A Sociotechnical Framework for Governing Climate Engineering
2015-01-01
Proposed ways of governing climate engineering have most often been supported by narrowly framed and unreflexive appraisals and processes. This article explores the governance implications of a Deliberative Mapping project that, unlike other governance principles, have emerged from an extensive process of reflection and reflexivity. In turn, the project has made significant advances in addressing the current deficit of responsibly defined criteria for shaping governance propositions. Three such propositions argue that (1) reflexive foresight of the imagined futures in which climate engineering proposals might reside is required; (2) the performance and acceptance of climate engineering proposals should be decided in terms of robustness, not optimality; and (3) climate engineering proposals should be satisfactorily opened up before they can be considered legitimate objects of governance. Taken together, these propositions offer a sociotechnical framework not simply for governing climate engineering but for governing responses to climate change at large. PMID:26973363
Climate Change and Professional Responsibility: A Declaration of Helsinki for Engineers.
Lawlor, Rob; Morley, Helen
2017-10-01
In this paper, we argue that the professional engineering institutions ought to develop a Declaration of Climate Action. Climate change is a serious global problem, and the majority of greenhouse gas emissions come from industries that are enabled by engineers and represented by the engineering professional institutions. If the professional institutions take seriously the claim that a profession should be self-regulating, with codes of ethics that go beyond mere obedience to the law, and if they take their own ethical codes seriously, recognising their responsibility to the public and to future generations (and also recognising a duty of "responsible leadership"), the professional institutions ought to develop a declaration for engineers, addressing climate change. Our argument here is largely inspired by the history of the Declaration of Helsinki. The Declaration of Helsinki was created by the medical profession for the profession, and it held physicians to a higher standard of ethical conduct than was found in the legal framework of individual countries. Although it was not originally a legal document, the influence of the Declaration can be seen in the fact that it is now enshrined in law in a number of different countries. Thus, we argue that the engineering profession could, and should, play a significant role in the abatement of climate change by making changes within the profession. If the engineering profession sets strict standards for professional engineers, with sanctions for those who refuse to comply, this could have a significant impact in relation to our efforts to develop a coordinated response to climate change.
Tropical rainforest response to marine sky brightening climate engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill
2015-04-01
Tropical forests represent a major atmospheric carbon dioxide sink. Here the gross primary productivity (GPP) response of tropical rainforests to climate engineering via marine sky brightening under a future scenario is investigated in three Earth system models. The model response is diverse, and in two of the three models, the tropical GPP shows a decrease from the marine sky brightening climate engineering. Partial correlation analysis indicates precipitation to be important in one of those models, while precipitation and temperature are limiting factors in the other. One model experiences a reversal of its Amazon dieback under marine sky brightening. There, the strongest partial correlation of GPP is to temperature and incoming solar radiation at the surface. Carbon fertilization provides a higher future tropical rainforest GPP overall, both with and without climate engineering. Salt damage to plants and soils could be an important aspect of marine sky brightening.
Undergraduate Students As Effective Climate Change Communicators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.
2014-12-01
The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. The program is in its third year. More than 75 students participated in a guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Three Colleges were involved in the program: Engineering, Education, and Science.
Undergraduate Students as Climate Communicators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.
2012-12-01
The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) are partnering with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students will have the opportunity to participate in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. An integral part of the learning process will include training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of a webcast about investigating aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.
Climate Change Communicators: The C3E3 Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.
2013-12-01
The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. More than 60 students participated in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.
US Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center Environmental Program on Climate Change
2008-09-01
of environmental issues related to climate change . There is a growing recognition that the Navy will need to perform its national security mission in... climate change -related technology work at the Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center (NAVFAC ESC) in Port Hueneme, California. NAVFAC ESC...categorized technologies that can be applied to climate change as mitigation, adaptation, and intervention. An essential element of the Navy’s response to
A quantitative evaluation of the public response to climate engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, Malcolm J.; Teagle, Damon A. H.; Feetham, Pamela M.
2014-02-01
Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, with CO2 passing 400 parts per million in May 2013. To avoid severe climate change and the attendant economic and social dislocation, existing energy efficiency and emissions control initiatives may need support from some form of climate engineering. As climate engineering will be controversial, there is a pressing need to inform the public and understand their concerns before policy decisions are taken. So far, engagement has been exploratory, small-scale or technique-specific. We depart from past research to draw on the associative methods used by corporations to evaluate brands. A systematic, quantitative and comparative approach for evaluating public reaction to climate engineering is developed. Its application reveals that the overall public evaluation of climate engineering is negative. Where there are positive associations they favour carbon dioxide removal (CDR) over solar radiation management (SRM) techniques. Therefore, as SRM techniques become more widely known they are more likely to elicit negative reactions. Two climate engineering techniques, enhanced weathering and cloud brightening, have indistinct concept images and so are less likely to draw public attention than other CDR or SRM techniques.
Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.
Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell
2008-11-13
We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Karam, D. Bou; Boucher, O.; Jones, A.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Niemeier, U.; Schulz, M.; Aaheim, A.; Benduhn, F.; Lawrence, M.; Timmreck, C.
2012-06-01
In this study we compare the response of four state-of-the-art Earth system models to climate engineering under scenario G1 of two model intercomparison projects: GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and IMPLICC (EU project "Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change"). In G1, the radiative forcing from an instantaneous quadrupling of the CO2 concentration, starting from the preindustrial level, is balanced by a reduction of the solar constant. Model responses to the two counteracting forcings in G1 are compared to the preindustrial climate in terms of global means and regional patterns and their robustness. While the global mean surface air temperature in G1 remains almost unchanged compared to the control simulation, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced in all models. Another robust response is the global reduction of precipitation with strong effects in particular over North and South America and northern Eurasia. In comparison to the climate response to a quadrupling of CO2 alone, the temperature responses are small in experiment G1. Precipitation responses are, however, in many regions of comparable magnitude but globally of opposite sign.
Activist engineering: changing engineering practice by deploying praxis.
Karwat, Darshan M A; Eagle, Walter E; Wooldridge, Margaret S; Princen, Thomas E
2015-02-01
In this paper, we reflect on current notions of engineering practice by examining some of the motives for engineered solutions to the problem of climate change. We draw on fields such as science and technology studies, the philosophy of technology, and environmental ethics to highlight how dominant notions of apoliticism and ahistoricity are ingrained in contemporary engineering practice. We argue that a solely technological response to climate change does not question the social, political, and cultural tenet of infinite material growth, one of the root causes of climate change. In response to the contemporary engineering practice, we define an activist engineer as someone who not only can provide specific engineered solutions, but who also steps back from their work and tackles the question, What is the real problem and does this problem "require" an engineering intervention? Solving complex problems like climate change requires radical cultural change, and a significant obstacle is educating engineers about how to conceive of and create "authentic alternatives," that is, solutions that differ from the paradigm of "technologically improving" our way out of problems. As a means to realize radically new solutions, we investigate how engineers might (re)deploy the concept of praxis, which raises awareness in engineers of the inherent politics of technological design. Praxis empowers engineers with a more comprehensive understanding of problems, and thus transforms technologies, when appropriate, into more socially just and ecologically sensitive interventions. Most importantly, praxis also raises a radical alternative rarely considered-not "engineering a solution." Activist engineering offers a contrasting method to contemporary engineering practice and leads toward social justice and ecological protection through problem solving by asking not, How will we technologize our way out of the problems we face? but instead, What really needs to be done?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosser, Sue V.; Zieseniss, Mireille
A survey of fiscal year 1997 POWRE (Professional Opportunities for Women in Research and Education) awardees from the National Science Foundation revealed that women engineers and scientists face similar issues, challenges, and opportunities and think that the laboratory climate has similar impacts on their careers. Separating responses of women scientists from those of women engineers revealed that 70% of both groups listed balancing work with family responsibilities as the most difficult issue. Discrepancies in percentages of women, coupled with differences among disciplinary and subdisciplinary cultures within science, engineering, mathematics, and technology fields, complicate work climates and their impact on women's careers. More frequently than women scientists, women engineers listed issues such as (a) low numbers of women leading to isolation, (b) lack of camaraderie and mentoring, (c) gaining credibility/respect from peers and administrators, (d) time management, (e) prioritizing responsibilities due to disproportionate demands, and (f) learning the rules of the game to survive in a male-dominated environment. Women engineers also listed two positive issues more frequently than women scientists: active recruitment/more opportunities for women and impact of successful women in the profession. The small number of women engineers may explain these results and suggests that it may be inappropriate to group them with other women scientists for analysis, programs, and policies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ranzi, Roberto; Kojiri, T.; Mynett, A.; Barontini, S.; van de Giesen, N.; Kolokytha, E.; Ngo, L. A.; Oreamuno, R.; Renard, B.; Sighomnou, D.; Vizina, A.
2010-05-01
IAHR, the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research launched a research Project called Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering (IAHR CCHE Project). It was motivated by the fact that, although it is now well accepted that, in the light of the recent IPCC reports the vast majority of members of the scientific community are convinced that the climate is changing or at least will experience a significant fluctuation already during the current century, it is perceived that some hydrologists, water experts and hydraulic engineers are not yet ready to incorporate climate change scenarios in their designs for such projects as: - flood protection and river training, - dam rehabilitation, - water resources management under water scarcity and changes in the hydrological regimes. The objective of the project is to encourage a close co-operation between the scientific and engineering communities in taking appropriate and timely action in response to the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and on water resource projects. The project aims at reporting on (a) the current state of knowledge as regards the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological regime in different regions of the world, where these regions are defined not just in geographic terms but also on the basis of their level of economic and water resources development; (b) the extent to which these impacts are recognized and taken into account by national water authorities, engineering organizations and other regulating bodies in setting their standard practices and procedures for the planning, design and operation of water works. These adaptation measures will include both "hard" responses, such as the construction or enlargement of engineering structures, and "soft" responses, such as changes in legislation or the operating rules of existing structures. An overview of the project and preliminary results extracted from of an Inventory of existing studies and projects considering observed and projected trends in the hydrological regimes of riverbasins and adaptation measures of the structural and non-structural type in Europe, Africa, America, Asia and Oceania and are presented.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Karam, D. Bou; Boucher, O.; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Niemeier, U.; Schulz, M.; Aaheim, A.; Benduhn, F.; Lawrence, M.; Timmreck, C.
2012-01-01
In this study we compare the response of four state-of-the-art Earth system models to climate engineering under scenario G1 of the GeoMIP and IMPLICC model intercomparison projects. In G1, the radiative forcing from an instantaneous quadrupling of the CO2 concentration, starting from the preindustrial level, is balanced by a reduction of the solar constant. Model responses to the two counteracting forcings in G1 are compared to the preindustrial climate in terms of global means and regional patterns and their robustness. While the global mean surface air temperature in G1 remains almost unchanged, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced in all models compared to the control simulation. Another robust response is the global reduction of precipitation with strong effects in particular over North and South America and northern Eurasia. It is shown that this reduction is only partly compensated by a reduction in evaporation so that large continental regions are drier in the engineered climate. In comparison to the climate response to a quadrupling of CO2 alone the temperature responses are small in experiment G1. Precipitation responses are, however, of comparable magnitude but in many regions of opposite sign.
2011-08-01
meteorological conditions. More specifically, climate chamber studies of the chemical protective kennel cover were conducted over a range of...responses to predict how long the dog could safely remain in the enclosure for various ambient environmental conditions. Climate chamber studies of...Engineering Center (NSRDEC) was tested in a climate - controlled chamber to quantify its insulation and vapor permeability properties. A schematic of
The futures of climate engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Low, Sean
2017-01-01
This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.
The Limits to Adaptation: A Systems Approach
The ability to adapt to climate change is delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages begin to overwhelm the adaptation response. Such thresholds depend upon physical properties (natural processes and engineering parameters), resource constraints (expressed th...
Curve number method response to historical climate variability and trends
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
With the dependence on the curve number (CN) model by the engineering community, the question arises as to whether changes in climate may affect the performance of the CN algorithm which impacts estimates of runoff. A study was conducted to determine the effects of “climate period” (period of unifor...
Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change
Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc Hero
2011-01-01
Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...
An economic evaluation of solar radiation management.
Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke
2015-11-01
Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Limits to Adaptation; A Systems Approach
The Limits to Adaptation: A Systems Approach. The ability to adapt to climate change is delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages begin to overwhelm the adaptation response. Such thresholds depend upon physical properties (natural processes and engineering...
1980-09-01
the past when these ties. zones were thought to have shifted in response In this study 21 maps (scale 1:6,000) of repre- to climatic changes . sentative...Alaska Grasses Roads Climate Permafrost Soil erosion Drainage Pipelines Vegetation Environmental engineering Restoration Erosion control Revegetation 20...of changes in the environment associated with the road, 3) documentation of flora and vegetation along the 577-km-long transect, 4) methodologies for
Malički, Mario; Katavić, Vedran; Marković, Domagoj; Marušić, Matko; Marušić, Ana
2017-10-25
We determined the prevailing ethical climate at three different schools of a single university, in order to explore possible differences in the ethical climate related to different research fields: the School of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture; the School of Humanities and Social Sciences; and the School of Medicine. We used the Ethical Climate Questionnaire to survey the staff (teachers and administration) at the three schools, and used the research integrity and organizational climate (RIOC) survey for early-stage researchers at the three schools. The dominant ethical climate type perceived collectively at the three university schools (response rate 49%, n = 294) was Laws and professional codes, which is associated with the cosmopolitan level of analysis and the ethical construct of principle. Individually, the same climate predominated at the schools for engineering and humanities, but the School of Medicine had the Self-interest ethical climate, which is associated with the individual level of analysis and the egoism ethical construct. In the RIOC survey (response rate 85%; n = 70), early-stage researchers from the three university schools did not differ in their perceptions of the organizational research integrity climate, or in their perceived individual, group or organizational pressures. Our study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to show differences in perceived ethical climate at a medical school compared to other schools at a university. Further studies are needed to explore the reasons for these differences and how they translate to organizational outcomes, such as job satisfaction, commitment to the institution and dysfunctional behaviour, including research misconduct.
Exploring Resilience of Canadian Rivers to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Creed, I. F.; Paltsev, A.; Accatino, F.; Aldred, D. A.; Guo, J.; Lehner, B.; Ouellet Dallaire, C. O.
2015-12-01
Climate change is leading to a hydrological intensification (i.e., wet areas and periods are becoming wetter; dry areas and periods are becoming drier). Impacts of climate change across Canada will vary, and Canadians would benefit from insights as to where these impacts will occur and what these impacts will be in order to be in a position to effectively respond to these changes. Resilience is a term that is often used - and occasionally misused. We make the distinction between engineering resilience and ecological resilience. Engineering resilience assumes that a system may exist in only one stable equilibrium state, and measures the system's resistance to change. In contrast, ecological resilience assumes that a system may exist in multiple equilibrium states and measures the magnitude of change a system can absorb before shifting from one equilibrium state to another. We adopt the concept of engineering resilience and explore the ability of riverscapes (rivers and their watersheds) to maintain or quickly return to an equilibrium state in response to changing climatic conditions. We use the Budyko curve to examine interactions of climate and water yield in riverscapes across Canada. The Budyko curve describes the relationship between a riverscape's potential evapotranspiration (PET) and its actual evapotranspiration (AET) both normalized by precipitation (P) - i.e., the curve describes AET/P as a function of PET/P. We define elasticity is a measure of a system's ability to maintain this relationship consistent with the Budyko curve as climate changes (ratio of range of PET/P to range of AET/P between different climate periods). We classify each riverscape as resilient (elasticity > 1) or non-resilient (elasticity ≤ 1) in response to climate change - exploring both past and future climate change scenarios. This Budyko approach enables us to characterize the resilience of riverscapes, predict their vulnerability to climate change, and propose management measures that will enable societies to adapt to climate change.
The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.
2014-12-01
Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rulifson, Gregory A.
Engineers impact the lives of every person every day, and need to have a strong sense of social responsibility. Understanding what students think about social responsibility in engineering and their futures is very important. Further, by identifying influences that change these ideas and shape their conceptualizations, we can intervene to help prepare students for their responsibilities as part of the profession in the future. This thesis presents the experiences, in their own words, of 34 students who started in engineering. The study is composed of three parts: (i) engineering students' ideas about socially responsible engineering and what influenced these ideas, (ii) how students see themselves as future socially responsible engineers and how this idea changes over their first three years of college, and (iii) what social responsibility-related reasons students who leave engineering have for choosing a new major. Results show that students are complicated and have varied paths through and out of engineering studies. Students came up with their own ideas about socially responsible engineering that converged over the years on legal and safety related aspects of the profession. Relatedly, students identified with the engineering profession through internships and engineering courses, and rarely described socially responsible aspirations that could be accomplished with engineering. More often, those students who desired to help the disadvantaged through their engineering work left engineering. Their choice to leave was a combination of an unsupportive climate, disinterest in their classes, and a desire to combine their personal and professional social responsibility ambitions. If we want engineering students to push the engineering profession forward to be more socially responsible, we can identify the effective influences and develop a curriculum that encourages critical thinking about the social context and impacts of engineering. Additionally, a social responsibility-related curriculum could provide more opportunities for engagement that keeps those socially-motivated students in engineering. The engineering profession must also reflect these values to keep the new engineers working towards social responsibility and pushing the profession forward.
Asilomar moments: formative framings in recombinant DNA and solar climate engineering research.
Schäfer, Stefan; Low, Sean
2014-12-28
We examine the claim that in governance for solar climate engineering research, and especially field tests, there is no need for external governance beyond existing mechanisms such as peer review and environmental impact assessments that aim to assess technically defined risks to the physical environment. By drawing on the historical debate on recombinant DNA research, we show that defining risks is not a technical question but a complex process of narrative formation. Governance emerges from within, and as a response to, narratives of what is at stake in a debate. In applying this finding to the case of climate engineering, we find that the emerging narrative differs starkly from the narrative that gave meaning to rDNA technology during its formative period, with important implications for governance. While the narrative of rDNA technology was closed down to narrowly focus on technical risks, that of climate engineering continues to open up and includes social, political and ethical issues. This suggests that, in order to be legitimate, governance must take into account this broad perception of what constitutes the relevant issues and risks of climate engineering, requiring governance that goes beyond existing mechanisms that focus on technical risks. Even small-scale field tests with negligible impacts on the physical environment warrant additional governance as they raise broader concerns that go beyond the immediate impacts of individual experiments. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Flood trends and river engineering on the Mississippi River system
Pinter, N.; Jemberie, A.A.; Remo, J.W.F.; Heine, R.A.; Ickes, B.S.
2008-01-01
Along >4000 km of the Mississippi River system, we document that climate, land-use change, and river engineering have contributed to statistically significant increases in flooding over the past 100-150 years. Trends were tested using a database of >8 million hydrological measurements. A geospatial database of historical engineering construction was used to quantify the response of flood levels to each unit of engineering infrastructure. Significant climate- and/or land use-driven increases in flow were detected, but the largest and most pervasive contributors to increased flooding on the Mississippi River system were wing dikes and related navigational structures, followed by progressive levee construction. In the area of the 2008 Upper Mississippi flood, for example, about 2 m of the flood crest is linked to navigational and flood-control engineering. Systemwide, large increases in flood levels were documented at locations and at times of wing-dike and levee construction. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
Coastal Adaptation: The Case of Ocean Beach, San Francisco
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cheong, S.
2012-12-01
Coastal erosion, storms, sea-level rise, and tsunamis all lead to inundation that puts people and communities at risk. Adapting to these coastal hazards has gained increasing attention with climate change. Instead of promoting one particular strategy such as seawalls or defending against one type of hazard, scholars and practitioners encourage a combination of existing methods and strategies to promote synergistic effects. The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on climate extremes reflects this trend in the integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. This paper focuses on the roles, compatibilities, and synergies of three coastal adaptation options - engineering, vegetation, and policy - in the case of Ocean Beach in San Francisco. Traditionally engineering approach and ecosystem conservation often have stood in opposition as hard shoreline structures destroy coastal habitats, worsen coastal erosion, divert ocean currents, and prevent the natural migration of shores. A natural migration of shores without structure translates into the abandonment of properties in the coastal zone, and is at odds with property rights and development. For example, policies of relocation, retreat, and insurance may not be popular given the concerns of infrastructure and coastal access. As such, engineering, natural defense, and policy can be more conflictual than complementary. Nonetheless, all these responses are used in combination in many locations. Complementarities and compatibilities, therefore, must be assessed when considering the necessity of engineering responses, natural defense capabilities, and policy options. In this light, the question is how to resolve the problem of mixed responses and short- and long-term interests and values, identify compatibilities, and generate synergies. In the case of Ocean Beach, recent erosions that endangered San Francisco's wastewater treatment system acted as major stimuli in coastal adaptation initiatives and resulted in the Ocean Beach Master Plan. Investigation into the planning processes involving multiple stakeholder engagement such as San Francisco (SF) Public Utilities Commission, California Coastal Commission, National Park Service, SF Department of Public Works, SF Recreation and Park Department, SF Planning Department, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers can shed light on trade-offs and synergies of different adaptation responses. The role of the coordinator - SF Planning and Urban Research Commission - as a mediator between different stakeholder interests and priorities, a realistic assessment of current hazard management practices specific to local contexts, and the necessity of combining hazard mitigation policies with coastal management and community management are the key findings of this research. They help inform policy formulation and decision-making in climate change adaptation, and provide a valuable case study that can be transferred to other locations.
Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.
2015-12-01
Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.
2016-12-01
The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.
Newell, Wayne L.; Stone, B.; Harrison, R.; ,
2004-01-01
Holocene alluvium of the Pedhicos River around Lefkosia (Nicosia), Cyprus, was studied. Alluvial stratigraphy was found to present serial flood deposits underlying river terraces and an extensive alluvial fan. It was found that the stratigraphy and geomorphology of the alluvium can be interpreted to distinguish not only the effects of climate change, but also land-use change, and the impact of particular engineering works. It was suggested that details of the physical properties of the flood deposit sequences and paleosols can contribute to modeling various geophysical and engineering properties and in predicting response to vertical acceleration during earthquakes.
Engaging the Global South on climate engineering research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winickoff, David E.; Flegal, Jane A.; Asrat, Asfawossen
2015-07-01
The Global South is relatively under-represented in public deliberations about solar radiation management (SRM), a controversial climate engineering concept. This Perspective analyses the outputs of a deliberative exercise about SRM, which took place at the University of California-Berkeley and involved 45 mid-career environmental leaders, 39 of whom were from the Global South. This analysis identifies and discusses four themes from the Berkeley workshop that might inform research and governance in this arena: (1) the 'moral hazard' problem should be reframed to emphasize 'moral responsibility'; (2) climate models of SRM deployment may not be credible as primary inputs to policy because they cannot sufficiently address local concerns such as access to water; (3) small outdoor experiments require some form of international public accountability; and (4) inclusion of actors from the Global South will strengthen both SRM research and governance.
A case study of teaching social responsibility to doctoral students in the climate sciences.
Børsen, Tom; Antia, Avan N; Glessmer, Mirjam Sophia
2013-12-01
The need to make young scientists aware of their social responsibilities is widely acknowledged, although the question of how to actually do it has so far gained limited attention. A 2-day workshop entitled "Prepared for social responsibility?" attended by doctoral students from multiple disciplines in climate science, was targeted at the perceived needs of the participants and employed a format that took them through three stages of ethics education: sensitization, information and empowerment. The workshop aimed at preparing doctoral students to manage ethical dilemmas that emerge when climate science meets the public sphere (e.g., to identify and balance legitimate perspectives on particular types of geo-engineering), and is an example of how to include social responsibility in doctoral education. The paper describes the workshop from the three different perspectives of the authors: the course teacher, the head of the graduate school, and a graduate student. The elements that contributed to the success of the workshop, and thus make it an example to follow, are (1) the involvement of participating students, (2) the introduction of external expertise and role models in climate science, and (3) a workshop design that focused on ethical analyses of examples from the climate sciences.
Data and Tools - Alphabetical Listing | NREL
Climate Action Planning Tool Community Solar Scenario Tool Comparative PV Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE Design Response Toolbox WEC-Sim: Wave Energy Converter Simulator West Associates Solar Monitoring Network Design and Engineering Model
A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate Engineering Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Belter, C. W.; Seidel, D. J.
2013-12-01
The past five years have seen a dramatic increase in the number of media and scientific publications on the topic of climate engineering, or geoengineering, and some scientists are increasingly calling for more research on climate engineering as a possible supplement to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this context, understanding the current state of climate engineering research can help inform policy discussions and guide future research directions. Bibliometric analysis - the quantitative analysis of publications - is particularly applicable to fields with large bodies of literature that are difficult to summarize by traditional review methods. The multidisciplinary nature of the published literature on climate engineering makes it an ideal candidate for bibliometric analysis. Publications on climate engineering are found to be relatively recent (more than half of all articles during 1988-2011 were published since 2008), include a higher than average percentage of non-research articles (30% compared with 8-15% in related scientific disciplines), and be predominately produced by countries located in the Northern Hemisphere and speaking English. The majority of this literature focuses on land-based methods of carbon sequestration, ocean iron fertilization, and solar radiation management and is produced with little collaboration among research groups. This study provides a summary of existing publications on climate engineering, a perspective on the scientific underpinnings of the global dialogue on climate engineering, and a baseline for quantitatively monitoring the development of climate engineering research in the future.
Ethical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research.
Morrow, David R
2014-12-28
Many commentators fear that climate engineering research might lead policy-makers to reduce mitigation efforts. Most of the literature on this so-called 'moral hazard' problem focuses on the prediction that climate engineering research would reduce mitigation efforts. This paper focuses on a related ethical question: Why would it be a bad thing if climate engineering research obstructed mitigation? If climate engineering promises to be effective enough, it might justify some reduction in mitigation. Climate policy portfolios involving sufficiently large or poorly planned reductions in mitigation, however, could lead to an outcome that would be worse than the portfolio that would be chosen in the absence of further climate engineering research. This paper applies three ethical perspectives to describe the kinds of portfolios that would be worse than that 'baseline portfolio'. The literature on climate engineering identifies various mechanisms that might cause policy-makers to choose these inferior portfolios, but it is difficult to know in advance whether the existence of these mechanisms means that climate engineering research really would lead to a worse outcome. In the light of that uncertainty, a precautionary approach suggests that researchers should take measures to reduce the risk of mitigation obstruction. Several such measures are suggested. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Functional Design of Breakwaters for Shore Protection: Empirical Methods
1990-09-01
prepred by the Principal Investigator of the work unit, Ms. Julie Dean Rosati, Hy1. aulic Engineer, EAU, CSEB. COL Larry B. Fulton, EN, was Commander and...transmissibility, wave climate , etc.), morphologica. beach response may be either a salient or tombolo. Reef breakwaters are a type of detached breakwaters... climate chosen for design (USAED, Buffalo 1975; Pope and Dean 1986), as waves from the northwest were inappropriately weighted. Pope and Dean (1986) 26
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bruyere, C. L.; Tye, M. R.; Holland, G. J.; Done, J.
2015-12-01
Graceful failure acknowledges that all systems will fail at some level and incorporates the potential for failure as a key component of engineering design, community planning, and the associated research and development. This is a fundamental component of the ECEP, an interdisciplinary partnership bringing together scientific, engineering, cultural, business and government expertise to develop robust, well-communicated predictions and advice on the impacts of weather and climate extremes in support of decision-making. A feature of the partnership is the manner in which basic and applied research and development is conducted in direct collaboration with the end user. A major ECEP focus is the Global Risk and Resilience Toolbox (GRRT) that is aimed at developing public-domain, risk-modeling and response data and planning system in support of engineering design, and community planning and adaptation activities. In this presentation I will outline the overall ECEP and GRIP activities, and expand on the 'graceful failure' concept. Specific examples for direct assessment and prediction of hurricane impacts and damage potential will be included.
Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.
Ashley, R M; Balmforth, D J; Saul, A J; Blanskby, J D
2005-01-01
Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keith, D. W.
2005-12-01
The post-war growth of the earth sciences has been fueled, in part, by a drive to quantify environmental insults in order to support arguments for their reduction, yet paradoxically the knowledge gained is grants us ever greater capability to deliberately engineer environmental processes on a planetary scale. Increased capability can arises though seemingly unconnected scientific advances. Improvements in numerical weather prediction such as the use of adjoint models in analysis/forecast systems, for example, means that weather modification can be accomplished with smaller control inputs. Purely technological constraints on our ability to engineer earth systems arise from our limited ability to measure and predict system responses and from limits on our ability to manage large engineering projects. Trends in all three constraints suggest a rapid growth in our ability to engineer the planet. What are the implications of our growing ability to geoengineer? Will we see a reemergence of proposals to engineer our way out of the climate problem? How can we avoid the moral hazard posed by the knowledge that geoengineering might provide a backstop to climate damages? I will speculate about these issues, and suggest some institutional factors that may provide a stronger constraint on the use of geoengineering than is provided by any purely technological limit.
Regional climate engineering by radiation management: Prerequisites and prospects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quaas, Johannes; Quaas, Martin F.; Boucher, Olivier; Rickels, Wilfried
2016-12-01
Radiation management (RM), as an option to engineer the climate, is highly controversial and suffers from a number of ethical and regulatory concerns, usually studied in the context of the objective to mitigate the global mean temperature. In this article, we discuss the idea that RM can be differentiated and scaled in several dimensions with potential objectives being to influence a certain climate parameter in a specific region. Some short-lived climate forcers (e.g., tropospheric aerosols) exhibit strong geographical and temporal variability, potentially leading to limited-area climate responses. Marine cloud brightening and thinning or dissolution of cirrus clouds could be operated at a rather local scale. It is therefore conceivable that such schemes could be applied with the objective to influence the climate at a regional scale. From a governance perspective, it is desirable to avoid any substantial climate effects of regional RM outside the target region. This, however, could prove impossible for a sustained, long-term RM. In turn, regional RM during limited time periods could prove more feasible without effects beyond the target area. It may be attractive as it potentially provides the opportunity to target the suppression of some extreme events such as heat waves. Research is needed on the traceability of regional RM, for example, using detection and attribution methods. Incentives and implications of regional RM need to be examined, and new governance options have to be conceived.
Borland, Anne M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.; ...
2014-12-15
We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. Onemore » approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Borland, Anne M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.
We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. Onemore » approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.« less
Permafrost Hazards and Linear Infrastructure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stanilovskaya, Julia; Sergeev, Dmitry
2014-05-01
The international experience of linear infrastructure planning, construction and exploitation in permafrost zone is being directly tied to the permafrost hazard assessment. That procedure should also consider the factors of climate impact and infrastructure protection. The current global climate change hotspots are currently polar and mountain areas. Temperature rise, precipitation and land ice conditions change, early springs occur more often. The big linear infrastructure objects cross the territories with different permafrost conditions which are sensitive to the changes in air temperature, hydrology, and snow accumulation which are connected to climatic dynamics. One of the most extensive linear structures built on permafrost worldwide are Trans Alaskan Pipeline (USA), Alaska Highway (Canada), Qinghai-Xizang Railway (China) and Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (Russia). Those are currently being influenced by the regional climate change and permafrost impact which may act differently from place to place. Thermokarst is deemed to be the most dangerous process for linear engineering structures. Its formation and development depend on the linear structure type: road or pipeline, elevated or buried one. Zonal climate and geocryological conditions are also of the determining importance here. All the projects are of the different age and some of them were implemented under different climatic conditions. The effects of permafrost thawing have been recorded every year since then. The exploration and transportation companies from different countries maintain the linear infrastructure from permafrost degradation in different ways. The highways in Alaska are in a good condition due to governmental expenses on annual reconstructions. The Chara-China Railroad in Russia is under non-standard condition due to intensive permafrost response. Standards for engineering and construction should be reviewed and updated to account for permafrost hazards caused by the climate change. Extra maintenance activity is needed for existence infrastructure to stay operable. Engineers should run climate models under the most pessimistic scenarios when planning new infrastructure projects. That would allow reducing the potential shortcomings related to the permafrost thawing.
Mapping the landscape of climate engineering
Oldham, P.; Szerszynski, B.; Stilgoe, J.; Brown, C.; Eacott, B.; Yuille, A.
2014-01-01
In the absence of a governance framework for climate engineering technologies such as solar radiation management (SRM), the practices of scientific research and intellectual property acquisition can de facto shape the development of the field. It is therefore important to make visible emerging patterns of research and patenting, which we suggest can effectively be done using bibliometric methods. We explore the challenges in defining the boundary of climate engineering, and set out the research strategy taken in this study. A dataset of 825 scientific publications on climate engineering between 1971 and 2013 was identified, including 193 on SRM; these are analysed in terms of trends, institutions, authors and funders. For our patent dataset, we identified 143 first filings directly or indirectly related to climate engineering technologies—of which 28 were related to SRM technologies—linked to 910 family members. We analyse the main patterns discerned in patent trends, applicants and inventors. We compare our own findings with those of an earlier bibliometric study of climate engineering, and show how our method is consistent with the need for transparency and repeatability, and the need to adjust the method as the field develops. We conclude that bibliometric monitoring techniques can play an important role in the anticipatory governance of climate engineering. PMID:25404683
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alterskjær, Kari; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Boucher, Olivier; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Timmreck, Claudia
2013-11-01
proposed mechanisms for counteracting global warming through solar radiation management is the deliberate injection of sea salt acting via marine cloud brightening and the direct effect of sea-salt aerosols. In this study, we show results from multidecadal simulations of such sea-salt climate engineering (SSCE) on top of the RCP4.5 emission scenario using three Earth system models. As in the proposed "G3" experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, SSCE is designed to keep the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing at the 2020 level for 50 years. SSCE is then turned off and the models run for another 20 years, enabling an investigation of the abrupt warming associated with a termination of climate engineering ("termination effect"). As in former idealized studies, the climate engineering in all three models leads to a significant suppression of evaporation from low-latitude oceans and reduced precipitation over low-latitude oceans as well as in the storm-track regions. Unlike those studies, however, we find in all models enhanced evaporation, cloud formation, and precipitation over low-latitude land regions. This is a response to the localized cooling over the low-latitude oceans imposed by the SSCE design. As a result, the models obtain reduced aridity in many low-latitude land regions as well as in southern Europe. Terminating the SSCE leads to a rapid near-surface temperature increase, which, in the Arctic, exceeds 2 K in all three models within 20 years after SSCE has ceased. In the same period September Arctic sea ice cover shrinks by over 25%.
Joint Knowledge Generation Between Climate Science and Infrastructure Engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stoner, A. M. K.; Hayhoe, K.; Jacobs, J. M.
2015-12-01
Over the past decade the engineering community has become increasingly aware of the need to incorporate climate projections into the planning and design of sensitive infrastructure. However, this is a task that is easier said than done. This presentation will discuss some of the successes and hurdles experiences through the past year, from a climate scientist's perspective, working with engineers in infrastructure research and applied engineering through the Infrastructure & Climate Network (ICNet). Engineers rely on strict building codes and ordinances, and can be the subject of lawsuits if those codes are not followed. Matters are further complicated by the uncertainty inherent to climate projections, which include short-term natural variability, as well as the influence of scientific uncertainty and even human behavior on the rate and magnitude of change. Climate scientists typically address uncertainty by creating projections based on multiple models following different future scenarios. This uncertainty is difficult to incorporate into engineering projects, however, due to the fact that they cannot build two different bridges, one allowing for a lower amount of change, and another for a higher. More often than not there is a considerable difference between the costs of building two such bridges, which means that available funds often are the deciding factor. Discussions of climate science are often well received with engineers who work in the research area of infrastructure; going a step further, however, and implementing it in applied engineering projects can be challenging. This presentation will discuss some of the challenges and opportunities inherent to collaborations between climate scientists and transportation engineers, drawing from a range of studies including truck weight restrictions on roads during the spring thaw, and bridge deck performance due to environmental forcings.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Powers, S. E.; DeWaters, J.; Dhaniyala, S.
2015-12-01
Engineers must take a leading role in addressing the challenges of mitigating climate change and adapting to the inevitable changes that our world is facing. Yet climate change classes targeting engineering students are scarce. Technical education must focus on the problem formulation and solutions that consider multiple, complex interactions between engineered systems and the Earth's climate system and recognize that transformation raises societal challenges, including trade-offs among benefits, costs, and risks. Moreover, improving engineering students' climate science literacy will require strategies that also inspire students' motivation to work toward their solution. A climate science course for engineers has been taught 5 semesters as part of a NASA Innovations in Climate Education program grant (NNXlOAB57A). The basic premise of this project was that effective instruction must incorporate scientifically-based knowledge and observations and foster critical thinking, problem solving, and decision-making skills. Lecture, in-class cooperative and computer-based learning and a semester project provide the basis for engaging students in evaluating effective mitigation and adaptation solutions. Policy and social issues are integrated throughout many of the units. The objective of this presentation is to highlight the content and pedagogical approach used in this class that helped to contribute to significant gains in engineering students' climate literacy and critical thinking competencies. A total of 89 students fully participated in a pre/post climate literacy questionnaire. As a whole, students demonstrated significant gains in climate-related content knowledge (p<0.001), affect (p<0.001), and behavior (p=0.002). Mean post scores were above a 'passing' cutoff (70%) for all three subscales. Assessment of semester project reports with a critical thinking rubric showed that the students did an excellent job of formulating problem statements and solutions in a manner that incorporated a multidimensional systems perspective. These skills are sometimes foreign to technically focused, number crunching engineering students, but are critical for using their engineering skills and profession to address climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samaras, C.; Cook, L.
2015-12-01
Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.
Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change
Pan, Yefeng; Li, Liming; Jiang, Xun; Li, Gan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Xinyue; Ingersoll, Andrew P.
2017-01-01
The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era. PMID:28117324
INTRODUCTION: Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2009-12-01
Geoengineering techniques for countering climate change have been receiving much press recently as a `Plan B' if a global deal to tackle climate change is not agreed at the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen this December. However, the field is controversial as the methods may have unforeseen consequences, potentially making temperatures rise in some regions or reducing rainfall, and many aspects remain under-researched. This focus issue of Environmental Research Letters is a collection of research articles, invited by David Keith, University of Calgary, and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, that present and evaluate different methods for engineering the Earth's climate. Not only do the letters in this issue highlight various methods of climate engineering but they also detail the arguments for and against climate engineering as a concept. Further reading Focus on Geoengineering at http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/subject/tag=geoengineering IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science is an open-access proceedings service available at www.iop.org/EJ/journal/ees Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System Contents Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming David L Mitchell and William Finnegan Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change Andrew Ross and H Damon Matthews Researching geoengineering: should not or could not? Martin Bunzl Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering H Damon Matthews and Sarah E Turner Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research David R Morrow, Robert E Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts Michael C MacCracken The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone P Heckendorn, D Weisenstein, S Fueglistaler, B P Luo, E Rozanov, M Schraner, L W Thomason and T Peter The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO2 world Peter J Irvine, Daniel J Lunt, Emma J Stone and Andy Ridgwell Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering Joy S Singarayer, Andy Ridgwell and Peter Irvine Can we control El Niño? Douglas G MacMynowski Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system Philip J Rasch, John Latham and Chih-Chieh (Jack) Chen
The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change
Corry, Olaf
2017-01-01
Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a ‘Plan B’ in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for ‘Plan A’, i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation. PMID:29386754
Collaboration pathway(s) using new tools for optimizing operational climate monitoring from space
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Helmuth, Douglas B.; Selva, Daniel; Dwyer, Morgan M.
2014-10-01
Consistently collecting the earth's climate signatures remains a priority for world governments and international scientific organizations. Architecting a solution requires transforming scientific missions into an optimized robust `operational' constellation that addresses the needs of decision makers, scientific investigators and global users for trusted data. The application of new tools offers pathways for global architecture collaboration. Recent (2014) rulebased decision engine modeling runs that targeted optimizing the intended NPOESS architecture, becomes a surrogate for global operational climate monitoring architecture(s). This rule-based systems tools provide valuable insight for Global climate architectures, through the comparison and evaluation of alternatives considered and the exhaustive range of trade space explored. A representative optimization of Global ECV's (essential climate variables) climate monitoring architecture(s) is explored and described in some detail with thoughts on appropriate rule-based valuations. The optimization tools(s) suggest and support global collaboration pathways and hopefully elicit responses from the audience and climate science shareholders.
Rhizosphere engineering: Enhancing sustainable plant ecosystem productivity
Ahkami, Amir H.; White, III, Richard Allen; Handakumbura, Pubudu P.; ...
2017-04-21
Here, the rhizosphere is arguably the most complex microbial habitat on earth, comprising an integrated network of plant roots, soil and a diverse microbial consortium of bacteria, archaea, viruses, and microeukaryotes. Understanding, predicting and controlling the structure and function of the rhizosphere will allow us to harness plant-microbe interactions and other rhizosphere activities as a means to increase or restore plant ecosystem productivity, improve plant responses to a wide range of environmental perturbations, and mitigate effects of climate change by designing ecosystems for long-term soil carbon storage. Here, we review critical knowledge gaps in rhizosphere science, and how mechanistic understandingmore » of rhizosphere interactions can be leveraged in rhizosphere engineering efforts with the goal of maintaining sustainable plant ecosystem services for food and bioenergy production in an ever changing global climate.« less
Rhizosphere engineering: Enhancing sustainable plant ecosystem productivity
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ahkami, Amir H.; White, III, Richard Allen; Handakumbura, Pubudu P.
Here, the rhizosphere is arguably the most complex microbial habitat on earth, comprising an integrated network of plant roots, soil and a diverse microbial consortium of bacteria, archaea, viruses, and microeukaryotes. Understanding, predicting and controlling the structure and function of the rhizosphere will allow us to harness plant-microbe interactions and other rhizosphere activities as a means to increase or restore plant ecosystem productivity, improve plant responses to a wide range of environmental perturbations, and mitigate effects of climate change by designing ecosystems for long-term soil carbon storage. Here, we review critical knowledge gaps in rhizosphere science, and how mechanistic understandingmore » of rhizosphere interactions can be leveraged in rhizosphere engineering efforts with the goal of maintaining sustainable plant ecosystem services for food and bioenergy production in an ever changing global climate.« less
Assessing the Climate Trade-Offs of Gasoline Direct Injection Engines.
Zimmerman, Naomi; Wang, Jonathan M; Jeong, Cheol-Heon; Wallace, James S; Evans, Greg J
2016-08-02
Compared to port fuel injection (PFI) engine exhaust, gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine exhaust has higher emissions of black carbon (BC), a climate-warming pollutant. However, the relative increase in BC emissions and climate trade-offs of replacing PFI vehicles with more fuel efficient GDI vehicles remain uncertain. In this study, BC emissions from GDI and PFI vehicles were compiled and BC emissions scenarios were developed to evaluate the climate impact of GDI vehicles using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP) metrics. From a 20 year time horizon GWP analysis, average fuel economy improvements ranging from 0.14 to 14% with GDI vehicles are required to offset BC-induced warming. For all but the lowest BC scenario, installing a gasoline particulate filter with an 80% BC removal efficiency and <1% fuel penalty is climate beneficial. From the GTP-based analysis, it was also determined that GDI vehicles are climate beneficial within <1-20 years; longer time horizons were associated with higher BC scenarios. The GDI BC emissions spanned 2 orders of magnitude and varied by ambient temperature, engine operation, and fuel composition. More work is needed to understand BC formation mechanisms in GDI engines to ensure that the climate impacts of this engine technology are minimal.
Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: an ESM sensitivity study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard; Seneviratne, Sonia
2014-05-01
Mitigation efforts to reduce anthropogenic climate forcing have thus far proven inadequate, as evident from accelerating greenhouse gas emissions. Many subtropical and mid-latitude regions are expected to experience longer and more frequent heat waves and droughts within the next century. This increased occurrence of weather extremes has important implications for human health, mortality and for socio-economic factors including forest fires, water availability and agricultural production. Various solar radiation management (SRM) schemes that attempt to homogeneously counter the anthropogenic forcing have been examined with different Earth System Models (ESM). Land climate engineering schemes have also been investigated which reduces the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed at the surface. However, few studies have investigated their effects on extremes but rather on mean climate response. Here we present the results of a series of climate engineering sensitivity experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.2 at 2°-resolution. This configuration entails 5 fully coupled model components responsible for simulating the Earth's atmosphere, land, land-ice, ocean and sea-ice that interact through a central coupler. Historical and RCP8.5 scenarios were performed with transient land-cover changes and prognostic terrestrial Carbon/Nitrogen cycles. Four sets of experiments are performed in which surface albedo over snow-free vegetated grid points is increased by 0.5, 0.10, 0.15 and 0.20. The simulations show a strong preferential cooling of hot extremes throughout the Northern mid-latitudes during boreal summer. A strong linear scaling between the cooling of extremes and additional surface albedo applied to the land model is observed. The strongest preferential cooling is found in southeastern Europe and the central United States, where increases of soil moisture and evaporative fraction are the largest relative to the control simulation. This preferential cooling is found to intensify in the future scenario. Cloud cover strongly limits the efficacy of a given surface albedo increase to reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. As anthropogenic forcing increases, cloud cover decreases over much of the northern mid-latitudes in CESM.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hunter, Jane
Tenured and tenure-track faculty members at institutions of higher education, especially those at Research I institutions, are being asked to do more than ever before. With rapidly changing technology, significant decreases in public funding, the shift toward privately funded research, and the ever increasing expectations of students for an education that adequately prepares them for professional careers, engineering faculty are particularly challenged by the escalating demands on their time. In 1996, the primary accreditation organization for engineering programs (ABET) adopted new criteria that required, among other things, engineering programs to teach students to function on multidisciplinary teams and to communicate effectively. In response, most engineering programs utilize project teams as a strategy for teaching these skills. The purpose of this qualitative study of tenured and tenure track engineering faculty at a Research I institution in the southwestern United States was to explore the variety of ways in which the engineering faculty responded to the demands placed upon them as a result of the increased emphasis on project teams in undergraduate engineering education. Social role theory and organizational climate theory guided the study. Some faculty viewed project teams as an opportunity for students to learn important professional skills and to benefit from collaborative learning but many questioned the importance and feasibility of teaching teamwork skills and had concerns about taking time away from other essential fundamental material such as mathematics, basic sciences and engineering sciences. Although the administration of the College of Engineering articulated strong support for the use of project teams in undergraduate education, the prevailing climate did little to promote significant efforts related to effective utilization of project teams. Too often, faculty were unwilling to commit sufficient time or effort to make project teamwork a truly valuable learning opportunity because those efforts were not perceived to be valuable and were rarely rewarded. Few formal professional development opportunities were available and few incentives were in place to encourage other informal efforts to develop the necessary skills. Those who committed significant effort to project teams were challenged by concerns about team composition, student accountability and assigning individual grades for group teamwork.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schrogl, K.-U.; Summerer, L.
2016-12-01
This article provides a comprehensive look at climate engineering and space. Its starting point is that the States are failing to slow down global warming. The consequences for the environment and the economic and societal burden are uncontested. The priority to maintain the use of fossil resources might soon lead to the implementation of deliberate engineering measures to alter the climate instead of reducing the greenhouse gases. The article describes these currently discussed measures for such climate engineering. It will particularly analyse the expected contributions from space to these concepts. Based on this it evaluates the economic and political implications and finally tests the conformity of these concepts with space law.
Zuur, J. K.; Muller, S. H.; de Jongh, F. H. C.; van der Horst, M. J.; Shehata, M.; van Leeuwen, J.; Sinaasappel, M.
2007-01-01
The aim of this study is to develop a postlaryngectomy airway climate explorer (ACE) for assessment of intratracheal temperature and humidity and of influence of heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs). Engineering goals were within-device condensation prevention and fast response time characteristics. The ACE consists of a small diameter, heated air-sampling catheter connected to a heated sensor house, containing a humidity sensor. Air is sucked through the catheter by a controlled-flow pump. Validation was performed in a climate chamber using a calibrated reference sensor and in a two-flow system. Additionally, the analyser was tested in vivo. Over the clinically relevant range of humidity values (5–42 mg H2O/l air) the sensor output highly correlates with the reference sensor readings (R2 > 0.99). The 1–1/e response times are all <0.5 s. A first in vivo pilot measurement was successful. The newly developed, verified, fast-responding ACE is suitable for postlaryngectomy airway climate assessment. PMID:17629761
Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering
Keith, David W.
2010-01-01
Aerosols could be injected into the upper atmosphere to engineer the climate by scattering incident sunlight so as to produce a cooling tendency that may mitigate the risks posed by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Analysis of climate engineering has focused on sulfate aerosols. Here I examine the possibility that engineered nanoparticles could exploit photophoretic forces, enabling more control over particle distribution and lifetime than is possible with sulfates, perhaps allowing climate engineering to be accomplished with fewer side effects. The use of electrostatic or magnetic materials enables a class of photophoretic forces not found in nature. Photophoretic levitation could loft particles above the stratosphere, reducing their capacity to interfere with ozone chemistry; and, by increasing particle lifetimes, it would reduce the need for continual replenishment of the aerosol. Moreover, particles might be engineered to drift poleward enabling albedo modification to be tailored to counter polar warming while minimizing the impact on equatorial climates. PMID:20823254
Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering.
Keith, David W
2010-09-21
Aerosols could be injected into the upper atmosphere to engineer the climate by scattering incident sunlight so as to produce a cooling tendency that may mitigate the risks posed by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Analysis of climate engineering has focused on sulfate aerosols. Here I examine the possibility that engineered nanoparticles could exploit photophoretic forces, enabling more control over particle distribution and lifetime than is possible with sulfates, perhaps allowing climate engineering to be accomplished with fewer side effects. The use of electrostatic or magnetic materials enables a class of photophoretic forces not found in nature. Photophoretic levitation could loft particles above the stratosphere, reducing their capacity to interfere with ozone chemistry; and, by increasing particle lifetimes, it would reduce the need for continual replenishment of the aerosol. Moreover, particles might be engineered to drift poleward enabling albedo modification to be tailored to counter polar warming while minimizing the impact on equatorial climates.
Incorporating global components into ethics education.
Wang, George; Thompson, Russell G
2013-03-01
Ethics is central to science and engineering. Young engineers need to be grounded in how corporate social responsibility principles can be applied to engineering organizations to better serve the broader community. This is crucial in times of climate change and ecological challenges where the vulnerable can be impacted by engineering activities. Taking a global perspective in ethics education will help ensure that scientists and engineers can make a more substantial contribution to development throughout the world. This paper presents the importance of incorporating the global and cross culture components in the ethic education. The authors bring up a question to educators on ethics education in science and engineering in the globalized world, and its importance, necessity, and impendency. The paper presents several methods for discussion that can be used to identify the differences in ethics standards and practices in different countries; enhance the student's knowledge of ethics in a global arena.
Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators
Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; Cavusoglu, Ahmet H.; Sabharwal, Nina; DeLay, Michael; Driks, Adam; Sahin, Ozgur
2015-01-01
Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth's climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. Here, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air–water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on water while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment. PMID:26079632
Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; Cavusoglu, Ahmet H.; Sabharwal, Nina; Delay, Michael; Driks, Adam; Sahin, Ozgur
2015-06-01
Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth's climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. Here, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air-water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on water while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.
Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
2016-12-01
Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed ClimateEngine.org, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.
Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morrow, David R.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael
2009-10-01
Climate engineering (CE), the intentional modification of the climate in order to reduce the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is sometimes touted as a potential response to climate change. Increasing interest in the topic has led to proposals for empirical tests of hypothesized CE techniques, which raise serious ethical concerns. We propose three ethical guidelines for CE researchers, derived from the ethics literature on research with human and animal subjects, applicable in the event that CE research progresses beyond computer modeling. The Principle of Respect requires that the scientific community secure the global public's consent, voiced through their governmental representatives, before beginning any empirical research. The Principle of Beneficence and Justice requires that researchers strive for a favorable risk-benefit ratio and a fair distribution of risks and anticipated benefits, all while protecting the basic rights of affected individuals. Finally, the Minimization Principle requires that researchers minimize the extent and intensity of each experiment by ensuring that no experiments last longer, cover a greater geographical extent, or have a greater impact on the climate, ecosystem, or human welfare than is necessary to test the specific hypotheses in question. Field experiments that might affect humans or ecosystems in significant ways should not proceed until a full discussion of the ethics of CE research occurs and appropriate institutions for regulating such experiments are established.
Considering Climate Change in Road and Building Design
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Kirshen, Paul H.; Daniel, Jo Sias
2013-07-01
What is the role of climate in infrastructure design? How can engineers design for a changing climate? How can climate scientists better inform the design process? These were the questions posed at the first Infrastructure and Climate Network (ICNet) Steering Committee Workshop, which was sponsored by a U.S. National Science Foundation research grant (CBET-1231326) from the Research Coordination Networks-Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability (RCN-SEES) program.
Enabling plant synthetic biology through genome engineering.
Baltes, Nicholas J; Voytas, Daniel F
2015-02-01
Synthetic biology seeks to create new biological systems, including user-designed plants and plant cells. These systems can be employed for a variety of purposes, ranging from producing compounds of industrial or therapeutic value, to reducing crop losses by altering cellular responses to pathogens or climate change. To realize the full potential of plant synthetic biology, techniques are required that provide control over the genetic code - enabling targeted modifications to DNA sequences within living plant cells. Such control is now within reach owing to recent advances in the use of sequence-specific nucleases to precisely engineer genomes. We discuss here the enormous potential provided by genome engineering for plant synthetic biology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The hydrological cycle response to cirrus cloud thinning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Schmidt, Hauke
2015-12-01
Recent multimodel studies have shown that if one attempts to cancel increasing CO2 concentrations by reducing absorbed solar radiation, the hydrological cycle will weaken if global temperature is kept unchanged. Using a global climate model, we investigate the hydrological cycle response to "cirrus cloud thinning (CCT)," which is a proposed climate engineering technique that seeks to enhance outgoing longwave radiation. Investigations of the "fast response" in experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures reveal that CCT causes a significant enhancement of the latent heat flux and precipitation. This is due to enhanced radiative cooling of the troposphere, which is opposite to the effect of increased CO2 concentrations. By combining CCT with CO2 increase in multidecadal simulations with a slab ocean, we demonstrate a systematic enhancement of the hydrological cycle due to CCT. This leads to enhanced moisture availability in low-latitude land regions and a strengthening of the Indian monsoon.
Uncertainty Management in Urban Water Engineering Adaptation to Climate Change
Current water resource planning and engineering assume a stationary climate, in which the observed historical water flow rate and water quality variations are often used to define the technical basis. When the non-stationarity is considered, however, climate change projection co...
A continuous latitudinal energy balance model to explore non-uniform climate engineering strategies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. R.
2016-12-01
Current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 exceed measured historical levels in modern times, largely attributed to anthropogenic forcing since the industrial revolution. The required decline in emissions rates has never been achieved leading to recent interest in climate engineering for future risk-mitigation strategies. Climate engineering aims to offset human-driven climate change. It involves techniques developed both to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods) and to counteract the radiative forcing that it generates (Solar Radiation Management (SRM) methods). In order to investigate effects of SRM technologies for climate engineering, an analytical model describing the main dynamics of the Earth's climate has been developed. The model is a time-dependent Energy Balance Model (EBM) with latitudinal resolution and allows for the evaluation of non-uniform climate engineering strategies. A significant disadvantage of climate engineering techniques involving the management of solar radiation is regional disparities in cooling. This model offers an analytical approach to design multi-objective strategies that counteract climate change on a regional basis: for example, to cool the Artic and restrict undesired impacts at mid-latitudes, or to control the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using the Green's function approach the resulting partial differential equation allows for the computation of the surface temperature as a function of time and latitude when a 1% per year increase in the CO2 concentration is considered. After the validation of the model through comparisons with high fidelity numerical models, it will be used to explore strategies for the injection of the aerosol precursors in the stratosphere. In particular, the model involves detailed description of the optical properties of the particles, the wash-out dynamics and the estimation of the radiative cooling they can generate.
Borland, Anne M; Wullschleger, Stan D; Weston, David J; Hartwell, James; Tuskan, Gerald A; Yang, Xiaohan; Cushman, John C
2015-09-01
Global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour-pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAM members of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. The introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Uncertainty Management in Urban Water Engineering Adaptation to Climate Change - abstract
Current water resource planning and engineering assume a stationary climate, in which the observed historical water flow rate and water quality variations are often used to define the technical basis. When the non-stationarity is considered, however, climate change projection co...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; Anderson, C.
2016-12-01
Engineers generally use historical precipitation trends to inform assumptions and parameters for long-lived infrastructure designs. However, resilient design calls for the adjustment of current engineering practice to incorporate a range of future climate conditions that are likely to be different than the past. Despite the availability of future projections from downscaled climate models, there remains a considerable mismatch between climate model outputs and the inputs needed in the engineering community to incorporate climate resiliency. These factors include differences in temporal and spatial scales, model uncertainties, and a lack of criteria for selection of an ensemble of models. This research addresses the limitations to working with climate data by providing a framework for the use of publicly available downscaled climate projections to inform engineering resiliency. The framework consists of five steps: 1) selecting the data source based on the engineering application, 2) extracting the data at a specific location, 3) validating for performance against observed data, 4) post-processing for bias or scale, and 5) selecting the ensemble and calculating statistics. The framework is illustrated with an example application to extreme precipitation-frequency statistics, the 25-year daily precipitation depth, using four publically available climate data sources: NARCCAP, USGS, Reclamation, and MACA. The attached figure presents the results for step 5 from the framework, analyzing how the 24H25Y depth changes when the model ensemble is culled based on model performance against observed data, for both post-processing techniques: bias-correction and change factor. Culling the model ensemble increases both the mean and median values for all data sources, and reduces range for NARCCAP and MACA ensembles due to elimination of poorer performing models, and in some cases, those that predict a decrease in future 24H25Y precipitation volumes. This result is especially relevant to engineers who wish to reduce the range of the ensemble and remove contradicting models; however, this result is not generalizable for all cases. Finally, this research highlights the need for the formation of an intermediate entity that is able to translate climate projections into relevant engineering information.
The engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation.
Williams, Victoria
2007-12-15
Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, with unique impacts due to the altitude of emissions. If existing traffic growth rates continue, radical engineering solutions will be required to prevent aviation becoming one of the dominant contributors to climate change. This paper reviews the engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation using aircraft and airspace technologies. These options include not only improvements in fuel efficiency, which would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also measures to reduce non-CO2 impacts including the formation of persistent contrails. Integrated solutions to optimize environmental performance will require changes to airframes, engines, avionics, air traffic control systems and airspace design. While market-based measures, such as offset schemes and emissions trading, receive growing attention, this paper sets out the crucial role of engineering in the challenge to develop a 'green air traffic system'.
A high-resolution, empirical approach to climate impact assessment for regulatory analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Delgado, M.; Simcock, J. G.; Greenstone, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Carleton, T.; Hultgren, A.; Jina, A.; Rising, J. A.; Nath, I.; Yuan, J.; Rode, A.; Chong, T.; Dobbels, G.; Hussain, A.; Wang, J.; Song, Y.; Mohan, S.; Larsen, K.; Houser, T.
2017-12-01
Recent breakthroughs in computing, data availability, and methodology have precipitated significant advances in the understanding of the relationship between climate and socioeconomic outcomes [1]. And while the use of estimates of the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. the SCC) are a mandatory component of regulatory policy in many jurisdictions, existing SCC-IAMs have lagged advances in impact assessment and valuation [2]. Recent work shows that incorporating high spatial and temporal resolution can significantly affect the observed relationships of economic outcomes to climate and socioeconomic factors [3] and that maintaining this granularity is critical to understanding the sensitivity of aggregate measures of valuation to inequality and risk adjustment methodologies [4]. We propose a novel framework that decomposes uncertainty in the SCC along multiple sources, including aggregate climate response parameters, the translation of global climate into local weather, the effect of weather on physical and economic systems, human and macro-economic responses, and impact valuation methodologies. This work extends Hsiang et al. (2017) [4] to directly estimate local response functions for multiple sectors in each of 24,378 global regions and to estimate impacts at this resolution daily, incorporating endogenous, empirically-estimated adaptation and costs. The goal of this work is to provide insight into the heterogeneity of climate impacts and to work with other modeling teams to enhance the empirical grounding of integrated climate impact assessment in more complex energy-environment-economics models. [1] T. Carleton and S. Hsiang (2016), DOI: 10.1126/science.aad9837. [2] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017), DOI: 10.17226/24651. [3] Burke, M., S. Hsiang, and E. Miguel (2015), DOI: 10.1038/nature15725. [4] S. Hsiang et al. (2017), DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369.
The paper discusses the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory (AEERL) research plan for work in the global climate area. The plan, written for discussion with senior scientists and program managers at EPA's Global Climate Change Re...
Earth System Monitoring, Introduction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Orcutt, John
This section provides sensing and data collection methodologies, as well as an understanding of Earth's climate parameters and natural and man-made phenomena, to support a scientific assessment of the Earth system as a whole, and its response to natural and human-induced changes. The coverage ranges from climate change factors and extreme weather and fires to oil spill tracking and volcanic eruptions. This serves as a basis to enable improved prediction and response to climate change, weather, and natural hazards as well as dissemination of the data and conclusions. The data collection systems include satellite remote sensing, aerial surveys, and land- and ocean-based monitoring stations. Our objective in this treatise is to provide a significant portion of the scientific and engineering basis of Earth system monitoring and to provide this in 17 detailed articles or chapters written at a level for use by university students through practicing professionals. The reader is also directed to the closely related sections on Ecological Systems, Introduction and also Climate Change Modeling Methodology, Introduction as well as Climate Change Remediation, Introduction to. For ease of use by students, each article begins with a glossary of terms, while at an average length of 25 print pages each, sufficient detail is presented for use by professionals in government, universities, and industries. The chapters are individually summarized below.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thakali, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.
2016-12-01
In the spring of 2016 the City of Las Vegas and the Southern Illinois University began collaborating on a project that seeks to assess the city's current vulnerability to drought, extreme heat, and extreme precipitation patterns, as well as the response mechanisms that are already in place within its jurisdiction. The document analyzes a series of scenarios to assess to what extent the vulnerability of four Key Planning Areas will change in the long term (30-50 years), what will be the most affected city operations, and what mechanisms the City will need to put into place to adapt to such changes. As part of the vulnerability report, this study assessed the impacts of climate change in the existing stormwater system of the Gowan watershed within City of Las Vegas, NV, by assessing projected design storms. The climate change projection for the region was evaluated using the high-resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate model data. The design storms (6h 100y) were calculated using the best fitted probability distribution among twenty-seven distributions for the historic and future NARCCAP climate model projection. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to assess the performance of NARCCAP data. The projected design storms were implemented in an existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model developed by Clark County Regional Flood Control District (CCRFCD), Las Vegas. The simulation results showed an increase in the design storms which exceeded the capacity of existing stormwater infrastructure.
Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) Project Status
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carlisle, Candace
2018-01-01
TSIS-1 studies the Sun's energy input to Earth and how solar variability affects climate. TSIS-1 will measure both the total amount of light that falls on Earth, known as the total solar irradiance (TSI), and how that light is distributed among ultraviolet, visible and infrared wavelengths, called solar spectral irradiance (SSI). TSIS-1 will provide the most accurate measurements of sunlight and continue the long-term climate data record. TSIS-1 includes two instruments: the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), integrated into a single payload on the International Space Station (ISS). The TSIS-1 TIM and SIM instruments are upgraded versions of the two instruments that are flying on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission launched in January 2003. NASA Goddard's TSIS project responsibilities include project management, system engineering, safety and mission assurance, and engineering oversight for TSIS-1. TSIS-1 was installed on the International Space Station in December 2017. At the end of the 90-day commissioning phase, responsibility for TSIS-1 operations transitions to the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) project at Goddard for its 5-year operations. NASA contracts with the University of Colorado Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) for the design, development and testing of TSIS-1, support for ISS integration, science operations of the TSIS-1 instrument, data processing, data evaluation, calibration and delivery to the Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walker, D.; Ayyub, B. M.
2017-12-01
According to U.S. Census, new construction spending in the U.S. for 2014 was $993 Billion (roughly 6 percent of U.S. GDP). Informing the development of standards of engineering practice related to design and maintenance thus represents a significant opportunity to promote climate adaptation and mitigation, as well as community resilience. The climate science community informs us that extremes of climate and weather are changing from historical values and that the changes are driven substantially by emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Civil infrastructure systems traditionally have been designed, constructed, operated and maintained for appropriate probabilities of functionality, durability and safety while exposed to climate and weather extremes during their full service lives. Because of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and in the models for future climate and weather extremes, neither the climate science community nor the engineering community presently can define the statistics of future climate and weather extremes. The American Society for Civil Engineering's (ASCE) Committee on Adapting to a Changing Climate is actively involved in efforts internal and external to ASCE to promote understanding of the challenges climate change represents in engineering practice and to promote a re-examination of those practices that may need to change in light of changing climate. In addition to producing an ASCE e-book, as well as number of ASCE webinars, the Committee is currently developing a Manual of Practice intended to provide guidance for the development or enhancement of standards for infrastructure analysis and design in a world in which risk profiles are changing (non-stationarity) and climate change is a reality, but cannot be projected with a high degree of certainty. This presentation will explore both the need for such guidance as well as some of the challenges and opportunities facing its implementation.
Climate Change: On Scientists and Advocacy
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schmidt, Gavin A.
2014-01-01
Last year, I asked a crowd of a few hundred geoscientists from around the world what positions related to climate science and policy they would be comfortable publicly advocating. I presented a list of recommendations that included increased research funding, greater resources for education, and specific emission reduction technologies. In almost every case, a majority of the audience felt comfortable arguing for them. The only clear exceptions were related to geo-engineering research and nuclear power. I had queried the researchers because the relationship between science and advocacy is marked by many assumptions and little clarity. This despite the fact that the basic question of how scientists can be responsible advocates on issues related to their expertise has been discussed for decades most notably in the case of climate change by the late Stephen Schneider.
Considerations in Starting Climate Change Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Long, J. C. S.; Morgan, G.; Hamburg, S.; Winickoff, D. E.
2014-12-01
Many have called for climate engineering research because the growing risks of climate change and the geopolitical and national security risks of climate remediation technologies are real. As the topic of climate engineering remains highly controversial, national funding agencies should evaluate even modest outdoor climate engineering research proposals with respect to societal, legal, and risk considerations in making a decision to fund or not to fund. These concerns will be extremely difficult to coordinate internationally if they are not first considered successfully on a national basis. Assessment of a suite of proposed research projects with respect to these considerations indicates we would learn valuable lessons about how to govern research by initiating a few exemplar projects. The first time an issue arrives it can be very helpful if it there are specific cases, not a broad class of projects. A good first case should be defensible and understandable, fit within the general mandate of existing research programs, have negligible physical risk, small physical scale and short duration. By focusing on a specific case, the discussion can be held with limits and help to establish some track record in dealing with a controversial subject and developing a process for assigning appropriate scrutiny and outreach. Even at an early stage, with low risk, small-scale experiments, obtaining broad-based advice will aid in dealing with the controversies. An independent advisory body can provide guidance about a wide spectrum of physical and social risks of funding the experiment compared to societal benefit of gaining understanding. Clearly identifying the research as climate engineering research avoids sending research down a path that might violate public trust and provide an important opportunity to grow governance and public engagement at an early stage. Climate engineering research should be seen in the context of all approaches to dealing with the climate problem. Much of climate-engineering research will inspire investigators to address significant and difficult problems in climate science. US research programs should use this fact for societal benefit. Agencies should assess the early research and use the assessment to make decisions about how to, or not to, proceed.
Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators
Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; ...
2015-06-16
Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth’s climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. In this work, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air–water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on watermore » while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.« less
Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan
Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth’s climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. In this work, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air–water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on watermore » while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.« less
Generating and Visualizing Climate Indices using Google Earth Engine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erickson, T. A.; Guentchev, G.; Rood, R. B.
2017-12-01
Climate change is expected to have largest impacts on regional and local scales. Relevant and credible climate information is needed to support the planning and adaptation efforts in our communities. The volume of climate projections of temperature and precipitation is steadily increasing, as datasets are being generated on finer spatial and temporal grids with an increasing number of ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Despite advancements in tools for querying and retrieving subsets of these large, multi-dimensional datasets, ease of access remains a barrier for many existing and potential users who want to derive useful information from these data, particularly for those outside of the climate modelling research community. Climate indices, that can be derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, such as annual number of frost days or growing season length, can provide useful information to practitioners and stakeholders. For this work the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was loaded into Google Earth Engine, a cloud-based geospatial processing platform. Algorithms that use the Earth Engine API to generate several climate indices were written. The indices were chosen from the set developed by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Simple user interfaces were created that allow users to query, produce maps and graphs of the indices, as well as download results for additional analyses. These browser-based interfaces could allow users in low-bandwidth environments to access climate information. This research shows that calculating climate indices from global downscaled climate projection datasets and sharing them widely using cloud computing technologies is feasible. Further development will focus on exposing the climate indices to existing applications via the Earth Engine API, and building custom user interfaces for presenting climate indices to a diverse set of user groups.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Walton, Gregory M.; Logel, Christine; Peach, Jennifer M.; Spencer, Steven J.; Zanna, Mark P.
2015-01-01
In a randomized-controlled trial, we tested 2 brief interventions designed to mitigate the effects of a "chilly climate" women may experience in engineering, especially in male-dominated fields. Participants were students entering a selective university engineering program. The "social-belonging intervention" aimed to protect…
K.L. Hatcher; J.A. Jones
2013-01-01
Large river basins transfer the water signal from the atmosphere to the ocean. Climate change is widely expected to alter streamflow and potentially disrupt water management systems. We tested the ecological resilienceâcapacity of headwater ecosystems to sustain streamflow under climate changeâand the engineering resilienceâcapacity of dam and reservoir management to...
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-07-16
...'') imported by Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. (collectively, ``Valeo..., Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court No. 12-00381 (CIT February 13, 2013).\\2... Remand, Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling, Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Thielen, Joanna; Samuel, Sara M.; Carlson, Jake; Moldwin, Mark
2017-01-01
Engineering researchers face increasing pressure to manage, share, and preserve their data, but these subjects are not typically a part of the curricula of engineering graduate programs. To address this situation, librarians at the University of Michigan, in partnership with the Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Department, developed a…
Markstrom, Steven L.
2012-01-01
A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.
Reflections on a Career in Radio Science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peden, Irene C.
2006-12-01
Why would a WWII-generation teenager select an engineering career? Dr. Peden outlines the background, motivations and patterns of personal interest that led to her choice in the wartime “climate” of that period, including the influence of teachers and parents. She remembers experiencing the need to undertake graduate studies 10 years later, and recalls why she chose an academic career. She later became a leader in campus and national efforts to improve the professional climate for women, and will comment on the variation s in campus attitudes toward diversity over the years. Finally, she offers her thoughts on the special challenges for faculty that are presented by student views of their own responsibilities and roles in engineering education, and reflects on the impact of these factors on the science/mathematics/engineering “pipeline” .
Wang, Hongyan; Wang, Honglei; Shao, Hongbo; Tang, Xiaoli
2016-01-01
Agricultural production and quality are adversely affected by various abiotic stresses worldwide and this will be exacerbated by the deterioration of global climate. To feed a growing world population, it is very urgent to breed stress-tolerant crops with higher yields and improved qualities against multiple environmental stresses. Since conventional breeding approaches had marginal success due to the complexity of stress tolerance traits, the transgenic approach is now being popularly used to breed stress-tolerant crops. So identifying and characterizing the critical genes involved in plant stress responses is an essential prerequisite for engineering stress-tolerant crops. Far beyond the manipulation of single functional gene, engineering certain regulatory genes has emerged as an effective strategy now for controlling the expression of many stress-responsive genes. Transcription factors (TFs) are good candidates for genetic engineering to breed stress-tolerant crop because of their role as master regulators of many stress-responsive genes. Many TFs belonging to families AP2/EREBP, MYB, WRKY, NAC, bZIP have been found to be involved in various abiotic stresses and some TF genes have also been engineered to improve stress tolerance in model and crop plants. In this review, we take five large families of TFs as examples and review the recent progress of TFs involved in plant abiotic stress responses and their potential utilization to improve multiple stress tolerance of crops in the field conditions. PMID:26904044
Sustainable Development and Energy Geotechnology Potential Roles for Geotechnical Engineering
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
FragaszyProgram Dire, Dr. R. J.; Santamarina, Carlos; Espinoza, N.
2011-01-01
The world is facing unprecedented challenges related to energy resources, global climate change, material use, and waste generation. Failure to address these challenges will inhibit the growth of the developing world and will negatively impact the standard of living and security of future generations in all nations. The solutions to these challenges will require multidisciplinary research across the social and physical sciences and engineering. Although perhaps not always recognized, geotechnical engineering expertise is critical to the solution of many energy and sustainability-related problems. Hence, geotechnical engineers and academicians have opportunity and responsibility to contribute to the solution of these worldwidemore » problems. Research will need to be extended to non-standard issues such as thermal properties of soils; sediment and rock response to extreme conditions and at very long time scales; coupled hydro-chemo-thermo-bio-mechanical processes; positive feedback systems; the development of discontinuities; biological modification of soil properties; spatial variability; and emergent phenomena. Clearly, the challenges facing geotechnical engineering in the future will require a much broader knowledge base than our traditional educational programs provide. The geotechnical engineering curricula, from undergraduate education through continuing professional education, must address the changing needs of a profession that will increasingly be engaged in alternative/renewable energy production; energy efficiency; sustainable design, enhanced and more efficient use of natural resources, waste management, and underground utilization.« less
Energy decisions reframed as justice and ethical concerns
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Heffron, Raphael J.; McCauley, Darren; Goldthau, Andreas
2016-05-01
All too often, energy policy and technology discussions are limited to the domains of engineering and economics. Many energy consumers, and even analysts and policymakers, confront and frame energy and climate risks in a moral vacuum, rarely incorporating broader social justice concerns. Here, to remedy this gap, we investigate how concepts from justice and ethics can inform energy decision-making by reframing five energy problems — nuclear waste, involuntary resettlement, energy pollution, energy poverty and climate change — as pressing justice concerns. We conclude by proposing an energy justice framework centred on availability, affordability, due process, transparency and accountability, sustainability, equity and responsibility, which highlights the futurity, fairness and equity dimensions of energy production and use.
Calcification, Storm Damage and Population Resilience of Tabular Corals under Climate Change
Madin, Joshua S.; Hughes, Terry P.; Connolly, Sean R.
2012-01-01
Two facets of climate change–increased tropical storm intensity and ocean acidification–are expected to detrimentally affect reef-building organisms by increasing their mortality rates and decreasing their calcification rates. Our current understanding of these effects is largely based on individual organisms’ short-term responses to experimental manipulations. However, predicting the ecologically-relevant effects of climate change requires understanding the long-term demographic implications of these organism-level responses. In this study, we investigate how storm intensity and calcification rate interact to affect population dynamics of the table coral Acropora hyacinthus, a dominant and geographically widespread ecosystem engineer on wave-exposed Indo-Pacific reefs. We develop a mechanistic framework based on the responses of individual-level demographic rates to changes in the physical and chemical environment, using a size-structured population model that enables us to rigorously incorporate uncertainty. We find that table coral populations are vulnerable to future collapse, placing in jeopardy many other reef organisms that are dependent upon them for shelter and food. Resistance to collapse is largely insensitive to predicted changes in storm intensity, but is highly dependent on the extent to which calcification influences both the mechanical properties of reef substrate and the colony-level trade-off between growth rate and skeletal strength. This study provides the first rigorous quantitative accounting of the demographic implications of the effects of ocean acidification and changes in storm intensity, and provides a template for further studies of climate-induced shifts in ecosystems, including coral reefs. PMID:23056379
Requirements Engineering in Building Climate Science Software
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Batcheller, Archer L.
2011-01-01
Software has an important role in supporting scientific work. This dissertation studies teams that build scientific software, focusing on the way that they determine what the software should do. These requirements engineering processes are investigated through three case studies of climate science software projects. The Earth System Modeling…
Volcanic Eruptions and Climate: Outstanding Research Issues
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robock, Alan
2016-04-01
Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. Based on observations after major eruptions of the past and experiments with numerical models of the climate system, we understand much about their climatic impact, but there are also a number of unanswered questions. Volcanic eruptions produce global cooling, and are an important natural cause of interannual, interdecadal, and even centennial-scale climate change. One of the most interesting volcanic effects is the "winter warming" of Northern Hemisphere continents following major tropical eruptions. During the winter in the Northern Hemisphere following every large tropical eruption of the past century, surface air temperatures over North America, Europe, and East Asia were warmer than normal, while they were colder over Greenland and the Middle East. This pattern and the coincident atmospheric circulation correspond to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. While this response is observed after recent major eruptions, most state-of-the-art climate models have trouble simulating winter warming. Why? High latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, while also producing global cooling, do not have the same impact on atmospheric dynamics. Both tropical and high latitude eruptions can weaken the Indian and African summer monsoon, and the effects can be seen in past records of flow in the Nile and Niger Rivers. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade have had a small effect on global temperature trends. Some important outstanding research questions include: How much seasonal, annual, and decadal predictability is possible following a large volcanic eruption? Do volcanic eruptions change the probability of El Niño or La Niña in the years following the eruption? Are there decadal-scale oceanic responses that can provide long-term predictability? What was the contribution of volcanic eruptions to initiation and maintenance of the Little Ice Age? What are the observational needs for future volcanic eruptions that will help to improve forecasts, observe responses following volcanic eruptions, and better understand nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosols, which is important for evaluating suggestions for considering anthropogenic stratospheric clouds for climate engineering?
Introducing future engineers to sustainable ecology problems: a case study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Filipkowski, A.
2011-12-01
The problem of Earth environmental destruction by human activities is becoming dangerous. Engineers responsible for the production of any goods should be well aware of the negative influence of their activities on the state of the planet. This is why the understanding of ecological problems is essential for people responsible for production and industrial design. The energy, which they consume, is increasing the greenhouse effect and the waste poisons the environment. So far, most courses on ecology are offered to specialists in environmental engineering. These courses are filled with many details. The Warsaw Academy of Computer Science, Management and Administration teaches students in the direction of management and production engineering. Upon completion, the students receive the degree of 'engineer'. Their future work will mainly concern management of different types of industrial enterprises and they will be responsible for organising it in such a way as to avoid a dangerous contribution to environmental pollution and climate change. This is why it was decided to introduce a new course entitled 'Principles of Ecology and Environmental Management'. This course is quite broad, concerning almost all technical, law and organisational aspects of the problem. The presentation is made in a spectacular way, aiming to convince students that their future activity must be environmentally friendly. It contains information about international activities in ecology, legal aspects concerning pollution, technical and information methods of monitoring and, finally, the description of 'green' solutions. Altogether, 27 hours of lectures and 15 hours of discussions and students' presentations complete the course. Details of this course are described in this paper.
Sharwood, Robert E
2017-01-01
494 I. 495 II. 496 III. 496 IV. 499 V. 499 VI. 501 VII. 501 VIII. 502 IX. 505 X. 506 507 References 507 SUMMARY: The uncertainty of future climate change is placing pressure on cropping systems to continue to provide stable increases in productive yields. To mitigate future climates and the increasing threats against global food security, new solutions to manipulate photosynthesis are required. This review explores the current efforts available to improve carbon assimilation within plant chloroplasts by engineering Rubisco, which catalyzes the rate-limiting step of CO 2 fixation. Fixation of CO 2 and subsequent cycling of 3-phosphoglycerate through the Calvin cycle provides the necessary carbohydrate building blocks for maintaining plant growth and yield, but has to compete with Rubisco oxygenation, which results in photorespiration that is energetically wasteful for plants. Engineering improvements in Rubisco is a complex challenge and requires an understanding of chloroplast gene regulatory pathways, and the intricate nature of Rubisco catalysis and biogenesis, to transplant more efficient forms of Rubisco into crops. In recent times, major advances in Rubisco engineering have been achieved through improvement of our knowledge of Rubisco synthesis and assembly, and identifying amino acid catalytic switches in the L-subunit responsible for improvements in catalysis. Improving the capacity of CO 2 fixation in crops such as rice will require further advances in chloroplast bioengineering and Rubisco biogenesis. © 2016 The Author. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.
Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas
2014-01-01
The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320
Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John
2014-04-01
Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.
Investigating the Connections between Oil and Gas Industry Affiliation and Climate Change Concerns
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schrader, S. M.; Bunnell, D.; Danielson, C.; Borglum, S.
2012-12-01
In addition to the research on scientific aspects of climate change, significant work has also been done on the perception of climate change among various sectors of the population. This is an important area of research as in many cases the science policy of a country is a function of the popular sentiment. One area of interest is the relationship between education, specifically in related areas such as earth sciences and engineering, to one's views on climate change. While research has shown that there is a correlation between higher education and an acceptance of human caused climate change, this work looks into the question more specifically. The question asked here is: given a group of people with education and experience in the earth sciences, does the area of employment affect how they view the issue? In other words, does an engineer or geoscientist working in the oil and gas industry look at the data relating to climate change in the same way an equivalently educated engineer or geoscientist working in another field does? An understanding of whether or not employment in the oil and gas industry has a similar effect on views of climate change as political or religious ideologies may help in fostering communication between disciplines and working together for solutions. In order to look at this question, a survey is being conducted of members in the petroleum engineering community. The survey is designed along the lines of similar surveys to measure the respondents understanding of, concern with, and beliefs about climate change. It also includes other correlating factors such as political and religious views. A second group of engineers in fields that typically place them outside of the oil and gas industry are being surveyed as a control group. The results will determine whether individuals with similar educational backgrounds look at the data connected with climate change differently based on the field in which they work, and if so, are there other confounding issues related to political and religious background and ideology.
Climate consequences of large-scale land-use changes as climate engineering tools
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mayer, Dorothea; Kracher, Daniela; Reick, Christian; Pongratz, Julia
2015-04-01
Terrestrial carbon sinks are much-discussed as climate engineering methods both in politics and science. The debate focuses mostly on their potential for carbon sequestration and fossil-fuel substitution, whereas other effects such as changes in heat and water fluxes are often ignored. We assess potentials and side-effects of two different land-use types suggested as climate engineering tools, forest and herbaceous biomass plantations. We integrate herbaceous biomass plantations as new plant functional types into the land component (JSBACH) of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Herbaceous biomass plantations alter surface albedo, carbon and water cycles compared to forests. We adapted the JSBACH carbon cycle (assimilation and respiration) to reflect a highly productive biomass grass and the phenology to account for harvests just before the beginning of the growing season. The harvested material is transferred to a separate pool that can be adapted to reflect different biomass utilization pathways. Where possible, the model was validated using yield measurements and water-use efficiency calculations available from literature data. We compare the potentials and side-effects of afforestation and herbaceous biomass plantations in a plausible global scenario: under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, large areas of agricultural lands are projected to be abandoned as food production intensifies on the most productive soils. We intend to model the climatic consequences of using these abandoned croplands for afforestation or biomass plantations, under an RCP 8.5 forcing (high CO2 emissions). We emphasize differences between biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use on climate and how these factors interact on the local and global scale. Apart from direct climatic effects (energy, water, and carbon fluxes), we attempt to consistently account for fossil-fuel substitution effects of biomass plantations in a coupled model. This study comprises the fist part of a larger project analyzing four different land-use types: unmanaged forest, managed forest, woody biomass plantations and herbaceous biomass plantations. Our study is part of the interdisciplinary program 'Climate Engineering: Risks, Challenges and Opportunities?' which allows for a consistent comparison of land-based climate engineering to other methods such as solar radiation management or ocean alkalinization.
40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-07-01
... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...
40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-07-01
... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...
40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-07-01
... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...
25. PHOTOCOPY OF PLAN DRAWING. Quartermaster Research and Development Laboratory, ...
25. PHOTOCOPY OF PLAN DRAWING. Quartermaster Research and Development Laboratory, Natick, Mass. Climatic Building, First Floor Plan, Refrigeration and Engineering. Drawing No. 35-07-01, Sheet 52 of 72, 1952. (Source: NRDEC). - Natick Research & Development Laboratories, Climatic Chambers Building, U.S. Army Natick Research, Development & Engineering Center (NRDEC), Natick, Middlesex County, MA
40 CFR 86.230-11 - Test sequence: general requirements.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-07-01
... vehicle interior climate control system shall be operated with the interior heating system on and the air... changes (e.g., engine-off logic, idle speed operation, spark advance changes) and engine control features...) Prior to the first acceleration of the test at T=20 seconds the climate control settings shall be set as...
Campaign datasets for Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON)
Martin,Scot; Mei,Fan; Alexander,Lizabeth; Artaxo,Paulo; Barbosa,Henrique; Bartholomew,Mary Jane; Biscaro,Thiago; Buseck,Peter; Chand,Duli; Comstock,Jennifer; Dubey,Manvendra; Godstein,Allen; Guenther,Alex; Hubbe,John; Jardine,Kolby; Jimenez,Jose-Luis; Kim,Saewung; Kuang,Chongai; Laskin,Alexander; Long,Chuck; Paralovo,Sarah; Petaja,Tuukka; Powers,Heath; Schumacher,Courtney; Sedlacek,Arthur; Senum,Gunnar; Smith,James; Shilling,John; Springston,Stephen; Thayer,Mitchell; Tomlinson,Jason; Wang,Jian; Xie,Shaocheng
2016-05-30
The hydrologic cycle of the Amazon Basin is one of the primary heat engines of the Southern Hemisphere. Any accurate climate model must succeed in a good description of the Basin, both in its natural state and in states perturbed by regional and global human activities. At the present time, however, tropical deep convection in a natural state is poorly understood and modeled, with insufficient observational data sets for model constraint. Furthermore, future climate scenarios resulting from human activities globally show the possible drying and the eventual possible conversion of rain forest to savanna in response to global climate change. Based on our current state of knowledge, the governing conditions of this catastrophic change are not defined. Human activities locally, including the economic development activities that are growing the population and the industry within the Basin, also have the potential to shift regional climate, most immediately by an increment in aerosol number and mass concentrations, and the shift is across the range of values to which cloud properties are most sensitive. The ARM Climate Research Facility in the Amazon Basin seeks to understand aerosol and cloud life cycles, particularly the susceptibility to cloud aerosol precipitation interactions, within the Amazon Basin.
Timing and Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrological Impacts: Periodicity in Natural Variations
Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers, and predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. In palaeoclmatic investigations, climate proxy evidence has une...
Significant Climate Changes Caused by Soot Emitted From Rockets in the Stratosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mills, M. J.; Ross, M.; Toohey, D. W.
2010-12-01
A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine with a larger soot emission index than current kerosene rockets is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. At projected launch rates, emissions from these rockets will create a persistent soot layer in the northern middle stratosphere that would disproportionally affect the Earth’s atmosphere and cryosphere. A global climate model predicts that thermal forcing in the rocket soot layer will cause significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical ozone columns decline as much as 1%, while polar ozone columns increase by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures rise one Kelvin regionally and polar summer sea ice fractions shrink between 5 - 15%. After 20 years of suborbital rocket fleet operation, globally averaged radiative forcing (RF) from rocket soot exceeds the RF from rocket CO_{2} by six orders of magnitude, but remains small, comparable to the global RF from aviation. The response of the climate system is surprising given the small forcing, and should be investigated further with different climate models.
How does the sensitivity of climate affect stratospheric solar radiation management?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ricke, K.; Rowlands, D. J.; Ingram, W.; Keith, D.; Morgan, M. G.
2011-12-01
If implementation of proposals to engineer the climate through solar radiation management (SRM) ever occurs, it is likely to be contingent upon climate sensitivity. Despite this, no modeling studies have examined how the effectiveness of SRM forcings differs between the typical Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with climate sensitivities close to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) mean and ones with high climate sensitivities. Here, we use a perturbed physics ensemble modeling experiment to examine variations in the response of climate to SRM under different climate sensitivities. When SRM is used as a substitute for mitigation its ability to maintain the current climate state gets worse with increased climate sensitivity and with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, our results also demonstrate that the potential of SRM to slow climate change, even at the regional level, grows with climate sensitivity. On average, SRM reduces regional rates of temperature change by more than 90 percent and rates of precipitation change by more than 50 percent in these higher sensitivity model configurations. To investigate how SRM might behave in models with high climate sensitivity that are also consistent with recent observed climate change we perform a "perturbed physics" ensemble (PPE) modelling experiment with the climateprediction.net (cpdn) version of the HadCM3L AOGCM. Like other perturbed physics climate modelling experiments, we simulate past and future climate scenarios using a wide range of model parameter combinations that both reproduce past climate within a specified level of accuracy and simulate future climates with a wide range of climate sensitivities. We chose 43 members ("model versions") from a subset of the 1,550 from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climateprediction.net project that have data that allow restarts. We use our results to explore how much assessments of SRM that use best-estimate models, and so near-median climate sensitivity, may be ignoring important contingencies associated with implementing SRM in reality. A primary motivation for studying SRM via the injection of aerosols in the stratosphere is to evaluate its potential effectiveness as "insurance" in the case of higher-than-expected climate response to global warming. We find that this is precisely when SRM appears to be least effective in returning regional climates to their baseline states and reducing regional rates of precipitation change. On the other hand, given the very high regional temperature anomalies associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations in high sensitivity models, it is also where SRM is most effective in reducing rates of change relative to a no SRM alternative.
Impacts of climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in major watersheds of China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, L.
2017-12-01
Impacts of climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in major watersheds of ChinaLijun Wang1, Fuqiang Tian1*, Hongchang Hu11State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,Abstracts: During the past 50 years, runoff from the major watersheds in China has demonstrated a decrease trend. The variations in the amount of precipitation will directly influence the runoff, however in some parts of China, it is also found that there is huge variations in the amount of runoff whereas the amount of precipitation has not shown such variations. In the same time, the intensity and duration of rainfall has changed a lot. Therefore, it is important to categorize the different trends of runoff and to identify the major factors responsible for these changes. In this study, we have collected the data of 200 different locations from 8 major watersheds of China. By comparing and analyzing the daily precipitation and the daily runoff data, we have found some significant changes in runoff coefficients between two periods (1979-1988 and 2006-2014). On the basis of this, the further study will be carried out which identify that how the climate change influences the two major components of runoff, baseflow and stormflow. The impact of anthropogenic activity in the study area could not be ignored and it is important to know whether human action and climate change is the main factors for the decline of waterflow in river and how these factors influence the river water.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oschlies, Andreas; Klepper, Gernot
2017-01-01
The historical developments are reviewed that have led from a bottom-up responsibility initiative of concerned scientists to the emergence of a nationwide interdisciplinary Priority Program on the assessment of Climate Engineering (CE) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Given the perceived lack of comprehensive and comparative appraisals of different CE methods, the Priority Program was designed to encompass both solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) ideas and to cover the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic realm. First, key findings obtained by the ongoing Priority Program are summarized and reveal that, compared to earlier assessments such as the 2009 Royal Society report, more detailed investigations tend to indicate less efficiency, lower effectiveness, and often lower safety. Emerging research trends are discussed in the context of the recent Paris agreement to limit global warming to less than two degrees and the associated increasing reliance on negative emission technologies. Our results show then when deployed at scales large enough to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO2, even CDR methods such as afforestation—often perceived as "benign"—can have substantial side effects and may raise severe ethical, legal, and governance issues. We suppose that before being deployed at climatically relevant scales, any negative emission or CE method will require careful analysis of efficiency, effectiveness, and undesired side effects.
Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.
2017-01-01
Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.
The Dawning of the Ethics of Environmental Robots.
van Wynsberghe, Aimee; Donhauser, Justin
2017-10-23
Environmental scientists and engineers have been exploring research and monitoring applications of robotics, as well as exploring ways of integrating robotics into ecosystems to aid in responses to accelerating environmental, climatic, and biodiversity changes. These emerging applications of robots and other autonomous technologies present novel ethical and practical challenges. Yet, the critical applications of robots for environmental research, engineering, protection and remediation have received next to no attention in the ethics of robotics literature to date. This paper seeks to fill that void, and promote the study of environmental robotics. It provides key resources for further critical examination of the issues environmental robots present by explaining and differentiating the sorts of environmental robotics that exist to date and identifying unique conceptual, ethical, and practical issues they present.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Niepold, F.; Byers, A.
2009-12-01
The scientific complexities of global climate change, with wide-ranging economic and social significance, create an intellectual challenge that mandates greater public understanding of climate change research and the concurrent ability to make informed decisions. The critical need for an engaged, science literate public has been repeatedly emphasized by multi-disciplinary entities like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academies (Rising Above the Gathering Storm report), and the interagency group responsible for the recently updated Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. There is a clear need for an American public that is climate literate and for K-12 teachers confident in teaching relevant science content. A key goal in the creation of a climate literate society is to enhance teachers’ knowledge of global climate change through a national, scalable, and sustainable professional development system, using compelling climate science data and resources to stimulate inquiry-based student interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). This session will explore innovative e-learning technologies to address the limitations of one-time, face-to-face workshops, thereby adding significant sustainability and scalability. The resources developed will help teachers sift through the vast volume of global climate change information and provide research-based, high-quality science content and pedagogical information to help teachers effectively teach their students about the complex issues surrounding global climate change. The Learning Center is NSTA's e-professional development portal to help the nations teachers and informal educators learn about the scientific complexities of global climate change through research-based techniques and is proven to significantly improve teacher science content knowledge.
Climate Signals: An On-Line Digital Platform for Mapping Climate Change Impacts in Real Time
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cutting, H.
2016-12-01
Climate Signals is an on-line digital platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. The CS platform specifies and details the chains of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to to engage and serve the general public, news media, and policy-makers, particularly in real-time during extreme climate events. Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, a mapping engine, and a gallery of climate change monitors offering real-time data. For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom attribution "tree" that illustrates the connections to climate change. In addition, links to key contextual resources are aggregated and curated for each event. All event records are fully annotated with detailed source citations and corresponding hyper links. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change in real-time is detailed here. This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Launched in May 2016, the operation of this platform offers lessons for public engagement in climate change impacts.
Developing Models for Predictive Climate Science
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Drake, John B; Jones, Philip W
2007-01-01
The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration designed to construct cutting-edge climate science simulation models for a broad research community. Predictive climate simulations are currently being prepared for the petascale computers of the near future. Modeling capabilities are continuously being improved in order to provide better answers to critical questions about Earth's climate. Climate change and its implications are front page news in today's world. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should more resources be devoted to preparing for an increase in the frequency of strongmore » tropical storms and hurricanes like Katrina? Will coastal cities be flooded due to a rise in sea level? The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which archives all weather data for the nation, reports that global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and that the rate of increase is three times greater since 1976. Will temperatures continue to climb at this rate, will they decline again, or will the rate of increase become even steeper? To address such a flurry of questions, scientists must adopt a systematic approach and develop a predictive framework. With responsibility for advising on energy and technology strategies, the DOE is dedicated to advancing climate research in order to elucidate the causes of climate change, including the role of carbon loading from fossil fuel use. Thus, climate science--which by nature involves advanced computing technology and methods--has been the focus of a number of DOE's SciDAC research projects. Dr. John Drake (ORNL) and Dr. Philip Jones (LANL) served as principal investigators on the SciDAC project, 'Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers.' The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a fully-coupled global system that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. The collaborative SciDAC team--including over a dozen researchers at institutions around the country--developed, validated, documented, and optimized the performance of CCSM using the latest software engineering approaches, computational technology, and scientific knowledge. Many of the factors that must be accounted for in a comprehensive model of the climate system are illustrated in figure 1.« less
1. View southeast of Climatic Chambers Building from roof of ...
1. View southeast of Climatic Chambers Building from roof of Research Building. - Natick Research & Development Laboratories, Climatic Chambers Building, U.S. Army Natick Research, Development & Engineering Center (NRDEC), Natick, Middlesex County, MA
Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.
2015-12-01
Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the tradeoffs between using structural and non-structural flood management strategies to ensure economic and ecological robustness.
NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.
2015-12-01
The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schulz, Phyllis
2014-01-01
Women remain underrepresented in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) at all levels of higher education, which has become a concern in the competitive global marketplace. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, this dissertation sought to learn more about how the campus climate and self-concept influence the degree…
Biogeochemical carbon coupling influences global precipitation in geoengineering experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fyfe, J. C.; Cole, J. N. S.; Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.
2013-02-01
Collaboration pathway(s) using new tools for optimizing `operational' climate monitoring from space
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Helmuth, Douglas B.; Selva, Daniel; Dwyer, Morgan M.
2015-09-01
Consistently collecting the earth's climate signatures remains a priority for world governments and international scientific organizations. Architecting a long term solution requires transforming scientific missions into an optimized robust `operational' constellation that addresses the collective needs of policy makers, scientific communities and global academic users for trusted data. The application of new tools offers pathways for global architecture collaboration. Recent rule-based expert system (RBES) optimization modeling of the intended NPOESS architecture becomes a surrogate for global operational climate monitoring architecture(s). These rulebased systems tools provide valuable insight for global climate architectures, by comparison/evaluation of alternatives and the sheer range of trade space explored. Optimization of climate monitoring architecture(s) for a partial list of ECV (essential climate variables) is explored and described in detail with dialogue on appropriate rule-based valuations. These optimization tool(s) suggest global collaboration advantages and elicit responses from the audience and climate science community. This paper will focus on recent research exploring joint requirement implications of the high profile NPOESS architecture and extends the research and tools to optimization for a climate centric case study. This reflects work from SPIE RS Conferences 2013 and 2014, abridged for simplification30, 32. First, the heavily securitized NPOESS architecture; inspired the recent research question - was Complexity (as a cost/risk factor) overlooked when considering the benefits of aggregating different missions into a single platform. Now years later a complete reversal; should agencies considering Disaggregation as the answer. We'll discuss what some academic research suggests. Second, using the GCOS requirements of earth climate observations via ECV (essential climate variables) many collected from space-based sensors; and accepting their definitions of global coverages intended to ensure the needs of major global and international organizations (UNFCCC and IPCC) are met as a core objective. Consider how new optimization tools like rule-based engines (RBES) offer alternative methods of evaluating collaborative architectures and constellations? What would the trade space of optimized operational climate monitoring architectures of ECV look like? Third, using the RBES tool kit (2014) demonstrate with application to a climate centric rule-based decision engine - optimizing architectural trades of earth observation satellite systems, allowing comparison(s) to existing architectures and gaining insights for global collaborative architectures. How difficult is it to pull together an optimized climate case study - utilizing for example 12 climate based instruments on multiple existing platforms and nominal handful of orbits; for best cost and performance benefits against the collection requirements of representative set of ECV. How much effort and resources would an organization expect to invest to realize these analysis and utility benefits?
Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Poff, N. Leroy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres
2016-01-01
Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.
Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling
Poff, N LeRoy; Brown, Casey M; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F; Dominique, Kathleen C; Baeza, Andres
2015-01-01
Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.
Engineering a future for amphibians under a changing climate
Noreen Parks; Deanna H. Olson
2011-01-01
Climate variation exacerbates threats to amphibians such as disease and habitat loss. Yet, by and large existing species- and land-management plans give little if any consideration to climate impacts. Moreover, many management actions that do address emerging climate patterns have yet to be evaluated for feasibility and effectiveness. To help address these needs,...
Translating Climate Projections for Bridge Engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, C.; Takle, E. S.; Krajewski, W.; Mantilla, R.; Quintero, F.
2015-12-01
A bridge vulnerability pilot study was conducted by Iowa Department of Transportation (IADOT) as one of nineteen pilots supported by the Federal Highway Administration Climate Change Resilience Pilots. Our pilot study team consisted of the IADOT senior bridge engineer who is the preliminary design section leader as well as climate and hydrological scientists. The pilot project culminated in a visual graphic designed by the bridge engineer (Figure 1), and an evaluation framework for bridge engineering design. The framework has four stages. The first two stages evaluate the spatial and temporal resolution needed in climate projection data in order to be suitable for input to a hydrology model. The framework separates streamflow simulation error into errors from the streamflow model and from the coarseness of input weather data series. In the final two stages, the framework evaluates credibility of climate projection streamflow simulations. Using an empirically downscaled data set, projection streamflow is generated. Error is computed in two time frames: the training period of the empirical downscaling methodology, and an out-of-sample period. If large errors in projection streamflow were observed during the training period, it would indicate low accuracy and, therefore, low credibility. If large errors in streamflow were observed during the out-of-sample period, it would mean the approach may not include some causes of change and, therefore, the climate projections would have limited credibility for setting expectations for changes. We address uncertainty with confidence intervals on quantiles of streamflow discharge. The results show the 95% confidence intervals have significant overlap. Nevertheless, the use of confidence intervals enabled engineering judgement. In our discussions, we noted the consistency in direction of change across basins, though the flood mechanism was different across basins, and the high bound of bridge lifetime period quantiles exceeded that of the historical period. This suggested the change was not isolated, and it systemically altered the risk profile. One suggestion to incorporate engineering judgement was to consider degrees of vulnerability using the median discharge of the historical period and the upper bound discharge for the bridge lifetime period.
Tree genetic engineering and applications to sustainable forestry and biomass production.
Harfouche, Antoine; Meilan, Richard; Altman, Arie
2011-01-01
Forest trees provide raw materials, help to maintain biodiversity and mitigate the effects of climate change. Certain tree species can also be used as feedstocks for bioenergy production. Achieving these goals may require the introduction or modified expression of genes to enhance biomass production in a sustainable and environmentally responsible manner. Tree genetic engineering has advanced to the point at which genes for desirable traits can now be introduced and expressed efficiently; examples include biotic and abiotic stress tolerance, improved wood properties, root formation and phytoremediation. Transgene confinement, including flowering control, may be needed to avoid ecological risks and satisfy regulatory requirements. This and stable expression are key issues that need to be resolved before transgenic trees can be used commercially. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gonzalez, M. F.; Ilyina, T.; Sonntag, S.
2016-02-01
In order to counterbalance the consequences of climate change, different climate engineering (CE) technologies have been suggested. Nonetheless, knowledge about their mitigation potential and side-effects remains sparse. Ocean alkalinization (OA) is an ocean-based carbon dioxide removal method, that aims at enhancing the natural process of weathering by which atmospheric CO2 is absorbed and stored in the ocean via chemical sequestration. Large-scale afforestation can also boost the uptake of CO2 by terrestrial biological systems and it is commonly considered as CE method. Stratospheric sulfur injection is a solar radiation management technique that has been proposed in order to enhance the Earth's albedo, mimicking the release of sulfur particles into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions and the subsequent decrease in surface atmospheric temperatures. We explore the mitigation potential and side-effects of these CE technologies using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Our scenarios are designed in order to test under what conditions it is possible to achieve a climate state that resembles the one of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions. Direct and indirect effects of the OA method on the oceanic carbon cycle, differ strongly from those associated with afforestation and stratospheric sulfur injection. This is because they depend upon joint responses and synergies between different elements of the Earth system; thus, effects on the oceanic carbon cycle are not intuitively understood. Changes in the strength of the marine carbon sink, seawater pH and saturation state of carbonate minerals will be discussed. Additionally, collateral changes in marine biota and ocean biogeochemistry will be presented.
FY2015 Annual Report for Alternative Fuels DISI Engine Research.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sjöberg, Carl-Magnus G.
2016-01-01
Climate change and the need to secure energy supplies are two reasons for a growing interest in engine efficiency and alternative fuels. This project contributes to the science-base needed by industry to develop highly efficient DISI engines that also beneficially exploit the different properties of alternative fuels. Our emphasis is on lean operation, which can provide higher efficiencies than traditional non-dilute stoichiometric operation. Since lean operation can lead to issues with ignition stability, slow flame propagation and low combustion efficiency, we focus on techniques that can overcome these challenges. Specifically, fuel stratification is used to ensure ignition and completeness ofmore » combustion but has soot- and NOx- emissions challenges. For ultralean well-mixed operation, turbulent deflagration can be combined with controlled end-gas auto-ignition to render mixed-mode combustion that facilitates high combustion efficiency. However, the response of both combustion and exhaust emissions to these techniques depends on the fuel properties. Therefore, to achieve optimal fuel-economy gains, the engine combustion-control strategies must be adapted to the fuel being utilized.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F.
2013-12-01
Climate change will have impacts on all aspects of life. As such it is a topic that is interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary and thus requires input from a professionally diverse group of experts to be addressed effectively. This represents the next step in an evolution of how geoscientists see their work and their responsibility communicate and collaborate with other professionals to enable their findings and understanding of the Earth system to benefit society. In the late 1970's geoscience research extended beyond the traditional disciplinary perspectives to investigate the interactions of the components of the Earth system and the impacts of those interactions. Geoscience research became interdisciplinary. In the last 10 years as the reality of climate change has become more apparent,it is clear that the conversation needs to extend well beyond the geosciences to include for example agriculture, economics, psychology, architecture, urban planning, engineering and the social sciences. Climate change education and communication needs to become both interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary. This presentation will discuss the obstacles that need to be overcome to achieve interdisciplinary and transdiciplinary ways of addressing the problems and opportunities resulting from climate change, the efforts that are underway to help develop a common language and shared understanding to enable transdisciplinary solutions to societal issues in the future.
Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCusker, Kelly E.
Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated. We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment does not pose the same threat to Antarctic ice sheets. We conclude that again, reduction of greenhouse gases is the preferred strategy for avoiding climate impacts of global warming.
Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.
2013-12-01
Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate) mitigation effort. In the short term, such 'adaptive' policy responses take two forms: either investing in technologies to ensure they are available if and when aggressive mitigation is necessary; or devising policies that respond explicitly to climate change, such as a carbon tax linked to global temperature. Neither of these approaches has gained much traction in the mitigation debate because they are both seen as 'kicking the can down the road', or placing the burden of tough mitigation decisions on future politicians. We will propose that a climate policy that is explicitly contingent on the climate response should otherwise be as inflexible as possible. Ideally, the only unpredictable element of the policy should be the rate of warming attributable to rising greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming decades. Those affected by the policy should be able take a clean position on what that rate is likely to be, unaffected by speculation on what future politicians are likely to do. On this measure, relying on a carbon price or subsidizing technology development are both too flexible, however attractive they might be assuming perfectly rational implementation, because their impact depends as much or more on future decisions on taxes and subsidies as it does on future climate. We will describe a possible alternative, upstream mandatory sequestration (or 'SAFE carbon') explicitly linked to attributable warming, and discuss how it might be implemented.
Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.
Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…
It's A Gassy World: Middle School Students Investigate Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Romano, C.
2016-12-01
When middle school students are asked about our changing earth system, their responses likely include terms like global warming, climate change, and greenhouse gases. However, many students struggle to understand how it all fits together, and sometimes they hear conflicting information or myths about climate change. This activity allows students to explore the impacts of warming oceans and oceans' absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) through a student planned and carried out investigation that begins with a pre-laboratory engagement and exploration piece, includes a laboratory component, and concludes with an explanation where students analyze their data and interpret their results through the claim-evidence-reasoning framework. It's a Gassy World was developed with three-dimensional instruction in mind to introduce middle school students to the relationship between warming oceans and changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption in the oceans. Students explore disciplinary core ideas in the Earth and Space Sciences discipline of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) using crosscutting concepts and science and engineering practices. Specifically, students study CO2 as a greenhouse gas and the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 levels on global climate change by planning and carrying out their own investigations. We structured this activity in a 5E format that can take place in four to five days during a climate change unit. After piloting this activity in over 20 formal classrooms and with 5 informal education groups, we have seen how It's a Gassy World helps support inquiry in the classroom and allows students to experience crosscutting concepts and science and engineering practices in NGSS. We found that students were engaged and actively learning throughout the activity. Student work and pilot teacher feedback indicated that, through this activity, many students increased their understanding of CO2 as a greenhouse gas and recognized that warmer oceans will absorb less CO2, resulting in more CO2 in the atmosphere.
Geoengineering, Climate Harm, and Business as Usual
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jankunis, F. J.; Peacock, K.
2014-12-01
We define geoengineering (GE) as the intentional use of technology to change the planet's climate. Many people believe GE is different in kind rather than degree from any other organized activity in human history. In fact, humans caused changes in the planet's climate long before the industrial age, and all organisms engineer their environments directly or indirectly. The relevant difference between this cumulative and generally inadvertent activity and GE is the presence of intention. Now that science has revealed the extent to which humans can change the climate, however, even the continuance of Business as Usual (BAU) is, in effect, a form of intentional GE, albeit one that will cause significant climate harm, defined as effects such as sea level rise that will impact human well-being. But as with all forms of engineering, the devil is in the details: what forms of GE should be tried first? Some methods, such as large-scale afforestation, are low risk but have long-term payoffs; others, such as aerosol injection into the stratosphere, could help buy time in a warming crisis but have unknown side-effects and little long-term future. Climate change is a world-wide, inter-generational tragedy of the commons. Rational choice theory, the spatial and temporal extension of the problem, poorly fitted moral frameworks, and political maneuvering are all factors that inhibit solutions to the climate tragedy of the commons. The longer that such factors are allowed to dominate decision-making (or the lack thereof) the more likely it is that humanity will be forced to resort to riskier and more drastic forms of GE. We argue that this fact brings an additional measure of urgency to the search for ways to engineer the climate differently so as to avoid climate harm in the most lasting and least risky way.
Los Alamos Climatology 2016 Update
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bruggeman, David Alan
The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) operates a meteorology monitoring network to support LANL emergency response, engineering designs, environmental compliance, environmental assessments, safety evaluations, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, research programs, and environmental restoration. Weather data has been collected in Los Alamos since 1910. Bowen (1990) provided climate statistics (temperature and precipitation) for the 1961– 1990 averaging period, and included other analyses (e.g., wind and relative humidity) based on the available station locations and time periods. This report provides an update to the 1990 publication Los Alamos Climatology (Bowen 1990).
Preparing teachers to address climate change with project-based instructional modules
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Powers, S. E.; DeWaters, J.; Small, M.; Dhaniyala, S.
2012-12-01
Clarkson University's Project-Based Global Climate Change Education project funded by NASA has created and disseminated several instructional modules for middle and high school teachers. The modules were developed by a team of teachers and university students and faculty. Fundamental to these inquiry-based modules are questions about climate change or mitigation efforts, use of real-world data to explore historical climate changes, and review of IPCC model results to understand predictions of further changes over the next century. As an example, the Climate Connections module requires middle school students to investigate a geographic region, learn about the culture and likely carbon footprint, and then acquire and analyze data sets of historical and predicted temperature changes. The findings are then interpreted in relation to the impact of these changes on the region's culture. NOAA, NASA, IPCC and DOE databases are used extensively. The inquiry approach and core content included in these modules are well aligned with the new Framework for K-12 Science Education. The climate change science in these modules covers aspects of the disciplinary core subjects (dimension 3) and most of the cross cutting concepts (dimension 2). Our approach for inquiry and analysis are also authentic ways to include most of the science and engineering practices (dimension 1) included in the framework. Dissemination of the modules to teachers in New York State has been a joint effort by NYSERDA (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority) and Clarkson. Half-day and full-day workshops and week-long institutes provided opportunities to either introduce the modules and the basics of finding and using temperature data, or delve into the science concepts and integration of the modules into an instructional plan. A significant challenge has been identified by the workshop instructors - many science teachers lack the skills necessary to fully engage in the science and engineering practices required for dimension 1 of the Framework for K-12 Science Education. Downloading data, using a spreadsheet to plot and analyze data and calculating basic statistical parameters are new skills for many of the teachers with whom we have worked. But our teacher professional development opportunities have been effective. 23 teachers attended the intensive one or two week-long institutes. A pre- and post-climate literacy survey administered to these teachers showed statistically significant gains (p <0.01) in their climate change content knowledge and attitudes. For example, the percentage of teachers who agreed or strongly agreed to the statement "Life on earth will continue without major disruptions only if we take immediate and drastic action to reduce global warming" increased from 52% to 90% (pre, post). Changes in responses to the behavior items were not significant. Presentation of this work will include a brief introduction to the instructional modules and climate literacy assessment as a basis for identifying the prerequisite skill sets needed by science teachers to effectively incorporate new content and engineering practices through projects that require accessing and analyzing real-world climate change and mitigation data.
3-D Teaching of Climate Change: An innovative professional learning model for K-12 teachers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stapleton, M.; Wolfson, J.; Sezen-Barrie, A.
2017-12-01
In spite of the presumed controversy over the evidence for climate change, the recently released Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) for K-12 include a focus on climate literacy and explicitly use the term `climate change.' In addition to the increased focus on climate change, the NGSS are also built upon a new three dimensional framework for teaching and learning science. Three dimensional learning has students engaging in scientific and engineering practices (Dimension 1), while using crosscutting concepts (Dimension 2) to explore and explain natural phenomena using disciplinary core ideas (Dimension 3). The adoption of these new standards in many states across the nation has created a critical need for on-going professional learning as in-service science educators begin to implement both climate change instruction and three dimensional teaching and learning in their classrooms. In response to this need, we developed an innovative professional learning model for preparing teachers to effectively integrate climate change into their new curriculum and engage students in three dimensional learning. Our professional learning model utilized ideas that have emerged from recent science education research and include: a) formative assessment probes for three dimensional learning that monitor students' progress; b) collaboration with scientists with expertise in climate science to understand the domain specific ways of doing science; and c) development of a community of practice for in-service teachers to provide feedback to each other on their implementation. In this poster presentation, we will provide details on the development of this professional learning model and discuss the affordances and challenges of implementing this type of professional learning experience.
Analysis of shifts in the spatial distribution of vegetation due to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
del Jesus, Manuel; Díez-Sierra, Javier; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio
2017-04-01
Climate change will modify the statistical regime of most climatological variables, inducing changes on average values and in the natural variability of environmental variables. These environmental variables may be used to explain the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation in arid and semiarid watersheds through the use of plant optimization theories. Therefore, plant optimization theories may be used to approximate the response of the spatial distribution of vegetation to a changing climate. Predicting changes in these spatial distributions is important to understand how climate change may affect vegetated ecosystems, but it is also important for hydrological engineering applications where climate change effects on water availability are assessed. In this work, Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) is used as the plant optimization theory that describes the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation. Current climatological conditions are obtained from direct observations from meteorological stations. Climate change effects are evaluated for different temporal horizons and different climate change scenarios using numerical model outputs from the CMIP5. Rainfall estimates are downscaled by means of a stochastic point process used to model rainfall. The study is carried out for the Rio Salado watershed, located within the Sevilleta LTER site, in New Mexico (USA). Results show the expected changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation and allow to evaluate the expected variability of the changes. The updated spatial distributions allow to evaluate the vegetated ecosystem health and its updated resilience. These results can then be used to inform the hydrological modeling part of climate change assessments analyzing water availability in arid and semiarid watersheds.
The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Twine, T. E.; Snyder, P. K.; Hamilton, P.; Shepherd, M.; Stone, B., Jr.
2014-12-01
In much of the world cities are warming at twice the rate of outlying rural areas. The frequency of urban heat waves is projected to increase with climate change through the 21stcentury. Addressing the economic, environmental, and human costs of urban heat islands requires a better understanding of their behavior from many disciplinary perspectives. The goal of this four-year Urban Heat Island Network is to (1) bring together scientists studying the causes and impacts of urban warming, (2) advance multidisciplinary understanding of urban heat islands, (3) examine how they can be ameliorated through engineering and design practices, and (4) share these new insights with a wide array of stakeholders responsible for managing urban warming to reduce their health, economic, and environmental impacts. The Urban Heat Island Network involves atmospheric scientists, engineers, architects, landscape designers, urban planners, public health experts, and education and outreach experts, who will share knowledge, evaluate research directions, and communicate knowledge and research recommendations to the larger research community as well as stakeholders engaged in developing strategies to adapt to and mitigate urban warming. The first Urban Climate Institute was held in Saint Paul, Minnesota in July 2013 and focused on the characteristics of urban heat islands. Scientists engaged with local practitioners to improve communication pathways surrounding issues of understanding, adapting to, and mitigating urban warming. The second Urban Climate Institute was held in Atlanta, Georgia in July 2014 and focused on urban warming and public health. Scientists discussed the state of the science on urban modeling, heat adaptation, air pollution, and infectious disease. Practitioners informed participants on emergency response methods and protocols related to heat and other extreme weather events. Evaluation experts at the Science Museum of Minnesota have extensively evaluated both Institutes to improve future Institutes and to inform other research coordination networks. Two more Institutes are planned for 2015 and 2016 focusing on urban warming and the built environment, and education and outreach.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.
2017-12-01
The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.
Demonstration of diesel fired coolant heaters in school bus applications : final report.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2010-04-01
Engine block pre-heating can reduce fuel consumption, decrease pollution, extend engine life, and it is often necessary for reliably starting diesel engines in cold climates. This report describes the application and experience of applying 36 diesel ...
Space sensors for global change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Canavan, G.H.
1994-02-15
Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.
Will China be the first to initiate climate engineering?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moore, John C.; Chen, Ying; Cui, Xuefeng; Yuan, Wenping; Dong, Wenjie; Gao, Yun; Shi, Peijun
2016-12-01
Over the last 30 years, China has industrialized more rapidly than any other society in history and become the world's largest emitter of CO2. This has demonstrated unprecedented ability to change the socioeconomic landscape, produced great wealth, and led to some catastrophic environmental damage. This is the background that has motivated several authors to postulate that China would initiate geoengineering using solar radiation management. But will China be the first to pioneer climate engineering? The answer, we argue here, is likely to be "no!" We reach this conclusion from an analysis of the historic philosophical tradition that informs the Chinese world view, China's experience of mega-engineering projects both ancient and modern, and the policies implemented over the last 60 years. The debate on geoengineering has to-date been almost exclusively Euro-American, but China has mega-engineering experience, huge resources, and a radically different world-view that needs to be acknowledged. Furthermore we contend that these experiences can be useful internationally in helping to frame the debate on climate mitigation from the perspective of the earth as shared, multiuse and finite.
Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies
J. H. Stagge; D. E. Rosenberg; R. J. DeRose; T. M. Rittenour
2018-01-01
Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually...
Fantasy and Reality in the History of Weather and Climate Control
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleming, J. R.
2005-12-01
This presentation examines the history of large-scale weather and climate engineering since 1840, with special reference to imaginative and speculative literature and with special relevance to ethical and policy issues. Ultimate control of the weather and climate embodies both our wildest fantasies and our greatest fears. Fantasy often informs reality (and vice-versa). NASA managers know this well, as do Trekkies. The best science fiction authors typically build from the current state of a field to construct futuristic scenarios that reveal and explore the human condition. Scientists as well often venture into flights of fancy. Though not widely documented, the fantasy-reality axis is also a prominent aspect of the history of the geosciences. James Espy's proposal in the 1840s to enhance precipitation by lighting huge fires, thus stimulating convective updrafts, preceded the widespread charlatanism of the rain-makers, or so-called "pluviculturalists," in the western U.S. One hundred years later, promising discoveries in "cloud seeding" by Irving Langmuir and his associates at the General Electric Corporation rapidly devolved into unsupportable proposals and questionable practices by military and commercial rain-makers seeking to control the weather. During the Cold War, Soviet engineers also promoted a chilling vision (to Westerners) of global climate control. Recently, rather immodest proposals to "fix" a climate system perceived to be out of control have received wide circulation. In 2003 the U.S. Pentagon released a report recommending that the government should "explore geo-engineering options that control the climate." In 2004 a symposium in Cambridge, England set out to "identify, debate, and evaluate" possible, but highly controversial options for the design and construction of engineering projects for the management and mitigation of global climate change. This talk will locate the history of weather and climate modification within a long tradition of imaginative and speculative literature involving "control" of nature. The goal is the articulation of a perspective fully informed by history and the initiation of a dialogue, stimulated by this approach, that uncovers otherwise hidden values, ethical implications, social tensions, and public apprehensions.
Psychometric Principles in Measurement for Geoscience Education Research: A Climate Change Example
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Libarkin, J. C.; Gold, A. U.; Harris, S. E.; McNeal, K.; Bowles, R.
2015-12-01
Understanding learning in geoscience classrooms requires that we use valid and reliable instruments aligned with intended learning outcomes. Nearly one hundred instruments assessing conceptual understanding in undergraduate science and engineering classrooms (often called concept inventories) have been published and are actively being used to investigate learning. The techniques used to develop these instruments vary widely, often with little attention to psychometric principles of measurement. This paper will discuss the importance of using psychometric principles to design, evaluate, and revise research instruments, with particular attention to the validity and reliability steps that must be undertaken to ensure that research instruments are providing meaningful measurement. An example from a climate change inventory developed by the authors will be used to exemplify the importance of validity and reliability, including the value of item response theory for instrument development. A 24-item instrument was developed based on published items, conceptions research, and instructor experience. Rasch analysis of over 1000 responses provided evidence for the removal of 5 items for misfit and one item for potential bias as measured via differential item functioning. The resulting 18-item instrument can be considered a valid and reliable measure based on pre- and post-implementation metrics. Consideration of the relationship between respondent demographics and concept inventory scores provides unique insight into the relationship between gender, religiosity, values and climate change understanding.
The Land of the Summer People, a multidisciplinary educational experiment in flooding
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernández Arconada, S.; Wagener, T.
2015-12-01
Our changing climate brings with it unpredictable extreme weather events.Therefore working creatively with communities to generate sustainable solutions becomes vital, to be more resilient to an uncertain environmental future. The Land of the Summer People (TLOTSP) is an experiment regarding the unstable relationship between society, water and place by exploring flooding impacts in Somerset (UK). Using creative and scientific methods this multidisciplinary project applies participatory research to understand societal responses to extreme weather events, including academics, practitioners and local communities to generate an open dialogue from the local to the global (climate change). TLOTSP is a joint project between and artist and an engineer. During this project the artist developed a number of creative activities to facilitate dialogue with both engineering students and local artists working together in the case study: Flooding in Somerset Levels and Moors. Each working group generated a particular method to work in collaboration, together with locals in Somerset, while also creating an artistic outcome as a result of the process. We worked around communication looking at how disciplinary training [academics] acquire the capacity for the specialised "coding" of information, a language that detaches from the wider apprehension. We asked whether art could offer a language to facilitate the process of "decoding" knowledge. In addition, we looked at how communities affected by extreme weather events perceive and communicate the historical context, realising that responses are determined by living memory rather than archival history. This helped us to understand how short-term connections with nature have shaped the way we live today.
Uncertainties in climate assessment for the case of aviation NO
Holmes, Christopher D.; Tang, Qi; Prather, Michael J.
2011-01-01
Nitrogen oxides emitted from aircraft engines alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, perturbing the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and ozone (O3). We quantify uncertainties in radiative forcing (RF) due to short-lived increases in O3, long-lived decreases in CH4 and O3, and their net effect, using the ensemble of published models and a factor decomposition of each forcing. The decomposition captures major features of the ensemble, and also shows which processes drive the total uncertainty in several climate metrics. Aviation-specific factors drive most of the uncertainty for the short-lived O3 and long-lived CH4 RFs, but a nonaviation factor dominates for long-lived O3. The model ensemble shows strong anticorrelation between the short-lived and long-lived RF perturbations (R2 = 0.87). Uncertainty in the net RF is highly sensitive to this correlation. We reproduce the correlation and ensemble spread in one model, showing that processes controlling the background tropospheric abundance of nitrogen oxides are likely responsible for the modeling uncertainty in climate impacts from aviation. PMID:21690364
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flamand, Olivier
2017-12-01
Wind engineering problems are commonly studied by wind tunnel experiments at a reduced scale. This introduces several limitations and calls for a careful planning of the tests and the interpretation of the experimental results. The talk first revisits the similitude laws and discusses how they are actually applied in wind engineering. It will also remind readers why different scaling laws govern in different wind engineering problems. Secondly, the paper focuses on the ways to simplify a detailed structure (bridge, building, platform) when fabricating the downscaled models for the tests. This will be illustrated by several examples from recent engineering projects. Finally, under the most severe weather conditions, manmade structures and equipment should remain operational. What “recreating the climate” means and aims to achieve will be illustrated through common practice in climatic wind tunnel modelling.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2017-01-01
This Product Brief describes the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) Climate Tool (intended for use by infrastructure engineers) that provides convenient access to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective An...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten
2018-03-01
The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible
impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility
, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian
The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less
Bringing Engineering Design into High School Science Classrooms: The Heating/Cooling Unit
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Apedoe, Xornam S.; Reynolds, Birdy; Ellefson, Michelle R.; Schunn, Christian D.
2008-01-01
Infusing engineering design projects in K-12 settings can promote interest and attract a wide range of students to engineering careers. However, the current climate of high-stakes testing and accountability to standards leaves little room to incorporate engineering design into K-12 classrooms. We argue that design-based learning, the combination…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Young, Monica J.
2012-01-01
The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to better understand how female mechanical engineering faculty members' career experiences in academia affect their satisfaction. Specifically, the research considered differences in satisfaction reported by female and male mechanical engineering faculty members in terms of: (a) departmental…
Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.
Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A
2014-01-01
Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.
Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change
Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A
2014-01-01
Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data. PMID:24454550
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peacock, K.
2013-12-01
Hansen (2007), Brysse et al (2012), and Oreskes (2013) have drawn attention to the too-frequent reticence of climate scientists---the unwillingness to err on the side of predicting extreme outcomes or recommend strong action to prevent those outcomes. In Hansen's words, this may hinder 'communication with the public about dangers of global warming' and thereby lessen the chance of effective responses to this urgent threat. Scientists may be reticent about the kinds of extreme outcomes that could occur (ice sheet collapse, oceanic anoxia, killer heat waves, etc.), the probabilities of such outcomes, or the options for preventing or mitigating such outcomes. I will review the reasons, some understandable and some regrettable, for such reticence. (The latter could include the 'seepage' into professional discourse of the often-poisonous atmosphere of climate science denialism; Lewandowsky 2013.) My major aim will be to argue that scientists need a clearly defined ethical framework that coheres with the scientific ethos, and I will suggest that the place to look for such an ethical framework is in the realm of professional ethics. I will review key features of the learned professions such as medicine and engineering, where practitioners (such as emergency room physicians) are necessarily attuned to the imperative of making life-or-death decisions and recommendations in real time, under conditions of uncertainty. I hardly mean to suggest that pure science does not have a professional ethos of its own, but research science as such is not a legally constituted profession (like medicine) and it is focussed on the disinterested search for reliable knowledge above all other goals. Medicine and engineering depend upon and contribute to scientific knowledge but they are aimed at practical ends as well---the welfare of patients or protection of the public as a whole. Also, it is in the nature of engineering and other learned professions that (like pure science) they often require innovation, but in a conservative way because experimentation is not allowed---something may have to be done that no one has done before, but it has to be done right the first time. (I will briefly comment on the relevance of this point to geoengineering.) It is the duty of professionals to tell the truth 'without fear or favour' (APEO) but it is also the duty of professionals to make decisions, often without what Hansen (2007) called 'the comfort of waiting for incontrovertible confirmations.' In short, scientists may have to train themselves to think like emergency room doctors. It may seem that I am threatening to impose impossibly severe expectations on climate scientists, but I believe that they may find it comforting and steadying, in these very uncertain times, to place themselves within the long and honourable tradition of professional practice.
A commercial building energy standard for Mexico
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Huang, J.; Warner, J.L.; Wiel, S.
1998-07-01
Beginning in 1992, the Comission Nacional de Ahorro de Energia (CONAE), or Mexican National Commission for Energy Conservation, developed a national energy standard for commercial buildings, with assistance from USAID and LBNL. The first complete draft of the standard was released for public review in mid-1995. To promote public acceptance of the standard, CONAE held advisory meetings with architects, engineers, and utility representatives, and organized pubic workshops presented by the authors, with support from USAID. In response to industry comments, the standard was revised in late 1997 and is currently under review by CONAE. It is anticipated that the revisedmore » draft will be released again for final public comments in the summer of 1998. The standard will become law one year after it is finalized by CONAE and published in the federal government record. Since Mexico consists of cooling-dominated climates, the standard emphasizes energy-efficient envelope design to control solar and conductive heat gains. The authors extended DOE-2 simulation results for four climates to all of Mexico through regression analysis. Based on these results, they developed a simplified custom budget calculation approach. To facilitate the method's use, a calculation template was devised in a spreadsheet program and distributed to the public. CONAE anticipates that local engineering associations will use this spreadsheet to administer code compliance.« less
Additional risk of end-of-the-pipe geoengineering technologies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bohle, Martin
2014-05-01
Humans are engineers, even the artists who engineer the surface of the globe. Should humans endeavour to engineer the Earth to counter climate change hazards? Striving towards 'global sustainability' will require to adjust the current production and consumption patterns. Contrary to an approach of global sustainability, 'geoengineering' deploys a 'technology fix' for the same purpose. Humans are much inclined to look for technological fixes for problems because well engineered technological methods have created modern societies. Thus, it seems obvious to apply an engineering solution to climate change issues too. In particular, as air pollution causing acid rains has been reduced by cleaner combustion processes or ozone destructing chemical coolants have been replaced by other substances. Common to these approaches was to reduce inputs into global or regional systems by withholding emission, replacing substances or limiting use cases for certain substances. Thus, the selected approach was a technological fix or regulatory measure targeting the 'start of the pipe'. However applying a 'start of the pipe' approach to climate change faces the issue that mankind should reduce inputs were its hurts, namely reducing radically energy that is produced from burning fossil fuels. Capping burning of fossil fuels would be disruptive for the economic structures or the consumption pattern of the developed and developing industrialised societies. Facing that dilemma, affordable geoengineering looks tempting for some. However geoengineering technologies, which counter climate change by other means than carbon capture at combustion, are of a different nature than the technological fixes and negotiated regulatory actions, which so far have been applied to limit threats to regional and global systems. Most of the proposed technologies target other parts of the climate system but the carbon-dioxide input into the atmosphere. Therefore, many geoengineering technologies differ qualitatively from the known successes. They do not tackle the initial cause, namely the carbon-dioxide inputs that are too high. This is their additional specific risk. 'The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors', conclude Adam Corner and Nick Pidgeon (2010) when reviewing social and ethical implications of geoengineering the climate. It is to debate in that context that most geoengineering technologies are 'end of the pipe technologies', what involves an additional specific risk. Should these technologies be part of the toolbox to tackle anthropogenic climate change? Adam Corner and Nick Pidgeon 2010, Geoengineering the climate: The social and ethical implications, Environment Vol. 52.
Creating a Campus Climate That Supports Academic Excellence.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Adams, Howard G.
This paper discusses the campus climate as a critical element in the academic development of college students, with emphasis on minority and women students pursuing engineering and other technical degrees. Reforming the campus climate to make it more receptive to minority and women students requires: (1) a clear mandate from top administrators to…
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Population growth, frontier agricultural expansion, and urbanization transform the landscape and the surrounding ecosystem, affecting climate, diseases, and interactions between animals and humans. Additionally, the Earth’s oceans serve as the engine of the Earth’s climate and ecosystems, and they a...
Hydrological alteration of the Upper Nakdong river under AR5 climate change scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, S.; Park, Y.; Cha, W. Y.; Okjeong, L.; Choi, J.; Lee, J.
2016-12-01
One of the tasks faced to water engineers is how to consider the climate change impact in our water resources management. Especially in South Korea, where almost all drinking water is taken from major rivers, the public attention is focused on their eco-hydrologic status. In this study, the effect of climate change on eco-hydrologic regime in the Upper Nakdong river which is one of major rivers in South Korea is investigated using SWAT. The simulation results are measured using the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) established by U.S. Nature Conservancy. Future climate information is obtained by scaling historical series, provided by Korean Meteorological Administration RCM (KMA RCM) and four RCP scenarios. KMA RCM has 12.5-km spatial resolution in Korean Peninsula and is produced by UK Hedley Centre regional climate model HadGEM3-RA. The RCM bias is corrected by the Kernel density distribution mapping (KDDM) method. The KDDM estimates the cumulative probability density function (CDF) of each dataset using kernel density estimation, and is implemented by quantile-mapping the CDF of a present climate variable obtained from the RCM onto that of the corresponding observed climate variable. Although the simulation results from different RCP scenarios show diverse hydrologic responses in our watershed, the mainstream of future simulation results indicate that there will be more river flow in southeast Korea. The predicted impacts of hydrological alteration caused by climate change on the aquatic ecosystem in the Upper Nakdong river will be presented. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.
Fertility, immigration, and the fight against climate change.
Earl, Jake; Hickey, Colin; Rieder, Travis N
2017-10-01
Several philosophers have recently argued that policies aimed at reducing human fertility are a practical and morally justifiable way to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change. There is a powerful objection to such "population engineering" proposals: even if drastic fertility reductions are needed to prevent dangerous climate change, implementing those reductions would wreak havoc on the global economy, which would seriously undermine international antipoverty efforts. In this article, we articulate this economic objection to population engineering and show how it fails. We argue, first, that the economic objection paints an inaccurate picture of the complicated relationship between demographic change and economic growth, and second, that any untoward economic effects of fertility reduction can be mitigated with additional policies. Specifically, we argue that supplementing fertility reduction with policies that facilitate the emigration of younger people from developing nations to developed nations could allow for both global reductions in GHG emissions and continued economic stability. Further, we show that moral arguments against such unprecedented increases in immigration are unsuccessful. We conclude that population engineering is a practical and morally justifiable tool for addressing the twin evils of climate change and global poverty. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change
Shoo, L.P.; Olson, D.H.; Mcmenamin, S.K.; Murray, K.A.; Van Sluys, M.; Donnelly, M.A.; Stratford, D.; Terhivuo, J.; Merino-Viteri, A.; Herbert, S.M.; Bishop, P.J.; Corn, P.S.; Dovey, L.; Griffiths, R.A.; Lowe, K.; Mahony, M.; McCallum, H.; Shuker, J.D.; Simpkins, C.; Skerratt, L.F.; Williams, S.E.; Hero, J.-M.
2011-01-01
1. Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. 2. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were grouped under three thematic areas of intervention: (i) installation of microclimate and microhabitat refuges; (ii) enhancement and restoration of breeding sites; and (iii) manipulation of hydroperiod or water levels at breeding sites. 3. Synthesis and applications. There are currently few meaningful management actions that will tangibly impact the pervasive threat of climate change on amphibians. A host of potentially useful but poorly tested actions could be incorporated into local or regional management plans, programmes and activities for amphibians. Examples include: installation of irrigation sprayers to manipulate water potentials at breeding sites; retention or supplementation of natural and artificial shelters (e.g. logs, cover boards) to reduce desiccation and thermal stress; manipulation of canopy cover over ponds to reduce water temperature; and, creation of hydrologoically diverse wetland habitats capable of supporting larval development under variable rainfall regimes. We encourage researchers and managers to design, test and scale up new initiatives to respond to this emerging crisis.
EVALUATION OF FUEL CELL AUXILIARY POWER UNITS FOR HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS
A large number of heavy-duty trucks idle a significant amount. Heavy-duty line-haul truck engines idle about 30-50% of the time the engine is running. Drivers idle engines to power climate control devices (e.g., heaters and air conditioners) and sleeper compartment accessories (e...
Offshore Outsourcing and the Dawn of the Post-Colonial Era of Western Engineering Education
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Oberst, Bethany S.; Jones, Russel C.
2006-01-01
This paper summarizes the phenomenon of offshore outsourcing and relates it to the history and current state of engineering education and the engineering profession in Europe and the USA. In order to assess the climate affecting employment decisions by and about engineers we have used as sources mostly the serious press, with an emphasis on…
From grey to green: Efficacy of eco-engineering solutions for nature-based coastal defence.
Morris, Rebecca L; Konlechner, Teresa M; Ghisalberti, Marco; Swearer, Stephen E
2018-05-01
Climate change is increasing the threat of erosion and flooding along coastlines globally. Engineering solutions (e.g. seawalls and breakwaters) in response to protecting coastal communities and associated infrastructure are increasingly becoming economically and ecologically unsustainable. This has led to recommendations to create or restore natural habitats, such as sand dunes, saltmarsh, mangroves, seagrass and kelp beds, and coral and shellfish reefs, to provide coastal protection in place of (or to complement) artificial structures. Coastal managers are frequently faced with the problem of an eroding coastline, which requires a decision on what mitigation options are most appropriate to implement. A barrier to uptake of nature-based coastal defence is stringent evaluation of the effectiveness in comparison to artificial protection structures. Here, we assess the current evidence for the efficacy of nature-based vs. artificial coastal protection and discuss future research needs. Future projects should evaluate habitats created or restored for coastal defence for cost-effectiveness in comparison to an artificial structure under the same environmental conditions. Cost-benefit analyses should take into consideration all ecosystem services provided by nature-based or artificial structures in addition to coastal protection. Interdisciplinary research among scientists, coastal managers and engineers is required to facilitate the experimental trials needed to test the value of these shoreline protection schemes, in order to support their use as alternatives to artificial structures. This research needs to happen now as our rapidly changing climate requires new and innovative solutions to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities to an increasingly uncertain future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy
2015-04-01
The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.
Climate Change, Degradation of Permafrost, and Hazards to Infrastructure in the Circumpolar Arctic.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anisimov, O.
2001-12-01
Warming, thawing and disappearance of permafrost have accelerated in recent decades damaging engineered structures and raising public concerns. By the middle of the 21st century anthropogenic climate change may cause 2 to 3 C warming of the frozen ground, 10% to 16% reduction of the total permafrost area, 30% to 50% deepening of the active-layer thickness, and shifts between the permafrost zones due to cumulative effect of changing surface temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation. Such changes will have important implications for northern engineering and infrastructure built upon permafrost. The foundations supporting engineered structures are designed for the constant climatic conditions with construction-specific safety factor, which in the practice of the cold-region engineering varies typically from 5% to 60% with respect to the bearing capacity. In the zone of discontinuous permafrost a 2.0 C rise in air temperature may decrease the bearing capacity of frozen ground under buildings by more than a half. This may have important consequences for the infrastructure and particularly for residential buildings constructed in the permafrost zone between 1950 and 1990 in northern Russian cities Vorkuta, Yakytsk, Norylsk, and Magadan. Many of them are already weakened or damaged, which may in part be attributed to the effect of climate change. Susceptibility of permafrost to environmental hazards associated with thermokarst, ground settlement, and other destructive cryogenic processes may be crudely evaluated using the geocryological hazard index, which is the combination of the predicted for the future climate relative change in the active-layer thickness and the ground ice content. Predictive maps constructed for scenarios of climate change indicated that several population centers (Barrow, Inuvik), river terminals on the arctic coast of Russia (Salekhard, Igarka, Dudinka, Tiksi), and gas production complexes with associated infrastructure in northwest Siberia fall in the high-risk category with respect to potential environmental hazards associated with degradation of permafrost.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Qingbai; Zhang, Zhongqiong; Gao, Siru; Ma, Wei
2016-08-01
Climate warming and engineering activities have various impacts on the thermal regime of permafrost in alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Using recent observations of permafrost thermal regimes along the Qinghai-Tibet highway and railway, the changes of such regimes beneath embankments constructed in alpine meadows and steppes are studied. The results show that alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau can have a controlling role among engineering construction effects on permafrost beneath embankments. As before railway construction, the artificial permafrost table (APT) beneath embankments is not only affected by climate change and engineering activities but is also controlled by alpine ecosystems. However, the change rate of APT is not dependent on ecosystem type, which is predominantly affected by climate change and engineering activities. Instead, the rate is mainly related to cooling effects of railway ballast and heat absorption effects of asphalt pavement. No large difference between alpine and steppe can be identified regarding the variation of soil temperature beneath embankments, but this difference is readily identified in the variation of mean annual soil temperature with depth. The vegetation layer in alpine meadows has an insulation role among engineering activity effects on permafrost beneath embankments, but this insulation gradually disappears because the layer decays and compresses over time. On the whole, this layer is advantageous for alleviating permafrost temperature rise in the short term, but its effect gradually weakens in the long term.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenferna, Georges Alexandre; Russotto, Rick D.; Tan, Amanda; Gardiner, Stephen M.; Ackerman, Thomas P.
2017-06-01
In this paper, we focus on stratospheric sulfate injection as a geoengineering scheme, and provide a combined scientific and ethical analysis of climate response tests, which are a subset of outdoor tests that would seek to impose detectable and attributable changes to climate variables on global or regional scales. We assess the current state of scientific understanding on the plausibility and scalability of climate response tests. Then, we delineate a minimal baseline against which to consider whether certain climate response tests would be relevant for a deployment scenario. Our analysis shows that some climate response tests, such as those attempting to detect changes in regional climate impacts, may not be deployable in time periods relevant to realistic geoengineering scenarios. This might pose significant challenges for justifying stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection deployment overall. We then survey some of the major ethical challenges that proposed climate response tests face. We consider what levels of confidence would be required to ethically justify approving a proposed test; whether the consequences of tests are subject to similar questions of justice, compensation, and informed consent as full-scale deployment; and whether questions of intent and hubris are morally relevant for climate response tests. We suggest further research into laboratory-based work and modeling may help to narrow the scientific uncertainties related to climate response tests, and help inform future ethical debate. However, even if such work is pursued, the ethical issues raised by proposed climate response tests are significant and manifold.
Meteorology and Climate Inspire Secondary Science Students
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Maskell, Kathy; Reynolds, Ross; South, Rachel; Wood, Curtis
2010-01-01
As part of its National Science and Engineering Week activities in 2009 and 2010, the University of Reading organised two open days for 60 local key stage 4 pupils. The theme of both open days was "How do we predict weather and climate?" Making use of the students' familiarity with weather and climate, several concepts of relevance to secondary…
Low order climate models as a tool for cross-disciplinary collaboration
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newton, R.; Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Schlosser, P.
2014-12-01
Human impacts on climate are pervasive and significant and project future states cannot be projected without taking human influence into account. We recently helped convene a meeting of climatologists, policy analysts, lawyers and social scientists to discuss the dramatic loss in Arctic summer sea ice. A dialogue emerged around distinct time scales in the integrated human/natural climate system. Climate scientists tended to discuss engineering solutions as though they could be implemented immediately, whereas lags of 2 or more decades were estimated by social scientists for societal shifts and similar lags were cited for deployment by the engineers. Social scientists tended to project new climate states virtually overnight, while climatologists described time scales of decades to centuries for the system to respond to changes in forcing functions. For the conversation to develop, the group had to come to grips with an increasingly complex set of transient effect time scales and lags between decisions, changes in forcing, and system outputs. We use several low-order dynamical system models to explore mismatched timescales, ranges of lags, and uncertainty in cost estimates on climate outcomes, focusing on Arctic-specific issues. In addition to lessons regarding what is/isn't feasible from a policy and engineering perspective, these models provide a useful tool to concretize cross-disciplinary thinking. They are fast and easy to iterate through a large region of the problem space, while including surprising complexity in their evolution. Thus they are appropriate for investigating the implications of policy in an efficient, but not unrealistic physical setting. (Earth System Models, by contrast, can be too resource- and time-intensive for iteratively testing "what if" scenarios in cross-disciplinary collaborations.) Our runs indicate, for example, that the combined social, engineering and climate physics lags make it extremely unlikely that an ice-free summer ecology in the Arctic can be avoided. Further, if prospective remediation strategies are successful, a return to perennial ice conditions between one and two centuries from now is entirely likely, with interesting and large impacts on Northern economies.
A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability
Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.
2013-01-01
We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kargel, Jeffrey
2013-04-01
It is virtually universally recognized among climate and cryospheric scientists that climate and greenhouse gas abundances are closely correlated. Disagreements mainly pertain to the fundamental triggers for large fluctuations in climate and greenhouse gases during the pre-industrial era, and exactly how coupling is achieved amongst the dynamic solid Earth, the Sun, orbital and rotational dynamics, greenhouse gas abundances, and climate. Also unsettled is the climate sensitivity defined as the absolute linkage between the magnitude of climate warming/cooling and greenhouse gas increase/decrease. Important questions concern lagging responses (either greenhouse gases lagging climate fluctuations, or vice versa) and the causes of the lags. In terms of glacier and ice sheet responses to climate change, there also exist several processes causing lagging responses to climate change inputs. The simplest parameterization giving a glacier's lagging response time, τ, is that given by Jóhanneson et al. (1989), modified slightly here as τ = b/h, where b is a measure of ablation rate and h is a measure of glacier thickness. The exact definitions of τ, b, and h are subject to some interpretive license, but for a back-of-the-envelope approximation, we may take b as the magnitude of the mean ablation rate over the whole ablation area, and h as the mean glacier thickness in the glacier ablation zone. τ remains a bit ambiguous but may be considered as an exponential time scale for a decreasing response of b to a climatic step change. For some climate changes, b and h can be taken as the values prior to the climate change, but for large climatic shifts, this parameterization must be iterated. The actual response of a glacier at any time is the sum of exponentially decreasing responses from past changes. (Several aspects of glacier dynamics cause various glacier responses to differ from this idealized glacier-response theory.) Some important details relating to the retreat (or advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.
Simulation of how a geo-engineering intervention to restore arctic sea ice might work in practice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jackson, L. S.; Crook, J. A.; Forster, P.; Jarvis, A.; Leedal, D.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Vaughan, N.
2013-12-01
The declining trend in annual minimum Arctic sea ice coverage and years of more pronounced drops like 2007 and 2012 raise the prospect of an Arctic Ocean largely free of sea ice in late summer and the potential for a climate crisis or emergency. In a novel computer simulation, we treated one realisation of a climate model (HadGEM2) as the real world and tried to restore its Arctic sea ice by the rapid deployment of geo-engineering with emission of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere. The objective was to restore the annual minimum Arctic sea ice coverage to levels seen in the late twentieth century using as little geo-engineering as possible. We took intervention decisions as one might do in the real world: by committee, using a limited set of uncertain 'observations' from our simulated world and using models and control theory to plan the best intervention strategy for the coming year - so learning as we went and being thrown off course by future volcanoes and technological breakdowns. Uncertainties in real world observations were simulated by applying noise to emerging results from the climate model. Volcanic forcing of twenty-first century climate was included with the timing and magnitude of the simulated eruptions unknown by the 'geo-engineers' until after the year of the eruption. Monitoring of Arctic sea ice with the option to intervene with SO2 emissions started from 2018 and continued to 2075. Simulated SO2 emissions were made in January-May each year at a latitude of 79o N and an altitude within the range of contemporary tanker aircraft. The magnitude of emissions was chosen annually using a model predictive control process calibrated using results from CMIP5 models (excluding HadGEM2), using the simplified climate model MAGICC and assimilation of emerging annual results from the HadGEM2 'real world'. We found that doubts in the minds of the 'geo-engineers' of the effectiveness and the side effects of their past intervention, and the veracity of the models used for planning intervention were a constant feature of the simulation. As a result, their assumptions and intervention approaches were considerably revised as the simulation progressed. Side effects of the geo-engineering were difficult to explicitly determine without a control experiment. Nevertheless, we found wide spread changes in precipitation that were believed to be due to the geo-engineering - a later control experiment confirmed this belief. On termination of the SO2 geo-engineering, northern hemisphere temperatures rose sharply and Arctic sea ice area dropped dramatically. These termination effects were so large that attribution to the geo-engineering cessation was unambiguous.
Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.
Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E
2007-02-02
Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.
A Combined Ethical and Scientific Analysis of Large-scale Tests of Solar Climate Engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ackerman, T. P.
2017-12-01
Our research group recently published an analysis of the combined ethical and scientific issues surrounding large-scale testing of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI; Lenferna et al., 2017, Earth's Future). We are expanding this study in two directions. The first is extending this same analysis to other geoengineering techniques, particularly marine cloud brightening (MCB). MCB has substantial differences to SAI in this context because MCB can be tested over significantly smaller areas of the planet and, following injection, has a much shorter lifetime of weeks as opposed to years for SAI. We examine issues such as the role of intent, the lesser of two evils, and the nature of consent. In addition, several groups are currently considering climate engineering governance tools such as a code of ethics and a registry. We examine how these tools might influence climate engineering research programs and, specifically, large-scale testing. The second direction of expansion is asking whether ethical and scientific issues associated with large-scale testing are so significant that they effectively preclude moving ahead with climate engineering research and testing. Some previous authors have suggested that no research should take place until these issues are resolved. We think this position is too draconian and consider a more nuanced version of this argument. We note, however, that there are serious questions regarding the ability of the scientific research community to move to the point of carrying out large-scale tests.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reed, S.; Cavaleri, M. A.; Alonso-Rodríguez, A. M.; Kimball, B. A.; Wood, T. E.
2016-12-01
Tropical forests represent one of the planet's most active biogeochemical engines. They account for the dominant proportion of Earth's live terrestrial plant biomass, nearly one-third of all soil carbon, and exchange more CO2 with the atmosphere than any other biome. In the coming decades, the tropics will experience extraordinary changes in temperature, and our understanding of how this warming will affect biogeochemical cycling remains notably poor. Given the large amounts of carbon tropical forests store and cycle, it is no surprise that our limited ability to characterize tropical forest responses to climate change may represent the largest hurdle in accurately predicting Earth's future climate. Here we describe initial results from the world's first tropical forest field warming experiment, where forest understory plants and soils are being warmed 4 °C above ambient temperatures. This Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) was established in a rain forest in Puerto Rico to investigate the effects of increased temperature on key biological processes that control tropical forest carbon cycling, and to establish the steps that need to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to warming. In this talk we will describe the experimental design, as well as the wide range of measurements being conducted. We will also present results from the initial phase of warming, including data on how increased temperatures from infrared lamp warming affected soil moisture, soil respiration rates, a suite of carbon pools, soil microbial biomass, nutrient availability, and the exchange of elements between leaf litter and soil. These data represent a first look into tropical rain forest responses to an experimentally-warmed climate in the field, and provide exciting insight into the non-linear ways tropical biogeochemical cycles respond to change. Overall, we strive to improve Earth System Model parameterization of the pools and fluxes of water, carbon, and nutrients in tropical forested ecosystems and the data shown will highlight how these cycles are coupled and independently altered by warming.
Publications - RI 97-15D | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical
Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Coastal and River; Coastal and River Hazards; Construction Materials; Derivative; Engineering; Engineering
Stabilization of erodible slopes with geofibers and nontraditional liquid additives.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2013-05-01
Instability of erodible slopes due to extreme climate events and of permafrost slopes due degradation and thawing is a significant : engineering problem for northern transportation infrastructure. Engineers continually look for mitigation alternative...
Wohl, Ellen E.; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Zhang, Jian Yun
2000-01-01
Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fundamental driving-response interactions associated with climate variability, increasingly powerful measurement and modeling techniques make assessing climate impacts a rapidly developing frontier of science. PMID:11027321
Morand, S; Guégan, J-F
2008-08-01
This paper addresses how climate changes interact with other global changes caused by humans (habitat fragmentation, changes in land use, bioinvasions) to affect biodiversity. Changes in biodiversity at all levels (genetic, population and community) affect the functioning of ecosystems, in particular host-pathogen interactions, with major consequences in health ecology (emergence and re-emergence; the evolution of virulence and resistance). In this paper, the authors demonstrate that the biodiversity sciences, epidemiological theory and evolutionary ecology are indispensable in assessing the impact of climate changes, and also for modelling the evolution of host-pathogen interactions in a changing environment. The next step is to apply health ecology to the science of ecological engineering.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Foster, J. R.; D'Amato, A. W.; Itter, M.; Reinikainen, M.; Curzon, M.
2017-12-01
The terrestrial carbon cycle is perturbed when disturbances remove leaf biomass from the forest canopy during the growing season. Changes in foliar biomass arise from defoliation caused by insects, disease, drought, frost or human management. As ephemeral disturbances, these often go undetected and their significance to models that predict forest growth from climatic drivers remains unknown. Here, we seek to distinguish the roles of weather vs. canopy disturbance on forest growth by using dense Landsat time-series to quantify departures in mean phenology that in turn predict changes in leaf biomass. We estimated a foliar biomass index (FBMI) from 1984-2016, and predict plot-level wood growth over 28 years on 156 tree-ring monitoring plots in Minnesota, USA. We accessed the entire Landsat archive (sensors 4, 5 & 7) to compute FBMI using Google Earth Engine's cloud computing platform (GEE). GEE allows this pixel-level approach to be applied at any location; a feature we demonstrate with published wood-growth data from flux tower sites. Our Bayesian models predicted biomass changes from tree-ring plots as a function of Landsat FBMI and annual climate data. We expected model parameters to vary by tree functional groups defined by differences in xylem anatomy and leaf longevity, two traits with linkages to phenology, as reported in a recent review. We found that Landsat FBMI was a surprisingly strong predictor of aggregate wood-growth, explaining up to 80% of annual growth variation for some deciduous plots. Growth responses to canopy disturbance varied among tree functional groups, and the importance of some seasonal climate metrics diminished or changed sign when FBMI was included (e.g. fall and spring climatic water deficit), while others remained unchanged (current and lagged summer deficit). Insights emerging from these models can clear up sources of persistent uncertainty and open a new frontier for models of forest productivity.
The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Snyder, P. K.; Twine, T. E.; Hamilton, P.; Shepherd, M.; Stone, B., Jr.
2016-12-01
In much of the world cities are warming at twice the rate of outlying rural areas. The frequency of urban heat waves is projected to increase with climate change through the 21st century. Addressing the economic, environmental, and human costs of urban heat islands requires a better understanding of their behavior from many disciplinary perspectives. The goal of this four-year Urban Heat Island Network is to (1) bring together scientists studying the causes and impacts of urban warming, (2) advance multidisciplinary understanding of urban heat islands, (3) examine how they can be ameliorated through engineering and design practices, and (4) share these new insights with a wide array of stakeholders responsible for managing urban warming to reduce their health, economic, and environmental impacts. The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network involves atmospheric scientists, engineers, architects, landscape designers, urban planners, public health experts, and education and outreach experts, who will share knowledge, evaluate research directions, and communicate knowledge and research recommendations to the larger research community as well as stakeholders engaged in developing strategies to adapt to and mitigate urban warming. The first Urban Climate Institute was held in Saint Paul, MN in July 2013 and focused on the characteristics of urban heat islands. Scientists engaged with local practitioners to improve communication pathways surrounding issues of understanding, adapting to, and mitigating urban warming. The second Urban Climate Institute was held in Atlanta, Georgia in July 2014 and focused on urban warming and public health. The third Urban Climate Institute was held in Athens, GA in July 2015 and focused on urban warming and the role of the built environment. Scientists and practitioners discussed strategies for mitigation and adaptation. The fourth Institute was held in Saint Paul, MN in July 2016 and focused on putting research to practice. Evaluation experts at the Science Museum of Minnesota have extensively evaluated the Institutes to inform other research coordination networks and to identify effective ways that researchers and practitioners can share knowledge and communicate more effectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Joseph, C.; Waugh, W.; Glenn, E.; Chief, K.
2017-12-01
There are approximately 15,000 abandoned uranium mines (AUM) in the western United States, of which 500 AUMs are located in the Colorado Plateau Four-Corners region. Uranium mill tailings, referred to as legacy waste, compromise the largest volume of any category of radioactive waste in the nation. Today, the Department of Energy Legacy Management is responsible for long-term stewardship and maintenance of inactive uranium processing sites that have been remediated to prevent further migration and exposure of tailings to the environment and surrounding communities. In collaboration with the DOE-LM, I am investigating the impact of climate change and community adaptation on the long-term performance of disposal cell covers for uranium mill tailings located in Native American communities, as well as how these communities have adapted to and perceive these areas. I am interested in how abiotic engineered cell covers may be candidate sites for future conversion to vegetated evapotranspirative caps for arid to semi-arid climates. The objectives are to: 1) assess above-ground tissue of plants encroaching engineered cell covers for concentrations of uranium, radium, selenium, molybdenum, thorium, arsenic, lead, and manganese and compare them to control sites; 2) determine if above-cell plant tissue is accumulating to toxic levels that may create an exposure pathway, 3) identify climate scenarios for site locations and determine how short-and long-scale climate projections will influence spatial and temporal plant distribution for specific woody species; and 4) evaluate the risk perceptions of Hopi villages located five miles downstream of one site location. To date, risk perception and stakeholder outreach to the Hopi communities has been absent. This study will help inform how land use, water use, and sustenance practices may contribute to environmental health disparities for one of the few tribes that has maintained physical continuity within their ancestral homeland.
Design standards for U.S. transportation infrastructure : the implications of climate change
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2008-01-01
This paper examines the changes to engineering design practice that might occur given : climate-induced changes in environmental factors. A project design is separated into the : individual components that might be affected by changing environmental ...
Military Potential Test of the Model PA23-250B Fixed-Wing Instrument Trainer
1964-11-30
cabin heater was installed in the test airplane. Existing climatic conditions precluded actual tests to determine the capability of the heater to...housed within the engine contol pedestal under the engine conr- trol levers. r , aulic pressure is supplied to the control unit by an engine-driven
An Evaluation of the Pavement Condition Index Prediction Model for Rigid Airfield Pavements
1982-09-01
UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGO(I*%A Data Entotoi) The United States Army Corps of Engineers, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory...Condition . . . 31 Pavement Design/ Construction ....... . 82 Aircraft Traffic ........ .............. 82 Climate Conditions ........ ............. 84...PATTERSON AFB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 C. DATA OBTAINED FROM THE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY. .. .. 168 D
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Borman, Kathryn M., Ed.; Tyson, Will, Ed.; Halperin, Rhoda H., Ed.
2010-01-01
Based on research conducted in a three-year, mixed-method, multi-site National Science Foundation, Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Talent Expansion Program (STEP) Project, this book offers a comprehensive look into how engineering department culture and climate impacts the successful retention of female and under-represented…
Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses.
Gienapp, P; Teplitsky, C; Alho, J S; Mills, J A; Merilä, J
2008-01-01
Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative consequences of climate change. We reviewed the empirical evidence for recent microevolutionary responses to climate change in longitudinal studies emphasizing the following three perspectives emerging from the published data. First, although signatures of climate change are clearly visible in many ecological processes, similar examples of microevolutionary responses in literature are in fact very rare. Second, the quality of evidence for microevolutionary responses to climate change is far from satisfactory as the documented responses are often - if not typically - based on nongenetic data. We reinforce the view that it is as important to make the distinction between genetic (evolutionary) and phenotypic (includes a nongenetic, plastic component) responses clear, as it is to understand the relative roles of plasticity and genetics in adaptation to climate change. Third, in order to illustrate the difficulties and their potential ubiquity in detection of microevolution in response to natural selection, we reviewed the quantitative genetic studies on microevolutionary responses to natural selection in the context of long-term studies of vertebrates. The available evidence points to the overall conclusion that many responses perceived as adaptations to changing environmental conditions could be environmentally induced plastic responses rather than microevolutionary adaptations. Hence, clear-cut evidence indicating a significant role for evolutionary adaptation to ongoing climate warming is conspicuously scarce.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Short, D.; , D., Vi; Durbin, T.; Karavalakis, G.; Asa-Awuku, A. A.
2013-12-01
Passenger vehicles are known emitters of climate warming pollutants. CO2 from automobile emissions are an anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and a large contributor to global warming. Worldwide, CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles are responsible for 11% of the total CO2 emissions inventory. Black Carbon (BC), another common vehicular emission, may be the second largest contributor to global warming (after CO2). Currently, 52% of BC emissions in the U.S are from the transportation sector, with ~10% originating from passenger vehicles. The share of pollutants from passenger gasoline vehicles is becoming larger due to the reduction of BC from diesel vehicles. Currently, the majority of gasoline passenger vehicles in the United States have port- fuel injection (PFI) engines. Gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines have increased fuel economy compared to the PFI engine. GDI vehicles are predicted to dominate the U.S. passenger vehicle market in the coming years. The method of gasoline injection into the combustion chamber is the primary difference between these two technologies, which can significantly impact primary emissions from light-duty vehicles (LDV). Our study will measure LDV climate warming emissions and assess the impact on climate due to the change in U.S vehicle technologies. Vehicles were tested on a light- duty chassis dynamometer for emissions of CO2, methane (CH4), and BC. These emissions were measured on F3ederal and California transient test cycles and at steady-state speeds. Vehicles used a gasoline blend of 10% by volume ethanol (E10). E10 fuel is now found in 95% of gasoline stations in the U.S. Data is presented from one GDI and one PFI vehicle. The 2012 Kia Optima utilizes GDI technology and has a large market share of the total GDI vehicles produced in the U.S. In addition, The 2012 Toyota Camry, equipped with a PFI engine, was the most popular vehicle model sold in the U.S. in 2012. Methane emissions were ~50% lower for the GDI technology. While BC emissions were 96% higher for the GDI technology. The GDI technology had a smaller effect on CO2 emissions with a 4% rise compared to the other emissions. Additional results will discuss the emission rates converted to reflect total yearly passenger vehicular emissions in the U.S. Overall, the results show increases of global warming emissions from GDI passenger vehicle technology.
Leveraging the Novel Climates of Arboreta to Understand Tree Responses to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ettinger, A.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Joly, S.
2016-12-01
Rising global temperatures are expected to cause large-scale changes to forests, including altered mortality and recruitment rates, and dramatic changes in species composition, but exactly how tree growth will be affected by climate change is uncertain. Studies to date suggest that temperate and boreal tree responses to warming range from growing faster, slower, or at unchanged rates. Here we present an approach and preliminary findings that will improve predictions of tree responses to climate change by studying how tree traits, including phenology (e.g. the timing of leaf-out), wood density, leaf mass area, and height, relate to climate sensitivity (i.e. growth responses to annual changes in climate, Figure 1). We demonstrate how arboreta can be used to understand tree responses to climate change using 500 individuals across 65 tree species growing at the Arnold Arboretum, Boston, Massachusetts. Arboretum provide a unique opportunities for understanding temperate tree responses to climate change: they provide large collections of woody species growing together that enable traits to be studied across diverse species in a phylogenetic context. Furthermore, many species in arboreta are nonnative and have been exposed to "novel" climates that may resemble future conditions in their native distributions. We use a phylogenetic approach to understand how annual growth and climate sensitivity relate to focal traits, and asses what these findings may tell us about tree responses to climate change.
What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?
Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A
2016-01-01
Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.
Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K
2016-07-01
Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Planetary boundary layer as an essential component of the earth's climate system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor
2015-04-01
Following the traditional engineering approach proposed by Prandtl, the turbulent planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are considered in the climate science as complex, non-linear, essential but nevertheless subordinated components of the earth's climate system. Correspondingly, the temperature variations, dT - a popular and practically important measure of the climate variability, are seen as the system's response to the external heat forcing, Q, e.g. in the energy balance model of the type dT=Q/C (1). The moderation of this response by non-linear feedbacks embedded in the effective heat capacity, C, are to a large degree overlooked. The effective heat capacity is globally determined by the depth of the ocean mixed layer (on multi-decadal and longer time scales) but regionally, over the continents, C is much smaller and determined (on decadal time scales) by the depth, h, of the PBL. The present understanding of the climatological features of turbulent boundary layers is set by the works of Frankignoul & Hasselmann (1976) and Manabe & Stauffer (1980). The former explained how large-scale climate anomalies could be generated in the case of a large C (in the sea surface temperature) by the delta-correlated stochastic forcing (white noise). The latter demonstrated that the climate response to a given forcing is moderated by the depth, h, so that in the shallow PBL the signal should be significantly amplified. At present there are more than 3000 publications (ISI Web of Knowledge) which detail this understanding but the physical mechanisms, which control the boundary layer depth, and statistical relationships between the turbulent and climatological measures remain either unexplored or incorrectly attributed. In order to identify the climatic role of the PBL, the relationships between the PBL depth, h, - as the integral measure of the turbulent processes and micro-circulations due to the surface heterogeneity - and the climatic variability (variations and trends) of temperature have to be established. These relationships are necessary to complete the model (1) where the relationships between temperature variability, dT, and heat forcing, Q, are intensively studied. We demonstrate that the statistical dependences between dT and h becomes the primary factor in controlling the climate features of the earth's climate system when h is shallow (less than about 500 m). Such conditions are found in the cold (with negative surface heat balance on average) and dry (with large-scale air subsidence) climates. To get those climates and their variations correct, the climate models must be able to reproduce the shallow stably-stratified PBL. We show that the present-day CMIP-5 models are systematically and strongly biased towards producing deeper PBLs (between 20-50% deeper than observed) in this part of the parameter space which leads to large errors (around 15 K) and a damped variability of the surface temperatures under these conditions. More generally, this bias indicates that the models represent the earth's cooling processes incorrectly, which may be a part of the puzzle of the observed "hiatus" (or pause) in global warming. Frankignoul, C. & K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate models. Part 2, Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability, Tellus, 29, 289-305. Manabe, S. & R. Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research, 85(C10): 5529-5554.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
White, K. D.; Friedman, D.; Schechter, J.; Foley, P.; Mueller, C.; Baker, B.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.
2016-12-01
Observed and projected impacts of climate change are pronounced on the hydrologic cycle because of the sensitivity of hydroclimatic variables to changes in temperature. Well-documented climate change impacts to the hydrologic cycle include increases in extreme heat conditions, coastal flooding, heavy precipitation, and drought frequency and magnitude, all of which can combine in surprising ways to pose regionally varying threats to public health and safety, ecosystem functions, and the economy. Climate preparedness and resilience activities are therefore necessary for water infrastructure which provides flood risk reduction, navigation, water supply, ecosystem restoration, and hydropower services. Because this water infrastructure entails long lifetimes, up to or beyond 100 years, and significant public investment, accurate and timely information about climate impacts over both the near-and far-term is required to plan and implement climate preparedness and resilience measures. Engineers are natural translators of science into actionable information to support this type of decision-making, because they understand both the important physical processes and the processes, laws, standards, and criteria required for the planning and design of public infrastructure. Though engineers are capable of the data management activities needed to ingest, transform, and prepare climate information for use in these decisions, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has chosen to emphasize analysis of information over data management. In doing so, the USACE is developing and using web tools with visualization capabilities to streamline climate preparedness and resilience planning and implementation while ensuring repeatable analytical results nationally. Examples discussed here include calculation of sea level change, including a comparison of mean sea level and other tidal statistics against scenarios of change; detection of abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in observed hydrologic data; and evaluations of projected flow frequency and duration that help to characterize future conditions and facilitate comparisons to observed conditions.
Crops in silico: A community wide multi-scale computational modeling framework of plant canopies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Srinivasan, V.; Christensen, A.; Borkiewic, K.; Yiwen, X.; Ellis, A.; Panneerselvam, B.; Kannan, K.; Shrivastava, S.; Cox, D.; Hart, J.; Marshall-Colon, A.; Long, S.
2016-12-01
Current crop models predict a looming gap between supply and demand for primary foodstuffs over the next 100 years. While significant yield increases were achieved in major food crops during the early years of the green revolution, the current rates of yield increases are insufficient to meet future projected food demand. Furthermore, with projected reduction in arable land, decrease in water availability, and increasing impacts of climate change on future food production, innovative technologies are required to sustainably improve crop yield. To meet these challenges, we are developing Crops in silico (Cis), a biologically informed, multi-scale, computational modeling framework that can facilitate whole plant simulations of crop systems. The Cis framework is capable of linking models of gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, growth, and development in order to investigate crop response to different climate scenarios and resource constraints. This modeling framework will provide the mechanistic details to generate testable hypotheses toward accelerating directed breeding and engineering efforts to increase future food security. A primary objective for building such a framework is to create synergy among an inter-connected community of biologists and modelers to create a realistic virtual plant. This framework advantageously casts the detailed mechanistic understanding of individual plant processes across various scales in a common scalable framework that makes use of current advances in high performance and parallel computing. We are currently designing a user friendly interface that will make this tool equally accessible to biologists and computer scientists. Critically, this framework will provide the community with much needed tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the emergent implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment.
A conceptual model of plant responses to climate with implications for monitoring ecosystem change
C. David Bertelsen
2013-01-01
Climate change is affecting natural systems on a global scale and is particularly rapid in the Southwest. It is important to identify impacts of a changing climate before ecosystems become unstable. Recognizing plant responses to climate change requires knowledge of both species present and plant responses to variable climatic conditions. A conceptual model derived...
Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.
The urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been recognized, but the goal of limiting global temperature rise “well below 2 degrees” and possibly down to 1.5°C remains highly challenging, despite the large regional consequences. Slow progress in the reduction of CO2 emissions have led to the discussion of climate engineering schemes,, which remain controversial within the climate research communityIn particular, the reduction of global mean temperature via solar radiation management (SRMglob) could lead to strong regional disparities. Here we show, based on a literature review and climate model simulations, that regional land radiative management (LRMreg), a generally little-considered optionmore » in assessments of climate engineering could help reduce warming (and in particular hot extremes) in densely populated and major agricultural land regions. Several ethical issues would remain with the application of LRMreg, and its efficacy would also be limited in time and space related to crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. However, through its regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, LRMreg avoids main shortcomings associated with SRMglob. We argue therefore that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered when assessing ecosystem services and integrated in scenarios of regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation.« less
Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick
2009-08-01
Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on amore » grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.« less
Revisiting the Role of Plant Transcription Factors in the Battle against Abiotic Stress.
Khan, Sardar-Ali; Li, Meng-Zhan; Wang, Suo-Min; Yin, Hong-Ju
2018-05-31
Owing to diverse abiotic stresses and global climate deterioration, the agricultural production worldwide is suffering serious losses. Breeding stress-resilient crops with higher quality and yield against multiple environmental stresses via application of transgenic technologies is currently the most promising approach. Deciphering molecular principles and mining stress-associate genes that govern plant responses against abiotic stresses is one of the prerequisites to develop stress-resistant crop varieties. As molecular switches in controlling stress-responsive genes expression, transcription factors (TFs) play crucial roles in regulating various abiotic stress responses. Hence, functional analysis of TFs and their interaction partners during abiotic stresses is crucial to perceive their role in diverse signaling cascades that many researchers have continued to undertake. Here, we review current developments in understanding TFs, with particular emphasis on their functions in orchestrating plant abiotic stress responses. Further, we discuss novel molecular mechanisms of their action under abiotic stress conditions. This will provide valuable information for understanding regulatory mechanisms to engineer stress-tolerant crops.
Presentations - Smith, J.R. and others, 2013 | Alaska Division of
Engineering Geology Alaska Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to (1.4 M) Keywords Coastal; Coastal and River; Engineering Geology Posters and Presentations; Seward
Understanding Hydrologic Processes in Semi-Arid Cold Climates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barber, M. E.; Beutel, M.; Lamb, B.; Watts, R.
2004-12-01
Water shortages destabilize economies and ecosystems. These shortages are caused by complex interactions between climate variability, ecosystem processes, and increased demand from human activities. In the semi-arid region of the northwestern U.S., water availability during drought periods has already reached crisis levels and the problems are expected to intensify as the effects of global climate change and population growth continue to alter the supply and demand patterns. Many of the problems are critical to this region because hydropower, agriculture, navigation, fish and wildlife survival, water supply, tourism, environmental protection, and water-based recreation are vital to state economies and our way of life. In order to assess the spatial and temporal nature of hydrologic responses, consistent and comprehensive long-term data sets are needed. In response to these needs, we would like to propose the Spokane River drainage basin as a long-term hydrologic observatory. The Spokane River basin is located in eastern Washington and northern Idaho and is a tributary of the Columbia River. The watershed consists of several major surface water tributaries as well as natural and man-made lakes and reservoirs. With headwaters beginning in the Rocky Mountains, the drainage area is approximately 6,640 mi2. In addition to providing an excellent study area for examining many conventional water resource problems, the Spokane River watershed also presents a unique opportunity for investigating many of the hydrologic processes found in semi-arid cold climates. Snowfall in the watershed varies spatially between 35 inches near the mouth of the basin to over 112 inches at the headwaters. These varied hydrologic uses provide a unique opportunity to address many common challenges faced by water resource professionals. This broad array of issues encompasses science, engineering, agriculture, social sciences, economics, fisheries, and a host of other disciplines. In addition, because precipitation patterns in this semi-arid region tend to be temporally distributed, storage and global climate change issues are significant.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Landsfeld, M. F.; Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; Husak, G. J.; Friedrichs, M.; Funk, C. C.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Verdin, J. P.
2016-12-01
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) focuses on food insecurity in developing nations and provides objective, evidence-based analysis to help government decision-makers and relief agencies plan for and respond to humanitarian emergencies. The network of FEWS NET analysts and scientists require flexible, interactive tools to aid in their monitoring and research efforts. Because they often work in bandwidth-limited regions, lightweight Internet tools and services that bypass the need for downloading massive datasets are preferred for their work. To support food security analysis FEWS NET developed a custom interface for the Google Earth Engine (GEE). GEE is a platform developed by Google to support scientific analysis of environmental data in their cloud computing environment. This platform allows scientists and independent researchers to mine massive collections of environmental data, leveraging Google's vast computational resources for purposes of detecting changes and monitoring the Earth's surface and climate. GEE hosts an enormous amount of satellite imagery and climate archives, one of which is the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset (CHIRPS). CHIRPS precipitation dataset is a key input for FEWS NET monitoring and forecasting efforts. In this talk we introduce the FEWS Engine interface. We present an application that highlights the utility of FEWS Engine for forecasting the upcoming seasonal precipitation of southern Africa. Specifically, the current state of ENSO is assessed and used to identify similar historical seasons. The FEWS Engine compositing tool is used to examine rainfall and other environmental data for these analog seasons. The application illustrates the unique benefits of using FEWS Engine for on-the-fly food security scenario development.
Clarens, Andres F.; Peters, Catherine A.
2016-01-01
Abstract Environmental engineers have played a critical role in improving human and ecosystem health over the past several decades. These contributions have focused on providing clean water and air as well as managing waste streams and remediating polluted sites. As environmental problems have become more global in scale and more deeply entrenched in sociotechnical systems, the discipline of environmental engineering must grow to be ready to respond to the challenges of the coming decades. Here we make the case that environmental engineers should play a leadership role in the development of climate change mitigation technologies at the carbon-water nexus (CWN). Climate change, driven largely by unfettered emissions of fossil carbon into the atmosphere, is a far-reaching and enormously complex environmental risk with the potential to negatively affect food security, human health, infrastructure, and other systems. Solving this problem will require a massive mobilization of existing and innovative new technology. The environmental engineering community is uniquely positioned to do pioneering work at the CWN using a skillset that has been honed, solving related problems. The focus of this special issue, on “The science and innovation of emerging subsurface energy technologies,” provides one example domain within which environmental engineers and related disciplines are beginning to make important contributions at the CWN. In this article, we define the CWN and describe how environmental engineers can bring their considerable expertise to bear in this area. Then we review some of the topics that appear in this special issue, for example, mitigating the impacts of hydraulic fracturing and geologic carbon storage, and we provide perspective on emergent research directions, for example, enhanced geothermal energy, energy storage in sedimentary formations, and others. PMID:28031695
Clarens, Andres F; Peters, Catherine A
2016-10-01
Environmental engineers have played a critical role in improving human and ecosystem health over the past several decades. These contributions have focused on providing clean water and air as well as managing waste streams and remediating polluted sites. As environmental problems have become more global in scale and more deeply entrenched in sociotechnical systems, the discipline of environmental engineering must grow to be ready to respond to the challenges of the coming decades. Here we make the case that environmental engineers should play a leadership role in the development of climate change mitigation technologies at the carbon-water nexus (CWN). Climate change, driven largely by unfettered emissions of fossil carbon into the atmosphere, is a far-reaching and enormously complex environmental risk with the potential to negatively affect food security, human health, infrastructure, and other systems. Solving this problem will require a massive mobilization of existing and innovative new technology. The environmental engineering community is uniquely positioned to do pioneering work at the CWN using a skillset that has been honed, solving related problems. The focus of this special issue, on "The science and innovation of emerging subsurface energy technologies," provides one example domain within which environmental engineers and related disciplines are beginning to make important contributions at the CWN. In this article, we define the CWN and describe how environmental engineers can bring their considerable expertise to bear in this area. Then we review some of the topics that appear in this special issue, for example, mitigating the impacts of hydraulic fracturing and geologic carbon storage, and we provide perspective on emergent research directions, for example, enhanced geothermal energy, energy storage in sedimentary formations, and others.
Survey data reflecting popular opinions of the causes and mitigation of climate change.
Thompson, Jonathan E
2017-10-01
The data presented within this manuscript reports the results of a 20-question opinion survey concerning popular beliefs regarding the causes of and possible mitigation of climate change. The results and opinions from 746 survey respondents are presented. The data reflects certain misconceptions of climate change, and is useful for investigators to begin forming opinions of the public's knowledge regarding the potentially inflammatory topics of climate change, greenhouse gases, and geo-engineering.
Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stohl, A.; Aamaas, B.; Amann, M.; Baker, L. H.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Boucher, O.; Cherian, R.; Collins, W.; Daskalakis, N.; Dusinska, M.; Eckhardt, S.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Harju, M.; Heyes, C.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Hao, J.; Im, U.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Law, K. S.; Lund, M. T.; Maas, R.; MacIntosh, C. R.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Olivié, D.; Quaas, J.; Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Rumbold, S. T.; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Shine, K. P.; Skeie, R. B.; Wang, S.; Yttri, K. E.; Zhu, T.
2015-06-01
This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs: methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for Northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20 year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon emissions by about 50 and 80%, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11-12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with these ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70±0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22±0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22±0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ∼22% to this response and CH4 78%. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90% of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and black carbon (BC) specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, largely because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea-ice responses may counteract the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49) largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in Southern Europe, where the surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6-21) mm yr-1 (more than 4% of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.
Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stohl, A.; Aamaas, B.; Amann, M.; Baker, L. H.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Boucher, O.; Cherian, R.; Collins, W.; Daskalakis, N.; Dusinska, M.; Eckhardt, S.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Harju, M.; Heyes, C.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Hao, J.; Im, U.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Law, K. S.; Lund, M. T.; Maas, R.; MacIntosh, C. R.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Olivié, D.; Quaas, J.; Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Rumbold, S. T.; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Shine, K. P.; Skeie, R. B.; Wang, S.; Yttri, K. E.; Zhu, T.
2015-09-01
This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11-12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6-21) mm yr-1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.
Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard
2013-01-01
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23468879
Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard
2013-01-01
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1
Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler
2012-01-01
Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...
Batth, Rituraj; Singh, Kapil; Kumari, Sumita; Mustafiz, Ananda
2017-01-01
Abiotic stress and climate change is the major concern for plant growth and crop yield. Abiotic stresses lead to enhanced accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) consequently resulting in cellular damage and major losses in crop yield. One of the major scavengers of ROS is ascorbate (AA) which acts as first line of defense against external oxidants. An enzyme named ascorbate oxidase (AAO) is known to oxidize AA and deleteriously affect the plant system in response to stress. Genome-wide analysis of AAO gene family has led to the identification of five, three, seven, four, and six AAO genes in Oryza sativa, Arabidopsis, Glycine max, Zea mays, and Sorghum bicolor genomes, respectively. Expression profiling of these genes was carried out in response to various abiotic stresses and during various stages of vegetative and reproductive development using publicly available microarray database. Expression analysis in Oryza sativa revealed tissue specific expression of AAO genes wherein few members were exclusively expressed in either root or shoot. These genes were found to be regulated by both developmental cues as well as diverse stress conditions. The qRT-PCR analysis in response to salinity and drought stress in rice shoots revealed OsAAO2 to be the most stress responsive gene. On the other hand, OsAAO3 and OsAAO4 genes showed enhanced expression in roots under salinity/drought stresses. This study provides lead about important stress responsive AAO genes in various crop plants, which could be used to engineer climate resilient crop plants. PMID:28261251
The responsibilities of engineers.
Smith, Justin; Gardoni, Paolo; Murphy, Colleen
2014-06-01
Knowledge of the responsibilities of engineers is the foundation for answering ethical questions about the work of engineers. This paper defines the responsibilities of engineers by considering what constitutes the nature of engineering as a particular form of activity. Specifically, this paper focuses on the ethical responsibilities of engineers qua engineers. Such responsibilities refer to the duties acquired in virtue of being a member of a group. We examine the practice of engineering, drawing on the idea of practices developed by philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre, and show how the idea of a practice is important for identifying and justifying the responsibilities of engineers. To demonstrate the contribution that knowledge of the responsibilities of engineers makes to engineering ethics, a case study from structural engineering is discussed. The discussion of the failure of the Sleipner A Platform off the coast of Norway in 1991 demonstrates how the responsibilities of engineers can be derived from knowledge of the nature of engineering and its context.
Malling, Bente; Mortensen, Lene S; Scherpbier, Albert J J; Ringsted, Charlotte
2010-09-21
The educational climate is crucial in postgraduate medical education. Although leaders are in the position to influence the educational climate, the relationship between leadership skills and educational climate is unknown. This study investigates the relationship between the educational climate in clinical departments and the leadership skills of clinical consultants responsible for education. The study was a trans-sectional correlation study. The educational climate was investigated by a survey among all doctors (specialists and trainees) in the departments. Leadership skills of the consultants responsible for education were measured by multi-source feedback scores from heads of departments, peer consultants, and trainees. Doctors from 42 clinical departments representing 21 specialties participated. The response rate of the educational climate investigation was moderate 52% (420/811), Response rate was high in the multisource-feedback process 84.3% (420/498). The educational climate was scored quite high mean 3.9 (SD 0.3) on a five-point Likert scale. Likewise the leadership skills of the clinical consultants responsible for education were considered good, mean 5.4 (SD 0.6) on a seven-point Likert scale. There was no significant correlation between the scores concerning the educational climate and the scores on leadership skills, r = 0.17 (p = 0.29). This study found no relation between the educational climate and the leadership skills of the clinical consultants responsible for postgraduate medical education in clinical departments with the instruments used. Our results indicate that consultants responsible for education are in a weak position to influence the educational climate in the clinical department. Further studies are needed to explore, how heads of departments and other factors related to the clinical organisation could influence the educational climate.
Regional Interdependence in Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stacey, M. T.; Lubell, M.; Hummel, M.; Wang, R. Q.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Herdman, L.; Pozdnukhov, A.; Sheehan, M.
2017-12-01
Projections of sea level rise may differ in the pace of change, but there is clear consensus that coastal communities will be facing more frequent and severe flooding events in the coming century. As communities adapt to future conditions, infrastructure systems will be developed, modified and abandoned, with important consequences for services and resilience. Whether action or inaction is pursued, the decisions made by an individual community regarding a single infrastructure system have implications that extend spatially and temporally due to geographic and infrastructure system interactions. At the same time, there are a number of barriers to collective or coordinated action that inhibit regional solutions. This interplay between local actions and regional responses is one of the great challenges facing decision-makers grappling with both local and regional climate-change adaptation. In this talk, I present case studies of the San Francisco Bay Area that examine how shoreline infrastructure, transporation sytems and decision-making networks interact to define the regional response to local actions and the local response to regional actions. I will characterize the barriers that exist to regional solutions, and characterize three types of interdependence that may motivate decision-makers to overcome those barriers. Using these examples, I will discuss the importance of interdisciplinary analyses that integrate the natural sciences, engineering and the social science to climate change adaptation more generally.
Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina
2014-01-01
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk
2014-01-01
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285
Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.
Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk
2014-03-04
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Smaill, Chris R.
2010-01-01
In the current climate of shortages of high-quality engineering graduates, exacerbated by reduced high school enrollments in physics and mathematics, engineering faculties are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of K-12 outreach programs. Such programs can result in students being better prepared for and better informed about engineering…
Nutrition and Healthy Eating: How Much Water Should You Drink Each Day?
... temperate climate need? The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine determined that an adequate daily fluid ... Electrolytes and water. The National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. http://www.nationalacademies.org/hmd/Activities/ ...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Milner, G. A.
2017-12-01
Climate research and information continues to emerge at a rapid pace from the academic and scientific community. Decisions being made today by planners, engineers and staff across the Province of Ontario rely on science and information to plan and build our systems for the long term. Of course, as scientific information evolves continuously to produce lessons learned and new evidence, on the ground decisions often become entrenched in outdated information and need updating. Given this, bridging the gap between research to policy, and research to practice is of critical importance as the Province of Ontario upgrades its infrastructure, plans for long term growth in population within the Great Lakes Basin, and manages its natural systems and resources responsibly. The Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) is an interdisciplinary network of academics and practitioners established in 2011 in the province that works to mobilize climate research findings towards building capacity, inspiring climate action, and training end-users with the latest science. The OCC has collaborated with more than 39 organizations throughout Ontario and across Canada, including government agencies at all levels (local, provincial and federal), non-profit organizations and private sector companies. This presentation will describe the foundations of climate action in Ontario, Canada including the landscape of climate adaptation practitioners from both public and private organizations. Furthermore, this presentation will feature lessons learned from the OCC network, including: 1) What comprises effective partnerships to undertake climate change adaptation planning for cities; 2) How to build the foundation for capacity at agencies with limited resources or expertise in the climate change field; and 3) How to successfully mobilize complex climate data for end-users to produce usable tools (through a case study research project). The latter will present findings from a two-year research project undertaken with OCC and the City of Vaughan, just northwest of Toronto, which examined vulnerability and risks of climate change to the city's stormwater infrastructure system and produced key tools and information for managers to begin building climate resilience into their planning and operations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berry Bertram, Kathryn
2011-12-01
The Geophysical Institute (GI) Framework for Professional Development was designed to prepare culturally responsive teachers of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). Professional development programs based on the framework are created for rural Alaskan teachers who instruct diverse classrooms that include indigenous students. This dissertation was written in response to the question, "Under what circumstances is the GI Framework for Professional Development effective in preparing culturally responsive teachers of science, technology, engineering, and math?" Research was conducted on two professional development programs based on the GI Framework: the Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP) and the Science Teacher Education Program (STEP). Both programs were created by backward design to student learning goals aligned with Alaska standards and rooted in principles of indigenous ideology. Both were created with input from Alaska Native cultural knowledge bearers, Arctic scientists, education researchers, school administrators, and master teachers with extensive instructional experience. Both provide integrated instruction reflective of authentic Arctic research practices, and training in diverse methods shown to increase indigenous student STEM engagement. While based on the same framework, these programs were chosen for research because they offer distinctly different training venues for K-12 teachers. STEP offered two-week summer institutes on the UAF campus for more than 175 teachers from 33 Alaska school districts. By contrast, ACMP served 165 teachers from one rural Alaska school district along the Bering Strait. Due to challenges in making professional development opportunities accessible to all teachers in this geographically isolated district, ACMP offered a year-round mix of in-person, long-distance, online, and local training. Discussion centers on a comparison of the strategies used by each program to address GI Framework cornerstones, on methodologies used to conduct program research, and on findings obtained. Research indicates that in both situations the GI Framework for Professional Development was effective in preparing culturally responsive STEM teachers. Implications of these findings and recommendations for future research are discussed in the conclusion.
Redefine Water Infrastructure Adaptation to a Nonstationary Climate (Editorial)
The statement “Climate Stationarity is Dead” by Milly et al. (2008) stresses the need to evaluate and when necessary, incorporate non-stationary hydroclimatic changes into water resources and infrastructure planning and engineering. Variations of this theme echo in several other ...
Water Resources and Supply Adaptation: A paradigm Shifting for Future Climate?
Climate change adds another layer of complexity in planning, engineering and management of water resources and urban water infrastructures. Yet our current practice is confined to the traditional approach that evaluates developmental scenarios and their sustainability mostly by a...
A New Handbook for the Development of Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.
2008-01-01
A new NASA document entitled "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development (NASA-HDBK-1001A) has been developed. The Handbook provides terrestrial environment information, data bases, models, recommendations, etc. for use in the design, development, trade studies, testing, and mission analyses for space (or launch) .vehicles. This document is organized into fourteen specific natural environment disciplines of which some are winds, atmospheric models, thermal radiation, precipitation-for-icing, cloud cover, atmospheric electricity, geologic hazards, toxic chemical release by propulsion systems, and sea state. Atmospheric phenomena play a significant role in the design and flight of aerospace vehicles and in the integrity of the associated aerospace systems and structures. Environmental design criteria guidelines in this document are based on measurements and observations of atmospheric and climatic phenomena relative to various aerospace development, operational, and vehicle launch locations. The natural environment criteria guidelines data presented in this Handbook were formulated based on discussions with and requests from engineers involved in aerospace vehicle development and operations. Therefore, they represent responses to actual engineering problems and are not just a general compilation of environmental data. The Handbook addresses the basis for the information presented, the interpretations of the terrestrial environment guideline given in the Handbook, and its application to the development of aerospace vehicle design requirements. Specific examples of the Handbook content and associated "lessons lenmed" are given in this paper.
A New Handbook for the Development of Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.
2008-01-01
A new NASA document entitled "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development (NASA-HDBK-IOO1A) has been developed. The Handbook provides terrestrial environment information, data bases, models, recommendations, etc. for use in the design, development, trade studies, testing, and mission analyses for space (or launch) vehicles. This document is organized into fourteen specific natural environment disciplines of which some are winds, atmospheric models, thermal radiation, precipitation-for-icing, cloud cover, atmospheric electricity, geologic hazards, toxic chemical release by propulsion systems, and sea state. Atmospheric phenomena play a significant role in the design and flight of aerospace vehicles and in the integrity of the associated aerospace systems and structures. Environmental design criteria guidelines in this document are based on measurements and observations of atmospheric and climatic phenomena relative to various aerospace development, operational, and vehicle launch locations. The natural environment criteria guidelines data presented in this Handbook were formulated based on discussions with and requests from engineers involved in aerospace vehicle development and operations. Therefore, they represent responses to actual engineering problems and are not just a general compilation of environmental data. The Handbook addresses the basis for the information presented, the interpretations of the terrestrial environment guideline given in the Handbook, and its application to the development of aerospace vehicle design requirements. Specific examples of the Handbook content and associated "lessons lenmed" are given in this paper.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dai, Yuanshun; Baek, Seung H.; Garcia-Diza, Alberto
2012-01-01
This paper designs a comprehensive approach based on the engineering machine/system concept, to model, analyze, and assess the level of CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, which is an important factor in understanding changes in global climate. The focus of this article is on spatial patterns and on the correlation between levels of CO2 fluxes and a variety of influencing factors in eco-environments. The engineering/machine concept used is a system protocol that includes the sequential activities of design, test, observe, and model. This concept is applied to explicitly include various influencing factors and interactions associated with CO2 fluxes.more » To formulate effective models of a large and complex climate system, this article introduces a modeling technique that will be referred to as Stochastic Filtering Analysis of Variance (SFANOVA). The CO2 flux data observed from some sites of AmeriFlux are used to illustrate and validate the analysis, prediction and globalization capabilities of the proposed engineering approach and the SF-ANOVA technology. The SF-ANOVA modeling approach was compared to stepwise regression, ridge regression, and neural networks. The comparison indicated that the proposed approach is a valid and effective tool with similar accuracy and less complexity than the other procedures.« less
Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations
Franks, Steven J; Weber, Jennifer J; Aitken, Sally N
2014-01-01
As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change. PMID:24454552
Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine
Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.
2009-01-01
This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.
Climate Change and Water Working Group - User Needs to Manage Hydrclimatic Risk from Days to Decades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L. D.; Werner, K.; Wood, A.; White, K. D.
2012-12-01
The Federal Climate Change Water Working Group (CCAWWG) provides engineering and scientific collaborations in support of water management. CCAWWG objectives include building working relationships across federal science and water management agencies, provide a forum to share expertise and leverage resources, develop education and training forums, to work with water managers to understand scientific needs and to foster collaborative efforts across the Federal and non-Federal water management and science communities to address those needs. Identifying and addressing water management needs has been categorized across two major time scales: days to a decade and multi-decadal, respectively. These two time periods are termed "Short-Term" and "Long-Term" in terms of the types of water management decisions they support where Short-Term roughly correlates to water management operations and Long-Term roughly correlates to planning activities. This presentation will focus on portraying the identified water management user needs across these two time periods. User Needs for Long-Term planning were identified in the 2011 Reclamation and USACE "Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management: User Needs for Improving Tools and Information." User needs for Long-Term planning are identified across eight major categories: Summarize Relevant Literature, Obtain Climate Change Information, Make Decisions About How to Use the Climate Change Information, Assess Natural Systems Response, Assess Socioeconomic and Institutional Response, Assess System Risks and Evaluate Alternatives, Assess and Characterize Uncertainties, and Communicating Results and Uncertainties to Decisionmakers. User Needs for Short-Term operations are focused on needs relative to available or desired monitoring and forecast products from the hydroclimatic community. These needs are presenting in the 2012 USACE, Reclamation, and NOAA - NWS "Short-Term Water Management Decisions: User Needs for Improved Climate, Weather, and Hydrologic Information." Identified needs are presented in four categories: Monitoring, Forecasting, Understanding on Product Relationships and Utilization in Water Management, and Information Services Enterprise. These needs represent everything from continuation and enhancement of in situ monitoring products such as USGS water gages and precipitation networks to supporting product maintenance and evolution to accommodate newly developed technologies.
Human Health Effects of Ozone Depletion From Stratospheric Aircraft
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wey, Chowen (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
This report presents EPA's initial response to NASA's request to advise on potential environmental policy issues associated with the future development of supersonic flight technologies. Consistent with the scope of the study to which NASA and EPA agreed, EPA has evaluated only the environmental concerns related to the stratospheric ozone impacts of a hypothetical HSCT fleet, although recent research indicates that a fleet of HSCT is predicted to contribute to climate warming as well. This report also briefly describes the international and domestic institutional frameworks established to address stratospheric ozone depletion, as well as those established to control pollution from aircraft engine exhaust emissions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.
2008-12-01
Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.
Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes.
Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Gómez-Dans, Jose L; Bradstock, Ross A
2013-04-16
Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes--size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent--and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict.
Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes
Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E. R.; Gómez-Dans, Jose L.; Bradstock, Ross A.
2013-01-01
Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes—size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent—and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict. PMID:23559374
The atmospheric heat engine response to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pauluis, O. M.
2014-12-01
Moist convection is characterized by complex interactions between dynamics and thermodynamics. As air parcels within the atmosphere, they experience multiple thermodynamic transformations, such as compression and expansion, diabatic heating and cooling, condensation and mixing. These transformations correspond to those of a heat engine that produces kinetic energy while transporting energy from a warm source to a colder sink. This atmospheric heat engine is however directly affected by moist processes. First, falling precipitation acts as a break on the circulation by dissipating a significant amount of kinetic energy. Second, evaporation of unsaturated water and diffusion of water vapor are irrevesible processes that also reduce the amount of work that can be produced. An important challenge is to quantify the impacts that these two effects have on the generation of kinetic energy. Here, I will introduce a new technique - the Mean Air Flow As Lagragian Dynamics Approximation (MAFALDA) - that can be used to systematically analyze the thermodynamic behavior of complex atmospheric flows. This approach relies on sorting the upward mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of the air parcels to obtain an isentropic streamfunction. This streamfunction is then used to determine the thermodynamic evolution of air parcels as they move through the atmosphere. This approach is applied to analyze how convective systems would behave in a warmer climate. It is shown that an increase in atmospheric temperature lead to a significant increase of the amount of kinetic energy that is produced per unit of mass of air transported. At the same time, the total generation of kinetic energy is only slightly affected. Taken together, these findings imply that, in a warming atmosphere, the number of intense convective events will be reduced, while their intensity should increase. I will also discuss the new possibility of systematically studying the thermodynamic transformation in atmospheric models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cordero, E.; Centeno, D.
2015-12-01
Over the last four years, the Green Ninja Project (GNP) has been developing educational media (e.g., videos, games and online lessons) to help motivate student interest and engagement around climate science and solutions. Inspired by the new emphasis in NGSS on climate change, human impact and engineering design, the GNP is developing a technology focused, integrative, and yearlong science curriculum focused around solutions to climate change. Recognizing the importance of teacher training on the successful implementation of NGSS, we have also integrated teacher professional development into our curriculum. During the presentation, we will describe the design philosophy around our middle school curriculum and share data from a series of classes that are piloting the curriculum during Fall 2015. We will also share our perspectives on how data, media creation and engineering can be used to create educational experiences that model the type of 'three-dimensional learning' encouraged by NGSS.
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
2017-10-01
Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be. The consensus on the 'likely' range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C today is the same as given by Jule Charney in 1979, but now it is based on quantitative evidence from across the climate system and throughout climate history. The quest to constrain climate sensitivity has revealed important insights into the timescales of the climate system response, natural variability and limitations in observations and climate models, but also concerns about the simple concepts underlying climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, which opens avenues to better understand and constrain the climate response to forcing. Estimates of the transient climate response are better constrained by observed warming and are more relevant for predicting warming over the next decades. Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end.
An overview of patient safety climate in the VA.
Hartmann, Christine W; Rosen, Amy K; Meterko, Mark; Shokeen, Priti; Zhao, Shibei; Singer, Sara; Falwell, Alyson; Gaba, David M
2008-08-01
To assess variation in safety climate across VA hospitals nationally. Data were collected from employees at 30 VA hospitals over a 6-month period using the Patient Safety Climate in Healthcare Organizations survey. We sampled 100 percent of senior managers and physicians and a random 10 percent of other employees. At 10 randomly selected hospitals, we sampled an additional 100 percent of employees working in units with intrinsically higher hazards (high-hazard units [HHUs]). Data were collected using an anonymous survey design. We received 4,547 responses (49 percent response rate). The percent problematic response--lower percent reflecting higher levels of patient safety climate--ranged from 12.0-23.7 percent across hospitals (mean=17.5 percent). Differences in safety climate emerged by management level, clinician status, and workgroup. Supervisors and front-line staff reported lower levels of safety climate than senior managers; clinician responses reflected lower levels of safety climate than those of nonclinicians; and responses of employees in HHUs reflected lower levels of safety climate than those of workers in other areas. This is the first systematic study of patient safety climate in VA hospitals. Findings indicate an overall positive safety climate across the VA, but there is room for improvement.
2016-08-21
USER GUIDE Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska SERDP Project...Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...forecast landscape change in response to projected changes in climate , fire regime, and fire management. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF
Response-Guided Community Detection: Application to Climate Index Discovery
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bello, Gonzalo; Angus, Michael; Pedemane, Navya
Discovering climate indices-time series that summarize spatiotemporal climate patterns-is a key task in the climate science domain. In this work, we approach this task as a problem of response-guided community detection; that is, identifying communities in a graph associated with a response variable of interest. To this end, we propose a general strategy for response-guided community detection that explicitly incorporates information of the response variable during the community detection process, and introduce a graph representation of spatiotemporal data that leverages information from multiple variables. We apply our proposed methodology to the discovery of climate indices associated with seasonal rainfall variability.more » Our results suggest that our methodology is able to capture the underlying patterns known to be associated with the response variable of interest and to improve its predictability compared to existing methodologies for data-driven climate index discovery and official forecasts.« less
Climatic and psychosocial risks of heat illness incidents on construction site.
Jia, Yunyan Andrea; Rowlinson, Steve; Ciccarelli, Marina
2016-03-01
The study presented in this paper aims to identify prominent risks leading to heat illness in summer among construction workers that can be prioritised for developing effective interventions. Samples are 216 construction workers' cases at the individual level and 26 construction projects cases at the organisation level. A grounded theory is generated to define the climatic heat and psychosocial risks and the relationships between risks, timing and effectiveness of interventions. The theoretical framework is then used to guide content analysis of 36 individual onsite heat illness cases to identify prominent risks. The results suggest that heat stress risks on construction site are socially constructed and can be effectively managed through elimination at supply chain level, effective engineering control, proactive control of the risks through individual interventions and reactive control through mindful recognition and response to early symptoms. The role of management infrastructure as a base for effective interventions is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.
Campbell, Ryan C; Wilson, Denise
2017-04-01
This paper provides an empirically informed perspective on the notion of responsibility using an ethical framework that has received little attention in the engineering-related literature to date: ethics of care. In this work, we ground conceptual explorations of engineering responsibility in empirical findings from engineering student's writing on the human health and environmental impacts of "backyard" electronic waste recycling/disposal. Our findings, from a purposefully diverse sample of engineering students in an introductory electrical engineering course, indicate that most of these engineers of tomorrow associated engineers with responsibility for the electronic waste (e-waste) problem in some way. However, a number of responses suggested attempts to deflect responsibility away from engineers towards, for example, the government or the companies for whom engineers work. Still other students associated both engineers and non-engineers with responsibility, demonstrating the distributed/collective nature of responsibility that will be required to achieve a solution to the global problem of excessive e-waste. Building upon one element of a framework for care ethics adopted from the wider literature, these empirical findings are used to facilitate a preliminary, conceptual exploration of care-ethical responsibility within the context of engineering and e-waste recycling/disposal. The objective of this exploration is to provide a first step toward understanding how care-ethical responsibility applies to engineering. We also hope to seed dialogue within the engineering community about its ethical responsibilities on the issue. We conclude the paper with a discussion of its implications for engineering education and engineering ethics that suggests changes for educational policy and the practice of engineering.
Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.
Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K
2010-07-12
Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.
Idling Reduction for Personal Vehicles
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
2015-05-07
Fact sheet on reducing engine idling in personal vehicles. Idling your vehicle--running your engine when you're not driving it--truly gets you nowhere. Idling reduces your vehicle's fuel economy, costs you money, and creates pollution. Idling for more than 10 seconds uses more fuel and produces more emissions that contribute to smog and climate change than stopping and restarting your engine does.
Peck, Jay; Oluwole, Oluwayemisi O; Wong, Hsi-Wu; Miake-Lye, Richard C
2013-03-01
To provide accurate input parameters to the large-scale global climate simulation models, an algorithm was developed to estimate the black carbon (BC) mass emission index for engines in the commercial fleet at cruise. Using a high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) global sensitivity analysis, relevant engine specification/operation parameters were ranked, and the most important parameters were selected. Simple algebraic formulas were then constructed based on those important parameters. The algorithm takes the cruise power (alternatively, fuel flow rate), altitude, and Mach number as inputs, and calculates BC emission index for a given engine/airframe combination using the engine property parameters, such as the smoke number, available in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) engine certification databank. The algorithm can be interfaced with state-of-the-art aircraft emissions inventory development tools, and will greatly improve the global climate simulations that currently use a single fleet average value for all airplanes. An algorithm to estimate the cruise condition black carbon emission index for commercial aircraft engines was developed. Using the ICAO certification data, the algorithm can evaluate the black carbon emission at given cruise altitude and speed.
Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.
Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine
2017-07-01
How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Savoy, Julia N.; Kaatz, Anna; Lee, You-Geon; Filut, Amarette; Carnes, Molly
2017-01-01
Abstract Background: Many studies find that female faculty in academic medicine, science, and engineering experience adverse workplace climates. This study longitudinally investigates whether department climate is associated with future research productivity and whether the associations are stronger for female than male faculty. Method: Two waves of a faculty climate survey, institutional grant records, and publication records were collected for 789 faculties in academic medicine, science, and engineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison between 2000 and 2010. Research productivity was measured as Number of Publications and Number of Grants awarded, and department climate was measured with scales for professional interactions, department decision-making practices, climate for underrepresented groups, and work/life balance. Ordinary least squares and negative binomial regression methods were used to assess gender differences in productivity, influences of department climate on productivity, and gender differences in effects of climate on productivity. Results: Female faculty published fewer articles and were awarded fewer grants in the baseline period, but their productivity did not differ from male faculty on these measures in subsequent years. Number of Publications was positively affected by professional interactions, but negatively affected by positive work/life balance. Number of Grants awarded was positively affected by climate for underrepresented groups. These main effects did not differ by gender; however, some three-way interactions illuminated how different aspects of department climate affected productivity differently for men and women in specific situations. Conclusions: In perhaps the first study to assess the longitudinal impact of department climate on faculty research productivity, positive department climate is associated with significantly greater productivity for all faculty—women and men. However, some positive aspects of climate (specifically, work/life balance) may be associated with lower productivity for some female faculty at specific career periods. These findings suggest that departments that wish to increase grants and publications would be wise to foster a positive workplace climate. PMID:28375751
Sheridan, Jennifer; Savoy, Julia N; Kaatz, Anna; Lee, You-Geon; Filut, Amarette; Carnes, Molly
2017-05-01
Many studies find that female faculty in academic medicine, science, and engineering experience adverse workplace climates. This study longitudinally investigates whether department climate is associated with future research productivity and whether the associations are stronger for female than male faculty. Two waves of a faculty climate survey, institutional grant records, and publication records were collected for 789 faculties in academic medicine, science, and engineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison between 2000 and 2010. Research productivity was measured as Number of Publications and Number of Grants awarded, and department climate was measured with scales for professional interactions, department decision-making practices, climate for underrepresented groups, and work/life balance. Ordinary least squares and negative binomial regression methods were used to assess gender differences in productivity, influences of department climate on productivity, and gender differences in effects of climate on productivity. Female faculty published fewer articles and were awarded fewer grants in the baseline period, but their productivity did not differ from male faculty on these measures in subsequent years. Number of Publications was positively affected by professional interactions, but negatively affected by positive work/life balance. Number of Grants awarded was positively affected by climate for underrepresented groups. These main effects did not differ by gender; however, some three-way interactions illuminated how different aspects of department climate affected productivity differently for men and women in specific situations. In perhaps the first study to assess the longitudinal impact of department climate on faculty research productivity, positive department climate is associated with significantly greater productivity for all faculty-women and men. However, some positive aspects of climate (specifically, work/life balance) may be associated with lower productivity for some female faculty at specific career periods. These findings suggest that departments that wish to increase grants and publications would be wise to foster a positive workplace climate.
Computer Tutorial "Higher Mathematics" for Engineering Specialties.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Slivina, Natalia A.; Krivosheev, Anatoly O.; Fomin, Sergey S.
This paper presents a CD-ROM computer tutorial titled "Higher Mathematics," that contains 17 educational mathematical programs and is intended for use in Russian university engineering education. The first section introduces the courseware climate in Russia and outlines problems with commercially available universal mathematical…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hoisington, Cynthia; Winokur, Jeff
2015-01-01
Early childhood educators have long debated how science should be introduced and taught to preschoolers. In the current Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education climate, this conversation has expanded to include the role of engineering in the preschool curriculum. Instructors and coaches in the professional development…
Deterministic or Probabilistic - Robustness or Resilience: How to Respond to Climate Change?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Plag, H.; Earnest, D.; Jules-Plag, S.
2013-12-01
Our response to climate change is dominated by a deterministic approach that emphasizes the interaction between only the natural and the built environment. But in the non-ergodic world of unprecedented climate change, social factors drive recovery from unforeseen Black Swans much more than natural or built ones. Particularly the sea level rise discussion focuses on deterministic predictions, accounting for uncertainties in major driving processes with a set of forcing scenarios and public deliberations on which of the plausible trajectories is most likely. Science focuses on the prediction of future climate change, and policies focus on mitigation of both climate change itself and its impacts. The deterministic approach is based on two basic assumptions: 1) Climate change is an ergodic process; 2) The urban coast is a robust system. Evidence suggests that these assumptions may not hold. Anthropogenic changes are pushing key parameters of the climate system outside of the natural range of variability from the last 1 Million years, creating the potential for environmental Black Swans. A probabilistic approach allows for non-ergodic processes and focuses more on resilience, hence does not depend on the two assumptions. Recent experience with hurricanes revealed threshold limitations of the built environment of the urban coast, which, once exceeded, brought to the forefront the importance of the social fabric and social networking in evaluating resilience. Resilience strongly depends on social capital, and building social capital that can create resilience must be a key element in our response to climate change. Although social capital cannot mitigate hazards, social scientists have found that communities rich in strong norms of cooperation recover more quickly than communities without social capital. There is growing evidence that the built environment can affect the social capital of a community, for example public health and perceptions of public safety. This suggests an intriguing hypothesis: disaster risk reduction programs need to account for whether they also facilitate the public trust, cooperation, and communication needed to recover from a disaster. Our work in the Hampton Roads area, where the probability of hazardous flooding and inundation events exceeding the thresholds of the infrastructure is high, suggests that to facilitate the paradigm shift from the deterministic to a probabilistic approach, natural sciences have to focus on hazard probabilities, while engineering and social sciences have to work together to understand how interactions of the built and social environments impact robustness and resilience. The current science-policy relationship needs to be augmented by social structures that can learn from previous unexpected events. In this response to climate change, science does not have the primary goal to reduce uncertainties and prediction errors, but rather to develop processes that can utilize uncertainties and surprises to increase robustness, strengthen resilience, and reduce fragility of the social systems during times when infrastructure fails.
The EPSRC's Policy of Responsible Innovation from a Trading Zones Perspective.
Murphy, Joseph; Parry, Sarah; Walls, John
Responsible innovation (RI) is gathering momentum as an academic and policy debate linking science and society. Advocates of RI in research policy argue that scientific research should be opened up at an early stage so that many actors and issues can steer innovation trajectories. If this is done, they suggest, new technologies will be more responsible in different ways, better aligned with what society wants, and mistakes of the past will be avoided. This paper analyses the dynamics of RI in policy and practice and makes recommendations for future development. More specifically, we draw on the theory of 'trading zones' developed by Peter Galison and use it to analyse two related processes: (i) the development and inclusion of RI in research policy at the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC); (ii) the implementation of RI in relation to the Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) project. Our analysis reveals an RI trading zone comprised of three quasi-autonomous traditions of the research domain - applied science, social science and research policy. It also shows how language and expertise are linking and coordinating these traditions in ways shaped by local conditions and the wider context of research. Building on such insights, we argue that a sensible goal for RI policy and practice at this stage is better local coordination of those involved and we suggest ways how this might be achieved.
Du, Yanjun; Chen, Jingru; Willis, Charles G; Zhou, Zhiqiang; Liu, Tong; Dai, Wujun; Zhao, Yuan; Ma, Keping
2017-09-01
Climate change has resulted in major changes in plant phenology across the globe that includes leaf-out date and flowering time. The ability of species to respond to climate change, in part, depends on their response to climate as a phenological cue in general. Species that are not phenologically responsive may suffer in the face of continued climate change. Comparative studies of phenology have found phylogeny to be a reliable predictor of mean leaf-out date and flowering time at both the local and global scales. This is less true for flowering time response (i.e., the correlation between phenological timing and climate factors), while no study to date has explored whether the response of leaf-out date to climate factors exhibits phylogenetic signal. We used a 52-year observational phenological dataset for 52 woody species from the Forest Botanical Garden of Heilongjiang Province, China, to test phylogenetic signal in leaf-out date and flowering time, as well as, the response of these two phenological traits to both temperature and winter precipitation. Leaf-out date and flowering time were significantly responsive to temperature for most species, advancing, on average, 3.11 and 2.87 day/°C, respectively. Both leaf-out and flowering, and their responses to temperature exhibited significant phylogenetic signals. The response of leaf-out date to precipitation exhibited no phylogenetic signal, while flowering time response to precipitation did. Native species tended to have a weaker flowering response to temperature than non-native species. Earlier leaf-out species tended to have a greater response to winter precipitation. This study is the first to assess phylogenetic signal of leaf-out response to climate change, which suggests, that climate change has the potential to shape the plant communities, not only through flowering sensitivity, but also through leaf-out sensitivity.
The EPA GHG Center collaborated with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to evaluate the performance of the Climate Energy freewatt Micro-Combined Heat and Power System. The system is a reciprocating internal combustion (IC) engine distributed e...
24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-04-01
....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter and...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barbosa, A.; Robertson, W. H.
2013-12-01
In the 2012, the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies' reported that one of the major issues associated with the development of climate change curriculum was the lack of interdisciplinary materials that also promoted a correlation between science standards and content. Therefore, in order to respond to this need, our group has developed an interdisciplinary climate change curriculum that has had as its fundamental basis the alignment with the guidelines presented by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) and the ones presented by the international document entitled The Earth Charter. In this regards, while the alignment with NGSS disciplinary core ideas, cross-concepts and students' expectations intended to fulfill the need for the development of climate change curriculum activities that were directly associated with the appropriate set of NGSS guidelines, the alignment with The Earth Charter document intended to reinforce the need the for the integration of sociological, philosophical and intercultural analysis of the theme 'climate change'. Additionally, our curriculum was also developed as part of a collaborative project between climate scientists and engineers, who are responsible for the development of a Regional Arctic Simulation Model (RASM). Hence, another important curriculum constituent was the feedback, suggestions and reviews provided by these professionals, who have also contributed to these pedagogical materials' scientific accuracy by facilitating the integration of datasets and visualizations developed by RASM. Furthermore, our group has developed a climate change curriculum for two types of audience: high school and early undergraduate students. Each curriculum unit is divided into modules and each module contains a set of lesson plans. The topics selected to compose each unit and module were designated according to the surveys conducted with scientists and engineers involved with the development of the climate change simulation model. Inside each module, we have provided a description of the general topic being addressed, the appropriate grade levels, students' required prior knowledge, the correspondent NGSS topics, disciplinary core ideas and students' performance expectations, purpose of the activities, and lesson plan activities. Each lesson plan activity is composed by the following: an introductory text that aims at explaining the topic, activities description (classroom tasks and optional classroom activities), time frame, materials, assessment, additional readings and online resources (scientific journals, online simulation models, and books). Each module presents activities and discussions that incorporate historical, philosophical, sociological and/or scientific perspectives on the topics being addressed. Moreover, the activities and lesson plans designed to compose our curriculum have the potential of being used either individually or together, according to the teacher and topic of interest, at the same time that each unit can also be used as a full semester course.
Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald
2004-01-01
Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...
Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, D. L.
2009-12-01
Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.
Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Qafoku, Nikolla
2015-04-01
Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over themore » influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.« less
Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Qafoku, Nikolla P.
2014-08-01
Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO 2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO 2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with greatmore » concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO 2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca 2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.« less
Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B
2017-06-01
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.
2017-01-01
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnold, J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.; Vano, J. A.; Addor, N.; Wood, A.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Brekke, L. D.; Rasmussen, R.; Mendoza, P. A.
2016-12-01
Climate change narratives for water-resource applications must represent the change signals contextualized by hydroclimatic process variability and uncertainty at multiple scales. Building narratives of plausible change includes assessing uncertainties across GCM structure, internal climate variability, climate downscaling methods, and hydrologic models. Work with this linked modeling chain has dealt mostly with GCM sampling directed separately to either model fidelity (does the model correctly reproduce the physical processes in the world?) or sensitivity (of different model responses to CO2 forcings) or diversity (of model type, structure, and complexity). This leaves unaddressed any interactions among those measures and with other components in the modeling chain used to identify water-resource vulnerabilities to specific climate threats. However, time-sensitive, real-world vulnerability studies typically cannot accommodate a full uncertainty ensemble across the whole modeling chain, so a gap has opened between current scientific knowledge and most routine applications for climate-changed hydrology. To close that gap, the US Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are working on techniques to subsample uncertainties objectively across modeling chain components and to integrate results into quantitative hydrologic storylines of climate-changed futures. Importantly, these quantitative storylines are not drawn from a small sample of models or components. Rather, they stem from the more comprehensive characterization of the full uncertainty space for each component. Equally important from the perspective of water-resource practitioners, these quantitative hydrologic storylines are anchored in actual design and operations decisions potentially affected by climate change. This talk will describe part of our work characterizing variability and uncertainty across modeling chain components and their interactions using newly developed observational data, models and model outputs, and post-processing tools for making the resulting quantitative storylines most useful in practical hydrology applications.
Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.
2017-12-01
Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this presentation, we report the progress of community teams currently engaged in this program from throughout Alaska.
Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Peteet, D.
2000-01-01
Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.
CAN-DOO: The Climate Action Network through Direct Observations and Outreach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taubman, B.; Sherman, J. P.; Perry, L. B.; Markham, J.; Kelly, G.
2011-12-01
The urgency of climate change demands a greater understanding of our climate system, not only by the leaders of today, but by the scientists, policy makers, and citizens of tomorrow. Unfortunately, a large segment of the population currently possesses inadequate knowledge of climate science. In direct response to a need for greater scientific literacy with respect to climate science, researchers from Appalachian State University's Appalachian Atmospheric Interdisciplinary Research (AppalAIR) group, with support from NASA, have developed CAN-DOO: the Climate Action Network through Direct Observations and Outreach. CAN-DOO addresses climate science literacy by 1) Developing the infrastructure for sustaining and expanding public outreach through long-term climate measurements capable of complementing existing NASA measurements, 2) Enhancing public awareness of climate science and NASA's role in advancing our understanding of the Earth System, and 3) Introducing Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics principles to homeschooled, public school, and Appalachian State University students through applied climate science activities. Project partners include the Grandfather Mountain Stewardship Foundation, Pisgah Astronomical Research Institute, and local elementary schools. In partnership with Grandfather Mountain, climate science awareness is promoted through citizen science activities, interactive public displays, and staff training. CAN-DOO engages students by involving them in the entire scientific investigative process as applied to climate science. We introduce local elementary and middle school students, homeschooled students throughout North Carolina, and undergraduate students in a new Global Climate Change course and select other courses at Appalachian State University to instrument assembly, measurement techniques, data collection, hypothesis testing, and drawing conclusions. Results are placed in the proper context via comparisons with other student data products, local research-grade measurements, and NASA measurements. Several educational modules have been developed that address specific topics in climate science. The modules are scalable and have been successfully implemented at levels ranging from 2nd grade through first-year graduate as well as with citizen science groups. They also can be applied in user-desired segments to a variety of Earth Science units. In this paper, we will introduce the project activities and present results from the first year of observations and outreach, with a special emphasis on two of the developed modules, the surface energy balance and aerosol optical depth module.
Engineering a Cause and Cure to Climate Change; Working a culture change with our Future Engineers.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hudier, E. J. J.
2014-12-01
Where scientist unravel the laws of nature giving the human race the means to remodel their environment, engineers are the tools that put together the very technologies that give humans this power. Early on, along our first steps through this industrialization era, development was the key word, nature could digest our waste products no matter what. We have managed to tamper with our atmosphere's gas composition and the climate is slowly remodelling our way of life. Engineers are now expected to be a key part of the solution. Engineering programs have evolved to include new dimensions such as ethics, communication and environment. We want future engineers to put these dimensions first while working on new machine designs, concepts and procedures. As undergraduate students with a deep science background we also want them to be a source of information for their co-workers and more. How well are we getting through? How good teachers our future engineers will be? This work take a look at the teaching/learning successes comparing engineering students with students attending an undergraduate program in biology. Methods emphasizing the acquisition of knowledge through lectures and reading assignments are tested along with activities aiming at unraveling the scientific fundamental behind environmental issues and putting forward original solutions to specific problematic. Concept knowledge scores, communications' quality and activities evaluations by students are discussed.
Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.
2013-12-01
Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.
Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R
2014-01-01
Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. PMID:24934878
Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R
2014-09-01
Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ammann, C. M.; Vigh, J. L.; Lee, J. A.
2016-12-01
Society's growing needs for robust and relevant climate information have fostered an explosion in tools and frameworks for processing climate projections. Many top-down workflows might be employed to generate sets of pre-computed data and plots, frequently served in a "loading-dock style" through a metadata-enabled search and discovery engine. Despite these increasing resources, the diverse needs of applications-driven projects often result in data processing workflow requirements that cannot be fully satisfied using past approaches. In parallel to the data processing challenges, the provision of climate information to users in a form that is also usable represents a formidable challenge of its own. Finally, many users do not have the time nor the desire to synthesize and distill massive volumes of climate information to find the relevant information for their particular application. All of these considerations call for new approaches to developing actionable climate information. CRMe seeks to bridge the gap between the diversity and richness of bottom-up needs of practitioners, with discrete, structured top-down workflows typically implemented for rapid delivery. Additionally, CRMe has implemented web-based data services capable of providing focused climate information in usable form for a given location, or as spatially aggregated information for entire regions or countries following the needs of users and sectors. Making climate data actionable also involves summarizing and presenting it in concise and approachable ways. CRMe is developing the concept of dashboards, co-developed with the users, to condense the key information into a quick summary of the most relevant, curated climate data for a given discipline, application, or location, while still enabling users to efficiently conduct deeper discovery into rich datasets on an as-needed basis.
Science, Ethics and the Climate Responsibilities of Industrial Carbon Producers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frumhoff, P. C.
2014-12-01
The question of responsibility for climate change lies at the heart of societal debate over actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for now unavoidable climate impacts. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change established the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" among nations, signaling the recognition that industrialized nations who had produced the lion's share of historic emissions bore particular responsibility for avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system. But climate responsibilities can be distributed in other ways as well. This talk focuses on the scientific, historical and ethical basis for considering the climate responsibilities of the major fossil energy companies that have produced and marketed the coal, oil and natural gas whose use largely drives global warming, often while investing in efforts to discredit the scientific evidence and prevent policies that would encourage a transition to low-carbon energy. Earth scientists and scientific societies who rely on financial support from these companies have an opportunity to consider what ethical stance they might take to align their research, scientific understanding and values.
Campbell, Ryan C.; Wilson, Denise
2016-01-01
This paper provides an empirically informed perspective on the notion of responsibility using an ethical framework that has received little attention in the engineering-related literature to date: ethics of care. In this work, we ground conceptual explorations of engineering responsibility in empirical findings from engineering student’s writing on the human health and environmental impacts of “backyard” electronic waste recycling/disposal. Our findings, from a purposefully diverse sample of engineering students in an introductory electrical engineering course, indicate that most of these engineers of tomorrow associated engineers with responsibility for the electronic waste (e-waste) problem in some way. However, a number of responses suggested attempts to deflect responsibility away from engineers towards, for example, the government or the companies for whom engineers work. Still other students associated both engineers and non-engineers with responsibility, demonstrating the distributed/collective nature of responsibility that will be required to achieve a solution to the global problem of excessive e-waste. Building upon one element of a framework for care ethics adopted from the wider literature, these empirical findings are used to facilitate a preliminary, conceptual exploration of care-ethical responsibility within the context of engineering and e-waste recycling/disposal. The objective of this exploration is to provide a first step toward understanding how care-ethical responsibility applies to engineering. We also hope to seed dialogue within the engineering community about its ethical responsibilities on the issue. We conclude the paper with a discussion of its implications for engineering education and engineering ethics that suggests changes for educational policy and the practice of engineering. PMID:27368195
Virus resistant plums through genetic engineering - from lab to market
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Genetic engineering (GE) has the potential to revolutionize the genetic improvement of fruit trees and other specialty crops, to provide greater flexibility and speed in responding to changes in climate, production systems and market demands, and to maintain the competitiveness of American agricultu...
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less
Engineering Geology | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys
Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Highway and development of avalanche susceptibility and prediction models near Atigun Pass. Alaska coastal
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McCright, Aaron M.
2012-01-01
Promoting sustainability and dealing with complex environmental problems like climate change demand a citizenry with considerable scientific and quantitative literacy. In particular, students in the STEM disciplines of (biophysical) science, technology, engineering, and mathematics need to develop interdisciplinary skills that help them understand…
The Arctic Climate Modeling Program: Professional Development for Rural Teachers
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bertram, Kathryn Berry
2010-01-01
The Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP) offered yearlong science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) professional development to teachers in rural Alaska. Teacher training focused on introducing youth to workforce technologies used in Arctic research. Due to challenges in making professional development accessible to rural teachers, ACMP…
Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) assisted migration trial
Sierra C. McLane; Sally N. Aitken
2011-01-01
Assisted migration - the translocation of a species into a climatically-suitable location outside of its current range - has been proposed as a means of saving vulnerable species from extinction as temperatures rise due to climate change. We explore this controversial technique using the keystone wildlife symbiote and ecosystem engineer, whitebark pine (Pinus...
Performance of a Battery Electric Vehicle in the Cold Climate and Hilly Terrain of Vermont
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2008-12-23
The goal of this research project was to determine the performance of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) in the cold climate and hilly terrain of Vermont. For this study, a 2005 Toyota Echo was converted from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle...
A Case Study of Land Treatment in a Cold Climate-West Dover, Vermont,
1982-12-01
Research & ADA124~i8Engineering Laboratory A case study of land treatment in a cold climate- West Dover, Vermont IT C;0 ~ 03 09 052 CRREL Report 82...44 December 1982 A case study of land treatment in a cold climate- West Dover, Vermont J.R. Bouzoun, D.W. Meals and E.A. Cassell Prepared for OFFICE OF...4. TITLE (end SL : 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED A CASE STUDY OF LAND TREATMENT IN A COLD CLIMATE-WEST DOVER, VERMONT 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT
The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.
Boggs, Carol L
2016-10-01
Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Research progress of extreme climate and its vegetation response
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cui, Xiaolin; Wei, Xiaoqing; Wang, Tao
2017-08-01
The IPCC’s fifth assessment report indicates that climate warming is unquestionable, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may increase, and extreme weather events can destroy the growth conditions of vegetation that is otherwise in a stable condition. Therefore, it is essential to research the formation of extreme weather events and its ecological response, both in terms scientific development and the needs of societal development. This paper mainly examines these issues from the following aspects: (1) the definition of extreme climate events and the methods of studying the associated response of vegetation; (2) the research progress on extreme climate events and their vegetation response; and (3) the future direction of research on extreme climate and its vegetation response.
Climate and Offshore Energy Resources.
1980-12-30
SECuRITY CL.ASSIPIcaTIoN OF, TIns PA@elm VaeVa CLMATE ANID OFFSHORE ENERGY RESOUACES A distinguished group of government officials, scientists, engineers...about the mech- anisms of climatic systems, and gaining a better understanding of the impact of climatic change on human resources.* He continued by...atmospheric constit- uents, but he particularly emphasized " changes " in C02. He suggested that the atmospheric conditions may be better now than they were half
Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos
2016-01-01
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.
We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to thosemore » of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Moreover, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.« less
Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.; ...
2017-02-17
We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to thosemore » of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Moreover, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.« less
Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.
Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D
2015-11-01
Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner
2016-01-01
Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training...
Competition alters tree growth responses to climate at individual and stand scales
Kevin R. Ford; Ian K. Breckheimer; Jerry F. Franklin; James A. Freund; Steve J. Kroiss; Andrew J. Larson; Elinore J. Theobald; Janneke HilleRisLambers
2017-01-01
Understanding how climate affects tree growth is essential for assessing climate change impacts on forests but can be confounded by effects of competition, which strongly influences tree responses to climate. We characterized the joint influences of tree size, competition, and climate on diameter growth using hierarchical Bayesian methods applied to permanent sample...
Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto
2016-01-01
As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.
Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto
2016-06-01
As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.
Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc
2012-01-01
Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.
Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne
2015-06-02
Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.
Engineered containment and control systems: nurturing nature.
Clarke, James H; MacDonell, Margaret M; Smith, Ellen D; Dunn, R Jeffrey; Waugh, W Jody
2004-06-01
The development of engineered containment and control systems for contaminated sites must consider the environmental setting of each site. The behaviors of both contaminated materials and engineered systems are affected by environmental conditions that will continue to evolve over time as a result of such natural processes as climate change, ecological succession, pedogenesis, and landform changes. Understanding these processes is crucial to designing, implementing, and maintaining effective systems for sustained health and environmental protection. Traditional engineered systems such as landfill liners and caps are designed to resist natural processes rather than working with them. These systems cannot be expected to provide long-term isolation without continued maintenance. In some cases, full-scale replacement and remediation may be required within 50 years, at an effort and cost much higher than for the original cleanup. Approaches are being developed to define smarter containment and control systems for stewardship sites, considering lessons learned from implementing prescriptive waste disposal regulations enacted since the 1970s. These approaches more effectively involve integrating natural and engineered systems; enhancing sensors and predictive tools for evaluating performance; and incorporating information on failure events, including precursors and consequences, into system design and maintenance. An important feature is using natural analogs to predict environmental conditions and system responses over the long term, to accommodate environmental change in the design process, and, as possible, to engineer containment systems that mimic favorable natural systems. The key emphasis is harmony with the environment, so systems will work with and rely on natural processes rather than resisting them. Implementing these new integrated systems will reduce current requirements for active management, which are resource-intensive and expensive.
A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ragone, Francesco; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank
2016-03-01
The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.
Hogue, Candace M; Fry, Mary D; Fry, Andrew C; Pressman, Sarah D
2013-02-01
Research in achievement goal perspective theory suggests that the creation of a caring/task-involving (C/TI) climate results in more advantageous psychological and behavioral responses relative to an ego-involving (EI) climate; however, research has not yet examined the physiological consequences associated with psychological stress in relation to climate. Given the possible health and fitness implications of certain physiological stress responses, it is critical to understand this association. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine whether an EI climate procures increases in the stress-responsive hormone cortisol, as well as negative psychological changes, following the learning of a new skill, compared with a C/TI climate. Participants (n = 107) were randomized to a C/TI or an EI climate in which they learned how to juggle for 30 min over the course of 2 hr. Seven salivary cortisol samples were collected during this period. Results indicated that EI participants experienced greater cortisol responses after the juggling session and significantly greater anxiety, stress, shame, and self-consciousness relative to C/TI participants. In contrast, the C/TI participants reported greater enjoyment, effort, self-confidence, and interest and excitement regarding future juggling than the EI participants. These findings indicate that motivational climates may have a significant impact on both the physiological and psychological responses of participants.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mayes, Terrance
In the current technological era, the number of minorities in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is a crucial factor in predetermining the economic growth of the United States. Since the minority population is growing at much faster rates than the non-minority population, the lack of proportionate production of minority engineers poses a threat to the United States' ability to remain a global competitor in technological innovation. Sixty-three per cent (63%) of undergraduate students who enter engineering majors continue on to graduate in that major. The graduation rate, however, for African-American, Hispanic, and Native-American students in engineering is significantly lower at 39%. As this group represents only a small fraction of the annual student enrollment, engineering programs are graduating these minority groups at rates that are greatly disproportionate to United States demographics. Therefore, researchers are thoroughly investigating certain initiatives that promote academic success among underrepresented minority students in engineering. Colleges and universities have attempted to address the growing achievement gap between underrepresented minority and non-minority engineering students, predominately through various deficit-based interventions, focusing on the student's flaws and problems. As the pipeline for minorities in engineering continues to narrow, it begs the question of whether institutions are focusing on the right solutions to the problem. Critical Race Theory scholars argue that colleges and universities must address institutional climate issues around students, such as racism, microaggressions, and marginalization, before members of oppressed groups can truly succeed. This dissertation explored the unique experiences of underrepresented minority engineering students in a predominately White and Asian campus.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.
2012-12-01
Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect climate and social drivers of change to ecological processes and decision making. Components included review and synthesis of climate observations and projections, effects and impacts, and information on other relevant factors (e.g., subsistence activities, land cover, fire activity, land use change, sea level shifts). Although workshops focused primarily on park lands and waters, nearby communities and other land management units also participated. Results include a framework through which managers are beginning to analyze uncertainties associated with climate change and ecosystem responses and evaluate appropriate and effective actions. For example, at Kenai Fjords National Park, melting from the Harding Icefield and Exit Glacier is changing how managers respond to local flooding issues. The Exit Glacier is one of the park's iconic visitor experiences and in the last four years, the road to the glacier has been subject to mid-summer/fair weather flooding which are outside the historic norms. Rather than seek a traditional solution to the issue, park management has been working with highway engineers to evolve interim solutions as this dynamic system continues to rapidly change. Climate change scenarios established a set of possible plausible futures for the park and are also being used to "wind tunnel" potential responses.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Izard, Catherine Finlay
The electricity sector is responsible for producing 35% of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates suggest that ideally, the electricity sector would be responsible for approximately 85% of emissions abatement associated with climate polices such as America's Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). This is equivalent to ˜50% cumulative emissions reductions below projected cumulative business-as-usual (BAU) emissions. Achieving these levels of emissions reductions will require dramatic changes in the US electricity generating infrastructure: almost all of the fossil-generation fleet will need to be replaced with low-carbon sources and society is likely to have to maintain a high build rate of new capacity for decades. Unfortunately, the inertia in the electricity sector means that there may be physical constraints to the rate at which new electricity generating capacity can be built. Because the build rate of new electricity generating capacity may be limited, the timing of regulation is critical---the longer the U.S. waits to start reducing GHG emissions, the faster the turnover in the electricity sector must occur in order to meet the same target. There is a real, and thus far unexplored, possibility that the U.S. could delay climate change policy implementation for long enough that it becomes infeasible to attain the necessary rate of turnover in the electricity sector. This dissertation investigates the relationship between climate policy timing and infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector. The goal of the dissertation is to answer the question: How long can we wait before constraints on infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector make achieving our climate goals impossible? Using the Infrastructure Flow Assessment Model, which was developed in this work, this dissertation shows that delaying climate change policy increases average retirements rates by 200-400%, increases average construction rates by 25-85% and increases maximum construction rates by 50-300%. It also shows that delaying climate policy has little effect on the age of retired plants or the stranded costs associated with premature retirement. In order for the electricity sector to reduce emissions to a level required by ACES while limiting construction rates to within achievable levels, it is necessary to start immediately. Delaying the process of decarbonization means that more abatement will be necessary from other sectors or geoengineering. By not starting emissions abatement early, therefore, the US forfeits its most accessible abatement potential and increases the challenge of climate change mitigation unnecessarily.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Anyanwu, Raymond; Le Grange, Lesley; Beets, Peter
2015-01-01
One of the universal responses to tackling global climate change is teaching climate change concepts at all levels of formal education. This response requires, among other things, teachers who are fully literate about climate change science, so that they can explain the concepts underlying the causes, impacts and solutions of climate change as…
Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia
2012-01-01
Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ross, M. N.; Toohey, D.
2008-12-01
Emissions from solid and liquid propellant rocket engines reduce global stratospheric ozone levels. Currently ~ one kiloton of payloads are launched into earth orbit annually by the global space industry. Stratospheric ozone depletion from present day launches is a small fraction of the ~ 4% globally averaged ozone loss caused by halogen gases. Thus rocket engine emissions are currently considered a minor, if poorly understood, contributor to ozone depletion. Proposed space-based geoengineering projects designed to mitigate climate change would require order of magnitude increases in the amount of material launched into earth orbit. The increased launches would result in comparable increases in the global ozone depletion caused by rocket emissions. We estimate global ozone loss caused by three space-based geoengineering proposals to mitigate climate change: (1) mirrors, (2) sunshade, and (3) space-based solar power (SSP). The SSP concept does not directly engineer climate, but is touted as a mitigation strategy in that SSP would reduce CO2 emissions. We show that launching the mirrors or sunshade would cause global ozone loss between 2% and 20%. Ozone loss associated with an economically viable SSP system would be at least 0.4% and possibly as large as 3%. It is not clear which, if any, of these levels of ozone loss would be acceptable under the Montreal Protocol. The large uncertainties are mainly caused by a lack of data or validated models regarding liquid propellant rocket engine emissions. Our results offer four main conclusions. (1) The viability of space-based geoengineering schemes could well be undermined by the relatively large ozone depletion that would be caused by the required rocket launches. (2) Analysis of space- based geoengineering schemes should include the difficult tradeoff between the gain of long-term (~ decades) climate control and the loss of short-term (~ years) deep ozone loss. (3) The trade can be properly evaluated only if our understanding of the stratospheric impact of rocket emissions is significantly improved. (4) Such an improved understanding requires a concerted effort of research including new in situ measurements in a variety of rocket plumes and a multi-scale modeling program similar in scope to the effort required to address the climate and ozone impacts of aircraft emissions.
Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois
2014-02-01
Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.
Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mission Science Briefing
2016-12-10
In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a mission science briefing for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Sean Potter of NASA Communications; Dr. Chris Ruf, CYGNSS principal investigator, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan; Aaron Ridley, CYGNSS constellation scientist in the Climate and Space Department at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Mary Morris, doctoral student in the Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.
Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mission Science Briefing
2016-12-10
In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a mission science briefing for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Dr. Chris Ruf, CYGNSS principal investigator, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan; Aaron Ridley, CYGNSS constellation scientist in the Climate and Space Department at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Mary Morris, doctoral student in the Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.
Large space-based systems for dealing with global environment change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jenkins, Lyle M.
1992-01-01
Increased concern over the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer has resulted in support for the Global Change Research Program and the Mission to Planet Earth. Research to understand Earth system processes is critical, but it falls short of providing ways of mitigating the effects of change. Geoengineering options and alternatives to interactively manage change need to be developed. Space-based concepts for dealing with changes to the environment should be considered in addition to Earth-based actions. 'Mission for Planet Earth' describes those space-based geoengineering solutions that may combine with an international global change program to stabilize the Global environment. Large space systems that may be needed for this response challenge guidance and control engineering and technology. Definition, analysis, demonstration, and preparation of geoengineering technology will provide a basis for policy response if global change consequences are severe.
A perspective on nonstationarity and water management
Hirsch, R.M.
2011-01-01
This essay offers some perspectives on climate-related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long-term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long-term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well-trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.
Forecasting Climate-Induced Ecosystem Changes on Army Installations
2011-10-01
W. Hargrove Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL) US Army Engineer Research and Development Center 2902 Newmark Dr. Champaign, IL...unless so designated by other authorized documents. DESTROY THIS REPORT WHEN NO LONGER NEEDED. DO NOT RETURN IT TO THE ORIGINATOR. ERDC/CERL TR-11-36...35 ERDC/CERL TR-11-36 v Preface This study was conducted for Dr. Jeffrey Holland, Director of the Engineer Research and Development
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Drury, Sara A. Mehltretter
2015-01-01
The author argues that deliberation is an innovative method for teaching communication skills, particularly group communication, in the undergraduate science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) curriculum. A case study using a deliberation activity on global climate change in an introductory biology course demonstrates how deliberative…
24. PHOTOCOPY OF PLAN DRAWING. Quartermaster Research and Development Laboratory, ...
24. PHOTOCOPY OF PLAN DRAWING. Quartermaster Research and Development Laboratory, Natick, Mass, Climatic Building, First Floor Plan, Architectural. Drawing No. 35-07-01, Sheet 2 of 72, 1952, updated to 1985. (Source: NRDEC). - Natick Research & Development Laboratories, Climatic Chambers Building, U.S. Army Natick Research, Development & Engineering Center (NRDEC), Natick, Middlesex County, MA
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Peters, Michelle L.
2013-01-01
For nearly 50 years, leaders in American industry, military, education, and politics have focused considerable attention on STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) education. Given the increased societal demand for STEM careers, the relationships among classroom climate, self-efficacy, and achievement in undergraduate mathematics…
Military Potential Test of the UH-2A Helicopter.
1963-10-25
required to fully service two engines during engine change. 3. One quart of hydr aulic fluid , MIL 5606. Used to replace spillage while disconnecting...Maryland , dated 24 January 1963. 7. Report Nr. 1, Final Report, Climatic Laboratory Environ- mental Test of the Model UH- 2A Helicopter , by US
Examining Department Climate for Women in Engineering: The Role of STEM Interventions
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rincón, Blanca E.; George-Jackson, Casey E.
2016-01-01
Women comprise over half of the total undergraduate population in the United States (National Center for Education Statistics, 2014), yet remain underrepresented in a number of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields (National Science Foundation [NSF], 2014). Although women have steadily increased their representation in…
A geoscientist in the State Department
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prather, Michael J.
2006-12-01
It must have been in a fit of idealism, à la Jimmy Stewart, that I applied to be a Jefferson Science Fellow (JSF) at the U.S. Department of State in the summer of 2004. The flyer was appealing, offering an opportunity to become "directly involved with the State Department, applying current knowledge of science and technology in support of the development of U.S. international policy. The Jefferson Science Fellowships enable academic scientists and engineers to act as consultants to the State Department on matters of science, technology, and engineering as they affect foreign policy."My own science—elating to ozone depletion, climate change, and aviation environmental impacts—often has been at the science-policy interface. As a result, I have attended governmental and intergovernmental meetings, particularly the international assessments on climate change and ozone depletion. I had even come to know the State Department team on climate negotiations, although I had never been inside the State Department. The appeal of working on the inside of negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was strong—if only to find out what an 'interlocutor' was.
Climate Change: Modeling the Human Response
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oppenheimer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.
2012-12-01
Integrated assessment models have historically relied on forward modeling including, where possible, process-based representations to project climate change impacts. Some recent impact studies incorporate the effects of human responses to initial physical impacts, such as adaptation in agricultural systems, migration in response to drought, and climate-related changes in worker productivity. Sometimes the human response ameliorates the initial physical impacts, sometimes it aggravates it, and sometimes it displaces it onto others. In these arenas, understanding of underlying socioeconomic mechanisms is extremely limited. Consequently, for some sectors where sufficient data has accumulated, empirically based statistical models of human responses to past climate variability and change have been used to infer response sensitivities which may apply under certain conditions to future impacts, allowing a broad extension of integrated assessment into the realm of human adaptation. We discuss the insights gained from and limitations of such modeling for benefit-cost analysis of climate change.
The Vital Role of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy in the New Administration
2016-09-14
S&T effort. OSTP coordinates interagency R&D—including such areas as nanotechnology, climate change , and genomics—while keeping the President and...Bill Clinton, 2000 ----- “On issues ranging from climate change to AIDS research to genetic engineering to food additives, government relies on...States and other nations of the world while protecting human health and the world’s ecosystem and mitigating climate change is, arguably, the number
Climate Variability and Ecosystem Response
David Greenland; Lloyd W. Swift; [Editors
1990-01-01
Nine papers describe studies of climate variability and ecosystem response. The studies were conducted at LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) sites representing forest, agricultural, and aquatic ecosystems and systems in which extreme climates limit vegetational cover. An overview paper prepared by the LTER Climate Committee stresses the importance of (1) clear...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Millar, R.; Boneham, J.; Hepburn, C.; Allen, M. R.
2015-12-01
Climate change solutions are subject to many inherent uncertainties. One of the most important is the uncertainty over the magnitude of the physical response of the climate system to external forcing. The risk of extremely large responses to forcing, so called "fat-tail" outcomes, cannot be ruled out from the latest science and offer profound challenges when creating policies that aim to meet a specific target of global temperature change. This study offers examples of how mitigation policies can be made resilient to this uncertainty in the physical climate response via indexing policies against an attributable anthropogenic warming index (the magnitude of the observed global mean warming that is can be traced to human activities), the AWI, instead of against time directly. We show that indexing policy measures that influence the total stock of carbon in the atmosphere (such as the fraction of extracted carbon sequestered) against the AWI can largely eliminate the risk of missing the specified warming goal due to unexpectedly large climate responses as well as the risk of costly over-mitigation if the physical response turned out to be lower than expected. We offer further examples of how this methodology can be expanded to include short-lived climate pollutants as well as long-lived carbon dioxide. Indexing policies against the AWI can have important consequences for the actions of governments acting to design national climate mitigation policies as well as private sector investors looking to incentivise the transition to a climate-stable economy. We conclude with some thoughts on how these indexes can help focus attention on the long-term perspective that is consistent with the conclusions of the latest climate science on what is required to ultimately stabilise the global climate system.
Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.
Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G
2016-07-01
Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Indicators and metrics for the assessment of climate engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oschlies, A.; Held, H.; Keller, D.; Keller, K.; Mengis, N.; Quaas, M.; Rickels, W.; Schmidt, H.
2017-01-01
Selecting appropriate indicators is essential to aggregate the information provided by climate model outputs into a manageable set of relevant metrics on which assessments of climate engineering (CE) can be based. From all the variables potentially available from climate models, indicators need to be selected that are able to inform scientists and society on the development of the Earth system under CE, as well as on possible impacts and side effects of various ways of deploying CE or not. However, the indicators used so far have been largely identical to those used in climate change assessments and do not visibly reflect the fact that indicators for assessing CE (and thus the metrics composed of these indicators) may be different from those used to assess global warming. Until now, there has been little dedicated effort to identifying specific indicators and metrics for assessing CE. We here propose that such an effort should be facilitated by a more decision-oriented approach and an iterative procedure in close interaction between academia, decision makers, and stakeholders. Specifically, synergies and trade-offs between social objectives reflected by individual indicators, as well as decision-relevant uncertainties should be considered in the development of metrics, so that society can take informed decisions about climate policy measures under the impression of the options available, their likely effects and side effects, and the quality of the underlying knowledge base.
The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Twine, T. E.; Snyder, P. K.; Hamilton, P.; Shepherd, M.; Stone, B., Jr.
2015-12-01
In much of the world cities are warming at twice the rate of outlying rural areas. The frequency of urban heat waves is projected to increase with climate change through the 21st century. Addressing the economic, environmental, and human costs of urban heat islands requires a better understanding of their behavior from many disciplinary perspectives. The goal of this four-year Urban Heat Island Network is to (1) bring together scientists studying the causes and impacts of urban warming, (2) advance multidisciplinary understanding of urban heat islands, (3) examine how they can be ameliorated through engineering and design practices, and (4) share these new insights with a wide array of stakeholders responsible for managing urban warming to reduce their health, economic, and environmental impacts. The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network involves atmospheric scientists, engineers, architects, landscape designers, urban planners, public health experts, and education and outreach experts, who will share knowledge, evaluate research directions, and communicate knowledge and research recommendations to the larger research community as well as stakeholders engaged in developing strategies to adapt to and mitigate urban warming. The first Urban Climate Institute was held in Saint Paul, MN in July 2013 and focused on the characteristics of urban heat islands. Scientists engaged with local practitioners to improve communication pathways surrounding issues of understanding, adapting to, and mitigating urban warming. The second Urban Climate Institute was held in Atlanta, Georgia in July 2014 and focused on urban warming and public health. The third Urban Climate Institute was held in Athens, GA in July 2015 and focused on urban warming and the role of the built environment. Scientists and practitioners discussed strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Evaluation experts at the Science Museum of Minnesota have extensively evaluated the Institutes to inform other research coordination networks and to identify effective ways that researchers and practitioners can share knowledge and communicate more effectively. A final Institute is planned for July of 2016 in Saint Paul, MN. This institute will focus on synthesizing findings from the first three workshops and discuss education and outreach efforts.
Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.
Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian
2015-09-01
Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sonntag, Sebastian; Ferrer González, Miriam; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kracher, Daniela; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Pongratz, Julia; Reick, Christian H.; Schmidt, Hauke
2018-02-01
To contribute to a quantitative comparison of climate engineering (CE) methods, we assess atmosphere-, ocean-, and land-based CE measures with respect to Earth system effects consistently within one comprehensive model. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) with prognostic carbon cycle to compare solar radiation management (SRM) by stratospheric sulfur injection and two carbon dioxide removal methods: afforestation and ocean alkalinization. The CE model experiments are designed to offset the effect of fossil-fuel burning on global mean surface air temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario to follow or get closer to the RCP4.5 scenario. Our results show the importance of feedbacks in the CE effects. For example, as a response to SRM the land carbon uptake is enhanced by 92 Gt by the year 2100 compared to the reference RCP8.5 scenario due to reduced soil respiration thus reducing atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, we show that normalizations allow for a better comparability of different CE methods. For example, we find that due to compensating processes such as biogeophysical effects of afforestation more carbon needs to be removed from the atmosphere by afforestation than by alkalinization to reach the same global warming reduction. Overall, we illustrate how different CE methods affect the components of the Earth system; we identify challenges arising in a CE comparison, and thereby contribute to developing a framework for a comparative assessment of CE.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy
2016-04-01
The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample from the full range of uncertainties associated with all parts of the simulation chain, from global climate models with simulations of natural climate variability, through regional climate downscaling, and on to modeling of affected hydrologic processes and downstream water resources impacts. This talk will present part of the work underway now both to reveal and reduce some important uncertainties and to develop explicit guidance for future generation of quantitative hydroclimatic storylines. Topics will include: 1- model structural and parameter-set limitations of some methods widely used to quantify climate impacts to hydrologic processes [Gutmann et al., 2014; Newman et al., 2015]; 2- development and evaluation of new, spatially consistent, U.S. national-scale climate downscaling and hydrologic simulation capabilities directly relevant at the multiple scales of water-resource decision-making [Newman et al., 2015; Mizukami et al., 2015; Gutmann et al., 2016]; and 3- development and evaluation of advanced streamflow forecasting methods to reduce and represent integrated uncertainties in a tractable way [Wood et al., 2014; Wood et al., 2015]. A key focus will be areas where climatologic and hydrologic science is currently under-developed to inform decisions - or is perhaps wrongly scaled or misapplied in practice - indicating the need for additional fundamental science and interpretation.
Validation of the RegCM4-Subgrid module for the high resolution climate simulation over Korea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, C.; Im, E.; Chang, K.; Choi, Y.
2010-12-01
Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and the low and high rainfall extremes can influence the water balance of river basin, with several consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, especially for water resources. As an attempt to accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we developed the dynamical downscaling system using the RegCM4 with a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS). The Sub-BATS system is composed of 20 km coarse-grid cell and 4 km sub-grid cell. Before a full climate change simulation is carried out, we performed the simulation spanning the 19-year periods (1989-2007) with the lateral boundary fields obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The Korean peninsula is characterized by narrow mountain systems surrounded by ocean, and covered by a relatively dense observational network (approximate 400 stations), which provides an excellent dataset to validate a finescale downscaled results over the region. The evaluation of simulated surface variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, snow, runoff) shows the usefulness of the RegCM4-Subgrid module as a tool to produce fine scale climate information of surface processes for coupling with hydrological model over the Korean peninsula Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Korea Science and Engineering Foundation (KOSEF) grant funded by the Korea government(MEST) (No. 2009-0085533), and by the "Advanced research on industrial meteorology" and " Development of meteorological resources for green growth." of National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA).
Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui
2014-01-01
Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.
Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui
2014-01-01
Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610
Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing.
Sullivan, Martin J P; Thomsen, Meredith A; Suttle, K B
2016-04-01
Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mills, K.; Ryves, D. B.; Anderson, N. J.; Bryant, C. L.; Tyler, J. J.
2014-08-01
Equatorial East Africa has a complex regional patchwork of climate regimes, sensitive to climate fluctuations over a variety of temporal and spatial scales during the late Holocene. Understanding how these changes are recorded in and interpreted from biological and geochemical proxies in lake sedimentary records remains a key challenge to answering fundamental questions regarding the nature, spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African palaeo-records. Using a paired lake approach, where neighbouring lakes share the same geology, climate and landscape, it might be expected that the systems will respond similarly to external climate forcing. Sediment cores from two crater lakes in western Uganda spanning the last ~1000 years were examined to assess diatom community responses to late Holocene climate and environmental changes, and to test responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis (RDA). These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. Lakes Nyamogusingiri and Kyasanduka appear to operate as independent systems in their recording of a similar hydrological response signal via distinct diatom records. However, whilst their fossil diatom records demonstrate an individualistic, indirect response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, the inferred lake levels show similar overall trends and reflect the broader patterns observed in Uganda and across East Africa. The lakes appear to be sensitive to large-scale climatic perturbations, with evidence of a dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. AD 1000-1200). The diatom record from Lake Nyamogusingiri suggests a drying climate during the main phase of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (ca. AD 1600-1800), whereas the diatom response from the shallower Lake Kyasanduka is more complex (with groundwater likely playing a key role), and may be driven more by changes in silica and other nutrients, rather than by lake level. The sensitivity of these two Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down in ca. AD 1800, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments, although both proxy records appear to respond to the drought recorded across East Africa in the mid-20th century. The data highlight the complexity of diatom community responses to external drivers (climate or cultural), even in neighbouring, shallow freshwater lakes. This research also illustrates the importance of, and the need to move towards, a multi-lake, multi-proxy landscape approach to understanding regional hydrological change which will allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, climate forcing and ecosystem response models.
Requirements Engineering in Building Climate Science Software
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Batcheller, Archer L.
Software has an important role in supporting scientific work. This dissertation studies teams that build scientific software, focusing on the way that they determine what the software should do. These requirements engineering processes are investigated through three case studies of climate science software projects. The Earth System Modeling Framework assists modeling applications, the Earth System Grid distributes data via a web portal, and the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Command Language is used to convert, analyze and visualize data. Document analysis, observation, and interviews were used to investigate the requirements-related work. The first research question is about how and why stakeholders engage in a project, and what they do for the project. Two key findings arise. First, user counts are a vital measure of project success, which makes adoption important and makes counting tricky and political. Second, despite the importance of quantities of users, a few particular "power users" develop a relationship with the software developers and play a special role in providing feedback to the software team and integrating the system into user practice. The second research question focuses on how project objectives are articulated and how they are put into practice. The team seeks to both build a software system according to product requirements but also to conduct their work according to process requirements such as user support. Support provides essential communication between users and developers that assists with refining and identifying requirements for the software. It also helps users to learn and apply the software to their real needs. User support is a vital activity for scientific software teams aspiring to create infrastructure. The third research question is about how change in scientific practice and knowledge leads to changes in the software, and vice versa. The "thickness" of a layer of software infrastructure impacts whether the software team or users have control and responsibility for making changes in response to new scientific ideas. Thick infrastructure provides more functionality for users, but gives them less control of it. The stability of infrastructure trades off against the responsiveness that the infrastructure can have to user needs.
A Century of Geology-Curriculum Response to Society: A Case Study at Oregon State University
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grunder, A.; Johnson, J. A.
2014-12-01
Over the past century, the geology curriculum at Oregon State University has remained constant in some areas and changed in others in response to internal (faculty and university) and external (economic, and intellectual) drivers. A decadal summary of 100 years of the geology curriculum at Oregon State University reveals socio-economic patterns. From 1913, when the School of Mines was established, to 1932, when it was dismembered, the geology curriculum was designed in support mining engineering. In that time, the geology department (est. 1914) moved from the School of Mines to the School of Science. Several decades of paleontology-intensive curriculum followed under the leadership of noted paleontologist Earl Packard, as dean and chair. The curriculum transitioned from support of the oil industry in the 60s and 70s, with a strong field emphasis engendered by "Doc" Wilkinson, to increased structure and tectonics emphasis in response to the tectonic revolution under the leadership of structural geologist Robert Yeats. In the last few decades the program has grown diverse in environmental and climatic interests. The early curriculum required a three-course series in determinative mineralogy plus petrography and 3 courses in petrology (igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic), making a core of seven; we require 3 courses today. Like all students in the School of Mines, those with the geology specialization were required to take a field course in surveying and to spend several summer months working in the mining industry. This strong field tradition persisted through time with an introductory field methods class coupled with a summer field camp. The total number of weeks dedicated to field classes, excluding the work experience requirement, has varied from as high as 12 credit-hours to the present 6 (quarters basis). On the other hand, increased short field experiences are reflected by incorporation of more field trips in nearly all courses since the 80's, fostered by accessible transportation. General education courses delivered by geology faculty have mimicked these changes, from early service courses in basic geology for engineering, mining and agriculture to a diverse slate of courses from basic geology to natural hazards and climate.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schnake, Mel E.
1983-01-01
Examined whether an affective response affects the dimensionality of perceptual measures of organizational climate, in a study of 8,938 employees who completed an organizational climate questionnaire and a measure of job satisfaction. Results suggested that partialing job satisfaction out of responses improved the dimensionality of the climate…
Infusing Sustainability Across Disciplines to Build Student Engagement
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bruckner, M. Z.; O'Connell, K.; McDaris, J. R.; Kirk, K. B.; Larsen, K.; Kent, M.; Manduca, C. A.; Egger, A. E.; Blockstein, D.; Mogk, D. W.; Taber, J.
2014-12-01
Establishing relevance and effective communication are key mechanisms for building student and community engagement in a topic and can be used to promote the importance of working across disciplines to solve problems. Sustainability, including the impacts of and responses to climate change, is an inherently interdisciplinary issue and can be infused across courses and curricula in a variety of ways. Key topics such as climate change, hazards, and food, water, and energy production and sustainability are relevant to a wide audience and can be used to build student engagement. Using real-world examples, service learning, and focusing on the local environment may further boost engagement by establishing relevance between sustainability issues and students' lives. Communication plays a key role in the exchange of information across disciplines and allows for a more holistic approach to tackling the complex climate and sustainability issues our society faces. It has the power to bridge gaps, break down disciplinary silos, and build connections among diverse audiences with a wide range of expertise, including scientists, policy-makers, stakeholders, and the general public. It also aids in planning and preparation for, response to, and mitigation of issues related to sustainability, including the impacts of climate change, to lessen the detrimental effects of unavoidable events such as sea level rise and extreme weather events. Several workshops from the InTeGrate and On the Cutting Edge projects brought together educators and practitioners from a range of disciplines including geoscience, engineering, social science, and more to encourage communication and collaboration across disciplines. They supported networking, community-building, and sharing of best practices for preparing our students for a sustainable future, both in and out of the workplace, and across disciplines. Interdisciplinary teams are also working together to author curricular materials that highlight societal issues. The InTeGrate Teaching Materials web pages highlight major outcomes from the workshops and feature community-contributed resources and pedagogic guidance designed to enhance teaching about sustainability across disciplines. Explore these materials at: serc.carleton.edu/integrate/teaching_materials/
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rothballer, K.; Sturges, M. J.
2016-12-01
Join veteran artist/activist Molly Sturges for a presentation on FIREROCK: PASS THE SPARK performances and engagement processes that foster personal and collective creativity for sustained climate engagement and collaborative leadership. FIREROCK: PASS THE ROCK opens in San Francisco in October 2016. This project is an evolving, long-term, social innovation project that has been developed with faith, Indigenous and directly impacted communities as well as schools, towns and universities. Informed by science, social justice, Indigenous knowledge, and grassroots activism FIREROCK includes performances that are accompanied by a series of activities designed to build community and engineer creative spaces for dialogue and response. The FIREROCK team has found that people are excited to engage around climate when there are venues available for expressivity and meaningful exchange. FIREROCK supports us in moving from our current stance in which we are paralyzed— often not knowing what to do or how to act—to seeing ourselves as part of the solution. FIREROCK is a family-friendly catalytic musical journey inviting people into the complexity of climate change and sparking an inspired response to the mythic challenges of our time. Through story, song and unique engagement experiences, FIREROCK builds community towards action and solutions. FIREROCK provides partners with everything they need to make the project their own, including a comprehensive toolkit to assist groups in learning how to develop community partnerships, convene FIREROCK engagement activities and facilitate dialogue and skill sharing. This dynamic storytelling project is scalable and can be employed, adapted and localized by groups and communities nationwide as a powerful catalyst for climate engagement work. Molly Sturges is a national leader in arts, ecology and social change work. She is the Founding Artistic Director of Littleglobe, a diverse arts cooperative made up of artistic and cultural workers devoted to arts and social change. Sturges was a professor in Arts and Ecology at The University of New Mexico for six years before joining the faculty at The Academy for the Love of Learning. She recently founded The Institute for Living Story, a hub of participatory arts and social transformation projects.
Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change
Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.
2016-01-01
Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153
Terraforming the Planets and Climate Change Mitigation on Earth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toon, O. B.
2008-12-01
Hopefully, purposeful geo-engineering of the Earth will remain a theoretical concept. Of course, we have already inadvertently changed the Earth, and over geologic history life has left an indelible imprint on our planet. We can learn about geo-engineering schemes by reference to Earth history, for example climate changes after volcanic eruptions provide important clues to using sulfates to modify the climate. The terrestrial planets and Titan offer additional insights. For instance, Mars and Venus both have carbon dioxide dominated greenhouses. Both have more than 10 times as much carbon dioxide in their atmospheres as Earth, and both absorb less sunlight than Earth, yet one is much colder than Earth and one is much hotter. These facts provide important insights into carbon dioxide greenhouses that I will review. Mars cools dramatically following planet wide dust storms, and Titan has what is referred to as an anti- greenhouse climate driven by aerosols. These data can be used to reassure us that we can model aerosol caused changes to the climate of a planet, and also provide examples of aerosols offsetting a gas-driven greenhouse effect. People have long considered whether we might make the other planets habitable. While most of the schemes considered belong in the realm of science fiction, it is possible that some schemes might be practical. Terraforming brings to mind a number of issues that are thought provoking, but not so politically charged as geo-engineering. For example: What criteria define habitability, is it enough for people to live in isolated glass enclosures, or do we need to walk freely on the planet? Different creatures have different needs. Is a planet habitable if plants can thrive in the open, or do animals also need to be free? Are the raw materials present on any planet to make it habitable? If not, can we make the materials, or do we have to import them? Is it ethical to change a planetary climate? What if there are already primitive creatures hidden somewhere, does that change the ethics? Or perhaps, if left alone, the planet would later evolve to have life, is it ethical to alter that path? Many of these questions have parallels to things we need to consider when we talk about geo-engineering Earth. I will touch upon some of these subjects in this talk.
We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site...
Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel
2014-01-01
The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.
Integrating plant ecological responses to climate extremes from individual to ecosystem levels.
Felton, Andrew J; Smith, Melinda D
2017-06-19
Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.
Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J
2010-02-11
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.
Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri
2011-01-01
1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.
Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.
Alexander, Jake M; Diez, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan M
2015-09-24
Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.
Iles, David T; Rockwell, Robert F; Koons, David N
2018-07-01
The effects of climate on wild populations are often channelled through species interactions. Population responses to climate variation can therefore differ across habitats, owing to variation in the biotic community. Theory predicts that consumer demography should be less variable and less responsive to climate in habitats with greater resource diversity. We tested these predictions using a long-term study of breeding lesser snow geese along the western coast of Hudson Bay, Manitoba, Canada. Reproductive success was measured in 22 years from 114 locations, in either coastal or inland habitat types. We used Bayesian analysis to estimate the response of reproductive success to climate in each habitat type, along with residual variation not explained by climate. We then quantified gosling diet composition in each habitat type to test the prediction that reproductive success would be less variable and more responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity. Reproductive success responded positively to seasonal warmness, but this response was much stronger in inland habitats than in coastal habitats. Site- and year-level random effects were also three to five times more variable in inland habitats. Simultaneously, land cover diversity and gosling diet diversity were lower in inland habitats. Our study illustrates that spatial variation in resource diversity (and thus, species interactions) can have important effects on consumer responses to climate. In this system, climate change is expected to disproportionately increase the reproductive success of snow geese in vast inland habitats, potentially counteracting management efforts to reduce the abundance of this keystone herbivore. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.
Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.
Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters
2011-01-01
Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat...
Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.
Clark, James S; Bell, David M; Kwit, Matthew C; Zhu, Kai
2014-06-01
The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and competition at the individual scale. Models of forest response to climate do not include interactions because they are hard to estimate and require long-term observations on individual trees obtained at frequent (annual) intervals. Interactions involve multiple tree responses that can only be quantified if these responses are estimated as a joint distribution. A new approach provides estimates of climate–competition interactions in two critical ways, (i) among individuals, as a joint distribution of responses to combinations of inputs, such as resources and climate, and (ii) within individuals, due to allocation requirements that control outputs, such as demographic rates. Application to 20 years of data from climate and competition gradients shows that interactions control forest responses, and their omission from models leads to inaccurate predictions. Species most vulnerable to increasing aridity are not those that show the largest growth response to precipitation, but rather depend on interactions with the local resource environment. This first assessment of regional species vulnerability that is based on the scale at which climate operates, individual trees competing for carbon and water, supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US.
Slow Response or No Response? Distinguishing Non-Climatic Range Limits from Demographic Inertia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hillerislambers, J.; Anderegg, L. D. L.; Breckheimer, I.; Ford, K.; Kroiss, S.
2016-12-01
One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how species distributions will respond to climate change. In general, species distributions have moved polewards and upslope with recent climate change (i.e. range shifts), supporting the assumption that range limits are climatically determined. However, studies also document a surprising number of species whose distributions have remained unchanged in the last 50-100 years, despite significant warming during that time period. This apparent lack of response to warming can arise for species whose range limits are determined by factors other than climate (e.g. species interactions) OR for long-lived, slow-growing, and/or dispersal-limited species whose range shifts are unable to keep pace with rapid climate change. Unfortunately, while these two possibilities are often difficult to distinguish, they have very different implications for the long-term viability of the species in question. Here, we use extensive demographic data for long-lived and slow-growing conifers collected across a large climatic gradient at Mount Rainier (WA, USA) to explore A) evidence for climatically determined range limits and B) the rate at which altitudinal distributions could shift in response to climate change in the region. In doing so, we highlight some of the complications we face in identifying whether species will be sensitive or resilient to climate change.
Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.
Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R
2017-10-01
Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sharing and Shaping Usable Science through the Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
2011-10-31
pressure on participants time, this increase is a clear indicator that the forum serves a valuable role, with more persons connecting as they learn about...Science through the Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum William D. Goran, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Sam Higuchi...COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Sharing and Shaping Usable Science through the Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum 5a
Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.
2015-01-01
There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247
Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E
2015-08-18
There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.
U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network
,
2007-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey serves the Nation by providing reliable hydrologic information used by others to manage the Nation's water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures more than 20,000 wells each year for a variety of objectives as part of Federal programs and in cooperation with State and local agencies. Water-level data are collected using consistent data-collection and quality-control methods. A small subset of these wells meets the criteria necessary to be included in a 'Climate Response Network' of wells designed to illustrate the response of the ground-water system to climate variations nationwide. The primary purpose of the Climate Response Network is to portray the effect of climate on ground-water levels in unconfined aquifers or near-surface confined aquifers that are minimally affected by pumping or other anthropogenic stresses. The Climate Response Network Web site (http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/) is the official USGS Web site for illustrating current ground-water conditions in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Climate Response Network Web pages provide information on ground-water conditions at a variety of scales. A national map provides a broad overview of water-table conditions across the Nation. State maps provide a more local picture of ground-water conditions. Site pages provide the details about a specific well.
Harrison, W.D.; Cox, L.H.; Hock, R.; March, R.S.; Pettit, E.C.
2009-01-01
Conventional and reference-surface mass-balance data from Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers, Alaska, USA, are used to address the questions of how rapidly these glaciers are adjusting (or 'responding') to climate, whether their responses are stable, and whether the glaciers are likely to survive in today's climate. Instability means that a glacier will eventually vanish, or at least become greatly reduced in volume, if the climate stabilizes at its present state. A simple non-linear theory of response is presented for the analysis. The response of Gulkana Glacier is characterized by a timescale of several decades, but its stability and therefore its survival in today's climate are uncertain. Wolverine seems to be responding to climate more slowly, on the timescale of one to several centuries. Its stability is also uncertain, but a slower response time would make it more susceptible to climate changes.
Wiley, Lindsay F
2010-01-01
The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well. © 2010 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.
Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.
Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B
2017-08-16
The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).
Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?
Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis
2016-10-01
Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
Smolina, Irina; Kollias, Spyros; Jueterbock, Alexander; Coyer, James A.; Hoarau, Galice
2016-01-01
It is unclear whether intertidal organisms are ‘preadapted’ to cope with the increase of temperature and temperature variability or if they are currently at their thermal tolerance limits. To address the dichotomy, we focused on an important ecosystem engineer of the Arctic intertidal rocky shores, the seaweed Fucus distichus and investigated thermal stress responses of two populations from different temperature regimes (Svalbard and Kirkenes, Norway). Thermal stress responses at 20°C, 24°C and 28°C were assessed by measuring photosynthetic performance and expression of heat shock protein (HSP) genes (shsp, hsp90 and hsp70). We detected population-specific responses between the two populations of F. distichus, as the Svalbard population revealed a smaller decrease in photosynthesis performance but a greater activation of molecular defence mechanisms (indicated by a wider repertoire of HSP genes and their stronger upregulation) compared with the Kirkenes population. Although the temperatures used in our study exceed temperatures encountered by F. distichus at the study sites, we believe response to these temperatures may serve as a proxy for the species’ potential to respond to climate-related stresses. PMID:26909170
Pacific Regional Solar Heating Handbook. Second Edition.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Writers' Development Trust, Toronto (Ontario).
This handbook is intended as a guide for engineers, architects, and individuals familiar with heating and ventilating applications who wish to design a solar heating system for a residential or small commercial building in the Pacific Coast Region. The climate of the region is discussed by selected cities in terms of the effect of climate on solar…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Crede, Erin; Borrego, Maura
2013-01-01
As part of a sequential exploratory mixed methods study, 9 months of ethnographically guided observations and interviews were used to develop a survey examining graduate engineering student retention. Findings from the ethnographic fieldwork yielded several themes, including international diversity, research group organization and climate,…
Assessment of Foundation Knowledge: Are Students Confident in Their Ability?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fenna, Doug S.
2004-01-01
Multiple-choice testing (MCT) has several advantages which are becoming more relevant in the current financial climate. In particular, they can be machine marked. As an objective testing method it is particularly relevant to engineering and other factual courses, but MCTs are not widely used in engineering because students can benefit from…
Perceptions and Practices of Data Sharing in Engineering Education
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Johri, Aditya; Yang, Seungwon; Vorvoreanu, Mihaela; Madhavan, Krishna
2016-01-01
As part of our NSF funded collaborative project on Data Sharing within Engineering Education Community, we conducted an empirical study to better understand the current climate of data sharing and participants' future expectations of the field. We present findings of this mixed method study and discuss implications. Overall, we found strong…
European Master-Doctorate Course on "Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lefèvre, R.-A.
2009-04-01
« Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change », European Master-Doctorate Course, Council of Europe, Strasbourg 7-11 September 2009 The character of Cultural Heritage is closely related to the climate, and the urban landscape and the built heritage have been designed with the local climate in mind. The stability of Cultural Heritage is, therefore, closely tied to its interactions with the ground and the atmosphere. Climate Change is thus expected to have either catastrophic or subtle effects on Cultural Heritage materials and Cultural Landscapes. The major aim of the 2009 Strasbourg Course is to ensure that young European students are informed on these important problems and will be able in the future to undertake rigorous ongoing scientific monitoring of changes in conditions of Cultural Heritage. The Programme of the Course will cover the following topics: • Heritage Climatology • Principles of Mitigation and Adaptation of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change • Impact of Climate Change on building structures • Dose-Response and Damage Functions for materials in a Changing Climate • Modelling sea salts transport and deposition • Modelling wetting and drying of historic buildings • Impact of Climate Change on building materials: stone, mortar, modern glass, stained glass windows • Impact of Climate Change on organic materials • Biological impact of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage • Sea level rise models and possible application to Cultural Heritage • Past, present and future for Venice • The policies and action plans of International Organisations (Council of Europe, UNESCO, ICCROM) The Course is addressed to young people with scientific background: physicists, chemists, geologists, biologists, engineers, because of the high scientific level of the background required to follow the lectures. Teaching will be delivered in English without any simultaneous translation. The teachers belong to European Universities, National Research Centres and International Organisations. There are no registration fees. Travel to Strasbourg and accommodation will be taken in charge by the Council of Europe after the selection of applications. Deadline for application: 15 June 2009. Information and application forms: • European University Centre for Cultural Heritage, Villa Rufolo, I-84010-Ravello, Italy, http://www.univeur.org univeur@univeur.org or Council of Europe, EUR-OPA, DG IV, F-67075-Strasbourg Cedex, http://www.coe.int/europarisks europa.risk@coe.int
Large-scale soil conservation measures contribute to water insecurity in NW China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Lulu; Feger, Karl-Heinz; Schwärzel, Kai
2014-05-01
The Loess Plateau of NW China is one of the most degraded environments worldwide with an annual soil loss rate of ~20,000 t/km². To improve the situation, a national policy against erosion has been implemented in this region since 1950s. This policy includes biological (tree and grass plantation) and engineering (terrace and check-dam construction) measures. However, subject to enormous alteration in land cover / form, an undesired drastic reduction of runoff has appeared hampering economic growth, agricultural production and thus threatening social stability. As a consequence, adaptive innovative management strategies are necessary for mitigating water use conflicts and ensuring regional sustainable development. For successful implementation of such strategies, an improved understanding and quantification of hydrological response to land use and climate change across different scales is essential. For this purpose, the hydrological response to different land cover / form and climate change in the past 50 years was analyzed in small and medium-scale catchments using the upstream of Jing River (Gansu province) as a case. It appears that the driving factors of runoff reduction at different scales are different in terms of land use and climate change. Our study gave evidence that in a small catchment (19 km²), land cover / form change and precipitation variability are the major factors reducing runoff. After separating their contribution, we found that land use change was responsible for 74% of runoff decline while decreased precipitation accounted for 26%. Surprisingly, the annual runoff exhibits a good correlation with precipitation and the percentage area of various land use. Notably, with increasing catchment size the impact of land use on runoff attenuates, while the role of climate ascends. In addition to land use and precipitation, energy supply (evaporative demand of the atmosphere) becomes another dominant climatic factor affecting runoff on the larger scale (3,080 km²). This indicates that the roles of land use and climate change in controlling runoff across different scales are not identical. According to sensitivity analysis, runoff appears more sensitive to precipitation than a comparable change in potential evapotranspiration. To quantify the hydrological response of runoff to a change in the studied factors, we developed an empirical statistical approach that incorporates temporal changes in land cover / form and climatic parameters for predicting annual runoff of this region. This approach has proved to have higher predictive ability than other models in reproducing annual and long-term runoff. It provided evidence that enlarging afforestation and terracing may cause a significant decline in runoff. Both measures may cause a more significant runoff reduction in relatively humid catchments than in relatively dry catchments in absolute terms. However, in terms of percentage, it is probably more critical for drier catchments, due to their more limited water availability. Our analysis demonstrates that the implementation of planning for ecosystem restoration on the Loess Plateau needs a comprehensive assessment that includes on-site effects on soil retention and off-site effects on runoff. Adaptive water-saving measures are urgent for ensuring water supply security in this dryland region of China.
We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...
Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation’s Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective
Unsworth, Kerrie L.; Russell, Sally V.; Davis, Matthew C.
2016-01-01
In this paper, we argue that individuals – as members of society – play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009
Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications
Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas
2005-01-01
Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.
Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.
Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C
2016-01-01
In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Killough, Brian; Stover, Shelley
2008-01-01
The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) provides a brief to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) regarding the CEOS Systems Engineering Office (SEO) and current work on climate requirements and analysis. A "system framework" is provided for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). SEO climate-related tasks are outlined including the assessment of essential climate variable (ECV) parameters, use of the "systems framework" to determine relevant informational products and science models and the performance of assessments and gap analyses of measurements and missions for each ECV. Climate requirements, including instruments and missions, measurements, knowledge and models, and decision makers, are also outlined. These requirements would establish traceability from instruments to products and services allowing for benefit evaluation of instruments and measurements. Additionally, traceable climate requirements would provide a better understanding of global climate models.
Common Warming Pattern Emerges Irrespective of Forcing Location
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kang, Sarah M.; Park, Kiwoong; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.
2017-10-01
The Earth's climate is changing due to the existence of multiple radiative forcing agents. It is under question whether different forcing agents perturb the global climate in a distinct way. Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of similar climate response patterns in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings. In this study, the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature response patterns to surface heating distributions is assessed by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean with a wide range of possible forcing patterns. We show that a common climate pattern emerges in response to localized forcing at different locations. This pattern, characterized by enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and the polar lower troposphere, resembles the historical trends from observations and models as well as the future projections. Atmospheric dynamics in combination with thermodynamic air-sea coupling are primarily responsible for shaping this pattern. Identifying this common pattern strengthens our confidence in the projected response to GHG and aerosols in complex climate models.
GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction
2011-12-01
GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.
Climate Literacy: STEM and Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing Applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reddy, S. R.
2015-12-01
NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) is a competitive project to promote climate and Earth system science literacy and seeks to increase the access of underrepresented minority groups to science careers and educational opportunities. A three year funding was received from NASA to partnership with JSU and MSU under cooperative agreement "Strengthening Global Climate Change education through Remote Sensing Application in Coastal Environment using NASA Satellite Data and Models". The goal is to increase the number of highschool and undergraduate students at Jackson State University, a Historically Black University, who are prepared to pursue higher academic degrees and careers in STEM fields. A five Saturday course/workshop was held during March/April 2015 at JSU, focusing on historical and technical concepts of math, enginneering, technology and atmosphere and climate change and remote sensing technology and applications to weather and climate. Nine students from meteorology, biology, industrial technology and computer science/engineering of JSU and 19 high scool students from Jackson Public Schools participated in the course/workshop. The lecture topics include: introduction to remote sensing and GIS, introduction to atmospheric science, math and engineering, climate, introduction to NASA innovations in climate education, introduction to remote sensing technology for bio-geosphere, introduction to earth system science, principles of paleoclimatology and global change, daily weather briefing, satellite image interpretation and so on. In addition to lectures, lab sessions were held for hand-on experiences for remote sensing applications to atmosphere, biosphere, earth system science and climate change using ERDAS/ENVI GIS software and satellite tools. Field trip to Barnett reservoir and National weather Service (NWS) was part of the workshop. Basics of Earth System Science is a non-mathematical introductory course designed for high school seniors, high school teachers and undergraduate students who may or may not have adequate exposure to fundamental concepts of the key components of the modern earth system and their interactions. This is an online course that will be delivered using Blackboard platform available at Jackson State University.
Effective control of complex turbulent dynamical systems through statistical functionals.
Majda, Andrew J; Qi, Di
2017-05-30
Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among complex systems in science and engineering, including climate, material, and neural science. Control of these complex systems is a grand challenge, for example, in mitigating the effects of climate change or safe design of technology with fully developed shear turbulence. Control of flows in the transition to turbulence, where there is a small dimension of instabilities about a basic mean state, is an important and successful discipline. In complex turbulent dynamical systems, it is impossible to track and control the large dimension of instabilities, which strongly interact and exchange energy, and new control strategies are needed. The goal of this paper is to propose an effective statistical control strategy for complex turbulent dynamical systems based on a recent statistical energy principle and statistical linear response theory. We illustrate the potential practical efficiency and verify this effective statistical control strategy on the 40D Lorenz 1996 model in forcing regimes with various types of fully turbulent dynamics with nearly one-half of the phase space unstable.
Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England
Lent, Robert M.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.
2015-01-01
Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.
Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.
Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried
2016-06-01
Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adams, P. N.; Jaeger, J. M.; MacKenzie, R. A.; Kline, S. W.; Maibauer, B. J.; Plant, N. G.; Gravens, M. B.; Pierro, T. P.; Shaffer, J.
2011-12-01
The salient of Cape Canaveral interrupts a relatively straight, sandy, passive margin coastline that extends nearly 400 km from the St. Johns River mouth to the St. Lucie Inlet along the Florida Atlantic coast. OSL dating indicates that the modern cape has been prograding rapidly since the LGM and subtle topographic features, inland from the modern cape, suggest that this salient has persisted over several sea level cycles since the early Pleistocene. Dynamic shoreline change over the past decade at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is threatening critical NASA infrastructure and has prompted officials to develop a mitigation strategy through a partnership among researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, private coastal engineering firms, and the University of Florida. Since May 2009, the research team has assembled data on decadal to event-scale shoreline change (dGPS), beach and nearshore morphodynamics (dGPS and Argus), beach sedimentary character (grain size analysis), wave climate and transformation (ADCP), and inner shelf bathymetry (Echo Sounding) in an effort to assess dune vulnerability and flooding risk. In addition, SWAN numerical modeling simulations offer insight into the influence of irregular bathymetry (cape-associated shoals) on the alteration of spatial patterns of wave energy flux during a decadal shift in deep-water wave climate. Beach-fx, modeling of cross-shore profile evolution is being applied to evaluate the performance of alternative protective measures, estimate project costs, and examine ecological influences of the proposed alternative protective measures. By combining contemporaneous data of coastal geomorphic and sedimentary response to wave forcing with numerical model results that explore a range of climate scenarios, we aim to develop a useful understanding of the coastal geomorphic behavior at KSC that can be used to make a mitigation recommendation.
The Emergence of Land Use as a Global Force in the Earth System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ellis, E. C.
2015-12-01
Human societies have emerged as a global force capable of transforming the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere and climate. As a result, the long-term dynamics of the Earth system can no longer be understood or predicted without understanding their coupling with human societal dynamics. Here, a general causal theory is presented to explain why behaviorally modern humans, unlike any prior multicellular species, gained this unprecedented capacity to reshape the Earth system and how this societal capacity has changed from the Pleistocene to the present and future. Sociocultural niche construction theory, building on existing theories of ecosystem engineering, niche construction, the extended evolutionary synthesis, cultural evolution, ultrasociality and social change, can explain both the long-term upscaling of human societies and their unprecedented capacity to transform the Earth system. Regime shifts in human sociocultural niche construction, from the clearing of land using fire, to shifting cultivation, to intensive agriculture, to global food systems dependent on fossil fuel combustion, have enabled human societies to scale up while gaining the capacity to reshape the global patterns and processes of biogeography, ecosystems, landscapes, biomes, the biosphere, and ultimately the functioning of the Earth system. Just as Earth's geophysical climate system shapes the long-term dynamics of energy and material flow across the "spheres" of the Earth system, human societies, interacting at global scale to form "human systems", are increasingly shaping the global dynamics of energy, material, biotic and information flow across the spheres of the Earth system, including a newly emerged anthroposphere comprised of human societies and their material cultures. Human systems and the anthroposphere are strongly coupled with climate and other Earth systems and are dynamic in response to evolutionary changes in human social organization, cooperative ecosystem engineering, non-kin exchange relationships, and energy systems. It is hoped that intentional societal efforts to alter the dynamics of human systems can ultimately move Earth systems towards more beneficial and less detrimental outcomes for both human societies and nonhuman species.
James H Speer; Henry D Grission-Mayer; Kenneth H Orivs; Cathryn H: Greenberg
2009-01-01
The climatic response of trees that occupy closed canopy forests in the eastern United States (US) is important to understanding the possible trajectory these forests may lake in response to a warming climate. Our study examined tree rings of 664 trees from five oak species (white (Querclus alba L), black (Quercus "velutina Lam...
Streamflow response to climate and landuse changes in a coastal watershed in North Carolina
S. Qi; G. Sun; Y. Wang; S.G. McNulty; J.A. Moore Myers
2009-01-01
It is essential to examine the sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate and landuse change across different physiographic regions in order to formulate sound water management policies for local response to projected global change. This study used the a simulation model to examine the potential impacts of climate and landuse changes on streamflow of the...
Rulifson, Greg; Bielefeldt, Angela R
2018-03-20
Engineers should learn how to act on their responsibility to society during their education. At present, however, it is unknown what students think about the meaning of socially responsible engineering. This paper synthesizes 4 years of longitudinal interviews with engineering students as they progressed through college. The interviews revolved broadly around how students saw the connections between engineering and social responsibility, and what influenced these ideas. Using the Weidman Input-Environment-Output model as a framework, this research found that influences included required classes such as engineering ethics, capstone design, and some technical courses, pre-college volunteering and familial values, co-curricular groups such as Engineers Without Borders and the Society of Women Engineers, as well as professional experiences through internships. Further, some experiences such as technical courses and engineering internships contributed to confine students' understanding of an engineer's social responsibility. Overall, students who stayed in engineering tended to converge on basic responsibilities such as safety and bettering society as a whole, but tended to become less concerned with improving the lives of the marginalized and disadvantaged. Company loyalty also became important for some students. These results have valuable, transferable contributions, providing guidance to foster students' ideas on socially responsible engineering.
Holocene Substrate Influences on Plant and Fire Response to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Briles, C.; Whitlock, C. L.
2011-12-01
The role of substrates in facilitating plant responses to climate change in the past has received little attention. Ecological studies, documenting the relative role of fertile and infertile substrates in mediating the effects of climate change, lack the temporal information that paleoecological lake studies provide on how plants have responded under equal, larger and more rapid past climate events than today. In this paper, pollen and macroscopic charcoal preserved in the sediments of eight lakes surrounded by infertile ultramafic soils and more fertile soils in the Klamath Mountains of northern California were analyzed. Comparison of late-Quaternary paleoecological sites suggests that infertile and fertile substrates supported distinctly different plant communities. Trees and shrubs on infertile substrates were less responsive to climate change than those on fertile substrates, with the only major compositional change occurring at the glacial/interglacial transition (~11.5ka), when temperature rose 5oC. Trees and shrubs on fertile substrates were more responsive to climate changes, and tracked climate by moving along elevational gradients, including during more recent climate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Fire regimes were similar until 4ka on both substrate types. After 4ka, understory fuels on infertile substrates became sparse and fire activity decreased, while on fertile substrates forests became increasingly denser and fire activity increased. The complacency of plant communities on infertile sites to climate change contrasts with the individualistic and rapid adjustments of species on fertile sites. The findings differ from observations on shorter time scales that show the most change in herb cover and richness in the last 60 years on infertile substrates. Thus, the paleorecord provides unique long-term ecological data necessary to evaluate the response of plants to future climate change under different levels of soil fertility.
Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.
2017-01-01
The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.
Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten
2009-06-11
The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.
Climate Response of Tree Radial Growth at Different Timescales in the Qinling Mountains.
Sun, Changfeng; Liu, Yu
2016-01-01
The analysis of the tree radial growth response to climate is crucial for dendroclimatological research. However, the response relationships between tree-ring indices and climatic factors at different timescales are not yet clear. In this study, the tree-ring width of Huashan pine (Pinus armandii) from Huashan in the Qinling Mountains, north-central China, was used to explore the response differences of tree growth to climatic factors at daily, pentad (5 days), dekad (10 days) and monthly timescales. Correlation function and linear regression analysis were applied in this paper. The tree-ring width showed a more sensitive response to daily and pentad climatic factors. With the timescale decreasing, the absolute value of the maximum correlation coefficient between the tree-ring data and precipitation increases as well as temperature (mean, minimum and maximum temperature). Compared to the other three timescales, pentad was more suitable for analysing the response of tree growth to climate. Relative to the monthly climate data, the association between the tree-ring data and the pentad climate data was more remarkable and accurate, and the reconstruction function based on the pentad climate was also more reliable and stable. We found that the major climatic factor limiting Huashan pine growth was the precipitation of pentads 20-35 (from April 6 to June 24) rather than the well-known April-June precipitation. The pentad was also proved to be a better timescale for analysing the climate and tree growth in the western and eastern Qinling Mountains. The formation of the earlywood density of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) from Shimenshan in western Qinling was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of pentads 28-32 (from May 16 to June 9). The maximum temperature of pentads 28-33 (from May 16 to June 14) was the major factor affecting the ring width of Chinese pine from Shirenshan in eastern Qinling.
Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub
Richardson, Bryce A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Pendleton, Rosemary L.; Pendleton, Burton K.; Germino, Matthew J.; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Meyer, Susan E.
2014-01-01
Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species–climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep clines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.
Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.
2015-07-01
Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.
Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub.
Richardson, Bryce A; Kitchen, Stanley G; Pendleton, Rosemary L; Pendleton, Burton K; Germino, Matthew J; Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Meyer, Susan E
2014-03-01
Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species-climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep dines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.
Assessing the role of Climate Variability in the recent evolution of coastlines in southern Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Di Paola, Gianluigi; Atkinson, David; Rosskopf, Carmen M.; Walker, Ian
2016-04-01
During the last century, Climatic Variability (CV) and change effects have generated a discernable impact on the world's coasts, most notably through changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of storm surges, flooding, coastal erosion and sea-level rise. This study explores CV signals and coastal responses along a 36 km stretch of coast in the Molise region of southern Italy on the Central Adriatic Sea. Two dominant signals of CV in the Mediterranean region of Europe are characterized by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) patterns. The NAO is the leading mode of CV in the North Atlantic region and periods with positive NAO index values are typically associated with above average wind speeds across the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic and western Europe, with anomalously northerly flows across the Mediterranean region and enhanced trade winds over the sub-tropical North Atlantic. Although NAO is one of the most prominent patterns in all seasons, its relative role in regulating the variability of the European climate during non-winter months is not as clear as for the winter season. In contrast, the EAWR exerts strong influence on precipitation in the Mediterranean region such that, during the negative phase of EAWR, wetter conditions prevail across central Europe and the Mediterranean region, with precipitation extremes often occurring during these periods. This study examines the effects of NAO and EAWR on coastline response in the Molise region, which has a microtidal regime (ordinary tidal excursions of 30-40 cm). GIS analysis of shoreline changes from historical aerial photography from 1954-2011 was performed and 20 years (1989-2008) of wave data were analysed from the nearby Ortona buoy to define trends and extreme event occurrence in the wave climate in the study area. Finally, statistical associations between NAO, EAWR, and other CV indices of possible influence (e.g. Arctic Oscillation, Scandinavia Pattern, or the East Atlantic pattern) and shoreline position changes were explored in order to identify linkages between CV forcing and coastal response in this region. The study demonstrates that the recent evolution of the Molise coastline is responding to changes in the wave climate and increases in the frequency and intensity of storm surges in recent years. Coastal response in the region is also strongly controlled by engineering interventions, such as backwater structures and groynes (almost the 75% of coastline is characterized by offshore defenses, above all around Biferno and Trigno mouths and Termoli harbor), and the interaction of the river systems that feed the coastline. This condition may mitigate some of the impacts of CV events that are observed elsewhere along intervening stretches of coast.
KIVA-hpFE. Predictive turbulent reactive and multiphase flow in engines - An Overview
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Carrington, David Bradley
2016-05-23
Research and development of KIVA-hpFE for turbulent reactive and multiphase flow particularly as related to engine modeling program has relevance to National energy security and climate change. Climate change is a source problem, and energy national security is consumption of petroleum products problem. Accurately predicting engine processes leads to, lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, where engines in the transportation sector currently account for 26% of the U.S. GHG emissions. Less dependence on petroleum products leads to greater energy security. By Environmental Protection Agency standards, some vehicles are now reaching 42 to the 50 mpg mark. These are conventional gasoline engines.more » Continued investment and research into new technical innovations, the potential exists to save more than 4 million barrels of oil per day or approximately $200 to $400 million per day. This would be a significant decrease in emission and use of petroleum and a very large economic stimulus too! It is estimated with further advancements in combustion, the current emissions can be reduced up to 40%. Enabling better understanding of fuel injection and fuel-air mixing, thermodynamic combustion losses, and combustion/emission formation processes enhances our ability to help solve both problems. To provide adequate capability for accurately simulating these processes, minimize time and labor for development of engine technology, are the goals of our KIVA development program.« less
Plastid biotechnology for crop production: present status and future perspectives
Daniell, Henry
2012-01-01
The world population is expected to reach an estimated 9.2 billion by 2050. Therefore, food production globally has to increase by 70% in order to feed the world, while total arable land, which has reached its maximal utilization, may even decrease. Moreover, climate change adds yet another challenge to global food security. In order to feed the world in 2050, biotechnological advances in modern agriculture are essential. Plant genetic engineering, which has created a new wave of global crop production after the first green revolution, will continue to play an important role in modern agriculture to meet these challenges. Plastid genetic engineering, with several unique advantages including transgene containment, has made significant progress in the last two decades in various biotechnology applications including development of crops with high levels of resistance to insects, bacterial, fungal and viral diseases, different types of herbicides, drought, salt and cold tolerance, cytoplasmic male sterility, metabolic engineering, phytoremediation of toxic metals and production of many vaccine antigens, biopharmaceuticals and biofuels. However, useful traits should be engineered via chloroplast genomes of several major crops. This review provides insight into the current state of the art of plastid engineering in relation to agricultural production, especially for engineering agronomic traits. Understanding the bottleneck of this technology and challenges for improvement of major crops in a changing climate are discussed. PMID:21437683
An Overview of Patient Safety Climate in the VA
Hartmann, Christine W; Rosen, Amy K; Meterko, Mark; Shokeen, Priti; Zhao, Shibei; Singer, Sara; Falwell, Alyson; Gaba, David M
2008-01-01
Objective To assess variation in safety climate across VA hospitals nationally. Study Setting Data were collected from employees at 30 VA hospitals over a 6-month period using the Patient Safety Climate in Healthcare Organizations survey. Study Design We sampled 100 percent of senior managers and physicians and a random 10 percent of other employees. At 10 randomly selected hospitals, we sampled an additional 100 percent of employees working in units with intrinsically higher hazards (high-hazard units [HHUs]). Data Collection Data were collected using an anonymous survey design. Principal Findings We received 4,547 responses (49 percent response rate). The percent problematic response—lower percent reflecting higher levels of patient safety climate—ranged from 12.0–23.7 percent across hospitals (mean=17.5 percent). Differences in safety climate emerged by management level, clinician status, and workgroup. Supervisors and front-line staff reported lower levels of safety climate than senior managers; clinician responses reflected lower levels of safety climate than those of nonclinicians; and responses of employees in HHUs reflected lower levels of safety climate than those of workers in other areas. Conclusions This is the first systematic study of patient safety climate in VA hospitals. Findings indicate an overall positive safety climate across the VA, but there is room for improvement. PMID:18355257
Franco Biondi; Scotty Strachan
2011-01-01
Predicting the future of high-elevation pine populations is closely linked to correctly interpreting their past responses to climatic variability. As a proxy index of climate, dendrochronological records have the advantage of seasonal to annual resolution over multiple centuries to millennia (Bradley 1999). All climate reconstructions rely on the 'uniformity...
Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity ...
Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on air temperatures and associated microclimatic changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of species and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.In this workshop, we will showcase the latest science on climate refugia and participants will interact through small group discussions, relevant examples, and facilitated dialogue to i
Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel
2014-01-01
The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized—and differentiated from common mitigation behavior—as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change—but not in motivational or socio-demographic links—with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries. PMID:25191841
Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.
deMenocal, P B
2001-04-27
Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.
Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results
Stocker, Thomas
2018-05-18
The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.
Laboratory Directed Research and Development FY2010 Annual Report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jackson, K J
2011-03-22
A premier applied-science laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has at its core a primary national security mission - to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile without nuclear testing, and to prevent and counter the spread and use of weapons of mass destruction: nuclear, chemical, and biological. The Laboratory uses the scientific and engineering expertise and facilities developed for its primary mission to pursue advanced technologies to meet other important national security needs - homeland defense, military operations, and missile defense, for example - that evolve in response to emerging threats. For broader nationalmore » needs, LLNL executes programs in energy security, climate change and long-term energy needs, environmental assessment and management, bioscience and technology to improve human health, and for breakthroughs in fundamental science and technology. With this multidisciplinary expertise, the Laboratory serves as a science and technology resource to the U.S. government and as a partner with industry and academia. This annual report discusses the following topics: (1) Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation; (2) Biological Sciences; (3) Chemistry; (4) Earth and Space Sciences; (5) Energy Supply and Use; (6) Engineering and Manufacturing Processes; (7) Materials Science and Technology; Mathematics and Computing Science; (8) Nuclear Science and Engineering; and (9) Physics.« less
Fixing the Sky: Why the History of Climate Engineering Matters (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleming, J. R.
2010-12-01
What shall we do about climate change? Is a planetary-scale technological fix possible or desirable? The joint AMS and AGU “Policy Statement on Geoengineering the Climate System” (2009) recommends “Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social implications of geoengineering that integrates international, interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectives and includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather and climate.” I wrote Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control (Columbia University Press, 2010) with this recommendation in mind, to be fully accessible to scientists, policymakers, and the general public, while meeting or exceeding the scholarly standards of history. It is my intent, with this book, to bring history to bear on public policy issues.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.;
2016-01-01
The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.
Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems
Munson, Seth M.
2013-01-01
Plant species in dryland ecosystems are limited by water availability and may be vulnerable to increases in aridity. Methods are needed to monitor and assess the rate of change in plant abundance and composition in relation to climate, understand the potential for degradation in dryland ecosystems, and forecast future changes in plant species assemblages. I employ nearly a century of vegetation monitoring data from three North American deserts to demonstrate an approach to determine plant species responses to climate and critical points over a range of climatic conditions at which plant species shift from increases to decreases in abundance (climate pivot points). I assess these metrics from a site to regional scale and highlight how these indicators of plant performance can be modified by the physical and biotic environment. For example, shrubs were more responsive to drought and high temperatures on shallow soils with limited capacity to store water and fine-textured soils with slow percolation rates, whereas perennial grasses were more responsive to precipitation in sparse shrublands than in relatively dense grasslands and shrublands, where competition for water is likely more intense. The responses and associated climate pivot points of plant species aligned with their lifespan and structural characteristics, and the relationship between responses and climate pivot points provides evidence of the trade-off between the capacity of a plant species to increase in abundance when water is available and its drought resistance.
Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Willems, Patrick
2014-05-01
Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and still 8% for series of 25 years lengths. Methods for bias correction are demonstrated. The definition of "bias" depends on a number of factors, which needs further debate in the hydrological and water engineering community. References: Willems P. (2013), 'Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe', Climatic Change, 120(4), 931-944 Willems, P. (2013). 'Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations', Journal of Hydrology, 490, 126-133 Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.
2014-12-01
There is a need for environment engineers and sustainability managers to address global environmental, energy and health challenges. Environmental literacy programs at K-12 level provide a unique opportunity in motivating young minds in joining STEM and also provide additional value in learning about "saving planet earth". The Women in Engineering at the University of Illinois organize an annual week long camp, for female high school students with tracks corresponding to different fields of Engineering. The Environmental Engineering and Sustainability (EES) track is organized by faculty and graduate students of the Civil and Environmental Engineering department and introduces students to concepts in sustainability and systems thinking in connection with air and water quality, climate change and renewable energy. This study is a preliminary assessment of the relevance of the EES outreach track conducted in July 2014 in student learning. Specific goals include assessing (a) demographics of participants and their motivation to join this camp, (b) educational and enjoyability quotients of the modules and (c) learning and motivational outcomes using the Likert scale. A pre-camp survey indicated keen interest in learning about environmental engineering (4.56/5.0) and expected this camp to be a venue to learn about related career choices (4.9/5.0). Five days of instruction were divided thematically and included a mix of lectures, activity based learning, demonstrations and field visits. Overall modules were rated as educational (4.4/5.0) and enjoyable (4.5/5.0). Modules with hands-on learning were best received (4.67/5.0) and rated unique (4.7/5.0). Post camp, participants acknowledged the important contribution of environmental engineers to society (4.8/5.0) and could relate the different modules to the role engineer's play (4.06/5.0) for sustainability. On an average, the participants evinced interest in engineering as a career choice (4.0/5.0) but there was a broader range of responses regarding environmental engineering as their career choice (3.13/5.0).
Beldade, Ricardo; Blandin, Agathe; O'Donnell, Rory; Mills, Suzanne C
2017-10-10
Organisms can behaviorally, physiologically, and morphologically adjust to environmental variation via integrative hormonal mechanisms, ultimately allowing animals to cope with environmental change. The stress response to environmental and social changes commonly promotes survival at the expense of reproduction. However, despite climate change impacts on population declines and diversity loss, few studies have attributed hormonal stress responses, or their regulatory effects, to climate change in the wild. Here, we report hormonal and fitness responses of individual wild fish to a recent large-scale sea warming event that caused widespread bleaching on coral reefs. This 14-month monitoring study shows a strong correlation between anemone bleaching (zooxanthellae loss), anemonefish stress response, and reproductive hormones that decreased fecundity by 73%. These findings suggest that hormone stress responses play a crucial role in changes to population demography following climate change and plasticity in hormonal responsiveness may be a key mechanism enabling individual acclimation to climate change.Elevated temperatures can cause anemones to bleach, with unknown effects on their associated symbiotic fish. Here, Beldade and colleagues show that climate-induced bleaching alters anemonefish hormonal stress response, resulting in decreased reproductive hormones and severely impacted reproduction.
Reports to the Nation on our changing planet. Winter 1991 No. 1: The climate system
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1991-01-01
This pamphlet is a semi-annual report for the period April 1992 through September 1992 dealing with the study of climatology. This introductory pamphlet treats in the simplest of terms such topics as climate change, the greenhouse effect, the global heat engine, hydrology, oceanography, computers and climatology, ice ages, and global warming. Informative charts are included.
Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective
Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.
2009-01-01
Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.
Safety climate and the distracted driving experiences of truck drivers.
Swedler, David I; Pollack, Keshia M; Agnew, Jacqueline
2015-07-01
For truck drivers, distracted driving is a workplace behavior that increases occupational injury risk. We propose safety climate as an appropriate lens through which researchers can examine occupational distracted driving. Using a mixed methods study design, we surveyed truck drivers using the Safety Climate Questionnaire (SCQ) complemented by semi-structured interviews of experts on distracted driving and truck safety. Safety climate was assessed by using the entire SCQ as an overall climate score, followed by factor analysis that identified the following safety climate factors: Communications and Procedures; Management Commitment; and Work Pressure. In multivariate regression, the overall safety climate scale was associated with having ever experienced a crash and/or distraction-involved swerving. Interview participants described how these SCQ constructs could affect occupational distracted driving. To reduce distraction-related crashes in their organizations, management can adhere to safe policies and procedures, invest in engineering controls, and develop safer communication procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Brown, Christopher J; O'Connor, Mary I; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J
2016-04-01
Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Undergraduate engineering student experiences: Comparing sex, gender and switcher status
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fergen, Brenda Sue
This dissertation explores undergraduate engineering experiences, comparing men with women and switchers with non-switchers. Factors related to a chilly academic climate and gender-role socialization are hypothesized to contribute to variations in men's and women's academic experiences and persistence rates. Both quantitative and qualitative data are utilized in an effort to triangulate the findings. Secondary survey data, acquired as result of a 1992 Academic Environment Survey, were utilized to test the hypothesis that sex is the most important predictor (i.e., demographic variable) of perceptions of academic climate. Regression analyses show that sex by itself is not always a significant determinant. However, when sex and college (engineering vs. other) are combined into dummy variables, they are statistically significant in models where sex was not significant alone. This finding indicates that looking at sex differences alone may be too simplistic. Thirty personal interviews were conducted with a random stratified sample of undergraduate students from the 1993 engineering cohort. The interview data indicate that differences in childhood socialization are important. With regard to persistence, differences in socialization are greater for switchers vs. non-switchers than men vs. women. Thus, gender-role socialization does not appear to play as prominent a role in women's persistence as past literature would indicate. This may be due to the self-selection process that occurs among women who choose to pursue engineering. Other aspects of childhood socialization such as parents' level of educational and occupation, students' high school academic preparation and knowledge of what to expect of college classes appear to be more important. In addition, there is evidence that, for women, male siblings play an important role in socialization. There is also evidence that women engineering students at Midwestern University face a chilly academic climate. The factors which appear to contribute the most to an inhospitable atmosphere include subtle behaviors on the part of faculty and administrators and blatant sexist, derogatory and hostile comments and jokes on the part of male undergraduate students. Personal interview data indicate continued resistance among some male administrators, faculty and students to women pursuing majors in engineering.
The Role of Program Climate and Socialization in the Retention of Engineering Undergraduates
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ureksoy, Heather
2011-01-01
Increasing women's participation in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) can promote a healthy economy by ensuring a diverse and well-qualified STEM workforce, not only in the quantity of females in the workforce, but diversity in thinking and creativity. It will also send a positive message to young women about…
Climate Controls on Tree Growth Across Species and Sites in Northeastern Arizona
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schwan, M. R.; Guiterman, C. H.; Anchukaitis, K. J.
2016-12-01
Understanding how forests will respond to ongoing climate change is important for conservation and resource management. Conifer forests in the US Southwest are predicted to be particularly at risk from increased drought and higher temperatures projected to occur in the region. Tree-ring studies shed light on how trees respond to climate, but there remains considerable uncertainty as to which climate factors are most important, and which species are most at risk. Confounding climate and environmental factors, biological differences among species, and biogeography often complicate cross-species analysis. Here we present a multi-species, multivariate analysis of tree growth response to climate variability. We analyze data from three coexisting conifer tree species at two sites near Canyon de Chelly, Arizona. We use a high-resolution PRISM gridded climate dataset to determine the growth responses across species and sites to temperature and precipitation. We identify both common and differential responses in our data and use these to infer possible risks these forest communities may face under a changing climate.
Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans
Lorenzen, Eline D.; Nogués-Bravo, David; Orlando, Ludovic; Weinstock, Jaco; Binladen, Jonas; Marske, Katharine A.; Ugan, Andrew; Borregaard, Michael K.; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Nielsen, Rasmus; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Goebel, Ted; Graf, Kelly E.; Byers, David; Stenderup, Jesper T.; Rasmussen, Morten; Campos, Paula F.; Leonard, Jennifer A.; Koepfli, Klaus-Peter; Froese, Duane; Zazula, Grant; Stafford, Thomas W.; Aaris-Sørensen, Kim; Batra, Persaram; Haywood, Alan M.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Valdes, Paul J.; Boeskorov, Gennady; Burns, James A.; Davydov, Sergey P.; Haile, James; Jenkins, Dennis L.; Kosintsev, Pavel; Kuznetsova, Tatyana; Lai, Xulong; Martin, Larry D.; McDonald, H. Gregory; Mol, Dick; Meldgaard, Morten; Munch, Kasper; Stephan, Elisabeth; Sablin, Mikhail; Sommer, Robert S.; Sipko, Taras; Scott, Eric; Suchard, Marc A.; Tikhonov, Alexei; Willerslev, Rane; Wayne, Robert K.; Cooper, Alan; Hofreiter, Michael; Sher, Andrei; Shapiro, Beth; Rahbek, Carsten; Willerslev, Eske
2014-01-01
Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary remain contentious. We use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, underscoring the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change. PMID:22048313
Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shindell, Drew T.
2014-01-01
Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.
A climate responsive urban design tool: a platform to improve energy efficiency in a dry hot climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
El Dallal, Norhan; Visser, Florentine
2017-09-01
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, new urban developments should address the climatic conditions to improve outdoor comfort and to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. This article describes a design tool that supports climate responsive design for a dry hot climate. The approach takes the climate as an initiator for the conceptual urban form with a more energy-efficient urban morphology. The methodology relates the different passive strategies suitable for major climate conditions in MENA region (dry-hot) to design parameters that create the urban form. This parametric design approach is the basis for a tool that generates conceptual climate responsive urban forms so as to assist the urban designer early in the design process. Various conceptual scenarios, generated by a computational model, are the results of the proposed platform. A practical application of the approach is conducted on a New Urban Community in Aswan (Egypt), showing the economic feasibility of the resulting urban form and morphology, and the proposed tool.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Carrington, David Bradley; Waters, Jiajia
Research and development of KIVA-hpFE for turbulent reactive and multiphase flow particularly as related to engine modeling program has relevance to National energy security and climate change. Climate change is a source problem, and energy national security is consumption of petroleum products problem. Accurately predicting engine processes leads to, lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, where engines in the transportation sector currently account for 26% of the U.S. GHG emissions. Less dependence on petroleum products leads to greater energy security. By Environmental Protection Agency standards, some vehicles are now reaching 42 to the 50 mpg mark. These are conventional gasoline engines.more » Continued investment and research into new technical innovations, the potential exists to save more than 4 million barrels of oil per day or approximately $200 to $400 million per day. This would be a significant decrease in emission and use of petroleum and a very large economic stimulus too! It is estimated with further advancements in combustion, the current emissions can be reduced up to 40%. Enabling better understanding of fuel injection and fuel-air mixing, thermodynamic combustion losses, and combustion/emission formation processes enhances our ability to help solve both problems. To provide adequate capability for accurately simulating these processes, minimize time and labor for development of engine technology, are the goals of our KIVA development program.« less
Danelle M. Laflower; Matthew D. Hurteau; George W. Koch; Malcolm P. North; Bruce A. Hungate
2016-01-01
Projecting the response of forests to changing climate requires understanding how biotic and abiotic controls on tree growth will change over time. As temperature and interannual precipitation variability increase, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to changing climate. Management actions that alter composition...
Nan Lu; Ge Sun; Xiaoming Feng; Bojie Fu
2013-01-01
China is facing a growing water crisis due to climate and land use change, and rise in human water demand across this rapidly developing country. Understanding the spatial and temporal ecohydrologic responses to climate change is critical to sustainable water resource management. We investigated water yield (WY) responses to historical (1981â2000) and projected...
Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment ...
This draft report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes. The analyses suggest that several biological indicators may be used to detect climate change effects and such indicators can be used by state bioassessment programs to document changes at high-quality reference sites. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes.
Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart
2017-04-01
Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Heckendorn, Patricia; Peter. Thomas; Keith, David W.
2010-01-01
Recent analysis suggests that the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol climate engineering through emission of non-condensable vapors such as SO2 is limited because the slow conversion to H2SO4 tends to produce aerosol particles that are too large; SO2 injection may be so inefficient that it is difficult to counteract the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling. Here we describe an alternate method in which aerosol is formed rapidly in the plume following injection of H2SO4, a condensable vapor, from an aircraft. This method gives better control of particle size and can produce larger radiative forcing with lower sulfur loadings than SO2 injection. Relative to SO2 injection, it may reduce some of the adverse effects of geoengineering such as radiative heating of the lower stratosphere. This method does not, however, alter the fact that such a geoengineered radiative forcing can, at best, only partially compensate for the climate changes produced by CO2.
Adapting Water Infrastructure to Non-stationary Climate ...
Water supply and sanitation are carried out by three major types of water infrastructure: drinking water treatment and distribution, wastewater collection and treatment, and storm water collection and management. Their sustainability is measured by resilience against and adaptability to an evolving factor; here it refers to the change of climate and its hydrologic impacts. The term resilience is defined as the ability to repair and recover its physical state and service function under the impacts of external forces (Milman and Short, 2008; McDaniels et al., 2008). In this context, capacity reserve (CR) is one very important physical attribute of system’s resilience; further details will be described later in this section and in the subsequent Chapter 1.7. While service function of a water infrastructure varies geographically among municipalities, its general engineering and management follow a triple bottom line of objectives: system reliability, environmental sustainability, and engineering economics. Communicate to science community and practitioners on the climate change adaptation to increase water infrastructure resilience by adaptation design
Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) Project Overview
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carlisle, Candace; Wedge, Ronnice; Wu, Dong; Stello, Harry; Robinson, Renee
2015-01-01
The main objective of the Total and Spectral solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) is to acquire measurements to determine the direct and indirect effects of solar radiation on climate. TSIS total solar irradiance measurements will extend a 37-year long uninterrupted measurement record of incoming solar radiation, the dominant energy source driving the Earths climate and the most precise indicator of changes in the Suns energy output. TSIS solar spectral irradiance measurements will determine the regions of the Earths multi-layered atmosphere that are affected by solar variability, from which the solar forcing mechanisms causing changes in climate can be quantified. TSIS includes two instruments: the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), integrated into a single payload. The TSIS TIM and SIM instruments are upgraded versions of the two instruments that are flying on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission launched in January 2003. TSIS was originally planned for the nadir-pointing National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) spacecraft. The TSIS instrument passed a Critical Design Review (CDR) for NPOESS in December 2009. In 2010, TSIS was re-planned for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Polar Free Flyer (PFF). The TSIS TIM, SIM, and associated electronics were built, tested, and successfully completed pre-ship review as of December 2013.In early 2014, NOAA and NASA agreed to fly TSIS on the International Space Station (ISS). In the FY16 Presidents Budget, NASA assumes responsibility for the TSIS mission on ISS. The TSIS project includes requirements, interface, design, build and test of the TSIS payload, including an updated pointing system, for accommodation on the ISS. It takes advantage of the prior development of the TSIS sensors and electronics. The International Space Station (ISS) program contributions include launch services and robotic installation of the TSIS payload onto an ISS Express Logistics Carrier, mission operations, and communications. Total and Spectral solar irradiance data products will be produced, calibrated, and made publically available through the Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC).The NASA GSFC TSIS project at GSFC is responsible for project management, system engineering, safety and mission assurance, and engineering oversight for the TSIS payload. The TSIS project has contracted with the University of Colorado Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) for the design, development and testing of TSIS, support for ISS integration, science operations of the TSIS instrument, data processing, data evaluation and delivery to the GES DISC. TSIS will be delivered to Kennedy Space Center for integration in 2017, with launch and installation onto ISS planned for late 2017-early 2018. After a 90-day check-out period, NASA plans five years of TSIS operations.
Estimating glacier response times and disequilibrium in a changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Christian, J. E.; Koutnik, M.; Roe, G.
2017-12-01
Glaciers respond to climate variations according to a characteristic timescale that, for most mountain glaciers, is on the order of 10—100 years. An important consequence of this multi-decadal memory is that a glacier's transient response to a climate trend exhibits a persistent lag behind the equilibrium response. In the context of anthropogenic warming, this means that most glaciers are currently well out of equilibrium, and that a substantial amount of retreat is committed even without further warming. The degree of disequilibrium depends fundamentally on the glacier response timescale, making it an important parameter to constrain. A common and robust metric for the response timescale is τ=H/bt, where H and bt are characteristic values for ice thickness and the terminus mass-balance rate, respectively. However, sparse observations, climate variability, and glacier disequilibrium make it difficult to define these characteristic values. We compare several sources of uncertainty that will affect estimates of the response timescale and thus the degree of disequilibrium. Ice thickness is poorly constrained for many glaciers, which bears directly on estimates of the response timescale. However, errors may also arise from estimating thickness and mass-balance rates in a variable climate. We assess how noisy mass balance and observed terminus fluctuations introduce sampling errors into estimates of the glacier's response timescale and the expected equilibrium response to a climate change. Additionally, the instantaneous value of τ evolves during sustained warming as the glacier thins and retreats. Perhaps counterintuitively, τ can increase if retreat into higher elevations exceeds thinning. This has implications for estimating the timescale based on currently observed geometry and mass balance. We use shallow-ice and 3-stage linear models to explore these effects with synthetic glacier geometries and climate forcings. In this way, we can diagnose the geometric and climatic sources of uncertainty in glacier response timescales and degrees of disequilibrium. Estimating these metrics from existing datasets is necessary to relate mass balance to glacier state and to anticipate future responses; our analyses will help constrain such estimates and improve understanding of their limitations.
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) ...
Hydrological Climate Classification: Can We Improve on Köppen-Geiger?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Knoben, W.; Woods, R. A.; Freer, J. E.
2017-12-01
Classification is essential in the study of complex natural systems, yet hydrology so far has no formal way to structure the climate forcing which underlies hydrologic response. Various climate classification systems can be borrowed from other disciplines but these are based on different organizing principles than a hydrological classification might use. From gridded global data we calculate a gridded aridity index, an aridity seasonality index and a rain-vs-snow index, which we use to cluster global locations into climate groups. We then define the membership degree of nearly 1100 catchments to each of our climate groups based on each catchment's climate and investigate the extent to which streamflow responses within each climate group are similar. We compare this climate classification approach with the often-used Köppen-Geiger classification, using statistical tests based on streamflow signature values. We find that three climate indices are sufficient to distinguish 18 different climate types world-wide. Climates tend to change gradually in space and catchments can thus belong to multiple climate groups, albeit with different degrees of membership. Streamflow responses within a climate group tend to be similar, regardless of the catchments' geographical proximity. A Wilcoxon two-sample test based on streamflow signature values for each climate group shows that the new classification can distinguish different flow regimes using this classification scheme. The Köppen-Geiger approach uses 29 climate classes but is less able to differentiate streamflow regimes. Climate forcing exerts a strong control on typical hydrologic response and both change gradually in space. This makes arbitrary hard boundaries in any classification scheme difficult to defend. Any hydrological classification should thus acknowledge these gradual changes in forcing. Catchment characteristics (soil or vegetation type, land use, etc) can vary more quickly in space than climate does, which can explain streamflow differences between geographically close locations. Summarizing, this work shows that hydrology needs its own way to structure climate forcing, acknowledging that climates vary gradually on a global scale and explicitly including those climate aspects that drive seasonal changes in hydrologic regimes.
Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan
2011-12-01
Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg(-1) dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (A(sat)) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A(sat) in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models
Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Pederson, Neil; Tingley, Martin; Bishop, Daniel
2016-01-01
Reconstruction of pre-instrumental, late Holocene climate is important for understanding how climate has changed in the past and how climate might change in the future. Statistical prediction of paleoclimate from tree ring widths is challenging because tree ring widths are a one-dimensional summary of annual growth that represents a multi-dimensional set of climatic and biotic influences. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework using a nonlinear, biologically motivated tree ring growth model to jointly reconstruct temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Valley, New York. Using a common growth function to describe the response of a tree to climate, we allow for species-specific parameterizations of the growth response. To enable predictive backcasts, we model the climate variables with a vector autoregressive process on an annual timescale coupled with a multivariate conditional autoregressive process that accounts for temporal correlation and cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation on a monthly scale. Our multi-scale temporal model allows for flexibility in the climate response through time at different temporal scales and predicts reasonable climate scenarios given tree ring width data.
Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?
Teplitsky, Celine; Millien, Virginie
2014-01-01
Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate. PMID:24454554
Stratospheric Aerosols for Solar Radiation Management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kravitz, Ben
SRM in the context of this entry involves placing a large amount of aerosols in the stratosphere to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, thereby cooling the surface and counteracting some of the warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The way this is accomplished depends on the specific aerosol used, but the basic mechanism involves backscattering and absorbing certain amounts of solar radiation aloft. Since warming from greenhouse gases is due to longwave (thermal) emission, compensating for this warming by reduction of shortwave (solar) energy is inherently imperfect, meaning SRM will have climate effects that are different from the effects of climate change. This will likely manifest in the form of regional inequalities, in that, similarly to climate change, some regions will benefit from SRM, while some will be adversely affected, viewed both in the context of present climate and a climate with high CO2 concentrations. These effects are highly dependent upon the means of SRM, including the type of aerosol to be used, the particle size and other microphysical concerns, and the methods by which the aerosol is placed in the stratosphere. SRM has never been performed, nor has deployment been tested, so the research up to this point has serious gaps. The amount of aerosols required is large enough that SRM would require a major engineering endeavor, although SRM is potentially cheap enough that it could be conducted unilaterally. Methods of governance must be in place before deployment is attempted, should deployment even be desired. Research in public policy, ethics, and economics, as well as many other disciplines, will be essential to the decision-making process. SRM is only a palliative treatment for climate change, and it is best viewed as part of a portfolio of responses, including mitigation, adaptation, and possibly CDR. At most, SRM is insurance against dangerous consequences that are directly due to increased surface air temperatures.
Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate. PMID:26288363
Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.
Betts, Richard A
2005-11-29
This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.
Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben
2018-02-01
Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khodayari, Arezoo; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Olsen, Seth C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne T.; Waitz, Ian; Wolfe, Philip; Forster, Piers M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Lee, David S.; Lim, Ling L.
2013-08-01
This study evaluates the capabilities of the carbon cycle and energy balance treatments relative to the effect of aviation CO2 emissions on climate in several existing simplified climate models (SCMs) that are either being used or could be used for evaluating the effects of aviation on climate. Since these models are used in policy-related analyses, it is important that the capabilities of such models represent the state of understanding of the science. We compare the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) Impacts climate model, two models used at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO-1 and CICERO-2), the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) model as described in Jain et al. (1994), the simple Linear Climate response model (LinClim) and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change version 6 (MAGICC6). In this paper we select scenarios to illustrate the behavior of the carbon cycle and energy balance models in these SCMs. This study is not intended to determine the absolute and likely range of the expected climate response in these models but to highlight specific features in model representations of the carbon cycle and energy balance models that need to be carefully considered in studies of aviation effects on climate. These results suggest that carbon cycle models that use linear impulse-response-functions (IRF) in combination with separate equations describing air-sea and air-biosphere exchange of CO2 can account for the dominant nonlinearities in the climate system that would otherwise not have been captured with an IRF alone, and hence, produce a close representation of more complex carbon cycle models. Moreover, results suggest that an energy balance model with a 2-box ocean sub-model and IRF tuned to reproduce the response of coupled Earth system models produces a close representation of the globally-averaged temperature response of more complex energy balance models.
Teets, Aaron; Fraver, Shawn; Weiskittel, Aaron R; Hollinger, David Y
2018-03-11
A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year-to-year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree-ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year-to-year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand-level (as opposed to species-level) growth. We argue that stand-level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed-species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand-level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year-to-year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand-level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species- and canopy-position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand-level biomass increment than to species-level or canopy-position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand-level growth varies less from to year-to-year than species-level or canopy-position growth responses. By assessing stand-level growth response to climate, we provide an alternative perspective on climate-growth relationships of forests, improving our understanding of forest growth dynamics under a fluctuating climate. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
de Luis, Martin; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Novak, Klemen; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Raventós, José; Saz, Miguel Angel; Smith, Kevin T.
2013-01-01
We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships. PMID:24391786
Passive fire protection--a vital safety role.
MacInnes, Callum; Rankin, Richard
2012-06-01
Callum Maclnnes BSc (Hons), AIFireE, an engineer at WSP UK--part of a global design engineering and management consultancy group specialising in property, transport and infrastructure, industry and environment projects--and his colleague, senior engineer, Richard Rankin CEng MEng (Hons) MIFireE, discuss the importance of passive fire protection in healthcare premises at a time when, due particularly to the difficult financial climate, many hospitals are undergoing upgrading and refurbishment, potentially affording an ideal opportunity to ensure that proper fire compartmentation measures are in place.
Zhang, Lisheng; Zhang, Lingling; Shi, Dongtao; Wei, Jing; Chang, Yaqing
2017-01-01
Increases in ocean temperature due to climate change are predicted to change the behaviors of marine invertebrates. Altered behaviors of keystone ecosystem engineers such as echinoderms will have consequences for the fitness of individuals, which are expected to flow on to the local ecosystem. Relatively few studies have investigated the behavioral responses of echinoderms to long-term elevated temperature. We investigated the effects of exposure to long-term (∼31 weeks) elevated temperature (∼3 °C above the ambient water temperature) on covering, sheltering and righting behaviors of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius. Long-term elevated temperature showed different effects on the three behaviors. It significantly decreased covering behavior, including both covering behavior reaction (time to first covering) and ability (number of covered sea urchins and number of shells used for covering). Conversely, exposure to long-term elevated temperature significantly increased sheltering behavior. Righting response in S. intermedius was not significantly different between temperature treatments. The results provide new information into behavioral responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. PMID:28348933
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.
2014-10-01
Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.
Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping
2018-01-01
Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700
Vegetation Health and Productivity Indicators for Sustained National Climate Assessments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, M. O.; Running, S. W.
2014-12-01
The National Climate Assessment process is developing a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public. Implementing a 14 year record of Gross and Net Primary Productivity (GPP/NPP) derived from the NASA EOS MODIS satellite sensor we demonstrate how these products can serve as Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health National Climate Indicators for implementation in sustained National Climate Assessments. The NPP product combines MODIS vegetation data with daily global meteorology to calculate annual growth of all plant material at 1 sq. km resolution. NPP anomalies identify regions with above or below average plant growth that may result from climate fluctuations and can inform carbon source/sink dynamics, agricultural and forestry yield measures, and response to wildfire or drought conditions. The GPP product provides a high temporal resolution (8-day) metric of vegetation growth which can be used to monitor short-term vegetation response to extreme events and implemented to derive vegetation phenology metrics; growing season start, end, and length, which can elucidate land cover and regionally specific vegetation responses to a changing climate. The high spatial resolution GPP and NPP indicators can also inform and clarify responses seen from other proposed Pilot Indicators such as forest growth/productivity, land cover, crop production, and phenology. The GPP and NPP data are in continuous production and will be sustained into the future with the next generation satellite missions. The long-term Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health Indicators are ideal for use in sustained National Climate Assessments, providing regionally specific responses to a changing climate and complete coverage at the national scale.
Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.
Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica
2016-10-01
Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang
2018-01-01
The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.
Mitigation and adaptation within a climate change policy portfolio: A research program
It is now recognized that optimal global climate policy is a portfolio of the two key responses for reducing the risks of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Significant differences between the two responses have inhibited understanding of how to appropriately view these...
Muths, Erin L.; Chambert, Thierry A.; Schmidt, B. R.; Miller, D. A. W.; Hossack, Blake R.; Joly, P.; Grolet, O.; Green, D. M.; Pilliod, David S.; Cheylan, M.; Fisher, Robert N.; McCaffery, R. M.; Adams, M. J.; Palen, W. J.; Arntzen, J. W.; Garwood, J.; Fellers, Gary M.; Thirion, J. M.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Besnard, A.
2017-01-01
The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and population-specific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation ‘rules of thumb’ for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dessens, Olivier
2016-04-01
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of analysing GCMs with the step-experiments. Acknowledgments: This work is supported by the FP7 HELIX project (www.helixclimate.eu) References: Anandarajah, G., Pye, S., Usher, W., Kesicki, F., & Mcglade, C. (2011). TIAM-UCL Global model documentation. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/tiam-ucl/tiam-ucl-manual Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., & Andrews, T. (2013). Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections. Climate Dynamics, 40(3-4), 1041-1053.
Sex segregation in undergraduate engineering majors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Litzler, Elizabeth
Gender inequality in engineering persists in spite of women reaching parity in college enrollments and degrees granted. To date, no analyses of educational sex segregation have comprehensively examined segregation within one discipline. To move beyond traditional methods of studying the long-standing stratification by field of study in higher education, I explore gender stratification within one field: engineering. This dissertation investigates why some engineering disciplines have a greater representation of women than other engineering disciplines. I assess the individual and institutional factors and conditions associated with women's representation in certain engineering departments and compare the mechanisms affecting women's and men's choice of majors. I use national data from the Engineering Workforce Commission, survey data from 21 schools in the Project to Assess Climate in Engineering study, and Carnegie Foundation classification information to study sex segregation in engineering majors from multiple perspectives: the individual, major, institution, and country. I utilize correlations, t-tests, cross-tabulations, log-linear modeling, multilevel logistic regression and weighted least squares regression to test the relative utility of alternative explanations for women's disproportionate representation across engineering majors. As a whole, the analyses illustrate the importance of context and environment for women's representation in engineering majors. Hypotheses regarding hostile climate and discrimination find wide support across different analyses, suggesting that women's under-representation in certain engineering majors is not a question of choice or ability. However, individual level factors such as having engineering coursework prior to college show an especially strong association with student choice of major. Overall, the analyses indicate that institutions matter, albeit less for women, and women's under-representation in engineering is not reducible to individual choice. This dissertation provides a broad, descriptive view of the state of sex segregation in engineering as well as a careful analysis of how individual and institutional factors inhibit or encourage sex segregation. This study contributes to the research literature through the use of novel data, testing of occupational segregation theories, and the use of multiple levels of analysis. The analyses provide new insight into an enduring phenomenon, and suggest new avenues for understanding sex segregation in higher education.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.
2016-04-01
Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.
Soil Bioengineering Application and Practices in Nepal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dhital, Yam Prasad; Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta; Shi, Jiancheng
2013-02-01
The small mountainous country Nepal is situated in the central part of the Himalayas. Its climate varies from tropical in the south to arctic in the north; and natural vegetation follows the pattern of climate and altitude. Water-induced disaster problems including soil erosion, debris flow, landslides and flooding are common due to the unstable landscape. Soil erosion is the most important driving force for the degradation of upland and mountain ecosystems. Soil bioengineering has been used in Nepal for nearly 30 years to deal with erosion problems on slopes, in high way construction and riverbank stabilization. The main soil bioengineering techniques used in Nepal are brush layering, palisades, live check dams, fascines and vegetative stone pitching. This study is based on the geology, climate and vegetation of Nepal and briefly summarizes the application of soil bioengineering on slopes and stream banks, with especial attention to the role of vegetation on slope and stream bank stabilization. Furthermore, this paper addresses the role of community participation and responsibility for successful application of vegetation-based techniques in management, maintenance and utility aspects for the future. In recent years, soil bioengineering techniques are extensively used due to their cost-effectiveness, using locally available materials and low-cost labour in comparison to more elaborate civil engineering works. However, scientific implementation and record-keeping and evaluation of the work are indeed essential.
Work environment and safety climate in the Swedish merchant fleet.
Forsell, Karl; Eriksson, Helena; Järvholm, Bengt; Lundh, Monica; Andersson, Eva; Nilsson, Ralph
2017-02-01
To get knowledge of the work environment for seafarers sailing under the Swedish flag, in terms of safety climate, ergonomical, chemical and psychosocial exposures, and the seafarers self-rated health and work ability. A Web-based questionnaire was sent to all seafarers with a personal e-mail address in the Swedish Maritime Registry (N = 5608). Comparisons were made mainly within the study population, using Student's t test, prevalence odds ratios and logistic regressions with 95% confidence intervals. The response rate was 35% (N = 1972; 10% women, 90% men), with 61% of the respondents working on deck, 31% in the engine room and 7% in the catering/service department (1% not classifiable). Strain on neck, arm or back and heavy lifting were associated with female gender (p = 0.0001) and younger age (below or above 30 years of age, p < 0.0001). Exposures to exhausts, oils and dust were commonly reported. Major work problems were noise, risk of an accident and vibrations from the hull of the ship. The safety climate was high in comparison with that in land-based occupations. One-fourth had experienced personal harassment or bullying during last year of service. Noise, risk of accidents, hand/arm and whole-body vibrations and psychosocial factors such as harassment were commonly reported work environment problems among seafarers within the Swedish merchant fleet.
Soil bioengineering application and practices in Nepal.
Dhital, Yam Prasad; Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta; Shi, Jiancheng
2013-02-01
The small mountainous country Nepal is situated in the central part of the Himalayas. Its climate varies from tropical in the south to arctic in the north; and natural vegetation follows the pattern of climate and altitude. Water-induced disaster problems including soil erosion, debris flow, landslides and flooding are common due to the unstable landscape. Soil erosion is the most important driving force for the degradation of upland and mountain ecosystems. Soil bioengineering has been used in Nepal for nearly 30 years to deal with erosion problems on slopes, in high way construction and riverbank stabilization. The main soil bioengineering techniques used in Nepal are brush layering, palisades, live check dams, fascines and vegetative stone pitching. This study is based on the geology, climate and vegetation of Nepal and briefly summarizes the application of soil bioengineering on slopes and stream banks, with especial attention to the role of vegetation on slope and stream bank stabilization. Furthermore, this paper addresses the role of community participation and responsibility for successful application of vegetation-based techniques in management, maintenance and utility aspects for the future. In recent years, soil bioengineering techniques are extensively used due to their cost-effectiveness, using locally available materials and low-cost labour in comparison to more elaborate civil engineering works. However, scientific implementation and record-keeping and evaluation of the work are indeed essential.
Harte, John; Saleska, Scott R; Levy, Charlotte
2015-06-01
Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow-moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long-term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long-term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate-growth relationships of Abies spectabilis in a central Himalayan treeline ecotone
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schwab, Niels; Kaczka, Ryszard J.; Schickhoff, Udo
2017-04-01
Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The large spectrum of responses is not fully understood. In the framework of investigating the sensitivity and response of a near-natural treeline ecotone in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal, to climate warming we present results from dendroclimatological analyses of Abies spectabilis (Himalayan Fir) increment cores. Tree ring width was measured and cross-dated. After standardization, the chronology was correlated with temperature and precipitation variables. Preliminary results point to positive correlations with autumn temperature and precipitation. We will present improved climate-growth relationships. The resulting climate - tree growth relationships may be used as an indication of future growth patterns and treeline dynamics under climate change conditions.
Yang, Jian; Weisberg, Peter J.; Shinneman, Douglas; Dilts, Thomas E.; Earnst, Susan L.; Scheller, Robert M
2015-01-01
Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.
Demographic Responses To Climate Manipulations Across a Species Range
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oldfather, M. F.
2016-12-01
Species biogeographic responses to climate change will occur through the local extinction and establishment of populations. The overall performance of populations across a species range is shaped by the idiosyncratic sensitivities of demographic rates to the changing climate conditions. Heterogeneous topography partially decouples temperature and soil moisture presenting an opportunity to disentangle demographic sensitivity to multiple local climate variables and refine range shift predictions in response to complex climate change. Since 2013, I have monitored 16 populations of a long-lived alpine plant, Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis (Rosaceae) across the entirety of its altitudinal range in the arid White Mountains, CA (3350 - 4420m). I quantified microclimatic soil moisture and temperature, and the demographic rates of over 4,000 individuals. Demographic rates exhibited sensitivity to accumulated degree-days (ex. reproduction), soil volumetric water content (ex. germination), or the interaction between these climate variables (ex. survival). These observations motivated an experimental test of the relationship between demography and local climate with manipulations of increased summertime temperature and precipitation in nine populations. All demographic rates were sensitive to the climate manipulations and the magnitude of the demographic response depended on the population's location within the range. However, the modeled population growth rate was only minimally affected by the manipulations in most populations. The inverse responses of many of the demographic rates may allow populations to demographically buffer against the climate manipulations. However, in one low elevation edge population the negative effect of heating on survival overwhelmed the positive effect on germination, indicating that the capacity of populations to demographically buffer may have a limit.
Hack the Planet: What we Talk About When we Talk About Geoengineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kintisch, E.
2010-12-01
Hack the Planet (Wiley, 2010) explores how an idea once basically anathema to meetings like AGU has, in the space of a few years, become part of the geoscience mainstream. Through chapters involving researchers like David Battisti, Stephen Salter, Edward Teller and Brent Constanz the book documents the roots of this shift and how scientists are breaking new ground in the controversial field. And it shows how trying to engineer the planet's climate or manage its carbon poses novel scientific, geopolitical and moral risks and rewards. This session will cover how the topic of climate engineering has moved from something geoscientists don't talk about to something geoscientists can talk about, to something, in my view, that geoscientists must talk about.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gálos, Borbála
2017-04-01
Climate change is observed to have severe impacts on forest ecosystems. Ongoing research projects are dealing with the complex analysis of the causes of the health status decline and mortality of the vulnerable tree species. In the Carpathian Basin, recurrent long lasting drought periods and heatwaves of the last decades initiated the sequence of abiotic and biotic impacts in the beech and oak forests. Threatening extreme events are very likely to occur more frequent under changing climate conditions until the end of the 21st century. Therefore adaptation strategies and renewed regulations of the tree species selection are necessary. Learning material of forest education needs to be continuously updated with the new aspects and results of recent research and forest management planning. Therefore ideas and tools have been developed for teaching climate change impacts for students in forest- and environmental engineering. Using examples from world sport championships (e.g. losers and winners of climate change) these tools are applied to communicate the basic research questions in an easily understandable way as well as to motivate students and raise their awareness for the complex processes of forest - climate interactions. By the application of the developed examples for motivation, the key competences and learning outcomes can be the following: • students get an insight into the observed and projected tendencies of climate extremes; • they get an impression on the complexity of the climate change related damage chains; • they will be able to identify the climatic drivers of forest decline and mortality; • with the skill of critical thinking they will be able to evaluate the ecological role of forests that are already affected and that could be affected by the consequences of changing climate conditions; • they recognize the importance and urgency of the appropriate decisions in forestry and nature conservation. Keywords: climate change impacts, forest education, teaching tools for motivation The research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-4-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities.
Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.
Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C
2013-01-01
Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.
Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P.M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.; Kirkevag, A.;
2016-01-01
Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.
Climatic variability leads to later seasonal flowering of Floridian plants.
Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David
2010-07-21
Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses.
Response of the tropical Pacific to abrupt climate change 8,200 years ago
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D.; Bitz, C. M.; Sachs, J. P.
2017-12-01
The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe. However, little is known about the response of the tropical Pacific to this event. We present the first evidence for large perturbations to the eastern tropical Pacific climate, based on sedimentary biomarker and hydrogen isotopic records from a freshwater lake in the Galápagos Islands. We inform these reconstructions with freshwater forcing simulations performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Together, the biomarker records and model simulations provide evidence for a mechanistic link between (1) a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific and (2) decreased frequency and/or intensity of Eastern Pacific El Niño events during the 8,200 BP event. While climate theory and modeling studies support a southward shift of the ITCZ in response to a weakened AMOC, the dynamical drivers for the observed change in ENSO variability are less well developed. To explore these linkages, we perform simulations with an intermediate complexity model of the tropical Pacific. These results provide valuable insight into the controls of tropical Pacific climate variability and the mechanisms behind the global response to abrupt climate change.
Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.
Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N
2010-01-01
Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.
Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy
2018-01-01
Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...
Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.
2013-01-01
We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect interannual changes in total recharge. These results provide insights into the possible impacts of climate change to other regional aquifer systems, and the streams they support, where discharge points represent a range of flow system scales.
A reversal of fortunes: climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Antarctic Peninsula penguins
Clucas, Gemma V.; Dunn, Michael J.; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D.; Levy, Hila; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Rogers, Alex D.; Hart, Tom
2014-01-01
Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces ‘winners’, species that benefit from these events and ‘losers’, species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a ‘reversal of fortunes’ as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change ‘winners’, while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change ‘losers’. PMID:24865774
A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins.
Clucas, Gemma V; Dunn, Michael J; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J; Pybus, Oliver G; Rogers, Alex D; Hart, Tom
2014-06-12
Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces 'winners', species that benefit from these events and 'losers', species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a 'reversal of fortunes' as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change 'winners', while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change 'losers'.
Overview of global climate change and carbon sequestration
Kurt Johnsen
2004-01-01
The potential influence of global climate change on southern forests is uncertain. Outputs of climate change models differ considerably in their projections for precipitation and other variables that affect forests. Forest responses, particularly effects on competition among species, are difficult to assess. Even the responses of relatively simple ecosystems, such as...
N cycling in SPRUCE (Spruce Peatlands Response Under Climatic and Environmental Changes)
Peatlands located in boreal regions make up a third of global wetland area and are expected to have the highest temperature increases in response to climate change. As climate warms, we expect peat decomposition may accelerate, altering the cycling of nitrogen. Alterations in th...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.
2018-06-01
High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.
2017-09-01
High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.
Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.
2017-12-01
Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas
2016-01-01
We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.
Leakey, Andrew D. B.; Lau, Jennifer A.
2012-01-01
Variation in atmospheric [CO2] is a prominent feature of the environmental history over which vascular plants have evolved. Periods of falling and low [CO2] in the palaeo-record appear to have created selective pressure for important adaptations in modern plants. Today, rising [CO2] is a key component of anthropogenic global environmental change that will impact plants and the ecosystem goods and services they deliver. Currently, there is limited evidence that natural plant populations have evolved in response to contemporary increases in [CO2] in ways that increase plant productivity or fitness, and no evidence for incidental breeding of crop varieties to achieve greater yield enhancement from rising [CO2]. Evolutionary responses to elevated [CO2] have been studied by applying selection in controlled environments, quantitative genetics and trait-based approaches. Findings to date suggest that adaptive changes in plant traits in response to future [CO2] will not be consistently observed across species or environments and will not be large in magnitude compared with physiological and ecological responses to future [CO2]. This lack of evidence for strong evolutionary effects of elevated [CO2] is surprising, given the large effects of elevated [CO2] on plant phenotypes. New studies under more stressful, complex environmental conditions associated with climate change may revise this view. Efforts are underway to engineer plants to: (i) overcome the limitations to photosynthesis from today's [CO2] and (ii) benefit maximally from future, greater [CO2]. Targets range in scale from manipulating the function of a single enzyme (e.g. Rubisco) to adding metabolic pathways from bacteria as well as engineering the structural and functional components necessary for C4 photosynthesis into C3 leaves. Successfully improving plant performance will depend on combining the knowledge of the evolutionary context, cellular basis and physiological integration of plant responses to varying [CO2]. PMID:22232771
Leakey, Andrew D B; Lau, Jennifer A
2012-02-19
Variation in atmospheric [CO(2)] is a prominent feature of the environmental history over which vascular plants have evolved. Periods of falling and low [CO(2)] in the palaeo-record appear to have created selective pressure for important adaptations in modern plants. Today, rising [CO(2)] is a key component of anthropogenic global environmental change that will impact plants and the ecosystem goods and services they deliver. Currently, there is limited evidence that natural plant populations have evolved in response to contemporary increases in [CO(2)] in ways that increase plant productivity or fitness, and no evidence for incidental breeding of crop varieties to achieve greater yield enhancement from rising [CO(2)]. Evolutionary responses to elevated [CO(2)] have been studied by applying selection in controlled environments, quantitative genetics and trait-based approaches. Findings to date suggest that adaptive changes in plant traits in response to future [CO(2)] will not be consistently observed across species or environments and will not be large in magnitude compared with physiological and ecological responses to future [CO(2)]. This lack of evidence for strong evolutionary effects of elevated [CO(2)] is surprising, given the large effects of elevated [CO(2)] on plant phenotypes. New studies under more stressful, complex environmental conditions associated with climate change may revise this view. Efforts are underway to engineer plants to: (i) overcome the limitations to photosynthesis from today's [CO(2)] and (ii) benefit maximally from future, greater [CO(2)]. Targets range in scale from manipulating the function of a single enzyme (e.g. Rubisco) to adding metabolic pathways from bacteria as well as engineering the structural and functional components necessary for C(4) photosynthesis into C(3) leaves. Successfully improving plant performance will depend on combining the knowledge of the evolutionary context, cellular basis and physiological integration of plant responses to varying [CO(2)].
Research | Argonne National Laboratory
, and Decision Analytics Energy Systems Analysis Engines and Fuels Friction, Wear, and Lubrication Vehicle Technologies Buildings and Climate-Environment Energy, Power, and Decision Analytics Energy
Atmospheric Science Data Center
2018-05-05
... Raw and calibrated radiometer science and engineering data. Project Title: DSCOVR Discipline: ... Level: L1 Platform: DEEP SPACE CLIMATE OBSERVATORY Instrument: PHOTODIODE RADIOMETER ...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.
2014-12-01
The Sierra Nevada Mountains are occupied by a diversity of forest types that sort by elevation. The interaction of changing climate and altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire) has the potential to drive changes in forest distribution as a function of species-specific response. Quantifying the effects of these drivers on species distributions and productivity under future climate-fire interactions is necessary for informing mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we assimilated forest inventory and soil survey data and species life history traits into a landscape model, LANDIS-II, to quantify the response of forest dynamics to the interaction of climate change and large wildfire frequency in the Sierra Nevada. We ran 100-year simulations forced with historical climate and climate projections from three models (GFDL, CNRM and CCSM3) driven by the A2 emission scenario. We found that non-growing season NPP is greatly enhanced by 15%-150%, depending on the specific climate projection. The greatest increase occurs in subalpine forests. Species-specific response varied as a function of life history characteristics. The distribution of drought and fire-tolerant species, such as ponderosa pine, expanded by 7.3-9.6% from initial conditions, while drought and fire-intolerant species, such as white fir, showed little change in the absence of fire. Changes in wildfire size and frequency influence species distributions by altering the successional stage of burned patches. The range of responses to different climate models demonstrates the sensitivity of these forests to climate variability. The scale of climate projections relative to the scale of forest simulations presents a source of uncertainty, particularly at the ecotone between forest types and for identifying topographically mediated climate refugia. Improving simulations will likely require higher resolution climate projections.
Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Munson, S. M.; Bunting, E.
2017-12-01
Ecosystem transitions and thresholds are conceptually well-defined and have become a framework to address vegetation response to climate change and land-use intensification, yet there are few approaches to define the environmental conditions which can lead to them. We demonstrate a novel climate pivot point approach using long-term monitoring data from a broad network of permanent plots, satellite imagery, and experimental treatments across the southwestern U.S. The climate pivot point identifies conditions that lead to decreased plant performance and serves as an early warning sign of increased vulnerability of crossing a threshold into an altered ecosystem state. Plant responses and climate pivot points aligned with the lifespan and structural characteristics of species, were modified by soil and landscape attributes of a site, and had non-linear dynamics in some cases. Species with strong increases in abundance when water was available were most susceptible to losses during water shortages, reinforcing plant energetic and physiological tradeoffs. Future research to uncover the heterogeneity of plant responses and climate pivot points at multiple scales can lead to greater understanding of shifts in ecosystem productivity and vulnerability to climate change.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Climate Resiliency Planning Process and Lessons Learned
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Fowler, Kimberly M.; Judd, Kathleen S.; Brandenberger, Jill M.
2016-02-22
In 2015, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed its first Climate Resilience Plan for its Richland Campus. PNNL has performed Climate Resilience Planning for the Department of Defense, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Department of Energy (DOE) over the past 5 years. The assessment team included climate scientists, social scientists, engineers, and operations managers. A multi-disciplinary team was needed to understand the potential exposures to future changes at the site, the state of the science on future impacts, and the best process for “mainstreaming” new actions into existing activities. The team uncovered that the site’s greatest vulnerabilities, and therefore prioritiesmore » for climate resilience planning, are high temperature due to degraded infrastructure, increased wildfire frequency, and intense precipitation impacts on stormwater conveyance systems.« less
Modeling non-linear growth responses to temperature and hydrology in wetland trees
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.
2016-12-01
Growth responses of wetland trees to flooding and climate variations are difficult to model because they depend on multiple, apparently interacting factors, but are a critical link in hydrological control of wetland carbon budgets. To more generally understand tree growth to hydrological forcing, we modeled non-linear responses of tree ring growth to flooding and climate at sub-annual time steps, using Vaganov-Shashkin response functions. We calibrated the model to six baldcypress tree-ring chronologies from two hydrologically distinct sites in southern Louisiana, and tested several hypotheses of plasticity in wetlands tree responses to interacting environmental variables. The model outperformed traditional multiple linear regression. More importantly, optimized response parameters were generally similar among sites with varying hydrological conditions, suggesting generality to the functions. Model forms that included interacting responses to multiple forcing factors were more effective than were single response functions, indicating the principle of a single limiting factor is not correct in wetlands and both climatic and hydrological variables must be considered in predicting responses to hydrological or climate change.
Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere
Schloss, Carrie A.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Lawler, Joshua J.
2012-01-01
As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated. PMID:22586104
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mayer, A.; Vivoni, E.; Halvorsen, K.; Robles-Morua, A.; Dana, K.; Che, D.; Mirchi, A.; Kossak, D.; Casteneda, M.
2013-05-01
In this project, we are studying decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the proposed project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of three workshops, designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of actors, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. Participants will guide the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change and infrastructure management scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. Through the theory of planned behavior, the participatory modeling process will be evaluated to understand if, and to what extent, the engineering tools are useful in the uncertain and politically-complex setting. Pre- and post-workshop surveys will be used in this evaluation. For this contribution, we present the results of the first collaborative modeling workshop that will be held in March 2013, where we will develop the initial modeling framework in collaboration with workshop participants.
Favorable climate change response explains non-native species' success in Thoreau's woods.
Willis, Charles G; Ruhfel, Brad R; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Losos, Jonathan B; Davis, Charles C
2010-01-26
Invasive species have tremendous detrimental ecological and economic impacts. Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species. Recent evidence indicates that species that respond to climate change by adjusting their phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) have historically increased in abundance. The extent to which non-native species success is similarly linked to a favorable climate change response, however, remains untested. We analyzed a dataset initiated by the conservationist Henry David Thoreau that documents the long-term phenological response of native and non-native plant species over the last 150 years from Concord, Massachusetts (USA). Our results demonstrate that non-native species, and invasive species in particular, have been far better able to respond to recent climate change by adjusting their flowering time. This demonstrates that climate change has likely played, and may continue to play, an important role in facilitating non-native species naturalization and invasion at the community level.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goren, Liran; Petit, Carole
2017-04-01
Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rate of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and it changes the fluvial response time that controls the rate at which tectonically and climatically induced slope breaks are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the fluvial response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hinders our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. An analytic solution of the stream power model during general tectonic and climatic histories gives rise to a new definition of the fluvial response time. The analytic solution offers accurate predictions for landscape evolution that are hard to achieve with classical numerical schemes and thus can be used to validate and evaluate the accuracy of numerical landscape evolution models. The analytic solution together with the new definition of the fluvial response time allow inferring either the tectonic history or the climatic history from river long profiles by using simple linear inversion schemes. Analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency (10-100 kyr) climatic oscillations with respect to the response time, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints in the upstream reaches of fluvial channels. Linear inversion schemes are applied to the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps, where tributary long profiles are used to recover the incision rate history of the Tinee main trunk. Inversion results show periodic, high incision rate pulses, which are correlated with interglacial episodes. Similar incision rate histories are recovered for the past 100 kyr when assuming constant climatic conditions or periodic climatic oscillations, in agreement with theoretical predictions.
Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K; Murphy, Lora
2018-01-01
Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora
2018-01-01
Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.
Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.; Samset, B. H.
2015-02-01
Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.
Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F
2018-04-01
Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species' abundance and distribution. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa
2015-01-01
Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.
Lakes as sentinels of climate change
Adrian, Rita; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Zagarese, Horacio; Baines, Stephen B.; Hessen, Dag O.; Keller, Wendel; Livingstone, David M.; Sommaruga, Ruben; Straile, Dietmar; Van Donk, Ellen; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Winder, Monika
2010-01-01
While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment. PMID:20396409
Historical Sediment Sources and Delivery on the Lower Mississippi River
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dahl, T. A.; Biedenharn, D. S.; Little, C. D.
2015-12-01
The development of the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) and its floodplain for navigation and flood control has been ongoing since the 18th century, with the most concerted efforts occurring as a result of the Flood Control Act (FCA) of 1928 following the Great Flood of 1927. The Mississippi River and Tributaries (MR&T) Project that was spawned from the FCA of 1928 has produced a massive, comprehensive system for flood control and channel stabilization that includes levees, channel improvements, and floodways, as well as tributary reservoirs and other basin improvements. Additionally, the development of the river for safe and dependable navigation has generated a substantial engineering effort involving river training structures, meander cutoffs, and dredging. The historical, and present-day morphology of the LMR reflects an integration of all these engineering interventions (and the process-responses they have triggered in the fluvial system), combined with natural drivers of channel change and evolution, including floods and droughts, hurricanes, neotectonic activity, geologic outcrops, climate change, and relative sea-level rise. In response to the complex requirements in navigation, flood risk reduction, and environmental restoration, all with multiple stakeholders, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers created the Mississippi River Geomorphology & Potamology (MRG&P) Program. The goals of the MRG&P are to advance the knowledge of the geomorphology of the LMR and to transfer this technology to improve and sustain long-term management of the system. The results presented herein come from several MRG&P studies. The historical river morphology, and particularly the sources and delivery of sediments have changed dramatically over the past two centuries. In this presentation, the changes in sediment sources, and the manner in which this sediment is delivered through the channel system from the early 1800s to present-day is described.
12. View north of Tropic Chamber. Natick Research & ...
12. View north of Tropic Chamber. - Natick Research & Development Laboratories, Climatic Chambers Building, U.S. Army Natick Research, Development & Engineering Center (NRDEC), Natick, Middlesex County, MA
13. View south of Arctic Chamber. Natick Research & ...
13. View south of Arctic Chamber. - Natick Research & Development Laboratories, Climatic Chambers Building, U.S. Army Natick Research, Development & Engineering Center (NRDEC), Natick, Middlesex County, MA