Sample records for climate envelope models
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Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2014-01-01
Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.
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Validating predictions from climate envelope models
Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2013-01-01
Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.
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Use and interpretation of climate envelope models: a practical guide
Watling, James I.; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.
2013-01-01
This guidebook is intended to provide a practical overview of climate envelope modeling for conservation professionals and natural resource managers. The material is intended for people with little background or experience in climate envelope modeling who want to better understand and interpret models developed by others and the results generated by such models, or want to do some modeling themselves. This is not an exhaustive review of climate envelope modeling, but rather a brief introduction to some key concepts in the discipline. Readers interested in a more in-depth treatment of much of the material presented here are referred to an excellent book, Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction by Janet Franklin. Also, a recent review (Araújo & Peterson 2012) provides an excellent, though more technical, discussion of many of the issues dealt with here. Here we treat selected topics from a practical perspective, using minimal jargon to explain and illustrate some of the many issues that one has to be aware of when using climate envelope models. When we do introduce specialized terminology in the guidebook, we bold the term when it is first used; a glossary of these terms is included at the back of the guidebook.
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Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A
2017-01-01
Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have narrow geographic distributions, and are thus prone to future shifts away from the climatic conditions in these parks in current climates. In other cases, some parks are broadly similar to large geographic regions surrounding the park or have climatic envelopes that may persist into near-term climate change. Larger parks predict larger climatic envelopes, in current conditions, but on average the predicted area of climate envelopes are smaller in our single future conditions scenario. Individual units in a protected area network may vary in the potential for climate adaptation, and adaptive management strategies for the network should account for the landscape contexts of the geodiversity or climate diversity within individual units. Conservation strategies, including maintaining connectivity, assessing the feasibility of assisted migration and other landscape restoration or enhancements can be optimized using analysis methods to assess the spatial properties of protected area networks in biogeographic and macroecological contexts.
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Garcia, Raquel A; Burgess, Neil D; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B
2012-01-01
Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.
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Most predictions of the effect of climate change on species’ ranges are based on correlations between climate and current species’ distributions. These so-called envelope models may be a good first approximation, but we need demographically mechanistic models to incorporate the ...
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Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?
Watling, James I.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Bucklin, David N.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2012-01-01
Climate envelope models are widely used to forecast potential effects of climate change on species distributions. A key issue in climate envelope modeling is the selection of predictor variables that most directly influence species. To determine whether model performance and spatial predictions were related to the selection of predictor variables, we compared models using bioclimate variables with models constructed from monthly climate data for twelve terrestrial vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using two different algorithms (random forests or generalized linear models), and two model selection techniques (using uncorrelated predictors or a subset of user-defined biologically relevant predictor variables). There were no differences in performance between models created with bioclimate or monthly variables, but one metric of model performance was significantly greater using the random forest algorithm compared with generalized linear models. Spatial predictions between maps using bioclimate and monthly variables were very consistent using the random forest algorithm with uncorrelated predictors, whereas we observed greater variability in predictions using generalized linear models.
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Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate
Munguía, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.; Araújo, Miguel B.
2012-01-01
A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions. PMID:22511938
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Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Morse, L.E.; Kutner, L.S.; Maddox, G.D.
1993-11-01
To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areasmore » outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.« less
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Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate. PMID:26288363
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shi, Luyang; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Huibo
2017-11-01
The object of this article is to investigate the influence of thermal performance of envelopes in shallow-buried buildings on energy consumption for different climate zones of China. For the purpose of this study, an effective building energy simulation tool (DeST) developed by Tsinghua University was chosen to model the heat transfer in underground buildings. Based on the simulative results, energy consumption for heating and cooling for the whole year was obtained. The results showed that the relationship between energy consumption and U-value of envelopes for underground buildings is different compared with above-ground buildings: improving thermal performance of exterior walls cannot reduce energy consumption, on the contrary, may result in more energy cost. Besides, it is can be derived that optimized U-values of underground building envelopes vary with climate zones of China in this study. For severe cold climate zone, the optimized U-value of underground building envelopes is 0.8W/(m2·K); for cold climate zone, the optimized U-value is 1.5W/(m2·K); for warm climate zone, the U-value is 2.0W/(m2·K).
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Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Tait, A B; Pomroy, W E
2017-08-30
Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Fernandes, Jose A; Cheung, William W L; Jennings, Simon; Butenschön, Momme; de Mora, Lee; Frölicher, Thomas L; Barange, Manuel; Grant, Alastair
2013-08-01
Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kennedy, Thomas L.; Gutzler, David S.; Leung, Lai R.
2008-11-20
Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gasmore » increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.« less
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Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.
2013-01-01
High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.
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Notaro, Michael; Mauss, Adrien; Williams, John W
2012-06-01
This study focuses on potential impacts of 21st century climate change on vegetation in the Southwest United States, based on debiased and interpolated climate projections from 17 global climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these models a warming trend is universal, but projected changes in precipitation vary in sign and magnitude. Two independent methods are applied: a dynamic global vegetation model to assess changes in plant functional types and bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess changes in individual tree and shrub species and biodiversity. The former approach investigates broad responses of plant functional types to climate change, while considering competition, disturbances, and carbon fertilization, while the latter approach focuses on the response of individual plant species, and net biodiversity, to climate change. The dynamic model simulates a region-wide reduction in vegetation cover during the 21st century, with a partial replacement of evergreen trees with grasses in the mountains of Colorado and Utah, except at the highest elevations, where tree cover increases. Across southern Arizona, central New Mexico, and eastern Colorado, grass cover declines, in some cases abruptly. Due to the prevalent warming trend among all 17 climate models, vegetation cover declines in the 21st century, with the greatest vegetation losses associated with models that project a drying trend. The inclusion of the carbon fertilization effect largely ameliorates the projected vegetation loss. Based on bioclimatic envelope modeling for the 21st century, the number of tree and shrub species that are expected to experience robust declines in range likely outweighs the number of species that are expected to expand in range. Dramatic shifts in plant species richness are projected, with declines in the high-elevation evergreen forests, increases in the eastern New Mexico prairies, and a northward shift of the Sonoran Desert biodiversity maximum.
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Appelqvist, Christin; Al-Hamdani, Zyad K.; Jonsson, Per R.; Havenhand, Jon N.
2015-01-01
The shipworm, Teredo navalis, is absent from most of the Baltic Sea. In the last 20 years, increased frequency of T. navalis has been reported along the southern Baltic Sea coasts of Denmark, Germany, and Sweden, indicating possible range-extensions into previously unoccupied areas. We evaluated the effects of historical and projected near-future changes in salinity, temperature, and oxygen on the risk of spread of T. navalis in the Baltic. Specifically, we developed a simple, GIS-based, mechanistic climate envelope model to predict the spatial distribution of favourable conditions for adult reproduction and larval metamorphosis of T. navalis, based on published environmental tolerances to these factors. In addition, we used a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrographic model to simulate the probability of spread of T. navalis larvae within the study area. Climate envelope modeling showed that projected near-future climate change is not likely to change the overall distribution of T. navalis in the region, but will prolong the breeding season and increase the risk of shipworm establishment at the margins of the current range. Dispersal simulations indicated that the majority of larvae were philopatric, but those that spread over a wider area typically spread to areas unfavourable for their survival. Overall, therefore, we found no substantive evidence for climate-change related shifts in the distribution of T. navalis in the Baltic Sea, and no evidence for increased risk of spread in the near-future. PMID:25768305
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...
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Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A
2015-04-21
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.
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Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.
2015-01-01
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351
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Anton TenWolde; Mark T. Bomberg
2009-01-01
Overall, despite the lack of exact input data, the use of design tools, including models, is much superior to the simple following of rules of thumbs, and a moisture analysis should be standard procedure for any building envelope design. Exceptions can only be made for buildings in the same climate, similar occupancy, and similar envelope construction. This chapter...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wason, J. W., III; Dovciak, M.; Bevilacqua, E.
2015-12-01
Climate change in the northeastern United States is expected to shift climatic (temperature) envelopes for spruce-fir forests upslope and northward decreasing their area in the region by 2100. Coarse scale landscape models however, may not incorporate heterogeneity in climatic conditions in mountains that can create climatic refugia for species in high-elevation spruce-fir forests. To determine spatial and temporal trends in climate of mountain spruce-fir forests we measured microclimate at 98 forest plots in 2012 and 2013 on 12 mountains in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. By linking regional climate trends with our spatial climate data we calculated elevational shifts in temperature envelopes during the last 50 years. Additionally we linked our spatial dataset to a range of future climate conditions for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (1 to 5°C warming). We hypothesized that climates have already changed to an extent that spruce-fir forests should begin to respond and that future climate conditions may shift suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests beyond their current range. We found that regional climate change over the last 50 years has resulted in warming of 0.66 and 1.62°C for average annual daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the region. When linked to our spatial microclimate model, this warming results in a 100 (Tmax) and 312m (Tmin) upslope shift in temperature envelopes. Future climate projections suggest that by 2100 Tmax may shift upslope between 152 and 758m for the 1 and 5°C scenarios respectively, while Tmin may shift upslope between 192 and 962m. Spruce-fir forests typically occupy an elevation range of ~500m suggesting that the climate experienced in these forests 50 years ago may not be found within their elevation range by 2100. These results are discussed in the context of responses of tree populations and growth rates observed along the elevation gradients of northeastern United States.
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Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models
Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A.; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.
2016-01-01
Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism’s past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings. PMID:27027874
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Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models.
Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J A
2016-01-01
Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism's past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings.
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Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.
WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H
2011-10-01
Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.
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Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2017-01-01
Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (<40%) between the two methods Despite these differences in variable sets (expert versus statistical), models had high performance metrics (>0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable selection is a useful first step, especially when there is a need to model a large number of species or expert knowledge of the species is limited. Expert input can then be used to refine models that seem unrealistic or for species that experts believe are particularly sensitive to change. It also emphasizes the importance of using multiple models to reduce uncertainty and improve map outputs for conservation planning. Where outputs overlap or show the same direction of change there is greater certainty in the predictions. Areas of disagreement can be used for learning by asking why the models do not agree, and may highlight areas where additional on-the-ground data collection could improve the models.
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ARM-Led Improvements Aerosols in Climate and Climate Models
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ghan, Steven J.; Penner, Joyce E.
2016-07-25
The DOE ARM program has played a foundational role in efforts to quantify aerosol effects on climate, beginning with the early back-of-the-envelope estimates of direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate and biomass burning aerosol (Penner et al., 1994). In this chapter we review the role that ARM has played in subsequent detailed estimates based on physically-based representations of aerosols in climate models. The focus is on quantifying the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosol on the planetary energy balance. Only recently have other DOE programs applied the aerosol modeling capability to simulate the climate response to the radiative forcing.
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Baglivo, Cristina; Congedo, Paolo Maria
2018-04-01
Several technical combinations have been evaluated in order to design high energy performance buildings for the warm climate. The analysis has been developed in several steps, avoiding the use of HVAC systems. The methodological approach of this study is based on a sequential search technique and it is shown on the paper entitled "Envelope Design Optimization by Thermal Modeling of a Building in a Warm Climate" [1]. The Operative Air Temperature trends (TOP), for each combination, have been plotted through a dynamic simulation performed using the software TRNSYS 17 (a transient system simulation program, University of Wisconsin, Solar Energy Laboratory, USA, 2010). Starting from the simplest building configuration consisting of 9 rooms (equal-sized modules of 5 × 5 m 2 ), the different building components are sequentially evaluated until the envelope design is optimized. The aim of this study is to perform a step-by-step simulation, simplifying as much as possible the model without making additional variables that can modify their performances. Walls, slab-on-ground floor, roof, shading and windows are among the simulated building components. The results are shown for each combination and evaluated for Brindisi, a city in southern Italy having 1083 degrees day, belonging to the national climatic zone C. The data show the trends of the TOP for each measure applied in the case study for a total of 17 combinations divided into eight steps.
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Probabilistic modeling of the indoor climates of residential buildings using EnergyPlus
Buechler, Elizabeth D.; Pallin, Simon B.; Boudreaux, Philip R.; ...
2017-04-25
The indoor air temperature and relative humidity in residential buildings significantly affect material moisture durability, HVAC system performance, and occupant comfort. Therefore, indoor climate data is generally required to define boundary conditions in numerical models that evaluate envelope durability and equipment performance. However, indoor climate data obtained from field studies is influenced by weather, occupant behavior and internal loads, and is generally unrepresentative of the residential building stock. Likewise, whole-building simulation models typically neglect stochastic variables and yield deterministic results that are applicable to only a single home in a specific climate. The
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Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David
2011-01-01
Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr).
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Lawing, A. Michelle; Polly, P. David
2011-01-01
Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr). PMID:22164305
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Buechler, Elizabeth D.; Pallin, Simon B.; Boudreaux, Philip R.
The indoor air temperature and relative humidity in residential buildings significantly affect material moisture durability, HVAC system performance, and occupant comfort. Therefore, indoor climate data is generally required to define boundary conditions in numerical models that evaluate envelope durability and equipment performance. However, indoor climate data obtained from field studies is influenced by weather, occupant behavior and internal loads, and is generally unrepresentative of the residential building stock. Likewise, whole-building simulation models typically neglect stochastic variables and yield deterministic results that are applicable to only a single home in a specific climate. The
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A model for the sustainable selection of building envelope assemblies
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Huedo, Patricia, E-mail: huedo@uji.es; Mulet, Elena, E-mail: emulet@uji.es; López-Mesa, Belinda, E-mail: belinda@unizar.es
2016-02-15
The aim of this article is to define an evaluation model for the environmental impacts of building envelopes to support planners in the early phases of materials selection. The model is intended to estimate environmental impacts for different combinations of building envelope assemblies based on scientifically recognised sustainability indicators. These indicators will increase the amount of information that existing catalogues show to support planners in the selection of building assemblies. To define the model, first the environmental indicators were selected based on the specific aims of the intended sustainability assessment. Then, a simplified LCA methodology was developed to estimate themore » impacts applicable to three types of dwellings considering different envelope assemblies, building orientations and climate zones. This methodology takes into account the manufacturing, installation, maintenance and use phases of the building. Finally, the model was validated and a matrix in Excel was created as implementation of the model. - Highlights: • Method to assess the envelope impacts based on a simplified LCA • To be used at an earlier phase than the existing methods in a simple way. • It assigns a score by means of known sustainability indicators. • It estimates data about the embodied and operating environmental impacts. • It compares the investment costs with the costs of the consumed energy.« less
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Mandle, Lisa; Warren, Dan L.; Hoffmann, Matthias H.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Schmitt, Johanna; von Wettberg, Eric J.
2010-01-01
Determining the degree to which climate niches are conserved across plant species' native and introduced ranges is valuable to developing successful strategies to limit the introduction and spread of invasive plants, and also has important ecological and evolutionary implications. Here, we test whether climate niches differ between native and introduced populations of Impatiens walleriana, globally one of the most popular horticultural species. We use approaches based on both raw climate data associated with occurrence points and ecological niche models (ENMs) developed with Maxent. We include comparisons of climate niche breadth in both geographic and environmental spaces, taking into account differences in available habitats between the distributional areas. We find significant differences in climate envelopes between native and introduced populations when comparing raw climate variables, with introduced populations appearing to expand into wetter and cooler climates. However, analyses controlling for differences in available habitat in each region do not indicate expansion of climate niches. We therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that observed differences in climate envelopes reflect only the limited environments available within the species' native range in East Africa. Our results suggest that models built from only native range occurrence data will not provide an accurate prediction of the potential for invasiveness if applied to areas containing a greater range of environmental combinations, and that tests of niche expansion may overestimate shifts in climate niches if they do not control carefully for environmental differences between distributional areas. PMID:21206912
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Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W Ian; Reid, Neil
2015-01-01
Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.
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Andrew J. Shirk; Erin L. Landguth; Samuel A. Cushman
2017-01-01
Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate-induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time....
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Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W. Ian; Reid, Neil
2015-01-01
Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions. PMID:25874407
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Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann
2016-01-01
The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500–2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change. PMID:26855870
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Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann; Guo, Yumin
2016-01-01
The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500-2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change.
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Kriticos, Darren J.; Morin, Louise; Leriche, Agathe; Anderson, Robert C.; Caley, Peter
2013-01-01
Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets. PMID:23704988
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shi, Zhiyang; Zhang, Xiong
A dynamic computer simulation is carried out in the climates of 35 cities distributed around the world. The variation of the annual air-conditioning energy loads due to changes in the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance of the building envelopes is studied to find the most appropriate exterior building finishes in various climates (including a tropical climate, a subtropical climate, a mountain plateau climate, a frigid-temperate climate and a temperate climate). Both the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance are set from 0.1 to 0.9 with an interval of 0.1 in the simulation. The annual air-conditioning energy loads trends ofmore » each city are listed in a chart. The results show that both the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance of building envelopes play significant roles in energy-saving for buildings. In tropical climates, the optical parameters of the building exterior surface affect the building energy-saving most significantly. In the mountain plateau climates and the subarctic climates, the impacts on energy-saving in buildings due to changes in the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance are still considerable, but in the temperate continental climates and the temperate maritime climates, only limited effects are seen. (author)« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
KoÅáková, Dana; Kočí, Václav; Žumár, Jaromír; Keppert, Martin; Holčapek, Ondřej; Vejmelková, Eva; Černý, Robert
2016-12-01
The heat and moisture transport and storage parameters of three different natural stones used on the Czech territory since medieval times are determined experimentally, together with the basic physical properties and mechanical parameters. The measured data are applied as input parameters in the computational modeling of hygrothermal performance of building envelopes made of the analyzed stones. Test reference year climatic data of three different locations within the Czech Republic are used as boundary conditions on the exterior side. Using the simulated hygric and thermal performance of particular stone walls, their applicability is assessed in a relation to the geographical and climatic conditions. The obtained results indicate that all three investigated stones are highly resistant to weather conditions, freeze/thaw cycles in particular.
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Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean.
Kelly, Morgan W; Sanford, Eric; Grosberg, Richard K
2012-01-22
The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.
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Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.
2018-01-01
Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.
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Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David; Hews, Diana K; Martins, Emília P
2016-08-01
Fossils and other paleontological information can improve phylogenetic comparative method estimates of phenotypic evolution and generate hypotheses related to species diversification. Here, we use fossil information to calibrate ancestral reconstructions of suitable climate for Sceloporus lizards in North America. Integrating data from the fossil record, general circulation models of paleoclimate during the Miocene, climate envelope modeling, and phylogenetic comparative methods provides a geographically and temporally explicit species distribution model of Sceloporus-suitable habitat through time. We provide evidence to support the historic biogeographic hypothesis of Sceloporus diversification in warm North American deserts and suggest a relatively recent Sceloporus invasion into Mexico around 6 Ma. We use a physiological model to map extinction risk. We suggest that the number of hours of restriction to a thermal refuge limited Sceloporus from inhabiting Mexico until the climate cooled enough to provide suitable habitat at approximately 6 Ma. If the future climate returns to the hotter climates of the past, Mexico, the place of highest modern Sceloporus richness, will no longer provide suitable habitats for Sceloporus to survive and reproduce.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Case, M. J.; Kim, J. B.
2015-12-01
Assessing changes in vegetation is increasingly important for conservation planning in the face of climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are important tools for assessing such changes. DGVMs have been applied at regional scales to create projections of range expansions and contractions of plant functional types. Many DGVMs use a number of algorithms to determine the biogeography of plant functional types. One such DGVM, MC2, uses a series of decision trees based on bioclimatic thresholds while others, such as LPJ, use constraining emergent properties with a limited set of bioclimatic threshold-based rules. Although both approaches have been used widely, we demonstrate that these biogeography outputs perform poorly at continental scales when compared to existing potential vegetation maps. Specifically, we found that with MC2, the algorithm for determining leaf physiognomy is too simplistic to capture arid and semi-arid vegetation in much of the western U.S., as well as is the algorithm for determining the broadleaf and needleleaf mix in the Southeast. With LPJ, we found that the bioclimatic thresholds used to allow seedling establishment are too broad and fail to capture regional-scale biogeography of the plant functional types. In response, we demonstrate a new approach to determining the biogeography of plant functional types by integrating the climatic thresholds produced for individual tree species by a series of climate envelope models with the biogeography algorithms of MC2 and LPJ. Using this approach, we find that MC2 and LPJ perform considerably better when compared to potential vegetation maps.
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2003-01-01
epidemics, caused by Vibrio cholerae have been linked to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in...Climactic warming has directly affected the prevalence of RVFV by prolonging survival rates of the vector involved in disease transmission. 3 Cholera ...climate variability. The study of V. cholerae represents a model system of how climate change affects pathogens (2). Personal human behavior has
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matyas, C.; Rasztovits, E.
2009-04-01
The determination of "climatic envelopes" of biota and especially of forests has attained a sudden actuality in the context of expected climatic changes, as zonal vegetation types serve as convenient climate indicators. Studies on bioclimatic modelling and on climate change-triggered vegetation shifts are abundant and have been considered also in the fourth report of IPCC. Present and predicted distribution of forest biota provide an illustrative impression of shift of potential land cover changes. There are, however, certain assumptions which remain often unmentioned, and which - if left unconsidered - may compromise the outcome. The bioclimatic models of actual biome or species distributions may be biased, because: (1) Present "natural" vegetation cover types are in most part of the world under strong human influence. In Europe, even the few remaining close to natural landscapes are the results of long lasting human interference of the past which continue also in the present. (2) It is a well known ecological rule that actual ranges of species and biota are regulated by complex, often hidden interactions which may modify distributions. Physiologically (more accurately: genetically) set potential limits may be per definitionem wider than the realized, actual ones. To include extrazonal outliers in bioclimatic models may cause errors. (3) The longevity and persistence of forest trees may be deceptive for climatic modelling at the retreating, xeric limits. The climatic zones move usually faster than the land (forest) cover indicating those zones. (4) Climate envelopes use standard (mean) climate parameters. It is however the effect of the sequence of consecutive extreme weather events and linked biotic damages which will concretely decide over survival or mortality. Therefore the use of climate means should be regarded only as surrogates for weather extremes. (5) The change of climatic environment may alter the phenologic behaviour which cannot be tested in advance. This affects also consuming and pathogenic organisms. Forecasts are unreliable, especially because up to date negligible or unknown pests and diseases may become virulent. Environmental shifts may also lead to changing interactions between hosts and consumers. The described and other factors may lead to overestimate progress at the front, and to possibly too pessimistic forecasts at the retreating (xeric) end of distributions.
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Weather Correlations to Calculate Infiltration Rates for U. S. Commercial Building Energy Models.
Ng, Lisa C; Quiles, Nelson Ojeda; Dols, W Stuart; Emmerich, Steven J
2018-01-01
As building envelope performance improves, a greater percentage of building energy loss will occur through envelope leakage. Although the energy impacts of infiltration on building energy use can be significant, current energy simulation software have limited ability to accurately account for envelope infiltration and the impacts of improved airtightness. This paper extends previous work by the National Institute of Standards and Technology that developed a set of EnergyPlus inputs for modeling infiltration in several commercial reference buildings using Chicago weather. The current work includes cities in seven additional climate zones and uses the updated versions of the prototype commercial building types developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U. S. Department of Energy. Comparisons were made between the predicted infiltration rates using three representations of the commercial building types: PNNL EnergyPlus models, CONTAM models, and EnergyPlus models using the infiltration inputs developed in this paper. The newly developed infiltration inputs in EnergyPlus yielded average annual increases of 3 % and 8 % in the HVAC electrical and gas use, respectively, over the original infiltration inputs in the PNNL EnergyPlus models. When analyzing the benefits of building envelope airtightening, greater HVAC energy savings were predicted using the newly developed infiltration inputs in EnergyPlus compared with using the original infiltration inputs. These results indicate that the effects of infiltration on HVAC energy use can be significant and that infiltration can and should be better accounted for in whole-building energy models.
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Biodiversity of Terrestrial Vegetation during Past Warm Periods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Ridgwell, A.
2016-12-01
Previous modelling studies of vegetation have generally used a small number of plant functional types to understand how the terrestrial biosphere responds to climate changes. Whilst being useful for understanding first order climate feedbacks, this climate-envelope approach makes a lot of assumptions about past vegetation being very similar to modern. A trait-based method has the advantage for paleo modelling in that there are substantially less assumptions made. In a novel use of the trait-based dynamic vegetation model JeDi, forced with output from climate model HadCM3, we explore past biodiversity and vegetation carbon changes. We use JeDi to model an optimal 2000 combinations of fifteen different traits to enable assessment of the overall level of biodiversity as well as individual growth strategies. We assess the vegetation shifts and biodiversity changes in past greenhouse periods to better understand the impact on the terrestrial biosphere. This work provides original insights into the response of vegetation and terrestrial carbon to climate and hydrological changes in high carbon dioxide climates over time, including during the Late Permian and Cretaceous. We evaluate how the location of biodiversity hotspots and species richness in past greenhouse climates is different to the present day.
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Biswas, Kaushik; Abhari, Ramin
2014-10-03
A promising approach to increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is the implementation of a phase change material (PCM) in the building envelope. Numerous studies over the last two decades have reported the energy saving potential of PCMs in building envelopes, but their wide application has been inhibited, in part, by their high cost. This article describes a novel PCM made of naturally occurring fatty acids/glycerides trapped into high density polyethylene (HDPE) pellets and its performance in a building envelope application. The PCM-HDPE pellets were mixed with cellulose insulation and then added to an exterior wall of a test buildingmore » in a hot and humid climate, and tested over a period of several months, To demonstrate the efficacy of the PCM-enhanced cellulose insulation in reducing the building envelope heat gains and losses, side-by-side comparison was performed with another wall section filled with cellulose-only insulation. Further, numerical modeling of the test wall was performed to determine the actual impact of the PCM-HDPE pellets on wall-generated heating and cooling loads and the associated electricity consumption. The model was first validated using experimental data and then used for annual simulations using typical meteorological year (TMY3) weather data. Furthermore, this article presents the experimental data and numerical analyses showing the energy-saving potential of the new PCM.« less
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Isaac-Renton, Miriam G; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich
2014-08-01
We evaluate genetic test plantations of North American Douglas-fir provenances in Europe to quantify how tree populations respond when subjected to climate regime shifts, and we examined whether bioclimate envelope models developed for North America to guide assisted migration under climate change can retrospectively predict the success of these provenance transfers to Europe. The meta-analysis is based on long-term growth data of 2800 provenances transferred to 120 European test sites. The model was generally well suited to predict the best performing provenances along north-south gradients in Western Europe, but failed to predict superior performance of coastal North American populations under continental climate conditions in Eastern Europe. However, model projections appear appropriate when considering additional information regarding adaptation of Douglas-fir provenances to withstand frost and drought, even though the model partially fails in a validation against growth traits alone. We conclude by applying the partially validated model to climate change scenarios for Europe, demonstrating that climate trends observed over the last three decades warrant changes to current use of Douglas-fir provenances in plantation forestry throughout Western and Central Europe. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics
Brook, Barry W.; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Pressey, Robert L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E.
2016-01-01
The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. PMID:27729484
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Guo, Hongyu; Zhang, Yihui; Lan, Zhenjiang; Pennings, Steven C
2013-09-01
Many species are expanding their distributions to higher latitudes due to global warming. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these distribution shifts is critical for better understanding the impacts of climate changes. The climate envelope approach is widely used to model and predict species distribution shifts with changing climates. Biotic interactions between species, however, may also influence species distributions, and a better understanding of biotic interactions could improve predictions based solely on climate envelope models. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, USA, subtropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) at the northern limit of its distribution grows sympatrically with temperate salt marsh plants in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. In recent decades, freeze-free winters have led to an expansion of black mangrove into salt marshes. We examined how biotic interactions between black mangrove and salt marsh vegetation along the Texas coast varied across (i) a latitudinal gradient (associated with a winter-temperature gradient); (ii) the elevational gradient within each marsh (which creates different marsh habitats); and (iii) different life history stages of black mangroves (seedlings vs. juvenile trees). Each of these variables affected the strength or nature of biotic interactions between black mangrove and salt marsh vegetation: (i) Salt marsh vegetation facilitated black mangrove seedlings at their high-latitude distribution limit, but inhibited black mangrove seedlings at lower latitudes; (ii) mangroves performed well at intermediate elevations, but grew and survived poorly in high- and low-marsh habitats; and (iii) the effect of salt marsh vegetation on black mangroves switched from negative to neutral as black mangroves grew from seedlings into juvenile trees. These results indicate that the expansion of black mangroves is mediated by complex biotic interactions. A better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecological communities requires incorporating context-dependent biotic interactions into species range models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation
Schneider, Richard R.; Bayne, Erin M.
2015-01-01
Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous. PMID:25978759
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Comparative study of air-conditioning energy use of four office buildings in China and USA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhou, Xin; Yan, Da; An, Jingjing
Energy use in buildings has great variability. In order to design and operate low energy buildings as well as to establish building energy codes and standards and effective energy policy, it is crucial to understand and quantify key factors influencing building energy performance. Here, this study investigates air-conditioning (AC) energy use of four office buildings in four locations: Beijing, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Berkeley. Building simulation was employed to quantify the influences of key factors, including climate, building envelope and occupant behavior. Through simulation of various combinations of the three influencing elements, it is found that climate can lead tomore » AC cooling consumption differences by almost two times, while occupant behavior resulted in the greatest differences (of up to three times) in AC cooling consumption. The influence of occupant behavior on AC energy consumption is not homogeneous. Under similar climates, when the occupant behavior in the building differed, the optimized building envelope design also differed. In conclusion, the optimal building envelope should be determined according to the climate as well as the occupants who use the building.« less
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Comparative study of air-conditioning energy use of four office buildings in China and USA
Zhou, Xin; Yan, Da; An, Jingjing; ...
2018-04-05
Energy use in buildings has great variability. In order to design and operate low energy buildings as well as to establish building energy codes and standards and effective energy policy, it is crucial to understand and quantify key factors influencing building energy performance. Here, this study investigates air-conditioning (AC) energy use of four office buildings in four locations: Beijing, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Berkeley. Building simulation was employed to quantify the influences of key factors, including climate, building envelope and occupant behavior. Through simulation of various combinations of the three influencing elements, it is found that climate can lead tomore » AC cooling consumption differences by almost two times, while occupant behavior resulted in the greatest differences (of up to three times) in AC cooling consumption. The influence of occupant behavior on AC energy consumption is not homogeneous. Under similar climates, when the occupant behavior in the building differed, the optimized building envelope design also differed. In conclusion, the optimal building envelope should be determined according to the climate as well as the occupants who use the building.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baptista, Isaurinda; Irvine, Brian; Fleskens, Luuk; Geissen, Violette; Ritsema, Coen
2015-04-01
Rainfall variability, the occurrence of extreme drought and historic land management practice have been recognised as contributing to serious environmental impact in Cabo Verde. Investment in conservation measures has become visible throughout the landscape. Despite this the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of the conservation measures have been poorly assessed and documented. As such a concerted approach based on the DESIRE project continues to consult stackholders and carry out field trials for selected conservation technologies. Recent field trials have demonstrated the potential of conservation technologies but have also demonstrated that yield variability between sites and between years is significant. This variability appears to be driven by soil and rainfall characteristics However, where detailed field studies have only run for a limited period they have not as yet encountered the full range of climatic variability; thus a modelling approach is considered to capture a greater range of climatic conditions. The PESERA-DESMICE model is adopted which considers the biophysical and social economic benefits of the conservation technologies against a local baseline condition. PESERA is adopted as climate is implicitly considered in the model and, where appropriate, in-situ conservation measures are considered as an annual input to the soil. The DESMICE component of the model considers the suitability of the conservation measures and their costs and benefits in terms of environmental conditions and market access. Historic rainfall statistics are calculated from field measurements in the Ribeira Seca catchment. These statistics are used to generate a series of 50 year rainfall realisations to capture a fuller range of the climatic conditions. Each realisation provides a unique time-series of rainfall and through modelling can provide a simulated time-series of crop yield. Additional realisations and model simulations add to an envelope of the potential crop yield and cost-benefit relations. The development of such envelopes help express the agricultural risk associated with climate variability and the potential of the conservation measures to absorb the risk. Thus, highlighting the uncertainty of a given crop yield being achieved in any particular year. Such information that can directly inform or influence the adoption of conservation measures under the climatic variability of the Cabo Verde drylands.
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Performative building envelope design correlated to solar radiation and cooling energy consumption
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jacky, Thiodore; Santoni
2017-11-01
Climate change as an ongoing anthropogenic environmental challenge is predominantly caused by an amplification in the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs), notably carbon dioxide (CO2) in building sector. Global CO2 emissions are emitted from HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) occupation to provide thermal comfort in building. In fact, the amount of energy used for cooling or heating building is implication of building envelope design. Building envelope acts as interface layer of heat transfer between outdoor environment and the interior of a building. It appears as wall, window, roof and external shading device. This paper examines performance of various design strategy on building envelope to limit solar radiation and reduce cooling loads in tropical climate. The design strategies are considering orientation, window to wall ratio, material properties, and external shading device. This research applied simulation method using Autodesk Ecotect to investigate simultaneously between variations of wall and window ratio, shading device composition and the implication to the amount of solar radiation, cooling energy consumption. Comparative analysis on the data will determine logical variation between opening and shading device composition and cooling energy consumption. Optimizing the building envelope design is crucial strategy for reducing CO2 emissions and long-term energy reduction in building sector. Simulation technology as feedback loop will lead to better performative building envelope.
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Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.
Fordham, Damien A; Brook, Barry W; Hoskin, Conrad J; Pressey, Robert L; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E
2016-10-01
The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. © 2016 The Author(s).
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The species velocity of trees in Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; de Lafontaine, G.; Heath, K.; Li, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.
2017-12-01
Anthropogenic climate change has motivated interest in the paleo record to enhance our knowledge about past vegetation responses to climate change and help understand potential responses in the future. Additionally, polar regions currently experience the most rapid rates of climate change globally, prompting concern over changes in the ecological composition of high latitude ecosystems. Recent analyses have attempted to construct methods to estimate a species' ability to track climate change by computing climate velocity; a measure of the rate of climate displacement across a landscape which may indicate the speed an organism must migrate to keep pace with climate change. However, a challenge to using climate velocity in understanding range shifts is a lack of species-specificity in the velocity calculations: climate velocity does not actually use any species data in its analysis. To solve the shortcomings of climate velocity in estimating species displacement rates, we computed the "species velocity" of white spruce, green and grey alder populations across the state of Alaska from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today. Species velocity represents the rate and direction a species is required to migrate to keep pace with a changing climate following the LGM. We used a species distribution model to determine past and present white spruce and alder distributions using statistically downscaled climate data at 60m. Species velocity was then derived from the change in species distribution per year by the change in distribution over Alaska (km/yr). High velocities indicate locations where the species environmental envelope is changing drastically and must disperse rapidly to survive climate change. As a result, high velocity regions are more vulnerable to distribution shifts and higher risk of local extinction. Conversely, low species velocities indicate locations where the local climate envelope is shifting relatively slowly, reducing the stress to disperse quickly with minimal loss of optimal habitat. Our results suggest that these species do not exclusively redistribute to higher latitudes and elevations in a warming climate, suggesting that 1) microtopography plays a significant role in the distribution of a species and 2) many species may not be tracking temperature change, but other climate restrictions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Langer, M. R.; Weinmann, A. E.; Rödder, D.; Lötters, S.
2012-04-01
Species distribution models (SDMs) have become important tools in biogeography and biodiversity research over the last decades. They are mainly based on the fundamental niche concept and allow the correlative prediction of species' potential distributional ranges by combining occurrence records with information on environmental (e.g. climatic) conditions. The generated environmental envelope of a species is projected into geographic space, thus defining areas of adequate habitat suitability. Here we apply a species distribution model (SDM) to assess potential range expansions of Amphistegina spp. in the Mediterranean Sea under current und future climate conditions. The model uses an environmental envelope of information from localities where amphisteginids are currently known to occur. Amphisteginid foraminifers are a group of circumtropically distributed, larger symbiont-bearing, calcareous foraminifera that have a well-documented record as detectors of historical climate change. They are currently expanding their biogeographic range in the Mediterranean Sea and rapidly progressing northwestward, closely approaching the Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian Sea. The shift in range locally leads to profound ecological changes where amphisteginids have become the dominant species along entire stretches of coastline. Mass deposits of amphisteginids reflect an increased carbonate production and reduced assemblage diversity, and these are likely to trigger major changes in ecosystem functioning. It is anticipated that the ongoing warming trend will convey the northwestward migration of amphisteginid foraminifers. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a northwestward range extension and predicts dispersal through the straits of Sicily, Messina and Otranto into the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic Sea. Rapid proliferation and the extreme abundances of amphisteginid foraminifera affect the dynamic equilibrium of established foraminiferal biotas. In the eastern Mediterranean, diverse assemblages of shallow-water foraminifera are being replaced by monocultures of rapidly spreading amphisteginids. Climate change, through long-term temperature increase, will continue to promote the homogenization of foraminiferal fauna, ultimately leading to a meridionalization of the Mediterranean Sea.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Irvine, Brian; Fleskens, Luuk; Kirkby, Mike
2016-04-01
Stakeholders in recent EU projects identified soil erosion as the most frequent driver of land degradation in semi-arid environments. In a number of sites, historic land management and rainfall variability are recognised as contributing to the serious environmental impact. In order to consider the potential of sustainable land management and water harvesting techniques stakeholders and study sites from the projects selected and trialled both local technologies and promising technologies reported from other sites . The combined PESERA and DESMICE modelling approach considered the regional effects of the technologies in combating desertification both in environmental and socio-economical terms. Initial analysis was based on long term average climate data with the model run to equilibrium. Current analysis, primarily based on the WAHARA study sites considers rainfall variability more explicitly in time series mode. The PESERA-DESMICE approach considers the difference between a baseline scenario and a (water harvesting) technology scenario, typically, in terms of productivity, financial viability and scope for reducing erosion risk. A series of 50 year rainfall realisations are generated from observed data to capture a full range of the climatic variability. Each realisation provides a unique time-series of rainfall and through modelling can provide a simulated time-series of crop yield and erosion risk for both baseline conditions and technology scenarios. Subsequent realisations and model simulations add to an envelope of the potential crop yield and cost-benefit relations. The development of such envelopes helps express the agricultural and erosional risk associated with climate variability and the potential for conservation measures to absorb the risk, highlighting the probability of achieving a given crop yield or erosion limit. Information that can directly inform or influence the local adoption of conservation measures under the climatic variability in semi-arid areas
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Freedman, Adam H; Buermann, Wolfgang; Lebreton, Matthew; Chirio, Laurent; Smith, Thomas B
2009-02-01
We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus), olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus), and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus). Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.
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US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.
Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay
2016-08-01
Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change
Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze
2008-01-01
As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...
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Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool
Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Barnett, David T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kartesz, John T.
2010-01-01
The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of current distributions for new invasive exotic species.
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Russell, Bayden D.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Connell, Sean D.
2012-01-01
Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317
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Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
Muller, Richard A.; MacDonald, Gordon J.
1997-01-01
Spectral analysis of climate data shows a strong narrow peak with period ≈100 kyr, attributed by the Milankovitch theory to changes in the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit. The narrowness of the peak does suggest an astronomical origin; however the shape of the peak is incompatible with both linear and nonlinear models that attribute the cycle to eccentricity or (equivalently) to the envelope of the precession. In contrast, the orbital inclination parameter gives a good match to both the spectrum and bispectrum of the climate data. Extraterrestrial accretion from meteoroids or interplanetary dust is proposed as a mechanism that could link inclination to climate, and experimental tests are described that could prove or disprove this hypothesis. PMID:11607741
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Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N L; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Ángeles-Pérez, Gregorio
2017-11-01
Symbiotic nitrogen (N)-fixing trees can drive N and carbon cycling and thus are critical components of future climate projections. Despite detailed understanding of how climate influences N-fixation enzyme activity and physiology, comparatively little is known about how climate influences N-fixing tree abundance. Here, we used forest inventory data from the USA and Mexico (>125,000 plots) along with climate data to address two questions: (1) How does the abundance distribution of N-fixing trees (rhizobial, actinorhizal, and both types together) vary with mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP)? (2) How will changing climate shift the abundance distribution of N-fixing trees? We found that rhizobial N-fixing trees were nearly absent below 15°C MAT, but above 15°C MAT, they increased in abundance as temperature rose. We found no evidence for a hump-shaped response to temperature throughout the range of our data. Rhizobial trees were more abundant in dry than in wet ecosystems. By contrast, actinorhizal trees peaked in abundance at 5-10°C MAT and were least abundant in areas with intermediate precipitation. Next, we used a climate-envelope approach to project how N-fixing tree relative abundance might change in the future. The climate-envelope projection showed that rhizobial N-fixing trees will likely become more abundant in many areas by 2080, particularly in the southern USA and western Mexico, due primarily to rising temperatures. Projections for actinorhizal N-fixing trees were more nuanced due to their nonmonotonic dependence on temperature and precipitation. Overall, the dominant trend is that warming will increase N-fixing tree abundance in much of the USA and Mexico, with large increases up to 40° North latitude. The quantitative link we provide between climate and N-fixing tree abundance can help improve the representation of symbiotic N fixation in Earth System Models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McKenney, D.; Pedlar, J.
2011-12-01
Climate is one of the major influences on forests and much effort has gone into projecting the impacts of rapid climate change on forest distribution and productivity. Such efforts are premised on the notion that the current generation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide reasonably accurate representations of future climate. But what is the appropriate level of faith to put in these projections when making relatively fine-scale resource management decisions such as the movement of plant genetic material? In this talk we review recent outcomes of climate envelope models for North American tree species that suggest optimal climate regimes could move on average ~700km within the next 100 years. Newer generation GCMs seem to confirm these results but much uncertainty remains for practical decision-making. Despite these uncertainties, assisted migration has been suggested as a climate change adaptation tool wherein populations of trees are moved up to a few hundred kilometers north (or a few hundred meters upslope) to keep pace with the anticipated changes in optimal climate regimes. A continent-wide web based tool (SEEDWHERE) is presented, which assists in identifying appropriate translocation distances for assisted migration initiatives. We finish with some suggestions for future work on the topic of forest regeneration decisions under an evolving and uncertain future climate.
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Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coutu, S.; Kramer, S.; Barry, D. A.; Roudier, P.
2012-12-01
Runoff from urban environments is generally contaminated. These contaminants mostly originate from road traffic and building envelopes. Facade envelopes generate lead, zinc and even biocides, which are used for facade protection. Road traffic produces particles from tires and brakes. The transport of these pollutants to the environment is controlled by rainfall. The interval, duration and intensity of rainfall events are important as the dynamics of the pollutants are often modeled with non-linear buildup/washoff functions. Buildup occurs during dry weather when pollution accumulates, and is subsequently washed-off at the time of the following rainfall, contaminating surface runoff. Climate predictions include modified rainfall distributions, with changes in both number and intensity of events, even if the expected annual rainfall varies little. Consequently, pollutant concentrations in urban runoff driven by buildup/washoff processes will be affected by these changes in rainfall distributions. We investigated to what extent modifications in future rainfall distributions will impact the concentrations of pollutants present in urban surface runoff. The study used the example of Lausanne, Switzerland (temperate climate zone). Three emission scenarios (time horizon 2090), multiple combinations of RCM/GCM and modifications in rain event frequency were used to simulate future rainfall distributions with various characteristics. Simulated rainfall events were used as inputs for four pairs of buildup/washoff models, in order to compare future pollution concentrations in surface runoff. In this way, uncertainty in model structure was also investigated. Future concentrations were estimated to be between ±40% of today's concentrations depending on the season and, importantly, on the choice of the RCM/GCM model. Overall, however, the dominant factor was the uncertainty inherent in buildup/washoff models, which dominated over the uncertainty in future rainfall distributions. Consequently, the choice of a proper buildup/washoff model, with calibrated site-specific coefficients, is a major factor in modeling future runoff concentrations from contaminated urban surfaces.
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Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.
Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
2017-09-01
Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jacobson, Mark Z.
2014-07-01
Thank you, Atmospheric Sciences section of AGU for bestowing this humbling honor on me. Thank you, Dr. Ramanathan, for your gracious nomination. Thank you to all my mentors, colleagues, students, special friends, parents, children, and even critics, over the years who supported my pushing the envelope to better understand the impacts of black carbon on climate and air pollution health through numerical modeling.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio
2015-05-01
Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the relative abundance and distribution of the studied species forced by changes in the regionalised SST projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a slight decline of 6% (17 kg/1000 hooks) and 7% (3.8 ton/100 m3) for swordfish and common sardine, respectively, in the spatial mean of the potential relative abundance (CPUE) by 2065.
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Christopher S. Balzotti; Stanley G. Kitchen; Clinton McCarthy
2016-01-01
Federal land management agencies and conservation organizations have begun incorporating climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) as an important component in the management and conservation of landscapes. It is often a challenge to translate that knowledge into management plans and actions, even when research infers species risk. Predictive maps can...
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Prestoration: Using species in restoration that will persist now and into the future
Butterfield, B.J.; Copeland, Stella; Munson, Seth M.; Roybal, C.M.; Wood, Troy E.
2017-01-01
Climate change presents new challenges for selecting species for restoration. If migration fails to keep pace with climate change, as models predict, the most suitable sources for restoration may not occur locally at all. To address this issue we propose a strategy of “prestoration”: utilizing species in restoration for which a site represents suitable habitat now and into the future. Using the Colorado Plateau, USA as a case study, we assess the ability of grass species currently used regionally in restoration to persist into the future using projections of ecological niche models (or climate envelope models) across a suite of climate change scenarios. We then present a technique for identifying new species that best compensate for future losses of suitable habitat by current target species. We found that the current suite of species, selected by a group of experts, is predicted to perform reasonably well in the short-term, but that losses of prestorable habitat by mid-century would approach 40%. Using an algorithm to identify additional species, we found that fewer than ten species could compensate for nearly all of the losses incurred by the current target species. This case study highlights the utility of integrating ecological niche modeling and future climate forecasts to predict the utility of species in restoring under climate change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
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Response of Marine Taxa to Climate Variability in the Southeast U.S.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morley, J. W.; Pinsky, M. L.; Batt, R. D.
2016-02-01
Climate change has led to large-scale redistributions of marine taxa in many coastal regions around North America. Specifically, marine populations respond to spatial shifts in their preferred temperature conditions, or thermal envelope, as they shift across a seascape. The influence of climate change on the coastal fisheries of the southeast U.S. has been largely unexplored. We analyzed 25 years of trawl survey data (1990-2014) from the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP), which samples the nearshore continental shelf of the South Atlantic Bight during spring, summer, and fall. Bottom temperatures exhibited no trend over this period and the assemblage showed no net shift north or south. However, taxa distributions were sensitive to interannual temperature variation. Annual projections of taxa thermal envelopes explained variation in centroid location for many species, particularly during spring. Accordingly, long-term latitudinal shifts in taxa-specific thermal envelopes, which trended to the north or south depending on the species, were highly correlated with centroid shifts during spring. One explanation for our results is that the phenology of taxa migration is adaptable to temperature variation. In particular, the inshore-offshore movement of species during spring and fall appears quite responsive to interannual temperature variability.
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D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire
2011-01-01
Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...
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Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans
Ostfeld, Richard S.; Brunner, Jesse L.
2015-01-01
The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25688022
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Combined experimental and numerical evaluation of a prototype nano-PCM enhanced wallboard
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Biswas, Kaushik; LuPh.D., Jue; Soroushian, Parviz
2014-01-01
In the United States, forty-eight (48) percent of the residential end-use energy consumption is spent on space heating and air conditioning. Reducing envelope-generated heating and cooling loads through application of phase change material (PCM)-enhanced building envelopes can facilitate maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. Combined experimental testing and numerical modeling of PCM-enhanced envelope components are two important aspects of the evaluation of their energy benefits. An innovative phase change material (nano-PCM) was developed with PCM encapsulated with expanded graphite (interconnected) nanosheets, which is highly conductive for enhanced thermal storage and energy distribution, and is shape-stable for convenient incorporation into lightweightmore » building components. A wall with cellulose cavity insulation and prototype PCM-enhanced interior wallboards was built and tested in a natural exposure test (NET) facility in a hot-humid climate location. The test wall contained PCM wallboards and regular gypsum wallboard, for a side-by-side annual comparison study. Further, numerical modeling of the walls containing the nano-PCM wallboard was performed to determine its actual impact on wall-generated heating and cooling loads. The model was first validated using experimental data, and then used for annual simulations using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather data. This article presents the measured performance and numerical analysis evaluating the energy-saving potential of the nano-PCM-enhanced wallboard.« less
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Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.
Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C
2013-01-01
Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.
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Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine
2010-01-01
Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine
2010-09-01
Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.
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The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees.
Deb, Jiban C; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A
2017-04-01
Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal ( Shorea robusta ) and Garjan ( Dipterocarpus turbinatus ) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool "MaxEnt" (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.
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A synopsis of climate change effects on groundwater recharge
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smerdon, Brian D.
2017-12-01
Six review articles published between 2011 and 2016 on groundwater and climate change are briefly summarized. This synopsis focuses on aspects related to predicting changes to groundwater recharge conditions, with several common conclusions between the review articles being noted. The uncertainty of distribution and trend in future precipitation from General Circulation Models (GCMs) results in varying predictions of recharge, so much so that modelling studies are often not able to predict the magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) of future recharge conditions. Evolution of modelling approaches has led to the use of multiple GCMs and hydrologic models to create an envelope of future conditions that reflects the probability distribution. The choice of hydrologic model structure and complexity, and the choice of emissions scenario, has been investigated and somewhat resolved; however, recharge results remain sensitive to downscaling methods. To overcome uncertainty and provide practical use in water management, the research community indicates that modelling at a mesoscale, somewhere between watersheds and continents, is likely ideal. Improvements are also suggested for incorporating groundwater processes within GCMs.
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Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.
Rodda, Gordon H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Reed, Robert N
2011-02-09
Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.
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Challenges in Identifying Sites Climatically Matched to the Native Ranges of Animal Invaders
Rodda, Gordon H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Reed, Robert N.
2011-01-01
Background Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk. PMID:21347411
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Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders
Rodda, G.H.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Reed, R.N.
2011-01-01
Background: Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings: Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance: When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.
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Earth tides, volcanos and climatic change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Roosen, R. G.; Harrington, R. S.; Giles, J.; Browning, I.
1976-01-01
The effect of variations in tidal stresses on the earth caused by the sun and moon on volcanic activity and climate is investigated. A statistically significant correlation is found between the derivatives of the envelopes of peak tidal stresses at high northern latitudes and the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere as reflected in oxygen isotope ratios in the Greenland ice cap. It is suggested that variations in tidal stresses cause changes in the amount of stratospheric dust produced by volcanic activity, which affects the thickness of the stratospheric dust veil and the atmospheric radiation balance. For a simple model, periodic variations in tidal stress account for 13% of the variance in the ice-core temperature record.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl
2011-07-01
During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.
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A rule-based expert system applied to moisture durability of building envelopes
Boudreaux, Philip R.; Pallin, Simon B.; Accawi, Gina K.; ...
2018-01-09
The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy’s Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert systemmore » methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. Finally, the expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kharbouch, Yassine; Mimet, Abdelaziz; El Ganaoui, Mohammed; Ouhsaine, Lahoucine
2018-07-01
This study investigates the thermal energy potentials and economic feasibility of an air-conditioned family household-integrated phase change material (PCM) considering different climate zones in Morocco. A simulation-based optimisation was carried out in order to define the optimal design of a PCM-enhanced household envelope for thermal energy effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of predefined candidate solutions. The optimisation methodology is based on coupling Energyplus® as a dynamic simulation tool and GenOpt® as an optimisation tool. Considering the obtained optimum design strategies, a thermal energy and economic analysis are carried out to investigate PCMs' integration feasibility in the Moroccan constructions. The results show that the PCM-integrated household envelope allows minimising the cooling/heating thermal energy demand vs. a reference household without PCM. While for the cost-effectiveness optimisation, it has been deduced that the economic feasibility is stilling insufficient under the actual PCM market conditions. The optimal design parameters results are also analysed.
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A rule-based expert system applied to moisture durability of building envelopes
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Boudreaux, Philip R.; Pallin, Simon B.; Accawi, Gina K.
The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy’s Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert systemmore » methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. Finally, the expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.« less
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Laboratory testing of a building envelope segment based on cellular concrete
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fořt, Jan; Pavlík, Zbyšek; Černý, Robert
2016-07-01
Hygrothermal performance of a building envelope based on cellular concrete blocks is studied in the paper. Simultaneously, the strain fields induced by the heat and moisture changes are monitored. The studied wall is exposed to the climatic load corresponding to the winter climatic conditions of the moderate year for Prague. The winter climatic exposure is chosen in order to simulate the critical conditions of the building structure from the point of view of material performance and temperature and humidity loading. The evaluation of hygrothermal performance of a researched wall is done on the basis of relative humidity and temperature profiles measured along the cross section of the cellular concrete blocks. Strain gauges are fixed on the wall surface in expected orientation of the blocks expansion. The obtained results show a good hygrothermal function of the analyzed cellular concrete wall and its insignificant strain.
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Global climate and the distribution of plant biomes.
Woodward, F I; Lomas, M R; Kelly, C K
2004-10-29
Biomes are areas of vegetation that are characterized by the same life-form. Traditional definitions of biomes have also included either geographical or climatic descriptors. This approach describes a wide range of biomes that can be correlated with characteristic climatic conditions, or climatic envelopes. The application of remote sensing technology to the frequent observation of biomes has led to a move away from the often subjective definition of biomes to one that is objective. Carefully characterized observations of life-form, by satellite, have been used to reconsider biome classification and their climatic envelopes. Five major tree biomes can be recognized by satellites based on leaf longevity and morphology: needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf evergreen, needleleaf deciduous, broadleaf cold deciduous and broadleaf drought deciduous. Observations indicate that broadleaf drought deciduous vegetation grades substantially into broadleaf evergreen vegetation. The needleleaf deciduous biome occurs in the world's coldest climates, where summer drought and therefore a drought deciduous biome are absent. Traditional biome definitions are quite static, implying no change in their life-form composition with time, within their particular climatic envelopes. However, this is not the case where there has been global ingress of grasslands and croplands into forested vegetation. The global spread of grasses, a new super-biome, was probably initiated 30-45 Myr ago by an increase in global aridity, and was driven by the natural spread of the disturbances of fire and animal grazing. These disturbances have been further extended over the Holocene era by human activities that have increased the land areas available for domestic animal grazing and for growing crops. The current situation is that grasses now occur in most, if not all biomes, and in many areas they dominate and define the biome. Croplands are also increasing, defining a new and relatively recent component to the grassland super-biome. In the case of both grassland and croplands, various forms of disturbance, particularly frequent disturbance, lead to continued range extensions of the biomes.
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Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States
Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.
2018-01-01
using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.
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Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce
2013-04-01
The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D
2014-06-01
There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Triviño, Maria; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar; Hickler, Thomas; Araújo, Miguel B.
2011-01-01
Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species. PMID:22216263
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Climate Change Adopted Building Envelope as A Protector of Human Health in the Urban Environment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Januszkiewicz, Krystyna
2017-10-01
Recently, an expanded understanding of building performance acknowledges that all forces acting on buildings (climate, energies, information, and human agents) are not static and fixed, but rather mutable and transient. With the use of parametric and multi-criteria optimization digital tools, buildings’ envelopes can be designed to respond to various requirements. This paper explores the possibilities of architectural design to benefit human conditions, which encompasses mental well-being, environmental quality of life during the Climate Change era. The first part of the paper defines the main factors (such as: lack of green nature and sunlight, noise and pollution) which are influencing the formation of psychological disorder in big cities. The negative impact of these factors is constantly increasing in the time of Climate Change progressing. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by author. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights a social problem, such as mental well-being, resulting from urbanization or effects of the climate change, and serves as a useful background for further research on the possibilities of redefining sustainable and human friendly design.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, Na; Makhmalbaf, Atefe; Srivastava, Viraj
This paper presents a new technique for and the results of normalizing building energy consumption to enable a fair comparison among various types of buildings located near different weather stations across the U.S. The method was developed for the U.S. Building Energy Asset Score, a whole-building energy efficiency rating system focusing on building envelope, mechanical systems, and lighting systems. The Asset Score is calculated based on simulated energy use under standard operating conditions. Existing weather normalization methods such as those based on heating and cooling degrees days are not robust enough to adjust all climatic factors such as humidity andmore » solar radiation. In this work, over 1000 sets of climate coefficients were developed to separately adjust building heating, cooling, and fan energy use at each weather station in the United States. This paper also presents a robust, standardized weather station mapping based on climate similarity rather than choosing the closest weather station. This proposed simulated-based climate adjustment was validated through testing on several hundreds of thousands of modeled buildings. Results indicated the developed climate coefficients can isolate and adjust for the impacts of local climate for asset rating.« less
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Yu, Xiaozhi; Ren, Jindong; Zhang, Qian; Liu, Qun; Liu, Honghao
2017-04-01
Reach envelopes are very useful for the design and layout of controls. In building reach envelopes, one of the key problems is to represent the reach limits accurately and conveniently. Spherical harmonics are proved to be accurate and convenient method for fitting of the reach capability envelopes. However, extensive study are required on what components of spherical harmonics are needed in fitting the envelope surfaces. For applications in the vehicle industry, an inevitable issue is to construct reach limit surfaces with consideration of the seating positions of the drivers, and it is desirable to use population envelopes rather than individual envelopes. However, it is relatively inconvenient to acquire reach envelopes via a test considering the seating positions of the drivers. In addition, the acquired envelopes are usually unsuitable for use with other vehicle models because they are dependent on the current cab packaging parameters. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct reach envelopes for real vehicle conditions based on individual capability data considering seating positions. Moreover, traditional reach envelopes provide little information regarding the assessment of reach difficulty. The application of reach envelopes will improve design quality by providing difficulty-rating information about reach operations. In this paper, using the laboratory data of seated reach with consideration of the subjective difficulty ratings, the method of modeling reach envelopes is studied based on spherical harmonics. The surface fitting using spherical harmonics is conducted for circumstances both with and without seat adjustments. For use with adjustable seat, the seating position model is introduced to re-locate the test data. The surface fitting is conducted for both population and individual reach envelopes, as well as for boundary envelopes. Comparison of the envelopes of adjustable seat and the SAE J287 control reach envelope shows that the latter is nearly at the middle difficulty level. It is also found that the abilities of reach envelope models in expressing the shape of the reach limits based on spherical harmonics depends both on the terms in the model expression and on the data used to fit the envelope surfaces. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Functional consequences of climate change-induced plant species loss in a tallgrass prairie.
Craine, Joseph M; Nippert, Jesse B; Towne, E Gene; Tucker, Sally; Kembel, Steven W; Skibbe, Adam; McLauchlan, Kendra K
2011-04-01
Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns, the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change.
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Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.
van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank
2017-04-01
Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.
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Life Cycle Assessment of Wall Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramachandran, Sriranjani
Natural resource depletion and environmental degradation are the stark realities of the times we live in. As awareness about these issues increases globally, industries and businesses are becoming interested in understanding and minimizing the ecological footprints of their activities. Evaluating the environmental impacts of products and processes has become a key issue, and the first step towards addressing and eventually curbing climate change. Additionally, companies are finding it beneficial and are interested in going beyond compliance using pollution prevention strategies and environmental management systems to improve their environmental performance. Life-cycle Assessment (LCA) is an evaluative method to assess the environmental impacts associated with a products' life-cycle from cradle-to-grave (i.e. from raw material extraction through to material processing, manufacturing, distribution, use, repair and maintenance, and finally, disposal or recycling). This study focuses on evaluating building envelopes on the basis of their life-cycle analysis. In order to facilitate this analysis, a small-scale office building, the University Services Building (USB), with a built-up area of 148,101 ft2 situated on ASU campus in Tempe, Arizona was studied. The building's exterior envelope is the highlight of this study. The current exterior envelope is made of tilt-up concrete construction, a type of construction in which the concrete elements are constructed horizontally and tilted up, after they are cured, using cranes and are braced until other structural elements are secured. This building envelope is compared to five other building envelope systems (i.e. concrete block, insulated concrete form, cast-in-place concrete, steel studs and curtain wall constructions) evaluating them on the basis of least environmental impact. The research methodology involved developing energy models, simulating them and generating changes in energy consumption due to the above mentioned envelope types. Energy consumption data, along with various other details, such as building floor area, areas of walls, columns, beams etc. and their material types were imported into Life-Cycle Assessment software called ATHENA impact estimator for buildings. Using this four-stepped LCA methodology, the results showed that the Steel Stud envelope performed the best and less environmental impact compared to other envelope types. This research methodology can be applied to other building typologies.
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Data on cost-optimal Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) across Europe.
D'Agostino, Delia; Parker, Danny
2018-04-01
This data article refers to the research paper A model for the cost-optimal design of Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) in representative climates across Europe [1]. The reported data deal with the design optimization of a residential building prototype located in representative European locations. The study focus on the research of cost-optimal choices and efficiency measures in new buildings depending on the climate. The data linked within this article relate to the modelled building energy consumption, renewable production, potential energy savings, and costs. Data allow to visualize energy consumption before and after the optimization, selected efficiency measures, costs and renewable production. The reduction of electricity and natural gas consumption towards the NZEB target can be visualized together with incremental and cumulative costs in each location. Further data is available about building geometry, costs, CO 2 emissions, envelope, materials, lighting, appliances and systems.
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Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.
Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri
2011-01-01
1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.
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The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.
Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T R
2013-01-01
Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.
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The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios
Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T. R.
2013-01-01
Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. PMID:23874787
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Boutrand, Laetitia-Barbollat; Thépot, Amélie; Muther, Charlotte; Boher, Aurélie; Robic, Julie; Guéré, Christelle; Vié, Katell; Damour, Odile; Lamartine, Jérôme
2017-01-01
Human skin is subject to frequent changes in ambient temperature and humidity and needs to cope with these environmental modifications. To decipher the molecular response of human skin to repeated climatic change, a versatile model of skin equivalent subject to "hot-wet" (40°C, 80% relative humidity [RH]) or "cold-dry" (10°C, 40% RH) climatic stress repeated daily was used. To obtain an exhaustive view of the molecular mechanisms elicited by climatic change, large-scale gene expression DNA microarray analysis was performed and modulated function was determined by bioinformatic annotation. This analysis revealed several functions, including epidermal differentiation and extracellular matrix, impacted by repeated variations in climatic conditions. Some of these molecular changes were confirmed by histological examination and protein expression. Both treatments (hot-wet and cold-dry) reduced the expression of genes encoding collagens, laminin, and proteoglycans, suggesting a profound remodeling of the extracellular matrix. Strong induction of the entire family of late cornified envelope genes after cold-dry exposure, confirmed at protein level, was also observed. These changes correlated with an increase in epidermal differentiation markers such as corneodesmosin and a thickening of the stratum corneum, indicating possible implementation of defense mechanisms against dehydration. This study for the first time reveals the complex pattern of molecular response allowing adaption of human skin to repeated change in its climatic environment.
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A New Model of Orbital Pacing for Pliocene Glaciations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herbert, T.; Dowsett, H. J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.
2015-12-01
The earth's climate system has gone through major changes over time that serve as natural experiments to test our understanding of linkages and feedbacks that may come into play if the Earth continues to warm, as expected from greenhouse gas forcing. Our project investigates patterns of climate change between the northern and southern hemispheres during the mid-Pliocene epoch (~3-4 Myr ago) when the overall climate state was warmer than today. Critically, evidence suggests that the amount of ice on Antarctica was similar to today, but that there was little or no permanent ice on land in the northern hemisphere. Most climate scientists have therefore supposed that orbitally-paced climate change would initiate in the region around the Antarctic, and be driven primarily by the 41,000 year obliquity cycle. Using distributed data sets on both sea surface temperature and the combination of deep sea temperature and global ice volume recorded by ð18O, we find a pervasive influence of eccentricity/precession on Pliocene paleoclimate that has been under-appreciated. We tentatively constrain the phase of the climate response by calibrating temperature patterns to the precessional "clock" of the Mediterranean sapropel sequence. Large Pliocene glacial events were paced by precession, and coincide with minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation. This mode is in many ways the opposite of the late Pleistocene, where climate positively follows the envelope of northern hemisphere precession. In the Pliocene case, glacial periods instead followed the lower envelope of precession and nodes of low precessional variance supported peak interglacial conditions. The observations can be explained by positing that during the warmer Pliocene, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere could only support cryosphere expansion during times of minimal summer insolation. While the presence of ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic and North Pacific unambiguously confirm a northern hemisphere component to peak Pliocene glaciations, the amplitude of the ð18O excursions in features such as isotope stage M2 almost certainly requires a significant coupling to Antarctic ice volume as well.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elias, E.; Lopez-Brody, N.; Dialesandro, J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.
2015-12-01
The impacts of projected temperature increases in agricultural ecosystems are complex, varyingby region, cropping system, crop growth stage and humidity. We analyze the impacts of mid-century temperature increases on crops grown in five southwestern states: Arizona, California,New Mexico, Nevada and Utah. Here we present a spatial impact assessment of commonsouthwestern specialty (grapes, almonds and tomatoes) and field (alfalfa, cotton and corn)crops. This analysis includes three main components: development of empirical temperaturethresholds for each crop, classification of predicted future climate conditions according to thesethresholds, and mapping the probable impacts of these climatic changes on each crop. We use30m spatial resolution 2012 crop distribution and seasonal minimum and maximumtemperature normals (1970 to 2000) to define the current thermal envelopes for each crop.These represent the temperature range for each season where 95% of each crop is presentlygrown. Seasonal period change analysis of mid-century temperatures changes downscaled from20 CMIP5 models (RCP8.5) estimate future temperatures. Change detection maps representareas predicted to become more or less suitable, or remain unchanged. Based upon mid-centurytemperature changes, total regional suitable area declined for all crops except cotton, whichincreased by 20%. For each crop there are locations which change to and from optimal thermalenvelope conditions. More than 80% of the acres currently growing tomatoes and almonds willshift outside the present 95% thermal range. Fewer acres currently growing alfalfa (14%) andcotton (20%) will shift outside the present 95% thermal range by midcentury. Crops outsidepresent thermal envelopes by midcentury may adapt, possibly aided by adaptation technologiessuch as misters or shade structures, to the new temperature regime or growers may elect togrow alternate crops better suited to future thermal envelopes.
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Samuel Glass; Vladimir Kochkin; S. Drumheller; Lance Barta
2015-01-01
Long-term moisture performance is a critical consideration for design and construction of building envelopes in energy-efficient buildings, yet field measurements of moisture characteristics for highly insulated wood-frame walls in mixed-humid climates are lacking. Temperature, relative humidity, and moisture content of wood framing and oriented strand board (OSB)...
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Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada.
Gray, Laura K; Hamann, Andreas
2011-01-01
Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.
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Study on the optimum PCM melting temperature for energy savings in residential buildings worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saffari, M.; de Gracia, A.; Fernández, C.; Zsembinszki, G.; Cabeza, L. F.
2017-10-01
To maintain comfort conditions in residential buildings along a full year period, the use of active systems is generally required to either supply heating or cooling. The heating and cooling demands strongly depend on the climatic conditions, type of building and occupants’ behaviour. The overall annual energy consumption of the building can be reduced by the use of renewable energy sources and/or passive systems. The use of phase change materials (PCM) as passive systems in buildings enhances the thermal mass of the envelope, and reduces the indoor temperature fluctuations. As a consequence, the overall energy consumption of the building is generally lower as compared to the case when no PCM systems are used. The selection of the PCM melting temperature is a key issue to reduce the energy consumption of the buildings. The main focus of this study is to determine the optimum PCM melting temperature for passive heating and cooling according to different weather conditions. To achieve that, numerical simulations were carried out using EnergyPlus v8.4 coupled with GenOpt® v3.1.1 (a generic optimization software). A multi-family residential apartment was selected from ASHRAE Standard 90.1- 2013 prototype building model, and different climate conditions were considered to determine the optimum melting temperature (in the range from 20ºC to 26ºC) of the PCM contained in gypsum panels. The results confirm that the optimum melting temperature of the PCM strongly depends on the climatic conditions. In general, in cooling dominant climates the optimum PCM temperature is around 26ºC, while in heating dominant climates it is around 20ºC. Furthermore, the results show that an adequate selection of the PCM as passive system in building envelope can provide important energy savings for both heating dominant and cooling dominant regions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanderson, B. M.
2017-12-01
The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the weighted ensemble distribution? If CMIP is an ensemble of partially informed best-guesses, can we infer anything about the parent distribution of all possible models of the climate system (and if not, are we implicitly under-representing the risk of a climate catastrophe outside of the envelope of CMIP simulations)?
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Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.
2014-01-01
Our results indicated that climate-induced contractions and shifts in seedling distribution in response to recent change are already under way and are particularly severe in montane tree species. While adult trees may persist for hundreds of years without significant regeneration, tree species ranges will eventually contract where tree regeneration fails.
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Jarnevich, C.S.; Rodda, G.H.; Reed, R.N.
2011-01-01
Giant Constrictors' Climate Space The giant constrictors' climate space data set represents the information needed to recreate the climate space and climate matching analyses in Reed and Rodda (2009). A detailed methodology and results are included in that report. The data include locations for nine species of large constrictors including Python molurus, Broghammerus reticulatus, P. sebae, P. natalensis, Boa constrictor, Eunectes notaeus, E. deschauenseei, E. beniensis, and E. murinus. The locations are from published sources. Climate data are included for monthly precipitation and average monthly temperature along with the species locations. The individual spreadsheets of location data match the figures in the Reed and Rodda (2009) report, illustrating areas of the mainland United States that match the climate envelope of the native range. The precipitation and temperature data at each location were used to determine the climate space for each species. Graphs of climate space formed the basis for the algorithms in the data set, and more details can be found in Reed and Rodda (2009). These algorithms were used in ArcGIS to generate maps of areas in the United States that matched the climate space of locations of the snakes in their native range. We discovered a rounding error in ArcGIS in the implementation of the algorithms, which has been corrected here. Therefore the shapefiles are slightly different than those appearing in the risk assessment figures illustrating areas of the United States that match the climate envelope of the species in their native ranges. However, the suitable localities are not different at the scale of intended use for these maps, although there are more noticeable differences between areas classified as 'too cold' and 'too hot'.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cook, Ellyn J.; van der Kaars, Sander
2006-10-01
We review attempts to derive quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data, including the climatic envelope, climatic indicator and modern analogue approaches, and outline the need to pursue alternatives for use as input to, or validation of, simulations by models of past, present and future climate patterns. To this end, we have constructed and tested modern pollen-climate transfer functions for mainland southeastern Australia and Tasmania using the existing southeastern Australian pollen database and for northern Australia using a new pollen database we are developing. After testing for statistical significance, 11 parameters were selected for mainland southeastern Australia, seven for Tasmania and six for northern Australia. The functions are based on weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and their predictive ability evaluated against modern observational climate data using leave-one-out cross-validation. Functions for summer, annual and winter rainfall and temperatures are most robust for southeastern Australia, while in Tasmania functions for minimum temperature of the coldest period, mean winter and mean annual temperature are the most reliable. In northern Australia, annual and summer rainfall and annual and summer moisture indexes are the strongest. The validation of all functions means all can be applied to Quaternary pollen records from these three areas with confidence. Copyright
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Multi-scale signed envelope inversion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Guo-Xin; Wu, Ru-Shan; Wang, Yu-Qing; Chen, Sheng-Chang
2018-06-01
Envelope inversion based on modulation signal mode was proposed to reconstruct large-scale structures of underground media. In order to solve the shortcomings of conventional envelope inversion, multi-scale envelope inversion was proposed using new envelope Fréchet derivative and multi-scale inversion strategy to invert strong contrast models. In multi-scale envelope inversion, amplitude demodulation was used to extract the low frequency information from envelope data. However, only to use amplitude demodulation method will cause the loss of wavefield polarity information, thus increasing the possibility of inversion to obtain multiple solutions. In this paper we proposed a new demodulation method which can contain both the amplitude and polarity information of the envelope data. Then we introduced this demodulation method into multi-scale envelope inversion, and proposed a new misfit functional: multi-scale signed envelope inversion. In the numerical tests, we applied the new inversion method to the salt layer model and SEG/EAGE 2-D Salt model using low-cut source (frequency components below 4 Hz were truncated). The results of numerical test demonstrated the effectiveness of this method.
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The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Blackburn, Michael; Williamson, David L.; Nakajima, Kensuke; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Ishiwatari, Masaki; Mcgregor, John L.; Borth, Hartmut;
2013-01-01
Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE.Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies.The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed.The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behavior and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pollard, D.; Chang, W.; Haran, M.; Applegate, P.; DeConto, R.
2015-11-01
A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.
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Sieck, Mungla; Ibisch, Pierre L; Moloney, Kirk A; Jeltsch, Florian
2011-05-03
Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Togashi, Henrique; Prentice, Colin; Evans, Bradley; Forrester, David; Drake, Paul; Feikema, Paul; Brooksbank, Kim; Eamus, Derek; Taylor, Daniel
2014-05-01
The leaf area to sapwood area ratio (LA:SA) is a key plant trait that links photosynthesis to transpiration. Pipe model theory states that the sapwood cross-sectional area of a stem or branch at any point should scale isometrically with the area of leaves distal to that point. Optimization theory further suggests that LA:SA should decrease towards drier climates. Although acclimation of LA:SA to climate has been reported within species, much less is known about the scaling of this trait with climate among species. We compiled LA:SA measurements from 184 species of Australian evergreen angiosperm trees. The pipe model was broadly confirmed, based on measurements on branches and trunks of trees from one to 27 years old. We found considerable scatter in LA:SA among species. However quantile regression showed strong (0.2
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Togashi, Henrique Furstenau; Prentice, Iain Colin; Evans, Bradley John; Forrester, David Ian; Drake, Paul; Feikema, Paul; Brooksbank, Kim; Eamus, Derek; Taylor, Daniel
2015-03-01
The leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio (LA:SA) is a key plant trait that links photosynthesis to transpiration. The pipe model theory states that the sapwood cross-sectional area of a stem or branch at any point should scale isometrically with the area of leaves distal to that point. Optimization theory further suggests that LA:SA should decrease toward drier climates. Although acclimation of LA:SA to climate has been reported within species, much less is known about the scaling of this trait with climate among species. We compiled LA:SA measurements from 184 species of Australian evergreen angiosperm trees. The pipe model was broadly confirmed, based on measurements on branches and trunks of trees from one to 27 years old. Despite considerable scatter in LA:SA among species, quantile regression showed strong (0.2 < R1 < 0.65) positive relationships between two climatic moisture indices and the lowermost (5%) and uppermost (5-15%) quantiles of log LA:SA, suggesting that moisture availability constrains the envelope of minimum and maximum values of LA:SA typical for any given climate. Interspecific differences in plant hydraulic conductivity are probably responsible for the large scatter of values in the mid-quantile range and may be an important determinant of tree morphology.
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Togashi, Henrique Furstenau; Prentice, Iain Colin; Evans, Bradley John; Forrester, David Ian; Drake, Paul; Feikema, Paul; Brooksbank, Kim; Eamus, Derek; Taylor, Daniel
2015-01-01
The leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio (LA:SA) is a key plant trait that links photosynthesis to transpiration. The pipe model theory states that the sapwood cross-sectional area of a stem or branch at any point should scale isometrically with the area of leaves distal to that point. Optimization theory further suggests that LA:SA should decrease toward drier climates. Although acclimation of LA:SA to climate has been reported within species, much less is known about the scaling of this trait with climate among species. We compiled LA:SA measurements from 184 species of Australian evergreen angiosperm trees. The pipe model was broadly confirmed, based on measurements on branches and trunks of trees from one to 27 years old. Despite considerable scatter in LA:SA among species, quantile regression showed strong (0.2 < R1 < 0.65) positive relationships between two climatic moisture indices and the lowermost (5%) and uppermost (5–15%) quantiles of log LA:SA, suggesting that moisture availability constrains the envelope of minimum and maximum values of LA:SA typical for any given climate. Interspecific differences in plant hydraulic conductivity are probably responsible for the large scatter of values in the mid-quantile range and may be an important determinant of tree morphology. PMID:25859331
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Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada
Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas
2011-01-01
Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061
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Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change
DOE R&D Accomplishments Database
Teller, E.; Hyde, T.; Wood, L.
2002-04-18
We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.
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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) of school classrooms: Case study in Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Aziz, Zalena Abdul; Isa, Mohd Hafizal Mohd
2017-10-01
Thermal Comfort is one of the key criteria for occupants' comfort and productivity in a building. In schools, it is vital for a conduciveness for teaching and learning environment. Thermal comfort is dependent on air temperature, humidity, radiation, internal lighting, air movement, activities, clothing and climatic change and is part of the Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) components which have has significant effects on occupants. The main concern over energy and running cost has meant that most public schools in Malaysia are designed for natural ventilation and not air-conditioning. The building envelope plays a significant role in reducing the radiant heat and keeps the interior cooler than the outdoor temperature for acceptable thermal comfort level. The requirement of Industrial Building System (IBS) as the envelope system for school building in Malaysia could affect the role of envelope as a climate moderator. This paper is based on a research conducted on two schools in Malaysia of varied construction materials as the building envelopes to ascertain the thermal comfort level of the classrooms. Elements of IEQ such as air temperature, air movement, daylighting and noise level were taken of various classrooms to fulfill the required objectives of determining the level of quality. The data collected and analysed from the study shows that in terms of air temperature which range from 28°C to 34.5°C, the schools do not achieve the recommended comfort level for tropical climate. As for daylighting element, results also show that some classrooms suffered with too much glare whilst others had insufficient daylighting. The findings also show the unsatisfactory level of air movement in the classrooms as well as an unacceptable noise level exceeding the allowable threshold. This research also concluded that the use of materials and orientation in the school design are the major determinant factors towards good IEQ levels in school buildings.
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Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.
2018-01-01
Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.
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Carrier-envelope phase dynamics and noise analysis in octave-spanning Ti:sapphire lasers.
Matos, Lia; Mücke, Oliver D; Chen, Jian; Kärtner, Franz X
2006-03-20
We investigate the carrier-envelope phase dynamics of octave-spanning Ti:sapphire lasers and perform a complete noise analysis of the carrier-envelope phase stabilization. We model the effect of the laser dynamics on the residual carrier-envelope phase noise by deriving a transfer function representation of the octave-spanning frequency comb. The modelled phase noise and the experimental results show excellent agreement. This greatly enhances our capability of predicting the dependence of the residual carrier-envelope phase noise on the feedback loop filter, the carrier-envelope frequency control mechanism and the pump laser used.
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Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth.
Nogués-Bravo, David; Rodríguez, Jesús; Hortal, Joaquín; Batra, Persaram; Araújo, Miguel B
2008-04-01
Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present]), surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP). The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses-climatic and anthropogenic-has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth-human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.
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Pellatt, Marlow G; Goring, Simon J; Bodtker, Karin M; Cannon, Alex J
2012-04-01
Under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA), Garry oak (Quercus garryana) ecosystems are listed as "at-risk" and act as an umbrella for over one hundred species that are endangered to some degree. Understanding Garry oak responses to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to protected area managers is essential to effectively manage existing protected area networks and to guide the selection of temporally connected migration corridors, additional protected areas, and to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. We present Garry oak distribution scenarios using two random forest models calibrated with down-scaled bioclimatic data for British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon based on 1961-1990 climate normals. The suitability models are calibrated using either both precipitation and temperature variables or using only temperature variables. We compare suitability predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and present CGCM2 model results under two emissions scenarios. For each GCM and emissions scenario we apply the two Garry oak suitability models and use the suitability models to determine the extent and temporal connectivity of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat within protected areas from 2010 to 2099. The suitability models indicate that while 164 km(2) of the total protected area network in the region (47,990 km(2)) contains recorded Garry oak presence, 1635 and 1680 km(2) of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat is currently under some form of protection. Of this suitable protected area, only between 6.6 and 7.3% will be "temporally connected" between 2010 and 2099 based on the CGCM2 model. These results highlight the need for public and private protected area organizations to work cooperatively in the development of corridors to maintain temporal connectivity in climatically suitable areas for the future of Garry oak ecosystems.
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Pre-Test Assessment of the Use Envelope of the Normal Force of a Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ulbrich, N.
2016-01-01
The relationship between the aerodynamic lift force generated by a wind tunnel model, the model weight, and the measured normal force of a strain-gage balance is investigated to better understand the expected use envelope of the normal force during a wind tunnel test. First, the fundamental relationship between normal force, model weight, lift curve slope, model reference area, dynamic pressure, and angle of attack is derived. Then, based on this fundamental relationship, the use envelope of a balance is examined for four typical wind tunnel test cases. The first case looks at the use envelope of the normal force during the test of a light wind tunnel model at high subsonic Mach numbers. The second case examines the use envelope of the normal force during the test of a heavy wind tunnel model in an atmospheric low-speed facility. The third case reviews the use envelope of the normal force during the test of a floor-mounted semi-span model. The fourth case discusses the normal force characteristics during the test of a rotated full-span model. The wind tunnel model's lift-to-weight ratio is introduced as a new parameter that may be used for a quick pre-test assessment of the use envelope of the normal force of a balance. The parameter is derived as a function of the lift coefficient, the dimensionless dynamic pressure, and the dimensionless model weight. Lower and upper bounds of the use envelope of a balance are defined using the model's lift-to-weight ratio. Finally, data from a pressurized wind tunnel is used to illustrate both application and interpretation of the model's lift-to-weight ratio.
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Chardon, Nathalie I.; Cornwell, William K.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Ackerly, David D.
2015-01-01
With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid-latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low-elevation stands occupy north-facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high-elevation stands grow on more south-facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low-lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.
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Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio
2012-01-01
The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species' ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model's output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.
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Longo, S; Hospido, A; Lema, J M; Mauricio-Iglesias, M
2018-05-10
This article examines the potential benefits of using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for conducting energy-efficiency assessment of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). WWTPs are characteristically heterogeneous (in size, technology, climate, function …) which limits the correct application of DEA. This paper proposes and describes the Robust Energy Efficiency DEA (REED) in its various stages, a systematic state-of-the-art methodology aimed at including exogenous variables in nonparametric frontier models and especially designed for WWTP operation. In particular, the methodology systematizes the modelling process by presenting an integrated framework for selecting the correct variables and appropriate models, possibly tackling the effect of exogenous factors. As a result, the application of REED improves the quality of the efficiency estimates and hence the significance of benchmarking. For the reader's convenience, this article is presented as a step-by-step guideline to guide the user in the determination of WWTPs energy efficiency from beginning to end. The application and benefits of the developed methodology are demonstrated by a case study related to the comparison of the energy efficiency of a set of 399 WWTPs operating in different countries and under heterogeneous environmental conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Macpherson, Alexander J; Principe, Peter P; Shao, Yang
2013-04-15
Researchers are increasingly using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the efficiency of environmental policies and resource allocations. An assumption of the basic DEA model is that decisionmakers operate within homogeneous environments. But, this assumption is not valid when environmental performance is influenced by variables beyond managerial control. Understanding the influence of these variables is important to distinguish between characterizing environmental conditions and identifying opportunities to improve environmental performance. While environmental assessments often focus on characterizing conditions, the point of using DEA is to identify opportunities to improve environmental performance and thereby prevent (or rectify) an inefficient allocation of resources. We examine the role of exogenous variables such as climate, hydrology, and topography in producing environmental impacts such as deposition, runoff, invasive species, and forest fragmentation within the United States Mid-Atlantic region. We apply a four-stage procedure to adjust environmental impacts in a DEA model that seeks to minimize environmental impacts while obtaining given levels of socioeconomic outcomes. The approach creates a performance index that bundles multiple indicators while adjusting for variables that are outside management control, offering numerous advantages for environmental assessment. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Fordham, Damien A; Watts, Michael J; Delean, Steven; Brook, Brook W; Heard, Lee M B; Bull, C M
2012-09-01
The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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The structure of common-envelope remnants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hall, Philip D.
2015-05-01
We investigate the structure and evolution of the remnants of common-envelope evolution in binary star systems. In a common-envelope phase, two stars become engulfed in a gaseous envelope and, under the influence of drag forces, spiral to smaller separations. They may merge to form a single star or the envelope may be ejected to leave the stars in a shorter period orbit. This process explains the short orbital periods of many observed binary systems, such as cataclysmic variables and low-mass X-ray binary systems. Despite the importance of these systems, and of common-envelope evolution to their formation, it remains poorly understood. Specifically, we are unable to confidently predict the outcome of a common-envelope phase from the properties at its onset. After presenting a review of work on stellar evolution, binary systems, common-envelope evolution and the computer programs used, we describe the results of three computational projects on common-envelope evolution. Our work specifically relates to the methods and prescriptions which are used for predicting the outcome. We use the Cambridge stellar-evolution code STARS to produce detailed models of the structure and evolution of remnants of common-envelope evolution. We compare different assumptions about the uncertain end-of-common envelope structure and envelope mass of remnants which successfully eject their common envelopes. In the first project, we use detailed remnant models to investigate whether planetary nebulae are predicted after common-envelope phases initiated by low-mass red giants. We focus on the requirement that a remnant evolves rapidly enough to photoionize the nebula and compare the predictions for different ideas about the structure at the end of a common-envelope phase. We find that planetary nebulae are possible for some prescriptions for the end-of-common envelope structure. In our second contribution, we compute a large set of single-star models and fit new formulae to the core radii of evolved stars. These formulae can be used to better compute the outcome of common-envelope evolution with rapid evolution codes. We find that the new formulae are necessary for accurate predictions of the properties of post-common envelope systems. Finally, we use detailed remnant models of massive stars to investigate whether hydrogen may be retained after a common-envelope phase to the point of core-collapse and so be observable in supernovae. We find that this is possible and thus common-envelope evolution may contribute to the formation of Type IIb supernovae.
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Full waveform inversion using envelope-based global correlation norm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oh, Ju-Won; Alkhalifah, Tariq
2018-05-01
To increase the feasibility of full waveform inversion on real data, we suggest a new objective function, which is defined as the global correlation of the envelopes of modelled and observed data. The envelope-based global correlation norm has the advantage of the envelope inversion that generates artificial low-frequency information, which provides the possibility to recover long-wavelength structure in an early stage. In addition, the envelope-based global correlation norm maintains the advantage of the global correlation norm, which reduces the sensitivity of the misfit to amplitude errors so that the performance of inversion on real data can be enhanced when the exact source wavelet is not available and more complex physics are ignored. Through the synthetic example for 2-D SEG/EAGE overthrust model with inaccurate source wavelet, we compare the performance of four different approaches, which are the least-squares waveform inversion, least-squares envelope inversion, global correlation norm and envelope-based global correlation norm. Finally, we apply the envelope-based global correlation norm on the 3-D Ocean Bottom Cable (OBC) data from the North Sea. The envelope-based global correlation norm captures the strong reflections from the high-velocity caprock and generates artificial low-frequency reflection energy that helps us recover long-wavelength structure of the model domain in the early stages. From this long-wavelength model, the conventional global correlation norm is sequentially applied to invert for higher-resolution features of the model.
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Introduction to Building Systems Performance: Houses That Work II. Revised February 2005
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Not Available
2005-03-01
Buildings should be suited to their environments. Design and construction must be responsive to varying seismic risks, wind loads, and snow loads, as well as soil conditions, frost depth, orientation, and solar radiation. In addition, building envelopes and mechanical systems should be designed for a specific hygro-thermal regions, rain exposure, and interior climate. The Building Science Consortium (BSC) design recommendations are based on the hygro-thermal regions with reference to the annual rainfall. Local climate must be addressed if it differs significantly from the climate described for a particular design.
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Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan
2014-01-01
Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.
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Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan
2014-01-01
Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719
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Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C
2017-12-01
Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.
Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki
2015-07-07
The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.
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Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum
Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki
2015-01-01
The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880
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Ellis, Christopher J; Yahr, Rebecca; Belinchón, Rocío; Coppins, Brian J
2014-07-01
The biodiversity response to climate change is a major focus in conservation research and policy. Predictive models that are used to project the impact of climate change scenarios - such as bioclimatic envelope models - are widely applied and have come under severe scrutiny. Criticisms of such models have focussed on at least two problems. First, there is an assumption that climate is the primary driver of observed species distributions ('climatic equilibrium'), when other biogeographical controls are often reliably established. Second, a species' sensitivity to macroclimate may become less relevant when impacts are down-scaled to a local level, incorporating a modifying effect of species interactions structuring communities. This article examines the role of different drivers (climate, pollution and landscape habitat structure) in explaining spatial community variation for a widely applied bioindicator group: lichen epiphytes. To provide an analysis free of 'legacy effects' (e.g. formerly higher pollution loads), the study focused on hazel stems as a relatively short-lived and recently colonized substratum. For communities during the present day, climate is shown to interact with stem size/age as the most likely explanation of community composition, thus coupling a macroclimatic and community-scale effect. The position of present-day communities was projected into ordination space for eight sites in England and compared to the position of historical epiphyte communities from the same sites, reconstructed using preserved hazel wattles dating mainly to the 16th Century. This comparison of community structure for the late- to post-Mediaeval period, with the post-Industrial period, demonstrated a consistent shift among independent sites towards warmer and drier conditions, concurrent with the end of the Little Ice Age. Long-term temporal sensitivity of epiphyte communities to climate variation thus complements spatial community patterns. If more widely applied, preserved lichen epiphytes have potential to generate new baseline conditions of environment and biodiversity for preindustrial lowland Europe. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Glassgold, Alfred E.; Huggins, Patrick J.
1987-01-01
The study of the outer envelopes of cool evolved stars has become an active area of research. The physical properties of CS envelopes are presented. Observations of many wavelengths bands are relevant. A summary of observations and a discussion of theoretical considerations concerning the chemistry are summarized. Recent theoretical considerations show that the thermal equilibrium model is of limited use for understanding the chemistry of the outer CS envelopes. The theoretical modeling of the chemistry of CS envelopes provides a quantitive test of chemical concepts which have a broader interest than the envelopes themselves.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kini, Pradeep G.; Garg, Naresh Kumar; Kamath, Kiran
2017-07-01
India’s commercial building sector is witnessing robust growth. India continues to be a key growth market among global corporates and this is reflective in the steady growth in demand for prime office space. A recent trend that has been noted is the increase in demand for office spaces not just in major cities but also in smaller tier II and Tier III cities. Growth in the commercial building sector projects a rising trend of energy intensive mechanical systems in office buildings in India. The air conditioning market in India is growing at 25% annually. This is due to the ever increasing demand to maintain thermal comfort in tropical regions. Air conditioning is one of the most energy intensive technologies which are used in buildings. As a result India is witnessing significant spike in energy demand and further widening the demand supply gap. Challenge in India is to identify passive measures in building envelope design in office buildings to reduce the cooling loads and conserve energy. This paper investigates the overall heat gain through building envelope components and natural ventilation in warm and humid climate region through experimental and simulation methods towards improved thermal environmental performance.
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Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio
2012-01-01
The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species’ ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model’s output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change. PMID:23272115
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua
2018-01-01
Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance level, but their temporal variation could be well modeled by using the fourth-order polynomial. Overall, this study further emphasized the importance of using multiple GCMs for studying climate change impacts on hydrology. Furthermore, the temporal variation of uncertainty sourced from GCMs should be given more attention.
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Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park
Lutz, James A.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Franklin, Jerry F.
2010-01-01
Aim (1) To calculate annual potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET) and climatic water deficit (Deficit) with high spatial resolution; (2) to describe distributions for 17 tree species over a 2300-m elevation gradient in a 3000-km2 landscape relative to AET and Deficit; (3) to examine changes in AET and Deficit between past (c. 1700), present (1971–2000) and future (2020–49) climatological means derived from proxies, observations and projections; and (4) to infer how the magnitude of changing Deficit may contribute to changes in forest structure and composition.Location Yosemite National Park, California, USA.Methods We calculated the water balance within Yosemite National Park using a modified Thornthwaite-type method and correlated AET and Deficit with tree species distribution. We used input data sets with different spatial resolutions parameterized for variation in latitude, precipitation, temperature, soil water-holding capacity, slope and aspect. We used climate proxies and climate projections to model AET and Deficit for past and future climate. We compared the modelled future water balance in Yosemite with current species water-balance ranges in North America.Results We calculated species climatic envelopes over broad ranges of environmental gradients – a range of 310 mm for soil water-holding capacity, 48.3°C for mean monthly temperature (January minima to July maxima), and 918 mm yr−1 for annual precipitation. Tree species means were differentiated by AET and Deficit, and at higher levels of Deficit, species means were increasingly differentiated. Modelled Deficit for all species increased by a mean of 5% between past (c. 1700) and present (1971–2000). Projected increases in Deficit between present and future (2020–49) were 23% across all plots.Main conclusions Modelled changes in Deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana. Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.
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Energy performance of building fabric - Comparing two types of vernacular residential houses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Draganova, Vanya Y.; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Tsuzuki, Kazuyo
2017-10-01
Notwithstanding apparent differences, Japanese and Bulgarian traditional residential houses share a lot of common features - building materials, building techniques, even layout design. Despite the similarities, these two types of houses have not been compared so far. The study initiates such comparison. The focus is on houses in areas with similar climate in both countries. Current legislation requirements are compared, as well as the criteria for thermal comfort of people. Achieving high energy performance results from a dynamic system of 4 main key factors - thermal comfort range, heating/cooling source, building envelope and climatic conditions. A change in any single one of them can affect the final energy performance. However, it can be expected that a combination of changes in more than one factor usually occurs. The aim of this study is to evaluate the correlation between the thermal performance of building envelope designed under current regulations and a traditional one, having in mind the different thermal comfort range in the two countries. A sample building model is calculated in Scenario 1 - Japanese traditional building fabric, Scenario 2 - Bulgarian traditional building fabric and Scenario 3 - meeting the requirements of the more demanding current regulations. The energy modelling is conducted using EnergyPlus through OpenStudio cross-platform of software tools. The 3D geometry for the simulation is created using OpenStudio SketchUp Plug-in. Equal number of inhabitants, electricity consumption and natural ventilation is assumed. The results show that overall low energy consumption can be achieved using traditional building fabric as well, when paired with a wider thermal comfort range. Under these conditions traditional building design is still viable today. This knowledge can reestablish the use of traditional building fabric in contemporary design, stimulate preservation of local culture, building traditions and community identity.
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McElwain, Jennifer C
2018-04-29
Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO 2 ) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO 2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO 2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO 2 , contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.
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Hygrothermal analysis of surface layers of historical masonry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kočí, Václav; Maděra, Jiří; Keppert, Martin; Černý, Robert
2017-11-01
The paper deals with the hygrothermal analysis of surface layers of historical masonry. Solid brick provided with a traditional and two modified lime-based plasters is studied. The heat and moisture transport in the envelope is induced by an exposure of the wall from the exterior side to dynamic climatic conditions of Olomouc, Czech Republic. The transport processes are described using diffusion type of mathematical model based on experimentally determined material properties. The computational results indicate that hygric transport and accumulation properties of exterior plasters affect the hygrothermal performance of the underlying solid brick in a very significant way, being able to regulate the amount of transported moisture. The modified lime plasters are not found generally superior to the traditional lime plasters in that respect. Therefore, their suitability for historical masonry should be assessed case by case, with a particular attention to the climatic conditions and to the properties of the load bearing structure.
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Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.
Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M
2017-06-01
Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Lieske, David J; Lloyd, Vett K
2018-03-01
Ixodes scapularis, a known vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bbss), is undergoing range expansion in many parts of Canada. The province of New Brunswick, which borders jurisdictions with established populations of I. scapularis, constitutes a range expansion zone for this species. To better understand the current and potential future distribution of this tick under climate change projections, this study applied occupancy modelling to distributional records of adult ticks that successfully overwintered, obtained through passive surveillance. This study indicates that I. scapularis occurs throughout the southern-most portion of the province, in close proximity to coastlines and major waterways. Milder winter conditions, as indicated by the number of degree days <0 °C, was determined to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence, as was, to a lesser degree, rising levels of annual precipitation, leading to a final model with a predictive accuracy of 0.845 (range: 0.828-0.893). Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections predict that a significant proportion of the province (roughly a quarter to a third) will be highly suitable for I. scapularis by the 2080s. Comparison with cases of canine infection show good spatial agreement with baseline model predictions, but the presence of canine Borrelia infections beyond the climate envelope, defined by the highest probabilities of tick occurrence, suggest the presence of Bbss-carrying ticks distributed by long-range dispersal events. This research demonstrates that predictive statistical modelling of multi-year surveillance information is an efficient way to identify areas where I. scapularis is most likely to occur, and can be used to guide subsequent active sampling efforts in order to better understand fine scale species distributional patterns. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.
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2011-01-01
Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas. PMID:21539736
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Butler, T.; Curtis, O.; Stephenson, R.
As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with TaC Studios, an Atlanta-based architecture firm specializing in residential and light commercial design, on the construction of a new test home in Atlanta, GA, in the mixed humid climate. This home serves as a residence and home office for the firm's owners, as well as a demonstration of their design approach to potential and current clients. Southface believes the home demonstrates current best practices for the mixed-humid climate, including a building envelope featuring advanced air sealing details and low density spray foam insulation, glazing that exceeds ENERGY STARmore » requirements, and a high performance heating and cooling system. Construction quality and execution was a high priority for TaC Studios and was ensured by a third party review process. Post-construction testing showed that the project met stated goals for envelope performance, an air infiltration rate of 2.15 ACH50. The homeowners wished to further validate whole house energy savings through the project's involvement with Building America and this long-term monitoring effort. As a Building America test home, this home was evaluated to detail whole house energy use, end use loads, and the efficiency and operation of the ground source heat pump and associated systems. Given that the home includes many non-typical end use loads including a home office, pool, landscape water feature, and other luxury features not accounted for in Building America modeling tools, these end uses were separately monitored to determine their impact on overall energy consumption.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Butler, T.; Curtis, O.; Stephenson, R.
As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with TaC Studios, an Atlanta-based architecture firm specializing in residential and light commercial design, on the construction of a new test home in Atlanta, GA in the mixed humid climate. This home serves as a residence and home office for the firm's owners, as well as a demonstration of their design approach topotential and current clients. Southface believes the home demonstrates current best practices for the mixed-humid climate, including a building envelope featuring advanced air sealing details and low density spray foam insulation, glazing that exceeds ENERGY STAR requirements,more » and a high performance heating and cooling system. Construction quality and execution was a high priority for TaCStudios and was ensured by a third party review process. Post-construction testing showed that the project met stated goals for envelope performance, an air infiltration rate of 2.15 ACH50. The homeowners wished to further validate whole house energy savings through the project's involvement with Building America and this long-term monitoring effort. As a Building America test home, this homewas evaluated to detail whole house energy use, end use loads, and the efficiency and operation of the ground source heat pump and associated systems. Given that the home includes many non-typical end use loads including a home office, pool, landscape water feature, and other luxury features not accounted for in Building America modeling tools, these end uses were separately monitored todetermine their impact on overall energy consumption.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Not Available
2004-04-01
Buildings should be suited to their environments. Design and construction must be responsive to varying seismic risks, wind loads, and snow loads, as well as soil conditions, frost depth, orientation, and solar radiation. In addition, building envelopes and mechanical systems should be designed for a specific hygro-thermal regions, rain exposure, and interior climate. The Building Science Consortium (BSC) design recommendations are based on the hygro-thermal regions with reference to the annual rainfall. Local climate must be addressed if it differs significantly from the climate described for a particular design.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas
2017-04-01
Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).
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Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD
Büntgen, Ulf; Raible, Christoph C.; Frank, David; Helama, Samuli; Cunningham, Laura; Hofer, Dominik; Nievergelt, Daniel; Verstege, Anne; Timonen, Mauri; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Esper, Jan
2011-01-01
Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years. PMID:21966436
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Green supplier selection: a new genetic/immune strategy with industrial application
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Amit; Jain, Vipul; Kumar, Sameer; Chandra, Charu
2016-10-01
With the onset of the 'climate change movement', organisations are striving to include environmental criteria into the supplier selection process. This article hybridises a Green Data Envelopment Analysis (GDEA)-based approach with a new Genetic/Immune Strategy for Data Envelopment Analysis (GIS-DEA). A GIS-DEA approach provides a different view to solving multi-criteria decision making problems using data envelopment analysis (DEA) by considering DEA as a multi-objective optimisation problem with efficiency as one objective and proximity of solution to decision makers' preferences as the other objective. The hybrid approach called GIS-GDEA is applied here to a well-known automobile spare parts manufacturer in India and the results presented. User validation developed based on specific set of criteria suggests that the supplier selection process with GIS-GDEA is more practical than other approaches in a current industrial scenario with multiple decision makers.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Canadian School Trustees Association, Ottawa (Ontario).
This booklet provides the basic information for starting an energy conservation program. Guidelines for involving all school personnel and promoting energy conservation throughout the entire Canadian education system are provided. Outlined in the booklet are methods for climate proofing the building envelope and making the system air tight,…
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Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.
Singh, Kuntal; McClean, Colin J; Büker, Patrick; Hartley, Sue E; Hill, Jane K
2017-09-01
Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration ( PER ), maximum and minimum temperatures ( T max and T min ), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased precipitation. Hence our CEM and BRT models agree on the locations most at risk, but there is less consensus about the degree of risk at these locations. Our results help to identify locations where livelihoods of low-income farmers and regional food security may be threatened in the next few decades by climate changes. The use of more drought-resilient rice varieties and better irrigation infrastructure in these regions may help to reduce these impacts and reduce the vulnerability of farmers dependent on rainfed cropping.
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The Molecular Envelope around the Red Supergiant VY CMa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Muller, S.; Dinh-V-Trung; Lim, J.; Hirano, N.; Muthu, C.; Kwok, S.
2007-02-01
We present millimeter interferometric observations of the molecular envelope around the red supergiant VY CMa with the Submillimeter Array (SMA). The high angular resolution (<2") allows us to derive the structure of the envelope as observed in the 1.3 mm continuum, 12CO(2-1), 13CO(2-1), and SO(65-54) lines emission. The circumstellar envelope is resolved into three components: (1) a dense, compact, and dusty central component, embedded in (2) a more diffuse and extended envelope, and (3) a high-velocity component. We construct a simple model, consisting of a spherically symmetric slowly expanding envelope and bipolar outflows with a wide opening angle (~120°) viewed close to the line of sight (i=15deg). Our model can explain the main features of the SMA data and previous single-dish CO multiline observations. An episode of enhanced mass loss along the bipolar direction is inferred from our modeling. The SMA data provide a better understanding of the complicated morphology seen in the optical/IR high-resolution observations.
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The Importance of Biologically Relevant Microclimates in Habitat Suitability Assessments
Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M. Denise
2014-01-01
Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30°C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10°C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive. PMID:25115894
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The importance of biologically relevant microclimates in habitat suitability assessments.
Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M Denise
2014-01-01
Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30 °C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10 °C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive.
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Wang, Le; Devore, Sasha; Delgutte, Bertrand
2013-01-01
Human listeners are sensitive to interaural time differences (ITDs) in the envelopes of sounds, which can serve as a cue for sound localization. Many high-frequency neurons in the mammalian inferior colliculus (IC) are sensitive to envelope-ITDs of sinusoidally amplitude-modulated (SAM) sounds. Typically, envelope-ITD-sensitive IC neurons exhibit either peak-type sensitivity, discharging maximally at the same delay across frequencies, or trough-type sensitivity, discharging minimally at the same delay across frequencies, consistent with responses observed at the primary site of binaural interaction in the medial and lateral superior olives (MSO and LSO), respectively. However, some high-frequency IC neurons exhibit dual types of envelope-ITD sensitivity in their responses to SAM tones, that is, they exhibit peak-type sensitivity at some modulation frequencies and trough-type sensitivity at other frequencies. Here we show that high-frequency IC neurons in the unanesthetized rabbit can also exhibit dual types of envelope-ITD sensitivity in their responses to SAM noise. Such complex responses to SAM stimuli could be achieved by convergent inputs from MSO and LSO onto single IC neurons. We test this hypothesis by implementing a physiologically explicit, computational model of the binaural pathway. Specifically, we examined envelope-ITD sensitivity of a simple model IC neuron that receives convergent inputs from MSO and LSO model neurons. We show that dual envelope-ITD sensitivity emerges in the IC when convergent MSO and LSO inputs are differentially tuned for modulation frequency. PMID:24155013
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Emerging Cyber Infrastructure for NASA's Large-Scale Climate Data Analytics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duffy, D.; Spear, C.; Bowen, M. K.; Thompson, J. H.; Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Pierce, D.
2016-12-01
The resolution of NASA climate and weather simulations have grown dramatically over the past few years with the highest-fidelity models reaching down to 1.5 KM global resolutions. With each doubling of the resolution, the resulting data sets grow by a factor of eight in size. As the climate and weather models push the envelope even further, a new infrastructure to store data and provide large-scale data analytics is necessary. The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) has deployed the Data Analytics Storage Service (DASS) that combines scalable storage with the ability to perform in-situ analytics. Within this system, large, commonly used data sets are stored in a POSIX file system (write once/read many); examples of data stored include Landsat, MERRA2, observing system simulation experiments, and high-resolution downscaled reanalysis. The total size of this repository is on the order of 15 petabytes of storage. In addition to the POSIX file system, the NCCS has deployed file system connectors to enable emerging analytics built on top of the Hadoop File System (HDFS) to run on the same storage servers within the DASS. Coupled with a custom spatiotemporal indexing approach, users can now run emerging analytical operations built on MapReduce and Spark on the same data files stored within the POSIX file system without having to make additional copies. This presentation will discuss the architecture of this system and present benchmark performance measurements from traditional TeraSort and Wordcount to large-scale climate analytical operations on NetCDF data.
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Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate
Moran, Jonathan A.; Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin
2013-01-01
Background and Aims Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. Methods A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, ‘wet’ syndrome and ‘dry’ syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Key Results Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and ‘wet’ syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and‘dry’ syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. Conclusions The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy. PMID:23975653
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Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate.
Moran, Jonathan A; Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin
2013-11-01
Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, 'wet' syndrome and 'dry' syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and 'wet' syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and'dry' syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy.
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Jackson, Michelle M.; Gergel, Sarah E.; Martin, Kathy
2015-01-01
North America’s coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room “at the top” to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP), a threatened, endemic alpine bird. Using a Random Forest model and a unique dataset consisting of citizen science observations combined with field surveys, we predict the distribution and configuration of potential suitable summer habitat for VIWTP under baseline and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) climates using three general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios. VIWTP summer habitat is predicted to decline by an average of 25%, 44%, and 56% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under the low greenhouse gas scenario and 27%, 59%, and 74% under the high scenario. Habitat patches are predicted to become fragmented, with a 52–79% reduction in mean patch size. The average elevation of suitable habitat patches is expected to increase, reflecting a loss of patches at lower elevations. Thus ptarmigan are in danger of being “squeezed off the mountain”, as their remaining suitable habitat will be increasingly confined to mountaintops in the center of the island. The extent to which ptarmigan will be able to persist in increasingly fragmented habitat is unclear. Much will depend on their ability to move throughout a more heterogeneous landscape, utilize smaller breeding areas, and survive increasingly variable climate extremes. Our results emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and protection for high elevation specialist species, and suggest that White-tailed Ptarmigan should be considered an indicator species for alpine ecosystems in the face of climate change. PMID:26529306
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Climate sensitivity of Tibetan Plateau glaciers - past and future implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heyman, Jakob; Hubbard, Alun; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Harbor, Jonathan M.
2013-04-01
The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensively glaciated, non-Polar regions of the world, and its mountain glaciers are the primary source of melt water for several of the largest Asian rivers. During glacial cycles, Tibetan Plateau glaciers advanced and retreated multiple times, but remained restricted to the highest mountain areas as valley glaciers and ice caps. Because glacier extent is dominantly controlled by climate, the past extent of Tibetan glaciers provide information on regional climate. Here we present a study analyzing the past maximum extents of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau with the output of a 3D glacier model, in an effort to quantify Tibetan Plateau climate. We have mapped present-day glaciers and glacial landforms deposited by formerly more extensive glaciers in eight mountain regions across the Tibetan Plateau, allowing us to define present-day and past maximum glacier outlines. Using a high-resolution (250 m) higher-order glacier model calibrated against present-day glacier extents, we have quantified the climate perturbations required to expand present-day glaciers to their past maximum extents. We find that a modest cooling of at most 6°C for a few thousand years is enough to attain past maximum extents, even with 25-75% precipitation reduction. This evidence for limited cooling indicates that the temperature of the Tibetan Plateau remained relatively stable over Quaternary glacial cycles. Given the significant sensitivity to temperature change, the expectation is perhaps that a future warmer climate might result in intense glacier reduction. We have tested this hypothesis and modeled the future glacier development for the three mountain regions with the largest present-day glacier cover using a projected warming of 2.8 to 6.2°C within 100 years (envelope limits from IPCC). These scenarios result in dramatic glacier reductions, including 24-100% ice volume loss after 100 years and 77-100% ice volume loss after 300 years.
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Hierarchical Processing of Auditory Objects in Humans
Kumar, Sukhbinder; Stephan, Klaas E; Warren, Jason D; Friston, Karl J; Griffiths, Timothy D
2007-01-01
This work examines the computational architecture used by the brain during the analysis of the spectral envelope of sounds, an important acoustic feature for defining auditory objects. Dynamic causal modelling and Bayesian model selection were used to evaluate a family of 16 network models explaining functional magnetic resonance imaging responses in the right temporal lobe during spectral envelope analysis. The models encode different hypotheses about the effective connectivity between Heschl's Gyrus (HG), containing the primary auditory cortex, planum temporale (PT), and superior temporal sulcus (STS), and the modulation of that coupling during spectral envelope analysis. In particular, we aimed to determine whether information processing during spectral envelope analysis takes place in a serial or parallel fashion. The analysis provides strong support for a serial architecture with connections from HG to PT and from PT to STS and an increase of the HG to PT connection during spectral envelope analysis. The work supports a computational model of auditory object processing, based on the abstraction of spectro-temporal “templates” in the PT before further analysis of the abstracted form in anterior temporal lobe areas. PMID:17542641
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Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng; Wen, Zhongming
2016-07-21
Oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) is an important afforestation and ornamental tree species, which is native in eastern Asian. Therefore, a global suitable habitat map for oriental arborvitae is urgently needed for global promotion and cultivation. Here, the potential habitat and climatic requirements of oriental arborvitae at global scale were simulated using herbariums data and 13 thermal-moisture variables as input data for maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The simulation performance of MaxEnt is evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation and a jackknife procedure. Results show that the potential habitat and climate envelop of oriental arborvitae can be successfully simulated by MaxEnt at global scale, with a mean test AUC value of 0.93 and mean training AUC value of 0.95. Thermal factors play more important roles than moisture factors in controlling the distribution boundary of oriental arborvitae's potential ranges. There are about 50 countries suitable for introduction and cultivation of oriental arborvitae with an area of 2.0 × 10(7) km(2), which occupied 13.8% of land area on the earth. This unique study will provide valuable information and insights needed to identify new regions with climatically suitable habitats for cultivation and introduction of oriental arborvitae around the world.
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Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng; Wen, Zhongming
2016-01-01
Oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) is an important afforestation and ornamental tree species, which is native in eastern Asian. Therefore, a global suitable habitat map for oriental arborvitae is urgently needed for global promotion and cultivation. Here, the potential habitat and climatic requirements of oriental arborvitae at global scale were simulated using herbariums data and 13 thermal-moisture variables as input data for maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The simulation performance of MaxEnt is evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation and a jackknife procedure. Results show that the potential habitat and climate envelop of oriental arborvitae can be successfully simulated by MaxEnt at global scale, with a mean test AUC value of 0.93 and mean training AUC value of 0.95. Thermal factors play more important roles than moisture factors in controlling the distribution boundary of oriental arborvitae’s potential ranges. There are about 50 countries suitable for introduction and cultivation of oriental arborvitae with an area of 2.0 × 107 km2, which occupied 13.8% of land area on the earth. This unique study will provide valuable information and insights needed to identify new regions with climatically suitable habitats for cultivation and introduction of oriental arborvitae around the world. PMID:27443221
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Not Available
2014-09-01
As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with TaC Studios, an Atlanta based architecture firm specializing in residential and light commercial design, on the construction of a new test home in Atlanta, GA in the mixed-humid climate. This home serves as a residence and home office for the firm's owners, as well as a demonstration of their design approach to potential and current clients. Southface believes the home demonstrates current best practices for the mixed-humid climate, including a building envelope featuring advanced air sealing details and low density spray foam insulation, glazing that exceeds ENERGY STARmore » requirements, and a high performance heating and cooling system. Construction quality and execution was a high priority for TaC Studios and was ensured by a third party review process. Post construction testing showed that the project met stated goals for envelope performance, an air infiltration rate of 2.15 ACH50. The homeowner's wished to further validate whole house energy savings through the project's involvement with Building America and this long-term monitoring effort. As a Building America test home, this home was evaluated to detail whole house energy use, end use loads, and the efficiency and operation of the ground source heat pump and associated systems. Given that the home includes many non-typical end use loads including a home office, pool, landscape water feature, and other luxury features not accounted for in Building America modeling tools, these end uses were separately monitored to determine their impact on overall energy consumption.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Muller, Sébastien; Dinh-V-Trung; He, Jin-Hua; Lim, Jeremy
2008-09-01
We report high angular resolution observations of the HCN (3-2) line emission in the circumstellar envelope of the O-rich star W Hya with the Submillimeter Array. The proximity of this star allows us to image its molecular envelope with a spatial resolution of just ~40 AU, corresponding to about 10 times the stellar diameter. We resolve the HCN (3-2) emission and find that it is centrally peaked and has a roughly spherically symmetrical distribution. This shows that HCN is formed in the innermost region of the envelope (within ~10 stellar radii), which is consistent with predictions from pulsation-driven shock chemistry models, and rules out the scenario in which HCN forms through photochemical reactions in the outer envelope. Our model suggests that the envelope decreases steeply in temperature and increases smoothly in velocity with radius, inconsistent with the standard model for mass-loss driven by radiative pressure on dust grains. We detect a velocity gradient of ~5 km s-1 in the northwest-southeast direction over the central 40 AU. This velocity gradient is reminiscent of that seen in OH maser lines, and could be caused by the rotation of the envelope or by a weak bipolar outflow.
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A Joint Method of Envelope Inversion Combined with Hybrid-domain Full Waveform Inversion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
CUI, C.; Hou, W.
2017-12-01
Full waveform inversion (FWI) aims to construct high-precision subsurface models by fully using the information in seismic records, including amplitude, travel time, phase and so on. However, high non-linearity and the absence of low frequency information in seismic data lead to the well-known cycle skipping problem and make inversion easily fall into local minima. In addition, those 3D inversion methods that are based on acoustic approximation ignore the elastic effects in real seismic field, and make inversion harder. As a result, the accuracy of final inversion results highly relies on the quality of initial model. In order to improve stability and quality of inversion results, multi-scale inversion that reconstructs subsurface model from low to high frequency are applied. But, the absence of very low frequencies (< 3Hz) in field data is still bottleneck in the FWI. By extracting ultra low-frequency data from field data, envelope inversion is able to recover low wavenumber model with a demodulation operator (envelope operator), though the low frequency data does not really exist in field data. To improve the efficiency and viability of the inversion, in this study, we proposed a joint method of envelope inversion combined with hybrid-domain FWI. First, we developed 3D elastic envelope inversion, and the misfit function and the corresponding gradient operator were derived. Then we performed hybrid-domain FWI with envelope inversion result as initial model which provides low wavenumber component of model. Here, forward modeling is implemented in the time domain and inversion in the frequency domain. To accelerate the inversion, we adopt CPU/GPU heterogeneous computing techniques. There were two levels of parallelism. In the first level, the inversion tasks are decomposed and assigned to each computation node by shot number. In the second level, GPU multithreaded programming is used for the computation tasks in each node, including forward modeling, envelope extraction, DFT (discrete Fourier transform) calculation and gradients calculation. Numerical tests demonstrated that the combined envelope inversion + hybrid-domain FWI could obtain much faithful and accurate result than conventional hybrid-domain FWI. The CPU/GPU heterogeneous parallel computation could improve the performance speed.
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Development of building energy asset rating using stock modelling in the USA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, Na; Goel, Supriya; Makhmalbaf, Atefe
2016-01-29
The US Building Energy Asset Score helps building stakeholders quickly gain insight into the efficiency of building systems (envelope, electrical and mechanical systems). A robust, easy-to-understand 10-point scoring system was developed to facilitate an unbiased comparison of similar building types across the country. The Asset Score does not rely on a database or specific building baselines to establish a rating. Rather, distributions of energy use intensity (EUI) for various building use types were constructed using Latin hypercube sampling and converted to a series of stepped linear scales to score buildings. A score is calculated based on the modelled source EUImore » after adjusting for climate. A web-based scoring tool, which incorporates an analytical engine and a simulation engine, was developed to standardize energy modelling and reduce implementation cost. This paper discusses the methodology used to perform several hundred thousand building simulation runs and develop the scoring scales.« less
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Full-envelope aerodynamic modeling of the Harrier aircraft
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mcnally, B. David
1986-01-01
A project to identify a full-envelope model of the YAV-8B Harrier using flight-test and parameter identification techniques is described. As part of the research in advanced control and display concepts for V/STOL aircraft, a full-envelope aerodynamic model of the Harrier is identified, using mathematical model structures and parameter identification methods. A global-polynomial model structure is also used as a basis for the identification of the YAV-8B aerodynamic model. State estimation methods are used to ensure flight data consistency prior to parameter identification.Equation-error methods are used to identify model parameters. A fixed-base simulator is used extensively to develop flight test procedures and to validate parameter identification software. Using simple flight maneuvers, a simulated data set was created covering the YAV-8B flight envelope from about 0.3 to 0.7 Mach and about -5 to 15 deg angle of attack. A singular value decomposition implementation of the equation-error approach produced good parameter estimates based on this simulated data set.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shi, Yang; Li, Kunpeng; Tang, Peiping
2015-02-15
Baculoviruses produce two virion phenotypes, occlusion-derived virion (ODV) and budded virion (BV). ODV envelopment occurs in the nucleus. Morphogenesis of the ODV has been studied extensively; however, the mechanisms underlying microvesicle formation and ODV envelopment in nuclei remain unclear. In this study, we used electron tomography (ET) together with the conventional electron microscopy to study the envelopment of Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV) ODV. Our results demonstrate that not only the inner but also the outer nuclear membrane can invaginate and vesiculate into microvesicles and that intranuclear microvesicles are the direct source of the ODV membrane. Five main events inmore » the ODV envelopment process are summarized, from which we propose a model to explain this process. - Highlights: • Both the inner and outer nuclear membranes could invaginate. • Both the inner and outer nuclear membranes could vesiculate into microvesicles. • Five main events in the ODV envelopment process are summarized. • A model is proposed to explain this ODV envelopment.« less
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Multispectral radiation envelope characteristics of aerial infrared targets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kou, Tian; Zhou, Zhongliang; Liu, Hongqiang; Yang, Yuanzhi; Lu, Chunguang
2018-07-01
Multispectral detection signals are relatively stable and complementary to single spectral detection signals with deficiencies of severe scintillation and poor anti-interference. To take advantage of multispectral radiation characteristics in the application of infrared target detection, the concept of a multispectral radiation envelope is proposed. To build the multispectral radiation envelope model, the temperature distribution of an aerial infrared target is calculated first. By considering the coupling heat transfer process, the heat balance equation is built by using the node network, and the convective heat transfer laws as a function of target speed are uncovered. Then, the tail flame temperature distribution model is built and the temperature distributions at different horizontal distances are calculated. Second, to obtain the optimal detection angles, envelope models of reflected background multispectral radiation and target multispectral radiation are built. Finally, the envelope characteristics of the aerial target multispectral radiation are analyzed in different wavebands in detail. The results we obtained reflect Wien's displacement law and prove the effectiveness and reasonableness of the envelope model, and also indicate that the major difference between multispectral wavebands is greatly influenced by the target speed. Moreover, optimal detection angles are obtained by numerical simulation, and these are very important for accurate and fast target detection, attack decision-making and developing multispectral detection platforms.
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Shankar, P Mohana
2003-03-01
A compound probability density function (pdf) is presented to describe the envelope of the backscattered echo from tissue. This pdf allows local and global variation in scattering cross sections in tissue. The ultrasonic backscattering cross sections are assumed to be gamma distributed. The gamma distribution also is used to model the randomness in the average cross sections. This gamma-gamma model results in the compound scattering pdf for the envelope. The relationship of this compound pdf to the Rayleigh, K, and Nakagami distributions is explored through an analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio of the envelopes and random number simulations. The three parameter compound pdf appears to be flexible enough to represent envelope statistics giving rise to Rayleigh, K, and Nakagami distributions.
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The Evaporation Valley in the Kepler Planets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Owen, James E.; Wu, Yanqin
2017-09-01
A new piece of evidence supporting the photoevaporation-driven evolution model for low-mass, close-in exoplanets was recently presented by the California-Kepler Survey. The radius distribution of the Kepler planets is shown to be bimodal, with a “valley” separating two peaks at 1.3 and 2.6 R ⊕. Such an “evaporation valley” had been predicted by numerical models previously. Here, we develop a minimal model to demonstrate that this valley results from the following fact: the timescale for envelope erosion is the longest for those planets with hydrogen/helium-rich envelopes that, while only a few percent in weight, double its radius. The timescale falls for envelopes lighter than this because the planet’s radius remains largely constant for tenuous envelopes. The timescale also drops for heavier envelopes because the planet swells up faster than the addition of envelope mass. Photoevaporation therefore herds planets into either bare cores (˜1.3 R ⊕), or those with double the core’s radius (˜2.6 R ⊕). This process mostly occurs during the first 100 Myr when the stars’ high-energy fluxes are high and nearly constant. The observed radius distribution further requires the Kepler planets to be clustered around 3 M ⊕ in mass, born with H/He envelopes more than a few percent in mass, and that their cores are similar to the Earth in composition. Such envelopes must have been accreted before the dispersal of the gas disks, while the core composition indicates formation inside the ice line. Lastly, the photoevaporation model fails to account for bare planets beyond ˜30-60 days; if these planets are abundant, they may point to a significant second channel for planet formation, resembling the solar system terrestrial planets.
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Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations.
Beever, Erik A; Ray, Chris; Mote, Philip W; Wilkening, Jennifer L
2010-01-01
Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.
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Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations
Beever, E.A.; Chris, R.A.Y.; Mote, P.W.; Wilkening, J.L.
2010-01-01
Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.
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Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope
Zarnetske, P.L.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.
2007-01-01
Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rombouts, Isabelle; Beaugrand, Grégory; Dauvin, Jean-Claude
2012-03-01
Climate-induced changes in the distribution of species are likely to affect the functioning and diversity of marine ecosystems. Therefore, in economic and ecological important areas, such as the English Channel, projections of the future distributions of key species under changing environmental conditions are urgently needed. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been applied successfully to determine potential distributions of species based on the information of the environmental niche of a species (sensu Hutchinson). In this study, the niches of two commercially exploited benthic species, Pecten maximus and Glycymeris glycymeris, and two ecologically important species, Abra alba and Ophelia borealis were derived using four contemporary hydrographic variables, i.e. sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, water depth and sediment type. Consequently, using these ecological envelopes, the Non-Parametric Probalistic Ecological Niche model (NPPEN) was applied to calculate contemporary probabilities of occurrence for each species in the North East Atlantic and to predict potential re-distributions under the climate change scenario A2 for two time periods 2050-2059 and 2090-2099. Results show general northern displacements of the four benthic species from the English Channel into the North Sea and southern Norwegian coast. The projections mostly indicate a reduction of suitable habitat for benthic species with a notable disappearance of their distributions in the English Channel, except for A. alba. However, interpretations should be treated with caution since many uncertainties and assumptions are attached to ecological niche models in general. Furthermore, opening up potential habitats for benthic species does not necessarily imply that the species will actually occupy these sites in the future. The displacement and colonisation success of species are a function of many other non-climatic factors such as species life histories, dispersal abilities, adaptability and community interactions.
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Assessing the Risk of Invasion by Tephritid Fruit Flies: Intraspecific Divergence Matters
Godefroid, Martin; Cruaud, Astrid; Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Rasplus, Jean-Yves
2015-01-01
Widely distributed species often show strong phylogeographic structure, with lineages potentially adapted to different biotic and abiotic conditions. The success of an invasion process may thus depend on the intraspecific identity of the introduced propagules. However, pest risk analyses are usually performed without accounting for intraspecific diversity. In this study, we developed bioclimatic models using MaxEnt and boosted regression trees approaches, to predict the potential distribution in Europe of six economically important Tephritid pests (Ceratitis fasciventris (Bezzi), Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann), Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) and Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillet)). We considered intraspecific diversity in our risk analyses by independently modeling the distributions of conspecific lineages. The six species displayed different potential distributions in Europe. A strong signal of intraspecific climate envelope divergence was observed in most species. In some cases, conspecific lineages differed strongly in potential distributions suggesting that taxonomic resolution should be accounted for in pest risk analyses. No models (lineage- and species-based approaches) predicted high climatic suitability in the entire invaded range of B. oleae—the only species whose intraspecific identity of invading populations has been elucidated—in California. Host availability appears to play the most important role in shaping the geographic range of this specialist pest. However, climatic suitability values predicted by species-based models are correlated with population densities of B. oleae globally reported in California. Our study highlights how classical taxonomic boundaries may lead to under- or overestimation of the potential pest distributions and encourages accounting for intraspecific diversity when assessing the risk of biological invasion. PMID:26274582
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meissner, Katrin J.; McNeil, Ben I.; Eby, Michael; Wiebe, Edward C.
2012-09-01
Modern-day coral reefs have well defined environmental envelopes for light, sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater aragonite saturation state (Ωarag). We examine the changes in global coral reef habitat on multimillennial timescales with regard to SST and Ωaragusing a climate model including a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model, a fully coupled carbon cycle, and six different parameterizations for continental weathering (the UVic Earth System Climate Model). The model is forced with emission scenarios ranging from 1,000 Pg C to 5,000 Pg C total emissions. We find that the long-term climate change response is independent of the rate at which CO2 is emitted over the next few centuries. On millennial timescales, the weathering feedback introduces a significant uncertainty even for low emission scenarios. Weathering parameterizations based on atmospheric CO2 only display a different transient response than weathering parameterizations that are dependent on temperature. Although environmental conditions for SST and Ωaragstay globally hostile for coral reefs for millennia for our high emission scenarios, some weathering parameterizations induce a near-complete recovery of coral reef habitat to current conditions after 10,000 years, while others result in a collapse of coral reef habitat throughout our simulations. We find that the multimillennial response in sea surface temperature (SST) substantially lags the aragonite saturation recovery in all configurations. This implies that if corals can naturally adapt over millennia by selecting thermally tolerant species to match warmer ocean temperatures, prospects for long-term recovery of coral reefs are better since Ωarag recovers more quickly than SST.
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Jaramillo, Juliana; Muchugu, Eric; Vega, Fernando E; Davis, Aaron; Borgemeister, Christian; Chabi-Olaye, Adenirin
2011-01-01
The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.
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Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.
2011-01-01
The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the “fuel” is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades. PMID:21536905
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Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J
2011-05-17
The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Brownell, L.E.; Backer, J.G.; Isaacson, R.E.
1975-07-01
Data are presented from measurements of soil moisture at the Hanford Reservation. Possible mechanisms for moisture transport in arid and semi-arid climates were studied. Measurements for the lysimeter experiment and the thermocouple psychrometer experiment were continued with a new series of measurements using closely spaced sensors installed to a depth of 1.52 meters. During the 1973-1974 water year the percolation envelope of higher moisture content penetrated to a depth of four meters in the closed-bottom lysimeter and then was eliminated by upward transport of water in late summer. Precipitation during the 1973-1974 water year percolated to a depth of aboutmore » six meters in the open-bottom lysimeter and remains as a residual perched envelope. The increase over normal percolation was due in part to a residual envelope of higher moisture content from the previous water year. Results obtained indicate the advantages of Hanford as a site for a national repository for radioactive waste. (CH)« less
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This research is a combination of experimental results and analysis of formaldehyde penetration across a residential building envelope with the objective of developing an understanding of the factors that govern indoor air concentrations of air toxics and to provide linkages betw...
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Biberger, Thomas; Ewert, Stephan D
2017-08-01
The generalized power spectrum model [GPSM; Biberger and Ewert (2016). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 140, 1023-1038], combining the "classical" concept of the power-spectrum model (PSM) and the envelope power spectrum-model (EPSM), was demonstrated to account for several psychoacoustic and speech intelligibility (SI) experiments. The PSM path of the model uses long-time power signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), while the EPSM path uses short-time envelope power SNRs. A systematic comparison of existing SI models for several spectro-temporal manipulations of speech maskers and gender combinations of target and masker speakers [Schubotz et al. (2016). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 140, 524-540] showed the importance of short-time power features. Conversely, Jørgensen et al. [(2013). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 134, 436-446] demonstrated a higher predictive power of short-time envelope power SNRs than power SNRs using reverberation and spectral subtraction. Here the GPSM was extended to utilize short-time power SNRs and was shown to account for all psychoacoustic and SI data of the three mentioned studies. The best processing strategy was to exclusively use either power or envelope-power SNRs, depending on the experimental task. By analyzing both domains, the suggested model might provide a useful tool for clarifying the contribution of amplitude modulation masking and energetic masking.
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The efficiency of convective energy transport in the sun
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schatten, Kenneth H.
1988-01-01
Mixing length theory (MLT) utilizes adiabatic expansion (as well as radiative transport) to diminish the energy content of rising convective elements. Thus in MLT, the rising elements lose their energy to the environment most efficiently and consequently transport heat with the least efficiency. On the other hand Malkus proposed that convection would maximize the efficiency of energy transport. A new stellar envelope code is developed to first examine this other extreme, wherein rising turbulent elements transport heat with the greatest possible efficiency. This other extreme model differs from MLT by providing a small reduction in the upper convection zone temperatures but greatly diminished turbulent velocities below the top few hundred kilometers. Using the findings of deep atmospheric models with the Navier-Stokes equation allows the calculation of an intermediate solar envelope model. Consideration is given to solar observations, including recent helioseismology, to examine the position of the solar envelope compared with the envelope models.
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High Performance Residential Housing Units at U.S. Coast Guard Base Kodiak: Preprint
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Romero, R.; Hickey, J.
2013-10-01
The United States Coast Guard (USCG) constructs residential housing throughout the country using a basic template that must meet the minimum Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Silver criteria or better for the units. In Kodiak, Alaska, USCG is procuring between 24 and 100 residential multi-family housing units. Priorities for the Kodiak project were to reduce overall energyconsumption by at least 20% over existing units, improve envelope construction, and evaluate space heating options. USCG is challenged with maintaining similar existing units that have complicated residential diesel boilers. Additionally, fuel and material costs are high in Kodiak. While USCG hasmore » worked to optimize the performance of the housing units with principles of improved buildingenvelope, the engineers realize there are still opportunities for improvement, especially within the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system and different envelope measures. USCG staff also desires to balance higher upfront project costs for significantly reduced life-cycle costs of the residential units that have an expected lifetime of 50 or more years. To answer thesequestions, this analysis used the residential modeling tool BEoptE+ to examine potential energy- saving opportunities for the climate. The results suggest criteria for achieving optimized housing performance at the lowest cost. USCG will integrate the criteria into their procurement process. To achieve greater than 50% energy savings, USCG will need to specify full 2x 6 wood stud R-21 insulationwith two 2 inches of exterior foam, R-38 ceiling insulation or even wall insulation in the crawl space, and R-49 fiberglass batts in a the vented attic. The air barrier should be improved to ensure a tight envelope with minimal infiltration to the goal of 2.0 ACH50. With the implementation of an air source heat pump for space heating requirements, the combination of HVAC and envelope savings inthe residential unit can save up to 58% in source energy over existing residential units.« less
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Development of a Variable-Speed Residential Air-Source Integrated Heat Pump
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rice, C Keith; Shen, Bo; Munk, Jeffrey D
2014-01-01
A residential air-source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP) is under development in partnership with a U.S. manufacturer. A nominal 10.6 kW (3-ton) cooling capacity variable-speed unit, the system provides both space conditioning and water heating. This multi-functional unit can provide domestic water heating (DWH) in either full condensing (FC) (dedicated water heating or simultaneous space cooling and water heating) or desuperheating (DS) operation modes. Laboratory test data were used to calibrate a vapor-compression simulation model for each mode of operation. The model was used to optimize the internal control options for efficiency while maintaining acceptable comfort conditions and refrigerant-side pressures andmore » temperatures within allowable operating envelopes. Annual simulations were performed with the AS-IHP installed in a well-insulated house in five U.S. climate zones. The AS-IHP is predicted to use 45 to 60% less energy than a DOE minimum efficiency baseline system while meeting total annual space conditioning and water heating loads. Water heating energy use is lowered by 60 to 75% in cold to warmer climates, respectively. Plans are to field test the unit in Knoxville, TN.« less
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On-Line Safe Flight Envelope Determination for Impaired Aircraft
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lombaerts, Thomas; Schuet, Stefan; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John
2015-01-01
The design and simulation of an on-line algorithm which estimates the safe maneuvering envelope of aircraft is discussed in this paper. The trim envelope is estimated using probabilistic methods and efficient high-fidelity model based computations of attainable equilibrium sets. From this trim envelope, a robust reachability analysis provides the maneuverability limitations of the aircraft through an optimal control formulation. Both envelope limits are presented to the flight crew on the primary flight display. In the results section, scenarios are considered where this adaptive algorithm is capable of computing online changes to the maneuvering envelope due to impairment. Furthermore, corresponding updates to display features on the primary flight display are provided to potentially inform the flight crew of safety critical envelope alterations caused by the impairment.
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Envelope and intensity based prediction of psychoacoustic masking and speech intelligibility.
Biberger, Thomas; Ewert, Stephan D
2016-08-01
Human auditory perception and speech intelligibility have been successfully described based on the two concepts of spectral masking and amplitude modulation (AM) masking. The power-spectrum model (PSM) [Patterson and Moore (1986). Frequency Selectivity in Hearing, pp. 123-177] accounts for effects of spectral masking and critical bandwidth, while the envelope power-spectrum model (EPSM) [Ewert and Dau (2000). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 108, 1181-1196] has been successfully applied to AM masking and discrimination. Both models extract the long-term (envelope) power to calculate signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Recently, the EPSM has been applied to speech intelligibility (SI) considering the short-term envelope SNR on various time scales (multi-resolution speech-based envelope power-spectrum model; mr-sEPSM) to account for SI in fluctuating noise [Jørgensen, Ewert, and Dau (2013). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 134, 436-446]. Here, a generalized auditory model is suggested combining the classical PSM and the mr-sEPSM to jointly account for psychoacoustics and speech intelligibility. The model was extended to consider the local AM depth in conditions with slowly varying signal levels, and the relative role of long-term and short-term SNR was assessed. The suggested generalized power-spectrum model is shown to account for a large variety of psychoacoustic data and to predict speech intelligibility in various types of background noise.
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The origin and evolution of dust in interstellar and circumstellar environments
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Whittet, Douglas C. B.; Leung, Chun M.
1993-01-01
This status report covers the period from the commencement of the research program on 1 Jul. 1992 through 30 Apr. 1993. Progress is reported for research in the following areas: (1) grain formation in circumstellar envelopes; (2) photochemistry in circumstellar envelopes; (3) modeling ice features in circumstellar envelopes; (4) episodic dust formation in circumstellar envelopes; (5) grain evolution in the diffuse interstellar medium; and (6) grain evolution in dense molecular clouds.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.
2011-12-01
While much attention is focused on future impacts of climate change on ecosystems, much can be learned about the previous interactions of ecosystems with recent climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation distributions (i.e. grasses, trees, and shrubs) and carbon and water cycling across the Upper Midwest USA from 1948-2007 using the Agro-IBIS dynamic vegetation model. We drove the model using a historical, gridded daily climate data set (temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at a spatial resolution of 5 min x 5 min. While trends in climate variables exhibited heterogeneous spatial patterns over the study period, the overall impact of climate change on vegetation productivity was positive. We observed total increases in net primary productivity (NPP) ranging from 20-150 g C m-2, based on linear regression analysis. We determined that increased summer relative humidity, increased annual precipitation and decreased mean maximum summer temperatures were key variables contributing to these positive trends, likely through a reduction in soil moisture stress (e.g., increased available water) and heat stress. Model simulations also illustrated an increase in annual drainage throughout the region of 20-140 mm yr-1, driven by substantial increases in annual precipitation. Evapotranspiration had a highly variable spatial trend over the 60-year period, with total change over the study period ranging between -100 and +100 mm yr-1. We also analyzed potential changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions at the biome level, but hypothesize that the model may be unable to adequately capture competitive interactions among PFTs as well as the dynamics between upper and lower canopies consisting of trees, grasses and shrubs. An analysis of the bioclimatic envelopes for PFTs common to the region revealed no significant change to the boreal conifer tree climatic domain over the study period, yet did reveal a slightly expanded domain for temperate deciduous broadleaf trees. The location of the Tension Zone, a broad ecotone dividing mixed forests in the north and southern hardwood forests and prairies in the south, was not observed to shift using analyses of both meteorological variables and through the results of simulated vegetation distributions. In general, our results supported the idea that climate change is spatially variable in nature, having significant effects on ecosystem structure and function. Our analysis also revealed interesting relationships among the key climatic quantities driving plant productivity and hydrology in the region. Most notably, while the model suggested that potential biome and PFT distributions have not likely shifted significantly in the past 60 years, climate change has contributed to substantial changes in coupled carbon, water, and energy exchange in natural ecosystems of the Upper Midwest US. We conclude that incorporating recent, high-resolution climate records into ecological studies offers valuable insight into the heterogeneous nature of climate change and its impacts on ecosystems at the local level.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nariyuki, Y.
2018-06-01
Alfvénic fluctuation is a typical state of the solar wind turbulence. Due to its finite amplitude and envelope modulation, the Alfvénic fluctuation becomes compressible. In the present study, an analytical model of the specific heat ratio in the presence of envelope-modulated Alfvén waves is derived. Ion kinetic effects are modeled by using a semi-ideal (perfect) gas model, in which the specific heat ratio depends on temperature. It is shown that the fourth order polynomial approximation is in good agreement with the kinetic theory. The resultant model is also applied to the fast solar wind plasma.
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Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change
Garcia, Raquel A; Araújo, Miguel B; Burgess, Neil D; Foden, Wendy B; Gutsche, Alexander; Rahbek, Carsten; Cabeza, Mar
2014-01-01
Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. Results In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. Main conclusions We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities. PMID:25505356
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Bozler, Julianna; Nguyen, Huy Q; Rogers, Gregory C; Bosco, Giovanni
2014-12-30
Although the nuclear envelope is known primarily for its role as a boundary between the nucleus and cytoplasm in eukaryotes, it plays a vital and dynamic role in many cellular processes. Studies of nuclear structure have revealed tissue-specific changes in nuclear envelope architecture, suggesting that its three-dimensional structure contributes to its functionality. Despite the importance of the nuclear envelope, the factors that regulate and maintain nuclear envelope shape remain largely unexplored. The nuclear envelope makes extensive and dynamic interactions with the underlying chromatin. Given this inexorable link between chromatin and the nuclear envelope, it is possible that local and global chromatin organization reciprocally impact nuclear envelope form and function. In this study, we use Drosophila salivary glands to show that the three-dimensional structure of the nuclear envelope can be altered with condensin II-mediated chromatin condensation. Both naturally occurring and engineered chromatin-envelope interactions are sufficient to allow chromatin compaction forces to drive distortions of the nuclear envelope. Weakening of the nuclear lamina further enhanced envelope remodeling, suggesting that envelope structure is capable of counterbalancing chromatin compaction forces. Our experiments reveal that the nucleoplasmic reticulum is born of the nuclear envelope and remains dynamic in that they can be reabsorbed into the nuclear envelope. We propose a model where inner nuclear envelope-chromatin tethers allow interphase chromosome movements to change nuclear envelope morphology. Therefore, interphase chromatin compaction may be a normal mechanism that reorganizes nuclear architecture, while under pathological conditions, such as laminopathies, compaction forces may contribute to defects in nuclear morphology. Copyright © 2015 Bozler et al.
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Bozler, Julianna; Nguyen, Huy Q.; Rogers, Gregory C.; Bosco, Giovanni
2014-01-01
Although the nuclear envelope is known primarily for its role as a boundary between the nucleus and cytoplasm in eukaryotes, it plays a vital and dynamic role in many cellular processes. Studies of nuclear structure have revealed tissue-specific changes in nuclear envelope architecture, suggesting that its three-dimensional structure contributes to its functionality. Despite the importance of the nuclear envelope, the factors that regulate and maintain nuclear envelope shape remain largely unexplored. The nuclear envelope makes extensive and dynamic interactions with the underlying chromatin. Given this inexorable link between chromatin and the nuclear envelope, it is possible that local and global chromatin organization reciprocally impact nuclear envelope form and function. In this study, we use Drosophila salivary glands to show that the three-dimensional structure of the nuclear envelope can be altered with condensin II-mediated chromatin condensation. Both naturally occurring and engineered chromatin-envelope interactions are sufficient to allow chromatin compaction forces to drive distortions of the nuclear envelope. Weakening of the nuclear lamina further enhanced envelope remodeling, suggesting that envelope structure is capable of counterbalancing chromatin compaction forces. Our experiments reveal that the nucleoplasmic reticulum is born of the nuclear envelope and remains dynamic in that they can be reabsorbed into the nuclear envelope. We propose a model where inner nuclear envelope-chromatin tethers allow interphase chromosome movements to change nuclear envelope morphology. Therefore, interphase chromatin compaction may be a normal mechanism that reorganizes nuclear architecture, while under pathological conditions, such as laminopathies, compaction forces may contribute to defects in nuclear morphology. PMID:25552604
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IR photometry results and dust envelope model for symbiotic Mira star candidate V 335 Vul
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bogdanov, M. B.; Taranova, O. G.; Shenavrin, V. I.
2017-10-01
We present the results of JHKLM-photometry for the symbiotic Mira star candidate V 335 Vul. Based on the average flux data, supplemented by IRAS, MSX, AKARI, and WISE mid-IR observations, we calculated a model of a spherically symmetric dust envelope of the star, made up of amorphous carbon and silicon carbide particles. The optical depth of the envelope in the visible range with a dust temperature at the inner boundary of T 1 = 1300 K is τ V = 0.58. For an envelope expansion velocity of 26.5 km s-1, the estimated mass loss rate is equal to 5.7 × 10-7 M ⊙ yr-1.
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Yokoi, Fumiaki; Dang, Mai T; Zhou, Tong; Li, Yuqing
2012-02-15
DYT11 myoclonus-dystonia (M-D) is a movement disorder characterized by myoclonic jerks with dystonic symptoms and caused by mutations in paternally expressed SGCE, which codes for ε-sarcoglycan. Paternally inherited Sgce heterozygous knock-out (KO) mice exhibit motor deficits and spontaneous myoclonus. Abnormal nuclear envelopes have been reported in cellular and mouse models of early-onset DYT1 generalized torsion dystonia; however, the relationship between the abnormal nuclear envelopes and motor symptoms are not clear. Furthermore, it is not known whether abnormal nuclear envelope exists in non-DYT1 dystonia. In the present study, abnormal nuclear envelopes in the striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) were found in Sgce KO mice. To analyze whether the loss of ε-sarcoglycan in the striatum alone causes abnormal nuclear envelopes, motor deficits or myoclonus, we produced paternally inherited striatum-specific Sgce conditional KO (Sgce sKO) mice and analyzed their phenotypes. Sgce sKO mice exhibited motor deficits in both beam-walking and accelerated rotarod tests, while they did not exhibit abnormal nuclear envelopes, alteration in locomotion, or myoclonus. The results suggest that the loss of ε-sarcoglycan in the striatum contributes to motor deficits, while it alone does not produce abnormal nuclear envelopes or myoclonus. Development of therapies targeting the striatum to compensate for the loss of ε-sarcoglycan function may rescue the motor deficits in DYT11 M-D patients.
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Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G
2018-03-01
The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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Vermaat, Jan E; Hellmann, Fritz A; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F
2017-04-01
Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.
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The analysis of a generic air-to-air missile simulation model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kaplan, Joseph A.; Chappell, Alan R.; Mcmanus, John W.
1994-01-01
A generic missile model was developed to evaluate the benefits of using a dynamic missile fly-out simulation system versus a static missile launch envelope system for air-to-air combat simulation. This paper examines the performance of a launch envelope model and a missile fly-out model. The launch envelope model bases its probability of killing the target aircraft on the target aircraft's position at the launch time of the weapon. The benefits gained from a launch envelope model are the simplicity of implementation and the minimal computational overhead required. A missile fly-out model takes into account the physical characteristics of the missile as it simulates the guidance, propulsion, and movement of the missile. The missile's probability of kill is based on the missile miss distance (or the minimum distance between the missile and the target aircraft). The problems associated with this method of modeling are a larger computational overhead, the additional complexity required to determine the missile miss distance, and the additional complexity of determining the reason(s) the missile missed the target. This paper evaluates the two methods and compares the results of running each method on a comprehensive set of test conditions.
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Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.
2012-04-01
Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)
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Optically thin core accretion: how planets get their gas in nearly gas-free discs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Eve J.; Chiang, Eugene; Ferguson, Jason W.
2018-05-01
Models of core accretion assume that in the radiative zones of accreting gas envelopes, radiation diffuses. But super-Earths/sub-Neptunes (1-4 R⊕, 2-20 M⊕) point to formation conditions that are optically thin: their modest gas masses are accreted from short-lived and gas-poor nebulae reminiscent of the transparent cavities of transitional discs. Planetary atmospheres born in such environments can be optically thin to both incident starlight and internally generated thermal radiation. We construct time-dependent models of such atmospheres, showing that super-Earths/sub-Neptunes can accrete their ˜1 per cent-by-mass gas envelopes, and super-puffs/sub-Saturns their ˜20 per cent-by-mass envelopes, over a wide range of nebular depletion histories requiring no fine tuning. Although nascent atmospheres can exhibit stratospheric temperature inversions affected by atomic Fe and various oxides that absorb strongly at visible wavelengths, the rate of gas accretion remains controlled by the radiative-convective boundary (rcb) at much greater pressures. For dusty envelopes, the temperature at the rcb Trcb ≃ 2500 K is still set by H2 dissociation; for dust-depleted envelopes, Trcb tracks the temperature of the visible or thermal photosphere, whichever is deeper, out to at least ˜5 au. The rate of envelope growth remains largely unchanged between the old radiative diffusion models and the new optically thin models, reinforcing how robustly super-Earths form as part of the endgame chapter in disc evolution.
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Geomorphic and Modeling Evidence for a Late Pleistocene Cirque Glacier in Southwest England
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Knight, J.; Harrison, S.; Rowan, A. V.
2014-12-01
Several small ice caps have been identified outside of the margins of the last (late Devensian) British ice sheet, but few sites in the uplands of southwest England show evidence for late Devensian niche/cirque glaciers and/or perennial snowbanks. Here we present evidence for the southernmost site yet discovered, in west Penwith, Cornwall. Here, a NE-facing hollow developed on granite bedrock is surrounded by tors with deep bedrock fractures and displaced angular blocks. Bedrock is exposed at the base of the hollow but sediments form a subdued ridge, interpreted as a terminal moraine, at the front of the hollow. The sediments comprise gravelly diamicton containing facetted clasts that are occasionally striated, interbedded with sand lenses. Sediments are deformed by periglacial involutions. We used a 2-D glacier energy balance and iceflow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003, Quat Sci Rev) to discover if the climatic conditions during the late Devensian could have sustained a cirque glacier at this site. Met Office regional climate data (1981-2010) were used to define mean monthly air temperatures, lapse rate, precipitation, cloudiness and relative humidity, and surface energy fluxes were calculated based on solar position during the present day and last glacial maximum (LGM). We ran a range of different glacier model simulations to test an envelope of late Devensian paleoclimate conditions inferred from other climate proxies. Model results suggest that a cirque glacier could have formed at this site under conditions equivalent to a change in temperature from present-day values of -8.5°C accompanied by a 20% decrease in precipitation, which is consistent with the regional LGM. Response times for these simulations are greater than 500 years, indicating that it is unlikely that such cirque glaciers maintained steady state and were instead short-lived features.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oya, Yoko; Sakai, Nami; Lefloch, Bertrand; López-Sepulcre, Ana; Watanabe, Yoshimasa; Ceccarelli, Cecilia; Yamamoto, Satoshi
2015-10-01
Subarcsecond-resolution images of the rotational line emissions of CS and c-C3H2 obtained toward the low-mass protostar IRAS 04368+2557 in L1527 with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array are investigated to constrain the orientation of the outflow/envelope system. The distribution of CS consists of an envelope component extending from north to south and a faint butterfly shaped outflow component. The kinematic structure of the envelope is well reproduced by a simple ballistic model of an infalling rotating envelope. Although the envelope has a nearly edge-on configuration, we find that the western side of the envelope faces the observer. This configuration is opposite to the direction of the large-scale (˜104 AU) outflow suggested previously from the 12CO (J = 3-2) observation, and to the morphology of infrared reflection near the protostar (˜200 AU). The latter discrepancy could originate from high extinction by the outflow cavity of the western side, or may indicate that the outflow axis is not parallel to the rotation axis of the envelope. Position-velocity diagrams show the accelerated outflow cavity wall, and its kinematic structure in the 2000 AU scale is explained by a standard parabolic model with the inclination angle derived from the analysis of the envelope. The different orientation of the outflow between the small and large scale implies a possibility of precession of the outflow axis. The shape and the velocity of the outflow in the vicinity of the protostar are compared with those of other protostars.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Efimov, Yu. S.
1989-01-01
R CrB stars are classical examples of stars where dust envelope formation takes place. Dust envelope formation was detected around the Kuwano-Honda object (PU Vul) in 1980 to 1981 when the star's brightness fell to 8(sup m). Such envelopes are also formed at nova outbursts. The process of dust envelope formation leads to appreciable variations in optical characteristics, which are seen in specific color and polarization variations in the course of light fading and the appearance of IR radiation. It is shown that the model of a circumstellar dust envelope with aligned particles of changing size can be successfully applied to explain most phenomena observed at the time of light minima for a number of eruptive stars. The polarization may arise in a nonspherical dust envelope or be produced by alignment of nonspherical particles.
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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Model in Operation Management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malik, Meilisa; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad
2018-01-01
Quality management is an effective system in operation management to develops, maintains, and improves quality from groups of companies that allow marketing, production, and service at the most economycal level as well as ensuring customer satisfication. Many companies are practicing quality management to improve their bussiness performance. One of performance measurement is through measurement of efficiency. One of the tools can be used to assess efficiency of companies performance is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The aim of this paper is using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to assess efficiency of quality management. In this paper will be explained CCR, BCC, and SBM models to assess efficiency of quality management.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Butner, Harold M.
1999-01-01
Our understanding about the inter-relationship between the collapsing cloud envelope and the disk has been greatly altered. While the dominant star formation models invoke free fall collapse and r(sup -1.5) density profile, other star formation models are possible. These models invoke either different cloud starting conditions or the mediating effects of magnetic fields to alter the cloud geometry during collapse. To test these models, it is necessary to understand the envelope's physical structure. The discovery of disks, based on millimeter observations around young stellar objects, however makes a simple interpretation of the emission complicated. Depending on the wavelength, the disk or the envelope could dominate emission from a star. In addition, the discovery of planets around other stars has made understanding the disks in their own right quite important. Many star formation models predict disks should form naturally as the star is forming. In many cases, the information we derive about disk properties depends implicitly on the assumed envelope properties. How to understand the two components and their interaction with each other is a key problem of current star formation.
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J. P. Copeland; K. S. McKelvey; K. B. Aubry; A. Landa; J. Persson; R. M. Inman; J. Krebs; E. Lofroth; H. Golden; J. R. Squires; A. Magoun; M. K. Schwartz; J. Wilmot; C. L. Copeland; R. E. Yates; I. Kojola; R. May
2010-01-01
We propose a fundamental geographic distribution for the wolverine (Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) based on the hypothesis that the occurrence of wolverines is constrained by their obligate association with persistent spring snow cover for successful reproductive denning and by an upper limit of thermoneutrality. To investigate this hypothesis, we developed a composite of MODIS...
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Yokoi, Fumiaki; Dang, Mai T.; Zhou, Tong; Li, Yuqing
2012-01-01
DYT11 myoclonus-dystonia (M-D) is a movement disorder characterized by myoclonic jerks with dystonic symptoms and caused by mutations in paternally expressed SGCE, which codes for ɛ-sarcoglycan. Paternally inherited Sgce heterozygous knock-out (KO) mice exhibit motor deficits and spontaneous myoclonus. Abnormal nuclear envelopes have been reported in cellular and mouse models of early-onset DYT1 generalized torsion dystonia; however, the relationship between the abnormal nuclear envelopes and motor symptoms are not clear. Furthermore, it is not known whether abnormal nuclear envelope exists in non-DYT1 dystonia. In the present study, abnormal nuclear envelopes in the striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) were found in Sgce KO mice. To analyze whether the loss of ɛ-sarcoglycan in the striatum alone causes abnormal nuclear envelopes, motor deficits or myoclonus, we produced paternally inherited striatum-specific Sgce conditional KO (Sgce sKO) mice and analyzed their phenotypes. Sgce sKO mice exhibited motor deficits in both beam-walking and accelerated rotarod tests, while they did not exhibit abnormal nuclear envelopes, alteration in locomotion, or myoclonus. The results suggest that the loss of ɛ-sarcoglycan in the striatum contributes to motor deficits, while it alone does not produce abnormal nuclear envelopes or myoclonus. Development of therapies targeting the striatum to compensate for the loss of ɛ-sarcoglycan function may rescue the motor deficits in DYT11 M-D patients. PMID:22080833
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Izquierdo, Andrés F.; Galván-Madrid, Roberto; Maud, Luke T.; Hoare, Melvin G.; Johnston, Katharine G.; Keto, Eric R.; Zhang, Qizhou; de Wit, Willem-Jan
2018-05-01
We present a composite model and radiative transfer simulations of the massive star forming core W33A MM1. The model was tailored to reproduce the complex features observed with ALMA at ≈0.2 arcsec resolution in CH3CN and dust emission. The MM1 core is fragmented into six compact sources coexisting within ˜1000 au. In our models, three of these compact sources are better represented as disc-envelope systems around a central (proto)star, two as envelopes with a central object, and one as a pure envelope. The model of the most prominent object (Main) contains the most massive (proto)star (M⋆ ≈ 7 M⊙) and disc+envelope (Mgas ≈ 0.4 M⊙), and is the most luminous (LMain ˜ 104 L⊙). The model discs are small (a few hundred au) for all sources. The composite model shows that the elongated spiral-like feature converging to the MM1 core can be convincingly interpreted as a filamentary accretion flow that feeds the rising stellar system. The kinematics of this filament is reproduced by a parabolic trajectory with focus at the center of mass of the region. Radial collapse and fragmentation within this filament, as well as smaller filamentary flows between pairs of sources are proposed to exist. Our modelling supports an interpretation where what was once considered as a single massive star with a ˜103 au disc and envelope, is instead a forming stellar association which appears to be virialized and to form several low-mass stars per high-mass object.
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Sims, A J; Reay, C A; Bousfield, D R; Menes, J A; Murray, A
2005-01-01
To measure the repeatability and pressure pulse envelope of simulators used for testing oscillometric non-invasive blood pressure (NIBP) devices; to study the effect of different envelopes on NIBP devices, and to measure the difference between NIBP devices due to different oscillometric algorithms. Three different models of NIBP simulator and 18 different patient monitors with NIBP function were studied. We developed a pressure measurement system (accuracy 0.048?mmHg) to measure the repeatability of simulators. The effect of changing the envelope was measured by using three simulators with one NIBP device. Differences between 18 NIBP devices were measured using one simulator at seven blood pressure settings. Simulators generate repeatable pressure pulse envelopes (< 0.2 mmHg) but the magnitude and shape depends on the model of simulator. Oscillometric NIBP devices are highly repeatable (< 2 mmHg) when presented with a repeatable pressure pulse envelope, but different devices employ different algorithms and give different results. For a simulated standard blood pressure setting of 120/80 mmHg, estimates of systolic pressure ranged from 112.6 to 126.6 mmHg (sd of 3.0 mmHg), and diastolic pressure ranged from 74.8 to 86.9 mmHg (sd of 3.5 mmHg). Simulators and NIBP devices are sufficiently repeatable for clinical use, but further systematic clinical studies are required to better characterize the pressure pulse envelope for different patient groups.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Xiaoguang; Wang, Jun; Wang, Yi; Zeng, Jing; Torres, Omar; Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Reid, Jeffrey; Miller, Steve
2017-07-01
We presented an algorithm for inferring aerosol layer height (ALH) and optical depth (AOD) over ocean surface from radiances in oxygen A and B bands measured by the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) orbiting at Lagrangian-1 point. The algorithm was applied to EPIC imagery of a 2 day dust outbreak over the North Atlantic Ocean. Retrieved ALHs and AODs were evaluated against counterparts observed by Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Aerosol Robotic Network. The comparisons showed 71.5% of EPIC-retrieved ALHs were within ±0.5 km of those determined from CALIOP and 74.4% of EPIC AOD retrievals fell within a ± (0.1 + 10%) envelope of MODIS retrievals. This study demonstrates the potential of EPIC measurements for retrieving global aerosol height multiple times daily, which are essential for evaluating aerosol profile simulated in climate models and for better estimating aerosol radiative effects.
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Three-dimensional envelope instability in periodic focusing channels
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qiang, Ji
2018-03-01
The space-charge driven envelope instability can be of great danger in high intensity accelerators and was studied using a two-dimensional (2D) envelope model and three-dimensional (3D) macroparticle simulations before. In this paper, we study the instability for a bunched beam using a three-dimensional envelope model in a periodic solenoid and radio-frequency (rf) focusing channel and a periodic quadrupole and rf focusing channel. This study shows that when the transverse zero current phase advance is below 90 ° , the beam envelope can still become unstable if the longitudinal zero current phase advance is beyond 90 ° . For the transverse zero current phase advance beyond 90 ° , the instability stopband width becomes larger with the increase of the longitudinal focusing strength and even shows different structure from the 2D case when the longitudinal zero current phase advance is beyond 90 ° . Breaking the symmetry of two longitudinal focusing rf cavities and the symmetry between the horizontal focusing and the vertical focusing in the transverse plane in the periodic quadrupole and rf channel makes the instability stopband broader. This suggests that a more symmetric accelerator lattice design might help reduce the range of the envelope instability in parameter space.
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Dempster, David W; Zhou, Hua; Ruff, Valerie A; Melby, Thomas E; Alam, Jahangir; Taylor, Kathleen A
2018-04-01
Previously, we reported on bone histomorphometry, biochemical markers, and bone mineral density distribution after 6 and 24 months of treatment with teriparatide (TPTD) or zoledronic acid (ZOL) in the SHOTZ study. The study included a 12-month primary study period, with treatment (TPTD 20 μg/d by subcutaneous injection or ZOL 5 mg/yr by intravenous infusion) randomized and double-blind until the month 6 biopsy (TPTD, n = 28; ZOL, n = 30 evaluable), then open-label, with an optional 12-month extension receiving the original treatment. A second biopsy (TPTD, n = 10; ZOL, n = 9) was collected from the contralateral side at month 24. Here we present data on remodeling-based bone formation (RBF), modeling-based bone formation (MBF), and overflow modeling-based bone formation (oMBF, modeling overflow adjacent to RBF sites) in the cancellous, endocortical, and periosteal envelopes. RBF was significantly greater after TPTD versus ZOL in all envelopes at 6 and 24 months, except the periosteal envelope at 24 months. MBF was significantly greater with TPTD in all envelopes at 6 months but not at 24 months. oMBF was significantly greater at 6 months in the cancellous and endocortical envelopes with TPTD, with no significant differences at 24 months. At 6 months, total bone formation surface was also significantly greater in each envelope with TPTD treatment (all p < 0.001). For within-group comparisons from 6 to 24 months, no statistically significant changes were observed in RBF, MBF, or oMBF in any envelope for either the TPTD or ZOL treatment groups. Overall, TPTD treatment was associated with greater bone formation than ZOL. Taken together the data support the view that ZOL is a traditional antiremodeling agent, wheareas TPTD is a proremodeling anabolic agent that increases bone formation, especially that associated with bone remodeling, including related overflow modeling, with substantial modeling-based bone formation early in the course of treatment. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gingras, David R.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Martos, Borja; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Morelli, Eugene
2011-01-01
Fatal loss-of-control (LOC) accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this paper directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combinations of a-priori information and realtime aerodynamic estimations are shown to provide sufficient input for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during in-flight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system has been designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. Components of ICEPro are described and results from preliminary tests are presented.
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Nuclear Graphite - Fracture Behavior and Modeling
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Burchell, Timothy D; Battiste, Rick; Strizak, Joe P
2011-01-01
Evidence for the graphite fracture mechanism is reviewed and discussed. The roles of certain microstructural features in the graphite fracture process are reported. The Burchell fracture model is described and its derivation reported. The successful application of the fracture model to uniaxial tensile data from several graphites with widely ranging structure and texture is reported. The extension of the model to multiaxial loading scenarios using two criteria is discussed. Initially, multiaxial strength data for H-451 graphite were modeled using the fracture model and the Principle of Independent Action. The predicted 4th stress quadrant failure envelope was satisfactory but the 1stmore » quadrant predictions were not conservative and thus were unsatisfactory. Multiaxial strength data from the 1st and 4th stress quadrant for NBG-18 graphite are reported. To improve the conservatism of the predicted 1st quadrant failure envelope for NBG-18 the Shetty criterion has been applied to obtain the equivalent critical stress intensity factor, KIc (Equi), for each applied biaxial stress ratio. The equivalent KIc value is used in the Burchell fracture model to predict the failure envelope. The predicted 1st stress quadrant failure envelope is conservative and thus more satisfactory than achieved previously using the fracture model combined with the Principle of Independent Action.« less
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stoliker, Patrick C.; Bosworth, John T.; Georgie, Jennifer
1997-01-01
The X-31A aircraft has a unique configuration that uses thrust-vector vanes and aerodynamic control effectors to provide an operating envelope to a maximum 70 deg angle of attack, an inherently nonlinear portion of the flight envelope. This report presents linearized versions of the X-31A longitudinal and lateral-directional control systems, with aerodynamic models sufficient to evaluate characteristics in the poststall envelope at 30 deg, 45 deg, and 60 deg angle of attack. The models are presented with detail sufficient to allow the reader to reproduce the linear results or perform independent control studies. Comparisons between the responses of the linear models and flight data are presented in the time and frequency domains to demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of the ability to predict high-angle-of-attack flight dynamics using linear models. The X-31A six-degree-of-freedom simulation contains a program that calculates linear perturbation models throughout the X-31A flight envelope. The models include aerodynamics and flight control system dynamics that are used for stability, controllability, and handling qualities analysis. The models presented in this report demonstrate the ability to provide reasonable linear representations in the poststall flight regime.
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Shirk, Andrew J; Landguth, Erin L; Cushman, Samuel A
2018-01-01
Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate-induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time. Landscape genetic analysis provides an empirical means to infer landscape factors influencing gene flow and thereby inform such conservation actions. However, there are currently many methods available for model selection in landscape genetics, and considerable uncertainty as to which provide the greatest accuracy in identifying the true landscape model influencing gene flow among competing alternative hypotheses. In this study, we used population genetic simulations to evaluate the performance of seven regression-based model selection methods on a broad array of landscapes that varied by the number and type of variables contributing to resistance, the magnitude and cohesion of resistance, as well as the functional relationship between variables and resistance. We also assessed the effect of transformations designed to linearize the relationship between genetic and landscape distances. We found that linear mixed effects models had the highest accuracy in every way we evaluated model performance; however, other methods also performed well in many circumstances, particularly when landscape resistance was high and the correlation among competing hypotheses was limited. Our results provide guidance for which regression-based model selection methods provide the most accurate inferences in landscape genetic analysis and thereby best inform connectivity conservation actions. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Love, D. M.; Venturas, M.; Sperry, J.; Wang, Y.; Anderegg, W.
2017-12-01
Modeling approaches for tree stomatal control often rely on empirical fitting to provide accurate estimates of whole tree transpiration (E) and assimilation (A), which are limited in their predictive power by the data envelope used to calibrate model parameters. Optimization based models hold promise as a means to predict stomatal behavior under novel climate conditions. We designed an experiment to test a hydraulic trait based optimization model, which predicts stomatal conductance from a gain/risk approach. Optimal stomatal conductance is expected to maximize the potential carbon gain by photosynthesis, and minimize the risk to hydraulic transport imposed by cavitation. The modeled risk to the hydraulic network is assessed from cavitation vulnerability curves, a commonly measured physiological trait in woody plant species. Over a growing season garden grown plots of aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas) were subjected to three distinct drought treatments (moderate, severe, severe with rehydration) relative to a control plot to test model predictions. Model outputs of predicted E, A, and xylem pressure can be directly compared to both continuous data (whole tree sapflux, soil moisture) and point measurements (leaf level E, A, xylem pressure). The model also predicts levels of whole tree hydraulic impairment expected to increase mortality risk. This threshold is used to estimate survivorship in the drought treatment plots. The model can be run at two scales, either entirely from climate (meteorological inputs, irrigation) or using the physiological measurements as a starting point. These data will be used to study model performance and utility, and aid in developing the model for larger scale applications.
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Yadav, Manuj; Cabrera, Densil; Kenny, Dianna T
2015-09-01
Messa di voce (MDV) is a singing exercise that involves sustaining a single pitch with a linear change in loudness from silence to maximum intensity (the crescendo part) and back to silence again (the decrescendo part), with time symmetry between the two parts. Previous studies have used the sound pressure level (SPL, in decibels) of a singer's voice to measure loudness, so as to assess the linearity of each part-an approach that has limitations due to loudness and SPL not being linearly related. This article studies the loudness envelope shapes of MDVs, comparing the SPL approach with approaches that are more closely related to human loudness perception. The MDVs were performed by a cohort of tertiary singing students, recorded six times (once per semester) over a period of 3 years. The loudness envelopes were derived for a typical audience listening position, and for listening to one's own singing, using three models: SPL, Stevens' power law-based model, and a computational loudness model. The effects on the envelope shape due to room acoustics (an important effect) and vibrato (minimal effect) were also considered. The results showed that the SPL model yielded a lower proportion of linear crescendi and decrescendi, compared with other models. The Stevens' power law-based model provided results similar to the more complicated computational loudness model. Longitudinally, there was no consistent trend in the shape of the MDV loudness envelope for the cohort although there were some individual singers who exhibited improvements in linearity. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Efficient common-envelope ejection through dust-driven winds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glanz, Hila; Perets, Hagai B.
2018-04-01
Common-envelope evolution (CEE) is the short-lived phase in the life of an interacting binary-system during which two stars orbit inside a single shared envelope. Such evolution is thought to lead to the inspiral of the binary, the ejection of the extended envelope and the formation of a remnant short-period binary. However, detailed hydrodynamical models of CEE encounter major difficulties. They show that following the inspiral most of the envelope is not ejected; though it expands to larger separations, it remains bound to the binary. Here we propose that dust-driven winds can be produced following the CEE. These can evaporate the envelope following similar processes operating in the ejection of the envelopes of AGB stars. Pulsations in an AGB-star drives the expansion of its envelope, allowing the material to cool down to low temperatures thus enabling dust condensation. Radiation pressure on the dust accelerates it, and through its coupling to the gas it drives winds which eventually completely erode the envelope. We show that the inspiral phase in CE-binaries can effectively replace the role of stellar pulsation and drive the CE expansion to scales comparable with those of AGB stars, and give rise to efficient mass-loss through dust-driven winds.
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Preserving Envelope Efficiency in Performance Based Code Compliance
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thornton, Brian A.; Sullivan, Greg P.; Rosenberg, Michael I.
2015-06-20
The City of Seattle 2012 Energy Code (Seattle 2014), one of the most progressive in the country, is under revision for its 2015 edition. Additionally, city personnel participate in the development of the next generation of the Washington State Energy Code and the International Energy Code. Seattle has pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 including buildings, transportation and other sectors. The United States Department of Energy (DOE), through Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) provided technical assistance to Seattle in order to understand the implications of one potential direction for its code development, limiting trade-offs of long-lived building envelope components less stringentmore » than the prescriptive code envelope requirements by using better-than-code but shorter-lived lighting and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) components through the total building performance modeled energy compliance path. Weaker building envelopes can permanently limit building energy performance even as lighting and HVAC components are upgraded over time, because retrofitting the envelope is less likely and more expensive. Weaker building envelopes may also increase the required size, cost and complexity of HVAC systems and may adversely affect occupant comfort. This report presents the results of this technical assistance. The use of modeled energy code compliance to trade-off envelope components with shorter-lived building components is not unique to Seattle and the lessons and possible solutions described in this report have implications for other jurisdictions and energy codes.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bertola, L. D.; Jongbloed, H.; van der Gaag, K. J.; de Knijff, P.; Yamaguchi, N.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Bauer, H.; Henschel, P.; White, P. A.; Driscoll, C. A.; Tende, T.; Ottosson, U.; Saidu, Y.; Vrieling, K.; de Iongh, H. H.
2016-08-01
Comparative phylogeography of African savannah mammals shows a congruent pattern in which populations in West/Central Africa are distinct from populations in East/Southern Africa. However, for the lion, all African populations are currently classified as a single subspecies (Panthera leo leo), while the only remaining population in Asia is considered to be distinct (Panthera leo persica). This distinction is disputed both by morphological and genetic data. In this study we introduce the lion as a model for African phylogeography. Analyses of mtDNA sequences reveal six supported clades and a strongly supported ancestral dichotomy with northern populations (West Africa, Central Africa, North Africa/Asia) on one branch, and southern populations (North East Africa, East/Southern Africa and South West Africa) on the other. We review taxonomies and phylogenies of other large savannah mammals, illustrating that similar clades are found in other species. The described phylogeographic pattern is considered in relation to large scale environmental changes in Africa over the past 300,000 years, attributable to climate. Refugial areas, predicted by climate envelope models, further confirm the observed pattern. We support the revision of current lion taxonomy, as recognition of a northern and a southern subspecies is more parsimonious with the evolutionary history of the lion.
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Bertola, L D; Jongbloed, H; van der Gaag, K J; de Knijff, P; Yamaguchi, N; Hooghiemstra, H; Bauer, H; Henschel, P; White, P A; Driscoll, C A; Tende, T; Ottosson, U; Saidu, Y; Vrieling, K; de Iongh, H H
2016-08-04
Comparative phylogeography of African savannah mammals shows a congruent pattern in which populations in West/Central Africa are distinct from populations in East/Southern Africa. However, for the lion, all African populations are currently classified as a single subspecies (Panthera leo leo), while the only remaining population in Asia is considered to be distinct (Panthera leo persica). This distinction is disputed both by morphological and genetic data. In this study we introduce the lion as a model for African phylogeography. Analyses of mtDNA sequences reveal six supported clades and a strongly supported ancestral dichotomy with northern populations (West Africa, Central Africa, North Africa/Asia) on one branch, and southern populations (North East Africa, East/Southern Africa and South West Africa) on the other. We review taxonomies and phylogenies of other large savannah mammals, illustrating that similar clades are found in other species. The described phylogeographic pattern is considered in relation to large scale environmental changes in Africa over the past 300,000 years, attributable to climate. Refugial areas, predicted by climate envelope models, further confirm the observed pattern. We support the revision of current lion taxonomy, as recognition of a northern and a southern subspecies is more parsimonious with the evolutionary history of the lion.
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Bertola, L. D.; Jongbloed, H.; van der Gaag, K. J.; de Knijff, P.; Yamaguchi, N.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Bauer, H.; Henschel, P.; White, P. A.; Driscoll, C. A.; Tende, T.; Ottosson, U.; Saidu, Y.; Vrieling, K.; de Iongh, H. H.
2016-01-01
Comparative phylogeography of African savannah mammals shows a congruent pattern in which populations in West/Central Africa are distinct from populations in East/Southern Africa. However, for the lion, all African populations are currently classified as a single subspecies (Panthera leo leo), while the only remaining population in Asia is considered to be distinct (Panthera leo persica). This distinction is disputed both by morphological and genetic data. In this study we introduce the lion as a model for African phylogeography. Analyses of mtDNA sequences reveal six supported clades and a strongly supported ancestral dichotomy with northern populations (West Africa, Central Africa, North Africa/Asia) on one branch, and southern populations (North East Africa, East/Southern Africa and South West Africa) on the other. We review taxonomies and phylogenies of other large savannah mammals, illustrating that similar clades are found in other species. The described phylogeographic pattern is considered in relation to large scale environmental changes in Africa over the past 300,000 years, attributable to climate. Refugial areas, predicted by climate envelope models, further confirm the observed pattern. We support the revision of current lion taxonomy, as recognition of a northern and a southern subspecies is more parsimonious with the evolutionary history of the lion. PMID:27488946
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Improvements of the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in MIROC6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirota, N.; Ogura, T.; Shiogama, H.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.; Tatebe, H.
2016-12-01
A new version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC6), has recently been developed. Many aspects of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations are improved compared with its previous version MIROC5. For example, MJO amplitudes underestimated in MIROC5 are enhanced; the MJO convective envelopes over the Indian Ocean, which often decays too early around the Maritime Continent in MIROC5, propagate farther to the Central Pacific; the vertical structure of the MJO related humidity shows more realistic stepwise moistening associated with the transition from shallow convection to deep convection. Our preliminary analyses indicate that these improvements are associated with a newly implemented shallow convection scheme. The shallow convection in MIROC6 transports the boundary layer moisture to the lower free troposphere, mitigating dry biases around 800hPa over the Western Pacific. MIROC6 also shows improvements in climatological mean precipitation. The coupling strength between convection and the free tropospheric humidity, that are consider to have large impacts on the reproducibility of the MJO and the mean states, will also be discussed. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI program) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-05-28
... new control architecture and a full digital flight control system which provides flight envelope... Administrator considers necessary to establish a level of safety equivalent to that established by the existing... metal with composite empennage and control surfaces. The Model EMB-550 airplane is designed for 8...
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Aircraft Flight Envelope Determination using Upset Detection and Physical Modeling Methods
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Keller, Jeffrey D.; McKillip, Robert M. Jr.; Kim, Singwan
2009-01-01
The development of flight control systems to enhance aircraft safety during periods of vehicle impairment or degraded operations has been the focus of extensive work in recent years. Conditions adversely affecting aircraft flight operations and safety may result from a number of causes, including environmental disturbances, degraded flight operations, and aerodynamic upsets. To enhance the effectiveness of adaptive and envelope limiting controls systems, it is desirable to examine methods for identifying the occurrence of anomalous conditions and for assessing the impact of these conditions on the aircraft operational limits. This paper describes initial work performed toward this end, examining the use of fault detection methods applied to the aircraft for aerodynamic performance degradation identification and model-based methods for envelope prediction. Results are presented in which a model-based fault detection filter is applied to the identification of aircraft control surface and stall departure failures/upsets. This application is supported by a distributed loading aerodynamics formulation for the flight dynamics system reference model. Extensions for estimating the flight envelope due to generalized aerodynamic performance degradation are also described.
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Structure and evolution of Uranus and Neptune
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hubbard, W. B.; Macfarlane, J. J.
1980-01-01
Three-layer interior models of Uranus and Neptune with central rocky cores, mantles of water, methane, and ammonia (the 'ices'), and outer envelopes primarily composed of hydrogen and helium are presented. The models incorporate a new H2O equation of state based on experimental data which is considerably 'softer' than previous H2O equations of state. Corrections for interior temperatures approximately 5000 K are included in the models, and the thermal evolution of both planets is investigated using recent heat flow measurements. It is found that the evolutionary considerations are consistent with gravitational field data in supporting models with approximately solar abundances of 'ice' and 'rock'. Evolutionary considerations indicate that initial temperatures and luminosities for Uranus and Neptune were not substantially higher than the present value. Both planets apparently have relatively small approximately 1-2 earth masses) hydrogen-helium envelopes, with Neptune's envelope smaller than Uranus'. A monotonic trend is evident among the Jovian planets: all have central rock-ice cores of approximately 15 earth masses, but with hydrogen-helium envelopes which decrease in mass from Jupiter to Saturn to Uranus to Neptune.
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Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lehner, F.; Joos, F.; Raible, C. C.; Mignot, J.; Born, A.; Keller, K. M.; Stocker, T. F.
2015-02-01
Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C-1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.
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Colpitts, Che C.; Ustinov, Alexey V.; Epand, Raquel F.; Epand, Richard M.; Korshun, Vladimir A.
2013-01-01
Entry of enveloped viruses requires fusion of viral and cellular membranes. Fusion requires the formation of an intermediate stalk structure, in which only the outer leaflets are fused. The stalk structure, in turn, requires the lipid bilayer of the envelope to bend into negative curvature. This process is inhibited by enrichment in the outer leaflet of lipids with larger polar headgroups, which favor positive curvature. Accordingly, phospholipids with such shape inhibit viral fusion. We previously identified a compound, 5-(perylen-3-yl)ethynyl-2′-deoxy-uridine (dUY11), with overall shape and amphipathicity similar to those of these phospholipids. dUY11 inhibited the formation of the negative curvature necessary for stalk formation and the fusion of a model enveloped virus, vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). We proposed that dUY11 acted by biophysical mechanisms as a result of its shape and amphipathicity. To test this model, we have now characterized the mechanisms against influenza virus and HCV of 5-(perylen-3-yl)ethynyl-arabino-uridine (aUY11), which has shape and amphipathicity similar to those of dUY11 but contains an arabino-nucleoside. aUY11 interacted with envelope lipids to inhibit the infectivity of influenza virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV), herpes simplex virus 1 and 2 (HSV-1/2), and other enveloped viruses. It specifically inhibited the fusion of influenza virus, HCV, VSV, and even protein-free liposomes to cells. Furthermore, aUY11 inhibited the formation of negative curvature in model lipid bilayers. In summary, the arabino-derived aUY11 and the deoxy-derived dUY11 act by the same antiviral mechanisms against several enveloped but otherwise unrelated viruses. Therefore, chemically unrelated compounds of appropriate shape and amphipathicity target virion envelope lipids to inhibit formation of the negative curvature required for fusion, inhibiting infectivity by biophysical, not biochemical, mechanisms. PMID:23283943
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Non-resonant dynamic stark control of vibrational motion with optimized laser pulses
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thomas, Esben F.; Henriksen, Niels E.
2016-06-28
The term dynamic Stark control (DSC) has been used to describe methods of quantum control related to the dynamic Stark effect, i.e., a time-dependent distortion of energy levels. Here, we employ analytical models that present clear and concise interpretations of the principles behind DSC. Within a linearly forced harmonic oscillator model of vibrational excitation, we show how the vibrational amplitude is related to the pulse envelope, and independent of the carrier frequency of the laser pulse, in the DSC regime. Furthermore, we shed light on the DSC regarding the construction of optimal pulse envelopes — from a time-domain as wellmore » as a frequency-domain perspective. Finally, in a numerical study beyond the linearly forced harmonic oscillator model, we show that a pulse envelope can be constructed such that a vibrational excitation into a specific excited vibrational eigenstate is accomplished. The pulse envelope is constructed such that high intensities are avoided in order to eliminate the process of ionization.« less
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Steven L. Voelker; Frederick C. Meinzer; Barbara Lachenbruch; J. Renee Brooks; Richard P. Guyette
2014-01-01
Tree-ring characteristics are commonly used to reconstruct climate variables, but divergence from the assumption of a single biophysical control may reduce the accuracy of these reconstructions. Here, we present data from bur oaks (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) sampled within and beyond the current species bioclimatic envelope to identify the primary...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey
2014-05-01
Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.
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Invasion trajectory of alien trees: the role of introduction pathway and planting history.
Donaldson, Jason E; Hui, Cang; Richardson, David M; Robertson, Mark P; Webber, Bruce L; Wilson, John R U
2014-05-01
Global change is driving a massive rearrangement of the world's biota. Trajectories of distributional shifts are shaped by species traits, the recipient environment and driving forces with many of the driving forces directly due to human activities. The relative importance of each in determining the distributions of introduced species is poorly understood. We consider 11 Australian Acacia species introduced to South Africa for different reasons (commercial forestry, dune stabilization and ornamentation) to determine how features of the introduction pathway have shaped their invasion history. Projections from species distribution models (SDMs) were developed to assess how the reason for introduction influences the similarity between climatic envelopes in native and alien ranges. A lattice model for an idealized invasion was developed to assess the relative contribution of intrinsic traits and introduction dynamics on the abundance and extent over the course of simulated invasions. SDMs show that alien populations of ornamental species in South Africa occupy substantially different climate space from their native ranges, whereas species introduced for forestry occupy a similar climate space in native and introduced ranges. This may partly explain the slow spread rates observed for some alien ornamental plants. Such mismatches are likely to become less pronounced with the current drive towards 'eco gardens' resulting in more introductions of ornamental species with a close climate match between native and newly introduced regions. The results from the lattice model showed that the conditions associated with the introduction pathway (especially introduction pressure) dominate early invasion dynamics. The placement of introduction foci in urban areas limited the extent and abundance of invasive populations. Features of introduction events appear to initially mask the influence of intrinsic species traits on invasions and help to explain the relative success of species introduced for different purposes. Introduction dynamics therefore can have long-lasting influences on the outcomes of species redistributions, and must be explicitly considered in management plans. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lindsey, Patricia F.
1994-01-01
In microgravity conditions mobility is greatly enhanced and body stability is difficult to achieve. Because of these difficulties, optimum placement and accessibility of objects and controls can be critical to required tasks on board shuttle flights or on the proposed space station. Anthropometric measurement of the maximum reach of occupants of a microgravity environment provide knowledge about maximum functional placement for tasking situations. Calculations for a full body, functional reach envelope for microgravity environments are imperative. To this end, three dimensional computer modeled human figures, providing a method of anthropometric measurement, were used to locate the data points that define the full body, functional reach envelope. Virtual reality technology was utilized to enable an occupant of the microgravity environment to experience movement within the reach envelope while immersed in a simulated microgravity environment.
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THERMAL EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE MODELS OF THE TRANSITING SUPER-EARTH GJ 1214b
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nettelmann, N.; Fortney, J. J.; Kramm, U.
The planet GJ 1214b is the second known super-Earth with a measured mass and radius. Orbiting a quiet M star, it receives considerably less mass-loss driving X-ray and UV radiation than CoRoT-7b, so that the interior may be quite dissimilar in composition, including the possibility of a large fraction of water. We model the interior of GJ 1214b assuming a two-layer (envelope+rock core) structure where the envelope material is either H/He, pure water, or a mixture of H/He and H{sub 2}O. Within this framework, we perform models of the thermal evolution and contraction of the planet. We discuss possible compositionsmore » that are consistent with M{sub p} = 6.55 M{sub +}, R{sub p} = 2.678 R{sub +}, an age {tau} = 3-10 Gyr, and the irradiation level of the atmosphere. These conditions require that if water exists in the interior, it must remain in a fluid state, with important consequences for magnetic field generation. These conditions also require the atmosphere to have a deep isothermal region extending down to 80-800 bar, depending on composition. Our results bolster the suggestion of a metal-enriched H/He atmosphere for the planet, as we find water-world models that lack an H/He atmosphere to require an implausibly large water-to-rock ratio of more than 6:1. We instead favor an H/He/H{sub 2}O envelope with high water mass fraction ({approx}0.5-0.85), similar to recent models of the deep envelope of Uranus and Neptune. Even with these high water mass fractions in the H/He envelope, generally the bulk composition of the planet can have subsolar water:rock ratios. Dry, water-enriched, and pure water envelope models differ to an observationally significant level in their tidal Love numbers k{sub 2} of, respectively, {approx}0.018, {approx}0.15, and {approx}0.7.« less
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Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko
2013-01-01
National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered. PMID:23700420
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Vega, Fernando E.; Davis, Aaron; Borgemeister, Christian; Chabi-Olaye, Adenirin
2011-01-01
The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1. PMID:21935419
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Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko
2013-01-01
National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051-2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species' probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares ("hotspots") in the four bird species groups in the period 1971-2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051-2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.
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CRETACEOUS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY STUDY USING DINOSAUR & PLANT PALEOBIOGEOGRAPHY
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goswami, A.; Main, D. J.; Noto, C. R.; Moore, T. L.; Scotese, C.
2009-12-01
The Early Cretaceous was characterized by cool poles and moderate global temperatures (~16° C). During the mid and late Cretaceous, long-term global warming (~20° - 22° C) was driven by increasing levels of CO2, rising sea level (lowering albedo) and the continuing breakup of Pangea. Paleoclimatic reconstructions for four time intervals during the Cretaceous: Middle Campanian (80 Ma), Cenomanian/Turonian (90 Ma), Early Albian (110 Ma) and Barremian-Hauterivian (130Ma) are presented here. These paleoclimate simulations were prepared using the Fast Ocean and Atmosphere Model (FOAM). The simulated results show the pattern of the pole-to-Equator temperature gradients, rainfall, surface run-off, the location of major rivers and deltas. In order to investigate the effect of potential dispersal routes on paleobiogeographic patterns, a time-slice series of maps from Early - Late Cretaceous were produced showing plots of dinosaur and plant fossil distributions. These Maps were created utilizing: 1) plant fossil localities from the GEON and Paleobiology (PBDB) databases; and 2) dinosaur fossil localities from an updated version of the Dinosauria (Weishampel, 2004) database. These results are compared to two different types of datasets, 1) Paleotemperature database for the Cretaceous and 2) locality data obtained from GEON, PBDB and Dinosauria database. Global latitudinal mean temperatures from both the model and the paelotemperature database were plotted on a series of latitudinal graphs along with the distributions of fossil plants and dinosaurs. It was found that most dinosaur localities through the Cretaceous tend to cluster within specific climate belts, or envelopes. Also, these Cretaceous maps show variance in biogeographic zonation of both plants and dinosaurs that is commensurate with reconstructed climate patterns and geography. These data are particularly useful for understanding the response of late Mesozoic ecosystems to geographic and climatic conditions that differed markedly from the present. Studies of past biotas and their changes may elucidate the role of climatic and geographic factors in driving changes in species distributions, ecosystem organization, and evolutionary dynamics over time.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hogerheijde, Michiel R.; Sandell, Göran
2000-05-01
Theoretical models of star formation make predictions about the density and velocity structure of the envelopes surrounding isolated, low-mass young stars. This paper tests such models through high-quality submillimeter continuum imaging of four embedded young stellar objects in Taurus and previously obtained molecular-line data. Observations carried out with the Submillimeter Continuum Bolometer Array on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope at 850 and 450 μm of L1489 IRS, L1535 IRS, L1527 IRS, and TMC 1 reveal ~2000 AU elongated structures embedded in extended envelopes. The density distribution in these envelopes is equally well fitted by a radial power-law of index p=1.0-2.0 or with a collapse model such as that of Shu. This inside-out collapse model predicts 13CO, C18O, HCO+, and H13CO+ line profiles that closely match observed spectra toward three of our four sources. This shows that the inside-out collapse model offers a good description of YSO envelopes, but also that reliable constraints on its parameters require independent measurements of the density and the velocity structure, e.g., through continuum and line observations. For the remaining source, L1489 IRS, we find that a model consisting of a 2000 AU radius, rotating, disklike structure better describes the data. Possibly, this source is in transition between the embedded class I and the optically revealed T Tauri phases. The spectral index of the dust emissivity decreases from β=1.5-2.0 in the extended envelope to 1.0+/-0.2 in the central peaks, indicating grain growth or high optical depth on small scales. The observations of L1527 IRS reveal warm (>~30 K) material outlining, and presumably heated by, its bipolar outflow. This material comprises <~0.2 Msolar, comparable to the amount of swept-up CO but only 10% of the total envelope mass. Two apparently starless cores are found at ~10,000 AU from L1489 IRS and L1535 IRS. They are cold, 10-15 K, contain 0.5-3.0 Msolar, and have flat density distributions characterized by a Gaussian of ~10,000 AU FWHM. The proximity of these cores shows that star formation in truly isolated cores is rare even in Taurus.
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Hahn, D.C.; O'Connor, R.J.; Scott, J. Michael; Heglund, Patricia J.; Morrison, Michael L.; Haufler, Jonathan B.; Wall, William A.
2002-01-01
Avian species distributions are typically regarded as constrained by spatially extensive variables such as climate, habitat, spatial patchiness, and microhabitat attributes. We hypothesized that the distribution of a brood parasite depends as strongly on host distribution patterns as on biophysical factors and examined this hypothesis with respect to the national distribution of the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater). We applied a classification and regression (CART) analysis to data from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Christmas Bird Count (CBC) and derived hierarchically organized statistical models of the influence of climate and weather, cropping and land use, and host abundance and distribution on the distribution of the Brown-headed Cowbird within the conterminous United States. The model accounted for 47.2% of the variation in cowbird incidence, and host abundance was the top predictor with an R2 of 18.9%. The other predictors identified by the model (crops 15.7%, weather and climate 14.3%, and region 9.6%) fit the ecological profile of this cowbird. We showed that host abundance was independent of these environmental predictors of cowbird distribution. At the regional scale host abundance played a very strong role in determining cowbird abundance in the cowbird?s colonized range east and west of their ancestral range in the Great Plains (26.6%). Crops were not a major predictor for cowbirds in their ancestral range, although they are the most important predictive factor (33%) for the grassland passerines that are the cowbird?s ancestral hosts. Consequently our findings suggest that the distribution of hosts does indeed take precedence over habitat attributes in shaping the cowbird?s distribution at a national scale, within an envelope of constraint set by biophysical factors.
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The impact of heat blanketing envelopes on neutron stars cooling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beznogov, M. V.; Yakovlev, D. G.; Fortin, M.; Haensel, P.; Zdunik, J. L.
2017-11-01
The goal of this work is to investigate the effects of chemical composition of heat blanketing envelopes of neutron stars on their thermal states and thermal evolution. To this purpose, we employ newly constructed models of the envelopes composed of binary ion mixtures (H-He, He-C, C-Fe) varying the mass of lighter ions (H, He or C) in the envelope. The results are compared with those calculated using the standard “onion-like” envelope. For illustration, we apply these results to estimate the internal temperature of the Vela pulsar and to study cooling of neutron stars. We show that uncertainties in the chemical composition of the envelopes can lead up to ~ 2.5 times uncertainty of the internal temperature of the star which significantly complicates theoretical reconstruction of the internal structure of cooling neutron stars from observations of their thermal surface emission.
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Adiabatic Mass Loss Model in Binary Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ge, H. W.
2012-07-01
Rapid mass transfer process in the interacting binary systems is very complicated. It relates to two basic problems in the binary star evolution, i.e., the dynamically unstable Roche-lobe overflow and the common envelope evolution. Both of the problems are very important and difficult to be modeled. In this PhD thesis, we focus on the rapid mass loss process of the donor in interacting binary systems. The application to the criterion of dynamically unstable mass transfer and the common envelope evolution are also included. Our results based on the adiabatic mass loss model could be used to improve the binary evolution theory, the binary population synthetic method, and other related aspects. We build up the adiabatic mass loss model. In this model, two approximations are included. The first one is that the energy generation and heat flow through the stellar interior can be neglected, hence the restructuring is adiabatic. The second one is that he stellar interior remains in hydrostatic equilibrium. We model this response by constructing model sequences, beginning with a donor star filling its Roche lobe at an arbitrary point in its evolution, holding its specific entropy and composition profiles fixed. These approximations are validated by the comparison with the time-dependent binary mass transfer calculations and the polytropic model for low mass zero-age main-sequence stars. In the dynamical time scale mass transfer, the adiabatic response of the donor star drives it to expand beyond its Roche lobe, leading to runaway mass transfer and the formation of a common envelope with its companion star. For donor stars with surface convection zones of any significant depth, this runaway condition is encountered early in mass transfer, if at all; but for main sequence stars with radiative envelopes, it may be encountered after a prolonged phase of thermal time scale mass transfer, so-called delayed dynamical instability. We identify the critical binary mass ratio for the onset of dynamical time scale mass transfer; if the ratio of donor to accretor masses exceeds this critical value, the dynamical time scale mass transfer ensues. The grid of criterion for all stars can be used to be the basic input as the binary population synthetic method, which will be improved absolutely. In common envelope evolution, the dissipation of orbital energy of the binary provides the energy to eject the common envelope; the energy budget for this process essentially consists of the initial orbital energy of the binary and the initial binding energies of the binary components. We emphasize that, because stellar core and envelope contribute mutually to each other's gravitational potential energy, proper evaluation of the total energy of a star requires integration over the entire stellar interior, not the ejected envelope alone as commonly assumed. We show that the change in total energy of the donor star, as a function of its remaining mass along an adiabatic mass-loss sequence, can be calculated. This change in total energy of the donor star, combined with the requirement that both remnant donor and its companion star fit within their respective Roche lobes, then circumscribes energetically possible survivors of common envelope evolution. It is the first time that we can calculate the accurate total energy of the donor star in common envelope evolution, while the results with the old method are inconsistent with observations.
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The Molecular and Dust Envelope of HD 56126
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meixner, M.; Zalucha, A.; Ueta, T.; Fong, D.; Justtanont, K.
2004-10-01
We present millimeter interferometry images of the CO J=1-0 line emission arising in the circumstellar envelope of HD 56126 (=IRAS 07134+1005), which is one of the best-studied 21 μm proto-planetary nebulae (PPNs). The CO emission extends from 1.2" to 7" in radius from the central star and appears consistent with a simple expanding envelope, as expected for a post-AGB star. The CO envelope is very clumpy with no apparent fast wind to explain these microstructures that must have arisen during the AGB mass loss. We quantitatively model the molecular envelope using a radiative transfer code that we have modified for detached shells. Our best-fit model reveals that two sequential winds created the circumstellar envelope of HD 56126: an AGB wind that lasted 6500 yr with a mass-loss rate of 5.1×10-6 Msolar yr-1 and a more intense superwind that lasted 840 yr with a mass-loss rate of 3×10-5 Msolar yr-1 and that ended the star's life on the AGB 1240 yr ago. The total mass of this envelope is 0.059 Msolar, which indicates a lower limit progenitor mass for the system of 0.66 Msolar, quite reasonable for this low-metallicity star that probably resides in the thick disk of the Galaxy. Comparison with images of the dust emission reveals a structure similar to that of the gas in the inner regions. Using 2-D UST, we model the dust emission of this source so that the model is consistent with the CO emission model and find a total dust mass of 7.8×10-4 Msolar, a superwind-dust mass-loss rate of 1.9×10-7 Msolar yr-1 and an AGB-dust mass-loss rate of 9.6×10-8 Msolar yr-1. We derive an average gas-to-dust mass ratio of 75, which is consistent with ISM values but low for what most consider for carbon stars. Our results indicate that TiC nanocrystals are probably not the carrier of the 21 μm feature.
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Neural Spike-Train Analyses of the Speech-Based Envelope Power Spectrum Model
Rallapalli, Varsha H.
2016-01-01
Diagnosing and treating hearing impairment is challenging because people with similar degrees of sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) often have different speech-recognition abilities. The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) has demonstrated that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNRENV) from a modulation filter bank provides a robust speech-intelligibility measure across a wider range of degraded conditions than many long-standing models. In the sEPSM, noise (N) is assumed to: (a) reduce S + N envelope power by filling in dips within clean speech (S) and (b) introduce an envelope noise floor from intrinsic fluctuations in the noise itself. While the promise of SNRENV has been demonstrated for normal-hearing listeners, it has not been thoroughly extended to hearing-impaired listeners because of limited physiological knowledge of how SNHL affects speech-in-noise envelope coding relative to noise alone. Here, envelope coding to speech-in-noise stimuli was quantified from auditory-nerve model spike trains using shuffled correlograms, which were analyzed in the modulation-frequency domain to compute modulation-band estimates of neural SNRENV. Preliminary spike-train analyses show strong similarities to the sEPSM, demonstrating feasibility of neural SNRENV computations. Results suggest that individual differences can occur based on differential degrees of outer- and inner-hair-cell dysfunction in listeners currently diagnosed into the single audiological SNHL category. The predicted acoustic-SNR dependence in individual differences suggests that the SNR-dependent rate of susceptibility could be an important metric in diagnosing individual differences. Future measurements of the neural SNRENV in animal studies with various forms of SNHL will provide valuable insight for understanding individual differences in speech-in-noise intelligibility.
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Personnel occupied woven envelope robot power
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wessling, F. C.
1988-01-01
The Personnel Occupied Woven Envelope Robot (POWER) concept has evolved over the course of the study. The goal of the project was the development of methods and algorithms for solid modeling for the flexible robot arm.
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Limitations of Climatic Data for Inferring Species Boundaries: Insights from Speckled Rattlesnakes
Flores-Villela, Oscar; Fujita, Matthew K.
2015-01-01
Phenotypes, DNA, and measures of ecological differences are widely used in species delimitation. Although rarely defined in such studies, ecological divergence is almost always approximated using multivariate climatic data associated with sets of specimens (i.e., the “climatic niche”); the justification for this approach is that species-specific climatic envelopes act as surrogates for physiological tolerances. Using identical statistical procedures, we evaluated the usefulness and validity of the climate-as-proxy assumption by comparing performance of genetic (nDNA SNPs and mitochondrial DNA), phenotypic, and climatic data for objective species delimitation in the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii) complex. Ordination and clustering patterns were largely congruent among intrinsic (heritable) traits (nDNA, mtDNA, phenotype), and discordance is explained by biological processes (e.g., ontogeny, hybridization). In contrast, climatic data did not produce biologically meaningful clusters that were congruent with any intrinsic dataset, but rather corresponded to regional differences in atmospheric circulation and climate, indicating an absence of inherent taxonomic signal in these data. Surrogating climate for physiological tolerances adds artificial weight to evidence of species boundaries, as these data are irrelevant for that purpose. Based on the evidence from congruent clustering of intrinsic datasets, we recommend that three subspecies of C. mitchellii be recognized as species: C. angelensis, C. mitchellii, and C. Pyrrhus. PMID:26107178
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Limitations of climatic data for inferring species boundaries: insights from speckled rattlesnakes.
Meik, Jesse M; Streicher, Jeffrey W; Lawing, A Michelle; Flores-Villela, Oscar; Fujita, Matthew K
2015-01-01
Phenotypes, DNA, and measures of ecological differences are widely used in species delimitation. Although rarely defined in such studies, ecological divergence is almost always approximated using multivariate climatic data associated with sets of specimens (i.e., the "climatic niche"); the justification for this approach is that species-specific climatic envelopes act as surrogates for physiological tolerances. Using identical statistical procedures, we evaluated the usefulness and validity of the climate-as-proxy assumption by comparing performance of genetic (nDNA SNPs and mitochondrial DNA), phenotypic, and climatic data for objective species delimitation in the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii) complex. Ordination and clustering patterns were largely congruent among intrinsic (heritable) traits (nDNA, mtDNA, phenotype), and discordance is explained by biological processes (e.g., ontogeny, hybridization). In contrast, climatic data did not produce biologically meaningful clusters that were congruent with any intrinsic dataset, but rather corresponded to regional differences in atmospheric circulation and climate, indicating an absence of inherent taxonomic signal in these data. Surrogating climate for physiological tolerances adds artificial weight to evidence of species boundaries, as these data are irrelevant for that purpose. Based on the evidence from congruent clustering of intrinsic datasets, we recommend that three subspecies of C. mitchellii be recognized as species: C. angelensis, C. mitchellii, and C. Pyrrhus.
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Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten
2011-09-01
A model for predicting the intelligibility of processed noisy speech is proposed. The speech-based envelope power spectrum model has a similar structure as the model of Ewert and Dau [(2000). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 108, 1181-1196], developed to account for modulation detection and masking data. The model estimates the speech-to-noise envelope power ratio, SNR(env), at the output of a modulation filterbank and relates this metric to speech intelligibility using the concept of an ideal observer. Predictions were compared to data on the intelligibility of speech presented in stationary speech-shaped noise. The model was further tested in conditions with noisy speech subjected to reverberation and spectral subtraction. Good agreement between predictions and data was found in all cases. For spectral subtraction, an analysis of the model's internal representation of the stimuli revealed that the predicted decrease of intelligibility was caused by the estimated noise envelope power exceeding that of the speech. The classical concept of the speech transmission index fails in this condition. The results strongly suggest that the signal-to-noise ratio at the output of a modulation frequency selective process provides a key measure of speech intelligibility. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America
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Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry
2013-04-01
On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the permafrost areas. Overall, Russia should expect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, development and implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of the country. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climates is a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1) integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements to and specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) anticipatory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes to the future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4) implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transition to ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ improvement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactory to react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.
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Laboratory Evaluation of Energy Recovery Ventilators
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kosar, D.
Over the years, building scientists have characterized the relationship between building airtightness, exhaust-only appliances airflows, and building depressurization. Now, as the use of deep retrofit measures and new construction practices is growing to realize lower infiltration levels in increasingly tighter envelopes, performance issues can arise with the operation of exhaust-only appliances in a depressurized home. As the depressurization levels climb in tighter homes, many of these exhaust-only appliances see their rated airflows reduced and other related performance issues arise as a result. If sufficiently depressurized, atmospherically vented combustion appliances that may be present in the home can backdraft as well.more » Furthermore, when exhaust-only appliances operate and the tight home becomes depressurized, water vapor intrusion from outdoors can raise additional issues of mold in the building envelope in more humid climates.« less
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Gravitational Waves from Accreting Neutron Stars Undergoing Common-envelope Inspiral
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holgado, A. Miguel; Ricker, Paul M.; Huerta, E. A.
2018-04-01
The common-envelope phase is a likely formation channel for close binary systems containing compact objects. Neutron stars in common envelopes accrete at a fraction of the Bondi–Hoyle–Lyttleton accretion rate, since the stellar envelope is inhomogeneous, but they may still be able to accrete at hypercritical rates (though not enough to become black holes). We show that common-envelope systems consisting of a neutron star with a massive primary may be gravitational-wave (GW) sources detectable in the Advanced LIGO band as far away as the Magellanic Clouds. To characterize their evolution, we perform orbital integrations using 1D models of 12 M ⊙ and 20 M ⊙ primaries, considering the effects of density gradient on the accretion onto the NS and spin evolution. From the range of possible accretion rates relevant to common-envelope evolution, we find that these systems may be louder GW sources than low-mass X-ray binaries like Sco X-1, which are currently the target of directed searches for continuous GWs. We also find that their strain amplitude signal may allow for novel constraints on the orbital separation and inspiral timescale in common envelopes when combined with pre-common-envelope electromagnetic observations.
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Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Queiros, A. M.
2016-02-01
Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multi-scale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.
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Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem.
Queirós, Ana M; Fernandes, José A; Faulwetter, Sarah; Nunes, Joana; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Mieszkowska, Nova; Artioli, Yuri; Yool, Andrew; Calosi, Piero; Arvanitidis, Christos; Findlay, Helen S; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W L; Widdicombe, Stephen
2015-01-01
Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual-level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual-level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local-environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual-level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-04-03
...; Flight Envelope Protection: High Speed Limiting AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT... protection: high speed limiting. As published, the document contained an error in that the Special Conditions...
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Baltensperger, A. P.; Huettmann, F.
2015-01-01
Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828
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Is drag luminosity effective in recurrent novae
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kato, Mariko; Hachisu, Izumi
1991-06-01
A study has been made of the efficiency of frictional processes in common envelope phase at outbursts of three recurrent novae T Pyx, U Sco, and RS Oph, by using steady-state wind models. The drag luminosity is found to depend strongly on the envelope mass. It may play an important role for a relatively massive envelope of about 0.0001 solar mass or more. For recurrent novae, however, acceleration due to the drag force is not important to eject the envelope mass because of its small envelope mass. Since the drag luminosity can be neglected at the extended phase of novamore » outburst, the light curves of these recurrent novae are determined only by the wind-driven mass loss as shown by Kato (1990). 23 refs.« less
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Bacillus subtilis extracytoplasmic function (ECF) sigma factors and defense of the cell envelope
Helmann, John D.
2016-01-01
Summary Bacillus subtilis provides a model for investigation of the bacterial cell envelope, the first line of defense against environmental threats. Extracytoplasmic function (ECF) sigma factors activate genes that confer resistance to agents that threaten the integrity of the envelope. Although their individual regulons overlap, σW is most closely associated with membrane-active agents, σX with cationic antimicrobial peptide resistance, and σV with resistance to lysozyme. Here, I highlight the role of the σM regulon, which is strongly induced by conditions that impair peptidoglycan synthesis and includes the core pathways of envelope synthesis and cell division, as well as stress-inducible alternative enzymes. Studies of these cell envelope stress responses provide insights into how bacteria acclimate to the presence of antibiotics. PMID:26901131
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Abramczyk, G.
2011-10-31
This Addendum establishes a new family of content envelopes consisting of small quantities of radioactive materials. These content envelopes and specific packing configurations are shown to be subcritical. However, the dose rates of some payloads must be measured and shown to comply with applicable radiation limits. Authorization for shipment of the content envelop requires acceptance of this Addendum by the DOE-HQ certifying official as a supplement to the 9977 SARP Revision 2 and DOE-HQ's subsequent revision of the CoC Revision 10 (which is based on SARP Addendum 2 and SARP Addendum 4) to authorize the additional content envelope. The Smallmore » Gram Quantity Content Envelopes and packing configurations will be incorporated in the next revision of the 9977 SARP.« less
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Peculiarities of the circumstellar envelopes of some Herbig Ae/Be stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pogodin, M. A.
1985-10-01
The results of a spectral and photometric investigation of nine Herbig Ae/Be stars in the visible region of the spectrum in the period from 1978 to 1982 are presented. Certain physical and kinematic parameters of the circumstellar envelopes of the investigated objects are determined on the basis of the observational material obtained and Sobolev's (1947) probabilistic method for moving envelopes. It is shown that the observed spectral characteristics of the envelopes of Herbig Ae/Be stars and their variability can be explained by using models of extended isothermal envelopes with varying structural-kinematic parameters. The existence of a correlation between the amount of dust IR excess and the presence of signs of H2O absorption in the spectra of the investigated objects is noted.
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An aircraft model for the AIAA controls design challenge
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brumbaugh, Randal W.
1991-01-01
A generic, state-of-the-art, high-performance aircraft model, including detailed, full-envelope, nonlinear aerodynamics, and full-envelope thrust and first-order engine response data is described. While this model was primarily developed Controls Design Challenge, the availability of such a model provides a common focus for research in aeronautical control theory and methodology. An implementation of this model using the FORTRAN computer language, associated routines furnished with the aircraft model, and techniques for interfacing these routines to external procedures is also described. Figures showing vehicle geometry, surfaces, and sign conventions are included.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
2014-09-01
This case study describes the University of Minnesota’s Cloquet Residential Research Facility (CRRF) in northern Minnesota, which features more than 2,500 ft2 of below-grade space for building systems foundation hygrothermal research. Here, the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership team researches ways to improve the energy efficiency of the building envelope, including wall assemblies, basements, roofs, insulation, and air leakage.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ojczyk, C.
The External Thermal and Moisture Management System (ETMMS), typically seen in deep energy retrofits, is a valuable approach for the roof-only portions of existing homes, particularly the 1 ½-story home. It is effective in reducing energy loss through the building envelope, improving building durability, reducing ice dams, and providing opportunities to improve occupant comfort and health.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ojczyk, C.
The External Thermal and Moisture Management System (ETMMS), typically seen in deep energy retrofits, is a valuable approach for the roof-only portions of existing homes, particularly the 1 1/2-story home. It is effective in reducing energy loss through the building envelope, improving building durability, reducing ice dams, and providing opportunities to improve occupant comfort and health.
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Dynamic Structural Fault Detection and Identification
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Smith, Timothy; Reichenbach, Eric; Urnes, James M.
2009-01-01
Aircraft structures are designed to guarantee safety of flight in some required operational envelope. When the aircraft becomes structurally impaired, safety of flight may not be guaranteed within that previously safe operational envelope. In this case the safe operational envelope must be redefined in-flight and a means to prevent excursion from this new envelope must be implemented. A specific structural failure mode that may result in a reduced safe operating envelope, the exceedance of which could lead to catastrophic structural failure of the aircraft, will be addressed. The goal of the DFEAP program is the detection of this failure mode coupled with flight controls adaptation to limit critical loads in the damaged aircraft structure. The DFEAP program is working with an F/A-18 aircraft model. The composite wing skins are bonded to metallic spars in the wing substructure. Over time, it is possible that this bonding can deteriorate due to fatigue. In this case, the ability of the wing spar to transfer loading between the wing skins is reduced. This failure mode can translate to a reduced allowable compressive strain on the wing skin and could lead to catastrophic wing buckling if load limiting of the wing structure is not applied. The DFEAP program will make use of a simplified wing strain model for the healthy aircraft. The outputs of this model will be compared in real-time to onboard strain measurements at several locations on the aircraft wing. A damage condition is declared at a given location when the strain measurements differ sufficiently from the strain model. Parameter identification of the damaged structure wing strain parameters will be employed to provide load limiting control adaptation for the aircraft. This paper will discuss the simplified strain models used in the implementation and their interaction with the strain sensor measurements. Also discussed will be the damage detection and identification schemes employed and the means by which the damaged aircraft parameters will be used to provide load limiting that keeps the aircraft within the safe operational envelope.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
ARBI
2014-09-01
The Stockton house retrofit is a two-story tudor style single family deep retrofit in the hot-dry climate of Stockton, CA. The home is representative of a deep retrofit option of the scaled home energy upgrade packages offered to targeted neighborhoods under the pilot Large-Scale Retrofit Program (LSRP) administered by the Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI). Deep retrofit packages expand on the standard package by adding HVAC, water heater and window upgrades to the ducting, attic and floor insulation, domestic hot water insulation, envelope sealing, lighting and ventilation upgrades. Site energy savings with the deep retrofit were 23% compared tomore » the pre-retrofit case, and 15% higher than the savings estimated for the standard retrofit package. Energy savings were largely a result of the water heater upgrade, and a combination of the envelope sealing, insulation and HVAC upgrade. The HVAC system was of higher efficiency than the building code standard. Overall the financed retrofit would have been more cost effective had a less expensive HVAC system been selected and barriers to wall insulation remedied. The homeowner experienced improved comfort throughout the monitored period and was satisfied with the resulting utility bill savings.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
D'Angelo, G.
2016-12-01
D'Angelo & Bodenheimer (2013, ApJ, 778, 77) performed global 3D radiation-hydrodynamics disk-planet simulations aimed at studying envelope formation around planetary cores, during the phase of sustained planetesimal accretion. The calculations modeled cores of 5, 10, and 15 Earth masses orbiting a sun-like star in a protoplanetary disk extending from ap/2 to 2ap in radius, ap=5 or 10 AU being the core's orbital radius. The gas equation of state - for a solar mixture of H2, H, He - accounted for translational, rotational, and vibrational states, for molecular dissociation and atomic ionization, and for radiation energy. Dust opacity calculations applied the Mie theory to multiple grain species whose size distributions ranged from 5e-6 to 1 mm. Mesh refinement via grid nesting allowed the planets' envelopes to be resolved at the core-radius length scale. Passive tracers were used to determine the volume of gas bound to a core, defining the envelope, and resulting in planet radii comparable to the Bondi radius. The energy budjet included contributions from the accretion of solids on the cores, whose rates were self-consistently computed with a 1D planet formation code. At this stage of the planet's growth, gravitational energy released in the envelope by solids' accretion far exceeds that released by gas accretion. These models are used to determine the gravitational torques exerted by the disk's gas on the planet and the resulting orbital migration rates. Since the envelope radius is a direct product of the models, they allow for a non-ambiguous assessment of the torques exerted by gas not bound to the planet. Additionally, since planets' envelopes are fully resolved, thermal and dynamical effects on the surrounding disk's gas are accurately taken into account. The computed migration rates are compared to those obtained from existing semi-analytical formulations for planets orbiting in isothermal and adiabatic disks. Because these formulations do not account for thermodynamical interactions between the planet's envelope and the disk's gas, the numerical models are also used to quanitfy the impact of short-scale tidal interactions on the total torque acting on the planet. Computing resources were provided by the NASA High-End Computing Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at Ames Research Center.
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Zhao, Zhibiao
2011-06-01
We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.
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Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Golledge, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Zoë A.; Levy, Richard H.; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Naish, Timothy R.; McKay, Robert M.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Fogwill, Christopher J.
2017-07-01
The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.
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An accurate and efficient laser-envelope solver for the modeling of laser-plasma accelerators
Benedetti, C.; Schroeder, C. B.; Geddes, C. G. R.; ...
2017-10-17
Detailed and reliable numerical modeling of laser-plasma accelerators (LPAs), where a short and intense laser pulse interacts with an underdense plasma over distances of up to a meter, is a formidably challenging task. This is due to the great disparity among the length scales involved in the modeling, ranging from the micron scale of the laser wavelength to the meter scale of the total laser-plasma interaction length. The use of the time-averaged ponderomotive force approximation, where the laser pulse is described by means of its envelope, enables efficient modeling of LPAs by removing the need to model the details ofmore » electron motion at the laser wavelength scale. Furthermore, it allows simulations in cylindrical geometry which captures relevant 3D physics at 2D computational cost. A key element of any code based on the time-averaged ponderomotive force approximation is the laser envelope solver. In this paper we present the accurate and efficient envelope solver used in the code INF & RNO (INtegrated Fluid & paRticle simulatioN cOde). The features of the INF & RNO laser solver enable an accurate description of the laser pulse evolution deep into depletion even at a reasonably low resolution, resulting in significant computational speed-ups.« less
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An accurate and efficient laser-envelope solver for the modeling of laser-plasma accelerators
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Benedetti, C.; Schroeder, C. B.; Geddes, C. G. R.
Detailed and reliable numerical modeling of laser-plasma accelerators (LPAs), where a short and intense laser pulse interacts with an underdense plasma over distances of up to a meter, is a formidably challenging task. This is due to the great disparity among the length scales involved in the modeling, ranging from the micron scale of the laser wavelength to the meter scale of the total laser-plasma interaction length. The use of the time-averaged ponderomotive force approximation, where the laser pulse is described by means of its envelope, enables efficient modeling of LPAs by removing the need to model the details ofmore » electron motion at the laser wavelength scale. Furthermore, it allows simulations in cylindrical geometry which captures relevant 3D physics at 2D computational cost. A key element of any code based on the time-averaged ponderomotive force approximation is the laser envelope solver. In this paper we present the accurate and efficient envelope solver used in the code INF & RNO (INtegrated Fluid & paRticle simulatioN cOde). The features of the INF & RNO laser solver enable an accurate description of the laser pulse evolution deep into depletion even at a reasonably low resolution, resulting in significant computational speed-ups.« less
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An accurate and efficient laser-envelope solver for the modeling of laser-plasma accelerators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Benedetti, C.; Schroeder, C. B.; Geddes, C. G. R.; Esarey, E.; Leemans, W. P.
2018-01-01
Detailed and reliable numerical modeling of laser-plasma accelerators (LPAs), where a short and intense laser pulse interacts with an underdense plasma over distances of up to a meter, is a formidably challenging task. This is due to the great disparity among the length scales involved in the modeling, ranging from the micron scale of the laser wavelength to the meter scale of the total laser-plasma interaction length. The use of the time-averaged ponderomotive force approximation, where the laser pulse is described by means of its envelope, enables efficient modeling of LPAs by removing the need to model the details of electron motion at the laser wavelength scale. Furthermore, it allows simulations in cylindrical geometry which captures relevant 3D physics at 2D computational cost. A key element of any code based on the time-averaged ponderomotive force approximation is the laser envelope solver. In this paper we present the accurate and efficient envelope solver used in the code INF&RNO (INtegrated Fluid & paRticle simulatioN cOde). The features of the INF&RNO laser solver enable an accurate description of the laser pulse evolution deep into depletion even at a reasonably low resolution, resulting in significant computational speed-ups.
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Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests.
Susaeta, Andres; Adams, Damian C; Carter, Douglas R; Dwivedi, Puneet
2016-09-01
Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production.
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Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Susaeta, Andres; Adams, Damian C.; Carter, Douglas R.; Dwivedi, Puneet
2016-09-01
Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production.
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Study of an experimental methodology for thermal properties diagnostic of building envelop
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Yingying; Sempy, Alain; Vogt Wu, Tingting; Sommier, Alain; Dumoulin, Jean; Batsale, Jean Christophe
2017-04-01
The building envelope plays a critical role in determining levels of comfort and building efficiency. Its real thermal properties characterization is of major interest to be able to diagnose energy efficiency performance of buildings (new construction and retrofitted existing old building). Research and development on a possible methodology for energy diagnostic of the building envelop is a hot topic and necessary trend. Many kinds of sensors and instruments are used for the studies. The application of infrared (IR) thermography in non-destructive evaluation has been widely employed for qualitative evaluations for building diagnostics; meanwhile, the IR thermography technology also has a large potentiality for the evaluation of the thermal characteristics of the building envelope. Some promising recent research studies have been carried out with such contactless measurement technique. Nevertheless, research efforts are still required for in situ measurements under natural environmental conditions. In order to develop new solutions for non-intrusive evaluation of local thermal performance, enabling quantitative assessment of thermal properties of buildings and materials, experiments were carried out on a multi-layer pratical scale wall fixed on a caisson placed in a climatic chamber. Six halogen lamps (1.5 kW for each lamp) placed in front of objective wall were used to emulate sunny conditions. The radiative heat flux emitted was monitored and modulated with time according to typical weather data set encountered in France. Both steady state and transient regime heat transfer were studied during these experiments. Contact sensors (thermocouples, heat flux meters, Peltier sensors) and non-contact sensors (thermal IR camera, pyranometer) were used to measure the temperatures and heat flux density evolution. It has to be noticed that the Peltier sensors have been tuned and used with a specific processing to set them compliant for heat flux density measurements. The measured data from different sensors were analysed and compared. The emissivity of wall surface and treated sensor surfaces were evaluated by using an IR camera with an adapted post-processing. Then, convective and radiative heat fluxes, at wall level, were estimated. Finally, the wall thermal properties can be calculated by using the measured temperatures and estimated heat fluxes using a dedicated thermal quadrupoles heat transfer model and an inverse method. This study aims at providing some guidelines for the choice of sensors, measurements protocol and adapted inverse model to be tested in real conditions on pilot situ scale. Aknowledgments : The Authors are very grateful to H2020 Built2Spec project for supporting this work.
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Heat and Moisture Transport and Storage Parameters of Bricks Affected by the Environment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kočí, Václav; Čáchová, Monika; Koňáková, Dana; Vejmelková, Eva; Jerman, Miloš; Keppert, Martin; Maděra, Jiří; Černý, Robert
2018-05-01
The effect of external environment on heat and moisture transport and storage properties of the traditional fired clay brick, sand-lime brick and highly perforated ceramic block commonly used in the Czech Republic and on their hygrothermal performance in building envelopes is analyzed by a combination of experimental and computational techniques. The experimental measurements of thermal, hygric and basic physical parameters are carried out in the reference state and after a 3-year exposure of the bricks to real climatic conditions of the city of Prague. The obtained results showed that after 3 years of weathering the porosity of the analyzed bricks increased up to five percentage points which led to an increase in liquid and gaseous moisture transport parameters and a decrease in thermal conductivity. Computational modeling of hygrothermal performance of building envelopes made of the studied bricks was done using both reference and weather-affected data. The simulated results indicated an improvement in the annual energy balances and a decrease in the time-of-wetness functions as a result of the use of data obtained after the 3-year exposure to the environment. The effects of weathering on both heat and moisture transport and storage parameters of the analyzed bricks and on their hygrothermal performance were found significant despite the occurrence of warm winters in the time period of 2012-2015 when the brick specimens were exposed to the environment.
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Intermediate Temperature Fluids Life Tests - Theory
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tarau, Calin; Sarraf, David B.; Locci, Ivan E.; Anderson, William G.
2008-01-01
There are a number of different applications that could use heat pipes or loop heat pipes (LHPs) in the intermediate temperature range of 450 to 750 K, including space nuclear power system radiators, and high temperature electronics cooling. Potential working fluids include organic fluids, elements, and halides, with halides being the least understood, with only a few life tests conducted. Potential envelope materials for halide working fluids include pure aluminum, aluminum alloys, commercially pure (CP) titanium, titanium alloys, and corrosion resistant superalloys. Life tests were conducted with three halides (AlBr3, SbBr3, and TiCl4) and water in three different envelopes: two aluminum alloys (Al-5052, Al-6061) and Cp-2 titanium. The AlBr3 attacked the grain boundaries in the aluminum envelopes, and formed TiAl compounds in the titanium. The SbBr3 was incompatible with the only envelope material that it was tested with, Al-6061. TiCl4 and water were both compatible with CP2-titanium. A theoretical model was developed that uses electromotive force differences to predict the compatibility of halide working fluids with envelope materials. This theory predicts that iron, nickel, and molybdenum are good envelope materials, while aluminum and titanium halides are good working fluids. The model is in good agreement with results form previous life tests, as well as the current life tests.
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Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing
Park, Chanyoung; Kim, Nam H.
2016-09-06
Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope usingmore » Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.« less
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Bacillus subtilis extracytoplasmic function (ECF) sigma factors and defense of the cell envelope.
Helmann, John D
2016-04-01
Bacillus subtilis provides a model for investigation of the bacterial cell envelope, the first line of defense against environmental threats. Extracytoplasmic function (ECF) sigma factors activate genes that confer resistance to agents that threaten the integrity of the envelope. Although their individual regulons overlap, σ(W) is most closely associated with membrane-active agents, σ(X) with cationic antimicrobial peptide resistance, and σ(V) with resistance to lysozyme. Here, I highlight the role of the σ(M) regulon, which is strongly induced by conditions that impair peptidoglycan synthesis and includes the core pathways of envelope synthesis and cell division, as well as stress-inducible alternative enzymes. Studies of these cell envelope stress responses provide insights into how bacteria acclimate to the presence of antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Modeling Protostar Envelopes and Disks Seen With ALMA: A Focus on L1527 Kinematics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Terebey, Susan; Flores Rivera, Lizxandra; Willacy, Karen
2018-06-01
ALMA probes continuum and spectral line emission from protostars that comes from both the envelope and circumstellar disk. The dust and gas emit on a variety of spatial scales, ranging from sub-arcseconds for disks to roughly 10 arcseconds for envelopes for nearby protostars. We present models of what ALMA should detect that incorporate a self-consistent collapse solution, radiative transfer, and realistic dust properties. Molecular abundances are also calculated; we present results for CO and isotopologues for the Class 0 source L1527. Results for the outer disk show that there can be significant differences from standard assumptions due to the effect of CO freeze out and non-Keplerian dynamics.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wilbanks, Thomas J; Kates, Dr. Robert W.
2010-01-01
Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental historymore » of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.« less
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Optical radiation emissions from compact fluorescent lamps.
Khazova, M; O'Hagan, J B
2008-01-01
There is a drive to energy efficiency to mitigate climate change. To meet this challenge, the UK Government has proposed phasing out incandescent lamps by the end of 2011 and replacing them with energy efficient fluorescent lighting, including compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) with integrated ballasts. This paper presents a summary of an assessment conducted by the Health Protection Agency in March 2008 to evaluate the optical radiation emissions of CFLs currently available in the UK consumer market. The study concluded that the UV emissions from a significant percentage of the tested CFLs with single envelopes may result in foreseeable overexposure of the skin when these lamps are used in desk or task lighting applications. The optical output of all tested CFLs, in addition to high-frequency modulation, had a 100-Hz envelope with modulation in excess of 15%. This degree of modulation may be linked to a number of adverse effects.
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Low-Cost Phase Change Material for Building Envelopes
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Abhari, Ramin
2015-08-06
A low-cost PCM process consisting of conversion of fats and oils to PCM-range paraffins, and subsequent “encapsulation” of the paraffin using conventional plastic compounding/pelletizing equipment was demonstrated. The PCM pellets produced were field-tested in a building envelope application. This involved combining the PCM pellets with cellulose insulation, whereby 33% reduction in peak heat flux and 12% reduction in heat gain was observed (average summertime performance). The selling price of the PCM pellets produced according to this low-cost process is expected to be in the $1.50-$3.00/lb range, compared to current encapsulated PCM price of about $7.00/lb. Whole-building simulations using corresponding PCMmore » thermal analysis data suggest a payback time of 8 to 16 years (at current energy prices) for an attic insulation retrofit project in the Phoenix climate area.« less
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Strategies to Save 50% Site Energy in Grocery and General Merchandise Stores
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hirsch, A.; Hale, E.; Leach, M.
2011-03-01
This paper summarizes the methodology and main results of two recently published Technical Support Documents. These reports explore the feasibility of designing general merchandise and grocery stores that use half the energy of a minimally code-compliant building, as measured on a whole-building basis. We used an optimization algorithm to trace out a minimum cost curve and identify designs that satisfy the 50% energy savings goal. We started from baseline building energy use and progressed to more energy-efficient designs by sequentially adding energy design measures (EDMs). Certain EDMs figured prominently in reaching the 50% energy savings goal for both building types:more » (1) reduced lighting power density; (2) optimized area fraction and construction of view glass or skylights, or both, as part of a daylighting system tuned to 46.5 fc (500 lux); (3) reduced infiltration with a main entrance vestibule or an envelope air barrier, or both; and (4) energy recovery ventilators, especially in humid and cold climates. In grocery stores, the most effective EDM, which was chosen for all climates, was replacing baseline medium-temperature refrigerated cases with high-efficiency models that have doors.« less
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Carbon prices and incentives for technological development.
Lundgren, Tommy; Marklund, Per-Olov; Samakovlis, Eva; Zhou, Wenchao
2015-03-01
There is concern that the carbon prices generated through climate policies are too low to create the incentives necessary to stimulate technological development. This paper empirically analyzes how the Swedish carbon dioxide (CO2) tax and the European Union emission trading system (EU ETS) have affected productivity development in the Swedish pulp and paper industry 1998-2008. A Luenberger total factor productivity (TFP) indicator is computed using data envelopment analysis. The results show that climate policy had a modest impact on technological development in the pulp and paper industry, and if significant it was negative. The price of fossil fuels, on the contrary, seems to have created important incentives for technological development. Hence, the results suggest that the carbon prices faced by the industry through EU ETS and the CO2 tax have been too low. Even though the data for this study is specific for Sweden, the models and results are applicable internationally. When designing policy to mitigate CO2 emissions, it is vital that the policy creates a carbon price that is high enough - otherwise the pressure on technological development will not be sufficiently strong. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cherubini, F.
2015-12-01
Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified equations are derived to infer metric values from the turnover time of the biomass feedstock and the fraction of forest residues left on site after harvest. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siguier, J.; Guigue, P.; Karama, M.; Mistou, S.; Dalverny, O.; Granier, S.
Long duration super-pressure balloons are a great challenge in scientific ballooning. Whatever the balloon type considered (spherical, pumpkin,...), it is necessary to have good knowledge of the mechanical behavior of the envelope regarding the flight level and the life-span of the balloon. For this reason CNES, ONERA and ENIT are carrying out a research program of modelization and experimentation in order to predict the envelope shape of a balloon in different conditions of temperature and differential pressure. On the one hand, we define the mechanical laws of envelope materials, that is the elasticity, plasticity and viscosity properties of polymers, and find the parameters of the law with unidirectional tests. These laws are introduced in a finite element code which predict the stress and strain state of a complex envelope structure. On the other hand, we are developing an experimental set-up to measure the 3D strain of a balloon sub-system, that is including the envelope, assemblies and apex parts, with realistic flight conditions. This facility, called NIRVANA, is a 1m3 vacuum chamber with cooled screens equipped with a stereoscopic CCD measurement system. We can submit a 1,5m diameter sample to differential pressure, regulate the temperature from +20°C to -120°C and apply a load to tendons of up to 6 tons if required. This paper presents the first results of the modelizations and m asurements of ane envelope sample submitted to axisymetrical stress due to the differential pressure. This sample consists of a 50μm multi-layer polymer film with an assembly, used in 10m diameter STRATEOLE super-pressure balloons. The modelization gives results which largely agree with the experiment and enable us to continue with cold conditions and more complex structures.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siguier, J.-M.; Guigue, P.; Karama, M.; Mistou, S.; Dalverny, O.; Granier, S.
2004-01-01
Long duration super-pressure balloons constitute a great challenge in scientific ballooning. For any type of balloons (spherical, pumpkin, …), it is necessary to have a good knowledge of the mechanical behavior of envelopes regarding the level and the lifetime of the flight. For this reason CNES, ONERA and ENIT are carrying out a research program of modelization and experimentation in order to predict the envelope shape of a balloon in different conditions of temperature and differential pressure. This study was conducted in two parts. During the first one, we defined, with parameters obtained from unidirectional tests, the mechanical laws (elasticity, plasticity and viscosity properties of polymers) of materials involved in the envelope. These laws are introduced in a finite element code, which predicts the stress and strain status of a complex envelope structure. During the second one, we developed an experimental set-up to measure the 3D strain on a balloon subsystem, which includes envelope, assemblies and apex parts, in real flight conditions. This facility, called NIRVANA, is a 1 m 3 vacuum chamber with cooled screens equipped with a stereoscopic CCD measurement system. A 1.5 m diameter sample can be tested under differential pressure, regulated temperature (from +20 to -120 °C) and a load (up to 6 tonnes) applied on tendons. This paper presents the first results obtained from the modelizations and measurements done on an envelope sample submitted to axisymmetrical stress due to the differential pressure. This sample consists of a 50 μm multilayer polymer film with an assembly, used in 10 m diameter STRATEOLE super-pressure balloons. The modelization gives results in good accordance with the experiments and will enable us to follow this work with cold conditions, time dependence (creeping) and more complex structures.
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Rago, Alfredo; While, Geoffrey M; Uller, Tobias
2012-01-01
A major goal for ecology and evolution is to understand how abiotic and biotic factors shape patterns of biological diversity. Here, we show that variation in establishment success of nonnative frogs and toads is primarily explained by variation in introduction pathways and climatic similarity between the native range and introduction locality, with minor contributions from phylogeny, species ecology, and life history. This finding contrasts with recent evidence that particular species characteristics promote evolutionary range expansion and reduce the probability of extinction in native populations of amphibians, emphasizing how different mechanisms may shape species distributions on different temporal and spatial scales. We suggest that contemporary changes in the distribution of amphibians will be primarily determined by human-mediated extinctions and movement of species within climatic envelopes, and less by species-typical traits. PMID:22957152
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Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics
Zhao, Zhibiao
2011-01-01
We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kenyon, Scott J.; Calvet, Nuria; Hartmann, Lee
1993-01-01
We describe radiative transfer calculations of infalling, dusty envelopes surrounding pre-main-sequence stars and use these models to derive physical properties for a sample of 21 heavily reddened young stars in the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud. The density distributions needed to match the FIR peaks in the spectral energy distributions of these embedded sources suggest mass infall rates similar to those predicted for simple thermally supported clouds with temperatures about 10 K. Unless the dust opacities are badly in error, our models require substantial departures from spherical symmetry in the envelopes of all sources. These flattened envelopes may be produced by a combination of rotation and cavities excavated by bipolar flows. The rotating infall models of Terebey et al. (1984) models indicate a centrifugal radius of about 70 AU for many objects if rotation is the only important physical effect, and this radius is reasonably consistent with typical estimates for the sizes of circumstellar disks around T Tauri stars.
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Rapid Automated Aircraft Simulation Model Updating from Flight Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brian, Geoff; Morelli, Eugene A.
2011-01-01
Techniques to identify aircraft aerodynamic characteristics from flight measurements and compute corrections to an existing simulation model of a research aircraft were investigated. The purpose of the research was to develop a process enabling rapid automated updating of aircraft simulation models using flight data and apply this capability to all flight regimes, including flight envelope extremes. The process presented has the potential to improve the efficiency of envelope expansion flight testing, revision of control system properties, and the development of high-fidelity simulators for pilot training.
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Estimating Most Productive Scale Size in Data Envelopment Analysis with Integer Value Data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dwi Sari, Yunita; Angria S, Layla; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad
2018-01-01
The most productive scale size (MPSS) is a measurement that states how resources should be organized and utilized to achieve optimal results. The most productive scale size (MPSS) can be used as a benchmark for the success of an industry or company in producing goods or services. To estimate the most productive scale size (MPSS), each decision making unit (DMU) should pay attention the level of input-output efficiency, by data envelopment analysis (DEA) method decision making unit (DMU) can identify units used as references that can help to find the cause and solution from inefficiencies can optimize productivity that main advantage in managerial applications. Therefore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is chosen to estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) that will focus on the input of integer value data with the CCR model and the BCC model. The purpose of this research is to find the best solution for estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) with input of integer value data in data envelopment analysis (DEA) method.
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Traveling wave solution of driven nonlinear Schrödinger equation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akbari-Moghanjoughi, M.
2017-09-01
The traveling solitary and cnoidal wave solutions of the one dimensional driven nonlinear Schrödinger equation with a generalized form of nonlinearity are presented in this paper. We examine the modulation of nonlinear solitary excitations in two known weakly nonlinear models of classic oscillators, namely, the Helmholtz and Duffing oscillators and envelope structure formations for different oscillator and driver parameters. It is shown that two distinct regimes of subcritical and supercritical modulations may occur for nonlinear excitations with propagation speeds v <√{4 F0 } and v >√{4 F0 } , respectively, in which F0 is the driver force strength. The envelope soliton and cnoidal waves in these regimes are observed to be fundamentally different. The effect of pseudoenergy on the structure of the modulated envelope excitations is studied in detail for both sub- and supercritical modulation types. The current model for traveling envelope excitations may be easily extended to pseudopotentials with full nonlinearity relevant to more realistic gases, fluids, and plasmas.
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Carriot, Jérome; Jamali, Mohsen; Cullen, Kathleen E; Chacron, Maurice J
2017-01-01
There is accumulating evidence that the brain's neural coding strategies are constrained by natural stimulus statistics. Here we investigated the statistics of the time varying envelope (i.e. a second-order stimulus attribute that is related to variance) of rotational and translational self-motion signals experienced by human subjects during everyday activities. We found that envelopes can reach large values across all six motion dimensions (~450 deg/s for rotations and ~4 G for translations). Unlike results obtained in other sensory modalities, the spectral power of envelope signals decreased slowly for low (< 2 Hz) and more sharply for high (>2 Hz) temporal frequencies and thus was not well-fit by a power law. We next compared the spectral properties of envelope signals resulting from active and passive self-motion, as well as those resulting from signals obtained when the subject is absent (i.e. external stimuli). Our data suggest that different mechanisms underlie deviation from scale invariance in rotational and translational self-motion envelopes. Specifically, active self-motion and filtering by the human body cause deviation from scale invariance primarily for translational and rotational envelope signals, respectively. Finally, we used well-established models in order to predict the responses of peripheral vestibular afferents to natural envelope stimuli. We found that irregular afferents responded more strongly to envelopes than their regular counterparts. Our findings have important consequences for understanding the coding strategies used by the vestibular system to process natural second-order self-motion signals.
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An alternative mechanism for production of emission features in some infrared objects
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Apruzese, J. P.
1975-01-01
Two dust-envelope models of the M supergiant VX Sgr, which exhibits a prominent emission feature at 10 microns, are presented. The models indicate that, for certain envelope sizes, the presence of the observed emission feature does not necessarily indicate that the emitting grains possess a similar feature in their emissivity profile. The mechanism which may in some cases be producing the observed emission feature is discussed.
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Spatial vector soliton and its collisions in isotropic self-defocusing Kerr media.
Radhakrishnan, R; Aravinthan, K
2007-06-01
A fairly general form of the two-component (dark-dark) vector one-soliton solution of the integrable coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation (Manakov model) with self-defocusing nonlinearity is obtained by using the Hirota method. It couples two dark components with the same envelope width, envelope speed, and envelope trough location using two complex arbitrary parameters not only in the envelope amplitude but also in the complex modulation. Although it has the freedom to change its pulse width without affecting its speed, it can also tune its grayness (depth of the pulse relative to background) without disturbing the envelope width and speed. The variations in peak power against the depth of localization of two dark components are investigated with and without a parametric restriction. The collision between many dark-dark vector solitons has also been studied by constructing a multisoliton solution with more free parameters.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shin, Jong-Yeob; Belcastro, Christine
2008-01-01
Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. As a part of the validation process, this paper describes an analysis method for determining a reliable flight regime in the flight envelope within which an integrated resilent control system can achieve the desired performance of tracking command signals and detecting additive faults in the presence of parameter uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. To calculate a reliable flight regime, a structured singular value analysis method is applied to analyze the closed-loop system over the entire flight envelope. To use the structured singular value analysis method, a linear fractional transform (LFT) model of a transport aircraft longitudinal dynamics is developed over the flight envelope by using a preliminary LFT modeling software tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, which utilizes a matrix-based computational approach. The developed LFT model can capture original nonlinear dynamics over the flight envelope with the ! block which contains key varying parameters: angle of attack and velocity, and real parameter uncertainty: aerodynamic coefficient uncertainty and moment of inertia uncertainty. Using the developed LFT model and a formal robustness analysis method, a reliable flight regime is calculated for a transport aircraft closed-loop system.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khan, Saniya; Hall, Oliver J.; Miglio, Andrea; Davies, Guy R.; Mosser, Benoît; Girardi, Léo; Montalbán, Josefina
2018-06-01
The red-giant branch bump provides valuable information for the investigation of the internal structure of low-mass stars. Because current models are unable to accurately predict the occurrence and efficiency of mixing processes beyond convective boundaries, one can use the luminosity of the bump—a diagnostic of the maximum extension of the convective envelope during the first-dredge up—as a calibrator for such processes. By combining asteroseismic and spectroscopic constraints, we expand the analysis of the bump to masses and metallicities beyond those previously accessible using globular clusters. Our data set comprises nearly 3000 red-giant stars observed by Kepler and with APOGEE spectra. Using statistical mixture models, we are able to detect the bump in the average seismic parameters ν max and < {{Δ }}ν > , and show that its observed position reveals general trends with mass and metallicity in line with expectations from models. Moreover, our analysis indicates that standard stellar models underestimate the depth of efficiently mixed envelopes. The inclusion of significant overshooting from the base of the convective envelope, with an efficiency that increases with decreasing metallicity, allows us to reproduce the observed location of the bump. Interestingly, this trend was also reported in previous studies of globular clusters.
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Evaluation of ISO CRS Envelopes Relative to U.S. Vehicles and Child Restraint Systems.
Hu, Jingwen; Manary, Miriam A; Klinich, Kathleen D; Reed, Matthew P
2015-01-01
The objectives of this study are to use computer simulation to evaluate the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 13216-3:2006(E) child restraint system (CRS) envelopes relative to rear seat compartments from vehicles and CRSs in the U.S. market, investigate the potential compatibility issues of U.S. vehicles and CRSs, and demonstrate whether necessary modifications can be made to introduce such a system into compatibility evaluations between U.S. vehicles and CRSs. Three-dimensional geometry models for 26 vehicles and 16 convertible CRS designs developed previously were used. Geometry models of 3 forward-facing and 3 rear-facing CRS envelopes provided by the ISO were built in the current study. The virtual fit process closely followed the physical procedures described in the ISO standards. The results showed that the current ISO rear-facing envelopes can provide reasonable classifications for CRSs and vehicles, but the forward-facing envelopes do not represent products currently in the U.S. market. In particular, all of the selected vehicles could accommodate the largest forward-facing CRS envelope at the second-row seat location behind the driver seat. In contrast, half of the selected CRSs could not fit within any of the forward-facing ISO CRS envelopes, mainly due to protrusion at the rear-top corner of the envelope. The results also indicate that the rear seat compartment in U.S. vehicles often cannot accommodate a large portion of convertible CRSs in the rear-facing position. The increased demand for vehicle fuel economy and the recommendation to keep children rear-facing longer may lead to smaller cars and larger CRSs, which may increase the potential for fit problems. The virtual classifications indicated that contact between the forward-facing CRSs and the head restraints in the rear seats as well as that between the rear-facing CRSs and the back of the front seats is a main concern regarding the compatibility between the vehicles and the CRSs. Therefore, modification of the current ISO forward-facing CRS envelopes will likely to be necessary to ensure that they are useful for the U.S. market.
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Understanding the mass-radius relation for sub-Neptunes: radius as a proxy for composition
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lopez, Eric D.; Fortney, Jonathan J.
2014-09-01
Transiting planet surveys like Kepler have provided a wealth of information on the distribution of planetary radii, particularly for the new populations of super-Earth- and sub-Neptune-sized planets. In order to aid in the physical interpretation of these radii, we compute model radii for low-mass rocky planets with hydrogen-helium envelopes. We provide model radii for planets 1-20 M {sub ⊕}, with envelope fractions 0.01%-20%, levels of irradiation 0.1-1000 times Earth's, and ages from 100 Myr to 10 Gyr. In addition we provide simple analytic fits that summarize how radius depends on each of these parameters. Most importantly, we show that atmore » fixed H/He envelope fraction, radii show little dependence on mass for planets with more than ∼1% of their mass in their envelope. Consequently, planetary radius is to a first order a proxy for planetary composition, i.e., H/He envelope fraction, for Neptune- and sub-Neptune-sized planets. We recast the observed mass-radius relationship as a mass-composition relationship and discuss it in light of traditional core accretion theory. We discuss the transition from rocky super-Earths to sub-Neptune planets with large volatile envelopes. We suggest ∼1.75 R {sub ⊕} as a physically motivated dividing line between these two populations of planets. Finally, we discuss these results in light of the observed radius occurrence distribution found by Kepler.« less
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A progenitor model of SN 1987A based on the slow-merger scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Urushibata, Takaki; Takahashi, Koh; Umeda, Hideyuki; Yoshida, Takashi
2018-01-01
Even after elaborate investigations spanning 30 years, it is still not understand how the progenitor of SN 1987A has evolved. In order to explain the unusual red-to-blue evolution, previous studies have suggested that in the red giant stage an increase either in the surface helium abundance or in the envelope mass was necessary. It is usually supposed that the helium enhancement is caused by rotational mixing, and that the mass increase is the result of a binary merger. We have thus investigated these scenarios thoroughly. We found that rotating single-star models do not satisfy all the observational constraints and that the enhancement of the envelope mass alone does not explain the observations. Here, we consider a slow-merger scenario in which both the helium abundance and the envelope mass enhancements are expected to occur. We show that most of the observational constraints, such as the red-to-blue evolution, lifetime, total mass and position in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram at collapse, and the chemical anomalies are well reproduced by a merger model with 14 and 9 M⊙ stars. We also discuss the effects of the added envelope spin in the merger scenarios.
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Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C; Close, David A; Cheung, William W L
2016-01-01
Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers' knowledge.
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Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C.; Close, David A.; Cheung, William W. L.
2016-01-01
Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge. PMID:26761439
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Distinct Perceptual Grouping Pathways Revealed By Temporal Carriers and Envelopes
Rainville, Stéphane; Clarke, Aaron
2014-01-01
Guttman et al. [2005, Vis. Res., 45(8), 1021-1030] investigated whether observers could perform temporal grouping in multi-element displays where each local element was stochastically modulated over time along one of several potential dimensions – or “messenger types” – such as contrast, position, orientation, or spatial scale. Guttman et al.’s data revealed that grouping discards messenger type and therefore support a single-pathway model that groups elements with similar temporal waveforms. In the current study, we carried out three experiments in which temporal-grouping information resided either in the carrier, the envelope, or the combined carrier and envelope of each messenger’s timecourse. Results revealed that grouping is highly specific for messenger type if carrier envelopes lack grouping information but largely messenger nonspecific if carrier envelopes contain grouping information. The imply that temporal grouping is mediated by several messenger-specific carrier pathways as well as by a messenger-nonspecific envelope pathways. Findings also challenge simple temporal-filtering accounts of perceptual grouping [Adelson & Farid, 1999, Science, 286, 2231a]. PMID:19146293
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Not Available
The External Thermal and Moisture Management System (ETMMS), typically seen in deep energy retrofits, is a valuable approach for the roof-only portions of existing homes, particularly the 1 1/2-story home. It is effective in reducing energy loss through the building envelope, improving building durability, reducing ice dams, and providing opportunities to improve occupant comfort and health.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Park, Chanyoung; Kim, Nam H.
Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope usingmore » Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.« less
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SED Modeling of 20 Massive Young Stellar Objects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanti, Kamal Kumar
In this paper, we present the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) modeling of twenty massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) and subsequently estimated different physical and structural/geometrical parameters for each of the twenty central YSO outflow candidates, along with their associated circumstellar disks and infalling envelopes. The SEDs for each of the MYSOs been reconstructed by using 2MASS, MSX, IRAS, IRAC & MIPS, SCUBA, WISE, SPIRE and IRAM data, with the help of a SED Fitting Tool, that uses a grid of 2D radiative transfer models. Using the detailed analysis of SEDs and subsequent estimation of physical and geometrical parameters for the central YSO sources along with its circumstellar disks and envelopes, the cumulative distribution of the stellar, disk and envelope parameters can be analyzed. This leads to a better understanding of massive star formation processes in their respective star forming regions in different molecular clouds.
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2016-11-28
olivocochlear reflex (MOCR), a feedback mechanism that controls gain of the outer hair cells, is thought to provide protection and enhancement for a listener in...effectively reduce the outer hair cell gain, depending on the stimulus frequency, level, and timing. Human Envelope Following Responses (EFRs
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-11-09
... Envelope Protection: Performance Credit for Automatic Takeoff Thrust Control System (ATTCS) During Go... Automatic Takeoff Thrust Control System (ATTCS) during go-around. The applicable airworthiness regulations... FAA-2012-1199 using any of the following methods: Federal eRegulations Portal: Go to http://www...
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Technology Solutions Case Study: Predicting Envelope Leakage in Attached Dwellings
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
2013-11-01
The most common method of measuring air leakage is to perform single (or solo) blower door pressurization and/or depressurization test. In detached housing, the single blower door test measures leakage to the outside. In attached housing, however, this “solo” test method measures both air leakage to the outside and air leakage between adjacent units through common surfaces. In an attempt to create a simplified tool for predicting leakage to the outside, Building America team Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) performed a preliminary statistical analysis on blower door test results from 112 attached dwelling units in four apartment complexes. Althoughmore » the subject data set is limited in size and variety, the preliminary analyses suggest significant predictors are present and support the development of a predictive model. Further data collection is underway to create a more robust prediction tool for use across different construction types, climate zones, and unit configurations.« less
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Carriot, Jérome; Jamali, Mohsen; Cullen, Kathleen E.
2017-01-01
There is accumulating evidence that the brain’s neural coding strategies are constrained by natural stimulus statistics. Here we investigated the statistics of the time varying envelope (i.e. a second-order stimulus attribute that is related to variance) of rotational and translational self-motion signals experienced by human subjects during everyday activities. We found that envelopes can reach large values across all six motion dimensions (~450 deg/s for rotations and ~4 G for translations). Unlike results obtained in other sensory modalities, the spectral power of envelope signals decreased slowly for low (< 2 Hz) and more sharply for high (>2 Hz) temporal frequencies and thus was not well-fit by a power law. We next compared the spectral properties of envelope signals resulting from active and passive self-motion, as well as those resulting from signals obtained when the subject is absent (i.e. external stimuli). Our data suggest that different mechanisms underlie deviation from scale invariance in rotational and translational self-motion envelopes. Specifically, active self-motion and filtering by the human body cause deviation from scale invariance primarily for translational and rotational envelope signals, respectively. Finally, we used well-established models in order to predict the responses of peripheral vestibular afferents to natural envelope stimuli. We found that irregular afferents responded more strongly to envelopes than their regular counterparts. Our findings have important consequences for understanding the coding strategies used by the vestibular system to process natural second-order self-motion signals. PMID:28575032
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Sahai, R; Wannier, P G
1992-07-20
We have made a search for SO in the mass-loss envelopes of 24 mostly oxygen-rich red giants, using the 8(8)-7(7) (344.3 GHz), 6(5)-5(4) (219.9 GHz), 4(3)-3(2) (138.2 GHz), and 3(2)-2(1) (99.3 GHz) transitions. One or more of these transitions were detected toward 14 envelopes, including those of the supergiants VY CMa and IRC +10420. The SO envelope of IK Tau was measurably extended, and that of IRC +10420 marginally so, allowing us to determine the envelope sizes directly. The SiO (v = 0) J = 8-7, J = 5-4, and J = 3-2 lines at 347.3, 217.1, and 130.3 GHz were detected simultaneously with the 344.3, 219.9, and 138.2 GHz SO lines, respectively. From our SO data, as well as from SO2 data published elsewhere (for a few sources), we derive the circumstellar SO and SO2 abundances and compare them with theoretical predictions. We find that the photospheric abundances of SO and SO2 are insignificant, and that SO and SO2 must be produced in the circumstellar envelopes. However, the (average) SO abundances are larger than even the peak values predicted by nonequilibrium circumstellar chemistry models. The large SO abundances imply that S is not heavily depleted into grains in these envelopes, and further suggest that (i) the stellar mass-loss rates in these objects are substantially larger than accepted values, (ii) the circumstellar H/H2 abundance ratio is quite small, and (iii) the reaction of O and SH dominates over the reaction of S and OH in the production of SO. In the peculiar bipolar nebula OH 231.8+4.2, the combined SO and SO2 abundance exceeds the cosmic S abundance, if the mass-loss rate in this object is smaller than or equal to l0(-4) M solar yr-1. In IK Tau the data can only be fitted with models in which the SO is distributed in a hollow shell, as predicted by the nonequilibrium chemistry models. In another three, which have no measurable OH, the discovery of SO is difficult to explain by such models.
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Measuring the performance of Internet companies using a two-stage data envelopment analysis model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cao, Xiongfei; Yang, Feng
2011-05-01
In exploring the business operation of Internet companies, few researchers have used data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate their performance. Since the Internet companies have a two-stage production process: marketability and profitability, this study employs a relational two-stage DEA model to assess the efficiency of the 40 dot com firms. The results show that our model performs better in measuring efficiency, and is able to discriminate the causes of inefficiency, thus helping business management to be more effective through providing more guidance to business performance improvement.
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Chetnani, Bhaskar
2017-01-01
Abstract A T-box regulator or riboswitch actively monitors the levels of charged/uncharged tRNA and participates in amino acid homeostasis by regulating genes involved in their utilization or biosynthesis. It has an aptamer domain for cognate tRNA recognition and an expression platform to sense the charge state and modulate gene expression. These two conserved domains are connected by a variable linker that harbors additional secondary structural elements, such as Stem III. The structural basis for specific tRNA binding is known, but the structural basis for charge sensing and the role of other elements remains elusive. To gain new structural insights on the T-box mechanism, a molecular envelope was calculated from small angle X-ray scattering data for the Bacillus subtilis glyQS T-box riboswitch in complex with an uncharged tRNAGly. A structural model of an anti-terminated glyQS T-box in complex with its cognate tRNAGly was derived based on the molecular envelope. It shows the location and relative orientation of various secondary structural elements. The model was validated by comparing the envelopes of the wild-type complex and two variants. The structural model suggests that in addition to a possible regulatory role, Stem III could aid in preferential stabilization of the T-box anti-terminated state allowing read-through of regulated genes. PMID:28531275
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Flight testing a V/STOL aircraft to identify a full-envelope aerodynamic model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mcnally, B. David; Bach, Ralph E., Jr.
1988-01-01
Flight-test techniques are being used to generate a data base for identification of a full-envelope aerodynamic model of a V/STOL fighter aircraft, the YAV-8B Harrier. The flight envelope to be modeled includes hover, transition to conventional flight and back to hover, STOL operation, and normal cruise. Standard V/STOL procedures such as vertical takeoff and landings, and short takeoff and landings are used to gather data in the powered-lift flight regime. Long (3 to 5 min) maneuvers which include a variety of input types are used to obtain large-amplitude control and response excitations. The aircraft is under continuous radar tracking; a laser tracker is used for V/STOL operations near the ground. Tracking data are used with state-estimation techniques to check data consistency and to derive unmeasured variables, for example, angular accelerations. A propulsion model of the YAV-8B's engine and reaction control system is used to isolate aerodynamic forces and moments for model identification. Representative V/STOL flight data are presented. The processing of a typical short takeoff and slow landing maneuver is illustrated.
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B cell clonal lineage alterations upon recombinant HIV-1 envelope immunization of Rhesus macaques
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Broadly neutralizing HIV-1 antibodies (bNAbs) isolated from infected subjects display protective potential in animal models. Their elicitation by immunization is thus highly desirable. The HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) is the sole viral target of bnAbs, but is also targeted by binding, non-neutr...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-01-30
... Envelope Protection: Performance Credit for Automatic Takeoff Thrust Control System (ATTCS) During Go... System (ATTCS) during go-around. The applicable airworthiness regulations do not contain adequate or... for this function during go-arounds to show compliance with the requirements of Sec. 25.121(d) for...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sahai, Raghvendra; Wannier, Peter G.
1992-01-01
SO emission was searched for in one or more of four transitions toward 23 oxygen-rich red giant or supergiant stars and one S star, selected primarily on the basis of their nonmaser SiO emission. SO was detected in a total of 14 circumstellar envelopes, 13 of which are new detections. The circumstellar abundance of SO (and SO2) is significantly enhanced over the equilibrium value achieved in the photospheres of these stars. In general, the SO abundances are significantly larger than predicted by nonequilibrium circumstellar chemistry models. Sulfur cannot be significantly depleted onto circumstellar grains, and probably exists as H2S (and/or SH) in the inner regions of the envelopes. The SO rotational-level population in most circumstellar envelopes observed is characterized by excitation temperatures less than or approximately equal to 50 K. The circumstellar abundance of SO2 is comparable to, or larger than, that of SO, ruling out the 'large' value adopted for the unshielded photodissociation rate for SO2 in recent models.
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Holmgren, Camille A.; Norris, Jodi; Betancourt, Julio L.
2007-01-01
Late Quaternary histories of two North American desert biomes—C4 grasslands and C3 shrublands—are poorly known despite their sensitivity and potential value in reconstructing summer rains and winter temperatures. Plant macrofossil assemblages from packrat midden series in the northern Chihuahuan Desert show that C4 grasses and annuals typical of desert grassland persisted near their present northern limits throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. By contrast, key C3 desert shrubs appeared somewhat abruptly after 5000cal.yrBP. Bioclimatic envelopes for select C4 and C3 species are mapped to interpret the glacial-interglacial persistence of desert grassland and the mid-to-late Holocene expansion of desert shrublands. The envelopes suggest relatively warm Pleistocene temperatures with moist summers allowed for persistence of C4 grasses, whereas winters were probably too cold (or too wet) for C3 desert shrubs. Contrary to climate model results, core processes associated with the North American Monsoon and moisture transport to the northern Chihuahuan Desert remained intact throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Mid-latitude effects, however, truncated midsummer (July-August) moisture transport north of 35° N. The sudden expansion of desert shrublands after 5000cal.yrBP may be a threshold response to warmer winters associated with increasing boreal winter insolation, and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Southface Energy Institute (Southface) partnered with owners and/or builders with various market constraints and ultimate goals for three projects in different climate zones: Savannah, GA (CZ 2), Clemson, SC (CZ 3), and LaFayette, GA (CZ 4). This report documents the design process, computational energy modeling, construction, envelope performance metrics, long-term monitoring results, and successes and failures of the design and execution of these high performance homes. The three bedroom/two bathroom test home in Savannah Gardens on an elevated slab foundation has a semi-conditioned, encapsulated attic. A neighboring home built to EarthCraft specifications was also monitored as a control for exteriormore » foam insulation and a heat pump water heater (HPWH). For the JMC Patrick Square, a single-story project in Clemson, the small-scale production builder wanted to increase their level of energy efficiency beyond their current green building practices, including bringing ducts into conditioned space. Through a combination of upgrade measures the team met this goal and achieved many Zero Energy Ready Home requirements. LaFayette Housing Authority undertook a development of 30 affordable rental housing units in 15 duplexes in LaFayette, GA. Because they would be long-term owners, their priorities were low utility bills for the residents and durable, maintainable buildings. The team employed BEopt to optimize building envelope and systems choices, including 2x6 advanced framed walls, insulated slab, and heat pump water heater in a utility closet which was ducted to/from an encapsulated attic.« less
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Atomic and molecular hydrogen in the circumstellar envelopes of late-type stars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Glassgold, A. E.; Huggins, P. J.
1983-01-01
The distribution of atomic and molecular hydrogen in the expanding circumstellar envelopes of cool evolved stars is discussed. The main concern is to evaluate the effects of photodestruction of H2 by galactic UV radiation, including shielding of the radiation by H2 itself and by dust in the envelope. One of the most important parameters is the H/H2 ratio which is frozen out in the upper atmosphere of the star. For stars with photospheric temperatures greater than about 2500 K, atmospheric models suggest that the outflowing hydrogen is mainly atomic, whereas cooler stars should be substantially molecular. In the latter case, photodissociation of H2 and heavy molecules contribute to the atomic hydrogen content of the outer envelope. The presented estimates indicate that atomic hydrogen is almost at the limit of detection in the C-rich star IRC + 10216, and may be detectable in warmer stars. Failure to detect it would have important implications for the general understanding of circumstellar envelopes.
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Piloted Simulator Evaluation of Maneuvering Envelope Information for Flight Crew Awareness
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lombaerts, Thomas; Schuet, Stefan; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John; Shish, Kimberlee; Martin, Lynne
2015-01-01
The implementation and evaluation of an efficient method for estimating safe aircraft maneuvering envelopes are discussed. A Bayesian approach is used to produce a deterministic algorithm for estimating aerodynamic system parameters from existing noisy sensor measurements, which are then used to estimate the trim envelope through efficient high- fidelity model-based computations of attainable equilibrium sets. The safe maneuverability limitations are extended beyond the trim envelope through a robust reachability analysis derived from an optimal control formulation. The trim and maneuvering envelope limits are then conveyed to pilots through three axes on the primary flight display. To evaluate the new display features, commercial airline crews flew multiple challenging approach and landing scenarios in the full motion Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator at NASA Ames Research Center, as part of a larger research initiative to investigate the impact on the energy state awareness of the crew. Results show that the additional display features have the potential to significantly improve situational awareness of the flight crew.
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Influence of stellar radiation pressure on flow structure in the envelope of hot-Jupiter HD 209458b
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cherenkov, A. A.; Bisikalo, D. V.; Kosovichev, A. G.
2018-03-01
Close-in exoplanets are subjected to extreme radiation of their host stars. Photometric observations of the hot-Jupiter HD 209458b transit by HST/STIS detected strong absorption in the Ly α line, thus indicating the existence of a hydrogen envelope extending beyond the Roche lobe. The gasdynamic modelling (Bisikalo et al.) showed that the stable structure of this envelope is maintained by the balance between the Roche lobe overfilling and stellar wind pressure. Obviously, the dynamics and stability of the envelope can be affected by stellar radiation pressure. Using 3D gasdynamic simulations, we study the impact of radiation pressure in the Ly α line on the envelope of hot-Jupiter HD 209458b, and show that the effect is not strong enough to significantly affect the gasdynamics in the system. For a detectable radiation pressure effect the intensity of the Ly α line has to be by two orders of magnitude greater.
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Yokoi, Fumiaki; Dang, Mai T.; Yang, Guang; Li, JinDong; Doroodchi, Atbin; Zhou, Tong; Li, Yuqing
2011-01-01
Myoclonus-dystonia (M-D) is a movement disorder characterized by myoclonic jerks with dystonia. DYT11 M-D is caused by mutations in SGCE which codes for ε-sarcoglycan. SGCE is maternally imprinted and paternally expressed. Abnormal nuclear envelope has been reported in mouse models of DYT1 generalized torsion dystonia. However, it is not known whether similar alterations occur in DYT11 M-D. We developed a mouse model of DYT11 M-D using paternally-inherited Sgce heterozygous knockout (Sgce KO) mice and reported that they had myoclonus and motor coordination and learning deficits in the beam-walking test. However, the specific brain regions that contribute to these phenotypes have not been identified. Since ε-sarcoglycan is highly expressed in the cerebellar Purkinje cells, here we examined the nuclear envelope in these cells using a transmission electron microscope and found that they are abnormal in Sgce KO mice. Our results put DYT11 M-D in a growing family of nuclear envelopathies. To analyze the effect of loss of ε-sarcoglycan function in the cerebellar Purkinje cells, we produced paternally-inherited cerebellar Purkinje cell-specific Sgce conditional knockout (Sgce pKO) mice. Sgce pKO mice showed motor learning deficits, while they did not show abnormal nuclear envelope in the cerebellar Purkinje cells, robust motor deficits, or myoclonus. The results suggest that ε-sarcoglycan in the cerebellar Purkinje cells contributes to the motor learning, while loss of ε-sarcoglycan in other brain regions may contribute to nuclear envelope abnormality, myoclonus and motor coordination deficits. PMID:22040906
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kervella, P.; Mérand, A.; Perrin, G.; Coudé du Foresto, V.
2006-03-01
We present the results of long-baseline interferometric observations of the bright southern Cepheid ℓ Carinae in the infrared N (8-13 μm) and K (2.0-2.4 μm) bands, using the MIDI and VINCI instruments of the VLT Interferometer. We resolve in the N band a large circumstellar envelope (CSE) that we model with a Gaussian of 3 Rstar (≈500 R⊙ ≈ 2-3 AU) half width at half maximum. The signature of this envelope is also detected in our K band data as a deviation from a single limb darkened disk visibility function. The superimposition of a Gaussian CSE on the limb darkened disk model of the Cepheid star results in a significantly better fit of our VINCI data. The extracted CSE parameters in the K band are a half width at half maximum of 2 Rstar, comparable to the N band model, and a total brightness of 4% of the stellar photosphere. A possibility is that this CSE is linked to the relatively large mass loss rate of ℓ Car. Though its physical nature cannot be determined from our data, we discuss an analogy with the molecular envelopes of RV Tauri, red supergiants and Miras.
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The effects of diffusion in hot subdwarf progenitors from the common envelope channel
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Byrne, Conor M.; Jeffery, C. Simon; Tout, Christopher A.; Hu, Haili
2018-04-01
Diffusion of elements in the atmosphere and envelope of a star can drastically alter its surface composition, leading to extreme chemical peculiarities. We consider the case of hot subdwarfs, where surface helium abundances range from practically zero to almost 100 percent. Since hot subdwarfs can form via a number of different evolution channels, a key question concerns how the formation mechanism is connected to the present surface chemistry. A sequence of extreme horizontal branch star models was generated by producing post-common envelope stars from red giants. Evolution was computed with MESA from envelope ejection up to core-helium ignition. Surface abundances were calculated at the zero-age horizontal branch for models with and without diffusion. A number of simulations also included radiative levitation. The goal was to study surface chemistry during evolution from cool giant to hot subdwarf and determine when the characteristic subdwarf surface is established. Only stars leaving the giant branch close to core-helium ignition become hydrogen-rich subdwarfs at the zero-age horizontal branch. Diffusion, including radiative levitation, depletes the initial surface helium in all cases. All subdwarf models rapidly become more depleted than observations allow. Surface abundances of other elements follow observed trends in general, but not in detail. Additional physics is required.
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Vesicular PtdIns(3,4,5)P3 and Rab7 are key effectors of sea urchin zygote nuclear membrane fusion.
Lete, Marta G; Byrne, Richard D; Alonso, Alicia; Poccia, Dominic; Larijani, Banafshé
2017-01-15
Regulation of nuclear envelope dynamics is an important example of the universal phenomena of membrane fusion. The signalling molecules involved in nuclear membrane fusion might also be conserved during the formation of both pronuclear and zygote nuclear envelopes in the fertilised egg. Here, we determine that class-I phosphoinositide 3-kinases (PI3Ks) are needed for in vitro nuclear envelope formation. We show that, in vivo, PtdIns(3,4,5)P 3 is transiently located in vesicles around the male pronucleus at the time of nuclear envelope formation, and around male and female pronuclei before membrane fusion. We illustrate that class-I PI3K activity is also necessary for fusion of the female and male pronuclear membranes. We demonstrate, using coincidence amplified Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) monitored using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM), a protein-lipid interaction of Rab7 GTPase and PtdIns(3,4,5)P 3 that occurs during pronuclear membrane fusion to create the zygote nuclear envelope. We present a working model, which includes several molecular steps in the pathways controlling fusion of nuclear envelope membranes. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
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Creating a Lunar EVA Work Envelope
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Griffin, Brand N.; Howard, Robert; Rajulu, Sudhakar; Smitherman, David
2009-01-01
A work envelope has been defined for weightless Extravehicular Activity (EVA) based on the Space Shuttle Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), but there is no equivalent for planetary operations. The weightless work envelope is essential for planning all EVA tasks because it determines the location of removable parts, making sure they are within reach and visibility of the suited crew member. In addition, using the envelope positions the structural hard points for foot restraints that allow placing both hands on the job and provides a load path for reacting forces. EVA operations are always constrained by time. Tasks are carefully planned to ensure the crew has enough breathing oxygen, cooling water, and battery power. Planning first involves computers using a virtual work envelope to model tasks, next suited crew members in a simulated environment refine the tasks. For weightless operations, this process is well developed, but planetary EVA is different and no work envelope has been defined. The primary difference between weightless and planetary work envelopes is gravity. It influences anthropometry, horizontal and vertical mobility, and reaction load paths and introduces effort into doing "overhead" work. Additionally, the use of spacesuits other than the EMU, and their impacts on range of motion, must be taken into account. This paper presents the analysis leading to a concept for a planetary EVA work envelope with emphasis on lunar operations. There is some urgency in creating this concept because NASA has begun building and testing development hardware for the lunar surface, including rovers, habitats and cargo off-loading equipment. Just as with microgravity operations, a lunar EVA work envelope is needed to guide designers in the formative stages of the program with the objective of avoiding difficult and costly rework.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
VandeVen, C.; Weiss, S. B.
2001-01-01
Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.
2017-12-01
The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.
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Perception of stochastic envelopes by normal-hearing and cochlear-implant listeners
Gomersall, Philip A.; Turner, Richard E.; Baguley, David M.; Deeks, John M.; Gockel, Hedwig E.; Carlyon, Robert P.
2016-01-01
We assessed auditory sensitivity to three classes of temporal-envelope statistics (modulation depth, modulation rate, and comodulation) that are important for the perception of ‘sound textures’. The textures were generated by a probabilistic model that prescribes the temporal statistics of a selected number of modulation envelopes, superimposed onto noise carriers. Discrimination thresholds were measured for normal-hearing (NH) listeners and users of a MED-EL pulsar cochlear implant (CI), for separate manipulations of the average rate and modulation depth of the envelope in each frequency band of the stimulus, and of the co-modulation between bands. Normal-hearing (NH) listeners' discrimination of envelope rate was similar for baseline modulation rates of 5 and 34 Hz, and much poorer than previously reported for sinusoidally amplitude-modulated sounds. In contrast, discrimination of model parameters that controlled modulation depth was poorer at the lower baseline rate, consistent with the idea that, at the lower rate, subjects get fewer ‘looks’ at the relevant information when comparing stimuli differing in modulation depth. NH listeners could discriminate differences in co-modulation across bands; a multidimensional scaling study revealed that this was likely due to genuine across-frequency processing, rather than within-channel cues. CI users' discrimination performance was worse overall than for NH listeners, but showed a similar dependence on stimulus parameters. PMID:26706708
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The Baldwin-Lomax model for separated and wake flows using the entropy envelope concept
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brock, J. S.; Ng, W. F.
1992-01-01
Implementation of the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic turbulence model is difficult and ambiguous within flows characterized by strong viscous-inviscid interactions and flow separations. A new method of implementation is proposed which uses an entropy envelope concept and is demonstrated to ensure the proper evaluation of modeling parameters. The method is simple, computationally fast, and applicable to both wake and boundary layer flows. The method is general, making it applicable to any turbulence model which requires the automated determination of the proper maxima of a vorticity-based function. The new method is evalulated within two test cases involving strong viscous-inviscid interaction.
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Flight Test of L1 Adaptive Control Law: Offset Landings and Large Flight Envelope Modeling Work
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gregory, Irene M.; Xargay, Enric; Cao, Chengyu; Hovakimyan, Naira
2011-01-01
This paper presents new results of a flight test of the L1 adaptive control architecture designed to directly compensate for significant uncertain cross-coupling in nonlinear systems. The flight test was conducted on the subscale turbine powered Generic Transport Model that is an integral part of the Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research system at the NASA Langley Research Center. The results presented include control law evaluation for piloted offset landing tasks as well as results in support of nonlinear aerodynamic modeling and real-time dynamic modeling of the departure-prone edges of the flight envelope.
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Predictive model for CO2 generation and decay in building envelopes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aglan, Heshmat A.
2003-01-01
Understanding carbon dioxide generation and decay patterns in buildings with high occupancy levels is useful to identify their indoor air quality, air change rates, percent fresh air makeup, occupancy pattern, and how a variable air volume system to off-set undesirable CO2 level can be modulated. A mathematical model governing the generation and decay of CO2 in building envelopes with forced ventilation due to high occupancy is developed. The model has been verified experimentally in a newly constructed energy efficient healthy house. It was shown that the model accurately predicts the CO2 concentration at any time during the generation and decay processes.
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A smart growth evaluation model based on data envelopment analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Xiaokun; Guan, Yongyi
2018-04-01
With the rapid spread of urbanization, smart growth (SG) has attracted plenty of attention from all over the world. In this paper, by the establishment of index system for smart growth, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was suggested to evaluate the SG level of the current growth situation in cities. In order to further improve the information of both radial direction and non-radial detection, we introduced the non-Archimedean infinitesimal to form C2GS2 control model. Finally, we evaluated the SG level in Canberra and identified a series of problems, which can verify the applicability of the model and provide us more improvement information.
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Thermal and Energy Performance of Conditioned Building Due To Insulated Sloped Roof
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Irwan, Suhandi Syiful; Ahmed, Azni Zain; Zakaria, Nor Zaini; Ibrahim, Norhati
2010-07-01
For low-rise buildings in equatorial region, the roof is exposed to solar radiation longer than other parts of the envelope. Roofs are to be designed to reject heat and moderate the thermal impact. These are determined by the design and construction of the roofing system. The pitch of roof and the properties of construction affect the heat gain into the attic and subsequently the indoor temperature of the living spaces underneath. This finally influences the thermal comfort conditions of naturally ventilated buildings and cooling load of conditioned buildings. This study investigated the effect of insulated sloping roof on thermal energy performance of the building. A whole-building thermal energy computer simulation tool, Integrated Environmental Solution (IES), was used for the modelling and analyses. A building model with dimension of 4.0 m × 4.0 m × 3.0 m was designed with insulated roof and conventional construction for other parts of the envelope. A 75 mm conductive insulation material with thermal conductivity (k-value) of 0.034 Wm-1K-1 was installed underneath the roof tiles. The building was modelled with roof pitch angles of 0° , 15°, 30°, 45°, 60° and simulated for the month of August in Malaysian climate conditions. The profile for attic temperature, indoor temperature and cooling load were downloaded and evaluated. The optimum roof pitch angle for best thermal performance and energy saving was identified. The results show the pitch angle of 0° is able to mitigate the thermal impact to provide the best thermal condition with optimum energy savings. The maximum temperature difference between insulated and non-insulted roof for attic (AtticA-B) and indoor condition (IndoorA-B) is +7.8 °C and 0.4 °C respectively with an average energy monthly savings of 3.9 %.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoo, S. H.
2017-12-01
Monitoring seismologists have successfully used seismic coda for event discrimination and yield estimation for over a decade. In practice seismologists typically analyze long-duration, S-coda signals with high signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) at regional and teleseismic distances, since the single back-scattering model reasonably predicts decay of the late coda. However, seismic monitoring requirements are shifting towards smaller, locally recorded events that exhibit low SNR and short signal lengths. To be successful at characterizing events recorded at local distances, we must utilize the direct-phase arrivals, as well as the earlier part of the coda, which is dominated by multiple forward scattering. To remedy this problem, we have developed a new hybrid method known as full-waveform envelope template matching to improve predicted envelope fits over the entire waveform and account for direct-wave and early coda complexity. We accomplish this by including a multiple forward-scattering approximation in the envelope modeling of the early coda. The new hybrid envelope templates are designed to fit local and regional full waveforms and produce low-variance amplitude estimates, which will improve yield estimation and discrimination between earthquakes and explosions. To demonstrate the new technique, we applied our full-waveform envelope template-matching method to the six known North Korean (DPRK) underground nuclear tests and four aftershock events following the September 2017 test. We successfully discriminated the event types and estimated the yield for all six nuclear tests. We also applied the same technique to the 2015 Tianjin explosions in China, and another suspected low-yield explosion at the DPRK test site on May 12, 2010. Our results show that the new full-waveform envelope template-matching method significantly improves upon longstanding single-scattering coda prediction techniques. More importantly, the new method allows monitoring seismologists to extend coda-based techniques to lower magnitude thresholds and low-yield local explosions.
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Taxon-specific aerosolization of bacteria and viruses in an experimental ocean-atmosphere mesocosm.
Michaud, Jennifer M; Thompson, Luke R; Kaul, Drishti; Espinoza, Josh L; Richter, R Alexander; Xu, Zhenjiang Zech; Lee, Christopher; Pham, Kevin M; Beall, Charlotte M; Malfatti, Francesca; Azam, Farooq; Knight, Rob; Burkart, Michael D; Dupont, Christopher L; Prather, Kimberly A
2018-05-22
Ocean-derived, airborne microbes play important roles in Earth's climate system and human health, yet little is known about factors controlling their transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. Here, we study microbiomes of isolated sea spray aerosol (SSA) collected in a unique ocean-atmosphere facility and demonstrate taxon-specific aerosolization of bacteria and viruses. These trends are conserved within taxonomic orders and classes, and temporal variation in aerosolization is similarly shared by related taxa. We observe enhanced transfer into SSA of Actinobacteria, certain Gammaproteobacteria, and lipid-enveloped viruses; conversely, Flavobacteriia, some Alphaproteobacteria, and Caudovirales are generally under-represented in SSA. Viruses do not transfer to SSA as efficiently as bacteria. The enrichment of mycolic acid-coated Corynebacteriales and lipid-enveloped viruses (inferred from genomic comparisons) suggests that hydrophobic properties increase transport to the sea surface and SSA. Our results identify taxa relevant to atmospheric processes and a framework to further elucidate aerosolization mechanisms influencing microbial and viral transport pathways.
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Dredge-up and Envelope Burning in Intermediate-Mass Giants of Very Low Metallicity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herwig, Falk
2004-04-01
The evolution of intermediate-mass stars at very low metallicity during their final thermal pulse asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase is studied in detail. As representative examples, models with initial masses of 4 and 5Msolar and with a metallicity of Z=0.0001 ([Fe/H]~-2.3) are discussed. The one-dimensional stellar structure and evolution model includes time- and depth-dependent overshooting motivated by hydrodynamic simulations, as well as a full nuclear network and time-dependent mixing. Particular attention is given to high time and space resolution to avoid numerical artifacts related to third dredge-up and hot bottom burning predictions. The model calculations predict very efficient third dredge-up that mixes the envelope with the entire intershell layer or a large fraction thereof and in some cases penetrates into the C/O core below the He shell. In all cases primary oxygen is mixed into the envelope. The models predict efficient envelope burning during the interpulse phase. Depending on the envelope-burning temperature, oxygen is destroyed to varying degrees. The combined effect of dredge-up and envelope burning does not lead to any significant oxygen depletion in any of the cases considered in this study. The large dredge-up efficiency in our model is closely related to the particular properties of the H shell during the dredge-up phase in low-metallicity very metal-poor stars, which is followed here over many thermal pulses. During the dredge-up phase, the temperature just below the convective boundary is large enough for protons to burn vigorously when they are brought into the C-rich environment below the convection boundary by the time- and depth-dependent overshooting. H-burning luminosities of 105 to ~2×106Lsolar are generated. C, and to lesser degree O, is transformed into N in this dredge-up overshooting layer and enters the envelope. The global effect on the CNO abundance is similar to that of hot bottom burning. If the overshoot efficiency is larger, then dredge-up H burning causes a further increase in the dredge-up efficiency. After some thermal pulses, the dredge-up proceeds through the He shell and into the CO core beneath. Then neutrons may not be released from 13C in radiative conditions during the interpulse phase because of the scarcity of α-particles for the 13C(α,n)16O reactions. Conditions for the s-process are discussed qualitatively. The abundance evolution of H, He, C, N, O, and Na is described. Finally, the model predictions for sodium and oxygen are compared with observed abundances. The notion that massive AGB stars are the origin of the O-Na abundance anticorrelation in globular cluster giants is not consistent with the model predictions of this study. The abundance of the C-rich extremely metal-poor binaries LP 625-44, CS 29497-030, and HE 0024-2523 is discussed.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Streher, A. S.; Cordeiro, C. L. O.; Silva, T. S. F.
2017-12-01
Mapping environmental envelopes onto geographical space has been classically important for understanding biogeographical patterns. Knowing the biotic and abiotic limits defining these envelopes, we can better understand the requirements limiting species distributions. Most present efforts in this regard have focused on single-species distribution models, but the current breadth and accessibility of quantitative, spatially explicit environmental information can also be explored from an environment-first perspective. We thus used remote sensing to determine the occurrence of environmental discontinuities in the Amazon region and evaluated if such discontinuities may act as barriers to determine species distribution and range limits, forming clear environmental envelopes. We combined data on topography (SRTM), precipitation (CHIRPS), vegetation descriptors (PALSAR-1 backscattering, biomass, NDVI) and temperature (MODIS), using object-based image analysis and unsupervised learning to map environmental envelopes. We identified 14 environmental envelopes for the Amazon sensu latissimo region, mainly delimited by changes in vegetation, topography and precipitation. The resulting envelopes were compared to the distribution of 120 species of Trogonidae, Galbulidae, Bucconidae, Cebidae, Hylidae and Lecythidaceae, amounting to 22,649 occurrence records within the Amazonregion. We determined species prevalence in each envelope by calculating the ratio between species relative frequency per envelope and envelope relative frequency (area) in the complete map. Values closer to 1 indicate a high degree of prevalence. We found strong envelope associations (prevalence > 0.5) for 20 species (17% of analyzed taxa). Although several biogeographical and ecological factors will influence the distribution of a species, our results show that not only geographical barriers, but also modern environmental discontinuities may limit the distribution of some species., and may have also done so in the past. Our work also highlights the environmental complexity of the Amazon region, often considered as "environmentally homogeneous", and shows how environmental mapping can contribute to better understanding of the processes explaining the current assembly and distribution of Amazon biodiversity.
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Hygrothermal Simulation: A Tool for Building Envelope Design Analysis
Samuel V. Glass; Anton TenWolde; Samuel L. Zelinka
2013-01-01
Is it possible to gauge the risk of moisture problems while designing the building envelope? This article provides a brief introduction to computer-based hygrothermal (heat and moisture) simulation, shows how simulation can be useful as a design tool, and points out a number of im-portant considerations regarding model inputs and limita-tions. Hygrothermal simulation...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-11-20
... Envelope Protection: High Speed Limiting AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice... inadvertently or intentionally exceeding a speed approximately equivalent to V FC or attaining V DF . Current Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR) part 25 do not relate to a high speed limiter that might...
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Gu, Yingxin; Howard, Daniel M.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, Li
2012-01-01
Flux tower networks (e. g., AmeriFlux, Agriflux) provide continuous observations of ecosystem exchanges of carbon (e. g., net ecosystem exchange), water vapor (e. g., evapotranspiration), and energy between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term time series of flux tower data are essential for studying and understanding terrestrial carbon cycles, ecosystem services, and climate changes. Currently, there are 13 flux towers located within the Great Plains (GP). The towers are sparsely distributed and do not adequately represent the varieties of vegetation cover types, climate conditions, and geophysical and biophysical conditions in the GP. This study assessed how well the available flux towers represent the environmental conditions or "ecological envelopes" across the GP and identified optimal locations for future flux towers in the GP. Regression-based remote sensing and weather-driven net ecosystem production (NEP) models derived from different extrapolation ranges (10 and 50%) were used to identify areas where ecological conditions were poorly represented by the flux tower sites and years previously used for mapping grassland fluxes. The optimal lands suitable for future flux towers within the GP were mapped. Results from this study provide information to optimize the usefulness of future flux towers in the GP and serve as a proxy for the uncertainty of the NEP map.
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Coronal Element Abundances of the Post-Common Envelope Binary V471 Tauri with ASCA
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Still, Martin; Hussain, Gaitee; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
We report on ASCA observations of the coronally active companion star in the post-common envelope binary V471 Tau. While it would be prudent to check the following results with grating spectroscopy, we find that a single-temperature plasma model does not fit the data. Two temperature models with variable abundances indicate that Fe is underabundant compared to the Hyades photospheric mean, whereas, the high first ionization potential element Ne is overabundant. This is indicative of the inverse first ionization effect, believed to result from the fractionation of ionized material by the magnetic field in the upper atmosphere of the star. Evolutionary calculations indicate that there should be no peculiar abundances on the companion star resulting from the common envelope epoch. Indeed, we find no evidence for peculiar abundances, although uncertainties are high.
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The Eclipsing Central Stars of the Planetary Nebulae Lo 16 and PHR J1040-5417
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hillwig, Todd C.; Frew, David; Jones, David; Crispo, Danielle
2017-01-01
Binary central stars of planetary nebula are a valuable tool in understanding common envelope evolution. In these cases both the resulting close binary system and the expanding envelope (the planetary nebula) can be studied directly. In order to compare observed systems with common envelope evolution models we need to determine precise physical parameters of the binaries and the nebulae. Eclipsing central stars provide us with the best opportunity to determine high precision values for mass, radius, and temperature of the component stars in these close binaries. We present photometry and spectroscopy for two of these eclipsing systems; the central stars of Lo 16 and PHR 1040-5417. Using light curves and radial velocity curves along with binary modeling we provide physical parameters for the stars in both of these systems.
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Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change.
Fensham, Roderick J; Fraser, Josie; MacDermott, Harry J; Firn, Jenifer
2015-10-01
Predicting the consequences of climate change on forest systems is difficult because trees may display species-specific responses to exaggerated droughts that may not be reflected by the climatic envelope of their geographic range. Furthermore, few studies have examined the postdrought recovery potential of drought-susceptible tree species. This study develops a robust ranking of the drought susceptibility of 21 tree species based on their mortality after two droughts (1990s and 2000s) in the savanna of north-eastern Australia. Drought-induced mortality was positively related to species dominance, negatively related to the ratio of postdrought seedlings to adults and had no relationship to the magnitude of extreme drought within the species current geographic ranges. These results suggest that predicting the consequences of exaggerated drought on species' geographic ranges is difficult, but that dominant species like Eucalyptus with relatively slow rates of population recovery and dispersal are the most susceptible. The implications for savanna ecosystems are lower tree densities and basal area. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States
Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime
2016-08-11
Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects.Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lazarian, A.; Esquivel, A.; Crutcher, R.
2012-10-01
Recent observational results for magnetic fields in molecular clouds reviewed by Crutcher seem to be inconsistent with the predictions of the ambipolar diffusion theory of star formation. These include the measured decrease in mass to flux ratio between envelopes and cores, the failure to detect any self-gravitating magnetically subcritical clouds, the determination of the flat probability distribution function (PDF) of the total magnetic field strengths implying that there are many clouds with very weak magnetic fields, and the observed scaling Bvpropρ2/3 that implies gravitational contraction with weak magnetic fields. We consider the problem of magnetic field evolution in turbulent molecular clouds and discuss the process of magnetic field diffusion mediated by magnetic reconnection. For this process that we termed "reconnection diffusion," we provide a simple physical model and explain that this process is inevitable in view of the present-day understanding of MHD turbulence. We address the issue of the expected magnetization of cores and envelopes in the process of star formation and show that reconnection diffusion provides an efficient removal of magnetic flux that depends only on the properties of MHD turbulence in the core and the envelope. We show that as the amplitude of turbulence as well as the scale of turbulent motions decrease from the envelope to the core of the cloud, the diffusion of the magnetic field is faster in the envelope. As a result, the magnetic flux trapped during the collapse in the envelope is being released faster than the flux trapped in the core, resulting in much weaker fields in envelopes than in cores, as observed. We provide simple semi-analytical model calculations which support this conclusion and qualitatively agree with the observational results. Magnetic reconnection is also consistent with the lack of subcritical self-gravitating clouds, with the observed flat PDF of field strengths, and with the scaling of field strength with density. In addition, we demonstrate that the reconnection diffusion process can account for the empirical Larson relations and list a few other implications of the reconnection diffusion concept. We argue that magnetic reconnection provides a solution to the magnetic flux problem of star formation that agrees better with observations than the long-standing ambipolar diffusion paradigm. Due to the illustrative nature of our simplified model we do not seek quantitative agreement, but discuss the complementary nature of our approach to the three-dimensional MHD numerical simulations.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kostov, Veselin B.; Moore, Keavin; Tamayo, Daniel; Jayawardhana, Ray; Rinehart, Stephen A.
2016-01-01
Inspired by the recent Kepler discoveries of circumbinary planets orbiting nine close binary stars, we explore the fate of the former as the latter evolve off the main sequence. We combine binary star evolution models with dynamical simulations to study the orbital evolution of these planets as their hosts undergo common-envelope stages, losing in the process a tremendous amount of mass on dynamical timescales. Five of the systems experience at least one Roche-lobe overflow and common-envelope stages (Kepler-1647 experiences three), and the binary stars either shrink to very short orbits or coalesce; two systems trigger a double-degenerate supernova explosion. Kepler's circumbinary planets predominantly remain gravitationally bound at the end of the common-envelope phase, migrate to larger orbits, and may gain significant eccentricity; their orbital expansion can be more than an order of magnitude and can occur over the course of a single planetary orbit. The orbits these planets can reach are qualitatively consistent with those of the currently known post-common-envelope, eclipse-time variations circumbinary candidates. Our results also show that circumbinary planets can experience both modes of orbital expansion (adiabatic and non-adiabatic) if their host binaries undergo more than one common-envelope stage; multiplanet circumbinary systems like Kepler-47 can experience both modes during the same common-envelope stage. Additionally, unlike Mercury orbiting the Sun, a circumbinary planet with the same semi-major axis can survive the common envelope evolution of a close binary star with a total mass of 1 Solar Mass.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.
2013-12-01
Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.
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Abundances in red giant stars - Carbon and oxygen isotopes in carbon-rich molecular envelopes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wannier, P. G.; Sahai, R.
1987-01-01
Millimeter-wave observations have been made of isotopically substituted CO toward the envelopes of 11 carbon-rich stars. In every case, C-13O was detected and model calculations were used to estimate the C-12/C-13 abundance ratio. C-17O was detected toward three, and possibly four, envelopes, with sensitive upper limits for two others. The CO-18 variant was detected in two envelopes. New results include determinations of oxygen isotopic ratios in the two carbon-rich protoplanetary nebulae CRL 26688 and CRL 618. As with other classes of red giant stars, the carbon-rich giants seem to be significantly, though variably, enriched in O-17. These results, in combination with observations in interstellar molecular clouds, indicate that current knowledge of stellar production of the CNO nuclides is far from satisfactory.
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Carrier-Envelope Phase Effects in Plasma-Based Electron Acceleration with Few-Cycle Laser Pulses
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nerush, E. N.; Kostyukov, I. Yu.
2009-07-17
Carrier-envelope phase effects during the interaction of relativistically intense few-cycle laser pulses with a plasma are studied in the 'bubble' regime when an electron cavity (bubble) is formed behind the pulse. We show that for few-cycle laser pulses the cavity shape becomes asymmetric and depends strongly on the carrier-envelope phase. The carrier-envelope phase varies when the laser pulse propagates in plasma, which causes transverse oscillations of the cavity. Furthermore, the beam of electrons trapped by the cavity becomes modulated in the polarization plane. To describe these effects we derive an analytical model extended beyond the ponderomotive approximation. The degree ofmore » plasma cavity asymmetry as a function of the laser-plasma parameters is calculated. The obtained results are verified by particle-in-cell simulations.« less
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Structural analysis of herpes simplex virus by optical super-resolution imaging
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laine, Romain F.; Albecka, Anna; van de Linde, Sebastian; Rees, Eric J.; Crump, Colin M.; Kaminski, Clemens F.
2015-01-01
Herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1) is one of the most widespread pathogens among humans. Although the structure of HSV-1 has been extensively investigated, the precise organization of tegument and envelope proteins remains elusive. Here we use super-resolution imaging by direct stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (dSTORM) in combination with a model-based analysis of single-molecule localization data, to determine the position of protein layers within virus particles. We resolve different protein layers within individual HSV-1 particles using multi-colour dSTORM imaging and discriminate envelope-anchored glycoproteins from tegument proteins, both in purified virions and in virions present in infected cells. Precise characterization of HSV-1 structure was achieved by particle averaging of purified viruses and model-based analysis of the radial distribution of the tegument proteins VP16, VP1/2 and pUL37, and envelope protein gD. From this data, we propose a model of the protein organization inside the tegument.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hashimoto, O.; Nakada, Y.; Onaka, T.; Kamijo, F.; Tanabe, T.
1990-01-01
Spherical dust envelope models of red giant stars are constructed by solving the radiative transfer equations of the generalized two-stream Eddington approximation. The IRAS observations of M giant stars which show the 10-micron silicate emission band in IRAS LRS spectra are explained by the models with the dirty silicate grains with K proportional to lambda exp -1.5 for lambda greather than 28 microns. Under the assumption of steady mass flow in the envelope, this model analysis gives the following conclusions: (1) the strength of the silicate emission peak at 10 microns is a good indicator of the mass loss rate of the star, (2) no stars with the 10-microns silicate emission feature are observed in the range of mass loss rate smaller than 7 x 10 to the -8th solar mass/yr, and (3) the characteristic time of the mass loss process of M stars does not exceed a few 10,000 years.
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Ginzburg-Landau equation as a heuristic model for generating rogue waves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lechuga, Antonio
2016-04-01
Envelope equations have many applications in the study of physical systems. Particularly interesting is the case 0f surface water waves. In steady conditions, laboratory experiments are carried out for multiple purposes either for researches or for practical problems. In both cases envelope equations are useful for understanding qualitative and quantitative results. The Ginzburg-Landau equation provides an excellent model for systems of that kind with remarkable patterns. Taking into account the above paragraph the main aim of our work is to generate waves in a water tank with almost a symmetric spectrum according to Akhmediev (2011) and thus, to produce a succession of rogue waves. The envelope of these waves gives us some patterns whose model is a type of Ginzburg-Landau equation, Danilov et al (1988). From a heuristic point of view the link between the experiment and the model is achieved. Further, the next step consists of changing generating parameters on the water tank and also the coefficients of the Ginzburg-Landau equation, Lechuga (2013) in order to reach a sufficient good approach.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slunyaev, Alexey; Klein, Marco; Clauss, Günther F.
2016-04-01
Envelope soliton solutions are key elements governing the nonlinear wave dynamics within a simplified theory for unidirectional weakly modulated weakly nonlinear wave groups on the water surface. Within integrable models the solitons preserve their structure in collisions with other waves; they do not disperse and can carry energy infinitively long. Steep and short soliton-like wave groups have been shown to exist in laboratory tests [1] and, even earlier, in numerical simulations [2, 3]. Thus, long-living wave groups may play important role in the dynamics of intense sea waves and wave-structure interactions. The solitary wave groups may change the wave statistics and can be taken into account when developing approaches for the deterministic forecasting of dangerous waves, including so-called rogue waves. An experimental campaign has been conducted in the wave basin of the Technical University of Berlin on simulations of intense solitary wave groups. The first successful experimental observation of intense envelope solitons took place in this facility [1]. The new experiments aimed at following main goals: 1) to reproduce intense envelope solitons with different carrier wave lengths; 2) to estimate the rate of envelope soliton dissipation; 3) to consider the reflection of envelope solitons on a vertical wall; 4) to consider head-on collisions of envelope solitons, and 5) to consider overtaking interactions of envelope solitons. Up to 9 wave gauges were used in each experimental run, which enabled registration of the surface movement at different distances from the wavemaker, at different locations across the wave flume and near the wall. Besides surface displacements, the group envelope shapes were directly recorded, with use of phase shifts applied to the modulated waves generated by the wavemaker. [1] A. Slunyaev, G.F. Clauss, M. Klein, M. Onorato, Simulations and experiments of short intense envelope solitons of surface water waves. Phys. Fluids 25, 067105 (2013). [2] A.I. Dyachenko, V.E. Zakharov, On the formation of freak waves on the surface of deep water. JETP Lett. 88, 307 (2008). [3] A.V. Slunyaev, Numerical simulation of "limiting" envelope solitons of gravity waves on deep water. JETP 109, 676 (2009).
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Chetnani, Bhaskar; Mondragón, Alfonso
2017-07-27
A T-box regulator or riboswitch actively monitors the levels of charged/uncharged tRNA and participates in amino acid homeostasis by regulating genes involved in their utilization or biosynthesis. It has an aptamer domain for cognate tRNA recognition and an expression platform to sense the charge state and modulate gene expression. These two conserved domains are connected by a variable linker that harbors additional secondary structural elements, such as Stem III. The structural basis for specific tRNA binding is known, but the structural basis for charge sensing and the role of other elements remains elusive. To gain new structural insights on the T-box mechanism, a molecular envelope was calculated from small angle X-ray scattering data for the Bacillus subtilis glyQS T-box riboswitch in complex with an uncharged tRNAGly. A structural model of an anti-terminated glyQS T-box in complex with its cognate tRNAGly was derived based on the molecular envelope. It shows the location and relative orientation of various secondary structural elements. The model was validated by comparing the envelopes of the wild-type complex and two variants. The structural model suggests that in addition to a possible regulatory role, Stem III could aid in preferential stabilization of the T-box anti-terminated state allowing read-through of regulated genes. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.
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Yokoi, Fumiaki; Dang, Mai T; Yang, Guang; Li, Jindong; Doroodchi, Atbin; Zhou, Tong; Li, Yuqing
2012-02-01
Myoclonus-dystonia (M-D) is a movement disorder characterized by myoclonic jerks with dystonia. DYT11 M-D is caused by mutations in SGCE which codes for ɛ-sarcoglycan. SGCE is maternally imprinted and paternally expressed. Abnormal nuclear envelope has been reported in mouse models of DYT1 generalized torsion dystonia. However, it is not known whether similar alterations occur in DYT11 M-D. We developed a mouse model of DYT11 M-D using paternally inherited Sgce heterozygous knockout (Sgce KO) mice and reported that they had myoclonus and motor coordination and learning deficits in the beam-walking test. However, the specific brain regions that contribute to these phenotypes have not been identified. Since ɛ-sarcoglycan is highly expressed in the cerebellar Purkinje cells, here we examined the nuclear envelope in these cells using a transmission electron microscope and found that they are abnormal in Sgce KO mice. Our results put DYT11 M-D in a growing family of nuclear envelopathies. To analyze the effect of loss of ɛ-sarcoglycan function in the cerebellar Purkinje cells, we produced paternally inherited cerebellar Purkinje cell-specific Sgce conditional knockout (Sgce pKO) mice. Sgce pKO mice showed motor learning deficits, while they did not show abnormal nuclear envelope in the cerebellar Purkinje cells, robust motor deficits, or myoclonus. The results suggest that ɛ-sarcoglycan in the cerebellar Purkinje cells contributes to the motor learning, while loss of ɛ-sarcoglycan in other brain regions may contribute to nuclear envelope abnormality, myoclonus and motor coordination deficits. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The Class 0 Protostar BHR71: Herschel Observations and Dust Continuum Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Yao-Lun; Evans, Neal J., II; Green, Joel D.; Dunham, Michael M.; Jørgensen, Jes K.
2017-02-01
We use Herschel spectrophotometry of BHR71, an embedded Class 0 protostar, to provide new constraints on its physical properties. We detect 645 (non-unique) spectral lines among all spatial pixels. At least 61 different spectral lines originate from the central region. A CO rotational diagram analysis shows four excitation temperature components, 43, 197, 397, and 1057 K. Low-J CO lines trace the outflow while the high-J CO lines are centered on the infrared source. The low-excitation emission lines of {{{H}}}2{{O}} trace the large-scale outflow, while the high-excitation emission lines trace a small-scale distribution around the equatorial plane. We model the envelope structure using the dust radiative transfer code, hyperion, incorporating rotational collapse, an outer static envelope, outflow cavity, and disk. The evolution of a rotating collapsing envelope can be constrained by the far-infrared/millimeter spectral energy distribution along with the azimuthally averaged radial intensity profile, and the structure of the outflow cavity plays a critical role at shorter wavelengths. Emission at 20-40 μm requires a cavity with a constant-density inner region and a power-law density outer region. The best-fit model has an envelope mass of 19 {M}⊙ inside a radius of 0.315 pc and a central luminosity of 18.8 {L}⊙ . The time since collapse began is 24,630-44,000 years, most likely around 36,000 years. The corresponding mass infall rate in the envelope (1.2 × 10-5 {M}⊙ {{yr}}-1) is comparable to the stellar mass accretion rate, while the mass-loss rate estimated from the CO outflow is 20% of the stellar mass accretion rate. We find no evidence for episodic accretion.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sato, Haruo; Fehler, Michael C.
2016-10-01
The envelope broadening and the peak delay of the S-wavelet of a small earthquake with increasing travel distance are results of scattering by random velocity inhomogeneities in the earth medium. As a simple mathematical model, Sato proposed a new stochastic synthesis of the scalar wavelet envelope in 3-D von Kármán type random media when the centre wavenumber of the wavelet is in the power-law spectral range of the random velocity fluctuation. The essential idea is to split the random medium spectrum into two components using the centre wavenumber as a reference: the long-scale (low-wavenumber spectral) component produces the peak delay and the envelope broadening by multiple scattering around the forward direction; the short-scale (high-wavenumber spectral) component attenuates wave amplitude by wide angle scattering. The former is calculated by the Markov approximation based on the parabolic approximation and the latter is calculated by the Born approximation. Here, we extend the theory for the envelope synthesis of a wavelet in 2-D random media, which makes it easy to compare with finite difference (FD) simulation results. The synthetic wavelet envelope is analytically written by using the random medium parameters in the angular frequency domain. For the case that the power spectral density function of the random velocity fluctuation has a steep roll-off at large wavenumbers, the envelope broadening is small and frequency independent, and scattering attenuation is weak. For the case of a small roll-off, however, the envelope broadening is large and increases with frequency, and the scattering attenuation is strong and increases with frequency. As a preliminary study, we compare synthetic wavelet envelopes with the average of FD simulation wavelet envelopes in 50 synthesized random media, which are characterized by the RMS fractional velocity fluctuation ε = 0.05, correlation scale a = 5 km and the background wave velocity V0 = 4 km s-1. We use the radiation of a 2 Hz Ricker wavelet from a point source. For all the cases of von Kármán order κ = 0.1, 0.5 and 1, we find the synthetic wavelet envelopes are a good match to the characteristics of FD simulation wavelet envelopes in a time window starting from the onset through the maximum peak to the time when the amplitude decreases to half the peak amplitude.
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Marshall, Wallace F.; Fung, Jennifer C.
2016-01-01
The recognition and pairing of homologous chromosomes during meiosis is a complex physical and molecular process involving a combination of polymer dynamics and molecular recognition events. Two highly conserved features of meiotic chromosome behavior are the attachment of telomeres to the nuclear envelope and the active random motion of telomeres driven by their interaction with cytoskeletal motor proteins. Both of these features have been proposed to facilitate the process of homolog pairing, but exactly what role these features play in meiosis remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the roles of active motion and nuclear envelope tethering using a Brownian dynamics simulation in which meiotic chromosomes are represented by a Rouse polymer model subjected to tethering and active forces at the telomeres. We find that tethering telomeres to the nuclear envelope slows down pairing relative to the rates achieved by un-attached chromosomes, but that randomly-directed active forces applied to the telomeres speeds up pairing dramatically in a manner that depends on the statistical properties of the telomere force fluctuations. The increased rate of initial pairing cannot be explained by stretching out of the chromosome conformation but instead seems to correlate with anomalous diffusion of sub-telomeric regions. PMID:27046097
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sparks, W. M.; Starrfield, S.; Truran, J. W.
1978-01-01
The paper reports use of a Lagrangian implicit hydrodynamics computer code incorporating a full nuclear-reaction network to follow a thermonuclear runaway in the hydrogen-rich envelope of a 1.25 solar-mass white dwarf. In this evolutionary sequence the envelope was assumed to be of normal (solar) composition and the resulting outburst closely resembles that of the slow nova HR Del. In contrast, previous CNO-enhanced models resemble fast nova outbursts. The slow-nova model ejects material by radiation pressure when the high luminosity of the rekindled hydrogen shell source exceeds the local Eddington luminosity of the outer layers. This is in contrast to the fast nova outburst where ejection is caused by the decay of the beta(+)-unstable nuclei. Nevertheless, radiation pressure probably plays a major role in ejecting material from the fast nova remnants. Therefore, the sequence from slow to fast novae can be interpreted as a sequence of white dwarfs with increasing amounts of enhanced CNO nuclei in their hydrogen envelopes, although other parameters such as the white-dwarf mass and accretion rate probably contribute to the observed variation between novae.
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Noninvasive scoring system for significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hong, Mei-Zhu; Ye, Linglong; Jin, Li-Xin; Ren, Yan-Dan; Yu, Xiao-Fang; Liu, Xiao-Bin; Zhang, Ru-Mian; Fang, Kuangnan; Pan, Jin-Shui
2017-03-01
Although a liver stiffness measurement-based model can precisely predict significant intrahepatic inflammation, transient elastography is not commonly available in a primary care center. Additionally, high body mass index and bilirubinemia have notable effects on the accuracy of transient elastography. The present study aimed to create a noninvasive scoring system for the prediction of intrahepatic inflammatory activity related to chronic hepatitis B, without the aid of transient elastography. A total of 396 patients with chronic hepatitis B were enrolled in the present study. Liver biopsies were performed, liver histology was scored using the Scheuer scoring system, and serum markers and liver function were investigated. Inflammatory activity scoring models were constructed for both hepatitis B envelope antigen (+) and hepatitis B envelope antigen (-) patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve were 86.00%, 84.80%, 62.32%, 95.39%, and 0.9219, respectively, in the hepatitis B envelope antigen (+) group and 91.89%, 89.86%, 70.83%, 97.64%, and 0.9691, respectively, in the hepatitis B envelope antigen (-) group. Significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B can be predicted with satisfactory accuracy by using our logistic regression-based scoring system.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marshall, Wallace F.; Fung, Jennifer C.
2016-04-01
The recognition and pairing of homologous chromosomes during meiosis is a complex physical and molecular process involving a combination of polymer dynamics and molecular recognition events. Two highly conserved features of meiotic chromosome behavior are the attachment of telomeres to the nuclear envelope and the active random motion of telomeres driven by their interaction with cytoskeletal motor proteins. Both of these features have been proposed to facilitate the process of homolog pairing, but exactly what role these features play in meiosis remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the roles of active motion and nuclear envelope tethering using a Brownian dynamics simulation in which meiotic chromosomes are represented by a Rouse polymer model subjected to tethering and active forces at the telomeres. We find that tethering telomeres to the nuclear envelope slows down pairing relative to the rates achieved by unattached chromosomes, but that randomly directed active forces applied to the telomeres speed up pairing dramatically in a manner that depends on the statistical properties of the telomere force fluctuations. The increased rate of initial pairing cannot be explained by stretching out of the chromosome conformation but instead seems to correlate with anomalous diffusion of sub-telomeric regions.
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Envelope of coda waves for a double couple source due to non-linear elasticity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Calisto, Ignacia; Bataille, Klaus
2014-10-01
Non-linear elasticity has recently been considered as a source of scattering, therefore contributing to the coda of seismic waves, in particular for the case of explosive sources. This idea is analysed further here, theoretically solving the expression for the envelope of coda waves generated by a point moment tensor in order to compare with earthquake data. For weak non-linearities, one can consider each point of the non-linear medium as a source of scattering within a homogeneous and linear medium, for which Green's functions can be used to compute the total displacement of scattered waves. These sources of scattering have specific radiation patterns depending on the incident and scattered P or S waves, respectively. In this approach, the coda envelope depends on three scalar parameters related to the specific non-linearity of the medium; however these parameters only change the scale of the coda envelope. The shape of the coda envelope is sensitive to both the source time function and the intrinsic attenuation. We compare simulations using this model with data from earthquakes in Taiwan, with a good fit.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rahman, Ata-ur-; Kerr, Michael Mc; El-Taibany, Wael F.; Kourakis, Ioannis; Qamar, A.
2015-02-01
A semirelativistic fluid model is employed to describe the nonlinear amplitude modulation of low-frequency (ionic scale) electrostatic waves in an unmagnetized electron-positron-ion plasma. Electrons and positrons are assumed to be degenerated and inertialess, whereas ions are warm and classical. A multiscale perturbation method is used to derive a nonlinear Schrödinger equation for the envelope amplitude, based on which the occurrence of modulational instability is investigated in detail. Various types of localized ion acoustic excitations are shown to exist, in the form of either bright type envelope solitons (envelope pulses) or dark-type envelope solitons (voids, holes). The plasma configurational parameters (namely, the relativistic degeneracy parameter, the positron concentration, and the ionic temperature) are shown to affect the conditions for modulational instability significantly, in fact modifying the associated threshold as well as the instability growth rate. In particular, the relativistic degeneracy parameter leads to an enhancement of the modulational instability mechanism. Furthermore, the effect of different relevant plasma parameters on the characteristics (amplitude, width) of these envelope solitary structures is also presented in detail. Finally, the occurrence of extreme amplitude excitation (rogue waves) is also discussed briefly. Our results aim at elucidating the formation and dynamics of nonlinear electrostatic excitations in superdense astrophysical regimes.
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Kates, James M; Arehart, Kathryn H
2015-10-01
This paper uses mutual information to quantify the relationship between envelope modulation fidelity and perceptual responses. Data from several previous experiments that measured speech intelligibility, speech quality, and music quality are evaluated for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired listeners. A model of the auditory periphery is used to generate envelope signals, and envelope modulation fidelity is calculated using the normalized cross-covariance of the degraded signal envelope with that of a reference signal. Two procedures are used to describe the envelope modulation: (1) modulation within each auditory frequency band and (2) spectro-temporal processing that analyzes the modulation of spectral ripple components fit to successive short-time spectra. The results indicate that low modulation rates provide the highest information for intelligibility, while high modulation rates provide the highest information for speech and music quality. The low-to-mid auditory frequencies are most important for intelligibility, while mid frequencies are most important for speech quality and high frequencies are most important for music quality. Differences between the spectral ripple components used for the spectro-temporal analysis were not significant in five of the six experimental conditions evaluated. The results indicate that different modulation-rate and auditory-frequency weights may be appropriate for indices designed to predict different types of perceptual relationships.
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Bailer, Susanne M.
2017-11-25
Herpesviral capsid assembly is initiated in the nucleoplasm of the infected cell. Size constraints require that newly formed viral nucleocapsids leave the nucleus by an evolutionarily conserved vescular transport mechanism called nuclear egress. Mature capsids released from the nucleoplasm are engaged in a membrane-mediated budding process, composed of primary envelopment at the inner nuclear membrane and de-envelopment at the outer nuclear membrane. Once in the cytoplasm, the capsids receive their secondary envelope for maturation into infectious virions. Two viral proteins conserved throughout the herpesvirus family, the integral membrane protein pUL34 and the phosphoprotein pUL31, form the nuclear egress complex required for capsid transport from the infected nucleus to the cytoplasm. Formation of the nuclear egress complex results in budding of membrane vesicles revealing its function as minimal virus-encoded membrane budding and scission machinery. The recent structural analysis unraveled details of the heterodimeric nuclear egress complex and the hexagonal coat it forms at the inside of budding vesicles to drive primary envelopment. With this review, I would like to present the capsid-escort-model where pUL31 associates with capsids in nucleoplasmic replication compartments for escort to sites of primary envelopment thereby coupling capsid maturation and nuclear egress.
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Kates, James M.; Arehart, Kathryn H.
2015-01-01
This paper uses mutual information to quantify the relationship between envelope modulation fidelity and perceptual responses. Data from several previous experiments that measured speech intelligibility, speech quality, and music quality are evaluated for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired listeners. A model of the auditory periphery is used to generate envelope signals, and envelope modulation fidelity is calculated using the normalized cross-covariance of the degraded signal envelope with that of a reference signal. Two procedures are used to describe the envelope modulation: (1) modulation within each auditory frequency band and (2) spectro-temporal processing that analyzes the modulation of spectral ripple components fit to successive short-time spectra. The results indicate that low modulation rates provide the highest information for intelligibility, while high modulation rates provide the highest information for speech and music quality. The low-to-mid auditory frequencies are most important for intelligibility, while mid frequencies are most important for speech quality and high frequencies are most important for music quality. Differences between the spectral ripple components used for the spectro-temporal analysis were not significant in five of the six experimental conditions evaluated. The results indicate that different modulation-rate and auditory-frequency weights may be appropriate for indices designed to predict different types of perceptual relationships. PMID:26520329
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Discriminating Simulated Vocal Tremor Source Using Amplitude Modulation Spectra
Carbonell, Kathy M.; Lester, Rosemary A.; Story, Brad H.; Lotto, Andrew J.
2014-01-01
Objectives/Hypothesis Sources of vocal tremor are difficult to categorize perceptually and acoustically. This paper describes a preliminary attempt to discriminate vocal tremor sources through the use of spectral measures of the amplitude envelope. The hypothesis is that different vocal tremor sources are associated with distinct patterns of acoustic amplitude modulations. Study Design Statistical categorization methods (discriminant function analysis) were used to discriminate signals from simulated vocal tremor with different sources using only acoustic measures derived from the amplitude envelopes. Methods Simulations of vocal tremor were created by modulating parameters of a vocal fold model corresponding to oscillations of respiratory driving pressure (respiratory tremor), degree of vocal fold adduction (adductory tremor) and fundamental frequency of vocal fold vibration (F0 tremor). The acoustic measures were based on spectral analyses of the amplitude envelope computed across the entire signal and within select frequency bands. Results The signals could be categorized (with accuracy well above chance) in terms of the simulated tremor source using only measures of the amplitude envelope spectrum even when multiple sources of tremor were included. Conclusions These results supply initial support for an amplitude-envelope based approach to identify the source of vocal tremor and provide further evidence for the rich information about talker characteristics present in the temporal structure of the amplitude envelope. PMID:25532813
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Carbon chemistry of circumstellar envelopes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bieging, John H.
1990-01-01
The chemical composition of envelopes surrounding cool evolved stars, as determined from microwave spectroscopic observations, is reviewed. Emphasis is placed on recent observations with the new large mm-wavelength telescopes and interferometer arrays, and on new theoretical work, especially concerning ion-molecule chemistry of carbon-bearing in these envelopes. Thermal (as opposed to maser) emission lines are discussed. Much progress has been made in the past few years in the theoretical understanding of these objects. It is already clear, however, that observations with the new generation of mm-telescopes will require substantial improvements in the theoretical models to achieve a thorough understanding of the data now becoming available.
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Time-optimal Aircraft Pursuit-evasion with a Weapon Envelope Constraint
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Menon, P. K. A.
1990-01-01
The optimal pursuit-evasion problem between two aircraft including a realistic weapon envelope is analyzed using differential game theory. Six order nonlinear point mass vehicle models are employed and the inclusion of an arbitrary weapon envelope geometry is allowed. The performance index is a linear combination of flight time and the square of the vehicle acceleration. Closed form solution to this high-order differential game is then obtained using feedback linearization. The solution is in the form of a feedback guidance law together with a quartic polynomial for time-to-go. Due to its modest computational requirements, this nonlinear guidance law is useful for on-board real-time implementation.
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Single rotating stars and the formation of bipolar planetary nebula
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
García-Segura, G.; Villaver, E.; Langer, N.
2014-03-10
We have computed new stellar evolution models that include the effects of rotation and magnetic torques under different hypotheses. The goal is to test whether a single star can sustain the rotational velocities needed in the envelope for magnetohydrodynamical(MHD) simulations to shape bipolar planetary nebulae (PNe) when high mass-loss rates take place. Stellar evolution models with main sequence masses of 2.5 and 5 M {sub ☉} and initial rotational velocities of 250 km s{sup –1} have been followed through the PNe formation phase. We find that stellar cores have to be spun down using magnetic torques in order to reproducemore » the rotation rates observed for white dwarfs. During the asymptotic giant branch phase and beyond, the magnetic braking of the core has a practically null effect on increasing the rotational velocity of the envelope since the stellar angular momentum is efficiently removed by the wind. We have also tested the best possible case scenarios in rather non-physical contexts to give enough angular momentum to the envelope. We find that we cannot get the envelope of a single star to rotate at the speeds needed for MHD simulations to form bipolar PNe. We conclude that single stellar rotators are unlikely to be the progenitors of bipolar PNe under the current MHD model paradigm.« less
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Space charge induced resonance excitation in high intensity rings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cousineau, S.; Lee, S. Y.; Holmes, J. A.; Danilov, V.; Fedotov, A.
2003-03-01
We present a particle core model study of the space charge effect on high intensity synchrotron beams, with specific emphasis on the Proton Storage Ring (PSR) at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Our particle core model formulation includes realistic lattice focusing and dispersion. We transport both matched and mismatched beams through real lattice structure and compare the results with those of an equivalent uniform-focusing approximation. The effects of lattice structure and finite momentum spread on the resonance behavior are specifically targeted. Stroboscopic maps of the mismatched envelope are constructed and show high-order resonances and stochastic effects that dominate at high mismatch or high intensity. We observe the evolution of the envelope phase-space structure during a high intensity PSR beam accumulation. Finally, we examine the envelope-particle parametric resonance condition and discuss the possibility for halo growth in synchrotron beams due to this mechanism.
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Balmer line profiles for infalling T Tauri envelopes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Calvet, Nuria; Hartmann, Lee
1992-01-01
The possibility that the Balmer emission lines of T Tauri stars arise in infalling envelopes rather than winds is considered. Line profiles for the upper Balmer lines are presented for models with cone geometry, intended to simulate the basic features of magnetospheric accretion from a circumstellar disk. An escape probability treatment is used to determine line source functions in nonspherically symmetric geometry. Thermalization effects are found to produce nearly symmetric H-alpha line profiles at the same time the higher Balmer series lines exhibit inverse P Cygni profiles. The infall models produce centrally peaked emission line wings, in good agreement with observations of many T Tauri stars. It is suggested that the Balmer emission of many T Tauri stars may be produced in an infalling envelope, with blue shifted absorption contributed by an overlying wind. Some of the observed narrow absorption components with small blueshifts may also arise in the accretion column.
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Recombination energy in double white dwarf formation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nandez, J. L. A.; Ivanova, N.; Lombardi, J. C.
2015-06-01
In this Letter, we investigate the role of recombination energy during a common envelope event. We confirm that taking this energy into account helps to avoid the formation of the circumbinary envelope commonly found in previous studies. For the first time, we can model a complete common envelope event, with a clean compact double white dwarf binary system formed at the end. The resulting binary orbit is almost perfectly circular. In addition to considering recombination energy, we also show that between 1/4 and 1/2 of the released orbital energy is taken away by the ejected material. We apply this new method to the case of the double white dwarf system WD 1101+364, and we find that the progenitor system at the start of the common envelope event consisted of an ˜1.5 M⊙ red giant star in an ˜30 d orbit with a white dwarf companion.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adande, Gilles; Ziurys, L. M.
2013-06-01
Millimeter wave observations of SO_{2} and SO in the envelope of the O-rich supergiant VY-Canis Majoris have been conducted with the Submillimeter Telescope (SMT) of the Arizona Radio Observatory, between 210 and 290 GHz. A non LTE radiative transfer code has been written to fit the line profile of 22 lines of SO_{2} and 5 transitions of SO, and model their abundance and distribution within the circumstellar envelope. The rotational levels involved span a wide energy range, from 13 cm^{-1} to 104 cm^{-1} for SO_{2}, and 17 to 40 cm^{-1} for SO. The high number of transitions fitted provides strong constraints on the excitation conditions, hydrogen density and kinetic temperatures. The results will be discussed in relation to the formation processes and chemistry of these two species in O-rich molecular envelopes.
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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon formation in carbon-rich stellar envelopes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cherchneff, Isabelle; Barker, John R.; Tielens, Alexander G. G. M.
1992-01-01
A detailed chemical kinetic scheme is applied to stellar envelope profiles of gas density and temperature profiles in order to study the formation of PAH molecules in carbon-rich stellar outflows. Chemical concentration profiles are calculated for several envelope models by integrating the coupled continuity equations that include spherically expanding flows from an inner boundary at the shock formation radius. The influence of the 'inverse greenhouse' effect experienced by small PAHs is investigated and shown to increase the PAH yield by many orders of magnitude. It is shown that the route through propargyl radicals could be an important channel to produce benzene. PAH formation yields are found to be extremely sensitive to gas density and temperature and are much smaller than values inferred from the observed dust content of late-type carbon-rich stellar envelopes. It is therefore unlikely that aromatic molecules are generated in the stellar outflow itself.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cheng Taiwang; Brown, Alex
2004-12-01
The interaction of a two-level dipolar molecule with two laser pulses, where one laser's frequency is tuned to the energy level separation (pump laser) while the second laser's frequency is extremely small (probe laser), is investigated. A dipolar molecule is one with a nonzero difference between the permanent dipole moments of the molecular states. As shown previously [A. Brown, Phys. Rev. A 66, 053404 (2002)], the final population transfer between the two levels exhibits a dependence on the carrier-envelope phase of the probe laser. Based on the rotating-wave approximation (RWA), an effective Hamiltonian is derived to account for the basicmore » characteristics of the carrier-envelope phase dependence effect. By analysis of the effective Hamiltonian, scaling properties of the system are found with regard to field strengths, pulse durations, and frequencies. According to these scaling properties, the final-state population transfer can be controlled by varying the carrier-envelope phase of the probe laser field using lasers with weak field strengths (low intensities) and relatively long pulse durations. In order to examine the possible roles of background states, the investigation is extended to a three-level model. It is demonstrated that the carrier-envelope phase effect still persists in a well-defined manner even when neighboring energy levels are present. These results illustrate the potential of utilizing excitation in dipolar molecules as a means of measuring the carrier-envelope phase of a laser pulse or if one can manipulate the carrier envelope phase, as a method of controlling population transfer in dipolar molecules. The results also suggest that the carrier-envelope phases must be taken into account properly when performing calculations involving pump-probe excitation schemes with laser frequencies which differ widely in magnitude.« less
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Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.
Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy
2008-02-22
Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.
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2D and 3D Models of Convective Turbulence and Oscillations in Intermediate-Mass Main-Sequence Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guzik, Joyce Ann; Morgan, Taylor H.; Nelson, Nicholas J.; Lovekin, Catherine; Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Kosovichev, Alexander
2015-08-01
We present multidimensional modeling of convection and oscillations in main-sequence stars somewhat more massive than the sun, using three separate approaches: 1) Applying the spherical 3D MHD ASH (Anelastic Spherical Harmonics) code to simulate the core convection and radiative zone. Our goal is to determine whether core convection can excite low-frequency gravity modes, and thereby explain the presence of low frequencies for some hybrid gamma Dor/delta Sct variables for which the envelope convection zone is too shallow for the convective blocking mechanism to drive g modes; 2) Using the 3D planar ‘StellarBox’ radiation hydrodynamics code to model the envelope convection zone and part of the radiative zone. Our goals are to examine the interaction of stellar pulsations with turbulent convection in the envelope, excitation of acoustic modes, and the role of convective overshooting; 3) Applying the ROTORC 2D stellar evolution and dynamics code to calculate evolution with a variety of initial rotation rates and extents of core convective overshooting. The nonradial adiabatic pulsation frequencies of these nonspherical models will be calculated using the 2D pulsation code NRO of Clement. We will present new insights into gamma Dor and delta Sct pulsations gained by multidimensional modeling compared to 1D model expectations.
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Climate-Specific Passive Building Standards
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wright, Graham S.; Klingenberg, Katrin
2015-07-01
Passive design principles (super insulation, airtight envelopes, elimination of thermal bridges, etc.) - pioneered in North America in the 70s and 80s and refined in Europe in the 90s have proven to be universally effective to significantly reduce heating and cooling loads. However, a single, rigid performance metric developed in Germany has led to limited uptake of passive building principles in many regions of the United States. It has also, in many cases, promoted some design decisions that had negative effects on economic feasibility and thermal comfort. This study's main objective is to validate (in a theoretical sense) verifiable, climate-specificmore » passive standards and space conditioning criteria that retain ambitious, environmentally-necessary energy reduction targets and are economically feasible, such standards provide designers an ambitious but achievable performance target on the path to zero.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
This case study describes the External Thermal and Moisture Management System developed by the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership. This system is typically used in deep energy retrofits and is a valuable approach for the roof-only portions of existing homes, particularly the 1 1/2-story home. It is effective in reducing energy loss through the building envelope, improving building durability, reducing ice dams, and providing opportunities to improve occupant comfort and health.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Erbe, Drake; Lord, Richard; Sciarra, Leonard
The roundtable discussion: A Conversation on Standard 90.1-2016, highlights some of the major changes one can expect to see in building envelope, mechanical system, and lighting requirements. In addition, the article highlights a new performance-based compliance path, climate zone revisions, and the strategic initiatives resulting in the new format. This roundtable was conducted by ASHRAE Journal with Drake Erbe, Member ASHRAE; Dick Lord, Fellow ASHRAE; Len Sciarra, AIA, Member ASHRAE; Eric Richman, Member ASHRAE; Michael Rosenberg, Member ASHRAE; Rahul Athalye, Associate Member ASHRAE; Bing Liu, P.E., Member ASHRAE; and Jason Glazer, P.E., Member ASHRAE.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Essid, Hedi; Ouellette, Pierre; Vigeant, Stephane
2010-01-01
The objective of this paper is to measure the efficiency of high schools in Tunisia. We use a statistical data envelopment analysis (DEA)-bootstrap approach with quasi-fixed inputs to estimate the precision of our measure. To do so, we developed a statistical model serving as the foundation of the data generation process (DGP). The DGP is…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Kuo-Tsang
2013-04-01
Natural ventilation (NV) is considered one of the passive building strategies used for reducing cooling energy demand. The utilization of nature wind for cooling down indoor thermal environment to reach thermal comfort requires knowledge of adequately positioning the building fenestrations, designing inlet-outlet related opening ratios, planning unobstructed cross ventilation paths, and, the most important, assessing the utilization feasibility base on local climatic variables. Furthermore, factors that influence the indoor thermal condition include building envelope heat gain, indoor air velocity, indoor heat gain (e.g. heat discharges from occupant's body, lighting fixture, electrical appliances), and outdoor climate. Among the above, the indoor thermal performance of NV building is significantly dependent to outdoor climate conditions. In hot and humid Taiwan, under college school classrooms are usually operated in natural ventilation mode and are more vulnerable to climate change in regard to maintain indoor thermal comfort. As climate changes in progress, NV classrooms would expect to encounter more events of overheating in the near future, which result in more severe heat stress, and would risk the utilization of natural ventilation. To evaluate the overheating risk under the influence of recent climate change, an actual top floor elementary school classroom with 30 students located at north Taiwan was modeled. Long-term local hourly meteorological data were gathered and further constructed into EnergyPlus Weather Files (EPWs) format for building thermal dynamic simulation to discuss the indoor thermal environmental variation during the period of 1998 to 2012 by retrospective simulation. As indoor thermal environment is an overall condition resulting from a series combination of various factors, sub-hourly building simulation tool, EnergyPlus, coupled with the above fifteen years' EPWs was adopted to predict hourly indoor parameters of mean radiant temperature, air velocity, dry-bulb temperature and relative humidity. These physical quantities are crucial for calculating the thermal indices such as Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), New Standard Effective Temperature (SET*), and operative temperature (OT), which were subsequently being used for assessing thermal discomfort. Occurrences and the severity of overheating were assessed by observing the number of hours that surmount the upper limit of the adaptive thermal model proposed by ASHRAE Standard 55 (American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers Standard) base on ISO 7730 method to characterize long term indoor thermal discomfort. Preliminary result show that although the degree of increase in overheating risk of NV classrooms was mild, there is a trend revealing that both the occurrences and the severity of thermal discomfort were gradually rising. The study also proposed several building renovation strategies for adapting the climate change to alleviate overheating situation. Efficiencies of these recommended strategies were also analyzed by simulating with the hottest year in comparison with the coldest year.
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Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation
Lobo, Maria Stella de Castro; Rodrigues, Henrique de Castro; André, Edgard Caires Gazzola; de Azeredo, Jônatas Almeida; Lins, Marcos Pereira Estellita
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier. PMID:27191158
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The role of envelope shape in the localization of multiple sound sources and echoes in the barn owl.
Baxter, Caitlin S; Nelson, Brian S; Takahashi, Terry T
2013-02-01
Echoes and sounds of independent origin often obscure sounds of interest, but echoes can go undetected under natural listening conditions, a perception called the precedence effect. How does the auditory system distinguish between echoes and independent sources? To investigate, we presented two broadband noises to barn owls (Tyto alba) while varying the similarity of the sounds' envelopes. The carriers of the noises were identical except for a 2- or 3-ms delay. Their onsets and offsets were also synchronized. In owls, sound localization is guided by neural activity on a topographic map of auditory space. When there are two sources concomitantly emitting sounds with overlapping amplitude spectra, space map neurons discharge when the stimulus in their receptive field is louder than the one outside it and when the averaged amplitudes of both sounds are rising. A model incorporating these features calculated the strengths of the two sources' representations on the map (B. S. Nelson and T. T. Takahashi; Neuron 67: 643-655, 2010). The target localized by the owls could be predicted from the model's output. The model also explained why the echo is not localized at short delays: when envelopes are similar, peaks in the leading sound mask corresponding peaks in the echo, weakening the echo's space map representation. When the envelopes are dissimilar, there are few or no corresponding peaks, and the owl localizes whichever source is predicted by the model to be less masked. Thus the precedence effect in the owl is a by-product of a mechanism for representing multiple sound sources on its map.
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Investigating the Wave Nature of the Outer Envelope of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kwon, Ryun-Young; Vourlidas, Angelos, E-mail: rkwon@gmu.edu
We investigate the nature of the outer envelope of halo coronal mass ejections (H-CMEs) using multi-viewpoint observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-A , -B , and SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory coronagraphs. The 3D structure and kinematics of the halo envelopes and the driving CMEs are derived separately using a forward modeling method. We analyze three H-CMEs with peak speeds from 1355 to 2157 km s{sup −1}; sufficiently fast to drive shocks in the corona. We find that the angular widths of the halos range from 192° to 252°, while those of the flux ropes range between only 58° andmore » 91°, indicating that the halos are waves propagating away from the CMEs. The halo widths are in agreement with widths of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) waves in the low corona further demonstrating the common origin of these structures. To further investigate the wave nature of the halos, we model their 3D kinematic properties with a linear fast magnetosonic wave model. The model is able to reproduce the position of the halo flanks with realistic coronal medium assumptions but fails closer to the CME nose. The CME halo envelope seems to arise from a driven wave (or shock) close to the CME nose, but it is gradually becoming a freely propagating fast magnetosonic wave at the flanks. This interpretation provides a simple unifying picture for CME halos, EUV waves, and the large longitudinal spread of solar energetic particles.« less
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Chemistry of Protostellar Envelopes and Disks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flores Rivera, Lizxandra; Terebey, Susan; Willacy, Karen
2018-06-01
Molecule formation is dynamic during the protostar collapse phase, driven by changes in temperature, density, and UV radiation as gas and dust flows from the envelope onto the forming protoplanetary disk. In this work, we compare physical models based on two different collapse solutions. We modeled the chemistry (created by Karen Willacy) for C18O to see how its abundance changes over time using as primary input parameters the temperature and density profile that were produced by the dust Radiative Transfer (MCRT) model called HOCHUNK3D from Whitney (2003). Given this model, we produce synthetic line emission maps from L1527 IRS to simulate the Class 0/I protostar L1527 IRS using RADMC3D code and compare them with previous observations from ALMA. High concentrations of gas phase molecules of C18O are found within the 20 AU in areas in the envelope that are close to the surface of the disk. In the outermost part of the disk surface, the C18O freezes out beyond 400 AU, showing a much reduced abundance where the temperature profile drops down below 25 K. In cold regions, the radiation field plays an important role in the chemistry.
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Envelope: interactive software for modeling and fitting complex isotope distributions.
Sykes, Michael T; Williamson, James R
2008-10-20
An important aspect of proteomic mass spectrometry involves quantifying and interpreting the isotope distributions arising from mixtures of macromolecules with different isotope labeling patterns. These patterns can be quite complex, in particular with in vivo metabolic labeling experiments producing fractional atomic labeling or fractional residue labeling of peptides or other macromolecules. In general, it can be difficult to distinguish the contributions of species with different labeling patterns to an experimental spectrum and difficult to calculate a theoretical isotope distribution to fit such data. There is a need for interactive and user-friendly software that can calculate and fit the entire isotope distribution of a complex mixture while comparing these calculations with experimental data and extracting the contributions from the differently labeled species. Envelope has been developed to be user-friendly while still being as flexible and powerful as possible. Envelope can simultaneously calculate the isotope distributions for any number of different labeling patterns for a given peptide or oligonucleotide, while automatically summing these into a single overall isotope distribution. Envelope can handle fractional or complete atom or residue-based labeling, and the contribution from each different user-defined labeling pattern is clearly illustrated in the interactive display and is individually adjustable. At present, Envelope supports labeling with 2H, 13C, and 15N, and supports adjustments for baseline correction, an instrument accuracy offset in the m/z domain, and peak width. Furthermore, Envelope can display experimental data superimposed on calculated isotope distributions, and calculate a least-squares goodness of fit between the two. All of this information is displayed on the screen in a single graphical user interface. Envelope supports high-quality output of experimental and calculated distributions in PNG or PDF format. Beyond simply comparing calculated distributions to experimental data, Envelope is useful for planning or designing metabolic labeling experiments, by visualizing hypothetical isotope distributions in order to evaluate the feasibility of a labeling strategy. Envelope is also useful as a teaching tool, with its real-time display capabilities providing a straightforward way to illustrate the key variable factors that contribute to an observed isotope distribution. Envelope is a powerful tool for the interactive calculation and visualization of complex isotope distributions for comparison to experimental data. It is available under the GNU General Public License from http://williamson.scripps.edu/envelope/.
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The positive binding energy envelopes of low-mass helium stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hall, Philip D.; Jeffery, C. Simon
2018-04-01
It has been hypothesized that stellar envelopes with positive binding energy may be ejected if the release of recombination energy can be triggered and the calculation of binding energy includes this contribution. The implications of this hypothesis for the evolution of normal hydrogen-rich stars have been investigated, but the implications for helium stars - which may represent mass-transfer or merger remnants in binary star systems - have not. Making a set of model helium stars, we find that those with masses between 0.9 and 2.4 M⊙ evolve to configurations with positive binding energy envelopes. We discuss consequences of the ejection hypothesis for such stars, and possible observational tests of these predictions.
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Eukaryotic-Like Virus Budding in Archaea
Quemin, Emmanuelle R. J.; Chlanda, Petr; Sachse, Martin; Forterre, Patrick
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT Similar to many eukaryotic viruses (and unlike bacteriophages), viruses infecting archaea are often encased in lipid-containing envelopes. However, the mechanisms of their morphogenesis and egress remain unexplored. Here, we used dual-axis electron tomography (ET) to characterize the morphogenesis of Sulfolobus spindle-shaped virus 1 (SSV1), the prototype of the family Fuselloviridae and representative of the most abundant archaea-specific group of viruses. Our results show that SSV1 assembly and egress are concomitant and occur at the cellular cytoplasmic membrane via a process highly reminiscent of the budding of enveloped viruses that infect eukaryotes. The viral nucleoprotein complexes are extruded in the form of previously unknown rod-shaped intermediate structures which have an envelope continuous with the host membrane. Further maturation into characteristic spindle-shaped virions takes place while virions remain attached to the cell surface. Our data also revealed the formation of constricted ring-like structures which resemble the budding necks observed prior to the ESCRT machinery-mediated membrane scission during egress of various enveloped viruses of eukaryotes. Collectively, we provide evidence that archaeal spindle-shaped viruses contain a lipid envelope acquired upon budding of the viral nucleoprotein complex through the host cytoplasmic membrane. The proposed model bears a clear resemblance to the egress strategy employed by enveloped eukaryotic viruses and raises important questions as to how the archaeal single-layered membrane composed of tetraether lipids can undergo scission. PMID:27624130
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GRACE Mission Design: Impact of Uncertainties in Disturbance Environment and Satellite Force Models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mazanek, Daniel D.; Kumar, Renjith R.; Seywald, Hans; Qu, Min
2000-01-01
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) primary mission will be performed by making measurements of the inter-satellite range change between two co-planar, low altitude, near-polar orbiting satellites. Understanding the uncertainties in the disturbance environment, particularly the aerodynamic drag and torques, is critical in several mission areas. These include an accurate estimate of the spacecraft orbital lifetime, evaluation of spacecraft attitude control requirements, and estimation of the orbital maintenance maneuver frequency necessitated by differences in the drag forces acting on both satellites. The FREEMOL simulation software has been developed and utilized to analyze and suggest design modifications to the GRACE spacecraft. Aerodynamic accommodation bounding analyses were performed and worst-case envelopes were obtained for the aerodynamic torques and the differential ballistic coefficients between the leading and trailing GRACE spacecraft. These analyses demonstrate how spacecraft aerodynamic design and analysis can benefit from a better understanding of spacecraft surface accommodation properties, and the implications for mission design constraints such as formation spacing control.
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Computational modeling of latent-heat-storage in PCM modified interior plaster
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Fořt, Jan; Maděra, Jiří; Trník, Anton
2016-06-08
The latent heat storage systems represent a promising way for decrease of buildings energy consumption with respect to the sustainable development principles of building industry. The presented paper is focused on the evaluation of the effect of PCM incorporation on thermal performance of cement-lime plasters. For basic characterization of the developed materials, matrix density, bulk density, and total open porosity are measured. Thermal conductivity is accessed by transient impulse method. DSC analysis is used for the identification of phase change temperature during the heating and cooling process. Using DSC data, the temperature dependent specific heat capacity is calculated. On themore » basis of the experiments performed, the supposed improvement of the energy efficiency of characteristic building envelope system where the designed plasters are likely to be used is evaluated by a computational analysis. Obtained experimental and computational results show a potential of PCM modified plasters for improvement of thermal stability of buildings and moderation of interior climate.« less
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shin, Jong-Yeob; Belcastro, Christine; Khong, thuan
2006-01-01
Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. Such systems developed for failure detection, identification, and reconfiguration, as well as upset recovery, need to be evaluated over broad regions of the flight envelope or under extreme flight conditions, and should include various sources of uncertainty. To apply formal robustness analysis, formulation of linear fractional transformation (LFT) models of complex parameter-dependent systems is required, which represent system uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty and actuator faults. This paper describes a detailed LFT model formulation procedure from the nonlinear model of a transport aircraft by using a preliminary LFT modeling software tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, which utilizes a matrix-based computational approach. The closed-loop system is evaluated over the entire flight envelope based on the generated LFT model which can cover nonlinear dynamics. The robustness analysis results of the closed-loop fault tolerant control system of a transport aircraft are presented. A reliable flight envelope (safe flight regime) is also calculated from the robust performance analysis results, over which the closed-loop system can achieve the desired performance of command tracking and failure detection.
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Bernstein, Leslie R; Trahiotis, Constantine
2014-02-01
Sensitivity to ongoing interaural temporal disparities (ITDs) was measured using bandpass-filtered pulse trains centered at 4600, 6500, or 9200 Hz. Save for minor differences in the exact center frequencies, those target stimuli were those employed by Majdak and Laback [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 125, 3903-3913 (2009)]. At each center frequency, threshold ITD was measured for pulse repetition rates ranging from 64 to 609 Hz. The results and quantitative predictions by a cross-correlation-based model indicated that (1) at most pulse repetition rates, threshold ITD increased with center frequency, (2) the cutoff frequency of the putative envelope low-pass filter that determines sensitivity to ITD at high envelope rates appears to be inversely related to center frequency, and (3) both outcomes were accounted for by assuming that, independent of the center frequency, the listeners' decision variable was a constant criterion change in interaural correlation of the stimuli as processed internally. The finding of an inverse relation between center frequency and the envelope rate limitation, while consistent with much prior literature, runs counter to the conclusion reached by Majdak and Laback.
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Freedman, Holly; Logan, Michael R; Hockman, Darren; Koehler Leman, Julia; Law, John Lok Man; Houghton, Michael
2017-04-15
Despite the recent success of newly developed direct-acting antivirals against hepatitis C, the disease continues to be a global health threat due to the lack of diagnosis of most carriers and the high cost of treatment. The heterodimer formed by glycoproteins E1 and E2 within the hepatitis C virus (HCV) lipid envelope is a potential vaccine candidate and antiviral target. While the structure of E1/E2 has not yet been resolved, partial crystal structures of the E1 and E2 ectodomains have been determined. The unresolved parts of the structure are within the realm of what can be modeled with current computational modeling tools. Furthermore, a variety of additional experimental data is available to support computational predictions of E1/E2 structure, such as data from antibody binding studies, cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), mutational analyses, peptide binding analysis, linker-scanning mutagenesis, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies. In accordance with these rich experimental data, we have built an in silico model of the full-length E1/E2 heterodimer. Our model supports that E1/E2 assembles into a trimer, which was previously suggested from a study by Falson and coworkers (P. Falson, B. Bartosch, K. Alsaleh, B. A. Tews, A. Loquet, Y. Ciczora, L. Riva, C. Montigny, C. Montpellier, G. Duverlie, E. I. Pecheur, M. le Maire, F. L. Cosset, J. Dubuisson, and F. Penin, J. Virol. 89:10333-10346, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1128/JVI.00991-15). Size exclusion chromatography and Western blotting data obtained by using purified recombinant E1/E2 support our hypothesis. Our model suggests that during virus assembly, the trimer of E1/E2 may be further assembled into a pentamer, with 12 pentamers comprising a single HCV virion. We anticipate that this new model will provide a useful framework for HCV envelope structure and the development of antiviral strategies. IMPORTANCE One hundred fifty million people have been estimated to be infected with hepatitis C virus, and many more are at risk for infection. A better understanding of the structure of the HCV envelope, which is responsible for attachment and fusion, could aid in the development of a vaccine and/or new treatments for this disease. We draw upon computational techniques to predict a full-length model of the E1/E2 heterodimer based on the partial crystal structures of the envelope glycoproteins E1 and E2. E1/E2 has been widely studied experimentally, and this provides valuable data, which has assisted us in our modeling. Our proposed structure is used to suggest the organization of the HCV envelope. We also present new experimental data from size exclusion chromatography that support our computational prediction of a trimeric oligomeric state of E1/E2. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.
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Logan, Michael R.; Hockman, Darren; Koehler Leman, Julia; Law, John Lok Man
2017-01-01
ABSTRACT Despite the recent success of newly developed direct-acting antivirals against hepatitis C, the disease continues to be a global health threat due to the lack of diagnosis of most carriers and the high cost of treatment. The heterodimer formed by glycoproteins E1 and E2 within the hepatitis C virus (HCV) lipid envelope is a potential vaccine candidate and antiviral target. While the structure of E1/E2 has not yet been resolved, partial crystal structures of the E1 and E2 ectodomains have been determined. The unresolved parts of the structure are within the realm of what can be modeled with current computational modeling tools. Furthermore, a variety of additional experimental data is available to support computational predictions of E1/E2 structure, such as data from antibody binding studies, cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), mutational analyses, peptide binding analysis, linker-scanning mutagenesis, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies. In accordance with these rich experimental data, we have built an in silico model of the full-length E1/E2 heterodimer. Our model supports that E1/E2 assembles into a trimer, which was previously suggested from a study by Falson and coworkers (P. Falson, B. Bartosch, K. Alsaleh, B. A. Tews, A. Loquet, Y. Ciczora, L. Riva, C. Montigny, C. Montpellier, G. Duverlie, E. I. Pecheur, M. le Maire, F. L. Cosset, J. Dubuisson, and F. Penin, J. Virol. 89:10333–10346, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1128/JVI.00991-15). Size exclusion chromatography and Western blotting data obtained by using purified recombinant E1/E2 support our hypothesis. Our model suggests that during virus assembly, the trimer of E1/E2 may be further assembled into a pentamer, with 12 pentamers comprising a single HCV virion. We anticipate that this new model will provide a useful framework for HCV envelope structure and the development of antiviral strategies. IMPORTANCE One hundred fifty million people have been estimated to be infected with hepatitis C virus, and many more are at risk for infection. A better understanding of the structure of the HCV envelope, which is responsible for attachment and fusion, could aid in the development of a vaccine and/or new treatments for this disease. We draw upon computational techniques to predict a full-length model of the E1/E2 heterodimer based on the partial crystal structures of the envelope glycoproteins E1 and E2. E1/E2 has been widely studied experimentally, and this provides valuable data, which has assisted us in our modeling. Our proposed structure is used to suggest the organization of the HCV envelope. We also present new experimental data from size exclusion chromatography that support our computational prediction of a trimeric oligomeric state of E1/E2. PMID:28148799
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Statistical Properties of Echosignal Obtained from Human Dermis In Vivo
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piotrzkowska, Hanna; Litniewski, Jerzy; Nowicki, Andrzej; Szymańska, Elżbieta
The paper presents the classification of the healthy skin and the skin lesions (basal cell carcinoma and actinic keratosis), basing on the statistical parameters of the envelope of ultrasonic echoes. The envelope was modeled using Rayleigh and non-Rayleigh (K-distribution) statistics. Furthermore, the characteristic parameter of the K-distribution, the effective number of scatterers was investigated. Also the attenuation coefficient was used for the skin lesion assessment.
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Time-optimal aircraft pursuit-evasion with a weapon envelope constraint
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Menon, P. K. A.; Duke, E. L.
1990-01-01
The optimal pursuit-evasion problem between two aircraft, including nonlinear point-mass vehicle models and a realistic weapon envelope, is analyzed. Using a linear combination of flight time and the square of the vehicle acceleration as the performance index, a closed-form solution is obtained in nonlinear feedback form. Due to its modest computational requirements, this guidance law can be used for onboard real-time implementation.
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Bernstein, Leslie R.; Trahiotis, Constantine
2009-01-01
This study addressed how manipulating certain aspects of the envelopes of high-frequency stimuli affects sensitivity to envelope-based interaural temporal disparities (ITDs). Listener’s threshold ITDs were measured using an adaptive two-alternative paradigm employing “raised-sine” stimuli [John, M. S., et al. (2002). Ear Hear. 23, 106–117] which permit independent variation in their modulation frequency, modulation depth, and modulation exponent. Threshold ITDs were measured while manipulating modulation exponent for stimuli having modulation frequencies between 32 and 256 Hz. The results indicated that graded increases in the exponent led to graded decreases in envelope-based threshold ITDs. Threshold ITDs were also measured while parametrically varying modulation exponent and modulation depth. Overall, threshold ITDs decreased with increases in the modulation depth. Unexpectedly, increases in the exponent of the raised-sine led to especially large decreases in threshold ITD when the modulation depth was low. An interaural correlation-based model was generally able to capture changes in threshold ITD stemming from changes in the exponent, depth of modulation, and frequency of modulation of the raised-sine stimuli. The model (and several variations of it), however, could not account for the unexpected interaction between the value of raised-sine exponent and its modulation depth. PMID:19425666
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Wolf-Rayet stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud as testbed for massive star evolution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schootemeijer, A.; Langer, N.
2018-03-01
Context. The majority of the Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars represent the stripped cores of evolved massive stars who lost most of their hydrogen envelope. Wind stripping in single stars is expected to be inefficient in producing WR stars in metal-poor environments such as the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). While binary interaction can also produce WR stars at low metallicity, it is puzzling that the fraction of WR binaries appears to be about 40%, independent of the metallicity. Aim. We aim to use the recently determined physical properties of the twelve known SMC WR stars to explore their possible formation channels through comparisons with stellar models. Methods: We used the MESA stellar evolution code to construct two grids of stellar models with SMC metallicity. One of these consists of models of rapidly rotating single stars, which evolve in part or completely chemically homogeneously. In a second grid, we analyzed core helium burning stellar models assuming constant hydrogen and helium gradients in their envelopes. Results: We find that chemically homogeneous evolution is not able to account for the majority of the WR stars in the SMC. However, in particular the apparently single WR star SMC AB12, and the double WR system SMC AB5 (HD 5980) appear consistent with this channel. We further find a dichotomy in the envelope hydrogen gradients required to explain the observed temperatures of the SMC WR stars. Shallow gradients are found for the WR stars with O star companions, while much steeper hydrogen gradients are required to understand the group of hot apparently single WR stars. Conclusions: The derived shallow hydrogen gradients in the WR component of the WR+O star binaries are consistent with predictions from binary models where mass transfer occurs early, in agreement with their binary properties. Since the hydrogen profiles in evolutionary models of massive stars become steeper with time after the main sequence, we conclude that most of the hot (Teff > 60 kK ) apparently single WR stars lost their envelope after a phase of strong expansion, e.g., as the result of common envelope evolution with a lower mass companion. The so far undetected companions, either main sequence stars or compact objects, are then expected to still be present. A corresponding search might identify the first immediate double black hole binary progenitor with masses as high as those detected in GW150914.
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Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C
2017-11-30
Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Challenge of biofuel: filling the tank without emptying the stomach?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajagopal, D.; Sexton, S. E.; Roland-Holst, D.; Zilberman, D.
2007-10-01
Biofuels have become a leading alternative to fossil fuel because they can be produced domestically by many countries, require only minimal changes to retail distribution and end-use technologies, are a partial response to global climate change, and because they have the potential to spur rural development. Production of biofuel has increased most rapidly for corn ethanol, in part because of government subsidies; yet, corn ethanol offers at most a modest contribution to society's climate change goals and only a marginally positive net energy balance. Current biofuels pose long-run consequences for the provision of food and environmental amenities. In the short run, however, when gasoline supply and demand are inelastic, they serve as a buffer supply of energy, helping to reduce prices. Employing a conceptual model and with back-of-the-envelope estimates of wealth transfers resulting from biofuel production, we find that ethanol subsidies pay for themselves. Adoption of second-generation technologies may make biofuels more beneficial to society. The large-scale production of new types of crops dedicated to energy is likely to induce structural change in agriculture and change the sources, levels, and variability of farm incomes. The socio-economic impact of biofuel production will largely depend on how well the process of technology adoption by farmers and processors is understood and managed. The confluence of agricultural policy with environmental and energy policies is expected.
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Challenging the Concept of Natural Distributions: Global Change Turns Trees Into Weeds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gleadow, R.; O'Leary, B.; Burd, M.
2015-12-01
National parks and nature reserves are set aside to preserve certain ecosystems, reflecting species distributions at a moment in time. Changing climate and fire dynamics can mean that the species most suited to that area are different, leading new tree species to 'invade' the conservation areas. Pittosporum undulatum is an invasive tree native tree species with a natural range from southeast Queensland to Eastern Victoria, Australia. Soon after European settlement this species became a popular ornamental tree in gardens and was planted outside of its natural range across the continent and introduced to the USA (where it is known as Victorian Box), the Hawaiian Islands, Jamaica, southern Africa and the Azores. The reason this is important is because high density of P. undulatum lead to reduced biodiversity and often the complete suppression of regeneration of exiting forest trees. In Australia, changes in fire dynamics have played a major part in its in dominance. New strategies for forest management were proposed by Gleadow an Ashton in the 1980s, but lack of action has led us to predict that the entire Dandenong Ranges, near Melbourne, will be invaded within 25 years resulting in the loss of a major recreational and conservation area. This is a model of the type of problems that can be expected as the climate envelope for species changes in the coming century, challenging the very concept of a "native ".
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A New Multiscale Model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biello, Joseph A.; Majda, Andrew J.
2005-06-01
A multiscale model of the MJO is developed here that accounts, in a simplified fashion, for both the upscale transfer from synoptic to planetary scales of momentum and temperature from wave trains of thermally driven equatorial synoptic-scale circulations in a moving convective envelope as well as direct mean heating on planetary scales. This model involves idealized thermally driven congestus synoptic-scale fluctuations in the eastern part of the moving wave envelope and convective superclusters in the western part of the envelope. The model self-consistently reproduces qualitatively many of the detailed structural features of the planetary circulation in the observations of the MJO, including the vertical structure in both the westerly onset region and the strong westerly wind burst region, as well as the horizontal quadrupole planetary vortex structure. The westerly midlevel inflow in the strong westerly region and the quadrupole vortex are largely produced in the model by the upscale transport of momentum to the planetary scales, while the midlevel easterly jet in the westerly onset region is substantially strengthened by this process. The role of wave trains of tilted organized synoptic-scale circulations is crucial for this fidelity with observations. The appeal of the multiscale models developed below is their firm mathematical underpinnings, simplicity, and analytic tractability while remaining self-consistent with many of the features of the observational record.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Ping; Kalscheuer, Thomas; Hedin, Peter; Garcia Juanatey, Maria A.
2017-04-01
We present a novel 2-D magnetotelluric (MT) inversion scheme, in which the local weights of the regularizing smoothness constraints are based on the envelope attribute of a reflection seismic image. The weights resemble those of a previously published seismic modification of the minimum gradient support method. We measure the directional gradients of the seismic envelope to modify the horizontal and vertical smoothness constraints separately. Successful application of the inversion to MT field data of the Collisional Orogeny in the Scandinavian Caledonides (COSC) project using the envelope attribute of the COSC reflection seismic profile helped to reduce the uncertainty of the interpretation of the main décollement by demonstrating that the associated alum shales may be much thinner than suggested by a previous inversion model. Thus, the new model supports the proposed location of a future borehole COSC-2 which is hoped to penetrate the main décollement and the underlying Precambrian basement.
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The role of envelope shape in the localization of multiple sound sources and echoes in the barn owl
Baxter, Caitlin S.; Takahashi, Terry T.
2013-01-01
Echoes and sounds of independent origin often obscure sounds of interest, but echoes can go undetected under natural listening conditions, a perception called the precedence effect. How does the auditory system distinguish between echoes and independent sources? To investigate, we presented two broadband noises to barn owls (Tyto alba) while varying the similarity of the sounds' envelopes. The carriers of the noises were identical except for a 2- or 3-ms delay. Their onsets and offsets were also synchronized. In owls, sound localization is guided by neural activity on a topographic map of auditory space. When there are two sources concomitantly emitting sounds with overlapping amplitude spectra, space map neurons discharge when the stimulus in their receptive field is louder than the one outside it and when the averaged amplitudes of both sounds are rising. A model incorporating these features calculated the strengths of the two sources' representations on the map (B. S. Nelson and T. T. Takahashi; Neuron 67: 643–655, 2010). The target localized by the owls could be predicted from the model's output. The model also explained why the echo is not localized at short delays: when envelopes are similar, peaks in the leading sound mask corresponding peaks in the echo, weakening the echo's space map representation. When the envelopes are dissimilar, there are few or no corresponding peaks, and the owl localizes whichever source is predicted by the model to be less masked. Thus the precedence effect in the owl is a by-product of a mechanism for representing multiple sound sources on its map. PMID:23175801
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Oya, Yoko; López-Sepulcre, Ana; Watanabe, Yoshimasa
2016-06-20
We have analyzed rotational spectral line emission of OCS, CH{sub 3}OH, HCOOCH{sub 3}, and H{sub 2}CS observed toward the low-mass Class 0 protostellar source IRAS 16293–2422 Source A at a sub-arcsecond resolution (∼0.″6 × 0.″5) with ALMA. Significant chemical differentiation is found on a scale of 50 au. The OCS line is found to trace well the infalling–rotating envelope in this source. On the other hand, the distributions of CH{sub 3}OH and HCOOCH{sub 3} are found to be concentrated around the inner part of the infalling–rotating envelope. With a simple ballistic model of the infalling–rotating envelope, the radius of themore » centrifugal barrier (a half of the centrifugal radius) and the protostellar mass are evaluated from the OCS data to be from 40 to 60 au and from 0.5 to 1.0 M {sub ⊙}, respectively, assuming the inclination angle of the envelope/disk structure to be 60° (90° for the edge-on configuration). Although the protostellar mass is correlated with the inclination angle, the radius of the centrifugal barrier is not. This is the first indication of the centrifugal barrier of the infalling–rotating envelope in a hot corino source. CH{sub 3}OH and HCOOCH{sub 3} may be liberated from ice mantles by weak accretion shocks around the centrifugal barrier and/or by protostellar heating. The H{sub 2}CS emission seems to come from the disk component inside the centrifugal barrier in addition to the envelope component. The centrifugal barrier plays a central role not only in the formation of a rotationally supported disk but also in the chemical evolution from the envelope to the protoplanetary disk.« less
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The shock process and light element production in supernovae envelopes. Ph.D. Thesis - Chicago Univ.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brown, Lawrence E.; Dearborn, David S.; Schramm, David N.; Larsen, Jon T.; Kurokawa, Shin
1990-01-01
Detailed hydrodynamic modeling of the passage of supernova shocks through the hydrogen envelopes of blue and red progenitor stars was carried out to explore the sensitivity to model conditions of light element production (specifically Li-7 and B-11) which was noted by Dearborn, Schramm, Steigman and Truran (1989) (DSST). It is found that, for stellar models with M is less than or approximately 100 M solar mass, current state of the art supernova shocks do not produce significant light element yields by hydrodynamic processes alone. The dependence of this conclusion on stellar models and on shock strengths is explored. Preliminary implications for Galactic evolution of lithium are discussed, and it is suspected that intermediate mass red giant stars may be the most consistent production site for lithium.
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Energy Technology Allocation for Distributed Energy Resources: A Technology-Policy Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mallikarjun, Sreekanth
Distributed energy resources (DER) are emerging rapidly. New engineering technologies, materials, and designs improve the performance and extend the range of locations for DER. In contrast, constructing new or modernizing existing high voltage transmission lines for centralized generation are expensive and challenging. In addition, customer demand for reliability has increased and concerns about climate change have created a pull for swift renewable energy penetration. In this context, DER policy makers, developers, and users are interested in determining which energy technologies to use to accommodate different end-use energy demands. We present a two-stage multi-objective strategic technology-policy framework for determining the optimal energy technology allocation for DER. The framework simultaneously considers economic, technical, and environmental objectives. The first stage utilizes a Data Envelopment Analysis model for each end-use to evaluate the performance of each energy technology based on the three objectives. The second stage incorporates factor efficiencies determined in the first stage, capacity limitations, dispatchability, and renewable penetration for each technology, and demand for each end-use into a bottleneck multi-criteria decision model which provides the Pareto-optimal energy resource allocation. We conduct several case studies to understand the roles of various distributed energy technologies in different scenarios. We construct some policy implications based on the model results of set of case studies.
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Microscale vicariance and diversification of Western Balkan caddisflies linked to karstification.
Previšić, Ana; Schnitzler, Jan; Kučinić, Mladen; Graf, Wolfram; Ibrahimi, Halil; Kerovec, Mladen; Pauls, Steffen U
2014-03-01
The karst areas in the Dinaric region of the Western Balkan Peninsula are a hotspot of freshwater biodiversity. Many investigators have examined diversification of the subterranean freshwater fauna in these karst systems. However, diversification of surface-water fauna remains largely unexplored. We assessed local and regional diversification of surface-water species in karst systems and asked whether patterns of population differentiation could be explained by dispersal-diversification processes or allopatric diversification following karst-related microscale vicariance. We analyzed mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (mtCOI) sequence data of 4 caddisfly species (genus Drusus ) in a phylogeographic framework to assess local and regional population genetic structure and Pliocene/Pleistocene history. We used BEAST software to assess the timing of intraspecific diversification of the target species. We compared climate envelopes of the study species and projected climatically suitable areas during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to assess differences in the species climatic niches and infer potential LGM refugia. The haplotype distribution of the 4 species (324 individuals from 32 populations) was characterized by strong genetic differentiation with few haplotypes shared among populations (16%) and deep divergence among populations of the 3 endemic species, even at local scales. Divergence among local populations of endemics often exceeded divergence among regional and continental clades of the widespread D. discolor . Major divergences among regional populations dated to 2.0 to 0.5 Mya. Species distribution model projections and genetic structure suggest that the endemic species persisted in situ and diversified locally throughout multiple Pleistocene climate cycles. The pattern for D. discolor was different and consistent with multiple invasions into the region. Patterns of population genetic structure and diversification were similar for the 3 regional endemic Drusus species and consistent with microscale vicariance after the onset of intensified karstification in the Dinaric region. Karstification may induce microscale vicariance of running surface-water habitats and probably promotes allopatric fragmentation of stream insects at small spatial scales.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya
2016-04-01
To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.
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Timing of the departure of ocean biogeochemical cycles from the preindustrial state.
Christian, James R
2014-01-01
Changes in ocean chemistry and climate induced by anthropogenic CO2 affect a broad range of ocean biological and biogeochemical processes; these changes are already well underway. Direct effects of CO2 (e.g. on pH) are prominent among these, but climate model simulations with historical greenhouse gas forcing suggest that physical and biological processes only indirectly forced by CO2 (via the effect of atmospheric CO2 on climate) begin to show anthropogenically-induced trends as early as the 1920s. Dates of emergence of a number of representative ocean fields from the envelope of natural variability are calculated for global means and for spatial 'fingerprints' over a number of geographic regions. Emergence dates are consistent among these methods and insensitive to the exact choice of regions, but are generally earlier with more spatial information included. Emergence dates calculated for individual sampling stations are more variable and generally later, but means across stations are generally consistent with global emergence dates. The last sign reversal of linear trends calculated for periods of 20 or 30 years also functions as a diagnostic of emergence, and is generally consistent with other measures. The last sign reversal among 20 year trends is found to be a conservative measure (biased towards later emergence), while for 30 year trends it is found to have an early emergence bias, relative to emergence dates calculated by departure from the preindustrial mean. These results are largely independent of emission scenario, but the latest-emerging fields show a response to mitigation. A significant anthropogenic component of ocean variability has been present throughout the modern era of ocean observation.
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Timing of the Departure of Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles from the Preindustrial State
Christian, James R.
2014-01-01
Changes in ocean chemistry and climate induced by anthropogenic CO2 affect a broad range of ocean biological and biogeochemical processes; these changes are already well underway. Direct effects of CO2 (e.g. on pH) are prominent among these, but climate model simulations with historical greenhouse gas forcing suggest that physical and biological processes only indirectly forced by CO2 (via the effect of atmospheric CO2 on climate) begin to show anthropogenically-induced trends as early as the 1920s. Dates of emergence of a number of representative ocean fields from the envelope of natural variability are calculated for global means and for spatial ‘fingerprints’ over a number of geographic regions. Emergence dates are consistent among these methods and insensitive to the exact choice of regions, but are generally earlier with more spatial information included. Emergence dates calculated for individual sampling stations are more variable and generally later, but means across stations are generally consistent with global emergence dates. The last sign reversal of linear trends calculated for periods of 20 or 30 years also functions as a diagnostic of emergence, and is generally consistent with other measures. The last sign reversal among 20 year trends is found to be a conservative measure (biased towards later emergence), while for 30 year trends it is found to have an early emergence bias, relative to emergence dates calculated by departure from the preindustrial mean. These results are largely independent of emission scenario, but the latest-emerging fields show a response to mitigation. A significant anthropogenic component of ocean variability has been present throughout the modern era of ocean observation. PMID:25386910
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Development of Design Guidance for K-12 Schools: From 30% to 50% Energy Savings
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pless, S.; Torcellini, P.; Long, N.
2008-01-01
This paper describes the development of energy efficiency recommendations for achieving 30% whole-building energy savings in K-12 Schools over levels achieved by following the ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1, Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Buildings (1999 and 2004 versions). Exhaustive simulations were run to create packages of energy design solutions available over a wide range of K-12 schools and climates. These design recommendations look at building envelope, fenestration, lighting systems (including electrical lights and daylighting), HVAC systems, building automation and controls, outside air treatment, and service water heating. We document and discuss the energy modeling performed to demonstrate that themore » recommendations will result in at least 30% energy savings over ASHRAE 90.1-1999 and ASHRAE 90.1-2004. Recommendations are evaluated based on the availability of daylighting for the school and by the type of HVAC system. Compared to the ASHRAE 90.1-1999 baseline, the recommendations result in more than 30% savings in all climate zones for both daylit and nondaylit elementary, middle, and high schools with a range of HVAC system types. These recommendations have been included in the Advanced Energy Design Guide for K-12 School Buildings. Compared to the more stringent ASHRAE 90.1-2004 baseline, the recommendations result in more than 30% savings in all climate zones, for only the daylit elementary, middle, and high schools, with a range of HVAC system types. To inform the future development of recommendations for higher level of energy savings, we analyzed a subset of recommendations to understand which energy efficiency technologies would be needed to achieve 50% energy savings.« less
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Flight-Test Evaluation of Flutter-Prediction Methods
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lind, RIck; Brenner, Marty
2003-01-01
The flight-test community routinely spends considerable time and money to determine a range of flight conditions, called a flight envelope, within which an aircraft is safe to fly. The cost of determining a flight envelope could be greatly reduced if there were a method of safely and accurately predicting the speed associated with the onset of an instability called flutter. Several methods have been developed with the goal of predicting flutter speeds to improve the efficiency of flight testing. These methods include (1) data-based methods, in which one relies entirely on information obtained from the flight tests and (2) model-based approaches, in which one relies on a combination of flight data and theoretical models. The data-driven methods include one based on extrapolation of damping trends, one that involves an envelope function, one that involves the Zimmerman-Weissenburger flutter margin, and one that involves a discrete-time auto-regressive model. An example of a model-based approach is that of the flutterometer. These methods have all been shown to be theoretically valid and have been demonstrated on simple test cases; however, until now, they have not been thoroughly evaluated in flight tests. An experimental apparatus called the Aerostructures Test Wing (ATW) was developed to test these prediction methods.
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Grid of Supergiant B[e] Models from HDUST Radiative Transfer
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Domiciano de Souza, A.; Carciofi, A. C.
2012-12-01
By using the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code HDUST (developed by A. C. Carciofi and J..E. Bjorkman) we have built a grid of models for stars presenting the B[e] phenomenon and a bimodal outflowing envelope. The models are particularly adapted to the study of B[e] supergiants and FS CMa type stars. The adopted physical parameters of the calculated models make the grid well adapted to interpret high angular and high spectral observations, in particular spectro-interferometric data from ESO-VLTI instruments AMBER (near-IR at low and medium spectral resolution) and MIDI (mid-IR at low spectral resolution). The grid models include, for example, a central B star with different effective temperatures, a gas (hydrogen) and silicate dust circumstellar envelope with a bimodal mass loss presenting dust in the denser equatorial regions. The HDUST grid models were pre-calculated using the high performance parallel computing facility Mésocentre SIGAMM, located at OCA, France.
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Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sebastião, P.; Guedes Soares, C.
2006-12-01
A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters. In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input. The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained. The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.
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Nerot, A; Skalli, W; Wang, X
2016-10-03
Recent progress in 3D scanning technologies allows easy access to 3D human body envelope. To create personalized human models with an articulated linkage for realistic re-posturing and motion analyses, an accurate estimation of internal skeleton points, including joint centers, from the external envelope is required. For this research project, 3D reconstructions of both internal skeleton and external envelope from low dose biplanar X-rays of 40 male adults were obtained. Using principal component analysis technique (PCA), a low-dimensional dataset was used to predict internal points of the upper body from the trunk envelope. A least squares method was used to find PC scores that fit the PCA-based model to the envelope of a new subject. To validate the proposed approach, estimated internal points were evaluated using a leave-one-out (LOO) procedure, i.e. successively considering each individual from our dataset as an extra-subject. In addition, different methods were proposed to reduce the variability in data and improve the performance of the PCA-based prediction. The best method was considered as the one providing the smallest errors between estimated and reference internal points with an average error of 8.3mm anterior-posteriorly, 6.7mm laterally and 6.5mm vertically. As the proposed approach relies on few or no bony landmarks, it could be easily applicable and generalizable to surface scans from any devices. Combined with automatic body scanning techniques, this study could potentially constitute a new step towards automatic generation of external/internal subject-specific manikins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nehete, Pramod N.; Nehete, Bharti P.; Hill, Lori
2008-01-05
Infection of Indian-origin rhesus macaques by the simian human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) is considered to be a suitable preclinical model for directly testing efficacy of vaccine candidates based on the HIV-1 envelope. We used this model for prophylactic vaccination with a peptide-cocktail comprised of highly conserved HIV-1 envelope sequences immunogenic/antigenic in macaques and humans. Separate groups of macaques were immunized with the peptide-cocktail by intravenous and subcutaneous routes using autologous dendritic cells (DC) and Freund's adjuvant, respectively. The vaccine elicited antigen specific IFN-{gamma}-producing cells and T-cell proliferation, but not HIV-neutralizing antibodies. The vaccinated animals also exhibited efficient cross-clade cytolytic activitymore » against target cells expressing envelope proteins corresponding to HIV-1 strains representative of multiple clades that increased after intravenous challenge with pathogenic SHIV{sub KU2}. Virus-neutralizing antibodies were either undetectable or present only transiently at low levels in the control as well as vaccinated monkeys after infection. Significant control of plasma viremia leading to undetectable levels was achieved in majority of vaccinated monkeys compared to mock-vaccinated controls. Monkeys vaccinated with the peptide-cocktail using autologous DC, compared to Freund's adjuvant, and the mock-vaccinated animals, showed significantly higher IFN-{gamma} production, higher levels of vaccine-specific IFN-{gamma} producing CD4{sup +} cells and significant control of plasma viremia. These results support DC-based vaccine delivery and the utility of the conserved HIV-1 envelope peptide-cocktail, capable of priming strong cell-mediated immunity, for potential inclusion in HIV vaccination strategies.« less
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Saunders, Kevin O; Santra, Sampa; Parks, Robert; Yates, Nicole L; Sutherland, Laura L; Scearce, Richard M; Balachandran, Harikrishnan; Bradley, Todd; Goodman, Derrick; Eaton, Amanda; Stanfield-Oakley, Sherry A; Tartaglia, James; Phogat, Sanjay; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Esteban, Mariano; Gomez, Carmen E; Perdiguero, Beatriz; Jacobs, Bertram; Kibler, Karen; Korber, Bette; Montefiori, David C; Ferrari, Guido; Vandergrift, Nathan; Liao, Hua-Xin; Tomaras, Georgia D; Haynes, Barton F
2018-04-15
A preventive human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine is an essential part of the strategy to eradicate AIDS. A critical question is whether antibodies that do not neutralize primary isolate (tier 2) HIV-1 strains can protect from infection. In this study, we investigated the ability of an attenuated poxvirus vector (NYVAC) prime-envelope gp120 boost to elicit potentially protective antibody responses in a rhesus macaque model of mucosal simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) infection. NYVAC vector delivery of a group M consensus envelope, trivalent mosaic envelopes, or a natural clade B isolate B.1059 envelope elicited antibodies that mediated neutralization of tier 1 viruses, cellular cytotoxicity, and phagocytosis. None of the macaques made neutralizing antibodies against the tier 2 SHIV SF162P3 used for mucosal challenge. Significant protection from infection was not observed for the three groups of vaccinated macaques compared to unvaccinated macaques, although binding antibody to HIV-1 Env correlated with decreased viremia after challenge. Thus, NYVAC Env prime-gp120 boost vaccination elicited polyfunctional, nonneutralizing antibody responses with minimal protective activity against tier 2 SHIV mucosal challenge. IMPORTANCE The antibody responses that confer protection against HIV-1 infection remain unknown. Polyfunctional antibody responses correlated with time to infection in previous macaque studies. Determining the ability of vaccines to induce these types of responses is critical for understanding how to improve upon the one efficacious human HIV-1 vaccine trial completed thus far. We characterized the antibody responses induced by a NYVAC-protein vaccine and determined the protective capacity of polyfunctional antibody responses in an R5, tier 2 mucosal SHIV infection model. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.
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Formation and Atmosphere of Complex Organic Molecules of the HH 212 Protostellar Disk
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lee, Chin-Fei; Ho, Paul T. P.; Hirano, Naomi
HH 212 is a nearby (400 pc) Class 0 protostellar system recently found to host a “hamburger”-shaped dusty disk with a radius of ∼60 au, deeply embedded in an infalling-rotating flattened envelope. We have spatially resolved this envelope-disk system with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array at up to ∼16 au (0.″04) resolution. The envelope is detected in HCO{sup +} J = 4–3 down to the dusty disk. Complex organic molecules (COMs) and doubly deuterated formaldehyde (D{sub 2}CO) are detected above and below the dusty disk within ∼40 au of the central protostar. The COMs are methanol (CH{sub 3}OH), deuterated methanolmore » (CH{sub 2}DOH), methyl mercaptan (CH{sub 3}SH), and formamide (NH{sub 2}CHO, a prebiotic precursor). We have modeled the gas kinematics in HCO{sup +} and COMs and found a centrifugal barrier (CB) at a radius of ∼44 au, within which a Keplerian rotating disk is formed. This indicates that HCO{sup +} traces the infalling-rotating envelope down to the CB and COMs trace the atmosphere of a Keplerian rotating disk within the CB. The COMs are spatially resolved for the first time, both radially and vertically, in the atmosphere of a disk in the earliest, Class 0 phase of star formation. Our spatially resolved observations of COMs favor their formation in the disk rather than a rapidly infalling (warm) inner envelope. The abundances and spatial distributions of the COMs provide strong constraints on models of their formation and transport in low-mass star formation.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kervella, P.; Domiciano de Souza, A.; Kanaan, S.; Meilland, A.; Spang, A.; Stee, Ph.
2009-01-01
Context: As is the case of several other Be stars, Achernar is surrounded by an envelope, recently detected by near-IR interferometry. Aims: We search for the signature of circumstellar emission at distances of a few stellar radii from Achernar, in the thermal IR domain. Methods: We obtained interferometric observations on three VLTI baselines in the N band (8-13 μm), using the MIDI instrument. Results: From the measured visibilities, we derive the angular extension and flux contribution of the N band circumstellar emission in the polar direction of Achernar. The interferometrically resolved polar envelope contributes 13.4 ± 2.5% of the photospheric flux in the N band, with a full width at half maximum of 9.9 ± 2.3 mas (≈6 R_star). This flux contribution is in good agreement with the photometric IR excess of 10-20% measured by fitting the spectral energy distribution. Due to our limited azimuth coverage, we can only establish an upper limit of 5-10% for the equatorial envelope. We compare the observed properties of the envelope with an existing model of this star computed with the SIMECA code. Conclusions: The observed extended emission in the thermal IR along the polar direction of Achernar is well reproduced by the existing SIMECA model. Already detected at 2.2 μm, this polar envelope is most probably an observational signature of the fast wind ejected by the hot polar caps of the star. Based on observations made with ESO Telescopes at Paranal Observatory under programs 078.D-0295(C), (D) and (E). Table 2 is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
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How much hydrogen is there in a white dwarf?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Macdonald, James; Vennes, Stephane
1991-01-01
Stratified hydrogen/helium envelope models in diffusive equilibrium are calculated for a 0.6-solar-mass white dwarf for effective temperatures between 10,000 and 80,000 K in order to investigate the observational constraints placed on the total hydrogen mass. Convective mixing is included ab initio in the calculations, and synthetic spectra are used for comparing these models with observational materials. It is shown that evolutionary changes in the surface composition of white dwarfs cannot be explained by a model in which a small amount of hydrogen floats to the surface from initially being mixed in the outer parts of a helium envelope. It is pointed out that the shape of the hydrogen lines can be used for constraining theories of convective overshoot.
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Speech transformation system (spectrum and/or excitation) without pitch extraction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seneff, S.
1980-07-01
A speech analysis synthesis system was developed which is capable of independent manipulation of the fundamental frequency and spectral envelope of a speech waveform. The system deconvolved the original speech with the spectral envelope estimate to obtain a model for the excitation, explicit pitch extraction was not required and as a consequence, the transformed speech was more natural sounding than would be the case if the excitation were modeled as a sequence of pulses. It is shown that the system has applications in the areas of voice modifications, baseband excited vocoders, time scale modifications, and frequency compression as an aid to the partially deaf.
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Jet or Shock Breakout? The Low-Luminosity GRB 060218
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Irwin, Christopher; Chevalier, Roger
2016-01-01
We consider a model for the long-duration, low-luminosity gamma-ray burst GRB 060218 that plausibly accounts for multiwavelength observations to day 20. The components of our model are: (1) a long-lived (tj ~ 3000 s) central engine and accompanying low-luminosity (Lj ~ 1045 erg s-1), mildly relativistic jet; (2) a low-mass (~ 10-2 Msun) envelope surrounding the progenitor star; and (3) a modest amount of dust (AV ~ 0.1) in the circumstellar or interstellar environment. Blackbody emission from the transparency radius in a low-power jet outflow can fit the prompt thermal X-ray emission, and the prompt nonthermal X-rays and γ-rays may be produced via Compton scattering of thermal photons from hot leptons in the jet interior or the external shocks. The later mildly relativistic phase of this outflow can produce the radio emission via synchrotron radiation from the forward shock. Meanwhile, interaction of the associated SN 2006aj with a circumstellar envelope extending to ~ 1013 cm can explain the early optical peak. The X-ray afterglow can be interpreted as a light echo of the prompt emission from dust at ~ 30 pc. Our model is a plausible alternative to that of Nakar, who recently proposed shock breakout of a jet smothered by an extended envelope as the source of prompt emission. Both our results and Nakar's suggest that ultra-long bursts such as GRB 060218 and GRB 100316D may originate from unusual progenitors with extended circumstellar envelopes, and that a jet is necessary to decouple the prompt high-energy emission from the supernova.
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Jet or shock breakout? The low-luminosity GRB 060218
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Irwin, Christopher M.; Chevalier, Roger A.
2016-08-01
We consider a model for the low-luminosity gamma-ray burst GRB 060218 that plausibly accounts for multiwavelength observations to day 20. The model components are: (1) a long-lived (tj ˜ 3000 s) central engine and accompanying low-luminosity (Lj ˜ 1047 erg s-1), mildly relativistic (γ ˜ 10) jet; (2) a low-mass (˜4 × 10-3 M⊙) envelope surrounding the progenitor star; and (3) a modest amount of dust (AV ˜ 0.1 mag) in the circumstellar or interstellar environment. Blackbody emission from the transparency radius in a low-power jet outflow can fit the prompt thermal X-ray emission, and the non-thermal X-rays and gamma-rays may be produced via Compton scattering of thermal photons from hot leptons in the jet interior or the external shocks. The later mildly relativistic phase of this outflow can produce the radio emission via synchrotron radiation from the forward shock. Meanwhile, interaction of the associated SN 2006aj with a circumstellar envelope extending to ˜1013 cm can explain the early optical emission. The X-ray afterglow can be interpreted as a light echo of the prompt emission from dust at ˜30 pc. Our model is a plausible alternative to that of Nakar, who recently proposed shock breakout of a jet smothered by an extended envelope as the source of prompt emission. Both our results and Nakar's suggest that bursts such as GRB 060218 may originate from unusual progenitors with extended circumstellar envelopes, and that a jet is necessary to decouple the prompt emission from the supernova.
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A double-gaussian, percentile-based method for estimating maximum blood flow velocity.
Marzban, Caren; Illian, Paul R; Morison, David; Mourad, Pierre D
2013-11-01
Transcranial Doppler sonography allows for the estimation of blood flow velocity, whose maximum value, especially at systole, is often of clinical interest. Given that observed values of flow velocity are subject to noise, a useful notion of "maximum" requires a criterion for separating the signal from the noise. All commonly used criteria produce a point estimate (ie, a single value) of maximum flow velocity at any time and therefore convey no information on the distribution or uncertainty of flow velocity. This limitation has clinical consequences especially for patients in vasospasm, whose largest flow velocities can be difficult to measure. Therefore, a method for estimating flow velocity and its uncertainty is desirable. A gaussian mixture model is used to separate the noise from the signal distribution. The time series of a given percentile of the latter, then, provides a flow velocity envelope. This means of estimating the flow velocity envelope naturally allows for displaying several percentiles (e.g., 95th and 99th), thereby conveying uncertainty in the highest flow velocity. Such envelopes were computed for 59 patients and were shown to provide reasonable and useful estimates of the largest flow velocities compared to a standard algorithm. Moreover, we found that the commonly used envelope was generally consistent with the 90th percentile of the signal distribution derived via the gaussian mixture model. Separating the observed distribution of flow velocity into a noise component and a signal component, using a double-gaussian mixture model, allows for the percentiles of the latter to provide meaningful measures of the largest flow velocities and their uncertainty.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Martos, Borja; Ranaudo, Richard; Norton, Billy; Gingras, David; Barnhart, Billy
2014-01-01
Fatal loss-of-control accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this report directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combination of prior information and real-time aerodynamic parameter estimations are shown to provide sufficient information for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during inflight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system was designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. The utility of the ICEPro system for mitigating a potentially hazardous icing condition was evaluated by 29 pilots using the NASA Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device. Results showed that real time assessment cues were effective in reducing the number of potentially hazardous upset events and in lessening exposure to loss of control following an incipient upset condition. Pilot workload with the added ICEPro displays was not measurably affected, but pilot opinion surveys showed that real time cueing greatly improved their awareness of a hazardous aircraft state. The performance of ICEPro system was further evaluated by various levels of sensor noise and atmospheric turbulence.
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Ultraviolet Opacity and Fluorescence in Supernova Envelopes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Hongwei; McCray, Richard
1996-01-01
By the time the expanding envelope of a Type 2 supernova becomes transparent in the optical continuum, most of the gamma-ray luminosity produced by radioactive Fe/Co/Ni clumps propagates into the hydrogen/helium envelope and is deposited there, if at all. The resulting fast electrons excite He 1 and H 1, the two- photon continua of which are the dominant internal sources of ultraviolet radiation. The UV radiation is blocked by scattering in thousands of resonance lines of metals and converted by fluorescence into optical and infrared emission lines that escape freely. We describe results of Monte Carlo calculations that simulate non-LTE scattering and fluorescence in more than five million allowed lines of Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, and Ni. For a model approximating conditions in the envelope of SN 1987A, the calculated emergent spectrum resembles the observed one. For the first 2 yr after explosion, the ultraviolet radiation (lambda less than or approximately equals 3000) is largely blocked and converted into a quasi continuum of many thousands of weak optical and infrared emission lines and some prominent emission features, such as the Ca 2 lambdalambda8600 triplet. Later, as the envelope cools and expands, it becomes more transparent, and an increasing fraction of the luminosity emerges in the UV band.
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The fate of the earth in the red giant envelope of the sun
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldstein, J.
1987-01-01
The effect on the earth of entering the red giant envelope of the future sun is studied. Employing a 30-zone red giant model, the earth orbital decay timescale, neglecting ablation/vaporization, is determined to be of the order of 200 years, rendering earth survival impossible. The effects of ablation/vaporization processes are found to increase the ballistic coefficient of earth, thereby setting the 200-year decay timescale as an upper limit.
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Modeling Forest Structure and Vascular Plant Diversity in Piedmont Forests
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hakkenberg, C.
2014-12-01
When the interacting stressors of climate change and land cover/land use change (LCLUC) overwhelm ecosystem resilience to environmental and climatic variability, forest ecosystems are at increased risk of regime shifts and hyperdynamism in process rates. To meet the growing range of novel biotic and environmental stressors on human-impacted ecosystems, the maintenance of taxonomic diversity and functional redundancy in metacommunities has been proposed as a risk spreading measure ensuring that species critical to landscape ecosystem functioning are available for recruitment as local systems respond to novel conditions. This research is the first in a multi-part study to establish a dynamic, predictive model of the spatio-temporal dynamics of vascular plant diversity in North Carolina Piedmont mixed forests using remotely sensed data inputs. While remote sensing technologies are optimally suited to monitor LCLUC over large areas, direct approaches to the remote measurement of plant diversity remain a challenge. This study tests the efficacy of predicting indices of vascular plant diversity using remotely derived measures of forest structural heterogeneity from aerial LiDAR and high spatial resolution broadband optical imagery in addition to derived topo-environmental variables. Diversity distribution modelling of this sort is predicated upon the idea that environmental filtering of dispersing species help define fine-scale (permeable) environmental envelopes within which biotic structural and compositional factors drive competitive interactions that, in addition to background stochasticity, determine fine-scale alpha diversity. Results reveal that over a range of Piedmont forest communities, increasing structural complexity is positively correlated with measures of plant diversity, though the nature of this relationship varies by environmental conditions and community type. The diversity distribution model is parameterized and cross-validated using three high quality vegetation survey datasets, including Duke Forest Korstian permanent plots, Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA), and the scale transgressive, nested module Carolina Vegetation Survey (CVS).
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Climate insensitivity of treeline in the Canadian Rocky Mountains
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Johnson, E. A.; Macias Fauria, M.
2011-12-01
Successful modelling efforts demonstrate that tree presence over a ~ 200 km2 alpine/subalpine area in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains results from a multi-scale spatiotemporal process competition involving not only growing season temperatures but also topographical shelter, water availability, and substrate stability and availability. The study area was selected to represent the diversity of substrates and geomorphologic processes found in the Canadian Rockies, and ranges in elevation from 1400 to > 2800 meters above sea level. Tree presence was mapped at 10m resolution using a combination of remote sensing imagery (taken in 2008) and intensive ground truthing, and modelled with an ensemble of state-of-the-art environmental envelope models. Explanatory variables chosen represented not only temperature and moisture availability (computed over 1971-2000 climate normals), but also substrate diversity, slope angle and type, geomorphologic features, modelled regolith depth, and concavity/convexity of the terrain. Such variables were meant to serve as proxies for known convergent and divergent processes that occur on steep landscapes and that have profound influence on tree establishment and survival. Model performance was very high and revealed substrate and geomorphology to be the most important explanatory variables for tree presence in the area. Available high-resolution imagery for 1954 enabled the mapping of tree presence over most of the study area and the identification of changes in the distribution of trees over the last nearly six decades. Overall, the only major observed changes were related to post-fire stand recovery, and areas with treeline advance were insignificant at the landscape scale. Tree suitable sites were projected onto high resolution grids of late 21st century climatic conditions predicted by regional climate models driven by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Emissions scenario was A2 (as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), at the higher end of emissions scenarios, and thus at the higher end of forecasted temperature increases. Projected changes in tree site availability were minimal at the landscape scale, as the presence of trees in the uppermost part of these forests largely depends on the existence of suitable sites largely linked to topography. Such places are the result of geomorphologic processes acting on a framework set by the structural geology of the region, and thus the appearance of new sites suitable for tree growth does not depend on short (i.e. yearly to decadal) time scales but on longer ones (i.e. centuries to millennia). This work has the strength of studying treeline over a whole area, thus avoiding potential biases in the regional representativity of local study sites, and warns against careless upscaling of site-based studies. Moreover, we suggest that the term 'treeline' is weak at a high-resolution landscape scale in our study area (i.e. young glaciated terrain) because the distribution of trees over the landscape is spatially irregular and most of the processes enabling or preventing tree presence occur over its whole elevational range.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iwaki, A.; Fujiwara, H.
2012-12-01
Broadband ground motion computations of scenario earthquakes are often based on hybrid methods that are the combinations of deterministic approach in lower frequency band and stochastic approach in higher frequency band. Typical computation methods for low-frequency and high-frequency (LF and HF, respectively) ground motions are the numerical simulations, such as finite-difference and finite-element methods based on three-dimensional velocity structure model, and the stochastic Green's function method, respectively. In such hybrid methods, LF and HF wave fields are generated through two different methods that are completely independent of each other, and are combined at the matching frequency. However, LF and HF wave fields are essentially not independent as long as they are from the same event. In this study, we focus on the relation among acceleration envelopes at different frequency bands, and attempt to synthesize HF ground motion using the information extracted from LF ground motion, aiming to propose a new method for broad-band strong motion prediction. Our study area is Kanto area, Japan. We use the K-NET and KiK-net surface acceleration data and compute RMS envelope at four frequency bands: 0.5-1.0 Hz, 1.0-2.0 Hz, 2.0-4.0 Hz, .0-8.0 Hz, and 8.0-16.0 Hz. Taking the ratio of the envelopes of adjacent bands, we find that the envelope ratios have stable shapes at each site. The empirical envelope-ratio characteristics are combined with low-frequency envelope of the target earthquake to synthesize HF ground motion. We have applied the method to M5-class earthquakes and a M7 target earthquake that occurred in the vicinity of Kanto area, and successfully reproduced the observed HF ground motion of the target earthquake. The method can be applied to a broad band ground motion simulation for a scenario earthquake by combining numerically-computed low-frequency (~1 Hz) ground motion with the empirical envelope ratio characteristics to generate broadband ground motion. The strengths of the proposed method are that: 1) it is based on observed ground motion characteristics, 2) it takes full advantage of precise velocity structure model, and 3) it is simple and easy to apply.
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Estimating envelope thermal characteristics from single point in time thermal images
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alshatshati, Salahaldin Faraj
Energy efficiency programs implemented nationally in the U.S. by utilities have rendered savings which have cost on average 0.03/kWh. This cost is still well below generation costs. However, as the lowest cost energy efficiency measures are adopted, this the cost effectiveness of further investment declines. Thus there is a need to more effectively find the most opportunities for savings regionally and nationally, so that the greatest cost effectiveness in implementing energy efficiency can be achieved. Integral to this process. are at scale energy audits. However, on-site building energy audits process are expensive, in the range of US1.29/m2-$5.37/m2 and there are an insufficient number of professionals to perform the audits. Energy audits that can be conducted at-scale and at low cost are needed. Research is presented that addresses at community-wide scales characterization of building envelope thermal characteristics via drive-by and fly-over GPS linked thermal imaging. A central question drives this research: Can single point-in-time thermal images be used to infer U-values and thermal capacitances of walls and roofs? Previous efforts to use thermal images to estimate U-values have been limited to rare steady exterior weather conditions. The approaches posed here are based upon the development two models first is a dynamic model of a building envelope component with unknown U-value and thermal capacitance. The weather conditions prior to the thermal image are used as inputs to the model. The model is solved to determine the exterior surface temperature, ultimately predicted the temperature at the thermal measurement time. The model U-value and thermal capacitance are tuned in order to force the error between the predicted surface temperature and the measured surface temperature from thermal imaging to be near zero. This model is developed simply to show that such a model cannot be relied upon to accurately estimate the U-value. The second is a data-based methodology. This approach integrates the exterior surface temperature measurements, historical utility data, and easily accessible or potentially easily accessible housing data. A Random Forest model is developed from a training subset of residences for which the envelope U-value is known. This model is used to predict the envelope U-value for a validation set of houses with unknown U-value. Demonstrated is an ability to estimate the wall/roof U-value with an R-squared value in the range of 0.97 and 0.96 respectively, using as few as 9 and 24 training houses for respectively wall and ceiling U-value estimation. The implication of this research is significant, offering the possibility of auditing residences remotely at-scale via aerial and drive-by thermal imaging.
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The chemical structure of the Class 0 protostellar envelope NGC 1333 IRAS 4A⋆⋆
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koumpia, E.; Semenov, D. A.; van der Tak, F. F. S.; Boogert, A. C. A.; Caux, E.
2017-07-01
Context. It is not well known what drives the chemistry of a protostellar envelope, in particular the role of the stellar mass and the protostellar outflows on the chemical enrichment of such environments. Aims: We study the chemical structure of the Class 0 protostellar envelope NGC 1333 IRAS 4A in order to (I) investigate the influence of the outflows on the chemistry; (II) constrain the age of our studied object; (III) compare it with a typical high-mass protostellar envelope. Methods: In our analysis we use JCMT line mapping (360-373 GHz) and HIFI pointed spectra (626.01-721.48 GHz). To study the influence of the outflow on the degree of deuteration, we compare JCMT maps of HCO+ and DCO+ with non-LTE (RADEX) models in a region that spatially covers the outflow activity of IRAS 4A. To study the envelope chemistry, we derive empirical molecular abundance profiles for the observed species using the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code (RATRAN) and adopting a 1D dust density/temperature profile from the literature. We use a combination of constant abundance profiles and abundance profiles that include jumps at two radii (T 100 K or T 30 K) to fit our observations. We compare our best-fit observed abundance profiles with the predictions from the time dependent gas grain chemical code (ALCHEMIC). Results: We detect CO, 13CO, C18O, CS, HCN, HCO+, N2H+, H2CO, CH3OH, H2O, H2S, DCO+, HDCO, D2CO, SO, SO2, SiO, HNC, CN, C2H and OCS. We divide the detected lines in three groups based on their line profiles: a) broad emission (FWHM = 4-11 km s-1), b) narrow emission (FWHM< 4 km s-1), and c) showing absorption features. The broad component is indicative of outflow activity, the narrow component arises from dynamically quiescent gas (I.e. envelope) and the absorption is a result of infall motions or the presence of foreground material. Our maps provide information about the spatial and velocity structure of many of the molecules mentioned above, including the deuterated species, making it possible to distinguish between envelope and outflow structures also spatially. The derived abundance profiles are based only on the narrow component (envelope) of the species and are reproduced by a 1D pseudo-time-dependent gas-grain chemical model for the outer envelope, with the exceptions of HCN, HNC, CN. These species along with the CO abundance require an enhanced UV field which points towards an outflow cavity. The abundances with respect to H2 are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than those observed in the high mass protostellar envelope (AFGL 2591), while they are found to be similar within factors of a few when they are estimated with respect to CO. Differences in UV radiation intensity may also be responsible for such chemical differentiation, but temperature differences seem a more plausible explanation, especially the absence of a freeze-out zone in the high mass case. The CH3OH modeled abundance profile points towards an age of ≥4 × 104 yr for IRAS 4A. The spatial distribution of H2D+ differs from that of other deuterated species (I.e. DCO+, HDCO and D2CO), indicating an origin from a colder layer (<20 K) in the foreground, which is not seen in any other tracer. Conclusions: The observed abundances can be explained by passive heating towards the high mass protostellar envelope, while the presence of UV cavity channels become more important toward the low mass protostellar envelope (e.g. CO, HCO+). Based on Herschel observations. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.Reduced data (FITS files) are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/603/A88
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Liu, Xiang; Liu, Jia
2016-01-01
This paper employs a three-stage approach to estimate low carbon economy efficiency in the largest twenty CO2 emitting countries from 2000 to 2012. The approach includes the following three stages: (1) use of a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with undesirable output to estimate the low carbon economy efficiency and calculate the input and output slacks; (2) use of a stochastic frontier approach to eliminate the impacts of external environment variables on these slacks; (3) re-estimation of the efficiency with adjusted inputs and outputs to reflect the capacity of the government to develop a low carbon economy. The results indicate that the low carbon economy efficiency performances in these countries had worsened during the studied period. The performances in the third stage are larger than that in the first stage. Moreover, in general, low carbon economy efficiency in Annex I countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is better than that in Non-Annex I countries. However, the gap of the average efficiency score between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries in the first stage is smaller than that in the third stage. It implies that the external environment variables show greater influence on Non-Annex I countries than that on Annex I countries. These external environment variables should be taken into account in the transnational negotiation of the responsibility of promoting CO2 reductions. Most importantly, the developed countries (mostly in Annex I) should help the developing countries (mostly in Non-Annex I) to reduce carbon emission by opening or expanding the trade, such as encouraging the import and export of the energy-saving and sharing emission reduction technology. PMID:27834890
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Liu, Xiang; Liu, Jia
2016-11-09
This paper employs a three-stage approach to estimate low carbon economy efficiency in the largest twenty CO₂ emitting countries from 2000 to 2012. The approach includes the following three stages: (1) use of a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with undesirable output to estimate the low carbon economy efficiency and calculate the input and output slacks; (2) use of a stochastic frontier approach to eliminate the impacts of external environment variables on these slacks; (3) re-estimation of the efficiency with adjusted inputs and outputs to reflect the capacity of the government to develop a low carbon economy. The results indicate that the low carbon economy efficiency performances in these countries had worsened during the studied period. The performances in the third stage are larger than that in the first stage. Moreover, in general, low carbon economy efficiency in Annex I countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is better than that in Non-Annex I countries. However, the gap of the average efficiency score between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries in the first stage is smaller than that in the third stage. It implies that the external environment variables show greater influence on Non-Annex I countries than that on Annex I countries. These external environment variables should be taken into account in the transnational negotiation of the responsibility of promoting CO₂ reductions. Most importantly, the developed countries (mostly in Annex I) should help the developing countries (mostly in Non-Annex I) to reduce carbon emission by opening or expanding the trade, such as encouraging the import and export of the energy-saving and sharing emission reduction technology.
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Linearized aerodynamic and control law models of the X-29A airplane and comparison with flight data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bosworth, John T.
1992-01-01
Flight control system design and analysis for aircraft rely on mathematical models of the vehicle dynamics. In addition to a six degree of freedom nonlinear simulation, the X-29A flight controls group developed a set of programs that calculate linear perturbation models throughout the X-29A flight envelope. The models include the aerodynamics as well as flight control system dynamics and were used for stability, controllability, and handling qualities analysis. These linear models were compared to flight test results to help provide a safe flight envelope expansion. A description is given of the linear models at three flight conditions and two flight control system modes. The models are presented with a level of detail that would allow the reader to reproduce the linear results if desired. Comparison between the response of the linear model and flight measured responses are presented to demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of the linear models' ability to predict flight dynamics.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nielsen, M. B.; Schunker, H.; Gizon, L.; Schou, J.; Ball, W. H.
2017-06-01
Context. Rotational shear in Sun-like stars is thought to be an important ingredient in models of stellar dynamos. Thanks to helioseismology, rotation in the Sun is characterized well, but the interior rotation profiles of other Sun-like stars are not so well constrained. Until recently, measurements of rotation in Sun-like stars have focused on the mean rotation, but little progress has been made on measuring or even placing limits on differential rotation. Aims: Using asteroseismic measurements of rotation we aim to constrain the radial shear in five Sun-like stars observed by the NASA Kepler mission: KIC 004914923, KIC 005184732, KIC 006116048, KIC 006933899, and KIC 010963065. Methods: We used stellar structure models for these five stars from previous works. These models provide the mass density, mode eigenfunctions, and the convection zone depth, which we used to compute the sensitivity kernels for the rotational frequency splitting of the modes. We used these kernels as weights in a parametric model of the stellar rotation profile of each star, where we allowed different rotation rates for the radiative interior and the convective envelope. This parametric model was incorporated into a fit to the oscillation power spectrum of each of the five Kepler stars. This fit included a prior on the rotation of the envelope, estimated from the rotation of surface magnetic activity measured from the photometric variability. Results: The asteroseismic measurements without the application of priors are unable to place meaningful limits on the radial shear. Using a prior on the envelope rotation enables us to constrain the interior rotation rate and thus the radial shear. In the five cases that we studied, the interior rotation rate does not differ from the envelope by more than approximately ± 30%. Uncertainties in the rotational splittings are too large to unambiguously determine the sign of the radial shear.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kargel, J. S.
2006-12-01
Global climate change in the past century has nearly pushed the envelope of all prior natural changes experienced since the dawn of civilization, and all plausible projections have climate shooting completely out of this envelope this century. Some plausible projections for the cumulative magnitude of climatic change this and next century are, at the upper range of these projections, comparable to the shift that ended the Ice Age and would place Earth in a "hot house" unlike anything going back 55 million years. Much life will survive and thrive through these changes, but if it is civilization we are concerned with, then we should understand and reduce the rate and long-term cumulative impact of predictable climate change and to reduce the chances of accidental tripping of a hair-trigger mechanism of rapid climate change. Coping with (even deriving some benefit from) inevitable climate changes, and forestalling even more disruptive changes, can only be accomplished through informed planning. A critical society-shaping issue is who will have and utilize the knowledge of climatic impacts. Since climate change affects all of us, the observational tools and research pertaining the Earth's changing condition should be in the hands of the masses of people: publicly financed and unclassified. A trickier issue is how to deal with information that particular cities or countries are at special risk, especially when the risk might be imminent and catastrophic. How do we maximize the efficiency of socioeconomic changes that will be needed to adapt? How do we overcome inertia and business as usual without inducing unintended consequences, such as panic? How should governments deal with this type of information? How should individual scientists deal with discoveries about the changing world that seem to pose special risks for certain people on the century timescale, the decadal scale, or this year? Natural hazards, such as volcanism, earthquakes, and hurricanes are hard enough to deal with, but when humans—some humans more than others—are the prime causes of new hazards, and some humans more than others are the victims of those anthropogenic changes to the Earth, it becomes politically charged. One approach is to bury one's head in the sand and ignore the issues; this has been substantially NASA's approach with regard to natural hazards that bear on matters of political import—such as climate change. The risks of doing the honorable thing and to deal squarely with information at hand are huge, both for agencies and individual scientists. No matter what funding agencies say, scientists must answer a higher calling to do the right thing. Rarely does the right thing ever involve the news media on such frightful matters. I will review two special cases of how NOT to do things in my area of glaciation and glacial hazards—in one case, USGS attempted to delete a reference to the intergovernmental panel on climate change that was included in a draft of a press release; in another case, unsubstantiated warnings by JPL of imminent danger from a generally dangerous glacial lake in Peru did not go through peer review or the national scientific or civil authorities in Peru, and it resulted in needless public panic. Climate change faces every human alive and will have increasing impacts on the next several generations. Major funding agencies must provide the resources for robust, unclassified, objective research in climate change and its impacts, including hazards, and the observing tools to enable it, especially in areas where humans are the underlying cause and where mitigative action is possible. Scientists must exercise special responsibility and sensitivity in dealing with such politically charged issues.
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The possible nature of socket stars in H II regions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Castelaz, Michael W.
1990-01-01
Close inspection of faint stars (V of about 14 mag) in H II regions show that they appear to be surrounded by circumstellar envelopes of about 10 arcsecs in diameter (as reported by Feibelman in 1989). The present premise is that the sockets are envelopes of obscuring dust which should emit a measurable amount of infrared radiation based on a simple thermal equilibrium model. A search of literature shows that, of 36 socket stars listed by Feibelman, 17 have been measured in the infrared. Of the 17, 14 show excess IR emission. This is very strong evidence that the socket stars are really stars with circumstellar envelopes. Socket stars may be a new type of astronomical object or well-known astronomical objects in environments or evolutionary states not previously seen.
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The Spectropolarimetric Evolution of V838 Mon
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wisniewski, John P.
2007-01-01
I review photo-polarimetric and spectropolarimetric observations of V838 Mon, which revealed that it had an asymmetrical inner circumstellar envelope following its 2nd photometric outburst. Electron scattering, modified by preor post-scattering H absorption, is the polarizing mechanism in V838 Mon's envelope. The simplest geometry implied by these observations is that of a spheroidal shell, flattened by at least 20% and having a projected position angle on the sky of approx. 37 degrees. Analysis of V838 Mon's polarized flux reveals that this electron scattering shell lies interior to the envelope region in which Halpha and Ca II triplet emission originates. To date, none of the theoretical models proposed for V838 Mon have demonstrated that they can reproduce the evolution of V838 Mon's inner circumstellar environment, as probed by spectropolarimetry.
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Interior thermal insulation systems for historical building envelopes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jerman, Miloš; Solař, Miloš; Černý, Robert
2017-11-01
The design specifics of interior thermal insulation systems applied for historical building envelopes are described. The vapor-tight systems and systems based on capillary thermal insulation materials are taken into account as two basic options differing in building-physical considerations. The possibilities of hygrothermal analysis of renovated historical envelopes including laboratory methods, computer simulation techniques, and in-situ tests are discussed. It is concluded that the application of computational models for hygrothermal assessment of interior thermal insulation systems should always be performed with a particular care. On one hand, they present a very effective tool for both service life assessment and possible planning of subsequent reconstructions. On the other, the hygrothermal analysis of any historical building can involve quite a few potential uncertainties which may affect negatively the accuracy of obtained results.
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simulation component models within EnergyPlus and OpenStudio. Prior to working at NREL, Anthony was a member building envelope and developed attic and roof simulation tools. His background is in modeling heat
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, Zhijing; Ma, Kai; Wang, Zhijun; Wu, Jun; Wang, Tao; Zhuge, Jingchang
2018-03-01
A blade is one of the most important components of an aircraft engine. Due to its high manufacturing costs, it is indispensable to come up with methods for repairing damaged blades. In order to obtain a surface model of the blades, this paper proposes a modeling method by using speckle patterns based on the virtual stereo vision system. Firstly, blades are sprayed evenly creating random speckle patterns and point clouds from blade surfaces can be calculated by using speckle patterns based on the virtual stereo vision system. Secondly, boundary points are obtained in the way of varied step lengths according to curvature and are fitted to get a blade surface envelope with a cubic B-spline curve. Finally, the surface model of blades is established with the envelope curves and the point clouds. Experimental results show that the surface model of aircraft engine blades is fair and accurate.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fisher, R.; Hoffmann, W. A.; Muszala, S.
2014-12-01
The introduction of second-generation dynamic vegetation models - which simulate the distribution of light resources between plant types along the vertical canopy profile, and therefore facilitate the representation of plant competition explicitly - is a large increase in the complexity and fidelity with which the terrestrial biosphere is abstracted into Earth System Models. In this new class of model, biome boundaries are predicted as the emergent properties of plant physiology, and are therefore sensitive to the high-dimensional parameterizations of plant functional traits. These new approaches offer the facility to quantitatively test ecophysiological hypotheses of plant distribution at large scales, a field which remains surprisingly under-developed. Here we describe experiments conducted with the Community Land Model Ecosystem Demography component, CLM(ED), in which we reduce the complexity of the problem by testing how individual plant functional trait changes to control the location of biome boundaries between functional types. Specifically, we investigate which physiological trade-offs determine the boundary between frequently burned savanna and forest biomes, and attempt to distinguish how each strategic life-history trade-off (carbon storage, bark investment, re-sprouting strategy) contributes towards the maintenance of sharp geographical gradients between fire adapted and typically inflammable closed canopy ecosystems. This study forms part of the planning for a model-inspired fire manipulation experiment at the cerrado-forest boundary in South-Eastern Brazil, and the results will be used to guide future data-collection and analysis strategies.
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What is Neptune's D/H ratio really telling us about its water abundance?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ali-Dib, Mohamad; Lakhlani, Gunjan
2018-05-01
We investigate the deep-water abundance of Neptune using a simple two-component (core + envelope) toy model. The free parameters of the model are the total mass of heavy elements in the planet (Z), the mass fraction of Z in the envelope (fenv), and the D/H ratio of the accreted building blocks (D/Hbuild).We systematically search the allowed parameter space on a grid and constrain it using Neptune's bulk carbon abundance, D/H ratio, and interior structure models. Assuming solar C/O ratio and cometary D/H for the accreted building blocks are forming the planet, we can fit all of the constraints if less than ˜15 per cent of Z is in the envelope (f_{env}^{median} ˜ 7 per cent), and the rest is locked in a solid core. This model predicts a maximum bulk oxygen abundance in Neptune of 65× solar value. If we assume a C/O of 0.17, corresponding to clathrate-hydrates building blocks, we predict a maximum oxygen abundance of 200× solar value with a median value of ˜140. Thus, both cases lead to oxygen abundance significantly lower than the preferred value of Cavalié et al. (˜540× solar), inferred from model-dependent deep CO observations. Such high-water abundances are excluded by our simple but robust model. We attribute this discrepancy to our imperfect understanding of either the interior structure of Neptune or the chemistry of the primordial protosolar nebula.
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Speech perception in noise with a harmonic complex excited vocoder.
Churchill, Tyler H; Kan, Alan; Goupell, Matthew J; Ihlefeld, Antje; Litovsky, Ruth Y
2014-04-01
A cochlear implant (CI) presents band-pass-filtered acoustic envelope information by modulating current pulse train levels. Similarly, a vocoder presents envelope information by modulating an acoustic carrier. By studying how normal hearing (NH) listeners are able to understand degraded speech signals with a vocoder, the parameters that best simulate electric hearing and factors that might contribute to the NH-CI performance difference may be better understood. A vocoder with harmonic complex carriers (fundamental frequency, f0 = 100 Hz) was used to study the effect of carrier phase dispersion on speech envelopes and intelligibility. The starting phases of the harmonic components were randomly dispersed to varying degrees prior to carrier filtering and modulation. NH listeners were tested on recognition of a closed set of vocoded words in background noise. Two sets of synthesis filters simulated different amounts of current spread in CIs. Results showed that the speech vocoded with carriers whose starting phases were maximally dispersed was the most intelligible. Superior speech understanding may have been a result of the flattening of the dispersed-phase carrier's intrinsic temporal envelopes produced by the large number of interacting components in the high-frequency channels. Cross-correlogram analyses of auditory nerve model simulations confirmed that randomly dispersing the carrier's component starting phases resulted in better neural envelope representation. However, neural metrics extracted from these analyses were not found to accurately predict speech recognition scores for all vocoded speech conditions. It is possible that central speech understanding mechanisms are insensitive to the envelope-fine structure dichotomy exploited by vocoders.
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Organic Molecules in Oxygen-Rich Circumstellar Envelopes: Methanol and Hydrocarbons
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Charnley, S. B.; Tielens, A. G. G. M.; Kress, M. E.
1995-01-01
The existence of anomalously high abundances of gaseous CH4 has been invoked to explain the unexpectedly high abundances of the carbon-bearing molecules HCN and H2CO in the outflows from O-rich red giants. We have modelled the chemistry that proceeds in the outer envelope when CH4 is injected from the inner envelope. We find that photolysis by the interstellar radiation field drives an ion-neutral chemistry which produces several organic molecules. The calculated abundances of CH3OH, C2H and C2 can be comparable to those calculated for H2CO and HCN. Species such as C2H4, C2H2 and CH3CN can also be abundant. A search for CH3OH and C2H in several O-rich outflows known to exhibit strong HCN emission is needed. As it derives entirely from the CH4 photochain, is insensitive to the envelope temperature distribution, and has accessible transitions at millimetre wavelengths, the detection of the C2H radical would provide further indirect support for the presence of the hypothesized methane.
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Linear and nonlinear transparencies in binocular vision.
Langley, K; Fleet, D J; Hibbard, P B
1998-01-01
When the product of a vertical square-wave grating (contrast envelope) and a horizontal sinusoidal grating (carrier) are viewed binocularly with different disparity cues they can be perceived transparently at different depths. We found, however, that the transparency was asymmetric; it only occurred when the envelope was perceived to be the overlaying surface. When the same two signals were added, the percept of transparency was symmetrical; either signal could be seen in front of or behind the other at different depths. Differences between these multiplicative and additive signal combinations were examined in two experiments. In one, we measured disparity thresholds for transparency as a function of the spatial frequency of the envelope. In the other, we measured disparity discrimination thresholds. In both experiments the thresholds for the multiplicative condition, unlike the additive condition, showed distinct minima at low envelope frequencies. The different sensitivity curves found for multiplicative and additive signal combinations suggest that different processes mediated the disparity signal. The data are consistent with a two-channel model of binocular matching, with multiple depth cues represented at single retinal locations. PMID:9802240
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Spectral envelope sensitivity of musical instrument sounds.
Gunawan, David; Sen, D
2008-01-01
It is well known that the spectral envelope is a perceptually salient attribute in musical instrument timbre perception. While a number of studies have explored discrimination thresholds for changes to the spectral envelope, the question of how sensitivity varies as a function of center frequency and bandwidth for musical instruments has yet to be addressed. In this paper a two-alternative forced-choice experiment was conducted to observe perceptual sensitivity to modifications made on trumpet, clarinet and viola sounds. The experiment involved attenuating 14 frequency bands for each instrument in order to determine discrimination thresholds as a function of center frequency and bandwidth. The results indicate that perceptual sensitivity is governed by the first few harmonics and sensitivity does not improve when extending the bandwidth any higher. However, sensitivity was found to decrease if changes were made only to the higher frequencies and continued to decrease as the distorted bandwidth was widened. The results are analyzed and discussed with respect to two other spectral envelope discrimination studies in the literature as well as what is predicted from a psychoacoustic model.
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Safe Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on a Physical Approach
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lombaerts, Thomas J. J.; Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John T.
2013-01-01
This paper discusses a computationally efficient algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. This approach differs from others since it is physically inspired. This more transparent approach allows interpreting data in each step, and it is assumed that these physical models based upon flight dynamics theory will therefore facilitate certification for future real life applications.
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Yang, C; Jiang, W; Chen, D-H; Adiga, U; Ng, E G; Chiu, W
2009-03-01
The three-dimensional reconstruction of macromolecules from two-dimensional single-particle electron images requires determination and correction of the contrast transfer function (CTF) and envelope function. A computational algorithm based on constrained non-linear optimization is developed to estimate the essential parameters in the CTF and envelope function model simultaneously and automatically. The application of this estimation method is demonstrated with focal series images of amorphous carbon film as well as images of ice-embedded icosahedral virus particles suspended across holes.
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An Adaptive Nonlinear Aircraft Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Approach for Online Applications
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schuet, Stefan R.; Lombaerts, Thomas Jan; Acosta, Diana; Wheeler, Kevin; Kaneshige, John
2014-01-01
A nonlinear aircraft model is presented and used to develop an overall unified robust and adaptive approach to passive trim and maneuverability envelope estimation with uncertainty quantification. The concept of time scale separation makes this method suitable for the online characterization of altered safe maneuvering limitations after impairment. The results can be used to provide pilot feedback and/or be combined with flight planning, trajectory generation, and guidance algorithms to help maintain safe aircraft operations in both nominal and off-nominal scenarios.
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Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.
2014-12-01
This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.
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Sleeper Cab Climate Control Load Reduction for Long-Haul Truck Rest Period Idling
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lustbader, J. A.; Kreutzer, C.; Adelman, S.
2015-04-29
Annual fuel use for long-haul truck rest period idling is estimated at 667 million gallons in the United States. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s CoolCab project aims to reduce heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads and resulting fuel use from rest period idling by working closely with industry to design efficient long-haul truck climate control systems while maintaining occupant comfort. Enhancing the thermal performance of cab/sleepers will enable smaller, lighter, and more cost-effective idle reduction solutions. In order for candidate idle reduction technologies to be implemented at the original equipment manufacturer and fleet level, theirmore » effectiveness must be quantified. To address this need, a number of promising candidate technologies were evaluated through experimentation and modeling to determine their effectiveness in reducing rest period HVAC loads. For this study, load reduction strategies were grouped into the focus areas of solar envelope, occupant environment, and conductive pathways. The technologies selected for a complete-cab package of technologies were “ultra-white” paint, advanced insulation, and advanced curtains. To measure the impact of these technologies, a nationally-averaged solar-weighted reflectivity long-haul truck paint color was determined and applied to the baseline test vehicle. Using the complete-cab package of technologies, electrical energy consumption for long-haul truck daytime rest period air conditioning was reduced by at least 35% for summer weather conditions in Colorado. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's CoolCalc model was then used to extrapolate the performance of the thermal load reduction technologies nationally for 161 major U.S. cities using typical weather conditions for each location over an entire year.« less
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The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.
2017-12-01
Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.
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Application of data envelopment analysis in measuring the efficiency of mutual fund
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nik, Marzieh Geramian; Mihanzadeh, Hooman; Izadifar, Mozhgan; Nik, Babak Geramian
2015-05-01
The growth of mutual fund industry during the past decades emphasizes the importance of this investment vehicle particularly in prosperity of financial markets and in turn, financial growth of each country. Therefore, evaluating the relative efficiency of mutual funds as investment tool is of importance. In this study, a combined model of DEA (data envelopment analysis), and goal programming (GoDEA) approaches contributes widely to analyze the return efficiency of Mutual Funds in an attempt to separate efficient and inefficient Funds as well as identifying the inefficiency resources. Mixed asset local funds, which are managed jointly by CIMB and Public Mutual Berhad, have been selected for the purpose of this paper. As a result, Public Small Cap Fund (P Small Cap) is regarded as the most efficient mutual fund during the period of study. The integrated model aims to first guide investors to choose the best performing fund among other mutual funds, secondly provides the realistic and appropriate benchmark in compare to other classic method, and finally confirms the utility of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as decision-making tool.
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Dynamic nuclear envelope phenotype in rats overexpressing mutated human torsinA protein.
Yu-Taeger, Libo; Gaiser, Viktoria; Lotzer, Larissa; Roenisch, Tina; Fabry, Benedikt Timo; Stricker-Shaver, Janice; Casadei, Nicolas; Walter, Michael; Schaller, Martin; Riess, Olaf; Nguyen, Huu Phuc; Ott, Thomas; Grundmann-Hauser, Kathrin
2018-05-08
A three-base-pair deletion in the human TOR1A gene is causative for the most common form of primary dystonia, the early-onset dystonia type 1 (DYT1 dystonia). The pathophysiological consequences of this mutation are still unknown.To study the pathology of the mutant torsinA (TOR1A) protein, we have generated a transgenic rat line that overexpresses the human mutant protein under the control of the human TOR1A promoter. This new animal model was phenotyped with several approaches, including behavioral tests and neuropathological analyses. A motor phenotype and cellular and ultrastructural key features of torsinA pathology were found in this new transgenic rat line supporting that it can be used as a model system for investigating the disease development. Analyses of mutant TOR1A protein expression in various brain regions also showed a dynamic expression pattern and a reversible nuclear envelope pathology. These findings suggest the differential vulnerabilities of distinct neuronal subpopulations. Furthermore the reversibility of the nuclear envelope pathology might be a therapeutic target to treat the disease. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
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Structural response and gas dynamics of an airship exposed to a nuclear detonation. Final report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gilstad, D.A.; Weeber, C.G.; Kviljord, A.
1960-04-25
Four Model ZSG-3 airships, U. S. Navy Bureau of Aeronautics Nos. 40, 46, 77, and 92, participated during Operation Plumbbob to determine the response characteristics of the Model ZSG-3 airship when subjected to a nuclear detonation in order to establish criteria for safe escape distances for airship delivery of antisubmarine warfare special weapons. Restrained response data for 0.40-psi overpressure input were obtained during Shot Franklin with the ZSG-3 No. 77 moored tail to the blast. Unrestrained response data for 0.75-psi overpressure input were obtained during Shot Stokes with the ZSG-3 No. 40 free ballooned, tail to the blast, 300 feetmore » aboveground. The first airship exposed to overpressure experienced a structural failure of the nose cone when it was rammed into the mooring mast, together with a tear of the forward ballonet which necessitated deflation of the envelope. The second airship broke in half and crashed following a circumferential failure of the envelope originating at the bottom of the envelope, forward of the car.« less
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Discovery of methyl silane and confirmation of silyl cyanide in IRC +10216.
Cernicharo, J; Agúndez, M; Velilla Prieto, L; Guélin, M; Pardo, J R; Kahane, C; Marka, C; Kramer, C; Navarro, S; Quintana-Lacaci, G; Fonfría, J P; Marcelino, N; Tercero, B; Moreno, E; Massalkhi, S; Santander-García, M; McCarthy, M C; Gottlieb, C A; Alonso, J L
2017-10-01
We report the discovery in space of methyl silane, CH 3 SiH 3 , from observations of ten rotational transitions between 80 and 350 GHz ( J u from 4 to 16) with the IRAM 30 m radio telescope. The molecule was observed in the envelope of the C-star IRC +10216. The observed profiles and our models for the expected emission of methyl silane suggest that the it is formed in the inner zones of the circumstellar envelope, 1-40 R * , with an abundance of (0.5-1) × 10 -8 relative to H 2 . We also observed several rotational transitions of silyl cyanide (SiH 3 CN), confirming its presence in IRC +10216 in particular, and in space in general. Our models indicate that silyl cyanide is also formed in the inner regions of the envelope, around 20 R * , with an abundance relative to H 2 of 6×10 -10 . The possible formation mechanisms of both species are discussed. We also searched for related chemical species but only upper limits could be obtained.
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Transparent Helium in Stripped Envelope Supernovae
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piro, Anthony L.; Morozova, Viktoriya S.
2014-09-01
Using simple arguments based on photometric light curves and velocity evolution, we propose that some stripped envelope supernovae (SNe) show signs that a significant fraction of their helium is effectively transparent. The main pieces of evidence are the relatively low velocities with little velocity evolution, as are expected deep inside an exploding star, along with temperatures that are too low to ionize helium. This means that the helium should not contribute to the shaping of the main SN light curve, and thus the total helium mass may be difficult to measure from simple light curve modeling. Conversely, such modeling may be more useful for constraining the mass of the carbon/oxygen core of the SN progenitor. Other stripped envelope SNe show higher velocities and larger velocity gradients, which require an additional opacity source (perhaps the mixing of heavier elements or radioactive nickel) to prevent the helium from being transparent. We discuss ways in which similar analysis can provide insights into the differences and similarities between SNe Ib and Ic, which will lead to a better understanding of their respective formation mechanisms.
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Brownian dynamics simulation of fission yeast mitotic spindle formation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Edelmaier, Christopher
2014-03-01
The mitotic spindle segregates chromosomes during mitosis. The dynamics that establish bipolar spindle formation are not well understood. We have developed a computational model of fission-yeast mitotic spindle formation using Brownian dynamics and kinetic Monte Carlo methods. Our model includes rigid, dynamic microtubules, a spherical nuclear envelope, spindle pole bodies anchored in the nuclear envelope, and crosslinkers and crosslinking motor proteins. Crosslinkers and crosslinking motor proteins attach and detach in a grand canonical ensemble, and exert forces and torques on the attached microtubules. We have modeled increased affinity for crosslinking motor attachment to antiparallel microtubule pairs, and stabilization of microtubules in the interpolar bundle. We study parameters controlling the stability of the interpolar bundle and assembly of a bipolar spindle from initially adjacent spindle-pole bodies.
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25 CFR 90.43 - Canvass of election returns.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-04-01
... the inner envelope, the voter fails to sign the statement appearing on the outer envelope, and for failure to seal the inner envelope or enclose the inner envelope in the outer envelope. Votes cast for... all other ballots have been counted, the sealed inner envelopes containing the absentee ballots shall...
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The Interiors of Jupiter and Saturn
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Helled, Ravit
2018-05-01
Probing the interiors of the giant planets in our Solar System is not an easy task. This requires a set of observations combined with theoretical models that are used to infer the planetary composition and its depth dependence. The masses of Jupiter and Saturn are 318 and 96 Earth masses, respectively, and since a few decades, we know that they mostly consist of hydrogen and helium. It is the mass of heavy elements (all elements heavier than helium) that is not well determined, as well as its distribution within the planets. While the heavy elements are not the dominating materials in Jupiter and Saturn, they are the key for our understanding of their formation and evolution histories. The planetary internal structure is inferred to fit the available observational constraints including the planetary masses, radii, 1-bar temperatures, rotation rates, and gravitational fields. Then, using theoretical equations of states (EOSs) for hydrogen, helium, their mixtures, and heavier elements (typically rocks and/or ices), a structure model is developed. However, there is no unique solution for the planetary structure, and the results depend on the used EOSs and the model assumptions imposed by the modeler. Standard interior models of Jupiter and Saturn include three main regions: (1) the central region (core) that consists of heavy elements, (2) an inner metallic hydrogen envelope that is helium rich, and (3) an outer molecular hydrogen envelope depleted with helium. The distribution of heavy elements can be either homogenous or discontinuous between the two envelopes. Major model assumptions that can affect the derived internal structure include the number of layers, the heat transport mechanism within the planet (and its entropy), the nature of the core (compact vs. diluted), and the location/pressure where the envelopes are divided. Alternative structure models assume a less distinct division between the layers and/or a less non-homogenous distribution of the heavy elements. The fact that the behavior of hydrogen at high pressures and temperatures in not perfectly known, and that helium separates from hydrogen at the deep interior add sources of uncertainties to the interior model. Today, with accurate measurements of the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn from the Juno and Cassini missions, structure models can be further constrained. At the same time, these measurements introduce new challenges and open question for planetary modelers.
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IRC +10 216 in 3-D: morphology of a TP-AGB star envelope
Guélin, M.; Patel, N.A.; Bremer, M.; Cernicharo, J.; Castro-Carrizo, A.; Pety, J.; Fonfría, J.P.; Agúndez, M.; Santander-García, M.; Quintana-Lacaci, G.; Velilla Prieto, L.; Blundell, R.; Thaddeus, P.
2017-01-01
During their late pulsating phase, AGB stars expel most of their mass in the form of massive dusty envelopes, an event that largely controls the composition of interstellar matter. The envelopes, however, are distant and opaque to visible and NIR radiation: their structure remains poorly known and the mass-loss process poorly understood. Millimeter-wave interferometry, which combines the advantages of longer wavelength, high angular resolution and very high spectral resolution is the optimal investigative tool for this purpose. Mm waves pass through dust with almost no attenuation. Their spectrum is rich in molecular lines and hosts the fundamental lines of the ubiquitous CO molecule, allowing a tomographic reconstruction of the envelope structure. The circumstellar envelope IRC +10 216 and its central star, the C-rich TP-AGB star closest to the Sun, are the best objects for such an investigation. Two years ago, we reported the first detailed study of the CO(2-1) line emission in that envelope, made with the IRAM 30-m telescope. It revealed a series of dense gas shells, expanding at a uniform radial velocity. The limited resolution of the telescope (HPBW 11″) did not allow us to resolve the shell structure. We now report much higher angular resolution observations of CO(2-1), CO(1-0), CN(2-1) and C4H(24-23) made with the SMA, PdB and ALMA interferometers (with synthesized half-power beamwidths of 3″, 1″ and 0.3″, respectively). Although the envelope appears much more intricate at high resolution than with an 11″ beam, its prevailing structure remains a pattern of thin, nearly concentric shells. The average separation between the brightest CO shells is 16″ in the outer envelope, where it appears remarkably constant. Closer to the star (< 40″), the shell pattern is denser and less regular, showing intermediary arcs. Outside the small (r < 0.3″) dust formation zone, the gas appears to expand radially at a constant velocity, 14.5 km s−1, with small turbulent motions. Based on that property, we have reconstructed the 3-D structure of the outer envelope and have derived the gas temperature and density radial profiles in the inner (r < 25″) envelope. The shell-intershell density contrast is found to be typically 3. The over-dense shells have spherical or slightly oblate shapes and typically extend over a few steradians, implying isotropic mass loss. The regular spacing of shells in the outer envelope supports the model of a binary star system with a period of 700 years and a near face-on elliptical orbit. The companion fly-by triggers enhanced episodes of mass loss near periastron. The densification of the shell pattern observed in the central part of the envelope suggests a more complex scenario for the last few thousand years. ⋆ PMID:29456257
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Response of a rigid aircraft to nonstationary atmospheric turbulence.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Verdon, J. M.; Steiner, R.
1973-01-01
The plunging response of an aircraft to a type of nonstationary turbulent excitation is considered. The latter consists of stationary Gaussian noise modulated by a well-defined envelope function. The intent of the investigation is to model the excitation experienced by an airplane flying through turbulence of varying intensity and to examine the influence of intensity variations on exceedance frequencies of the gust velocity and the airplane's plunging velocity and acceleration. One analytical advantage of the proposed model is that the Gaussian assumption for the gust excitation is retained. The analysis described herein is developed in terms of an envelope function of arbitrary form; however, numerical calculations are limited to the case of harmonic modulation.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Yamana, Shukichi
1987-01-01
Illustrates the 18 steps to the development of a model of a coordination polyhedron that represents the cubic closest-packed structure. Uses a sealed, empty envelope in developing the model in teaching about stereochemistry. (TW)
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Processing of spectral and amplitude envelope of animal vocalizations in the human auditory cortex.
Altmann, Christian F; Gomes de Oliveira Júnior, Cícero; Heinemann, Linda; Kaiser, Jochen
2010-08-01
In daily life, we usually identify sounds effortlessly and efficiently. Two properties are particularly salient and of importance for sound identification: the sound's overall spectral envelope and its temporal amplitude envelope. In this study, we aimed at investigating the representation of these two features in the human auditory cortex by using a functional magnetic resonance imaging adaptation paradigm. We presented pairs of sound stimuli derived from animal vocalizations that preserved the time-averaged frequency spectrum of the animal vocalizations and the amplitude envelope. We presented the pairs in four different conditions: (a) pairs with the same amplitude envelope and mean spectral envelope, (b) same amplitude envelope, but different mean spectral envelope, (c) different amplitude envelope, but same mean spectral envelope and (d) both different amplitude envelope and mean spectral envelope. We found fMRI adaptation effects for both the mean spectral envelope and the amplitude envelope of animal vocalizations in overlapping cortical areas in the bilateral superior temporal gyrus posterior to Heschl's gyrus. Areas sensitive to the amplitude envelope extended further anteriorly along the lateral superior temporal gyrus in the left hemisphere, while areas sensitive to the spectral envelope extended further anteriorly along the right lateral superior temporal gyrus. Posterior tonotopic areas within the left superior temporal lobe displayed sensitivity for the mean spectrum. Our findings suggest involvement of primary auditory areas in the representation of spectral cues and encoding of general spectro-temporal features of natural sounds in non-primary posterior and lateral superior temporal cortex. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Zuber, Benoît; Chami, Mohamed; Houssin, Christine; Dubochet, Jacques; Griffiths, Gareth; Daffé, Mamadou
2008-01-01
The cell envelope of mycobacteria, which include the causative agents of tuberculosis and leprosy, is crucial for their success as pathogens. Despite a continued strong emphasis on identifying the multiple chemical components of this envelope, it has proven difficult to combine its components into a comprehensive structural model, primarily because the available ultrastructural data rely on conventional electron microscopy embedding and sectioning, which are known to induce artifacts. The existence of an outer membrane bilayer has long been postulated but has never been directly observed by electron microscopy of ultrathin sections. Here we have used cryo-electron microscopy of vitreous sections (CEMOVIS) to perform a detailed ultrastructural analysis of three species belonging to the Corynebacterineae suborder, namely, Mycobacterium bovis BCG, Mycobacterium smegmatis, and Corynebacterium glutamicum, in their native state. We provide new information that accurately describes the different layers of the mycobacterial cell envelope and challenges current models of the organization of its components. We show a direct visualization of an outer membrane, analogous to that found in gram-negative bacteria, in the three bacterial species examined. Furthermore, we demonstrate that mycolic acids, the hallmark of mycobacteria and related genera, are essential for the formation of this outer membrane. In addition, a granular layer and a low-density zone typifying the periplasmic space of gram-positive bacteria are apparent in CEMOVIS images of mycobacteria and corynebacteria. Based on our observations, a model of the organization of the lipids in the outer membrane is proposed. The architecture we describe should serve as a reference for future studies to relate the structure of the mycobacterial cell envelope to its function. PMID:18567661
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Direct visualization of the outer membrane of mycobacteria and corynebacteria in their native state.
Zuber, Benoît; Chami, Mohamed; Houssin, Christine; Dubochet, Jacques; Griffiths, Gareth; Daffé, Mamadou
2008-08-01
The cell envelope of mycobacteria, which include the causative agents of tuberculosis and leprosy, is crucial for their success as pathogens. Despite a continued strong emphasis on identifying the multiple chemical components of this envelope, it has proven difficult to combine its components into a comprehensive structural model, primarily because the available ultrastructural data rely on conventional electron microscopy embedding and sectioning, which are known to induce artifacts. The existence of an outer membrane bilayer has long been postulated but has never been directly observed by electron microscopy of ultrathin sections. Here we have used cryo-electron microscopy of vitreous sections (CEMOVIS) to perform a detailed ultrastructural analysis of three species belonging to the Corynebacterineae suborder, namely, Mycobacterium bovis BCG, Mycobacterium smegmatis, and Corynebacterium glutamicum, in their native state. We provide new information that accurately describes the different layers of the mycobacterial cell envelope and challenges current models of the organization of its components. We show a direct visualization of an outer membrane, analogous to that found in gram-negative bacteria, in the three bacterial species examined. Furthermore, we demonstrate that mycolic acids, the hallmark of mycobacteria and related genera, are essential for the formation of this outer membrane. In addition, a granular layer and a low-density zone typifying the periplasmic space of gram-positive bacteria are apparent in CEMOVIS images of mycobacteria and corynebacteria. Based on our observations, a model of the organization of the lipids in the outer membrane is proposed. The architecture we describe should serve as a reference for future studies to relate the structure of the mycobacterial cell envelope to its function.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dunn, Mariea C.; Alves, Jeffrey R.; Hutchinson, Sonya L.
1999-01-01
This paper describes the human engineering analysis performed on the Materials Science Research Rack-1 and Quench Module Insert (MSRR-1/QMI) using Transom Jack (Jack) software. The Jack software was used to model a virtual environment consisting of the MSRR-1/QMI hardware configuration and human figures representing the 95th percentile male and 5th percentile female. The purpose of the simulation was to assess the human interfaces in the design for their ability to meet the requirements of the Pressurized Payloads Interface Requirements Document - International Space Program, Revision C (SSP 57000). Jack was used in the evaluation because of its ability to correctly model anthropometric body measurements and the physical behavior of astronauts working in microgravity, which is referred to as the neutral body posture. The Jack model allows evaluation of crewmember interaction with hardware through task simulation including but not limited to collision avoidance behaviors, hand/eye coordination, reach path planning, and automatic grasping to part contours. Specifically, this virtual simulation depicts the human figures performing the QMI installation and check-out, sample cartridge insertion and removal, and gas bottle drawer removal. These tasks were evaluated in terms of adequate clearance in reach envelopes, adequate accessibility in work envelopes, appropriate line of sight in visual envelopes, and accommodation of full size range for male and female stature maneuverability. The results of the human engineering analysis virtual simulation indicate that most of the associated requirements of SSP 57000 were met. However, some hardware design considerations and crew procedures modifications are recommended to improve accessibility, provide an adequate work envelope, reduce awkward body posture, and eliminate permanent protrusions.
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EVOLUTIONARY MODELS OF SUPER-EARTHS AND MINI-NEPTUNES INCORPORATING COOLING AND MASS LOSS
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Howe, Alex R.; Burrows, Adam, E-mail: arhowe@astro.princeton.edu, E-mail: burrows@astro.princeton.edu
We construct models of the structural evolution of super-Earth- and mini-Neptune-type exoplanets with H{sub 2}–He envelopes, incorporating radiative cooling and XUV-driven mass loss. We conduct a parameter study of these models, focusing on initial mass, radius, and envelope mass fractions, as well as orbital distance, metallicity, and the specific prescription for mass loss. From these calculations, we investigate how the observed masses and radii of exoplanets today relate to the distribution of their initial conditions. Orbital distance and the initial envelope mass fraction are the most important factors determining planetary evolution, particularly radius evolution. Initial mass also becomes important belowmore » a “turnoff mass,” which varies with orbital distance, with mass–radius curves being approximately flat for higher masses. Initial radius is the least important parameter we study, with very little difference between the hot start and cold start limits after an age of 100 Myr. Model sets with no mass loss fail to produce results consistent with observations, but a plausible range of mass-loss scenarios is allowed. In addition, we present scenarios for the formation of the Kepler-11 planets. Our best fit to observations of Kepler-11b and Kepler-11c involves formation beyond the snow line, after which they moved inward, circularized, and underwent a reduced degree of mass loss.« less
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Borggren, Marie; Vinner, Lasse; Andresen, Betina Skovgaard; Grevstad, Berit; Repits, Johanna; Melchers, Mark; Elvang, Tara Laura; Sanders, Rogier W; Martinon, Frédéric; Dereuddre-Bosquet, Nathalie; Bowles, Emma Joanne; Stewart-Jones, Guillaume; Biswas, Priscilla; Scarlatti, Gabriella; Jansson, Marianne; Heyndrickx, Leo; Grand, Roger Le; Fomsgaard, Anders
2013-07-19
HIV-1 DNA vaccines have many advantageous features. Evaluation of HIV-1 vaccine candidates often starts in small animal models before macaque and human trials. Here, we selected and optimized DNA vaccine candidates through systematic testing in rabbits for the induction of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAb). We compared three different animal models: guinea pigs, rabbits and cynomolgus macaques. Envelope genes from the prototype isolate HIV-1 Bx08 and two elite neutralizers were included. Codon-optimized genes, encoded secreted gp140 or membrane bound gp150, were modified for expression of stabilized soluble trimer gene products, and delivered individually or mixed. Specific IgG after repeated i.d. inoculations with electroporation confirmed in vivo expression and immunogenicity. Evaluations of rabbits and guinea pigs displayed similar results. The superior DNA construct in rabbits was a trivalent mix of non-modified codon-optimized gp140 envelope genes. Despite NAb responses with some potency and breadth in guinea pigs and rabbits, the DNA vaccinated macaques displayed less bNAb activity. It was concluded that a trivalent mix of non-modified gp140 genes from rationally selected clinical isolates was, in this study, the best option to induce high and broad NAb in the rabbit model, but this optimization does not directly translate into similar responses in cynomolgus macaques.
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Borggren, Marie; Vinner, Lasse; Andresen, Betina Skovgaard; Grevstad, Berit; Repits, Johanna; Melchers, Mark; Elvang, Tara Laura; Sanders, Rogier W; Martinon, Frédéric; Dereuddre-Bosquet, Nathalie; Bowles, Emma Joanne; Stewart-Jones, Guillaume; Biswas, Priscilla; Scarlatti, Gabriella; Jansson, Marianne; Heyndrickx, Leo; Le Grand, Roger; Fomsgaard, Anders
2013-01-01
HIV-1 DNA vaccines have many advantageous features. Evaluation of HIV-1 vaccine candidates often starts in small animal models before macaque and human trials. Here, we selected and optimized DNA vaccine candidates through systematic testing in rabbits for the induction of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAb). We compared three different animal models: guinea pigs, rabbits and cynomolgus macaques. Envelope genes from the prototype isolate HIV-1 Bx08 and two elite neutralizers were included. Codon-optimized genes, encoded secreted gp140 or membrane bound gp150, were modified for expression of stabilized soluble trimer gene products, and delivered individually or mixed. Specific IgG after repeated i.d. inoculations with electroporation confirmed in vivo expression and immunogenicity. Evaluations of rabbits and guinea pigs displayed similar results. The superior DNA construct in rabbits was a trivalent mix of non-modified codon-optimized gp140 envelope genes. Despite NAb responses with some potency and breadth in guinea pigs and rabbits, the DNA vaccinated macaques displayed less bNAb activity. It was concluded that a trivalent mix of non-modified gp140 genes from rationally selected clinical isolates was, in this study, the best option to induce high and broad NAb in the rabbit model, but this optimization does not directly translate into similar responses in cynomolgus macaques. PMID:26344115
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Site-specific volumetric analysis of lung tumour motion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pepin, Eric W.; Wu, Huanmei; Sandison, George A.; Langer, Mark; Shirato, Hiroki
2010-06-01
The treatment of lung cancer with radiation therapy is hindered by respiratory motion. Real-time adjustments to compensate for this motion are hampered by mechanical system latencies and imaging-rate restrictions. To better understand tumour motion behaviour for adaptive image-guided radiation therapy of lung cancer, the volume of a tumour's motion space was investigated. Motion data were collected by tracking an implanted fiducial using fluoroscopy at 30 Hz during treatment sessions. A total of 637 treatment fractions from 31 tumours were used in this study. For each fraction, data points collected from three consecutive breathing cycles were used to identify instantaneous tumour location. A convex hull was created over these data points, defining the tumour motion envelope. The study sought a correlation between the tumour location in the lung and the convex hull's volume and shape. It was found that tumours located in the upper apex had smaller motion envelopes (<50 mm3), whereas tumours located near the chest wall or diaphragm had larger envelopes (>70 mm3). Tumours attached to fixed anatomical structures had small motion spaces. Three general shapes described the tumour motion envelopes: 50% of motion envelopes enclosed largely 1D oscillation, 38% enclosed an ellipsoid path, 6% enclosed an arced path and 6% were of hybrid shape. This location-space correlation suggests it may be useful in developing a predictive model, but more work needs to be done to verify it.