographic coverage of main ecological and climate gradients (at sub-continental scale) but lacks in sampling of altitudinal gradients and high-altitude sites in the Alps. We therefore designed an independent altitudinal training set for the alpine valley hosting our fossil site. 27 sampling plots were selected along a 1700m-elevational transect. In a first step, each plot was provided with (i) 3 moss polsters collected following the guidelines provided by Cañellas-Boltà et al. (2009) and analyzed separately to account for differences in pollen deposition at small scale, (ii) morphometrical parameters obtained through a high-resolution DEM, and (iii) temperature and precipitation were estimated by means of weighted linear regression of the meteorological variable versus elevation, locally evaluated for each site (Brunetti et al., 2014), starting from a dense and quality-controlled observational dataset. In the most advanced step, we designed calibration functions using modern pollen and climate data stored in the EMPD and integrated with the 27 samples from the altitudinal training set. Regression and calibration method (LWWA) and MAT (Modern Analogue Technique) were used to reconstruct temperatures and precipitation. We applied the models to our fossil site to infer temperatures of the coldest (Tjan) and warmest (Tjul) months and the mean annual precipitation (Pann). Finally we compared our results with established climate proxy records (oxygen isotope records from ice cores, records of Alpine Glaciers fluctuations, stalagmites). This research is promoted by the CNR-DTA NextData Project. Brunetti et al., 2014. International Journal of Climatology 34, 1278-1296. Cañellas-Boltà et al., 2009. The Holocene 19(8), 1185-1200. Davis et al., 2013. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 22, 521-530.
Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.
Modern pollen data from North America and Greenland for multi-scale paleoenvironmental applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitmore, J.; Gajewski, K.; Sawada, M.; Williams, J.W.; Shuman, B.; Bartlein, P.J.; Minckley, T.; Viau, A.E.; Webb, T.; Shafer, S.; Anderson, P.; Brubaker, L.

2005-01-01

The modern pollen network in North America and Greenland is presented as a database for use in quantitative calibration studies and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The georeferenced database includes 4634 samples from all regions of the continent and 134 pollen taxa that range from ubiquitous to regionally diagnostic taxa. Climate data and vegetation characteristics were assigned to every site. Automated and manual procedures were used to verify the accuracy of geographic coordinates and identify duplicate records among datasets, incomplete pollen sums, and other potential errors. Data are currently available for almost all of North America, with variable density. Pollen taxonomic diversity, as measured by the Shannon-Weiner coefficient, varies as a function of location, as some vegetation regions are dominated by one or two major pollen producers, while other regions have a more even composition of pollen taxa. Squared-chord distances computed between samples show that most modern pollen samples find analogues within their own vegetation zone. Both temperature and precipitation inferred from best analogues are highly correlated with observed values but temperature exhibits the strongest relation. Maps of the contemporary distribution of several pollen types in relation to the range of the plant taxon illustrate the correspondence between plant and pollen ranges. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modern and Interglacial Marine Ostracode Species Diversity Patterns off Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, W. T. R.; Yasuhara, M.; Cronin, T. M.; Hunt, G.; Gemery, L.

2016-02-01

Latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs) are a major feature of various marine groups. However, the detailed shape of LSDG in each marine taxonomic group and the causes of the diversity patterns, notably climatic factors, are still controversial due to limited sampling of many taxa in the world's oceans. We analyzed benthic podocopid ostracode faunal assemblages on the continental shelf regions from Arctic to tropical regions off eastern North America to determine biodiversity patterns and their relationships to oceanographic conditions (temperature, productivity, etc). Our database consists of 200 ostracode species from more than 100 bottom sediment samples. Preliminary results suggest that biodiversity, as measured using simple diversity (S), rarefaction, Shannon and α-Fisher indices, show strong latitudinal diversity gradients in which diversity is 2 to 3 times higher in tropical and subtropical regions that in northern high latitude areas. These modern ostracode diversity patterns will be compared with those from past interglacial periods of global warmth during the Pliocene and Pleistocene to assess the impact of warmer-than- present climate conditions on diversity.
Development of a North American paleoclimate pollen-based reconstruction database application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladd, Matthew; Mosher, Steven; Viau, Andre

2013-04-01

Recent efforts in synthesizing paleoclimate records across the globe has warranted an effort to standardize the different paleoclimate archives currently available in order to facilitate data-model comparisons and hence improve our estimates of future climate change. It is often the case that the methodology and programs make it challenging for other researchers to reproduce the results for a reconstruction, therefore there is a need for to standardize paleoclimate reconstruction databases in an application specific to proxy data. Here we present a methodology using the open source R language using North American pollen databases (e.g. NAPD, NEOTOMA) where this application can easily be used to perform new reconstructions and quickly analyze and output/plot the data. The application was developed to easily test methodological and spatial/temporal issues that might affect the reconstruction results. The application allows users to spend more time analyzing and interpreting results instead of on data management and processing. Some of the unique features of this R program are the two modules each with a menu making the user feel at ease with the program, the ability to use different pollen sums, select one of 70 climate variables available, substitute an appropriate modern climate dataset, a user-friendly regional target domain, temporal resolution criteria, linear interpolation and many other features for a thorough exploratory data analysis. The application program will be available for North American pollen-based reconstructions and eventually be made available as a package through the CRAN repository by late 2013.
The vegetation and climate of a Neogene petrified wood forest of Mizoram, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. P.; Mehrotra, R. C.; Srivastava, Gaurav; Shukla, Anumeha

2012-11-01

Eleven fossil woods belonging to seven families are described from a petrified wood forest of Mizoram. This fossil assemblage is derived from sediments belonging to the Tipam Group considered to be Late Miocene-Early Pliocene in age. The modern counterparts of the identified taxa are: Gluta L., Mangifera L. (Anacardiaceae), Bursera Jacq. ex L. (Burseraceae), Terminalia L. (Combretaceae), Shorea Roxb. (Dipterocarpaceae), Cynometra Linn., Dalbergia L. f., Millettia Wight et Arn.-Pongamia Vent, Ormosia Jacks. (Fabaceae), Artocarpus Forst. (Moraceae) and Madhuca Gmelin. (Sapotaceae). The genus Dalbergia is described for the first time from India. The modern environmental tolerances of the above taxa indicate the existence of a tropical warm and humid climate in Mizoram during the depositional period. The reconstructed climate data using Coexistence Approach (CoA) based on palaeoflora database of Mosbrugger and Utescher, along with other published data sets indicates an MAT (mean annual temperature) of 26.1-27.7 °C, a mean temperature of the warmest month (WMT) of 25.4-28.1 °C, a mean temperature of the coldest month (CMT) of 25.6-26 °C, and a mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 3180-3263 mm. These climatic interpretations are congruent with the data obtained from the anatomical features of all the fossil taxa. As all the fossil taxa possess diffuse porous wood, they further indicate a tropical climate with little seasonality. The majority of the taxa in the fossil assemblage generally have large vessels and simple perforation plates which indicate high precipitation. The present study provides vital evidence of floral exchange or migration between India and southeast Asia.
The impact of using different modern climate data sets in pollen-based paleoclimate reconstructions of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladd, M.; Way, R. G.; Viau, A. E.

2015-03-01

The use of different modern climate data sets is shown to impact a continental-scale pollen-based reconstruction of mean July temperature (TJUL) over the last 2000 years for North America. Data from climate stations, physically modeled from climate stations and reanalysis products are used to calibrate the reconstructions. Results show that the use of reanalysis products produces warmer and/or smoother reconstructions as compared to the use of station based data sets. The reconstructions during the period of 1050-1550 CE are shown to be more variable because of a high latitude cold-bias in the modern TJUL data. The ultra-high resolution WorldClim gridded data may only useful if the modern pollen sites have at least the same spatial precision as the gridded dataset. Hence we justify the use of the lapse-rate corrected University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) based Whitmore modern climate data set for North American pollen-based climate reconstructions.
Deploying anaerobic digesters: Current status and future possibilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lusk, P.; Wheeler, P.; Rivard, C.

1996-01-01

Unmanaged pollutants from putrescible farm, industrial, and municipal wastes degrade in the environment, and methane emitted from their decomposition may contribute to global climate change. Under modern environmental regulations, these wastes are becoming difficult to dispose of using traditional means. One waste management system, anaerobic digestion or AD, not only provides pollution prevention but can also convert a disposal problem into a new profit center. This report is drawn from a special session of the Second Biomass Conference of the Americas. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.
How Novel are 21st Century Climates? A Global Assessment of Future Climates and their Analogs Back Through the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.; Jackson, S. T.

2016-12-01

Climate change is a multivariate process, where changes in the environmental space of a location will likely drive biotic responses of the flora and fauna that inhabit the region. In the face of a rapidly changing climate it is important to understand what the future may hold for ecosystems. One method commonly applied to understand how dissimilar future climates will be relative to the modern period is no-analog analysis. This has been done for 21st century climates relative to the modern period, but has not been extended through the paleorecord. Using HadCM3, CCSM3 TraCE-21ka, PMIP3, PlioMIP2 and EoMIP climate simulations, we assess global and regional climatic novelty by identifying the closest analogs in these periods for both future (21st century) and modern climates. This baseline offers a full range climate space with significant overlap of modern and future projected climates, and allows us to assess both emergences and disappearances of analog climate conditions throughout the past. This extended baseline includes past glacial and interglacial climates, as well as past earth warm periods. Past earth warm periods such as the middle to late Pliocene and the early Eocene may be most similar to projections of future climate, so it is important to evaluate our understanding of these global climates. Here we calculate dissimilarity to quantify novelty and no-analog conditions using the Standardized Euclidian Distance, as well as the Mahalanobis distance. Our work shows that nearest climate analogs for the modern period, as well as future climates, existed and disappeared during past warm periods. These results suggest that though climate change may be regionally novel relative to the modern period for some locations, analogs do exist through the paleorecord which in some cases reduce novelty. Nevertheless, novelty remains high in some locations suggesting that some future climates may be unprecedented.
Strong influence of palaeoclimate on the structure of modern African mammal communities.

PubMed

Rowan, John; Kamilar, Jason M; Beaudrot, Lydia; Reed, Kaye E

2016-10-12

Ecological research often assumes that species are adapted to their current climatic environments. However, climate fluctuations over geologic timescales have influenced species dispersal and extinction, which in turn may affect community structure. Modern community structure is likely to be the product of both palaeoclimate and modern climate, with the relative degrees of influence of past and present climates unknown. Here, we assessed the influence of climate at different time periods on the phylogenetic and functional trait structure of 203 African mammal communities. We found that the climate of the mid-Holocene (approx. 6000 years ago) and Last Glacial Maximum (approx. 22 000 years ago) were frequently better predictors of community structure than modern climate for mammals overall, carnivorans and ungulates. Primate communities were more strongly influenced by modern climate than palaeoclimate. Overall, community structure of African mammals appears to be related to the ecological flexibility of the groups considered here and the regions of continental Africa that they occupy. Our results indicate that the future redistribution, expansion and contraction of particular biomes due to human activity, such as climate and land-use change, will differentially affect mammal groups that vary in their sensitivity to environmental change. © 2016 The Author(s).
Does using different modern climate datasets impact pollen-based paleoclimate reconstructions in North America during the past 2,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladd, Matthew; Viau, Andre

2013-04-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions rely on the accuracy of modern climate datasets for calibration of fossil records under the assumption of climate normality through time, which means that the modern climate operates in a similar manner as over the past 2,000 years. In this study, we show how using different modern climate datasets have an impact on a pollen-based reconstruction of mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA) during the past 2,000 years for North America. The modern climate datasets used to explore this research question include the: Whitmore et al., (2005) modern climate dataset; North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR); National Center For Environmental Prediction (NCEP); European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalysis; WorldClim, Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) and New et al., which is derived from the CRU dataset. Results show that some caution is advised in using the reanalysis data on large-scale reconstructions. Station data appears to dampen out the variability of the reconstruction produced using station based datasets. The reanalysis or model-based datasets are not recommended for paleoclimate large-scale North American reconstructions as they appear to lack some of the dynamics observed in station datasets (CRU) which resulted in warm-biased reconstructions as compared to the station-based reconstructions. The Whitmore et al. (2005) modern climate dataset appears to be a compromise between CRU-based datasets and model-based datasets except for the ERA-40. In addition, an ultra-high resolution gridded climate dataset such as WorldClim may only be useful if the pollen calibration sites in North America have at least the same spatial precision. We reconstruct the MTWA to within +/-0.01°C by using an average of all curves derived from the different modern climate datasets, demonstrating the robustness of the procedure used. It may be that the use of an average of different modern datasets may reduce the impact of uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions, however, this is yet to be determined with certainty. Future evaluation using for example the newly developed Berkeley earth surface temperature datasets should be tested against the paleoclimate record.
A Model Based Mars Climate Database for the Mission Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on a model based climate database is shown. The topics include: 1) Why a model based climate database?; 2) Mars Climate Database v3.1 Who uses it ? (approx. 60 users!); 3) The new Mars Climate database MCD v4.0; 4) MCD v4.0: what's new ? 5) Simulation of Water ice clouds; 6) Simulation of Water ice cycle; 7) A new tool for surface pressure prediction; 8) Acces to the database MCD 4.0; 9) How to access the database; and 10) New web access
PaleoGeo: a Web based GIS database for paleoenvironmental studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Wonsuh; Kondo, Yasuhisa; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

Paleoenvironmental studies cover various fields such as paleohydrology, geomorphology, paleooceanology, paleobiology, paleoclimatology, and chronology. It is difficult for an individual researcher to collect and compile enormous data regarding these fields. We have been compiling portal data and presenting them using a web-based geographical information system (Web-GIS) called PaleoGeo for the multidisciplinary project 'Replacement of Neanderthals by Modern Humans'. The aim of the project is to reconstruct the distribution of Neanderthals and modern humans in time and space in relation to past climate change. We have been collecting information from almost three thousand articles of 13 journals regarding paleoenvironmental research (i.e., Boreas, Catena, Climatic Change, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Geomorphology, Journal of Quaternary Science, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, and Palaeoecology, Quaternary International, Quaternary Research, Quaternary Science Reviews, The Holocene, and The Journal of Geology). The topics of the articles were classified into six themes (paleohydrology, earth surface processes and materials, paleooceanology, paleobiology, palaeoclimatology, and chronology) and 19 subthemes (hydrology, flood, fluvial, glacier, fluvial/glacier, sedimentology, soil, slope process, periglacial, peat land, eolian, sea-level, biology, vegetation, zoology, vegetation/zoology, archaeology, climate, atmosphere, and chronology). The collected data consist of the journal name, information about each paper (authors, title, volume, year, and page numbers), site location (country name, longitude, and latitude), theme, subtheme, keywords, DOI (Digital Object Identifier), and period (era). Location data are indispensable for paleoenvironmental studies. The PaleoGeo shows information with a map, which is an advantage of this database system. However, the number of the paleoenvironmental studies is growing rapidly and we have to effectively cover them as many as possible. We plan to simplify the input data (latitude, longitude, title and DOI only) to include more publications. So far information about >7500 sites has been collected and the number is increasing. The collected data are accessible via the internet (http://neangis.csis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/paleogeo/).
A database of biological and geomorphological sea-level markers from the Last Glacial Maximum to present

PubMed Central

Hibbert, F.D.; Williams, F.H.; Fallon, S.J.; Rohling, E.J.

2018-01-01

The last deglacial was an interval of rapid climate and sea-level change, including the collapse of large continental ice sheets. This database collates carefully assessed sea-level data from peer-reviewed sources for the interval 0 to 25 thousand years ago (ka), from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present interglacial. In addition to facilitating site-specific reconstructions of past sea levels, the database provides a suite of data beyond the range of modern/instrumental variability that may help hone future sea-level projections. The database is global in scope, internally consistent, and contains U-series and radiocarbon dated indicators from both biological and geomorpohological archives. We focus on far-field data (i.e., away from the sites of the former continental ice sheets), but some key intermediate (i.e., from the Caribbean) data are also included. All primary fields (i.e., sample location, elevation, age and context) possess quantified uncertainties, which—in conjunction with available metadata—allows the reconstructed sea levels to be interpreted within both their uncertainties and geological context. PMID:29809175

Terrestrial climate evolution in the Southwest Pacific over the past 30 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prebble, Joseph G.; Reichgelt, Tammo; Mildenhall, Dallas C.; Greenwood, David R.; Raine, J. Ian; Kennedy, Elizabeth M.; Seebeck, Hannu C.

2017-02-01

A reconstruction of terrestrial temperature and precipitation for the New Zealand landmass over the past ∼30 million years is produced using pollen data from >2000 samples lodged in the New Zealand Fossil Record Electronic Database and modern climate data of nearest living relatives. The reconstruction reveals a warming trend through the late Oligocene to early Miocene, peak warmth in the middle Miocene, and stepwise cooling through the late Neogene. Whereas the regional signal in our reconstruction includes a ∼5-10° northward tectonic drift, as well as an increase in high altitude biomes due to late Neogene and Pliocene uplift of the Southern Alps, the pattern mimics inferred changes in global ice extent, which suggests that global drivers played a major role in shaping local vegetation. Importantly, seasonal temperature estimates indicate low seasonality during the middle Miocene, and that subsequent Neogene cooling was largely due to cooler winters. We suggest that this may reflect increased Subantarctic influence on New Zealand vegetation as the climate cooled.
The Interfaces Between Historical, Paleo-, and Modern Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, C. J.

2011-12-01

Historical climatology, commonly defined as the study of reconstructing past climates from documentary and early instrumental data, has routinely utilized data within the last several hundred years down to sub-daily temporal resolution prior to the advent of "modern" instrumental records beginning in the late 19th and 20th centuries. Historical climate reconstruction methods generally share similar aspects conducted in both paleoclimate reconstruction and modern climatology, given the need to quantify, calibrate, and conduct careful data quality assessments. Although some studies have integrated historical climatic studies with other high resolution paleoclimatic proxies, very few efforts have integrated historical data with modern "systematic" climate networks to further examine spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability. This presentation describes historical climate examples of how such data can be integrated within modern climate timescales, including examples of documentary data on tropical cyclones from the Western Pacific and Atlantic Basins, colonial records from Belize and Constantinople, ship logbooks in the Western Arctic, plantation diaries from the American Southeast, and newspaper data from the Fiji Islands and Bermuda. Some results include a unique wet period in Belize and active tropical cyclone periods in the Western and South Pacific in the early 20th century - both are not reflected in conventional modern climate datasets. Documentary data examples demonstrate high feasibility in further understanding extreme weather events at daily timeframes such as false spring/killing frost episodes and hydrological extremes in southeastern North America. Recent unique efforts also involve community participation, secondary education, and web- based volunteer efforts to digitize and archive historical weather and climate information.
Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.
Ice Nucleating Particles around the world - a global review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanji, Zamin A.; Atkinson, James; Sierau, Berko; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-04-01

In the atmosphere the formation of new ice particles at temperatures above -36 °C is due to a subset of aerosol called Ice Nucleating Particles (INP). However, the spatial and temporal evolution of such particles is poorly understood. Current modelling of INP is attempting to estimate the sources and transport of INP, but is hampered by the availability and convenience of INP observations. As part of the EU FP7 project impact of Biogenic versus Anthropogenic emissions on Clouds and Climate: towards a Holistic UnderStanding (BACCHUS), historical and contemporary observations of INP have been collated into a database (http://www.bacchus-env.eu/in/) and are reviewed here. Outside of Europe and North America the coverage of measurements is sparse, especially for modern day climate - in many areas the only measurements available are from the mid-20th century. As well as an overview of all the data in the database, correlations with several accompanying variables are presented. For example, immersion freezing INP seem to be negatively correlated with altitude, whereas CFDC based condensation freezing INP show no height correlation. An initial global parameterisation of INP concentrations taking into account freezing temperature and relative humidity for use in modelling is provided.
Revisiting Melton: Analyzing the correlation structure of geomorphological and climatological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carothers, R. A.; Sangireddy, H.; Passalacqua, P.

2013-12-01

In his expansive 1957 study of over 80 basins in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah, Mark Melton measured key morphometric, soil, land cover, and climatic parameters [Melton, 1957]. He identified correlations between morphological parameters and climatic regimes in an attempt to characterize the geomorphology of the basin as a function of climate and vegetation. Using modern techniques such as high resolution digital terrain models in combination with high spatial resolution weather station records, vector soil maps, seamless raster geological data, and land cover vector maps, we revisit Melton's 1957 dataset with the following hypotheses: (1) Patterns of channelization carry strong, codependent signatures in the form of statistical correlations of rainfall variability, soil type, and vegetation patterns. (2) Channelization patterns reflect the erosion processes on sub-catchment scale and the subsequent processes of vegetation recovery and gullying. In order to characterize various topographic and climatic parameters, we obtain elevation and land cover data from the USGS National Elevation dataset, climate data from the Western Regional Climate Center and PRISM climate group database, and soil type from the USDA STATSGO soil database. We generate a correlative high resolution database on vegetation, soil cover, lithology, and climatology for the basins identified by Melton in his 1957 study. Using the GeoNet framework developed by Passalacqua et al. [2010], we extract various morphological parameters such as slope, drainage density, and stream frequency. We also calculate metrics for patterns of channelization such as number of channelized pixels in a basin and channel head density. In order to understand the correlation structure between climate and morphological variables, we compute the Pearson's correlation coefficient similar to Melton's analysis and also explore other statistical procedures to characterize the feedbacks between these variables. By identifying the differences in Melton's and our results, we address the influence of climate over the degree of channel dissection in the landscape. References: Melton, M. A. (1957). An analysis of the relations among elements of climate, surface properties, and geomorphology (No. CU-TR-11). COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK Passalacqua, P., Do Trung, T., Foufoula-Georgiou, E., Sapiro, G., & Dietrich, W. E. (2010). A geometric framework for channel network extraction from lidar: Nonlinear diffusion and geodesic paths. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (2003-2012), 115(F1). PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, created 4 Feb 2004 Soil Survey Staff, Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture. U.S. General Soil Map (STATSGO2). Available online at http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov USGS National Map Viewer, United States Geological Survey. Web. 10 June 2013. http://viewer.nationalmap.gov/viewer/ Western U.S. Historical Climate Summaries, Western Regional Climate Group, 2013. Web. 10 June 2013. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html
Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

2012-01-01

The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two species were in the least risk category, while 20 species were in the highest risk category. The assessment showed that species respond independently to predicted climate change, suggesting that current plant assemblages may disassemble under predicted climate change scenarios. This report presents the results for each species in tables (Appendix A) and maps (14 for each species) in Appendix B.
Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DAntoni, Hector; Schaebitz, Frank

1995-01-01

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.
Correlations between Climate Change and the Modern European Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumińska, Anna

2017-10-01

The aim of the study was to analyze the links between climate change and the way modern cities are structured and responded to climate change. How do these changes affect building materials and technologies, or does climate change affect the type of technology and materials used? The most important results are the effects of analysing selected examples of a modern European building, the use of materials and technology, the adaptation of buildings to the changing climate. Selected examples of contemporary architecture from Germany, Italy and Denmark, Norway and Sweden. There are also examples in photographic documentation. The most important criteria affecting the objects are elements that shape the changing climate, as well as existing legal and technical requirements. The main conclusion was that modern urban space is adapted to the changing climate. Unprecedented climatic phenomena in this area: intense and sudden rain, snow, floods, strong winds, abundant sunshine, high temperature changes, greenhouse effect of the city - “island heat”, atmospheric pollution. Building materials and technologies contribute to the optimal conservation of natural resources, buildings are shaped in such a way as to ensure safety, resilience and environmental protection. However, there is still a need for continuous monitoring of climate change, criteria affecting the design and construction of urban and central facilities. Key words: energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change, contemporary architecture.
A modern pollen-climate dataset from the Darjeeling area, eastern Himalaya: Assessing its potential for past climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Ruby; Bruch, Angela A.; Portmann, Felix; Bera, Subir; Paruya, Dipak Kumar; Morthekai, P.; Ali, Sheikh Nawaz

2017-10-01

Relying on the ability of pollen assemblages to differentiate among elevationally stratified vegetation zones, we assess the potential of a modern pollen-climate dataset from the Darjeeling area, eastern Himalaya, in past climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 73 surface samples from 25 sites collected from a c. 130-3600 m a.s.l. elevation gradient along a horizontal distance of c. 150 km and 124 terrestrial pollen taxa, which are analysed with respect to various climatic and environmental variables such as mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean temperature of coldest quarter (MTCQ), mean temperature of warmest quarter (MTWQ), mean precipitation of driest quarter (MPDQ), mean precipitation of wettest quarter (MPWQ), AET (actual evapotranspiration) and MI (moisture index). To check the reliability of the modern pollen-climate relationships different ordination methods are employed and subsequently tested with Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models. A series of pollen-climate parameter transfer functions using weighted-averaging regression and calibration partial least squares (WA-PLS) models are developed to reconstruct past climate changes from modern pollen data, and have been cross-validated. Results indicate that three of the environmental variables i.e., MTCQ, MPDQ and MI have strong potential for past climate reconstruction based on the available surface pollen dataset. The potential of the present modern pollen-climate relationship for regional quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction is further tested on a Late Quaternary fossil pollen profile from the Darjeeling foothill region with previously reconstructed and quantified climate. The good agreement with existing data allows for new insights in the hydroclimatic conditions during the Last glacial maxima (LGM) with (winter) temperature being the dominant controlling factor for glacial changes during the LGM in the eastern Himalaya.
Femoral neck-shaft angle in humans: variation relating to climate, clothing, lifestyle, sex, age and side.

PubMed

Gilligan, Ian; Chandraphak, Supichya; Mahakkanukrauh, Pasuk

2013-08-01

The femoral neck-shaft angle (NSA) varies among modern humans but measurement problems and sampling limitations have precluded the identification of factors contributing to its variation at the population level. Potential sources of variation include sex, age, side (left or right), regional differences in body shape due to climatic adaptation, and the effects of habitual activity patterns (e.g. mobile and sedentary lifestyles and foraging, agricultural, and urban economies). In this study we addressed these issues, using consistent methods to assemble a global NSA database comprising over 8000 femora representing 100 human groups. Results from the analyses show an average NSA for modern humans of 127° (markedly lower than the accepted value of 135°); there is no sex difference, no age-related change in adults, but possibly a small lateral difference which could be due to right leg dominance. Climatic trends consistent with principles based on Bergmann's rule are evident at the global and continental levels, with the NSA varying in relation to other body shape indices: median NSA, for instance, is higher in warmer regions, notably in the Pacific (130°), whereas lower values (associated with a more stocky body build) are found in regions where ancestral populations were exposed to colder conditions, in Europe (126°) and the Americas (125°). There is a modest trend towards increasing NSA with the economic transitions from forager to agricultural and urban lifestyles and, to a lesser extent, from a mobile to a sedentary existence. However, the main trend associated with these transitions is a progressive narrowing in the range of variation in the NSA, which may be attributable to thermal insulation provided by improved cultural buffering from climate, particularly clothing. © 2013 Anatomical Society.
Femoral neck-shaft angle in humans: variation relating to climate, clothing, lifestyle, sex, age and side

PubMed Central

Gilligan, Ian; Chandraphak, Supichya; Mahakkanukrauh, Pasuk

2013-01-01

The femoral neck-shaft angle (NSA) varies among modern humans but measurement problems and sampling limitations have precluded the identification of factors contributing to its variation at the population level. Potential sources of variation include sex, age, side (left or right), regional differences in body shape due to climatic adaptation, and the effects of habitual activity patterns (e.g. mobile and sedentary lifestyles and foraging, agricultural, and urban economies). In this study we addressed these issues, using consistent methods to assemble a global NSA database comprising over 8000 femora representing 100 human groups. Results from the analyses show an average NSA for modern humans of 127° (markedly lower than the accepted value of 135°); there is no sex difference, no age-related change in adults, but possibly a small lateral difference which could be due to right leg dominance. Climatic trends consistent with principles based on Bergmann's rule are evident at the global and continental levels, with the NSA varying in relation to other body shape indices: median NSA, for instance, is higher in warmer regions, notably in the Pacific (130°), whereas lower values (associated with a more stocky body build) are found in regions where ancestral populations were exposed to colder conditions, in Europe (126°) and the Americas (125°). There is a modest trend towards increasing NSA with the economic transitions from forager to agricultural and urban lifestyles and, to a lesser extent, from a mobile to a sedentary existence. However, the main trend associated with these transitions is a progressive narrowing in the range of variation in the NSA, which may be attributable to thermal insulation provided by improved cultural buffering from climate, particularly clothing. PMID:23781912
Assessing Controls on the Geometry and Dimensions of Modern Barrier Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulhern, J.; Johnson, C. L.; Martin, J. M.

2015-12-01

Barrier islands are highly ephemeral features, shaped by wave, tide, and storm energy. The processes that govern the size, shape, and motion of barrier islands are not well constrained, yet central to coastal dynamics. While the global distribution of barrier islands has been mapped and assessed, there is little consensus on the forces controlling barrier island formation, motion, or preservation. This study presents a new semi-global database of modern barrier islands to better understand their morphology and spatial distribution. We have mapped, in Google Earth, the subaerial extent of >350 barrier islands and spits, measuring spatial characteristic such as exposed area, perimeter, length, and width. These objects are cross-referenced with parameters that potentially control morphology, including tidal range, wave height, climate, distance from the continental shelf, proximity to fluvial output, and tectonic setting. This approach provides a more optimal framework to assess controls on coastal features, including barrier island morphology, and to investigate potential geometric scaling relationships. Preliminary analysis shows trends in the spatial characteristics of barrier islands. There is a strong linear relationship between the perimeter and length (y= -0.59 + 0.42x, R2=0.95). Linear trends also relate length to area when the data are separated by tidal range to wave height ratio. Assessment of barrier island shape supports the hypothesis of Hayes (1979) that barrier islands in wave-dominated settings are long and linear while those in mixed energy setting are more rounded. The barrier islands of the Texas Gulf of Mexico are larger than the global average for the database, with distinctly longer length values (41.16 km vs. 15.77 km respectively) and larger areas (103.81 km2 vs. 42.14 km2 respectively). Initial assessment shows that tidal range and wave height are primary controls barrier island dimensions. Future work will consider climate, latitude, fluvial input, and tectonic regime as additional factors. Assessing modern barrier islands will lend insight into potential paleomorphodynamic relationships and help determine how islands are transferred into the rock record, with implications for sequence stratigraphy, subsurface reservoirs, etc.
Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

2017-12-01

Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more economic reasons, such as predicting reservoir presence, distribution, and connectivity in continental basins. The ultimate objective of this research is to develop differentiated fluvial facies and architecture based on the observed discharge patterns in the different climate zones.
Marine sediment cores database for the Mediterranean Basin: a tool for past climatic and environmental studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberico, I.; Giliberti, I.; Insinga, D. D.; Petrosino, P.; Vallefuoco, M.; Lirer, F.; Bonomo, S.; Cascella, A.; Anzalone, E.; Barra, R.; Marsella, E.; Ferraro, L.

2017-06-01

Paleoclimatic data are essential for fingerprinting the climate of the earth before the advent of modern recording instruments. They enable us to recognize past climatic events and predict future trends. Within this framework, a conceptual and logical model was drawn to physically implement a paleoclimatic database named WDB-Paleo that includes the paleoclimatic proxies data of marine sediment cores of the Mediterranean Basin. Twenty entities were defined to record four main categories of data: a) the features of oceanographic cruises and cores (metadata); b) the presence/absence of paleoclimatic proxies pulled from about 200 scientific papers; c) the quantitative analysis of planktonic and benthonic foraminifera, pollen, calcareous nannoplankton, magnetic susceptibility, stable isotopes, radionuclides values of about 14 cores recovered by Institute for Coastal Marine Environment (IAMC) of Italian National Research Council (CNR) in the framework of several past research projects; d) specific entities recording quantitative data on δ18O, AMS 14C (Accelerator Mass Spectrometry) and tephra layers available in scientific papers. Published data concerning paleoclimatic proxies in the Mediterranean Basin are recorded only for 400 out of 6000 cores retrieved in the area and they show a very irregular geographical distribution. Moreover, the data availability decreases when a constrained time interval is investigated or more than one proxy is required. We present three applications of WDB-Paleo for the Younger Dryas (YD) paleoclimatic event at Mediterranean scale and point out the potentiality of this tool for integrated stratigraphy studies.
A Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based analysis of modern South African rodent distributions, habitat use, and environmental tolerances.

PubMed

Campbell, Timothy L; Lewis, Patrick J; Thies, Monte L; Williams, Justin K

2012-11-01

GOALS OF THIS STUDY WERE TO: (1) develop distributional maps of modern rodent genera throughout the countries of South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland by georeferencing museum specimens; (2) assess habitat preferences for genera by cross-referencing locality position with South African vegetation; and (3) identify mean annual precipitation and temperature range where the genera are located. Conterminous South Africa including the countries of Lesotho and Swaziland Digital databases of rodent museum specimens housed in the Ditsong National Museum of Natural History, South Africa (DM), and the Division of Mammals, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, United States (NMNH), were acquired and then sorted into a subset of specimens with associated coordinate data. The coordinate data were then used to develop distributional maps for the rodent genera present within the study area. Percent habitat occupation and descriptive statistics for six climatic variables were then determined for each genus by cross-referencing locality positions with vegetation and climatic maps. This report presents a series of maps illustrating the distribution of 35 rodent genera based on 19,471 geo-referenced specimens obtained from two major collections. Inferred habitat use by taxon is provided for both locality and specimen percent occurrence at three hierarchical habitat levels: biome, bioregion, and vegetation unit. Descriptive statistics for six climatic variables are also provided for each genus based on locality and specimen percent incidence. As rodent faunas are commonly used in paleoenvironmental reconstructions, an accurate assessment of rodent environmental tolerance ranges is necessary before confidence can be placed in an actualistic model. While the data presented here represent only a subset of the modern geographic distributions for many of the taxa examined, a wide range of environmental regimes are observed, suggesting that more research is necessary in order to accurately reconstruct an environmental signature when these taxa are found in the fossil record.
A comparison of high-resolution pollen-inferred climate data from central Minnesota, USA, to 19th century US military fort climate data and tree-ring inferred climate reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St Jacques, J.; Cumming, B. F.; Sauchyn, D.; Vanstone, J. R.; Dickenson, J.; Smol, J. P.

2013-12-01

A vital component of paleoclimatology is the validation of paleoclimatological reconstructions. Unfortunately, there is scant instrumental data prior to the 20th century available for this. Hence, typically, we can only do long-term validation using other proxy-inferred climate reconstructions. Minnesota, USA, with its long military fort climate records beginning in 1820 and early dense network of climate stations, offers a rare opportunity for proxy validation. We compare a high-resolution (4-year), millennium-scale, pollen-inferred paleoclimate record derived from varved Lake Mina in central Minnesota to early military fort records and dendroclimatological records. When inferring a paleoclimate record from a pollen record, we rely upon the pollen-climate relationship being constant in time. However, massive human impacts have significantly altered vegetation; and the relationship between modern instrumental climate data and the modern pollen rain becomes altered from what it was in the past. In the Midwest, selective logging, fire suppression, deforestation and agriculture have strongly influenced the modern pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-1800s. We assess the signal distortion introduced by using the conventional method of modern post-settlement pollen and climate calibration sets to infer climate at Lake Mina from pre-settlement pollen data. Our first February and May temperature reconstructions are based on a pollen dataset contemporaneous with early settlement to which corresponding climate data from the earliest instrumental records has been added to produce a 'pre-settlement' calibration set. The second February and May temperature reconstructions are based on a conventional 'modern' pollen-climate dataset from core-top pollen samples and modern climate normals. The temperature reconstructions are then compared to the earliest instrumental records from Fort Snelling, Minnesota, and it is shown that the reconstructions based on the pre-settlement calibration set give much more credible reconstructions. We then compare the temperature reconstructions based upon the two calibration sets for AD 1116-2002. Significant signal flattening and bias exist when using the conventional modern pollen-climate calibration set rather than the pre-settlement pollen-climate calibration set, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age monthly mean temperatures of 0.5-1.5 oC. Therefore, regional warming from anthropogenic global warming is significantly underestimated when using the conventional method of building pollen-climate calibration sets. We also compare the Lake Mina pollen-inferred effective moisture record to early 19th century climate data and to a four-century tree-ring inferred moisture reconstruction based upon sites in Minnesota and the Dakotas. This comparison shows that regional tree-ring reconstructions are biased towards dry conditions and record wet periods poorly relative to high-resolution pollen reconstructions, giving a false impression of regional aridity. It also suggests that varve chronologies should be based upon cross-dating to ensure a more accurate chronology.
Distributed data discovery, access and visualization services to Improve Data Interoperability across different data holdings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palanisamy, G.; Krassovski, M.; Devarakonda, R.; Santhana Vannan, S.

2012-12-01

The current climate debate is highlighting the importance of free, open, and authoritative sources of high quality climate data that are available for peer review and for collaborative purposes. It is increasingly important to allow various organizations around the world to share climate data in an open manner, and to enable them to perform dynamic processing of climate data. This advanced access to data can be enabled via Web-based services, using common "community agreed" standards without having to change their internal structure used to describe the data. The modern scientific community has become diverse and increasingly complex in nature. To meet the demands of such diverse user community, the modern data supplier has to provide data and other related information through searchable, data and process oriented tool. This can be accomplished by setting up on-line, Web-based system with a relational database as a back end. The following common features of the web data access/search systems will be outlined in the proposed presentation: - A flexible data discovery - Data in commonly used format (e.g., CSV, NetCDF) - Preparing metadata in standard formats (FGDC, ISO19115, EML, DIF etc.) - Data subseting capabilities and ability to narrow down to individual data elements - Standards based data access protocols and mechanisms (SOAP, REST, OpenDAP, OGC etc.) - Integration of services across different data systems (discovery to access, visualizations and subseting) This presentation will also include specific examples of integration of various data systems that are developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory's - Climate Change Science Institute, their ability to communicate between each other to enable better data interoperability and data integration. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, and Harold Shanafield. "Drupal: Collaborative framework for science research." Collaboration Technologies and Systems (CTS), 2011 International Conference on. IEEE, 2011. [2]Devarakonda, R., Shrestha, B., Palanisamy, G., Hook, L. A., Killeffer, T. S., Boden, T. A., ... & Lazer, K. (2014). THE NEW ONLINE METADATA EDITOR FOR GENERATING STRUCTURED METADATA. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).
Particulate Matter and Ozone Prediction and Source Attribution for U.S. Air Quality Management in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanyal, S.; Wuebbles, D. J.

2017-12-01

In this study, the focus is on how global changes in climate and emissions will affect the U.S. air quality, especially on fine particulate matter and ozone, projecting their future trends and quantifying key source attribution. We are conducting three primary experiments : (1) historical simulations for period 1994-2013 to establish the credibility of the system and refine process-level understanding of U.S. regional air quality; (2) projections for period 2041-2060 to quantify individual and combined impacts of global climate and emissions changes under multiple scenarios; (3) sensitivity analyses to determine future changes in pollution sources and their relative contributions from anthropogenic and natural emissions, long-range pollutant transport, and climate change effects. Here we will present the result from the first experiment with the global model CESM1.2 (with fully coupled chemistry using CAM-chem5) driven by NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data at 0.9o x 1.25o resolution. We will present the comparison between the results from model simulation with observation data from EPA database. Since there is always a challenge in comparing gridded prediction from model data with point data from the observation databases, because the model simulations calculate the average outcome over a grid for a given set of conditions while the stochastic component (e.g. sub-grid variations) embedded in the observations are not accounted for, we are using extensive statistical measure to do the comparison. We will also determine relative contributions from multiscale (local, regional, global) processes, major source regions (Mexico, Canada, Asia, Africa) and types (natural, anthropogenic) and associated uncertainties (climate decadal oscillations/interannual variations, emissions and model structure errors).
Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Trachsel, Mathias; Telford, Richard J.; Laepple, Thomas

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.
NOAA Data Rescue of Key Solar Databases and Digitization of Historical Solar Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffey, H. E.

2006-08-01

Over a number of years, the staff at NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) has worked to rescue key solar databases by converting them to digital format and making them available via the World Wide Web. NOAA has had several data rescue programs where staff compete for funds to rescue important and critical historical data that are languishing in archives and at risk of being lost due to deteriorating condition, loss of any metadata or descriptive text that describe the databases, lack of interest or funding in maintaining databases, etc. The Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division at NGDC was able to obtain funds to key in some critical historical tabular databases. Recently the NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP) funded a project to digitize historical solar images, producing a large online database of historical daily full disk solar images. The images include the wavelengths Calcium K, Hydrogen Alpha, and white light photos, as well as sunspot drawings and the comprehensive drawings of a multitude of solar phenomena on one daily map (Fraunhofer maps and Wendelstein drawings). Included in the digitization are high resolution solar H-alpha images taken at the Boulder Solar Observatory 1967-1984. The scanned daily images document many phases of solar activity, from decadal variation to rotational variation to daily changes. Smaller versions are available online. Larger versions are available by request. See http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarimages.html. The tabular listings and solar imagery will be discussed.

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega-Rosas, C. I.; Guiot, J.; Peñalba, M. C.; Ortiz-Acosta, M. E.

2008-04-01

New paleovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (1500-2000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28° N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Peñalba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.). An additional modern pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from arid western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95-119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biomization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185-194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555-584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°-6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.
Trend of earlier spring in central Europe continued

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ungersböck, Markus; Jurkovic, Anita; Koch, Elisabeth; Lipa, Wolfgang; Scheifinger, Helfried; Zach-Hermann, Susanne

2013-04-01

Modern phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events in the animal and plant world, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species. The relationship between phenology and climate explains the importance of plant phenology for Climate Change studies. Plants require light, water, oxygen mineral nutrients and suitable temperature to grow. In temperate zones the seasonal life cycle of plants is primarily controlled by temperature and day length. Higher spring air temperatures are resulting in an earlier onset of the phenological spring in temperate and cool climate. On the other hand changes in phenology due to climate change do have impact on the climate system itself. Vegetation is a dynamic factor in the earth - climate system and has positive and negative feedback mechanisms to the biogeochemical and biogeophysical fluxes to the atmosphere Since the mid of the 1980s spring springs earlier in Europe and autumn is shifting back to the end of the year resulting in a longer vegetation period. The advancement of spring can be clearly attributed to temperature increase in the months prior to leaf unfolding and flowering, the timing of autumn is more complex and cannot easily be attributed to one or some few parameters. To demonstrate that the observed advancement of spring since the mid of 1980s is pro-longed in 2001 to 2010 and the delay of fall and the lengthening of the growing season is confirmed in the last decade we picked out several indicator plants from the PEP725 database www.pep725.eu. The PEP725 database collects data from different European network operators and thus offers a unique compilation of phenological observations; the database is regularly updated. The data follow the same classification scheme, the so called BBCH coding system so they can be compared. Lilac Syringa vulgaris, birch Betula pendula, beech Fagus and horse chestnut Aesculus hippocastanum are well represented in the PEP725 database. Flowering of lilac Syringa vulgaris is also used in the US as spring indicator . The flowering and/or leaf unfolding dates of lilac, horse chestnut show a clear advance to an earlier entrance in the last two decades 1991 to 2000 and 2001 to 2010 compared with the reference period 1961 to 1990, being more pronounced in northwestern regions of Central Europe. The growing season defined here as time span between leaf unfolding and leaf coloration of birch and beech has been lengthening up to two weeks in 2001 to 2010 compared to 1961 to 1990 in northeastern parts of Central Europe.
Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachsel, M.; Rehfeld, K.; Telford, R.; Laepple, T.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution.
Last Deglacial Sea Level: A Curated Database of Indicators of Past Sea Levels from Biological and Geomorphological Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbert, F. D.; Williams, F. H.; Fallon, S.; Rohling, E. J.

2017-12-01

The last deglacial was an interval of rapid climate and sea-level change, including the collapse of large continental ice sheets. This database collates carefully assessed sea-level data from peer-reviewed sources for the interval 0 to 25 thousand years ago (ka), from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial conditions. In addition to facilitating site-specific reconstructions of past sea levels, the database provides a suite of data beyond the range of modern/instrumental variability that may help hone future sea-level projections. The database is global in scope, internally consistent, and contains U-series and radiocarbon dated indicators from both biological and geomorpohological archives. We focus on far-field data (i.e., away from the sites of the former continental ice sheets), but some key intermediate (i.e., from the Caribbean) data are also included. All primary fields (i.e., sample location, elevation, age and context) possess quantified uncertainties, which - in conjunction with available metadata - allows the reconstructed sea levels to be interpreted within both their uncertainties and geological context. Consistent treatment of each of the individual records in the database, and incorporation of fully expressed uncertainties, allows datasets to be easily compared. The compilation contains 145 studies from 40 locations (>2,000 data points) and includes all raw information and metadata.
[Serapeo Temple in Pozzuoli, Italy--the unique gauge for the sea (world ocean) level and the Earth surface temperature for over 2100 years].

PubMed

Karnaukhov, V N; Karnaukhov, A V

2010-01-01

The changes in the sea level relative to the position of the Serapeo Temple in Pozzuoly (Italia) over a period of 2100 years are discussed in the context of the well known periods of climate cooling off (Neoglacial, Little Ace Period) and climate warming (Middle Ages Optimum, Modern climate warming). It is noted that the rate of sea level lifting relative to the position of the Serapeo Temple in the modern phase of climate warming, which began the end of the 18th Century is approximately two times higher than in the previous phase of climate warming in the period from the fifth to the mid-tenth century A.D. This indicates that not only the natural cyclic component contributes to the mechanisms of Modern Climate warming but also the anthropogenic component of approximately equivalent power, which results from the waste of CO2 caused by the burning of fossilized fuels.
Building a Rich Community-Contributed Phenology Dataset: Lessons Learned from Winegrapes in California’s Napa Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, K. N.; Cayan, D. R.; Dettinger, M.

2009-12-01

In the wine industry of California’s Napa Valley, there is great community interest in using legacy and modern observations of grapevine phenological stages to track trends in both phenology and climate. Although management such as changing pruning and winemaking preferences can affect phenological records, grapevines can serve as sensitive climate indicators. In collaboration with a local vintners’ organization, we conducted an outreach campaign to solicit contributions of climate and phenological data from winegrowers and winemakers. We received nearly 10,000 phenological records dating from 1940 to the present, including data on budbreak, bloom, véraison (color change), and harvest dates for 68 minor grape varieties (15% of the data) and 10 major varieties (85% of the data). Compiling a unified database from records collected by different individuals in different ways presented a challenge, and we developed several new approaches to using data from our newly compiled records to develop empirical corrections to standardize observations across the dataset. The time series of phenological observations, along with a companion set of regional climate observations, reveal, expectedly, a strong linkage to seasonal temperature and, unexpectedly, a significant association with winter precipitation. The series of harvest timing reports contains influences of both management and climate. We will also present lessons learned on data management, confidentiality, and science-stakeholder partnerships relevant for others interested in conducting community phenological partnerships.
Architecture of a spatial data service system for statistical analysis and visualization of regional climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, A. G.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

2017-11-01

The use of large geospatial datasets in climate change studies requires the development of a set of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) elements, including geoprocessing and cartographical visualization web services. This paper presents the architecture of a geospatial OGC web service system as an integral part of a virtual research environment (VRE) general architecture for statistical processing and visualization of meteorological and climatic data. The architecture is a set of interconnected standalone SDI nodes with corresponding data storage systems. Each node runs a specialized software, such as a geoportal, cartographical web services (WMS/WFS), a metadata catalog, and a MySQL database of technical metadata describing geospatial datasets available for the node. It also contains geospatial data processing services (WPS) based on a modular computing backend realizing statistical processing functionality and, thus, providing analysis of large datasets with the results of visualization and export into files of standard formats (XML, binary, etc.). Some cartographical web services have been developed in a system’s prototype to provide capabilities to work with raster and vector geospatial data based on OGC web services. The distributed architecture presented allows easy addition of new nodes, computing and data storage systems, and provides a solid computational infrastructure for regional climate change studies based on modern Web and GIS technologies.
Annual evaporite deposition at the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis: evidence for solar-lunar climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzi, Vinicio; Gennari, Rocco; Lugli, Stefano; Roveri, Marco; Scafetta, Nicola; Schreiber, B. Charlotte

2013-04-01

We studied two evaporite successions (one halite and the other gypsum) consisting of annual varves in order to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions existing during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC; ≈5.5 Ma), when huge volumes of evaporites accumulated on the floor of the Mediterranean basin. The spectral analyses of these varved evaporitic successions reveal significant peaks in periodicity at around 3-5, 9, 11-13, 20-27 and 50-100 yr. The deposition of varved sedimentary deposits is usually controlled by climate conditions. A comparison with modern precipitation data in the western Mediterranean shows that during the acme of the MSC the climate was not in a permanent evaporitic stage, but in a dynamic state where evaporite deposition was controlled by quasi-periodic climate oscillations similar to modern analogs including Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and decadal to secular lunar- and solar-induced cycles. Particularly, we found a significant quasi-decadal oscillation with a prominent 9-year peak that is also common in modern temperature records and is present in both the contemporary Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. These cyclical patterns are common to both ancient and modern climate records because they can be associated with solar and solar-lunar tidal cycles. During the Messinian, the Mediterranean basin as well as the global ocean, were characterized by somewhat different continent distribution, ocean size, geography, hydrological connections, and ice-sheet volume with respect to the modern configuration. The recognition of modern-style climate oscillations during the Messinian, however, suggests that, although local geographic factors acted as pre-conditioning factors turning the Mediterranean Sea into a giant brine pool, external climate forcing, regulated by solar-lunar cycles and largely independent of those local geographic factors, modulated the deposition of the evaporites.
ANALOG: a program for estimating paleoclimate parameters using the method of modern analogs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweitzer, Peter N.

1994-01-01

Beginning in the 1970s with CLIMAP, paleoclimatologists have been trying to derive quantitative estimates of climatic parameters from the sedimentary record. In general the procedure is to observe the modern distribution of some component of surface sediment that depends on climate, find an empirical relationship between climate and the character of sediments, then extrapolate past climate by studying older sediments in the same way. Initially the empirical relationship between climate and components of the sediment was determined using a multiple regression technique (Imbrie and Kipp, 1971). In these studies sea-floor sediments were examined to determine the percentage of various species of planktonic foraminifera present in them. Supposing that the distribution of foraminiferal assemblages depended strongly on the extremes of annual sea-surface temperature (SST), the foraminiferal assemblages (refined through use of varimax factor analysis) were regressed against the average SST during the coolest and warmest months of the year. The result was a set of transfer functions, equations that could be used to estimate cool and warm SST from the faunal composition of a sediment sample. Assuming that the ecological preference of the species had remained constant throughout the last several hundred thousand years, these transfer functions could be used to estimate SSTs during much of the late Pleistocene. Hutson (1980) and Overpeck, Webb, and Prentice (1985) proposed an alternative approach to estimating paleoclimatic parameters. Their 'method of modern analogs' revolved not around the existence of a few climatically-sensitive faunal assemblages but rather on the expectation that similar climatic regimes should foster similar faunal and floral assemblages. From a large pool of modern samples, those few are selected whose faunal compositions are most similar to a given fossil sample. Paleoclimate estimates are derived using the climatic character of only the most similar modern samples, the modern analogs of the fossil sample. This report describes how to use the program ANALOG to carry out the method of modern analogs. It is assumed that the user has faunal census estimates of one or more fossil samples, and one or more sets of faunal data from modern samples. Furthermore, the user must understand the taxonomic categories represented in the data sets, and be able to recognize taxa that are or may be considered equivalent in the analysis. ANALOG provides the user with flexibility in input data format, output data content, and choice of distance measure, and allows the user to determine which taxa from each modern and fossil data file are compared. Most of the memory required by the program is allocated dynamically, so that, on systems that permit program segments to grow, the program consumes only as many system resources as are needed to accomplish its task.
Modernization and multiscale databases at the U.S. geological survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, J.L.

1992-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun a digital cartographic modernization program. Keys to that program are the creation of a multiscale database, a feature-based file structure that is derived from a spatial data model, and a series of "templates" or rules that specify the relationships between instances of entities in reality and features in the database. The database will initially hold data collected from the USGS standard map products at scales of 1:24,000, 1:100,000, and 1:2,000,000. The spatial data model is called the digital line graph-enhanced model, and the comprehensive rule set consists of collection rules, product generation rules, and conflict resolution rules. This modernization program will affect the USGS mapmaking process because both digital and graphic products will be created from the database. In addition, non-USGS map users will have more flexibility in uses of the databases. These remarks are those of the session discussant made in response to the six papers and the keynote address given in the session. ?? 1992.
The New Zealand Tsunami Database: historical and modern records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Downes, G. L.; Cochran, U. A.; Clark, K.; Scheele, F.

2016-12-01

A database of historical (pre-instrumental) and modern (instrumentally recorded)tsunamis that have impacted or been observed in New Zealand has been compiled andpublished online. New Zealand's tectonic setting, astride an obliquely convergenttectonic boundary on the Pacific Rim, means that it is vulnerable to local, regional andcircum-Pacific tsunamis. Despite New Zealand's comparatively short written historicalrecord of c. 200 years there is a wealth of information about the impact of past tsunamis.The New Zealand Tsunami Database currently has 800+ entries that describe >50 highvaliditytsunamis. Sources of historical information include witness reports recorded indiaries, notes, newspapers, books, and photographs. Information on recent events comesfrom tide gauges and other instrumental recordings such as DART® buoys, and media ofgreater variety, for example, video and online surveys. The New Zealand TsunamiDatabase is an ongoing project with information added as further historical records cometo light. Modern tsunamis are also added to the database once the relevant data for anevent has been collated and edited. This paper briefly overviews the procedures and toolsused in the recording and analysis of New Zealand's historical tsunamis, with emphasison database content.
The BioImage Database Project: organizing multidimensional biological images in an object-relational database.

PubMed

Carazo, J M; Stelzer, E H

1999-01-01

The BioImage Database Project collects and structures multidimensional data sets recorded by various microscopic techniques relevant to modern life sciences. It provides, as precisely as possible, the circumstances in which the sample was prepared and the data were recorded. It grants access to the actual data and maintains links between related data sets. In order to promote the interdisciplinary approach of modern science, it offers a large set of key words, which covers essentially all aspects of microscopy. Nonspecialists can, therefore, access and retrieve significant information recorded and submitted by specialists in other areas. A key issue of the undertaking is to exploit the available technology and to provide a well-defined yet flexible structure for dealing with data. Its pivotal element is, therefore, a modern object relational database that structures the metadata and ameliorates the provision of a complete service. The BioImage database can be accessed through the Internet. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.
Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.

PubMed

deMenocal, P B

2001-04-27

Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.
Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

1996-01-01

The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.
Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

2016-12-01

This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.
[Design and establishment of modern literature database about acupuncture Deqi].

PubMed

Guo, Zheng-rong; Qian, Gui-feng; Pan, Qiu-yin; Wang, Yang; Xin, Si-yuan; Li, Jing; Hao, Jie; Hu, Ni-juan; Zhu, Jiang; Ma, Liang-xiao

2015-02-01

A search on acupuncture Deqi was conducted using four Chinese-language biomedical databases (CNKI, Wan-Fang, VIP and CBM) and PubMed database and using keywords "Deqi" or "needle sensation" "needling feeling" "needle feel" "obtaining qi", etc. Then, a "Modern Literature Database for Acupuncture Deqi" was established by employing Microsoft SQL Server 2005 Express Edition, introducing the contents, data types, information structure and logic constraint of the system table fields. From this Database, detailed inquiries about general information of clinical trials, acupuncturists' experience, ancient medical works, comprehensive literature, etc. can be obtained. The present databank lays a foundation for subsequent evaluation of literature quality about Deqi and data mining of undetected Deqi knowledge.
Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Katherine H.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Strickland, Laura E.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Thompson, Robert S.; Shafer, Sarah L.

2012-01-01

The mutual climatic range (MCR) technique is perhaps the most widely used method for estimating past climatic parameters from fossil assemblages, largely because it can be conducted on a simple list of the taxa present in an assemblage. When applied to plant macrofossil data, this unweighted approach (MCRun) will frequently identify a large range for a given climatic parameter where the species in an assemblage can theoretically live together. To narrow this range, we devised a new weighted approach (MCRwt) that employs information from the modern relations between climatic parameters and plant distributions to lessen the influence of the "tails" of the distributions of the climatic data associated with the taxa in an assemblage. To assess the performance of the MCR approaches, we applied them to a set of modern climatic data and plant distributions on a 25-km grid for North America, and compared observed and estimated climatic values for each grid point. In general, MCRwt was superior to MCRun in providing smaller anomalies, less bias, and better correlations between observed and estimated values. However, by the same measures, the results of Modern Analog Technique (MAT) approaches were superior to MCRwt. Although this might be reason to favor MAT approaches, they are based on assumptions that may not be valid for paleoclimatic reconstructions, including that: 1) the absence of a taxon from a fossil sample is meaningful, 2) plant associations were largely unaffected by past changes in either levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide or in the seasonal distributions of solar radiation, and 3) plant associations of the past are adequately represented on the modern landscape. To illustrate the application of these MCR and MAT approaches to paleoclimatic reconstructions, we applied them to a Pleistocene paleobotanical assemblage from the western United States. From our examinations of the estimates of modern and past climates from vegetation assemblages, we conclude that the MCRun technique provides reliable and unbiased estimates of the ranges of possible climatic conditions that can reasonably be associated with these assemblages. The application of MCRwt and MAT approaches can further constrain these estimates and may provide a systematic way to assess uncertainty. The data sets required for MCR analyses in North America are provided in a parallel publication.
TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prabhat, Mr; Ruebel, Oliver; Byna, Surendra

2012-03-12

We present TECA, a parallel toolkit for detecting extreme events in large climate datasets. Modern climate datasets expose parallelism across a number of dimensions: spatial locations, timesteps and ensemble members. We design TECA to exploit these modes of parallelism and demonstrate a prototype implementation for detecting and tracking three classes of extreme events: tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. We process a modern TB-sized CAM5 simulation dataset with TECA, and demonstrate good runtime performance for the three case studies.
Cadastral Positioning Accuracy Improvement: a Case Study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, N. M.; Omar, A. H.; Omar, K. M.; Abdullah, N. M.; Yatim, M. H. M.

2016-09-01

Cadastral map is a parcel-based information which is specifically designed to define the limitation of boundaries. In Malaysia, the cadastral map is under authority of the Department of Surveying and Mapping Malaysia (DSMM). With the growth of spatial based technology especially Geographical Information System (GIS), DSMM decided to modernize and reform its cadastral legacy datasets by generating an accurate digital based representation of cadastral parcels. These legacy databases usually are derived from paper parcel maps known as certified plan. The cadastral modernization will result in the new cadastral database no longer being based on single and static parcel paper maps, but on a global digital map. Despite the strict process of the cadastral modernization, this reform has raised unexpected queries that remain essential to be addressed. The main focus of this study is to review the issues that have been generated by this transition. The transformed cadastral database should be additionally treated to minimize inherent errors and to fit them to the new satellite based coordinate system with high positional accuracy. This review result will be applied as a foundation for investigation to study the systematic and effectiveness method for Positional Accuracy Improvement (PAI) in cadastral database modernization.
Reconstruction of climate, soil, and vegetation conditions of the Srubnaya cultural epoch on the basis of kurgan studies in the Cis-Ural forest-steppe of the Republic of Bashkortostan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prikhod'ko, V. E.; Rohozin, Ye. P.; Chaplygin, M. S.

2016-09-01

The reconstruction of soil, vegetation, and climatic conditions for the Srubnaya cultural epoch (3660 ± 40 (date wood), 3860 ± 120 (bones date) was performed on the basis of palynological and paleosol studies with radiocarbon dating of bones and wood fragments from two kurgans in the Cis-Ural forest-steppe of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Morphological features and chemical properties of the modern background soils, the soils formed on the surface of burial mounds (kurgans), and the soils buried under them were characterized. According to palynological data, the climate of this territory in the period of construction of these kurgans was more humid than the modern climate. The paleovegetation of the Srubnaya epoch was represented by mesophilic herbaceous steppes with a lower participation of xerophytic species as compared to the modern steppe and by small forest groves composed of birch and pine trees with some admixture of lime trees. The temperature conditions were close to those at present, or somewhat cooler, which is evidenced by the lower content of pollen of the broadleaved trees. The modern background soils and the soils buried under the kurgans are classified as thin light loamy typical calcareous chernozems; they have similar morphologies and physicochemical properties. However, the reconstructed organic matter content in the upper 50 cm of the buried paleosols is higher than that in the modern soils. This attests to more favorable climatic conditions during the Srubnaya epoch and is in agreement with palynological data.

VEMAP phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Timothy G.F. Kittel; Nan. A. Rosenbloom; J.A. Royle; C. Daly; W.P. Gibson; H.H. Fisher; P. Thornton; D.N. Yates; S. Aulenbach; C. Kaufman; R. McKeown; Dominque Bachelet; David S. Schimel

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the...
Exploring the impact of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia.

PubMed

Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu

2014-08-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Continuity of Microblade Technology in the Indian Subcontinent Since 45 ka: Implications for the Dispersal of Modern Humans

PubMed Central

Mishra, Sheila; Chauhan, Naveen; Singhvi, Ashok K.

2013-01-01

We extend the continuity of microblade technology in the Indian Subcontinent to 45 ka, on the basis of optical dating of microblade assemblages from the site of Mehtakheri, (22° 13' 44″ N Lat 76° 01' 36″ E Long) in Madhya Pradesh, India. Microblade technology in the Indian Subcontinent is continuously present from its first appearance until the Iron Age (~3 ka), making its association with modern humans undisputed. It has been suggested that microblade technology in the Indian Subcontinent was developed locally by modern humans after 35 ka. The dates reported here from Mehtakheri show this inference to be untenable and suggest alternatively that this technology arrived in the Indian Subcontinent with the earliest modern humans. It also shows that modern humans in Indian Subcontinent and SE Asia were associated with differing technologies and this calls into question the “southern dispersal” route of modern humans from Africa through India to SE Asia and then to Australia. We suggest that modern humans dispersed from Africa in two stages coinciding with the warmer interglacial conditions of MIS 5 and MIS 3. Competitive interactions between African modern humans and Indian archaics who shared an adaptation to tropical environments differed from that between modern humans and archaics like Neanderthals and Denisovans, who were adapted to temperate environments. Thus, while modern humans expanded into temperate regions during warmer climates, their expansion into tropical regions, like the Indian Subcontinent, in competition with similarly adapted populations, occurred during arid climates. Thus modern humans probably entered the Indian Subcontinent during the arid climate of MIS 4 coinciding with their disappearance from the Middle East and Northern Africa. The out of phase expansion of modern humans into tropical versus temperate regions has been one of the factors affecting the dispersal of modern humans from Africa during the period 200–40 ka. PMID:23840912
Post-glacial Paleo-oceanographic and Paleo-climatic Conditions and Linkages Along the West Coast of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Enkin, R. J.; McKechnie, I.

2006-12-01

Along the west coast of Canada, our continuing studies of annually laminated marine sediments in anoxic fjords illustrate the changing environment as glaciers retreated from this area about 12 ka y BP. New data from mid-coastal British Columbia expands our knowledge of the interplay between climate and ocean dynamics in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and defines the evolution of modern climate conditions as ice receded from the coast, followed by the establishment of modern oceanographic and climatic conditions about 6,000 ky BP. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene record also marks dramatic changes in sea level, climate, coastal oceanographic dynamics and glacial sedimentary source and transport, with implications for the possibility of early human migration routes and glacial refugia. Changes in pre-historical aboriginal settlement sites and food sources also give indications of a dynamic Holocene land and seascape as modern conditions became established. Excellent chronological control is provided by complementary yet independent dating methods including radiocarbon dates on both plants and shells, identification of the Mazama Ash, varve counting and paleomagnetic/paleosecular variation correlations.
Life politics, nature and the state: Giddens' sociological theory and The Politics of Climate Change.

PubMed

Thorpe, Charles; Jacobson, Brynna

2013-03-01

Anthony Giddens' The Politics of Climate Change represents a significant shift in the way in which he addresses ecological politics. In this book, he rejects the relevance of environmentalism and demarcates climate-change policy from life politics. Giddens addresses climate change in the technocratic mode of simple rather than reflexive modernization. However, Giddens' earlier sociological theory provides the basis for a more reflexive understanding of climate change. Climate change instantiates how, in high modernity, the existential contradiction of the human relationship with nature returns in new form, expressed in life politics and entangled with the structural contradictions of the capitalist state. The interlinking of existential and structural contradiction is manifested in the tension between life politics and the capitalist nation-state. This tension is key for understanding the failures so far of policy responses to climate change. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2013.
Climate, critters, and cetaceans: Cenozoic drivers of the evolution of modern whales.

PubMed

Marx, Felix G; Uhen, Mark D

2010-02-19

Modern cetaceans, a poster child of evolution, play an important role in the ocean ecosystem as apex predators and nutrient distributors, as well as evolutionary "stepping stones" for the deep sea biota. Recent discussions on the impact of climate change and marine exploitation on current cetacean populations may benefit from insights into what factors have influenced cetacean diversity in the past. Previous studies suggested that the rise of diatoms as dominant marine primary producers and global temperature change were key factors in the evolution of modern whales. Based on a comprehensive diversity data set, we show that much of observed cetacean paleodiversity can indeed be explained by diatom diversity in conjunction with variations in climate as indicated by oxygen stable isotope records (delta18O).
Examining the reproducibility of stable isotope ratios in the marine bivalve, Astarte borealis, from populations in the White Sea, Russia: implications for biological consequences of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNabb, Justin; Surge, Donna

2015-04-01

Shells of the marine bivalve, Astarte, are uniquely suited to investigate links between environmental/climate change and biological consequences because of their change in size and biogeographic distribution through time. For example, are there corresponding changes in lifespan and biogeographic distribution depending on warm vs. cold climate states? Does warm vs. cold climate state result in longer or shorter lifespans? Early studies of Astarte have documented a decrease in shell size through geologic time. Modern specimens are much smaller than those from the mid Pliocene at similar latitudes. Astarte had a wide latitudinal and cosmopolitan distribution in the western North Atlantic during the Oligocene to Pliocene. During the early Pleistocene, most of the warm-water species became extinct, and today, their biogeographic distribution is mostly restricted to the northern Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. To answer questions linking biological consequences and climate change, we must first decipher ontogenetic changes in shell growth of modern specimens. Preliminary data using isotope sclerochronology identified slowed shell growth from late summer to winter in modern specimens from the White Sea, Russia, possibly triggered by increasing freshwater input and decreasing temperatures. Here, we present new data examining the reproducibility of isotopic time series and season of slowed growth among modern individuals collected at the same time from the same population.
Climate and soil salinity in the deserts of Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankova, E. I.; Konyushkova, M. V.

2013-07-01

A comparative analysis of climatic and soil salinity characteristics of the deserts of Central Asia, including deserts of the Turan Depression, the Gobi Desert, and deserts of the Dzungar and Tarim depressions was performed. The climatic characteristics—the degree of aridity, the degree of continentality, and the amount and regime of precipitation—are different in these deserts. No direct relationships between the areas occupied by the automorphic salt-affected soils and the aridity of the climate are observed in the studied regions. In the automorphic landscapes of Asian deserts, the degree and chemistry of the soil salinization and the distribution of salt-affected soils are controlled by the history of the particular territories rather than by their modern climatic conditions. The presence and properties of the salt-bearing rocks and the eolian migration of salts play the most significant role. The deficit of moisture in the modern climate favors the preservation of salt accumulations in places of their origin. The specific features of the climate, including the regime of precipitation, affect the redistribution of salts in the profiles of automorphic salt-affected soils. An increase in the degree of climatic continentality is accompanied by the decrease in the intensity of weathering and initial accumulation of salts. A different situation is observed in the soils of hydromorphic desert landscapes, in which the degree of salinity of the surface horizons and the area occupied by salt-affected soils are directly influenced by the modern climatic conditions.
[Characteristics of acupoint application for the sub-healthy condition treated with ancient and modern acupuncture based on data mining exploration].

PubMed

Cai, Liyan; Wu, Jie; Ma, Tingting; Yang, Lijie

2015-10-01

The acupoint selection was retrieved from the ancient and modern literature on the treatment of sub-healthy condition with acupuncture. The law of acupoint application was analyzed so as to provide a certain reference to the determination of acupoint prescription in clinical acupuncture. The ancient literature was retrieved from Chinese basic ancient literature database. The modern literature was retrieved from Cochrane Library, Medline, PubMed, Ovid evidence-based medicine database, Chinese biomedical literature database, China journal full-text database, VIP journal full-text database and Wanfang database. The database mining software was adopted to explore the law of acupoint application in treatment of sub-healthy conditions with ancient and modern acupuncture. The acupoint use frequency, compatibility association rule, law for meridian use and the use regularity of specific points were analyzed. In the ancient treatment for sub-healthy condition, the top five commonly used acupoints are Shenmen (HT 7), Zhaohai (KI 6), Taibai (SP 3), Daling (PC 7) and Taixi (KI 3). The most commonly combined points are Zhangmen (LR 13), Taibai (SP 3) and Zhaohai (KI 6). The most commonly used meridians are the bladder meridian of foot-taiyang, kidney meridian of foot-shaoyin and liver meridian of foot-jueyin. The most commonly used specific points are the five-shu points. The most commonly used acupoints are located in the lower limbs. In the modern treatment, the top five commonly used acupoints are Zusanli (ST 36), Sanyinjiao (SP 6), Baihui (GV 20), Shenshu (BL 23) and Guanyuan (CV 4). The most commonly supplemented points are Hegu (LI 4) and Taichong (LR 3). The most commonly used meridians are the bladder meridian of foot-taiyang, the conception vessel and the governor vessel. The most commonly used specific points are the back-shu points. The most commonly used acupoints are located in the lower limbs. After the systematic comprehension of the relevant ancient and modern literature, the most commonly used acupoints are selected along the bladder meridian of foot-taiyang, and the most commonly used specific points are the back-shu points, the five-shu points and the front-mu-points. the acupoints are mostly located in the lower limbs.
Producing a Climate-Quality Database of Global Upper Ocean Profile Temperatures - The IQuOD (International Quality-controlled Ocean Database) Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintall, J.; Cowley, R.; Palmer, M. D.; Domingues, C. M.; Suzuki, T.; Ishii, M.; Boyer, T.; Goni, G. J.; Gouretski, V. V.; Macdonald, A. M.; Thresher, A.; Good, S. A.; Diggs, S. C.

2016-02-01

Historical ocean temperature profile observations provide a critical element for a host of ocean and climate research activities. These include providing initial conditions for seasonal-to-decadal prediction systems, evaluating past variations in sea level and Earth's energy imbalance, ocean state estimation for studying variability and change, and climate model evaluation and development. The International Quality controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) initiative represents a community effort to create the most globally complete temperature profile dataset, with (intelligent) metadata and assigned uncertainties. With an internationally coordinated effort organized by oceanographers, with data and ocean instrumentation expertise, and in close consultation with end users (e.g., climate modelers), the IQuOD initiative will assess and maximize the potential of an irreplaceable collection of ocean temperature observations (tens of millions of profiles collected at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, since 1772) to fulfil the demand for a climate-quality global database that can be used with greater confidence in a vast range of climate change related research and services of societal benefit. Progress towards version 1 of the IQuOD database, ongoing and future work will be presented. More information on IQuOD is available at www.iquod.org.
GlobTherm, a global database on thermal tolerances for aquatic and terrestrial organisms.

PubMed

Bennett, Joanne M; Calosi, Piero; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Martínez, Brezo; Sunday, Jennifer; Algar, Adam C; Araújo, Miguel B; Hawkins, Bradford A; Keith, Sally; Kühn, Ingolf; Rahbek, Carsten; Rodríguez, Laura; Singer, Alexander; Villalobos, Fabricio; Ángel Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio

2018-03-13

How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species' thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.
Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

2013-12-01

Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near-term climate projections point to pronounced changes in fire season length, total burned area, and the frequency of extreme events across North America by 2050.
Reconstructing medieval climate in the tropical North Atlantic with corals from Anegada, British Virgin Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y. Y.

2014-12-01

Resolving the patterns of climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is key for exploring forced versus unforced variability during the last 1000 years. Tropical Atlantic climate is currently not well resolved during the MCA despite it being an important source of heat and moisture to the climate system today. To fill this data gap, we collected cores from Diploria strigosa corals brought onto the low-lying island of Anegada, British Virgin Islands (18.7˚N, 64.3˚S) during an overwash event and use paired analysis of Sr/Ca and δ18O in the skeletal aragonite to explore climate in the tropical Atlantic at the end of the MCA. The three sub-fossil corals used in this analysis overlap temporally and together span the years 1256-1372 C.E. An assessment of three modern corals from the study site indicates that the most robust features of climate reconstructions using Sr/Ca and δ18O in this species are the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability. The modern seasonal temperature range is 2.8 degrees Celsius and the similarity between the modern and sub-fossil coral Sr/Ca indicates a similar range during the MCA. Today seasonal salinity changes locally are driven in large part by the migration of a regional salinity front. The modern corals capture the related large seasonal seawater δ18O change, but the sub-fossil corals indicate stable seawater δ18O throughout the year, supporting the idea that this site remained on one side of the salinity front continuously throughout the year. Inter-annual variability in the region is influenced by the cross-equatorial SST gradient, the North Atlantic Oscillation and ENSO. Gridded instrumental SST from the area surrounding Anegada and coral geochemical records from nearby Puerto Rico demonstrate concentrations of variance in specific frequency bands associated with these phenomena. The sub-fossil coral shows no concentration of variance in the modern ENSO frequency band, consistent with reduced ENSO variability found in central Pacific corals growing at the same time.
Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Daniela N.; Valdes, Paul J.; Holroyd, Patricia A.; Farnsworth, Alexander

2016-01-01

Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation. PMID:27655766
Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations

PubMed Central

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E.; Ungar, Peter S.; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations. PMID:27119336
Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations.

PubMed

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E; Ungar, Peter S; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations.
Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Stoll, D.K.; Foley, K.M.

2011-01-01

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement.In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model.Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance.
Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2002-01-01

One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.
[Constructing climate. From classical climatology to modern climate research].

PubMed

Heymann, Matthias

2009-01-01

Both climate researchers and historians of climate science have conceived climate as a stable and well defined category. This article argues that such a conception is flawed. In the course of the 19th and 20th century the very concept of climate changed considerably. Scientists came up with different definitions and concepts of climate, which implied different understandings, interests, and research approaches. Understanding climate shifted from a timeless, spatial concept at the end of the 19th century to a spaceless, temporal concept at the end of the 20th. Climatologists in the 19th and early 20th centuries considered climate as a set of atmospheric characteristics associated with specific places or regions. In this context, while the weather was subject to change, climate remained largely stable. Of particular interest was the impact of climate on human beings and the environment. In modern climate research at the close of the 20th century, the concept of climate lost its temporal stability. Instead, climate change has become a core feature of the understanding of climate and a focus of research interests. Climate has also lost its immediate association with specific geographical places and become global. The interest is now focused on the impact of human beings on climate. The paper attempts to investigate these conceptual shifts and their origins and impacts in order to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the history of climate research.
Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

PubMed Central

Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; Hörnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

2013-01-01

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future. PMID:24130664

Natural energy and vernacular architecture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fathy, H.

1986-01-01

This volume presents insights into the indigenous architectural forms in hot arid climates. The author presents his extensive research on climate control, particularly in the Middle East, to demonstrate the advantages of many locally available building materials and traditional building methods. He suggests improved uses of natural energy that can bridge the gap between traditional achievements and modern needs. He argues that various architectural forms in these climates have evolved intuitively from scientifically valid concepts. Such forms combine comfort and beauty, social and physical functionality. He discusses that in substituting modern materials, architects sometimes have ignored the environmental context ofmore » traditional architecture. As a result, individuals may find themselves physically and psychologically uncomfortable in modern structures. His approach, informed by a sensitive humanism, demonstrates the ways in which traditional architectural forms can be of use in solving problems facing contemporary architecture, in particular the critical housing situation in the Third World.« less
Deglacial climate variability in central Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Brooks, G.R.; Cronin, T. M.; Edgar, T.; Larson, R.

2007-01-01

Pollen and ostracode evidence from lacustrine sediments underlying modern Tampa Bay, Florida, document frequent and abrupt climatic and hydrological events superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Radiocarbon chronology on well-preserved mollusk shells and pollen residue from core MD02-2579 documents continuous sedimentation in a variety of non-marine habitats in a karst-controlled basin from 20 ka to 11.5 ka. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), much drier and cooler-than-modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae and Carya, with rare Pinus (Pinus pollen increased to 20–40% during the warming of the initial deglaciation (∼ 17.2 ka), reaching near modern abundance (60–80%) during warmer, moister climates of the Bølling/Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka). Within the Bølling/Allerød, centennial-scale dry events corresponding to the Older Dryas and Intra-Allerød Cold Period indicate rapid vegetation response (
Reconstructing Tropical Southwest Pacific Climate Variability and Mean State Changes at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly using Geochemical Proxies from Corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawman, A. E.; Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Thirumalai, K.; WU, C. C.; Shen, C. C.

2017-12-01

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 950-1250 CE) is identified as a period during the last 2 millennia with Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures similar to the present. However, our understanding of tropical climate variability during the MCA is poorly constrained due to a lack of sub-annually resolved proxy records. We investigate seasonal and interannual variability during the MCA using geochemical records developed from two well preserved Porites lutea fossilized corals from the tropical southwest Pacific (Tasmaloum, Vanuatu; 15.6°S, 166.9°E). Absolute U/Th dates of 1127.1 ± 2.7 CE and 1105.1 ± 3.0 CE indicate that the selected fossil corals lived during the MCA. We use paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater (a proxy for salinity). To provide context for the fossil coral records and test whether the mean state and climate variability at Vanuatu during the MCA is similar to the modern climate, our analysis also incorporates two modern coral records from Sabine Bank (15.9°S, 166.0°E) and Malo Channel (15.7°S, 167.2°E), Vanuatu for comparison. We quantify the uncertainty in our modern and fossil coral SST estimates via replication with multiple, overlapping coral records. Both the modern and fossil corals reproduce their respective mean SST value over their common period of overlap, which is 25 years in both cases. Based on over 100 years of monthly Sr/Ca data from each time period, we find that SSTs at Vanuatu during the MCA are 1.3 ± 0.7°C cooler relative to the modern. We also find that the median amplitude of the annual cycle is 0.8 ± 0.3°C larger during the MCA relative to the modern. Multiple data analysis techniques, including the standard deviation and the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles of the annual SST cycle estimates, also show that the MCA has greater annual SST variability relative to the modern. Stable isotope data acquisition is ongoing, and when complete we will have a suite of records of paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements. We will apply similar statistical techniques developed for the Sr/Ca-SST record to also investigate variability in the δ18O of seawater (salinity). Modern salinity variability at Vanuatu arises due to hydrological anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific.
A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wozniak, Matthew C.; Steiner, Allison L.

2017-11-01

We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1) a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2) a plant functional type (PFT) land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the general representation of the pollen phenology over the United States.
Nineteenth Century Long-Term Instrumental Records, Examples From the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, C. J.

2001-12-01

Early instrumental records in the United States, defined as those operating before 1892 which is regarded the period prior to the modern climate record, provide a longer perspective of climatic variability at decadal and interannual timescales. Such reconstructions also provide a means of verification for other proxy data. This paper provides a American perspective of historical climatic research, emphasizing the urgent need to properly evaluate data quality and provide necessary corrections to make them compatible with the modern record. Different fixed observation times, different practices of weather instrument exposures, and statistical methods for calibration are the main issues in applying corrections and conducting proper climatic interpretations. I illustrate several examples on methodologies of this historical climatic research, focusing on the following in the Southeastern United States: daily reconstructed temperature time-series centered on Charleston SC and Natchez MS back to the late eighteenth century, and precipitation frequency reconstructions during the antebellum period for the Gulf Coast and coastal Southeast Atlantic states. Results indicate several prominent extremes unprecedented as compared to the modern record, such as the widespread warm winter of 1827-28, and the severe cold winters of 1856 and 1857. The reconstructions also yield important information concerning responses to past ENSO events, the PNA, NAO, and the PDO, particularly when compared with instrumental data from other regions. A high potential also exists for applying the climate reconstructions to assess historical climatic impacts on society in the Southeast, such as to understand climatic linkages to famous case studies of Yellow Fever epidemics and severe drought.
Potential climatic mechanisms associated with the mega drought at 4200 cal yr BP: linking proxy data with modern climate analogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, V.; Shinker, J. J.

2017-12-01

Roughly 4200 years ago, a 150-year long mega drought occurred in the central Rocky Mountains, as indicated by pollen evidence from lake sediments from Long Lake, south-eastern Wyoming. However, pollen evidence does not record the climate mechanisms that caused the drought; they only provide evidence that the drought occurred. A modern climate analogue technique using North American Regional Reanalysis data was applied to the sedimentary data in order to identify possible synoptic and dynamic patterns that may have caused the mega drought at 4200 cal yr BP. Our results suggest warm and dry conditions were a result of anomalously higher-than-normal geopotential heights that were centred over the Great Plains beginning in the spring and persisting through the fall. Drought conditions during the growing seasons was the result of the anomalous high-pressure ridge, which suppressed moisture transport via the low level jet from the Gulf of Mexico, as well as brought in dry continental air from in the interior region of North America. The conditions associated with modern analogues offer a potential climate mechanism that caused the mega drought 4200 years ago, and likely led to the changes in vegetation composition as evidenced by the pollen record from Long Lake, Wyoming.
International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

2015-01-01

Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…
What Is That Thing Called Climate Change? an Investigation into the Understanding of Climate Change by Seventh-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özdem, Yasemin; Dal, Burçkin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu; Alper, Umut

2014-01-01

This paper presents findings from research on students' general environmental concerns, experiences, beliefs, attitudes, worldviews, values, and actions relating to climate change. Data was gathered from a sample of 646 seventh-grade students. The findings indicate that students identify climate change as a consequence of modern life. They…
Quantitative estimation of bioclimatic parameters from presence/absence vegetation data in North America by the modern analog technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Anderson, K.H.; Bartlein, P.J.

2008-01-01

The method of modern analogs is widely used to obtain estimates of past climatic conditions from paleobiological assemblages, and despite its frequent use, this method involved so-far untested assumptions. We applied four analog approaches to a continental-scale set of bioclimatic and plant-distribution presence/absence data for North America to assess how well this method works under near-optimal modern conditions. For each point on the grid, we calculated the similarity between its vegetation assemblage and those of all other points on the grid (excluding nearby points). The climate of the points with the most similar vegetation was used to estimate the climate at the target grid point. Estimates based the use of the Jaccard similarity coefficient had smaller errors than those based on the use of a new similarity coefficient, although the latter may be more robust because it does not assume that the "fossil" assemblage is complete. The results of these analyses indicate that presence/absence vegetation assemblages provide a valid basis for estimating bioclimates on the continental scale. However, the accuracy of the estimates is strongly tied to the number of species in the target assemblage, and the analog method is necessarily constrained to produce estimates that fall within the range of observed values. We applied the four modern analog approaches and the mutual overlap (or "mutual climatic range") method to estimate bioclimatic conditions represented by the plant macrofossil assemblage from a packrat midden of Last Glacial Maximum age from southern Nevada. In general, the estimation approaches produced similar results in regard to moisture conditions, but there was a greater range of estimates for growing-degree days. Despite its limitations, the modern analog technique can provide paleoclimatic reconstructions that serve as the starting point to the interpretation of past climatic conditions.
Social and economic impacts of climate.

PubMed

Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

2016-09-09

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The Mars Climate Database (MCD version 5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millour, E.; Forget, F.; Spiga, A.; Navarro, T.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Montabone, L.; Pottier, A.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P. L.; Huot, J.-P.; Desjean, M.-C.; MCD/GCM development Team

2015-10-01

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) is a database of meteorological fields derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere and validated using available observational data. The MCD includes complementary post-processing schemes such as high spatial resolution interpolation of environmental data and means of reconstructing the variability thereof. We have just completed (March 2015) the generation of a new version of the MCD, MCD version 5.2
The bias and signal attenuation present in conventional pollen-based climate reconstructions as assessed by early climate data from Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

St Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Cumming, Brian F; Sauchyn, David J; Smol, John P

2015-01-01

The inference of past temperatures from a sedimentary pollen record depends upon the stationarity of the pollen-climate relationship. However, humans have altered vegetation independent of changes to climate, and consequently modern pollen deposition is a product of landscape disturbance and climate, which is different from the dominance of climate-derived processes in the past. This problem could cause serious signal distortion in pollen-based reconstructions. In the north-central United States, direct human impacts have strongly altered the modern vegetation and hence the pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-19th century. Using instrumental temperature data from the early 1800 s from Fort Snelling (Minnesota), we assessed the signal distortion and bias introduced by using the conventional method of inferring temperature from pollen assemblages in comparison to a calibration set from pre-settlement pollen assemblages and the earliest instrumental climate data. The early post-settlement calibration set provides more accurate reconstructions of the 19th century instrumental record, with less bias, than the modern set does. When both modern and pre-industrial calibration sets are used to reconstruct past temperatures since AD 1116 from pollen counts from a varve-dated record from Lake Mina, Minnesota, the conventional inference method produces significant low-frequency (centennial-scale) signal attenuation and positive bias of 0.8-1.7 °C, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age temperature and likely an underestimation of the extent and rate of anthropogenic warming in this region. However, high-frequency (annual-scale) signal attenuation exists with both methods. Hence, we conclude that any past pollen spectra from before Euro-American settlement in this region should be interpreted using a pre-Euro-American settlement pollen set, paired to the earliest instrumental climate records. It remains to be explored how widespread this problem is when conventional pollen-based inference methods are used, and consequently how seriously regional manifestations of global warming have been underestimated with traditional pollen-based techniques.
Christian Higher Education in a Changing Context: Shifting from Pillars to Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broer, Nico A.; Hoogland, Jan; van der Stoep, Jan

2017-01-01

The process of global modernization has reached a new phase. In many parts of the world, societies have become so complex that the logic that characterized first modernity no longer works. Simultaneously, societies are confronted by huge and complex side effects of modern rationality, such as climate change, migration influx, global inequality,…
LTPP Climate Tool [Tech Brief

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

This Product Brief describes the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) Climate Tool (intended for use by infrastructure engineers) that provides convenient access to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective An...
Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards.

PubMed

Lowe, John; Barton, Nick; Blockley, Simon; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Cullen, Victoria L; Davies, William; Gamble, Clive; Grant, Katharine; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert; Lane, Christine S; Lee, Sharen; Lewis, Mark; MacLeod, Alison; Menzies, Martin; Müller, Wolfgang; Pollard, Mark; Price, Catherine; Roberts, Andrew P; Rohling, Eelco J; Satow, Chris; Smith, Victoria C; Stringer, Chris B; Tomlinson, Emma L; White, Dustin; Albert, Paul; Arienzo, Ilenia; Barker, Graeme; Boric, Dusan; Carandente, Antonio; Civetta, Lucia; Ferrier, Catherine; Guadelli, Jean-Luc; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Koumouzelis, Margarita; Müller, Ulrich C; Orsi, Giovanni; Pross, Jörg; Rosi, Mauro; Shalamanov-Korobar, Ljiljiana; Sirakov, Nikolay; Tzedakis, Polychronis C

2012-08-21

Marked changes in human dispersal and development during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition have been attributed to massive volcanic eruption and/or severe climatic deterioration. We test this concept using records of volcanic ash layers of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption dated to ca. 40,000 y ago (40 ka B.P.). The distribution of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been enhanced by the discovery of cryptotephra deposits (volcanic ash layers that are not visible to the naked eye) in archaeological cave sequences. They enable us to synchronize archaeological and paleoclimatic records through the period of transition from Neanderthal to the earliest anatomically modern human populations in Europe. Our results confirm that the combined effects of a major volcanic eruption and severe climatic cooling failed to have lasting impacts on Neanderthals or early modern humans in Europe. We infer that modern humans proved a greater competitive threat to indigenous populations than natural disasters.
Making the climate part of the human world: Why addressing beliefs and biases is necessary part of effective climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2009-12-01

Efforts to raise public awareness and understanding of the social, cultural and economic consequences of climate change often encounter skepticism. The primary causes of this skepticism, whether in the form of a mild rejection of proposed policy responses or an outright rejection of the basic scientific findings, is often cited to be the poor framing of issues by the scientific community, the quality of science education or public science literacy, disinformation campaigns by representatives of the coal and gas industry, individual resistance to behavioral change, and the hyperactive nature of the modern information culture. However, the root cause may be that the weather and climate, and by association climate change, is viewed as independent of the sphere of human influence in ancient and modern societies. In this presentation, I will outline how long-standing human beliefs in the separation between the earth and the sky and the modern framing of climate change as an “environmental” issue are limiting efforts to education the public about the causes, effects and possible response to climate change. First, sociological research in the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) finds strong evidence that beliefs in divine control of the weather and climate limit public acceptance of human-induced climate change. Second, media analysis and polling data from North America supports the role of belief and provides further evidence that climate change is viewed as a threat to an “other” labeled “the environment”, rather than a threat to people or society. The consequences of these mental models of the climate can be an outright reject of scientific theory related to climate change, a milder distrust of climate change predictions, a lack of urgency about mitigation, and an underestimate of the effort required to adapt to climate change. In order to be effective, public education about climate change needs to directly address the two, critical beliefs held by the majority of the audience. Proposed solutions include re-casting climate change as a broad societal concern, thus rejecting characterization of climate change as “environmental issue”, and clearly expressing to the audience the historical reasons why climate change may be hard to “believe”
Entrepreneurship Development and Business Climate of Kazakhstan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kydyrova, Zhamilya Sh.; Satymbekova, Katira B.; Kerimbek, Galymzhan E.; Imanbayev?, Zauresh O.; Saparbayev?, Saule S.; Nurgalieva, Ainash A.; Ilyas, Akylbek A.; Zhalbinova, Saule K.; Jrauovai, Kuralay S.; Kanafina, Ainura T.

2016-01-01

The goal is to explore the state of development of entrepreneurship and business climate for the formation of a clear mechanism of state support for small and average business in conditions of economy modernization. A special science-based methodology was developed to monitor the condition of entrepreneurship development and business climate in…
Climatic implications of reconstructed early - Mid Pliocene equilibrium-line altitudes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krusic, A.G.; Prentice, M.L.; Licciardi, J.M.

2009-01-01

Early-mid Pliocene moraines in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are more extensive than the present alpine glaciers in this region, indicating substantial climatic differences between the early-mid Pliocene and the present. To quantify this difference in the glacier-climate regime, we estimated the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) change since the early-mid Pliocene by calculating the modern ELA and reconstructing the ELAs of four alpine glaciers in Wright and Taylor Valleys at their early-mid Pliocene maxima. The area-altitude balance ratio method was used on modern and reconstructed early-mid Pliocene hypsometry. In Wright and Victoria Valleys, mass-balance data identify present-day ELAs of 800-1600 m a.s.l. and an average balance ratio of 1.1. The estimated ELAs of the much larger early-mid Pliocene glaciers in Wright and Taylor Valleys range from 600 to 950 ?? 170 m a.s.l., and thus are 250-600 ??170 m lower than modern ELAs in these valleys. The depressed ELAs during the early-mid-Pliocene most likely indicate a wetter and therefore warmer climate in the Dry Valleys during this period than previous studies have recognized.
Climate deteriorations and Neanderthal demise in interior Iberia.

PubMed

Wolf, D; Kolb, T; Alcaraz-Castaño, M; Heinrich, S; Baumgart, P; Calvo, R; Sánchez, J; Ryborz, K; Schäfer, I; Bliedtner, M; Zech, R; Zöller, L; Faust, D

2018-05-04

Time and circumstances for the disappearance of Neanderthals and its relationship with the advent of Modern Humans are not yet sufficiently resolved, especially in case of the Iberian Peninsula. Reconstructing palaeoenvironmental conditions during the last glacial period is crucial to clarifying whether climate deteriorations or competition and contacts with Modern Humans played the pivotal role in driving Neanderthals to extinction. A high-resolution loess record from the Upper Tagus Basin in central Spain demonstrates that the Neanderthal abandonment of inner Iberian territories 42 kyr ago coincided with the evolvement of hostile environmental conditions, while archaeological evidence testifies that this desertion took place regardless of modern humans' activities. According to stratigraphic findings and stable isotope analyses, this period corresponded to the driest environmental conditions of the last glacial apart from an even drier period linked to Heinrich Stadial 3. Our results show that during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4 and 2 climate deteriorations in interior Iberia temporally coincided with northern hemisphere cold periods (Heinrich stadials). Solely during the middle MIS 3, in a period surrounding 42 kyr ago, this relation seems not straightforward, which may demonstrate the complexity of terrestrial climate conditions during glacial periods.
The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

PubMed

Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

2016-07-20

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

Palaeo-precipitation is a major determinant of palm species richness patterns across Madagascar: a tropical biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Baker, William J.; Dransfield, John; Moat, Justin; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

The distribution of rainforest in many regions across the Earth was strongly affected by Pleistocene ice ages. However, the extent to which these dynamics are still important for modern-day biodiversity patterns within tropical biodiversity hotspots has not been assessed. We employ a comprehensive dataset of Madagascan palms (Arecaceae) and climate reconstructions from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) to assess the relative role of modern environment and LGM climate in explaining geographical species richness patterns in this major tropical biodiversity hotspot. We found that palaeoclimate exerted a strong influence on palm species richness patterns, with richness peaking in areas with higher LGM precipitation relative to present-day even after controlling for modern environment, in particular in northeastern Madagascar, consistent with the persistence of tropical rainforest during the LGM primarily in this region. Our results provide evidence that diversity patterns in the World's most biodiverse regions may be shaped by long-term climate history as well as contemporary environment. PMID:23427173
Modern Quaternary plant lineages promote diversity through facilitation of ancient Tertiary lineages

PubMed Central

Valiente-Banuet, Alfonso; Rumebe, Adolfo Vital; Verdú, Miguel; Callaway, Ragan M.

2006-01-01

One of the most important floristic sorting periods to affect modern plant communities occurred during the shift from the wet Tertiary period to the unusually dry Quaternary, when most global deserts developed. During this time, a wave of new plant species emerged, presumably in response to the new climate. Interestingly, most Tertiary species that have been tracked through the fossil record did not disappear but remained relatively abundant despite the development of a much more unfavorable climate for species adapted to moist conditions. Here we find, by integrating paleobotanical, ecological, and phylogenetic analyses, that a large number of ancient Tertiary species in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems appear to have been preserved by the facilitative or “nurse” effects of modern Quaternary species. Our results indicate that these interdependent relationships among plants have played a central role in the preservation of the global biodiversity and provided a mechanism for stabilizing selection and the conservation of ecological traits over evolutionary time scales. PMID:17068126
A climatic and taxonomic comparison between leaf litter and standing vegetation from a Florida swamp woodland

Treesearch

David L. Dilcher; Elizabeth A. Kowalski; Michael C. Wiemann; Luis Felipe Hinojosa; Terry A. Lott

2009-01-01

One method to determine past climate has been the use of leaf morphological characteristics of fossil leaves quantified using modern climate and canopy leaf characteristics. Fossil assemblages are composed of abscised leaves, and climate may be more accurately determined by using leaves from leaf litter instead of the canopy. To better understand whether taphonomic...
Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), northern Rockies, U.S.A.

PubMed

Heyerdahl, Emily K; Morgan, Penelope; Riser, James P

2008-03-01

Our objective was to infer the climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire years in dry forests of the U.S. northern Rockies in Idaho and western Montana. During our analysis period (1650-1900), we reconstructed fires from 9245 fire scars on 576 trees (mostly ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) at 21 sites and compared them to existing tree-ring reconstructions of climate (temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) and large-scale climate patterns that affect modern spring climate in this region (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]). We identified 32 regional-fire years as those with five or more sites with fire. Fires were remarkably widespread during such years, including one year (1748) in which fires were recorded at 10 sites across what are today seven national forests plus one site on state land. During regional-fire years, spring-summers were significantly warm and summers were significantly warm-dry whereas the opposite conditions prevailed during the 99 years when no fires were recorded at any of our sites (no-fire years). Climate in prior years was not significantly associated with regional- or no-fire years. Years when fire was recorded at only a few of our sites occurred under a broad range of climate conditions, highlighting the fact that the regional climate drivers of fire are most evident when fires are synchronized across a large area. No-fire years tended to occur during La Niña years, which tend to have anomalously deep snowpacks in this region. However, ENSO was not a significant driver of regional-fire years, consistent with the greater influence of La Niña than El Niño conditions on the spring climate of this region. PDO was not a significant driver of past fire, despite being a strong driver of modern spring climate and modern regional-fire years in the northern Rockies.
Late Cenozoic onset of the latitudinal diversity gradient of North American mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcot, Jonathan D.; Fox, David L.; Niebuhr, Spencer R.

2016-06-01

The decline of species richness from equator to pole, or latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), is nearly universal among clades of living organisms, yet whether it was such a pervasive pattern in the geologic past remains uncertain. Here, we calculate the strength of the LDG for terrestrial mammals in North America over the past 65 My, using 27,903 fossil occurrences of Cenozoic terrestrial mammals from western North America downloaded from the Paleobiology Database. Accounting for temporal and spatial variation in sampling, the LDG was substantially weaker than it is today for most of the Cenozoic and the robust modern LDG of North American mammals evolved only over the last 4 My. The strength of the LDG correlates negatively with global temperature, suggesting a role of global climate patterns in the establishment and maintenance of the LDG for North American mammals.
Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

2013-04-01

In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends to decrease over most of NEB in the short but this trend is reverted toward the end of the century in both scenarios with a significant increase in the duration of the dry season over Northwestern and Eastern NEB (exceeding 50 days over certain areas), whereas projected CWD changes are smaller. Rx5 shows a general increasing trend especially in the long term period,under RCP8.5.
The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

Climate skeptics The climate change-conflict nexus has its fair share of skeptics. Many observers remain unconvinced that climate change, whether due...implications of climate change remain specula- tive. In addition, they observe that none of the consequences forecast in the authoritative reports of the...modern practices and relocate to the few remaining habitable regions at the extreme north- ern and southern hemispheres.33 Essam El Hinnawi first
The environmental context for the origins of modern human diversity: a synthesis of regional variability in African climate 150,000-30,000 years ago.

PubMed

Blome, Margaret Whiting; Cohen, Andrew S; Tryon, Christian A; Brooks, Alison S; Russell, Joellen

2012-05-01

We synthesize African paleoclimate from 150 to 30 ka (thousand years ago) using 85 diverse datasets at a regional scale, testing for coherence with North Atlantic glacial/interglacial phases and northern and southern hemisphere insolation cycles. Two major determinants of circum-African climate variability over this time period are supported by principal components analysis: North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations and local insolation maxima. North Atlantic SSTs correlated with the variability found in most circum-African SST records, whereas the variability of the majority of terrestrial temperature and precipitation records is explained by local insolation maxima, particularly at times when solar radiation was intense and highly variable (e.g., 150-75 ka). We demonstrate that climates varied with latitude, such that periods of relatively increased aridity or humidity were asynchronous across the northern, eastern, tropical and southern portions of Africa. Comparisons of the archaeological, fossil, or genetic records with generalized patterns of environmental change based solely on northern hemisphere glacial/interglacial cycles are therefore imprecise. We compare our refined climatic framework to a database of 64 radiometrically-dated paleoanthropological sites to test hypotheses of demographic response to climatic change among African hominin populations during the 150-30 ka interval. We argue that at a continental scale, population and climate changes were asynchronous and likely occurred under different regimes of climate forcing, creating alternating opportunities for migration into adjacent regions. Our results suggest little relation between large scale demographic and climate change in southern Africa during this time span, but strongly support the hypothesis of hominin occupation of the Sahara during discrete humid intervals ~135-115 ka and 105-75 ka. Hominin populations in equatorial and eastern Africa may have been buffered from the extremes of climate change by locally steep altitudinal and rainfall gradients and the complex and variable effects of increased aridity on human habitat suitability in the tropics. Our data are consistent with hominin migrations out of Africa through varying exit points from ~140-80 ka. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Downscaling climate information for local disease mapping.

PubMed

Bernardi, M; Gommes, R; Grieser, J

2006-06-01

The study of the impacts of climate on human health requires the interdisciplinary efforts of health professionals, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists to analyze the relationships among physical, biological, ecological, and social systems. As the disease dynamics respond to variations in regional and local climate, climate variability affects every region of the world and the diseases are not necessarily limited to specific regions, so that vectors may become endemic in other regions. Climate data at local level are thus essential to evaluate the dynamics of vector-borne disease through health-climate models and most of the times the climatological databases are not adequate. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by statistical downscaling using historical observations but the method is limited by the availability of historical data at local level. Since the 90s', the statistical interpolation of climate data has been an important priority of the Agrometeorology Group of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), as they are required for agricultural planning and operational activities at the local level. Since 1995, date of the first FAO spatial interpolation software for climate data, more advanced applications have been developed such as SEDI (Satellite Enhanced Data Interpolation) for the downscaling of climate data, LOCCLIM (Local Climate Estimator) and the NEW_LOCCLIM in collaboration with the Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) to estimate climatic conditions at locations for which no observations are available. In parallel, an important effort has been made to improve the FAO climate database including at present more than 30,000 stations worldwide and expanding the database from developing countries coverage to global coverage.
Salinity trends in the Ebro River (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Gonzalez, M.° Angeles; Isidoro, Daniel; Quilez, Dolores

2016-04-01

In the Ebro River Basin (Spain), the increase in water diversion for irrigation (following the increase in irrigated area) and the recovery of natural vegetation in the upper reaches, along with climate change have induced changes in the river flow and its associated salt loads. This study was supported by the Ebro River Basin Administration (CHE) and aimed to establish the trends in the salt concentrations and loads of the Ebro River at Tortosa (no 027, the extreme downstream gauging station). The CHE databases from 1972-73 to 2011-12, including mean monthly flows (Q) and concentration readings (electrical conductivity converted to total dissolved solids -TDS- by regression) from monthly grab samples, have been used. The trends were established by (i) harmonic regression analysis; (ii) linear regression by month; and (iii) the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Additionally, (iv) the regressions of TDS on Q in the current and previous months were established, allowing for analyzing separately the trends in TDS linked to- (TDSq) and independent of- (TDSaj) the observed changes in flow. In all cases, the trends were analyzed for different periods within the full span 1973-2012 (1973 to 2012, 1981 to 2012, 1990-2012 and 2001-2012), trying to account for periods with sensibly similar patterns of land use change. An increase in TDS was found for all the periods analyzed that was lower as shorter periods were used, suggesting that lower salinity changes might be taking place in the last years, possibly due to the reduction in the rate of irrigation development and to the on-going irrigation modernization process. The higher seasonal TDS increases were found in autumn and winter months and the increase in TDS was linked both to intrinsic changes in salinity (TDSaj) and to the observed decrease in flow (TDSq). On the other hand, the salt loads decreased, especially in autumn, as a result of the observed flow decrease. These results are based on the observed evolution of flows and salinity in 1973-2012 and can only be extrapolated into the future if the drivers of this evolution (climate and land use changes) remain unchanged in the following years, what is uncertain. A more comprehensive methodology to estimate the effects of irrigation on water salinity has been developed based on a mass balance approach. Using actual data on volumes and concentrations of return flows observed in the basin (dependent on the actual salinity of soils and waters and the irrigation systems, among other factors), the return flows of the irrigated areas are aggregated to match the actual flows and loads observed in the Ebro River. Once this balance is satisfied, the effect of new irrigated areas, drainage water reuse, irrigation modernization, or climate change would be incorporated to the balance yielding salinity forecasts based on planned irrigation developments and modernization or climate change predictions. A priori, irrigation modernization would produce lower, more concentrated volumes of return flows with lower salt loads that would result in lower TDS concentrations in the Ebro River.
Northern tropical Atlantic climate since late Medieval times from Northern Caribbean coral geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions of different global climate modes over the last 1000 years provide the basis for testing the relative roles of forced and unforced variability climate system, which can help us improve projections of future climate change. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has been characterized by a combination of persistent La Niña-like conditions, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), and increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The northern tropical Atlantic is sensitive to each of these climate patterns, but not all of them have the same regional fingerprint in the modern northern tropical Atlantic. The relative influence of different processes related to these climate patterns can help us better understand regional responses to climate change. The regional response of the northern tropical Atlantic is important because the tropical Atlantic Ocean is a large source of heat and moisture to the global climate system that can feedback onto global climate patterns. This study presents new coral Sr/Ca and δ18O data from the northern tropical Atlantic (Anegada, British Virgin Islands). Comparison of the sub-fossil corals that grew during the 13th and 14th Centuries with modern coral geochemical data from this site indicates relatively cooler mean conditions with a decrease in the oxygen isotopic composition of the water consistent with lower salinities. Similar average annual cycles between modern and sub-fossil Sr/Ca indicate no change in seasonal temperature range, but a difference in the relative phasing of the δ18O seasonal cycles indicates that the fresher mean conditions may be due to a more northerly position of the regional salinity front. This localized response is consistent with some, but not all of the expected regional responses to a La Niña-like state, a +NAO state, and increased AMOC. Understanding these differences can provide insight into the relative importance of advection versus surface fluxes for heat and salt balances at the study site. Ultimately the data support the existing framework for understanding climate during the MCA and demonstrate the importance of regional processes in understanding historic and future climate patterns.
Distribution of Cenozoic plant relicts in China explained by drought in dry season.

PubMed

Huang, Yongjiang; Jacques, Frédéric M B; Su, Tao; Ferguson, David K; Tang, Hui; Chen, Wenyun; Zhou, Zhekun

2015-09-15

Cenozoic plant relicts are those groups that were once widespread in the Northern Hemisphere but are now restricted to some small isolated areas as a result of drastic climatic changes. They are good proxies to study how plants respond to climatic changes since their modern climatic requirements are known. Herein we look at the modern distribution of 65 palaeoendemic genera in China and compare it with the Chinese climatic pattern, in order to find a link between the plant distribution and climate. Central China and Taiwan Island are shown to be diversity centres of Cenozoic relict genera, consistent with the fact that these two regions have a shorter dry season with comparatively humid autumn and spring in China. Species distribution models indicate that the precipitation parameters are the most important variables to explain the distribution of relict genera. The Cenozoic wide-scale distribution of relict plants in the Northern Hemisphere is therefore considered to be linked to the widespread humid climate at that time, and the subsequent contraction of their distributional ranges was probably caused by the drying trend along with global cooling.
Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke D.

2011-01-01

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.
Distribution of Cenozoic plant relicts in China explained by drought in dry season

PubMed Central

Huang, Yongjiang; Jacques, Frédéric M. B.; Su, Tao; Ferguson, David K.; Tang, Hui; Chen, Wenyun; Zhou, Zhekun

2015-01-01

Cenozoic plant relicts are those groups that were once widespread in the Northern Hemisphere but are now restricted to some small isolated areas as a result of drastic climatic changes. They are good proxies to study how plants respond to climatic changes since their modern climatic requirements are known. Herein we look at the modern distribution of 65 palaeoendemic genera in China and compare it with the Chinese climatic pattern, in order to find a link between the plant distribution and climate. Central China and Taiwan Island are shown to be diversity centres of Cenozoic relict genera, consistent with the fact that these two regions have a shorter dry season with comparatively humid autumn and spring in China. Species distribution models indicate that the precipitation parameters are the most important variables to explain the distribution of relict genera. The Cenozoic wide-scale distribution of relict plants in the Northern Hemisphere is therefore considered to be linked to the widespread humid climate at that time, and the subsequent contraction of their distributional ranges was probably caused by the drying trend along with global cooling. PMID:26369980
Global temperature patterns 6000 years ago. Progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, T. III

The overall goal is to illustrate the climatic patterns of 5000 to 7000 years ago over as wide an area of the northern hemisphere as possible. Mapping of the patterns in selected climatic variables at 5000 to 7000 years ago that can be reconstructed from pollen and marine-plankton data is planned. Multivariate statistical methods permit using the modern distribution of these data in order to transform their fossil remains into climate estimates of past times. Given these goals and methods, research during the first eight months focused on assembling the available modern and fossil data from each of the mainmore » areas under study. Two workshop conferences were held to help organize the joint work.« less
Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change

PubMed Central

Ziegler, Martin; Simon, Margit H.; Hall, Ian R.; Barker, Stephen; Stringer, Chris; Zahn, Rainer

2013-01-01

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia. PMID:23695699
Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change.

PubMed

Ziegler, Martin; Simon, Margit H; Hall, Ian R; Barker, Stephen; Stringer, Chris; Zahn, Rainer

2013-01-01

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.
Pollen-based temperature and precipitation inferences for the montane forest of Mt. Kilimanjaro during the last Glacial and the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schüler, L.; Hemp, A.; Behling, H.

2014-01-01

The relationship between modern pollen-rain taxa and measured climate variables was explored along the elevational gradient of the southern slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Pollen assemblages in 28 pollen traps positioned on 14 montane forest vegetation plots were identified and their relationship with climate variables was examined using multivariate statistical methods. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that the mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and minimum temperature each account for significant fractions of the variation in pollen taxa. A training set of 107 modern pollen taxa was used to derive temperature and precipitation transfer functions based on pollen subsets using weighted-averaging-partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) techniques. The transfer functions were then applied to a fossil pollen record from the montane forest of Mt. Kilimanjaro and the climate parameter estimates for the Late Glacial and the Holocene on Mt. Kilimanjaro were inferred. Our results present the first quantitatively reconstructed temperature and precipitation estimates for Mt Kilimanjaro and give highly interesting insights into the past 45 000 yr of climate dynamics in tropical East Africa. The climate reconstructions are consistent with the interpretation of pollen data in terms of vegetation and climate history of afro-montane forest in East Africa. Minimum temperatures above the frostline as well as increased precipitation turn out to be crucial for the development and expansion of montane forest during the Holocene. In contrast, consistently low minimum temperatures as well as about 25% drier climate conditions prevailed during the pre LGM, which kept the montane vegetation composition in a stable state. In prospective studies, the quantitative climate reconstruction will be improved by additional modern pollen rain data, especially from lower elevations with submontane dry forests and colline savanna vegetation in order to extend the reference climate gradient.
Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

2013-03-01

The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Impact of climate changes on population vital activities in Russia in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolotokrylin, A. N.; Vinogradova, V. V.; Titkova, T. B.; Cherenkova, E. A.; Bokuchava, D. D.; Sokolov, I. A.; Vinogradov, A. V.; Babina, E. D.

2018-01-01

The study substantiates the approach to the assessment of impact of climate change on vital activities of population in Russia in the face of increasing climate extremes. The obtained results reveal the occurrence of the essential climate extreme events over the period 1991-2013 in Russia that are vital for population activities. Annual amounts of interdiurnal temperature differences and pressure were calculated. Propagation of heat and cold waves, trends and frequencies of daily precipitation extremes were evaluated. The map “Zoning the territory of the Russian Federation by natural living conditions of the population” adapted for modern climate (2001-2010), illustrates the climate changes in the early 21st century. The modern warming of climate has led to a significant easing of discomfort in the territory of Russia. The steady decline of the absolutely unfavorable zone resulted from the expansion of less unfavorable areas is observed, especially in the Northern and Arctic regions. In the south the boundary of unfavorable territories shifts toward the north. It results in the expansion of the conditionally unfavorable area in West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. In European Russia the favorable area expands and shifts far to the northern regions.

Does Climate Care about Land?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, E.; Lague, M. M.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Everyone knows that plants are influenced by the climate they live in. However, the reverse is also true: plants can influence climate both locally and globally by changing atmospheric circulation. Uncovering the role that plants play in climate has been challenging—the interactions are complex and vary greatly in different regions of the world. We lack a systematic understanding of the role of vegetation in the climate system. Using a new simplified land model coupled to a modern Earth System Model (ESM), we are able to separate the individual influences of the land system in the context of modern ESMs. For example, with our model we are able to test how the capacity of the land to hold water influences the atmosphere. If less water is able to evaporate, this could lead to substantial warming, and could even influence clouds. Understanding specifically where and how the atmosphere is influenced by the land surface improves our understanding of how future changes in the land surface will in turn feedback on climate, and how that will impact people. This improved understanding also advances our knowledge of the key role biology plays in driving the global climate system.
Technology and the Modern Library.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boss, Richard W.

1984-01-01

Overview of the impact of information technology on libraries highlights turnkey vendors, bibliographic utilities, commercial suppliers of records, state and regional networks, computer-to-computer linkages, remote database searching, terminals and microcomputers, building local databases, delivery of information, digital telefacsimile,…
A web-based, relational database for studying glaciers in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigrelli, G.; Chiarle, M.; Nuzzi, A.; Perotti, L.; Torta, G.; Giardino, M.

2013-02-01

Glaciers are among the best terrestrial indicators of climate change and thus glacier inventories have attracted a growing, worldwide interest in recent years. In Italy, the first official glacier inventory was completed in 1925 and 774 glacial bodies were identified. As the amount of data continues to increase, and new techniques become available, there is a growing demand for computer tools that can efficiently manage the collected data. The Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection of the National Research Council, in cooperation with the Departments of Computer Science and Earth Sciences of the University of Turin, created a database that provides a modern tool for storing, processing and sharing glaciological data. The database was developed according to the need of storing heterogeneous information, which can be retrieved through a set of web search queries. The database's architecture is server-side, and was designed by means of an open source software. The website interface, simple and intuitive, was intended to meet the needs of a distributed public: through this interface, any type of glaciological data can be managed, specific queries can be performed, and the results can be exported in a standard format. The use of a relational database to store and organize a large variety of information about Italian glaciers collected over the last hundred years constitutes a significant step forward in ensuring the safety and accessibility of such data. Moreover, the same benefits also apply to the enhanced operability for handling information in the future, including new and emerging types of data formats, such as geographic and multimedia files. Future developments include the integration of cartographic data, such as base maps, satellite images and vector data. The relational database described in this paper will be the heart of a new geographic system that will merge data, data attributes and maps, leading to a complete description of Italian glacial environments.
AMOC response to global warming: dependence on the background climate and response timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Jiaxu; Liu, Wei

2015-06-01

This paper investigates the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden doubling of atmospheric CO2 in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3, with a focus on differences under different background climates. The findings reveal that the evolution of the AMOC differs significantly between the modern climate and the last glacial maximum (LGM). In the modern climate, the AMOC decreases (by 25 %, 4 Sv) in the first 100 years and then recovers slowly (by 6 %, 1 Sv) by the end of the 1,500-year simulation. At the LGM, the AMOC also weakens (by 8 %, 1 Sv) in the initial 90 years, but then recovers, first rapidly (by 30 %, 4 Sv) over the following 300 years, and then slowly (by 13 %, 1.6 Sv) during the remainder of the integration. These results suggest that the responses of the AMOC under both climates have a similar initial rapid weakening period of ~100 years and a final slow strengthening period over 1,000 years long. However, additional intermediate period of ~300 years does occur for the LGM, with rapid intensification in the AMOC. Analyses suggest that the rapid intensification is triggered and sustained primarily by a coupled sea ice-ocean feedback: the reduction of meltwater flux in the northern North Atlantic—associated with the remarkable sea-ice retreat at the LGM—intensifies the AMOC and northward heat transport, which, in turn, causes further sea-ice retreat and more reduction of meltwater. These processes are insignificant under modern conditions.
An exceptionally preserved Eocene shark and the rise of modern predator-prey interactions in the coral reef food web.

PubMed

Fanti, Federico; Minelli, Daniela; Conte, Gabriele Larocca; Miyashita, Tetsuto

2016-01-01

Following extreme climatic warming events, Eocene Lagerstätten document aquatic and terrestrial vertebrate faunas surprisingly similar to modern counterparts. This transition in marine systems is best documented in the earliest teleost-dominated coral reef assemblage of Pesciara di Bolca, northern Italy, from near the end of the Eocene Climatic Optimum. Its rich fauna shows similarities with that of the modern Great Barrier Reef in niche exploitation by and morphological disparity among teleost primary consumers. However, such paleoecological understanding has not transcended trophic levels above primary consumers, particularly in carcharhiniform sharks. We report an exceptionally preserved fossil school shark (Galeorhinus cuvieri) from Pesciara di Bolca. In addition to the spectacular preservation of soft tissues, including brain, muscles, and claspers, this male juvenile shark has stomach contents clearly identifiable as a sphyraenid acanthomorph (barracuda). This association provides evidence that a predator-prey relationship between Galeorhinus and Sphyraena in the modern coral reefs has roots in the Eocene. A growth curve of the living species of Galeorhinus fitted to G. cuvieri suggests that all specimens of G. cuvieri from the lagoonal deposits of Bolca represent sexually and somatically immature juveniles. The modern trophic association between higher-degree consumers (Galeorhinus and Sphyraena) has a counterpart in the Eocene Bolca, just as Bolca and the Great Barrier Reef show parallels among teleost primary consumers. Given the age of Bolca, trophic networks among consumers observed in modern coral reefs arose by the exit from the Climatic Optimum. The biased representation of juveniles suggests that the Bolca Lagerstätte served as a nursery habitat for G. cuvieri. Ultraviolet photography may be useful in probing for exceptional soft tissue preservation before common acid preparation methods.
[Current status and trends in the health of the Moscow population].

PubMed

Tishuk, E A; Plavunov, N F; Soboleva, N P

1997-01-01

Based on vast comprehensive medical statistical database, the authors analyze the health status of the population and the efficacy of public health service in Moscow. The pre-crisis tendencies and the modern status of public health under modern socioeconomic conditions are noted.
Hands-on Approach to Prepare Specialists in Climate Changes Modeling and Analysis Using an Information-Computational Web-GIS Portal "Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulgina, T. M.; Gordova, Y. E.; Martynova, Y. V.

2014-12-01

A problem of making education relevant to the workplace tasks is a key problem of higher education in the professional field of environmental sciences. To answer this challenge several new courses for students of "Climatology" and "Meteorology" specialties were developed and implemented at the Tomsk State University, which comprises theoretical knowledge from up-to-date environmental sciences with computational tasks. To organize the educational process we use an open-source course management system Moodle (www.moodle.org). It gave us an opportunity to combine text and multimedia in a theoretical part of educational courses. The hands-on approach is realized through development of innovative trainings which are performed within the information-computational web GIS platform "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/). The platform has a set of tools and data bases allowing a researcher to perform climate changes analysis on the selected territory. The tools are also used for students' trainings, which contain practical tasks on climate modeling and climate changes assessment and analysis. Laboratory exercises are covering three topics: "Analysis of regional climate changes"; "Analysis of climate extreme indices on the regional scale"; and "Analysis of future climate". They designed to consolidate students' knowledge of discipline, to instill in them the skills to work independently with large amounts of geophysical data using modern processing and analysis tools of web-GIS platform "Climate" and to train them to present results obtained on laboratory work as reports with the statement of the problem, the results of calculations and logically justified conclusion. Thus, students are engaged in n the use of modern tools of the geophysical data analysis and it cultivates dynamic of their professional learning. The approach can help us to fill in this gap because it is the only approach that offers experience, increases students involvement, advance the use of modern information and communication tools. Financial support for this research from the RFBR (13-05-12034, 14-05-00502), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1 and grant of the President of RF (№ 181) is acknowledged.
An overview of some concepts, potentials, issues, and realities of assisted migration for climate change adaptation in forests

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Stephen Matthews; Anantha Prasad

2013-01-01

The climate has always been changing, but the rapid rate of climate change, as projected by the IPCC (2007) will likely place unique stresses on plant communities. In addition, anthropogenic barriers (e.g., fragmented land use) present a significant modern constraint that will limit the ability of species migration in responses to a changing climate. As such, managers...
Pluvials, Droughts, the Mongol Empire, and Modern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hessl, A. E.; Pederson, N.; Baatarbileg, N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2013-12-01

Understanding the connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climatic transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. Many studies link the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate conditions, but few have investigated the connection between climate, surplus energy, and the rise of empires. Inner Asia in the 13th century underwent a major political transformation requiring enormous energetic inputs that altered human history. The Mongol Empire, centered on the city of Karakorum, became the largest contiguous land empire in world history (Fig. 1 inset). Powered by domesticated grazing animals, the empire grew at the expense of sedentary agriculturalists across Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Although some scholars and conventional wisdom agree that dry conditions spurred the Mongol conquests, little paleoenvironmental data at annual resolution are available to evaluate the role of climate in the development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 2600 year tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), a measure of water balance, derived from 107 live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees growing on a Holocene lava flow in central Mongolia. Trees growing on the Khorgo lava flow today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are extremely water-stressed and their radial growth is well-correlated with both drought (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Our reconstruction, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-September scPDSI (1959-2009) accounts for 55.8% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when 73% of the annual rainfall occurs. Our scPDSI reconstruction places historic and modern social change in Mongolia in the context of the range of climatic variability during the Common Era. Our record, in combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, shows that the climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khaan's (Ghengis Khan) 13th century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. Tree-ring and meteorological data combined suggest that the early 21st century drought was the hottest drought in the last 1000 years, consistent with model projections of warming in Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar 'heat droughts', with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.
Advances in Satellite Microwave Precipitation Retrieval Algorithms Over Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, N. Y.; You, Y.; Ferraro, R. R.

2015-12-01

Precipitation plays a key role in the earth's climate system, particularly in the aspect of its water and energy balance. Satellite microwave (MW) observations of precipitation provide a viable mean to achieve global measurement of precipitation with sufficient sampling density and accuracy. However, accurate precipitation information over land from satellite MW is a challenging problem. The Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) algorithm for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is built around the Bayesian formulation (Evans et al., 1995; Kummerow et al., 1996). GPROF uses the likelihood function and the prior probability distribution function to calculate the expected value of precipitation rate, given the observed brightness temperatures. It is particularly convenient to draw samples from a prior PDF from a predefined database of observations or models. GPROF algorithm does not search all database entries but only the subset thought to correspond to the actual observation. The GPM GPROF V1 database focuses on stratification by surface emissivity class, land surface temperature and total precipitable water. However, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed to subset the database for different conditions. To this end, we conduct a database stratification study of using National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and reanalysis data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Our database study (You et al., 2015) shows that environmental factors such as surface elevation, relative humidity, and storm vertical structure and height, and ice thickness can help in stratifying a single large database to smaller and more homogeneous subsets, in which the surface condition and precipitation vertical profiles are similar. It is found that the probability of detection (POD) increases about 8% and 12% by using stratified databases for rainfall and snowfall detection, respectively. In addition, by considering the relative humidity at lower troposphere and the vertical velocity at 700 hPa in the precipitation detection process, the POD for snowfall detection is further increased by 20.4% from 56.0% to 76.4%.
Annually laminated sequences in the internal structure of some Belgian stalagmites -- Importance for paleoclimatology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genty, D.; Quinif, Y.

1996-01-01

Fifteen stalagmites from four caves and one sealed tunnel in southern Belgium are composed of alternations of annually deposited white-porous and dark-compact laminae. This is demonstrated by comparing the number of laminae with the local history of the site for modern stalagmites and with radioisotopic ages for Late Glacial and Holocene stalagmites. Annual cyclicity in the internal structure of these speleothems is explained by the highly seasonal variations of the water excess, which influences underground water flow. Comparison between climatic data and modern stalagmites of a closed tunnel shows that growth laminae can record climatic variations: (1) there is amore » good correlation (R = 0.84) between lamina thickness in a stalagmite and water excess; (2) during years with a high water excess, dark-compact laminae are more developed, which makes the speleothem darker. Vertical successions of several laminae represent microsequences that may have recorded climatic variations with a time resolution of 1/2 year. In a Late Glacial stalagmite, successive laminae microsequences form very regular cycles of 11 years separated by a thick dark-compact lamina. It is supported that, as for modern stalagmites, the thick dark-compact lamina corresponds to a period of high water excess. Hence, this 11-year cycle may reflect a climatic cycle.« less
Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmanli, Hussein; Zhao, Chengyi; Stahr, Karl

2017-04-01

The Tarim River Basin is the largest continental basin in China. The region has extremely continental desert climate characterized by little rainfall <50 mm/a and high potential evaporation >3000 mm/a. The climate change is affecting severely the basin causing soil salinization, water shortage, and regression in crop production. Therefore, a Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for the regional simulation of crop yield production in the basin was developed. The SLISYS-Tarim consists of a database and an agro-ecological simulation model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). The database comprises relational tables including information about soils, terrain conditions, land use, and climate. The soil data implicate information of 50 soil profiles which were dug, analyzed, described and classified in order to characterize the soils in the region. DEM data were integrated with geological maps to build a digital terrain structure. Remote sensing data of Landsat images were applied for soil mapping, and for land use and land cover classification. An additional database for climate data, land management and crop information were linked to the system, too. Construction of the SLISYS-Tarim database was accomplished by integrating and overlaying the recommended thematic maps within environment of the geographic information system (GIS) to meet the data standard of the global and national SOTER digital database. This database forms appropriate input- and output data for the crop modelling with the EPIC model at various scales in the Tarim Basin. The EPIC model was run for simulating cotton production under a constructed scenario characterizing the current management practices, soil properties and climate conditions. For the EPIC model calibration, some parameters were adjusted so that the modeled cotton yield fits to the measured yield on the filed scale. The validation of the modeling results was achieved in a later step based on remote sensing data. The simulated cotton yield varied according to field management, soil type and salinity level, where soil salinity was the main limiting factor. Furthermore, the calibrated and validated EPIC model was run under several scenarios of climate conditions and land management practices to estimate the effect of climate change on cotton production and sustainability of agriculture systems in the basin. The application of SLISYS-Tarim showed that this database can be a suitable framework for storage and retrieval of soil and terrain data at various scales. The simulation with the EPIC model can assess the impact of climate change and management strategies. Therefore, SLISYS-Tarim can be a good tool for regional planning and serve the decision support system on regional and national scale.
The human dimensions of climate change: A micro-level assessment of views from the ecological modernization, political economy and human ecology perspectives.

PubMed

Adua, Lazarus; York, Richard; Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne

2016-03-01

Understanding the manifold human and physical dimensions of climate change has become an area of great interest to researchers in recent decades. Using a U.S. nationally-representative data set and drawing on the ecological modernization, political economy, and human ecology perspectives, this study examines the impacts of energy efficiency technologies, affluence, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics on residential CO2 emissions. Overall, the study provides mixed support for the ecological modernization perspective. While several findings are consistent with the theory's expectation that modern societies can harness technology to mitigate human impacts on the environment, others directly contradict it. Also, the theory's prediction of an inverted U-shaped relationship between affluence and environmental impacts is contradicted. The evidence is somewhat more supportive of the political economy and human ecology perspectives, with affluence, some indicators of technology, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics emerging as important drivers of residential CO2 emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards

PubMed Central

Lowe, John; Barton, Nick; Blockley, Simon; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Cullen, Victoria L.; Davies, William; Gamble, Clive; Grant, Katharine; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert; Lane, Christine S.; Lee, Sharen; Lewis, Mark; MacLeod, Alison; Menzies, Martin; Müller, Wolfgang; Pollard, Mark; Price, Catherine; Roberts, Andrew P.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Satow, Chris; Smith, Victoria C.; Stringer, Chris B.; Tomlinson, Emma L.; White, Dustin; Albert, Paul; Arienzo, Ilenia; Barker, Graeme; Borić, Dušan; Carandente, Antonio; Civetta, Lucia; Ferrier, Catherine; Guadelli, Jean-Luc; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Koumouzelis, Margarita; Müller, Ulrich C.; Orsi, Giovanni; Pross, Jörg; Rosi, Mauro; Shalamanov-Korobar, Ljiljiana; Sirakov, Nikolay; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.

2012-01-01

Marked changes in human dispersal and development during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition have been attributed to massive volcanic eruption and/or severe climatic deterioration. We test this concept using records of volcanic ash layers of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption dated to ca. 40,000 y ago (40 ka B.P.). The distribution of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been enhanced by the discovery of cryptotephra deposits (volcanic ash layers that are not visible to the naked eye) in archaeological cave sequences. They enable us to synchronize archaeological and paleoclimatic records through the period of transition from Neanderthal to the earliest anatomically modern human populations in Europe. Our results confirm that the combined effects of a major volcanic eruption and severe climatic cooling failed to have lasting impacts on Neanderthals or early modern humans in Europe. We infer that modern humans proved a greater competitive threat to indigenous populations than natural disasters. PMID:22826222
Geographical Distribution of Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests: A Database (NPD-068)

DOE Data Explorer

Brown, Sandra [University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois (USA); Iverson, Louis R. [University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois (USA); Prasad, Anantha [University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois (USA); Beaty, Tammy W. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Olsen, Lisa M. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Cushman, Robert M. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Brenkert, Antoinette L. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2001-03-01

A database was generated of estimates of geographically referenced carbon densities of forest vegetation in tropical Southeast Asia for 1980. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to incorporate spatial databases of climatic, edaphic, and geomorphological indices and vegetation to estimate potential (i.e., in the absence of human intervention and natural disturbance) carbon densities of forests. The resulting map was then modified to estimate actual 1980 carbon density as a function of population density and climatic zone. The database covers the following 13 countries: Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia (Campuchea), India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam.
The Modern Near-Surface Martian Climate: A Review of In-situ Meteorological Data from Viking to Curiosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, G. M.; Newman, C. N.; De Vicente-Retortillo, A.; Fischer, E.; Renno, N. O.; Richardson, M. I.; Fairén, A. G.; Genzer, M.; Guzewich, S. D.; Haberle, R. M.; Harri, A.-M.; Kemppinen, O.; Lemmon, M. T.; Smith, M. D.; de la Torre-Juárez, M.; Vasavada, A. R.

2017-10-01

We analyze the complete set of in-situ meteorological data obtained from the Viking landers in the 1970s to today's Curiosity rover to review our understanding of the modern near-surface climate of Mars, with focus on the dust, CO2 and H2O cycles and their impact on the radiative and thermodynamic conditions near the surface. In particular, we provide values of the highest confidence possible for atmospheric opacity, atmospheric pressure, near-surface air temperature, ground temperature, near-surface wind speed and direction, and near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor content. Then, we study the diurnal, seasonal and interannual variability of these quantities over a span of more than twenty Martian years. Finally, we propose measurements to improve our understanding of the Martian dust and H2O cycles, and discuss the potential for liquid water formation under Mars' present day conditions and its implications for future Mars missions. Understanding the modern Martian climate is important to determine if Mars could have the conditions to support life and to prepare for future human exploration.
Towards better understanding of high-mountain cryosphere changes using GPM data: A Joint Snowfall and Snow-cover Passive Microwave Retrieval Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebtehaj, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2016-12-01

Scientific evidence suggests that the duration and frequency of snowfall and the extent of snow cover are rapidly declining under global warming. Both precipitation and snow cover scatter the upwelling surface microwave emission and decrease the observed high-frequency brightness temperatures. The mixture of these two scattering signals is amongst the largest sources of ambiguities and errors in passive microwave retrievals of both precipitation and snow-cover. The dual frequency radar and the high-frequency radiometer on board the GPM satellite provide a unique opportunity to improve passive retrievals of precipitation and snow-cover physical properties and fill the gaps in our understating of their variability in view of climate change. Recently, a new Bayesian rainfall retrieval algorithm (called ShARP) was developed using modern approximation methods and shown to yield improvements against other algorithms in retrieval of rainfall over radiometrically complex land surfaces. However, ShARP uses a large database of input rainfall and output brightness temperatures, which might be undersampled. Furthermore, it is not capable to discriminate between solid and liquid phase of precipitation and specifically discriminate the background snow-cover emission and its contamination effects on the retrievals. We address these problems by extending it to a new Bayesian land-atmosphere retrieval framework (ShARP-L) that allows joint retrievals of atmospheric constituents and land surface physical properties. Using modern sparse approximation techniques, the database is reduced to atomic microwave signatures in a family of compact class consistent dictionaries. These dictionaries can efficiently represent the entire database and allow us to discriminate between different land-atmosphere states. First the algorithm makes use of the dictionaries to detect the phase of the precipitation and type of the land-cover and then it estimates the physical properties of precipitation and snow cover using an extended version of the Dantzig Selector, which is robust to non-Gaussian and correlated geophysical noise. Promising results are presented in retrievals of snowfall and snow-cover over coastal orographic features of North America's Coast Range and South America's Andes.
Burnout and quality of life among orthopaedic trainees in a modern educational programme: importance of the learning climate.

PubMed

van Vendeloo, S N; Brand, P L P; Verheyen, C C P M

2014-08-01

We aimed to determine quality of life and burnout among Dutch orthopaedic trainees following a modern orthopaedic curriculum, with strict compliance to a 48-hour working week. We also evaluated the effect of the clinical climate of learning on their emotional well-being. We assessed burnout, quality of life and the clinical climate of learning in 105 orthopaedic trainees using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, linear analogue scale self-assessments, and Dutch Residency Educational Climate Test (D-RECT), respectively. A total of 19 trainees (18%) had poor quality of life and 49 (47%) were dissatisfied with the balance between their personal and professional life. Some symptoms of burnout were found in 29 trainees (28%). Higher D-RECT scores (indicating a better climate of learning) were associated with a better quality of life (r = 0.31, p = 0.001), more work-life balance satisfaction (r = 0.31, p = 0.002), fewer symptoms of emotional exhaustion (r = -0.21, p = 0.028) and depersonalisation (r = -0,28, p = 0.04). A reduced quality of life with evidence of burnout were still seen in a significant proportion of orthopaedic trainees despite following a modern curriculum with strict compliance to a 48-hour working week. It is vital that further work is undertaken to improve the quality of life and reduce burnout in this cohort. ©2014 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.
Ice Accretion Test Results for Three Large-Scale Swept-Wing Models in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broeren, Andy; Potapczuk, Mark; Lee, Sam; Malone, Adam; Paul, Ben; Woodard, Brian

2016-01-01

The design and certification of modern transport airplanes for flight in icing conditions increasing relies on three-dimensional numerical simulation tools for ice accretion prediction. There is currently no publically available, high-quality, ice accretion database upon which to evaluate the performance of icing simulation tools for large-scale swept wings that are representative of modern commercial transport airplanes. The purpose of this presentation is to present the results of a series of icing wind tunnel test campaigns whose aim was to provide an ice accretion database for large-scale, swept wings.
Covariation of climate and long-term erosion rates acrossa steep rainfall gradient on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ken Ferrier,; J. Taylor Perron,; Sujoy Mukhopadhyay,; Matt Rosener,; Stock, Jonathan; Slosberg, Michelle; Kimberly L. Huppert,

2013-01-01

Erosion of volcanic ocean islands creates dramatic landscapes, modulates Earth’s carbon cycle, and delivers sediment to coasts and reefs. Because many volcanic islands have large climate gradients and minimal variations in lithology and tectonic history, they are excellent natural laboratories for studying climatic effects on the evolution of topography. Despite concerns that modern sediment fluxes to island coasts may exceed long-term fluxes, little is known about how erosion rates and processes vary across island interiors, how erosion rates are influenced by the strong climate gradients on many islands, and how modern island erosion rates compare to long-term rates. Here, we present new measurements of erosion rates over 5 yr to 5 m.y. timescales on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i, across which mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 to 9.5 m/yr. Eroded rock volumes from basins across Kaua‘i indicate that million-year-scale erosion rates are correlated with modern mean annual precipitation and range from 8 to 335 t km–2 yr–1. In Kaua‘i’s Hanalei River basin, 3He concentrations in detrital olivines imply millennial-scale erosion rates of >126 to >390 t km–2 yr–1 from olivine-bearing hillslopes, while fluvial suspended sediment fluxes measured from 2004 to 2009 plus estimates of chemical and bed-load fluxes imply basin-averaged erosion rates of 545 ± 128 t km–2 yr–1. Mapping of landslide scars in satellite imagery of the Hanalei basin from 2004 and 2010 implies landslide-driven erosion rates of 30–47 t km–2 yr–1. These measurements imply that modern erosion rates in the Hanalei basin are no more than 2.3 ± 0.6 times faster than millennial-scale erosion rates, and, to the extent that modern precipitation patterns resemble long-term patterns, they are consistent with a link between precipitation rates and long-term erosion rates.

How Dry was too Dry? Evaluating the Impact of Climatic Stress on Prehistoric Human Populations in southern Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, V. E.; Asrat, A.; Cohen, A. S.; Junginger, A.; Lamb, H. F.; Schaebitz, F.; Trauth, M. H.; Vogelsang, R.

2016-12-01

What role did abrupt climate shifts play in human evolution and the dispersal of Homo sapiens within and beyond the African continent? How did gradual climatic transitions on the other hand affect cultural and technological innovations in the source region of modern humans? In order to evaluate the effect of environmental instability on human evolution, with their cultural and technological innovations, and with their expansion out of Africa, it is essential to understand how the east African climate switches from dry to wet and back to dry. Determining the timespan of both long-term transitions and climate flickers eventually provides the much needed environmental information how much time early humans had to react (evolution, migration, adaption) to the profound changes in their living environment. As a contribution to providing an environmental context to these central questions on human-climate interaction, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has successfully completed coring five fluvio-lacustrine archives of climate change during the last 3.5 Ma in East Africa. The five high-priority areas in Ethiopia and Kenya are located in close proximity to key paleoanthropological sites covering various steps in evolution. Here we present a comparison between the youngest part of our continuous climate reconstruction (temporal resolution of up to 3 years) from the Chew Bahir site in southern Ethiopia and the available archaeological record of human presence in the source region of modern humans for the past 20 ka. The results contribute to test hypotheses on the impact of climatic stress on migration, the role of human decision-making and environmental thresholds (Foerster et al., 2015, 2016). Furthermore, we match key technological innovations in the area with the profound environmental changes during the highly debated mid-Holocene wet-dry transition. Finally, we give a first overview over possible phases of climatic stress during the last >500 ka in the first homeland of modern humans, as a time interval that comprises the transition into the Middle Stone Age as well as the origin and dispersal of Homo sapiens.
Modernization and new technologies: Coping with the information explosion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blados, Walter R.; Cotter, Gladys A.

1993-01-01

Information has become a valuable and strategic resource in all societies and economies. Scientific and technical information is especially important in developing and maintaining a strong national science and technology base. The expanding use of information technology, the growth of interdisciplinary research, and an increase in international collaboration are changing characteristics of information. This modernization effort applies new technology to current processes to provide near-term benefits to the user. At the same time, we are developing a long-term modernization strategy designed to transition the program to a multimedia, global 'library without walls'. Notwithstanding this modernization program, it is recogized that no one information center can hope to collect all the relevant data. We see information and information systems changing and becoming more international in scope. We are finding that many nations are expending resources on national systems which duplicate each other. At the same time that this duplication exists, many useful sources of aerospace information are not being collected to cover expanded sources of information. This paper reviews the NASA modernization program and raises for consideration new possibilities for unification of the various aerospace database efforts toward a cooperative international aerospace database initiative, one that can optimize the cost/benefit equation for all participants.
Holocene Migrations of Creosote Bush and Pinyon Pines in the Western United States: Implications for the Next Century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, K. L.; Arundel, S.; Cannella, J.; Fisher, J.; Spaulding, W. G.

2002-12-01

The biogeographic histories of plant species of the arid western United States are becoming evident as more local paleoecological series are developed and compiled into regional databases. Plant macrofossils from packrat (Neotoma spp.) middens have been especially useful for reconstructing past distributions of arid and semi-arid species such as creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) and one and two-needle pinyon pines (Pinus monophylla, P. edulis). These records document the late Wisconsinan ranges of these species and their subsequent Holocene migrations into their current ranges. Creosote bush grew in the lower Colorado River Valley during the late Wisconsinan (Isotope Stage 2). Starting around 11,000 yr B.P., it migrated northward into its present range. By 6000 yr B.P. it grew at higher elevations than at present in the central Mojave Desert, but did not reach its extreme northern limits until around 4000 yr B.P. Other populations, such as near the shrubs upstream limit along the Colorado River, were not established until the last 2500 years. Its arrival at its most northerly sites lagged well behind other desert thermophiles. Single-needle pinyon (Pinus monophylla) migrated northward from the Mojave Desert into the Great Basin arriving near its current northeastern limit in the eastern Great Basin as early as 7000 yr B.P. It migrated more slowly in the western Great Basin possibly not reaching its northwestern limit until the last 2000 years. Colorado pinyon (Pinus edulis) migrated from near its current southern boundary northward reaching the eastern Grand Canyon as early as 10,600 yr B.P. It is not recorded from central Utah until after 7000 yr B.P. It evidently moved northward slowly, arriving at some northerly and easterly stands only within the last 1000 years. These migrational histories reflect a combination of dispersal limitations and gradual climatic changes. But the long migration times required, coupled with their expansion above their modern elevational limits during the middle Holocene, suggest that the primary factor slowing their response was migrational distance rather than a monotonic trend of warming climates through the Holocene. These results have implications for vegetational effects of the expected climate shifts of the next 100 years. Although this change may be as little as a third as the 6oC warming that occurred near the beginning of the Holocene, the past rates of migration suggest that little equilibration with the new climate can be expected in time spans under 1000 years. Also, mapping of 20 climate variables describing the modern climatic tolerances of these species suggests that they already have significant available potential range, mostly to the north of their current ranges, that should now be suitable for their expansion. These results suggest that either the late Holocene populations had not yet equilibrated with the Pleistocene to Holocene change in climate, or that climate has already warmed so much since the Little Ice Age that many species are no longer in equilibrium with late Twentieth Century climate.
Site-specific high-resolution models of the monsoon for Africa and Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryson, R. A.; Bryson, R. U.

2000-11-01

Using the macrophysical climate model of Bryson [Bryson, R.A., 1992. A macrophysical model of the Holocene intertropical convergence and jetstream positions and rainfall for the Saharan region. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 47, pp. 247-258], it is possible to calculate the monthly latitude of the jetstream and the latitude of the subtropical anticyclones. From these and modern climatic data, it is possible to model the two-century mean latitude of the intertropical convergence (ITC) month by month and estimate the monthly monsoon rainfall using the ITC-Rainfall model of Ilesanmi [Ilesanmi, O.O., 1971. An empirical formulation of an ITD rainfall model for the tropics — a case study of Nigeria. J. Appl. Meteorol., 10, pp. 882-891] and similar relationships. Input to this model is only calculated radiation and atmospheric optical depth estimated from a database of global volcanicity. Recent work has shown that it is possible to extend these estimates to both precipitation and temperature at specific sites, even in mountainous terrain. Testing of the model against archaeological records and climatic proxies is now underway, as well as refining the fundamental model. Preliminary indications are that the timing of fluctuations in the local climate is very well modeled. Especially well matched are the modeled Nile flood based on calculated rainfall on the Blue and White Nile watersheds and the level of Lake Moeris [Hassan, F., 1985. Holocene lakes and prehistoric settlements of the Western Faiyum, Egypt. J. Archaeol. Res., 13, pp. 483-501]. Modeled precipitation histories for specific sites in China, Thailand, the Arabian Peninsula, and North Africa will be presented and contrasted with the simulated rainfall history of Mesopotamia.
Educational process in modern climatology within the web-GIS platform "Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Gorbatenko, Valentina; Gordov, Evgeny; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

These days, common to all scientific fields the problem of training of scientists in the environmental sciences is exacerbated by the need to develop new computational and information technology skills in distributed multi-disciplinary teams. To address this and other pressing problems of Earth system sciences, software infrastructure for information support of integrated research in the geosciences was created based on modern information and computational technologies and a software and hardware platform "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) was developed. In addition to the direct analysis of geophysical data archives, the platform is aimed at teaching the basics of the study of changes in regional climate. The educational component of the platform includes a series of lectures on climate, environmental and meteorological modeling and laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example. The educational process within the Platform is implemented using the distance learning system Moodle (www.moodle.org). This work is partially supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (contract #8345), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #11-05-01190a, and integrated project SB RAS #131.
Soils regulate and mitigate climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: The interaction of soil science and ecology can be traced back to the origins of soil science as an independent discipline within the natural sciences. Vasili Dokuchaev, the founder of modern soil science, identified five soil forming factors: parent material, climate, o...
Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Allen, Jenica M.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Lancaster, Lesley T.; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E.

2012-01-01

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.
Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B. I.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Davies, J.; Ault, T. R.; Betancourt, J. L.; Allen, J.; Bolmgren, K.; Cleland, E. E.; Crimmins, T. M.; Kraft, N.; Lancaster, L.; Mazer, S.; McCabe, G. J.; McGill, B.; Parmesan, C.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Salamin, N.; Schwartz, M. D.; Travers, S.

2012-12-01

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post-hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (e.g., species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (e.g., deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and undersampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal midlatitudes.
Climatic and physiological controls on the stable isotope composition of modern and ancient Cupressaceae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinniker, D.; Tipple, B.; Pagani, M.

2007-12-01

Unique and abundant secondary metabolites found in waxes and resins of the Callitroid, Cupressoid, and Taxodioid clades of the Cupressaceae family can be identified and quantified in complex mixtures of sedimentary organic compounds. This unusual feature makes it possible to study relatively simple (taxon-specific) isotope systems back in time across the broad array of environments in which these conifers are found. Work on these systems can potentially provide both robust paleoenvironmental proxies (i.e. for source water δD and growing season relative humidity) and quantitative probes into the ecophysiology of these plants in modern and ancient environments. Our research focuses on three genera representing environmental end-members of Cupressaceae - Juniperus, Thuja, and Chamaecyparis - (1) across geographic and environmental gradients in the field, and (2) in specific Holocene and late Pleistocene environmental records. The latter research focuses on peat cores from New England and Oregon and fossil packrat middens from the southwestern United States. Modern transects highlight the sensitivity of Cupressaceae to climatic variables. These include both variables during growth (relative humidity, soil moisture, etc.) and variables affecting seasonal and diurnal growth rates (temperature, winter precipitation, insolation, microhabitat, etc.). Work on ancient records has demonstrated the sensitivity of these unique taxon-specific archives to both subtle and dramatic climate shifts during the Pleistocene and Holocene. This work will result in an improved understanding of climatic and physiological controls on the stable isotopic composition of modern and ancient Cupressaceae - and by extension, other arborescent gymnosperms and C3 plants - providing a framework for understanding more complexly sourced organic inputs to sediments, coals, and petroleum prior to the advent of C4 plants. This research also has direct implications for stratigraphic stable isotope studies of gymnosperm markers across the last millenium, the Pleistocene, and important climatic events in the Mesozoic and Tertiary.
Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

2016-09-01

The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern China were a much later development.
Tropical Pacific climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly: progress and pitfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Charles, C.; Sayani, H. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.; Atwood, A. R.

2016-12-01

A vast trove of paleoclimate records indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1200AD) was characterized by relative warmth throughout the Northern Hemisphere and significant hydroclimate anomalies - particularly well-resolved over North America - that posed a challenge to human populations. The global-scale nature of the climate anomalies has driven speculation that the tropical Pacific, with its rich spectrum of natural variability and far-reaching impact, may have undergone a prolonged reorganization during the MCA. While some key records from across the tropical Pacific document significant changes in temperature and/or hydrology, a dynamically-consistent picture of the MCA tropical Pacific climate state has proven elusive. In particular, there are few if any robust paleoclimate constraints from the central Pacific, where even modest changes in ocean temperature translate into distinct patterns of global atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we present a new collection of fossil coral multi-proxy records from Christmas Island (2N, 157W) that provide robust constraints on both temperature and hydrological changes during the MCA. We employ both modern coral data, instrumental climate data, and climate model output in developing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties associated with the new fossil coral data. In doing so, we illustrate the clear benefits of modern environmental monitoring campaigns that inform the generation of paleoclimate pseudo-proxies.
PaleoClim: new datasets to quantify the impact of past climate changes on modern biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, D. J.; Brown, J. T.; Carnaval, A. C.; Haywood, A. M.

2017-12-01

Palaeoclimate history is an important driver of modern patterns of biodiversity and many ecological modelling studies have shown the predictive power of palaeoclimate information. However, a major limiting factor to such studies is the availability of global palaeoclimate reconstructions in the relevant bioclim layers. The primary source of such fields is from climate model simulations, which are currently limited to the key PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) intervals of the mid-Holocene (6ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (21ka) and the Last Interglaciation (130ka). The PaleoClim project will significantly increase the availability of pre-processed palaeoclimate bioclim information and provide a new platform for accessing the information. The first new PaleoClim time period will be the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3Ma). This is the last period of sustained globally warmer than modern climate in Earth history and represents the last global warmth before the cooling into the Pleistocene ice ages. Being 3 million years ago this represents a significant lengthening of the time range of available bioclim layers and the first time these have been available over evolutionary timescales. PaleoClim will also greatly expand the available Pleistocene time periods, looking to both quantify the differences between the late Pleistocene interglacial periods and understand the role of orbital changes in modulating tropical precipitation and driving modern biodiversity patterns.
Evaluation of Sr/Ca-based paleoclimate reconstructions in modern and Medieval Diploria strigosa corals in the northeastern Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Pearson, S. P.; Kilbourne, K.

2013-12-01

Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has been implicated as a driver of climate changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950-1300 A.D.) but little data exists from the tropical oceans during this time period. We collected three modern and seven sub-fossil Diploria strigosa coral colonies from an overwash deposit on Anegada, British Virgin Islands (18.73 °N, 63.33 °W) in order to reconstruct climate in the northeastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic during the MCA. The first step in our reconstruction was to verify the climate signal from this species at this site. We sub-sampled the modern corals along thecal walls with an average sampling resolution of 11-13 samples per year. Sr/Ca ratios measured in the sub-samples were calibrated to temperature using three different calibration techniques (ordinary least squares, reduced major axis, and weighted least squares (WLS)) on the monthly data that includes the seasonal cycles and on the monthly anomaly data. WLS regression accounts for unequal errors in the x and y terms, so we consider it the most robust technique. The WLS regression slope between gridded SST and coral Sr/Ca is similar to the previous two calibrations of this species. Mean Sr/Ca for each of the three modern corals is 8.993 × 0.004 mmol/mol, 9.127 × 0.003 mmol/mol, and 8.960 × 0.007 mmol/mol. These straddle the mean Diploria strigosa Sr/Ca found by Giry et al., (2010), 9.080 mmol/mol, at a site with nearly the same mean SST as Anegada (27.4 °C vs. 27.5 °C). The climatological seasonal cycles for SST derived from the modern corals are statistically indistinguishable from the seasonal cycles in the instrumental SST data. The coral-based seasonal cycles have ranges of 2.70 × 0.31 °C, 2.65 × 0.08 °C and 2.71 × 0.53 °C. These results indicate that this calibration can be applied to our sub-fossil coral data. We applied the WLS calibration to monthly-resolution Sr/Ca data from multiple sub-fossil corals dating to the medieval period with initial U-series dates near the top of the cores ranging from 1277 × 5 A.D. to 1327 × 5 A.D. Initial Sr/Ca results from the first sub-fossil coral have a seasonal range of 2.65 × 0.27 °C when converted to temperature units with our modern calibration, indicating no significant change from modern times. However, the mean Sr/Ca for this coral is very high (9.388 mmol/mol) compared to the modern corals. We explore the potential causes for this discrepancy in our study. Because reconstructing the mean SST during the Medieval Climate Anomaly may be difficult without temporal overlap with modern corals, our focus is on interannual variability. The coral Sr/Ca based monthly SST anomalies for both modern and sub-fossil corals have larger interannual variances than the instrumental record. One explanation for this is that the SSTs derived from sub-fossil corals are local data for which one expects larger variances than the instrumental data averaged over a 2 x 2 ° grid. This species shows great promise for future paleoclimate reconstructions.
Climate Signals: An On-Line Digital Platform for Mapping Climate Change Impacts in Real Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Climate Signals is an on-line digital platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. The CS platform specifies and details the chains of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to to engage and serve the general public, news media, and policy-makers, particularly in real-time during extreme climate events. Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, a mapping engine, and a gallery of climate change monitors offering real-time data. For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom attribution "tree" that illustrates the connections to climate change. In addition, links to key contextual resources are aggregated and curated for each event. All event records are fully annotated with detailed source citations and corresponding hyper links. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change in real-time is detailed here. This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Launched in May 2016, the operation of this platform offers lessons for public engagement in climate change impacts.
Solar activities and Climate change hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hady, A. A., II

2014-12-01

Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.
The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in the IPY 2007-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennicutt, M. C.; Wilson, T. J.; Summerhayes, C.

2005-05-01

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops, and coordinates international scientific research in the Antarctic region. SCAR is assuming a leadership position in the IPY primarily through its five major Scientific Research Programs; ACE, SALE, EBA, AGCS, and ICESTAR; which will be briefly described.Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) promotes the exchange of data and ideas between research groups focusing on the evolution of Antarctica's climate system and ice sheet. The program will: (1) quantitatively assess the climate and glacial history of Antarctica; (2) identify the processes which govern Antarctic change and feed back around the globe; (3) improve our ability to model past changes in Antarctica; and (4)document past change to predict future change in Antarctica. Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) promotes, facilitates, and champions cooperation and collaboration in the exploration and study of subglacial environments in Antarctica. SALE intends to understand the complex interplay of biological, geological, chemical, glaciological, and physical processes within subglacial lake environments through coordinated international research teams. Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) will use a suite of modern techniques and interdisciplinary approaches, to explore the evolutionary history of selected modern Antarctic biota, examine how modern biological diversity in the Antarctic influences the way present-day ecosystems function, and thereby predict how the biota may respond to future environmental change. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (AGCS) will investigate the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the rest of the Earth system, and the mechanisms involved therein. A combination of modern instrumented records of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and the climate signals held within ice cores will be used to understand past and future climate variability and change in the Antarctic as a result of natural and anthropogenic forcings over the last 100,000 years. Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar-Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research (ICESTAR) will study the interactions between and collective behavior of the many component parts of the Earth system, including the interaction between the natural environment and human society. Objectives include specification and prediction of the state of the system and assimilation and integration of data from disparate sources to understand the complex geospace environment.
Root Systems of Individual Plants, and the Biotic and Abiotic Factors Controlling Their Depth and Distribution: a Synthesis Using a Global Database.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tumber-Davila, S. J.; Schenk, H. J.; Jackson, R. B.

2017-12-01

This synthesis examines plant rooting distributions globally, by doubling the number of entries in the Root Systems of Individual Plants database (RSIP) created by Schenk and Jackson. Root systems influence many processes, including water and nutrient uptake and soil carbon storage. Root systems also mediate vegetation responses to changing climatic and environmental conditions. Therefore, a collective understanding of the importance of rooting systems to carbon sequestration, soil characteristics, hydrology, and climate, is needed. Current global models are limited by a poor understanding of the mechanisms affecting rooting, carbon stocks, and belowground biomass. This improved database contains an extensive bank of records describing the rooting system of individual plants, as well as detailed information on the climate and environment from which the observations are made. The expanded RSIP database will: 1) increase our understanding of rooting depths, lateral root spreads and above and belowground allometry; 2) improve the representation of plant rooting systems in Earth System Models; 3) enable studies of how climate change will alter and interact with plant species and functional groups in the future. We further focus on how plant rooting behavior responds to variations in climate and the environment, and create a model that can predict rooting behavior given a set of environmental conditions. Preliminary results suggest that high potential evapotranspiration and seasonality of precipitation are indicative of deeper rooting after accounting for plant growth form. When mapping predicted deep rooting by climate, we predict deepest rooting to occur in equatorial South America, Africa, and central India.
Climate Change, Instability and a Full Spectrum Approach to Conflict Prevention in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-23

commander to follow. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Climate Change, Global Warming , Security Cooperation, Stability, Instability, Stabilization, Security...note that global warming could also create similar impacts on resources.19 In modern times disputes over natural resources have erupted into conflict...16. Center for Naval Analysis, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, 18. 17. Michael T. Klare, ― Global Warming Battlefields: How
The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

PubMed

Mahony, Martin

2014-02-01

Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.
Understanding controls on cirque floor altitudes: Insights from Kamchatka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barr, Iestyn D.; Spagnolo, Matteo

2015-11-01

Glacial cirques reflect former regions of glacier initiation, and are therefore used as indicators of past climate. One specific way in which palaeoclimatic information is obtained from cirques is by analysing their elevations, on the assumption that cirque floor altitudes are a proxy for climatically controlled equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) during former periods of small scale (cirque-type) glaciation. However, specific controls on cirque altitudes are rarely assessed, and the validity of using cirque floor altitudes as a source of palaeoclimatic information remains open to question. In order to address this, here we analyse the distribution of 3520 ice-free cirques on the Kamchatka Peninsula (eastern Russia), and assess various controls on their floor altitudes. In addition, we analyse controls on the mid-altitudes of 503 modern glaciers, currently identifiable on the peninsula, and make comparisons with the cirque altitude data. The main study findings are that cirque floor altitudes increase steeply inland from the Pacific, suggesting that moisture availability (i.e., proximity to the coastline) played a key role in regulating the altitudes at which former (cirque-forming) glaciers were able to initiate. Other factors, such as latitude, aspect, topography, geology, and neo-tectonics seem to have played a limited (but not insignificant) role in regulating cirque floor altitudes, though south-facing cirques are typically higher than their north-facing equivalents, potentially reflecting the impact of prevailing wind directions (from the SSE) and/or variations in solar radiation on the altitudes at which former glaciers were able to initiate. Trends in glacier and cirque altitudes across the peninsula are typically comparable (i.e., values typically rise from both the north and south, inland from the Pacific coastline, and where glaciers/cirques are south-facing), yet the relationship with latitude is stronger for modern glaciers, and the relationship with distance to the coastline (and to a lesser degree with aspect) is notably weaker. These differences suggest that former glacier initiation (leading to cirque formation) was largely regulated by moisture availability (during winter months) and the control this exerted on accumulation; whilst the survival of modern glaciers is also strongly regulated by the variety of climatic and non-climatic factors that control ablation. As a result, relationships between modern glacier mid-altitudes and peninsula-wide climatic trends are more difficult to identify than when cirque floor altitudes are considered (i.e., cirque-forming glaciers were likely in climatic equilibrium, whereas modern glaciers may not be).

Medieval Warm Period Archives Preserved in Limpet Shells (Patella Vulgata) From Viking Deposits, United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobilia, M.; Surge, D.

2008-12-01

The Medieval Warm Period (700-1100 YBP) represents a recent period of warm climate, and as such provides a powerful comparison to today's continuing warming trend. However, the spatial and temporal variability inherent in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) makes it difficult to differentiate between global climate trends and regional variability. The continued study of this period will allow for the better understanding of temperature variability, both regional and global, during this climate interval. Our study is located in the Orkney Islands, Scotland, which is a critical area to understand climate dynamics. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream heavily influence climate in this region, and the study of climate intervals during the MWP will improve our understanding of the behavior of these climate mechanisms during this interval. Furthermore, the vast majority of the climate archive has been derived from either deep marine or arctic environments. Studying a coastal environment will offer valuable insight into the behavior of maritime climate during the MWP. Estimated seasonal sea surface temperature data were derived through isotopic analysis of limpet shells (Patella vulgata). Analysis of modern shells confirms that growth temperature tracks seasonal variation in ambient water temperature. Preliminary data from MWP shells record a seasonal temperature range comparable to that observed in the modern temperature data. We will extend the range of temperature data from the 10th through 14th centuries to advance our knowledge of seasonal temperature variability during the late Holocene.
Critical analysis of documentary sources for Historical Climatology of Northern Portugal (17th-19th centuries)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amorim, Inês; Sousa Silva, Luís; Garcia, João Carlos

2017-04-01

Critical analysis of documentary sources for Historical Climatology of Northern Portugal (17th-19th centuries) Inês Amorim CITCEM, Department of History, Political and International Studies, U. of Porto, Portugal. Luís Sousa Silva CITCEM, PhD Fellowship - FCT. João Carlos Garcia CIUHCT, Geography Department, U. of Porto, Portugal. The first major national project on Historical Climatology in Portugal, called "KLIMHIST: Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources (17th-19th centuries)", ended in September 2015, coordinated by Maria João Alcoforado. This project began in March 2012 and counted on an interdisciplinary team of researchers from four Portuguese institutions (Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, University of Porto, and University of Évora), from different fields of knowledge (Geography, History, Biology, Climatology and Meteorology). The team networked and collaborated with other international research groups on Climate Change and Historical Climatology, resulting in several publications. This project aimed to reconstruct thermal and rainfall patterns in Portugal between the 17th and 19th centuries, as well as identify the main hydrometeorological extremes that occurred over that period. The basic methodology consisted in combining information from different types of anthropogenic sources (descriptive and instrumental) and natural sources (tree rings and geothermal holes), so as to develop climate change models of the past. The data collected were stored in a digital database, which can be searched by source, date, location and type of event. This database, which will be made publically available soon, contains about 3500 weather/climate-related records, which have begun to be studied, processed and published. Following this seminal project, other initiatives have taken place in Portugal in the area of Historical Climatology, namely a PhD project, still in progress, which also aims at the study of climatic variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in Northern Portugal, in the period prior to the creation of the organized network of meteorological stations and the systematization of instrumental observations (19th century). Therefore, in this communication we intend to present some of the documentary sources (private and institutional) used in the course of these projects. We will analyze the potentialities and limitations of a wide range of documentary sources, such as annals, memoirs and chronicles, daily weather reports, newspapers, book of judgments, economic records, correspondence, among others, and examine the various types of meteorological information we can from each of them, as well as the care to be taken in their use. Keywords: Modern Period, archive sources, climatic variations, hydrometeorological extremes, Portugal.
Evaluation of LTPP Climatic Data for Use in Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) Calibration and Other Pavement Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-02-01

This TechBrief describes evaluating the use of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product as an alternative climatic data source for the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) and other transporta...
Millennial-Scale Temperature Change Velocity in the Continental Northern Neotropics

PubMed Central

Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

2013-01-01

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years. PMID:24312614
Millennial-scale temperature change velocity in the continental northern Neotropics.

PubMed

Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

2013-01-01

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years.
Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

2014-12-01

Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the Korea Environmental & Industry Technology Institute .
Cold Temperature Effects on Speciated VOC Emissions from Modern GDI Light-Duty Vehicles 1

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, speciated VOC emissions were characterized from three modern GDI light-duty vehicles. The vehicles were tested on a chassis dynamometer housed in a climate-controlled chamber at two temperatures (20 and 72 °F) using the EPA Federal Test Procedure (FTP) and a portio...
Climate change and cotton production in modern farming systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton is used every day in the form of clothing made from cotton fiber and products made from cotton-seed oil. Wild ancestors of cotton are found in arid regions, often with high daytime temperatures and cool nights, and are naturally adapted to surviving long periods of hot dry weather. Modern cul...
Schools in a Learning Society: New Purposes and Modalities of Learning in Late Modern Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strain, Michael

2000-01-01

Examines limitations inherent in the learning society debate, highlighting public schooling's role; individualization and fears of uselessness in a modernized, informationalized world; and effects of globalization on learning. A climate of risk and consumerism requires reflexive construction of a "self" on a lifelong learning journey.…
Climatic controls on the pace of glacier erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, Michele; Hallet, Bernard; Rignot, Eric; Mouginot, Jeremie; Wellner, Julia; Love, Katherine

2016-04-01

Mountain ranges worldwide have undergone large-scale modification due the erosive action of ice, yet the mechanisms that control the timing of this modification and the rate by which ice erodes remain poorly understood. Available data report a wide range of erosion rates from individual ice masses over varying timescales, suggesting that modern erosion rates exceed orogenic rates by 2-3 orders of magnitude. These modern rates are presumed to be due to dynamic acceleration of the ice masses during deglaciation and retreat. Recent numerical models have focused on replicating the processes that produce the geomorphic signatures of glacial landscapes. Central to these models is a simple quantitative index that relates erosion rate to ice dynamics and to climate. To provide such an index, we examined explicitly the factors controlling modern glacier erosion rates across climatic regimes. Holding tectonic history, bedrock lithology and glacier hypsometries relatively constant across a latitudinal transect from Patagonia to the Antarctic Peninsula, we find that modern, basin-averaged erosion rates vary by three orders of magnitude, from 1->10 mm yr-1 for temperate tidewater glaciers to 0.01-<0.1 mm yr-1 for polar outlet glaciers, largely as a function of temperature and basal thermal regime. Erosion rates also increase non-linearly with both the sliding speed and the ice flux through the ELA, in accord with theory. The general relationship between ice dynamics and erosion suggests that the erosion rate scales non-linearly with basal sliding speed, with an exponent n ≈ 2-2.62. Notably, erosion rates decrease by over two orders of magnitude between temperate and polar glaciers with similar ice discharge rates. The difference in erosion rates between temperate and colder glaciers of similar shape and size is primarily related to the abundance of meltwater accessing the bed. Since all glaciers worldwide have experienced colder than current climatic conditions, the 100-fold decrease in long-term relative to modern erosion rates may in part reflect the temporal averaging of warm and cold-based conditions over the lifecycle of these glaciers. Higher temperatures and precipitation rates at the end of glaciations favor the production of water from rainfall, surface melting and internal melting, which promotes sliding, erosion and sediment production and evacuation from under the ice. Hence, climatic variation, more than the extent of ice cover or ice volume, controls the pace at which glaciers shape mountains.
Data-mining analysis of the global distribution of soil carbon in observational databases and Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Shoji; Nanko, Kazuki; Ťupek, Boris; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2017-03-01

Future climate change will dramatically change the carbon balance in the soil, and this change will affect the terrestrial carbon stock and the climate itself. Earth system models (ESMs) are used to understand the current climate and to project future climate conditions, but the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock simulated by ESMs and those of observational databases are not well correlated when the two are compared at fine grid scales. However, the specific key processes and factors, as well as the relationships among these factors that govern the SOC stock, remain unclear; the inclusion of such missing information would improve the agreement between modeled and observational data. In this study, we sought to identify the influential factors that govern global SOC distribution in observational databases, as well as those simulated by ESMs. We used a data-mining (machine-learning) (boosted regression trees - BRT) scheme to identify the factors affecting the SOC stock. We applied BRT scheme to three observational databases and 15 ESM outputs from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examined the effects of 13 variables/factors categorized into five groups (climate, soil property, topography, vegetation, and land-use history). Globally, the contributions of mean annual temperature, clay content, carbon-to-nitrogen (CN) ratio, wetland ratio, and land cover were high in observational databases, whereas the contributions of the mean annual temperature, land cover, and net primary productivity (NPP) were predominant in the SOC distribution in ESMs. A comparison of the influential factors at a global scale revealed that the most distinct differences between the SOCs from the observational databases and ESMs were the low clay content and CN ratio contributions, and the high NPP contribution in the ESMs. The results of this study will aid in identifying the causes of the current mismatches between observational SOC databases and ESM outputs and improve the modeling of terrestrial carbon dynamics in ESMs. This study also reveals how a data-mining algorithm can be used to assess model outputs.
The historic surface ozone record, 1896-1975, and its relation to modern measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galbally, I. E.; Tarasick, D. W.; Stähelin, J.; Wallington, T. J.; Steinbacher, M.; Schultz, M.; Cooper, O. R.

2017-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is a greenhouse gas, a key component of atmospheric chemistry, and is detrimental to human health and plant productivity. The historic surface ozone record 1896-1975 has been constructed from measurements selected for (a) instrumentation whose ozone response can be traced to modern tropospheric ozone measurement standards, (b) samples taken when there is low probability of chemical interference and (c) sampling locations, heights and times when atmospheric mixing will minimise vertical gradients of ozone in the planetary boundary layer above and around the measurement location. Early measurements with the Schönbein filter paper technique cannot be related to modern methods with any degree of confidence. The potassium iodide-arsenite technique used at Montsouris for 1876-1910 is valid for measuring ozone; however, due to the presence of the interfering gases sulfur dioxide, ammonia and nitrogen oxides, the measured ozone concentrations are not representative of the regional atmosphere. The use of these data sets for trend analyses is not recommended. In total, 58 acceptable sets of measurements are currently identified, commencing in Europe in 1896, Greenland in 1932 and globally by the late 1950's. Between 1896 and 1944 there were 21 studies (median duration 5 days) with a median mole fraction of 23 nmol mol-1 (range of study averages 15-62 nmol mol-1). Between 1950 and 1975 there were 37 studies (median duration approx. 21 months) with a median mole fraction of 22 nmol mol-1 (range of study averages 13-49 nmol mol-1), all measured under conditions likely to give ozone mole fractions similar to those in the planetary boundary layer. These time series are matched with modern measurements from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) Ozone Database and used to examine changes between the historic and modern observations. These historic ozone levels are higher than previously accepted for surface ozone in the late 19th early 20th Century. This historic surface ozone analysis provides a new test for historical reconstructions by Climate-Chemistry models.
The ICARDA agro-climate tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A Visual Basic agro-climate application by climatologists at the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas and the U.S. Department of Agriculture is described here. The database from which the application derives climate information consists of weather generator parameters der...
The ICARDA Agro-Climate Tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A Visual Basic agro-climate application developed by climatologists at the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas and the U.S. Department of Agriculture is described here. The database from which the application derives climate information consists of weather generator param...
The Assessment of School Climate: Review and Appraisal of Published Student-Report Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramelow, Daniela; Currie, Dorothy; Felder-Puig, Rosemarie

2015-01-01

School climate measurement is a long-standing topic in educational research. This review article provides an overview and appraisal of school climate measures published between 2003 and 2013 in scientific journals. A search for published school climate instruments for secondary school students was made in three databases. Twelve articles meeting…
Freshwater gastropods of Neogene and Quaternary lake systems of Europe - state of the art and outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, Thomas A.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Mandic, Oleg; Kroh, Andreas

2013-04-01

Globally, about 4000 extant species of freshwater gastropod species have been described. In contrast, only 225 species are listed by MollBase2012 for North- and Central Europe. Many of these are rare species, limited to certain springs and in fact the typical diversity of gastropods in lakes of North and Central Europe is much lower. The high number is boosted by several highly speciose endemic radiations in long-lived ancient lakes, which are hotspots for biodiversity. These long-lived ancient lakes provide key examples for understanding evolutionary processes and therefore are intensively studied. During the Neogene, Europe's geodynamic history gave rise to several such long-lived lakes with conspicuous endemic radiations. However, these lacustrine systems are rare today as well as in the past compared to the enormous numbers of "normal" lakes. Most extant European lakes are mainly results of the Ice Ages and are due to their geologically temporary nature largely confined to the Pleistocene-Holocene. Also deposits of streams, springs, and groundwater, which today are inhabited by species-rich gastropod assemblages, are rarely preserved. Thus, the pre-Quaternary lacustrine record is biased towards long-lived systems. Apart from few general overviews precise studies on the γ-diversities of the post-Oligocene European lake systems and the shifting biodiversity in European freshwater systems through space and time are entirely missing. Even for the modern faunas, literature on large-scale freshwater gastropod diversity in extant lakes is scarce and lacks a statistical approach. Building upon a great amount of existing literature, a new project will provide the first detailed assessment of the composition of European freshwater gastropods during the Neogene and Quaternary at species, genus and family levels, with emphasis on lake faunas. The γ-diversity of several hundred modern and fossil European lakes will be evaluated. Data will be made available permanently for the public via the FreshGEN-database (Freshwater Gastropods of the European Neogene). The most important topics to be tackled based on the data are to search for factors, which explain the γ-diversities through time and to look for geographic gradients in species richness and/or faunal composition. Diversity data and inter-lake comparison will allow estimating endemism rates and quantitatively defining biodiversity hotspots in present and past lakes. Shells-sizes of all taxa will be evaluated to search for general patterns and to define phases of conspicuous "gigantism". The well resolved climate history of Europe during the last 23 million years will be a frame for linking species- and supraspecific compositions with climatic trends and events. Ideally, the project will shed light on the origin of modern lake faunas by the intense cooperation between zoologists and paleontologists. A major aim is to map and define a statistics-based Pan-European biogeography and palaeobiogeography of Neogene to Quaternary freshwater systems. Once established, this database will be open for geographic and/or stratigraphic expansion.
Development of expert systems for analyzing electronic documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeer Yassin, Al-Azzawi; Shidlovskiy, S.; Jamal, A. A.

2018-05-01

The paper analyses a Database Management System (DBMS). Expert systems, Databases, and database technology have become an essential component of everyday life in the modern society. As databases are widely used in every organization with a computer system, data resource control and data management are very important [1]. DBMS is the most significant tool developed to serve multiple users in a database environment consisting of programs that enable users to create and maintain a database. This paper focuses on development of a database management system for General Directorate for education of Diyala in Iraq (GDED) using Clips, java Net-beans and Alfresco and system components, which were previously developed in Tomsk State University at the Faculty of Innovative Technology.
The impact of pCO2 and climate on D/H and 13C/12C fractionation of higher-plant biomarkers: Implications for paleoclimate and paleoelevation reconstruction during global warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hren, M. T.; Tipple, B. J.; Pagani, M.

2012-12-01

Stable hydrogen isotope compositions (D/H) of plant biomarkers record the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf water at the time of plant growth. However, the magnitude of the apparent hydrogen isotope fractionation between biomarkers and precipitation can vary due to soil- or leaf-water evaporation or differing water-use strategies. As a result, climate-induced changes in soil- or leaf-water evaporation rates and/or changes in plant assemblages during periods of global warming and high atmospheric CO2 could impact apparent carbon and hydrogen isotope fractionations. We measured hydrogen and carbon isotope ratios of long-carbon chain n-alkanes from modern and ~50 million year old fossil leaves preserved in paleo-Sierra Nevada riverine sediments to determine how climate and ecosystem differences during a period of extremely high pCO2 impact the magnitude and variability of D/H and 13C/12C ratios of leaf-waxes across a topographic gradient. δDalkanes (nC27 to nC31) of individual fossil and modern leaves decrease systematically across the topographic gradient and follow the change in the D/H of precipitation due to orographic lifting and continuous rainout. Using estimated values of Eocene δDprecip at the Pacific margin (-43 to -61‰), apparent fractionations (ɛalkane - precip) for Eocene angiosperm trees are similar to that seen for modern, humid environments (~ -106 to -124‰ ±10‰ 1σ), and more negative than observed in modern sun-exposed leaves in the Sierra Nevada (-96 to -102‰) or soils (-87 to -92‰). Single site variability in leaf-wax δD from individual fossil angiosperms can exceed 20‰, but is considerably smaller than observed for modern, mixed angiosperm/gymnosperm forests of the seasonally dry Sierra Nevada range. δ13Calkane values show little or no systematic variation across the range. However, carbon isotope discrimination in ancient and modern leaves is similar, suggesting strong climatic and weak pCO2 controls on D/H and 13C/12C fractionation. Site average δDalkane of multiple leaves closely mirrors bulk sediment δD values and suggests that the isotopic composition of bulk sediments provides a more robust record of local environmental and hydrologic conditions than analyses of biomarkers from individual leaves.
Intrusion Detection in Database Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javidi, Mohammad M.; Sohrabi, Mina; Rafsanjani, Marjan Kuchaki

Data represent today a valuable asset for organizations and companies and must be protected. Ensuring the security and privacy of data assets is a crucial and very difficult problem in our modern networked world. Despite the necessity of protecting information stored in database systems (DBS), existing security models are insufficient to prevent misuse, especially insider abuse by legitimate users. One mechanism to safeguard the information in these databases is to use an intrusion detection system (IDS). The purpose of Intrusion detection in database systems is to detect transactions that access data without permission. In this paper several database Intrusion detection approaches are evaluated.
The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

2010-12-01

Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda. Project results can also inform numerous other ongoing database efforts connected to the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change.

Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining in Iran's Climatic Researches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Mostafa

2013-04-01

Advances in measurement technology and data collection is the database gets larger. Large databases require powerful tools for analysis data. Iterative process of acquiring knowledge from information obtained from data processing is done in various forms in all scientific fields. However, when the data volume large, and many of the problems the Traditional methods cannot respond. in the recent years, use of databases in various scientific fields, especially atmospheric databases in climatology expanded. in addition, increases in the amount of data generated by the climate models is a challenge for analysis of it for extraction of hidden pattern and knowledge. The approach to this problem has been made in recent years uses the process of knowledge discovery and data mining techniques with the use of the concepts of machine learning, artificial intelligence and expert (professional) systems is overall performance. Data manning is analytically process for manning in massive volume data. The ultimate goal of data mining is access to information and finally knowledge. climatology is a part of science that uses variety and massive volume data. Goal of the climate data manning is Achieve to information from variety and massive atmospheric and non-atmospheric data. in fact, Knowledge Discovery performs these activities in a logical and predetermined and almost automatic process. The goal of this research is study of uses knowledge Discovery and data mining technique in Iranian climate research. For Achieve This goal, study content (descriptive) analysis and classify base method and issue. The result shown that in climatic research of Iran most clustering, k-means and wards applied and in terms of issues precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns most introduced. Although several studies in geography and climate issues with statistical techniques such as clustering and pattern extraction is done, Due to the nature of statistics and data mining, but cannot say for internal climate studies in data mining and knowledge discovery techniques are used. However, it is necessary to use the KDD Approach and DM techniques in the climatic studies, specific interpreter of climate modeling result.
Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Pan, Yefeng; Li, Liming; Jiang, Xun; Li, Gan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Xinyue; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2017-01-01

The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era. PMID:28117324
Pollen-climate relationships in time (9 ka, 6 ka, 0 ka) and space (upland vs. lowland) in eastern continental Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fang; Cao, Xianyong; Dallmeyer, Anne; Zhao, Yan; Ni, Jian; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-01-01

Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation-climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mtwa) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen-climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of Pann compared with Mtwa for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of Pann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate-tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation-climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen-climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation-climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.
CerealsDB 3.0: expansion of resources and data integration.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Paul A; Winfield, Mark O; Barker, Gary L A; Tyrrell, Simon; Bian, Xingdong; Allen, Alexandra M; Burridge, Amanda; Coghill, Jane A; Waterfall, Christy; Caccamo, Mario; Davey, Robert P; Edwards, Keith J

2016-06-24

The increase in human populations around the world has put pressure on resources, and as a consequence food security has become an important challenge for the 21st century. Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is one of the most important crops in human and livestock diets, and the development of wheat varieties that produce higher yields, combined with increased resistance to pests and resilience to changes in climate, has meant that wheat breeding has become an important focus of scientific research. In an attempt to facilitate these improvements in wheat, plant breeders have employed molecular tools to help them identify genes for important agronomic traits that can be bred into new varieties. Modern molecular techniques have ensured that the rapid and inexpensive characterisation of SNP markers and their validation with modern genotyping methods has produced a valuable resource that can be used in marker assisted selection. CerealsDB was created as a means of quickly disseminating this information to breeders and researchers around the globe. CerealsDB version 3.0 is an online resource that contains a wide range of genomic datasets for wheat that will assist plant breeders and scientists to select the most appropriate markers for use in marker assisted selection. CerealsDB includes a database which currently contains in excess of a million putative varietal SNPs, of which several hundreds of thousands have been experimentally validated. In addition, CerealsDB also contains new data on functional SNPs predicted to have a major effect on protein function and we have constructed a web service to encourage data integration and high-throughput programmatic access. CerealsDB is an open access website that hosts information on SNPs that are considered useful for both plant breeders and research scientists. The recent inclusion of web services designed to federate genomic data resources allows the information on CerealsDB to be more fully integrated with the WheatIS network and other biological databases.
The "Prediflood" database of historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) AD 1035-2013, and its potential applications in flood analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriendos, M.; Ruiz-Bellet, J. L.; Tuset, J.; Mazón, J.; Balasch, J. C.; Pino, D.; Ayala, J. L.

2014-07-01

"Prediflood" is a database of historical floods occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), between 10th Century and 21th Century. More than 2700 flood cases are catalogued, and more than 1100 flood events. This database contains information acquired under modern historiographical criteria and it is, therefore, apt to be used in multidisciplinary flood analysis techniques, as meteorological or hydraullic reconstructions.
Teaching Earth Signals Analysis Using the Java-DSP Earth Systems Edition: Modern and Past Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramamurthy, Karthikeyan Natesan; Hinnov, Linda A.; Spanias, Andreas S.

2014-01-01

Modern data collection in the Earth Sciences has propelled the need for understanding signal processing and time-series analysis techniques. However, there is an educational disconnect in the lack of instruction of time-series analysis techniques in many Earth Science academic departments. Furthermore, there are no platform-independent freeware…
Pollen-inferred quantitative reconstructions of Holocene land-cover in NW Europe for the evaluation of past climate-vegetation feedbacks - methods and first maps of the cover of plant functional types at 6000, 3000, 600, 200 and 0 BP.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trondman, Anna-Kari; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Mazier, Florence; Fyfe, Ralph; Nielsen, Anne-Birgitte; Leydet, Michelle; Members, Landclim

2010-05-01

Quantitative estimates of land-cover changes during the Holocene have become increasingly important for a better understanding of the earth surface-atmosphere feedbacks, and refining climate models. The LANDCLIM project and research network (sponsored by the Swedish [VR] and Nordic [NordForsk] Research Councils) (see Gaillard et al., CL 1.22) have the objective to quantify human-induced changes in regional land-cover in NW Europe during the Holocene, and to evaluate the effects of these changes on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. We use the REVEALS model to estimate the percentage cover of groups of taxa (plant functional types, PFTs) from fossil pollen data. The past cover of PFTs will be compared with the outputs of the LPJ-GUESS, a widely-used dynamic vegetation model, and applied as an alternative to the simulated LPG-GUESS vegetation to run the regional climate model RCA3 for the past. The REVEALS model requires raw pollen counts, site radius, pollen productivity estimates (PPEs), and fall speed of pollen (FS). PPEs and FS are available for 34 taxa in the study area. The study area is divided between four principle investigators within the LANDCLIM project. A protocol was established in order to standardize the strategy and methods applied to prepare the pollen data and run REVEALS. It includes instructions for both data contributors and users on 1) chronologies, 2) pollen taxa and harmonization with the PPEs available, and 3) number of pollen taxa and datasets of PPEs to use in alternative test runs. New age-depth models were performed for several records to ensure consistency in the chronologies. The pollen records are selected from pollen databases, i.e. the European Pollen Database (EPD), the Czech Pollen Database (PALYCZ) and the Alpine Pollen Database (ALPDABA), as well as obtained directly from the authors. Using the pollen records of the Czech Pollen Database, the effect on the REVEALS estimates of 1) basin type (lakes or bogs), 2) number of pollen taxa, 3) PPEs dataset, and 4) number of dates per record used to establish the chronology (≥3 or ≥5) was tested (see Mazier et al. CL 1.21). Following the results of these tests, the first maps are based on REVEALS runs using pollen records from both lakes and bogs with ≥3 dates, 24 taxa (entomophilous taxa excluded), and the mean of all PPEs available in the study area. The maps are produced for 10 PFTs (LPJ-GUESS) and 3 PFTs (RCA3) at a spatial resolution of 1o x 1o for five selected time windows of the Holocene with contrasting human-induced land-cover (0-100 cal BP, 100-350 cal BP, 350-700 cal BP, 2700-3200 cal BP and 5700-6200 cal BP). The maps of PFTs show significant changes in the degree of human-induced vegetation openness through the Holocene over most of the study area. There are large discrepancies between these first quantitative land-cover maps and earlier maps based on pollen data and other methods such as biomization and the modern analogue approach. * The following LANDCLIM members are acknowledged for providing pollen records and for help with pollen databases: Teija Alenius (Espoo), Heather Almquist-Jacobson (Montana, USA), Lena Barnekow and Thomas Persson (Lund), Jonas Bergman (Stockholm), Anne Bjune and John Birks (Bergen), Thomas Giesecke (Göttingen), Rixt de Jong (Bern), Mihkel Kangur and Tiiuu Koff (Tallinn), Malgorzata Latalowa (Gdansk), Ann-Marie Robertsson (Stockholm), Ulf Segerström and Henrik von Stedingk (Umeå), Heikki Seppä (Helsinki). Sugita, S. 2007. The Holocene, 17, 229-241.
The case for systems thinking about climate change and mental health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berry, Helen L.; Waite, Thomas D.; Dear, Keith B. G.; Capon, Anthony G.; Murray, Virginia

2018-04-01

It is increasingly necessary to quantify the impacts of climate change on populations, and to quantify the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite growing interest in the health effects of climate change, the relationship between mental health and climate change has received little attention in research or policy. Here, we outline current thinking about climate change and mental health, and discuss crucial limitations in modern epidemiology for examining this issue. A systems approach, complemented by a new style of research thinking and leadership, can help align the needs of this emerging field with existing and research policy agendas.
CCDST: A free Canadian climate data scraping tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonifacio, Charmaine; Barchyn, Thomas E.; Hugenholtz, Chris H.; Kienzle, Stefan W.

2015-02-01

In this paper we present a new software tool that automatically fetches, downloads and consolidates climate data from a Web database where the data are contained on multiple Web pages. The tool is called the Canadian Climate Data Scraping Tool (CCDST) and was developed to enhance access and simplify analysis of climate data from Canada's National Climate Data and Information Archive (NCDIA). The CCDST deconstructs a URL for a particular climate station in the NCDIA and then iteratively modifies the date parameters to download large volumes of data, remove individual file headers, and merge data files into one output file. This automated sequence enhances access to climate data by substantially reducing the time needed to manually download data from multiple Web pages. To this end, we present a case study of the temporal dynamics of blowing snow events that resulted in ~3.1 weeks time savings. Without the CCDST, the time involved in manually downloading climate data limits access and restrains researchers and students from exploring climate trends. The tool is coded as a Microsoft Excel macro and is available to researchers and students for free. The main concept and structure of the tool can be modified for other Web databases hosting geophysical data.
Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH4 production in one H sample. Soil chemistry analysis showed that older permafrost, P, had higher pH, lower total nitrogen, ammonium, and organic carbon than younger permafrost, H.
Impacts of the spatial extent of pollen-climate calibration-set on the absolute values, range and trends of reconstructed Holocene precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, X.; Tian, F.; Telford, R.; Ni, J.; Xu, Q.; Chen, F.; Liu, X.; Stebich, M.; Zhao, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2017-12-01

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of past climate variables is a standard palaeoclimatic approach. Despite knowing that the spatial extent of the calibration-set affects the reconstruction result, guidance is lacking as to how to determine a suitable spatial extent of the pollen-climate calibration-set. In this study, past mean annual precipitation (Pann) during the Holocene (since 11.5 cal ka BP) is reconstructed repeatedly for pollen records from Qinghai Lake (36.7°N, 100.5°E; north-east Tibetan Plateau), Gonghai Lake (38.9°N, 112.2°E; north China) and Sihailongwan Lake (42.3°N, 126.6°E; north-east China) using calibration-sets of varying spatial extents extracted from the modern pollen dataset of China and Mongolia (2559 sampling sites and 168 pollen taxa in total). Results indicate that the spatial extent of the calibration-set has a strong impact on model performance, analogue quality and reconstruction diagnostics (absolute value, range, trend, optimum). Generally, these effects are stronger with the modern analogue technique (MAT) than with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). With respect to fossil spectra from northern China, the spatial extent of calibration-sets should be restricted to ca. 1000 km in radius because small-scale calibration-sets (<800 km radius) will likely fail to include enough spatial variation in the modern pollen assemblages to reflect the temporal range shifts during the Holocene, while too broad a scale calibration-set (>1500 km radius) will include taxa with very different pollen-climate relationships. Based on our results we conclude that the optimal calibration-set should 1) cover a reasonably large spatial extent with an even distribution of modern pollen samples; 2) possess good model performance as indicated by cross-validation, high analogue quality, and excellent fit with the target fossil pollen spectra; 3) possess high taxonomic resolution, and 4) obey the modern and past distribution ranges of taxa inferred from palaeo-genetic and macrofossil studies.
Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Experimental Hygrothermal Performance. Cloquet Residential Research Facility Laboratory Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, Louise F.; Harmon, Anna C.

2015-04-09

This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes. NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. These data currently span the periodmore » from November 10, 2012 through May 31, 2014 and are anticipated to be extended through November 2014. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.« less
A commentary on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation stability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gent, Peter R.

2018-02-01

The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean models depends quite strongly on the model formulation, especially the vertical mixing, and whether it is coupled to an atmosphere model. A hysteresis loop in AMOC strength with respect to freshwater forcing has been found in several intermediate complexity climate models and in one fully coupled climate model that has very coarse resolution. Over 40% of modern climate models are in a bistable AMOC state according to the very frequently used simple stability criterion which is based solely on the sign of the AMOC freshwater transport across 33° S. In a recent freshwater hosing experiment in a climate model with an eddy-permitting ocean component, the change in the gyre freshwater transport across 33° S is larger than the AMOC freshwater transport change. This casts very strong doubt on the usefulness of this simple AMOC stability criterion. If a climate model uses large surface flux adjustments, then these adjustments can interfere with the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and strongly change the AMOC stability properties. AMOC can be shut off for many hundreds of years in modern fully coupled climate models if the hosing or carbon dioxide forcing is strong enough. However, in one climate model the AMOC recovers after between 1000 and 1400 years. Recent 1% increasing carbon dioxide runs and RCP8.5 future scenario runs have shown that the AMOC reduction is smaller using an eddy-resolving ocean component than in the comparable standard 1° ocean climate models.
Towards Better Calibration of Modern Palynological Data against Climate: A Case Study in Osaka Bay, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitaba, I.; Nakagawa, T.; McClymont, E.; Dettman, D. L.; Yamada, K.; Takemura, K.; Hyodo, M.

2014-12-01

Many of the difficulties in the pollen fossil-based paleoclimate reconstruction in coastal regions derive from the complex sedimentary processes of the near-shore environment. In order to examine this problem, we carried out pollen analysis of surface sediments collected from 35 sites in Osaka Bay, Japan. Using the biomisation method, the surrounding vegetation was accurately reconstructed at all sites. Applying the modern analogue technique to the same data, however, led to reconstructed temperatures that were lower by ca. 5 deg. C and precipitation amounts higher by ca. 5000 mm than the current sea level climate of the region. The range of reconstructed values was larger than the reconstruction error associated with the method. The principal component analysis shows that the surface pollen variation in Osaka Bay reflects sedimentary processes. This significant error associated with the quantitative climatic reconstruction using pollen data is attributed to the fact that the pollen assemblage is not determined solely by climate but reflects non-climatic influences. The accuracy and precision of climatic reconstruction can be improved significantly by expanding counts of minor taxa. Given this result, we re-examined the reconstructed climate using Osaka Bay palynological record reported in Kitaba et al. (2013). This new method did not significantly alter the overall variation in the reconstructed climate, and thus we conclude that the reconstruction was generally reliable. However, some intervals were strongly affected by depositional environmental change. In these, a climate signal can be extracted by excluding the patterns that arise from coastal sedimentation.
Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K.

2017-07-01

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.
Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.;

2017-01-01

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

Modern limnology of two lakes in the Tibetan Plateau - evidence from in-situ monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Li, X.; Lei, L.; He, Y.; Hou, J.

2013-12-01

The mechanisms of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, known as the Third Pole, receive more and more attention due to its unique geographic location and the influence of multiple climate systems. Among the paleoclimate archives, widespread lakes provide abundant information on past climate changes and have been investigated for decades. Though many high-quality paleolimnological records have been reported in the Tibetan Plateau, little is known about the modern limnological processes in most Tibetan lakes as most lakes are difficult to access and not ready for long-term monitoring. We have installed a series of temperature data logger at different water levels in two Tibetan lakes, Bangong Co and Dagze Co in July 2012 to monitor hourly variability of temperature profile. Bangong Co (33.5°N, 79.8°E, 4245 m asl) is a freshwater lake (salinity ~0.5 g/L) in the westernmost Tibetan Plateau, receiving melt water from mountain glaciers in the basin. Dagze Co (31.9°N, 87.5°E, 4470 m asl) is saline lake (salinity ~15 g/L) in the central Tibetan Plateau, mostly fed by precipitation. In combination with the climate data in the nearby weather stations, we wish to understand the modern limnological processes in the two lakes and their potential effect on the lake biology, sedimentation, and sedimentary biomarkers. Based on the data collected for the first calendar year (Jul 2012 ~ Aug 2013), we anticipate to understand: 1) the influence of climate on the hydrological processes in high elevation lakes; 2) the difference in the metalimnion in meltwater-fed lake (Bangong Co) and precipitation-fed lake (Dagze Co) and their potential effect on the lake biology; 3) the difference in the spring turnover and fall turnover and the effect of meltwater and salinity.
The different climatic response of pedogenic hematite and ferrimagnetic minerals: Evidence from particle-sized modern soils over the Chinese Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xinbo; Hao, Qingzhen; Wang, Luo; Oldfield, Frank; Bloemendal, Jan; Deng, Chenglong; Song, Yang; Ge, Junyi; Wu, Haibin; Xu, Bing; Li, Fengjiang; Han, Long; Fu, Yu; Guo, Zhengtang

2018-01-01

In recent years, increasing interest in loess studies has focused on qualitative and quantitative paleoclimatic reconstruction using the imperfect antiferromagnetic mineral hematite. However, the linkage between the hematite formation and climatic variables remains controversial. Here we present the results of a comprehensive investigation of the magnetic properties and statistical analysis of a suite of clay and silt fractions of modern soil samples from 179 sites across the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) and adjacent regions. Our objective was to clarify the relationships between modern climatic variables and pedogenic hematite, as well as pedogenic ferrimagnetic minerals. First-order reversal curve measurements were also conducted on representative particle-sized subsamples from a N-S transect to understand the differences in magnetic mineralogy between the two fractions. Our results show that pipette extraction separates the fine-grained superparamagnetic (SP) and most of the single-domain (SD) magnetic grains into the clay fraction, and that the remaining silt fraction displays the magnetic properties of coarse pseudo-single domain (PSD) or a mixture of multidomain (MD)/PSD and a few SD particles. Only the pedogenic clay fraction shows a strong correlation with climatic variables. The application of redundancy analysis helps to distinguish the climate variables controlling the formation of ferrimagnetic minerals and hematite during pedogenesis. On the CLP, pedogenic ferrimagnetic minerals are sensitive to mean annual precipitation, while pedogenic hematite formation is preferentially dependent on mean annual temperature. The confirmation of the temperature-dependent nature of hematite on the CLP provides a new possibility for quantitatively reconstructing the paleotemperature history of Chinese loess/paleosol sequences.
The Different Climatic Response of Pedogenic Hematite and Ferrimagnetic Minerals: Evidence from Particle-Sized Modern Soils over the Chinese Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, X.; Hao, Q.; Luo, W.; Oldfield, F.; Bloemendal, J.; Deng, C.; Song, Y.; Ge, J.; Wu, H.; Xu, B.; Li, F.; Han, L.; Fu, Y.; Guo, Z.

2017-12-01

In recent years, increasing interest in loess studies has focused on qualitative and quantitative paleoclimatic reconstruction using the imperfect antiferromagnetic mineral hematite. However, the linkage between the hematite formation and climatic variables remains controversial. Here we present the results of a comprehensive investigation of the magnetic properties and statistical analysis of a suite of clay and silt fractions of modern soil samples from 179 sites across the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) and adjacent regions. Our objective was to clarify the relationships between modern climatic variables and pedogenic hematite, as well as pedogenic ferrimagnetic minerals. First-order reversal curve measurements were also conducted on representative particle-sized subsamples from a N-S transect to understand the differences in magnetic mineralogy between the two fractions. Our results show that pipette extraction separates the fine-grained superparamagnetic (SP) and most of the single-domain (SD) magnetic grains into the clay fraction, and that the remaining silt fraction displays the magnetic properties of coarse pseudo-single domain (PSD) or a mixture of multidomain (MD)/PSD and a few SD particles. Only the pedogenic clay fraction shows a strong correlation with climatic variables. The application of redundancy analysis helps to distinguish the climate variables controlling the formation of ferrimagnetic minerals and hematite during pedogenesis. On the CLP, pedogenic ferrimagnetic minerals are sensitive to mean annual precipitation, while pedogenic hematite formation is preferentially dependent on mean annual temperature. The confirmation of the temperature-dependent nature of hematite on the CLP provides a new possibility for quantitatively reconstructing the paleotemperature history of Chinese loess/paleosol sequences.
Hands-on approach to teaching Earth system sciences using a information-computational web-GIS portal "Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Gorbatenko, Valentina; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

A problem of making education relevant to the workplace tasks is a key problem of higher education because old-school training programs are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing situation in the professional field of environmental sciences. A joint group of specialists from Tomsk State University and Siberian center for Environmental research and Training/IMCES SB RAS developed several new courses for students of "Climatology" and "Meteorology" specialties, which comprises theoretical knowledge from up-to-date environmental sciences with practical tasks. To organize the educational process we use an open-source course management system Moodle (www.moodle.org). It gave us an opportunity to combine text and multimedia in a theoretical part of educational courses. The hands-on approach is realized through development of innovative trainings which are performed within the information-computational platform "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/) using web GIS tools. These trainings contain practical tasks on climate modeling and climate changes assessment and analysis and should be performed using typical tools which are usually used by scientists performing such kind of research. Thus, students are engaged in n the use of modern tools of the geophysical data analysis and it cultivates dynamic of their professional learning. The hands-on approach can help us to fill in this gap because it is the only approach that offers experience, increases students involvement, advance the use of modern information and communication tools. The courses are implemented at Tomsk State University and help forming modern curriculum in Earth system science area. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants numbers 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

Insights on drought and long-term climatic trends: Retrospective analyses of RMA cause of loss data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A modern trend among federal agencies, funding streams, and research projects involves the synthesis of existing data to increase the overall collective value and meaning of such knowledge. The creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs follows this line of thought with infor...
Insights on drought and long-term climatic trends: Retrospective analyses of crop insurance data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A modern trend among federal agencies, funding streams, and research projects involves the synthesis of existing data to increase the overall collective value and meaning of such knowledge. The creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs follows this line of thought with infor...
The Rise and Fall of Andean Empires: El Nino History Lessons.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wright, Kenneth R.

2000-01-01

Provides information on El Nino and the methods for investigating ancient climate record. Traces the rise and fall of the Andean empires focusing on the climatic forces that each empire (Tiwanaku, Wari, Moche, and Inca) endured. States that modern societies should learn from the experiences of these ancient civilizations. (CMK)
Seasonal temperature and precipitation recorded in the intra-annual oxygen isotope pattern of meteoric water and tree-ring cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Brian A.; Jahren, A. Hope

2015-10-01

Modern and ancient wood is a valuable terrestrial record of carbon ultimately derived from the atmosphere and oxygen inherited from local meteoric water. Many modern and fossil wood specimens display rings sufficiently thick for intra-annual sampling, and analytical techniques are rapidly improving to allow for precise carbon and oxygen isotope measurements on very small samples, yielding unprecedented resolution of seasonal isotope records. However, the interpretation of these records across diverse environments has been problematic because a unifying model for the quantitative interpretation of seasonal climate parameters from oxygen isotopes in wood is lacking. Towards such a model, we compiled a dataset of intra-ring oxygen isotope measurements on modern wood cellulose (δ18Ocell) from 33 globally distributed sites. Five of these sites represent original data produced for this study, while the data for the other 28 sites were taken from the literature. We defined the intra-annual change in oxygen isotope value of wood cellulose [Δ(δ18Ocell)] as the difference between the maximum and minimum δ18Ocell values determined within the ring. Then, using the monthly-resolved dataset of the oxygen isotope composition of meteoric water (δ18OMW) provided by the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation database, we quantified the empirical relationship between the intra-annual change in meteoric water [Δ(δ18OMW)] and Δ(δ18Ocell). We then used monthly-resolved datasets of temperature and precipitation to develop a global relationship between Δ(δ18OMW) and maximum/minimum monthly temperatures and winter/summer precipitation amounts. By combining these relationships we produced a single equation that explains much of the variability in the intra-ring δ18Ocell signal through only changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation amount (R2 = 0.82). We show how our recent model that quantifies seasonal precipitation from intra-ring carbon isotope profiles can be incorporated into the oxygen model above in order to separately quantify both seasonal temperature and seasonal precipitation. Determination of seasonal climate variation using high-resolution isotopes in tree-ring records makes possible a new understanding of the seasonal fluctuations that control the environmental conditions to which organisms are subject, both during recent history and in the geologic past.
Regional Design Approach in Designing Climatic Responsive Administrative Building in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haja Bava Mohidin, Hazrina Binti; Ismail, Alice Sabrina

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to explicate on the study of modern administrative building in Malaysia which portrays regional design approach that conforms to the local context and climate by reviewing two case studies; Perdana Putra (1999) and former Prime Minister's Office (1967). This paper is significant because the country's stature and political statement was symbolized by administrative building as a national icon. In other words, it is also viewed as a cultural object that is closely tied to a particular social context and nation historical moment. Administrative building, therefore, may exhibit various meanings. This paper uses structuralism paradigm and semiotic principles as a methodological approach. This paper is of importance for practicing architects and society in the future as it offers new knowledge and understanding in identifying the suitable climatic consideration that may reflect regionalist design approach in modern administrative building. These elements then may be adopted in designing public buildings in the future with regional values that are important for expressing national culture to symbolize the identity of place and society as well as responsive to climate change.
Late Holocene climate variability from Lake Pupuke maar, Auckland, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Striewski, B.; Shulmeister, J.; Augustinus, P. C.; Soderholm, J.

2013-10-01

Spectral analyses of quasi-annual organo-diatomaceous laminae couplets in an Auckland maar lake indicate brief (sub-decadal scale) episodes with strong spectral power and long periods of weak to no spectral power between c. 1700 to c. 550 cal. yr BP. Laminae couplet thickness appears to be a function of changes in wind flow over the basin, with enhanced wind flow deepening the mixing zone and providing additional nutrients for laminae formation. Aeolian dust from Australia amplifies the wind signal. Spectral signals in the high power episodes are focused in <4 years and 6-8 years windows. These are consistent with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicity. This climate system is known to play a major role in the modern Auckland climate whereby strongly negative (positive) ENSO are associated with enhanced (diminished) SW airflow over Auckland. ENSO events interact in the modern climate and the spectral results indicate that this is the case when spectral power is strong in the laminae. These results highlight strong but intermittent ENSO activity between 600 and 1400 cal. yr BP.
Stable isotope study of fluid inclusions in fluorite from Idaho: implications for continental climates during the Eocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seal, R.R.; Rye, R.O.

1993-01-01

Isotopic studies of fluid inclusions from meteoric water-dominated epithermal ore deposits offer a unique opportunity to study paleoclimates because the fluids can provide direct samples of ancient waters. Fluorite-hosted fluid inclusions from the Eocene (51-50 Ma) epithermal deposits of the Bayhorse mining district, have low salinities and low to moderate homogenization temperatures indicating meteoric origins for the fluids. Oxygen and hydrogen isotope data on inclusion fluids are almost identical to those of modern meteoric waters in the area. The equivalence of the isotope composition of the Eocene inclusion fluids and modern meteoric waters indicates that the Eocene climatic conditions were similar to those today. -from Authors
NCAR Johns Hopkins/CDC Climate and Health Summer Institute

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mearns, Linda O.

2005-01-01

The interactions between climate and health are rife with complexity and present many conceptual and methodological challenges. Possible effects of climate change on health are considered some of the most sensitive impacts of climate change and are a high priority for policy-makers and the public. As a first step toward improving tlit: quality of research, we developed a Climate and Health Workshop (Institute), geared toward teaching students various aspects of how to conduct integrated climate and health research. At the workshop scientists presented selected case studies of climate and health (e.g., heat mortality, vector-borne diseases), thus demonstrating a subset of key analytical tools and databases most useful to researchers in this field. Key research gaps in this research area were discussed. In this six-day Institute (21-28 July 2004, Boulder, Colorado), health scientists and students benefited from lectures and hands-on tools taught by top NCAR scientists. The attendees learned about health databases and epidemiologic methods from leading health scientists from CDC, Johns Hopkins, and other institutions from around the globe.
Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.
How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates the quantitative interpretation of ice core signals but also makes the stable ice isotope signal a more robust regional indicator of climate, speakers noted. Meeting participants agreed that to further our understanding of these relationships, we need more process-focused field and laboratory campaigns.
Quantitative reconstruction of cross-sectional dimensions and hydrological parameters of gravelly fluvial channels developed in a forearc basin setting under a temperate climatic condition, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibata, Kenichiro; Adhiperdana, Billy G.; Ito, Makoto

2018-01-01

Reconstructions of the dimensions and hydrological features of ancient fluvial channels, such as bankfull depth, bankfull width, and water discharges, have used empirical equations developed from compiled data-sets, mainly from modern meandering rivers, in various tectonic and climatic settings. However, the application of the proposed empirical equations to an ancient fluvial succession should be carefully examined with respect to the tectonic and climatic settings of the objective deposits. In this study, we developed empirical relationships among the mean bankfull channel depth, bankfull channel depth, drainage area, bankfull channel width, mean discharge, and bankfull discharge using data from 24 observation sites of modern gravelly rivers in the Kanto region, central Japan. Some of the equations among these parameters are different from those proposed by previous studies. The discrepancies are considered to reflect tectonic and climatic settings of the present river systems, which are characterized by relatively steeper valley slope, active supply of volcaniclastic sediments, and seasonal precipitation in the Kanto region. The empirical relationships derived from the present study can be applied to modern and ancient gravelly fluvial channels with multiple and alternate bars, developed in convergent margin settings under a temperate climatic condition. The developed empirical equations were applied to a transgressive gravelly fluvial succession of the Paleogene Iwaki Formation, Northeast Japan as a case study. Stratigraphic thicknesses of bar deposits were used for estimation of the bankfull channel depth. In addition, some other geomorphological and hydrological parameters were calculated using the empirical equations developed by the present study. The results indicate that the Iwaki Formation fluvial deposits were formed by a fluvial system that was represented by the dimensions and discharges of channels similar to those of the middle to lower reaches of the modern Kuji River, northern Kanto region. In addition, no distinct temporal changes in paleochannel dimensions and discharges were observed in an overall transgressive Iwaki Formation fluvial system. This implies that a rise in relative sea level did not affect the paleochannel dimensions within a sequence stratigraphic framework.
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Hill, D.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.

2011-01-01

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.
EPAUS9R - An Energy Systems Database for use with the Market Allocation (MARKAL) Model

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s MARKAL energy system databases estimate future-year technology dispersals and associated emissions. These databases are valuable tools for exploring a variety of future scenarios for the U.S. energy-production systems that can impact climate change c
The NorWeST Stream Temperature Database, Model, and Climate Scenarios for the Northwest U.S. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaak, D.; Wenger, S.; Peterson, E.; Ver Hoef, J.; Luce, C.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kershner, J.; Dunham, J.; Nagel, D.; Roper, B.

2013-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is warming the Earth's rivers and streams and threatens significant changes to aquatic biodiversity. Effective threat response will require prioritization of limited conservation resources and coordinated interagency efforts guided by accurate information about climate, and climate change, at scales relevant to the distributions of species across landscapes. Here, we describe the NorWeST (i.e., NorthWest Stream Temperature) project to develop a comprehensive interagency stream temperature database and high-resolution climate scenarios across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (~400,000 stream kilometers). The NorWeST database consists of stream temperature data contributed by >60 state, federal, tribal, and private resource agencies and may be the largest of its kind in the world (>45,000,000 hourly temperature recordings at >15,000 unique monitoring sites). These data are being used with spatial statistical network models to accurately downscale (R2 = 90%; RMSE < 1 C) global climate patterns to all perennially flowing reaches within river networks at 1-kilometer resolution. Historic stream temperature scenarios are developed using air temperature data from RegCM3 runs for the NCEP historical reanalysis and future scenarios (2040s and 2080s) are developed by applying bias corrected air temperature and discharge anomalies from ensemble climate and hydrology model runs for A1B and A2 warming trajectories. At present, stream temperature climate scenarios have been developed for 230,000 stream kilometers across Idaho and western Montana using data from more than 7,000 monitoring sites. The raw temperature data and stream climate scenarios are made available as ArcGIS geospatial products for download through the NorWeST website as individual river basins are completed (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.shtml). By providing open access to temperature data and scenarios, the project is fostering new research on stream temperatures and better collaborative management of aquatic resources through improved: 1) climate vulnerability assessments for sensitive species, 2) decision support tools that use regionally consistent scenarios, 3) water quality assessments, and 4) temperature and biological monitoring programs. Additional project details are contained in this Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative newsletter (http://greatnorthernlcc.org/features/streamtemp-database).
Vegetation of Eurasia from the last glacial maximum to present: Key biogeographic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binney, Heather; Edwards, Mary; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Lozhkin, Anatoly; Anderson, Patricia; Kaplan, Jed O.; Andreev, Andrei; Bezrukova, Elena; Blyakharchuk, Tatiana; Jankovska, Vlasta; Khazina, Irina; Krivonogov, Sergey; Kremenetski, Konstantin; Nield, Jo; Novenko, Elena; Ryabogina, Natalya; Solovieva, Nadia; Willis, Kathy; Zernitskaya, Valentina

2017-02-01

Continental-scale estimates of vegetation cover, including land-surface properties and biogeographic trends, reflect the response of plant species to climate change over the past millennia. These estimates can help assess the effectiveness of simulations of climate change using forward and inverse modelling approaches. With the advent of transient and contiguous time-slice palaeoclimate simulations, vegetation datasets with similar temporal qualities are desirable. We collated fossil pollen records for the period 21,000-0 cal yr BP (kyr cal BP; calibrated ages) for Europe and Asia north of 40°N, using extant databases and new data; we filtered records for adequate dating and sorted the nomenclature to conform to a consistent yet extensive taxon list. From this database we extracted pollen spectra representing 1000-year time-slices from 21 kyr cal BP to present and used the biomization approach to define the most likely vegetation biome represented. Biomes were mapped for the 22 time slices, and key plant functional types (PFTs, the constituents of the biomes) were tracked though time. An error matrix and index of topographic complexity clearly showed that the accuracy of pollen-based biome assignments (when compared with modern vegetation) was negatively correlated with topographic complexity, but modern vegetation was nevertheless effectively mapped by the pollen, despite moderate levels of misclassification for most biomes. The pattern at 21 ka is of herb-dominated biomes across the whole region. From the onset of deglaciation (17-18 kyr cal BP), some sites in Europe record forest biomes, particularly the south, and the proportion of forest biomes gradually increases with time through 14 kyr cal BP. During the same period, forest biomes and steppe or tundra biomes are intermixed across the central Asian mountains, and forest biomes occur in coastal Pacific areas. These forest biome occurrences, plus a record of dated plant macrofossils, indicate that some tree populations existed in southern and Eastern Europe and central and far-eastern Eurasia. PFT composition of the herbaceous biomes emphasises the significant contribution of diverse forbs to treeless vegetation, a feature often obscured in pollen records. An increase in moisture ca. 14 kyr cal BP is suggested by a shift to woody biomes and an increase in sites recording initialization and development of lakes and peat deposits, particularly in the European portion of the region. Deforestation of Western Europe, presumably related to agricultural expansion, is clearly visible in the most recent two millennia.
A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F.

2004-12-01

Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established.
Partners in Earth System Science: a Field, Laboratory and Classroom Based Professional Development Program for K-12 Teachers Designed to Build Scientific and Pedagogical Understandings of Teaching Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slattery, W.; Lunsford, S.; Diedrick, A.; Crane, C.

2015-12-01

The purpose of the Partners in Earth System Science summer and academic year professional development program for Ohio K-12 teachers is to build their understandings of the scientific observations, methods and resources that scientists use when studying past and present climate change. Participants then use these tools to develop inquiry-based activities to teach their K-12 students how the scientific method and data are used to understand the effects of global climate change. The summer portion of the program takes teachers from throughout Ohio to the Duke University Marine Laboratory in Beaufort, North Carolina. There they engage in a physical and biological exploration of the modern and ancient ocean. For example, they collect samples of sediment and test water samples collected from modern coastal environments and connect their findings with evidence of the fauna living in those environments. Then, using observations from the geological record of the Eocene through Pleistocene sediments exposed in eastern North Carolina and inferences from observations made from the modern ocean they seek to answer scientifically testable questions regarding the physical and biological characteristics of the ocean during Cenozoic climate change events. During the academic year participants connect with each other and project faculty online to support the development of inquiry based science activities for their K-12 students. These activities focus on how evidence and observations such as outcrop extent, sediment type and biological assemblages can be used to infer past climates. The activities are taught in participant's classrooms and discussed with other participants in an online discussion space. Assessment of both teachers and K-12 students document significant positive changes in science knowledge, their confidence in being able to do science and a clearer understanding of how oceans are impacted by global climate change.
Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocas, William M.; Felis, Thomas; Obert, J. Christina; Gierz, Paul; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Denis; Kölling, Martin; Scheffers, Sander R.

2016-09-01

Reconstructions of last interglacial (LIG, MIS 5e, ∼127-117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. We present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire (Caribbean Netherlands). These have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 120 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) temperature proxy records. In conjunction with a previously published 118 ka coral record, our eight records of up to 37 years in length, cover a total of 105 years within the LIG period. From these, sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality and variability in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. We detect similar to modern SST seasonality of ∼2.9 °C during the early (130 ka) and the late LIG (120-118 ka). However, within the mid-LIG, a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9 °C (at 126 ka) and 4.1 °C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the LIG, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period. The climate model simulations suggest that the SST seasonality changes documented in our LIG coral Sr/Ca records are representative of larger regions within the tropical North Atlantic. These simulations also suggest that the reconstructed SST seasonality increase during the mid-LIG is caused primarily by summer warming. A 124 ka old coral documents, for the first time, evidence of decadal SST variability in the tropical North Atlantic during the LIG, akin to that observed in modern instrumental records.
The long sediment record of lake Challa: a unique equatorial archive, potentially crucial for understanding early human dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Daele, Maarten; Moernaut, Jasper; De Batist, Marc; Verschuren, Dirk

2013-04-01

Lake Challa (Mt. Kilimanjaro, Kenya/Tanzania) is located in a key site for reconstructing the climate and landscape history of equatorial East Africa and hence, climatic influences on the living environment of early modern humans, Homo sapiens. Seismic-reflection data from this crater lake reveal a ~210-m thick sedimentary infill containing distinct seismic-stratigraphic signatures of late-Quaternary lake-level fluctuations. Extrapolation of a well-constrained age model on the cored upper part of the sequence shows that the signatures of these lake-level fluctuations represent a detailed record of climatic moisture-balance variation in equatorial East Africa, continuous over at least the last 140 kyr and encompassing in total ~250 kyr. The most severe aridity occurred during peak Penultimate glaciation immediately before 130 kyr BP (coeval with Heinrich event 11) and during a Last Interglacial 'megadrought' period between ~115 and ~98 kyr BP; in comparison, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) aridity was modest. The LGM was preceded by ~75,000 years of relatively stable and moist climate conditions interrupted by eleven short-lived dry spells, five of which match the timing of Heinrich events 2 to 6. Also in the lower part of the sedimentary infill the seismic stratigraphy provides evidence for short-lived dry spells, but artefacts and changes in basin geometry complicate their detailed interpretation and dating, respectively. The ICDP deep-drilling project DeepCHALLA aims to core the entire sedimentary sequence, which will allow reconstructing regional climate and ecological dynamics for the past ~250 kyr, i.e., the entire documented existence of anatomically modern humans in East Africa. Knowledge of climate history in this equatorial region, where the northeasterly and southeasterly monsoons strongly interact, is crucial for documenting the severity and geographical distribution of prolonged drought episodes across tropical Africa, and thus for understanding the early dispersal of modern humans from Africa into Eurasia between ~100,000 and ~50,000 years ago.
Numerical modeling of Drangajökull Ice Cap, NW Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Leif S.; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Flowers, Gwenn E.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Pálsson, Finnur; Muñoz-Cobo Belart, Joaquín; Þorsteinsson, Þorsteinn; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Sigurðsson, Oddur; Harning, David; Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug

2016-04-01

Over the past century the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the global average. This discrepancy is likely due to feedbacks inherent to the Arctic climate system. These Arctic climate feedbacks are currently poorly quantified, but are essential to future climate predictions based on global circulation modeling. Constraining the magnitude and timing of past Arctic climate changes allows us to test climate feedback parameterizations at different times with different boundary conditions. Because Holocene Arctic summer temperature changes have been largest in the North Atlantic (Kaufman et al., 2004) we focus on constraining the paleoclimate of Iceland. Glaciers are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation amount. This sensitivity allows for the estimation of paleoclimate using glacier models, modern glacier mass balance data, and past glacier extents. We apply our model to the Drangajökull ice cap (~150 sq. km) in NW Iceland. Our numerical model is resolved in two-dimensions, conserves mass, and applies the shallow-ice-approximation. The bed DEM used in the model runs was constructed from radio echo data surveyed in spring 2014. We constrain the modern surface mass balance of Drangajökull using: 1) ablation and accumulation stakes; 2) ice surface digital elevation models (DEMs) from satellite, airborne LiDAR, and aerial photographs; and 3) full-stokes model-derived vertical ice velocities. The modeled vertical ice velocities and ice surface DEMs are combined to estimate past surface mass balance. We constrain Holocene glacier geometries using moraines and trimlines (e.g., Brynjolfsson, etal, 2014), proglacial-lake cores, and radiocarbon-dated dead vegetation emerging from under the modern glacier. We present a sensitivity analysis of the model to changes in parameters and show the effect of step changes of temperature and precipitation on glacier extent. Our results are placed in context with local lacustrine and marine climate proxies as well as with glacier extent and volume changes across the North Atlantic.

The "Prediflood" database of historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) AD 1035-2013, and its potential applications in flood analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriendos, M.; Ruiz-Bellet, J. L.; Tuset, J.; Mazón, J.; Balasch, J. C.; Pino, D.; Ayala, J. L.

2014-12-01

"Prediflood" is a database of historical floods that occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), between the 11th century and the 21st century. More than 2700 flood cases are catalogued, and more than 1100 flood events. This database contains information acquired under modern historiographical criteria and it is, therefore, suitable for use in multidisciplinary flood analysis techniques, such as meteorological or hydraulic reconstructions.
Morphological adaptation to climate in modern Homo sapiens crania: the importance of basicranial breadth.

PubMed

Nowaczewska, Wioletta; Dabrowski, Paweł; Kuźmiński, Łukasz

2011-09-01

The aim of this study is to investigate whether the variation in breadth of the cranial base among modern human populations that inhabit different regions of the world is linked with climatic adaptation. This work provides an examination of two hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that the correlation between basicranial breadth and ambient temperature is stronger than the correlation between temperature and other neurocranial variables, such as maximum cranial breadth, maximum neurocranial length, and the endocranial volume. The second hypothesis is that the correlation between the breadth of the cranial base and the ambient temperature is significant even when other neurocranial features used in this study (including the size of the neurocranium) are constant. For the sake of this research, the necessary neurocranial variables for fourteen human populations living in diverse environments were obtained from Howells' data (except for endocranial volume which was obtained by means of estimation). The ambient temperature (more precisely, the mean yearly temperature) of the environments inhabited by these populations was used as a major climatic factor. Data were analysed using Pearson correlation coefficients, linear regression and partial correlation analyses. The results supported the two hypotheses, thus suggesting that ambient temperature may contribute to the observed differences in the breadth of the cranial base in the studied modern humans.
Pollen, vegetation, and climate relationships along the Dalton Highway, Alaska, USA: a basis for holocene paleoecological and paleoclimatic studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Short, S.K.; Andrews, J.T.; Webber, P.J.

The Dalton Highway extends from Fairbanks, in the interior of Alaska, to Prudhoe Bay on the Arctic Coastal Plain. Over this 600-km transect, July temperatures vary from 17 to 5/sup 0/C. Studies of vegetation along the Dalton Highway identified nine major zones. During the vegetation survey moss polsters were collected within the survey quadrats. Two hundred and nineteen individual moss polsters document regional variations in the modern pollen spectra along this vegetation/climate transect. Treeline is distinguished by a change from dominance by spruce and shrub (especially alder) pollen to the south to herb and shrub (especially willow) pollen dominance tomore » the north; a shift from high modern pollen concentration values to very low values is also noted. Discriminant analysis indicated that the vegetation zones are also defined by different pollen assemblages, suggesting that former changes in vegetation during the Holocene, as recorded in peat deposits, could be interpreted from pollen diagrams. Transfer functions were developed to examine the statistical association between the modern pollen rain and several climatic parameters. The correlation between pollen taxa and mean July temperature was r = 0.84. The most important taxa in the equation are Picea, Alnus, Pinus, Sphagnum, and Betula. 59 references, 7 figures, 4 tables.« less
Climate Data Guide - Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Bosilovich, Michael

2017-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is a global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It spans the satellite observing era from 1980 to the present. The goals of MERRA-2 are to provide a regularly-gridded, homogeneous record of the global atmosphere, and to incorporate additional aspects of the climate system including trace gas constituents (stratospheric ozone), and improved land surface representation, and cryospheric processes. MERRA-2 is also the first satellite-era global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of aerosols and represent their interactions with other physical processes in the climate system. The inclusion of these additional components are consistent with the overall objectives of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA). MERRA-2 is intended to replace the original MERRA product, and reflects recent advances in atmospheric modeling and data assimilation. Modern hyperspectral radiance and microwave observations, along with GPS-Radio Occultation and NASA ozone datasets are now assimilated in MERRA-2. Much of the structure of the data files remains the same in MERRA-2. While the original MERRA data format was HDF-EOS, the MERRA-2 supplied binary data format is now NetCDF4 (with lossy compression to save space).
The case for a modern multiwavelength, polarization-sensitive LIDAR in orbit around Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Adrian J.; Michaels, Timothy I.; Byrne, Shane; Sun, Wenbo; Titus, Timothy N.; Colaprete, Anthony; Wolff, Michael J.; Videen, Gorden; Grund, Christian J.

2014-01-01

We present the scientific case to build a multiple-wavelength, active, near-infrared (NIR) instrument to measure the reflected intensity and polarization characteristics of backscattered radiation from planetary surfaces and atmospheres. We focus on the ability of such an instrument to enhance, perhaps revolutionize, our understanding of climate, volatiles and astrobiological potential of modern-day Mars.
NCO Production Management Branch

Science.gov Websites

Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library Photo Library Management Branch Production Management Branch About the Production Management Branch NCO REQUEST FOR CHANGE (RFC) DATABASE ACCESS NCO Request For Change (RFC) Archive [For INTERNAL Use Only] NCO Request For
A Global Digital Database and Atlas of Quaternary Dune Fields and Sand Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lancaster, N.; Halfen, A. F.

2012-12-01

Sand seas and dune fields are globally significant sedimentary deposits, which archive the effects of climate and sea level change on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Dune systems provide a valuable source of information on past climate conditions, including evidence for periods of aridity and unique data on past wind regimes. Researchers have compiled vast quantities of geomorphic and chronological data from these dune systems for nearly half a century, however, these data remain disconnected, making comparisons of dune systems challenging at global and regional scales. The primary goal of this project is to develop a global digital database of chronologic information for periods of desert sand dune accumulation and stabilization, as well as, pertinent stratigraphic and geomorphic information. This database can then be used by scientists to 1) document the history of aeolian processes in arid regions with emphasis on dune systems in low and mid latitude deserts, 2) correlate periods of sand accumulation and stability with other terrestrial and marine paleoclimatic proxies and records, and 3) develop an improved understanding of the response of dune systems to climate change. The database currently resides in Microsoft Access format, which allows searching and filtering of data. The database includes 4 linked tables containing information on the site, chronological control (radiocarbon or luminescence), and the pertinent literature citations. Thus far the database contains information for 838 sites world wide, comprising 2598 luminescence and radiocarbon ages, though these numbers increase regularly as new data is added. The database is only available on request at this time, however, an online, GIS database is being developed and will be available in the near future. Data outputs from the online database will include PDF reports and Google Earth formatted data sets for quick viewing of data. Additionally, data will be available in a gridded format for wider use in data-model comparisons. Sites in database August 2012
Molecules in the mud: Combining ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers to reconstruct vegetation response to climate variability during the Last Interglacial and the Holocene on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.

2017-12-01

Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.
Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA.

PubMed

Stewart, Joseph A E; Wright, David H; Heckman, Katherine A

2017-01-01

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species' core habitat has been lacking. Here, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km2 area located within its core habitat in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancy ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910-2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades.
Climate change and health in Earth's future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

2014-02-01

Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.
Assessing the Credibility of Climate Science Information: A Roadmap for Educators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.

2017-12-01

Although there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that humans are driving modern day climate change, a significant portion of Americans are still not convinced. One reason for this gap in understanding results from a large body of misinformation that is easily accessible by students and educators. Here the author presents an effective teaching model to allow students to assess the credibility of organizations and their authors who publish climate science information aimed toward the general public.
When do glaciated landscapes form?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M. N.

2015-12-01

Glacial erosion is a fundamental link between climate and the tectonic and surface processes that create topography. Mountain ranges worldwide have undergone large-scale modification due the erosive action of ice masses, yet the mechanisms that control the timing of this modification and the rate by which ice erodes remain poorly understood. Available data report a wide range of erosion rates from individual ice masses over varying timescales, from the modern to orogenic. Recent numerical modeling efforts have focused on replicating the processes that produce the geomorphic signatures of glacial landscapes. Central to these models is a simple index that relates erosion rate to ice dynamics. To provide a quantitative test of the links between glacial erosion, sliding and ice discharge, we examined explicitly the factors controlling modern glacier erosion rates across climatic regimes, from Patagonia to the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that modern, basin-averaged erosion rates vary by three orders of magnitude, from 1->10 mm yr-1 in Patagonia to 0.01-<0.1 mm yr-1 in the AP, largely as a function of temperature and basal thermal regime. Erosion rates also increase non-linearly with both the sliding speed and the ice flux through the ELA, in accord with theories of glacial erosion. Notably, erosion rates decrease by over two orders of magnitude between temperate and polar glaciers with similar discharge rates. The difference in erosion rates between temperate and colder glaciers of similar shape and size is primarily related to the abundance of meltwater accessing the bed. Since all glaciers worldwide have experienced colder than current climatic conditions, the 100-fold decrease in long-term relative to modern erosion rates may in part reflect the temporal averaging of temperate and polar conditions over the lifecycle of these glaciers. Hence, climatic variation, more than the extent of ice cover or tectonic changes, controls the pace at which glaciers shape mountains.
Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahowald, N.M.; Muhs, D.R.; Levis, S.; Rasch, P.J.; Yoshioka, M.; Zender, C.S.; Luo, C.

2006-01-01

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2012-01-01

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.
CRETACEOUS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY STUDY USING DINOSAUR & PLANT PALEOBIOGEOGRAPHY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, A.; Main, D. J.; Noto, C. R.; Moore, T. L.; Scotese, C.

2009-12-01

The Early Cretaceous was characterized by cool poles and moderate global temperatures (~16° C). During the mid and late Cretaceous, long-term global warming (~20° - 22° C) was driven by increasing levels of CO2, rising sea level (lowering albedo) and the continuing breakup of Pangea. Paleoclimatic reconstructions for four time intervals during the Cretaceous: Middle Campanian (80 Ma), Cenomanian/Turonian (90 Ma), Early Albian (110 Ma) and Barremian-Hauterivian (130Ma) are presented here. These paleoclimate simulations were prepared using the Fast Ocean and Atmosphere Model (FOAM). The simulated results show the pattern of the pole-to-Equator temperature gradients, rainfall, surface run-off, the location of major rivers and deltas. In order to investigate the effect of potential dispersal routes on paleobiogeographic patterns, a time-slice series of maps from Early - Late Cretaceous were produced showing plots of dinosaur and plant fossil distributions. These Maps were created utilizing: 1) plant fossil localities from the GEON and Paleobiology (PBDB) databases; and 2) dinosaur fossil localities from an updated version of the Dinosauria (Weishampel, 2004) database. These results are compared to two different types of datasets, 1) Paleotemperature database for the Cretaceous and 2) locality data obtained from GEON, PBDB and Dinosauria database. Global latitudinal mean temperatures from both the model and the paelotemperature database were plotted on a series of latitudinal graphs along with the distributions of fossil plants and dinosaurs. It was found that most dinosaur localities through the Cretaceous tend to cluster within specific climate belts, or envelopes. Also, these Cretaceous maps show variance in biogeographic zonation of both plants and dinosaurs that is commensurate with reconstructed climate patterns and geography. These data are particularly useful for understanding the response of late Mesozoic ecosystems to geographic and climatic conditions that differed markedly from the present. Studies of past biotas and their changes may elucidate the role of climatic and geographic factors in driving changes in species distributions, ecosystem organization, and evolutionary dynamics over time.
Freshwater Biological Traits Database (Traits)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The traits database was compiled for a project on climate change effects on river and stream ecosystems. The traits data, gathered from multiple sources, focused on information published or otherwise well-documented by trustworthy sources.
The China Plant Trait Database: toward a comprehensive regional compilation of functional traits for land plants.

PubMed

Wang, Han; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, Iain C; Yang, Yanzheng; Bai, Fan; Togashi, Henrique F; Wang, Meng; Zhou, Shuangxi; Ni, Jian

2018-02-01

Plant functional traits provide information about adaptations to climate and environmental conditions, and can be used to explore the existence of alternative plant strategies within ecosystems. Trait data are also increasingly being used to provide parameter estimates for vegetation models. Here we present a new database of plant functional traits from China. Most global climate and vegetation types can be found in China, and thus the database is relevant for global modeling. The China Plant Trait Database contains information on morphometric, physical, chemical, and photosynthetic traits from 122 sites spanning the range from boreal to tropical, and from deserts and steppes through woodlands and forests, including montane vegetation. Data collection at each site was based either on sampling the dominant species or on a stratified sampling of each ecosystem layer. The database contains information on 1,215 unique species, though many species have been sampled at multiple sites. The original field identifications have been taxonomically standardized to the Flora of China. Similarly, derived photosynthetic traits, such as electron-transport and carboxylation capacities, were calculated using a standardized method. To facilitate trait-environment analyses, the database also contains detailed climate and vegetation information for each site. The data set is released under a Creative Commons BY license. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article, recognizing the hard work that went into collecting the data and the authors' willingness to make it publicly available. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Using Data for School Change: The Discipline Equity Audit and School Climate Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gullo, Gina Laura

2018-01-01

Using data effectively is a critical skill for the modern school leaders. This case presents a school district where local interest groups are demanding changes regarding school safety and inclusion. Students have the opportunity to respond to a disciplinary equity audit and school climate survey. While interpreting and using data in a meaningful…
Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Tindall, Julia C.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.

2015-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.
Climate change and early human land-use in a biodiversity hotspot, the Afromontane region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. M.; Sax, D. F.; Early, R.

2015-12-01

African ecosystems are at great risk due to climate and land-use change. Paleo-records illustrate that changes in precipitation and temperature have led to dramatic alterations of African vegetation distribution over the Quaternary; however, despite the fact that the link between mankind and the environment has a longer history in the African tropics than anywhere else on earth, very little is known about pre-colonial land-use. Disentangling the influence of each is particularly critical in areas of exceptional biodiversity and endemism, such as the Afromontane forest region. This region is generally considered to be highly sensitive to temperature and thus at risk to future climate change. However, new evidence suggests that some high elevation species may have occupied warmer areas in the past and thus are not strongly limited by temperature and may be at greater risk from intensifying land-use. First, we use species distribution models constructed from modern and paleo-distributions of high elevation forests in order to evaluate differences in the climatic space occupied today compared to the past. We find that although modern Afromontane species ranges occupy very narrow climate conditions, and in particular that most species occur only in cold areas, in the past most species have tolerated warmer conditions. This suggests that many montane tree species are not currently limited by warm temperatures, and that the region has already seen significant reduction in the climate space occupied, possibly from Holocene land-use. Second, to evaluate human impacts on montane populations, we examine paleoecological records from lakes throughout sub-Saharan Africa that capture ecological processes at difference time scales to reconstruct Afromontane forest range changes. Over long time scales, we observe phases of forest expansion in the lowlands associated with climate variability alone where composition varies little from phase to phase but include both modern low and high altitude taxa. We then examine changes in biodiversity and species composition within the Afromontane region related to evidence different types of historical land-use, suggesting significant alteration of montane forest range and lowland forest composition.

In-situ databases and comparison of ESA Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) products with precursor data, towards an integrated approach for ocean colour validation and climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brotas, Vanda; Valente, André; Couto, André B.; Grant, Mike; Chuprin, Andrei; Jackson, Thomas; Groom, Steve; Sathyendranath, Shubha

2014-05-01

Ocean colour (OC) is an Oceanic Essential Climate Variable, which is used by climate modellers and researchers. The European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative project, is the ESA response for the need of climate-quality satellite data, with the goal of providing stable, long-term, satellite-based ECV data products. The ESA Ocean Colour CCI focuses on the production of Ocean Colour ECV uses remote sensing reflectances to derive inherent optical properties and chlorophyll a concentration from ESA's MERIS (2002-2012) and NASA's SeaWiFS (1997 - 2010) and MODIS (2002-2012) sensor archives. This work presents an integrated approach by setting up a global database of in situ measurements and by inter-comparing OC-CCI products with pre-cursor datasets. The availability of in situ databases is fundamental for the validation of satellite derived ocean colour products. A global distribution in situ database was assembled, from several pre-existing datasets, with data spanning between 1997 and 2012. It includes in-situ measurements of remote sensing reflectances, concentration of chlorophyll-a, inherent optical properties and diffuse attenuation coefficient. The database is composed from observations of the following datasets: NOMAD, SeaBASS, MERMAID, AERONET-OC, BOUSSOLE and HOTS. The result was a merged dataset tuned for the validation of satellite-derived ocean colour products. This was an attempt to gather, homogenize and merge, a large high-quality bio-optical marine in situ data, as using all datasets in a single validation exercise increases the number of matchups and enhances the representativeness of different marine regimes. An inter-comparison analysis between OC-CCI chlorophyll-a product and satellite pre-cursor datasets was done with single missions and merged single mission products. Single mission datasets considered were SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS; merged mission datasets were obtained from the GlobColour (GC) as well as the Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs). OC-CCI product was found to be most similar to SeaWiFS record, and generally, the OC-CCI record was most similar to records derived from single mission than merged mission initiatives. Results suggest that CCI product is a more consistent dataset than other available merged mission initiatives. In conclusion, climate related science, requires long term data records to provide robust results, OC-CCI product proves to be a worthy data record for climate research, as it combines multi-sensor OC observations to provide a >15-year global error-characterized record.
Agroclimate.Org: Tools and Information for a Climate Resilient Agriculture in the Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.

2014-12-01

AgroClimate (http://agroclimate.org) is a web-based system developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes climate monitoring and forecasts combined with information about crop management practices that help increase the resiliency of the agricultural industry in the region. Recently we have included smartphone apps in the AgroClimate suite of tools, including irrigation management and crop disease alert systems. Decision support tools available in AgroClimate include: (a) Climate risk: expected (probabilistic) and historical climate information and freeze risk; (b) Crop yield risk: expected yield based on soil type, planting date, and basic management practices for selected commodities and historical county yield databases; (c) Crop diseases: disease risk monitoring and forecasting for strawberry and citrus; (d) Crop development: monitoring and forecasting of growing degree-days and chill accumulation; (e) Drought: monitoring and forecasting of selected drought indices, (f) Footprints: Carbon and water footprint calculators. The system also provides background information about the main drivers of climate variability and basic information about climate change in the Southeast USA. AgroClimate has been widely used as an educational tool by the Cooperative Extension Services in the region and also by producers. It is now being replicated internationally with version implemented in Mozambique and Paraguay.
Defective modernization and health in Mexico.

PubMed

Simonelli, J M

1987-01-01

This paper uses data gathered in a semi-arid, mountain region of the border state of Sonora, Mexico to illustrate that modernization and the importation of urban ideas and values can influence health status in unexpected ways. It traces the historic process of modernization in a rural municipio, relating this to social promises and economic cycles in Mexico. Modernization is seen to encompass life standard improvements and access to medical care; extension of road and transportation systems; and the widespread availability of information and education, as well as lifestyle changes required to incorporate these 'urban' influences. Reviewing the link between climate and health in arid lands, the paper notes that such modernization can be a well-meaning intrusion upon a set of cultural and social practices which had proved adaptive in dealing with climatic extremes. Initial modernization produces impressive declines in mortality and morbidity, as illustrated in an analysis of mortality figures and causes in relation to age cohorts and decades for the years 1955-1984. However, reductions in epidermic-related infant mortality are shown to be offset by increases in deaths due to trauma, chronic conditions and endemic disease. An analysis of morbidity for the year 1983-84 indicates that continuing high rates of infectious disease are related to conditions which result from increasingly defective modernization. To maintain technology, including water, electrical, and sewage systems, continual capital expenditure on both the public and private level is required. The economic crisis in Mexico is reducing available funds at a time when the community has adjusted its traditional lifestyle to incorporate technological improvements. In light of this, it is likely that inroads against infectious disease will not just continue to be stalemated, but could actually be reversed. This finding has implications for towns and villages on both sides of the Mexican-American border.
Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

2016-01-01

Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from the workshop participants via preworkshop surveys, focused on addressing the following questions: What are the climatic, ecological, and human drivers of fire regimes, both past and future? What is the role of humans in shaping historical fire regimes? How does fire ecology affect land cover changes, biodiversity, carbon storage, and human land uses? What are the historical fire trends and their impacts across biomes? Are their impacts local and/or regional? Are the fire trends in the last two decades unprecedented from a historical perspective? The workshop1 aimed to develop testable hypotheses about fire, climate, vegetation, and human interactions by leveraging the confluence of proxy, observational, and model data related to decadal- to millennial-scale fire activity on our planet. New research directions focused on broad interdisciplinary approaches to highlight how knowledge about past fire activity could provide a more complete understanding of the predictive capacity of fire models and inform fire policy in the face of our changing climate.
NNDC Stand: Activities and Services of the National Nuclear Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritychenko, B.; Arcilla, R.; Burrows, T. W.; Dunford, C. L.; Herman, M. W.; McLane, V.; Obložinský, P.; Sonzogni, A. A.; Tuli, J. K.; Winchell, D. F.

2005-05-01

The National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) collects, evaluates, and disseminates nuclear physics data for basic nuclear research, applied nuclear technologies including energy, shielding, medical and homeland security. In 2004, to answer the needs of nuclear data users community, NNDC completed a project to modernize data storage and management of its databases and began offering new nuclear data Web services. The principles of database and Web application development as well as related nuclear reaction and structure database services are briefly described.
Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation. Passing this course raises awareness of the general public, as well as prepares the user for subsequent registration in the system and work with its tools in conducting independent research. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.
The relative importance of body size and paleoclimatic change as explanatory variables influencing lineage diversification rate: an evolutionary analysis of bullhead catfishes (Siluriformes: Ictaluridae).

PubMed

Hardman, Michael; Hardman, Lotta M

2008-02-01

We applied Bayesian phylogenetics, divergence time estimation, diversification pattern analysis, and parsimony-based methods of ancestral state reconstruction to a combination of nucleotide sequences, maximum body sizes, fossils, and paleoclimate data to explore the influence of an extrinsic (climate change) and an intrinsic (maximum body size) factor on diversification rates in a North American clade of catfishes (Ictaluridae). We found diversification rate to have been significantly variable over time, with significant (or nearly significant) rate increases in the early history of Noturus. Though the latter coincided closely with a period of dramatic climate change at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, we did not detect evidence for a general association between climate change and diversification rate during the entire history of Ictaluridae. Within Ictaluridae, small body size was found to be a near significant predictor of species richness. Morphological stasis of several species appears to be a consequence of a homoplastic increase in body size. We estimated the maximum standard length of the ictalurid ancestor to be approximately 50 cm, comparable to Eocene ictalurids (Astephus) and similar to modern sizes of Ameiurus and their Asian sister-taxon Cranoglanis. During the late Paleocene and early Eocene, the ictalurid ancestor diversified into the lineages represented by the modern epigean genera. The majority of modern species originated in the Oligocene and Miocene, most likely according to a peripheral isolates model of speciation. We discuss the difficulties of detecting macroevolutionary patterns within a lineage history and encourage the scrutiny of the terminal Eocene climatic event as a direct promoter of diversification.
Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower tomore » more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.« less
Investigation of n-Alkane Distributions in Modern Plant Litter from Hawaii wetlands: a potential proxy for past vegetation and hydroclimate changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.; Nichols, J. E.; Elison Timm, O.

2016-12-01

Holocene peat deposits from the Hawaiian Islands provide a unique opportunity to resolve millennial to centennial-scale climate variability over the central Pacific region, where data remain scarce. Because both extratropical and tropical modes of climate variability have a strong influence on modern rainfall over the archipelago, hydroclimate proxies from peat would provide valuable information about past Pacific climate changes. The few terrestrial records studied, based on pollen or leaf wax biomarkers, showed evidence for substantial vegetation changes that have been linked to a drying trend over the Holocene. Leaf wax n-alkanes, as well as their stable isotopic compositions (δ13C and δD), are indeed increasingly used to reconstruct past hydroclimate conditions. The interpretation of n-alkanes as biomarkers requires however a thorough knowledge of their distribution in modern plants that contribute to sediments, but in Hawaii the modern vegetation is understudied compared to proxy applications. Here we report results from a preliminary investigation of n-alkanes distributions in dominant modern plant litter collected at a bog site at the summit of the Waianae mountains on the Island of Oahu. We compared n-alkane distributions among species and plant groups in order to test whether taxa or plant functional types (mosses, ferns, woody plants, and sedges) can be discriminated from their n-alkane profiles. Results showed that general plant groups were difficult to distinguish based on individual n-alkanes abundances, chain lengths, or ratios. At the species level, the sedge Machaerina augustifolia, was largely dominated by n-C29 ( 60%), suggesting some chain lengths could be useful as proxies for identifying the contribution of sedges to sedimentary records. Woody plant average chain length was highly variable but overall was not shorter (even slightly higher) than in other terrestrial plants, as it is often assumed. A sedimentary profile from this site shows variation and an overall decrease in n-alkane chain length over the Holocene, but patterns across common modern plants suggest that caution should be exercised when ascribing n-alkane distribution parameters to a specific group of tropical vegetation.
Providing Database Services in a Nationwide Research Organisation--Coexistence of Traditional Information Services and a Modern CD-ROM/Online Hybrid Solution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowman, Benjamin F.

For the past two decades the central Information Retrieval Services of the Max Planck Society has been providing database searches for scientists in Max Planck Institutes and Research Groups throughout Germany. As a supplement to traditional search services offered by professional intermediaries, they have recently fostered the introduction of a…
Four Centuries of Change in Northeastern United States Forests

PubMed Central

Thompson, Jonathan R.; Carpenter, Dunbar N.; Cogbill, Charles V.; Foster, David R.

2013-01-01

The northeastern United States is a predominately-forested region that, like most of the eastern U.S., has undergone a 400-year history of intense logging, land clearance for agriculture, and natural reforestation. This setting affords the opportunity to address a major ecological question: How similar are today's forests to those existing prior to European colonization? Working throughout a nine-state region spanning Maine to Pennsylvania, we assembled a comprehensive database of archival land-survey records describing the forests at the time of European colonization. We compared these records to modern forest inventory data and described: (1) the magnitude and attributes of forest compositional change, (2) the geography of change, and (3) the relationships between change and environmental factors and historical land use. We found that with few exceptions, notably the American chestnut, the same taxa that made up the pre-colonial forest still comprise the forest today, despite ample opportunities for species invasion and loss. Nonetheless, there have been dramatic shifts in the relative abundance of forest taxa. The magnitude of change is spatially clustered at local scales (<125 km) but exhibits little evidence of regional-scale gradients. Compositional change is most strongly associated with the historical extent of agricultural clearing. Throughout the region, there has been a broad ecological shift away from late successional taxa, such as beech and hemlock, in favor of early- and mid-successional taxa, such as red maple and poplar. Additionally, the modern forest composition is more homogeneous and less coupled to local climatic controls. PMID:24023749
Climate variations in northern North America (6000 BP to present) reconstructed from pollen and tree-ring data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diaz, H.F.; Andrews, J.T.; Short, S.K.

The characteristic anomaly patterns of modern surface temperature and precipitation are compared to tree-ring indices (0-300 yr) and fossil pollen (0-6000 yr) variations in northern North America. The data base consists of 245 climate stations, 55 tree-ring chronologies, 153 modern pollen collections, and 39 fossil pollen sites. A few areas exhibit relatively high climatic sensitivity, displaying generally consistent patterns during alternate warm and cold periods, regardless of time scales. The surface changes are related to the redistribution (i.e., changes in the mean position and strength) of the planetary-scale waves and to north-south shifts in the mean boundary of the Arcticmore » Front. The zone where the largest changes occur is typically located along the mean present-day boundary between Arctic and Pacific airstreams. Establishing plausible relationships between vegetation responses and concomitant changes in atmospheric circulation patterns increases our confidence that the paleoclimatic signals are indeed related to large-scale circulation changes.« less
North Pacific atmospheric rivers and their influence on western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Risi, Camille; Tripati, Aradhna E.

2017-01-01

Southwestern North America was wetter than present during the Last Glacial Maximum. The causes of increased water availability have been recently debated, and quantitative precipitation reconstructions have been underutilized in model-data comparisons. We investigate the climatological response of North Pacific atmospheric rivers to the glacial climate using model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions. Atmospheric moisture transport due to these features shifted toward the southeast relative to modern. Enhanced southwesterly moisture delivery between Hawaii and California increased precipitation in the southwest while decreasing it in the Pacific Northwest, in agreement with reconstructions. Coupled climate models that are best able to reproduce reconstructed precipitation changes simulate decreases in sea level pressure across the eastern North Pacific and show the strongest southeastward shifts of moisture transport relative to a modern climate. Precipitation increases of ˜1 mm d-1, due largely to atmospheric rivers, are of the right magnitude to account for reconstructed pluvial conditions in parts of southwestern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum.
ECOLES: a Citizen Observers network engaging communities to map climate change at the local level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thejll, Peter; Walker, Nicholas; Sandholt, Inge; Brown, Ian; Solberg, Rune; Suwala, Jason; Kelly, Richard; Tangen, Helge; Berglund, Robin; Dean, Andy; Engset, Rune; Siewertsen, Bjarne

2016-04-01

Engaging people in environmental studies is an important way to bring across awareness of expected future climate changes, and also a way to measure environmental change in ways that are better or complementary to remote sensing methods. With a hands-on approach, people are more likely to embrace the idea that climate change is occurring, and with modern technologies it is possible to collect quite stunning amounts of relevant data. We suggest several national activities tailored to conditions in each of the participating countries and also to existing national CO-projects. The project focuses on gathering data on biological changes, on weather, and on snow-pack information in Nordic countries as well as Greenland and Canada. Data will be gathered with existing equipment (mobile phones and internet-connected weather stations) and the project provides the means for collation of data into a database for dissemination and quality control. Numerical data collected by small non-professional weather stations or mobile phones with sensors are not directly useful quantitatively for e.g. numerical weather prediction without validation of data quality, but with validation there is a huge untapped potential due to the number of observers. Students are a central part of the project, which also seeks to engage people out and about in nature, and people with their own weather stations or other environmental data-collection activities, as well as passive data collection from mobile phone data sensors in people's bags and pockets. Appropriate software, educational and training materials will be designed with end-users in mind; school-age materials will be produced in the appropriate languages (e.g. Kalaallisut for COs of school age in Greenland).
Palaeoglaciology of the Central European Uplands - a link between the former ice masses over the Alps and Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauzenberger, B.; Fickert, T.

2009-04-01

The Central European Uplands are located northeast of the Alps along the western edge of the Czech border. A horseshoe shaped range of low mountains contains the Bavarian Forest Mountains, the Fichtel Mountains, the Erz Mountains and the Giant Mountains, with highest summit altitudes ranging from 1051 m a.s.l. (Fichtel Mountains) to 1603 m a.s.l. (Giant Mountains). The location north of the Alps makes these mountains highly interesting as a possible link between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alps. Although the glacial traces of the Central European Uplands have been investigated for more than 100 years, the glacial history is still elusive. While the highest mountains (the Bavarian Forest and the Giant Mountains) hold evidence of valley glaciers, the lower mountains (the Fichtel and the Erz Mountains) lack unambiguous glacial traces. As a first step towards a palaeoglaciological reconstruction for the Central European Uplands, we present a digital map of glacier termini with elevation data from the SRTM elevation model, compiled from previous investigations of the area. The glacial map of the Central European Uplands presents the pattern of glacial traces over an extensive area in central Europe and forms the basis for reconstructing the extent of former glaciers. We compare the glacial evidence with modern day climate data (from the high resolution WorldClim database), from which we can estimate the climate change needed to produce Central European Upland glaciers. The glacial traces of the Central European Uplands hold information on past climate of the region and this may be a key to link the glacial record of the Alps with the Scandinavian ice sheet.
Sedimentation rates in eastern North America reveal strong links between regional climate, depositional environments, and sediment accumulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Jackson, S. T.; Blaauw, M.; Christen, J.; Marlon, J.; Blois, J.; Williams, J. W.

2011-12-01

PalEON is a multidisciplinary project that combines paleo and modern ecological data with state-of-the-art statistical and modelling tools to examine the interactions between climate, fire and vegetation during the past two millennia in the northeastern United States. A fundamental challenge for PalEON (and paleo research more broadly) is to improve age modelling to yield more accurate sediment-core chronologies. To address this challenge, we assessed sedimentation rates and their controls for 218 lakes and mires in the northeastern U.S. Sedimentation rates (yr/cm) were calculated from age-depth models, which were obtained from the Neotoma database (www.neotomadb.org) and other contributed pollen records. The age models were recalibrated to IntCal09 and augmented in some cases using biostratigraphic markers (Picea decline, 16 kcal BP - 10.5 kcal BP; Quercus rise, 12 - 9.1 kcal BP; and Alnus decline, 11.5 - 10.6 kcal BP) as described in Blois et al. (2011). Relationships between sedimentation rates and sediment age, site longitude, and depositional environment (lacustrine or mire) are significant but weak. There are clear and significant links between variations in the NGRIP record of δ18O and sedimentation in mires across the PalEON region, but no links to lacustrine sedimentation rates. This result indicates that super-regional climatic control of primary productivity, and thus autochthonic sediment deposition, dominates in mires while deposition in lacustrine basins may be driven primarily by local and regional factors including watershed size, surficial materials,and regional vegetation. The shape of the gamma probability functions that best describe sedimentation rate distributions are calculated and presented here for use as priors in Bayesian age modelling applications such as BACON (Blaauw and Christen, in press). Future applications of this research are also discussed.
Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.
Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henke, L. M. K.; Lambert, F. H.; Charman, D. J.

2015-11-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean-atmosphere coupled oscillation over the equatorial Pacific, is the most important source of global climate variability on inter-annual time scales. It has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences such as devastation of South American fish populations and increased forest fires in Indonesia. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability, hence proxy data is used to extend the record. However, different proxy sources have produced varying reconstructions of ENSO, with some evidence for a temperature-precipitation divergence in ENSO trends over the past millennium, in particular during the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using EOF-based weighting to create two new large-scale ENSO reconstructions derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies respectively. The method is developed and validated using pseudoproxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. The precipitation ENSO reconstruction displays a significantly more El Niño-like state during the LIA than the MCA, while the temperature reconstruction shows no significant difference. The trends shown in the precipitation ENSO reconstruction are relatively robust to variations in the precipitation EOF pattern. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers significantly from a lack of high-quality, favourably located proxy records, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records.
Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.
Holocene climate dynamics in the central part of the East European plain (Russia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novenko, Elena

2013-04-01

The Holocene climate and vegetation dynamics in the broad-leaved forest zone of the central part of the East European plain have been reconstructed on the base of pollen, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and radiocarbon data from the mire Klukva (N 53.834812, E 36.252488), located in the kast depression in the Upper Oka River basin (Tula region, European Russia). The reconstruction of main parameters of past climate (the mean annual temperature precipitation) was carried out by the "Best Modern Analog" approach. Reconstructions of vegetation show that in the early Holocene the territory was occupied mainly by birch and pine-birch forests. Significant changes in the plant cover of the Upper Oka River basin are attributed to the 7.5 cal kyr BP). The climatic conditions were favorable for development of the broad-leaved forests those persisted in this area up to industrial period. In the 17th century, when the population density greatly increased and watersheds were ploughed, natural vegetation communities were gradually destroyed and transformed into agricultural landscapes. According to obtained climatic reconstructions the period 10-8.5 cal kyr BP was relatively cold and wet, when the mean annual temperature was in 3°C lower and precipitation was in 50-100 mm higher then nowadays. The significant climate warming occurred in about 7.0-5.0 cal kyr BP (The Holocene thermal maximum): the mean annual temperature in 2°C exceeded the modern value and precipitation was close to that. The environment conditions were drier due to decrease of effective moisture. In the second part of the Holocene the sequence of second-, and even third-order climatic oscillations expressed against the background of the overall slight trend towards cooling have been determined. The most pronounced cool and wet intervals were reconstructed in 2.5-2.0 cal kyr BP and 1.5-1.3 cal kyr BP. The mean annual temperature decreased in 1.5-2 °C and precipitation rose in 200 mm in compare to modern ones. During the last millennium the warming of the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and cooling of the Little Ice Age were clearly determined. This work was supported by RFBR grant 11-05-00557.

2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.

PubMed

Blinman, Eric

2008-11-01

Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.
Database of small research watersheds for the territory of former Soviet Union as a source of data for improving hydrological models and their parameterizations in different geographical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedeva, Liudmila; Semenova, Olga

2013-04-01

One of widely claimed problems in modern modelling hydrology is lack of available information to investigate hydrological processes and improve their representation in the models. In spite of this, one hardly might confidently say that existing "traditional" data sources have been already fully analyzed and made use of. There existed the network of research watersheds in USSR called water-balance stations where comprehensive and extensive hydrometeorological measurements were conducted according to more or less single program during the last 40-60 years. The program (where not ceased) includes observations of discharges in several, often nested and homogeneous, small watersheds, meteorological elements, evaporation, soil temperature and moisture, snow depths, etc. The network covered different climatic and landscape zones and was established in the middle of the last century with the aim of investigation of the runoff formation in different conditions. Until recently the long-term observational data accompanied by descriptions and maps had existed only in hard copies. It partly explains why these datasets are not enough exploited yet and very rarely or even never were used for the purposes of hydrological modelling although they seem to be much more promising than implementation of the completely new measuring techniques not detracting from its importance. The goal of the presented work is development of a database of observational data and supportive materials from small research watersheds across the territory of the former Soviet Union. The first version of the database will include the following information for 12 water-balance stations across Russia, Ukraine, Kazahstan and Turkmenistan: daily values of discharges (one or several watersheds), air temperature, humidity, precipitation (one or several gauges), soil and snow state variables, soil and snow evaporation. The stations will cover desert and semi desert, steppe and forest steppe, forest, permafrost and mountainous zones. Supportive material will include maps of watershed boundaries and location of observational sites. Text descriptions of the data, measuring techniques and hydrometeorological conditions related to each of the water-balance station will accompany the datasets. The database is supposed to be expanded with time in number of the stations (by 20) and available data series for each of them. It will be uploaded to the internet with open access to everyone interested in. Such a database allows one to test hydrological models and separate modules for their adequacy and workability in different conditions and can serve as a base for models comparison and evaluation. Special profit of the database will gain models that don't rely on calibration but on the adequate process representation and use of the observable parameters. One of such models, process-based Hydrograph model, will be tested against the data from every watershed from the developed database. The aim of the Hydrograph model application to the as many as possible number of research data-rich watersheds in different climatic zones is both amending the algorithms and creation and adjustment of the model parameters that allow using the model across the geographic spectrum.
Exotic ecosystems: where root disease is not a beneficial component of temperate conifer forests

Treesearch

William J. Otrosina

2003-01-01

Forest tree species and ecosystems ahve evolved under climatic, geological, and biological forces over eons of time. The present flora represents the sum of these selective forces that have acted upon ancestral and modern species. Adaptations to climatic factors, soils, insects, diseases, and a host of disturbance events, operating at a variety of scales, ahve forged...
Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?

PubMed Central

Lunt, D. J.; Elderfield, H.; Pancost, R.; Ridgwell, A.; Foster, G. L.; Haywood, A.; Kiehl, J.; Sagoo, N.; Shields, C.; Stone, E. J.; Valdes, P.

2013-01-01

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10–11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled ‘Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?’, brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change. PMID:24043873
Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

PubMed

Lunt, D J; Elderfield, H; Pancost, R; Ridgwell, A; Foster, G L; Haywood, A; Kiehl, J; Sagoo, N; Shields, C; Stone, E J; Valdes, P

2013-10-28

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.
Shift of large-scale atmospheric systems over Europe during late MIS 3 and implications for Modern Human dispersal.

PubMed

Obreht, Igor; Hambach, Ulrich; Veres, Daniel; Zeeden, Christian; Bösken, Janina; Stevens, Thomas; Marković, Slobodan B; Klasen, Nicole; Brill, Dominik; Burow, Christoph; Lehmkuhl, Frank

2017-07-19

Understanding the past dynamics of large-scale atmospheric systems is crucial for our knowledge of the palaeoclimate conditions in Europe. Southeastern Europe currently lies at the border between Atlantic, Mediterranean, and continental climate zones. Past changes in the relative influence of associated atmospheric systems must have been recorded in the region's palaeoarchives. By comparing high-resolution grain-size, environmental magnetic and geochemical data from two loess-palaeosol sequences in the Lower Danube Basin with other Eurasian palaeorecords, we reconstructed past climatic patterns over Southeastern Europe and the related interaction of the prevailing large-scale circulation modes over Europe, especially during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (40,000-27,000 years ago). We demonstrate that during this time interval, the intensification of the Siberian High had a crucial influence on European climate causing the more continental conditions over major parts of Europe, and a southwards shift of the Westerlies. Such a climatic and environmental change, combined with the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 volcanic eruption, may have driven the Anatomically Modern Human dispersal towards Central and Western Europe, pointing to a corridor over the Eastern European Plain as an important pathway in their dispersal.
Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change.

PubMed

Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2014-07-22

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132,000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial-interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.
Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change

PubMed Central

Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2014-01-01

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132 000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial–interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary. PMID:24898370
A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska experiencing climate and land-use changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.; Nigro, Debora A.; Nitze, Ingmar; Beaver, John; Gadeke, Anne; Zuck, Callie; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Daanen, Ronald; Torvinen, Eric; Fritz, Stacey; Grosse, Guido

2017-01-01

Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.
Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) - A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C. G.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-09-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7-8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2-4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1-2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.
Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-01-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.
Through Kazan ASPERA to Modern Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Alexander; Kitiashvili, Irina; Petrova, Natasha

Now the European Union form the Sixth Framework Programme. One of its the objects of the EU Programme is opening national researches and training programmes. The Russian PhD students and young astronomers have business and financial difficulties in access to modern databases and astronomical projects and so they has not been included in European overview of priorities. Modern requirements to the organization of observant projects on powerful telescopes assumes painstaking scientific computer preparation of the application. A rigid competition for observation time assume preliminary computer modeling of target object for success of the application. Kazan AstroGeoPhysics Partnership
Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

DOE PAGES

Stewart, Joseph A. E.; Wright, David H.; Heckman, Katherine A.

2017-08-30

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here in this paper, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km 2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancymore » ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades.« less
Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

PubMed Central

Wright, David H.; Heckman, Katherine A.

2017-01-01

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancy ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades. PMID:28854268
Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Joseph A. E.; Wright, David H.; Heckman, Katherine A.

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here in this paper, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km 2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancymore » ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades.« less
NATIONAL URBAN DATABASE AND ACCESS PORTAL TOOL (NUDAPT): FACILITATING ADVANCEMENTS IN URBAN METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE MODELING WITH COMMUNITY-BASED URBAN DATABASES

EPA Science Inventory

We discuss the initial design and application of the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT). This new project is sponsored by the USEPA and involves collaborations and contributions from many groups from federal and state agencies, and from private and academic i...
Climate of the Kennedy Space Center and vicinity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mailander, Joseph L.

1990-01-01

Climate plays a large role in determining the biota of a region. Summary data are presented for climate variables of ecological importance including precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, wind, isolation, lightning, and humidity. The John F. Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, and surrounding area are sampled intensively for climatic conditions; data are presented for the barrier island, Merritt Island, and the mainland, which represents the range of conditions in the local area. Climatic figures, database listings, and historic data (pre-1931) are presented in the appendix.
Flexible Environments for Grand-Challenge Simulation in Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.; Tobis, M.; Lin, J.; Dieterich, C.; Caballero, R.

2004-12-01

Current climate models are monolithic codes, generally in Fortran, aimed at high-performance simulation of the modern climate. Though they adequately serve their designated purpose, they present major barriers to application in other problems. Tailoring them to paleoclimate of planetary simulations, for instance, takes months of work. Theoretical studies, where one may want to remove selected processes or break feedback loops, are similarly hindered. Further, current climate models are of little value in education, since the implementation of textbook concepts and equations in the code is obscured by technical detail. The Climate Systems Center at the University of Chicago seeks to overcome these limitations by bringing modern object-oriented design into the business of climate modeling. Our ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end modeling environment capable of configuring anything from a simple single-column radiative-convective model to a full 3-D coupled climate model using a uniform, flexible interface. Technically, the modeling environment is implemented as a Python-based software component toolkit: key number-crunching procedures are implemented as discrete, compiled-language components 'glued' together and co-ordinated by Python, combining the high performance of compiled languages and the flexibility and extensibility of Python. We are incrementally working towards this final objective following a series of distinct, complementary lines. We will present an overview of these activities, including PyOM, a Python-based finite-difference ocean model allowing run-time selection of different Arakawa grids and physical parameterizations; CliMT, an atmospheric modeling toolkit providing a library of 'legacy' radiative, convective and dynamical modules which can be knitted into dynamical models, and PyCCSM, a version of NCAR's Community Climate System Model in which the coupler and run-control architecture are re-implemented in Python, augmenting its flexibility and adaptability.
Holocene climate variability revealed by oxygen isotope analysis of Sphagnum cellulose from Walton Moss, northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daley, T. J.; Barber, K. E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Loader, N. J.; Marshall, J. D.; Crowley, S. F.; Fisher, E. H.

2010-07-01

Stable isotope analyses of Sphagnum alpha-cellulose, precipitation and bog water from three sites across northwestern Europe (Raheenmore, Ireland, Walton Moss, northern England and Dosenmoor, northern Germany) over a total period of 26 months were used to investigate the nature of the climatic signal recorded by Sphagnum moss. The δ18O values of modern alpha-cellulose tracked precipitation more closely than bog water, with a mean isotopic fractionation factor αcellulose-precipitation of 1.0274 ± 0.001 (1 σ) (≈27‰). Sub-samples of isolated Sphagnum alpha-cellulose were subsequently analysed from core WLM22, Walton Moss, northern England yielding a Sphagnum-specific isotope record spanning the last 4300 years. The palaeo-record, calibrated using the modern data, provides evidence for large amplitude variations in the estimated oxygen isotope composition of precipitation during the mid- to late Holocene. Estimates of palaeotemperature change derived from statistical relationships between modern surface air temperatures and δ18O precipitation values for the British Isles give unrealistically large variation in comparison to proxies from other archives. We conclude that use of such relationships to calibrate mid-latitude palaeo-data must be undertaken with caution. The δ18O record from Sphagnum cellulose was highly correlated with a palaeoecologically-derived index of bog surface wetness (BSW), suggesting a common climatic driver.
A modern analogue for tectonic, eustatic, and climatic processes in cratonic basins: Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edgar, N. Terence; Cecil, C. Blaine; Mattick, R.E.; de Deckker, Patrick; Djajadihardja, Yusuf S.

2003-01-01

The Gulf of Carpentaria is a tropical, silled epicontinental sea and may be a modern analogue for ancient cratonic basins. For the purpose of this study, the Gulf of Carpentaria is compared to Pennsylvanian cratonic basins of the United States. During the Pennsylvanian, the North American continent moved from the Southern Hemisphere, through the Equator, into the Northern Hemisphere. Today, the Gulf of Carpentaria–New Guinea region is a few degrees south of the Equator and is moving towards it. During the Pennsylvanian, the world was subjected to major glaciations and associated sea-level changes. The island of New Guinea and the Gulf of Carpentaria have undergone similar processes during the Quaternary. A reconnaissance seismic survey of the gulf conducted by the USGS and the Australian National University (ANU), combined with oil-exploration well data, provided the first step in a systematic evaluation of a modern tropical epicontinental system. During the Cenozoic, the region was dominated by terrestrial sedimentation in a temperate climate. At the same time, carbonates were being deposited on the northern shelf edge of the Australian Plate. During the Miocene, carbonate deposition expanded southward into the gulf region. Then in the Late Miocene, carbonate sedimentation was replaced by terrigenous clastics derived from the developing Central Range of the island of New Guinea, which developed a wetter climate while moving northwards into the tropics. At least 14 basin-wide transgressive–regressive cycles are identified by channels that were eroded under subaerial conditions since about the Miocene. Comparison of the modern Gulf of Carpentaria sequences with those of the Pennsylvanian reveals many similarities.

Extensive wildfires, climate change, and an abrupt state change in subalpine ribbon forests, Colorado.

PubMed

Calder, W John; Shuman, Bryan

2017-10-01

Ecosystems may shift abruptly when the effects of climate change and disturbance interact, and landscapes with regularly patterned vegetation may be especially vulnerable to abrupt shifts. Here we use a fossil pollen record from a regularly patterned ribbon forest (alternating bands of forests and meadows) in Colorado to examine whether past changes in wildfire and climate produced abrupt vegetation shifts. Comparing the percentages of conifer pollen with sedimentary δ 18 O data (interpreted as an indicator of temperature or snow accumulation) indicates a first-order linear relationship between vegetation composition and climate change with no detectable lags over the past 2,500 yr (r = 0.55, P < 0.001). Additionally, however, we find that the vegetation changed abruptly within a century of extensive wildfires, which were recognized in a previous study to have burned approximately 80% of the surrounding 1,000 km 2 landscape 1,000 yr ago when temperatures rose ~0.5°C. The vegetation change was larger than expected from the effects of climate change alone. Pollen assemblages changed from a composition associated with closed subalpine forests to one similar to modern ribbon forests. Fossil pollen assemblages then remained like those from modern ribbon forests for the following ~1,000 yr, providing a clear example of how extensive disturbances can trigger persistent new vegetation states and alter how vegetation responds to climate. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janská, Veronika; Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja; Chytrý, Milan; Divíšek, Jan; Anenkhonov, Oleg; Korolyuk, Andrey; Lashchinskyi, Nikolai; Culek, Martin

2017-03-01

We modelled the European distribution of vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using present-day data from Siberia, a region hypothesized to be a modern analogue of European glacial climate. Distribution models were calibrated with current climate using 6274 vegetation-plot records surveyed in Siberia. Out of 22 initially used vegetation types, good or moderately good models in terms of statistical validation and expert-based evaluation were computed for 18 types, which were then projected to European climate at the LGM. The resulting distributions were generally consistent with reconstructions based on pollen records and dynamic vegetation models. Spatial predictions were most reliable for steppe, forest-steppe, taiga, tundra, fens and bogs in eastern and central Europe, which had LGM climate more similar to present-day Siberia. The models for western and southern Europe, regions with a lower degree of climatic analogy, were only reliable for mires and steppe vegetation, respectively. Modelling LGM vegetation types for the wetter and warmer regions of Europe would therefore require gathering calibration data from outside Siberia. Our approach adds value to the reconstruction of vegetation at the LGM, which is limited by scarcity of pollen and macrofossil data, suggesting where specific habitats could have occurred. Despite the uncertainties of climatic extrapolations and the difficulty of validating the projections for vegetation types, the integration of palaeodistribution modelling with other approaches has a great potential for improving our understanding of biodiversity patterns during the LGM.
New insights into the Weichselian environment and climate of the East Siberian Arctic, derived from fossil insects, plants, and mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sher, A. V.; Kuzmina, S. A.; Kuznetsova, T. V.; Sulerzhitsky, L. D.

2005-03-01

Multidisciplinary study of a key section on the Laptev Sea Coast (Bykovsky Peninsula, east Lena Delta) in 1998-2001 provides the most complete record of Middle and Late Weichselian environments in the East Siberian Arctic. The 40-m high Mamontovy Khayata cliff is a typical Ice Complex section built of icy silts with a network of large syngenetic polygonal ice wedges, and is richly fossiliferous. In combination with pollen, plant macrofossil and mammal fossils, a sequence of ca 70 insect samples provides a new interpretation of the environment and climate of the area between ca 50 and 12 ka. The large number of radiocarbon dates from the section, together with an extensive 14C database on mammal bones, allows chronological correlation of the various proxies. The Bykovsky record shows how climate change, and the Last Glacial Maximum in particular, affected terrestrial organisms such as insects and large grazing mammals. Both during the presumed "Karginsky Interstadial" (MIS 3) and the Sartanian Glacial (MIS 2), the vegetation remained a mosaic arctic grassland with relatively high diversity of grasses and herbs and dominance of xeric habitats: the tundra-steppe type. This biome was supported by a constantly very continental climate, caused by low sea level and enormous extension of shelf land. Variations within the broad pattern were caused mainly by fluctuations in summer temperature, related to global trends but overprinted by the effect of continentality. No major changes in humidity were observed nor were advances of modern-type forest or forest-tundra recorded, suggesting a major revision of the "Karginsky Interstadial" paradigm. The changing subtypes of the tundra-steppe environment were persistently favourable for mammalian grazers, which inhabited the shelf lowlands throughout the studied period. Mammal population numbers were lowered during the LGM, especially toward its end, and then flourished in a short, but impressive peak in the latest Weichselian, just before the collapse of the tundra-steppe biome. Throughout MIS 3 and MIS 2, the climate remained very favourable for the aggradation of permafrost. No events of regional permafrost degradation were observed in the continuous Bykovsky sequence until the very end of the Pleistocene.
Crustose coralline algae increased framework and diversity on ancient coral reefs.

PubMed

Weiss, Anna; Martindale, Rowan C

2017-01-01

Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are key producers of carbonate sediment on reefs today. Despite their importance in modern reef ecosystems, the long-term relationship of CCA with reef development has not been quantitatively assessed in the fossil record. This study includes data from 128 Cenozoic coral reefs collected from the Paleobiology Database, the Paleoreefs Database, as well as the original literature and assesses the correlation of CCA abundance with taxonomic diversity (both corals and reef dwellers) and framework of fossil coral reefs. Chi-squared tests show reef type is significantly correlated with CCA abundance and post-hoc tests indicate higher involvement of CCA is associated with stronger reef structure. Additionally, general linear models show coral reefs with higher amounts of CCA had a higher diversity of reef-dwelling organisms. These data have important implications for paleoecology as they demonstrate that CCA increased building capacity, structural integrity, and diversity of ancient coral reefs. The analyses presented here demonstrate that the function of CCA on modern coral reefs is similar to their function on Cenozoic reefs; thus, studies of ancient coral reef collapse are even more meaningful as modern analogues.
The Abrupt Onset of the Modern South Asian Monsoon Winds (iodp Exp. 359)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Eberli, G. P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J. D.; Swart, P. K.; Nath, B. N.; Reijmer, J.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

2016-12-01

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most extreme features in Earth's climate system, yet its initiation and variations are not well established. The SAM is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by changes in precipitation with heavy rain during the summer monsoon. It is one of the most intense annually recurring climatic elements and of immense importance in supplying moisture to the Indian subcontinent thus affecting human population and vegetation, as well as marine biota in the surrounding seas. The seasonal precipitation change is one of the SAM elements most noticed on land, whereas the reversal of the wind regime is the dominating driver of circulation in the central and northern Indian Ocean realm. New data acquired during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 359 from the Inner Sea of the Maldives provide a previously unread archive that reveals an abrupt onset of the SAM-linked ocean circulation pattern and its relationship to the long term Neogene climate cooling. In particular it registers ocean current fluctuations and changes of intermediate water mass properties for the last 25 myrs that are directly related to the monsoon. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents yields an age of 12.9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of sedimentary organic matter. A weaker `proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.
Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change.

PubMed

de Lafontaine, Guillaume; Napier, Joseph D; Petit, Rémy J; Hu, Feng Sheng

2018-05-05

Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called "temporal conditional neutrality" has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Reflecting on the challenges of building a rich interconnected metadata database to describe the experiments of phase six of the coupled climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) for the Earth System Documentation Project (ES-DOC) and anticipating the opportunities that tooling and services based on rich metadata can provide.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, C. L.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modelling teams since 1995. This has led to a better understanding of past, present, and future climate. The 2017 sixth phase of the CMIP process (CMIP6) consists of a suite of common experiments, and 21 separate CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) making a total of 244 separate experiments. Precise descriptions of the suite of CMIP6 experiments have been captured in a Common Information Model (CIM) database by the Earth System Documentation Project (ES-DOC). The database contains descriptions of forcings, model configuration requirements, ensemble information and citation links, as well as text descriptions and information about the rationale for each experiment. The database was built from statements about the experiments found in the academic literature, the MIP submissions to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), WCRP summary tables and correspondence with the principle investigators for each MIP. The database was collated using spreadsheets which are archived in the ES-DOC Github repository and then rendered on the ES-DOC website. A diagramatic view of the workflow of building the database of experiment metadata for CMIP6 is shown in the attached figure.The CIM provides the formalism to collect detailed information from diverse sources in a standard way across all the CMIP6 MIPs. The ES-DOC documentation acts as a unified reference for CMIP6 information to be used both by data producers and consumers. This is especially important given the federated nature of the CMIP6 project. Because the CIM allows forcing constraints and other experiment attributes to be referred to by more than one experiment, we can streamline the process of collecting information from modelling groups about how they set up their models for each experiment. End users of the climate model archive will be able to ask questions enabled by the interconnectedness of the metadata such as "Which MIPs make use of experiment A?" and "Which experiments use forcing constraint B?".
The Latest Mars Climate Database (MCD v5.1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, Francois; Spiga, Aymeric; Navarro, Thomas; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Pottier, Alizée; Montabone, Luca; Kerber, Laura; Lefèvre, Franck; Montmessin, Franck; Chaufray, Jean-Yves; López-Valverde, Miguel; González-Galindo, Francisco; Lewis, Stephen; Read, Peter; Huot, Jean-Paul; Desjean, Marie-Christine; the MCD/GCM development Team

2014-05-01

For many years, several teams around the world have developed GCMs (General Circulation Model or Global Climate Model) to simulate the environment on Mars. The GCM developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in collaboration with several teams in Europe (LATMOS, France, University of Oxford, The Open University, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia), and with the support of ESA and CNES is currently used for many applications. Its outputs have also regularly been compiled to build a Mars Climate Database, a freely available tool useful for the scientific and engineering communities. The Mars Climate Database (MCD) has over the years been distributed to more than 150 teams around the world. Following the recent improvements inthe GCM, a new series of reference simulations have been run and compiled into a new version (version5.1) of the Mars Climate Database, released in the first half of 2014. To summarize, MCD v5.1 provides: - Climatologies over a series of dust scenarios: standard year, cold (ie: low dust), warm (ie: dusty atmosphere) and dust storm, all topped by various cases of Extreme UV solar inputs (low, mean or maximum). These scenarios differ from those of previous versions of the MCD (version 4.x) as they have been derived from home-made, instrument-derived (TES, THEMIS, MCS, MERs), dust climatology of the last 8 Martian years. - Mean values and statistics of main meteorological variables (atmospheric temperature, density, pressure and winds), as well as surface pressure and temperature, CO2 ice cover, thermal and solar radiative fluxes, dust column opacity and mixing ratio, [H20] vapor and ice columns, concentrations of many species: [CO], [O2], [O], [N2], [H2], [O3], ... - A high resolution mode which combines high resolution (32 pixel/degree) MOLA topography records and Viking Lander 1 pressure records with raw lower resolution GCM results to yield, within the restriction of the procedure, high resolution values of atmospheric variables. - The possibility to reconstruct realistic conditions by combining the provided climatology with additional large scale and small scale perturbations schemes. At EGU, we will report on the latest improvements in the Mars Climate Database, with comparisons with available measurements from orbit (e.g.: TES, MCS) or landers (Viking, Phoenix, MSL).
NNDC Data Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuli, J.K.; Sonzogni,A.

The National Nuclear Data Center has provided remote access to some of its resources since 1986. The major databases and other resources available currently through NNDC Web site are summarized. The National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) has provided remote access to the nuclear physics databases it maintains and to other resources since 1986. With considerable innovation access is now mostly through the Web. The NNDC Web pages have been modernized to provide a consistent state-of-the-art style. The improved database services and other resources available from the NNOC site at www.nndc.bnl.govwill be described.
Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurek, Joshua; Cwynar, Les C.; Ager, Thomas A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Edwards, Mary E.

2009-01-01

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (~39,000-34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ~4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ~3.5C° below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ~19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ~17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ~12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.
Modernization and unification: Strategic goals for NASA STI program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blados, W.; Cotter, Gladys A.

1993-01-01

Information is increasingly becoming a strategic resource in all societies and economies. The NASA Scientific and Technical Information (STI) Program has initiated a modernization program to address the strategic importance and changing characteristics of information. This modernization effort applies new technology to current processes to provide near-term benefits to the user. At the same time, we are developing a long-term modernization strategy designed to transition the program to a multimedia, global 'library without walls.' Notwithstanding this modernization program, it is recognized that no one information center can hope to collect all the relevant data. We see information and information systems changing and becoming more international in scope. We are finding that many nations are expending resources on national systems which duplicate each other. At the same time that this duplication exists, many useful sources of aerospace information are not being collected because of resource limitations. If nations cooperate to develop an international aerospace information system, resources can be used efficiently to cover expanded sources of information. We must consider forming a coalition to collect and provide access to disparate, multidisciplinary sources of information, and to develop standardized tools for documenting and manipulating this data and information. In view of recent technological developments in information science and technology, as well as the reality of scarce resources in all nations, it is time to explore the mutually beneficial possibilities offered by cooperation and international resource sharing. International resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us towards this goal. This paper reviews the NASA modernization program and raises for consideration new possibilities for unification of the various aerospace database efforts toward a cooperative international aerospace database initiative that can optimize the cost/benefit equation for all participants.
Talking About Climate: a simple tool for everyday climate conversations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twedt, J. R.; White, R. H.; Tigchelaar, M.; Doroschak, K.; Buchanan, R.; Lundquist, D.

2017-12-01

Public opinion research from the Yale Climate Opinion Maps shows that more than half of Americans are worried about climate change, yet over 70% of Americans rarely or never discuss it with friends or family. Sociologist Kari Marie Norgaard has written about climate denial and how the subject of climate change kills conversation in her interviews, even among people who feel concerned. At the same time, news reporting on climate is often dense with information or scientific nuance and fails to make people feel personally invested in this global issue. This is problematic, because a fair and civil response to our climate crisis will require not only the personal commitment of many, but also collaborative public discourse. For these reasons, we have developed an app that aims to foster meaningful conversation about climate change. The app draws on a database we constructed of historic climate events and relates these events to people's own lives and experiences. Our database is broad and growing, and includes climate change facts, landmark cases in environmental law, social achievements such as the IPCC earning the Nobel Peace Prize, and the personal account from a 12-year old's blog post about FEMA relocation after Hurricane Katrina. Events are stated in plain language and accompanied by open-ended questions to spark discussion. The goal of ClimateConversations is not to inform or persuade, but to support reflective, open-ended conversation, to encourage personal storytelling about climate-related events, and to foster generative dialogue on an issue that all too often causes discomfort and social division. Here we present the climate science, social science, software, and design considerations that went into developing this app. We will also present early quantitative and qualitative metrics of it's use and effectiveness both in classroom and community settings.
Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felis, T.; Brocas, W.; Obert, J. C.; Gierz, P.; Lohmann, G.; Scholz, D.; Kölling, M.; Pfeiffer, M.; Scheffers, S. R.

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of last interglacial ( 127-117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. However, the seasonal temperature changes of the tropical ocean are not well known for the last interglacial period. Here we present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire. These corals have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 118 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved Sr/Ca temperature proxy records. Our eight coral records of up to 37 years in length cover a total of 105 years within the last interglacial period. From these coral records, sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. We detect similar to modern SST seasonality of 2.9 °C during the early (130 ka) and the late last interglacial (120 - 118 ka). However, within the mid-last interglacial, a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9 °C (at 126 ka) and 4.1 °C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations (COSMOS) and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the last interglacial, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period, e.g. at 118 ka ago. The climate model simulations suggest that the SST seasonality changes documented in our last interglacial coral Sr/Ca records are representative of larger regions within the tropical North Atlantic. These simulations also suggest that the reconstructed SST seasonality increase during the mid-last interglacial is caused primarily by summer warming. Furthermore, a 124 ka old coral documents evidence of decadal SST variability in the tropical North Atlantic during the last interglacial, akin to that observed in modern instrumental records. Our results indicate that the dense theca walls of brain coral skeletons (e.g., Diploria strigosa) can provide robust seasonally resolved proxy records of tropical SST and reliable 230Th/U-ages for the last interglacial period.
Diet of upper paleolithic modern humans: evidence from microwear texture analysis.

PubMed

El Zaatari, Sireen; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2014-04-01

This article presents the results of the occlusal molar microwear texture analysis of 32 adult Upper Paleolithic modern humans from a total of 21 European sites dating to marine isotope stages 3 and 2. The occlusal molar microwear textures of these specimens were analyzed with the aim of examining the effects of the climatic, as well as the cultural, changes on the diets of the Upper Paleolithic modern humans. The results of this analysis do not reveal any environmentally driven dietary shifts for the Upper Paleolithic hominins indicating that the climatic and their associated paleoecological changes did not force these humans to significantly alter their diets in order to survive. However, the microwear texture analysis does detect culturally related changes in the Upper Paleolithic humans' diets. Specifically, significant differences in diet were found between the earlier Upper Paleolithic individuals, i.e., those belonging to the Aurignacian and Gravettian contexts, and the later Magdalenian ones, such that the diet of the latter group was more varied and included more abrasive foods compared with those of the former. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Clinal variation of some mammals during the Holocene in Missouri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purdue, James R.

1980-03-01

Eastern cottontail ( Sylvilagus floridanus), fox squirrel ( Sciurus niger), and gray squirrel ( Sciurus carolinensis) were examined for clinal variation during the Holocene. Modern samples of all three species displayed strong east-west patterns along the western edge of the eastern deciduous forest: S. floridanus and S. niger decrease and S. carolinensis increases in size. Archeological samples of S. carolinensis from Rodgers Shelter (23BE125), Benton County, Missouri, and Graham Cave (23MT2), Montgomery County, Missouri, indicated an increase in size from early to middle Holocene. Sylvilagus floridanus from Rodgers Shelter decreased in size from early to middle Holocene and then increased during the late Holocene to modern proportions. A literature survey reveals that clinal variation is a common phenomenon among modern homeotherms. In introduced species, clinal variation has developed after relatively few generations, indicating rapid adaptations to environmental conditions; often winter climatic variables are implicated. Morphological variation in the study species during the Holocene is interpreted as a response to changing climates. Studies of morphological clines may lead to another valuable data source for reconstructing past ecologies.
Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland

PubMed Central

Ólafsdóttir, Guðbjörg Ásta; Westfall, Kristen M.; Edvardsson, Ragnar; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

2014-01-01

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500–1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400–1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change. PMID:24403343
Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland.

PubMed

Ólafsdóttir, Guðbjörg Ásta; Westfall, Kristen M; Edvardsson, Ragnar; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

2014-02-22

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500-1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400-1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change.
[The application of climatic therapy in the health resorts of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus: the current state-of-the-art and the prospects for the further development].

PubMed

Pestereva, N M; Khechumyan, A F; Udovenko, I L; Bekhterev, V N

2016-01-01

The present review summarizes the data published in the domestic and foreign literature concerning the history of climatic therapy, the current concepts of the mechanisms of action of the climatic and weather factors on the human body, the modern therapeutic modalities and technologies for health promotion. We consider not only the achievements but also the problems arising from insufficient knowledge of the impacts of current climate and extreme weather conditions on the state of human health and some disputable issues of the new methods and technologies of climatic therapy. the promising areas of further research and developments pertaining to climatic therapy as practiced under conditions of the Black Sea coast resorts.
Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Wasatch Mountains Inferred from Glacier Mass-Balance and Ice-Flow Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bash, E. A.; Laabs, B. J.

2006-12-01

The Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah contained numerous valley glaciers east and immediately downwind of Lake Bonneville during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). While the extent and chronology of glaciation in the Wasatch Mountains and the rise and fall of Lake Bonneville are becoming increasingly well understood, inferences of climatic conditions during the LGM for this area and elsewhere in the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Basin have yielded a wide range of temperature depression estimates. For example, previous estimates of temperature depression based on glacier and lake reconstructions in this region generally range from 7° to 9° C colder than modern. Glacier modeling studies for Little Cottonwood Canyon (northern Wasatch Mountains) suggest that such temperature depressions would have been accompanied by precipitation increases of about 3 to 1x modern, respectively (McCoy and Williams, 1985; Laabs et al., 2006). However, interpretations of other proxies suggest that temperature depression in this area may have been significantly greater, up to 13° C (e.g., Kaufman 2003), which would likely have been accompanied by less precipitation than modern. To address this issue, we reconstructed ice extent in the American Fork Canyon of the Wasatch Mountains and applied glacier modeling methods of Plummer and Phillips (2003) to infer climatic conditions during the LGM. Field mapping indicates that glaciers occupied an area of more than 20 km2 in the canyon and reached maximum lengths of about 9 km. To link ice extent to climatic changes, a physically based, two- dimensional numerical model of glacier mass balance and ice flow was applied to these valleys. The modeling approach allows the combined effects of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation on net mass balance of a drainage basin to be explored. Results of model experiments indicate that a temperature depression of less than 9° C in the American Fork Canyon would have been accompanied by greater precipitation than modern, whereas greater temperature depressions would have required less-than-modern precipitation to sustain glaciers in the Wasatch Mountains. Without independent estimates of either temperature or precipitation for the LGM, model results do not provide a unique combination of these two variables based on simulated ice extent. However, the reconstructed pattern of glaciation in the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains indicates a sharp westward decline in glacier equilibrium- line altitudes in valleys immediately downwind of Lake Bonneville (Munroe et al, 2006), which suggests that precipitation in the Wasatch Mountains was enhanced during the LGM. Therefore, model results can be used to set limits on the temperature and precipitation. We estimate that, if temperatures during the LGM were 6° to 8° C less than modern, precipitation was 3 to 1.5x modern. Such precipitation increases would reflect the importance of Lake Bonneville as a moisture source for valleys in the Wasatch Mountains, as suggested by previous studies.
Toward a 30m resolution time series of historical global urban expansion: exploring variation in North American cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuhlmacher, M.; Wang, C.; Georgescu, M.; Tellman, B.; Balling, R.; Clinton, N. E.; Collins, L.; Goldblatt, R.; Hanson, G.

2016-12-01

Global representations of modern day urban land use and land cover (LULC) extent are becoming increasingly prevalent. Yet considerable uncertainties in the representation of built environment extent (i.e. global classifications generated from 250m resolution MODIS imagery or the United States' National Land Cover Database) remain because of the lack of a systematic, globally consistent methodological approach. We aim to increase resolution, accuracy, and improve upon past efforts by establishing a data-driven definition of the urban landscape, based on Landsat 5, 7 & 8 imagery and ancillary data sets. Continuous and discrete machine learning classification algorithms have been developed in Google Earth Engine (GEE), a powerful online cloud-based geospatial storage and parallel-computing platform. Additionally, thousands of ground truth points have been selected from high resolution imagery to fill in the previous lack of accurate data to be used for training and validation. We will present preliminary classification and accuracy assessments for select cities in the United States and Mexico. Our approach has direct implications for development of projected urban growth that is grounded on realistic identification of urbanizing hot-spots, with consequences for local to regional scale climate change, energy demand, water stress, human health, urban-ecological interactions, and efforts used to prioritize adaptation and mitigation strategies to offset large-scale climate change. Future work to apply the built-up detection algorithm globally and yearly is underway in a partnership between GEE, University of California in San Diego, and Arizona State University.

Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

2014-12-01

The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.
Changes in Tilt of Mars Axis

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-11-21

Modern-day Mars experiences cyclical changes in climate and, consequently, ice distribution. Unlike Earth, the obliquity or tilt of Mars changes substantially on timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years.
Weather and the Built Environment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This course provides broadcast meteorologists, educators, and the public with an overview of the evolution of our modern urban environment with a focus on impacts on the urban watershed, air quality, and climate.
Last Glacial vegetation and climate change in the southern Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miebach, Andrea; Chen, Chunzhu; Litt, Thomas

2015-04-01

Reconstructing past climatic and environmental conditions is a key task for understanding the history of modern mankind. The interaction between environmental change and migration processes of the modern Homo sapiens from its source area in Africa into Europe is still poorly understood. The principal corridor of the first human dispersal into Europe and also later migration dynamics crossed the Middle East. Therefore, the southern Levant is a key area to investigate the paleoenvironment during times of human migration. In this sense, the Last Glacial (MIS 4-2) is particularly interesting to investigate for two reasons. Firstly, secondary expansions of the modern Homo sapiens are expected to occur during this period. Secondly, there are ongoing discussions on the environmental conditions causing the prominent lake level high stand of Lake Lisan, the precursor of the Dead Sea. This high stand even culminated in the merging of Lake Lisan and Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee). To provide an independent proxy for paleoenvironmental reconstructions in the southern Levant during the Last Glacial, we investigated pollen assemblages of the Dead Sea/Lake Lisan and Lake Kinneret. Located at the Dead Sea Transform, the freshwater Lake Kinneret is nowadays connected via the Jordan with the hypersaline Dead Sea, which occupies Earth's lowest elevation on land. The southern Levant is a transition area of three different vegetation types. Therefore, also small changes in the climate conditions effect the vegetation and can be registered in the pollen assemblage. In contrast to the Holocene, our preliminary results suggest another vegetation pattern during the Last Glacial. The vegetation belt of the fragile Mediterranean biome did no longer exist in the vicinity of Lake Kinneret. Moreover, the vegetation was rather similar in the whole study area. A steppe vegetation with dwarf shrubs, herbs, and grasses predominated. Thermophilous elements like oaks occurred in limited amounts. The limiting factor for tree growth was precipitation. Consequently, the precipitation gradient was not as strong as today, and semiarid conditions prevailed in the southern Levant during the Last Glacial. Our study will contribute to the overall aim to reconstruct the way of modern humans to Europe and to understand the complex connection between climate and vegetation change in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The National Deep-Sea Coral and Sponge Database: A Comprehensive Resource for United States Deep-Sea Coral and Sponge Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dornback, M.; Hourigan, T.; Etnoyer, P.; McGuinn, R.; Cross, S. L.

2014-12-01

Research on deep-sea corals has expanded rapidly over the last two decades, as scientists began to realize their value as long-lived structural components of high biodiversity habitats and archives of environmental information. The NOAA Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program's National Database for Deep-Sea Corals and Sponges is a comprehensive resource for georeferenced data on these organisms in U.S. waters. The National Database currently includes more than 220,000 deep-sea coral records representing approximately 880 unique species. Database records from museum archives, commercial and scientific bycatch, and from journal publications provide baseline information with relatively coarse spatial resolution dating back as far as 1842. These data are complemented by modern, in-situ submersible observations with high spatial resolution, from surveys conducted by NOAA and NOAA partners. Management of high volumes of modern high-resolution observational data can be challenging. NOAA is working with our data partners to incorporate this occurrence data into the National Database, along with images and associated information related to geoposition, time, biology, taxonomy, environment, provenance, and accuracy. NOAA is also working to link associated datasets collected by our program's research, to properly archive them to the NOAA National Data Centers, to build a robust metadata record, and to establish a standard protocol to simplify the process. Access to the National Database is provided through an online mapping portal. The map displays point based records from the database. Records can be refined by taxon, region, time, and depth. The queries and extent used to view the map can also be used to download subsets of the database. The database, map, and website is already in use by NOAA, regional fishery management councils, and regional ocean planning bodies, but we envision it as a model that can expand to accommodate data on a global scale.
Modernizing the MagIC Paleomagnetic and Rock Magnetic Database Technology Stack to Encourage Code Reuse and Reproducible Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnett, R.; Koppers, A. A. P.; Jarboe, N.; Jonestrask, L.; Tauxe, L.; Constable, C.

2016-12-01

The Magnetics Information Consortium (https://earthref.org/MagIC/) develops and maintains a database and web application for supporting the paleo-, geo-, and rock magnetic scientific community. Historically, this objective has been met with an Oracle database and a Perl web application at the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC). The Oracle Enterprise Cluster at SDSC, however, was decommissioned in July of 2016 and the cost for MagIC to continue using Oracle became prohibitive. This provided MagIC with a unique opportunity to reexamine the entire technology stack and data model. MagIC has developed an open-source web application using the Meteor (http://meteor.com) framework and a MongoDB database. The simplicity of the open-source full-stack framework that Meteor provides has improved MagIC's development pace and the increased flexibility of the data schema in MongoDB encouraged the reorganization of the MagIC Data Model. As a result of incorporating actively developed open-source projects into the technology stack, MagIC has benefited from their vibrant software development communities. This has translated into a more modern web application that has significantly improved the user experience for the paleo-, geo-, and rock magnetic scientific community.
The Ogallala Agro-Climate Tool (Technical Description)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A Visual Basic agro-climate application capable of estimating irrigation demand and crop water use over the Ogallala Aquifer region is described here. The application’s meteorological database consists of daily precipitation and temperature data from 141 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations ...
Integrating heterogeneous databases in clustered medic care environments using object-oriented technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakore, Arun K.; Sauer, Frank

1994-05-01

The organization of modern medical care environments into disease-related clusters, such as a cancer center, a diabetes clinic, etc., has the side-effect of introducing multiple heterogeneous databases, often containing similar information, within the same organization. This heterogeneity fosters incompatibility and prevents the effective sharing of data amongst applications at different sites. Although integration of heterogeneous databases is now feasible, in the medical arena this is often an ad hoc process, not founded on proven database technology or formal methods. In this paper we illustrate the use of a high-level object- oriented semantic association method to model information found in different databases into an integrated conceptual global model that integrates the databases. We provide examples from the medical domain to illustrate an integration approach resulting in a consistent global view, without attacking the autonomy of the underlying databases.
Problems of modern urban drainage in developing countries.

PubMed

Silveira, A L L

2002-01-01

Socio-economic factors in developing countries make it more difficult to solve problems of urban drainage than in countries that are more advanced. Factors inhibiting the adoption of modern solutions include: (1) in matters of urban drainage, 19th-century sanitary philosophy still dominates; (2) both legal and clandestine land settlement limits the space that modern solutions require; (3) contamination of storm runoff by foul sewage, sediment and garbage prevents adoption of developed-country practices; (4) climatic and socio-economic factors favour the growth of epidemics where runoff is retained for flood-avoidance and to increase infiltration; (5) lack of a technological basis for adequate drainage management and design; (6) lack of the interaction between community and city administration that is needed to obtain modern solutions to urban drainage problems. Awareness of these difficulties is fundamental to the search for modern and viable solutions appropriate for developing countries.
Predicting woodrat (Neotoma) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Felisa A.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.
Modern dust aerosol availability in northwestern China.

PubMed

Wang, Xunming; Cheng, Hong; Che, Huizheng; Sun, Jimin; Lu, Huayu; Qiang, Mingrui; Hua, Ting; Zhu, Bingqi; Li, Hui; Ma, Wenyong; Lang, Lili; Jiao, Linlin; Li, Danfeng

2017-08-18

The sources of modern dust aerosols and their emission magnitudes are fundamental for linking dust with climate and environment. Using field sample data, wind tunnel experiments and statistical analysis, we determined the contributions of wadis, gobi (stony desert), lakebeds, riverbeds, and interdunes to modern dust aerosol availability in the three important potential dust sources including the Tarim Basin, Qaidam Basin, and Ala Shan Plateau of China. The results show that riverbeds are the dominant landscape for modern dust aerosol availabilities in the Qaidam Basin, while wadis, gobi, and interdunes are the main landscapes over the Ala Shan Plateau and Tarim Basin. The Ala Shan Plateau and Tarim Basin are potential dust sources in northwestern China, while the Qaidam Basin is not a major source of the modern dust aerosols nowadays, and it is not acting in a significant way to the Loess Plateau presently. Moreover, most of modern dust aerosol emissions from China originated from aeolian processes with low intensities rather than from major dust events.
Development of a national anthropogenic heating database with an extrapolation for international cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sailor, David J.; Georgescu, Matei; Milne, Jeffrey M.; Hart, Melissa A.

2015-10-01

Given increasing utility of numerical models to examine urban impacts on meteorology and climate, there exists an urgent need for accurate representation of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating data, an important component of the urban energy budget for cities across the world. Incorporation of anthropogenic heating data as inputs to existing climate modeling systems has direct societal implications ranging from improved prediction of energy demand to health assessment, but such data are lacking for most cities. To address this deficiency we have applied a standardized procedure to develop a national database of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for 61 of the largest cities in the United Stated (U.S.). Recognizing the importance of spatial scale, the anthropogenic heating database developed includes the city scale and the accompanying greater metropolitan area. Our analysis reveals that a single profile function can adequately represent anthropogenic heating during summer but two profile functions are required in winter, one for warm climate cities and another for cold climate cities. On average, although anthropogenic heating is 40% larger in winter than summer, the electricity sector contribution peaks during summer and is smallest in winter. Because such data are similarly required for international cities where urban climate assessments are also ongoing, we have made a simple adjustment accounting for different international energy consumption rates relative to the U.S. to generate seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for a range of global cities. The methodological approach presented here is flexible and straightforwardly applicable to cities not modeled because of presently unavailable data. Because of the anticipated increase in global urban populations for many decades to come, characterizing this fundamental aspect of the urban environment - anthropogenic heating - is an essential element toward continued progress in urban climate assessment.
Intra-reach headwater fish assemblage structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2017-01-01

Large-scale conservation efforts can take advantage of modern large databases and regional modeling and assessment methods. However, these broad-scale efforts often assume uniform average habitat conditions and/or species assemblages within stream reaches.
Toward an integrated knowledge environment to support modern oncology.

PubMed

Blake, Patrick M; Decker, David A; Glennon, Timothy M; Liang, Yong Michael; Losko, Sascha; Navin, Nicholas; Suh, K Stephen

2011-01-01

Around the world, teams of researchers continue to develop a wide range of systems to capture, store, and analyze data including treatment, patient outcomes, tumor registries, next-generation sequencing, single-nucleotide polymorphism, copy number, gene expression, drug chemistry, drug safety, and toxicity. Scientists mine, curate, and manually annotate growing mountains of data to produce high-quality databases, while clinical information is aggregated in distant systems. Databases are currently scattered, and relationships between variables coded in disparate datasets are frequently invisible. The challenge is to evolve oncology informatics from a "systems" orientation of standalone platforms and silos into an "integrated knowledge environments" that will connect "knowable" research data with patient clinical information. The aim of this article is to review progress toward an integrated knowledge environment to support modern oncology with a focus on supporting scientific discovery and improving cancer care.
Sustainable agricultural practices: energy inputs and outputs, pesticide, fertilizer and greenhouse gas management.

PubMed

Wang, Yue-Wen

2009-01-01

The food security issue was addressed by the development of "modern agriculture" in the last century. But food safety issues and environment degradation were the consequences suffered as a result. Climate change has been recognized as the result of release of stored energy in fossil fuel into the atmosphere. Homogeneous crop varieties, machinery, pesticides and fertilizers are the foundation of uniform commodities in modern agriculture. Fossil fuels are used to manufacture fertilizers and pesticides as well as the energy source for agricultural machinery, thus characterizes modern agriculture. Bio-fuel production and the possibility of the agriculture system as a form of energy input are discussed.
Spatio-temporal examination of precipitation isotopes from the North American monsoon in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah from 2014 to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulley-Cordova, C. L.; Bowen, G. J.

2017-12-01

A significant summertime feature of climate in the southwestern United States (US) is the North American monsoon (NAM), also known as the Mexican monsoon, Arizona monsoon, and the southwestern United States monsoon. NAM is a crucial contributor to total annual precipitation in the Four Corners region of the US. Modern investigation of NAM in this region using stable isotopes has been poorly studied. This study characterizes the spatio-temporal changes of NAM based on stable isotopic results from 40 sites, located within the boundaries of the Navajo Nation, in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah from 2014 to 2017. Sample collections were collected monthly at each site from May to October. Examination of temporal trends of precipitation revealed strong monthly and interannual changes; spatial analysis showed weak large-scale relationships across the study area. Analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation, surface, ground, and spring waters can be used to interpret the isotopic differences in the modern hydro-climate of the Navajo Nation and Colorado Plateau to help predict future hydro-climate changes and its implications on future water resources.
Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2015-01-01

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to 2011. The mean 80-m wind exhibits strong seasonality and large spatial variability, with higher (lower) wind speeds in the...
Modelling Climate/Global Change and Assessing Environmental Risks for Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lykosov, V. N.; Kabanov, M. V.; Heimann, M.; Gordov, E. P.

2009-04-01

The state-of-the-art climate models are based on a combined atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. A central direction of their development is associated with an increasingly accurate description of all physical processes participating in climate formation. In modeling global climate, it is necessary to reconstruct seasonal and monthly mean values, seasonal variability (monsoon cycle, parameters of storm-tracks, etc.), climatic variability (its dominating modes, such as El Niño or Arctic Oscillation), etc. At the same time, it is quite urgent now to use modern mathematical models in studying regional climate and ecological peculiarities, in particular, that of Northern Eurasia. It is related with the fact that, according to modern ideas, natural environment in mid- and high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere is most sensitive to the observed global climate changes. One should consider such tasks of modeling regional climate as detailed reconstruction of its characteristics, investigation of the peculiarities of hydrological cycle, estimation of the possibility of extreme phenomena to occur, and investigation of the consequences of the regional climate changes for the environment and socio-economic relations as its basic tasks. Changes in nature and climate in Siberia are of special interest in view of the global change in the Earth system. The vast continental territory of Siberia is undoubtedly a ponderable natural territorial region of Eurasian continent, which is characterized by the various combinations of climate-forming factors. Forests, water, and wetland areas are situated on a significant part of Siberia. They play planetary important regulating role due to the processes of emission and accumulation of the main greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.). Evidence of the enhanced rates of the warming observed in the region and the consequences of such warming for natural environment are undoubtedly important reason for integrated regional investigations in this region of the planet. Reported is an overview of some risk consequences of Climate/Global Change for Siberia environment as follows from results of current scientific activity in climate monitoring and modelling. At present, the challenge facing the weather and climate scientists is to improve the prediction of interactions between weather/climate and Earth system. Taking into account significantly increased computing capacity, a special attention in the report is paid to perspectives of the Earth system modelling.
Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

2016-04-01

While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between theory and practice. Along with its usage in graduate and postgraduate education, "Climate" is used as a framework for a developed basic information course on climate change for common public. In this course basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are described for non-specialists. The course will also include links to relevant information resources on topical issues of Earth Sciences and a number of case studies, which are carried out for a selected region to consolidate the received knowledge.
DTIC (Defense Technical Information Center) Model Action Plan for Incorporating DGIS (DOD Gateway Information System) Capabilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-01

Information System (DGIS) is being developed to provide the DD crmjnj t with a modern tool to access diverse dtabaiees and extract information products...this community with a modern tool for accessing these databases and extracting information products from them. Since the Defense Technical Information...adjunct to DROLS xesults. The study , thereor. centerd around obtaining background information inside the unit on that unit’s users who request DROLS

Gulf of Mexico Climate-History Calibration Study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spear, Jessica W.; Poore, Richard Z.

2010-01-01

Reliable instrumental records of past climate are available for about the last 150 years only. To supplement the instrumental record, reconstructions of past climate are made from natural recorders such as trees, ice, corals, and microfossils preserved in sediments. These proxy records provide information on the rate and magnitude of past climate variability, factors that are critical to distinguishing between natural and human-induced climate change in the present. However, the value of proxy records is heavily dependent on calibration between the chemistry of the natural recorder and of the modern environmental conditions. The Gulf of Mexico Climate and Environmental History Project is currently undertaking a climate-history calibration study with material collected from an automated sediment trap. The primary focus of the calibration study is to provide a better calibration of low-latitude environmental conditions and shell chemistry of calcareous microfossils, such as planktic Foraminifera.
Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thiele, O. (Editor); Schiffer, R. A. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.
PAGES-Powell North America 2k database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKay, N.

2014-12-01

Syntheses of paleoclimate data in North America are essential for understanding long-term spatiotemporal variability in climate and for properly assessing risk on decadal and longer timescales. Existing reconstructions of the past 2,000 years rely almost exclusively on tree-ring records, which can underestimate low-frequency variability and rarely extend beyond the last millennium. Meanwhile, many records from the full spectrum of paleoclimate archives are available and hold the potential of enhancing our understanding of past climate across North America over the past 2000 years. The second phase of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) North America 2k project began in 2014, with a primary goal of assembling these disparate paleoclimate records into a unified database. This effort is currently supported by the USGS Powell Center together with PAGES. Its success requires grassroots support from the community of researchers developing and interpreting paleoclimatic evidence relevant to the past 2000 years. Most likely, fewer than half of the published records appropriate for this database are publicly archived, and far fewer include the data needed to quantify geochronologic uncertainty, or to concisely describe how best to interpret the data in context of a large-scale paleoclimatic synthesis. The current version of the database includes records that (1) have been published in a peer-reviewed journal (including evidence of the record's relationship to climate), (2) cover a substantial portion of the past 2000 yr (>300 yr for annual records, >500 yr for lower frequency records) at relatively high resolution (<50 yr/observation), and (3) have reasonably small and quantifiable age uncertainty. Presently, the database includes records from boreholes, ice cores, lake and marine sediments, speleothems, and tree rings. This poster presentation will display the site locations and basic metadata of the records currently in the database. We invite anyone with interest in participating in the project to visit the poster or contact the author to help identify and assimilate relevant records that have not yet been included. The goal is to develop a comprehensive and open-access resource that will serve the diverse community interested in the climate of the Common Era in North America.
Influence of water stress on the carbon isotopic composition of modern plants: Implications for C4 plant appearance in Indian subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, S.; Ghosh, S.; Sanyal, P.

2016-12-01

The carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of modern terrestrial plants (C3 and C4) provides the baseline to understand past vegetation composition, paleodietary changes and animal migration etc. Accuracy of past environment reconstruction is dependent on the end-member d13C values of plants which found to vary in regional scale. For instance, the d13C values of Indian C3 plants (d13CC3) are 1 to 2‰ more negative compared to global mean. As observed, most of the previous database is devoid of samples from tropical monsoon realm (like India) and the difference between global and regional mean may introduce errors in vegetation reconstruction. To constrain end-member d13CC3 value, published and newly generated results from wide range of mean annual precipitation (MAP: 1-11,700 mm) are compiled which is ca. 1.5 higher in sample size (n=2440) compared to previous database. Using logarithmic function, new relationship between d13C value and MAP (d13CC3 (‰) =20.1585(0.3061)-1.1276(0.0489)ln(MAP+700)) is proposed. The modeled mean d13CC3 value (-28.9‰) is close to average d13CC3 value for Indian plants (-29.1‰) and suggests the importance of vegetation from low-latitudinal tropical region in global compilation. It was observed that C3 plants, on a global scale, are less sensitive to wet climate relative to dry condition. This inference is in agreement with the paleoclimatic data from Indian subcontinent for the late Quaternary period. Despite well established correlation between d13CC3 value and MAP, previous investigation from Indian subcontinent used fixed end-member values to reconstruct past vegetation and total change in the d13C value of proxies was attributed to changes in relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants. Using region-specific mean d13C value of plants, after correcting for changing MAP and error propagation, existence of C4 before ca. 11 Ma plant is observed; earlier to previous reported timing.
EPA U.S. Nine-region MARKAL DATABASE, DATABASE DOCUMENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

The evolution of the energy system in the United States is an important factor in future environmental outcomes including air quality and climate change. Given this, decision makers need to understand how a changing energy landscape will impact future air quality and contribute ...
Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. For extremely case of the Iceland agriculture we show that drop of agriculture production in unfavorable states of space weather leads to mass mortality from famines correlated with phase of solar activity with high confi- dence level. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in condition of drastic and fast change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast and unexpected shift of numerous agriculture regions in the world to state of "high risk agriculture zone". Publications on the theme of review: I. "INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", Solar Physics 223: 335-356, 2004. c 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers II. "SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES - FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL'NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473-481 c Springer 2005
GHG Mitigation Options Database (GMOD) and Analysis Tools.

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing consensus among scientists that the primary cause of climate change is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Given the strengthening science behind the human influence on climate change, it will be necessary for the global community to use low-carbon te...
Resolving relationships between several Neolithic and Mesolithic populations in Northern Eurasia using geometric morphometrics.

PubMed

Stansfield Bulygina, Ekaterina; Rasskasova, Anna; Berezina, Natalia; Soficaru, Andrei D

2017-09-01

Remains from several Eastern European and Siberian Mesolithic and Neolithic sites are analysed to clarify their biological relationships. We assume that groups' geographical distances correlate with genetic and, therefore, morphological distances between them. Material includes complete male crania from several Mesolithic and Neolithic burial sites across Northern Eurasia and from several modern populations. Geometric morphometrics and multivariate statistical techniques are applied to explore morphological trends, group distances, and correlations with their geographical position, climate, and the time of origin. Despite an overlap in the morphology among the modern and archeological groups, some of them show significant morphological distances. Geographical parameters account for only a small proportion of cranial variation in the sample, with larger variance explained by geography and age together. Expectations of isolation by distance are met in some but not in all cases. Climate accounts for a large proportion of autocorrelation with geography. Nearest-neighbor joining trees demonstrate group relationships predicted by the regression on geography and on climate. The obtained results are discussed in application to relationships between particular groups. Unlike the Ukrainian Mesolithic, the Yuzhny Oleni Ostrov Mesolithic displays a high morphological affinity with several groups from Northern Eurasia of both European and Asian origin. A possibility of a common substrate for the Yuzhny Oleni Ostrov Mesolithic and Siberian Neolithic groups is reviewed. The Siberian Neolithic is shown to have morphological connection with both modern Siberian groups and the Native North Americans. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Variations in global thunderstorm activity inferred from the OTD records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickolaenko, A. P.; Hayakawa, M.; Sekiguchi, M.

2006-03-01

We use the data on the planetary distribution of thunderstorms collected by optical transient detector (OTD) to derive the properties of global electric activity. Processing of optical data indicates that modern observations from space confirm the general concept of thunderstorm distribution and motion. Close similarity is demonstrated between the World Meteorological Organization data and modern records including Carnegie curve. Departures noted might be caused by thunderstorms redistribution owing to climate change; the issue deserves a special examination.
Formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water during the Plio-Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karas, C.; Goldstein, S. L.; deMenocal, P. B.

2017-12-01

Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) plays a fundamental role in modern climate change. It is an important sink for anthropogenic CO2, it represents an important source water in several (sub)tropical upwelling regions and it is the coldwater route from the Southern Hemisphere to the North Atlantic Ocean replacing North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). During the last 4 million years, which marks the transition from the warm Pliocene climate towards icehouse conditions, the formation of this watermass is still largely unknown. We here present a multi-proxy approach using neodymium isotopes (ɛNd) on Fe-Mn encrusted foraminifera and coupled benthic Mg/Ca and stable isotopes from South Atlantic Site 516, within AAIW, to reconstruct its variability. Our data show that the modern formation of AAIW started about 3 million years ago, indicated by a distinct drop of ɛNd by 1.5, a cooling and freshening of benthic TMg/Ca by 8°C and a drop in benthic d13C values towards modern times. We interpret these changes as a reduced inflow of Pacific waters into the South Atlantic and the onset of modern deep vertical mixing at the source regions of AAIW near the polar front. These processes had significant effects on the CO2 storage of the ocean that supported global cooling and the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.
Examples of Use of SINBAD Database for Nuclear Data and Code Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodeli, Ivan; Žerovnik, Gašper; Milocco, Alberto

2017-09-01

The SINBAD database currently contains compilations and evaluations of over 100 shielding benchmark experiments. The SINBAD database is widely used for code and data validation. Materials covered include: Air, N. O, H2O, Al, Be, Cu, graphite, concrete, Fe, stainless steel, Pb, Li, Ni, Nb, SiC, Na, W, V and mixtures thereof. Over 40 organisations from 14 countries and 2 international organisations have contributed data and work in support of SINBAD. Examples of the use of the database in the scope of different international projects, such as the Working Party on Evaluation Cooperation of the OECD and the European Fusion Programme demonstrate the merit and possible usage of the database for the validation of modern nuclear data evaluations and new computer codes.
The ESID Online Database network.

PubMed

Guzman, D; Veit, D; Knerr, V; Kindle, G; Gathmann, B; Eades-Perner, A M; Grimbacher, B

2007-03-01

Primary immunodeficiencies (PIDs) belong to the group of rare diseases. The European Society for Immunodeficiencies (ESID), is establishing an innovative European patient and research database network for continuous long-term documentation of patients, in order to improve the diagnosis, classification, prognosis and therapy of PIDs. The ESID Online Database is a web-based system aimed at data storage, data entry, reporting and the import of pre-existing data sources in an enterprise business-to-business integration (B2B). The online database is based on Java 2 Enterprise System (J2EE) with high-standard security features, which comply with data protection laws and the demands of a modern research platform. The ESID Online Database is accessible via the official website (http://www.esid.org/). Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Auchman, Renate; Aguilar, Enric

2017-04-01

In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station re- locations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, relocations (to airports) efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel air temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be global radiation, wind, humidity and cloud cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and wet-bulb temperature are potentially important.
Synthesis of eukaryotic lipid biomarkers in the bacterial domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welander, P. V.; Banta, A. B.; Lee, A. K.; Wei, J. H.

2017-12-01

Lipid biomarkers are organic molecules preserved in sediments and sedimentary rocks that can function as geological proxies for certain microbial taxa or for specific environmental conditions. These molecular fossils provide a link between organisms and their environments in both modern and ancient settings and have afforded significant insight into ancient climatic events, mass extinctions, and various evolutionary transitions throughout Earth's history. However, the proper interpretation of lipid biomarkers is dependent on a broad understanding of their diagenetic precursors in modern systems. This includes understanding the taphonomic transformations that these molecules undergo, their biosynthetic pathways, and the ecological conditions that affect their cellular production. In this study, we focus on one group of lipid biomarkers - the sterols. These are polycyclic isoprenoidal lipids that have a high preservation potential and play a critical role in the physiology of most eukaryotes. However, the synthesis and function of these lipids in the bacterial domain has not been fully explored. Here we utilize a combination of bioinformatics, microbial genetics, and biochemistry to demonstrate that bacterial sterol producers are more prevalent in environmental metagenomic samples than in the genomic databases of cultured organisms and to identify novel proteins required to synthesize and modify sterols in bacteria. These proteins represent a distinct pathway for sterol synthesis exclusive to bacteria and indicate that sterol synthesis in bacteria may have evolved independently of eukaryotic sterol biosynthesis. Taken together, these results demonstrate how studies in extant bacteria can provide insight into the biological sources and the biosynthetic pathways of specific lipid biomarkers and in turn may allow for more robust interpretation of biomarker signatures.
Paleoclimatic Reconstructions From Plant Macrofossils For The Last Glacial Maximum, Middle Holocene, And Latest Holocene In The American Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, R. S.; Anderson, K.; Pelltier, R.; Strickland, L. E.; Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2013-12-01

Fossil plant remains preserved in a variety of geologic settings provide direct evidence of where individual species lived in the past, and there are long-established methods for paleoclimatic reconstructions based on comparisons between modern and past geographic ranges of plant species. In principle, these methods use relatively straightforward procedures that frequently result in what appear to be very precise estimates of past temperature and moisture conditions. The reconstructed estimates can be mapped for specific time slices for synoptic-scale reconstructions for data-model comparisons. Although paleobotanical data can provide apparently precise estimates of past climatic conditions, it is difficult to gauge the associated uncertainties. The estimates may be affected by the choice of modern calibration data, reconstruction methods employed, and whether the climatic variable under consideration is an important determinant of the distributions of the species being considered. For time-slice reconstructions, there are also issues involving the adequacy of the spatial coverage of the fossil data and the degree of variability through time. To examine some of these issues, we estimated annual precipitation and summer and winter temperatures for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 × 1000 yr BP), Middle Holocene (MH, 6000 × 500 yr BP), and Latest Holocene (LH, the last 500 yrs), based on the application of four quantitative approaches to paleobotanical assemblages preserved in packrat middens in the American Southwest. Our results indicate that historic variability and difficulties in interpolating climatic values to fossil sites may impose ranges of uncertainties of more than × 1°C for temperature and × 50 mm for annual precipitation. Climatic estimates based on modern midden assemblages generally fall within these ranges, although there may be biases that differ regionally. Samples of similar age and location provide similar climatic estimates, and the four approaches usually result in anomalies of the same sign, but with differing amplitudes. There is considerable variability among the anomalies for samples within each time slice, and different time slices have different geographic coverages of samples. The reconstructed temperature anomalies are similar between the MH and LH time slices, and generally fall within the uncertainties related to the modern climatic data. LGM anomalies were significantly colder, and for many samples exceeded -5°C in both winter and summer. There are what appear to be significant MH annual precipitation anomalies to the south (dry after 6.2 ka)and to the northwest (wet before 6.2 ka), but it may be misleading to compare these, given the differences in age. Positive annual precipitation anomalies for the LGM are more than 100 mm in the northwest, and smaller in the northeast and south.
Evaluating interannual variability in speleothem records of North American monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truebe, S. A.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Kimbrough, A.; Henderson, G. M.; Barmett, H.; Hlohowskyj, S.

2013-12-01

Speleothems can produce long, high resolution, absolutely-dated records of past climate. They are especially useful for past climate reconstruction in areas such as the southwestern United States, where traditional sources of past climate information (corals, lake or ocean sediments, ice cores) are absent. Here we present two records of Holocene rainfall variability from two Arizona caves less than 40km apart: Cave of the Bells (COB) and Fort Huachuca Cave (FHC), spanning 7000 and 4000 years respectively. Both records show a trend towards more negative oxygen isotope values into the modern era. Extensive monthly monitoring suggests that speleothem oxygen isotope composition is an average of the oxygen isotope composition of the summer North American monsoon (NAM) and winter frontal storms, with a bias towards winter likely due to lack of infiltration of intense monsoon rainfall. This bias is stronger in COB than in FHC. Winter rainfall has had an increasing influence at both sites from the mid-Holocene until the present; in other words, the NAM has been weakening over the past few thousand years, in step with changes in other monsoon systems and Northern Hemisphere insolation. Although the records are similar in overall trend, short-term variability is inconsistent. When providing information to water managers about future rainfall availability in the Southwest, having only millennial-scale information does not help much! To investigate the differences between the two records, we use a combination of approaches, including assessing age model uncertainty and modern climate heterogeneity, and monitoring cave-specific processes that may be overprinting the climate signal. We assess age model uncertainty using a statistical age-modeling program, which allows us to develop many physically plausible time series for the same age-depth data. With this age modeling tool, we critically assess whether particular isotope excursions correspond between speleothems and if they are temporally related to global climate events. However, even correlation and coherence analyses across the suites of time series for each speleothem do not elicit a common high-frequency climate story. We further investigate the discrepancy between cave records by assessing modern climate heterogeneity using historical observations. Climate in the arid Southwest is spatially heterogeneous, especially during the summer monsoon, contributing to the mismatch between these two climate records. Finally, after a decade of monitoring at COB, we recognize that storage and mixing in the epikarst above the cave affect what parts (if any) of the seasonal signal are recorded in a speleothem. In addition to new insights about North American monsoon behavior during the Holocene, the important lesson from these speleothem records is that in caves, because of underlying (overlying?) climate heterogeneity, replication of a common climate signal using oxygen isotopes may be an unattainable goal. The COB and FHC records may record very local climate at their respective locations, overprinted by water storage and mixing in the epikarst. Very local-scale reconstructions of past rainfall variability from speleothems can still be useful and important, if interpreted for what they are.
Compilation of Abstracts of Theses Submitted by Candidates for Degrees

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-30

Paral- lel, Multiple Backend Database Systems Feudo, C.V. Modern Hardware Tochnololies 88 MAJ , USA 8nd. Sof ware Techniques for Online uatabase Storage...and itsApplication in the War- gaming , Reseamth and Analysis (W.A.R.) Lab Waltens erger, G.M. On Limited War, Escalation 524 CPT,, USRF Control, and...TECHNIQIUES FOR ONLINE DATABASE ,TORAGE AND ACCESS Christopher V. Feudo Ma or, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy# 1972
Data Analysis Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

projects have either resorted to partitioned smaller databases, or to a hybrid scheme where meta - data are stored in the database, along with pointers to...comes from the briefing of Dr. Mark Duchaineau from LLNL. If we assume that a pixel from a modern airborne sensor covers a square meter, then one can... airborne platform. After surveillance is complete, the data (in fact the disks them- selves) are sent to a ground station for processing. Despite the
A new improved database to support spanish phenological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Martínez-Núñez, Lourdes; Botey-Fullat, Roser; Gallego-Abaroa, Teresa; De Cara-García, Juan Antonio; Rodríguez-Ballesteros, César

2017-04-01

Since the last 30 years, phenology has regained scientific interest as the most reported biological indicator of anthropogenic climate change. AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) has long records in the field of phenological observations, since the 1940s. However, there is a large variety of paper records which are necessary to digitalize. On the other hand, it had been necessary to adapt our methods to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidelines (BBCH code, data documentation- metadata…) and to standardize phenological stages and species in order to provide information to PEP725 (Pan European Phenology Database). Consequently, AEMET is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database to support research and scientific studies about climate, their variability and influence on natural ecosystems, agriculture, etc. This paper presents the steps that are being carried out in order to achieve this goal.
Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurek, Joshua; Cwynar, Les C.; Ager, Thomas A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Edwards, Mary E.

2009-05-01

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (˜39,000-34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ˜4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ˜3.5 °C below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ˜19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ˜17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ˜12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).
Servant leadership, procedural justice climate, service climate, employee attitudes, and organizational citizenship behavior: a cross-level investigation.

PubMed

Walumbwa, Fred O; Hartnell, Chad A; Oke, Adegoke

2010-05-01

This study tests the influence of servant leadership on 2 group climates, employee attitudes, and organizational citizenship behavior. Results from a sample of 815 employees and 123 immediate supervisors revealed that commitment to the supervisor, self-efficacy, procedural justice climate, and service climate partially mediated the relationship between servant leadership and organizational citizenship behavior. Cross-level interaction results revealed that procedural justice climate and positive service climate amplified the influence of commitment to the supervisor on organizational citizenship behavior. Implications of these results for theory and practice and directions for future research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.
Contrasting Modern and 10Be- derived erosion rates for the Southern Betic Cordillera, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.; Kubik, P.

2012-04-01

In Europe, Southeast Spain was identified as one of the regions with major treat of desertification in the context of future land use and climate change. During the last years, significant progress has been made to understand spatial patterns of modern erosion rates in these semi-arid degraded environments. Numerous European projects have contributed to the collection of modern erosion data at different spatial scales for Southeast Spain. However, these data are rarely analysed in the context of long-term changes in vegetation, climate and human occupation. In this paper, we present Modern and Holocene denudation rates for small river basins (1 to 10 km2) located in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. Long-term erosion data were derived from cosmogenic nuclide analyses of river-borne sediment. Modern erosion data were quantified through analysis of sediment deposition volumes behind check dams, and represent average erosion rates over the last 10 to 40 years. Modern erosion rates are surprisingly low (mean erosion rate = 0.048 mm y-1; n=36). They indicate that the steep, sparsely vegetated hillslopes in the Betic Cordillera cannot directly be associated with high erosion rates. 10Be -derived erosion rates integrate over the last 37500 to 3500 years, and are roughly of the same magnitude. They range from 0.013 to 0.243 mm y-1 (mean denudation rate = 0.062 mm y-1 ± 0.054; n=20). Our data suggest that the modern erosion rates are similar to the long-term erosion rates in this area. This result is in contrast with the numerous reports on human-accelerated modern erosion rates for Southeast Spain. Interestingly, our new data on long-term erosion rates show a clear spatial pattern, with higher erosion rates in the Sierra Cabrera and lower erosion rates in Sierra de las Estancias, and Sierra Torrecilla. Preliminary geomorphometric analyses suggest that the spatial variation that we observe in long-term erosion rates is related to the gradient in uplift rates of the Betic Cordillera.
The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

2017-09-01

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.
Fossils tell of mild winters in an ancient hothouse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

Fossil evidence from the Eocene points to a warmer winter climate in the continental interior (e.g. North Dakota) than that predicted by computer models. Paleobotanists have been able to quantify approximate winter mean temperatures by using leaf characteristics. As one example, leaves from colder climates have toothed edges. Leaf structure was correlated with modern climate regimes, and these relations were then applied to Eocene fossils. They found cold-month mean temperatures of 1-8[degrees]C in Wyoming and Montana, well above model predictions. Climate models can be manipulated to reproduce these temperatures, but not without overheating the entire globe. The problem could bemore » that the Eocene atmospheric circulation was different from today, something not accounted for well by climate models.« less
World Ocean Database and the Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program Database: Synthesis of historical and near real-time ocean profile data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, T.; Sun, L.; Locarnini, R. A.; Mishonov, A. V.; Hall, N.; Ouellet, M.

2016-02-01

The World Ocean Database (WOD) contains systematically quality controlled historical and recent ocean profile data (temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrients, carbon cycle variables, biological variables) ranging from Captain Cooks second voyage (1773) to this year's Argo floats. The US National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) also hosts the Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP) Continuously Managed Database (CMD) which provides quality controlled near-real time ocean profile data and higher level quality controlled temperature and salinity profiles from 1990 to present. Both databases are used extensively for ocean and climate studies. Synchronization of these two databases will allow easier access and use of comprehensive regional and global ocean profile data sets for ocean and climate studies. Synchronizing consists of two distinct phases: 1) a retrospective comparison of data in WOD and GTSPP to ensure that the most comprehensive and highest quality data set is available to researchers without the need to individually combine and contrast the two datasets and 2) web services to allow the constantly accruing near-real time data in the GTSPP CMD and the continuous addition and quality control of historical data in WOD to be made available to researchers together, seamlessly.
Communicating Climate Change: Sometimes It's Not about the Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.

2014-12-01

Although there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that humans are driving modern day climate change, a significant portion of Americans are not convinced. This gap in understanding challenges both instructors and students who wish to effectively communicate climate change science. Individuals subconsciously resist factual information that threatens their worldview. Their misperceptions are reinforced by journalistic false balance, coordinated misinformation campaigns, and incorrect or misleading information that is easily accessible via social media. Here the author presents effective refutation strategies that avoid the most common backfire effects while also offering strategies to properly frame the discussion to audiences holding diverse worldviews.
Quantitative estimates of Mid- to late Holocene Climate Variability in northeastern Siberia inferred from chironomids in lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarova, Larisa; Diekmann, Bernhard; Pestrjakova, Ludmila; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Subetto, Dmitry

2010-05-01

Yakutia (Russia, northeastern part of Eurasia) represents one of Earths most extreme climatic settings in the world with deep-reaching frozen ground and a semiarid continental climate with highest seasonal temperature contrasts in the northern hemisphere. The amplitude of temperature variations around the year sometimes exceeds 100oC. There are few examples of quantitative palaeoecological studies in Siberia and these data have to be tested by quantitative studies from other sites in this region, inferred from different proxies and using regional calibration datasets and temperature models that are still lacking. Chironomid midges (Insecta, Diptera, Chironomidae) have been widely used to reconstruct past climate variability in many areas of Western Europe and North America. A chironomid-mean July air temperature inference model has been developed, based on a modern calibration set of 200 lakes sampled along a transect from 110° to 159° E and 61° to73° N in northern Russia. The inference model was applied to sediment cores from 2 lakes in the Central Yakutia in order to reconstruct past July air temperatures. The lacustrine records span mid- to late Holocene. The downcore variability in the chironomid assemblages and the composition of organic matter give evidence of climate-driven and interrelated changes in biological productivity, lacustrine trophic states, and lake-level fluctuations. Three phases of the climate development in Central Yakutia can be derived from the geochemical composition of the lake cores and according to the inferred from chironomid assemblages mean July air ToC. Content of organic matters reached maximal values in the period between 7000-4500 yBP. Sedimentation rate is especially high, numerous molluscs shells are found in sediments. All this along with the reconstructed air temperature confirmed that Mid Holocene optimum in Central Yakutia took place in this period with the maximal temperatures up to 4oC above present day ToC. Strong faunistic changes take place after 4500 yBP. Temperature reconstruction has shown that around 4500 ka BP air temperature went down up to 2oC below modern temperature. These observations confirm end of Holocene climate optimum at this time. The lake status record reveals a long-term trend towards lake-level lowering in the course of climate deterioration after 4.2 cal. ka BP and reduced evaporation as well as progressive sediment infill. This long-term trend is overprinted by short-term fluctuations at centennial time scales with high lake levels and decreased biological productivity during cool climate spells with reduced evaporation, as also observed in modern thermokarst lakes of Central Yakutia.
Younger Dryas equilibrium line altitudes and precipitation patterns in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerschner, Hanns; Moran, Andrew; Ivy-Ochs, Susan

2016-04-01

Moraine systems of the "Egesen Stadial" are widespread and easily identifiable features in the Alps. Absolute dating with terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides shows that the maximum extent was reached during the early Younger Dryas (YD), probably as a reaction to the intense climatic downturn subsequent to Lateglacial Interstadial. In recent years, several new studies and the availability of high-quality laser-scan hillshades and orthophotos allowed a significant extension of the database of YD glaciers as "palaeoprecipitation gauges" to large hitherto unmapped regions in the Austrian and Swiss Alps. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glaciers and its lowering relative to the Little Ice Age ELA (dELA) shows a distinct and systematic spatial pattern. Along the northern slope of the Alps, dELAs are usually large (around 400 m and perhaps even more), while dELAs range around 200 m in the well sheltered areas of the central Alps, e.g. in the Engadine and in western Tyrol. Both stochastic glacier-climate models (e.g. Ohmura et al. 1992) and the heat- and mass balance equation (Kuhn 1981) allow the reconstruction of precipitation change under the assumption of a spatially constant summer temperature depression, which in turn can be estimated from biological proxies. This allows to draw the spatial pattern of precipitation change with considerable detail. Precipitation change is clearly controlled by the local relief like high mountain chains, deeply incised and long valleys and mountain passes. Generally the contrast between the northern fringe of the Alps and the interior was more pronounced than today. Climate in the Northern and and Northwestern Alps was rather wet with precipitation totals eventually exceeding modern annual sums. The central Alps received 20 - 30% less precipitation than today, mainly due to reduced winter precipitation. In the southern Alps, still scarce spatial information points to precipitation sums which were approximately similar to modern values. As winter precipitation was probably much smaller than today, seasonal contrasts were more pronounced. In total, the pattern of YD precipitation change is remarkably similar to precipitation patterns caused by westerly and northwesterly cyclonic airflow during the present-day hydrologic winter (October - March). Kerschner, H., G. Kaser, R. Sailer (2000): Alpine Younger Dryas glaciers as paleo-precipitation gauges. Annals of Glaciology 31, 80-84. Kerschner, H. and S. Ivy-Ochs (2007): Palaeoclimate from glaciers: Examples from the Eastern Alps during the Alpine Lateglacial and early Holocene. Global and Planetary Change 60, 58-71.
The microcomputer scientific software series 9: user's guide to Geo-CLM: geostatistical interpolation of the historical climatic record in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Margaret R. Holdaway

1994-01-01

Describes Geo-CLM, a computer application (for Mac or DOS) whose primary aim is to perform multiple kriging runs to interpolate the historic climatic record at research plots in the Lake States. It is an exploration and analysis tool. Addition capabilities include climatic databases, a flexible test mode, cross validation, lat/long conversion, English/metric units,...
Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2015-01-01

The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979â2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...
A computer network with scada and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gieling, Th. H.; van Meurs, W. Th. M.; Janssen, H. J. J.

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra opportunities to climate control in greenhouses.
A computer network with SCADA and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses.

PubMed

Gieling ThH; van Meurs WTh; Janssen, H J

1996-01-01

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra oppurtunities to climate contol in greenhouses.
CALL in a Climate of Change: Adapting to Turbulent Global Conditions. Short Papers from EUROCALL 2017 (25th, Southampton, United Kingdom, August 23-26, 2017)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borthwick, Kate, Ed.; Bradley, Linda, Ed.; Thouësny, Sylvie, Ed.

2017-01-01

The 25th European Association of Computer-Assisted Language Learning (EUROCALL) conference was hosted by Modern Languages and Linguistics at the University of Southampton, in the United Kingdom, from the 23rd to the 26th of August 2017. The theme of the conference was "CALL in a climate of change." The theme encompassed the notion of how…
The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data shown in the database construction and by the model reinforces the need for high-resolution datasets and stresses the importance of understanding and incorporating climate change scenarios into earth system models.
Leader charisma and affective team climate: the moderating role of the leader's influence and interaction.

PubMed

Hernández Baeza, Ana; Araya Lao, Cristina; García Meneses, Juliana; González Romá, Vicente

2009-11-01

In this study, we evaluate the role of leader charisma in fostering positive affective team climate and preventing negative affective climate. The analysis of a longitudinal database of 137 bank branches by means of hierarchical moderated regression shows that leader charisma has a stronger effect on team optimism than on team tension. In addition, the leader's influence and the frequency of leader-team interaction moderate the relationship between charisma and affective climate. However, whereas the leader's influence enhances the relationship between leader charisma and positive affective climate, the frequency of interaction has counterproductive effects.
Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

2015-04-01

Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).
Patterns of climate variability in the western Equatorial Pacific during the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esswein, K. L.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.; Oppo, D.

2011-12-01

The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) has major implications for climate variability in the tropical Pacific and beyond. The spatial and temporal patterns of SST and salinity affect the complex relationships among the prevailing tropical climate systems primarily, the Australian-Asian Monsoon and El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as inter-ocean surface circulation associated with the Indonesian throughflow (ITF). Reconstructing the variability of the WPWP surface hydrography during the most recent climate anomalies of the Common Era will provide insights into modern climate change in this region. Previous studies suggest SST cooling of ~1 °C during the Little Ice Age (LIA) 1550-1850 CE and close to modern SST during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) 950-1100 CE. Further, these studies suggest enhanced (decreased) precipitation over Indonesia during the LIA (MWP) consistent with reconstructions of migration patterns of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) as recorded in speleothem records in China. The available ocean records are, however, limited to the Makassar Strait. Here we present three new Mg/Ca-SST records from multi- and gravity cores in the northern Makassar, Bali Basin and Flores in the Indonesian Seas. These records allow us to validate previous results from the Makassar Strait and to constrain the geographic extent of past temperature and salinity changes within the WPWP. By using reconstructions of the stable oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of seawater derived from planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O we further assess the complex interactions between the influence of the meridional systems (ITCZ) and the zonal effects of ENSO on the regional hydrology. Chronological control for both records is derived from the presence of ash layers of known historical eruptions. Exceptionally high sedimentation rates of 100 cm per 1000 years further allow a comparison between our new SST records with the instrumental record and provide a decadal scale resolution over the past two millennia. Our results from both the Bali Basin and Flores sea validate previous observations from the Makassar Strait indicating that modern SST in the WPWP are about 1 °C higher than during the LIA but do not exceed SSTs recorded during the MWP. These recent temperature trends in the WPWP are thus unlike the modern 'hockey-stick-like' warming trend observed mostly in Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. Further our results support that the mode of SST change found in the Makassar Straits is indeed representative of the whole WPWP.
Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.
Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2012-01-01

Vegetation inventories (plant taxa present in a vegetation assemblage at a given site) can be used to estimate climatic parameters based on the identification of the range of a given parameter where all taxa in an assemblage overlap ("Mutual Climatic Range"). For the reconstruction of past climates from fossil or subfossil plant assemblages, we assembled the data necessary for such analyses for 530 woody plant taxa and eight climatic parameters in North America. Here we present examples of how these data can be used to obtain paleoclimatic estimates from botanical data in a straightforward, simple, and robust fashion. We also include matrices of climate parameter versus occurrence or nonoccurrence of the individual taxa. These relations are depicted graphically as histograms of the population distributions of the occurrences of a given taxon plotted against a given climatic parameter. This provides a new method for quantification of paleoclimatic parameters from fossil plant assemblages.

National database for calculating fuel available to wildfires

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Nancy H.F. French; Roger D. Ottmar

2012-01-01

Wildfires are increasingly emerging as an important component of Earth system models, particularly those that involve emissions from fires and their effects on climate. Currently, there are few resources available for estimating emissions from wildfires in real time, at subcontinental scales, in a spatially consistent manner. Developing subcontinental-scale databases...
Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans.

PubMed

Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; McCauley, Douglas J

2016-09-16

To better predict the ecological and evolutionary effects of the emerging biodiversity crisis in the modern oceans, we compared the association between extinction threat and ecological traits in modern marine animals to associations observed during past extinction events using a database of 2497 marine vertebrate and mollusc genera. We find that extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa. Pelagic animals were victimized more than benthic animals during previous mass extinctions but are not preferentially threatened in the modern ocean. The differential importance of large-bodied animals to ecosystem function portends greater future ecological disruption than that caused by similar levels of taxonomic loss in past mass extinction events. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Information-computational platform for collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

Analysis of growing volume of related to climate change data from sensors and model outputs requires collaborative multidisciplinary efforts of researchers. To do it timely and in reliable way one needs in modern information-computational infrastructure supporting integrated studies in the field of environmental sciences. Recently developed experimental software and hardware platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) provides required environment for regional climate change related investigations. The platform combines modern web 2.0 approach, GIS-functionality and capabilities to run climate and meteorological models, process large geophysical datasets and support relevant analysis. It also supports joint software development by distributed research groups, and organization of thematic education for students and post-graduate students. In particular, platform software developed includes dedicated modules for numerical processing of regional and global modeling results for consequent analysis and visualization. Also run of integrated into the platform WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, modeling results data preprocessing and visualization is provided. All functions of the platform are accessible by a user through a web-portal using common graphical web-browser in the form of an interactive graphical user interface which provides, particularly, capabilities of selection of geographical region of interest (pan and zoom), data layers manipulation (order, enable/disable, features extraction) and visualization of results. Platform developed provides users with capabilities of heterogeneous geophysical data analysis, including high-resolution data, and discovering of tendencies in climatic and ecosystem changes in the framework of different multidisciplinary researches. Using it even unskilled user without specific knowledge can perform reliable computational processing and visualization of large meteorological, climatic and satellite monitoring datasets through unified graphical web-interface. Partial support of RF Ministry of Education and Science grant 8345, SB RAS Program VIII.80.2 and Projects 69, 131, 140 and APN CBA2012-16NSY project is acknowledged.
Modern nature and climate changes in Siberia: new methods and results of analysis of instrumented observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabanov, Mikhail V.

2002-02-01

Peculiarity of nature and climate changes in middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia is that the temporal variability of meteorological quantities here has a wide range and their spatial variability has a complicated zone structure. Therefore, regional monitoring of modern nature and climate changes in Siberia is of scientific interest from the viewpoint of the global changes observed. Another Siberian peculiarity is associated with the fact that there are many unique objects that have global importance both as natural complexes (boreal forests, water- bog systems, Baikal lake, etc.) And as technogenic objects (oil and gas production, coal mining, metallurgy, transport, etc.). Therefore monitoring and modeling of regional nature and climate changes in Siberia have great practical importance, which is underestimated now, for industrial development of Siberia. Taking into account the above peculiarities and tendencies on investigation of global and regional environmental and climate changes, the multidisciplinary project on Climate and Ecological Monitoring of Siberia (CEMS) was accepted to the research and development program Sibir' since 1993. To realize this project, the Climate and Ecological Observatory was established in Tomsk at the Institute for Optical Monitoring (IOM) SB RAS. At the present time the stations (the basic and background ones) of this observatory are in a progress and theory and instruments for monitoring are being developed as well. In this paper we discuss some results obtained in the framework of CEMS project that were partially published in the monographs, in scientific journals, and will be published in the Proceedings of the 8th Joint International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics and Atmosphere Physics. This review has a purpose not only to discuss the obtained regularities but also to formulate scientific and technical tasks for further investigations into the regional changes of technogenic, natural, and climate systems.
The Post-Glacial Species Velocity of Picea glauca following the Last Glacial Maximum in Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; Kelly, R.; Li, B.; Heath, K.; Hug, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to dramatic fluctuations to Earth's biodiversity that has not been observed since past interglacial periods. There is rising concern that Earth's warming climate will have significant impacts to current species ranges and the ability of a species to persist in a rapidly changing environment. The paleorecord provides information on past species distributions in relation to climate change, which can illuminate the patterns of potential future distributions of species. Particularly in areas where there are multiple potential limiting factors on a species' range, e.g. temperature, radiation, and evaporative demand, the spatial patterns of species migrations may be particularly complex. In this study, we assessed the change in the distributions of white spruce (Picea glauca) from the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) to present-day for the entire state of Alaska. To accomplish this, we created species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated from modern vegetation data and high-resolution, downscaled climate surfaces at 60m. These SDMs were applied to downscaled modern and paleoclimate surfaces to produce estimated ranges of white spruce during the LGM and today. From this, we assessed the "species velocity", the rate at which white spruce would need to migrate to keep pace with climate change, with the goal of determining whether the expansion from the LGM to today originated from microclimate refugia. Higher species velocities indicate locations where climate changed drastically and white spruce would have needed to migrate rapidly to persist and avoid local extinction. Conversely, lower species velocities indicated locations where the local climate was changing less rapidly or was within the center of the range of white spruce, and indicated locations where white spruce distributions were unlikely to have changed significantly. Our results indicate the importance of topographic complexity in buffering the effects of climate change, particularly near the edges of the species' range.
Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model

EPA Science Inventory

As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARK...
Statistical methodologies for tree-ring research to understand the climate-growth relationships over time and space

EPA Science Inventory

The International Tree-Ring Database is a valuable resource for studying climate change and its effects on terrestrial ecosystems over time and space. We examine the statistical methods in current use in dendroclimatology and dendroecology to process the tree-ring data and make ...
Database Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Management of the data within a planetary data system (PDS) is addressed. Principles of modern data management are described and several large NASA scientific data base systems are examined. Data management in PDS is outlined and the major data management issues are introduced.
Adding EUNIS and VAULT rocket data to the VSO with Modern Perl frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansky, Edmund

2017-08-01

A new Perl code is described, that uses the modern Object-oriented Moose framework, to add EUNIS and VAULT rocket data to the Virtual Solar Observatory website. The code permits the easy fixing of FITS header fields in the case where some FITS fields that are required are missing from the original data files. The code makes novel use of the Moose extensions “before” and “after” to build in dependencies so that database creation of tables occurs before the loading of data, and that the validation of file-dependent tables occurs after the loading is completed. Also described is the computation and loading of the deferred FITS field CHECKSUM into the database following the loading and validation of the file-dependent tables. The loading of the EUNIS 2006 and 2007 flight data, and the VAULT 2.0 flight data is described in detail as illustrative examples.
Baleen boom and bust: a synthesis of mysticete phylogeny, diversity and disparity

PubMed Central

Marx, Felix G.; Fordyce, R. Ewan

2015-01-01

A new, fully dated total-evidence phylogeny of baleen whales (Mysticeti) shows that evolutionary phases correlate strongly with Caenozoic modernization of the oceans and climates, implying a major role for bottom-up physical drivers. The phylogeny of 90 modern and dated fossil species suggests three major phases in baleen whale history: an early adaptive radiation (36–30 Ma), a shift towards bulk filter-feeding (30–23 Ma) and a climate-driven diversity loss around 3 Ma. Evolutionary rates and disparity were high following the origin of mysticetes around 38 Ma, coincident with global cooling, abrupt Southern Ocean eutrophication and the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Subsequently, evolutionary rates and disparity fell, becoming nearly constant after approximately 23 Ma as the ACC reached its full strength. By contrast, species diversity rose until 15 Ma and then remained stable, before dropping sharply with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This decline coincided with the final establishment of modern mysticete gigantism and may be linked to glacially driven variability in the distribution of shallow habitats or an increased need for long-distance migration related to iron-mediated changes in glacial marine productivity. PMID:26064636
Latitudinal diversity gradients in Mesozoic non-marine turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, David B.; Holroyd, Patricia A.; Valdes, Paul; Barrett, Paul M.

2016-11-01

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG)-the pattern of increasing taxonomic richness with decreasing latitude-is prevalent in the structure of the modern biota. However, some freshwater taxa show peak richness at mid-latitudes; for example, extant Testudines (turtles, terrapins and tortoises) exhibit their greatest diversity at 25° N, a pattern sometimes attributed to recent bursts of climatically mediated species diversification. Here, we test whether this pattern also characterizes the Mesozoic distribution of turtles, to determine whether it was established during either their initial diversification or as a more modern phenomenon. Using global occurrence data for non-marine testudinate genera, we find that subsampled richness peaks at palaeolatitudes of 15-30° N in the Jurassic, 30-45° N through the Cretaceous to the Campanian, and from 30° to 60° N in the Maastrichtian. The absence of a significant diversity peak in southern latitudes is consistent with results from climatic models and turtle niche modelling that demonstrate a dearth of suitable turtle habitat in Gondwana during the Jurassic and Late Cretaceous. Our analyses confirm that the modern testudinate LBG has a deep-time origin and further demonstrate that LBGs are not always expressed as a smooth, equator-to-pole distribution.
Baleen boom and bust: a synthesis of mysticete phylogeny, diversity and disparity.

PubMed

Marx, Felix G; Fordyce, R Ewan

2015-04-01

A new, fully dated total-evidence phylogeny of baleen whales (Mysticeti) shows that evolutionary phases correlate strongly with Caenozoic modernization of the oceans and climates, implying a major role for bottom-up physical drivers. The phylogeny of 90 modern and dated fossil species suggests three major phases in baleen whale history: an early adaptive radiation (36-30 Ma), a shift towards bulk filter-feeding (30-23 Ma) and a climate-driven diversity loss around 3 Ma. Evolutionary rates and disparity were high following the origin of mysticetes around 38 Ma, coincident with global cooling, abrupt Southern Ocean eutrophication and the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Subsequently, evolutionary rates and disparity fell, becoming nearly constant after approximately 23 Ma as the ACC reached its full strength. By contrast, species diversity rose until 15 Ma and then remained stable, before dropping sharply with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This decline coincided with the final establishment of modern mysticete gigantism and may be linked to glacially driven variability in the distribution of shallow habitats or an increased need for long-distance migration related to iron-mediated changes in glacial marine productivity.
[The complex plague--reconsiderations of an epidemic from the past].

PubMed

Moseng, Ole Georg

2007-12-13

Speculations have arisen about the black plague in recent years - was it a disease caused by YERSINIA PESTIS: or something else? Extensive outbreaks in India in the 1890s have formed the basis for descriptions of the plague, both for those who believe that the medieval plagues and modern plague were different diseases and for those who claim that the plague has been one and the same disease throughout history. The plague was more or less defined as a disease in the 1890s, and the understanding of its clinical course and dissemination at the time has uncritically been understood as the general model for spreading of the plague. But plague is a many-faceted disease. It has spread to five continents in modern times, through an array of ecosystems and under widely different climatic conditions. It can also be passed on to man, and from one individual to another, in different ways. The biological conditions that prevailed in India have not been relevant for medieval Norway. The preconditions for spreading of plague epidemics of the past in a Nordic climate must therefore have been different. It can only be expected that contemporary descriptions of historic epidemics are different from those in modern times.
Paleoclimatic and paleoecological reconstruction of early Miocene terrestrial equatorial deposits, Rusinga and Mfangano Islands, Lake Victoria, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, L. A.; Peppe, D. J.; McNulty, K. P.; Driese, S. G.; Lutz, J.; Nightingale, S.; Maxbauer, D. P.; Horner, W. H.; DiPietro, L. M.; Lehmann, T.; Dunsworth, H. M.; Harcourt-Smith, W. E.; Ogondo, J.

2012-12-01

Biological responses to climatic shifts are often studied to inform us on future anthropogenic-driven climate change. However, few of these climatic shifts occur over time scales appropriate to modern change and few occur with biota similar to modern. The Miocene Climatic Optimum is an ideal interval to study because of its rapid duration and because it occurred during the rise and proliferation of apes. The sediments on Rusinga and Mfangano Islands, Lake Victoria, Kenya were deposited between 18 and 20 Ma and record a changing equatorial climate just prior to the Miocene Climate Optimum. This location also offers an opportunity to use multiple proxies to constrain climate and landscape, including paleosol geochemistry, paleobotany and paleontology. Additionally, due to the rich fossil preservation on the islands, climatic shifts are framed within the context of early caterrhine evolution. Here, we report a climate shift recorded through three time slices spanning two formations over ~2 myr. The oldest unit, the Wayando Formation, records an arid, probably open ecosystem with pedogenic calcite rhizoliths, a high groundwater table, poorly-formed paleosols and permineralized sedges. The middle time slice, the Grit Member-Fossil Bed Member contact of the Hiwegi Formation, shows evidence of a local saline lake, with desiccation features, satin-spar after gypsum deposits and salt hoppers. Paleobotanical and sedimentological data from roughly contemporaneous strata indicate a warm, highly seasonal environment that supported a mixture of woodland and forested elements across the landscape. The youngest unit, which is within the Kibanga Member of the Hiwegi Formation, displays demonstrable evidence for a closed-canopy multistoried forest with the presence of tree-stump casts and permineralized root systems within a red-brown paleosol. Within the same paleosol horizon, the dental remains of the catarrhines Proconsul and Dendropithecus have been discovered in situ. This stratum is overlain by a sandstone with preserved leaves. Bulk soil geochemistry and paleobotanical proxies suggest the climate was warm (MAT estimates range = 22.6 - 34.5 °C) and relatively wet (MAP estimates range = 700 - 2,620 mm). This study suggests that tropical Africa may have had a much more dynamic climate leading up to the Miocene Climatic Optimum than previously suggested, and underwent considerable ecosystem reorganization both before and after the Miocene Climatic Optimum.
A Tony Thomas-Inspired Guide to INSPIRE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Connell, Heath B.; /Fermilab

2010-04-01

The SPIRES database was created in the late 1960s to catalogue the high energy physics preprints received by the SLAC Library. In the early 1990s it became the first database on the web and the first website outside of Europe. Although indispensible to the HEP community, its aging software infrastructure is becoming a serious liability. In a joint project involving CERN, DESY, Fermilab and SLAC, a new database, INSPIRE, is being created to replace SPIRES using CERN's modern, open-source Invenio database software. INSPIRE will maintain the content and functionality of SPIRES plus many new features. I describe this evolution frommore » the birth of SPIRES to the current day, noting that the career of Tony Thomas spans this timeline.« less
Constraining Lipid Biomarker Paleoclimate Proxies in a Small Arctic Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dion-Kirschner, H.; McFarlin, J. M.; Axford, Y.; Osburn, M. R.

2017-12-01

Arctic amplification of climate change renders high-latitude environments unusually sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (Serreze and Barry, 2011). Lipid biomarkers, and their hydrogen and carbon isotopic compositions, can yield valuable paleoclimatic and paleoecological information. However, many variables affect the production and preservation of lipids and their constituent isotopes, including precipitation, plant growth conditions, biosynthesis mechanisms, and sediment depositional processes (Sachse et al., 2012). These variables are particularly poorly constrained for high-latitude environments, where trees are sparse or not present, and plants grow under continuous summer light and cool temperatures during a short growing season. Here we present a source-to-sink study of a single watershed from the Kangerlussuaq region of southwest Greenland. Our analytes from in and around `Little Sugarloaf Lake' (LSL) include terrestrial and aquatic plants, plankton, modern lake water, surface sediments, and a sediment core. This diverse sample set allows us to fulfill three goals: 1) We evaluate the production of lipids and isotopic signatures in the modern watershed in comparison to modern climate. Our data exhibit genus-level trends in leaf wax production and isotopic composition, and help clarify the difference between terrestrial and aquatic signals. 2) We evaluate the surface sediment of LSL to determine how lipid biomarkers from the watershed are incorporated into sediments. We constrain the relative contributions of terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, and other aquatic organisms to the sediment in this watershed. 3) We apply this modern source-to-sink calibration to the analysis of a 65 cm sediment core record. Our core is organic-rich, and relatively high deposition rates allow us to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes with high resolution. Our work will help determine the veracity of these common paleoclimate proxies, specifically for research in southwest Greenland, and will enable an accurate, high-resolution watershed-level reconstruction of Holocene conditions. Serreze, M. and Barry, R. (2011). Global and Planetary Change, 77, 85-96. Sachse, D., et al. (2012). Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 40, 221-249.
Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Experimental Hygrothermal Performance: Cloquet Residential Research Facility Laboratory Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, Louise F.; Harmon, Anna C.

2015-04-01

Thermal and moisture problems in existing basements create a unique challenge because the exterior face of the wall is not easily or inexpensively accessible. This approach addresses thermal and moisture management from the interior face of the wall without disturbing the exterior soil and landscaping. the interior and exterior environments. This approach has the potential for improving durability, comfort, and indoor air quality. This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes.more » NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.« less
Climate Change and Vietnam

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

suggests, such action may come at a cost against competing priorities like modernization and economic development. In that context, it bears inquiring...program including India, 29 Rajaram Panda , “Vietnam and the World: Focus on the U.S. and India
Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change

PubMed Central

O’Dea, Sarah A.; Gibbs, Samantha J.; Bown, Paul R.; Young, Jeremy R.; Poulton, Alex J.; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change. PMID:25399967
Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.

PubMed

O'Dea, Sarah A; Gibbs, Samantha J; Bown, Paul R; Young, Jeremy R; Poulton, Alex J; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A

2014-11-17

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change.

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.
Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol.

PubMed

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-12-23

For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol

PubMed Central

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Introduction For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. Methods and analysis A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. PMID:28011805
Classification of Ancient Mammal Individuals Using Dental Pulp MALDI-TOF MS Peptide Profiling

PubMed Central

Tran, Thi-Nguyen-Ny; Aboudharam, Gérard; Gardeisen, Armelle; Davoust, Bernard; Bocquet-Appel, Jean-Pierre; Flaudrops, Christophe; Belghazi, Maya; Raoult, Didier; Drancourt, Michel

2011-01-01

Background The classification of ancient animal corpses at the species level remains a challenging task for forensic scientists and anthropologists. Severe damage and mixed, tiny pieces originating from several skeletons may render morphological classification virtually impossible. Standard approaches are based on sequencing mitochondrial and nuclear targets. Methodology/Principal Findings We present a method that can accurately classify mammalian species using dental pulp and mass spectrometry peptide profiling. Our work was organized into three successive steps. First, after extracting proteins from the dental pulp collected from 37 modern individuals representing 13 mammalian species, trypsin-digested peptides were used for matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry analysis. The resulting peptide profiles accurately classified every individual at the species level in agreement with parallel cytochrome b gene sequencing gold standard. Second, using a 279–modern spectrum database, we blindly classified 33 of 37 teeth collected in 37 modern individuals (89.1%). Third, we classified 10 of 18 teeth (56%) collected in 15 ancient individuals representing five mammal species including human, from five burial sites dating back 8,500 years. Further comparison with an upgraded database comprising ancient specimen profiles yielded 100% classification in ancient teeth. Peptide sequencing yield 4 and 16 different non-keratin proteins including collagen (alpha-1 type I and alpha-2 type I) in human ancient and modern dental pulp, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Mass spectrometry peptide profiling of the dental pulp is a new approach that can be added to the arsenal of species classification tools for forensics and anthropology as a complementary method to DNA sequencing. The dental pulp is a new source for collagen and other proteins for the species classification of modern and ancient mammal individuals. PMID:21364886
Contraception supply chain challenges: a review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Mukasa, Bakali; Ali, Moazzam; Farron, Madeline; Van de Weerdt, Renee

2017-10-01

To identify and assess factors determining the functioning of supply chain systems for modern contraception in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and to identify challenges contributing to contraception stockouts that may lead to unmet need. Scientific databases and grey literature were searched including Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE), PubMed, MEDLINE, POPLINE, CINAHL, Academic Search Complete, Science Direct, Web of Science, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar, WHO databases and websites of key international organisations. Studies indicated that supply chain system inefficiencies significantly affect availability of modern FP and contraception commodities in LMICs, especially in rural public facilities where distribution barriers may be acute. Supply chain failures or bottlenecks may be attributed to: weak and poorly institutionalized logistic management information systems (LMIS), poor physical infrastructures in LMICs, lack of trained and dedicated staff for supply chain management, inadequate funding, and rigid government policies on task sharing. However, there is evidence that implementing effective LMISs and involving public and private providers will distribution channels resulted in reduction in medical commodities' stockout rates. Supply chain bottlenecks contribute significantly to persistent high stockout rates for modern contraceptives in LMICs. Interventions aimed at enhancing uptake of contraceptives to reduce the problem of unmet need in LMICs should make strong commitments towards strengthening these countries' health commodities supply chain management systems. Current evidence is limited and additional, and well-designed implementation research on contraception supply chain systems is warranted to gain further understanding and insights on the determinants of supply chain bottlenecks and their impact on stockouts of contraception commodities.
A precipitation database of station-based daily and monthly measurements for West Africa: Overview, quality control and harmonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliefernicht, Jan; Waongo, Moussa; Annor, Thompson; Laux, Patrick; Lorenz, Manuel; Salack, Seyni; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

West Africa is a data sparse region. High quality and long-term precipitation data are often not readily available for applications in hydrology, agriculture, meteorology and other needs. To close this gap, we use multiple data sources to develop a precipitation database with long-term daily and monthly time series. This database was compiled from 16 archives including global databases e.g. from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), databases from research projects (e.g. the AMMA database) and databases of the national meteorological services of some West African countries. The collection consists of more than 2000 precipitation gauges with measurements dating from 1850 to 2015. Due to erroneous measurements (e.g. temporal offsets, unit conversion errors), missing values and inconsistent meta-data, the merging of this precipitation dataset is not straightforward and requires a thorough quality control and harmonization. To this end, we developed geostatistical-based algorithms for quality control of individual databases and harmonization to a joint database. The algorithms are based on a pairwise comparison of the correspondence of precipitation time series in dependence to the distance between stations. They were tested for precipitation time series from gages located in a rectangular domain covering Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin and Togo. This harmonized and quality controlled precipitation database was recently used for several applications such as the validation of a high resolution regional climate model and the bias correction of precipitation projections provided the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). In this presentation, we will give an overview of the novel daily and monthly precipitation database and the algorithms used for quality control and harmonization. We will also highlight the quality of global and regional archives (e.g. GHCN, GSOD, AMMA database) in comparison to the precipitation databases provided by the national meteorological services.
Surface Observation Climatic Summaries for Nellis AFB, Nevada

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-05-01

DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOMWI! TO THE PUBLIC AT LARGE, OR BY THE DEFENSE TECHNICAL IMKNMTI1M CENTER (DTIC) TO THE NATIOAL T•ECICRL INFO TION SERVICE (NTS). JOSEPH...DOCUMENTS FORMERLY KNOW AS THE REVISED UNIFON4 StlMMRRY OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (RUSSW) AND THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLIMATIC SWSU.R (LISOCS...RECORD (POR). -SUMMARY OF DAY- (SOD) INFOEATIOR IS SUMMARIZED )FRO ALL AVAILABLE DATA IN THE OL-A, USARETJC CLIMATIC DATABASE. 14. SUBJECT TOM
Fine-Root Ecology Database (FRED): A Global Collection of Root Trait Data with Coincident Site, Vegetation, Edaphic, and Climatic Data, Version 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iversen, C. M.; Powell, A. S.; McCormack, M. L.

To address the need for a centralized root trait database, we are compiling the Fine-Root Ecology Database (FRED) from published literature and unpublished data. FRED Version 1 (FRED 1.0) currently houses more than 70,000 observations of root traits and their associated site, vegetation, edaphic, and climatic conditions from across the globe (see image below, which shows the more than 1000 distinct locations associated with observations in FRED 1.0). Data collection is ongoing and will continue for the foreseeable future. The more than 300 root traits currently housed in FRED 1.0 are described in detail here. FRED is focused on finemore » roots (less than 2 mm), as coarse roots are studied using different methodology, often at very different scales, and have different traits and trait interpretations.« less
How the Invisible Hand is Supposed to Adjust the Natural Thermostat: A Guide for the Perplexed.

PubMed

Storm, Servaas

2017-10-01

Mainstream climate economics takes global warming seriously, but perplexingly concludes that the optimal economic policy is to almost do nothing about it. This conclusion can be traced to just a few "normative" assumptions, over which there exists fundamental disagreement amongst economists. This paper explores two axes of this disagreement. The first axis ("market vs. regulation") measures faith in the invisible hand to adjust the natural thermostat. The second axis expresses differences in views on the efficiency and equity implications of climate action. The two axes combined lead to a classification of conflicting approaches in climate economics. The variety of approaches does not imply a post-modern "anything goes", as the contradictions between climate and capitalism cannot be wished away.
Report of the panel on the land surface: Process of change, section 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, John B.; Barron, Eric E.; Bloom, Arthur A.; Breed, Carol; Dohrenwend, J.; Evans, Diane L.; Farr, Thomas T.; Gillespie, Allan R.; Isaks, B. L.; Williams, Richard S.

1991-01-01

The panel defined three main areas of study that are central to the Solid Earth Science (SES) program: climate interactions with the Earth's surface, tectonism as it affects the Earth's surface and climate, and human activities that modify the Earth's surface. Four foci of research are envisioned: process studies with an emphasis on modern processes in transitional areas; integrated studies with an emphasis on long term continental climate change; climate-tectonic interactions; and studies of human activities that modify the Earth's surface, with an emphasis on soil degradation. The panel concluded that there is a clear requirement for global coverage by high resolution stereoscopic images and a pressing need for global topographic data in support of studies of the land surface.
Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change.

PubMed

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L; Farquhar, Graham D

2018-03-06

There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P ) database (1940-2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L.; Farquhar, Graham D.

2018-03-01

There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P) database (1940–2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change.
Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

PubMed Central

Curtis, Caroline A.; Bradley, Bethany A.

2016-01-01

Background Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance. Methods We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size. Results Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation. Conclusion Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species’ fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche. PMID:27870859
Global Drainage Patterns to Modern Terrestrial Sedimentary Basins and its Influence on Large River Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyberg, B.; Helland-Hansen, W.

2017-12-01

Long-term preservation of alluvial sediments is dependent on the hydrological processes that deposit sediments solely within an area that has available accomodation space and net subsidence know as a sedimentary basin. An understanding of the river processes contributing to terrestrial sedimentary basins is essential to fundamentally constrain and quantify controls on the modern terrestrial sink. Furthermore, the terrestrial source to sink controls place constraints on the entire coastal, shelf and deep marine sediment routing systems. In addition, the geographical importance of modern terrestrial sedimentary basins for agriculture and human settlements has resulted in significant upstream anthropogenic catchment modification for irrigation and energy needs. Yet to our knowledge, a global catchment model depicting the drainage patterns to modern terrestrial sedimentary basins has previously not been established that may be used to address these challenging issues. Here we present a new database of 180,737 global catchments that show the surface drainage patterns to modern terrestrial sedimentary basins. This is achieved by using high resolution river networks derived from digital elevation models in relation to newly acquired maps on global modern sedimentary basins to identify terrestrial sinks. The results show that active tectonic regimes are typically characterized by larger terrestrial sedimentary basins, numerous smaller source catchments and a high source to sink relief ratio. To the contrary passive margins drain catchments to smaller terrestrial sedimentary basins, are composed of fewer source catchments that are relatively larger and a lower source to sink relief ratio. The different geomorphological characteristics of source catchments by tectonic setting influence the spatial and temporal patterns of fluvial architecture within sedimentary basins and the anthropogenic methods of exploiting those rivers. The new digital database resource is aimed to help the geoscientific community to contribute further to our quantitative understanding of source-to-sink systems and its allogenic and autogenic controls, geomorphological characteristics, terrestrial sediment transit times and the anthropogenic impact on those systems.
Archeological Survey and Testing Along Boone Creek, Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant, Webster Parish, Louisiana

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

ducks, partridges, cranes , quail, snakes, and fish. 8 CHAPTER 2: ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Climate The modern climate of the project area is classified as... caustic materials. Large openings in their sides were cut by oil field workers, who then added water to the dry caustic material to make a caustic ...whiffletree hook and a harness ring were recovered, indicating that horses were used here. No automotive artifacts were recovered. This again reinforces the
Paleoclimate of the Earth and solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dergachev, V. A.

2017-09-01

The paper focuses on climate variations caused by the orbital effect and solar activity over the last one million years and oscillations (warming or cooling) of the climate since the last ice age retreat. Attention is paid to a significant discrepancy in the trend of global temperature change during the modern interglacial epoch (Holocene) obtained by various methods. A long-term cooling trend was observed in the summer temperature of the Northern Hemisphere during the last 2000 years.
A 120 ka record of reconstructed paleoprecipitation signals at Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia derived from compound-specific δD analysis of terrestrial biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkie, K. M.; Chapligin, B.; Burns, S. J.; Petsch, S.; Meyer, H.; Brigham-Grette, J.

2011-12-01

Sediment cores recovered from Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia extend back to 3.6Ma, representing the longest time-continuous sediment record of past climate change in the terrestrial Arctic. Comparison of the stable isotope composition of modern precipitation and compound-specific isotopic analyses of modern vegetation and sedimentary lipids from the last 120ka allows reconstruction of past hydrological conditions, thereby providing a powerful tool for reconstructing past Arctic climate changes. The stable isotopic composition of modern precipitation, streams, and lake water are presented and used to constrain isotope systematics of the Lake El'gygytgyn Basin hydrology. The hydrogen isotopic compositions (δD) of alkanoic acids from modern vegetation are compared with modern precipitation and lake core top sediments. Multi-species net fractionation values between source water and leaf wax lipid δD values (-113 ± 13%) agree with previous results in arid environments and provide a basis for applying this proxy further downcore. δD measurements of sedimentary alkanoic acids representing terrestrial sources (e.g. δDTER: nC30) show significant variation (up to 70%) over the past 120 ka. Interglacial periods are characterized by isotopic enrichment while the most negative δDTER values occur during glacial conditions (i.e. the Last Glacial Maximum and MIS 4). Preliminary reconstruction of the isotopic composition of past precipitation from the δDTER record correlates strongly with the δ18Ocalcite record from Sanbao and Hulu caves1 (China) and the δDvostok record2 (Antarctica) suggesting global teleconnections and 'circum-Pacific' coherence to paleo-precipitation archives. 1 Wang et al. (2005), Science 308, 854-857. 2 Petit et al. (1999), Nature 399, 429-436.
Emergence of long distance bird migrations: a new model integrating global climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louchart, Antoine

2008-12-01

During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.
Temperature Range Shifts for Three European Tree Species over the Last 10,000 Years

PubMed Central

Cheddadi, Rachid; Araújo, Miguel B.; Maiorano, Luigi; Edwards, Mary; Guisan, Antoine; Carré, Matthieu; Chevalier, Manuel; Pearman, Peter B.

2016-01-01

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges. PMID:27826308
SIMMAX: A modern analog technique to deduce Atlantic sea surface temperatures from planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pflaumann, Uwe; Duprat, Josette; Pujol, Claude; Labeyrie, Laurent D.

1996-02-01

We present a data set of 738 planktonic foraminiferal species counts from sediment surface samples of the eastern North Atlantic and the South Atlantic between 87°N and 40°S, 35°E and 60°W including published Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) data. These species counts are linked to Levitus's [1982] modern water temperature data for the four caloric seasons, four depth ranges (0, 30, 50, and 75 m), and the combined means of those depth ranges. The relation between planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and sea surface temperature (SST) data is estimated using the newly developed SIMMAX technique, which is an acronym for a modern analog technique (MAT) with a similarity index, based on (1) the scalar product of the normalized faunal percentages and (2) a weighting procedure of the modern analog's SSTs according to the inverse geographical distances of the most similar samples. Compared to the classical CLIMAP transfer technique and conventional MAT techniques, SIMMAX provides a more confident reconstruction of paleo-SSTs (correlation coefficient is 0.994 for the caloric winter and 0.993 for caloric summer). The standard deviation of the residuals is 0.90°C for caloric winter and 0.96°C for caloric summer at 0-m water depth. The SST estimates reach optimum stability (standard deviation of the residuals is 0.88°C) at the average 0- to 75-m water depth. Our extensive database provides SST estimates over a range of -1.4 to 27.2°C for caloric winter and 0.4 to 28.6°C for caloric summer, allowing SST estimates which are especially valuable for the high-latitude Atlantic during glacial times. An electronic supplement of this material may be obtained on adiskette or Anonymous FTP from KOSMOS.AGU.ORG. (LOGIN toAGU's FTP account using ANONYMOUS as the username and GUESTas the password. Go to the right directory by typing CD APPEND. TypeLS to see what files are available. Type GET and the name of the file toget it. Finally type EXIT to leave the system.) (Paper 95PA01743,SIMMAX: A modern analog technique to deduce Atlantic sea surfacetemperatures from planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments, UwePflaumann, Josette Duprat, Claude Pujol, and Laurent D. Labeyrie).Diskette may be ordered from American Geophysical Union, 2000Florida Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20009; Payment mustaccompany order.

Climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age based on ostracod faunas and shell geochemistry from Biscayne Bay, Florida: Chapter 14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Wingard, G. Lynn; Dwyer, Gary S.; Swart, Peter K.; Willard, Debra A.; Albietz, Jessica

2012-01-01

An 800-year-long environmental history of Biscayne Bay, Florida, is reconstructed from ostracod faunal and shell geochemical (oxygen, carbon isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios) studies of sediment cores from three mudbanks in the central and southern parts of the bay. Using calibrations derived from analyses of modern Biscayne and Florida Bay ostracods, palaeosalinity oscillations associated with changes in precipitation were identified. These oscillations reflect multidecadal- and centennial-scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Evidence suggests wetter regional climate during the MCA and drier conditions during the LIA. In addition, twentieth century anthropogenic modifications to Everglades hydrology influenced bay circulation and/or processes controlling carbon isotopic composition.
The JANA calibrations and conditions database API

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, David

2010-04-01

Calibrations and conditions databases can be accessed from within the JANA Event Processing framework through the API defined in its JCalibration base class. The API is designed to support everything from databases, to web services to flat files for the backend. A Web Service backend using the gSOAP toolkit has been implemented which is particularly interesting since it addresses many modern cybersecurity issues including support for SSL. The API allows constants to be retrieved through a single line of C++ code with most of the context, including the transport mechanism, being implied by the run currently being analyzed and the environment relieving developers from implementing such details.
Landscape Evolution, A Comparison of Form and Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bursik, Marcus I.

2000-01-01

This project's goals were to collect, analyze and interpret 3-dimensional physiographic data for understanding the processes responsible for landscape modification. The primary landforms to be studied were Neogene cinder cones in Arizona (San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF), Coconino and Kaibab National Forests, Arizona). We also obtained and are still analyzing digital topographic data for the Long Valley-White Mountains area of California, which display Quaternary normal fault scarps, as well as extensive evidence of degradation. The work resulted in a large database of measured rates of downslope transport of slope debris. It was hypothesized that the work would increase our understanding of process-response models of hillslope degradation, and of the effects of climate change and other parameters on degradation rates. In greater detail, our primary goal was to compare evolutionary sequences of hillslopes, as exemplified by the topography of landforms of the same type but of different ages, with measurements of the surficial processes active on the landforms. Assuming that other parameters, such as hillslope materials and vegetation are held constant, and that the effects of changing climate are negligible, then the sediment transport rates measured today on the landforms should be the same as those calculated from the inversion of landform topography by use of a diffusion-type model. However, if the effects of changing climate or other factors are not negligible, then the observed transport rates would differ from those which must be invoked to explain the current topography. We hypothesized in fact that because degradation on the event scale is highly transient and localized, we would find a wide divergence between modern, measured transport rates, and rates calculated by global landform inversion or modeling. Because of the length of time involved in collection of sufficient data on current degradation rates, we are still continuing to analyse and interpret the data. Completion of the work will increase our understanding of the potential effects of anthropogenic climate and surficial change on the Earth's solid surface, and possibly allow us to constrain paths of hill-slope evolution following anthropogenic modifications, as well as compare the short-term with the long-term rates of hillslope degradation.
Modeling ecohydrologic processes at Hubbard Brook: Initial results for Watershed 6 stream discharge and chemistry

EPA Science Inventory

The Hubbard Brook Long Term Ecological Research site has produced some of the most extensive and long-running databases on the hydrology, biology and chemistry of forest ecosystem responses to climate and forest harvest. We used these long-term databases to calibrate and apply G...
Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.
A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era.

PubMed

2017-07-11

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

PubMed Central

Emile-Geay, Julien; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A.N.; Björklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, Massimo; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Koç, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi A.; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, Xuemei; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Kuwar Thapa, Udya; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, Andre E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene R.; White, James W.C.; Yu, Zicheng; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. PMID:28696409
Is average chain length of plant lipids a potential proxy for vegetation, environment and climate changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Zhang, W.; Hou, J.

2015-04-01

Average chain length (ACL) of leaf wax components preserved in lacustrine sediments and soil profiles has been widely adopted as a proxy indicator for past changes in vegetation, environment and climate during the late Quaternary. The fundamental assumption is that woody plants produce leaf waxes with shorter ACL values than non-woody plants. However, there is a lack of systematic survey of modern plants to justify the assumption. Here, we investigated various types of plants at two lakes, Blood Pond in the northeastern USA and Lake Ranwu on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and found that the ACL values were not significantly different between woody and non-woody plants. We also compiled the ACL values of modern plants in the literatures and performed a meta-analysis to determine whether a significant difference exists between woody and non-woody plants at single sites. The results showed that the ACL values of plants at 19 out of 26 sites did not show a significant difference between the two major types of plants. This suggests that extreme caution should be taken in using ACL as proxy for past changes in vegetation, environment and climate.
Millennial-scale sustainability of the Chesapeake Bay Native American oyster fishery

PubMed Central

Rick, Torben C.; Reeder-Myers, Leslie A.; Hofman, Courtney A.; Breitburg, Denise; Lockwood, Rowan; Henkes, Gregory; Kellogg, Lisa; Lowery, Darrin; Luckenbach, Mark W.; Mann, Roger; Ogburn, Matthew B.; Southworth, Melissa; Wah, John; Wesson, James; Hines, Anson H.

2016-01-01

Estuaries around the world are in a state of decline following decades or more of overfishing, pollution, and climate change. Oysters (Ostreidae), ecosystem engineers in many estuaries, influence water quality, construct habitat, and provide food for humans and wildlife. In North America’s Chesapeake Bay, once-thriving eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations have declined dramatically, making their restoration and conservation extremely challenging. Here we present data on oyster size and human harvest from Chesapeake Bay archaeological sites spanning ∼3,500 y of Native American, colonial, and historical occupation. We compare oysters from archaeological sites with Pleistocene oyster reefs that existed before human harvest, modern oyster reefs, and other records of human oyster harvest from around the world. Native American fisheries were focused on nearshore oysters and were likely harvested at a rate that was sustainable over centuries to millennia, despite changing Holocene climatic conditions and sea-level rise. These data document resilience in oyster populations under long-term Native American harvest, sea-level rise, and climate change; provide context for managing modern oyster fisheries in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere around the world; and demonstrate an interdisciplinary approach that can be applied broadly to other fisheries. PMID:27217572
Coupling Modern Portfolio Theory and Marxan enhances the efficiency of Lesser White-fronted Goose's (Anser erythropus) habitat conservation.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Gao, Xiang; Zeng, Guangming; Hua, Shanshan; Zhong, Minzhou; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Xin

2018-01-09

Climate change and human activities cause uncertain changes to species biodiversity by altering their habitat. The uncertainty of climate change requires planners to balance the benefit and cost of making conservation plan. Here optimal protection approach for Lesser White-fronted Goose (LWfG) by coupling Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and Marxan selection were proposed. MPT was used to provide suggested weights of investment for protected area (PA) and reduce the influence of climatic uncertainty, while Marxan was utilized to choose a series of specific locations for PA. We argued that through combining these two commonly used techniques with the conservation plan, including assets allocation and PA chosing, the efficiency of rare bird's protection would be enhanced. In MPT analyses, the uncertainty of conservation-outcome can be reduced while conservation effort was allocated in Hunan, Jiangxi and Yangtze River delta. In Marxan model, the optimal location for habitat restorations based on existing nature reserve was identified. Clear priorities for the location and allocation of assets could be provided based on this research, and it could help decision makers to build conservation strategy for LWfG.
Millennial-scale sustainability of the Chesapeake Bay Native American oyster fishery.

PubMed

Rick, Torben C; Reeder-Myers, Leslie A; Hofman, Courtney A; Breitburg, Denise; Lockwood, Rowan; Henkes, Gregory; Kellogg, Lisa; Lowery, Darrin; Luckenbach, Mark W; Mann, Roger; Ogburn, Matthew B; Southworth, Melissa; Wah, John; Wesson, James; Hines, Anson H

2016-06-07

Estuaries around the world are in a state of decline following decades or more of overfishing, pollution, and climate change. Oysters (Ostreidae), ecosystem engineers in many estuaries, influence water quality, construct habitat, and provide food for humans and wildlife. In North America's Chesapeake Bay, once-thriving eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations have declined dramatically, making their restoration and conservation extremely challenging. Here we present data on oyster size and human harvest from Chesapeake Bay archaeological sites spanning ∼3,500 y of Native American, colonial, and historical occupation. We compare oysters from archaeological sites with Pleistocene oyster reefs that existed before human harvest, modern oyster reefs, and other records of human oyster harvest from around the world. Native American fisheries were focused on nearshore oysters and were likely harvested at a rate that was sustainable over centuries to millennia, despite changing Holocene climatic conditions and sea-level rise. These data document resilience in oyster populations under long-term Native American harvest, sea-level rise, and climate change; provide context for managing modern oyster fisheries in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere around the world; and demonstrate an interdisciplinary approach that can be applied broadly to other fisheries.
Select, High-Resolution Windows Into Sub-Centennial-Scale Climate Variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool Between 7 and 12 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Burr, G.; Chen, Y.

2004-12-01

Post-glacial, coral-based climate records from the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), a region that serves as a major heat and moisture source to the ocean-atmosphere system, provide sub-annually resolved windows into climate variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales from this climatologically significant region. Paleoclimate reconstructions based on fossil corals require that the skeletal geochemistry be unaffected by diagenesis and that secular changes in seawater chemistry be known. Global seawater \\delta18O variations can be constrained using knowledge of past variations in ice volume, whereas much less is known about global seawater Sr/Ca variations, if they occur in the post-glacial interval. Our paleoclimate reconstructions are based on monthly resolved \\delta18O and Sr/Ca records in fossil Porites corals from the Western Solomon Islands ( ˜8° S, ˜157° E; Tetepare and Rendova). Post-depositional alteration of our fossil coral samples is minimal based on mineralogic (XRD), petrographic (SEM) and geochemical criteria (preservation of modern marine initial \\delta234U values). Four of these fossil coral time series are of particular interest: 99RND (age, 7,992±42; ~45 years), 01T-B (age, 7,647±73; ~65 years), 01T-AQ (age, 10,208±44; ~30 years), and 99TET-B (age, 11,987±69; ~ 30 years). We apply a model that uses simultaneous variations in coral \\delta18O and Sr/Ca in combination with estimates of post-glacial changes in seawater chemistry to reconstruct mean climate state during the early Holocene and the Younger Dryas. Model results indicate that on average SSTs in the WPWP were within 1° C of modern and that surface waters were more saline than modern during each of the four time intervals during which our fossil corals grew.
Pleistocene reduction of polar ice caps: Evidence from Cariaco Basin marine sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise between 13 and 94 cm over the next 100 yr due to continued climate warming. The sea-level projections assume that polar ice sheets will remain stable or even increase on time scales of centuries, but controversial geologic evidence suggests that current polar ice sheets have been eliminated or greatly reduced during previous Pleistocene interglacials indicating that modern polar ice sheets have become unstable within the natural range of interglacial climates. Sea level may have been more than 20 m higher than today during a presumably very warm interglacial about 400 ka during marine isotope stage 11. Because of the implications for future sea level rise, additional study of the conflicting evidence for warmer conditions and higher sea level during marine isotope stage 11 is needed. Here we present microfossil and isotopic data from marine sediments of the Cariaco Basin supporting the interpretation that global sea level was 10-20 m higher than today during marine isotope stage 11. The increased sea level requires reduction in modern polar ice sheets and is consistent with the interpretation that the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet were absent or greatly reduced during marine isotope stage 11. Our results show a warm marine isotope stage 11 interglacial climate with sea level as high as or above modern sea level that lasted for 25 to 30 k.y. Variations in Earth's orbit around the sun (Milankovitch cycles) are considered to be a primary external force driving glacial-interglacial cycles. Current and marine isotope stage 11 Milankovitch forcing are very similar, suggesting that the present interglacial (Holocene) that began ca. 10 ka will continue for another 15 to 20 k.y. Therefore any anthropogenic climate warming will accelerate the natural process toward reduction in polar ice sheets. The potential for increased rates of sea level rise related to polar ice sheet decay should be considered as a potential natural hazard on centennial time scales.
A Nine-year Record of Groundwater Environmental Tracer Variations in a Weathered Sandstone Plateau Aquifer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cendon, D. I.; Hankin, S. I.; Hughes, C. E.; Meredith, K.; Peterson, M.; Scheiber, L.; Shimizu, Y.

2016-12-01

Most groundwater isotopic studies are limited to one snapshot in time due to high costs associated with sampling and analytical procedures. The timing of sampling within long-term seasonal climatic cycles may affect interpretations, particularly in unconfined or semi-confined aquifer systems. To test the potential influence of decadal climatic trends, particularly on groundwater residence time, we have combined results from a multi-year sampling programme. Hydrogeochemistry and isotopic tracer analysis including H2O stable isotopes, δ13CDIC, 3H, 14CDIC for all samples and 87Sr/86Sr and NO3-δ15N, have been applied to groundwater recovered from the Kulnura - Mangrove Mountain aquifer hosted by a weathered sandstone plateau within the Sydney Basin (Australia). In general, the study area is characterised by alternating dry and wet periods that can be prolonged as they are linked to wider climatic events such as El Niño, La Niña and modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole. The region experienced above average rainfall from 1985-1990 followed by generally drier conditions (1991-2007) and slightly wetter conditions to 2015. Groundwater results from the first years (2006-2010), under generally dry conditions resulted in lower groundwater levels, revealed important inter-annual variations. These are interpreted to be locally driven by groundwater extraction, resulting in a progressive influx of modern groundwater. The progressive input of modern water has exposed deeper parts of the aquifer to increased NO3- concentrations of anthropogenic origin. The change in chemistry of the groundwater, particularly the lowering of groundwater pH, has accelerated the dissolution of carbonate mineral phases that in turn affects 14C residence time assessments. Subsequent sampling results (2012-2015), under higher rainfall conditions, suggest modern recharge in areas previously without measurable tritium activities. The complex interplay between recharge, anthropogenic influences and climate may be further complicated by the local irregularities in the sandstone weathering profile and the transition to preferential groundwater fracture-flow with depth.
McCall Glacier record of Arctic climate change: Interpreting a northern Alaska ice core with regional water isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E. S.; Nolan, M.; McConnell, J.; Sigl, M.; Cherry, J.; Young, J.; Welker, J. M.

2016-01-01

We explored modern precipitation and ice core isotope ratios to better understand both modern and paleo climate in the Arctic. Paleoclimate reconstructions require an understanding of how modern synoptic climate influences proxies used in those reconstructions, such as water isotopes. Therefore we measured periodic precipitation samples at Toolik Lake Field Station (Toolik) in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in the Alaskan Arctic to determine δ18O and δ2H. We applied this multi-decadal local precipitation δ18O/temperature regression to ∼65 years of McCall Glacier (also in the Brooks Range) ice core isotope measurements and found an increase in reconstructed temperatures over the late-20th and early-21st centuries. We also show that the McCall Glacier δ18O isotope record is negatively correlated with the winter bidecadal North Pacific Index (NPI) climate oscillation. McCall Glacier deuterium excess (d-excess, δ2H - 8*δ18O) values display a bidecadal periodicity coherent with the NPI and suggest shifts from more southwestern Bering Sea moisture sources with less sea ice (lower d-excess values) to more northern Arctic Ocean moisture sources with more sea ice (higher d-excess values). Northern ice covered Arctic Ocean McCall Glacier moisture sources are associated with weak Aleutian Low (AL) circulation patterns and the southern moisture sources with strong AL patterns. Ice core d-excess values significantly decrease over the record, coincident with warmer temperatures and a significant reduction in Alaska sea ice concentration, which suggests that ice free northern ocean waters are increasingly serving as terrestrial precipitation moisture sources; a concept recently proposed by modeling studies and also present in Greenland ice core d-excess values during previous transitions to warm periods. This study also shows the efficacy and importance of using ice cores from Arctic valley glaciers in paleoclimate reconstructions.
Decision Participation and School Climate as Predictors of Job Satisfaction and Teachers' Sense of Efficacy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Dianne L.; Tashakkori, Abbas

1995-01-01

Using a national database of nearly 10,000 teachers, the dimensionality of teachers' decision participation, school climate, sense of efficacy, and job satisfaction and their relationships were explored. Dimensions of decision participation did not emerge as best predictors of teachers' sense of efficacy or job satisfaction. (SLD)
Modeling climate change impacts on the forest sector

Treesearch

John R. Mills; Ralph Alig; Richard W. Haynes; Darius M. Adams

2000-01-01

The forest sector has had a relatively long history of applying sectorial models to estimate the effects of atmospheric issues such as acid rain, climate change, and the forestry impacts of reduced atmospheric ozone. The models of the forest sector vary in scope and complexity but share a number of common features and databases.
Quaternary Charcoal Records from Western North and South America: Linkages to Fire, Climate, and Vegetation Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitlock, C.; Marlon, J.; Bartlein, P.

2006-12-01

Particulate charcoal preserved in lake sediments has become an important tool for examining the long-term role of fire as an ecosystem process. The record of microscopic charcoal (100 micron diameter or less) offers information on regional burning patterns, whereas macroscopic particles travel less far and are used to infer local fire history. Reconstruction of past fire activity is based on observations of modern charcoal production, transport, and deposition; modeling; and information on current fire regimes. Approaches and statistics used to interpret charcoal records generally focus on (1) quantifying charcoal content in contiguous samples, (2) determining an appropriate age model, (3) converting raw data to charcoal accumulation rates, and (4) extracting fire signal from noise. Detection of signal in charcoal time series is based on knowledge of recent fires provided by dendrochronological and documentary data. Additional paleofire information is obtained from stratigraphic changes in charcoal composition, pollen assemblages adapted to fire, and other paleoenvironmental proxy. Fire-history studies from western North and South America provide examples of Holocene fire-history reconstructions at spatial scales ranging from watershed to regional. Individual sites show dramatic shifts from crown to surface fire regimes associated with major changes in vegetation. Networks of records reveal regional variations in fire activity and vegetation that are attributed to insolation- driven shifts in atmospheric circulation and changes in short-term climate variability. A global database of paleofire records under development offers an opportunity to consider continental-scale fire patterns and their broad consequences for vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, and atmospheric chemistry.
CARDS - comprehensive aerological reference data set. Station history, Version 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-03-01

The possibility of anthropogenic climate change has reached the attention of Government officials and researchers. However, one cannot study climate change without climate data. The CARDS project will produce high-quality upper-air data for the research community and for policy-makers. The authors intend to produce a dataset which is: easy to use, as complete as possible, as free of random errors as possible. They will also attempt to identify biases and remove them whenever possible. In this report, they relate progress toward their goal. They created a robust new format for archiving upper-air data, and designed a relational database structure tomore » hold them. The authors have converted 13 datasets to the new format and have archived over 10,000,000 individual soundings from 10 separate data sources. They produce and archive a metadata summary of each sounding they load. They have researched station histories, and have built a preliminary upper-air station history database. They have converted station-sorted data from their primary database into synoptic-sorted data in a parallel database. They have tested and will soon implement an advanced quality-control procedure, capable of detecting and often repairing errors in geopotential height, temperature, humidity, and wind. This unique quality-control method uses simultaneous vertical, horizontal, and temporal checks of several meteorological variables. It can detect errors other methods cannot. This report contains the station histories for the CARDS data set.« less

Complementary approaches to diagnosing marine diseases: a union of the modern and the classic

PubMed Central

Burge, Colleen A.; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Getchell, Rodman; House, Marcia; Mydlarz, Laura D.; Prager, Katherine C.; Renault, Tristan; Kiryu, Ikunari; Vega-Thurber, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Linking marine epizootics to a specific aetiology is notoriously difficult. Recent diagnostic successes show that marine disease diagnosis requires both modern, cutting-edge technology (e.g. metagenomics, quantitative real-time PCR) and more classic methods (e.g. transect surveys, histopathology and cell culture). Here, we discuss how this combination of traditional and modern approaches is necessary for rapid and accurate identification of marine diseases, and emphasize how sole reliance on any one technology or technique may lead disease investigations astray. We present diagnostic approaches at different scales, from the macro (environment, community, population and organismal scales) to the micro (tissue, organ, cell and genomic scales). We use disease case studies from a broad range of taxa to illustrate diagnostic successes from combining traditional and modern diagnostic methods. Finally, we recognize the need for increased capacity of centralized databases, networks, data repositories and contingency plans for diagnosis and management of marine disease. PMID:26880839
Complementary approaches to diagnosing marine diseases: a union of the modern and the classic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burge, Colleen A.; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Getchell, Rodman G.; House, Marcia; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mydlarz, Laura D.; Prager, Katherine C.; Sutherland, Kathryn P.; Renault, Tristan; Kiryu, Ikunari; Vega-Thurber, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Linking marine epizootics to a specific aetiology is notoriously difficult. Recent diagnostic successes show that marine disease diagnosis requires both modern, cutting-edge technology (e.g. metagenomics, quantitative real-time PCR) and more classic methods (e.g. transect surveys, histopathology and cell culture). Here, we discuss how this combination of traditional and modern approaches is necessary for rapid and accurate identification of marine diseases, and emphasize how sole reliance on any one technology or technique may lead disease investigations astray. We present diagnostic approaches at different scales, from the macro (environment, community, population and organismal scales) to the micro (tissue, organ, cell and genomic scales). We use disease case studies from a broad range of taxa to illustrate diagnostic successes from combining traditional and modern diagnostic methods. Finally, we recognize the need for increased capacity of centralized databases, networks, data repositories and contingency plans for diagnosis and management of marine disease.
Nasal airflow simulations suggest convergent adaptation in Neanderthals and modern humans.

PubMed

de Azevedo, S; González, M F; Cintas, C; Ramallo, V; Quinto-Sánchez, M; Márquez, F; Hünemeier, T; Paschetta, C; Ruderman, A; Navarro, P; Pazos, B A; Silva de Cerqueira, C C; Velan, O; Ramírez-Rozzi, F; Calvo, N; Castro, H G; Paz, R R; González-José, R

2017-11-21

Both modern humans (MHs) and Neanderthals successfully settled across western Eurasian cold-climate landscapes. Among the many adaptations considered as essential to survival in such landscapes, changes in the nasal morphology and/or function aimed to humidify and warm the air before it reaches the lungs are of key importance. Unfortunately, the lack of soft-tissue evidence in the fossil record turns difficult any comparative study of respiratory performance. Here, we reconstruct the internal nasal cavity of a Neanderthal plus two representatives of climatically divergent MH populations (southwestern Europeans and northeastern Asians). The reconstruction includes mucosa distribution enabling a realistic simulation of the breathing cycle in different climatic conditions via computational fluid dynamics. Striking across-specimens differences in fluid residence times affecting humidification and warming performance at the anterior tract were found under cold/dry climate simulations. Specifically, the Asian model achieves a rapid air conditioning, followed by the Neanderthals, whereas the European model attains a proper conditioning only around the medium-posterior tract. In addition, quantitative-genetic evolutionary analyses of nasal morphology provided signals of stabilizing selection for MH populations, with the removal of Arctic populations turning covariation patterns compatible with evolution by genetic drift. Both results indicate that, departing from important craniofacial differences existing among Neanderthals and MHs, an advantageous species-specific respiratory performance in cold climates may have occurred in both species. Fluid dynamics and evolutionary biology independently provided evidence of nasal evolution, suggesting that adaptive explanations regarding complex functional phenotypes require interdisciplinary approaches aimed to quantify both performance and evolutionary signals on covariation patterns.
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-12

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-01

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
Thermohaline circulation and its box models simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazyura, Kateryna; Polonsky, Alexander; Sannikov, Viktor

2014-05-01

Ocean Thermochaline circulation (THC) is the part of large-scale World Ocean circulation and one of the main climate system components. It is generated by global meridional density gradients, which are controlled by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. THC regulates climate variability on different timescales (from decades to thousands years) [Stocker (2000), Clark (2002)]. Study of paleoclimatic evidences of abrupt and dramatic changes in ocean-atmosphere system in the past (such as, Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events or Younger Dryas, see e.g., [Rahmstorf (2002), Alley & Clark(1999)]) shows that these events are connected with THC regimes. At different times during last 120,000 years, three THC modes have prevailed in the Atlantic. They can be labeled as stadial, interstadial and Heinrich modes or as cold, warm and off mode. THC collapse (or thermohaline catastrophe) can be one of the consequences of global warming (including modern anthropogenic climate changes occurring at the moment). The ideas underlying different box-model studies, possibility of thermochaline catastrophe in present and past are discussed in this presentation. Response of generalized four box model of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation [developing the model of Griffies & Tzippermann (1995)] on periodic, stochastic and linear forcing is studied in details. To estimate climatic parameters of the box model we used monthly salinity and temperature data of ECMWF operational Ocean Reanalysis System 3 (ORA-S3) and data from atmospheric NCEP/NCAR reanalysis on precipitation, and heat fluxes for 1959-2011. Mean values, amplitude of seasonal cycle, amplitudes and periods of typical interdecadal oscillations, white noise level, linear trend coefficients and their significance level were estimated for every hydrophysical parameter. In response to intense freshwater or heat forcing, THC regime can change resulting in thermohaline catastrophe. We analyze relevant thresholds of external forcing in cases of using linear and nonlinear seawater state equation. In the frame of four-box model it is shown that: 1) The occurrence of the thermohaline catastrophe, which is likely happened at Younger Dryas period or developed as Heinrich events in the past, is improbable in modern climate epoch. 2) Choice of nonlinear seawater equitation of state leads to stabilization of warm mode of THC, which corresponds to modern climate state. 3) Typical white noise in heat and freshwater fluxes leads to generation of multidecadal oscillations of volume transport. Time-scale of these oscillations coincides with Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation periodicity. So, it is shown that that recent climate is characterized by quasi-periodical stable multidecadal THC warm regime. Stocker, T. F., 2000: Past and future reorganisations in the climate system. Quat. Sci.Rev, Vol. 19, P.301-319. Clark U., 2002: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. Nature. Vol. 415, P.863-869. Rahmstorf S., 2002: Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120000 years. Nature. Vol. 419, P.207-214. Alley, R. B. & Clark, P. U., 1999: The deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere: a global perspective. Annu.Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. Vol. 27, P.149-182. Griffies S.M., Tziperman E., 1995: A linear thermohaline oscillator driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing. Journal of Climate. Vol. 8. P. 2440-2453.
Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling.

PubMed

Sloth Madsen, M; Maule, C Fox; MacKellar, N; Olesen, J E; Christensen, J Hesselbjerg

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.
Holocene Sea-Levels from Greenland to Antarctica: A Pole-to-Pole Transect of Sea Level History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Benjamin; Peltier, William; Roy, Keven; Ashe, Erica; Shaw, Tim; Engelhart, Simon; Khan, Nicole; Kopp, Robert; Simkins, Lauren; Vacchi, Matteo; Woodroffe, Sarah

2017-04-01

The Holocene is the most recent period during which natural temperature variability predominates and, therefore, provides an important paleo perspective for understanding the climate:sea-level relationship prior to anthropogenic modification of the climate system. But our understanding of Holocene sea level is limited by a lack of a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point. We have compiled a Holocene RSL database of 3000 validated sea-level index points from Greenland, North American Atlantic coast, Caribbean, South American Atlantic coast and Antarctica. The databases were collated using a formalized and consistent methodology to facilitate the development and comparison of regional RSL records. The database also includes information relevant to sediment compaction, and modelling of both modern-day and paleotidal ranges. We develop a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to compare regional RSL histories and estimate rates of change. Holocene RSL history from near-field regions (e.g., Antarctica, Greenland and Canada) reveal a complex pattern of RSL fall from a maximum marine limit due to the net effect of eustatic sea-level rise and glacio-isostatic uplift with rates of RSL fall as great as 70 ± 5 m/ka (East Hudson Bay). Intermediate field regions (e.g., North American mid-Atlantic coast) display variable rates of RSL rise from the cumulative effect of eustatic and isostatic factors. Fast rates of RSL rise (up to 10 ± 4m/ka; New Jersey) are found in the early Holocene in regions near the center of forebulge collapse. Far-field RSL records (South American Atlantic coast) exhibit a mid-Holocene highstand, the timing and magnitude of which varies between 8 and 4 ka and <1 and 6 m, respectively. We compare RSL histories with the predictions from two recent models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process, namely the ICE-6GC (VM5a) model of Peltier et al. (2015) and the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model of Roy and Peltier (2017 in press). Although the fit of these models to the wide range of inferred RSL histories along the pole-to-pole transect is very high quality, unexplained signals are identified in several restricted regions upon which work is continuing. It is remarkable that a spherically symmetric model of the internal viscoelastic structure is able to reconcile the wide range of RSL signals observed.
Six and Three-Hourly Meteorological Observations From 223 Former U.S.S.R. Stations (NPD-048)

DOE Data Explorer

Razuvaev, V. N. [All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, World Data Center, Russia; Apasova, E. B. [All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, World Data Center, Russia; Martuganov, R. A. [All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, World Data Center, Russia; Kaiser, D. P. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Marino, G. P. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2007-11-01

This database contains 6- and 3-hourly meteorological observations from a 223-station network of the former Soviet Union. These data have been made available through cooperation between the two principal climate data centers of the United States and Russia: the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), in Asheville, North Carolina, and the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre (RIHMI-WDC) in Obninsk, Russia. The first version of this database extended through the mid-1980s (ending year dependent upon station) and was made available in 1995 by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) as NDP-048. A second version of the database extended the data records through 1990. This third, and current version of the database includes data through 2000 for over half of the stations (mainly for Russia), whereas the remainder of the stations have records extending through various years of the 1990s. Because of the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991, and since RIHMI-WDC is a Russian institution, only Russain stations are generally available through 2000. The non-Russian station records in this database typically extend through 1991. Station records consist of 6- and 3-hourly observations of some 24 meteorological variables including temperature, past and present weather type, precipitation amount, cloud amount and type, sea level pressure, relative humidity, and wind direction and speed. The 6-hourly observations extend from 1936 through 1965; the 3-hourly observations extend from 1966 through 2000 (or through the latest year available). These data have undergone extensive quality assurance checks by RIHMI-WDC, NCDC, and CDIAC. The database represents a wealth of meteorological information for a large and climatologically important portion of the earth's land area, and should prove extremely useful for a wide variety of regional climate change studies.
Pliocene palaeotemperature reconstruction for the southern North Sea Based on Ostracoda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, A.M.; Whatley, R.C.; Cronin, T. M.; Holtz, T.

1993-01-01

The development of a large northeastern Atlantic shelf ostracod database has confirmed that an intrinsic relationship exists between watermass temperature and the spatial (latitudinal) distribution of benthonic shelf Ostracoda. A second Pliocene ostracod database, using assemblages from four boreholes in The Netherlands and a number of localities from the East Anglian Neogene succession has also been constructed. A quantitative method of modern analogues and the Squared Chord Distance dissimilarity coefficient has been employed as a means of calculating the level of similarity between Recent and Neogene assemblages and, therefore, to aid in the reconstruction of palaeotemperatures in the southern North Sea Basin during the Pliocene. The results, in the form of contoured dissimilarity values, indicate the presence of at least seven palaeoceanographical climatic phases between ca. 5.2 and 1.6 Ma BP. An early Pliocene cooling phase (ecozone A), in which the fauna is dominated by the cryophilic species; Palmenella limicola (Norman), Elofsonella concinna (Jones), Robertsonites tuberculatus (Sars), Neomonoceratina tsurugasakensis (Tabuki) and Acanthocythereis dunelmensis (Norman), supervenes a period of stable subtropical conditions in the Miocene. A 'mid' Pliocene warming phase (ecozone B), which has been documented throughout the North Atlantic, can be recognized in the faunal composition of the sublittoral ostracod assemblages of both The Netherlands and East Anglia. A hiatus between the Coralline and Waltonian crags is thought to be associated with a deterioration in climatic conditions. Recent analogues to The Netherlands faunas of ecozone C (first phase late Pliocene cooling, ca. 2.9 Ma BP) indicate a decrease of approximately 5-6??C in mean summer surface temperatures. A return to elevated temperatures, of a Mauritanian aspect, can be seen in the fauna of the FA2 zone and Waltonian Crag. This amelioration of climate occurred prior to the Praetiglian cold phase (second phase late Pliocene cooling, ca. 2.4 Ma BP) which again saw the reintroduction of cryophilic species including Baffinicythere howei Hazel, Fimarchinella logani (Brady, Crosskey and Robertson) and Hemicythere emarginata (Sars), into the southern North Sea during the Newbournian and Butleyan stages. The final phase of the latest Pliocene (third phase late Pliocene cooling) is only documented in the ostracod fauna of the Norwich Crag. Evidence in the covariance of Loxoconchidae and Norwegian provincial cryophilic species, indicates that the Polar Front may have been as much as 2000 km further south during the deposition of the Chillesford Sand Member (Norwich Crag Fm., ca. 2.0-1.6 Ma BP). ?? 1994.
Speech Processing in Realistic Battlefield Environments (Le Traitement de la Parole en Environnement de Combat Realiste)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

Available Military Speech Databases 2-2 2.3.1 FELIN Database 2-2 2.3.1.1 Overview 2-2 2.3.1.2 Technical Specifications 2-3 2.3.1.3 Limitations...emotion, confusion due to conflicting information, psychological tension, pain , and other typical conditions encountered in the modern battlefield...too, the number of possible language combinations scale with N3. It is clear that in a field of research that has only recently started and with so
Implementation of Three Text to Speech Systems for Kurdish Language

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahrampour, Anvar; Barkhoda, Wafa; Azami, Bahram Zahir

Nowadays, concatenative method is used in most modern TTS systems to produce artificial speech. The most important challenge in this method is choosing appropriate unit for creating database. This unit must warranty smoothness and high quality speech, and also, creating database for it must reasonable and inexpensive. For example, syllable, phoneme, allophone, and, diphone are appropriate units for all-purpose systems. In this paper, we implemented three synthesis systems for Kurdish language based on syllable, allophone, and diphone and compare their quality using subjective testing.
Alcoa Massena Modernization Project and Request for a Single Source Determination

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document may be of assistance in applying the New Source Review (NSR) air permitting regulations including the Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements. This document is part of the NSR Policy and Guidance Database. Some documents in the database are a scanned or retyped version of a paper photocopy of the original. Although we have taken considerable effort to quality assure the documents, some may contain typographical errors. Contact the office that issued the document if you need a copy of the original.
Modern Hardware Technologies and Software Techniques for On-Line Database Storage and Access.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

of the information in a message narrative. This method employs artificial intelligence techniques to extract information, In simalest terms, an...disf ribif ion (tape replacemenf) systemns Database distribution On-fine mass storage Videogame ROM (luke-box I Media Cost Mt $2-10/438 $10-SO/G38...trajninq ot tne great intelligence for the analyst would be required. If, on’ the other hand, a sentence analysis scneme siTole enouq,. for the low-level
Offset Requirements for U.S. Steel's Fairfield Modernization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document may be of assistance in applying the New Source Review (NSR) air permitting regulations including the Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements. This document is part of the NSR Policy and Guidance Database. Some documents in the database are a scanned or retyped version of a paper photocopy of the original. Although we have taken considerable effort to quality assure the documents, some may contain typographical errors. Contact the office that issued the document if you need a copy of the original.
Pollen reconstructions, tree-rings and early climate data from Minnesota, USA: a cautionary tale of bias and signal attentuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St-Jacques, J. M.; Cumming, B. F.; Smol, J. P.; Sauchyn, D.

2015-12-01

High-resolution proxy reconstructions are essential to assess the rate and magnitude of anthropogenic global warming. High-resolution pollen records are being critically examined for the production of accurate climate reconstructions of the last millennium, often as extensions of tree-ring records. Past climate inference from a sedimentary pollen record depends upon the stationarity of the pollen-climate relationship. However, humans have directly altered vegetation, and hence modern pollen deposition is a product of landscape disturbance and climate, unlike in the past with its dominance of climate-derived processes. This could cause serious bias in pollen reconstructions. In the US Midwest, direct human impacts have greatly altered the vegetation and pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-19th century. Using instrumental climate data from the early 1800s from Fort Snelling (Minnesota), we assessed the bias from the conventional method of inferring climate from pollen assemblages in comparison to a calibration set from pre-settlement pollen assemblages and the earliest instrumental climate data. The pre-settlement calibration set provides more accurate reconstructions of 19th century temperature than the modern set does. When both calibration sets are used to reconstruct temperatures since AD 1116 from a varve-dated pollen record from Lake Mina, Minnesota, the conventional method produces significant low-frequency (centennial-scale) signal attenuation and positive bias of 0.8-1.7 oC, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age temperature and an underestimation of anthropogenic warming. We also compared the pollen-inferred moisture reconstruction to a four-century tree-ring-inferred moisture record from Minnesota and Dakotas, which shows that the tree-ring reconstruction is biased towards dry conditions and records wet periods relatively poorly, giving a false impression of regional aridity. The tree-ring chronology also suggests varve chronology problems. It remains to be explored how widespread this landscape disturbance problem is when conventional pollen-based inference methods are used, and consequently how seriously regional manifestations of global warming might have been underestimated with traditional pollen-based techniques.
Climate, herbivory, and fire controls on tropical African forest for the last 60ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, Sarah J.; Russell, James

2016-09-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Africa was drier than today and was followed by rapid step-wise climate changes during the last deglacial period. In much of Africa, these changes led to a drastic reduction of lowland forest area during the LGM, followed by recolonization of the lowlands by forest and woodland in concert with regional warming and wetting. However, the history of southeastern African vegetation contrasts with that observed further north. In particular, forest expansion appears to have occurred in southeastern Africa during episodes of high-latitude northern hemisphere cooling. Although vegetation history in Africa is generally assumed to relate purely to climate, previous studies have not addressed potential feedbacks between climate, vegetation, and disturbance regimes (fire, herbivory) that may create tipping points in ecosystems. This climate-vegetation history has profound implications for our understanding of the modern architecture of lowland and highland forests, both thought to be at risk from future climate change. Here we present analyses of fossil pollen, charcoal, and Sporormiella (dung fungus) on a continuous 60 kyr record from central Lake Tanganyika, Southeast Africa, that illustrates the interplay of climate and disturbance regimes in shaping vegetation composition and structure. We observe that extensive forests dominated the region during the last glacial period despite evidence of decreased rainfall. At the end of the LGM, forest opening at ∼17.5 ka followed warming temperatures but preceded rising precipitation, suggesting that temperature-induced water stress and disturbance from fire and herbivory affected initial landscape transformation. Our Sporormiella record indicates that mega-herbivore populations increased at the early Holocene. This higher animal density increased plant species richness and encouraged landscape heterogeneity until the mid-Holocene. At this time, regional drying followed by the onset of the Iron Age in the late Holocene resulted in expansion of thicket, more open woodland, and disturbance taxa that still characterize the landscape today. This climate-vegetation history has important implications for our understanding of the modern and future distribution of lowland and highland forests, which are at risk from future climate change.
TOWARDS A CORE DATA SET FOR LANDSCAPE ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

One of the primary goals of the NATO Committee on Challenges to Modern Society (CCMS) Landscape Pilot Study is to further develop, apply, and share landscape assessment technologies and spatial databases among participating countries, with the ultimate aim of sustaining environme...
Origin of Clothing Lice Indicates Early Clothing Use by Anatomically Modern Humans in Africa

PubMed Central

Toups, Melissa A.; Kitchen, Andrew; Light, Jessica E.; Reed, David L.

2011-01-01

Clothing use is an important modern behavior that contributed to the successful expansion of humans into higher latitudes and cold climates. Previous research suggests that clothing use originated anywhere between 40,000 and 3 Ma, though there is little direct archaeological, fossil, or genetic evidence to support more specific estimates. Since clothing lice evolved from head louse ancestors once humans adopted clothing, dating the emergence of clothing lice may provide more specific estimates of the origin of clothing use. Here, we use a Bayesian coalescent modeling approach to estimate that clothing lice diverged from head louse ancestors at least by 83,000 and possibly as early as 170,000 years ago. Our analysis suggests that the use of clothing likely originated with anatomically modern humans in Africa and reinforces a broad trend of modern human developments in Africa during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. PMID:20823373
The role of non-technical skills in surgery

PubMed Central

Agha, Riaz A.; Fowler, Alexander J.; Sevdalis, Nick

2015-01-01

Non-technical skills are of increasing importance in surgery and surgical training. A traditional focus on technical skills acquisition and competence is no longer enough for the delivery of a modern, safe surgical practice. This review discusses the importance of non-technical skills and the values that underpin successful modern surgical practice. This narrative review used a number of sources including written and online, there was no specific search strategy of defined databases. Modern surgical practice requires; technical and non-technical skills, evidence-based practice, an emphasis on lifelong learning, monitoring of outcomes and a supportive institutional and health service framework. Finally these requirements need to be combined with a number of personal and professional values including integrity, professionalism and compassionate, patient-centred care. PMID:26904193

OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

2011-12-01

The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.
Geographical assemblages of European raptors and owls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-López, Pascual; Benavent-Corai, José; García-Ripollés, Clara

2008-09-01

In this work we look for geographical structure patterns in European raptors (Order: Falconiformes) and owls (Order: Strigiformes). For this purpose we have conducted our research using freely available tools such as statistical software and databases. To perform the study, presence-absence data for the European raptors and owl species (Class Aves) were downloaded from the BirdLife International website. Using the freely available "pvclust" R-package, we applied similarity Jaccard index and cluster analysis in order to delineate biogeographical relationships for European countries. According to the cluster of similarity, we found that Europe is structured into two main geographical assemblages. The larger length branch separated two main groups: one containing Iceland, Greenland and the countries of central, northern and northwestern Europe, and the other group including the countries of eastern, southern and southwestern Europe. Both groups are divided into two main subgroups. According to our results, the European raptors and owls could be considered structured into four meta-communities well delimited by suture zones defined by Remington (1968) [Remington, C.L., 1968. Suture-zones of hybrid interaction between recently joined biotas. Evol. Biol. 2, 321-428]. Climatic oscillations during the Quaternary Ice Ages could explain at least in part the modern geographical distribution of the group.
Changes in Tibetan Plateau latitude as an important factor for understanding East Asian climate since the Eocene: A modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ran; Jiang, Dabang; Ramstein, Gilles; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lippert, Peter C.; Yu, Entao

2018-02-01

Previous climate modeling studies suggest that the surface uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau (TP) is a crucial parameter for the onset and intensification of the East Asian monsoon during the Cenozoic. Most of these studies have only considered the Himalaya-TP in its present location between ∼26°N and ∼40°N despite numerous recent geophysical studies that reconstruct the Himalaya-TP 10° or more of latitude to the south during the early Paleogene. We have designed a series of climate simulations to explore the sensitivity of East Asian climate to the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. Our simulations suggest that the East Asian climate strongly depends on the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. Surface uplift of a proto-Himalaya-TP in the subtropics intensifies aridity throughout inland Asia north of ∼40°N and enhances precipitation over East Asia. In contrast, the rise of a proto-Himalaya-TP in the tropics only slightly intensifies aridity in inland Asia north of ∼40°N, and slightly increases precipitation in East Asia. Importantly, this climate sensitivity to the latitudinal position of the Himalaya-TP is non-linear, particularly for precipitation across East Asia. The simulated precipitation patterns across East Asia are significantly different between our scenarios in which a proto-plateau is situated between ∼11°N and ∼25°N and between ∼20°N and ∼33°N, but they are similar when the plateau translates northward from between ∼20°N and ∼33°N to its modern position. Our simulations, when interpreted in the context of climate proxy data from Central Asia, support geophysically-based paleogeographic reconstructions in which the southern margin of a modern-elevation proto-Himalaya-TP was located at ∼20°N or further north in the Eocene.
Numerical Modeling of Rocky Mountain Paleoglaciers - Insights into the Climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Subsequent Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

2014-12-01

Numerical modeling of paleoglaciers can yield information on the climatic conditions necessary to sustain those glaciers. In this study we apply a coupled 2-d mass/energy balance and flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstruct local last glacial maximum (LLGM) glaciers and paleoclimate in ten study areas along the crest of the U.S. Rocky Mountains between 33°N and 49°N. In some of the areas, where timing of post-LLGM ice recession is constrained by surface exposure ages on either polished bedrock upvalley from the LLGM moraines or post-LLGM recessional moraines, we use the model to assess magnitudes and rates of climate change during deglaciation. The modeling reveals a complex pattern of LLGM climate. The magnitude of LLGM-to-modern climate change (temperature and/or precipitation change) was greater in both the northern (Montana) Rocky Mountains and southern (New Mexico) Rocky Mountains than in the middle (Wyoming and Colorado) Rocky Mountains. We use temperature depression estimates from global and regional climate models to infer LLGM precipitation from our glacier model results. Our results suggest a reduction of precipitation coupled with strongly depressed temperatures in the north, contrasted with strongly enhanced precipitation and much more modest temperature depression in the south. The middle Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming appear to have experienced a reduction in precipitation at the LLGM without the strong temperature depression of the northern Rocky Mountains. Preliminary work on modeling of deglaciation in the Sangre de Cristo Range in southern Colorado suggests that approximately half of the LLGM-to-modern climate change took place during the initial ~2400 years of deglaciation. If increasing temperature and changing solar insolation were the sole drivers of this initial deglaciation, then temperature would need to have risen by slightly more than 1°C/ky through this interval to account for the observed rate of ice recession.
Global Soil Respiration: Interaction with Environmental Variables and Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, J.; Steele, M.

2016-12-01

Background, methods, objectivesTerrestrial ecosystems take up around 1.7 Pg C per year; however, the role of terrestrial ecosystems as a carbon sink may change to carbon source by 2050, as a result of positive feedback of soil respiration response to global warming. Nevertheless, limited evidence shows that soil carbon is decreasing and the role of terrestrial ecosystems is changing under warming. One possibility is the positive feedback may slow due to the acclimation of soil respiration as a result of decreasing temperature sensitivity (Q10) with warming. To verify and quantify the uncertainty in soil carbon cycling and feedbacks to climate change, we assembled soil respiration observations from 1961 to 2014 from 724 publications into a monthly global soil respiration database (MSRDB), which included 13482 soil respiration measurements together with 38 other ancillary measurements from 538 sites. Using this database we examined macroscale variation in the relationship between soil respiration and air temperature, precipitation, leaf area index and soil properties. We also quantified global soil respiration, the sources of uncertainty, and its feedback to warming based on climate region-oriented models with variant Q10function. Results and ConclusionsOur results showed substantial heterogeneity in the relationship between soil respiration and environmental factors across different climate regions. For example, soil respiration was strongly related to vegetation (via leaf area index) in colder regions, but not in tropical region. Only in tropical and arid regions did soil properties explain any variation in soil respiration. Global annual mean soil respiration from 1961 to 2014 was estimated to be 72.41 Pg C yr-1 based on monthly global soil respiration database, 25 Pg lower than estimated based on yearly soil respiration database. By using the variable Q10 models, we estimated that global soil respiration increased at a rate of 0.03 Pg C yr-1 from 1961 to 2014, smaller than previous studies ( 0.1 Pg C yr-1). The substantial variations in these relationships suggest that regional scales is important for understanding and prediction of global carbon cycling and how it response to climate change.
Final report for DOE Award # DE- SC0010039*: Carbon dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate: Forcings, feedbacks, and implications for earth system modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; DeLucia, Evan H.; Duval, Benjamin D.

2015-10-29

To advance understanding of C dynamics of forests globally, we compiled a new database, the Forest C database (ForC-db), which contains data on ground-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes along with disturbance history. This database currently contains 18,791 records from 2009 sites, making it the largest and most comprehensive database of C stocks and flows in forest ecosystems globally. The tropical component of the database will be published in conjunction with a manuscript that is currently under review (Anderson-Teixeira et al., in review). Database development continues, and we hope to maintain a dynamic instance of the entiremore » (global) database.« less
Anatomy and evolution of database search engines-a central component of mass spectrometry based proteomic workflows.

PubMed

Verheggen, Kenneth; Raeder, Helge; Berven, Frode S; Martens, Lennart; Barsnes, Harald; Vaudel, Marc

2017-09-13

Sequence database search engines are bioinformatics algorithms that identify peptides from tandem mass spectra using a reference protein sequence database. Two decades of development, notably driven by advances in mass spectrometry, have provided scientists with more than 30 published search engines, each with its own properties. In this review, we present the common paradigm behind the different implementations, and its limitations for modern mass spectrometry datasets. We also detail how the search engines attempt to alleviate these limitations, and provide an overview of the different software frameworks available to the researcher. Finally, we highlight alternative approaches for the identification of proteomic mass spectrometry datasets, either as a replacement for, or as a complement to, sequence database search engines. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
The development of a dynamic software for the user interaction from the geographic information system environment with the database of the calibration site of the satellite remote electro-optic sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyelyk, Ya. I.; Semeniv, O. V.

2015-12-01

The state of the problem of the post-launch calibration of the satellite electro-optic remote sensors and its solutions in Ukraine is analyzed. The database is improved and dynamic services for user interaction with database from the environment of open geographical information system Quantum GIS for information support of calibration activities are created. A dynamic application under QGIS is developed, implementing these services in the direction of the possibility of data entering, editing and extraction from the database, using the technology of object-oriented programming and of modern complex program design patterns. The functional and algorithmic support of this dynamic software and its interface are developed.
Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

2013-04-01

Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia, and independent model evaluation on regional level is necessary to identify "better than average" GCMs. • Each of the ensembles combining results from several "better than average" models replicate selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes better than any single GCM. The ensemble skills are parameter-specific and depend on models it consists of. The best results are not necessarily those based on the ensemble comprised by all "better than average" models. • Comprehensive evaluation of climatic scenarios using specific criteria narrows the range of uncertainties in environmental projections.
Germination, genetics, and growth of an ancient date seed.

PubMed

Sallon, Sarah; Solowey, Elaine; Cohen, Yuval; Korchinsky, Raia; Egli, Markus; Woodhatch, Ivan; Simchoni, Orit; Kislev, Mordechai

2008-06-13

An ancient date seed (Phoenix dactylifera L.) excavated from Masada and radiocarbon-dated to the first century Common Era was germinated. Climatic conditions at the Dead Sea may have contributed to the longevity of this oldest, directly dated, viable seed. Growth and development of the seedling over 26 months was compatible with normal date seedlings propagated from modern seeds. Preliminary molecular characterization demonstrated high levels of genetic variation in comparison to modern, elite date cultivars currently growing in Israel. As a representative of an extinct date palm population, this seedling can provide insights into the historic date culture of the Dead Sea region. It also has importance for seed banking and conservation and may be of relevance to modern date palm cultivation.
The Centre for Early Human Behaviour (EHB) at the University of Bergen: A transdisciplinary exploration into the evolution of homo sapiens behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolowski, Stefan; Henshilwood, Christopher; Jansen, Eystein

2017-04-01

Homo sapiens was anatomically modern by 200 000 years ago in Africa, but there is no archaeological evidence to demonstrate that behaviour was modern at the time. Attributes of modern behaviour, perhaps inspired by changes in the human brain, are only recognizable after 100 000 years ago. Before we can study the process, we must critically define the criteria for the term 'modern behaviour' and then find a means to recognize such behavior in the record. This seemingly simple research statement involves complex exploration by a team of specialists. In this highly competitive research field our centre will, for the first time, be able to rise to the challenge by combining the skills of cutting-edge scientists in archaeology, climate reconstruction and modelling, and the cognitive and social sciences. Over the next decade we will integrate knowledge and methods from different disciplines to synthesize approaches and contribute to a sophisticated understanding of early human behaviour. Our highly ambitious research program will focus explicitly on rare, well preserved archaeological sites occupied in the period between 100-50 000 years ago because these contain the 'keys' for unlocking the past. A major competitive edge is the EHB Director's 25 years of archaeological experience and his long-term exclusive access, with permits, to a number of the best-preserved sites in the southern Cape, South Africa - a region regarded as a major locus for vital evidence that could inform on the behaviour of early humans. Our planned excavations at existing and new sites and our ground-breaking and innovative interdisciplinary approaches, including climate (The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research) and cognitive research, to understanding the processes that shaped human cultures. Primarily, EHB will directly address unanswered, first order questions about Homo sapiens: a) what defines the switch to 'modern behaviour', exactly how should this term be defined and then, when, why and how did the 'switch' occur; b) were there changes in the human brain at that time that accelerated behavioural variability and how can these be measured now? Secondary linked tasks address the social organization of these early humans: was social cohesion enhanced by symbolic material culture or vice-versa and did it lead to innovation; what cognitive skills had to be in place in order for other skills to develop; how adaptable were humans to environmental change and did climate act as a driver for technological innovation, social change and subsistence adaptations? This presentation will introduce the recently awarded center, its key objectives and ambitions, and serve as an open invitation to collaboration and intellectual engagement on this exciting topic.
Climate uniformity: its influence on team communication quality, task conflict, and team performance.

PubMed

González-Romá, Vicente; Hernández, Ana

2014-11-01

We investigated whether climate uniformity (the pattern of climate perceptions of organizational support within the team) is related to task conflict, team communication quality, and team performance. We used a sample composed of 141 bank branches and collected data at 3 time points. The results obtained showed that, after controlling for aggregate team climate, climate strength, and their interaction, a type of nonuniform climate pattern (weak dissimilarity) was directly related to task conflict and team communication quality. Teams with weak dissimilarity nonuniform patterns tended to show higher levels of task conflict and lower levels of team communication quality than teams with uniform climate patterns. The relationship between weak dissimilarity patterns and team performance was fully mediated by team communication quality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).
It's time for a crisper image of the Face of the Earth: Landsat and climate time series for massive land cover & climate change mapping at detailed resolution.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pons, Xavier; Miquel, Ninyerola; Oscar, González-Guerrero; Cristina, Cea; Pere, Serra; Alaitz, Zabala; Lluís, Pesquer; Ivette, Serral; Joan, Masó; Cristina, Domingo; Maria, Serra Josep; Jordi, Cristóbal; Chris, Hain; Martha, Anderson; Juanjo, Vidal

2014-05-01

Combining climate dynamics and land cover at a relative coarse resolution allows a very interesting approach to global studies, because in many cases these studies are based on a quite high temporal resolution, but they may be limited in large areas like the Mediterranean. However, the current availability of long time series of Landsat imagery and spatially detailed surface climate models allow thinking on global databases improving the results of mapping in areas with a complex history of landscape dynamics, characterized by fragmentation, or areas where relief creates intricate climate patterns that can be hardly monitored or modeled at coarse spatial resolutions. DinaCliVe (supported by the Spanish Government and ERDF, and by the Catalan Government, under grants CGL2012-33927 and SGR2009-1511) is the name of the project that aims analyzing land cover and land use dynamics as well as vegetation stress, with a particular emphasis on droughts, and the role that climate variation may have had in such phenomena. To meet this objective is proposed to design a massive database from long time series of Landsat land cover products (grouped in quinquennia) and monthly climate records (in situ climate data) for the Iberian Peninsula (582,000 km2). The whole area encompasses 47 Landsat WRS2 scenes (Landsat 4 to 8 missions, from path 197 to 202 and from rows 30 to 34), and 52 Landsat WRS1 scenes (for the previous Landsat missions, 212 to 221 and 30 to 34). Therefore, a mean of 49.5 Landsat scenes, 8 quinquennia per scene and a about 6 dates per quinquennium , from 1975 to present, produces around 2376 sets resulting in 30 m x 30 m spatial resolution maps. Each set is composed by highly coherent geometric and radiometric multispectral and multitemporal (to account for phenology) imagery as well as vegetation and wetness indexes, and several derived topographic information (about 10 Tbyte of data). Furthermore, on the basis on a previous work: the Digital Climatic Atlas of the Iberian Peninsula, spatio-temporal surface climate data has been generated with a monthly resolution (from January 1950 to December 2010) through a multiple regression model and residuals spatial interpolation using geographic variables (altitude, latitude and continentality) and solar radiation (only in the case of temperatures). This database includes precipitation, mean minimum and mean maximum air temperature and mean air temperature, improving the previous one by using the ASTER GDEM at 30 m spatial resolution, by deepening to a monthly resolution and by increasing the number of meteorological stations used, representing a total amount of 0.7 Tbyte of data. An initial validation shows accuracies higher than 85 % for land cover maps and an RMS of 1.2 ºC, 1.6 ºC and 22 mm for mean and extreme temperatures, and for precipitation, respectively. This amount of new detailed data for the Iberian Peninsula framework will be used to study the spatial direction, velocity and acceleration of the tendencies related to climate change, land cover and tree line dynamics. A global analysis using all these datasets will try to discriminate the climatic signal when interpreted together with anthropogenic driving forces. Ultimately, getting ready for massive database computation and analysis will improve predictions for global models that will require of the growing high-resolution information available.
Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.
Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2014-12-01

As per recent Department of Energy (DOE) sustainability requirements, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a climate projection for the DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, SC. This will comprise data from both a statistical and a dynamic downscaling process, each interpolated to the SRS. We require variables most relevant to operational activities at the site (such as the US Forest Service's forest management program), and select temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity as being most relevant to energy and water resource requirements, fire and forest ecology, and facility and worker safety. We then develop projections of the means and extremes of these variables, estimate the effect on site operations, and develop long-term mitigation strategies. For example, given that outdoor work while wearing protective gear is a daily facet of site operations, heat stress is of primary importance to work planning, and we use the downscaled data to estimate changes in the occurrence of high temperatures. For the statistical downscaling, we use global climate model (GCM) data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP-5), which was used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). GCM data from five research groups was selected, and two climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 - are used with observed data from site instruments and other databases to produce the downscaled projections. We apply a quantile regression downscaling method, which involves the use of the observed cumulative distribution function to correct that of the GCM. This produces a downscaled projection with an interannual variability closer to that of the observed data and allows for more extreme values in the projections, which are often absent in GCM data. The statistically downscaled data is complemented with dynamically downscaled data from the NARCCAP database, which comprises output from regional climate models forced with GCM output from the CMIP-3 database of GCM simulations. Applications of the downscaled climate projections to some of the unique operational needs of a large DOE weapons complex site are described.
NASA's Global Change Master Directory: Discover and Access Earth Science Data Sets, Related Data Services, and Climate Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleman, A.; Olsen, L. M.; Ritz, S.; Stevens, T.; Morahan, M.; Grebas, S. K.

2011-12-01

NASA's Global Change Master Directory provides the scientific community with the ability to discover, access, and use Earth science data, data-related services, and climate diagnostics worldwide.The GCMD offers descriptions of Earth science data sets using the Directory Interchange Format (DIF) metadata standard; Earth science related data services are described using the Service Entry Resource Format (SERF); and climate visualizations are described using the Climate Diagnostic (CD) standard. The DIF, SERF and CD standards each capture data attributes used to determine whether a data set, service, or climate visualization is relevant to a user's needs.Metadata fields include: title, summary, science keywords, service keywords, data center, data set citation, personnel, instrument, platform, quality, related URL, temporal and spatial coverage, data resolution and distribution information.In addition, nine valuable sets of controlled vocabularies have been developed to assist users in normalizing the search for data descriptions. An update to the GCMD's search functionality is planned to further capitalize on the controlled vocabularies during database queries.By implementing a dynamic keyword "tree", users will have the ability to search for data sets by combining keywords in new ways.This will allow users to conduct more relevant and efficient database searches to support the free exchange and re-use of Earth science data.
Late Pleniglacial vegetation in eastern-central Europe: are there modern analogues in Siberia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magyari, Enikő Katalin; Kuneš, Petr; Jakab, Gusztáv; Sümegi, Pál; Pelánková, Barbora; Schäbitz, Frank; Braun, Mihály; Chytrý, Milan

2014-07-01

To characterize Late Pleniglacial (LPG: 26.5-15 ka cal BP) and particularly Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 ± 2 ka cal BP) vegetation and climate, fossil pollen assemblages are often compared with modern pollen assemblages. Given the non-analogue climate of the LPG, a key question is how glacial pollen assemblages and thereby vegetation compare with modern vegetation. In this paper we present three LPG pollen records from the Carpathian Basin and the adjoining Carpathian Mountains to address this question and provide a concise compositional characterization of the LPG vegetation. Fossil pollen assemblages were compared with surface pollen spectra from the Altai-Sayan Mountains in southern Siberia. This area shows many similarities with the LPG vegetation of eastern-central Europe, and has long been considered as its best modern analogue. Ordination and analogue matching were used to characterize vegetation composition and find the best analogues. Our results show that few LPG pollen assemblages have statistically significant analogues in southern Siberia. When analogue pairings occur they suggest the predominance of wet and mesic grasslands and dry steppe in the studied region. Wooded vegetation types (continental and suboceanic hemiboreal forest, continental taiga) appear as significant analogues only in a few cases during the LGM and more frequently after 16 ka cal BP. These results suggest that the LPG landscape of the Carpathian Basin was dominated by dry steppe that occurred outside the river floodplains, while wet and mesic grasslands occurred in the floodplains and on other sites influenced by ground water. Woody vegetation mainly occurred in river valleys, on wet north-facing hillsides, and scattered trees were likely also present on the loess plateaus. The dominant woody species were Larix, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus mugo, Pinus cembra, Picea abies, Betula pendula/pubescens, Betula nana, Juniperus, Hippophaë rhamnoides, Populus, Salix and Alnus. The pollen records suggest uninterrupted presence of mesophilous temperate trees (Quercus, Ulmus, Corylus, Fagus and Fraxinus excelsior) in the Eastern Carpathian Mountains throughout the LPG. We demonstrate that the LPG vegetation in this area was characterized by increasing grass cover and high frequency of wildfires. We conclude that pollen spectra over represent trees in the forest-steppe landscape of the LPG, furthermore pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions for the LPG are challenging in this area due to the scarcity of modern analogues.
Development of a station based climate database for SWAT and APEX assessments in the U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water quality simulation models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) are widely used in the U.S. These models require large amounts of spatial and tabular data to simulate the natural world. Accurate and seamless daily climatic data are critical...
Deaf and Hard of Hearing Students' Perspectives on Bullying and School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiner, Mary T.; Day, Stefanie J.; Galvan, Dennis

2013-01-01

Student perspectives reflect school climate. The study examined perspectives among deaf and hard of hearing students in residential and large day schools regarding bullying, and compared these perspectives with those of a national database of hearing students. The participants were 812 deaf and hard of hearing students in 11 U.S. schools. Data…
2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

2011-02-01

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

Simulation of modern climate with the new version of the INM RAS climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volodin, E. M.; Mortikov, E. V.; Kostrykin, S. V.; Galin, V. Ya.; Lykosov, V. N.; Gritsun, A. S.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Yakovlev, N. G.

2017-03-01

The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth's climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved.
LiPD and CSciBox: A Case Study in Why Data Standards are Important for Paleoscience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, I.; Bradley, E.; McKay, N.; Emile-Geay, J.; de Vesine, L. R.; Anderson, K. A.; White, J. W. C.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.

2016-12-01

CSciBox [1] is an integrated software system that helps geoscientists build and evaluate age models. Its user chooses from a number of built-in analysis tools, composing them into an analysis workflow and applying it to paleoclimate proxy datasets. CSciBox employs modern database technology to store both the data and the analysis results in an easily accessible and searchable form, and offers the user access to the computational toolbox, the data, and the results via a graphical user interface and a sophisticated plotter. Standards are a staple of modern life, and underlie any form of automation. Without data standards, it is difficult, if not impossible, to construct effective computer tools for paleoscience analysis. The LiPD (Linked Paleo Data) framework [2] enables the storage of both data and metadata in systematic, meaningful, machine-readable ways. LiPD has been a primary enabler of CSciBox's goals of usability, interoperability, and reproducibility. Building LiPD capabilities into CSciBox's importer, for instance, eliminated the need to ask the user about file formats, variable names, relationships between columns in the input file, etc. Building LiPD capabilities into the exporter facilitated the storage of complete details about the input data-provenance, preprocessing steps, etc.-as well as full descriptions of any analyses that were performed using the CSciBox tool, along with citations to appropriate references. This comprehensive collection of data and metadata, which is all linked together in a semantically meaningful, machine-readable way, not only completely documents the analyses and makes them reproducible. It also enables interoperability with any other software system that employs the LiPD standard. [1] www.cs.colorado.edu/ lizb/cscience.html[2] McKay & Emile-Geay, Climate of the Past 12:1093 (2016)
A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

2016-04-01

In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, relocations (to airports) efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel air temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be global radiation, wind, humidity and cloud cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and wet-bulb temperature are potentially important. Metadata that describe the parallel measurements is as important as the data itself and will be collected as well. For example, the types of the instruments, their siting, height, maintenance, etc. Because they are widely used to study moderate extremes, we will compute the indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case the daily data cannot be shared, we would appreciate contributions containing these indices from parallel measurements. For more information: http://tinyurl.com/ISTI-Parallel
Organizing, exploring, and analyzing antibody sequence data: the case for relational-database managers.

PubMed

Owens, John

2009-01-01

Technological advances in the acquisition of DNA and protein sequence information and the resulting onrush of data can quickly overwhelm the scientist unprepared for the volume of information that must be evaluated and carefully dissected to discover its significance. Few laboratories have the luxury of dedicated personnel to organize, analyze, or consistently record a mix of arriving sequence data. A methodology based on a modern relational-database manager is presented that is both a natural storage vessel for antibody sequence information and a conduit for organizing and exploring sequence data and accompanying annotation text. The expertise necessary to implement such a plan is equal to that required by electronic word processors or spreadsheet applications. Antibody sequence projects maintained as independent databases are selectively unified by the relational-database manager into larger database families that contribute to local analyses, reports, interactive HTML pages, or exported to facilities dedicated to sophisticated sequence analysis techniques. Database files are transposable among current versions of Microsoft, Macintosh, and UNIX operating systems.
Inter Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Yellow Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

the world climate is in fact warming due to anthropogenic causes (Anderegg et al. 2010; Solomon et al. 2009). To put this in terms for this research ...2006). The present research uses a 0.5’ resolution. B. SEDIMENTS DATABASE There are four openly available sediment databases: Enhanced, Standard...DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This research investigates the inter-annual acoustic variability in the Yellow Sea identified from
Giant lizards occupied herbivorous mammalian ecospace during the Paleogene greenhouse in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Head, Jason J; Gunnell, Gregg F; Holroyd, Patricia A; Hutchison, J Howard; Ciochon, Russell L

2013-07-22

Mammals dominate modern terrestrial herbivore ecosystems, whereas extant herbivorous reptiles are limited in diversity and body size. The evolution of reptile herbivory and its relationship to mammalian diversification is poorly understood with respect to climate and the roles of predation pressure and competition for food resources. Here, we describe a giant fossil acrodontan lizard recovered with a diverse mammal assemblage from the late middle Eocene Pondaung Formation of Myanmar, which provides a historical test of factors controlling body size in herbivorous squamates. We infer a predominately herbivorous feeding ecology for the new acrodontan based on dental anatomy, phylogenetic relationships and body size. Ranking body masses for Pondaung Formation vertebrates indicates that the lizard occupied a size niche among the larger herbivores and was larger than most carnivorous mammals. Paleotemperature estimates of Pondaung Formation environments based on the body size of the new lizard are approximately 2-5°C higher than modern. These results indicate that competitive exclusion and predation by mammals did not restrict body size evolution in these herbivorous squamates, and elevated temperatures relative to modern climates during the Paleogene greenhouse may have resulted in the evolution of gigantism through elevated poikilothermic metabolic rates and in response to increases in floral productivity.
The impact of Cenozoic cooling on assemblage diversity in planktonic foraminifera

PubMed Central

Pearson, Paul N.; Dunkley Jones, Tom; Farnsworth, Alexander; Lunt, Daniel J.; Markwick, Paul; Purvis, Andy

2016-01-01

The Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera (PF) (calcareous zooplankton) have arguably the most detailed fossil record of any group. The quality of this record allows models of environmental controls on macroecology, developed for Recent assemblages, to be tested on intervals with profoundly different climatic conditions. These analyses shed light on the role of long-term global cooling in establishing the modern latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)—one of the most powerful generalizations in biogeography and macroecology. Here, we test the transferability of environment-diversity models developed for modern PF assemblages to the Eocene epoch (approx. 56–34 Ma), a time of pronounced global warmth. Environmental variables from global climate models are combined with Recent environment–diversity models to predict Eocene richness gradients, which are then compared with observed patterns. The results indicate the modern LDG—lower richness towards the poles—developed through the Eocene. Three possible causes are suggested for the mismatch between statistical model predictions and data in the Early Eocene: the environmental estimates are inaccurate, the statistical model misses a relevant variable, or the intercorrelations among facets of diversity—e.g. richness, evenness, functional diversity—have changed over geological time. By the Late Eocene, environment–diversity relationships were much more similar to those found today. PMID:26977064
Giant lizards occupied herbivorous mammalian ecospace during the Paleogene greenhouse in Southeast Asia

PubMed Central

Head, Jason J.; Gunnell, Gregg F.; Holroyd, Patricia A.; Hutchison, J. Howard; Ciochon, Russell L.

2013-01-01

Mammals dominate modern terrestrial herbivore ecosystems, whereas extant herbivorous reptiles are limited in diversity and body size. The evolution of reptile herbivory and its relationship to mammalian diversification is poorly understood with respect to climate and the roles of predation pressure and competition for food resources. Here, we describe a giant fossil acrodontan lizard recovered with a diverse mammal assemblage from the late middle Eocene Pondaung Formation of Myanmar, which provides a historical test of factors controlling body size in herbivorous squamates. We infer a predominately herbivorous feeding ecology for the new acrodontan based on dental anatomy, phylogenetic relationships and body size. Ranking body masses for Pondaung Formation vertebrates indicates that the lizard occupied a size niche among the larger herbivores and was larger than most carnivorous mammals. Paleotemperature estimates of Pondaung Formation environments based on the body size of the new lizard are approximately 2–5°C higher than modern. These results indicate that competitive exclusion and predation by mammals did not restrict body size evolution in these herbivorous squamates, and elevated temperatures relative to modern climates during the Paleogene greenhouse may have resulted in the evolution of gigantism through elevated poikilothermic metabolic rates and in response to increases in floral productivity. PMID:23740779
Modern, Sangamon and Yarmouth soil development in loess of unglaciated southwestern Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimley, D.A.; Follmer, L.R.; Hughes, R.E.; Solheid, P.A.

2003-01-01

The Thebes Section in unglaciated southwestern Illinois contains a well preserved ??? 500 kyr loess-paleosol sequence with four loesses and three interglacial soils. Various magnetic, mineralogical, and elemental properties were analyzed and compared over the thickness of soil sola. These proxies for soil] development intensity have the following trend: Yarmouth Geosol > Sangamon Geosol > modern soil. Quartz/plagioclase, Zr/Sr, and TiO2/Na2O ratios were most sensitive to weathering. Frequency dependent magnetic susceptibility and anhysteretic remanent magnetization, greatest in A horizons, also correspond well with soil development intensity. Neoformed mixed-layered kaolinite/expandables, suggestive of a warm/humid climate, were detected in the Sangamon and Yarmouth soil sola. Clay illuviation in soils was among the least sensitive indicators of soil development. Differences in properties among interglacial soils are interpreted to primarily reflect soil development duration, with climatic effects being secondary. Assuming logarithmic decreases in weathering rates, the observed weathering in the Sangamon Geosol is consistent with 50 kyr of interglacial weathering (Oxygen Isotope Stage 5) compared to 10 kyr for the modern soil (Oxygen Isotope Stage 1). We propose that the Yarmouth Geosol in the central Midwest formed over 180 kyr of interglacial weathering (including oxygen isotope stages 7, 9, and 11). ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Large floods and climatic change during the Holocene on the Ara River, Central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossman, Michael J.

2001-07-01

A reconstruction of part of the Holocene large flood record for the Ara River in central Japan is presented. Maximum intermediate gravel-size dimensions of terrace and modern floodplain gravels were measured along an 18-km reach of the river and were used in tractive force equations to estimate minimum competent flood depths. Results suggest that the magnitudes of large floods on the Ara River have varied in a non-random fashion since the end of the last glacial period. Large floods with greater magnitudes occurred during the warming period of the post-glacial and the warmer early to middle Holocene (to ˜5500 years BP). A shift in the magnitudes of large floods occurred ˜5500-5000 years BP. From this time, during the cooler middle to late Holocene, large floods generally had lower magnitudes. In the modern period, large flood magnitudes are the largest in the data set. As typhoons are the main cause of large floods on the Ara River in the modern record, the variation in large flood magnitudes suggests that the incidence of typhoon visits to the central Japan changed as the climate changed during the Holocene. Further, significant dates in the large flood record on the Ara River correspond to significant dates in Europe and the USA.
Oxygen and carbon isotopes in terrestrial mollusk shells. From modern to fossil values, climatic impact on the mollusk diet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metref, S.; Labonne, M.; Rousseau, D.; Rousseau, D.; Bentaleb, I.; Vianey-Liaud, M.

2001-12-01

Stable isotope studies on fossil material as well as on sediment have been very successful these past years indicating such method a very promising Quaternary paleonvironmental index for continental studies. Although most of the studies on fossil material was related to modern material collected near the fossil record, no precise analysis of the impact of the diet and precipitation was carried out in order to justify the previous assumptions. Here we present the results of two sets of analysis from terrestrial mollusk shells, a particularly good climate indicator. On one hand, individuals from hatched eggs of raised Helix aspersa were fed with different plants characteristic of the two main photosynthetic pathways (C3 and C4), and waters of different isotopic values. The shells were analyzed in order to observe the impact of the food diet and of the precipitation on the isotope content of the shell carbonate. On the other hand, the study of fossil shells (Vertigo modesta) from the loess series of the Great Plains, an area where shifts in photosynthetic pathways where detected during the last isotopic stage 2 (24,000-12,000 yr B.P.), is carried out. The interpretation of the results is based on those of the study of modern shells
Climate Museum and Garden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, Jay; Bille, Dorthe

2017-04-01

The Climate Museum and Garden is conceived as a cross-disciplinary experience, where the arts and sciences link together to increase understanding of the Earth's climate and its relevance to our fate as a species. This would be a place of inspiration. The Climate Museum and Garden would merge concepts of modern art museums and modern science museums, with exhibitions, live music and theater performances, visitor interaction, unique discoveries and reflection. It would be a place where visitors are immersed in experiences, lingering indoors and out in quiet consideration and gratitude for our planet's atmosphere. The story of climate change is compelling in its own right; theories of the greenhouse effect go back over century and climate policy has stretched back a few decades. Whereas scientific researchers have been contributing to understanding the mechanisms and impacts of climate change for many decades; whereas researchers have participated in climate summits and informed policy makers; whereas researchers have taught classes of gifted students; in all of this, the public has mostly missed out. This public relations gap has been unfortunately filled by those that would seek to politicize and mislead the public, leading to an engagement gap among the general public. Now we stand on a precipice. Therefore we see a ripe opportunity to reach out and inspire the population. We build off of current pedagogic research that shows that experienced-based learning is more impactful when it engages the senses and elicits an emotional response. People understand what they experience, what they feel, and this serves as the basis for personal reflection. In this sense the visitor experience is generative, in that it promotes further personal investigation and interaction. The Climate Museum and Garden would be a start. In the future, we envisage a future network of climate museums in all major cities. It would be a flagship attraction for any city, along with their art museums, their science museums, their history museums and their parks. A climate museum is the opportunity to symbolically unify our pursuits as we are unified by the same climate: we all breathe the same atmosphere. The purpose of this presentation is to share a vision, propagate an idea and build momentum in order to bring the Climate Museum and Garden to fruition. We present some of the ideas for exhibitions and experiences we would like visitors to have. We welcome anybody to contribute with ideas, resources, contacts, or simply their support.
A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on contemporary Satellite and other Observations for Assessing Regional Climate Model Fidelity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Mattman, C.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Lean, P.

2011-12-01

Evaluation of climate models against observations is an essential part of assessing the impact of climate variations and change on regionally important sectors and improving climate models. Regional climate models (RCMs) are of a particular concern. RCMs provide fine-scale climate needed by the assessment community via downscaling global climate model projections such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that form one aspect of the quantitative basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The lack of reliable fine-resolution observational data and formal tools and metrics has represented a challenge in evaluating RCMs. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information and constraints on many different processes within the climate system. Due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using contemporary observations, however, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL and UCLA have developed the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the regional modeling community. The system includes a central database (Regional Climate Model Evaluation Database: RCMED) to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating and plotting statistical metrics to assess model performance (Regional Climate Model Evaluation Tool: RCMET). This allows the time taken to compare model data with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. RCMES is a component of the recent ExArch project, an international effort for facilitating the archive and access of massive amounts data for users using cloud-based infrastructure, in this case as applied to the study of climate and climate change. This presentation will describe RCMES and demonstrate its utility using examples from RCMs applied to the southwest US as well as to Africa based on output from the CORDEX activity. Application of RCMES to the evaluation of multi-RCM hindcast for CORDEX-Africa will be presented in a companion paper in A41.
Map and digital database of sedimentary basins and indications of petroleum in the Central Alaska Province

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Sandra M.; Stanley, Richard G.

2003-01-01

This database and accompanying text depict historical and modern reported occurrences of petroleum both in wells and at the surface within the boundaries of the Central Alaska Province. These data were compiled from previously published and unpublished sources and were prepared for use in the 2002 U.S. Geological Survey petroleum assessment of Central Alaska, Yukon Flats region. Indications of petroleum are described as oil or gas shows in wells, oil or gas seeps, or outcrops of oil shale or oil-bearing rock and include confirmed and unconfirmed reports. The scale of the source map limits the spatial resolution (scale) of the database to 1:2,500,000 or smaller.
Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields

PubMed Central

van Wart, Justin; Grassini, Patricio; Cassman, Kenneth G

2013-01-01

Crop simulation models can be used to estimate impact of current and future climates on crop yields and food security, but require long-term historical daily weather data to obtain robust simulations. In many regions where crops are grown, daily weather data are not available. Alternatively, gridded weather databases (GWD) with complete terrestrial coverage are available, typically derived from: (i) global circulation computer models; (ii) interpolated weather station data; or (iii) remotely sensed surface data from satellites. The present study's objective is to evaluate capacity of GWDs to simulate crop yield potential (Yp) or water-limited yield potential (Yw), which can serve as benchmarks to assess impact of climate change scenarios on crop productivity and land use change. Three GWDs (CRU, NCEP/DOE, and NASA POWER data) were evaluated for their ability to simulate Yp and Yw of rice in China, USA maize, and wheat in Germany. Simulations of Yp and Yw based on recorded daily data from well-maintained weather stations were taken as the control weather data (CWD). Agreement between simulations of Yp or Yw based on CWD and those based on GWD was poor with the latter having strong bias and large root mean square errors (RMSEs) that were 26–72% of absolute mean yield across locations and years. In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12–19% of the absolute mean). We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain. An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method. PMID:23801639
Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields.

PubMed

van Wart, Justin; Grassini, Patricio; Cassman, Kenneth G

2013-12-01

Crop simulation models can be used to estimate impact of current and future climates on crop yields and food security, but require long-term historical daily weather data to obtain robust simulations. In many regions where crops are grown, daily weather data are not available. Alternatively, gridded weather databases (GWD) with complete terrestrial coverage are available, typically derived from: (i) global circulation computer models; (ii) interpolated weather station data; or (iii) remotely sensed surface data from satellites. The present study's objective is to evaluate capacity of GWDs to simulate crop yield potential (Yp) or water-limited yield potential (Yw), which can serve as benchmarks to assess impact of climate change scenarios on crop productivity and land use change. Three GWDs (CRU, NCEP/DOE, and NASA POWER data) were evaluated for their ability to simulate Yp and Yw of rice in China, USA maize, and wheat in Germany. Simulations of Yp and Yw based on recorded daily data from well-maintained weather stations were taken as the control weather data (CWD). Agreement between simulations of Yp or Yw based on CWD and those based on GWD was poor with the latter having strong bias and large root mean square errors (RMSEs) that were 26-72% of absolute mean yield across locations and years. In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12-19% of the absolute mean). We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain. An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Unpuzzling American Climate: New World Experience and the Foundations of a New Science.

PubMed

White, Sam

2015-09-01

In the early exploration and colonization of the Americas, Europeans encountered unfamiliar climates that challenged received ideas from classical geography. This experience drove innovative efforts to understand and explain patterns of weather and seasons in the New World. A close examination of three climatic puzzles (the habitability of the tropics, debates on the likelihood of a Northwest Passage, and the unexpectedly harsh weather in the first North American colonies) illustrates how sixteenth- and seventeenth-century observers made three intellectual breakthroughs: conceiving of climates as a distinct subject of inquiry, crossing the hitherto-separated disciplines of geography and meteorology, and developing new theories regarding the influence of prevailing winds on patterns of weather and seasons. While unquantified and unsystematic, these novel approaches promoted a new understanding of climates critical to the emergence of climate science. This study offers new insights into the foundations of climatology and the role of the New World in early modern science.
Climate Analytics as a Service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; McInerney, Mark A.; Webster, W. Phillip; Lee, Tsengdar J.

2014-01-01

Climate science is a big data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the big data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). CAaaS combines high-performance computing and data-proximal analytics with scalable data management, cloud computing virtualization, the notion of adaptive analytics, and a domain-harmonized API to improve the accessibility and usability of large collections of climate data. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) provides an example of CAaaS. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of key climate variables. The effectiveness of MERRA/AS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, CAaaS is providing the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing data management and data analysis needs.
Mammoth ecosystem: Climatic areal, animal's density and cause of extinctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimov, S.; Zimov, N.; Zimova, G.; Chapin, S. F.

2008-12-01

During the last glaciations Mammoth Ecosystem (ME) occupied territory from present-day France to Canada and from the Arctic islands to China. This ecosystem played major role in global carbon cycle and human settling around the planet. Causes of extinction of this ecosystem are debatable. Analyses of hundreds of radiocarbon dates of ME animal fossil remains showed that warming and moistening of climate wasn't accompanied by animal extinction. On the opposite, on the north right after the warming rise of herbivore population was observed. Reconstruction of ME climatic areal showed that its climatic optimum lies within range of annual precipitation of 200-350 mm and average summer temperatures of +8-+12oC which corresponds with modern climate of Northern Siberia. Analyses of bones and skeletons concentrations in permafrost of Northern Siberia showed that animal density in ME was similar to African savannah. That was a high productive ecosystem that could sustain in wide variety of climates because numerous herbivores maintained there pastures themselves.
Pairing Quaternary paleoecology and modern ROV exploration to produce novel reconstructions of marine ecosystem responses to millennial-scale climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhre, S. E.; Pak, D. K.; Borreggine, M. J.; Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J.; Nicholson, C.; Deutsch, C. A.

2017-12-01

One of the most interesting problems for 21st Century marine ecology is understanding the potential physical, chemical, and biological scale of future climate-forced oceanographic changes. These fundamental questions can be informed through the examination of micro- and macrofauna from Quaternary sedimentary sequences, combined with modern observations of continental margin ecosystems. Here we examine Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) exploratory videos and sedimentary push cores, to identify biological assemblages, including mollusc, echinoderm, ostracod, and foraminifera density, diversity, and community structure from Santa Barbara Basin in the California Borderland. ROV explorations, from 380-500 meters below sea level (mbsl), describe the zonation of benthic fauna and the distribution of chemosynthetic trophic webs, which are consequences of gradations in the oxygen minimum zone and the ventilating sill depth (475 mbsl). Such observations reveal the modern vertical distribution of chemosynthetic bacterial communities and shallower, diverse communities associated with detrital food webs. Biological assemblages from 16.1-3.4 ka (from core MV0811-15JC, collected at 418 mbsl) produce a suite of paleoceanographic indicators, such as dissolved oxygen concentrations (foraminifera), chemosynthetic trophic webs (molluscs), and water masses (ostracods). These assemblages demonstrate how continental margin ecosystems reorganize vertically (through the water column) and geographically through climate events, for example through the loss of cryophilic species, the ephemeral occurrence of chemosynthetic communities, and the trace fossil evidence (through predation scarring on mollusc shells) of higher trophic web interactions. Together with ROV seafloor observations, these communities can reconstruct step-by-step vertical changes in the zonation of the continental margin, and can identify intervals of zonation change in relation to both Santa Barbara Basin ventilation and the regional California Borderland oxygen minimum zone.

A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric

2015-04-01

n this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, under the umbrella of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., relocations and changes in instrumentation, instrument height or data collection and manipulation procedures. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of trends and variability. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. .The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. In the ISTI Parallel Observations Science Team (POST), we will gather parallel data in their native format (to avoid undetectable conversion errors we will convert it to a standard format ourselves). We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be insolation, wind and clouds cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and temperature are potentially important. Metadata that describe the parallel measurements is as important as the data itself and will be collected as well. For example, the types of the instruments, their siting, height, maintenance, etc. Because they are widely used to study moderate extremes, we will compute the indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case the daily data cannot be shared, we would appreciate these indices from parallel measurements. For more information: http://tinyurl.com/ISTI-Parallel
Assessing impacts of climate change on species range shifts and extirpation on the local scale through Late Pleistocene fossils of Sequoia sempervirens in the Los Angeles Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, J.; MacDonald, G. M.

2017-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more apparent, increased importance must be placed on species' response to changing environments for ecosystem management and threat mitigation. While many studies have focused on the response of ecosystem types, few venture to the species level, as true limiting factors of species can be difficult to discern. Paleoproxies provide a valuable resource for predicting responses to future change through observation of similar responses in the past. This study uses plant paleorecords of Sequoia sempervirens to more closely examine the relationship of local climate change and species response in the Los Angeles Basin during the Late Pleistocene. The modern distribution of S. sempervirens has a southern extent, today, reaching the south end of Monterey County, California. Fossilized material from the La Brea Tar Pits extends that range to the farthest known point south, 200 miles from the southernmost modern stands, and has previously not been dated. A coupled analysis of 8 S. sempervirens specimens preserved in asphalt using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) dates paired with δC13 values will help to illuminate patterns of changing climate on a local scale, as well as provide valuable data on primary environmental factors in plant community change. Understanding the intricacies of species' range shifts and factors behind local extirpation on a local scale is necessary to interpret species response in the past as well as predicting response in the future.
A storage scheme for the real-time database supporting the on-line commitment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Hong-bin; Jing, Yu-jian; Wang, Hui

2013-07-01

The modern SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data acquisition) systems have been applied to various aspects of everyday life. As the time goes on, the requirements of the applications of the systems vary. Thus the data structure of the real-time database, which is the core of a SCADA system, often needs modification. As a result, the commitment consisting of a sequence of configuration operations modifying the data structure of the real-time database is performed from time to time. Though it is simple to perform the off-line commitment by first stopping and then restarting the system, during which all the data in the real-time database are reconstructed. It is much more preferred or in some cases even necessary to perform the on-line commitment, during which the real-time database can still provide real-time service and the system continues working normally. In this paper, a storage scheme of the data in the real-time database is proposed. It helps the real-time database support its on-line commitment, during which real-time service is still available.
The Study of Beach Bar Shape Changes on Modern Coast by the Effect of Wind and Waves in Poyang Lake, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, C.; Zhang, Y.; Jiang, Z.; Algeo, T. J.; Wang, M.; Lei, H.

2017-12-01

Poyang Lake formed along with the changing geological environment in the Quaternary as a continental faulted basin. Songmenshan Island lies within the lake and offers many examples of modern coastal deposits on its shore. There are plenty of typical modern coastal beach bar deposits and the plane shapes of beach bar are clearly visible at the Songmenshan Island shore in the center of the Poyang Lake. Modern coastal beach bar deposits are researched comprehensively in this article by geological surveying, research results of rhythm topography by Komar, wave model of littoral zone by Friedman and Sanders. The controlling factors of modern coastal beach bar sedimentary system and transformation relationships of different shapes beach bar are analyzed. The study shows that beach bar was divided into five microfacies based on the different shaped sand bodies of the modern coast. The waves, formed by the wind, are the main controlling factors of the modern coastal beach bar deposits based on the evidence of environment, climate and wind data in Poyang Lake. Among the 5 types of beach bar, 35 types of transformation relationship with different waves were identified. The modern coastal sedimentary model, which includes a beach bar influenced by waves and transformation relationships among the five kinds of beach bar, is representative of continental faulted lake basins.
Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

PubMed Central

Theobald, David M.; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B.; Albano, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. PMID:26641818
The Asian monsoon's role in atmospheric heat transport responses to orbital and millennial-scale climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGee, D.; Green, B.; Donohoe, A.; Marshall, J.

2015-12-01

Recent studies have provided a framework for understanding the zonal-mean position of the tropical rain belt by documenting relationships between rain belt latitude and atmospheric heat transport across the equator (Donohoe et al., 2013). Modern seasonal and interannual variability in globally-averaged rain belt position (often referred to as 'ITCZ position') reflects the interhemispheric heat balance, with the rain belt's displacement toward the warmer hemisphere directly proportional to atmospheric heat transport into the cooler hemisphere. Model simulations suggest that rain belt shifts are likely to have obeyed the same relationship with interhemispheric heat transport in response to past changes in orbital parameters, ice sheets, and ocean circulation. This relationship implies that even small (±1 degree) shifts in the mean rain belt require large changes in hemispheric heat budgets, placing tight bounds on mean rain belt shifts in past climates. This work has primarily viewed tropical circulation in two dimensions, as a pair of zonal-mean Hadley cells on either side of the rain belt that are displaced north and south by perturbations in hemispheric energy budgets, causing the atmosphere to transport heat into the cooler hemisphere. Here we attempt to move beyond this zonal-mean perspective, motivated by arguments that the Asian monsoon system, rather than the zonal-mean circulation, plays the dominant role in annual-mean heat transport into the southern hemisphere in the modern climate (Heaviside and Czaja, 2012; Marshall et al., 2014). We explore a range of climate change experiments, including simulations of North Atlantic cooling and mid-Holocene climate, to test whether changes in interhemispheric atmospheric heat transport are primarily driven by the mean Hadley circulation, the Asian monsoon system, or other regional-scale atmospheric circulation changes. The scalings that this work identifies between Asian monsoon changes and atmospheric heat transport help to provide quantitative insights into Asian monsoon variability in past climates. References cited: Donohoe, A. et al., (2013) Journal of Climate 26, 3597-3618. Heaviside, C. and Czaja, A. (2012) Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc. 139, 2181-2189. Marshall, J. et al., (2014) Climate Dynamics 42, 1967-1979.
Abrupt hydroclimate disruption across the Australian arid zone 50 ka coincident with human colonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, G. H.; Fogel, M. L.; Magee, J. W.; Gagan, M. K.

2016-12-01

Although many studies focus on how climate change impacted ancient societies, in Australia a growing body of evidence indicates that activities of the earliest human colonizers in turn altered the Australian climate. We utilize the stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen preserved in near-continuous 100 ka time series of avian eggshell from five regions across the Australian arid zone to reconstruct ecosystem status (d13C) and effective moisture (d18O). Training sets of sub-modern samples provide the basis for the reconstructions. Together, d13C and d18O provide independent estimates of ecosystem status and climate over the past 100 ka from the same dated sample, reducing correlation uncertainties between proxies. Changes in eggshell d13C document a dramatic reduction of palatable summer-wet C4 grasses in all regions between 50 and 45 ka, that has persisted through to modern times. Continuous 100 ka records of effective moisture derived from eggshell d18O show moist conditions from 100 to 60 ka, with variable drying after 60 ka, but the strong shift toward greatest aridity is coincident with the onset of the last glacial maximum 30 ka ago, 15 ka after the observed ecosystem restructuring. Combining the d13C and d18O time-series shows that an abrupt and permanent restructuring of the moisture/ecosystem balance occurred between 50 and 45 ka. Additional studies show that most large monsoon-fed inland arid-zone lakes carried permanent water at least intermittently between 120 and 50 ka, but never experienced permanent deep-water status after 45 ka, despite a wide range of global climate states, including the early Holocene when most other monsoon systems were reinvigorated. The lack of exceptional climate shifts either locally or globally between 60 and 40 ka eliminates climate as the cause of the ecosystem restructuring and persistent lake desiccation. Collectively these data suggest the wave of human colonization across Australia in altered land surface characteristics in a way that reduced the efficiency of the climate system to deliver monsoon moisture to the continental interior. This explanation will now be tested with climate modeling.
Climate Variability and the Occurrence of Human Puumala Hantavirus Infections in Europe: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Roda Gracia, J; Schumann, B; Seidler, A

2015-09-01

Hantaviruses are distributed worldwide and are transmitted by rodents. In Europe, the infection usually manifests as a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) known as nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is triggered by the virus species Puumala. Its host is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In the context of climate change, interest in the role of climatic factors for the disease has increased. A systematic review was conducted to investigate the association between climate variability and the occurrence of human Puumala hantavirus infections in Europe. We performed a literature search in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated Puumala virus infection and climatic factors in any European country with a minimum collection period of 2 years were included. The selection of abstracts and the evaluation of included studies were performed by two independent reviewers. A total of 434 titles were identified in the databases, of which nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies were conducted in central Europe (Belgium, France and Germany), while only two came from the north (Sweden) and one from the south (Bosnia). Strong evidence was found for a positive association between temperature and NE incidence in central Europe, while the evidence for northern Europe so far appears insufficient. Results regarding precipitation were contradictory. Overall, the complex relationships between climate and hantavirus infections need further exploration to identify specific health risks and initiate appropriate intervention measures in the context of climate change. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Anthropogenic albedo changes and the earth's climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sagan, C.; Toole, O.B.; Pollack, J.B.

1979-12-21

Investigators have long discounted the possibility that anthropogenic environmental changes not involving sophisticated modern technology could significantly influence climate. However, physical models suggest a causal connection between several such changes and significant climatic variation experienced in many regions of the world. In the Rajasthan Desert, parts of the Sahara, and Lebanon, overgrazing and lack of vegetation have led to desertification of once-fertile areas. The deforestation of parts of Brazil, Indonesia, and African equatorial forests by residents of those areas, and the extensive North American and European deforestation that occurred during the Little Ice Age demonstrate the relationship between temperate deforestationmore » and macroclimatic change. (32 references, 2 tables)« less
Diet and environment of a mid-Pliocene fauna in the Zanda Basin (western Himalaya): Paleo-elevation implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Xu, Y.; Khawaja, S. N.; Wang, X.; Passey, B. H.; Zhang, C.; Li, Q.; Tseng, Z. J.; Takeuchi, G.; Deng, T.; Xie, G.

2011-12-01

A mid-Pliocene fauna (3.1-4.0 Ma) was recently discovered in the Zanda Basin in western Himalaya, at an elevation of about 4200 m above sea level. These fossil materials provide a unique window for examining the linkage among tectonic, climatic and biotic changes. Here we report the initial results from isotopic analyses of this fauna and of modern herbivores in the Zanda Basin. The δ13C values of enamel samples from modern wild Tibetan ass, horse, cow and goat from the Zanda Basin are -9.1±2.1%, which indicate a diet comprising predominantly of C3 plants and are consistent with the current dominance of C3 vegetation in the area. The enamel-δ13C values of the fossil horse, rhino, deer, and bovid are -9.6±0.8%, indicating that these ancient mammals, like modern herbivores in the area, fed primarily on C3 vegetation and lived in an environment dominated by C3 plants. The enamel-δ18O values of mid-Pliocene obligate drinkers (i.e., horse and rhino) are lower than those of their modern counterpart, most likely indicating a shift in climate to much drier conditions after ~3-4 Ma. Preliminary paleo-temperature estimates derived from a fossil-based temperature proxy as well as the "clumped isotope" thermometer for the mid-Pliocene Zanda Basin, although somewhat equivocal, are close to the present-day mean annual temperature in the area, suggesting that the paleo-elevation of the Zanda Basin in the mid-Pliocene was similar to its present-day elevation.
The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European contribution to ESGF and contributes to the ESGF open source effort, notably through the development of search, monitoring, quality control, and metadata services. In its second phase, IS-ENES2 supports the implementation of regional climate model results from the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). These services were extended within the European FP7 Climate Information Portal for Copernicus (CLIPC) project, and some could be later integrated into the European Copernicus platform.
Pleistocene climate and biome evolution modulated at orbital, millennial, and centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooghiemstra, H.

2013-05-01

For the northern Andes we present a multi-proxy record of environmental and climatic change at millennial- to century-scale resolution of the full Pleistocene. The composite record includes the 540-m Funza core (2250-27 ka; 1050-yr resolution) from the Bogotá basin (~4°N, 2550 m asl, 2100 samples), the 58-mcd core (284-27 ka; 60-yr resolution) from the Fúquene basin (~5°N, 2540 m asl 4700 samples), and the 12-m core (last 14 ka; 25-yr resolution) from the La Cocha basin (1°N, 2780 m asl, 550 samples). At high elevations climatic variability is mainly driven by the 41-kyr component of orbital forcing changing into a dominant 100-kyr frequency during the last 0.9 Ma. High elevation intraAndean environments are mainly driven by temperature and atmospheric pCO2 while changes in moisture is an important driver of the Andean environments on the Amazonian flank. The Pleistocene is reflected by MIS 87 to 1, the last interglacial-glacial cycle by D/O-cycles 28 to 1 (and during MIS 7-6 another 15 D/O-style cycles), and the Holocene shows many events with an acceleration of climate change. Repeatedly the subpáramo shrub biome is temporarily lost suggesting vertical migration of forest exceeded the maximum migration capacity of the subpáramo biome. Continuous changes in altitidinal vegetation distribution caused mountains above ~1500 m were alternatingly covered by different biomes. Forests reached only ~125 ka modern species compositions indicating most of the Pleistocene record shows nonanalog vegetation associations, however not preventing modern ecological ranges can be applied to reconstruct past environments. Comparison with Greenland, Antarctic and marine climate records is demonstrated.
Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate: PMP UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom andmore » modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.« less
Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Low, N.C.

1995-09-01

Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity andmore » the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.« less
Web Based Data Access to the World Data Center for Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toussaint, F.; Lautenschlager, M.

2006-12-01

The World Data Center for Climate (WDC-Climate, www.wdc-climate.de) is hosted by the Model &Data Group (M&D) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The M&D department is financed by the German government and uses the computers and mass storage facilities of the German Climate Computing Centre (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, DKRZ). The WDC-Climate provides web access to 200 Terabytes of climate data; the total mass storage archive contains nearly 4 Petabytes. Although the majority of the datasets concern model output data, some satellite and observational data are accessible as well. The underlying relational database is distributed on five servers. The CERA relational data model is used to integrate catalogue data and mass data. The flexibility of the model allows to store and access very different types of data and metadata. The CERA metadata catalogue provides easy access to the content of the CERA database as well as to other data in the web. Visit ceramodel.wdc-climate.de for additional information on the CERA data model. The majority of the users access data via the CERA metadata catalogue, which is open without registration. However, prior to retrieving data user are required to check in and apply for a userid and password. The CERA metadata catalogue is servlet based. So it is accessible worldwide through any web browser at cera.wdc-climate.de. In addition to data and metadata access by the web catalogue, WDC-Climate offers a number of other forms of web based data access. All metadata are available via http request as xml files in various metadata formats (ISO, DC, etc., see wini.wdc-climate.de) which allows for easy data interchange with other catalogues. Model data can be retrieved in GRIB, ASCII, NetCDF, and binary (IEEE) format. WDC-Climate serves as data centre for various projects. Since xml files are accessible by http, the integration of data into applications of different projects is very easy. Projects supported by WDC-Climate are e.g. CEOP, IPCC, and CARIBIC. A script tool for data download (jblob) is offered on the web page, to make retrieval of huge data quantities more comfortable.
Late Holocene climate and environmental change from Asiul cave speleothems: interpretations in light of modern cave monitoring.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Andrew; Wynn, Peter; Barker, Philip; Leng, Melanie; Noble, Steve; Tych, Wlodek

2017-04-01

Northern Iberia offers an excellent location to study fluctuations in North Atlantic Ocean (NA) conditions and the impact that changes in the NA have on atmospheric systems, which dominate Europe's climate. Two speleothems from Cueva de Asiul (Matienzo, N. Spain) have been used to reconstruct rainfall variability in N. Spain throughout the Holocene (Smith et al., 2016a). The carbonate δ18O records from these speleothems are interpreted in the light of a rigorous modern cave monitoring program undertaken at Cueva de Asiul (Smith et al., 2016b). Drip water δ18O reflects a modern rainfall amount effect whilst δ13C appears influenced by Prior Calcite Precipitation (PCP) in the short term and changes in vegetation at long timescales. The speleothem δ18O shows that long duration ( 1500 year) cycles in wetting and drying are prevalent in N. Spain during the Holocene and that dry climate phases are related to the timing of cold events (Bond et al., 2001) in the NA. Here we look in more detail at one of these speleothems, assessing both δ18O and δ13C during the last two thousand years. We show that Cueva de Asiul speleothems not only preserve long duration climate cycles in δ18O, but that they also appear influenced by shorter duration changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in-sync with other NAO archives (Olsen et al., 2012). However, the Cueva de Asiul record does not appear to preserve a predominately positive NAO signal during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as is common within many European archives (Trouet et al., 2009), possibly due to the sites' close proximity to the NA and localised oceanic weather systems (Moreno et al., 2012). Alongside climatic changes, the speleothem δ13C shows a clear transition toward higher isotope values around 360 years BP (BP=1950), signalling a major environmental change in the region possibly due to anthropogenic removal of vast swathes of natural forest to support ship building and industry related to the Spanish Armada. Bond et al., (2001), Science 294, 2130-2136. Moreno et al., (2012), Quat. Sci. Rev. 43, 16-32. Olsen et al., (2012), Nat. Geosci. 5, 1-14. Smith et al., (2016a), Sci. Reports.6:24745. Smith et al., (2016b) Int. J. Speleol. 45, 1-9. Trouet et al., (2009), Science 324, 78-80.
Code modernization and modularization of APEX and SWAT watershed simulation models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and APEX (Agricultural Policy / Environmental eXtender) are respectively large and small watershed simulation models derived from EPIC Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), a field-scale agroecology simulation model. All three models are coded in FORTRAN an...
Towards an integrated set of surface meterological observations for climate science and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, Robert; Thorne, Peter

2017-04-01

We cannot predict what is not observed, and we cannot analyse what is not archived. To meet current scientific and societal demands, as well as future requirements for climate services, it is vital that the management and curation of land-based meteorological data holdings is improved. A comprehensive global set of data holdings, of known provenance, integrated across both climate variable and timescale are required to meet the wide range of user needs. Presently, the land-based holdings are highly fractured into global, region and national holdings for different variables and timescales, from a variety of sources, and in a mixture of formats. We present a high level overview, based on broad community input, of the steps that are required to bring about this integration and progress towards such a database. Any long-term, international, program creating such an integrated database will transform the our collective ability to provide societally relevant research, analysis and predictions across the globe.
3MdB: the Mexican Million Models database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morisset, C.; Delgado-Inglada, G.

2014-10-01

The 3MdB is an original effort to construct a large multipurpose database of photoionization models. This is a more modern version of a previous attempt based on Cloudy3D and IDL tools. It is accessed by MySQL requests. The models are obtained using the well known and widely used Cloudy photoionization code (Ferland et al, 2013). The database is aimed to host grids of models with different references to identify each project and to facilitate the extraction of the desired data. We present here a description of the way the database is managed and some of the projects that use 3MdB. Anybody can ask for a grid to be run and stored in 3MdB, to increase the visibility of the grid and the potential side applications of it.
Incorporating client-server database architecture and graphical user interface into outpatient medical records.

PubMed Central

Fiacco, P. A.; Rice, W. H.

1991-01-01

Computerized medical record systems require structured database architectures for information processing. However, the data must be able to be transferred across heterogeneous platform and software systems. Client-Server architecture allows for distributive processing of information among networked computers and provides the flexibility needed to link diverse systems together effectively. We have incorporated this client-server model with a graphical user interface into an outpatient medical record system, known as SuperChart, for the Department of Family Medicine at SUNY Health Science Center at Syracuse. SuperChart was developed using SuperCard and Oracle SuperCard uses modern object-oriented programming to support a hypermedia environment. Oracle is a powerful relational database management system that incorporates a client-server architecture. This provides both a distributed database and distributed processing which improves performance. PMID:1807732

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