Tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in Primates.

PubMed

Duran, Andressa; Pie, Marcio R

2015-09-01

Climatic niches have increasingly become a nexus in our understanding of a variety of ecological and evolutionary phenomena, from species distributions to latitudinal diversity gradients. Despite the increasing availability of comprehensive datasets on species ranges, phylogenetic histories, and georeferenced environmental conditions, studies on the evolution of climate niches have only begun to understand how niches evolve over evolutionary timescales. Here, using primates as a model system, we integrate recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, species distribution patterns, and climatic data to explore primate climatic niche evolution, both among clades and over time. In general, we found that simple, constant-rate models provide a poor representation of how climatic niches evolve. For instance, there have been shifts in the rate of climatic niche evolution in several independent clades, particularly in response to the increasingly cooler climates of the past 10 My. Interestingly, rate accelerations greatly outnumbered rate decelerations. These results highlight the importance of considering more realistic evolutionary models that allow for the detection of heterogeneity in the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution, as well as to infer possible constraining factors for species distributions in geographical space. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.

2011-01-01

We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (~60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms.

Spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Yuanling; Shu, Qi; Zhao, Chang; Wang, Gang; Wu, Zhaohua; Qiao, Fangli

2018-01-15

Analyses of the chlorophyll a concentration (chla) from satellite ocean color products have suggested the decadal-scale variability of chla linked to the climate change. The decadal-scale variability in chla is both spatially and temporally non-uniform. We need to understand the spatiotemporal evolution of chla in decadal or multi-decadal timescales to better evaluate its linkage to climate variability. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution of the chla trend in the North Atlantic Ocean for the period 1997-2016 is analyzed using the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. We find that this variable trend signal of chla shows a dipole pattern between the subpolar gyre and along the Gulf Stream path, and propagation along the opposite direction of the North Atlantic Current. This propagation signal has an overlapping variability of approximately twenty years. Our findings suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of chla during the two most recent decades is part of the multidecadal variations and possibly regulated by the changes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, whereas the mechanisms of such evolution patterns still need to be explored. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Oral History of Evaluation: The Professional Development of Marvin C. Alkin

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Journal of Evaluation, 2010

2010-01-01

Over the past 7 years, the Oral History Project Team has conducted interviews with individuals who have made signal contributions to evaluation theory and practice, tracing their professional development and contextualizing their work within the social and political climates of the time. By capturing the professional evolution of those who have…

Evolution of the climatic tolerance and postglacial range changes of the most primitive orchids (Apostasioideae) within Sundaland, Wallacea and Sahul.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Kras, Marta; Dudek, Magdalena; Konowalik, Kamil

2016-01-01

The location of possible glacial refugia of six Apostasioideae representatives is estimated based on ecological niche modeling analysis. The distribution of their suitable niches during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is compared with their current potential and documented geographical ranges. The climatic factors limiting the studied species occurrences are evaluated and the niche overlap between the studied orchids is assessed and discussed. The predicted niche occupancy profiles and reconstruction of ancestral climatic tolerances suggest high level of phylogenetic niche conservatism within Apostasioideae.

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neel, Shad; Hood, Eran; Arendt, Anthony; Sass, Louis

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Speciation and stasis in marine Ostracoda: Climatic modulation of evolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.

1985-01-01

Morphologic and paleozoogeographic analysis of Cenozoic marine Ostracoda from the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Pacific indicates that climatic change modulates evolution by disrupting long-term stasis and catalyzing speciation during sustained, unidirectional climatic transitions and, conversely, by maintaining morphologic stasis during rapid, high-frequency climatic osculations. In the middle Pliocene, 4 to 3 million years ago, at least six new species of Puriana suddenly appeared as the Isthmus of Panama closed, changing oceanographic circulation and global climate. Since then morphologic stasis has characterized ancestral and descendant species during many glacial-interglacial cycles. The frequency and duration of climatic events have more impact on ostracode evolution than the magnitude of climatic changes.

Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses.

PubMed

Boutin, Stan; Lane, Jeffrey E

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made.

Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses

PubMed Central

Boutin, Stan; Lane, Jeffrey E

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made. PMID:24454546

Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the "bird-cage" evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Smith, Stephen A; Flynn, Rachel S; Donoghue, Michael J

2009-02-01

We integrate climatic niche models and dated phylogenies to characterize the evolution of climatic niches in Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae), and from that we make inferences on diversification in relation to climate. The evolution of climatic tolerances in Anogra + Kleinia has been heterogeneous, across phylogenetic groups and across different dimensions of climate. All the extant taxa occur in semiarid to arid conditions (annual precipitation of 10.1-49.1 cm and high temperatures in the warmest month of 28.5 degrees-40.1 degrees C), but there is striking variation among taxa in their climatic tolerances, especially temperature (minimum temperatures in the coldest month of -14.0 degrees to 5.3 degrees C) and summer versus winter precipitation (precipitation in the warmest quarter of 0.6-19.4 cm). Climatic disparity is especially pronounced in two subclades (californica, deltoides) that radiated in the southwestern United States and California, apparently including both divergent and convergent evolution of climatic tolerances. This niche evolution is remarkable, given the probable timescale of the radiation (approximately 1 million years). We suggest that the spatiotemporal climatic heterogeneity of western North America has served as a driver of diversification. Our data are also consistent with Axelrod's hypothesis that the spread of arid conditions in western North America stimulated diversification of arid-adapted lineages.

Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.

PubMed

Cooney, Christopher R; Seddon, Nathalie; Tobias, Joseph A

2016-07-01

The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Evolution of the climatic tolerance and postglacial range changes of the most primitive orchids (Apostasioideae) within Sundaland, Wallacea and Sahul

PubMed Central

Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Kras, Marta; Dudek, Magdalena

2016-01-01

The location of possible glacial refugia of six Apostasioideae representatives is estimated based on ecological niche modeling analysis. The distribution of their suitable niches during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is compared with their current potential and documented geographical ranges. The climatic factors limiting the studied species occurrences are evaluated and the niche overlap between the studied orchids is assessed and discussed. The predicted niche occupancy profiles and reconstruction of ancestral climatic tolerances suggest high level of phylogenetic niche conservatism within Apostasioideae. PMID:27635348

Niche evolution and diversification in a Neotropical radiation of birds (Aves: Furnariidae).

PubMed

Seeholzer, Glenn F; Claramunt, Santiago; Brumfield, Robb T

2017-03-01

Rapid diversification may be caused by ecological adaptive radiation via niche divergence. In this model, speciation is coupled with niche divergence and lineage diversification is predicted to be correlated with rates of niche evolution. Studies of the role of niche evolution in diversification have generally focused on ecomorphological diversification but climatic-niche evolution may also be important. We tested these alternatives using a phylogeny of 298 species of ovenbirds (Aves: Furnariidae). We found that within Furnariidae, variation in species richness and diversification rates of subclades were best predicted by rate of climatic-niche evolution than ecomorphological evolution. Although both are clearly important, univariate regression and multivariate model averaging more consistently supported the climatic-niche as the best predictor of lineage diversification. Our study adds to the growing body of evidence, suggesting that climatic-niche divergence may be an important driver of rapid diversification in addition to ecomorphological evolution. However, this pattern may depend on the phylogenetic scale at which rate heterogeneity is examined. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Smaller beaks for colder winters: Thermoregulation drives beak size evolution in Australasian songbirds.

PubMed

Friedman, Nicholas R; Harmáčková, Lenka; Economo, Evan P; Remeš, Vladimír

2017-08-01

Birds' beaks play a key role in foraging, and most research on their size and shape has focused on this function. Recent findings suggest that beaks may also be important for thermoregulation, and this may drive morphological evolution as predicted by Allen's rule. However, the role of thermoregulation in the evolution of beak size across species remains largely unexplored. In particular, it remains unclear whether the need for retaining heat in the winter or dissipating heat in the summer plays the greater role in selection for beak size. Comparative studies are needed to evaluate the relative importance of these functions in beak size evolution. We addressed this question in a clade of birds exhibiting wide variation in their climatic niche: the Australasian honeyeaters and allies (Meliphagoidea). Across 158 species, we compared species' climatic conditions extracted from their ranges to beak size measurements in a combined spatial-phylogenetic framework. We found that winter minimum temperature was positively correlated with beak size, while summer maximum temperature was not. This suggests that while diet and foraging behavior may drive evolutionary changes in beak shape, changes in beak size can also be explained by the beak's role in thermoregulation, and winter heat retention in particular. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Science synergism study for EOS on evolution of desert surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farr, Tom G.

1987-01-01

The effectiveness of EOS data as a basis for the study of desert surfaces' evolution is presently evaluated for both long and short term geomorphic evolution. Attention is given to the usefulness of such sensor systems planned for EOS as MODIS for regional vegetation distribution/variability monitoring, HIRIS for visible-near IR observations, TIMS for lithological identification, HMMR and SSMI for soil characteristics, LASA for atmospheric profiles, SAR for surface roughness, ALT for two-dimensional topography, ACR for the calibration of imaging sensors, and ERBE for climate modeling and regional surface albedo variation determinations.

Late Quaternary landscape evolution, climate, and neotectonism along the eastern margin of the Puna Plateau: Pucará Valley, NW Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, J. A.; Schoenbohm, L. M.; Bierman, P. R.; Rood, D. H.

2013-12-01

The eastern margin of the Puna Plateau has been the focus of many studies seeking to link climatically-moderated surface processes and tectonism through dynamic feedbacks. However, evaluating any theories regarding climatic-tectonic feedbacks requires the determination of tectonic, climatic, and geomorphic chronologies across a wide region, from plateau to wedge-top to foreland. In this study, we contribute to that effort by examining Quaternary landscape evolution of a single intermontane basin of spatially uniform climate, adjacent to the plateau margin. The semi-arid Pucará Valley contains eight abandoned and incised geomorphic surfaces, most of which are deformed by active structures. These geomorphic surfaces - thin alluvial fans and strath terraces - dominate the landscape and record multiple pulses of incision in the late Quaternary. We find no evidence for significant depositional intervals and valley incision continues currently. Substantial accumulations of pedogenic carbonate and pedogenic gypsum within abandoned surfaces indicate that arid or semi-arid conditions are long lived in this valley. Conversely, relict periglacial morphology in adjacent ranges supports cooler temperatures in the past. River incision is enhanced across active structures, but preliminary observations suggest that the magnitude of deformation cannot fully explain the magnitude of incision. As a result, we argue that extrabasinal base-level lowering is the primary driver of incision in the Pucará Valley, but Quaternary deformation is significant enough to spatially influence erosion. Cooler climatic intervals may influence the sedimentology of alluvial and fluvial deposits, but we find no evidence for significant climatic changes that could change rates or styles of landscape evolution over this time frame. Pending cosmogenic nuclide analysis of fan deposits and river sediments will permit the derivation of fault slip rates, surface ages, modern and paleo-erosion rates, and sediment transport histories. These results will further refine our understanding of tectonic and climatic forcing of surface processes in the Quaternary.

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.

Scientific Results of the Nasa-sponsored Study Project on Mars: Evolution of Its Climate and Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, Stephen M.; Greeley, Ronald; Haberle, Robert M.

1988-01-01

The scientific highlights of the Mars: Evolution of its Climate and Atmosphere (MECA) study project are reviewed and some of the important issues in Martian climate research that remain unresolved are discussed.

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

WHEN A PHYLOGENETIC TRICHOTOMY MAKES SENSES: PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF BUFO PUNCTATUS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE WARM DESERTS

EPA Science Inventory

Bufo punctatus, the red-spotted toad, is a common, desert-adapted anuran with a widespread distribution throughout warm, and regions of North America. This distribution makes this species ideal for evaluating alternative scenarios of biotic response to geotectonically and climat...

Deglacial Evolution of Atlantic Mid-Depth and Intermediate-Depth Water Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppo, D.; Gebbie, G.; Huang, K. F.; Guo, W.; Schmittner, A.; Liu, Z.; Curry, W. B.

2014-12-01

Deglacial variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) feature prominently in hypotheses of deglacial climate variability and atmospheric CO2rise. However, there is lingering uncertainty in the glacial deepwater mass configuration (e.g. Gebbie, 2014) and deglacial AMOC variability is even more poorly understood. For example, the deglacial evolution of the contribution of northern and southern source waters to the middle and intermediate depths of the Atlantic is still vigorously debated. Here, we evaluate the evolution of subsurface Atlantic ventilation, emphasizing middle and intermediate depths, by comparing new and published records of water mass variability to output from transient model simulations designed to provide insight into the climatic and oceanographic effects of a dramatic reduction in the AMOC, such as apparently occurred during Heinrich Stadial 1 (Liu et al., 2009; Schmittner and Lund, 2014). Gebbie, G. (2014), How much did Glacial North Atlantic Water shoal? Paleoceanography, 29, 190-209, doi: 10.1002/2013PA002557. Liu, Z., B. Otto-Bliesner, F. He, E. Brady, R. Thomas, P. U. Clark, A. E. Carlson, J. Lynch-Stieglitz, W. Curry, E. Brook, D. Erickson, R. Jacob, J. Kutzbach, J., and J. Chen (2009), Transient climate simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bølling-Allerød warming, Science, 325, 310-314. Schmittner, A., and Lund, D. C. (submitted), Carbon Isotopes Support Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline as a Trigger for Early Deglacial CO2 rise Climate of the Past Discussions.

Climate Change and the Arboviruses: Lessons from the Evolution of the Dengue and Yellow Fever Viruses.

PubMed

Tabachnick, Walter J

2016-09-29

The impact of anticipated changes in global climate on the arboviruses and the diseases they cause poses a significant challenge for public health. The past evolution of the dengue and yellow fever viruses provides clues about the influence of changes in climate on their future evolution. The evolution of both viruses has been influenced by virus interactions involving the mosquito species and the primate hosts involved in virus transmission, and by their domestic and sylvatic cycles. Information is needed on how viral genes in general influence phenotypic variance for important viral functions. Changes in global climate will alter the interactions of mosquito species with their primate hosts and with the viruses in domestic cycles, and greater attention should be paid to the sylvatic cycles. There is great danger for the evolution of novel viruses, such as new serotypes, that could compromise vaccination programs and jeopardize public health. It is essential to understand (a) both sylvatic and domestic cycles and (b) the role of virus genetic and environmental variances in shaping virus phenotypic variance to more fully assess the impact of global climate change.

Simulating vegetation dynamics in Chile from 21ka BP to present: Effects of climate change on vegetation functions and cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).

Evolution of plant–pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Gilman, R Tucker; Fabina, Nicholas S; Abbott, Karen C; Rafferty, Nicole E

2012-01-01

Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change. PMID:25568025

Climatic influences on species: Evidence from the fossil record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Schneider, C.E.

1990-01-01

The detailed Neogene and Quaternary paleoclimatic reconstructions now available provide a means to test how species respond to environmental change. Paleontologic studies of marine organisms show that climatic change causes evolution (via cladogenesis and anagenesis), ecophenotypic variation, migration, morphologic stasis and extinction. Evolution during climatic change is a rare event relative to the number of climatic cycles that have occurred, but climate-related environmental barriers, usually temperature, may play an important role in the isolation of populations during allopatric speciation.

Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

The Connection between Model Performance on the CCMVal Transport Diagnostics and Simulated Sensitivity of Ozone to Chlorine Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne; Stolarski, Richard; Oman, Luke; Strahan, Susan

2012-01-01

The chemistry climate models that contributed simulations for past and future ozone evolution to the 2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion were subject to extensive evaluation by the SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) activity. The sensitivity of ozone to changes in composition and climate varies among the models, but the relationship between these variations and the model evaluations of CCMVal is not obvious. We have learned that the transport evaluation can be used to interpret the comparisons between observed and simulated columns of chlorine reservoirs, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2); these comparisons were part of the CCMVal evaluation of chemistry. The simulations with best performance on the transport diagnostics most faithfully reproduce the evolution and seasonal variation of the chlorine reservoirs as observed at NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) stations (NyAlesund 78.9N, Kiruna 67.8N, Harestua 60.2N, Jungfraujoch 46.6N, Toronto 43.6N, Kitt Peak 31.9N, Izana 28.3N, Mauna Loa 19.5N, Lauder 45S and Arrival Heights 77.8S). In the simulations, the HCl in the lower stratosphere depends on total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and partitioning between HCl and ClON02. Total inorganic chlorine depends on the fractional release of chlorine from source gases, and ratio of ClON02 to HCl is inversely dependent on methane and varies quadratically with ozone. Simulated HCl from various models may agree with observations even though Cly is in error, partitioning is in error, or both. Simulated ozone sensitivity to chlorine is shown to be greater for models that produce larger values of chlorine nitrate for background chlorine levels, and vice versa. Comparisons with the NDACC data show why the models with 'best' transport have similar sensitivity to chlorine change. The realistic evolution of the simulated HCl and ClONO2 columns suggests realistic levels of Cly in the lower atmosphere. In addition, the wide range values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine obtained from the CCMVal simulations is explained by the wide range in lower atmospheric columns of ClONO2 and the concomitant wide range of levels for chlorine monoxide.

Heat waves in Africa and India: a multidisciplinary approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janicot, Serge; Moron, Vincent; Oueslati, Boutheina; Pohl, Benjamin; Rome, Sandra; Lalou, Richard; Dos Santos, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

While the heat wave impacts on public health have been widely addressed in developed countries, less effort has been made to detect them and evaluate their impacts in least developed countries, especially in Africa and to a lesser extent in India, where climate is warmer and adaptation capacities are low. Climate and epidemiologic analyses show however that this problem is already present and climate projections indicate that such events should increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades. However climate models display important temperature and radiative biases over this region, which must be reduced to provide robust information on the future evolution of heat waves. Moreover early warning systems have to face up to institutional malfunctions. This talk lays the elements for a multidisciplinary approach of tackling heat wave occurrences.

PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF BUFO PUNCTATUS: LONG TERM EVOLUTION WITHIN THE WARM DESERTS OF NORTH AMERICA AND LATE QUATERNARY RANGE SHIFTING

EPA Science Inventory

Bufo punctatus, the red-spotted toad, is a widespread anuran of the warm-desert regions of western North America. This distribution makes this species ideal for evaluating biotic response to geotectonically and climatically mediated episodes of landscape transformation (e.g., ear...

Genetics of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2012-01-01

The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Ren, Guangpeng; Conti, Elena; Salamin, Nicolas

2015-08-16

The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Long-run evolution of the global economy: 2. Hindcasts of innovation and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, T. J.

2015-03-01

Long-range climate forecasts rely upon integrated assessment models that link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework, outlined in Part 1, that is based on physical principles rather than explicitly resolved societal dynamics. Relative to a reference model of persistence in trends, model hindcasts that are initialized with data from 1950 to 1960 reproduce trends in global economic production and energy consumption between 2000 and 2010 with a skill score greater than 90%. In part, such high skill appears to be because civilization has responded to an impulse of fossil fuel discovery in the mid-twentieth century. Forecasting the coming century will be more of a challenge because the effect of the impulse appears to have nearly run its course. Nonetheless, the model offers physically constrained futures for the coupled evolution of civilization and climate during the Anthropocene.

Presentation of the FMI 5000 Project: Environmental changes: Fluvio-marine interactions over the last 5000yrs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-Pereira, Ana; Ramos, Catarina; Trindade, Jorge; Araújo-Gomes, João.; Rocha, Jorge; Granja, Helena; Gonçalves, Luís.; Monge-Soares, António; Martins, José

2010-05-01

Keywords: Estuaries, Environmental Changes, Holocene, GIS Modelling, Portugal FMI 5000 Project (between 2010 and 2012) aims to evaluate, in different estuarine environmental conditions, the balance between fluvial and marine influences, the responses to climatic events and the impact of land use changes. The temporal window chosen, contains different trends of the sea level, climatic fluctuations like the Bond events or humid episodes recorded in the Iberian Peninsula, as well as the increase of the human intervention in the landscape, particularly sensitive since the Bronze Age (circa 3500yr), imprinted in the filling-up of the alluvial plain estuaries. The Portuguese mainland mesotidal coast spreads out in two different environmental conditions: (i) the West coast exposed to the NW dominant waves, with a temperate oceanic climate and fluvial regimes and (ii) the Southern sheltered one, but open to the SW storms, with a Mediterranean climate and with occasional heavy fluvial discharges. This contrast along the coast creates a good field of research to achieve the aims of the project. To prosecute this goal, estuaries of medium drainage basins were selected as they have homogeneous climate, geologic and geomorphologic conditions, allowing to define accurately the hydroclimatic events that contribute to the infilling of the estuarine plains. The small changes are recorded not only in the textural properties of the sediments, already recognized in the sediments of the Tagus and Guadiana rivers and in the small estuaries of the Spanish southern coast but also in the micro fauna, pollens and non-pollen-palinomorphs allowing to define the environmental changes, both marine and fluvial. To achieve the Project goals we select three estuaries in different climatic and wave climate conditions, to develop four different kinds of research and methodologies: (i) To identify millenary evolution, several hand-operated gauge auger cores or vibracores will be carried out in the infilling sediments of the estuaries alluvial plains. The cored sediments will be treated to define the textural sedimentary changes, to identify the pollen and non-pollen-palinomorphs and the foraminifera content. The changes in the sedimentary record are fundamental in the flood episodes evaluation and the sequence of wet and dry period's establishment over the Middle and Upper Holocene. The identification of the pollen and non-pollen-palinomorphs will add information on the natural and human induced climatic and environmental conditions. The presence and the type of foraminifera content will set aside the marine incursion episodes and the environmental changes. Stable isotope ratios (δ13C) in muddy deposits will be used to identify sources of fine-sized organic matter (marine or terrestrial). (ii) To identify the secular evolution, the research of regional historical documents will focus not only on rainy/flooded episodes and droughts but also on the land use changes (e.g. deforestation, drying of marshes). (iii) To assess dating of the detected environmental change events, the sedimentation rates and the landscape evolution over the last 5000 yr, radiocarbon dating will be carried out. For the last century another approach will be used, based on radiometric data tools adequate to this temporal scale (210Pb) and compared with climatic and hydrological Portuguese network observational records. (iv) The correlation of the results provided by the three previous set of tasks would be performed and compared with Paleoclimatic Data Sets (e.g. NOAA) in order to evaluate how the global and regional climatic changes are reflected along the Western coast of the Iberian Peninsula during the last 5000yr. All data will be integrated in a GIS, allowing the reconstruction and modelling of paleolandscape, its evolution during the Middle and Upper Holocene and future tendencies in the global change scenario. Project financed by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e Tcnologia, n°: PTDC/CTE-GIX/104035/2008

Evolutionary divergence of mitochondrial genomes in two Tetranychus species distributed across different climates.

PubMed

Sun, J-T; Jin, P-Y; Hoffmann, A A; Duan, X-Z; Dai, J; Hu, G; Xue, X-F; Hong, X-Y

2018-05-24

There is increasing evidence that mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) can be under selection, whereas the selective regimes shaping mitogenome evolution remain largely unclear. To test for mitochondrial genome evolution in relation to the climate adaptation, we explored mtDNA variation in two spider mite (Tetranychus) species, which distribute across different climates. We sequenced 26 complete mitogenomes of T. truncatus which occurs in both warm and cold regions, and 9 complete mitogenomes of T. pueraricola which is only restricted in warm regions. Patterns of evolution in the two species mitogenomes were compared through a series of d N /d S methods and physicochemical profiles of amino acid replacements. We found that (1) the mitogenomes of both species were under widespread purifying selection. (2) Elevated directional adaptive selection was observed in the T. truncatus mitogenome, perhaps linked to the cold climates adaptation of T. truncatus. (3) The strength of selection varied across genes, and diversifying positive selection detected on ND4 and ATP6 pointed to their crucial roles during adaptation to different climatic conditions. This study gained insight into the mitogenome evolution in relation to the climate adaptation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Royal Entomological Society.

The Sensitivity of Earth's Climate History To Changes In The Rates of Biological And Geological Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, D.

2014-12-01

The faint young Sun paradox (early Earth had surface liquid water despite solar luminosity 70% of the modern value) implies that our planet's albedo has increased through time and/or greenhouse warming has fallen. The obvious explanation is that negative feedback processes stabilized temperatures. However, the limited temperature data available does not exhibit the expected residual temperature rise and, at least for the Phanerozoic, estimates of climate sensitivity exceed the Planck sensitivity (the zero net-feedback value). The alternate explanation is that biological and geological evolution have tended to cool Earth through time hence countering solar-driven warming. The coincidence that Earth-evolution has roughly cancelled Solar-evolution can then be explained as an emergent property of a complex system (the Gaia hypothesis) or the result of the unavoidable observational bias that Earth's climate history must be compatible with our existence (the anthropic principle). Here, I use a simple climate model to investigate the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in the rate of Earth-evolution. Earth-evolution is represented by an effective emissivity which has an intrinsic variation through time (due to continental growth, the evolution of cyanobacteria, orbital fluctuations etc) plus a linear feedback term which enhances emissivity variations. An important feature of this model is a predicted maximum in the radiated-flux versus temperature function. If the increasing solar flux through time had exceeded this value then runaway warming would have occurred. For the best-guess temperature history and climate sensitivity, the Earth has always been within a few percent of this maximum. There is no obvious Gaian explanation for this flux-coincidence but the anthropic principle naturally explains it: If the rate of biological/geological evolution is naturally slow then Earth is a fortunate outlier which evolved just fast enough to avoid solar-induced over-heating. However, there are large uncertainties concerning the temperature history of our planet and concerning climate sensitivity in the Archean and Proterozoic. When these are included, the solar-flux through time might have been as little as 70-90 % of the maximum thus reducing the significance of the flux-coincidence.

Climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini).

PubMed

Duran, Andressa; Meyer, Andreas L S; Pie, Marcio R

2013-01-01

Despite considerable interest in recent years on species distribution modeling and phylogenetic niche conservatism, little is known about the way in which climatic niches change over evolutionary time. This knowledge is of major importance to understand the mechanisms underlying limits of species distributions, as well as to infer how different lineages might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. In this study we investigate the tempo and mode climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini). Climatic conditions found throughout the distribution of 140 primate species were investigated using a principal component analysis, which indicated that mean temperature (particularly during the winter) is the most important climatic correlate of platyrrhine geographical distributions, accounting for nearly half of the interspecific variation in climatic niches. The effects of precipitation were associated with the second principal component, particularly with respect to the dry season. When models of trait evolution were fit to scores on each of the principal component axes, significant phylogenetic signal was detected for PC1 scores, but not for PC2 scores. Interestingly, although all platyrrhine families occupied comparable regions of climatic space, some aotid species such as Aotus lemurinus, A. jorgehernandezi, and A. miconax show highly distinctive climatic niches associated with drier conditions (high PC2 scores). This shift might have been made possible by their nocturnal habits, which could serve as an exaptation that allow them to be less constrained by humidity during the night. These results underscore the usefulness of investigating explicitly the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution and its role in determining species distributions.

Interglacial climates and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: is there an Arctic controversy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauch, Henning A.

2013-03-01

Arctic palaeorecords are important to understand the "natural range" of forcing and feedback mechanisms within the context of past and present climate change in this temperature-sensitive region. A wide array of methods and archives now provide a robust understanding of the Holocene climate evolution. By comparison rather little is still known about older interglacials, and in particular, on the effects of the northward propagation of heat transfer via the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (AMOC) into the Arctic. Terrestrial records from this area often indicate a warmer and moister climate during past interglacials than in the Holocene implying a more vigorous AMOC activity. This is in conflict with marine data. Although recognized as very prominent interglacials in Antarctic ice cores, cross-latitudinal surface ocean temperature reconstructions show that little of the surface ocean warmth still identified in the Northeast Atlantic during older interglacial peaks (e.g., MIS5e, 9, 11) was further conveyed into the polar latitudes, and that each interglacial developed its own specific palaeoclimate features. Interactive processes between water mass overturning and the hydrological system of the Arctic, and how both developed together out of a glacial period with its particular ice sheet configuration and relative sea-level history, determined the efficiency of an evolving interglacial AMOC. Because of that glacial terminations developed some very specific water mass characteristics, which also affected the climate evolution of the ensuing interglacial periods. Moreover, the observed contrasts in the Arctic-directed meridional ocean heat flux between past interglacials have implications for the palaeoclimatic evaluation of this polar region. Crucial environmental factors of the Arctic climate system, such as the highly dynamical interactions between deep water mass flow, surface ocean temperature/salinity, sea ice, and atmosphere, exert strong feedbacks on interglacial climate regionality that goes well beyond the Arctic. A sound interpretation of such processes from palaeoarchives requires a good understanding of the applied proxies. Fossils, in particular, are often key to the reconstruction of past conditions. But the tremendously flexible adaptation strategies of biota sometimes hampers further in-depth interpretations, especially when considering their palaeoenvironmental meaning in the context of rapid palaeoclimatic changes and long-term Pleistocene evolution.

Rates of climatic niche evolution are correlated with species richness in a large and ecologically diverse radiation of songbirds.

PubMed

Title, Pascal O; Burns, Kevin J

2015-05-01

By employing a recently inferred phylogeny and museum occurrence records, we examine the relationship of ecological niche evolution to diversification in the largest family of songbirds, the tanagers (Thraupidae). We test whether differences in species numbers in the major clades of tanagers can be explained by differences in rate of climatic niche evolution. We develop a methodological pipeline to process and filter occurrence records. We find that, of the ecological variables examined, clade richness is higher in clades with higher climatic niche rate, and that this rate is also greater for clades that occupy a greater extent of climatic space. Additionally, we find that more speciose clades contain species with narrower niche breadths, suggesting that clades in which species are more successful at diversifying across climatic gradients have greater potential for speciation or are more buffered from the risk of extinction. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

PubMed

Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

2005-03-22

Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents

PubMed Central

Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

2005-01-01

Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change. PMID:15817435

On evolutionary climate tracks in deep mantle volatile cycle computed from numerical mantle convection simulations and its impact on the habitability of the Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, T.; Tajika, E.; Kadoya, S.

2017-12-01

Discussing an impact of evolution and dynamics in the Earth's deep interior on the surface climate change for the last few decades (see review by Ehlmann et al., 2016), the mantle volatile (particularly carbon) degassing in the mid-oceanic ridges seems to play a key role in understanding the evolutionary climate track for Earth-like planets (e.g. Kadoya and Tajika, 2015). However, since the mantle degassing occurs not only in the mid-oceanic ridges but also in the wedge mantle (island arc volcanism) and hotspots, to incorporate more accurate estimate of mantle degassing flux into the climate evolution framework, we developed a coupled model of surface climate-deep Earth evolution in numerical mantle convection simulations, including more accurate deep water and carbon cycle (e.g. Nakagawa and Spiegelman, 2017) with an energy balance theory of climate change. Modeling results suggest that the evolution of planetary climate computed from a developed model is basically consistent with an evolutionary climate track in simplified mantle degassing model (Kadoya and Tajika, 2015), but an occurrence timing of global (snowball) glaciation is strongly dependent on mantle degassing rate occurred with activities of surface plate motions. With this implication, the surface plate motion driven by deep mantle dynamics would play an important role in the planetary habitability of such as the Earth and Earth-like planets over geologic time-scale.

Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2014-05-01

Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology 32:74-85 DOI: 10.1002/joc.2256. van der Linden, P., and J. F. B. Mitchell (Eds.) (2009), ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and Its Impacts: Summary of Research and Results From the ENSEMBLES Project, Met Off. Hadley Cent, Exeter, U. K.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E., E-mail: kadoya@astrobio.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: tajika@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp

The climatic evolution of the Earth depends strongly on the evolution of the insolation from the Sun and the amount of the greenhouse gasses, especially CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the evolution of the climate of hypothetical Earths around stars whose masses are different from the solar mass with a luminosity evolution model of the stars, a mantle degassing model coupled with a parameterized convection model of the planetary interiors, and an energy balance climate model of the planetary surface. In the habitable zone (HZ), the climate of the planets is initially warm or hot, depending onmore » the orbital semimajor axes. We found that, in the inner HZ, the climate of the planets becomes hotter with time owing to the increase in the luminosity of the central stars, while, in the outer HZ, it becomes colder and eventually globally ice-covered owing to the decrease in the CO{sub 2} degassing rate of the planets. The orbital condition for maintaining the warm climate similar to the present Earth becomes very limited, and more interestingly, the planet orbiting in the outer HZ becomes globally ice-covered after a certain critical age (∼3 Gyr for the hypothetical Earth with standard parameters), irrespective of the mass of the central star. This is because the critical age depends on the evolution of the planets and planetary factors, rather than on the stellar mass. The habitability of the Earth-like planet is shown to be limited with age even though it is orbiting within the HZ.« less

Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

2009-04-01

We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.

Deglacial History of the Ecuadorian Andes and Implication for Climate Variations: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, M.; Rinterknecht, V. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Seager, R.; Greene, A.

2004-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are essential for evaluating the future evolution of natural climate variability and for determining climate sensitivity to external forcing. Reconstructing climate conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene represents a unique opportunity to understand climate variability from full glacial conditions to modern warm conditions. The primary goal of our project, is to verify if the changes in temperature and precipitation driving the glacier event in the tropics during the well-documented Little Ice Age (LIA), may also account for the glaciations related to the LGM and the late glacial period. This inter-disciplinary project brings together specialists in glacial geology, surface exposure dating, and climate modeling. Our first trip to Ecuador took us to the Papallacta Valley at the rim of the Potrerillos Plateau. We developed detailed maps of the snowline lowering in the valley and took samples in well-exposed sections for radiocarbon dating. We used our maps and the age constraints on the deglacial history of the Papallacta Valley to estimate the possible combinations of changes in climate parameters related to reconstructed snowline variations. This local study represents the first step in a broader project that will cover most of the Ecuadorian Andes. We will also provide direct dating (3He, 10Be, and 36Cl) of the moraine sequences deposited during the retreat of the glaciers during the late Pleistocene. By the time of the project completion we want to evaluate the nature of the driving forces underlying the LGM and the late glacial event in view of the relatively well understood mechanisms behind the termination of the LIA, and we want to compare the produced data to mid- and high- latitude areas in order to evaluate the regional footprint of dimension and timing of glacier response to climate change.

Emergence, reductionism and landscape response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Mighall, Tim

2010-05-01

Predicting landscape response to external forcing is hampered by the non-linear, stochastic and contingent (ie dominated by historical accidents) forcings inherent in landscape evolution. Using examples from research carried out in southwest Ireland we suggest that non-linearity in landform evolution is likely to be a strong control making regional predictions of landscape response to climate change very difficult. While uncertainties in GCM projections have been widely explored in climate science much less attention has been directed by geomorphologists to the uncertainties in landform evolution under conditions of climate change and this problem may be viewed within the context of philosophical approaches to reductionsim and emergence. Understanding the present and future trajectory of landform change may also guide us to provide an enhanced appreciation of how landforms evolved in the past.

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Shaw, Ruth G; Etterson, Julie R

2012-09-01

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

The commercial evolution of the Titan program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isakowitz, Steven

1988-07-01

The present status evaluation of proprietary efforts to turn the once exclusively government-requirements-oriented Titan launch vehicle into a successful commercial competitor is divided into three phases. The first phase notes recent changes in U.S. space transportation policy and the Titan configurations evaluated for commercial feasibility. The second phase is a development history for the current vehicle's marketing organization and the right-to-use agreement for a launch site. Phase three projects the prospective marketing climate for a commercial Titan vehicle and its planned improvements.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried

2016-06-01

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolution of high-Arctic glacial landforms during deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midgley, N. G.; Tonkin, T. N.; Graham, D. J.; Cook, S. J.

2018-06-01

Glacial landsystems in the high-Arctic have been reported to undergo geomorphological transformation during deglaciation. This research evaluates moraine evolution over a decadal timescale at Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. This work is of interest because glacial landforms developed in Svalbard have been used as an analogue for landforms developed during Pleistocene mid-latitude glaciation. Ground penetrating radar was used to investigate the subsurface characteristics of moraines. To determine surface change, a LiDAR topographic data set (obtained 2003) and a UAV-derived (obtained 2014) digital surface model processed using structure-from-motion (SfM) are also compared. Evaluation of these data sets together enables subsurface character and landform response to climatic amelioration to be linked. Ground penetrating radar evidence shows that the moraine substrate at Midtre Lovénbreen includes ice-rich (radar velocities of 0.17 m ns-1) and debris-rich (radar velocities of 0.1-0.13 m ns-1) zones. The ice-rich zones are demonstrated to exhibit relatively high rates of surface change (mean thresholded rate of -4.39 m over the 11-year observation period). However, the debris-rich zones show a relatively low rate of surface change (mean thresholded rate of -0.98 m over the 11-year observation period), and the morphology of the debris-rich landforms appear stable over the observation period. A complex response of proglacial landforms to climatic warming is shown to occur within and between glacier forelands as indicated by spatially variable surface lowering rates. Landform response is controlled by the ice-debris balance of the moraine substrate, along with the topographic context (such as the influence of meltwater). Site-specific characteristics such as surface debris thickness and glaciofluvial drainage are, therefore, argued to be a highly important control on surface evolution in ice-cored terrain, resulting in a diverse response of high-Arctic glacial landsystems to climatic amelioration. These results highlight that care is needed when assessing the long-term preservation potential of contemporary landforms at high-Arctic glaciers. A better understanding of ice-cored terrain facilitates the development of appropriate age and climatic interpretations that can be obtained from palaeo ice-marginal landsystems.

Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records.

PubMed

Foreman, Brady Z; Straub, Kyle M

2017-09-01

Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 10 4 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation.

The Earth System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark; Rood, Richard B.; Hildebrand, Peter; Raymond, Carol

2003-01-01

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records

PubMed Central

Foreman, Brady Z.; Straub, Kyle M.

2017-01-01

Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 104 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation. PMID:28924607

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

PubMed Central

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

2014-01-01

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

PubMed

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Time Scavengers: a Website for the Public to Learn about Climate Change and Evolution Through the Experiences of Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraass, A. J.; Lam, A. R.; Bauer, J.; Bryant, R.; Golder, K.; Hartshorn, K. R.; Hils, J. M.; Limbeck, M.; Sheffield, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate change and evolution are subjects that are consistently in the public sphere, though as public acceptance and desire to act on these subjects has increased, misinformation has as well. Thus, it is critical that scientists engage the public in discussions on these subjects. Several sites and blogs have attempted to explain these concepts; however, they often focus on one aspect of climate change or evolution, and blogs tend to follow the experiences of one scientist in a specific field. Due to these limitations, we have created a new website, TimeScavengers.blog. The site, maintained by postdocs, graduate students, and avocational scientists, is unique in that it includes static pages that thoroughly explain climate and evolution related topics and includes 5 blog pages that highlight the experiences of the site collaborators. Blog pages include: `Meet the Scientist', dedicated to introducing the public to scientists in many disciplines; `Science Bytes', focusing on research conducted by the site collaborators; `Education & Outreach', highlighting interactions between site collaborators and the public; and `Climate & Paleo News', explaining the relevance of important papers in climate research, paleoceanography, and paleontology and how they increase our understanding of climate change and evolution. The site also includes a `Teaching Resources' page with links to sites with activities related to the content on the website appropriate for K-12 classrooms. The overarching goal of the site is to bridge the gap between scientists and the public through engaging, informational pages and personal experiences in the field, lab, classroom, and community. Current data indicate that 78% of the public find the site through social media platforms and people ages 25-34 are dominantly interacting with the site. 21.7% of users' first interaction (first click once on the homepage) viewed the `Meet the Scientist' blog, 10.2% viewed the climate pages, and 8.4% visited the evolution pages. Statistics and data continue to be collected on the site's traffic will be used to determine the best practices for science communication and ways which the public interacts with educational websites.

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

PubMed

De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo

2014-01-01

Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita

2016-05-16

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

ISMIP6: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, S.

2015-01-01

ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6) targets the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and the Future Sea Level Grand Challenges of the WCRP (World Climate Research Program). Primary goal is to provide future sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with associated uncertainty. Secondary goal is to investigate feedback due to dynamic ice sheet models. Experiment design uses and augment the existing CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) experiments. Additonal MIP (Model Intercomparison Project)- specific experiments will be designed for ISM (Ice Sheet Model). Effort builds on the Ice2sea, SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) and COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) efforts.

History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust.

PubMed

Sanatkar, M R; Scoglio, C; Natarajan, B; Isard, S A; Garrett, K A

2015-07-01

Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing model fit based on each combination of other years of observation. When the miss error rates were weighted by 0.9 and false alarm error rates by 0.1, the mean error rate did decline, for most years, as more years were used to construct models. Models based on observations in years closer in time to the season being estimated gave lower miss error rates for later epidemic years. The weighted mean error rate was lower in backcasting than in forecasting, reflecting how the epidemic had evolved. Ongoing epidemic evolution, and potential model failure, can occur because of changes in climate, host resistance and spatial patterns, or pathogen evolution.

Developing and Evaluating Workshop Frameworks to Improve Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Alvord, C.; Joyce, L. A.; Lukas, J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Owen, G.; Udall, B.

2009-12-01

A burgeoning need for climate information is rising from a variety of stakeholders. A new federal report encourages federal resource management efforts to consider climate in assessments-leaving agency scientists and resource managers searching for appropriate data and methodologies. At the other end of the spectrum, small-scale decision makers realize the need to develop scientifically-informed climate adaptation plans, but are unclear about what science is relevant. It is becoming necessary to improve the climate literacy across all sectors. However, past examples illustrate that climate science has been insufficiently communicated, resulting in perceptions that misinform decision-making and planning. Given the necessity to include climate science in planning on multiple scales, scientific educators must work with stakeholders to determine how best to improve climate literacy. Doing so will reduce uncertainty in the application of climate data in planning, and thus mitigate vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change. Here, we present the design and assessment of two workshop frameworks intended to improve the climate literacy of two distinct entities with different climate information needs. This work represents initial steps by the Western Water Assessment, a NOAA- Regionally Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, towards the development of a suite of process-oriented frameworks geared toward improving the climate literacy of different users with distinct informational needs. Both workshops focused on water-related climate issues: the first (Dealing with Drought: Climate Change in Colorado) was geared toward an audience with minimal exposure to climate information; the second was for US Forest Service hydrologists and managers with technical backgrounds. In both cases, the workshop format included presentations of relevant climate science, introductions to varied climate tools and products, and a needs-and-gaps assessment. Evaluation of each workshop drew upon a variety of tested social science methods, such as focus groups, decision games, surveys, and structured interviews. The efficacy of the framework developed was assessed by evaluating the relationship among the climate information presented, user perceptions about climate information, and incorporation into decision-making. In addition to climate literacy evaluations, participants were presented with a scenario at the beginning of the meeting, and were asked to report periodically on their thoughts on how to approach the scenario as new information was presented throughout the workshop. This allowed us to track the co-evolution of climate literacy, accuracy of data interpretation, and the sophistication of participants’ decision-making. In the 12-months after each workshop, we will track how the climate literacy of the participants evolves, and how their informational needs for decision-making change. The results here will frame a process for how a larger, federal climate-training program might be conducted, and how training needs can be assessed through climate literacy assessments.

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae.

PubMed

Serrano-Serrano, Martha Liliana; Perret, Mathieu; Guignard, Maïté; Chautems, Alain; Silvestro, Daniele; Salamin, Nicolas

2015-11-10

Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios. Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns. Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Range-wide parallel climate-associated genomic clines in Atlantic salmon

PubMed Central

Stanley, Ryan R. E.; Wringe, Brendan F.; Guijarro-Sabaniel, Javier; Bourret, Vincent; Bernatchez, Louis; Bentzen, Paul; Beiko, Robert G.; Gilbey, John; Clément, Marie; Bradbury, Ian R.

2017-01-01

Clinal variation across replicated environmental gradients can reveal evidence of local adaptation, providing insight into the demographic and evolutionary processes that shape intraspecific diversity. Using 1773 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms we evaluated latitudinal variation in allele frequency for 134 populations of North American and European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We detected 84 (4.74%) and 195 (11%) loci showing clinal patterns in North America and Europe, respectively, with 12 clinal loci in common between continents. Clinal single nucleotide polymorphisms were evenly distributed across the salmon genome and logistic regression revealed significant associations with latitude and seasonal temperatures, particularly average spring temperature in both continents. Loci displaying parallel clines were associated with several metabolic and immune functions, suggesting a potential basis for climate-associated adaptive differentiation. These climate-based clines collectively suggest evidence of large-scale environmental associated differences on either side of the North Atlantic. Our results support patterns of parallel evolution on both sides of the North Atlantic, with evidence of both similar and divergent underlying genetic architecture. The identification of climate-associated genomic clines illuminates the role of selection and demographic processes on intraspecific diversity in this species and provides a context in which to evaluate the impacts of climate change. PMID:29291123

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-08-16

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Hargreaves, A L; Bailey, S F; Laird, R A

2015-08-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low-quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low-fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garratt, John R.

1995-01-01

Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

Considering the Role of "Need for Cognition" in Students' Acceptance of Climate Change & Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kudrna, Jeremy; Shore, Marta; Wassenberg, Deena

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and evolution are examples of issues that are perceived differently by scientists and the general public. Within the scientific community, there are clear consensuses that human activities are increasing global temperatures (ACC) and that evolutionary mechanisms have led to the biodiversity of life on Earth…

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model.

PubMed

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N; Catling, David C

2018-04-17

The early Earth's environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0-50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from [Formula: see text] (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary, and to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO 2 , which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.

PubMed

Schneider, Heather E; Mazer, Susan J

2016-01-01

Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur. In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype. Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower. If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

RECONSTRUCTING THE ORIGINS OF HIGH-ALPINE NICHES AND CUSHION LIFE FORM IN THE GENUS ANDROSACE S.L. (PRIMULACEAE)

PubMed Central

Boucher, Florian C.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Roquet, Cristina; Douzet, Rolland; Aubert, Serge; Alvarez, Nadir; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Relatively, few species have been able to colonize extremely cold alpine environments. We investigate the role played by the cushion life form in the evolution of climatic niches in the plant genus Androsace s.l., which spreads across the mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere. Using robust methods that account for phylogenetic uncertainty, intraspecific variability of climatic requirements and different life-history evolution scenarios, we show that climatic niches of Androsace s.l. exhibit low phylogenetic signal and that they evolved relatively recently and punctually. Models of niche evolution fitted onto phylogenies show that the cushion life form has been a key innovation providing the opportunity to occupy extremely cold environments, thus contributing to rapid climatic niche diversification in the genus Androsace s.l. We then propose a plausible scenario for the adaptation of plants to alpine habitats. PMID:22486702

Role of Atmospheric Chemistry in the Climate Impacts of Stratospheric Volcanic Injections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Legrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2016-01-01

The climate impact of a volcanic eruption is known to be dependent on the size, location and timing of the eruption. However, the chemistry and composition of the volcanic plume also control its impact on climate. It is not just sulfur dioxide gas, but also the coincident emissions of water, halogens and ash that influence the radiative and climate forcing of an eruption. Improvements in the capability of models to capture aerosol microphysics, and the inclusion of chemistry and aerosol microphysics modules in Earth system models, allow us to evaluate the interaction of composition and chemistry within volcanic plumes in a new way. These modeling efforts also illustrate the role of water vapor in controlling the chemical evolution, and hence climate impacts, of the plume. A growing realization of the importance of the chemical composition of volcanic plumes is leading to a more sophisticated and realistic representation of volcanic forcing in climate simulations, which in turn aids in reconciling simulations and proxy reconstructions of the climate impacts of past volcanic eruptions. More sophisticated simulations are expected to help, eventually, with predictions of the impact on the Earth system of any future large volcanic eruptions.

Effects of a fire response trait on diversification in replicated radiations.

PubMed

Litsios, Glenn; Wüest, Rafael O; Kostikova, Anna; Forest, Félix; Lexer, Christian; Linder, H Peter; Pearman, Peter B; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Salamin, Nicolas

2014-02-01

Fire has been proposed as a factor explaining the exceptional plant species richness found in Mediterranean regions. A fire response trait that allows plants to cope with frequent fire by either reseeding or resprouting could differentially affect rates of species diversification. However, little is known about the generality of the effects of differing fire response on species evolution. We study this question in the Restionaceae, a family that radiated in Southern Africa and Australia. These radiations occurred independently and represent evolutionary replicates. We apply Bayesian approaches to estimate trait-specific diversification rates and patterns of climatic niche evolution. We also compare the climatic heterogeneity of South Africa and Australia. Reseeders diversify faster than resprouters in South Africa, but not in Australia. We show that climatic preferences evolve more rapidly in reseeder lineages than in resprouters and that the optima of these climatic preferences differ between the two strategies. We find that South Africa is more climatically heterogeneous than Australia, independent of the spatial scale we consider. We propose that rapid shifts between states of the fire response trait promote speciation by separating species ecologically, but this only happens when the landscape is sufficiently heterogeneous. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

P2S--Coupled simulation with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Stream Temperature Network (SNTemp) Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

An Armillaria survey in Mexico: A basis for determining evolutionary relationships, assessing potentially invasive pathogens, evaluating future impacts of climate change, and developing international collaborations in forest pathology

Treesearch

Phil Cannon; Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Dionicio Alvarado Rosales

2008-01-01

In September 2007, a collaborative effort was made to survey Armillaria species in three general areas of south-central Mexico. Collected Armillaria isolates will be subjected to DNA analyses to examine genetic relationships with other Armillaria species. These studies will provide baseline information for examining evolution of Armillaria...

Biophysical modeling of the temporal niche: from first principles to the evolution of activity patterns.

PubMed

Levy, Ofir; Dayan, Tamar; Kronfeld-Schor, Noga; Porter, Warren P

2012-06-01

Most mammals can be characterized as nocturnal or diurnal. However infrequently, species may overcome evolutionary constraints and alter their activity patterns. We modeled the fundamental temporal niche of a diurnal desert rodent, the golden spiny mouse, Acomys russatus. This species can shift into nocturnal activity in the absence of its congener, the common spiny mouse, Acomys cahirinus, suggesting that it was competitively driven into diurnality and that this shift in a small desert rodent may involve physiological costs. Therefore, we compared metabolic costs of diurnal versus nocturnal activity using a biophysical model to evaluate the preferred temporal niche of this species. The model predicted that energy expenditure during foraging is almost always lower during the day except during midday in summer at the less sheltered microhabitat. We also found that a shift in summer to foraging in less sheltered microhabitats in response to predation pressure and food availability involves a significant physiological cost moderated by midday reduction in activity. Thus, adaptation to diurnality may reflect the "ghost of competition past"; climate-driven diurnality is an alternative but less likely hypothesis. While climate is considered to play a major role in the physiology and evolution of mammals, this is the first study to model its potential to affect the evolution of activity patterns of mammals.

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

2012-01-01

This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

Climate, critters, and cetaceans: Cenozoic drivers of the evolution of modern whales.

PubMed

Marx, Felix G; Uhen, Mark D

2010-02-19

Modern cetaceans, a poster child of evolution, play an important role in the ocean ecosystem as apex predators and nutrient distributors, as well as evolutionary "stepping stones" for the deep sea biota. Recent discussions on the impact of climate change and marine exploitation on current cetacean populations may benefit from insights into what factors have influenced cetacean diversity in the past. Previous studies suggested that the rise of diatoms as dominant marine primary producers and global temperature change were key factors in the evolution of modern whales. Based on a comprehensive diversity data set, we show that much of observed cetacean paleodiversity can indeed be explained by diatom diversity in conjunction with variations in climate as indicated by oxygen stable isotope records (delta18O).

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anton, J. M.; Grau, J. B.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.; Cisneros, J. M.

2012-04-01

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such "Climate change" is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China …, and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geomorphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Gonçalvès, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.-P.

In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geomorphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geomorphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine surrection. Climate forcing results from palaeoclimate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (˜3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA’s Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid potentials. The dependence of the boundary-induced transient effects on the hydraulic diffusivity is illustrated by means of a sensitivity study.

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model

PubMed Central

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N.

2018-01-01

The early Earth’s environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0–50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6−0.4+0.6 (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0−0.5+0.7 (2σ) at the Archean–Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9−0.2+0.1 (2σ) at the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering. PMID:29610313

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N.; Catling, David C.

2018-04-01

The early Earth’s environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0–50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6‑0.4+0.6 (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0‑0.5+0.7 (2σ) at the Archean–Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9‑0.2+0.1 (2σ) at the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering.

Whole planet coupling between climate, mantle, and core: Implications for rocky planet evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Bradford J.; Driscoll, Peter E.

2016-05-01

Earth's climate, mantle, and core interact over geologic time scales. Climate influences whether plate tectonics can take place on a planet, with cool climates being favorable for plate tectonics because they enhance stresses in the lithosphere, suppress plate boundary annealing, and promote hydration and weakening of the lithosphere. Plate tectonics plays a vital role in the long-term carbon cycle, which helps to maintain a temperate climate. Plate tectonics provides long-term cooling of the core, which is vital for generating a magnetic field, and the magnetic field is capable of shielding atmospheric volatiles from the solar wind. Coupling between climate, mantle, and core can potentially explain the divergent evolution of Earth and Venus. As Venus lies too close to the sun for liquid water to exist, there is no long-term carbon cycle and thus an extremely hot climate. Therefore, plate tectonics cannot operate and a long-lived core dynamo cannot be sustained due to insufficient core cooling. On planets within the habitable zone where liquid water is possible, a wide range of evolutionary scenarios can take place depending on initial atmospheric composition, bulk volatile content, or the timing of when plate tectonics initiates, among other factors. Many of these evolutionary trajectories would render the planet uninhabitable. However, there is still significant uncertainty over the nature of the coupling between climate, mantle, and core. Future work is needed to constrain potential evolutionary scenarios and the likelihood of an Earth-like evolution.

Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, T. J.

2015-10-01

Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolved societal dynamics. If this model is initialized with economic data from the 1950s, it yields hindcasts for how fast global economic production and energy consumption grew between 2000 and 2010 with skill scores > 90 % relative to a model of persistence in trends. The model appears to attain high skill partly because there was a strong impulse of discovery of fossil fuel energy reserves in the mid-twentieth century that helped civilization to grow rapidly as a deterministic physical response. Forecasting the coming century may prove more of a challenge because the effect of the energy impulse appears to have nearly run its course. Nonetheless, an understanding of the external forces that drive civilization may help development of constrained futures for the coupled evolution of civilization and climate during the Anthropocene.

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.

PubMed

Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J

2013-08-01

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

2007-11-01

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in Africa. In particular, hominin species seem to differentially originate and go extinct during periods of extreme climate variability. Results presented in this volume may represent the basis of a new theory of early human evolution in Africa.

Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shanlei; Wang, Guojie; Huang, Jin; Mu, Mengyuan; Yan, Guixia; Liu, Chunwei; Gao, Chujie; Li, Xing; Yin, Yixing; Zhang, Fangmin; Zhu, Siguang; Hua, Wenjian

2017-11-01

Due to the close relationship of climate change with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), detecting changes in ETo spatial distribution and its temporal evolution at local and regional levels is favorable to comprehensively understand climate change-induced impacts on hydrology and agriculture. In this study, the objective is to identify whether climate change has caused variation of ETo spatial distribution in different analysis periods [i.e., long- (20-year), medium- (10-year), and short-term (5-year)] and to investigate its temporal evolution (namely, when these changes happened) at annual and monthly scales in Southwest China (SWC). First, we estimated ETo values using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, based on historical climate data measured at 269 weather sites during 1973-2012. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicated that the spatial pattern of annual ETo had significantly changed during the past 40 years, particularly in west SWC for the long-term analysis period, and west and southeast SWC in both medium- and short-term periods, which corresponded to the percent area of significant differences which were 21.9, 58.0, and 48.2 %, respectively. For investigating temporal evolution of spatial patterns of annual ETo, Duncan's multiple range test was used, and we found that the most significant changes appeared during 1988-2002 with the significant area of higher than 25.0 %. In addition, for long-, medium-, and short-term analysis periods, the spatial distribution has significantly changed during March, September, November, and December, especially in the corresponding periods of 1988-1997, 1983-1992, 1973-1977, and 1988-2002. All in all, climate change has resulted in significant ETo changes in SWC since the 1970s. Knowledge of climate change-induced spatial distribution of ETo and its temporal evolution would aid in formulating strategies for water resources and agricultural managements.

Numerical simulation of geomorphic, climatic and anthropogenic drivers of soil distribution on semi-arid hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.; Svoray, T.; Sela, S.; Hancock, G. R.

2010-12-01

Numerical models are an important tool for studying landscape processes as they allow us to isolate specific processes and drivers and test various physics and spatio-temporal scenarios. Here we use a distributed physically-based soil evolution model (mARM4D) to describe the drivers and processes controlling soil-landscape evolution on a field-site at the fringe between the Mediterranean and desert regions of Israel. This study is an initial effort in a larger project aimed at improving our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers that led to the extensive removal of soils from the loess covered hillslopes of this region. This specific region is interesting as it is located between the Mediterranean climate region in which widespread erosion from hillslopes was attributed to human activity during the Holocene and the arid region in which extensive removal of loess from hillslopes was shown to have been driven by climatic changes during the late-Pleistocene. First we study the sediment transport mechanism of the soil-landscape evolution processes in our study-site. We simulate soil-landscape evolution with only one sediment transport process (fluvial or diffusive) at a time. We find that diffusive sediment transport is likely the dominant process in this site as it resulted in soil distributions that better corresponds to current observations. We then simulate several realistic climatic/anthropogenic scenarios (based on the literature) in order to quantify the sensitivity of the soil-landscape evolution process to temporal fluctuations. We find that this site is relatively insensitive to short term (several thousands of years) sharp, changes. This suggests that climate, rather then human activity, was the main driver for the extensive removal of loess from the hillslopes.

Role of ice sheet dynamics in the collapse of the early-Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Ivanovic, R. F.

2017-12-01

The last stage of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum ( 9000 to 7000 years ago) provides an analogy and insight to the possible responses of contemporary ice sheets in a warming climate. What makes LIS particularly interesting is that meltwater from the collapse of an ice saddle over Hudson Bay was recently shown to be the primary forcing for the period of abrupt northern hemisphere cooling known as the 8.2 ka event. The evolution of the LIS during this period was likely influenced by its interaction with marginal lakes and the ocean, and its major ice stream, which exported ice towards Hudson Strait. Accurately simulating the early Holocene LIS evolution thus requires a model such as BISICLES, capable of accurately and efficiently resolving ice stream dynamics and grounding line migration thanks to the combined use of higher order physics and adaptive mesh refinement. We drive the BISICLES model using a positive degree day mass balance scheme with monthly precipitation and temperature from the HadCM3 climate model under climatic conditions from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. We test the effect of varying the initial topographies and ice thicknesses from different timeslices in the ICE-6Gc reconstruction. We also test different parameterisations for the basal friction based on the thicknesses of the underlying sediments. These simulations evaluate the role of the Hudson Strait ice stream, ice sheet dynamics and interactions with the adjacent proglacial Lake Agassiz and North Atlantic Ocean in the collapse of the LIS. Our results highlight that the choice of parameterisation for basal friction has major effects on ice sheet dynamics and evolution.

Peat in the ?Niayes? of Senegal: depositional environment and Holocene evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lézine, A.-M.; Chateauneuf, J.-J.

The "Niayes" peat deposits north of Dakar, in Senegal, provide an unusual opportunity to study the continental and littoral detrital environment of the Holocene in West Africa. These organic deposits, that may attain a thickness of 10m, accumulated in Late Pleistocene interdune basins whose extend morphology depend closely upon the palaeohydrologic evolution of and the continental model for this zone during the Holocene. The present sub-Canarian climate of this region allows the preservation of an azonal vegetation of Guinean chorological affinity that is evidence of the wider development of now more southerly vegetation during the older Holocene. The nature of the sedimentary facies of these peatfields is closely related to the altitude of the basins of accumulation and the position of the fresh/salt water interface which conditions the recharge of the shallow aquifer. Thus, fresh-water and mangrove-swamp peats exist more or less closely associated according to the site. 14C age determinations gives ages for these deposits between 12000 B.P. and the present, and detailed palynological studies have shown that there were two periods of climatic optimum, one between 9000 and 7000 B.P. and one between 4000 and 2000 B.P. The highly variable rates of sedimentation (0.2-12,5 mm/y for the continental zones and 2 mm/y for the mangrove swamps) are related to the paleotopography of the water-table or to very local fluctuations of sea level. The evolution of the vegetal biomass, evaluated both qualitatively (relative representation of the various vegetation levels) and quantitatively (concentration of pollen per gram of dry sediment) during the course of the Holocene enables reconstruction of the complete climatic and hydrologic history of the region up to the dawn of the Present.

Contrasting evolutionary processes during Quaternary climatic changes and historical orogenies: a case study of the Japanese endemic primroses Primula sect. Reinii.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Masaya; Ohtani, Masato; Kurata, Kaoruko; Setoguchi, Hiroaki

2017-11-28

Recent biogeographic studies have illustrated that Quaternary climatic changes and historical orogenies have driven the development of high levels of biodiversity. In this context, phylogenetic niche conservatism may play a role as a major precursor of allopatric speciation. However, the effects of niche evolution on the diversification patterns of plant species under rapid habitat changes are still unknown. Here, Primula section Reinii, one of the few primroses endemic to the Japanese Archipelago, was investigated. This study aimed to clarify the phylogenetic position and relationships of section Reinii, interpret the biogeographic and diversification patterns of this group and gain a better understanding of the role of climatic niche evolution in the Japanese endemic primroses. Dated phylogeny for Primula section Reinii is presented based on the sequences of six chloroplast genes and one nuclear gene. Biogeographic history was reconstructed using statistical dispersal-vicariance analysis. Macro-evolutionary modelling of the climatic niche was combined with biogeographic inferences. Section Reinii was shown to be monophyletic based on chloroplast and nuclear sequences. Fossil-calibrated dating analysis estimated that this section diverged from its sister taxon, sect. Cortusoides, around 1.82 million years ago, and intraspecific diversification occurred within the last million years. This time frame was characterized by Quaternary climatic oscillations and uplift of high mountains in Japan. Biogeographic inference suggested that this section originated at the northern end of the Japanese Archipelago and then dispersed southward to other islands. Models of climatic niche evolution indicated that the closely related species P. reinii and P. tosanensis have contrasting niche optima and rates of niche evolution. Our results highlight that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the Japanese islands may play a significant role in the biogeographic history of Japanese endemic primroses. Contrasting evolutionary processes found in closely related species illustrate the effects of climatic niche evolution on species' diversification patterns. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

On Budyko curve as a consequence of climate-soil-vegetation equilibrium hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.

2012-04-01

A hypothesis that Budyko curve is a consequence of stable equilibriums of climate-soil-vegetation co-evolution is tested at biome scale. We assume that i) distribution of vegetation, soil and climate within a biome is a distribution of equilibriums of similar soil-vegetation dynamics and that this dynamics is different across different biomes and ii) soil and vegetation are in dynamic equilibrium with climate while in static equilibrium with each other. In order to test the hypothesis, a two stage regression is considered using MOPEX/Hydrologic Synthesis Project dataset for basins in eastern United States. In the first stage, multivariate regression (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) is performed for each biome with soil (estimated porosity and slope of soil water retention curve) and vegetation characteristics (5-week NDVI gradient) as dependent variables and aridity index, vegetation and soil characteristics as independent variables for respective dependent variables. The regression residuals of the first stage along with aridity index then serve as second stage independent variables while actual vaporization to precipitation ratio (vapor index) serving as dependent variable. Insignificance, if revealed, of a first stage parameter allows us to reject the role of corresponding soil or vegetation characteristics in the co-evolution hypothesis. Meanwhile the significance of second stage regression parameter corresponding to a first stage residual allow us to reject the hypothesis that Budyko curve is a locus "solely" of climate-soil-vegetation co-evolution equilibrium points. Results suggest lack of evidence for soil-vegetation co-evolution in Prairies and Mixed/SouthEast Forests (unlike in Deciduous Forests) though climate plays a dominant role in explaining within biome soil and vegetation characteristics across all the biomes. Preliminary results indicate absence of effects beyond climate-soil-vegetation co-evolution in explaining the ratio of annual total minimum monthly flows to precipitation in Deciduous Forests though other three biome types show presence of effects beyond co-evolutionary. Such an analysis can yield insights into the nature of hydrologic change when assessed along the Budyko curve as well as non co-evolutionary effects such as anthropogenic effects on basin scale annual water balances.

How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution

PubMed Central

McInerny, G.J.; Turner, J.R.G.; Wong, H.Y.; Travis, J.M.J.; Benton, T.G.

2009-01-01

We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects (‘mutation surfing’), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations ‘wipe out’). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting. PMID:19324824

How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution.

PubMed

McInerny, G J; Turner, J R G; Wong, H Y; Travis, J M J; Benton, T G

2009-04-22

We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects ('mutation surfing'), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations 'wipe out'). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting.

Fluctuating environments, sexual selection and the evolution of flexible mate choice in birds.

PubMed

Botero, Carlos A; Rubenstein, Dustin R

2012-01-01

Environmentally-induced fluctuation in the form and strength of natural selection can drive the evolution of morphology, physiology, and behavior. Here we test the idea that fluctuating climatic conditions may also influence the process of sexual selection by inducing unexpected reversals in the relative quality or sexual attractiveness of potential breeding partners. Although this phenomenon, known as 'ecological cross-over', has been documented in a variety of species, it remains unclear the extent to which it has driven the evolution of major interspecific differences in reproductive behavior. We show that after controlling for potentially influential life history and demographic variables, there are significant positive associations between the variability and predictability of annual climatic cycles and the prevalence of infidelity and divorce within populations of a taxonomically diverse array of socially monogamous birds. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that environmental factors have shaped the evolution of reproductive flexibility and suggest that in the absence of severe time constraints, secondary mate choice behaviors can help prevent, correct, or minimize the negative consequences of ecological cross-overs. Our findings also illustrate how a basic evolutionary process like sexual selection is susceptible to the increasing variability and unpredictability of climatic conditions that is resulting from climate change.

Climatology of convective showers dynamics in a convection-permitting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brisson, Erwan; Brendel, Christoph; Ahrens, Bodo

2017-04-01

Convection-permitting simulations have proven their usefulness in improving both the representation of convective rain and the uncertainty range of climate projections. However, most studies have focused on temporal scales greater or equal to convection cell lifetime. A large knowledge gap remains on the model's performance in representing the temporal dynamic of convective showers and how could this temporal dynamic be altered in a warmer climate. In this study, we proposed to fill this gap by analyzing 5-minute convection-permitting model (CPM) outputs. In total, more than 1200 one-day cases are simulated at the resolution of 0.01° using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe. The analysis follows a Lagrangian approach and consists of tracking showers characterized by five-minute intensities greater than 20 mm/hour. The different features of these showers (e.g., temporal evolution, horizontal speed, lifetime) are investigated. These features as modeled by an ERA-Interim forced simulation are evaluated using a radar dataset for the period 2004-2010. The model shows good performance in representing most features observed in the radar dataset. Besides, the observed relation between the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature are well reproduced by the CPM. In a second modeling experiment, the impact of climate change on convective cell features are analyzed based on an EC-Earth RCP8.5 forced simulation for the period 2071-2100. First results show only minor changes in the temporal structure and size of showers. The increase in convective precipitation found in previous studies seems to be mainly due to an increase in the number of convective cells.

The Met Office HadGEM3-ES chemistry-climate model: evaluation of stratospheric dynamics and its impact on ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, Steven C.; Butchart, Neal; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Rumbold, Steven T.

2017-03-01

Free-running and nudged versions of a Met Office chemistry-climate model are evaluated and used to investigate the impact of dynamics versus transport and chemistry within the model on the simulated evolution of stratospheric ozone. Metrics of the dynamical processes relevant for simulating stratospheric ozone are calculated, and the free-running model is found to outperform the previous model version in 10 of the 14 metrics. In particular, large biases in stratospheric transport and tropical tropopause temperature, which existed in the previous model version, are substantially reduced, making the current model more suitable for the simulation of stratospheric ozone. The spatial structure of the ozone hole, the area of polar stratospheric clouds, and the increased ozone concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere following sudden stratospheric warmings, were all found to be sensitive to the accuracy of the dynamics and were better simulated in the nudged model than in the free-running model. Whilst nudging can, in general, provide a useful tool for removing the influence of dynamical biases from the evolution of chemical fields, this study shows that issues can remain in the climatology of nudged models. Significant biases in stratospheric vertical velocities, age of air, water vapour, and total column ozone still exist in the Met Office nudged model. Further, these can lead to biases in the downward flux of ozone into the troposphere.

Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution.

PubMed

Potts, Richard; Faith, J Tyler

2015-10-01

Interaction of orbital insolation cycles defines a predictive model of alternating phases of high- and low-climate variability for tropical East Africa over the past 5 million years. This model, which is described in terms of climate variability stages, implies repeated increases in landscape/resource instability and intervening periods of stability in East Africa. It predicts eight prolonged (>192 kyr) eras of intensified habitat instability (high variability stages) in which hominin evolutionary innovations are likely to have occurred, potentially by variability selection. The prediction that repeated shifts toward high climate variability affected paleoenvironments and evolution is tested in three ways. In the first test, deep-sea records of northeast African terrigenous dust flux (Sites 721/722) and eastern Mediterranean sapropels (Site 967A) show increased and decreased variability in concert with predicted shifts in climate variability. These regional measurements of climate dynamics are complemented by stratigraphic observations in five basins with lengthy stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental records: the mid-Pleistocene Olorgesailie Basin, the Plio-Pleistocene Turkana and Olduvai Basins, and the Pliocene Tugen Hills sequence and Hadar Basin--all of which show that highly variable landscapes inhabited by hominin populations were indeed concentrated in predicted stages of prolonged high climate variability. Second, stringent null-model tests demonstrate a significant association of currently known first and last appearance datums (FADs and LADs) of the major hominin lineages, suites of technological behaviors, and dispersal events with the predicted intervals of prolonged high climate variability. Palynological study in the Nihewan Basin, China, provides a third test, which shows the occupation of highly diverse habitats in eastern Asia, consistent with the predicted increase in adaptability in dispersing Oldowan hominins. Integration of fossil, archeological, sedimentary, and paleolandscape evidence illustrates the potential influence of prolonged high variability on the origin and spread of critical adaptations and lineages in the evolution of Homo. The growing body of data concerning environmental dynamics supports the idea that the evolution of adaptability in response to climate and overall ecological instability represents a unifying theme in hominin evolutionary history. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Habitable Zone Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, D.; Lota, J.

2012-12-01

The location of the habitable zone around a star depends upon stellar luminosity and upon the properties of a potentially habitable planet such as its mass and near-surface volatile inventory. Stellar luminosity generally increases as a star ages whilst planetary properties change through time as a consequence of biological and geological evolution. Hence, the location of the habitable zone changes through time as a result of both stellar evolution and planetary evolution. Using the Earth's Phanerozoic temperature history as a constraint, it is shown that changes in our own habitable zone over the last 540 My have been dominated by planetary evolution rather than solar evolution. Furthermore, sparse data from earlier times suggests that planetary evolution may have dominated habitable zone development throughout our biosphere's history. Hence, the existence of a continuously habitable zone depends upon accidents of complex bio-geochemical evolution more than it does upon relatively simple stellar-evolution. Evolution of the inner margin of the habitable zone through time using three different estimates for climate sensitivity. The dashed line shows a typical predicted evolution assuming this was driven simply by a steady increase in solar luminosity. Solar evolution does not account for the observations. Evolution of the outer margin of the habitable zone through time using three different estimates for climate sensitivity. The dashed line shows a typical predicted evolution assuming this was driven simply by a steady increase in solar luminosity. Solar evolution does not account for the observations.

Landscape evolution and agricultural land salinization in coastal area: A conceptual model.

PubMed

Bless, Aplena Elen; Colin, François; Crabit, Armand; Devaux, Nicolas; Philippon, Olivier; Follain, Stéphane

2018-06-01

Soil salinization is a major threat to agricultural lands. Among salt-affected lands, coastal areas could be considered as highly complex systems, where salinization degradation due to anthropogenic pressure and climate-induced changes could significantly alter system functioning. For such complex systems, conceptual models can be used as evaluation tools in a preliminary step to identify the main evolutionary processes responsible for soil and water salinization. This study aimed to propose a conceptual model for water fluxes in a coastal area affected by salinity, which can help to identify the relationships between agricultural landscape evolution and actual salinity. First, we conducted field investigations from 2012 to 2016, mainly based on both soil (EC 1/5 ) and water (EC w ) electrical conductivity survey. This allowed us to characterize spatial structures for EC 1/5 and EC w and to identify the river as a preponderant factor in land salinization. Subsequently, we proposed and used a conceptual model for water fluxes and conducted a time analysis (1962-2012) for three of its main constitutive elements, namely climate, river, and land systems. When integrated within the conceptual model framework, it appeared that the evolution of all constitutive elements since 1962 was responsible for the disruption of system equilibrium, favoring overall salt accumulation in the soil root zone. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the temperature evolution of permafrost and seasonal frost in southern Norway during the 20th and 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hipp, T.; Etzelmüller, B.; Farbrot, H.; Schuler, T. V.

2011-03-01

A heat flow model was used to simulate both past and future ground temperatures of mountain permafrost in Southern Norway. A reconstructed air temperature series back to 1860 was used to evaluate the permafrost evolution since the end of the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of a changing climate on discontinuous mountain permafrost until 2100 is predicted by using downscaled temperatures from an ensemble of downscaled climate models for the A1B scenario. From 13 borehole locations two consecutive years of ground temperature, air temperature and snow cover data are available for model calibration and validation. The boreholes are located at different elevations and in substrates having different thermal properties. With an increase of air temperature of ~+1.5 °C over 1860-2010 and an additional warming of +2.8 °C towards 2100 in air temperature, we simulate the evolution of ground temperatures for the borehole locations. According to model results, the active-layer thickness has increased since 1860 by about 0.5-5 m and >10 m for the sites Juvvass and Tron, respectively. The simulations also suggest that at an elevation of about 1900 m a.s.l. permafrost will degrade until the end of this century with a likelihood of 55-75% given the chosen A1B scenario.

Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

2015-12-01

The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

Teaching Historical Geology through a Climate Science Lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleary, P.

2007-12-01

As traditional Geology departments choose to reinvent themselves in light of waning interest in rocks and fossils, waxing interest in environmental, interdisciplinary issues, and advancements in pedagogy that champion inquiry and student based learning, the question begs, "What is to be done with that behemoth, historical geology?" Typically an introductory earth history course presents the timeline background to the origin and evolution of the planet Earth. At UW-Parkside, Origin and History of the Earth is taught from a climatic and dynamic equilibrium perspective using the textbook Earth's Climate Past and Future by William F. Ruddiman. The course is sectioned into 4 parts: 1) Water, Oxygen and Life on Earth, 2) Feedbacks: Greenhouse and Snowball Earth, 3) Mass Extinctions and 4) Present and Future Climate Change. While the course retains a focus upon historical dating and sampling, plate tectonics, the Milankovitch cycles and evolution, students encounter those topics as applied to solving problems reconstructing past climates, assessing the evolution of the past and future atmosphere and investigating mass extinctions. In class, small group work allows us to replace much of the standard passive lecture format with activities and outcomes congruent with a broader, environmentally cohesive picture of the planet, particularly with respect to climate change. The curriculum, activities, outcomes and assessment strategies of this new approach to an ancient class will be discussed. As an introductory course, and possible general education course, the curriculum addresses current issues of climate change to a broader audience than upper level coursework.

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2015-03-07

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The MeteoMet2 project—highlights and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merlone, A.; Sanna, F.; Beges, G.; Bell, S.; Beltramino, G.; Bojkovski, J.; Brunet, M.; del Campo, D.; Castrillo, A.; Chiodo, N.; Colli, M.; Coppa, G.; Cuccaro, R.; Dobre, M.; Drnovsek, J.; Ebert, V.; Fernicola, V.; Garcia-Benadí, A.; Garcia-Izquierdo, C.; Gardiner, T.; Georgin, E.; Gonzalez, A.; Groselj, D.; Heinonen, M.; Hernandez, S.; Högström, R.; Hudoklin, D.; Kalemci, M.; Kowal, A.; Lanza, L.; Miao, P.; Musacchio, C.; Nielsen, J.; Nogueras-Cervera, M.; Oguz Aytekin, S.; Pavlasek, P.; de Podesta, M.; Rasmussen, M. K.; del-Río-Fernández, J.; Rosso, L.; Sairanen, H.; Salminen, J.; Sestan, D.; Šindelářová, L.; Smorgon, D.; Sparasci, F.; Strnad, R.; Underwood, R.; Uytun, A.; Voldan, M.

2018-02-01

Launched in 2011 within the European Metrology Research Programme (EMRP) of EURAMET, the joint research project ‘MeteoMet’—Metrology for Meteorology—is the largest EMRP consortium; national metrology institutes, universities, meteorological and climate agencies, research institutes, collaborators and manufacturers are working together, developing new metrological techniques, as well as improving existing ones, for use in meteorological observations and climate records. The project focuses on humidity in the upper and surface atmosphere, air temperature, surface and deep-sea temperatures, soil moisture, salinity, permafrost temperature, precipitation, and the snow albedo effect on air temperature. All tasks are performed using a rigorous metrological approach and include the design and study of new sensors, new calibration facilities, the investigation of sensor characteristics, improved techniques for measurements of essential climate variables with uncertainty evaluation, traceability, laboratory proficiency and the inclusion of field influencing parameters, long-lasting measurements, and campaigns in remote and extreme areas. The vision for MeteoMet is to take a step further towards establishing full data comparability, coherency, consistency, and long-term continuity, through a comprehensive evaluation of the measurement uncertainties for the quantities involved in the global climate observing systems and the derived observations. The improvement in quality of essential climate variables records, through the inclusion of measurement uncertainty budgets, will also highlight possible strategies for the reduction of the uncertainty. This contribution presents selected highlights of the MeteoMet project and reviews the main ongoing activities, tasks and deliverables, with a view to its possible future evolution and extended impact.

The hydrologic response of Mars to the onset of a colder climate and to the thermal evolution of its early crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, S. M.

1993-01-01

Morphologic similarities between the Martian valley networks and terrestrial runoff channel have been cited as evidence that the early Martian climate was originally more Earth-like, with temperatures and pressures high enough to permit the precipitation of H2O as snow or rain. Although unambiguous evidence that Mars once possessed a warmer, wetter climate is lacking, a study of the transition from such conditions to the present climate can benefit our understanding of both the early development of the cryosphere and the various ways in which the current subsurface hydrology of Mars is likely to differ from that of the Earth. Viewed from this perspective, the early hydrologic evolution of Mars is essentially identical to considering the hydrologic response of the Earth to the onset of a global subfreezing climate.

The future of the Devon Ice cap: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Rodehacke, Christian; Boberg, Fredrik

2017-04-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we use high resolution (5km) simulations from HIRHAM5 to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Mars, Always Cold, Sometimes Wet: New Constraints on Mars Denudation Rates and Climate Evolution from Analog Studies at Haughton Crater, Devon Island, High Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Pascal; Boucher, M.; Desportes, C.; Glass, B. J.; Lim, D.; McKay, C. P.; Osinski, G. R.; Parnell, J.; Schutt, J. W.

2005-01-01

Analysis of crater modification on Mars and at Haughton Crater, Devon Island, High Arctic, which was recently shown to be significantly older than previously believed (Eocene age instead of Miocene) [1], suggest that Mars may have never been climatically wet and warm for geological lengths of time during and since the Late Noachian. Impact structures offer particularly valuable records of the evolution of a planet s climate and landscape through time. The state of exposure and preservation of impact structures and their intracrater fill provide clues to the nature, timing, and intensity of the processes that have modified the craters since their formation. Modifying processes include weathering, erosion, mantling, and infilling. In this study, we compare the modification of Haughton through time with that of impact craters in the same size class on Mars. We derive upper limits for time-integrated denudation rates on Mars during and since the Late Noachian. These rates are significantly lower than previously published and provide important constraints for Mars climate evolution.

Locomotion in response to shifting climate zones: not so fast.

PubMed

Feder, Martin E; Garland, Theodore; Marden, James H; Zera, Anthony J

2010-01-01

Although a species' locomotor capacity is suggestive of its ability to escape global climate change, such a suggestion is not necessarily straightforward. Species vary substantially in locomotor capacity, both ontogenetically and within/among populations, and much of this variation has a genetic basis. Accordingly, locomotor capacity can and does evolve rapidly, as selection experiments demonstrate. Importantly, even though this evolution of locomotor capacity may be rapid enough to escape changing climate, genetic correlations among traits (often due to pleiotropy) are such that successful or rapid dispersers are often limited in colonization or reproductive ability, which may be viewed as a trade-off. The nuanced assessment of this variation and evolution is reviewed for well-studied models: salmon, flying versus flightless insects, rodents undergoing experimental evolution, and metapopulations of butterflies. This work reveals how integration of physiology with population biology and functional genomics can be especially informative.

Different rates of defense evolution and niche preferences in clonal and nonclonal milkweeds (Asclepias spp.).

PubMed

Pellissier, Loïc; Litsios, Glenn; Fishbein, Mark; Salamin, Nicolas; Agrawal, Anurag A; Rasmann, Sergio

2016-02-01

Given the dual role of many plant traits to tolerate both herbivore attack and abiotic stress, the climatic niche of a species should be integrated into the study of plant defense strategies. Here we investigate the impact of plant reproductive strategy and components of species' climatic niche on the rate of chemical defense evolution in the milkweeds using a common garden experiment of 49 species. We found that across Asclepias species, clonal reproduction repeatedly evolved in lower temperature conditions, in species generally producing low concentrations of a toxic defense (cardenolides). Additionally, we found that rates of cardenolide evolution were lower for clonal than for nonclonal species. We thus conclude that because the clonal strategy is based on survival, long generation times, and is associated with tolerance of herbivory, it may be an alternative to toxicity in colder ecosystems. Taken together, these results indicate that the rate of chemical defense evolution is influenced by the intersection of life-history strategy and climatic niches into which plants radiate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Evolving the US Climate Resilience Toolkit to Support a Climate-Smart Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Niepold, F., III; Fox, J. F.; Herring, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Hall, N.; Gardiner, N.

2015-12-01

Communities, businesses, resource managers, and decision-makers at all levels of government need information to understand and ameliorate climate-related risks. Likewise, climate information can expose latent opportunities. Moving from climate science to social and economic decisions raises complex questions about how to communicate the causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities faced by communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans at local, regional, and national scales. A broad coalition of federal agencies launched the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov) in November 2014 to help our nation build resilience to climate-related extreme events. The site's primary audience is planners and decision makers in business, resource management, and government (at all levels) who seek science-based climate information and tools to help them in their near- and long-term planning. The Executive Office of the President assembled a task force of dozens of subject experts from across the 13 agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to guide the site's development. The site's ongoing evolution is driven by feedback from the target audience. For example, based on feedback, climate projections will soon play a more prominent role in the site's "Climate Explorer" tool and case studies. The site's five-step adaptation planning process is being improved to better facilitate people getting started and to provide clear benchmarks for evaluating progress along the way. In this session, we will share lessons learned from a series of user engagements around the nation and evidence that the Toolkit couples climate information with actionable decision-making processes in ways that are helping Americans build resilience to climate-related stressors.

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

Empirical evidence of climate's role in Rocky Mountain landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihimaki, Catherine A.; Reiners, Peter W.

2012-06-01

Climate may be the dominant factor affecting landscape evolution during the late Cenozoic, but models that connect climate and landscape evolution cannot be tested without precise ages of landforms. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages of clinker, metamorphosed rock formed by burning of underlying coal seams, provide constraints on the spatial and temporal patterns of Quaternary erosion in the Powder River basin of Wyoming and Montana. The age distribution of 86 sites shows two temporal patterns: (1) a bias toward younger ages because of erosion of older clinker and (2) periodic occurrence of coal fires likely corresponding with particular climatic regimes. Statistical t tests of the ages and spectral analyses of the age probability density function indicate that these episodes of frequent coal fires most likely correspond with times of high eccentricity in Earth's orbit, possibly driven by increased seasonality in the region causing increased erosion rates and coal exhumation. Correlation of ages with interglacial time periods is weaker. The correlations between climate and coal fires improve when only samples greater than 50 km from the front of the Bighorn Range, the site of the nearest alpine glaciation, are compared. Together, these results indicate that the interaction between upstream glaciation and downstream erosion is likely not the dominant control on Quaternary landscape evolution in the Powder River basin, particularly since 0.5 Ma. Instead, incision rates are likely controlled by the response of streams to climate shifts within the basin itself, possibly changes in local precipitation rates or frequency-magnitude distributions, with no discernable lag time between climate changes and landscape responses. Clinker ages are consistent with numerical models in which stream erosion is driven by fluctuations in stream power on thousand year timescales within the basins, possibly as a result of changing precipitation patterns, and is driven by regional rock uplift on million year timescales.

Determining spatially discretized surface flow and baseflow in the context of climate change and water quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimonet, M.; Oudin, L.; Rabouille, C.; Garnier, J.; Silvestre, M.; Vautard, R.; Thieu, V.

2016-12-01

Water quality management of fresh and marine aquatic systems requires modelling tools along the land-ocean continuum in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on nutrient transfer and on potential ecosystem dysfonctioning (e.g. eutrophication, anoxia). In addition to direct effects of climate change on water temperature, it is essential to consider indirect effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrology since nutrient transfers are particularly sensitive to the partition of streamflow between surface flow and baseflow. Yet, the determination of surface flow and baseflow, their spatial repartition on drainage basins, and their relative potential evolution under climate change remains challenging. In this study, we developed a generic approach to determine 10-day surface flow and baseflow using a regionalized hydrological model applied at a high spatial resolution (unitary catchments of area circa 10km²). Streamflow data at gauged basins were used to calibrate hydrological model parameters that were then applied on neighbor ungauged basins to estimate streamflow at the scale of the French territory. The proposed methodology allowed representing spatialized surface flow and baseflow that are consistent with climatic and geomorphological settings. The methodology was then used to determine the effect of climate change on the spatial repartition of surface flow and baseflow on the Seine drainage bassin. Results showed large discrepancies of both the amount and the spatial repartition of changes of surface flow and baseflow according to the several GCM and RCM used to derive projected climatic forcing. Consequently, it is expected that the impact of climate change on nutrient transfer might also be quite heterogeneous for the Seine River. This methodology could be applied in any drainage basin where at least several gauged hydrometric stations are available. The estimated surface flow and baseflow can then be used in hydro-ecological models in order to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of climate change on nutrient transfers and potential ecosystem dysfunctioning along the land-ocean continuum.

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit.

PubMed

Hoy, Sarah R; Peterson, Rolf O; Vucetich, John A

2018-06-01

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the Role of Seafloor Weathering in Global Geochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Abbot, D. S.; Archer, D. E.

2015-12-01

Low-temperature alteration of the basaltic upper oceanic crust, known as seafloor weathering, has been proposed as a mechanism for long-term climate regulation similar to the continental climate-weathering negative feedback. Despite this potentially far-reaching impact of seafloor weathering on habitable planet evolution, existing modeling frameworks do not include the full scope of alteration reactions or recent findings of convective flow dynamics. We present a coupled fluid dynamic and geochemical numerical model of low-temperature, off-axis hydrothermal activity. This model is designed to explore the the seafloor weathering flux of carbon to the oceanic crust and its responsiveness to climate fluctuations. The model's ability to reproduce the seafloor weathering environment is evaluated by constructing numerical simulations for comparison with two low-temperature hydrothermal systems: A transect east of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the southern Costa Rica Rift flank. We explore the sensitivity of carbon uptake by seafloor weathering on climate and geology by varying deep ocean temperature, seawater dissolved inorganic carbon, continental weathering inputs, and basaltic host rock in a suite of numerical experiments.

Including Fossils in Phylogenetic Climate Reconstructions: A Deep Time Perspective on the Climatic Niche Evolution and Diversification of Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus).

PubMed

Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David; Hews, Diana K; Martins, Emília P

2016-08-01

Fossils and other paleontological information can improve phylogenetic comparative method estimates of phenotypic evolution and generate hypotheses related to species diversification. Here, we use fossil information to calibrate ancestral reconstructions of suitable climate for Sceloporus lizards in North America. Integrating data from the fossil record, general circulation models of paleoclimate during the Miocene, climate envelope modeling, and phylogenetic comparative methods provides a geographically and temporally explicit species distribution model of Sceloporus-suitable habitat through time. We provide evidence to support the historic biogeographic hypothesis of Sceloporus diversification in warm North American deserts and suggest a relatively recent Sceloporus invasion into Mexico around 6 Ma. We use a physiological model to map extinction risk. We suggest that the number of hours of restriction to a thermal refuge limited Sceloporus from inhabiting Mexico until the climate cooled enough to provide suitable habitat at approximately 6 Ma. If the future climate returns to the hotter climates of the past, Mexico, the place of highest modern Sceloporus richness, will no longer provide suitable habitats for Sceloporus to survive and reproduce.

Climat du passé (400000 ans) : des temps géologiques à la dérive actuellePast climate (the last 400 ka): from geological times to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jouzel, Jean

2003-06-01

Studies of past climate have, over the last 15 years, provided a wealth of information directly relevant to its evolution in the future. These results include, in particular, the discovery of a link between greenhouse gases and climate in the past and the characterization of rapid climate changes. They are, for example, based on the analysis of deep ice cores such as the one drilled at the Vostok site, which allows us to describe the evolution of the Antarctic climate and of the atmospheric composition over more than 400 thousands years (kyr). This period is also now better and better documented from the analysis of oceanic and continental records. Through examples based on recent studies, in which French teams are deeply involved, we will illustrate the most important results obtained from the analysis of polar ice cores, deep-sea cores and continental archives. To cite this article: J. Jouzel, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).

Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, L. T. X., III

2015-12-01

In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.

Arctic systems in the Quaternary: Ecological collision, faunal mosaics and the consequences of wobbling climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate oscillations and episodic or recurrent processes interact with evolution, ecology and biogeography determining the structure and complex mosaic that is the biosphere. Parasites and parasite-host assemblages, within an expansive environmental matrix determined by climate, are key components...

Martian stable isotopes: volatile evolution, climate change and exobiological implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jakosky, B. M.

1999-01-01

Measurements of the ratios of stable isotopes in the martian atmosphere and crust provide fundamental information about the evolution of the martian volatile and climate system. Current best estimates of the isotope ratios indicate that there has been substantial loss of gases to space and exchange of gases between the atmosphere and the crust throughout geologic time; exchange may have occurred through circulation of water in hydrothermal systems. Processes of volatile evolution and exchange will fractionate the isotopes in a manner that complicates the possible interpretation of isotopic data in terms of any fractionation that may have been caused by martian biota, and must be understood first. Key measurements are suggested that will enhance our understanding of the non-biological fractionation of the isotopes and of the evolution of the martian volatile system.

Yinong Sun | NREL

Science.gov Websites

integration Impacts of climate change on energy system evolution Energy policy analysis Education M.E.M. in . Electric Sector Climate Impacts. International Energy Workshop, Maryland. View all NREL publications for

Contrasting effects of winter and summer climate on alpine timberline evolution in monsoon-dominated East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ying; Liu, Hongyan; Wang, Hongya; Piao, Shilong; Yin, Yi; Ciais, Philippe; Wu, Xiuchen; Luo, Yao; Zhang, Caina; Song, Yaqiong; Gao, Yishen; Qiu, Anan

2017-08-01

Alpine timberline is particularly sensitive to global climate change, with the danger of losing essential ecosystem services in high elevational regions. Its evolution is generally linked to annual average thermal regimes, and is regarded as an indicator of climate warming. However, the effect of uneven seasonal climate change stressed by the Hijioka et al. (2014) on alpine timberline dynamics in terms of both position migration and species composition remains unclear. Here, we documented approximately 6000 years of postglacial alpine timberline evolution on Mt. Tabai in the monsoon-dominated East Asian subtropical-temperate transition. We analyzed three high-resolution lacustrine sediment sequences located below, within, and above the current alpine timberline, an ecotone between the forest line and treeline, respectively. The timberline position appears to have varied coincidently with the temperature effect of cold East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), implying that enhanced EAWM shortened the duration of the growing season and reduced forest survival at the alpine timberline. Unlike position migration, however, timberline species composition depends on summer precipitation. We found that drought-tolerant herb and shrub species were much more sensitive to variations in the water-bearing East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) than mesophytic trees at the alpine timberline. Our results suggest that prediction of future timberline dynamics should consider uneven seasonal climate changes.

Devon Ice cap's future: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling via surface mass balance modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodehacke, C. B.; Mottram, R.; Boberg, F.

2017-12-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we various boundary conditions, ranging from ERA-Interim reanalysis data via global climate model high resolution (5km) output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, to determine the surface mass balance of the Devon ice cap. These SMB estimates are used to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

The asymmetric evolution of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera. Tectonic inheritance or climatic forcing? New evidence from thermochronology and sedimentology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Arias, Juan Carlos; Mora, Andrés; Rubiano, Jorge; Duddy, Ian; Parra, Mauricio; Moreno, Nestor; Stockli, Daniel; Casallas, Wilson

2012-11-01

New thermochronological data, facies, paleocurrents and provenance allow us to refine the chronology of deformation in the central segment of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera. Based on a new extensive AFT dataset, we document the spatial evolution of active deformation, from the axial zone of the Eastern Cordillera at about 50 Ma in to active growth of the frontal thin skinned structures in Late Miocene time. Paleocurrents allow us to push backwards into the Middle to Early Late-Miocene the emergence of the easternmost frontal thrust; whereas careful assessment of exposure gates tied to AFT data enable to refine the unroofing history for Eocene to Miocene times. Based on that, we produced a kinematically restored cross section with higher resolution than previous assessments. Using these datasets, we compare the evolution of the central segment of the Eastern Cordillera in this region with the evolution of adjacent areas in the context of climatic forcing of orogenic evolution. We find that in this region and, in the Eastern Cordillera in general, tectonic inheritance and transpression exert an initial dominant control on the initial orogen asymmetry, which is later enhanced due to an orographically-focused erosion. We therefore suggest that it is not climate alone the factor controlling orogenic asymmetry in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of streamflow under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We utilize two techniques for correcting biases in the climate model output: quantile mapping and a new method, frequency bias correction. The FBC method matches the frequencies between observed and GCM-RCM data. In this way, it can be used to correct for all time scales, which is a known limitation of quantile mapping. A novel approach for the evaluation of the climate simulations and bias correction methods was then applied. Streamflow can be thought of as the "great integrator" of uncertainties. The ability, or the lack thereof, to correctly simulate streamflow is a way to assess the realism of the bias-corrected climate simulations. Long-term monthly mean as well as high and low flow metrics are used to evaluate the realism of the simulations under current climate and to gauge the impacts of climate change on streamflow. Preliminary results show that under present climate, calibration of the hydrological model comprises of a much smaller band of uncertainty in the modeling chain as compared to the bias correction of the GCM-RCMs. Therefore, for future time periods, we expect the bias correction of climate model data to have a greater influence on projected changes in streamflow than the calibration of the hydrological model.

Tectonic and climatic control on evolution of rift lakes in the Central Kenya Rift, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergner, A. G. N.; Strecker, M. R.; Trauth, M. H.; Deino, A.; Gasse, F.; Blisniuk, P.; Dühnforth, M.

2009-12-01

The long-term histories of the neighboring Nakuru-Elmenteita and Naivasha lake basins in the Central Kenya Rift illustrate the relative importance of tectonic versus climatic effects on rift-lake evolution and the formation of disparate sedimentary environments. Although modern climate conditions in the Central Kenya Rift are very similar for these basins, hydrology and hydrochemistry of present-day lakes Nakuru, Elmenteita and Naivasha contrast dramatically due to tectonically controlled differences in basin geometries, catchment size, and fluvial processes. In this study, we use eighteen 14C and 40Ar/ 39Ar dated fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary sections to unravel the spatiotemporal evolution of the lake basins in response to tectonic and climatic influences. We reconstruct paleoclimatic and ecological trends recorded in these basins based on fossil diatom assemblages and geologic field mapping. Our study shows a tendency towards increasing alkalinity and shrinkage of water bodies in both lake basins during the last million years. Ongoing volcano-tectonic segmentation of the lake basins, as well as reorganization of upstream drainage networks have led to contrasting hydrologic regimes with adjacent alkaline and freshwater conditions. During extreme wet periods in the past, such as during the early Holocene climate optimum, lake levels were high and all basins evolved toward freshwater systems. During drier periods some of these lakes revert back to alkaline conditions, while others maintain freshwater characteristics. Our results have important implications for the use and interpretation of lake sediment as climate archives in tectonically active regions and emphasize the need to deconvolve lacustrine records with respect to tectonics versus climatic forcing mechanisms.

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid-adapted marsupial mice, the Sminthopsini.

PubMed

García-Navas, Vicente; Westerman, Michael

2018-05-28

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low-moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Understanding Differences in the Response to Composition Change as Simulated by CCMVal Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Strahan, Susan E.; Oman, Luke D.

2012-01-01

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) have a common conceptual basis. Differences in implementation lead to differences in the stratospheric ozone response to changes in composition and climate. Although evaluation by CCMVal-2 identified strengths and weaknesses of participant models, the evaluation results were not used to discriminate among projections for future ozone evolution, at least in part because the overall diagnostic evaluation did not cleanly relate to the differences in CCM response. Here we use a subset of CCMVal diagnostics and additional analysis to understand the differences in response. In the upper stratosphere, differences in simulated temperature and total odd nitrogen prior to increases in chlorine loading explain the large differences in CCM sensitivity. In the lower atmosphere, there are two principle contributions to differences in CCM sensitivity to chlorine and climate change. First, differences in the lower stratospheric ClO affect simulated sensitivity to chlorine. CCMs with best transport performance match NDACC column HCl measurements at a broad range of latitudes. Other CCMs disagree with observations due to differences in total inorganic chlorine, partitioning between HCl and ClONO2, or both. Differences in ClONO2 are directly related to differences in simulated ClO. Second, although all CCMs predict increased tropical upwelling, the rate of increase varies and contributes to differences in tropical ozone and the 60N-60S column average.

Climate variability and the energetic pathways of evolution: the origin of endothermy in mammals and birds.

PubMed

Portner, Hans O

2004-01-01

Large-scale climate oscillations in earth's history have influenced the directions of evolution, last but not least, through mass extinction events. This analysis tries to identify some unifying forces behind the course of evolution that favored an increase in organismic complexity and performance, paralleled by an increase in energy turnover, and finally led to endothermy. The analysis builds on the recent concept of oxygen-limited thermal tolerance and on the hypothesis that unifying principles exist in the temperature-dependent biochemical design of the eukaryotic cell in animals. The comparison of extant water-breathing and air-breathing animal species from various climates provides a cause-and-effect understanding of the trade-offs and constraints in thermal adaptation and their energetic consequences. It is hypothesized that the high costs of functional adaptation to fluctuating temperatures, especially in the cold (cold eurythermy), cause an increase in energy turnover and, at the same time, mobility and agility. These costs are associated with elevated mitochondrial capacities at minimized levels of activation enthalpies for proton leakage. Cold eurythermy is seen as a precondition for the survival of evolutionary crises elicited by repeated cooling events during extreme climate fluctuations. The costs of cold eurythermy appear as the single most important reason why metazoan evolution led to life forms with high energy turnover. They also explain why dinosaurs were able to live in subpolar climates. Finally, they give insight into the pathways, benefits, and trade-offs involved in the evolution of constant, elevated body temperature maintained by endothermy. Eurythermy, which encompasses cold tolerance, is thus hypothesized to be the "missing link" between ectothermy and endothermy. Body temperatures between 32 degrees and 42 degrees C in mammals and birds then result from trade-offs between the limiting capacities of ventilation and circulation and the evolutionary trend to maximize performance at the warm end of the thermal tolerance window.

A bottom-up robust optimization framework for identifying river basin development pathways under deep climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic nonstationarity due to climate change poses challenges for long-term water infrastructure planning in river basin systems. While designing strategies that are flexible or adaptive hold intuitive appeal, development of well-performing strategies requires rigorous quantitative analysis that address uncertainties directly while making the best use of scientific information on the expected evolution of future climate. Multi-stage robust optimization (RO) offers a potentially effective and efficient technique for addressing the problem of staged basin-level planning under climate change, however the necessity of assigning probabilities to future climate states or scenarios is an obstacle to implementation, given that methods to reliably assign probabilities to future climate states are not well developed. We present a method that overcomes this challenge by creating a bottom-up RO-based framework that decreases the dependency on probability distributions of future climate and rather employs them after optimization to aid selection amongst competing alternatives. The iterative process yields a vector of `optimal' decision pathways each under the associated set of probabilistic assumptions. In the final phase, the vector of optimal decision pathways is evaluated to identify the solutions that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities and are most-likely conditional on the climate information. The framework is illustrated for the planning of new dam and hydro-agricultural expansions projects in the Niger River Basin over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060.

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change.

PubMed

Lustenhouwer, Nicky; Wilschut, Rutger A; Williams, Jennifer L; van der Putten, Wim H; Levine, Jonathan M

2018-02-01

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species' current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species' ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD-sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rapid adaptation to climate facilitates range expansion of an invasive plant.

PubMed

Colautti, Robert I; Barrett, Spencer C H

2013-10-18

Adaptation to climate, evolving over contemporary time scales, could facilitate rapid range expansion across environmental gradients. Here, we examine local adaptation along a climatic gradient in the North American invasive plant Lythrum salicaria. We show that the evolution of earlier flowering is adaptive at the northern invasion front where it increases fitness as much as, or more than, the effects of enemy release and the evolution of increased competitive ability. However, early flowering decreases investment in vegetative growth, which reduces fitness by a factor of 3 in southern environments where the North American invasion commenced. Our results demonstrate that local adaptation can evolve quickly during range expansion, overcoming environmental constraints on propagule production.

A laboratory experiment simulating the dynamics of topographic relief: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crave, A.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.; Bonnet, S.; Laguionie, P.

2002-12-01

Theoretical analysis and numerical models of landscape evolution have advanced several scenarios for the long-term evolution of terrestrial topography. These scenarios require quantitative evaluation. Analyses of topography, sediment fluxes, and the physical mechanisms of erosion and sediment transport can provide some constraints on the range of plausible models. But in natural systems the boundary conditions (tectonic uplift, climate, base level) are often not well constrained and the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, climate, vegetation, and prevalent processes commonly confounds attempts at extrapolation of observations to longer timescales. In the laboratory, boundary conditions are known and heterogeneity and complexity can be controlled. An experimental approach can thus provide valuable constraints on the dynamics of geomorphic systems, provided that (1) the elementary processes are well calibrated and (2) the topography and sediment fluxes are sufficiently well documented. We have built an experimental setup of decimeter scale that is designed to develop a complete drainage network by the growth and propagation of erosion instabilities in response to tectonic and climatic perturbations. Uplift and precipitation rates can be changed over an order of magnitude. Telemetric lasers and 3D stereo-photography allow the precise quantification of the topographic evolution of the experimental surface. In order to calibrate the principal processes of erosion and transport we have used three approaches: (1) theoretical derivation of erosion laws deduced from the geometrical properties of experimental surfaces at steady-state under different rates of tectonic uplift; (2) comparison of the experimental transient dynamics with a numerical simulation model to test the validity of the predicted erosion laws; and (3) detailed analysis of particle detachment and transport in a millimeter sheet flow on a two-meter long flume under precisely controlled water discharge, slope and flow width. The analogy with real geomorphic systems is limited by the imperfect downscaling in both time and space of the experiments. However, these simple experiments have allowed us to probe (1) the importance of a threshold for particle mobilization to the relationship between steady-state elevation and uplift rate, (2) the role of initial drainage network organization in the transient dynamics of tectonically perturbed systems and (3) the sediment flux dynamics of climatically perturbed systems.

Geography and Similarity of Regional Cuisines in China

PubMed Central

Zhu, Yu-Xiao; Huang, Junming; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhang, Qian-Ming; Zhou, Tao; Ahn, Yong-Yeol

2013-01-01

Food occupies a central position in every culture and it is therefore of great interest to understand the evolution of food culture. The advent of the World Wide Web and online recipe repositories have begun to provide unprecedented opportunities for data-driven, quantitative study of food culture. Here we harness an online database documenting recipes from various Chinese regional cuisines and investigate the similarity of regional cuisines in terms of geography and climate. We find that geographical proximity, rather than climate proximity, is a crucial factor that determines the similarity of regional cuisines. We develop a model of regional cuisine evolution that provides helpful clues for understanding the evolution of cuisines and cultures. PMID:24260166

Geography and similarity of regional cuisines in China.

PubMed

Zhu, Yu-Xiao; Huang, Junming; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhang, Qian-Ming; Zhou, Tao; Ahn, Yong-Yeol

2013-01-01

Food occupies a central position in every culture and it is therefore of great interest to understand the evolution of food culture. The advent of the World Wide Web and online recipe repositories have begun to provide unprecedented opportunities for data-driven, quantitative study of food culture. Here we harness an online database documenting recipes from various Chinese regional cuisines and investigate the similarity of regional cuisines in terms of geography and climate. We find that geographical proximity, rather than climate proximity, is a crucial factor that determines the similarity of regional cuisines. We develop a model of regional cuisine evolution that provides helpful clues for understanding the evolution of cuisines and cultures.

Debris Flow Process and Climate Controls on Steepland Valley Form and Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struble, W.; Roering, J. J.

2017-12-01

In unglaciated mountain ranges, steepland bedrock valleys often dominate relief structure and dictate landscape response to perturbations in tectonics or climate; drainage divides have been shown to be dynamic and drainage capture is common. Landscape evolution models often use the stream power model to simulate morphologic changes, but steepland valley networks exhibit trends that deviate from predictions of this model. The prevalence of debris flows in steep channels has motivated approaches that account for commonly observed curvature of slope-area data at small drainage areas. Debris flow deposits correspond with observed curvature in slope-area data, wherein slope increases slowly as drainage area decreases; debris flow incision is implied upstream of deposits. In addition, shallow landslides and in-channel sediment entrainment in humid and arid regions, respectively, have been identified as likely debris flow triggering mechanisms, but the extent to which they set the slope of steep channels is unclear. While an untested model exists for humid landscape debris flows, field observations and models are lacking for regions with lower mean annual precipitation. The Oregon Coastal Ranges are an ideal humid setting for observing how shallow landslide-initiated debris flows abrade channel beds and/or drive exposure-driven weathering. Preliminary field observations in the Lost River Range and the eastern Sierra Nevada - semi-arid and unglaciated environments - suggest that debris flows are pervasive in steep reaches. Evidence for fluvial incision is lacking and the presence of downstream debris flow deposits and a curved morphologic signature in slope-area space suggests stream power models are insufficient for predicting and interpreting landscape dynamics. Investigation of debris flow processes in both humid and arid sites such as these seeks to identify the linkage between sediment transport and the characteristic form of steepland valleys. Bedrock weathering, fracture density, recurrence interval, bulking, and grain size may determine process-form linkages in humid and arid settings. Evaluation of debris flow processes in sites of varying climate presents the opportunity to quantify the role of debris flow incision in the evolution of steepland valleys and improve landscape evolution models.

Evolution of a Mediterranean coastal zone: human impacts on the marine environment of Cape Creus.

PubMed

Lloret, Josep; Riera, Victòria

2008-12-01

This study presents an integrated analysis of the evolution of the marine environment and the human uses in Cape Creus, a Mediterranean coastal area where intense commercial fisheries and recreational uses have coexisted over the last fifty years. The investigation synthesizes the documented impacts of human activities on the marine environment of Cap de Creus and integrates them with new data. In particular, the evolution of vulnerable, exploited species is used to evaluate the fishing impacts. The effects of area protection through the establishment of a marine reserve in the late 1990s and the potential climate change impacts are also considered. The evolution of the human uses is marked by the increasing socioeconomic importance of recreational activities (which affect species and habitats) in detriment to artisanal and red coral fisheries (which principally affect at a species level). Overall, populations of sedentary, vulnerable exploited species, hard sessile benthic invertebrates, and ecologically fragile habitats, such as seagrass meadows, the coralligenous and infralittoral algal assemblages have been the most negatively impacted by anthropogenic activities. Albeit human uses currently constitute the largest negative impact on the marine environment of Cap de Creus, climate change is emerging as a key factor that could have considerable implications for the marine environment and tourism activities. The establishment of the marine reserve appears to have had little socioeconomic impact, but there is some evidence that it had some positive biological effects on sedentary, littoral fishes. Results demonstrate that the declaration of a marine reserve alone does not guarantee the sustainability of marine resources and habitats but should be accompanied with an integrated coastal management plan.

Can Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) be used to reconstruct palaeo-climate and sea-level histories?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

2011-12-01

Reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions over long time periods is notoriously difficult, especially where there are limited or no proxy records from which to extract data. Application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) for palaeo-environmental reconstruction involves hindcast modeling, in which simulation scenarios are configured with specific model variables and parameters chosen to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. In this form of modeling, the environmental time series utilized are considered credible when modeled and observed landscape metrics converge. Herein we account for the uncertainties involved in evaluating the degree to which the model simulations and observations converge using Monte Carlo analysis of reduced complexity `metamodels'. The technique is applied to a case study focused on a specific set of gullies found on the southwest coast of the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor controlling the Holocene evolution of these coastal gullies is the balance between rates of sea-cliff retreat (driven by sea-level rise) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (driven by the rate of runoff). We simulate these processes using a version of the GOLEM model that has been modified to represent sea-cliff retreat. A Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of driving conditions to be modeled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the range of bedrock erodibility (0.03 to 0.04 m0.2 a-1) and rate of sea-level change (0.005 to 0.0059 m a-1) is tightly constrained, modeled gully forms conform closely to those observed in reality, enabling a suite of climate and sea-level change scenarios which plausibly explain the Holocene evolution of the Isle of Wight gullies to be identified.

Evolution of a Mediterranean Coastal Zone: Human Impacts on the Marine Environment of Cape Creus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloret, Josep; Riera, Victòria

2008-12-01

This study presents an integrated analysis of the evolution of the marine environment and the human uses in Cape Creus, a Mediterranean coastal area where intense commercial fisheries and recreational uses have coexisted over the last fifty years. The investigation synthesizes the documented impacts of human activities on the marine environment of Cap de Creus and integrates them with new data. In particular, the evolution of vulnerable, exploited species is used to evaluate the fishing impacts. The effects of area protection through the establishment of a marine reserve in the late 1990s and the potential climate change impacts are also considered. The evolution of the human uses is marked by the increasing socioeconomic importance of recreational activities (which affect species and habitats) in detriment to artisanal and red coral fisheries (which principally affect at a species level). Overall, populations of sedentary, vulnerable exploited species, hard sessile benthic invertebrates, and ecologically fragile habitats, such as seagrass meadows, the coralligenous and infralittoral algal assemblages have been the most negatively impacted by anthropogenic activities. Albeit human uses currently constitute the largest negative impact on the marine environment of Cap de Creus, climate change is emerging as a key factor that could have considerable implications for the marine environment and tourism activities. The establishment of the marine reserve appears to have had little socioeconomic impact, but there is some evidence that it had some positive biological effects on sedentary, littoral fishes. Results demonstrate that the declaration of a marine reserve alone does not guarantee the sustainability of marine resources and habitats but should be accompanied with an integrated coastal management plan.

Climate Change and Evolution of Vector Associated Pathogens: Potential to Increase or Decrease Duration and Intensity of Epidemics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Population growth, frontier agricultural expansion, and urbanization transform the landscape and the surrounding ecosystem, affecting climate, diseases, and interactions between animals and humans. Additionally, the Earth’s oceans serve as the engine of the Earth’s climate and ecosystems, and they a...

Role of volcanism in climate and evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Axelrod, D.I.

1981-01-01

Several major episodes of Tertiary explosive volcanism coincided with sharply lowered temperature as inferred from oxygen-isotope composition of foraminiferal tests in deep-sea cores. At these times, fossil floras in the western interior recorded significant changes. Reductions in taxa that required warmth occurred early in the Paleogene. Later, taxa that demand ample summer rain were reduced during a progressive change reflecting growth of the subtropic high. Other ecosystem changes that appear to have responded to volcanically induced climatic modifications include tachytely in Equidae (12 to 10 m.y. B.P.), rapid evolution of grasses (7 to 5 m.y. B.P.), evolution of marine mammals,more » and plankton flucuations. Although Lake Cretaceous extinctions commenced as epeiric seas retreated, the pulses of sharply lowered temperature induced by explosive volcanism, together with widespread falls of volcanic ash, may have led to extinction of dinosaurs, ammonites, cycadeoids, and other Cretaceous taxa. earlier, as Pangaea was assembled, Permian extinctions resulted not only from the elimination of oceans, epeiric seas, and shorelines, and the spread of more-continental climates, bu also from the climatic effects of major pulses of global volcanism and Gondwana glaciation.« less

Evaluation of a chemical proxy for fire intensity: A potential tool for studying fire-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hockaday, W. C.; White, J. D.; Von Bargen, J.; Yao, J.

2015-12-01

The legacy of wildfire is recorded in the geologic record, due to the stability of charcoal. Well-preserved charcoal is abundant in paleo-soils and sediments, documenting paleo-fires affecting even the earliest land plants. The dominant role of fire in shaping the biosphere is evidenced by some 40% of the land surface which is occupied by fire-prone and fire-adapted biomes: boreal forest, savanna, grassland, and Mediterranean shrubland. While fire ecologists appreciate the role that fire played in the evolution of these ecosystems, and climate scientists appreciate the role of these biomes in the regulation of Earth's climate, our understanding of the system of fire-vegetation-climate feedbacks is poor. This knowledge gap exists because we lack tools for evaluating change in fire regimes of the past for which climate proxy records exist. Fire regime is a function of fire frequency and fire intensity. Although fire frequency estimates are available from laminated sediment and tree ring records, tools for estimating paleo-fire intensity are lacking. We have recently developed a chemical proxy for fire intensity that is based upon the molecular structure of charcoal, assessed using solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. The molecular dimensions of aromatic domains in charcoal increased linearly (R2 = 0.9) with the intensity (temperature x duration) of heating. Our initial field-based validation in prescribed fires shows a promising correlation (R2 = 0.7) between the proxy-based estimates and thermistor-based measurements of fire intensity. This presentation will discuss the competencies and potential limitations of this novel proxy.

The Venera-D Mission Concept: Evaluation by a Joint Science Definition Team of a Means for the Comprehensive Scientific Exploration of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senske, D.; Zasova, L. V.; Economou, T.; Eismont, N.; Esposito, L. W.; Gerasimov, M.; Ignatiev, N. I.; Ivanov, M.; Jessup, K. L.; Korablev, O.; Tibor, K.; Limaye, S. S.; Martynov, A.; Ocampo, A.

2016-12-01

Located in the same part of the solar system and formed out of the same protoplanetary material, Venus is Earth's twin. Although these siblings have nearly the same size, mass, and density, the climate of Venus, fueled by a massive CO2 atmosphere has an enormous greenhouse effect with a surface pressure of 90 atm. and a temperature of 470°C. Shrouded in clouds of sulfuric acid, the surface lacks water and has been sculpted by volcanism and deformed by faulting and folding forming rifts and belts of mountains. The lack of an intrinsic magnetic field suggests the planet's interior structure may be different than that of the earth. The study of Venus will aid in better understanding our own world and the possible future evolution of our climate. In particular, the instability of our climate and the increase in amount of greenhouse gases-can our climate be slowly going in Venus' direction? Despite the advancement in understanding achieved from previous and ongoing missions, the key questions concerning the origin and evolution of Venus and its climate cannot be solved by observations from orbit alone. Direct measurements in the atmosphere and on the surface are required. In this regard, a Joint Science Definition Team (JSDT) chartered by NASA and IKI/Roscosmos has been studying a concept for the comprehensive investigation of Venus that would consist of an orbiter (>3 yr. of operation) and a lander (2 hrs. on the surface). The scientific goals of the concept are tied closely to the key objectives established by VEXAG and the NASA Planetary Decadal Survey and include: investigation of the thermal structure and chemical composition of the atmosphere and clouds, abundances and isotopic ratios of the light and noble gases; study of the thermal balance, dynamics, and super-rotation of the atmosphere; determination of the surface mineralogy and elemental composition including key radioactive isotopes; study of potential current volcanic and electrical activity; and study of the plasma environment, magnetosphere, and atmospheric escape. The JSDT is also evaluating technology needs and the potential for innovative flight element augmentations including, free flying aerial platforms, sub-satellites, and drop sondes. The status of the JSDT activity and the context of the mission within past and current Venus exploration will be reported.

Landscape co-evolution and river discharge.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Ype; Temme, Arnaud

2015-04-01

Fresh water is crucial for society and ecosystems. However, our ability to secure fresh water resources under climatic and anthropogenic change is impaired by the complexity of interactions between human society, ecosystems, soils, and topography. These interactions cause landscape properties to co-evolve, continuously changing the flow paths of water through the landscape. These co-evolution driven flow path changes and their effect on river runoff are, to-date, poorly understood. In this presentation we introduce a spatially distributed landscape evolution model that incorporates growing vegetation and its effect on evapotranspiration, interception, infiltration, soil permeability, groundwater-surface water exchange and erosion. This landscape scale (10km2) model is calibrated to evolve towards well known empirical organising principles such as the Budyko curve and Hacks law under different climate conditions. To understand how positive and negative feedbacks within the model structure form complex landscape patterns of forests and peat bogs that resemble observed landscapes under humid and boreal climates, we analysed the effects of individual processes on the spatial distribution of vegetation and river peak and mean flows. Our results show that especially river peak flows and droughts decrease with increasing evolution of the landscape, which is a result that has direct implications for flood management.

Evolution, biogeography, and systematics of Puriana: evolution and speciation in Ostracoda, III.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.

1987-01-01

Three types of geographic isolation - land barriers, deep water barriers, and climatic barriers - resulted in three distinct evolutionary responses in Neogene and Quaternary species of the epineritic ostracode genus Puriana. Through systematic, paleobiogeographic, and morphologic study of several hundred fossil and Recent populations from the eastern Pacific, western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean, the phylogeny of the genus and the geography of speciation events were determined. Isolation of large populations by the Isthumus of Panama during the Pliocene did not lead to lineage splitting in species known to have existed before the Isthmus formed. Conversely, the establishment of small isolated populations on Caribbean islands by passive dispersal mechanisms frequently led to the evolution of new species or subspecies. Climatic changes along the southeastern United States during the Pliocene also catalyzed possible parapatric speciation as populations that immigrated to the northeastern periphery of the genus' range split to form new species. The results provide evidence that evolutionary models describing the influence of abiotic events on patterns of evolution and speciation can be tested using properly selected tectonic and climatic events and fossil groups amenable to species-level analysis. Two new species, P. bajaensis and P. paikensis, are described. -Author

Risky business: The impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Ariane; Kageyama, Masa; Latombe, Guilllaume; Fasel, Marc; Vrac, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; James, Patrick M. A.

2017-05-01

The extent to which climate change has affected the course of human evolution is an enduring question. The ability to maintain spatially extensive social networks and a fluid social structure allows human foragers to ;map onto; the landscape, mitigating the impact of ecological risk and conferring resilience. But what are the limits of resilience and to which environmental variables are foraging populations sensitive? We address this question by testing the impact of a suite of environmental variables, including climate variability, on the distribution of human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate variability affects the distribution of plant and animal resources unpredictably, creating an element of risk for foragers for whom mobility comes at a cost. We produce a model of habitat suitability that allows us to generate predictions about the probable distribution of human populations and discuss the implications of these predictions for the structure of human populations and their social and cultural evolution during the LGM.

Evaluation and comparison of different RCMs simulations of the Mediterranean climate: a view on the impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, Gérémy; Vrac, Mathieu; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Somot, Samuel; Li, Laurent

2015-04-01

As regularly stated by numerous authors, the Mediterranean climate is considered as one major climate 'hot spot'. At least, three reasons may explain this statement. First, this region is known for being regularly affected by extreme hydro-meteorological events (heavy precipitation and flash-floods during the autumn season; droughts and heat waves during spring and summer). Second, the vulnerability of populations in regard of these extreme events is expected to increase during the XXIst century (at least due to the projected population growth in this region). At last, Global Circulation Models project that this regional climate will be highly sensitive to climate change. Moreover, global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and thus to increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In order to propose adaptation strategies, the robust estimation of the future evolution of the Mediterranean climate and the associated extreme hydro-meteorological events (in terms of intensity/frequency) is of great relevance. However, these projections are characterized by large uncertainties. Many components of the simulation chain can explain these large uncertainties : (i) uncertainties concerning the emission scenario; (ii) climate model simulations suffer of parametrization errors and uncertainties concerning the initial state of the climate; and (iii) the additional uncertainties given by the (dynamical or statistical) downscaling techniques and the impact model. Narrowing (as fine as possible) these uncertainties is a major challenge of the actual climate research. One way for that is to reduce the uncertainties associated with each component. In this study, we are interested in evaluating the potential improvement of : (i) coupled RCM simulations (with the Mediterranean Sea) in comparison with atmosphere only (stand-alone) RCM simulations and (ii) RCM simulations at a finer resolution in comparison with larger resolution. For that, three different RCMs (WRF, ALADIN, LMDZ4) were run, forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses, within the MED-CORDEX experiment. For each RCM, different versions (coupled/stand-alone, high/low resolution) were realized. A large set of scores was developed and applied in order to evaluate the performances of these different RCMs simulations. These scores were applied for three variables (daily precipitation amount, mean daily air temperature and the dry spell lengths). A particular attention was given to the RCM capability to reproduce the seasonal and spatial pattern of extreme statistics. Results show that the differences between coupled and stand-alone RCMs are localized very near the Mediterranean sea and that the model resolution has a slight impact on the scores obtained. Globally, the main differences between the RCM simulations come from the RCM used. Keywords: Mediterranean climate, extreme hydro-meteorological events, RCM simulations, evaluation of climate simulations

Climate signal detected in sub-fossil and living oak trees data. An analysis of signal frequency components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantin, Nechita; Francisca, Chiriloaei; Maria, Radoane; Ionel, Popa; Nicoae, Radoane

2016-04-01

This study is focused on analysis the frequency components of the signal detected in living and sub-fossil tree ring series from different time periods. The investigation is oriented to analyze signal frequency components (low and high) of the two categories of trees. The interpretation technique of tree ring width is the instrument most often used to elaborate past climatic reconstructions. The annual resolution, but also, the high capacity of trees to accumulate climatic information are attributes which confer to palaeo-environmental reconstructions the biggest credibility. The main objective of the study refers to the evaluation of climatic signal characteristics, both present day climate and palaeo-climate (last 7000 years BP). Modern dendrochronological methods were applied on 350 samples of sub-fossil trees and 400 living trees. The subfossil trunks were sampled from different fluvial environments (Siret, Suceava, Moldova). Their age was determined using radiocarbon, varying from under 100 years to almost 7000 years BP. The subfossil tree species investigated were Quercus, Alnus, Ulmus. Considering living trees, these were identified on eastern part of Romania, in different actual physico-geographical conditions. The studied living tree species consisted in Quercus species (robur and petraea). Each site was investigated regarding stress factors of the sampled tree. The working methods were applied to the total wood series, both late and early, to detect intra-annual level climate information. Each series has been tested to separate individual trees with climatic signal of other trees with different signals (noises determined by competition between individuals or site stress, or anthropic impact). Comparing dendrochronological series (sub-fossil and living trees) we want to identify what significant causes determined the difference in the signal frequencies. Especially, the human interventions registered in the last 2 centuries will be evaluated by these different types of signal in the tree rings. In order to evaluate this aspect we used time series which were standardized to avoid the non-climatic signal. This type of investigation is the first of its kind to Eastern Europe, an area so large (over 50 000 km2) and a high number of sites and individuals studied (about 1000). The obtained results will help us to understand the palaeo-environment evolution in the last Holocene and when human intervention has been really significant.

Sink- or Source-driven Phanerozoic carbon cycle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godderis, Y.; Donnadieu, Y.; Maffre, P.; Carretier, S.

2017-12-01

The Phanerozoic evolution of the atmospheric CO2 level is controlled by the fluxes entering or leaving the exospheric system. Those fluxes (including continental weathering, magmatic degassing, organic carbon burial, oxidation of sedimentary organic carbon) are intertwined, and their relative importance in driving the global carbon cycle evolution may have fluctuated through time. Deciphering the causes of the Phanerozoic climate evolution thus requires a holistic and quantitative approach. Here we focus on the role played by the paleogeographic configuration on the efficiency of the CO2 sink by continental silicate weathering, and on the impact of the magmatic degassing of CO2. We use the spatially resolved numerical model GEOCLIM (geoclimmodel.worpress.com) to compute the response of the silicate weathering and atmospheric CO2 to continental drift for 22 time slices of the Phanerozoic. Regarding the CO2 released by the magmatic activity, we reconstruct several Phanerozoic histories of this flux, based on published indexes. We calculate the CO2 evolution for each degassing scenario, and accounting for the paleogeographic setting. We show that the paleogeographic setting is a main driver of the climate from 540 Ma to about the beginning of the Jurassic. Regarding the role of the magmatic degassing, the various reconstructions do not converge towards a single signal, and thus introduce large uncertainties in the calculated CO2 level over time. Nevertheless, the continental dispersion, which prevails since the Jurassic, promotes the CO2 consumption by weathering and forces atmospheric CO2 to stay low. Warm climates of the "middle" Cretaceous and early Cenozoic require enhanced CO2 degassing by magmatic activity. In summary, the Phanerozoic climate evolution can be hardly assigned to a single process, but is the result of complex and intertwined processes.

A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

Treesearch

Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

2006-01-01

SnowModel is a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system designed for application in landscapes, climates, and conditions where snow occurs. It is an aggregation of four submodels: MicroMet defines meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowPack simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D...

Coastal tourism and climate change in Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henia, Latifa; Hlaoui, Zouhaier; Alouane, Tahar

2014-05-01

Tunisia is a major tourist destination on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. The tourism sector occupies an important place in the Tunisian economy with 816 hotels, 229,873 beds and a more than six million tourists at the end of the first decade of the 21th century, i.e. , more than half of the population. It offers a large number of direct and indirect jobs: One out of five people work in the tourism sector. The 1960s tourism boom was caused by a number of factors including long days of sunshine, 1,300 km of sandy coast, and a location close to Europe. Tunisian tourism is fundamentally based on two natural determinants: the sun and the sea. The coastline accounts for 95% of tourism investments and functional beds. The high season extends from April to October and it records 73% of nonresident tourists. This results in a homogenous growth of the "product" and its "consumers". This standardization is an important factor in the vulnerability of the Tunisian tourism to climate change. Global warming may affect the comfort level of the swimming season as well as its structure. An estimation of air and water temperature evolution near the Tunisian coasts was conducted under the CLIM-RUN project "Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean Region: Responding to User Needs" funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7). The University of Tunis research unit "GREVACHOT", project partner in charge of the case study of Tunisian tourism, has made the study of comfort indices of the present climate. This paper presents: - The climate comfort indices for seaside tourism in Tunisia, - The approach and results of the future evolution of air and water temperatures by the Tunisian coasts, - The future evolution of climate seaside comfort indices of Tunisia as well as the evolution of the swimming season in relation to global warming.

In Situ Missions For Investigation of the Climate, Geology and Evolution of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grinspoon, David

2017-10-01

In situ Exploration of Venus has been recommended by the Decadal Study of the National Research Council. Many high priority measurements, addressing outstanding first-order, fundamental questions about current processes and evolution of Venus can only be made from in situ platforms such as entry probes, balloons or landers. These include: measuring noble gases and their isotopes to constrain origin and evolution; measuring stable isotopes to constrain the history of water and other volatiles; measuring trace gas profiles and sulfur compounds for chemical cycles and surface-atmosphere interactions, constraining the coupling of radiation, dynamics and chemistry, making visible and infrared descent images, and measuring surface and sub-surface composition. Such measurements will allow us deepen our understanding of the origin and evolution of Venus in the context of the terrestrial planets and extrasolar planets, to determine the level and style of current geological activity and to characterize the divergent climate evolution of Venus and Earth and extend our knowledge of the limits of habitability on hot terrestrial planets.

Brain size and thermoregulation during the evolution of the genus Homo.

PubMed

Naya, Daniel E; Naya, Hugo; Lessa, Enrique P

2016-01-01

Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of an energetically costly brain in the genus Homo. Some of these hypotheses are based on the correlation between climatic factors and brain size recorded for this genus during the last millions of years. In this study, we propose a complementary climatic hypothesis that is based on the mechanistic connection between temperature, thermoregulation, and size of internal organs in endothermic species. We hypothesized that global cooling during the last 3.2 my may have imposed an increased energy expenditure for thermoregulation, which in the case of hominids could represent a driver for the evolution of an expanded brain, or at least, it could imply the relaxation of a negative selection pressure acting upon this costly organ. To test this idea, here we (1) assess variation in the energetic costs of thermoregulation and brain maintenance for the last 3.2 my, and (2) evaluate the relationship between Earth temperature and brain maintenance cost for the same period, taking into account the effects of body mass and fossil age. We found that: (1) the energetic cost associated with brain enlargement represents an important fraction (between 47.5% and 82.5%) of the increase in energy needed for thermoregulation; (2) fossil age is a better predictor of brain maintenance cost than Earth temperature, suggesting that (at least) another factor correlated with time was more relevant than ambient temperature in brain size evolution; and (3) there is a significant negative correlation between the energetic cost of brain and Earth temperature, even after accounting for the effect of body mass and fossil age. Thus, our results expand the current energetic framework for the study of brain size evolution in our lineage by suggesting that a fall in Earth temperature during the last millions of years may have facilitated brain enlargement. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Thorpe, Roger S; Barlow, Axel; Malhotra, Anita; Surget-Groba, Yann

2015-03-01

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

PubMed Central

Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

2013-01-01

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

Factors Controlling Carbon Metabolism and Humification in Different Soil Agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Doni, S.; Macci, C.; Peruzzi, E.; Ceccanti, B.; Masciandaro, G.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to describe the processes that control humic carbon sequestration in soil. Three experimental sites differing in terms of management system and climate were selected: (i) Abanilla-Spain, soil treated with municipal solid wastes in Mediterranean semiarid climate; (ii) Puch-Germany, soil under intensive tillage and conventional agriculture in continental climate; and (iii) Alberese-Italy, soil under organic and conventional agriculture in Mediterranean subarid climate. The chemical-structural and biochemical soil properties at the initial sampling time and one year later were evaluated. The soils under organic (Alberese, soil cultivated with Triticum durum Desf.) and nonintensive management practices (Puch, soil cultivated with Triticum aestivum L. and Avena sativa L.) showed higher enzymatically active humic carbon, total organic carbon, humification index (B/E3s), and metabolic potential (dehydrogenase activity/water soluble carbon) if compared with conventional agriculture and plough-based tillage, respectively. In Abanilla, the application of municipal solid wastes stimulated the specific β-glucosidase activity (extracellular β-glucosidase activity/extractable humic carbon) and promoted the increase of humic substances with respect to untreated soil. The evolution of the chemical and biochemical status of the soils along a climatic gradient suggested that the adoption of certain management practices could be very promising in increasing SOC sequestration potential. PMID:25614887

Climate impact and adaptation of husbandry on the Mongolian plateau: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, L.; Cui, X.

2015-12-01

There has been an evolution in the treatment of regional aspects of climate and land use change: from a patchwork of case examples towards a more systematic coverage of regional issues at continental and sub-continental scales in the latest Intergovernmental panel on climate change, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The region of Inner Asia has long been characterised by important cultural, economic, and ecological ties that transcend international borders, including a common steppe environment, a long history of mobile pastoralism, as well as comparable experiences of socialist and postsocialist transformation. In this research, we focused on the study of the Mongolian Plateau located in eastern Inner Asia, since climate change has already had large impacts on grassland and local households. We explored how the vegetation and animal husbandry responses to climate change in comparison between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Our central question then was: how are people in different parts of Inner Mongolia and the Republic of Mongolia are experiencing and responding to climate change across a common grassland environment as a result of the differing social, economic, political, and ecological conditions within each particular state? We believe that comparative and interdisciplinary investigation offers the best prospect for the evaluation of the differing trajectories currently being followed by each Inner Asian state, and the anticipation of the likely effects on the societies and environment of the region in the future.

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

2016-01-01

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

Critical issues in trace gas biogeochemistry and global change.

PubMed

Beerling, David J; Nicholas Hewitt, C; Pyle, John A; Raven, John A

2007-07-15

The atmospheric composition of trace gases and aerosols is determined by the emission of compounds from the marine and terrestrial biospheres, anthropogenic sources and their chemistry and deposition processes. Biogenic emissions depend upon physiological processes and climate, and the atmospheric chemistry is governed by climate and feedbacks involving greenhouse gases themselves. Understanding and predicting the biogeochemistry of trace gases in past, present and future climates therefore demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating across physiology, atmospheric chemistry, physics and meteorology. Here, we highlight critical issues raised by recent findings in all of these key areas to provide a framework for better understanding the past and possible future evolution of the atmosphere. Incorporating recent experimental and observational findings, especially the influence of CO2 on trace gas emissions from marine algae and terrestrial plants, into earth system models remains a major research priority. As we move towards this goal, archives of the concentration and isotopes of N2O and CH4 from polar ice cores extending back over 650,000 years will provide a valuable benchmark for evaluating such models. In the Pre-Quaternary, synthesis of theoretical modelling with geochemical and palaeontological evidence is also uncovering the roles played by trace gases in episodes of abrupt climatic warming and ozone depletion. Finally, observations and palaeorecords across a range of timescales allow assessment of the Earth's climate sensitivity, a metric influencing our ability to decide what constitutes 'dangerous' climate change.

Innovative empirical approaches for inferring climate-warming impacts on plants in remote areas.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter

2015-02-01

The prediction of the effects of climate warming on plant communities across the globe has become a major focus of ecology, evolution and biodiversity conservation. However, many of the frequently used empirical approaches for inferring how warming affects vegetation have been criticized for decades. In addition, methods that require no electricity may be preferred because of constraints of active warming, e.g. in remote areas. Efforts to overcome the limitations of earlier methods are currently under development, but these approaches have yet to be systematically evaluated side by side. Here, an overview of the benefits and limitations of a selection of innovative empirical techniques to study temperature effects on plants is presented, with a focus on practicality in relatively remote areas without an electric power supply. I focus on methods for: ecosystem aboveground and belowground warming; a fuller exploitation of spatial temperature variation; and long-term monitoring of plant ecological and microevolutionary changes in response to warming. An evaluation of the described methodological set-ups in a synthetic framework along six axes (associated with the consistency of temperature differences, disturbance, costs, confounding factors, spatial scale and versatility) highlights their potential usefulness and power. Hence, further developments of new approaches to empirically assess warming effects on plants can critically stimulate progress in climate-change biology.

The influence of climate variability and change on the science and practice of restoration ecology

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk; Connie Millar

2016-01-01

Variation in Earth’s climate system has always been a primary driver of ecosystem processes and biological evolution. In recent decades, however, the prospect of anthropogenically driven change to the climate system has become an increasingly dominant concern for scientists and conservation biologists. Understanding how ecosystems may...

How the biodiversity sciences may aid biological tools and ecological engineering to assess the impact of climatic changes.

PubMed

Morand, S; Guégan, J-F

2008-08-01

This paper addresses how climate changes interact with other global changes caused by humans (habitat fragmentation, changes in land use, bioinvasions) to affect biodiversity. Changes in biodiversity at all levels (genetic, population and community) affect the functioning of ecosystems, in particular host-pathogen interactions, with major consequences in health ecology (emergence and re-emergence; the evolution of virulence and resistance). In this paper, the authors demonstrate that the biodiversity sciences, epidemiological theory and evolutionary ecology are indispensable in assessing the impact of climate changes, and also for modelling the evolution of host-pathogen interactions in a changing environment. The next step is to apply health ecology to the science of ecological engineering.

Using Deep Learning to Assess Future Flood Magnitude and Frequency in the Semi-arid and Snowmelt-dominated Missouri River Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, B.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

There has been growing interest for hydrologists and water resources managers about the emergence of non-stationarities associated with the hydro-meteorological processes driving floods. Among the potential causes of non-stationarity, climate change is deemed a major one. Understanding the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes of the Missouri River is challenging. In this region, floods are mainly triggered by snow melting, either when temperatures get mild in spring/summer, or when rain falls over snow in early spring and fall. The sparsely gauged and topographically complex area degrades the value of hydrological modeling that otherwise might foreshadow the evolution of hydro-meteorological interactions between precipitation, temperature and snow. In this work, we explore the utility of Deep Learning (DL) for assessing flood magnitude change under climate change. By using multiple hidden layers within artificial neural networks (ANNs), DL allows modeling complex interactions between inputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature and snow water equivalent) and outputs (i.e. water discharge). The objective is to develop a parsimonious model of the flood processes that maintain the contribution of nonstationary factors and their potential evolution under climate change, while reducing extraneous factors not central to flood generation. By comparing ANN's performance with outputs from two hydrological models of differing complexity (i.e. VIC, SAC-SMA), we evaluate the modeling capability of ANNs for three snow-dominated catchments that represent different flood regimes (Yellowstone River at Billings (MT; USGS 06214500), Powder River near Locate (MT; USGS 06326500) and James River near Scotland (SD; USGS 06478500)). Nonstationary inputs for each flood process model are derived from dynamically downscaled climate projections (from the NARCCAP experiment) to project floods in the three selected catchments. The uncertainty of future snow projections as well as its impact on spring flooding are explored. Future flood frequency obtained with ANNs is compared with the one obtained thanks to hydrological models and with the traditional approach as described in Bulletin 17C. Keywords: Flood, Climate-change, Snow, Neural Networks

A comprehensive phylogeny of the genus Kurixalus (Rhacophoridae, Anura) sheds light on the geographical range evolution of frilled swamp treefrogs.

PubMed

Lv, Yun-Yun; He, Kai; Klaus, Sebastian; Brown, Rafe M; Li, Jia-Tang

2018-04-01

Currently, the genus Kurixalus comprises 14 species distributed in Southern, Southeast and East Asia. Because of their relatively low dispersal capability and intolerance of seawater, this group is ideal for the study of terrestrial range evolution, especially that portion of its range that extends into the island archipelagos of Southern Asia. We assembled a large dataset of mitochondrial and nuclear genes, and estimated phylogeny by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, and we explored the history of each species via divergence-time estimation based on fossil-calibrations. A variety of ancestral-area reconstruction strategies were employed to estimate past changes of the species' geographical range, and to evaluate the impact of different abiotic barriers on range evolution. We found that frilled swamp treefrogs probably originated in Taiwan or South Vietnam in the Oligocene. Alternatively, the lineage leading to Kurixalus appendiculatus strongly supports a hypothesis of terrestrial connection between the Indian and Asian continents in the Oligocene. The outcome of both our divergence-time estimates and ancestral-area reconstruction suggests that the divergence between species from Indochina and Taiwan can probably be attributed to the opening of the South China Sea, approximately 33 million years ago. We could not find evidence for dispersal between mainland China and Taiwan Island. Formation of both Mekong and Red River valleys did not have any impact on Kurixalus species diversification. However, coincidence in timing of climate change and availability of plausible dispersal routes from the Oligocene to the middle Miocene, plausibly implied that Kurixalus diversification in Asia resulted from contemporaneous, climate-induced environmental upheaval (Late Oligocene Warming at 29 Ma; Mi-1 glaciation since 24.4-21.5 Ma; Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum at 14 Ma), which alternatively opened and closed dispersal routes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A ~600 kyr duration Early Pleistocene record from the West Turkana (Kenya) HSPDP drill site: elemental XRF variability to reconstruct climate change in Turkana Boy's backyard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhecke, M.; Beck, C. C.; Brown, E. T.; Cohen, A.; Deino, A. L.; Feibel, C. S.; Sier, M.

2015-12-01

Outcrops in the Kenyan and Ethiopian rift valleys document repeated occurrences of freshwater lakes and wooded landscapes over the past 4 million years at locations that are currently seasonally-dry savanna. Studies of the rich fossil records, in combination with outcropping lacustrine sequences, led to major breakthroughs in our knowledge of driving factors in human evolution. However, study of continuous drill core from ancient lake basins provides a basis for to unravel East African climate dynamics in an unseen fashion. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP), and the related Olorgesailie Drilling Project, recovered ~2 km of drill core since 2012. A major project goal is characterization of East African paleoclimate in order to evaluate its impact on hominin evolution. XRF core scanning data provide a means of evaluating records of past environmental conditions continuously and at high resolution. However, the HSPDP records contain complex lithologies reflecting repeated episodes of inundation and desiccation of the lake basins. Nevertheless, careful data evaluation based on detailed lithostratigraphy, which includes smear-slide microscopic analyses and X-radiographic images, allows disentanglement of complex signals and robust identification of continuous sequences for any cyclostratigraphic and statistical analysis. At the HSPDP Turkana Basin site a 175.6 m-long core the covers the Early Pleistocene time window during which hominids first expanded out of Africa and marine records document reorganization of tropical climate and the development of the strong Walker circulation. This drill site carries particular interest as it is located in only 2.5 km from the location of one of the most complete hominin skeletons ever recovered (Turkana Boy). Here we present a methodological approach to address the highly variable lithostratigraphy of the East African records to establish comprehensive and environmentally meaningful paleoclimate timeseries. In addition, the XRF record of the changing hydroclimate of the West Turkana Basin from 1.3 to 1.9 kyrs will be explored in relation to regional reconstructions and marine stratigraphies.

The Modelling Analysis of the Response of Convective Transport of Energy and Water to Multiscale Surface Heterogeneity over Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, G.; Hu, Z.; Ma, Y.; Ma, W.

2017-12-01

The land-atmospheric interactions over a heterogeneous surface is a tricky issue for accurately understanding the energy-water exchanges between land surface and atmosphere. We investigate the vertical transport of energy and water over a heterogeneous land surface in Tibetan Plateau during the evolution of the convective boundary layer using large eddy simulation (WRF_LES). The surface heterogeneity is created according to remote sensing images from high spatial resolution LandSat ETM+ images. The PBL characteristics over a heterogeneous surface are analyzed in terms of secondary circulations under different background wind conditions based on the horizontal and vertical distribution and evolution of wind. The characteristics of vertical transport of energy and heat over a heterogeneous surface are analyzed in terms of the horizontal distribution as well as temporal evolution of sensible and latent heat fluxes at different heights under different wind conditions on basis of the simulated results from WRF_LES. The characteristics of the heat and water transported into the free atmosphere from surface are also analyzed and quantified according to the simulated results from WRF_LES. The convective transport of energy and water are analyzed according to horizontal and vertical distributions of potential temperature and vapor under different background wind conditions. With the analysis based on the WRF_LES simulation, the performance of PBL schemes of mesoscale simulation (WRF_meso) is evaluated. The comparison between horizontal distribution of vertical fluxes and domain-averaged vertical fluxes of the energy and water in the free atmosphere is used to evaluate the performance of PBL schemes of WRF_meso in the simulation of vertical exchange of energy and water. This is an important variable because only the energy and water transported into free atmosphere is able to influence the regional and even global climate. This work would will be of great significance not only for understanding the land atmosphere interactions over a heterogeneous surface by evaluating and improving the performance PBL schemes in WRF-meso, but also for the understanding the profound effect of Tibetan Plateau on the regional and global climate.

Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1961 to 2100: projected changes in mean temperature and future heat waves characterization (with a statistical evaluation of RCMs local performance)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

Marche region (central Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea) climate dynamics are connected to the Mediterranean basin, identified as one of the most sensitive areas to ongoing climate change. Taken into account difficulties to carry out an overarching assessment over the heterogeneous Mediterranean climate-change issues frame, we opted toward a consistent regional bordered study. Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature, with an introductory multi-statistical model performance evaluation and a future heat waves intensity and duration characterization, are here presented. Multi-model projections over Marche Region, on daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research Institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations from 1961 to 2100 refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km. Furthermore, two RCMs outputs from Med-CORDEX project, with a higher horizontal resolution (12km x 12km) and boundary conditions provided by the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Observed daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over Marche region domain have been extracted from E-OBS gridded data set (Version 9.0) referring to the period 1970-2004. This twofold work firstly provides a concise statistical summary of how well employed RCMs reproduce observed (1970-2004) mean temperature over Marche region in term of correlation, root-mean-square difference, and ratio of their variances, graphically displayed on a 2D-Taylor diagram. This multi-statistical model performance evaluation easily allows: - to compare the agreement with observation of the 9 individual RCMs - to compare RCMs with different horizontal resolution (12 km and 25 km) - to evaluate the improvement provided by the RCMs ensemble. Results indicate that the 9 RCMs ensemble provides the statistically best reproduction of the observed interannual mean temperature distribution. Secondly, we assessed projected seasonal ensemble average change in mean temperature referring to the ending 21st century obtained by comparison between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 time slice modeled mean value over Marche region. Results emphasize summer as the season most affected by projected temperature increase (+4.5°C / +5.0°C), followed by spring season temperature increase (+3.5°C / +4.0°C). Finally, considering that some of the most severe health hazards arise from multi-day heat-waves, associated with both hot day-time and warm night-time temperatures, we assessed modeled trend (1961-2100) of the heat waves intensity and duration: intensity through the temporal evolution of the summer (J J A months) maximum and minimum temperature 90th percentile, heat waves length by temporal evolution of two detected threshold-based indices (annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmin >= 24°C and annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmax > = 32°C). Same analysis for both coastal and mountainous areas has been conducted. Future research plans aim to involve ensemble RCMs simulation, processed with bias correction methods, in forcing climate change impacts models, to provide a detailed regional heat waves impacts scenario, mainly over agriculture and health sectors.

Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.

2012-01-01

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

SaLEM (v1.0) - the Soil and Landscape Evolution Model (SaLEM) for simulation of regolith depth in periglacial environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Michael; Conrad, Olaf; Günther, Andreas; Gehrt, Ernst; Baritz, Rainer; Böhner, Jürgen

2018-04-01

We propose the implementation of the Soil and Landscape Evolution Model (SaLEM) for the spatiotemporal investigation of soil parent material evolution following a lithologically differentiated approach. Relevant parts of the established Geomorphic/Orogenic Landscape Evolution Model (GOLEM) have been adapted for an operational Geographical Information System (GIS) tool within the open-source software framework System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA), thus taking advantage of SAGA's capabilities for geomorphometric analyses. The model is driven by palaeoclimatic data (temperature, precipitation) representative of periglacial areas in northern Germany over the last 50 000 years. The initial conditions have been determined for a test site by a digital terrain model and a geological model. Weathering, erosion and transport functions are calibrated using extrinsic (climatic) and intrinsic (lithologic) parameter data. First results indicate that our differentiated SaLEM approach shows some evidence for the spatiotemporal prediction of important soil parental material properties (particularly its depth). Future research will focus on the validation of the results against field data, and the influence of discrete events (mass movements, floods) on soil parent material formation has to be evaluated.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Treesearch

L.G. Crozier; A.P. Hendry; P.W. Lawson; T.P. Quinn; N.J. Mantua; J. Battin; R.G. Shaw; R.B. Huey

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (...

Research on plant utilization and adaptation to environment of human in Guangxi of Southern China during the latest 30000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Xie, G.

2017-12-01

It is an important scientific problem in the study of the relationship between man and land to select the key areas and important periods of human evolution. In the latest 30 thousand years, it is an important period for late Pleistocene climate change, which has a profound impact on human evolution. Southern China including Guangxi has a unique geographical landscape pattern and unique vegetation and climate background, which is not only an important channel for the diffusion and migration of ancient humans but also an ideal refuge to avoid climate changes. It preserved the rich archaeological remains of the evolution and development of human beings, and provided a rare place for the adaptive strategies of human survival and early the environment. In this paper, Yahuai cave site in Guangxi will be selected for investigation. We will analyze the continuous accumulation of ancient human remains, and utilized AMS14C to reconstruct the dating framework. We will also extract the plant information and environment of the site through pollen, phytolith, grain and starch grains. We will further explore the succession mode of utilization of plant resources and its relationship with climate change and reveal the adaptability to the environment and strategy.

Response of ice caves to weather extremes in the southeastern Alps, Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colucci, R. R.; Fontana, D.; Forte, E.; Potleca, M.; Guglielmin, M.

2016-05-01

High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesser-known portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature < 3 °C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0 °C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.

PubMed

Anderson, Jill T; Inouye, David W; McKinney, Amy M; Colautti, Robert I; Mitchell-Olds, Tom

2012-09-22

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.

Climatic niche conservatism and ecological opportunity in the explosive radiation of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae, Cricetidae).

PubMed

Lv, Xue; Xia, Lin; Ge, Deyan; Wu, Yongjie; Yang, Qisen

2016-05-01

Climatic niche conservatism shapes patterns of diversity in many taxonomic groups, while ecological opportunity (EO) can trigger rapid speciation that is less constrained by the amount of time a lineage has occupied a given habitat. These two processes are well studied, but limited research has considered their joint and relative roles in shaping diversity patterns. We characterized climatic and biogeographic variables for 102 species of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae, Cricetidae), testing the effects of climatic niche conservatism and EO on arvicoline diversification as lineages transitioned between biogeographic regions. We found that the amount of time a lineage has occupied a precipitation niche is positively correlated with diversity along a precipitation gradient, suggesting climatic niche conservatism. In contrast, shift in diversification rate explained diversity patterns along a temperature gradient. Our results suggest that an indirect relationship exists between temperature and diversification that is associated with EO as arvicoline rodents colonized warm Palearctic environments. Climatic niche conservatism alone did not fully explain diversity patterns under density-dependence, highlighting the additional importance of EO-related processes in promoting the explosive radiation in arvicoline rodents and shaping diversity pattern among biogeographic regions and along climatic gradients. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Increased susceptibility to fungal disease accompanies adaptation to drought in Brassica rapa.

PubMed

O'Hara, Niamh B; Rest, Joshua S; Franks, Steven J

2016-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated adaptive evolutionary responses to climate change, but little is known about how these responses may influence ecological interactions with other organisms, including natural enemies. We used a resurrection experiment in the greenhouse to examine the effect of evolutionary responses to drought on the susceptibility of Brassica rapa plants to a fungal pathogen, Alternaria brassicae. In agreement with previous studies in this population, we found an evolutionary shift to earlier flowering postdrought, which was previously shown to be adaptive. Here, we report the novel finding that postdrought descendant plants were also more susceptible to disease, indicating a rapid evolutionary shift to increased susceptibility. This was accompanied by an evolutionary shift to increased specific leaf area (thinner leaves) following drought. We found that flowering time and disease susceptibility displayed plastic responses to experimental drought treatments, but that this plasticity did not match the direction of evolution, indicating that plastic and evolutionary responses to changes in climate can be opposed. The observed evolutionary shift to increased disease susceptibility accompanying adaptation to drought provides evidence that even if populations can rapidly adapt in response to climate change, evolution in other traits may have ecological effects that could make species more vulnerable. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Assessment of Plio-Pleistocene Sea Surface Temperature Evolution Across Ocean Basins, Hemispheres, and Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, L.; Lawrence, K. T.; Mauriello, H.; Wilson, J.; Holte, L.

2015-12-01

New sea surface temperature (SST) records from the southern Pacific and southern Atlantic Oceans allow assessment of similarities and differences in climate evolution across ocean basins, hemispheres, and latitudes over the last 5 million years. Our high-resolution, alkenone-derived SST records from ODP Sites 1088 (South Atlantic, 41°S) and 1125 (South Pacific, 42°S) share strong structural similarities. When compared with SST records from the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, these records provide compelling evidence for broadly hemispherically symmetrical open-ocean temperature evolution in both ocean basins as tropical warm pools contracted over the Plio-Pleistocene. This symmetry in temperature evolution occurs despite strong asymmetries in the development of the cryosphere over this interval, which was marked by extensive northern hemisphere ice sheet growth. Parallel SST evolution across ocean basins and hemispheres suggests that on longterm (>105 yr) timescales, many regions of the world ocean are more sensitive to the global energy budget than to local or regional climate dynamics, although important exceptions include coastal upwelling zone SSTs, high latitude SSTs, and benthic δ18O. Our analysis further reveals that throughout the last 5 Ma, temperature evolution in the extra-tropical Pacific of both hemispheres is very similar to the evolution of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific upwelling zone, revealing tight coupling between the growth of meridional and equatorial Pacific zonal temperature gradients over this interval as both the extra-tropics and the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue underwent cooling. Finally, while long term temperature evolution is broadly consistent across latitudes and ocean basins throughout the entire Plio-Pleistocene, we see evidence that climate coupling on orbital timescales strengthened significantly at 2.7 Ma, at which point obliquity-band coherence emerges among diverse SST records. We attribute this emergence of coherence to a strengthened greenhouse gas feedback at the obliquity frequency that was initiated with the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation, as proposed by Herbert et al. (2010).

Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

PubMed

Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

2016-01-01

Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

Scalariform-to-simple transition in vessel perforation plates triggered by differences in climate during the evolution of Adoxaceae

PubMed Central

Lens, Frederic; Vos, Rutger A.; Charrier, Guillaume; van der Niet, Timo; Merckx, Vincent; Baas, Pieter; Aguirre Gutierrez, Jesus; Jacobs, Bart; Chacon Dória, Larissa; Smets, Erik; Delzon, Sylvain; Janssens, Steven B.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Angiosperms with simple vessel perforations have evolved many times independently of species having scalariform perforations, but detailed studies to understand why these transitions in wood evolution have happened are lacking. We focus on the striking difference in wood anatomy between two closely related genera of Adoxaceae, Viburnum and Sambucus, and link the anatomical divergence with climatic and physiological insights. Methods After performing wood anatomical observations, we used a molecular phylogenetic framework to estimate divergence times for 127 Adoxaceae species. The conditions under which the genera diversified were estimated using ancestral area reconstruction and optimization of ancestral climates, and xylem-specific conductivity measurements were performed. Key Results Viburnum, characterized by scalariform vessel perforations (ancestral), diversified earlier than Sambucus, having simple perforations (derived). Ancestral climate reconstruction analyses point to cold temperate preference for Viburnum and warm temperate for Sambucus. This is reflected in the xylem-specific conductivity rates of the co-occurring species investigated, showing that Viburnum lantana has rates much lower than Sambucus nigra. Conclusions The lack of selective pressure for high conductive efficiency during early diversification of Viburnum and the potentially adaptive value of scalariform perforations in frost-prone cold temperate climates have led to retention of the ancestral vessel perforation type, while higher temperatures during early diversification of Sambucus have triggered the evolution of simple vessel perforations, allowing more efficient long-distance water transport. PMID:27498812

Climate-driven thresholds for chemical weathering in postglacial soils of New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Jean L.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Vitousek, Peter M.

2016-09-01

Chemical weathering in soils dissolves and alters minerals, mobilizes metals, liberates nutrients to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and may modulate Earth's climate over geologic time scales. Climate-weathering relationships are often considered fundamental controls on the evolution of Earth's surface and biogeochemical cycles. However, surprisingly little consensus has emerged on if and how climate controls chemical weathering, and models and data from published literature often give contrasting correlations and predictions for how weathering rates and climate variables such as temperature or moisture are related. Here we combine insights gained from the different approaches, methods, and theory of the soil science, biogeochemistry, and geomorphology communities to tackle the fundamental question of how rainfall influences soil chemical properties. We explore climate-driven variations in weathering and soil development in young, postglacial soils of New Zealand, measuring soil elemental geochemistry along a large precipitation gradient (400-4700 mm/yr) across the Waitaki basin on Te Waipounamu, the South Island. Our data show a strong climate imprint on chemical weathering in these young soils. This climate control is evidenced by rapid nonlinear changes along the gradient in total and exchangeable cations in soils and in the increased movement and redistribution of metals with rainfall. The nonlinear behavior provides insight into why climate-weathering relationships may be elusive in some landscapes. These weathering thresholds also have significant implications for how climate may influence landscape evolution and the release of rock-derived nutrients to ecosystems, as landscapes that transition to wetter climates across this threshold may weather and deplete rapidly.

Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

Conifer species adapt to low-rainfall climates by following one of two divergent pathways.

PubMed

Brodribb, Timothy J; McAdam, Scott A M; Jordan, Gregory J; Martins, Samuel C V

2014-10-07

Water stress is one of the primary selective forces in plant evolution. There are characters often cited as adaptations to water stress, but links between the function of these traits and adaptation to drying climates are tenuous. Here we combine distributional, climatic, and physiological evidence from 42 species of conifers to show that the evolution of drought resistance follows two distinct pathways, both involving the coordinated evolution of tissues regulating water supply (xylem) and water loss (stomatal pores) in leaves. Only species with very efficient stomatal closure, and hence low minimum rates of water loss, inhabit dry habitats, but species diverged in their apparent mechanism for maintaining closed stomata during drought. An ancestral mechanism found in Pinaceae and Araucariaceae species relies on high levels of the hormone abscisic acid (ABA) to close stomata during water stress. A second mechanism, found in the majority of Cupressaceae species, uses leaf desiccation rather than high ABA levels to close stomata during sustained water stress. Species in the latter group were characterized by xylem tissues with extreme resistance to embolism but low levels of foliar ABA after 30 d without water. The combination of low levels of ABA under stress with cavitation-resistant xylem enables these species to prolong stomatal opening during drought, potentially extending their photosynthetic activity between rainfall events. Our data demonstrate a surprising simplicity in the way conifers evolved to cope with water shortage, indicating a critical interaction between xylem and stomatal tissues during the process of evolution to dry climates.

Precipitation Estimation from the ARM Distributed Radar Network During the MC3E Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theisen, A. K.; Giangrande, S. E.; Collis, S. M.

2012-12-01

The DOE - NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) was the first demonstration of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility scanning precipitation radar platforms. A goal for the MC3E field campaign over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility was to demonstrate the capabilities of ARM polarimetric radar systems for providing unique insights into deep convective storm evolution and microphysics. One practical application of interest for climate studies and the forcing of cloud resolving models is improved Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) from ARM radar systems positioned at SGP. This study presents the results of ARM radar-based precipitation estimates during the 2-month MC3E campaign. Emphasis is on the usefulness of polarimetric C-band radar observations (CSAPR) for rainfall estimation to distances within 100 km of the Oklahoma SGP facility. Collocated ground disdrometer resources, precipitation profiling radars and nearby surface Oklahoma Mesonet gauge records are consulted to evaluate potential ARM radar-based rainfall products and optimal methods. Rainfall products are also evaluated against the regional NEXRAD-standard observations.

Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Storck, Pascal; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2009-05-01

The effects of forest canopies on snow accumulation and ablation processes can be very important for the hydrology of midlatitude and high-latitude areas. A mass and energy balance model for snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments was developed utilizing extensive measurements of snow interception and release in a maritime mountainous site in Oregon. The model was evaluated using 2 years of weighing lysimeter data and was able to reproduce the snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution throughout winters both beneath the canopy and in the nearby clearing, with correlations to observations ranging from 0.81 to 0.99. Additionally, the model was evaluated using measurements from a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) field site in Canada to test the robustness of the canopy snow interception algorithm in a much different climate. Simulated SWE was relatively close to the observations for the forested sites, with discrepancies evident in some cases. Although the model formulation appeared robust for both types of climates, sensitivity to parameters such as snow roughness length and maximum interception capacity suggested the magnitude of improvements of SWE simulations that might be achieved by calibration.

[A wavelet analysis on the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its relationship with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors].

PubMed

Fu, Bang-ze; Tang, Qiao-ling; Huang, Ling; He, Juan

2013-03-01

To explore the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its association with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors (FEPSCF). Based on the monthly scarlet fever data from 1970 to 2004, Complex Morlet wavelet was adopted to analyze the annual incidence and the incidence of six climatic factors in the past 35 years. Its association with the cycles of FEP-SCF was explored. The features of heavenly stems and earthly branches in the year that the wave peak corresponded and their correlations with doctrine of FEPSCF were analyzed. The annual incidence of scarlet fever and the incidence of FEPSCF had two main cycles, i.e., 5 years and 28 years. The 5-year primary cycle was consistent with 5-year cycle of FEPSCF theory. The high incidence year of 5-year primary cycle was Jinyun. The cycle of five evolutive phases was consistent with the onset cycle of scarlet fever. The quasi-periodic phenomenon and multi-cycle superimposed phenomenon of FEPSCF theory existed in the incidence of scarlet fever.

Controversy in Biology Classrooms-Citizen Science Approaches to Evolution and Applications to Climate Change Discussions.

PubMed

Yoho, Rachel A; Vanmali, Binaben H

2016-03-01

The biological sciences encompass topics considered controversial by the American public, such as evolution and climate change. We believe that the development of climate change education in the biology classroom is better informed by an understanding of the history of the teaching of evolution. A common goal for science educators should be to engender a greater respect for and appreciation of science among students while teaching specific content knowledge. Citizen science has emerged as a viable yet underdeveloped method for engaging students of all ages in key scientific issues that impact society through authentic data-driven scientific research. Where successful, citizen science may open avenues of communication and engagement with the scientific process that would otherwise be more difficult to achieve. Citizen science projects demonstrate versatility in education and the ability to test hypotheses by collecting large amounts of often publishable data. We find a great possibility for science education research in the incorporation of citizen science projects in curriculum, especially with respect to "hot topics" of socioscientific debate based on our review of the findings of other authors. Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education.

Climatic niche evolution is faster in sympatric than allopatric lineages of the butterfly genus Pyrgus

PubMed Central

Pitteloud, Camille; Arrigo, Nils; Suchan, Tomasz; Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Dincă, Vlad; Hernández-Roldán, Juan; Brockmann, Ernst; Chittaro, Yannick; Kleckova, Irena; Fumagalli, Luca; Buerki, Sven; Pellissier, Loïc

2017-01-01

Understanding how speciation relates to ecological divergence has long fascinated biologists. It is assumed that ecological divergence is essential to sympatric speciation, as a mechanism to avoid competition and eventually lead to reproductive isolation, while divergence in allopatry is not necessarily associated with niche differentiation. The impact of the spatial context of divergence on the evolutionary rates of abiotic dimensions of the ecological niche has rarely been explored for an entire clade. Here, we compare the magnitude of climatic niche shifts between sympatric versus allopatric divergence of lineages in butterflies. By combining next-generation sequencing, parametric biogeography and ecological niche analyses applied to a genus-wide phylogeny of Palaearctic Pyrgus butterflies, we compare evolutionary rates along eight climatic dimensions across sister lineages that diverged in large-scale sympatry versus allopatry. In order to examine the possible effects of the spatial scale at which sympatry is defined, we considered three sets of biogeographic assignments, ranging from narrow to broad definition. Our findings suggest higher rates of niche evolution along all climatic dimensions for sister lineages that diverge in sympatry, when using a narrow delineation of biogeographic areas. This result contrasts with significantly lower rates of climatic niche evolution found in cases of allopatric speciation, despite the biogeographic regions defined here being characterized by significantly different climates. Higher rates in allopatry are retrieved when biogeographic areas are too widely defined—in such a case allopatric events may be recorded as sympatric. Our results reveal the macro-evolutionary significance of abiotic niche differentiation involved in speciation processes within biogeographic regions, and illustrate the importance of the spatial scale chosen to define areas when applying parametric biogeographic analyses. PMID:28404781

Past Climate Change and Plant Evolution in Western North America: A Case Study in Rosaceae

PubMed Central

Töpel, Mats; Antonelli, Alexandre; Yesson, Chris; Eriksen, Bente

2012-01-01

Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification. PMID:23236369

Climatic Evolution and Habitability of Terrestrial Planets: Perspectives from Coupled Atmosphere-Mantle Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu Sarkar, D.; Moore, W. B.

2016-12-01

A multitude of factors including the distance from the host star and the stage of planetary evolution affect planetary climate and habitability. The complex interactions between the atmosphere and dynamics of the deep interior of the planets along with stellar fluxes present a formidable challenge. This work employs simplified approaches to address these complex issues in a systematic way. To be specific, we are investigating the coupled evolution of atmosphere and mantle dynamics. The overarching goal here is to simulate the evolutionary history of the terrestrial planets, for example Venus, Earth and Mars. This research also aims at deciphering the history of Venus-like runaway greenhouse and thus explore the possibility of cataclysmic shifts in climate of Earth-like planets. We focus on volatile cycling within the solid planets to understand the role of carbon/water in climatic and tectonic outcomes of such planets. In doing so, we are considering the feedbacks in the coupled mantle-atmosphere system. The primary feedback between the atmosphere and mantle is the surface temperature established by the greenhouse effect, which regulates the temperature gradient that drives the mantle convection and controls the rate at which volatiles are exchanged through weathering. We start our models with different initial assumptions to determine the final climate outcomes within a reasonable parameter space. Currently, there are very few planetary examples, to sample the climate outcomes, however this will soon change as exoplanets are discovered and examined. Therefore, we will be able to work with a significant number of potential candidates to answer questions like this one: For every Earth is there one Venus? ten? a thousand?

A synthesis of Plio-Pleistocene leaf wax biomarker records of hydrological variation in East Africa and their relationship with hominin evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupien, R.; Russell, J. M.; Campisano, C. J.; Feibel, C. S.; Deino, A. L.; Kingston, J.; Potts, R.; Cohen, A. S.

2017-12-01

Climate change is thought to play a critical role in human evolution. However, the mechanisms behind this relationship are difficult to test due to a lack of long, high-quality paleoclimate records from hominin fossil locales. We improve the understanding of this relationship by examining Plio-Pleistocene lake sediment cores from East Africa that were drilled by the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project, an international effort to study the environment in which our hominin ancestors evolved and dispersed. We have analyzed organic geochemical signals of climate from drill cores from Ethiopia and Kenya spanning the Pliocene to recent time (from north to south: paleolake Hadar, Lake Turkana, Lake Baringo, and paleolake Koora). Specifically, we analyzed the hydrogen isotopic composition of terrestrial leaf waxes, which records changes in regional atmospheric circulation and hydrology. We reconstructed quantitative records of rainfall amount at each of the study sites, which host sediment spanning different geologic times and regions. By compiling these records, we test hominin evolutionary hypotheses as well as crucial questions about climate trend and variability. We find that there is a gradual or step-wise enrichment in δDwax, signifying a trend from a wet to dry climate, from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene, perhaps implying an influence of global temperature, ice sheet extent, and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on East African climate. However, the shift is small relative to the amplitude of orbital-scale isotopic variations. The records indicate a strong influence of eccentricity-modulated orbital precession, and imply that local insolation effects are the likely cause of East African precipitation. Several of the intervals of high isotopic variability coincide with key hominin fossil or technological transitions, suggesting that climate variability plays a key role in hominin evolution.

An Investigation of Transgressive Deposits in Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville using GPR and UAV-produced DEMs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schide, K.; Jewell, P. W.; Oviatt, C. G.; Jol, H. M.

2015-12-01

Lake Bonneville was the largest of the Pleistocene pluvial lakes that once filled the Great Basin of the interior western United States. Its two most prominent shorelines, Bonneville and Provo, are well documented but many of the lake's intermediate shoreline features have yet to be studied. These transgressive barriers and embankments mark short-term changes in the regional water budget and thus represent a proxy for local climate change. The internal and external structures of these features are analyzed using the following methods: ground penetrating radar, 5 meter auto-correlated DEMs, 1-meter DEMs generated from LiDAR, high-accuracy handheld GPS, and 3D imagery collected with an unmanned aerial vehicle. These methods in mapping, surveying, and imaging provide a quantitative analysis of regional sediment availability, transportation, and deposition as well as changes in wave and wind energy. These controls help define climate thresholds and rates of landscape evolution in the Great Basin during the Pleistocene that are then evaluated in the context of global climate change.

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1992-01-01

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Fire responses to postglacial climate change and human impact in northern Patagonia (41-43°S).

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-12-23

Forest/steppe boundaries are among the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth and are highly vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. In this study we examine the postglacial history of the Patagonian forest/steppe ecotone (41-43°S) to better understand its sensitivity to past variations in climate, disturbance, and human activity before European colonization. We present regional trends in vegetation and biomass burning, as detected by generalized additive models fitted to seven pollen and charcoal records, and compare the results with other paleoenvironmental data, as well as archeological and ecological information to (i) estimate postglacial fire trends at regional scales, (ii) assess the evolution of climate-vegetation-fire linkages over the last 18,000 calibrated (cal) years B.P., and (iii) evaluate the role of humans in altering pre-European landscapes and fire regimes. Pollen and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning was relatively low during warm/dry steppe-dominated landscapes in the late glacial/Early Holocene transition and increased as more humid conditions favored forest development after ca. 10,000 cal years B.P. Postglacial fire activity was thus limited by fuel availability associated with sparse vegetation cover rather than by suitable climate conditions. In contrast to extensive burning by European settlers, variations in indigenous population densities were not associated with fluctuations in regional or watershed-scale fire occurrence, suggesting that climate-vegetation-fire linkages in northern Patagonia evolved with minimal or very localized human influences before European settlement.

Hydrofutures and Hydromorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2006-12-01

Hydromorphology refers to the science of hydrologic evolution. It represents a synthesis of planetary and social sciences that collectively determine the spatial and temporal evolution of planetary water. At present human actions directly or indirectly play a major role in determining hydrofutures. Man's role in changing water trajectories is now clear at both local and planetary scales. Changing climate leads to changing ecology and changing water patterns. Changing water conditions may in turn regulate (limit anthropogenic climate change) or adversely impact (e.g., runaway greenhouse) climate, as well as human habitation and water use patterns. This talk will address the problem of the prediction of future hydrologic conditions in the different media and reservoirs of the planet, from the integrated perspective indicated above. Key examples of the mechanisms of hydrologic change, that relate to climate and ecological dyanmics, and to human activity are identified as well. A theoretical framework for researching this multi-attribute dynamical system from a water centric perspective is advocated as a critical need for planetary science and human welfare.

The evolution of 13C and 18O isotope composition of DIC in a calcite depositing film of water with isotope exchange between the DIC and a CO2 containing atmosphere, and simultaneous evaporation of the water. Implication to climate proxies from stalagmites: A theoretical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreybrodt, Wolfgang; Romanov, Douchko

2016-12-01

The most widely applied climate proxies in speleothems are the isotope compositions of carbon and oxygen expressed by δ13C and δ18O values. However, mechanisms, which are not related to climate changes, overlay the climate signal. One is the temporal increase of both, δ13C and δ18O values by kinetic processes during precipitation of calcite. Isotope exchange between DIC in the water and the CO2 in the surrounding cave atmosphere can also change isotope composition. Here we present a theoretical model of the temporal isotope evolution of DIC in a thin water layer during precipitation of calcite and simultaneous isotope exchange with the cave atmosphere, and simultaneous evaporation of water. The exchange of oxygen isotopes in the DIC with those in the water is also considered.

ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Mann, Michael E.

2003-01-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of Southern Hemisphere climate variability is diagnosed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1948-2000) dataset. Using the MTM-SVD analysis method, significant narrowband variability is isolated from the multi-variate dataset. It is found that the ENSO signal exhibits statistically significant behavior at quasiquadrennial (3-6 yr) timescales for the full time-period. A significant quasibiennial (2-3 yr) timescales emerges only for the latter half of period. Analyses of the spatial evolution of the two reconstructed signals shed additional light on linkages between low and high-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies.

Taking climate change seriously: An analysis of op-ed articles in Spanish press.

PubMed

Domínguez, Martí; Lafita, Íngrid; Mateu, Anna

2017-10-01

In this article, we study the evolution of opinion genres regarding climate change in three Spanish newspapers ( El País, El Mundo, and ABC). Analyzing the op-ed articles in these newspapers, we observe a significant change in the evolution of opinion. While denialism was very present in conservative press in 2007, 7 years later it is almost absent from El Mundo, and its presence in ABC is much lower and inactive: this shows that scientific consensus has prevailed over time and Spanish denialism has weakened, exclusively supported by political arguments by the most conservative parties.

Playing evolution in the laboratory: From the first major evolutionary transition to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fragata, Inês; Simões, Pedro; Matos, Margarida; Szathmáry, Eörs; Santos, Mauro

2018-05-01

Experimental evolution allows testing hypotheses derived from theory or from observed patterns in nature. We have designed a droplet-based microfluidic “evolution machine” to test how transient compartmentalization (“trait-groups”) of independent molecular replicators (likely a critical step in the origin of life) could have prevented the spread of parasitic mutants; that is, inactive RNAs that have been reported to spoil a system of free replicators. In remarkable agreement with the theory, we show that this simple population structure was sufficient to prevent takeover by inactive RNAs. A more complex scenario arises when we use experimental evolution to test field-derived hypotheses; for instance, the idea that temperature is driving genetic spatiotemporal patterns of climate change. In the fly Drosophila subobscura, latitudinal clines in gene arrangement frequencies occur worldwide, and more equatorial gene arrangements are becoming more frequent at higher latitudes as a correlated response to climate change. However, the evolution at different constant temperatures in the laboratory was not consistent with patterns in nature, suggesting some limitations of experimental evolution. Finally, also in D. subobscura, we show that repeatability in experimental evolution is staggeringly consistent for life history traits, making evolution quite predictable and suggesting that laboratory selection can quickly erase differences between populations. Yet, the genetic paths used to attain the same adaptive phenotypes are complex and unpredictable. Contribution to the Focus Issue Evolutionary Modeling and Experimental Evolution edited by José Cuesta, Joachim Krug and Susanna Manrubia.

The Effect of paper mill waste and sewage sludge amendments on soil organic matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Ana; Barriga, Sandra; Guerrero, Francisca; Gascó, Gabriel

2013-04-01

In general, Mediterranean soils have low organic matter content, due to the climate characteristics of this region and inadequate land management. Traditionally, organic wastes such as manure are used as amendment in order to improve the soil quality, increasing soil fertility by the accumulation of nitrogen, phosphorus and other plant nutrients in the soil. In the last decade, other anthropogenic organic wastes such as sewage sludge or paper waste materials have been studied as soil amendments to improve physical, chemical and biological properties of soils. The objective of the present work was to study the influence of waste from a paper mill and sewage sludge amendments on soil organic matter. For this reason, soil organic matter evolution was studied using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), the derivative (dTG) and differential thermal analysis (DTA). Thermal analytical techniques have the advantage of using full samples without pre-treatments and have been extensively used to study the evolution of organic matter in soils, to evaluate composting process or to study the evolution of organic matter of growing media.

A Spring Forward for Human Evolution in East Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuthbert, M. O.; Ashley, G. M.

2014-12-01

The current consensus is that humans evolved in Africa and then migrated in waves to other parts of the world starting as early as 2 Ma. The climate was both cooling and drying. One of the major unknowns connected with human survival in this climatically turbulent environment is the availability of resources, particularly water. A growing body of geological evidence shows an association between springs, stone tools and hominin fossils at a number of sites in the East African Rift System (EARS) during a critical period for hominin evolution (from 1.8 Ma). The springs may have been vulnerable to climate variability, thus the role that groundwater availability may have played in human evolution and migration to other continents is not known. Using palaeogeological reconstruction and groundwater modelling of the paleo-catchment of one such EARS site, Olduvai Gorge (3°S), we show how spring discharge was likely linked to climate variability of annual to Milankovitch cycle timescales. Under decadal to centennial timescales, spring flow would have been relatively invariant providing good water resource resilience through long droughts. For multi-millennial periods, modelled spring flows lag groundwater recharge by 100s to 1000 years. Our results show how groundwater would have provided 'drought proof' water supply and habitats during arid phases as potable surface water from rivers or lakes became increasingly scarce. Localized groundwater systems are likely to have been widespread within the EARS providing refugia and intense competition during dry periods. Thus, springs and associated wetlands may have been important factors in natural selection and evolution, as well as a vital resource during dispersal within and out of Africa. While further exploration is needed to test the geographical extent of groundwater use by early humans, we propose that groundwater flow systems produced in the EARS played a significant role in the evolution and dispersal of early humans.

Ecology and evolution of pine life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.

2012-01-01

Conclusion - Understanding the current pattern of pine distribution requires interpreting their evolution in terms of climate, geology, and fire. All three of these factors have played a role since the Mesozoic origin of the genus. All are important to the appropriate management of these resources.

Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): a phylogenetic comparative analysis.

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Hahn, William J; Spangle, Jennifer M; Venable, D Lawrence

2005-09-01

Evolutionary ecologists have long sought to understand the conditions under which perennial (iteroparous) versus annual (semelparous) plant life histories are favored. We evaluated the idea that aridity and variation in the length of droughts should favor the evolution of an annual life history, both by decreasing adult survival and by increasing the potential for high seedling survival via reduced plant cover. We calculated phylogenetically independent contrasts of climate with respect to life history in a clade of winter-establishing evening primroses (sections Anogra and Kleinia; Oenothera; Onagraceae), which includes seven annuals, 12 perennials, and two variable taxa. Climate variables were quantified from long-term records at weather stations near collection localities. To explicitly account for phylogenetic uncertainty, contrasts were calculated on a random sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Statements of association are based on comparing the per-tree mean contrast, which has a null expectation of zero, to a set of per-tree mean contrasts calculated on the same trees, after randomizing the climate data. As predicted, increased annual aridity, increased annual potential evapotranspiration, and decreased annual precipitation were associated with transitions to the annual habit, but these trends were not significantly different from the null pattern. Transitions to the annual habit were not significantly associated with increases in one measure of aridity in summer nor with increased summer drought, but they were associated with significantly increased maximum summer temperatures. In winter, increased aridity and decreased precipitation were significantly associated with transitions to the annual habit. Changes in life history were not significantly associated with changes in the coefficient of variation of precipitation, either on an annual or seasonal (summer vs. winter) basis. Though we cannot attribute causality on the basis of a correlational, historical study, our results are consistent with the idea that increased heat and drought at certain times of the year favor the evolution of the annual habit. Increased heat in summer may cause adult survival to decline, while increased aridity and decreased precipitation in the season of seedling recruitment (winter) may favor a drought-avoiding, short-lived annual strategy. Not all of the predicted patterns were observed: the capability for drought-induced dormancy may preclude change in habit in response to summer drought in our study group.

Detrital zircons and Earth system evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenzie, R.

2016-12-01

Zircon is a mineral commonly produced in silicic magmatism. Therefore, due to its resilience and exceedingly long residence times in the continental crust, detrital zircon records can be used to track processes associated with silicic magmatism throughout Earth history. In this contribution I will address the potential role of preservational biases in zircon record, and further discuss how zircon datasets can be used to help better understand the relationship between lithospheric and Earth system evolution. I will use large compilations of zircon data to trace the composition and weatherability of the continental crust, to evaluate temporal rates of crustal recycling, and finally to track spatiotemporal variation in continental arc magmatism and volcanic CO2 outgassing throughout Earth history. These records demonstrate that secular changes in plate tectonic regimes played a prominent role in modulating conditions of the ocean+atmosphere system and long-term climate state for the last 3 billion years.

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Tectonic and climatic considerations for deep geological disposal of radioactive waste: A UK perspective.

PubMed

McEvoy, F M; Schofield, D I; Shaw, R P; Norris, S

2016-11-15

Identifying and evaluating the factors that might impact on the long-term integrity of a deep Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) and its surrounding geological and surface environment is central to developing a safety case for underground disposal of radioactive waste. The geological environment should be relatively stable and its behaviour adequately predictable so that scientifically sound evaluations of the long-term radiological safety of a GDF can be made. In considering this, it is necessary to take into account natural processes that could affect a GDF or modify its geological environment up to 1millionyears into the future. Key processes considered in this paper include those which result from plate tectonics, such as seismicity and volcanism, as well as climate-related processes, such as erosion, uplift and the effects of glaciation. Understanding the inherent variability of process rates, critical thresholds and likely potential influence of unpredictable perturbations represent significant challenges to predicting the natural environment. From a plate-tectonic perspective, a one million year time frame represents a very short segment of geological time and is largely below the current resolution of observation of past processes. Similarly, predicting climate system evolution on such time-scales, particularly beyond 200ka AP is highly uncertain, relying on estimating the extremes within which climate and related processes may vary with reasonable confidence. The paper highlights some of the challenges facing a deep geological disposal program in the UK to review understanding of the natural changes that may affect siting and design of a GDF. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

Geoengineering the Earth's Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Google Tech Talks

2008-01-08

Emergency preparedness is generally considered to be a good thing, yet there is no plan regarding what we might do should we be faced with a climate emergency. Such an emergency could take the form of a rapid shift in precipitation patterns, a collapse of the great ice sheets, the imminent triggering of strong climate system feedbacks, or perhaps the loss of valuable ecosystems. Over the past decade, we have used climate models to investigate the potential to reverse some of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by deflecting some incoming sunlight back to space. This would probablymore » be most cost-effectively achieved with the placement of small particles in or above the stratosphere. Our model simulations indicate that such geoengineering approaches could potentially bring our climate closer to the state is was in prior to the introduction of greenhouse gases. This talk will present much of what is known about such geoengineering approaches, and raise a range of issues likely to stimulate lively discussion. Speaker: Ken Caldeira Ken Caldeira is a scientist at the Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology and a Professor (by courtesy) at the Stanford University Department of Environmental and Earth System Sciences. Previously, he worked for 12 years in the Energy and Environment Directorate at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Department of Energy). His research interests include the numerical simulation of Earth's climate, carbon, and biogeochemistry; ocean acidification; climate emergency response systems; evaluating approaches to supplying environmentally-friendly energy services; ocean carbon sequestration; long-term evolution of climate and geochemical cycles; and marine biogeochemical cycles. Caldeira has a B.A. in Philosophy from Rutgers College and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from New York University.« less

Quantifying Tropical Glacier Mass Balance Sensitivity to Climate Change Through Regional-Scale Modeling and The Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.

2017-12-01

Quantifying mass balance sensitivity to climate change is essential for forecasting glacier evolution and deciphering climate signals embedded in archives of past glacier changes. Ideally, these quantifications result from decades of field measurement, remote sensing, and a hierarchy modeling approach, but in data-sparse regions, such as the Himalayas and tropical Andes, regional-scale modeling rooted in first principles provides a first-order picture. Previous regional-scaling modeling studies have applied a surface energy and mass balance approach in order to quantify equilibrium line altitude sensitivity to climate change. In this study, an expanded regional-scale surface energy and mass balance model is implemented to quantify glacier-wide mass balance sensitivity to climate change for tropical Andean glaciers. Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory are incorporated, and additional physical processes are included, such as a dynamic albedo and cloud-dependent atmospheric emissivity. The model output agrees well with the limited mass balance records for tropical Andean glaciers. The dominant climate variables driving interannual mass balance variability differ depending on the climate setting. For wet tropical glaciers (annual precipitation >0.75 m y-1), temperature is the dominant climate variable. Different hypotheses for the processes linking wet tropical glacier mass balance variability to temperature are evaluated. The results support the hypothesis that glacier-wide mass balance on wet tropical glaciers is largely dominated by processes at the lowest elevation where temperature plays a leading role in energy exchanges. This research also highlights the transient nature of wet tropical glaciers - the vast majority of tropical glaciers and a vital regional water resource - in an anthropogenic warming world.

Geoengineering the Earth's Climate

ScienceCinema

Google Tech Talks

2017-12-09

Emergency preparedness is generally considered to be a good thing, yet there is no plan regarding what we might do should we be faced with a climate emergency. Such an emergency could take the form of a rapid shift in precipitation patterns, a collapse of the great ice sheets, the imminent triggering of strong climate system feedbacks, or perhaps the loss of valuable ecosystems. Over the past decade, we have used climate models to investigate the potential to reverse some of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by deflecting some incoming sunlight back to space. This would probably be most cost-effectively achieved with the placement of small particles in or above the stratosphere. Our model simulations indicate that such geoengineering approaches could potentially bring our climate closer to the state is was in prior to the introduction of greenhouse gases. This talk will present much of what is known about such geoengineering approaches, and raise a range of issues likely to stimulate lively discussion. Speaker: Ken Caldeira Ken Caldeira is a scientist at the Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology and a Professor (by courtesy) at the Stanford University Department of Environmental and Earth System Sciences. Previously, he worked for 12 years in the Energy and Environment Directorate at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Department of Energy). His research interests include the numerical simulation of Earth's climate, carbon, and biogeochemistry; ocean acidification; climate emergency response systems; evaluating approaches to supplying environmentally-friendly energy services; ocean carbon sequestration; long-term evolution of climate and geochemical cycles; and marine biogeochemical cycles. Caldeira has a B.A. in Philosophy from Rutgers College and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from New York University.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Self-organization of river channels as a critical filter on climate signals.

PubMed

Phillips, Colin B; Jerolmack, Douglas J

2016-05-06

Spatial and temporal variations in rainfall are hypothesized to influence landscape evolution through erosion and sediment transport by rivers. However, determining the relation between rainfall and river dynamics requires a greater understanding of the feedbacks between flooding and a river's capacity to transport sediment. We analyzed channel geometry and stream-flow records from 186 coarse-grained rivers across the United States. We found that channels adjust their shape so that floods slightly exceed the critical shear velocity needed to transport bed sediment, independently of climatic, tectonic, and bedrock controls. The distribution of fluid shear velocity associated with floods is universal, indicating that self-organization of near-critical channels filters the climate signal evident in discharge. This effect blunts the impact of extreme rainfall events on landscape evolution. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Global vegetation distribution and terrestrial climate evolution at the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Eocene - Oligocene transition (EOT; ca. 34-33.5 Ma) is widely considered to be the biggest step in Cenozoic climate evolution. Geochemical marine records show both surface and bottom water cooling, associated with the expansion of Antarctic glaciers and a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, the global response of the terrestrial biosphere to the EOT is less well understood and not uniform when comparing different regions. We present new global vegetation and terrestrial climate reconstructions of the Priabonian (late Eocene; 38-33.9 Ma) and Rupelian (early Oligocene; 33.9-28.45 Ma) by synthesising 215 pollen and spore localities. Using presence/absence data of pollen and spores with multivariate statistics has allowed the reconstruction of palaeo-biomes without relying on modern analogues. The reconstructed palaeo-biomes do not show the equator-ward shift at the EOT, which would be expected from a global cooling. Reconstructions of mean annual temperature, cold month mean temperature and warm month mean temperature do not show a global cooling of terrestrial climate across the EOT. Our new reconstructions differ from previous global syntheses by being based on an internally consistent statistically defined classification of palaeo-biomes and our terrestrial based climate reconstructions are in stark contrast to some marine based climate estimates. Our results raise new questions on the nature and extent of terrestrial global climate change at the EOT.

Holocene evolution of a montane lake catchment inferred from multiproxy sediment analysis : climatic and anthropic impacts in french prealps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajard, Manon; Sabatier, Pierre; Poulenard, Jérôme; David, Fernand; Arnaud, Fabien; Develle, Anne-Lise; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Crouzet, Christian

2015-04-01

Lake La Thuile in the Massif des Bauges (874 m a.s.l. French Alps) provides a 18 meters sedimentary sequence. Due to its mid-altitude position, this lake is one of the first to be formed through the glacial retreat and documents the evolution of its catchment since the Late Glacial Maximum. The first 6 meters of the core cover the last 12 000 years, and allowed to study human/climate/environment interactions in a carbonated environment. This study is the first one to investigate a mid-altitude lake in the French Alps for paleoenvironment reconstruction from lake sediment archive. Its altitudinal position presents the advantage to be very accessible to human activities and allows more developed agriculture than in higher altitude. This study aims to determined how and when is expressed the erosive response of such an environment to human settlement. High resolution multiproxy analysis of the first 6 meters including sedimentological, palynological and geochemical data associated to a well-constrained chronology over the Holocene period allows us to understand the respective impacts of both climate and human on the evolution of Lake La Thuile environment. Five major phases of evolution have been highlighted over this period. From 12 000 to 10 000 yr cal. BP, the vegetation is developing with the onset of hardwood species and the disappearance of Pinus. From 10 000 to 4500 yr cal. BP the warmer climatic conditions of the middle of the Holocene allows the forest to densify and the very low sedimentation rate indicates that the forest stabilizes slopes and prevents from the erosion on the watershed. The climate cooling of the Neoglacial period triggers a first erosive phase with a decreasing of the forest around 3300 cal. BP. Human settlements are suggested at La Thuile from 2500 yr cal. BP by palynological evidence of anthropic taxa. The triggered clearing is accompanied by a second erosive phase related to anthropic activities during the Roman period. Erosion intensified from 1600 cal. BP in a third erosive phase corresponding to agriculture intensification during the Middle Ages. At the end of the Middle Ages, human footprint seems to decrease but the reason of this change is not resolved between social determination or/and climate forcing. These three erosive phases may have completely changed the catchment behavior until the agricultural abandonment in the middle of the 20th century. Lake La Thuile sedimentary infill shows a landscape evolution first controlled by climate and progressively, since 2500 years ago, human activities came to superimpose. The role of human seems to be more important with abrupt and maybe irreversible modifications of the landscape.

Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and action

PubMed Central

Buizer, James; Jacobs, Katharine; Cash, David

2016-01-01

This paper discusses the evolution of scientific and social understanding that has led to the development of knowledge systems supporting the application of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, including the development of successful efforts to connect climate predictions with sectoral applications and actions “on the ground”. The evolution of “boundary-spanning” activities to connect science and decisionmaking is then discussed, setting the stage for a report of outcomes from an international workshop comprised of producers, translators, and users of climate predictions. The workshop, which focused on identifying critical boundary-spanning features of successful boundary organizations, included participants from Australia, Hawaii, and the Pacific Islands, the US Pacific Northwest, and the state of Ceará in northwestern Brazil. Workshop participants agreed that boundary organizations have multiple roles including those of information broker, convenor of forums for engagement, translator of scientific information, arbiter of access to knowledge, and exemplar of adaptive behavior. Through these roles, boundary organizations will ensure the stability of the knowledge system in a changing political, economic, and climatic context. The international examples reviewed in this workshop demonstrated an interesting case of convergent evolution, where organizations that were very different in origin evolved toward similar structures and individuals engaged in them had similar experiences to share. These examples provide evidence that boundary organizations and boundary-spanners fill some social/institutional roles that are independent of culture. PMID:20133668

Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and action.

PubMed

Buizer, James; Jacobs, Katharine; Cash, David

2016-04-26

This paper discusses the evolution of scientific and social understanding that has led to the development of knowledge systems supporting the application of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, including the development of successful efforts to connect climate predictions with sectoral applications and actions "on the ground". The evolution of "boundary-spanning" activities to connect science and decisionmaking is then discussed, setting the stage for a report of outcomes from an international workshop comprised of producers, translators, and users of climate predictions. The workshop, which focused on identifying critical boundary-spanning features of successful boundary organizations, included participants from Australia, Hawaii, and the Pacific Islands, the US Pacific Northwest, and the state of Ceará in northwestern Brazil. Workshop participants agreed that boundary organizations have multiple roles including those of information broker, convenor of forums for engagement, translator of scientific information, arbiter of access to knowledge, and exemplar of adaptive behavior. Through these roles, boundary organizations will ensure the stability of the knowledge system in a changing political, economic, and climatic context. The international examples reviewed in this workshop demonstrated an interesting case of convergent evolution, where organizations that were very different in origin evolved toward similar structures and individuals engaged in them had similar experiences to share. These examples provide evidence that boundary organizations and boundary-spanners fill some social/institutional roles that are independent of culture.

Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, I.; Vakulenko, S. A.; Golden, K. M.

2015-05-01

Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo - a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point - an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice-albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.

Defending climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-01-01

The National Center for Science Education (NCSE), which has long been in the lead in defending the teaching of evolution in public schools, has expanded its core mission to include defending climate science, the organization announced in January. “We consider climate change a critical issue in our own mission to protect the integrity of science education,” said NSCE executive director Eugenie Scott. “Climate affects everyone, and the decisions we make today will affect generations to come. We need to teach kids now about the realities of global warming and climate change so that they're prepared to make informed, intelligent decisions in the future.”

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

2008-11-13

Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

A spring forward for hominin evolution in East Africa.

PubMed

Cuthbert, Mark O; Ashley, Gail M

2014-01-01

Groundwater is essential to modern human survival during drought periods. There is also growing geological evidence of springs associated with stone tools and hominin fossils in the East African Rift System (EARS) during a critical period for hominin evolution (from 1.8 Ma). However it is not known how vulnerable these springs may have been to climate variability and whether groundwater availability may have played a part in human evolution. Recent interdisciplinary research at Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, has documented climate fluctuations attributable to astronomic forcing and the presence of paleosprings directly associated with archaeological sites. Using palaeogeological reconstruction and groundwater modelling of the Olduvai Gorge paleo-catchment, we show how spring discharge was likely linked to East African climate variability of annual to Milankovitch cycle timescales. Under decadal to centennial timescales, spring flow would have been relatively invariant providing good water resource resilience through long droughts. For multi-millennial periods, modelled spring flows lag groundwater recharge by 100 s to 1000 years. The lag creates long buffer periods allowing hominins to adapt to new habitats as potable surface water from rivers or lakes became increasingly scarce. Localised groundwater systems are likely to have been widespread within the EARS providing refugia and intense competition during dry periods, thus being an important factor in natural selection and evolution, as well as a vital resource during hominin dispersal within and out of Africa.

Shifts in Climate Foster Exceptional Opportunities for Species Radiation: The Case of South African Geraniums

PubMed Central

Martínez-Cabrera, Hugo I.; Peres-Neto, Pedro R.

2013-01-01

Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP) gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift) and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot. PMID:24358250

The influence of climatic niche preferences on the population genetic structure of a mistletoe species complex.

PubMed

Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; González, Clementina; González-Rodríguez, Antonio; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2017-06-01

The prevalent view on genetic structuring in parasitic plants is that host-race formation is caused by varying degrees of host specificity. However, the relative importance of ecological niche divergence and host specificity to population differentiation remains poorly understood. We evaluated the factors associated with population differentiation in mistletoes of the Psittacanthus schiedeanus complex (Loranthaceae) in Mexico. We used genetic data from chloroplast sequences and nuclear microsatellites to study population genetic structure and tested its association with host preferences and climatic niche variables. Pairwise genetic differentiation was associated with environmental and host preferences, independent of geography. However, environmental predictors appeared to be more important than host preferences to explain genetic structure, supporting the hypothesis that the occurrence of the parasite is largely determined by its own climatic niche and, to a lesser degree, by host specificity. Genetic structure is significant within this mistletoe species complex, but the processes associated with this structure appear to be more complex than previously thought. Although host specificity was not supported as the major determinant of population differentiation, we consider this to be part of a more comprehensive ecological model of mistletoe host-race formation that incorporates the effects of climatic niche evolution. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

PubMed

Zheng, Xiaohui; Lian, Yi; Wang, Qiguang

2018-01-01

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system's predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

Solar radiation and landscape evolution: co-evolution of topography, vegetation, and erosion rates in a semi-arid ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Yetemen, Omer

2016-04-01

In this study CHILD landscape evolution model (LEM) is used to study the role of solar radiation on the co-evolution of landscape morphology, vegetation patterns, and erosion rates in a central New Mexico catchment. In the study site north facing slopes (NFS) are characterized by steep diffusion-dominated planar hillslopes covered by co-exiting juniper pine and grass vegetation. South facing slopes (SFS) are characterized by shallow slopes and covered by sparse shrub vegetation. Measured short-term and Holocene-averaged erosion rates show higher soil loss on SFS than NFS. In this study CHILD LEM is first confirmed with ecohydrologic field data and used to systematically examine the co-evolution of topography, vegetation pattern, and erosion rates. Aspect- and network-control are identified as the two main topographic drivers of soil moisture and vegetation organization on the landscape. Landscape-scale and long-term implications of solar radiation driven ecohdrologic patterns emerged in modeled landscape: NFS supported denser vegetation cover and became steeper and planar, while on SFS vegetation grew sparser and slopes declined with more fluvial activity. At the landscape scale, these differential erosion processes led to asymmetric development of catchment forms, consistent with regional observations. While the general patterns of vegetation and topography were reproduced by the model using a stationary representation of the current climate, the observed differential Holocene erosion rates were captured by the model only when cyclic climate is used. This suggests sensitivity of Holocene erosion rates to long-term climate fluctuations.

Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Petrova, Desislava; García-Díez, Markel; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J; Mejía, Raúl; Regato, Mary; Rodó, Xavier

2017-07-01

El Niño and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika. In this study, we used climate forecasts to predict the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in the city of Machala, following one of the strongest El Niño events on record. We incorporated precipitation, minimum temperature, and Niño3·4 index forecasts in a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model to predict dengue incidence. The model was initiated on Jan 1, 2016, producing monthly dengue forecasts until November, 2016. We accounted for misreporting of dengue due to the introduction of chikungunya in 2015, by using active surveillance data to correct reported dengue case data from passive surveillance records. We then evaluated the forecast retrospectively with available epidemiological information. The predictions correctly forecast an early peak in dengue incidence in March, 2016, with a 90% chance of exceeding the mean dengue incidence for the previous 5 years. Accounting for the proportion of chikungunya cases that had been incorrectly recorded as dengue in 2015 improved the prediction of the magnitude of dengue incidence in 2016. This dengue prediction framework, which uses seasonal climate and El Niño forecasts, allows a prediction to be made at the start of the year for the entire dengue season. Combining active surveillance data with routine dengue reports improved not only model fit and performance, but also the accuracy of benchmark estimates based on historical seasonal averages. This study advances the state-of-the-art of climate services for the health sector, by showing the potential value of incorporating climate information in the public health decision-making process in Ecuador. European Union FP7, Royal Society, and National Science Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evidence for adaptive evolution of low-temperature stress response genes in a Pooideae grass ancestor.

PubMed

Vigeland, Magnus D; Spannagl, Manuel; Asp, Torben; Paina, Cristiana; Rudi, Heidi; Rognli, Odd-Arne; Fjellheim, Siri; Sandve, Simen R

2013-09-01

Adaptation to temperate environments is common in the grass subfamily Pooideae, suggesting an ancestral origin of cold climate adaptation. Here, we investigated substitution rates of genes involved in low-temperature-induced (LTI) stress responses to test the hypothesis that adaptive molecular evolution of LTI pathway genes was important for Pooideae evolution. Substitution rates and signatures of positive selection were analyzed using 4330 gene trees including three warm climate-adapted species (maize (Zea mays), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), and rice (Oryza sativa)) and five temperate Pooideae species (Brachypodium distachyon, wheat (Triticum aestivum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), Lolium perenne and Festuca pratensis). Nonsynonymous substitution rate differences between Pooideae and warm habitat-adapted species were elevated in LTI trees compared with all trees. Furthermore, signatures of positive selection were significantly stronger in LTI trees after the rice and Pooideae split but before the Brachypodium divergence (P < 0.05). Genome-wide heterogeneity in substitution rates was also observed, reflecting divergent genome evolution processes within these grasses. Our results provide evidence for a link between adaptation to cold habitats and adaptive evolution of LTI stress responses in early Pooideae evolution and shed light on a poorly understood chapter in the evolutionary history of some of the world's most important temperate crops. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Agriculture and groundwater nitrate contamination in the Seine basin. The STICS-MODCOU modelling chain.

PubMed

Ledoux, E; Gomez, E; Monget, J M; Viavattene, C; Viennot, P; Ducharne, A; Benoit, M; Mignolet, C; Schott, C; Mary, B

2007-04-01

A software package is presented here to predict the fate of nitrogen fertilizers and the transport of nitrate from the rooting zone of agricultural areas to surface water and groundwater in the Seine basin, taking into account the long residence times of water and nitrate in the unsaturated and aquifer systems. Information on pedological characteristics, land use and farming practices is used to determine the spatial units to be considered. These data are converted into input data for the crop model STICS which simulates the water and nitrogen balances in the soil-plant system with a daily time-step. A spatial application of STICS has been derived at the catchment scale which computes the water and nitrate fluxes at the bottom of the rooting zone. These fluxes are integrated into a surface and groundwater coupled model MODCOU which calculates the daily water balance in the hydrological system, the flow in the rivers and the piezometric variations in the aquifers, using standard climatic data (rainfall, PET). The transport of nitrate and the evolution of nitrate contamination in groundwater and to rivers is computed by the model NEWSAM. This modelling chain is a valuable tool to predict the evolution of crop productivity and nitrate contamination according to various scenarios modifying farming practices and/or climatic changes. Data for the period 1970-2000 are used to simulate the past evolution of nitrogen contamination. The method has been validated using available data bases of nitrate concentrations in the three main aquifers of the Paris basin (Oligocene, Eocene and chalk). The approach has then been used to predict the future evolution of nitrogen contamination up to 2015. A statistical approach allowed estimating the probability of transgression of different concentration thresholds in various areas in the basin. The model is also used to evaluate the cost of the damage resulting of the treatment of drinking water at the scale of a groundwater management unit in the Seine river basin.

Geographical Patterns in Cyanobacteria Distribution: Climate Influence at Regional Scale

PubMed Central

Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-01

Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies. PMID:24476711

Evolutionary and plastic responses of freshwater invertebrates to climate change: realized patterns and future potential.

PubMed

Stoks, Robby; Geerts, Aurora N; De Meester, Luc

2014-01-01

We integrated the evidence for evolutionary and plastic trait changes in situ in response to climate change in freshwater invertebrates (aquatic insects and zooplankton). The synthesis on the trait changes in response to the expected reductions in hydroperiod and increases in salinity indicated little evidence for adaptive, plastic, and genetic trait changes and for local adaptation. With respect to responses to temperature, there are many studies on temporal trait changes in phenology and body size in the wild that are believed to be driven by temperature increases, but there is a general lack of rigorous demonstration whether these trait changes are genetically based, adaptive, and causally driven by climate change. Current proof for genetic trait changes under climate change in freshwater invertebrates stems from a limited set of common garden experiments replicated in time. Experimental thermal evolution experiments and common garden warming experiments associated with space-for-time substitutions along latitudinal gradients indicate that besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity are likely to contribute to the observed phenotypic changes under climate change in aquatic invertebrates. Apart from plastic and genetic thermal adjustments, also genetic photoperiod adjustments are widespread and may even dominate the observed phenological shifts.

Environmental stability and the evolution of cooperative breeding in hornbills

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Juan-Carlos T.; Sheldon, Ben C.; Tobias, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

Reproductive cooperation in social animals has been the focus of intensive research, yet the role of environmental factors in promoting such cooperation remains uncertain. A recent global analysis suggested that cooperative breeding in birds is a ‘bet-hedging’ strategy associated with climatic uncertainty, but it is unclear whether this mechanism applies generally or is restricted to the insectivorous passerines that predominate as cooperative breeders at the global scale. Here, we use a phylogenetic framework to assess the effect of climate on the evolution of cooperation in hornbills (Bucerotidae), an avian family characterized by frugivory and carnivory. We show that, in contrast to the global pattern, cooperative reproduction is positively associated with both inter- and intra-annual climatic stability. This reversed relationship implies that hornbills are relatively insensitive to climatic fluctuations, perhaps because of their dietary niche or increased body mass, both of which may remove the need for bet-hedging. We conclude that the relationship between climatic variability and cooperative breeding is inconsistent across taxa, and potentially mediated by life-history variation. These findings help to explain the mixed results of previous studies and highlight the likely shortcomings of global datasets inherently biased towards particular categories. PMID:23926149

Heliophysics 3 Volume Set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L.

2010-11-01

Volume 1: Preface; 1. Prologue Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Introduction to heliophysics Thomas J. Bogdan; 3. Creation and destruction of magnetic field Matthias Rempel; 4. Magnetic field topology Dana W. Longcope; 5. Magnetic reconnection Terry G. Forbes; 6. Structures of the magnetic field Mark B. Moldwin, George L. Siscoe and Carolus J. Schrijver; 7. Turbulence in space plasmas Charles W. Smith; 8. The solar atmosphere Viggo H. Hansteen; 9. Stellar winds and magnetic fields Viggo H. Hansteen; 10. Fundamentals of planetary magnetospheres Vytenis M. Vasyliūnas; 11. Solar-wind magnetosphere coupling: an MHD perspective Frank R. Toffoletto and George L. Siscoe; 12. On the ionosphere and chromosphere Tim Fuller-Rowell and Carolus J. Schrijver; 13. Comparative planetary environments Frances Bagenal; Bibliography; Index. Volume 2: Preface; 1. Perspective on heliophysics George L. Siscoe and Carolus J. Schrijver; 2. Introduction to space storms and radiation Sten Odenwald; 3. In-situ detection of energetic particles George Gloeckler; 4. Radiative signatures of energetic particles Tim Bastian; 5. Observations of solar and stellar eruptions, flares, and jets Hugh Hudson; 6. Models of coronal mass ejections and flares Terry Forbes; 7. Shocks in heliophysics Merav Opher; 8. Particle acceleration in shocks Dietmar Krauss-Varban; 9. Energetic particle transport Joe Giacalone; 10. Energy conversion in planetary magnetospheres Vytenis Vasyliūnas; 11. Energization of trapped particles Janet Green; 12. Flares, CMEs, and atmospheric responses Tim Fuller-Rowell and Stanley C. Solomon; 13. Energetic particles and manned spaceflight 358 Stephen Guetersloh and Neal Zapp; 14. Energetic particles and technology Alan Tribble; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index. Volume 3: Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index.

Heliophysics 3 Volume Paperback Set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L.

2013-03-01

Volume 1: Preface; 1. Prologue Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Introduction to heliophysics Thomas J. Bogdan; 3. Creation and destruction of magnetic field Matthias Rempel; 4. Magnetic field topology Dana W. Longcope; 5. Magnetic reconnection Terry G. Forbes; 6. Structures of the magnetic field Mark B. Moldwin, George L. Siscoe and Carolus J. Schrijver; 7. Turbulence in space plasmas Charles W. Smith; 8. The solar atmosphere Viggo H. Hansteen; 9. Stellar winds and magnetic fields Viggo H. Hansteen; 10. Fundamentals of planetary magnetospheres Vytenis M. Vasyliunas; 11. Solar-wind magnetosphere coupling: an MHD perspective Frank R. Toffoletto and George L. Siscoe; 12. On the ionosphere and chromosphere Tim Fuller-Rowell and Carolus J. Schrijver; 13. Comparative planetary environments Frances Bagenal; Bibliography; Index. Volume 2: Preface; 1. Perspective on heliophysics George L. Siscoe and Carolus J. Schrijver; 2. Introduction to space storms and radiation Sten Odenwald; 3. In-situ detection of energetic particles George Gloeckler; 4. Radiative signatures of energetic particles Tim Bastian; 5. Observations of solar and stellar eruptions, flares, and jets Hugh Hudson; 6. Models of coronal mass ejections and flares Terry Forbes; 7. Shocks in heliophysics Merav Opher; 8. Particle acceleration in shocks Dietmar Krauss-Varban; 9. Energetic particle transport Joe Giacalone; 10. Energy conversion in planetary magnetospheres Vytenis Vasyliunas; 11. Energization of trapped particles Janet Green; 12. Flares, CMEs, and atmospheric responses Tim Fuller-Rowell and Stanley C. Solomon; 13. Energetic particles and manned spaceflight Stephen Guetersloh and Neal Zapp; 14. Energetic particles and technology Alan Tribble; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index. Volume 3: Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index.

Response of waves and coastline evolution to climate variability off the Niger Delta coast during the past 110 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Ma, Yanyan; Ding, Dong; Xu, Jishang; Li, Pin; Yang, Jichao

2016-08-01

River deltas, low-lying landforms that host critical economic infrastructures and diverse ecosystems as well as high concentrations of human population, are highly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In order to understand the wave climate, their potential changes and implication on coastline evolution for environment monitoring and sustainable management of the Niger Delta in the Gulf of Guinea, an investigation was carried out based on offshore wave statistics of an 110-year time series (1900-2010) dataset obtained from the ECMWF ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis. Results of multivariate regression analyses indicate that interannual mean values of Hs and Tm trends tended to increase over time, especially in the western part of the delta coast, so that they are presently (1980 and 2010) up to 264 mm (300%) and 0.32 s (22%), respectively, higher than 80 years (1900-1930) ago. The maximum directions of the wave have become more westerly (southward) than southerly (westward) by up to 2° (33%) and the mean longshore sediment transport rate has increased by more than 8% over the last 80 years. The linear regression analysis for shoreline changes from 1987 to 2013 shows an erosional trend at the western part of the delta and accretional trends towards eastern part. The relationship between wave climate of the study area and atmospheric circulation using Pearson's correlation shows that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA) and El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index explain significant proportion of the seasonal and annual wave variabilities compared to other indices. But it is most likely that the combination of these climatic indices acting together or separately constitutes a powerful and effective mechanism responsible for much of the variability of the offshore Niger Delta wave climate. The study concludes that changing wave climate off the Niger Delta has strong implications on the delta coastline changes. However, other processes (such as fluvial discharge variability due climatic variability and anthropogenic effect) may be acting concomitantly with changes in wave regime and associated littoral transport to influence shoreline evolution along the Niger Delta coast.

Hydrologic and Agent-based Modelling of Hydro-refugia in East Africa, Insights into the Importance of Water Resources in Hominin Evolution and Dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashley, G. M.; Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Reynolds, S. R.; Bennett, M. R.; Newton, A. C.; McCormack, C. J.

2017-12-01

Hominin evolution and climate variability have often been linked because of the apparent coincidence of climate fluctuations and speciation or extinctions, although the cause and effect of climate on natural selection is not clear. Climate in the EARS (East African Rift System) where most hominin first occurrences are located experienced an overall drying over the last 7 myr. Superimposed on this trend, Milankovitch cycles generated wet-dry precession cycles ( 23 kyr) that changed both water and food resource availability. During dry periods, lakes became more alkaline and rivers ephemeral but, groundwater, buffered from surface climate effects, remained a potential resource during the driest of times. The possibility of widespread groundwater sources hydro-refugia, such as springs, wetlands and groundwater-fed perennial streams has received little attention with respect to the paleoenvironmental context of hominin evolution or dispersal. We demonstrate that hydrogeological modelling of the modern landscape in East Africa coupled with ABM (agent-based modelling) of hominin movement yields new insight into potential correlates of hominin survival and dispersal. Digitized hydrological mapping of present day rivers, lakes and springs along the EARS (2000 km) from northern Tanzania to Ethiopia provided the modelling framework. Present day conditions are considered analogous to past dry periods; wet period conditions are an expanded hydrologic network including all surface water bodies. Our focus was on perennial springs discharging at 1,000 m3/y (volume to sustain a small wetland). 450 such springs occur and were found to be significantly controlled by geology, not just climate. The ABM was designed to determine if it was possible for humans to walk between hydro-refugia in 3 days. Four climate scenarios were run on ABM: wet, wet-to-dry, dry and dry-to-wet. During dry periods our results suggest that groundwater availability would have been critical to supporting isolated networks of hydro-refugia when potable surface water was scarce. As the climate got wetter modeled cross-rift dispersal potentially occurred before movement along the rift. The presence of groundwater hydro-refugia may help explain how some patterns of taxonomic diversity in hominins may have developed.

Comparison of conservation metrics in a case study of lemurs.

PubMed

Gudde, Renske; Venditti, Chris

2016-12-01

Conservation planning is important to protect species from going extinct now that natural habitats are decreasing owing to human activity and climate change. However, there is considerable controversy in choosing appropriate metrics to weigh the value of species and geographic regions. For example, the added value of phylogenetic conservation-selection criteria remains disputed because high correlations between them and the nonphylogenetic criteria of species richness have been reported. We evaluated the commonly used conservation metrics species richness, endemism, phylogenetic diversity (PD), and phylogenetic endemism (PE) in a case study on lemurs of Madagascar. This enabled us to identify the conservation target of each metric and consider how they may be used in future conservation planning. We also devised a novel metric that uses a phylogeny scaled according to the rate of phenotypic evolution as a proxy for a species' ability to adapt to change. High rates of evolution may indicate generalization or specialization. Both specialization and low rates of evolution may result in an inability to adapt to changing environments. We examined conservation priorities by using the inverse of the rate of body mass evolution to account for species with low rates of evolution. In line with previous work, we found high correlations among species richness and PD (r = 0.96), and endemism and PE (r = 0.82) in Malagasy lemurs. Phylogenetic endemism in combination with rates of evolution and their inverse prioritized grid cells containing highly endemic and specialized lemurs at risk of extinction, such as Avahi occidentalis and Lepilemur edwardsi, 2 endangered lemurs with high rates of phenotypic evolution and low-quality diets, and Hapalemur aureus, a critically endangered species with a low rate of body mass evolution and a diet consisting of very high doses of cyanide. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, J.; Cazenave, A. A.; Ablain, M.; Gilles, G.; Johannessen, J. A.; Scharffenberg, M. G.; Timms, G.; Andersen, O. B.; Cipollini, P.; Roca, M.; Rudenko, S.; Fernandes, J.; Balmaseda, M.; Quartly, G.; Fenoglio Marc, L.; Meyssignac, B.; Benveniste, J.; Ambrozio, A.; Restano, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected and a first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated with the best algorithms and altimeter standards. This record (1993-2014) has been validated by the climate research community. Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which will be distributed in Autumn 2016. New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat and GFO). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic). A significant improvement is expected compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

[Evolution of maize climate productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Li, Xiu Fen; Zhao, Hui Ying; Zhu, Hai Xia; Wang, Ping; Wang, Qiu Jing; Wang, Ming; Li, Yu Guang

2016-08-01

Under the background of climate change, revealing the change trend and spatial diffe-rence of maize climate productivity in-depth and understanding the regularity of maize climatic resources utilization can provide scientific basis for the macro-decision of agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province. Based on the 1981-2014 meteorological data of 72 weather stations and the corresponding maize yield data in Heilongjiang Province, by the methods of step by step revisal, spatial interpolation and linear trend analysis, this paper studied the photosynthetic productivity (PP), light-temperature productivity (LTP), and climatic productivity (CP) of spring maize, and their temporal and spatial variation characteristics, main influencing factors and light energy utilization efficiency, and evaluated the maize climate productivities under different climate scenarios in the future. The results showed that during the study period, the mean PP, LTP and CP in Heilongjiang Province were 26558, 19953, 18742 kg·hm -2 , respectively. Maize PP, LTP and CP were high in plains and low in mountains, and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. PP, LTP and CP presented significantly increasing trends, and the increase rates were 378, 723 and 560 kg·hm -2 ·(10 a) -1 , respectively. The increase of radiation and temperature had positive effect on maize production in Heilongjiang Province. The potential productivity of maize presented significant response to climate change. The decrease of solar radiation led to the decline of PP in western Songnen Plain, but the increased temperature compensated the negative effect of solar radiation, so the downward trend of LTP was slowed. The response to climate warming was particularly evident in North and East, and LTP was significantly increased, which was sensitive to the change of precipitation in southwest of Songnen Plain and part of Sanjiang Plain. The average ratio of maize actual yield to its climate productivity was only 24.1%, there was still 75.9% to be developed. In the future, the warm and wet climate would benefit the improvement of maize climate productivity, while the cold and dry climate would make an adverse impact.

[New infectious diseases in Finland--caused by climate change?].

PubMed

Vapalahti, Olli; Ruuhela, Reija; Henttonen, Heikki

2012-01-01

Although the appearance and spreading of most new infectious diseases are likely to be due to globalization or socio-economic changes, the occurrence of tick-, insect- and rodent-borne infections is at least partially dependent on climate variability and change. Climate influences the distribution and life cycle of vectors of arthropod-borne viruses as well as viral evolution and efficacy of transmission. The natural circulation of many pathogens and the development of epidemics are dependent on complex ecological factors, such as biodiversity and predator-prey cycles that in turn are indirectly linked to climate.

The mineralogic evolution of the Martian surface through time: Implications from chemical reaction path modeling studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plumlee, G. S.; Ridley, W. I.; Debraal, J. D.; Reed, M. H.

1993-01-01

Chemical reaction path calculations were used to model the minerals that might have formed at or near the Martian surface as a result of volcano or meteorite impact driven hydrothermal systems; weathering at the Martian surface during an early warm, wet climate; and near-zero or sub-zero C brine-regolith reactions in the current cold climate. Although the chemical reaction path calculations carried out do not define the exact mineralogical evolution of the Martian surface over time, they do place valuable geochemical constraints on the types of minerals that formed from an aqueous phase under various surficial and geochemically complex conditions.

Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Weis, Arthur E

2009-11-01

Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution.

Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, R. G.; Howard, K. W. F.

1998-11-01

A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

Controversy in Biology Classrooms—Citizen Science Approaches to Evolution and Applications to Climate Change Discussions

PubMed Central

Yoho, Rachel A.; Vanmali, Binaben H.

2016-01-01

The biological sciences encompass topics considered controversial by the American public, such as evolution and climate change. We believe that the development of climate change education in the biology classroom is better informed by an understanding of the history of the teaching of evolution. A common goal for science educators should be to engender a greater respect for and appreciation of science among students while teaching specific content knowledge. Citizen science has emerged as a viable yet underdeveloped method for engaging students of all ages in key scientific issues that impact society through authentic data-driven scientific research. Where successful, citizen science may open avenues of communication and engagement with the scientific process that would otherwise be more difficult to achieve. Citizen science projects demonstrate versatility in education and the ability to test hypotheses by collecting large amounts of often publishable data. We find a great possibility for science education research in the incorporation of citizen science projects in curriculum, especially with respect to “hot topics” of socioscientific debate based on our review of the findings of other authors. Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education PMID:27047604

Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

2016-01-01

Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153

Evolution in response to climate change: in pursuit of the missing evidence.

PubMed

Merilä, Juha

2012-09-01

Climate change is imposing intensified and novel selection pressures on organisms by altering abiotic and biotic environmental conditions on Earth, but studies demonstrating genetic adaptation to climate change mediated selection are still scarce. Evidence is accumulating to indicate that both genetic and ecological constrains may often limit populations' abilities to adapt to large scale effects of climate warming. These constraints may predispose many organisms to respond to climate change with range shifts and phenotypic plasticity, rather than through evolutionary adaptation. In general, broad conclusions about the role of evolutionary adaptation in mitigating climate change induced fitness loss in the wild are as yet difficult to make. Copyright © 2012 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years.

PubMed

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

2016-06-22

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection.

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years

PubMed Central

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

2016-01-01

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection. PMID:27328616

Model of climate evolution based on continental drift and polar wandering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donn, W. L.; Shaw, D. M.

1977-01-01

The thermodynamic meteorologic model of Adem is used to trace the evolution of climate from Triassic to present time by applying it to changing geography as described by continental drift and polar wandering. Results show that the gross changes of climate in the Northern Hemisphere can be fully explained by the strong cooling in high latitudes as continents moved poleward. High-latitude mean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere dropped below the freezing point 10 to 15 m.y. ago, thereby accounting for the late Cenozoic glacial age. Computed meridional temperature gradients for the Northern Hemisphere steepened from 20 to 40 C over the 200-m.y. period, an effect caused primarily by the high-latitude temperature decrease. The primary result of the work is that the cooling that has occurred since the warm Mesozoic period and has culminated in glaciation is explainable wholly by terrestrial processes.

A kinematic model for the development of the Afar Depression and its paleogeographic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redfield, T. F.; Wheeler, W. H.; Often, M.

2003-11-01

The Afar Depression is a highly extended region of continental to transitional oceanic crust lying at the junction of the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Ethiopian rifts. We analyze the evolution of the Afar crust using plate kinematics and published crustal models to constrain the temporal and volumetric evolution of the rift basin. Our reconstruction constrains the regional-scale initial 3D geometry and subsequent extension and is well calibrated at the onset of rifting (˜20 Ma) and from the time of earliest documented sea-floor spreading anomalies (˜6 Ma Red Sea; ˜10 Ma Gulf of Aden). It also suggests the Danakil block is a highly extended body, having undergone between ˜200% and ˜400% stretch. Syn-rift sedimentary and magmatic additions to the crust are taken from the literature. Our analysis reveals a discrepancy: either the base of the crust has not been properly imaged, or a (plume-related?) process has somehow caused bulk removal of crustal material since extension began. Inferring subsidence history from thermal modeling and flexural considerations, we conclude subsidence in Afar was virtually complete by Mid Pliocene time. Our analysis contradicts interpretations of late (post 3 Ma) large (˜2 km) subsidence of the Hadar area near the Ethiopian Plateau, suggesting paleoclimatic data record regional, not local, climate change. Tectonic reconstruction (supported by paleontologic and isotopic data) suggests that a land bridge connected Africa and Arabia, via Danakil, up to the Early to Middle Pliocene. The temporal constraints on land bridge and escarpment morphology constrain Afar paleogeography, climate, and faunal migration routes. These constraints (particularly the development of geographic isolation) are fundamentally important for models evaluating and interpreting biologic evolution in the Afar, including speciation and human origins.

Convective rain rates and their evolution during storms in a semiarid climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Miller, J. R., Jr.; Ionescu-Niscov, S.

1984-01-01

The semiarid climate of the U.S. northern High Plains region has been studied with respect to rain rates and their evolution during summertime convective storms, using radar data from a total of 750 radar echo clusters. Analysis of this data suggests that the average rain rate R among storms is in a first approximation independent of the total rain volume, if the entire storm duration is considered in the averaging process. R primarily depends on the reflectivity threshold considered in calculating the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the storm. R evolution during storms is analyzed by dividing each storm lifetime into 10 min, 1, 2, and 4 hours, as well as growing and decaying periods. The value of R remained independent of the total rain volume when the growing or decaying periods of storms were considered separately.

Phenology research for natural resource management in the United States.

PubMed

Enquist, Carolyn A F; Kellermann, Jherime L; Gerst, Katharine L; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J

2014-05-01

Natural resource professionals in the United States recognize that climate-induced changes in phenology can substantially affect resource management. This is reflected in national climate change response plans recently released by major resource agencies. However, managers on-the-ground are often unclear about how to use phenological information to inform their management practices. Until recently, this was at least partially due to the lack of broad-based, standardized phenology data collection across taxa and geographic regions. Such efforts are now underway, albeit in very early stages. Nonetheless, a major hurdle still exists: phenology-linked climate change research has focused more on describing broad ecological changes rather than making direct connections to local to regional management concerns. To help researchers better design relevant research for use in conservation and management decision-making processes, we describe phenology-related research topics that facilitate "actionable" science. Examples include research on evolution and phenotypic plasticity related to vulnerability, the demographic consequences of trophic mismatch, the role of invasive species, and building robust ecological forecast models. Such efforts will increase phenology literacy among on-the-ground resource managers and provide information relevant for short- and long-term decision-making, particularly as related to climate response planning and implementing climate-informed monitoring in the context of adaptive management. In sum, we argue that phenological information is a crucial component of the resource management toolbox that facilitates identification and evaluation of strategies that will reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change. Management-savvy researchers can play an important role in reaching this goal.

The socio-environmental history of the Peloponnese during the Holocene: Towards an integrated understanding of the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiberg, Erika; Unkel, Ingmar; Kouli, Katerina; Holmgren, Karin; Avramidis, Pavlos; Bonnier, Anton; Dibble, Flint; Finné, Martin; Izdebski, Adam; Katrantsiotis, Christos; Stocker, Sharon R.; Andwinge, Maria; Baika, Kalliopi; Boyd, Meighan; Heymann, Christian

2016-03-01

Published archaeological, palaeoenvironmental, and palaeoclimatic data from the Peloponnese in Greece are compiled, discussed and evaluated in order to analyse the interactions between humans and the environment over the last 9000 years. Our study indicates that the number of human settlements found scattered over the peninsula have quadrupled from the prehistoric to historical periods and that this evolution occurred over periods of climate change and seismo-tectonic activity. We show that societal development occurs both during periods of harsh as well as favourable climatic conditions. At some times, some settlements develop while others decline. Well-known climate events such as the 4.2 ka and 3.2 ka events are recognizable in some of the palaeoclimatic records and a regional decline in the number and sizes of settlements occurs roughly at the same time, but their precise chronological fit with the archaeological record remains uncertain. Local socio-political processes were probably always the key drivers behind the diverse strategies that human societies took in times of changing climate. The study thus reveals considerable chronological parallels between societal development and palaeoenvironmental records, but also demonstrates the ambiguities in these correspondences and, in doing so, highlights some of the challenges that will face future interdisciplinary projects. We suggest that there can be no general association made between societal expansion phases and periods of advantageous climate. We also propose that the relevance of climatic and environmental regionality, as well as any potential impacts of seismo-tectonics on societal development, need to be part of the interpretative frameworks.

Comparative climate response of using three different aerosol geoengineering techniques to transfer from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muri, Helene; Tjiputra, Jerry; Grini, Alf; Helge Otterå, Odd; Lauvset, Siv K.; Schulz, Michael; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón

2017-04-01

Considering the ambitious climate targets of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C, with aspirations of even 1.5°C, questions regarding how to achieve this arise. Geoengineering has been proposed as potential tool in such efforts to minimise global harm from anthropogenic climate change. An Earth system model is here used to evaluate the feasibility of transferring from the high CO2 concentrations scenario RCP8.5 to a middle-of-road scenario, RCP4.5, using geoengineering. Three different atmospheric aerosol - based geoengineering techniques are considered: stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI), marine sky brightening (MSB) and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT). We furthermore assess the climate response to these three methods. The climate of the geoengineered cases are for the most much closer to that of RCP4.5 than RCP8.5 and many anthropogenic global warming symptoms are alleviated. All three techniques result in comparatively the same global temperature evolution. Though there are some notable differences in other climate variables due to the nature of the forcings applied. CCT acts mainly on the longwave part of the radiation budget, as opposed to MSB and SAI acting in the shortwave, yielding a difference in the response, particularly for the hydrological cycle. Finally, the effects of a sudden cessation of large-scale aerosol geoengineering deployment is explored. The climate very rapidly, within few years, reverts back to the path of RCP8.5 post-termination, urging the need for simultaneous mitigation and possibly carbon removal from the atmosphere, even if one would dare to enter into any such form of geoengineering.

Climate and geochemistry as drivers of eucalypt diversification in Australia.

PubMed

Bui, E N; Thornhill, A H; González-Orozco, C E; Knerr, N; Miller, J T

2017-05-01

Eucalypts cover most of Australia. Here, we investigate the relative contribution of climate and geochemistry to the distribution and diversity of eucalypts. Using geostatistics, we estimate major element concentrations, pH, and electrical conductivity at sites where eucalypts have been recorded. We compare the median predicted geochemistry and reported substrate for individual species that appear associated with extreme conditions; this provides a partial evaluation of the predictions. We generate a site-by-species matrix by aggregating observations to the centroids of 100-km-wide grid cells, calculate diversity indices, and use numerical ecology methods (ordination, variation partitioning) to investigate the ecology of eucalypts and their response to climatic and geochemical gradients. We find that β-diversity coincides with variations in climatic and geochemical patterns. Climate and geochemistry together account for less than half of the variation in eucalypt species assemblages across Australia but for greater than 80% in areas of high species richness. Climate is more important than geochemistry in explaining eucalypts species distribution and change in assemblages across Australia as a whole but there are correlations between the two sets of environmental variables. Many individual eucalypt species and entire taxonomic sections (Aromatica, Longistylus of subgenus Eucalyptus, Dumaria, and Liberivalvae of subgenus Symphyomyrtus) have distributions affected strongly by geochemistry. We conclude that eucalypt diversity is driven by steep geochemical gradients that have arisen as climate patterns have fluctuated over Australia over the Cenozoic, generally aridifying since the Miocene. The diversification of eucalypts across Australia is thus an excellent example of co-evolution of landscapes and biota in space and time and challenges accepted notions of macroecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnin, Florence; Josnin, Jean-Yves; Ravanel, Ludovic; Pergaud, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Deline, Philip

2017-08-01

High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Its degradation has a strong impact on landscape evolution and can trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investigates the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m above sea level in the Mont Blanc massif, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) steady-state conditions to 2100. Simulations are forced with air temperature time series, including two contrasted air temperature scenarios for the 21st century representing possible lower and upper boundaries of future climate change according to the most recent models and climate change scenarios. The 2-D finite element model accounts for heat conduction and latent heat transfers, and the outputs for the current period (2010-2015) are evaluated against borehole temperature measurements and an electrical resistivity transect: permafrost conditions are remarkably well represented. Over the past two decades, permafrost has disappeared on faces with a southerly aspect up to 3300 m a.s.l. and possibly higher. Warm permafrost (i.e. > - 2 °C) has extended up to 3300 and 3850 m a.s.l. in N and S-exposed faces respectively. During the 21st century, warm permafrost is likely to extend at least up to 4300 m a.s.l. on S-exposed rock walls and up to 3850 m a.s.l. depth on the N-exposed faces. In the most pessimistic case, permafrost will disappear on the S-exposed rock walls at a depth of up to 4300 m a.s.l., whereas warm permafrost will extend at a depth of the N faces up to 3850 m a.s.l., but possibly disappearing at such elevation under the influence of a close S face. The results are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is limited by the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects.

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

status of ENSO go to the ENSO Advisory (issued when appropriate) or the latest monthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. More technical information on the global patterns of abnormal precipitation and , J. Climate, 5, 577-593). A general description of a warm (ENSO) episode and its composite evolution

The evaporative demand drought index: Part II – CONUS-wide assessment against common drought indicators

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation, soil moisture, and air temperature are the most commonly used climate variables to monitor drought, however other climatic factors such as solar radiation, wind speed, and specific humidity can be important drivers in the depletion of soil moisture and evolution and persistence of dro...

Westerly jet stream and past millennium climate change in Arid Central Asia simulated by COSMO-CLM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-05-01

This study tackles one of the most debated questions around the evolution of Central Asian climate: the "Puzzle" of moisture changes in Arid Central Asia (ACA) throughout the past millennium. A state-of-the-art Regional Climate Model (RCM) is subsequently employed to investigate four different 31-year time slices of extreme dry and wet spells, chosen according to changes in the driving data, in order to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of the moisture variability in two different climatological epochs: Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). There is a clear regime behavior and bimodality in the westerly Jet phase space throughout the past millennium in ACA. The results indicate that the regime changes during LIA show a moist ACA and a dry East China. During the MCA, the Kazakhstan region shows a stronger response to the westerly jet equatorward shift than during the LIA. The out-of-phase pattern of moisture changes between India and ACA exists during both the LIA and the MCA. However, the pattern is more pronounced during the LIA.

Evolutionary responses to climate change in parasitic systems.

PubMed

Chaianunporn, Thotsapol; Hovestadt, Thomas

2015-08-01

Species may respond to climate change in many ecological and evolutionary ways. In this simulation study, we focus on the concurrent evolution of three traits in response to climate change, namely dispersal probability, temperature tolerance (or niche width), and temperature preference (optimal habitat). More specifically, we consider evolutionary responses in host species involved in different types of interaction, that is parasitism or commensalism, and for low or high costs of a temperature tolerance-fertility trade-off (cost of generalization). We find that host species potentially evolve all three traits simultaneously in response to increasing temperature but that the evolutionary response interacts and may be compensatory depending on the conditions. The evolutionary adjustment of temperature preference is slower in the parasitism than in commensalism scenario. Parasitism, in turn, selects for higher temperature tolerance and increased dispersal. High costs for temperature tolerance (i.e. generalization) restrict evolution of tolerance and thus lead to a faster response in temperature preference than that observed under low costs. These results emphasize the possible role of biotic interactions and the importance of 'multidimensional' evolutionary responses to climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adaptation des systèmes de production agricole au changement climatiqueAdaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seguin, Bernard

2003-06-01

The adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change needs to firstly consider the predictable impact upon vegetal production, using the available knowledge on crop ecophysiology applied for simulating the effects of climate scenarios, including the increase of atmospheric CO 2. The predicted consequences are firstly presented in general terms. They are thereafter detailed for each main type of production in France (annual crops, pastures and perennial crops), taking into account recent observations about the evolution of climate and related consequences on crop phenology (especially fruit trees and vine). They lead to identify the main lines for the adaptation at the level of present cropping systems, considered as geographically stable. However, this level needs to be completed by a second one, corresponding to a possible shift in latitude or altitude, as well as the introduction of new crops. Ultimately, a third level of adaptation will correspond to the evolution of territories and land use, whose determinants will be discussed in the conclusion. To cite this article: B. Seguin, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).

Astronomical forcing, insolation and millennial-scale climate variability: evidence from the North Atlantic Ocean (IODP Expedition 306, Site U1313) during the Early-Middle Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Naafs, David; Barbante, Carlo

2015-04-01

Since the seminal work by Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton (1976), a plethora of studies mostly based on marine sediments collected during DSDP-ODP-IODP Expeditions has demonstrated a correlation between orbital variations and climatic change. However, information on how changes in orbital boundary conditions affected the frequency and amplitude of millennial-scale climate variability is still fragmentary. Here we examine the record of climatic conditions from MIS 23 to 17 (c. 920-670 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to evaluate the climate system's response in the millennial band to known orbitally induced insolation changes. Special emphasis is placed on Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19, an interglacial centred at around 785 ka during which the insolation appears comparable to the current orbital geometry: MIS 19 is characterised by a minimum of the 400-kyr eccentricity cycle, subdued amplitude of precessional changes, and small amplitude variations in insolation making this marine isotopic stage a potential astronomical analogue for the Holocene and its future evolution, if this remains governed by natural forcing (Loutre and Berger 2000). Benthic and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope values indicate relatively stable conditions during the peak warmth of MIS 19, but sea-surface and deep-water reconstructions start diverging during the transition towards the glacial MIS 18, when large, cold excursions disrupt the surface waters whereas low amplitude millennial scale fluctuations persist in the deep waters as recorded by the oxygen isotope signal (Ferretti et al., 2015). The glacial inception occurred at ˜779 ka, in agreement with an increased abundance of tetra-unsaturated alkenones, reflecting the influence of icebergs and associated meltwater pulses and high-latitude waters at the study site. Using a variety of time series analysis techniques, we evaluate the evolution of millennial climate variability in response to changing orbital boundary conditions during the early-middle Pleistocene. Suborbital variability in both surface- and deep-water records is mainly concentrated at a period of ˜11 kyr and, additionally, at ˜5.8 and ˜3.9 kyr in the deep ocean; these periods are equal to harmonics of precession band oscillations. The fact that the response at the 11 kyr period increased over the same interval during which the amplitude of the response to the precessional cycle increased supports the notion that most of the variance in the 11 kyr band in the sedimentary record is nonlinearly transferred from precession band oscillations. Considering that these periodicities are important features in the equatorial and intertropical insolation, these observations are in line with the view that the low-latitude regions play an important role in the response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. We conclude that the effect of the orbitally induced insolation is of fundamental importance in regulating the timing and amplitude of millennial scale climate variability. Ferretti P., Crowhurst S.J., Naafs B.D.A., Barbante C., 2015. Quaternary Science Reviews 108, 95-110. Hays J.D., Imbrie J., Shackleton N.J., 1976. Science 194, 1121-1132. Loutre M.F., Berger A., 2000. Climatic Change 46, 61-90.

Influence of orographic precipitation on the incision within a mountain-piedmont system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, Valeria; Carretier, Sébastien; Bonnet, Stephane

2017-04-01

The geomorphological evolution of a mountain-piedmont system depends both on tectonics and climate, as well as on couplings between the mountain and its piedmont. Although the interactions between climate and tectonics are a fundamental point for understanding the landscape evolution, the erosion of a mountain range and the sediment deposition at the mountain front, or piedmont, have been poorly studied as a coupled system. Here we focus on the conditions driving an incision within such a system. Classically, it is thought that incision results from a change in climate or uplift rates. However, it is not clear which are the specific conditions that favor the occurrence of river incision in the piedmont. In particular, studies have shown that the presence of a piedmont can modify the incision patterns, and even drive autogenic incision, without any change in external forcings. This is a crucial issue in order to interpret natural incisions in terms of uplift or climatic modifications. Such a problem is further complicated by the modification of local precipitations and temperatures during uplift, because the progressive effect of climate change may superimpose to uplift. In this work we explore the hypothesis that a mountain-piedmont coupled system may develop incision in its piedmont as a result of enhanced orographic precipitations during surface uplift. We use a landscape evolution model, Cidre, in order to explore the response of a mountain-piemont system in which the mountain is continuously uplifted but in which precipitation rates depend on elevations. Thus precipitation amounts change during the mountain uplift. We test different peaks and amplitudes of the orographic precipitation pattern, maintaining the other conditions constant. Preliminary results show that elevation-dependent precipitations drive temporary but pronounced incisions of the main rivers within the piedmont, contrary to experiments without orographic precipitations.

Summer moisture changes in the Lake Qinghai area on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded from a meadow section over the past 8400 yrs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiangzhong; Liu, Xiangjun; He, Yuxin; Liu, Weiguo; Zhou, Xin; Wang, Zheng

2018-02-01

Holocene climatic and environmental changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been widely discussed based on the climatic records from sedimentary cores. However, differences in the reconstructed climatic history from various studies in this region still exist, probably due to influence of climatic proxies from multiple factors and the chronological uncertainties in lacustrine sediments. Here we present records of terrestrial plant δ13C, soil color and total organic carbon content over the past 8400 years from a well-dated meadow section on the northeastern TP. The terrestrial plant δ13C value serves as a good summer precipitation/moisture indicator in the studied region. Soil color property and TOC content are also able to disentangle the moisture evolution history. All the data show much wet climates at 8400-7400 cal yr BP, dry climates at 7400-6000 cal yr BP and then wet conditions with fluctuation at 6000-3200 cal yr BP. Late Holocene moisture appears to be comparable with moist conditions from 6000 to 3200 cal yr BP. By further comparing the climatic variations in the Lake Qinghai area with records of the reconstructed summer temperature and the Asian Monsoon precipitation, we believe that the pattern of moisture/precipitation evolution in the Lake Qinghai area was not completely consistent with regions around Lake Qinghai, probably due to complicated interaction between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere.

PubMed

Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusià, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S

2013-08-01

We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Linked Climatic, Environmental, and Societal Changes in the Lower Yellow River Area during the Neolithic-Bronze Age Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, S. Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding human-environment interactions during times of large and rapid climatic changes in the second half of the Holocene may deepen our insight into human adaptation and resilience against potential climate anomalies in the future. However, the drivers and societal responses tend to be different from area to area, and the degree and nature of this link are still a matter of debate. Flooding sediments preserved within the cultural stratigraphical context at archaeological sites in the lower Yellow River area may offer an ideal framework for evaluating the association between evolution of Neolithic cultures and climate fluctuations. Here, we present evidence from a mound site for the prevalence of extreme overbank floods during the Neolithic-Bronze Age transition most likely triggered by excessive summer precipitation in the Yellow River valley when prolonged weak El Niño condition prevailed. Repeated flooding during around 4000-3500 cal yr BP substantially modified the floodplain landscape, thereby driving people to disperse to areas dominated by the Erlitou culture and eventually giving rise to a state-level society in central China historiographically identified as the Xia Dynasty. Changes in the drainage network due to repeated flooding also exerted a profound impact on the rice farming-based communities centered in the region of the floods. Our results provide a precise past analogue of the linked climatic, environmental, and societal changes at a time when human societies were evolving into a hierarchy similar to those of today.

Chromosomal inversions promote genomic islands of concerted evolution of Hsp70 genes in the Drosophila subobscura species subgroup.

PubMed

Puig Giribets, Marta; García Guerreiro, María Pilar; Santos, Mauro; Ayala, Francisco J; Tarrío, Rosa; Rodríguez-Trelles, Francisco

2018-02-07

Heat-shock (HS) assays to understand the connection between standing inversion variation and evolutionary response to climate change in Drosophila subobscura found that "warm-climate" inversion O 3+4 exhibits non-HS levels of Hsp70 protein like those of "cold-climate" O ST after HS induction. This was unexpected, as overexpression of Hsp70 can incur multiple fitness costs. To understand the genetic basis of this finding, we have determined the genomic sequence organization of the Hsp70 family in four different inversions, including O ST , O 3+4 , O 3+4+8 and O 3+4+16 , using as outgroups the remainder of the subobscura species subgroup, namely Drosophila madeirensis and Drosophila guanche. We found (i) in all the assayed lines, the Hsp70 family resides in cytological locus 94A and consists of only two genes, each with four HS elements (HSEs) and three GAGA sites on its promoter. Yet, in O ST , the family is comparatively more compact; (ii) the two Hsp70 copies evolve in concert through gene conversion, except in D. guanche; (iii) within D. subobscura, the rate of concerted evolution is strongly structured by inversion, being higher in O ST than in O 3+4 ; and (iv) in D. guanche, the two copies accumulated multiple differences, including a newly evolved "gap-type" HSE2. The absence of concerted evolution in this species may be related to a long-gone-unnoticed observation that it lacks Hsp70 HS response, perhaps because it has evolved within a narrow thermal range in an oceanic island. Our results point to a previously unrealized link between inversions and concerted evolution, with potentially major implications for understanding genome evolution. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comprehensive Representation of Hydrologic and Geomorphic Process Coupling in Numerical Models: Internal Dynamics and Basin Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L.

2005-12-01

Landscape morphology has an important control on the spatial and temporal organization of basin hydrologic response to climate forcing, affecting soil moisture redistribution as well as vegetation function. On the other hand, erosion, driven by hydrology and modulated by vegetation, produces landforms over geologic time scales that reflect characteristic signatures of the dominant land forming process. Responding to extreme climate events or anthropogenic disturbances of the land surface, infrequent but rapid forms of erosion (e.g., arroyo development, landsliding) can modify topography such that basin hydrology is significantly influenced. Despite significant advances in both hydrologic and geomorphic modeling over the past two decades, the dynamic interactions between basin hydrology, geomorphology and terrestrial ecology are not adequately captured in current model frameworks. In order to investigate hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic interactions at the basin scale we present initial efforts in integrating the CHILD landscape evolution model (Tucker et al. 2001) with the tRIBS hydrology model (Ivanov et al. 2004), both developed in a common software environment. In this talk, we present preliminary results of the numerical modeling of the coupled evolution of basin hydro-geomorphic response and resulting landscape morphology in two sets of examples. First, we discuss the long-term evolution of both the hydrologic response and the resulting basin morphology from an initially uplifted plateau. In the second set of modeling experiments, we implement changes in climate and land-use to an existing topography and compare basin hydrologic response to the model results when landscape form is fixed (e.g. no coupling between hydrology and geomorphology). Model results stress the importance of internal basin dynamics, including runoff generation mechanisms and hydrologic states, in shaping hydrologic response as well as the importance of employing comprehensive conceptualizations of hydrology in modeling landscape evolution.

Analysis of the evolution of precipitation in the Haihe river basin of China under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiangyi; Liu, Jiahong; Gong, Jiaguo

2018-02-01

Precipitation is one of the important factors of water cycle and main sources of regional water resources. It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of precipitation under changing environment for identifying the evolution law of water resources, thus can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of related policies and measures. Generally, analysis of the evolution of precipitation consists of three levels: analysis the observed precipitation change based on measured data, explore the possible factors responsible for the precipitation change, and estimate the change trend of precipitation under changing environment. As the political and cultural centre of China, the climatic conditions in the Haihe river basin have greatly changed in recent decades. This study analyses the evolution of precipitation in the basin under changing environment based on observed meteorological data, GCMs and statistical methods. Firstly, based on the observed precipitation data during 1961-2000 at 26 meteorological stations in the basin, the actual precipitation change in the basin is analyzed. Secondly, the observed precipitation change in the basin is attributed using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and the causes of the observed precipitation change is identified. Finally, the change trend of precipitation in the basin under climate change in the future is predicted based on GCMs and a statistical downscaling model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the possible mutation time was 1965; 2) natural variability may be the factor responsible for the observed precipitation change in the basin; 3) under climate change in the future, precipitation in the basin will slightly increase by 4.8% comparing with the average, and the extremes will not vary significantly.

Pliocene-Pleistocene ecological niche evolution shapes the phylogeography of a Mediterranean plant group.

PubMed

Benítez-Benítez, C; Escudero, M; Rodríguez-Sánchez, F; Martín-Bravo, S; Jiménez-Mejías, P

2018-04-01

Estimating species ability to adapt to environmental changes is crucial to understand their past and future response to climate change. The Mediterranean Basin has experienced remarkable climatic changes since the Miocene, which have greatly influenced the evolution of the Mediterranean flora. Here, we examine the evolutionary history and biogeographic patterns of two sedge sister species (Carex, Cyperaceae) restricted to the western Mediterranean Basin, but with Pliocene fossil record in central Europe. In particular, we estimated the evolution of climatic niches through time and its influence in lineage differentiation. We carried out a dated phylogenetic-phylogeographic study based on seven DNA regions (nDNA and ptDNA) and fingerprinting data (AFLPs), and modelled ecological niches and species distributions for the Pliocene, Pleistocene and present. Phylogenetic and divergence time analyses revealed that both species form a monophyletic lineage originated in the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene. We detected clear genetic differentiation between both species with distinct genetic clusters in disjunct areas, indicating the predominant role of geographic barriers limiting gene flow. We found a remarkable shift in the climatic requirements between Pliocene and extant populations, although the niche seems to have been relatively conserved since the Pleistocene split of both species. This study highlights how an integrative approach combining different data sources and analyses, including fossils, allows solid and robust inferences about the evolutionary history of a plant group since the Pliocene. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aerosol physicochemical properties in relation to meteorology: Case studies in urban, marine, and arid settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wonaschuetz, Anna

Atmospheric aerosols are a highly relevant component of the climate system affecting atmospheric radiative transfer and the hydrological cycle. As opposed to other key atmospheric constituents with climatic relevance, atmospheric aerosol particles are highly heterogeneous in time and space with respect to their size, concentration, chemical composition and physical properties. Many aspects of their life cycle are not understood, making them difficult to represent in climate models and hard to control as a pollutant. Aerosol-cloud interactions in particular are infamous as a major source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Field measurements are an important source of information for the modeling community and can lead to a better understanding of chemical and microphysical processes. In this study, field data from urban, marine, and arid settings are analyzed and the impact of meteorological conditions on the evolution of aerosol particles while in the atmosphere is investigated. Particular attention is given to organic aerosols, which are a poorly understood component of atmospheric aerosols. Local wind characteristics, solar radiation, relative humidity and the presence or absence of clouds and fog are found to be crucial factors in the transport and chemical evolution of aerosol particles. Organic aerosols in particular are found to be heavily impacted by processes in the liquid phase (cloud droplets and aerosol water). The reported measurements serve to improve the process-level understanding of aerosol evolution in different environments and to inform the modeling community by providing realistic values for input parameters and validation of model calculations.

Precambrian evolution of the climate system.

PubMed

Walker, J C

1990-01-01

Climate is an important environmental parameter of the early Earth, likely to have affected the origin and evolution of life, the composition and mineralogy of sedimentary rocks, and stable isotope ratios in sedimentary minerals. There is little observational evidence constraining Precambrian climates. Most of our knowledge is at present theoretical. Factors that must have affected the climate include reduced solar luminosity, enhanced rotation rate of the Earth, an area of land that probably increased with time, and biological evolution, particularly as it affected the composition of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. Cloud cover is a major uncertainty about the early Earth. Carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effect are the factors that have been most extensively studied. This paper presents a new examination of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon as they may have changed between an Archean Earth deficient in land, sedimentary rocks, and biological activity, and a Proterozoic Earth much like the modern Earth, but lacking terrestrial life and carbonate-secreting plankton. Results of a numerical simulation of this transition show how increasing biological activity could have drawn down atmospheric carbon dioxide by extracting sedimentary organic carbon from the system. Increasing area of continents could further have drawn down carbon dioxide by encouraging the accumulation of carbonate sediments. An attempt to develop a numerical simulation of the carbon cycles of the Precambrian raises questions about sources and sinks of marine carbon and alkalinity on a world without continents. More information is needed about sea-floor weathering processes.

Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

PubMed

Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

2017-02-01

Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change.

PubMed

Lancaster, Lesley T; Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N

2017-01-19

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change

PubMed Central

Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N.

2017-01-01

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’. PMID:27920390

Holocene climate and cultural evolution in late prehistoric-early historic West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staubwasser, Michael; Weiss, Harvey

2006-11-01

The precipitation climatology and the underlying climate mechanisms of the eastern Mediterranean, West Asia, and the Indian subcontinent are reviewed, with emphasis on upper and middle tropospheric flow in the subtropics and its steering of precipitation. Holocene climate change of the region is summarized from proxy records. The Indian monsoon weakened during the Holocene over its northernmost region, the Ganges and Indus catchments and the western Arabian Sea. Southern regions, the Indian Peninsula, do not show a reduction, but an increase of summer monsoon rain across the Holocene. The long-term trend towards drier conditions in the eastern Mediterranean can be linked to a regionally complex monsoon evolution. Abrupt climate change events, such as the widespread droughts around 8200, 5200 and 4200 cal yr BP, are suggested to be the result of altered subtropical upper-level flow over the eastern Mediterranean and Asia. The abrupt climate change events of the Holocene radically altered precipitation, fundamental for cereal agriculture, across the expanse of late prehistoric-early historic cultures known from the archaeological record in these regions. Social adaptations to reduced agro-production, in both dry-farming and irrigation agriculture regions, are visible in the archaeological record during each abrupt climate change event in West Asia. Chronological refinement, in both the paleoclimate and archaeological records, and transfer functions for both precipitation and agro-production are needed to understand precisely the evident causal linkages.

A Zonal Climate Model for the 1-D Mars Evolution Code: Explaining Meridiani Planum.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, C. V.; McKay, C. P.; Zahnle, K. J.

2005-12-01

Recent MER Opportunity observations suggest there existed an extensive body of shallow water in the present Meridiani Planum during the late Noachian [1]. Observations of roughly contemporaneous valley networks show little net erosion [2]. Hypsometric analysis [3] finds that martian drainage basins are similar to terrestrial drainage basins in very arid regions. The immaturity of martian drainage basins suggests they were formed by infrequent fluvial action. If similar fluvial discharges are responsible for the laminations in the salt-bearing outcrops of Meridiani Planum, their explanation may require a climate model based on surface thermal equilibrium with diurnally averaged temperatures greater than freezing. In the context of Mars' chaotic obliquity, invoking a moderately thick atmosphere with seasonal insolation patterns may uncover the conditions under which the outcrops formed. We compounded a 1-D model of the evolution of Mars' inventories of CO2 over its lifetime called the Mars Evolution Code (MEC) [4]. We are assembling a zonal climate model that includes meridional heat transport, heat conduction to/from the regolith, latent heat deposition, and an albedo distribution based on the depositional patterns of ices. Since water vapor is an important greenhouse gas, and whose ice affects the albedo, we must install a full hydrological cycle. This requires a thermal model of the regolith to model diffusion of water vapor to/from a permafrost layer. Our model carries obliquity and eccentricity distributions consistent with Laskar et al. [5], so we will be able to model the movement of the ice cap with changes in obliquity. The climate model will be used to investigate the conditions under which ponded water could have occurred in the late Noachian, thus supplying a constraint on the free inventory of CO2 at that time. Our evolution code can then investigate Hesperian and Amazonian climates. The model could also be used to understand evidence of recent climate change, and the specifics of the layering of the northern polar cap. References [1] Hynek, B. M. (2004) Nature 431, 156. [2] Irwin, R. et al. (2004) LPI Conf. 35, 1991. [3] Stepinski, T. F., (2004) JGR E18, 2005 [4] Manning, C. V., et al. (2005Icarus submitted [5] Laskar, J. et al. (2004) Icarus, 170, 343.

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Erickson, David J., III; Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John O.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A key question is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change. An intriguing new statistical technique involving 'clustering' is developed to assist in this analysis.

[Trends of the grass ecological evolution].

PubMed

Sheremet'ev, S N; Gamaleĭ, Iu V

2009-01-01

The results of an analytic research show that the evolution of leaf structure and water balance are completely coincident with the global changes of the planet climate and hydrology. Taxic diversity of herbs and herbaceous biomes is a function of the paleoclimate variability and the plant adaptations to it. The correlation between the plant organization and climate changes allow to reconstruct both the climate changes chronicle and the geological ages of plant taxa based on the structure and function of the plant species. Two global trends of ecological evolution can be recognized differing mutually by the composition of herbaceous adaptive types: (a) the evolutionary line of herbs of chilling plains with domination of the plant species with C3 apoplastic syndrome formed under cold climate condition, and (b) the evolutionary line of herbs of hot plains with domination of plant species with C4 apoplastic syndrome. Both trends include the monocots and dicots, and both are the results of climate changes in the Cenozoic. C3 herbs of chilling plains and the steppe and meadow phytocoenoses formed by them arose as an answer to the temperature decrease in the significant areas of high latitudes. The apoplastic syndrome (transfer from symplastic transport of assimilates suppressed by cold to their apoplastic transport) is a diagnostic feature for this group of herbs. The C4 herbs of hot plains and the savannas, deserts and the saline land plant vegetation are an adaptive answer to iridizations of low latitude areas. The C4 syndrome (compensation of stomata closure by the mechanism of CO2 concentration in the leaf tissues) is a special character of this group of herbs. Both types of herbaceous biomes come to change forest biomes which were strongly decreased in both areas at low and high latitudes. This tendency is continued in parallel with the climate tendency to the continent dessication and cooling.

Perceived temperature in the course of climate change: an analysis of global heat index from 1979-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Brenner, T.

2015-03-01

The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and evaluate global changes to the heat index, a measure of temperature as perceived by humans. Heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and other animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute heat index from dewpoint temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the years 1979-2013. The data is provided aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.841057). Furthermore, the data is temporally aggregated to monthly and yearly values and spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to demonstrate its usefulness for the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past 3 decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The likelihood of dangerous heat index events has increased globally. Also, heat index climate groups that would formerly be expected closer to the tropics have spread latitudinally to include areas closer to the poles. The data can serve in future studies as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.

Evaluating the performance of coupled snow-soil models in SURFEXv8 to simulate the permafrost thermal regime at a high Arctic site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrere, Mathieu; Domine, Florent; Decharme, Bertrand; Morin, Samuel; Vionnet, Vincent; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-09-01

Climate change projections still suffer from a limited representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Predicting the response of permafrost temperature to climate change requires accurate simulations of Arctic snow and soil properties. This study assesses the capacity of the coupled land surface and snow models ISBA-Crocus and ISBA-ES to simulate snow and soil properties at Bylot Island, a high Arctic site. Field measurements complemented with ERA-Interim reanalyses were used to drive the models and to evaluate simulation outputs. Snow height, density, temperature, thermal conductivity and thermal insulance are examined to determine the critical variables involved in the soil and snow thermal regime. Simulated soil properties are compared to measurements of thermal conductivity, temperature and water content. The simulated snow density profiles are unrealistic, which is most likely caused by the lack of representation in snow models of the upward water vapor fluxes generated by the strong temperature gradients within the snowpack. The resulting vertical profiles of thermal conductivity are inverted compared to observations, with high simulated values at the bottom of the snowpack. Still, ISBA-Crocus manages to successfully simulate the soil temperature in winter. Results are satisfactory in summer, but the temperature of the top soil could be better reproduced by adequately representing surface organic layers, i.e., mosses and litter, and in particular their water retention capacity. Transition periods (soil freezing and thawing) are the least well reproduced because the high basal snow thermal conductivity induces an excessively rapid heat transfer between the soil and the snow in simulations. Hence, global climate models should carefully consider Arctic snow thermal properties, and especially the thermal conductivity of the basal snow layer, to perform accurate predictions of the permafrost evolution under climate change.

Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerly, D.D.; Schwilk, D.W.; Webb, C.O.

2006-01-01

In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in many adaptive radiations. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Leaf wax biomarker reconstruction of Early Pleistocene hydrological variation during hominin evolution in West Turkana, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupien, R.; Russell, J. M.; Cohen, A. S.; Feibel, C. S.; Beck, C.; Castañeda, I. S.

2016-12-01

Climate change is thought to play a critical role in human evolution; however, this hypothesis is difficult to test due to a lack of long, high-quality paleoclimate records from key hominin fossil locales. To address this issue, we examine Plio-Pleistocene lake sediment drill cores from East Africa that were recovered by the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project, an international effort to study the environment in which our hominin ancestors evolved and dispersed. With new data we test various evolutionary hypotheses, such as the "variability selection" hypothesis, which posits that high-frequency environmental variations selected for generalist traits that allowed hominins to expand into variable environments. We analyzed organic geochemical signals of climate in lake cores from West Turkana, Kenya, which span 1.87-1.38 Ma and contain the first fossils from Homo erectus. In particular, we present a compound-specific hydrogen isotopic analysis of terrestrial plant waxes (δDwax) that records regional hydrology. The amount effect dominates water isotope fractionation in the tropics; therefore, these data are interpreted to reflect mean annual rainfall, which affects vegetation structure and thus, hominin habitats. The canonical view of East Africa is that climate became drier and increasingly felt high-latitude glacial-interglacial cycles during the Plio-Pleistocene. However, the drying trend seen in some records is not evident in Turkana δDwax, signifying instead a climate with a steady mean state. Spectral and moving variance analyses indicate paleohydrological variations related to both high-latitude glaciation (41 ky cycle) and local insolation-forced monsoons (21 ky cycle). An interval of particularly high-amplitude rainfall variation occurs at 1.7 Ma, which coincides with the intensification of the Walker Circulation. These results identify high- and low-latitude controls on East African paleohydrology during Homo erectus evolution. In particular, the interval of high-amplitude variability coincides with hominin evolution changes and lends support for the "variability selection" hypothesis. Similar analyses of a drill core from Northern Awash, Ethiopia ( 3.3-2.9 Ma) will be presented to compare Pliocene and Pleistocene climate variations.

Long-term (in)stability of the climate-streamflow relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saft, Margarita; Peel, Murray; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Parajka, Juraj; Woods, Ross

2017-04-01

Land use changes have long been known to alter streamflow production for a given climatic input. Recently, extended shifts in climate were also shown to be capable of altering catchment internal functioning and streamflow production for a given climatic input. This study investigates the stability of climate-streamflow relationships in natural catchments in different regions of the world for the first time, using datasets of natural/reference catchments from Europe, US, and Australia. Changes in climate-streamflow relationships are investigated statistically on the interannual to interdecadal timescale and related to interdecadal climate variability. We compare the frequency and magnitude of shifts in climate-streamflow relationship between different regions, and discuss what any differences in shift frequency and magnitude might be related to. This study draws attention to the issues of catchment vulnerability to changes in external factors, catchment-climate co-evolution, and long-term catchment memory.

The origin and significance of sinuosity along incising bedrock rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbour, Jonathan Ross

Landscapes evolve through processes acting at the earth's surface in response to tectonics and climate. Rivers that cut into bedrock are particularly important since they set the local baselevel and communicate changes in boundary conditions across the landscape through erosion and deposition; the pace of topographic evolution depends on both the rate of change of the boundary conditions and the speed of the bedrock channel network response. Much of the work so far has considered the effects of tectonically-controlled changes in slope and climatically-controlled changes in discharges to the rate of channel bed erosion while considering bank erosion, if active at all, to be of at best secondary importance to landscape evolution. Sprinkled throughout the literature of the past century are studies that have recognized lateral activity along incising rivers, but conflicting interpretations have left many unanswered questions about how to identify and measure horizontal erosion, what drives it, what effect it has on the landscape, and how it responds to climate and tectonics. In this thesis, I begin to answer some of these questions by focusing on bedrock river sinuosity and its evolution through horizontal erosion of the channel banks. An analysis of synoptic scale topography and climatology of the islands of eastern Asia reveals a quantitative signature of storm frequency in a regional measure of mountain river sinuosity. This is partly explained through a study of the hydro- and morphodynamics of a rapidly evolving bedrock river in Taiwan which shows how the erosive forces vary along a river to influence the spatiotemporal distribution of downcutting, sidecutting, and sediment transport. Through these analyses, I also present evidence that suggests that the relative frequency of erosive events is far more important than the absolute magnitude of extreme events in setting the erosion rate, and I show that the horizontal erosion of bedrock rivers is an important contributor to landscape evolution. This thesis comprises a new look at the processes at work in bedrock rivers which suggests new ideas about the ways that landscape and climate interact, new tools for interpreting landscape morphology, and new insights into the processes that contribute to the evolution of active orogens.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

2013-12-01

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA is planned to be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. The requirements of the educational tool are defined with the interaction with the school organizers, and CMDA is customized to meet the requirements accordingly. The tool needs to be production quality for 30+ simultaneous users. The summer school will thus serve as a valuable testbed for the tool development, preparing CMDA to serve the Earth-science modeling and model-analysis community at the end of the project. This work was funded by the NASA Earth Science Program called Computational Modeling Algorithms and Cyberinfrastructure (CMAC).

Progressive Climate Change on Titan: Implications for Habitability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, J. M.; A. D. Howard

2014-01-01

Titan's landscape is profoundly shaped by its atmosphere and comparable in magnitude perhaps with only the Earth and Mars amongst the worlds of the Solar System. Like the Earth, climate dictates the intensity and relative roles of fluvial and aeolian activity from place to place and over geologic time. Thus Titan's landscape is the record of climate change. We have investigated three broad classes of Titan climate evolution hypotheses (Steady State, Progressive, and Cyclic), regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We favor the Progressive hypotheses, which we will outline here, then discuss their implication for habitability.

Evolutionary and plastic responses of freshwater invertebrates to climate change: realized patterns and future potential

PubMed Central

Stoks, Robby; Geerts, Aurora N; De Meester, Luc

2014-01-01

We integrated the evidence for evolutionary and plastic trait changes in situ in response to climate change in freshwater invertebrates (aquatic insects and zooplankton). The synthesis on the trait changes in response to the expected reductions in hydroperiod and increases in salinity indicated little evidence for adaptive, plastic, and genetic trait changes and for local adaptation. With respect to responses to temperature, there are many studies on temporal trait changes in phenology and body size in the wild that are believed to be driven by temperature increases, but there is a general lack of rigorous demonstration whether these trait changes are genetically based, adaptive, and causally driven by climate change. Current proof for genetic trait changes under climate change in freshwater invertebrates stems from a limited set of common garden experiments replicated in time. Experimental thermal evolution experiments and common garden warming experiments associated with space-for-time substitutions along latitudinal gradients indicate that besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity are likely to contribute to the observed phenotypic changes under climate change in aquatic invertebrates. Apart from plastic and genetic thermal adjustments, also genetic photoperiod adjustments are widespread and may even dominate the observed phenological shifts. PMID:24454547

Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones.

PubMed

Vinnarasi, R; Dhanya, C T; Chakravorty, Aniket; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-08-04

Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

Modelling the Holderness coast, eastern England: Past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkwith, A.; Limber, P. W.; Thomas, C. W.; Murray, A.; Jordan, H. M.; Ellis, M. A.

2012-12-01

The Holderness coast of eastern Yorkshire, England, is the most rapidly eroding coastline in Europe. Erosion can locally exceed 10 m in a single year and rates average 0.5 to 3 m yr-1, generally increasing from north to south. Pinned in the north by a chalk headland, the soft till coastline has a characteristic open spiral form terminated by a spit to the south. Erosion currently threatens local communities and infrastructure, including nationally important gas installations. Interventions to restrict local erosion usually result in enhanced erosion in adjacent, unprotected sections of coast, mirroring morphology seen on the large scale. We have initiated a modelling study to investigate the key controls on the form and evolution of this coastline, and its response to climate change, building on the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) developed at Duke University, NC. We have adapted the CEM to permit an ensemble of simulations to be undertaken, based upon modified offshore wave climates, initial conditions and forcing factors. The CEM follows a standard 1d approach, where the cross-shore is collapsed into a single data point, allowing the planform shoreline shape and dynamics to be simulated. The model facilitates study of a coast with variable erosion rates, and enables simulation of coastline evolution when sediment is supplied from an eroding shoreface. Additionally, the CEM is adapted to use an observed two year, offshore wave climate data set as input. Initial work focussed on reconstruction of current coastline shape from an ensemble of hypothetical early Holocene shoreface positions and past wave climates. First order reconstruction of shoreline shape was achieved using several differing initial conditions and wave climates. For the majority of successful simulations, a steady state was noted for proceeding years, where erosion proceeds at an equal rate along the length of the coast south of the headland. Together with a sensitivity analysis, the derivation of the current coastline provided initial conditions for the second phase of the work: simulating the morphological response of the Holderness coastline to possible future changes in climate over the next century. An ensemble of future possible wave climate perturbations was generated from predictions of the likely response of the North Sea to future climate change over the next century, and applied linearly to the observed wave climate as each simulation progressed. The ensemble output was compared to a baseline simulation, run for a century under current wave climate, to assess the impact of predicted future climate on coastal erosion. Although this study does not currently take into account the changes in storm frequency, rises in sea level or the anthropogenic inputs that could influence the results, the initial output indicates erosional rates over the next century are likely to be retarded for the Holderness coastline under a changing climate.

Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Ingram, W. J.; Gregory, J. M.

2009-04-01

Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-timescale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilisation to a forcing can be considered an artefact of using conventional forcings which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on timescales which are short compared to the climate stabilisation timescale then there is little centennial timescale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. We suggest that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere - ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere - mixed-layer ocean (AML) counterparts, (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. We suggest that at least some of the spread in 21st century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

Forecasting Glacier Evolution and Hindcasting Paleoclimates In Light of Mass Balance Nonlinearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; Doughty, A. M.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Glaciers are commonly used barometers of present and past climate change, with their variations often being linked to shifts in the mean climate. Climate variability within a unchanging mean state, however, can produce short term mass balance and glacier length anomalies, complicating this linkage. Also, the mass balance response to this variability can be nonlinear, possibly impacting the longer term state of the glacier. We propose a conceptual model to understand these nonlinearities and quantify their impacts on the longer term mass balance and glacier length. The relationship between mass balance and elevation, i.e. the vertical balance profile (VBP), illuminates these nonlinearities (Figure A). The VBP, given here for a wet tropical glacier, is piecewise, which can lead to different mass balance responses to climate anomalies of similar magnitude but opposite sign. We simulate the mass balance response to climate variability by vertically (temperature anomalies) and horizontally (precipitation anomalies) transposing the VBP for the mean climate (Figure A). The resulting anomalous VBP is the superposition of the two translations. We drive a 1-D flowline model with 10,000 years of anomalous VBPs. The aggregate VBP for the mean climate including variability differs from the VBP for the mean climate excluding variability, having a higher equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and a negative mass balance (Figure B). Accordingly, the glacier retreats, and the equilibrium glacier length for the aggregate VBP is the same as the mean length from the 10,000 year flowline simulation (Figure C). The magnitude of the VBP shift and glacier retreat increases with greater temperature variability and larger discontinuities in the VBP slope. These results highlight the importance of both the climate mean and variability in determining the longer term state of the glacier. Thus, forecasting glacier evolution or hindcasting past climates should also include representation of climate variability.

Genetic variation in the southern pines: evolution, migration, and adaptation following the pleistocene

Treesearch

Ronald Schmidtling

2007-01-01

Climate has certainly changed over time, requiring genetic change or migration of forest tree species. Little is known about the location of the southern pines during the Pleistocene glaciation, which ended around 14,000 years ago. Macrofossils of spruce (Picea spp.) dating from the late Pleistocene, which are typical of climates much cooler than...

Strategies for conserving forest genetic resources in the face of climate change

Treesearch

John Bradley St. Clair; Glenn Thomas Howe

2011-01-01

Conservation of genetic diversity is important for continued evolution of populations to new environments, as well as continued availability of traits of interest in genetic improvement programs. Rapidly changing climates present new threats to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We can no longer assume that in situ reserves will continue to preserve existing...

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

Climate change and evolutionary adaptation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Ary A; Sgrò, Carla M

2011-02-24

Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.

The development and application of landscape evolution models to coupled coast-estuarine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Chloe; Coulthard, Tom; Parsons, Daniel R.; Manson, Susan; Barkwith, Andrew

2017-04-01

Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) are proven to be useful tools in understanding the morphodynamics of coast and estuarine systems. However, perhaps owing to the lack of research in this area, current models are not capable of simulating the dynamic interactions between these systems and their co-evolution at the meso-scale. Through a novel coupling of numerical models, this research is designed to explore coupled coastal-estuarine interactions, controls on system behaviour and the influence that environmental change could have. This will contribute to the understanding of the morphodynamics of these systems and how they may behave and evolve over the next century in response to climate changes, with the aim of informing management practices. This goal is being achieved through the modification and coupling of the one-line Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) with the hydrodynamic LEM CAESAR-Lisflood (C-L). The major issues faced with coupling these programs are their differing complexities and the limited graphical visualisations produced by the CEM that hinder the dissemination of results. The work towards overcoming these issues and reported here, include a new version of the CEM that incorporates a range of more complex geomorphological processes and boasts a graphical user interface that guides users through model set-up and projects a live output during model runs. The improved version is a stand-alone tool that can be used for further research projects and for teaching purposes. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method has been completed to identify which key variables, including wave climate, erosion and weathering values, dominate the control of model behaviour. The model is being applied and tested using the evolution of the Holderness Coast, Humber Estuary and Spurn Point on the east coast of England (UK), which possess diverse geomorphologies and complex, co-evolving sediment pathways. Simulations using the modified CEM are currently being completed to ascertain the processes influential to the morphodynamics and evolution of these systems; presently this includes increasing sea levels and changing wave climate patterns. Outputs and findings from these runs will be presented and discussed, with the aid of the improved graphical visualisations and animations that illustrate the evolution of simulated environments.

Is rapid evolution of reproductive traits in Adonis annua consistent with pollinator decline?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomann, M.; Imbert, E.; Cheptou, P.-O.

2015-11-01

Growing human footprint on the environment rapidly modifies the living conditions of natural populations. This could lead to phenotypic changes through both plasticity and evolution. Therefore, distinguishing the role of evolution in the phenotypic response to global change is a major challenge. In this study, we benefited from past and recent seeds from a population of the annual self-compatible weed Adonis annua. Seeds were sampled from the same locality at an 18 years interval and close to a region where reduction of bee pollinators' density has been reported. We used a common garden experiment to investigate evolutionary changes, between the old (1992) and the recent (2010) sample, for some reproductive traits expected to be under selection in the context of climate warming and pollinator decline. Plants of the recent sample flowered earlier, had larger flowers, but also evolved a shorter floral longevity. The capacity of plants to reproduce autonomously (autonomous selfing) was similar in the two samples. These results are consistent with adaptation of flowering phenology to climate warming and in part consistent with the evolution of increased pollinator attraction under pollinator decline. Together with other recent studies, this study provides evidence that short-term evolution is a frequent phenomenon accompanying global change.

Asynchronous evolution of physiology and morphology in Anolis lizards.

PubMed

Hertz, Paul E; Arima, Yuzo; Harrison, Alexis; Huey, Raymond B; Losos, Jonathan B; Glor, Richard E

2013-07-01

Species-rich adaptive radiations typically diversify along several distinct ecological axes, each characterized by morphological, physiological, and behavioral adaptations. We test here whether different types of adaptive traits share similar patterns of evolution within a radiation by investigating patterns of evolution of morphological traits associated with microhabitat specialization and of physiological traits associated with thermal biology in Anolis lizards. Previous studies of anoles suggest that close relatives share the same "structural niche" (i.e., use the same types of perches) and are similar in body size and shape, but live in different "climatic niches" (i.e., use habitats with different insolation and temperature profiles). Because morphology is closely tied to structural niche and field active body temperatures are tied to climatic niches in Anolis, we expected phylogenetic analyses to show that morphology is more evolutionarily conservative than thermal physiology. In support of this hypothesis, we find (1) that thermal biology exhibits more divergence among recently diverged Anolis taxa than does morphology; and (2) diversification of thermal biology among all species often follows diversification in morphology. These conclusions are remarkably consistent with predictions made by anole biologists in the 1960s and 1970s. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

A New Basal Sauropod Dinosaur from the Middle Jurassic of Niger and the Early Evolution of Sauropoda

PubMed Central

Remes, Kristian; Ortega, Francisco; Fierro, Ignacio; Joger, Ulrich; Kosma, Ralf; Marín Ferrer, José Manuel; Ide, Oumarou Amadou; Maga, Abdoulaye

2009-01-01

Background The early evolution of sauropod dinosaurs is poorly understood because of a highly incomplete fossil record. New discoveries of Early and Middle Jurassic sauropods have a great potential to lead to a better understanding of early sauropod evolution and to reevaluate the patterns of sauropod diversification. Principal Findings A new sauropod from the Middle Jurassic of Niger, Spinophorosaurus nigerensis n. gen. et sp., is the most complete basal sauropod currently known. The taxon shares many anatomical characters with Middle Jurassic East Asian sauropods, while it is strongly dissimilar to Lower and Middle Jurassic South American and Indian forms. A possible explanation for this pattern is a separation of Laurasian and South Gondwanan Middle Jurassic sauropod faunas by geographic barriers. Integration of phylogenetic analyses and paleogeographic data reveals congruence between early sauropod evolution and hypotheses about Jurassic paleoclimate and phytogeography. Conclusions Spinophorosaurus demonstrates that many putatively derived characters of Middle Jurassic East Asian sauropods are plesiomorphic for eusauropods, while South Gondwanan eusauropods may represent a specialized line. The anatomy of Spinophorosaurus indicates that key innovations in Jurassic sauropod evolution might have taken place in North Africa, an area close to the equator with summer-wet climate at that time. Jurassic climatic zones and phytogeography possibly controlled early sauropod diversification. PMID:19756139

Ocean-atmosphere relationships from synoptic scale to local scale in South San Francisco Bay, with implications to flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, Silicon Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, W. B.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, N. L.; Coats, R. N.; Loewenstein, M.; Roy, S. B.; MacWilliams, M.

2012-12-01

This work evaluates the implications to flooding risk at the low-lying NASA Ames Research Center in South San Francisco Bay under historical and projected climate and sea level rise. Atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific Ocean, influenced by ENSO and PDO, can result in extended periods of higher mean coastal sea level in California. Simultaneously they originate a larger number of storms that make landfall and have higher mean intensity. These storms generate barometrically-induced high water anomalies, and winds that are sometimes capable of producing large coastal waves. Storm surges that propagate from the coast into the estuary and South Bay, and locally-generated waves, may compromise the discharge capacity of stream channels. These conditions also typically generate high intensity rainfall, and the reduced channel capacity may result in fluvial flooding. Such atmospheric circulation patterns may persist for many months, during which California experiences more precipitation events of longer mean duration and higher intensity, leading to large precipitation totals that saturate soils and may exceed the storage capacity of stormwater retention ponds. Future scenarios of sea level rise, that may surpass a meter in this century according to the projections recently published by the National Research Council for states of CA, OR and WA, and projected atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic climate change, may amplify these risks. We evaluate the impacts of these changes on NASA's Ames Research Center through four areas of study: (i) wetland accretion and evolution as mean sea level rises, with implications to the Bay's response to the sea level rise and storm surges, (ii) hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the propagation of tidal height and storm surges in the Bay and the influence of local winds on wave height, (iii) evaluation of historical data and future climate projections to identify extreme precipitation events, and (iv) regional climate models to identify moisture source areas and evaluate the role of moisture flux on projected California precipitation.;

Evolution of marginal populations of an invasive vine increases the likelihood of future spread

Treesearch

Francis F. Kilkenny; Laura F. Galloway

2015-01-01

The prediction of invasion patterns may require an understanding of intraspecific differentiation in invasive species and its interaction with climate change. We compare Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) plants from the core (100-150 yr old) and northern margin (< 65 yr old) of their North American invaded range to determine whether evolution...

Proceedings of the MECA Workshop on The Evoluation of the Martian Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, M. (Editor); James, P. (Editor); Conway, L. (Editor); Pepin, R. (Editor); Pollack, J. (Editor)

1985-01-01

Topics addressed include: Mars' volatile budget; climatic implications of martian channels; bulk composition of Mars; accreted water inventory; evolution of CO2; dust storms; nonlinear frost albedo feedback on Mars; martian atmospheric evolution; effects of asteroidal and cometary impacts; and water exchange between the regolith and the atmosphere/cap system over obliquity timescales.

Perceived temperature in the course of climate change: an analysis of global heat index from 1979 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Brenner, T.

2015-08-01

The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and propose the use of the heat index, a measure of the temperature as perceived by humans, to evaluate global changes. The heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute the heat index from dew point temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set for the years 1979-2013. The described data set provides global heat index aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima per day (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.841057). This paper examines these data, as well as showing aggregations to monthly and yearly values. Furthermore, the data are spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to facilitate the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past three decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The data can serve as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.

Prediction of cloud condensation nuclei activity for organic compounds using functional group contribution methods

DOE PAGES

Petters, M. D.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Ziemann, P. J.

2016-01-19

A wealth of recent laboratory and field experiments demonstrate that organic aerosol composition evolves with time in the atmosphere, leading to changes in the influence of the organic fraction to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra. There is a need for tools that can realistically represent the evolution of CCN activity to better predict indirect effects of organic aerosol on clouds and climate. This work describes a model to predict the CCN activity of organic compounds from functional group composition. Following previous methods in the literature, we test the ability of semi-empirical group contribution methods in Kohler theory to predict themore » effective hygroscopicity parameter, kappa. However, in our approach we also account for liquid–liquid phase boundaries to simulate phase-limited activation behavior. Model evaluation against a selected database of published laboratory measurements demonstrates that kappa can be predicted within a factor of 2. Simulation of homologous series is used to identify the relative effectiveness of different functional groups in increasing the CCN activity of weakly functionalized organic compounds. Hydroxyl, carboxyl, aldehyde, hydroperoxide, carbonyl, and ether moieties promote CCN activity while methylene and nitrate moieties inhibit CCN activity. Furthermore, the model can be incorporated into scale-bridging test beds such as the Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A) to evaluate the evolution of kappa for a complex mix of organic compounds and to develop suitable parameterizations of CCN evolution for larger-scale models.« less

Tracking the Pacific Decadal Precession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Furtado, Jason C.; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Short Gianotti, Daniel J.

2017-03-01

Events of recent years—including extended droughts across California, record fires across western Canada, and destabilization of marine ecosystems—highlight the profound impact of multiannual to decadal-scale climate shifts upon physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. While previous research has focused on the influence of decadal-scale climate oscillations such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, recent research has revealed the presence of a quasi-decadal mode of climate variability that, unlike the quasi-stationary standing wave-like structure of the oscillatory modes, involves a progression of atmospheric pressure anomalies around the North Pacific, which has been termed the Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP). In this paper we develop a set of methods to track the spatial and temporal evolutions of the PDP within historical observations as well as numerical model simulations. In addition, we provide a method that approximates the time evolution of the PDP across the full period of available data for real-time monitoring of the PDP. Through the development of these tracking methods, we hope to provide the community with a consistent framework for future analysis and diagnosis of the PDP's characteristics and underlying processes, thereby avoiding the use of different, and disparate, phenomenological- and mathematical-based indices that can confound our understanding of the PDP and its evolution.

Life-History Patterns of Lizards of the World.

PubMed

Mesquita, Daniel O; Costa, Gabriel C; Colli, Guarino R; Costa, Taís B; Shepard, Donald B; Vitt, Laurie J; Pianka, Eric R

2016-06-01

Identification of mechanisms that promote variation in life-history traits is critical to understand the evolution of divergent reproductive strategies. Here we compiled a large life-history data set (674 lizard populations, representing 297 species from 263 sites globally) to test a number of hypotheses regarding the evolution of life-history traits in lizards. We found significant phylogenetic signal in most life-history traits, although phylogenetic signal was not particularly high. Climatic variables influenced the evolution of many traits, with clutch frequency being positively related to precipitation and clutches of tropical lizards being smaller than those of temperate species. This result supports the hypothesis that in tropical and less seasonal climates, many lizards tend to reproduce repeatedly throughout the season, producing smaller clutches during each reproductive episode. Our analysis also supported the hypothesis that viviparity has evolved in lizards as a response to cooler climates. Finally, we also found that variation in trait values explained by clade membership is unevenly distributed among lizard clades, with basal clades and a few younger clades showing the most variation. Our global analyses are largely consistent with life-history theory and previous results based on smaller and scattered data sets, suggesting that these patterns are remarkably consistent across geographic and taxonomic scales.

Understanding the Miocene-Pliocene - The Mediterranean Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, D.; Marzocchi, A.; Lunt, D. J.; Flecker, R.; Hilgen, F. J.; Meijer, P. T.

2015-12-01

During the Miocene-Pliocene the Mediterranean region experienced major changes in paleogeography. Today, its only connection to the global ocean is the Strait of Gibraltar. This restricted nature causes the Mediterranean basin to react more sensitive to climatic and tectonic related phenomena than the global ocean: Not just eustatic sea-level and regional river run-off, but also gateway tectonics and connectivity between sub-basins are leaving an enhanced fingerprint in its geological record. To understand its evolution, it is crucial to understand how these different effects are coupled. The Miocene-Pliocene sedimentary record of the Mediterranean alternates in composition and colour. Around the Miocene-Pliocene Boundary the most extreme changes occur in the Mediterranean Sea: About 6% of the salt in the global ocean got deposited in the Mediterranean Region, forming an approximately 2km thick salt layer, which is still present today. This extreme event is named the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.97-5.33Ma). Before (and also after) the MSC, the sedimentary record demonstrates "marl dominated" alternations with variations in organic content (e.g. higher organic content = sapropel). During the MSC these change to mainly "evaporite (e.g. gypsum or halite) dominated" alternations, but also to brackish Black Sea-type of deposits towards the end of the crisis. Due to its relative short geological time span, the period before, during and after the MSC is ideal to study these extreme changes in sedimentation. We are investigating these couplings and evolutions in a box/budget model. With such a model we can study the responses to basin water exchange dynamics under the effect of different regional and global climatic and tectonic forcings, to predict the evolution of basin properties (e.g. salinity). By doing so we can isolate certain climatic and tectonic effects, to better understand their individual contribution, their interaction, but also the consequences due to their coupling. Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, Climate, Coupling, Evolution, Messinian Salinity Crisis, Modeling, Strait of Gibraltar, GCM

Cenozoic climate evolution in Asian region and its influence on isotopic composition of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botsyun, Svetlana; Donnadieu, Yannick; Sepulchre, Pierre; Risi, Camille; Fluteau, Frédéric

2015-04-01

The evolution of Asian climate during the Cenozoic as well as the onset of monsoon systems in this area is highly debated. Factors that control climate include the geographical position of continents, the land-sea distribution and altitude of orogens. In tern, several climatic parameters such as air temperature, precipitation amount and isotopic fractionation through mass-dependent processes impact precipitation δ18O lapse rate. Stable oxygen paleoaltimetry is considered to be a very efficient and widely applied technique, but the link between stable oxygen composition of precipitation and climate is not well established. To quantify the influence of paleogeography changes on climate and precipitation δ18O over Asia, the atmospheric general circulation model LMDZ-iso, with embedded stable oxygen isotopes, was used. For more realistic experiments, sea surface temperatures were calculated with the fully coupled model FOAM. Various scenarios of TP growth have been applied together with Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene and Miocene boundary conditions. The results of our numerical modelling show a significant influence of paleogeography changes on the Asian climate. The retreat of the Paratethys ocean, the changes in latitudinal position of India, and the height of the Tibetan Plateau most likely control precipitation patterns over Asia and cause spatial and temporal isotopic variations linked with the amount effect. Indian Ocean currents restructuring during the Eocene induces a substantial warming over Asian continent. The adiabatic and non-adiabatic temperature effects explain some of δ18O signal variations. We highlight the importance of these multiple factor on paleoelevations estimates derived using oxygen stable isotopes.

Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution Project (RICE): A 65 Kyr ice core record of black carbon aerosol deposition to the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Ross; Bertler, Nancy; Tuohy, Andrea; Neff, Peter; Proemse, Bernedette; Feiteng, Wang; Goodwin, Ian; Hogan, Chad

2015-04-01

Emitted by fires, black carbon aerosols (rBC) perturb the atmosphere's physical and chemical properties and are climatically active. Sedimentary charcoal and other paleo-fire records suggest that rBC emissions have varied significantly in the past due to human activity and climate variability. However, few paleo rBC records exist to constrain reconstructions of the past rBC atmospheric distribution and its climate interaction. As part of the international Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project, we have developed an Antarctic rBC ice core record spanning the past ~65 Kyr. The RICE deep ice core was drilled from the Roosevelt Island ice dome in West Antarctica from 2011 to 2013. The high depth resolution (~ 1 cm) record was developed using a single particle intracavity laser-induced incandescence soot photometer (SP2) coupled to an ice core melter system. The rBC record displays sub-annual variability consistent with both austral dry-season and summer biomass burning. The record exhibits significant decadal to millennial-scale variability consistent with known changes in climate. Glacial rBC concentrations were much lower than Holocene concentrations with the exception of several periods of abrupt increases in rBC. The transition from glacial to interglacial rBC concentrations occurred over a much longer time relative to other ice core climate proxies such as water isotopes and suggests . The protracted increase in rBC during the transition may reflected Southern hemisphere ecosystem / fire regime changes in response to hydroclimate and human activity.

How strong was the 2015/2016 El Niño event?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Iskhaq; Lestari, DeniOkta; Utari, PutriAdia; Sari, QurniaWulan; Setiabudidaya, Dedi; Mardiansyah, Wijaya; Supardi; Rozirwan

2018-04-01

On the interannual timescale, the Indonesian climate is strongly influenced by a coupled ocean-atmosphere modes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During a warm phase (El Niño event), negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western tropical Pacific lead to suppress convection activities causing reduce precipitation over the maritime continent. The situation is reverse during the cold season(La Niña event). In this study, the evolution of 2015/2016 El Niño event is evaluated based on the collected data by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean/Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TAO/TRITON) buoys. The results show that the evolution of the event has started in boreal spring (April – May 2015). It came to thepeak in boreal fall/winter (October – December 2015). The event lasted until boreal spring before it terminated in April/May 2016. In addition, the intensity of the event is classified as a strong event, and it is one of the strongest El Niño events during the last three decades.

The case for a deep-atmospheric in situ mission to address the highest priority Decadal Survey questions for Venus (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atreya, S. K.; Garvin, J. B.; Glaze, L. S.; Campbell, B. A.; Fisher, M. E.; Flores, A.; Gilmore, M. S.; Johnson, N.; Kiefer, W. S.; Lorenz, R. D.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Ravine, M. A.; Webster, C. R.; Zolotov, M. Y.

2013-12-01

Current understanding of Venus lags behind that for Mars, with a major disparity of information concerning noble and trace gases and the small scale surface processes needed for comparative studies of terrestrial planet evolution. Despite global surface mapping by Magellan, discoveries by Venera landers, and ongoing atmospheric observations by the Venus Express (VEx) orbiter, significant questions about Venus remain unanswered. To place Venus into its proper context with respect to Mars and Earth, it is necessary to obtain new measurements that address top issues identified in the National Research Council (NRC) Solar System Decadal Survey: (1) evolution of the atmosphere, history of climate, and evidence of past hydrologic cycles; (2) history of volatiles and sedimentary cycles; and (3) planetary surface evolution. To answer these questions, new measurements are needed. First and foremost, in situ noble gas measurements are needed to constrain solar system formation and Venus evolution. In particular, the isotopic ratios of Xe and Kr can provide unique insights into planetary accretion. Isotopic measurements of nitrogen (15N/14N) will place important constraints on atmospheric loss processes. Current knowledge of this ratio has a substantial uncertainty of ×20%. VEx observations of hydrogen isotopes indicate the D/H ratio above the clouds is substantially greater than measured by Pioneer Venus, and varies with height. High precision measurements of the vertical distribution of the D/H isotopic ratio below the cloud layers will provide constraints on models of the climate history of water on Venus. The majority of atmospheric mass is located below the clouds. Current data suggest intense interaction among atmospheric gases down to the surface. The haze within the cloud region of unknown composition plays a central role in the radiative balance. Photochemically-derived species (H2SO4, OCS, CO, Sn) are subjected to thermochemical reactions below the clouds, especially within 30 km of the surface. Competing temperature-pressure dependent reactions and atmospheric circulation may cause vertical and latitudinal gradients of chemically-active trace gases (e.g., SO2, H2S, OCS, CO). Measurements of the chemical composition of the near-surface atmosphere can be used to evaluate the stability of primary and secondary minerals and can help to understand chemistry of atmosphere-surface interactions. However, concentrations of many trace species have never been measured below ~30 km, and multiple in situ measurements are required to evaluate chemical processes and cycles of volatiles, which can only be accomplished with deep entry probes. Current lack of understanding about Venus not only limits our understanding of evolutionary pathways Earth could experience, but also suggests that we are ill-equipped to understand the evolution of star systems with similar-sized planets.

Revealing the long-term landscape evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin, Brazil and Namibia, by thermokinematic numerical modeling using the software code Pecube.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stippich, Christian; Glasmacher, Ulrich Anton; Hackspacher, Peter

2015-04-01

The aim of the research is to quantify the long-term landscape evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in SE-Brazil and NW-Namibia. Excellent onshore outcrop conditions and complete rift to post-rift archives between Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre and in the transition from Namibia to Angola (onshore Walvis ridge) allow a high precision quantification of exhumation, and uplift rates, influencing physical parameters, long-term acting forces, and process-response systems. Research will integrate the published and partly published thermochronological data from Brazil and Namibia, and test lately published new concepts on causes of long-term landscape evolution at rifted margins. The climate-continental margin-mantle coupled process-response system is caused by the interaction between endogenous and exogenous forces, which are related to the mantle-process driven rift - drift - passive continental margin evolution of the South Atlantic, and the climate change since the Early/Late Cretaceous climate maximum. Special emphasis will be given to the influence of long-living transform faults such as the Florianopolis Fracture Zone (FFZ) on the long-term topography evolution of the SAPCM's. A long-term landscape evolution model with process rates will be achieved by thermo-kinematic 3-D modeling (software code PECUBE1,2 and FastScape3). Testing model solutions obtained for a multidimensional parameter space against the real thermochronological and geomorphological data set, the most likely combinations of parameter rates, and values can be constrained. The data and models will allow separating the exogenous and endogenous forces and their process rates. References 1. Braun, J., 2003. Pecube: A new finite element code to solve the 3D heat transport equation including the effects of a time-varying, finite amplitude surface topography. Computers and Geosciences, v.29, pp.787-794. 2. Braun, J., van der Beek, P., Valla, P., Robert, X., Herman, F., Goltzbacj, C., Pedersen, V., Perry, C., Simon-Labric, T., Prigent, C. 2012. Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE. Tectonophysics, v.524-525, pp.1-28. 3. Braun, J. and Willett, S.D., 2013. A very efficient, O(n), implicit and parallel method to solve the basic stream power law equation governing fluvial incision and landscape evolution. Geomorphology, v.180-181, 170-179.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

Punctuated Holocene climate of Vestfirðir, Iceland, linked to internal/external variables and oceanographic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, David J.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.

2018-06-01

Emerging Holocene paleoclimate datasets point to a non-linear response of Icelandic climate against a background of steady orbital cooling. The Vestfirðir peninsula (NW Iceland) is an ideal target for continued climate reconstructions due to the presence of a small ice cap (Drangajökull) and numerous lakes, which provide two independent means to evaluate existing Icelandic climate records and to constrain the forcing mechanisms behind centennial-scale cold anomalies. Here, we present new evidence for Holocene expansions of Drangajökull based on 14C dates from entombed dead vegetation as well as two continuous Holocene lake sediment records. Lake sediments were analyzed for both bulk physical (MS) and biological (%TOC, δ13C, C/N, and BSi) parameters. Composite BSi and C/N records from the two lakes yield a sub-centennial qualitative perspective on algal (diatom) productivity and terrestrial landscape stability, respectively. The Vestfirðir lake proxies suggest initiation of the Holocene Thermal Maximum by ∼8.8 ka with subsequent and pronounced cooling not apparent until ∼3 ka. Synchronous periods of reduced algal productivity and accelerated landscape instability point to cold anomalies centered at ∼8.2, 6.6, 4.2, 3.3, 2.3, 1.8, 1, and 0.25 ka. Triggers for cold anomalies are linked to variable combinations of freshwater pulses, low total solar irradiance, explosive and effusive volcanism, and internal modes of climate variability, with cooling likely sustained by ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. The climate evolution reflected by our glacial and organic proxy records corresponds closely to marine records from the North Iceland Shelf.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

2016-03-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, D.; Vigneault, H.; Lefebvre, R.; Savard, M. M.; Ballard, J.-M.; Qian, B.

2015-08-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentrations could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. Climate change alone (practices maintained at their current level) would contribute only 0 to 6 % to that increase according to the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

2018-01-01

The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group

2012-04-01

Throughout the world, climate services are required to address urgent needs for climate-informed decision-making, policy and planning. These needs were explored in detail at the first International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS), held in New York in October 2011. After lengthy discussions of needs and capabilities, the conference culminated in the creation of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). The CSP is an informal interdisciplinary network of climate information users, providers, donors and researchers interested in improving the provision and development of climate services worldwide. Members of the Climate Services Partnership work together to share knowledge, accelerate learning, develop new capacities, and establish good practices. These collaborative efforts will inform and support the evolution and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The Climate Services Partnership focuses its efforts on three levels. These include: 1. encouraging and sustaining connections between climate information providers, users, donors, and researchers 2. gathering, synthesizing and disseminating current knowledge on climate services by way of an online knowledge management platform 3. generating new knowledge on critical topics in climate service development and provision, through the creation of focused working groups on specific topics To date, the Climate Services Partnership has made progress on all three fronts. Connections have been fostered through outreach at major international conferences and professional societies. The CSP also maintains a website and a monthly newsletter, which serves as a resource for those interested in climate services. The second International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS2) will be held in Berlin in September. The CSP has also created a knowledge capture system that gathers and disseminates a wide range of information related to the development and provision of climate services. This includes an online-searchable database that allows users to see what climate services activities are underway in what locations, to gather and analyze information. As part of the knowledge capture system, more than 10 CSP members are currently developing case studies to describe specific climate services activities; in a few cases, this involves in-depth evaluations of the service in question. Finally, the Economics Working Group of the Climate Services Partnership is analyzing previous methods to economically value climate services in hopes of generating knew knowledge regarding the methods are best suited to assessing the benefits associated with various climate services. Other groups are working to develop guidance materials for the development and use of climate information to support decision and policy-making. The Climate Services Partnership is an open, informal network that builds on activities that are already underway and works to create synergies to improve the provision and development for climate services. Its members currently number more than 50 organizations; it seeks new participants and new initiatives.

Recent evolution and divergence among populations of a rare Mexican endemic, Chihuahua spruce, following holocene climatic warming

Treesearch

F. Thomas Ledig; Virginia Jacob-Cervantes; Paul D. Hodgskiss

1997-01-01

Fragmentation and reduction in population size are expected to reduce genetic diversity. However, examples from natural populations of forest trees are scarce. The range of Chihuahua spruce retreated northward and fragmented coincident with the warming climate that marked the early Holocene. The isolated populations vary from 15 to 2441 trees, which provided an...

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa

PubMed Central

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region. PMID:28290474

Extensive wet episodes in Late Glacial Australia resulting from high-latitude forcings

PubMed Central

Bayon, Germain; De Deckker, Patrick; Magee, John W.; Germain, Yoan; Bermell, Sylvain; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Norman, Marc D.

2017-01-01

Millennial-scale cooling events termed Heinrich Stadials punctuated Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. Latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are thought to have rapidly propagated these abrupt climatic signals southward, influencing the evolution of Southern Hemisphere climates and contributing to major reorganisation of the global ocean-atmosphere system. Here, we use neodymium isotopes from a marine sediment core to reconstruct the hydroclimatic evolution of subtropical Australia between 90 to 20 thousand years ago. We find a strong correlation between our sediment provenance proxy data and records for western Pacific tropical precipitations and Australian palaeolakes, which indicates that Northern Hemisphere cooling phases were accompanied by pronounced excursions of the ITCZ and associated rainfall as far south as about 32°S. Comparatively, however, each of these humid periods lasted substantially longer than the mean duration of Heinrich Stadials, overlapping with subsequent warming phases of the southern high-latitudes recorded in Antarctic ice cores. In addition to ITCZ-driven hydroclimate forcing, we infer that changes in Southern Ocean climate also played an important role in regulating late glacial atmospheric patterns of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical regions.

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa.

PubMed

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-03-14

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth's climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

Diversification and the evolution of dispersal ability in the tribe Brassiceae (Brassicaceae).

PubMed

Willis, C G; Hall, J C; Rubio de Casas, R; Wang, T Y; Donohue, K

2014-12-01

Dispersal and establishment ability can influence evolutionary processes such as geographic isolation, adaptive divergence and extinction probability. Through these population-level dynamics, dispersal ability may also influence macro-evolutionary processes such as species distributions and diversification. This study examined patterns of evolution of dispersal-related fruit traits, and how the evolution of these traits is correlated with shifts in geographic range size, habitat and diversification rates in the tribe Brassiceae (Brassicaceae). The phylogenetic analysis included 72 taxa sampled from across the Brassiceae and included both nuclear and chloroplast markers. Dispersal-related fruit characters were scored and climate information for each taxon was retrieved from a database. Correlations between fruit traits, seed characters, habitat, range and climate were determined, together with trait-dependent diversification rates. It was found that the evolution of traits associated with limited dispersal evolved only in association with compensatory traits that increase dispersal ability. The evolution of increased dispersal ability occurred in multiple ways through the correlated evolution of different combinations of fruit traits. The evolution of traits that increase dispersal ability was in turn associated with larger seed size, increased geographic range size and higher diversification rates. This study provides evidence that the evolution of increased dispersal ability and larger seed size, which may increase establishment ability, can also influence macro-evolutionary processes, possibly by increasing the propensity for long-distance dispersal. In particular, it may increase speciation and consequent diversification rates by increasing the likelihood of geographic and thereby reproductive isolation. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The evolution of scaling laws in the sea ice floe size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horvat, Christopher; Tziperman, Eli

2017-09-01

The sub-gridscale floe size and thickness distribution (FSTD) is an emerging climate variable, playing a leading-order role in the coupling between sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere. The FSTD, however, is difficult to measure given the vast range of horizontal scales of individual floes, leading to the common use of power-law scaling to describe it. The evolution of a coupled mixed-layer-FSTD model of a typical marginal ice zone is explicitly simulated here, to develop a deeper understanding of how processes active at the floe scale may or may not lead to scaling laws in the floe size distribution. The time evolution of mean quantities obtained from the FSTD (sea ice concentration, mean thickness, volume) is complex even in simple scenarios, suggesting that these quantities, which affect climate feedbacks, should be carefully calculated in climate models. The emergence of FSTDs with multiple separate power-law regimes, as seen in observations, is found to be due to the combination of multiple scale-selective processes. Limitations in assuming a power-law FSTD are carefully analyzed, applying methods used in observations to FSTD model output. Two important sources of error are identified that may lead to model biases: one when observing an insufficiently small range of floe sizes, and one from the fact that floe-scale processes often do not produce power-law behavior. These two sources of error may easily lead to biases in mean quantities derived from the FSTD of greater than 100%, and therefore biases in modeled sea ice evolution.

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2017-11-30

Here, the temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO 2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity andmore » weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO 2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.« less

MEDUSA (Martian Environmental DUst Systematic Analyser) for the monitoring of the Martian atmospheric dust and water vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colangeli, L.; Battaglia, R.; della Corte, V.; Esposito, F.; Ferrini, G.; Mazzotta Epifani, E.; Palomba, E.; Palumbo, P.; Panizza, A.; Rotundi, A.

2004-03-01

The knowledge of Martian airborne dust properties and about mechanisms of dust settling/raising to/from the surface are important to determine climate and surface evolution on Mars. Water is an important tracer of climatic changes on long time-scales and is strictly related to the presence of life forms. The study in situ of dust and water vapour properties and evolution in Martian atmosphere is useful to trace back the planet climate, also in function of life form development. This investigation is also appropriate in preparation to future manned exploration of the planet (in relation to hazardous conditions). In this work we discuss the concept of the MEDUSA (Martian Environmental Dust Analyser) experiment that is designed to provide data on grain size and mass distribution, number density, velocity and scattering properties and on water vapour concentration. The instrument is a multisensor system based on optical and impact detection of grains, coupled with cumulative deposition sensors.

Occlusal enamel complexity in middle miocene to holocene equids (Equidae: Perissodactyla) of North America.

PubMed

Famoso, Nicholas A; Davis, Edward Byrd

2014-01-01

Four groups of equids, "Anchitheriinae," Merychippine-grade Equinae, Hipparionini, and Equini, coexisted in the middle Miocene, but only the Equini remains after 16 Myr of evolution and extinction. Each group is distinct in its occlusal enamel pattern. These patterns have been compared qualitatively but rarely quantitatively. The processes influencing the evolution of these occlusal patterns have not been thoroughly investigated with respect to phylogeny, tooth position, and climate through geologic time. We investigated Occlusal Enamel Index, a quantitative method for the analysis of the complexity of occlusal patterns. We used analyses of variance and an analysis of co-variance to test whether equid teeth increase resistive cutting area for food processing during mastication, as expressed in occlusal enamel complexity, in response to increased abrasion in their diet. Results suggest that occlusal enamel complexity was influenced by climate, phylogeny, and tooth position through time. Occlusal enamel complexity in middle Miocene to Modern horses increased as the animals experienced increased tooth abrasion and a cooling climate.

Occlusal Enamel Complexity in Middle Miocene to Holocene Equids (Equidae: Perissodactyla) of North America

PubMed Central

Famoso, Nicholas A.; Davis, Edward Byrd

2014-01-01

Four groups of equids, “Anchitheriinae,” Merychippine-grade Equinae, Hipparionini, and Equini, coexisted in the middle Miocene, but only the Equini remains after 16 Myr of evolution and extinction. Each group is distinct in its occlusal enamel pattern. These patterns have been compared qualitatively but rarely quantitatively. The processes influencing the evolution of these occlusal patterns have not been thoroughly investigated with respect to phylogeny, tooth position, and climate through geologic time. We investigated Occlusal Enamel Index, a quantitative method for the analysis of the complexity of occlusal patterns. We used analyses of variance and an analysis of co-variance to test whether equid teeth increase resistive cutting area for food processing during mastication, as expressed in occlusal enamel complexity, in response to increased abrasion in their diet. Results suggest that occlusal enamel complexity was influenced by climate, phylogeny, and tooth position through time. Occlusal enamel complexity in middle Miocene to Modern horses increased as the animals experienced increased tooth abrasion and a cooling climate. PMID:24587267

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Singh, Hansi A.

2018-01-01

The temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity and weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

Here, the temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO 2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity andmore » weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO 2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.« less

Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change.

PubMed

Buckley, James; Bridle, Jon R

2014-10-01

The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Multi-level human evolution: ecological patterns in hominin phylogeny.

PubMed

Parravicini, Andrea; Pievani, Telmo

2016-06-20

Evolution is a process that occurs at many different levels, from genes to ecosystems. Genetic variations and ecological pressures are hence two sides of the same coin; but due both to fragmentary evidence and to the influence of a gene-centered and gradualistic approach to evolutionary phenomena, the field of paleoanthropology has been slow to take the role of macro-evolutionary patterns (i.e. ecological and biogeographical at large scale) seriously. However, several very recent findings in paleoanthropology stress both climate instability and ecological disturbance as key factors affecting the highly branching hominin phylogeny, from the earliest hominins to the appearance of cognitively modern humans. Allopatric speciation due to geographic displacement, turnover-pulses of species, adaptive radiation, mosaic evolution of traits in several coeval species, bursts of behavioral innovation, serial dispersals out of Africa, are just some of the macro-evolutionary patterns emerging from the field. The multilevel approach to evolution proposed by paleontologist Niles Eldredge is adopted here as interpretative tool, and has yielded a larger picture of human evolution that integrates different levels of evolutionary change, from local adaptations in limited ecological niches to dispersal phenotypes able to colonize an unprecedented range of ecosystems. Changes in global climate and Earth's surface most greatly affected human evolution. Precisely because it is cognitively hard for us to appreciate the long-term common destiny we share with the whole biosphere, it is particularly valuable to highlight the accumulating evidence that human evolution has been deeply affected by global ecological changes that transformed our African continent of origin.

Characterizing Organic Aerosol Processes and Climatically Relevant Properties via Advanced and Integrated Analyses of Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Datasets from DOE Campaigns and ACRF Measurements. Final report for DE-SC0007178

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Qi

Organic aerosols (OA) are an important but poorly characterized component of the earth’s climate system. Enormous complexities commonly associated with OA composition and life cycle processes have significantly complicated the simulation and quantification of aerosol effects. To unravel these complexities and improve understanding of the properties, sources, formation, evolution processes, and radiative properties of atmospheric OA, we propose to perform advanced and integrated analyses of multiple DOE aerosol mass spectrometry datasets, including two high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) datasets from intensive field campaigns on the aerosol life cycle and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) datasets from long-term routinemore » measurement programs at ACRF sites. In this project, we will focus on 1) characterizing the chemical (i.e., composition, organic elemental ratios), physical (i.e., size distribution and volatility), and radiative (i.e., sub- and super-saturated growth) properties of organic aerosols, 2) examining the correlations of these properties with different source and process regimes (e.g., primary, secondary, urban, biogenic, biomass burning, marine, or mixtures), 3) quantifying the evolutions of these properties as a function of photochemical processing, 4) identifying and characterizing special cases for important processes such as SOA formation and new particle formation and growth, and 5) correlating size-resolved aerosol chemistry with measurements of radiative properties of aerosols to determine the climatically relevant properties of OA and characterize the relationship between these properties and processes of atmospheric aerosol organics. Our primary goal is to improve a process-level understanding of the life cycle of organic aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere. We will also aim at bridging between observations and models via synthesizing and translating the results and insights generated from this research into data products and formulations that may be directly used to inform, improve, and evaluate regional and global models. In addition, we will continue our current very active collaborations with several modeling groups to enhance the use and interpretation of our data products. Overall, this research will contribute new data to improve quantification of the aerosol’s effects on climate and thus the achievement of ASR’s science goal of – “improving the fidelity and predictive capability of global climate models”.« less

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change from space (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-Francois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-04-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected so that the development of the products is adapted to the users. A first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated during phase I of the project (2011-2013). Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which is now available (see http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.org/products ). New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat, GFO, SARAL/AltiKa and CryoSat-2). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic signals). A significant improvement is observed compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

Monsoon Forecasting based on Imbalanced Classification Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Troncoso, Alicia; Asencio-Cortes, Gualberto; Vega, Inmaculada; Gallego, David

2017-04-01

Monsoonal systems are quasiperiodic processes of the climatic system that control seasonal precipitation over different regions of the world. The Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) is one of those monsoons and it is known to have a great impact both over the global climate and over the total precipitation of very densely populated areas. The interannual variability of the WNPSM along the last 50-60 years has been related to different climatic indices such as El Niño, El Niño Modoki, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Recently, a new and longer series characterizing the monthly evolution of the WNPSM, the WNP Directional Index (WNPDI), has been developed, extending its previous length from about 50 years to more than 100 years (1900-2007). Imbalanced classification techniques have been applied to the WNPDI in order to check the capability of traditional climate indices to capture and forecast the evolution of the WNPSM. The problem of forecasting has been transformed into a binary classification problem, in which the positive class represents the occurrence of an extreme monsoon event. Given that the number of extreme monsoons is much lower than the number of non-extreme monsoons, the resultant classification problem is highly imbalanced. The complete dataset is composed of 1296 instances, where only 71 (5.47%) samples correspond to extreme monsoons. Twenty predictor variables based on the cited climatic indices have been proposed, and namely, models based on trees, black box models such as neural networks, support vector machines and nearest neighbors, and finally ensemble-based techniques as random forests have been used in order to forecast the occurrence of extreme monsoons. It can be concluded that the methodology proposed here reports promising results according to the quality parameters evaluated and predicts extreme monsoons for a temporal horizon of a month with a high accuracy. From a climatological point of view, models based on trees show that the index of the El Niño Modoki in the months previous to an extreme monsoon acts as its best predictor. In most cases, the value of the Indian Ocean Dipole index acts as a second order classifier. But El Niño index, more frequently, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, only in one case, do also modulate the intensity of the WNPSM in some cases.

Models and observations of Arctic melt ponds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, K. M.

2016-12-01

During the Arctic melt season, the sea ice surface undergoes a striking transformation from vast expanses of snow covered ice to complex mosaics of ice and melt ponds. Sea ice albedo, a key parameter in climate modeling, is largely determined by the complex evolution of melt pond configurations. In fact, ice-albedo feedback has played a significant role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However, understanding melt pond evolution remains a challenge to improving climate projections. It has been found that as the ponds grow and coalesce, the fractal dimension of their boundaries undergoes a transition from 1 to about 2, around a critical length scale of 100 square meters in area. As the ponds evolve they take complex, self-similar shapes with boundaries resembling space-filling curves. I will outline how mathematical models of composite materials and statistical physics, such as percolation and Ising models, are being used to describe this evolution and predict key geometrical parameters that agree very closely with observations.

Geochemical Signature of Natural Water Recharge in the Jungar Basin and Its Response to Climate.

PubMed

Zhu, Bingqi; Yu, Jingjie; Rioual, Patrick

2016-01-01

This paper analyzed the physico-chemical characteristics of natural waters in a drainage system of the Jungar Basin, northwestern China to identify chemical evolution and recharge mechanisms of natural waters in an arid environment. The waters studied are different in mineralization, but are typically carbonate rivers and alkaline in nature. No Cl-dominated water type occurs, indicating an early stage of water evolution. Regolith and geomorphological parameters controlling ground-surface temperature may play a large role in the geological evolution of the water. Three main morphological and hydrological units are reflected in water physico-chemistry. Climate influences the salinization of natural waters substantially. Direct recharge from seasonal snow and ice-melt water and infiltration of rain to the ground are significant recharge processes for natural waters, but recharge from potential deep groundwater may be less important. The enrichment of ions in lakes has been mainly caused by evaporation rather than through the quality change of the recharged water.

Mid Pleistocene foraminiferal mass extinction coupled with phytoplankton evolution

PubMed Central

Kender, Sev; McClymont, Erin L.; Elmore, Aurora C.; Emanuele, Dario; Leng, Melanie J.; Elderfield, Henry

2016-01-01

Understanding the interaction between climate and biotic evolution is crucial for deciphering the sensitivity of life. An enigmatic mass extinction occurred in the deep oceans during the Mid Pleistocene, with a loss of over 100 species (20%) of sea floor calcareous foraminifera. An evolutionarily conservative group, benthic foraminifera often comprise >50% of eukaryote biomass on the deep-ocean floor. Here we test extinction hypotheses (temperature, corrosiveness and productivity) in the Tasman Sea, using geochemistry and micropalaeontology, and find evidence from several globally distributed sites that the extinction was caused by a change in phytoplankton food source. Coccolithophore evolution may have enhanced the seasonal ‘bloom' nature of primary productivity and fundamentally shifted it towards a more intra-annually variable state at ∼0.8 Ma. Our results highlight intra-annual variability as a potential new consideration for Mid Pleistocene global biogeochemical climate models, and imply that deep-sea biota may be sensitive to future changes in productivity. PMID:27311937

Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

2010-12-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic simulations, but also an overall trend to an increase in frequency and duration but less significantly in intensity. Further work will be carried out in order to assess the sensitivity of the Paris urban climate to different future heat wave events. Synthetic HW events will be built from future HW features as duration and intensity, and will be simulated using a urban-weather model. Then, the impacts in terms of energy consumption and bioclimatic comfort will be analysed and adaptation strategies will be proposed.

Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, Ivan

2017-02-01

Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Climate Change Education Today in K-12: What's Happening in the Earth and Space Science Classroom?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, M. A.; National Earth Science Teachers Association

2011-12-01

Climate change is a highly interdisciplinary topic, involving not only multiple fields of science, but also social science and the humanities. There are many aspects of climate change science that make it particularly well-suited for exploration in the K-12 setting, including opportunities to explore the unifying processes of science such as complex systems, models, observations, change and evolution. Furthermore, this field of science offers the opportunity to observe the nature of science in action - including how scientists develop and improve their understanding through research and debate. Finally, climate change is inherently highly relevant to students - indeed, students today will need to deal with the consequences of the climate change. The science of climate change is clearly present in current science education standards, both at the National level as well as in the majority of states. Nonetheless, a significant number of teachers across the country report difficulties addressing climate change in the classroom. The National Earth Science Teachers Association has conducted several surveys of Earth and space science educators across the country over the past several years on a number of issues, including their needs and concerns, including their experience of external influences on what they teach. While the number of teachers that report external pressures to not teach climate change science are in the minority (and less than the pressure to not teach evolution and related topics), our results suggest that this pressure against climate change science in the K-12 classroom has grown over the past several years. Some teachers report being threatened by parents, being encouraged by administrators to not teach the subject, and a belief that the "two sides" of climate change should be taught. Survey results indicate that teachers in religious or politically-conservative districts are more likely to report difficulties in teaching about climate change than in other areas of the country. This presentation will provide an overview of our most recent survey results on climate change education in the K-12 Earth and space science classroom, including highlighting some of the strategies that teachers are using to bring this critically important area of science to their students.

Evaluating Metrics of Drainage Divide Mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forte, A. M.; Whipple, K. X.; DiBiase, R.; Gasparini, N. M.; Ouimet, W. B.

2016-12-01

Watersheds are the fundamental organizing units in landscapes and thus the controls on drainage divide location and mobility are an essential facet of landscape evolution. Additionally, many common topographic analyses fundamentally assume that river network topology and divide locations are largely static, allowing channel profile form to be interpreted in terms of spatio-temporal patterns of rock uplift rate relative to baselevel, climate, or rock properties. Recently however, it has been suggested that drainage divides are more mobile than previously thought and that divide mobility, and resulting changes in drainage area, can potentially induce changes to fluvial topography comparable to spatio-temporal variation in rock uplift, climate, or rock properties. Ultimately, reliable metrics are needed to diagnose the mobility of divides. One such recently proposed metric is cross-divide contrasts in `chi', a measure of the current topology of the drainage network, but cross-divide contrasts in a number of topographic metrics show promise. Here we use a series of landscape evolution modeling scenarios in which we induce divide mobility under different conditions to test the utility of a suite of plausible topographic metrics of divide mobility and compare these to natural examples. Specifically, we test cross-divide contrasts in mean slope, mean local relief, channel bed elevation at a reference drainage area, and chi. Our results highlight that cross-divide contrasts in chi can only be accurately interpreted in terms of divide mobility when uplift, rock erodibility, climate, and base-level are uniform across both river networks on either side of the divide. This is problematic for application of this metric to natural landscapes as (1) uniformity of all of these parameters is exceedingly unlikely and (2) quantifying the spatial patterns of these parameters is difficult. Consequently, as shown here for both simulated and natural landscapes, simple measures of cross-divide contrasts in mean slope, mean local relief, and channel bed elevation at a reference drainage area are more robust metrics of divide mobility, correctly identifying stable or mobile divides independent of cross-divide differences in rock uplift, climate, erodibility or baselevel.

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain.

PubMed

Sainz-Elipe, Sandra; Latorre, Jose Manuel; Escosa, Raul; Masià, Montserrat; Fuentes, Marius Vicent; Mas-Coma, Santiago; Bargues, Maria Dolores

2010-07-31

International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area.

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. Methods The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Results Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. Conclusions The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area. PMID:20673367

Evaluation of the biological role in the shore platform evolution. Development of specific methodology and first results.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, Mario; Ramos-Pereira, Ana; Moura, Delminda; Trindade, Jorge; Gusmão, Francisca; Viegas, José; Santana, Paulo

2010-05-01

The formation and the evolution of shore platforms are dependent on several physical, chemical and biological processes. The weight of each of these processes is changeable not only from coast to coast but also within each shore platform. It depends on geographical, geomorphological, climatic and wave climate factors. In the lower intertidal zone of many rock coasts of the world, the biological cover of the surface is extremely high. This almost permanent wrap points out to a very strong biological influence on the downwearing rates and the erosive rhythm of these strips of the shore platforms. Yet, although there are several studies on the erosive ability of the individuals of each species that are found here, analyzed separately, research on the interactions among species with erosive and protective role in the present evolution of shore platforms are rare. The goal of the BISHOP Project - Bioprotection and bioerosion on shore platforms in the Algarve and Estremadura (Portugal South and West Coast) - is precisely to evaluate the bioprotective and bioerosive role of the communities of macro-organisms in the evolution of shore platforms cut in different type of rocks and in assorted environments. With that purpose, it was necessary to develop specific methodology. To quantify the downwearing of the shore platform, we used a TMEM (Traversing Micro-Erosion Meter) with an accuracy of 0,005mm, and capable of measuring 255 points in a 117 cm2 area. Four experimental places were chosen: two at calcarenite shore platforms of the Portuguese south coast, in a coastal zone exposed to the south and sheltered from the waves; and two in the Portuguese Estremadura, facing west on a well exposed coast to the North Atlantic energetic waves, on shore platforms cut in marly limestone. At each place, two pairs of monitoring areas were installed. For each pair, the same methodology was used. At the beginning, it was necessary to completely clean the biological cover of the two areas in order to perform the first measurement. Then, one of the areas is maintained without any biological cover, and is regularly monitored while the other is leaved without any interference. At the end of the project period of three years, both areas will be monitored and the results compared. At the same time, a very detailed survey of the biological cover of the studied places is carried on. The methodology and the first year results will be presented and discussed.

Andean subduction orogeny: feedbacks between tectonics, relief evolution and global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacassin, Robin; Armijo, Rolando; Coudurier-Curveur, Aurélie; Carrizo, Daniel

2016-04-01

The Andean subduction margin, largest tectonic relief on the Earth (13 km vertically from the trench to the Altiplano) has a stepped morphology, which results of the evolution over the past 50 Myr of two parallel flat-ramp thrust systems, at the - previously unidentified - West Andean Thrust (WAT), and at the subduction interface. The evolution of those thrusts appears concomitant with increasing aridity in the Atacama Desert, which keeps a large-scale record of interplaying tectonics and Cenozoic climate change. The coastal morphology is dominated by the Atacama Bench, a giant uplifted terrace at 1-2km asl. Geomorphic and climatic data, numerical experiments of drainage formation are consistent with the development of a flat Atacama morphology close to sea level, interrupted at ≤10 Ma by tectonic uplift prevailing to the present. This suggests recent trench-ward relief growth by incorporation of the coastal Atacama Bench to the Andes reliefs. Thrust splay structures and other complexities above the subduction interface may explain this relief growth, as well as the distribution of asperities under the oceanward forearc, and the down-dip segmentation of coupling and seismicity on the megathrust. Combining those results with geological knowledge at the scale of the whole Central Andes, we show that the Andean orogeny results from protracted processes of bivergent crustal shortening in a wide region squeezed between the rigid Marginal Block and the S America Plate. The overall growth curve of Andean orogeny over the past 50 Myr appears synchronous with the onset of the "ramp-shaped" temperature decrease since the Early Eocene climatic optimum. Andean growth and global cooling may have operated under the same forcing mechanism at plate-scale, involving viscous flow in the mantle. But Andean growth appears modulated by climatic feedbacks causative of stepwise reductions of erosive power over the Andean margin. The first of such events is coeval with Late Eocene cooling and promoted the eastward propagation of deformation towards the continent interior. The second one, coeval with Late Miocene cooling, is associated with the establishment of hyper-aridity in the Atacama Desert, and is responsible of a tectonic "freezing" which promoted since the triggering of subduction of the Brazilian craton, the Andean bivergent growth, and rapid uplift throughout the Andes-Altiplano. Armijo R., Lacassin R., Coudurier-Curveur A., Carrizo D., Coupled tectonic evolution of Andean orogeny and global climate, Earth Science Reviews, 143, 1-35, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.01.005, 2015.

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika; ...

2016-09-23

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis in a Changing Climate: A Software Package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Gilleland, E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies show that climatic extremes have increased substantially in the second half of the 20th century. For this reason, analysis of extremes under a nonstationary assumption has received a great deal of attention. This paper presents a software package developed for estimation of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes in a changing climate. This MATLAB software package offers tools for analysis of climate extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. The Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (hereafter, NEVA) provides an efficient and generalized framework for analyzing extremes using Bayesian inference. NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters using a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) which utilizes the genetic algorithm Differential Evolution (DE) for global optimization over the real parameter space with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and has the advantage of simplicity, speed of calculation and convergence over conventional MCMC. NEVA also offers the confidence interval and uncertainty bounds of estimated return levels based on the sampled parameters. NEVA integrates extreme value design concepts, data analysis tools, optimization and visualization, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis extremes in geosciences. The generalized input and output files of this software package make it attractive for users from across different fields. Both stationary and nonstationary components of the package are validated for a number of case studies using empirical return levels. The results show that NEVA reliably describes extremes and their return levels.

Mitigation win-win

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Dominic; Lucas, Amanda; Barnes, Andrew

2013-07-01

Win-win messages regarding climate change mitigation policies in agriculture tend to oversimplify farmer motivation. Contributions from psychology, cultural evolution and behavioural economics should help to design more effective policy.

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

DOE PAGES

Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; ...

2014-02-24

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as patternmore » scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. In conclusion, it may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.« less

Climate and health: observation and modeling of malaria in the Ferlo (Senegal).

PubMed

Diouf, Ibrahima; Deme, Abdoulaye; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Cissé, Moustapha

2013-01-01

The aim of this work, undertaken in the framework of QWeCI (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on health in the developing countries) project, is to study how climate variability could influence malaria seasonal incidence. It will also assess the evolution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria by simulation analysis of climate models according to various climate scenarios for the next years. Climate variability seems to be determinant for the risk of malaria development (Freeman and Bradley, 1996 [1], Lindsay and Birley, 1996 [2], Kuhn et al., 2005 [3]). Climate can impact on the epidemiology of malaria by several mechanisms, directly, via the development rates and survival of both pathogens and vectors, and indirectly, through changes in vegetation and land surface characteristics such as the variability of breeding sites like ponds. Copyright © 2013 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Lateral variations in lithospheric and landscape evolution at both ends of the Himalaya-Tibet orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeitler, P. K.; Schmidt, J. L.; Meltzer, A.

2015-12-01

At the broadest scale, like many orogens the Himalaya encompass a range of orogenic features that are remarkably similar along much of the length of the mountain belt and its neighboring terranes. At one scale of consideration, these similarities appear to be a signal that fundamental processes associated with lithospheric collision have been active. However, the vast size of the Himalaya and Tibet, the different climate regimes experienced by the orogen across time and space, and the along-strike variations in the continental and arc margins that faced one another before collision, make it at once remarkable that any similarities exist, and important to more critically evaluate their nature. The eastern and western Himalayan syntaxes confound any attempt to generalize too much about the Himalaya-Tibet orogen. By area these features occupy at least 25% of the orogenic belt, and compared to the "main" portions of the arc they show clear differences in their lithospheric structures, landscapes, and evolution. The boundary and initial conditions that shaped the eastern and western indentor corners were and are different, as is the nature and timing of erosional exhumation. Some of the most active geologic processes on Earth have recently been in play within the syntaxes, and the evolution of landscapes and fluvial systems, important in developing the sedimentary record of the Himalaya-Tibet system, has been complex and variable in space and time. Southeasternmost Tibet and the Lhasa Block in particular exemplify this complexity both in its complex topographic evolution linked to surface processes and climate, and in lateral variability in lithospheric structure. Taking a system viewpoint, an important question to debate is the degree to which there are features in the Himalaya-Tibet system that are robustly emergent, given the broad boundary conditions of the continental collision plus the suite of local and regional geodynamical processes that have operated during orogenesis. A related question is the degree to which the variability seen within the orogen represents important information about process that is exportable to other orogens, or is in effect tectonic noise contingent on local geologic details and secular changes.

An integrated multi-parameter monitoring approach for the quantification and mitigation of the climate change impact on the coasts of Eastern Crete, S. Aegean Sea (Project AKTAIA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghionis, George; Alexandrakis, George; Karditsa, Aikaterini; Sifnioti, Dafni; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Andreadis, Olympos; Petrakis, Stelios; Poulos, Serafim; Velegrakis, Adonis; Kampanis, Nikolaos; Lipakis, Michalis

2014-05-01

The AKTAIA project aims at the production of new knowledge regarding the forms of manifestation of the climate change and its influence on the stability and evolution of the coastal landforms along the shoreline of eastern Crete (approximate length: 757 km), taking into account the various aspects of human intervention. Aerial photographs, satellite images and orthophotomaps have been used to produce a detailed coastline map and to study the morphological characteristics of the coastal zone of Eastern Crete. More than 100 beach zones have been visited during three field campaigns, which included geomorphological and human intervention mapping, topographic, meteorological and oceanographic measurements and sedimentological sampling and observations. In addition, two pilot sites (one in the north and one in the south part of Crete) are being monitored, via the installation of coastal video monitoring systems, shore-based meteorological stations and wave-tide recorders installed in the nearshore zone. Detailed seafloor mapping with the use of side scan sonar and scuba diving and bathymetric surveys were conducted in the two pilot sites. Meteorological and oceanographic data from all existing land-based meteorological stations, oceanographic buoys and the ERA-interim dataset are used to determine the wind and wave climate of each beach. The collected climatic, sedimentological and coastal environmental data are being integrated in a GIS database that will be used to forecast the climatic trends in the area of Crete for the next decades and to model the impact of the climatic change on the future evolution of the coastal zone. New methodologies for the continuous monitoring of land-sea interaction and for the quantification of the loss of sensitive coastal zones due to sea-level rise and a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index for a comparative evaluation of the vulnerability of the coasts are being developed. Numerical modelling of the nearshore hydrodynamics and the associated sediment transport and beach morphodynamics, calibrated with in situ data, is used to predict beach response and vulnerability to different climate change scenarios. Finally, the socio-economic impact of the climate change on the coastal zone will be assessed and a management protocol for the coastal zone and for the mitigation of the climate change impact will be developed. The ultimate scope of the project is to benefit the society by providing current and high quality information on the consequences of the climate change, especially those related to sea-level rise, and on the available protection and mitigation measures. In addition, the technological product will help in the proper planning of the required actions and technical interventions, reducing the need for costly, incomplete and frequently redundant localized studies and the risk of unsuccessful interventions. Acknowledgements The project is supported by the Action "Cooperation 2007-2013" (09SYN-31-711 "AKTAIA") of the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the General Secretariat for Research and Technology (Hellenic Ministry of Education).

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosols: implications for global climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Manish

2017-04-01

Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the 'climate sensitivity'). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, often represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This presentation is based on a US Department of Energy Atmospheric Systems Research sponsored workshop, which highlighted key SOA processes overlooked in climate models that could greatly affect climate forcing estimates. We will highlight the importance of processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. We also highlight some of the recently discovered important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions such as effects of sulfur and NOx emissions on SOA. We will present examples of integrated model-measurement studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol mass and number with knowledge of particle properties such as volatility and viscosity. We will also highlight the importance of continuing efforts to rank the most influential SOA processes that affect climate forcing, but are often missing in climate models. Ultimately, gas- and particle-phase chemistry processes that capture the dynamic evolution of number and mass concentrations of SOA particles need to be accurately and efficiently represented in regional and global atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

2017-07-01

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

From a Culture of Bullying to a Climate of Support: The Evolution of Bullying Prevention and Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey; Bradshaw, Catherine P.

2015-01-01

In this commentary, Cornell and Bradshaw report decades of research in school psychology have brought attention to the culture of peer bullying and harassment that was a largely neglected problem in most schools. At the same time, research on the school environment has brought recognition to the importance of a safe and supportive school climate.…

Whole Planet Coupling from Climate to Core: Implications for the Evolution of Rocky Planets and their Prospects for Habitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, B. J.; Driscoll, P. E.

2015-12-01

Many factors have conspired to make Earth a home to complex life. Earth has abundant water due to a combination of factors, including orbital distance and the climate regulating feedbacks of the long-term carbon cycle. Earth has plate tectonics, which is crucial for maintaining long-term carbon cycling and may have been an important energy source for the origin of life in seafloor hydrothermal systems. Earth also has a strong magnetic field that shields the atmosphere from the solar wind and the surface from high-energy particles. Synthesizing recent work on these topics shows that water, a temperate climate, plate tectonics, and a strong magnetic field are linked together through a series of negative feedbacks that stabilize the system over geologic timescales. Although the physical mechanism behind plate tectonics on Earth is still poorly understood, climate is thought to be important. In particular, temperate surface temperatures are likely necessary for plate tectonics because they allow for liquid water that may be capable of significantly lowering lithospheric strength, increase convective stresses in the lithosphere, and enhance the effectiveness of "damage" processes such as grainsize reduction. Likewise, plate tectonics is probably crucial for maintaining a temperate climate on Earth through its role in facilitating the long-term carbon cycle, which regulates atmospheric CO2 levels. Therefore, the coupling between plate tectonics and climate is a feedback that is likely of first order importance for the evolution of rocky planets. Finally, plate tectonics is thought to be important for driving the geodynamo. Plate tectonics efficiently cools the mantle, leading to vigorous thermo-chemical convection in the outer core and dynamo action; without plate tectonics inefficient mantle cooling beneath a stagnant lid may prevent a long-lived magnetic field. As the magnetic field shields a planet's atmosphere from the solar wind, the magnetic field may be important for preserving hydrogen, and therefore water, on the surface. Thus whole planet coupling between the magnetic field, atmosphere, mantle, and core is possible. We lay out the basic physics governing whole planet coupling, and discuss the implications this coupling has for the evolution of rocky planets and their prospects for hosting life.

Climate-Rotation Feedback on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bills, Bruce G.

1999-01-01

A new model is presented for the coupled evolution of climate and rotation, as applied to Mars. It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation, and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 7) years. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Many important issues remain unresolved: What are the ages of the polar caps? What climatic periods are recorded in the polar layered deposits? What is the long term obliquity history? Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Distribution of mountain wetlands and their response to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Groups, northeastern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, N.; Sugai, T.

2017-12-01

Mountain wetlands, natural peatlands or lakes, with narrow catchment areas need abundant water supply and topography retaining water because of unstable water condition. This study examines wetland distribution with a focus on topography and snow accumulation, and discuss wetland evolution responding to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Group, northeastern Japan, where the East Asian winter monsoon brings heavier snow and where has many wetlands of varied origin: crater lakes and wetlands in nivation hollows on original volcanic surfaces, and wetlands in depressions formed by landslides. We identified and classified wetlands using aerial photographs and 5-m and 10-m digital elevation models. Wetlands on the original volcanic surfaces tend to be concentrated under the small scarps with much snow or on saddles of the mountain ridge where snowmelt from surrounding slopes maintains a moist environment. More lake type wetlands are formed in the saddle than in the snowdrifts. That may represent that the saddles can correct more recharge water and may be a more suitable topographic condition for wetland formation and endurance. On the contrary, wetlands on landslides lie at the foot of the scarps where spring water can be abundantly supplied, regardless of snow accumulation. We used lithological analysis, 14C dating, tephra age data, and carbon contents of wetland cores to compare the evolution of wetlands, one (the Oyachi wetland) within a huge landslide and three (the Appi Highland wetlands) outside of a landslide area. We suggest that the evolution of the wetland in the landslide is primarily influenced by landslide movements and stream dissection rather than climate change. In the Appi Highland wetlands, peatlands appeared much later and at the almost same time in the Medieval Warm Period. We suggest that the development of mountain wetlands outside of landslide areas is primarily related to climate changes. Responsiveness of mountain wetlands to climate change may be different depending on their water condition due to topography.

Dynamic modelling of future land use change under urbanization and climate change pressures: application to a case study in central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquemin, I.; Fontaine, C. M.; Dendoncker, N.; François, L.; De Vreese, R.; Marek, A.; Mortelmans, D.; Van Herzele, A.; Devillet, G.

2012-04-01

Projecting the future of the evolution of socio-ecological systems to analyse their sustainability under climate or other environmental changes is not straightforward. Current projections usually use process-oriented models describing the complex interactions within the physical/biological systems (ecosystems), while the socio-economic constraints are represented with the help of scenarios. However, the actual evolution can be expected to be much more complex, because of the mutual interactions between ecological and socio-economic systems. To represent these interactions, models must integrate the complex process of human decision at individual or society levels. Moreover, models must be spatially explicit, defining elementary spatial units on which can act both the physical factors and the human decision process. These spatial units (e.g., farm fields) must be described not only in terms of energy, water, carbon and nutrient flows, but also in terms of the flow of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) they provide to the society together with the management costs required to sustain them. The provision of EGS may be altered in the future in response to changes in the climate system and the environment, but also through various human pressures on the landscape such as urbanization, as well as through the reaction of human societies to these changes in EGS provision. In the VOTES ("Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space") project, we attempt to model this coupled socio-ecological system by combining a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with an agent-based model (ABM). The DVM (CARAIB; Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) model describes the evolution of physical and biological processes in the ecosystems, i.e. the impact of climate change and land management on the energy, water and carbon budgets, as well as the productivity of each simulated plant species present on each land unit. The original version of the model developed for natural vegetation has been upgraded to include crop systems and pastures. The ABM (Murray-Rust, Journal of Land Use Science, 6(2-3):83-99, 2011) describes the management choices (e.g., crop rotation, intensive agriculture or organic farming, etc) for each land plot, as well as the possible change in their affectation (e.g., conversion of farm fields to residential areas in response to urbanization), under different socio-economic contexts described in the storyline of three scenarios depicting general societal orientations (business-as-usual; market oriented; sustainability oriented). As a result, the ABM produces a dynamic evolution of land use and management options to be passed on to the DVM for further analysis. The outputs from the DVM allow evaluating quantitatively the provision of EGS by each land plot. This DVM-ABM modelling tool is thus able to describe the future evolution of land use and land cover, as well as of EGS production, in the context of socio-economic scenarios. The model is applied to a case study area covering four municipalities located in central Belgium close to Brussels and Leuven. The area is mostly composed of agricultural fields (crops and meadows), residential areas and a large protected forest (Meerdaalbos) and is subject to intense urbanization pressure due to the proximity to Brussels.

Orbital, tectonic and oceanographic controls on Pliocene climate and atmospheric circulation in Arctic Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panitz, Sina; Salzmann, Ulrich; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; Pound, Matthew J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Lunt, Daniel J.

2018-02-01

During the Pliocene Epoch, a stronger-than-present overturning circulation has been invoked to explain the enhanced warming in the Nordic Seas region in comparison to low to mid-latitude regions. While marine records are indicative of changes in the northward heat transport via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the Pliocene, the long-term terrestrial climate evolution and its driving mechanisms are poorly understood. We present the first two-million-year-long Pliocene pollen record for the Nordic Seas region from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 642B, reflecting vegetation and climate in Arctic Norway, to assess the influence of oceanographic and atmospheric controls on Pliocene climate evolution. The vegetation record reveals a long-term cooling trend in northern Norway, which might be linked to a general decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the studied interval, and climate oscillations primarily controlled by precession (23 kyr), obliquity (54 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) forcing. In addition, the record identifies four major shifts in Pliocene vegetation and climate mainly controlled by changes in northward heat transport via the NAC. Cool temperate (warmer than present) conditions prevailed between 5.03-4.30 Ma, 3.90-3.47 Ma and 3.29-3.16 Ma and boreal (similar to present) conditions predominated between 4.30-3.90 Ma, 3.47-3.29 and after 3.16 Ma. A distinct decline in sediment and pollen accumulation rates at c. 4.65 Ma is probably linked to changes in ocean currents, marine productivity and atmospheric circulation. Climate model simulations suggest that changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Early Pliocene could have affected atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas region, which would have affected the direction of pollen transport from Scandinavia to ODP Hole 642B.

Late Oligocene to Late Miocene Antarctic Climate Reconstructions Using Molecular and Isotopic Biomarker Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, B.; Mckay, R. M.; Bendle, J. A.; Naish, T.; Levy, R. H.; Ventura, G. T.; Moossen, H. M.; Krishnan, S.; Pagani, M.

2015-12-01

Major climate and environmental changes occurred during late Oligocene to the late Miocene when atmospheric CO2 ranged between 500 and 300ppm, indicating threshold response of Antarctic ice sheets and climate to relatively modest CO2 variations. This implies that the southern high latitudes are highly sensitive to feedbacks associated with changes in global ice sheet and sea-ice extent, as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This study focuses on two key intervals during the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet: (1) The Late Oligocene and the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, when the East Antarctic Ice Sheet expanded close to present day volume following an extended period of inferred warmth. (2) The Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO ~17-15 Ma), a period of global warmth and moderately elevated CO2 (350->500 ppm) which was subsequently followed by rapid cooling at 14-13.5 Ma. Reconstructions of climate and ice sheet variability, and thus an understanding of the various feedbacks that occurred during these intervals, are hampered by a lack of temperature and hydroclimate proxy data from the southern high latitudes. We present proxy climate reconstructions using terrestrial and marine organic biomarkers that provide new insights into Antarctica's climate evolution, using Antarctic drill cores and outcrop samples from a range of depositional settings. Bacterial ether-lipids have been analysed to determine terrestrial mean annual temperatures and soil pH (via the methylation and cyclisation indexes of branched tetraethers - MBT and CBT, respectively). Tetraether-lipids of crenarchaeota found in marine sediments sampled from continental shelves around Antarctica have been used to derive sea surface temperatures using the TEX86 index. Compound specific stable isotopes on n-alkanes sourced from terrestrial plants have been analysed to investigate changes in the hydrological and carbon cycles.

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely. PMID:26244662

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations.

PubMed

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; Jiménez-Munt, Ivone

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely.

Three keys to the radiation of angiosperms into freezing environments.

PubMed

Zanne, Amy E; Tank, David C; Cornwell, William K; Eastman, Jonathan M; Smith, Stephen A; FitzJohn, Richard G; McGlinn, Daniel J; O'Meara, Brian C; Moles, Angela T; Reich, Peter B; Royer, Dana L; Soltis, Douglas E; Stevens, Peter F; Westoby, Mark; Wright, Ian J; Aarssen, Lonnie; Bertin, Robert I; Calaminus, Andre; Govaerts, Rafaël; Hemmings, Frank; Leishman, Michelle R; Oleksyn, Jacek; Soltis, Pamela S; Swenson, Nathan G; Warman, Laura; Beaulieu, Jeremy M

2014-02-06

Early flowering plants are thought to have been woody species restricted to warm habitats. This lineage has since radiated into almost every climate, with manifold growth forms. As angiosperms spread and climate changed, they evolved mechanisms to cope with episodic freezing. To explore the evolution of traits underpinning the ability to persist in freezing conditions, we assembled a large species-level database of growth habit (woody or herbaceous; 49,064 species), as well as leaf phenology (evergreen or deciduous), diameter of hydraulic conduits (that is, xylem vessels and tracheids) and climate occupancies (exposure to freezing). To model the evolution of species' traits and climate occupancies, we combined these data with an unparalleled dated molecular phylogeny (32,223 species) for land plants. Here we show that woody clades successfully moved into freezing-prone environments by either possessing transport networks of small safe conduits and/or shutting down hydraulic function by dropping leaves during freezing. Herbaceous species largely avoided freezing periods by senescing cheaply constructed aboveground tissue. Growth habit has long been considered labile, but we find that growth habit was less labile than climate occupancy. Additionally, freezing environments were largely filled by lineages that had already become herbs or, when remaining woody, already had small conduits (that is, the trait evolved before the climate occupancy). By contrast, most deciduous woody lineages had an evolutionary shift to seasonally shedding their leaves only after exposure to freezing (that is, the climate occupancy evolved before the trait). For angiosperms to inhabit novel cold environments they had to gain new structural and functional trait solutions; our results suggest that many of these solutions were probably acquired before their foray into the cold.

Effect of the learning climate of residency programs on faculty's teaching performance as evaluated by residents.

PubMed

Lombarts, Kiki M J M H; Heineman, Maas Jan; Scherpbier, Albert J J A; Arah, Onyebuchi A

2014-01-01

To understand teaching performance of individual faculty, the climate in which residents' learning takes place, the learning climate, may be important. There is emerging evidence that specific climates do predict specific outcomes. Until now, the effect of learning climate on the performance of the individual faculty who actually do the teaching was unknown. THIS STUDY: (i) tested the hypothesis that a positive learning climate was associated with better teaching performance of individual faculty as evaluated by residents, and (ii) explored which dimensions of learning climate were associated with faculty's teaching performance. We conducted two cross-sectional questionnaire surveys amongst residents from 45 residency training programs and multiple specialties in 17 hospitals in the Netherlands. Residents evaluated the teaching performance of individual faculty using the robust System for Evaluating Teaching Qualities (SETQ) and evaluated the learning climate of residency programs using the Dutch Residency Educational Climate Test (D-RECT). The validated D-RECT questionnaire consisted of 11 subscales of learning climate. Main outcome measure was faculty's overall teaching (SETQ) score. We used multivariable adjusted linear mixed models to estimate the separate associations of overall learning climate and each of its subscales with faculty's teaching performance. In total 451 residents completed 3569 SETQ evaluations of 502 faculty. Residents also evaluated the learning climate of 45 residency programs in 17 hospitals in the Netherlands. Overall learning climate was positively associated with faculty's teaching performance (regression coefficient 0.54, 95% confidence interval: 0.37 to 0.71; P<0.001). Three out of 11 learning climate subscales were substantially associated with better teaching performance: 'coaching and assessment', 'work is adapted to residents' competence', and 'formal education'. Individual faculty's teaching performance evaluations are positively affected by better learning climate of residency programs.

Temporal Experiment for Storms and Tropical Systems Technology Demonstration (TEMPEST-D): Risk Reduction for 6U-Class Nanosatellite Constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reising, Steven C.; Gaier, Todd C.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Padmanabhan, Sharmila; Lim, Boon H.; Brown, Shannon T.; Heneghan, Cate; Chandra, Chandrasekar V.; Olson, Jon; Berg, Wesley

2016-04-01

TEMPEST-D will reduce the risk, cost and development time of a future constellation of 6U-Class nanosatellites to directly observe the time evolution of clouds and study the conditions that control the transition from non-precipitating to precipitating clouds using high-temporal resolution observations. TEMPEST-D provides passive millimeter-wave observations using a compact instrument that fits well within the size, weight and power (SWaP) requirements of the 6U-Class satellite architecture. TEMPEST-D is suitable for launch through NASA's CubeSat Launch Initiative (CSLI), for which it was selected in February 2015. By measuring the temporal evolution of clouds from the moment of the onset of precipitation, a TEMPEST constellation mission would improve our understanding of cloud processes and help to constrain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate models. Knowledge of clouds, cloud processes and precipitation is essential to our understanding of climate change. Uncertainties in the representation of key processes that govern the formation and dissipation of clouds and, in turn, control the global water and energy budgets lead to substantially different predictions of future climate in current models. TEMPEST millimeter-wave radiometers with five frequencies from 89 GHz to 182 GHz penetrate into the cloud to observe key changes as precipitation begins or ice accumulates inside the storm. The evolution of ice formation in clouds is important for climate prediction and a key factor in Earth's radiation budget. TEMPEST is designed to provide critical information on the time evolution of cloud and precipitation, yielding a first-order understanding of assumptions and uncertainties in current cloud parameterizations in general circulation models in diverse climate regimes. For a potential future one-year operational mission, five identical 6U-Class satellites would be deployed in the same orbital plane with 5- to 10-minute spacing deployed in an orbit similar to the International Space Station resupply missions, i.e. at ~400 km altitude and ~51° inclination. A one-year mission would capture 3 million observations of precipitation greater than 1 mm/hour rain rate, including at least 100,000 deep convective events. Passive drag-adjusting maneuvers would separate the five CubeSats in the same orbital plane by 5-10 minutes each, similar to deployment techniques to be used by NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite Systems (CYGNSS) mission.

The Global Observing System in the Assimilation Context

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reinecker, Michele M.; Gelaro, R.; Pawson, S.; Reichle, R.; McCarty, W.

2011-01-01

Weather and climate analyses and predictions all rely on the global observing system. However, the observing system, whether atmosphere, ocean, or land surface, yields a diverse set of incomplete observations of the different components of Earth s environment. Data assimilation systems are essential to synthesize the wide diversity of in situ and remotely sensed observations into four-dimensional state estimates by combining the various observations with model-based estimates. Assimilation, or associated tools and products, are also useful in providing guidance for the evolution of the observing system of the future. This paper provides a brief overview of the global observing system and information gleaned through assimilation tools, and presents some evaluations of observing system gaps and issues.

Landscape evolution of Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jamieson, S.S.R.; Sugden, D.E.

2007-01-01

shelf before retreating to its present dimensions at ~13.5 Ma. Subsequent changes in ice extent have been forced mainly by sea-level change. Weathering rates of exposed bedrock have been remarkably slow at high elevations around the margin of East Antarctica under the hyperarid polar climate of the last ~13.5 Ma, offering potential for a long quantitative record of ice-sheet evolution with techniques such as cosmogenic isotope analysis

Learning, climate and the evolution of cultural capacity.

PubMed

Whitehead, Hal

2007-03-21

Patterns of environmental variation influence the utility, and thus evolution, of different learning strategies. I use stochastic, individual-based evolutionary models to assess the relative advantages of 15 different learning strategies (genetic determination, individual learning, vertical social learning, horizontal/oblique social learning, and contingent combinations of these) when competing in variable environments described by 1/f noise. When environmental variation has little effect on fitness, then genetic determinism persists. When environmental variation is large and equal over all time-scales ("white noise") then individual learning is adaptive. Social learning is advantageous in "red noise" environments when variation over long time-scales is large. Climatic variability increases with time-scale, so that short-lived organisms should be able to rely largely on genetic determination. Thermal climates usually are insufficiently red for social learning to be advantageous for species whose fitness is very determined by temperature. In contrast, population trajectories of many species, especially large mammals and aquatic carnivores, are sufficiently red to promote social learning in their predators. The ocean environment is generally redder than that on land. Thus, while individual learning should be adaptive for many longer-lived organisms, social learning will often be found in those dependent on the populations of other species, especially if they are marine. This provides a potential explanation for the evolution of a prevalence of social learning, and culture, in humans and cetaceans.

Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Silva, C. G.; Rigsby, C. A.; Absy, M. L.; Almeida, R. P.; Caputo, M.; Chiessi, C. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Dick, C. W.; Feakins, S. J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K. H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.; Kern, A. K.; Latrubesse, E. M.; Ledru, M. P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W. E.; Ramos, M. I. F.; Ribas, C. C.; Trnadade, R.; West, A. J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, D. A.

2015-12-01

This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

2017-04-01

The oceans provide essential services to society. They regulate climate, they provide food and energy, and many economic activities depend on our seas and oceans. But our oceans and marine ecosystems are under threat. They are impacted by the effects of climate change as well as from other human-induced pressures. More than ever, there is a need to continuously monitor the oceans. This is imperative to understanding and predicting the evolution of our weather and climate. This is also essential for a better and sustainable management of our oceans and seas. The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) has been set up to answer these challenges. CMEMS provides a unique monitoring of the global ocean and European seas based on satellite and in situ observations and models. CMEMS monitors past (over the last 30 years) and current marine conditions and provide short-term forecasts. Mercator Ocean was tasked by the EU to implement the service. The organisation is based on a strong European partnership with more than 60 marine operational and research centres in Europe that are involved in the service and its evolution. An overview of CMEMS, its drivers, organization and initial achievements will be given. The essential role of in-situ and satellite upstream observations will be discussed as well as CMEMS Service Evolution Strategy, associated R&D priorities and future scientific challenges.

Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, P.A.; Fritz, S.C.; Silva, C.G.; Rigsby, C.A.; Absy, M.L.; Almeida, R.P.; Caputo, Maria C.; Chiessi, C.M.; Cruz, F.W.; Dick, C.W.; Feakins, S.J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K.H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Kern, A.; Latrubesse, E.M.; Ledru, M.P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W.E.; Ramos, M.I.F.; Ribas, C.C.; Trinadade, R.; West, A.J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, Debra A.

2015-01-01

This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

Eutrophication in Poyang Lake (Eastern China) over the Last 300 Years in Response to Changes in Climate and Lake Biomass

PubMed Central

Liao, Mengna; Yu, Ge; Guo, Ya

2017-01-01

Poyang Lake is suffering from persistent eutrophication, which is degrading the local ecosystem. A better understanding of the mechanisms that drive eutrophication in lake systems is essential to fight the ongoing deterioration. In this study, hydraulic residence time (HRT) was used to evaluate Poyang Lake’s trophic state. A hydrology and ecosystem forced model was constructed to simulate long-term changes in algae and aquatic plant biomass and total phosphorous (TP). A comparison analysis revealed that between 1812 and 1828 (i.e., a consistent-change stage), climate and hydrology were the main driving forces, while algae and aquatic plant biomass contributed only 20.9% to the trophic changes in Poyang Lake. However, between 1844 and 1860 the biomass predominated contributing 63.6%. This could be attributed to nutrient absorption by algae and aquatic plants. A correlation analysis of the water TP and algae and aquatic plant biomass revealed a strong positive relationship. However, the algae and aquatic plant growth rate tended to decline after the biomass reached half of the maximum. This research reconstructs the long-term trophic evolution of Poyang Lake and provides a better understanding of the relationship between climatic and hydrological changes and lake ecosystems. PMID:28046083

How does a High Resolution Global Model represent Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Amazon Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehbein, A.; Ambrizzi, T.

2017-12-01

The mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are very important meteorological systems, which can impact on the local, regional and global climate. Despite of their importance, the knowledge about their occurrence and behavior is still poor, mainly over the tropical region of South America where the data availability is scarce. Besides, few attentions are given to represent the MCSs in the numerical modeling in that region. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the representation of the MCSs by a global high resolution model over the Amazon basin. In this study, we will make a revision of the state of art involving the MCSs' over the Amazon basin and also how they are represented. For this last point, we will identify and track the MCSs using precipitation data from a high resolution nonhydrostatic global model, called Non-hydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). The spatial and temporal resolution of NICAM are 14 km and 1 hour, respectively. The MCSs identification and tracking will be performed by the algorithm Forecast and Tracking the evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC) for the period of 2000 to 2008. This will allow us evaluate the representation of the MCSs obtained by NICAM and compare them with those found using infrared satellite images. NICAM's precipitation was validated using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), from 1981 to 2008. Once the model is validated, we will analyze the variability of the MCSs using the simulations of the NICAM for a future climate.

Lateral variations in vegetation in the Himalaya since the Miocene and implications for climate evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vögeli, Natalie; Najman, Yani; van der Beek, Peter; Huyghe, Pascale; Wynn, Peter M.; Govin, Gwladys; van der Veen, Iris; Sachse, Dirk

2017-08-01

The Himalaya has a major influence on global and regional climate, in particular on the Asian monsoon system. The foreland basin of the Himalaya contains a record of tectonics and paleoclimate since the Miocene. Previous work on the evolution of vegetation and climate has focused on the central and western Himalaya, where a shift from C3 to C4 vegetation has been observed at ∼7 Ma and linked to increased seasonality, but the climatic evolution of the eastern part of the orogen is less well understood. In order to track vegetation as a marker of monsoon intensity and seasonality, we analyzed δ13 C and δ18 O values of soil carbonate and associated δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon from previously dated sedimentary sections exposing the syn-orogenic detrital Dharamsala and Siwalik Groups in the west, and, for the first time, the Siwalik Group in the east of the Himalayan foreland basin. Sedimentary records span from 20 to 1 Myr in the west (Joginder Nagar, Jawalamukhi, and Haripur Kolar sections) and from 13 to 1 Myr in the east (Kameng section), respectively. The presence of soil carbonate in the west and its absence in the east is a first indication of long-term lateral climatic variation, as soil carbonate requires seasonally arid conditions to develop. δ13 C values in soil carbonate show a shift from around -10‰ to -2‰ at ∼7 Ma in the west, which is confirmed by δ13 C analyses on bulk organic carbon that show a shift from around -23‰ to -19‰ at the same time. Such a shift in isotopic values is likely to be associated with a change from C3 to C4 vegetation. In contrast, δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon remain at ∼ - 23 ‰ in the east. Thus, our data show that the current east-west variation in climate was established at 7 Ma. We propose that the regional change towards a more seasonal climate in the west is linked to a decrease of the influence of the Westerlies, delivering less winter precipitation to the western Himalaya, while the east remained annually humid due to its proximity to the monsoonal moisture source.

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in the IPY 2007-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennicutt, M. C.; Wilson, T. J.; Summerhayes, C.

2005-05-01

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops, and coordinates international scientific research in the Antarctic region. SCAR is assuming a leadership position in the IPY primarily through its five major Scientific Research Programs; ACE, SALE, EBA, AGCS, and ICESTAR; which will be briefly described.Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) promotes the exchange of data and ideas between research groups focusing on the evolution of Antarctica's climate system and ice sheet. The program will: (1) quantitatively assess the climate and glacial history of Antarctica; (2) identify the processes which govern Antarctic change and feed back around the globe; (3) improve our ability to model past changes in Antarctica; and (4)document past change to predict future change in Antarctica. Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) promotes, facilitates, and champions cooperation and collaboration in the exploration and study of subglacial environments in Antarctica. SALE intends to understand the complex interplay of biological, geological, chemical, glaciological, and physical processes within subglacial lake environments through coordinated international research teams. Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) will use a suite of modern techniques and interdisciplinary approaches, to explore the evolutionary history of selected modern Antarctic biota, examine how modern biological diversity in the Antarctic influences the way present-day ecosystems function, and thereby predict how the biota may respond to future environmental change. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (AGCS) will investigate the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the rest of the Earth system, and the mechanisms involved therein. A combination of modern instrumented records of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and the climate signals held within ice cores will be used to understand past and future climate variability and change in the Antarctic as a result of natural and anthropogenic forcings over the last 100,000 years. Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar-Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research (ICESTAR) will study the interactions between and collective behavior of the many component parts of the Earth system, including the interaction between the natural environment and human society. Objectives include specification and prediction of the state of the system and assimilation and integration of data from disparate sources to understand the complex geospace environment.

Sporo-pollen assemblage and paleoclimate events in shelf area of the southern Yellow Sea since 15 ka B. P.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Guanglan; Han, Yousong; Wang, Shaoqing; Wang, Zhenyan

2004-03-01

Based on the authors’ 1986 to 1994 sporo-pollen assemblage analysis in the southern Yellow Sea area, data from 3 main cores were studied in combination with14C, palaeomagnetic and thermoluminescence data. The evolution of the paleoclimate environments in the southern Yellow Sea since 15ka B. P. was revealed that, in deglaciation of the last glacial period, the climate of late glaciation transformed into that of postglaciation, accompanied by a series of violent climate fluctuations. These evolution events happened in a global climate background and related to the geographic changes in eastern China. We distinguished three short-term cooling events and two warming events. Among them, the sporo-pollen assemblage of subzone A1 showed some cold climate features indicating that a cooling event occurred at about 15-14ka. B. P. in early deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Oldest Dryas. In subzone A3, many drought-enduring herbal pollens and some few pollens of cold-resistant Picea, Abies, etc. were found, which indicated that a cooling event, with cold and arid climate, occurred at about 12-11ka. B. P. in late deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Younger Dryas. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone B showed warm and arid climate features in postglaciation. Although the assemblage of subzone B2 indicated a cold and arid climate environment, the development of flora in subzone B2 climate was less cold than that in A3. Subzone B2 indicated a cooling event which occurred at about 9ka B. P. in early olocene. Subzone A2, with some distinct differences from subzone A1 and A3, indicated a warming event which occurred at 14-13ka. B.P. and should correspond to a warming fluctuation. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone C showed features of warn-moist flora and climate, and indicated a warming event which universally occurred along the coast of eastern China at 8-3 ka B. P. in middle Holocene, and its duration was longer than that of any climate events mentioned above. This period was climatic optimum and belonged to an altithermal period in postglaciation.

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (HSPDP). Deciphering climate information from the Chew Bahir sediment cores: Towards a continuous half-million year climate record near the Omo - Turkana key palaeonanthropological Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, Verena E.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Chapot, Melissa S.; Cohen, Andrew S.; Dean, Jonathan R.; Deino, Alan; Günter, Christina; Junginger, Annett; Lamb, Henry F.; Leng, Melanie J.; Roberts, Helen M.; Schaebitz, Frank; Trauth, Martin H.

2017-04-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has successfully completed coring five dominantly lacustrine archives of climate change during the last 3.5 Ma in East Africa. All five sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological research areas encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal episodes, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment records, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, cover the past 550 ka of environmental history, a time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. Deciphering climate information from lake sediments is challenging, due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. We will present the first results in our efforts to develop a reliable climate-proxy tool box for Chew Bahir by deconvolving the relationship between sedimentological and geochemical sediment composition and strongly climate-controlled processes in the basin, such as incongruent weathering, transportation and authigenic mineral alteration. Combining our first results from the long cores with those from a pilot study of short cores taken in 2009/10 along a NW-SE transect of the basin, we have developed a hypothesis linking climate forcing and paleoenvironmental signal-formation processes in the basin. X-ray diffraction analysis of the first sample sets from the long Chew Bahir record reveals similar processes that have been recognized for the uppermost 20 m during the pilot-study of the project: the diagenetic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed-basin lake induced by a drier climate. The precise time resolution, largely continuous record and (eventually) a detailed understanding of site specific proxy formation, will give us a continuous record of environmental history on decadal to orbital timescales. Our data enable us to test current hypotheses of the impact of a variety of climate shifts on human evolution and dispersal.

Future scientific drilling in the Arctic Ocean: Key objectives, areas, and strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, R.; Coakley, B.; Mikkelsen, N.; O'Regan, M.; Ruppel, C.

2012-04-01

In spite of the critical role of the Arctic Ocean in climate evolution, our understanding of the short- and long-term paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history through late Mesozoic-Cenozoic times, as well as its plate-tectonic evolution, remains behind that from the other world's oceans. This lack of knowledge is mainly caused by the major technological/logistic problems in reaching this permanently ice-covered region with normal research vessels and in retrieving long and undisturbed sediment cores. With the Arctic Coring Expedition - ACEX (or IODP Expedition 302), the first Mission Specific Platform (MSP) expedition within IODP, a new era in Arctic research began (Backman, Moran, Mayer, McInroy et al., 2006). ACEX proved that, with an intensive ice-management strategy, successful scientific drilling in the permanently ice-covered central Arctic Ocean is possible. ACEX is certainly a milestone in Arctic Ocean research, but - of course - further drilling activities are needed in this poorly studied ocean. Furthermore, despite the success of ACEX fundamental questions related to the long- and short-term climate history of the Arctic Ocean during Mesozoic-Cenozoic times remain unanswered. This is partly due to poor core recovery during ACEX and, especially, because of a major mid-Cenozoic hiatus in this single record. Since ACEX, a series of workshops were held to develop a scientific drilling strategy for investigating the tectonic and paleoceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean and its role in influencing the global climate system: - "Arctic Ocean History: From Speculation to Reality" (Bremerhaven/Germany, November 2008); - "Overcoming barriers to Arctic Ocean scientific drilling: the site survey challenge" (Copenhagen/Denmark, November 2011); - Circum-Arctic shelf/upper continental slope scientific drilling workshop on "Catching Climate Change in Progress" (San Francisco/USA, December 2011); - "Coordinated Scientific Drilling in the Beaufort Sea: Addressing Past, Present and Future Changes in Arctic Terrestrial and Marine Systems" (Kananaskis, Alberta/Canada, February 2012). During these workshops, key areas and key scientific themes as well as drilling and site-survey strategies were discussed. Major scientific themes for future Arctic drilling will include: - The Arctic Ocean during the transition from greenhouse to icehouse conditions and millennial scale climate changes; - Physical and chemical changes of the evolving Polar Ocean and Arctic gateways; - Impact of Pleistocene/Holocene warming and sea-level rise on upper continental slope and shelf gas hydrates and on shelf permafrost; - Land-ocean interactions; - Tectonic evolution and birth of the Arctic Ocean basin: Arctic ridges, sea floor spreading and global lithosphere processes. When thinking about future Arctic drilling, it should be clearly emphasized that for the precise planning of future Arctic Ocean drilling campaigns, including site selection, evaluation of proposed drill sites for safety and environmental protection, etc., comprehensive site survey data are needed first. This means that the development of a detailed site survey strategy is a major challenge for the coming years. Here, an overview of perspectives and plans for future Arctic Ocean drilling will be presented.

The Portuguese Climate Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Sandra; Deus, Ricardo; Nogueira, Miguel; Viterbo, Pedro; Miranda, Miguel; Antunes, Sílvia; Silva, Alvaro; Miranda, Pedro

2016-04-01

The Portuguese Local Warming Website (http://portaldoclima.pt) has been developed in order to support the society in Portugal in preparing for the adaptation to the ongoing and future effects of climate change. The climate portal provides systematic and easy access to authoritative scientific data ready to be used by a vast and diverse user community from different public and private sectors, key players and decision makers, but also to high school students, contributing to the increase in knowledge and awareness on climate change topics. A comprehensive set of regional climate variables and indicators are computed, explained and graphically presented. Variables and indicators were built in agreement with identified needs after consultation of the relevant social partners from different sectors, including agriculture, water resources, health, environment and energy and also in direct cooperation with the Portuguese National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (ENAAC) group. The visual interface allows the user to dynamically interact, explore, quickly analyze and compare, but also to download and import the data and graphics. The climate variables and indicators are computed from state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) simulations (e.g., CORDEX project), at high space-temporal detail, allowing to push the limits of the projections down to local administrative regions (NUTS3) and monthly or seasonal periods, promoting local adaptation strategies. The portal provides both historical data (observed and modelled for the 1971-2000 period) and future climate projections for different scenarios (modelled for the 2011-2100 period). A large effort was undertaken in order to quantify the impacts of the risk of extreme events, such as heavy rain and flooding, droughts, heat and cold waves, and fires. Furthermore the different climate scenarios and the ensemble of RCM models, with high temporal (daily) and spatial (~11km) detail, is taken advantage in order to quantify a plausible evolution of climate impacts and its uncertainties. Clear information on the data value and limitations is also provided. The portal is expected to become a reference tool for evaluation of impacts and vulnerabilities due to climate change, increased awareness and promotion of local adaptation and sustainable development in Portugal. The Portuguese Local Warming Website is part of the ADAPT programme, and is co-funded by the EEA financial mechanism and the Portuguese Carbon Fund.

Modelling the Climate - Greenland Ice Sheet Interaction in the Coupled Ice-sheet/Climate Model EC-EARTH - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Madsen, M. S.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Svendsen, S. H.; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

2014-12-01

Recent observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass with an increasing speed during the past decades. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. A fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS has recently been developed. The model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consists of the EC-EARTH, an atmosphere, ocean and sea ice model system, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The coupling of PISM includes a modified surface physical parameterization in EC-EARTH adapted to the land ice surface over glaciated regions in Greenland. The PISM ice sheet model is forced with the surface mass balance (SMB) directly computed inside the EC-EARTH atmospheric module and accounting for the precipitation, the surface evaporation, and the melting of snow and ice over land ice. PISM returns the simulated basal melt, ice discharge and ice cover (extent and thickness) as boundary conditions to EC-EARTH. This coupled system is mass and energy conserving without being constrained by any anomaly correction or flux adjustment, and hence is suitable for investigation of ice sheet - climate feedbacks. Three multi-century experiments for warm climate scenarios under (1) the RCP85 climate forcing, (2) an abrupt 4xCO2 and (3) an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase are performed using the coupled model system. The experiments are compared with their counterparts of the standard CMIP5 simulations (without the interactive ice sheet) to evaluate the performance of the coupled system and to quantify the GrIS feedbacks. In particular, the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under the warm climate and its impacts on the climate system are investigated. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet melt to the Arctic and North Atlantic basin and their influence on the ocean stratification and ocean circulation are analysed. The changes in the surface climate and the atmospheric circulation associated with the impact of the Greenland ice sheet changes are quantified. The interaction between the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice is also examined.

Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

2017-07-01

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

Deglaciation and glacial erosion: a joint control on magma productivity by continental unloading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sternai, Pietro; Caricchi, Luca; Castelltort, Sebastien

2016-04-01

Glacial-interglacial cycles affect the processes through which water and rocks are redistributed across the Earth's surface, thereby linking solid-Earth and climate dynamics. Regional and global scale studies suggest that continental lithospheric unloading due to ice melting during the transition to interglacials leads to increased continental magmatic, volcanic and degassing activity. Such a climatic forcing on the melting of the Earth's interior, however, has always been evaluated without considering the additional continental unloading associated with erosion. Current datasets relating to the evolution of erosion rates are typically limited by temporal resolutions that are too low or span too short time intervals to allow for direct comparisons between the contributions from ice melting and erosion to continental unloading at the timescale of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles. Yet, they provide a fundamental observational basis on which to calibrate numerical predictions. Here, we present and discuss numerical results involving synthetic but realistic topographies, ice caps and glacial erosion rates suggesting that erosion may be as important as deglaciation in affecting continental unloading, sub-continental decompression melting and magma productivity. Thus, the timing and magnitude of deglaciation and erosion must be characterized if the forcing of climate change on the continental magmatic/volcanic activity is to be extracted from the remnants of eroded volcanic centers. Our study represents an additional step towards a more general understanding of the links between a changing climate, glacial processes and the melting of the solid Earth.

Fire responses to postglacial climate change and human impact in northern Patagonia (41–43°S)

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Forest/steppe boundaries are among the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth and are highly vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. In this study we examine the postglacial history of the Patagonian forest/steppe ecotone (41–43°S) to better understand its sensitivity to past variations in climate, disturbance, and human activity before European colonization. We present regional trends in vegetation and biomass burning, as detected by generalized additive models fitted to seven pollen and charcoal records, and compare the results with other paleoenvironmental data, as well as archeological and ecological information to (i) estimate postglacial fire trends at regional scales, (ii) assess the evolution of climate–vegetation–fire linkages over the last 18,000 calibrated (cal) years B.P., and (iii) evaluate the role of humans in altering pre-European landscapes and fire regimes. Pollen and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning was relatively low during warm/dry steppe-dominated landscapes in the late glacial/Early Holocene transition and increased as more humid conditions favored forest development after ca. 10,000 cal years B.P. Postglacial fire activity was thus limited by fuel availability associated with sparse vegetation cover rather than by suitable climate conditions. In contrast to extensive burning by European settlers, variations in indigenous population densities were not associated with fluctuations in regional or watershed-scale fire occurrence, suggesting that climate–vegetation–fire linkages in northern Patagonia evolved with minimal or very localized human influences before European settlement. PMID:25489077

Biometeorology for cities.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Balling, Robert C; Andrade, Riley; Scott Krayenhoff, E; Middel, Ariane; Urban, Aleš; Georgescu, Matei; Sailor, David J

2017-09-01

Improvements in global sustainability, health, and equity will largely be determined by the extent to which cities are able to become more efficient, hospitable, and productive places. The development and evolution of urban areas has a significant impact on local and regional weather and climate, which subsequently affect people and other organisms that live in and near cities. Biometeorologists, researchers who study the impact of weather and climate on living creatures, are well positioned to help evaluate and anticipate the consequences of urbanization on the biosphere. Motivated by the 60th anniversary of the International Society of Biometeorology, we reviewed articles published in the Society's International Journal of Biometeorology over the period 1974-2017 to understand if and how biometeorologists have directed attention to urban areas. We found that interest in urban areas has rapidly accelerated; urban-oriented articles accounted for more than 20% of all articles published in the journal in the most recent decade. Urban-focused articles in the journal span five themes: measuring urban climate, theoretical foundations and models, human thermal comfort, human morbidity and mortality, and ecosystem impacts. Within these themes, articles published in the journal represent a sizeable share of the total academic literature. More explicit attention from urban biometeorologists publishing in the journal to low- and middle-income countries, indoor environments, animals, and the impacts of climate change on human health would help ensure that the distinctive perspectives of biometeorology reach the places, people, and processes that are the foci of global sustainability, health, and equity goals.

Sporadic sampling, not climatic forcing, drives observed early hominin diversity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Simon J; Hopley, Philip J; Upchurch, Paul; Soligo, Christophe

2018-05-08

The role of climate change in the origin and diversification of early hominins is hotly debated. Most accounts of early hominin evolution link observed fluctuations in species diversity to directional shifts in climate or periods of intense climatic instability. None of these hypotheses, however, have tested whether observed diversity patterns are distorted by variation in the quality of the hominin fossil record. Here, we present a detailed examination of early hominin diversity dynamics, including both taxic and phylogenetically corrected diversity estimates. Unlike past studies, we compare these estimates to sampling metrics for rock availability (hominin-, primate-, and mammal-bearing formations) and collection effort, to assess the geological and anthropogenic controls on the sampling of the early hominin fossil record. Taxic diversity, primate-bearing formations, and collection effort show strong positive correlations, demonstrating that observed patterns of early hominin taxic diversity can be explained by temporal heterogeneity in fossil sampling rather than genuine evolutionary processes. Peak taxic diversity at 1.9 million years ago (Ma) is a sampling artifact, reflecting merely maximal rock availability and collection effort. In contrast, phylogenetic diversity estimates imply peak diversity at 2.4 Ma and show little relation to sampling metrics. We find that apparent relationships between early hominin diversity and indicators of climatic instability are, in fact, driven largely by variation in suitable rock exposure and collection effort. Our results suggest that significant improvements in the quality of the fossil record are required before the role of climate in hominin evolution can be reliably determined. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

Documenting Climate Models and Simulations: the ES-DOC Ecosystem in Support of CMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, C. L.; Guilyardi, E.

2017-12-01

The results of climate models are of increasing and widespread importance. No longer is climate model output of sole interest to climate scientists and researchers in the climate change impacts and adaptation fields. Now non-specialists such as government officials, policy-makers, and the general public, all have an increasing need to access climate model output and understand its implications. For this host of users, accurate and complete metadata (i.e., information about how and why the data were produced) is required to document the climate modeling results. Here we describe the ES-DOC community-govern project to collect and make available documentation of climate models and their simulations for the internationally coordinated modeling activity CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6). An overview of the underlying standards, key properties and features, the evolution from CMIP5, the underlying tools and workflows as well as what modelling groups should expect and how they should engage with the documentation of their contribution to CMIP6 is also presented.

A collection of Australian Drosophila datasets on climate adaptation and species distributions.

PubMed

Hangartner, Sandra B; Hoffmann, Ary A; Smith, Ailie; Griffin, Philippa C

2015-11-24

The Australian Drosophila Ecology and Evolution Resource (ADEER) collates Australian datasets on drosophilid flies, which are aimed at investigating questions around climate adaptation, species distribution limits and population genetics. Australian drosophilid species are diverse in climatic tolerance, geographic distribution and behaviour. Many species are restricted to the tropics, a few are temperate specialists, and some have broad distributions across climatic regions. Whereas some species show adaptability to climate changes through genetic and plastic changes, other species have limited adaptive capacity. This knowledge has been used to identify traits and genetic polymorphisms involved in climate change adaptation and build predictive models of responses to climate change. ADEER brings together 103 datasets from 39 studies published between 1982-2013 in a single online resource. All datasets can be downloaded freely in full, along with maps and other visualisations. These historical datasets are preserved for future studies, which will be especially useful for assessing climate-related changes over time.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Grand Challenges of WCRP and the Climate Observing System of the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, G. P.

2017-12-01

The successful implementation the Paris agreement on climate change (COP21) calls for a well-designed global monitoring system of essential climate variables, climate processes and Earth system budgets. The Grand Challenges implemented by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) provide an opportunity to investigate issues of high societal relevance, directly related to sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability. These challenges would directly benefit from a well-designed suite of systematic climate observations. Quantification of the evolution of the global energy, water and carbon budgets as well as the development and the production of near-term and regional climate predictions require that a comprehensive, focused, multi-platform observing system (satellites, ground-based and in situ observations) be established in an international context. This system must be accompanied by the development of climate services that should translate and disseminate scientific outcomes as actionable information for users and stakeholders.

A synthesis of the theories and concepts of early human evolution.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark A; Shultz, Susanne; Trauth, Martin H

2015-03-05

Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation.

A synthesis of the theories and concepts of early human evolution

PubMed Central

Maslin, Mark A.; Shultz, Susanne; Trauth, Martin H.

2015-01-01

Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation. PMID:25602068

Palaeohydrological evolution of the late Cenozoic saline lake in the Qaidam Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau: Tectonic vs. climatic control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Pei; Liu, Chiyang; Huang, Lei; Yu, Mengli; Wang, Peng; Zhang, Guoqing

2018-06-01

As the largest Cenozoic terrestrial intermountain basin on the Tibetan Plateau, the Qaidam Basin is an ideal setting to understand the coupled controls of tectonics and climate on hydrological evolution. In this study, we used 47,846 data of carbonate and chloride contents from 146 boreholes to reconstruct the Neogene-Quaternary basin-wide hydrological evolution of the Qaidam Basin. Our results show that during the early Miocene (22-15 Ma), the palaeolake in the Qaidam Basin was mainly situated in the southwestern part of the basin, and its water was mostly brackish. From then on, this palaeolake progressively migrated southeastward, and its salinity increased from late Miocene saline water to Quaternary brines. This generally increasing trend of the water palaeosalinity during the late Cenozoic corresponded with regional and global climate changes at that time, suggesting the dominance of climatic control. However, the paces of the salinity increase from sediments in front of the three basin-bounding ranges were not the same, indicating that extra tectonic controls occurred. Sediments in front of the Eastern Kunlun Shan to the southwest and the Altyn Shan to the northwest showed an abrupt, dramatic increase in salinity at 15 Ma and 8 Ma, respectively; sediments in front of the Qilian Shan to the northeast showed steady increase without prominent, abrupt changes, indicating the occurrence of asynchronous tectonic controls from the basin-bounding ranges. The late Miocene depocentre migration was synchronous with the hydrological changes in front of the Altyn Shan, while the more significant migration during the Quaternary was consistent with the pulsing, intense extrabasinal and intrabasinal tectonic movements along the Tibetan Plateau.

Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change.

PubMed

Ensslin, Andreas; Fischer, Markus

2015-08-01

• Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments.• We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain's slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits.• Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values.• We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

PERPHECLIM ACCAF Project - Perennial fruit crops and forest phenology evolution facing climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Audergon, Jean Marc; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Anger, Christel; Bonhomme, Marc; Chuine, Isabelle; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Duchêne, Eric; Legave, Jean Michel; Raynal, Hélène; Pichot, Christian; Van Leeuwen, Cornelis; Perpheclim Team

2015-04-01

Phenology is a bio-indicator of climate evolutions. Measurements of phenological stages on perennial species provide actually significant illustrations and assessments of the impact of climate change. Phenology is also one of the main key characteristics of the capacity of adaptation of perennial species, generating questions about their consequences on plant growth and development or on fruit quality. Predicting phenology evolution and adaptative capacities of perennial species need to override three main methodological limitations: 1) existing observations and associated databases are scattered and sometimes incomplete, rendering difficult implementation of multi-site study of genotype-environment interaction analyses; 2) there are not common protocols to observe phenological stages; 3) access to generic phenological models platforms is still very limited. In this context, the PERPHECLIM project, which is funded by the Adapting Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change Meta-Program (ACCAF) from INRA (French National Institute of Agronomic Research), has the objective to develop the necessary infrastructure at INRA level (observatories, information system, modeling tools) to enable partners to study the phenology of various perennial species (grapevine, fruit trees and forest trees). Currently the PERPHECLIM project involves 27 research units in France. The main activities currently developed are: define protocols and observation forms to observe phenology for various species of interest for the project; organizing observation training; develop generic modeling solutions to simulate phenology (Phenological Modelling Platform and modelling platform solutions); support in building research projects at national and international level; develop environment/genotype observation networks for fruit trees species; develop an information system managing data and documentation concerning phenology. Finally, PERPHECLIM project aims to build strong collaborations with public (Observatoire des Saisons) and private sector partners (technical institutes) in order to allow a more direct transfer of knowledge.

Structure and Evolution of Mediterranean Forest Research: A Science Mapping Approach.

PubMed

Nardi, Pierfrancesco; Di Matteo, Giovanni; Palahi, Marc; Scarascia Mugnozza, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

This study aims at conducting the first science mapping analysis of the Mediterranean forest research in order to elucidate its research structure and evolution. We applied a science mapping approach based on co-term and citation analyses to a set of scientific publications retrieved from the Elsevier's Scopus database over the period 1980-2014. The Scopus search retrieved 2,698 research papers and reviews published by 159 peer-reviewed journals. The total number of publications was around 1% (N = 17) during the period 1980-1989 and they reached 3% (N = 69) in the time slice 1990-1994. Since 1995, the number of publications increased exponentially, thus reaching 55% (N = 1,476) during the period 2010-2014. Within the thirty-four years considered, the retrieved publications were published by 88 countries. Among them, Spain was the most productive country, publishing 44% (N = 1,178) of total publications followed by Italy (18%, N = 482) and France (12%, N = 336). These countries also host the ten most productive scientific institutions in terms of number of publications in Mediterranean forest subjects. Forest Ecology and Management and Annals of Forest Science were the most active journals in publishing research in Mediterranean forest. During the period 1980-1994, the research topics were poorly characterized, but they become better defined during the time slice 1995-1999. Since 2000s, the clusters become well defined by research topics. Current status of Mediterranean forest research (20092014) was represented by four clusters, in which different research topics such as biodiversity and conservation, land-use and degradation, climate change effects on ecophysiological responses and soil were identified. Basic research in Mediterranean forest ecosystems is mainly conducted by ecophysiological research. Applied research was mainly represented by land-use and degradation, biodiversity and conservation and fire research topics. The citation analyses revealed highly cited terms in the Mediterranean forest research as they were represented by fire, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, climate change and global warming. Finally, our analysis also revealed the multidisciplinary role of climate change research. This study provides a first holistic view of the Mediterranean forest research that could be useful for researchers and policy makers as they may evaluate and analyze its historical evolution, as well as its structure and scientific production. We concluded that Mediterranean forest research represents an active scientific field.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

2014-05-01

Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate.

PubMed

Fung, Inez Y; Doney, Scott C; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-08-09

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Fung, Inez Y.; Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-01-01

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain. PMID:16061800

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

2011-01-01

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

A change in climate causes rapid evolution of multiple life-history traits and their interactions in an annual plant.

PubMed

Franks, S J; Weis, A E

2008-09-01

Climate change is likely to spur rapid evolution, potentially altering integrated suites of life-history traits. We examined evolutionary change in multiple life-history traits of the annual plant Brassica rapa collected before and after a recent 5-year drought in southern California. We used a direct approach to examining evolutionary change by comparing ancestors and descendants. Collections were made from two populations varying in average soil moisture levels, and lines propagated from the collected seeds were grown in a greenhouse and experimentally subjected to conditions simulating either drought (short growing season) or high precipitation (long growing season) years. Comparing ancestors and descendants, we found that the drought caused many changes in life-history traits, including a shift to earlier flowering, longer duration of flowering, reduced peak flowering and greater skew of the flowering schedule. Descendants had thinner stems and fewer leaf nodes at the time of flowering than ancestors, indicating that the drought selected for plants that flowered at a smaller size and earlier ontogenetic stage rather than selecting for plants to develop more rapidly. Thus, there was not evidence for absolute developmental constraints to flowering time evolution. Common principal component analyses showed substantial differences in the matrix of trait covariances both between short and long growing season treatments and between populations. Although the covariances matrices were generally similar between ancestors and descendants, there was evidence for complex evolutionary changes in the relationships among the traits, and these changes depended on the population and treatment. These results show that a full appreciation of the impacts of global change on phenotypic evolution will entail an understanding of how changes in climatic conditions affect trait values and the structure of relationships among traits.

The evolution of test size in the Planktic Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraass, A.; Huber, B. T.; Kelly, D. C.

2017-12-01

Planktic foraminifera are vital tools for understanding paleoceanography, paleoclimate, and evolution. A dataset of measurements from all planktic foraminiferal species is used here to investigate how their size changes through the late Jurassic to Recent. The mean test size of planktic foraminifera increases in the Cretaceous and the Cenozoic, with substantial drops at the Aptian/Albian boundary, in the Coniacian and Santonian, with the end-Cretaceous extinction, and across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. The Oligocene contains only a small drop in mean size, which is surprising given the substantial extinction of planktic foraminifera at that boundary. There is a qualitative connection between mean and median size and paleoceanographic events, but several key issues remain before rigorous quantitative interrogation of the dataset can be undertaken. In general, species that originate early in a family's range are smaller than those evolving later, though this is a weak relationship. Individual families do not always conform to that finding, however, and have both increasing and decreasing family age-size relationships. The 'three faunas' concept for foraminiferal evolution fails with respect to mean and median size; each diversification has a unique rate of increase and character. Lastly, through comparison with the Schmidt et al. (2004) population-level test size dataset, the size response to climate in the low-latitudes is at the species-level. In the high-latitude regions, however, the response to climate is at the population level. Thus, methods for uncovering climate responses in planktic foraminifera must be specific to the region. Taxonomic or macroevolutionary responses dominate the tropics and global signals, while the polar regions appear to have a unique, and more microevolutionary response.Schmidt, D., Thierstein, H., Bollmann, J., & Schiebel, R. (2004). Abiotic Forcing of Plankton Evolution in the Cenozoic. Science, 303(5655), 207-210.

Epigenetic Inheritance and Its Role in Evolutionary Biology: Re-Evaluation and New Perspectives

PubMed Central

Burggren, Warren

2016-01-01

Epigenetics increasingly occupies a pivotal position in our understanding of inheritance, natural selection and, perhaps, even evolution. A survey of the PubMed database, however, reveals that the great majority (>93%) of epigenetic papers have an intra-, rather than an inter-generational focus, primarily on mechanisms and disease. Approximately ~1% of epigenetic papers even mention the nexus of epigenetics, natural selection and evolution. Yet, when environments are dynamic (e.g., climate change effects), there may be an “epigenetic advantage” to phenotypic switching by epigenetic inheritance, rather than by gene mutation. An epigenetically-inherited trait can arise simultaneously in many individuals, as opposed to a single individual with a gene mutation. Moreover, a transient epigenetically-modified phenotype can be quickly “sunsetted”, with individuals reverting to the original phenotype. Thus, epigenetic phenotype switching is dynamic and temporary and can help bridge periods of environmental stress. Epigenetic inheritance likely contributes to evolution both directly and indirectly. While there is as yet incomplete evidence of direct permanent incorporation of a complex epigenetic phenotype into the genome, doubtlessly, the presence of epigenetic markers and the phenotypes they create (which may sort quite separately from the genotype within a population) will influence natural selection and, so, drive the collective genotype of a population. PMID:27231949

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Convergent local adaptation to climate in distantly related conifers.

PubMed

Yeaman, Sam; Hodgins, Kathryn A; Lotterhos, Katie E; Suren, Haktan; Nadeau, Simon; Degner, Jon C; Nurkowski, Kristin A; Smets, Pia; Wang, Tongli; Gray, Laura K; Liepe, Katharina J; Hamann, Andreas; Holliday, Jason A; Whitlock, Michael C; Rieseberg, Loren H; Aitken, Sally N

2016-09-23

When confronted with an adaptive challenge, such as extreme temperature, closely related species frequently evolve similar phenotypes using the same genes. Although such repeated evolution is thought to be less likely in highly polygenic traits and distantly related species, this has not been tested at the genome scale. We performed a population genomic study of convergent local adaptation among two distantly related species, lodgepole pine and interior spruce. We identified a suite of 47 genes, enriched for duplicated genes, with variants associated with spatial variation in temperature or cold hardiness in both species, providing evidence of convergent local adaptation despite 140 million years of separate evolution. These results show that adaptation to climate can be genetically constrained, with certain key genes playing nonredundant roles. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Operationalization of Prediction, Hindcast, and Evaluation Systems using the Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework (Freva) incl. a Showcase in Decadal Climate Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, Christopher; Illing, Sebastian; Schartner, Thomas; Ulbrich, Uwe; Cubasch, Ulrich

2017-04-01

Operationalization processes are important for Weather and Climate Services. Complex data and work flows need to be combined fast to fulfill the needs of service centers. Standards in data and software formats help in automatic solutions. In this study we show a software solution in between hindcasts, forecasts, and validation to be operationalized. Freva (see below) structures data and evaluation procedures and can easily be monitored. Especially in the development process of operationalized services, Freva supports scientists and project partners. The showcase of the decadal climate prediction project MiKlip (fona-miklip.de) shows such a complex development process. Different predictions, scientists input, tasks, and time evolving adjustments need to be combined to host precise climate informations in a web environment without losing track of its evolution. The Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework (Freva - freva.met.fu-berlin.de) is a software infrastructure for standardized data and tool solutions in Earth system science. Freva runs on high performance computers to handle customizable evaluation systems of research projects, institutes or universities. It combines different software technologies into one common hybrid infrastructure, including all features present in the shell and web environment. The database interface satisfies the international standards provided by the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Freva indexes different data projects into one common search environment by storing the meta data information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets in a database. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy-to-handle search tool supports users, developers and their plugins to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. Facilitation of the provision and usage of tools and climate data automatically increases the number of scientists working with the data sets and identifying discrepancies. The integrated webshell (shellinabox) adds a degree of freedom in the choice of the working environment and can be used as a gateto the research projects HPC. Plugins are able to integrate their e.g. post-processed results into the database ofthe user. This allows e.g. post-processing plugins to feed statistical analysis plugins, which fosters an active exchange between plugin developers of a research project. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a database. Configurations and results of the tools can be shared among scientists via shell or web system. Therefore, plugged-in tools benefit from transparency and reproducibility. Furthermore, if configurations match while starting an evaluation plugin, the system suggests to use results already produced by other users - saving CPU/h, I/O, disk space and time. The efficient interaction between different technologies improves the Earth system modeling science framed by Freva.

West African Monsoon Decadal Variability and Surface-Related Forcings: Second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William K-M; Boone, Aaron; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Wang, Guiling; Kucharski, Fred; Schiro, Kathleen; Hosaka, Masahiro;

The importance of accurate glacier albedo for estimates of surface mass balance on Vatnajökull: Evaluating the surface energy budget in a Regional Climate Model with automatic weather station observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffensen Schmidt, Louise; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Guðmundsson, Sverrir; Langen, Peter L.; Pálsson, Finnur; Mottram, Ruth; Gascoin, Simon; Björnsson, Helgi

2017-04-01

The evolution of the surface mass balance of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1981 to the present day is estimated by using the Regional Climate Model HIRHAM5 to simulate the surface climate. A new albedo parametrization is used for the simulation, which describes the albedo with an exponential decay with time. In addition, it utilizes a new background map of the ice albedo created from MODIS data. The simulation is validated against observed daily values of weather parameters from five Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) from 2001-2014, as well as mass balance measurements from 1995-2014. The modelled albedo is overestimated at the AWS sites in the ablation zone, which we attribute to an overestimation of the thickness of the snow layer and the model not accounting for dust and ash deposition during dust storms and volcanic eruptions. A comparison with the specific summer, winter, and annual mass balance for all Vatnajökull from 1995-2014 shows a good overall fit during the summer, with the model underestimating the balance by only 0.04 m w. eq. on average. The winter balance, on the other hand, is overestimated by 0.5 m w. eq. on average, mostly due to an overestimation of the precipitation at the highest areas of the ice cap. A simple correction of the accumulation at these points reduced the error to 0.15 m w. eq. The model captures the evolution of the specific mass balance well, for example it captures an observed shift in the balance in the mid-1990s, which gives us confidence in the results for the entire model run. Our results show the importance of bare ice albedo for modelled mass balance and that processes not currently accounted for in RCMs, such as dust storms, are an important source of uncertainty in estimates of the snow melt rate.

Towards integrated assessment of the northern Adriatic Sea sediment budget using remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramelli, A.; Filipponi, F.; Valentini, E.; Zucca, F.; Gutierrez, O. Q.; Liberti, L.; Cordella, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the factors influencing sediment fluxes is a key issue to interpret the evolution of coastal sedimentation under natural and human impact and relevant for the natural resources management. Despite river plumes represent one of the major gain in sedimentary budget of littoral cells, knowledge of factors influencing complex behavior of coastal plumes, like river discharge characteristics, wind stress and hydro-climatic variables, has not been yet fully investigated. Use of Earth Observation data allows the identification of spatial and temporal variations of suspended sediments related to river runoff, seafloor erosion, sediment transport and deposition processes. Objective of the study is to investigate sediment fluxes in northern Adriatic Sea by linking suspended sediment patterns of coastal plumes to hydrologic and climatic forcing regulating the sedimentary cell budget and geomorphological evolution in coastal systems and continental shelf waters. Analysis of Total Suspended Matter (TSM) product, derived from 2002-2012 MERIS time series, was done to map changes in spatial and temporal dimension of suspended sediments, focusing on turbid plume waters and intense wind stress conditions. From the generated multi temporal TSM maps, dispersal patterns of major freshwater runoff plumes in northern Adriatic Sea were evaluated through spatial variability of coastal plumes shape and extent. Additionally, sediment supply from river distributary mouths was estimated from TSM and correlated with river discharge rates, wind field and wave field through time. Spatial based methodology has been developed to identify events of wave-generated resuspension of sediments, which cause variation in water column turbidity, occurring during intense wind stress and extreme metocean conditions, especially in the winter period. The identified resuspension events were qualitatively described and compared with to hydro-climatic variables. The identification of spatial and temporal pattern variability highlighted the presence of seasonal sediment dynamics linked to the seasonal cycle in river discharge and wind stress. Results suggest that sediment fluxes generate geomorphological variations in northern Adriatic Sea, which are mainly controlled by river discharge rates and modulated by the winds.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Dengue Incidence in Brazil, 2001-2012

PubMed Central

Rodrigues, Nádia Cristina Pinheiro; Daumas, Regina Paiva; Gerardi, Alyssa; Fernandes, Gabriel Henrique Barroso Viana; Ramos, José Augusto Sapienza; Ferreira, Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves; Leite, Iuri da Costa

2016-01-01

Background In Brazil, the incidence of dengue greatly increased in the last two decades and there are several factors impeding the control of the disease. The present study focused on describing the space-time evolution of dengue in Brazil from 2001 to 2012 and analyzing the relationship of the reported cases with socio-demographic and environmental factors. Methods The analytic units used in the preparation of thematic maps were municipalities. Statistical tests and multilevel regression models were used to evaluate the association between dengue incidence and the following factors: climate, diagnostic period, demographic density, percentage of people living in rural areas, Gross Domestic Product, Gini index, percentage of garbage collection and the rate of households with a sewage network. Results The largest accumulation of dengue cases in Brazil was concentrated on the Atlantic coast and in the interior part of São Paulo State. The risk of dengue in subtropical and tropical climates was 1.20–11 times lower than that observed in semi-arid climates. In 2009–2010 and 2011–2012, the risks were ten and six times higher than in 2003–2004, respectively. Conclusion Dengue is a common infection in the Brazilian population, with the largest accumulation of dengue cases concentrated on the Atlantic coast and in the interior area of São Paulo State. The high dengue rates observed in the Brazilian coastal region suggest that the cases imported from neighboring countries contribute to the spread of the disease in the country. Our results suggest that several socio-demographic and environmental factors resulted in the increase of dengue in the country over time. This is likely applicable to the occurrence of other arboviruses like Zika and chikungunya. To reverse the situation, Brazil must implement effective public policies that offer basic services such as garbage collection and sanitation networks as well as reduce vector populations. PMID:27832129

A life-cycle approach to technology, infrastructure, and climate policy decision making: Transitioning to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low-carbon electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, Constantine

In order to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change, large global reductions in the current levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are required in this century to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at less than double pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report states that GHG emissions should be reduced to 50-80% of 2000 levels by 2050 to increase the likelihood of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In order to achieve the large GHG reductions by 2050 recommended by the IPCC, a fundamental shift and evolution will be required in the energy system. Because the electric power and transportation sectors represent the largest GHG emissions sources in the United States, a unique opportunity for coupling these systems via electrified transportation could achieve synergistic environmental (GHG emissions reductions) and energy security (petroleum displacement) benefits. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, this thesis finds that life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs depend on the electricity source that is used to charge the battery, so meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. Power plants and their associated GHGs are long-lived, and this work argues that decisions made regarding new electricity supplies within the next ten years will affect the potential of PHEVs to play a role in a low-carbon future in the coming decades. This thesis investigates the life cycle engineering, economic, and policy decisions involved in transitioning to PHEVs and low-carbon electricity. The government has a vast array of policy options to promote low-carbon technologies, some of which have proven to be more successful than others. This thesis uses life cycle assessment to evaluate options and opportunities for large GHG reductions from plug-in hybrids. After the options and uncertainties are framed, engineering economic analysis is used to evaluate the policy actions required for adoption of PHEVs at scale and the implications for low-carbon electricity investments. A logistic PHEV adoption model is constructed to parameterize implications for low-carbon electricity infrastructure investments and climate policy. This thesis concludes with an examination of what lessons can be learned for climate, innovation, and low-carbon energy policies from the evolution of wind power from an emerging alternative energy technology to a utility-scale power source. Policies to promote PHEVs and other emerging energy technologies can take lessons learned from the successes and challenges of wind power's development to optimize low-carbon energy policy and R&D programs going forward. The need for integrated climate policy, energy policy, sustainability, and urban mobility solutions will accelerate in the next two decades as concerns regarding GHG emissions and petroleum resources continue to be environmental and economic priorities. To assist in informing the discussions on climate policy and low-carbon energy R&D, this research and its methods will provide stakeholders in government and industry with plug-in hybrid and energy policy choices based on life cycle assessment, engineering economics, and systems analysis.

Multiscale Models of Melting Arctic Sea Ice

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

September 29, 2013 LONG-TERM GOALS Sea ice reflectance or albedo , a key parameter in climate modeling, is primarily determined by melt pond...and ice floe configurations. Ice - albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However...understanding the evolution of melt ponds and sea ice albedo remains a significant challenge to improving climate models. Our research is focused on

A macrophysical life cycle description for precipitating systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evaristo, Raquel; Xie, Xinxin; Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Simon, Juergen; Simmer, Clemens

2014-05-01

The lack of understanding of cloud and precipitation processes is still the overarching problem of climate simulation, and prediction. The work presented is part of the HD(CP)2 project (High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Predictions) which aims at building a very high resolution model in order to evaluate and exploit regional hindcasts for the purpose of parameterization development. To this end, an observational object-based climatology for precipitation systems will be built, and shall later be compared with a twin model-based climatological data base for pseudo precipitation events within an event-based model validation approach. This is done by identifying internal structures, described by means of macrophysical descriptors used to characterize the temporal development of tracked rain events. 2 pre-requisites are necessary for this: 1) a tracking algorithm, and 2) 3D radar/satellite composite. Both prerequisites are ready to be used, and have already been applied to a few case studies. Some examples of these macrophysical descriptors are differential reflectivity columns, bright band fraction and trend, cloud top heights, the spatial extent of updrafts or downdrafts or the ice content. We will show one case study from August 5th 2012, when convective precipitation was observed simultaneously by the BOXPOL and JUXPOL X-band polarimetric radars. We will follow the main paths identified by the tracking algorithm during this event and identify in the 3D composite the descriptors that characterize precipitation development, their temporal evolution, and the different macrophysical processes that are ultimately related to the precipitation observed. In a later stage these observations will be compared to the results of hydrometeor classification algorithm, in order to link the macrophysical and microphysical aspects of the storm evolution. The detailed microphysical processes are the subject of a closely related work also presented in this session: Microphysical processes observed by X band polarimetric radars during the evolution of storm systems, by Xinxin Xie et al.

Population genomics provide insights into the evolution and adaptation of the eastern honey bee (Apis cerana).

PubMed

Chen, Chao; Wang, Huihua; Liu, Zhiguang; Chen, Xiao; Tang, Jiao; Meng, Fanming; Shi, Wei

2018-06-20

The mechanisms by which organisms adapt to variable environments are a fundamental question in evolutionary biology and are important to protect important species in response to a changing climate. An interesting candidate to study this question is the honey bee Apis cerana, a keystone pollinator with a wide distribution throughout a large variety of climates, that exhibits rapid dispersal. Here, we re-sequenced the genome of 180 A. cerana individuals from eighteen populations throughout China. Using a population genomics approach, we observed considerable genetic variation in A. cerana. Patterns of genetic differentiation indicate high divergence at the subspecies level, and physical barriers rather than distance are the driving force for population divergence. Estimations of divergence time suggested that the main branches diverged between 300 and 500 ka. Analyses of the population history revealed a substantial influence of the Earth's climate on the effective population size of A. cerana, as increased population sizes were observed during warmer periods. Further analyses identified candidate genes under natural selection that are potentially related to honey bee cognition, temperature adaptation, and olfactory. Based on our results, A. cerana may have great potential in response to climate change. Our study provides fundamental knowledge of the evolution and adaptation of A. cerana.

Spatio-temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Exposito-Alonso, Moises; Brennan, Adrian C; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier

2018-06-27

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness-related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life-history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north-western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north-western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north-western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Mean-state acceleration of cloud-resolving models and large eddy simulations

DOE PAGES

Jones, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2015-10-29

In this study, large eddy simulations and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are routinely used to simulate boundary layer and deep convective cloud processes, aid in the development of moist physical parameterization for global models, study cloud-climate feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interaction, and as the heart of superparameterized climate models. These models are computationally demanding, placing practical constraints on their use in these applications, especially for long, climate-relevant simulations. In many situations, the horizontal-mean atmospheric structure evolves slowly compared to the turnover time of the most energetic turbulent eddies. We develop a simple scheme to reduce this time scale separation to accelerate themore » evolution of the mean state. Using this approach we are able to accelerate the model evolution by a factor of 2–16 or more in idealized stratocumulus, shallow and deep cumulus convection without substantial loss of accuracy in simulating mean cloud statistics and their sensitivity to climate change perturbations. As a culminating test, we apply this technique to accelerate the embedded CRMs in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model by a factor of 2, thereby showing that the method is robust and stable to realistic perturbations across spatial and temporal scales typical in a GCM.« less

Historical climate change and speciation: neotropical seasonally dry forest plants show patterns of both tertiary and quaternary diversification.

PubMed Central

Pennington, R Toby; Lavin, Matt; Prado, Darién E; Pendry, Colin A; Pell, Susan K; Butterworth, Charles A

2004-01-01

Historical climate changes have had a major effect on the distribution and evolution of plant species in the neotropics. What is more controversial is whether relatively recent Pleistocene climatic changes have driven speciation, or whether neotropical species diversity is more ancient. This question is addressed using evolutionary rate analysis of sequence data of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers in diverse taxa occupying neotropical seasonally dry forests, including Ruprechtia (Polygonaceae), robinioid legumes (Fabaceae), Chaetocalyx and Nissolia (Fabaceae), and Loxopterygium (Anacardiaceae). Species diversifications in these taxa occurred both during and before the Pleistocene in Central America, but were primarily pre-Pleistocene in South America. This indicates plausibility both for models that predict tropical species diversity to be recent and that invoke a role for Pleistocene climatic change, and those that consider it ancient and implicate geological factors such as the Andean orogeny and the closure of the Panama Isthmus. Cladistic vicariance analysis was attempted to identify common factors underlying evolution in these groups. In spite of the similar Mid-Miocene to Pliocene ages of the study taxa, and their high degree of endemism in the different fragments of South American dry forests, the analysis yielded equivocal, non-robust patterns of area relationships. PMID:15212100

Diversification rates are more strongly related to microhabitat than climate in squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes).

PubMed

Bars-Closel, Melissa; Kohlsdorf, Tiana; Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

2017-09-01

Patterns of species richness among clades can be directly explained by the ages of clades or their rates of diversification. The factors that most strongly influence diversification rates remain highly uncertain, since most studies typically consider only a single predictor variable. Here, we explore the relative impacts of macroclimate (i.e., occurring in tropical vs. temperate regions) and microhabitat use (i.e., terrestrial, fossorial, arboreal, aquatic) on diversification rates of squamate reptile clades (lizards and snakes). We obtained data on microhabitat, macroclimatic distribution, and phylogeny for >4000 species. We estimated diversification rates of squamate clades (mostly families) from a time-calibrated tree, and used phylogenetic methods to test relationships between diversification rates and microhabitat and macroclimate. Across 72 squamate clades, the best-fitting model included microhabitat but not climatic distribution. Microhabitat explained ∼37% of the variation in diversification rates among clades, with a generally positive impact of arboreal microhabitat use on diversification, and negative impacts of fossorial and aquatic microhabitat use. Overall, our results show that the impacts of microhabitat on diversification rates can be more important than those of climate, despite much greater emphasis on climate in previous studies. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

PubMed

Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

Autogenic Versus Allogenic Controls on the Evolution of a Coupled Fluvial Megafan-Mountainous Catchment System: Insight from Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouchene, M.; van der Beek, P.; Carretier, S.; Mouthereau, F.

2017-12-01

Alluvial megafans are sensitive recorders of landscape evolution, controlled by both autogenic processes and allogenic forcing, and they are influenced by the coupled dynamics of the fan with its mountainous catchment. The Mio-Pliocene Lannemezan megafan in the northern Pyrenean foreland (SW France) was abandoned by its mountainous feeder stream during the Quaternary and subsequently incised. The flight of alluvial terraces abandoned along the stream network may suggest a climatic control on the incision. We use a landscape evolution numerical model (CIDRE) to explore the relative roles of autogenic processes and external forcing in the building, abandonment and incision of a foreland megafan, and we compare the results with the inferred evolution of the Lannemezan megafan. Autogenic processes are sufficient to explain the building of a megafan and the long-term entrenchment of its feeding river on time and space scales that match the Lannemezan setting. Climate, through temporal variations in precipitation rate, may have played a role in the episodic pattern of incision on a shorter timescale. In contrast, base-level changes, tectonic activity in the mountain range or tilting of the foreland through flexural isostatic rebound do not appear to have played a role in the abandonment of the megafan.

The evolution of environmental tolerance and range size: a comparison of geographically restricted and widespread Mimulus.

PubMed

Sheth, Seema N; Angert, Amy L

2014-10-01

The geographic ranges of closely related species can vary dramatically, yet we do not fully grasp the mechanisms underlying such variation. The niche breadth hypothesis posits that species that have evolved broad environmental tolerances can achieve larger geographic ranges than species with narrow environmental tolerances. In turn, plasticity and genetic variation in ecologically important traits and adaptation to environmentally variable areas can facilitate the evolution of broad environmental tolerance. We used five pairs of western North American monkeyflowers to experimentally test these ideas by quantifying performance across eight temperature regimes. In four species pairs, species with broader thermal tolerances had larger geographic ranges, supporting the niche breadth hypothesis. As predicted, species with broader thermal tolerances also had more within-population genetic variation in thermal reaction norms and experienced greater thermal variation across their geographic ranges than species with narrow thermal tolerances. Species with narrow thermal tolerance may be particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions due to lack of plasticity and insufficient genetic variation to respond to novel selection pressures. Conversely, species experiencing high variation in temperature across their ranges may be buffered against extinction due to climatic changes because they have evolved tolerance to a broad range of temperatures. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Basking behavior predicts the evolution of heat tolerance in Australian rainforest lizards.

PubMed

Muñoz, Martha M; Langham, Gary M; Brandley, Matthew C; Rosauer, Dan F; Williams, Stephen E; Moritz, Craig

2016-11-01

There is pressing urgency to understand how tropical ectotherms can behaviorally and physiologically respond to climate warming. We examine how basking behavior and thermal environment interact to influence evolutionary variation in thermal physiology of multiple species of lygosomine rainforest skinks from the Wet Tropics of northeastern Queensland, Australia (AWT). These tropical lizards are behaviorally specialized to exploit canopy or sun, and are distributed across marked thermal clines in the AWT. Using phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that physiological parameters are either associated with changes in local thermal habitat or to basking behavior, but not both. Cold tolerance, the optimal sprint speed, and performance breadth are primarily influenced by local thermal environment. Specifically, montane lizards are more cool tolerant, have broader performance breadths, and higher optimum sprinting temperatures than their lowland counterparts. Heat tolerance, in contrast, is strongly affected by basking behavior: there are two evolutionary optima, with basking species having considerably higher heat tolerance than shade skinks, with no effect of elevation. These distinct responses among traits indicate the multiple selective pressures and constraints that shape the evolution of thermal performance. We discuss how behavior and physiology interact to shape organisms' vulnerability and potential resilience to climate change. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Environmental niche conservatism explains the accumulation of species richness in Mediterranean-hotspot plant genera.

PubMed

Skeels, Alexander; Cardillo, Marcel

2017-03-01

The causes of exceptionally high plant diversity in Mediterranean-climate biodiversity hotspots are not fully understood. We asked whether a mechanism similar to the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis could explain the diversity of four large genera (Protea, Moraea, Banksia, and Hakea) with distributions within and adjacent to the Greater Cape Floristic Region (South Africa) or the Southwest Floristic Region (Australia). Using phylogenetic and spatial data we estimated the environmental niche of each species, and reconstructed the mode and dynamics of niche evolution, and the geographic history, of each genus. For three genera, there were strong positive relationships between the diversity of clades within a region and their inferred length of occupation of that region. Within genera, there was evidence for strong evolutionary constraint on niche axes associated with climatic seasonality and aridity, with different niche optima for hotspot and nonhotspot clades. Evolutionary transitions away from hotspots were associated with increases in niche breadth and elevated rates of niche evolution. Our results point to a process of "hotspot niche conservatism" whereby the accumulation of plant diversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems results from longer time for speciation, with dispersal away from hotspots limited by narrow and phylogenetically conserved environmental niches. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The importance of accurate glacier albedo for estimates of surface mass balance on Vatnajökull: evaluating the surface energy budget in a regional climate model with automatic weather station observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffensen Schmidt, Louise; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Guðmundsson, Sverrir; Langen, Peter L.; Pálsson, Finnur; Mottram, Ruth; Gascoin, Simon; Björnsson, Helgi

2017-07-01

A simulation of the surface climate of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, carried out with the regional climate model HIRHAM5 for the period 1980-2014, is used to estimate the evolution of the glacier surface mass balance (SMB). This simulation uses a new snow albedo parameterization that allows albedo to exponentially decay with time and is surface temperature dependent. The albedo scheme utilizes a new background map of the ice albedo created from observed MODIS data. The simulation is evaluated against observed daily values of weather parameters from five automatic weather stations (AWSs) from the period 2001-2014, as well as in situ SMB measurements from the period 1995-2014. The model agrees well with observations at the AWS sites, albeit with a general underestimation of the net radiation. This is due to an underestimation of the incoming radiation and a general overestimation of the albedo. The average modelled albedo is overestimated in the ablation zone, which we attribute to an overestimation of the thickness of the snow layer and not taking the surface darkening from dirt and volcanic ash deposition during dust storms and volcanic eruptions into account. A comparison with the specific summer, winter, and net mass balance for the whole of Vatnajökull (1995-2014) shows a good overall fit during the summer, with a small mass balance underestimation of 0.04 m w.e. on average, whereas the winter mass balance is overestimated by on average 0.5 m w.e. due to too large precipitation at the highest areas of the ice cap. A simple correction of the accumulation at the highest points of the glacier reduces this to 0.15 m w.e. Here, we use HIRHAM5 to simulate the evolution of the SMB of Vatnajökull for the period 1981-2014 and show that the model provides a reasonable representation of the SMB for this period. However, a major source of uncertainty in the representation of the SMB is the representation of the albedo, and processes currently not accounted for in RCMs, such as dust storms, are an important source of uncertainty in estimates of snow melt rate.

Workshop on Evolution of Martian Volatiles. Part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jakosky, B. (Editor); Treiman, A. (Editor)

1996-01-01

This volume contains papers that were presented on February 12-14, 1996 at the Evolution for Martian Volatiles Workshop. Topics in this volume include: returned Martian samples; acidic volatiles and the Mars soil; solar EUV Radiation; the ancient Mars Thermosphere; primitive methane atmospheres on Earth and Mars; the evolution of Martian water; the role of SO2 for the climate history of Mars; impact crater morphology; the formation of the Martian drainage system; atmospheric dust-water ice Interactions; volatiles and volcanos; accretion of interplanetary dust particles; Mars' ionosphere; simulations with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model; modeling the Martian water cycle; the evolution of Martian atmosphere; isotopic composition; solar occultation; magnetic fields; photochemical weathering; NASA's Mars Surveyor Program; iron formations; measurements of Martian atmospheric water vapor; and the thermal evolution Models of Mars.

Precambrian Surface Temperatures and Molecular Phylogeny

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartzman, David; Lineweaver, Charles H.

2004-06-01

The timing of emergence of major organismal groups is consistent with the climatic temperature being equal to their upper temperature limit of growth (T_{max}), implying a temperature constraint on the evolution of each group, with the climatic temperature inferred from the oxygen isotope record of marine cherts. Support for this constraint comes from the correlation of T_{max} with the rRNA molecular phylogenetic distance from the last common ancestor (LCA) for both thermophilic Archaea and Bacteria. In particular, this correlation for hyperthermophilic Archaea suggests a climatic temperature of about 120°C at the time of the LCA, likely in the Hadean.

Stratospheric water vapor feedback.

PubMed

Dessler, A E; Schoeberl, M R; Wang, T; Davis, S M; Rosenlof, K H

2013-11-05

We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry-climate model to be +0.3 W/(m(2)⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.

Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

2010-12-01

Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In : Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. This work is performed in the framework of the SCAMPEI ANR (French research project).

Providing the climatic component in human-climate interaction studies: 550,000 years of climate history in the Chew Bahir basin, a key HSPDP site in southern Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, V. E.; Asrat, A.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Chapot, M. S.; Cohen, A. S.; Dean, J. R.; Deocampo, D.; Deino, A. L.; Guenter, C.; Junginger, A.; Lamb, H. F.; Leng, M. J.; Roberts, H. M.; Schaebitz, F.; Trauth, M. H.

2017-12-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has cored six predominantly lacustrine archives of climate change spanning much of the last 3.5 Ma in eastern Africa. All six sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological sites encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment core, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, covers the past 550 ka of environmental history, an interval marked by intense climatic changes and includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. We present the outcome of lithologic and stratigraphic investigations, first interpretations of high resolution MSCL and XRF scanning data, and initial results of detailed multi-indicator analysis of the Chew Bahir cores. These analyses are based on more than 14,000 discrete samples, including grain size analyses and X-ray diffraction. An initial chronology, based on Ar/Ar and OSL dating, allows temporal calibration of our reconstruction of dry-wet cycles. Both geochemical and sedimentological data show that the Chew Bahir deposits are sensitive recorders of climate change on millennial to centennial timescales. Initial statistical analyses identify phases marked by abrupt climatic changes, whereas several long-term wet-dry oscillations reveal variations mostly in the precession ( 15-25 kyr), but also in the obliquity ( 40 kyr) and eccentricity frequency bands ( 90-120 kyr). The Chew Bahir record will help decode climate variation on several different time scales, as a consequence of orbitally-driven high-latitude glacial-interglacial shifts and variations in greenhouse gases, Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures, as well as local solar irradiance. This 550 ka record of environmental change in eastern Africa will ultimately be used to test hypotheses regarding the impact of climate variability on human evolution, dispersal and technological innovation.

Spatial observation and monitoring of the effects of the "New Climate" Warming on Morocco: Situation of the recent urban floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karrouk, M. S.

2017-12-01

Since the nineties of the last century, climatological research following a great scientific advance in the field of prediction, not the variability and evolution of the different climatic parameters was beginning to be clearer!But today, since the beginning of 2005, certainly due to oceanic thermal cumulations, and the shift of climatic zones towards poles in selective forms (more intense on the oceans present on the continents); Climatic events do not evolve according to the usual and expected rhythms: atmospheric circulation, precipitation, temperatures, seasonal phenomena, etc. These conditions are a spatiotemporal evolution and distribution, which characterize the new "global climate", by the new atmospheric regime imposing the Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), alternating the conditions of Freshness (humidity) and Heat (drought) along the year.In this new situation, Morocco, located in the climate transition zone, is fully affected by the "New Climate". Usually, the atmospheric response to major climatic events (ENSO) in this region such as "El Niño" was characterized by the establishment of the NAO positive index, stability and drought, due to dominance Zonal Atmospheric Circulation in winter. On the other hand, in the "La Niña" episode, the negative index of the NAO and the predominant Meridian Atmospheric Circulation and precipitation became abundant.Since the beginning of this century, qualified meteorological events of "exceptional !" causing floods have continued to occur in Morocco and elsewhere, with increasing recurrence, prompting us to wonder about the "new" mode of hydro-thermal function of the climate system that induces torrential rains, as well as its effect on environments and societies.The latest event is the flood disaster in October 2016 in the Laâyoune region of southern Morocco, which specializes in the unusual return of rain in a region considered dry and Saharan.Thanks to spatial observation and monitoring of meteorological conditions over the last 15 years, these types of alternating Heat / Cold conditions have become predictable, enabling decision-makers today to prepare adequately for the management of related risks to the "New Climate" warmed.

Environmental conditions and geomorphologic changes during the Middle-Upper Paleolithic in the southern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Rodríguez-Vidal, Joaquín; Finlayson, Clive; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisca; Carrión, José S.; García-Alix, Antonio; Paytan, Adina; Giles Pacheco, Francisco; Fa, Darren A.; Finlayson, Geraldine; Cortés-Sánchez, Miguel; Rodrigo Gámiz, Marta; González-Donoso, José M.; Linares, M. Dolores; Cáceres, Luis M.; Fernández, Santiago; Iijima, Koichi; Martínez Aguirre, Aranzazu

2013-01-01

This study utilizes geomorphology, marine sediment data, environmental reconstructions and the Gorham's Cave occupational record during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition to illustrate the impacts of climate changes on human population dynamics in the Western Mediterranean. Geomorphologic evolution has been dated and appears to be driven primarily by coastal dune systems, sea-level changes and seismo-tectonic evolution. Continental and marine records are well correlated and used to interpret the Gorham's Cave sequence. Specific focus is given to the three hiatus sections found in Gorham's Cave during Heinrich periods 4, 3 and 2. These time intervals are compared with a wide range of regional geomorphologic, climatic, paleoseismic, faunal and archeological records. Our data compilations indicate that climatic and local geomorphologic changes explain the Homo sapiens spp. occupational hiatuses during Heinrich periods 4 and 3. The last hiatus corresponds to the replacement of Homo neanderthalensis by H. sapiens. Records of dated cave openings, slope breccias and stalactite falls suggest that marked geomorphologic changes, seismic activity and ecological perturbations occurred during the period when Homo replacement took place.

Soils evolution and treeline fluctuations under late Holocene climatic changes: an integrated approach from Valle d'Aosta (Western European Alps, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masseroli, Anna; Leonelli, Giovanni; Verrecchia, Eric P.; Sebag, David; Pozzi, Emanuele D.; Pelfini, Manuela; Maggi, Valter; Trombino, Luca

2017-04-01

The treeline ecotone, defined as the transition belt in mountain vegetation between the closed forest (timberline) and the alpine grasslands, is one of the most distinctive features of mountain environments and it is widely considered as a climatic boundary. Treeline altitudinal fluctuations may be considered to assess past and ongoing climatic and environmental changes. Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone is mainly influenced by climate, especially by soil temperature, climatic parameters are not the only factors that influence the treeline position. In fact, the treeline altitude may be locally influenced by environmental factors, geomorphological processes, soil development, and human activities. This study aims at the reconstruction of late Holocene soil evolution and environmental changes at the treeline on the SW slope of the Becca di Viou Mountain in Valle d'Aosta (Western Italian Alps). First, we performed a detailed reconstruction of the treeline altitudinal dynamics. In addition, field (including air and soil temperatures) and laboratory (of both mineral and organic compounds) characterizations have been performed along two transects of seven soil profiles developing at an altitude ranging from 2100 m a.s.l. (closed forest) to 2400 m a.s.l. (treeline ecotone), in order to understand the relationships between colonization by trees and soil development under the ongoing climate change. The upward shift of the treeline was assessed analyzing tree age distribution along the slope by means of a tree-ring based approach. The reconstruction of the treeline altitudinal dynamics (based on years at which the trees reached 2 m in height) at the study site reveals an upward shift of 115 m over the period 1901-2000, reaching the altitude of 2515 m a.s.l. in 2008. The recent treeline shift and the acceleration of tree colonization rates in the alpine belt can be mainly attributed to a climatic input, and particularly to an increasing temperature. The investigated soils show a decreasing development with increasing altitude. Indeed, in the forest area (about 2100 m a.s.l.) soils are well developed (i.e. Podzol), but at higher altitude, they are less developed (i.e. Ranker). In the treeline ecotone, possible traces of Paleosols are also observed. However, future treeline upward shifts in the study area might be severely limited by the geomorphic processes: even if temperature will continue to increase, at higher altitudes, the treeline will meet harsher geomorphic environments characterized by high-energy gravity processes and rock faces that impede soil evolution and tree colonization. The integrated analysis of geopedological, dendrochronological and climate data will provide high resolution information about the responses of high-altitude biological and abiological systems through the Holocene and to the ongoing climate change.

Weather and the Built Environment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This course provides broadcast meteorologists, educators, and the public with an overview of the evolution of our modern urban environment with a focus on impacts on the urban watershed, air quality, and climate.

Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. M.

2015-12-01

The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

Deciphering the History of Martian Volatiles: A Multi-Component Space Exploration Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chassefiere, E.

2000-07-01

To characterize Mars climate evolution requires to trace back the history of volatile species, including water. Indeed, atmospheric gases control, through UV-visible absorption and IR radiative transfer, the thermal structure of the atmosphere, the surface temperature, and ultimately the global hydrological system, which is a major component of the present Earth climate system. The composition and mass of the atmosphere is controlled by physical/chemical processes acting as sources (outgassing) or sinks (atmospheric escape, surface weathering, physical trapping in the subsurface). The history of volatiles is influenced by inner planet processes, like core convection which may give rise to a planetary-scale magnetic field able to withhold the atmosphere from the solar wind, inhibiting escape, or mantle convection, through outgassing and recycling of gas by geochemical cycles. Conversely, atmosphere may possibly retroact on the inner planet dynamical regime, for example if large amounts of liquid water are maintained at the surface by greenhouse effect, which could favour specific tectonism styles (like plate tectonism). The history of volatiles may therefore be related, not only to climate, but also to the thermal history of the inner planet, through a complicated chain of causes and effects. It is an essential link for reconstructing the global evolution of the Mars system. Focusing on climate, it appears that, provided the present climate system is understood and modelled, it must be possible to extrapolate to the past, provided the way the atmosphere evolved is known, as well as solar emission fluxes controlling thermal structure and escape.

Evolution of Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature over Different Climatic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajendran, V.; C T, D.; Chakravorty, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

The increase in drought, flood, diseases, crop failure etc. in the recent past has created an alarm amongst the researchers. One of the main reasons behind the intensification of these environmental hazards is the recent revelation of climate change, which is generally attributed to the human induced global warming, represented by an increase in global mean temperature. However, in order to formulate policies to mitigate and prevent the threats due to global warming, its key driving factors should be analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution. Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of the indicators of global warming. The study of the evolution of the DTR is crucial, since it affects agriculture, health, ecosystems, transport, etc. Recent studies reveal that diurnal asymmetry has decreased globally, whereas a few regional studies report a contradictory pattern and attributed them to localized feedback processes. However, an evident conclusion cannot be made using the linear trend approaches employed in the past studies and the evolution of diurnal asymmetry should be investigated using non-linear trend approach for better perception. Hence, the regional evolution of DTR trend has been analysed using the spatially-temporally Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method over India and observed a positive trend in over-all mean of DTR, while its rate of increase has declined in the recent decades. Further, the grids showing negative trend in DTR is observed in arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands and positive trend over the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the North-East. This transition predominantly began from the west coast and is stretched with an increase in magnitude. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon seasons, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum temperature. These analyses suggest that the DTR changes are influenced by both, local and global factors working in tandem, since a warmed up ocean produces contradictory DTR trends in different climatic zones. It can be inferred from this study that the impact of a global change in a region will depend on the regional climate.

A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: Implications for Holocene ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sang; Hoffmann, Sharon S.; Lund, David C.; Cobb, Kim M.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Adkins, Jess F.

2016-05-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of interannual climate variability in the tropics and subtropics. Despite substantial progress in understanding ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO today, relatively little is known about its behavior on centennial and longer timescales. Paleoclimate records from lakes, corals, molluscs and deep-sea sediments generally suggest that ENSO variability was weaker during the mid-Holocene (4-6 kyr BP) than the late Holocene (0-4 kyr BP). However, discrepancies amongst the records preclude a clear timeline of Holocene ENSO evolution and therefore the attribution of ENSO variability to specific climate forcing mechanisms. Here we present δ18 O results from a U-Th dated speleothem in Malaysian Borneo sampled at sub-annual resolution. The δ18 O of Borneo rainfall is a robust proxy of regional convective intensity and precipitation amount, both of which are directly influenced by ENSO activity. Our estimates of stalagmite δ18 O variance at ENSO periods (2-7 yr) show a significant reduction in interannual variability during the mid-Holocene (3240-3380 and 5160-5230 yr BP) relative to both the late Holocene (2390-2590 yr BP) and early Holocene (6590-6730 yr BP). The Borneo results are therefore inconsistent with lacustrine records of ENSO from the eastern equatorial Pacific that show little or no ENSO variance during the early Holocene. Instead, our results support coral, mollusc and foraminiferal records from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that show a mid-Holocene minimum in ENSO variance. Reduced mid-Holocene interannual δ18 O variability in Borneo coincides with an overall minimum in mean δ18 O from 3.5 to 5.5 kyr BP. Persistent warm pool convection would tend to enhance the Walker circulation during the mid-Holocene, which likely contributed to reduced ENSO variance during this period. This finding implies that both convective intensity and interannual variability in Borneo are driven by coupled air-sea dynamics that are sensitive to precessional insolation forcing. Isolating the exact mechanisms that drive long-term ENSO evolution will require additional high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions and further investigation of Holocene tropical climate evolution using coupled climate models.

VICI (Venus In Situ Composition Investigations): The Next Step in Understanding Venus Climate Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaze, L. S.; Garvin, J. B.

2017-12-01

Venus provides a natural laboratory to explore an example of terrestrial planet evolution that may be cosmically ubiquitous. By better understanding the composition of the Venus atmosphere and surface, we can better constrain the efficiency of the Venusian greenhouse. VICI is a proposed NASA New Frontiers mission that delivers two landers to Venus on two separate Venus fly-bys. Following six orbital remote sensing missions to Venus (since 1978), VICI would be the first mission to land on the Venus surface since 1985, and the first U.S. mission to enter the Venus atmosphere in 49 years. The four major VICI science objectives are: Atmospheric origin and evolution: Understand the origin of the Venus atmosphere, how it has evolved, including how recently Venus lost its oceans, and how and why it is different from the atmospheres of Earth and Mars, through in situ measurements of key noble gases, nitrogen, and hydrogen. Atmospheric composition and structure: Reveal the unknown chemical processes and structure in Venus' deepest atmosphere that dominate the current climate through two comprehensive, in situ vertical profiles. Surface properties and geologic evolution: For the first time ever, explore the tessera from the surface, specifically to test hypotheses of ancient content-building cycles, erosion, and links to past climates using multi-point mineralogy, elemental chemistry, imaging and topography. Surface-atmosphere interactions: Characterize Venus' surface weathering environment and provide insight into the sulfur cycle at the surface-atmosphere interface by integrating rich atmospheric composition and structure datasets with imaging, surface mineralogy, and elemental rock composition. VICI is designed to study Venus' climate history through detailed atmospheric composition measurements not possible on earlier missions. In addition, VICI images the tessera surface during descent enabling detailed topography to be generated. Finally, VICI makes multiple elemental chemistry measurements, including depth profiles through the weathering rind and subsurface, and the first ever direct mineralogy measurements on the Venus surface. VICI's payloads build on the success of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) by carrying the same instrumentation that has delivered high-impact science results on Mars.

A model for the hydrologic and climatic behavior of water on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, Stephen M.

1993-01-01

An analysis is carried out of the hydrologic response of a water-rich Mars to climate change and to the physical and thermal evolution of its crust, with particular attention given to the potential role of the subsurface transport, assuming that the current models of insolation-driven change describe reasonably the atmospheric leg of the planet's long-term hydrologic cycle. Among the items considered are the thermal and hydrologic properties of the crust, the potential distribution of ground ice and ground water, the stability and replenishment of equatorial ground ice, basal melting and the polar mass balance, the thermal evolution of the early cryosphere, the recharge of the valley networks and outflow, and several processes that are likely to drive the large-scale vertical and horizontal transport of H2O within the crust. The results lead to the conclusion that subsurface transport has likely played an important role in the geomorphic evolution of the Martian surface and the long-term cycling of H2O between the atmosphere, polar caps, and near-surface crust.

Improved heat tolerance in air drives the recurrent evolution of air-breathing.

PubMed

Giomi, Folco; Fusi, Marco; Barausse, Alberto; Mostert, Bruce; Pörtner, Hans-Otto; Cannicci, Stefano

2014-05-07

The transition to air-breathing by formerly aquatic species has occurred repeatedly and independently in fish, crabs and other animal phyla, but the proximate drivers of this key innovation remain a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. Most studies attribute the onset of air-breathing to the repeated occurrence of aquatic hypoxia; however, this hypothesis leaves the current geographical distribution of the 300 genera of air-breathing crabs unexplained. Here, we show that their occurrence is mainly related to high environmental temperatures in the tropics. We also demonstrate in an amphibious crab that the reduced cost of oxygen supply in air extends aerobic performance to higher temperatures and thus widens the animal's thermal niche. These findings suggest that high water temperature as a driver consistently explains the numerous times air-breathing has evolved. The data also indicate a central role for oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance not only in shaping sensitivity to current climate change but also in underpinning the climate-dependent evolution of animals, in this case the evolution of air-breathing.

Improved heat tolerance in air drives the recurrent evolution of air-breathing

PubMed Central

Giomi, Folco; Fusi, Marco; Barausse, Alberto; Mostert, Bruce; Pörtner, Hans-Otto; Cannicci, Stefano

2014-01-01

The transition to air-breathing by formerly aquatic species has occurred repeatedly and independently in fish, crabs and other animal phyla, but the proximate drivers of this key innovation remain a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. Most studies attribute the onset of air-breathing to the repeated occurrence of aquatic hypoxia; however, this hypothesis leaves the current geographical distribution of the 300 genera of air-breathing crabs unexplained. Here, we show that their occurrence is mainly related to high environmental temperatures in the tropics. We also demonstrate in an amphibious crab that the reduced cost of oxygen supply in air extends aerobic performance to higher temperatures and thus widens the animal's thermal niche. These findings suggest that high water temperature as a driver consistently explains the numerous times air-breathing has evolved. The data also indicate a central role for oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance not only in shaping sensitivity to current climate change but also in underpinning the climate-dependent evolution of animals, in this case the evolution of air-breathing. PMID:24619438

Investigating yellow dung fly body size evolution in the field: Response to climate change?

PubMed

Blanckenhorn, Wolf U

2015-08-01

Uncovering genetic responses to selection in wild populations typically requires tracking individuals over generations and use of animal models. Our group monitored the body size of one Swiss Yellow Dung Fly (Scathophaga stercoraria; Diptera: Scathophagidae) field population over 15 years, including intermittent common-garden rearing in the laboratory to assess body size with minimized environmental and maximized genetic variation. Contrary to expectations based on repeated heritability and phenotypic selection assessments over the years (reported elsewhere), field body sizes declined by >10% and common-garden laboratory sizes by >5% from 1993 to 2009. Our results confirm the temperature-size rule (smaller when warmer) and, albeit entirely correlational, could be mediated by climate change, as over this period mean temperature at the site increased by 0.5°C, although alternative systematic environmental changes cannot be entirely excluded. Monitoring genetic responses to selection in wild invertebrate populations is thus possible, though indirect, and wild populations may evolve in directions not consistent with strongly positive directional selection favoring large body size. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Unravelling environmental conditions during the Holocene in the Dead Sea region using multiple archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rambeau, Claire; van Leeuwen, Jacqueline; van der Knaap, Pim; Gobet, Erika

2016-04-01

For the most arid parts of the Southern Levant (roughly corresponding to modern Jordan, Israel and Palestine), environmental reconstructions are impeded by the limited number of archives, and the frequent contradictions between individual palaeoenvironmental records. The Southern Levant is characterised by steep climate gradients; local conditions presently range from arid to dry Mediterranean, with limits that may have fluctuated during the Holocene. This further complicates the determination of site-specific past environmental conditions. Understanding past climate and environmental evolution through time, at a local level, is however crucial to compare these with societal evolution during the Holocene, which features major cultural developments such as cereal cultivation, animal domestication, water management, as well as times of preferential settlement growth or site abandonment. This contribution proposes to examine the different archives available for the Dead Sea region, paying special attention to the most recent pollen data obtained from the area. It will particularly critically compare local to regional-scale information, and try to decipher the main evolutions of environmental conditions during the Holocene in arid and semi-arid Southern Levant.

Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision since the late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

2016-09-01

Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Kangra Basin (northwest Sub-Himalaya, India), upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 103 to 105 yr. To evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, we compare the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with climate archives. New surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic 10Be indicates the onset of incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest preserved alluvial fan (AF1) date back to 53.4 ± 3.2 ka and 43.0 ± 2.7 ka (1σ). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.2 ka and 15.3 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the upper Pleistocene-Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 9.3 ± 0.4 ka (T3), 7.1 ± 0.4 ka (T4), 5.2 ± 0.4 ka (T5) and 3.6 ± 0.2 ka (T6). Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon. During periods of increased monsoon intensity and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with incision.

Plastic responses to elevated temperature in low and high elevation populations of three grassland species.

PubMed

Frei, Esther R; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Pluess, Andrea R

2014-01-01

Local persistence of plant species in the face of climate change is largely mediated by genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. In species with a wide altitudinal range, population responses to global warming are likely to differ at contrasting elevations. In controlled climate chambers, we investigated the responses of low and high elevation populations (1200 and 1800 m a.s.l.) of three nutrient-poor grassland species, Trifolium montanum, Ranunculus bulbosus, and Briza media, to ambient and elevated temperature. We measured growth-related, reproductive and phenological traits, evaluated differences in trait plasticity and examined whether trait values or plasticities were positively related to approximate fitness and thus under selection. Elevated temperature induced plastic responses in several growth-related traits of all three species. Although flowering phenology was advanced in T. montanum and R. bulbosus, number of flowers and reproductive allocation were not increased under elevated temperature. Plasticity differed between low and high elevation populations only in leaf traits of T. montanum and B. media. Some growth-related and phenological traits were under selection. Moreover, plasticities were not correlated with approximate fitness indicating selectively neutral plastic responses to elevated temperature. The observed plasticity in growth-related and phenological traits, albeit variable among species, suggests that plasticity is an important mechanism in mediating plant responses to elevated temperature. However, the capacity of species to respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity is limited suggesting that the species additionally need evolutionary adaptation to adjust to climate change. The observed selection on several growth-related and phenological traits indicates that the study species have the potential for future evolution in the context of a warming climate.

ICLEA - The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Markus J.; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Blume, Theresa; Itzerott, Sibylle; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin; Iclea Team

2016-04-01

In the Virtual Institute ICLEA we view on past changes as natural experiments as a guidebook for better anticipation of future changes and their impacts. Since the natural evolution became increasingly superimposed by human impacts since the Neolithic we include an in-depth discussion of impacts of climate and environment change on societies and vice versa. The partner focusing their research capacities and expertise in ICLEA and offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Training, Research and Analytical workshops between research partners of ICLEA are an important measure to qualify young researchers. Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (I) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (II) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands will be facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. Five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects: WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 are focused on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments cover the entire research time interval at seasonal to decadal resolution and palaeosoils and geomorphological features also cover the entire period but not continuously and with lower resolution. Complementary information, like climate, tree ecophysiological and limnological data etc., are provided by cooperation with associated partners. Further information about ICLEA: www.iclea.de

Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to benchmark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capron, E.; Govin, A.; Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolff, E. W.

2017-07-01

The Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 thousand years ago, ka) represents an excellent case study to investigate the response of sensitive components of the Earth System and mechanisms of high-latitude amplification to a climate warmer than present-day. The Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 4, hereafter referred as PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6, hereafter referred as CMIP6) are coordinating the design of (1) a LIG Tier 1 equilibrium simulation to simulate the climate response at 127 ka, a time interval associated with a strong orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations close to preindustrial levels and (2) associated Tier 2 sensitivity experiments to examine the role of the ocean, vegetation and dust feedbacks in modulating the response to this orbital forcing. Evaluating the capability of the CMIP6/PMIP4 models to reproduce the 127 ka polar and sub-polar climate will require appropriate data-based benchmarks which are currently missing. Based on a recent data synthesis that offers the first spatio-temporal representation of high-latitude (i.e. poleward of 40°N and 40°S) surface temperature evolution during the LIG, we produce a new 126-128 ka time slab, hereafter named 127 ka time slice. This 127 ka time slice represents surface temperature anomalies relative to preindustrial and is associated with quantitative estimates of the uncertainties related to relative dating and surface temperature reconstruction methods. It illustrates warmer-than-preindustrial conditions in the high-latitude regions of both hemispheres. In particular, summer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic region were on average 1.1 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.7 °C) warmer relative to preindustrial and 1.8 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.8 °C) in the Southern Ocean. In Antarctica, average 127 ka annual surface air temperature was 2.2 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 1.4 °C) warmer compared to preindustrial. We provide a critical evaluation of the latest LIG surface climate compilations that are available for evaluating LIG climate model experiments. We discuss in particular our new 127 ka time-slice in the context of existing LIG surface temperature time-slices. We also compare the 127 ka time slice with the ones published for the 125 and 130 ka time intervals and we discuss the potential and limits of a data-based time slice at 127 ka in the context of the upcoming coordinated modeling exercise. Finally we provide guidance on the use of the available LIG climate compilations for future model-data comparison exercises in the framework of the upcoming CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka experiments. We do not recommend the use of LIG peak warmth-centered syntheses. Instead we promote the use of the most recent syntheses that are based on coherent chronologies between paleoclimatic records and provide spatio-temporal reconstruction of the LIG climate. In particular, we recommend using our new 127 ka data-based time slice in model-data comparison studies with a focus on the high-latitude climate.

Use of Multiple Isotopic Systems to Interpret Ecosystem Processes in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, O.; Derry, L.; Vitousek, P.

2007-12-01

The Hawaiian Islands are an excellent natural laboratory for studying the way in which ecosystems develop and function under varying climates. The mantle-derived basalt parent material provides a constant reaction matrix, the trade winds provide an asymmetric climate pattern that means that the same-age lava flows can be studied under different forcing factors, the relatively few plant species that made it to Hawaii provide a simplified biotic influence on substrate. In essence, we find that the geochemical evolution of basalt weathering provides shifting boundary conditions that constrain ecosystem potentialities, and allows us to apply a number of isotopic systems to enhance the specificity of our interpretation of ecosystem processes. We have applied the following isotopes to assist us in understanding the processes that impact ecosystems: O, C, Sr, Ca, N, Si and Be, and are presently exploring the use of S and Mg. We use these isotopic systems within a matrix of controls that allows us to focus on specific questions. The isotopic signatures from different isotopic systems can define climate- response patterns that are non-linear with each defining different threshold and plateau in rainfall space. Measurement of these isotopic systems allows us to evaluate multiple chemical behaviors at once and to evaluate expected responses to perturbations to any of these tracers in response to past or future changes in climate or other ecosystem drives such as land cover change. For instance, based on deep-soil samples, the plants that grew before humans reached Hawaii have C13 values that drop from -14 per mil to -26 per mil as rainfall increases from 200 mm to 3000 mm. Today the surface-soil values remain close to -14 per mil throughout the rainfall gradient due to the introduction of C4 grasses for pasture. Along the same rainfall gradient, Sr isotopes demonstrate that as C3 plants began to predominate there was a fundmental shift in nutrients supplied from rocks to those supplied by rainfall.

Comparison of a spatio-temporal speleothem-based reconstruction of late Holocene climate variability to the timing of cultural developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deininger, Michael; Lippold, Jörg; Abele, Florian; McDermott, Frank

2016-04-01

Speleothems are considered as a valuable continental climate archive. Their δ18O records provide information onto past changes of the atmospheric circulation accompanied by changes in surface air temperature and precipitation. During the last decades European speleothem studies have assembled a European speleothem network (including numerous speleothem δ18O records) that allow now not only to picture past climate variability in time but also in space. In particular the climate variability of the last 4.5 ka was investigated by these studies. This allows the comparison of the speleothem-based reconstructed palaeoclimate with the timings of the rise and fall of ancient civilisations in this period - including the Dark Ages. Here we evaluate a compilation of 10 speleothem δ18O records covering the last 4.5 ka using a Monte Carlo based Principal Component Analysis (MC-PCA) that accounts for uncertainties in individual speleothem age models and for the different and varying temporal resolutions of each speleothem δ18O record. Our MC-PCA approach allows not only the identification of temporally coherent changes in δ18O records, i.e. the common signal in all investigated speleothem δ18O records, but it also facilitates their depiction and evaluation spatially. The speleothem δ18O records are spanning almost the entire European continent ranging from the western Margin of the European continent to Northern Turkey and from Northern Italy to Norway. For the MC-PCA analysis the 4.5 ka are divided into eight 1ka long time windows that overlap the subsequent time window by 500 years to allow a comparison of the spatio-temporal evolution of the common signal. For every single time window we derive a common mode of climate variability of all speleothem δ18O records as well as its spatial extent. This allows us to compare the rise and fall of ancient civilisations, like the Hittite and the Roman Empire, with our reconstructed spatio-temporal record.

Quantifying alluvial fan sensitivity to climate in Death Valley, California, from field observations and numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooke, Sam; Whittaker, Alexander; Armitage, John; D'Arcy, Mitch; Watkins, Stephen

2017-04-01

A quantitative understanding of landscape sensitivity to climate change remains a key challenge in the Earth Sciences. The stream-flow deposits of coupled catchment-fan systems offer one way to decode past changes in external boundary conditions as they comprise simple, closed systems that can be represented effectively by numerical models. Here we combine the collection and analysis of grain size data on well-dated alluvial fan surfaces in Death Valley, USA, with numerical modelling to address the extent to which sediment routing systems record high-frequency, high-magnitude climate change. We compile a new database of Holocene and Late-Pleistocene grain size trends from 11 alluvial fans in Death Valley, capturing high-resolution grain size data ranging from the Recent to 100 kyr in age. We hypothesise the observed changes in average surface grain size and fining rate over time are a record of landscape response to glacial-interglacial climatic forcing. With this data we are in a unique position to test the predictions of landscape evolution models and evaluate the extent to which climate change has influenced the volume and calibre of sediment deposited on alluvial fans. To gain insight into our field data and study area, we employ an appropriately-scaled catchment-fan model that calculates an eroded volumetric sediment budget to be deposited in a subsiding basin according to mass balance where grain size trends are predicted by a self-similarity fining model. We use the model to compare predicted trends in alluvial fan stratigraphy as a function of boundary condition change for a range of model parameters and input grain size distributions. Subsequently, we perturb our model with a plausible glacial-interglacial magnitude precipitation change to estimate the requisite sediment flux needed to generate observed field grain size trends in Death Valley. Modelled fluxes are then compared with independent measurements of sediment supply over time. Our results constitute one of the first attempts to combine the detailed collection of alluvial fan grain size data in time and space with coupled catchment-fan models, affording us the means to evaluate how well field and model data can be reconciled for simple sediment routing systems.

Controls on Weathering of Pyrrhotite in a Low-Sulfide, Granitic Mine-Waste Rock in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langman, J. B.; Holland, S.; Sinclair, S.; Blowes, D.

2013-12-01

Increased environmental risk is incurred with expansion of mineral extraction in the Arctic. A greater understanding of geochemical processes associated with hard-rock mining in this cold climate is needed to evaluate and mitigate these risks. A laboratory and in-situ experiment was conducted to examine mineral weathering and the generation of acid rock drainage in a low-sulfide, run-of-mine waste rock in an Arctic climate. Rock with different concentrations of sulfides (primarily pyrrhotite [Fe7S8] containing small amounts of Co and Ni) and carbonates were weathered in the laboratory and in-situ, large-scale test piles to examine leachate composition and mineral weathering. The relatively larger sulfide-containing rock produced sufficient acid to overcome carbonate buffering and produced a declining pH environment with concomitant release of SO4, Fe, Co, and Ni. Following carbonate consumption, aluminosilicate buffering stabilized the pH above 4 until a reduction in acid generation. Results from the laboratory experiment assisted in determining that after consumption of 1.6 percent of the total sulfide, the larger sulfide-concentration test pile likely is at an internal steady-state or maximal weathering rate after seven years of precipitation input and weathering that is controlled by an annual freeze-thaw cycle. Further weathering of the test pile should be driven by external factors of temperature and precipitation in this Arctic, semi-arid region instead of internal factors of wetting and non-equilibrium buffering. It is predicted that maximal weathering will continue until at least 20 percent of the total sulfide is consumed. Using the identified evolution of sulfide consumption in this Arctic climate, a variable rate factor can now be assessed for the possible early evolution and maximal weathering of larger scale waste-rock piles and seasonal differences because of changes in the volume of a waste-rock pile undergoing active weathering due to the freeze-thaw cycle. Such rate factors are necessary to predict acid rock drainage and implement best management practices to minimize environmental impacts. To better understand the early geochemical evolution of the waste rock, sulfide minerals from different periods in the experiments were analyzed for discrete mineral characteristics indicative of a weathered state. Element transfer from the mineral to aqueous phase is transport limited because of the formation of Fe-(oxy)hydroxide weathered rims that can be an inhibitor of dissolution. Application of various x-ray spectroscopy techniques indicated that pyrrhotite transforms to marcasite [FeS2] prior to formation of Fe(II)-(oxy)hydroxides and further to Fe(III)-hydroxide/oxides. Iron appears to migrate through the weathered rims leaving the S-rich layer behind, and oxygen likely is retarded from migrating inward with formation of Fe(III) species. As these Fe-mineral transformations occur, they influence the retention of the secondary metals such as Co and Ni that preferentially remain in the +2 oxidation state and may leave the system as hydroxides, oxides, and sulfates. Understanding mineral evolution in this climate assists in adjusting appropriate rate factors for temporal changes in element release from the weathering of the pyrrhotite.

IODP workshop: developing scientific drilling proposals for the Argentina Passive Volcanic Continental Margin (APVCM) - basin evolution, deep biosphere, hydrates, sediment dynamics and ocean evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood, Roger D.; Violante, Roberto A.; Gorgas, Thomas; Schwarz, Ernesto; Grützner, Jens; Uenzelmann-Neben, Gabriele; Hernández-Molina, F. Javier; Biddle, Jennifer; St-Onge, Guillaume; Workshop Participants, Apvcm

2017-05-01

The Argentine margin contains important sedimentological, paleontological and chemical records of regional and local tectonic evolution, sea level, climate evolution and ocean circulation since the opening of the South Atlantic in the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous as well as the present-day results of post-depositional chemical and biological alteration. Despite its important location, which underlies the exchange of southern- and northern-sourced water masses, the Argentine margin has not been investigated in detail using scientific drilling techniques, perhaps because the margin has the reputation of being erosional. However, a number of papers published since 2009 have reported new high-resolution and/or multichannel seismic surveys, often combined with multi-beam bathymetric data, which show the common occurrence of layered sediments and prominent sediment drifts on the Argentine and adjacent Uruguayan margins. There has also been significant progress in studying the climatic records in surficial and near-surface sediments recovered in sediment cores from the Argentine margin. Encouraged by these recent results, our 3.5-day IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) workshop in Buenos Aires (8-11 September 2015) focused on opportunities for scientific drilling on the Atlantic margin of Argentina, which lies beneath a key portion of the global ocean conveyor belt of thermohaline circulation. Significant opportunities exist to study the tectonic evolution, paleoceanography and stratigraphy, sedimentology, and biosphere and geochemistry of this margin.

Hillslope Evolution by Bedrock Landslides

PubMed

Densmore; Anderson; McAdoo; Ellis

1997-01-17

Bedrock landsliding is a dominant geomorphic process in a number of high-relief landscapes, yet is neglected in landscape evolution models. A physical model of sliding in beans is presented, in which incremental lowering of one wall simulates baselevel fall and generates slides. Frequent small slides produce irregular hillslopes, on which steep toes and head scarps persist until being cleared by infrequent large slides. These steep segments are observed on hillslopes in high-relief landscapes and have been interpreted as evidence for increases in tectonic or climatic process rates. In certain cases, they may instead reflect normal hillslope evolution by landsliding.

Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Enhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress-related losses.

PubMed

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders

2016-06-01

Assessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress-induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Enhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress–related losses

PubMed Central

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders

2016-01-01

Assessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress–induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken. PMID:27386555

The current evolution of complex high mountain debris-covered glacier systems and its relation with ground ice nature and distribution: the case of Rognes and Pierre Ronde area (Mont-Blanc range, France).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosson, Jean-Baptiste; Lambiel, Christophe

2014-05-01

The current climate forcing, through negative glacier mass balance and rockfall intensification, is leading to the rapid burring of many small glacier systems. When the debris mantle exceeds some centimeters of thickness, the climate control on ice melt is mitigated and delayed. As well, debris-covered glaciers respond to climate forcing in a complex way. This situation is emphasised in high mountain environments, where topo-climatic conditions, such as cold temperatures, amount of solid precipitation, duration of snow cover, nebulosity or shadow effect of rockwalls, limit the influence of rising air temperatures in the ground. Beside, due to Holocene climate history, glacier-permafrost interactions are not rare within the periglacial belt. Glacier recurrence may have removed and assimilated former ice-cemented sediments, the negative mass balance may have led to the formation of ice-cored rock glaciers and neopermafrost may have formed recently under cold climate conditions. Hence, in addition to sedimentary ice, high mountain debris-covered glacier systems can contain interstitial magmatic ice. Especially because of their position at the top of alpine cascade systems and of the amount of water and (unconsolidated) sediment involved, it is important to understand and anticipate the evolution of these complex landforms. Due to the continuous and thick debris mantle and to the common existence of dead ice in deglaciated areas, the current extent of debris-covered glacier can be difficult to point out. Thus, the whole system, according to Little Ice Age (LIA) extent, has sometimes to be investigated to understand the current response of glacier systems to the climate warming. In this context, two neighbouring sites, Rognes and Pierre Ronde systems (45°51'38''N, 6°48'40''E; 2600-3100m a.s.l), have been studied since 2011. These sites are almost completely debris-covered and only few ice outcrops in the upper slopes still witness the existence of former glaciers. Electrical resistivity tomographies, kinematic data and ground surface temperature show that heterogeneous responses to climate forcing are occurring despites their small areas (> 0.3 km2). This complex situation is related to Holocene climate history and especially to glacier systems evolution since LIA. The current dynamics depend of ground ice nature and distribution. Five main behaviours can be highlighted: - Debris covered glacier areas are the most active. Their responses to climate forcing are relatively fast, especially through massive ice melt-out each summer. - Ice-cored rock glacier areas are quite active. The existence of massive glacier ice under few meters of debris explain the important surface lowering during the snow free period . - Ice-cemented rock glacier areas are characterised by winter and summer subhorizontal downslope creeping. - Moraine areas containing dead ice have heterogeneous activities (directions and values of detected movements) related to the ice vanishing. - Deglaciated moraine areas are almost inactive, except modest superficial paraglacial rebalancing.

Origins and Dynamics of Interplanetary Dust Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dermott, Stanley F.

2005-01-01

This is a final report for research supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration issued through the Office of Space Science Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program, covering all relevant activities during its 3-year period of funding from 02/01/2002 through to 01/31/2005. The ongoing aim of the research supported through this grant, and now through a successor award, is to investigate the origin of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) and their dynamical and collisional evolution, in order to: (1) understand the provenance of zodiacal cloud particles and their transport from their source regions to the inner solar system; (2) produce detailed models of the zodiacal cloud and its constituent components; (3) determine the origin of the dust particles accreted by the Earth; (4) ascertain the level of temporal variations in the dust environment of the inner solar system and the accretion rate of IDPs by the Earth, and evaluate potential effects on global climate; and to (5) exploit this research as a basis for interpreting the structure observed in exozodiacal clouds that may result from the collisional evolution of planetesimals and the presence of unseen planets.

Paleomagnetic Studies of Returned Samples from Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, B. P.; Beaty, D. W.; McSween, H. Y.; Carrier, B. L.; Czaja, A. D.; Goreva, Y. S.; Hausrath, E.; Herd, C. D. K.; Humayun, M.; McCubbin, F. M.; McLennan, S. M.; Pratt, L. M.; Sephton, M. A.; Steele, A.

2018-04-01

Magnetic measurements of returned samples could transform our understanding of the martian dynamo and its connection to climatic and planetary thermal evolution and provide powerful constraints on the preservation state of sample biosignatures.

Remnants of an ancient forest provide ecological context for Early Miocene fossil apes.

PubMed

Michel, Lauren A; Peppe, Daniel J; Lutz, James A; Driese, Steven G; Dunsworth, Holly M; Harcourt-Smith, William E H; Horner, William H; Lehmann, Thomas; Nightingale, Sheila; McNulty, Kieran P

2014-01-01

The lineage of apes and humans (Hominoidea) evolved and radiated across Afro-Arabia in the early Neogene during a time of global climatic changes and ongoing tectonic processes that formed the East African Rift. These changes probably created highly variable environments and introduced selective pressures influencing the diversification of early apes. However, interpreting the connection between environmental dynamics and adaptive evolution is hampered by difficulties in locating taxa within specific ecological contexts: time-averaged or reworked deposits may not faithfully represent individual palaeohabitats. Here we present multiproxy evidence from Early Miocene deposits on Rusinga Island, Kenya, which directly ties the early ape Proconsul to a widespread, dense, multistoried, closed-canopy tropical seasonal forest set in a warm and relatively wet, local climate. These results underscore the importance of forested environments in the evolution of early apes.

Oligocene primates from China reveal divergence between African and Asian primate evolution.

PubMed

Ni, Xijun; Li, Qiang; Li, Lüzhou; Beard, K Christopher

2016-05-06

Profound environmental and faunal changes are associated with climatic deterioration during the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) roughly 34 million years ago. Reconstructing how Asian primates responded to the EOT has been hindered by a sparse record of Oligocene primates on that continent. Here, we report the discovery of a diverse primate fauna from the early Oligocene of southern China. In marked contrast to Afro-Arabian Oligocene primate faunas, this Asian fauna is dominated by strepsirhines. There appears to be a strong break between Paleogene and Neogene Asian anthropoid assemblages. Asian and Afro-Arabian primate faunas responded differently to EOT climatic deterioration, indicating that the EOT functioned as a critical evolutionary filter constraining the subsequent course of primate evolution across the Old World. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The ANTOSTRAT legacy: Science collaboration and international transparency in potential marine mineral resource exploitation of Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooper, Alan; Barker, Peter; Barrett, Peter; Behrendt, John; Brancolini, Giuliano; Childs, Jonathan R.; Escutia, Carlota; Jokat, Wilfried; Kristoffersen, Yngve; Leitchenkov, German; Stagg, Howard; Tanahashi, Manabu; Wardell, Nigel; Webb, Peter

2009-01-01

The Antarctic Offshore Stratigraphy project (ANTOSTRAT; 1989–2002) was an extremely successful collaboration in international marine geological science that also lifted the perceived “veil of secrecy” from studies of potential exploitation of Antarctic marine mineral resources. The project laid the groundwork for circum-Antarctic seismic, drilling, and rock coring programs designed to decipher Antarctica’s tectonic, stratigraphic, and climate histories. In 2002, ANTOSTRAT evolved into the equally successful and currently active Antarctic Climate Evolution research program. The need for, and evolution of, ANTOSTRAT was based on two simple tenets within SCAR and the Antarctic Treaty: international science collaboration and open access to data. The ANTOSTRAT project may be a helpful analog for other regions of strong international science and geopolitical interests, such as the Arctic. This is the ANTOSTRAT story.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

PubMed

García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L

2015-10-15

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crucifix, Michel; Mitsui, Takahito

2015-04-01

Our knowledge of climate dynamics depends on indirect observations of past climate evolution, as well as on what can be inferred from theoretical arguments. At the scale of the Cenozoic, it is common to define a framework of nested time scales, the longest time scale of interest being related to the slow tectonic evolution, then variability associated with or controlled by the astronomical forcing, and finally the fastest dynamics associated with the natural modes of variability of the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, in a model, the astronomical modes of variability may be simulated with deterministic equations under fixed boundary conditions representing the tectonic state, and associated with stochastic parameterisations of the ocean-atmosphere (chaotic) modes of motion. Bifurcations or, more generally, qualitative changes in climate dynamics may be scanned by changing slowly the tectonic state, in order to provide explanations to observed changes in regimes such as the appearance of ice ages and their changes in length or amplitude. The above framework, largely theorized by B. Saltzman, may still be partly justified but is in need of a review. We address here specifically three questions: To what extent astronomical variability interacts with natural modes of ocean - atmosphere variability ? Specifically, how does millennial variability (e.g.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events) fit the Saltzman scheme ? The astronomical forcing is quasi-periodic, and we recently showed that it may produce somewhat counter-intuitive dynamics associated with the emergence of strange non-chaotic attractors. What are the consequences on the spectrum of climate variability ? What are the effects of centennial climate variability on the slow variability of climate ? These three questions are addressed by reference to recently published material, with the objective of emphasising research questions to be explored in the near future.

Formation of Valley Networks in a Cold and Icy Early Mars Climate: Predictions for Erosion Rates and Channel Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassanelli, J.

2017-12-01

Mars is host to a diverse array of valley networks, systems of linear-to-sinuous depressions which are widely distributed across the surface and which exhibit branching patterns similar to the dendritic drainage patterns of terrestrial fluvial systems. Characteristics of the valley networks are indicative of an origin by fluvial activity, providing among the most compelling evidence for the past presence of flowing liquid water on the surface of Mars. Stratigraphic and crater age dating techniques suggest that the formation of the valley networks occurred predominantly during the early geologic history of Mars ( 3.7 Ga). However, whether the valley networks formed predominantly by rainfall in a relatively warm and wet early Mars climate, or by snowmelt and episodic rainfall in an ambient cold and icy climate, remains disputed. Understanding the formative environment of the valley networks will help distinguish between these warm and cold end-member early Mars climate models. Here we test a conceptual model for channel incision and evolution under cold and icy conditions with a substrate characterized by the presence of an ice-free dry active layer and subjacent ice-cemented regolith, similar to that found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. We implement numerical thermal models, quantitative erosion and transport estimates, and morphometric analyses in order to outline predictions for (1) the precise nature and structure of the substrate, (2) fluvial erosion/incision rates, and (3) channel morphology. Model predictions are compared against morphologic and morphometric observational data to evaluate consistency with the assumed cold climate scenario. In the cold climate scenario, the substrate is predicted to be characterized by a kilometers-thick globally-continuous cryosphere below a 50-100 meter thick desiccated ice-free zone. Initial results suggest that, with the predicted substrate structure, fluvial channel erosion and morphology in a cold early Mars climate exposed to episodic high temperatures will not differ significantly from that in a warm climate. The fundamentally different hydrologic conditions are likely to influence other aspects of valley network morphology and morphometry including: drainage density, drainage pattern, and stream orders.