Sample records for climate experimental study
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A survey of urban climate change experiments in 100 cities
Castán Broto, Vanesa; Bulkeley, Harriet
2013-01-01
Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world. The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities. The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city. PMID:23805029
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Laurie Yung; Mason Bradbury; Daniel R. Williams
2012-01-01
In this project, we examined the views of 21 long-term employees on climate change in 14 Rocky Mountain Research Station Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs). EFRs were described by employees as uniquely positioned to advance knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies due to the research integrity they provide for long-term studies, the ability to...
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Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.
Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula
2013-06-01
Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation an...
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Arfin-Khan, M A S; Vetter, V M S; Reshi, Z A; Dar, P A; Jentsch, A
2018-05-01
Successful germination and seedling emergence in new environments are crucial first steps in the life history of global plant invaders and thus play a key role in processes of range expansion. We examined the germination and seedling emergence success of three global plant invaders - Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens and Verbascum thapsus - in greenhouses and climate chambers under climate regimes corresponding to seven eco-regions. Seed materials were collected from one non-native population for L. polyphyllus and S. inaequidens, and from 12 populations for V. thapsus (six natives and six non-natives). Experimental climates had significant effects on species responses. No species germinated in the dry (humidity ≤ 50%) and cool (≤ 5 °C) experimental climates. But all species germinated and emerged in two moderately cool (12-19 °C) and in three warm (24-27 °C) experimental climates. In general, V. thapsus showed higher fitness than S. inaequidens and L. polyphyllus. The climate of the seed source region influenced responses of native and non-native populations of V. thapsus. Non-native populations of V. thapsus, originating from the warmer seed source, showed higher performance in warm experimental climates and lower performance in moderately cool experimental climates compared to native populations. Responses of V. thapsus populations were also related to precipitation of the seed source region in moderately dry experimental climates. The warm, semi-arid and humid experimental climates are suitable for the crucial first steps of invasion success for L. polyphyllus, S. inaequidens and V. thapsus. The species adaptation to its source region modified the responses of our studied plants under different experimental climates representing major eco-regions of the world. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.
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Dingfang Chen; Mei Yu; Grizelle González; Xiaoming Zou; Qiong Gao
2017-01-01
Tropical forests play an important role in regulating the global climate and the carbon cycle. With the changing temperature and moisture along the elevation gradient, the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Northeastern Puerto Rico provides a natural approach to understand tropical forest ecosystems under climate change. In this study, we conducted a soil translocation...
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Pliocene Model Intercomparison (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.; Hunter, S. J.; Lunt, D. J.; Pound, M.;
2015-01-01
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved in geological climate archives. This paper provides a thorough model intercomparison project description, and documents the experimental design in a detailed way. Specifically, this paper describes the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for the experiments in Phase 2 of PlioMIP.
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Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.
Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien
2015-10-01
Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.
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Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change
Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien
2015-01-01
Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958
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A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability
Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.
2013-01-01
We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722
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Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea.
Munday, Philip L; Warner, Robert R; Monro, Keyne; Pandolfi, John M; Marshall, Dustin J
2013-12-01
An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
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We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site...
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Cascabel prescribed fire long-term watershed study: an opportunity to monitor climate change
Gerald Gottfried; Daniel Neary; Peter Ffolliott; Karen Koestner
2012-01-01
Experimental watershed studies can provide answers to new challenges facing land managers and society including the impacts of fires and climate change on upstream and regional hydrology. The Cascabel Watersheds long-term prescribed fire study provides a unique opportunity to monitor climate change because of its location in an oak savanna situated between deserts or...
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Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang
2016-08-01
The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.
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Harte, John; Saleska, Scott R; Levy, Charlotte
2015-06-01
Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow-moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long-term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long-term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Climate variability and plant response at the Santa Rita Experimental Range, Arizona
Michael A. Crimmins; Theresa M. Mau-Crimmins
2003-01-01
Climatic variability is reflected in differential establishment, persistence, and spread of plant species. Although studies have investigated these relationships for some species and functional groups, few have attempted to characterize the specific sequences of climatic conditions at various temporal scales (subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual) associated with...
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Classroom Management and Students' Perceptions of Classroom Climate
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ratzburg, Susan A.
2010-01-01
The impact of classroom management and the impact of classroom climate on student academic achievement has been independently documented by scholars. Less is currently know regarding the relationship linking classroom management and climate. Therefore, the purpose of this quasi experimental study was to explore the influence of classroom…
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Effect of Integrated Feedback on Classroom Climate of Secondary School Teachers
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Patel, Nilesh Kumar
2018-01-01
This study aimed at finding out the effect of Integrated feedback on Classroom climate of secondary school teachers. This research is experimental in nature. Non-equivalent control group design suggested by Stanley and Campbell (1963) was used for the experiment. Integrated feedback was treatment and independent variable, Classroom climate was…
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Mundim, Fabiane M; Bruna, Emilio M
2016-09-01
Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.
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Final Report: Closeout of the Award NO. DE-FG02-98ER62618 (M.S. Fox-Rabinovitz, P.I.)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S.
The final report describes the study aimed at exploring the variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) approach to decadal regional climate modeling using advanced numerical techniques. The obtained results have shown that variable-resolution SG-GCMs using stretched grids with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable established approach to regional climate modeling. The developed SG-GCMs have been extensively used for regional climate experimentation. The SG-GCM simulations are aimed at studying the U.S. regional climate variability with an emphasis on studying anomalous summer climate events, the U.S. droughts and floods.
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Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.
Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D
2015-11-01
Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Katharine Hayhoe
2011-01-01
Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing...
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Wu, Yu-Chi; Tsai, Ping Ju
2012-10-01
This study investigated how paternalistic leadership is linked to ethical climates based on a multidimensional construct perspective. This experimental study utilized the partial least squares (PLS) techniques to analyze the data. Participants were 258 civil servants working in various public sectors in Taiwan, who were asked to rate their leaders' paternalistic leadership behaviors and their perception of the ethical climates in their organizations using the Paternalistic Leadership Scale and the Ethical Climate Questionnaire. Using the unidimensional constructs of paternalistic leadership and ethical climates, prior research showed vidence of a positive relationship; however, in the current study, multidimensional relations among these constructs may be positive or negative. The findings of this study suggested that leaders may implement specific types of paternalistic leadership to enhance the intended ethical climate in their organizations.
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Climate of Priest River Experimental Forest, northern Idaho
Arnold I. Finklin
1983-01-01
Detailed climatic description of Priest River Experimental Forest; applies to much of the northern Idaho panhandle. Covers year-round pattern and focuses on the fire season. Topographic and local site differences in climate are examined; also, climatic trends or fluctuations during the past 70 years. Includes numerous tables and graphs. Written particularly for forest...
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Yuan, Z Y; Jiao, F; Shi, X R; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep
2017-06-01
Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling.
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Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A
2012-02-01
Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
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Climate Variability and Its Impact on Forest Hydrology on South Carolina Coastal Plain, USA
Zhaohua Dai; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun; Carl Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li
2011-01-01
Understanding the changes in hydrology of coastal forested wetlands induced by climate change is fundamental for developing strategies to sustain their functions and services. This study examined 60 years of climatic observations and 30 years of hydrological data, collected at the Santee Experimental Forest (SEF) in coastal South Carolina. We also applied a physically-...
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Remediating Misconception on Climate Change among Secondary School Students in Malaysia
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Chandrakesan, Kasturi
2015-01-01
Existing studies report on secondary school students' misconceptions related to climate change; they also report on the methods of teaching as reinforcing misconceptions. This quasi-experimental study was designed to test the null hypothesis that a curriculum based on constructivist principles does not lead to greater understanding and fewer…
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Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn
2015-01-13
Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.
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Russell, Bayden D.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Connell, Sean D.
2012-01-01
Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317
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Aquino, Karl; Tripp, Thomas M; Bies, Robert J
2006-05-01
A field study and an experimental study examined relationships among organizational variables and various responses of victims to perceived wrongdoing. Both studies showed that procedural justice climate moderates the effect of organizational variables on the victim's revenge, forgiveness, reconciliation, or avoidance behaviors. In Study 1, a field study, absolute hierarchical status enhanced forgiveness and reconciliation, but only when perceptions of procedural justice climate were high; relative hierarchical status increased revenge, but only when perceptions of procedural justice climate were low. In Study 2, a laboratory experiment, victims were less likely to endorse vengeance or avoidance depending on the type of wrongdoing, but only when perceptions of procedural justice climate were high.
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Yuan, ZY; Jiao, F; Shi, XR; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep
2017-01-01
Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23255.001 PMID:28570219
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM ...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krassovski, M.; Hanson, P. J.; Riggs, J. S.; Nettles, W. R., IV
2017-12-01
Climate change studies are one of the most important aspects of modern science and related experiments are getting bigger and more complex. One such experiment is the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE, http://mnspruce.ornl.gov) conducted in in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). The SPRUCE experimental mission is to assess ecosystem-level biological responses of vulnerable, high carbon terrestrial ecosystems to a range of climate warming manipulations and an elevated CO2 atmosphere. This manipulation experiment generates a lot of observational data and requires a reliable onsite data collection system, dependable methods to transfer data to a robust scientific facility, and real-time monitoring capabilities. This presentation shares our experience of establishing near real time/low latency data collection and monitoring system using satellite communication.
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Peter M. Groffman; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; John Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Nina K. Lany; Anne M. Socci; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Paul Schaberg; Geoffrey F. Wilson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Christine L. Goodale; Mark B. Green; Steven P. Hamburg; Chris E. Johnson; Myron J. Mitchell; Jennifer L. Morse; Linda H. Pardo; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse
2012-01-01
Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects...
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The Effects of School-Wide Positive Behavior Support on Middle School Climate and Student Outcomes
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Caldarella, Paul; Shatzer, Ryan H.; Gray, Kristy M.; Young, K. Richard; Young, Ellie L.
2011-01-01
This study investigated the effects of school-wide positive behavior support (SWPBS) on middle school climate and student outcomes. Data consisted of more than 300 teacher responses and 10,000 student responses in two middle schools in the western United States. This study used a quasi-experimental (non-equivalent two-group, pretest-posttest)…
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Genetics of climate change adaptation.
Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A
2012-01-01
The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.
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Fourth National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and Climate Program Science Review
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kreins, E. R. (Editor)
1979-01-01
The NASA Weather and Climate Program has two major thrusts. The first involves the development of experimental and prototype operational satellite systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring and understanding the atmosphere. The second thrust involves basic scientific investigation aimed at studying the physical and chemical processes which control weather and climate. This fourth science review concentrated on the scientific research rather than the hardware development aspect of the program. These proceedings contain 65 papers covering the three general areas: severe storms and local weather research, global weather, and climate.
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A.D. McGuire; R.W. Ruess; A. Lloyd; J. Yarie; J.S. Clein; G.P. Juday
2010-01-01
This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth...
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The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0)contribution to CMIP6
Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; ...
2016-10-18
Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of futuremore » climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.« less
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The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; Hegerl, Gabriele; Knutti, Reto; Matthes, Katja; Santer, Benjamin D.; Stone, Daithi; Tebaldi, Claudia
2016-10-01
Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.
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Wilson, Hannah; Johnson, Bart R; Bohannan, Brendan; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Mueller, Rebecca; Bridgham, Scott D
2016-01-01
Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.
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[Study on eco-climatic applicability of Angelica sinensis].
Deng, Zhen-Yong; Yin, Xian-Zhi; Yin, Dong; Yang, Qi-Guo; Zhu, Guo-Qing; Liu, Ming-Chun
2005-06-01
In the interest of establish planting base of Angelica sinensis on a large scale, enhance economic benefit, and improve decision-making reasons, the eco-climatic applicability of A. sinensis was studied. Using integral regression, eco-climatic applicability and the effect of meteorological conditions for the yield of A. sinensis' were analysed by field experimental data. Selected > or =0 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual precipitation as leading index, altitude as assistant index, yield and rate of finished products as reference index, the integrated eco-climatic division index and the planting division applicability of A. sinensis was confirmed. Accordancing to theory of climate similitude and leading index summarisation, combining with assistant index and reference index, the integrated division index of eco-climate was confirmed. The planting division of co-climate applicability was divided into 5 grades as best suitable, suitable hypo-suitable, just suitable and no suitable regions. At the same time,the way to enhanced utilizing efficiency of eco-climate resources was brought forward.
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How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?
HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harsch, Melanie A; Ettinger, Ailene K; Ford, Kevin R; Theobald, Elinore J
2013-09-01
Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Glisson, Charles; Dukes, Denzel; Green, Philip
2006-01-01
Objective: This study examines the effects of the Availability, Responsiveness, and Continuity (ARC) organizational intervention strategy on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in a child welfare and juvenile justice system. Method: Using a pre-post, randomized blocks, true experimental design, 10 urban and 16 rural case management teams…
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Local adaptation to temperature conserves top-down control in a grassland food web.
Barton, Brandon T
2011-10-22
A fundamental limitation in many climate change experiments is that tests represent relatively short-term 'shock' experiments and so do not incorporate the phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change that may occur during the gradual process of climate change. However, capturing this aspect of climate change effects in an experimental design is a difficult challenge that few studies have accomplished. I examined the effect of temperature and predator climate history in food webs composed of herbaceous plants, generalist grasshopper herbivores and spider predators across a natural 4.8°C temperature gradient spanning 500 km in northeastern USA. In these grasslands, the effects of rising temperatures on the plant community are indirect and arise via altered predator-herbivore interactions. Experimental warming had no direct effect on grasshoppers, but reduced predation risk effects by causing spiders from all study sites to seek thermal refuge lower in the plant canopy. However, spider thermal tolerance corresponded to spider origin such that spiders from warmer study sites tolerated higher temperatures than spiders from cooler study sites. As a consequence, the magnitude of the indirect effect of spiders on plants did not differ along the temperature gradient, although a reciprocal transplant experiment revealed significantly different effects of spider origin on the magnitude of top-down control. These results suggest that variation in predator response to warming may maintain species interactions and associated food web processes when faced with long term, chronic climate warming.
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Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.
Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S
2018-02-01
Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Irena F. Creed; Adam T. Spargo; Julia A. Jones; Jim M. Buttle; Mary B. Adams; Fred D. Beall; Eric G. Booth; John L. Campbell; Dave Clow; Kelly Elder; Mark B. Green; Nancy B. Grimm; Chelcy Miniat; Patricia Ramlal; Amartya Saha; Stephen Sebestyen; Dave Spittlehouse; Shannon Sterling; Mark W. Williams; Rita Winkler; Huaxia Yao
2014-01-01
Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary.We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm...
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Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.
Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John
2018-02-01
Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.
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Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation
Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John
2018-01-01
Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mazer, Joseph P.; Murphy, Richard E.; Simonds, Cheri J.
2007-01-01
This experimental study examined the effects of teacher self-disclosure via Facebook on anticipated college student motivation, affective learning, and classroom climate. Participants who accessed the Facebook website of a teacher high in self-disclosure anticipated higher levels of motivation and affective learning and a more positive classroom…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bitar, Maysa H.
2012-01-01
This non-experimental quantitative study followed a correlational design that examined the relationship between five factors of school climate: a) leadership, b) professional development, c) salary, d) working condition, and e) teacher collaboration as measured by the modified version of Teacher's Perception of Factors Leading to Attrition (TPFLA)…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Southcombe, Amie; Fulop, Liz; Carter, Geoff; Cavanagh, Jillian
2015-01-01
The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between learning climate congruence and the affective commitment of university academics. The strategy of inquiry for this research is quantitative, involving a non-experimental design for the survey research. A non-probability sample of 900 academics from a large Australian university was…
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Ant-mediated seed dispersal in a warmed world
Patterson, Courtney M.; Rodriguez-Cabal, Mariano A.; Ribbons, Relena R.; Dunn, Robert R.; Sanders, Nathan J.
2014-01-01
Climate change affects communities both directly and indirectly via changes in interspecific interactions. One such interaction that may be altered under climate change is the ant-plant seed dispersal mutualism common in deciduous forests of eastern North America. As climatic warming alters the abundance and activity levels of ants, the potential exists for shifts in rates of ant-mediated seed dispersal. We used an experimental temperature manipulation at two sites in the eastern US (Harvard Forest in Massachusetts and Duke Forest in North Carolina) to examine the potential impacts of climatic warming on overall rates of seed dispersal (using Asarum canadense seeds) as well as species-specific rates of seed dispersal at the Duke Forest site. We also examined the relationship between ant critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and the mean seed removal temperature for each ant species. We found that seed removal rates did not change as a result of experimental warming at either study site, nor were there any changes in species-specific rates of seed dispersal. There was, however, a positive relationship between CTmax and mean seed removal temperature, whereby species with higher CTmax removed more seeds at hotter temperatures. The temperature at which seeds were removed was influenced by experimental warming as well as diurnal and day-to-day fluctuations in temperature. Taken together, our results suggest that while temperature may play a role in regulating seed removal by ants, ant plant seed-dispersal mutualisms may be more robust to climate change than currently assumed. PMID:24688863
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Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions
Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.
2012-01-01
The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant–animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.
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Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.
2012-03-01
The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant-animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.
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Correlation studies on nitrogen for sunflower crop across the agroclimatic variability.
Nasim, Wajid; Belhouchette, Hatem; Tariq, Muhammad; Fahad, Shah; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Mubeen, Muhammad; Munis, Muhammad Farooq Hussain; Chaudhary, Hassan Javed; Khan, Imran; Mahmood, Faisal; Abbas, Tauqeer; Rasul, Fahd; Nadeem, Muhammad; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Ullah, Najeeb; Alghabari, Fahad; Saud, Shah; Mubarak, Hussani; Ahmad, Rafiq
2016-02-01
Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is an important yield limiting factor for sunflower production. The correlation between yield components and growth parameters of three sunflower hybrids (Hysun-33, Hysun-38, Pioneer-64A93) were studied with five N rates (0, 60, 120, 180, 240 kg ha(-1)) at three different experimental sites during the two consecutive growing seasons 2008 and 2009. The results revealed that total dry matter (TDM) production and grain yield were positively and linearly associated with leaf area index (LAI), leaf area duration (LAD), and crop growth rate (CGR) at all three sites of the experiments. The significant association of yield with growth components indicated that the humid climate was most suitable for sunflower production. Furthermore, the association of these components can be successfully used to predict the grain yield under diverse climatic conditions. The application of N at increased rate of 180 kg ha(-1) resulted in maximum yield as compared to standard rate (120 kg ha(-1)) at all the experimental sites. In this way, N application rate was significantly correlated with growth and development of sunflower under a variety of climatic conditions. Keeping in view such relationship, the N dose can be optimized for sunflower crop in a particular region to maximize the productivity. Multilocation trails help to predict the input rates precisely while taking climatic variations into account also. In the long run, results of this study provides basis for sustainable sunflower production under changing climate.
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Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations
Gao, Xu; Jin, Changnan; Camargo, Arley
2015-01-01
Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. low) on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus). We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming. PMID:26500832
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Smith, Kasee L.; Rayfield, John
2017-01-01
Understanding methods for effectively instructing STEM education concepts is essential in the current climate of education (Freeman, Marginson, & Tyler 2014). Kolb's experiential learning theory (ELT) outlines four specific modes of learning, based on preferences for grasping and transforming information. This quasi-experimental study was…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krassovski, Misha; Hanson, Paul; Riggs, Jeff
2017-04-01
Climate change studies are one of the most important aspects of modern science and related experiments are getting bigger and more complex. One such experiment is the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE, http://mnspruce.ornl.gov) conducted in in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). The SPRUCE experimental mission is to assess ecosystem-level biological responses of vulnerable, high carbon terrestrial ecosystems to a range of climate warming manipulations and an elevated CO2 atmosphere. This manipulation experiment generates a lot of observational data and requires a reliable onsite data collection system, dependable methods to transfer data to a robust scientific facility, and real-time monitoring capabilities. This publication shares our experience of establishing near real time data collection and monitoring system via a satellite link using PakBus protocol.
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Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change effects on water resources
James M. Vose; Chelcy R. Ford; Stephanie Laseter; Salli Dymond; Ge Sun; Mary Beth Adams; Stephen Sebestyen; John Campbell; Charlie Luce; Devendra Amatya; Kelly Elder; Tamara Heartsill Scalley
2012-01-01
Long-term hydrology and climate data from United States Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFR) provide critical information on the interactions among climate, streamflow, and forest management practices. We examined the relationships among streamflow responses to climate variation and forest management using long-term data. Analysis of climate data from a...
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Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change impacts on water resources?
James M. Vose; Chelcy R. Ford; Stephanie Laseter; Salli Dymond; GE Sun; Mary Beth Adams; Stephen Sebestyen; John Campbell; Charles Luce; Devendra Amatya; Kelly Elder; Tamara. Heartsill-Scalley
2012-01-01
Long-term hydrology and climate data from United States Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFR) provide critical information on the interactions among climate, streamflow, and forest management practices. We examined the relationships among streamflow responses to climate variation and forest management using long-term data. Analysis of climate data from a...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich
2016-03-01
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew;
2016-01-01
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.
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ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei
2018-06-01
The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.
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Experimental evidence for beneficial effects of projected climate change on hibernating amphibians.
Üveges, Bálint; Mahr, Katharina; Szederkényi, Márk; Bókony, Veronika; Hoi, Herbert; Hettyey, Attila
2016-05-27
Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates today, experiencing worldwide declines. In recent years considerable effort was invested in exposing the causes of these declines. Climate change has been identified as such a cause; however, the expectable effects of predicted milder, shorter winters on hibernation success of temperate-zone Amphibians have remained controversial, mainly due to a lack of controlled experimental studies. Here we present a laboratory experiment, testing the effects of simulated climate change on hibernating juvenile common toads (Bufo bufo). We simulated hibernation conditions by exposing toadlets to current (1.5 °C) or elevated (4.5 °C) hibernation temperatures in combination with current (91 days) or shortened (61 days) hibernation length. We found that a shorter winter and milder hibernation temperature increased survival of toads during hibernation. Furthermore, the increase in temperature and shortening of the cold period had a synergistic positive effect on body mass change during hibernation. Consequently, while climate change may pose severe challenges for amphibians of the temperate zone during their activity period, the negative effects may be dampened by shorter and milder winters experienced during hibernation.
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Xue, Xian; Peng, Fei; You, Quangang; Xu, Manhou; Dong, Siyang
2015-09-01
Recent studies found that the largest uncertainties in the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change might come from changes in soil moisture under the elevation of temperature. Warming-induced change in soil moisture and its level of influence on terrestrial ecosystems are mostly determined by climate, soil, and vegetation type and their sensitivity to temperature and moisture. Here, we present the results from a warming experiment of an alpine ecosystem conducted in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using infrared heaters. Our results show that 3 years of warming treatments significantly elevated soil temperature at 0-100 cm depth, decreased soil moisture at 10 cm depth, and increased soil moisture at 40-100 cm depth. In contrast to the findings of previous research, experimental warming did not significantly affect NH 4 (+)-N, NO 3 (-)-N, and heterotrophic respiration, but stimulated the growth of plants and significantly increased root biomass at 30-50 cm depth. This led to increased soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, and liable carbon at 30-50 cm depth, and increased autotrophic respiration of plants. Analysis shows that experimental warming influenced deeper root production via redistributed soil moisture, which favors the accumulation of belowground carbon, but did not significantly affected the decomposition of soil organic carbon. Our findings suggest that future climate change studies need to take greater consideration of changes in the hydrological cycle and the local ecosystem characteristics. The results of our study will aid in understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and provide the regional case for global ecosystem models.
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Responses of lichen communities to 18 years of natural and experimental warming.
Alatalo, Juha M; Jägerbrand, Annika K; Chen, Shengbin; Molau, Ulf
2017-07-01
Climate change is expected to have major impacts on high alpine and arctic ecosystems in the future, but empirical data on the impact of long-term warming on lichen diversity and richness are sparse. This study report the effects of 18 years of ambient and experimental warming on lichens and vascular plant cover in two alpine plant communities, a dry heath with sparse canopy cover (54 %) and a mesic meadow with a more developed (67 %) canopy cover, in sub-arctic Sweden. The effects of long-term passive experimental warming using open top chambers (OTCs) on lichens and total vascular plant cover, and the impact of plant cover on lichen community parameters, were analysed. Between 1993 and 2013, mean annual temperature increased about 2 °C. Both site and experimental warming had a significant effect on cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness of lichens, and total plant canopy cover. Lichen cover increased in the heath under ambient conditions, and remained more stable under experimental warming. The negative effect on species richness and effective number of species was driven by a decrease in lichens under experimental warming in the meadow. Lichen cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness were negatively correlated with plant canopy cover. There was a significant negative impact on one species and a non-significant tendency of lower abundance of the most common species in response to experimental warming. The results from the long-term warming study imply that arctic and high alpine lichen communities are likely to be negatively affected by climate change and an increase in plant canopy cover. Both biotic and abiotic factors are thus important for future impacts of climate change on lichens. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
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Hänel, Sabine; Tielbörger, Katja
2015-04-01
Many species will need to adapt to the observed climate change in order to persist. However, research about adaptation or phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change is rare. In particular, field studies are lacking that impose artificial selection for a sufficiently long time to elicit changes in phenotypic and genotypic structure of populations. Here, we present findings for an 8-year field experiment with 16 annual plant species that tested potentially adaptive phenotypic responses to precipitation change. In both a Mediterranean and a semi-arid site, annual precipitation was manipulated (±30%) and phenotypic response was recorded. We measured flowering time as a key trait related to climatic conditions and biomass and survival as fitness correlates. Differences in traits among treatments were compared to trait shifts between sites, according to space-for-time approaches. In the drier site, phenology was accelerated, but within that site, experimental drought delayed phenology, probably as a plastic response to delayed ontogenetic development. Biomass was smaller in the dry treatments of that site, but it was also reduced in irrigated plots in both sites, indicating more intense competition. The shifts from limitation by drought to limitation by competition corresponded to patterns along the gradient. This also implies a larger negative impact of climate change in the drier site. Our results suggest that experimental selection in the field caused directional responses in most species, but these were not necessarily adaptive. Furthermore, competitive release imposed by climate change may revert direct negative effects of rainfall change in determining plant performance.
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Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A
2018-04-01
Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wangdi, Norbu; Ahmed, Iftekhar; Zangmo, Norbu; Gratzer, Georg; Jandl, Robert; Schindlbacher, Andreas
2017-04-01
Extreme climatic events leading to severe disturbances in ecosystems are expected to increase globally. Such events carry strong potentials for severe reductions or whole losses of ecosystem services. This is particularly true for the Himalayas: they are located in a region forming a tipping element in the Earth's climate system. At a millennial time scale, complete breakdowns of the summer monsoon circulation and a resulting failure of the Indian summer monsoon rains have occurred several times during the last 1000 years. Climate change potentially increases the frequency of such monsoon failures and related mega-droughts. Given the significance of the region, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on forest ecosystem C dynamics is strikingly limited. While the effects of droughts are studied experimentally in Europe and North America, no precipitation manipulation experiments have been carried out in the Himalayas yet. We make use of natural forests with coexisting conifer and broadleaf as well as deciduous and evergreen species at slopes of stark environmental gradients for conducting a replicated large-scale five year throughfall exclosure experiment. We study drought response at individual tree and ecosystem levels. We present the effects of the experimental drought on the ecosystem carbon balance, integrating above- and belowground pools and fluxes such as heterotrophic and autotrophic soil respiration, litter fall and root turnover as well as above- and belowground tree growth. A preliminary assessment indicates that soil microbes were primarily affected during the first three years of simulated drought, whereas trees altered allocation patterns but survived the experimental drought. A detailed analysis will be presented at the conference.
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Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.
Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert
2016-11-29
The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.
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Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming
Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert
2016-01-01
The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.
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Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming
Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert
2016-01-01
The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming. PMID:27849609
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The C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stone, D. A.; Angélil, O. M.; Cholia, S.; Christidis, N.; Dittus, A. J.; Folland, C. K.; King, A.; Kinter, J. L.; Krishnan, H.; Min, S. K.; Shiogama, H.; Wehner, M. F.; Wolski, P.
2015-12-01
Over the past decade there has been a remarkable growth in interest concerning the effects of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather. However, research has been constrained by the lack of a public climate-model-based data product optimised for investigation of extreme weather in the context of climate change, relying instead on products designed for other purposes or on bespoke simulations designed for the particular study and not generally applicable to other extremes. The international Climate of the 20th Century Plus (C20C+) Detection and Attribution Project is filling this gap by producing the first large ensemble, multi-model, multi-year, and multi-scenario historical climate data product, specifically designed for resolving variations in the occurrence and characteristics of extreme weather from year to year and their differences from what might have been in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. Updates on project status and tens of terabytes of simulation output are available at http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c.Here we describe the experimental design of the first phase of the project, conducted with six atmospheric climate models, and discuss its various strengths and weaknesses with respect to various types of extreme weather. We also present analyses of the relative importance of climate model, estimate of anthropogenic ocean warming, spatial and temporal scale, and aspects of experimental design on estimates of how much emissions have affected extreme weather.
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Robert L. Fleming; Robert F. Powers; Neil W. Foster; J. Marty Kranabetter; D. Andrew Scott; Felix Jr. Ponder; Shannon Berch; William K. Chapman; Richard D. Kabzems; Kim H. Ludovici; David M. Morris; Deborah S. Page-Dumroese; Paul T. Sanborn; Felipe G. Sanchez; Douglas M. Stone; Allan E. Tiarks
2006-01-01
We examined fifth-year seedling response to soil disturbance and vegetation control at 42 experimental locations representing 25 replicated studies within the North American Long-Term Soil Productivity (LTSP) program. These studies share a common experimental design while encompassing a wide range of climate, site conditions, and forest types. Whole-tree harvest had...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.
2017-12-01
Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.
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Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol
2018-03-01
Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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McGuire, A. David; Ruess, Roger W.; Lloyd, A.; Yarie, J.; Clein, Joy S.; Juday, G.P.
2010-01-01
This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth throughout interior Alaska that have become more prevalent during the 20th century. Similarly, demographic studies show that white spruce tree growth is substantially limited by soil moisture availability in both mid- and late-successional stands. Interannual variability in tree growth among stands within a landscape exhibits greater synchrony than does growth of trees that occupy different landscapes, which agrees with dendrochronological findings that the responses depend on landscape position and prevailing climate. In contrast, the results from 18 years of a summer moisture limitation experiment showed that growth in midsuccessional upland stands was unaffected by moisture limitation and that moisture limitation decreased white spruce growth in floodplain stands where it was expected that growth would be less vulnerable because of tree access to river water. Taken together, the evidence from the different perspectives analyzed in this study clearly indicates that white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska is vulnerable to the effects of warming on plant water balance.
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Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf
2016-01-01
Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity PMID:26888225
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Climate, snowpack, and streamflow of Priest River Experimental Forest, revisited
Wade T. Tinkham; Robert Denner; Russell T. Graham
2015-01-01
The climate record of Priest River Experimental Forest has the potential to provide a century-long history of northern Rocky Mountain forest ecosystems. The record, which began in 1911 with the Benton Flat Nursery control weather station, included observations of temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind. Later, other observations stations were added to the...
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
To assess one likely effect of global warming, we experimentally increased the temperature and precipitation of a coleopteran community (mainly Carabidae) of an agro-ecosystem. We simulated climate change on a field of spring wheat by experimentally increasing the temperature by 2°C using infrared h...
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Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan
2010-11-01
Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.
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DEVELOPMENT OF COLD CLIMATE HEAT PUMP USING TWO-STAGE COMPRESSION
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shen, Bo; Rice, C Keith; Abdelaziz, Omar
2015-01-01
This paper uses a well-regarded, hardware based heat pump system model to investigate a two-stage economizing cycle for cold climate heat pump applications. The two-stage compression cycle has two variable-speed compressors. The high stage compressor was modelled using a compressor map, and the low stage compressor was experimentally studied using calorimeter testing. A single-stage heat pump system was modelled as the baseline. The system performance predictions are compared between the two-stage and single-stage systems. Special considerations for designing a cold climate heat pump are addressed at both the system and component levels.
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The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: experimental evidence.
van der Linden, Sander L; Leiserowitz, Anthony A; Feinberg, Geoffrey D; Maibach, Edward W
2015-01-01
There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.
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The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence
van der Linden, Sander L.; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.; Feinberg, Geoffrey D.; Maibach, Edward W.
2015-01-01
There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change. PMID:25714347
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Anagnostou, Eleni; Baatsen, Michiel L. J.; Caballero, Rodrigo; DeConto, Rob; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Donnadieu, Yannick; Evans, David; Feng, Ran;
2017-01-01
Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
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Giménez-Benavides, L; Escudero, A; García-Camacho, R; García-Fernández, A; Iriondo, J M; Lara-Romero, C; Morente-López, J
2018-01-01
Mediterranean mountains are extraordinarily diverse and hold a high proportion of endemic plants, but they are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and most species distribution models project drastic changes in community composition. Retrospective studies and long-term monitoring also highlight that Mediterranean high-mountain plants are suffering severe range contractions. The aim of this work is to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on the process of plant regeneration by seed in Mediterranean high-mountain plants, by combining available information from observational and experimental studies. We also discuss some processes that may provide resilience against changing environmental conditions and suggest some research priorities for the future. With some exceptions, there is still little evidence of the direct effects of climate change on pollination and reproductive success of Mediterranean high-mountain plants, and most works are observational and/or centred only in the post-dispersal stages (germination and establishment). The great majority of studies agree that the characteristic summer drought and the extreme heatwaves, which are projected to be more intense in the future, are the most limiting factors for the regeneration process. However, there is an urgent need for studies combining elevational gradient approaches with experimental manipulations of temperature and drought to confirm the magnitude and variability of species' responses. There is also limited knowledge about the ability of Mediterranean high-mountain plants to cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. This could be achieved by performing common garden and reciprocal translocation experiments with species differing in life history traits. © 2017 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.
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Revisiting Pearson's climate and forest type studies on the Fort Valley Experimental Forest
Joseph E. Crouse; Margaret M. Moore; Peter Fule
2008-01-01
Five weather station sites were established in 1916 by Fort Valley personnel along an elevational gradient from the Experimental Station to near the top of the San Francisco Peaks to investigate the factors that controlled and limited forest types. The stations were located in the ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, limber pine, Engelmann spruce, and Engelmann spruce/...
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Michael E. Day; Michael S. Greenwood; Katherine Spencer; Stephanie L. Adams
2014-01-01
Multi-cohort stands maintained by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service on the Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF) have played a central role in research into the mechanisms that regulate ontogenetic trends in forest conifers as they control effects due to population, climatic, and edaphic factors. These long-term silvicultural studies have permitted...
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Revisiting Pearson's climate and forest type studies on the Fort Valley Experimental Forest (P-53)
Joseph E. Crouse; Margaret M. Moore; Peter Z. Fule
2008-01-01
Five weather station sites were established in 1916 by Fort Valley personnel along an elevational gradient from the Experimental Station to near the top of the San Francisco Peaks to investigate the factors that controlled and limited forest types. The stations were located in the ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, limber pine, Engelmann spruce, and Engelmann spruce/...
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The San Dimas experimental forest: 50 years of research
Paul H. Dunn; Susan C. Barro; Wade G. Wells; Mark A Poth; Peter M. Wohlgemuth; Charles G. Colver
1988-01-01
The San Dimas Experimental Forest serves as a field laboratory for studies of chaparral and related ecosystems, and has been recognized by national and international organizations. It covers 6,945 ha (17,153 acres) in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains northeast of Los Angeles, and has a typical Mediterranean-type climate. The Forest encompasses the San Dimas...
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Jacquelyn M. Rowe; William B. Perry; Sue A. Perry
1996-01-01
Climate change has the potential to alter detrital processing in headwater streams, which receive the majority of their nutrient input as terrestrial leaf litter. Early placement of experimental leaf packs in streams, one month prior to most abscission, was used as an experimental manipulation to increase stream temperature during leaf pack breakdown. We studied leaf...
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Changing Peer Perceptions and Victimization through Classroom Arrangements: A Field Experiment
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
van den Berg, Yvonne H. M.; Segers, Eliane; Cillessen, Antonius H. N.
2012-01-01
The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of an experimental manipulation of distance between classmates on peer affiliations and classroom climate. Participants were 651 10-to-12 year-old children (48% boys) from 27 Grade 5 and Grade 6 classrooms of 23 schools, who were assigned to an experimental or a control condition. Peer…
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Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J
2018-05-09
Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Experimental climate information services in support of risk management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.
2009-12-01
Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or predictions but information on potential “futures” derived from past records, expert judgments, scenarios, and availability of mechanisms and capacity to use such information. Effective experimental climate services facilitate ongoing appraisals of knowledge needs for informing adaptation and mitigation options across sectors and across scenarios of near and longer-term future climates. Analyses show that climate service experiments drawing on data, applied research and prototyping functions of activities such as RISAs and RCCs are critical to developing the learning needed to inform and structure the flow of knowledge and understanding from problem definition and applications research to information delivery, use and evaluation. These activities effectively serve to inform services implementation when overarching cross-agency coordination, knowledge management, and innovation diffusion mechanisms such as afforded by NIDIS and the Coastal Services Center are engaged. We also demonstrate the importance of positioning climate research to engage and inform the decision-making process as society anticipates and responds to climate and its impacts.
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Complex networks as a unified framework for descriptive analysis and predictive modeling in climate
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Chawla, Nitesh; Ganguly, Auroop R
The analysis of climate data has relied heavily on hypothesis-driven statistical methods, while projections of future climate are based primarily on physics-based computational models. However, in recent years a wealth of new datasets has become available. Therefore, we take a more data-centric approach and propose a unified framework for studying climate, with an aim towards characterizing observed phenomena as well as discovering new knowledge in the climate domain. Specifically, we posit that complex networks are well-suited for both descriptive analysis and predictive modeling tasks. We show that the structural properties of climate networks have useful interpretation within the domain. Further,more » we extract clusters from these networks and demonstrate their predictive power as climate indices. Our experimental results establish that the network clusters are statistically significantly better predictors than clusters derived using a more traditional clustering approach. Using complex networks as data representation thus enables the unique opportunity for descriptive and predictive modeling to inform each other.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Bopp, Laurent; Brovkin, Victor; Dunne, John; Graven, Heather; Hoffman, Forrest; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Jung, Martin; Kawamiya, Michio; Koven, Charlie; Pongratz, Julia; Raddatz, Thomas; Randerson, James T.; Zaehle, Sönke
2016-08-01
Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sebastia, M. T.; Verdú, N.
2016-12-01
Although climate change is one of the most pressing challenges faced by humankind, climate change illiteracy is frequent among primary school teacher college students reaching the second school year at the University of Lleida (UdL). Climate change was chosen to structure the course on Experimental Sciences of the bilingual group because this topic involves all sciences, and because of the importance of the subject for future educators. In the bilingual group of the Education Faculty, Experimental Sciences is taught in English, and there are usually 1-2 international students in addition to around 20 local students. To increase the awareness about climate change and make this topic closer to the students' daily experience, a research project on recycling at the University of Lleida was assigned per groups of 4 students. The assignment was semi-structured, the students received a reduced set of instructions and large freedom to focus their particular projects. Additional instructions were provided along the way. We present results from the comparisons among faculties at UdL, and among the different users: students, professors and researchers, and administration staff. We also discuss the impact that this project had in the learning ability of the students and their awareness about climate change.
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Ontological and Epistemological Issues Regarding Climate Models and Computer Experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vezer, M. A.
2010-12-01
Recent philosophical discussions (Parker 2009; Frigg and Reiss 2009; Winsberg, 2009; Morgon 2002, 2003, 2005; Gula 2002) about the ontology of computer simulation experiments and the epistemology of inferences drawn from them are of particular relevance to climate science as computer modeling and analysis are instrumental in understanding climatic systems. How do computer simulation experiments compare with traditional experiments? Is there an ontological difference between these two methods of inquiry? Are there epistemological considerations that result in one type of inference being more reliable than the other? What are the implications of these questions with respect to climate studies that rely on computer simulation analysis? In this paper, I examine these philosophical questions within the context of climate science, instantiating concerns in the philosophical literature with examples found in analysis of global climate change. I concentrate on Wendy Parker’s (2009) account of computer simulation studies, which offers a treatment of these and other questions relevant to investigations of climate change involving such modelling. Two theses at the center of Parker’s account will be the focus of this paper. The first is that computer simulation experiments ought to be regarded as straightforward material experiments; which is to say, there is no significant ontological difference between computer and traditional experimentation. Parker’s second thesis is that some of the emphasis on the epistemological importance of materiality has been misplaced. I examine both of these claims. First, I inquire as to whether viewing computer and traditional experiments as ontologically similar in the way she does implies that there is no proper distinction between abstract experiments (such as ‘thought experiments’ as well as computer experiments) and traditional ‘concrete’ ones. Second, I examine the notion of materiality (i.e., the material commonality between object and target systems) and some arguments for the claim that materiality entails some inferential advantage to traditional experimentation. I maintain that Parker’s account of the ontology of computer simulations has some interesting though potentially problematic implications regarding conventional distinctions between abstract and concrete methods of inquiry. With respect to her account of materiality, I outline and defend an alternative account, posited by Mary Morgan (2002, 2003, 2005), which holds that ontological similarity between target and object systems confers some epistemological advantage to traditional forms of experimental inquiry.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Štaffenová, Daniela; Rybárik, Ján; Jakubčík, Miroslav
2017-06-01
The aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.
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Climate Considerations Of The Electricity Supply Systems In Industries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asset, Khabdullin; Zauresh, Khabdullina
2014-12-01
The study is focused on analysis of climate considerations of electricity supply systems in a pellet industry. The developed analysis model consists of two modules: statistical data of active power losses evaluation module and climate aspects evaluation module. The statistical data module is presented as a universal mathematical model of electrical systems and components of industrial load. It forms a basis for detailed accounting of power loss from the voltage levels. On the basis of the universal model, a set of programs is designed to perform the calculation and experimental research. It helps to obtain the statistical characteristics of the power losses and loads of the electricity supply systems and to define the nature of changes in these characteristics. Within the module, several methods and algorithms for calculating parameters of equivalent circuits of low- and high-voltage ADC and SD with a massive smooth rotor with laminated poles are developed. The climate aspects module includes an analysis of the experimental data of power supply system in pellet production. It allows identification of GHG emission reduction parameters: operation hours, type of electrical motors, values of load factor and deviation of standard value of voltage.
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A State-of-the-Art Experimental Laboratory for Cloud and Cloud-Aerosol Interaction Research
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fremaux, Charles M.; Bushnell, Dennis M.
2011-01-01
The state of the art for predicting climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere with high accuracy is problematic. Confidence intervals on current long-term predictions (on the order of 100 years) are so large that the ability to make informed decisions with regard to optimum strategies for mitigating both the causes of climate change and its effects is in doubt. There is ample evidence in the literature that large sources of uncertainty in current climate models are various aerosol effects. One approach to furthering discovery as well as modeling, and verification and validation (V&V) for cloud-aerosol interactions is use of a large "cloud chamber" in a complimentary role to in-situ and remote sensing measurement approaches. Reproducing all of the complex interactions is not feasible, but it is suggested that the physics of certain key processes can be established in a laboratory setting so that relevant fluid-dynamic and cloud-aerosol phenomena can be experimentally simulated and studied in a controlled environment. This report presents a high-level argument for significantly improved laboratory capability, and is meant to serve as a starting point for stimulating discussion within the climate science and other interested communities.
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Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T; Reich, Peter B; He, Jin-Sheng
2018-04-17
The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.
2007-12-01
Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Increased resource partitioning, likely mostly through spatial complementarity, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mickler, R.A.; Fox, S.A.
The mission of the SGCP is to conduct research and monitoring in the southern region of the US; to determine the interactive responses among forest ecosystems, atmospheric pollution, and climate change; and to use this knowledge to manage and protect forest ecosystems. The first 5 years of research have emphasized the interactions and impacts of five stresses: CO{sub 2}, ozone, temperature, moisture, and nutrients in pine ecosystems. Hierarchial research approaches include correlational studies, experimental field and lab studies, and modeling Across individual-tree to regional levels. The results from 36 projects suggest: elevated CO{sub 2} increases carbon gain and suppress respirationmore » across site-resource conditions; genotypes are differentially affected by climate events; and competition and reproductive biology are likely to be impacted by climate change. An overview of five years of research results will be discussed.« less
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Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado
2012-01-01
Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...
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Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund
2016-01-01
Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...
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Summary of climatic data for the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, interior Alaska.
Richard J. Barney; Erwin R. Berglund
1973-01-01
A summary of climatic data during the 1968-71 growing seasons is presented for the subarctic Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest located near Fairbanks, Alaska. Data were obtained from three weather station sites at elevations of 1,650, 1,150, and 550 feet from May until September each year. Data are for relative humidity, rainfall, and maximum, minimum, and mean...
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Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bain, Paul G.; Hornsey, Matthew J.; Bongiorno, Renata; Jeffries, Carla
2012-08-01
A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of `conversion' using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N=155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (N=347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers' pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pobachenko, S. V.; Sokolov, M. V.; Grigoriev, P. E.; Vasilieva, I. V.
2017-11-01
There are presented the results of experimental studies of the dynamics of indices of the functional state of a person located within the zones characterized by anomalous parameters of spatial distribution of magnetic field vector values. It is shown that these geophysical modifications have a pronounced effect on the dynamics of electrical activity indices of the human brain, regardless of geographic and climatic conditions.
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Experimental evaluation of reproductive response to climate warming in an oviparous skink.
Lu, Hongliang; Wang, Yong; Tang, Wenqi; DU, Weiguo
2013-06-01
The impact of climate warming on organisms is increasingly being recognized. The experimental evaluation of phenotypically plastic responses to warming is a critical step in understanding the biological effects and adaptive capacity of organisms to future climate warming. Oviparous Scincella modesta live in deeply-shaded habitats and they require low optimal temperatures during embryonic development, which makes them suitable subjects for testing the effects of warming on reproduction. We raised adult females and incubated their eggs under different thermal conditions that mimicked potential climate warming. Female reproduction, embryonic development and hatchling traits were monitored to evaluate the reproductive response to warming. Experimental warming induced females to lay eggs earlier, but it did not affect the developmental stage of embryos at oviposition or the reproductive output. The high temperatures experienced by gravid females during warming treatments reduced the incubation period and increased embryonic mortality. The locomotor performance of hatchlings was not affected by the maternal thermal environment, but it was affected by the warming treatment during embryonic development. Our results suggest that climate warming might have a profound effect on fitness-relevant traits both at embryonic and post-embryonic stages in oviparous lizards. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.
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Xiao, Dengpan; Tao, Fulu
2016-07-01
The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiao, Dengpan; Tao, Fulu
2016-07-01
The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize ( Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.
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Validation of the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey for older people care.
Suhonen, Riitta; Stolt, Minna; Katajisto, Jouko; Charalambous, Andreas; Olson, Linda L
2015-08-01
The exploration of the ethical climate in the care settings for older people is highlighted in the literature, and it has been associated with various aspects of clinical practice and nurses' jobs. However, ethical climate is seldom studied in the older people care context. Valid, reliable, feasible measures are needed for the measurement of ethical climate. This study aimed to test the reliability, validity, and sensitivity of the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey in healthcare settings for older people. A non-experimental cross-sectional study design was employed, and a survey using questionnaires, including the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey was used for data collection. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, and multivariable methods. Survey data were collected from a sample of nurses working in the care settings for older people in Finland (N = 1513, n = 874, response rate = 58%) in 2011. This study was conducted according to good scientific inquiry guidelines, and ethical approval was obtained from the university ethics committee. The mean score for the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey total was 3.85 (standard deviation = 0.56). Cronbach's alpha was 0.92. Principal component analysis provided evidence for factorial validity. LISREL provided evidence for construct validity based on goodness-of-fit statistics. Pearson's correlations of 0.68-0.90 were found between the sub-scales and the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey. The Hospital Ethical Climate Survey was found able to reveal discrimination across care settings and proved to be a valid and reliable tool for measuring ethical climate in care settings for older people and sensitive enough to reveal variations across various clinical settings. The Finnish version of the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey, used mainly in the hospital settings previously, proved to be a valid instrument to be used in the care settings for older people. Further studies are due to analyze the factor structure and some items of the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey. © The Author(s) 2014.
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Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.
Zeigler, Sara
2013-01-01
In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.
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Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome
Walker, Marilyn D.; Wahren, C. Henrik; Hollister, Robert D.; Henry, Greg H. R.; Ahlquist, Lorraine E.; Alatalo, Juha M.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Calef, Monika P.; Callaghan, Terry V.; Carroll, Amy B.; Epstein, Howard E.; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.; Klein, Julia A.; Magnússon, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Rewa, Steven P.; Robinson, Clare H.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Suding, Katharine N.; Thompson, Catharine C.; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Ørjan; Turner, P. Lee; Tweedie, Craig E.; Webber, Patrick J.; Wookey, Philip A.
2006-01-01
Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3°C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere. PMID:16428292
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Remote Sensing Studies Of The Current Martian Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taylor, F. W.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Calcutt, S. B.; Moroz, V. I.
A systematic and detailed experimental study of the Martian atmosphere remains to be carried out, despite many decades of intense interest in the nature of the Martian climate system, its interactions, variability and long-term stability. Such a study is planned by the 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, using limb-scanning infrared radiometric techniques similar to those used to study trace species in the terrestrial stratosphere. For Mars, the objectives are temperature, humidity, dust and condensate abundances with high vertical resolution and global coverage in the 0 to 80 km height range. The paper will discuss the experiment and its methodology and expectations for the results.
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The futures of climate engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Low, Sean
2017-01-01
This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.
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Lee, Jin; Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Cheung, Janelle H; Chen, Zhuo; Shaw, William S
2018-04-26
Safety climate represents the meaningfulness of safety and how safety is valued in an organization. The contributions of safety climate to organizational safety have been well documented. There is a dearth of empirical research, however, on specific safety climate interventions and their effectiveness. The present study aims at examining the trend of safety climate interventions and offering compiled information for designing and implementing evidence-based safety climate interventions. Our literature search yielded 384 titles that were inspected by three examiners. Using a stepwise process that allowed for assessment of interobserver agreement, 19 full articles were selected and reviewed. Results showed that 10 out of the 19 articles (52.6%) were based on a quasi-experimental pre- and postintervention design, whereas 42.1% (n = 8) studies were based on a mixed-design approach (including both between- and within-subject design). All interventions in these 19 studies involved either safety-/health-related communication or education/training. Improvement of safety leadership was also a common component of safety climate interventions. According to the socio-technical systems classification of intervention strategies, all studies were categorized as interventions focusing on improving organizational and managerial structure as well as the personnel subsystem; four of them also aimed at improving technological aspects of work, and five of them aimed at improving the physical work subsystem. In general, a vast majority of the studies (89.5%, n = 17) showed a statistically significant improvement in safety climate across their organizations postintervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
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Studying plant–pollinator interactions in a changing climate: A review of approaches1
Byers, Diane L.
2017-01-01
Plant–pollinator interactions are potentially at risk due to climate change. Because of the spatial and temporal variation associated with the effects of climate change and the responses of both actors, research to assess this interaction requires creative approaches. This review focuses on assessments of plants’ and pollinators’ altered phenology in response to environmental changes, as phenology is one of the key responses. I reviewed research methods with the goal of presenting the wide diversity of available techniques for addressing changes in these interactions. Approaches ranged from use of historical specimens to multisite experimental community studies; while differing in depth of historical information and community interactions, all contribute to assessment of phenology changes. Particularly insightful were those studies that directly assessed the environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales and the responses of plants and pollinators at these scales. Longer-term studies across environmental gradients, potentially with reciprocal transplants, enable an assessment of climate impacts at both scales. While changes in phenology are well studied, the impacts of phenology changes are not. Future research should include approaches to address this gap. PMID:28690933
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.
2013-12-01
Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wootten, A.; Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Mcpherson, R. A.
2017-12-01
Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) approaches attempt to refine global climate model (GCM) information via statistical relationships between observations and GCM simulations. The aim of such downscaling efforts is to create added-value climate projections by adding finer spatial detail and reducing biases. The results of statistical downscaling exercises are often used in impact assessments under the assumption that past performance provides an indicator of future results. Given prior research describing the danger of this assumption with regards to temperature, this study expands the perfect model experimental design from previous case studies to test the stationarity assumption with respect to precipitation. Assuming stationarity implies the performance of ESD methods are similar between the future projections and historical training. Case study results from four quantile-mapping based ESD methods demonstrate violations of the stationarity assumption for both central tendency and extremes of precipitation. These violations vary geographically and seasonally. For the four ESD methods tested the greatest challenges for downscaling of daily total precipitation projections occur in regions with limited precipitation and for extremes of precipitation along Southeast coastal regions. We conclude with a discussion of future expansion of the perfect model experimental design and the implications for improving ESD methods and providing guidance on the use of ESD techniques for impact assessments and decision-support.
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Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Color Maps
HOME > Outlook Maps > Monthly to Seasonal Outlooks > Seasonal Outlooks > Color Monthly & ; Seasonal Outlooks Monthly & Seasonal Climate Outlooks Banner Issued: 17 May 2018 [EXPERIMENTAL TWO
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gol-Guven, Mine
2017-01-01
This study examines the effectiveness of the Lions Quest Program: Skills for Growing by employing a quasi-experimental design with a control group. The experimental and control group each comprises two primary schools--one public, one private. One classroom at each grade level, 1 through 4, in each school was selected by random sampling for a…
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Psychosocial correlates of adolescent marijuana use: variations by status of marijuana use.
Farhat, Tilda; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Luk, Jeremy W
2011-04-01
This study examined the associations between psychosocial factors and status of marijuana use: former experimentation, current occasional, and current frequent use. Data were collected from a nationally-representative sample of U.S. tenth-graders who participated in the 2005/6 Health Behavior in School-aged Children Study (n=1465). Multinomial regressions, run separately by gender, examined the association of risk and protective factors from the individual (life satisfaction; academic achievement; aggression, bullying) and contextual (mothers and fathers' knowledge of adolescents' activities, school climate) domains with status of marijuana use (former experimentation, current occasional use, current frequent use). Former experimental and current marijuana uses were negatively associated with protective factors such as academic achievement, mothers' and fathers' knowledge of adolescents' activities, and life satisfaction, but not with positive school climate. Former experimental and current marijuana uses were positively associated with aggression and bullying perpetration. Most associations varied by gender and status of marijuana use. In adjusted analyses, aggression emerged as the sole risk factor and fathers' knowledge as the sole protective factor associated with most statuses of marijuana use, across gender. Fathers may be particularly important in preventing adolescent marijuana use, and interventions promoting fathers' knowledge of adolescents' activities are warranted. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre
Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less
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Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; ...
2016-08-25
Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less
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Report on the projected future climate of the Walnut Gulch Watershed, AZ
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
This report is one of several that provides technical information on projected climate change at selected ARS experimental watersheds across the continental United States. The report is an attachment to the main report of the multi-location project titled “Estimating impacts of projected climate cha...
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Climate Prediction Center - monthly Outlook
Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Outlooks monthly Climate Outlooks Banner OFFICIAL Forecasts June 2018 [UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE] [EXPERIMENTAL TWO-CLASS SEASONAL FORECASTS] Text-Format Discussions Monthly Long Lead 30
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Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cole, Daniel H.
2015-02-01
Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.
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Disentangling the response of streamflow to forest management and climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dymond, S.; Miniat, C.; Bladon, K. D.; Keppeler, E.; Caldwell, P. V.
2016-12-01
Paired watershed studies have showcased the relationships between forests, management, and streamflow. However, classical analyses of paired-watershed studies have done little to disentangle the effects of management from overarching climatic signals, potentially masking the interaction between management and climate. Such approaches may confound our understanding of how forest management impacts streamflow. Here we use a 50-year record of streamflow and climate data from the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds (CCEW), California, USA to separate the effects of forest management and climate on streamflow. CCEW has two treatment watersheds that have been harvested in the past 50 years. We used a nonlinear mixed model to combine the pre-treatment relationship between streamflow and climate and the post-treatment relationship via an interaction between climate and management into one equation. Our results show that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alone can account for >95% of the variability in pre-treatment streamflow. Including management scenarios into the model explained most of the variability in streamflow (R2 > 0.98). While forest harvesting altered streamflow in both of our modeled watersheds, removing 66% of the vegetation via selection logging using a tractor yarding system over the entire watershed had a more substantial impact on streamflow than clearcutting small portions of a watershed using cable-yarding. These results suggest that forest harvesting may result in differing impacts on streamflow and highlights the need to incorporate climate into streamflow analyses of paired-watershed studies.
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Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J.; Reich, Peter B.
2018-01-01
The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity. PMID:29666319
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Self-handicapping in school physical education: The influence of the motivational climate.
Standage, Martyn; Treasure, Darren C; Hooper, Katherine; Kuczka, Kendy
2007-03-01
Self-handicapping is an attribution-related process whereby individuals create performance impediments/excuses to protect self-worth in socially evaluative environments. Thus, the prevailing motivational climate would appear to be an important factor when attempting to understand the situational self-handicapping process within school physical education. Drawing from achievement goal theory, the study examined the effect of experimentally induced conditions (viz. task vs. ego) on situational self-handicapping. Seventy British secondary school students (36 females and 34 males; M age = 11.98; SD=0.31). Participants were randomly assigned to partake in a running endurance task in either an ego-involving (20 male students and 16 female students) or a task-involving (14 male students and 20 female students) condition. Prior to completing the experimental task, participants were given the opportunity to claim situational self-handicaps. Data for goal orientations, subjective climate perceptions, perceived ability and perceived task importance were also obtained. After determining the effectiveness of the experimental manipulation, results revealed participants in the ego-involving condition to report significantly more situational self-handicapping claims. Further, and after controlling for individual difference variables, the results of moderated hierarchical regression analysis revealed subjective perceptions of an ego-involving climate to be the main positive predictor of situational self-handicapping. Although a weaker contributor to the percentage of variance explained, task orientation emerged as a negative predictor of situational self-handicapping. The findings suggest that PE teachers would be prudent to minimize ego-involving situations should they wish to reduce situational self-handicapping.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.
2008-04-01
Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.
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The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.
1988-07-01
In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a series of statements on (i) possible preventive, compensatory and substitution strategies and (ii) an assessment of current knowledge gaps and deficiencies, with recommendations for future areas of research.
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Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead.
Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M
2013-06-01
Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future.
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Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead
Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M
2013-01-01
Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future. PMID:23789087
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Experimentation with a Socio-Constructivist Process for Climate Change Education
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pruneau, Diane; Gravel, Helene; Bourque, Wendy; Langis, Joanne
2003-01-01
A socio-constructivist and experiential process for climate change education was experimented within two coastal communities of Eastern Canada with 39 students 13 and 14 years of age. The pedagogical process, based on local observation of climate change, Duit's conceptual change theory (1999) and experiential learning, aimed for the improvement of…
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Climate and hydrology of the Entiat Experimental Forest watersheds under virgin forest cover.
J.D. Helvey; W.B. Fowler; G.O. Klock; A.R. Tiedemann
1976-01-01
Climatic and hydrologic measurements were made on three watersheds, each containing approximately 2 square miles (5.18 km2) of drainage area, for 9 years under natural forested conditions. This paper describes the watersheds with respect to soils and geology, morphology, vegetation, precipitation and other climatic parameters, and flow, sediment...
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Response of salt marsh and mangrove wetlands to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and sea-level
Mckee, Karen L.; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Middleton, Beth A.
2012-01-01
Coastal salt marsh and mangrove ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate and climate-induced changes. We provide a review of the literature detailing theoretical predictions and observed responses of coastal wetlands to a range of climate change stressors, including CO2, temperature, rainfall, and sea-level rise. This review incorporates a discussion of key processes controlling responses in different settings and thresholds of resilience derived from experimental and observational studies. We specifically consider the potential and observed effects on salt marsh and mangrove vegetation of changes in (1) elevated [CO2] on physiology, growth, and distribution; (2) temperature on distribution and diversity; (3) rainfall and salinity regimes on growth and competitive interactions; and (4) sea level on geomorphological, hydrological, and biological processes.
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Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions
Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, Allen; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.
2005-01-01
The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
LaRow, Timothy
The SSTs used in our study come from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) (Gent et al 2011) and from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CanESM2) (Chylek et al20ll) climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al2012). We've examined the tropical cyclones using both the historical simulation that employs volcanic and aerosol forcing as well as the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). In addition, we've compared the present day North Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics from a previous study (LaRow, 2013) to these climate change experiments. The experimental setup is shownmore » in Table 1. We considered the CMIP5 experiment number '3.2 historical' (Taylor et al,201l), which provides simulations of the recent past (1850-2005). The second set of CMIP5 SSTs is the RCp4.5 experiment where the radiative forcing stabilizes at 45W m-2 after 2100 (experiment number 4.1 in Taylor etal2}ll).« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Goldberg, Louise F.; Harmon, Anna C.
2015-04-09
This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes. NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. These data currently span the periodmore » from November 10, 2012 through May 31, 2014 and are anticipated to be extended through November 2014. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.« less
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Experimental climate change weakens the insurance effect of biodiversity.
Eklöf, Johan S; Alsterberg, Christian; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina; Wood, Hannah L; Gamfeldt, Lars
2012-08-01
Ecosystems are simultaneously affected by biodiversity loss and climate change, but we know little about how these factors interact. We predicted that climate warming and CO (2) -enrichment should strengthen trophic cascades by reducing the relative efficiency of predation-resistant herbivores, if herbivore consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. This weakens the insurance effect of herbivore diversity. We tested this prediction using experimental ocean warming and acidification in seagrass mesocosms. Meta-analyses of published experiments first indicated that consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. The experiment then showed that three common herbivores together controlled macroalgae and facilitated seagrass dominance, regardless of climate change. When the predation-vulnerable herbivore was excluded in normal conditions, the two resistant herbivores maintained top-down control. Under warming, however, increased algal growth outstripped control by herbivores and the system became algal-dominated. Consequently, climate change can reduce the relative efficiency of resistant herbivores and weaken the insurance effect of biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
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Garfí, Marianna; Pedescoll, Anna; Bécares, Eloy; Hijosa-Valsero, María; Sidrach-Cardona, Ricardo; García, Joan
2012-10-15
The aim of this study was to examine the effects of climate, season and wastewater quality on contaminant removal efficiency of constructed wetlands implemented in Mediterranean and continental-Mediterranean climate region of Spain. To this end, two experimental horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands located in Barcelona and León (Spain) were compared. The two constructed wetland systems had the same experimental set-up. Each wetland had a surface area of 2.95 m(2), a water depth of 25 cm and a granular medium of D(60)=7.3 mm, and was planted with Phragmites australis. Both systems were designed in order to operate with a maximum organic loading rate of 6 g(DBO) m(-2) d(-1). Experimental systems operated with a hydraulic loading rate of 28.5 and 98 mm d(-1) in Barcelona and León, respectively. Total suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium mass removal efficiencies followed seasonal trends, with higher values in the summer (97.4% vs. 97.8%; 97.1% vs. 96.2%; 99.9% vs. 88.9%, in Barcelona and León systems, respectively) than in the winter (83.5% vs. 74.4%; 73.2% vs. 60.6%; 19% vs. no net removal for ammonium in Barcelona and León systems, respectively). During the cold season, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium removal were significantly higher in Barcelona system than in León, as a result of higher temperature and redox potential in Barcelona. During the warm season, statistical differences were observed only for ammonium removal. Results showed that horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetland is a successful technology for both regions considered, even if winter seemed to be a critical period for ammonium removal in continental climate regions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Lessons learnt from the Climate Dialogue initiative
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crok, Marcel; Strengers, Bart; Vasileiadou, Eleftheria
2015-04-01
The weblog Climate Dialogue (climatedialogue.org) has been an experimental climate change communication project. It was the result of a motion in the Dutch parliament, which asked the Dutch government "to also involve climate sceptics in future studies on climate change". Climate Dialogue was set up by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and Dutch science journalist Marcel Crok. It operated for slightly more than two years (From November 2012 till December 2014). Around 20 climate scientists from all over the world, many of them leading in their respective fields, participated in six dialogues. Climate Dialogue was a moderated blog on controversial climate science topics introducing a combination of several novel elements: a) bringing together scientists with widely separated viewpoints b) strict moderation of the discussion and c) compilation of executive and extended summaries of the discussions that were approved by the invited scientists. In our talk, we will discuss the operation and results of the Climate Dialogue project, focusing more explicitly on the lessons learnt with respect to online climate change communication addressing the question: "To what extent can online climate change communication bring together climate scientists with widely separated viewpoints, and what would be the advantage of such communication practice?" We identify how Climate Dialogue was received and perceived by the participating scientists, but also by different scientific and online communities. Finally, we present our ideas on how Climate Dialogue could evolve in a novel way of contributing to (climate) science and what steps would be necessary and/or beneficial for such a platform to survive and succeed.
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Effects of climate and snow depth on Bromus tectorum population dynamics at high elevation.
Griffith, Alden B; Loik, Michael E
2010-11-01
Invasive plants are thought to be especially capable of range shifts or expansion in response to climate change due to high dispersal and colonization abilities. Although highly invasive throughout the Intermountain West, the presence and impact of the grass Bromus tectorum has been limited at higher elevations in the eastern Sierra Nevada, potentially due to extreme wintertime conditions. However, climate models project an upward elevational shift of climate regimes in the Sierra Nevada that could favor B. tectorum expansion. This research specifically examined the effects of experimental snow depth manipulations and interannual climate variability over 5 years on B. tectorum populations at high elevation (2,175 m). Experimentally-increased snow depth had an effect on phenology and biomass, but no effect on individual fecundity. Instead an experimentally-increased snowpack inhibited population growth in 1 year by reducing seedling emergence and early survival. A similar negative effect of increased snow was observed 2 years later. However, a strong negative effect on B. tectorum was also associated with a naturally low-snow winter, when seedling emergence was reduced by 86%. Across 5 years, winters with greater snow cover and a slower accumulation of degree-days coincided with higher B. tectorum seedling density and population growth. Thus, we observed negative effects associated with both experimentally-increased and naturally-decreased snowpacks. It is likely that the effect of snow at high elevation is nonlinear and differs from lower elevations where wintertime germination can be favorable. Additionally, we observed a doubling of population size in 1 year, which is alarming at this elevation.
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Climate variation alters the synchrony of host–parasitoid interactions
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Although some research has examined how parasitoids will respond to colder temperatures or experimental warming, we know relatively little about how increased variation in temperature could affect interactions between parasitoids and their hosts. Using a study system consisting of emerald ash borer...
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2015-02-01
This research builds on the related Phase 1 project. In this second phase, we continue to : study neighborhood and housing preferences that shape the residential location decision process. An : online experimental survey tool is developed to investig...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Ashok; Deoliya, Rajesh; Chani, P. S.
2015-12-01
Green roofs not only provide cooling by shading, but also by transpiration of water through the stomata. However, the evidence for green roofs providing significant air cooling remains limited. No literature investigates the thermal performance of prefab brick panel roofing technology with green roof. Hence, the aim of this research is to investigate the thermal behavior of an experimental room, built at CSIR-Central Building Research Institute (CBRI) campus, Roorkee, India using such roofing technology during May 2013. The study also explores the feasibility of green roof with grass carpets that require minimum irrigation, to assess the expected indoor thermal comfort improvements by doing real-time experimental studies. The results show that the proposed green roof system is suitable for reducing the energy demand for space cooling during hot summer, without worsening the winter energy performance. The cost of proposed retrofit system is about Rs. 1075 per m2. Therefore, green roofs can be used efficiently in retrofitting existing buildings in India to improve the micro-climate on building roofs and roof insulation, where the additional load carrying capacity of buildings is about 100-130 kg/m2.
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Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil
2016-04-01
Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.
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Amburgey, Staci; Funk, W. Chris; Murphy, Melanie; Muths, Erin
2012-01-01
Understanding the relationship between climate-driven habitat conditions and survival is key to preserving biodiversity in the face of rapid climate change. Hydroperiod—the length of time water is in a wetland—is a critical limiting habitat variable for amphibians as larvae must metamorphose before ponds dry. Changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are affecting hydroperiod globally, but the impact of these changes on amphibian persistence is poorly understood. We studied the responses of Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata) tadpoles to simulated hydroperiods (i.e., water level reductions) in the laboratory using individuals collected from ponds spanning a range of natural hydroperiods (Colorado Front Range, USA). To assess the effects of experimental hydroperiod reduction, we measured mortality, time to metamorphosis, and size at metamorphosis. We found that tadpoles grew at rates reflecting the hydroperiods of their native ponds, regardless of experimental treatment. Tadpoles from permanent ponds metamorphosed faster than those from ephemeral ponds across all experimental treatments, a pattern which may represent a predation selection gradient or countergradient variation in developmental rates. Size at metamorphosis did not vary across experimental treatments. Mortality was low overall but varied with pond of origin. Our results suggest that adaptation to local hydroperiod and/or predation and temperature conditions is important in P. maculata. Moreover, the lack of a plastic response to reduced hydroperiods suggests that P. maculata may not be able to metamorphose quickly enough to escape drying ponds. These results have important implications for amphibian persistence in ponds predicted to dry more quickly due to rapid climate change.
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Analysis of Solar Chimneys in Different Climate Zones - Case of Social Housing in Ecuador
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Godoy-Vaca, Luis; Almaguer, Manuel; Martínez-Gómez, Javier; Lobato, Andrea; Palme, Massimo
2017-10-01
The aim of this research is to simulate the performance of a solar chimney located in different macro-zones in Ecuador. The proposed solar chimney model was simulated using a python script in order to predict the temperature distribution and the mass flow over time. The results obtained were firstly compared with experimental data for dry-warm climate. Then, the model was evaluated and tested in real weather conditions: dry-warm, moist-warm and rainy-cold. In addition, the assumed chimney dimensions were chosen according to the literature for the studied conditions. In spite of evaluating the best nightly ventilation, different chimney wall materials were tested: solid brick, common brick and reinforced concrete. The results showed that concrete in a dry-warm climate, a metallic layer on the gap with solid brick in a moist-warm climate and reinforced concrete in a rainy cold climate used for the absorbent wall improve the thermal inertia of the social housing.
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Mark, Barbara A; Hughes, Linda C; Belyea, Michael; Chang, Yunkyung; Hofmann, David; Jones, Cheryl B; Bacon, Cynthia T
2007-01-01
Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.
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Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Ecker, Ullrich K. H.
2017-01-01
Misinformation can undermine a well-functioning democracy. For example, public misconceptions about climate change can lead to lowered acceptance of the reality of climate change and lowered support for mitigation policies. This study experimentally explored the impact of misinformation about climate change and tested several pre-emptive interventions designed to reduce the influence of misinformation. We found that false-balance media coverage (giving contrarian views equal voice with climate scientists) lowered perceived consensus overall, although the effect was greater among free-market supporters. Likewise, misinformation that confuses people about the level of scientific agreement regarding anthropogenic global warming (AGW) had a polarizing effect, with free-market supporters reducing their acceptance of AGW and those with low free-market support increasing their acceptance of AGW. However, we found that inoculating messages that (1) explain the flawed argumentation technique used in the misinformation or that (2) highlight the scientific consensus on climate change were effective in neutralizing those adverse effects of misinformation. We recommend that climate communication messages should take into account ways in which scientific content can be distorted, and include pre-emptive inoculation messages. PMID:28475576
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Effects of temperature variations on guided waves propagating in composite structures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shoja, Siavash; Berbyuk, Viktor; Boström, Anders
2016-04-01
Effects of temperature on guided waves propagating in composite materials is a well-known problem which has been investigated in many studies. The majority of the studies is focused on effects of high temperature. Understanding the effects of low temperature has major importance in composite structures and components which are operating in cold climate conditions such as e.g. wind turbines operating in cold climate regions. In this study first the effects of temperature variations on guided waves propagating in a composite plate is investigated experimentally in a cold climate chamber. The material is a common material used to manufacture rotor blades of wind turbines. The temperature range is 25°C to -25°C and effects of temperature variations on amplitude and phase shift of the received signal are investigated. In order to apply the effects of lowering the temperature on the received signal, the Baseline Signal Stretch (BSS) method is modified and used. The modification is based on decomposing the signal into symmetric and asymmetric modes and applying two different stretch factors on each of them. Finally the results obtained based on the new method is compared with the results of application of BSS with one stretch factor and experimental measurements. Comparisons show that an improvement is obtained using the BSS with the mode decomposition method at temperature variations of more than 25°C.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Adams-Smith, D.
2017-12-01
Several challenges exist when seeking to use future climate model projections in a climate impacts study. A not uncommon approach is to utilize climate projection data sets derived from more than one future emissions scenario and from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The range of future climate responses represented in the set is sometimes taken to be indicative of levels of uncertainty in the projections. Yet, GCM outputs are deemed to be unsuitable for direct use in many climate impacts applications. GCM grids typically are viewed as being too coarse. Additionally, regional or local-scale biases in a GCM's simulation of the contemporary climate that may not be problematic from a global climate modeling perspective may be unacceptably large for a climate impacts application. Statistical downscaling (SD) of climate projections - a type of post-processing that uses observations to inform the refinement of GCM projections - is often used in an attempt to account for GCM biases and to provide additional spatial detail. "What downscaled climate projection is the best one to use" is a frequently asked question, but one that is not always easy to answer, as it can be dependent on stakeholder needs and expectations. Here we present results from a perfect model experimental design illustrating how SD method performance can vary not only by SD method, but how performance can also vary by location, season, climate variable of interest, amount of projected climate change, SD configuration choices, and whether one is interested in central tendencies or the tails of the distribution. Awareness of these factors can be helpful when seeking to determine the suitability of downscaled climate projections for specific climate impacts applications. It also points to the potential value of considering more than one SD data product in a study, so as to acknowledge uncertainties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of different downscaling methods.
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Afrane, Yaw A; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun
2012-02-01
Climate change is expected to lead to latitudinal and altitudinal temperature increases. High-elevation regions such as the highlands of Africa and those that have temperate climate are most likely to be affected. The highlands of Africa generally exhibit low ambient temperatures. This restricts the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, the vectors of malaria, filariasis, and O'nyong'nyong fever. The development and survival of larval and adult mosquitoes are temperature dependent, as are mosquito biting frequency and pathogen development rate. Given that various Anopheles species are adapted to different climatic conditions, changes in climate could lead to changes in species composition in an area that may change the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease transmission. It is important to consider the effect of climate change on rainfall, which is critical to the formation and persistence of mosquito breeding sites. In addition, environmental changes such as deforestation could increase local temperatures in the highlands; this could enhance the vectorial capacity of the Anopheles. These experimental data will be invaluable in facilitating the understanding of the impact of climate change on Anopheles. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.
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Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano
2012-02-01
In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cavanaugh, K. C.; Kellner, J.; Cook-Patton, S.; Williams, P.; Feller, I. C.; Parker, J.
2014-12-01
Due to limitations of purely correlative species distribution models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD was a better predictor of mangrove presence/absence than other temperature-based metrics. Using 27 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to past changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further supporting the relevance of FDD. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project poleward migration of these range limits over the next 50 years.
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Regulating Emotional Responses to Climate Change – A Construal Level Perspective
Ejelöv, Emma; Hansla, André; Bergquist, Magnus; Nilsson, Andreas
2018-01-01
This experimental study (N = 139) examines the role of emotions in climate change risk communication. Drawing on Construal Level Theory, we tested how abstract vs. concrete descriptions of climate threat affect basic and self-conscious emotions and three emotion regulation strategies: changing oneself, repairing the situation and distancing oneself. In a 2 × 2 between subjects factorial design, climate change consequences were described as concrete/abstract and depicted as spatially proximate/distant. Results showed that, as hypothesized, increased self-conscious emotions mediate overall positive effects of abstract description on self-change and repair attempts. Unexpectedly and independent of any emotional process, a concrete description of a spatially distant consequence is shown to directly increase self-change and repair attempts, while it has no such effects when the consequence is spatially proximate. “Concretizing the remote” might refer to a potentially effective strategy for overcoming spatial distance barriers and motivating mitigating behavior. PMID:29780340
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Regulating Emotional Responses to Climate Change - A Construal Level Perspective.
Ejelöv, Emma; Hansla, André; Bergquist, Magnus; Nilsson, Andreas
2018-01-01
This experimental study ( N = 139) examines the role of emotions in climate change risk communication. Drawing on Construal Level Theory, we tested how abstract vs. concrete descriptions of climate threat affect basic and self-conscious emotions and three emotion regulation strategies: changing oneself, repairing the situation and distancing oneself. In a 2 × 2 between subjects factorial design, climate change consequences were described as concrete/abstract and depicted as spatially proximate/distant. Results showed that, as hypothesized, increased self-conscious emotions mediate overall positive effects of abstract description on self-change and repair attempts. Unexpectedly and independent of any emotional process, a concrete description of a spatially distant consequence is shown to directly increase self-change and repair attempts, while it has no such effects when the consequence is spatially proximate. "Concretizing the remote" might refer to a potentially effective strategy for overcoming spatial distance barriers and motivating mitigating behavior.
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Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege
2016-04-01
In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.
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Wallin, Carl-Johan; Kalman, Sigridur; Sandelin, Annika; Färnert, May-Lena; Dahlstrand, Ursula; Jylli, Leena
2015-03-01
Positive safety and a teamwork climate in the training environment may be a precursor for successful teamwork training. This pilot project aimed to implement and test whether a new interdisciplinary and team-based approach would result in a positive training climate in the operating theatre. A 3-day educational module for training the complete surgical team of specialist nursing students and residents in safe teamwork skills in an authentic operative theatre, named Co-Op, was implemented in a university hospital. Participants' (n=22) perceptions of the 'safety climate' and the 'teamwork climate', together with their 'readiness for inter-professional learning', were measured to examine if the Co-Op module produced a positive training environment compared with the perceptions of a control group (n=11) attending the conventional curriculum. The participants' perceptions of 'safety climate' and 'teamwork climate' and their 'readiness for inter-professional learning' scores were significantly higher following the Co-Op module compared with their perceptions following the conventional curriculum, and compared with the control group's perceptions following the conventional curriculum. The Co-Op module improved 'safety climate' and 'teamwork climate' in the operating theatre, which suggests that a deliberate and designed educational intervention can shape a learning environment as a model for the establishment of a safety culture.
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Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.
Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François
2014-01-01
Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Smith, Robert J.; Nelson, Peter R.; Jovan, Sarah
Premise of the Study: Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined.Methods: We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long experiment featuring whole-ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures were located near the southern edge of the species’ range.Keymore » Results: Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with atmospheric drying. Mean annual biomass growth was 14% in ambient treatments, 2% in unheated control treatments, and -9% to -19% (decreases) in energy-added treatments ranging from +2.25 to +9.00°C above ambient temperatures. Warming-induced biomass losses among persistent individuals were suggestive evidence of an extinction debt that could precede further local mortality events.Conclusions: Changing patterns of warming and drying would decrease or reverse Evernia growth at its southern range margins, with potential consequences for the maintenance of local and regional populations. Negative carbon balances among persisting individuals could physiologically commit these epiphytes to local extinction. Our findings illuminate the processes underlying local extinctions of epiphytes and suggest broader consequences for range shrinkage if dispersal and recruitment rates cannot keep pace.« less
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Particle size distributions from laboratory-scale biomass fires using fast response instruments
S Hosseini; L. Qi; D. Cocker; D. Weise; A. Miller; M. Shrivastava; J.W. Miller; S. Mahalingam; M. Princevac; H. Jung
2010-01-01
Particle size distribution from biomass combustion is an important parameter as it affects air quality, climate modelling and health effects. To date, particle size distributions reported from prior studies vary not only due to difference in fuels but also difference in experimental conditions. This study aims to report characteristics of particle size distributions in...
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Description of the Fork Mountain long-term soil productivity study: site characterization
Mary Beth Adams; James Burger; Lucian Zelazny; John Baumgras
2004-01-01
The effects of air pollution and timber harvesting on soil resources continue to be an important issue in eastern hardwood forests. This publication describes the Fork Mountain Long-term Soil Productivity Study (LTSP), located on the Fernow Experimental Forest, WV, and the pretreatment stand, soil and climatic conditions. Extensive vegetation surveys, biomass...
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Wallner, Peter; Munoz, Ute; Tappler, Peter; Wanka, Anna; Kundi, Michael; Shelton, Janie F; Hutter, Hans-Peter
2015-11-06
Energy-efficient buildings need mechanical ventilation. However, there are concerns that inadequate mechanical ventilation may lead to impaired indoor air quality. Using a semi-experimental field study, we investigated if exposure of occupants of two types of buildings (mechanical vs. natural ventilation) differs with regard to indoor air pollutants and climate factors. We investigated living and bedrooms in 123 buildings (62 highly energy-efficient and 61 conventional buildings) built in the years 2010 to 2012 in Austria (mainly Vienna and Lower Austria). Measurements of indoor parameters (climate, chemical pollutants and biological contaminants) were conducted twice. In total, more than 3000 measurements were performed. Almost all indoor air quality and room climate parameters showed significantly better results in mechanically ventilated homes compared to those relying on ventilation from open windows and/or doors. This study does not support the hypothesis that occupants in mechanically ventilated low energy houses are exposed to lower indoor air quality.
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From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
2016-04-01
Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
NorthernSTAR
2014-09-01
This report focuses on the progress made to date and the technical details of the experiment. An overview of the experimental data being collected with some interesting highlights noted thus far is also provided. A full analysis of the experimental data and the drawing of conclusions with regard to the thermal and hygrothermal performance of the retrofit foundation insulation systems tested will only be possible after a full year of data has been collected in 2014.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stastnik, S.
2016-06-01
Development of materials for vertical outer building structures tends to application of hollow clay blocks filled with some appropriate insulation material. Ceramic fittings provide high thermal resistance, but the walls built from them suffer from condensation of air humidity in winter season frequently. The paper presents the computational simulation and experimental laboratory validation of moisture behaviour of such masonry with insulation prepared from waste fibres under the Central European climatic conditions.
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Ujang, Z; Soedjono, E; Salim, M R; Shutes, R B
2005-01-01
Municipal leachate was treated in an experimental unit of constructed wetlands of subsurface flow type. The parameters studied were organics (BOD and COD), solids and heavy metals (Zn, Ni, Cu, Cr and Pb). Using two types of emergent plants of Scirpus globulosus and Eriocaulon sexangulare, more than 80% removal was achieved for all the parameters. E. sexangulare removed organics and heavy metals better than Scirpus globulosus. A higher concentration of heavy metals in the influent did not change the removal efficiency.
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Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T. Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Mori, Akira S.; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Reich, Peter B.; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W.; Smith, Melinda D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F.; van der Putten, Wim H.; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico
2015-10-01
It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.
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Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.
Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T; Mori, Akira S; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A; Polley, H Wayne; Reich, Peter B; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W; Smith, Melinda D; Thakur, Madhav P; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F; van der Putten, Wim H; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico
2015-10-22
It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.
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Olsen, Siri L; Töpper, Joachim P; Skarpaas, Olav; Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari
2016-05-01
Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Predictions suggest that current crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet global food and energy demands. Based on theory and experimental studies, overexpression of the photosynthetic enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (SBPase) is expected to enhance C3 crop photosynthesis and yields. H...
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Genetic and environmental limitations on crop responses to elevated [CO2
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
While the future crop growing environment is likely to be warmer and with more variable water availability, the stimulation of C3 photosynthesis by elevated CO2 concentration provides a potential benefit of global climate change. However, experimental field studies suggest that C3 crops fall short o...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.
2011-01-01
The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.
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Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Stoll, D.K.; Dolan, A.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M.A.
2011-01-01
The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.
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Research on Potential Induced Degradation (PID) of PV Modules in Different Typical Climate Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daoren, Gong; Yingnan, Chen; Gang, Sun; Wenjing, Wang; Zhenshuang, Ji
2018-03-01
Potential Induced Degradation (PID) is one of the most important factors effecting the performances of Photovoltaic (PV) modules and PV systems in recent years. In this paper the PID phenomena of the PV power plant in different typical climate regions were studied and some experimental PID simulations were carried out in order to find out the factors effecting the performance by PID. The results show that the typical PID phenomena are easy to occur in cells close to the border of the PV module. PID phenomena can appear in PV power plants under different climate conditions, but the effecting degrees on module performance are different depending on temperature, humidity and other parameters. We also find the maximum power would recover in some degree after positive-bias voltage duration.
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Verhoek-Miller, Nancy; Miller, Duane I; Shirachi, Miyoko; Hoda, Nicholas
2002-08-01
Two studies investigated teachers' and principals' power styles as related to college students' retrospective ratings of satisfaction and peers' abusive behavior. One study also investigated retrospective self-perception as related to students' sensitivity to the occurrence of physical and psychological abuse in the school environment. Among the findings were positive correlations between subjects' perceptions that their typical elementary school teacher used referent, legitimate, or expert power styles and subjects' reported satisfaction with their elementary school experience. Small but statistically significant correlations were found suggesting that principals' power style was weakly associated with ratings of psychological abuse in elementary school and physical abuse in middle school. Also, students who rated themselves as intelligent, sensitive, attractive, and depressive had higher ratings of perceived psychological and physical abuse at school. It was concluded that parameters of leaders' power styles and subjects' vigilance might be useful for understanding school climates. Experimentally designed studies are required.
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Increasing pro-environmental behaviors by increasing self-concordance: Testing an intervention.
Unsworth, Kerrie L; McNeill, Ilona M
2017-01-01
Globally, there is a clear need to change our behavior to mitigate climate change. Many people, however, will not find the need for mitigation important enough to make their behavior more environmentally sustainable. Three studies supported the hypothesis that it is possible to overcome this issue by connecting these behaviors to goals that are important to people, even if such goals are unrelated to climate change or the environment in general. Study 1 (N = 305 working adults) showed that stronger self-concordance of behavior related to energy sustainability was related to a greater chance of signing a petition for increasing renewable energy sources. Next, 2 experimental studies (Study 2: N = 412 working and nonworking adults, and Study 3: N = 300 working adults) showed that increasing self-concordance of environmentally sustainable behaviors by asking people to cognitively connect either sustainable energy use (Study 2) or commuting behaviors (Study 3) to their personal goals increased intentions to engage in these behaviors compared to a control condition (Study 2 and Study 3) and compared to persuasion attempts based on climate change mitigation (Study 3). These findings occurred even after controlling for political orientation and environmental concerns. This research has significant practical implications for workplaces, particularly for those in which employees or managers place a low priority on environmental and climate change considerations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
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Experimental evidence for herbivore limitation of the treeline.
Speed, James D M; Austrheim, Gunnar; Hester, Alison J; Mysterud, Atle
2010-11-01
The treeline ecotone divides forest from open alpine or arctic vegetation states. Treelines are generally perceived to be temperature limited. The role of herbivores in limiting the treeline is more controversial, as experimental evidence from relevant large scales is lacking. Here we quantify the impact of different experimentally controlled herbivore densities on the recruitment and survival of birch Betula pubescens tortuosa along an altitudinal gradient in the mountains of southern Norway. After eight years of summer grazing in large-scale enclosures at densities of 0, 25, and 80 sheep/km2, birch recruited within the whole altitudinal range of ungrazed enclosures, but recruitment was rarer in enclosures with low-density sheep and was largely limited to within the treeline in enclosures with high-density sheep. In contrast, the distribution of saplings (birch older than the experiment) did not differ between grazing treatments, suggesting that grazing sheep primarily limit the establishment of new tree recruits rather than decrease the survival of existing individuals. This study provides direct experimental evidence that herbivores can limit the treeline below its potential at the landscape scale and even at low herbivore densities in this climatic zone. Land use changes should thus be considered in addition to climatic changes as potential drivers of ecotone shifts.
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A network of experimental forests and ranges: Providing soil solutions for a changing world
Mary Beth Adams
2010-01-01
The network of experimental forests and ranges of the USDA Forest Service represents significant opportunities to provide soil solutions to critical issues of a changing world. This network of 81 experimental forests and ranges encompasses broad geographic, biological, climatic and physical scales, and includes long-term data sets, and long-term experimental...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir Bin
2015-01-01
Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that child-centred, 5E learning cycle-based climate change activities would have over more traditional teacher-centred activities on Malaysian Year 5 primary students (11 years). A quasi-experimental design involving a treatment (n = 55) and a group representing typical teaching method (n = 60) was used to measure the effectiveness of these activities on (a) increasing children's knowledge about global warming; (b) changing their attitudes to be more favourable towards the environment and (c) identify the relationship between knowledge and attitude that exist in this study. Statistically significant differences in favour of the treatment group were detected for both knowledge and environmental attitudes. Non-significant relationship was identified between knowledge and attitude in this study. Interviews with randomly selected students from treatment and comparison groups further underscore these findings. Implications are discussed.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon;
2014-01-01
Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.
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Liu, Daijun; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Estiarte, Marc; Tielbörger, Katja; Slowik, Fabian; Yang, Xiaohong; Bilton, Mark C
2018-03-01
Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.
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Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming
Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson
2013-01-01
Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Griffies, Stephen M.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Durack, Paul J.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Balaji, V.; Böning, Claus W.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Curchitser, Enrique; Deshayes, Julie; Drange, Helge; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Gleckler, Peter J.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hallberg, Robert W.; Heimbach, Patrick; Hewitt, Helene T.; Holland, David M.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Komuro, Yoshiki; Krasting, John P.; Large, William G.; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; McDougall, Trevor J.; Nurser, A. J. George; Orr, James C.; Pirani, Anna; Qiao, Fangli; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Taylor, Karl E.; Treguier, Anne Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valdivieso, Maria; Wang, Qiang; Winton, Michael; Yeager, Stephen G.
2016-09-01
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs.OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.
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Rohwer, V G; Bonier, F; Martin, P R
2015-10-22
Climatic selective pressures are thought to dominate biotic selective pressures at higher latitudes. However, few studies have experimentally tested how these selective pressures differentially act on traits across latitudes because traits can rarely be manipulated independently of the organism in nature. We overcame this challenge by using an extended phenotype-active bird nests-and conducted reciprocal transplant experiments between a subarctic and temperate site, separated by 14° of latitude. At the subarctic site, biotic selective pressures (nest predation) favoured smaller, non-local temperate nests, whereas climatic selective pressures (temperature) favoured larger local nests, particularly at colder temperatures. By contrast, at the temperate site, climatic and biotic selective pressures acted similarly on temperate and subarctic nests. Our results illustrate a functional trade-off in the subarctic between nest morphologies favoured by biotic versus climatic selective pressures, with climate favouring local nest morphologies. At our temperate site, however, allocative trade-offs in the time and effort devoted to nest construction favour smaller, local nests. Our findings illustrate a conflict between biotic and climatic selective pressures at the northern extremes of a species geographical range, and suggest that trade-offs between trait function and trait elaboration act differentially across latitude to create broad geographic variation in traits. © 2015 The Author(s).
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Rohwer, V. G.; Bonier, F.; Martin, P. R.
2015-01-01
Climatic selective pressures are thought to dominate biotic selective pressures at higher latitudes. However, few studies have experimentally tested how these selective pressures differentially act on traits across latitudes because traits can rarely be manipulated independently of the organism in nature. We overcame this challenge by using an extended phenotype—active bird nests—and conducted reciprocal transplant experiments between a subarctic and temperate site, separated by 14° of latitude. At the subarctic site, biotic selective pressures (nest predation) favoured smaller, non-local temperate nests, whereas climatic selective pressures (temperature) favoured larger local nests, particularly at colder temperatures. By contrast, at the temperate site, climatic and biotic selective pressures acted similarly on temperate and subarctic nests. Our results illustrate a functional trade-off in the subarctic between nest morphologies favoured by biotic versus climatic selective pressures, with climate favouring local nest morphologies. At our temperate site, however, allocative trade-offs in the time and effort devoted to nest construction favour smaller, local nests. Our findings illustrate a conflict between biotic and climatic selective pressures at the northern extremes of a species geographical range, and suggest that trade-offs between trait function and trait elaboration act differentially across latitude to create broad geographic variation in traits. PMID:26490789
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Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo
2012-01-01
Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.
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Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Parker, John D; Cook-Patton, Susan C; Feller, Ilka C; Williams, A Park; Kellner, James R
2015-05-01
Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr(-1) over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Canziani, Pablo O.; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo
2012-01-01
Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia. PMID:22645487
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The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich
2016-04-01
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.
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Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of Climate change and air pollution.
D'Amato, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; De Martino, Annamaria; Viegi, Giovanni; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; D'Amato, Maria
2015-01-01
The major changes to our world are those involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, with impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate changes on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, like meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy, mainly in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could be also considered an effect of air pollution and climate changes. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last five decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. Scientific societies should be involved in advocacy activities, such as those realized by the Global Alliance against chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elarusi, Abdulmunaem; Attar, Alaa; Lee, HoSung
2018-02-01
The optimum design of a thermoelectric system for application in car seat climate control has been modeled and its performance evaluated experimentally. The optimum design of the thermoelectric device combining two heat exchangers was obtained by using a newly developed optimization method based on the dimensional technique. Based on the analytical optimum design results, commercial thermoelectric cooler and heat sinks were selected to design and construct the climate control heat pump. This work focuses on testing the system performance in both cooling and heating modes to ensure accurate analytical modeling. Although the analytical performance was calculated using the simple ideal thermoelectric equations with effective thermoelectric material properties, it showed very good agreement with experiment for most operating conditions.
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Hare, Jonathan A.; Wuenschel, Mark J.; Kimball, Matthew E.
2012-01-01
We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. PMID:23284974
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Numerical modeling and experimental investigation of the local hydrology of a porous concrete site.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2011-10-01
Although porous pavement use has been accepted as a successful stormwater management practice in warm climates, application in regions with colder climates, like New England, is still under investigation. The Randolph Park and Ride Site, which is the...
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Catchment hydro-biogeochemical response to climate change and future land-use
The potential interacting effects of climate change and future land-use on hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics rarely have been described at the catchment level and are difficult or impossible to capture through experimentation or observation alone. We apply a new model, Vi...
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Place in Pacific Islands Climate Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barros, C.; Koh, M. W.
2015-12-01
Understanding place, including both the environment and its people, is essential to understanding our climate, climate change, and its impacts. For us to develop a sense of our place, we need to engage in multiple ways of learning: observation, experimentation, and opportunities to apply new knowledge (Orr, 1992). This approach allows us to access different sources of knowledge and then create local solutions for local issues. It is especially powerful when we rely on experts and elders in our own community along with information from the global community.The Pacific islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) is a collaboration of partners—school systems, nongovernmental organizations, and government agencies—working to support learning and teaching about climate in the Pacific. Since 2009, PCEP partners have been working together to develop and implement classroom resources, curriculum standards, and teacher professional learning opportunities in which learners approach climate change and its impacts first through the lens of their own place. Such an approach to putting place central to teaching and learning about climate requires partnership and opportunities for learners to explore solutions for and with their communities. In this presentation, we will share the work unfolding in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) as one example of PCEP's approach to place-based climate education. Three weeklong K-12 teacher professional learning workshops took place during June-July 2015 in Majuro, RMI on learning gardens, climate science, and project-based learning. Each workshop was co-taught with local partners and supports educators in teaching climate-related curriculum standards through tasks that can foster sense of place through observation, experimentation, and application of new knowledge. Additionally, we will also share PCEP's next steps in place-based climate education, specifically around emerging conversations about the importance of highlighting stories of place to generate local solutions for local issues, as well as further global awareness about climate change impacts in the Pacific.
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NASA and the U.S. climate program - A problem in data management
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Quann, J. J.
1978-01-01
NASA's contribution to the total data base for the National Climate Plan will be to produce climate data sets from its experimental space observing systems and to maximize the value of these data for climate analysis and prediction. Validated data sets will be provided to NOAA for inclusion into their overall diagnostic data base. NASA data management for the Climate Plan will involve: (1) cataloging and retrieval of large integrated and distributed data sets upon user demand, and (2) the storage equivalent of 100,000 digital data tapes. It will be the largest, most complex data system ever developed by NASA
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Optimization of Water Management of Cranberry Fields under Current and Future Climate Conditions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Létourneau, G.; Gumiere, S.; Mailhot, E.; Rousseau, A. N.
2016-12-01
In North America, cranberry production is on the rise. Since 2005, land area dedicated to cranberry doubled, principally in Canada. Recent studies have shown that sub-irrigation could lead to improvements in yield, water use efficiency and pumping energy requirements compared to conventional sprinkler irrigation. However, the experimental determination of the optimal water table level of each production site may be expensiveand time-consuming. The primary objective of this study is to optimize the water table level as a function of typical soil properties, and climatic conditions observed in major production areas using a numerical modeling approach. The second objective is to evaluate the impacts of projected climatic conditions on water management of cranberry fields. To that end, cranberry-specific management operations such as harvest flooding, rapid drainage following heavy rainfall, or hydric stress management during dry weather conditions were simulated with the HYDRUS 2D software. Results have shown that maintaining the water table approximately at 60 cm provides optimal results for most of the studied soils. However, under certain extreme climatic conditions, the drainage system design may not allow maintaining optimal hydric conditions for cranberry growth. The long-term benefit of this study has potential to advance the design of drainage/sub-irrigation systems.
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Brian L. Brookshire; Stephen R., eds. Shifley
1997-01-01
Describes the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Projects (MOFEP) that was initiated in 1991 in southeastern Missouri. Describes in detail the coordinated research studies examining vegetation dynamics, down wood, fungi, birds, small mammals, herpetofauna, invertebrates, and genetics. Soils, geolandforms, ecological landtypes, and climate at the sites are described....
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
George, Linda A.; Brenner, Johanna
2010-01-01
The authors have developed and implemented a novel general education science course that examines scientific knowledge, laboratory experimentation, and science-related public policy through the lens of feminist science studies. They argue that this approach to teaching general science education is useful for improving science literacy. Goals for…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Abós, Ángel; Sevil, Javier; Julián, José Antonio; Abarca-Sos, Alberto; García-González, Luis
2017-01-01
Grounded in self-determination theory and achievement goal theory, this quasi-experimental study evaluated the effectiveness of a teaching intervention programme to improve predisposition towards physical education based on developing a task-oriented motivational climate and supporting basic psychological needs. The final sample consisted of 35…
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Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan
2013-09-01
Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Telemeco, Rory S; Fletcher, Brooke; Levy, Ofir; Riley, Angela; Rodriguez-Sanchez, Yesenia; Smith, Colton; Teague, Collin; Waters, Amanda; Angilletta, Michael J; Buckley, Lauren B
2017-03-01
Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.
Shaw, Ruth G; Etterson, Julie R
2012-09-01
Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.
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Artificial warming of arctic meadow under pollution stress: Experimental design
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Boreal and arctic terrestrial ecosystems are central to the climate change debate, notably because future warming is expected to be disproportionate as compared to world averages. Likewise, greenhouse gas (GHG) release from terrestrial ecosystems exposed to climate warming is expected to be the larg...
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Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R
2018-01-01
Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia.
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Charles G. Curtin
2005-01-01
This work is undertaken as a portion of long-term large-scale studies developed to determine how climate and disturbance (primarily fire and grazing) interact to structure desert grasslands. The results presented here are the initial grazing portions of the study. The analysis presented here indicates that following the reintroduction of cattle to the research area in...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sezen-Barrie, A.; Wolfson, J.
2015-12-01
An important goal of science education is to support development of citizens to participate in public debate and make informed decisions relevant to their lives and their worlds. The NGSS (Next Generation Science Standards) suggest engaging students in science classrooms in argumentation as a practice to help enhance the quality of evidence based decision making. In this multi-case study, we explored the use of written argumentation in eight secondary school science classrooms during a lesson on the relationship between ocean temperature and its CO2 holding capacity. All teachers of these classrooms were trained during a day long NSF funded Climate Literacy Workshop on the basic concepts of climate science, scientific practices and implementation of an activity called "It's a Gassy World". The data of the current study involved students' written arguments, teachers' written reflections on the implementation of the activity as well as field notes from the Climate Literacy Workshop. A qualitative discourse analysis of the data was used to find common themes around affordances and challenges of argument as a connective discourse for scientific practices to teach climate change. The findings show that participating in written argumentation process encouraged students to discuss their experimental design and use data interpretation for their evidences. However, the results also indicated the following challenges: a) teachers themselves need support in connecting their evidence to their claims, b) arguing a socioscientific issue creates a sensitive environment c) conceptual quality of an argument needs to be strengthen through background in courses other than science, and d) graphing skills (or lack of) can interfere with constructing scientifically accurate claims. This study has implications in effectively teaching climate change through argumentation, and thus creating opportunities for practicing authentic climate science research in K-12 classrooms.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pierazzo, E.
2005-01-01
The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.
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The Beginnings of Experimental Petrology
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Eugster, Hans P.
1971-01-01
An account of Van't Hoff's change from theoretical chemistry to petrology provides data on the European intellectual climate of the early 1900's and shows how his work laid the foundation for experimental petrology of hard rocks." (AL)
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schubert, Siegfried
2011-01-01
The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a number of experimental prediction and analysis products suitable for research and applications. The prediction products include a large suite of subseasonal and seasonal hindcasts and forecasts (as a contribution to the US National MME), a suite of decadal (10-year) hindcasts (as a contribution to the IPCC decadal prediction project), and a series of large ensemble and high resolution simulations of selected extreme events, including the 2010 Russian and 2011 US heat waves. The analysis products include an experimental atlas of climate (in particular drought) and weather extremes. This talk will provide an update on those activities, and discuss recent efforts by WCRP to leverage off these and similar efforts at other institutions throughout the world to develop an experimental global drought early warning system.
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Laura E. DeWald; Mary Frances Mahalovich
2008-01-01
Forest management will protect genetic integrity of tree species only if their genetic diversity is understood and considered in decision-making. Genetic knowledge is particularly important for species such as ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) that are distributed across wide geographic distances and types of climates. A ponderosa pine study initiated in...
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National Centers for Environmental Prediction
available at IMD Click here to go to the Special Report page Aug 2016 - IITM started experimental real-time Experimental version of GFS 10.0.0 ported to IITM & NCMRWF - February 2012 EnKF Hybrid GSI update - Spring diagnostics *Experimental* Climate Prediction Center (CPC) links... African Desk: SWFDP GFS forecasts South
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Third National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and climate program science review
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kreins, E. R. (Editor)
1977-01-01
Research results of developing experimental and prototype operational systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring, and understanding the atmosphere are reported. Major aspects include: (1) detection, monitoring, and prediction of severe storms; (2) improvement of global forecasting; and (3) monitoring and prediction of climate change.
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Global climate change could alter sea-level and salinity dynamics in Pacific Northwest estuaries. We combined survey and experimental approaches to better understand potential climate change effects on the future of tidal wetland primary producers in the region. Surveys conducte...
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Mirman, Jessica H; Roche, Brianne; Higgins-D'Alessandro, Ann
2018-06-21
The aims of this study were to extend the current literature on school climate that is focused on understanding how teacher, administrator, and student perceptions about driving-focused aspects of the social, educational, and institutional climate of schools can affect students' achievement, behavior, and adjustment towards the development of the concept of school safe driving climate (SSDC) and initiate the development of tools and processes for assessing SSDC. A mixed-methods approach was used to develop an initial version of a survey-based measure of SSDC that involved self-report surveys (students) and in-depth interviews (teachers). Exploratory factor analytic procedures identified SSDC constructs and a regression framework was used to examine associations among SSDC constructs and self-reported driver behaviors. Qualitative data were subjected to inductive analysis, with a goal of elucidating teachers' perspectives on SSDC and an SSDC intervention. The study sample consisted of 947 adolescents (48% male) from one large high school and 44 teacher advisors. Participants were recruited from a school participating in a state-wide effort to promote transportation safety through peer-led programming. Two SSDC factors were identified: Administrative Contributions to School Safety and Value of School Safety, which were associated with adolescents' perceptions of their driving behaviors. Adolescents' perceived that the intervention affected administrative safety. Teacher interviews contextualized these results and provided guidance on program revisions. Safe driving climate may be an important, modifiable, and measurable aspect of school climate. Additional research is needed to refine the assessment tool and to use it in longitudinal and experimental studies.
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Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.
Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui
2018-02-01
Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Crop responses to climatic variation
Porter, John R; Semenov, Mikhail A
2005-01-01
The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution. This paper demonstrates the impacts of climate variability for crop production in a number of crops. Increasing temperature and precipitation variability increases the risks to yield, as shown via computer simulation and experimental studies. The issue of food quality has not been given sufficient importance when assessing the impact of climate change for food and this is addressed. Using simulation models of wheat, the concentration of grain protein is shown to respond to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation events. The paper concludes with discussion of adaptation possibilities for crops in response to drought and argues that characters that enable better exploration of the soil and slower leaf canopy expansion could lead to crop higher transpiration efficiency. PMID:16433091
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Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events.
Bailey, Liam D; van de Pol, Martijn
2016-01-01
Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies - though few on animals - suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited by a lack of cohesiveness and structure. ECEs are often poorly defined and have often been confusingly equated with climatic variability, making comparison between studies difficult. In addition, a focus on short-term studies has provided us with little information on the long-term implications of ECEs, and the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many studies has meant it is still unclear what the key research questions are. Synthesizing the current state of work is essential to identify ways to make progress. We conduct a synthesis of the literature and discuss conceptual and practical challenges faced by research on ECEs. We consider three steps to advance research. First, we discuss the importance of choosing an ECE definition and identify the pros and cons of 'climatological' and 'biological' definitions of ECEs. Secondly, we advocate research beyond short-term descriptive studies to address questions concerning the long-term implications of ECEs, focussing on selective pressures and phenotypically plastic responses and how they might differ from responses to a changing climatic mean. Finally, we encourage a greater focus on multi-event studies that help us understand the implications of changing patterns of ECEs, through the combined use of modelling, experimental and observational field studies. This study aims to open a discussion on the definitions, questions and methods currently used to study ECEs, which will lead to a more cohesive approach to future ECE research. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel A.; Cerdà, Artemi; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.
2014-05-01
Since 1990s, the climatic transect approach has been widely applied to Mediterranean mountainous areas where climatic conditions are modified in few kilometres, from semiarid to humid conditions. The target in most of the cases was to evaluate the climatic change effect on the spatial variability of eco-geomorphological system, runoff and erosion and soil degradation processes, especially, in abandoned fields and Mediterranean rangeland. The Physical Geography and Land Management Research Group from the University of Málaga is applying this experimental approach since 2001. The study area corresponded to the Mediterranean Cordillera Bética in South of Spain, from the Strait of Gibraltar to Cabo de Gata, where a longitudinal climatic transect can be observed: from humid Mediterranean climate in the West (>1,500 mm/y) to nearly arid Mediterranean climate in the East (200 mm/y). More specifically, the investigations were focussed on the spatial and temporal variability of eco-geomorphological system (vegetation, soil and water relationship), runoff and erosion processes and controlling factors affecting to abandoned fields located in steep hillslopes of metamorphic and acid bedrocks (phyllites, schists and mica-schists) but differing in climatic conditions (humid, subhumid, dry and semiarid Mediterranean climate). The aim of this contribution is to share our findings and challenges from the last 13 years being some of the most important ones: i) Mediterranean summer drought homogenise the functioning of eco-geomorphological system independently of the geographical location along the climatic transect; ii) drought period affects more dramatically to humid and subhumid Mediterranean areas, especially, to the vegetation cover and pattern; iii) areas characterised by dry-Mediterranean climate are found as threshold areas and in risk of aridification due to Climate Change; iv) runoff and erosion processes can be similar in humid and semiarid abandoned lands as it has to be taken into account local factors, such as exposure, repellency of soils to water and, especially, soil surface conditions. Further researches follow the transect approach but being applying to areas affected by recent and old fires in order to assess the effects of climate in the post-fire recovery of Mediterranean eco-geomorphological system and erosion processes.
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Laboratory experiments of heat and moisture fluxes through supraglacial debris
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nicholson, Lindsey; Mayer, Christoph; Wirbel, Anna
2014-05-01
Inspired by earlier work (Reznichenko et al., 2010), we have carried out experiments within a climate chamber to explore the best ways to measure the heat and moisture fluxes through supraglacial debris. Sample ice blocks were prepared with debris cover of varying lithology, grain size and thickness and were instrumented with a combination of Gemini TinyTag temperature/relative humidity sensors and Decagon soil moisture sensors in order to monitor the heat and moisture fluxes through the overlying debris material when the experiment is exposed to specified solar lamp radiation and laminar airflow within the temperature-controlled climate chamber. Experimental results can be used to determine the optimal set up for numerical models of heat and moisture flux through supraglacial debris and also indicate the performance limitations of such sensors that can be expected in field installations. Reznichenko, N., Davies, T., Shulmeister, J. and McSaveney, M. (2010) Effects of debris on ice-surface melting rates: an experimental study. Journal of Glaciology, Volume 56, Number 197, 384-394.
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Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy
Pawankar, Ruby; Vitale, Carolina; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Stanziola, Anna; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; D'Amato, Maria
2016-01-01
A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, have impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens, and air pollution. Urbanization with its high levels of vehicle emissions, and a westernized lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases and bronchial asthma observed over recent decades in most industrialized countries. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in the general population and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could also be an effect of air pollution and climate change. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last 5 decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the relationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases, such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions, and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy prevalently in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc.) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. PMID:27334776
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Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy.
D'Amato, Gennaro; Pawankar, Ruby; Vitale, Carolina; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Stanziola, Anna; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; D'Amato, Maria
2016-09-01
A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, have impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens, and air pollution. Urbanization with its high levels of vehicle emissions, and a westernized lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases and bronchial asthma observed over recent decades in most industrialized countries. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in the general population and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could also be an effect of air pollution and climate change. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last 5 decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the relationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases, such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions, and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy prevalently in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc.) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction.
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Gavazov, Konstantin; Spiegelberger, Thomas; Buttler, Alexandre
2014-04-01
Climate change could impact strongly on cold-adapted mountain ecosystems, but little is known about its interaction with traditional land-use practices. We used an altitudinal gradient to simulate a year-round warmer and drier climate for semi-natural subalpine grasslands across a landscape of contrasting land-use management. Turf mesocosms from three pasture-woodland land-use types-unwooded pasture, sparsely wooded pasture, and densely wooded pasture-spanning a gradient from high to low management intensity were transplanted downslope to test their resistance to two intensities of climate change. We found strong overall effects of intensive (+4 K) experimental climate change (i.e., warming and reduced precipitation) on plant community structure and function, while moderate (+2 K) climate change did not substantially affect the studied land-use types, thus indicating an ecosystem response threshold to moderate climate perturbation. The individual land-use types were affected differently under the +4 K scenario, with a 60% decrease in aboveground biomass (AGB) in unwooded pasture turfs, a 40% decrease in sparsely wooded pasture turfs, and none in densely wooded ones. Similarly, unwooded pasture turfs experienced a 30% loss of species, advanced (by 30 days) phenological development, and a mid-season senescence due to drought stress, while no such effects were recorded for the other land-use types. The observed contrasting effects of climate change across the pasture-woodland landscape have important implications for future decades. The reduced impact of climate change on wooded pastures as compared to unwooded ones should promote the sustainable land use of wooded pastures by maintaining low management intensity and a sparse forest canopy, which buffer the immediate impacts of climate change on herbaceous vegetation.
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Plant-pollinator interactions under climate change: The use of spatial and temporal transplants.
Morton, Eva M; Rafferty, Nicole E
2017-06-01
Climate change is affecting both the timing of life history events and the spatial distributions of many species, including plants and pollinators. Shifts in phenology and range affect not only individual plant and pollinator species but also interactions among them, with possible negative consequences for both parties due to unfavorable abiotic conditions or mismatches caused by differences in shift magnitude or direction. Ultimately, population extinctions and reductions in pollination services could occur as a result of these climate change-induced shifts, or plants and pollinators could be buffered by plastic or genetic responses or novel interactions. Either scenario will likely involve altered selection pressures, making an understanding of plasticity and local adaptation in space and time especially important. In this review, we discuss two methods for studying plant-pollinator interactions under climate change: spatial and temporal transplants, both of which offer insight into whether plants and pollinators will be able to adapt to novel conditions. We discuss the advantages and limitations of each method and the future possibilities for this area of study. We advocate for consideration of how joint shifts in both dimensions might affect plant-pollinator interactions and point to key insights that can be gained with experimental transplants.
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García L., Juan Carlos; Posada-Suárez, Húver; Läderach, Peter
2014-01-01
The Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) conducted an agro-ecological zoning study based on climate, soil, and terrain of the Colombian coffee-growing regions (CCGR) located in the tropics, between 1° and 11.5° N, in areas of complex topography. To support this study, a climate baseline was constructed at a spatial resolution of 5 km. Twenty-one bioclimatic indicators were drawn from this baseline data and from yield data for different coffee genotypes evaluated under conditions at eight experimental stations (ESs) belonging to the National Center for Coffee Research (CENICAFÉ). Three topographic indicators were obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM). Zoning at a national level resulted in the differentiation of 12 agro-climatic zones. Altitude notably influenced zone differentiation, however other factors such as large air currents, low-pressure atmospheric systems, valleys of the great rivers, and physiography also played an important role. The strategy of zoning according to coffee-growing conditions will enable areas with the greatest potential for the development of coffee cultivation to be identified, criteria for future research to be generated, and the level of technology implementation to be assessed. PMID:25436456
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García L, Juan Carlos; Posada-Suárez, Húver; Läderach, Peter
2014-01-01
The Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) conducted an agro-ecological zoning study based on climate, soil, and terrain of the Colombian coffee-growing regions (CCGR) located in the tropics, between 1° and 11.5° N, in areas of complex topography. To support this study, a climate baseline was constructed at a spatial resolution of 5 km. Twenty-one bioclimatic indicators were drawn from this baseline data and from yield data for different coffee genotypes evaluated under conditions at eight experimental stations (ESs) belonging to the National Center for Coffee Research (CENICAFÉ). Three topographic indicators were obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM). Zoning at a national level resulted in the differentiation of 12 agro-climatic zones. Altitude notably influenced zone differentiation, however other factors such as large air currents, low-pressure atmospheric systems, valleys of the great rivers, and physiography also played an important role. The strategy of zoning according to coffee-growing conditions will enable areas with the greatest potential for the development of coffee cultivation to be identified, criteria for future research to be generated, and the level of technology implementation to be assessed.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lamare, Maxim; Hedley, John; King, Martin
2016-04-01
Knowledge of the albedo in the cryosphere is essential to monitor a range of climatic processes that have an impact on a global scale. Optical Earth Observation satellites are ideal for the synoptic observation of expansive and inaccessible areas, providing large datasets used to derive essential products, such as albedo. The application of remote sensing to investigate climate processes requires the combination of data from different sensors. However, although there is significant value in the analysis of data from individual sensors, global observing systems require accurate knowledge of sensor-to-sensor biases. Therefore, the inter-calibration of sensors used for climate studies is essential to avoid inconsistencies, which may mask climate effects. CEOS (Committee on Earth Observing Satellites) has established a number of natural Earth targets to serve as international reference standards, amongst which sea ice has great potential. The reflectance of natural surfaces is not isotropic and reflectance varies with the illumination and viewing geometries, consequently impacting satellite observations. Furthermore, variations in the physical properties (sea ice type, thickness) and the light absorbing impurities deposited in the sea ice have a strong impact on reflectance. Thus, the characterisation of the bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of sea ice is a fundamental step toward the inter-calibration of optical satellite sensors. This study provides a characterisation of the effects of mineral aerosol and black carbon deposits on the BRDF of three different sea ice types. BRDF measurements were performed on bare sea ice grown in an experimental ice tank, using a state-of-the-art laboratory goniometer. The sea ice was "poisoned" with concentrations of mineral dust and black carbon varying between 100 and 5 000 ng g-1 deposited uniformly in a 5 cm surface layer. Using measurements from the experimental facility, novel information about sea ice BRDF as a function of sea ice type, thickness and light-absorbing impurities was derived using a radiative-transfer model (PlanarRad). This extensive characterisation of the multi angular reflectance of sea ice reveals the importance of BRDF for the validation and calibration of Earth Observation satellite sensor data.
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Pangle, Luke A.; DeLong, Stephen B.; Abramson, Nate; Adams, John; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Breshears, David D.; Brooks, Paul D.; Chorover, Jon; Dietrich, William E.; Dontsova, Katerina; Durcik, Matej; Espeleta, Javier; Ferré, T.P.A.; Ferriere, Regis; Henderson, Whitney; Hunt, Edward A.; Huxman, Travis E.; Millar, David; Murphy, Brendan; Niu, Guo-Yue; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitch; Pelletier, Jon D.; Rasmussen, Craig; Ruiz, Joaquin; Saleska, Scott; Schaap, Marcel; Sibayan, Michael; Troch, Peter A.; Tuller, Markus; van Haren, Joost; Zeng, Xubin
2015-01-01
Zero-order drainage basins, and their constituent hillslopes, are the fundamental geomorphic unit comprising much of Earth's uplands. The convergent topography of these landscapes generates spatially variable substrate and moisture content, facilitating biological diversity and influencing how the landscape filters precipitation and sequesters atmospheric carbon dioxide. In light of these significant ecosystem services, refining our understanding of how these functions are affected by landscape evolution, weather variability, and long-term climate change is imperative. In this paper we introduce the Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO): a large-scale controllable infrastructure consisting of three replicated artificial landscapes (each 330 m2 surface area) within the climate-controlled Biosphere 2 facility in Arizona, USA. At LEO, experimental manipulation of rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed are possible at unprecedented scale. The Landscape Evolution Observatory was designed as a community resource to advance understanding of how topography, physical and chemical properties of soil, and biological communities coevolve, and how this coevolution affects water, carbon, and energy cycles at multiple spatial scales. With well-defined boundary conditions and an extensive network of sensors and samplers, LEO enables an iterative scientific approach that includes numerical model development and virtual experimentation, physical experimentation, data analysis, and model refinement. We plan to engage the broader scientific community through public dissemination of data from LEO, collaborative experimental design, and community-based model development.
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Climate change effects on above- and below-ground interactions in a dryland ecosystem.
González-Megías, Adela; Menéndez, Rosa
2012-11-19
Individual species respond to climate change by altering their abundance, distribution and phenology. Less is known, however, about how climate change affects multitrophic interactions, and its consequences for food-web dynamics. Here, we investigate the effect of future changes in rainfall patterns on detritivore-plant-herbivore interactions in a semiarid region in southern Spain by experimentally manipulating rainfall intensity and frequency during late spring-early summer. Our results show that rain intensity changes the effect of below-ground detritivores on both plant traits and above-ground herbivore abundance. Enhanced rain altered the interaction between detritivores and plants affecting flower and fruit production, and also had a direct effect on fruit and seed set. Despite this finding, there was no net effect on plant reproductive output. This finding supports the idea that plants will be less affected by climatic changes than by other trophic levels. Enhanced rain also affected the interaction between detritivores and free-living herbivores. The effect, however, was apparent only for generalist and not for specialist herbivores, demonstrating a differential response to climate change within the same trophic level. The complex responses found in this study suggest that future climate change will affect trophic levels and their interactions differentially, making extrapolation from individual species' responses and from one ecosystem to another very difficult.
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Glisson, Charles; Dukes, Denzel; Green, Philip
2006-08-01
This study examines the effects of the Availability, Responsiveness, and Continuity (ARC) organizational intervention strategy on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in a child welfare and juvenile justice system. Using a pre-post, randomized blocks, true experimental design, 10 urban and 16 rural case management teams were randomly assigned to either the ARC organizational intervention condition or to a control condition. The culture and climate of each case management team were assessed at baseline and again after the one-year organizational intervention was completed. In addition, caseworker turnover was assessed by identifying caseworkers on the sampled teams who quit their jobs during the year. Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM) analyses indicate that the ARC organizational intervention reduced the probability of caseworker turnover by two-thirds and improved organizational climate by reducing role conflict, role overload, emotional exhaustion, and depersonalization in both urban and rural case management teams. Organizational intervention strategies can be used to reduce staff turnover and improve organizational climates in urban and rural child welfare and juvenile justice systems. This is important because child welfare and juvenile justice systems in the U.S.A. are plagued by high turnover rates, and there is evidence that high staff turnover and poor organizational climates negatively affect service quality and outcomes in these systems.
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Koohestani, Hamid Reza; Baghcheghi, Nayereh
2016-01-01
Background: Team-based learning is a structured type of cooperative learning that is becoming increasingly more popular in nursing education. This study compares levels of nursing students' perception of the psychosocial climate of the classroom between conventional lecture group and team-based learning group. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study with pretest-posttest design 38 nursing students of second year participated. One half of the 16 sessions of cardiovascular disease nursing course sessions was taught by lectures and the second half with team-based learning. The modified college and university classroom environment inventory (CUCEI) was used to measure the perception of classroom environment. This was completed after the final lecture and TBL sessions. Results: Results revealed a significant difference in the mean scores of psycho-social climate for the TBL method (Mean (SD): 179.8(8.27)) versus the mean score for the lecture method (Mean (SD): 154.213.44)). Also, the results showed significant differences between the two groups in the innovation (p<0.001), student cohesiveness (p=0.01), cooperation (p<0.001) and equity (p= 0.03) sub-scales scores (p<0.05). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that team-based learning does have a positive effect on nursing students' perceptions of their psycho-social climate of the classroom.
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Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.
2012-01-01
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
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Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.;
2012-01-01
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
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Experimental forest watershed studies contribution to the effect of disturbances on water quality
Daniel G. Neary
2012-01-01
The most sustainable and best quality fresh water sources in the world originate in forested watersheds (Dissmeyer 2000, Brooks et al. 2003, Barten and Ernst 2004). The biological, chemical, and physical characteristics of forest soils are particularly well suited to delivering high quality water to streams, and moderating the climatic extremes which affect stream...
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Chadwick A. Moore; Ward W. McCaughey
1997-01-01
Snow accumulation in forested watersheds is controlled by climate, elevation, topographic factors and vegetation structure. Conifers affect snow accumulation principally by intercepting snow with the canopy which may later be sublimated. Various tree, stand, species and canopy densities of a subalpine fir habitat (ALBANASC) in central Montana were studied to determine...
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Laura E. DeWald; Mary Frances Mahalovich
2008-01-01
Forest management will protect genetic integrity of tree species only if their genetic diversity is understood and considered in decision-making. Genetic knowledge is particularly important for species such as ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) that are distributed across wide geographic distances and types of climates. A ponderosa pine...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vinagre, Catarina; Madeira, Diana; Narciso, Luís; Cabral, Henrique N.; Diniz, Mário S.
2012-08-01
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of handling, confinement and crowding on HSP70 production in an intertidal crab. HSP70 has been widely used as a biochemical indicator of thermal stress; however studies on the effect of experimental conditions and handling on HSP70 expression are very scarce. The response of marbled crab, Pachygrapsus marmoratus, collected in the Portuguese coast, was investigated through an experiment in captivity, where 42 juveniles (10-19 mm of carapace width) were confined in an experimental container (60 × 42 × 10 cm) and exposed to three treatments: 1) increasing temperatures and periodic handling, 2) only to periodic handling and 3) no handling, for 12 h. The objective of this work was to investigate whether the HSP70 production measured in an increasing temperature experiment is a response to temperature alone or whether manipulation, confinement and crowding during the experiment also increase HSP70 production. Three individuals were sampled after t = 0, t = 4, t = 6, t = 8, t = 10 and t = 12 h, for the quantification of HSP70 production in the hemolymph, in the three trials. It was concluded that while temperature has a significant effect on HSP70 production, periodic handling does not, nor does confinement to the experimental container or crowding. It can thus be concluded that experimental conditions and handling are not parasitic variables in experiments with this species considering increasing temperatures. P. marmoratus can thus be used as a model species in climate warming experiments involving handling, confinement and crowding.
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Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results
Stocker, Thomas
2018-05-18
The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.
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Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change
Brown, Carissa D.; Vellend, Mark
2014-01-01
We are limited in our ability to predict climate-change-induced range shifts by our inadequate understanding of how non-climatic factors contribute to determining range limits along putatively climatic gradients. Here, we present a unique combination of observations and experiments demonstrating that seed predation and soil properties strongly limit regeneration beyond the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple, a tree species of major economic importance. Most strikingly, regeneration beyond the range limit occurred almost exclusively when seeds were experimentally protected from predators. Regeneration from seed was depressed on soil from beyond the range edge when this soil was transplanted to sites within the range, with indirect evidence suggesting that fungal pathogens play a role. Non-climatic factors are clearly in need of careful attention when attempting to predict the biotic consequences of climate change. At minimum, we can expect non-climatic factors to create substantial time lags between the creation of more favourable climatic conditions and range expansion. PMID:25253462
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pourmokhtarian, A.; Becknell, J. M.; Hall, J.; Desai, A. R.; Boring, L. R.; Duffy, P.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Starr, G.; Dietze, M.
2014-12-01
A wide array of human-induced disturbances can alter the structure and function of forests, including climate change, disturbance and management. While there have been numerous studies on climate change impacts on forests, interactions of management with changing climate and natural disturbance are poorly studied. Forecasts of the range of plausible responses of forests to climate change and management are need for informed decision making on new management approaches under changing climate, as well as adaptation strategies for coming decades. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate and assess simultaneous responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic perturbations and management across multiple spatio-temporal scales, but currently do not represent a wide array of management activities known to impact carbon, water, surface energy fluxes, and biodiversity. The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) incorporates non-linear impacts of fine-scale (~10-1 km) heterogeneity in ecosystem structure both horizontally and vertically at a plant level. Therefore it is an ideal candidate to incorporate different forest management practices and test various hypotheses under changing climate and across various spatial scales. The management practices that we implemented were: clear-cut, conversion, planting, partial harvest, low intensity fire, restoration, salvage, and herbicide. The results were validated against observed data across 8 different sites in the U.S. Southeast (Duke Forest, Joseph Jones Ecological Research Center, North Carolina Loblolly Pine, and Ordway-Swisher Biological Station) and Pacific Northwest (Metolius Research Natural Area, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Wind River Field Station, and Mount Rainier National Park). These sites differ in regards to climate, vegetation, soil, and historical land disturbance as well as management approaches. Results showed that different management practices could successfully and realistically be implemented in the ED2 model at a site level. Moreover, sensitivity analyses determined the most important processes at different spatial scales, and also those which could be ignored while minimizing overall error.
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D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; D'Amato, Gennaro; Cecchi, Lorenzo
2016-01-01
Climate change, air pollution, temperature increase and other environmental variables are modifying air quality, contributing to the increase of prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases. Allergies are complex diseases characterized by multilevel interactions between individual susceptibility, response to immune modulation and environmental exposures to physical, chemical and biological agents. Occupational allergies introduce a further complexity to these relationships by adding occupational exposure to both the indoor and outdoor ones in the living environment. The aim of this paper is to overview climate-related allergy affecting environmental and occupational health, as literature data are scanty in this regard, and to suggest a management model of this risk based on a multidisciplinary approach, taking the case of biological pollution, with details on exposure and prevention. The management of climate-related occupational allergy should take into account preventive health strategies, environmental, public and occupational interventions, as well as to develop, implement, evaluate, and improve guidelines and standards protecting workers health under changing climatic conditions; new tools and strategies based on local conditions will have to be developed. Experimental studies and acquisition of environmental and personal data have to be matched to derive useful information for the scope of occupational health and safety.
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Pinceel, Tom; Buschke, Falko; Weckx, Margo; Brendonck, Luc; Vanschoenwinkel, Bram
2018-01-24
Higher temperatures and increased environmental variability under climate change could jeopardize the persistence of species. Organisms that rely on short windows of rainfall to complete their life-cycles, like desert annual plants or temporary pool animals, may be particularly at risk. Although some could tolerate environmental changes by building-up banks of propagules (seeds or eggs) that buffer against catastrophes, climate change will threaten this resilience mechanism if higher temperatures reduce propagule survival. Using a crustacean model species from temporary waters, we quantified experimentally the survival and dormancy of propagules under anticipated climate change and used these demographic parameters to simulate long term population dynamics. By exposing propagules to present-day and projected daily temperature cycles in an 8 month laboratory experiment, we showed how increased temperatures reduce survival rates in the propagule bank. Integrating these reduced survival rates into population models demonstrated the inability of the bank to maintain populations; thereby exacerbating extinction risk caused by shortened growing seasons. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change could threaten the persistence of populations by both reducing habitat suitability and eroding life-history strategies that support demographic resilience.
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Stoks, Robby; Geerts, Aurora N; De Meester, Luc
2014-01-01
We integrated the evidence for evolutionary and plastic trait changes in situ in response to climate change in freshwater invertebrates (aquatic insects and zooplankton). The synthesis on the trait changes in response to the expected reductions in hydroperiod and increases in salinity indicated little evidence for adaptive, plastic, and genetic trait changes and for local adaptation. With respect to responses to temperature, there are many studies on temporal trait changes in phenology and body size in the wild that are believed to be driven by temperature increases, but there is a general lack of rigorous demonstration whether these trait changes are genetically based, adaptive, and causally driven by climate change. Current proof for genetic trait changes under climate change in freshwater invertebrates stems from a limited set of common garden experiments replicated in time. Experimental thermal evolution experiments and common garden warming experiments associated with space-for-time substitutions along latitudinal gradients indicate that besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity are likely to contribute to the observed phenotypic changes under climate change in aquatic invertebrates. Apart from plastic and genetic thermal adjustments, also genetic photoperiod adjustments are widespread and may even dominate the observed phenological shifts.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Drylands will experience more intense and frequent droughts and floods. Ten-year field experiments manipulating the amount and variability of precipitation suggest that we cannot predict responses of drylands to climate change based on pulse experimentation. Long-term drought experiments showed no e...
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Watershed hydrology. Chapter 7.
Elons S. Verry; Kenneth N. Brooks; Dale S. Nichols; Dawn R. Ferris; Stephen D. Sebestyen
2011-01-01
Watershed hydrology is determined by the local climate, land use, and pathways of water flow. At the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), streamflow is dominated by spring runoff events driven by snowmelt and spring rains common to the strongly continental climate of northern Minnesota. Snowmelt and rainfall in early spring saturate both mineral and organic soils and...
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Microclimatic performance of a free-air warming and CO2 enrichment experiment in windy Wyoming, USA
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
In order to predict and plan for global changing climate experiments are being conducted in many countries, but few have monitored the effects of the climate change treatments (warming, elevated CO2) on the ecologically critical experimental plot microclimate. During three years of an eight year stu...
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Increasing the relevance of GCM simulations for Climate Services
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, L. A.; Suckling, E.
2012-12-01
The design and interpretation of model simulations for climate services differ significantly from experimental design for the advancement of the fundamental research on predictability that underpins it. Climate services consider the sources of best information available today; this calls for a frank evaluation of model skill in the face of statistical benchmarks defined by empirical models. The fact that Physical simulation models are thought to provide the only reliable method for extrapolating into conditions not previously observed has no bearing on whether or not today's simulation models outperform empirical models. Evidence on the length scales on which today's simulation models fail to outperform empirical benchmarks is presented; it is illustrated that this occurs even on global scales in decadal prediction. At all timescales considered thus far (as of July 2012), predictions based on simulation models are improved by blending with the output of statistical models. Blending is shown to be more interesting in the climate context than it is in the weather context, where blending with a history-based climatology is straightforward. As GCMs improve and as the Earth's climate moves further from that of the last century, the skill from simulation models and their relevance to climate services is expected to increase. Examples from both seasonal and decadal forecasting will be used to discuss a third approach that may increase the role of current GCMs more quickly. Specifically, aspects of the experimental design in previous hind cast experiments are shown to hinder the use of GCM simulations for climate services. Alternative designs are proposed. The value in revisiting Thompson's classic approach to improving weather forecasting in the fifties in the context of climate services is discussed.
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Sciencetogo.Org: Using Humor to Engage a Public Audience with the Serious Issue of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.; Rabkin, D.; Wilson, R.
2014-12-01
A team of educators, scientists, and communication experts from multiple universities as well as a Science museum will report on the impact of ScienceToGo.org, which is an Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) exhibit targeting adults riding a major subway system. The campaign's goal is to design, implement, and study the efficacy of an OHMM model for free choice science learning about our changing climate. Subway riders represent a diverse and captive audience with most of them spending an average of one hour a day in the subway system. Through the use of specially designed OHMM such as train placards, platform posters, and virtual resources the campaign engages a potential audience of 500,000 riders/day with opportunities to learn climate change science informally. The primary goal of the ScienceToGo.org campaign is to engage, entertain, and educate the adult subway riding community in major U.S. city about climate change as a real, relevant, and solvable local challenge. A naturalistic quasi-experimental inquiry employing a mixed methodology approach best describes our research design with half of the subway system exposed to the project signage (experimental group) and the other half not being exposed to the project signage (control group). To identify possible outcomes, data was collected in the several forms: survey, analytic data associated with website, social media, web app, focus groups, and observations. This campaign is an example of how an individual's daily routine may be enhanced with an informal science learning opportunity. We see an urgent need to improve both the public's engagement with climate change science and to the profile of climate change science in formal education settings. The campaign makes deliberate use of humor and fun to engage a public and diverse audience with the serious issue of climate change. The research that will be presented will reveal some of the strengths and weaknesses of this strategy when communicating science to a diverse audience. Overall, the preponderance of evidence indicates that humor and fun are effective at engaging riders on mass transit. Mass transit spaces represent a promsing medium for further exploration and development when it comes to informal learning about climate change science.
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Smith, Robert J; Nelson, Peter R; Jovan, Sarah; Hanson, Paul J; McCune, Bruce
2018-02-01
Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined. We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long experiment featuring whole-ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures were located near the southern edge of the species' range. Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with atmospheric drying. Mean annual biomass growth was 14% in ambient treatments, 2% in unheated control treatments, and -9% to -19% (decreases) in energy-added treatments ranging from +2.25 to +9.00°C above ambient temperatures. Warming-induced biomass losses among persistent individuals were suggestive evidence of an extinction debt that could precede further local mortality events. Changing patterns of warming and drying would decrease or reverse Evernia growth at its southern range margins, with potential consequences for the maintenance of local and regional populations. Negative carbon balances among persisting individuals could physiologically commit these epiphytes to local extinction. Our findings illuminate the processes underlying local extinctions of epiphytes and suggest broader consequences for range shrinkage if dispersal and recruitment rates cannot keep pace. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.
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Locomotion in response to shifting climate zones: not so fast.
Feder, Martin E; Garland, Theodore; Marden, James H; Zera, Anthony J
2010-01-01
Although a species' locomotor capacity is suggestive of its ability to escape global climate change, such a suggestion is not necessarily straightforward. Species vary substantially in locomotor capacity, both ontogenetically and within/among populations, and much of this variation has a genetic basis. Accordingly, locomotor capacity can and does evolve rapidly, as selection experiments demonstrate. Importantly, even though this evolution of locomotor capacity may be rapid enough to escape changing climate, genetic correlations among traits (often due to pleiotropy) are such that successful or rapid dispersers are often limited in colonization or reproductive ability, which may be viewed as a trade-off. The nuanced assessment of this variation and evolution is reviewed for well-studied models: salmon, flying versus flightless insects, rodents undergoing experimental evolution, and metapopulations of butterflies. This work reveals how integration of physiology with population biology and functional genomics can be especially informative.
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Mind the wind: microclimate effects on incubation effort of an arctic seabird.
Høyvik Hilde, Christoffer; Pélabon, Christophe; Guéry, Loreleï; Gabrielsen, Geir Wing; Descamps, Sébastien
2016-04-01
The energetic costs of reproduction in birds strongly depend on the climate experienced during incubation. Climate change and increasing frequency of extreme weather events may severely affect these costs, especially for species incubating in extreme environments. In this 3-year study, we used an experimental approach to investigate the effects of microclimate and nest shelter on the incubation effort of female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in a wild Arctic population. We added artificial shelters to a random selection of nesting females, and compared incubation effort, measured as body mass loss during incubation, between females with and without shelter. Nonsheltered females had a higher incubation effort than females with artificial shelters. In nonsheltered females, higher wind speeds increased the incubation effort, while artificially sheltered females experienced no effect of wind. Although increasing ambient temperatures tended to decrease incubation effort, this effect was negligible in the absence of wind. Humidity had no marked effect on incubation effort. This study clearly displays the direct effect of a climatic variable on an important aspect of avian life-history. By showing that increasing wind speed counteracts the energetic benefits of a rising ambient temperature, we were able to demonstrate that a climatic variable other than temperature may also affect wild populations and need to be taken into account when predicting the effects of climate change.
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Climate change and evolutionary adaptation.
Hoffmann, Ary A; Sgrò, Carla M
2011-02-24
Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.
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Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J
2017-12-01
Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.
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Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.
Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T
2016-06-01
The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
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The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6
Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe; ...
2016-01-01
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Predictionmore » (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perrimond, B.; Bigot, S.; Quénol, H.; Spielgelberger, T.; Baudry, J.
2012-04-01
Climate and vegetation are linked all over the world. In this study, we work on a seasonal weather classification based on air temperature and precipitation to deduce a link with different phenological stage (greening up, senescence, ...) over a 12 year period (1998-2009) for two different domains in France (Alps and Brittany). In temperate land, the main climatic variable with a potential effect on vegetation is the mean temperature followed by the rainfall deficit. A better understanding in season and their climatic characteristic is need to establish link between climate and phenology; so a weather classification is proposed based on empirical orthogonal functions and ascending hierarchical classification on atmospheric variables. This classification allows us to exhibit the inter-annual and intra-seasonal climatic spatiotemporal variability for both experimental site. Relationships between climate and phenology consist in a comparison between advance and delay in phenological stage and weather type issue from the classification. Experiment field are two french Long Term Ecological Research (LTER). The first one (LTER 'Alps' ) have mountain characteristics about 1000 to 4780 m ASL, ~65% of forest occupation ; the second one (LTER Armorique) is an Atlantic coastal landscape, 0-360 m ASL, ~70% of agricultural field. Climatic data are SAFRAN-France reanalysis which are developed to run SVAT model and come from the French meteorological service 'Météo-France'. All atmospheric variable needed to run a hydrological model are available (air temperature, rainfall/snowfall, wind speed, relative humidity, incoming/outcoming radiation) at a 8-8 km2 space resolution and with a daily time resolution. The phenological data are extracted from SPOT-VGT product 1-1 km2 space resolution and 10 days time resolution) by time series analysis process. Such of study is particularly important to understand relationships between environmental and ecological variables and it will allow to better predict ecological reaction under climate change constraint.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Anguet, J.; Salles, Y.
The aim of the work is to apply the laminated glass technology used in buildings and car windscreens to the encapsulation of solar panels so as to form a glass-polyvinylbutyral-glass 'sandwich'. Based on small-scale experimental panels, the following studies were made: (1) adhesion techniques; (2) structure studies to find the most suitable means for maintaining the mechanical stability of the cells; (3) types of connections for the solar panels and (4) climatic tests and humidity resistance. Mechanical and climatic tests with the minimodules gave encouraging results, whereupon larger scale models were designed. The results obtained with these confirmed those obtainedmore » with the mini-modules.« less
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Experimental weekly to seasonal U.S. forecasts with the Regional Spectral Model
J. Roads
2004-01-01
As described previously Roads et al. 2001a, hereafter RCF), the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making routine, near-real-time, long-range experimental global and regional dynamical forecasts since 27 September 1997. The global spectral model (GSM) used for these forecasts is that of National Centers for Environmental Predictionâs (NCEP;...
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Goldberg, Louise F.; Harmon, Anna C.
2015-04-01
Thermal and moisture problems in existing basements create a unique challenge because the exterior face of the wall is not easily or inexpensively accessible. This approach addresses thermal and moisture management from the interior face of the wall without disturbing the exterior soil and landscaping. the interior and exterior environments. This approach has the potential for improving durability, comfort, and indoor air quality. This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes.more » NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lawrence, D. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Arneth, A.; Brovkin, V.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Jones, C.; Lawrence, P.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Pongratz, J.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Shevliakova, E.
2016-12-01
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the questions: (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy and (3) Are there regional land-management strategies with promise to help mitigate against climate change? LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. Foci will include separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land-use, the unique impacts of land-cover change versus land management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent that CO2 fertilization is modulated by past and future land use. LUMIP involves three sets of activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use dataset, (2) an experimental protocol for LUMIP experiments, and (3) definition of metrics that quantify model performance with respect to LULCC. LUMIP experiments are designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate. LUMIP also includes simulations that allow quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. We will present the experimental protocol in detail, explain the rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describe a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types).
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A. R. Rober; K. Wyatt; M. Turetsky; R. Stevenson
2013-01-01
Floristic studies indicate the abundance of microalgae in northern boreal peatlands, but we know relatively little about their ecology or how they will respond to changes in environmental conditions expected in this region as climate changes. We examined changes in algal community structure at sites exposed to a long-term water-table manipulation, including drought (...
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Response of stream salamanders to experimental drought in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA
Bryan Currinder; Kristen K. Cecala; Robert M. Northington; Michael E. Dorcas
2015-01-01
Droughts act as significant disturbances to freshwater animals and their ecosystems. Given the impending threat of more frequent and persistent droughts because of global climate change, the lack of data on the responses of many aquatic animals to drought is a cause for concern. This study examined the body condition of the most commonly detected species (
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Durability of exterior natural wood finishes in the Pacific Northwest
William C. Feist; Edward A. Mraz
1980-01-01
There is a growing demand for natural exterior wood finishes that retain the original attractive appearance of wood with the least change in color and masking of grain. A number of experimental finishes are being evaluated for their performance in the cool, moist climate of Olympia, Wash. This study, started in 1966, has included observations on the weathering...
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Simulation of Transcritical CO2 Refrigeration System with Booster Hot Gas Bypass in Tropical Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Santosa, I. D. M. C.; Sudirman; Waisnawa, IGNS; Sunu, PW; Temaja, IW
2018-01-01
A Simulation computer becomes significant important for performance analysis since there is high cost and time allocation to build an experimental rig, especially for CO2 refrigeration system. Besides, to modify the rig also need additional cos and time. One of computer program simulation that is very eligible to refrigeration system is Engineering Equation System (EES). In term of CO2 refrigeration system, environmental issues becomes priority on the refrigeration system development since the Carbon dioxide (CO2) is natural and clean refrigerant. This study aims is to analysis the EES simulation effectiveness to perform CO2 transcritical refrigeration system with booster hot gas bypass in high outdoor temperature. The research was carried out by theoretical study and numerical analysis of the refrigeration system using the EES program. Data input and simulation validation were obtained from experimental and secondary data. The result showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) decreased gradually with the outdoor temperature variation increasing. The results show the program can calculate the performance of the refrigeration system with quick running time and accurate. So, it will be significant important for the preliminary reference to improve the CO2 refrigeration system design for the hot climate temperature.
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Michael R. Willig; Christopher P. Bloch; Steven J. Presley
2014-01-01
Climate-induced disturbances such as hurricanes affect the structure and functioning of many ecosystems, especially those in the Caribbean Basin, where effects are well documented with regard to biodiversity and biogeochemical dynamics. Because climate change will likely alter the frequency or intensity of such storms, it is increasingly important to understand the...
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Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests
Fabien H. Wagner; Bruno Herault; Damien Bonal; Clement Stahl; Liana O. Anderson; Timothy R. Baker; Gabriel Sebastian Becker; Hans Beeckman; Danilo Boanerges Souza; Paulo Cesar Botosso; David M. J. S. Bowman; Achim Brauning; Benjamin Brede; Foster Irving Brown; Jesus Julio Camarero; Plinio Barbosa Camargo; Fernanda C. G. Cardoso; Fabricio Alvim Carvalho; Wendeson Castro; Rubens Koloski Chagas; Jerome Chave; Emmanuel N. Chidumayo; Deborah A. Clark; Flavia Regina Capellotto Costa; Camille Couralet; Paulo Henrique da Silva Mauricio; Helmut Dalitz; Vinicius Resende de Castro; Jacanan Eloisa de Freitas Milani; Edilson Consuelo de Oliveira; Luciano de Souza Arruda; Jean-Louis Devineau; David M. Drew; Oliver Dunisch; Giselda Durigan; Elisha Elifuraha; Marcio Fedele; Ligia Ferreira Fedele; Afonso Figueiredo Filho; Cesar Augusto Guimaraes Finger; Augusto Cesar Franco; Joao Lima Freitas Junior; Franklin Galvao; Aster Gebrekirstos; Robert Gliniars; Paulo Mauricio Lima de Alencastro Graca; Anthony D. Griffiths; James Grogan; Kaiyu Guan; Jurgen Homeier; Maria Raquel Kanieski; Lip Khoon Kho; Jennifer Koenig; Sintia Valerio Kohler; Julia Krepkowski; Jose Pires Lemos-Filho; Diana Lieberman; Milton Eugene Lieberman; Claudio Sergio Lisi; Tomaz Longhi Santos; Jose Luis Lopez Ayala; Eduardo Eijji Maeda; Yadvinder Malhi; Vivian R. B. Maria; Marcia C. M. Marques; Renato Marques; Hector Maza Chamba; Lawrence Mbwambo; Karina Liana Lisboa Melgaco; Hooz Angela Mendivelso; Brett P. Murphy; Joseph O' Brien; Steven F. Oberbauer; Naoki Okada; Raphael Pelissier; Lynda D. Prior; Fidel Alejandro Roig; Michael Ross; Davi Rodrigo Rossatto; Vivien Rossi; Lucy Rowland; Ervan Rutishauser; Hellen Santana; Mark Schulze; Diogo Selhorst; Williamar Rodrigues Silva; Marcos Silveira; Susanne Spannl; Michael D. Swaine; Jose Julio Toledo; Marcos Miranda Toledo; Marisol Toledo; Takeshi Toma; Mario Tomazello Filho; Juan Ignacio Valdez Hernandez; Jan Verbesselt; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Gregoire Vincent; Carolina Volkmer de Castilho; Franziska Volland; Martin Worbes; Magda Lea Bolzan Zanon; Luiz E. O. C. Aragao
2016-01-01
The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter...
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Changing hydrology under a changing climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Analysis of climate data from the Little River Experimental Watershed near Tifton, Georgia, in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the U.S.A. indicate air temperatures will increase (0.15 to 0.41°C decade-1) along with a slight increase in total annual precipitation in the 21st century. The greates...
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Laboratory for Atmospheres: Philosophy, Organization, Major Activities, and 1999 Highlights
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
The Laboratory for Atmospheres is helping to answer questions related to climate, and climate change and other scientific questions about our planet and its neighbors. The Laboratory conducts a broad theoretical and experimental research program studying all aspects of the atmospheres of the Earth and other planets, including their structural, dynamical, radiative, and chemical properties. In this report,there is a statement of the labs philosophy and a description of it's role in NASA's mission. A broad description of the research and a summary of the scientists' major accomplishments in 1999 is also included. The report also presents useful information on human resources, scientific interactions, and outreach activities with the outside community.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stockdale, James; Ineson, Philip
2016-04-01
Modelled predictions of the response of terrestrial systems to climate change are highly variable, yet the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is a vital ecosystem behaviour to understand due to its inherent feedback to the carbon cycle. The establishment and subsequent monitoring of replicated experimental manipulations are a direct method to reveal these responses, yet are difficult to achieve as they typically resource-heavy and labour intensive. We actively manipulated the temperature at three agricultural grasslands in southern England and deployed novel 'SkyLine' systems, recently developed at the University of York, to continuously monitor GHG fluxes. Each 'SkyLine' is a low-cost and fully autonomous technology yet produces fluxes at a near-continuous temporal frequency and across a wide spatial area. The results produced by 'SkyLine' enable the detail response of each system to increased temperature over diurnal and seasonal timescales. Unexpected differences in NEE are shown between superficially similar ecosystems which, upon investigation, suggest that interactions between a variety of environmental variables are key and that knowledge of pre-existing environmental conditions help to predict a systems response to future climate. For example, the prevailing hydrological conditions at each site appear to affect its response to changing temperature. The high-frequency data shown here, combined with the fully-replicated experimental design reveal complex interactions which must be understood to improve predictions of ecosystem response to a changing climate.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xue, X.
2017-12-01
Climatic warming is presumed to cause topsoil drought by increasing evapotranspiration and water infiltration, and by progressively inducing land degradation in alpine meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, how soil moisture and temperature patterns of degraded alpine meadows respond to climate warming remains unclear. A six-year continuous warming experiment was carried out in both degraded and undegraded alpine meadows in the source region of the Yangtze River. The goal was to identify the effects of climatic warming and land degradation on soil moisture (θ), soil surface temperature (Tsfc), and soil temperature (Ts). In the present study, land degradation significantly reduced θ by 4.5-6.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm (P < 0.001), and increased the annual mean Tsfc by 0.8°C. Warming with an infrared heater (radiation output of 150 W m-2) significantly increased the annual mean Tsfc by 2.5°C (P < 0.001) and significantly increased θ by 4.7% at a depth of 40-60 cm. Experimental warming in degraded land reversed the positive effects of the infrared heater and caused the yearly average θ to decrease significantly by 3.7-8.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm. Our research reveals that land degradation caused a significant water deficit near the soil surface. Experimental warming aggravated topsoil drought caused by land degradation, intensified the magnitude of degradation, and caused a positive feedback in the degraded alpine meadow ecosystem. Therefore, an immediate need exists to restore degraded alpine meadow grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in anticipation of a warmer future.
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Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R.
2018-01-01
Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can ‘refugia’ buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999–2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16–30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia. PMID:29444115
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Carbon Cycling Dynamics in Response to Pine Beetle Infection and Climate Variation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Monson, Russell K.
2015-01-26
We originally proposed to study and discover the changes that have occurred in soil carbon pools, as a result of tree mortality due to beetle infection, and the ease by which those pools release CO2 to the atmosphere in mountain forests in the Western US. We studied forest plots at two sites – the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site and the Fraser Experimental Forest site, both in Colorado.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dixon, K. W.; Balaji, V.; Lanzante, J.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. K.; Gaitan, C. F.
2013-12-01
Statistical downscaling (SD) methods may be viewed as generating a value-added product - a refinement of global climate model (GCM) output designed to add finer scale detail and to address GCM shortcomings via a process that gleans information from a combination of observations and GCM-simulated climate change responses. Making use of observational data sets and GCM simulations representing the same historical period, cross-validation techniques allow one to assess how well an SD method meets this goal. However, lacking observations of future, the extent to which a particular SD method's skill might degrade when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed in the same manner. Here we illustrate and describe extensions to a 'perfect model' experimental design that seeks to quantify aspects of SD method performance both for a historical period (1979-2008) and for late 21st century climate projections. Examples highlighting cases in which downscaling performance deteriorates in future climate projections will be discussed. Also, results will be presented showing how synthetic datasets having known statistical properties may be used to further isolate factors responsible for degradations in SD method skill under changing climatic conditions. We will describe a set of input files used to conduct these analyses that are being made available to researchers who wish to utilize this experimental framework to evaluate SD methods they have developed. The gridded data sets cover a region centered on the contiguous 48 United States with a grid spacing of approximately 25km, have daily time resolution (e.g., maximum and minimum near-surface temperature and precipitation), and represent a total of 120 years of model simulations. This effort is consistent with the 2013 National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop goal of supporting a community approach to promote the informed use of downscaled climate projections.
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Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.
Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni
2016-10-01
Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Halperin, A.; Walton, P.
2015-12-01
As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.
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Ethics rounds do not improve the handling of ethical issues by psychiatric staff.
Silén, Marit; Haglund, Kristina; Hansson, Mats G; Ramklint, Mia
2015-08-01
One way to support healthcare staff in handling ethically difficult situations is through ethics rounds that consist of discussions based on clinical cases and are moderated by an ethicist. Previous research indicates that the handling of ethically difficult situations in the workplace might have changed after ethics rounds. This, in turn, would mean that the "ethical climate", i.e. perceptions of how ethical issues are handled, would have changed. To investigate whether ethics rounds could improve the ethical climate perceived by staff working in psychiatry outpatient clinics. In this quasi-experimental study, six inter-professional ethics rounds led by a philosopher/ethicist were conducted at two psychiatry outpatient clinics. Changes in ethical climate were measured at these clinics as well as at two control clinics at baseline and after the intervention period using the instrument Hospital Ethical Climate Survey. Within-groups comparisons of median sum scores of ethical climate showed that no statistically significant differences were found in the intervention group before or after the intervention period. The median sum scores for ethical climate were significantly higher, both at baseline and after the intervention period (P ≤ 0.001; P = 0.046), in the intervention group. Ethics rounds in psychiatric outpatient clinics did not result in significant changes in ethical climate. Outcomes of ethics rounds might, to a higher degree, be directed towards patient-related outcomes rather than towards the staff's working environment, as the questions brought up for discussion during the ethics rounds concerned patient-related issues.
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Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis
2012-05-01
Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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Folger, Christina L; Lee, Henry; Janousek, Christopher N.; Reusser, Deborah A.
2014-01-01
Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.
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Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Findlay, Helen S.; Tait, Karen; Widdicombe, Stephen; Mieszkowska, Nova
2013-01-01
Climate change may cause ecosystems to become trophically restructured as a result of primary producers and consumers responding differently to increasing CO2 and temperature. This study used an integrative approach using a controlled microcosm experiment to investigate the combined effects of CO2 and temperature on key components of the intertidal system in the UK, biofilms and their consumers (Littorina littorea). In addition, to identify whether pre-exposure to experimental conditions can alter experimental outcomes we explicitly tested for differential effects on L. littorea pre-exposed to experimental conditions for two weeks and five months. In contrast to predictions based on metabolic theory, the combination of elevated temperature and CO2 over a five-week period caused a decrease in the amount of primary productivity consumed by grazers, while the abundance of biofilms increased. However, long-term pre-exposure to experimental conditions (five months) altered this effect, with grazing rates in these animals being greater than in animals exposed only for two weeks. We suggest that the structure of future ecosystems may not be predictable using short-term laboratory experiments alone owing to potentially confounding effects of exposure time and effects of being held in an artificial environment over prolonged time periods. A combination of laboratory (physiology responses) and large, long-term experiments (ecosystem responses) may therefore be necessary to adequately predict the complex and interactive effects of climate change as organisms may acclimate to conditions over the longer term. PMID:23980241
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Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Findlay, Helen S; Tait, Karen; Widdicombe, Stephen; Mieszkowska, Nova
2013-01-01
Climate change may cause ecosystems to become trophically restructured as a result of primary producers and consumers responding differently to increasing CO2 and temperature. This study used an integrative approach using a controlled microcosm experiment to investigate the combined effects of CO2 and temperature on key components of the intertidal system in the UK, biofilms and their consumers (Littorina littorea). In addition, to identify whether pre-exposure to experimental conditions can alter experimental outcomes we explicitly tested for differential effects on L. littorea pre-exposed to experimental conditions for two weeks and five months. In contrast to predictions based on metabolic theory, the combination of elevated temperature and CO2 over a five-week period caused a decrease in the amount of primary productivity consumed by grazers, while the abundance of biofilms increased. However, long-term pre-exposure to experimental conditions (five months) altered this effect, with grazing rates in these animals being greater than in animals exposed only for two weeks. We suggest that the structure of future ecosystems may not be predictable using short-term laboratory experiments alone owing to potentially confounding effects of exposure time and effects of being held in an artificial environment over prolonged time periods. A combination of laboratory (physiology responses) and large, long-term experiments (ecosystem responses) may therefore be necessary to adequately predict the complex and interactive effects of climate change as organisms may acclimate to conditions over the longer term.
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Plant–pollinator interactions under climate change: The use of spatial and temporal transplants1
Morton, Eva M.; Rafferty, Nicole E.
2017-01-01
Climate change is affecting both the timing of life history events and the spatial distributions of many species, including plants and pollinators. Shifts in phenology and range affect not only individual plant and pollinator species but also interactions among them, with possible negative consequences for both parties due to unfavorable abiotic conditions or mismatches caused by differences in shift magnitude or direction. Ultimately, population extinctions and reductions in pollination services could occur as a result of these climate change–induced shifts, or plants and pollinators could be buffered by plastic or genetic responses or novel interactions. Either scenario will likely involve altered selection pressures, making an understanding of plasticity and local adaptation in space and time especially important. In this review, we discuss two methods for studying plant–pollinator interactions under climate change: spatial and temporal transplants, both of which offer insight into whether plants and pollinators will be able to adapt to novel conditions. We discuss the advantages and limitations of each method and the future possibilities for this area of study. We advocate for consideration of how joint shifts in both dimensions might affect plant–pollinator interactions and point to key insights that can be gained with experimental transplants. PMID:28690930
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Koohestani, Hamid Reza; Baghcheghi, Nayereh
2016-01-01
Background: Team-based learning is a structured type of cooperative learning that is becoming increasingly more popular in nursing education. This study compares levels of nursing students’ perception of the psychosocial climate of the classroom between conventional lecture group and team-based learning group. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study with pretest-posttest design 38 nursing students of second year participated. One half of the 16 sessions of cardiovascular disease nursing course sessions was taught by lectures and the second half with team-based learning. The modified college and university classroom environment inventory (CUCEI) was used to measure the perception of classroom environment. This was completed after the final lecture and TBL sessions. Results: Results revealed a significant difference in the mean scores of psycho-social climate for the TBL method (Mean (SD): 179.8(8.27)) versus the mean score for the lecture method (Mean (SD): 154.213.44)). Also, the results showed significant differences between the two groups in the innovation (p<0.001), student cohesiveness (p=0.01), cooperation (p<0.001) and equity (p= 0.03) sub-scales scores (p<0.05). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that team-based learning does have a positive effect on nursing students’ perceptions of their psycho-social climate of the classroom. PMID:28210602
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The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Blackburn, Michael; Williamson, David L.; Nakajima, Kensuke; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Ishiwatari, Masaki; Mcgregor, John L.; Borth, Hartmut;
2013-01-01
Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE.Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies.The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed.The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behavior and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.
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Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V
2012-01-01
Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bjorkman, Anne; Henry, Greg; Vellend, Mark
2013-04-01
Climatic changes due to anthropogenic activity are predicted to have a profound effect on the world's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The response of natural communities to climate change will depend primarily on two factors: 1) the ability of species to adapt quickly to changing temperatures and precipitation trends, and 2) the ability of species and populations from southern latitudes to migrate northward and establish in new environments. The assumption is often made that species and populations will track their optimal climate northward as the earth warms, but this assumption ignores a host of other potentially important factors, including the lack of adaptation to photoperiod, soil moisture, and biotic interactions at higher latitudes. In this study, we aim to better understand the ability of southern populations to establish and grow at northern latitudes under warmer temperatures. We collected seeds or ramets of three Arctic plant species (Papaver radicatum, Oxyria digyna, and Arctagrostis latifolia) from Alexandra Fiord on Ellesmere Island, Canada and from southern populations at Cornwallis Island, Canada, Barrow, Alaska, and Latnjajaure, Sweden. These seeds were planted into experimentally warmed and control plots at Alexandra Fiord in 2011. We have tracked their survival, phenology, and growth over two growing seasons. Here, we will present the preliminary results of these experiments. In particular, we will discuss whether individuals originating from southern latitudes exhibit higher growth rates in warm plots than control plots, and whether southern populations survive and grow as well as or better than individuals from Alexandra Fiord in the warmed plots. In both cases, a positive response would indicate that a warming climate may facilitate a migration northward of more southerly species or populations, and that the lack of adaptation to local conditions (soil chemistry, microhabitat, etc.) will not limit this migration. Alternately, a negative response may indicate a need to reassess our fundamental assumptions about species migrations in response to climate change.
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Hygrothermal behavior for a clay brick wall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allam, R.; Issaadi, N.; Belarbi, R.; El-Meligy, M.; Altahrany, A.
2018-06-01
In Egypt, the clay brick is the common building materials which are used. By studying clay brick walls behavior for the heat and moisture transfer, the efficient use of the clay brick can be reached. So, this research studies the hygrothermal transfer in this material by measuring the hygrothermal properties and performing experimental tests for a constructed clay brick wall. We present the model for the hygrothermal transfer in the clay brick which takes the temperature and the vapor pressure as driving potentials. In addition, this research compares the presented model with previous models. By constructing the clay brick wall between two climates chambers with different boundary conditions, we can validate the numerical model and analyze the hygrothermal transfer in the wall. The temperature and relative humidity profiles within the material are measured experimentally and determined numerically. The numerical and experimental results have a good convergence with 3.5% difference. The surface boundary conditions, the ground effect, the infiltration from the closed chambers and the material heterogeneity affects the results. Thermal transfer of the clay brick walls reaches the steady state very rapidly than the moisture transfer. That means the effect of using only the external brick wall in the building in hot climate without increase the thermal resistance for the wall, will add more energy losses in the clay brick walls buildings. Also, the behavior of the wall at the heat and mass transfer calls the three-dimensional analysis for the whole building to reach the real behavior.
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Hygrothermal behavior for a clay brick wall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allam, R.; Issaadi, N.; Belarbi, R.; El-Meligy, M.; Altahrany, A.
2018-01-01
In Egypt, the clay brick is the common building materials which are used. By studying clay brick walls behavior for the heat and moisture transfer, the efficient use of the clay brick can be reached. So, this research studies the hygrothermal transfer in this material by measuring the hygrothermal properties and performing experimental tests for a constructed clay brick wall. We present the model for the hygrothermal transfer in the clay brick which takes the temperature and the vapor pressure as driving potentials. In addition, this research compares the presented model with previous models. By constructing the clay brick wall between two climates chambers with different boundary conditions, we can validate the numerical model and analyze the hygrothermal transfer in the wall. The temperature and relative humidity profiles within the material are measured experimentally and determined numerically. The numerical and experimental results have a good convergence with 3.5% difference. The surface boundary conditions, the ground effect, the infiltration from the closed chambers and the material heterogeneity affects the results. Thermal transfer of the clay brick walls reaches the steady state very rapidly than the moisture transfer. That means the effect of using only the external brick wall in the building in hot climate without increase the thermal resistance for the wall, will add more energy losses in the clay brick walls buildings. Also, the behavior of the wall at the heat and mass transfer calls the three-dimensional analysis for the whole building to reach the real behavior.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vorobyev, Alexey; van Dijk, Nico P.; Kristofer Gamstedt, E.
2018-02-01
Creep in archaeological oak samples and planks from the Vasa ship impregnated with polyethylene glycol (PEG) has been studied in museum-like climate. Creep studies of duration up to three years have been performed in nearly constant relative humidity and temperature of the controlled museum climate. Cubic samples were subjected to compressive creep tests in all orthotropic directions. Additionally, the creep behaviour of planks with and without PEG and of recent oak was tested in four-point bending. The experimental results have been summarised and also compared with reference results from recent oak wood. The effect of variable ambient conditions on creep and mass changes is discussed. The experimental results of creep in the longitudinal direction showed deformations even for the low stresses. There is relatively much more scatter in creep behaviour, and not all samples showed linear viscoelastic response. The creep in radial and tangential directions of the cubes and the plank samples showed a strong dependency on the ambient conditions. Some samples showed expansion for decreasing moisture content, possibly caused by the thermal expansion of the PEG component. For the planks, increasing creep deformation was observed induced by changing ambient conditions. Such behaviour may be related to e.g. oscillations in ambient conditions and presence of PEG in the wood cell wall and cell lumen. The behaviour of PEG archaeological wood depends on the level of deterioration that occurred over centuries. However, although the findings presented here apply to this specific case, they provide a unique view on such wood.
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Lee, Mark A; Manning, Pete; Walker, Catherine S; Power, Sally A
2014-12-01
Grasslands provide many ecosystem services including carbon storage, biodiversity preservation and livestock forage production. These ecosystem services will change in the future in response to multiple global environmental changes, including climate change and increased nitrogen inputs. We conducted an experimental study over 3 years in a mesotrophic grassland ecosystem in southern England. We aimed to expose plots to rainfall manipulation that simulated IPCC 4th Assessment projections for 2100 (+15% winter rainfall and -30% summer rainfall) or ambient climate, achieving +15% winter rainfall and -39% summer rainfall in rainfall-manipulated plots. Nitrogen (40 kg ha(-1) year(-1)) was also added to half of the experimental plots in factorial combination. Plant species composition and above ground biomass were not affected by rainfall in the first 2 years and the plant community did not respond to nitrogen enrichment throughout the experiment. In the third year, above-ground plant biomass declined in rainfall-manipulated plots, driven by a decline in the abundances of grass species characteristic of moist soils. Declining plant biomass was also associated with changes to arthropod communities, with lower abundances of plant-feeding Auchenorrhyncha and carnivorous Araneae indicating multi-trophic responses to rainfall manipulation. Plant and arthropod community composition and plant biomass responses to rainfall manipulation were not modified by nitrogen enrichment, which was not expected, but may have resulted from prior nitrogen saturation and/or phosphorus limitation. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change may in future influence plant productivity and induce multi-trophic responses in grasslands.
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Gender-specific responses to climate variability in a semi-arid ecosystem in northern Benin.
Dah-Gbeto, Afiavi P; Villamor, Grace B
2016-12-01
Highly erratic rainfall patterns in northern Benin complicate the ability of rural farmers to engage in subsistence agriculture. This research explores gender-specific responses to climate variability in the context of agrarian Benin through a household survey (n = 260) and an experimental gaming exercise among a subset of the survey respondents. Although men and women from the sample population are equally aware of climate variability and share similar coping strategies, their specific land-use strategies, preferences, and motivations are distinct. Over the long term, these differences would likely lead to dissimilar coping strategies and vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Examination of gender-specific land-use responses to climate change and anticipatory learning can enhance efforts to improve adaptability and resilience among rural subsistence farmers.
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The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.
2016-06-01
The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
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Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David
2000-09-01
It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors in the United States.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.
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Van Dyck, Hans; Holveck, Marie-Jeanne
2016-11-15
Life histories of organisms may vary with latitude as they experience different thermal constraints and challenges. This geographic, intraspecific variation could be of significance for range dynamics under climate change beyond edge-core comparisons. In this study, we did a reciprocal transplant experiment between the temperature-regimes of two latitudes with an ectotherm insect, examining the effects on energy metabolism and flight performance. Pararge aegeria expanded its ecological niche from cool woodland (ancestral) to warmer habitat in agricultural landscape (novel ecotype). Northern males had higher standard metabolic rates than southern males, but in females these rates depended on their ecotype. Southern males flew for longer than northern ones. In females, body mass-corrected flight performance depended on latitude and thermal treatment during larval development and in case of the southern females, their interaction. Our experimental study provides evidence for the role of ecological differentiation at the core of the range to modulate ecophysiology and flight performance at different latitudes, which in turn may affect the climatic responsiveness of the species.
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Van Dyck, Hans; Holveck, Marie-Jeanne
2016-01-01
Life histories of organisms may vary with latitude as they experience different thermal constraints and challenges. This geographic, intraspecific variation could be of significance for range dynamics under climate change beyond edge-core comparisons. In this study, we did a reciprocal transplant experiment between the temperature-regimes of two latitudes with an ectotherm insect, examining the effects on energy metabolism and flight performance. Pararge aegeria expanded its ecological niche from cool woodland (ancestral) to warmer habitat in agricultural landscape (novel ecotype). Northern males had higher standard metabolic rates than southern males, but in females these rates depended on their ecotype. Southern males flew for longer than northern ones. In females, body mass-corrected flight performance depended on latitude and thermal treatment during larval development and in case of the southern females, their interaction. Our experimental study provides evidence for the role of ecological differentiation at the core of the range to modulate ecophysiology and flight performance at different latitudes, which in turn may affect the climatic responsiveness of the species. PMID:27845372
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Multiscale Trend Analysis for Pampa Grasslands Using Ground Data and Vegetation Sensor Imagery
Scottá, Fernando C.; da Fonseca, Eliana L.
2015-01-01
This study aimed to evaluate changes in the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grasslands in the Pampa biome by using experimental plots and changes in the spectral responses of similar vegetation communities obtained by remote sensing and to compare both datasets with meteorological variations to validate the transition scales of the datasets. Two different geographic scales were considered in this study. At the local scale, an analysis of the climate and its direct influences on grassland ANPP was performed using data from a long-term experiment. At the regional scale, the influences of climate on the grassland reflectance patterns were determined using vegetation sensor imagery data. Overall, the monthly variations of vegetation canopy growth analysed using environmental changes (air temperature, total rainfall and total evapotranspiration) were similar. The results from the ANPP data and the NDVI data showed the that variations in grassland growth were similar and independent of the analysis scale, which indicated that local data and the relationships of local data with climate can be considered at the regional scale in the Pampa biome by using remote sensing. PMID:26197320
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Phillips, T. J.; Semtner, A. J., Jr.
1984-01-01
Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.
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Lindsey E. Rustad
2006-01-01
Evidence continues to accumulate that humans are significantly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in unprecedented changes in the global climate system. Experimental manipulations of terrestrial ecosystems and their components have greatly increased our understanding of short-term responses to these global perturbations and have...
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Megan M. Friggens; Marcus V. Warwell; Jeanne C. Chambers; Stanley G. Kitchen
2012-01-01
Experimental research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the Interior West due to climate change. Speciesâ responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment properties, biotic interactions, and capacity to evolve and migrate. Because...
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Warming and elevated CO2 lead to longer growing season in temperate grassland
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Observational data over time suggest that as climate has warmed the growing season has lengthened, although experimental warming shortens early-growing species’ life cycles. Are other plant species living longer? We found that experimental warming in a temperate, semi-arid grassland led to earlier l...
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Gillard, Morgane; Grewell, Brenda J.; Futrell, Caryn J.; Deleu, Carole; Thiébaut, Gabrielle
2017-01-01
Aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to biological invasions, and will also be strongly impacted by climate change, including temperature increase. Understanding the colonization dynamics of aquatic invasive plant species is of high importance for preservation of native biodiversity. Many aquatic invasive plants rely on clonal reproduction to spread, but mixed reproductive modes are common. Under future climate changes, these species may favor a sexual reproductive mode. The aim of this study was to test the germination capacity and the seedling growth of two water primrose species, Ludwigia hexapetala and Ludwigia peploides, both invasive in Europe and in the United States. We performed a reciprocal transplant of seeds of L. hexapetala and L. peploides from two invasive ranges into experimental gardens characterized by Oceanic and Mediterranean-type climates. Our results showed that higher temperatures increased or maintained germination percentages and velocity, decreased survivorship of germinants, but increased their production of biomass. The origin of the seeds had low impact on L. hexapetala responses to temperature, but greatly influenced those of L. peploides. The invasiveness of water primroses in ranges with Oceanic climates might increase with temperature. The recruitment from seed banks by these species should be considered by managers to improve the conservation of native aquatic and wetland plant species. PMID:29018472
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Stoks, Robby; Geerts, Aurora N; De Meester, Luc
2014-01-01
We integrated the evidence for evolutionary and plastic trait changes in situ in response to climate change in freshwater invertebrates (aquatic insects and zooplankton). The synthesis on the trait changes in response to the expected reductions in hydroperiod and increases in salinity indicated little evidence for adaptive, plastic, and genetic trait changes and for local adaptation. With respect to responses to temperature, there are many studies on temporal trait changes in phenology and body size in the wild that are believed to be driven by temperature increases, but there is a general lack of rigorous demonstration whether these trait changes are genetically based, adaptive, and causally driven by climate change. Current proof for genetic trait changes under climate change in freshwater invertebrates stems from a limited set of common garden experiments replicated in time. Experimental thermal evolution experiments and common garden warming experiments associated with space-for-time substitutions along latitudinal gradients indicate that besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity are likely to contribute to the observed phenotypic changes under climate change in aquatic invertebrates. Apart from plastic and genetic thermal adjustments, also genetic photoperiod adjustments are widespread and may even dominate the observed phenological shifts. PMID:24454547
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Factors Controlling Carbon Metabolism and Humification in Different Soil Agroecosystems
Doni, S.; Macci, C.; Peruzzi, E.; Ceccanti, B.; Masciandaro, G.
2014-01-01
The aim of this study was to describe the processes that control humic carbon sequestration in soil. Three experimental sites differing in terms of management system and climate were selected: (i) Abanilla-Spain, soil treated with municipal solid wastes in Mediterranean semiarid climate; (ii) Puch-Germany, soil under intensive tillage and conventional agriculture in continental climate; and (iii) Alberese-Italy, soil under organic and conventional agriculture in Mediterranean subarid climate. The chemical-structural and biochemical soil properties at the initial sampling time and one year later were evaluated. The soils under organic (Alberese, soil cultivated with Triticum durum Desf.) and nonintensive management practices (Puch, soil cultivated with Triticum aestivum L. and Avena sativa L.) showed higher enzymatically active humic carbon, total organic carbon, humification index (B/E3s), and metabolic potential (dehydrogenase activity/water soluble carbon) if compared with conventional agriculture and plough-based tillage, respectively. In Abanilla, the application of municipal solid wastes stimulated the specific β-glucosidase activity (extracellular β-glucosidase activity/extractable humic carbon) and promoted the increase of humic substances with respect to untreated soil. The evolution of the chemical and biochemical status of the soils along a climatic gradient suggested that the adoption of certain management practices could be very promising in increasing SOC sequestration potential. PMID:25614887
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Gillard, Morgane; Grewell, Brenda J; Futrell, Caryn J; Deleu, Carole; Thiébaut, Gabrielle
2017-01-01
Aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to biological invasions, and will also be strongly impacted by climate change, including temperature increase. Understanding the colonization dynamics of aquatic invasive plant species is of high importance for preservation of native biodiversity. Many aquatic invasive plants rely on clonal reproduction to spread, but mixed reproductive modes are common. Under future climate changes, these species may favor a sexual reproductive mode. The aim of this study was to test the germination capacity and the seedling growth of two water primrose species, Ludwigia hexapetala and Ludwigia peploides , both invasive in Europe and in the United States. We performed a reciprocal transplant of seeds of L. hexapetala and L. peploides from two invasive ranges into experimental gardens characterized by Oceanic and Mediterranean-type climates. Our results showed that higher temperatures increased or maintained germination percentages and velocity, decreased survivorship of germinants, but increased their production of biomass. The origin of the seeds had low impact on L. hexapetala responses to temperature, but greatly influenced those of L. peploides . The invasiveness of water primroses in ranges with Oceanic climates might increase with temperature. The recruitment from seed banks by these species should be considered by managers to improve the conservation of native aquatic and wetland plant species.
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Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.
Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew
2016-08-01
Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Predictionmore » (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.« less
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Lameris, Thomas K; Jochems, Femke; van der Graaf, Alexandra J; Andersson, Mattias; Limpens, Juul; Nolet, Bart A
2017-04-01
During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen-rich forage plants, following a "green wave" of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open-top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0-1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop-over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen-rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1-2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.
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Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming.
Reich, Peter B; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Wei, Xiaorong; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A
2016-03-31
Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.
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Microbial Community Activity is Insensitive to Passive Warming in a Semiarid Ecosystem
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Espinosa, N. J.; Gallery, R. E.; Fehmi, J. S.
2016-12-01
Soil microorganisms drive ecosystem nutrient cycling through the production of extracellular enzymes, which facilitate organic matter decomposition, and the flux of large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Although aird and semiarid ecosystems occupy over 40% of land cover and are projected to expand due to climate change, much of our current understanding of these processes comes from mesic temperate ecosystems. Semiarid ecosystems have added complexity due to the widespread biological adaptations to infrequent and discreet precipitation pulses, which enable biological activity to persist throughout dry periods and thrive following seasonal precipitation events. Additionally, the intricacies of plant-microbe interactions and the response of these interactions to a warmer climate and increased precipitation variability in semiarid ecosystems present a continued challenge for climate change research. In this study, we used a passive warming experiment with added plant debris as either woodchip or biochar, to simulate different long-term carbon additions to two common semiarid soils. The response of soil respiration, plant biomass, and microbial activity was monitored bi-annually. We hypothesized that microbial activity would increase with temperature manipulations when soil moisture limitation was alleviated by summer precipitation. The passive warming treatment was most pronounced during periods of daily and seasonal temperature maxima. For all seven hydrolytic enzymes examined, there was no significant response to experimental warming, regardless of seasonal climatic and soil moisture variation. Surprisingly, soil respiration responded positively to warming for certain carbon additions and seasons, which did not correspond with a similar response in plant biomass. The enzyme results observed here are consistent with the few other experimental results for warming in semiarid ecosystems and indicate that the soil microbial community activity of semiarid ecosystems is potentially resilient to a warmer environment.
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Maciel, Felipe Jucá; Jucá, José Fernando Thomé
2011-05-01
Landfill gas (LFG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills are an important environmental concern in Brazil due to the existence of several uncontrolled disposal sites. A program of laboratory and field tests was conducted to investigate gas generation in and emission from an Experimental Cell with a 36,659-ton capacity in Recife/PE - Brazil. This investigation involved waste characterisation, gas production and emission monitoring, and geotechnical and biological evaluations and was performed using three types of final cover layers. The results obtained in this study showed that waste decomposes 4-5 times faster in a tropical wet climate than predicted by traditional first-order models using default parameters. This fact must be included when considering the techniques and economics of projects developed in tropical climate countries. The design of the final cover layer and its geotechnical and biological behaviour proved to have an important role in minimising gas emissions to the atmosphere. Capillary and methanotrophic final cover layers presented lower CH(4) flux rates than the conventional layer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Analyses of phase change materials’ efficiency in warm-summer humid continental climate conditions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ratnieks, J.; Gendelis, S.; Jakovics, A.; Bajare, D.
2017-10-01
The usage of phase change materials (PCMs) is a way to store excess energy produced during the hot time of the day and release it during the night thereby reducing the overheating problem. While, in Latvian climate conditions overheating is not a big issue in traditional buildings since it happens only a couple of weeks per year air conditioners must still be installed to maintain thermal comfort. The need for cooling in recently built office buildings with large window area can increase significantly. It is therefore of great interest if the thermal comfort conditions can be maintained by PCMs alone or with reduced maximum power of installed cooling systems. Our initial studies show that if the test building is well-insulated (necessary to reduce heat loss in winter), phase change material is not able to solidify fast enough during the relatively short night time. To further investigate the problem various experimental setups with two different phase change materials were installed in test buildings. Experimental results are compared with numerical modelling made in software COMSOL Multiphysics. The effectiveness of PCM using different situations is widely analysed.
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S.M. Natali; E.A.G. Schuur; R.L. Rubin
2012-01-01
The response of northern tundra plant communities to warming temperatures is of critical concern because permafrost ecosystems play a key role in global carbon (C) storage, and climate-induced ecological shifts in the plant community will affect the transfer of carbon-dioxide between biological and atmospheric pools. This study, which focuses on the response of tundra...
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E. Cuevas; A. E. Lugo
1998-01-01
We studied the rates and patterns of carbon and nutrient fuxes in litterfall in ten tropical tree plantation species grown at the USDA Forest Service Arboretum in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. The stands were 26-years old and grew under similar climatic and edaphic conditions. Individual plantation species ranked differently in terms of their capacity...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hanson, Thomas; Polik, Jeff; Cerna, Rebeca
2017-01-01
An activity for eliciting student involvement in collaborative decision-making and problem-solving with adults--the student listening circle workshop--is examined for the first time through an experimental study of its effects on participating students. A student listening circle is a facilitated focus group in which students articulate to adults…
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Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andy R
2009-05-22
Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.
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The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases
Lafferty, Kevin D.
2009-01-01
The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.
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Using physiology to predict the responses of ants to climatic warming.
Diamond, Sarah E; Penick, Clint A; Pelini, Shannon L; Ellison, Aaron M; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Sanders, Nathan J; Dunn, Robert R
2013-12-01
Physiological intolerance of high temperatures places limits on organismal responses to the temperature increases associated with global climatic change. Because ants are geographically widespread, ecologically diverse, and thermophilic, they are an ideal system for exploring the extent to which physiological tolerance can predict responses to environmental change. Here, we expand on simple models that use thermal tolerance to predict the responses of ants to climatic warming. We investigated the degree to which changes in the abundance of ants under warming reflect reductions in the thermal niche space for their foraging. In an eastern deciduous forest system in the United States with approximately 40 ant species, we found that for some species, the loss of thermal niche space for foraging was related to decreases in abundance with increasing experimental climatic warming. However, many ant species exhibited no loss of thermal niche space. For one well-studied species, Temnothorax curvispinosus, we examined both survival of workers and growth of colonies (a correlate of reproductive output) as functions of temperature in the laboratory, and found that the range of thermal tolerances for colony growth was much narrower than for survival of workers. We evaluated these functions in the context of experimental climatic warming and found that the difference in the responses of these two attributes to temperature generates differences in the means and especially the variances of expected fitness under warming. The expected mean growth of colonies was optimized at intermediate levels of warming (2-4°C above ambient); yet, the expected variance monotonically increased with warming. In contrast, the expected mean and variance of the survival of workers decreased when warming exceeded 4°C above ambient. Together, these results for T. curvispinosus emphasize the importance of measuring reproduction (colony growth) in the context of climatic change: indeed, our examination of the loss of thermal niche space with the larger species pool could be missing much of the warming impact due to these analyses being based on survival rather than reproduction. We suggest that while physiological tolerance of temperature can be a useful predictive tool for modeling responses to climatic change, future efforts should be devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of variability in models of tolerance calibrated with different metrics of performance and fitness.
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Khorsand Rosa, Roxaneh; Oberbauer, Steven F; Starr, Gregory; Parker La Puma, Inga; Pop, Eric; Ahlquist, Lorraine; Baldwin, Tracey
2015-12-01
Climate warming is strongly altering the timing of season initiation and season length in the Arctic. Phenological activities are among the most sensitive plant responses to climate change and have important effects at all levels within the ecosystem. We tested the effects of two experimental treatments, extended growing season via snow removal and extended growing season combined with soil warming, on plant phenology in tussock tundra in Alaska from 1995 through 2003. We specifically monitored the responses of eight species, representing four growth forms: (i) graminoids (Carex bigellowii and Eriophorum vaginatum); (ii) evergreen shrubs (Ledum palustre, Cassiope tetragona, and Vaccinium vitis-idaea); (iii) deciduous shrubs (Betula nana and Salix pulchra); and (iv) forbs (Polygonum bistorta). Our study answered three questions: (i) Do experimental treatments affect the timing of leaf bud break, flowering, and leaf senescence? (ii) Are responses to treatments species-specific and growth form-specific? and (iii) Which environmental factors best predict timing of phenophases? Treatment significantly affected the timing of all three phenophases, although the two experimental treatments did not differ from each other. While phenological events began earlier in the experimental plots relative to the controls, duration of phenophases did not increase. The evergreen shrub, Cassiope tetragona, did not respond to either experimental treatment. While the other species did respond to experimental treatments, the total active period for these species did not increase relative to the control. Air temperature was consistently the best predictor of phenology. Our results imply that some evergreen shrubs (i.e., C. tetragona) will not capitalize on earlier favorable growing conditions, putting them at a competitive disadvantage relative to phenotypically plastic deciduous shrubs. Our findings also suggest that an early onset of the growing season as a result of decreased snow cover will not necessarily result in greater tundra productivity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg
2012-01-01
Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
MacDonald, J Michael; Deru, Michael
2007-01-01
In 2005, Wal-Mart opened experimental stores in McKinney, Texas (hot climate), and Aurora, Colo. (cold climate). With these projects Wal-Mart can: * Learn how to achieve sustainability improvements; * Gain experience with the design, design process, and operations for some specific advanced technologies; * Understand energy use patterns in their stores more clearly; * Lay groundwork for better understanding of how to achieve major carbon footprint reductions; and * Measure the potential benefits of specific technologies tested.
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Short-Term Behavior of Slag Concretes Exposed to a Real In Situ Mediterranean Climate Environment.
Ortega, José Marcos; Sánchez, Isidro; Cabeza, Marta; Climent, Miguel Ángel
2017-08-08
At present, one of the most suitable ways to get a more sustainable cement industry is to reduce the CO₂ emissions generated during cement production. In order to reach that goal, the use of ground granulated blast-furnace slag as clinker replacement is becoming increasingly popular. Although the effects of this addition in the properties of cementitious materials are influenced by their hardening conditions, there are not too many experimental studies in which slag concretes have been exposed to real in situ environments. Then, the main objective of this research is to study the short-term effects of exposure to real Mediterranean climate environment of an urban site, where the action of airborne chlorides from sea water and the presence of CO₂ are combined, in the microstructure and service properties of a commercial slag cement concrete, compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC). The microstructure was studied with mercury intrusion porosimetry. The effective porosity, capillary suction coefficient, chloride migration coefficient, carbonation front depth, and compressive strength were also analyzed. Considering the results obtained, slag concretes exposed to a real in situ Mediterranean climate environment show good service properties in the short-term (180 days), in comparison with OPC.
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Rabinovich, Anna; Morton, Thomas A
2012-06-01
In two experimental studies we investigated the effect of beliefs about the nature and purpose of science (classical vs. Kuhnian models of science) on responses to uncertainty in scientific messages about climate change risk. The results revealed a significant interaction between both measured (Study 1) and manipulated (Study 2) beliefs about science and the level of communicated uncertainty on willingness to act in line with the message. Specifically, messages that communicated high uncertainty were more persuasive for participants who shared an understanding of science as debate than for those who believed that science is a search for absolute truth. In addition, participants who had a concept of science as debate were more motivated by higher (rather than lower) uncertainty in climate change messages. The results suggest that achieving alignment between the general public's beliefs about science and the style of the scientific messages is crucial for successful risk communication in science. Accordingly, rather than uncertainty always undermining the effectiveness of science communication, uncertainty can enhance message effects when it fits the audience's understanding of what science is. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
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The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed: A Hydro-Geo-Climatic Observatory for the 21^{st} Century
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marks, D.; Seyfried, M.; Flerchinger, G.
2006-12-01
Long-term hydro-climatic data on a watershed scale are critical to improving our understanding of basic hydrologic and ecologic processes because they provide a context to assess inter-annual variability and allow us to document longer-term trends. In addition, a scientific infrastructure that captures the spatial variations within a watershed are required to identify recharge areas, describe the amount and timing of streamflow generation and understand the variability of vegetation. These basic data, combined with soil microclimate information, are required to describe the milieu for geochemical weathering and soil formation. Data from watersheds that include significant human activities, such as grazing, farming, irrigation, and urbanization, represent conditions typical to most watersheds and are critical for determining the signature of human induced changes on hydrologic processes and the water cycle. The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW), a 239 km2 drainage in the Owyhee Mountains near Boise, Idaho, was added to the USDA Agricultural Research Service watershed program in 1960. The vision for RCEW as an outdoor laboratory to support watershed research was described 1965 in the first volume of Water Resources Research [Robins et al., 1965]. The RCEW has supported a sustained data collection network for over 45 years. The first 35 years of data were presented in a series of papers in 2001 [Marks, 2001]. More recently, there has been an effort to better describe spatial variations within the watershed, and research is currently supported by 9 weirs, 32 primary and 5 secondary meteorological measurement stations, 26 precipitation stations, 8 snow course and 5 snow study sites, and 5 eddy covariance systems. In addition, soil microclimate (moisture and temperature) profile data are collected eight sites with surface data collected at an additional 19 sites. These support a wide range of experimental investigations including snow hydrology and physics, cold season hydrology, geophysics, water quality, model development and testing, water and carbon flux experiments, ecosystem processes, grazing effects, and mountain climate research. Active watershed manipulation allows fire ecology and hydrology, vegetation-climate inter-action, watershed restoration, grazing and wildlife management, and invasive plant research.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena
2016-09-01
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-managementmore » st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.« less
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Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; ...
2016-09-02
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-managementmore » st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.« less
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Effects of climate change on environmental factors in respiratory allergic diseases.
D'Amato, G; Cecchi, L
2008-08-01
A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere and the human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. However, there is also considerable evidence that subjects affected by asthma are at an increased risk of developing obstructive airway exacerbations with exposure to gaseous and particulate components of air pollution. It is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate change and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations. However, the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity suggests that air pollution and climate changes could be contributing. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution, rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated to an increase in the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy, prevalent in people who live in urban areas compared with those who live in rural areas. Meteorological factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc.) along with their climatological regimes (warm or cold anomalies and dry or wet periods, etc.), can affect both biological and chemical components of this interaction. In addition, by inducing airway inflammation, air pollution overcomes the mucosal barrier priming allergen-induced responses. In conclusion, climate change might induce negative effects on respiratory allergic diseases. In particular, the increased length and severity of the pollen season, the higher occurrence of heavy precipitation events and the increasing frequency of urban air pollution episodes suggest that environmental risk factors will have a stronger effect in the following decades.
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A laboratory experiment simulating the dynamics of topographic relief: methodology and results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crave, A.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.; Bonnet, S.; Laguionie, P.
2002-12-01
Theoretical analysis and numerical models of landscape evolution have advanced several scenarios for the long-term evolution of terrestrial topography. These scenarios require quantitative evaluation. Analyses of topography, sediment fluxes, and the physical mechanisms of erosion and sediment transport can provide some constraints on the range of plausible models. But in natural systems the boundary conditions (tectonic uplift, climate, base level) are often not well constrained and the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, climate, vegetation, and prevalent processes commonly confounds attempts at extrapolation of observations to longer timescales. In the laboratory, boundary conditions are known and heterogeneity and complexity can be controlled. An experimental approach can thus provide valuable constraints on the dynamics of geomorphic systems, provided that (1) the elementary processes are well calibrated and (2) the topography and sediment fluxes are sufficiently well documented. We have built an experimental setup of decimeter scale that is designed to develop a complete drainage network by the growth and propagation of erosion instabilities in response to tectonic and climatic perturbations. Uplift and precipitation rates can be changed over an order of magnitude. Telemetric lasers and 3D stereo-photography allow the precise quantification of the topographic evolution of the experimental surface. In order to calibrate the principal processes of erosion and transport we have used three approaches: (1) theoretical derivation of erosion laws deduced from the geometrical properties of experimental surfaces at steady-state under different rates of tectonic uplift; (2) comparison of the experimental transient dynamics with a numerical simulation model to test the validity of the predicted erosion laws; and (3) detailed analysis of particle detachment and transport in a millimeter sheet flow on a two-meter long flume under precisely controlled water discharge, slope and flow width. The analogy with real geomorphic systems is limited by the imperfect downscaling in both time and space of the experiments. However, these simple experiments have allowed us to probe (1) the importance of a threshold for particle mobilization to the relationship between steady-state elevation and uplift rate, (2) the role of initial drainage network organization in the transient dynamics of tectonically perturbed systems and (3) the sediment flux dynamics of climatically perturbed systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem
2017-04-01
Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.
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Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils.
De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A; De Schrijver, An; Staelens, Jeroen; Alexander, Jake M; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brunet, Jörg; Chabrerie, Olivier; Chiarucci, Alessandro; den Ouden, Jan; Eckstein, R Lutz; Graae, Bente J; Gruwez, Robert; Hédl, Radim; Hermy, Martin; Kolb, Annette; Mårell, Anders; Mullender, Samantha M; Olsen, Siri L; Orczewska, Anna; Peterken, George; Petřík, Petr; Plue, Jan; Simonson, William D; Tomescu, Cezar V; Vangansbeke, Pieter; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vesterdal, Lars; Wulf, Monika; Verheyen, Kris
2014-04-01
Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently 'colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ajtai, Tibor; Pinter, Mate; Utry, Noemi; Kiss-Albert, Gergely; Palagyi, Andrea; Manczinger, Laszlo; Vagvölgyi, Csaba; Szabo, Gabor; Bozoki, Zoltan
2016-04-01
In this study we present results of field measurement campaigns focusing on the in-situ characterization of absorption spectra and the health relevance of light absorbing carbonaceous (LAC) in the ambient. The absorption spectra is measured @ 266, 355, 532 and 1064 nm by our state-of-the-art four-wavelength photoacoustic instrument, while for health relevance the eco- cito and genotoxicity parameters were measured using standardized methodologies. We experimentally demonstrated a correlation between the toxicities and the measured absorption spectra quantified by its wavelength dependency. Based on this correlation, we present novel possibilities on real-time air quality monitoring. LAC is extensively studied not only because of its considerable climate effects but as a serious air pollutant too. Gradually increasing number of studies demonstrated experimentally that the health effect of LAC is more serious than it is expected based on its share in total atmospheric aerosol mass. Furthermore during many local pollution events LAC not only has dominancy but it is close to exclusivity. Altogether due to its climate and health effects many studies and proposed regulations focus on the physical, chemical and toxicological properties of LAC as well as on its source apportionment. Despites of its importance, there is not yet a widely accepted standard methodology for the real-time and selective identification of LAC. There are many different reasons of that: starting from its complex inherent physicochemical features including many unknown constituents, via masking effect of ambient on the inherent physicochemical properties taking place even in case of a short residence, ending with the lack of reliable instrumentation for its health or source relevant parameters. Therefore, the methodology and instrument development for selective and reliable identification of LAC is timely and important issues in climate and air quality researches. Recently, many studies demonstrated correlation between the chemical compositions and the absorption features of LAC which open up novel possibilities in real time source apportionment and in air quality monitoring.
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Amber C. Churchill; Merritt R. Turetsky; A. David McGuire; Teresa N. Hollingsworth
2015-01-01
Northern peatlands represent a long-term net sink for atmospheric CO2, but these ecosystems can shift from net carbon (C) sinks to sources based on changing climate and environmental conditions. In particular, changes in water availability associated with climate control peatland vegetation and carbon uptake processes. We examined the influence of changing hydrology on...
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Research on climate impacts to forests began early at Fort Valley Experimental Forest
Brian W. Geils; Susan D. Olberding
2012-01-01
Even before Arizona was a state, government scientists walked and rode across its broad, open landscapes from nearly sea level to over 12,000 feet of elevation, observing its diverse vegetation and climate. In 1889, biologist C. Hart Merriam traversed northern Arizona and found six of the seven world life zones he would later describe by latitude and elevation. The...
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Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe
2012-01-01
Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. We used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to evaluate the effects of potential future changes in temperature,...
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pendall, Elise; Ogle, Kiona; Parton, William
2016-02-29
This research project improved understanding of how climate change (elevated atmospheric CO 2, warming and altered precipitation) can affect grassland ecosystem productivity and nutrient availability. Our advanced experimental and modeling methods allowed us to test 21 specific hypotheses. We found that ecosystem changes over years of exposure to climate change can shift the plant communities and potentially make them more resilient to future climate changes. These changes in plant communities may be related to increased growth of belowground roots and enhanced nutrient uptake by some species. We also found that climate change can increase the spread of invasive and noxiousmore » weeds. These findings are important for land managers to make adaptive planning decisions for domestic livestock production in response to climate variability in semi-arid grasslands.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodionov, S. N.; Martin, J. H.
1999-07-01
A novel approach to climate forecasting on an interannual time scale is described. The approach is based on concepts and techniques from artificial intelligence and expert systems. The suitability of this approach to climate diagnostics and forecasting problems and its advantages compared with conventional forecasting techniques are discussed. The article highlights some practical aspects of the development of climatic expert systems (CESs) and describes an implementation of such a system for the North Atlantic (CESNA). Particular attention is paid to the content of CESNA's knowledge base and those conditions that make climatic forecasts one to several years in advance possible. A detailed evaluation of the quality of the experimental real-time forecasts made by CESNA for the winters of 1995-1996, 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 are presented.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ryerson, T. B.
2009-12-01
CalNex is a major field study planned for May and June of 2010. The study, led by NOAA and the California Air Resources Board, coordinates many interagency partners with independent but complementary capabilities and goals. Observations from surface-, aircraft-, ship-, and space-based sensors, along with Lagrangian and Eulerian modeling studies, will be used to extend previous studies and contribute new data and understanding to issues relevant to climate change and air quality in California. This overview will present the integrated approach that will be taken in CalNex, utilizing long-term surface observations, instrumented tall towers, several major intensive ground sites, a network of daily ozonesonde launches, a radar profiling network, multiple instrumented research aircraft, a research vessel, and retrievals from several satellites. The primary CalNex science questions and experimental strategies to address them will be presented, with illustrations and data examples taken from recent field projects in California to provide context for the upcoming study.
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Anderson, Jill T; Gezon, Zachariah J
2015-04-01
Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2-3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hedo de Santiago, Javier; Esteban Lucasr Borja, Manuel; de las Heras, Jorge
2016-04-01
Adaptative forest management demands a huge scientific knowledge about post-fire vegetation dynamics, taking into account the current context of global change. We hypothesized that management practices should be carry out taking into account the climate change effect, to obtain better results in the biodiversity maintenance across time. All of this with respect to diversity and species composition of the post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests understory. The study was carried out in two post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests in the Southeastern of the Iberian Peninsula, under contrasting climatic conditions: Yeste (Albacete) shows a dry climate and Calasparra (Murcia) shows a semiarid climate. Thinning as post-fire silvicultural treatment was carried out five years after the wildfire event, in the year 1999. An experiment of artificial drought was designed to evacuate 15% of the natural rainfall in both sites, Yeste and Calasparra, to simulate climate change. Taking into account all the variables (site, silvicultural treatment and artificial drought), alpha diversity indices including species richness, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices, and plant cover, were analyzed as a measure of vegetation abundance. The results showed that plant species were affected by thinning, whereas induced drought affected total cover and species, with lower values at Yeste. Significant site variation was also observed in soil properties, species richness and total plant cover, conversely to the plant species diversity indices. We conclude that the plant community shows different responses to a simulated environment of climate change depending on the experimental site.
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Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blagodatskaya, Evgenia
2017-04-01
Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.
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Experimental Climate Change Modifies Degradative Succession in Boreal Peatland Fungal Communities.
Asemaninejad, Asma; Thorn, R Greg; Lindo, Zoë
2017-04-01
Peatlands play an important role in global climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 . Climate-driven changes in the structure of fungal communities in boreal peatlands that favor saprotrophic fungi can substantially impact carbon dynamics and nutrient cycling in these crucial ecosystems. In a mesocosm study using a full factorial design, 100 intact peat monoliths, complete with living Sphagnum and above-ground vascular vegetation, were subjected to three climate change variables (increased temperature, reduced water table, and elevated CO 2 concentrations). Peat litterbags were placed in mesocosms, and fungal communities in litterbags were monitored over 12 months to assess the impacts of climate change variables on peat-inhabiting fungi. Changes in fungal richness, diversity, and community composition were assessed using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of ribosomal DNA (rDNA). While general fungal richness reduced under warming conditions, Ascomycota exhibited higher diversity under increased temperature treatments over the course of the experiment. Both increased temperature and lowered water table position drove shifts in fungal community composition with a strong positive effect on endophytic and mycorrhizal fungi (including one operational taxonomic unit (OTU) tentatively identified as Barrenia panicia) and different groups of saprotrophs identified as Mortierella, Galerina, and Mycena. These shifts were observed during a predicted degradative succession in the decomposer community as different carbon substrates became available. Since fungi play a central role in peatland communities, increased abundances of saprotrophic fungi under warming conditions, at the expense of reduced fungal richness overall, may increase decomposition rates under future climate scenarios and could potentially aggravate the impacts of climate change.
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GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wouters, B.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Riva, R. E. M.; Sasgen, I.; Wahr, J.
2014-11-01
Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.
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GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change.
Wouters, B; Bonin, J A; Chambers, D P; Riva, R E M; Sasgen, I; Wahr, J
2014-11-01
Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.
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Climatology and archaeoastronomy - Environmental anthropology, a multidisciplinary exact science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gregori, G. P.; Gregori, L. G.
2003-04-01
During the last few tens thousand years, a dominating unprecedented "virus" - the human kind - controlled climate. It widespread over the Earth's surface and implied both short- and long-range effects in space and time. Phenomena can be expressively investigated like cycles of climate and civilisation, by which the entire human history has to be reinterpreted in terms of environmental anthropology. This is just much like every classical and conventional exact science, based on experimental quantitative observations. Archaeoastronomy is the "instrumental" tool for exploiting such measurements (much like a particle accelerator is the instrument for high-energy subnuclear physics, or a telescope for astrophysics). Its comparative wealth of information is even much larger. The anthropic factor is one leader in climate control, and such understanding helps in facing present disquieting challenges of society. Deontologically, such multidisciplinary studies are a "must" for every savant in order to avoid (i) misunderstanding that can lead to false or non-sense concerns, and (ii) correct underestimating of the real severe challenges and hazards.
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Light, time, and the physiology of biotic response to rapid climate change in animals.
Bradshaw, William E; Holzapfel, Christina M
2010-01-01
Examination of temperate and polar regions of Earth shows that the nonbiological world is exquisitely sensitive to the direct effects of temperature, whereas the biological world is largely organized by light. Herein, we discuss the use of day length by animals at physiological and genetic levels, beginning with a comparative experimental study that shows the preeminent role of light in determining fitness in seasonal environments. Typically, at seasonally appropriate times, light initiates a cascade of physiological events mediating the input and interpretation of day length to the output of specific hormones that ultimately determine whether animals prepare to develop, reproduce, hibernate, enter dormancy, or migrate. The mechanisms that form the basis of seasonal time keeping and their adjustment during climate change are reviewed at the physiological and genetic levels. Future avenues for research are proposed that span basic questions from how animals transition from dependency on tropical cues to temperate cues during range expansions, to more applied questions of species survival and conservation biology during periods of climatic stress.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-10-04
... made in 2004, when the fishery was being reopened under an experimental regulatory regime that was... NMFS based the information on Atlantic experimental results. Based on 100 percent observer coverage... quasi-extinction threshold within one generation (25 years) due largely to climate-forcing factors. As...
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ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts
John O. Roads; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis M. Fujioka
2001-01-01
The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near-real-time seasonal global forecasts since 26 September 1997 with the NCEP global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal timescales, are provided on the World Wide Web and digital forecast products are provided on the ECPC...
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Leonard J. Lane; Mary R. Kidwell
2003-01-01
We review research on surface water hydrology and soil erosion at the Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER). Almost all of the research was associated with eight small experimental watersheds established from 1974 to 1975 and operated until the present. Analysis of climatic features of the SRER supports extending research findings from the SRER to broad areas of the...
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Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA
J. Roads; F. Fujioka; S. Chen; R. Burgan
2005-01-01
The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (DFDRS), which include the ignition component (IC), energy release component (ER), burning...
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Long-term trends from ecosystem research at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest
John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Christopher Eagar; Gene E. Likens; Thomas G. Siccama; Chris E. Johnson; Timothy J. Fahey; Steven P. Hamburg; Richard T. Holmes; Amey S. Bailey; Donald C. Buso
2007-01-01
Summarizes 52 years of collaborative, long-term research conducted at the Hubbard Brook (NH) Experimental Forest on ecosystem response to disturbances such as air pollution, climate change, forest disturbance, and forest management practices. Also provides explanations of some of the trends and lists references from scientific literature for further reading.
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Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe.
Liancourt, Pierre; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Song, Daniel S; Spence, Laura A; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B
2015-09-01
Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate-induced biomass responses in 12 co-occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf-trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.
2013-12-01
Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.
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Corner, Adam; Pidgeon, Nick
2014-01-01
Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies—the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed ‘self-enhancing’ values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed. PMID:25404680
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Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment
Logan, Michael L.; Cox, Robert M.; Calsbeek, Ryan
2014-01-01
Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. PMID:25225361
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Religiosity, Culture, and Science Communication
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Malley, R. C.; Kahan, D.
2017-12-01
It is well established that cultural commitments influence receptivity to scientific information on risks and related policy-relevant facts. Religiosity is one proxy for such commitments. My presentation will present data from numerous studies (observational and experimental, lab and field) that address how religiosity as a form of cultural affinity shapes engagement with the best available evidence on human-caused climate change. The central conclusion of this research is that a skeptical position on climate change, much like a skeptical position on human evolution, operates as a tacit badge of membership in and loyalty to groups bound together by religious affiliations. Overcoming the distorting impact that this dynamic has on climate-science communication requires engaging members of religious groups not as members of those groups per se but as citizens with a practical stake in addressing the risks that climate change poses to them and their neighbors. Once enlisted into discussion and practical action on these grounds, however, religious individuals can be expected to share their positive experiences and outlooks with other members of their religious communities, thereby demonstrating to them that engaging with this form of science does not conflict with their cultural identities.
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Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities
Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.
2016-01-01
How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044
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Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.
Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J
2016-10-01
How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.
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Corner, Adam; Pidgeon, Nick
2014-12-28
Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies-the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed 'self-enhancing' values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed.
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Natural selection on thermal performance in a novel thermal environment.
Logan, Michael L; Cox, Robert M; Calsbeek, Ryan
2014-09-30
Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming.
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Global optimum vegetation rain water use is determined by aridity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Good, S. P.; Wang, L.; Caylor, K. K.
2015-12-01
The amount of rainwater that vegetation is able to transpire directly determines the total productivity of ecosystems, yet broad-scale trends in this sub-component of total evapotranspiration remain unclear. Since development in the 1970's, the Budyko framework has provided a simple, first-order, approach to partitioning total rainfall into runoff and evapotranspiration across climates. However, this classic paradigm provides little insight into the strength of biological mediation (i.e. transpiration flux) of the hydrologic cycle. Through a minimalist stochastic hydrology model we analytically extend the classical Budyko framework to predict the magnitude of transpiration relative to total rainfall as a function of ecosystem aridity. Consistent with a synthesis of experimental partitioning studies across climates, this model suggests a peak in the biological contribution to the hydrologic cycle at intermediate moisture values, with both arid and wet climates seeing decreased transpiration:precipitation ratios. To best match observed transpiration:precipitation ratios requires incorporation of elevated evaporation at lower canopy covers due to greater energy availability at the soil surface and elevated evaporation at higher canopy covers due to greater interception amounts. This new approach provides a connection between current and future climate regimes, hydrologic flux partitioning, and macro-system ecology.
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Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts
Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne
2015-01-01
Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. While there has been long-standing concern over impacts of 5 physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is also increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, USA, we examined the effects of 10 years of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities, and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical 10 disturbance (>10 years of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increased cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects 15 on lichens. While the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed by the climate treatments used in our study.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parishani, H.; Pritchard, M. S.; Bretherton, C. S.; Wyant, M. C.; Khairoutdinov, M.; Singh, B.
2017-12-01
Biases and parameterization formulation uncertainties in the representation of boundary layer clouds remain a leading source of possible systematic error in climate projections. Here we show the first results of cloud feedback to +4K SST warming in a new experimental climate model, the ``Ultra-Parameterized (UP)'' Community Atmosphere Model, UPCAM. We have developed UPCAM as an unusually high-resolution implementation of cloud superparameterization (SP) in which a global set of cloud resolving arrays is embedded in a host global climate model. In UP, the cloud-resolving scale includes sufficient internal resolution to explicitly generate the turbulent eddies that form marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus clouds. This is computationally costly but complements other available approaches for studying low clouds and their climate interaction, by avoiding parameterization of the relevant scales. In a recent publication we have shown that UP, while not without its own complexity trade-offs, can produce encouraging improvements in low cloud climatology in multi-month simulations of the present climate and is a promising target for exascale computing (Parishani et al. 2017). Here we show results of its low cloud feedback to warming in multi-year simulations for the first time. References: Parishani, H., M. S. Pritchard, C. S. Bretherton, M. C. Wyant, and M. Khairoutdinov (2017), Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, doi:10.1002/2017MS000968.
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Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.
2011-12-01
Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.
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Caputo, Jesse; Beier, Colin D; Groffman, Peter M; Burns, Douglas A.; Beall, Frederick D; Hazlett, Paul W.; Yorks, Thad E
2016-01-01
Demand for woody biomass fuels is increasing amidst concerns about global energy security and climate change, but there may be negative implications of increased harvesting for forest ecosystem functions and their benefits to society (ecosystem services). Using new methods for assessing ecosystem services based on long-term experimental research, post-harvest changes in ten potential benefits were assessed for ten first-order northern hardwood forest watersheds at three long-term experimental research sites in northeastern North America. As expected, we observed near-term tradeoffs between biomass provision and greenhouse gas regulation, as well as tradeoffs between intensive harvest and the capacity of the forest to remediate nutrient pollution. In both cases, service provision began to recover along with the regeneration of forest vegetation; in the case of pollution remediation, the service recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years. By contrast to these two services, biomass harvesting had relatively nominal and transient impacts on other ecosystem services. Our results are sensitive to empirical definitions of societal demand, including methods for scaling societal demand to ecosystem units, which are often poorly resolved. Reducing uncertainty around these parameters can improve confidence in our results and increase their relevance for decision-making. Our synthesis of long-term experimental studies provides insights on the social-ecological resilience of managed forest ecosystems to multiple drivers of change.
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Climate modifies response of non-native and native species richness to nutrient enrichment.
Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Reich, Peter B; Lind, Eric M; Sullivan, Lauren L; Seabloom, Eric W; Yahdjian, Laura; MacDougall, Andrew S; Reichmann, Lara G; Alberti, Juan; Báez, Selene; Bakker, Jonathan D; Cadotte, Marc W; Caldeira, Maria C; Chaneton, Enrique J; D'Antonio, Carla M; Fay, Philip A; Firn, Jennifer; Hagenah, Nicole; Harpole, W Stanley; Iribarne, Oscar; Kirkman, Kevin P; Knops, Johannes M H; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Laungani, Ramesh; Leakey, Andrew D B; McCulley, Rebecca L; Moore, Joslin L; Pascual, Jesus; Borer, Elizabeth T
2016-05-19
Ecosystem eutrophication often increases domination by non-natives and causes displacement of native taxa. However, variation in environmental conditions may affect the outcome of interactions between native and non-native taxa in environments where nutrient supply is elevated. We examined the interactive effects of eutrophication, climate variability and climate average conditions on the success of native and non-native plant species using experimental nutrient manipulations replicated at 32 grassland sites on four continents. We hypothesized that effects of nutrient addition would be greatest where climate was stable and benign, owing to reduced niche partitioning. We found that the abundance of non-native species increased with nutrient addition independent of climate; however, nutrient addition increased non-native species richness and decreased native species richness, with these effects dampened in warmer or wetter sites. Eutrophication also altered the time scale in which grassland invasion responded to climate, decreasing the importance of long-term climate and increasing that of annual climate. Thus, climatic conditions mediate the responses of native and non-native flora to nutrient enrichment. Our results suggest that the negative effect of nutrient addition on native abundance is decoupled from its effect on richness, and reduces the time scale of the links between climate and compositional change. © 2016 The Author(s).
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Climate modifies response of non-native and native species richness to nutrient enrichment
Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Reich, Peter B.; Lind, Eric M.; Sullivan, Lauren L.; Seabloom, Eric W.; Yahdjian, Laura; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Reichmann, Lara G.; Alberti, Juan; Báez, Selene; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Cadotte, Marc W.; Caldeira, Maria C.; Chaneton, Enrique J.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Fay, Philip A.; Firn, Jennifer; Hagenah, Nicole; Harpole, W. Stanley; Iribarne, Oscar; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Laungani, Ramesh; Leakey, Andrew D. B.; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Moore, Joslin L.; Pascual, Jesus; Borer, Elizabeth T.
2016-01-01
Ecosystem eutrophication often increases domination by non-natives and causes displacement of native taxa. However, variation in environmental conditions may affect the outcome of interactions between native and non-native taxa in environments where nutrient supply is elevated. We examined the interactive effects of eutrophication, climate variability and climate average conditions on the success of native and non-native plant species using experimental nutrient manipulations replicated at 32 grassland sites on four continents. We hypothesized that effects of nutrient addition would be greatest where climate was stable and benign, owing to reduced niche partitioning. We found that the abundance of non-native species increased with nutrient addition independent of climate; however, nutrient addition increased non-native species richness and decreased native species richness, with these effects dampened in warmer or wetter sites. Eutrophication also altered the time scale in which grassland invasion responded to climate, decreasing the importance of long-term climate and increasing that of annual climate. Thus, climatic conditions mediate the responses of native and non-native flora to nutrient enrichment. Our results suggest that the negative effect of nutrient addition on native abundance is decoupled from its effect on richness, and reduces the time scale of the links between climate and compositional change. PMID:27114575
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Alexander, Jake M
2013-09-22
A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.
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Soil Microbial Community Responses to Short-term Multiple Experimental Climate Change Drivers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Guanlin; Lee, Jongyeol; Lee, Sohye; Roh, Yujin; Son, Yowhan
2016-04-01
It is agreed that soil microbial communities are responsible for the cycling of carbon and nutrients in ecosystems; however, the response of these microbial communities to climate change has not been clearly understood. In this study, we measured the direct and interactive effects of climate change drivers on soil bacterial and fungal communities (abundance and composition) in an open-field multifactor climate change experiment. The experimental treatment system was established with two-year-old Pinus densiflora seedlings at Korea University in April 2013, and consisted of six different treatments with three replicates: two levels of air temperature warming (control and +3° C) were crossed with three levels of precipitation manipulation (control, -30% and +30%). After 2.5 years of treatments, in August, 2015, soil samples were collected from the topsoil (0-15cm) of all plots (n=18). High-throughput sequencing technology was used to assess the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Analysis of variance for a blocked split-plot design was used to detect the effects of climate change drivers and their interaction on the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Our results showed that 1) only the significant effect of warming on fungal community abundance was observed (P <0.05); 2) on average, warming decreased both bacterial and fungal community abundance by 20.90% and 32.30%, 6.69% and 45.89%, 14.71% and 19.56% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 3) however, warming increased the relative bacterium/fungus ratio on average by 14.03%, 37.03% and 14.31% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 4) the phylogenetic distribution of bacterial and fungal groups and their relative abundance varied among treatments; 5) treatments altered the relative abundance of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, where Ascomycota decreased with a concomitant increase in the Basidiomycota across all treatments; and 6) the shift induced by treatments in the dominant fungal group was larger than bacterial group. Since soil microorganisms differ in their susceptibility to stressors, the changes in the soil microbial communities may result from treatment-induced shifts in soil temperature and moisture. Our results indicate that climate change drivers and their interactions may cause changes in abundance and composition of soil microbial communities, especially for the fungal community. These results illustrate climate change drivers and their interactions may select for distinct soil microbial communities, and these community changes may shape the way ecosystems function in the future. This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2013R1A1A2012242).
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Calcification, Storm Damage and Population Resilience of Tabular Corals under Climate Change
Madin, Joshua S.; Hughes, Terry P.; Connolly, Sean R.
2012-01-01
Two facets of climate change–increased tropical storm intensity and ocean acidification–are expected to detrimentally affect reef-building organisms by increasing their mortality rates and decreasing their calcification rates. Our current understanding of these effects is largely based on individual organisms’ short-term responses to experimental manipulations. However, predicting the ecologically-relevant effects of climate change requires understanding the long-term demographic implications of these organism-level responses. In this study, we investigate how storm intensity and calcification rate interact to affect population dynamics of the table coral Acropora hyacinthus, a dominant and geographically widespread ecosystem engineer on wave-exposed Indo-Pacific reefs. We develop a mechanistic framework based on the responses of individual-level demographic rates to changes in the physical and chemical environment, using a size-structured population model that enables us to rigorously incorporate uncertainty. We find that table coral populations are vulnerable to future collapse, placing in jeopardy many other reef organisms that are dependent upon them for shelter and food. Resistance to collapse is largely insensitive to predicted changes in storm intensity, but is highly dependent on the extent to which calcification influences both the mechanical properties of reef substrate and the colony-level trade-off between growth rate and skeletal strength. This study provides the first rigorous quantitative accounting of the demographic implications of the effects of ocean acidification and changes in storm intensity, and provides a template for further studies of climate-induced shifts in ecosystems, including coral reefs. PMID:23056379
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Towards a Local-Scale Climate Service for Colombian Agriculture: Findings and Future Perspectives
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Prager, S.; Llanos, L.; Agudelo, D.; Esquivel, A.; Sotelo, S.; Guevara, E.; Howland, F. C.; Munoz, A.; Rodriguez, J.; Ordonez, L.; Fernandes, K.
2017-12-01
Globally, interannual climate variability explains roughly a third of the yield variation for major crops. In Colombia, interannual climate variations and specially those driven by ENSO can disrupt production, lower farmers' incomes and increase market prices for both urban and rural consumers alike. Farmers in Colombia, however, often plan for the cropping season based on the immediately prior year's experience, which is unlikely to result in successful crops under high climate variability events. Critical decisions for avoiding total investment loss or to ensure successful harvests, including issues related to planting date, what variety to plant, or whether to plant, are made, at best, intuitively. Here, we demonstrate that the combination of better data, skillful seasonal climate forecasts, calibrated crop models, and a web-based climate services platform tailored to users' needs can prove successful in establishing a sustained climate service for agriculture. Rainfall predictability analyses indicate that statistical seasonal climate forecasts are skillful enough for issuing forecasts reliably in virtually all areas, with dry periods generally showing greater predictability than wet periods. Importantly, we find that a better specification of predictor regions significantly enhances seasonal forecast skill. Rice and maize crop models capture well the growth and development of rice and maize crops in experimental settings, and ably simulate historical (1980-2014) variations in productivity. With skillful climate and crop models, we developed a climate services platform that produces seasonal climate forecasts, and connects these with crop models. A usability study of the forecast platform revealed that, from a population of ca. 200 farmers and professionals, roughly two thirds correctly interpreted information and felt both confident and encouraged to use the platform. Nevertheless, capacity strengthening on key agro-climatology concepts was highlighted by farmers as a crucial need. Challenges also arose in certain zones due to limited access to electricity, computers or Internet. Based on our results, we conclude that for a climate service to be truly sustainable, well-calibrated and skillful models are as critical as the co-creation of the service itself with the stakeholder community.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burakova, L. N.; Anisimov, I. A.; Burakova, A. D.; Burakova, O. D.
2018-05-01
The article deals with the issue of improving fuel efficiency and the ecological nature of passenger cars, servicing the administrative and management personnel of the oil and gas complex. It is established that fuel consumption and the amount of specific emissions of harmful substances with exhaust gases of cars when using the “climate control” system depend on the effective ambient temperature, the color of the opaque car body elements, the power of the car engine and the interior volume. However, the simplest controlled factor is the color of the opaque car body elements, which is characterized by the coefficient of light reflection. In the course of experimental studies, the authors established the dependences of a change in fuel consumption and a share of reducing emissions of harmful substances with exhaust gases of passenger cars with the “climate control” system on the coefficient of light reflection. A method has been developed to reduce fuel consumption and the amount of specific emissions of harmful substances with the exhaust gases of passenger cars using the “climate control” system, which involves painting the vehicle roof white and allows reducing fuel consumption by 5.5-10.3%, and the amount of specific emissions of harmful substances by 0.8-2.3%.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burakova, L. N.; Anisimov, I. A.; Burakova, A. D.; Burakova, O. D.
2018-05-01
The article deals with the issue of improving the fuel economy and environmental friendliness of motor vehicles which serve the administrative and management personnel of the oil and gas industry. It is established that fuel consumption and the amount of specific emissions of harmful substances with exhaust gases of cars when using the “climate control” system depend on the effective ambient temperature, the color of the opaque car body elements, the power of the car engine and the interior volume. However, the simplest controlled factor is the color of the opaque car body elements, which is characterized by the coefficient of light reflection. In the course of experimental studies, we established the dependences of a change in fuel consumption and a share of reducing emissions of harmful substances with exhaust gases of passenger cars with the “climate control” system on the coefficient of light reflection. A method has been developed to reduce fuel consumption and the amount of specific emissions of harmful substances with the exhaust gases of passenger cars using the “climate control” system, which involves painting the vehicle roof white and allows reducing fuel consumption by 5.5-10.3%, and the amount of specific emissions of harmful substances by 0.8-2.3%.
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Experimental landfill caps for semi-arid and arid climates.
Blight, Geoffrey E; Fourie, Andries B
2005-04-01
The United States EPA Subtitle D municipal solid waste landfill requirements specify that the permeability of a cap to a landfill be no greater than the permeability of the underliner. In recent years the concept of the evapotranspirative (ET) cap has been developed in which the cap is designed to store all rain infiltration and re-evapotranspire it during dry weather. Concern at the long period required for landfilled municipal solid waste to decompose and stabilize in arid and semi-arid climates has led to an extension of the concept of the ET cap. With the infiltrate-stabilize-evapotranspire (ISE) cap, rain infiltration during wet weather is permitted to enter the underlying waste, thus accelerating the decomposition and stabilization process. Excess infiltration is then removed from both waste and cap by evaporation during dry weather. The paper describes the construction and operation of two sets of experimental ISE caps, one in a winter rainfall semi-arid climate, and the other in a summer rainfall semi-arid climate. Observation of the rainfall, soil evaporation and amount of water stored in the caps has allowed water balances to be constructed for caps of various thicknesses. These observations show that the ISE concept is viable. In the limit, when there is insufficient rainfall to infiltrate the waste, an ISE cap operates as an ET cap.
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Interactions between above- and belowground organisms modified in climate change experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stevnbak, Karen; Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J.; Beier, Claus; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Christensen, Søren
2012-11-01
Climate change has been shown to affect ecosystem process rates and community composition, with direct and indirect effects on belowground food webs. In particular, altered rates of herbivory under future climate can be expected to influence above-belowground interactions. Here, we use a multifactor, field-scale climate change experiment and independently manipulate atmospheric CO2 concentration, air and soil temperature and drought in all combinations since 2005. We show that changes in these factors modify the interaction between above- and belowground organisms. We use an insect herbivore to experimentally increase aboveground herbivory in grass phytometers exposed to all eight combinations of climate change factors for three years. Aboveground herbivory increased the abundance of belowground protozoans, microbial growth and microbial nitrogen availability. Increased CO2 modified these links through a reduction in herbivory and cascading effects through the soil food web. Interactions between CO2, drought and warming can affect belowground protozoan abundance. Our findings imply that climate change affects aboveground-belowground interactions through changes in nutrient availability.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mccormac, B. M. (Editor); Seliga, T. A.
1979-01-01
The book contains most of the invited papers and contributions presented at the symposium/workshop on solar-terrestrial influences on weather and climate. Four main issues dominate the activities of the symposium: whether solar variability relationships to weather and climate is a fundamental scientific question to which answers may have important implications for long-term weather and climate prediction; the sun-weather relationships; other potential solar influences on weather including the 11-year sunspot cycle, the 27-day solar rotation, and special solar events such as flares and coronal holes; and the development of practical use of solar variability as a tool for weather and climatic forecasting, other than through empirical approaches. Attention is given to correlation topics; solar influences on global circulation and climate models; lower and upper atmospheric coupling, including electricity; planetary motions and other indirect factors; experimental approaches to sun-weather relationships; and the role of minor atmospheric constituents.
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Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers
Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.
2017-01-01
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.
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Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.
Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T
2017-07-01
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison
Dowsett, Harry J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Bentsen, Mats; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Chan, Wing-Le; Contoux, Camille; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jonas, Jeff A.; Jost, Anne; Kamae, Youichi; Lohmann, Gerrit; Lunt, Daniel J.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ramstein, Gilles; Riesselman, Christina R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Stepanek, Christian; Strother, Stephanie L.; Ueda, Hiroaki; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi
2013-01-01
The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. PMID:23774736
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Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.
Kröel-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus; De Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Estiarte, Marc; Garadnai, János; Kongstad, Jane; Kovács-Láng, Edit; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Liberati, Dario; Ogaya, Romà; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Smith, Andrew R; Sowerby, Alwyn; Tietema, Albert; Penuelas, Josep
2015-03-24
Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.
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Day length unlikely to constrain climate-driven shifts in leaf-out times of northern woody plants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zohner, Constantin M.; Benito, Blas M.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S.
2016-12-01
The relative roles of temperature and day length in driving spring leaf unfolding are known for few species, limiting our ability to predict phenology under climate warming. Using experimental data, we assess the importance of photoperiod as a leaf-out regulator in 173 woody species from throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and we also infer the influence of winter duration, temperature seasonality, and inter-annual temperature variability. We combine results from climate- and light-controlled chambers with species’ native climate niches inferred from georeferenced occurrences and range maps. Of the 173 species, only 35% relied on spring photoperiod as a leaf-out signal. Contrary to previous suggestions, these species come from lower latitudes, whereas species from high latitudes with long winters leafed out independent of photoperiod. The strong effect of species’ geographic-climatic history on phenological strategies complicates the prediction of community-wide phenological change.
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Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.
2011-01-01
The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.
2018-02-01
Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.
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Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.
Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan
2016-01-01
Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
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Conceptualizing, Understanding, and Predicting Responsible Decisions and Quality Input
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wall, N.; PytlikZillig, L. M.
2012-12-01
In areas such as climate change, where uncertainty is high, it is arguably less difficult to tell when efforts have resulted in changes in knowledge, than when those efforts have resulted in responsible decisions. What is a responsible decision? More broadly, when it comes to citizen input, what is "high quality" input? And most importantly, how are responsible decisions and quality input enhanced? The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the different dimensions of "responsible" or "quality" public input and citizen decisions by comparing and contrasting the different predictors of those different dimensions. We first present different possibilities for defining, operationalizing and assessing responsible or high quality decisions. For example, responsible decisions or quality input might be defined as using specific content (e.g., using climate change information in decisions appropriately), as using specific processes (e.g., investing time and effort in learning about and discussing the issues prior to making decisions), or on the basis of some judgment of the decision or input itself (e.g., judgments of the rationale provided for the decisions, or number of issues considered when giving input). Second, we present results from our work engaging people with science policy topics, and the different ways that we have tried to define these two constructs. In the area of climate change specifically, we describe the development of a short survey that assesses exposure to climate information, knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change, and use of climate information in one's decisions. Specifically, the short survey was developed based on a review of common surveys of climate change related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors, and extensive piloting and cognitive interviews. Next, we analyze more than 200 responses to that survey (data collection is currently ongoing and will be complete after the AGU deadline), and report the predictors of reported use of climate information in one's personal and work-related decisions, as well as significant predictors of one's willingness to commit to attend a four-hour public meeting and discussion with city leaders and energy experts for the purposes of thinking about and discussing local energy-related decisions. Finally, in order to consider future directions for assessing "responsible" or "quality" input in the area of climate change, we report data and results from experimental studies conducted in a different area of science: nanotechnology. Specifically, we discuss our methods for assessing quality of written input on the future development and regulation of nanotechnology under different experimental conditions (e.g., written alone or after discussion with a group), and the compare and contrast the best predictors of those operational definitions to those that we have explored in the area of climate change outreach contexts. Discussion will focus on the pros and cons of different ways of assessing the quality of public input.
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Experimental Forests and Ranges of the USDA Forest Service
Mary Beth Adams; Linda Loughry; Linda, comps. Plaugher
2008-01-01
The USDA Forest Service has an outstanding scientific resource in the 77 Experimental Forests and Ranges that exist across the United States and its territories. These valuable scientific resources incorporate a broad range of climates, forest types, research emphases, and history. This publication, revised in March 2008, describes each of the research sites within the...
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Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices
Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling
2008-01-01
The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...
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Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest & Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed.
Valerie Rapp
2003-01-01
Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest and Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed are located in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. Research focuses on basic ecological processes, hydrology, disturbance regimes, and climate change in the boreal forest region. Interior Alaska lies between the Alaska Range to the south and the Brooks Range to the north and covers an area...
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Runoff and sediment yield from proxy records: Upper Animas Creek Basin, New Mexico
W. R. Osterkamp
1999-01-01
Analyses of water- and sediment-yield records from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, the San Simon Wash Basin, and the Jornada Experimental Range, combined with observations of regional variations in climate, geology and soils, vegetation, topography, fire frequency, and land-use history, allow estimates of present conditions of water and sediment discharges in...
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Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts.
Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne
2015-09-29
Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. Although there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.
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Vezzulli, Luigi; Grande, Chiara; Reid, Philip C.; Hélaouët, Pierre; Edwards, Martin; Höfle, Manfred G.; Brettar, Ingrid; Colwell, Rita R.; Pruzzo, Carla
2016-01-01
Climate change is having a dramatic impact on marine animal and plant communities but little is known of its influence on marine prokaryotes, which represent the largest living biomass in the world oceans and play a fundamental role in maintaining life on our planet. In this study, for the first time to our knowledge, experimental evidence is provided on the link between multidecadal climatic variability in the temperate North Atlantic and the presence and spread of an important group of marine prokaryotes, the vibrios, which are responsible for several infections in both humans and animals. Using archived formalin-preserved plankton samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey over the past half-century (1958–2011), we assessed retrospectively the relative abundance of vibrios, including human pathogens, in nine areas of the North Atlantic and North Sea and showed correlation with climate and plankton changes. Generalized additive models revealed that long-term increase in Vibrio abundance is promoted by increasing sea surface temperatures (up to ∼1.5 °C over the past 54 y) and is positively correlated with the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) climatic indices (P < 0.001). Such increases are associated with an unprecedented occurrence of environmentally acquired Vibrio infections in the human population of Northern Europe and the Atlantic coast of the United States in recent years. PMID:27503882
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.
2016-12-01
Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.
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Experimental evaluation of drying characteristics of sewage sludge and hazelnut shell mixtures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pehlivan, Hüseyin; Ateş, Asude; Özdemir, Mustafa
2016-11-01
In this study the drying behavior of organic and agricultural waste mixtures has been experimentally investigated. The usability of sewage sludge as an organic waste and hazelnut shell as an agricultural waste was assessed in different mixture range. The paper discusses the applicability of these mixtures as a recovery energy source. Moisture content of mixtures has been calculated in laboratory and plant conditions. Indoor and outdoor solar sludge drying plants were constructed in pilot scale for experimental purposes. Dry solids and climatic conditions were constantly measured. A total more than 140 samples including for drying has been carried out to build up results. Indoor and outdoor weather conditions are taken into consideration in winter and summer. The most effective drying capacity is obtained in mixture of 20 % hazelnut shell and 80 % sewage sludge.
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The effect of temperature on experimental and natural chemical weathering rates of granitoid rocks
White, A.F.; Blum, A.E.; Bullen, T.D.; Vivit, D.V.; Schulz, M.; Fitzpatrick, J.
1999-01-01
The effects of climatic temperature variations (5-35??C) on chemical weathering are investigated both experimentally using flow-through columns containing fresh and weathered granitoid rocks and for natural granitoid weathering in watersheds based on annual solute discharge. Although experimental Na and Si effluent concentrations are significantly higher in the fresh relative to the weathered granitoids, the proportional increases in concentration with increasing temperature are similar. Si and Na exhibit comparable average apparent activation energies (E(a)) of 56 and 61 kJ/mol, respectively, which are similar to those reported for experimental feldspar dissolution measured over larger temperature ranges. A coupled temperature-precipitation model, using an expanded database for solute discharge fluxes from a global distribution of 86 granitoid watersheds, produces an apparent activation energy for Si (51 kJ/mol), which is also comparable to those derived from the experimental study. This correlation reinforces evidence that temperature does significantly impact natural silicate weathering rates. Effluent K concentrations in the column study are elevated with respect to other cations compared to watershed discharge due to the rapid oxidation/dissolution of biotite. K concentrations are less sensitive to temperature, resulting in a lower average E(a) value (27 kJ/mol) indicative of K loss from lower energy interlayer sites in biotite. At lower temperatures, initial cation release from biotite is significantly faster than cation release from plagioclase. This agrees with reported higher K/Na ratios in cold glacial watersheds relative to warmer temperate environments. Increased release of less radiogenic Sr from plagioclase relative to biotite at increasing temperature produces corresponding decreases in 87Sr/86Sr ratios in the column effluents. A simple mixing calculation using effluent K/Na ratios, Sr concentrations and 87Sr/86Sr ratios for biotite and plagioclase approximates stoichiometric cation ratios from biotite/plagioclase dissolution at warmer temperatures (35??C), but progressively overestimates the relative proportion of biotite with decreasing temperature. Ca, Mg, and Sr concentrations closely correlate, exhibit no consistent trends with temperature, and are controlled by trace amounts of calcite or exchange within weathered biotite. The inability of the watershed model to differentiate a climate signal for such species correlates with the lower temperature dependence observed in the experimental studies.
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A Columnar Storage Strategy with Spatiotemporal Index for Big Climate Data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, F.; Bowen, M. K.; Li, Z.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Lee, T. J.; Yang, C. P.
2015-12-01
Large collections of observational, reanalysis, and climate model output data may grow to as large as a 100 PB in the coming years, so climate dataset is in the Big Data domain, and various distributed computing frameworks have been utilized to address the challenges by big climate data analysis. However, due to the binary data format (NetCDF, HDF) with high spatial and temporal dimensions, the computing frameworks in Apache Hadoop ecosystem are not originally suited for big climate data. In order to make the computing frameworks in Hadoop ecosystem directly support big climate data, we propose a columnar storage format with spatiotemporal index to store climate data, which will support any project in the Apache Hadoop ecosystem (e.g. MapReduce, Spark, Hive, Impala). With this approach, the climate data will be transferred into binary Parquet data format, a columnar storage format, and spatial and temporal index will be built and attached into the end of Parquet files to enable real-time data query. Then such climate data in Parquet data format could be available to any computing frameworks in Hadoop ecosystem. The proposed approach is evaluated using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. Experimental results show that this approach could efficiently overcome the gap between the big climate data and the distributed computing frameworks, and the spatiotemporal index could significantly accelerate data querying and processing.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Felton, A. J.; Smith, M. D.
2016-12-01
Heightened climatic variability due to atmospheric warming is forecast to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes. In particular, changes to interannual variability in precipitation, characterized by increases in extreme wet and dry years, are likely to impact virtually all terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, to date experimental approaches have yet to explicitly test how ecosystem processes respond to multiple levels of climatic extremity, limiting our understanding of how ecosystems will respond to forecast increases in the magnitude of climate extremes. Here we report the results of a replicated regression experimental approach, in which we imposed 9 and 11 levels of growing season precipitation amount and extremity in mesic grassland during 2015 and 2016, respectively. Each level corresponded to a specific percentile of the long-term record, which produced a large gradient of soil moisture conditions that ranged from extreme wet to extreme dry. In both 2015 and 2016, asymptotic responses to water availability were observed for soil respiration. This asymmetry was driven in part by transitions between soil moisture versus temperature constraints on respiration as conditions became increasingly dry versus increasingly wet. In 2015, aboveground net primary production (ANPP) exhibited asymmetric responses to precipitation that largely mirrored those of soil respiration. In total, our results suggest that in this mesic ecosystem, these two carbon cycle processes were more sensitive to extreme drought than to extreme wet years. Future work will assess ANPP responses for 2016, soil nutrient supply and physiological responses of the dominant plant species. Future efforts are needed to compare our findings across a diverse array of ecosystem types, and in particular how the timing and magnitude of precipitation events may modify the response of ecosystem processes to increasing magnitudes of precipitation extremes.
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Clark, Deborah A
2004-03-29
How tropical rainforests are responding to the ongoing global changes in atmospheric composition and climate is little studied and poorly understood. Although rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could enhance forest productivity, increased temperatures and drought are likely to diminish it. The limited field data have produced conflicting views of the net impacts of these changes so far. One set of studies has seemed to point to enhanced carbon uptake; however, questions have arisen about these findings, and recent experiments with tropical forest trees indicate carbon saturation of canopy leaves and no biomass increase under enhanced CO2. Other field observations indicate decreased forest productivity and increased tree mortality in recent years of peak temperatures and drought (strong El Niño episodes). To determine current climatic responses of forests around the world tropics will require careful annual monitoring of ecosystem performance in representative forests. To develop the necessary process-level understanding of these responses will require intensified experimentation at the whole-tree and stand levels. Finally, a more complete understanding of tropical rainforest carbon cycling is needed for determining whether these ecosystems are carbon sinks or sources now, and how this status might change during the next century.
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Ireland, Kathryn B; Hansen, Andrew J; Keane, Robert E; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L
2018-06-01
Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ireland, Kathryn B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L.
2018-06-01
Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.
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AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Donnell, D.; Feichter, J.
2009-12-01
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth’s climate by absorbing and scattering solar radiation (the direct effect) and by altering the properties of clouds (indirect effects). Measurements have shown that a substantial fraction of the tropospheric aerosol burden consists of organic compounds. Hundreds of different organic species have been identified. While progress has been made in the understanding of the role of certain aerosol types in the climate system, that of organic aerosols remains poorly understood and the climate influences resulting from their presence poorly constrained. Organic aerosols are emitted directly from the surface (primary organic aerosols, POA) and are also formed in the atmosphere from gaseous precursors by oxidation reactions (secondary organic aerosols, SOA). Both biogenic and anthropogenic precursors have been identified. Biogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are known to be climate-dependent. Thus, a bi-directional dependency exists between the biosphere and the atmosphere, whereby aerosols of biogenic origin influence the climate system, which in turn affects biogenic aerosol precursor production. This study builds upon the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5/HAM and adds techniques to model SOA as well as the necessary global emission inventories. Emission of biogenic precursors is calculated online. Formation of SOA is modeled by the well-known two-product model of SOA formation. SOA is subject to the same aerosol microphysics and sink processes as other modeled species (sulphate, black carbon, primary organic carbon, sea salt and dust). The aerosol radiative effects are calculated on a size resolved basis, and the aerosol scheme is coupled to the model cloud microphysics, permitting estimation of both direct and indirect aerosol effects. The following results will be discussed: (i) Estimation of the direct and indirect effects of biogenic and anthropogenic SOA, (ii) Estimation of the sign and magnitude of the biospheric feedback (through biogenic aerosol precursor emission) on the climate system, and (iii) Identification of physical processes and aerosol physical properties that need further experimental investigation in order to improve our understanding of the climate impact of SOA
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro
2014-05-01
Topical research investigating climate, land-use and management scenarios in the Segura catchment (SE Spain), depicts a landscape at high-risk of, quite literally, deserting agriculture. Land degradation in the semi-arid region of SE Spain is characterized by water shortage, high erosion rates and salinization, increasingly exacerbated by climatic changes, scarce vegetation cover and detrimental farming practices. Future climate scenarios predict increases in aridity, variability and intensity of rainfall events, leading to increasing pressure on scarce soil and water resources. This study conceptualized the impending crisis of agro-ecological systems of the Segura basin (18800 km2) as a crisis of ecosystem service deterioration. In light of existing land degradation drivers and future climate scenarios, the potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies was evaluated to target three priority ecosystem services (water provision, sediment retention and carbon sequestration) as a means to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation. A preceding thorough process of stakeholder engagement (as part of the EU funded DESIRE project) indicated five SLM technologies for potential implementation, all with a focus upon reducing soil erosion, increasing soil water holding capacity and soil organic matter content. These technologies have been tested for over four years in local experimental field plots, and have provided results on the local effects upon individual environmental parameters. Despite the growing emphasis witnessed in literature upon the context-specificity which characterizes adaptation solutions, the frequent analysis at the field scale is limited in both scope and utility. There is a need to investigate the effects of adaptive SLM solutions at wider, regional scales. Thus, this study modeled the cumulative effect of each of the five selected SLM technologies with InVEST, a spatial analyst tool designed for ecosystem service quantification and valuation. Scenario impacts upon the three prioritized ecosystem services were evaluated under present and expected future climate conditions (IPCC A1B scenario storyline for 2050) using ensemble regional climate model predictions. Results are given for both the entire Segura catchment as well as for delineated sub-catchments. This study's value lies in providing relevant stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts. Furthermore, this research hopes to contribute towards the mainstreaming of the ecosystem services concept in land management policy and research, and thus to familiarize relevant stakeholders with the concept, facilitating scaling-up processes by communicating the necessity and a means to successfully achieve climate adaptation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong
2017-11-01
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.
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Dib, Alain E; Johnson, Chris E; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Hayhoe, Katharine
2014-05-01
Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models - CENTURY and RothC - were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear-cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear-cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady-state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate-change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO(2) emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO(2) . The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8-30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO(2) levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO(2) conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia
2014-01-01
Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments. PMID:24757012
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McFarlane, Karis J.
Boreal peatlands contain large amounts of old carbon, protected by anaerobic and cold conditions. Climate change could result in favorable conditions for the microbial decomposition and release of this old peat carbon as CO2 or CH4 back into the atmosphere. Our goal was to test the potential for this positive biological feedback to climate change at SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Response Under Climatic and Environmental Change), a manipulation experiment funded by DOE and occurring in a forested bog in Minnesota. Taking advantage of LLNL’s capabilities and expertise in chemical and isotopic signatures we found that carbon emissions from peat weremore » dominated by recently fixed photosynthates, even after short-term experimental warming. We also found that subsurface hydrologic transport was surprisingly rapid at SPRUCE, supplying microbes with young dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We also identified which microbes oxidize CH4 to CO2 at SPRUCE and found that the most active of these also fix N2 (which means they can utilize atmospheric N, making it accessible for other microbes and plants). These results reflect important interactions between hydrology, carbon cycling, and nitrogen cycling present at the bog and relevant to interpreting experimental results and modeling the wetland response to experimental treatments. LLNL involvement at SPRUCE continues through collaborations and a small contract with ORNL, the lead lab for the SPRUCE experiment.« less
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Engaging the public on climate change issues
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bean, Alice
2016-03-01
As a Jefferson Science Fellow from August 2014-August 2015, Alice Bean worked with the Office of Religion and Global Affairs at the U.S. Department of State on climate change and environmental issues. The Office of Religion and Global Affairs works to implement the National Strategy on Religious Leader and Faith Community Engagement which includes building partnerships on environmental issues. With the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties meeting 21 in December, 2015 in Paris, there were and continue to be great opportunities for physicists to interact with policy makers and the general public. As an experimental particle physicist, much was learned about climate change science, how the public views scientists, how science can influence policy, but most especially how to communicate about science.
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Increased susceptibility to fungal disease accompanies adaptation to drought in Brassica rapa.
O'Hara, Niamh B; Rest, Joshua S; Franks, Steven J
2016-01-01
Recent studies have demonstrated adaptive evolutionary responses to climate change, but little is known about how these responses may influence ecological interactions with other organisms, including natural enemies. We used a resurrection experiment in the greenhouse to examine the effect of evolutionary responses to drought on the susceptibility of Brassica rapa plants to a fungal pathogen, Alternaria brassicae. In agreement with previous studies in this population, we found an evolutionary shift to earlier flowering postdrought, which was previously shown to be adaptive. Here, we report the novel finding that postdrought descendant plants were also more susceptible to disease, indicating a rapid evolutionary shift to increased susceptibility. This was accompanied by an evolutionary shift to increased specific leaf area (thinner leaves) following drought. We found that flowering time and disease susceptibility displayed plastic responses to experimental drought treatments, but that this plasticity did not match the direction of evolution, indicating that plastic and evolutionary responses to changes in climate can be opposed. The observed evolutionary shift to increased disease susceptibility accompanying adaptation to drought provides evidence that even if populations can rapidly adapt in response to climate change, evolution in other traits may have ecological effects that could make species more vulnerable. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Short-Term Behavior of Slag Concretes Exposed to a Real In Situ Mediterranean Climate Environment
Sánchez, Isidro
2017-01-01
At present, one of the most suitable ways to get a more sustainable cement industry is to reduce the CO2 emissions generated during cement production. In order to reach that goal, the use of ground granulated blast-furnace slag as clinker replacement is becoming increasingly popular. Although the effects of this addition in the properties of cementitious materials are influenced by their hardening conditions, there are not too many experimental studies in which slag concretes have been exposed to real in situ environments. Then, the main objective of this research is to study the short-term effects of exposure to real Mediterranean climate environment of an urban site, where the action of airborne chlorides from sea water and the presence of CO2 are combined, in the microstructure and service properties of a commercial slag cement concrete, compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC). The microstructure was studied with mercury intrusion porosimetry. The effective porosity, capillary suction coefficient, chloride migration coefficient, carbonation front depth, and compressive strength were also analyzed. Considering the results obtained, slag concretes exposed to a real in situ Mediterranean climate environment show good service properties in the short-term (180 days), in comparison with OPC. PMID:28786936
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Urbanisation induces early flowering: evidence from Platanus acerifolia and Prunus cerasus
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mimet, A.; Pellissier, V.; Quénol, H.; Aguejdad, R.; Dubreuil, V.; Rozé, F.
2009-05-01
The effect of towns on plant phenology, i.e. advancement of spring development compared with a rural environment, via the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, has been shown for many towns in many countries. This work combines experimental and observational methodology to provide a better and deeper view of climatic habitat in an urban context with a view to understanding the relationship between plant development and urban climate on the intra-urban scale (by taking into account town structure). A dense network of 17 meteorological stations was set up in Rennes, France, enabling us to identify and quantify climatic changes associated with the UHI. Meanwhile, phenological observations were made during early spring (March and April) in 2005 on Platanus acerifolia and Prunus cerasus to study the relationship between climatic and phenological data. The results show that there is both a climatic gradient and a developmental gradient corresponding to the type of urbanisation in the town of Rennes. The town influences plant phenology by reducing the diurnal temperature range and by increasing the minimum temperature as one approaches the town centre. The influence of ground cover type (plants or buildings) on development is also shown. The developmental phases of preflowering and flowering are influenced to differing extents by climatic variables. The period during which climatic variables are effective before a given developmental phase varies considerably. The preflowering phases are best correlated with the mean of the minimum air temperature for the 15-day period before the observation, whereas flowering appears to be more dependent on the mean of the daily diurnal temperature range for the 8 days preceding the observation.
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Emergent properties of climate-vegetation feedbacks in the North American Monsoon Macrosystem
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.
2012-12-01
The ability of ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and associated disturbances (e.g. wildfires, spread of invasive species) is greatly affected by the stability of feedback interactions between climate and vegetation. In order to study climate-vegetation interactions, such as CO2 and H2O exchange in the North American Monsoon System (NAMS), we plan to couple a community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) used in regional climate models (WRF) with an individual based, spatially explicit vegetation model (ECOTONE). Individual based modeling makes it possible to link individual plant traits with properties of plant communities. Community properties, such as species composition and species distribution arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with each other, and with their environment. Plants interact with each other through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen), and the outcome of these interactions depends on the properties of the plant community and the environment itself. In turn, the environment is affected by the resulting change in community structure, which may have an impact on the drivers of climate change. First, we performed sensitivity tests of ECOTONE to assess its ability to reproduce vegetation distribution in the NAMS. We compared the land surface model and ECOTONE with regard to their capability to accurately simulate soil moisture, CO2 flux and above ground biomass. For evaluating the models we used the eddy-correlation sensible and latent heat fluxes, CO2 flux and observations of other climate and environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and moisture) from the Santa Rita experimental range. The model intercomparison helped us understand the advantages and disadvantages of each model, providing us guidance for coupling the community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) with ECOTONE.
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Urbanisation induces early flowering: evidence from Platanus acerifolia and Prunus cerasus.
Mimet, A; Pellissier, V; Quénol, H; Aguejdad, R; Dubreuil, V; Rozé, F
2009-05-01
The effect of towns on plant phenology, i.e. advancement of spring development compared with a rural environment, via the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, has been shown for many towns in many countries. This work combines experimental and observational methodology to provide a better and deeper view of climatic habitat in an urban context with a view to understanding the relationship between plant development and urban climate on the intra-urban scale (by taking into account town structure). A dense network of 17 meteorological stations was set up in Rennes, France, enabling us to identify and quantify climatic changes associated with the UHI. Meanwhile, phenological observations were made during early spring (March and April) in 2005 on Platanus acerifolia and Prunus cerasus to study the relationship between climatic and phenological data. The results show that there is both a climatic gradient and a developmental gradient corresponding to the type of urbanisation in the town of Rennes. The town influences plant phenology by reducing the diurnal temperature range and by increasing the minimum temperature as one approaches the town centre. The influence of ground cover type (plants or buildings) on development is also shown. The developmental phases of preflowering and flowering are influenced to differing extents by climatic variables. The period during which climatic variables are effective before a given developmental phase varies considerably. The preflowering phases are best correlated with the mean of the minimum air temperature for the 15-day period before the observation, whereas flowering appears to be more dependent on the mean of the daily diurnal temperature range for the 8 days preceding the observation.
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High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jin-Song
2016-11-01
Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, "what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?", but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.
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Tempest: Tools for Addressing the Needs of Next-Generation Climate Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ullrich, P. A.; Guerra, J. E.; Pinheiro, M. C.; Fong, J.
2015-12-01
Tempest is a comprehensive simulation-to-science infrastructure that tackles the needs of next-generation, high-resolution, data intensive climate modeling activities. This project incorporates three key components: TempestDynamics, a global modeling framework for experimental numerical methods and high-performance computing; TempestRemap, a toolset for arbitrary-order conservative and consistent remapping between unstructured grids; and TempestExtremes, a suite of detection and characterization tools for identifying weather extremes in large climate datasets. In this presentation, the latest advances with the implementation of this framework will be discussed, and a number of projects now utilizing these tools will be featured.
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Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal.
Bårdsen, Bard-Jørgen; Fauchald, Per; Tveraa, Torkild; Langeland, Knut; Yoccoz, Nigel Gilles; Ims, Rolf Anker
2008-03-01
When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.
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Plant functional types define magnitude of drought response in peatland CO2 exchange.
Kuiper, Jan J; Mooij, Wolf M; Bragazza, Luca; Robroek, Bjorn J M
2014-01-01
Peatlands are important sinks for atmospheric carbon (C), yet the role of plant functional types (PFTs) for C sequestration under climatic perturbations is still unclear. A plant-removal experiment was used to study the importance of vascular PFTs for the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) during (i.e., resistance) and after (i.e., recovery) an experimental drought. The removal of PFTs caused a decrease of NEE, but the rate differed between microhabitats (i.e., hummocks and lawns) and the type of PFTs. Ericoid removal had a large effect on NEE in hummocks, while the graminoids played a major role in the lawns. The removal of PFTs did not affect the resistance or the recovery after the experimental drought. We argue that the response of Sphagnum mosses (the only PFT present in all treatments) to drought is dominant over that of coexisting PFTs. However, we observed that the moment in time when the system switched from C sink to C source during the drought was controlled by the vascular PFTs. In the light of climate change, the shifts in species composition or even the loss of certain PFTs are expected to strongly affect the future C dynamics in response to environmental stress.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flubacher, Moritz; Sedlmeier, Katrin; Lechthaler, Filippo; Rohrer, Mario; Cristobal, Lizet; Vinogradova, Alexandra
2017-04-01
In the semi-arid Altiplano in Peru, smallholder farmers are extremely exposed to climatic hazards like drought, frost and hail. These unfavorable weather and climate events can lead to significant crop losses and thereby provoke periods of food insecurity for subsistence farmers. The use of specific climate information can serve as an adaptation strategy to reduce the impact of these natural hazards. In this context, the Climandes project (a project of the Global Framework for Climate Services led by WMO) aims at developing user-tailored seasonal forecast products for the agricultural sector in the Peruvian Andes such as indices on increased frost risk, the occurrence of long dry periods, or the start of the rainy season. In order to develop such user-tailored climate information and link it efficiently to the existing implementation context, it is important to understand the complex interrelation between climate variability and change, socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation limits. Moreover, as it has been widely shown, the process of making climate information useful for end-users, in particular for smallholder farmers in developing countries, remains a considerable challenge due to existing cognitive, cultural and institutional constraints. In this sense, it is necessary to identify these constraints and formulate strategies to overcome them. While there exist different studies about climate change and anomalies in Puno, there is no consolidated evidence on the corresponding socio-economic vulnerabilities in the specific agricultural context of Puno. In order to fill this gap, we conducted a field survey collecting primary data in the Andean highlands based on a representative sample of 726 smallholder farmers in the region of Puno (Peru). The assessment primarily focused on exploring smallholders' agro-climatic risk exposure, socio-economic profiles, existing coping strategies as well as prevailing barriers to utilization of science-based climate information. The study was complemented with an artefactual experimental game performed with 176 smallholders to identify and describe their risk preferences. The existing economic literature shows that farmers' risk preferences generally play a decisive role for agricultural decision-making indicating the importance of understanding farmer's risk profile when evaluating the potential use of climate information at the individual level. First results indicate that smallholders in the region are regularly exposed to extreme weather events such as frost, hailstorms and droughts. Under these conditions, farmers often do not have the capacity and sufficient resources to prevent periods of food insecurity at the end of the growing period. Hereby climate information can support the agricultural production decisions and improve food security but only if developed in close collaboration with the end-users.
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Estimating daily global solar radiation by day of the year in Algeria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aoun, Nouar; Bouchouicha, Kada
2017-05-01
This study presents six empirical models based on the day-of-the-year number for estimating global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For this case study, 21 years of experimental data sets for 21 cities over the whole Algerian territory are utilized to develop these models for each city and for all of Algeria. In this study, the territory of Algeria was divided into four different climatic zones, i.e., Arid, Semi-arid, Highlands and Mediterranean. The accuracy of the all-Algeria model was tested for each city and for each climate zone. To evaluate the accuracy of the models, the RMSE, rRMSE, MABE, MAPE, and R, which are the most commonly applied statistical parameters, were utilized. The results show that the six developed models provide excellent predictions for global solar radiation for each city and for all-Algeria. Furthermore, the model showing the greatest accuracy is the sine and cosine wave trigonometric model.
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Elevated temperature alters carbon cycling in a model microbial community
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mosier, A.; Li, Z.; Thomas, B. C.; Hettich, R. L.; Pan, C.; Banfield, J. F.
2013-12-01
Earth's climate is regulated by biogeochemical carbon exchanges between the land, oceans and atmosphere that are chiefly driven by microorganisms. Microbial communities are therefore indispensible to the study of carbon cycling and its impacts on the global climate system. In spite of the critical role of microbial communities in carbon cycling processes, microbial activity is currently minimally represented or altogether absent from most Earth System Models. Method development and hypothesis-driven experimentation on tractable model ecosystems of reduced complexity, as presented here, are essential for building molecularly resolved, benchmarked carbon-climate models. Here, we use chemoautotropic acid mine drainage biofilms as a model community to determine how elevated temperature, a key parameter of global climate change, regulates the flow of carbon through microbial-based ecosystems. This study represents the first community proteomics analysis using tandem mass tags (TMT), which enable accurate, precise, and reproducible quantification of proteins. We compare protein expression levels of biofilms growing over a narrow temperature range expected to occur with predicted climate changes. We show that elevated temperature leads to up-regulation of proteins involved in amino acid metabolism and protein modification, and down-regulation of proteins involved in growth and reproduction. Closely related bacterial genotypes differ in their response to temperature: Elevated temperature represses carbon fixation by two Leptospirillum genotypes, whereas carbon fixation is significantly up-regulated at higher temperature by a third closely related genotypic group. Leptospirillum group III bacteria are more susceptible to viral stress at elevated temperature, which may lead to greater carbon turnover in the microbial food web through the release of viral lysate. Overall, this proteogenomics approach revealed the effects of climate change on carbon cycling pathways and other microbial activities. When scaled to more complex ecosystems and integrated into Earth System Models, this approach could significantly improve predictions of global carbon-climate feedbacks. Experiments such as these are a critical first step designed at understanding climate change impacts in order to better predict ecosystem adaptations, assess the viability of mitigation strategies, and inform relevant policy decisions.
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Long-Term Environmental Research Programs - Evolving Capacity for Discovery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Swanson, F. J.
2008-12-01
Long-term forestry, watershed, and ecological research sites have become critical, productive nodes for environmental science research and in some cases for work in the social sciences and humanities. The Forest Service's century-old Experimental Forests and Ranges and the National Science Foundation's 28- year-old Long-Term Ecological Research program have been remarkably productive in both basic and applied sciences, including characterization of acid rain and old-growth ecosystems and development of forest, watershed, and range management systems for commercial and other land use objectives. A review of recent developments suggests steps to enhance the function of collections of long-term research sites as interactive science networks. The programs at these sites have evolved greatly, especially over the past few decades, as the questions addressed, disciplines engaged, and degree of science integration have grown. This is well displayed by small, experimental watershed studies, which first were used for applied hydrology studies then more fundamental biogeochemical studies and now examination of complex ecosystem processes; all capitalizing on the legacy of intensive studies and environmental monitoring spanning decades. In very modest ways these collections of initially independent sites have functioned increasingly as integrated research networks addressing inter-site questions by using common experimental designs, being part of a single experiment, and examining long-term data in a common analytical framework. The network aspects include data sharing via publicly-accessible data-harvester systems for climate and streamflow data. The layering of one research or environmental monitoring network upon another facilitates synergies. Changing climate and atmospheric chemistry highlight a need to use these networks as continental-scale observatory systems for assessing the impacts of environmental change on ecological services. To better capitalize on long-term research sites and networks, agencies and universities 1) need to encourage collaboration among sites and between science and land manager communities while 2) maintaining long- term studies and monitoring efforts, and staffing the collaboration in each partner organization, including positions specifically designated as liaisons among the participating communities.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schubert, Siegfried
2012-01-01
Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Long-term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire show that air temperature has increased by about 1 °C over the last half century. The warmer climate has caused significant declines in snow depth, snow water equivalent, and snow cover duration. Paradoxically, it has been su...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trautz, A.; Smits, K. M.; Illangasekare, T. H.; Schulte, P.
2014-12-01
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of soil conditions (i.e. soil type, saturation) and atmospheric forcings (i.e. velocity, temperature, relative humidity) on the momentum, mass, and temperature boundary layers. The atmospheric conditions tested represent those typically found in semi-arid and arid climates and the soil conditions simulate the three stages of evaporation. The data generated will help identify the importance of different soil conditions and atmospheric forcings with respect to land-atmospheric interactions which will have direct implications on future numerical studies investigating the effects of turbulent air flow on evaporation. The experimental datasets generated for this study were performed using a unique climate controlled closed-circuit wind tunnel/porous media facility located at the Center for Experimental Study of Subsurface Environmental Processes (CESEP) at the Colorado School of Mines. The test apparatus consisting of a 7.3 m long porous media tank and wind tunnel, were outfitted with a sensor network to carefully measure wind velocity, air and soil temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, and soil air pressure. Boundary layer measurements were made between the heights of 2 and 500 mm above the soil tank under constant conditions (i.e. wind velocity, temperature, relative humidity). The soil conditions (e.g. soil type, soil moisture) were varied between datasets to analyze their impact on the boundary layers. Experimental results show that the momentum boundary layer is very sensitive to the applied atmospheric conditions and soil conditions to a much less extent. Increases in velocity above porous media leads to momentum boundary layer thinning and closely reflect classical flat plate theory. The mass and thermal boundary layers are directly dependent on both atmospheric and soil conditions. Air pressure within the soil is independent of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity - wind velocity and soil moisture effects were observed. This data provides important insight into future work of accurately modeling the exchange processes associated with evaporation under various turbulent atmospheric conditions.
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Opportunities and Challenges in Using Research to Facilitate Climate Communication Collaborations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akerlof, K.; Johnson, B. B.; Nackerman, C. J.; Maibach, E.
2014-12-01
Climate change represents the worst of wicked environmental problems, requiring collaborations among individuals and groups that cross public, private and voluntary sectors on a global scale to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for impacts. The Climate Communication Consortium of Maryland represents such a collaboration on a state level for the purpose of supporting governments, non-profits, businesses and universities in communicating with the public about climate and energy within the context of multiple frames, such as public health, extreme weather, and coastal resilience. The collaboration was developed using communication research as an organizational framework - providing data from yearly public opinion surveys on Marylanders' attitudes, behaviors and policy support, and a variety of other qualitative and quantitative studies. In this presentation, we will highlight four dimensions of the use of research within collaborative organizational climate communication that can lead to success, or impediments: 1) individual organizational ability and resources for using audience data; 2) the linking of research questions to programmatic development goals and processes; 3) the weighing of audience- versus communicator-oriented values and priorities; and 4) identification of overarching communication objectives that span individual organizational interests. We will illustrate these dimensions using findings from surveys of our member organizations describing the types of barriers organizations face in communicating about climate change effectively, including their use of formative and evaluative research, and will discuss some of the findings from our public opinion and experimental research, illustrating the ways in which these findings influenced programmatic development and were used by Consortium member organizations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.
2017-12-01
There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.
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Climate Effects on Plant Range Distributions and Community Structure of Pacific Northwest Prairies
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bridgham, Scott D.; Johnson, Bart
2013-09-26
Pacific Northwest (PNW) prairies are an imperiled ecosystem that contain a large number of plant species with high fidelity to this habitat. The few remaining high-quality PNW prairies harbor a number of sensitive, rare, and endangered plant species that may be further at-risk with climate change. Thus, PNW prairies are an excellent model system to examine how climate change will affect the distribution of native plant species in grassland sites. Our experimental objectives were to determine: (i) how climate change will affect the range distribution of native plant species; (ii) what life history stages are most sensitive to climate changemore » in a group of key indicator native species; (iii) the robustness of current restoration techniques and suites of species to changing climate, and in particular, the relative competitiveness of native species versus exotic invasive species; and (iv) the effects of climate change on carbon and nutrient cycling and soil-microbial-plant feedbacks. We addressed these objectives by experimentally increasing temperature 2.5 to 3.0 ºC above ambient with overhead infrared lamps and increasing wet-season precipitation by 20% above ambient in three upland prairie sites in central-western Washington, central-western Oregon, and southwestern Oregon from fall 2010 through 2012. Additional precipitation was applied within 2 weeks of when it fell so precipitation intensity was increased, particularly during the winter rainy season but with minimal additions during the summer dry season. These three sites also represent a 520-km natural climate gradient of increasing degree of severity of Mediterranean climate from north to south. After removing the extant vegetation, we planted a diverse suite of 12 native species that have their northern range limit someplace within the PNW in each experimental plot. An additional 20 more wide-spread native species were also planted into each plot. We found that recruitment of plant species within their ranges was negatively impacted by increased temperatures, but for species planted north of their current range, increased temperature was neutral. However, for surviving plants climate treatments and site-specific factors (e.g., nutrient availability) were the strongest predictors of plant growth and seed set. When recruitment and plant growth are considered together, increased temperatures are negative within a species current range but beyond this range they become positive. Germination was the most critical stage for plant response across all sites and climate treatments. Our results underscore the importance of including plant vital rates into models that are examining climate change effects on plant ranges. Warming altered plant community composition, decreased diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities over time becoming more like ambient communities further south. In particular, warming increased the cover of annual introduced species, suggesting that the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing invasion by this plant functional group in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south is at least in part due to climate. Our results suggest that with the projected increase in drought severity with climate change, Pacific Northwest prairies may face an increase of invasion by annuals, similar to what has been observed in California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem function. Warming generally increased nutrient availability and plant productivity across all sites. The seasonality of soil respiration responses to heating were strongly dependent on the Mediterranean climate gradient in the PNW, with heating responses being generally positive during periods of adequate soil moisture and becoming neutral to negative during periods of low soil moisture. The asynchrony between temperature and precipitation may make soils less sensitive to warming. Precipitation effects were minimal for all measured responses indicating the importance of increased temperatures in driving biotic responses to climate change in Mediterranean ecosystems. However, substantially increased precipitation during the dry season would almost certainly have profound effects, but the opposite is predicted by current climate change models for the PNW. A manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a natural climate gradient provides unique insights into the degree to which biotic responses to climate change are regionally consistent and site-dependent. Perhaps surprisingly, most climatic effects that we observed were either consistent in the three sites or could be readily interpreted in terms of the gradient of increasing intensity of the Mediterranean climate from north to south.« less
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Smits, Kathleen; Eagen, Victoria; Trautz, Andrew
2015-01-01
Evaporation is directly influenced by the interactions between the atmosphere, land surface and soil subsurface. This work aims to experimentally study evaporation under various surface boundary conditions to improve our current understanding and characterization of this multiphase phenomenon as well as to validate numerical heat and mass transfer theories that couple Navier-Stokes flow in the atmosphere and Darcian flow in the porous media. Experimental data were collected using a unique soil tank apparatus interfaced with a small climate controlled wind tunnel. The experimental apparatus was instrumented with a suite of state of the art sensor technologies for the continuous and autonomous collection of soil moisture, soil thermal properties, soil and air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. This experimental apparatus can be used to generate data under well controlled boundary conditions, allowing for better control and gathering of accurate data at scales of interest not feasible in the field. Induced airflow at several distinct wind speeds over the soil surface resulted in unique behavior of heat and mass transfer during the different evaporative stages. PMID:26131928
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Impact of Active Climate Control Seats on Energy Use, Fuel Use, and CO2 Emissions
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P; Titov, Eugene V
A project was developed through collaboration between Gentherm and NREL to determine the impact of climate control seats for light-duty vehicles in the United States. The project used a combination of experimentation and analysis, with experimental results providing critical input to the analysis process. First, outdoor stationary vehicle testing was performed at NREL's facility in Golden, CO using multiple occupants. Two pre-production Ford Focus electric vehicles were used for testing; one containing a standard inactive seat and the second vehicle containing a Gentherm climate control seat. Multiple maximum cool-down and steady-state cooling tests were performed in late summer conditions. Themore » two vehicles were used to determine the increase in cabin temperature when using the climate control seat in comparison to the baseline vehicle cabin temperature with a standard seat at the equivalent occupant whole-body sensation. The experiments estimated that on average, the climate control seats allowed for a 2.61 degrees Celsius increase in vehicle cabin temperature at equivalent occupant body sensation compared to the baseline vehicle. The increased cabin air temperature along with their measured energy usage were then used as inputs to the national analysis process. The national analysis process was constructed from full vehicle cabin, HVAC, and propulsion models previously developed by NREL. In addition, three representative vehicle platforms, vehicle usage patterns, and vehicle registration weighted environmental data were integrated into the analysis process. Both the baseline vehicle and the vehicle with climate control seats were simulated, using the experimentally determined cabin temperature offset of 2.61degrees Celsius and added seat energy as inputs to the climate control seat vehicle model. The U.S. composite annual fuel use savings for the climate control seats over the baseline A/C system was determined to be 5.1 gallons of gasoline per year per vehicle, corresponding to 4.0 grams of CO2/mile savings. Finally, the potential impact of 100 percent adoption of climate control seats on U.S. light-duty fleet A/C fuel use was calculated to be 1.3 billion gallons of gasoline annually with a corresponding CO2 emissions reduction of 12.7 million tons. Direct comparison of the impact of the CCS to the ventilated seat off-cycle credit was not possible because the NREL analysis calculated a combined car/truck savings and the baseline A/C CO2 emissions were higher than EPA. To enable comparison, the CCS national A/C CO2 emissions were split into car/truck components and the ventilated seat credit was scaled up. The split CO2 emissions savings due to the CCS were 3.5 g/mi for a car and 4.4 g/mi for a truck. The CCS saved an additional 2.0 g/mi and 2.5 g/mi over the adjusted ventilated seat credit for a car and truck, respectively.« less
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ClimateSpark: An In-memory Distributed Computing Framework for Big Climate Data Analytics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Li, Z.
2016-12-01
Massive array-based climate data is being generated from global surveillance systems and model simulations. They are widely used to analyze the environment problems, such as climate changes, natural hazards, and public health. However, knowing the underlying information from these big climate datasets is challenging due to both data- and computing- intensive issues in data processing and analyzing. To tackle the challenges, this paper proposes ClimateSpark, an in-memory distributed computing framework to support big climate data processing. In ClimateSpark, the spatiotemporal index is developed to enable Apache Spark to treat the array-based climate data (e.g. netCDF4, HDF4) as native formats, which are stored in Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) without any preprocessing. Based on the index, the spatiotemporal query services are provided to retrieve dataset according to a defined geospatial and temporal bounding box. The data subsets will be read out, and a data partition strategy will be applied to equally split the queried data to each computing node, and store them in memory as climateRDDs for processing. By leveraging Spark SQL and User Defined Function (UDFs), the climate data analysis operations can be conducted by the intuitive SQL language. ClimateSpark is evaluated by two use cases using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. One use case is to conduct the spatiotemporal query and visualize the subset results in animation; the other one is to compare different climate model outputs using Taylor-diagram service. Experimental results show that ClimateSpark can significantly accelerate data query and processing, and enable the complex analysis services served in the SQL-style fashion.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ross, C.; Ali, G.; Oswald, C. J.; McMillan, H. K.; Walter, K.
2017-12-01
A hydrologic threshold is a critical point in time when runoff behavior rapidly changes, often in response to the activation of specific storage-driven or intensity-driven processes. Hydrologic thresholds can be viewed as characteristic signatures of hydrosystems, which makes them useful for site comparison as long as their presence (or lack thereof) can be evaluated in a standard manner across a range of environments. While several previous studies have successfully identified thresholds at a variety of individual sites, only a limited number have compared dynamics prevailing at the hillslope versus catchment scale, or distinguished the role of storage versus intensity thresholds. The objective of this study was therefore to examine precipitation input thresholds as well as "precipitation minus evapotranspiration" thresholds in environments with contrasted climatic and geographic characteristics. Historical climate and hydrometric datasets were consolidated for one hillslope site located at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (Southeastern USA) and catchments located in the HJ Andrew's Experimental Forest (Northwestern USA), the Catfish Creek Watershed (Canadian prairies), the Experimental Lakes Area (Canadian boreal ecozone), the Tarrawarra catchment (Australia) and the Mahurangi catchment (New Zealand). Individual precipitation-runoff events were delineated using the newly introduced software HydRun to derive event-specific hydrograph parameters as well surrogate measures of antecedent moisture conditions and evapotranspiration in an automated and consistent manner. Various hydrograph parameters were then plotted against those surrogate measures to detect and evaluate site-specific threshold dynamics. Preliminary results show that a range of threshold shapes (e.g., "hockey stick", heaviside and dirac) were observed across sites. The influence of antecedent precipitation on threshold magnitude and shape also appeared stronger at sites with lower topographic relief and drier climate. Future analyses will focus on the interaction between storage and intensity thresholds in order to evaluate the importance of considering both for comparative hydrological studies.
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Bjorkman, Anne D; Vellend, Mark; Frei, Esther R; Henry, Gregory H R
2017-04-01
Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate - for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions - might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here, we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and nonwarmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from three to five populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Storm Water Retention on Three Green Roofs with Distinct Climates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Breach, P. A.; Sims, A.; O'Carroll, D. M.; Robinson, C. E.; Smart, C. C.; Powers, B. S. C.
2014-12-01
As urbanization continues to increase the impact of cities on their surrounding environments, the feasibility of implementing low-impact development such as green roofs is of increasing interest. Green roofs retain and attenuate storm water thereby reducing the load on urban sewer systems. In addition, green roofs can provide insulation and lower roof surface temperature leading to a decrease in building energy load. Green roof technology in North American urban environments remains underused, in part due to a lack of climate appropriate green roof design guidelines. The capacity of a green roof to moderate runoff depends on the storage capacity of the growing medium at the start of a rainfall event. Storage capacity is finite, which makes rapid drainage and evapotranspiration loss critical for maximizing storage capacity between subsequent storms. Here the retention and attenuation of storm events are quantified for experimental green roof sites located in three representative Canadian climates corresponding to; semiarid conditions in Calgary, Alberta, moderate conditions in London, Ontario, and cool and humid conditions in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The storage recovery and storm water retention at each site is modelled using a modified water balance approach. Components of the water balance including evapotranspiration are predicted using climate data collected from 2012 to 2014 at each of the experimental sites. During the measurement period there were over 300 precipitation events ranging from small, frequent events (< 2 mm) to a storm with a 250 year return period. The modeling approach adopted provides a tool for planners to assess the feasibility of implementing green roofs in their respective climates.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Warren, R. F.; Price, J. T.; Goswami, S.
2010-12-01
Successful communication of knowledge to climate change policy makers requires the careful integration of scientific knowledge in an integrated assessment that can be clearly communicated to stakeholders, and which encapsulates the uncertainties in the analysis and conveys the need for using a risk assessment approach. It is important that (i) the system is co-designed with the users (ii) relevant disciplines are included (iii) assumptions made are clear (iv) the robustness of outputs to uncertainties is demonstrated (v) the system is flexible so that it can keep up with changing stakeholder needs and (vi) the results are communicated clearly and are readily accessible. The “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS) is a unique multi-institutional, modular, and flexible integrated assessment system for modeling climate change which fulfils the above six criteria. It differs from other integrated models in being a flexible system allowing various combinations of component modules, to be connected together into alternative integrated assessment models. These modules may be written at different institutions in different computer languages and/or based on different operating systems. Scientists are able determine which particular CIAS coupled model they wish to use through a web portal. This includes the facility to implement Latin hypercube experimental design facilitating formal uncertainty analysis. Further exploration of robustness is possible through the ability to select, for example, alternative hyrdrological or climate models to address the same questions. It has been applied to study future scenarios of climate change mitigation, through for example the AVOIDing dangerous climate change project for DEFRA, in which the avoided impacts (benefits) of alternative climate policies were compared to no-policy baselines. These highlight the potential for mitigation to remove a substantial fraction of the climate change impacts that would otherwise occur; but also show that is not possible to avoid all the impacts, and hence that adaptation will still be required. For example, this has been shown for projections of future European drought. CIAS has also been used for analyses used in the IPCC 4AR and the Stern review. Recent applications include a study of the role of avoided deforestation in climate mitigation, and a study of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. A second web portal, CLIMASCOPE, is being developed for use by stakeholders, currently focusing on the needs of adaptation planners. This will benefit communication by allowing a wide range of users free access to regional climate change projections in simple manner, yet one which encourages risk assessment through encapsulation of the uncertainties in climate change projection. Examples of CLIMASCOPE output that is being made available to stakeholders will be shown.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weeks, S. M.; Pope, A.
2011-12-01
Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider scientific engagement with the public to develop climate literacy. The analysis of 3 successive cohorts of students' journals who followed the same degree module identified that threshold concepts do exist within the field, such as those related to: role of ocean circulation, use of proxy indicators, forcing factors and feedback mechanisms. Once identified, the study looked at possible strategies to overcome these barriers to support student climate literacy. It concluded that the use of threshold concepts could be problematic when trying to improve climate literacy, as each individual has their own concepts they find ';troublesome' that do not necessarily relate to others. For scientists this presents the difficulty of how to develop a strategy that supports the individual that is cost and time effective. However, the study identifies that eLearning can be used effectively to help people understand troublesome knowledge.
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Testing a new application for TOPSIS: monitoring drought and wet periods in Iran
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roshan, Gholamreza; Ghanghermeh, AbdolAzim; Grab, Stefan W.
2018-01-01
Globally, droughts are a recurring major natural disaster owing to below normal precipitation, and are occasionally associated with high temperatures, which together negatively impact upon human health and social, economic, and cultural activities. Drought early warning and monitoring is thus essential for reducing such potential impacts on society. To this end, several experimental methods have previously been proposed for calculating drought, yet these are based almost entirely on precipitation alone. Here, for the first time, and in contrast to previous studies, we use seven climate parameters to establish drought/wet periods; these include: T min, T max, sunshine hours, relative humidity, average rainfall, number of rain days greater than 1 mm, and the ratio of total precipitation to number of days with precipitation, using the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) algorithm. To test the TOPSIS method for different climate zones, six sample stations representing a variety of different climate conditions were used by assigning weight changes to climate parameters, which are then applied to the model, together with multivariate regression analysis. For the six stations tested, model results indicate the lowest errors for Zabol station and maximum errors for Kermanshah. The validation techniques strongly support our proposed new method for calculating and rating drought/wet events using TOPSIS.
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Spatio-temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana.
Exposito-Alonso, Moises; Brennan, Adrian C; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier
2018-06-27
The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness-related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life-history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north-western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north-western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north-western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies.
Faldyn, Matthew J; Hunter, Mark D; Elderd, Bret D
2018-05-01
While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.
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How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?
Zięba, Grzegorz; Fox, Michael G; Copp, Gordon H
2015-01-01
Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts) appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime.
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Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?
Donelson, Jennifer M; Salinas, Santiago; Munday, Philip L; Shama, Lisa N S
2018-01-01
Phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, is an important mechanism that organisms use to cope with rapid climate change. While an increasing number of studies show that plasticity across generations (transgenerational plasticity or TGP) may occur, we have limited understanding of key aspects of TGP, such as the environmental conditions that may promote it, its relationship to within-generation plasticity (WGP) and its role in evolutionary potential. In this review, we consider how the detection of TGP in climate change experiments is affected by the predictability of environmental variation, as well as the timing and magnitude of environmental change cues applied. We also discuss the need to design experiments that are able to distinguish TGP from selection and TGP from WGP in multigenerational experiments. We conclude by suggesting future research directions that build on the knowledge to date and admit the limitations that exist, which will depend on the way environmental change is simulated and the type of experimental design used. Such an approach will open up this burgeoning area of research to a wider variety of organisms and allow better predictive capacity of the role of TGP in the response of organisms to future climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Carbon balance of Arctic tundra under increased snow cover mediated by a plant pathogen
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olofsson, Johan; Ericson, Lars; Torp, Mikaela; Stark, Sari; Baxter, Robert
2011-07-01
Climate change is affecting plant community composition and ecosystem structure, with consequences for ecosystem processes such as carbon storage. Climate can affect plants directly by altering growth rates, and indirectly by affecting predators and herbivores, which in turn influence plants. Diseases are also known to be important for the structure and function of food webs. However, the role of plant diseases in modulating ecosystem responses to a changing climate is poorly understood. This is partly because disease outbreaks are relatively rare and spatially variable, such that that their effects can only be captured in long-term experiments. Here we show that, although plant growth was favoured by the insulating effects of increased snow cover in experimental plots in Sweden, plant biomass decreased over the seven-year study. The decline in biomass was caused by an outbreak of a host-specific parasitic fungus, Arwidssonia empetri, which killed the majority of the shoots of the dominant plant species, Empetrum hermaphroditum, after six years of increased snow cover. After the outbreak of the disease, instantaneous measurements of gross photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon exchange were significantly reduced at midday during the growing season. Our results show that plant diseases can alter and even reverse the effects of a changing climate on tundra carbon balance by altering plant composition.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tfaily, Malak; Cooper, Bill; Kostka,
2014-01-01
A large-scale ecosystem manipulation (Spruce and Peatland Responses under Climatic and Environmental Change, SPRUCE) is being constructed in the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, USA, to determine the effects of climatic forcing on ecosystem processes in northern peatlands. Prior to the initiation of the manipulation, we characterized the solid-phase peat to a depth of 2 meters using a variety of techniques, including peat C:N ratios, 13C and 15N isotopic composition, Fourier Transform Infrared (FT IR), and 13C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (13C NMR). FT IR determined peat humification-levels increased rapidly between and 75 cm, indicating a highly reactive zone. We observedmore » a rapid drop in the abundance of O-alkyl-C, carboxyl-C, and other oxygenated functionalities within this zone and a concomitant increase in the abundance of alkyl- and nitrogen-containing compounds. Below 75-cm, minimal change was observed except that aromatic functionalities accumulated with depth. Incubation studies revealed the highest methane production rates and greatest CH4:CO2 ratios within this and 75 cm zone. Hydrology and surface vegetation played a role in belowground carbon cycling. Radiocarbon signatures of microbial respiration products in deeper porewaters resembled the signatures of dissolved organic carbon rather than solid phase peat, indicating that more recently photosynthesized organic matter fueled the bulk of subsurface microbial respiration. Oxygen-containing functionalities, especially O-alkyl-C, appear to serve as an excellent proxy for soil decomposition rate, and in addition should be a sensitive indicator of the response of the solid phase peat to the climatic manipulation.« less
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Consumers mediate the effects of experimental ocean acidification and warming on primary producers.
Alsterberg, Christian; Eklöf, Johan S; Gamfeldt, Lars; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina
2013-05-21
It is well known that ocean acidification can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we know little about the direct and indirect effects of ocean acidification and also how these effects interact with other features of environmental change such as warming and declining consumer pressure. In this study, we tested whether the presence of consumers (invertebrate mesograzers) influenced the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on benthic microalgae in a seagrass community mesocosm experiment. Net effects of acidification and warming on benthic microalgal biomass and production, as assessed by analysis of variance, were relatively weak regardless of grazer presence. However, partitioning these net effects into direct and indirect effects using structural equation modeling revealed several strong relationships. In the absence of grazers, benthic microalgae were negatively and indirectly affected by sediment-associated microalgal grazers and macroalgal shading, but directly and positively affected by acidification and warming. Combining indirect and direct effects yielded no or weak net effects. In the presence of grazers, almost all direct and indirect climate effects were nonsignificant. Our analyses highlight that (i) indirect effects of climate change may be at least as strong as direct effects, (ii) grazers are crucial in mediating these effects, and (iii) effects of ocean acidification may be apparent only through indirect effects and in combination with other variables (e.g., warming). These findings highlight the importance of experimental designs and statistical analyses that allow us to separate and quantify the direct and indirect effects of multiple climate variables on natural communities.
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Gobler, Christopher J; DePasquale, Elizabeth L; Griffith, Andrew W; Baumann, Hannes
2014-01-01
Low oxygen zones in coastal and open ocean ecosystems have expanded in recent decades, a trend that will accelerate with climatic warming. There is growing recognition that low oxygen regions of the ocean are also acidified, a condition that will intensify with rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Presently, however, the concurrent effects of low oxygen and acidification on marine organisms are largely unknown, as most prior studies of marine hypoxia have not considered pH levels. We experimentally assessed the consequences of hypoxic and acidified water for early life stage bivalves (bay scallops, Argopecten irradians, and hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria), marine organisms of significant economic and ecological value and sensitive to climate change. In larval scallops, experimental and naturally-occurring acidification (pH, total scale = 7.4-7.6) reduced survivorship (by >50%), low oxygen (30-50 µM) inhibited growth and metamorphosis (by >50%), and the two stressors combined produced additively negative outcomes. In early life stage clams, however, hypoxic waters led to 30% higher mortality, while acidified waters significantly reduced growth (by 60%). Later stage clams were resistant to hypoxia or acidification separately but experienced significantly (40%) reduced growth rates when exposed to both conditions simultaneously. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that the consequences of low oxygen and acidification for early life stage bivalves, and likely other marine organisms, are more severe than would be predicted by either individual stressor and thus must be considered together when assessing how ocean animals respond to these conditions both today and under future climate change scenarios.
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Burger, Claudia; Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Both, Christiaan
2013-01-01
Climate change leads to rapid, differential changes in phenology across trophic levels, often resulting in temporal mismatches between predators and their prey. If a species cannot easily adjust its timing, it can adapt by choosing a new breeding location with a later phenology of its prey. In this study, we experimentally investigated whether long-distance dispersal to northern breeding grounds with a later phenology could be a feasible process to restore the match between timing of breeding and peak food abundance and thus improve reproductive success. Here, we report the successful translocation of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to natural breeding sites 560 km to the Northeast. We expected translocated birds to have a fitness advantage with respect to environmental phenology, but to potentially pay costs through the lack of other locally adapted traits. Translocated individuals started egg laying 11 days earlier than northern control birds, which were translocated only within the northern site. The number of fledglings produced was somewhat lower in translocated birds, compared to northern controls, and fledglings were in lower body condition. Translocated individuals were performing not significantly different to control birds that remained at the original southern site. The lack of advantage of the translocated individuals most likely resulted from the exceptionally cold spring in which the experiment was carried out. Our results, however, suggest that pied flycatchers can successfully introduce their early breeding phenotype after dispersing to more northern areas, and thus that adaptation through dispersal is a viable option for populations that get locally maladapted through climate change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crimi, Pietro
2017-04-01
In education to issues of environmental sustainability and the use of renewable energy resources, there are the existing laboratory teaching methodologies in Superior School "A. Volta" in Palermo (Italy) for acquisition, processing and control network of agro-meteorological data on the local area. This station was planned to allow students practical multidisciplinary learning experiences in the field of agro-meteorological applications. The School started a few months ago a project of MIUR (Italian Ministry of Education) that updates the lab through the most innovative digital technologies in the field of mechatronics, domotic and sustainable energy, that are supported by the latest needs of scientific-educational multimedia. It is an educational training that intends to implement a data collection center agro-meteorological on "digital platforms," informational purposes and applications, on current issues of climate changes and their consequences in Sicily (Italy). This active learning will interconnect the data collected from the station weather and climate of the school with those locally and regionally, with "weather-climatic patterns" correlations that are implemented in the Mediterranean area (International Program "GAW-Global Atmosphere Watch"). For this reason were enabled synergies with two major public scientific research and acquisition services-data disclosure (ENEA and SIAS-Agrometeorological Information Service, Sicily Region), both to energy efficiency of the School Station, both to support data and digital applications in GIS, with agro-meteorological services to companies operating in the agricultural and environmental sustainability, high consideration themes in European Programming. A branch of this training course is the entrepreneurship education, carried out by a few years in School with the development of "experimental models" for the creation of "innovation clusters" to make entrepreneurial experience since school, creating/managing mini-companies. In the European educational program (Erasmus + KA3) called "Innovation Cluster for Entrepreneurship Education (ICEE)", aimed at enhancing the students' creativity and entrepreneurship, one of the mini-companies, created by students at the Institute, has developed and produced with innovative software a prototype automated system, a mini-greenhouse powered by solar energy, capable of recreating the habitat suitable for house plants, through the automated control of numerous agricultural micro-climatic parameters. Creating multimedia systems such as web platforms, advanced software and app/QR-code for mobile devices, defines the most innovative tools in computer science outreach phases. This experimental approach incorporates the teaching methods that are defined by the curriculum of the "Liceo delle Scienze Applicate" that exists in the School, with the proposition of experimental models that besides being "learning models" can switch into "knowledge models" correlated with scientific and technical-scientific models that exist in the world of research. La Natura non distrugge, che per creare, e non crea, che per distruggere (Storia dell'Astronomia, 1813 - Giacomo Leopardi)
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Measurement of phase function of aerosol at different altitudes by CCD Lidar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Peiyu; Yuan, Ke'e.; Yang, Jie; Hu, Shunxing
2018-02-01
The aerosols near the ground are closely related to human health and climate change, the study on which has important significance. As we all know, the aerosol is inhomogeneous at different altitudes, of which the phase function is also different. In order to simplify the retrieval algorithm, it is usually assumed that the aerosol is uniform at different altitudes, which will bring measurement error. In this work, an experimental approach is demonstrated to measure the scattering phase function of atmospheric aerosol particles at different heights by CCD lidar system, which could solve the problem of the traditional CCD lidar system in assumption of phase function. The phase functions obtained by the new experimental approach are used to retrieve the aerosol extinction coefficient profiles. By comparison of the aerosol extinction coefficient retrieved by Mie-scattering aerosol lidar and CCD lidar at night, the reliability of new experimental approach is verified.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan
2018-01-01
A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.
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Climate change can cause complex responses in Baltic Sea macroalgae: A systematic review
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takolander, Antti; Cabeza, Mar; Leskinen, Elina
2017-05-01
Estuarine macroalgae are important primary producers in aquatic ecosystems, and often foundation species providing structurally complex habitat. Climate change alters many abiotic factors that affect their long-term persistence and distribution. Here, we review the existing scientific literature on the tolerance of key macroalgal species in the Baltic Sea, the world's largest brackish water body. Elevated temperature is expected to intensify coastal eutrophication, further promoting growth of opportunistic, filamentous species, especially green algae, which are often species associated with intensive filamentous algal blooms. Declining salinities will push the distributions of marine species towards south, which may alter the Baltic Sea community compositions towards a more limnic state. Together with increasing eutrophication trends this may cause losses in marine-originating foundation species such as Fucus, causing severe biodiversity impacts. Experimental results on ocean acidification effects on macroalgae are mixed, with only few studies conducted in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that climate change can alter the structure and functioning of macroalgal ecosystems especially in the northern Baltic coastal areas, and can potentially act synergistically with eutrophication. We briefly discuss potential adaptation measures.
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National Centers for Environmental Prediction
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Molina-Perez, Edmundo
It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.
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Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua
2017-01-01
Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. PMID:29099842
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Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua
2017-01-01
Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.
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Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.
2018-03-01
Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.
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Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten
2017-01-01
Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.
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Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Munson, S. M.; Bunting, E.
2017-12-01
Ecosystem transitions and thresholds are conceptually well-defined and have become a framework to address vegetation response to climate change and land-use intensification, yet there are few approaches to define the environmental conditions which can lead to them. We demonstrate a novel climate pivot point approach using long-term monitoring data from a broad network of permanent plots, satellite imagery, and experimental treatments across the southwestern U.S. The climate pivot point identifies conditions that lead to decreased plant performance and serves as an early warning sign of increased vulnerability of crossing a threshold into an altered ecosystem state. Plant responses and climate pivot points aligned with the lifespan and structural characteristics of species, were modified by soil and landscape attributes of a site, and had non-linear dynamics in some cases. Species with strong increases in abundance when water was available were most susceptible to losses during water shortages, reinforcing plant energetic and physiological tradeoffs. Future research to uncover the heterogeneity of plant responses and climate pivot points at multiple scales can lead to greater understanding of shifts in ecosystem productivity and vulnerability to climate change.
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GlobTherm, a global database on thermal tolerances for aquatic and terrestrial organisms.
Bennett, Joanne M; Calosi, Piero; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Martínez, Brezo; Sunday, Jennifer; Algar, Adam C; Araújo, Miguel B; Hawkins, Bradford A; Keith, Sally; Kühn, Ingolf; Rahbek, Carsten; Rodríguez, Laura; Singer, Alexander; Villalobos, Fabricio; Ángel Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio
2018-03-13
How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species' thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.
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Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai
2013-04-26
Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of fieldmore » measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Osmond, B.
2002-05-20
Sixty-four scientists from universities, national laboratories, and other research institutions worldwide met to evaluate the feasibility and potential of the Biosphere2 Laboratory (B2L) as an inclusive multi-user scientific facility (i.e., a facility open to researchers from all institutions, according to agreed principles of access) for earth system studies and engineering research, education, and training relevant to the mission of the United States Department of Energy (DOE).
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The energy performance of prototype holographic glazings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Papamichael, K.; Beltran, L.; Furler, R.; Lee, E. S.; Selkowitz, S.; Rubin, M.
1993-02-01
We report on the simulation of the energy performance of prototype holographic glazings in commercial office buildings in a California climate. These prototype glazings, installed above conventional side windows, are designed to diffract the transmitted solar radiation and reflect it off the ceiling, providing adequate daylight illumination for typical office tasks up to 10m from the window. In this study, we experimentally determined a comprehensive set of solar-optical properties and characterized the contribution of the prototype holographic glazings to workplane illuminance in a scale model of a typical office space. We then used the scale model measurements to simulate the energy performance of the holographic glazings over the course of an entire year for four window orientations (North, East, South and West) for the inland Los Angeles climate, using the DOE-2.lD building energy analysis computer program. The results of our experimental analyses indicate that these prototype holographic glazings diffract only a small fraction of the incident light. The results of this study indicate that these prototype holographic glazings will not save energy in commercial office buildings. Their performance is very similar to that of clear glass, which, through side windows, cannot efficiently illuminate more than a 4-6 m depth of a building's perimeter, because the cooling penalties due to solar heat gain are greater than the electric lighting savings due to daylighting.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao
2016-09-01
Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.
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Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping
2013-01-01
Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.
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Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R
2017-08-01
Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping
2013-01-01
Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182
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Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Weber, Katharina C.; Moryson, Susanne
2018-02-01
Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry ( Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.
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Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany.
Chmielewski, Frank-M; Götz, Klaus-P; Weber, Katharina C; Moryson, Susanne
2018-02-01
Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...
2016-09-28
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less
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Drivers of lignin composition in boreal forest organic soils across a climate gradient
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Myers-Pigg, A.; Kaiser, K.; Benner, R. H.; Ziegler, S. E.
2017-12-01
Lignin diagenesis in soils, including the cumulative effects of degradation and leaching, increases with experimental warming, signifying a potentially important change relevant to soil organic matter accumulation and fate. However, decadal to centennial climatic effects including changes in precipitation, litterfall inputs, and understory sources, on lignin composition are poorly constrained. We examined the lignin content and composition, via cupric oxide oxidation (CuO), within the organic layers of podzolic soils under similar balsam fir forests across a latitudinal climate gradient in Atlantic Canada. By exploring variation in lignin by both soil depth and climate region, this study informs on the climate drivers of lignin stability within boreal forest soil. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed significant variations in common signatures of CuO by-products with depth and/or site, indicating source and/or diagenetic controllers. Importantly, none of these signatures, with the exception of p-hydroxyphenols, exhibited a site by depth interaction indicating a similar degree of diagenetic alternation with depth across climates. The site by depth interaction for p-hydroxyphenols is a result of greater moss input in the northernmost site. To better elucidate this climate-induced source variation on our interpretation of lignin diagenesis, a principle component (PCA) model was built using signatures varying by site (p<0.01). These signatures loaded uniquely with the percentage of wood, needles, and mosses within the L layer in each region. Site differences in this loading indicate that shifts in understory input is a major climate effect controlling lignin composition in these forest soils. A lignin diagenesis PCA model was built using (1) all non-moss related signatures identified in the first PCA model, and (2) scores for additional sites within each region, calculated from modeled lignin composition based on 13C-NMR spectra. The combined results indicate that the lignin diagenetic states among soils is similar, despite the large increase in soil C turnover with climate warming across this transect. Thus our results indicate that shifts in moss contribution, and not increased diagenesis, controls CuO by-products with climate change in these moist boreal forests.
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
2016-01-01
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
2016-09-01
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017-2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018-2020 period.
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Tao, Fulu; Zhang, Zhao; Shi, Wenjiao; Liu, Yujie; Xiao, Dengpan; Zhang, Shuai; Zhu, Zhu; Wang, Meng; Liu, Fengshan
2013-10-01
Based on the crop trial data during 1981-2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981-2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981-2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ER by -0.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_LR by 8.38-9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14-9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_SR by 1.01-3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Bastidas, Wellington; Cóndor, Amparo; Villacís, Marcos; Calderón, Marco; Herrera, Mario; Zambrano, José Luis; Lizaso, Jon; Hernández, Carlos; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Capa-Morocho, Mirian
2016-04-01
Climate change threatens sustainability of farms and associated water resources in Ecuador. Although the last IPCC report (AR5) provides a general framework for adaptation, , impact assessment and especially adaptation analysis should be site-specific, taking into account both biophysical and social aspects. The objective of this study is to analyse the climate change impacts and to sustainable adaptations to optimize the crop yield. Furthermore is also aimed to weave agronomical and hydrometeorological aspects, to improve the modelling of the coastal ("costa") and highland ("sierra") cropping systems in Ecuador, from the agricultural production and water resources points of view. The final aim is to support decision makers, at national and local institutions, for technological implementation of structural adaptation strategies, and to support farmers for their autonomous adaptation actions to cope with the climate change impacts and that allow equal access to resources and appropriate technologies. . A diagnosis of the current situation in terms of data availability and reliability was previously done, and the main sources of uncertainty for agricultural projections have been identified: weather data, especially precipitation projections, soil data below the upper 30 cm, and equivalent experimental protocol for ecophysiological crop field measurements. For reducing these uncertainties, several methodologies are being discussed. This study was funded by PROMETEO program from Ecuador through SENESCYT (M. Ruiz-Ramos contract), and by the project COOP-XV-25 funded by Universidad Politécnica de Madrid.
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Folguera, Guillermo; Bastías, Daniel A; Caers, Jelle; Rojas, José M; Piulachs, Maria-Dolors; Bellés, Xavier; Bozinovic, Francisco
2011-07-01
Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is the increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However, another but poorly studied main characteristic of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values, paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We experimentally tested the effects of environmental temperature variability on characteristics associated to the fitness (body mass balance, growth rate, and survival), metabolic rate (VCO(2)) and molecular traits (heat shock protein expression, Hsp70), in an ectotherm, the terrestrial woodlouse Porcellio laevis. Our general hypotheses are that higher values of thermal amplitude may directly affect life-history traits, increasing metabolic cost and stress responses. At first, results supported our hypotheses showing a diversity of responses among characters to the experimental thermal treatments. We emphasize that knowledge about the cellular and physiological mechanisms by which animals cope with environmental changes is essential to understand the impact of mean climatic change and variability. Also, we consider that the studies that only incorporate only mean temperatures to predict the life-history, ecological and evolutionary impact of global temperature changes present important problems to predict the diversity of responses of the organism. This is because the analysis ignores the complexity and details of the molecular and physiological processes by which animals cope with environmental variability, as well as the life-history and demographic consequences of such variability. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Jin, Zhenong; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Leakey, Andrew D B; Lobell, David B
2018-02-01
Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 ]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process-based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground biomass production at elevated [CO 2 ] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO 2 ]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional-scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO 2 ] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO 2 ] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.
Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F
2013-08-20
Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara
2013-04-01
Analysis of growing volume of related to climate change data from sensors and model outputs requires collaborative multidisciplinary efforts of researchers. To do it timely and in reliable way one needs in modern information-computational infrastructure supporting integrated studies in the field of environmental sciences. Recently developed experimental software and hardware platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) provides required environment for regional climate change related investigations. The platform combines modern web 2.0 approach, GIS-functionality and capabilities to run climate and meteorological models, process large geophysical datasets and support relevant analysis. It also supports joint software development by distributed research groups, and organization of thematic education for students and post-graduate students. In particular, platform software developed includes dedicated modules for numerical processing of regional and global modeling results for consequent analysis and visualization. Also run of integrated into the platform WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, modeling results data preprocessing and visualization is provided. All functions of the platform are accessible by a user through a web-portal using common graphical web-browser in the form of an interactive graphical user interface which provides, particularly, capabilities of selection of geographical region of interest (pan and zoom), data layers manipulation (order, enable/disable, features extraction) and visualization of results. Platform developed provides users with capabilities of heterogeneous geophysical data analysis, including high-resolution data, and discovering of tendencies in climatic and ecosystem changes in the framework of different multidisciplinary researches. Using it even unskilled user without specific knowledge can perform reliable computational processing and visualization of large meteorological, climatic and satellite monitoring datasets through unified graphical web-interface. Partial support of RF Ministry of Education and Science grant 8345, SB RAS Program VIII.80.2 and Projects 69, 131, 140 and APN CBA2012-16NSY project is acknowledged.
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Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D
2015-01-01
Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dana, G. L.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.; Piechota, T.
2008-12-01
The Great Basin is characterized by complex basin and range topography, arid to semiarid climate, and a history of sensitivity to climate change. Mountain areas comprise about 10% of the landscape, yet are the areas of highest precipitation and generate 85% of groundwater recharge and most surface runoff. These characteristics provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of climate change. The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision "to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders." Six major strategies are proposed to develop infrastructure needs and attain our vision: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change at a regional and sub-regional scale(Climate Modeling Component) 2) Analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Assess effects on human systems and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Train teachers and students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). Two new climate observational transects will be established across Great Basin Ranges, one anticipated on a mountain range in southern Nevada and the second to be located in north-central Nevada. Climatic, hydrologic and ecological data from these transects will be downloaded into high capacity data storage units and made available to researchers through creation of the Nevada climate change portal. Our research will aim to answer two interdisciplinary science questions key to understanding the effects of future climate change on Great Basin mountain ecosystems and the potential management strategies for responding to these changes: 1) How will climate change affect water resources and linked ecosystem resources and human systems? And 2) How will climate change affect disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, insect outbreaks, droughts) and linked systems? Infrastructure developed through this project will provide new interdisciplinary capability to detect, analyze, and model effects of regional climate change in mountainous regions of the west and provide a major contribution to existing climate change research and monitoring networks.
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Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne
In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less
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Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts
Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne
2015-09-14
In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less
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Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.
2012-12-01
It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).
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Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Plante, Alain F; Enkhmandal, Orsoo; Gonneau, Cédric; Casper, Brenda B; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Petraitis, Peter S
2016-05-01
Globally, soil respiration is one of the largest fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere and is known to be sensitive to climate change, representing a potential positive feedback. We conducted a number of field experiments to study independent and combined impacts of topography, watering, grazing and climate manipulations on bare soil and vegetated soil (i.e., ecosystem) respiration in northern Mongolia, an area known to be highly vulnerable to climate change and overgrazing. Our results indicated that soil moisture is the most important driving factor for carbon fluxes in this semi-arid ecosystem, based on smaller carbon fluxes under drier conditions. Warmer conditions did not result in increased respiration. Although the system has local topographical gradients in terms of nutrient, moisture availability and plant species, soil respiration responses to OTC treatments were similar on the upper and lower slopes, implying that local heterogeneity may not be important for scaling up the results. In contrast, ecosystem respiration responses to OTCs differed between the upper and the lower slopes, implying that the response of vegetation to climate change may override microbial responses. Our results also showed that light grazing may actually enhance soil respiration while decreasing ecosystem respiration, and grazing impact may not depend on climate change. Overall, our results indicate that soil and ecosystem respiration in this semi-arid steppe are more sensitive to precipitation fluctuation and grazing pressure than to temperature change.
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Wang, Guoyan; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Yang, Xuejun; Liu, Guofang; Ye, Xuehua; Zhang, Xinshi; Huang, Zhenying
2018-06-21
Much research has focused on plant responses to ongoing climate change, but there is relatively little information about how climate change will affect the early plant life history stages. Understanding how global warming and changes in winter snow pattern will affect seed germination and seedling establishment is crucial for predicting future alpine population and vegetation dynamics. In a 2-year study, we tested how warming and alteration in the snowmelt regime, both in isolation and combination, influence seedling emergence phenology, first-year growth, biomass allocation, and survival of four native alpine perennial herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Warming promoted seedling emergence phenology of all four species and biomass per plant of two species but reduced seedling survival of three species. Prolonged snow cover partly mediated the affects of warming on Primula alpicola (survival and biomass), Pedicularis fletcheri (phenology, biomass, and root:shoot ratio) and Meconopsis integrifolia (survival). For the narrowly distributed species M. racemosa, seedling growth was additively decreased by warming and prolonged snow cover. Both warming and alteration of the snow cover regime can influence plant recruitment by affecting seedling phenology, growth, and survival, and the effects are largely species-specific. Thus, climate change is likely to affect population dynamics and community structure of the alpine ecosystem. This is the first experimental demonstration of the phenological advancement of seedling emergence in the field by simulated climate warming. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.
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Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Plante, Alain F.; Enkhmandal, Orsoo; Gonneau, Cédric; Casper, Brenda B.; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Petraitis, Peter S.
2017-01-01
Globally, soil respiration is one of the largest fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere and is known to be sensitive to climate change, representing a potential positive feedback. We conducted a number of field experiments to study independent and combined impacts of topography, watering, grazing and climate manipulations on bare soil and vegetated soil (i.e., ecosystem) respiration in northern Mongolia, an area known to be highly vulnerable to climate change and overgrazing. Our results indicated that soil moisture is the most important driving factor for carbon fluxes in this semi-arid ecosystem, based on smaller carbon fluxes under drier conditions. Warmer conditions did not result in increased respiration. Although the system has local topographical gradients in terms of nutrient, moisture availability and plant species, soil respiration responses to OTC treatments were similar on the upper and lower slopes, implying that local heterogeneity may not be important for scaling up the results. In contrast, ecosystem respiration responses to OTCs differed between the upper and the lower slopes, implying that the response of vegetation to climate change may override microbial responses. Our results also showed that light grazing may actually enhance soil respiration while decreasing ecosystem respiration, and grazing impact may not depend on climate change. Overall, our results indicate that soil and ecosystem respiration in this semi-arid steppe are more sensitive to precipitation fluctuation and grazing pressure than to temperature change. PMID:28239190
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Multiple climate drivers accelerate Arctic plant community senescence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.
2015-12-01
Alteration of seasonal phenology cues due to climate change has led to changes in the onset and duration of the growing season. While photoperiod often acts as an ultimate control on phenological events, recent studies have shown that environmental cues such as temperature and soil water content can modify the direction and rate of senescence processes. Warmer temperatures have resulted in an observed trend towards delayed senescence across temperate latitudes. However, Arctic regions are characterized by extreme seasonality and rapidly decreasing photoperiod, and consequently senescence may not shift as climate warms. We monitored the timing of Arctic plant community senescence for three years under the framework of an experimental manipulation that altered seasonal phenological cues through warming and earlier snowmelt. Alternative models of senescence were tested to determine if microclimate (air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture) or start of season phenology affect the timing and rate of community senescence. We found that all three microclimate predictors contributed to explaining variation in timing of senescence, suggesting that photoperiod is not the sole control on timing of senescence in Arctic plant communities. Rather, increased air and soil temperatures along with drier soil conditions, led to acceleration in the onset of senescence at a community level. Our data suggest that (1) multiple climate drivers predict timing of plant community senescence, and (2) climate change could result in a shorter peak season due to earlier onset of senescence, which would decrease the potential carbon uptake in moist acidic tundra.
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Frederick A. Bierlmaler; Arthur McKee
1989-01-01
This report describes the primary meteorological station at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (elev. 426 m, lat. 44°15' N., long. 122°10' W.) in the Willamette National Forest, the automatic digital data logger, sensors, and data-processing procedures used in measuring air temperature, dewpoint temperature, windspeed, precipitation, and solar radiation....
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Hongqing Wang; Joseph D. Cornell; Charles A.S. Hall; David P. Marley
2002-01-01
We developed a spatially-explicit version of the CENTURY soil model to characterize the storage and flux of soil organic carbon (SOC, 0â30 cm depth) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico as a function of climate, vegetation, and soils. The model was driven by monthly estimates of average air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration...
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Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models.
Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J
2015-06-01
Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Foreman, Brady Z; Straub, Kyle M
2017-09-01
Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 10 4 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation.
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Carbon Pools in a Temperate Heathland Resist Changes in a Future Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ambus, P.; Reinsch, S.; Nielsen, P. L.; Michelsen, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Mikkelsen, T. N.
2014-12-01
The fate of recently plant assimilated carbon was followed into ecosystem carbon pools and fluxes in a temperate heathland after a 13CO2 pulse in the early growing season in a 6-year long multi-factorial climate change experiment. Eight days after the pulse, recently assimilated carbon was significantly higher in storage organs (rhizomes) of the grass Deschampsia flexuosa under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Experimental drought induced a pronounced utilization of recently assimilated carbon belowground (roots, microbes, dissolved organic carbon) potentially counterbalancing limited nutrient availability. The fate of recently assimilated carbon was not affected by moderate warming. The full factorial combination of elevated CO2, warming and drought simulating future climatic conditions as expected for Denmark in 2075 did not change short-term carbon turnover significantly compared to ambient conditions. Overall, climate factors interacted in an unexpected way resulting in strong resilience of the heathland in terms of short-term carbon turnover in a future climate.
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Foreman, Brady Z.; Straub, Kyle M.
2017-01-01
Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 104 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation. PMID:28924607
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Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.
Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J
2008-08-01
There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.
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Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.
2014-12-01
Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.
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Amelotti, I; Catalá, S S; Gorla, D E
2014-06-01
Among peridomestic structures, chicken coops are sites of major importance for the domestic ecology of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae). The aim of this study was to evaluate in an experimental context the effects of a cypermethrin pour-on formulation applied to chickens on blood intake, moulting and mortality in T. infestans, under the natural climatic conditions of a region endemic for Chagas' disease. Experimental chicken huts were made of bricks and covered with plastic mosquito nets. Ninety fourth-instar nymphs were maintained in each hut. The study used a completely random design in which chickens in the experimental group were treated with a cypermethrin pour-on formulation. Five replicates (= huts) of the experimental and control groups were conducted. The number of live T. infestans, blood intake and moults to fifth-instar stage were recorded at 1, 5, 20, 35 and 45 days after the application of cypermethrin. Cumulative mortality was higher in nymphs exposed to treated chickens (> 71%) than in control nymphs (< 50%) (P < 0.01). Blood intake and moulting rate were lower in nymphs fed on treated chickens than in control nymphs (P < 0.05). Pour-on cypermethrin was able to cause significant mortality, although it did not eliminate the experimental population of T. infestans. © 2013 The Royal Entomological Society.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna
The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.
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Skerfving, Annemi; Johansson, Fredrik; Elgán, Tobias H
2014-01-24
Support groups for children in troubled families are available in a majority of Swedish municipalities. They are used as a preventive effort for children in families with different parental problems such as addiction to alcohol/other drugs, mental illness, domestic violence, divorce situations, or even imprisonment. Children from families with these problems are a well-known at-risk group for various mental health and social problems. Support groups aim at strengthening children's coping behaviour, to improve their mental health and to prevent a negative psycho-social development. To date, evaluations using a control-group study design are scarce. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the effects of support groups. This paper describes the design of an effectiveness study, initially intended as a randomized controlled trial, but instead is pursued as a quasi-experimental study using a non-randomized control group. The aim is to include 116 children, aged 7-13 years and one parent/another closely related adult, in the study. Participants are recruited via existing support groups in the Stockholm county district and are allocated either into an intervention group or a waiting list control group, representing care as usual. The assessment consists of questionnaires that are to be filled in at baseline and at four months following the baseline. Additionally, the intervention group completes a 12-month follow-up. The outcomes include the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ S11-16), the Kids Coping Scale, the "Ladder of life" which measures overall life satisfaction, and "Jag tycker jag är" (I think I am) which measures self-perception and self-esteem. The parents complete the SDQ P4-16 (parent-report version) and the Swedish scale "Familjeklimat" (Family Climate), which measures the emotional climate in the family. There is a need for evaluating the effects of support groups targeted to children from troubled families. This quasi-experimental study therefore makes an important contribution to this novel field of research. In the article various problems related to pursuing a study with children at risk are discussed. ISRCTN52310507.